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Off the Carpet: It's half-time in the 2014-2015 Oscar race
We've officially reached the half-way mark of 2014. This time a year ago the only Oscar players on the table were Sundance debut "Before Midnight" and Cannes debuts "Nebraska" and "Inside Llewyn Davis," give or take a "Croods," "Great Gatsby," "Lone Ranger" or an "Iron Man 3" that would pick up support outside of the major categories. So what does the year have to show for itself so far this time around?
Sundance feels like it might have an off year this season, though screenplay hopes and more abound for films like "Boyhood" and "Dear White People." "Whiplash" could find a stride depending on how Sony Pictures Classics' slate shakes out for them, but as ever, the year's first big splash for new films will make more of an impression in the documentary feature category than anywhere else.
Not long after things wrapped up in Park City, Warner Bros. released Phil Lord and Chris Miller's "The LEGO Movie." Fans of this one are loud and proud and probably in favor of screenplay recognition. At minimum we can expect it to figure into the animated feature film race, while the studio could have fun with a Best Original Song campaign for earworm "Everything is Awesome."
In February, the Berlinale brought the premiere of Wes Anderson's "Moonrise Kingdom" follow-up, "The Grand Budapest Hotel," with a commercial release not long after. A critical smash that played like gangbusters at the art house box office, the film was pegged early on as the year's first serious Oscar player. But is it part and parcel of a fresh new spirit from Anderson (which has yielded awards love for films like "Fantastic Mr. Fox" and the aforementioned "Kingdom"), or is it too far on the filmmaker's unique spectrum to register in a number of categories? I have some doubts myself.
"Boyhood" also popped back up at the Berlinale, landing Richard Linklater the Silver Bear (Best Director) prize. The film is a July release, so more in due time, but is IFC Films ready to really put in what it takes to stand out in the awards season? Or can the film survive on its already mythical stature? Questions…
March brought Paramount's "Noah" from director Darren Aronofsky. A noble effort from a filmmaker who struggled greatly with yet another studio to produce his ambitious vision, the film will get some campaign firepower from the studio. Already Paramount has set screenings specifically for Academy members, particularly to spotlight the craft accomplishments. The film seemed to be divisive on arrival, but mostly the strong opponents and proponents were just really vocal on their opposing fringes. Critics more or less went with it without a lot of fuss, so there is a playing field to work with here.
The summer movie season starts earlier and earlier as of late, and this year it was "Captain America: The Winter Soldier" firing the first shots way back in the first week of April. The Marvel sequel proved to be one of the studio's most well-received productions to date, but none of these films has sparked outside of the crafts categories and that doesn't look likely to change any time soon.
Jonathan Glazer's "Under the Skin" finally hit in April, too, after a Telluride 2013 debut. A24 surely sees the writing on the wall where a film like this is concerned — it's not exactly up the Academy's alley. But critics groups could keep it in a few conversations, at least, come year's end. If they feel so bold, of course; lately it seems these groups just line up behind the same handful of players. And speaking of A24, Steven Knight's "Locke" also hit theaters in April. There could be a Best Actor campaign for Tom Hardy worth playing with there.
The summer blockbusters "officially" arrived in May with films like "The Amazing Spider-Man 2," "Godzilla," "X-Men: Days of Future Past" and "Maleficent." These films historically register in categories like Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects, if at all. The summer season is the octane period for the industry, flexing a lot of craft muscle while looking to pay for some of the riskier efforts under the tent. But few were worth writing home about. I remain convinced that "Godzilla" is one of the events of the year, a visionary piece of blockbuster filmmaking. But it will be lucky to break out of the summer actioner Oscar box and skirt the conversations of Best Film Editing and Best Original Score, let alone reach greater heights.
In Contention, Off the Carpet, Academy Awards, Boyhood, Dear White People, Whiplash, The LEGO Movie, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Noah, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Under The Skin, Locke, Godzilla, Foxcatcher, Mr. Turner, Mommy, Maps to the Stars, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Edge Of Tomorrow, Transformers: Age of Extinction, The Immigrant, Filth, Jersey Boys
jessied (guest)For very obviously different reasons I thoroughly enjoyed Budapest Hotel and the latest X-Men entry, but so far this years feels like an Oscar wasteland with nothing on the horizon that looks to be overwhelming ...June 30, 2014 at 12:02PM ESTReply to Comment
Expression EtcWhy is Mirren in the Chastain spot?June 30, 2014 at 12:49PM ESTReply to Comment
Aji (guest)I'm surprised you're not predicted Ed Norton in Birdman in supporting.June 30, 2014 at 1:03PM ESTReply to Comment
Liz 1.0I don't think "The Fault in Our Stars" is going to have enough staying power to get Shailene Woodley in. It was definitely popular, but it (the movie, not the book) doesn't seem like it's going to become the kind of cultural phenomenon that "Love Story" was.
