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Harry S. Dent doesn't mince words. In his 2009 The Great Depression Ahead, he predicted that the stimulus package in the wake of the 2008-2009 Recession would fail to stem the crisis and, indeed, result in a new set of problems. In his new The Great Crash Ahead, he prepares investors for the rollercoaster of the years ahead. Some of his guidance will likely surprise you: He argues, for example that the U.S. dollar will become a globally recognized safe haven and he insists that the current mania for the safe haven of gold and silver will end with a bubble burst. An opinionated and stimulating take on our current economic situation.
The Great Crash Ahead: Strategies for a World Turned Upside Downby Harry S. Dent Jr., Rodney Johnson
In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of/i>/i>/b>
In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of 2011. The Great Crash Ahead outlines why the next crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner—coming between 2012 and 2014.
With incisive critical analysis and historical examples, this book lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics. Dent shows that the government doesn't drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does; and that the largest generation in history is now saving for or moving into retirement, meaning slowing growth. This is the new normal! Our banking system borrowed to lend for the first time in history with unprecedented leverage and debt levels of $42 trillion, way beyond the massive government debt. But the government's promises and unfunded liabilities take the cake, at an estimated $66 trillion and growing!
These massive debts will have to be restructured in a time of slowing spending, and this means a deflationary crisis, which is very different from the inflationary crisis of the 1970s and requires very different personal, investment, and business strategies. Dent and Johnson outline these strategies in very practical detail. In the coming years, the greatest surprise will be that the U.S. dollar becomes the safe haven and appreciates just when everyone is calling for it to crash, while the gold and silver bubbles burst along with the stock and commodity bubbles. And real estate will see another round of declines just when everyone thought it could go no lower. The Great Crash Ahead is about making smart, cautious investments—avoiding the sort of high-risk, high-profit investment schemes that sank the world economy.
The road to recovery will be filled with challenges and will require massive change, such as debt restructuring, plans for greater employment, the restructuring of social welfare programs such as social security and health care, budget cuts, and higher taxes—in short, a revision of the kind of lifestyle that characterized the "Roaring 2000s." The good news is this process will eliminate tens of trillions of dollars of debt and can make way for growth again as the echo boom generation ascends. Or we can continue on our present course and end up like the Japanese, with no growth and high debt two decades later.
Editorial Reviews
John Mauldin, 4 times New York Times best selling author of Endgame and financial newsletter publisher of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box
"I have watched Harry Dent's unique demographic approach to the economy and his forecasts for over 20 years. He has seen most of the key economic changes way ahead of most. In fact, he forecast the current economic crisis 20 years ago! He has spoken at many of my events around the world and has helped many prepare for the unprecedented economic challenges we are facing today. But perhaps the best thing about Harry is his very human, understandable and common sense approach to economics."
- Anthony Robbins, Entrepreneur, Author and Peak Performance Strategist
"You can't accuse Harry Dent of being a wimpy thinker. His new book is full of confident analysis and bold predictions. Whether he will be right about all of it, who can say? But his core theme is fascinating and provocative; his book is a delight."
William Bonner, President and CEO of Agora Inc.; author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt
"While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously."
David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Start Late, Finish Rich and Debt Free for Life
"The Great Crash Ahead" sounds ominous, but it doesn't have to be if you know what factors to look at when making new decisions about your career, your investments and your business model. The old remedies won't work anymore, but visionaries Harry Dent and Rodney Johnson provide their unique insight on how to make your future a prosperous one.
Ed Slott, CPA, author, IRA expert, creator of PBS Special "Stay Rich Forever and Ever"
"Dent is the reigning expert in using sophisticated demographic models to see around the economic corner. He saw the boom of the 1990s and warned that a bust would come in 2008 forward. Now he tells us the worst is not over. Harry makes a clear and compelling case for what could be a tough time ahead."
Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Product Details
- 9781451641547
- Publisher:
- Free Press
- Publication date:
- 09/20/2011
- Pages:
- 368
- Product dimensions:
- 6.32(w) x 9.26(h) x 1.10(d)
Read an Excerpt
The Great Crash Ahead
Imagine that someone very close to you, someone who is part of your everyday life and upon whom you depend, is a drug addict. The person goes "cold turkey" one day and inevitably begins to suffer symptoms of withdrawal and detox. Along comes the drug dealer and he begins throwing not just more drugs, but harder, more addictive drugs at this person. Do you chase away the drug dealer and nurse your friend through detox, knowing that this is a difficult period but a necessary part of the process? Or do you welcome the drug dealer and actually cheer as more drugs are taken? This might sound a bit outrageous, but it is exactly what we are experiencing in our economy! The patient/friend is the economy in which we all live; the drugs are debt, interest rates, and printed money; and the drug dealers are central bankers and the federal government. In a strange, perverse world, our markets are cheering as the patient is given more of what caused the illness in the first place!
In The Great Depression Ahead (Free Press, 2008), we forecast a strong rebound in the American economy in response to government intervention quickly followed by a vicious downturn. In October 2010, we shifted our view that the markets would weaken largely as a result of declining economic trends; instead, the markets have been perverted by the massive buildup of government debt, previously unfathomable amounts of stimulus, and ultra-low interest rates. Out of desperation in the face of a total financial meltdown, in late 2008 the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), the central banking system of the United States, dropped short-term interest rates to zero. The Fed also created a first program of "qualitative easing" (QE1), which allowed banks to pledge potentially bad mortgage loans as security so that these lenders were able to borrow hard cash and thereby bolster reserves. The economy continued to fail. As this first stimulus program began to falter in 2010 (as we forecast in The Great Depression Ahead), the Fed brought out a second quantitative easing (QE2), again basically the printing of money out of thin air. The two major devices that the Fed has to stimulate the economy (beyond fiscal stimulus from the Treasury) are: (1) lowering the Fed funds rate, and (2) printing to buy Treasuries or other bonds in the open market, which injects more money into the system.
In normal times, the Fed relies on lowering short-term rates to stimulate borrowing. Think of this as like giving the economy a cup of coffee or even a minor stimulating drug, such as speed. It revs up the system short term but probably won't do any long-term damage. However, in this latest downturn, the Fed thought it necessary to do even more. Only in exceptional instances will the Fed print a significant number of new dollars to buy, and for good reason. This powerful tool is very dangerous—akin to giving the economy a much more addictive drug, such as crack. The Fed has printed more than $2 trillion in new dollars, and QE3 looks likely in 2012 now that Treasury bond rates are so low with the flight of bondholders out of Europe and into the US.
As part of the qualitative easing in late 2008, the Fed accepted mortgage bonds of questionable quality as collateral from banks in exchange for cash, which the banks used to replenish their reserves. But those pledges had to be paid back in short order. Realizing that banks with large loans from the Fed were in just as bad a shape as banks with mortgage bonds, the Fed changed its approach in spring 2009. Instead of holding the questionable mortgage bonds as collateral, the Fed began a program of simply buying these assets from the banks outright. Overall, the Fed bought from banks $1.4 trillion in mortgage securities, mostly Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, and bought as much as $0.5 trillion in Treasury bonds. This outright purchasing from banks gave the banks much-needed capital as their loan losses mounted. But that wasn't enough! After this program ended in April 2010 and the markets began to sputter, the Fed reemerged with its second program, in which it bought an additional $600 billion in Treasury bonds in the open market from November 2010 through June 2011. These purchases increased the total assets and cumulative stimulus from the Fed to about $2.8 trillion! That does not count other stimulus programs, including bailouts, government tax rebates and credits, Cash for Clunkers, housing credits, the cut in the Social Security tax for 2011, and many loan and debt guarantees, the costs of which were in the trillions on their own, although much of the bailout monies have been paid back.
These breathtaking moves may seem like a massive effort to "solve" our economic woes, but they are not; they are window dressing. As our work clearly has shown, the natural order is for booms to be followed by busts. What happens when the economy fails again as demographic trends continue to slow, especially after late 2012, when the top 10% who control 44% of income and peak 5 years later than the average baby boomer in late 2007 drop off in spending as well?
It would be one thing if this injection of money went largely into lending and spending that bolstered the economy, eventually driving up tax revenues to help make up for the debt, but that has not happened. Bank reserves have risen by over $1.5 trillion, while business lending has barely moved off of its crisis lows. Consumer loans clearly have declined as well. Banks (and other investors) who sell their bonds to the Fed simply turn around and invest in riskier assets, like high-yield bonds, stocks, and commodities. Such investments lead only to greater speculation and greater bubbles in all investments outside of real estate! When does it ever end?
Lowering short-term rates merely makes borrowing and lending more attractive without expanding money supply directly. Lower rates also encourage banks to borrow short term and invest in longer-term Treasuries, which keeps rates lower than they would normally be. QE literally prints money out of nothing and currently is being used to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage securities. This activity puts money directly into the system; as a result, longer-term rates are pushed even further down by adding more demand (the Fed's buying of bonds) in an attempt to bolster borrowing and asset prices. And the Fed has used QE more than once: a second round, QE2 in late 2010, and a third is likely in 2012. Using QE is like using the drug crack, whereas lowering short-term rates is more like using the drug speed.
The first side effect of these drugs is the sudden drop in the value of the dollar, which results in higher import, food, and gas costs for everyday consumers. The second is a return of bubblelike market activity in everything from stocks to junk bonds to commodities. Such bubbles will burst eventually, critically injuring aging investors and retirement funds. The third is lower returns on fixed income, which directly impacts retirement portfolios and affects the ability of the largest segment of aging consumers to spend, forcing them to chase riskier investments. The rise in Treasury bond rates toward 3.5%+ that we have been forecasting has not occurred yet. QE2 was successful in forcing down interest rates on Treasury bonds, and then came the flight in capital from Southern Europe into US Treasury bonds that forced them even lower, to well below 2.0% on 10-year Treasuries despite 3% GDP growth and 3%+ inflation. Such bond yields should be 4%+ in 2012 without QE. A QE3 in 2012 in reaction to likely slowing in growth after QE2 wears off is likely to spark rising rates down the road, first from inflation fears and later from deficit concerns and credit quality as deficits persist and economic growth is disappointing considering this massive amount of stimulus.
The Fed stimulus will continue to fail, Treasury bond rates will ultimately rise as in Europe, and the overarching trends of slowing demographics and debt deleveraging will set back in. The great economic crisis of 2008 will likely return in the summer of 2013 or by mid- to late 2013, at the latest, and will be even worse.
