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Let me share some of the ads I found in the latest issue of the Miami New Times:
- "Want your condo deposit back? Want out of your contract? You may have rights!"
- "Condo deposit problems? You may have legal rights to get it back!"
Maybe I'm biased. This is Miami, after all. Like many hot coastal markets, Miami is a former speedster that's now in a funk. The condo-building cranes dotting the skyline are bowing their heads in dormant defeat.
Still, I didn't hesitate to blast WCI Communities (NYSE: WCI ) for rejecting Carl Icahn's $22-a-share buyout pitch back in May. The stock now trades at one-third of that dissed offer. I was right to be bearish.
Before that, I singled out leading homebuilder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL ) as one of three stocks to sell in 2006. In what turned out to be a respectable year for the market, with the S&P 500 notching a 14% gain, Toll shares fell by 8%. I was right to be bearish.
So why am I suddenly wrong to be bearish now? I'm not. In fact, if I set aside my free weekly local read and fetch national headlines, this is what I see:
- Lennar (NYSE: LEN ) posted the worst quarter in its 53-year history last month.
- D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI ) shocked investors on Tuesday by announcing a 48% cancellation rate on new home orders.
- Last week, Centex (NYSE: CTX ) talked down its sales targets, while warning that it would take a nearly $1 billion charge to write down the value of its assets.
Your inner vulture may instinctively assume that the permeating pessimism is a sign that things can't get any worse. Do yourself a favor and cage that bird. It can get worse. It will get worse. Too many investors have been burned by approaching homebuilders as a turnaround sector under that exact flawed assumption. You can't turn around while you're still turning down, my friend.
Don't take it from me. Take it from the people with the most to lose. The National Association of Home Builders has a housing-market index to gauge its outlook for near-term home sales. On Tuesday, that index hit a historic low. Before you come back with "buy low, sell high," keep in mind that the index has declined for eight consecutive months.
Then you can turn to the realty industry. The National Association of Realtors expects new home sales to fall by 23% this year. You have to go back 10 years to find a year with fewer home sales. With many of the leading developers posting even steeper declines in their backlogs, expect that figure to get even bleaker in 2008.
So pull up a chart on leading homebuilders like Toll, Pulte (NYSE: PHM ) , and NVR (NYSE: NVR ) . Despite the recent dips, see how much higher they're all trading now than they were in 1997? And remember, things will get worse.
Granted, that may be a flimsy argument. The well-positioned homebuilders are in better financial shape now than they were back then. Consolidation has strengthened the heavies, while bankruptcies have obliterated the pretenders. Homes are also selling at higher prices, though let's not forget that the Commerce Department announced last month that the median home price fell by 7.5% year over year in August -- the biggest percentage decline in 37 years.
I won't suggest that the residential real estate developers will revisit those 1997 price levels. I'm simply suggesting that there's no reason for the shares to head higher.
Don't buy these companies. Not now. At least the unlucky bulls of the past had graces like low trailing P/E multiples and attractive price-to-book ratios. That's all gone now. Earnings have become losses, and you're not a developer if you haven't taken a jackhammer to your book value in writing down your shareholder equity.
I promise to look at my friend Anders' bullish argument with an open mind, but it won't be easy. Not with all these caged vultures and sleeping cranes looming overhead.


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Fixed-Price - Entry Level ($) - Est. Budget: $200 - PostedSkills: PhoneGap Android Android SDK Core Java
The work is strictly for individuals who are available for work from Monday. Do not apply otherwise. If you meet the above requirement wire, freelance from Monday, in the beginning of your bid. The work is to create an android app which would control, light switches remotely. You need to be able to integrate the wifi switch using data provided by our other team. members. Must have experience networking, as the app would work with wifi. If you can do Iphone app or know phone gap that is an advantage.

subset: commoncrawl


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Martin Goldenbaum is a German singer-songwriter and this is his 2016 EP Aktualisiert.
Caleidoscopia is the Carsten Dahl Experience's fourth album since their formation in 2007. It all began when renowned Danish jazz pianist Carsten Dahl decided to gather some of his favorite musicians from the Danish jazz stage for a line-up in what he called a "spiritual and musical vision pointing in a lyrical direction and towards abstract music".


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Global outlook: OPEC says world economy seeing 'slow and uneven recovery'
Oil rises as US approves Iraq air strikes
08 August 2014 04:19 GMT
Global oil demand 'set for 2015 boost'
11 July 2014 08:51 GMT
Saudi Arabia raises oil output
09 July 2014 11:02 GMT
Libyan and Iraqi hopes put pressure on crude
04 July 2014 12:00 GMT
New export markets 'reshaping geopolitics'
16 June 2014 11:22 GMT
By Bill Lehane and Reuters reports
08 August 2014 14:43 GMT
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The first acts for the Temple House Music And Arts Festival 2011 have been announced with tickets details revealed as well.
The Saw Doctors, Something Happens, Andrew Strong, The Walls, Intereference and DJ Wool aka Glen Brady will all perform across the Irish festival's three days.
Winner of Best New Festival at the European Festival Awards, the event will once again be held in the grounds of the Temple House Estate near Ballymote, Sligo, from 10-12 June.
Early bird tickets go on sale this Friday (4 February), starting at 99EUR for a three-day ticket with camping.
Day tickets are priced at 50EUR. Prices will increase from 7 March, with a three-day camping ticket rising to 120EUR.
A ticket link will appear here when available.