text:
The effect of the increase in the monetary base on Japan s economy at zero interest rates: an empirical analysis 1
- Sharleen George
- 1 years ago
- Views:
1 The effec of he icrease i he moeary base o Japa s ecoomy a zero ieres raes: a empirical aalysis 1 Takeshi Kimura, Hiroshi Kobayashi, Ju Muraaga ad Hiroshi Ugai, 2 Bak of Japa Absrac I his paper, we quaify he effec of he so-called quaiaive moeary easig which he Bak of Japa adoped i March Now ha shor-erm ieres raes are almos zero ad moeary base growh is over 20% year o year, acive debae coiues wih respec o he effeciveess of moeary policy a zero ieres raes. Takig io accou he regime chage i moeary policy ad he possible o-lieariy of moey demad a low (or ear zero) ieres raes, we use a Bayesia vecor auoregressio (VAR), a VAR wih ime-varyig coefficies, o exrac he effec of he icrease i he moeary base a zero ieres raes. The resul of a Bayesia VAR idicaes ha while a icrease i he moeary base previously had a posiive impac o prices, i does o ow a zero ieres raes. I order o ivesigae he possible reaso for his resul, we he esimae a moey demad fucio, ad es wheher a saiaio level i demad for he moeary base exiss a zero ieres raes. The key fidig here is ha he ull hypohesis of he o-exisece of he saiaio level ca be saisically rejeced. This meas ha here may remai room for a icrease i he moeary base o simulae he ecoomy a zero ieres raes. Despie he exisece of he saiaio level of moey demad, why does he Bayesia VAR resul sugges ha a icrease i he moeary base does o have a posiive impac o ecoomic aciviy a zero ieres raes? Oe cosise ierpreaio of hese wo resuls is ha he effec, if ay, of he icrease i he moeary base is highly ucerai ad very small. We cofirm his view by esimaig models ha iclude boh aggregae demad ad aggregae supply fucios ad esig wheher he moeary base eers hese equaios sigificaly. Fially, we discuss reasos why he expasio of he moeary base a zero ieres raes has such a limied ad ucerai effec o he ecoomy. 1. Iroducio O 19 March 2001, he Bak of Japa iroduced ew procedures for moey marke operaios uder which he ousadig balace of curre accous held a he Bak, isead of he overigh call rae, is used as he mai operaig arge. The chage i he operaig arge was closely relaed o he fac ha he overigh call rae had almos reached a zero boud ad he Bak sill eeded o ease moeary policy o comba persise deflaioary pressure. The arge level of he ousadig balace of curre accous held a he Bak exceeded he acual amou of February A he same ime, he Bak decided ha he ew procedures for moey marke operaios should remai i place uil he cosumer price idex (CPI) (excludig perishables; aiowide) regisered sably a zero per ce or a icrease year o year. The Bak also decided o icrease he ourigh purchase of log-erm goverme bods if i cosidered his ecessary o smoohly provide liquidiy. Furhermore, he Bak 1 2 We are graeful for helpful discussios ad commes from Sefa Gerlach, Keeh Kuer, Edward Nelso, Carl Walsh ad Michael Woodford, as well as paricipas a he Auum 2002 Ceral Bak Ecoomiss Meeig held by he Bak for Ieraioal Selemes. We would also like o hak may saff members of he Bak of Japa for heir commes o a earlier draf ad Saori Sao for her excelle research assisace. Ay remaiig errors are our ow. The views expressed herei are hose of he auhors aloe ad o ecessarily hose of he Bak of Japa. All he auhors belog o he Policy Research Divisio (Policy Plaig Office) a he Bak of Japa. addresses: ad 276 BIS Papers No 19
2 esablished a so-called lombard-ype ledig faciliy ha eables fiacial isiuios, uder cerai codiios, o borrow fuds from he Bak a he official discou rae as log as hey have eligible collaeral. This eire policy regime is ofe referred o as quaiaive moeary easig measures. The ew policy regime was iroduced o explore he possibiliy of furher moeary easig eve afer shor-erm ieres raes had falle o zero. The Bak of Japa pursued his policy, while cocurrely examiig he followig effecs heoreically assumed o Japa s ecoomy. Firs, lower ieres raes would sill have a simulaive impac o he ecoomy. I his regard, he aouceme ha he ew policy regime should be maiaied uil CPI iflaio becomes zero or more was ieded o iduce maximum effecs from a raher limied call rae cu o loger-erm raes. Secod, he abuda provisio of liquidiy would make moey marke paricipas feel more secure abou he availabiliy of fuds, hereby preservig fiacial marke sabiliy. Third, a icrease i reserves migh ivie liquidiy saiaio ad, cosequely, somehow iduce porfolio shifs i fiacial asses, resulig i, for example, a rise i sock prices, depreciaio of he ye, or credi expasio. Fourh, decisive moeary policy messages suppored by a icrease i reserves migh have some posiive effecs o expecaios held by corporaios ad households wih respec o he fuure course of he ecoomy ad prices. Oe ad a half years have passed sice he Bak iroduced his ew policy regime. Based o experieces ad relaed daa so far, we aalyse he effecs of quaiaive moeary easig measures a zero ieres raes ad ry o make a eaive evaluaio. The res of he paper proceeds as follows. We begi i Secio 2 by surveyig rece developmes i moeary policy ad he observed reacios of fiacial idicaors. I Secio 3 we survey he rasmissio mechaism of moeary policy a zero ieres raes from a heoreical viewpoi. I Secio 4, akig io accou he regime chage i moeary policy ad he possible o-lieariy of moey demad a low (or ear zero) ieres raes, we use a Bayesia VAR, a VAR wih ime-varyig coefficies, o exrac he effecs of he icrease i he moeary base. I Secio 5, we ivesigae wheher a saiaio level of moey demad exiss a zero ieres raes by esimaig a moey demad fucio. I Secio 6, we he esimae models ha iclude boh aggregae demad ad aggregae supply fucios ad examie wheher he moeary base eers hese equaios sigificaly. I Secio 7, we discuss reasos why he expasio of he moeary base a zero ieres raes has a limied ad ucerai effec o he ecoomy. Secio 8 preses cocludig remarks. 2. Rece developmes i moeary policy i Japa ad he reacio of fiacial idicaors The collapse of asse prices i he early 1990s was he begiig of a log ecoomic slump i Japa, which is characerised as several deep cyclical dowurs wih some modes shor-lived ecoomic recovery. There is a cosesus amog policymakers ad ecoomiss ha oe of he basic srucural problems Japa s ecoomy has faced is he o-performig loa (heceforh NPL) problem of he bakig secor. The impaired balace shee of he bakig secor has preveed he rasmissio mechaism of moeary policy from workig smoohly, hereby dampeig he fiacial ad ecoomic resposes o moeary policy easig. As early as 1995, he Bak of Japa had lile room for furher reducig ieres raes. The Bak maiaied he ucollaeralised overigh call rae as low as aroud 0.5% despie he fac ha Japa s ecoomy recovered a a more ha 3% growh rae of GDP from 1995 o I auum 1997, Japa s ecoomy sared o deeriorae, largely uder he ifluece of fiacial sysem disurbace reflecig he failure of large fiacial isiuios. The Bak successively lowered he overigh call rae o 0.02% i February The period bewee 1999 ad 2000 is ofe called he zero ieres rae period. I Augus 2000, he Bak lifed is zero ieres rae policy ad raised he overigh call rae o 0.25%, sice he ecoomy was showig clear sigs of coiued recovery. However, i lae 2000, he ecoomy sared o deeriorae agai, reflecig adjusme of global IT ad relaed expors, ad cocer over deflaio iesified. The Bak lowered he policy ieres rae oe las ime o 0.15% ad he adoped quaiaive moeary easig i March I sum, while he NPL problem of he bakig secor has bee a serious facor weakeig he effecs of accommodaive moeary policy, he zero boud of ieres raes has become a ever more iracable issue from he viewpoi of moeary policy formulaio. BIS Papers No
3 Tha was he backgroud leadig o he Bak of Japa s decisio o fially discard he orhodox operaig framework ad adop a ew framework uder which i se he ousadig balace of curre accous a he Bak, isead of he ucollaeralised overigh call rae, as he mai operaig arge. Whe he Bak adoped his ew regime, i raised he arge level of he curre accou balace o aroud JPY 5 rillio (March 2001), abou JPY 1 rillio larger ha ha immediaely prevailig before he chage (Graph 1). Afer ha, i raised he arge level o aroud JPY 6 rillio (Augus 2001), more ha JPY 6 rillio (Sepember), ad JPY 10 o 15 rillio (December). Also, o 28 February 2002, o secure fiacial marke sabiliy owards he fiscal year-ed, he Bak decided o provide more liquidiy o mee a surge i demad irrespecive of he arge of curre accou balaces, aroud JPY 10 o 15 rillio. Jus before he year-ed, he Bak provided a maximum JPY 27 rillio, ad, followig his year-ed requireme, he curre accou balace has bee ruig aroud JPY 15 rillio. Graph 1 Curre accou balaces a he Bak of Japa I rillios of ye Curre accou balaces a he Bak held by isiuios o subjec o reserve requiremes Excess reserves Required reserves CY Zero ieres rae policy period Quaiaive easig period Noe: Each moh idicaes a reserve maieace period (from he 16h of oe moh o he 15h of he followig moh). Source: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad Ecoomic Saisics Mohly. Meawhile, i order o smoohly provide liquidiy, he Bak icreased is ourigh purchases of logerm goverme bods from JPY 400 billio o JPY 600 billio per moh i Augus 2001, ad hereafer o JPY 800 billio i December, ad furher o JPY 1 rillio i February Afer adopig quaiaive easig, he growh rae of he moeary base sared o markedly rise from he secod half of 2001, reachig some 30% year o year i March-April 2002, he highes rise sice he firs oil shock i he 1970s (Graph 2). This has refleced he Bak s ample provisio of reserves 3 I Ocober 2002, he Bak of Japa decided o aim a a ousadig balace of curre accous held a he Bak of aroud JPY 15 o 20 rillio, ad o icrease is ourigh purchases of log-erm goverme bods from JPY 1 rillio o JPY 1.2 rillio per moh. 278 BIS Papers No 19
4 Graph 2 Moey, prices ad oupu Aual perceage chages (1) Moeary base, M2+CDs, ledig M2+CDs Moeary base -4-8 CY Ledig by domesic commercial baks CPI (2) CPI, GDP deflaor, real GDP Real GDP -1-2 GDP deflaor -3 CY Noe: CPI, GDP deflaor ad real GDP are adjused o exclude he effecs of he cosumpio ax hike i April Sources: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly, Pricipal figures of fiacial isiuios; Miisry of Public Maageme, Home Affairs, Poss ad Telecommuicaios, Cosumer price idex; Cabie Office, Naioal accous. BIS Papers No
5 Graph 3 Call raes (overigh) I perceages CY CY Source: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly. 280 BIS Papers No 19
6 Graph 4 Forward raes of goverme bod yields I perceages Call raes (overigh, ucollaeralised) 1-year forward raes sarig 1 year laer 1-year forward raes sarig 2 years laer 1-year forward raes sarig 3 years laer 10-years remaiig mauriy CY Source: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly. ad he icrease i demad for cash caused by he declie i he opporuiy cos of holdig moey. As a resul, he raio of he moeary base o omial GDP has icreased o 17%, he highes figure sice he Secod World War period. While he moeary base has posed double digi perceage growh year o year, wha has bee he reacio of fiacial markes sice quaiaive easig was adoped? 4 Firs of all, amid he uprecedeed abuda supply of liquidiy, o surprisigly he ucollaeralised overigh call rae was furher lowered o 1 or 2%, lierally almos zero (Graph 3). Aoher eleme of he ew policy regime is a commime o coiue i uil uderlyig CPI iflaio urs posiive. Currely i Japa, give ecoomic weakess ad persise dowward pressure o prices, mos marke paricipas do o see CPI iflaio urig posiive ay ime soo. Reflecig such a expecaio, he decisive easig sace of he Bak of Japa exered some dowward effec o medium-erm forward ieres raes (Graph 4). Secod, as he parial removal of blake deposi isurace (for ime ad savigs deposis, ec) approached, shifs from ime ad savigs deposis o liquid deposis, ad deposi shifs amog fiacial isiuios were widely see uil he ed of fiscal 2001 (Graph 5). However, he subsaial provisio of reserves by he Bak succeeded i dispellig he liquidiy cocers of fiacial isiuios a he ed of he fiscal year. Graph 6 shows he premium o he implied forward euroye rae seppig over he ed of he fiscal year, providig evidece of his siuaio. Third, a curre accou balace icrease does o seem o have a srog effec o he corporae fiacig evirome i capial markes such as he corporae bod ad commercial paper (CP) 4 See Shirakawa (2002) for deails. BIS Papers No
7 Graph 5 Deposis of domesically licesed baks Aual perceage chages Ciy baks Regioal baks Regioal baks 2 Shiki baks CY Source: Bak of Japa, Ecoomic ad fiacial daa o CD-ROM. 0.5 Graph 6 Premium of euroye raes maurig beyod he ed of he fiscal year I perceage pois Maurig beyod he ed of FY 1998 Maurig beyod he ed of FY 1999 Maurig beyod he ed of FY 2000 Maurig beyod he ed of FY May 31 May 30 Ju 30 Jul 29 Aug 28 Sep 28 Oc 27 Nov 27 Dec 26 Ja 25 Feb Noe: Premium here is he rae icrease i fudig liquidiy whe he mauriy seps over he ed of he fiscal year. Premium = (implied forward raes from March o April) (oe moh implied forward raes whose coracs expire wihi he same fiscal year : average of hose from February o March ad hose from April o May). Source: Japaese Bakers Associaio. 282 BIS Papers No 19