If the Chinese and other foreign governments stop buying our bonds, either the Fed must buy many more of these bonds (out of desperation), or bond yields will rise sharply. Thus far, US bond purchasing by the Fed has greatly outweighed the reduction in buying by the Chinese. But if the Fed keeps buying, you can bet that the global bond markets eventually will see this as a sign of weakness and will force rates up anyway as they perceive rising risks. Again, the biggest risks are in the bubbles in stocks, commodities, and bonds that have been building since March 2009. Such bubbles set up investors and retirement plans for another crash and brutal loss in net worth between 2013 and 2015.
Although QE2 depressed the dollar at first, the dollar, like Treasury bond rates, has been rising off and on since early 2011 into mid-2012, which goes against what most investors expected. This shows that such investors don't understand the new environment, which will be deflationary. In contrast, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury bonds would appreciate in early 2011, and likely will again from mid-2013 forward.
Our government and most governments around the world have been on the Keynesian plan ever since the early 1970s, when the last long-term boom came to an end. John Maynard Keynes first came up with his theory of the government stimulating to offset private economic slowdowns in the 1930s. Every time the economy slows, the Fed lowers short-term rates and implements fiscal stimulus that it hopes will rekindle consumer and business spending. We have been living off economic "speed" for a long time, since the 1970s, about the same time that baby boomers discovered recreational drugs as well. While drugs failed to resolve the social issues of the 1970s, the parallel economic approach has always seemed to work, because it coincided with the growth of the massive baby boom generation's demand for spending and credit, especially on housing as baby boomers grew into adulthood and matured.
However, the Keynesian approach has three problems. First, the economy never gets to "exhale" and fully balance out the excesses in debt and expansion from each growth surge, so it gets less efficient and trim—like getting more obese. Second, lower interest rates feed bubbles in asset prices, as we saw first in tech stocks, then in housing, then in emerging markets and commodities. When these bubbles burst, the Fed stimulates again, and that only drives the next set of bubbles. When does it ever end? Our economy just gets more perverse and volatile and less functional—just like any drug addict.
Why the "Great Crash Ahead"? The Fed has now stimulated a third and even more perverse bubble, which is not driven by fundamental trends. At least during the previous bubbles, productivity was growing rapidly, fueled by new technologies and demographic growth. The current bubbles have only government stimulus as fuel because economic trends are slowing, which is why the stimulus has had such disappointing results each time. QE1 got us to 4% growth before it failed. Then QE2 took us to 3% growth in late 2011 before petering out. A QE3 in 2012 is likely to fizzle out at more like 2% growth by early to mid-2013. The current bubbles in stocks, gold, commodities, and junk bonds will burst and bring back the housing, mortgage, and banking crisis even stronger, greatly injuring investors, retirees, and pension/retirement plans again.
Chart I-1: Dow Megaphone Pattern, 1995–2015
Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2012
Chart I-1 initially came from the March 2012 issue of our newsletter, The HS Dent Forecast, and it is probably the most critical chart for illustrating the actual impact of the desperate Fed stimulus on stocks. It shows three major bubbles that also form a larger megaphone pattern, which indicates a massive fall in the coming years, most likely between mid-2013 and early 2015. In this pattern we see three bubbles with each one peaking a little higher, and with each crash bottoming a little lower. The first bubble was around tech stocks and peaked in early 2000. A huge crash followed, especially in tech stocks, which bubbled the most. The NASDAQ was down 76%. That crash formed the B wave down. Very low short-term rates after the 1990–1991 recession and the S&L crisis helped to fuel that bubble. The second, broader and higher bubble peaked in October 2007, with an early 2006 peak in real estate and a mid-2008 peak in commodities on each side. The greatest bubble here occurred in emerging markets and oil. That bubble was fueled by short-term rates, pushed down to 1% by the Fed. The crash of 2008/early 2009 formed the next D wave down. Now we are seeing a final bubble in stocks (US, Europe, China, and emerging markets), commodities, and bonds (especially junk bonds, which have rallied 90% since late 2008—nearly as much as the 111% rally in the Dow since March 2009). The NASDAQ has rallied 147% and emerging markets have rallied 138% at their top. Gold has rallied as much as 169% since late 2008 and silver a whopping 465% when it topped near $50 in April of 2011. This final bubble is likely to peak at a Dow 14,600 or a bit higher by mid-2013. Then a larger crash, likely triggered by a blow-up in Spain and southern Europe, is likely in early to mid-2013 and the Dow is likely to bottom by late 2014 or a bit later between 5,600 and 6,000. The ultimate bottom in the Dow is likely to be more like 3,300 to 3,800 between 2020 and 2022 before the next global demographic boom begins.
With the Fed keeping short-term and long-term interest rates low, speculators, investors, and pension funds are chasing higher yields on everything from corporate and junk bonds to commodities to stocks. Never have all of these investments gone up at the same time for so long. As in the 2008 crash, when everything goes up together, they then go down together, and there is nowhere to hide and no way to diversify. The US dollar index and US Treasury bonds were the safe haven in the last crash and will very likely be again. Gold and silver will not protect you, as they did not in late 2008!
The ultimate lows between 3,300 and 3,800 by 2022 or so line up with our observations that almost all bubbles either go back to where they started or fall even a little lower. The stock bubble started in late 1994 at 3,800 on the Dow, so we have been expecting 3,800 or lower for an ultimate bottom. The housing bubble started in early 2000. Home prices would have to fall 55% from the top to get back to those levels. The more a bubble grows, the more it attracts investors, but such a bubble also will fall farther, creating another wave of havoc.
It would be one thing if the government's plan actually worked, creating sustainable economic growth so that high debt and asset prices would not be such a burden. However, the demographic and debt deleveraging trends we face are massive and will make sustaining a recovery even more difficult than for Japan in the 1990s, where a demographically induced crash that started in the early 1990s is still in force. Today the GDP of Japan is little higher than it was in 1990, 21 years ago! The big picture is very simple: adding stimulus and debt always works at first but never works long term. It takes more and more stimulus to create less and less effect, until the economy finally dies or near dies from the side effects—just like an addict on drugs!
Chart I-2 tells the story about as well as anything could. For every additional dollar of debt we have added to the economy since 1958, we have generally gotten progressively less growth in GDP. This graph from the Economist goes only through early 2010. If the graph were updated, we would probably be right near zero effect presently. Hence, as potent as the newer quantitative easing policy is, it is not likely to revive the economy substantially at this late stage of debt abuse. Consumers have not been buying houses even though long-term mortgage rates have been at unprecedented lows, like 3.5% to 4.0%, in late 2011! Why would another 0.5% lower make much difference? Lowering mortgage rates from 8% to 5% makes a big difference, but going from 4.0% to 3.5% doesn't make as much of a difference. What happens if this bold and aggressive stimulus program starts to backfire, with rising inflation and high deficits coupled with long-term rates rising instead of falling, much as occurred in 2010 in Europe? Rising interest rates will be the final nail in the feeblest housing market since the 1930s, as we have been warning for years in our newsletter. The real impact of QE now is simply to encourage more speculation in asset prices. The money injected into the economy has to go somewhere, and lower long-term rates increase the value of all assets, including stocks, commodities, and real estate. The money clearly is not increasing lending.
A substantial rise in Treasury bond rates will be the first sign that the endless stimuli and QE plans are over. If governments keep stimulating when the bond markets start to worry about inflation and/or credit quality, then rates rise even faster. This checkmates a government much as happened to one country after the next in Southern Europe.
There comes a point at which drug doses a person takes are so high that they could kill the user. Think of Michael Jackson in recent times. He wasn't partying night after night. He was just trying to get a peaceful night's rest. The cumulative toxicity from many years of increasing painkillers and drug use caused his body constantly to attempt to "detox," making it harder and harder for him to sleep. Such high internal activity must have made him feel like he had fire engines inside, always rushing to the next fire. After many years of such drug abuse, only a very potent anesthetic was able to help Jackson sleep, but the high dosage finally killed him.
Chart I-2: GDP per Dollar of Debt
It's a drag
US GDP growth in $ per additional $ of debt*
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve; The Economist. *All domestic nonfinancial debt 3-year moving average
© The Economist Newspaper Limited, "Repent at Leisure," June 4, 2010
Corporations have hundreds of billions of dollars on their balance sheets that they don't invest in their businesses, as they are uncertain about future growth, taxes, health care costs, and everything else. But lower interest rates give corporations the incentive to borrow money, which they use to finance acquisitions, to buy back equity to create greater earnings per share, or simply to pay key shareholders, which also drives up stock prices. The junk bond trend, which started with Michael Milken in the 1980s, most likely experienced a final, sharp spike in prices (drop in yields) in 2011. The recent surge was fueled by dramatically falling junk bond yields due to QE and the temporary recovery from government stimulus after the spike in junk bond yields in late 2008. Should companies be leveraging up internally in such a dangerous time as today's economy? Of course not! But low long-term rates are proving irresistible to companies, which then take on more debt, creating greater leverage and risk at a time when they are already drowning in debt. Thus, lower interest rates are not the cure for an economy that is too much in debt. But everyone wants more crack once they are hooked! Corporate credit ratings have continued to decline since 1980 as a result of higher debt.
What happens when the economy finally slows more markedly and these junk bond yields spike again, as they did in late 2008? We already forecast that this will likely begin more seriously as early as late 2012 or early 2013, with stock markets starting to correct again. More stimulus . . . more debt . . . more bubbles . . . When will it ever end? Bubbles always end! The final bursting of this unprecedented world bubble should mean the end of Keynesian economics—finally!
This comes back to our most basic argument. A 25-year trend in rising baby boom spending that we cover in Chapter 2 (1983–2007 on a 46-year lag from rising births from 1937 to 1961) has peaked, and economic growth will slow overall into at least 2020 and perhaps until as late as 2023, especially after 2012, when the richest 10% peak in spending later. This declining wave of spending is not something you can fight with a few trillion dollars in stimulus here and there—and the US government has already gone further than we thought the bond markets would allow, after the European "debt call" in April 2010 by the "bond vigilantes." A similar rise in interest rates is finally about to come to the United States, as we forecast, albeit later than we originally would have expected. It would take tens of trillions of dollars to offset such natural downward trends and a necessary shift to saving for an aging generation that is the deepest in debt of any generation in history. More important for the near term, the greatest debt and credit bubble in history peaked in 2008, at $56 trillion in private and government debt plus a bare minimum (in the most rosy economic assumptions) of $46 trillion in unfunded liabilities for Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid ($66 trillion, according to private analysts like Mary Meeker). The United States faces a total indebtedness of at least $102 trillion, seven times GDP at the top in 2008 and as much as $122 trillion, or almost 9 times GDP, under more realistic assumptions! By way of comparison, our total indebtedness reached just two times GDP at the top of the Roaring '20s boom. Our total private credit reached $42 trillion in 2008. This number more than doubled from 2000 to 2008, which means $22 trillion in debt was added to our economy within 8 short years in the private sector alone. In 2008, private debt was more than four times the size of our government debt, excluding unfunded entitlement liabilities. This private debt will continue to deleverage for years to come, and at a faster pace than government debt rises when the economy slows again . . . creating deflation, not inflation.
