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In today's show, co-hosts Matt Lutovsky (@MLutovsky) and Troy Machir (@TroyMachir) discuss:
- The ratings for the Little League World Series
- The decline of black players in Major League Baseball
- How Little League can help young people prepare for life
- College football kicking off with Texas A&M at South Carolina on Thursday
- National Champion predictions
- NFL happenings over the weekend, including Sam Bradford's ACL injury, Wes Welker's concussion, Brandon Meriweather's helmet-to-helmet hits, Richie Incognito's possible signing and more
We also talk about fantasy football and our upcoming draft this week. The discussion includes draft strategies, different kinds of formats, and much more. Click here to go right to the fantasy football talk.
We finish up by chatting with Sporting News NHL writer Sean Gentille (@seangentille), who discusses awards shows, burners, "Murphy Brown", podcast favorite Weird Al Yankovic's star turn at the Emmy's, people wearing "Lucy" promotional hats, what would be more exciting: "Austin Powers 4" or "Wayne's World 3"?, "Is ____ Cool?" RE: Jimmy Kimmel, and much, much more. Sean's interview starts at the 55:21 mark of the show. Click here to go right to Sean's interview.
We also talk about "birthday weeks," Kirk Herbstreit listening to this podcast (he doesn't), when someone "disagrees to agree", hospital passes, "I'm with you, Louganis," #NationalDraftDay, and, of course, "red-headed quarterback fantasy points".
Look for new episodes of the Sporting News Podcast around 1 p.m. ET every Tuesday and Friday on the SN podcast feed. Bookmark it, look for us on iTunes, Stitcher, Blubrry (Roku, GoogleTV, Android), follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, send us an e-mail -- we're here for you.


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Home-Options is about choices: it's about where you live, work, train and how you
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Home-Options give you the information you need so you can make the right choices.
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Atlantic 10 Championship - Day Two Preliminaries
Feb. 17, 2005
Five Duquesne University women's swimmers qualified for tonight's finals at day two of the Atlantic 10 Championship. The Dukes were led by junior Sarah Breisinger who finished 15th in the 200-yard individual medley qualifier with a school record time of 2:11.99. Also qualifying for the Red and Blue in the 50-yard freestyle were senior Deidre Rodeheaver (9th place in 24.63), junior Liz Barba (11th place in 24.76), sophomore Laura Brodbeck (12th place in 24.93) and senior Laura Kephart (13th place in 24.99). Tonight's finals begin at 6:30 pm.


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Germany continues along austerity track
Tragic when it doesn't occur to an economics minister that needed investments in infrastructure and education could be made if only taxes on the upper class were increased.
Why the Berlin Wall fell remains a relevant question today
For millions, the opening of the Berlin Wall 25 years ago resulted in genuine and understandable euphoria.
Germany: The votes are in
Political porcelain has been broken, raising questions on what went wrong and, to quote that old Abbott and Costello routine, "Who's on first?" for the next five years.
German sour pickles: Gauck, militarism, and Gaza
When politicians vacation and little action is expected, the words German journalists use for this is "Saure-Gurken-Zeit" or "sour pickle time."
Left, right, and even satirical parties get votes in Germany
In early June, Europe had to digest the results of the European Parliament elections - and choke down some pretty nasty clumps.
Germany's Ukraine policy aims for the impossible
Germany is having difficulty with its Ukraine policy.
Germany: Scandal, pornography, and naked truths
Gossip and scandal are part of politics; the German media is currently overflowing with these commodities.
"GroKo" Politics - No real change for Germany
Some have suggested the German "Word of the Year" should be "whistleblower" - in the escalating Denglish language here breezily called "Neu-Deutsch" ("New German").
Germany's Left party becomes the official opposition
Left-wing Die Linke party MP Gregor Gysi took over as leader of the opposition when Germany's two largest parties united in a "grand" coalition.
Low wage workers on the move in Germany too
This is Burger King - it could be in Augusta, Maine, or Anaheim, California, and the fatty Whoppers taste the same. But it's not; most customers here speak German.


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LEXINGTON, Ky. - The University of Hawaii women's volleyball team is No. 8 in the American Volleyball Coaches Association preseason poll released Monday.
Among the returnees for the Rainbow Wahine are Emily Hartong, a second-team All-American last season after posting a .369 hitting percentage, 25th in the nation, and averaging 2.23 kills per set; and Jane Croson and Mita Uiato, both picked for last year's Western Athletic Conference first team.
Also back is Kalei Adolpho of Molokai, who averaged 1.06 kills and 1.10 blocks per set. Kamehameha Schools Maui graduate Ginger Long is a redshirt freshman.
Article Photos
UCLA was picked No. 1 in the AVCA poll, receiving all but six of the 60 first-place votes. Texas is ranked second.
Hawaii, which has moved to the Big West, will open its season on Aug. 24 against Albany in the Rainbow Wahine Invitational.


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EAST LAMPETER TOWNSHIP, Pa. - Police and the Conestoga Valley School District are investigating an incident where a BB gun was brought into the high school.
East Lampeter Township police say a 14-year-old girl and 15-year-old boy posted a picture on Instagram and Twitter of them with the BB gun inside the school.
Police say no students were ever threatened or harmed, but the teens who posted the picture will be charged. The students have also been suspended from school until the investigation is over.
Video: Watch Katelyn Smith's report.


text: As this weekend continues, I'm trying to get my July ducks in a row. Part of that involves answering some common questions and concerns that are floating around this off-season, especially concerning the lockout. If you'd like to have a question answered, or get my opinion on something, fill out the form below, and I'll see what I can do. I reserve the right to use your name and question/comment/concern in article form, but I will never share your email. Thanks everyone, and happy Independence Day!


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Futsal benefiting RDC soccer program
It's a sport in which many of the greatest soccer players in history honed their skills.
The likes three time FIFA world player of the year, Lionel Messi, Pele and Cristiano Ronaldo grew up playing futsal.
RDC Queens head coach Dave Colley can see the benefits of the sport, which is played locally on a basketball court, with five players on each side including a goaltender.
"It's the fastest sport I've been involved with and there are a lot of skills that can be transferred to the outdoor game," said Colley, who coached the Queens during their first taste of the game last weekend at Ambrose College in Calgary.
"It's a different sport than the outdoor game because it's a much smaller area, but you get an opportunity to work on individual skills such as hanging onto the ball, and passing, that can only help when you're outdoors. You get better at the first touch and what to do with that first touch.
"Plus you have one or two defenders on you right away. You have to be more skillful while there's less running."
Besides the playing area the ball is one size smaller than the outdoor game, plus it's a bit heavier and set so it doesn't bounce like a normal ball. Goals are approximately three-yards wide and 2.2-yards high.
Colley noted that players also need to watch their turnovers.
"You make a turnover here and it's gone the other way," he said.
The Queens posted a very respectable 2-1-2 record, finishing third in the six-team tournament. The Kings were also third with a 2-3 record.
Kings head coach Steve Fullarton agreed with Colley in that players need to react quickly and work on handling the ball in a smaller area.
"It's completely different than the outdoor game and the guys struggled a bit with some of the rules and getting used to the game," he said. "But we've seen it once and we know what we're up against, so we can go back to the drawing board and prepare for the next tournament. I do know the guys had fun and they're looking forward to Lakeland."
Lakeland College in Lloydminster will host the second tournament, Feb. 15-17, with the top four teams advancing to the ACAC finals March 15-16 in Olds.
Fullarton also sees the benefits his players will get from the game.
"The speed and how quickly you need to think the game has to be a benefit," he said. "And it's a chance for the guys to get together and compete during the winter."
Usually the RDC players played some indoor soccer during the winter, but usually just practiced once a week.
"This is a big benefit," said Colley. "Normally we practice once a week, but now with futsal everybody is into it and excited about the season. The girls are going into this wanting to win. You can see their natural competitiveness."
Both RDC coaches expect at least six returnees next for next year's outdoor season.
"I could have up to nine players back, plus we have a good group of recruits," said Colley. "We have four or five local girls committed and five from outside the area. And there's always one or two walk-ons. We'll have 17 or 18 players who are at the level we like."
Colley, who placed third in the ACAC last season, is also working on players two years down the road.
"We need to look that far ahead to get the quality of player we need to win in this league."
Fullarton has already added one new face for next season in Alim Hirji of Calgary, who is playing with the futsal squad.
"We already have eight or nine new players committed and we're talking with several others," he said. 'We'll have five or six returning players."
l The basketball squads play a home-and-home with St. Mary's University College, playing Friday at RDC and Saturday in Calgary. Girls tip off at 6 p.m. with the men to follow.
The Kings, who are ranked No. 4 in Canada, will have their hands full with the Lightning, who split with SAIT last weekend. They have seven-foot centre Brett Roughead and one of the top scorers in the country in Randall Mosca, who is averaging 24 points per game.
l The volleyball squads are on the road playing a twin bill in Medicine Hat Friday and Saturday. The Kings, 14-0, are still ranked No. 1 in the country with the Queens seventh.
l The hockey Queens are off, but six players will compete for the ACAC All-stars in a pair of games against Team Alberta of the Canadian Women's Hockey League — Saturday at 6:30 p.m. and Sunday at 2 p.m. at Win Sport Canada Arena at Canada Olympic Park.
Goaltender Camille Trautman was a unanimous selection to the ACAC team. Forwards Gillian Altheim, Rachael Hoppins and Laura Salomons and defencemen Nikki Connor and Natasha Steblin are also on the 22-member team.
l Trautman was a double award winner this week. She received the Boston Pizza RDC female athlete of the week award and was named the ACAC female athlete of the week. She posted her fourth shutout of the season in a 3-0 win at Grant MacEwan. She has a league-leading 1.50 goals-against-average and .938 save percentage.
Volleyball's Amber Adolf and futsal's Tara Berger were runners up for the award.
Volleyball's Tim Finnigan, who was player of the match in both wins over SAIT, received the top male award. Finnigan had 33 kills, four aces, 16 digs and four stuff blocks in the two matches.


