text:
Let us pause for a second for a moment of self-acknowledgement: in 2011, I joined Phillies Nation after years of running a lightly traffic'ed blog about the Phillies and music, while posting pictures of Greek Yogurt and other healthy foods I was convinced I was going to try to incorporate into my daily diet. After a few months analyzing the performance of the likes of Michael Schwimer and writing fluffy pieces about John Bowker, I wrote a speculative-but-factually-grounded piece that prompted much discussion : "What If" The Platoon Works at First Base?
For those who don't remember, the piece functioned around the idea that a combination of John Mayberry, Laynce Nix, Jim Thome, and Ty Wigginton could not only match Howard's 2011 production but outperform his production. The piece drew up a lot of good discussion and was based on the assumption that a true platoon, which Charlie Manuel was unlikely to put together, could put together a line close to .280/.380/.550.
To say quite a few things happened last year would be an understatement. Let's reflect.
A few things:
– I was way off on that triple-slash line. According to FanGraphs, Phillies first basemen not named Howard hit .241/.314/.416 with 21 HR and 78 RBI in 534 PA.
– Yet, even though I was not even in the ballpark with that triple-slash line, it was better than or equal to the line Howard put up in 2012: .219/.295/.423 in 292 PA.
– Howard would have likely eclipsed the HR and RBI total (25 HR, 102 RBI) had he reached the plate 534 times, yet the RBI number is a tough number to project because the majority of the first base AB's from players other than Howard came from the six hole while Howard hit in the four spot. As usual, Howard would have benefited from more opportunities to drive in runners because of advantageous line-up positioning. To be completely fair, Howard drove in runners at a ~7% better clip than Wigginton did in 2012 based on opportunities.
With all this in mind, I'm willing to call last year's "What If" a draw: Howard's replacements did outperform Howard in 2012, but as anticipated in the original projection, Manuel did not properly use a platoon. Granted, this was not entirely his fault: Thome was not in appropriate health to execute the platoon on his end and Nix was injured about a month into the season after a hot start as the fourth outfielder meaning there was effectively no lefty to use. Also, Howard was particularly bad, worse than anyone could have projected, in part because at the time of the writing, we had not yet known of the infection in the gash of his ankle.
The Phillies were 28th in the Majors last year in production from first base according to FanGraphs last season, with their skeleton crew earning them -0.8 wins from the position, narrowly trumping the Royals and Indians but getting less production than the Marlins (Logan Morrison, Carlos Lee, and Gabby Sanchez), the Mariners (Mike Carp and Justin Smoak), and the pretty average six man revolving door the Astros had in place at first.
Howard likely will not be nearly as bad as he was last season, but there is a lot to consider when assessing the Phillies first base situation for 2013. Howard's triple-slash lines have decreased every year in every category since his very good (4.6 fWAR) 2009, meaning that he was likely in a state of decline even before he blew his Achilles. Yet, if Howard is even worth 1 win in 2013, it would be a net win gain of 2 wins for the Phillies in 2013 at a time when wins become increasingly valuable for the club chasing the second Wild Card.
While Howard's age, 33, and declining performance may be scary, there is reason to believe he could contribute to a two-win swing in 2013. To provide the Phillies a net two wins in 2013, Howard would have to play at a level comparable to 2012 seasons by Michael Cuddyer, Justin Mourneau, or Carlos Pena. Mourneau and Cuddyer are better comparable because they have similar defensive and base running deficiencies whereas Pena still plays a fine first base.
Mourneau hit .267/.333/.440 with 19 HR and Cuddyer hit .260/.317/.489 with 16 HR – this is the benchmark Howard likely has to reach to earn the Phillies one win over replacement, a net gain of two from last season. Is this possible? Absolutely. In fact, if healthy, Howard may be able to produce a season similar to Ike Davis's 2012 (.227/.308/.462 with 32 HR, 90 RBIs) which was worth 1.6 wins according to FanGraphs, which would be a net gain of about three wins for the Phillies.
Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley wrote a very nice piece with a moderate solution to optimizing the Phillies roster: use Howard for 115-125 games at first base to both conserve his health and improve production at first base, focusing more of his time against righties and relieving him some of the time against lefties. With Mayberry and Ruf on the roster, use a pinch runner in the later stages of close games to replace Howard if he gets on and/or replace with Mayberry or Ruf once a team goes to a tough lefty, assuming Chase Utley and Howard will hit 3 and 4.
The biggest and easiest example to follow from Baer's piece was the following: Howard had a platoon advantage (faced a righty) of 64% of the time in 2012. Eric Chavez of the Yankees had a platoon advantage (faced righties) of 87.5%. If Howard's appearances were adjusted in such a manner, the following would be likely to occur according to Baer:
The following formula is used to convert wOBA to runs:
( ( Player wOBA – League average wOBA ) / wOBA scale ) * Plate Appearances
- Normal use
- vs. RHP: ( ( .370 – .315 ) / 1.245 ) * 250 = 11.0 runs
- vs. LHP: ( ( .310 – .315 ) / 1.245 ) * 150 = -0.6 runs
- Total: 10.4 runs
- Platoon-focused use
- vs. RHP: ( ( .370 – .315 ) / 1.245 ) * 340 = 18.7 runs
- vs. LHP: ( ( .310 – .315 ) / 1.245 ) * 60 = -0.3 runs
- Total: 18.4 runs
The difference is about eight runs, or nearly one win.
In a lot of ways, I agree with Baer's conclusion that while Howard will never come close to reproducing 2006 again, he can provide value as he regresses to his mean production of 2010-11 (1.4 and 1.7 WAR respectively). A 1.7 win season would be a 2.9 win increase from 2012 from Howard and an exciting contribution to a team on the periphery of the second Wild Card.
91 Comments
Ian, we all know that Howard should rarely be allowed to face lefthanded pitching, but what player making his kind of money has ever been put into a platoon? There is no organization paying a guy $25 million a season to be a part time guy – even if he's on the better side of the platoon. It's an admission that they made a huge mistake.
I agree completely.
Quite coincidentally Ian, I wrote to Bill Baer just this morning in response to something he wrote on Friday, and suggested it would be unwise for him or anyone else to hold their breath waiting for the Phillies to platoon him. They won't even pinch hit for him against lefty relievers, let alone platoon him.
All we can do is hope Ryan Howard can return to previous form. It could happen, two new hitting coaches in his ear, Henderson and Joyner, and he looks healthy, slimmed down some. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
Good article, Ian! To think Ryan Howard has the 3rd highest paid annual contract in MLB behind A-Rod & Pujols is outrageous. Howard is a one dimensional player who can not hit LHP's after 7 years in MLB & will never win a 'Gold Glove" and clogs the basepaths.
So the IAN number is 3?
Anyone else for the over/under?
I'm expecting and hoping for big things from the Big Piece this year! He has a lot to prove especially with that big contract. If he stays healthy, he has to produce better than Mourneau or Cuddyer! Plus, his presence in the lineup makes others around him more productive as well which is one thing that this article fails to mention!!
"He has a lot to prove especially with that big contract"
I'll simplify my response to that to this. If I were a player no matter how large a contract I had, I don't feel like I'd have to justify it. I'd play to win, for my teammates, my family, probably the fans, but above any and all play fors, I'd play to maintain the addiction of success and greatness that evolved out of a lifelong dominance at my game that led to the money in the first place.
The money aspect of sports is so separate of what happens on the playing surface. If Howard puts up failing numbers, I doubt his comment at a press gathering would be" I feel bad because I didn't live up to my contract." It is so secondary from the player perspective (I would think).
