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*The extracts on this page are taken from various newspapers and media outlets. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Aston Villa.
Sky Sports: Paul Lambert is hoping his Aston Villa side can rediscover their best home form against Manchester City on Saturday. Villa Park has been anything but a fortress since Lambert took charge of the club at the start of last season. Lambert has orchestrated just five home victories from 21 Premier League games, notably chalking up nine defeats in the last 13 stretching back towards the end of December. The run includes defeats to Liverpool and Newcastle already in front of the Villa supporters, while the club were unceremoniously dumped out of the Capital One Cup by visiting Tottenham in midweek, who are the next visitors on October 20 after City.
ESPN: Paul Lambert wants Aston Villa to end their disappointing form in front of their own supporters and punish Manchester City if they field a weakened team ahead of their Champions League meeting with Bayern Munich. Stoke City manager Mark Hughes suggested two weeks ago that City manager Manuel Pellegrini had made a mistake in his team selection for the 0-0 draw at the Britannia Stadium -- ahead of City's first Champions League group game against Viktoria Plzen. It remains to be seen what side Pellegrini will select for the visit to Villa Park, where Lambert's side have lost nine times in their last 13 home games, but the Scot believes his team are capable of inflicting damage on City's title aspirations if the Chilean coach tinkers with his line-up on Saturday.
Express & Star: Villa boss Paul Lambert today revealed Christian Benteke could return within the next three weeks. The striker is recovering from a hip injury and was initially ruled out for up to six weeks. Benteke tweeted yesterday he is already off his crutches less than a week after suffering the setback at Norwich. And Lambert hopes the five-goal striker could be fit to face Tottenham on October 20.
Birmingham Mail: Christian Benteke has potentially halved the timeframe of his injury lay-off and could face Tottenham in three weeks if he continues his rapid rate of recovery. Villa expect Gabby Agbonlahor, Fabian Delph, Antonio Luna and Ciaran Clark to return from injury for Saturday's match against Manchester City. Ashley Westwood is targeting next weekend's trip to Hull after picking up a thigh strain - the first real injury of his fledgling career. Villa feared Benteke would be out for a hefty length of time and, even after the scans on his hip flexor problem this week, estimated a six-week lay-off. The 22-year-old targetman tweeted on Thursday that he is already off his crutches and Paul Lambert admitted Villa's Belgium top scorer was targeting a quickfire return in three weeks. If Benteke is able to return for the Sunday, October 20, home game against Spurs, it would mean missing just two Premier League matches, against Manchester City and Hull.
ESPN: Paul Lambert is hopeful Christian Benteke will be able to return to action at Aston Villa quicker than doctors first indicated. Benteke was told to expect to be out of action for up to six weeks, after damaging a hip flexor muscle in last Saturday's 1-0 victory over Norwich City. On Thursday, the Belgian international wrote on his twitter account he is walking much better and without the need for crutches -- and Lambert is hopeful the striker will be back in action for Villa after the international break next month.
Teamtalk: Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert is hoping striker Christian Benteke will return to action sooner than originally anticipated from a hip injury. The Belgium international incurred the problem in Saturday's 1-0 win at Norwich and the original prognosis saw him ruled out for up to six weeks. But Lambert has issued an upbeat assessment on Benteke's condition and is hopeful he may be back in action for the home game with Everton on 26 October.
Irish Independent: Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini claims next week's clash with European champions Bayern Munich is not yet occupying his thoughts. Pellegrini wants to focus on the weekend Barclays Premier League trip to Aston Villa before switching his attention to Wednesday's glamour Champions League tie at the Etihad Stadium. City attracted some criticism after labouring to a goalless draw at Stoke a fortnight ago, three days before their last Champions League outing. Potters boss Mark Hughes suggested Pellegrini had prioritised the wrong game after making six changes at the Britannia Stadium. But even though Pellegrini has confirmed Sergio Aguero will not be risked at Villa Park after a knock, the Chilean insists his quest for top spot is priority this weekend.
Birmingham Mail: Leandro Bacuna will continue to push Matt Lowton for the right-back role at Aston Villa as Paul Lambert's team prepare to face in-form Manchester City. Bacuna impressed in that position during last weekend's win at Norwich after Lowton was dropped for the first time in his claret and blue career. Lowton remains Villa's main specialist on the right side of defence - with Alan Hutton still out of favour and Chris Herd on the periphery after injury - and manager Lambert has tipped the former Sheffield United defender to recover from his disappointment. But the versatile Bacuna has staked a strong claim to keep his Premier League place at the back despite shifting to midfield, with Lowton returning, in the midweek cup defeat to Tottenham. The Dutch U21 international, signed from Groningen in the summer, played an important part in Villa's rare clean sheet at Carrow Road and did a solid containing job on Canaries winger Nathan Redmond. Bacuna is happy to continue at right-back if Lambert so wishes and admits the competition between himself and Lowton should keep their standards at a high level.
Daily Mirror: Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has been boosted by the return of several players ahead of this weekend's clash with Manchester City. Gabriel Agbonlahor returns to the squad, while Fabian Delph, Andreas Weimann, Ciaran Clark and Antonio Luna should also feature. Speaking ahead of the game, Lambert said: "You need to win your home games. "You should have a good solid base at home, but we seem to be doing it the other way around at the moment, winning away from home, and finding it hard at home. I don't know why that is. It's strange." Villa will still be without Christian Benteke who is suffering from a hip injury and Ashley Westwood (thigh), while Jores Okore (knee), Charles N'Zogbia (Achilles) and Gary Gardner (back) are long-term casualties.
Daily Mirror: Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini is set to be without Sergio Aguero as his team line up against Aston Villa this weekend. Joint top-scorer Aguero took a knock in the latter stages of the Manchester derby last Sunday and is unlikely to be used during Wednesday's Champions League clash with Bayern Munich. City will hope to replicate the performance that they gave last time out in the Premier League, when they saw off Manchester United with a convincing 4-1 victory. But talisman David Silva (thigh) is still out but could return against Bayern and Martin Demichelis (knee) remains on the sidelines and has still not played a match since joining from Atletico Madrid in the summer.
ESPN: Sergio Aguero will miss Manchester City's trip to Aston Villa but manager Manuel Pellegrini is confident he will be fit to face Bayern Munich on Wednesday. The Argentina striker was injured during last week's 4-1 derby win over Manchester United, when he scored twice. And both he and midfielder David Silva, who has a thigh problem, will be unavailable for the visit to Villa Park.
Goal.com: Aston Villa manager Paul Lambert has hit back at claims that his side only play long-ball football. The Villans have come in for criticism this season for their style of play, with Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho among those to question their tactics after a 2-1 victory over Lambert's side in August. Those sentiments were echoed by Tottenham coach Andre Villas-Boas after the London club came through their Capital One Cup third-round clash with a 4-0 win on Tuesday but the Scot was not happy with either manager's comments and, ahead of the Premier League fixture with Manchester City on Saturday, claims that his side merely play to their strengths. "It's detrimental to say things like that," Lambert told the press.
Express & Star: Boss Paul Lambert today hit back at Andre Villas-Boas and insisted Villa are not a long ball team. The claret and blues chief has defended his style after Tottenham chief Villas-Boas labelled them direct following his side's 4-0 League Cup win on Tuesday. He became the second manager after Jose Mourinho to issue a veiled dig at Villa with the Chelsea boss also claiming they are one dimensional. Villa host Manchester City tomorrow aiming to respond from Tuesday's loss when Villas-Boas said they were "aggressive, used long balls and were direct" - something which has angered Lambert. "That's detrimental to say that. I don't agree with that," he said.
Daily Express: Paul Lambert has hit back at Jose Mourinho and Andre Villas-Boas after they both labelled Aston Villa a long-ball team. Villas-Boas was the latest to have a go after Tottenham's 4-0 Capital One Cup win at Villa on Tuesday and Mourinho did the same after Villa pushed Chelsea hard at Stamford Bridge. "It's detrimental to say things like that," said Lambert. "If you look at your stats, how many long balls Chelsea played against us, I'm pretty sure we weren't ahead of them. "We might play a long pass but we don't just kick it up front and hope for the best. It's not right to say that about us. We try to pass it and try to play football in the right way."
