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Interesting Times For All Commodities And Investments!! Chapter 29............ 258 commentsJul 25, 2013 7:23 PM
What started out as a small group discussing anything related to investing has grown extremely educational over the last few months.
We have Authors, Financial Advisors, Seasoned investors, Experts in specific fields, and just the average Joe pitching in...
Folks.. we are growing and posters like it. If you are new to investing then this site is for you.
Here is the link to the READING MATERIAL !!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/1998262-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-reading-material
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE PORFOLIO EXERCISE !!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/2054352-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-portfolio-exercise
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE CHAPTER ON CDC, WHO, MACRO AND POLITICAL COMMENTS!!http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/5038891-interesting-times/2070972-interesting-times-for-all-commodities-and-investments-cdc-who-macro-and-political-discussions
I am going to be the first one to admit that I haven't a clue when or if Gold and Silver will ever take off in price. I invested thinking they will though. Additionally I don't see much coverage or articles pertaining to the other commodities. So I started a blog where every commodity, and every investment is on the table for discussion. Even political questions. I only ask that you be courteous!!
Someone posted the difference between being smart, foolish, and a moron. Well I have been all of the above and I will "man up" and admit it! However I came away from those experiences with both battle scars and knowledge.
For years I have been reading basically any day now Gold and Silver will explode. I am by far a gold or silver bug. Yet somehow the can gets kicked down the road and I live to learn another lesson. Then Sprott's ETF'S (NYSEARCA:PSLV) are talked about as being safer then others (NYSEARCA:GLD) and (NYSEARCA:SLV).
With all the QE'S basically not creating any new jobs what will be the consequences in the future?. Will we be "CYPRUSED "? Are we in a serious stock market bubble? Obviously we read daily about these concerns but what about other INVESTMENTS? Here is where most of us are uninformed and relish an education.
Individual stocks are fine to discuss as well. All of us know that commodities should only be a % of your portfolio. I owned (NASDAQ:PSEC) and liked the dividend. Others may not ! So please feel free to entertain your picks and why!
REE'S have been an interest for a few of us over the last couple of years. I had exposure to Lynas (OTCPK:LYSCF). Some posters might have questions about this group as well.
If you disagree with a post please bring proof and display your argument. If you agree with a post, find one interesting, or have questions please feel free to respond. We must remember were all in this together. So if you want to talk politics and how it affects everyday life, fine with me!!
Now if some have an opinion on Copper, Zinc, Palladium, etc. Do not hesitate to post that. Most of us might not understand the post but I am sure we'll be open to learning. Lumber might interest someone and I would like to learn why I should invest in it. PLEASE bracket any symbol as it also allows a reader to click on it and get some data.
My part time job is a college and high school official so I can sit here and referee all day long. I honestly hope that ALL will be professional with their comments. So lets see who comes on board. Looking forward to what can become a nicely knit group of diversified investors.
I have invited a few Authors whose work I admire to bring their expertise to the forum here as. Eric, Hebba, Doug to name a few, in no particular order, will drop in once in a while to voice their opinions. Please feel free to ask your favorite Authors to join in the discussion.
These are highly recommended people that I suggest you follow as well. I have learned a ton from them and find their work both challenging and engaging. Two areas that I hope inspire people who normally don't post to now feel free to do so !!
Now I also feel compelled to encourage the use of the like button. It is human nature that once someone posts and see the like button add up they will feel they made a valid point. Upon that feeling they will post again! So if you do like what someone posted, either a question or an answer PLEASE use it ! It might help our core grow exponentially as well
LURKERS , we are waiting for you to post here too!
We are living in some very INTERESTING TIMES !!
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Additional disclosure: Posting politely Is strongly suggested. Violators will be prosecuted !!Back To Interesting Times' Instablog HomePage »
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.Comments (258)Track new comments
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor@TACK
Interesting Times, contributorBSF
it seems we have a "double standard" here.. I'm not going to get between your arguments with Tack, but here are some facts.
I dont know his reasons for bowing out , but have a feeling that isnt one of them .. Consider the following as one of many examples :
"You have no idea what companies I am invested in.
- I didnt see the memo that said one needed to post their holdings in order to participate in this forum.
- There are a lot of others who have posted here who don't post their holdings.
- Singling me out for your digs is real classy, eh.
- Maybe you can check your ego at the door in the future."
Interesting Times, contributor@FEAR
You seem to like to put people into groups and then proclaim what they stand for. You seem to think anyone who is bearish now is a perpetual bear that has been wrong for years. You are jumping to conclusions without the data needed to support your claims.
I dont short stocks.
Sometimes I will buy some put options or inverse ETF's but only as short term trades in my brokerage acct. I have stated this before so pay more attention while reading.
Contrary to your faulty assertions, I have also mentioned stocks that I have bought or sold or was interested in. And when I did post this info almost no one, (except one or two) showed any interest at all so I stopped doing that.
I have not made any claims of how well I have done investing over the years like some others, including Tack, and this is what IT was referring to. If I claimed I had made 20% per yr for however many years then someone is justified in calling me out on it, but I make no such claims. IT was perfectly justified to single out anyone who made claims of outstanding success to provide some support to those claims. Its not the double standard you seem to think it is.
You believe there will be a correction, so do I.
My bet is on the govt and Fed officials. They caused the 2003 bubble/crash, they caused the 2008 bubble/crash. The 'recovery' you speak of is a joke. Things being slightly better than 2008 does not a recovery make. Doug is absolutely right, it is an illusion. Get out into the real world and see for yourself what kind of recovery is going on. Detroit bankrupt and many more to come, pension funds under-funded left and right, bubbles growing, simultaneous inflation and deflation, work force participation at depression era levels. The Fed/govt policies are good for the financial elite, a disaster for the rest. The wealth gap continues to widen, the ACA comes online next year, ugh, but nevermind, there is no point and going through this again and listing all the reasons.
Interesting Times, contributor@TAMAPAT
Tampat ,
Nothing more nothing less.
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor@FEAR
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor
Tampat, good dissertation above. There are so many issues that are not just upon us, but Japan, Europe, England, China, Argentina, et al.
F& G I do not understand how you can challenge anyone to go short on a certain currency or any trade for that matter. This challenge is so those people can go long or short any stock or product .Can you tell me what you were trying to prove? I mean if I challenged you to short QCom or Apple ,is that fair? Please enlighten me why you needed to present your argument against Doug and Tampat in that form. They are not advocating market timing .Was it just a case of frustration on your part? Sincerely ,Curt
Doug wrote: "
The Keynes lovers gloat at how well we are doing in America. The stock market is not the economy. It's not even the result of the economy. "
IT invited me here as I am a contrarian and right or wrong I post my logic. I agree with you 48 million on food stamps does not look too good until you look beneath the surface. Too many of those people are defrauding the government. They are a part of the underground economy which I'll get too in a minute. Others sell the food stamps or trade them for products food stamps ban like alcohol, drugs, and tobacco. Then there are the millions of illegal immigrants that I favor self deportation over amnesty. Ronald Reagan went the amnesty route and that sent the message to others to keep on coming and eventually they will back door legalize you. Self deportation sends the message that we finally have a meaningful immigration law and are enforcing it. By the way I don't make this stuff up someone I know who is working in the UE tried to pay me money he owed me in food stamps.
So far , I've not heard one single idea presented here to back these statements up.
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ FG & everyone
I agree Curls with it being "Less punchy", I hope that's true. I learn from many different POV's here. Wouldn't want to be on a "Perma Bull or "Perma Bear" site for Gold or Stocks.It takes different views to make it a good place to read and participate. I was frozen out by SA yesterday for some reason,couldn't get on.
Thought for a while the old saying I have used so many times had become a reality. "I wouldn't want to be in any club that would have me as a member"
Economic Analyst, contributorComments (3861) | + Follow Following - UnfollowTAMPAT-
"As a followup question, I would appreciate any opinion or insight into the relative weighting, prioritization, of trends to any of the factors that you identified as significant."
Trying to predict what they will do can be difficult, however, they have shown an inability to do much of anything constructive due to the extreme polarization. So maybe we need to focus on what they won't do as well as what they will do. If one were able to identify and monitor what companies will be effected by a certain piece of legislation then of course that would identify companies to invest in. Interestingly, many times companies that will receive favorable legislation jump in price prior to it being passed as the information leaks out to the special interests or favored people such as company lobbyists and insiders.
Recently more submarines were planned so look at submarine builders, that would be good for NOC and GD. There is a somewhat UTR company called Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) that builds, overhauls and repairs ships for the US Navy and Coast Guard and it has had a good run.
There are other companies one can find with additional research. War will be around long after we are all gone and is a profitable area.
Personal home security companies such as (ADT) might benefit from what I expect to be an increase in social unrest. I consider gun companies like SWHC and RGR to be at risk of govt intervention but tasers are seeing increasing purchases from law enforcement so there is (TASR).
Hope this is close to what you were asking about. This subject is not easy to discuss in a short paragraph.
Economic Analyst, contributorComments (3861) | + Follow Following - UnfollowTAMPAT-
I am the one who has been investing for over 40 years. I do not recall TACK making that statement. My first stock purchase was HCA when I was in high school and the company had only one small hospital across from Centennial Park in Nashville. I did not have much of a stash back then. Only so much can be accumulated mowing lawns at $2 per lawn, hand clipping and sweeping included in that price and working for my Dad during the summers, eventually working my way up to $2 per hour by 1971.
Extreme: I did download and review the paper "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" Are you referring to something else?
SG51: You got the paper I was talking about. You describe very well the behavioral nuances each investor must face when trying to be better than average. I guess that is the reason I like rules based portfolios as a way to manage my emotions.
Extreme: After exploring Mebane's rules strategy, and using a 200 day moving average starting in 1950 with the S & P 500, the investor would have avoided most of the major declines in the S & P 500 while the re-entry point would catch most of the next up move after a lag of course.
SG51: I like your rules. You are correct that the 200 day will occassionally give a false signal so having a sense of where we are in the business cycle can be very beneficial. If the FED has been raising rates or threatening rate hikes I would find a move below the 200 day impending. If the market had been in the tank for quite some time I would find a move above the 200 day quite enticing for new investment. I also usually don't do all on none. I have a range and I will move within that range. Your rule about the market violating the 200 day 5% or more will reduce false signals. I have found moving averages to be beneficial.
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ Extreme
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor"Discussions between Barclays (BCS) and regulators regarding measures the bank will take to bridge a £7B capital shortfall were still ongoing Friday evening, FT says. BCS is widely expected to unveil a series of new measures to help boost its capital levels when it reports earnings on Tuesday. One option reportedly under discussion: contingent convertible bonds ("cocos", affectionately) which automatically convert to equity or, in the case of some issues, are written down in the event certain thresholds (a preset Tier one capital ratio for instance) are breached. The bank may also shrink its balance sheet by reducing derivative and repo transactions"
Interesting Times, contributor
My 90 year mother has a better memory than I do.
The inability to sit on profits is a behavioral problem for many investors. Not many are able to ignore profits to accumulate those ten and twenty baggers that Peter Lynch was so fond of. One way I try to avoid selling so much is to figure the tax consequences. If you consider the tax consequences of a sale your portfolio is reduced each time you make a sale.
1- in the 80s, the markets came out of 15-16 years bear cycle with the Dow stuck at 1,000 all this time
2- also interest rates reached about 20% and a nasty recession
3- unemployment reached 10%-12%
4- inflation reached double digit
5- gold reached a high of $850
RINA: Lynch took the helm of the Magellan Fund in May 1977, which was more than five years before the long term secular bull market started, and remained until May 1990. He did not have the win at his back for five of the 13 years.
I just made it up but to me it means picking indexes instead of stocks and most important being in the right index at the right time. It is a form of relative strength investing.
You have two individuals who invest in four asset classes. Individual A is a better stock and bond picker and outperforms in every class. Individual B is not as good but is good at managing allocations. The results are as follows:
Domestic stocks 15% 12%
Foreign stocks 2% 1%
Bonds -1% -4%
Cash .5% 0%
Domestic stocks 25% 40%
Foreign stocks 25% 20%
Bonds 25% 5%
Cash 25% 35%
Extreme: Most of time asset allocation is the key to long term performance, but the asset allocation can not be divorced from real world events. The clearest example is the impact that inflation had on both stock and bond allocations from about 1966 to mid-1982. Other examples are when one of the markets hit extreme valuation levels.
