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Going into the final six weeks of the year, the major U.S. stock markets have already registered 20%-plus gains, and most are at or near record levels. The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 is up 26% to 1798, finishing the week at a new high. This is the best year for the S&P since 2003. Small stocks have soared even higher, with the Russell 2000 index up 31%. And the workhorse Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at a record 15,961, having moved up almost 22%.
The widespread gains have prompted talk of a bubble similar to ones in 2000 and 2007. And in certain pockets of technology, including social media and cloud-related companies, that is no doubt true. Highfliers like Twitter twtr 21.4170692431562% Twitter Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD22.62 3.99 21.4170692431562% /Date(1474664447323-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 191045257 AFTER HOURS USD22.39 -0.23 -1.0167992926613616% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1370080 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 16008785102.0048 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 635246 More quote details and news » (ticker: TWTR), LinkedIn lnkd 0.16105569409808812% LinkedIn Corp. Cl A U.S.: NYSE USD192.79 0.31 0.16105569409808812% /Date(1474664510073-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 974300 AFTER HOURS USD192.79 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 326 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 25974669175.0964 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 365817 More quote details and news » (LNKD) and Workday wday -0.8529020824102791% Workday Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD89.51 -0.77 -0.8529020824102791% /Date(1474664521348-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 735031 AFTER HOURS USD89.51 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 53635 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 17543960418.7012 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 259922 More quote details and news » (WDAY) all look overextended. And in the strongest IPO market since 2007, shares of up-start restaurant chains Noodles & Co. ndls 1.147227533460803% Noodles & Co. Cl A U.S.: Nasdaq USD5.29 0.06 1.147227533460803% /Date(1474664400183-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 380746 AFTER HOURS USD5.29 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 794 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 147311151.393667 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 44325.4 More quote details and news » (NDLS) and Potbelly pbpb 1.5163002274450341% Potbelly Corp. U.S.: Nasdaq USD13.39 0.2 1.5163002274450341% /Date(1474664400263-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 85599 AFTER HOURS USD13.39 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 2912 P/E Ratio 49.592592592592595 Market Cap 337334289.27372 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 56017.6 More quote details and news » (PBPB) are rich enough to give you heartburn.
But big blue chip stocks, including large financial, technology, and energy companies, still look attractive. The S&P 500 is valued at 16 times projected 2013 operating profits of $109 and at 15 times estimated 2014 earnings of $120. Those price/earnings ratios are about equal to the long-run average. Even if next year's earnings growth is closer to this year's projected 5% than to the aggressive current estimate of 10%, the S&P 500 forward P/E is 15.6, which doesn't look excessive at a time of near-zero short-term rates, a 2.71% yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and sub-6% average yield on junk bonds. The S&P 500 dividend yield is 2%, but the earnings payout ratio is historically low at about 35%, meaning companies have room to further boost dividends.
This is the best year for the S&P since 2003. Small stocks have soared even higher. Getty Images
"The first stage of the bull market was a revaluation to something resembling reasonable levels as it dawned on investors that the world wasn't going to end," says Stephen Auth, chief investment officer at Federated Investors. "The second stage began this summer with a transition to the view that the economy is accelerating and that earnings are poised to increase significantly in the coming years."
Tom Lee, the bullish JPMorgan strategist, says "We're in a secular bull market that will last at least another three years." Adds Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Management, "If inflation stays at 3% or less, the market P/E could get into the 20s."
(For a differing view, see the interview with GMO's Ben Inker, "Bright Spots in a Pricey Market.")
Auth, who has been one of the most bullish analysts in Barron's periodic surveys of Wall Street strategists, thinks the S&P 500 could hit 2000 by the end of next year, about 11% above current levels.
Among major asset classes, stocks are by far the best, he says. "The fundamentals are good for stocks and terrible for everything else: bonds, commodities, and cash." Treasury and junk-bond yields are at historically low levels, while slowing growth in China and much of the developing world is cooling demand for a range of commodities, which are in the red this year based on broad-based indexes.
Barron's consistently has been bullish on the stocks in recent years, starting from the market low in March 2009 ("Ouch! That Hurt," March 9, 2009) and including a cover story early this year when the Dow industrials traded around 14,000 ("New Highs in Sight," February 4).
One of the biggest coming challenges for stocks is the likely curtailment of the Federal Reserve's aggressive bond purchases during 2014. When Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised the prospect of "tapering" in the spring -- an action that the Fed has since postponed -- stocks stumbled. But Auth argues stocks can appreciate in 2014 in the face of higher bond yields.
THERE ARE PLENTY of reasons for caution. Margin debt has risen to record levels, investor complacency is high with the VIX index -- a gauge of volatility known as the "fear index" -- near a 10-year low, and many professional investors are raising cash or hedging their portfolios. Warnings about bubble-like conditions are coming from the likes of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and longtime bull Warren Buffett who said two months ago, when the S&P was 5% below current levels, that he's "having a hard time finding things to buy." That said, last week Berkshire Hathaway brka -1.0441547805910052% Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Cl B U.S.: NYSE USD145 -1.53 -1.0441547805910052% /Date(1474664419942-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3525797 AFTER HOURS USD145.09 0.0900000000000034 0.06206896551724138% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 171968 P/E Ratio 14.020498936375942 Market Cap 357758978505.731 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 660789 More quote details and news » (BRKA) disclosed that it had taken a $3.45 billion stake in ExxonMobil xom -0.10773282259995212% Exxon Mobil Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD83.45 -0.09 -0.10773282259995212% /Date(1474664511893-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 12327875 AFTER HOURS USD83.5 0.0499999999999972 0.05991611743559017% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 339231 P/E Ratio 33.11507936507937 Market Cap 346037921696.015 Dividend Yield 3.5949670461354106% Rev. per Employee 2716960 More quote details and news » (XOM).
Barron's Roundtable member Scott Black of Delphi Management in Boston notes this year's bull move is different because "the market hasn't left anything behind." All major sectors of the stock market have rallied this year, a contrast to the situation in 1999 and 2000 when technology soared and most other areas of the stock market trailed badly. Among the few weak spots in 2013 are coal and gold shares.
Another laggard has been real-estate investment trusts, which have risen just 5% including dividends, as measured by the MSCI U.S. REIT index. That's behind telecom, utilities, and master limited partnerships. REITs appear to be one of the most attractive income-oriented sectors of the stock market given average dividend yields of about 4%, the prospect of mid-single digit annual profit growth and some inflation protection.
The case for small and mid-cap stocks is harder to make after outsize gains this year and more than a decade of outperformance relative to their larger brethren. The median mid-cap stock in the S&P MidCap 400 has a market value of about $3.4 billion while the median issue in the S&P SmallCap 600 is just under $1 billion.
"Small caps are awfully expensive on an absolute basis and relative to large-cap stocks," says Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Steven DeSanctis. He calculates that the Russell 2000 index is valued at about 18.5 times forward earnings. The small-cap benchmark historically has had a higher P/E than the S&P 500, but the spread has averaged less than one multiple point. The gap, based on 2014 earnings estimates, is now more than two points.
DeSanctis's work shows that when small stocks have been this expensive -- dating back to 1979 -- the return in the subsequent 12 months has averaged a negative 1% and they have trailed large-cap stocks by about five percentage points. Black agrees, noting that small- and mid-cap indexes look overpriced and that large-cap stocks are fairly valued. "It's getting especially difficult to find good value among small and mid-cap stocks," he says.
One indication of how scarce bargains are in the small- and mid-cap arenas is that there are just 10 stocks in the S&P mid-cap index with P/Es of 10 or lower based on estimated 2013 earnings and just 14 such stocks in the S&P small-cap index. There are 21 sub-10 P/E stocks in the S&P 500 with the largest representation from financials, including MetLife met -0.17937219730941703% MetLife Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD44.52 -0.08 -0.17937219730941703% /Date(1474664511312-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 6472303 AFTER HOURS USD44.53 0.00999999999999801 0.022461814914645103% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 70030 P/E Ratio 11.715789473684211 Market Cap 48921779638.7658 Dividend Yield 3.5938903863432166% Rev. per Employee 965000 More quote details and news » (MET), Prudential Financial pru 0.2495632642874969% Prudential Financial Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD80.34 0.2 0.2495632642874969% /Date(1474664561145-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3179388 AFTER HOURS USD80.34 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 48692 P/E Ratio 8.256937307297019 Market Cap 35108578399.6582 Dividend Yield 3.4851879512073687% Rev. per Employee 1032480 More quote details and news » (PRU), and Capital One Financial cof -1.1921264208483504% Capital One Financial Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD71.28 -0.86 -1.1921264208483504% /Date(1474664540136-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3054127 AFTER HOURS USD71.28 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 45320 P/E Ratio 10.053596614950635 Market Cap 36073167646.3904 Dividend Yield 2.244668911335578% Rev. per Employee 578084 More quote details and news » (COF), and technology, such as Hewlett-Packard hpq -0.1984126984126984% HP Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD15.09 -0.03 -0.1984126984126984% /Date(1474664721259-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 7971477 AFTER HOURS USD15.2 0.109999999999999 0.7289595758780649% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 130763 P/E Ratio 8.06951871657754 Market Cap 25817118747.3871 Dividend Yield 3.2869449966865476% Rev. per Employee 213986 More quote details and news » (HPQ), Western Digital wdc -0.24968789013732834% Western Digital Corp. U.S.: Nasdaq USD55.93 -0.14 -0.24968789013732834% /Date(1474664400207-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3949151 AFTER HOURS USD55.95 0.0200000000000031 0.03575898444484177% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 33518 P/E Ratio 44.388888888888886 Market Cap 15898942356.0379 Dividend Yield 3.5758984444841766% Rev. per Employee 178298 More quote details and news » (WDC), and Micron Technology mu -0.625355315520182% Micron Technology Inc. U.S.: Nasdaq USD17.48 -0.11 -0.625355315520182% /Date(1474664400458-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 17805509 AFTER HOURS USD17.46 -0.0199999999999996 -0.11441647597254005% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 142112 P/E Ratio 56.38709677419355 Market Cap 18151074051.0295 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 401950 More quote details and news » (MU).
