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Posts tagged 'Peter Lynch'
Growth Stocks – Cheaper by the Day
Are you a value investor? If you said "yes," how would you feel about buying an $18 stock with a P/E (Price/Earnings) ratio of greater than 100x and a Price/Sales ratio of 14x for a company that three years earlier was started in a garage? This may not sound like a value stock, but had you bought this stock at the initial public offering (IPO), it would have been a screaming bargain – priced at less than 1x P/E ratio, based on this year's earnings estimates.
You may be surprised to know, this company with a meager $18 IPO share price is now worth $9,192 per share today (if you adjust for three stock splits)! Yes, that's correct, a +50,900% return. If you are wondering to which stock I'm referring, I am talking about Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). Incredibly, ever since Amazon went public in 1997, the CEO Jeff Bezos has managed to command the start-up e-commerce company from $31 million in revenues to $121 billion (with a "b") on an annual basis in 2016 (a +389,000% increase).
Discovering the next IPO that turns into a $363 billion behemoth is easier said than done, and unfortunately these types of companies are a rare breed. Even if you are lucky enough to identify these diamonds-in-the-rough, early in their growth cycle, very few investors have the fortitude and discipline to continually own the stocks through the perpetual volatility (i.e., peaks and valleys).
The good news is, although you may be unable to find every unicorn out there, you can still apply the same principles and characteristics to any growth stock you invest in. In order to prudently achieve outsized returns, one must identify innovative market leaders that have gained some type of sustainable competitive advantage, which will serve as the profit and cash flow growth engine for the stock over the long-term.
If a company does not have a unique advantage over industry competitors, they will likely be unable to compound earnings growth – the key to becoming a big winner. Albert Einstein, Nobel Prize winner is credited with identifying compounding as the "eighth wonder of the world," and without compounding there will be no gigantic results.
Amazon may be a rare breed, but there are plenty of other examples of so-called "expensive" stocks that get dismissed or fall through the cracks as they explode in value to the stratosphere. Consider Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), which at the time of its IPO in 1992 was priced at a very rich P/E of 52x. Sound expensive? Actually, this was a greatest offer in a generation. Adjusted for stock splits, the IPO shares were valued at $0.27 – in the most recent trading session Starbucks shares closed at $55.90, a +20,600% increase. Similar to Amazon, had you purchased Starbucks shares at the IPO price, you would have been paying less than a measly, eye-popping 1x P/E ratio based on 2016 earnings.
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), formerly Google Inc., is another case of growth stock appearing pricey on the outside, but really a value of a lifetime on the inside. The hype surrounding the Google IPO was so palpable in 2004, the stock priced at a relatively nose-bleed level of 60x P/E level, approximately. The unconventional auction bidding method to buy the initial shares made investors even more skeptical. Suffice it to say, the greater than +1,600% gain has once again shown that investors can reap handsome rewards, if they do thorough enough due diligence and ignore the illusory big ticket IPO prices.
What most investors fail to realize is that P/E ratios are temporary. By purchasing a growth stock, the numerator of the P/E ratio (price) becomes static or fixed. As earnings of a growth company expand, the stock becomes cheaper by the day. More specifically, the numerator of the P/E (price) is flat, while the denominator (earnings) grows, thereby making the P/E ratio smaller (cheaper). And as you can see from the few previous examples I have provided, if you are able to identify winners, and hold them long enough, you will eventually realize the initial hefty price tag at purchase will be considered almost free after all the earnings compounding.
Legendary growth investor Peter Lynch summed it up concisely when he noted, "People concentrate too much on the P, but the E really makes the difference." Lynch goes on to highlight the importance of patience in growth investing because stocks often go down or move sideways for long periods of time before dramatic increases occur:
"My best stocks performed in the 3rd year, 4th year, 5th year, not in the 3rd week or 4th week."
I've illustrated a few successful examples of meteoric growth stocks, but more importantly the misconception many investors place on the current P/E ratio. There still is no substitute for hard-nosed, detailed fundamental research for finding big growth winners, because true growth stocks bought and held for a long enough period, will become cheaper by the day. If you don't have the time, discipline, or patience to execute this winning strategy, find and hire an experienced investment manager who understands these concepts.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), AMZN, and GOOGL, but at the time of publishing had no direct position in SBUX, or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Do you remember the panic-inducing headlines related to PIIGS, Crimea, Ebola, Cyprus, and the Flash Crash? Probably not. But if you do remember, these false alarms have likely been relegated to the financial memory graveyard, along with the many other sensationalist news events that have been killed off in the post-financial crisis era. Time will tell whether Brexit dies off or becomes a resurrected concern, like the repeating fears of a China slowdown or Greek collapse. Regardless, as the S&P 500 stock index reaches new all-time record highs, investors are currently shrug off the noise while muttering, "Brexit-Schmexit."
Individuals have tried to use scary headlines as a timing tool to consistently time market corrections for all of recorded history. Unfortunately, emotional, knee-jerk reactions to alarming news stories rarely is the best strategy. Famed fund manager Peter Lynch said it best when he noted,
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
Having invested for some 25 years, experience has taught me not only is conventional wisdom often wrong, but it also is frequently an accurate contrarian indicator. In other words, frightening news often should be an indicator to buy…not sell. Case in point is the U.K. European Union referendum. The Brexit referendum "Leave" vote caught virtually everyone by surprise, but the rebound in stock prices to new record highs may be even more surprising to most observers. However, for investors following the key factors of interest rates, profits, valuation, and sentiment (see also Don't Be a Fool, Follow the Stool), may not be shocked by the positive price action.
- Interest Rates: For starters, you don't have to be a genius to realize that stocks become more attractive when there is a scarcity of investment alternatives. When there are an estimated $13 trillion of negative interest rate bonds, a layman can quickly understand a 2%, 3%, or 4% dividend yield offered on certain stocks (and funds) can represent a much more attractive opportunity. With interest rates at record lows (see chart below), the overall dividend yield of stocks has provided a floor for stock prices and has limited the depth and duration of sell-offs and corrections.
- Profits: Corporate profits are near record highs but have been sluggish due to several factors, including the negative impact of the strong dollar on multinational exports; the depressing effect of declining interest rates on the banking sector's net interest profit margins; the general decline in oil and commodity prices; and general lethargic economic growth overall in international markets (emerging and developed economies). Encouragingly, a stabilization in the value of the U.S. dollar, along with a rebound in energy prices augurs well for a potential shift back to earnings growth in the coming quarters.
- Valuation: On a valuation basis, the Price/Earnings ratio of the stock market is about 10-15% above historical averages (see chart below). The average S&P 500 stock price trades around 19x's the value of trailing twelve-month earnings. However, in the context of all-time record low-interest rates, a premium valuation is well deserved, especially for those companies paying a dividend and growing their bottom line.
- Sentiment: Since the Great Financial Crisis / Recession, there has been about $1.5 trillion in equity investments that have been pulled out of U.S. equity mutual funds. This statistic is a clear sign of the extreme risk aversion and pervasive pessimism. Despite money flowing out of equity funds, corporations have bolstered the upward trajectory in stock prices with hundreds of billions in corporate stock buybacks and trillions in mergers & acquisition transactions. With all the universal jitteriness, I like to remind investors of Warren Buffett's credo, "Buy fear, and sell greed."
Brexit-Schmexit NOT Brexit-Panic
Despite the risk aversion in the marketplace, stock prices in the U.S. continue to grind higher to record levels. The stock market is currently communicating interest rates, profits, valuation, and sentiment are more important factors to price direction than are Brexit and other geopolitical concerns.
The silver lining behind severe investor skepticism is the creation of additional investment opportunities. As famous investor Sir John Templeton stated regarding stock market cycles, "Bull markets are born on pessimism and they grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria." Even the most objective observers have difficulty pointing to a broad set of indicators signaling euphoria, and the recent Turkish military coup attempt and domestic gun violence incidents will not squash out the negativity. Until optimism and elation rule the day, there's no need to worry-schworry.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds , but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Avoiding Cigarette Butts
Too many investors hang their hat on investments that seem "cheap". Unfortunately, too often something that looks like a bargain turns out to be a cigarette butt from which investors are hoping to take a last puff. As the old adage states, "you get what you pay for," and that certainly applies to the world of investments. There are endless examples of cheap stocks getting cheaper, or in other words, stocks with low price/earnings ratios going lower. Stocks that appear cheap today, in many cases turn out to be expensive tomorrow because of deteriorating or collapsing profitability.