SG51: I agree. During 2008 I maintained an allocation to stocks between 25 to 35% which caused me to go down 12%. I more than made up that 12% in 2009. We both know it takes a 100% gain to make up a 50% loss. I try to practice Warren Buffett's first and second rules.
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor
Following are some stocks that I should have kept till now:
1- (http://bit.ly/11geSKy) at $15.21 as of today, bought at about $7, decent dividend
2- (http://bit.ly/13jbCME) at $49.11, bought at about $30, reached high of $54 recently, decent dividend
3- (AQUNF.PK) at $6.91, bought for < $4, decent dividend
Rina: Never heard of your #3. I have bought and sold MPW and Plum Creek.
Interesting Times, contributor
Rina: I drink two regular sugar cokes a day and view that consumption as therapeutic. KO has a wide variety of "healthier" soft drinks including the diet and zero calorie versions, and my concerns do not involve that issue.
2012 $2.04 8.5%
2011 $1.88 6.8%
2010 $1.76 7.317%
2009 $1.64 7.89%
2008 $1.52 11.765%
2007 $1.36 9.677%
2006 $1.24 10.71%
2005 $1.12 12%
2004 $1.00 13.6%
2003 $ .88 10%
2002 $ .80 11.1%
2001 $ .72 5.8%
2000 $ .68 6.25%
1999 $ .64
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ SG & Tampat
The current valuation of KO shares are only slightly outside my reasonable valuation range. If the shares moved to about $80 tomorrow, up from Friday's close of $40.64, then you would have a similar valuation as in 1998 which would inevitably cause a 50% or so price correction back to Friday's close.
Interesting Times, contributor"The Fed is likely to keep the full $85B QE program in place when it meets next week, writes Jon Hilsenrath, but on the table should be whether to refine its forward guidance, particularly whether to lower the 6.5% UE rate threshold for tightening policy. At issue is the Fed's desire to calm market worries over an imminent hike in interest rates. In the running for Fed chief, Larry Summers suggests the UE threshold might be too high."
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributor
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ IT
For those who've been watching a while... can this propping up be counted on? My instincts are at odds with the market's moves from the props. But if a prop is going to keep appearing, I might as well bet as though it will. And just keep tight eye on, and stops set.
Interesting Times, contributor@CURLS
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributorThe FOMC will stop QE when they believe the economy has the critical mass to sustain growth (considering the influence of fiscal stimulus). Their signal of choice is Inflation. A rise in core Inflation along with declining UR-3 should be suggesting the natural unemployment rate is near. In this environment the market indices will continue to flourish with all the normal bear/bull corrections...
Interesting Times, contributor
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributorWell, that all depends on Congress. Congress sets policy and the FOMC mitigates around their decisions. 90% of Real GDP (and employment) is determined by the scale of the Deficit. The present Budget CR suggests Q2 baseline GDP of 2.2% will be announced next week. Scheduled 2014 & 2015 cuts may require FOMC to be more accommodative ... less so if infrastructure spending accompanies Debt Ceiling negotiations.
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributorDoug, when Canada did this OECD overhaul in January there was no net change in the numbers albeit some quarters were raised 1.9% and some were downgraded -1.7%. So nobody knows where the American figures will settle for any particular quarter...
Thanks Freddy. Any reason you know of why they changed the GDP caclulation? Could one throw it in the changes to the CPI and Unemployment calculations over the years to make someone or something look better (hide the truth?) or do you see other reasoning? (not being conspiracy oriented as most everyone knows the changes to CPI and Unemployment calculations. Just trying to get your understanding as to why a move was made if you have one.
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributorchained $ changed to 2009 from 2005 & treatment of fixed investments & pensions harmonized
Interesting Times, contributor
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributor
The death of Spain, the collapse of their financial banking system and the ultimate demise of all of Europe may be greatly exaggerated:
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributorI've thought over those devious motives myself many times over the past four years (started with Dubai), but it is difficult to tie in that conspiracy theory to the most media talking heads. Rather, it appears much of cable news is basically mentally bankrupt and trouble "over there" helps them fill the void on their 24/7 mandate so they don't continue to sound like idiots on domestic issues...
Another view of japan may be warranted
Land of Milk and Honey, contributorDoug
Curls: A lot of current data about Japan can be found in a recent Credit Suisse report, a firm that frequently has a less robust growth forecast than others:
Interesting Times, contributorOK FOLKS
Interesting Times, contributor
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Interesting Times, contributor
IT: I will include only what I already own, so I will need to winnow the list down some by excluding a few hundred securities. I am going to go with a 10% allocation to one speculative name, a micro cap Canadian company traded on the Toronto stock exchange. I already own it and would not even consider the possibility of buying $10,000 of that stock. Since I am playing with your pretend money, and I really want that tungsten bar, spray painted gold, I may just turn into a wild and crazy guy.
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributorYup...
Interesting Times, contributor"JPMorgan (JPM -0.8%) is exploring strategic alternatives for its physical commodities business including "a sale, spin off, or strategic partnership." With pressure mounting from Washington and the public eye now focused squarely on Wall Street's role in commodities markets thanks in part to a NY Times piece published last weekend, now is probably as good a time as any to bid the business adieu. The bank "will remain fully committed to its traditional banking activities in the commodity markets."
Interesting Times, contributor
Did anyone read Chuck Carnavale's latest SA article?
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor
IT: I am one of those who is in the $900 per ounce camp.
South, I've written on the Proof sets. FYI...
Doug: I do not own gold and silver in my IRAs. Due to my financial position, I manage my IRAs with capital preservation and income generation as my primary goals. That leads me to a wide variety of income producing securities.
Interesting Times, contributor
At the last P.M. fix before the Fed announced QE (3/18/2009), the P.M. London fix was $893.25:
Interesting Times, contributor
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Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ SG
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ CoinsK
Curls: Below $900 is when I will write a check. That would easily be the highest price that I have ever paid for an ounce by about $300 per ounce. If you go back to the average price in 2007, and adjust for inflation, you would not come close to $900.
Interesting Times, contributor
IT: I may be able to use of my Willie Mays cards in the event the prediction made by Yoni Jacobs, author of "Gold Bubble: Profiting From Gold's Impending Collapse", is prescient with his $700 prediction, discussed in Brad's Zigler's SA article:
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ SG
Interesting Times, contributor
Interesting Times, contributor
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IT: I have a quiz for all of the gold bugs. You may have not have seen it yet.
Interesting Times, contributor@SOUTH
Interesting Times, contributor
IT: Being the frugal sort, I only buy clothes that look great coming out of the dryer, no ironing needed, so there is no need to take anything to the cleaners.
My collection ranges from the mid 1950's to the early'70's but most of them are from the early mid '60's. I used money from my paper route to buy them. Few of mine are mint, years ago I investigated the value and I think the most valuable one I have is a rookie Curt Flood but I havent paid any attention to them for years.
Most of them were used for that cool clicking sound in bike wheels.
Interesting Times, contributorGUYS
U very well could have that opportunity to buy Gold under 1,000, Then it maybe quite a long wait to see any appreciation.. I realize u have a LT view of your investments, so that shouldn't be an issue..
Interesting Times, contributor@FEAR
Interesting Times, contributor
IT & Doug,
u can track the gold short position here
Doug you are invited also..
Interesting Times, contributor@FEAR
Here is parabolic attached to an article people may want to give some thought to:
Interesting Times, contributor@FEAR
F&G, I posted my article on gold here and my present thoughts for all to see. Perhaps you missed it. I called a short term top and a possible tests of the lows and it was pretty timely, thank you. I then posted I played DUST a couple times for quick profits (could have had more, but am trying to write a book for those that are not your clients because obviously they are doing just fine).
Tampat, thanks....thought you would enjoy Martenson's speech here; http://bit.ly/13cOhRv
I buy Gold regardless of price .I buy it at a discount. Dental Gold ,Jewelry etc. Then I sell it when it spikes. A good deal if you can get it. BTW,why don't you rag on gas and oil as well once in a while?Because at least with Gold it's money, and a person can store their savings with it. After all that's what made America great,SAVING money. (TIC)
Doug, the point is trading is trading whether it's paper or electronics or whatever. and F& G knows it. It's fundamental to all of us here. For someone to offer some erroneous premise to someone else because they are in Gold as opposed to wheat(or whatever), is not a genuine argument in my opinion. The one thing that I like most about precious metals as far as trading in it,is that I can save what I want for later , because it is money.If someone continually doesn't get that,then no explanation will suffice for that person.
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ CoinsK
The "short" trade is here from July 22
Thanks F& G .I like to short silver when it goes extremely high with (ZSL) .I can buy all the physical I want and use the Proshares Ultrashort as a hedge.
The thing is, and to ....... Curls ......as well, the thing is there are many opportunities for trading ,I just found precious metals as a commodity to be the easiest to understand for me.And since it's went down this year it seems to give bashers of Gold & Silver a royal opportunity to challenge everyone who has some .It's NOT a zero sum game ,some of us have found ways to make a profit in all types of markets ,Bear or Bull. I hope that each of us does well and can share some of the reasons for their success. I don't think Doug has to do bad for F&G to do well. And vice versa. It does seem to become a spitting contest and people take offense to other's philosophy and opinions. I will be in stocks ,mutual funds,and precious metals for the forseeable future. There now , , everyone can be offended ,LOL
I will say my savings are not in CD accounts at a bank. I also buy extra cans of soup once in a while. :)
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ CoinsK
Coins: Gold and silver prices can go up with stocks. The gold bull market started around January 2002 when the price was near $280 and was trading near $380 in May 2004.
SG ,tou know what I told you about selling Gold @ $1900, and Silver at 26 X face (About $40 an Oz) You did REAL good. The point I would like for you great stock investors to understand is that I do that for a living. And when you do that well try to imagine me doing that well or maybe a little better. So I can't get on board of the " Precious metals is bad" Train . And % wise I have about a 3rd of my retirement money in stocks. I hope to sell more of that and pay for more of my real estate holdings. Iown my shop and a nice lot with a springfed creek with no liens on either. My home which appraises at $225 K is 1/2 paid for. Another all time high in Stocks after the next crash and it will be paid in full hopefully between Stocks and Gold sells .That's my strategy. And my Gold & Silver holdings are my equivalent of CASH savings. But like I told Curls earlier.I don't put money in CD's for my savings,it's paper that is a non-performing asset. So YES is the short answer for you selling SG. I'm glad for you.
CoinsK: The Fed's Jihad Against the Saving Class has cost me plenty since I always maintain a high cash allocation as part of my dynamic asset allocation, as well as a safety cushion and pacifier for the Old Geezer, and that sallocation earns zero now.
Interesting Times, contributorFor all those thinking were hitting on all cylinders !!
Interesting Times, contributor
Re: PMs
Interesting Times, contributor@WIND
Interesting Times, contributor
Land of Milk and Honey, contributorThis assessment is both bull, but with bear elements incorporated. It struck me as good summary & prediction of near & slightly farther out:
After last two QE endings, there was a downturn, but then things were recovering. Just slower than Fed desired so they started up QE again. Any reason you think this time after a downturn (which is a supportable point), things won't level off & recover for a while? (My personal concern is after a while, however long that is, then the economy will start to pay... and down will come again.)
Interesting Times, contributorCURLS
No wait, I forgot, the markets aren't manipulated.
Interesting Times, contributor
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ IT
Interesting Times, contributor@CURLS
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ IT
I would urge everyone to look at the historical prices of gold since1/1/1975. That information is available at Kitco.
South, easy to pick tops and bottoms, but you have to look at the situation involved too. Volcker simply made the dollars more attractive by raising rates during an inflationary episode. Bernanke can not possibly do that today.
The Morningstar Director of Economic Analysis, Robert Johnson, published today an article that leans bearish on the U.S. economy. He is predicting that the first estimate for 2nd quarter GDP will be .5% or less and will surprise the market. He notes that the consensus estimate is currently real GDP growth of 1%. The report will be released on 7/31.
Interesting Times, contributor
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributor
Land of Milk and Honey, contributor@ Freddy
Interesting Times, contributor
Freddy Hutter, TrendLines R..., contributor
Interesting Times, contributor
Stocks here on SA are maligned?
I dont think so.
Isn't this primarily a stock site?
There are those who think stocks will rise, those who think they will fall, but its still all about stocks. I dont think its stocks that are maligned, even from those who have a bearish bias. I think there are a lot more positive articles on stocks than negative.
Look at this blog as a microcosm, there are many more bullish stock investors who like stocks than there are bears or stock maligners.
Your analysis of its performance in the 70's, 80's, 90's are correct but I question the relevance.
It isn't solvable.
It would take a stack of $1000 bills 48 miles high to equal just $1 trillion. Now multiply that by 100.
The debt can never be repaid.
However, I'm willing to take the chance that during the panic of the transition from the old system to a new one that gold will, for a time, be an asset that many will want out of good old fashioned fear and because of its multi-thousand year history as a store of value.


