text:
Pocket-lint Podcast #83 - Samsung Galaxy S III eyewitness account special
Pocket-lint spent some quality time with the Samsung Galaxy S III a couple of days before its official launch, so the team focuses on that, revealing some of the features and details that makes the new handset so exciting.
Plus, we interview none other than the ex-England rugby captain and sporting legend Laurence Dallaglio as he, Freddie Flintoff, Graham LeSaux and Lee Dixon undertake a gruelling bike ride across Europe in Virgin Media's Cycle Slam.
Editor of news and ex-Gamesmaster telly presenter Rik Henderson is joined by owner and TV pundit Stuart Miles for the Samsung Galaxy S III chat, contributing editor Hunter Skipworth for the interview.
Ensure that you listen below or subscribe via iTunes in order to get your all new and improved Pocket-lint Podcast hit from every Friday morning at 8.30am...
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Sorry for the slight delay to the podcast this week, gremlins had got into the works at Pocket-lint Towers, but we've now chased them out with a broom.
Please let us know what you think of the Pocket-lint Podcast, and we'd really appreciate it if you review the show on iTunes.
The Complete Android N Developer Course will get you building your own apps with help from Rob Percival (90 per cent off)
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Here's why you can't access Netflix, Twitter, Spotify, or Reddit
- The Complete Android N Developer Course will get you building your own apps with help from Rob Percival (90 per cent off)
- Londoners will soon benefit from Link's 1Gbps Wi-Fi booths
- Dive into a development career with the Ultimate Front End Development Bundle (96 per cent off)
- Here's why you can't access Netflix, Twitter, Spotify, or Reddit
- Keep your family's Apple devices optimized with this trio of essential apps (85 per cent off)
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- Apple MacBook Pro (2016) vs MacBook Pro (2015): What's the difference?
- Microsoft Surface Studio vs Apple iMac: What's the difference?
- OnePlus 3T vs OnePlus 3 vs OnePlus 2: What's the rumoured difference?
- Microsoft Surface Book i7 (2016) vs Surface Book (2015) vs Surface Pro 4: What's the difference?
- Apple MacBook Pro (2016): Release date, specs and everything you need to know
- OnePlus 3T: Release date, rumours and everything you need to know
- Motorola has a mid-range phone on the way, the Moto M
- Google Pixel XL review: Android's new heavyweight champion
- Best Fitness Tracker 2016: EE Pocket-lint Gadget Awards nominees
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Kirmac Collision Services - Burien
Featured Business
Hi-Line Auto Electric823 SW 148th St.
Burien, WA 98166
0.1 miles away
"Thomas said this facility has a great and friendly staff. They are very knowledgeable and they did a..."
Review for Kirmac Collision Services - Burien
Gardner C. on 11/20/2013
Gardner said the experience went well.
Category: Collision
Service Date: 11/15/2013
Review Created: 11/20/2013
This review was collected via phone interview by Customer Research Inc.


text:
Gorgeous villa, games room, water view, 2 masters
From $105 / night
Description from the manager
Description from the manager
Bedrooms: 4/
Bathrooms: 3/
Sleeps: 8/
Type: Villa
Book this 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom villa in Davenport today! A total of 8 people can sleep here comfortably.
Guests can enjoy a pool, air conditioning, and parking space among other amenities offered by this rental.
No travelers have shared a review of this property yet.
The owner responds to 65% of inquiries, which is lower than average, and last updated the property's calendar 2 weeks ago.
About the manager
About the manager
Dennis Homecare Services Inc
Dennis Homecare Services Inc
- Response rate: 65%
- Response time: A few hours
- Calendar updated: 2 weeks ago
Overall rating:
4.8 / 5.0
Proximity to TripAdvisor's Top Davenport Attractions
Proximity to TripAdvisor's Top Davenport Attractions
Reviews (0)
Also consider
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- Texas vacation rentals- 5,695 rentals from $99/night


text:
Our 50th birthday issue is on sale now. We're celebrating five decades of great food and travel with our biggest issue yet.
Subscribe to Australian Gourmet Traveller before 27th November, 2016 and receive a Villeroy & Boch platter!
Subscribe to Gourmet Traveller for your iPad.
Join us at Quay for a specially designed dinner by Peter Gilmore to celebrate the launch of the new Gourmet Traveller cookbook.
Meet Aerin Lauder; creative director, lifestyle mogul, mother and global traveller. Here she shares her musings on Morocco, the exotic catalyst for her latest collection.
A modern-day gin palace, The Distillery, is set to open in the middle of London's Portobello Market this year.
The executive chef shares his salt and pepper squid recipe, including his secret for a crisp, light batter.
How do you remake a landmark without compromising its essence? The new Ritz Paris pulls it off in rare style, writes Susan Skelly.
A Thai-Laotian mix opens in Braddon.
For GT's 50th issue, our biggest issue to date, we listed those in the food and drink industry who are Australia's most influential. From restaurateurs to butchers and coffee aficionados, this is how we whittled down the list.
Ahead of Danielle Alvarez's long-awaited restaurant Fred's opening in Paddington this week, we've round up seven recipes she's shared with us.
A pantry staple, noodles are ready in a flash. Here are six different recipes, all ready in under 30 minutes.
Here are 14 fresh takes on these small saltwater clams, from a hearty red mullet bouillabaisse to grilled pancetta scallop canapes and a Vietnamese glass noodle soup.
These dozen tales depict divergent lives in food. Swerve from a fast and furious account of a drug-addled line cook, to a fragrant memoir about living and cooking in China.
Sokyo's Chase Kojima's new project is something completely new.
Ready for spring? Take inspiration from last year's most popular salads, roasts and more that make the most of seasonal produce.
What brings people together more than tequila? Tequila, tacos and cake.
Kensington, hold onto your hats.
Five airports that go all out on luxury design, premium cuisine and first class service. Transit time never looked so good.
Lunch Wed-Sun noon-4pm
Dinner Thu-Sun 6pm-10pm
Maximilian's has always made the most of its Adelaide Hills setting - a high-gabled, whitewashed farmhouse surrounded by vineyards and pastures - but now the 1980s dining institution presents a contemporary menu celebrating quality farm fare with finesse. Chef Shane Wilson focuses on the flexible, adding a venison burger and sharing plates of pork hock terrine with apples and cornichons, or confit beef cheek and sweetbreads - a good match for those grazing at the adjacent Sidewood cellar door. The restaurant's long-held signature of Black Angus chateaubriand has been retained, but Wilson introduces a few tricks from his time at Hentley Farm - tuna ceviche with lime, gin and puffed wild rice. Garden sides are notable, such as roast cauliflower with sugarsnap peas and goat's curd. Informed staff and a wine list focused on Adelaide Hills neighbours complete the rural dining experience.
