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Math is Bad for Equities
In recent years, equities have been carried higher by several compounding effects: the growth of the economy, expanding profit margins, and expanding multiples.
These three things, by definition, determine equity prices (if we assume that gross sales are tied to economic growth):
Price = Price/Earnings x Earnings/Sales x Sales
When all three are rising, as they have been, it is a strong elixir for stock prices. Now, this explains why stock prices are so high, but the devil lies in predicting these components of course – no mean feat.
Yet, we can make some observations. It has been the case for a while that P/E ratios have been extremely high by historical measures, with the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) roughly doubling since the bottom in 2009. With the exception of the equity bubble in 1999-2000, the CAPE has never been very much higher than it is now, at 26.4 (see chart, source Gurufocus). This should come as no surprise to anyone who follows markets regularly.
Somewhat less obviously, recently sales have been declining. However, on a rolling-10-year basis, the rise has been reasonably steady as the chart below (Source: Bloomberg) illustrates. Over the last 10 years, sales per share have risen about 2.85% per year.
Finally, profit margins have recently been elevated. In fact, they have been elevated for a long time; the 10-year average profit margin for the S&P 500 (see chart, source Bloomberg) has risen to 8% from 6% only a few years ago. Recently, however, profit margins have been receding.
Both the rise in profit margins and the current drop in them make some sense. Value creation at the company level must be divided between the factors of production: land, labor, and capital. When there is substantial unemployment, labor has little bargaining power and capital tends to claim a higher share. Moreover, labor's share is relatively sticky, so that speculative capital absorbs much of the business-cycle volatility in the short run. This is ever the tradeoff between the sellers of labor and the buyers of labor.
I used 10-year averages for all of these so that we can use CAPE; other measures of P/E are fraught. So, if we take 26.4 (CAPE) times 7.84% (10-year average profit margin) times 1005.55 (10-year average sales), we get an S&P index value of 2081, which is reasonably close to the end-of-May value of 2097. That's not surprising – as I said, these three things make up the price, mathematically.
So let's look forward. Recently, as the Unemployment Rate has fallen – and yes, I'm well aware that there is more slack in the jobs picture than is captured in the Unemployment Rate, but the recent direction is clear – wages have accelerated as I have documented in previous columns. It is unreasonable to expect that profit margins could stay permanently elevated at levels above all but a few historical episodes. Let's say that over the next two years, the average drops from 7.84% to 7.25%. And let's suppose that sales continue to grow at roughly 2.85% per year (which means no recession), so that sales for the S&P are at 1292 and the 10-year average at 1064.15. Then, if the long-term P/E remains at its current level, the S&P would need to decline to 2037. If the CAPE were to decline from 26.4 to, say, 22.5 (the average since 1990, excluding 1997-2002), the S&P would be at 1736.
None of this should be regarded as a prediction, except in one sense. If stock prices are going to continue to rise, then at least one of these things must be true: either multiples must expand further, or sales growth must not only become positive again but actually accelerate, or profit margins must stop regressing to the mean. None of these things seems like a sure thing to me. In fact, several of them seem downright unlikely.
The most malleable of these is the multiple…but it is also the most ephemeral, and most vulnerable to an acceleration in inflation. We remain negative on equities over the medium term, even though I recently advanced a hypothesis about why these overvalued conditions have been so durable.
Roller Skating in a Buffalo Herd
The ECB fired its "bazooka" today, cutting official rates more into negative territory, increasing QE by another €20bln per month, expanding the range of assets the central bank can buy to now include corporate bonds, and creating a new 4-year program whereby the ECB will loan long-term money to banks at rates that could be negative (based on bank credit extended to corporate and personal borrowers).
My point today is not to opine on the power or wisdom of these policy moves. The main thing I want to observe is this: the inflation market is pricing in what amounts to success for global central banks, with consumer inflation averaging something between 1 and 2 percent per year for the next decade (a bit lower in Japan; a bit higher in the UK). Not only are inflation swaps prices much lower than would be expected from a pure monetarists' standpoint – but options prices are also very low. The chart below (source: Enduring Investments) shows normalized volatilities[1] over the last five years for a 10-year, 2% year-over-year inflation cap. That is, every year you take a look and see if inflation was over 2%. If it was, then the owner of this option is paid the difference between actual inflation and 2%; if it was not, the owner gets zero. So you get to look ten times at whether inflation has gotten above 2%, and get paid each time it has.
The chart shows that whatever inflation is expected to be, the price to cover the risk that inflation is actually somewhat higher is very low. So, not only is inflation expected to be low, but it is expected to be not volatile either.
Look, we're talking about bazookas, helicopters…does something not seem right about pricing in very little risk of screwing up?
Whether you believe my thesis in my freshly-released book What's Wrong With Money?[2] that the likely course of inflation over the next few years is higher and potentially much higher, or you agree with those who think deflation is imminent, shouldn't we agree that bazookas introduce volatility?
Central banks are attempting to do something that has never been done. Shouldn't we at least be a teensy bit nervous, as they line up to perform the first-ever quintuple-lutz, that no one has ever landed one before? That no one has ever landed a commercial passenger jet on an aircraft carrier?
Uncertainty is supposed to lower asset values, all else being equal. So even if you think stocks at these levels are "fair," in an environment with earnings and interest rates where they are now and projected earnings following a certain path, an increase in the volatility of those outcomes should lower the clearing price of those assets since the buyer of the asset (which has positive value) is also assuming the volatility (which has a negative value).
But the market also says that uncertainty right now is low. Yes, the VIX is well off its lows and seems to suggest greater short-term uncertainty (see chart below, source Bloomberg) – but I would argue that the long-term volatility of the economic fundamentals has rarely been this high.
Supposedly you can't roller skate in a buffalo herd,[3] but we also have never tried to do it. There's a reason we haven't tried to do it!
But the Fed, and the rest of the world's central banks, are not only roller skating in a buffalo herd – the world's markets seem to be suggesting that investors are sure they're going to succeed. Regardless of whether you're optimistic about the outcome, I would argue it's nearly impossible to be both optimistic and highly confident!
[1] This means something to options traders but can be glossed over by non-options traders. Essentially the point is that you can't use a regular Black-Scholes model to price options if the strike and/or the forward can have a negative value!
[2] #1 on Amazon in "Economic Inflation," thanks largely to all of you!
First Ballots are in on Results of Fed Tightening
It fascinates me how bear markets all feel alike in some ways. What I remember very clearly from the equity bear markets of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 is that bulls wanted to bottom-tick the market at every imagined opportunity. Every "support level," for the first half of each decline at least, saw bulls pile in as if the train were about to leave the station without them on it. Of course, the train was about to leave the station, but it was backing up.