text:
Nick Saban told Alabama fans he had never coached a more determined or dedicated team than the one that just polished off its second national championship in three years. And the clincher was praiseworthy, too.
"I've never seen a more dominant performance than what they did in the national championship game against LSU," Saban said to a roar from the estimated 32,000 fans filling one side of Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday.
The Crimson Tide celebrated the title in the same fashion it did Saban's first with the Tide two years ago, nearly two weeks after that 21-0 victory over LSU. The coaches and players crowded onto a stage set up at midfield while highlights played on the videoboards and left tackle Barrett Jones and departing stars like Trent Richardson, Dont'a Hightower and Mark Barron spoke after winning what the school counts as the program's 14th national title.
The tone was a little different. At the same event two years ago, Saban said it was the beginning, not the end.
"A couple of weeks ago in New Orleans, the man proved he knew what he was talking about," University President Robert E. Witt said.
Saban has continued to stock up with blue-chip prospects and is lining up what recruiting services are touting as the nation's top class for 2012. Now, the question changes: Is it the beginning, the middle or the end?
"I say the beginning," linebacker Nico Johnson said. "We're still going to stay focused and Coach does a good job at what he does to keep us levelheaded. We're chasing 15. Already, we're chasing it."
The Tide projects as a potential top-five team again next season, but the losses are heavy. Richardson, Hightower, Barron and fellow All-Americans Dre Kirkpatrick and Courtney Upshaw are gone, among others.
They did leave in style, though, with the second title of their careers. Saban called that accomplishment "pretty damn special" and Richardson described as incredible.
"Some dreams aren't even that big, but when stuff like that happens it's incredible," said the Heisman Trophy finalist, who is skipping his senior season and still seeking an agent and place to train. "That tells you about the program we have here and the kind of program we built here, and we're still building. We're not done yet. The tradition here, 'Bama is always going to be good. That's just how we work, and you're going to get the best coaching that you're going to get is right here in Alabama in Tuscaloosa."
This championship season came after a deadly tornado ripped through the town and Alabama, and offensive lineman Aaron Douglas died from a drug overdose.
"We needed this here and we're glad to bring it back to Tuscaloosa, and try and bring hope and faith back to our town," Richardson said.
The fans showed their appreciation again on Saturday, lining up hours before the event started with the first 1,000 getting plumb sideline spots.
Players dumped a confetti-filled jug on Saban afterward, and fireworks and confetti were launched around the stage.
One of those early arriving fans, Wayne Holloway, got to the stadium nearly three hours early to make sure he and grandson Liam Shoemaker, 7, got a spot on the sideline. Plenty beat him into line to celebrate a team that finished second in the Western Division after a regular-season loss to LSU.
"It's hard to say they're just better than any team Bama's ever had, but to do a shutout," Holloway, a Tuscaloosa paint contractor, said. "That was a monumental game because Alabama didn't win the Western Division, didn't win the Southeastern Conference championship but had to play their way back into it.
"Then to beat one of your arch rivals, that made it very special."
He has a Crimson "A" tattooed on his right arm commemorating the 1992 title team and a crimson elephant on his left for '09.
"I haven't made up my mind this year," Holloway said.

