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-Will J-Roll predict the future once again? Apparently, not this year. In Matt Gelb's piece in the Inquirer today, Rollins shied away from his usual pre-season prognostication. However, he did point out that he wants to steal 50 bases, score 150 runs, and hit .300.
I can see 50 steals. With Davy Lopes at first, why the hell not. One-hundred and fifty runs? That feat has been accomplished just 46 times in MLB history, the last coming in 2000 compliments of Jeff Bagwell. If Rollins touches home 150 times, then he certainly should be well above .300. And if that happens, look out, he could be the next MVP. I'll temper my expectations with Jimmy, because he was just average a year ago. I do believe he'll be better, but .300/150/50? Not so sure.
-Brad Lidge kicked his spring off on Monday by throwing 20 pitches off of a mound for the first time since offseason knee and elbow surgery. Today, he watched. As Phillies pitchers took fielding practice, Lidge peered from the sidelines as he'll take it slow in his recovery process. The Phils closer is scheduled to pitch again tomorrow, but he said he feels completely pain free so far. Good sign.
-Jamie Moyer, too, is chomping at the bit to get healthy and to pitch again ASAP. The ageless one was able to take fielding practice with his mates today as he recovers nicely from multiple surgeries this offseason.
It's great to see Moyer healthy again, but lets be honest, he's no longer someone who excites us as a part of the rotation. He will have to work to get his spot back, as Kyle Kendrick and others want that coveted #5 spot. But as far as his health goes, glad to see him nearing 100 percent.
-And for the news everyone wants to hear: Roy Halladay will throw tomorrow! He'll toss to a group of Phillies that will include Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez, although it's rare they swing. But come on, that just sounds cool.
–Ryan Fagan of The Sporting News broke down the Phillies for upcoming season and sees them in a rematch with the Yankees in the Fall Classic. He also sees them losing. Hard to argue with the first part of that statement. But I'd bet there are many of you who take issue with his selection of the Yanks for back-to-back titles.
98 Comments
It's good to have goals, but the 50 SB thing kind of worries me. Jimmy's career success rate is around 83%, which is well above the 70ish% break even rate. But if he's trying to steal 19 more bases than he did last year, by definition he's going to be taking off trying to steal in situations that are less advantageous, and that success rate is going to go down to something less optimal. He did steal 46 and only get caught 8 times in 2001, but he was a lot younger then.
Oh and Davey Lopes should stop sending Ryan Howard. Forever.
Rollins won't reach those numbers, but I don't expect him to falter out of the starting gate like he did last year. But the MVP won't be in his reach. .280/115/35. At best.
Lidge can't be worse than last year. 35 saves, 6-8 blown. Expect Charlie to have a bit of a quicker trigger finger on pulling him this year. Also, it would be wise to just have him brought in for 1-2 outs, not 3. And don't expect to ever see any 3+ out situations, at least not unless he establishes dominance from day one.
Moyer… love him. He looks like my dad. And my Dad's 62. Spot starts are the best we can hope for.
Halladay – better be worth the hype. League switches favor pitchers usually, and he is a premier pitcher. Him and Lee would have been a god-send though.
No offense to the Yanks, but I don't think there is a team hungrier, and in better position to make the WS and win than this team. Their success has not bred complacency. Rather, I expect them to blast out of the gate in April, making long strides ahead of the NL East competition. And we've seen that the rest of the NL doesn't have what it takes to beat them in the post-season. The Yankees would need another magical Series to take them again in a best of 7 championship series, and they don't have it.
yea…why would anyone think the yankees could repeat…they only have a better if not equal lineup , better pitching stuff, and clearly a better bullpen then the phillies
u dont know what kinda injuries the yankees could get or who could come up as a surprise in the playoffs against them. the phillies lineup is better than last yr n even healthier. if we get hamels 08 or better and lidge comes thru, we WILL beat the yankees or whatever AL team goes to the WS
The Phillies still have at least 162 games to get to the Postseason. Let's not reserve our World Series tickets just yet. Those same injuries that could plague the Yankees could also get the Phillies just easily. Hopefully not, but don't put all of your eggs in one basket.
(The non-NY Bob)
I dont know who has more a of sense of entitlement: Yankees fans or Canadian hockey fans.
We get it, the Yanks are the champs and as we know to be the best you have to beat the best. It would be nice for one of these Yankee fans that come here to acknowledge how tough a WS run is, no matter how good your team is.
Positive Thoughts!
1st- Great Report! this is the stuff I think we all agree that we want to hear.
2nd- If Rollins says that those are his goals I am 100% behind him cause if he steals 50 bases and hits 300 with 150 runs that means Utley/Howard/Werth have career years, unless the 19 more stolen bases are home.
3rd- good to see Lidge pain free good good good
4th Moyer chomping at the bit is good, competition is awesome wanna see them fight it our for the last rotation spot.
5th- Why be so critical, negative, pessimistic, whatever you want to call it? I am so excited for baseball and the Phillies. My hopes are up and they should be! We have won 3 straight divisions 2 NL championships 1 WS best last 5-6 years in Phillies History.
I have been feeling the last several months and many of you know me cause I post alot here that many are just wanting to look at the negative of everything this team does, sorry the above record allows me to be an optimist and trust this organization!
Lets rally behind this team and enjoy the ride!!!
Go Phils
Jeff of Nova…
Put me in the "positive" camp….along with the likes of George, Don M, shag beta, Original Chuck P, Manny (most of the time), of course Pat, Ed R, Bob (the non-NY one), et al…..I'm sure I'm missing many…
(Note: I'd love to put Dipsy in this group…. he's not really negative…..but you all get my drift….)
Glad you decided to stay Jeff of Nova….yesterday you sounded like a beaten man. I understand…..some of these posts are stupid and ridiculous…..and oh so negative….
Let's all just try to get behind our Phillies….it's a new season, Spring Training is under way, and the prognosis for our team has never been better to start the new season.
Pat: I also see the Red Sox giving the Yankees a tough time in the division.. and they could be the ones in the WS. I just see an improved Red Sox team who's hungry now (hungrier than usual) to take the Yankees down.
On Halladay, I read something on MLB.com that said that he has never swung a bat, that he needs to learn how to bunt, stuff like that. J-roll was joking that they'll miss Cliff's two-out doubles… As someone who likes NL pitchers that can hit, I really hope Roy learns how to hit/bunt/run the bases –without getting injured. I know I worry too much… but he's freaking Roy Halladay… he better be healthy all the time cause we're gonna need him!
I think Rollins (with a better lineup behind him), will get lots of fastballs to hit all season. . . pitchers will want to go right after, not nibble-and put him on base for the big guys
and Polanco is a tougher out than Victorino . . Utley is healthy. . .Howard is a beast
I don't know about J-Roll hitting .300.. but with a career .274 batting average . . I could see him in the .280, .285 range this year
In 2007, he scored 139 Runs . . . but he had 716 At-Bats … I could see Rollins somewhere around 130 Runs scored. . and 50 Steals would be a stretch, but with a pure contact-hitter in Polanco.. he'll have the confidence not to worry about a Stike-Him-Out—-Throw-Him-Out DOUBLE PLAY
So I see Rollins with more steals too
I would say Jimmy Rollins, .285 average, 130 Runs, 40 Steals.. wouldn't be that much of a stretch . . and I think that his goals aren't unreachable
eventhough my opinion doesn't count for jacksh!ht on here… I had great idea
what if .. you guys linked our roster, to a Baseball Reference page, or the Yahoo, or MLB player profile page.. of each player
I just had to open a new window, go to Yahoo, search for Jimmy Rollins..and check all his stats . . maybe you could even link such a page to where the player's are listed by salary ??
just a thought.. a little more all-in-one on the website, holler
Yeah I agree! There are a lot of the positive group. Lets keep it going!
Looking forward to a fun season
Hey Brian,
When do we get info on Fantasy baseball
You should never bet against this team…
First, Rollins will have a better season… he almost has to because it really couldn't have been much worse. Maybe him turning the focus on himself is a good thing. In the past, he has done that and been successful.
Second, Lidge is really important this season… we're not going to win anything if he is as bad as he was last season. As long as there has been "closers," I don't know if there has ever been a team in baseball that has made it to a World Series with a closer as bad as Lidge was in 2009.
3rd – Yankees are marginally better… I don't think Granderson will live up to his contract. Defensively, he's not that good. He's dog dirt terrible against lefties… he hit .183 against lefties in 2009 (to put that in perspective, Howard hit .207. Granderson's power numbers jumped (hitting 30 HR in '09) but everything else fell. For what it's worth, they're going to miss Johnny Damon and they may have gotten Nick Johnson too late (they've seemingly wanted him for years)… what scares me more than anything is the addition of Vazquez. He's not a big game player but he'll eat innings and should help save some arms.
Lastly… Halladay. I think that I'm going to end every post from here until the end of the season with that. Halladay…
The Red Sox are looking very good this year. With the addition of Lackey I'd say they're rotation is certainly on par if not better than the Yankees. And Beltre will give them a boost…I wish we had signed him instead of Polanco but whatever.
And Rollins' aggressiveness on the basepaths kind of worries me. That kind of ambitiousness could make for some poor decisions on when to run.
