text: DSpace Community: http://hdl.handle.net/2381/2777 2016-10-26T02:21:17Z 2016-10-26T02:21:17Z "Rule Rationality" Heller, Yuval Winter, Eyal http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38250 2016-10-25T13:33:35Z 2016-10-25T13:32:39Z Title: "Rule Rationality" Authors: Heller, Yuval; Winter, Eyal Abstract: We study the strategic advantages of following rules of thumb that bundle different games together (called rule rationality) when this may be observed by one's opponent. We present a model in which the strategic environment determines which kind of rule rationality is adopted by the players. We apply the model to characterize the induced rules and outcomes in various interesting environments. Finally, we show the close relations between act rationality and "Stackelberg stability" (no player can earn from playing first). Description: Following the embargo period the above license applies. 2016-10-25T13:32:39Z Efficient allocations in economies with asymmetric information when the realized frequency of types is common knowledge Boukouras, Aristotelis Koufopoulos, Kostas http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38237 2016-10-25T02:24:37Z 2016-10-24T15:25:06Z Title: Efficient allocations in economies with asymmetric information when the realized frequency of types is common knowledge Authors: Boukouras, Aristotelis; Koufopoulos, Kostas Abstract: We consider a general economy, where agents have private information about their types. Types can be multidimensional and potentially interdependent. We show that, if the realized frequency of types (the exact number of agents for each type) is common knowledge, then a mechanism exists, which is consistent with truthful revelation of private information and which implements first-best allocations of resources as the unique equilibrium. The result requires the single-crossing property on utility functions and the anonymity of the Pareto correspondence. 2016-10-24T15:25:06Z Ethnic fractionalisation, governance and loan defaults in Africa Andrianova, Svetlana Baltagi, Badi H. Demetriades, Panicos Fielding, David http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38209 2016-10-13T02:23:59Z 2016-10-12T14:13:48Z Title: Ethnic fractionalisation, governance and loan defaults in Africa Authors: Andrianova, Svetlana; Baltagi, Badi H.; Demetriades, Panicos; Fielding, David Abstract: We present a theoretical model of an imperfectly competitive loans market that is suitable for emerging economies in Africa. The model allows for variation in both the level of contract enforcement (the quality of governance) and the degree of market segmentation (the level of ethnic fractionalization). The model predicts a specific form of non-linearity in the effects of these variables on loan default. Empirical analysis using African panel data for 110 individual banks in 28 countries over 2000-2008 provides strong evidence for these predictions. Our results have important implications for the conditions under which policy reform will enhance financial development. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24 month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-10-12T14:13:48Z The changing face of financial development Demetriades, Panicos O. Rousseau, Peter L. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38208 2016-10-13T02:23:58Z 2016-10-12T14:05:35Z Title: The changing face of financial development Authors: Demetriades, Panicos O.; Rousseau, Peter L. Abstract: We provide evidence from a large number of countries which demonstrates the changing nature of the finance–growth nexus. Specifically, we show that financial depth is no longer a significant determinant of long-run growth. Instead we find evidence to suggest that certain financial reforms have sizeable growth effects, which can be positive or negative depending on how well banks are regulated and supervised. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24 month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-10-12T14:05:35Z Violence and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin Manacorda, Marco http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38178 2016-10-10T11:47:33Z 2016-10-10T11:47:09Z Title: Violence and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin; Manacorda, Marco Abstract: This paper uses microdata from Brazilian vital statistics on births and deaths between 2000 and 2010 to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to local violence – measured by homicide rates – on birth outcomes. The estimates show that exposure to violence during the first trimester of pregnancy leads to a small but precisely estimated increase in the risk of low birthweight and prematurity. Effects are found both in small municipalities, where homicides are rare, and in large municipalities, where violence is endemic, and are particularly pronounced among children of poorly educated mothers, implying that violence compounds the disadvantage that these children already suffer as a result of their households' lower socioeconomic status. Description: Following the embargo period the above license applies. 2016-10-10T11:47:09Z Relative Age, Class Assignment and Academic Performance: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38176 2016-10-10T11:37:49Z 2016-10-10T11:36:34Z Title: Relative Age, Class Assignment and Academic Performance: Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, Martin Abstract: Students in Brazil are typically assigned to classes based on the age ranking in their cohort. I exploit this rule to estimate the effects on maths achievement of being in class with older peers for students in fifth grade. I find that being assigned to the older class leads to a drop in Math scores of about 0.4 of a standard deviation for students at the cut-off. I provide evidence that heterogeneity in age is an important factor behind this effect. Information on teaching practices and student behaviour sheds light on how class heterogeneity harms learning. 2016-10-10T11:36:34Z Developing countries' foreign direct investment and portfolio investment Khayat, Sahar http://hdl.handle.net/2381/38031 2016-09-10T04:02:17Z 2016-09-09T10:54:27Z Title: Developing countries' foreign direct investment and portfolio investment Authors: Khayat, Sahar Abstract: This thesis is a collection of three empirical essays on foreign direct investment and cross-border portfolio investment. The objective of the first essay entitled: "Oil and the Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in MENA Countries" is to investigate the effect of oil as a proxy for natural resources and the main location determinants of foreign direct investment. Moreover, this paper examines whether oil as a proxy for natural resources in the host countries alters the relationship between natural resources and institutional quality. The result of the interaction, which is the key interest in this chapter, is robust and undermines the effects of investment profiles on IFDI. Paying particular attention to the degree of outward FDI concentration in developing countries and transition economies, the second essay is titled "Extending Dunning's Investment Development Path (IDP): Home Country Determinants of Outward Foreign Direct Investment from Developing Countries." The aim of the empirical estimates provided in this paper is to investigate the home countries' determinants of outward FDI from developing countries. Results from the paper support the OLI paradigm, the IDP theory. In the third essay, "Cross-Border Portfolio Investment from the Developing Economies and the Top Major Partners, using the Gravity Model", I have applied a new approach to a new panel data set of bilateral gross cross-border investment flows between 37 developing countries and 79 host countries. The remarkably strong results have positive implications for the theory of asset trade. The main result suggests that the positive and significant coefficient of GDP per capita in a destination country can explain a significant part of the Lucas paradox, and supports the reason for developing capital being invested outside the region. Interestingly, geographical proximity is found to exert a significant positive influence on assets in order that investors may seek to diversify their portfolios. 2016-09-09T10:54:27Z Strategic Dimensions of Macroeconomic Policy in OECD countries Mata Flores, Edgar http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37973 2016-08-17T02:26:19Z 2016-08-16T11:05:42Z Title: Strategic Dimensions of Macroeconomic Policy in OECD countries Authors: Mata Flores, Edgar Abstract: This research is focused on the study of international aspects of interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies. Its main objective is to reveal specific measurements and features of the impacts of cross-country and cross-policy spillovers among heterogeneous economies interrelated within networks of commercial and financial exchange. In the achievement of this purpose, our study also contributes to the enhancement of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by the inclusion of a wider scope of analysis able to address the consequences of regional and global disturbances in the context of a multi-country setting. Other important additions in our international modelling framework, as the incorporation of financial intermediation, also play an important role in the enhancement of its potential as a wide and versatile platform for policy evaluation. With a similar international approach, we also adapt complementary methodologies, as those in the spatial econometrics literature, to scrutinise the effects of national and international cross-policy externalities as the nominal effects of fiscal policies, in particular. By the means of a range of empirical exercises performed with the aid of our resulting body of specialised econometric tools, this study provides valuable insights on policy interactions within and between economies and regions as diverse as those in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2016-08-16T11:05:42Z Three Essays in Game Theory Kozlovskaya, Maria http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37957 2016-08-16T02:31:21Z 2016-08-15T12:47:18Z Title: Three Essays in Game Theory Authors: Kozlovskaya, Maria Abstract: This thesis applies game theoretic methods to problems of individual choice and business strategy. It consists of three self-contained chapters. Chapters 2 and 3 explore strategic interaction between agents who are concerned about the social consequences of their actions, while Chapter 4 considers information use by firms who can spy on their competitors. By investigating these diverse topics, the thesis shows how Game Theory can be used to explain and predict outcomes in a variety of real-life scenarios of economic interest. Chapter 2 explores the effect of "other-regarding" preferences on the outcomes of repeated social interactions, modelled as a Prisoner's Dilemma game. The models of inequality aversion and guilt aversion are identified as compatible with the existing laboratory evidence on the game, and a novel experiment is run to test them against each other. The experiment provided support for the inequality aversion model, which shows that fairness is an important consideration in repeated social interaction. Chapter 3 develops a formal theory of moral choice by proving a representation theorem for guilt-averse preferences. In the chapter, an axiomatic approach is used to deduce a utility function which explains how people trade off material and moral incentives. A novel logarithmic utility is proposed, which is grounded in realistic psychological assumptions and accounts well for the existing body of laboratory evidence. Chapter 4 investigates the welfare consequences of industrial espionage by modelling it as an information acquisition game played by duopolists. In the model, firms can acquire information about unobservable demand either by conducting market research, or by spying on their competitors. The chapter shows how the two information sources affect price and quantity decisions taken by firms. It also shows that aggregate profit and social welfare grow with the precision of the intelligence technology in most environments. 