Daily Mirror: Paul Lambert has slammed claims his Aston Villa are a long-ball side, after Spurs counterpart Andre Villas-Boas branded them direct. Chelsea manager Jose Mourinho suggested Villa play only "one way" after his Blues beat them in August. And Tottenham's Villas-Boas weighed into the debate after their midweek Capital One Cup win at Villa Park. Villas-Boas said: "Villa were very, very aggressive - long balls and direct." Unhappy manager Lambert responded: "We find that a bit wrong saying that. We don't play that way at all. We don't just kick it upfront and hope for the best. "We don't have the players to play long balls - we might play a long pass. I think it is detrimental to say things like that and I don't agree with that. "Ashley Westwood, Fabian Delph, Antonio Luna, Karim El Ahmadi - they are footballers, we don't have lads to go and play long. Even if Christian Benteke plays, we don't play long. "Don't tell me we are a big side, other than maybe Christian and Nathan Baker. We try and pass it. Even in training."
Express & Star: After their Tottenham terrors, Brad Guzan has vowed Villa will not suffer a Manchester mauling. The keeper insists Villa will attack Manchester City tomorrow and not shirk their responsibilities. Manuel Pellegrini's free-scoring outfit have hit nine goals in two games after a crushing 4-1 Manchester derby win and a 5-0 thumping of Wigan in the League Cup. In contrast Villa were dumped out 4-0 by rampant Spurs on Tuesday amid an injury crisis. Guzan watched from the bench as Jed Steer tried to keep Tottenham at bay with boss Paul Lambert forced into seven changes. Gabby Agbonlahor (ankle), Ciaran Clark (thigh), Andi Weimann (rested) and Antonio Luna could all return tomorrow after missing the Spurs defeat. Christian Benteke, though, is out for up to six weeks with a hip injury in a major blow to Villa's early season hopes. But Guzan, fresh from his first clean sheet in 27 league games - after last week's 1-0 win at Norwich - said Villa will not roll over against City.
Clubcall: Aston Villa boss Paul Lambert has vowed to end his side's horror home record. Villa Park has been anything but a fortress since Lambert took charge of the club at the start of last season. From 21 Barclays Premier League matches on home soil under Lambert, Villa have won just five, notably chalking up nine defeats in the last 13 stretching back towards the end of December.
Birmingham Mail: Aston Villa midfielder Ashley Westwood is set to miss tomorrow's match against Manchester City with the first real injury of his career. But manager Paul Lambert is hopeful that the midfielder will be fit enough to return for the trip to Hull next weekend. A thigh strain kept Westwood out of the claret and blues' Premier League win at Norwich and Capital One Cup defeat to Tottenham and the City game is likely to come too soon for the 23-year-old. Lambert admits the former Crewe favourite has enjoyed an injury-free career up until now. "That's been a major blow losing Westy as well," said Lambert.
Best of the Rest
BBC Sport: Tottenham manager Andre Villas-Boas has no regrets about the breakdown of his friendship with former mentor and Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho. Villas-Boas, 35, worked under Mourinho for seven years at Porto, Chelsea and Inter Milan and faces him for the first time when the Blues visit White Hart Lane on Saturday.
Sky Sports: Brendan Rodgers wants to keep Liverpool inside the top six before dipping back into the transfer market in January. The Reds made the best possible start to their 2013-14 campaign, with three successive 1-0 wins taking them to the top of the Premier League standings.
BBC Sport: Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger says he is "honoured" to receive the backing of owner Stan Kroenke and that it would not take much to extend his reign. Kroenke has said he is proud of 63-year-old Wenger and wants the Frenchman to stay for the long term.
*The extracts on this page are taken from various newspapers and media outlets. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Aston Villa.
Emile strikes late.


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No. 1-ranked Trojans peaking at the right time on baseball diamond
By Andrew Stevens
Published in Sports on April 18, 2013 1:47 PM
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30-60-90-Day Plan FAQs
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'Lego Movie' sequel assembles 2017 release date, one month before 'Despicable Me 3'
With the original still going strong, the pieces are being put in place for the next one
While we already knew that a "Lego Movie" sequel was in the works, according to Deadline we now know when we can expect to see it in theaters, and it isn't going to be until 2017. Yes, 2017 -- May 26, 2017 be specific. For those looking at their calendars, May 26, 2017 is indeed the Friday of Memorial Day Weekend.
Despite it being more than three years away, a number of movies have already scoped out dates for that summer. The family-oriented fare for that late spring-early summer already "Despicable Me 3," which is going to hit theaters on June 30th of 2017.
The first "Lego Movie," opened on February 7th of this year and has already taken in more than 151 million dollars at the domestic box office, a number which will certainly go higher. Jared Stern and Michelle Morgan are currently working on the script for the sequel, but there is no word as of yet if Phil Lord and Chris Miller will be returning as directors.
It is still, obviously, a number of years away, but you can be sure that we will continue to bring you news of the movie as it comes in.


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The common thread between all of the M projects was Pajo's expressive, nearly eerie guitar playing. Backed at times by gentle, wave-like rhythms and the hum of synths and keyboards, the music had a mesmerizing quality to it, while conveying images of great expanses of space. Notable projects include a split single with Laetitia Sadier under the name M Is the Thirteenth Letter (on Palace Records in 1995) and three full-length albums on the Drag City label: the self-titled Aerial M, released in 1997, Post Global Music, released in 1999 as Aerial M, and Live from a Shark's Cage, the first album released under the Papa M name, in 1999. Sings followed two years later. Papa M released a string of singles in the 2000s as well as the full-lengths Whatever, Mortal (2001) and Hole of Burning Alms (2004). He switched to the Pajo moniker for 2005's self-titled album and the following year's 1968. ~ Stacia Proefrock
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Locked Out of LTV Tower Redo, Developer Sends City Council a Very Pointed Letter Today
Curtis Lockey and Craig MacKenzie, erstwhile developers of the LTV Tower 1600 Pacific Building and subjects of my column in the current edition of the paper, have sent to Dallas City Council members and city staffers a letter alleging deliberate discrimination against low-income persons and families on the part of -- you guessed it -- the Dallas City Council and the city officials to whom the letter is addressed.
This has to do with Forest City's Continental Building project. Last week there was a hearing in a back room at the Dallas Public Library, attended by me and about three other people, at which Forest City presented its new, suddenly very revised plan for the Continental, calling for lots of affordable housing spread all over the building in an even mix of one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments.
But up until that hearing, as MacKenzie and Lockey document in their letter (signed by Lockey and available after the jump), the Dallas City Council had approved a Forest City plan calling for scanty few affordable units at the Continental, all of them one bedrooms "at the back of the bus" on the rear façade of the building facing an alley.
Families need not apply.
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MacKenzie and Lockey got hold of that scheme only through an Open Records demand. I would guess that last week's very revised Forest City plan was the result of somebody looking at the kind of quite unfriendly questions the city has been getting from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development since Lockey and Mackenzie started raising Cain about the Dallas City Hall's deliberate flouting of federal rules for HUD-supported projects.
The rules call for a lot more affordable units than Dallas has produced. How many has Dallas produced? The city wouldn't answer that question for me directly, but I did come across a city council briefing last year in which assistant city manager A.C. Gonzales told the council the number of affordable units downtown in HUD-supported projects was zero. Zip. None.
Hundreds of millions of dollars in HUD money spent downtown over 20 years. HUD guidelines say buildings subsidized with that money should be 51-percent affordable. And ours are at zero percent?
Man. Those dudes at HUD are suckers, eh? We should all apply for HUD money. I'm going to spend mine on kayaks. But I will be careful to stipulate that these are HUD-supported kayaks. Yes, sir, you bet.
The fact that Forest City completely revised its original plan and agreed to do lots more affordable at the Continental may be a signal some people are thinking of taking another tack. I think its called contrition. I hope they don't have the same problem I always do with contrition. I'm always late.Curtis Lockey's Letter to Dallas City Council
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Our Research
The School of English has an exceptionally strong research record, and was described in a recent external review as 'research intensive.' Members of the teaching staff publish regularly in all areas of current teaching and research activity and there are currently strengths in medieval and early modern, eighteenth-, nineteenth-, and twentieth-century literature, as well as contemporary writing, popular literature, Gothic, American and postcolonial literature. Irish writing in English, 1590-present is an area of particular strength. Members of the School are also active as distinguished creative writers of poetry and fiction.
Members of the School of English are general editors of important publishing ventures. Professor John Scattergood is editor of the Dublin Studies in Medieval and Renaissance Literature series (Dublin: Four Courts), which has published five titles to date. Professor Ian Campbell Ross is General Editor of The Literature of Early Modern Ireland series (Dublin: Four Courts Press), which has published six titles to date, with others in preparation. Professor Ian Campbell Ross and Dr Aileen Douglas, along with Dr Moyra Haslett of the School of English, Queen's University Belfast, are joint general editors of the Early Irish Fiction, c. 1660 - c. 1820 series (Dublin: Four Courts Press), which has published five titles to date, with further titles in preparation.