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The holiday season always rings in highs and lows for me. I'm mindful of time passing, the year dying, the river of life with its relentless surprises, some not altogether welcome. People out there carry burdens that no amount of holiday sparkle can suppress.
I sound gloomy today, don't I? Maybe it's the vog.
It cheers me up to go to High Street. A while ago I was walking in the plaza of the State Building in Wailuku feeling grateful.
It was a beautiful clear day. From the sunny glory of the lawn, with its tall trees and ever-fascinating view of the mountains, I could see that the clouds hanging above the walls of 'Iao wore their puffiest gowns.
People on the East Coast were enduring the aftermath of Sandy and I was on top of the world. It wasn't always so. A soulful man gave me an impromptu prophesy some months before during some dark days. "Don't worry," he said. "God will set you on a mountain." And there I was.
It's hard to be downcast in the heart of Wailuku. In this era of strip malls and deadening big-box stores, I was reminded of what a jewel we have in the town's civic center.
Over a period of 20 years, starting over a hundred years ago, Maui county fathers commissioned a quadrangle of four fine buildings facing one another across High Street, each architecturally distinct but sensitive to its neighbors. All with red roofs, three with stucco. The result was a whole that delighted Maui then and continues to charm today.
The first face of the new county seat, completed in 1909, was the new Wailuku Court House designed by the prominent Honolulu architect Henry Livingston Kerr. He chose hollow concrete block "new in the territory," according to Kristen Holmes' "Under A Maui Roof."
Moulds were made from basaltic lava rock and from these wooden casts constructed from which the blocks were fashioned. "Blueing" was added to the concrete to simulate the color of the original gray stone. Two imposing Ionic columns up a flight of steps give the building a classical appeal.
The second building to arise on High Street was the classic little Mediterranean-styled county office building designed by Maui architect William D'Esmond, completed in 1925 at a cost of $57,000. The pretty building with its Spanish tiled roof and dual arcades on the first and second floors was considered a symbol of the county's effort to wrest autonomy from the territorial government.
The third addition to the Wailuku civic center was Charles W. Dickey's Maui branch of the Library of Hawaii, situated across High Street from the county building. Its stone walls are covered in white plaster, the interior is finished in oak and the red roof is his signature style with its complex intersecting planes.
Dickey grew up on Maui, cousin to the Baldwin clan, son of Charles H. Dickey and Annie Alexander. She was a daughter of the missionaries William P. and Mary Ann Alexander who made their home in the white, gabled mission house in Wailuku, just below the Bailey House Museum. Ka'ahumanu Church is the latest incarnation of the Wailuku mission church, dating back to the 1830s.
Dickey studied Beaux Arts architecture at MIT and his early work in Honolulu refected this classical training. But after his return to Hawaii in 1924 from years in Oakland, he quickly became noted for his residences that were Hawaiian in flavor, due chiefly to the roof he popularized, if not originated.
The trademark "Dickey"or "Hawaiian" roof, as it has been called, is characterized by its high peak, low eaves, wide spread and double pitch. Dickey and his partner Hart Wood were masters of detail.
Note the glazed ceramic tiles on the library's drinking fountain and front steps, not cost effective in today's environment, I'm sure. When the building opened on Aug. 6, 1929, The Maui News proclaimed it "modern library perfection."
In 1930, Dickey designed the Territorial Office building across a side street from the library, the most modern and most restrained of the four buildings, elegant with a wide porch, high rectangular windows and four squared columns that play against the classical pillars against the street.
That day I bought a veggie burger at the Wailuku Subway and took myself to the bench in front of the library where I enjoyed the architecture as I ate.
It was such a simple moment, eating that sandwich, but I was content.
* Laurel Murphy is a former staff writer for The Maui News whose "Keiki o ka 'Aina" column appears each Tuesday.
She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.com.


text: As a premier academic institution, Northwestern University understands that recruiting high-caliber talent is critical to the advancement of its strategic mission. Staff employees play a key role in supporting the University's mission and in realizing Northwestern's goals. To assist you in recruiting and selecting this talent, your area's assigned Staffing Consultant within the Office of Human Resources is available to guide you through the process of the selection and hiring of a new staff employee. You can follow these steps to recruit a new staff employee:


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If you've ever walked into an enormous old church in Europe and noticed the spectacular acoustics, you might have followed that thought with the realization that a musical performance in such a space would be fantastic. As more churches serve as venues for concerts, we are able to bask in the glory of those wonderful acoustics. If that sounds appealing to you, then mark your calendars for a visit to Italy in the fall so you can attend a series of concerts in Rome's beautiful churches for the International Festival of Sacred Music and Art.
The Festival Internazionale di Musica e Arte Sacra, as it's known in Italian, was started in 2002 and takes place each year in November. The festival is organized by the Vatican, so the concerts are held in the "Papal Basilicas of Rome" – including St. John Lateran, St. Ignatius Loyola, and Santa Maria in Aracoeli. St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City is even the setting for some performances. The Vienna Philharmonic is the resident orchestra for the festival.
Planning a Trip? Browse Viator's Vatican City tours and things to do.
The Vatican's Festival Internazionale di Musica e Arte Sacra is designed to increase awareness of the Fondazione Pro Musica e Arte Sacra (Sacred Art and Music Foundation), which raises money to restore religious art, artifacts and buildings. Anyone who wants to attend the International Festival of Sacred Music and Art, then, must be a contributing member of the fountation. Donations start at €75 and go up (way up) from there. Note that the more you donate, the better your chances are of getting a good seat. A €75 donation, for instance, means you get a single seat in one of the side naves.
Check the official festival website for the dates of this year's festival, as well as the program of events.


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Toronto RECOMMENDATIONS See all
Exploring the Historic Casa Loma Castle in Toronto
By Jessica F, February 2013
Built between 1911 and 1914 by well-known Canadian financier, industrialist and military officer Sir Henry Pellat, it took $3.5 million and over 300 laborers to complete the project. After only 10 years of ownership, however, Pellat endured financial hardship and was forced abandon Casa Loma. Eventually, it was restored by the Kiwanis Club of Casa Loma and opened as a tourist attraction in 1937.
Editor's Note: This recommendation was taken from our Toronto Things to Do blog. Visit the original post to continue reading the full post and to learn more about things to do in Toronto.


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Carolyn Murphy as a Multifaceted Woman for Vogue Italia (Forum Buzz)
Vogue Italia is always one of the last publications to be revealed, but now we're finally catching a glimpse of its September issue. Shot by Steven Meisel, as usual, Carolyn Murphy portrays a multifaceted woman (look close and you'll see she actually appears twice) among a bevy of masked women. "I've always had a weird affection […]Read more


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09 Sep 2010
Any hints whom to start as WR 3 in my Keeper league.
Kubiak was quite down on robinson, If I remember correctly, but Fleaflicker is projecting him about thrice as high as ward.
5 replies , Last at 09 Sep 2010, 10:11pm by agauntpanda
Hard to say, given the QB situations each receiver has. I do think Robinson has the bigger upside for week 1, but I've always seen Ward as the guy who's likely to pick up 60-70 yards even on a bad day. If it were my team, I'd probably go with Ward.
I go Hines all day.
I third the votes for Ward.
What about Hines versus Johnny Knox?
With that one you have to go with Knox; this matchup is pretty much why you drafted him.


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Officials have restored power after a large outage on west sides of the metro Friday morning.
Officials with OG&E said a substation was out near 101st Street and Rockwell Avenue, causing 9,680 homes and businesses to lose power.
Crews arrived and repaired a bad switch.
They restored power about 1:30 a.m.