8 Graph 7 Yield spreads of corporae ad public bods I perceage pois (1) Yields o corporae bod less yields o goverme securiy Ba Baa A Aa Ju 97 Sep 97 Dec 97 Mar 98 Ju 98 Sep 98 Dec 98 Mar 99 Ju 99 Sep 99 Dec 99 Noe: Yields o bods wih five-year mauriy. The idicaed raigs are Moody s. Mar 00 Ju 00 Sep 00 Dec 00 Mar 01 Ju 01 Sep 01 Dec 01 Mar 02 Ju 02 Source: Japa Securiies Dealers Associaio, Over-he-couer sadard bod quoaios, Referece price (yields) able for OTC bod rasacios (2) Yields o CP less yields o fiacig bills CY Noe: Yields o FB uil March 1999 are replaced wih yields o TB. Source: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly. BIS Papers No
9 markes. Facig he weakeig role of baks as fiacial iermediaries, ehacig he fucio of capial markes could be a impora roue for moeary easig. I his regard, he corporae fiacig evirome has parly improved. The differeial (credi spread) bewee ieres raes o corporae bods ad CP ad yields o risk-free goverme bods declied margially afer March I should be oed, however, ha firms which reap he beefis of moeary easig effecs are limied o hose wih high credi raigs. The effecs have o fully permeaed hrough o firms wih low credi raigs ad hose uable o access capial markes. Credi spreads o low-grade corporae bods have bee risig sice Ocober 2001, because ivesors have become more coscious of credi risk. Fourh, he prices of oher fiacial asses do o seem o be respodig o quaiaive easig. From March 2001, equiy prices emporarily rose uil aroud May because of he aicipaed favourable impac of srucural reform, bu declied hereafer due o a deerioraio i he ecoomic oulook (Graph 8). Afer a shor recovery from March 2002, equiy prices gradually declied agai, maily reflecig he pluge i US equiy prices. While equiy price flucuaios reflec various facors, he mos impora facor seems o be prospecs for ecoomic fudameals, o a icrease i he moeary base. As for foreig exchage raes, he ye rae agais he dollar mosly moved i he lower 120s bu emporarily rose o 116 i Sepember 2001 (Graph 9). The ye depreciaed rapidly from November 2001 uil February This seems o be aribuable o o moeary easig bu raher o a chage i he ecoomic oulook, as ypically refleced i Japa s equiy prices; while expecaios for recovery of he US ecoomy sregheed, uceraiy over prospecs for Japa s ecoomy iesified, icludig fiacial sysem sabiliy. Thereafer, reflecig he pluge i US equiy prices, he ye appreciaed agai o he 115 level i July 2002, ad has recely see lile chage aroud 120. So far, i is o clear wheher he exchage rae ad moeary base appear o move i a same way. Graph 8 Equiy prices ad he moeary base 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 CY TOPIX (1968 = 100; lhs) Moeary base (aual perceage chage; rhs) (2) 02 Sources: Tokyo Sock Exchage, Mohly saisics repor; Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly. Fially, as for credi ad broad moey idicaors, bak ledig has kep decreasig, while he growh rae of M2+CDs has bee sable a aroud 3% (Graph 2). The declie i bak ledig ad moderae growh i deposis should resul i a icrease i some oher ivesmes. So far, baks have icreased ivesme i goverme bods ad Bak of Japa curre accous, boh of which are free of credi risks. 284 BIS Papers No 19
10 I sum, a firs sigh moeary ad fiacial idicaors provide o clear evidece ha quaiaive easig has produced discerible effecs wih some excepios a zero shor-erm ieres raes. However, i order o judge carefully he full effecs of quaiaive easig, we eed o evaluae hem quaiaively by coducig empirical aalyses based o ecoomic heory. Graph 9 Exchage rae ad he moeary base CY Ye depreciaio Ye appreciaio JPY/USD (lhs) Moeary base (aual perceage charge; rhs) Source: Bak of Japa, Fiacial ad ecoomic saisics mohly. 3. Moeary policy rasmissio a zero ieres raes 3.1 Moeary base chael The ieres rae chael is he primary mechaism i coveioal Keyesia macroecoomic models, which works hrough he chage i he shor-erm ieres rae. If his were he oly chael, he ecoomy would be uder a liquidiy rap whe he shor-erm ieres rae is zero. 5 However, moeariss criicise such a Keyesia view sayig ha coveioal macroecoomic models sigificaly oversimplify he srucure of he ecoomy. I he radiioal moearis accou, for a full liquidiy rap o be effecive, he composie asse - moey plus bills - mus be a perfec subsiue for all oher asses (Melzer (1999a)). I pracice, however, moey is a imperfec subsiue for a wide rage of fiacial ad real asses, icludig log-erm bods, corporae bods, equiies, foreig fiacial asses, physical capial, ad durable goods. 6 A chage i moeary policy iduces a rebalacig of porfolios i geeral, affecig omial demad boh hrough wealh ad subsiuio effecs o real asses, ad hrough adjusmes i a wide rage of fiacial yields releva o expediure decisios. From a heoreical viewpoi, eve a zero ieres raes he chage i he moeary base is expeced o cause his rebalacig effec hrough he followig chaels. 5 6 A liquidiy rap was suggesed by Keyes i he Geeral Theory ad revived recely by Krugma (1998, 1999). Some represeaive quoes of moeariss views: Melzer (1999b): Moeary policy works by chagig relaive prices. There are may, may such prices. Some ecoomiss erroeously believe [ ] moeary policy works oly by chagig a sigle shor-erm ieres rae. Friedma ad Schwarz (1982, pp 57-8): Keyesias regard a chage i he quaiy of moey as affecig i he firs isace he ieres rae, ierpreed as a marke rae o a fairly arrow class of fiacial liabiliies [ ]. We isis ha a far wider rage of markeable asses ad ieres raes mus be ake io accou [ ]. [We] ierpre he rasmissio mechaism i erms of relaive price adjusme over a broad area raher ha i erms of arrowly defied ieres raes. BIS Papers No
11 The firs chael is a relaive asse supply effec. A ope marke operaio by a ceral bak causes a opposie chage i he socks of he moeary base ad securiies held by baks, firms or households. Sice he moeary base is o a perfec subsiue for various oher asses, chages i he ousadig balace of he moeary base due o moeary policy may lead o chages i he relaive prices of asses. This relaive asse supply effec ca be realised by chages i he risk premium of asse prices. For example, Melzer (2001) ad McCallum (2000) argue ha moeary auhoriies ca use he moeary base o egieer exchage rae depreciaio eve whe shor-erm omial ieres raes are zero. Implicily, hey view he risk premium i he ucovered ieres pariy relaioship as subjec o moeary policy maipulaio i he shor ru. 7 The risk premium ca also be reduced by he secod chael, which would work hrough he reducio of rasacio coss by providig ample moey. 8 The fricios which moey helps o overcome i fiacial markes are relaed o is role i providig liquidiy services. Whe ecoomic ages aicipae a liquidiy shorage regardig heir fuure reveues, hey will boos demad for liquid asses o avoid borrowig due o cash flow cosrais. Such asse demad i preparaio for a liquidiy shorage leads o he higher evaluaio of liquid asses. Tha is, liquidiy demad migh subsaially raise he raes of illiquid asses relaive o hose of liquid asses due o a liquidiy premium. 9 I such circumsaces, he icrease i moey will reduce he probabiliy of liquidiy shorage, ad cosequely affec he liquidiy premium ad relaive asse reurs. The relief from cocer over he liquidiy of fiacial isiuios, meioed above uder he secod poi of he reacio of fiacial markes (p 6), ca be udersood as such a example (Graph 6). From a differe perspecive, i migh be expeced ha ivesors ake risks more because of a decrease i he liquidiy risk premium. Fiacial isiuios migh be cadidaes for such ivesors, ad if hey chaged heir aiude o ledig, i would have a posiive impac o aggregae demad. I his way, recogisig he role of moey i reducig fiacial fricios may provide a more sigifica role for moey i he rasmissio mechaism. The expecaio effec is aoher chael. A ceral bak ca lower loger-erm ieres raes eve whe shor-erm raes are zero. Because loger-erm raes are formed as averages of expeced shor-erm raes plus some risk premium over heir mauriy, commiig o maiaiig he zero ieres rae policy loger will lower expeced fuure shor-erm ieres raes. As he sregh of his chael relies o he expecaio of firms ad households wih respec o fuure moeary operaios of he ceral bak, curre chages i marke operaio, realised as a icrease i he moeary base, may be expeced o ehace he credibiliy of he ceral bak. 10 If his coribued o dimiishig uceraiy over fuure shor-erm ieres raes, he erm premium would be reduced ad hece loger-erm raes would be lowered furher. The above-meioed declie i medium-erm forward raes i Japa ca be regarded as a ypical example (Graph 4). I should be oed, however, ha his expecaio effec ca also be classified as par of ieres rae chaels wih loger-erm mauriies. As a variey of logic argues a variey of chaels, i is difficul o crysallise all io a simple chael. Hereafer, his paper eaively calls hem he moeary base chael. As meioed above, he moeary base chael depeds o various chages i yields (or relaive prices), raher ha moey per se. 11 Melzer (1995, 1999a) argues ha a measure of moeary codiios based o real moey However, empirical sudies seem o have cocluded i geeral ha chages i he relaive supply of dollar ad foreig currecy bods have lile or o lasig impac o exchage raes. I addiio, alhough may useful sudies have aemped o measure he degree of subsiuabiliy bewee dollar ad foreig currecy bods, here are sill o geerally acceped esimaes of hese crucial parameers. These fidigs sugges ha porfolio rebalacig effecs o he exchage rae are probably egligible for small o medium-sized chages i he relaive quaiies of dollar ad foreig currecy bods. Of course, hey do o preclude he possibiliy ha he Bak of Japa could cause a depreciaio of he ye eve a he zero boud. However, very large purchases of foreig currecy bods would be required o achieve a sigifica resul. See, for example, Kig (1999, 2002). Saio ad Shirasuka (2001) poi ou ha Japa s fiacial isiuios faced severe liquidiy cosrais durig he fiacial crises ha occurred i 1997 ad 1998, ad ha he serious liquidiy cosrai prevailig i he bakig secor resuled i depressed loa aciviies, limied arbiragig, ad poor dealig amog fiacial markes. See, for example, Meyer (2001). There is aoher view ha focuses o moey per se: he real balace effec (Pigou (1943)). However, he moeary base, amely ouside moey, accous for oly a very small fracio of fiacial wealh i developed couries. So he quaiaive impac of he real balace effec is ieviably small. 286 BIS Papers No 19
12 sock ca be regarded as a beer summary of he various chages i yields ha a measure based o a specific real ieres rae. Oe reaso he offers for his is ha moey demad migh, like aggregae demad, be a fucio of may ieres raes, as i Friedma (1956). 3.2 Review of he lieraure o empirical aalyses Whe he moeary base chael works ad he real moey sock serves as a beer summary of he various chages i yields releva for ecoomic aciviies, he moeary base eers he aggregae demad equaio for a give shor-erm ieres rae. Tha is, moey could play a role i srucural equaios for aggregae demad, or i VARs, as a proxy for chaels which are o summarised by he real ieres rae o shor-erm securiies. Koeig (1990) ad Melzer (1999a) show ha real moey growh is a sigifica deermia of cosumpio growh i he Uied Saes, corollig for he shor-erm real ieres rae. Nelso (2000) also shows ha he same propery of base moey holds for oal oupu (relaive o red or poeial) i boh he Uied Saes ad he Uied Kigdom. However, do hese aalyses idicae ha he moeary base chael works a zero ieres raes? While ecoomeric models ha are esimaed usig daa from ormal periods whe he ecoomy operaes safely away from he zero boud ca provide useful esimaes of moeary rasmissio hrough he ieres rae chael, hey are ulikely o capure he effecs of he moeary base chael ha may remai operaive whe omial ieres raes are cosraied a zero wih cosiderable precisio. Takig his poi io accou, we cao ecessarily regard he empirical aalyses of Koeig (1990), Melzer (1999a) ad Nelso (2000) as evidece of he exisece of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes, sice heir aalyses do o iclude ay samples from he zero ieres rae period. As for Japa s case, Baig (2002), usig he VAR based o he daa from 1980 o 2001, shows ha expasio of he moeary base has posiive effecs o boh price ad oupu eve wih he ieres rae icluded i he VAR as a separae variable. The, Baig (2002) argues ha Japa s daa suppor he exisece of he moeary base chael eve a zero ieres raes. However, we have o examie wheher his aalysis really idicaes he effeciveess of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes i Japa. Alhough Baig (2002) uses Japa s daa icludig he sample period of zero ieres raes, his aalysis is based o a VAR model which does o allow for ime-varyig parameers. I oher words, his empirical resuls do o reflec he effec of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes, bu he average effec of ha chael durig he whole sample period. This is a problem which arises from usig a log sample which icludes differe policy regimes. Therefore, we cao ecessarily recogise ha he aalysis of Baig (2002) suggess he effeciveess of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes i Japa. Ideed, he resuls of Baig (2002) do o seem o be cosise wih Japa s rece ecoomic performace. Alhough he growh rae of he moeary base has remaied very high for several years, deflaio persiss i he ecoomy, albei a low raes (Graph 2). If his resuls were righ, deflaio would have sopped. Needless o say, moey affecs he ecoomy wih log ad variable lags. We may have o wai jus a bi loger. However, he usual rage for he lag i he effecs of moeary policy o he ecoomy lies somewhere bewee half a year ad approximaely wo years. Cosequely, we seem o be wiessig somehig very uusual i he relaioship bewee moey ad he ecoomy. 4. Empirical aalyses based o a ime-varyig VAR I he previous secio, we poied ou he problem regardig he empirical mehod of ivesigaig he effec of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes. We should o exrac he average effec of he moeary base chael durig a log sample period, bu ha reflecig he sample period of zero ieres raes oly. A Bayesia VAR, a VAR wih ime-varyig coefficies, is oe way o solve his problem. 12 Usig a ime-varyig VAR, we allow for possible chages i he ieres rae elasiciy of moey demad ad chages i he rasmissio mechaism a (ear) zero ieres raes. Sice he 12 See Doa e al (1984) for deails of a Bayesia VAR. BIS Papers No