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text: Item is not available Find Another One Others Looked At... Smith & Wesson SW1911 PRO SERIES semi-au... SELLER: baystategunbuyers 1 $939.00 Smith & Wesson SW1911SC E Series .45 ACP... SELLER: My Gun Vault 1 $1,209.95 SMITH AND WESSON 4516 SELLER: SPORTSMENS OUTPOST INC 1 $499.99 Cased Nickel Smith & Wesson 59 with hand... SELLER: Vintage Arms of Illinois 1 $1,200.00 S&W M&P40VTAC 40SW - $610.00 SELLER: Ram Rods Guns and Ammo 1 $610.00 Smith & Wesson 9mm model 6904 Lightweigh... SELLER: Robertson Trading Post 1 $359.00 Guns Pistols Smith Wesson Pistols Autos Alloy Frame S W | 641 | 106 | Lc | 296.9454ms S&W 669 For Sale from Nicck | Positive feedback: 100% View | | 3 Completed Sales View Sellers Items This item is no longer available. /UserImages/23378/992900250 2466672.jpg /UserImages/23378/992900250 2466673.jpg Description Shipping and Payment More Info Smith Wesson 669 with 2 12 round mags. In good condition. Minor wear on ejection port. Free shipping See Description Trades Accepted: No Condition: Used, Minor Wear Caliber: 9 mm Luger Location: NJ Share Item Item #: 992900250 This item is no longer available. Price: Shipping: See Description (or Arrange local transfer) Accepted Payment Methods: Returns: No Returns Nicck Seller Since: Feb. 2000 Seller Level: Verified This seller is NOT an FFL City: Princeton Jct State: NJ Your Recently Viewed Items


text:
$45.00 1 week ago
Banana Republic Heels - $45 (fort pierce)
Banana Republic High Heels Size 8 worn once
1 week ago
Treasure Coast, FL
$35.00 1 week ago
Banana Republic Jeans/Capris - $35 (Lewiston Orchards)
Banana Republic jeans/capris *Both in excellent condition. $35.00 eachSize 6 capris. Excellent condition. $35.00Size 4 jeans. Excellent condition. $35.00
1 week ago
Lewiston, ID
$65.00 2 weeks ago
XL Banana Republic Leather Jacket - $65 (google map)
Worn less than a dozen times. Mint conditionCheck out the commercial https://us.letgo.com/en/vp/a806bc6a-9ad4-43db-9fae-f8380334db48Online Home Consignmentwww.onlinehomeconsignment.com
2 weeks ago
Ventura, CA
Contact Us 2 weeks ago
BANANA REPUBLIC - Stretch Cropped Capri Pants & Shorts Women's Size 6 (Newbury Park, Camarillo, TO, Simi Valley)
Inquiries without a phone number will not receive a reply back.Very nice pair of cropped/capri pants and shorts. Both are black in color. They are like new (never worn, tags removed). Size 6. I am asking $20 (cash) for the shorts and $30 (cash) for the cropped/capri pants. Great for career wear!I am mainly in Simi Valley (right off of the 118 fwy - I can meet you locally). Every now and then I dri
2 weeks ago
Ventura, CA
Contact Us
$3.00 2 weeks ago
Banana Republic Womens brown pants sz 8 stretch, long - $3 (61st and union)
Pickup 61st and union onlyGreat condition, super comfortable.$3Also have other pants this sz available.
2 weeks ago
Tulsa, OK
$45.00 2 weeks ago
Banana Republic outdoors vest - $45 (helena)
Banana Republic outdoors vest $45Suitable for a safari, a photojournalist, a hunter or fisher; this is from the pre-Gap acquisition days; never worn since purchased, just sat in a box wrapped in tissue paper lo these many years (comes from a non-smoker household); still has its Banana Republic store tags; size large; khaki in colour; fully lined; full zipper closing; boasts three front Velcro clos
2 weeks ago
Helena, MT
$90.00 2 weeks ago
Barbour Jacket, Ralph Lauren, Orvis, Brooks Brothers, Banana Republic - $90 (Cleveland)
Incredible opportunity to own a Unisex handmade Made in England classic Barbour Jacket.Barbour supplies most of the royalty of Europe, including the British Royal Family.The Border model now sells for over $400 USD!This jacket is used, one owner, but still in excellent/well cared for condition. Barbour Border Mens Wax Jacket in desirable Sage Green color. (color is same as in photo)Size 48" Chest.
2 weeks ago
Cleveland, OH
Contact Us 3 weeks ago
Banana Republic Tops (Redding)
Like new. Both have been dry cleaned and are ready to go. Selling for $10 eachPlum colored one is size 2Black colored one is size 6
3 weeks ago
Redding, CA
Contact Us
$12.00 3 weeks ago
Banana Republic Capris- Size 29 - $12 (Redding)
Very cute!! Hemmed with cuff on bottoms. Red!! Thanks email please
3 weeks ago
Redding, CA
$3.00 3 weeks ago
Super soft and comfortable "chino's"Sz. 0-2Like new$3. eachLots more name brand quality tops and bottoms available in sz. small$1 - $4. Each!
3 weeks ago
Buffalo, NY
$30.00 3 weeks ago
Lot of Size M Men's Sweaters Banana Republic - $30 (Cary)
Excellent condition, smoke free, pet free home. Although sizes vary, they mostly fit like a medium. See photos and description below:Dark Grey, Calvin Klein, Size LBlack V Neck, Esprit, Size MBlack, Banana Republic, Size MBrown Striped, Banana Republic, Size MLight Green, Banana Republic, Size SMint, Esprit, Size MBlue V Neck, Banana Republic, Size SBlack Striped, Banana Republic, Size M
3 weeks ago
Raleigh, NC
$40.00 3 weeks ago
Banana Republic Men's Leather Coat - $40 (Spring Lake)
Banana Republic Men's Leather CoatColor - BlackSize - Men's MediumNo rips or tearsGreat condition$40.00 - Offers welcomePlease see attached pictures.
3 weeks ago
Muskegon, MI
$20.00 3 weeks ago
Banana republic mens shirts and sweaters - medium size - $20 (Lakewood/Denver)
I have a bunch of Banana Republic shirts and sweaters, for $20 you get all of them! All mens size medium, only worn a few times to try them out, excellent condition. My girlfriend bought them for me, but they are the wrong size for me, otherwise I would keep, they really nice. Blue half zip with grey and lighter blue argyle pattern. Two half zip long sleeve shirts, one autumn orange and one green.
3 weeks ago
Denver, CO
$3.00 1 month ago
Stylish Banana Republic TrousersSz.0Beautiful quality and detailing, dressy stretch fabric.Slim cut!Orig. $90.
1 month ago
Buffalo, NY
$2.00 1 month ago
BANANA REPUBLIC BLOUSES- xs - $2
Gorgeous quality BR blouses size xs.Perfect for business or casual wear.Beautiful styling impressive detailing.These are in very like new condition!!!Smoke/pet free home.$2. EachMore Banana Republic Items Available!!
1 month ago
Buffalo, NY
$7.00 1 month ago
Banana republic skirt - $7 (4 corners)
Dark gray banana republic size 4 business skirt. Stretchy.
1 month ago
Bozeman, MT
$15.00 1 month ago
Banana Republic Women's Scarf - $15 (Short Pump)
Grey & white women's winter scarf from Banana Republic. $15 cash.
1 month ago
Richmond, VA
$20.00 1 month ago
Negotiable. Banana Republic Size 4- Grey Dress Pants. Worn once. - $20 (Duson)
Banana Republic Size 4 Grey Dress Pants. Worn once.
1 month ago
Lafayette, LA
$20.00 1 month ago
Negotiable. Banana Republic Size 6 Khaki Dress Pants Worn Once - $20 (Duson)
Banana Republic Size 6 Khaki Dress Pants Worn Once
1 month ago
Lafayette, LA
$20.00 1 month ago
Negotiable. Banana Republic Size 4 Dark Brown Dress Pants Worn Once - $20 (Duson)
Banana RepublicSize 4 Dark Brown Dress Pants Worn Once
1 month ago
Lafayette, LA


text:
The XO Move concept scooter looks cool and acts cool. When you're ready to park and disembark, the back folds forward to secure it from being wheeled away. It should easily be able to carry two people and has a wheelbase that can be adjusted to make it more stable at high speed.
It was a group project designed by Camile Baron, Damien Grossemy, Josson Thomas & Kevin Lecoutre.
Implications - People look for products that are easy to store. Companies should take this into consideration when it comes to designing their products as homes are now getting more compact and if a product is to survive, it must be practical in design.
Folding Booty Scooters
More Stats +/-
VR Dementia Aids
Beer Enthusiast Club Branding
Charge-Free E-Paper Displays
Mediterranean Packaged Bread Sticks
Bite-Sized S'mores Bars


text:
5,149 vehicles matched;
Now showing page 74 of 206. 25 results per page.
Listed by Classical Gas Enterprises
1971 Chevrolet Chevelle Convertible SS Tribute
Classic muscle that sounds incredible roaring down the road with the
Listed by Smoky Mountain Traders
Most All of Our Auctions End Early
Call Us for A Great Price
865 988 8088
Up for sale we
Listed by Copperstate Classic Cars
Rustfree Arizona Chevelle SS clone. A lot of money has been spent building this 1971 Chevelle. The car is a great
Listed by Classic Car Center
1964 Corvair Convertible: They don't get any Nicer! Owned for the last 30 years by a past-President of the Virginia
Listed by Barrett-Jackson Collection Showroom
Although 1967 was originally planned to be the first year of the C3 generation, Chevrolet postponed the introduction of the
Listed by Autobarn Classic Cars
STK 2175 1965 Chevrolet Corvette Chevrolet introduced the original Stringray in 1963, the year of the 'Split-Window' coupe.
Listed by Hall Truck & Auto Sales Inc.