The seemingly most intelligent and awarded of Keynesian economists around the world, such as Paul Krugman, argue that the government has not stimulated enough. That would make sense in light of the US banking crisis of the 1930s, in which the economy melted down to extremes without help from the government. So why not be smarter this time and stimulate more and sooner? Because it wouldn't be smart to ignore the crack addiction analogy that occurs in real life. The more the stimulant is applied, the less it works, and it will kill you in the end. You end up worse, not better, before you are forced to crash and go through detox!
Japan has stimulated the equivalent of just over 100% of its GDP since its bubble boom peaked in 1990; that would be the equivalent of about $15 trillion for the United States. Japan's stock market still fell over 80%, real estate fell over 60%, and the country is still in an on-again, off-again slow growth and recession economy 22 years later. Such stimulus eased the pain but caused government debt to skyrocket to the highest levels by far among the countries in the developed world. Japan has the fastest aging society, to boot. Private debt did not get written off nearly as much as it could have been, so the Japanese system still has too much toxicity and needs to detox further. Therefore, we clearly don't think that this is the policy that the United States should follow. European governments started moving in the right direction long term—toward austerity—but then joined the stimulus party with their own $1.3 trillion of QE in late 2011 and early 2012.
The Japanese are not public complainers, but they have become very frugal. Japanese lifestyles have been compromised substantially, with no light at the end of the tunnel. Government debt ratios are high, savings rates are plummeting, and government benefit payments are rising, due to the rapid aging of the Japanese population. The New York Times recently featured an article that showed a man who bought a condo 17 years ago for $500,000—after the real estate bubble had burst and was deflating, so not near the top of the real estate market! After paying down his mortgage for 17 years, he sold the unit—and still owed $110,000. The man now is likely to have to go into personal bankruptcy. That's why we don't advise you or your kids to buy a home now, despite the recent fall in prices. Why didn't the Japanese government allow and/or force the banks to write down these debts to sustainable levels? They simply didn't want to go into detox or admit their mistakes in letting the bubble happen in the first place, much as the US government is doing today, protecting the banking system over the interests of everyday citizens!
In contrast to the long, drawn-out approach used by the Japanese government, the United States responded to the recent economic crisis with a typical "shock and awe" policy, stimulating very strongly right at the beginning. Thus, most of the "ammunition" was used up early on, creating even greater bubbles and imbalances than those that caused the initial crisis—which only feeds the next, worse crisis. But now the United States has less ammunition with which to fight!
We have proposed that the government not use stimulus to try to revive an economy that is already mortally wounded and needs to deleverage and rebalance. Instead, the US government should use government debt to help cover the losses that banks incur from actually writing down loans to their real values. Such a move would have the potential to save more than $1 trillion per year in interest and principal payments by consumers and businesses for decades to come. That is a real stimulus plan focused on the root cause of this economic crisis: an out-of-control debt bubble and the aging of the massive baby boom generation, which has led to a decrease in consumer spending.
Ultimately, whether through years of free-market debt deleveraging, as occurred from 1930 to 1933 (and as has been prevented thus far largely by the government's stimulus program in the current crisis), or through a government-driven program that actively encourages or forces banks to write loans down to their real sustainable value, the result ultimately will be reduction of around $20 trillion of private debt, mostly mortgages and financial sector debt. This amount will represent 90% of the $22 trillion of private debt created in the debt bubble from 2000 to 2008. At 5% average interest rates, that would save consumers and businesses $1 trillion annually in interest and would reduce principal payments as well. That kind of stimulus keeps on paying. If the government wants to encourage write-offs and keep the best banks from going under, it may have to offer to cover, say, 33% of the loan write-offs, which could create trillions more dollars in stimulus. Having $3 of private debt written off for every $1 in government debt incurred is a great trade-off, especially given that interest rates on government debt tend to be lower than for other kinds of debt.
We will discuss the total debt picture in more detail in Chapters 3 and 4. The largest and most toxic debt we incurred was in the financial sector, which is now deleveraging the fastest; about $3.0 trillion in debt has been written off since 2008. Most of the $17 trillion in this sector went into real estate, in which prices will fall to near where they started or lower, just as in every bubble in history. Thus, the most deleveraging or elimination of debt should happen here. The business and consumer sectors have deleveraged only a little thus far, which clearly demonstrates how far we have to go in mortgage and debt write-downs. Since 2008, the total decline in these two sectors has been close to $1 trillion, for a total of $4.0 trillion in the private sector. In contrast, government debt has grown about $5.0 trillion since 2008. Thus far, the rise in government debt has been offset roughly by the fall in private debt, which is why the United States is sitting at a modest inflation rate, despite the greatest stimulus program in history. When the stimulus fails and the economy goes back into detox—which it really, really wants to do—then the private debt will deleverage much faster and more than the government debt will rise, leading to deflation.
Deflation is the only possible scenario in the decade ahead, albeit after further likely rising inflation first. This will be the Decade of Deflation, much like the 1930s. Why? Because deleveraging and deflation always follow debt and asset bubbles, such as happened in the 1820s, 1860s, and 1920s in the United States and in the 1980s in Japan; there are no exceptions in modern history! It is merely a matter of how long the US government and others can be allowed to keep stimulating to ease the pain and avoid the necessary detox. Rising Treasury bond rates will end the stimulus cycle, likely by mid-2013.
All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put Humpty together again.
—from an English nursery rhyme
Here is where we perhaps have the most shocking of our forecasts for the years ahead in this deflationary crisis: The US dollar will appreciate and be the safe haven—not gold, silver, the Euro, or the Swiss Franc. Chart I-3, which graphs the US dollar index from 1980 to 2011, shows that the US dollar was debased in the boom. It peaked in value in 1985 and has fallen nearly 60% in two major crashes. It was the massive creation of $42 trillion in private debt, which grew 2.65 times the growth of the GDP from 1983 to 2008, which created massive amounts of new dollars and devalued the US dollar. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the dollar has only moved sideways to up. During the actual meltdown of the financial system in late 2008 and early 2009, the dollar went up 23%! Gold and silver went down. Oil crashed most extremely. Stocks here and around the world all crashed. Real estate crashed. The dollar was the safe haven in late 2008, and it will be the safe haven for likely many years to come in the period of debt deleveraging ahead.
Chart I-3: US Dollar Index, 1980–2015
Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012
During the periods where there is the perception of a financial crisis, gold and silver rise. But when the crisis actually hits, they fall, and it is the dollar that rises. Why? During a financial meltdown, that massive $42 trillion in private debt will see major write-offs and restructuring, and that destroys dollars. By destroying dollars, you make them scarce and valuable again—you actually reverse the debt and credit bubble—and fewer dollars means fewer dollars chasing consumer goods, or deflation in prices, not inflation! Understanding the difference between deflation and inflation is the key to prospering in a crisis unlike any you have seen in your lifetime.
Deflation could come slowly, as it did in Japan due to high and consistent stimulus over time, or more likely it will come rapidly, as in the early 1930s, when the government did little more than lower short-term rates to stave off the pain of detox. In this cycle, the United States has embraced a "shock and awe" policy that at first was more effective than the policies of Japan but proved more dangerous long term, due to the bubbles the US approach is creating. Now that such an unprecedented, desperate, and aggressive program is starting to fail, it is likely to fail miserably, as it has only made our debt levels worse and has put off the necessary crisis and detox. We have been advocating a policy wherein the government creates only enough additional debt to cushion the write-down of much larger debts in the private sector, which should generate more than $1 trillion in lower interest and principal payments for consumers and businesses for years and decades into the future.
However, that policy is too sensible; it treats the real cause of this debt crisis, not the symptoms. And human nature is all about reacting to and treating the symptoms. Hence, this crisis and shift toward deleveraging debt and deflation will not happen voluntarily, just as any crack addict would not go into painful detox voluntarily. Such a policy will manifest only when the crisis overwhelms the US government and other governments—when the stimulus ultimately fails fully and housing prices and the economy fail again, in all likelihood triggered by the coming long-term interest rate spike.
This crisis is likely to be at its worst by early 2015, or by early 2016 at the latest, and only after stocks crash to between 3,300 and 5,600 on the Dow by the end of 2014, or 2015 at the latest. Home prices will fall by 55% to 65% from the top before this crisis is over. Also, the crash will be worldwide, not just in the United States and Europe, as the dramatic China bubble comes to an end. This book is about telling you how to prepare and prosper now that our long-standing forecast for the next deeper depression phase is beginning to occur. Hold on to your life jacket and climb into the lifeboat. The next few years and the next decade will be the most challenging you have ever seen or will see in your lifetime. The secret to prospering is to understand the very different nature of and rules for deflation, as opposed to the inflationary environment most of us have seen all of our lives. Even gold will not save you in this new deflationary era . . . in a world turned upside down!
You can get free access to Harry's very popular webinar "Understanding the Economy and What Lies Ahead" by registering at http://www.hsdent.com/webinar.
Meet the Author
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.
Rodney Johnson is the president of HS Dent, an independent economic research and investment management firm. He oversees the daily operations of the companies and is a regular contributor to the HS Forecast and the HS Dent Perspective. A graduate of Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University, Mr. Johnson is a frequent guest on radio and television programs to discuss economic changes in the United States and around the world.
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Very good book
In a time when most newsletter experts forecast that Inflation is locked in and unavoidable, this book makes a case for Deflation that demands serious consideration for anyone trying to be prepared. I highly recommend this book.
Dent uses demographic trends and predictable consumption patterns to explain the recession and our economic future. On one hand his predictions for the economy are bleak- slow/no growth, deflation and high unemployment for years - 2020 ish things will change - on the other hand he provides a couple of action items to survive the economic winter and be positioned to thrive in the boom which will follow. Highly recommend for any business owner or for that matter any adult who cares about their economic future