13 Bak of Japa has faced he zero ieres rae boud, is policy reacio fucio has clearly chaged. The regime chage i moeary policy, from ieres rae argeig o quaiaive easig, will brig shifs i he resposiveess of ecoomic aciviy o he icrease i he moeary base. A ime-varyig VAR ca capure hese chages i ecoomic srucure ad leads o impulse respose fucios ha vary over ime. 4.1 VAR Before esimaig a ime-varyig VAR, we begi by esimaig a VAR as a bechmark, usig Japa s quarerly daa over he sample period 1980:Q1-2002:Q1. The sample period is chose o be he same as ha i Baig (2002). The specific VAR ha we cosider coais four variables: iflaio rae, oupu gap, moeary base (growh rae) ad overigh call rae. 13, 14 Clearly, his VAR provides a very simple or simplisic descripio of he ecoomy, bu i coais a leas he miimum se of variables ha are crucial for ay discussio of moeary policy. 15 We iclude four lags i he VAR accordig o AIC. The VAR is ideified by usig he Cholesky decomposiio, wih he order beig iflaio, oupu gap, ieres rae ad moeary base. The choice of orderig is made, accordig o Baig (2002), o he basis of he speed wih which he variables respod o shocks, ie iflaio is assumed o respod las, ad he moeary base o be he mos resposive. Graph 10 displays impulse respose fucios based o he esimaed VAR. The basic resuls are he same as hose of Baig. Tha is, boh iflaio ad he oupu gap respod posiively o iovaios i he moeary base. Alhough hese resposes are o saisically sigifica, usig a loger sample period, 1971:Q2-2002:Q1, resuls i a sigifica respose (Graph 11). 16 As oed earlier, however, his resul does o reflec he effec of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes, bu he average effec of he chael durig he whole sample period. I ca be guessed ha he experieces of he 1970s coribued o his resul. Therefore, i is o ecessarily appropriae o regard he resuls based o he VAR as evidece of he exisece of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes. 4.2 Time-varyig VAR Now, we esimae a ime-varyig VAR o properly aalyse he effecs of he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes. Wrie he jh equaio i a VAR as: = (1) x, j X 1 β, j + u, j where x,j is a jh edogeous variable, X 1 is a vecor of lagged variables, ad u,j is a error erm. β, j is a vecor of ime-depede parameers ad is assumed o follow a radom walk process. β, j is updaed accordig o a Kalma filer algorihm, based o a prior disribuio o he iiial value of a parameer vecor β 0, j. 17 Sice β, j is ime-depede, he impulse respose fucios vary over ime. We focus o he impulse respose fucios a 1985:Q2 ad hose a 2002:Q1. The former fucios are based o he parameer β 1985:Q2, while he laer are based o he parameer β 2002:Q1. These parameers are esimaed by a Kalma filer over sample periods 1971:Q2-1985:Q2 ad 1985:Q3-2002:Q1, respecively. The parameer β 1985:Q2 reflecs he propagaio mechaism of he period jus See he daa appedix for a deailed descripio of he daa. To check he robusess of our resuls, we have re-esimaed he VAR by replacig oupu gap wih oupu growh. While we repor oly he resuls obaied from he VAR wih oupu gap, he VAR wih oupu growh yields very similar resuls. To limi he exe of a price puzzle (see Sims (1992), Chari e al (1995) ad Berake ad Mihov (1998)), we re-esimae he VAR icludig commodiy price iflaio (or he wholesale price idex), bu he mai resuls do o chage. The origial available daa se rus from 1970:Q1 o 2002:Q1. Because of daa rasformaio (firs differeces ad lags), he aalysis is performed o he 1971:Q2-2002:Q1 period. We se he hyperparameers of prior disribuio a he values which Doa e al (1984) recommed for a ypical ecoomic ime series. To check he robusess of our resuls, we re-esimaed he ime-varyig VAR based o he opimised hyperparameers. While we repor oly he resuls obaied from he ime-varyig VAR wih he hyperparameers which Doa e al (1984) recommed, he ime-varyig VAR wih he opimised hyperparameers yields very similar resuls. 288 BIS Papers No 19
14 BIS Papers No Graph 10 Impulse respose fucios based o VAR (sample period: 1980:Q1-2002:Q1) Y: oupu gap ON: ucollaeralised overigh call rae (level) P: iflaio rae MB: moeary base (growh rae) Respose of P o P Respose of P o Y Respose of P o ON Respose of P o MB Respose of Y o P Respose of Y o Y Respose of Y o ON Respose of Y o MB Respose of ON o P Quarers Quarers Quarers Quarers Noe: The graph shows a 16-quarer respose of variables o a oe sadard deviaio iovaio. The dashed lies represe ± 2 sadard deviaio bads Respose of ON o Y Respose of ON o ON Respose of ON o MB Respose of MB o P Respose of MB o Y Respose of MB o ON Respose of MB o MB
15 290 BIS Papers No Respose of P o P Respose of P o Y Respose of P o ON Respose of P o MB Graph 11 Impulse respose fucios based o VAR (sample period: 1971:Q2-2002:Q1) Y: oupu gap ON: ucollaeralised overigh call rae (level) P: iflaio rae MB: moeary base (growh rae) Respose of Y o P Respose of Y o Y Respose of Y o ON Respose of Y o MB Respose of ON o P Respose of ON o Y Respose of ON o ON Respose of ON o MB Respose of MB o P Respose of MB o Y Respose of MB o ON Quarers Quarers Quarers Quarers Respose of MB o MB Noe: The graph shows a 16-quarer respose of variables o a oe sadard deviaio iovaio. The dashed lies represe ± 2 sadard deviaio bads.
16 before he Plaza Accord, while β 2002:Q1 reflecs ha afer he adopio of quaiaive easig. The reaso why we compare he impulse respose fucios a 1985:Q2 wih hose a 2002:Q1 is ha 1985:Q2 is ear he midpoi of he whole sample period 1971:Q2-2002:Q1. I order o examie wheher he propagaio mechaism differs bewee 1985:Q2 ad 2002:Q1, we calculae he impulse resposes o he commo iovaios whose covariace marix is esimaed over he whole sample 1971:Q2-2002:Q1. 18 Tha is, sice he covariace marix of iovaios is kep cosa, he differece of he impulse respose fucios provides a measure of a chage i he propagaio mechaism i he face of uchaged disurbaces. The resul, which is show i Graph 12, is clearly differe from ha of he VAR. This graph idicaes ha he icrease i he moeary base has a posiive effec o iflaio a 1985:Q2, bu o a 2002:Q1. This fidig implies ha, beyod he ieres rae chael, he moeary rasmissio process ook place hrough he moeary base chael i he 1980s, bu such rasmissio does o work ow a zero ieres raes. This seems o reflec he rece observaio ha he high growh rae of he moeary base does o lead o a idicaio of iflaio (Graph 2). 4.3 Implici assumpio of he moeary base chael Why does he uderlyig mechaism of he moeary base chael o work well as heoreically assumed? Here, i should be oed ha he moeary base chael a zero ieres raes is based o he implici assumpio ha moey demad is saiaed a a fiie level. Tha is, whe ieres raes are zero, households ad firms become saiaed wih moey balaces, ad ay icrease i he moeary base beyod ha level leads o chages i heir porfolios wih coseque chages i relaive yields o differe fiacial ad real asses, ad direc ad idirec effecs o spedig. 19 I coras wih such a view, here is aoher view. Whe ieres raes are zero, households ad firms have a ifiiely elasic demad for moey balaces. A icrease i he moeary base is absorbed passively i higher balaces, ad here are o implicaios for broader measures of moey or demad ad oupu. Moeary policy is impoe; here is a liquidiy rap. Which view is cosise wih he resul of our aalysis? As backgroud o he resul of he imevaryig VAR, we ca se wo hypoheses: Hypohesis I: As he ieres rae eds o zero, demad for moey balaces eds o ifiiy. Therefore, moeary policy has o effec o ecoomic aciviy a zero ieres raes, because ay addiioal moey creaed is simply absorbed passively i moey holdigs. Hypohesis II: Moey demad exhibis saiaio such ha he demad is fiie a zero ieres raes. Therefore, he moeary base chael works eve a zero ieres raes, bu is effec is very small or egligible. I order o es which hypohesis is acceped, we mus esimae he moey demad fucio ad examie wheher here is a saiaio level of moey demad a zero ieres raes. 20 The ex secio deals wih his issue The shock is calculaed as follows. We firs calculae he residuals from he coefficies i each period, he he covariace marix ad make he orhogoal shock usig he Cholesky decomposiio. The orderig is chose o be he same as ha of he VAR: iflaio, oupu gap, ieres rae ad moeary base. The lag legh is also chose o be he same as ha of he VAR, ha is, four lags are icluded i he ime-varyig VAR. We mus oe ha if here are oly wo fiacial asses, moey ad bods, i he ecoomy, he exisece of a fiie saiaio level of real balaces does o mea he exisece of a moeary base chael a zero ieres raes. Moey demad is ifiiely elasic a a saiaio level i he sese ha o furher ieres rae declies are eeded o make people willig o hold larger real balaces, eve if he elasiciy of moey demad is bouded a all ieres raes greaer ha zero. For a example of a simple model i which he moeary base chael is ieffecive a a zero ieres rae, ad i which here is saiaio i real balaces a a fiie level, see he discussio of real balace effecs i Woodford (2002). Baig (2002) uses he moeary base (expressed as a raio of poeial oupu) ad he level of ieres rae i he VAR wih a fixed parameer, which implicily assumes ha here is a saiaio level of moey demad a zero ieres raes. Isead of he level of ieres raes, if a logarihmic specificaio for ieres raes is used as a variable of he VAR, i implicily assumes ha moey demad eds o ifiiy as he ieres rae eds o zero, ha is, here is o a saiaio level of moey demad a zero ieres raes. However, a cosrai abou wheher here is a saiaio level of moey demad a zero ieres raes should o be imposed o he moey demad fucio a priori, bu be esed saisically. BIS Papers No
17 292 BIS Papers No Graph 12 Impulse respose fucios based o ime-varyig VAR 2002:Q :Q2 Y: oupu gap ON: ucollaeralised overigh call rae (level) P: iflaio rae MB: moeary base (growh rae) Respose of P o P Respose of Y o P - Respose of P o Y Respose of Y o Y - Respose of P o ON Respose of Y o ON - Respose of P o MB Respose of Y o MB - Quarers Quarers Respose of ON o P - - Respose of ON o Y - - Respose of ON o ON - - Respose of ON o MB - - Quarers Respose of MB o P Respose of MB o Y Respose of MB o ON Respose of MB o MB Quarers Noe: The solid lie shows a 16-quarer respose of variables a 2002:Q1. The dashed lie shows a 16-quarer respose of variables a 1985:Q2.
18 5. Saiaio level of moey demad 5.1 Geeral moey demad fucio As i Friedma (1956), he demad for real balaces depeds o o a sigle ieres rae bu o may differe ieres raes, or, more geerally, o he prices of asses relaive o he prices of ew producio of he same asses. These relaive prices sele dow as he ecoomy adjuss o a equilibrium a which all asses sell a replaceme cos. I a full, geeral equilibrium, prices of bods ad real capial, of domesic ad foreig asses, of ew ad used houses ad auomobiles, ad may oher relaive prices, ca be usefully summarised by a sigle ieres rae. I rasiio, however, his does o hold rue, ad he demad for real balaces differs from log-ru desired real balaces. Based o such logic, Melzer (1999b) argues ha he differece bewee acual ad log-ru desired moey balaces is a measure of he excess supply of moey, he amou by which prices ad oher omial variables mus chage o resore equilibrium i markes for asses ad oupu. 21 Here, we assume ha log-ru desired real balaces ca be modelled as follows: M P γ = e Y α i 1+ i + δ β α > 0, β > 0, δ 0 where M, P, Y ad i are he moeary base, price level, real icome ad call rae, respecively. α, β, γ ad δ are parameers. I equaio (2), i is assumed ha he relaive prices of various asses ca be usefully summarised by he call rae i i he log ru. Equaio (2) is cosise wih a rasacios-ime approach ad iveory-heoreic approach o moey demad. The iveory-heoreic approach says ha maagig a iveory always requires ime, ad a larger real balace of moey ca reduce rasacio ime. A variaio of he rasaciosime approach is ha cosumpio requires shoppig ime, which ca be decreased by holdig a larger real balace. I order for he rasacios-ime approach o be cosise wih saiaio, i mus be such ha, a some posiive real balace amous, furher icreases i ha raio would o decrease rasacios-ime. 22 I should also be oed ha equaio (2) ess wo familiar moey demad fucios as special cases: he log-log fucio ad semi-log fucio. Cosider he case whe he call rae i is low eough for he approximaio i /(1 + i ) = i o be reasoable. Takig logs of equaio (2) whe δ = 0, we obai he log-log fucio: m p = αy βlog( i ) + γ (3) where all lower-case leers, excludig he ieres rae i, refer o logarihms of he variables i uppercase leers. The elasiciy of moey demad wih respec o ieres raes is a full elasiciy, which shows he perceage chage i moey demad i respose o a 1% chage i ieres raes. O he oher had, akig logs of equaio (2) whe δ > 0 ad δ >> i, we obai he semi-log fucio: 23 m p = αy βlog( i + δ) + γ i = αy βlog 1+ βlogδ + γ δ β α y i + ( γ βlogδ) δ ( Q log(1+ x) x for small The respose of moey demad o ieres rae chages is a semi-elasiciy, which idicaes he perceage chage i cash holdigs as a resul of a 1 perceage poi chage i ieres raes. x) (2) (4) A aleraive view is ha he ecoomy adjuss o reduce his gap by spedig o reduce he real balace of moey, whe real balaces are larger ha desired, or o icrease he gap by reducig spedig whe real balaces are less ha desired. This so-called real balace effec is geerally cosidered small, sice real balaces are a small par of real wealh i developed couries. See Bakhshi e al (2002) ad Wolma (1997). Whe codiio δ >> i is o saisfied, his approximaio does o hold rue eve if δ > 0. BIS Papers No