Overall, I haven't been a huge fan of the Phillies running game. It just doesn't make a lot of sense with a power hitting lineup like we have. While I feel Davey Lopes does a good job, I disagree with almost always giving players a green light. While we have speed at the top of the lineup, I find it extremely aggravating when Rollins or Victorino risk making an out when Chase Utley is at the plate, who is likely to hit an extra base hit that plates a guy from first anyway, or walk, making the steal worthless. Risking an out with an attempted steal when you have a guy with a near .400 OBP at the plate just makes no sense at all.
I know fans tend to favor the "Gotta be aggressive!" mantra, but it often doesn't make practical sense.
Think about this as far as the Red Sox having success this year. and "giving the Yankees a hard time"…..and the ramifications it could have on the Phillies….
Say the Sox give the Yankees a real run….say they get to the WS and fall short….or even deep into the playoffs and fall short…..they're one or two pieces away from winning it all.
Enter into the picture Jayson Werth….you know…..the one that will be due a BIG payday.
Werth has the desire to WIN…he won here…..he now sees it again with the Sox….and the Red Sox have the $$$$.
Not that the Phillies aren't winners and contenders…..not that the Phillies don't want him….and not that Werth doesn't like it here….he can stay, play for a winner, and make really good money.
Or he can go to the Red Sox….the team that's one or two pieces away from it all…and make REALLY, REALLY good money.
I'm not saying that Werth might not go to someplace like Boston anyway….but the fact that they might be poised for winning it all could be just enough to push him out the door.
I could definitely see Werth being big in Boston…
Rollins has had a few seasons with more than 40 steals before . . so its not like he's saying he wants 100 steals and he'll be running no matter what
Pat Gallen . . give us hints
Yea I said that before Boston was interested in Holliday and Bay this year …. you know that they'll be interested in Werth or Crawford next year
the other teams that have interest in Werth would probably be the Cubs, Angels, maybe even the Dodgers with Manny departing (but I can't see him going back to LA)
San Francisco needs some offense.. . ..
if Werth doesn't stay here, I hope he goes to a city that will appreciate him . . like Boston or Chicago … not just chasing money somewhere that doesn't love baseball
Yeah the Red Sox would definitely pose a threat to snatch up Werth next year. Ellsbury's contract is up this after 2010, correct? Werth would be a huge upgrade over Ellsbury, and I think Theo Epstein is plenty smart enough to realize Jacoby's defense is hugely over rated.
The only way I feel the Phils can resign Werth is to trade Howard next off season. I know this is a touchy subject, but signing Howard to a mega contract is a huge concern of mine. I know I'm not the only one with reservations about that huge swing suffering with age.
Yeah, basically the Ibanez, Lidge contracts are primed to bite us in the ass big time next year.
1. JImmy Rollins wont get 50 steals i think his numbers are .275/12/75/79/36. He isnt on base enough to get 50 steals.
2. Brad Lidge will be a ride like always I think he projects to 2-4/4.25/65games/ 32 sv/ 38 chances still 6 blown saves. He will be way better then last year so thats a plus.
3. Jamie Moyer will not be the 5th starter. Kendrick is going to take that spot I think. If I were the Phillies I would cut Moyer at the end of spring cause he isnt going to be productive enough to be worthy of a roster spot.
4. Roy Halladay- I have seen this guy pitch at Baltimore and he is astonishingly good. He donest miss his mark and when he does the hitter is so fooled they swing. He will be as advertised and will be a anchor to me in a rotaion that will be one of the best in the NL this season. I project hallday at 19-5 2.99era 221.1ip and 11 CG. He will throw lots of low effort complete games vs marlins, nationals, pirates and maybe the mets.
5. World Series predicton by sporting news of Yankees over Phillies. I think that the Phillies are a lock to make it but the AL has a few teams that are going to compete for it, The Redsox have the pitching but lack the offense, the Mariners have the Pitching but no Offense and the darkhorse to have a Rays like run in 08 is the Texas Rangers. They have a dynamic offense and some good young pitching. just a hunch but they might make the west race intresting or not and I'll look back at this post and go man im Dumb. I think the Phillies this year matchup better with out feliz who strikes out alot and victorinio lower. The NL has no competeiton for the Phightins, Dodgers 3 peat of NLCS loses to us would be embarassing. I think the Phillies play the Redsoxs and win this year.
Chuck P
I love that ending I may follow in your steps.
I am actually curious to see how Kendrick does this spring, I am excited to see what he has worked on the last offsesason and last year.
Also curious to see how Happ comes out of a tremendous Rookie year.
I think the sky is the limit for this 1-8 lineup
Also what is everyone's prediction on the bullpen
I am thinking
Romero (DL) to start
I know that leaves 4 on the bench. I think Mathieson is going to be an impact pitcher in the pen.
If Moyer is in the rotation then I will suspect they go 5 on the bench and put Kendrick in AAA( he is not a bullpen guy at this point)
Starting 8
Castro or Mayberry depends on their direction of what they want
Starting 5
Anyway that is what I got for a roster
And of course I end with
Happy Halladay:)
Lopes won't let Rollins be overagressive…
That's my point…..that Werth COULD, SHOULD play for a winner….and not just the team….but the city. Boston and Chicago exemplify that perfectly….along with Philly.
But it's more than just any "winner"…..it's a winner that's "on the door" of winning it all….Boston could be that team.
Just like "fan since birth" mentions above…. "Red Sox have the pitching but lack the offense." Werth could be the answer to that for them.
Davey Lopes may not let Rollins be "overaggresive"……but I think Lopes is smart enough to let Rollins take more chances than he might with someone else. Rollins has the experience and tenure to warrant that level of respect from the coaching staff.
Im pretty sure Ellsbury is under Red Sox team-control for like 3 more years . . . maybe he becomes arbitration eligable after this season? But that only means that he has a chance to say how much money he's worth, and what he wants his salary to be.
On the Bench: . . . Castro over Mayberry without a doubt. They got him because every team NEEDS to have a defensive player.
I was big on the Rangers last year, and I still like them this year.. they should definitely have the offense to compete. But it all depends on their young pitching. Neftali Feliz is the real deal, but i dont know if they are making him a starter again or not? The loss of Kevin Milwood might hurt them for a while, but Nolan Ryan is in charge there now, and he's not worried about pitch-counts and stuff . . he's trying to get some BULLS in his pitching staff
I think the Rockies are really, really, really, really dangerous this year
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Kevin Youkilis
4. Victor Martinez
5. David Ortiz
6. Adrian Beltre
7. J.D. Drew
8. Mike Cameron
9. Marco Scutarro
I just came up with this scenario in my head, but here it goes:
I could easily see the RedSox going hard after Jayson Werth to take over to J.D. Drew . . . .who they could shift to DH for David Ortiz…
The RedSox have a $12.5 M option for Ortiz, they still owe Drew $28 M total over the next two seasons . . . He isn't great in the field to begin with, and he's often battling injury. So why not move him to DH, get better in the OF, and let Drew focus only on his hitting
damn.. Werth's gonna be gone
Thanks for painting that nice, rosy picture, Don…..of course, I started off by mentioning Werth wanting (?) going to Boston in the first place.
Rockies being dangerous. Red Sox on the cusp. A WS rematch isn't out of the question at some point.
Juan Castro is this year's Eric Bruntlett. NOBODY should be expecting anything from him except his glove. Any offensive production should jus be considered gravy.
Don that makes sense about JD Drew.
What I would like to see the Phils do if at all possible is this in next years offseason… most likely will not happen but if they could
Trade Ibanez and Lidge for anything (cup of tea, a pizza, anything) Take the money saved and resign Werth and to a deal that makes sense for the Phils.
Then you bring up Brown to take Ibanez spot or you move Francisco out there till he is ready.
I truly think and like I said before I am big optimist, but I am high on him is Mathieson. I forsee him being our closer at some point, but if he is not ready put Baez there.
Thats one solution.
Other is up your cap the ownership has put on the salaries.
Alot of that depends on this groups success.
Lopes won't let Rolling be overaggressive… I think that Rollins is just realizing that he should be attempting to steal more bases because he's historically efficient. To get to 50, that means he's gotta be on base… hopefully that means he has better plate discipline in 2010.
I love Moyer… everyone knows that… but I'm with everyone. There is virtually no chance that he'll end the season as our 5th starter. Kendrick might not make it, either. We'll piece it together with the likes of Carpenter, Savery et al. I'm curious to see what they do with Bastardo… have they decided that he's no longer "starter material?"
Not only the Werth deal . . . . but Howard's salary is going to jump way up if they want to keep him (which they do)
you can't really have a team with multiple players making $20 M..
Halladay, Howard, Utley .. Werth and Hamels would be appraoching that number in their next contracts.
Ibanez.. at what $11.5 M … you would need to pay all but $4-5 M of that I think..
Mathieson as next year's Closer seems scary.. lets see him and Madson both step up this year and make Lidge pitch for his job.
I really hope they can find a way to keep Jayson Werth, but with multiple big market teams willing to outbid the Phillies … and this his one chance to make a payday . . I can't fault either side if Werth goes to the highest bidder, if that team is also a contender.
Bastardo reminds me SO MUCH of Romero . . . I see him as our Lefty-Specialist of the future
Unfortunately, the case with Werth is going to be way different than it would be for Rollins, or Utley . . . guys who already signed their big "free agent" Contracts.. the took multi-year deals at market value prices .