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Robert Packard
Robert "Bob" Packard, 84, husband of Mary Lou, of Canton, Pa., died Feb. 3, 2013.
A graveside service for family will be 11 a.m. Saturday at the Windfall Cemetery. The family will provide flowers. Pepper Funeral Home in Canton is assisting the family. A full obituary and condolences at www.pepperfuneralhomes.com.

subset: commoncrawl


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How Much Does Saffron Cost?
Saffron is a spice that has a sweet taste that is used in many various arabic, asian, pakistani, as well as other middle east countries. Found primarily in the Mediterranean, saffron spices can be found in your local Asian grocery store as well as your bigger based chains. The prices are going to greatly vary on the brand, where you purchase and other various factors.
"Saffron" (CC BY 2.0) by Guillaume Paumier
How much does saffron cost?
- On average, a pack of saffron is going to cost anywhere from $5 to as much as $30 per pack. It's going to depend greatly on the quality.
- By the pound, saffron tends to be the most expensive spice on the market. Requiring more than 150,000 flowers to produce a kilo, the price of saffron can range from $500 to as much as $4,500 per pound.
- The Spicy World Spanish Saffron comes in a 1 gram acrylic box. For each pack, it will cost anywhere from $7 to $10 per pack. For a pack of 3, the cost will be around $20 to $30.
- For the Frontier Culinary Spices, a pack of 1 will cost around $12 to $16 per spice pack. For a pack of 3, it will cost anywhere from $35 to $45.
- McCormick has a Spanish saffron that comes in a 0.06 ounce unit. This ranges anywhere from $13 to $22.
- For those that want packets, Hot Paella sells a pack of 5 for $5 to $10.
- According to an article on the UCC.edu website, retail prices for saffron can be as high as $315 per ounce or $5,040 per pound.
What is going to be included?
- Depending on the brand, most come with a container that you can use to disperse the spice itself.
- Some spices come with sample recipes as well that may be on the packaging itself.
- Today, Iran is a major producer. They produce more than 90 percent of the world's production. Once picked, saffron is immediately placed in air-tight containers. Saffron has a red tint based color that is slightly moist.
- Coming from a crocus flowering plant, this flower will only bloom in the fall. Growing higher than two inches, the burnt-orange parts of the flower are used for the spice.
What are the extra costs?
- Purchasing the Saffron online will more than likely have shipping charges as well. For those that have an Amazon Prime account, shipping is free on all purchases.
Tips to know:
- Saffron is going to come in two different forms. These forms are going to include powdered and threads. Since saffron can be used to make a dish look more appealing, it's best to know the two differences.
- Powered saffron should be the last type of spice that you should consider. The reason many avoid it is because you won't know how pure it is unless you personally know the supplier supplying it to you. If you insist on getting powdered saffron, consider doing it yourself.
- To create a liquid base, add up to five tablespoons of water. Bring it to a boil and let it sit in a pot. Leave it for a few minutes and place it in a jar once it looks like a liquid. To add flavor, consider adding vinegar or even wine instead of water.
- Be sure to know where your spice has originated from. Each spice is going to have it's own potency, so it's best to follow the recipes to ensure that it has been used properly. It's best to look for saffron that has been graded by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO.) This organized was formed to monitor the grade of saffron as it's shipped.
- Saffron is best stored in a cooler dry place that doesn't have light. Make sure that you steer it clear away from any type of moisture.
How can I save money?
- If you know that you're going to cook a lot of dishes, highly consider buying the spices in bulk. The more you purchase, the more you can save.
- The lower the quality, the less it's going to be. Be sure to watch the price tag as you will find that the cheaper saffron may not be as good.
- If you don't have the money to purchase saffron, consider other alternatives. These alternatives include annatto seeds, marigold blossoms, turmeric and safflower. All of these can have similar flavors at a fraction of the cost.
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Rick and Kathy Childs took 1st place with 10.08 lbs. of bass last week during a Powder Mill Night Tournament on Norris Lake. Runners-up were Brian Miller and John Carroll with 10.04 lbs., while David Hatfield and Robbie Powell placed 3rd with 9.00 lbs. Kathy Childs was big fish winner with a 4.07 lb. bass.
The following is a weekly summary of the fishing conditions on Norris Lake as reported by creel clerks from the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA).
After being above full pool for much of the spring and early summer months, the lake level is now 1,018.21 feet and falling. Surface temperatures remain in the mid 80s, although 65-degree water can be found 33 feet deep. The water is clear at all locations.
State wildlife commission welcomes new members
Jim Bledsoe of Jamestown, Harold Cannon of Lenoir City and Trey Teague of Jackson are the three new members of the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Commission (TWRC). The new appointees, who received their confirmations to the commission in late spring, attended an orientation session last week at the Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency (TWRA) state office.
The 10- and 11-year-old All-Stars became the first LaFollette team in that age group to qualify for the Tennessee Little League Softball Tournament when they recently traveled to Jonesborough for state play.
Jason Rutherford, who coached most of the girls on the LaFollette Skittles team during the regular season, said the trip was an eye-opening experience for his players.
After playing most of the summer against 9- and 10-year-olds, the LaFollette All-Stars had to move up a division in the tournament because they had a couple of older girls on their team.
Campbell County High School's football team participated in a four-team passing scrimmage Thursday at Alcoa.
The Cougars went up against Knoxville West, Jefferson County and seven-time defending state champion Alcoa in 7-on-7 passing situations.
"We did a lot better," said Campbell County coach Justin Price.
"That's the best we've looked all summer, offensively and defensively.
The Tri-City Little League Football program needs players ages 10-12 for its cutter and peewee teams. For more information, call 423-566-1400.
Former UT basketball player Damon Johnson will be conducting a summer camp at LaFollette Elementary School on Monday evenings from 6 -7:30 p.m. The price of each session is $20.
A black bear that suffered through three weeks of anguish due to having a plastic container stuck over its head is now safe and sound because of the persistence of a well-trained wildlife officer.
The lake level on Friday, July 22 was 1,019.27 feet, which is about half a foot lower than the previous week.
Copyright © 2016
The LaFollette Press is your source for local news, sports, events, and information in Campbell County and LaFollette, TN, and the surrounding area.