19 I equaio (2), he saiaio level of moey balaces (expressed as quasi-cambridge k) a zero omial ieres raes is: M β γ k = = δ e (5) α PY i = 0 which is fiie if δ > I coras, if δ = 0, his raio k is ifiie, which implies ha here is o saiaio level of moey demad. Regardig log-log ad semi-log moey demad fucios, he former does o have a saiaio, whereas he laer does. The figure below illusraes he moey demad curve ad he locaio of he saiaio level. i 1+ i Saiaio level: β δ e γ 0 M k = P Y α δ Wheher δ is zero or sricly posiive gives a raher differe policy implicaio. I he case of δ = 0, moeary policy would have o effec o real demad ad oupu, because ay addiioal moey creaed would simply be absorbed passively i moey holdigs. I coras, i he case of δ > 0, he moeary base chael works eve a zero ieres raes, because he creaio of moey beyod he saiaio level would be raslaed io demad for oher asses ad, ulimaely, via effecs o relaive yields, io omial spedig. 5.2 Esimaio resul Now, we esimae a moey demad fucio ad examie wheher here is a saiaio level of moey demad. Before esimaig equaio (2) ad esig he hypohesis ha here is o saiaio level (δ = 0) i equaio (2), we firs aemp o examie wheher eiher of he fucios, he log-log fucio (3) or he semi-log fucio (4), is appropriae for he log-ru desired real balace. If equaio (3) or (4) is appropriae for he log-ru demad fucio, we will fid a coiegraig relaioship amog real moey (m p ), icome (y ) ad ieres rae (i or log(i )). Usig Johase s (1988) maximum likelihood esimaio procedure, we coduc a coiegraig es over he sample period 1978:Q1-2002:Q1. The sample period is chose o avoid he high-iflaio period of he firs-roud icreases i oil prices, sice he behaviour of holdig cash balaces i he privae secor may have chaged afer rasiio o a moderae- or low-iflaio period. I addiio, he policy sace of he Bak of Japa migh also have chaged afer he firs oil shock. Ideed, i 1978, he Bak bega aoucig quarerly forecass of moey supply. 24 Here, we call M /(PY α ) quasi-cambridge k because α is o ecessarily uiy, while α is se a uiy for origial Cambridge k. 294 BIS Papers No 19
20 Table 1 shows he resuls of he maximum eigevalue ad race es saisics of he Johase es for log-log ad semi-log fucios. Boh ess sugges ha, for boh specificaios, here is o coiegraig vecor amog real moey (m p ), icome (y ) ad ieres rae (i or log(i )). This implies ha eiher he semi-log or he log-log fucio is appropriae for he log-ru moey demad fucio. A more geeral moey demad fucio is desirable; herefore esimaig equaio (2) is he ex sep. Table 1 Johase s coiegraio es (1) Series: m p, y, i Null hypohesis: rak = r Maximum eigevalue saisic Trace saisic r = (21.0) r (14.1) r (3.8) 22.7 (29.7) 9.8 (15.4) 1.0 (3.8) Null hypohesis: rak = r (2) Series: m p, y, log (i ) Maximum eigevalue saisic Trace saisic r = (21.0) r (14.1) r (3.8) 25.7 (29.7) 11.3 (15.4) 3.0 (3.8) Noes: 1. The sample period is 1978:Q1 o 2002:Q1. 2. Numbers i pareheses are criical values a he 5% sigificace level. 3. The lag legh of he VECM is se o 4, obaied from he likelihood raio es. For esimaio purposes, we rearrage equaio (2) as follows: 25 M P γ e Y γ e Y α α i 1+ i i 1+ i + δ + δ β β = e γ ( ii + δ) k β 1 = ε (6) where k M = α PY ad ii i = 1+ i 25 Whe δ > 0, we cao use Johase s (1988) maximum likelihood esimaio procedure o esimae he parameer δ i equaio (2), sice akig logs of equaio (2) does o lead o a liear sysem. BIS Papers No
Using Kalman Filter to Extract and Test for Common Stochastic Trends 1
Usig Kalma Filer o Exrac ad Tes for Commo Sochasic Treds Yoosoo Chag 2, Bibo Jiag 3 ad Joo Y. Park 4 Absrac This paper cosiders a sae space model wih iegraed lae variables. The model provides a effeciveMore information
When Two Anomalies meet: Post-Earnings-Announcement. Drift and Value-Glamour Anomaly
Whe Two Aomalies mee: Pos-Earigs-Aouceme Drif ad Value-Glamour Aomaly By Zhipeg Ya* & Ya Zhao** This Draf: Sepember 009 Absrac I his paper, we ivesigae wo promie marke aomalies documeed i he fiace ad accouigMore information
I M F S T A F F D I S C U S S I O N N O T E February 29, 2012 SDN/12/01 Two Targes, Two Insrumens: Moneary and Exchange Rae Policies in Emerging Marke Economies Jonahan D. Osry, Aish R. Ghosh, and MarcosMore information
ISBN 9984 676 20 X KONSTANTĪNS BEŅKOVSKIS IS THERE A BANK LENDING CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY IN LATVIA? EVIDENCE FROM BANK LEVEL DATA 2008 WORKING PAPER Lavias Banka, 2008 This source is o be indicaedMore information
When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?
I M F S T A F F D I S C U S S I ON N O T E When Should Public Deb Be Reduced? Jonahan D. Osry, Aish R. Ghosh, and Raphael Espinoza June 2015 SDN/15/10 When Should Public Deb Be Reduced? Prepared by JonahanMore information
The concept of potential output plays a
Wha Do We Know (And No Know) Abou Poenial Oupu? Susano Basu and John G. Fernald Poenial oupu is an imporan concep in economics. Policymakers ofen use a one-secor neoclassical model o hink abou long-runMore information
The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios
WP//6 The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios Andrew Berg, Jan Goschalk, Rafael Porillo, and Luis-Felipe Zanna 2 Inernaional Moneary Fund WP//6 IMF Working Paper Research Deparmen TheMore information
Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon? Abstract
Exchange Rae Pass-Through ino Impor Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon? Absrac Exchange rae regime opimaliy, as well as moneary policy effeciveness, depends on he ighness of he link beween exchange raeMore information
Does Britain or the United States Have the Right Gasoline Tax?
Does Briain or he Unied Saes Have he Righ Gasoline Tax? Ian W.H. Parry and Kenneh A. Small March 2002 (rev. Sep. 2004) Discussion Paper 02 12 rev. Resources for he uure 1616 P Sree, NW Washingon, D.C.More information
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. International Finance Discussion Papers. Number 1003. July 2010
Board of Governors of he Federal Reserve Sysem Inernaional Finance Discussion Papers Number 3 July 2 Is There a Fiscal Free Lunch in a Liquidiy Trap? Chrisopher J. Erceg and Jesper Lindé NOTE: InernaionalMore information
Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?*
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Research Deparmen Saff Repor 453 November 2010 Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico No Generaed Growh?* Timohy J. Kehoe Universiy of Minnesoa, Federal Reserve Bank ofMore information
Follow the Leader If You Can, Hedge If You Must
Journal of Machine Learning Research 15 (2014) 1281-1316 Submied 1/13; Revised 1/14; Published 4/14 Follow he Leader If You Can, Hedge If You Mus Seven de Rooij email@example.com VU Universiy andMore information
The Simple Analytics of Helicopter Money: Why It Works Always
Vol. 8, 2014-28 Augus 21, 2014 hp://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-28 The Simple Analyics of Helicoper Money: Why I Works Always Willem H. Buier Absrac The auhor proides a rigorous analysisMore information
No One Benefits. How teacher pension systems are failing BOTH teachers and taxpayers
No Oe Beefits How teacher pesio systems are failig BOTH teachers ad taxpayers Authors Kathry M. Doherty, Sadi Jacobs ad Trisha M. Madde Pricipal Fudig The Bill ad Melida Gates Foudatio ad the Joyce Foudatio.More information
ISSN 1518-3548. Working Paper Series
ISSN 58-3548 Working Paper Series Nonlinear Mechanisms of he Exchange Rae Pass-Through: A Phillips curve model wih hreshold for Brazil Arnildo da Silva Correa and André Minella November, 006 ISSN 58-3548More information
Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks
America Ecoomic Review 2015, 105(2): 564 608 http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130456 Systemic Risk ad Stability i Fiacial Networks By Daro Acemoglu, Asuma Ozdaglar, ad Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi * This paperMore information
OUT-OF-BAG ESTIMATION. Leo Breiman* Statistics Department University of California Berkeley, CA. 94708 firstname.lastname@example.com
1 OUT-OF-BAG ESTIMATION Leo Breiman* Saisics Deparmen Universiy of California Berkeley, CA. 94708 firstname.lastname@example.com Absrac In bagging, predicors are consruced using boosrap samples from he raining seMore information
Spin-out Companies. A Researcher s Guide
Spi-out Compaies A Researcher s Guide Cotets Itroductio 2 Sectio 1 Why create a spi-out compay? 4 Sectio 2 Itellectual Property 10 Sectio 3 Compay Structure 15 Sectio 4 Shareholders ad Directors 19 SectioMore information
The Arithmetic of Investment Expenses
Fiacial Aalysts Joural Volume 69 Number 2 2013 CFA Istitute The Arithmetic of Ivestmet Expeses William F. Sharpe Recet regulatory chages have brought a reewed focus o the impact of ivestmet expeses o ivestorsMore information
Which Archimedean Copula is the right one?
Which Archimedean is he righ one? CPA Mario R. Melchiori Universidad Nacional del Lioral Sana Fe - Argenina Third Version Sepember 2003 Published in he YieldCurve.com e-journal (www.yieldcurve.com), OcoberMore information
How Has the Literature on Gini s Index Evolved in the Past 80 Years?
How Has the Literature o Gii s Idex Evolved i the Past 80 Years? Kua Xu Departmet of Ecoomics Dalhousie Uiversity Halifax, Nova Scotia Caada B3H 3J5 Jauary 2004 The author started this survey paper wheMore information
ThE Papers 07/02. Do sunk exporting costs differ among markets? Evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms.
ThE Papers 07/02 Deparameno de Teoría e Hisoria Económica Universidad de Granada Do sunk exporing coss differ among markes? Evidence from Spanish manufacuring firms. Blanes Crisóbal, José Vicene. UniversidadMore information
Adverse Health Care Events Reporting System: What have we learned?
Adverse Health Care Evets Reportig System: What have we leared? 5-year REVIEW Jauary 2009 For More Iformatio: Miesota Departmet of Health Divisio of Health Policy P.O. Box 64882 85 East Seveth Place, SuiteMore information
1 HOW MANY TIMES SHOULD YOU SHUFFLE A DECK OF CARDS? 1 Brad Ma Departmet of Mathematics Harvard Uiversity ABSTRACT I this paper a mathematical model of card shufflig is costructed, ad used to determieMore information
SOME GEOMETRY IN HIGH-DIMENSIONAL SPACES MATH 57A. Itroductio Our geometric ituitio is derived from three-dimesioal space. Three coordiates suffice. May objects of iterest i aalysis, however, require farMore information
Catalogue no. 62-557-XPB Your Guide to the Consumer Price Index
Catalogue o. 62-557-XPB Your Guide to the Cosumer Price Idex (Texte fraçais au verso) Statistics Caada Statistique Caada Data i may forms Statistics Caada dissemiates data i a variety of forms. I additioMore information
Improved Techniques for Grid Mapping with Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filters
1 Improved Techniques for Grid Mapping wih Rao-Blackwellized Paricle Filers Giorgio Grisei Cyrill Sachniss Wolfram Burgard Universiy of Freiburg, Dep. of Compuer Science, Georges-Köhler-Allee 79, D-79110More information
are new doctors safe to practise?
Be prepared: are ew doctors safe to practise? Cotets What we foud 02 Why we ve writte this report 04 What is preparedess ad how ca it be measured? 06 How well prepared are medical graduates? 08 How hasMore information
Turning Brownfields into Greenspaces: Examining Incentives and Barriers to Revitalization
Turig Browfields ito Greespaces: Examiig Icetives ad Barriers to Revitalizatio Juha Siikamäki Resources for the Future Kris Werstedt Virgiia Tech Uiversity Abstract This study employs iterviews, documetMore information
When the People Draw the Lines
Whe the People Draw the Lies A Examiatio of the Califoria Citizes redistrictig Commissio by Raphael J. Soeshei with Geerous Support from The James Irvie Foudatio Whe the People Draw the Lies A ExamiatioMore information