Werth never had that chance .. and with his one chance to take care of his family for life, I hope the Phillies can find a way to make it happen
Don that is so true like I said mine is highly unlikely cause it is next to impossible to have that many high price players.
In a perfect world we keep all our favorite players forever but not happening.
I trust RAJ has a plan ready to work for this team, and of course we can only speculate, guess, hope and pray lol
I like players with agressive goals but the goal that JRoll needs to focus on his OBP. Phils would be better off with a leadoff hitter with at least a .360 OBP (JRoll lifetime is .329). Last year Jimmy's OBP was a horrid .296 – worst of the starting 8 and worse than most of the bench.
There is no way he can get 50 steals without improving his number of chances which means a higher average and more walks, etc.
Alternatively move him down in the lineup – he is productive with runners on base.
Where do you bat Victorino? I say leave him at 2. If he drops below 280, move him to 9
I think all guys out there that can do it…… should grow crazy-a$$ beards like Werth… and show up at games…..to make a big statement to the Phillies management.
Victorino doesn't perform well in the leadoff spot, because he jumps at pitches.. and is too aggressive . . . making him a great pick for #6 or #7
Polanco is as close to the PERFECT #2 HITTER as you'll find in baseball . . . he does all the small things
I liked Ibanez 6th, Victorino 7th . . .that might hurt with Ibanez on base ahead of Vic.. holding him back from taking extra-bases, etc.
I'm sure Vic would LOVE the leadoff spot….because he's so damn cocky and thinks he can do it…..but he would suck there. I agree….Polanco #2 and Vic #7.
If you would like to extend Werth, give him this: a three year extension at 3y/39m, payed thusly:
2011 – 8m
2012 – 12m
2013 – 19m
I think that Werth, right now, is a 9m a year player. Add another stellar year this year, he becomes a 12m player. Thats is not to say that somebody may be come mindless and give him 4/60-65. Because he has such a small body of work, it is my opinion that only one more great season will jack his price tag up that much more. The reason I would structure the deal this way is to obviously try to fit him in next year to keep the nucleus intact. Because he is taking his big money on the end I would give him an extra 3m.
The Dipsy
I really think that if Phillies fans want to tell management to keep Jayson Werth . . .
that Right Field needs to become his version of "MANNYWOOD" …. let the front office know that we want him to stay, even if it means a few extra dollars for our tickets.
brainstorming …it could either have something fun to do with his Jesus-like appearance . . like "The Promised Land" Fans
or call the Right-Field sections "ANTI-GRAVITY" . .because "nothing drops in RF" with Werth there…
…someone more creative than me should really get at it
F the Flyin Hawaiian, and how much they try to market him.. he's there for the kids.. REAL fans like Utley, Rollins, Werth . . . guys that make heads-up plays, playing Old-School baseball
"Add another stellar year this year"….. and Jayson Werth is MORE than a $12 M player. I'm going on record now as saying that some team will pay him more than that…..whether it's the Phillies or somebody else.
And 4/60 from a team like Boston would not shock me at all.
Your pay-out scenario, however, is interesting.
The Phils would naturally make that offer before the season started. I wonder if Jason would take that offer today. If I were he, I'd have to say I would. And I'm trying to be objective. And that would be unprecedented cost certainty for the Phillies.
The Dipsy
Taking about players who will benefit with the changes in the lineup, we forgot to mention CHOOCH. With Shane on base hopefully more often than Pedro Feliz, Chooch might hit for a higher average. When Pedro was on fire early last season, Chooch was also on fire (He had like a .300 average and at some point was 5th in the All-Star voting for catchers!).
That's a GREAT deal…..for the Phillies.
I think Werth thinks he can get more…..in years and dollars. And I think that, too.
But who knows…..??????
Jason Bay got a nice 4/$66, right? Now, we all know that Werth is the better player but Werth doesn't have as much to back it up on paper. Bay has put up similar numbers but he has done it over the course of six years… Werth has really only had two decent seasons. I don't know if he'll get 4/66… maybe something in the 3 year / 12-15 million range. Thoughts?
Oh yeah, Halladay…
When you're looking at the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, and Phillies.. all potentially in the mix for his services next year . . (and I guess maybe the WhiteSox and Giants would be too?) …
he's going to be getting an annual salary of around $15 M … and probably for 4-5 years.. and AL team can use him to DH, or move to 1b or something somewhere down the line
I think it would take at least, 4 years, $50 Million to keep Werth right now.. and I think he gets more than that if he becomes a Free Agent
Like Dipsy said, something like 3/39….structured appropriately….and that's a good deal for both sides….at least that's my opinion.
But Werth probably can get more, no?
I agree Original with your Werthy assessment.
Bay gets so much crap lately, and he is an incredible player… they give him a tough time for his defense, which is so underrated that people are gonna be in for a big surprise.
Also, can we please stop shipping Werth to Boston already? Red Sox are gonna have to re-sign Beckett (Lackey money probably), figure out what to do with third base (Beltre on a 1-year deal). I know they are a big club, but no one team has unlimited funds! (Well, maybe the Yankees, but that's it!)
You're all just in love with the beard…
Ortiz at $11.5 M comes off their books next year.. they have money to spend..
and with Lackey, Lester, Bucholz already under team control . . . Beckett isn't really a priority I dont think.. they would like him, but probably wont break the bank for him
why is everyone ending every post by saying
Probably some kind of chant. I just did it because I figured it was the thing to do.
Sort of like doing "The Wave" when it comes around to you.
Manny…the beard is totally cool. Not that I would look good with one like that, mind you.
Someone on the facebook page said just call him Jaysus… hehe…
Werth doesn't seem like a Red Sox guy… but he would rake in that park. I would hate to see him go. I am not a huge Jayson Werth fan but he's uber talented. If he realizes how good he can be and continues to work hard, his best years may be ahead of him.
Halladay… hehe… read my post at 10:05.
Ok. Cool. Got it. I won't do that anymore. "Halladay" is unique to you.
Thanks for putting me in the positive group.
But I also do not count my eggs early. Though I think we have a great shot at the NL East crown again. The playoffs are about match ups and you never know what will happen. Unless it is the Dodgers, I think the Phillies are so far in their heads they might as well stay home.
It is hard enough to make it there 2 in a row, 3 is going to be tough.
On the other hand we did make it there last year without a closer ( I think Brad will be a lot better this year) a lead off guy ( I love Jimmy leading off but the first 4 months of the season he was just bad) or an Ace(Lee came in late, and I think Cole will be back in true Cole form this year) So I feel good right now, but they still have to play the 162 to get there. I and I will be there ever other sunday doing just that.
On Wreth, I think if they are going to keep him they have to do it before the year is up. If you can extend him then there would not be other offers, if you wait some AL team is going to throw 15-17 million for 4 years at him. And since when is 39 million not enough to set up your family for life, 40 million dollars for 3 years is not a big contract? I think he would stay for that.
And when it comes to being overly aggresive stealing bases, with the Phillies success rate I do not care who is up to bat. If it is there you run, the threat of running makes pitchers make mistakes, 1 or no outs Rollins on first he should run. It also move the infielders, so more ground balls will be hits, as long as the % stays way above average you can never be too aggressive especially early on in games.
Anyone in that positive group should feel free to end with Halladay… gotta keep it positive on here and I can't think of a better way to do that than to finish a thought by mentioning the name of the greatest pitcher in baseball… the one that will be toeing the mound on opening day for our Phightins…
Wait for it…
every single steal, means a base hit from a run. meaning one jimmy rollins steal equals a big solo blast from one of the boopers. 1 steal= 1 home run
with polanco batting second as the hardest to face in the lineup, and chase and howard in the on deck circle, jimmy should be flying this year. he has never been a lead-off hitter, i feel like the polanco signing was for jimmy
whats his name? J-Roll! whats his name. J-Roll!
The reason that you are hearing that Werth's number will be $16 M . . . is because that is what is getting back to his agent, from the teams that would be interested
$40 M is a lot . . . $60 M is a lot more…
who is going to turn down extra money that nature
the difference between 40-60 . .. is WAY more than between say 100-120.. for pretty much the same reasons that Rowand left, I think Werth will be gone after this season.
The Phillies don't want to commit right now, because there is a very good chance to Domomic Brown is MLB ready for next season, and they don't want to have $30+ M tied up in their OF's . .when they could get away with paying Brown $400,000 instead
lets let the year play out.. maybe Ibanez never comes back from his injury?? Then Werth is needed that much more . . . maybe Brown hits .350 in AAA and proves he's ready for the majors.. etc
er, I mean, Halladay
Nice write-up.
I think it'll take more than 13 per to keep Werth. Soriano 18, Bay 16, Holliday 17, Ichiro 17, Wells 12.5 going up to 21(ouch), Rios 12.5…
14.5 might do it. 4/58 should be doable from the Phils perspective. Werths 7+Moyer's 6.5+1 of Romero's 4 get's you there. The 23 million for Lidge and Ibanez following 2011 would go towards a closer and resigning Howard and Hamels.
Forgot to end with Halladay! Can't waqit to see him pitch. Also looking forward to heding up to reading to check out Aumonte.