For instance, take Haliburton Company (HAL), an energy services company. Wall Street analysts are forecasting the Houston, Texas based oil services company to achieve 2016 EPS (earnings per share) of $0.32, down -79%. The share price currently stands at $37, so this translates into an eye-popping valuation of 128x P/E ratio, based on 2016 earnings estimates. What has effectively occurred in the HAL example is earnings have declined faster than the share price, which has caused the P/E to go higher. If you were to look at the energy sector overall, the same phenomenon is occurring with the P/E ratio standing at a whopping 97x (at the end of Q1).
These inflated P/E ratios are obviously not sustainable, so two scenarios are likely to occur:
- The price of the P/E (numerator) will decline faster than earnings (denominator)
- The earnings of the P/E (denominator) will rise faster than the price (numerator)
Under either scenario, the current nose-bleed P/E ratio should moderate. Energy companies are doing their best to preserve profitability by cutting expenses as fast as possible, but when the product you are selling plummets about -70% in 18 months (from $100 per barrel to $30), producing profits can be challenging.
The Importance of Price (or Lack Thereof)
Similarly to the variables an investor would consider in purchasing an apartment building, "price" is supreme. With that said, "price" is not the only important variable. As famed investor Warren Buffett shrewdly notes, the quality of a company can be even more important than the price paid, especially if you are a long-term investor.
"It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price."
The advantage of identifying and owning a "wonderful company" is the long-term stream of growing earnings. The trajectory of future earnings growth, more than current price, is the key driver of long-term stock performance.
Growth investor extraordinaire Peter Lynch summed it up well when he stated,
"People Concentrate too much on the P, but the E really makes the difference."
Albert Einstein identified the power of "compounding" as the 8th Wonder of the World, which when applied to earnings growth of a stock can create phenomenal outperformance – if held long enough. Warren Buffett emphasized the point here:
"If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
Throw Away Cigarette Butts
I have acknowledged the importance of aforementioned price, but your investment portfolio will perform much better, if you throw away the cigarette butts and focus on identifying market leading franchise that can sustain earnings growth. The lower the growth potential, the more important price becomes in the investment question. (see also Magic Quadrant)
Here are the key factors in identifying wining stocks:
- Market Share Leaders: If you pay peanuts, you usually get monkeys. Paying a premium for the #1 or #2 player in an industry is usually the way to go. Certainly, there is plenty of money to be made by smaller innovative companies that disrupt an industry, so for these exceptions, focus should be placed on share gains – not absolute market share numbers.
- Proven Management Team: It's nice to own a great horse (i.e., company), but you need a good jockey as well. There have been plenty of great companies that have been run into the ground by inept managers. Evaluating management's financial track record along with a history of their strategic decisions will give you an idea what you're working with. Performance doesn't happen in a vacuum, so results should be judged relative to the industry and their competitors. There are plenty of incredible managers in the energy sector, even if the falling tide is sinking all ships.
- Large and/or Growing Markets: Spotting great companies in niche markets may be a fun hobby, but with limited potential for growth, playing in small market sandboxes can be hazardous for your investment health. On the other hand, priority #1, #2, and #3 should be finding market leaders in growth markets or locating disruptive share gainers in large markets. Finding fertile ground on long runways of growth is how investors benefit from the power of compound earnings.
- Capital Allocation Prowess: Learning the capital allocation skillset can be demanding for executives who climb the corporate ladder from areas like marketing, operations, or engineering. Regrettably, these experiences don't prepare them for the ultimate responsibility of distributing millions/billions of dollars. In the current low/negative interest rate environment, allocating capital to the highest return areas is more imperative than ever. Cash sitting on the balance sheet earning 0% and losing value to inflation is pure financial destruction. Conservatism is prudent, however, excessive piles of cash and overpaying for acquisitions are big red flags. Managers with a track record of organically investing in their businesses by creating moats for long-term competitive advantage are the leaders we invest in.
Many so-called "value" investors solely use price as a crutch. Anyone can print out a list of cheap stocks based on Price-to-Earnings, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, or Price/Cash Flow, but much of the heavy lifting occurs in determining the future trajectory of earnings and cash flows. Taking that last puff from that cheap, value stock cigarette butt may seem temporarily satisfying, but investing into too many value traps may lead you gasping for air and force you to change your stock analysis habits.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in HAL or any security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Chasing Headlines
It's been an amazing start to the year. First the market cratered on slowing China economic concerns, domestic recessionary fears, deteriorating oil prices, and negative interest rates abroad. In response to all these worries (and others), stocks dove more than -11% (S&P 500 Index) in January, before settling down. Subsequently, the market has made a screaming recovery, in part due to dovish monetary policy comments (i.e., reduction in forecasted interest rate hikes) and diminished anxiety over a potential global collapse. Month-to-date stocks are up an impressive +5.4%, and year-to-date equities are flattish, or down less than -1%.
With an endless amount of information flowing across our smart phones and computers, it becomes quite easy and tempting to chase news headlines, just like a hyper dog chasing a car. But even once an investor catches up (or reacts) to a headline, there's confusion around how to profit from the fleeting information. First of all, every plugged-in hedge fund and institutional investor has likely already traded on the stale information you received. Second of all, rarely is the data relevant to the long-term cash generating capabilities of the company or economy. And lastly, the news is more often than not, instantly factored into the stock price. Chasing news headlines only eaves individual investors holding the bag of performance-shattering transactions costs, taxes, and worn-out pricing.
The heightened volatility in late 2015 and early 2016 hasn't however prevented investors and so-called pundits from attempting to time the market. Any battle-tested investment veteran knows it's virtually impossible to consistently time the market (see also Market Timing Treadmill), but this fact hasn't prevented speculators from attempting the feat nonetheless. Famed investment guru, Peter Lynch, who earned an average +29% annual return from 1977-1990, summed it up well when he stated the following:
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
The Important Factors
As I've written many times in the past, the keys to long-term stock performance are not knee-jerk reactions to headlines, but rather these following crucial factors (see also Don't Be a Fool, Follow the Stool):
- Profits
- Interest Rates
- Sentiment
- Valuations
On the profit growth front, corporate income has been pressured by numerous headwinds over the last few years, including an export-shattering increase in the value of the U.S. dollar and a profit-squeezing collapse in energy sector earnings. As you can see from the chart below, the value of the U.S. dollar increased by about 25% from mid-2014 to early-2015, in part because of diverging global central bank policies (more hawkish U.S. Fed vs. more dovish ECB/international central banks). Since that spike, the dollar has settled into a broad range (95 – 100), and the former forceful headwind have now turned into modest tailwinds. This trend is important because an estimated 35-40% of corporate profits are derived from international operations.
Adding insult to injury, the roughly greater than -70% decline in forward energy earnings over the last 18 months has caused a significant hit to overall S&P 500 profits. The tide appears to be finally turning (or at least stabilizing) however, as we've seen oil prices rebound by about +30% this year from the lows in January. If these aforementioned trends persist, profit pressures in 2016 are likely to abate significantly, and may actually become additive to growth.
Profits are important, but so are interest rates. While incessant talk about the path of future Fed policy continues to blanket the airwaves (see also Fed Fatigue), absent a rapid increase in interest rates (say 300-400 basis points), interest rates remain unambiguously positive for equity markets, providing a floor for the oft-repeated volatility in financial markets. As long as stocks are providing higher yields than many bonds, and depositors are earning 0% (or negative rates) on their checking accounts, stocks may remain unloved, but not forgotten.
And speaking of unloved, the sentiment for stocks remains sour. One need look no further than the quarter-billion dollars in hemorrhaging outflows out of U.S. equity funds (see ICI Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows) since 2014. This deep underlying skepticism serves as a positive contrarian indicator for future equity prices. Right now, very few individual investors are swimming in the pool – the time to get out of the stock market pool is when everyone is jumping in.
And lastly, valuations remain very much in line with historical averages (approximatqely 17x 2016 projected earnings), especially considering the generational low in interest rates. Bears continue to point to the elevated CAPE ratio, which has been a disastrous indicator the last seven years (and longer), as a reason to remain cautious. The ironic part is that valuations are virtually guaranteed to improve a few years from now as we roll off the artificially depressed years of 2008-2010.