We have in the REDMOND location a 1966 Chevrolet 10 pickup long bed in very good condition stated to me
Listed by Streetside Classics - Atlanta
The backbone of the old car hobby is not pedigreed cars that cost six figures, but rather the cars that
Listed by Specialty Sales Classics
This 1967 Chevrolet Chevelle Super Sport 2 Door Hardtop (Stock # F13173) is available in our Fairfield, CA showroom and
Listed by Classic Rides and Rods
1963 Chevrolet Corvair Monza, Auto, this is a super clean fully restored, every part is outstanding. Great Driver.
Listed by Private Seller
VIN: 194677S113573 Numbers matching with original L79 327/350HP motor, 4 speed, power brakes and steering, air conditioning, leather seats, cast
Listed by Gateway Classic Cars
For sale at Gateway Classic Cars in our Fort Lauderdale Showroom is a 1968 Chevrolet Camaro. This certainly is not
Listed by Keystone Corvettes
350 Automatic, Power Steering, Power Brakes, Air, Tilt/Telescopic Wheel, Numbers Match, Power Windows, Rear Defrost, New Paint, New Tires, New
Listed by Streetside Classics - Dallas / Fort Worth
If you're into Pro-Touring and want an early Camaro that gets everything right, this 1968 Chevy Camaro should do the
Listed by Keystone Corvettes
350 Automatic, Power Steering, Power Brakes, Air, Tilt/Telescopic Wheel, Numbers Match, Very Good Driver.
Listed by American Classic Car Sales
SS 396 with Protecto plate. Very recent toal restoration. Car needs nothing. 350hp automatic, power steering, power brakes, cold factory
Listed by North Shore Classics
1963 Chevrolet Impala45000 Original Miles454 V-8 Motor -Replaced in 2013Heads intake- mild cam- stock manifoldEdelbrock carburetor700R Automatic Transmissionreplaced in 2013Rear
Listed by North Shore Classics
1968 Chevrolet El Camino82000 milesEngine: 350 C.I V-8 MotorExhaust headers, 4-barrel Edelbrock Carburetor (rebuilt)Transmission: 350-turbo hydromantic 4-speed AutomaticTransmission was rebuild
Listed by PJ's Auto World
1969 Chevy C10 Custom Pickup for Sale. Restored receiving many upgrades and modifications. Trucks are HOT, and here's
Listed by PJ's Auto World
1968 Chevrolet Camaro for Sale. Number matching 327 engine block, upgraded GM performance snowflake aluminum intake manifold, 4 barrel
Listed by RK Motors Charlotte
496 cubic inch V8
Tremec T56 Magnum 6-speed manual transmission
Custom ultraleather interior / Vintage Air conditioning
House Of Kolor Blue Blood Red
Listed by My Hot Cars, Inc.
Great amp; Affordable Classic 1967 Daily Driver Camaro. 350 CID. Crate Engine. Powerglide Automatic Transmission.
Listed by Old Town Automobile
Super clean Nova, nice body and paint solid floors, original interior in excellent shape, AM /FM stereo, cold factory air
Listed by Gateway Classic Cars
1964 Chevrolet Malibu Chevelle SS for sale in our Tampa Showroom. This restomod is incredibly cool with all the looks
Listed by Vanguard Motor Sales
1968 Chevrolet Nova
The previous owner of this '68 Nova worked at a Chevrolet dealer parts department and


text:
With plans to reintroduce Daewoo cars to the U.S. market this year, the newly established GM Daewoo Auto & Technology Ltd. (GMDAT) plans to leverage multiple brands, say published reports from South Korea.
|Daewoo's Kalos could come to U.S. as the Chevy Aveo.
The auto maker reportedly intends to send its Magnus – which was sold in the U.S. as a Daewoo Leganza – and new Lacetti sedan (which replaced the Nubira in the Daewoo lineup) to the U.S., where they will be sold under the Suzuki badge. Suzuki Motor Corp. is 20%-owned by GMDAT parent General Motors Corp.
The Suzuki-badged Daewoos are set to bow Feb. 12 at the Chicago Auto Show.
Additionally, it appears Chevrolet soon will get a Daewoo vehicle – most likely the new Kalos subcompact. Sources tell Ward's the Kalos will be dubbed the Aveo, a name trademarked by GM, for the U.S. market.
President D. Nick Reilly says GMDAT plans initially to introduce four models to the U.S. market: the Magnus, Lacetti, Kalos and Rezzo multi-purpose vehicle. Combined, the vehicles will sell at least 100,000 units annually, he says (see related story: Daewoo Cars May Hit U.S. This Year).


text:
Give us a call to get our secret deals 800-468-3578
Property Location
Located in Wheeling (North Suburbs), The Westin Chicago North Shore is close to Heritage Park and Sportsman's Country Club. This 4-star hotel is within the vicinity of Raupp Memorial Museum and Trinity International University.
Make yourself at home in one of the 412 air-conditioned rooms featuring refrigerators and plasma televisions. Your room comes with a pillowtop bed. Wireless Internet access (surcharge) keeps you connected, and satellite programming is available for your entertainment. Private bathrooms with shower/tub combinations feature designer toiletries and hair dryers.
Don't miss out on the many recreational opportunities, including an indoor pool, a spa tub, and a fitness center. This hotel also features complimentary wireless Internet access, gift shops/newsstands, and wedding services.
Grab a bite to eat at the hotel's restaurant, which features a bar, or stay in and take advantage of 24-hour room service. Quench your thirst with your favorite drink at a bar/lounge. Buffet breakfasts are available daily for a fee.
Business, Other Amenities
Featured amenities include a 24-hour business center, limo/town car service, and express check-in. Event facilities at this hotel consist of conference space and a meeting room. Free self parking is available onsite.
You must present a photo ID when checking in. Your credit card is charged at the time you book. Bed type and smoking preferences are not guaranteed.Your reservation is prepaid and is guaranteed for late arrival. The total charge includes all room charges and taxes, as well as fees for access and booking. Any incidental charges such as parking, phone calls, and room service will be handled directly between you and the property.


text:
Need programmer to finish my c# website
This project was awarded to vw6790814vw for zł33 PLN / hour.Get free quotes for a project like this
Awarded to:
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Project Budgetzł24 - zł45 PLN / hour
Total Bids42
Project Description
I'm looking for experienced .net/c# developer who will finish car selling site.
You need to be freelancer and you must find a time to work on the project atleast 5 days in week and after every day report work progress. I will hire for hours. ( I'm not interested to hire a company who will finish the project after 60 businness days or spam me with fake promises with best programmers in the world).
I will prepare list what needs to be done part by part. I will sent you whole project and database + not coded views in html.
All views are coded into html.
Some modules are ready. You need to connect rest views and make them functionable. The project is in advanced mode. The database model is finished and it is on sql server.
Looking to make some money?
- Set your budget and the timeframe
- Outline your proposal
- Get paid for your work
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- Wall Street Journal
- Times Online


text:
Customers Feedback :
I had heard about online gifting but was little hesitant till I came across your site. Thanks for your service. – Johnson, Australia
I must admit I am extremely impressed with your exceptional service. No wonder I only use your site to send gifts to my friends N relatives staying abroad. Best Regards – Sharmila, Kolkata
Hi, I have been always happy with your site's delivery timing and the quality of the products. This time I am especially happy since I ordered it at the very last moment. Still you managed it so well. – Jasper, Brazil
"The webpage is easy to navigate and easy to use and have no issue in finding the product quick and easily and the delivery schedule is also just right". – Richard, London
Great customer service, will definitely use your website again. Very much pleased. – Denish, Thailand


text:
Fan Creates Surfer Blood "Catholic Pagans" Video That Looks Like The Suburbs
The "Suburbs" of Rio
Not much to say about the gorgeous footage combined with County Grind's favorite Surfer Blood song, aside from that the washed-out Super 8 clips are reminiscent of the washed-out packaging accompanying the Arcade Fire's The Suburbs. Kudos to Cecilia Bodin from Rio de Janeiro for stringing together such a gorgeous backdrop for the song, complete with a lot of well-timed tapping feet. Watch below. [Via Kanine]
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Queerty is better as a member
Senile old fool needs to be in a retirement home
@ho: Get off of my yard!
Work out your balls oldie!
At that age, its necessary to leg press as much as you can. Anal leakage is problem at 118 years old. Hey, wait a minute……..