text:
Afs Equities Inc
5144 6th Ave S Birmingham, Alabama 35212
Print | Save | Directions
AboutAfs Equities Inc is located at the address 5144 6th Ave S in Birmingham, Alabama 35212.
Afs Equities Inc has an annual sales volume of 0 - 500K. .For more information contact Trava Williams, President
For maps and directions to Afs Equities Inc view the map to the right. For reviews of Afs Equities Inc see below.
People Also Viewed
One Pensacola Plaza Llc
Po Box 187 Birmingham, Alabama 35201
Orthopedic Specialists Alabama
Po Box 3 Birmingham, Alabama 35201
Anb Leasing Services
Po Box 428 Birmingham, Alabama 35201
3421 Sierra Dr Birmingham, Alabama 35216
Parham Stephen M Attorney
1901 6th Ave N Ste 2200 Birmingham, Alabama 35203
Uab Health System
2145 Bonner Way Birmingham, Alabama 35243
You must Sign in to post reviews.
0 Reviews
Key Contacts
- Trava Williams
- Phone: (205) 581-5286

subset: commoncrawl


text:
HotTub, AC, swimming, fishing, snowmobiling, ski!
From $225 / night
Description from the owner
Description from the owner
Bedrooms: 4/
Bathrooms: 2/
Sleeps: 13/
Type: House
Book this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom house in Wellston today! A total of 13 people can sleep here comfortably. This property has been booked 7 times.
Guests can enjoy a hot tub, deck, and air conditioning among other amenities offered by this rental.
Travelers are sharing their opinions on this property. It has an overall rating of 5/5 thanks to an average of 24 reviews.
Costs vary, with the average weekly rate as low as $1,090.00 to as high as $1,295.00, depending on travel dates.
The owner responds to 100% of inquiries and last updated the property's calendar 10 days ago.
Proximity to TripAdvisor's Top Wellston Attractions
Proximity to TripAdvisor's Top Wellston Attractions
Reviews (17)
Also consider
- FlipKey has rentals in over 11,000 destinations around the world:
- Michigan vacation rentals- 1,217 rentals from $99/night
- Put in Bay vacation rentals- 27 rentals from $245/night
- Hot Springs Village vacation rentals- 164 rentals from $75/night
- Mackinaw City vacation rentals- 18 rentals from $89/night
- Ossipee vacation rentals- 54 rentals from $240/night


text:
Crockpot recipes
Slow Cooker Chicken Fajitas - these are easiest chicken fajitas yet they taste AMAZING!! My new go to recipe for fajitas.
Slow Cooker Chicken Fajitas - Cooking Classy
21 Must Try Chicken Crock Pot Recipes including Cream Cheese Chicken, Stuffed Chicken Rolls, Chicken and Dumplings, Chicken, Gravy and Stuffing, Creamy Italian Chicken, Creamy Chipotle Chicken, Cream Cheese Ranch Chicken, Buffalo Chicken Sandwiches, Alfredo, Barbecue, Cilantro Lime Chicken, Salsa Chicken and more!
21 Must Try Chicken Crock Pot Recipes
Crockpot Brown Sugar Balsamic Glazed Pork Tenderloin – uses 2 lbs. pork tenderloin, 1 clove garlic, 1/4 cup balsamic vinegar, 2 tbls. soy sauce, 1/2 cup brown sugar, 1 tbls. cornstarch, 1 tsp.ground sage, 1/2 tsp. salt, and 1/4 tsp. pepper. Slow-cooks on low for 6 to 8 hours, and 1 hour before done, glaze is applied. | best stuff


text:
We invite you to participate in our Experience Improvement Program. If you give us an feedback after you finish your order, you can get a coupon
Good news! Battery can be sent via Dubai Post air mail.
LCD Screen and Digitizer Assembly for HTC Butterfly S
This goods included: LCD screen + Glass Lens (without Light Guide)
Compatible with:
HTC Butterfly S
Size: 5.0 inches
Resolution: 1920x1080 pixels
Color: Black
Version: Verizon
No comment, be sure to grab the sofa now!
Dragon-T electronic limited


text:
Toby Keith Comes Up with "Big Dog Daddy"
Following the first single "High Maintenance Woman" that holds strong in Billboard's Hot Country Songs chart, singer Toby Keith will release the album "Big Dog Daddy" on June 12.
Keith has all his sweat on this piece as he wrote most of the tracks except for two. Some of the tracks that have been revealed apart from "High Maintenance Woman" are "Love Me if You Can," "Get My Drink On" and "White Rose." His longtime contributor Scotty Emerick and Greg Wiseman again gave him assistance while Canadian songwriter wrote "White Rose" for him.
Keith will tour to support the album with his companions in 2006's Hookin' Up & Hangin' Out Tour such as Miranda Lambert and Flynnville Train. The 2007 tour that is simply dubbed "Big Dog Daddy" is fully booked on several dates. The trek begins June 21 in Birmingham, AL and ends Sept 23 in Hartford, CT.
- Mariah Carey Tells Friends That James Packer Is 'Mentally Unstable' and 'Violent'
- Britney Spears Reveals Theme of 'Slumber Party' Video
- Dakota Fanning's Parents Are Divorcing After 27 Years of Marriage
- Kevin Jonas Welcomes His Second Child With Wife Danielle
- Mariah Carey's Rep Reveals Lovers' Quarrel in Greece Leads to Her Split From James Packer
- 'Will and Grace' Revival in the Works
- Jealous Rob Kardashian Under Investigation for Threatening Blac Chyna's Alleged Lover
- 'Cormoran Strike' Series Based on J.K. Rowling's Novels Lands at HBO


text:
Dismiss Notice
Missed the live Ask the Expert event?
Not to worry. Check out the archived thread of the Q&A with Ken Hutcheson, President of U.S. Lawns, and the LawnSite community in the Franchising forum .
Response to Business Card Magnets?
Discussion in 'Lawn Mowing' started by grasssin, Dec 27, 2006.