Today, the S&P didn't quite touch 1810 on the downside, basically matching the 1812 low from January. Bulls love double-bottoms. Of course, many of those turn out not to be double-bottoms after all, but the ones that are look very nice on the charts. So stocks rocketed off the lows, rising 25 S&P points in a matter of minutes after briefly being down 51. The rally was helped ostensibly by comments from the UAE oil minister, who claimed OPEC is ready to cooperate on a production cut. But that isn't really why stocks rallied so dramatically; after all the news only pushed crude oil itself up about a buck. The real reason is that bulls are crazy maniacs.
They're that way for a reason. If you are benchmarked against an equity index, it is very hard for an unlevered fund manager to beat that index in an up market. Once you subtract fees, and a drag from whatever cash holding you must have, you're doing well to match the index since your limitation is (by definition of 'unlevered') 100% long.[1] Where a fund manager must beat his index is in a down market, by participating less than 100% in a selloff. But being an outperformer in a down market is less valuable since customer outflows are likely to outweigh the inflows if there is a serious bear market. Therefore, fund managers naturally fall into a pattern of scalping small selloffs for outperformance. But since they can't really afford to miss being long in a bull market, there is a serious tendency to dive back in at any hint that the decline may be over.
So we get these entertaining, furious bear market rallies, which tend not to last very long. Of course, my entire premise is that this is an equity bear market, and I could be completely wrong on that. If I am, then ignore the prior paragraphs.
Where I am more confident that I am right is on the monetary policy side. Get this: since the Fed hiked rates, year-over-year M2 money growth has gone from 5.7% to…5.7%. Lest you think this anomaly (because tightening is supposed to involve a deceleration in money growth, right?!?), the 26-week growth rate in M2 has gone from 5.3% to 6.8%, and the 13-week growth rate from 2.9% to 7.3%. The annualized growth rate of M2 from mid-December to February 1st (the figure that was released today) is 11.2%. In other words, money supply growth is clearly not decelerating.
Now, in a traditional tightening, the Fed would restrict reserves and this would have the effect of reducing, or at least causing a deceleration in the growth rate of, M2 through the money multiplier. As a side effect, interest rates would rise but the point of tightening is to reduce the growth rate of money. Or, at least, it used to be.
With the Fed's current operating framework, in which interest rates are moved around like magnets on a refrigerator to the desired level, there should be no meaningful effect on money supply growth. That's not to say that money growth rates should accelerate (as they evidently have), merely that the growth rates should be stochastic with respect to authoritarian interest-rate manipulation. They may fall, or they may rise, but it should not be related to the Fed's "tightening." I've been saying this for a long, long time and the first evidence is in. The Fed's rate hike has done nothing to reduce the growth rate of money, and therefore ought to do nothing to restrain inflation. Indeed, if higher interest rates follow from a series of Fed hikes – which they haven't, but mainly because no one believes the Fed is going to hike again while their precious stocks are only 35% above fair value rather than 50% – then the expected effect would be for monetary velocity to rise and inflation to accelerate.
At this point, the Fed can thank the market that their moves haven't accelerated the already-established trend towards higher inflation. But the clock is ticking. If the Fed does indeed hike rates next month, the bond market may start taking it seriously and start the rates-inflation spiral.
[1] Unless, of course, you're adding alpha. But the universe of fund managers adds approximately zero alpha – slightly positive, and negative net of fees. Except whoever your manager is, of course. I'm sure he's the best. Good job finding him!
Zigs and Zags
"The market," said J.P. Morgan, when asked for his opinion on what the market would do, "will fluctuate."
Truer words were never spoken, but the depth of the truism as well is interesting. One implication of this observation – that prices will vary – is that the patient investor should mostly ignore noise in the markets. Ben Graham went further; he proposed thinking about a hypothetical "Mister Market," who every day would offer to buy your stocks or sell you some more. On some days, Mister Market is fearful and offers to sell you stocks at a terrific discount; on other days, he is ebullient and offers to buy your holdings at far more than they are worth. Graham argued that this can only be a positive for an investor who knows the value of the business he holds. He can sell it if Mister Market is paying too much, or buy it if Mister Market is selling it too cheaply.
Graham did not give enough weight to momentum, as opposed to value – the idea that Mister Market might be paying too much today, but if you sell your holdings to him today, then you might miss the opportunity to sell them to him next year for double the stupid price. And, over the last couple of decades, momentum has become far more important to most investors than has value. (I blame CNBC, but that's a different story).
In either case, the point is important – if you know what you own, and why you own it, and even better if you have an organized framework for thinking about the investment that is time-independent (that is, it doesn't depend on how you feel today or tomorrow), then the zigs and zags don't matter much to you in terms of your existing investments.
(As for future investments, young people should prefer declining asset markets, since they will be investing for long periods and should prefer lower prices to buy rather than higher prices; on the other hand, retirees should prefer rising asset prices, since they will be net sellers and should prefer higher prices to lower prices. In practice, everyone seems to like higher prices even though this is not rational in terms of one's investing life.)
We have recently been experiencing a fair number of zigs, but mostly zags over the last couple of weeks. The stock market is near the last year's lows – but, it should be noted, it still holds 84% of its gains since March 2009, so it is hardly disintegrating. The dividend yield of the S&P is 2.32%, the highest in some time and once again above 10-year Treasury yields. On the other hand, according to my calculations the expected 10-year return to equities is only about 1.25% more per annum than TIPS yields (0.65% plus inflation, for 10 years), so they are not cheap by any stretch of the imagination. The CAPE is still around 24, which about 50% higher than the historical average. But, in keeping with my point so far: none of these numbers has changed very much in the last couple of weeks. The stock market being down 10%, plus or minus, is a fairly small move from a value perspective (from a momentum perspective, though, it can and has tipped a number of measures).
But here is the more important overarching point to me, right now. I don't worry about zigs and zags but what I do worry about is the fact that we are approaching the next bear market – whether it is this month, or this year, or next year, we will eventually have a bear market – with less liquidity then when we had the last bear market. Dealers and market-makers have been decimated by regulations and constraints on their deployment of capital, in the name of making them more secure and preventing a "systemic event" in the next calamity. All that means, to me, is that the systemic event will be more distributed. Each investor will face his own systemic event, when he finds the market for his shares is not where he wanted it to be, for the size he needed it to be. This is obviously less of a problem for individual investors. But mutual fund managers, pension fund managers – in short, the people with the big portfolios and the big positions – will have trouble changing their investment stances in a reasonable way (yet another reason to prefer smaller funds and managers, but increasing regulation has also made it very difficult to start and sustain a smaller investment management franchise). Another way to say this is that it is very likely that while the average or median market movement is likely to be similar to what it has been in the past, the tails are likely to be longer than in the past. That is, we may not go from a two-standard-deviation event to a four-standard-deviation event. We may go straight to a six-standard-deviation event.