2016-08-15T12:47:18Z Behavioural Biases and Contract Theory Foschi, Matteo http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37956 2016-08-16T02:34:27Z 2016-08-15T12:41:15Z Title: Behavioural Biases and Contract Theory Authors: Foschi, Matteo Abstract: This thesis studies how concepts of behavioural biases and bounded rationality affect classical results in contract theory and industrial organization. Chapter 2 studies the concept of naïveté (Strotz, 1956) in a principal agent model. Agents are assumed to be unaware of their true type, and formbiased (naïve) beliefs about it. The latter depend on the actual type of the agent. Results show how the information about agents' true nature, that can be elicited from their beliefs, plays a crucial role in the principal's optimal contracting strategy. In particular, the principal faces a trade-off between exploiting the agent with the most naïve beliefs and designing efficient contracts for the most widespread type of agent, according to her posteriors. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 analyse models where agents suffer from temptation and self-control problems (à la Gul and Pesendorfer, 2001). Chapter 3 presents a new justification for loyalty schemes in the retailing industry. In the literature, loyalty schemes have been mostly studied as competition devices (Caminal and Claici, 2007) or as ways to increase consumers' lifetime value (Caminal, 2012). This work focuses on how a seller can use loyalty schemes to acquire information about consumers' preferences and gain the ability to perform individual pricing. Finally, Chapter 4 presents a two-period mechanism design problem with no commitment. It shows how the presence of consumers that suffer from self-control problems can explain the existence of entry bonuses paid by the seller to the consumer, regardless of whether the latter makes the purchase or not. 2016-08-15T12:41:15Z Essays on Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Data Evidence from Korea Lim, Hosung http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37955 2016-08-16T02:33:25Z 2016-08-15T12:34:57Z Title: Essays on Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Data Evidence from Korea Authors: Lim, Hosung Abstract: The thesis consists of four distinct essays examining different aspects of monetary transmission using firm and bank level data for Korea. The first essay examines the determinants of firms' capital structure using comprehensive Korean firm-level panel data. The empirical results show that small, less collateralised, riskier firms are more dependent on short-term bank finance. Particularly after the currency crisis period, banks have more concerns about firms' profitability and the level of debt in their lending practices, and firms with higher profits or lower leverage have easier access to short-term bank borrowing. When examining the impact of tight monetary policy on firms' external finance, firm size, profitability, and indebtedness have significant role in bank lending channel during the post-crisis period. The second essay examines firms' foreign currency exposure and real exchange rate balance sheet effects on firms' investments using Korean firm-Ievel data. The findings in this paper have helped uncover the elusive real exchange rate balance sheet effect in limited open economy literature. The third essay examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact of the foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including U.S. bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the global financial crisis of2008-2009. Finally, the fourth essay empirically analyses availability of credit for small and medium firms (SMEs) based on bank-firm level data, with a particular focus on the credit policy of the central bank of Korea. Its findings can serve as a useful reference for implementing credit policy, which is being increasingly adopted by central banks since the global financial crisis. 2016-08-15T12:34:57Z Three Essays in Green Technology and Environmental Policy Stathopoulou, Eleni http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37773 2016-06-17T02:17:52Z 2016-06-16T09:34:37Z Title: Three Essays in Green Technology and Environmental Policy Authors: Stathopoulou, Eleni Abstract: This thesis comprises three essays on environmental economics and deals with issues such as corruption, emissions leakage and green alliances. Chapter 1 investigates the relationship between corruption and market entry. We show that corruption incentivises firms' entry in the market while an increased number of firms incentivises bureaucrats to be corrupt, in a self-reinforcing manner. Although the applicability of the model can be more general, we focus on the case of environmental regulation and show the positive relationship between corruption and pollution though market entry. In the second chapter, an additional factor which leads to emissions leakage is proposed. In a setting with two countries, when consumers in one country care only about domestic emissions, emissions leakage arises since demand for the good that is produced in that country using a greener technology is shifted abroad where production takes place with the dirtiest technology. Next, I consider the global environmental consciousness scenario i.e., consumers in that country now care about both the domestic and foreign emissions. In this case, foreign pollution is mitigated and leakage is diminished. In the last chapter, I examine green alliances, the partnerships between a firm and an environmental group. In this model, the environmentalists have two options: to either act against the firm which implies shrinking the demand that the firm faces or join forces with it by reducing the cost of implementing a greener technology. The group's decision is affected by an environmental tax set by the government and by extension it impacts firm's choices on output and emission intensity. It is shown that higher taxation makes the conflict scenario more likely to happen, implying that collaboration and a more stringent environmental policy are substitutes. This identifies a previously unexplored, possibly adverse effect of public policy on environmental quality. 2016-06-16T09:34:37Z Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice, and Growth Cycles Varvarigos, Dimitrios Gil-Molto, Maria José http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37756 2016-06-15T02:16:19Z 2016-06-14T14:04:50Z Title: Endogenous Market Structure, Occupational Choice, and Growth Cycles Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios; Gil-Molto, Maria José Abstract: We model an industry that supplies intermediate goods in a growing economy. Agents can choose whether to provide labor or to become firm owners and compete in the industry. The idea that entry is determined through occupational choice has major implications for the economy's dynamics. Particularly, the results show that economic dynamics are governed by endogenous volatility in the determination of both the number of industry entrants and in the growth rate of output. Consequently, we argue that occupational choice and the structural characteristics of the endogenous market structure can act as both the impulse source and the propagation mechanism of economic fluctuations. 2016-06-14T14:04:50Z Corruption, fertility, and human capital Varvarigos, Dimitrios Arsenis, Panagiotis http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37755 2016-06-15T02:16:34Z 2016-06-14T13:58:11Z Title: Corruption, fertility, and human capital Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios; Arsenis, Panagiotis Abstract: We build an overlapping generations model in which reproductive households face a child quantity–child quality trade-off and bureaucrats are delegated with the task of delivering public services that support the accumulation of human capital. By integrating the theoretical analyses of endogenous growth, corruption and fertility choices, we show that the negative relation between fertility and economic development may also be affected by differences in the magnitude of bureaucratic corruption. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T13:58:11Z A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion Jensen, Martin Kaae Kozlovskaya, Maria http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37750 2016-06-14T12:11:38Z 2016-06-14T12:11:08Z Title: A Representation Theorem for Guilt Aversion Authors: Jensen, Martin Kaae; Kozlovskaya, Maria Abstract: Guilt aversion has been shown to play an important role in economic decision-making. In this paper, we take an axiomatic approach to guilt by deducing a utility representation from a list of easily interpretable assumptions on an agent's preferences. It turns out that our logarithmic representation can mitigate the problem of multiplicity of equilibria to which psychological games are prone. We apply the model in three well-known games and show that its predictions are consistent with experimental observations. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T12:11:08Z Aggregative Games Jensen, Martin K. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37748 2016-06-14T11:57:20Z 2016-06-14T11:55:38Z Title: Aggregative Games Authors: Jensen, Martin K. Editors: Marini, M.; Corchon, L. Description: The file associated with this record is under embargo while permission to archive is sought from the publisher. The full text may be available through the publisher links above. 