I'm surprised to see Rosamund Pike in supporting. Unless the book's undergone some massive reworking, she seems like an obvious lead to me, unless people are thinking it's a "Constant Gardener" sort of situation? But I don't think it's the same thing here, although it's hard to get into specifics without spoilers.
"Foxcatcher" actually seems fairly low-ranked a few places. No Bennett Miller I guess I could understand (although I'd put him ahead of David Ayer without a second thought), but no screenplay? Interesting.June 30, 2014 at 1:04PM ESTReply to Comment
R (guest)Men, Women and Children got renamed. It's Pale Blue Dot now.June 30, 2014 at 1:10PM ESTReply to Comment
Stergios (guest)"The Grand Budapest Hotel" is by far the greatest film I've seen the whole year. Wes Anderson films' quirky and subversive nature doesn't exactly stick with Academy's taste, but there's still hope, especially after its unexpected commercial success. James McAvoy is phenomenal in "Filth", but yet again, the nature of the film and his role in it make me unfortunately to exclude the possibility of him being rewarded by the Academy for something like that. Such a shame. The same goes for Scarlett Johansson's mesmerizing turn in the masterful "Under the skin". And of all the films released in 2014, "The Immigrant" contains the greatest female performance of the last five years, the one of the incomparable Marion Cotillard as Ewa Cybulska. If Cotillard doesn't get her second Oscar nomination this year for her heartbreaking tour de force as a Polish immigrant in '20s New York, there's simply no justice at all in this world we live in. It's almost inconceivable that she hasn't won her second Oscar yet. For Christ's sake, she wasn't even nominated for "Rust and bone" or "Nine". I mean, come on, how on Earth can she not be nominated for "The Immigrant"? It feels absolutely insane. Her performance there is gigantic, to say the least. It doesn't even feel like a performance... That's just acting of the highest order. Cotillard is the best actress ever born (better than Katharine Hepburn, better than Meryl Streep, better than any woman who ever attempted to be an actress) and she should have had at least 15 oscar wins by now. And let's be honest, shall we? How can any performance by an actress be put next to a Marion Cotillard performance (let alone the one she delivers in "The Immigrant") and being preferred? It seems almost irrational to me.June 30, 2014 at 1:12PM ESTReply to Comment
KateThe nature of the film/role is the least of the problems in McAvoy's case. It premiered VOD in the US and only made like $29,000 theatrically. Add in pretty terrible reviews from major US critics and it's obvious he won't even be in the conversation for end-of-the-year US critical attention, let alone awards-body attention.June 30, 2014 at 2:07PM EST
StergiosUnfortunately, Kate, I strongly believe that it's the nature of both the film and McAvoy's role that led to a release and a critical response like this. We all know that the industry and many major U.S. critics snub shamelessly films of daring ideas, experimental freshness and thought-provoking narrative like "Filth". And people rarely decide on watching them in theaters. It's disheartening, but it's the truth.June 30, 2014 at 6:08PM EST
KateWell, I very much disagree with that. The "nature" and content of the film and McAvoy in it is very similar to both Bad Lieutenant movies, and they were both more successful critically and financially.
But to be honest, I thought Filth was dated, near-incompetent dreck.June 30, 2014 at 6:14PM EST
SJGSo glad to see I'm not the only one who considers Marion Cotillard probably the greatest working actress in film. I still remember watching "Big Fish" (which was the first time I saw her) and thinking "My god that woman is going to win an Oscar someday!"