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Get an overview of this hotelHotel in Lancaster with free breakfast and fitness center
Situated in Lancaster, this hotel is within 1 mi (2 km) of Lancaster Mennonite Historical Society, Biblical Tabernacle Reproduction, and Tanger Outlets Lancaster. Dutch Wonderland and Harrisburg Area Community College are also within 2 mi (3 km).
Hotel Features
A fitness center, a 24-hour business center, and coffee/tea in a common area are available at this hotel. Free continental breakfast is provided, as well as free WiFi in public areas, free self parking, and a free manager's reception. Additionally, a business center, a meeting room, and dry cleaning are onsite.
Room Amenities
All 73 rooms offer free WiFi, coffee makers, and TVs with cable channels. Other amenities available to guests include free weekday newspapers, free local calls, and hair dryers.Information missing or incorrect? Tell us!Opens in a new window
Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Lancaster2045 Lincoln Hwy E Lancaster PA 17602
Hotel Amenities
Hotel Amenities
Public areas are equipped with complimentary high-speed wireless Internet access. This hotel offers access to a 24-hour business center and a meeting room. Guests are offered a complimentary breakfast each morning and a complimentary manager's reception is offered on select days. Event facilities measure 900 square feet (84 square meters). This business-friendly hotel also offers a fitness center, coffee/tea in a common area, and complimentary newspapers in the lobby. Onsite self parking is complimentary.
- Number of buildings/towers - 1
- Free WiFi
- Free RV, bus, truck parking
- 24-hour business center
- 24-hour front desk
- Express check-out
- Total number of rooms - 73
- Number of floors - 3
- Business center
- Coffee/tea in common areas
- Free newspapers in lobby
- Free breakfast
- Dry cleaning/laundry service
- Elevator/lift
- Fitness facilities
- Laundry facilities
- One meeting room
- RV, bus, truck parking
- Free self parking
- Conference space size (feet) - 900
- Conference space size (meters) - 84
- Free reception
Family Friendly Amenities
- Family Hotel
- Free Wi-Fi
- Rollaway/extra beds available
- Laundry facilities
- Cribs/infant beds (complimentary)
Available in all rooms: Free WiFi
Available in some public areas: Free WiFi
Free self parking, RV, bus, truck parking, Free RV, bus, truck parking
Room Amenities
- Free WiFi
- Free cribs/infant beds
- Rollaway/extra beds available
- Premium TV channels
- Air conditioning
- In-room climate control (air conditioning)
- Free weekday newspaper
- Phone
- Free local calls
- Coffee/tea maker
- Daily housekeeping
- Private bathroom
- Free toiletries
- Hair dryer
- Iron/ironing board
- Desk
- Cable TV service
- Television
Where to Eat
Guests are offered a complimentary continental breakfast each morning. The hotel offers a complimentary manager's reception on select days.
Nearby Things to Do
Recreational amenities at the hotel include a fitness center.
To make special requests for accessibility needs, please note them at check-out when you book your room.
Hotel Policies
Check-in time starts at 4 PM
Check-out time is noon
Payment types
Children and extra beds
- Children are welcome.
- Rollaway/extra beds are available for USD 10 per night.
- Free cribs (infant beds)!
- Pets allowed for an extra charge of USD 50 per accommodation (varies based on length of stay), plus a deposit of USD 100 per stay
- Dogs only
- 2 per room (up to 55 lb)
- Restrictions apply
- For more information contact the property at the number on the booking confirmation
You need to know
Extra-person charges may apply and vary depending on property policy.
Government-issued photo identification and a credit card or cash deposit are required at check-in for incidental charges.
Special requests are subject to availability upon check-in and may incur additional charges. Special requests cannot be guaranteed.
Optional extras
- Pet deposit: USD 100 per stay
- Pet fee: USD 50 per accommodation (varies based on length of stay)
- Rollaway bed fee: USD 10 per night
Hotel Name
- Hawthorn Suites Lancaster
- Hawthorn Suites Wyndham Hotel Lancaster
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Guests can arrange to bring pets by contacting the property directly, using the contact information on the booking confirmation (surcharges apply and can be found in the Fees section).


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Jump Rope T-shirt Design
This project was awarded to dan3678 for $53 AUD.Get free quotes for a project like this
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Project Description
Need a t-shirt design for upcoming Jump Rope Competitions. We need a good design which fits an A4 size. The design need to include a rope, the word "Jump Rope" and some skipping figures. As this is a design for t-shirts, you can only use 2 or 3 colors. I attach a sample design which was used for an American comp. We would love to have a design with a BANG.
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Here we have it, the range topping A-Class we've all been waiting for, the A45 AMG!
The A-Class has been tuned up by Mercedes' performance team, it's a 355bhp Porsche 911 eating machine. Yes that's right, this little bugger will leave a 911 behind!
Unlike all the other AMG models, which currently use either a V8 or V12, the new A45 AMG has a four-cylinder 2.0-litre turbo. The 355bhp engine boasts the highest horsepower-per-litre figure of any production car, and is hand-built by AMG.
The car also features a new AMG 4Matic four-wheel-drive system and a seven-speed automatic transmission, and flies from 0-62mph in just 4.6 seconds. That's half a second quicker than the manual BMW M135i hatchback and only a tenth slower than the C63 AMG.
But while the performance may be a match for the 6.3-litre V8 C-Class, AMG models are just as much about noise as they are acceleration. A turbocharged four-cylinder isn't naturally the most tuneful of engines, but Mercedes has fitted an AMG sports exhaust to help create some aural drama.
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AMG's new trademark two-bar grille is one tweak differentiating the A45 from a standard A-Class. There's also a chunky bodykit, a rear diffuser, some lightweight alloys and two chrome-plated exhausts. The interior gets sports seats finished in faux-leather, with red stitching. There are red seatbelts as well, and red highlights on all the air vents.
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Since you have little debt, live on 40k for a year and save the other 150k then buy a small house for cash.
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There are a lot of different reasons for why your score is in the mid 500's. It may be an easy fix to bring your score up. One of my mortgage partners specializes in your exact situation. He would be happy to consult with you.
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Seems there's some other issues here. The best suggestion I could give you is to sit down with a financial professional to reiew your credit to see what things are driving your credit scores down to that level. Is it due to errors? Even if you are making $190K, what is your disposible income? You can make $190K a year and have lots of money left after paying bills, but you lose it all at the casinos...you don't have enough left to buy anything for cash. In that I am not a financial professional, and based on what you state and what you don't state...if as Jim says, just be sure to pay stuff on time. After a specific period of time (I think it might be 12 months) your scores should drastically increase uless there's something else on the credit report.
Seek advice from a financial professional to analyse your credit report.
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or we try to identify a lender that will use you and you wife her score and only your income.
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If you have the income and she has the credit, it will be tough. If she has decent income, you can go for it in her name and add yours later. Any lender will be able to advise you. Let me know if you need a good one.
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2008 Toyota Tacoma Access Cab PreRunner 4dr Access Cab 6.1 ft. SB (2.7L 4cyl 5M)
I have had many toyotas over the years and the prerunner has continued to be a reliable vehicle. It gets good gas milage for a toyota tacoma and is a safe truck to drive. I expect to have it for many years.
The hooks in the bedliner are very functional. The look of the truck is very solid. It is also fun to drive.
The access doors are a pain for costco runs or anytime you need to load something with a car next to you. You need to open both the front and access door to get to the back. Thats when i should have gotten the crew cab. Back seat is not very comfortable for riding long distance in.
First, let me say, I love the seats, the driving position is perfect, not too low for me (I am 5'9"). Brakes are amazing, Brake Assist and Electronic Brake Force Distribution really work. Gas Mileage is good, 20 city and 24 highway. No squeaks, tight truck. The Stock stereo is OK. Now the bad news, the ride is punishing! It is jarring even over the small bumps! My wife loves it, I am giving it to her and buying something else!
Interior layout and seats. Gas mileage. Toyota reliability and resale. Brakes. The 5 speed manual is smooth as silk. The SR 5 package adds some nice touches
Please soften up the ride a little. I know it's a truck, but other trucks I have owned rode much smoother. Maybe it is the stock Dunlops?
I've had good luck with pickups in general, but this is my 1st Toyota. So far I couldn't be happier with my decision. Smooth, quiet and great fun to drive. The 2.7 has all the power I need and the Prerunner suspension looks beefy - like a truck should look!
Great looks, solid feel, Toyota reliability.
MP3 aux jack for the stereo (who doesn't have an iPod or MP3??), hoping for improved fuel economy as the engine breaks in.
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Meet your new all-weather scent. At first spray, it's fresh and grassy, with a hint of citrus and spice. But it mellows as is moves into a heart of lavender and coriander, settling on a warm base of sandalwood, amber, and musk.
This is another scent from English Laundry, whom I personally think put out a large collection of average to above-average scents. This one has a zesty/fresh scent that is seasonally appropriate. It doesn't have the depth/complexity or staying power of a cologne i would expect at this price point, and the packaging of the sample is plain cheap.3