subset: commoncrawl


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Tallinna Vesi Challenges Price Cuts in Court
The latest move in the fierce legal battle between the capital's water utility, Tallinna Vesi, and the Competition Authority over pricing came on November 9 when the company opened a court case against the authority's mandated price cuts.
Tallinna Vesi is seeking to overturn an order, issued by the Competition Authority last month, demanding that it either submit a proposal by November 14 to cut its service prices or have all current prices unilaterally lowered by 29 percent.
When taking its challenge to the Tallinn Administrative Court, the company also filed a motion to block the order until the case is decided.
Tallinna Vesi's legal challenge comes as no surprise, as immediately after the regulator's demand was issued on October 10, the company had said that it would fight it in court.
Friction between the two sides began last November, when the Competition Authority first refused to approve Tallinna Vesi's proposed 3.5 percent price hike, saying that the company's application did not conform to the requirements of the Public Water Supply and Sewerage Act.
In May, it turned down the request again, citing differing opinions on what a reasonable profit for the monopoly water supplier would be. The company took the regulator to court over the refusal the following month.
Tallinna Vesi has long been criticized, including by the Chancellor of Justice, for its profit margins. The monopoly water supplier's profit margin rose from 42.8 percent last year to 64.4 percent this year. The Competition Authority has been questioning the legality of the Tallinna Vesi's pricing policies, as well as the terms under which the company was privatized in 2001.
For its part, Tallinna Vesi has maintained that its policies have conformed to the terms of its privatization agreement, and that the authority's blocking the 3.5 percent rise constitute a breach of that contract.
Steve Roman


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The mighty Treaty Oak is a Texas landmark not far removed from our Texas Capitol. It is here that I begin a small story of how this famous tree and the criminal act of one man caused a gavel made from the wood of this famous tree, to open the proceedings today of the Texas House of Representatives Committee on Criminal Jurisprudence.
The Treaty Oak in the City of Austin has a long and colorful history:
"A Native American legend holds that the Council Oaks were a location for the launching of war and peace parties. Legends also hold that women of the Tejas Tribe would drink a tea made from honey and the acorns of the oaks to ensure the safety of warriors in battle.
According to popular local folklore and the inscription on the plaque at the tree's base, in the 1830s, Stephen F. Austin, the leader of the Austin Colony, met local Native Americans in the grove to negotiate and sign Texas' first boundary treaty after two children and a local judge had been killed in raids. No historical documentation exists to support this event actually taking place. Folklore also holds that Sam Houston rested beneath the Treaty Oak after his expulsion from the Governor's office at the start of Texas' involvement in the American Civil War."
Okay, we know the oak has a great history. Now what about the criminal act that brought about a series of events that brought the oak gavel to be formed from the historical tree. In 1989, in an act of deliberate vandalism, an individual by the name of Paul Cullen, was apprehended after bragging about poisoning the tree. The tree was poisoned with the powerful hardwood-herbicide, Velpar. Lab tests showed the quantity of herbicide used would have been sufficient to kill 100 trees. Cullen was convicted of felony criminal mischief and sentenced to serve nine years in prison.
Although arborists expected the tree to die, the Treaty Oak survived as the result of intensive efforts to save the tree. Although it survives, almost two-thirds of the tree died and more than half of its crown had to be pruned. As is the long historical custom, when a historical tree falls they are sometimes transformed into gavel-formed relics.
Because of the history and the symbolism contained in the wood of this mighty tree, I purchased a gavel created from one of the branches of the "Treaty Oak" and used the new gavel to open tonight's hearing in the House Criminal Jurisprudence Committee. It somehow seems fitting that this gavel which was formed in response to a criminal act committed against it now assists in controlling the very criminal activity that brought violence to this beautiful and living monument.
Today Texans have long seen the Treaty Oak as a symbol of strength and endurance. Perhaps, tonight we might add jurisprudence.


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Minnechaug Regional sophomore Wiktor Karpinski finished second in the 200 yard freestyle at the Division I state championships Friday night at Harvard University.
The reigning Western Massachusetts champion finished in 1 minute, 45.24 seconds. Andover's Paul Hunter won in 1:41.98.
"Wiktor swam a great race, he finished second in the state,'' Minnechaug coach Eric Mandell said. "He swam his own race. He didn't go out and chase (winner Paul) Hunter (of Andover). He trained for a 1:45 and did that in back to back races. He's a smart racer and he was on his Western Mass. time to the hundredth of a second.''


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The past week in women's wrestling has been an eventful one, at least on the WWE side of things.
With WrestleMania only two weeks away, four Divas cashed their tickets to the big show while two others put aside their once-strong friendship and did battle in two matches.
Over on Impact Wrestling, it was Open Fight Night and new Knockout Taryn Terrell knew exactly who she wanted to get her hands on.
On the news front, 2013 Hall of Fame inductee Trish Stratus revealed who she wants to induct her, while a top WWE Superstar praised Naomi's performance on Wednesday night's Main Event.
All of this plus this week's Diva Digest power rankings. Which Diva or Knockout tops this week's list. Could Terrell repeat at No. 1 or would another woman, or women, boot her from the top spot?
Find out inside!


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Packwood House to host Randy and Josey Brendle
LEWISBURG – Packwood House Museum will host Randy and Josey Brendle during Lewisburg's Festival of the Arts on Saturday.
The Brendles will have a display of antique musical instruments, provide free children's activities and will perform traditional folk music.
The Brendles will be located under a tent on the grass lot next to the Packwood House Museum Tour Center, 15 N. Water St.
The Brendles, also known as Echoing Heart Productions, of Benton, specialize in hands-on programs for children and families that "combine history, music, art, legend – and down-to-earth skills for living."
They are historic interpreters at the Hay Creek Historic Fall Festival, the Historic Joanna Furnace near Morgantown and have performed at Danville's Iron Heritage Festival and the Pennsylvania German Folk Festival in Kutztown. They also are members of the National Association of Interpretation and have presented their Homemade Instrument Making workshop at the National Convention.
Funding for the program has been provided by a grant from the Lindig Lewisburg Foundation Fund at the First Community Foundation Partnership of Pennsylvania. For more information on the program, or on the Packwood House Museum, call 570-524-0323 or visit www.packwoodhousemuseum.com.