I choose to look at the Howard situation positively. Particularly since I have a hard time envisioning a world of difference in his playing time. Utilizing Ruf/Mayberry (assuming they both make the roster) as late inning depth as mentioned is fine, and perhaps realistic, but I'd prefer to think that since adjustments start in your 2nd career at bat, and end in your last one, with fresh voices in the hitting coach positionS, asnd back to healthy (certainly healthier), there's room to watch for an uptick in performance off some base numbers that were prorated productive last year.
I am also not as quick to agree with the rampant thought of the Phils reducing Howard's time based on pay. I believe that if they didn't believe in the guy, and other holes weren't more in need of solution, it'd be more of a priority. That's now. When that achillies popped, there went the possibility of an off season trade, which I thought better than 50-50 would happen. But as it stands now, the club needs him pretty badly, and he has more ability to answer that challenge than a number of other people you could call on to answer that challenge.
I'd descrobe that as my position through mid June.
Ken even before the Achilles i think they would had a extreme tough time trading him. I understand you did the use the word possibility. Ryan is here to stay besides his declining #'s that huge contract. will make it tough to move him. However i see what you trying to say the small possibility just got a whole lot smaller once he tore his Achilles,
I agree. The better than 50-50 (guess, with zero insight) was if the achillies didn't go, to Milwaukee to replace Fielder. And it might not be Ruben's style to pick up portions of contracts, killing even a small chance of a deal. That was just one of MAYBE a scarcity of situations where the contract MIGHT have been movable.
But, that was then, this is now. Might as well hope for the best since RyHo's here. And it isn't impossible he can do some good things where it's not expected.
With respect to Howard's "declining numbers", I just want to point out that in each of the following years, he was essentially the same hitter:
2008: .251/.339/.543 (120 wRC+, 125 OPS+)
2010: .276/.353/.505 (127 wRC+, 127 OPS+)
2011: .253/.346/.488 (124 wRC+, 126 OPS+)
Whether he had more runners on base when he came to bat is beyond his control.
The question of decline comes down to whether one believes 2012 was due to real and dramatic decline not seen previously, or whether it was due to his injury (my opinion).
What about his wOBA? Looks like a relatively clean decline to me, not precipitous, but still a decline, at least when using LW.
06 – .436
09 – .392
10 – .368
11 – .355
12 – .303
True, but the league-wide offense has been going down as well, due to less prevalence of PEDs, or better pitching, or what have you.
wRC+ and OPS+ adjust for that.
Interesting. Why doesn't FG use actual graphs for those numbers?
Thanks hk but no, I look at those all the time. It's fun to do player comparisons ( I have no life)
I meant for the ones Schmenkman used – wRC+ ( I love that one) and OPS+.
lefty do you remember back in 2010. a series in washington where howard went into second and hurt his ankle. at the time he was hitting pretty good, but after that he struggled. and i really think that it carried over into the 2011 season and culminated in that horrible achille injury. now with that said, and if he really is healthy, then i don't see any reason for him not to regain some semblance of his old self. the only thing i worry about is he is now 33 and along the way he's picked up some bad habits. hitting wise that is. also he has struggled with frustration by not having a legitimit # 5 hitter behind him. personally i don't think that matters cause if you're a good patient hitter (see chooch) it shouldn't wiegh on you. but i think mentally it can wreck some people. you know trying to do something you can't do out of frustration, like swinging at a ball 3 feet out of the zone. ( see pence) you try to do too much and you get away from your game. it's pretty simple. you would think if gross was away at all last year he would have said something. i guess they didn't want to wake him.
Ryne, My memory isn't that great but I think that was the one when he was trying to get back to second, not going into second. But I agree that was a setback, at the time.
I don't think we can say whether it led to the achilles a year later, but what would I know, I only play a doctor on TV. 🙂
As far as your frustration, I feel it too sometimes. I'm hoping the two new hitting coaches will be able to turn him back into the monster he once was, that would be SO great!
I keep hearing about his age and think there were a lot of guys that played very well into their late 30's, it's not impossible.
agreed schmenkman.
But the REAL question is ……… Just what does Andrew from Waldorf think??
Are you kidding me. Just what I thought. This blog is about 7 or 8 guys having a discussion. Of all the points I've made in the last 6 month, I rarely get a response. Well here are some points. The Phil's have to do something now to change their philosophy going forward. It does not take long to rebuild a farm system. If their not in it at the break, if Howard, utley or any other high salary older player is having a good year, trade them for prospects, even if we have to pay most of the salary. The team needs changes and that is never popular. Baseball players most success seems to come before age 32 or 33. There are exceptions. No matter what, I would play ruf for a full season. I think he's going to surprise the so called experts. If the Phil's do go younger, instead of getting frustrated, it'll be fun watching young talent
If Utley & Halladay prove to be somewhat healthy and productive, there's a pretty good chance that they'll be traded at the deadline. Howard would be almost impossible to move though. This is assuming (which I do) that the team is pretty much hanging around the .500 mark again this season.
For what it's worth, I recall reading a few of your posts recently. I almost responded to one, on the Baseball Prospectus division predictions, but found my thoughts leaning toward a circular reply, and chose not to. And you replied to a comment I made on one of the Why I Love the Phillies that wasn't a topic I chose to pursue, or I might have. I'm just explaining my own reasons for havuing not replied, if you wanna hear from select, or others, that's between you and then.
I say with confidence Chuck was kidding. Andrew's his own man, and doesn't take this stuff life and death seriously, which from my own perception, some people on the board do. So it was sort of a poke at Andrew. That doesn't mean that Andrew has less respected instincts about the Phils and the sport than others who take a different approach. Personally, I like him significantly more, but that's personal choice. That's my perception, subjects mentioned might disagree, but the board is more about discussing topics than quality of posters in my view, which only matters to me.
To your point, mid year failed season certainly invites dealing. I agree there. But specifically, some guys you can't trade. You can't pay millions of Howard's deal. That effects budget and lux tax. Chase is a free agent, you could, same with Doc. Those are facts, not wants. But in a general sense, I don't know that any right thinking person would disagree on moving players for prospects. If it's a lousy first half. And if it's clear that the team is out of it. But in this expected muddled mess, don't count on it. If that even happens.
Great analysis, Ian. I'd like to see Howard produce: .263 BA, 67 BB, 125 RBIs, 34 HRs, 3.2 PAs/K or better with defense similar to his career average. What fWAR would that produce?
Between 2.0 and 2.5.
Sounds like a reasonable estimate as far as WAR is concerned; for Howard, I'd lean toward the lower end of that… 2.0 WAR this year (for him) looks right, that's +3 form last year… 84 wins for the Phils from just Howard alone. Now onto Halladay & Utley projections.
We all bow down to Andrew – knows all,sees all can predict the future – able to leap tall buildings – noops, a different cartoon character, sorry!
Watch it Brooks
The Phils are in first place still.
Things may get ugly.
A little bird told me you were asking for me Chuck.
Teams have and do bench thier biggest salaries. The Giants in 2010 beat the Phillies and won the world series by benching Rowand and Zito.
It can happen. Funny that in a laid back town like SF it is accepted and done but here it will be much more difficult.
I can only think the Giants and thier management want to win more. And the phillies are more into pleasing thier fans ( selling tickets and tee-shirts) than winning.
The article touches on it all. The decline was evident before the achilles injury. You have a GM and a manager who put no value on taking walks. Being patient and being a good hitter.
Mark this down if he took 125-150 walks this year his OPS would once agian be at 950-1000.
But he wont because everyone wants him to swing away and be a hero.
When everyone ( minus me) wants that. Its what they get.
When your clean up hitter is the 30th ranked first baseman in any publcation it speaks volumes for your over all line up and specificly that player.
As for facing left handed pitching. Again if the team wanted to win games it wouldnt happen very often. Particulaily in late inning situation when yuo see teams intentionaly pitch around the line up to get to Howard and then bring in a left handed reliever.
Summing up for Chuck.
Odds are pretty heavy that the decline will continue.