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Currently browsing "Bipolar Disorder"
Observer Article
A Milestone in Federally Funded Behavioral Science
A special symposium celebrated the 20th anniversary of the US National Institutes of Health's Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research. ... More>
New Research From Clinical Psychological Science
A sample of new research exploring frustration of goal pursuit in euthymic bipolar disorder, nutritional interventions for mental health, and 5-HTTLPR and attention for emotion stimuli. ... More>
Frank to Speak on 'Relieving the Burden of Mood Disorders'
Ellen Frank, who has been recognized internationally for her clinical research on the assessment and treatment of mood disorders, will speak on relieving the burden of mental illness at the 2015 APS Annual Convention. ... More>
New Research From Clinical Psychological Science
A sample of research exploring learning, memory consolidation, and anxiety; attachment style, oxytocin, and social rejection; hypomania and vulnerability to intrusive imagery; and positive emotion regulation in bipolar disorder. ... More>
Link Between Bipolar Disorder and Circadian Rhythm
Using activity monitors, researchers discover that circadian rhythm instability is a particularly strong predictor for vulnerability to bipolar disorder. ... More>


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All hotels in Jaca, Spain
1 room, 2 adults
Calle Mayor 41, Jaca, Huesca, 22700, Spain, 1-877-214-4288
Hotel La Paz - Jaca
Lowest price$40
Hotel La Paz offers value-for-money Aragonian Pyrenees hotel accommodations, a stone's throw from Clock Tower and Jaca Cathedral. You'll also be within a short walk of Diocesan Museum of Jaca - Romanesque Art and Sarsa Hermitage.
A restaurant, an elevator (lift) and concierge services are offered at this hotel. Guests can also enjoy drinks as there is a bar/lounge.
A restaurant, an elevator (lift) and concierge services are offered at this hotel. Guests can also enjoy drinks as there is a bar/lounge.
Knowledgeable staff are available at the front desk 24 hours-a-day and can provide tour/ticket assistance. WiFi is available.
Value for money
Best value for money
Great location
Breakfast is average
More comfort would be nice
TripAdvisor Traveller Rating: 3
From 43 reviewsSee TripAdvisor reviews
Hotel La Paz - Jaca
Hotel Info: 1-877-214-4288from $40
- Triple Room
- Quadruple Room
- Single Room
- Double Room
Also popular with travelers from the USA
At a glance
Key facts
Hotel size
- This hotel has 35 rooms
- Check-in time starts at 2 PM
- Check-out time is noon
Required at check in
- Credit card or cash deposit required
- Government-issued photo ID required
Travelling with others
Extra people
- Roll-away beds available, charges may apply*
- WiFi in public areas *
- No parking
In the hotel
Food and drink
- Restaurant
- Bar/lounge
- Room service (during limited hours)
Things to do
- Arcade/game room
- 24-hour front desk
- Concierge services
- Tours/ticket assistance
- Elevator/lift
- Designated smoking areas
In the room
Home comforts
- In-room climate control (air conditioning)
- Air conditioning
Be entertained
- Pay movies
Stay connected
- Free newspaper
- Phone
Hotel La Paz - Jaca's small print
Also known as
- Hotel La Paz Jaca
- La Paz Jaca
Cash transactions at this property cannot exceed EUR 2500, due to national regulations. For further details, please contact the property using information in the booking confirmation.
Optional extras
WiFi is available in public areas for an extra charge
We have included all charges provided to us by this hotel. However, charges can vary, for example, based on length of stay or the room you book.


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A charming laid back place in the center of Playa del Carmen. 5 minutes walk to the beach, supermarkets and bus... More Info »
Hostel Che invites you to visit its new Casa Che B&B, by far the best located in Playa del Carmen. Only 50 meters... More Info »
Hostel Quinta Playa offers rooms for a great price without losing out on quality in Playa del Carmen. We have 6... More Info »
Welcome to the Popol Vuh, one of the first affordable accommodation, nestled in the best location in Playa del... More Info »
Hostel CHE, home away from home Excellent location only 3 blocks from the Caribbean Ocean and 2 blocks from the... More Info »
Hostel Vive la Vida is NEW in town. It´s a new building totally prepared for the international and modern traveler... More Info »
Hostel Rio Playa is located one block from the beach and half block from the famous '5ta Avenida' Fifth Avenue... More Info »
Hostel 3B is the new kid in town!!!!! The newest, the trendiest and cleanest hostel in Playa del Carmen for people... More Info »
Humble Bumble Hostel is well-located in Playa del Carmen. Humble Bumble Hostel offers a wide variety of options for... More Info »
Hotel El Hormiguero is a comfortable and friendly hotel in Playa del Carmen. We offer double, triple and family... More Info »
Located near 5th avenue in the heart of Playa del Carmen with mixed Mexican and European-style El Patio Hotel.... More Info »
Only 500 Mt. from the most exclusive area of Playa del Carmen, the famous 5th Avenue and 800 Mt. from the beautiful... More Info »
Located in central Playa del Carmen, in the heart of popular 5th Avenue and only 15 minutes' walk from Mamitas Beach,... More Info »
If you are looking to make new friends, meet people from all over the globe, be part of our little family or just... More Info »
The Yak is new in town, but we are about to change the rules! Crated by travelers that know what a traveler in Playa... More Info »
Managed, owned and operated by true travelers, Guacamundo was thought to be a first class hostel with the friendliest... More Info »
We are a modern style boutique hostel with a combination of dorm style rooms, private rooms and private ensuite... More Info »
Relax about what to do in the Riviera Maya and Playa del Carmen. Our "Homestal" welcomes you in Playa del Carmen... More Info »
Posada Mariposa is a recently remodeled 4 stars boutique hotel, a luxurious retreat for couples and families... More Info »
You find a cute and colorful Posada called El Refugio which has 11 rooms all with special and different touch... More Info »
Video guides, travel podcasts, city maps & free city guides. What to eat, where to stay and things to do and see - our travel guides have it all.Find a guide »
Amsterdam is a playground for the weird and wonderful. Sometimes nothing seems mundane in this buzzing city. There will always be a never-ending list of quirky and offbeat thing...Read more »
We offer the most comprehensive selection of hostels on the internet with over 33,000 great places to stay in 170 countries. The ultimate online resource for hostels everywhere.Find great value hostels »


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Sharon Davson is Australia's highest valued living artist.
Owning a spiritually and environmentally aware painting by Sharon Davson is a rare honour afforded to only a few in the world at a time. To date, Davson has created less than 120 career paintings, with almost all art by her since 1984 SOLD before being created.
It is almost impossible to buy a painting by her in a commercial art gallery or auction house. To acquire an original painting by Davson, you need to be in contact with the artist; or a collector/investor willing to sell a painting by her.
Davson is happy to travel to discuss in person creative concepts. After this, a collector/investor may need to be a little patient. As patience is rewarded, and part of the process of being involved with the creation of art by her that is specifically for you, your office or your major construction and hotel projects.
Paintings by Davson are prized possessions. Commissioned pieces and existing paintings by her can be acquired from six to eight figure dollar amounts. Works associated with The Davson Art Hotel / currently being commissioned small paintings, are to be more affordable.
Art by her, infused with a great love for the environment and the interconnections of all on our Earth and beyond, are loved and treasured inclusions in royal, celebrity, museum, corporate, investment and private collections.
Davson is one of a handful of women artists in the world with paintings in multi-million dollar sales values; and she is Australia's highest valued living artist. Art by her encompasses spirituality, well-being and the environment to cultivate positively thought provoking art; - compelling themes for greater harmony on our Earth.