One problem I can see with Rollins' quest for 50 steals is Polanco, not that that is a bad thing. Polanco is such a contact hitter that many steal attempts will end with Rollins continuing to third because the pitched ball has become a base hit.
If Brown hits .350 in AAA in 2010, we'll all be saying, "Jayson who?"
I'm trying not to look ahead… we should all be really excited about 2010 and Jayson Werth is a huge reason why. Like I said, it's going to sting if/when he leaves. Rube said that there are some scenarios under which Jayson Werth remains a Phillie but the writing appears to be on the wall. Ibanez is here for at least one more season, Vic is here for the next three, Brown has been annointed the future and we've got other players to take care of first (Howard, Rollins, Hamels).
One thing is clear; questionable deals lead to what ifs… what if we had found a way to sign Raul to a two-year deal? What if we had not given Jamie Moyer his deal?
But then there's Halladay…
that 3rd year is why Ibanez signed here… and Ibanez in the 1st half of last year is how we managed to win enough overall games to win the NL EAST again
except for Moyer's 2nd year.. I've been on board with just about every single thing the Phillies have done lately
and there is a chance that Moyer will still WIN the #5 spot this year.. so that might not be the worst move ever
The gap in consistent production between Werth and some of those guys is huge… he had two good seasons. A few of those guys found their names on MVP ballots… Rios was in his fifth season of 400+ AB's.
I think that Jayson Werth is every bit as good as some of those guys but they got big money because they either produced at a high level for multiple seasons OR they took advantage of JP Riccardi. I like Werth but he won't get the contract that Jayson Bay does unless he hits the cover off the ball this season.
Gotta run… drive safe and Halladay
Yeah either way I think whatever happens to Moyer we can all agree he is over paid this year. I really think he will do better in the pen
Moyer with his deceptive pitching style fools hitters for 1 maybe 2 times through the lineup which makes him the perfect middle reliever.
I have felt that for awhile, and I think we all saw how well he can do in the pen, as of last year after Pedro was signed. Anyhow just some thoughts.
Have a nice evening all and Happy Halladay
Speaking of Halladay great arlticle on Phillies.com about him pitching with Ibanez, Utley and Dom Brown in the box.
My favorite part is Utley's look back at one of Halladay's sinkers with the look of "we're supposed to hit that?"
And that is one of the best hitters in the game, so the is post speaks for itself
No….that's not right. (I DO want Jamie to do well, though)
But really it's…..
In my opinion, there are generally three groups in this blog. There is the positive Don M/Chuck group, there is the cynical Manny/The Dipsy group (not saying its bad) then there is the idiot group, Just Crushed/SpankeYankee etc.
I think that a lot of us are discounting the Mets too early. They had tons and tons of injuries, so I expect them to compete for the division this year.
Does Kendrick throw sinker,.. or splitter? . . I think its a sinker right?
I've been knocking him for the past two seasons, saying that he's a major league pitcher.. just not for a World Series caliber team
I'm officially ready to change my stance though. I think he wins the 5th starter spot, and iturns in a year of 4ish ERA, and wins 12+ games
Similar in size, and in story (sent back to the minors).. I think working with Halladay is going to be a great thing for him
I don't want to come across as 100% positive with every single move they make.. It's just that im 26, and the last few years have been the best Phillies-years of my life. they are doing things right now, and have earned my complete trust and confidence. . random moves like letting Jenkins go instead of Stairs . . or even this year with letting Myers go, I don't really like…. but the guys that run the team know more than we do, and we shouldn't knock everything they do to try to make themselves better
bring in every veteran arm, and bat possible because you never know when the next JC Romero, Scott Eyre, or Chan Ho Park will come around.
Baez wasn't a great deal .. but it was a very smart deal to stabilize the pen. I really think this team is going to be amazing this year.. and even with the Braves winning upwards of 90 games.. we should still win the NL EAST with ease
Phillies, ?, Rockies … Braves wild card
I like the Cardinals lineup, but their pitching is a question mark to me
Don, I think Kendrick throws a two seam fastball, but im not sure.
Report from Clearwater:
Apparantely, Domonic Brown took live BP today and faced Halladay and said, "It was pretty nasty, man. Pretty nasty."
Chase Utley stood in, Chooch was catching
Chase stood in, Ruiz was catching and Utley shot Ruiz a look as if to say, "And we're supposed to hit that?"
One word…
I was watching an interview with Cole Hamels the other day, it might have been SportsNite, where he said he was not comfortable with his curveball grip all last season. I've also read that, because of an injury to his forearm (?) when he was younger, the curve puts a strain on his arm. I'm thinking that maybe the curve is not the right third pitch for Cole. If he's gonna throw it just has to break a little sharper. I also heard he was working on a cutter. Thank god. I think thats his pitch. Something to throw to both lefties and righties. Thats fastball to a righty is like home cookin. I think he's gonna pitch well. I wish he could throw a riser.
The Dipsy
Holy crap, Second John.. you grouped me with the Dipsy despite that I usually never agree with him!
Kendrick's sinker (his best pitch) can only get better if he keeps hanging out with Roy "nasty sinker" Halladay…
This string is probably dead already, but since my internet was out all day yesterday, I'll comment anyway (sure a lot of people waiting with baited breath!).
I don't really care if Jimmy hits 260 or 300 – just want to see his obp% break 360. If that happens, 50 steals/150 runs are definitely in the picture (probably more like 135 runs). To start the season, I think Jimmy should run every time he leads off an inning getting on base, except against the Petites of the world, lefties with good/illegal moves to first. Slow it down a bit as the season goes on – the threat of a steal is almost as bad as the steal itself – gets the pitcher out of rythym,…. With Polanco batting second, should be able to move him to over half the time (probably 30% without no outs). If Pitchers consistently walk Utley, then Howard, Werth, and Ibanez are going to punish them.
Boston would love Werth – in the Dirt Dog mode of Varitek, Trot Nixon, Greenwell, Pudge,…
There are always injuries (although usually not as bad as the Mets had last year), teams with depth tend to survive it. I think the Yanks and Rays are the elites in the AL – something Met-like has to happen for them not to make the playoffs. They are the top tier.
The Rangers look good, but get killed by playing half their games in Arlington – just too hot, the guys wear down by Sept. Boston looks good on paper, but they don't have a lot of depth, especially on offense. How is Beltre going to hit, is Ortiz done, who is their shortstop, will JD play 140 games,…. In Sea, pitching looks good, and Figgins fits that team/field perfectly, but there is always the Milton Bradley factor to consider, Ichiro is older, who else is going to hit? Twins are always in there, but not real scary, LAA looks worse, but always find a way. AL central is a wasteland.
In the NL, the Phils, Rockies, and Braves are the only teams who improved (I put the Braves in the Bos category – everything has to break right). The Mets have to be better, but they have no starters after Santana, it's going to toast their bullpen.
Although the Cards get the benefit of a full year of Holliday, their pitching isn't as good (although Duncan always finds a way). Dodgers get a little more experience from their kids, but lost a lot of pitching. Reds have a lot of talent, but are still probably a year or two from contending. Cubs always look good on paper, then underperform.
It's hard not to pick the Phils for the division and pennant. I think the other team will be the Al East, but a roll of the dice on who (Yanks, Rays, Bos – who stays the healthiest).
Health, average years and perhaps as a bonus some career years.
The only barrier I see to a Phils repeat in the NL is health, which affects every club and their chances.
Someone mentioned earlier that Polanco, being a true contact, low strike out batter hitting second, that might hinder JRolls quest for 50 SB's. I disagree. I think this is even more of a chance for hit and run giving Polanco a lot to work with (moving runners up) and setting the scene for some heavy lumber. Utley, Howard, Werth could all see personal bests for RBI's based on a healthy front end of the lineup.
I guess the burning question I have is; "Are the Phils done with all the moves?"
Answer to your question is
Yes, not really that burning though.
oh by the way
Happy Halladay
Phils are done spending money… I think Rube said that earlier this week. You'd have to be crazy not to pick the Phillies but anything can happen. Injuries would be the most likely impediment but a teams like the Braves and Marlins that have scary pitching could surprise everyone. One thing is clear to me; this team has more heart than anyone else out there. I have visions of last year's team plus a focused/rested Hamels and Halladay for an entire year and think, "This team could easily win 100+ games." We won 93 last year and we were really forced to piece a lot of things together… think about how many guys were used to keep things afloat: Lee, Happ, Myers, Moyer, Martinez, Lopez, Kendrick, Bastardo, Park, Carpenter… if we can get some consistency in our rotation, we'll win 100+ games. We all think that Moyer is probably not going to make it very long but I'm ok with Kendrick, Bastardo, Carpenter and whoever proves themselves on the minor league circuit plugging the #5 hole as long as Halladay, Hamels, Blanton and Happ are there for the long haul.
With all this snow out there, I really wish I was down in Florida…
We've all heard about the Dom Brown/Halladay encounter. While Brown didn't muster a hit, to me, it says something about him… he stepped into the box eager to swing against Halladay. He wanted to test himself and see what all the fuss was about. You've gotta remember that Halladay is the player to whom he was often linked to via trade rumors… I'm glad he's still a Phillie.