Old guys with health issues and holes in thier swings tend to fade away not get better.
But it is only February.
Anything can happen.
I hope he hits 70 homers with a 1.200 OPS and the Phils win 110 games and a world series.
But as always I have to analyze things honestly and objectively.
Faithfully submitted Feruary 18th, 2013
Andrew from Waldorf
by request from Chuck A.
Someone has really got to cage that little bird!
WARNING, Andrew: Howard had NO off-season in 2011 into 2012 after going down, so it stands to reason that he'll bounce back no matter what. Yes, there's always the chance he fails, but I'd bet against that. I don't think he'll produce like he did back in 2008-2009, but .250 BA with 75 BB, 100+ RBIs and 32+ HRs will be great production from him considering where he's been at since signing the extension. Of course, that is not production worth 20-25 million bucks a year.
Uhhhh.. Frank – Just so you know, my comment above was one of a sarcastic nature. AFW grates on us all with his constant bashing of Howard, so I couldn't help but putting out a little jab. THAT'S what prompted my comment
That said, thanks for joining us Andrew. …
…"I can only think the Giants and thier management want to win more. And the phillies are more into pleasing thier fans ( selling tickets and tee-shirts) than winning."
Now there's a good one.
Now Chuck.
When you say us all you are speaking for alot of people.
I dont consider it bashing.
I consider it a legitimate interpretation of a career.
I do sometimes paint it in a certain way. But there are fans who still think hes a premier power hitter and the most feared hitter in the game.
Come on now.
Chuck A I do wish you and Howard the best in 2013. Ill be around more in the reg season. As I am wathcing every game.
I am focused on RAJ now.
What he has done is the stuff that sets a franchise back for a decade. Not just years.
If we go into 2014 minus RAJ it will have been a positive 2013
So if they win and he stays its good. If they suck and hes fired. Thats good.
Its a win win Chuck my friend.
Thanks again for the shout out.
Your friend,
Always Positive Andrew from Waldorf
Next time your found, with your chin on the ground
There a lot to be learned, so look around
Just what makes that little old ant
Think hell move that rubber tree plant
Anyone knows an ant, cant
Move a rubber tree plant
But he's got high hopes, he's got high hopes
Hes got high apple pie, in the sky hopes
So any time your gettin low
Stead of lettin go
Just remember that ant
Oops there goes another rubber tree plant
When troubles call, and your backs to the wall
There a lot to be learned, that wall could fall
Once there was a silly old ram
Thought he'd punch a hole in a dam
No one could make that ram, scram
He kept buttin that dam
Cause he had high hopes, he had high hopes
He had high apple pie, in the sky hopes
So any time your feelin bad
Stead of feelin sad
Just remember that ram
Oops there goes a billion kilowatt dam
All problems just a toy balloon
They'll be bursted soon
They're just bound to go pop
Oops there goes another problem kerplop
I truly believe that Andrew from Waldorf is akin to Walt Whitman, in many, many ways. Keep up the entertaining chat.
Andrew's hitting the Jack Daniels a little early today.
The fact that we're hoping for a +1 win season from Howard (our No.4 hitter who gets paid like the very best in the game) is depressing.
One note on the example given. I suppose it's obvious, but the example shows 250 PAs vs. RHPs in the "normal use" case, and 340 PAs in the "platoon focused" case. It's the increase in PAs vs. RHPs that allows him to generate more offense (18.4 vs. 10.4 runs).
This may be do-able per 400 of Howard's PAs, but over a full season obviously Howard can't get any more PAs vs. RHPs than he would in the normal use case.
Also, I just noticed that the math doesn't quite work:
(.370-.315)/1.245 * 250 PAs does indeed work out to 11.0 runs
but the same formula with 340 PAs only comes out to 15.0 runs, unless I'm missing something.
This wouldn't change the conclusion that Howard's rate stats would benefit from facing fewer lefties, but the benefit would be about 4.3 runs per 400 PAs rather than 8 per 400.
I couldn't figure those figures out, either. It seemed impossible to get more ABs facing righthanders only than he would get facing righties and lefties both. Seemed to me he'd just get fewer overall ABs.
I'm feeling pretty lazy today, though, so I didn't bring it up. I'm glad somebody did.
Steve you can add Rollins to the mix as well. Still one of the better SS in league.
If you're referring to trading him, he's got that 5 and 10 protection. Chase falls short on the 10, and Doc fallas short on the 5 part.
If it comes to that
Hey Frank, join in the discussion anytime man, we're not an exclusive club here. The more the mer… well, on second thought I guess we're not always so merry here, but you get the idea. Just keep on commenting man, you'll get responses, sometimes you may not love em so much, but you'll get em 🙂
I can't speak for anyone else, but I happen to think this is a really fine community with a sharp, witty and friendly commentariat. I've never read a person that posts here that I didn't like.
Just thought I'd respond to Franks' comments just to prove all your points, Lefty.
Frank, you're a #@%&* idiot!!
Just kidding, of course!
Perfect, Too funny! My vote for comment of the year so far.
Your right Ken…
I am getting a little tired of these WAR stats being put out there as if they were gospel. I think the WAR stuff is pretty bogus. Every play in the field is different , every team is different. The combo of players on each team is different. AND PITCHING is the name of the game. Luck is a big factor as baseball watchers see. How often have you seen a lucky hit get a hitter on a roll and get a team on a roll. This due to personality and psychological factors that last year's WAR cannot predict. If you could use WAR to predict anything from the previous year stats, then the Phils won the NL East last year. NEWS FLASH- they didn't.
Very true. Baseball is about pitching and luck/chemisttry/momentum. Of course it helps to hit and play smart. If your pitching gets you to the playoffs, then you need luck and momentum. Look at the a's last year. They had pitching and momentum. That's it. I'll bet they aren't even a 500 team this year. Of course, I could be totally wrong.
I'll bet they aren't even a 500 team this year. Of course, I could be totally wrong."
Ya gotta love that of course, clause. Charlie Finley would roll over his grave if he saw such a pessimistic view of the '13 nee Philly A's.
Shame I can't recall the spring prognostics for the 1970 Mets, but when young pitching emerges, it shouldn't be taken lightly. Parker is the real deal, Anderson and Milone round out a top 3 that explains in arrears why the A's were not the surprise of a year ago they appeared to be. Add to that the acquisition of Lowrie, this rookie Josh Donaldson shoring up the left side of the infield, and the A's should be pretty good.
The way I figure it, the Rangers, who in honor of last September have changed their logo to a choke icon won't be better than a year ago, the Angels have shored up their pen, but the starting pitching is a little iffy, and A's have added some 18 games to their schedule against Houston. I'd also guess there is a better chance of some regression by Mike Trout (baseball gods strike me dead for that, but that's my feeling) compared to Yoenis Cespedes.
I believe you'll see the A's in contention through the year, and I'd say 85-90 wins might well be a very reasonable goal.
Of course, Ken, you could be totally wrong…
You certainly don't need stats to enjoy the game. And if you do use stats, you need to know what they mean and what their limitations are. For example WAR is a descriptive stat, it says what happened in the past. It's up to the reader to determine whether WAR will rise or fall, based on other factors, and even then, no stat can predict injuries, luck, etc. Having said all that, I don't think any single stat summarizes a player's past contributions better than WAR.
Nice straw man argument. Who claimed WAR was gospel? WAR attempts to do something that very few other stats do, namely combine offense, defense and base-running into one descriptive statistic. Whether you believe WAR succeeds or not is up to you, but in the past (at least the last time I checked), teams' cumulative WAR had a pretty high correlation to their wins.
I don't think anyone has claimed WAR as gospel, but I do believe that some fans approach it as if it was pretty close to the word of God. That's their own problem, of course.