Sadly, she still hasn't managed a second nomination, despite awards caliber work in nearly everything she's done... I totally agree with your list, and would unhesitatingly add Inception, Public Enemies, and Midnight in Paris to the list of movies that she seemed to have been totally overlooked for, despite turning out work that outclassed any number of buzzy roles in those years.June 30, 2014 at 8:02PM EST
StergiosOk, Kate, I totally respect your opinion. Personally, I think that "Filth" was a terrific film and easily the best Welsh adaptation on screen since "Trainspotting". To me, it deserved a bigger success, both critically and commercially and apart from that I really feel that it's not the kind of film that can work easily for everyone, let alone members of the Academy. Frankly, I'm pretty sure that films that unfortunately films that subversive as "Filth" and "Bad Lieutenant" are can be pretty divisive with both critics and the audience. Sometimes they can sit well with both, sometimes they don't. There are far too many reasons for both to happen to be mentioned here, but yes, I definitely think that the content of "Filth" was the most important factor for its failure with the audience, as well as a bunch of major U.S. critics. Just my opinion, though.June 30, 2014 at 10:31PM EST
StergiosSJG, what can I say, I couldn't agree more with you on everything you wrote there. I dig all of your additions, I strongly believe that Marion Cotillard is worthy of an Oscar win for pretty much everything she's done thus far. Not only did she indeed ouclass any other performance that could compete with her work in "Inception", "Public Enemies" and "Midnight in Paris" but also she can't stop doing it over and over again. Every single a movie featuring her, she just kills it. And I mean every single time. She's like a force of nature, she tops everything and everyone when she vanishes into a character. Her range is truly unbelievable and the ease with which she dives into a character something extraordinary. Everytime she's on screen, she's simply hypnotic. She immerses herself into her each new role in a way you think it's impossible for an actor to do so. And frankly in a way no other actor, male or female, in the history of mankind has managed to do so. It's as if the soul of her character has penetrated into every part of her body. I simply cannot explain how the hell she is able to do something like that. I'm a movies lover by birth, I've watched thousands of movies thus far, but in my whole life, I have never seen an actress or an actor like Marion Cotillard. There's obviously not a limit to the depth she can bring into a role. He work in "The Immigrant" is spectacular - there aren't probably any adjectives strong enough to describe it. It's the kind of performance that will surely be counted among some of the greatest film acting of all time, the kind of performance that gets better and better with repeated viewings (and I've seen the film twice already). She inhabits her role of Ewa so completely, it ends up extremely scary. It doesn't feel like a performance at all. You find yourself thinking you're watching the most crucial parts of her character's tormented existence unfolding in front of your eyes. No-holds-barred, Cotillard dares to abandon herself into her every role (I've seen her entire filmography, so I feel free to say this) in a way no actress in the history of cinema can claim she ever did. She's literally otherworldly as an actress and it's shame that she has never been nominated again for an Oscar after grabbing her first one back in 2008 for giving the best female performance ever put on screen in "La vie en rose". I mean, seriously? She's the most shining example of uncompromising brilliance in acting. This year, with two highly praised and definitely towering performances in both "The immigrant" and "Two days, one night" and the juiciest female role ever written from William Shakespeare, the one of Lady Macbeth in the upcoming "Macbeth" by Justin Kurzel, I don't even want to imagine the possibility of her being snubbed again. I really hope she ends up being nominated and winning, but I have my doubts, after watching the Academy snubbing her unrelentlessly all these years, after her win. Marion Cotillard is the goddess of cinema. An actress of technique, emotion, theater roots and screen magnetism like no other in the history of time. It's disheartening that she keeps on being snubbed from the Oscars since 2008 again and again. And totally unreasonable.June 30, 2014 at 10:48PM EST
GuyLodge"How can any performance by an actress be put next to a Marion Cotillard performance (let alone the one she delivers in "The Immigrant") and being preferred?"
Yep, Gena Rowlands in A Woman Under the Influence, Bibi Andersson in Persona, Vivien Leigh in A Streetcar Named Desire, Falconetti in The Passion of Joan of Arc... all dwarfed by the might of Marion Cotillard in The Dark Knight Rises.
I think Cotillard's terrific too, and I'd be thrilled to see her nominated for The Immigrant, but let's not get hysterical.July 1, 2014 at 9:58AM ESTLike (4)Latest Likes:4 Anonymous
StergiosGuylodge, I'm right there with you, man. I think there has been a misunderstanding. I really adore every performance you mention there and the list of great female performances in cinema is really endless (Isabelle Huppert in "The Piano Teacher", Meryl Streep in "Sophie's choice"Harriet Andersson in "Through a Glass Darkly", just to add a few more). When I say that it feels absurd to me that any performance can be preferred instead of Marion Cotillard's performance, I'm not talking about every performance she has given thus far topping any other performance in the history of time. That would be way too much, even if personally I regard her as the greatest female actress of all time and I think that she's Oscar-worthy in everything she has done in her career (and that includes her portrayal of Miranda Tate / Tahlia Al Ghul in "The Dark Knight Rises", but that's just my opinion, of course). I'm talking about this year and her phenomenal work in "The Immigrant" and her already praised work from "Two Days, One Night" (from reviews in Cannes) and "Macbeth" (from the footage shown there). I think it will be almost scandalous to watch her be snubbed again for three performances that seem definitely Oscar-worthy. I'm absolutely sure she kills it in the Dardennes and Kurzel's films and I'm in awe of her work in James Gray's "The Immigrant". Personally, I strongly believe that there has never been an actor, male or female, in the history of mankind, that could manage to disappear into their roles so completely and constantly, subserve the audience's expectations and combine technique with emotion and theater background with screen charisma so impeccably. There are certainly a few (Daniel Day-Lewis, Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Katharine Hepburn, Cate Blanchett, Michael Shannon, just to name some of them), but really, none of them can match her otherworldly talent. At least, that's what I think. I'm a lover of cinema by birth, I've seen thousand s of movies and I'm pretty sure about what I'm talking about. But again, it's just my opinion.July 1, 2014 at 12:52PM EST
Matthew StarrI gotta say this has been both a superb first half of the year for movies and also the best summer for Hollywood in years. Grand Budapest, Snowpiercer, The Immigrant, Locke, Under the Skin, Enemy - it's rare to have a Jan-Jun like that. Not to mention I have yet to see Obvious Child, Blue Ruin, Stranger by the Lake, Borgman, The Double, Ida etc etc etc...