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This cake was made to match the party decorations. Cake is iced in chocolate b/c and all the accents are made from fondant. I was trilled with the final product! TFL!
CakeCentral.com is the world's largest cake community for cake decorating professionals and enthusiasts.
(if this is a private computer)
Yes please, register now!


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You can encounter the weirdest stuff at the grocery store in the wee hours of the morning, but you probably haven't seen anything weirder than what turned up in the self-checkout aisle of one of UK grocer Tesco's stores at 1:30 in the morning: the severed head of a deer. [More]
Coffee Shop Owner: Quit Asking Me To Offer Suspended Coffees Already
Last week, we explained why we think that the "suspended coffee" movement that allegedly began in Naples, spread all over Bulgaria, and exploded on Facebook isn't such a hot idea. But don't just take it from us: the owner of an independent London coffee shop weighed in on the movement. Her take: it's insulting that people think independent coffee shops don't already help people who look like they could use a warm cup of coffee, and you should support your local indie shop. Well, that second part was predictable.
U.K. Health Officials Find "Beef" Lasagna Meals Containing 60%-100% Horse Meat
Our neighbors across the pond are caught in an equine-lover's nightmare: First, beef hamburgers on shelves were found to contain horse DNA and recalled, after authorities traced the contamination back to a couple processing plants. Burger King got caught up in it as well, although no burgers with horse in them made it to stores. And now the scandal has spread to frozen "beef" lasagna meals. [More]
Scourge Of Drunken Toddlers In Chain Restaurants Spreads To The UK
Here at the Consumerist, we've been at the forefront of reporting on incidents where chain restaurant personnel accidentally servem alcoholic beverages to very small children. We're sad to note that the phenomenon has crossed the Atlantic. A mother in Wales was out for lunch to celebrate her son's second birthday when she noticed that her toddler was making faces while drinking his juice. She took a sip herself, and found that the child had been drinking whiskey instead of his usual lime juice and water. A double, it seemed. They took him to the hospital for observation.
Sprint Isn't Sure Whether They Can Unlock My iPhone Or Not
In a few months, Jessica and her fiancé will move to his native London. This wasn't in her long-term plans when she bought an iPhone 4S and signed a contract with Sprint. Life happens. At least she will be able to keep her newish iPhone after unlocking it and swapping in a UK SIM card…right? Well, no. Maybe. No. Yes, but for $300. Nobody, including Sprint employees, seems to know what Sprint's actual policy is.
Department Store Ad Goes After Coveted Incontinent-But-Stylish Demographic
The British are known for their dry humor. And apparently for the folks at upscale UK department store Harvey Nichols, that dry sensibility has left its models all wet in the trousers.
Ad Authority Takes 9 Years To Get The Old "Sofa King" Joke
It may be a stereotype that it takes bureaucrats a long time to catch on to an obvious joke, but every once in a while that stereotype is reinforced.
UK City Forcing Taxi Drivers To Record All Passengers
You're probably familiar with the long-running HBO special "Taxicab Confessions," in which cab passengers –often under the influence of some sort of intoxicant — open their hearts, minds, and sometimes their blouses to drivers of taxis rigged with multiple hidden cameras. Now the UK city of Oxford is turning its entire fleet of cabs into rolling recording devices.
Driving Your Car Through The Door Is A Good Way To Get Banned From Every McDonald's In The UK
If you're not happy with the service at your McDonald's drive-thru, there are many, many ways to express your frustration. One that we most definitely do not recommend is repeatedly ramming your car into the building.
This McDonald's Video Takes Recruitment Propaganda To Hollywood Heights
This recruitment video for McDonald's is simply amazing. It is a full-on miniature drama tracing the arc of a young woman who starts at the bottom at McDonald's, overcoming the snark and condescension of her friends and her mother, and rises to become a floor manager who trains other new employees, joining part of a community of other happy workers. All who doubted her are forced to eat their words. The production is slick, with emotive cinematography and lots of rising crane shots. It should get the Oscar for best internal corporate propaganda.
Block Cuts Electricity Use By 15% By Chalking Meter Readings On Street
Residents of one block in Brighton in the UK are tracking their electricity usage via a giant infographic graffitied onto the street. In the three weeks the project has been running, electricity use has dropped 15%. Amazing the great good a little bit of feedback can do! In America people would probably just compete to see how big they could make the electricity drain go.
Breast Milk Ice Cream Confiscated From London Shop
When we wrote about the London ice cream shop that had made a frozen treat from human breast milk, some readers wondered about the legality and/or safety of such a product. Well, they weren't alone, as local authorities decided to confiscate the ice cream until those questions were resolved.
Bride Celebrates Wedding At KFC — 2 Decades After Mom & Dad Did The Same At McDonald's
After getting hitched at the register office in the English city of Bristol on Saturday, a pair of newlyweds and their party of 30 strolled on over to KFC to chow down on various forms of fried food. But for the new bride, having her wedding reception at a fast food joint wasn't just an inexpensive way to celebrate, it's also a family tradition.
Airport Introduces Hologram "Staff" Members
Rather than just running a plain ol' video or audio loop instructing travelers on liquid restrictions and other topics, Manchester Airport in the UK has unveiled a pair of holograms it hopes will speed up the lines at the security checkpoints.
Apple Calls Woman To Tell Her She's Won $10,000; Woman Hangs Up On Apple
While it's a good rule of thumb to hang up the phone on anyone who calls you to tell you that you won a contest, a woman in the UK almost found herself without a $10,000 prize when she didn't believe it was Apple on the other end of the line.
UK Asks McDonald's, Pepsi, KFC To Help Write Health Policy
In a move that seems as sensible as asking your creepy uncle who just got out of jail to babysit for the weekend, the UK is looking to such luminaries in the health food industry as McDonald's, KFC and Pepsi for assistance in writing government policy on obesity and other health problems.
Man Dies After Ingesting Enough Caffeine For 70 Energy Drinks
A 23-year-old man in the UK has passed away after he reportedly ingested "spoonfuls" of powdered caffeine at a party.
Which Is Worse To Find In Your KFC: Chicken Brain Or Kidney?
A KFC customer in the UK is fuming mad — and claims to have missed days of work due to mental distress — after he bit into his order of fried chicken only to find a bit of mystery material that appeared to be some sort of organ.


text:
McCartney, Matthew (2006) 'Can a Heterodox Economist Use Cross-country Growth Regressions.' Post-Autistic Economics Review .
Full text not available from this repository.
|Item Type:
|Journal Article
|SOAS Departments & Centres:
|Faculty of Law and Social Sciences > Department of Economics
|Depositing User:
|Mr Adam Field
|Date Deposited:
|09 Dec 2007 13:35
Item downloaded times since 09 Dec 2007 13:35.
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It seems like it is necessary to come out with lists like this every now and then.
In a world where we are always trying to figure out what's going on with which celebrities, athletes and other public figures—why don't we check up on some of the partners for today's NFL players?
Here are the twenty hottest women who are—or are at least rumored to be—the wives and girlfriends of modern-day players in the National Football League.


text:
The latest victim: sophomore Jarvis Jones.
"I might as well get it out there too [that] Jarvis Jones is out for the season as well," Stoops said in today's weekly media press conference. "He has a fractured heel, so he won't be available either."
He exits the right tackle position, which leaves the Sooners in a perilous state now, if it wasn't already in one.
So, now how does the line shake up?
"It's Ben Habern, Stephen Good, Tavaris Jeffries is back from a family tragedy last week," Stoops said. "You know all the guys, Cory Brandon, Trent Williams, Brian Lepak, Tyler Evans. We don't have many, but we'll hopefully have five. I'm sure Coach Wilson will train Eric Mensik maybe a little bit at tackle to try and help as well."
It has been a shakeup all year, and now it only gets shakier.