When you add it all up, zero (or negative) interest rates, combined with the other key factors of profits, sentiment, and valuations, equities remain an important and attractive part of a diversified long-term portfolio. Your objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance will always drive the proportion of your equity allocation. Nevertheless, some bond exposure is essential to smooth out volatility. Regardless of your investment strategy, chasing headlines, like a dog chasing a car, serves no purpose other than leaving you with a tired, unproductive investment portfolio.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC "Contact" page.
Invest with a Telescope…Not a Microscope
It was another bloody week in the stock market (S&P 500 index dropped -3.1%), and any half-glass full data was interpreted as half-empty. The week was epitomized by a Citigroup report entitled "World Economy Trapped in a Death Spiral." A sluggish monthly jobs report on Friday, which registered a less than anticipated addition of 151,000 jobs, painted a weakening employment picture. Professional social media site LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) added fuel to the fire with a soft profit forecast, which resulted in the stock getting almost chopped in half (-44%)…in a single day (ouch).
It's funny how quickly the headlines can change – just one week ago, the Dow Jones Industrial index catapulted higher by almost +400 points in a single day and we were reading about soaring stocks.
Coherently digesting the avalanche of diverging and schizophrenic headlines is like attempting to analyze a windstorm through a microscope. A microscope is perfect for looking at a single static item up close, but a telescope is much better suited for analyzing a broader set of data. With a telescope, you are better equipped to look farther out on the horizon, to anticipate what trends are coming next. The same principle applies to investing. Short-term traders and speculators are great at using a short-term microscope to evaluate one shiny, attention-grabbing sample every day. The investment conclusion, however, changes the following day, when a different attention-grabbing headline is analyzed to a different conclusion. As Mark Twain noted, "If you don't read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed."
Short-termism is an insidious disease that will slowly erode short-run performance and if not controlled will destroy long-run results as well. This is not a heretic concept. Some very successful investors have preached this idea in many ways. Here are a few of them:
''We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen." –Warren Buffett (Annual Newsletter 1994)
''If you spend more than 14 minutes a year worrying about the market, you've wasted 12 minutes'' –Peter Lynch
"Excessive short-termism results in permanent destruction of wealth, or at least permanent transfer of wealth" -Jack Gray Grantham
On the flip side, those resilient investors who have succeeded through investment cycles understand the importance of taking a long-term view.
"Whatever method you use to pick stocks or stock mutual funds, your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed." –Peter Lynch
"The farther you can lengthen your time horizon in the investment process, the better off you will be." – David Nelson (Legg Mason)
"Long term owners are more relaxed, more informed, more patient, less emotional." –John Templeton
"If you are really a long-term investor, you will view a bear market as an opportunity to make money." –John Templeton
"Long term is not a popular time-horizon for today's hedge fund short-term mentality. Every wiggle is interpreted as a new secular trend." –Don Hays
"In the long run, one of the greatest risk to your net worth is not owning stocks. Bonds do not grow. They can only return their face value at maturity…Inflation is a silent, insidious tax that erodes your net worth…Fortunately, there is an easy way to keep pace with and even beat inflation, and this is stocks." – John Spears
"In the short-term, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long-term a weighing machine." -Benjamin Graham
There has been a lot of pain experienced so far in 2016, and there may be more to come. However, trying to time the market and call a bottom is a fruitless effort. Great companies and investments do not disappear in a bear market. At times like these, it is important to stick to a systematic, disciplined approach that integrates valuation and risk controls based on where we are in an economic cycle. Despite all the recent volatility, as I've repeated many times, the key factors driving the direction of the stock market are the following: 1) Corporate profits; 2) Interest rates; 3) Valuations; and 4) Sentiment (see also Don't Be a Fool, Follow the Stool). Doom and gloom "Death Spiral" headlines may currently rule the day, but the four key stock-driving factors on balance remain skewed towards the positive…if you have the ability to put away your microscope and take out your telescope.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in LNKD or any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
Don't Do Something…Just Stand There!
Like a full plane hitting a rough patch of turbulence, investors have been shaken by the recent price volatility in the stock market over concerns of a slowing Chinese economy, plummeting oil prices, and a host of other alarming headlines. As a result, investors are left picking up the pieces of the S&P 500 decline, which currently sits off -11% from its 2015 highs (down -15% at the 1/20/16 low). The picture looks even uglier if you consider the Russell 2000 small cap index, which has collapsed -21% from its 2015 highs (-26% at the 1/20/16 low).
What now, and what does this mean? There has been all kinds of crazy technical trading activity occurring around heavy options expirations, stop-loss selling, and short cover buying. With all the frenetic gyrations in the stock market (e.g., 2,000 point swing in the Dow Jones over the last month), there have been no shortage of opinions on TV, on the internet or at the watercooler. However, the best sage advice probably came from 86-year-old investor legend, John "Jack" Bogle (founder of Vanguard Group – $3.4 trillion in assets under management at 12/31/15), who emphatically told investors to "Don't do something…just stand there!"
The advice to "stay the course" can be very counter-intuitive to human nature. In periods of stress, our brains tend to revert back to our ancestors' Darwinian survival instincts, which tell us to flee from the ferocious lion (see also Controlling the Investment Lizard Brain). The fact is these periods of turbulence are normal – no different than a bumpy flight into San Francisco. In fact, we've hit quite a few choppy air pockets in recent years:
- Debt Downgrade/Debt Ceiling Debate/European PIIGS Crisis (-22% in 2011)
- Arab Spring/Grexit Fears (-11% in 2012)
- Fed Taper Tantrum (-8% in 2013)
- Ebola Outbreak (-10% in 2014)
- China Slowdown Fears (-13% in 2015)
Through all of this mayhem, including the current 2016 dip, the stock market has still managed to rise an impressive +77% since the 2011 pullback, which sure beats the sub-1% yield earned on bank CDs.
Inevitably, with the recent price breakdown, speculation has begun to swirl around the dreaded "R"-word (aka, recession) again. In general, this is a fruitless effort. When the smartest Nobel Prize winning economists fail miserably at predicting recessions, it's hard to believe you or I will have a much better success rate. The great investor Peter Lynch astutely summed up recession forecasting as follows:
"It's lovely to know when there's recession. I don't remember anybody predicting 1982 we're going to have 14 percent inflation, 12 percent unemployment, a 20 percent prime rate, you know, the worst recession since the Depression. I don't remember any of that being predicted. It just happened. It was there. It was ugly. And I don't remember anybody telling me about it. So I don't worry about any of that stuff. I've always said if you spend 13 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 10 minutes."
The noted Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Samuelson offered this shrewd observation on recessions as well:
"The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions."
In other words, the stock market can predict recessions, but often times it is a horrible indicator for the health of the economy (e.g., see 2011-2015 above).
While I am definitely not a Nobel Prize winning economist, I can objectively point to supporting evidence showing we currently are not on the edge of a new recession. It is certainly true that a strong U.S. dollar and a Q4 energy earnings deterioration has been a drag on earnings, but these factors only paint a small part of the picture. Without going into gory economic detail, you do not need to be an expert to understand basic macro trends like employment, housing, auto sales, gasoline prices, and interest rates are providing a buttress to the economy.
As you can see from the chart below, the -73% cut in Q4 energy sector earnings, along with challenged exports from multinational corporations, has pressured profitability in the S&P 500. However, if you strip out the energy sector, earnings continue to grow. And although it's early in the 2016 earnings reporting season, so far 73% of companies are beating estimates by 3% on average.
The economic winds are definitely spinning, and we may not be completely through the turbulence, but rather than panicking, you're probably best served by following the advice of Jack Bogle by standing through the turmoil and look for opportunities when the volatility settles.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients hold positions in certain exchange traded funds (ETFs), but at the time of publishing had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC Contact page.
10 Ways to Destroy Your Portfolio
With the increased frequency of heightened volatility, investing has never been as challenging as it is today. However, the importance of investing has never been more crucial either, due to rising life expectancies, corrosive effects of inflation, and the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of government programs like Social Security, Medicare, and pensions.