But yeah even Hollywood has been producing quality stuff (Winter Soldier, Godzilla, 22 Jump Street, Dragon 2, Edge of Tomorrow). Almost makes me forget the last few summers.
Finally, Kris I know you hate when someone leaves a comment like "where is X person on X list" but Tilda Swinton is downright awesome in Snowpiercer. She should be on the best supporting actress list on principle.June 30, 2014 at 1:31PM ESTReply to CommentLike (2)Latest Likes:Liz 1.01 Anonymous
Liz 1.0Except for maybe the number 10 pick, I'd be satisfied if my top 10 list as of right now ends up being the same at the end of the year. Obviously, I hope that doesn't happen (because who wants to go six months without seeing at least one great movie?), but it's still thrilling to see how strong the first half of the year has been.
And "Borgman" is great. Definitely catch that one when you get a chance.June 30, 2014 at 1:45PM EST
Matthew StarrI plan on watching that and all the others I mentioned but I am still catching up on 2013!June 30, 2014 at 1:48PM EST
John G.I know these are just for fun at this stage in the race, but you seem positively bullish on Fury. Number 2 on the big board and a director nod to boot seems like a lot for a movie I thought was more of a "wait and see" proposition. Unless you know something we don't ?
Unbroken makes a handsome number 1 for now, and it checks the boxes. Jolie's an industry favorite, especially after this summer's box office, and it has the prestige factor. WW2 subject matter and an international vibe. Plus Kris loves Deakins. Might turn out to be more of a placeholder at #1 than a betting favorite though.
Year looks a little soft right now, to be honest. I feel that something could really break through. There's nothing too much fun in supporting actor, for example, which there usually is. No heavyweight lead actress candidates either. This field can definitely reshape itself in a huge way.
Birdman certainly looks poised to be the esoteric favorite here. I'm anticipating it will be heavily championed on this blog.June 30, 2014 at 1:44PM ESTReply to Comment
Joe S.Kris--Do you have a sense of how likely it is that "Trash" gets released this year? Most of the other early-prediction websites I've seen have it pegged for this year, but I'm never sure how to judge those claims.June 30, 2014 at 2:13PM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapleyI'm sort of expecting next year. It's Working Title, which more often goes to Focus Features, and I don't know that they'd want to compete with "Theory of Everything" but I'm not sure how it's going to pan out. For now, like "Carol," I just have it on deck as a potential 2014 release.June 30, 2014 at 2:32PM EST
Lucas"Trash" is mostly spoken in Portuguese according to the audience of the test screenings, the leads are 3 unknown brazilian boys and not the famous Hollywood actors, so I don't think this movie will have big chances anyway. And the U.S. audience hates subtitles, so it won't be a box office hit either.June 30, 2014 at 4:56PM EST
red_wineI think The Grand Budapest Hotel should WIN Best Picture, its that good. Indiewire polled 122 critics to decide the best film of the year in the first half and Grand Budapest was the clear winner. The Variety critics also did their middle of the year piece and agreed that Budapest is the best of the year.
Amongst English language cinema Budapest is peerless. It is Anderson's magnum opus, a perfectly achieved and executed picture and it would be a crying shame if it atleast not nominated for Best Picture.
Come year end, Budapest will absolutely be one of the most acclaimed film of the year. It will be nearly on every single Top 10 out there.
The film has to be nominated across the board.