text: David Zweig David Zweig has worked at Time Inc. and Dow Jones and co-founded Salon.com. He was most recently senior editor of the World Business Academy, an international research and education institute dedicated to promoting responsibility in business. He currently consults on improving the performance of executive groups. Become a Fan × BECOME A FAN Get updates about David Zweig and recommended reads from Simon & Schuster. Plus, get a FREE eBook when you sign up! Email Address Free eBook available to NEW subscribers only. Offer redeemable at Simon & Schuster's ebook fulfillment partner.Offer expires in three months, unless otherwise indicated. See full terms and conditions. By clicking SIGN UP, I acknowledge that I have read and agreed to the Privacy Policy and the Terms of Use. Books by this Author Money for Nothing By John Gillespie and David Zweig By John Gillespie and David Zweig Money for Nothing The world of CEOs and boards has become an entitled insiders' club—virtually free of accountability—and the abject failure of our corporate leaders to police themselves is costing Americans trillions and seriously undermining the strength of our economy. Whereas boards are supposed to act as watchdogs, guarding shareholders' interests, they have become enabling lapdogs to CEOs, who are aided and abetted in their pursuit of outrageous pay and unfettered power by a bevy of... Read more about this book Read more Video Get the straight talk on corporate boards from author John Gillespie Demand real change in a badly broken system, and see how the game is played in author John Gillespie's MONEY FOR NOTHING. Link: http://www.simonandschuster.com:80/videos/Get-the-straight-talk-on-corporate-boards-from/c8U_S75P82K_ Get a FREE eBook when you join our mailing list. Plus, receive updates about David Zweig,recommended reads and more from Simon & Schuster. Email Address Free eBook available to NEW subscribers only. Offer redeemable at Simon & Schuster's ebook fulfillment partner.Offer expires in three months, unless otherwise indicated.See full terms and conditions and this month's choices.


text:
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Date: 1900 ca.
Description: Invoice of the John Pritzlaff Hardware Company of Milwaukee with an engraved illustration of the company warehouse.
Description: Letterhead stationery of Wendell Anderson, the mayor of La Crosse, with an engraving of city hall.
Date: 1961 after
Description: First page of a booklet containing the by-laws of The United Automobile Workers, International Foundry Wage and Hour Council.
Description: Letterhead stationery of David S. Rose, the mayor of Milwaukee, showing an engraving of Milwaukee City Hall.
Date: 1922-09-14
Description: Document certifying that articles of incorporation for Green Bay Football Club were received by the Register of Deeds and filed with the Department of Stat...
Date: 1918
Description: Neal Harrington was assigned to the American Expeditionary Forces in October 1918. He was sent to France with the 20th Engineering Corp as a 2nd lieutenant...
Date: 1919 ca.
Description: Third page of a four-page pamphlet advertising Alfred Lawson and, by extension, his line of airliners. Reproduces the second half of a letter from the Aeri...
Date: 1949
Description: Front cover of International Harvester Company's annual report, featuring a color photograph of a semi-truck driven along a road through rocky terrain.
Date: 1952-02-28
Description: A liquor permit issued to Lewis Arms in the state of Utah at the age of 24.
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Date: 1972
Description: Letterhead for the Commandos Project I organization.
Date: 1976-07
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Date: 1920-09-13
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Date: 1950-03-30
Description: Green Bay Packers letterhead dated March 30th. The content of the letter is detailing a future Green Bay Packers stock drive and is sent from Lee Joannes.
Description: Fourth page of a four-page pamphlet advertising Alfred Lawson and, by extension, his line of airliners. Includes eight photographs and drawings of Lawson A...
Date: 1935-12-28
Description: A letter to M.A. Wertheimer from John M. Hancock detailing a business plan for Lehman Brothers.
Date: 1995
Description: Front cover of the "CyberSpace PR Report" newsletter from August/September.
Date: 1968
Description: Certificate of Merit presented to Father James E. Groppi of Milwaukee on January 7, 1968, for his work as Advisor of the Milwaukee NAACP Youth Council. The...
Date: 1925 ca.
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During the mid 1960's, Mrs Evelyn Smith, a local resident, began feeding the dolphins from a small jetty near her home on the Leschenault Inlet (directly south of the Discovery Centre). Unfortunately, she passed away in the early 70's ceasing any regular feeding of the dolphins she befriended. Some dolphins continued to be fed by the public from areas nearby. However it wasn't until 1989 that a dolphin specialist was hired by the newly established Bunbury Dolphin Trust to continue this tradition and begin feeding and studying the local dolphins of Koombana Bay.
From this work came the establishment of the Interaction Zone in 1990 and the Dolphin Discovery Centre in 1994 to allow tourists and members of the community to interact, understand and enjoy the group of five to six dolphins that regularly visit this Zone.
We don't clearly understand why the dolphins continue to visit the Zone today however research does suggest that the small amount of food they receive as a reward for their visit is not the only attraction. There are many dolphins that visit the Zone regularly that do not receive any fish and many of them stay for extended periods of time for interaction with the human visitors.
Sick and injured dolphins also treat the beach as a haven, with some repeatedly visiting during periods of illness or injury.
A weekly dolphin visitation chart is maintained on site as a guide for people who visit the Centre.
The Dolphin Discovery Centre has finished stage one of its redevelopment to include new aquariums, the world's first Digital Dolphinarium, a 3D short movie, beach wheelchair access and cafe. The DDC will continue to grow and increase its resources to further make its mark on the tourism industry and to continue to care and conserve the Koombana Bay dolphins.
Students from schools across the South West will come together next Tuesday (6th September) as part of Kids Teaching Kids Week 2016. Following on from the success of Bunbury's inaugural Kids Teaching
The whales are back! Reports of the first whale sighting off Bunbury occurred on the weekend marking what experts believe to be the busiest whale migration on record. Check out the latest Marine Matters
Sorry about the corny title for this blog but really it is...it's SUPERDOLPHIN! Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, SUPERDOLPHIN appeared in Koombana Bay last weekend to the delight of our swim


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Rate Springs Memorial Hospital
Ratings for Springs Memorial Hospital
Unqualified nursing care in ER and on floor. ER doctors have been dismissive on several i occasions. One instance I was sent home from ER after begging to stay... 45 minutes later I returned in an ambulance after my family thought I died at home. I had a stroke and spent several days in hospital. On another occasion was sent by cardiologist for possible heart attack. I had acid reflux but endured a heart Cath although I had no symptoms of heart issues. The orders were lost at the hospital causing me to spend an extra day. The cardiologist didn't remember sending me as he asked why u was there getting a heart Cath during the procedure. Many terrifying stories including an ER nurse who couldn't follow the color code on heart electrodes so my friend who took me to ER pushed her out of the way and fixed them while requesting a different nurse. Scareeeeee place!!!!
Submitted March 21, 2016 | flag
Some Terrible cnas not caring for patients just looking for a paycheck my mom was dying and there was one they called D on the fifthor sixth floor ,she made it a point to aggitate my mom,that had medicine induced physcosis.mo mental doctor to treat such patients at this hospital.hate this hospital!
Submitted Sept. 5, 2013 | flag
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The Complete National Geographic on 160-GB Hard Drive –
Running out of bookshelf space for all of those old National Geographic magazines but just can't seem to let them go (I personally have about 96 mags and counting)? Well here's your chance to recoup that space and grab up 120 years of Nat Geo history. The National Geographic Society has recently released their entire history of magazines in a nifty little 160GB hard drive. 120 years of amazing discoveries, fascinating maps, and the world's best photography with The Complete National Geographic. You get all that plus a spare 100GB for your own files to boot. The hard drive collection is available from the National Geographic Store for $199.95.
Keeping Up With the CES Hoopla –
If you are a gadget geek like me then you certainly know all about CES, the Consumer Electronics Show, that takes place every year in Las Vegas. CES is the place to be to check out anything and everything that will be coming out in the coming year. I have attended on numerous occasions and it is truly a spectacle to behold. Sadly, I won't be there tomorrow when the geekfest begins so I will have to depend on the good folks over at Engadget to keep me up to speed with all the latest and greatest. Engadget is my go-to site for all the latest news in electronics and they have set up a double-wide trailer right in the CES parking lot so that they can be on top of all the breaking news. You can follow them on Twitter or check out their special CES page to keep up with all the goings on.
Speaking of Gadgets –
My buddy Terry White has put together not one, but two Top 10 lists for 2009. Over at Terry's Tech Blog, Terry has a list of his Top 10 gadgets like the iPhone 3Gs, the Nikon D700, and more. He then went and did the same thing for iPhone Apps at his new BestAppSite blog. Terry has listed some very cool apps that you are going to want to help pimp out your iPhone or iPod Touch.
Calling All Up and Coming Photographers –
The Hearst Corporation is now accepting entries for their Hearst 8X10, which is an "international competition saluting the next generation of talent, which will play an important role in the future of magazines, media, the web, design and photography." The competition is open to U.S. and international freelance, amateur and professional photographers and students between the ages of 18 and 35. There is no fee for entry and all submissions must be received between now and May 31, 2010. The winners will have their work shown in an exhibition at the Hearst gallery as well as having it featured on Hearst.com and Hearst8x10.com. You can find out all the details here.
That's it for today. Have yourself a great Wednesday and remember to bundle up. It's coldddd out there!