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Home > Books & DVDs > DVDs > Hyper > Weapons Training with Sami Suddeth > Write/Read Weapons Training with Sami Suddeth Reviews!
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|Weapons Training with Sami Suddeth
Hyper Pro Sami Suddeth teaches you what it takes to become a martial arts champion and shows you important tips for executing today's most exciting martial arts techniques.
Kick back with Sami as she tells you hrt secrets to training, competitions and having fun. She also shows you tips for throwing some cool kicks and combinations.
- Sami teaches you how to perfectly throw these kicks and combos like a pro.
- High Round Kick, Shuffle Axe Kick, Spin Hook Kick, Jump Outside.
- Allusion, Split Kick, Sh...
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In 2005, as Arturo Gatti prepared for the biggest fight of his career -- a WBC super lightweight title bout against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Atlantic City -- The Star-Ledger got an intimate glimpse of the fighter who captured the hearts of New Jersey boxing enthusiasts.
As the challenger for his title crashes his news conference, boxer Arturo Gatti shows irritation, and HBO licks its lips.
NEW YORK -- Arturo "Thunder" Gatti is late.
The news conference to kick off the countdown to Gatti vs. Floyd "Pretty Boy" Mayweather Jr., the biggest fight of the year, is scheduled to begin at 11 sharp. That was 45 minutes ago.
Everybody in the Gatti camp is on edge. It's Wednesday, just three days before fight night, and the anticipation is electric. Tickets -- all 12,000 -- sold out two months ago in less than two days. The pay-per-view buys are starting to pile up. The press is everywhere. Billboards in New York, North Jersey and along the Atlantic City Expressway promise, "Thunder and Lightning -- The Storm is Coming."
The Copacabana in Midtown Manhattan is dressed in fake palm trees. Latin music bounces off the nightclub's pink walls. A hundred people, maybe more, mill around -- sportswriters, TV crews from around the world, Gatti's small circle of friends -- waiting for the champion.
Gatti's trainer, James "Buddy" McGirt, stands at the buffet table, heaping his plate with cheese tortellini in cream sauce. Cool in his Jason Kidd jersey and glittery sunglasses, he fields the usual questions from a clutch of reporters.
So who's gonna win, Buddy? "We are, baby."
How you gonna do it, Buddy? "Tune in Saturday night."
What about Mayweather's fast hands?
"What else has he got?"
IN HIS CORNER: A three-part series on boxer Arturo Gatti
Part 1: In His Corner
Part 2: Edge of the Storm
Part 3: Gatti-town, U.S.A.
While McGirt and the rest of the people inside the Copa are content to eat, drink and wait around for the guy from Hoboken with "Warrior" tattooed across his six-pack abs, the rest of Gatti's people, standing outside, are becoming more agitated by the minute.
They want to get Gatti in and out before Mayweather arrives. The 28-year-old showboat from Las Vegas is scheduled to appear at the Copa for his own news conference at 1:30.
There's bad blood between the two fighters. Not fight-hype bad blood. "Real bad blood," said Kathy Duva, the CEO of Main Events, Gatti's promoter and one of the few women in the male-dominated sport of boxing.
Mayweather has been trash-talking about the 33-year-old Gatti since the matchup was announced in March, calling him a C-rate club fighter, even making fun of his boxing style. Friends say he's gotten under Gatti's skin.
Duva says she shudders to think what would happen if the fighters came face to face today. And Gatti has said repeatedly he doesn't want Mayweather to see him before they step into the ring tomorrow night.
"So why's he late?" asks an agitated Donald Tremblay, who works for Main Events, as he waits impatiently on the Copa's front steps.
"Because he's a fighter, and fighters have no conception of time -- or they don't care," Tremblay says, answering his own question.
Gatti's manager, Pat Lynch, paces up and down the sidewalk, talking on his cell phone. Lynch finally puts the phone back in his pocket. "He's two blocks away, on 36th Street," he says, taking a deep breath.
At 12:15, a white stretch limousine pulls up. Gatti steps out, followed by Teddy Cruz, his conditioner.
Gatti doesn't want to be here. He's thin, having lost 21 pounds with four pounds to go before the Friday night weigh-in, when the scale must read 140. He's starving: He hasn't eaten anything other than chicken and lettuce for weeks. He's irritable for about a million other reasons. He hates TV interviews, his mother wants to take a bus to the fight from Montreal instead of fly. ...
"He just wants to fight," says McGirt. "He was ready to fight last Saturday night."
McGirt's job now is to speak for Gatti and protect him from distractions. But nobody can stop what is about to happen.
Gatti slips into a side door, begrudgingly takes a moment to do an interview for Japanese television, then takes his seat at the podium with his team.
The news conference begins with the usual natter from the promoters. It's going to be a great fight between two great fighters ... the best thing since Ali-Frazier ... sure to be a pay-per-view blockbuster for HBO.
Then the double doors to the banquet hall are thrown open and Mayweather, surrounded by a posse of a dozen men in Mayweather Team jackets, dances in.
The storm has come early.
Mayweather struts past the podium, yelling and raising his index finger. I'm number one.
"You're a bum!" he shouts, never looking at Gatti. "Get outta here, I'm taking over!"
A pack of cameramen turns toward the ranting fighter and chases him as he skips and jumps around the room. Mayweather runs to the podium, lifts his shirt, and pounds on his washboard stomach, five feet from where Gatti is sitting. He lunges in front of his own promoter, Bob Arum, grabs his name card from a stack, places it on the podium, sits down, jumps up, runs to the buffet table and announces: "I'm going to eat! I'm really hungry. I made weight three weeks ago."
Gatti looks at Kathy Duva. "How could you let this happen to me?" he says.
"Don't get caught up in this," Lynch whispers.
McGirt leans in.
"What do you want to do, champ?"
Gatti fires back: "I want to say my piece and leave."
With Mayweather still shouting and bounding around the room, Gatti stands, smiles and calmly thanks the media for coming. Thanks God. Thanks his family. Thanks Lynch, his trusted manager, and McGirt.
"And Mayweather ..." he says, as the room grows quiet.
"I'm knocking you the -- out on Saturday night."
Then he walks off the dais, followed by Lynch and McGirt, and out the door. But before he climbs back into his limo, he turns to a woman who had been inside.
"I'm sorry for my bad language," he says.
Arturo Gatti is a man of few words. Fluent in Italian (spoken in his home) and French (he grew up in Montreal), he is self- conscious about his English even though it is somewhere between passable and perfect. He picked it up only after he moved to New Jersey in 1990.
He says his lack of education bothers him a little and he wishes he had finished high school and gone to college. Instead he chose to become a professional fighter.
The best day of his life was when he won his first world title by beating Tracy Patterson in 1995.
Gatti says he wants to win this fight for himself -- more than anything, he wants to be acknowledged not just as a fighter with a heart, but one of the greats.
"Because boxing is who I am," he says. "I came to realize that later in my life."
He says he's willing to die in the ring, and at times it looks as if he might. He cuts easily and bleeds hard. Before he teamed up with McGirt, trips to the hospital for stitches were part of his postfight ritual. But for someone who lost five times before McGirt helped rescue his career, being cut or bruised is not the worst part of defeat.
"I really feel like I'm disappointing the people who care about me," he says. "And that hurts me to think they're disappointed."
People say Gatti is boxing's most exciting fighter, and Mayweather is the best.
Gatti has proven courage.
Mayweather has lineage -- he is an undefeated prodigy from a family of champions.
Gatti has won 39 fights and lost six, and has knocked out 30 men.
Mayweather is 33-0, with 22 knockouts.
"It doesn't get any better than this fight," says Micky Ward, the retired Irish brawler whose three fights with Gatti cemented Gatti's reputation as a warrior.
They say styles make fights, but so do personalities.
The difference between the two fighters couldn't have been clearer than at Wednesday's news conference. It's what HBO is counting on to sell the fight, which is for Gatti's World Boxing Council super lightweight title.
Good guy versus bad guy.
"To get them together is a dream matchup," said Mark Taffet, senior vice president of HBO Sports.
HBO is hoping for a pay-per-view bonanza. Heavyweights usually draw the most viewers: The Lennox Lewis-Mike Tyson fight in 2002 broke the pay-per-view record with 1.98 million sales. For non-heavyweight bouts, Oscar De La Hoya-Felix Trinidad in 1999 brought in a record 1.4 million viewers.
Gatti-Mayweather could reach 700,000 or higher, Taffet said.
"Sometimes you get a match that catches on and captures the public's imagination," he said.
"We're hoping the personalities of these two fighters will do that."
Gatti doesn't need help drawing a crowd in Atlantic City. His last five fights in Boardwalk Hall sold out, and he has single-handedly revived boxing there.
In the 1970s and '80s, Atlantic City was a center of boxing rivaling Las Vegas, said Ken Condon, the president of Bally's.
But Boardwalk Hall underwent two years of renovations, and as casino gambling spread into neighboring states, boxing was no longer a draw in the resort.
"Connecticut and other gambling venues increased their boxing events, so we couldn't compete with Las Vegas anymore," Condon said.
Then came Gatti.
"He is the man who's keeping boxing alive in Atlantic City," Condon said. "He's had his ups and downs. Now he's at the peak of his career, and the support is overwhelming."
Hotel rooms in Atlantic City are sold out this week, Condon said. People strolling along the Boardwalk frequently stop in front of one of the Gatti-Mayweather signs, pointing and talking about the most anticipated boxing match in Atlantic City since Tyson-Michael Spinks in 1988.
The chatter in the beach bars is Gatti. Gatti. Gatti.
Bellhops, waitresses and valets are gleefully anticipating a windfall in tips this weekend.
"I have been working here since 1981, and out of any event here, Gatti draws more people to Atlantic City," said Robert Beck, the door captain at Bally's Park Place Hotel Casino. "We root for Gatti to come here. It draws energy to the city."
"Oh yeah, he bring 'em in," said Teddy Lovelace, who pushes a rolling cart on the Boardwalk.
On Wednesday night, Gatti's boxing gloves for his final days of training were delivered to Caesars, his hotel. They arrived in a box labeled "Everlast."
"Mr. Gatti's, no doubt?" the bellhop asked the man carrying the box.
"Um hmmm."
"We love Mr. Gatti here. We want him to win."