A Creole Experiment: Utopian Space in Kamau Brathwaite's
The World as Province: Selected Prose 1980-2008
Virtue Rewarded; or, The Irish Princess
The Suburban Gothic in American Popular Culture, (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)
Among recent books published by members of the School are:
Gerald Dawe, editor, 'Earth Voices Whispering:' an anthology of Irish War Poetry 1914-1945. Belfast: Blackstaff, 2008
__________Points West: Poems 2003-2008. Oldcastle: Gallery Press, 2008.
_________ Catching the Light: Views and Interviews. Cliffs of Moher, Co. Clare: Salmon, 2008.
_________and Maria Johnston, editors., Stewart Parker's 'High Pop': The Irish Times Column 1970-1976. Belfast: Lagan Press, 2008.
Paul Delaney, editor, Colm Tóibin: A Collection of Critical Essays Dublin: Liffey Press, 2008.
Aileen Douglas, editor, Sarah Butler, Irish Tales. Dublin Four Courts Press, 2010. [with Ian Campbell Ross and Anne Markey]
Nicholas Grene, Yeats's Poetic Codes. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2008.
Crawford Gribben, Writing the Rapture: Prophecy Fiction in Evangelical America. New York. Oxford University Press, 2009.
________ and David George Mullan, editors, Literature and the Scottish Reformation. Farnham: Ashgate, 2009.
Heather Ingman, A History of the Irish Short Story. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
Edwina Keown and Carol Taaffe, eds, Irish Modernism: Origins, Contexts, Publics. Bern: Peter Lang, 2009.
Jarlath Killeen, Gothic Literature 1825-1914. Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 2009.
Deirdre Madden, Molly Fox's Birthday. London: Faber and Faber, 2008.
Anne Markey, editor, [Anon] Vertue Rewarded; or, The Irish Princess. Dublin: Four Courts Press, 2010. [with Ian Campbell Ross]
________ editor, Sarah Butler, Irish Tales. Dublin Four Courts Press, 2010. [with Ian Campbell Ross and Aileen Douglas].
________. editor, Patrick Pearse: Short Stories, trans. Joseph Campbell. Dublin, UCD Press, 2009.
McDonnell, Jenny, Katherine Mansfield and the Modern Marketplace: At the Mercy of the Public. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
Bernice M. Murphy, The Suburban Gothic in American Popular Culture. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
Eiléan Ní Chuilleanáin, , The Sun-fish, Oldcastle, Oldcastle: Gallery Press 2009 and Winston-Salem, NC: Wake Forest U.P., 2010.
_________Translation and Censorship, Dublin, Four Courts, 2009, [with Cormac Ó Cuilleanáin and David Parris]
__________Selected Poems. London: Faber and Faber and Oldcastle: Gallery Press, 2008.
Melanie Otto, The Creole Experiment: Utopian Space in Kamau Brathwaite's 'Video-Style' Works. Trenton, NJ: Africa World Press, 2009.
Eve Patten and Richard Pine, editors, Literatures of War. Cambridge: Cambridge Scholars Press, 2008.
Ian Campbell Ross, editor [Anon] Vertue Rewarded; or, The Irish Princess. Dublin: Four Courts Press, 2010. [with Anne Markey]
________editor, Sarah Butler, Irish Tales. Dublin Four Courts Press, 2010. [with Aileen Douglas and Anne Markey].
- ________editor, Laurence Sterne, The Life and Opinions of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.
The School is home to the online Irish Journal of Gothic and Horror Studies, edited by Bernice Murphy and Elizabeth McCarthy, which can be found here.
Members of the School variously edit, or serve on the editorial advisory boards of other journals, including Eighteenth-Century Ireland/Iris an dá chultúr, The Irish University Review, and Irish Journal of American Studies/IJAS Online.
School members have also contributed essays to many edited volumes in the past three years, as well as publishing articles in internationally recognized journals.
The National Collection of Children's Books (NCCB) was a two-year interdisciplinary and inter-institutional project - School of English (TCD) and Church of Ireland College of Education- funded by the Irish Research Council. NCCB is essentially an online platform, with a catalogue and database, that facilitates the exploration of over 250,000 children's books in over 90 languages from five libraries in Dublin. https://nccb.tcd.ie


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Wehner's specialty is M&A but he never had an accounting background (he has a #$%$ in Chemistry). He was only brought into Zynga in 2010 to help raise capital through the IPO, go on roadshows, promote the business, and now that is over, he is no longer needed. I am sure with him at FB, one of his targets will be Zynga. A bit of a conflict of interest though if he still owns shares of Zynga.
As far as Vranesh goes, he is at least a CPA and better equipped to handle the day-to-day role of a CFO, reporting, and deal with the auditors, post IPO.
I think their executive restructuring is now complete, with the exception of HR. HR of course is last. Let's see what happens in that area next.
i think CFO's role become less relevent post IPO . good for zynga, one less high cost executive = better eps .
overall the restructuring looks very focused and in line with there vision of # 1one mobile , social, mid core and real money gaming. In the first two category they are already # 1, mid core and real money they have a good chance by next year.
on FB buyout , i doubt it will ever happen , zynga is a founder lead company they never sell out .


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High-Dose B Vitamin Supplementation and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Paul S. Aisen, MD; Lon S. Schneider, MD, MS; Mary Sano, PhD; Ramon Diaz-Arrastia, MD, PhD; Christopher H. van Dyck, MD; Myron F. Weiner, MD; Teodoro Bottiglieri, PhD; Shelia Jin, MD, MPH; Karen T. Stokes, BA, BS; Ronald G. Thomas, PhD; Leon J. Thal, MD; for the Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study
Blood levels of homocysteine may be increased in Alzheimer disease (AD) and hyperhomocysteinemia may contribute to disease pathophysiology by vascular and direct neurotoxic mechanisms. Even in the absence of vitamin deficiency, homocysteine levels can be reduced by administration of high-dose supplements of folic acid and vitamins B6 and B12. Prior studies of B vitamins to reduce homocysteine in AD have not had sufficient size or duration to assess their effect on cognitive decline.
To determine the efficacy and safety of B vitamin supplementation in the treatment of AD.
Design, Setting, and Patients:
A multicenter, randomized, double-blind controlled clinical trial of high-dose folate, vitamin B6, and vitamin B12 supplementation in 409 (of 601 screened) individuals with mild to moderate AD (Mini-Mental State Examination scores between 14 and 26, inclusive) and normal folic acid, vitamin B12, and homocysteine levels. The study was conducted between February 20, 2003, and December 15, 2006, at clinical research sites of the Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study located throughout the United States.
Participants were randomly assigned to 2 groups of unequal size to increase enrollment (60% treated with high-dose supplements [5 mg/d of folate, 25 mg/d of vitamin B6, 1 mg/d of vitamin B12] and 40% treated with identical placebo); duration of treatment was 18 months.
Main Outcome Measure:
Change in the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-cog).
A total of 340 participants (202 in active treatment group and 138 in placebo group) completed the trial while taking study medication. Although the vitamin supplement regimen was effective in reducing homocysteine levels (mean [SD], −2.42 [3.35] in active treatment group vs −0.86 [2.59] in placebo group; P < .001), it had no beneficial effect on the primary cognitive measure, rate of change in ADAS-cog score during 18 months (0.372 points per month for placebo group vs 0.401 points per month for active treatment group, P = .52; 95% confidence interval of rate difference, −0.06 to 0.12; based on the intention-to-treat generalized estimating equations model), or on any secondary measures. A higher quantity of adverse events involving depression was observed in the group treated with vitamin supplements.
This regimen of high-dose B vitamin supplements does not slow cognitive decline in individuals with mild to moderate AD.
Trial Registration:
clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00056225
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Waldron College of Health and Human Services
- College of Business and Economics
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- Waldron College of Health and Human Services
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The mission of the Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders is to develop professionals who are ethical, knowledgeable, skillful and capable of working independently and in collaboration with clients, families and other professionals. The commitment of the department to this mission is reflected in the undergraduate liberal arts and sciences requirements; in the academic coursework in normal and abnormal development and behavior across the human life span; in coursework that engenders awareness of issues in culturally diverse populations; in human communication disorders, and in diagnostic and treatment methodologies; in clinical practicum requirements; and in coursework teaching research skills that support lifelong learning. Learn More about the Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders »
If you are heading to Philadelphia to attend ASHA this year, please make sure you stop by our table in the career section of the Exhibit Hall. Ms. Arndt, Dr. Davis, Dr. Flora, Dr. Millar and Dr. Park will be presenting and manning our table. We would love to see you! We will be recruiting faculty and potential graduate students, and we would really enjoy meeting up with alumni! Let us know now if you will be attending so we can be sure to meet.