If you are not wasting enough money from our structurally flawed and loosely regulated investment industry that is inundated with conflicts of interest, here are 10 additional ways to destroy your investment portfolio:
#1. Watch and React to Sensationalist News Stories: Typically, strategists and pundits do a wonderful job of parroting the consensus du jour. With the advent of the internet, and 24/7 news cycles, it is difficult to not get caught up in the daily vicissitudes. However, the accuracy of the so-called media experts is no better than weather forecasters' accuracy in predicting the weather three Saturdays from now at 10:23 a.m. Investors would be better served by listening to and learning from successful, seasoned veterans (see Investing Caffeine Profiles).
#2. Invest for the Short-Term and Attempt Market Timing: Investing is a marathon, and not a sprint, yet countless investors have the arrogance to believe they can time the market. A few get lucky and time the proper entry point, but the same investors often fail to time the appropriate exit point. The process works similarly in reverse, which hammers home the idea that you can be 200% wrong when you are constantly switching your portfolio positions.
#3. Blindly Invest Without Knowing Fees: Like a dripping faucet, fees, transaction costs, taxes, and other charges may not be noticeable in the short-run, but combined, these portfolio expenses can be devastating in the long-run. Whether you or your broker/advisor knowingly or unknowingly is churning your account, the practice should be immediately halted. Passive investment products and strategies like ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), index funds, and low turnover (long time horizon / tax-efficient) investing strategies are the way to go for investors.
#4. Use Technical Analysis as a Primary Strategy: Warren Buffett openly recognizes the problem with technical analysis as evidenced by his statement, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer." Legendary fund manager Peter Lynch adds, "Charts are great for predicting the past." Most indicators are about as helpful as astrology, but in rare instances some facets can serve as a useful device (like a Lob Wedge in golf).
#5. Panic-Sell out of Fear & Panic-Buy out of Greed: Emotions can devastate portfolio returns when investors' trading activity follows the herd in good times and bad. As the old saying goes, "The herd is lead to the slaughterhouse." Gary Helms rightly identifies the role that overconfidence plays when ininvesting when he states,"If you have a great thought and write it down, it will look stupid 10 hours later." The best investment returns are earned by traveling down the less followed path. Or as Rob Arnott describes, "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." Get a broad range of opinions and continually test your investment thesis to make sure peer pressure is not driving key investment decisions.
#6. Ignore Valuation and Yield: Valuation is like good pitching in baseball…very important. Valuation may not cause all of your investments to win, but this factor should be an integral part of your investment process. Successful investors think about valuation similarly to skilled sports handicappers. Steven Crist summed it up beautifully when he said, "There are no 'good' or 'bad' horses, just correctly or incorrectly priced ones." The same principle applies to investments. Dividends and yields should not be overlooked – these elements are an essential part of an investor's long-run total return.
#7. Buy and Forget: "Buy-and-hold" is good for stocks that go up in price, and bad for stocks that go flat or decline in value. Wow, how deeply profound. As I have written in the past, there are always reasons of why you should not invest for the long-term and instead sell your position, such as: 1) new competition; 2) cost pressures; 3) slowing growth; 4) management change; 5) excessive valuation; 6) change in industry regulation; 7) slowing economy; 8 ) loss of market share; 9) product obsolescence; 10) etc, etc, etc. You get the idea.
#8. Over-Concentrate Your Portfolio: If you own a top-heavy portfolio with large weightings, sleeping at night can be challenging, and also force average investors to make bad decisions at the wrong times (i.e., buy high and sell low). While over-concentration can be risky, over-diversification can eat away at performance as well – owning a 100 different mutual funds is costly and inefficient.
#9. Stuff Money Under Your Mattress: With interest rates at the lowest levels in a generation, stuffing money under the mattress in the form of CDs (Certificates of Deposit), money market accounts, and low-yielding Treasuries that are earning next to nothing is counter-productive for many investors. Compounding this problem is inflation, a silent killer that will quietly disintegrate your hard earned investment portfolio. In other words, a penny saved inefficiently will lead to a penny depreciating rapidly.
#10. Forget Your Mistakes: Investing is difficult enough without naively repeating the same mistakes. As Albert Einstein said, "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results." Mistakes will be made and it behooves investors to document them and learn from them. Brushing your mistakes under the carpet may make you temporarily feel better emotionally, but will not help your financial returns.
As the year approaches a close, do yourself a favor and evaluate whether you are committing any of these damaging habits. Investing is tough enough already, without adding further ways of destroying your portfolio.
Wade W. Slome, CFA, CFP®
Plan. Invest. Prosper.
DISCLOSURE: Sidoxia Capital Management (SCM) and some of its clients own certain exchange traded funds, but at the time of publishing SCM had no direct position in any other security referenced in this article. No information accessed through the Investing Caffeine (IC) website constitutes investment, financial, legal, tax or other advice nor is to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. Please read disclosure language on IC "Contact" page.


text: Mike is an actor, writer and director whose television performance credits include "The Middle" (ABC), "Hello Ladies" (HBO), "Happy Endings" (ABC), "The Kroll Show" (Comedy Central), Drunk History (Comedy Central), Conan, Kimmel, digital work for CollegeHumor and Funny or Die, and a whole bunch of commerce-encouraging short films (commercials). He assistant directed the 2013 CBS Diversity Showcase and served as Artistic Director of UCB-LA from 2014-2016. Mike is a staple of the UCB Theatre, in both NY and LA, where he has performed hundreds of times in such shows as Harold Night, Maude Night, Diamond Lion, ASSSSCAT, Baby Wants Candy, and Death by Roo Roo. He is repped by Odenkirk-Provissiero.

subset: commoncrawl


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Left gets it rightOctober 13,2012
Left gets it right
Today I got a solicitation and a filled out absentee ballot application from Vermonters First imploring me to vote absentee so we can ...stand up to those job killing anti freedom policies... being pursued in Montpelier, and I assume Washington. I tried to go to this organizations web site to give them a piece of what little mind I have left, but the link they give is not a valid one, a harbinger of their well oiled organizational capacity and accuracy, no doubt.
I am quite happy to support the re-election of Governor Shumlin, Senator Sanders and Congressman Welch, especially after reading last weeks news coverage of the Census Bureau report which found that only Vermont had both an increase in per capita income and a reduction in the number of citizens living below the poverty line in 2011. Granted, our nation has many serious problems, but in light of this Vermonters First diatribe, I am moved to ask, if we are so left, how come our elected Democratic and Progressive governor, senator, and congressman are able to get it right?
Stephen L. Finner, Ph.D.
BarreMORE IN LettersI am a Berlin School Board member and one of the three members from Berlin on the Act 46, 706B... Full StoryThe people of Washington County are very fortunate to have Bill Doyle as their state senator. Full StoryI would like to make everyone aware of the type of representative Tommy Walz of Barre really is. Full Story
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The Sharks, who will begin postseason play later this week in Vancouver, own the longest consecutive-season playoff streak in Bay Area major professional sports history. San Jose's hockey team has not missed the postseason since 2002-03, a run of nine straight appearances (the 2004-05 season was canceled because of the NHL lockout). But the longest streaks of the other six teams are worth noting...
Sharks Top List of Bay Area's Longest Playoff Streaks
From MercuryNews.com
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Hotel search
Trending now in London
- Most bookedPark Plaza Westminster Bridge London
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"We got a room change because our safe didn't work. Ended out with a view of Big Ben which was great. Sunday only the beds and bin were done no toilet rolls left and glasses left from night before, Called reception and toilet rolls were delivered to room. Cake and bubbly delivered to room for..."
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"The Paddington Hilton is Attached to Paddington Station so this is a perfect hotel to stay at when coming from London Heathrow Airport. The Heathrow Express goes from Heathrow to Paddington Station. "
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"Just returned from an 8 day stay at this hotel and would recommend it to all. The location is great on a quiet street 1/2 bloom away from the London Underground Glouscster Road station making it e theme you easy to get around throughout London. Lots of varied restaurants nearby. The room ( a st..."
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"This hotel is a must for anyone needing an overnight stay at or near Heathrow Airport. Access to the hotel is easy and extremely convenient. Highly recommended!"
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View London Hotels on a map
Best London Hotels
Accommodation in London
London excels at the art of hospitality, with some of the world's most famous hotels jostling politely for affection. If you want luxury hotels, you'll find it in top end landmarks where you can expect butler-like service, triangular sandwiches and sumptuous afternoon teas. If your budget won't stretch to those excesses, a wealth of mid-range London hotels offer a family friendly environment, central locations and impressive mod-cons and amenities such as WiFi and satellite television, all at reasonable prices. You can cut costs further with a variety of B&Bs and cheap hotels, but may find yourself in a more suburban setting and with only the most basic room.