I'm glad that this guy is a Phillie, too…
I think the other key word on this site, other than "Halladay", should be
"Nasty"…..I can't wait to see Brown. I'm really exited that we still have him……I hope he turns into what is expected…..it will make losing Werth a little easier if that actually happens.
Halladay (Nasty)
Not sure where it came from . . .but a week or two ago, somebody posted that Vegas had the Mets as like a 90-win team, the Braves an 80-win team, etc . .
I saw this today, and its a lot closer to what my predictions would be .. including the Phillies and Braves slightly better, the Dodgers slightly worse . . the Rockies challenging in the NL West , etc..
Arizona- 82
Atlanta- 86.5
Baltimore- 72.5
Boston- 94
Chicago C- 83
Chicago W- 82
Cincinnati- 78
Cleveland- 73
Colorado- 83
Detroit- 81
Florida- 81
Houston- 77
Kansas City- 71
LA Angels- 84
LA Dodgers- 84
Milwaukee- 80.5
Minnesota- 82
NY Mets- 81
NY Yankees- 94.5
Oakland- 78
Philadelphia- 92
Pittsburgh- 71
St. Louis- 88
San Diego- 71
San Francisco- 83
Seattle- 83
Tampa Bay- 89.5
Texas- 83
Toronto- 71
Washington- 72
That would have the playoffs teams as:
National League-
Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves = wild card
American League –
Yankees, Twins-WhiteSox tied, Angels, RedSox = wild card
not really a stretch to pick those teams as the favorites
but there predicted standings would be
NL East
Phillies – 94
Braves – 86.5
Mets – 81
Marlins – 81
Nats – 72
NL Centreal:
Cardinals – 88
Cubs – 83
Brewers – 80.5
Reds – 78
Astros – 77
Pirates – 71
NL West:
Dodgers – 84
Rockies – 83
Giants – 83
Diamondbacks – 82
Padres – 71
Wow!! Not one team on the list projected at less than 71 and more than 94.5. Has that actually ever happened before? I'll have to look it up.
Shows a narrowing of the disparity between the teams. Not that the Pirates, Royals and Padres can be considered "close" to the Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies.
I dont know that its really "projections" . . . but they set an Over-Under at what they think for people will be a coin-toss
Phillies at 94 . . I would THINK they would have more than that, but I don't think I would bet on it.
I would put money on:
Cleveland Indians UNDER 73 wins
Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 89.5 wins
Colorado Rockies OVER 83 wins
New York Mets OVER 81 wins
Hmmm… If I had to pick one word to describe each of our guys, which words would I use?
Hamels – diva (relishes the spotlight, eager succeed)
Rollins – swagger (no explanation needed)
Utley – flawless
Howard – transcendant
Werth – raw (talented and unapologetic… especially now that he looks like Jaysus)
Victorino – energetic (tireless, persistent and annoying at times… when he crosses the line into perky/arrogant)
Ruiz – steady
Ibanez – veteran (battle-tested, seasoned)
Lidge – unsettled (impatient)
And I'll end with this…
Halladay – superlative (as a noun, a thing that is highest quality… in grammar, it is an adjective that is used in situations where you are trying to define something that is excellent… Halladay should be synonymous with superlative, instead of thinking, "I need a superlative here" you can think, "I need a Halladay here.")
I'm not much of a gambler, so had to follow the lines a few days, look into more. Apparently, there aren't a lot of bets on baseball this time of year, so the lines are very volatile. A few big bets can really swing the line. Must have looked at it on a day where there was a lot of Mets fans in Vegas. I like the Astros under, Rockies over.
the Astros have a very good TOP of the lineup . . . Bourn, Hunter Pence, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee
a very good 1-2 punch. . . Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez . .Myers #3 could be a 15 game winner still
so they will be a dangerous team, but over the long-haul, they will fall off
Utley – flawless ??
I would say "hustle" . . . but not flawless . . he has a chance to be GREAT . but guys that are capable of being .300 hitters, need to actually do that year-in and year-out
In this city, Utley can do no wrong… criticizing Utley is like committing blasphemy. He's on pace to be the greatest second baseman of all-time… power, defense, speed, average… he does it all and has sort of redefined the position. There are five or six really good all-around 2B in MLB right now and that wasn't the case prior to his emergence… Kinsler, Utley, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano, Zobrist, Roberts… all of those guys have really burst onto the scene more recently.
"greatest second baseman of all-time"
Tell that to relatives of Eddie Collins and Rogers Hornsby…to name a few.
Utley has played 891 games . . .or 5.5 seasons
His average year thus far is
.295 batting average
109 Runs scored
15 Steals
14 Errors
Well I would definitely say he is the best 2nd baseman in the game right now. Yes he makes some errors but he makes the spectacular plays
He makes spectacular plays….and he plays smart. I think that's what was meant by the word "flawless".
Utley, along with Rollins, is sort of like a field general out there. And it's hard to argue that he's maybe "the best in the game right now".
If the Phillies had a "Captain" like Jeter with the Yankees or Varitek with the Red Sox, I guess you could put Utley in that role. These types of players are a unique, almost rare breed…especially in today's game.
Chase Utley is the Man! Enough said.


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Charlene Jesso VoghellMarch 19,2013Charlene Voghell
ROCHESTER Charlene Mary Jesso Voghell, 64, died on March 13, 2013, in Harwich, Mass., with her daughters by her side.
Born July 14, 1948, in Randolph, Vt., she was the daughter of Andrew and Chloe (Coburn) Jesso.
Charlene attended school in Rochester, graduating in 1966. She then attended Champlain College to become a legal secretary.
Over the years, she worked as a legal secretary in the White River Junction area and for many years, worked in the library at Vermont Technical College. There were many days that Charlene commuted to work on her brothers moped.
Charlene was a huge fan of Jerry Lee Lewis and James Bond movies. She was an excellent seamstress. The light of her life was her grandson, Derek Andrew. Charlene enjoyed cooking and was famous for her baked beans and dump cake. She loved the ocean and enjoyed many trips to the Maine coast. She also enjoyed taking her daughters, when they were young, on spontaneous road trips and they had many great adventures. Charlene was a devoted mother and grandmother and she leaves many classmates, co-workers, friends and family with fond memories.
She is survived by her daughters, Jennifer Ryone and her husband Derek, Christine Menard and her husband Dan, Sheila Towle and her husband Chris; her grandson, Derek Andrew Ryone; her older brothers, Keith and Larry; her nieces, Sandy, Linda, Jill, Janet, Juli, Jody, Shelley, and her nephews, Gordon and Alan. Charlene was predeceased by her parents; older brother Wendell; younger sister Cheryl; her niece, Sharon, and her nephew, Steve.
In lieu of flowers, memorial donations may be made to the charity of your choice.
A graveside service will be held May 18, 2013, at 11:00 a.m. in the Woodlawn Cemetery in Rochester, Vt. For online condolences, please visit www.nickersonfunerals.com.MORE IN ObituariesCharles T. Baker
Charles T. Full StoryMarguerite Hoose
Marguerite Alice Peggy Hoose, 90, of Rutland, Vermont, died December ... Full StoryLouise S. Full Story
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The mobile environment has a unique set of attributes not found anywhere else. From intermittently-connected wireless networks to the ever-increasing diversity of mobile devices, the mobile environment has introduced many new challenges to building software applications. The impact of these challenges on server-side software development requires a systematic resolution at the software infrastructure level. Without such a resolution, application developers will be forced to produce point solutions, custom code, and patches, creating convoluted legacy architecture that will result in exorbitant maintenance costs.
J2EE is a server-side technology originally designed to meet the challenges of Web-based application development. Although it was designed to be flexible and extensible to meet the future requirements of new technology paradigms, no augmentation of the J2EE standard has yet occurred to address the challenges of developing mobile applications. The market pressure to get mobile applications out to the enterprise workforce, combined with the lack of de facto architectural leadership from the technology giants in the space, have made point solutions and custom coding the common practices. J2EE technology, however, will help to extend support to and standardize mobile application development.
In this article, I will explore the fundamental architecture of J2EE and how to capitalize on its flexibility, extensibility, and openness by proposing a new server-side J2EE component model to drastically simplify, standardize, and enhance mobile application development.
New mobile devices continue to rapidly enter the market, each consisting of varying configurations. Some devices, such as PDAs (personal digital assistants) and Pocket PCs, have ample memory, large color displays, and sound capabilities, while others have black-and-white displays and limited memory. Some devices are shipped with browsers, while other devices focus on client-side applications. Even devices with browsers that may support the same markup language will often interpret the markup language quite differently.
Many mobile devices can support Java through a micro version of the Java Virtual Machine called KVM (Kilo Virtual Machine). KVM can not only run Java applications built for mobile devices -- the so-called J2ME (Java 2, Micro Edition) applications -- but also supports a superior user interface and off-line functionality during instances of intermittent wireless network connections.
In any case, the common characteristic of these applications is their server-side interaction. They all rely on server-side logic to supply them with the appropriate data and communicate via Internet standard protocols such as HTTP. This shifts a large chunk of the coordination burden to the server side; the server-side application logic must be designed to support each of these devices while fully utilizing all of the device's features. In the case of browser-based applications (e.g., WML, c-HTML), the content needs to be formatted properly for the mobile device display and browser. Even in the case of J2ME applications, a significant amount of server-side intelligence is required. For example, the proper J2ME application must be provided -- i.e., the right application must be chosen for the requesting wireless device, and the version must be checked before delivery.
