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What is in this article?:
- Federal court halts slaughterhouse openings
- Evidence lacking
Two companies expected to open horse slaugter facilities today have been dealyed again by a federal judge's order. Potential contamination of water from medications used in horses is one reason for the delay.
More About:
Evidence lacking
But attorneys representing USDA and the two processing facilities argued there was no evidence to support allegations that drugs administered to horses pose any environmental hazard and charged that the plaintiffs petitioned the court based upon moral opposition to horse slaughter issue and are trying to delay plant openings until Congress can take action.
Horse slaughter in the U.S. was halted in 2007 when Congress failed to fund USDA inspections. Prior to closure, a number of U.S. processing plants exported horse meat to countries where the practice of human consumption is both legal and common.
Owners of both the New Mexico and Iowa plants have said they plan to export horse meat and also to sell horse meat to zoos across the United States. Both are legal according to USDA officials. USDA granted a permit to Valley Meat Company in late June and followed by issuing another permit to the Iowa plant a few days later.
In New Mexico, State Attorney General Gary King and the New Mexico Environment Department declined a request to renew the plant's wastewater discharge permit last week. The move immediately drew a quick response from Roswell plant's attorney, Blair Dunn, who said the move will necessarily require the plant operator to transport waste to a remote facility, but will not stop the plant from opening.
President Barrack Obama cleared the way for USDA inspections of horse slaughter facilities earlier this year but has since expressed his opposition to the practice. The White House is currently active in asking Congress to outlaw commercial slaughtering of horses.
Lawyers for the defendants (USDA and the two processing plants) argued that both companies have invested sizeable capital to equip and prepare the plants to open as horse processing facilities. Armijo told plaintiffs one of the purposes of Monday's scheduled hearing was to determine how much money the plaintiffs would need to put up in advance to compensate the plant owners if the defendant's lost the lawsuit.
Dunn, representing Valley Meat Company, said after Friday's hearing he will ask the court for $10 million. Pat Rogers, representing Iowa's Responsible Transportation, reported the three young clients who started the company borrowed $1.5 million and also had another $1 million-plus committed by investors.
The issue of slaughtering horses has sparked an emotional debate nationwide about how to deal with the large number of abandoned or unwanted horses all across the country. It has divided animal rights groups, ranchers, Indian tribes and horse owners.
Those supporting the licensing and operation of horse slaughter facilities argue it is the only humane method of dealing with a growing problem. They note that since the ban on horse slaughter nearly seven years ago, the number of horses transported long distances under undesirable conditions to slaughterhouses in Mexico and Canada, often to face worse and inhumane conditions in slaughterhouses that are not regulated, have increased.
Both the Navajo Nation and representatives of the Yakama Indian Nation have testified that large numbers of wild horses have caused great damage on tribal lands. Attorneys for the Navajo said they estimate 75,000 wild horses running free on tribal property in Arizona have caused tremendous economic problems for the tribe. They say a large percentage of these horses are suffering from starvation and disease.
Also of interest:
Horse slaughterhouse issue heats up again
USDA grants inspections to horse slaughterhouse
House Appropriations nixes horse slaughter issue, approves USDA fundin…


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Economic Indicators Roundup (September 16, 2013)
Economic indicators are everywhere, so this is kind of like a dashboard that I like to follow. For each indicator, I will try to give you a brief description, the latest reading and what I understand to be its implications. For simplicity, I will assign each a rating of positive, neutral or negative. For the economic indicators, I will denote in each one's section how I decide which rating to give it. At the end, I assign an overall rating, but this is just to guide me in my takeaway of where things stand. It's not scientifically rigorous or anything.
- Positive – indicative of a healthy, growing economy.
- Neutral – indicative of a slow or no growth economy but not a contracting (recession) economy.
- Negative – indicative of a shrinking economy or recession.