On Oct. 24-25, 2016, the Radford University Department of Communication Sciences and Disorders (COSD) will be hosting a Site Visit team from the Council on Academic Accreditation (CAA) in Speech-Language Pathology to review our graduate program for reaccreditation. The Radford community is invited to a PUBLIC MEETING for the opportunity to address the Site Visit team. Click here for more details on the public meeting.
Radford COSD faculty and students host full RiteCare© summer schedule to enhance children's literacy and language skills »
To cap the 2016 RiteCare© Clinics' summer of helping children develop and enhance their communication and literacy skills, almost 150 children, family members, area Scottish Rite Freemasons and Radford student clinicians joined Provost Joseph Scartelli for a celebration.
Radford COSD faculty and students host full RiteCare© summer schedule to enhance children's literacy and language skills »
Beginning June 6, Radford's Department of Communications Sciences and Disorders (COSD) and the Scottish Rite Foundation will host four clinics in the Waldron Hall to help children develop and enhance their communication and literacy skills.
Joggin For Your Noggin' 5k on tap for March 19 »
On March 19, join brain injury survivors for a work out in the fresh air in support of Brain Injury Services of Southwest Virginia (BISSWVA).
Interdisciplinary Symposium builds teamwork across disciplines »
A single wounded warrior was the focus of almost 200 students and faculty during the Waldron College of Health and Human Services' Interprofessional Education and Practice Symposium held in Heth Hall on Nov. 6.
Waldron College names 2015-16 class of ambassadors »
Eleven students have been named ambassadors of the Waldron College of Health and Human Services (WCHHS) for 2015–16.
COSD class of 2015 posts perfect certification exam pass rate results »
The Spring 2015 graduates of the Radford University Communication Science and Disorders program have added additional luster to the department's reputation for excellence.


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From University of Toronto, the Clinical Epidemiology and Health Care Research Program, Sunnybrook and Women's College Health Sciences Centre, and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Acknowledgments: The authors thank Susan Campbell for data entry; Robert Tibshirani and Jerry Lawless for statistical insights; and Peter Austin, Ahmed Bayoumi, Chaim Bell, Victor Fuchs, David Juurlink, David Naylor, Miriam Shuchman, Leonard Syme, and John-Paul Szalai for commenting on drafts of this manuscript.
Grant Support: Dr. Redelmeier was supported by a career scientist award from the Ontario Ministry of Health, the de Souza Chair in Clinical Trauma Research of the University of Toronto, and the Canadian Institute for Health Research. Mr. Singh was supported by the Jane and Howard Jones Bursary at the University of Toronto.
Requests for Single Reprints: Donald A. Redelmeier, MD, Sunnybrook and Women's College Health Sciences Centre, Room G-151, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5, Canada; e-mail, email@example.com.
Current Author Addresses: Dr. Redelmeier: Sunnybrook and Women's College Health Sciences Centre, Room G-151, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5, Canada.
Mr. Singh: Sunnybrook and Women's College Health Sciences Centre, Room G-106, 2075 Bayview Avenue, Toronto, Ontario M4N 3M5, Canada.
Author Contributions: Conception and design: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Analysis and interpretation of the data: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Drafting of the article: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Final approval of the article: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Provision of study materials or patients: S.M. Singh.
Statistical expertise: D.A. Redelmeier.
Obtaining of funding: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Administrative, technical, or logistic support: D.A. Redelmeier.
Collection and assembly of data: D.A. Redelmeier, S.M. Singh.
Social status is a consistent, powerful, and widespread determinant of death rates. The association between high status and low mortality has appeared throughout the world, has persisted for more than a century, and extends to diverse illnesses (1–4). Uncovering the mechanisms by which external factors (such as income and level of education) influence biological processes (such as the endocrine and immune systems) represents a major challenge for health scientists and a core issue for public policy. Research is difficult because many determinants of social status are closely interrelated, such as education with income. Animal models are unrealistic, aside from some primate studies, and randomized trials are impractical, aside from a few lottery winners.
Movie stars are an interesting group for the study of social status and health outcomes. First, performers can earn an enormous income without a substantial amount of education. Second, celebrity publicity is often boosted by more sustained promotion than is the attention given to politicians, singers, athletes, and other luminaries. Third, the lifestyles of movie stars can be notorious for extremes of competition, leisure, and excess. Fourth, they are highly visible public figures whose birthdays and deaths are regularly reported. Finally, big breaks to stardom are often haphazard and heavily dependent on chance. Indeed, some pundits suggest that being nominated for an Academy Award is due to talent whereas winning one is due to luck.
We wondered whether the Academy Awards might shed light on how social status affects all-cause mortality. We chose this event because it generates substantial attention; for example, in 1996, almost as many Americans watched the Academy Awards as voted in the presidential election (5–6). Moreover, the event is televised to more than 100 countries and has an estimated viewing audience of more than 1 billion people, making its broadcast one of the most widely shared current human experiences. Our theory was that winners would gain an important increase in their status but no increase in their formal education. The primary hypothesis was that the survival of winners would differ from that of less recognized performers.
Membership in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences is limited by invitation from the Board of Governors to those with movie distinctions, currently totals about 6000 persons, and has 13 branches (for example, an actors' branch that includes about 1000 persons). The annual awards selection process is complex and is described in detail elsewhere (http://www.oscars.org). In brief, each December the Academy compiles a list of films that are eligible for an award; each cast member in these films is eligible to be nominated for an acting award. In January, the list is sent to all Academy members and those in the actors' branch are invited to nominate five individuals in each of four acting categories. In February, the nominations are tabulated, the top five nominations in each category are identified, and all Academy members vote for one person in each category. The Academy Award goes to the person with the most votes.
We identified every person nominated for an Academy Award for acting. To do so, we obtained a full listing of all actors and actresses, along with the film in which they performed, from the Academy. The selection interval spanned from the inception of the Academy Awards to the present (72 years). For each performer, we also identified another cast member who performed in the same film as the nominee, was the same sex, and was born in the same era. This ensured that both were alive, working, prevailing in casting calls, winning good movie roles, and eligible for a nomination. In cases where several matches were possible, we picked a same-sex cast member by formally checking dates and choosing the one whose birth date was closest to that of the nominated performer.
For clarity, we provide an arbitrary example of this matching process to illustrate the underlying method. Kate Winslet was nominated for the leading actress award in 1997 for her performance as the character Rose DeWitt Bukater in the movie Titanic. Five other women were cast members in that film, including Suzy Amis, who performed as the character Lizzy Calvert. Kate Winslet was born in 1975, and Suzy Amis was born in 1961; these two people had a 14-year difference in age. The other four women, Kathy Bates (born in 1948), Frances Fisher (born in 1952), Jenette Goldstein (born in 1960), and Gloria Stuart (born in 1910), all had an age difference greater than 14 years compared to Kate Winslet. Hence, Suzy Amis was selected as the match for Kate Winslet in this film.
We repeated this matching process for all years and all four categories. No performer was excluded from analysis, and no performer was dropped because of missing data. Matches were not possible in some cases; for example, in 1951, Katharine Hepburn was nominated in a movie in which no other woman appeared. Otherwise, the matching process was uncomplicated and complete. In the matching process, we did not attempt to balance ethnicity, past experience, or future accomplishment of the performers. As a consequence, the person who performed opposite the nominee could previously have achieved or subsequently achieve greater recognition. Such potential misclassification might cause analyses to underestimate the differences attributable to winning an Academy Award.
Many performers were eligible for inclusion on more than one occasion; for example, Katharine Hepburn won four Academy Awards during her career. We counted each person only once by categorizing performers according to their highest achievement. The three groups were termed "winners" (those who were nominated for and won at least one Academy Award), "nominees" (those who were nominated but never won an Academy Award), and "controls" (those who were never nominated and never won). For example, Jack Nicholson was classified as a winner because he had three wins, Richard Burton was a nominee because he was nominated seven times but never won, and Lorne Greene was a control because he was never nominated. Statistical tests based on counting performances rather than performers gave more extreme results and are not shown.