Applying these ideas to Ryan Howard, I think he's a case where baserunning skills are less important, so his value, to me at least, may exceed what certain others might think. And I also believe his defensive numbers suffered tremendously from his Achilles injury, and will probably prove adequate in 2013. I do wish he could somehow figure out lefties, but I think his overall production will be just fine. Even in years when he's supposedly slipped, he's been pretty productive, and until his bat speed diminishes substantially, I see no reason for a healthy Howard to be anything different.
In a number of instances, I don't know that the "problem" is WAR itself, but while it's believers don't represent a different collective personality than any other demographic, I often find the conveyed personality of some WAR type followers to be what I'd describe as some word that describes a type with whom I wouldn't care to share a baseball experience with. Sam Donnellon wrote a recent column on the subject that I thought raised some good points.
lmao no, that is not a good article at all.
The article was superbly terrific. It drew your insightful comment.
Sam's unintended mission accomplished.
I'm with you on this one. One funny thing about that article is that the "advanced" statistic with which Donnellon seemed to have the biggest problem was ERA (when talking about Jack Morris).
With what points that Donnellon made did you agree?
Before reading any comments I think you are missing a big variable in Howard's performance. He has not been healthy since his ankle injury 2 years ago and with limited action last year and the proper amount of time for Achilles to heal he will more productive this year. His MVP numbers probably not but .265 35-40HR 120-130 RBIs is not out of the question
Some people say that Howard has a lot to prove and that he needs to live up to his contract.
To that I say: nonsense. He's not the one who initiated the extension; that's on Amaro.
We don't always (often?) agree, but I'm with you 100% on this. I wish that fans would understand what you wrote, but unfortunately, many will boo him if he doesn't return to his 2009 form. I'd be happy if he returns to his 2011 form.
I also completely agree.
Complete agreement on this also. I love Howard, glad that he's a Phillie. I would have been very happy if he would have signed on for some sort of extension… but NOT BEFORE IT WAS NECESSARY. I'm an Amaro supporter, some have even called me an apologist. That's fine and I accept that. But giving him that extension WHEN HE DID made no….ZERO….sense to me.
Now….all that said…who knows. Maybe at the end of it all it (the contract) will end up being a bargain(???). I certainly wouldn't want to be an Angels fan and have to face that Pujols contract everyday.
Not a fan of WAR… thinking, "Really, what is it good for?" You could even say f-WAR but that would get you nowhere because fWAR is just Fangraphs way of differentiating their WAR from the other guys. Gritting your teeth yet? Your JAWS starting to hurt? You ready to swing for contact? Starting to growl and "RAR" like a dinosaur? Maybe you should just relax and play a little COD Black OPS, which has been improved by a second version (you could call it Black OPS+, if you want, but the kids are calling it Black OPS II). Wait a minute… now you're really getting mad, ready to WHIP me into a pulp. You should try an ativan, taken with oxygen, wOBA, if you will (with Oxygen Breathing Apparatus). This whole SABER stats ERA is just maddening and frankly, my PA thinks it's crazy. Me, I think it's funnny. I laugh about it so much that my AB's hurt but then again, I'm a straight up G and my PO says that I shouldn't laugh at other people's problems (oddly enough, OPP Is not a baseball acronym). SO… I'll end on this… I'll walk away before I get slugged (my walk rate is certainly higher than RyHo's, right?)… OCP, Out.
Nicely done.
Although Howard's walk rate is probably higher than you think (62nd out of 230 since 2010). Not that I don't wish it were much higher.
I think that some stats are more important than others OBP vs batting average for example but WAR is the way to go and has been proven to be the most consistent with how a team/certain player actually performs. I do agree that people get a little too crazy about it sometimes and it is by far no replacement to physically watching players play the game.
For some reason, one of my comments was not printed in it's entirety; the middle paragraph got lost.
It concerned the idea that certain players may be quite useable and actually be worth more than their WAR for a team because they have one specific talent. A DH, for instance, can be a defensive nightmare. It's his bat that teams might covet, but if he's played a position in the past, his overall WAR will suffer. I think this can also apply to utility men (although it would have been nice if MiniMart could have hit closer to the Mendoza line) and to specialist relievers and maybe innings-eating starters. If everybody had great WAR totals, every team in the ML would go belly up. They'd all be too expensive.
I try to gauge a player's skills on what he's good at and how that fits with a team's needs. WAR helps, but it's not specific enough for me, and I prefer breaking things down more. It just doesn't matter to me that Howard is only adequate on defense and has no base stealing skills, so his WAR isn't up there. Taking care of that skillset is Jimmy Rollins' job. Home runs and RBIs are Howard's job.
Extremely well said. WAR has it's place but it can't be the end all be all in putting a team together. Yet I feel that some of these guys (some on here who I won't call out – at least right now) do act as though it's the word of God.
Winston Churchill once said: "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time."
The same is true in regard to WAR and other baseball stats. WAR has its flaws (different equations for different sites like Fangraphs and baseball-reference; inadequate defensive measures, etc.) but it is so much better than other stats out there, especially when it comes to quickly comparing two players across a baseline. Ideally, people would use WAR to jump off to examine deeper stats like wOBA, baserunning stats, batted ball stats, etc., but for a quick comparison nothing else comes close.
The biggest mistake the SABR sector of the commentariat has made is in deifying WAR. It has flaws, it is far from perfect, and is not the end-all-be-all stat that some make it out to be. Despite these flaws, though, it is still a powerful analytical tool and much better than anything else out there.
Pubes, thanks for clarifying AND for coming clean when admitting that the SABR sector has indeed deified WAR. Your approach on here can often times be rather obnoxious and condescending but you've just corrected a lot of that with me with your above comment(s). Well done, lad!
Keith Law wrote a very good blog piece on ESPN (Insider) yesterday about advanced statistics in which he described how WAR is best used and also how it is often misused.
The thing is, I don't really think most of the SABR-inclined commenters are deifying WAR. We use it as a jumping off point, and a statistic which is useful for easy overall comparisons, but I don't think anyone in the group of people here who follow such things has ever used WAR exclusively as a be-all and end-all of an argument about a player.
In fact, I'd say it's the opposite. It tends to be the statistical curmudgeons, the old-timey guys who are more likely to seize on a WAR discrepancy or focus on the use of WAR to completely dismiss an entire argument which used WAR as one of its components, while ignoring most other points that go into WAR (defense, base running, etc).
hk, here's a non-insider article on WAR which is actually pretty good too: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8959581/why-wins-replacement-mlb-next-big-all-encompassing-stat-espn-magazine
He goes on at some lengths about the virtues and weaknesses of WAR, but I'll quote the last two paragraphs, since it's long and I'm sure not everyone will read the whole thing:
"Yet baseball's front offices, the people in charge of $100 million payrolls and all your hope for the 2013 season, side overwhelmingly with data. For team executives, the basic framework of WAR — measuring players' total performance against a consistent baseline — is commonplace, used by nearly every front office, according to insiders. The writers who helped guide the creation of WAR over the decades — including Bill James, Sean Smith and Keith Woolner — work for teams now. As James told me, the war over WAR has ceased where it matters. "There's a practical necessity for measurements like that in a front office that make it irrelevant whether you like them or you don't."
Whether you do is up to you and ultimately matters only to you. In the larger perspective, the debate is over, and data won. So fight it if you'd like. But at a certain point, the question in any debate against science is: What are you really fighting and why? "
"Deifying" may be a strong word here but Publius admitted with his comment that that has been the biggest mistake of the SABR sector…"deifying WAR." Whether it's a jumping off point for some or the end all be all for others doesn't really matter. It does tend to be almost oversused by some to the point where nothing else seems to matter.