I find your Best Director picks really curious. Interstellar??? Fury???? These films might be hits but I don't see these noms panning out.
And if Inarritu's one shot stunt is even a reasonable success, he'll instantly become one of the favorites to win Best Director much like countryman Curon who swept the season when it came to directing prizes.
Ah but Wes Anderson, it is about time he gets nominated for his direction. Budapest is a staggering achievement in direction.June 30, 2014 at 2:13PM ESTReply to CommentLike (1)Latest Likes:SJG
KristopherTapleyYeah, I just don't get the out-pouriong of love for this one, but glad you have a favorite.June 30, 2014 at 2:32PM EST
red_wineYou didn't like it Kris?June 30, 2014 at 2:50PM EST
KristopherTapleyNo I thought it was back to Zissou territory for the most part. I have been very selective in my Anderson appreciation, though. Bottle Rocket (more or less), Rushmore, Fox and Moonrise Kingdom are really it. Never liked Royal Tenenbaums or Zissou or Darjeeling.June 30, 2014 at 2:57PM EST
red_wineWell Tenenbaums is regarded as one of the greatest films ever made since the turn of the century.
I think Budapest is different in the sense that inspite of being a very eccentric Andersony caper kinda film, it is somehow very moving, it almost has an emotional abstraction that is purely cerebral, it kinda makes you emotional about a way of life/ a civilization you never even might have experienced.
And even besides that, Anderson's blocking is awe-inspiring. Its a study in shot construction and camera movement. It is almost too conspicuously accomplished as an auteur film.June 30, 2014 at 3:13PM EST
KristopherTapley"Well Tenenbaums is regarded as one of the greatest films ever made since the turn of the century."
Even if this were true, I'm not sure it would matter to me anyway. I don't go around forming my opinions based on others', nor should you.
I agree with you that Budapest finds an intriguing sense of empathy that many of Anderson's films have lacked.
And I'd call it a study in Anderson's shot construction, certainly, which has always been incredibly refined and balanced. I was most impressed by the film's production design but overall, it didn't hit the high notes of "Rushmore" and "Moonrise Kingdom," in my opinion.June 30, 2014 at 3:20PM EST
GuyLodgeKris has a point here, RedWine. Many of your comments hinge on telling us how well a film is regarded -- which is already plain to see, and not always a dealbreaker.July 1, 2014 at 10:04AM EST
Tyler (guest)Just spitballing... (maybe i should just leave it to the experts! lol)
The Imitation Game
Inherent Vice
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Christopher Nolan, Interstellar
Angelina Jolie, Unbroken
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Jack O'Connell, Unbroken
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (If she's lead)
Shailene Woodley, The Fault In Our Stars
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
Edward Norton, Birdman
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
JK Simmons, Whiplash
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Kristin Scott Thomas, Suite Francaise
Patrica Arquette, Boyhood
Felicity Jones, Theory of Everything
Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Inherent Vice
Gone Girl
The Imitation GameJune 30, 2014 at 2:57PM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapleyEveryone's an "expert" this early in the game.June 30, 2014 at 3:00PM EST
AliceChristoph Waltz is lead in Big Eyes, not supporting! I don't believe that Harvey Weinstein will be so stupid to put in as supporting again (he was co-lead in Django Unchained), especially because he won't win a third Oscar now anyway!
Maybe Matthias Schoenaerts will be Weinstein's choice for the supporting actor category for Suite Française.
And based on Angelina's last movie as a director, Unbroken will be the 'Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom' / 'J. Edgar' of this year! people are overestimating this movie!June 30, 2014 at 4:42PM EST
Expression Etc@ Alice
Campaigning Waltz in Supporting has not been stupid for the last two times he's been co-lead in a movie. And it does not matter if he does not win. Securing a third nomination after two wins from two nominations is a bigger deal.June 30, 2014 at 9:30PM EST
Keil_S.I haven't visited this site since before the past Oscar ceremony, but when I saw your lists of contenders for the new year I had to find a place to air my immediate, urgent concern:
How is Boyhood not listed on your current Top 10 contenders for Best Picture? There's no true reason it shouldn't be, especially since it's already been seen and some of those others have not.
If you already start leaving it off lists like these, it makes it that much easier for spineless voters to ignore it when the race heats up later this year.June 30, 2014 at 4:40PM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapleyThere is a reason: IFC Films. Wonderful haven for independent filmmakers, not historically an awards-savvy company.