What still looks reasonable in a record-high market? JPMorgan's Lee favors large-cap technology stocks. So does Black, who has recommended Qualcomm qcom -1.2122166246851385% Qualcomm Inc. U.S.: Nasdaq USD62.75 -0.77 -1.2122166246851385% /Date(1474664400193-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 7701328 AFTER HOURS USD62.6 -0.149999999999999 -0.23904382470119523% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 93394 P/E Ratio 18.37750768780202 Market Cap 92471408813.4766 Dividend Yield 3.3784860557768925% Rev. per Employee 691697 More quote details and news » (QCOM) and Oracle orcl -0.7086813464945584% Oracle Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD39.23 -0.28 -0.7086813464945584% /Date(1474664450886-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 12581113 AFTER HOURS USD39.23 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1436201 P/E Ratio 18.68095238095238 Market Cap 161061387393.082 Dividend Yield 1.5294417537598777% Rev. per Employee 273485 More quote details and news » (ORCL). Most big tech stocks still trade for low double-digit P/Es based on 2014 earnings -- below the market multiple -- and carry dividend yields of 2% or more.
GROWTH IS A PROBLEM. Cisco Systems csco -1.010739102969046% Cisco Systems Inc. U.S.: Nasdaq USD31.34 -0.32 -1.010739102969046% /Date(1474664400254-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 18557592 AFTER HOURS USD31.34 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1884607 P/E Ratio 14.783018867924529 Market Cap 157149855247.552 Dividend Yield 3.318442884492661% Rev. per Employee 668209 More quote details and news » (CSCO) gave surprisingly weak guidance of an 8% to 10% revenue drop in its current quarter in conjunction with its quarterly earnings report last week, prompting a 11% drop in its shares Thursday. And International Business Machines ibm -0.7238485683172122% International Business Machines Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD154.98 -1.13 -0.7238485683172122% /Date(1474664493149-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 2511996 AFTER HOURS USD154.72 -0.259999999999991 -0.16776358239772873% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 190157 P/E Ratio 12.537820564679233 Market Cap 148136698128.108 Dividend Yield 3.6133694670280034% Rev. per Employee 212467 More quote details and news » (IBM) has been beset by consistently weak revenue.
The big-cap tech growth challenge, however, appears to be reflected in stock prices and P/Es. And the effective P/Es for stocks like Apple aapl -1.666375850636887% Apple Inc. U.S.: Nasdaq USD112.71 -1.91 -1.666375850636887% /Date(1474664400168-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 52080945 AFTER HOURS USD112.23 -0.47999999999999 -0.42587170614852277% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 400206 P/E Ratio 13.167056074766355 Market Cap 607331391067.71 Dividend Yield 2.0228906042054833% Rev. per Employee 1990500 More quote details and news » (AAPL), Cisco, and Microsoft msft -0.674507090971982% Microsoft Corp. U.S.: Nasdaq USD57.43 -0.39 -0.674507090971982% /Date(1474664400295-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 19373747 AFTER HOURS USD57.38 -0.0499999999999972 -0.08706251088281386% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 581589 P/E Ratio 28.014634146341464 Market Cap 447524202763.829 Dividend Yield 2.7163503395437925% Rev. per Employee 742939 More quote details and news » (MSFT) are even lower than they appear thanks to huge cash positions. Apple's P/E, for instance, falls to about nine from 12 when factoring in its $143 a share in cash, which is nearly 30% of its $525 share price.
Not surprising, activists like Carl Icahn are pouncing, trying to unlock some of the value in these behemoths. A less aggressive activist, ValueAct Capital, has been involved with Microsoft. Its shares are up 20% since CEO Steve Ballmer's August announcement that he plans to step down amid expectations that his successor will take shareholder-friendly actions to boost earnings like selling the company's unprofitable search engine Bing and cutting bloated costs.
Cisco could become the next activist target in tech. Investors could push Cisco to use its great balance sheet -- with about $6 a share in net cash and investments, or 30% of its current stock price of $21 -- to return more cash to holders. Change could come at Cisco with longtime CEO John Chambers facing greater criticism. Cisco's P/E is around 10 based on reduced current-year profit estimates.
Many big financials have stalled after early-year gains and trade for around 10 times next year's projected earnings. JPMorgan Chase jpm -0.20774595637334917% JPMorgan Chase & Co. U.S.: NYSE USD67.25 -0.14 -0.20774595637334917% /Date(1474664407899-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 13798112 AFTER HOURS USD67.25 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 169245 P/E Ratio 11.398305084745763 Market Cap 242905785034.18 Dividend Yield 2.8550185873605947% Rev. per Employee 408196 More quote details and news » (JPM) may finally be getting past its legal woes and that could drive its share price, now $54, above $60 in 2014. The bank's core franchises -- investment banking, trading, commercial and consumer banking, credit cards, asset management and private banking -- look better than ever. That's not reflected in its rock-bottom P/E of nine based on estimated 2014 earnings. The shares yield nearly 3%.
A well-managed Wells Fargo wfc 0.04374453193350831% Wells Fargo & Co. U.S.: NYSE USD45.74 0.02 0.04374453193350831% /Date(1474664417064-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 28291539 AFTER HOURS USD45.81 0.0700000000000003 0.1530389156099694% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 418985 P/E Ratio 11.21078431372549 Market Cap 230783322531.283 Dividend Yield 3.3231307389593354% Rev. per Employee 352599 More quote details and news » (WFC) has a lucrative consumer-banking business and a big fan in Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway has steadily added to its stake in recent years. Berkshire holds over $19 billion worth of Wells Fargo, making it Buffett's single largest equity investment.
The two largest U.S. energy companies, ExxonMobil and Chevron cvx -0.7601520304060813% Chevron Corp. U.S.: NYSE USD99.22 -0.76 -0.7601520304060813% /Date(1474664434249-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 6815003 AFTER HOURS USD99.23 0.0100000000000051 0.010078613182826043% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 581781 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 187180518640.772 Dividend Yield 4.313646442249547% Rev. per Employee 1815530 More quote details and news » (CVX), have trailed the market this year mostly because investors worry about the high cost of maintaining -- and expanding -- their huge reserve bases. Those problems are reflected in their share prices with Exxon, at $93, trading for 12 times estimated 2013 earnings, and Chevron, at $120, carrying a 10 P/E. Both yield around 3%.
THREE DEFENSIVE LAGGARDS this year have been AT&T t 0.4135246898564826% AT&T Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD41.28 0.17 0.4135246898564826% /Date(1474664411156-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 18357767 AFTER HOURS USD41.27 -0.00999999999999801 -0.02422480620155039% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 509806 P/E Ratio 17.831533477321813 Market Cap 253954552490.234 Dividend Yield 4.651162790697675% Rev. per Employee 577456 More quote details and news » (T), Southern Co. so 0.09349289454001496% Southern Co. U.S.: NYSE USD53.53 0.05 0.09349289454001496% /Date(1474664561539-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 4084868 AFTER HOURS USD53.53 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 197797 P/E Ratio 21.189929538437177 Market Cap 52390130645.5005 Dividend Yield 4.18456940033626% Rev. per Employee 652773 More quote details and news » (SO), and Simon Property Group (SPG), the country's largest REIT. AT&T has a bond-like 5% yield -- its dividend may be lifted by about a penny per quarter soon -- and seems capable of mid-single earnings growth thanks to its large wireless business.
Simon, a mall REIT, has one of the industry's best management teams, ample free cash flow in excess of its dividend that goes toward expansion and a history of regular dividend increases, including a recent hike in the quarterly payout to $1.20 from $1.15. At $152, the shares yield 3.2%. Southern, a slow-growth electric utility has been hurt by cost overruns at new power plants, but its dividend yield, at 4.8%, appears to be secure.
Caterpillar cat -1.2694610778443114% Caterpillar Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD82.44 -1.06 -1.2694610778443114% /Date(1474664409574-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 3013027 AFTER HOURS USD82.47 0.0300000000000011 0.036390101892285295% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 18506 P/E Ratio 44.32258064516129 Market Cap 48164006555.7398 Dividend Yield 3.7360504609412906% Rev. per Employee 395412 More quote details and news » (CAT) and Deere de -0.9743346007604563% Deere & Co. U.S.: NYSE USD83.34 -0.82 -0.9743346007604563% /Date(1474664438890-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 2538503 AFTER HOURS USD83.15 -0.189999999999998 -0.22798176145908328% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 22754 P/E Ratio 16.701402805611224 Market Cap 26204012014.4421 Dividend Yield 2.8797696184305255% Rev. per Employee 469156 More quote details and news » (DE) have bucked the upward trend in most big industrial stocks this year and now have some of the lowest P/Es in that group. Weakness in North American farm prices -- corn is down 30%, to $4.30 a bushel, this year -- has weighed on Deere, while tough conditions in the global mining industry have hurt Caterpillar. Both are world-class companies that are exposed to strong long-term trends in agriculture and infrastructure development.
Although there has been some cooling lately in the stock market's hottest sectors, mainly Internet, social media, and cloud computing, the marquee stocks still are up sharply for the year (see table below.).
Many of these stocks have little or no earnings and thus are being valued on revenues and some dubious financial measures, notably earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) and adjusted earnings per share. Both these figures exclude often high costs associated with restricted stock grants to employees. It's tough to make a strong case for any of them at current levels.