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Star Tracks: Monday, May 16, 2016 42 years, 2,191 covers and 55,436 stories from PEOPLE magazine's history for you to enjoy
Latest News!
- Real Housewives of Miami's Alexia Echevarria Is 'Heartbroken Over the Sudden Passing' of Late Husband Herman Echevarria
- Read the Cover Story: Brad & Angelina Split After 12 Years: It's Over
- Who's Caroline Manzo's Most Stylish Son? The Manzo'd with Children Star Gets Candid!
- Princess Kate Braves the Canadian Rain in Her Favorite 12-Year-Old Boots!
- How a Young Campaign Staffer Battling Stage 4 Cancer Helped Hillary Clinton Decide Her VP
People Top 5
LAST UPDATE: Tuesday February 10, 2015 01:10PM EST
PEOPLE Top 5 are the most-viewed stories on the site over the past three days, updated every 60 minutes
- December 27, 2004
- Vol. 62
- No. 26
It was a year of terrific encores, comebacks and fresh new debuts
Gwen Stefani
Leave it to Stefani to release the disc that made us feel most hella good in 2004. Making her solo debut, the No Doubt front-woman channels her inner Material Girl with a dance-pop CD that will have you partying like it's 1984. Even on her own, Stefani displays a knack for picking the right collaborators, including Eve and Andre 3000.
George Michael
'80s British pop icons like Morrissey, the Cure and Duran Duran all had comebacks in '04. But it was Michael who made the most triumphant return of all. His deeply personal lyrics reflect an artist who has survived scandal and come out as a gay man, while his sumptuous sounds reveal that he is still one of pop's premier craftsmen.
This is the album that Janet Jackson wishes she had made instead of Damita Jo. Indeed, Afrodisiac is Brandy's Control, on which she pours her wiser heart into an intoxicating mix of club bangers, juicy mid-tempo grooves and sexy slow jams.
After three multiplatinum albums, a hit movie, nine Grammys and an Oscar, what could Eminem possibly do for an Encore? Roll up his sleeves, grab the mike and go back to being the most provocative rapper on the planet While unleashing his verbal attacks on everyone from President Bush to Michael Jackson, he also takes a hard look at himself on introspective tracks that tellingly reveal who the real Slim Shady is.
Van Hunt
Van Hunt
In a year in which Prince regained his royal stride, Hunt stepped up as heir apparent to the Purple One's throne. On his superfly debut, the singer-songwriter and multi-instrumentalist smoothly splices breezy pop ("Dust"), dirty funk ("Hello, Goodbye"), psychedelic soul ("Hold My Hand"), Latin jazz ("Her December"), you name it—all without messing up his perfectly cocked pimp-daddy hat.
Talib Kweli
The Beautiful Struggle
His name means "student of truth" in Arabic, and on his stellar second solo outing this emcee, one of hip-hop's headiest lyricists, imparts his street knowledge with an old-school keep-it-realness that is both anti-gangsta and anti-bling.
Jill Scott
Beautifully Human: Words and Sounds Vol. 2
On her stunning sophomore studio CD, this neo-soul sister shows us what it means to be "beautifully human." Whether she's rhapsodizing about a "Family Reunion" or relating the tragic story of a drug dealer named "Rasool," Scott is one down-to-earth diva with a poet's heart and a powerhouse voice.
Jamie Cullum
Of all the young saloon singers to emerge in Norah Jones's Grammy-sweeping wake, this cool cabaret cat with the soul-kissed vocals was the one most worth getting jazzed about. The 25-year-old British piano man's U.S. debut crackles with jazz-pop originals and eclectic covers ranging from Cole Porter to Radiohead.
Gretchen Wilson
Here for the Party
Putting a musical spin on the "Redneck Woman," this earthy Illinoisan brings a bluesy new party-girl sensibility to Nashville. She and fellow female newcomers Julie Roberts and Katrina Elam provide some vivacious grace notes in the country-music year.
Find the Hidden Message
Their lyrics were revealing, but who were these pop stars singing about?
"Feeling angry/ But you don't know why/ Why don't you look me in the eye?/ You want my friends/ You want my clothes/ You're one of those"
BEST GUESS: She's referring to her feud with Lindsay Lohan
"I was 6 years old, when my parents went away/ I was stuck inside, a broken life, I couldn't wish away/ She was beautiful, she had everything and more/ My escape was hiding out, running for the door"
—ASHLEE SIMPSON on sis Jessica in "SHADOW"
"This is by far the hardest thing I think I've ever had to do/To tell you, the woman I love/ That I'm having a baby by a woman that I barely even know"
BEST GUESS: He's owning up to cheating on ex-girlfriend Chilli
"Are your secrets where you left them?/ 'Cause now your ghosts are mine as well/ I think it's time I met them and I think it's time you tell/ And you should have told me when you met me all these things I should know"
BEST GUESS: She's alluding to husband Gavin Rossdale's love child
"I always had the feelin'/ That baby boy was cheatin'/ I kept tellin' myself/ 'If you ain't happy Bran just leave him'/ I wasn't raised to quit/But what do you gain/ If you feel incomplete within?"
—BRANDY on her split with Robert Smith in "WHO I AM"
More in the Archive
Today's Photos
September 24, 2016
Ariana Grande, Plus Britney Spears, Lady Gaga, David Beckham and More!
Treat Yourself! 4 Preview Issues
The most buzzed about stars this minute!


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SimCity increases stability and considers 'offline mode' in the future
SimCity has updated its blog and has stated that its making good progress in restoring stability to its servers. Lucy Bradshaw, the General Manager of EA's Maxis Label, stated that tens of thousands of new players are logging into SimCity everyday. SimCity's launch on March 5th was admittedly a huge failure. The always-on DRM and the server issues with the game resulted in a majority of players being unable to login, download the game, or even unlock their game.


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American architect Neil Denari has designed HL23, an apartment building for New York. More »
American architect Neil Denari has designed HL23, an apartment building for New York. More »
Photographer Teun van den Dries has sent us these photos of Maff Apartment, a bed and breakfast attic flat by Queeste Architecten in the Hague, the Netherlands. More »
Austrian designer Robert Stadler has designed Corso, a new restaurant on Avenue Trudaine in Paris. More »
Stockholm Design Week: French designer Marc Sadler created the Fibre Evolution installation at the Input Interiör showroom in Stockholm earlier this month. More »
Architects Broadway Malyan have completed the renovation of Rossio railway station in Lisbon, Portugal. More »
Stockholm Design Week: Swedish designers Per Emanuelsson and Bastian Bischoff exhibited the Surveillance Light lamp at Stockholm Furniture Fair earlier this month. More »
Design Indaba 08: the first sand-bag house designed by Cape Town architects MMA is taking shape (see earlier post). More »
Towel With Further Options by Japanese designers NIIMI is designed to be recycled as a bath-mat and a cleaning cloth as it wears out. More »
Steven Holl Architects has been commissioned to build a complex of five linked towers surrounding a public plaza in Chengdu, China. More »
Design Indaba 08: South African industrial design firm ...XYZ has relaunched its condom applicator with new packaging and a new brand name, 4:Secs. Update: this project is included in Dezeen Book of Ideas, which is on sale now for £12. More »
Here are images of the student rooms and circulation at Melon District in Barcelona by architect Gus Wüstemann (see previous story). More »
Swiss architect Gus Wüstemann has completed the interiors of Melon District, a student residence in Barcelona (see also the following story). More »
British architect Jonathan Tuckey has designed a timber-clad extension to a 19th century Baptist chapel in Wiltshire, England, as part of the building's conversion into a residential property. More »
Japanese designer Nosigner has created an installation using discarded flourescent tubes at the Theory Luxe fashion store in the Omotesando Hills development in Tokyo. More »
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Warm up with a hot cup of cocoa!
This Starlight Clock Hot Chocolate Drink Mix features a star filled background with a midnight approaching clock. Personalize the 2 inch white sticker on this Time Hot Chocolate Drink Mix with your own event information. Each single packet of hot cocoa drink mix makes up 6 oz of pure chocolate bliss. Add a Personalized Starlight Clock Hot Cocoa Drink Mix to gift bags or scatter on tabletops for excellent take-home favors for each of your guests! Assembly required.
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The article by Wissow et al1 in the May issue of the ARCHIVES focused on how ethnicity and gender barriers in disclosing psychosocial information dissipate with longitudinal care, adding important information to the literature in this area. What I found noticeably absent from the article were references to the pediatrician who deserves credit for putting doctor-patient communication research on the map in pediatrics, namely, Barbara Korsch.2- 5 She videotaped resident interviews with parents/patients, used interaction analysis to determine what was occurring in those sessions, and assessed parent satisfaction by conducting exit interviews. Korsch's seminal work is, unfortunately, largely unknown to many of today's trainees, yet her research helped to frame 3 questions that every pediatrician should be asking his or her patients or parents, ie, "Why did you bring your child to the office today?" "What concerns you most about your child?" and "Why does that concern you?" These questions have been shown to demonstrate the willingness of the busy physician to listen to what really is most concerning to the patient or parent for that visit. I know that space limits the number of references and text that authors can use in any journal publication. However, too often I worry that we lose a sense of history when we publish contemporary research and don't cite early pioneers. Here's a vote for making links to those who trailblazed in the past.
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Being technically impressive doesn't necessarily mean the game is graphically impressive, however. WRC isn't a bad looking game by any stretch of the imagination, but at this stage in development it's looking a little rough around the edges. Even if the cars looked fantastic, there was a bit of texture pop in and other graphical blunders. Although there's a lot of polish still to be applied before the game's release in October, I very much doubt it'll be able to compete with the likes of Forza or Gran Turismo purely on a graphical front.
Graphics, as we must constantly remind ourselves, are not everything. For the racing connoisseur who is simply concerned with the car and how it handles on the track, WRC offers a wealth of customisation features. You can tweak just about every attribute you could imagine, and perfecting the car's set up will have obsessive racing fans entertained for hours.
One of the things Milestone has been keen to stress is the notion that the track is a character. Not only that, it's your enemy. In rally, it's you against the track, and a lot of work has gone into bringing it to life. On location, the team has amassed a whopping 27,000 photos, allowing them to put together some of the most accurate and faithfully recreated rally tracks to date. Perhaps most impressive are the game's eight different surface types, including tarmac, gravel, snow and mud, which themselves can react differently depending on weather conditions and such. It was immediately noticeable when the surface state changed; I had to adjust my driving accordingly to save myself from a date with a barrier.
As well as reacting to the properties of the track, players have to compensate for any damage their car may have suffered. If you've hit a barrier and smashed the left wheel of your car, it will veer uncontrollably to the left, and you'll have to adjust your steering accordingly. It's at these late stages in the rally, when your car's all battered and bruised, that your driving skills will really be put to the test. The handling really is the star of WRC.
Milestone is no stranger to the racing genre, and all those years of experience with Moto GP, SBK and Evolution GT have culminated in FIA World Rally Championship. "It's the definitive rally experience" says Paglianti, whose passion for the game was smeared across his face as he spoke to me. I won't pretend that I'm particularly enthused by rally racing as a sport, but the majority of the fans who attended the event were buzzing with excitement as they threw their cars round the track. If you're into rally, and miss the real rally experience that DiRT has forgotten about, this is a game you're going to want to pay attention to.
WRC FIA World Rally Championship is available for Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and PC on October 8.