We collected data on each person's date of birth and death from the Internet through two databases: the All Movie Guide (http://www.allmovie.com) and the Internet Movie Database (http://www.imdb.com). Each source covers more than 100 000 movies, is updated continually, and undergoes extensive public scrutiny. Data were checked by consulting written publications, and conflicts were resolved by accepting information from printed sources over that found on the Internet (7–10). No birth dates were missing. Causes of death were sought by using the same methods and by inquiry to the National Film Information Service. In addition, we checked Internet sources that listed people who have sometimes been mistakenly rumored dead. People who were not reported dead were presumed to be alive.
Additional data were retrieved by using methods similar to those described above, with the following exceptions. Determination of whether the person was born in the United States and whether the person had changed his or her name from the given name was made by using the All Movie Guide. Missing data were assumed to indicate the United States as the country of origin and no change in name. Ethnicity was determined by searching Internet sources and by viewing selected films. Although performers try to avoid being typecast, we classified each performer's main film genre according to that listed first by the All Movie Guide. Similarly, although the ratings given in film reviews are debatable, the All Movie Guide five-star ratings were considered to indicate high quality.
Research on the natural history of any condition requires identifying people at an early and uniform point in their course. Unstable definitions of "time-zero" might otherwise lead to distorted prognoses, an error called lead-time bias(11–12). The baseline analysis in this study set time-zero as the performer's day of birth to conform to the accepted measure of longevity (13). Other analyses were conducted to test robustness. In the first of these, time-zero was set as the day on which each performer's first film was released. In the second, time-zero was set as the day of each performer's 65th birthday; therefore, all performers who died before 65 years of age were excluded. In the third analysis, time-zero was set as each performer's 50th birthday; all performers who died before 50 years of age were therefore excluded.
Survival analysis also requires avoiding artifacts related to survivor treatment-selection bias: That is, persons who are destined to live longer have more opportunity to gain special treatments, thereby potentially creating an illusory link between special treatments and longer survival (14–16). One way to mitigate this bias is to use time-dependent covariates in a proportional hazards model, although doing so can produce a different bias in the opposite direction (17–18). We analyzed survival both with and without a time-dependent step function for victory. In addition, we analyzed survival after adjusting for total films and total nominations in a person's career to see whether winning an Academy Award was distinct from other exposures that can accumulate over time.
We used three strategies to test whether the survival associated with winning an Academy Award might be due to hidden confounding. First, we conducted analyses both with and without adjustments for baseline characteristics, on the rationale that if partial control based on available factors yielded only a small difference in estimates, then perfect control based on ideal factors would be less likely to yield a large difference in estimates. Second, we repeated all analyses by comparing winners with nominees and tested whether the survival difference persisted, on the rationale that nominees were intermediate between winners and controls in talent or other unknown factors. Third, we examined dose–response gradients by assessing survival in performers with multiple wins.
The primary analysis compared mortality in Academy Award winners and controls. Survival was plotted by using the Kaplan–Meier method, life expectancy was estimated as the area under the curve, and comparisons were done by using the log-rank test. Regression analyses used the Cox proportional-hazards model to adjust for birth year, sex, ethnicity (white or nonwhite), birth country (United States or other), name change (yes or no), age at release of first film, and total films in career. Continuous covariates were coded as linear terms (models with quadratic and cubic terms yielded similar results and are not reported). The proportionality assumption was checked by inspection of log–log plots. Tests were done by using StatView software, version 5.0 (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary North Carolina), and SAS software, version 6.12 (SAS Institute, Inc.). All P values were two-tailed, and those less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Our data file is available on the Web site of the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (http://www.ices.on.ca).
The funding sources had no role in the design, conduct, or reporting of this study.
Overall, 1649 performers were nominated for an Academy Award or appeared opposite the nominated performer. The baseline characteristics of winners, nominees, and controls were similar (Table 1). In particular, the three groups did not differ greatly in birth year, sex, ethnicity, or country of birth, aside from a trend that nominees were born somewhat more recently than winners or controls. Fewer controls were listed as having a different name at birth, a finding perhaps related to lesser monitoring of this group. The median age at release of first film was 26 years, and almost all performers (98%) had started appearing in films by 49 years of age. The median age at first nomination was 35 years (identical for winners and nominees). Among winners, the median age at first award was 39 years, most (80%) had received an award by 49 years of age, and few (15%) had multiple wins.
Each performer's career was assessed as the interval from their first to their most recent film credit (through the year 2000). On average, winners were in more total films than were nominees (58.9 vs. 47.4; P < 0.001). In contrast, nominees and controls had a similar number of total films (47.4 vs. 45.5; P > 0.2). Analyses of only films rated four stars or more revealed a similar pattern. For each group, the average performer was in about 1.5 films per year during their career. The most common film genre in each group was "drama," and this was more frequent among winners than controls (82% vs. 72%; P = 0.003). Most winners and nominees received a first nomination within two decades of their first film (83% vs. 83%; P > 0.2). Among winners, information on level of education was available for 119 performers; half (61 of 119) had only a high school education (excluding honorary degrees).
A total of 772 performers had died by 28 March 2000 (median follow-up, 66 years from birth). A specific cause of death was listed for 556 performers and was not listed for 216 performers (Table 2). No major imbalances were seen among the three groups in identified causes of death. Ischemic heart disease was the most common cause of death and accounted for 23% of deaths overall (177 of 772 deaths). Injuries and poisoning occurred at all ages and accounted for 6% of the deaths overall (47 of 772 deaths). Of the 42 deaths from miscellaneous causes, 15 were due to postoperative complications and 8 were due to AIDS. Overall, almost all deaths (714 of 772) occurred after 50 years of age, and very few deaths (13 of 772) occurred within a decade of the performer's first film. Twenty performers were older than 90 years of age and were still alive at follow-up.
Survival was better among winners than among controls (Figure). The overall difference in life expectancy was 3.9 years (79.7 vs. 75.8 years; P = 0.003). The difference was similar for men and women (3.8 vs. 4.1 years; P > 0.2) but was greater for performers born in or after 1910 than for those born before or in 1909 (4.1 vs. 1.7 years; P = 0.015). The difference in life expectancy between winners and controls was 5.9 years (53.2 vs. 47.3 years; P < 0.001) in analyses based on survival after release of the first film, 2.5 years (83.0 vs. 80.5 years; P = 0.018) in analyses that excluded performers who died before 65 years of age, and 2.3 years (79.4 vs. 77.1 years; P = 0.028) in analyses that excluded performers who died before 50 years of age.
Analysis is based on log-rank test comparing 235 winners (99 deaths) with 887 controls (452 deaths). The total numbers of performers available for analysis were 1122 at 0 years, 1056 at 40 years, 762 at 60 years, and 240 at 80 years. = 0.003 for winners vs. controls.
The generally lower mortality hazard was equal to about a 28% relative reduction in death rates in winners (95% CI, 10% to 42%). Adjustment for birth year, sex, and ethnicity yielded similar results (Table 3). Accounting for birth country, name change, age at release of first film, and total films in career also made no large difference. Excluding performers who died before 50 years of age and those who won an award after 50 years of age yielded a relative reduction of 25% (CI, 2% to 42%), which decreased to 18% (CI, −7% to 37%) after adjustment for birth year, sex, and ethnicity. Analyses using time-dependent covariates, in which winners were counted as controls until the time of first victory, yielded a relative reduction of 20% (CI, 0% to 35%). Analyses excluding performers with multiple wins yielded a relative reduction of 25% (CI, 5% to 40%).
Additional analyses were done to evaluate the 762 performers who received at least one Academy Award nomination. Life expectancy was better for winners than for nominees (79.7 vs. 76.1 years; P = 0.013). This was equal to a 25% relative reduction in death rates (CI, 5% to 41%). Adjustment for demographic and professional factors yielded similar results, as did calculations based on time from first nomination rather than time from birth (relative reduction in death rate, 24% [CI, 3% to 40%]). Among winners and nominees, very few deaths occurred within a decade of their first nomination (4% vs. 5%; P > 0.2). Life expectancy was 2.7 years higher for performers with multiple wins than for those with single wins (82.0 vs. 79.3), but the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.093). The award category (leading vs. supporting role) made no significant difference in survival.