2016-06-14T11:55:38Z Afriat's Theorem and Samuelson's 'Eternal Darkness' Polisson, Matthew Renou, Ludovic http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37746 2016-06-15T02:16:04Z 2016-06-14T11:40:05Z Title: Afriat's Theorem and Samuelson's 'Eternal Darkness' Authors: Polisson, Matthew; Renou, Ludovic Abstract: Suppose that we have access to a finite set of expenditure data drawn from an individual consumer, i.e., how much of each good has been purchased and at what prices. Afriat (1967) was the first to establish necessary and sufficient conditions on such a data set for rationalizability by utility maximization. In this note, we provide a new and simple proof of Afriat's Theorem, the explicit steps of which help to more deeply understand the driving force behind one of the more curious features of the result itself, namely that a concave rationalization is without loss of generality in a classical finite data setting. Our proof stresses the importance of the non-uniqueness of a utility representation along with the finiteness of the data set in ensuring the existence of a concave utility function that rationalizes the data. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T11:40:05Z Speculative Profits, Innovation and Growth Zanchettin, Piercarlo Denicolo, Vincenzo http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37743 2016-06-15T02:15:33Z 2016-06-14T10:39:08Z Title: Speculative Profits, Innovation and Growth Authors: Zanchettin, Piercarlo; Denicolo, Vincenzo Abstract: When technological change affects the prices of tradeable assets, innovators can obtain speculative profits by exploiting their inside information as to the occurrence of innovations. We propose a tractable model of endogenous growth that formalizes this argument, originally due to Hirshleifer (1971). We then use the model to assess two claims advanced by Hirshleifer, namely, that speculative profits can generate excessive investment in R&D when they add to monopoly rents guaranteed by patent protection, or else even in a perfectly competitive economy. The analysis confirms the first claim, but casts doubts on the second one. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-14T10:39:08Z The Educational Consequences of Language Proficiency for Young Children Ohinata, Asako van Ours, Jan C. Yao, Yuxin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37727 2016-06-09T02:14:41Z 2016-06-08T14:47:54Z Title: The Educational Consequences of Language Proficiency for Young Children Authors: Ohinata, Asako; van Ours, Jan C.; Yao, Yuxin Abstract: Our paper studies the educational consequences of language proficiency by investigating the relationship between dialect-speaking and academic performance of 5-6 year old children in the Netherlands. We find that dialect-speaking has a modestly negative effect on boys' language test scores. In addition, we study whether there are spillover effects of peers' dialect-speaking on test scores. We find no evidence for spillover effect of peers' dialect-speaking. The test scores of neither Dutch-speaking children nor dialect-speaking children are a affected by the share of dialect-speaking peers in the classroom. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-08T14:47:54Z Information Use and Acquisition in Price-Setting Oligopolies Wallace, Chris Myatt, David P. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37724 2016-06-09T02:14:47Z 2016-06-08T14:01:51Z Title: Information Use and Acquisition in Price-Setting Oligopolies Authors: Wallace, Chris; Myatt, David P. Abstract: Asymmetric price-setting multi-product suppliers have access to multiple sources of information about demand conditions, where the publicity of each source corresponds to the cross-industry correlation of signals received from it. A signal's influence on suppliers' prices is increasing in its publicity as well as in its precision. The emphasis on relatively public information is stronger for smaller suppliers who control narrower product portfolios. When information is endogenously acquired, suppliers listen to only a subset of information sources. This subset is smaller when products are less differentiated and when the industry is less concentrated. Smaller suppliers focus attention on fewer information sources. The inefficiencies arising from information acquisition and use are identified. The associated externalities depend upon the extent of product differentiation, the concentration of the industry, and the degree of decreasing returns to scale. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-06-08T14:01:51Z Essays in Motivation Smithers, Samuel Francis Terry http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37707 2016-06-09T02:18:07Z 2016-06-08T10:09:20Z Title: Essays in Motivation Authors: Smithers, Samuel Francis Terry Abstract: This thesis consists of three self-contained papers developing the idea of goal setting, an intrinsic motivator, as an alternative motivator to monetary incentives. A non-binding goal is a specific, challenging target with which there are no monetary rewards or punishments associated with success or failure. Chapter 2 focuses on studying the basis of goal setting, developing an experiment to test the effectiveness that assigning non-binding goals have on effort on a real effort task. It shows that setting a goal has a significant impact upon effort and that it is the result of both an increase in speed and accuracy. Chapter 3 develops the first chapter further into a dynamic setting, focusing on comparing whether personalised goals are more effective than uniform goals. I find that personalised goals lead to a significantly higher number of attempts than a uniform goal level, however these extra attempts are not converted into statistically higher number of correct answers over the uniform goals group. Thus, if production is costly, a uniform goal level is more appropriate as a personalised goal would lead to higher average production costs. Chapter 4 examines the effect of setting both assigned and personal (self-set) non-binding goals on a real effort task. Developing a simple model with goal-dependent preferences, we derive a set of conjectures for our experiment. In line with previous studies, we find that goal setting leads to a higher average level of effort. However, we also find that previously assigned goals affect agents' goal commitment, affecting future performance. We also observe that those with only personal goals perform worse on average than a control group with no goals. This suggests that there may be a form of crowding-out of effort on the task when under personal goals versus no goals at all. 2016-06-08T10:09:20Z Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models Swamy, P. A. V. B. Chang, I-Lok Mehta, Jatinder S. Greene, William H. Hall, Stephen G. Tavlas, George S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37694 2016-06-08T02:15:59Z 2016-06-07T12:20:01Z Title: Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models Authors: Swamy, P. A. V. B.; Chang, I-Lok; Mehta, Jatinder S.; Greene, William H.; Hall, Stephen G.; Tavlas, George S. Abstract: We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors. 2016-06-07T12:20:01Z How do Financial Intermediaries Create Value in Security Issues? Adriani, Fabrizio Deidda, Luca G. Sonderegger, Silvia http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37681 2016-06-02T02:16:32Z 2016-06-01T13:30:58Z Title: How do Financial Intermediaries Create Value in Security Issues? Authors: Adriani, Fabrizio; Deidda, Luca G.; Sonderegger, Silvia Abstract: We study incentive provision in a model of securities issuance with an informed issuer and uninformed investors. We show that the presence of an informed intermediary may increase surplus even if we allow for collusion between the intermediary and the issuer. Collusion is neutralized by introducing a misalignment between the interests of the issuer and those of the intermediary. To achieve this, the intermediary commits to hold some of the securities. The intermediary then underprices the remaining securities and extracts any investor surplus through a "participation fee." We provide an explanation for the diffusion of book building and quid pro quo practices in Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). 2016-06-01T13:30:58Z An Ordinal Game Theory Approach to the Analysis and Selection of Partners in Public–Private Partnership Projects Ouenniche, Jamal Boukouras, Aristotelis Rajabi, Mohammad http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37566 2016-05-17T02:08:49Z 2016-05-16T11:57:59Z Title: An Ordinal Game Theory Approach to the Analysis and Selection of Partners in Public–Private Partnership Projects Authors: Ouenniche, Jamal; Boukouras, Aristotelis; Rajabi, Mohammad Abstract: Nowadays, public–private partnership projects have become a standard for delivering public services in both developed and developing countries. In this paper, we are concerned with the analysis of private sector proposals and the selection of the private sector partner to whom to award the contract. To the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been addressed within a game theory framework. To fill this gap, we model this decision problem as a static non-cooperative game of complete information and propose a new ordinal game theory algorithm for finding an optimal generalized Nash equilibrium. The proposed algorithm determines a single ranking of proposals or bidders that takes account of multiple performance criteria and reflects both the public sector and the private sector perspectives, and can handle any number of private sector players and any number of contractual terms. An illustrative scenario is provided to guide the reader through the workings of the proposed ordinal game theory algorithm. The proposed ordinal game theory-based analysis framework can be used by the private sector to analyse any set of potential proposals most likely to be submitted by bidders and to assist with the choice of bidding strategies, and by the public sector player to analyse any set of potential proposals most likely to be submitted under any set of contractual terms and to assist with the choice of a realistic set of contractual terms and their performance measures. 2016-05-16T11:57:59Z Voting as a signaling device Aytimur, R. Emre Boukouras, Aristotelis Schwager, Robert http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37565 2016-05-17T02:08:01Z 2016-05-16T11:45:02Z Title: Voting as a signaling device Authors: Aytimur, R. Emre; Boukouras, Aristotelis; Schwager, Robert Abstract: In this paper, citizens vote in order to influence the election outcome and in order to signal their unobserved characteristics to others. The model is one of rational voting and generates the following predictions: (i) The paradox of not voting does not arise, because the benefit of voting does not vanish with population size. (ii) Turnout in elections is positively related to the importance of social interactions. (iii) Voting may exhibit bandwagon effects and small changes in the electoral incentives may generate large changes in turnout due to signaling effects. (iv) Signaling incentives increase the sensitivity of turnout to voting incentives in communities with low opportunity cost of social interaction, while the opposite is true for communities with high cost of social interaction. Therefore, the model predicts less volatile turnout for the latter type of communities. 