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Doctor insights on:
Baby Swollen Testicle
My baby seems to have one swollen testicle. What should I do?
See ur dr: This should always be checked out especially if it red and seems to hurt immediately. How ever the most like ly cause if it is not hurting or red is a hydrocele. It is seen quite frequently a collection of fluid around testicle it is benign might grow a little before it goes away usually gone by 1 yo or sooner. Nothing to worry about. ...Read more
Testicles (Definition)
The testicles are the two oval male gonads, or reproductive glands, located in the scrotum. The seminiferous tubules of the testis are the site of spermatogenesis and its leydig cells secrete testosterone. The term testicles is synonymous with testes or gonads. The singular form is ...Read more
One testicle of my 3 weeksyoung baby got swollen and bigger then return back to same size as the other after 2 days. What caused it and is it normal?
Patent processus: Could have been an infection (unlikely), vs transient torsion vs communicating hydroceole. Likely favors the latter. May need surgical intervention if recurs. Your baby should be evaluated by a pediatric Urologist. ...Read more
My testicle is swollen (painless). Should I be,worried?
Here are some...: Many laypersons refer hydrocele (fluid-filled sac) as painless testicle, but occasionally, few men may self palpate hard nodular testicle inside the sac, which indeed is testicular tumor. Fortunately, ultrasound exam of the sac will differentiate both and clear confusion. How to get these done right? Follow instructions in http://formefirst.com/eNewsletter06.html. Best wishes... ...Read more
Is, it normal that my testicle got bigger and swollen all of a sudden?
Get a testicular us: Depending on r age especially if under 40 years old need to get a testicular ultrasound to rule out a testicular tumor. ...Read more
I sit on my testicle while I was working out , now it's swollen, hard and very painful , what is it ?
Painfull testicle: Sounds like traumatic irritation to the testicle. Try fluids, NSAID, elevating (tight underwear or supporter), also use cool compress. If problem persists, see a urologist or your physician. ...Read moreSee 1 more doctor answer
I had a swollen testicle years back i got treated but since that I have never seen it again, what could be the problem or did lose my testicle?
Testis atrophy: You likely had testis torsion which was mistaken for epididymitis. Probably had sudden onset of pain which remained swollen ; painful for a few days. Twisted spermatic blood vessels cut off testicular blood supply ; thus could not survive. Body gradually absorbed testicular tissue. Untreated testis torsion unfortunately leads to testicular atrophy. My sympathies. ...Read moreSee 1 more doctor answer
My testicle cords seem as if they are swollen. What would you recommend?
See your doctor: See a doctor right away. You may have inflammation or infection of the epididymis or spermatic cords. Common causes are recent overuse and stds, the latter of which can cause possibly sterility. ...Read moreSee 1 more doctor answer
Why is my husbands left testicle swollen and soar?
Many causes.: Swelling of the testicle itself can be caused by infection or by the appearance of cancer. Swelling of the scrotum, which houses the testicles, is much more common. Fluid can build up around the testicle, such as in a hydrocele or spermatocele. Dilated blood vessels called varicoceles can also enlarge the scrotum. If you have this problem, please see your physician or urologist for an examination. ...Read more
'i have swollen right testicle but there is no pain. Not sure what''s wrong but what should I do?'
Posible hydrocele: This is a fluid sac around testicle. However painless testicular swelling or lump must be considered possible cancer until proven otherwise. Scrotal ultrasound will provide the answer. Your local urologist can advise, diagnose and treat any testicular swelling. ...Read moreSee 1 more doctor answer
Husband's left testicle is swollen with no pain. Has been like that for over a week.
Likely a hydrocele: Hydrocele is a collection of fluid around testicle often thought 2B enlargement of testicle itself. Almost always benign, however is sometimes associated with testis tumor. Thus consultation with urologist + scrotal ultrasound is advised ...Read more
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CNBC: By the time viewers watch this it would have been almost exactly 2 months to the day that you assumed power. Since then it's been quite apparent that there is more stability in Thailand. We flew in, Suvarnabhumi was fine, no problem. Streets are much quieter, government house where we are now is a lot calmer as well. You have a new government led by yourself. The cabinet positions much more, more technocrats included. Foreign investors like that a lot. But the big question that they're still left wondering is, and bluntly I have to ask - are you really in charge? Because there are perceptions that you owe for example the military, the invisible hand, the power brokers behind this. That you owe the opposition because key factions switched to allow you to gain a majority. And this is important because people are left wondering especially foreign investors - the policies you come up with, are they yours, are they watered down compromises, and are they the right policies?
THAI PM: I think the first thing is that you're right. Stability is the first thing we have to aim at, without which obviously nothing can proceed. And we can't make any progress. And over the last month and a half, or 2 months I think we have made great progress. Helped particularly by the by-election results in early January. So if you're talking about that, I owe most to the electorate for voting in a sense of confidence in the government and sending a very strong signal that the Thai people want the country to move ahead, to move beyond the divisions and conflict that we've seen last year. The policies, there are a number of issues and people forever debate about whether they're the right policies. I think all the governments are now facing that. But they are definitely asked. And am I getting things done? Well I think I've set clear agenda right at the start - apart from achieving greater political stability, I mentioned 2 things. The first is that we have to move very swiftly with the economic stimulus package and second we have to carry out our commitments as chair of asean. Well the last month we've pushed through the economic package approved by the cabinet and more significantly now the mid-year budget has passed the lower house, expected to pass the senate next week. And also all the agreements concerning Asean have also been approved by joint seating of parliament. So you know we've set our agenda, we're on target. We've achieved what we've set out to do in the first couple of months.
CNBC: Let's talk about the economy. Because saving the economy, a lot of outside observers believe is your job. Number one this will make or break your administration. if growth goes below or sinks to 1% that could be it. This is what I'm hearing at least. But the problem is, this is a global crisis, 65% of Thailand's economy is exports. How much can you really do?
THAI PM: I think there is fairly good understanding among the Thai people. They know that this problem is a direct result of the financial crisis that's happening elsewhere. So in that sense I think they are willing to assess the government's performance with that in mind. Obviously they know that the export sector, the tourism sector is badly hit. And we've seen the numbers in the last quarter of last year and it's clear that there's been a strong contraction in those sectors. Which meant of course that GDP for the last quarter of last year is around minus 3%.
CNBC: Is it going to be negative first quarter of this year as well?
THAI PM: I believe that that is a very good chance, that in the first quarter you will continue to see that effect
CNBC: And Thailand will technically be in recession then?
THAI PM: That's right. That is why we have to move very swiftly with the stimulus package in the hope that the money gets disbursed from March onwards so that we begin to turn things around from second quarter onwards. I think, I think people understand that. In the sense that they are more understanding of the problems that it's not exactly something we can totally control. Having said that there is a lot we can do, domestically of course in terms of keeping up demand and also playing our role as far as the international economic order is concerned. And I've been active not just pushing through all the packages here but also doing my bit abroad.
CNBC: You've been here before, when the last democratic administration was in power in 01 you also inherited a pretty awful economy. On top of that now you've got the chaos. 08 19 19 there's a little bit of irony here - because the democrats lost those elections to former prime minister thaksin's populist policies. Now you appear to be doing something very very similar, pump priming, fiscal spending, handing out money 58 U-S dollars to each deserving individual?
THAI PM: This is just a very old style, Keynesian policy which everybody is doing. I don't know of any country that is not pursuing this line. I don't know any school of thought that says we could be doing otherwise. all governments now need to pour public money in, to make sure there is job creation, to make sure that demand is kept up. Now obviously there are differences in the details as to how that money's spent. And our target is clear. We want the money out as quickly as possible with as little leakage as possible. And also aimed at the most deserving people. So that's what we're doing. It's, I don't see it in terms of populism at all
CNBC: We've talked about, you've talked about the stimulus package, I know there're also some tax tweaks as well. What else, what more can or should be done what is in the works. What about privatization?
THAI PM: Well actually we have first of all plan b - our annual budget cycle begins in October. And what we've done in terms of mid-year budget has to be within the constraints of the law concerning how much, how big a deficit we can run. So if there is, if there are remaining problems, you know as we head into the maybe the third or fourth quarter this year, we are also negotiating for some external financing of some infrastructure or development projects as well. So that should there is a need, should there be a need for more stimulus, we could do that without actually breaching the legal limit concerning internal or domestic borrowing. But looking beyond that you mentioned privatization. Perhaps the market conditions and also the remaining state enterprises that we see in the hands of the government - there may be little room for that. But what is certainly possible and should be pursued are a number of public, private partnerships in terms of some key infrastructure projects and actually within this month we will be taking a look at that in a systematic way. Concerning our need to upgrade infrastructure anyway, in terms of the railways, in terms of telecommunications, and also water distribution projects to help the agricultural sector.
CNBC: Is it, is the focus more on so-called PPPs as opposed to state companies, privatizing them? Because there is the fear that in the downturn this is not a good time to do something like that, because of the potential job losses involved at a time when unemployment is rising and there is unrest outside and under the ppp-led government, state unions I think were very very against private, Thaksin's privatization plans.