If market "tails" are likely to be longer than in the past because of (il)liquidity, then the incentive for avoiding those tails is higher. This is true in two ways. First, it creates an incentive for an investor to move earlier, and lighten positions earlier, in a potential downward move in the market. And second, in the context of the Kelly Criterion (see my old article on this topic, here), rising volatility combined with decreased liquidity in general means that at every level of the market, investors should hold more cash than they otherwise would.
I don't know how far the market will go down, and I don't really care. I am prepared for "down." What I care about is how fast.
A Good Time to Remember
Some days make me feel so old. Actually, most days make me feel old, come to think of it; but some days make me feel old and wise. Yes, that's it.
It is a good time to remember that there are a whole lot of people in the market today, many of them managing many millions or even billions of dollars, who have never seen a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve. The last one began in 2004.
There are many more, managing many more dollars, who have only seen that one cycle, but not two; the previous tightening cycle began in 1999.
This is more than passing relevant. The people who have seen no tightening cycle at all might be inclined to believe the hooey that tightening is bullish for stocks because it means a return to normalcy. The people who have seen only one tightening cycle saw the one that coincided with stocks' 35% rally from 2004-2007. That latter group absolutely believes the hooey. The fact that said equity market rally began with stocks 27% below the prior all-time high, rather than 32% above it as the market currently is, may not have entered into their calculations.
On the other hand, the people who dimly recall the 1999 episode might recall that the market was fine for a little while, but it didn't end well. And you don't know too many dinosaurs who remember the abortive tightening in 1997 in front of the Asian Contagion and the 1994 tightening cycle that ended shortly after the Tequila crisis.
Moreover, it is a good time to remember that no one in the market today, or ever, can remember the last time the Fed tightened in an "environment of abundant liquidity," which is what they call it when there are too many reserves to actually restrain reserves to change interest rates. That's because it has never happened before. So if anyone tells you they know with absolute certainty what is going to happen, to stocks or bonds or the dollar or commodities or the economy or inflation or anything else – they are relying on astrology.
Many of us have opinions, and some more well-informed than others. My own opinion tends to be focused on inflationary dynamics, and I remain very confident that inflation is going to head higher not despite the Fed's action today, but because of it. I want to keep this article short because I know you have a lot to read today, but I will show you a very important picture (source: Bloomberg) that you should remember.
The white line is the Federal Funds target rate (although that meant less at certain times in the past, when the rate was either not targeted directly, as in the early 1980s, or the target was represented as a range of values). The yellow line is core inflation. Focus on the tightening cycles: in the early 1970s, in the late 1970s, in 1983-84, in the late 1980s, in the early 1990s, in 1999-2000, and the one beginning in 2004. In every one of those episodes, save the one in 1994, core inflation either began to rise or accelerated, after the Fed began to tighten.
The generous interpretation of this fact would be that the Fed peered into the future and divined that inflation was about to rise, and so moved in spectacularly-accurate anticipation of that fact. But we know that the Fed's forecasting abilities are pretty poor. Even the Fed admits their forecasting abilities are pretty poor. And, as it turns out, this phenomenon has a name. Economists call it the "price puzzle."
If you have been reading my columns, you know this is no puzzle at all for a monetarist. Inflation rises when the Fed begins to tighten because higher interest rates bring about higher monetary velocity, because velocity is the inverse of the demand for real cash balances. That is, when interest rates rise you are less likely to leave money sitting idle; therefore, investors and savers play a game of monetary 'hot potato' which gets more intense the higher interest rates go – and that means higher monetary velocity. This effect happens almost instantly. After a time, if the Fed has raised rates in the traditional fashion by reducing the growth rate of money and reserves, the slower monetary growth rate comes to dominate the velocity effect and inflation ebbs. But this takes time.
And, moreover, as I have pointed out before and will keep pointing out as the Fed tightens: in this case, the Fed is not doing anything to slow the growth rate of money, because to do that they would have to drain reserves and they don't know how to do that. I expect money growth to remain at its current level, or perhaps even to rise as higher interest rates provoke more bank lending without and offsetting restraint coming from bank reserve scarcity. By moving interest rates by diktat, the Fed is increasing monetary velocity and doing nothing (at least, nothing predictable) with the growth rate of money itself. This is a bad idea.
No one knows how it will turn out, least of all the Fed. But if market multiples have anything to do with certainty and low volatility – then we might expect lower market multiples to come.
Walmart Traffic may be Down but Wall Street Traffic is Up
Walmart (WMT) didn't have its best day today. The bellwether retailer forecast a profit decline of 6-12% in its 2017 fiscal year, in some part because of a $1.5bln increase in wage expenses; the stock dropped 10% to its lowest level since 2012 and off about 33% from the highs (see chart, source Bloomberg).
I mention Walmart neither to recommend it nor to pan it, but only because in the absence of news from WMT I would have been inclined to ignore the modest downside surprise in Retail Sales today; September Retail Sales ex-auto-and-gasoline were unchanged versus expectations for a +0.3% rise. But Retail Sales, like Durable Goods, is a wildly volatile number (see chart, source Bloomberg).
This was a bad month, but it wasn't the worst month in 2015. It wasn't even the second or third-worst month in 2015. Looking at a monthly figure, it is difficult to reject any null hypothesis; put another way, you really cannot discern whether +0.5% is statistically different from +0.0%. [I didn't actually do the test…I am just making the general statistical observation.] Today's data will tweak the Q3 forecasts a bit lower, but isn't anything to be upset about. Except, that is, for the fact that Walmart is bleeding.
There is something else that is different about this decline, and really about this whole year. I have documented in the past the steady decline in equity volumes that has been occurring for almost a decade now. The chart below shows the cumulative NYSE volume, by trading day of the year, for 2006 through present. Note the steady march lower in volumes year after year after year. 2014 and 2013 were almost mirror images, so you can't see 2014. But notice the thicker black line: that is 2015.
Here is another way to illustrate the same thing. By year, here is the number of days that less than 1 billion shares traded in NYSE Composite Volume.
|Number of sub-billion share days
In 2015, we are on pace for a mere 228 sub-billion share days.
I guess by now my point is plain, but here is one more chart and that is the rolling 20-day composite volume for 2014 (lower line) and 2015 (upper line).