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PHOTOS: The Manflesh Is Thick 'N' Juicy In Melbourne
Nasty Women! Bad Hombres! Our Favorite Memes From Last Night's Debate Debacle
PHOTOS: Burrow Into D.C.'s Otter Den
10 GIFs That Sum Up Our Response To Shepard Smith Coming Out Of His Glass Closet
PHOTOS: These Romans Cannot Stop Making Out


text:
Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security. J.C. Jansen W.G. van Arkel M.G. Boots
- Erna Hilde van Veen
- 1 jaren geleden
- Aantal bezoeken:
1 January 2004 ECN-C Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security J.C. Jansen W.G. van Arkel M.G. Boots
2 Acknowledgement This report brings out results of a pre-study commissioned by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment agency, MNP. These are due to serve as inputs in the imminent Sustainability Outlook, being prepared by MNP and CPB. The authors thank Joop Oude Lohuis, Jacco Farla, Bert de Vries, and Detlef van Vuuren and co-reader Michiel van Werven for constructive input and comments. The ECN reference number of the present research activity is Abstract To our knowledge, so far amazingly little research work has been undertaken to construct meaningful indicators of long-run energy supply security for a particular nation or region. Currently, in addressing energy supply security, policy makers tend to emphasise short-term supply disruptions. In contrast, this pre-study accords with the broader Sustainability Outlook in considering the long-term perspective. This report starts with taking stock, in a concise way, of the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. Then a brief survey of relevant literature is made on long-term strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by high uncertainty and a lot of unchartered territory. We found the work of Andrew Stirling very inspiring in this context. Based on his work and considering the limitations of the present research activity, we retained the Shannon index as the best simple indicator of diversity. In the core of the report, the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. Stepwise, additional aspects of long-term energy supply security are introduced. These aspects are: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply. Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources. Long-term political stability in regions of origin. The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region/country itself. After small adjustments to allow for data availability, these indicators were applied to the reference year 2030 of four long-term scenarios with data of base year 1995 and projections for underlying variables provided by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP). Preliminary interpretation of the results suggests the usefulness of the indicators presented in this report. A second activity undertaken in this report was identifying possible long-lasting disruptions in the supply of natural gas to Europe and their potential effects. Three examples have been elaborated in the Annex. 2 ECN-C
3 CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES 4 LIST OF FIGURES 4 SUMMARY 5 1. INTRODUCTION 7 2. MAIN PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES: EU SUPPLY PATTERN AND SUBSTITUTION POSSIBILITIES Introduction Energy supply patterns in the EU Coal Oil Gas Nuclear energy Renewable energy sources Conclusions DIVERSITY TO ENHANCE ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY: SOME THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS Conceptualisation of long-term energy supply security Risks and diversity concepts with associated hedging approaches Some probabilistic approaches Stirling s ignorance approach Conclusions DESIGN OF INDICATORS Introduction Basic indicator Allowance for energy import dependency Allowance for import dependency and long-term socio-political stability Additionally: allowance for resource depletion Conclusions CASE STUDY: APPLICATION TO SUSTAINABILITY SCENARIOS Brief introduction of the scenarios Adjustment of the indicators Numerical results Concluding remarks 28 REFERENCES 30 ANNEX A MOGELIJKE ONDERBREKINGEN VAN DE AARDGASVOORZIENING 31 A.1 Stagnatie doorvoer Russisch gas via de Oekraïne 31 A.2 LNG in de ban 33 A.3 Extreem hoge gasprijzen 34 ECN-C
4 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Baseline scenario projections of total primary energy supply by source in the EU-15, stated in the Energy Outlook 2020; Projected numerical values of normalised long-term energy supply security indicators to the four MNP/CPB sustainability scenarios; year Projected relative changes in the value of successive long-term energy supply indicators for four MNP/CPB sustainability scenarios; year LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 Andrew Stirling s classification of risk and diversity concepts and attendant approaches 14 4 ECN-C
5 SUMMARY The MNP, in collaboration with CPB, is preparing a long-term scenario study with year 2040 as time horizon for a Sustainability Outlook (Mooij and Tang, 2003). To that effect four global scenarios are being investigated, with the world divided into 17 regions in line with the TIMER model, an energy module of the IMAGE model. OECD Europe is one of the regions. One of the main topics to be addressed in the upcoming Sustainability Outlook is energy supply security. The MNP has requested ECN to undertake a brief pre-study on the energy supply security issue with a focus on OECD Europe (with the EU forming the core). This pre-study focuses on two research questions: 1. Is it possible to design a macro indicator for long-run energy supply security and, if so, how could this be done? 2. Which forms of (long-term) disruptions in the supply of natural gas and which response patterns can be expected, and what would be the order of magnitude of attendant costs? The main text of this report deals with the first research question. The second question is addressed in Annex A of this report. To start with, the energy supply situation in the EU-15 is briefly reviewed. Unexpected sustained disruptions in oil and, to a lesser extent, gas supply would seem the most serious by far from the perspective of end users in the EU. Particularly in the transportation sector, substitution of current, petroleum-based energy carriers is difficult to effectuate. Furthermore, increasing dependency in the power sector on natural gas would imply high stranded costs in case of responsive adjustment to unexpected, serious long-term disruptions in the supply of natural gas. In other areas of energy services, current energy carriers can be substituted in the long run with relative ease, if in a number of cases at substantial short-term adjustment costs. In the face of large blind spots of ignorance on long-term future socio-economic developments, well-designed diversity strategies with regard to the portfolio of long-term energy supply options appear to hold out the best promise of energy supply security. Diversity can be considered from different angles, notably variety (the number of available options, categories, species), balance (the spread among options) and disparity (the nature and degree to which options are different from each other). Stirling (1999) has shown that the Shannon diversity index is the most attractive simple index reflecting both variety and balance in an even way. Inclusion of disparity remains cumbersome. For the purposes of the present report we have retained the Shannon index for further elaboration. Four long-term energy security indices have been conceived, allowing for an increasing number of long-term supply security aspects. Aspects introduced in our indicators on a stepwise additional basis are successively: Diversification of energy sources in energy supply (I 1 ). Diversification of imports with respect to imported energy sources (I 2 ). Long-term political stability in import regions (I 3 ). The resource base in regions of origin, including the home region itself (I 4 ). After some small adjustments owing to data availability, the indicators referred to above have been applied to reference year 2030 of four MNP-CPB long-term sustainability outlook scenarios. These indicators proved quite well amenable to making projections of long-term development of energy supply security for a particular region. We have endeavoured to make some preliminary interpretation of the results under the four MNP-CPB scenarios. The results presented ECN-C
6 seem encouraging for emulation in other applications and for conducting follow-up research on the design of energy supply security indicators As for indicator I 4 - the indicator allowing for all four aspects considered of the extent of longterm energy supply security - the projected scores in year 2030 on a scale are as follows: Global Economy: The Global Economy scenario accounts for the lowest score, mainly because of (i) poor fuel diversification and, less so, (ii) high dependency on imports from political unstable regions and (iii) high dependency on fuels from regions characterised by relatively fast depletion of these fuel resources. Transatlantic Markets: This relatively high score owes especially to the relatively good fuel import diversification in terms of regions of origin. Strong Europe: Very poor import diversification in terms of regions of origin is a major factor explaining the poor score of this scenario. Regional Communities: This scenario performs relatively well on aspects such as fuel diversification and (relatively low) dependency on fuel imports from regions with potentially unstable political conditions. In Annex A we identify three possible sources of long-lasting disruptions in the supply of natural gas to Europe and analyse their potential effects. First, disruption of transit of Russian gas via the Ukraine serves as an example of political risk. Second, a European ban on LNG trade could be a technological risk, e.g. following an explosion in a LNG terminal or container. Finally, a potential economical or market risk is a structural high gas price, e.g. as a result of monopolistic market power. 6 ECN-C