2016-05-16T11:45:02Z Cultural norms, the persistence of tax evasion, and economic growth Varvarigos, Dimitrios http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37537 2016-05-14T02:43:54Z 2016-05-13T11:28:55Z Title: Cultural norms, the persistence of tax evasion, and economic growth Authors: Varvarigos, Dimitrios Abstract: I study the effects of tax evasion on economic growth by focusing on the cultural aspects of tax compliance and their effect on the extensive margin of tax evasion. A cultural norm that determines the contemptibility of tax dodging practices links the past incidence of tax evasion with the tax payers' current incentives to conceal sources of income. This dynamic complementarity may lead to multiple equilibria in the evolution of tax evasion. Due to the latter's effect on capital accumulation, this multiplicity may lead economies in divergent development paths, as long as they differ in the initial magnitude of tax evasion. This happens even though economies may be, on the outset, identical in terms of capital stock and structural characteristics, including those that govern tax enforcement. Description: The file associated with this record is under an 12-month embargo from the date of publication, in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-05-13T11:28:55Z Essays in Game Theory Rigos, Alexandros http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37520 2016-05-13T02:14:32Z 2016-05-12T11:18:16Z Title: Essays in Game Theory Authors: Rigos, Alexandros Abstract: This thesis explores interactions among agents whose rationality is bounded in distinct ways. It consists of three self-contained chapters/papers. Chapters 2 and 3 consider myopic and hard-wired strategy revisions based on evolutionary game dynamics, while Chapter 4 deals with rationally inattentive agents who acquire costly information in a flexible manner. The thesis, thus, spans two extremes of the range of models with boundedly rational agents. The first paper proposes a novel way to formalize matching mechanisms in evolutionary games. The proposed formalization nests group selection models such as the haystack (Maynard Smith, 1964) and trait-group models (Wilson, 1975). It is shown that evolutionary optima can be obtained as Nash equilibria under appropriately defined matching rules. In the second paper matching rules are endogenized and the co-evolution of cooperation and matching is studied in social dilemma situations. It turns out that only full-or-null assortativity levels are evolutionarily stable. The extent to which efficient outcomes are achieved by this endogenization process is evaluated, which crucially depends on the structure of the particular interaction considered. The third paper extends recent models of flexible information acquisition to an uncountable-action-space setting: a beauty contest coordination game. Necessary conditions for the existence of equilibria with well-behaved strategies are derived. It is established that affine equilibria exist only if the fundamental is normally distributed. A higher coordination motive, a more concentrated prior distribution of the fundamental and higher information costs lead to less attention being paid to the fundamental. Moreover, flexible information acquisition technology is shown to result in equilibrium multiplicity under certain parameter combinations. 2016-05-12T11:18:16Z Empirical analysis of technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reaction to news in futures market Liu, Guanqing http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37509 2016-05-12T02:14:46Z 2016-05-11T13:04:33Z Title: Empirical analysis of technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reaction to news in futures market Authors: Liu, Guanqing Abstract: This thesis comprises three chapters. It focuses on a unique dataset of the full trans- action records of traders in the Chinese futures market. Empirical techniques are used to analyse technical trading behaviour, margin trading, and market reactions to news in this market. Chapter 1, "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Futures Market", creates a new computational method to capture technical trading behaviour and finds technical trader's strategies can be classified in to 11 groups in Chinese rebar futures market. We use a simple model with macroeconomic news to filter pure technical traders from the unique data. Based on the estimation of 81000 technical trading rules, we find the potential technical strategies of each trader and we use K-means clustering algorithm to classify them. The coordinates of each cluster summarize the technical trading characteristics of members in each group. High percentage of traders in each group would apply the similar and corres- ponding strategies; Chapter 2, "Margin Trading: Hedonic Returns and Real Losses", focus on margin trading in the Chinese rebar futures market. We find market parti- cipants have a positive chance of a large gain and a large chance of a small limited loss under the mechanism. This kind of hedonic returns looks like that of people who play in a casino or buy lottery tickets. According to the unique dataset, we show that both expected and observed losses are substantial and that the optimal portfolio never contains rebar futures. Based on the analysis of traders' behaviour, we indicate that it is hard to rationalise their trading without a hedonic motive. Their trading behaviour can be easily understood as form of entertainment, such as gambling; Chapter 3, "The Influence of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Futures Market: Evidence from Commodity Futures in China", is a com- prehensive empirical analysis of the overall Chinese futures market, which covers 23 commodities futures to observe the relationship between futures and scheduled macroeconomic news. We find the scheduled news affect commodity futures around 20 days before the announcements date and the following adjustment needs several days around the announcement date to be absorbed. Different kinds of commodities futures have different sensitivity levels to the scheduled news and this sensitivity does not depend on the trading activity. We also indicate the influence of scheduled news can happen in any stages of a business cycle. We finally use 36070 traders in the unique data to prove that market participants cannot make excess returns by following macroeconomics news in Chinese futures market. 2016-05-11T13:04:33Z Essays on optimal inflation targeting forecast based rules and inflation modelling under uncertainty Abdelsalam, Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37424 2016-04-22T02:05:36Z 2016-04-21T10:20:43Z Title: Essays on optimal inflation targeting forecast based rules and inflation modelling under uncertainty Authors: Abdelsalam, Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abstract: This thesis focuses on exploring the most efficient forecast based rules for Inflation Targeting (IT) regime; modelling and forecasting inflation. Therefore, it is divided into four empirical chapters after the introduction as the first chapter follows the second chapter explores the most efficient alternative forecast based rules in the context of an estimated Global Projection Model for the Egyptian Central Bank's IT period. In addition to the traditional Inflation Forecast Based (IFB) rule, the chapter augments this rule with other variables like the expected exchange rate or output gap or both. Also, it proposes a structural Backward-Forward rule (BF) which implies more dynamics for the monetary policy rule and it encompasses other common rules. The third chapter discusses modelling and forecasting inflation from Phillips Curve (PC) under misspecification. It considers various econometric specifications, estimation methods, and different measures of business cycles. Then, we propose a Time Varying Coefficient Phillips Curve (TVCPC) which is more sophisticated and informative and, also, it acts as a tool to make the gap between the actual specification and the estimated one as small as possible. The fourth chapter considers: modelling the density of quarterly inflation by using a time-varying higher order moment's model developed by Leon, Rubio, and Serna (2005); and isolating the time-varying conditional correlations between inflation and both the growth in domestic credit and the real exchange rate by using two multivariate GARCH models. The fifth chapter focuses on improving inflation forecasts through combining some linear and non-linear models by using both traditional and other proposed sophisticated time varying combination approaches. We find that the BF rule is the superior welfare policy under all policy scenarios. With regard to the IFB rule, we conclude that: the augmented versions with the expected exchange rate are preferable to the IFB rule; the Time Varying Coefficient Phillips Curve with HP output gap (TVCPC_HP) produces the best forecasting accuracy; and models with time-invariant volatility, skewness and kurtosis are inferior to the models with time-varying higher order moments. Moreover, in comparison to static models, dynamic multivariate models can provide rich information related to inflation dynamics and forecasts. Further, the proposed time varying combination approaches dominate all individual models and all other static combination schemes. 2016-04-21T10:20:43Z Probability weighting functions Dhami, S. al-Nowaihi, Ali http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37298 2016-04-15T02:09:10Z 2016-04-14T09:54:57Z Title: Probability weighting functions Authors: Dhami, S.; al-Nowaihi, Ali Editors: Cochran, J. J. Abstract: Expected utility (EU) theory is unable to accommodate the observed nonlinear weighting of probabilities. We outline three stylized facts on nonlinear weighting that a theory of risk must ideally address. These are that people overweight small probabilities and underweight large ones (S1), do not choose stochastically dominated options when such dominance is obvious (S2), and ignore very small probabilities and code extremely large probabilities as one (S3). We then show that the concept of a probability weighting function (PWF) is crucial in addressing S1–S3. A PWF is not, however, in itself, a theory of risk. PWFs need to be embedded within some theory of risk in order to have significant predictive content. The two main alternative theories that are relevant in this regard are rank-dependent utility (RDU) and cumulative prospect (CP) theory. RDU and CP explain S1, S2 but not S3. We outline the recent proposal of al-Nowaihi and Dhami for composite prospect (CPP) theory that uses the composite Prelec probability weighting function (CPF). CPF is axiomatically founded, is flexible, and, is parsimonious. CPP can explain all three stylized facts S1, S2, and S3. 