In general, volumes have been higher this year, but the real divergence began at the end of July, when the lines began to move away from each other more rapidly. The equity breakdown started on August 20th.
What does this all mean? Rising trading volumes while markets are declining suggests we should consider imputing more significance to what many are calling a correction but which may be the beginning of something deeper. There are re-allocations happening, and outright sales – not just fast money slinging positions around. Technically, this is supposed to put more weight on the "damage" done by this correction, and raise a bit of a warning flag about the medium-term set-up.
Incidentally, you can buy warning flags cheaply at Walmart.
Recession Won't Be Fun…But Better than Last Time
Yesterday, I mentioned the likelihood that a recession is coming. The indicators for this are mostly from the manufacturing side of the economic ledger, and they are at this point merely suggestive. For example, the ISM Manufacturing Index is at 50.2, below which level we often see deeper downdrafts (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Capacity Utilization, which never got back to the level over 80% that historically worries the Fed about inflation, has been slipping back again (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Now, we have to be a bit careful of these "classic" indicators because of the increased weight of mining and exploration in GDP compared with the last few cycles. A good part of the downturn in Capacity Utilization, I suspect, could be traced to weakness in the oil patch. But at the same time, we cannot blithely dismiss the manufacturing weakness as being "all about oil" in the same way that Clinton supporters once dismissed Oval Office shenanigans as being "all about sex." Oil matters, in this economy. In fact, I would go so far as to say that while historically a declining oil price was a boon to the nation as a whole (which is why we never suffered much from the Asian Contagion: the plunge in commodity prices tended to support the U.S., which is generally a net consumer of resources), in this cycle low oil prices are probably neutral at best, and may even be contractionary for the country as a whole.
Whether we have a recession in the near term (meaning beginning in the next six months or so) or further in the future, here is one point that is important to make. It will not be a "garden variety" recession, in all likelihood. That is not because we have boomed so much, but because we are levered so much. There are no more "garden variety" recessions.
Financial leverage in an economy, just as in individual businesses, increases economic volatility. So does operational leverage (which means: deploying fixed capital rather than variable inputs such as labor – technology, typically). And our economy has both in spades. The chart below (source: Bloomberg) shows the debt of domestic businesses as a percentage of GDP. Businesses are currently more levered than they were in 2007, both in raw debt figures and as a percentage of GDP.
Investors fearing recession should shift equity allocations (to the extent some equity allocation is retained) to less-levered businesses. But be careful: some investors think of growth companies as being low-leverage but tech companies (for example) in fact have very high operating leverage even if financial leverage is low. Both are bad when earnings decline – and growth firms typically have less of a margin of safety on price. I tried to do a screen on low-debt, low-PE, high-dividend non-tech companies with decent market caps and didn't find very much. Canon (CAJ), Guess? Inc (GES) to name a couple of examples…and neither of those have low P/E ratios. (I don't like to invest in individual stocks in any event but I mention these for readers who do – these aren't recommendations and I neither own them nor plan to, but may be worth some further research if you are looking for names.)
On the plus side, economically-speaking, relatively heavy personal income taxation also acts as an automatic stabilizer. On the minus side, this is less true if the tax system is heavily progressive, since it isn't the higher-paid employees who tend to be the ones who are laid off (except on Wall Street, where it is currently de rigueur to cut experienced, expensive staff and retain less-experienced, cheaper staff). Back on the plus side, a large welfare system tends to be an automatic stabilizer as well. On the minus side, all of these fiscal stabilizers merely move growth from the future to the present, so the deeper the recession the slower the future growth.
And, of course – there is nothing that central banks can really do about this, unless it is to make policy rates negative to spur additional extension of negative-NPV loans (that is, loans to less-creditworthy borrowers). I am not sure that even our central bank, with its unhealthy fear of the cleansing power of recession, thinks that's a good idea.
There is some good news, as we brace for this next recession: while overall levels of debt are higher for businesses, financials, and households, the debt burden compared to GDP is lower for households and especially for domestic financial institutions (see chart, source Bloomberg).
Our banks are in relatively good health, compared with their condition headed into the last downturn. So this will not be a calamity, as in 2008. But I don't expect it to only be a "mild" recession, either – as if any recession ever feels mild to individuals!


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2005 Subaru Forester X AWD 4dr Wagon (2.5L 4cyl 5M)
After 190,000 miles it runs great. Changed the oil every 5K, gone through 3 sets of tires and one brake job 2 weeks ago.
AWD and big trunk area.
Give the newer model more hip room, for big guys like me it would make the driving even better.
I purchased the Forester while looking for a small SUV. I thought about a Forester several years before, but passed on it. When I came back for another look, I knew it was for me after the test drive. Personally, I love the interior and the I4 engine is good enough for it. It's not going to go roaring down the interstate, but it's got more pep than many other I4's seem to have. I've had it for a year and I'm completely satisfied with it and would recommend it to anyone looking for a moderately priced small SUV without all the frills. All the usual convenience features are there.
Interior styling, above average get up and go for an I4.
Gas mileage seems to really go down when reaching 70mph plus.
Had a 2000 Forester and replaced it with the 2005 after looking at CRV, RAV4 and Sportage. Though few visible changes, I can see great improvements over the 2000 model in mileage, acceleration and interior trim. This is my third Subaru and they can't be beat for cold climates.
AWD, and you can still get a real stick shift. Great choice to trim levels and performance options. Strong owner community to tap into for information.
Radio controls on the steering wheel would be great.
I owned a 1998 Forester, and when it went up at 150,000 miles I had no hesitation at buying another. I feel that the 2005 is not as good as my 1998. Already the carpet on the driver side has a big tear (thin carpet), the windows rattle, and the compressor in my ac just went up. And the transmission doesn't shift smoothly. I'll be shopping around for a new manufacturer when this one goes up.
Cargo area with cover
Sturdier carpet, ridge around roof so when it rains the water doesn't drip.
Always wanted to own one but there are hardly any used ones available in So. California. So went out and bought a brand new one. Although basic model, driving in the past 2 years was a pleasant experience. I like the easy self-maintenance, such as oil and filter (cabin and air) changes. Interior is simple and durable. Driving position is very good and handling is fine. Body integrity could be better - a rattle developed in the rear/left without being able to localize the source. The extras that do not come with the car are easily available from Subaru dealers and fairly simply to install. Quality and workmanship is excellent.
Gated gear selector (a safety issue). Ample rear cargo space with split rear reclining seats. Sufficient ground clearance. Factory roof rack rails. Powerful air condition and heat. Simple and logical controls. Easy to handle and park. Firm yet controlled ride.