(NOTE: For a "Quick 'n Easy" read, just review the labeled white boxes, then skip to my "Easy Take" summary at the end. You can review any charts/graphs afterward. I want to make sure no one is intimidated by the length of my posts, even though I'm trying to making them easy …)
Quick Summary
|Indicator (Click for details – only works if full article is open)
|Current Rating (change from previous roundup)
|ADS Business Conditions Index
|Positive (upgrade)
|Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index
|Daily Consumer Leading Indicators
|Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
|Employment Trends Index
|Chicago Fed National Activity Index
|Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index
|Easy Trends Dashboard (min/max -3 to +3)
|+2.61 = Clearly in a positive direction, with very few unconfirmed trends or off-trend readings
NOTE: You may be reading an outdated analysis. Please visit my latest economic indicators roundup.
Economic Indicator: ADS Business Conditions Index | POSITIVE (Upgrade)
Easy Intro to ADS Business Conditions Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: September 7, 2013
Quick 'n Easy
A combination of several key indicators of business conditions suggests, with high confidence, that at the end of June 2013 (most recent date for which there is data for all components of the index), conditions were a little worse than average (-0.254). As of about a week and a half ago, it suggested, with low confidence, that current conditions were barely above average (+0.107), historically speaking. The index suggests that economic activity has mostly remained below average since the start of 2013.
Easy Description: Combines several indicators together to describe current business conditions. A value above zero means that conditions are better than average, but below zero means worse than average.
Latest Readings:
September 7, 2013: Positive (+) 0.107 (includes weekly unemployment figures and maybe one other indicator)
One week prior: Positive (+) 0.083
One month prior: Negative (-) 0.102
One quarter prior: Negative (-) 0.172
The most recent date for which there is data for all components of the index is end of June 2013, when conditions were a little worse than average (-0.254).
Implications: After the wild roller coaster ride from late November 2012 (peak) to mid-January 2013 (valley), which was most likely a side-effect of the personal income being affected artificially by companies pulling their dividends ahead to give people beneficial tax treatment, we've generally seen below average conditions.
Preliminary data suggest that conditions turned positive around mid-late August, but it may be due to an artificially low number for initial jobless claims last week. I expect to see this index back in "neutral" territory again shortly, unless there has been some real improvement in the economy to go with the glitch in reporting jobless claims. But as more data begin to come in, the assessment may change. That's why it's important not to put too much stock into data to the right of the first vertical line, and even less importance on data to the right of the second line.
Additional Info: This index provides confident readings about the past when all of the indicators have been collected (everything to the left of the left-most vertical line). The readings in between the two vertical lines are somewhat less confident because they include some, but not all, of the indicators. And the latest reading always falls to the right of the right-most vertical line and includes only a couple of indicators.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will use the very latest reading and rate anything between zero and minus (-) 1.00 as "neutral" – anything above or below that will be rated "positive" or "negative" respectively.
Economic Indicator: Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index | POSITIVE
Easy Intro to Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: September 13, 2013
Quick 'n Easy
An index of financial stress improved from the previous week and still remains well inside what I'd consider "positive" territory. It is signaling that financial stress is so low that it is helping the economy right now.
Easy Description: Monitors the level of stress in the U.S. financial markets. Zero is normal, above zero is good and below zero is bad.
Latest Reading: Positive (+) 1.32 (versus a reading of +1.26 one week ago)
Implications: This measure of financial stress improved last week from the week before. As such, this index is still well above the threshold I'd consider for "positive" status. Bottom line: Right now, this index is signaling that financial stress is so low that it is helping the economy.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will rate anything between 0.50 and minus (-) 0.50 as "neutral" – anything above or below that will be rated "positive" or "negative" respectively.
Economic Indicator: Daily Consumer Leading Indicators (Consumer Metrics Institute) | NEGATIVE
Easy Intro to Daily Consumer Leading Indicators | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: September 13, 2013
Quick 'n Easy
Consumer spending makes up about 70% of our economy, so an indication of what this spending looks like down the road is key in predicting growth rates. The level of interest from consumers in making discretionary (non-essential) purchases in the near term, as captured by the Consumer Metrics Institute on September 13, was about 22% below a fairly normal level seen in the year 2005.
Easy Description: Very unique indicator that captures the level of consumer interest in purchasing discretionary (non-essential) items. It measures activities that occur well in advance of the purchase, so that makes it a true leading indicator. The indicator that I choose to focus on is called the "Absolute Demand Index." It tracks where demand is compared to levels in 2005, a fairly normal level. So, if the Absolute Demand Index level is 90, it means the level of consumer interest in purchasing discretionary items is 90% of what it was in 2005. The index is expressed in a daily form (see chart to right) and a monthly form (see chart below.)