Performers with long careers sometimes received more nominations than did those with short careers. The overall association was about 0.02 nomination (CI, 0.016 to 0.024 nomination) per year of career. The winners accumulated a total of 639 nominations, of which 362 were defeats. The nominees accumulated a total of 717 nominations. We found no association between number of defeats and reduced death rates, either for winners (relative reduction in death rate, 5% [CI, −6% to 15%]) or nominees (relative reduction in death rate, 2% [CI, −14% to 16%]). Analyses of winners and nominees together showed that each win was associated with a 22% relative reduction in death rates (CI, 5% to 35%), whereas each nomination otherwise was not associated with a significant reduction in death rates (relative reduction in death rate, 3% [CI, −6% to 11%]).
Other factors were also linked to longevity. Women lived longer than men (77.9 vs. 75.4 years; P < 0.001). Performers born in more recent decades also had reduced death rates (relative reduction in death rate, 6% [CI, 2% to 10%]). No other baseline characteristic (Table 1) was significantly related to survival. Similarly, total films in career—an indirect measure of income—was unrelated to death rates among winners (relative reduction in death rate, 0.1% [CI, −0.3% to 0.6%]), nominees (relative reduction in death rate, 0.3% [CI, −0.1% to 0.6%]), and controls (relative reduction in death rate, 0.0% [CI, −0.2% to 0.2%]). Age at first award was related to longevity, in that later wins led to smaller gains; for example, life expectancy beyond 50 years of age was greater for those who won in their 30s compared with those in their 40s (32.7 vs. 26.6; P = 0.007).
We found that winning an Academy Award was associated with a large gain in life expectancy for actors and actresses. The apparent survival advantage amounted to about 4 extra years of life (CI, 1.6 to 6.2 years), could not be explained by simple birth demographics, and was evident even though victory predated death by about four decades. Survival among performers who were nominated but did not win was about the same as that among performers with no nominations. Survival among performers with many nominations was no better than among those with single nominations, unless more nominations generated more wins. Our observations were not easily attributed to occupation, income, talent, random chance, measurement error, or reverse causality. Instead, the results suggest that success confers a survival advantage.
Several explanations might account for the increased survival of Academy Award–winning actors and actresses. Movie stars are often subjected to a personal scrutiny that far exceeds their dramatic achievements. They often need to preserve their image by continually avoiding disgraceful behaviors and maintaining exemplary conduct. They may be surrounded by managers and others who are invested in the person's reputation and can enforce high standards of behavior. They have personal chefs, trainers, nannies, or other staff that make it easy to follow the ideals of lifestyle. Furthermore, a movie star may have more control, ability to avoid stress, self-efficacy, resources, admirers, motivation, and access to special privileges than others in society. The full mechanism of the apparent survival benefit among successful actors and actresses is not known. Untangling the explanations is further complicated because some stars also engage in superstitious and deleterious behaviors.
Causal inferences should take into account possible confounding. Factors might develop before, persist for decades after, and be unaltered by the other effects of winning. These as-yet unidentified factors contribute to both victory and longevity but not to nomination. Such factors are equally important in men and women, are more intense in recent eras, and are unrelated to total films in a career. They predict who will win an Academy Award, will not change with repeated nominations, and do not differ for those in supporting rather than leading roles. Ambition, resilience, time preference, social support, work stress, environmental pollutants, or childhood experience (all of which have been suggested to play a role in survival) do not easily satisfy these conditions, but such factors are not impossible. A factor that was present in 80% of winners and 20% of controls would explain our findings if it created a 6.5-year survival difference.
Our study had two main limitations. First, information on many personal details, such as level of education, is not available for all performers. More biographical work is needed, especially because such factors as smoking and alcohol intake account for only a modest proportion of the social inequities in population mortality (19). Biographical work needs to include more performers than just extraordinary ones, because omitting performers with three or four Academy Awards still showed a 27% difference in survival (CI, 10% to 42%). Second, for some people the sting of defeat is more intense than the joy of victory (20). However, this asymmetry is unlikely to be the only explanatory factor, given that the average lifespan of controls was still much higher than that of the general U.S. adult population during the interval (21). Indeed, the results are surprising because performers sometimes understate their age, which would cause our data to underestimate their survival.
Winning an Academy Award can increase a performer's stature and may add to their longevity. The absolute difference in life expectancy is about equal to the societal consequence of curing all cancers in all people for all time (22–23). Moreover, movie stars who have won multiple Academy Awards have a survival advantage of 6.0 years (CI, 0.7 to 11.3 years) over performers with multiple films but no victories. Formal education is not the only way to improve health, and strict poverty is not the only way to worsen health. The main implication is that higher status may be linked to lower mortality rates even at very impressive levels of achievement.
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To the Editor,
The large survival advantage "" almost 4 years -- for Academy Award""winning actors and actresses over their less successful peers [1] continues to receive attention. We write to point out that the statistical method used to derive the statistically significant survival difference gave the Oscar winners an unfair advantage, and to help readers recognize or avoid similar artifacts in other research reports.
The report was based on 235 Oscar winners; 527 other nominees who never won; and 887 "controls" who were never nominated, selected from performers of the same sex and approximately same age who played in the movies for which the nominees were nominated. In the primary analysis, survival was measured from birth, but other definitions of "time-zero" were also used. In all but one of the Kaplan-Meier, Log-Rank and Cox proportional hazards analyses reported, each performer was classified as a "winner" or "not a winner" One reported analysis employed "winner" as a time-dependent covariate, to reflect the fact that all started out as "non -winners", but that some changed status over time.
In the (more emphasized) authors' principal comparison, the Kaplan- Meier curves showed a 3.9 year advantage for the winners. The Cox model, with "winner" as a fixed-in-time covariate , yielded mortality rate reductions ranging from 28% (no adjustment) to 23% (adjustment for seven other covariates), all with 95% confidence limits above 0%. The one reported set of analyses that treated each performer's status (as winner or loser) as dynamic (time-dependent) yielded a reduction of 20%; the lower limit of the CI was 0%, i.e., the reduction was "just significant" at the conventional P=0.05 level. The abstract and the Figure focused on the 3.9 years and the 28% reduction in death rates, which were obtained without adjustment, and without taking into account that a performer's status changed with time.
The analyses that classified those who ultimately won as "winners from the outset" gave them an inbuilt survival advantage, by crediting the years prior to winning towards survival subsequent to winning an Oscar. These "˜immortal' years [2,3] were in fact a requirement for membership in the winners' group: winners had to survive long enough to win (more than 79 years in the two most extreme cases: see Figure). Conversely, actors who did not win had no minimum survival requirement, and some died even before some winners had won, i.e., before some "longevity contests" could begin. For example, 145 "non-winners" had already died by age 65, before 15 of the winners had even won; these unfair pairings (e.g., Burton vs. Burns) were implicitly included in the overall longevity contest between the two groups, and contributed to the apparent survival advantage of the winners, even if winning brought no survival benefit.
To estimate the longevity benefits of winning an Oscar, the comparison should begin at the time that each actor first won, and the "˜remaining-longevity' contest should only include those alive at the same age as the winner was when the winner won. A winner may legitimately be included in comparisons (risksets) prior to winning, but as a "non- winner".
An analysis where the status of a performer who ultimately won is treated as a winner throughout, even in the risksets prior to winning, produces "˜immortal time' bias. As the figure illustrates, a longevity that is measured from a time-zero that precedes the performer's Oscar win (e.g., an individualized one such as the day each performer's first film was released, or a common one such as each performer's 0th or 50th birthday, as in [1]) will necessarily contain some immortal time; there is no such immortality guarantee for those who do not win. Similarly, the matching process, involving a performer "who played opposite" a nominee, ensured that a "control" was alive when a person who ultimately won was nominated, but not necessarily at the time that winner won (the comparison of the 235 nominees who won vs. the 527 other nominees did not involve a matching process).
The authors did report one analysis where each performer's status was updated in each risk set. Annals plans to publish Our methods are described more fully in a technical appendix and our results are presented in a table that will be published by Annals. All of our analyses treat each performer's status as dynamic.
In our re-analyses, which take the immortal time, as well as the covariates sex and year of birth, into account, the point estimate of the actuarial advantage is approximately 1 year, and not statistically significantly different from 0 (the 95% CI is compatible with 0). The estimated percentage mortality reduction is also correspondingly smaller.
We also directly estimated the magnitude of the "immortal time" bias. In the winners vs. nominated comparison, we estimated that not accounting for "˜immortal time' produced an artifactual longevity advantage of 0.8 years (mortality rate ratio 0.94). In the winners vs. controls, not accounting for the immortal time "" now more substantial -- between the year of a winning actor's first film and the year (s)he first won produced an artificial longevity advantage of 1.7 years and a mortality rate ratio of 0.87. In 1843, William Farr (4) described the statistical artifact created by classifying persons by their status at the end of follow-up, and analyzing them as if they had been in these categories from the outset. He used as examples the greater longevity of persons who reached higher ranks within their professions (bishops vs. curates; judges vs. barristers; generals vs. lieutenants). Despite textbook warnings (2,5,6), analyses that overlook this subtle bias are still common today.