2016-04-14T09:54:57Z Essays on Exchange Rates Behaviour Haghpanahan, Houra http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37226 2016-04-12T02:27:54Z 2016-04-11T09:12:50Z Title: Essays on Exchange Rates Behaviour Authors: Haghpanahan, Houra Abstract: This thesis aims to investigate the exchange rate behaviour and its abnormal movements. By doing so, I introduce a novel instrument which contributes to analyse the exchange rate behaviour. I then apply the new instrument, called wavelet analysis, to investigate the relation of exchange rate to price ratio (PPP proposition) and the relation of exchange rate and interest rates (UIRP proposition). Finally, I concentrate on the specific movements in exchange rate that leads to currency crises. The second chapter introduces wavelet analysis which has been extensively applied to many situations with favourable results. Many researchers are expanding wavelet application in a variety of fields such as signal processing, physics and astronomy. It has remarkable potential properties that can be applied in the disciplines of economics and financial. The first attempt of this chapter is to introduce wavelet analysis in an intuitive manner. The next step involves reviewing the potential and possible contributions of wavelet analysis in empirical economic and finance literature. I also examine the validity of short-run and long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis applying wavelet analysis. The results indicate that the impact of price ratio on exchange rates are positive and close to unity. The findings confirm that the PPP holds for long-run horizon. The third chapter deals with examining the relationship between spot exchange rates and the interest rate differentials (UIRP) for ten bilateral currencies against the Pound Sterling in short and long time horizons, simultaneously. The distinguishing feature of this study is to apply wavelet transform to decompose the time series into short-run and long-run time horizons. I find out both negative and positive relationships between exchange rates and interest rate differentials. The former is supported by the fixed-price model in short-run and the latter is supported by flexible-price model in long-run. In the forth chapter, I evaluate the potential leading indicators of a currency crash by applying a quarterly panel of 26 developing and developed countries. I split the definition of currency crashes according to different generations of the currency crises in the literature. Based on two different definitions, I use two binomial logit models, which provide estimations of the probability of a currency crash occurring. The empirical results reveal that domestic credit growth rate, ratio of reserves to GDP, current account, output growth rate, and ratio of national debt to GDP are consistently associated with the early warning theory. According to definitions provided by this chapter, the findings show that current account and GDP growth rate in the developing countries and current account and national debt in the developed countries are significantly related to the crash incident. This chapter also criticizes the previous papers for their construction of exchange rate overvaluation indicator and proposes a recursive Kalman filter to express overvaluation. The findings confirm that overvaluation of exchange rate is not an appropriate predictor of currency crashes unlike previous studies. 2016-04-11T09:12:50Z Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting: an analysis of china's inflation Wu, Yinkai http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37175 2016-04-07T02:26:45Z 2016-04-06T15:37:32Z Title: Non-normality, uncertainty and inflation forecasting: an analysis of china's inflation Authors: Wu, Yinkai Abstract: Economic forecasting is important because it can affect the decision making processes of individuals, firms and governments so as to affect their behaviours. In this thesis, I discuss different methodologies for forecasting and forecast evaluation. I also discuss the role of assumption of normality and the role of uncertainty in economic forecasting. The first chapter is the introduction of the thesis. In second chapter, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performances of forecast combination and the forecast encompassing test under the forecast errors non-normality. In third chapter, I examines the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and macroeconomic uncertainty for China by using different measures of uncertainties. I also investigate the relationship between inflation forecast uncertainties and inflation itself. In fourth chapter, I compute the probabilities of deflation for China by applying density forecast based on the theories and methodologies from previous two chapters. Particularly, I construct density forecasts for different forecast horizons by a joint distribution using Student-t copula. The fifth chapter is conclusion. 2016-04-06T15:37:32Z A simple model of homophily in social networks Currarini, Sergio Matheson, Jesse Vega Redondo, F. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37110 2016-04-02T04:42:07Z 2016-04-01T12:59:45Z Title: A simple model of homophily in social networks Authors: Currarini, Sergio; Matheson, Jesse; Vega Redondo, F. Abstract: Biases in meeting opportunities have been recently shown to play a key role for the emergence of homophily in social networks (see Currarini, Jackson and Pin 2009). The aim of this paper is to provide a simple microfoundation of these biases in a model where the size and typecomposition of the meeting pools are shaped by agents' socialization decisions. In particular, agents either inbreed (direct search only to similar types) or outbreed (direct search to population at large). When outbreeding is costly, this is shown to induce stark equilibrium behavior of a threshold type: agents "inbreed" (i.e. mostly meet their own type) if, and only if, their group is above certain size. We show that this threshold equilibrium generates patterns of in-group and cross-group ties that are consistent with empirical evidence of homophily in two paradigmatic instances: high school friendships and interethnic marriages. Description: JEL Classification: D7, D71, D85, Z13. 2016-04-01T12:59:45Z A Method for Measuring Treatment Effects on the Treated without Randomization Hall, Stephen swamy, P. tavlas, G. S. Gibson, H. Chang, I. L. Mehta, J. Greene, W. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/37057 2016-03-16T03:33:38Z 2016-03-15T14:18:21Z Title: A Method for Measuring Treatment Effects on the Treated without Randomization Authors: Hall, Stephen; swamy, P.; tavlas, G. S.; Gibson, H.; Chang, I. L.; Mehta, J.; Greene, W. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-03-15T14:18:21Z Quantile peer effects of immigrant children at primary schools Ohinata, Asako van Ours, J. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36918 2016-03-01T03:29:05Z 2016-02-29T12:20:53Z Title: Quantile peer effects of immigrant children at primary schools Authors: Ohinata, Asako; van Ours, J. Abstract: x Description: The file associated with this record is under a 24-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-02-29T12:20:53Z Finance is good for the poor but it depends where you live Rewilak, Johan http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36899 2016-02-26T03:28:15Z 2016-02-25T15:29:31Z Title: Finance is good for the poor but it depends where you live Authors: Rewilak, Johan Abstract: I examine whether or not the incomes of the poor systematically grow with average incomes, and whether financial development enhances the incomes of the poorest quintile. Following the methodology of Dollar and Kraay (2002), I find, once extending Dollar and Kraay's data, their findings are robust to the Lucas critique and economic growth is important for poverty reduction universally. However, in comparison to other authors' work I show financial development aids the incomes of the poor in certain regions, whilst it may be detrimental in others. This proposes evidence against a "one size fits all" model adding a further contribution to the literature on financial development and poverty. Description: JEL classification O16; O57; G00 2016-02-25T15:29:31Z Market Ecologies : The Effect of Information on the Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies Ladley, Daniel Jackson, A. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36789 2016-04-25T10:01:05Z 2016-02-18T12:22:20Z Title: Market Ecologies : The Effect of Information on the Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies Authors: Ladley, Daniel; Jackson, A. Abstract: Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. Using a model market populated by individuals using a range of trading rules we show that the presence of technical traders may be beneficial, in some cases reducing volatility and increasing price efficiency. In particular, contrarian traders who base their decisions on high frequency data have the largest positive effect. It is also found that if technical traders condition their actions using 'real time' information, they partially emulate arbitrageurs and make positive profits. Description: The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2016-02-18T12:22:20Z The Impact of Government Ownership of Banks, Foreign Capital Inflows and Institutions on Financial Development Nsengiyumva, Justin http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36704 2016-02-13T04:32:35Z 2016-02-12T15:20:45Z Title: The Impact of Government Ownership of Banks, Foreign Capital Inflows and Institutions on Financial Development Authors: Nsengiyumva, Justin Abstract: This thesis consists of three empirical and one theoretical essays on three determinants of financial development (FD) namely government ownership of banks, foreign capital inflows (FCI) and institutional quality. Some research has concluded that government ownership of banks negatively affects their soundness. Bretton Wood institutions have used these conclusions to advocate for state-owned banks privatization. The first essay shows that this research was weak in the way it controlled for fundamental determinants of soundness of banks, and lacked rigorous econometric analysis. With data covering 2001-2011, we show that if there is any relationship between government ownership of banks and their subsequent soundness, it is positive. These results are robust to various measures of FD, institutional quality and econometric approaches. The second essay presents a theoretical model predicting a negative relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and FD when political institutions are weak. The third essay empirically investigates the hypothesis that the effects of ODA on FD are influenced by the level of democracy in recipient countries. Using a panel data for 37 developing countries covering 1980-2005, we apply different econometric approaches (pooled OLS, IV2SLS, fixed effects and dynamic GMM) to show that while ODA is harmful to FD in autocracies it could be effective in democracies. These results are robust to various measures of FD and democracy. The fourth essay is an empirical investigation of the hypothesis that different types of FCIs have different impacts on credit availability in developing countries. Using 5-year average data for 53 developing countries covering 1990-2013 and disaggregating FCIs into their main five types, we apply OLS, fixed effects, and dynamic GMM to show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between FDI, debt and equity and private credit while remittances and ODA are not significant determinants of private credit in developing countries. 