Latest Reading: Absolute Demand Index daily reading is approximately 78 for September 13, which means preparations for consumer discretionary purchases are about 22% lower than the fairly normal levels seen back in 2005.
Implications: The monthly update (left) shows that the absolute level of demand has really been dropping since August 2011, with some ups and downs. A chart reader would probably suggest it's in something like a downward channel pattern. It is concerning for GDP numbers, as these have generally been well correlated to the consumer spending portion of GDP.
We need to see a significant improvement in areas that would suggest a sustainable consumer recovery, namely a surge in income. We are currently in the middle of a very slowly rising trend in personal income that happens to be at risk of ending. I anticipate that things will remain quite dreary for consumers in the coming months.
The consumer needs to have money to spend on discretionary items. That money generally comes from jobs, and job growth is in a positive trend though not as steep a trend as we'd like. Watch for those statistics on disposable income levels to really get a feel for whether consumers have money to spend. The trend for disposable income has generally been about flat since March.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, if the daily Absolute Demand Index is 98 or higher, I will rate that "positive" – between 90 and 98 will be "neutral" – below 90 will be "negative."
Economic Indicator: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index US | POSITIVE
Easy Intro to Citigroup Economic Surprise Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: September 13, 2013
Quick 'n Easy
An index that measures whether reports on economic data are generally coming in above, at or below expectations suggests that we are getting reports that are significantly better than expectations. This does not necessarily mean the reports are good or bad – just significantly better than expectations.
Easy Description: Daily measure of whether, on balance, U.S. economic reports have been better than (positive values), worse than (negative values) or same as (zero) what economists have expected. For the importance of this, see my post about expectations versus actual results. Also, check out my article on the relationship between the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index turning positive and the effects on the stock market.
Latest Reading (Approximate): Positive (+) 50 on September 13, 2013 (versus +56 one week ago) – NOTE: I no longer have free access to actual index values, so I am forced to approximate from the chart image.
Implications: The index has mostly surged upward the past few weeks and is now well into "positive" territory. In other words, economic reports are significantly better than expectations, not necessarily good or bad – just significantly better than expectations. I'll remind you of my post on the relationship between the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and the S&P 500 ("the market").
Keep in mind what is basically happening, as it is usually a cycle. Expectations rise as a result of improving data, and then it becomes more likely that data will disappoint. It doesn't actually mean the data get worse, only that they disappoint versus expectations. The reverse then happens in order to complete the cycle. We hope that the downturns don't go as deep as the upturns go high.
Remember that economic reports aren't necessarily leading indicators, so where we are headed could be somewhere better (or worse).
Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will give this indicator a rating as follows: 100 to 34 is "positive"; between 34 and -34 is "neutral"; -100 to -34 is "negative."
Economic Indicator: Employment Trends Index | NEUTRAL
Easy Intro to Employment Trends Index | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: August 2013
Quick 'n Easy
A combination of indicators related to the jobs market through August 2013 suggested that the coming months will probably show continued growth in jobs but at a slower rate than what is needed. It likely won't be enough to quickly push down the unemployment rate.
Easy Description: Combines several indicators together to provide an outlook for employment growth.
Latest Reading: 113.54 for August 2013 (up 4.5% from one year ago) – July 2013 reading was revised up to 112.80
Implications: The index edged higher as it generally has been since late 2012. According to an expert on the index, "The growth of the Employment Trends Index (ETI) in recent months suggests that employment is likely to moderately expand through the fall. The rapid job growth in the first half of 2013 was faster than we had expected given weak economic activity and only moderate improvement in the ETI. The slowing down of employment in the past two months brings the six-month trend to a more sustainable rate."
TRANSLATION: It's hard to believe jobs have been growing this fast in such a slow-growing economy, but the last couple of months slowed down enough to make the average look about right for sluggish growth.