THAI PM: Well I think the problem with previous privatization plans is that they hadn't really thought through the impact on public services as a whole. Too often the emphasis has been on the incoming revenues and also the financial conditions rather than looking at the sector of public service in general. And the reason why I think privatization needs to be pursued in a more careful manner is that you need a regulatory, a good regulatory framework in place which means of course amending the laws and so on. Which is why I think at the moment the sensible route is to look for possible partnerships with the private sector on a project to project basis.
CNBC: How real a concern is it for you, that there could be a what's been described as a coming storm there's a fellow named Walden bellow who's been around for a long time, a political economist who thinks that with this downturn, this recession there's going to be more not just unrest, protests but possibly even revolution? For Thailand I mean the unemployment numbers are going up. Is, could this feed more political instability?
THAI PM: It's one of the main points I that I made when I made my trip to the world economic forum, that the developed countries - I know they have their own financial problems to deal with and that's the top of their mind. But it's important to recognize that a lot of developing and emerging economies, through no fault of their own are now being affected rather badly especially those very open economies. And what's important is that you don't forget - that unless there are corrections made in terms of making sure that capital, finance, continue to flow. And also that trade flows and investment flows are sustained. There is a real possibility of unrest because of social impact of such a crisis. I think we've been fortunate, and we continue to be fortunate in that I think the most threatening factor would be food shortage. But that's where Thailand is fortunate because we have been a food exporting country and we'll continue to be a food exporting country.
CNBC: I understand that some unemployment benefits to people are conditioned on them returning to their provinces, to their villages. Meaning you get the money only if you go home as opposed to stay in the urban areas in the city?
THAI PM: We have a fairly diverse scheme. What we want to make sure is that when people become unemployed and governments try to run training programmes, we don't want sort of generic training programs after which you know these people cannot find jobs. So what we want to do is to make sure that the training actually provides the skills and already has clear targets about what people can do with these skills once they leave the training program. And one of the possibilities clearly is that we could use this as an opportunity to restructure our own economy rather than having big concentration in urban areas.
CNBC: Let's talk about Thailand now in a post-Bush the new Obama world. His secretary of state Hillary Clinton is on the way to Asia. Conspicuously to some people Thailand is not among the stops. There's a sense that because the itinerary included Indonesia, most populous Muslim nation in the world, at a time when u-s wants to reshape its own image in the Muslim world. There's a sense that places like that will take precedent, precedence over places like let's say Thailand where there is the perception there is military influence in government, that there is a too harsh a censorship to try and protect the monarchy.
THAI PM: I think we have to separate the issues. As far as the u-s is concerned, I think our bilateral relations have been very strong throughout and continue to be very strong. Close and cordial. And I'm sure there'll be appropriate occasions where we could strengthen those ties in terms of exchanges of visits. I believe that as chair of Asean and throughout the year there'll be many more multi-lateral meetings and some of which the u-s will be involved. I think Indonesia is a major economy, it's part of the g20 so clearly there has to be engagement from the economies like the u-s. I don't think that the issue of the military or the laws to protect the monarchy is part of this equation concerning how much the u-s will engage us. I certainly believe that we are still one of the more liberal regimes in the region. And I think I've made very clear and I've proved the last couple of months that those concerns about the military influence or any reactionary trends are now actually being dealt with. And I think that certainly by the middle of the year this will be even clearer.
CNBC: You mentioned very close to cordial ties but the fact is a lot of analysts think that at least your economic ties are at a low, the u-s t-r the u-s trade representative has put Taiwan on its most watched list because of alleged intellectual property rights violations. This was after Thailand of course started making generic drugs that big u-s pharmaceuticals make including drugs for cancer, for HIV, for aids. This seems to have pitched both sides head to head, and then there's the FTA which has not been resolved.
THAI PM: Well the intellectual property rights issue is being tackled. I now chair a special committee which is recently set up in my government to enforce the law concerning intellectual property rights violation and actually had a very good dialogue with the American chamber of commerce. Actually linking back to the u-s chamber of commerce via video-conferencing. So I don't think that there are tensions of any kind in terms of our economic relations. Now obviously throughout the year, throughout the years Thailand has diversified our markets considerably. So in that sense yes, the u-s now accounts for much less in terms of our exports than previously. As far as the FTA is concerned, the ball is back in their court because they need to renew the special authorities that the president would have. I mean we stand ready to continue negotiations if they so wish.
CNBC: Let's move on and talk about the military, as it relates to the business and the economy. Countries like Indonesia for example have been struggling with this issue for many many years. Thailand's case - the last democratic administration khun chuan he rolled back I think the influence of the military considerably, getting them out of business, cutting budgets etcetera. Since the 2006 coup though it seems as though the military has been back on the ascendant. The military budgets are booming again, we see a lot more generals back on the boards of big companies in Thailand. I guess the question is, in terms of economic efficiency - guns and butter may not mix very well. Where do you stand on this?
THAI PM: My policy is the same as previous democrat administrations. We'd like to see professional armed forces and we recognize the problems that we've seen over the last 7 or 8 years. Obviously the coup happened as a reaction to a number of abuses that had taken place before and somehow the military obviously felt that the rule of law is breaking down. Obviously we have different views on that as a democratic politician I don't accept that as an excuse, but clearly the coup was a result of a number of developments. Rather negative developments concerning our political system. And as with all coups, once they happen there are a number of trends in terms of military influence. In business and also in government. But I think over the last after democratic elections there had also been a reversal of that trend. And the military I think have been very careful despite the big conflicts and tensions and problems in politics over the last year, not to overstep the limits of its role.
CNBC: They've been making headlines though with the rohingyas, with lese majeste as well and you've been quick to defend the military.
THAI PM: No, I need, I need to be fair to all sides. We have to enforce our law and at the same time I think the military has accepted my policy, that if there are any abuses of rights their people would have to be brought to account. They've made that an open policy so I think that clearly shows the acceptance of democratic values. For the budget I think you need to be fair. We've had less increase over the last decade than a lot of our neighbors concerning the military budget in absolute terms and also as proportion of gdp. And yet you don't seem to be saying that our neighboring countries are allowing military influence in politics.
CNBC: Let's talk a little bit more about neighboring countries then. Asean the summit, originally Bangkok then moved to chiangmai and now in hua hin at the end of this month. The key point here is there's finally the Asean charter the so called constitution which gives it I guess a legal identity. Probably more importantly is this whole plan to create a European style economic bloc, integration, level playing field all across. At a time like this, downturn and recession is this idea likely to lose momentum? Because the perception is during times of hardship countries tend to pull back, to be protectionist. At least that's the worry.
THAI PM: Well one of the messages that I hope that Asean will send out after the summit is that that will not happen. That we recognize that when there are economic difficulties and there is always temptation to close in or resort to protectionism. In the end that kind of response can only hurt everybody. And one of the commitments I would like to see certainly after the summit is that for our Asean region that will not happen. We will keep trade flows open and we'll push ahead with a number of co-operation. You know not in terms of just trade liberalization but we'll be tackling the issue of food and energy security together.
CNBC: You're a trained economist. How do you get over this fundamental problem though - the Asean 10 hugely despaired levels of economic development, one.
And varying - would probably be the most diplomatic way of putting it - political systems as well and you expect them to come together. It's uh, sounds like it would be a much greater challenge then what we've seen happen in Europe.
THAI PM: It is, and I think the trick is to identify common interests. And I'm sure that all the countries whatever the economic and political differences all aspire to have peace and prosperity. We should identify areas where there are win-win situations and that's what we do. While at the same time recognize our differences. And also have mechanisms to reduce those differences. In Asean for instance, there is this integration program where we will help those members who perhaps are less ready to integrate their economies through a systems and co-operation programs.
CNBC: Very quickly, we're almost out of time here. This is also the question on everybody's minds - what's going on with the next elections?
THAI PM: At the moment the priority for us is to bring stability back to politics and also to make sure that our people can get thru this very difficult economic times. We need to have a stimulus package to create jobs and to be prepared for the worst as far as the global financial crisis is concerned. Taking the country to the ballot box now will probably disrupt all that not to mention the commitments we have as Asean chair. So I think the priorities are clear and I think the by-election results also says that this is the path that the people want us to take. For the future, I can't tell you. But as a politician in a parliamentary system you know early elections are possible but not for now. The priority is for our people to get through these difficult economic times.