And I'm not concerned with lazy voters looking at a list like this and then deciding that's how they're going to vote. These are predictions, not suggestions.June 30, 2014 at 5:06PM EST
Paul (guest)I'll throw out two movies I think deserve recognition in the same categories thus far: both Enemy and Under the Skin should be considered for both score and cinematography (I know the latter was highlighted in the other post).June 30, 2014 at 5:55PM ESTReply to Comment
AD (guest)Ive read the script,for Fury and can understand Kris' bullishness on its awards chances. I think Ayers is back in End of Watch territory here and the cinematography from the trailer looks great. Plus dont discount Academy love for Brad Pitt. From a recent test screening Logan Lerman apparently made a very strong impression. Based on the script his role is actually a co-lead but they will probably slide him down to supportingJune 30, 2014 at 6:23PM ESTReply to Comment
stan (guest)I'm just curious how different Inherent Vice will be to The Master. Will it be as difficult?June 30, 2014 at 6:47PM ESTReply to Comment
AndrejKris, about predicting Chris Nolan for directing: have you heard/seen anything from Interstellar, or you're going with a "if it's good, maybe this time..." kind of vibe for now?June 30, 2014 at 7:33PM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapley90% of this is just guesswork at this point.June 30, 2014 at 7:55PM ESTLike (2)Latest Likes:Andrej1 Anonymous
BKA (guest)I love Oscar season and was thrilled to see this article. Unfortunately the copy is in need of editing. I gave up before the ending. Sometimes less is more.June 30, 2014 at 9:13PM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapleyGuess you weren't too thrilled to see the article after all, then.July 1, 2014 at 12:24AM ESTLike (2)Latest Likes:GuyLodge1 Anonymous
BKAGood point, KristopherTapley. Guess the thrilled sensation didn't last.July 1, 2014 at 6:57PM EST
Guest (guest)Wow Kris, I'm surprised at how high your predictions are for Fury. David Ayer's films have never have been universally acclaimed (End of Watch is his highest rated film, sitting at 70 on metacritic), and even with the new war milieu, I don't see him mining any new territory. That trailer seemed safe to a fault. Are you hearing things internally, or is that Logan Lerman prediction just based on residual admiration from his performance in Perks of Being a Wallflower?
Also, I wonder if there's any chance Ralph Fiennes gets pushed as supporting actor. Given how huge the ensemble is, I wouldn't consider it an egregious designation.July 1, 2014 at 1:30AM ESTReply to Comment
KristopherTapleyLogan is said to be the stand-out in the film, actually. But I'm hanging it out there for it. John Lesher has great taste and I think Ayer is ready to break out. That someone like Pitt hitched up to it says something to me. And I think it looks to be unique in the genre.
Sony doesn't have much else to play with, either. We'll see.
(Funnily enough, we have some "Fury" stuff coming at you tomorrow.)July 1, 2014 at 2:00AM EST
GuyLodgeGreat primer to start the season.
On the Best Foreign Language Film side, I'd be mighty surprised if Russia submits "Leviathan", given that it looks likely to be banned there (not just on political grounds, but on the basis of their bizarre new profanity laws), and was recently pulled from the Moscow Film Festival.
In recent years, internal politics have prevented Russia submitting their strongest or most internationally acclaimed films -- let's not forget that Zvyagintsev's last film, "Elena," was passed over in favour of "Burnt by the Sun 2."July 1, 2014 at 10:13AM ESTReply to Comment
Liz 1.0Guy, what do you think about Poland submitting "Ida"? It was released in Poland last October, which makes it eligible for this year (right?). It's a bit of a surprise hit here in the U.S., which can certainly only help. I don't know if it's exactly up the Academy's alley, but it would be a solid decision on Poland's part, don't you think?July 1, 2014 at 11:20AM EST
GuyLodgeIt would certainly be the smart pick, and it is indeed eligible. I guess it depends whether or not the selection committee holds Pawlikowski's expatriate status (he left Poland as a teenager and his career has never been based there) against him. It might not be a factor at all, but you can never overestimate the political pettiness of these decisions.July 1, 2014 at 7:30PM EST
KristopherTapleyI don't expect them to submit it, either. In the meantime, the "Leviathan" photo is just my "fuck you" placeholder until we dig into the category later in the year.July 1, 2014 at 10:04PM ESTLike (1)Latest Likes:Chris L.
EdwinThe 2 or 3 other early Oscar predictions I've looked at have "Into the Woods" getting a lot of nominations including Best Picture, and I'm glad that you're not predicting that much for it. Especially since the news broke about the changes being made to the story, I foresee its critical consensus ending up on the negative side of divisive, if not just overwhelmingly negative.