This is consistent with my analysis of the August 2013 Employment Report and how the trend of sluggish growth continues. Those comments suggest continued sluggish growth in jobs, just as we see sluggish growth in the overall economy.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: For this index, I will base my rating largely upon what the index expert says. If the indication is for job growth of any kind, I will rate it either "positive" or "neutral" depending upon the level of growth. If jobs are expected to decline, I will issue a "negative" rating.
Economic Indicator: Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-Month Moving Average | NEUTRAL
Easy Intro: None yet | Link to Source | Latest Date This Info Represents: July 2013
Quick 'n Easy
An index combining 85 indicators into one number suggests that, over a three-month period, the economy was growing at a rate that was slower than historical averages in July 2013. This isn't great news, but at least it wasn't low enough to consider a recession. It helps rule out a recession as of July at least.
Easy Description: The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago combines 85 different indicators into one number to give a sense of whether the overall U.S. economy is growing faster than its historical trend (numbers above zero) or slower (numbers below zero). It's not as simple when you're trying to determine whether the economy is actually growing (expansion) or shrinking (recession). If you average the last three months' index values, you get the CFNAI-MA3 ("moving average 3 months"). According to the Chicago Fed:
When the CFNAI-MA3 value moves below -0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun. Conversely, when the CFNAI-MA3 value moves above -0.70 following a period of economic contraction, there is an increasing likelihood that a recession has ended.
Latest Reading: The more reliable moving average of the last three months (CFNAI-MA3) for July 2013 was negative (-) 0.15, which was a slight improvement from the previous month's revised reading of negative (-) 0.24. This keeps the indicator at "neutral" by my ratings thresholds. The single month CFNAI reading for July 2013 was negative (-) 0.15, which was a slight improvement from the previous month's revised reading of negative (-) 0.23.
Implications: In July specifically, economic activity was slightly below historical averages (negative (-) 0.15 for the single month reading), and the more reliable way of looking at things shows an economy that was growing at a rate below historical averages (-0.15). This isn't a great number, but it is the second consecutive month that we've seen an improvement in this figure. That's all I want you to focus on because month-to-month variations can often mean little. But if you want a deeper dive into the data, read on.
The single-month reading for July was below historical averages, but it was a slight improvement from the level we saw for the single-month reading in June. I like to see how many components were within 0.10 units of zero (average), between 0.11 and 0.20 units (close to average) and greater than 0.20 units away from zero (well above/below average). In summary, of the four broad categories of indicators in the latest month, the breakdown looks like this:
- Well Above Average: 0
- Close to Average (positive): 0
- Average (positive or negative): 3
- Close to Average (negative): 1
- Well Below Average: 0
ZERO of the four components moved from one category level to another (using revised data from last month):
- Production & Income: No change
- Employment, Unemployment & Hours: No change
- Personal Consumption & Housing: No change
- Sales, Orders & Inventories: No change
Looking at the range of indicators, 53 of the 85 total indicators were better this month than they were the previous month. The "diffusion index" is a measure of how widespread the gains (or losses if it's negative) were across the 85 indicators, and it is a three-month moving average. The 3-month diffusion index for the latest month was negative (-) 0.02, meaning that there was no consensus of indicators' direction over the last three months. This was a very slight improvement over last month's diffusion index of -0.03 and the second consecutive improvement.
Keep in mind that this index reports significantly later than other ones, likely because it takes a while for all 85 of its required indicators to be updated! Still, I like its comprehensive look at the economy and its fairly reliable prediction of upcoming recessions.
Easynomics Rating Methodology: I will give this indicator a rating based on the CFNAI-MA3 as follows: +0.20 or higher is "positive"; between +0.20 and -0.70 is "neutral"; -0.70 or worse is "negative."
Economic Indicator: Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index (EREPSI) | POSITIVE
Easy Intro to Easynomics Real Estate Price Stability Index | Latest Date This Info Represents: July 2013 (contains estimated portion)
Quick 'n Easy
An index designed to look at the stability of home prices indicates that, thru July 2013, we are essentially at equilibrium – home prices would need to fall about 0.3 percent to reach a theoretical stable point. This keeps the indicator at "positive" as it's better for things to stay close to equilibrium.
Easy Description: This index is an average of three indicators that help ascertain whether home prices are above or below historically normal levels: 1) new homes inventory months of supply, 2) existing homes inventory months of supply and 3) price-to-rent ratio. For more info on what these mean, click on the "Easy Intro" above.