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Today, on our 2009 Dodge Ram Pickup 2500, we'll be installing the Bestop EZFolding Tonneau Cover, part number B1623901.Now, with our tonneau cover ready to be installed, we'll first remove the sealprotection, which is the white stripping along the outer edge. Now, with that removed,we'll go ahead and set the tonneau cover in position. When setting it in position, we'llalign the long edge with the front rail nearest the cab, and the short edges will line upwith the side rails that extend to the rear. And then we'll go ahead and get underneaththe tonneau cover, rotate the clamp down, and slide it over to the side rail. Then we'llrotate it until we pick up any extra slack and lock it into the inner lip of the bed rail.Now we'll go ahead and repeat the same process on the opposite side.Now, with both front clamps secured, we'll go ahead and fold the cover out. Onceagain, we'll go ahead and repeat the same procedure of pulling the clamps down,sliding them out into the bedrail, rotating them until we take up any extra slack, andthen locking them into position.
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Archive for the 'Technology' Category
Seed Bubble Watch 1st Half 2012
Yes, it's time for another edition of "Seed Bubble Watch". The subtitle for this round is, "Still Waiting to Inflate."
For notes on sources and methods, see my previous posts in the series here, here, and here. Current spreadsheet is here. Now to the money charts:
The first chart shows a slight dip back towards 2009 and 2010 levels. However, I think this is an artifact of seasonality in angel investing. Comparing 1H2012 to 1H2011 for the angel data, there's actually an increase of 7% from a $6.9B annual rate to a $7.4B annual rate. It's just that 2H2011 had a $12.1B annual rate. I know of nothing specific that happened in the second half of last year to account for a spike, so my guess is that angel activity is just generally higher July through December. My prediction is that when the full year 2012 numbers come out in April 2013, we'll see 2012 angel investing at slightly over $10B.
Reported VC seed stage investing continues to drop (with my standard caveat that what VC's call "seed" is probably different from angels). But it was made up for by increases in the size of super angel funds. The obvious explanation is that super angels are taking over part of the VC seed function. I think there's more to it than that, but substitution and specialization are certainly part of the story.
Recall that I aggressively assume super angels deploy all their dollars in one year, to make my synthesized investment metric maximally sensitive to detecting bubbles. It looks like this assumption may not be too far out of line with reality. Aydin Senkut's Felicis Ventures is raising a $71M fund after a $40M fund in 2010. Mike Maples' Floodgate is raising $75M after $70M in 2010. Lerer Ventures is raising $30M after $25M in 2011. Ron Conway's SV Angel is raising $40M after $28M in 2011. Chris Sacca's Lowercase Capital is raising $65M after $28M in 2010. And finally, our big winner is Thrive Capital, raising $150M ($147M of which was already in the door as of 9/6/2012) after $40M in 2011. Given IA Ventures' big raise noted in our last installment, we've got two NYC new media funds blowing up. And it seems like a lot of the leading funds are on a 1-2 year cycle.
I think this data supports my previous assertions that there is no general seed bubble in the US. However, it certainly seems plausible that Silicon Valley and NYC could have local bubbles given the increasing dollars going into super angel funds in those areas and anecdotal reports of high valuations. But my ad hoc conversations with people at the super angels indicate they are investing in a wide variety of locations. It's possible that, at the margin, angels and super angels are choosing to invest outside of Silicon Valley and NYC often enough that we've reached an equilibrium.
For the rest of 2012 and all of 2013, I think the big driver will be the overall economy. GDP growth was only 1.3% in the 2nd quarter and 2.0% in the 1st quarter. The 20-year average is 2.5%. So I don't expect a big increase in seed funding until we at least get above that rate.
Valuing Seed Stage Startups
One of the questions I most frequently answer about RSCM is how we value seed stage startups. Apparently, being not only willing, but eager to set equity valuations sets us apart from the vast majority of investors. It's also the aspect of our approach that I'm most proud of intellectually. Developing the rest of our process was mostly a matter of basic data analysis and applying existing research. But the core of our valuation system rests on a real (though modest) insight.
We've finally accumulated enough real-world experience with our valuation approach that I feel comfortable publicly discussing it. Now, I'm not going to give out the formula. Partly, this is to preserve some semblance of unique competitive advantage. But it's also for practical reasons:
- Our precise formula is tuned for our specific investment theses, which are based on our larger analysis of exit markets, technology dynamics, and diversification requirements.
- The current version of the formula doesn't communicate just how adaptable the fundamental concept is (and we do in fact adjust it as we learn).
- There's a lot of truth in the wisdom about teaching a man to fish rather than giving him a fish.
Instead, I'm going to discuss how we constructed the formula. Then you can borrow whatever aspects of our approach you think are valid (if any) and build your own version if you like.
The first part of our modest insight was to face the fact that, at the seed stage, most of the value is option value not enterprise value. Any approach based on trying to work backwards from some hypothetical future enterprise value will be either incredibly expensive or little more than a guess. But how do you measure a startup's option value from a practical standpoint?
The second part of our modest insight was to ask, "Is there anyone who has a big stake in accurately comparing the unknown option value to some other known dollar value?" The answer was obvious once we formulated the question: the founders. If the option value of their ownership stake were dramatically less, on a risk-adjusted basis, than what they could earn working for someone else, they probably wouldn't be doing the startup. Essentially, we used the old economist's trick of "revealed preference".
We knew there could be all sorts of confounding factors. But there might be a robust relationship between founders' fair market salaries and their valuation. So we tested the hypothesis. We looked at a bunch of then current seed-stage equity deals where we knew people on the founder or investor side, or the valuation was otherwise available. We then reviewed the founders' LinkedIn profiles or bios to estimate their salaries.
What we found is that equity valuations for our chosen segment of the market tended to range from 2x to 4x the aggregate annual salary of the founders. The outliers seemed to be ones that either (a) had an unusual amount of "traction", (b) came out of a premier incubator, or (c) were located in the Bay Area. Once we controlled for these factors, the 2x to 4x multiple was even more consistent.
Now, the concept of a valuation multiple is pretty common. In the public markets, equity analysts and fund managers often use the price-to-earnings ratio. For later stage startups, venture capitalists and investment bankers often use the revenue multiple. Using a multiple as a rule-of-thumb allows people to:
- Compare different sectors, e.g., the P/E ratios in technology are higher than in retail.
- Compare specific companies to a benchmark, e.g., company X appears undervalued.
- Set valuations, e.g., for IPOs or acquisitions.
Obviously, 2x to 4x is a big range. The next step was to figure out what drives the variance. Here, we relied on the research nicely summarized in Sections 3.2-3.6 of Hastie and Dawes' Rational Choice in an Uncertain World. In high-complexity, high-uncertainty environments, experts are pretty bad at making overall judgements. But they are pretty good at identifying the key variables. So if all you do is poll experts on the important variables and create a consensus checklist, you will actually outperform the experts. The explanation for this apparent paradox is that the human brain has trouble consistently combining multiple factors and ignoring irrelevant information (such as whether the investor personally likes the founders) when making abstract judgements.
So that's what we did. We asked highly experienced angels and VCs what founder characteristics are most important at the seed stage. (We focused on the founders because we had already determined that predicting the success of ideas this early was hopeless.) The most commonly mentioned factors fell into the general categories you'd expect: entrepreneurial experience, management experience, and technical expertise. Going to a good undergraduate or graduate program were also somewhat important. Our experts further pointed out that making initial progress on the product or the business was partly a reflection on the founders' competence as well as the viability of the idea.
We created a checklist of points in these categories and simply scaled the valuation multiple from 2x to 4x based on the number of points. Then we tested our formula against deals that were actually in progress, predicting the valuation and comparing this prediction to the actual offer. This initial version performed pretty well. We made some enhancements to take into account location, incubator attendance, and the enterprise value of progress, then tested again. This updated version performed very well. Finally, we used our formula to actually make our own investments. The acceptance rate from founders was high and other investors seemed to think we got good deals.
Is our formula perfect? Far from it. Is it even good? Truthfully, I don't know. I don't even know what "good" would mean in the abstract. Our formula certainly seems far more consistent and much faster than what other investors do at the seed stage. Moreover, it allows us to quickly evaluate deal flow sources to identify opportunities for systematically investing in reasonably valued startups. These characteristics certainly make it very useful.
I'm pretty confident other investors could use the same general process to develop their own formulas, applicable to the particular categories of startups they focus on—as long as these categories are ones where the startups haven't achieved a clear product-market fit. Past that point, enterprise value becomes much more relevant and amenable to analysis, so I'm not sure the price-to-salary multiple would be as useful.
More Angel Investing Returns
According to our Web statistics, my post on Angel Investing Returns was pretty popular, so I thought I'd dive a little deeper into the process of extracting information from this data set. At the end of the last post, I hinted that there might be some value in, "…analyzing subsets of the AIPP data…" Why would you want to do this? To test hypotheses about angel investing.
Now, you must be careful here. You should always construct your hypotheses before looking at the data. Otherwise, it's hard to know if this particular data is confirming your hypothesis or if you molded your hypothesis to fit this particular data. You already have the challenge of assuming that past results will predict future results. Don't add to this burden by opening yourself to charges of "data mining".
I can go ahead and play with this data all I want. I already used it to "backtest" RSCM's investment strategy. We developed it by reading research papers, analyzing other data sources, and running investment simulations. When we found the AIPP download page, it was like Christmas: a chance to test our model against new data. So I already took my shot. But if you're thinking about using the AIPP data in a serious way, you might want to stop reading unless you've written your hypotheses down already. As they say, "Spoiler alert."
But if you're just curious, you might find my three example hypothesis tests interesting. They're all based loosely on questions that arose while doing research for RSCM.
Hypothesis 1: Follow On Investments Don't Improve Returns
It's an article of faith in the angel and VC community that you should "double down on your winners" by making follow on investments in companies that are doing well. However, basic portfolio and game theory made me skeptical. If early stage companies are riskier, they should have higher returns. Investing in later stages just mixes higher returns with lower returns, reducing the average. Now, some people think they have inside information that allows them to make better follow-on decisions and outperform the later stage average. Of course, other investors know this too. So if you follow on in some companies but not others, they will take it as a signal that the others are losers. I don't think an active angel investor could sustain much of an advantage for long.