But then again, who really knows? It might be a $250 million box office hit and have a 90% on RottenTomatoes. I'm just saying I really doubt it, so I don't see it landing any nominations outside the tech categories and maybe a supporting nod for Emily Blunt (which is exactly what you're predicting for it).
One more thing: it looks like we'll actually have a competitive Animated Feature race this year, which is always good.
But one more thing: it's going to be interesting to see how some of the acting campaigns go as far as category placement. I've read that Weinstein might push Christoph Waltz as a supporting actor (again) for "Big Eyes," and I've also heard that Julianne Moore could potentially go supporting for "Maps to the Stars." Then there's "Foxcatcher," which by most accounts I've read seems to be a three-lead film, but I've heard various things about how they may campaign it (it will obviously depend on how they view the competition, I'm sure). Everyone seems to agree Ruffalo will go supporting (I guess his is the least leading of the three roles), but both Tatum and Carell seem up in the air. I've heard two-lead campaign from a lot of people, but I've also seen some reports that the studio might push Tatum as supporting, and I've even read somewhere that Carell might be the one to get the supporting push (which I assume would be done to get him an easy win, if they come to view the race that way).July 1, 2014 at 1:36PM ESTReply to Comment
Fast Eddie AlbertSo far, it's looking like the studio made the right call to delay Foxcatcher to this year.
That could be a future slideshow for you guys.
Films that benefitted or suffered by coming out a year early or a year later than they were supposed to.
Example: Crazy Heart getting released early and completely altering the Best Actor race.July 2, 2014 at 10:08PM ESTReply to CommentLike (1)Latest Likes:John G.
John G.Great Gatsby also comes to mind.July 2, 2014 at 10:20PM EST
John G.And from the history books: It's a Wonderful Life was moved up from January 1947 to qualify for the 1946 Oscars. This was a mistake, as it had to compete against The Best Years of Our Lives instead of the weaker 1947 field.July 2, 2014 at 10:25PM EST


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Wong Kei Ying
- 'Not some kind of secret meeting': Hong Kong Indigenous leaders meet with
- The photos, published by news website Bastille Post on Wednesday night, showed three members of the group – including Edward Leung Tin-kei and Ray Wong Toi-yeung – meeting two consulate staffers.
- Hong Kong's "orphans" find their battle cry in an independent film turned box
- Housewife Kwan Ying-yi unleashed a barrage of open frustration at the government during a Legislative Council meeting; within two days a subsequent YouTube clip received 300,000 views.
- Article to be sent: 5 things Hongkongers should watch for in China's 'Two
- One of the reasons why the state leaders' comments matter is because the Two Session convened days after localist candidate Edward Leung Tin-kei, 24, won more than 66,000 votes in the Legco by-election last Sunday, coming third. ...
- Democrats should retire and offer stage to younger ones
- Led by Edward Leung Tin-kei and his peers, as well as the vibrant groups like Youngspiration and Hong Kong Indigenous that they represent, the high-spirited new generation has breathed new life into Hong Kong's pursuit of democracy. They are ...
- Hong Kong Independence Goes From Fringe Cause to Contender
- Wong and his supporters are among a small, but growing number of voices calling for Hong Kong's independence, a position that could put the former British colony on a collision course with Beijing if it acquires broader support.
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Andy Kessler reckons that if the government buys up bad loans at 35 cents on the dollar and eventually receives 50 cents for them, it could make well over $1 trillion on this bailout. I'm not sure how that works: a 43% return on $700 billion is a profit of only $300 billion.
In any case, it seems clear that even under Kessler's optimistic scenarios, if the government buys bonds at about 60-65 cents on the dollar -- which is very much within the realm of possibility, listening to how Ben Bernanke described the bailout -- then the taxpayer is liable to be on the hook for a very large sum indeed.
All of which only goes to reinforce the central irony of the bailout negotiations. While the politicians argue about things like executive pay and insurance funds, there's only one thing which really matters: the price the government pays for bad assets.
Paulson and Bernanke are leaving that key number deliberately vague, while the House Republicans' plan seems to envisage ultimately paying a full 100 cents on the dollar, through a new insurance fund, with some unknown part of that payment coming from the banking industry itself. Either way, the cost of the plan is very much up in the air. But for reasons I don't pretend to understand, the real sticking point of the negotiations is the "how", and not the "how much". Weird.


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Sometimes during a sporting event, a rule will have to be applied that either seems unnecessarily weird or plain nonsensical.
Officials will usually have to break that rule out during a situation where they are stumped and are looking for some guidance. Chances are good that whatever is going on, it does not happen very often.