Twitter is an extreme example. At $44, it's valued at about $31 billion with an enterprise value (market value minus net cash) of around $29 billion, based on a fully diluted share count of around 705 million shares. That's more than 25 times projected 2014 sales, more than double the rich valuations of Facebook fb -1.6297662976629765% Facebook Inc. Cl A U.S.: Nasdaq USD127.96 -2.12 -1.6297662976629765% /Date(1474664400192-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 28189847 AFTER HOURS USD128 0.0400000000000062 0.03125976867771178% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 136419 P/E Ratio 61.51923076923077 Market Cap 367367909012.184 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 1746120 More quote details and news » (FB), LinkedIn, and Zillow (Z). The S&P 500 is valued at less than two times sales.
Twitter isn't expected to be profitable until 2015 or 2016, though some think it could top $1 a share in earnings by 2017. That means it trades for 40 times on potential profits four years out. Twitter has enticing potential with its ad-targeting capabilities to its 232 million subscribers based on their demonstrated interests, but that's more than already reflected in its share price. A sevenfold rise in revenue between 2013 and 2017, which is what the Street is expecting, could be tough to achieve.
TWITTER ALSO IS A MAJOR OFFENDER when it comes to excessive employee stock grants. It issued over 50 million shares of stock to employees this year, whose value exceeds current-year projected revenue of about $650 million. That's based on the pre-IPO grant prices of around $20, not the current market price.
Analysts generally exclude the high cost of those grants, which typically vest over a four-year period, from Ebitda and adjusted earnings calculations even though the stock is equivalent to cash -- and viewed as such by employees. GAAP earnings properly require stock compensation to be treated as the expense. That's why GAAP earnings are a better financial measure than non-GAAP, or adjusted, earnings. Outside of the tech and biotechnology industries, companies rarely try to exclude restricted stock from their expenses.
Cloud-computing stocks have similar valuations to social networking shares. Industry leader Salesforce.com crm -5.63078160611342% Salesforce.com Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD70.39 -4.2 -5.63078160611342% /Date(1474664454330-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 23145430 AFTER HOURS USD70.69 0.299999999999997 0.42619690296917173% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 33743 P/E Ratio 227.06451612903226 Market Cap 47689224586.4868 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 393399 More quote details and news » (CRM) doesn't earn a profit based on GAAP earnings that includes its stock compensation expense and yet it has a market value of $34 billion. Other hot plays with 2014 price/sales ratios above 10 and no GAAP earnings include Workday, NetSuite n -0.11019283746556474% NetSuite Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD108.78 -0.12 -0.11019283746556474% /Date(1474664538138-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 833932 AFTER HOURS USD108.78 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 129 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 8803456614.16138 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 183880 More quote details and news » (N), and ServiceNow now -0.6031827515400411% ServiceNow Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD77.45 -0.47 -0.6031827515400411% /Date(1474664521233-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1200259 AFTER HOURS USD79.47 2.02 2.608134280180762% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 5300 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 12740524497.9858 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 323926 More quote details and news » (NOW). One skeptic on some of the cloud stocks has been veteran tech manager Paul Wick, who runs the Columbia Seligman Communications and Information fund (SLMCX; see "Keep Your Head -- and Money -- Out of the Clouds," Sept. 30).
Investors are also chowing down on restaurant stocks like 2013 IPOs Noodles & Co., Potbelly, and longtime favorite Chipotle Mexican Grill cmg 0.8898966257070412% Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD413.81 3.65 0.8898966257070412% /Date(1474664520914-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 1008635 AFTER HOURS USD413.76 -0.0500000000000114 -0.012082839950702013% Volume (Delayed 15m) : 32894 P/E Ratio 61.30518518518519 Market Cap 12048491566.8898 Dividend Yield N/A Rev. per Employee 68215.7 More quote details and news » (CMG). Noodles has more than doubled its June IPO price, to a recent $43, valuing the company at more than 100 times current-year earnings. The chain, which offers macaroni and cheese and other, often high-calorie, noodle dishes, is opening plenty of new restaurants but comparable-store sales rose only 2.7% in the latest quarter, hardly impressive for a triple-digit P/E stock.
Wall Street got too aggressive in pricing one hyped initial public offering last week and buyers paid the price. Chegg (CHGG), an unprofitable college textbook rental company, went public at $12.50 a share, above the top of its projected IPO pricing range of $11.50 and ended the week around $9. Through a series of Internet acquisitions, Chegg has tried to position itself as a "student-first connected learning platform" thanks to its involvement in e-textbooks and online college recruitment for high-school students. The company still gets about 80% of its revenue from college textbook rentals, a competitive field threatened by e-textbooks, another highly competitive area. Even with the decline, Chegg is valued at around $800 million, compared with Barnes & Noble bks -0.3629764065335753% Barnes & Noble Inc. U.S.: NYSE USD10.98 -0.04 -0.3629764065335753% /Date(1474664523083-0500)/ Volume (Delayed 15m) : 590857 AFTER HOURS USD10.98 % Volume (Delayed 15m) : 4266 P/E Ratio N/A Market Cap 803933631.949767 Dividend Yield 5.46448087431694% Rev. per Employee 147523 More quote details and news » (BKS) at $1 billion. Barnes & Noble has about 30 times Chegg's sales and a profitable college bookstore business.
The Chegg comedown could happen to many more hot stocks. While the bull market may have much longer to run, it may soon be dominated by the shares of large, quality companies rather than the many speculative stocks that have done so well this year. In our February cover story, we wrote that alternative investments like hedge funds starred in this century's first decade, but that stocks would dominate in the current decade. So far, that call looks good.
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The newly-remodeled Agnesian Pharmacy Waupun offers a full line of pharmaceutical services (including delivery), plus durable medical equipment; ostomy, foot care, urology and diabetes supplies; skin care products and stocking fittings (Jobst distributor). The pharmacy also offers screening products for glucose and cholesterol. It is now located adjacent to the Agnesian EZ Care, which offers minor care for minor illnesses.
Tdap, influenza, pneumonia and a variety of other immunizations are available for adults at this location. Please contact your pharmacist for more information.
Agnesian Pharmacy Blood Pressure Tracker
Location hours: M-F 9 a.m. to 7 p.m. • Sat 9 a.m. to 2 p.m.
(920) 324-3010
Gift Shop
Click below to find gifts for your loved one at the locations below.
Home Medical Equipment
The Agnesian Health Shoppe offers a complete line of quality home health and respiratory equipment, from sales and rentals to repairs.
Agnesian HealthCare is Sponsored by the Congregation of Sisters of St. Agnes.
Copyright © 2011 Agnesian HealthCare. All Rights Reserved.
Site Information

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Skip to comments.Reagan Insider Refutes Obama Claim of 'Warm Conversation' After Press Conf. Insult
Posted on 11/09/2008 9:17:49 AM PST by kristinn
click here to read article
Let's face it. Aside fom being a stone-cold totalitarian, the guy is an asshole.
Two words: "Rahm Emmanuel", says it all. Actions speak louder than words and Rahm SCREAMS 'go f yourself, Republicans'!
You're mistaken. It was liberal RON who endorsed Obama- not Michael.
So he should have just left it at the words, "I have apologized."
You know, that is a great observation. I can possibly see beforehand that he was "trying" to look Presidential by creating a seal. But afterwards? It's weird.
I certainly had doubts, and waited for confirmation from the Reagan side that this call ever happened.
Anybody want fries with that double standard?
I doubt very much Michael Reagon endorsed Obama. I think you meant Ron Jr—the ballet dancer.
Michael Reagan supported John McCain every night, with every breath he had.
As if Ron Reagan cares. If you remember he trashed his father's funeral by being an *ss and bringing his politics to it with his 'speech'.
I can't wait till Bill Oreally and Karl Camoron report on this tomorrow. After all, this is news isn't it?
My apologies to all..I thought it was Micheal. There have been so many turncoats I've lost track.
That's what weirded me out the most about this very strange comment.
His supposedly beloved "typical white person" dies and days later he's callously cracking lame jokes about dead people?
Clearly this man has some, um, "isssss-yews".
Did they have her funeral yet? If so, he didn't go.
I keep wondering when they're going to bury her, or if he just skipped the whole thing.
What a punk this "president" is.
You mean Ron, Nancy Boy?
Obviously not, or the press would cover it like a president's funeral.
At his first press conference, he made the comment 'oh wow' when the press corps stood up as he entered the room. He also struggled through all the questions put to him except when talking about the puppy.
He's clueless. He's arrogant. He's the leader of the free world.
This is the image is everything COWPIE.
He looked uncomfortable about the puppy too, trying to justify how his family would not be getting any mutt.
Maybe she voted for McCain.
Everybody want some PIE?
These bastards try to spin EVERYTHING.
Everyone should send it to Drudge and other outlets. I just did.
You got that right.
The fact that there have been so many turncoats (more than I've ever seen) in favor of the the biggest megalomaniac and the most radical Marxist/Leninist/Maoist presidential politics have ever seen is one of the more ominous signs of what's to come. I've never seen so many people so thoroughly deceived.
Let... Me... See... If... I... Can... Help... You... Understand... My... Point.
The quote from the Obama camp was sourced. Doesn't mean that it is factual, just that the person who said it had the balls to say they said it.
Unlike the "Unsourced" statements that we seem to be getting more and more of from FOX.
Beloved Leader will go to another typical white person's funeral instead.
Bambi's the King of flippant remarks. I have a feeling there's going to be plenty of occasions when his sarcastic, off-the-cuff remarks come back to bite him in the a$$.
Our priest today said, among other things — "I saw something in obama's eyes when he 'won' that was NOT of the Lord."
Bear with each other and forgive whatever grievances you may have against one another. Forgive as the Lord forgave you.