But let's see what the AIPP data says. I took the Excel file from my last post and simply blanked out all the records with any follow on investment entries. The resulting file with 330 records is here. The IRR was 62%, the payout multiple was 3.2x, and the hold time was 3.4 years. That's a huge edge over 30% and 2.4x!
Now, let's not get too excited here. There's a difference between deals where there was no follow on and deals where an investor was using a no-follow-on strategy. We don't know why an AIPP deal didn't have any follow on. It could be that the company was so successful it didn't need more money. Of course, the fact that this screen still yields 330 out of 452 records argues somewhat against a very specific sample bias, but there could easily be more subtle issues.
Given the magnitude of the difference, I do think we can safely say that the conventional wisdom doesn't hold up. You don't need to do follow on. However, without data on investor strategies, there's still some room for interpretation on whether a no-follow-on strategy actually improves returns.
Hypothesis 2: Small Investments Have Better Returns than Large Ones
Another common VC mantra is that you should "put a lot of money to work" in each investment. To me, this strategy seems more like a way to reduce transaction costs than improve outcomes, which is fine, but the distinction is important. Smaller investments probably occur earlier so they should be higher risk and thus higher return. Also, if everyone is trying to get into the larger deals, smaller investments may be less competitive and thus offer greater returns.
I chose $300K as the dividing line between small and large investments, primarily because that was our original forecast of average investment for RSCM (BTW, we have revised this estimate downward based on recent trends in startup costs and valuations). The Excel file with 399 records of "small" investments is here. The IRR was 39% and the payout multiple was 4.0x. Again, a huge edge over the entire sample! Interestingly, less of an edge in IRR but more of an edge in multiple than the no-follow-on test. But smaller investments may take longer to pay out if they are also earlier. IRR really penalizes hold time.
Interesting side note. When I backtested the RSCM strategy, I keyed on investment "stage" as the indicator of risky early investments. Seeing as how this was the stated definition of "stage", I thought I was safe. Unfortunately, it turned out that almost 60% of the records had no entry for "stage". Also, many of the records that did have entries were strange. A set of 2002 "seed" investments in one software company for over $2.5M? A 2003 "late growth" investment in a software company of only $50K? My guess is that the definition wasn't clear enough to investors filling out the survey. But I had committed to my hypothesis already and went ahead with the backtest as specified. Oh well, live and learn.
Hypothesis 3: Post-Crash Returns Are No Different than Pre-Crash Returns
As you probably remember, there was a bit of a bubble in technology startups that popped at the beginning of 2001. You might think this bubble would make angel investments from 2001 on worse. However, my guess was that returns wouldn't break that cleanly. Sure, many 1998 and some 1999 investments might have done very well. But other 1999 and most 2000 investments probably got caught in the crash. Conversely, if you invested in 2001 and 2002 when everybody else was hunkered down, you could have picked up some real bargains.
The Excel file with 168 records of investments from 2001 and later is here. 23% IRR and 1.7x payout multiple. Ouch! Was I finally wrong? Maybe. Maybe not. The first problem is that there are only 168 records. The sample may be too small. But I think the real issue is that the dataset "cut off" many of the successful post-bubble investments because it ends in 2007.
To test this explanation, I examined the original AIPP data file. I filtered it to include only investment records that had an investment date and where time didn't run backwards. That file is here. It contains 304 records of investments before 2001 and 344 records of investments in 2001 or later. My sample of exited investments contains 284 records from before 2001 and 168 records from 2001 or later. So 93% of the earlier investments have corresponding exit records and 49% of the later ones do. Note that the AIPP data includes bankruptcies as exits.
So I think we have an explanation. About half of the later investments hadn't run their course yet. Because successes take longer than failures, this sample over-represents failures. I wish I had thought of that before I ran the test! But it would be disingenuous not to publish the results now.
So I think we've answered some interesting questions about angel investing. More important, the process demonstrates why we need to collect much more data in this area. According to the Center for Venture Research, there are about 50K angel investments per year in the US. The AIPP data set has under 500 exited investments covering a decades long span. We could do much more hypothesis testing, with several iterations of refinements, if we had a larger sample.
Angel Investing Returns
In my work for RSCM, one of the key questions is, "What is the return of angel investing?" There's some general survey data and a couple of angel groups publish their returns, but the only fine-grained public dataset I've seen comes from Rob Wiltbank of Willamette University and the Kauffman Foundation's Angel Investor Performance Project (AIPP).
In this paper, Wiltbank and Boeker calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) of AIPP investments as 27%, using the average payoff of 2.6x and the average hold time of 3.5 years. Now, the arithmetic is clearly wrong: 1.27^3.5 = 2.3. The correctly calculated IRR using this methodology is 31%. DeGenarro et al report (page 10) that this discrepancy is due to the fact that Wiltbank and Boeker did not weight investments appropriately.
In any case, the entire methodology of using average payoffs and hold times is somewhat iffy. When I read the paper, I immediately had flashbacks to my first engineering-economics class at Stanford. There was a mind-numbing problem set that beat into our skulls the fact that IRR calculations are extremely sensitive to the timing of cash outflows and inflows. I eventually got a Master's degree in that department, so loyally adopted IRR sensitivity as a pet peeve.
To calculate the IRR for the AIPP dataset, what we really want is to account for the year of every outflow and inflow. The first step is to get a clean dataset. I started by downloading the public AIPP data. I then followed a three step cleansing process:
- Select only those records that correspond to an exited investment.
- Delete all records that do not have both dates and amounts for the investment and the exit.
- Delete all records where time runs backwards (e.g., payout before investment).
The result was 452 records. A good-sized sample. The next step was to normalize all investments so they started in the year 2000. While not strictly necessary, it greatly simplified the mechanics of collating outflows and inflows by year. Finally, I had to interpolate dates in two types of cases:
- While the dataset includes the years of the first and second follow on investment, it does not include the year for the "followxinvest". For the affected 12 records, I interpolated by calculating the halfway point between the previous investment and the exit, rounding down. Note that this is a conservative assumption. Rounding down pushes the outflow associated with the investment earlier, which lowers the IRR.
- For 78 records, there are "midcash" entries where investors received some payout before the final exit. Unfortunately, there is no year associated with this payout. A conservative assumption pushes inflows later, so I assumed that the intermediate payout occurred either 0, 1, or 2 years before the final exit. I calculated the midpoint between the last investment and the final exit and rounded down. If it was more than 2 years before the final exit, I used 2 years.
With these steps completed, I simply added up outflows and inflows for every year and used the Excel IRR calculation.
The result was an IRR of 30% and a payoff multiple of 2.4x with an average hold time of 3.6 years.
Please note that this multiple is slightly lower than the 2.6x and the hold time is slightly higher than the 3.5 years Wiltbank and Boeker calculated for the entire dataset. Thus, my results do not depend on accidentally cherry-picking high-returning, quick-payout investments. If you want to double-check my work, you can download the Excel file here.
All in all, a satisfying result. Not too different from what's other people have published, but I feel much more confident in the number. For anyone analyzing subsets of the AIPP data, I've found that my Excel file makes it pretty easy to calculate those returns. Just zero out all records you don't care about by selecting the row and hitting the "Delete" key. The return results will update correctly. But don't do a "Delete Row". Then a bunch of the cell references will be broken. [Update 1/27/11: I've done a follow up post on using this method to test various hypotheses.]
Must Read Article on Farming
Some of you may recall my post Organic Farming Harms the Environment. As I wrote, one of the things that bugs me about organic proponents is that they act as if there are no tradeoffs. I don't understand much about farming, but I do understand something about how economic activity works. I presume that modern farming has responded to market pressure and evolved to optimize along many different dimensions. I'm pretty sure you can't magically improve along one dimension without sacrificing along another dimension.
Thus, I was not surprised to read this article (hat tip to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution) on modern farming by an honest to goodness family farmer. It is full of good examples of the tradeoffs I suspected were lurking. For instance, by using herbicides, farmers reduce the need to till, which is a major source of soil erosion. Hog crates and turkey cages may seem inhumane, but they prevent sows from killing piglets and turkeys dying from drowning. Crop rotations that decrease the need for synthetic fertilizer increase the amount of water needed to produce the desired crop.
Read the whole thing. It reinforced my confidence in the general rule of trying to avoid legislating solutions. Send pricing signals by allocating resource rights and taxing negative externalities. Then let the market do its optimization.
You Can't Pick Winners at the Seed Stage
[EDITED 05/08/2009: see here] The majority of people I've talked to like the idea of revolutionizing angel funding. Among the skeptical minority, there are several common objections. Perhaps the weakest is that individual angels can pick winners at the seed stage.
Now, those who make this objection usually don't state it that bluntly. They might say that investors need technical expertise to evaluate the feasibility of a technology, or industry expertise to evaluate the likelihood of demand materializing, or business expertise to evaluate the evaluate the plausibility of the revenue model. But whatever the detailed form of the assertion, it is predicated upon angels possessing specialized knowledge that allows them to reliably predict the future success of seed-stage companies in which they invest.
It should be no surprise to readers that I find this assertion hard to defend. Given the difficulty in principle of predicting the future state of a complex system given its initial state, one should produce very strong evidence to make such a claim and I haven't seen any from proponents of angels' abilities. Moreover, the general evidence of human's ability to predict these sorts of outcomes makes it unlikely for a person to have a significant degree of forecasting skill in this area.
Revolutionizing Angel Funding
[EDITED 05/08/2009: see here] We are finally ready to go semi-public with our revolutionary new angel funding concept! For the last year, Dave Lambert (the Tiltboy also known as Diceboy) and I have been working on an alternative mechanism for delivering seed funding to technology companies. [REDACTED 05/08/2009: see here].
Here's the summary. The market for seed capital is clearly broken. Most individual angels will only do about 1 deal per year, which means their portfolios lose money 40% of the time due to insufficient diversification. Even premier angel groups like the Band of Angels say they only do about 8 deals per year. Our math says you need to do 125 to achieve good diversification. On the other side of the table, only 14% of entrepreneurs who want angel funding will find it. Those that do will spend about 6 months looking for money instead of building their businesses.
This is a sorry state of affairs for a market where the overall annual return is 25%+. Here's a straightforward application of portfolio theory that can fix it. Have a large enough pool of money so one entity can do 125-200 deals per year. Then use an online screening process to give founders a yes or no in two weeks. Obviously, there are a ton of details beyond this, but those are what we've spent the last year figuring out. If you're curious, let me know in a comment here and I will contact you privately.[Links to files REDACTED 05/08/2009: see here].