Latest Reading: Thru July 2013, the EREPSI is at negative (-) 0.3 percent, which means prices would need to fall 0.3 percent to reach a stable point. The July reading is based on actual values for the "months of supply" components but uses an estimate for Case-Shiller HPI. For recent trends, you can read my latest analysis on new residential homes inventory months of supply or existing homes sales and inventory months of supply.
Implications: A big jump in months of supply for new homes in July contributed to a drop in the EREPSI, moving it almost perfectly into equilibrium, which I consider a positive for the economy. Of course, we'll need to see what happens to inventory in the coming months. If recent trends continue, it is likely this index will remain close enough to equilibrium through at least June 2014 to stay at the "positive" rating, with the possible exception of one month (Jan 2014).
Easynomics Rating Methodology: In the housing market, if things get too far "out of whack" with respect to price-to-rent ratio and inventory, it doesn't matter which direction … it's a negative. We don't want a bubble or an overly pessimistic crash. Therefore, I will give this indicator a rating as follows, based on the most recent month with actual "months of supply" data to use in calculations: Within 7.5 percent of zero in either direction is "positive"; within 15 percent of zero in either direction (but not closer than 7.5 percent) is "neutral"; farther than 15 percent from zero in either direction is "negative."
Easy Trends Dashboard
Updated: September 6, 2013
Consensus Score: +2.61 (vs +2.61 one week ago)
Interpretation: Clearly in a positive direction, with very few unconfirmed trends or off-trend readings
|Trend Score* (change from last roundup)
|Employment Report
|Existing Homes Sales and Inventory Months of Supply
|Factory Orders
|Industrial Production
|New Residential Homes Sales and Inventory Months of Supply
|Personal Income Levels
|Residential Investment
|Unemployment Claims
*Trend Score Definitions:
- Confirmed trend with no recent readings that are off trend: +3 (good direction) or -3 (bad direction)
- For each consecutive recent reading that was off trend in the opposite direction, I move the score by one point in the direction of zero
- Unconfirmed trend: +1 (good direction) or -1 (bad direction)
- No trend that has at least 50 percent confidence: 0
Easy Take
Last week, the ADS Business Conditions Index moved up into "positive" territory, but reports indicate it may have been because a couple of states didn't report all their weekly jobless claims. Thus, we may well see this index move back into "neutral" as soon as next week – we'll wait and see. The upgrade happens to move the dashboard up to "positive" overall, but I'm not ready to get excited just yet until we see the revised jobless claims figures.
The Easy Trends Dashboard stayed the same this week. Every component of the Easy Trends Dashboard is still positive. The overall average for the trends dashboard suggests that indicators I follow are clearly headed in the right direction for the most part.
We currently have 4 positive, 2 neutral and 1 negative economic indicators. Using a scale of positive=3, neutral=2 and negative=1, this yields an average rating of 2.43 out of 3.00 (versus 2.29 one week ago), which falls in the upper third of the possible range. In other words, my set of economic indicators combine into a "positive" rating. The consensus view of the above indicators is that economic conditions are consistent with positive growth at or above the historical average rate. Trends are very likely headed in a good direction.
Disclaimer: My dashboard isn't really a group of similar indicators, so we can't say that it represents any one particular thing. For example, it's not geared strictly toward predicting the future of the economy like a leading indicators dashboard. It's not like a coincident indicator dashboard that focuses on how things are right this second. It's just a bunch of things I like to follow, interpreted in a way to be consistent with either economic growth or shrinkage. I would just guess that if the indicators I most like to follow start trending one way or the other, there is a good chance the economy is going that way, too.

subset: commoncrawl


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Here's some good news: if you've been arrested, your driver's license might not necessarily be suspended. Only certain kinds of offences will result in losing your license. However, that suspension might be permanent, depending on what you've done.
According to the paralegal firm Traffic Services, there are a number of reasons your license could be suspended. You might have neglected to pay traffic or parking tickets. It might be due to a medical reason. You could have exceeded your limit of demerit points. Or, your license could be suspended due to an alcohol related offence.