2016-02-12T15:20:45Z Hyperbolic Punishment Functions al-Nowaihi, Ali Dhami, S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36321 2016-01-21T12:50:41Z 2016-01-20T11:45:57Z Title: Hyperbolic Punishment Functions Authors: al-Nowaihi, Ali; Dhami, S. Abstract: All models in Law and Economics use punishment functions (hereafter, PF) that incorporate a trade-off between probability of detection, p, and punishment, F. Suppose society wishes to minimize the total costs of enforcement and damages from crime, T( p,F). For a given p, an optimal punishment function (OPF) determines an F that minimizes T( p,F). A popular and tractable PF is the hyperbolic punishment function (HPF). We show that the HPF is an OPF for a large class of total cost functions. Furthermore, the HPF is an upper (lower ) bound for an even larger class of punishment functions. If the HPF cannot (can) deter crime, then none (all ) of the PF's for which the HPF is an upper (lower ) bound can deter crime. Thus, if one can demonstrate that a particular policy is ineffective (effective) under the HPF, there is no need to even compute the OPF. Our results should underpin an even greater use of the HPF. We give illustrations from mainstream and behavioral economics. 2016-01-20T11:45:57Z Behavioural Economics al-Nowaihi, Ali Dhami, S. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36320 2016-01-21T03:13:41Z 2016-01-20T11:23:22Z Title: Behavioural Economics Authors: al-Nowaihi, Ali; Dhami, S. Abstract: Behavioral economics is one of the fastest growing fields in economics. It is motivated by findings from psychology (and sociology) and uses experimental, field, and neuroeconomic evidence. Behavioral research over the past four decades has shown that two central assumptions in mainstream economics, namely, full rationality and purely selfish preferences are far less universal than was originally believed. In this essay, we bring out the role of alternative behavioral decision theories, emotions, framing effects, mental accounting, behavioral models of time discounting, new solution concepts in behavioral game theory, neuroeconomics, and the debate on liberalism and paternalism, among others. Description: The file associated with this record is under a permanent embargo while permission to archive is sought from the publisher. The full text may be available through the publisher links above. 2016-01-20T11:23:22Z Three essays on the non-linear dynamics of the finance-growth nexus Demir, Ayse Ulkuhan http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36300 2016-01-19T03:09:57Z 2016-01-18T11:16:23Z Title: Three essays on the non-linear dynamics of the finance-growth nexus Authors: Demir, Ayse Ulkuhan Abstract: This thesis provides three empirical essays on the non-linear dynamics of the finance-growth nexus using most recent econometric techniques. The first essay examines the relationship between financial structure and economic development for Germany, the USA, France and Turkey between 1989 and 2012. Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) is employed to investigate whether a dynamic change exists in the financial structure of these countries in response to a change in their stage of economic development suggested by the view of 'new structuralism'. Unlike previous literature, which classified the financial systems of Germany as bank-based, the USA as market-based and France and Turkey as in an intermediate position between these two forms, the findings of the first essay presented in this work supports 'new structuralism'. The second essay investigates the role of institutional quality on the relationship between finance and growth for 26 transition countries during 1996-2013 using the Dynamic Panel Threshold Model. The results have been reported for the entire sample and the sub-samples, Central Eastern European (CEE) and (CIS). The findings demonstrate that finance has greater effects on growth when associated with a sound institutional framework with more clear-cut results obtained in (CIS). The third essay provides new evidence on the relationship between state-ownership of banks and economic growth employing the method used in the second essay to capture differing effects of state-ownership in the banking system on growth with respect to a change in the quality of political, financial and legal institutions. The data evaluated concerned three different stages of economic development for 126 countries over the period 1999-2010. In contrast with the existing evidence which assumes homogeneity in the growth effects of the state-ownership of banks across different countries, the results of this study demonstrate this effect is rather heterogonous and depends strongly on the varying country characteristics. 2016-01-18T11:16:23Z An interactive approach to learning economics: the WinEcon package Soper, Jean B. MacDonald, Alexander B. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36236 2016-01-09T03:11:32Z 2016-01-08T17:01:37Z Title: An interactive approach to learning economics: the WinEcon package Authors: Soper, Jean B.; MacDonald, Alexander B. Abstract: Under the TLTP initiative, the Economics Consortium is developing an interactive computerbased learning package called WinEcon. The package is directed at first-year economics undergraduates, particularly those taking economics as a supplementary course. Using recent technological developments, the aim is both to facilitate a further increase in student numbers without a proportionate increase in teaching staff, and to provide a better method of student learning. Some key elements of WinEcon are set out in this paper and demonstrated by screens produced at Leicester University. Methods of presenting textual information that give the user control over accessing it are described. For learning difficult concepts, a visual active learning approach is discussed. It involves user interaction and step-by-step analysis. The importance of flexibility and choice is emphasized, and the capacity of the computer to assist in deepening and consolidating learning is shown. 2016-01-08T17:01:37Z Evidential Equilibria: Heuristics and Biases in Static Games of Complete Information al-Nowaihi, Ali Dhami, Sanjit http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36163 2016-01-06T03:09:40Z 2016-01-05T12:42:16Z Title: Evidential Equilibria: Heuristics and Biases in Static Games of Complete Information Authors: al-Nowaihi, Ali; Dhami, Sanjit Abstract: Standard equilibrium concepts in game theory find it difficult to explain the empirical evidence from a large number of static games, including the prisoners' dilemma game, the hawk-dove game, voting games, public goods games and oligopoly games. Under uncertainty about what others will do in one-shot games, evidence suggests that people often use evidential reasoning (ER), i.e., they assign diagnostic significance to their own actions in forming beliefs about the actions of other like-minded players. This is best viewed as a heuristic or bias relative to the standard approach. We provide a formal theoretical framework that incorporates ER into static games by proposing evidential games and the relevant solution concept: evidential equilibrium (EE). We derive the relation between a Nash equilibrium and an EE. We illustrate these concepts in the context of the prisoners' dilemma game. Description: JEL classifications: D03 (behavioural microeconomics: underlying principles); C7 (game theory and bargaining theory) 2016-01-05T12:42:16Z MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation Charemza, Wojciech Ladley, Daniel http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36137 2015-12-24T03:07:51Z 2015-12-23T13:42:53Z Title: MPC Voting, Forecasting and Inflation Authors: Charemza, Wojciech; Ladley, Daniel Abstract: [1st paragraph] This research is stimulated by the empirical observation that long-term inflation forecasts published by central banks which target inflation tend to be biased towards the target. To explain this we examine how the voting behaviour of members of a monetary policy committee (MPC) may influence its ability to targeting inflation. While the subject of the influence of decisions taken by the MPC on macroeconomic stability is well researched, relatively little is known about the effects of the intra-committee dynamics of MPC's on future inflation. It is hypothesized here that the manner in which MPC's make decisions, including individual preferences and interactions between MPC members, affect the decisions themselves and the subsequent outcomes. More precisely, the hypotheses are [1] bias might result from direct or indirect pressure from the leading members of the MPC on the forecasters, so that the longterm goals of the monetary policy appear to be feasible; [2] voting of the MPC members regarding policy decisions based on such biased forecasts might result in undertaking unnecessarily active decisions, which in turn lead to an increased volatility and persistence of inflation. Additionally, we aim to further the findings of Fritsche et al. (2015) and Fildes (2015), that organisational and psychological factors affect the rationality of forecasters' behaviour, by explaining the possible outcomes of such behaviour. Description: JEL codes: E47, E52, E58 2015-12-23T13:42:53Z The Effect of Violence on Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Foureaux Koppensteiner, M. Manacorda, M. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/36094 2016-03-08T13:08:25Z 2015-12-18T10:46:07Z Title: The Effect of Violence on Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Homicides in Brazil Authors: Foureaux Koppensteiner, M.; Manacorda, M. Abstract: This paper uses microdata from Brazilian vital statistics on births and deaths between 2000 and 2010 to estimate the impact of in-utero exposure to local violence – measured by homicide rates – on birth outcomes. The estimates show that exposure to violence during the first trimester of pregnancy leads to a small but precisely estimated increase in the risk of low birthweight and prematurity. Effects are found both in small municipalities, where homicides are rare, and in large municipalities, where violence is endemic, and are particularly pronounced among children of poorly educated mothers, implying that violence compounds the disadvantage that these children already suffer as a result of their households' lower socioeconomic status. Description: This paper is accepted subject to minor revisions. The file associated with this record is under a 36-month embargo from publication in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy, available at https://www.elsevier.com/about/company-information/policies/sharing. The full text may be available through the publisher links provided above. 2015-12-18T10:46:07Z Chasing trends at the micro-level: The effect of technical trading on order book dynamics Ladley, Daniel Chiarella, Chiarella http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35994 2015-12-08T03:06:19Z 2015-12-07T09:47:54Z Title: Chasing trends at the micro-level: The effect of technical trading on order book dynamics Authors: Ladley, Daniel; Chiarella, Chiarella Description: The file attached to this record is under embargo for 18mths from the date of publication. 