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You should be asking these questions to someone that knows ALL of the details of your personal situation.
Generally speaking to sell a property (transfer the title), there cannot be any liens. IMHO you need to pay the HOA fees, they are an obligation.
Property taxes, same thing. Unpaid taxes are required to be paid at transfer of title. That means that the unpaid property taxes will need to be paid by the lender (another cost they will have to incur).
Good questions, ask the person helping you with the short sale. If you need to talk with someone and need a referral to a short sale expert, I can probably help you, just contact me via my profile.
Good luck.
You shoud discuss this with the agent or broker representing you in the transaction
As long as you own the property, you are responsible for teh payment of taxes and HOA fees. If you don't pay you property taxes, they woould be in default and after a specific number of years, the tax man can foreclose. Something simnilar with HOA dues, if you don't pay them, the hOA can file a lien against the property and at some point may be able to foreclose as well. In both cases, you are probubly looking at several years for a foreclosure action.
In a Short Sale (really a short payoff) the monies to clear any back taxes or HOA dues are paid out of the deal. In that case it would not be an out of pocket cost to you. It could be possible that you might have to pay something if the bank refuses because the net on the deal is too low. That does not happen very often, usually they either accept the deal or not.
Jay Gedanken
Broker Associate
PineappleHut Realty


text:
Venous Stasis
Foot & Ankle Information Sites:
FootPhysicians.com: An excellent web site run by the American College of Foot & Ankle Surgeons for patients. There are pod casts on various foot problems as well as other useful information. Dr. Mary Crawford was the first female president of this organization in March 2009.
Clinical Practice Guidelines: From American College of Foot & Ankle Surgeons on bunions, flatfoot, and diabetic foot. Technical language is used but treatment pathways are outlines and documents are well illustrated.
Textbook of Hallux Valgus and Forefoot Surgery: This is a 500 page textbook on foot surgery that is available on line on PDF files. This has technical language but can provide some useful insights to bunion and other forefoot surgery.
What Our Patients SAY!
Local Shoe Store Resources:
Medical Supply:
Coming soon
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Hospital Affiliations:
Local Lodging and Accomodations:
Venous stasis is a loss of proper function in the leg veins that normally carry blood back toward the heart. This may occur following injury to the veins, which may lead to blood clots in the superficial veins (known as superficial phlebitis) or blood clots in the deep veins (known as deep venous thrombosis).
Individuals with this condition usually exhibit swelling of the legs and ankles. The superficial veins in the legs may be varicose, causing the veins to be enlarged and appear as a cord or a bunch of grapes. Patients often complain of a feeling of fullness, aching, or tiredness in their legs. These symptoms worsen with standing, and are relieved when the legs are elevated. As the condition progresses the blood continues to collect in the feet, ankles, and legs.
Rest, elevation, and compression stockings are the most common forms of treatment.


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"Sexuality education helps pupils develop the social skills to avoid risk-taking."
Dr Kai Haldre, M.D, a gynaecologist, directed the Estonian Family Planning Association (FPA) from its establishment in 1994 to 2001, then established the FPA Sexual Health Clinic where she works today. She is a founding member of the Estonian Academic Society for Sexology and co-author of the recent UNESCO study on the cost and cost-effectiveness of school-based sexuality éducation programmes.
How long has sexuality education been on the curriculum in Estonia?
I would say 1996 was an important year, when the human and civil studies curriculum, which integrated sexuality related topics, was introduced as a mandatory subject. Later, in 2002, the curriculum was renamed human studies, where sexuality-related topics take 18% of the programme today. The implementation is the responsibility of the Ministry of Education and Science, local governments and schools.
What topics are covered?
A great many! SE includes both specific topics (such as contraception and puberty) and more general topics (such as negotiation skills and conflict solving). It aims to develop a holistic personality, general human values and social competence.
Personal and social education is the basis for several other content areas (general health education, drug education), because it helps pupils develop the social skills necessary to avoid risk-taking in all these areas.
How is SE taught?
Human studies can be taught by teachers from various backgrounds. Pupils are expected to be active in the learning process. Varied teaching methods are encouraged: discussion, role play, group work, brainstorming, etc. Teachers help the pupils to integrate their knowledge in real-life situations. External specialists (chiefly from youth counselling centres) also play an important role: whenever possible students make a visit to a youth-counselling centre (there are 20 of them in Estonia) and have at least one lesson there. I must stress here that the SE programme is closely linked to youth-friendly, sexual health service delivery.
Could you describe the improvements in youth sexual health indicators in Estonia over the past two decades?
There have been unprecedented reductions in sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV infection rates, but also sizeable downward trends in abortion and teenage birth rates, because of sharp increases in condom and contraceptive use among young people.
The abortion and fertility rates (ie the number of unintended pregnancies) among 15– to 19-year-olds declined by 61% and 59% respectively between 1992 and 2009. Further, the annual number of registered new HIV cases among 15- to 19-year-olds declined from 560 in 2001 to just 25 in 2009 (a more than 95% decrease).
Overall, we were able to calculate that between 2001 and 2009 (when the effect of school-based SE could have been expected), an estimated 13,490 adverse health events (unintended pregnancies, STIs and HIV) have been averted, including 1,970 HIV infections.
As seen in the recent UNESCO study on the cost and cost-effectiveness of school-based sexuality education, the Estonian SE programme is a great example of a fully scaled up, integrated programme with a relatively low cost. This may interest other countries. Why is SE in Estonia so cost-effective?
The cost per completed curriculum of US$32.90 is relatively low in comparison to that of SE programmes in other countries studied. The main reason is that it is an integrated, intra-curricular component of the Estonian basic school curriculum. This has several advantages. Firstly, it is implemented on a large scale, reaching 28,000 students in 2009.
Secondly, because of its integrated nature, the programme covers a high proportion of students per school, and as such reduces costs per student of school-level activities, such as teachers' salaries.
Thirdly, cost per student may also be fairly low because of the relatively small number of lessons (some 24 hours over the course of three years) attributed to sexuality-related topics.
Since salary costs are already a regular expense of the Ministry of Education, the budgetary outlay for this programme equals US$8.39 per learner completing the curriculum. As a comparison, Estonia spent US$4,680 per learner on secondary education as a whole in 2009. SE thus represents only 0.2% of current expenditure per secondary-school student.
The Estonia SE programme can be considered cost saving if 4% or more of observed reductions in HIV infections are attributed to it. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses demonstrate that the impact is likely to be much higher. I can therefore confidently state that the SE programme in Estonia has been a cost-saving intervention.
<- Back to: Education


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Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio is one of the voters in the poll, and he said Friday he does his best he can in ranking the right teams.
"I sit with our operations guy, and we go through each of the teams," Dantonio said. "We do the very best that we can, but I think all that these polls are a bit premature right now, but it's part of the deal so we just vote 'em up."
The poll has been in the spotlight recently after Southern California coach Lane Kiffin relinquished his vote following a disagreement over whether or not he had misrepresented to the media his choice of the Trojans as the top team.
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott supported Kiffin and spoke of a "conflict of interest" with coaches voting in a poll that helps determine the national champion. In a Los Angeles radio interview, he said, "I'm not surprised Lane didn't want to be part of it anymore. I don't think any coaches should be in that position, and they won't be, starting in 2014."
The other randomly-selected Big Ten coaches to vote in the poll are Michigan's Brady Hoke, Illinois' Tim Beckman, Wisconsin's Bret Bielema, Nebraska's Bo Pelini and Indiana's Kevin Wilson.
Ohio State and Penn State are barred from receiving votes while under major NCAA sanctions.
Email Diamond Leung at firstname.lastname@example.com and follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/diamond83.