In some longevity comparisons, e.g., (1,7,8), the consequences of an incorrect conclusion are minor. In the evaluation of the time-extension benefits of therapy (3,9,10), the consequences are more serious. How therefore to detect potential immortal time bias? We suggest that when reports compare two "groups", such as winners vs. nominees, one should carefully examine when and how persons entered a "group". Did being in (or moving to) a group have a time-related requirement? Was the classification based on the status at time-zero, or later? If later, was this accounted for? Is the term "status", which implies it could change, more appropriate than the term "group", where, as in a clinical trial, membership is fixed from the outset? Is it sufficient to classify the person just once, or do we need to re-classify the person-moments (the person at different times)? Showing the timelines may help. And, of course, readers and commentators should be doubly cautious whenever they encounter statistics that seem too extreme to be true.
1. Redelmeier DA, Singh SM. Survival in Academy Award-winning actors and actresses. Ann Intern Med. 2001 May 15;134(10):955-62.
2. Walker AM. Observation and Inference: An Introduction to the Methods of Epidemiology. Chestnut Hill, MA : Epidemiology Resources Inc., 1991. pp 59-60, and p161.
3. Suissa S. Effectiveness of inhaled corticosteroids in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: immortal time bias in observational studies. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2003 Jul 1;168(1):49-53. Epub 2003 Mar 27.
4. Farr W. Vital statistics : a memorial volume of selections from the reports and writings of William Farr / with an introduction by Mervyn Susser and Abraham Adelstein. Metuchen, N.J. : Scarecrow Press, 1975.
5. Colton, T. Statistics in Medicine. Little, Brown and Co., Boston, 1974.
6. Hill A.B. A short textbook of medical statistics. London: Hodder & Stoughton, 1977, p278.
7. Rothman KJ. Longevity of jazz musicians: flawed analysis. Am J Public Health. 1992 May;82(5):761.
8. Hanley JA, Carrieri MP, Serraino D. Statistical fallibility and the longevity of popes: William Farr meets Wilhelm Lexis. Int J Epidemiol. 2006 Mar 16; [Epub ahead of print]
9. Gail MH. Does cardiac transplantation prolong life? A reassessment. Ann Intern Med. 1972 May; 76(5):815-7.
10. Glesby MJ, Hoover DR. Survivor treatment selection bias in observational studies: examples from the AIDS literature. Ann Intern Med. 1996;124:999-1005.
None declared
To the editor,
Sylvestre et al. correctly comment that survival statistics are fallible. Our primary analysis was based on the Kaplan-Meier method because life expectancy is the preferred metric in medical decision analysis [1]. Our article also provided 40 other secondary analyses to explore different models since no one statistic is ideal. Sylvestre et al. argue that the multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model with a time-varying step function is preferred over our primary analysis approach, do not discuss the limitations of such models, and intimate that other models give an unfair advantage. This position disagrees with us and with other reviews involving our work [2, 3].
We agree that time-varying functions are valuable for addressing a change in status from winning. One drawback with such models can be in assuming the same hazard for all winners following first win; for example, Jodi Foster (first win age 25) and Judi Dench (first win age 62) are assigned identical hazards from age 63 until death. However, we found earlier wins were associated with greater advantages, contrary to this assumption. Adding fixed covariates that additionally model age (linear or quadratic) is no simple solution because the likelihood of winning is no simple function of age. The models also have limited power on small datasets, assume no unmeasured heterogeneity, and rarely capture complex trajectories (eg, multiple films, nominations, and wins) [4, 5, 6, 7].
We thank many scientists for analyses of our database. We have also done an update to March 29, 2006 and observed 122 more individuals and 144 more deaths since first publication. Our primary unadjusted analysis shows a smaller survival advantage of 3.6 years (79.7 vs 76.1, p = 0.005). Applying Model 1 of the Sylvestre technical appendix so that winners are treated in a time-varying manner yielded a 8% mortality reduction (95% confidence interval: -14 to +26, p = 0.455). Modifying Model 1 so that both winners and non-winners are treated in a time-varying manner yielded a 15% mortality reduction (95% confidence interval: -6 to +31, p = 0.140). These estimates overlap earlier results. Apparently, the survival advantage depends on the analytic method chosen.
The statistical debate concerns inbuilt survival advantages that yield an immortality bias. We provided methods for addressing this bias, observed multiple findings suggesting this bias was not large in our cohort, and estimated the hidden confounding that would need to be postulated. We found no survival advantage comparing individuals with many nominations to individuals with no nominations, for example, contrary to estimates of a large immortality bias. Moreover, we presumed individuals not reported dead were alive, which is a different type of immortality bias that causes almost all of our analyses and Sylvestre et al.'s analyses to underestimate survival differences.
Donald A. Redelmeier Sheldon M. Singh firstname.lastname@example.com
1. Sox HC, Blatt MA, Higins MC, Marton KI. Medical decision making. Toronto: Butterworths 1988, p 182-4.
2.Redelmeier DA, Singh SM. Longevity of screenwriters who win an academy award: longitudinal study. BMJ. 2001;323:1491-6.
3. Redelmeier DA, Singh SM. Association between mortality and occupation among movie directors and actors. Am J Med. 2003;115:400-3.
4. Fisher LD, Lin DY. Time-dependent covariates in the Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Annu Rev Public Health. 1999;20:145 -57.
5. Therneau TM, Grambsch PM. Modeling survival data: extending the Cox model. New York: Springer, 2000, p 231-2.
6. Kalbfleisch JD, Prentice RL. The statistical analysis of failure time data. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2nd Edition 2002, p 196-208.
7. Allison PD, Survival analysis using SAS: A practical guide. Cary NC: The SAS Institute Inc, 2004, p 111-84.
Social Status and Life Expectancy in an Advantaged Population: A Study of Academy Award–Winning Actors
The summary below is from the full report titled "Survival in Academy Award–Winning Actors and Actresses." It is in the 15 May 2001 issue of Annals of Internal Medicine (volume 134, pages 955-962). The authors are DA Redelmeier and SM Singh.
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Thanks to those who called as part of ICUC and PICO CA to pass AB 953! This will help address racial profiling and end biased policing and ensure that all Californians are treated with dignity and respect.
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Go here for resources on Community Organizing.
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...Mind you, Chris Matthews thinks that he's complimenting the President by comparing him to William Shakespeare's Henry V. The context is the President's not-a-naked-campaign-ploy-at-all visit and speech in Afghanistan yesterday, and it predictably caused Chris Matthews to start up with the sycophancy. Precise quote? "It was right out of Henry V actually, a touch of Barry, in this case, in the night for those soldiers risking their lives over there" (H/T: Hot Air Headlines).
Henry V.
Oh, dear. See, this is why literary references should be reserved to the professionals. 'Professionals' being defined as 'people are who not Chris Matthews,' of course.
It is a pity that I interviewed Jonah Goldberg about The Tyranny of Cliches before this story came out; uninformed references to the St. Crispin's Day Speech collectively make up a cliche all of their own. But that's not actually germane to the conversation at hand. What is germane is 'the touch of Barry in the night,' which is clearly a reference to Act IV, Scene I of Henry V. Since Matthews apparently has never seen the play, let me correct the man's literary ignorance and reproduce the relevant section:
John Bates, "a soldier"
He hath not told his thought to the king?
King Henry V
No, nor it is not meet he should. For though I speak it to you, I think the king is but a man, as I am. The violet smells to him as it doth to me; the element shows to him as it doth to me; all his senses have but human conditions. His ceremonies laid by, in his nakedness he appears but a man, and though his affections are higher mounted than ours, yet when they stoop, they stoop with the like wing. Therefore when he sees reason of fears, as we do, his fears out of doubt be of the same relish as ours are. Yet in reason, no man should possess him with any appearance of fear, lest he by showing it should dishearten his army.
He may show what outward courage he will, but I believe, as cold a night as 'tis, he could wish himself in Thames up to the neck. And so I would he were, and I by him, at all adventures, so we were quit here.
King Henry
By my troth, I will speak my conscience of the king: I think he would not wish himself anywhere but where he is.
Then I would he were here alone. So should he be sure to be ransomed, and a many poor men's lives saved.