The length of your driver's license suspension depends on the offence. Traffic Services notes that the first time you're caught driving with a suspended license, you'll receive a mandatory six month suspension above and beyond the original penalty. Driving without insurance might lead to a year long license suspension.
A first time impaired driving offence could lead to a prohibition on getting behind the wheel for a year, and if you're caught doing it again, you'll lose your license for three years. Refusing to provide a blood or breath sample can result in criminal charges. The charges are the same for an impaired driving offence, with an automatic one year suspension of your license.
Dangerous driving can also lead to losing your license, temporarily. Under the Canadian Criminal Code, "dangerous driving" is defined as driving over 80 kmh over the speed limit and/or in a fashion that puts other people's lives in danger. A dangerous driving conviction will lead to an automatic one year suspension. If someone sustains injuries as a result of your dangerous driving, that's referred to as "dangerous driving causing bodily harm" under the Criminal Code. You can lose your license for a year, and you might be imprisoned.
Each Canadian province or territory has different policy for driver's license reinstatement. You'll need to check with your province or territory's Ministry of Transportation to determine the exact process you need to undergo, as well as the fees you need to pay, in order to get your license back.
Canadian Legal Resource Centre Inc., a paralegal firm, has some bad news for you on this front: a record suspension does not mean you can drive legally. A record suspension means your criminal offence no longer counts against you. It does not have the power to reinstate driver's licenses. Also, just because you've received a record suspension, your provincial or territorial MTO might not reinstate your license.
There's some good news on this count: Canadian Legal Resource Centre explains that if your license was suspended as a result of the offence for which you're seeking a record suspension, it doesn't affect the waiting period to receive a record suspension. However, if your license is suspended during the waiting period, your record suspension could be denied.


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- Jan 26 - YLI holds Super Student Primary Mock Election
- Jan 26 - YLI Plans Student Film Contest and Viewing
- Jan 05 - YLI's 2015 Mock Election and Youth Voter Survey measures student attitudes towards voting
- Sep 14 - YLI moderates the Summit for Future of Civic Engagement
- Sep 14 - YLI Holds Third Teacher Day Workshop in Coordination with LoWV
- Sep 11 - Constitution Day 2015: Lunch with James Madison video now Live!
YLI, a program of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, develops FREE education resources designed to assist civics teachers, and encourage students to participate in the political process. Signup to access these programs:


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In case you haven't noticed, and judging by the attendance, you haven't, Hokie basketball is back! The Baby Hokies never trailed in this game, controlled the game throughout, but could not put away the pesky phoenix due to poor free throw shooting in the second half (stop the presses).
The Hokies had to work harder in this one than people may have expected, mainly thanks to horrific second half foul shooting (13/26), but found a way to hold on and win. Tech took a 4-2 lead early and never lost it. VT led by as many as 15, but the game remained in single digits most of the second half.
Jeff Allen (Fr) led the Hokies with 19 points, including 13 in the first half. I'm not going to anoint him the best Hokie forward since Ace Custis just yet, but… Jeff was the most impressive freshman of the four that played tonight. He was a beast on the boards. He was a force on offense, including a three-pointer. His only glitch was that he was beaten in the low post a couple of times in the first half and gave up some easy hoops. But after that, he showed his shot blocking presence with two or three blocks. Allen had a double-double, chipping in 10 rebounds.
A.D. Vassallo (Jr) had 17 for Virginia Tech. He showed his usual smooth stroke from the outside, and had some nice pull up jumpers. However his free throw shooting down the stretch was lousy. If he was a rapper, his name would be 50 (per)cent, as he hit one of two from the line on most trips. He did hit two clutch free throw with 19 seconds left after elon cut the score to 65-64. Vassallo also worked much harder on D than he has in the past.
Deron Washington had 14 for the Hokies. He kicked off the 2007-08 scoring with an early runner. Deron had a nice breakaway dunk in the first half that brought the crowd to its feet, a second half dunk that gave the elon player in his way tonsilitis, but he missed all three of his three-point attempts. He played some at the shooting guard spot on O and D, which is a new twist but seemed to be a good look for him and allowed him to use his explosiveness. Like Allen, Deron had a double-double with his 14 points and 11 boards. And I'd be remiss if I didn't give you the…
Deron Flop-O-Meter: 6 (times Deron needlessly fell to the ground)
Let's break things down.