text:
For your convenience, the same email address and password can now be used to:
Or email firstname.lastname@example.com for assistance
By Abigail Van Buren
DEAR ABBY: My boyfriend, "Doug" (24), and I (22) have been in a long-distance relationship for a year, but we were friends for a couple of years before that. »Read Full Article
Please login to post a comment.
Discussion guidelines | Privacy policy | Terms of use
Limit of 2000 characters, 2000 characters remaining


text:
Filter Results:
Publication Year
Publication Type
Key Phrase
Publication Venue
Learn More
The network delay upper-bound analysis problem is of fundamental importance to real-time applications in Network-on-Chip (NoC). In the paper, we revisit a state-of-the-art analysis model for real-time communication in wormhole NoC with priority-based preemptive arbitration and show that the model may provide pessimistic or even incorrect network delay… (More)
—Cloud Data centers aim to provide reliable, sustainable and scalable services for all kinds of applications. Resource scheduling is one of keys to cloud services. To model and evaluate different scheduling policies and algorithms, we propose FlexCloud, a flexible and scalable simulator that enables users to simulate the process of initializing cloud data… (More)
The traveling salesman problem (TSP) is one of the most challenging NP-hard problems. It has widely applications in various disciplines such as physics, biology, computer science and so forth. The best known approximation algorithm for Symmetric TSP (STSP) whose cost matrix satisfies the triangle inequality (called STSP) is Christofides algorithm which was… (More)
This paper considers online energy-efficient scheduling of virtual machines (VMs) for Cloud data centers. Each request is associated with a start-time, an end-time, a processing time and a capacity demand from a Physical Machine (PM). The goal is to schedule all of the requests non-preemptively in their start-time-end-time windows, subjecting to PM capacity… (More)
- Xiang Hu, Xiaojing Ma, Xiaoping Pan, Yuqi Luo, Yiting Xu, Qin Xiong +2 others
- Scientific reports
- 2016
Clinical investigations have indicated women have higher levels of adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (A-FABP) than men. The present study aimed to identify factors related to gender difference in serum A-FABP levels. A total of 507 participants (194 men, 132 premenopausal women, and 181 postmenopausal women) were enrolled in the present study. Serum… (More)
- Xiang Hu, Xiaojing Ma, Yuqi Luo, Yiting Xu, Qin Xiong, Xiaoping Pan +2 others
- 2016
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum vitamin D level and carotid intima-media thickness (C-IMT) in Chinese postmenopausal women. METHODS Nine hundred and twenty six Chinese postmenopausal women without carotid artery plaque or history of cardiovascular disease were selected for analysis. Measurements of serum 25… (More)
NP complete problem is one of the most challenging issues. The question of whether all problems in NP are also in P is generally considered one of the most important open questions in mathematics and theoretical computer science as it has far-reaching consequences to other problems in mathematics, computer science, biology, philosophy and cryptography.… (More)
- Yuqi Luo, Xiaojing Ma, Yaping Hao, Qin Xiong, Yiting Xu, Xiaoping Pan +2 others
- Cardiovascular diabetology
- 2015
BACKGROUND The relationship between osteocalcin and atherosclerosis remains unclear. This might be due to different degrees of confounding from factors that are associated with serum osteocalcin level, such as metabolic-related variables. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serum osteocalcin level and carotid intima-media thickness… (More)
- Yu-qi Luo, Xiao-jing Ma, Ya-ping Hao, Xiao-ping Pan, Yi-ting Xu, Qin Xiong +2 others
- Acta pharmacologica Sinica
- 2015
AIM Osteocalcin is involved in the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in animal models and humans. In this study we investigated the relationship between serum osteocalcin levels and NAFLD in postmenopausal Chinese women. METHODS A total of 733 postmenopausal women (age range: 41-78 years) with normal blood glucose levels were… (More)


text:
Chum Ta-Rai Dance Company from Korean
* Additional fees apply. No coupon or promo codes necessary to enjoy the displayed discount price.
The last date listed for Chum Ta-Rai Dance Company was Friday November 5, 2004 / 8:00pm.
Currently at El Camino College Center for the Arts -- Marsee Auditorium
Music & Dance at El Camino College Center for the Arts
- Full Price:
- $18
- Our Price:
- $9
El Camino College Center for the Arts brings a wealth of internationally renowned performing artists… More
Venue Details
Reviews & Ratings
Featured review from Goldstar MemberRed Velvet
view more less of this review
Unusual dance genre rarely seen in the West
star this review starred report as inappropriate
Very nice dancing and styles. There were very few male dancers, but when they danced, they were very graceful. It almost seemed like they were fighting. The outfits were awesome.
Founded in 1989, Chum Tarai has had over 100 performances in Korea and abroad. The nature of Korean Dance tends to be very emotional and romantic in terms of expression and movement. Thus joy and ecstasy have been called the two most significant elements in Korean Dance. You'll enjoy the colorful and dazzling dances by Kim Mal-Ae. A performance not to be missed!


text:
8 with the 16mm Nikon fisheye gave a rather underexposed result that needed some work in post processing along with the use of my usual plugin to '. ??To protect himself, he uses his not strictly legal computer to play the market and amass an unimaginable fortune. Tights should always always be worn without having lingerie to ensure the hose material can rub next to the very soaked cunt.
but you will find many of them available for download right here, as we slowly add them to the site along with our web updates shot exclusively for this site. Office Supplies Desktop Essentials Calculators Desk Organisation Diaries, Calendars & Planners Glue & Sticky Tape Notepads & Accounting Books Paperclips & Pins Post it Notes & Index Flags Staplers & Hole Punchers Time System Machines Trimmers, Guillotines & Scissors View all . ??Inspite of the efforts poured in by the Government of many countries, there seemed to be no complete solution.
His work has been featured in American Artist Watercolor magazine and Fine Art Connoisseur, for which he painted the magazine's publisher Eric Rhoads's portrait in oils. ??Jules & Simon Sep 2013 Thank you so much to the whole Gravetye team for everything this weekend, we had a fabulous time. Whether you want to build muscle, increase your energy for a workout or refuel post workout, there is a Gaspari product for you.


text:
Welcome to Librarium Online!
Join our community of 80,000+ members and take part in the number one resource for Warhammer and Warhammer 40K discussion!
Registering gives you full access to take part in discussions, upload pictures, contact other members and search everything!
Question is where to get the extra weapon models that they can use. As well the few that regualr csm can use but dont come in the sprue box. Think the only answer ive seen so far is to buy havocs then plunder the box but that seems pricy and silly considering i couldv just fielded the havocs instead. As well anyone here use ebay for 40 k stuff? Is it safe/worth it?
Well, for spare bits I either check if friends have spares. Alternatively you could check out a couple of online bitsstores;
BitzBox - Warhammer and 40k Plastic Bits
BattleWagon Bits!
BITS AND KITS UK - Home
Those are the 3 I'm aware of. And of course there's the trading forum on LO.
I don't think Ebay is worth it, all in all. I find the high shippingcost (me being from Holland and a lot of people are from the US or UK) versus the low choices individual sellers offer not worth it. If I just need 3 meltaguns and someone sells em, that's ok. But as soon as I need a couple of guns, an icon, a few selected heads and maybe even say... a bike fairing, I'm better of at stores like the ones I mentioned.
So when needing special bits, see if it's more you need and see what's most cost effective (since the hobby ain't cheap to begin with). A
As for a safe/easy way... I never had problems with ebay, but then again, i rarely buy single bits from ebay. Last thing that came to mind was 2 sets of forgeworld Imperial fists doors and that went smooth.


text:
Apr 11 | Costa Rica's 13 Hour Vehicle Restriction Returns
Jan 11 | Changes to Vehicle Transit Restrictions in Costa Rica
Jul 08 | Costa Rica's vehicle restrictions to be applied all day long
Mar 16 | El Salvador: New Fines for Transport
Jul 14 | Restrictions on Routes for Freight Transportation in San Salvador
Jun 08 | Nationwide vehicle restrictions to be extended throughout Costa Rica
Nov 09 | El Salvador Closes Borders for Honduran Products
Oct 09 | El Salvador Could Limit Entrance of Honduran Products
Tuesday, March 8, 2016
The Legislature has passed a legal reform to approve a $57 fine to cargo carriers moving in restricted places and times.
From a statement issued by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador:
Thursday, July 31, 2014
As of August 11 trucks with load capacities of up to 15 tons will be restricted from using avenues in the capital of El Salvador.
From a statement issued by the Deputy Minister of Transport of El Salvador:
In order to improve traffic, contribute to fuel economy, and reduce pollution, the Department of Transportation is implementing measures to facilitate increased vehicular traffic flow at points of high traffic congestion on major highways.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
From next month the scheme that prohibits vehicles from circulating within the central part of the country's capital will once again apply all day.
Travel in the center of San Jose will be restricted between 6 am and 7 pm depending on the last digit of your car license plate.
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
During the next three months the transit vehicle restriction will apply only during rush hours.
Depending on plate number the restriction will apply between 6:00 am and 7:30 am and between 4:30 pm to 7 pm.
The new provision will take effect once it is published in the Official Newspaper.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Honduran exporters denounced that the border is closed for dairy products, meat and shrimp.
This measure by the Salvadoran Government is a response to Honduras blocking Salvadoran poultry products.
"The complaint by dairy exporters to the Agriculture Secretary states that 'they [El Salvador] are impeding the entrance of quarantined products like dairy, shrimp and meats without previous notice. This has caused large losses for agriculture exporters and has affected the country's productivity", reported local newspaper La Tribuna.
Monday, October 26, 2009
After Salvadoran products were forbidden from entering Honduras, El Salvador is analyzing the application of reciprocal measures.
This was reported by Hugo Martínez, Salvadoran Chancellor, adding they don't see any justification to the measures adopted by Honduras.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
Starting next Tuesday, cars won't be allowed to enter the center of the city one day a week, depending on their plate number.
Aiming to reduce traffic congestion, the Government introduced new rationale for the application of the measure, which had been rendered ineffectual by a June 12 resolution by the Constitutional Court.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Starting today vehicular travel in Costa Rica's capital is restricted. Each day some cars will be prohibited from circulating, and the day of the week is determined by the vehicle's licence number.
The restrictions will apply for 13 hours of the day, although the government initially intended it to be in place for a full 24 hours.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Restrictions on vehicles being driven in San José, Costa Rica will be broadened to apply all day long.
The government is preparing a decree that will broaden the measure now in place that restricts vehicle travel during rush hours.
Thursday, June 19, 2008
The vehicle restrictions that are currently in effect in San José will soon be extended to the entire country.
The measure, which in effect is a surcharge, is being imposed by the Executive Branch as a means of reducing fuel consumption in Costa Rica, with the goal of reducing the national petroleum bill.
4 & 3pl Panama, Inc.
4 & 3pl Panama, Inc. We offer logistic solutions in terms of operational costs and velocity.
* Customs Transactions
* Importation/Exportation
* Physical Distribution Logistic
Operates in Panama and Panama
Phone: ((507)) 6679 1086
Company Profile
Transportes Imperio S.A.
Organization that operates in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Central America.
Phone: (506) 22804361
Organization that operates in Guatemala.
Phone: (502) 2416 5353 - (502) 2376 7373
OMA Consultores
Specialized consulting in logistics, international transport, supply chain and international business.
Operates in Costa Rica
Phone: (506) 2203-5504
Cargo consolidator. Transportation services.
Operates in Costa Rica
Phone: (506) 2520 1015 - (506) 25201015
SGL Panama
SGL Panama specialize in logistics, distribution, warehousing, transportation, shipping and logistics for equipment, heavy machinery, recreational vehicles and construction materials.
Operates in Panama
Phone: (507) 836 5653 - (305) 392 5766
Panama Canal Upbeat on the Future; Expansion Work Continues to Move Forward On-Time and On-Budget
Monday, April 27, 2009
Press release by: Autoridad del Canal de Panamá
Centro de Exportación e Inversión de la República Dominicana
Organization that operates in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Dominican Republic.
Phone: (809) 5305505
Traders Network Corporation
Organization that operates in El Salvador.
Phone: (503) 2274-0078 - (503) 2130-4342
Grupo Tenorio Holdings Inc
Organization that operates in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.
Phone: (506) 2518 4444 - (506) 2518 5555
bid deadline
more companies...
Suscribe FOR FREE to CentralAmericaDATA EXPRESS.
The most important news of Central America, every day.
Type in your e-mail address:
* Al suscribirse, estará aceptando los terminos y condiciones
2008-2016©CentralAmericaData.COM. All Rights Reserved


text:
Want to join the conversation?
$NOV National Oilwell Varco, Inc. announced today that Jose A. Bayardo has been named SVP & Chief Financial Officer of National Oilwell Varco, effective Aug 28, 2015. Mr. Bayardo succeeds Scott K. Duff, Interim CFO. Prior to joining National Oilwell, Mr. Bayardo, age 43, served as SVP, Resource & Business Development at Continental Resources, Inc.
$NFLX a monster move, going up. Expect making some money on Monday.
$AMD down more than 6% even after posting above consensus third quarter results.
$MCD stock rose more than 2% after it posted better than expected 3Q16 results, driven by global same-store sales growth. Meanwhile, earnings and revenue were lower than last year, hurt by refranchising efforts.