Above, Jaron B commented and then asked:
"Great analysis, Ian. I'd like to see Howard produce: .263 BA, 67 BB, 125 RBIs, 34 HRs, 3.2 PAs/K or better with defense similar to his career average. What fWAR would that produce?"
hk's answer was:
"Between 2.0 and 2.5"
Now some may scoff at Ryan Howard ONLY being a 2 or 2.5 WAR player….especially based on his contract…. but… if he produces the numbers that Jaron wishes for wouldn't most people be absolutely thrilled with that?? Coming off an injury such as a torn Achilles?? I know I would.
THAT'S where, in my opinion, WAR doesn't tell the whole story. Who really cares if he's only a 2 WAR player? Just give me those numbers from Howard and I will be ecstatic.
I don't believe in specified "jobs" for players. Balls are hit to the first base area — does the first baseman turn them into outs, or do they become hits? Howard HAS to run the bases — does he do that in a way that helps the team to score runs, or doesn't he?
Everyone is better at some things and worse at others, but I believe it's the job of everyone on the team to generate runs when the team is batting, and to prevent runs when in the field.
There aren't many bigger Howard fans than I, and I defend him often, but he's not as good at fielding or baserunning as many others, and I think that those deficiencies are just as real and meaningful as his ability to drive runs home.
Great comment, that's about how I feel -i'll add just one thing.
I understand there are strengths and weaknesses in most players games. It's when players that are supposed to be masters of one thing aren't, (Sluggers for instance) then what's left?
Everyone goes into slumps in various parts of their game. How long did Albert Pujols go before hitting his first home run last season? How long did Josh Hamilton slump, like two months most of July and August? Hamilton played a premium position-CF- last year, and Pujols is a supreme defender at first. Both can do other things to help their team, not all players can.
It happens, to all players at some point in there long seasons. So, if they have several other tools, it makes up for it. It truly is everyone's job to generate and prevent runs, this is not football where you just run a new set of guys on the field to play D.
And that's my case for valuing players using WAR.
To Schmenkman:
I a perfect baseball world, I would have to agree with no one having a specific job. It would be fantastic if a guy put in as a defensive replacement could hit if he actually got an at bat (something which does indeed happen from time to time. It would also be useful if everyone could be Babe Ruth, who had a superb record as a pitcher and could smack a homerun between striking guys out. That's an extreme example, but I think it's still valid.
If a team could fill a roster with players who could do it all, but with a payroll of less than a quarter billion dollars, they'd all jump at the chance. But unfortunately, reality kicks in.
Maybe Ryan Howard is only an adequate fielder, and maybe his base-running doesn't help the team, although it really doesn't seem to hurt it, either. For what he does, he's probably even overpaid. My point was not so much concerned with the value of WAR, but with the value of seeing what talent a player has and using it appropriately, because no team can ever afford 25 "8 WAR" players. That's where certain specific skills HAVE to be looked at, rather than just the overall picture. A team is not going to use a utility infielder everyday simply because they DO have shortcomings in their game. But in certain situations, they can be very usable. Behind by two runs in a late inning, rarely will a team pinch hit using a power hitter; they'll use the guy who can actually get on base, then use the power guy.
Until the Phils have unlimited funds, I'll just hope Howard does his usual things. That's enough for me.
I probably wasn't clear there.
I am in no way saying that every player needs to do everything well.
What I am saying is that everything a player does or doesn't do on the field counts and contributes to his team winning or losing a game, whether it's part of "his job" or not.
Teams (even good ones) use suboptimal players all the time, because they fill a certain need, or because they are the best available at the time, or the best the team can afford. That doesn't mean we forget that they are suboptimal.
I love Howard and his ability to drive in runs. Even when you account for the fact that he has typically come to the plate with more runners on base than most other hitters, he has been one of the most efficient in baseball the past several years at getting those runners home.
But if his fielding is subpar, or he can't go first to third (or 2nd to home), those things matter too, and can be measured, and are measured. And that way we get a more complete picture of his overall performance.
My prediction?
I'm always touched by your positive approach and attitude.
chuck, this site just wouldn't be the same without EricL. i actually always enjoy EricL comments, AFW also…………………………you too Frank!
lol, it was a joke, Chuck. I was obtusely referencing another Philadelphian institution, Rocky IV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSPNQ82Sq4E#t=02s
Actually, skip that one, the acting is better in this one.
lol, yes, the second one is better acted. I could have just said "I was making a dumb reference" but 'obtuse' makes my silly Rocky IV reference seem somehow more erudite. ha
I expect a lot from Ryan as were paying him $20 Million +
He should have worked his butt off this past year.
I expect him in camp at a proper low weight.
Reparations for Vietnam Vets
Baltimore Bob
"He should have worked his butt off this past year."
First of all… this past year would mean from LAST February (when he was on crutches or maybe just off of them from surgery) until now. Not sure how exactly he would " work his butt off" the way you would want him to in that condition.
And secondly….What makes you think that he WASN'T or HASN'T been "working his butt off"???
Reparations for any of my fellow citizens,
Bucks County Chuck
Wow, most of you are clueless about Howard. To compare his stats on one leg is a joke, but lets do it anyway. He still finished 4th in RBI in only 71 games. Looking at the batting average and output of guys in front/behind him when he came back, all hug upswings, and oh yea, the team was 14 games over .500 with him. You don't get how good this guy is. 30 hrs 110 plus RBI do not grow on trees, he is well worth 25m per season. He is putting up historic numbers. If you don't appreciate him, you just don't get baseball.
Totally agree as long as he puts up those numbers each year of the contract. I think it's wrong when baseball players like Alex Rodriguez getter 25 million a year to do nothing. I realize that their hurt and it's the owners fault for giving long contracts that are guaranteed, but something is really wrong when a pitcher like Santana with the mets gets 25 million in a year he is hurt. A pitcher makes about 30 starts, so that's about a million dollars a start.
This is obviously the owners fault.
Maybe someday their needs to be contracts that are non guaranteed, like football. I'm sure the union would not go for that. The players would still be payed well, but the teams could get out of these bad contracts that can hurt the team for years.
Also, players that are paid ridiculous contracts and hurt become hated by a lot of fans because we see how the team is hurt. In football, you don't players that are paid high salaries and hurt, criticized because they are cut in a lot of cases.
I just think baseball has really got itself in a bad place with these ridiculous guaranteed contracts.
Wow, I use to spell good. Sorry for all the mistakes.
"I just think baseball has really got itself in a bad place with these ridiculous guaranteed contracts."
As long as revenue is as healthy as it is, everybody is making money, and everybody is happy (Marlins fans notwithstanding). If the large TV deals dry up in a few years, and there's no revenue to replace it, that would be a time to rethink the system. But for the foreseeable future I don't think there's an issue.
That's true for now. Baseball is very healthy. But for how long. The dodgers worry me. What if their spending does not stop, and it appears that it will not. At this point they are worse than the Yankees ever were with no end in sight. This is according to their ownership. At least the Yankees are in the American league so I didn't care that much. Something might have to be done if the dodgers payroll continues to be unlimited and every year buy the best talent available.
From what I understand WAR does not give credit for RBI's. The best thing Howard does is drive in runs. That is why I believe it is unfair to judge him on WAR alone. Bottom line is runs matter and he drives them in.


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Reviewed By Thomas D (UNION BEACH, NJ) Reviewed for a 2010 Dodge Nitro —12/24/2012 1:40 AM
The liner comes rolled up and needs to be allowed to flatten itself.
Reviewed By David A (Woodbridge, CA) Reviewed for a 2008 Dodge Nitro —4/26/2008 12:36 PM
I liked the way you just pulled it out of the box and slapped it into place. What I didn't like is that it had a skunky smell. It was so bad, that people compared it to marijuana. The smell has dispersed now and I think the liner is great.