When you book a stay with Hotels.com you may also earn free nights on participating London hotels by joining the Hotels.com Welcome Rewards program. so when you stay 10 nights you receive 1 night free*. If you sign up to our email newsletter, we'll send you the latest and exclusive deals, offers and coupons for hotels in London as well as other top destinations.
If you're planning a night out for a large group, our search filters let you add up to 8 rooms for immediate results and for larger groups we can help you with our bespoke group booking service to negotiate a better rate with the hotelliers. Being the organiser you may even find some hotels decide to upgrade you when you check in as a thankyou and for smaller groups, you'll earn Welcome Rewards for each person staying in your party.
Where to stay in London
Just beyond Marble Arch sit the leafy squares of Bayswater, a hugely popular area for visitors to London thanks to its central location and the attractive Victorian stucco buildings lining its streets. Another convenient tourist hotspot is the area surrounding Kensington's museums and parks, especially the more modestly priced Earls Court, which is only a short walk away from the glamor of High Street Kensington but considerably less costly. Victoria is a similarly well placed base, offering easy access to both the West End and Westminster, not to mention excellent transport links, but avoiding their more off-putting price-tags.
Be sure to using the Hotels.com map search facilities to find the best priced London hotel for your stay, on the maps we highlight the hotel plus all the major London landmarks. So if you're planning an evening at the theatre, a concert or a night out, check out an overnight stay in a hotel near the venue and for the additional cost, remember that most hotels will offer a free breakfast option - perfect for after a night out.
Things to see in London
London may be one of the world's busiest cities but a visit to Hyde Park will guarantee you plenty of greenery, with over 2.5 square kilometres of Royal Park to take in as you lick your ice-cream cone. It's not all grass, however, with the 40 acre Serpentine Lake offering free swimming during summer courtesy of its Lido. If shopping's more your bag, a visit to Covent Garden is a must. Whether checking out the painted street mimes or impromptu opera in the arcade, or poring over the arts and crafts knick-knacks in the covered market, Covent Garden's bohemian vibe is hard to better for quirky charm. History comes to life in style in Trafalgar Square, and in the shade of the towering Nelson's Column sits a pedestrianized square complete with fountain and café for contemplating the finer things. A visit to Buckingham Palace will top it all in royal style.
Most central hotels will have sightseeing information for you and some of the bus tours will offer a hop on, hop off service which is a convenient way to travel. If you're travelling into London by train, some operators offer money off coupons such as 2 for 1 entry on major London attractions.
How to get to London
Every major train line and motorway lead to London. Avoid driving a car in central London if you can, you'll end up paying the congestion charge, find difficulty in parking and then face high parking costs. Motorbikes on the otherhand are much more suited to London, there tends to be more parking available and there's no congestion charge, just keep an eye out for the bus lanes - some let you ride in them, some don't. Otherwise if you have to drive by car then park in one of the outer suburbs and commute in via train/ underground.
All mainline train stations are well connected via the underground but avoid travelling on the mainline trains between 7-10am and 4-7pm, these are the rush hour times and the cheap fairs are not valid on most trains during this time. Weekend travel is also cheaper than during the week. The London underground however has no restrictions or cheaper fares, but most trainfares offer a travelcard extension which can work out cheaper for day trips. If you're travelling a lot on the underground then look at getting an Oyster card as it may work out cheaper and like the travelcard train ticket it's also valid on the buses.
The underground will operate until just after midnight, but if you've missed the last tube then don't worry, there are plenty of night buses available where your tickets will still be valid. In central London you'll often find most locations such as Piccadilly Circus, Covent Garden, Leicester Square and Trafalgar Square typically within 5 to 10 minutes walk of each other, so avoid the cost and congestion of the tube and simply walk - don't worry about getting lost, there are plenty signposts and maps located along most streets.
When are the best times to travel to London?London is a booming and bustling cultural hub with an abundance of year-round activities. The balmy English summer months, from June through early September, offer an array of sun-kissed London activities, from open-air music festivals and theater to sports tournaments and street festivals. From November through to January, the city transforms into a winter wonderland of sparkling lights, firework displays, and unbeatable shopping sales – but if you travel during the quieter spring months of March and April you'll find a wealth of London hotel deals.
What are the must-see top attractions in London?London overflows with historical hotspots, and you won't want to miss the Tower of London, a sheer-walled medieval castle on the banks of the shimmering River Thames. This looming 11th-century stronghold today houses the glittering, gold-flecked Crown Jewels of the United Kingdom. Another royal revelation in London is Buckingham Palace, the elegant cream-and-gold residence of Her Majesty The Queen, surrounded by bright green, rose-studded gardens. Of course, no trip to the capital is complete without stopping by Big Ben, a 19th-century 96-meter-tall bronze-colored clock tower designed in a powerful Gothic Revival style.
What are the best types of food and restaurants in London?Thanks to its flourishing international culture, London boasts a smorgasbord of foodstuffs, from high-end French cuisine, to quick-and-easy takeaways. If you like Chinese food, check out Chinatown in London's SoHo district, and feast on traditional Peking duck and sizzling dim sum. Fine-diners looking for haute-cuisine should stay central, and head to the restaurants along Mayfair's wide leafy streets. Meanwhile, the cool, counter-cultural neighborhoods of Camden and Shoreditch offer a mishmash of Indian, Italian, and Vietnamese eateries, not to mention classic pub-style cooking.
What are the top things to do in London?Spend a morning ambling along London's Southbank, a family-friendly riverfront haven laden with fun and inspiring sights and attractions. Check out the Brutalist architecture of the National Theatre and the enormous London Eye – a giant slow-motion Ferris wheel reaching 135 meters and offering panoramic views of the city. Culture-vultures and history-buffs should spend some time exploring the city's top museums and galleries – from the mystical Egyptian mummies and Elgin Marbles of the British Museum to the colossal collections of European masterworks at the National Gallery.
What are some fun facts about London?London is littered with literary heritage, and many famous poets and writers are buried in Poets' Corner in Westminster Abbey – it is said that the tomb of English poet Edmund Spenser contains unpublished works by Shakespeare, who put them in Spenser's grave in honor of his literary genius. Talking of language, did you know that over 300 separate languages are spoken in the streets of London? And a final fact to impress your friends: Big Ben doesn't actually refer to the clock tower, but the Great Bell inside the top.
What kinds of public transport are there in London?It's a breeze to travel in London, as the city provides a wealth of efficient public transport. The London Underground – or Tube – covers all of the city center and much of the surrounding areas, while the London Overground light rail network will fill in any blanks. London's expansive network of double and single-decker red buses is also a great way to get around. If you're staying in one of the many luxury hotels in London, ask the porter to order you a black cab, and cruise the central streets in style.
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Physicians for Human RightsUsing science and medicine to stop human rights violations
Mass Atrocities
Mass atrocities — including certain war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide — are human rights violations directed against a population. PHR has prepared evidence of war crimes and testified at various international bodies, including tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, and the Special Court of Sierra Leone. Based on our investigations, we are working to prevent, stop, and provide accountability for mass atrocities in the following areas.
War Crimes in Libya
When Libyans first took to the streets to protest Colonel Muammar Qaddafi's autocratic rule in February 2011, Qaddafi's response was quick and brutal: attack protesters and target civilians in a deliberate campaign to quash dissent across the country. PHR documented some of the conflict's most severe human rights violations that must be addressed as a new civilian government emerges.
Crimes Against Humanity in Burma
PHR's research in Burma's Chin State revealed extraordinary levels of state and military violence against civilian populations. The abuses included forced labor, religious persecution, beatings, killing, disappearances, torture, rape, and widespread pillaging.
Refugee Crisis in Bangladesh
Stateless refugees from Burma face death from starvation and disease in makeshift camps because the government of Bangladesh denies them access to humanitarian aid. PHR has called for a comprehensive regional response to the Bangladesh government's failure to protect and care for the refugees, as well as to the human rights violations in Burma that have caused some 300,000 Muslim minority Rohingya to flee that country.
War Crimes in Afghanistan
As many as 2,000 Taliban prisoners are believed to have been killed by US-allied Afghan troops and buried in a mass grave in the northern desert of Dasht-e-Leili. PHR investigators discovered the mass grave in 2002. Since then, we have called for a full investigation of the alleged massacre.