Some sports have rules you see enforced all the time that just seem silly. Seriously, what is up with that offside line in hockey?
Every sport has these quirky rules that do not come up on a game-by-game basis. But when they do, they usually end up affecting the outcome of games and have coaches, players, fans and even analysts crying foul.
Of course, there is nothing to moan about. It is, after all, just part of the game.


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Boy George Guilty of False Imprisonment
A jury convicted pop singer Boy George Friday of falsely imprisoning a male escort. Norwegian Audun Carlsen had alleged he was restrained with handcuffs by the musician at the singer's London apartment on April 28, 2007. Carlsen, 29, also accused the former Culture Club frontman of swinging a metal chain at him as he fled the singer's flat after a naked photo shoot." He will be sentenced Jan. 19th. [Blade]
3 Comments
My favorite bit was the 'George is too FAT to have been considered a serious threat' defense. That was hilarious!!!
Dec 5, 2008 at 6:29 pm · @Reply ·
Neither of you are taking this very seriously! This could mean the death of the Rave Scene, as George is such a popular DJ…
Dec 5, 2008 at 6:58 pm · @Reply ·


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La Storia della Arcana Famiglia [T]
View Single Post
December 15th, 2012 (8:48 PM).
Xlugon Pyro
Dragon Tamer
Join Date:
May 2007
Xoxaa Illiphia
The High Priestess
"Of course," replies the woman, agreeing to Xoxaa's suggestion.
The older woman's response and reaction is quick and decisive, seemingly not having even a second thought about what Xoxaa asked. Granted, it was a very logical course of action so it isn't surprising how the woman chose to act. Xoxaa wastes no time, following not too far behind the woman as she recovered intelligence from the guards before turning around to fill her younger ally in on the details of the thieves.
"Come, quickly. The guards have received word of a truck headed towards the airfield; we'll need a vehicle, in short."
"Alright, but where will we find a vehicle appropriate for our use, much less one we can take, or do you-," reciprocates Xoxaa, only for her question to be cut short as the woman found her answer.
"Ignored again,"
concludes Xoxaa, used to but still frustrated when others seem to either not hear what she said even when she's clearly audible, or, well, she never really figured out why she seems to be invisible, maybe even more invisible than the invisible man she heard of.
Perhaps the woman's response to things is more direct, Xoxaa following her older companion to the site of the woman's focus. She keeps her distance, watching as the woman pulls out a knife and begins to release the vehicle that Xoxaa inquired about. However, Xoxaa's certain the motorcycle isn't hers, and the woman certainly doesn't seem to be the kind of person to justify criminal activity, and yet she's deliberately confiscating someone's property. Xoxaa would never do something such as this, regardless of the situation. Naturally, she feels uncomfortable about what she can predict is about to happen. Her face naturally slumps, a slight frown on her face as she stares at the vehicle the woman released, revving the engine, sure to draw out the vehicle's owner if they're home. A sharp whistle then breaks the string of thoughts Xoxaa mulled over regarding the "borrowing", as she suspects how the woman would justify her actions.
"Get on," advises the older woman, slight urgency in her words as they need to go after the other criminals before they get away with the stolen property, now an ironic circumstance given what the woman had just done.
"Uhm..." hesitates Xoxaa, looking down slightly, approaching the motorbike a midst its loud, roaring engine so that the woman might hear her. "Are you sure we should be doing this? The bike's not ours."
Xoxaa contemplated what the woman's answer might be, but she needed to ask anyway, especially since it seems a bit odd that thieves would be trying to bring other thieves to justice. The woman probably intends to return the vehicle, but it still seems wrong to take something that's not theirs without asking, even if it's to apprehend thieving villains. Given the woman's likely response, Xoxaa prepares herself to hop on the vehicle anyway, delaying in action still as the moral ambiguity of the situation makes her too uneasy to act effortlessly.
My posts look too short, so I'm going to misguide the general public and artificially enhance the length of my posts with this garbage of a signature!
In a world without substance, a nonsense signature is only appropriate!
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Aho — Gejia
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Sunday, January 15, 2017 · 7pm
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Bellevue Women Cruise Past Everett 73-54
Date posted: January 30, 2016
Bellevue College women's basketball stayed on pace for the North Region title with a 73-54 win over visiting Everett tonight. The Bulldogs, entering the game in a three-way tie for first place, came out early and took control with an 18-13 first quarter lead and never looked back. Mikayla Jones had the biggest all-around night …more about Bellevue Women Cruise Past Everett 73-54


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