The wireless network also implicitly affects the development of the applications. Limited bandwidth, high latency, and intermittent connectivity often plague wireless networks. Design efforts to combat network challenges, such as high latency, may involve delivering the maximum amount of content supported by each device, reducing unnecessary requests (or chattiness) over the high-latency wireless link. This so-called "forward-caching design" relies on a forward-caching software infrastructure resource to intelligently detect the memory of the device making the request, estimate compiled size of content, paginate the content, deliver it, and transparently maintain the links among the pages. In the case of J2ME, even greater sophistication is required, since the software must provide code as well as data. The cache manager ultimately decides what parts (classes) can be delivered to the mobile device.
The mobile environment also creates a new application paradigm that may involve multi-modal device access, where a user can swap devices and access methods such as voice and data in the middle of an application. The application may require non-HTTP messaging models for notifications, location-based services, and potentially even a new security model. This new application paradigm affects server-side development by requiring multi-modal session managers and access to non-HTTP messaging channels.
J2EE defines a standard for developing multi-tier enterprise applications by not only basing them on standardized, modular components, but also providing services (e.g., secure transactions) to those components. In other words, J2EE gives the developer a framework and a set of services that simplify the development of Web-based applications. The framework and the associated services are implemented and packaged as products called J2EE application servers. The developer extends the application services (e.g., Servlets, Java Server Pages, and Enterprise Java Beans) and writes to a set of APIs that solve a significant portion of the underlying software challenge for Web-based development. The J2EE application server allows the developer to focus on application development while providing a clean separation between the application server and the application code. In the application code, the developer is encouraged to keep the presentation layer code as separate as possible from business logic to reduce the maintenance cost.
Some of the basic building blocks of J2EE are:
Each of these building blocks comes in a container that offers APIs, which manage a set of services for the building block. J2EE developers use the container and application server APIs such as JDBC and JNDI to build their applications. Since J2EE was specifically designed for Web application development, most of the containers are specific to Web applications. Since out-of-the-box containers are insufficient for mobile application development, the developer must write extensive custom code to deliver on the mobile application requirements. Typically, a sound mobile solution must consist of the following elements:
Future-proof presentation management. The application must interface with many heterogeneous wireless networks and protocols, and control the content presentation and formatting for multiple mobile devices existing both today and soon to be released in the future.
Seamless session management. The application must seamlessly initiate, successfully manage, and terminate user sessions while assuming no cookie support on end-user devices and a sporadically-connected wireless network.
Robust messaging and notification. The application must communicate with many different unified messaging resources typically found around a mobile user (e.g., fax, SMS (Short Messaging Systems), pagers, and voice), using robust messaging interfaces that enable push/pull functionality in a synchronous or asynchronous manner.
Open APIs. The application must access existing data access and business logic layers (i.e., middle tier), back-end data sources (e.g., databases, ISV business objects), and other software and application server services through uniform interfaces.
Each requirement of this mobile solution requires a significant amount of customization work. The J2EE architecture's presentation layer, for example, is primarily HTML-based, thus limiting the target mobile devices to mostly Web browsers. Mobile devices and wireless networks, on the other hand, are much more diverse. Since different devices have different capabilities and may utilize different markup languages (HTML, WML, HDML, cHTML, VoiceXML), a developer may choose to build many different presentation layers for the different devices, or build one presentation layer and apply a transformation for each device. This problem is commonly called the "Mobile Presentation Challenge." In either case, device-specific information (i.e., a device profile or device model) is required in order to choose a presentation layer or a transformation. Developers typically follow one of these two paths in trying to solve the Mobile Presentation Challenge.
The first route often chosen to overcome the Mobile Presentation Challenge is called "screen scraping" or transcoding; this requires repurposing and reformatting HTML presentation content. Transcoding involves taking in the dynamic HTML pages, removing the tags (i.e., scraping the page), storing the data in a Meta format, and retagging the content in a different markup language. This can be achieved with a combination of servlets and JSPs. It is not scalable, though, due to the time required. In addition, the tightly interwoven design of the presentation and application logic increases the ongoing maintenance cost exponentially as the number of supported devices rises.
The second route involves first defining an XSL (Extensible Style Sheets) library, which is used to transform the single XML presentation layer into a markup language suitable for each client device. Although this approach has better separation of application logic from presentation logic, the XSL presentation logic becomes so complex that it soon requires its own application logic, written in XSL command sequences. This basic approach of building style sheets for each device becomes costly to maintain and upgrade as new devices become available, since the embedded conditional presentation logic needs reworking each time.
A more effective approach might be to model each device by specifying its features (e.g., display size, supported markup language, etc.), develop a set of style guides for each device feature, and dynamically assemble the style sheets based on the features of the device making the request. Although you would be authoring a significant amount of presentation conversion logic, you may, in this way, be able to avoid some of the maintenance time of updating a style sheet library as new devices become available. XSL, while well-positioned to process text and convert among XML trees, is not a structured programming language. Thus, XSL is not the ideal choice for creating the complex presentation conversion logic required to dynamically assemble style sheets. If this route is chosen, mixing and matching with different programming languages may be required, presenting the familiar burden of ever- increasing complexity and maintenance costs.
After the first step of defining the XSL library, the developer builds a servlet and within it constructs a string buffer of the XML or a DOM (Document Object Model) for the presentation. The developer must then pass the string buffer or DOM and the appropriate style sheet (which may or may not be dynamically assembled based on device features) to an XSLT (XSL Transformer), which then passes the device-specific markup language in the servlet request. This development is typically intricate enough that in most implementations there is a significant amount of integration and coding that must occur within the servlet. For example, you would be required to identify the appropriate device, identify the relevant features, and assemble the style sheet based on these features. A more elegant approach simply uses JSP to lay down the XML and automatically call the right tranform, so that you focus more on building the application and less on building and tweaking the presentation look and feel.
Although challenging on its own, as seen in the two route choices above, basic mobile presentation is only the beginning of a long, circuitous journey as far as mobile application challenges are concerned. Unfortunately, neither approach has the capability to solve the more perplexing problems that one may face ahead.
Neither of the basic content transformation methods described above addresses the memory issues of the device or the latency issue of the wireless link. Consider one scenario: If the content is dynamic, applying a straight transformation of the XML in a target device's markup language will often result in a document that is too large for the device to properly display.
One patch is to "page" the data at the data source (i.e., the data access layer) based on the lowest-common-denominator device to be supported, which will result in small pages. Unfortunately, this process will lead to burdensome delays for devices without memory or display restraints, since they will be making repeated requests for the small pages over high-latency wireless links, introducing unnecessary chattiness into applications.
Another option inserts logic at the presentation layer based on the memory attribute of the device and "pages" the resulting XML at this appropriate layer. This option requires introducing yet another layer of complex application logic at the presentation layer, violating a basic principle of sound J2EE design and increasing the maintenance cost. In either case, the paginated content on the server would have to be stored and appropriate links between the pages would have to be created. This problem is even more complex than meets the eye, because some pages may have been served to the mobile devices, and the rest will be stored on the server.
What are your experiences with using J2EE for wireless application development?
It is crucial to note that this scenario again increases rather than decreases complexity, if the developer wants to add functionality to the patch that paginates the content at the application and/or presentation layer. Let's assume the developer obtains a device profile for the device making the request to identify the optimal size of the content pages. The developer can use this information to write custom presentation logic to paginate the content and reduce the probability of memory overflow. From the device profile, the developer may also choose to further customize the XML based on other device features and attributes to improve the user experience beyond optimal content pages. That is, the developer may personalize the application flow and content based on how the device accesses the application, inserting ad hoc application logic into the application and presentation layers in addition to implementing a proprietary methodology to handle different device attributes.
The maintenance cost of this custom coding approach will be an eye-opener. Developing a custom transformation engine that dynamically assembles a library based on device features makes adding devices easier, but in itself can be an extensive development project that still faces scalability and reliability issues. The picture is further complicated in the common scenario in which the developer needs to override the automatic transformation for a specific set of pages and devices. For example, customizing a branding page's size, shape, and logo color for a certain set of devices are common requirements, and the transformation engine should allow for overriding and providing full control over the look and feel.
Intermittently-connected wireless networks require programmable session timeouts and cached session data, enabling users to resume where they left off when connections are lost and then reestablished. Management of the additional session data and the lack of cookie support on mobile devices also require a mobile-specific software infrastructure resource. Since no information can be stored in most mobile devices, the developer is burdened with URL abbreviation, rewriting, storing, retrieving, modifying, and passing an enormous amount of session data throughout the application. For example, the server-side stored content and the links among the pages must be passed around concurrently. Multi-modal sessions require the flexibility to swap from a data device (e.g., WML) to a voice device (VoiceXML) in the middle of a session, thus requiring the developer to obtain a new device profile and update the session data, which in turn needs to be passed to the transformation engine for proper rendering.