Transitional Justice in Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, over 100 mass grave sites allegedly contain many of Afghanistan's estimated 1.5 million dead. PHR is helping to develop local forensic capabilities so the people of Afghanistan can address past abuses and begin the process of transitional justice, turning from violence to peace.
Health Crisis in Zimbabwe
In 2008, PHR witnessed the utter collapse of Zimbabwe's health system, resulting in the death of some 4,000 from cholera. Today, Zimbabwe remains a country battered and torn by political strife, infrastructure collapse, and grave human rights abuses. PHR continues to call for the correction of the health and human rights situation in the country.
Genocide in Darfur
Hundreds of thousands of people have died in the ongoing genocide in Darfur, Sudan. Following our three investigations into the crisis, PHR has mobilized health professionals, students, and members of the general public to press for urgently needed security in Darfur and compensation and restitution for survivors.
PHR Condemns Brazen Attack on Syrian Humanitarian Convoy (September 20, 2016)
PHR condemned the deadly overnight attack on a humanitarian aid convoy in Syria. The attack killed approximately 20 people, including aid workers and truck drivers, and destroyed 18 trucks loaded with vital food, medical, and other humanitarian supplies meant for tens of thousands of Syrians in opposition-held areas west of Aleppo city.
PHR Calls Forced Evacuation of Syrian Suburb a War Crime (September 2, 2016)
Hundreds of civilians began evacuating the besieged Damascus suburb of Moadamiya on Friday, piling into buses and heading for shelters in government-controlled neighborhoods nearby. The forced evacuation comes just a week after a similar evacuation emptied the nearby suburb Daraya, and today Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) said those evacuations are a form of forced displacement that constitute war crimes.
After Outcry Over Rescued Boy, PHR Debunks Russian Denial of Attacking Civilians (August 19, 2016)
PHR said it was deeply moved by images of a young boy rescued in Aleppo, and disputed the Russian government's assertion that it was not responsible for strikes against civilians
Physicians for Human Rights Honors Syrian Doctors, Two Philanthropists for Their Work (April 20, 2016)
Two Syrian doctors and the philanthropists Ayman and Sawsan Asfari were honored Monday evening, April 18, for their work supporting the people of Syria at a gala hosted by PHR in New York.
More Genocide in Darfur News »
More Health Crisis in Zimbabwe News »
More Mass Atrocities News »
More Refugee Crisis in Bangladesh News »
More Transitional Justice in Afghanistan News »
More War Crime in Afghanistan News »
The U.N. General Assembly Can't Let Syria Become Another Rwanda (September 19, 2016)
World leaders have been given the opportunity to change the situation in Syria and end the ongoing violence at the U.N. General Assembly in New York.
Doctors of Aleppo Abandoned, Again (August 17, 2016)
In their letter to U.S. President Barack Obama, Aleppo's remaining doctors pleaded not for tears but for a plan to end the Syrian government's all-out assault on hospitals and medical workers. And the response from the White House was the same as it's been for months: we're working on it.
The Rohingya Must Not Be Forgotten (May 24, 2016)
The last election in Myanmar gave hope to minority groups in the country. After five decades of military rule, the National League for Democracy (NLD), party of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in the country's first truly democratic election since 1990.
Assad, Beware the Long Arm of Justice (April 13, 2016)
As a shaky ceasefire in Syria appears on the verge of collapse, peace talks are set to resume in Geneva this week. It's a harrowing time for Syrians, made all the worse by the Syrian government continuing to willfully cut off deliveries of food and medicine to civilians.
More Genocide in Darfur Posts »
More Health Crisis in Zimbabwe Posts »
More Mass Atrocities Posts »
More Refugee Crisis in Bangladesh Posts »
More Transitional Justice in Afghanistan Posts »
More War Crime in Afghanistan Posts »
Update on Syria – April 2016 (April 2016)
Syria's cessation of hostilities, which came into effect on February 27, was supposed to reduce violence and guarantee delivery of humanitarian aid to desperate populations in need across Syria. The reduction of violence witnessed in the first weeks of the cessation has started to reverse course, and the cessation has largely failed on its promises to deliver life-saving humanitarian aid to the millions of Syrians in besieged and hard-to-reach areas.
Let Syria's Health Professionals Work (February 2016)
In this paper, PHR provides recommendations to donor governments that would demonstrate their commitment to the health and well-being of the Syrian people, to the principles of mutual recognition of health professional qualifications, and to core commitments by the global community to sustainable development in the region.
Forced Displacements and Destroyed Lives around Upper Paunglaung Dam in Shan State, Myanmar (October 2015)
In this report, Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) builds on its previous research on land confiscations in Myanmar by using an epidemiological survey tool to assess the human rights, livelihood, and health impacts on communities displaced by the reservoir created by Paunglaung dam in southern Shan state.
International NGOs Urge Ban Ki-moon to Negotiate Aid Access to Rakhine State, Myanmar (Burma) (May 2015)
Twenty-six international humanitarian aid and advocacy organizations have written to the United Nations Secretary-General, urging him to give his "personal attention" to the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine State, Myanmar (Burma) and to take "a personal lead" in negotiating for humanitarian access to all areas of Rakhine State.
More Genocide in Darfur Research »
More Health Crisis in Zimbabwe Research »
More Mass Atrocities Research »
More Refugee Crisis in Bangladesh Research »
More Transitional Justice in Afghanistan Research »
More War Crime in Afghanistan Research »


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Michelle Obama's 'Nigerian Girls' Speech and What it Misses
United States First Lady Michelle Obama
offered her thoughts, prayers and support in the wake of the unconscionable terrorist kidnapping of more than 200 Nigerian girls. The audio of the address and video of the address will be available online at www.whitehouse.gov at 6:00 a.m. ET, Saturday, May 10, 2014. [White House Press Office]
Her argument against what the Islamist terrorists of Boko Haram did, and have been doing for years to their fellow Nigerians with sickening brutality, is summarized this way:
This unconscionable act was committed by a terrorist group determined to keep these girls from getting an education – grown men attempting to snuff out the aspirations of young girls… In these girls, Barack and I see our own daughters. We see their hopes, their dreams and we can only imagine the anguish their parents are feeling right now."
From the official text of her speech, it's hard not to notice that she uses the word "terrorist" three times in describing the Islamists of Boko Haram who have openly taken credit for the kidnappings.
But not once does she use the words Boko Haram or Islam or Islamist.
There's a flip-side to this. Although Michelle Obama herself (or her speech-writers, if one were to be coldly pedantic about this) calls them terrorists, the ever-delicate – and hugely influential – BBC does not use the word even once in its coverage of her speech. (Here and here are some background notes on the BBC's obnoxious "use of terrorism" guidelines. And here is the policy itself.) Oddly, they have no problem inserting Boko Haram and Islamist into their report, though Mrs Obama's speech does not mention either term. She does call them terrorists, but to the oh-so-doctrinaire BBC, they're militants.
As for Mrs Obama's perfectly justifiable outrage at grown men "determined to keep these girls from getting an education," we wonder if she is aware of the other unconscionable atrocities for which this group has taken responsibility. Tragically, it's not only about education or girls. A very partial list:
• Boko Haram terrorists bombed a Catholic church, filled with worshipers, in January 2014, and killed 45 of them [source]. • Boko Haram terrorists carried out two roadside attacks on unsuspecting travelers in September 2013 and murdered no fewer than 159 of them, all fellow Nigerians ["22-Sep-13: A quiet weekend"] A week later they attacked the College of Agriculture in Yobe state and shot students as they slept, killing some forty of the young men. ["29-Sep-13: Sunday, bloody, bloody Sunday"]
• Boko Haram executed three human bomb attacks on Christian churches in the northern Nigerian state of Kaduna in June 2012. At least 50 people were killed, according to the Red Cross. 131 were injured. This was "the third weekend in a row in which Boko Haram has carried out bombings on churches" [BBC] The report points out that "Kaduna lies on the dividing line between Nigeria's largely Christian south and mainly Muslim north… Since 2009, it has targeted police stations and other government buildings, churches and schools. Hundreds of people have died in the attacks, and analysts suggest the group is trying to trigger clashes between Christians and Muslims."