subset: commoncrawl


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Health Information Center
Microscopic colitis is an inflammation of the colon that a health care provider can see only with a microscope. Inflammation is the body's normal response to injury, irritation, or infection of tissues. Microscopic colitis is a type of inflammatory bowel disease—the general name for diseases that cause irritation and inflammation in the intestines.
The two types of microscopic colitis are collagenous colitis and lymphocytic colitis. Health care providers often use the term microscopic colitis to describe both types because their symptoms and treatments are the same. Some scientists believe that collagenous colitis and lymphocytic colitis may be different phases of the same condition rather than separate conditions.
In both types of microscopic colitis, an increase in the number of lymphocytes, a type of white blood cell, can be seen in the epithelium—the layer of cells that lines the colon. An increase in the number of white blood cells is a sign of inflammation. The two types of colitis affect the colon tissue in slightly different ways:
When looking through a microscope, the health care provider may find variations in lymphocyte numbers and collagen thickness in different parts of the colon. These variations may indicate an overlap of the two types of microscopic colitis.
The colon is part of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, a series of hollow organs joined in a long, twisting tube from the mouth to the anus––a 1-inch-long opening through which stool leaves the body. Organs that make up the GI tract are the
The first part of the GI tract, called the upper GI tract, includes the mouth, esophagus, stomach, and small intestine. The last part of the GI tract, called the lower GI tract, consists of the large intestine and anus. The intestines are sometimes called the bowel.
The large intestine is about 5 feet long in adults and includes the colon and rectum. The large intestine changes waste from liquid to a solid matter called stool. Stool passes from the colon to the rectum. The rectum is 6 to 8 inches long in adults and is between the last part of the colon—called the sigmoid colon—and the anus. During a bowel movement, stool moves from the rectum to the anus and out of the body.
The colon is part of the GI tract.
The exact cause of microscopic colitis is unknown. Several factors may play a role in causing microscopic colitis. However, most scientists believe that microscopic colitis results from an abnormal immune-system response to bacteria that normally live in the colon. Scientists have proposed other causes, including
Sometimes people with microscopic colitis also have autoimmune diseases—disorders in which the body's immune system attacks the body's own cells and organs. Autoimmune diseases associated with microscopic colitis include
More information is provided in the NIDDK health topics:
Researchers have not found that medications cause microscopic colitis. However, they have found links between microscopic colitis and certain medications, most commonly
Other medications linked to microscopic colitis include
Bacteria. Some people get microscopic colitis after an infection with certain harmful bacteria. Harmful bacteria may produce toxins that irritate the lining of the colon.
Viruses. Some scientists believe that viral infections that cause inflammation in the GI tract may play a role in causing microscopic colitis.
Some scientists believe that genetic factors may play a role in microscopic colitis. Although researchers have not yet found a gene unique to microscopic colitis, scientists have linked dozens of genes to other types of inflammatory bowel disease, including
Some scientists believe that bile acid malabsorption plays a role in microscopic colitis. Bile acid malabsorption is the intestines' inability to completely reabsorb bile acids––acids made by the liver that work with bile to break down fats. Bile is a fluid made by the liver that carries toxins and waste products out of the body and helps the body digest fats. Bile acids that reach the colon can lead to diarrhea.
People are more likely to get microscopic colitis if they
1Microscopic colitis. Mayo Clinic website. www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/microscopic-colitis/home/ovc-20192308. Updated January 30, 2013. Accessed February 24, 2014.
The most common symptom of microscopic colitis is chronic, watery, nonbloody diarrhea. Episodes of diarrhea can last for weeks, months, or even years. However, many people with microscopic colitis may have long periods without diarrhea. Other signs and symptoms of microscopic colitis can include
The symptoms of microscopic colitis can come and go frequently. Sometimes, the symptoms go away without treatment.
A pathologist––a doctor who specializes in examining tissues to diagnose diseases––diagnoses microscopic colitis based on the findings of multiple biopsies taken throughout the colon. Biopsy is a procedure that involves taking small pieces of tissue for examination with a microscope. The pathologist examines the colon tissue samples in a lab. Many patients can have both lymphocytic colitis and collagenous colitis in different parts of their colon.
To help diagnose microscopic colitis, a gastroenterologist—a doctor who specializes in digestive diseases—begins with
The gastroenterologist may perform a series of medical tests to rule out other bowel diseases––such as irritable bowel syndrome, celiac disease, Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, and infectious colitis––that cause symptoms similar to those of microscopic colitis. These medical tests include
The gastroenterologist will ask the patient to provide a medical and family history, a review of the symptoms, a description of eating habits, and a list of prescription and over-the-counter medications in order to help diagnose microscopic colitis. The gastroenterologist will also ask the patient about current and past medical conditions.
A physical exam may help diagnose microscopic colitis and rule out other diseases. During a physical exam, the gastroenterologist usually
Lab tests may include
Blood tests. A blood test involves drawing blood at a health care provider's office or a commercial facility and sending the sample to a lab for analysis. A health care provider may use blood tests to help look for changes in red and white blood cell counts.
Stool tests. A stool test is the analysis of a sample of stool. A health care provider will give the patient a container for catching and storing the stool. The patient returns the sample to the health care provider or a commercial facility that will send the sample to a lab for analysis. Health care providers commonly order stool tests to rule out other causes of GI diseases, such as different types of infections––including bacteria or parasites––or bleeding, and help determine the cause of symptoms.
Imaging tests of the intestines may include the following:
Specially trained technicians perform these tests at an outpatient center or a hospital, and a radiologist—a doctor who specializes in medical imaging—interprets the images. A patient does not need anesthesia. Health care providers use imaging tests to show physical abnormalities and to diagnose certain bowel diseases, in some cases.
CT scan. CT scans use a combination of x rays and computer technology to create images. For a CT scan, a health care provider may give the patient a solution to drink and an injection of a special dye, called contrast medium. CT scans require the patient to lie on a table that slides into a tunnel-shaped device where the technician takes the x rays.
MRI. MRI is a test that takes pictures of the body's internal organs and soft tissues without using x rays. Although a patient does not need anesthesia for an MRI, some patients with a fear of confined spaces may receive light sedation, taken by mouth. An MRI may include a solution to drink and injection of contrast medium. With most MRI machines, the patient will lie on a table that slides into a tunnel-shaped device that may be open ended or closed at one end. Some machines allow the patient to lie in a more open space. During an MRI, the patient, although usually awake, must remain perfectly still while the technician takes the images, which usually takes only a few minutes. The technician will take a sequence of images to create a detailed picture of the intestines. During sequencing, the patient will hear loud mechanical knocking and humming noises.
Upper GI series. This test is an x-ray exam that provides a look at the shape of the upper GI tract. A patient should not eat or drink before the procedure, as directed by the health care provider. Patients should ask their health care provider about how to prepare for an upper GI series. During the procedure, the patient will stand or sit in front of an x-ray machine and drink barium, a chalky liquid. Barium coats the upper GI tract so the radiologist and gastroenterologist can see the organs' shapes more clearly on x rays. A patient may experience bloating and nausea for a short time after the test. For several days afterward, barium liquid in the GI tract causes white or light-colored stools. A health care provider will give the patient specific instructions about eating and drinking after the test. More information is provided in the NIDDK health topic, Upper GI Series.
Endoscopy of the intestines may include
A gastroenterologist performs these tests at a hospital or an outpatient center.
Colonoscopy with biopsy. Colonoscopy is a test that uses a long, flexible, narrow tube with a light and tiny camera on one end, called a colonoscope or scope, to look inside the rectum and entire colon. In most cases, light anesthesia and pain medication help patients relax for the test. The medical staff will monitor a patient's vital signs and try to make him or her as comfortable as possible. A nurse or technician places an intravenous (IV) needle in a vein in the arm or hand to give anesthesia.