Lincoln and I were talking yesterday, and Abe remarked that when he freed the slaves he never took Obama into account. "If I had known then what I know now, that reminds me, Jimmy Polk and I were talking yesterday and . . ."
Lincoln tends to ramble.
Use this to drive a wedge into every Libtard you know Monday morning.
Let the Buyer's Remorse Begin!
I'm surprised he didn't hold his first press conference at Solider Field with exploding fireworks forming the Official Seal of the Office of the President-Elect over the heads to the weeping masses.
Choke on your salt, noobis minimus reducto ad absurdum.
Looks like Osama screwed up without his trusty teleprompter.
I've seen ugly dresses before - and worn a few - but that one takes the cake. Ugh.
It was after little Thad died --- the second child she had lost to illness. Mary went a little crazy after that and I guess you would have to be a pretty hard person to not allow her her grief.
There have been far worse thing happen in the White House than seances.
They will come after Andrea with the so-called Fairness Doctrine.
I wish her well.
I'm guessing he still has tingles up and down his leg. ;~))
Given that there had been an attempt on Ronald Reagan's life, I hardly can fault Mrs. Reagan for consulting an astrologer.
Mr. Obama consults the likes of William Ayers and Rev. Wright for advice.
Our "First Lady In Regalia for Great Expectancy" (FLIRGE) has Hillary's fashion sense.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.


text:
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Maine Volunteer Fire Assistance (VFA) Program Funds
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The purpose of the Volunteer Fire Assistance (VFA) program is to provide Federal financial, technical and other assistance to state foresters and other appropriate officials to organize, train, and equip fire departments in rural areas and rural communities to prevent and suppress fires.
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Click on a thumbnail to go to Google Books.
King Henry IV, Part 1 (edition 2010)
by William Shakespeare
Work details
Henry IV, Part I by William Shakespeare
Books Read in 2014 (503)
» 7 more
No current Talk conversations about this book.
Sadly, I bailed on this play only 30 pages from the end. But when a play takes about 20 minutes for me to read a two-page spread, it's time to get out of there. I've seen the Hollow Crown adaptation featuring Jeremy Irons, Tom Hiddleston, and Simon Russell Beale, and thank goodness for them -- having them in mind helped me get through much more of the play than I would have otherwise. The Signet Classics edition has a lot of footnotes, some unnecessary, others unable to fully explain the item being footnoted. The constant back-and-forth from text to footnote to text again also slowed me down when reading. This experience doesn't bode well for Part 2. Maybe a scene-by-scene Coles Notes to read along with the play is required.
It doesn't have the famous speeches of Henry V, but it has the action, the humor, Hotspur, and... FALSTAFF. I can only imagine some Elizabethan Chris Farley got rich off this part. It would only make sense.
Much more interesting than Richard II. The love of Henry IV for Hotspur over his own son seems to foreshadow the King Lear tragedy. Shakespeare depicts HIV as a fairly weak king, in my opinion, but I suppose this is meant to boost HV's status.
The Hal/Falstaff robbery scene was quite amusing and set up the drama of the Hal/Hotspur confrontation with Falstaff taking credit for Hotspur's death.
I really enjoyed reading Shakepeare's "King Henry IV, Part One". It was my first time reading one of Shakepeare's historical plays and this one exceeded my expectations.
It's got a good story line, Henry IV is fighting rivals for his throne and trying to bring his unruly son under control. Falstaff is a pretty funny character -- I thought he was much more fun here than in "The Merry Wives of Windsor."
I thoroughly enjoyed reading part 1. Shakespeare has a way with words that few authors do. I loved his interpretation of Falstaff and the humor he assigned to this character. The war scenes were brilliantly done. By the end of the book, Prince Henry has done what he vowed he would - become a prince his father could be proud of. Fun, fun read.
Is contained in
The Complete Works of William Shakespeare by William Shakespeare
Henry IV (Part 1 & 2) by William Shakespeare
The Works of William Shakespeare: The Henry Irving Shakespeare: Volume 2: Romeo and Juliet, King Henry VI Pt. 1, King Henry Vi Pt. 2 by William Shakespeare
The Norton Anthology of English Literature, Volume 1 {generic} by M. H. Abrams
4 Plays: Henry IV, Part I; Henry IV, Part II; Henry V; Richard II by William Shakespeare
4 Plays: Henry IV, Part I; Henry IV, Part II; Henry V; Richard III by William Shakespeare
Is replied to in
Was inspired by
Has as a reference guide/companion
Has as a student's study guide
References to this work on external resources.
Wikipedia in English (5)
Amazon.com Product Description (ISBN 0743485041, Mass Market Paperback)FOLGER Shakespeare Library
Each edition includes:
· Freshly edited text based on the best early printed version of the play
· Full explanatory notes conveniently placed on pages facing the text of the play
· Scene-by-scene plot summaries
· A key to famous lines and phrases
· An introduction to reading Shakespeare's language
· An essay by a leading Shakespeare scholar providing a modern perspective on the play
· Illustrations from the Folger Shakespeare Library's vast holdings of rare books
Essay by Alexander Leggatt
The Folger Shakespeare Library in Washington, D.C., is home to the world's largest collection of Shakespeare's printed works, and a magnet for Shakespeare scholars from around the globe. In addition to exhibitions open to the public throughout the year, the Folger offers a full calendar of performances and programs. For more information, visit www.folger.edu.
(retrieved from Amazon Thu, 12 Mar 2015 18:15:05 -0400)
While King Henry IV rightly laments that his heir, the young Prince Hal, has not distinguished himself in battle, Hal is up to no good at the Boar's Head Tavern with his rotund cohort, Falstaff. With a rebellion rising against the throne at home, Hal lives it up in the ale houses of London, associating with petty schemers and masterminding practical jokes instead of military strategies. When his father sends a messenger to fetch his delinquent son, will Hal rally to the call?… (more)
(summary from another edition)
Amazon Kindle (23 editions)
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2 editions of this book were published by Penguin Australia.
Editions: 0140714561, 0141013664
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An edition of this book was published by Yale University Press.
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Need to scrape a website for prices and inventory instock
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I have a manufacturer that supplies us with merchandise and we need to know their prices and if the items are in stock or out of stock, so we have to scrape their site for the information. I have a text file filled with their UPC's and model numbers that we want to put in a text file that we will use to look up each item using their site search.
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Marissa Mayer Named Yahoo CEO
Long-time Google executive Marissa Mayer has been named president and CEO of Yahoo. Google's 20th employee resigned from Google yesterday. She starts her new job as Chief Yahoo first thing Tuesday and is Yahoo's sixth CEO in the past 12 months.
Koogle: The Kosher Search Engine
There is now an Israeli search engine – Koogle, developed for Jewish searchers that keeps kosher – well it shuts down on ... read more
The Search Engine Update – Number 148
This issue contains a look at recent Yahoo changes, the planned phase-out of Google Premium Sponsorships and recaps top search engine stories from mid-April 2003.
Inktomi, Google Win In Recent Relevancy Test
In December, I called for search engines to get beyond the hype of who is biggest or freshest and develop a commonly-accepted means of measuring actual relevancy. Now, the first such third-part test like this in ages has been done.


text:
Watch TV by Country
Welcome to our tv site (live-ontv.com), the place where you can watch live on your computer over 3000 live tv channels from all over the world.Browse the television stations by country (left), by category (right) or just type the name of the desired tv online channel in the search box at the top of this page. We try to offer a wide variety of categorized Live Channels, Webstreams, Direct Tv and Broadband Internet TV Channels.
Television Stations tagged with Tirol
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Nov 1, 2010
As LatAm stares down a growing list of infrastructure needs, builders and governments hope private lenders return. The only certainty is multilateral and state lending.
by Ben Miller
Brazil's 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics grab
headlines, as do multibillion dollar national infrastructure
investment plans. However, most of the deals that have to
happen are still only being talked about and the actual flow of
committed capital is relatively small.
Funds are available. A lack of bankable projects and
incentives for the private sector has kept investment away,
leaving much of the heavy lifting to government sources such as
Mexico's Banobras and Brazil's BNDES.
Ambitious infrastructure plans have been revised, as the
continent risks falling short of its goals...
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September 28-29, 2016 | New York, USA
The market for structured finance in Latin America is once again at the forefront as the buy-side ... more
September 29, 2016 | New York, USA
Now in its third year, LatinFinance's Project & Infrastructure Finance Awards Dinner celebrates ... more
October 12, 2016 | Beijing, China
LACIF is the pre-eminent business meeting connecting Latin America and China. This unique ... more
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Caribbean economies are building momentum as efforts towards strengthening regional financial ... more
Which area will be most profitable for investment banks in LatAm in 2016?
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text:
Magical Tropical Lodge & Lagoon with 5 Fireplaces 2 Jungle Spas and 5 Bedrooms
The owner has been emailed.