Conceptually, session management can be extended to cover wireless synchronization. Wireless synchronization requires application logic and/or data to be shared between the server and the mobile device. If the user is disconnected due to lack of wireless coverage, he/she can continue using the application, and all actions and incremental changes to data can be stored locally on the mobile device. When a connection is reestablished, the data is synchronized over the wireless link in the background. Although conceptually trivial, synchronization involves many implementation and architectural nuances.
Compelling mobile applications require utilization of different unified messaging resources typically found around a mobile user. These applications require robust messaging interfaces that enable push/pull functionality in a synchronous or asynchronous manner. Messages need to be routed to the right delivery channel (e.g., voice, SMS, pager) and to be asynchronously queued until delivery, and the queue itself needs management. In case of failures, the message and transaction integrity must be preserved. Successful message delivery return receipts, as well as unsuccessful attempts, need to be recorded and administered.
Solving mobile application challenges "in an island," using custom coding or proprietary black box interfaces and tools, does not simplify mobile application development due to a lack of tight integration with a J2EE infrastructure. Since many of the mobile application challenges (e.g., session management) have a J2EE Web counterpart (e.g., HTTP session), a well-designed mobile solution will extend the J2EE services and resources and integrate tightly at a Java API level. The tight API-level integration will provide the architect and the developer the ultimate flexibility and control over the design, applications, and integration options. If all such software services and resources were encapsulated in a container, one would achieve not only the API-level integration, but also a consistent approach to mobile-enabling the J2EE infrastructure.
J2EE in its existing state requires custom coding to support the development of mobile applications. By arming the developer with the right set of resources at the J2EE infrastructure layer and eliminating the need to write custom code and patches, we can resolve a large part of the mobile application challenge. J2EE technology can be extended with the following services to dramatically simplify and speed mobile application development:
Device Profiling and Personalization Manager: A device profile and personalization manager that can model devices using a set of attributes (e.g., memory, screen size, keyboard layout, display capabilities) and a capability to provision content and applications.
Transformation Engine: A scalable transformation engine that utilizes features and attributes of devices such as device profiles. This transformation engine may have an XML or DOM interface and must also allow for overriding the look and feel.
Memory and Caching Manager: A robust memory and caching manager to optimally partition and cache content based on mobile device profiles with the links to the server-side cached content.
J2EE Standardization: Support for existing J2EE standards and development methodologies such as Servlets and JSP.
Session Manager: A session manager that addresses the requirements of mobile devices and accommodates multi-modal sessions, and handles the intermittent connectivity of wireless networks.
Message and Notification Manager: A message and notification server that facilitates synchronous and asynchronous notification generation, transmission, reception, and administration.
Data Access Manager: A data access manager that leverages the existing J2EE data access methodologies and integrates to existing Java middle-tier tightly at the API-level.
There is significant value in building a container that provides components to satisfy all of these requirements in an integrated fashion. Even if these components/services were independently available, there still would be a significant amount of coding needed to integrate these APIs in a servlet and use them in standard development methodologies. For example, the servlet developer would still be responsible for retrieving the device profile and personalization objects, storing them in the session, calling the transformation engine, passing the session information (including the device profile object), and then calling the cache manger, creating the appropriate links, and storing this additional content in the session as well.
The real power of these services is harnessed by providing a container that manages these services and provides support for standard J2EE development methodologies. For example, a container can allow for the development of "actions" or content in the form of XML or Java (DOM). In any action that resides in the container, the session information would be managed and readily available. The profile object and device personalization objects would be instance variables in the container, so the developer would just create an action in JSP or Java and need not manage the calling of the services. The mobile action container would also pool objects, such as the transformation engine, and may distribute and manage the service across different JVMs or even across different servers. Each server could be dedicated to providing a specific service; for example, there could be a server devoted to performing transformations and another devoted to managing memory.
The container would provide a clean separation between the application and server code, making the application future-proof. The container may be implemented within the servlet or EJB containers, or be developed as a new J2EE container.
The J2EE standard is powerful and widely accepted. Its power and acceptance stems from its sound architecture, openness, flexibility, and extensibility. We have an opportunity to augment the J2EE technology to support mobile application development with carefully thought-out software that provides not only the right set of services, but also the containers to standardize mobile application development. Augmenting the J2EE technology will propel the progress of mobile application development, and help enterprises accept mobile applications as a necessary part of their infrastructure.
Related Reading
Java and XSLT
As technologies evolve and standards are updated, there is no need for enterprises to delay projects or spend development time reinventing the wheel to roll out J2EE-compatible mobile applications. Solid and powerful 100% Java products with open APIs exist that are built on the J2EE extension notion. Companies such as mine, Aligo, have strived to develop products that allow enterprises to extend their J2EE infrastructure to the mobile environment.
The Java development community can also be a strong influencer of standards that can take the mobile application development to the next level. It is important for developers to speak up about their needs, and one great avenue is to participate in the Java Community Process, an open organization of international Java developers, and to spearhead efforts to extend and expand J2EE to support, simplify, and enhance mobile application development.
Jeffrey M. Capone, Ph.D. is a noted author and frequent speaker on Mobile and Java Technology. He is currently CTO of Aligo, Inc.
Return to ONJava.com.
Copyright © 2009 O'Reilly Media, Inc.


text:
Michael Young has been put on the bereavement list by the Phillies, and Cesar Hernandez has been called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. For those unaware of what such a list means, it's when a player leaves the team to attend to a serious illness or death in his (or his spouse's) immediate family. He'll have to be on the list for at least three days and up to seven.
Young hit his second home run of the season yesterday at Fenway Park, but has been struggling mightily, seeing his average drop to .260.
At Lehigh Valley, Hernandez is hitting .308 with two home runs and 18 RBIs and a .383 on-base percentage. It seems possible he'll be in the lineup tonight with Freddy Galvis playing third base for Young.
Today on MLB Network Radio, Charlie Manuel said that Chase Utley is having trouble with pain in his oblique/rib cage area, and it hurts when he breathes. Manuel put a time frame of another three weeks or so until Utley could return.
"He'll be out another three weeks probably," Manuel said. "He has kind of a tear in his ribcage, hurts when you breathe, and if you're not careful, you keep tearing it."
That could keep him out through most of June.
33 Comments
Why do the Phillies lie to their fans constantly about injuries. When Utley got hurt they called it the mildest type of oblique strain with no rib damage. 2 weeks. Now–Manuel says there is a tear and Utley will be out an additional 3 weeks. So a month. Maybe 5 weeks instead of the original 2 weeks. Why can't this team simply tell the fans–who support this team BIG TIME–the truth?
Just so you now…the link on Cesar Hernandez sends you to the 46yr old that played for the Reds…not the 23yr old that was on the Iron Pigs. Heres the correct link
Nope, Rube did sign a 46yr old Cesar Hernandez who was hitting 308 in the over 40 softball league in Wallawalla Washington
How about giving Frandsen some time at 3rd again…worked pretty well last year!! And Galvis, thanks to his speed, is better utilized as a middle IF instead sticking him at 3rd!!
Frandsen is playing second base tonight with Galvis at third. Looks like they prefer the way Galvis plays third, I guess.
I suspect that they'll use Hernandez at 2B starting tomorrow.
It's puzzling to me why they don't move Brown up in the order at least while Utley is out. He's hitting 6th again tonight.
All about baseball superstition and production..if Charlie moves him and he goes ofer and then ofer again…then you have no one producing..besides he can hit solo hr's anywhere in this lineup..
What's eve more puzzling is Charlie was quoted as saying that he will move Brown up when brown tells him he is ready. Then Brown said, in a separate interview, that Charlie will tell him when he is ready to move up. Sheesh. All they need is for Foghorn Leghorn to play Charlie and Zepplin's "Communication Breakdown" to blare in the background.
Behind (I can't figure it out) Demon Young?
And behind Howard. He'll never hit a 2 or 3 run HR with those 2 batting 4 & 5.
Regardless of how much we love him and just enjoy the heck out of watching him play – I think its time for the Phils to drop Chase Utley. Fine, wait until the season is over we just need to rebuild and Chase is once again missing more time.
Love you Chase, you are and always will be "The Man!"
Don't worry Maryann, I think Chase will be here to the end and that could be another 2 or 3 years..
Even with the missed time, he's been – by far – the best position player on the team, and one of the best in the world at his position.
(this year, I mean, obviously)
Utley's news is really, really bad for this team's hopes.
My best wishes go out to M Young and his family.
Yes I second that, my best wishes to the Young family as well.
Last week I posted a quote from Stephania Bell (ESPN's injury expert) that called Utley's injury a 40-day injury …. so the news that he's not coming back soon should not be a surprise to anyone.
… and Brown isn't hitting higher than 6th because Charlie Manuel is stubborn
I suppose Donny that its more a matter of denial than anything…
Dom must have more solo HR's than anyone in history. Charlie needs to move him up, superstition, stubborn, I don't care. I thought Charlie liked three run homers.
Moving Brown up might not mean three run homers. There probably won't be any players on base no matter where he hits.
Defeatist attitude man. Come onnnnn people! These are our fightin Phils. Jesus, it's not even summer yet, and they are only 6.5 games out. The Braves and Gnats have not impressed me at all. This is not over. Dom Brown has more RBI than flip'n Justin Upton- check the stats, imagine what he could do if there was someone on base!
I say let "The boys of Summer" play into Summer before giving up on them. Man, we could use some Phatitude around here.