• Boko Haram gunmen launched a terror attack on a Christian church in Gombe in January 2012, and managed to kill 6 and wound 10 of the Christian worshipers [source] (A UN agency has a detailed and much fuller timeline of Boko Haram atrocities and body counts here. It's a truly ghastly tally.)
Clearly – though Mrs Obama's appeal today gives zero hint of it – there are some powerful religious forces at work in the unfolding Nigerian tragedy which no amount of reportorial spin or speech-writing acrobatics can fully hide. That however doesn't stop them trying.
We're certain Mrs Obama would agree that the killing of our daughter in August 2001 at the hands of another overtly-Islamist terror group – Hamas – was unconscionable. And yes, it cheated Malki of her education. And certainly it destroyed her hopes and dreams. But it was principally about murder and especially about hatred. Did it bring anguish into our lives? Yes, and it's an anguish that grows as we see well-informed people who fail to comprehend the nature of attacks like the one that targeted Jewish children in a Jerusalem pizza store, and like the one that targeted Nigerian girls in their school.
Excising the Islamist dimension from their understanding of what is happening dooms some of the most influential people in our societies to continue seriously misapprehending the goals of Hamas, of Boko Haram and of the rising tide of terrorism-addicted savages with Islamist passion in their hearts. Ultimately, we all pay a price for this, and it's unconscionably heavy.
Visit This Ongoing War. / Frimet and Arnold RothFrimet and Arnold Roth
About the Author: Frimet and Arnold Roth began writing and speaking publicly soon after the murder of their fifteen year-old daughter Malki Z"L in the Jerusalem Sbarro massacre, August 9, 2001 (Chaf Av, 5761). They have both been, and are, frequently interviewed for radio, television and the print media, including CNN, BBC, New York Times, Washington Post, Al-Jazeera, and others. Their blog This Ongoing War deals with the under-appreciated price of living in a society afflicted by terrorism which, they contend, means the entire world. Frimet is a native of Queens, NY while her husband was born and raised in Melbourne, Australia. They brought their family to settle in Jerusalem in 1988. They co-founded the Malki Foundation in 2001 and are deeply involved in its work as volunteers. They can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.com .The author's opinion does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Jewish Press.
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Iphone App
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Product Details
Timeless, versatile and seriously stylish, the Ludlow will quickly become the foundation of your suiting wardrobe. This dapper dinner jacket is cut from a cotton fabric with metal fibers woven throughout (they create a unique texture for a rumpled yet sophisticated feel) from Italy's famed Carpini mill. It also has dapper peak lapels and a double vent in the back, making it perfect for the Rat Pack, international spies and now you.
Size & Fit Details
Ludlow dinner jacket in Italian cotton
Rated 3 out of 5 by 1 reviewer.
Rated 3 out of 5 by VicDamoneJr Nice dinner jacket but description was wrong First let me say that this is a really nice dinner jacket. It's hard to find a white dinner jacket with peak lapels that's made well. This one is well constructed and fit true to size. However, the description states, "Two-button closure". The jacket I received is a single button closure. And after looking at the pictures online, it's clearly single button on the model. Not sure how Jcrew made that mistake?? Oh well, I'm still keeping the jacket to wear I hot climates for formal occasions. August 8, 2016
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Jesus Christ is the answer to the problems facing our nation; Political correctness is satanic cowardice and barak obama is a minion of satan and a traitor who should suffer a traitor's fate on a gallows. Jesus came to earth, gave us the Gospels to teach us the best way to live our lives, and then suffered and died on ...Read More »
Author Archives: Bob Russell
The fascist moslem dictator is off his rocker, still. Obama once again voiced his plans to implement mandatory gun forfeiture as Australia and England have done. I can assure the fuhrer and everyone else in the world that I WILL NOT COMPLY, NOT EVER. Like his hero, Adolph Hitler, obama sees himself as ultimate ruler, the fuhrer. I assume ...Read More »
I just read an item on the Tea Party Command Center site that shows fuhrer obama and his satanic minions are ramping up the level of tyranny in our nation. They intend to bring in foreign military units under the auspices of the un to "fight extremism" in American cities. Sound good? Finally going to put a stop to ...Read More »
Pope Francis comes to the USA and is treated like royalty by fuehrer obama and the media minions of satan. Francis isn't my father, and he certainly isn't "holy". I believe Francis is the false prophet mentioned in the Holy Bible. In Matthew chapter 7 verse 15 Jesus warns us of false prophets, saying: "Beware of false prophets, who ...Read More »
Pastor John Hagee: Will America survive until 2017?
I am watching Pastor John Hagee in the beginning of a series about the survival of America, looking at the state of our nation today. Hagee makes many valid points, including talking about what he calls "counterfeit Christians" and pastors that accept abortion and homosexuality and refuse to stand up for the word of God. If this nation continues ...Read More »
Islam is a Satanic Cult of murder, not a 'religion'
Christianity is a religion but Islam is merely a satanic cult of rape, torture, murder, bestiality, and satan worship!!!!! Any "religion" that demands conformity or death and has different rules for those ruling and those being ruled is not a religion. Moslem men regularly rape male and female children, women, and animals and say it is their "right" to do ...Read More »
American Marine Castigates Black Lives Matter Frauds
I just watched a video done by a young black American hero in which he calls the Black Lives Matter punks out for the racists that they are, pointing out that ALL lives matter and that many white people fought, and died, to end slavery and that others fought, and died, to end segregation. It amazes me how little most ...Read More »
Kim Davis, the County Clerk of Rowan County, Kentucky has been found in contempt of court for refusing to issue marriage licenses to homosexual couples in spite of the illegal "supreme court" ruling that homosexuals MUST be allowed to marry. In the first place, marriage is a covenant with God and no government entity has any right to say who ...Read More »
Barak Obama has nothing but hate and treason in him. He hates America; the freedom and prosperity it stands for, white people, Christians, the military and veterans, black people who don't hate white people because they are white, unborn babies, and the police who arrest the people he doesn't hate, criminals. Obama seems to like moslems, illegal alien invaders, ...Read More »
Good people serving those who served the nation
I spend some of my free time doing volunteer work at the local veterans center and it has proven to be a wonderful experience that has helped me improve physically and mentally. I am very limited in what I can do due to disability caused by a stroke on August 19, 2014 so I am not much help but I ...Read More »
Black lives don't matter
With all of the hurrah over the death of Michael Brown when he attacked a police officer, after he robbed a convenience store, and the deaths of a few other black hoodlums the race pimps bussed in "protestors" to riot and destroy black neighborhoods to make their "point" if they have one beyond "we can destroy the homes and businesses ...Read More »
The 2ND amendment does not protect your right to hunt!
Bernie Sanders, senator and democrat candidate for president recently said that guns "not designed for hunting" should not be owned by citizens. Well then, why was the 2nd Amendment written, to allow citizens to own muskets or single shot hunting rifles so we can shoot a squirrel, rabbit, deer, or varmint and for the type of firearm we can ...Read More »
The Department of Homeland Security and the TSA
Government tyranny has rapidly ramped up over the last 7 years as unconstitutional government agencies have assumed an ever enlarging role in the subjugation of We the People and control of every aspect of life in America. Barak Obama has already rendered most of the Constitution irrelevant, adding to the damage done by George W. Bush and a Republican controlled ...Read More »
Why Al Gore will run for president
While listening to the Mike Gallagher Radio Show on Friday August 14, 2015, I heard a clip of Al Gore talking about running for president in 2016. Gore is still whining about his loss in 2004 and talking about the controversy over the "hanging chads". What I didn't hear him mention were the tens of thousands of military votes ...Read More »
How should christians deal with homosexuality?
Treating homosexuality as a normal or "alternate" lifestyle as a matter of government policy is a slap in the face of God and will be a large factor in the destruction of this nation, along with abortion. The question that we have to answer is, how do we deal with what God calls perversion and an abomination? The homosexual ...Read More »


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Alternative Explanations
There is little doubt that this movie is very much open to interpretation. There are several possible explanations and in most cases plenty of viewers will love it even though they have no idea what happened. To be honest there can't be many people who completely understood the movie the first time they watched it unless they had some inside knowledge.
The real explanation follows "The Philosophy of Time Travel" and you can read it here. When you follow this explanation there doesn't seem to be any holes in the plot. Every scene makes sense, the story is consistent and the whole movie comes together.
Here are some of the alternative theories.