To book this property, you need to complete your booking through checkout on the VRBO website. We can't protect your payment if we don't know you've booked through us. Learn more
- Minimum stay:2-7 nights
- Internet:Yes
- Pets considered:Yes
- Wheel chair accessible:N/A
Property description
805 758-0203
2 Night Minimum Stay
July & August Require 1 Week Minimum Stay
** 1-Week Bookings are your Best Deal !!!!!!!!!
Long weekends require 3-Days Or More
Prices Include Entire Compound
$1295 per night
$6000 a week -Best Deal
ROLLING THUNDER RANCH Is rented as a complete compound, consisting of 3 separate amazing structures (Main House) aka THUNDER HOUSE & (Guest House) aka BUFFALO COTTAGE plus a BUNK HOUSE it is only rented together for a total of 5 Bedrooms 4 Baths 2 Kitchens, 2 Spas, 5 fireplaces, 1 Out Of This World Black-Bottom Pool & 2 Huge Outdoor dining areas with outdoor Fireplaces & BBQ's, A beautiful sprawling Lawn & Event Area, private & gated, great for birthdays, girls weekends, family gatherings, The ultimate place to create Magic & Peace
INCLUDES ALL: not rented separately
THUNDER HOUSE- 3 Bedrooms/ 2 kings /1 queen/ 3 Bath + a 1 Pull Out Queen Sleeper Couch in Living room+ an additional Queen Essential EZ Bed
BUFFALO COTTAGE - 1 Bedroom / Large Studio /1 King /1 Bath + 1 Single Pull Out Sleeper
BUNK HOUSE 1 Full Bed / No bathroom…/ Trees
The outdoor dining experience is supreme. The Zen feeling starts at the first moment you gaze at the extraordinary sultry jungle, some will be completely awe-struck by the garden's imagination. The rain forest-like paradise features over 1000 plants & palm trees, colorful tropical flowers, secret winding enchanting paths, magical ingenuous touches only the minds eye can try and explain. Set deep inside the palms you will find 2 steaming, river-rock Jacuzzi Spas. Another path will take you to a secluded Organic garden of fresh delights to pick for your nightly feast. There are places if needing privacy and there are a million places to hang out and socialize. The pool is sheltered with trees and plants and still there is plenty of sun. When you're there you feel like you've transported your guests to a secret island. Everyone can chip in and help with something. You will have people swimming, grilling, hammocking, bartending, sleeping, frisbeeing, and, so much more.
The outdoor centerpiece fireplace is an enormous rock masterpiece! Next to it is the biggest single piece of rock slab that makes an impressive communal table for 15 lucky guests. Sun bathe Ojai style next to the serene black-bottomed lagoon style pool or sip poolside cocktails at the 2 tropical Tiki bars with stone bar & seats. This is a place for rejuvenation & inspiration! * Don't forget this paradise is completely gated and pet friendly.
A Unique Rock House was constructed in 1918. The house has since been updated with all the amenities of a high-tech world yet has the rustic allure & cozy earthiness of a Western Retreat. Surrounded by sensual stone and wood inside and out. You will love the indulgent touches such as artistic rock showers, beautiful sunken koi fish ponds in the middle of the living room floor, plush leather couches and twisted juniper feather beds, potbelly stoves, original artwork, cowhide lamps and antler chandeliers, colorful Navajo rugs and rustic oak floors. The main living room will take your breath away as it is dominated by an immense, river-rock fireplace truly the centerpiece of the home. You will have 2 full-equipped kitchens on the property so this is a foodies bliss. Each bedroom on the ranch is a unique and artistic vision of "cowboy chic" There is high quality linens & organic Pottery Barn duvets on all the goose feather beds. There is a total of 3 indoor fireplaces for cozy winters at the Ranch. Oh course central Air to keep you cool in Ojai's hot summers.
The artist who designed ROLLING THUNDER RANCH is highly acclaimed & sought after for his combination of visionary elements. The "Rolling Thunder Ranch's" mystical aura has already lured many high profile clients and special events to its Magical Oasis. Now it's your special time! Indulge yourself!"
*Large Black Bottom Swimming Pool, 2 Huge Fireplaces, Potbelly Stove (furnished with firewood)
Outdoor Fireplace (furnished with firewood) 2 Huge Poolside Santa Maria BBQ Pit & Grills River Rock and Stainless Steel Modern Kitchen with Appliances, Exotic Gardens & over 500 Palm Trees Surrounding House & Pool Outdoor Dining area for 12 -14 Poolside Tiki Bar Seats, Pool towels, River Rock Showers, Wireless, HBO, Cable Television & DVD Player *Satellite Music Stations, I Pod Speaker Deck, Ceiling & Floor Fans Indoor, Koi Ponds, Wood Floors, Central Heating, Central Air Conditioning , Indoor Dining Table (seats 6) Washer and Dryer ,Plush Leather Furniture ,Persian Rugs, Pool Lounge Furniture, Hammocks & Pool Rafts ,24- Hour assistance, 5 total fireplaces on property
In-House Massage, Yoga and Chefs available
RTR has been featured on the Ojai Garden Tour & Countless magazine features on its extreme beauty & uniqueness
*** Please call to see our Beautiful official site, lots great pictures and info /805 758-0203
Exotic Ranch Pool & Spas , Organic Garden ,Family Reunions, Birthdays & Gatherings Private,Compound,Botanical Gardens,House & Honeymoon Cottage & Cabin, Retreat, Film Location, 5 Fireplaces, Ojai 2000 Garden Tour House, MASTERPIECE
Peace of mind when checking out through VRBO
- We'll back you with our Book With Confidence GuaranteeTM
- You'll get comprehensive payment protection when checking out on our website
- We're always here for you with customer service available 24/7
Read more about our Book with Confidence GuaranteeTM
Property Type
- Estate
Accommodation Type
- Vacation Rental
- Guests Provide Their Own Meals
Onsite Services
- Concierge
- Massage
- Private Chef
- Alternative Lifestyle
Children Welcome:
Kids love the location because it like a fantasy. A small Disneyland of sorts. ...moreless
Bedrooms: 3 Bedrooms, Sleeps 15, Beds for 15
- Bedroom 2: 1 king
- Bedroom 3: 1 queen
- Bedroom 1: 1 king, 1 queen
- Bedroom 5: 1 king, 1 twin/ single
- Bedroom 4: 1 sleep sofa /futon
- Bedroom 6: 1 double
- 1-King bed in master bedroom Thunder house 1-King bed in Thunder house bedroom 1-Queen bed in Thunder house bedroom 1-Queen pull out sofa in Thunder house 1-Queen comfy blow up mattress in Thunder house 1-King bed in Buffalo Cottage 1-Twin roll-away bed in Buffalo Cottage 1-Full bed in Bunkhouse ...moreless
Bathrooms: 4 Bathrooms
- DVD Player
- Foosball
- Games
- Music Library:
Satellite / Cable:
Thunder House: Big Screen TV, DVD,HBO Buffalo Cottage: Large Flat Screen TV, HBO...moreless
- Stereo
- Adventure
- Away From It All
- Family
- Historic
- Botanical Garden
- Churches
- Cinemas
- Health/Beauty Spa
- Live Theater
- Marina
- Museums
- Nude Beach
- Playground
- Restaurants
- Water Parks
- Winery Tours
- Zoo
Local Services & Businesses
- ATM/Bank
- Babysitter
- Fitness Center
- Groceries
- Hospital
- Massage Therapist
- Medical Services
Leisure Activities
- Antiquing
- Bird Watching
- Boating
- Eco Tourism
- Horseback Riding
- Horseshoes
- Paddle Boating
- Scenic Drives
- Shelling
- Shopping
- Sight Seeing
- Walking
- Wildlife Viewing
Location Type
Mountain View:
Amazing mountain views and trails within walking distance. Mountain views, horses and lamas seen from your window....moreless
- Village
Sports & Adventure Activities
- Cycling
- Fishing
- Freshwater Fishing
- Golf
- Hiking
- Hunting
- Jet Skiing
- Kayaking
- Mountain Biking
- Rock Climbing
- Sailing
- Surfing
- Swimming
- Tennis
- Wind-Surfing
Dining table inside Thunder house seats 6 Outdoor table seats 12 Outdoor table at Buffalo Cottage seats 6 we have extra 6 foot banquet tables if needed. This property is all about entertaining!!...moreless
- Dining Area
- Seating for 12 people
- Air Conditioning:
- Clothes Dryer:
5 on the property 2 are huge outdoor fireplaces that are very impressive...moreless
- Hair Dryer
- Heating
- Iron & Board
- Linens Provided:
- Living Room
- Parking
- Parking Off Street:
Parking For RV/Boat/Trailer:
Long, private, gated driveway with narrow turn around. ...moreless
- Towels Provided
- Washing Machine:
Wireless Internet:
We feature a secure wireless connection in both houses....moreless
Wood Fireplace:
Thunder House: 1 Huge Stone Outside Fireplaces, 1 pot belly stove in bedroom and 1 large Santa Maria BBQ. Buffalo Cottage: 1 Large Stone Outside Fireplaces, 1 pot belly stove inside and 1 Medium Santa Maria BBQ, and 1 Charcoal Grill...moreless
Wood Stove:
Potbelly stove in master bedroom of Thunder House and Buffalo Cottage....moreless
Catering Available:
We provide catering or we can arrange for a private chef to come on-site and cook your meal of choice....moreless
- Coffee Maker
- Cooking Utensils
- Dishes & Utensils
- Dishwasher:
Both Thunder House and Buffalo Cottage feature modern kitchen and appliances....moreless
- Microwave:
- Oven
Deck / Patio:
Thunder House features a rock slab table that seats 15 by the outdoor fireplace and pool,endless gardens and a Tiki Bar Table for up to 6. Outdoor lounge patio furniture. Multiple seating areas, holds up to 25 comfortably BUFFALO: Outdoor dining table, huge outdoor rock fireplace, spa, Tiki bar, gardens, additional patio seating...moreless
2 Tiki Bars with rock slab seats and rock slab counters, Tiki house with a huge fireplace and gigantic rock slab table that seats 15...moreless
- Lawn / Garden
- Outdoor Grill
RatesCurrency Conversion
|Weekend Night
|Monthly *
Nov 23 - Nov 27, 2016
4 night min stay
Dec 18 - Dec 27, 2016
7 night min stay
New Years
Dec 28 - Jan 4, 2017
7 night min stay
My Standard Rate
2 night min stay
Additional information about rental rates
Fees and Rental Conditions:
- cleaning fee $275
- Property Damage Protection $79
- Pet Fee $100
- Tax Rate 9%
Wedding/Event fee $4500 max capacity 100
Wedding cleaning fee $500
Standard cleaning fee $275
Holidays require Longer stays please inquire
Please inquire for more details
Owner's cancellation policy:
100% refund if canceled at least 60 days before arrival date.