Tinted windows should have been standard in the southeast. Rear deck outside closing handle. It is available in Europe and Japan as an option, but not sold here. It helps to close rear gate when wet and muddy. Noticeable road noise from standard equipped tires.
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Weekend Teaching Series: Happy: Week 1
Sermon Title: Step One: Realizing I am not God
Sermon in a Sentence: A study of recovery and hope from the beautitudes.
Service Length: 78 minutes
Bible: Matthew 5:3 (NCV)
Understandable Message: Doug Fields kicked off the new series this weekend in HSM. The entire church is doing this study – Life's Healing Choices its called in big church and Happy in HSM and Wildside (jr high). He covered the first step in happiness, which is realizing that you are not in control but that God is. Doug used a couple of powerful illustrations to help our students think about the path they had planned for their lives, and presented them with the opportunity to follow God's path. He kept things interesting a clip from Shark Tank, and a fantastic story of one of our high school students from a local high school.
Volunteer/Student Involvement: This was choir weekend which we do about once a month, so we had students everywhere and the energy was fantastic. Students sang and played in the band, and also made up the greeters, cleanup/setup and even helped me host an opening game. Students also manned lights, sound, cameras – and for the first time ever – completely ran all of the positions in video control room and computers, too. TONS of students involved!
Element of Fun/Positive Environment: We had some fun with a little character called FACE, an animated smiley face that we could have do all sorts of funny expressions and voiced totally improv by Jake Rutenbar. We also had a fun game up front – a Search and Seizure game that turned into Let's Make a Deal – all in keeping with the theme where the winner would become 'very happy.' Lots of fun, and epic music rounded out a solid weekend. Download the program sheet here.
Music Playlist: Sweet Home Alabama (during countdown), Yours Forever, Your Name High, Song of the Broken, Hold Me Now, Your Name High (reprise)
Favorite Moment: Doug used an illustration about playing in the dirt vs playing at Disneyland that has really stuck with me (and I hope our students this week). Really clear illustration of what we think is happiness, but God opening the gates to His kingdom to us when we follow His ways.
Up Next: Happy, week 2


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Colombo Hostels, Sri Lanka
See all Hostels in Colombo
Hostel | 1.5 km
Colombo City Hostel is your home away from home in Sri Lankafrom 11.00 USD
Hostel | 0.8 km
CityRest Fort is located at the heart of Colombo's City Center with easy access to the City's main Bus and Train stations and offers clean and…Read more comfortable accommodation to budget conscious travelers and backpackers. The Motel comprises of 17 Quadruple and Triple Dorm rooms as well as Private bedrooms. All rooms are fully Air Conditioned and are additionally fitted with a ceiling fan for guests' comfort.from 15.00 USD
Hostel | 3.4 km
Clock Inn Colombo is located in the heart of Galle Road, Colombo; its approx. a 2 minute walk or a 5 minute tri-shaw ride from major tourist…Read more attractions,restaurants,& shopping areas in the City. The Indian Visa Office is just 5 minute walk. The Inn consists of Beds, Dorms, & Private Rooms;& a well equipped lobby & lounge area to make your stay even more comfortable.from 14.00 USD
Hostel | 9.9 km
Colombo Beach Hostel is approx 10km from the city centre, and is located within a 5 mins walk from the Main road. The closet Railway Station…Read more (Mount Lavinia) is approx 500mtrs from our place. CBH is on De Saram Road, which is close to the Beach, and offers you peace and tranquility, and is ideal spot to relax in after a busy day.from 7.00 USD
Hostel | 3.3 km
Drift BnB is a cosy modern hotel tucked away in the heart of Colombo's Central District, just minutes walk from the city's best galleries, cafes,…Read more shops, restaurants and the ocean. Free high speed Wi-Fi is available throughout the building. The Galle Road bus stop is 50m down the road and the train station is around the corner.from 15.18 USD
Hostel | 1.7 km
Located in the heart of Colombo, with walking distance to the Central Bus station and Central Rail station. City Motel provides travelers a very…Read more affordable, comfortable and convenient option to stay in Colombo.from 9.00 USD
Hotel | 1.9 km
Welcome to the standard city hotel in the heart of the city. You can enjoy the fully Air-conditioned rooms with hot and cool water. Free WiFi…Read more enabled surrounding and 24' LED TV, Mini Bar and Fully satisfied meal and coffee service. Walking distance from Central Bus -Stand, Railway Station, nearly covered with shopping area where you enjoy the simple and cheap shopping.from 33.00 USD
Hostel | 11.0 km
Hitchhike Backpackers is a brand new hostel located in a quiet yet perfectly sited location in Mount Lavinia, Colombo. As a family run hostel…Read more our aim is to deliver clean, comfortable and safe accommodation whilst also giving you tips and tricks to explore the very best of Sri Lanka! All in all with great value for money.from 9.00 USD
Hostel | 7.8 km
Adikaram Sea View hostel is situated at Dehiwala , Colombo by the beautiful beach and has a Sea View.from 5.82 USD
Hostel | 9.8 km
Mount Lavinia City is an urban district immediately south of Colombo. . The district comprises several distinct communities, including Dehiwala,…Read more the beach resort of Mount Lavinia . Mount lavinia city is a seaside resort known for its beaches, and Dehiwala is noted for its zoological garden. It can be reached via the main Galle Road which runs along the coast down to the south of the country.from 8.32 USD
Hostel | 3.7 km
Modern accommodation with free Wi-Fi access throughout Moss Colombo. A large variety of restaurants, bars, cafes, shops and art galleries can…Read more be found within a few minutes walk away.from 16.45 USD
Hostel | 4.5 km
The Deane Residence is located on Gunaratna Avenue, Off Thimbirigasyaya road, Colombo 05.from 7.00 USD
Hostel | 4.7 km
Tucked away in a cosmopolitan environment, Halcyon House Colombo - is located in a Private lane/Quiet Street in the heart of the business district…Read more in Sri Lanka.from 15.00 USD
Hostel | 10.8 km
Mount Colonial Hostel has many common areas and greenery to relax.from 10.00 USD
Hostel | 2.7 km
Lilac by Seclusion has a rooftop dining area and lounge is available for travelers to enjoy the lovely sea breeze.from 8.00 USD
Browse the list above for details on all our hostels in Colombo and book Colombo hostels with no booking fee! Colombo is one of over 3,500 worldwide destinations available on hostelbookers.