7 1. INTRODUCTION The MNP, in collaboration with CPB, is preparing a long-term scenario study with year 2040 as time horizon in the framework of her publication Sustainability Outlook, due early To that effect 4 global scenarios are being investigated, with the world divided into 17 regions in line with the TIMER model, an energy module of the IMAGE model. OECD Europe is one of the regions. One of the main topics to be addressed in the upcoming Sustainability Outlook is energy supply security. The MNP has requested ECN to undertake a brief pre-study on the energy supply security issue with a focus on the EU (or, alternatively, OECD Europe). This pre-study focuses on two research questions: 1. Is it possible to design a macro indicator for long-run energy supply security and, if so, how could this be done? 2. What could be forms of (long-term) disruptions in the supply of notably natural gas, which response patterns can be expected, and what would be the order of magnitude of attendant costs? The main text of this report deals with the first research question. The second question will be dealt with in the form of draft text boxes in Dutch dealing with three distinct case studies. These are reported upon in Annex A of this report. 1 The project team has been requested by the MNP to give special attention to a number of possible indicator attributes, associated with energy supply security. In the ToR mention is made of: Net import dependency, whether or not weighted by type and intensity of use of primary energy source (PES). The following five categories are suggested: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables. Import source (by TIMER region). Geopolitical stability of sources of origin. With respect to exhaustible resources: world reserves situation. And possibly: Differences in energy demand and demand preferences. The degree of collaboration between nation states (within the EU; EU and major trading partners). In a meeting on 30 July last at RIVM additional attributes for further consideration were suggested on the part of MNP. That is: Transport distance of imported energy resources. Transport mode for Oil (pipeline, ship), and Natural Gas (pipeline, LNG). Marginal supply costs for each distinct PES. In the various briefings the project team has been requested to provide information on useful concepts and approaches that would provide insight into assessment of the degree of energy supply security. Furthermore, any suggested macro indicators of energy supply security should be acceptable to the stakeholders concerned, including ECN itself. 1 The division of work has been as follows. Jaap Jansen acted as project leader and prepared the main text of the present report. Maroeska Boots prepared Annex A with three case studies on long-term disruptions of natural gas supply (written in Dutch in accordance with the research contract). Wim van Arkel conducted data research in support of Chapter 2. ECN-C
8 The outline of this report is as follows. Chapter 2 briefly reviews the official EU energy outlook and issues related to the opportunities to administer changes in the energy mix at the level of major energy use categories. In Chapter 3 a brief survey of relevant literature is made on longterm strategies to ensure survival of systems - be it biological, social, etc. - in an environment largely characterised by ignorance. The Shannon index is retained as the best simple indicator of diversity. In Chapter 4 the Shannon index is elaborated into four indicators of long-term energy supply security. In the final chapter, Chapter 5, slightly adjusted variants of these indicators are applied to four long-term scenarios for the ongoing MNP/CPB Sustainability Outlook main study. 8 ECN-C
9 2. MAIN PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES: EU SUPPLY PATTERN AND SUBSTITUTION POSSIBILITIES 2.1 Introduction This chapter provides a brief overview of the five PES categories considered. Firstly, the relative importance of each PES category in total energy supply (gross inland energy consumption) of the EU is considered. Secondly, some broad observations are made on main applications and ease of substitution. 2.2 Energy supply patterns in the EU For providing some background to projection exercises of energy futures in the OECD Europe area, it is useful to review the most authoritative scenario study that has been used for policy formulation in the EU over the last 4 years. The EU-15 in fact is the core region of the OECD Europe area. One of the major tools currently used by the European Commission for energy scenario projections, is the PRIMES model of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). 2 Table 2.1 below reproduces some key baseline projections published in the quite influential publication (EU, 1999). 3 The baseline scenario is based on the assumption that EU policies in place at the time of writing (1999) will be continued. These include, among other policies, the continuation of support for renewables and co-generation and the extension of the lifetime of nuclear plants to 40 years. The baseline does not include any policies that specifically address the climate change issue. NTUA s baseline scenario (EU, 1999) projects for the EU-15 a total primary energy supply in year 2010 of 65 EJ compared to 57 EJ in base year 1995 (0.9% growth per year). Growth in total energy supply would decelerate subsequently to 0.4% per year with an annual energy supply level reaching 67.5 EJ in Moderate economic growth, structural changes of the EU-15 economy towards low-energy-intensity services and energy efficiency improvement are major factors at play. If the pertinent lifetime extension assumption holds true, most current nuclear power plants will be decommissioned between 2015 and This would provide for new opportunities to coal (solid fuels) after 2015 to fill part of the nuclear power gap. NTUA s baseline scenario envisages a gradually subsiding dash for gas trend due to an increasing relative price of gas. European importers of gas from Russia and Central Asia could face competitive pressures from rising gas demand in East and South Asia. Increasing demand for oil in transportation would be almost offset by plummeting demand for non-renewable liquid fuels in other sectors. 2 The information on energy supply and consumption in the EU presented hereafter is based on Eurostat data. The latter source is adhered to for the sake of convenience: EU renewable energy policy targets are based on Eurostat data. Typically the Eurostat Convention on energy statistics tends to indicate a lower contribution of RES to total primary energy supply than, e.g., IEA statistical conventions. Major reason is that Eurostat assesses primary energy contribution of primary electricity sources (e.g., hydro power, wind power) at its calorific value (1 kwh = 3.6 MJ). IEA uses a much higher notional fossil-fuel replacement value to assess the primary energy quantity per kwh of primary electricity, applying a standard rate of notional conversion efficiency. 3 At the time of completing the final draft for this chapter, an updated NTUA study European Energy and Transport 2030 (EU, 2003) has appeared. The major conclusions relevant to this study, do not seem to have materially altered. ECN-C
10 Primary energy supply based on renewable energy sources (RES) would rise gradually from a rather low base. NTUA s baseline envisages for the EU-15 a RES-based energy supply in 2010 and 2020 on the order of 2.34 EJ and 2.49 EJ, against 1.95 EJ in base year Renewable energy would grow over the periods and by rather modest rates of 1.4% per year and 1.2% per year respectively. In 2010, under the baseline scenario renewables would contribute a mere 5.7% to total energy supply, that is no less than 6.3% short of the 12% indicative target, officially adopted by the EU. In the same year, among all renewables biomass and hydro electricity would contribute most, that is 3.4% and 1.7% respectively. Wind would be the fastest runner-up with a still modest share in 2010 of 0.3%. NTUA (EU, 1999) projects the impact of Climate Change policy to have a mildly stimulating impact on renewables. The most stringent carbon-constrained scenario, S6, would lead to a carbon price (annual marginal abatement cost) of per tonne of carbon in year 2010 and /tc in year The S6 scenario would push up the renewables share in total energy supply to 8.4% in as against 6.2% in the baseline scenario. At the time of completing the final draft for this chapter, an updated NTUA study on the European Energy Outlook 2030 has appeared. At first glance, the major conclusions do not seem to have materially altered.3 Table 2.1 Baseline scenario projections of total primary energy supply by source in the EU-15, stated in the Energy Outlook 2020; TPES TPES Annual growth Primary energy Source Base yr Proj. Proj. Base yr Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [EJ] [%] [%] [%] [%] Non-RES Solid fuels Liquid fuels Natural gas Nuclear Subtotal Non-EU electricity RES Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Marine energy NA Hydrogen NA Subtotal Total Source: Adapted from (EU,1999: Tables 3-3 and 3-9; base year data derived from Eurostat data) 2.3 Coal Main applications Main applications of coal in Western Europe are in the power sector. Furthermore, a much less important application is cooking coal used in the steel industry. 4 and presumably to a share in between 5.7 % and 8.2 % in year No details on 2010 projections have been presented for the S6 scenario. C.f. (EU, 1999: p.97, Table 4-24). 10 ECN-C