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Hi, welcome to Supernatural Wiki! Thanks for your edit to the Dean and John page. Please leave a message on my talk page if I can help with anything! RaghavD (talk) 12:19, July 26, 2013 (UTC)
Why are you adding more images of actors? I see that you've been doing the same on other Wikis as well. We already have enough pics on the site. Just categorise them accordingly. Please refrain from adding more pics. If you do want to work with images, categorise these, if you will. Thanks! RaghavD Heck yes, I'm so ODD!! 09:46, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
- You're right. These pictures are really much even for me. I created a category and assigned a lot of images. I believe that people are well able to create categories based on these sections to place the picture. They are quite capable of doing it as well as I do, if you follow them and help them.
Supernatural MagazineEdit
Could you re- write the article of Supernatural Magazine? Because it has been copied and pasted from Super-Wiki. You can't do that under copy right laws. Atleast change the wording. We really don't want a message from the admins of that wiki asking us to take down this page. And please try to reply to people's messages. :) RaghavD Heck yes, I'm so ODD!! 16:32, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
- Ah, well ... If that is not the case, in its sole discretion, change, or delete. Sorry, but I really can not do everything herself. Over all not follow ...
Are you saying that you did not understand my message? RaghavD Heck yes, I'm so ODD!! 16:39, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
- No, I realized ... I just do not know what else can be changed in this article ...
- Ok. I'll do it. Just remember that we cannot copy content from any websites. RaghavD Heck yes, I'm so ODD!! 16:42, August 21, 2013 (UTC)


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Not so hot
"We had an interesting process step that required a specific time and temperature profile," reports our GMP Agent-in-Place. "To be sure that all parts of the liquid material met this profile, we used several thermocouples and fixed them in place in the process vessel. The production process had not been fine-tuned yet, so the yields were all over the map. Variation of yield exhibited itself at this step as a variation in lot size, which in turn resulted, in some cases, in the upper thermocouples being out of the liquid. When the chart recorder was reviewed, the 'air' thermocouples would not have the correct time and temperature profile, therefore failing the process step specifications and resulting in batch rejection!"Rejection is better than prevention
"As a junior employee in quality, I was given the job of reviewing label photostats to be sure that the printer was going to print the label correctly including text, colors, and format," says our GMP Agent-In-Place. "It was a time-consuming check, and I would find issues frequently, which would delay the printing of the labels. Sometimes, this would result in a stock-out situation, and the manufacturing and logistics directors would rant and rave about the intolerable delay.
"All of a sudden the label photostats stopped showing up at my desk. So I asked my boss what was going on. Apparently they had convinced the head of quality that my involvement was 'non-value added,' and had written me out of the system. Now the incoming quality assurance staff was responsible for catching the errors, after the labels were printed and delivered. So far, incoming quality hasn't missed anything, and the new process hasn't prevented the delays. Apparently, a material rejection is easier to take than time needed to prevent the rejection in the first place."
Coins and capsules
"We never found out who did it, but someone had put coins in a bulk capsule storage drum," says our GMP Agent-in-Place. "These coins were found during the packaging of the batch, and resulted in a massive investigation, including a 100% inspection of the product packaged so far. We ultimately ended up rejecting all product from that drum."
A stinky joke
"Employees, especially laboratory employees, like to play practical jokes," laughs our GMP Agent-in-Place. "One day, my colleague placed sulfur into a beaker and piped low-pressure air across the top of the beaker toward other lab employees to give them a rotten egg smell. For a while, the other employees kept looking around for the flatulent individual, but there was no one there."
The one that got away (twice)
"One of our senior manufacturing employees was offered an assistant vice-president position with the training group," reports our GMP Agent-in-Place. "But her current manager claimed she was too valuable to let go and tried to prevent the promtion to keep her. The company executive vice-president in human resources stated that no one was allowed to block a promotion and the employee was allowed to take the job in the training department.
"Within six months, the manufacturing department offered her a 'true' vice-president position, which was a promotion above her current position. You guessed it: The training group couldn't block this promotion, and the manufacturing group 'got even.'"
Pharmaceutical Technology's monthly "Agent-in-Place" column distills true-life cautionary tales from the secret files of Control, a senior compliance officer. If you have a story of clueless operators, oblivious management, inopportune lapses of judgment, or Murphy's Law in action, please send it to Control at [email protected]


text: Sooo cold - 2F right now and dropping steadily! Ice all up our windows - good thing I have a thick head of hair or I would need to wear a beanie to bed tonight!! Our bed only fits in the room under our window - which is single pane glass. Makes for pretty patterns on the windows, but impossible to see out without getting the ice scraper


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I don't know about them but I would like to know when Super Paper Mario is out in the UK.
We don't. Loser.Originally Posted by WiiZero
You should have read the above posts. Go away.
I don't know about them but I would like to know when Super Paper Mario is out in the UK.
Yeah, as far as I know SSBB and MP3 are both down as 2007, so it can be anytime within the stated year. Not so sure about GH though.
The key to immortality is first living a life
worth remembering. - Bruce Lee
PSN ID: Byuakuya
im a major naruto fan and i was wondering if any naruto games will be coming out for the wii cause if there is IM GONNA B E PSYCHED
ppl say its june 1st and im believin that but they might be liein about ssb BRAWLOriginally Posted by foxmaster21
This is the most accurate and up to date info you will find. Anything else is just a guess or rumor. I speculate MP:3 is coming out sooner than the other games because I doubt they would release Galaxy, Brawl and Corruption all in a 2 month period. I speculate Metroid will be released in this batch of games (Late summer). I'll risk been called a loser and say that specific dates are unknown.
I'll kick your ass at Mortal Combat and Cooking Mama!
ok..ok guys i got more news i figured out that in every nintendo power i have ever got that tell about brawl (last 3 issuses) it says release date ''June 1st 2007''
Foolish little brother.
dude i thot ur computer was taken away and stuff anyway plzzzz give me a calll plzz
hey this is jake gomi a call plz and i fuxin hate narruto but i thot u mite like to no a narruto gma for wii will come out somtime i n 2007Originally Posted by ItachiUchiha
IM NEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! erm.. sorry. Watch E3 07 they MIGHT announce the dates.


text:
The Western Wall and other tourist spots in Jerusalem have made a "great impression" on heavy metal musician Ozzy Osbourne.
The singer, in Israel for the Tel Aviv leg of his OzzFest tour, spent a day touring around the Old City of Jerusalem.
Accompanied by his Jewish wife Sharon, he also visited Holocaust museum Yad Vashem. Mr Osbourne said: "We were very pleased to have the opportunity to come to Israel and visit the holy sites."
He will perform in Tel Aviv's Hayarkon Park.tonight. Responding to critics who called for him to boycott the concert, Mr Osbourne said he had "no time" for politics.


text:
I applaud the Plain Dealer Editorial Board's Sept. 10 editorial "Anti-gay incidents near West Side bar accentuate importance of community education in advance of the Gay Games." This is a necessary and timely editorial.
While considerable advances have been achieved through the ballot box, the legislative process and the courts in the past few years, LGBT people continue to struggle for equality, dignity and their rightful place in society. Bigotry rooted in ignorance continues to thrive throughout the fabric of our culture and not just in a "badly lit stretch of Detroit Avenue between West 93rd and West 91st Streets" or among "the young people who live near West 91st and West 93rd streets and Detroit Avenue."
It would be a serious mistake for us to delude ourselves that anti-gay behavior is limited to places that are perceived as less desirable or to reckless and poorly educated juveniles who just do not know better. The reality is that homophobia, and its attendant hateful behavior, is no less present in the well-lit, well-to-do neighborhoods and among more mature and well-educated communities of greater Cleveland as it is in the area between West 93rd and West 91st streets near Detroit. To believe otherwise is to perpetuate the ignorance that allows bigotry to flourish in all its insidious forms.
Like many other minority groups, LGBT people are painfully aware that prejudice and hateful behavior entail much more than blatant acts of physical and verbal violence. While these behaviors are by themselves repugnant, they are just the tip of the iceberg. There is no dearth of shunning, hostile attitudes, mocking and malicious murmuring toward LGBT people at all levels of society, even in our tonier neighborhoods and among those mature and better educated people who theoretically, "should know better."
Your editorial calls on us to, "address the ignorance that has been making headlines." I would strongly encourage us to expand that call and do our utmost to address all ignorance that perpetuates hate; both that which is currently in the headlines and that which goes on daily and unreported in our society, because the latter is no less insidious and destructive.
In the Episcopal Church's Book of Common Prayer, the Baptismal Covenant calls us to "strive for justice and peace among all people, and respect the dignity of every human being." This is the plumb line of behavior we must hang in the midst of all our communities.
The Rev. Peter Faass,
Shaker Heights
Faass is the Rector of Christ Episcopal Church.


text: Evaluating the Raptors post games By Zarar Siddiqi Jul 24, 2010 The sport was designed to be played inside-out. Call it a belief that I started subscribing to the first time I watched basketball being played. Without further ado, let's take a look at the post-up games of the current squad, in alphabetical order.