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Top rated Colombo Hostels
Read what people have to say about our top rated Hostels in Colombo
- 1. Drift BnB Colombo 95%
- 2. Hitchhike Backpackers 92%
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- 4. Mount Lavinia Home Stay 87%
- 5. Colombo City Hostel 88%
Guide to Colombo
Guide to Find our best travel tips, advice and inspiration on what to do and where to stay in our guide to Colombo. Discover how to travel on a budget and don't forget to check the weather before you go!


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The Toyota Research Institute of North America (TRINA), Electronics Research Department (ERD), is seeking research proposals on two technical topics. Application can be found below TRINA, established in 2008, is a…read more
Researcher Finds Cheaper Way To Cool Electronic Devices
April 20th, 2012
A North Carolina State University researcher has developed a technique that uses a "heat spreader" made of a copper-graphene composite, which is attached to the electronic device using an indium-graphene interface film, both of which…read more
Posted in Coolers, News, TECs | Comments Off on Researcher Finds Cheaper Way To Cool Electronic Devices
Thermally Conductive Grease Used for Solar Industry
May 10th, 2011
A product that is proving useful to the solar industry is LORD Corporation's TC-501 Thermally Conductive Grease. This solvent-free, silicone thermal interface material (TIM) is designed to replace greases used as TIMs between the heat…read more
Posted in New Products, TIMs | Comments Off on Thermally Conductive Grease Used for Solar Industry
Integrated Heat Pipe Spreader for Improved FBDIMM Memory Module Thermal Management
November 1st, 2008
Introduction Due to the increasing power density in today's industry standard servers, thermal design and cooling is a significant challenge. In a typical server, the two most challenging elements to cool are the processors and…read more
Posted in Heat Pipes, Technical Brief | Comments Off on Integrated Heat Pipe Spreader for Improved FBDIMM Memory Module Thermal Management
Diamonds are a Thermal Designer's Best Friends
February 1st, 2002
Different forms of carbon, such as processed natural graphite, pyrolytic graphite, diamond-like carbon, and synthetic diamond, offer lots of possibilities for maximizing conductive heat transfer.Synthetic diamond has already found its place as a common solution…read more
Posted in Design, Materials, Compounds, Adhesives, Substrates, Technical Data, Test & Measurement | Comments Off on Diamonds are a Thermal Designer's Best Friends
The Role of Natural Graphite in Electronics Cooling
August 1st, 2001
Graphite is available as a variety of different material forms, the most useful in the electronics cooling market being pyrolytic graphite, graphite fiber reinforced carbon and polymer matrix composites, graphite foams and, the subject of…read more
Posted in Design, Heat Sinks, Materials, Compounds, Adhesives, Substrates, Technical Brief, TIMs | Comments Off on The Role of Natural Graphite in Electronics Cooling


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Rustic Chicken Stew
Total Time
Prep 20 mins
Cook 50 mins
A rich and hearty stew that will warm you up on the cold days. It is easy to put together with ingredients that you usually have on hand. If you prefer to have your veggies cut a little smaller, that works too - just watch that they do not overcook. The nice thing about this recipe is that you can do most of the prep as the stew is cooking. The chicken thighs and mushrooms add a great meaty texture. Try this with some crusty bread.
Ingredients Nutrition
- 5 cups chicken broth
- 2 dried bay leaves
- 1 1⁄2 lbs chicken thighs, boneless skinless
- 1 1⁄2 cups carrots, large dice
- 2 cups russet potatoes, unpeeled, cut into 1 cubes (peel them if you prefer)
- 2 tablespoons butter
- 1 1⁄2 cups onions, coarsely chopped
- 1 cup celery, coarsely chopped
- 1 1⁄2 cups button mushrooms (halved or quartered)
- 1⁄2 teaspoon dried thyme
- 2 teaspoons dried parsley (2 tablespoons fresh chopped)
- 1⁄4 cup flour
- 1⁄4 cup milk (or 1/4 cup cream)
- 1 cup frozen cut green beans, thawed
- salt and pepper
- In a large saucepan, bring broth to a low simmer and add bay leaves and chicken thighs. Simmer for 20 minutes. Remove chicken with a slotted spoon and coarsely chop when cool enough to handle. While chicken is cooling, add carrots and potatoes to broth. Add chicken when chopped.
- Meanwhile, melt butter over medium heat in a non-stick frying pan. Add onion, celery and mushrooms and sauté until soft, about 5-7 minutes, stirring occasionally. Stir in thyme, parsley, and flour. Stir until flour is absorbed and add mixture to broth.
- Simmer stew for 15 to 20 minutes or until your potatoes and carrots are almost cooked to your preference. Add beans and milk or cream and let heat for 5 minutes. Add salt and pepper to taste. Remove bay leaves and serve!
Most Helpful
This stew is yummy. A pleasure to cook and a pleasure to serve.
Made and reviewed for RSC #15: I made this for a customer appreciation day at work and it turned out wonderful! I ended up forgetting to add the green beans but it still was wonderful and very easy. It had a wonderfully creamy texture and feeling in my mouth with a well-rounded flavor. The mushrooms added a lot of depth. For ease of transportation, I diced all the veggies, cooked the meat, and made the roux all separate from each other and then added them at work. The only change I would have made would have been to chop the veggies smaller. Will definitely make again. Thanks!
2/22/10 RSC recipe. My family really enjoyed this meal. It is freezing here and the snowstorms just keep coming. Perfect warm me up food. I often use thyme in dishes with chicken and I love it. Used homemade broth for low salt. 1/4 c half and half, and minimal mushrooms ( not a real fan) but used for recipe. (we picked them out) Next time I would add more of everything to double it as the whole family enjoyed it. Served with Finger Rolls - Perfect for Soup and Sandwich. Thank you chef and good luck.


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Donald Driver and family featured in People magazine
Green Bay Packers all-time leading receiver and dance champion Donald Driver and his family will be featured in People magazine's special holiday issue which hits newsstands on Thursday.
People sent a camera crew to his house in Green Bay for a photo shoot with the family so it's possible there will be at least one photo of the family in matching pajamas - suitable for framing or holiday cards. »Read Full Article
'Walking Dead' stars, producer coming to Riverside Theater
Between the unfathomably desperate conditions, an extreme distrust of others and the constant fear of death, things are plenty tough for the unlucky living enduring a cataclysmic zombie apocalypse on AMC's "The Walking Dead."
But the show itself couldn't be sitting any prettier. »Read Full Article
Mequon's Bhati Beads accessorize SI swimsuit models
Margaret Maggard of Mequon might be the only person watching Sports Illustrated Swimsuit 2013 models on "The Today Show" this morning because of what they were wearing on their wrists.