11 Flexibility and substitution possibilities In a sustainability-oriented society the application of coal for combustion purposes has some serious environmental drawbacks, especially in terms of pollutant emissions. Among fossil fuels, the combustion of coal yields the highest GHG emission burden per unit of energy. For example, CO 2 emission factor for coal is 94 kgco 2 /GJ against 56 kgco 2 /GJ for natural gas. For coping with local pollutants, a variety of abatement options exist, mainly end-of-pipe options, with a fairly affordable price tag. However, no easy options to abate GHG emissions are at hand. Options include: CO 2 removal and storage (geological sequestration). Relevant issues when resort to this option is to be had, are the environmental integrity issue and the issue of (acceptable) additional costs. Biomass co-firing. This raises the questions as to how to ensure adequate supply of biomass at acceptable costs, and how much biomass can be used without disrupting the operation of the power plant(s) concerned. With regard to substitution of coal, power plants are typically equipped to use a second fuel. Older plants can typically readily convert to fuel oil. Coal-fired plants of a recent vintage in areas with a gas distribution infrastructure can typically readily convert to natural gas. Conversion to fuel oil would lead to a CO 2 reduction on the order of 20 to 25%, against 40% for conversion to natural gas. In the iron and steel industry coke coal is used for combustion at the required high temperatures. No easy substitute exists. 2.4 Oil Main applications The bulk of oil products is for use in transportation (light and middle distillates). More than 99% of today s energy supply for road transport in OECD-countries stems from crude oil (69% gasoline and 30% diesel), while the currently most important alternative fuels hold minuscule shares; that is, LPG 0.9% and natural gas 0.05% (IEA/AFIS, 1999). In developing countries the relative importance of middle distillates (automotive diesel) tends to be much more pronounced than in the OECD area. LPG can be produced from oil as a by-product in oil refineries and as a valuable by-product from gas separation (treatment) plants near natural gas production fields. Much less significant applications of middle and, notably, heavy distillates are for heating applications in industry and power (process heat for, among others, boilers), and in the household and services sectors (space heating). Furthermore, non-energy applications in the chemical sector are quite significant for applications such as plastics, PVC, etc. Flexibility and substitution possibilities Short-term to medium-term options to reduce the oil-share in favour of natural gas are LPG and CNG. Infrastructure requirements are fairly demanding, especially for the introduction of CNG. As for LPG, it can be either a by-product of oil refining (no oil substitution) or can be produced from condensates extracted from cleaning of natural gas near gas production fields (gas-for-oil substitution). Up to some 5-10% of oil requirements for road transportation might be replaced by gas-based fuels, such as CNG and (in part) LPG in the medium to long run, say by year 2015 at the earliest. A long-term option to reduce the oil-share in the transport fuel market by up to some 15% by, say year 2025 at the earliest, is consisting of bio-fuels. These include bio-diesel (based on vegetable oil energy crops like rape seed and sunflower or spent cooking oil form the food industry) and ethanol (based on starchy plants such as sugar beet, sugar cane, wheat, barley or on cellulose from wood or biomass waste like stalks). In addition, there are methanol biofuels routes based on woody biomass. For reasons of availability of moderately priced biomass, the best long run prospects seem to be with the ones based on woody biomass. The conversion ECN-C
12 routes concerned, though, need further technological development with prospects for significant reduction of the conversion process costs within a ten years time period. Furthermore, a very long-term substitution option is the use of hydrogen in fuel cells based on natural gas or renewables. This option may become cost competitive at any significant scale for natural gas by For renewables-based hydrogen production this would be the case by 2040 at the earliest. For non-transport energy options, generally substitution options into direction of coal, gas, and biomass tend to be readily available. Abrupt disruptions in oil supply may cause short-term adjustment problems though. Generally, for most non-energy oil-based products, substitutes tend to be readily available but with an appreciably higher price tag. Abrupt oil supply problems will cause serious transitional adjustment problems on the short term but less so in longer time frames. 2.5 Gas Main applications The share of natural gas in TPES of OECD Europe (=EU-15 plus Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) has grown from 9.7% in 1973 to 22.6% in The residential sector is the largest consuming sector of natural gas, followed by the industrial, electricity and commercial sectors. The use of gas in power generation is growing rapidly. Flexibility and substitution possibilities In gas markets, demand is generally not very flexible. Most residential and commercial customers are unable to switch easily to alternative fuels (furthermore, they cannot store gas). Industrial customers and power generators with bi-fuel equipment usually have little incentive to maintain this costly equipment because the price of gas is often linked to the price of alternative fuels. Coal is generally the most important alternative fuel for natural gas multi-fuel equipment in power generation (14% of net electricity generating capacity with combustible fuels (excluding nuclear and renewable) in OECD Europe). However kerosene and oil are also used as alternative fuels for natural gas in power generation. In 1998 the net maximum electricity generating capacity in OECD Europe was GW, of which by combustible fuels. From the generating capacity with combustible fuels, 12% is single natural gas fired, respectively 14% and 2% is dual natural gas fired in combination with solid fuel or liquid fuel. Another 5% is multi fired combining the three types of fuel. 2.6 Nuclear energy Main applications The only major application is in power generation. Flexibility and substitution possibilities A broad range of options based on all other primary energy sources can readily substitute nuclear-based electricity. Short-term adjustment problems relate to the stranded costs associated with pre-planned closure of nuclear power plants, including the earlier needs for financing the relatively large exit (decommissioning) costs. 12 ECN-C
13 2.7 Renewable energy sources Main applications Main applications are in power generation (hydro, wind, biomass co-firing) and in a variety of industrial and household heat applications. Production of liquid and gaseous fuels from biomass for application in transportation and in heat applications is still small but picking up. In developing countries biomass use for especially cooking and - less so and quite site-specific - heating in households and small-scale enterprises. Flexibility and substitution possibilities Apart from large hydropower and niche markets in isolated areas the renewable energy applications tend to be relatively expensive. Substitution possibilities are readily available. Following abrupt disruptions in the supply of renewable energy sources, in niche markets in isolated areas short-term adjustment problems might be faced. On the other hand, none of the five PES categories is as diverse in terms of the nature of sources it encompasses, harnessing technologies applied, and regional incidence. When the renewable energy resource base of a region under consideration, this feature bestows on renewable energy a strong innate resilience against supply disturbances with respect to one particular source of renewable energy. Generally favourable environmental impact features increase the attractiveness of renewable energy form a sustainability perspective. 2.8 Conclusions Among the five PES categories discerned, unexpected sustained disruptions in oil and, to some lesser extent, gas supply would seem the most serious by far from the perspective of end users in the EU. The energy field in which even in a long-term framework substitution of current, petroleum-based energy carriers is the hardest to effectuate is the transportation sector. Furthermore, increasing dependency in the power sector on natural gas would imply high stranded costs in case of responsive adjustment to unexpected, serious long-term disruptions in the supply of natural gas. In other areas of energy services, current energy carriers can be substituted in the long run with relative ease, if in a number of cases with high short-term adjustment costs. ECN-C
14 3. DIVERSITY TO ENHANCE ENERGY SUPPLY SECURITY: SOME THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS 3.1 Conceptualisation of long-term energy supply security This pre-study is concerned with the measurement of the extent a particular study region can ensure meeting ex ante demand for energy services at affordable prices of over long time frames ahead up to year The measuring rod to be designed should focus on long-term threats to the energy supply and delivery system of a region, notably sustained fuel supply disruptions, and attendant long run hedging approaches. Supply disruptions of short duration that do not pose a long-term challenge to the regional energy system will be disregarded. An essential feature of ensuring long-term energy supply security is conceived of the determination of efficient portfolios of primary energy sources. Efficiency in the aforementioned context refers to the trade-off between reducing serious threats to sustained provision of energy services - including notably threats in currently uncharted territory - and average unit costs of (primary) energy supply for a given portfolio. The indices to be designed should at least provide an ordinal ranking of alternative socioeconomic development scenarios with respect to the extent that long-term energy supply security is ensured under the distinct alternative scenarios and their projected portfolios of energy supply options. 3.2 Risks and diversity concepts with associated hedging approaches 5 Figure 3.1 Andrew Stirling s classification of risk and diversity concepts and attendant approaches (Source: Stirling, 1999: Box 2) The logical complement of energy supply security is energy supply insecurity. For designing relatively effective hedging strategies a first question to be answered is what is our state-of-theart knowledge of Figure Sections 3.2 and 3.4 borrow from Stirling (1999). 14 ECN-C