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Annual symposium of the Collegium Carolinum in Bad Wiessee, Nov. 5-8, 2009
(Conceptual draft: Joachim von Puttkamer)
A state is nothing given a priori. When historical research considers the modern state either as a power structure having grown quite naturally (W. Reinhard), or as a cultural notion that is to a certain degree artificial (T. Mergel), this is applicable, perhaps even more so, to the socialist states between 1945 and 1989. In designating the GDR a "welfare dictatorship", K. Jarausch aptly emphasized the contrast between ideological pretence and repressive practice, highlighting at the same time an inherent struggle in state socialism between inner stability and self-destructive tendencies. Moreover, an approach aiming at a cultural history of political thought and political development emphasizes the fact that institutionalized state structures, their forms of symbolic representation, and the things people have come to expect from a state are all culturally determined. As a consequence, new questions arise concerning the history of East Central European socialist states.
The Collegium Carolinum symposium in November 2009 will study these questions employing an auxiliary framework of three problem complexes, the ultimate aim being to determine what is specific to East Central Europe and, in particular, to Czechoslovakia. Contributions casting comparative glances at the Soviet Union, South East Europe or Western Europe are equally welcome.
We expect papers dealing with the following questions:
i) The notion of the state, expectations of the public
How did the notion of what constitutes a state change in East Central Europe after 1945, and what specific expectations were addressed to the socialist state? Can one find out about these changes by reflecting upon the symbols states elect to represent them? How important for the acceptance of the socialist states and the stabilizing discourse going on within them was a notion whereby they understood themselves as explicitly national, as heirs to developments from the inter-war period?
How were public expectations toward the state enshrined in legal provisions?
Where did, in the framework of real socialism, the domain of the state find its limits? Possible areas of research here include the demarcation between the state and the communist party, with the latter's leading role usually laid down in constitutional law, but also the boundaries between the state and the mass organizations (which nominally at least belong to the societal sphere), the factories and businesses, or the cooperatives. What conclusions does this entail for the respective hypotheses of the "total" and the "totalitarian" state?
ii) Everyday encounters: the socialist state and its citizens
Where and how did state and citizens encounter each other in socialism? How did specific experiences with the state affect value systems and societal organization in East Central European societies, and to what extent did the socialist state augment or, on the other hand, erode the trust put into it by its citizens?
What was the origin of the idea of "anti-politics"? It was probably not by chance that this concept, signifying a complete and radical aloofness from the state, did evolve precisely in East Central Europe in an attempt to overcome the stark contrast between the ideological systems.
iii) Inner structures and mechanisms of the state
Were there specific patterns of institutional development of the administrative apparatus from the reconstruction effort after the wastage brought about by World War II, to Stalinism and, finally, to the stagnation of the 1980's?
Can one observe specific mechanisms in which the state functions, e.g. in the way clientele structures or corruption evolve? How were institutional conflicts treated, and to what extent can one consider a specific state as an homogeneous administrative machinery? Does the distinction, according to E. Fraenkel, between "normative state" and "prerogative state" fit the development of socialist statehood?
Please submit a brief abstract (1-2 pages) of your proposed paper, in either German or English, by March 30, 2009, to:
Collegium Carolinum
Attn.: Jana Osterkamp
Hochstr. 8
81669 München


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The Human Speaker would be a epic house party accessory, especially if you would like to be like Finn from Adventure Time.
The Human Speaker works much the same way, except the collar, rather than voice box, is the source of the vibrations. The pitch of the notes that emerge is determined by the collar, which, Wallenberg writes, can produce up to two notes at a time. Wearers can manipulate the sound with their mouths much as they would normally.
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