It's the seventh year that the magazine has used Maggard's Bhati Beads jewelry to accessorize its famous models. In the segment, Gomes and Henderson joined Sports Illustrated senior editor MJ Day to talk about the fit, the look and the style of swimsuits. »Read Full Article
Here's your chance to design the 2013 Jazz in the Park T-shirt
Jazz plus art equals the chance to design the official 2013 Jazz in the Park T-shirt.
The competition is open to all professional and amateur designers. Consideration will be given to designs honoring the heritage of jazz and calling to mind music ranging from New Orleans to Chicago to New York and places in between while never forgetting that this is Milwaukee. »Read Full Article
On Tap Today: A time for restraint - and John McClane
Lent begins today, a season of reflection, self-denial and restraint.
But that doesn't mean you have to give up everything. »Read Full Blog Post


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A voting recommendation
September 24, 2016 To the editor: I don't want to know who my friends are voting for or why, if they are voting for one of the major party candidates for presiden. more »»
Not a Trump fan
September 24, 2016 To the editor: I was just thinking of a song from church in my childhood — but now it would be quite different. more »»
Emily's event succeeds
September 23, 2016 To the editor: What a perfect day for Emily's event on Aug. 13 — the third annual Emily's Fight, Donate Life 5K Walk/Run. more »»
Appreciates Honor Flight
September 23, 2016 To the editor: Thanks to Ron Newsum and all of the Brushy Creek board members. All of the veterans will remember you as well as veterans' families and friends. more »»
A note of thanks
September 23, 2016 To the editor: I am the activity director at the Marian Home and Village here in Fort Dodge and on two separate occasions while we were at Perkins an anonymous person paid for our lunch; both times... more »»
Opposes hog confinement
September 19, 2016 To the editor: In recent months Iowa Select Farms has submitted applications for a proposed 5,000-head hog confinement to be constructed one mile from the city limits of Clare. more »»
Concerned about cemetery
September 19, 2016 To the editor: I am responding to Ms. Dahll's Sept. 3 letter published in The Messenger regarding the neglect of North Lawn Cemetery. more »»
Join The Art Club
September 19, 2016 To the editor: Since the beginning of the 20th century, The Art Club has been meeting in Fort Dodge. more »»
Send a message
September 17, 2016 To the editor: George Washington, in his farewell address, tried to warn us about a two-party system. more »»
Weighs in on presidential race
September 17, 2016 To the editor: A recent pro-Hillary ad portrays a woman member of a Gold Star family saying she was outraged after Trump's recent comments about the Khizr Khan family. more »»
Disapproves of Trump
September 10, 2016 To the editor: Trump is the me-first, forget-about-everyone-else candidate. more »»
'Proud to be an American'
September 10, 2016 To the editor: How refreshing to read Cal Thomas' column: "An Oath for America", (Sept. 3). more »»
Event in Webster City succeeds
September 3, 2016 To the editor: The Arts R Alive in Webster City Committee would like to thank all who attended and helped make the sixth annual Sculpture Event and Seneca Street Painting a success. more »»
Not pleased with cemetery
September 3, 2016 To the editor: I am here visiting from Washington state, having been born in Iowa I still have many relatives living here. more »»
Thanks for supporting Affirmative Action Awareness Summit
September 3, 2016 To the editor: I would like to sincerely thank the community for participating and supporting the 4th Congressional District Democratic Affirmative Action Awareness Summit on July 30. more »»
Dislikes some editorials
August 30, 2016 To the editor: This is an unusual presidential election year; characterizations by opposing party members have become extremely persona. more »»
Lauds Fort Dodge
August 30, 2016 To the editor: An old African proverb says "It takes a village to raise a child." The "village" I was raised in was Fort Dodge. more »»
Ron Prestage responds
August 29, 2016 To the editor: On behalf of the Prestage family, our employees, production partners, colleagues in the pork industry and agriculture in general, we thank those that supported our effort to build the... more »»
'Look deep ... inside yourselves'
August 23, 2016 To the editor: What is the huge hurry for Wright County to pass the proposal for Prestage's hog slaughter plant? When it was under discussion in Mason City, Prestage said that if they couldn't start... more »»
Save the date
August 22, 2016 To the editor: Save Saturday from 7:30 to 10:30 p.m. to join us for a night of fun, dancing to 1950s and 1960s music provided by Midwest Revue at Rides Banquet Hall 723 S. 31st St. more »»


text:
You can see old stuff in:
Fandyllic's talk page Edit
Twitter WidgetEdit
Since you're an admin, I suggest that you add the official twitter feed of Downton Abbey to the front page. The right column right now has a gap and the twitter widget can fill a bit of that up. It's very common for wikis to have a twitter widget on their front page so it could be a great addition to this wiki.TimeShade ☎ ✍ 09:59, December 27, 2014 (UTC)
- See Twitter widget on the front page?. -- Fandyllic (talk · contr) 8 Jan 2015 11:09 AM Pacific
Are you here?Edit
You may remember that, eons ago, we had Robert's father as "Patrick Crawley"; well... I think I found where it came from. Right here. Under Robert it has him as "He is the son of the late Patrick Crawley and his wife, Violet". Should we re-add it in? --HarryPotterRules1 (talk) 23:04, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
- It's borderline, but go ahead. Use this as a ref:
<ref>[https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=YQ3Di0adR8UC&q=patrick+violet#v=snippet&q=patrick%20violet&f=false Robert Crawley, Earl of Grantham] in [https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=YQ3Di0adR8UC Downton Abbey: The Unofficial Guide to Seasons One and Two: BookCaps Study Guide]</ref>
- This is technically not a good source, because it is unofficial, but it should be fine unless something contradicts it. -- Fandyllic (talk · contr) 27 Aug 2015 3:20 PM Pacific
Thanks. That is why I asked. If the show says differently - unlikely, given it's the final season *cry cry!* - then we'll change it.--HarryPotterRules1 (talk) 12:06, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
Hey, I'm sorry, but we do not advertise wikis on our homepage if they don't do the same. Thank you anyway! KILLIAN JONES ~ I hate you, flying jellyfish! 21:01, September 20, 2015 (UTC)
Re: Doing a good jobEdit
Hello. Thank you very much for the offer. I am happy to accept. --RotomicAcid: Remember, we are the Edwardians 21:20, September 23, 2015 (UTC)
HELP REQUESTEDEdit
I'm trying to make an edit to the "List of Minor Off Screen Characters, Patrick Crawley, 6th Earl of Grantham"... but my edit doesn't transfer over to the main page when I make it. Could you fix it?--HarryPotterRules1 (talk) 13:12, October 23, 2015 (UTC)
That's what I mean. I've made the edit there... but it doesn't actually show up on the main page at all. --HarryPotterRules1 (talk) 02:43, October 24, 2015 (UTC)
Your advice please Edit
Hello, I just wanted to ask you your opinion of how we should proceed with a possible problem editor. User:Scoutpower1 has made a number of problem edits, most of them to do with them adding appearances that aren't cofirmed and other speculation, as well as little errors. None of it is a massive problem but the worrying/annoying thing is, that they haven't replied to any of the comments that have been left on their talk page. So I'm not sure what to do now. --Amateur Obsessive (talk) 22:40, October 24, 2015 (UTC)
Home Page Issues Edit
The fandom link just added at the top of the home page does not seem to be working, but I do not see anything wrong with the URL. I removed the trailing slash, but that does not seem to be the problem.