15 Types/events of long-term energy insecurity, a region such as the EU does face over long time frames ahead? In a number of seminal publications (inter alia, Stirling 1994; Stirling 1999) Andrew Stirling has developed some quite revealing insights to this question, which we like to briefly review in the remainder of this section. In Stirling (1994) he distinguishes three basic states of incertitude : i. risk. A probability density function may meaningfully be defined for a range of possible outcomes; ii. iii. uncertainty. No basis for the assignment of probabilities exists; ignorance. No basis for the assignment of probabilities to neither outcomes, nor knowledge about many of the possible outcomes themselves exists. In Stirling (1999) Andrew Stirling elaborates incertitude into four fundamental categories of incertitude by way of a dichotomy of knowledge about likelihood s and knowledge about outcomes as depicted in Figure 3.1. Risk, properly defined, is a measure where a probability density function may meaningfully be defined for a range of possible outcomes (Stirling 1994). Financial analysts tend to focus on the downside of risk, for instance on the exposure to the chance of loss or unpleasant surprises. The word chance suggests that these analysts deem that for the cases considered downside risks can be captured in terms of probabilities. In the strict case of risk the top left-hand corner of the top left-hand quadrant would apply. Probabilistic approaches would lend themselves in addressing risk in a world that would develop along patterns predictable from past trends. We will discuss some of these approaches in the next section. However, it would seem that great blind spots exist in our knowledge on even the very nature of defining future events, let alone their probabilities. This renders at least complete, and perhaps even partial, reliance on probabilistic hedging approaches to the extremely complex issue of long-run energy supply security questionable. The same may well apply to Bayesian approaches, assigning subjective probabilities to a presumably exhaustive set of significant events by way of Delphi-like methods to compile weighted expert opinions. The famous economist Friedrich Hayek paraphrased such approaches as the pretence of knowledge. Another framework for incertitude conditions is phrased by Stirling fuzziness. This state refers to the situation under which the various possible outcomes do not admit discrete definitions, but where the degree to which they are actually manifest can be expressed in numerical terms akin to the assignment of probabilities (Stirling, 1999: 16-17). Also this framework does seem to offer limited attractiveness to the issue at stake in this report. Of perhaps greatest importance for the purposes of the present report is the condition, dubbed by Andrew Stirling, ignorance. This is a state under which there exist neither grounds for the assignment of probabilities, nor even a basis for the definition of a comprehensive set of outcomes. This is depicted in the lower right hand of Figure 3.1. It emerges especially in complex and dynamic environments where agents may themselves influence (in indeterminate ways) supposedly exogenous events and where the very identification of particular courses of action can exert a reflexive influence on the appraisal of alternatives. Stirling recites suitable dictums ascribed to Pliny and Lao Tzu respectively: The only certainty is that nothing is certain and Knowing ones ignorance is the best part of knowledge (Stirling, 1999: 17 and 19). From several sciences the insight emerges that in a state of ignorance diversity provides resilience to systems exposed to incertitude. For instance, Darwin brought out that diversification through evolution facilitates creation, and consequently survival, of the fittest species, and by implication of the biodiversity system. Also in the science of technology dynamics, the idea not to put all (R&D expenditure) eggs in one basket mitigates the negative impact of technological lock-in. Yet in keeping with Milton Friedman s adage there is no such thing as a free lunch : diversity has its costs, e.g. in terms of foregoing certain cost reduction advantages related with economics of scale and standardisation. Given new information technology developments, ECN-C
16 though, the diversity optimum may shift over time toward more diversity. We revert to the ignorance framework and diversification strategies in Section Some probabilistic approaches In the insurance business sector ample resort is taken to probabilistic approaches to predict fair insurance premiums at which for the population of insured agents, on aggregate, neither loss or gain is expected from shifting the damages risk of a defined occurrence to the insurer concerned. Insured agents are even prepared to accept premium loadings from which the insurer can recover its costs and make a reasonable profit. This relates to risk-averse utility functions of individual entities, while an insurer is able, in principle, to reduce risk through risk pooling under prevalence of the law of large numbers. This is subject to several conditions (Skipper, 1998): Adequate information should be available to identify the nature of damage risk events covered by a certain policy and to make an adequate prediction of the future loss probability distribution function. Parametric values have to be periodically monitored and adjusted. Absence of conditions of adverse selection (only high-risk agents from a certain target population insure themselves based on asymmetric knowledge). Loss events should be mutually independent. Note that this condition may be violated at times of catastrophic events. Over-exposure risks should be re-insurable (capable of being transferred to re-insurers at a re-insurance premium). Key to the insurance business is that the risks covered by insurance policies are clearly identifiable and susceptible to ample statistical documentation to make reliable predictions on future damages trends. These type of conditions do not hold for the unknown set of future surprise events from the perspective of present-day analysts, that will help shaping future energy supply systems. Another approach that by the end of the 1990s has gained increasing popularity in banking and assets and liabilities management applications is Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches. This approach can be applied to any portfolio of assets and liabilities, whose market values are available on a periodic basis. To implement it, the probability distribution of price changes for each portfolio instrument should be known. Typically, normal distributions are assumed with values for price volatility (δ), based on past statistics. Using calculated parameter values for the whole portfolio, the maximum portfolio loss can be projected provided a specific unlikely event does not occur, for example a 5% chance adverse price movement within the next holding period. The result of this calculation is the value at risk. This may help to set trading risk limits. For example, for the next trading day for a certain trader a VaR limit of 1 million on his stock of trade commodities might be set. However, the VaR approach depends critically on reasonable estimates of price volatility and correlations among financial assets as well as the assumed distribution of price changes (Levich 2001: ). Lately, as a result of unexpected falls in share values sophisticated VaR applications by asset and liability management specialists fell short of preventing portfolio values of many pension schemes in the Netherlands and elsewhere from diving well below mandatory liability-coverage rates, set by financial markets regulators. The last application of a probabilistic approach to be reviewed here is the Markowitz s portfolio theory to the portfolio of electricity generating assets. Shimon Awerbuch has pioneered this specific application. The main idea in this application is to determine the efficient frontier. This graph visualises the set of optimal portfolios (with optimal shares for distinct asset categories). Optimality refers to Pareto optimality in the trade-off between portfolio risk and portfolio return. For each portfolio on the efficient frontier: The expected portfolio holding period return (HPR) cannot be improved without increasing expected portfolio HPR risk. 16 ECN-C
17 The expected portfolio HPR risk cannot be reduced without reducing expected portfolio HPR. Awerbuch defines portfolio return in the case of electricity generating assets as the reciprocal of unit generating cost (reciprocal of cost per kwh) and price risk in terms of price volatility per holding period (δ per year). The latter is based on statistics of performance over past years and predicated on the assumption that past performance patterns have predictive value for future performance. Awerbuch (Awerbuch, 2000) has applied the portfolio theory to the U.S. case with a simplified portfolio of 3 generating technologies. In an extension to EU generating mixes, Awerbuch and Berger (Awerbuch and Berger, 2003; Berger, 2003) have extended the model to 11 technologies and several cost components. To further enhance the practical value of portfolio theory applications for energy policy makers: The portfolio basket of generating technologies could be extended further, notably with respect to renewables-based technologies. Environmental constraints need to be introduced. Applications can be further extended to the portfolio of primary energy supply for meeting a region s demand for energy services. In doing so, for each major power generating technology plausible projections of unit costs and cost volatility per major cost item would have to be made. In discounting future cash flow projections of generating costs, due allowance will be made for price (volatility) risk, cost-reducing technological advances, and inclusion of costs of environmental damages to an extent compatible with preferences of EU policy makers. Based on projected unit costs and volatility covariation patterns, efficient (i.e., optimal) portfolios of generating assets can be determined, reconciling policy concerns on generating power at least cost, energy supply security and environmental protection. Under current conventional energy system cost calculations, inadequate allowance is made for notably energy supply security concerns. For the EU, being a major importer of fossil fuels, these concerns would seem to have a high political urgency (EU, 2000). Considerations on risk aversion and implementation constraints, notably with regard to renewables, will reduce the relevant part of the efficient frontier for policy makers. 3.4 Stirling s ignorance approach In order to design optimum diversity strategies in the face of conditions of ignorance, diversity needs to be characterised. Stirling uses diversity as an overarching concept with three subordinate properties (Stirling 1999: 39): Variety. Refers to the number of categories into which the quantity in question can be [or rather: is] partitioned. For example, in our case the quantity may be defined in terms of primary energy (e.g. EJ) and the categories may denote PES (primary energy sources) categories or, in a more refined analysis, major energy conversion technologies. Variety is a positive integer. All else being equal, the greater the variety of a system, the greater the diversity. Balance. Refers to the pattern in the apportionment (spread) of that quantity across the relevant categories. Given the number of categories, the more even the spread, the greater is the diversity. Disparity. Refers to the nature and degree to which the categories themselves are different from each other. For example, it would appear that the categories Oil and Natural Gas are less disparate than Oil and Renewables, considering the heterogeneity of the latter. Disparity, though, is an intrinsically qualitative, subjective and context-dependent aspect of diversity. ECN-C