Don't forget your vacation protection! Get protected now
Adding our Vacation Protection services can make sure your getaway goes smoothly, no matter what. We offer Cancellation Protection and Damage Protection so you can truly relax.
Holidays and long weekends will require longer minimum stays please call for details.
We also offer Massages, Horseback Riding, Yoga, natural hot springs tour and much more so please inquire with us..
Owner info
Year Purchased: 1901
About the owner: I LOVE Ojai!! I have l thrived here for 20 beautiful whimsical years. I consider myself the ideal connection for my special guests! I know all the most sacred, amazing spots, restaurants, people healers & secrets there are to share. I represent over 20 magical Vacation Rentals in the Ojai Valley & always work hard to find your perfect Abode & experience so that Ojai is a cherished memories in your heart. Please reach out any time so that I can guide you to your Enchanted Vacation in our beautiful Ojai Valley. *** Please call to see our Beautiful official site, lots great Pictures & Info /805 758-0203
Why the Owner Chose Ojai, CA, USA:
ENCHANTED VACATION RENTALS Guests receive access to many valuable services when booking one of our Exclusive homes... * Personalized In-Villa Welcome Greeting and Orientation * Complimentary Early Check Inn & Late Check-Out when available * A private home that is unsurpassed in Quality and Cleanliness * An abundant array of pre-stocked supplies including bountiful numbers of towels, extra linens, paper products *Staff is available onsite for daily maid services. Upon request at cost *High speed wireless Internet access * Extensive supply of good-quality cooking and dining supplies, * Top-quality In-Villa coffee and tea making supplies, herbs, spices & sugars * DVD Collection for your Entertainment * Professional and complimentary Personal Concierge Service AMENITES, Just a phone Call away! * Upon request at cost • Experienced massage therapist on call for instant relaxation * A Complementary LOCAL GIRL MUST SEE, DO & BREATH Itinerary Package *Custom Zen Beauty Facials • In-house Bliss Yoga Session * Private Chef available upon request at cost *Private athletic club with Olympic size pools, workout rooms, tennis courts Steam rooms, spas & restaurant & bar * Personal Shopping Service for groceries and misc. errands upon request at cost *Private Hiking guides to the secret sacred spots in Ojai *Private Bike Guides *Guided Horse Back Riding • Professional personal fitness trainer available for house calls • Portable baby cribs and high chairs Baby on the Go! • Two World Class Golf courses in the area * GOOD VIBES
The Unique Benefits at this Estate:
One of our favorite reviews: I can't even put into words how magical this property is. The house itself, the surroundings, the details - all made for such an unforgettable weekend. For my birthday, my boyfriend and I planned a weekend getaway with some of our closest friends. It ended up being the perfect weekend - literally people left saying "that was the best weekend of my life." The property is very difficult to put into words - clearly the pictures are amazing, but they don't even do it justice. It's so relaxing and peaceful. Someone even voluntarily slept on the hammock outside because it was so tranquil! Ojai itself is magical, and a favorite of ours as far as weekend getaways go (we're from LA)... but we didn't even really feel the need to leave the grounds because it was so lovely to just hang around the pool, on the grass, in the house, BBQing all weekend etc... I highly recommend this property. Both Carla and Lisa were so lovely to work with and very accommodating throughout the process... I know we'll definitely be back at some point in the future. Thank you guys for offering us your lovely home! About the Ranch : This house has been featured on Ojai's Exclusive Garden Tour due to its extraordinary Landscaping and Tropical Gardens! This popular refuge is visited & loved by many famous guests. Now we need you to complete the circle!! Enjoy a glass of wine while viewing Ojai's 'Pink Moment'. It's like heaven on earth. Be sure to bring your entourage!
Contact us
- Primary: +1 (805) 758-0203 (California, USA)
Links to more information:
Master Bed Room with view of mountains
Buffalo Cottage spacious outdoor lawn Horseshoes Wedding anyone??
2 Hammocks in the Jungle
Living Room with two exotic Koi ponds on each side of the fireplace
Buffalo Cottage King Size Featherbed
Buffalo Cottage Outdoor Fireplace
Black Bottom Lagoon Style Pool Pool side palapas ,Rock diving board
Cozy bunkhouse
This listing was first published here in 2006.
Date last modified - Friday, September 30, 2016
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King of Jazz Benny Is Dead, Long Live King of Jazz Sonny
If jazz must have a king, the present ruler is Sonny Rollins. In case anyone doubted his eminence, the rainy season abated for his August 9 concert in the Central Park SummerStage series. He appeared without a pianist, not that he needed one. He was on
such a tear that he may not have needed the Afro-percussionist or the trombonist or the bassist or the drummer, though all augmented a rhythmic fury that allowed him to sustain his opening 90-minute set with three tunes. Arithmetically, he went from 4/4 to 3/4 to 2/4; emotionally, he reached higher and higher, with Bob Cranshaw and Steve Jordan never wavering. The first number was a very-good-plus riff that got the blood racing. The waltz was absolutely primo Rollins, an Italian folk song he calls "Italian Folk Song" because he doesn't know the title, and a beautifully gauged performance that shivered with romance.
And the calypso was off the charts. After a good opening solo and a round-robin by the others, Rollins seemed overextended upon his return, and I wondered why he persisted. Then it became clear that he was not going to surrender the piece until he found something worth searching for, and half an hour later he was playing things that for all I know have never been played on the tenor sax. He even manipulated the lever on the gooseneck in his march to a death-defying catharsis and earthshaking final blast. All of which implied that the way to make common cause with current pop is not to hire a rapper, but to embrace pure rhythm. As well as Italian folk songs.
Sonny Rollins
Central Park SummerStage
August 9
Return to "Benny Carter, 1907-2003: A Gentleman You Didn't Mess With" by Gary Giddins
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Betty and Jimmy Franks of Amarillo celebrated their 50th wedding anniversary with a small family gathering. The event was hosted by the couple's children and spouses, Debbie and Tony Fansler, Rick and Gina Franks and Ed and Kim Franks.
Franks married the former Betty Roberson on June 4, 1957, in Amarillo.
The couple have previously resided in Green River, Wyo. They have lived in Amarillo for 43 years.
Franks is a retired ironworker. He is a union member from Amarillo and Salt Lake City. Mrs. Franks is a financial director for Panhandle Community Services.
The couple belong to River Road Baptist Church. Franks is a member of Masonic Lodge. Mrs. Franks is a member of Order of the Eastern Star.
Grandchildren of the couple are, Brandon Fansler, Brittany Fansler, Trisha Franks, Krista Franks, Megan Franks and Macy Franks.
Amarillo Globe-News, June 10, 2007
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JakartaCCTV is one of the biggest online CCTV store and IT Security in Indonesia . We provide variety of CCTV products with many famous brand for the following categories: :
As one of the pioneers in CCTV and IT Security products, we always provide the best quality with the most competitive price for all of the products available in our store.
To provide and develop high quality IT Security products and bring professional services to our customers.
To become a trusted company with strong lleadership and great management.
To develop and expand distribution networks and partners all around Indonesia
To provide an efficient and productive workspace for employees to improve on their professional skillsets and mindsets while improving on their welfare
No matter where you are located, JakartaCCTV is always ready to service your requirement. We have many partners for delivery, one of them is JNE and they will always be able to deliver your goods to any location in Indonesia.
Online shopping made easy through our website : www.jakartaCCTV.co.id. Just add the one you like to the shopping cart, and choose your method of payments. Simple and fast. Once the payment has been received by us, we will start the packing and the shipping. Our site is available for access anytime and is available in multiple languages.
To make payment, you can select from one of the 4 bank account available, bank BCA, bank Mandiri, Bank BRI and Bank BNI. Checking of payment status will be done as soon as possible during the office hours from Monday to Saturday. Once the payment has been verified, we will start the process for faster shipment to your place.
Besides purchasing directly from our website, you can also contact us anytime using other communication methods available : Phone, SMS, Fax, Email and direct Chat from our website. During office hour, all of our customer service officers are always available to serve you with quick and to the point solution.Because we understand that customer satisfaction is the key to successful relationship, that's why we will always strive to excel ourselves in term of quality service.
If you are wondering about our After Sales Service policy, dont worry! Because we always take care of our customers, especially for service and claims. For service claims, you can send the goods to us, and our after sales officer will process the request immediately. Our promise is the after sales service, and to most of our customers, it is one of the key factors why they never look elsewhere for their CCTV and IT Security needs.


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The Conquistador Hotel & Conference is located in the heart of Guatemala City's financial district just a five minute drive from the city's most prestigious shopping. This recently renovated hotel offers guest accommodations designed with an elegant combination of earth tones with wood and iron forged on green bronze to maintain a colonial look. The Conquistador Hotel features conference facilities for up to 1500 delegates with fourteen meeting and function rooms for groups of 4-600 people.
Rooms at the Conquistador Hotel are spacious and include king beds, safe deposit boxes, wireless Internet, newspapers and magazines, 2 pieces of laundry per day, cable TV and air-conditioning. The hotel also includes a pool surrounded by gardens, a SPA and gym, sauna, room service and various restaurants and bars.