For the test, the patient will lie on a table while the gastroenterologist inserts a colonoscope into the anus and slowly guides it through the rectum and into the colon. The scope inflates the large intestine with air to give the gastroenterologist a better view. The camera sends a video image of the intestinal lining to a computer screen, allowing the gastroenterologist to carefully examine the tissues lining the colon and rectum. The gastroenterologist may move the patient several times and adjust the scope for better viewing. Once the scope has reached the opening to the small intestine, the gastroenterologist slowly withdraws it and examines the lining of the colon and rectum again. A colonoscopy can show irritated and swollen tissue, ulcers, and abnormal growths such as polyps––extra pieces of tissue that grow on the lining of the intestine. If the lining of the rectum and colon appears normal, the gastroenterologist may suspect microscopic colitis and will biopsy multiple areas of the colon.
A health care provider will provide written bowel prep instructions to follow at home before the test. The health care provider will also explain what the patient can expect after the test and give discharge instructions.
Flexible sigmoidoscopy with biopsy. Flexible sigmoidoscopy is a test that uses a flexible, narrow tube with a light and tiny camera on one end, called a sigmoidoscope or scope, to look inside the rectum and the sigmoid colon. A patient does not usually need anesthesia.
For the test, the patient will lie on a table while the gastroenterologist inserts the sigmoidoscope into the anus and slowly guides it through the rectum and into the sigmoid colon. The scope inflates the large intestine with air to give the gastroenterologist a better view. The camera sends a video image of the intestinal lining to a computer screen, allowing the gastroenterologist to carefully examine the tissues lining the sigmoid colon and rectum. The gastroenterologist may ask the patient to move several times and adjust the scope for better viewing. Once the scope reaches the end of the sigmoid colon, the gastroenterologist slowly withdraws it while carefully examining the lining of the sigmoid colon and rectum again.
The gastroenterologist will look for signs of bowel diseases and conditions such as irritated and swollen tissue, ulcers, and polyps. If the lining of the rectum and colon appears normal, the gastroenterologist may suspect microscopic colitis and will biopsy multiple areas of the colon.
Upper GI endoscopy with biopsy. Upper GI endoscopy is a test that uses a flexible, narrow tube with a light and tiny camera on one end, called an endoscope or a scope, to look inside the upper GI tract. The gastroenterologist carefully feeds the endoscope down the esophagus and into the stomach and first part of the small intestine, called the duodenum. A small camera mounted on the endoscope transmits a video image to a monitor, allowing close examination of the intestinal lining. A health care provider may give a patient a liquid anesthetic to gargle or may spray anesthetic on the back of the patient's throat. A health care provider will place an IV needle in a vein in the arm or hand to administer sedation. Sedatives help patients stay relaxed and comfortable. This test can show blockages or other conditions in the upper small intestine. A gastroenterologist may biopsy the lining of the small intestine during an upper GI endoscopy.
Treatment depends on the severity of symptoms. The gastroenterologist will
The gastroenterologist may prescribe medications to help control symptoms. Medications are almost always effective in treating microscopic colitis. The gastroenterologist may recommend eating, diet, and nutrition changes. In rare cases, the gastroenterologist may recommend surgery.
The gastroenterologist may prescribe one or more of the following:
Corticosteroids are medications that decrease inflammation and reduce the activity of the immune system. These medications can have many side effects. Scientists have shown that budesonide is safer, with fewer side effects, than prednisone. Most health care providers consider budesonide the best medication for treating microscopic colitis.
Patients with microscopic colitis generally achieve relief through treatment with medications, although relapses can occur. Some patients may need long-term treatment if they continue to have relapses.
To help reduce symptoms, a health care provider may recommend the following dietary changes:
People should talk with their health care provider or dietitian about what type of diet is right for them.
When the symptoms of microscopic colitis are severe and medications aren't effective, a gastroenterologist may recommend surgery to remove the colon. Surgery is a rare treatment for microscopic colitis. The gastroenterologist will exclude other causes of symptoms before considering surgery.
Researchers do not know how to prevent microscopic colitis. However, researchers do believe that people who follow the recommendations of their health care provider may be able to prevent relapses of microscopic colitis.
No. Unlike the other inflammatory bowel diseases, such as Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, microscopic colitis does not increase a person's risk of getting colon cancer.
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What clinical trials are open?Clinical trials that are currently open and are recruiting can be viewed at www.ClinicalTrials.gov.
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CALEDONIA, Minn. -- Jacob Swindell's interception in the State semifinal game helped seal Caledonia's trip to Friday's Championship. But during the play, Swindell was thinking about his past.
"It's in the back of my mind when I'm playing football," he said. "I use it as strength and momentum sometimes."
Swindell grew up in California and moved to Oklahoma when he was four. His parents split. He was taken away and lived in a foster home for six months.
"My mom, I don't really know where she is right now," Swindell said. "She calls once in a while but she misses my birthday a lot. It doesn't really seem like she cares."
Jacob's dad eventually regained custody, and he moved with his sister to a mobile home court in Caledonia. Jacob sleeps on a couch in the living room at night.
"When I was growing up, it was always like that. So when I have a chance to sleep in a bed, I do," Swindell said.
I always tell Jake, don't ever be ashamed of that," said Caledonia Head Coach Brent Schroeder. "Just be proud of your roots and where you came from and just remember that. Take it as an opportunity in football to get out of there."
"One of my buddies, he's got a beautiful home and stuff like that," Swindell said, "I want to have a beautiful home like him someday like his parents have for him."
Swindell lifts himself through football, but even that hasn't come without it's rough patches. Last season, he was suspended for the first two games for an athletic code violation.
"Substance abuse, drinking smoking, it doesn't matter," said Schroeder.
"I think I was taking it out on how my life's been and stuff like that," Swindell said.
So Brent Schroeder turned into far more than just a head coach.
"He's kinda like my Dad in a way," Swindell said. "Coach Schroeder is kind of like a second father."
But nothing would mean more to Swindell than to three-peat as a State champion, for his real dad.
"I would probably give my Dad a big hug. Rough in the past, but he's came through as a father. And I love him."


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The American Kennel Club (AKC) reported a record number of pet lovers who attended this year's AKC Meet the Breeds in New York City. Over 40,000 people came to the third annual event co-hosted with TICA at the Jacob Javits Center on November 19-20, 2011.
"TICA was proud to be a part of AKC Meet the Breeds and give kids the opportunity to walk through the Bengal breed booth decorated as the jungle, and pet the loveable Toyger cat that looks like a wild Tiger, while their parents learned about responsible pet ownership and the importance of learning the characteristics of each breed before you add it to your family," said TICA President Vickie Fisher.
"The AKC was pleased to join forces with TICA to once again offer the public this opportunity to meet and play with dogs and cats, including some of the rarest breeds most people may have only read about or have seen on television,"
If you'd like to see photos of Meet the Breeds, visit www.meetthebreeds.com


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Home List of Titles Probing the 2-D kinematic structure of early-type galaxies out to 3 effective radii
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/89907
|Download PDF (Published version) (Adobe Acrobat PDF, 291 KB)
- Title
- Probing the 2-D kinematic structure of early-type galaxies out to 3 effective radii
- Author(s)
- Proctor, Robert N.; Forbes, Duncan A.; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Brodie, Jean P.; Strader, Jay; Spolaor, Max; Mendel, Trevor; Spitler, Lee
- Abstract
- We detail an innovative new technique for measuring the 2-D velocity moments (rotation velocity, velocity dispersion and Gauss-Hermite coefficients h3 and h4) using spectra from Keck DEIMOS multi-object spectroscopic observations. The data are used to reconstruct 2-D rotation velocity maps.Here we present data for one of five early-type galaxies whose kinematics we have measured out to ~3 effective radii (see [1]). From these data 2D kinematic maps are constructed. We show such analyses can provide significant insights into the global kinematic structure of galaxies, and, in some cases, challenge the accepted morphological classification. Our results are of particular importance to studies which attempt to classify galaxies by their kinematic structure within one effective radius, such as the recent definition of fast- and slow- rotator classes by the SAURON project.