18 Stirling has addressed the question as to whether and how diversity can be captured in a simple and robust quantitative index. His threefold variety-balance-disparity concept of diversity is non-parametric in the sense that the system is not ex ante stylised by a structural model, for example a normal distribution, or theoretical framework. Based on a review of non-parametric measures of ecological diversity, he could not identify any that addresses the complex and fundamentally subject concept of disparity. As Hill has demonstrated the two most prominent dual concepts, marrying variety to balance, are subject to same general form: a = i (p i a ) 1/(1-a) Setting a=1, the Shannon-Wiener index (henceforth briefly Shannon index ) can be obtained: 1 = - i (p i ) ln p i Setting a=2, the reciprocal of the function, referred to in ecology as the Simpson diversity index and in economics as the Herfindahl-Hirschman concentration index, (henceforth Simpson index ) emerges: 2 = 1 / i p i 2 Stirling s preferred dual concept diversity index is the Shannon index. Arguments are: Sensitivity of final ordering. Changes of the base of logarithms used in Shannon (Stirling uses by natural logarithms by default) do not change the rank orderings of different systems and, by implication, do not lead to different relative sensitivities to variety and balance. In contrast, using another exponential power (than 2) in Simpson may lead to different rank orderings. There does not seem to be a clear reason why only exponential power 2 should be chosen in the case of Simpson. Additivity property in case of refining the taxonomy. Given the subjectivity in classifications (referring to the subordinate property of disparity), a diversity index would be more robust if it holds the following property. Its value for a system of options, which has been disaggregated according to a combined taxonomy, should be equal to the sum of the index values obtained for the same system classified under each taxonomy individually. Shannon, as distinct from Simpson, exhibits this property. No easy way to capture disparity presents itself. The way in which options are disaggregated determines the results that are obtained in any analysis of dual concept diversity. Comparing two systems with same variety and balance, the more disparate system will be the more diverse as well. A dual concept index, though, would indicate the same diversity value. A practical approach to address the diversity challenge is to adopt a classification, which is conservative with respect to the particular hypothesis investigated. For example, in Stirling (1994) Andrew Stirling investigated the strength of the diversity argument prominently used by the U.K. government to sanction enhanced reliance on the option Nuclear in the U.K. power supply system. He adeptly showed that the option Renewables would held out the same or more diversion benefits at an appreciably lower diversity premium. This in spite of a conservative classification scheme (Renewables would seem much more heterogeneous than Nuclear) and conservative cost assumptions favouring Nuclear. Stirling (1999) enumerates the properties of his ideal diversity index as follows: Being complete. It should address at the same time the variety, balance, and disparity components of diversity. Being parsimonious. Involving only those types of variable or operation, which are already required in the appraisal of contending options. Being transparent. Requiring a minimal number of hidden assumptions concerning the natures and structures of the systems under scrutiny. 18 ECN-C
19 Being robust. The orderings obtained should not be sensitive to changes in the value of those parameters that are included. Being consistent. The principle elements of consistency are: (i) Given balance and disparity, the index should increase monotonically with variety. (ii) If variety is equal to one, the index should take a value of zero. (iii) Given variety and disparity, the index should increase monotonically with the degree of balance in the spread of option contributions. (iv) Given variety and balance, the index should increase monotonically with the aggregate distance between options in the disparity space. (v) Where this aggregate distance is zero (i.e., where all options are effectively identical), the diversity index should take a value of zero. The most ideal dual concept diversity index, Shannon, possesses all properties just mentioned, except for completeness and elements (iv) and (v) of consistency. Stirling proposes an integrated multicriteria diversity index, M, possessing all ideal properties: M = ij d ij. p i. p j Where: p i = the proportional representation of option i d ij = the distance in a Euclidean disparity-space between options i and j. And: variety: V = i p i 0 (high V indicates high diversity) balance: B = (1/V) [ i (p i - 1/V)] (low B indicates high diversity) disparity: D = ij d ij (high D indicates high diversity) He further refines the M index into an interaction matrix, M, by allowing for a range of factors relating to complex (positive or negative) interactions between options. For example, the inflexible operating characteristics of Nuclear do not go along well with intermittent Renewables such as Wind or PV but can be conveniently reconciled with the flexible operating characteristics of CCGT (combined cycle gas turbine) technology. Using a Monte-Carlo technique and matrix optimisation procedures, Stirling provides an example of an application of M with proprietary software to explore trade-offs between diversity and other aspects of performance in a multi-criteria analysis mode of research. 3.5 Conclusions Hedging against potential threats to long-run energy supply security can be modelled by way of probabilistic approaches. A potentially attractive one is application of Markowitz s portfolio theory in a fashion pioneered by Awerbuch. For the portfolio of PES options, one would need to project over the time frame with horizon 2040 the development of: Unit costs for the distinct PES options, whether or not broken down into major cost components. Cross-correlations of unit costs. The shares of distinct PES in total primary energy supply. The assumption that past trends have predictive value for the future is a rather heroic one over the long time frame considered. Nor is all required information on past price volatility readily ECN-C
20 available. It would seem though, that past price volatility performance with respect to the distinct PES indicates evolving market expectations on future supply uncertainties. Uncertainties reflected in historical market clearing price volatility include changing perceptions on aspects such as political risks, resource depletion and carbon constraints. Moreover, sharp fuel movements appear to occasion notable asymmetric macroeconomic shocks (Sauter and Awerbuch, 2002). In the face of large blind spots of ignorance on long-term future socio-economic developments, well-designed diversity strategies with regard to the portfolio of long-term energy supply options appear to hold out the best promise of energy supply security. Stirling (1999) has shown that the Shannon diversity index is the most attractive dual concept diversity index, reflecting both variety and balance in an even way. Inclusion of disparity remains cumbersome. One could apply a relatively simple optimality analysis, comparing scenario scores with respect to the Shannon index to a single performance criterion, for example unit energy cost (see Stirling 1994), or apply complex multi-criteria analysis methods (Stirling 1999) to identify Paretooptimal scenarios. For the purposes of the present report we will retain the Shannon index for further elaboration. The integrated multi-criteria index M and interaction matrix M seem too complicated and prone to methodological caveats, although the latter indices would certainly seem worthy of further exploration in a large future research project. 20 ECN-C
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text: I have several friends interested in buying the California-legal fixed magazine AR-style receivers (so they can build a rifle that looks and handles like an AR-15 except for loading, which must be done from the top). I've seen the FAB-10 version of this, which apparently works pretty well, but is no longer being made by the original manufacturer. They apparently sold the rights to the product to another company (in Nevada, I think), and I don't know if they are in production or not. The original FAB-10 also had a thick and somewhat glossy "powder coat" paint finish that (in my opinion) didn't look good. I'd find it easier to recommend one finished like a standard AR receiver. I understand that Dalphon is/was/might also make a version of this, but their web site seems to be perpetually "under construction" with no information I can find on this product, and little about anything else. I also read a rumor awhile back that Bushmaster was developing something like this, but that might just have been wishful thinking. Anyway, now I can't find any current information on any version of these fixed magazine receivers. Does anyone have information on what is or may soon be available in this category (the only AR option legally available in California). It would be great if someone could design some sort of a flattop receiver that allowed loading without having to push out the pin and tip the barrel forward (something like the Canadian/CA-legal FALs). Doug


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Год издания: 2001
Издатель: Penguin Books Ltd.
Количество страниц: 358
Формат: 130x195
В продаже с 18.01.2012
Как только книга Buddha's Little Finger станет доступна для заказа в одном из интернет-магазинов, Вам на e-mail будет отправлено уведомление.Укажите e-mail для связи:
In his third novel, "Buddha's Little Finger", the celebrated Russian author Victor Pelevin has created an intellectually dazzling tale about identity and Russian history, as well as a spectacular elaboration of Buddhist philosophy. We first encounter Pyotr Voyd during the Russian Civil War of 1919, when, through a strange sequence of events, he finds himself serving as commissar to the legendary Bolshevik commander Chapaev. Then, inexplicably, he finds himself incarcerated in a contemporary Moscow psychiatric hospital. Who is Pyotr Voyd? And who is the Chapaev who issues maddeningly metaphysical monologues on the illusory nature of reality? A controversial bestseller in Russia, "Buddha's Little Finger" is a novel unlike any other - a work of demonic absurdism by a writer hailed by Time magazine as a "psychedelic Nabokov for the cyber-age."