Cancellation / Prepayment
Children and extra beds
- Air Condition
- Bar
- Business Center
- Cable
- Conference
- Convention Facilities
- Desk
- Free toiletries
- Hairdryer
- Ironing board
- Jacuzzi
- Laundry
- Lounges/bars
- Non-smoking rooms
- Parking
- Restaurant
- Room service
- Safety Deposit Box
- Sauna
- Seating area
- Shower
- Spa
- Swimming Pool
- Telephone
- WiFi Internet
Guatemala City
Guatemala's Capital is the largest city in Central America. Fast paced and vibrant, Guatemala City or Guate as it's referred to locally is a interesting blend of old and new and possesses a distinct Latin charm. Today, Guatemala City has more than two million inhabitants. Its location, facilities and the only International Airport La Aurora (GUA) make it the starting point for visits to the rest of Guatemala.
Guatemala City was founded in 1776, after a devastating earthquake destroyed the former Spanish capital of Central America, "La Cuidad de Santiago de los Caballeros de Guatemala", known today as Antigua Guatemala (or simply Antigua). Sitting on top of three tectonic plates, Guatemala City is spread out in a valley with the Agua volcano reigning on its horizon.
Guatemala City has an active cultural life throughout the year. Most of the country's Museums are to be found here. There are also more than 30 galleries showing Guatemalan artists in painting, photography, engraving and sculpture. Theaters present a wide range of plays, especially national playwrights.
Visitors interested in handicraft will find them in the Central Market, located a block away from the Cathedral. At the Central Market you will not only find unique Guatemalan handicrafts, but also see the colorful variety of local flowers, fruits and vegetables. The Relief Map in Minerva Park is a good place to see the extension of Guatemala and if you have never been to Paris you should visit "Torre El Reformador", the world's only scale replica of the Eiffel Tower.
Read more


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Runners in Boston getting a photo memory before the race.
Runners arrived early in Hopkinton, preparing for what would be a very warm day. Some of the 27,000 registered runners opted to take up the organizers' offer to defer their entry until the 2013 race.
Waiting in Hopkinton with temperatures forecast in the upper 80s
Because of the heat, public safety officials brought in water for the runners.
A runner getting a massage before the race.
Early spectators waiting in Boston.
Security at the starting line at Hopkinton
With a temperature forecast in the upper 80s, there was water, water everywhere
Last minute hydrating.
Temperatures had been expected to rival 1976, when 40 percent of entrants dropped out when it broke into the mid-90s.
Trying to relax before the race.
A runner grabs water before the race in Hopkinton.
Cups of water for the runners
Getting cups with sports, energy drink ready along the course.
Spectators with umbrellas to protect themselves from the sun.
Cases of water awaited runners at the finish line in Boston
Misting tents along the course.
A temperature sign early in the morning.
Stretchers ready at Natick Fire HQ
Natick Firefighters adjusting hoses that were to be used to cool down the runners, next to the misting tent.
Boston Marathon walkers.
In Wellesley, the DPW opened the hydrants to mist the runners.
Allison Roe, the 1981 Boston Marathon women's champion, fires the starters pistol for the elite women's start of the 116th running of the Boston Marathon, in Hopkinton.
A long, hot walk.
Spectators waiting and getting some shade.
Security at the finish line.
A backyard thermometer in Easton.
A volunteer gets the finish line ready.
Michael Leibold, from Germany, reaches out to spectators at the start
The sign says it all in Hopkinton
A wheelchair racer blows kisses to the crowd.
Joshua Cassidy, of Canada, crosses the finish line in world record time of 1:18:25
Joshua Cassidy of Canada won the men's wheelchair in world record time.
Cassidy broke the record of former champion Ernst Van Dyk.
Cassidy after the race with flowers.
A runner douses himself with water.
A runner pours water on his head before the race.
Runners getting water along the course.
A runner waves a flag along the course.
A runner being taken to Newton-Wellesley Hospital
A runner being treated at the medical tent in Wellesley.
A runner carries a bottle of water win him.
Women's wheelchair winner Shirley Reilly crosses the finish line 1 second ahead of Wakako Tsuchida. Reilly's winning time was 1:37:36
A runner is taken from the course in Newton.
Anything to stay out of the sun.
Hats were essential for spectators
Runners get wet towels in Wellesley.
Kids play in a misting station along the course.
Kids with ice for runners in Newton
A runner is taken to the hospital after suffering an asthma attack.
A runner goes through the misting tent in Newton.
A volunteer dumps water on a runner in Newton.
A runner on the ground in Wellesley.
A runner on a stretcher in Wellesley.
A runner splashes water on his face in Wellesley.
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People of different backgrounds can connect as well as learn from each other.
The migration of South Asians to the UK began with the arrival of East India Trading Company to the Indian Subcontinent. The influx of South Asians increased during the British Raj and the independence of India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh from the British Rule.
Working and settling in and around the nation's industrial towns and cities, they gradually created cultural hotspots and thriving communities for themselves. Businesses have shot up rapidly with their arrival. From everything to grocers, restaurants and takeaways to clothes and entertainment.
South Asians rose from an initial 70,000 people at the beginning of the twentieth century to a sizeable 2.5 million today. They now contribute to 6% of the nation's GDP.
With the strong presence of South Asian communities and their noticeable contribution to local life, they have had plenty of coverage and attraction in the media, including documentaries in literature, art, music, academic writing. They have also been in the reports of local councils and other organisations, and in tourist brochures and festivals.
Birmingham is home to wide array of Asian communities, and it is growing at a rapid rate each year. Soho Road, home to any of the Indian Sikh community is a bustling attraction of clothing shops and restaurants. Ladypool Road, Stratford Road and Alum Rock Road are some of the cultural epicentres of the South Asian community.
Of course, Birmingham is also famous for its 'Balti Triangle' in Small Heath and Sparkhill. There are over 50 restaurants that house the best Indian foods and balti's.
The balti came to Birmingham in the 1970's due to the large migration of Pakistani and Kashmiri settlers. Ever since, the Triangle has attracted thousands of customers each year and has grown into a multi-million pound industry.
Leicester enjoys the highest ethnic minority population in the whole of the UK, at almost 30%. Pakistani's and Indian sects form the biggest communities, including Gujrati's, Kokni's and African descended Asians.
It's famous Melton Road is also referred to as the 'Golden Mile' because of it's never-ending jewellery counters and stores. Indian restaurants and takeaways and colourful shops are also in great abundance.
Interestingly, the city is also home to the highest number of young British Asians under the age of 21. As a result the city is constantly updating to suit the newer generations.
Bradford is an incredibly Asian-populated city, known as one of the British 'Curry Capitals'. It is recognised globally for it's rich culture.
Although most immigrants came originally to work in the mills, the failure of the textiles industry (which ironically was partly due to increased competition from India, South East Asia and the Far East), led to the people moving to other jobs and work. Bradford is also home to a number of Asian festivals and organisations.
One particular interest to the visitors of Bradford are the impressive mosques, and its famous curry houses and restaurants. There are also a wide range of Indian stores, boutiques and markets selling exquisite saris and materials. This includes the world-famous 'Bombay Stores', which is the UK's largest Asian department store!
Mohammed Ajeeb has lived in Bradford for forty years. As Lord Mayor of Bradford in 1985-6, he was the first Asian Lord Mayor in Britain. He says:
"Bradford means everything to me. Bradford gave me status and respect. It gave me some problems too. It is my home. It is my city. There is a large community with which I can identify myself."
Stand-up comedian Isma Almas grew up on a council estate in Bradford as one of the first Asian families to live there. She then returned to the city after going away to university. Although she remembers the riots and protests, she still feels safe there: "Bradford feels like a safe place to be," she says.
Travel further north to Manchester and Wimslow Road is definitely bound to cross your path at some point. It has rapidly become a central hangout for young British Asians due to the rising number of sheesha and dessert places.
But it's best known for the 'Curry Mile' due to the huge number of restaurants dotted around Rusholme.
With more than 70 restaurants and takeaways open until the early hours of the morning, it is thought to be the biggest collection of South Asian cuisine outside of the Indian subcontinent.
London, of course, is home to a multifarious assortment of Indian's, Pakistani's, Bangladeshi's and Sri Lankan's that together, represent a remarkable 12% of Greater London's residents.
As a result, the capital is home to numerous hotspots and areas that cater for the South Asian lifestyle.
Brick Lane is one such hotspot. Interestingly, it is known historically as the home to many immigrants, including Huguenots from France, the Jews and the Irish, and, more recently, its Bangladeshi population.
Today, it is the heart of the city's Bangladeshi-Sylheti community and nicknamed 'Banglatown'. It is famous for its many curry houses. In the later 20th century, Bangladeshi's formed the majority group of immigrants and gradually dominated the area.
There are many attractions in Brick Lane, including it's markets, shops, galleries, bars and restaurants and famous festivals.
Monica Ali's best-selling book, Brick Lane, was based on the the lives of first generation Asians moving to the area.
It has evolved into an exciting art and fashion hub for students over the years. Like Shoreditch,it features numerous exhibition spaces. Interestingly, the area is also internationally famous for its graffiti. Banksy, D*Face and Ben Eine have all etched their art onto it's walls.
Southall is famous for it's thriving Punjabi community, with street festivals celebrating their vibrant culture. It is sometimes known as 'Little India', and is renowned for Southall Broadway's Indian shops, cinemas and restaurants.
It's population initially grew due to opportunities available and expanding employment. It's location has also been used in Bollywood films such as Patiala House and Goal!
Harrow is a diverse borough, and has the largest concentration of Sri Lankan Tamils and the highest density of Gujarati Hindus in the UK. Harrow is renowned for it's large South Asian festival, 'Under One Sky', which celebrates music, dance, sports and more.
The spread of South Asians across the UK and the rest of the world have had a huge and continuing impact on both culture and urban development. People of different backgrounds can connect as well as learn from each other and share experiences.
With more and more communities building and expanding, what we do know for sure, is that cultural diversity in Britain is here to stay.