The offense looked stagnant at times, which is not rare for a Greenberg offense. Little movement away from the ball at times. The low post players, namely Allen and Cheick Diakite, showed some nice moves. Cheick used to spin baseline every time he got the ball last year but showed a baby hook into the lane tonight. Allen has the same hook. He can use either hand near the hoop.
The guards (Malcolm Delaney and Hank Thorns) did not force the action much. They seemed content to sit on the perimeter and just throw the ball around or feed it inside. Thorns appears to have a slightly better handle and had a nice feed for a dunk to Diakite. Neither of them pushed the ball up the court much. Even though Greenberg said this team would run a lot, the Hokies really didn't do much of it tonight. elon did a good job of getting back although Tech did have a few breakaways and did well scoring in transition. The Hokies really need to find ways to get out on the break more since they are not strong in a half court set. Thorns and Delaney combined for just 6 points, although they did combine for 7 assists.
The wings: Vassallo, Washington, and J.T. Thompson, had a solid game. Most of the offense went through them, at least in terms of creating points. Thompson looked good in limited minutes, scoring 7 points, but had little action in the second half.
Tech opened in a 1-3-1 half court trap with Deron at the top and Thorns (5'9″ish) at the bottom [yes, you read that correctly]. It seemed like a good look for the Hokies that could get them some turnovers but the Hokies never used it again after the first media timeout. The Hokies played man for the final 35 minutes.
Tech's help defense was poor and often guys for elon drove right down the lane and scored or dished for a wide open jumper. This should improve as the young guys gel and get used to Greenberg's system.
Allen has quick hands on defense and had a couple of steals. He really has no weakness in his game from what I saw tonight.
Thorns is quick but loses his man in the lane on penetration due to his small size. This will be a liability as the year goes on.
Delaney works very hard at defense and will be brought in for Thorns in defensive situations. Delaney is also a terrific free throw shooter and will come in for that late in games.
A long time bugaboo of the Hokies and it showed no improvement tonight. Tech gave up numerous offensive rebounds, especially in 50/50 situations (high or long rebounds). Allen is Tech's best rebounder. Diakite and Vassallo are solid, too. Witcher is just not aggressive enough on rebounds and that is why he sees the fewest minutes of the three big men (along with Allen and Diakite). Neither guard did much on the boards. Tech will likely get eaten alive again on the boards this year, after finishing 11th in the ACC in rebounding margin last season.
GREAT turnout by the students! Student section was almost full and they were up the entire game and making noise. Very impressive. Need to keep this intensity!
Old folks (like me) only filled about 2/3 of the rest of the arena. Maybe 7,000 at best were there. Still more than I expected for elon, but a disappointment on a football weekend considering there will be 60,000+ Hokies (not counting noles) in Lane tomorrow.
Highlight of the Game:
I'd have to go with when 6'8″ Jeff Allen brought the ball all the way up the court and fed 5'9″ Hank Thorns for a lay-up.
Boxscore: VT 69, elon 64
Points Leader: Allen – 19
Rebound Leader: Washington – 11
Assist Leader: Thorns – 4
Blocks Leader: Diakite – 3
Steals Leader: Allen – 4
FG%: 47% (41% against)
3-Pt%: 3/10 – 30%
FT%: 59% (7/8 in the first half but just 13/26 in the second)
Halftime Score: VT 37, elon 29
Allen – A- | Just needs to be a bit better on D; fronting guys may not work for him since he is a little short. But man was he impressive and has a WIDE body. Very aggressive on offense with good low post moves, even with his back to the basket (something the Hokies haven't had much of lately).
Washington – B+ | Needs to assert himself more on offense and needs to hit his 3's to get defenders to come out on him.
Vassallo – B- | Played better D than I expected but had 3 traveling calls.
Thorns – C- | Ran the offense alright, but really didn't create anything on the break or the half court set. Gets lost on D.
Diakite – B | Did what he was supposed: bang inside. Showed a nice hook shot.
Thompson – A | Looked good while he was on the court. Nice mid-range jumper and had a sweet dunk. Earned more minutes, in my opinion.