text:
Ericdress Polka Dots Print Pleated Above Knee Casual Dress
Ericdress Falbala Solid Color Knitwear
therein site, you will discover a great number of greatInexpensive prom dresses under 50with good excellent along with low price.delight in your efforts inside ericdress.Inexpensive prom dresses under 50can make women more confident and sexy.because you are the main character, you want to show your best before the guest.weaving plaidInexpensive prom dresses under 50style, fashionable and attractive temperament, tie-in black high-heeled sandals, show slender legs.ericdress price is always the most appropriate. white is changed and don't pick color of skin, wheat color skin sends out a different sex appeal and against its health and vigor.they can be worn with any top.
Elegant Short Sleeves A-Line Lace Floor Length Prom Dress
Graceful A-Line Floor-length V-Neck Prom/Evening Dress
Sweetheart Beaded A-Line Prom Dress
Delicate Sexy Beading Split Front Column Cross Strap Floor Length Evening/Prom Dress
Column Brown Halter Taline's Prom/Bridesmaid Dress
Ericdress A-Line Appliques Short Prom Dress
Ericdress Delicate Beaded Lace Short Prom Dress
Ericdress Appliques A-Line Short Junior Prom Dress
Jewel Neck Short Sheath Prom Dress
Attractive Beaded Sleeveless A-Line Prom Dress
Stunning A-line Sweetheart Beading Prom Dress
Halter A-Line Floor-Length Long Prom Dress
Ericdress Sophisticated A-Line Floor-Length Prom Dress
Ericdress Sweetheart Rhinestone A-Line Long Prom Dress
Sweetheart Ruched Bowknot A-Line Long Prom Dress
Stunning A-Line Embroidery Sweetheart Chiffon Prom Dress
Sweetheart High-Low Length Sequins Prom Dress
Ericdress Glittering A-Line Beaded Long Prom Dress
Ericdress Sheer Neck Sequins Pleats Prom Dress
Classy A-Line Sweetheart Empire Crystal Prom Dress
Lace Scoop A-Line Floor Length Prom Dress
Stylish Sweetheart High-Low Prom/Cocktail Dress
Ericdress A-Line Sweetheart Sequins Long Prom Dress


text:
Check rates!
WiFi available in all areas, Free WiFi, Internet services, WiFi
Private parking, On-site parking, Free parking, Parking
From 14:00 hours
Until 12:00 hours
Like this one, but not quite sure yet?
Hotels Port Moresby
Properties nearby – The Sanctuary Hotel Resort and Spa
Nearby Cities – The Sanctuary Hotel Resort and Spa
Top Destinations: Papua New Guinea
Flexible travel plans?
Didn't find the right property?
All fields marked with an * must be filled in.


text:
Competition between South Korea and Japan in the global export market reached an all-time high last week as more than half of all products sold by the two countries competed directly with each other, a report by a local international traders organization showed Monday.According to the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), the export similarity index (ESI) between the two neighboring countries stood at 0.501, the first time ever that the indicator surpassed the 0.5 mark.A higher ESI number translates into the two countries competing in more markets, with a reading of 0.5 meaning the rivals are competing with at least half the products they ship abroad.
KITA said last year's numbers follow the trend that has been maintained since 2009, when the index stood at 0.455. In the following three years, South Korean companies have been competing more and more with products made by Japanese firms.In particular, competition in automobile parts stood at 0.560 last year, a record high for this sector, South Korea's News Agency (Yonhap) reported."The numbers clearly show that South Korean auto parts have become more competitive vis-a-vis Japanese rivals," the association said.South Korea has been developing car parts as a key growth industry that can augment sales of automobiles abroad.He said that while Japan's weak currency has not seriously affected South Korean products this year, there is a need to keep tabs on foreign exchange rates. A weaker Japanese year can hurt the price competitiveness of South Korean-made products.
The latest report, moreover, showed competition in semiconductor equipment, autos, industrial machinery, steel, computer chips and plastic products was high.ESI numbers for semiconductor equipment, autos and industrial machinery stood at 0.766, 0.707 and 0.690 respectively.These products make up South Korea's core exports to the global market.KITA latest data showed the ESI for South Korea and China, its largest export market, standing at 0.377.
Name (required) *
E-mail (required, but will not be published) *
Notify me of follow-up comments
Verification Code
Ben Stokes gave England a firm grip on the first Test with bat and ball before Shakib Al Hasan's 5-79 revived Bangladesh…
The facade of the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in the Gulf emirate of Dubai, was lit up in pink Thursday…
The London Fashion Week (LFW) is one of the most sought out shows of the year. LFW is an annual fashion event…
Powered and Developed by FilmMatters
Copyright © 2016 Arabtoday


text:
You are a fan of watchers free p58 ? Come to discover the best forums watchers free p58 on the internet and share your experience with a community fan of watchers free p58 . You can also build a forum watchers free p58 and create your online discussion.
Free Forum : Help and support to Forumotion users. Create and administrate a forum. Discover our guides, tutorials, tips on the Forumotion's Support Forum. Free Forum : Help and support to Forumotion users. Create and administrate a forum. Discover
#free, forums, forum, create, make, admin, administrate, configure, tips, support, help, tutorials
Free forum : A End Time Christian Site Telling Bible Prophecy News That Is Happening Now!
christ, jesus, prophecies, fulfilled, christian, studies, religious, site, god's, bible, being, fulled, poems, short, stories
AU Naruto Roleplay Forum, craft your own shinobi in a thriving ninja world, make allies and enemies across nations, do missions, and hunt for legndary weapons!
#free, forum, naruto, roleplay, original, character, alternate, universe, active, updated, play, that, simple, join, role, uzumaki, fights, chat, help, jutsu, ninjutsu
Where the lives of the cats you followed in the books become the real thing; and so much more! Everyone is welcome here, so join in the roleplay fun today!
#free, forum, warriorclan, warriors, erin, hunter, roleplay, warrior, cats, tribe, role, play, written, clans
Free forum : Offering The Best Tagger's Forum That's Just A little Different Than The Rest
#free, forum, taggers, tavern, tagger, forumotion, paint, shop, photoshop, weekly, challenges, monthly, contest, wwo's, graphic's, designers, tuts, tagging, resources, friendly, drama
Free forum : For the enjoyment, education, and enlightenment of Early van enthusiasts.
Free forum : PRA*ISE Promoting Reborn Artistry * Issued Standard of Excellence
#free, pra-ise, pra*ise, promoting, reborn, artistry, issued, standard, excellence
Free forum : A private club
baby, boomers, seniors, over, fifty, retired, friendship, senior, friends, talk, geared, american, elderly, other, people, friendships, retirement
Free forum : Group For Pigeon Fanciers
#free, racing, pigeons, show, fancy, pigeon, chat, loft, flying, club, online, shows
A website dedicated to hosting offline leagues for NR2003.
Free Forum: A little fun community of general sillies who just wanted a place to hang out and have some fun. Anyone is welcome!
gamefaqs, cipher, syndicate, roleplay, games, #free, forum, died, creating, whole, rarar, will, good, site, owner
Free spirits' discussion of The Hobbit, Tolkien, and life.
hobbit, movie, forum, hobbits, tolkien, lord, rings, middle-earth
Free forum : A place to share your passion for the WR250R!
yamaha, wr250r, dirt, bike, dual, sport, adventure, riding, ride, reports, maintenance, reviews, forum, wr250x
Home of all things Battrick Related, Sports and Everything Else
Chess2U is a place to discuss and share anything related to Computer Chess! So you will need Chess2U to keep up with Chess progress!
computer, chess, engines, opening, books, #free, engine, software, download, best, news
Lost Message Board, Lost and General Chat about the show and everything else.
A site for the roleplaying of the all time favorite anime, Soul Eater
#free, forum, soul, eater, roleplay, site, roleplaying, time, favorite, anime
Free forum : A place for Miami Dolphins fans to talk all things Dolphins, NFL and college football, and anything else.
dolfan, cave, place, miami, dolphins, fans, talk, college, football
A fan forum dedicated to PBS / Marc Brown's Arthur series.
arthur, slums, elwood, forum, dedicated, marc, brown's, series
Free forum : A RPG (Role Playing Game) based on the teen titans. Choose or create a character and get stuck into the action!
teen, titans, roleplay, comics, role, playing, game, ttrpg, role-play, robin, starfire, raven, beast, cyborg, terra, superboy, wonder, girl, flash, deathstroke
Free forum : A hang out for any Megaman/Pokemon fan, discuss cartoon or games, RPGs for any anime or game. If you love any game or anime, a great place to hang out and share information, or just to RP
This forum is the boards for the alliance called The Dutch East India Company which plays the online browser game called Politics&War
Free forum : The private forum for all Connects to communicate, share and connect.
Free forum : A humble listing of female characters from a variety of media, whose kiss produces adverse effects on their victims.
#free, upon, lips, humble, listing, female, characters, from, variety, media, whose, kiss, produces, adverse, effects, their, victims
Chat etc for Sky Blues fans. Free forum : SkyBlues around the World
Free forum : Julie Ann's Forum. Free forum : JulieAnn008
#free, julieann008
Free forum : Private forum for Members of the Dobyns Rods Pro Staff
Free forum : For the ~Hetalia RP~ group to transfer to from Tinierme
Free forum : This a place where art meets sims. Where you express yourself without limitations. Without fear. At Simmerty Design, everything is possible.
simmetry, design, modeling, sims, express, limitations, place, simming, custom, content, graphics, competitions, fashion, unique


text: Dealzmodo: Logitech Harmony 550 $70Jason Chen12/13/07 2:50pmFiled to: Deals550DealzmodoHarmonyLogitechRemotesharmony 55026EditPromoteDismissUndismissHideShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalink Tiger Direct has the Logitech Harmony 550 universal remote control for a cheap $69.99. We've got one of these ourselves, so we can safely say that it's the most cost- and time-effective way to control your entertainment system if you've got a bunch of devices. The best part is probably "activities," which turns on and off different units in tandem according to activities you set like "watching TV" or "watching DVDs." [Tiger Direct via Dealhack via Boing Boing Gadgets] Gear from Kinja DealsThe Best External Hard Drives For Your Xbox OnePB2: Peanut Butter, the SequelBecome a (Part Time) Standing Desk User With This Discounted Monitor RiserReply26 repliesLeave a reply


text:
Dumbo Trailer (2018)
02 May 2018
Live action version of the animated classic about a young circus elephant with unusually large ears.
Watch the official Dumbo 2018 trailer in HD below.
02 May 2018
Live action version of the animated classic about a young circus elephant with unusually large ears.
Watch the official Dumbo 2018 trailer in HD below.
Sorry, we can't find the movie trailer you're looking for.
Either a trailer for this movie has not been released yet, or it was removed following a request from the copyright holder.
United States 02 May 2018
These some of the most viewed trailers for movies released in 2018:
14 June 2018
15 November 2018
The adventures of writer Newt Scamander in New York's secret community of witches and wizards seventy years before Harry Potter reads his book in school.
02 March 2018
An action masala film revolving around Niranjan Prasad and the way he tackles an unintentionally made enemy.
20 July 2018
A big-screen animated take on Spider-Man, separate from his appearances in the MCU.
07 June 2018
19 July 2018
Arriving in a mysterious village in South America to study the crater from a meteorite that fell to Earth five thousand years ago, the young Dr.
01 January 2018
K and J head off to a distant planet with help of a special MIB secure space rocket, to negotiate with a group of space terrorists who are set on destroying the world.
31 December 2018
Ten interwoven stories of an American family living in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. after the Second World War.
27 July 2018
Feature Film Adaptation of the DC Superhero Comic starring Jason Momoa as the king of Atlantis.
13 April 2018
No plot details have been announced.
31 December 2018
15-year-old Sonny Lofthus is a gifted and promising wrestler, but when his cop father commits suicide he enters a downward spiral that culminates in imprisonment.
01 January 2018
Plot unknown
What do you think about Dumbo based on the trailer? Are you planning to see Dumbo when it is released on 02 May 2018?