You move Brown up because hitting behind "on base machine Delmon Young" is not helping the team. Hernandez and Galvis can breathe new life into this team. Put them up top too, with Brown third. Don't give up in May for crying out loud.
First of all, it should come as no surprise if Utley is out close to over a month with an oblique deal. Either you have an oblique and know the drill, or you don't.
So this is not a projection on a quick respite.
But if you actually listen to the interview, it's quite the strategy to treat today's groping for words and a time frame by Charlie to label that as an endorsement of a World Wide Leader medical opinion.
Listen to the interview and it's clear Charlie pulled 3 more weeks out of thin air. Chances are, he's fairly close. That's called Luck Be a Lady Tonight. After a long assed pause and landing on a convenient number.
Lefty…..this offense stinks. And will continue to stink because:
Utley is hurt pretty bad;
Howard is brain dead at the plate. Swings fastball ever-y time;
Jimmy is Jimmy;
Michael Young MIGHT be through. I thought he was gonna have a good year this year. He had a bad one last year and is having a bad one this year. Starting to look like a trend.
Nobody gets on base. Nobody works pitchers. Its horrifying quite frankly. Dom Brown is our best hitter now and should be hitting third.
The Dipsy
All due respect sir, –
Of course the offense stinks, but thinking it CAN"T get better is just the wrong attitude man. It's a damn shame a stinking terrible sports town like Washington can " Out attitude " Philadelphia. The home of Rocky, the home of "against all odds" in 2007 and 8 beating the Mets. I swear I don't recognize this fan base anymore.
BTW- The Phillies offense is 25th in MLB right now, the Washington Fraudinals are 29th! They with all their great name players, and their stinking Natitude. F them, wake up Philly. Atlanta strikes out so much that Dom Brown has more RBI than Justin Upton. They've lost Venters, and Oflaherty- two of the guys that give the Phils so much trouble in the pen. Kimbrel is still great, but so is – AROLDIS CHAPMAN and we kicked his ass.
Cliff Lee is hitting .316..can he shag a few flies, maybe he should hit 3rd..
You know who showed me some real character the other night? The guy I said didn't look like major league material, Yup Ben Revere. He's still a slap hitter and always will be with a top side of maybe Juan Pierre.
But, he rammed that grated wall in Fenway, held on to that ball, and showed the kind of toughness and resilience that this team needs. He didn't come out of the game and never missed an AB. I said at the time I hoped I was wrong about him, and I was. I didn't see this side of him.
The whole team is going to have to tough this season out. You know what they've had some guys get old quick, they've had some injuries, they've been dealt a few bad cards, tough shit. Play it out and play hard, this season isn't over yet.
Here's how much better Altanta is than the Phillies. On April 16th they had a 6.5 game lead on us. This past ten games this month they went 8-2, and they have a 6.5 game lead on us.
They have gained no ground, none, zero, zippo.
All due respect to George and The Dipsy who I may have been a bit rude to, that wasn't my intention, but The Phils are still in this thing people.
Maybe it's mirrors and magic, maybe not, but we have to support them and cut the damn defeatist attitude. We're better than the stinking Washingtonians with their Natitude right? We took their park from them for a few years. They got nothing, nothing on Philadelphians, unless we let them. The Braves have gained no ground on us, we can still win this thing.
Lefty's fired up….and I LIKE it!!
As for the team…Delmon Young needs to go. NOW. I've seen enough of this guy in 24 games to feel he isn't gonna really provide the offensive support this lineup needs. I kind of supported the signing, figuring that it was worth the small risk. Well, time's up in my opinion. I think some kind of Mayberry/Nix platoon would work a whole lot better, no??
Horrible right fielder to boot..ur right Lefty they are still in it, but show no signs of life..I really thought the back to backers against Reds would turn them, but no..when is the last time we had a bunch of hits in one inning or hit through the lineup?
I found this site a few weeks ago. I am your normal, obsessed, Phil's fan. A lot of interesting comments here. I really don't think Utley is tradeable right now given his health. Howard isn't given his salary and knee (he hits a HR as a type this) and no way they trade Hamels. Maybe Lee but I really think with the way he pitches Lee could be good for another 3 or 4 years. This is a tough period. We had a very nice run. I would like to see our hitters be more selective. That is a criticism I agree with 100%. However, sometimes I think people go way overboard.
As bad as the offense is and the pitching has been better. They are only 51/2 games back. Howard might have a small streak. Everyone can homer in the line up except Revere if they just could get on base. Hamels will be better if he gets some run support. Doc, who knows? But they are in it and if they could catch fire. They might win the East. The Braves and The Nats will slump at one point


text:
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.3/94589
- Title
- Numerical study of an influenza epidemic model with diffusion
- Author(s)
- Samsuzzoha, Md; Singh, Manmohan; Lucy, David
- Abstract
- A diffusive epidemic model is investigated with a view to describe the transmission of influenza as an epidemic. The equations are solved numerically using the splitting method under different initial distribution of population density. It is shown that the initial population distribution and diffusion play an important role for spread of disease. It is also shown that interventions (medical and nonmedical) significantly slow down the spread of disease. Stability of equilibria of the numerical solutions are also established.
- Publication type
- Journal article
- Research centre
- Swinburne University of Technology. Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences
- Source
- Applied Mathematics and Computation, Vol. 217, no. 7 (Dec 2010), pp. 3461-3479
- Publication year
- 2010
- FOR Code(s)
- 0102 Applied Mathematics; 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics
- Keyword(s)
- Diffusion; Epidemic model; Infectious diseases; Influenza; Initial conditions; Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions
- Publisher
- Elsevier
- 0096-3003
- Publisher URL
- Copyright
- Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
- Peer reviewed


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I'm expecting in May 2011. I have a 25 month old DD that still nurses once per day. I was a SAHM with her for the first 15 months, so I only needed to pump a handful of times for a night out. I had a Medela Swing for this, and I liked it very much. I'm planning on returning to work a couple months after our second baby is born, and I figure I'll need a double pump to get the best results and keep my supply up.
I'd like to get a second Medela Swing to save money rather than getting a Pump In Style Advance. As far as I can tell, besides the bag and cooler accessories, there is no advantage to the PISA over my proposed 2 Swing system. I realize I'll have to find two outlets and push two buttons, but I don't see that as a big inconvenience. Is there any reason this wouldn't work? Can you think of any other pitfalls I haven't considered yet?


text:
By Helena Rodriguez: Local Columnist
A former editor of mine invited myself and other minority reporters to her home for lunch and asked for feedback. One reporter remarked, "How do I say something without coming across as an angry black woman?"
The response this editor from Texas gave has stayed with me: "It's like your mother told you when you were little — choose your battles carefully!"
Choose your battles carefully. That's something I've been trying to instill in my 15-year-old daughter Laura lately, and yet it's been nagging me at the back of my head because of some recent incidents in which I really want to give people a piece of my mind but opted to follow the advice of this editor and the advice of Kenny Rogers: You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away and know when to run…"
I've done a lot of complaining in my life, sometimes good, as in I put that person in their place; and sometimes bad, as in putting my foot in my mouth. It's a gamble knowing when to exercise self restraint and bite your tongue, and knowing when to drop all your cares and spill your beans.
My parents helped fight injustices in the 1960s and 1970s and taught my sisters and I to stand up for ourselves, but as I've gotten older, and hopefully wiser, I've also learned that you really do have to cho0se your battles carefully. Otherwise you come across as the little boy who cried wolf.
Save your energy for the bigger fights. If you complain about every little thing, people become oblivious and tune out.
On the other hand, experts say it's not good to hold things in. Don't get ulcers; get it out of your system man!
But I've found that sometimes it's the "getting it out" part that gives me ulcers. Even though you feel you're dead right about something, the truth still hurts and sometimes people don't want to hear the truth. You may have good intentions, but if others don't get what you're trying to say or if they take it out of context, it's like talking to a drunk. So lately, I've been holding my fire, but again, I'm not always sure if that's the right thing either.
I'm teaching Laura to speak out for things, but she has been a little disappointed in me lately for opting not to complain about a couple of things in my life. I've been trying to explain this to her the best I can. Just because a business has a complaint box in full view doesn't necessarily mean it welcomes complaints.
What I'm trying to teach Laura here is that life isn't always fair. Sometimes you just have to deal with it, and move on so you can focus on the bigger battles.
The Catch 22 here is the old saying, "… They came for the Jews and I didn't speak out because I wasn't a jew…" which ends with "Then they came for me… and there was no one left to speak out."
There may be times when we do have to be scapegoats and bear the weight and discomfort of complaining so that others won't go through what we did. I thought about this during this recent matter in which I decided not to complain. But then I also forced myself to think about what my personal motives were and I also tried to see things through the other party's eyes. Sometimes we have valid complaints, but we may not know the whole story. For these reasons, I feel that even though this still bothers me sometimes, I made the right choice.
Of course it's best to avoid this stress altogether by trying to settle small battles before they become big ones. Our country is filled with frivolous lawsuits and this has become an excuse by government to try to take away our legitimate rights to sue in more important matters.
And that's just one more reason why we need to choose our battles carefully.
Helena Rodriguez is a columnist for Freedom Newspapers of New Mexico. She can be reached at: email@example.com