text:
Today will be partly cloudy with a high of 68 and a low of 53.
The high pressure that has dominated our weather this week is sliding off to the east, which will trigger a weekend warm-up.
Saturday will be partly cloudy with a high of 73 and a low of 54. Sunday will also be partly cloudy with a high of 74. Monday's high will be 75 before the next cold front begins to approach the region.
Nationally, a significant rainfall event is underway across portions of the West Coast as unrelenting Pacific moisture slams into the region. Northern California and southern Oregon will see the greatest rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches by early next week. Strong winds and mountain snow will also impact the area.


text:
Noon flights to New York, Newark and Washington were cancelled as airports there shut down with the hurricane raking the Northeast with rain and wind gusts.
The effects of the hurricane are expected to reach the Detroit area when Sandy combines with two other weather systems and creates a superstorm stretching nearly 500 miles from its center.
Local wind gusts are expected to reach 40 to 50 miles per hour this afternoon, the National Weather service announced.
The Detroit Free Press this morning counted 146 cancelled Detroit Metro Airport departures.
Travelers are advised to check flight statuses online, with more severe weather expected to continue tomorrow. The hurricane is threatening to blow ashore tonight or Tuesday.
Follow Khalil AlHajal on Twitter @DetroitKhalil or on Facebook at Khalil MLive. He can be reached at email@example.com or 313-643-0527.


text:
Really? no help at all?
Hi everyone, I'm new here which I'm sure is painfully obvious. I just got a Wii about 5 days ago and I'm having troubles getting on the internet. I've picked up my wireless router, put the password in and everything checks out. But when it goes to test the connection, it times out and gives me Error Code: 52030. Heres the catch, I've tried it on three different wireless router and i keep getting the same error code which leads me to believe the problem is within the Wii. I've also tried a wired connection and got a different error code but do not recall what it was. All advice is welcomed
Really? no help at all?
We got teh same error code with our new wireless router. We had to manually set it up. I found info on how to do this on a forum somewhere by google-ing it . I had to go to manual set up option on the wii, enter in the ip address, subnet , etc..
I found the instructions I followed. Go to this link
I followed teh link on there for manual instructions.
Thank you very much, i'll try it


text:
Plans are underway for the Fanwood Choir Festival, to be held on Sunday, May 19, at 7 p.m., at Fanwood Presbyterian Church. The choir festival will feature uplifting music from a large chorus with distinguished conductors. The concert is free and open to the public. A freewill offering will be received to be donated to the rescue squads of Scotch Plains and Fanwood.
Singers are invited to join in the chorus. Rehearsals will be on Wednesday evenings at Fanwood Presbyterian Church, 7:30 – 8:30 p.m., beginning on April 3. Singers will need to purchase a packet of music (cost is $20), which will be available at rehearsals. Dress rehearsal will be Sunday, May 19, 3 – 5 p.m. All are invited to join the chorus to support the rescue squads. It would be especially meaningful to have those who may have been assisted by the rescue squads singing in the chorus. Music reading skills are very helpful but not required, and those that have not sung in choirs before but would like to learn to sing choral music are more than welcome. Fun, community spirit, great singing, and supporting a worthy cause are guaranteed.
Guest conductors will include Cindy Bell, Andrew Moore, Jan Allen, Seth Garrepy, and Thomas Berdos.
Bell is Associate Professor of Music Education at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., where she directs the 150-voice University Choir, teaches graduate and undergraduate classes, and coordinates the music education program. She is a regular guest conductor for the annual Ocean Grove Choir Festival in Ocean Grove.
Moore has performed extensively throughout the United States, Germany, and Great Britain. He holds the Bachelor of Music degree from the Curtis Institute of Music, and the Master of Music degree and the Doctor of Musical Arts degree from the Juilliard School. Moore teaches at the Pingry School where he is chair of the Music Department. He is the organist and choirmaster of Christ Church in Short Hills.
Allen has been a vocal music teacher in the Scotch Plains-Fanwood School District since 2001. She is the choral director of the six choral ensembles at SPF High School, and is also producer and music director of Repertory Theatre. Allen earned her undergraduate degree in Music Education from Westminster Choir College and her master's degree in music education from Boston University.
Allen is also a music director at Liquid Church.
Garrepy is a choral conductor, composer, and technologist from the Hartford, Connecticut area. He specializes in a cappella contemporary and small-ensemble choral music, as well as sacred choral Early Music. Garrepy is Instructor of Music at Mid-America Christian University in Oklahoma City, OK. He holds his B.Mus. degree in music composition from Oral Roberts University and his M. M. in choral conducting from the University of Oklahoma.
Berdos, organizer of the Fanwood Choir Festival, is director of Music Ministries at Fanwood Presbyterian Church. On the music faculty of The Pingry School, Berdos has also taught on the faculties of Taylor University, Nyack College, and other colleges. An award-winning music educator, he has presented workshops at NJAIS conventions.
Berdos has organized and conducted regional performances of Handel's "Messiah" for many years. He will again appear as a guest conductor at the Ocean Grove Choir Festival this July. He is also a published composer of music for piano, organ, and brass ensemble.
For more information or to participate in the chorus, contact Tom Berdos at firstname.lastname@example.com or 908-889-8891, ext. 17.


text:
University of Portland athletic director Scott Leykam could be in the running to become West Coast Conference commissioner, as Jamie Zaninovich, the current holder of that post, is leaving to become Pacific-12 deputy commissioner.
The San Jose Mercury News said it had sources claiming Leykam, who became UP's athletic director in 2012, is among the potential candidates. Also named was former Pilots AD Larry Williams, who Leykam replaced.
The story said the WCC would like to have a new commissioner in place by July 1.
Leykam did not respond to phone messages or texts.
Leykam has a history with the WCC office. Previous to his Portland tenure, Leykam worked for four years as WCC commissioner of external relations. Among Leykam's WCC duties were overseeing the conference's television packages and basketball tournament.
Portland is currently undergoing significant change as longtime school president Rev. E. William Beauchamp is retiring in May.
Twitter: @nickdaschel


text:
Some Colorado Clerks Issuing Marriage Licenses To Same-Sex Couples
By Shelby Clark Petkus
Originally printed 6/26/2014 (Issue 2226 - Between The Lines News)
The Denver Posts writes that, just hours after the 10th U.S. Circuit Court struck down Utah's ban on gay marriage, Colorado's Boulder County began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The appeals court covers Colorado, Utah, Oklahoma, Wyoming, New Mexico and Kansas.
The office of Colorado's attorney general, however, stated any same-sex marriage licenses wouldn't be valid. Only two couples were married before the office closed at 4:30 p.m. on June 25.
The move against equality comes after Colorado's Attorney General, John Suthers, issued a June 18 statement reaffirming the state's constitutional prohibition on same-sex marriage.
Suthers wrote, "Today's decision by the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals was stayed by the court and has not gone into effect even in Utah, let alone in Colorado. Any marriage licenses issued to same-sex couples in Colorado before a final court resolution of the issue are invalid."
Despite these remarks by the attorney general, clerks' offices in Lafayette and Longmont will start issuing same-sex marriage licenses on Friday. Boulder County Clerk Hillary Hall said she'll continue to issue licenses at the Boulder office.
Hall, who consulted with the county's legal team, determined that the court's stay order applied only to Utah. "We think it is both legally and morally correct," Hall said of her decision. "Colorado's prohibition on same-sex marriage has treated our citizens and families as second-class citizens for too long."
Boulder County has a longer history of same-sex marriage activism than most; in 1975, Boulder County Clerk Clela Rorex issued a few gay couples marriage licenses until she was ordered to stop by then-Colorado Attorney General, J.D. MacFarlane.
Like Michigan's most recent issues with the DeBoer vs. Snyder case, if the current stay applies to the entire 10th Circuit, same-sex marriage licenses may become invalild. Ann Gushurt, attorney and co-counsel in the court case against Colorado's gay-marriage ban, hopes possible invalidation will be just a temporary setback.
"In the long run, I think they'll all be valid," Gushurst said. "It is inevitable that marriage bans everywhere will fall."To read more on the 10th Circuit Ruling, read BTL's article here.
More Michigan
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Lake Effect
Hot off Season 7 of the LOGO channel's "Ru Paul's Drag Race" phenomenon, Darienne Lake of Season 6 spoke with Between the Lines about her upcoming hosting gig at Motor City Pride June 6.View More Pride Guide
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text:
Interfaces for visual music composition
Ryan Raffa
Originating as an investigation into the relationships between rhythm and technology, RhythmSynthesis applies color, shape, and sound to demonstrate how our understanding of visual music, computation, and tangible, audio-visual interactions can be applied as considerations in musical compositions. As an instrument, the final piece allows for experimentation, rewards for mastery, and is a vehicle for expression. For more on this project: ryanraffa.com/parsons/thesis/