2015-12-07T09:47:54Z Essays on Household Employment, Trade Liberalisation, and Income in Developing Countries Ajefu, Joseph Boniface http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35932 2015-11-21T03:04:24Z 2015-11-20T14:26:12Z Title: Essays on Household Employment, Trade Liberalisation, and Income in Developing Countries Authors: Ajefu, Joseph Boniface Abstract: This thesis consists of three distinct essays on development economics. In chapter 2, I examine the effect of variation in the intensity of trade policy changes across industries over time on informal sector jobs in India, taking into account heterogeneous nature of the labour market regulations, using difference-in-difference identification approach and repeated cross sectional data for the period 1988 and 1994. The results suggest that the probability of informal employment increases in more exposed industries to trade liberalisation relative to less exposed industries, but industries experienced reduction in informality if more exposed industries are located in states with flexible labour regulations. Chapter 3 of the thesis examines the relationship between parental income, child labour and human capital accumulation in India, using the unanticipated trade liberalisation that created exogenous variation in industry specific tariffs over time as instrument. The variation in industry tariff leads to differences in earnings of parents across industries, and this provides a good setting for the identification of the causal effect of changes in parents' income on child's labour and schooling. Using instrumental variable (IV) estimation approach, I find positive income effect for children's schooling but a negative effect on work, and the effect is larger for girls compared to boys. Chapter 4 examines the effect of income shocks on household welfare, taking into account various coping strategies adopted by households. Using the General Household Panel survey data in Nigeria for the period 2010-2012 and fixed effects estimation approach, idiosyncratic shocks are found to have little impact on consumption and the various risk-coping strategies play only limited roles in providing the much needed insurance to households in the face of shocks. Also, the effect of shocks vary according to households characteristics, such as whether the household-head is male or female, and being urban or rural dweller are crucial. 2015-11-20T14:26:12Z Heterogeneity, Marginal Cost and New Keynesian Phillips Curve Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35930 2015-11-21T03:04:02Z 2015-11-20T13:57:59Z Title: Heterogeneity, Marginal Cost and New Keynesian Phillips Curve Authors: Bukhari, Syed Kalim Hyder Abstract: The purpose of the thesis is to introduce novel measure of real marginal cost in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) and compares its performance with conventional mea- sures such as output gap and labour share of income. Real marginal cost is derived from a flexible function whereas labour share is based on restrictive assumption of Cobb-Douglas technology. Dynamic correlations and results of NKPC indicate that real marginal cost is better than ad hoc measure of output gap and labour share. Given the heterogeneity in price setting behaviour across sectors, cost functions and NKPC are estimated for the agriculture, manufacturing and other sectors of Pakistan's economy. Real marginal cost is derived from static and dynamic cost functions. In the presence of adjustment costs, dynamic cost functions that are consistent and integrated with their static systems are required. Such dynamic translog cost functions are estimated after testing the theoretical properties and existence of long term relationships in the static functions. Cost attributes, marginal cost, total factor productivity, technological progress, demand and substitution elasticities are derived from static and dynamic functions. Three specifications of forward looking and hybrid form of the Phillips curves are estimated with real marginal cost, output gap and labour share. Results indicate that hybrid specifications perform better than the forward looking models in terms of goodness of fit and statistical significance. Further, comparison of Phillips curves estimated with real marginal cost, output gap and labour share indicate that real marginal cost performs better in explaining inflation dynamics in Pakistan. The results indicate that forward looking behaviour dominates and high level of nominal rigidities persists in Pakistan. Finally, hybrid form of the NKPC is estimated for a panel of sixteen Asian economies. With the consideration of heterogeneity and aggregation bias, the mean group, random coefficient and weighted average coefficients are derived from individual estimates. The unobserved time variant common factors cause cross correlation in the errors that may lead towards inconsistent estimates. Therefore, cross section averages of the explanatory and the dependent variables are augmented in hybrid specification to capture the effect of latent variables. Findings suggest that the discount factor is almost 0.94, the nominal rigidities are 33% and the weights of expected and past inflation are 66% and 33% respectively. Nominal rigidities of the Asian economies are lower than the estimates for US and Euro areas. The weights of expected and past inflation of the Asian economies are consistent with the US but lower than the estimates from the Euro areas. 2015-11-20T13:57:59Z Seismic reflection and gravity investigations of the "Widmerpool Gulf" in the east Midlands, with a study of linear seismic sources and data processing techniques involving computer graphics. Arab, Nimr. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35530 2015-11-19T09:12:41Z 2015-11-19T09:12:41Z Title: Seismic reflection and gravity investigations of the "Widmerpool Gulf" in the east Midlands, with a study of linear seismic sources and data processing techniques involving computer graphics. Authors: Arab, Nimr. Abstract: The gravity anomalies in the vicinity of the Widmerpool Gulf display a strong negative trend, which is best fitted by a third degree surface. This trend is attributed to the development of thick conglomeratic and quartzitic materials, probably of O.R.S and/or Lower Palaeozoic age. The "residual" anomaly is strongly related to variations in depth to the upper surface of the Carboniferous Limestone. Due to partial continuity of sediments along the northern boundary of the gulf, the definition of the gulf in this region is not reflected in the gravity field as strongly as that at the southern boundary. A N - S seismic reflection survey shows little relief in the reflectors and a sudden thinning of sediments towards the southern boundary. At seismic stations where depth penetration was sufficient, a strong unconformity between the "basement" rocks and the younger formations is observed on the time cross section. The seismic reflection survey combined with the gravity and magnetic data, suggests that the southern limit of the gulf is faulted probably against intrusive Caledonian rocks. Theoretical and field studies of linear charges, in cord form (Geoflex) indicate that such seismic sources have definite advantages over the single point charges. This is due to their directional properties and their superior power spectral content. The interactive technique provided by computer graphical devices facilitates the exertion of complete control on the running of programmes. Seismic and gravity programmes using this technique were developed and used in this study. 2015-11-19T09:12:41Z Gender issues in communication education - A Malaysian case-study. Ambigapathy, Shanthi. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/35528 2015-11-20T04:23:50Z 2015-11-19T09:12:39Z Title: Gender issues in communication education - A Malaysian case-study. Authors: Ambigapathy, Shanthi. Abstract: This study is concerned with the politics of gender formations and the role of communication media in the perpetuation of different and changing forms of patriarchal power and of women's oppression, and communication education as one crucial site for both professional socialisation into gendered values in mass communication practice and for re-visioning these values and assumptions that sustain hegemonic masculinity. The major argument here is that gender scholarship is essential to both understanding and undermining patriarchal devices which oppress women. In Malaysia, communication education is offered at the level of higher education - an important site for producing potential communication professionals. In this connection, it is important to examine communication education programmes to understand more precisely the gender composition of faculty staff, tutors' views towards gender issues and the significance accorded to the study of gender in communication courses. This study has advanced that the curriculum which forms the foundation of the educational system is socially constructed and that the relevant context has to give attention to both the socio-cultural and structural setting. At the socio-cultural level, this study has highlighted the 'state-centric' nature of Malaysia -- the ongoing interests of patriarchy, the functioning of global market forces and the collaboration of local and foreign governments that work in complex ways to perpetuate the subordination of women. It has further been observed that the Malaysian social-cultural milieu is one that grants ethnicity as a principle factor in the re-structuring of social relations and development activities. Gender criticism occupies a marginal position and the state development policies have not directly promoted the interests of women. At the structural level, taking the case-study of the USM Communication Programme, this study has revealed patterns of male domination within its formal organisation structure. A major problem arises in a general lack of understanding where most tutors still fail to appreciate the effects of gender oppression and differentiation, and perhaps more seriously, they often fail to recognise these issues as problematic. A study of communication courses has shown that gender issues are largely excluded from discussion through the choice of topics in course syllabus, in the selection of issues in examination papers and in the selection of reference materials. This has created a major gap in the curriculum -- a silence which leaves gender issues unheard in the study of communication. In the wake of the above findings, this study has attempted to outline some initial directions, immediate strategies and priorities for a gender agenda in communication education. In particular, the study has presented syllabus guidelines that chart some fruitful lines of inquiry that can contribute towards gender conscientisation and empowerment. 2015-11-19T09:12:39Z


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With a stay at Palmetto San Miguel in Lima (San Miguel), you'll be convenient to Leyendas Park and Plaza San Miguel Mall. This hotel is within close proximity of Imagination Park and Minka Shopping Centre.