It is implied in the film that Donnie is a schizophrenic and therefore the film is him going through an episode of his illness. This theory is plausible because every single event could be put down to this. Hallucinations and hearing voices is a schizophrenic trait and could easily explain Frank's appearance. There is a scene with Donnie's therapist at the end of the film where she admits to giving Donnie placebo's as medication for his illness. This would suggest that he in fact never was a schizophrenic. For me Richard Kelly put the idea of Donnie being schizophrenic into the movie deliberately as a red herring. It's an easier alternative theory that allows first time viewers to still enjoy the movie.
The whole movie was a dream theory is of course possible but ultimately pointless. When he goes to sleep on October 2nd at the beginning of the movie he dreams this mystical adventure just before he gets smooshed by jet engine.
The obvious hole in this theory is why do the first few minutes of October 2nd happen twice? An easy theory to enjoy maybe for the first watch but why would the director create this amazing magical alternative Universe theory and then just make it all out to be a dream?
Donnie Is Shown the Future
This is quite a popular theory. It portrays Frank as a kind of Ghost of Christmas Future character who saves Donnie and then either shows him or allows him to live the next 28 days of his life. At the end Donnie returns back to October 2nd and now has the opportunity to choose his own fate.
So many bad things happened in those 28 days including his girlfriend getting killed and Donnie becoming a killer himself that he decides to stay in bed at the end of the film to sacrifice himself for the good of others. By dying he saves Frank, Gretchen and his mother and sister from a plane crash.
Unfortunately this theory asks more questions than it answers:
- Why is Frank giving Donnie this choice?
- Why does he tell Donnie to Flood the school and burn down Jim Cunningham's house?
- Why does Frank appear as a dead version and an alive version?
- Why does "The Philosophy Of Time Travel" appear in the story?
- How does the unexplained jet engine figure in the story?
The biggest weakness in this theory is the fact that Donnie is shown or lives out a completely different future from what would normally have happened. Most of the events only happen because we are within a Tangent Universe.
- Frank gets Donnie to flood the school which means Donnie walks Gretchen home.
- Frank gets Donnie to burn down Cunningham's house which leads to the party
- Donnie rips the engine off the plane his mother and sister are on
None of these things would happen in the real world. What's the point in Donnie being shown an alternate future and then given the choice to live or die based on events that wont happen?
There are just too many plot flaws with this theory. It just doesn't work and there are virtually no scenes in the movie to back it up.
The Looping Tangent Universe
here is a theory out there that follows The Philosophy of Time Travel but with one major change. The idea is that every 28 days the Tangent Universe collapses, then loops back round to October 2nd and starts over again. Basically the Tangent Universe is a repeating time-loop that will continue until Donnie is successful in returning the jet engine into the Primary Universe. The film is Donnie's first successful attempt at returning the jet engine and there have been several failed attempts before.
This explanation can be read at www.themoviegoer.com/donnie_darko. One of the reasons this theory is so popular is it usually comes up on the first page of google if search for a Donnie Darko explanation.
I don't think this idea follows The Philosophy Of Time Travel accurately enough. The Tangent Universe only lasts for several weeks before it collapses and destroys the whole Universe. If it looped back round every time then the Universe wouldn't be in danger.
This theory seems to hinge on only a few pieces of the movie. The main basis of this theory is that Donnie wakes up on the mountain laughing at the beginning of the film. He's laughing as if he remembers something from the previous Tangent Universe loop.
Now the major flaw there is Donnie wakes up on the mountain on October 1st yet the Tangent Universe doesn't start until midnight on October 2nd. Why would time loop round to before the start of the Tangent Universe? Another thing is wouldn't you find it a little amusing if you woke up half way up a mountain. Surely that is a better explanation for him laughing.
Another huge flaw in this theory is if it was true the Universe would never be in any danger. Everytime Donnie failed the 28 days would just restart. This goes completely gainst the PoTT and makes the whole thing quite pointless.
Another point in this theory is the characters like Mrs Pomeroy, Grandma Death, Dr. Thurman all seem to have some kind of inside knowledge and a sense of what's going, like they have done this before. Well yes they do but not because they have done this several times before, it's because they are the Manipulated Living. There behaviour may be irrational or bizarre as they are trying to guide the Living Receiver to return the Artifact. They subconsciously behave in the necessary way in order for Donnie to succeed.
This is my interpretation: Donnie had mental issues (fear and love) from growing up, you know teenage boy in high school! Since this was such an important time for him he decides to live different. He falls in love vandalises and burns someones house! You can clearly see he is rebellious in school and insults his brainwashing teacher and Cuningham! I think that he has a realization after Frank saves him! Frank is very important in my opinion because he symbolizes a friend that can be good or bad, and we see this throughout the movie! The fact that Frank saved him means that now Frank must die for killing his girlfriend! I think that Donnie's girlfriend death has a symbolic double meaning! There are so many double meanings in this movie btw! The fact that she doesn't know who Donnie is at the end means that she never fell in love with him and therefore everything after October 2 didn't happen! the whole point of this film is that we are all meant to die, so if we don't live a full life with all the experiences that Donnie went through, we become mentally ill, hence the giant scary rabbit. As we develop we are bounded by fear and love, but Donnie refused to acknowledge this thats why he was schizophrenic and did not trap himself between fear and love which explains the flooding and vandalism and arson were all ways he filled the void in his life, guided by Frank, whose so important in the middle of all this because he was a friend, but a friend who was not a bully nor a buddy like those other two guys he was drinking with and were with him when he shot Frank! This is all filled with symbolism in my opinion because he shoots Frank after he kills his girlfriend which can mean that Frank stole his love and thats why he shot him, but at the same time Frank woke him up and saved his life and thats why Donnie keeps seeing him throughout the film! The ugly bunny in the mirror is defenetly a symbol of the mind sickness and the fact that Frank was the person under the suit means that he was a great influence and a decisive force which Donnie saw as a reflection of himself! The time travel thing is so artificially detached from the double meanings and symbolisms in my opinion it is not important at all! That mentally ill old woman that keeps checking her mail is an alternate future reflection of what would happen if Donnie never experiences the aftermath of October 2! Meaning that he would end up in a house alone waiting for someone to contact him and gets nothing in return! I swear I have so much more to say but i realize that everyone has their own interpretations! Sorry this was so long...
I believe Donnie Darko chose to travel back in time to October 2nd to kill himself to save his girlfriend and to stop the 28 days from happening.
on October 2nd Donnie was waken up by Frank _a manipulated dead_ and how Frank could be there if he wasn't killed by Donnie in the (TU) that means at the moment Frank saved Frank from the engine he was already a manipulated dead because Donnie shot him before that , IT'S A FUCKIN LOOP
what explains grandma death checking her mail box again and again like she is in a loop
It could be that it was in fact Elizabeth Donnie's younger sister that was was schizophrenic and made up that she had a brother called donnie . Or that it was his older sisters boyfriend had a alter ego called donnie . Donnie wasn't real
Willie, I like the way you think. <3
What's a Fuck-ass?
I like to think when Donnie wakes on the mountain he has already been crushed by the jet engine and killed. the next month is him experiencing meaningful aspects of life such as love, maturity, and accepting death. He is guided through this purgatory like trip by things that are familiar to him such as friends and teachers and of course frank, the manipulated dead who ultimately is conceived through Donnie's first hand actions. Donnie is a skeptic who eventually throughout this trip develops a deep belief and trust in some higher power, this is why the rules of this so called "tangent universe" are presented in a scientific way so he can wrap his head around what is happening. The last thing Donnie experiences is his full accepting of his fate at the epicenter of this world mixed with an excitement for whats next a.k.a afterlife. Donnie Darko is a metaphysical movie about the relativity of time's role in the events following death and one boys journey to understand the entire scope of life and death. schizophrenia is a red herring and the science found in the philosophy of time travel act purely as an introduction and guide for both Donnie and the viewer.
I hope that when the world comes to an end, I can breathe a sigh of relief, because there will be so much to look forward to.
end of the world is synonymous with Donnie's death
Who els has a big crush on donnie😅😍😍
Or what if its a finale destination type of belief,he messed everything up by not dieing,but that wouldeave the question of why did frank save him to begin with


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In the video below, I created a small lab with a single router. I changed the hostname and domain name just to demonstrate config changes will remain when the project is re-opened.