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—Bill James (author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts)
The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail-but Some Don'tby Nate Silver
View All Available Formats & Editions
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite/b>/i>/b>/b>/b>/i>/b>
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
New York Times Bestseller
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
Product Details
- 9781101595954
- Publisher:
- Penguin Publishing Group
- Publication date:
- 09/27/2012
- Sold by:
- Penguin Group
- Format:
- NOOK Book
- Pages:
- 544
- Sales rank:
- 85,075
- File size:
What People are saying about this
—Bill James (author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts)
—Peter Orszag (former director of the Office of Management and Budget)
—Rachel Maddow (author of Drift)
—Richard Thaler (co-author of Nudge)
—Governor Jon Huntsman
Meet the Author
Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
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*A full executive summary of this book will be available at newbooksinbrief . wordpress . com, on or before Monday, October 15, 2012. Making decisions based on an assessment of future outcomes is a natural and inescapable part of the human condition. Indeed, as Nate Silver points out, "prediction is indispensable to our lives. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set money aside for a rainy day, we are making a forecast about how the future will proceed--and how our plans will affect the odds for a favorable outcome" (loc. 285). And over and above these private decisions, prognosticating does, of course, bleed over into the public realm; as indeed whole industries from weather forecasting, to sports betting, to financial investing are built on the premise that predictions of future outcomes are not only possible, but can be made reliable. As Silver points out, though, there is a wide discrepancy across industries and also between individuals regarding just how accurate these predictions are. In his new book `The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't' Silver attempts to get to the bottom of all of this prediction-making to uncover what separates the accurate from the misguided. In doing so, the author first takes us on a journey through financial crashes, political elections, baseball games, weather reports, earthquakes, disease epidemics, sports bets, chess matches, poker tables, and the good ol' American economy, as we explore what goes into a well-made prediction and its opposite. The key teaching of this journey is that wise predictions come out of self-awareness, humility, and attention to detail: lack of self-awareness causes us to make predictions that tell us what we'd like to hear, rather than what is true (or most likely the case); lack of humility causes us to feel more certain than is warranted, leading us to rash decisions; and lack of attention to detail (in conjunction with self-serving bias and rashness) leads us to miss the key variables that make all the difference. Attention to detail is what we need to capture the signal in the noise (the key variable[s] in the sea of data and information that are integral in determining future outcomes), but without self-awareness and humility, we don't even stand a chance. In the final stage of the book Silver explores how the lessons that he lays out can be applied to such issues as global warming, terrorism and bubbles in financial markets. Unfortunately, each of these fields is a lot noisier than many of us would like to think (thus making them very difficult to predict precisely). Nevertheless, the author argues, within each there are certain signals that can help us make better predictions regarding them, and which should help make the world a safer and more livable place. If you are hoping that this book will make you a fool-proof prognosticator, you are going to be disappointed. A key tenet of the book is that this is simply not possible (no matter what field you are in). That being said, Silver makes a very strong argument that by applying a few simple principles (and putting in a lot of hard work in identifying key variables) our predictive powers should take a great boost indeed. A full executive summary of this book will be available at newbooksinbrief . wordpress . com, on or before Monday, October 15; a podcast discussion of the book will be available shortly thereafter.
I teach probability and statistics and really wanted to like this book, but Nate Silver is NOT on expert on statistics and probability and makes some pretty big errors as a consequence. Chapter 8 completely fails in its explanation of the controversy between classical and Bayesian methods. In other chapters, Silver seems to believe that anyone who revises his/her beliefs based on new information is using Bayes's theorem. Bayes's theorem involves reasoning based on how likely the information is if the hypothesis is true versus how likely the information is if the hypothesis is false.
Silver draws on a wide range of activities with examples from poker, sports, finance, etc. that involve his own experiences and interviews with others. His goal is to uncover significant principles and factors and not to expound a specific theory. The book is well organized and easy to read.
I enjoyed reading this book and the author's efforts to sort out all the predictions that we encounter in daily life. I needed to learn to put down the book after finishing a chapter so that I could absorb the points being made. Wish that the book would have been around when I was taking statistics. Certainly he gave a lot of encouragement to thinking about probabilities rather than just doing counts.
A very well-written and fascinating presentation on why some predictions work and many others fail. If you're at all interested in politics, economics, disease spread, terrorism, the stock market, weather, earthquakes, baseball, chess or poker you'll be captivated by The Signal and the Noise. I'm primarily a fiction reader, but found this book to be as much or more of a page turner than many "thrillers." Although the book is written for the layman, you'll have an easier time with it if you have a solid grounding in fundamental mathematics and statistics. Bottom line: if you're curious about the world we live in and why some events are easier to predict than others, I highly recommend this book.
I was inspired to do some research on Bayes' theorem after finishing the text. Footnotes and references make up a large part of the book, but are gathered at the end, not within the text.
Nate Silver, has taken time out to write an eye opening book. Before reading this book I had taken prediction for granted, but after reading it, I have come to appreciate the effort that goes into prediction and also how we are surrounded with predictions. It has also helped improve my prediction ability, because those that predict rightly, controls the future and ultimately wins in the long run.
I finished reading "The Signal and the Noise" a couple of weeks ago, and although I enjoyed it as I read it, I find that it is already fading into the background of other related books that I have read. Occasionally I come across a book that requires re-reading and pondering, but this is not one of them. On the other hand, if you are new to this discussion, Mr. Silver does a good job of organizing and summarizing the problems with making accurate and reliable predictions. My summary of the book (and of the field of predicting the future): Predict that tomorrow will be pretty much like today, and you will have a very high accuracy rate, but you'll be BOOOOORRRIIINNNGG. Predict great and dramatic changes, and you will usually miss, but if you do it in an authoritative and entertaining fashion, you'll get lots of attention anyway.
Some very interesting and useful concepts are explained. In particular the usefulness of Bayes Theorum for refining predictions is clearly set forth. The book needs editing. The same ground seems to be covered over and over. If you are short of time you could read just those chapters that deal with an area of your interest: gambling, weather, epidemics, or terrorism. I predict that 20% of those who start the book will not finish it.


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Arkansas Razorbacks Rumors & News
NCAA Rumors
ESPN's Matt Barrie: Alabama is not college football's top team; Auburn firing Gus Malzahn would be a 'mistake'
Men's Soccer: Lobos lose C-USA opener as 5-game winning streak ends
Pac-12 Football: The best highlights from week four
State of the Hogs: Effort better than first believed
Who is Jochen Wiest? Information about man accused of setting tree fire at Toomer's Corner
BYU notebook: BYU defense to face another up-tempo offense this week vs. Toledo
Scoreboard-Watching: How Boston College Opponents Fared
Multiple Weekly Honors For Both UConn Soccer Teams
Gators QB Luke Del Rio 'highly doubtful' for Vanderbilt game
UGA DL Ledbetter remains suspended for Tennessee, but is 'doing really great'
4-star wing Justin Smith commits to IU
Missouri State QB defends himself against animal abuse claims; QB was suspended before K-State game
Lunch with DACOACHO 9/26/16 - Mizzou 2016
Ravens vs. Jaguars Week 3 report card: Defense/special teams
ProCanes NFL Recap: Week 3
CB Jeremy Clark (ACL) is out for the season, Michigan will try to get him a 6th year
Wisconsin football: OLB T.J. Watt named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week
Minnesota Football vs Penn State: BELL WEEK IS HERE!!!
Week 5: Missouri travels to Death Valley
UGA DL Ledbetter remains suspended for Tennessee, but is 'doing really great'
In players-only meeting, Oregon Ducks say 'it's time to grow up' after Colorado loss
Gary Andersen done with 'attaboys and go play real hard': Press conference highlights
Anthony Davis, ex Rutgers star, again retires from 49ers over concussion concerns
The Feed Pail, September 26, 2016: Muschamp Says They're Evaluating the Offense, Women's Soccer Beats Kentucky, and more
Syracuse University reportedly negotiating new naming rights for the Carrier Dome
Daily Bull 9.26.16: Goodbye Les Miles
Mountain West announces kickoff time for UNLV-San Diego State game
JuJu Smith-Schuster's targets increased in Sam Darnold's debut as USC's starting QB
Utes, Cal to present a clash of styles on offense
Opponent Offense Preview: Stanford
WSU football recruiting: Charles Watson, a three-star DB from Hawaii, de-commits
Video: Wisconsin prepares for potent Michigan offense
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John Richcommented on a video on YouTube.
My dad (Ken Rich) was the lead singer/song writer/guitarist for My Friends. He's still kicking and making great music (my humble opinion as his son;-) Anyway, I'll update this with some links to what he's doing now. I'm sure he would get a kick from this thread and I'll email him the link now.
John Rich


text:
Peanut Butter, Lettuce and Mayo Sandwich
Total Time
Prep 5 mins
Cook 0 mins
My mom used to make these sandwiches for lunch when I was younger.
Ingredients Nutrition
- 2 slice white bread
- 14.79 ml mayonnaise
- 14.79 ml peanut butter
- 2 lettuce leaves
- Spread one side of bread with mayonnaise (Best Foods AKA Hellman's preferred).
- Place lettuce on mayonnaise.
- Spread other piece of bread with peanut butter. Sandwich together and enjoy.
Most Helpful
I too grew up on PB, Mayo and lettuce sandwiches (or just PB and Mayo) Love them, somtimes I just crave one LOL. I also like PB, Mayo and Dill Pickle... I like it even better than with lettuce! Thanks for posting and letting me know I wasn't the only child raised on them. (I guess my mother was raised on them too).
comfort food from my youth....still eat and love this sandwich to this day!
I finally worked up the nerve to try this sandwich. Never had a peanut butter sandwich like this before. Not bad actually it tasted pretty good. Thanks looneytunesfan. Bullwinkle.