Make yourself at home in one of the 42 guestrooms featuring minibars and LCD televisions. Complimentary wireless Internet access keeps you connected, and cable programming is available for your entertainment. Private bathrooms with showers feature complimentary toiletries and hair dryers. Conveniences include desks, and housekeeping is provided daily.
Make use of convenient amenities, which include complimentary wireless Internet access and concierge services.
Grab a bite to eat at the hotel's restaurant, which features a bar, or stay in and take advantage of room service (during limited hours).
Business, Other Amenities
Featured amenities include a business center, complimentary newspapers in the lobby, and dry cleaning/laundry services. A roundtrip airport shuttle is provided for a surcharge (available 24 hours), and free self parking is available onsite.

subset: commoncrawl


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School: Bivins Elementary
Achievements: Kate is an 8-year-old third-grader who has straight A's and is in the Gifted and Talented program. She is participating in the school spelling bee with fourth- and fifth-graders. Kate has helped at Eveline Rivers, contributed to the United Way campaigns and has given food for Amarillo's canned food drive. Kate is active in the children's choir and children's bell choir at St. Paul United Methodist Church. Her parents are Jane Howk and Wayne Howk.
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Minor injuries reported in T-bone collision
February 4, 2014
The drivers of a propane truck and a sedan both complained of pain, but escaped serious injury, in a T-bone collision Friday afternoon.
The driver of the propane truck was driving down Loma Rica Avenue when the female driver of the sedan reportedly ran a stop sign at a significant rate of speed, pulling directly in front of him.
The truck was a transport truck and was hauling a propane tank that was nearly empty, said California Highway Patrol Officer Greg Tassone.
Neither driver opted to be transported for medical treatment, Tassone said.


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- If the opponent blocks blocked the hyper, he will keep blocking it long after the hyper is over, unable to attack or even move. The AI loves abusing this by starting hyper after hyper after hyper.
- Sometimes, the afterimages for the superjumps are triggered even when the template is not superjumping. Easily replicatable by, for example, a crouching HP without hitting the opponent and jumping immediately after. Might be a timing problem.
The only thing I think that was missed was repairing the example fighting hyper. I really cant see why anyone would actually use that, but I guess it's poor coding sets a bad example though
Bad Behavior has blocked 9167 access attempts in the last 7 days.


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After watching many episodes of Wild Things starring Dominic Monaghan I have discovered the man loves him a good scarf.
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Morning rundown: New line given time
You would think that it'll take some time for the Ducks to work Jason Blake into a lineup that has for the most part been together since training camp.
Not in Randy Carlyle's mind. It is sink or swim time for the 36-year-old winger.
"I don't think it's really much of a process," Carlyle said today after the team's morning skate. "You just put him in.
"It's not like you're adding a young player into your group. You're adding a veteran guy that's played numerous games in the league and scored 40-plus goals. Again, that's a little different transition for a player like that than it is a young player."
Blake spent his first game on a reconstituted second line with Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne. But while he said he didn't feel the line played particularly well and committed too many turnovers, Carlyle wants to give the trio some time to create some chemistry.
"Offensive players, you have to allow them a little bit more freedom in those areas," he said. "We feel that the combination of Blake, Selanne and Koivu should be able to provide us with a certain level of offense. Thinking it and living it is two different things.
"We just think if we stay patient and they stay with the structure and play to their level, that they should be able to do that for us."
Carlyle said Blake's arrival gives him some options that weren't there previously.
"We think that the addition of Blake can add to our team speed and give up another top-six forward in our grouping," he said. "Maybe it'll allow us to change. Instead of going with two lines primarily with offense, maybe [you] spread it out to three lines."
-- When it comes to shootouts, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are usually called up first. But you can now add defenseman James Wisniewski to the mix after he scored in first two attempts to win games in St. Louis and Tampa Bay on the recent road trip.
"He must have told you he was a weapon," Carlyle said. "But you can't take it away from the guy. The guy scored two shootout winners for you. As he's going to ride the wave, we're going to put him in the situation if it happens again."
Here's the line combinations and defense pairings, although I'll admit the fourth line has a lot more guesswork than usual:
Bobby Ryan-Ryan Getzlaf-Corey Perry
Jason Blake-Saku Koivu-Teemu Selanne
Todd Marchant-Kyle Chipchura-Troy Bodie
Matt Beleskey or Evgeny Artyukhin-Ryan Carter-George Parros or Mike Brown
Scott Niedermayer-James Wisniewski
Ryan Whitney-Steve Eminger
Brett Festerling-Sheldon Brookbank
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Nilsson House is located in Baltimore, Maryland, it provides long term drug rehab and substance abuse care with a primary focus on substance abuse treatment services Services provided include halfway house, buprenorphine used in treatment, and substance abuse treatment. Special programs available include programs for women.
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Dates and Events:
Breaking News:
2016-10-04 12:00
Video clips available to explain what OSADL is all about
Watch and like it
2016-09-17 12:00
Preemption latency of real-time Linux systems
How to measure it – and how to fix it, if it's too high?
2015-12-01 12:00
OSADL celebrates its 10-years anniversary
Ready for the next decade
2015-10-05 12:00
Real-time Linux on the go!
On its way to mainline ...
2014-11-18 00:00
Linux real-time: New stable release available -
but next one depends on more support from industrial users
2014-06-15 12:00
Help, my bootloader has no device tree support.
How can I boot a recent kernel?
Small companies and individuals who want to support OSADL's activities are invited to become an associate OSADL member. Associate members may participate at some parts of the OSADL community, enjoy discounts at OSADL-organized conferences and seminars and are listed on the OSADL Associate Member Poster. They may use the OSADL Associate Member logo in printed material and on their Website. In addition to associate members, OSADL has regular members and academic members.
Application forms for an Associate Membership in the Open Source Automation Development Lab are available in English and German language (PDF format).
OSADL Associate Member List
Associate Members of the Open Source Automation Development Lab are:
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Tjaldur Software Governance Solutions, Armijn Hemel, Tiel, The Netherlands
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reLinux - Stefan Hoffmann, Cologne, Germany
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BE.services GmbH, Dimitri Philippe, Kempten, Germany


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mmillerb Review
Love the design--fabric is low quality
Bottom line.. the fabric is cheap (thin, almost plastic-y feeling), but that's why it's so reasonably priced. Also one of my shams came without the decorative border around the edges, it's just like a plain pillow case. So they don't match and it drives me crazy. I love this print though, it's very pretty.
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