King Henry
I dare say you love him not so ill to wish him here alone, howsoever you speak this to feel other men's minds. Methinks I could not die anywhere so contented as in the king's company, his cause being just and his quarrel honorable.
Michael Williams, "a soldier"
That's more than we know.
Ay, or more than we should seek after. For we know enough if we know we are the king's subjects. If his cause be wrong, our obedience to the king wipes the crime of it out of us.
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads chopped off in a battle shall join together at the latter day, and cry all, "We died at such a place," some swearing, some crying for a surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left. I am afeared there are few die well that die in a battle, for how can they charitably dispose of anything when blood is their argument? Now if these men do not die well, it will be a black matter for the king that led them to it, who to disobey were against all proportion of subjection.
King Henry
So if a son that is by his father sent about merchandise do sinfully miscarry upon the sea, the imputation of his wickedness, by your rule, should be imposed upon his father that sent him. Or if a servant, under his master's command transporting a sum of money, be assailed by robbers and die in many irreconciled iniquities, you may call the business of the master the author of the servant's damnation. But this is not so. The king is not bound to answer the particular endings of his soldiers, the father of his son, nor the master of his servant, for they purpose not their death when they purpose their services. Besides, there is no king, be his cause never so spotless, if it come to the arbitrament of swords, can try it out with all unspotted soldiers. Some, peradventure, have on them the guilt of premeditated and contrived murder; some of beguiling virgins with the broken seals of perjury; some, making the wars their bulwark, that have before gored the gentle bosom of peace with pillage and robbery. Now if these men have defeated the law and outrun native punishment, though they can outstrip men, they have no wings to fly from God. War is his beadle; war is his vengeance. So that here men are punished for before-breach of the king's laws in now the king's quarrel. Where they feared the death, they have borne life away; and where they would be safe, they perish. Then if they die unprovided, no more is the king guilty of their damnation than he was before guilty of those impieties for the which they are now visited. Every subject's duty is the king's, but every subject's soul is his own. Therefore should every soldier in the wars do as every sick man in his bed, wash every mote out of his conscience. And dying so, death is to him advantage, or not dying, the time was blessedly lost wherein such preparation was gained. And in him that escapes, it were not sin to think that, making God so free an offer, he let him outlive that day to see his greatness and to teach others how they should prepare.
'Tis certain, every man that dies ill, the ill upon his own head; the king is not to answer it.
I do not desire he should answer for me, and yet I determine to fight lustily for him.
King Henry
I myself heard the king say he would not be ransomed.
Ay, he said so to make us fight cheerfully, but when our throats are cut he may be ransomed and we ne'er the wiser.
Actually, let me translate all of that out of English and into "something that Chris Matthews can understand*."
Soldier Dude
Hey, did your commanding officer tell the king that he thinks that we're all walking dead men, mysterious stranger?
King dressed up as mysterious stranger
NO. That's because he's a smart guy who knows that the king's on the ragged edge of hysteria as it is, what with this entire 'unilateral war of foreign conquest' thing and 'we're hideously outnumbered' thing and 'the king was until quite recently off in his own private Idaho drinking and whoring' thing. Don't push the king, man: he's got enough to worry and be brave about.
Soldier Dude
Brave? HA! He secretly wants to be home, and so do I. F*ck France.
HEY! The king wants to be here.
Soldier Dude
Fine: he can stay here by himself. The frogs will snap him up: sell him back to us; and then the war's over and nobody dies. I like this plan. This plan speaks to me.
That's really cold, man. Me, I'm ready to die for this good cause of His Majesty's.
Other Soldier Dude
'Good cause?' Above my pay grade, mysterious stranger.
Solder Dude
F*cking-A. Me, I subscribe to the "Orders are Orders" philosophy, because I have no idea what "National Socialism" even means.
Other Soldier Dude
Yup. It's the king who has the problem there. If it turns out that, say, invading France just to have another nifty title on formal occasions is actually not the spotlessly moral crusade that various propagandists keep telling us, then the king is going to be put through the wringer on Judgement Day. Particularly since he's going to get stuck with the moral bill for all the soldiers who ended up going to Hell because they didn't repent in time...
Now HOLD ON RIGHT THERE. I'm going to ignore the bits about whether this war is just or not - largely because, yeah, the king is trying to resolve his daddy issues, pick up a bunch of property that wasn't actually his in any meaningful sense of the term, and generally act like every other schmuck out there who thought that 'getting religion' equals 'license to get all self-righteous" - but the fact that... we're... all a bunch of unwashed depraved sinners isn't his fault. Probably he wouldn't have brought us along if we were singing hymns all day, but the king isn't a sin-eater. If your soul's cruddy, that's all you. You're still here to do what the king tells you to do; and if you survive it, good on you.
Other Soldier Dude.
Point taken.
Soldier Dude.
Yeah. Look, just because I despise the REMF, that doesn't mean I'm not going to shut up and soldier.
The king says that he's in this as much as you are.
Other Soldier Dude.
Ha. I'll believe it when I see it. No, wait, I won't, because I'll be dead.
So, let's recap: Chris Matthews equated Obama's speech and presence in Afghanistan to those of Henry V's. Which is to say, Chris Matthews told the world that Barack Obama is an untested, insecure, and untrained monarch who has initiated an imperial war of expansion in order to hide from his own sense of inadequacy when faced by the specters of his predecessors; and when his own troops point out that they're the ones that are going to end up doing the dying Obama essentially tries to whine and insult them into agreeing that he was right all along about this. Tries and fails, by the way: the troops ain't buying it, but they're professionals who will fight for the cause anyway. See what I meant by 'viciously attacks,' there? If you accept the basic argument by Matthews, he's pretty much trying to administer a poison pill to the entire Afghanistan situation whose rigor would satisfy even the most rigorous antiwar progressive. That he's incompetent at such administration is merely a minor detail; the important point is that it was tried.
Alternatively, Chris Matthews is simply an illiterate buffoon.
Moe Lane (crosspost)
PS: For the record: I reject the antiwar movement's decade-old arguments against the liberation of Afghanistan.
*I am fully aware, by the way, that I am not as good a playwright as William Shakespeare. No need to point that out. Really.


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Contextualizing CRM
Keeping up with the constant change in consumer behavior and spending habits requires that companies constantly evaluate and evolve their marketing efforts. Many brands have already shifted marketing strategies from product-centric to experiential. This contextual approach has allowed companies like Uber and Lyft to create innovative experiences out …


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Eugenie Bouchard has no wish to make friends on the tennis circuit. She thinks there's simply no point.
The 20-year-old Canadian was asked after reaching the French Open quarterfinals Sunday who her best friend on the WTA tour is — someone she could hang around with to do some sightseeing in Paris.
"Best friend on tour? I don't have one," Bouchard said. "I don't think the tennis tour is the place to have friends. For me it's all competition."
To the 18th-seeded Bouchard, palling around simply gets in the way of doing the job properly.
"I think it's important to just remember that we're going to play against each other in matches," she said. "It's not like we're teammates."
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text: People fear change. Fear changes people. (audiorapture) wrote in the_dawning, 2008-12-11 08:40:00 People fear change. Fear changes people. audiorapture the_dawning 2008-12-11 08:40:00 Previous Share Next SATURDAY: BELLA MORTE with Silent Muse + 80s Night Local goth heroes BELLA MORTE will bring the rock to the Outback Lodge. Opening for them will be the radio personality band Silent Muse.And the extra special bonus sauce: 80s Night downstairs!Repeating for extra impact:Saturday, December 13The Dawning Presents:Upstairs -BELLA MORTESilent MuseDownstairs -80s Night Post a new comment Error We will log you in after post We will log you in after post We will log you in after post We will log you in after post We will log you in after post Anonymously switch LiveJournal Facebook Twitter OpenId Google MailRu VKontakte Anonymously default userpic Insert Bold Insert Italic Insert Underline Insert Strikethrough Insert Link Insert LJ User Insert Photo Insert Media Your IP address will be recorded Post a new comment Preview comment Help 2 comments Post a new comment 2 comments audiorapture wrote in the_dawning: ←TONIGHT: The Dawning Presents audiorapture wrote in the_dawning: →The Dawning Presents: Umlaut Charity Event for Child's Play


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There was a lot to take away from USC's 31-17 victory against Notre Dame on Saturday. Lane Kiffin and the Trojans went into South Bend, Ind. and executed their game plan to perfection.
With many great performances, it is tough to identify the key players that made the Trojans' victory possible.
The following is a list of winners and losers from the Trojans' victory on Saturday.


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