text:
Sound Off
Does the vernal equinox (start of spring) really have exactly 12 hours of daylight and 12 hours of darkness?
6News meteorologist Matt Elwell says: "That is the idea, but it rarely works out that way. Because of the geometry of the Earth and sun, seeing exactly 12 hours of daylight is rare on the vernal equinox. Sunrise is defined as the moment the top part of the sun appears to peek over the horizon and sunset is when the last bit dips below the horizon. The Earth's atmosphere also bends sunlight when it's close to the horizon, making the sun appear to rise before it actually does."
Use the comment form below to begin a discussion about this content.
Commenting has been disabled for this item.
Marks Jewelers 785-843-4266
Find more businesses on Marketplace
Arts & Entertainment · Bars · Theatres · Restaurants · Coffeehouses · Libraries · Antiques · Services
- City moves forward with plan to make residents pay for sidewalk repair October 23, 2016 · 74 comments
- Letter to the editor: Not deplorable October 19, 2016 · 64 comments
- Kobach calls Trump's stance on election results 'reasonable' October 20, 2016 · 46 comments
- Spirit Halloween store under fire for Native American-themed costumes October 21, 2016 · 28 comments
- Catholic leader in Kansas criticizes Kaine October 20, 2016 · 48 comments
- Kansas Biological Survey publication documents vanishing native habitat, suggests preservation steps October 24, 2016 · 10 comments
- Blog: Brownback pick for KDOT secretary may be hard sell for confirmation October 24, 2016 · 3 comments
- Lawrence City Commission passes HERE parking proposal, expresses disdain for sexually suggestive video October 19, 2016 · 36 comments
- Kansas judicial races drawing big money ad campaigns October 23, 2016 · 8 comments
- KU seeks to require holsters, other safety measures for guns on campus October 11, 2016 · 81 comments
- Opinion: Our elections to be monitored like Haiti's October 24, 2016
- Volunteer Opportunities: Help monitor marathon October 23, 2016


text:
Roman Empire Map
This looks like the full Roman empire before its decline in the post classical era. A defining point indicating a time frame is at the topmost left in Britannia. Roman Emperor, Hadrian, had a wall built-you can just barely see the straight line at the tip of the empire. Construction began in 122 CE, and remained patrolled for another 250 years, at which time the empire began to crumble.
"There were 46 provinces under Trajan, a figure that would grow to 96 by the reign of Diocletian (285-305). In Trajan's time, provinces in the interior of the country were run by governors chosen by the Senate, a legislative body run by leading aristocrats. In contrast, border provinces were run by governors named directly by the emperor."
Map of the Roman Empire in 180 AD. This is towards the end of the "Pax Romana"( Roman Peace).
blank map of roman empire
Map that shows the spread of Christianity throughout the Roman Empire (40 maps that explain the Roman Empire - Vox)
Holy Roman Empire in 1250.
The barbarian tribes who carved up the old empire — the Franks, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, the Vandals, and so forth — were much more Romanized than the tribes that had menaced Rome centuries earlier. The rulers of these new kingdoms generally sought to co-opt Roman elites that still held significant wealth and power across the former Western Empire.
I have a joke for y'all: How was the Roman Empire divided? Answer: With a pair of Caesars. Background: In the year 285 CE (A.D.), the Roman Empire was divided into Eastern and Western Empires under...
Map: Holy Roman Empire 900s - 1000s. For history reference.
Need to know where the Roman Empire was? This 'at-a-glance' map of ancient Rome shows you exactly how it looked in the second Century A.D.


text:
|My friend and vegan-since-birth; Soul (at age 3) with flower friends.
|Angel Flinn with Poof the Magic Rabbit; both emanating gentleness.
|My hand-lettered plaque for the "Kisses Memorial Garden".
|Mountaintop meadows where we lived for more than 2 decades (in summer/autumn) at 8,000 ft.
|A most gentle woman; Summer, and the most gentle dog; Valiant, share a moment of LOVE.
|My tribute to Kisses; a very alive vegan-organic garden.
|Playing "stickie" with Kisses was the ultimate in FUN...even Baby Soul thought so!
|A row of sunshiny friends greet you as you enter The Kisses Garden (this year; it changes).
|Beautiful (vegan for 14 of her 15 years) watching a sunset in Hawaii.
|A deer friend (Braveheart); with a dear friend. This is a wild animal; not so wild right?
|Our daily ritual where we climbed a mountain to commune with the sun at 8,000 elevation.
|Kisses and I had a very strong love relationship. She lived with no leash or collar and beside me.
|Young people feel that I respect them and we can easily share honesty and being real.
|Soul (age 6) jumping into the 'Seren-dip-in-me' natural pool; a serendipity in my life.
|Light and Sun; founders of Gentle World; some of the longest-living vegans on Earth.
|Cozy, Butterflies, and Mighty - sometimes we live as a pack; a threesome....just us 3 and happy.
|The bookends defining cute. They were together dropped off at Gentle World. Lucky us!
|Butterflies in The Kisses Garden with Eden and Soul (vegan kids) eating peas!
|The Monarchs and bees just adore the vividly bright Zinnia's ... okay I admit it, so do I!
|My little Mighty man friend. I've known him since he was a puppy. Okay...he's not mine....
|A forest ground squirrel eats cantaloupe seeds on our mountaintop that we called Mount Olympus.
|Thousands showed up for the South Florida VeganFest I organized in 2016. My hand-lettered signs.
|Carrot-Cashew Pate (my recipe) was the most popular hit at our restaurant on Maui; The Vegan.
|One year I saw many butterflies mating...Monarch butterfly porn shot.
|I am hand-feeding a (free-living) forest ground squirrel where we lived alongside forest animals.
|I plant flowers bees love and then leave them bee.... in ecstasy, pollinating, living, and not stinging.
|Valiant; Gentle World Hawaii's rescued dog friend. So gentle. His ear clips speak of his prior abuse.
|Living with Aspen groves and purple lupine fields; summering in a U.S. national forest.
|My close vegan friend Soul (age 6) enjoying his daily play time in the natural pool at my spot.
|Butterflies Katz "author photo" for a poetry and photo book I once published. Big Island, HI.
|I love connecting barefoot with the earth waking on the paths through my veganic garden.
|Golden lights up - as we should - when we are blessed with the presence of a forest deer.
|Sunflowers and corn and blue skies above invite you into the Kisses Garden.
|Having a garden without a fence in northern New Zealand is a real accomplishment and creation.
|A face not only a mother could love...my sweet friend Soul eating peas in my garden.
|The light making beauty even more beautiful.
|Butterflies speaking at the Coral Springs library; Event entitled "It's Easy to be Vegan".
|A caterpillar reminds me of the essence of my chosen name (Butterflies) - transformation.
|My favorite flower; Cosmos in the sun's spotlight.
|I once had a relationship with an injured Monarch butterfly who depended on me for his/her life.
|Speaking up for the animals as always, at a Tamarac Community Center event.
|Baba (lived to age 17) with Golden. Another vegan-eating dog rescued friend.
|Summer and Beautiful; A Picture Speaks a Thousand Words.
|A Monarch butterfly takes her first flight from my hand.
|Peaceful Vegan-Since-Birth Soul at age 3.
|A special and gentle friend: Magic - hugging a Sequoia.
|Butterflies hand feeding a deer. We protected them from hunters.
|A fawn who showed up at my camp-sight in the mornings - and the mother trusted me!
|Paw and hand intertwine; paw of Baba and hand of mine.
|Butterflies; age 59, 38 years vegan holding the book she published.
|A Monarch is starting to emerge from the chrysalis in the 'Gardens of Tranquility'.


text:
The Microsoft® Web Platform offers the right tools for the right task. Design, build, debug, and deploy websites withnavy blue asics volleyball shoes womens . And then test your sites in Windows® Internet Explorer® 10 using the built-in developer tools.
As one of the biggest employers in Stoke on Trent, we offer a highly diverse range of rewarding careers from Administrators, Accountants and Care Workers to Engineers and HR professionals.navy blue asics volleyball shoes womens Pop up pour over messenger bag distillery beard Echo Park Carles actually cardigan tousled, small batch jean shorts stumptown. City of Culture Hull (Part 1) Friday, February 26th, 2016 Regular readers may have noticed that I've been missing for a few days.
??We provide a unique childcare service for parents, combining sport, activities, school study support, self exploration and peer interaction.navy blue asics volleyball shoes womens Shop By Category Wedding ShoesEvening ShoesShoe by StyleShoe by DesignShoe by Heel HeightShoe by ColourShoe by WidthHard to Find Shoe SizesHeel TypeView AllAccessoriesThemesBrandsSale Size UK10UK11UK2UK2. ??Video EU In And Out Campaigns Have Blazing Row On LBC Leaders of the In and Out campaigns had a blazing row live on LBC this morning as the EU referendum heats up.navy blue asics volleyball shoes womens
Mr Trump waffled and rambled for five minutes and seemed unable to come back with a coherent response in one of his worst moments of the campaign. Jessy Brown is about a group buttfest: 2 teen girls having fun with two wild older men as only they can do. Knowing and also applying proven methods of member marketing is going to help you to prosper in making a regular profit in your business.navy blue asics volleyball shoes womens


text:
Filter Results:
Publication Year
Publication Type
Key Phrase
Publication Venue
Learn More
Variation in software requirements, technological upgrade and occurrence of defects necessitate change in software for its effective use. Early detection of those classes of a software which are prone to change is critical for software developers and project managers as it can aid in efficient resource allocation of limited resources. Moreover, change prone… (More)
Software metrics help in determining the quality of a software product. They can be used for continuous inspection of a software to assist software developers in improving its quality. We can also use metrics to develop quality models which predict important quality attributes like change proneness. Determination of change prone classes in an… (More)
- Nachiketa Rout, Megha Khanna
- Rehabilitation research and practice
- 2012
Counseling training in graduate programs continues to be underrepresented. If parental queries are not addressed adequately, they keep visiting one doctor after another. Objective. The aim of the study is to identify maternal needs of children with hearing impairment at two stages of habilitation, that is, just after diagnosis (group I) and after receiving… (More)
- ‹
- 1
- ›


text:
Times are still tough for many of us in our industry. It's no longer news that when the economy took a beating, our meetings and hospitality community took a beating, too. Many of us are still on the prowl, desperate for work. Even those of us with jobs are being asked to do more with and for less, so not only are the unemployed searching, but so are the overemployed.
As someone who has, over the years, sent out more than his share of resumes, I can say that it's a plus to keep your options open. Don't be afraid to look outside of our industry. One, our skills transfer easily from field to field. Secondly, people hire meeting planners all the time, it's just that they often use a different title. The challenge is getting a potential employer to understand that your talents go from place to place and industry to industry.
For example, have you ever read a job description for a local radio producer? It's basically someone who gathers all the parts necessary for a radio personality to host a radio show. That might require some scheduling, working with marketing and PR, and generally making sure all the pieces come together. Sound familiar?
How about a project manager? The terms they use in that particular role might be different, but if anyone knows how to manage a project, it's a Meeting Planner. There are several roles out there with different names, vocabulary and requirements, but in many ways it takes the same skills we as Planners have.
It's not always easy to make your resume reflect those industry idiosyncrasies, but if you study the company website and adjust your resume to fit the job advertisement or description, you might just be able to convince someone that you can do the job. And that's what a resume is for. The real selling happens during the interview and that's when you can really shine.
As someone who has done hiring for meeting roles, I've seen the reverse. As a matter of fact, I once had an applicant whose background was in television news production. My immediate thought was, "are you crazy? That's nothing like planning a meeting." But on closer inspection of that resume, I could see where the applicant's knowledge could easily work in our world, too.
Expand your search and include job boards that you wouldn't normally check. And then, in the words of Nike, just do it.