- Publication type
- Conference paper
- Research centre
- Swinburne University of Technology. Faculty of Information and Communication Technologies. Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing
- Source
- AIP conference proceedings: Proceedings of 'Hunting for the dark: the hidden side of galaxy formation', University of Central Lancashire, Malta, 19-23 October 2009 / Victor P. Debattista and Cristina C. Popescu (eds.), Vol. 1240, no. 1 (Jun 2010), pp. 339-342
- Publication year
- 2010
- FOR Code(s)
- 020104 Galactic Astronomy
- Keyword(s)
- DEIMOS; Galactic centre; Galaxy kinematics; Gauss-Hermite coefficients; Globular star clusters; Keck; Multi-object spectroscopic observations; Rotation velocity; SAURON Project; Spectra; Velocity dispersion
- Publisher
- American Institute of Physics
- 0094-243X (series ISSN)
- Publisher URL
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2010 American Institute of Physics. Published version of this paper reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher.
- Full text


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Military couples sometimes deal with weeks, months, even years apart while loved ones are deployed.
But, some wives have found a way to reignite the love flame even thousands of miles away.
More and more military wives are taking boudoir photo sessions striking a pose and sending sexy personalized albums overseas.
Case in point: Kaitlin Folkers.
In this photo shoot, she's nervous because she's stepping way outside of her comfort zone.
"I hope that he's really excited about it, and I think he'll like it a lot," said Folker.
Kaitlin's husband ships out for months at a time in the U.S. Navy.
"It doesn't get easier. We can't talk a lot of times when he's on the sub so it makes it even harder," said Folkers. "I wanted to do this now just as something to remember our time in Hawaii. Kind of before we go into our next stage in life having kids and everything."
Photographer Daphne Hargrove says business is booming and not just with military wives. Everyday women of all ages, sizes and shapes come to her all looking to tap into their inner bombshell to give their husbands an extra kick.
Click here to see the boudoir photography slideshow on your mobile device.
"It's kind of refreshing for them to see the women in their lives as these goddesses that they initially fell in love with," said Hargrove.
Hargrove says these shoots have a secret side effect.
"If I'm able to boost her esteem in some way by showing her how beautiful she really is and that she deserves to feel that way then that makes me happier than anything," said Hargrove.
Kaitlin says every pose captured today is just another way of saying, "I love you."
"Especially when he's gone, to be able to have the pictures to remember you by I think is really important," said Folkers.
Hargrove says photo shoots are done both indoors and outdoors. Her trick to getting her clients out of their comfort zone during photo shoots -- she has them think of their loved one and the magic starts from there.


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It's only a word that's keeping women from leadership?
What happens the first time these imagined little girls get called something truly awful? "You know, some people think of you as an inspiring female attorney and mother. Other people think of you as the overbearing yuppie wife from hell. How would you describe yourself?" That's what a reporter asked Hillary Clinton -- when she wasn't actually running for office -- on the campaign trail in 1992. Bossy is one of the nicer things Hillary gets called.
So a billionaire has decreed from the bubble of privilege that little girls are negatively affected by the term bossy? You know what impacted my self-assurance and kept me from leaning in as a little girl? The fact that I was known as the kid who wore the same (my only) pair of jeans every day. Confidence is a thing people trapped in the hamster wheel of poverty never worry about.
#BanBossy is a perfect example of the Pink Ribboning of evils. Instead of a candid assessment as to why there are fewer female leaders than male followed by real world solutions to the inequities in education, lack of opportunities and economic stresses that contribute, what's proposed is something gimmicky with celebrity endorsements. The Pink Ribbon answer is, in the most literal way, the very least we could do: remember; get a sticker; pledge to ban a word.
It's less about encouraging girls to raise their hands and more about encouraging armchair activists to log on. "Please retweet." Change your Facebook avatar and change the world. Put a pink ribbon on breast cancer -- buy a couple of pink hair dryers -- and be satisfied you're doing your part. The problem with Pink Ribboning is it alleviates alarm by giving people something easy yet empty to do. It softens the concerned, warding off a real response. Done. Next issue.
"Awareness" is a consolation for actual quantifiable change.
Meanwhile, women still make a fraction of what men earn. Texas Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott said he's for equal pay, but also stated if elected governor he'd veto the state-level Lilly Ledbetter Act because it wasn't necessary. Then data out this week shows women in Abbott's own office make less money on average than their male counterparts doing the identical job.
At the same time our country lags behind in women leadership. According to ElectWomen.com "The U.S. ranks 89th in the world for female political involvement." There are two states in the union that have never had a female governor or one represent them in Congress. One of them is the state which holds the first electoral event of the nominating process for president, Iowa (the other is Mississippi).
This is all just a little more deeply ingrained than a not-really-derogatory expression. We're still fighting over whether the pill will make women into unbridled nymphomaniacs. The jury is still out whether women should legally be public incubators for a "life" or capable of making their own decisions about their reproduction. Women are the majority of food stamp recipients. One in three American women (42 million) are living in poverty or on the brink. There are 28 million children who depend on them. Half of those children are little girls.
The concern transcends any one word -- or even an entire lexicon. We still care about what Hillary wears and what work Nancy Pelosi has had done (Vladimir Putin and John Kerry BOTH get Botox and in the dust up over Crimea that fact has somehow not been a sidebar story on Huffpo).
There are tons of hurdles female leaders must leap all while being thin, pleasing to the eyes of men (but not so much you intimidate women), perfect mothers, fashion conscious, hyper competent, ageless and never angry. And yes, they also have to endure criticism, prejudice and unpleasant things said about them.
But Pink Ribboning tells us all we need to do is very little.
Just buy a pink toaster.
TINA DUPUY is a nationally syndicated op-ed columnist, investigative journalist, award-winning writer, stand-up comic, on-air commentator and wedge issue fan.


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Berkeley #24, 1954
Richard DiebenkornAmerican, 1922-1993
Oil on canvas
68-3/4 x 57 in. (98.4 x 144.8 cm)
Norton Simon Museum, Gift of Mr. and Mrs. Robert A. Rowan
© 2008 Estate of Richard Diebenkorn
Not on view
Richard Diebenkorn was born in Portland, Oregon in 1922 and spent most of his career in California. He was among a small number of artists in mid-century America to achieve international acclaim without living in New York. Diebenkorn received his artistic training at Stanford University, the University of California at Berkeley, and the California School of Fine Arts.
Throughout his career, Diebenkorn grappled with issues of abstraction versus representation in his work. In two bodies of work in abstraction—the "Berkeley" series from early in his career and the famous "Ocean Park" series from the late 1960s—the artist looked to his environment for inspiration. His bold colors and strong compositions revealed highly metaphorical spatial and chromatic explorations.
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NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell wrote positive things about the 2013 Pro Bowl during a Reddit.com chat on Monday, according to NFL.com.
During the chat, Goodell wrote, ""I watched the game and noticed the improved quality of the game. I appreciate the players commitment in this regard. We need to continually work to make our game better for the fans. I look forward to getting detailed player comment and input over the next few weeks."
Goodell had considered shutting down the Pro Bowl last year.
However, the NFL may choose to host the game in the Super Bowl's host city rather than Hawaii.
Kailua-Kona native and Seattle Seahawks center Max Unger wants to keep the game in the islands.
"I hope they keep it because it was awesome. It's cool to have the best football players in the world in Hawaii. I think that's what the people want and the players want that too," said Unger.
Click here to see photos from the 2013 Pro Bowl on your mobile device.