Also, the featured article does not reflect the current wording of that article, specifically referring to series 6 episode 1 on PBS in the future tense. Unfortunately I do not see how to fix either problem. Ehj666 (talk) 20:09, January 5, 2016 (UTC)
Upstairs/Downstairs AwardsEdit
Hi there! We you guys planning anything for the end of the show's run next week? Were thinking of running an Upstairs/Downstairs awards. We'd post for submissions next Monday. What do you think? —This unsigned comment is by Alwaysmore2hear (talk • contribs) 10:04, March 2, 2016. Please sign your posts with ~~~~! Whoops! thank you :) Jamie (profile)•(talk)
- I started a thread (Series 6 Upstairs/Downstairs Awards at Downton Abbey wiki) on your Community Central Message Wall, so we can discuss the details more there. I also notified Amateur Obsessive, so they can give feedback also. -- Fandyllic (talk · contr) 2 Mar 2016 10:58 AM Pacific
Scoutpower1 againEdit
Scoutpower1 has made a large number of edits on Sybil Branson's page, enough of which are in error that the whole set should be rolled back to the edit of March 5, 13:20. I was only able to undo two edits, then unable to do any more than that. Ehj666 (talk) 06:09, March 6, 2016 (UTC)
- Thanks for fixing that, and the tip. I wasn't sure that would work due in part to extra things found at the end of the page, such as categories. —This unsigned comment is by Ehj666 (talk • contribs) 12:58, March 7, 2016. Please sign your posts with ~~~~!
Final Upstairs/Downstairs is live!Edit
Hey Fandyllic, Doug from Wikia here. Just stopping by to let you know that the voting round for the last Downton Abbey Upstairs/Downstairs Awards is live! Feel free to promote around the wiki where you see fit
Thanks! TheBlueRogue •(profile)•(talk)•(firstname.lastname@example.com) 21:40, March 21, 2016 (UTC)
- I'll fire up a notice and put it on the main page. -- Fandyllic (talk · contr) 21 Mar 2016 3:10 PM Pacific
Well, this is odd. Have I crossed over into some bizarro universe? :D
I'm working on adding sites to our television footer program. Let me know if I can add Downton Abbey ;) Raylan13 (talk) 19:52, May 13, 2016 (UTC)
Bogus PagesEdit
It looks like three bogus pages have been added, Blake's Channel, Episode 7.1, and Gwynedd. Could an admin please delete these? Thanks. Ehj666 (talk) 17:16, July 2, 2016 (UTC)


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Keynote Speakers
Join engaged financial planning professionals to dive into industry trends and happenings to stay at the forefront of the profession with the following keynote speakers:
Fred Mandell, Ph.D., Ed.M. – Back by Popular Demand!
Fred Mandell returns with cutting-edge research demonstrating how art-based learning changes the brain and accelerates a new kind of thinking. Mandell will lead an intensive breakout session that dives into how a "different kind of conversation" provides new insights and outcomes that leads to deeper personal insights and powerful outcomes. He will be provide attendees with the opportunity to sign-up for one-on-one coaching sessions on Wednesday, more details to follow shortly!
Jeff Belkora, Ph.D.
Jeff Belkora, author of DEAL! Discovery, Engagement, and Leverage for Professionals, will present strategies to help guide clients to good decisions. You'll learn how to discover the client agenda, engage the client in decision support and leverage resources for efficient delivery. Belkora developed this approach to client-centered care while running a support program for patients facing life and death decisions at UCSF Medical Center. He is a faculty member at the UCSF School of Medicine and runs a patient support program at the UCSF Medical Center.
James Clear
James Clear will describe how mastering the art of high performance by embracing the surprising power of small habits can multiply your mental and physical performance 10x. You'll learn what's working now, what always works, and what to avoid if you want to stick to good habits and break bad ones. Clear is an entrepreneur, weightlifter, and travel photographer. He graduated Summa Cum Laude with a degree in Biomechanics from Denison University and also earned my MBA from Ohio State University.
Marc Freedman
Marc Freedman, founder and CEO of Encore.org, will provide examples of how you can help clients turn midlife uncertainty into a midlife opportunity. Freedman is an award-winning social innovator, thought leader and author – one of the nation's leading experts on the longevity revolution and the transformation of retirement. Freedman is the author of four books, including most recently, "The Big Shift: Navigating the New Stage Beyond Midlife." He is a high honors graduate of Swarthmore College, and holds an M.B.A. from the Yale School of Management.
>> Read Marc Freedman's 10 Question interview in the April Journal of Financial Planning
Michele Wucker
Author of The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Respond to the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, Michele Wucker will provide real-world examples of how significant crises can be recognized and countered strategically. She brings three decades of experience as a policy analyst, financial journalist and think tank executive to her distinctive and accessible style of thought leadership, combining highly original thinking with incisive analysis. Wucker holds a BA from Rice University and an MA from Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, where she has been an adjunct associate professor.


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9/28/2016 - 10/28/2016Student Activities Office
10/25/2016The Chadwick | 10545 Perry Highway, Wexford PA
10/25/2016 - 10/26/2016Titan Cafe
View All Events »
View All News »
It is the desire of the Board of Trustees that policy statements adopted by the Board be coded in a Board of Trustees Policy Manual that is generally accessible to the College community and to the general public. The Policy Manual is to be organized into the following categories:
Procedures developed pursuant to policies approved by the Board are to be coded within this model and shall be numerically referenced to the appropriate policy statement(s).
CCBC Main Campus
1 Campus Drive
Monaca, PA 15061
CCBC Aviation Sciences Center
125 Cessna Drive
Beaver Falls, PA 15010
CCBC at Parkway West
7101 Steubenville Pike
Oakdale, PA 15071