Delaney – C | Like Thorns, just didn't do much. Too passive. Good energy though but needs to assert himself on O.
Witcher – D+ | Didn't score. Didn't look aggressive on the boards.
All starters played 24+ minutes with Deron logging 36 and Allen 31. All three bench players had less than 20 minutes played.
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The Garden's Gifts Everlasting Wreath brings the freshness of the outdoors into your home or office displaying vibrant color and exquisite texture to add to your interior décor. Gorgeously designed with salal, brown German Statice, leaf green sorghum, green phalaris, natural dried nigella, mini lotus pods, green thistle, maiden hair fern, and natural flax in a natural twig base, this beautiful preserved wreath creates an exceptional gift for any occasion, such as a housewarming, to say congratulations, or as a thank you offering.Approximately 15"L x 15"W x 5.5"D. Do not place in direct sunlight as the coloring may fade.Not intended for outdoor use.
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For problems with drugs or for a list of meeting places, contact Narcotics Anonymous at 806-331-6262. For the Lubbock area, call 806-747-1976.
Anyone who may be struggling with issues related to loss can contact Hospice Care of the Southwest for support. During November, National Hospice Month, free, one-hour presentations on Coping with Grief During the Holidays will be offered in locations across the Texas Panhandle.
Visit www.hospicesouthwest
.com for a complete listing and color information sheets about each location. For more information, call 806-356-0026 or toll free 866-654-2941.
The Randall County Master Gardener hot line is open from 9 a.m. to noon Monday and Thursday from Oct. 1 to Nov. 8, according to J.D. Ragland, Texas A&M AgriLife Extention Service agent for Randall County. The hot line number is 806-468-5543.
The Randall County Master Gardener Association is a nonprofit educational and charitable organization working with Texas AgriLife Extension Service to assist people in the surrounding communities through horticultural education.
Amarillo Public Library has two new services, Library ELF and Text-A-Librarian.
Library ELF is an online service that alerts patrons before library materials are overdue by sending email reminders. Subscribers can customize the alert preferences to receive a notice the day before materials are due or several days earlier. Library Elf will also alert patrons when materials on hold become available and allow families to keep tabs on multiple Amarillo Public Library card numbers.
Text-a-Librarian allows patrons to send a question directly to the library through a mobile phone text.
To use the service, patrons simply text "askamapl" to 66746 and then save 66746 in the mobile phone under the name askamapl.
Patrons can then send questions directly to that number, where it will be received by the reference staff who will send the answer back as a reply.
For more information, contact Stacy Yates at 806-378-3051 or email stacy.yates@amarillo
Amarillo Independent School District announced its policy for providing free and reduced-price meals for children under the National School Breakfast and Lunch Programs. A copy of the policy, which may be reviewed by any interested party, is at the Food Service Office, room 223, in the Amarillo ISD building, 7200 W. Interstate 40, in Amarillo.
To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250; or call toll free 866-632-9992.
Individuals who are hearing impaired or have speech disabilities may contact USDA through the Federal Relay Service at 800-877-8339; or 800-845-6136, Spanish. USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.
Residents of Potter County and Amarillo who have questions about insects, turf, trees, shrubs and ornamentals can call the Potter County Master Gardener help line at 806-242-4704 to get answers and expert advice, according to Brandon Boughen, Texas AgriLife Extension Service agent in Potter County.
Master gardeners are volunteers who have gone through AgriLife Extension's Master Gardener program and have 50-plus hours of in-depth, rigorous training to become certified to answer questions, Boughen said.
The hot line will be active on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, he said, but callers can leave a message any other time and someone will get back to them as soon as possible.
Master Gardeners will provide research-based information to help the client make a more informed decision, Boughen said.
For more information or to get help with a problem contact Boughen at 806-373-0713 or on the help line.
Amarillo Public Library and Harrington Library Consortium offers library patrons access to on-demand software training and support. Most library cardholders now have access to Atomic Training, which provides online software training within the library and remote locations.
Atomic Training offers quick online video tutorials on common software, such as Word, PowerPoint, Excel, Windows, Outlook, iPad/iPod Touch, iLife, Google, Gmail and more. Patrons can use the program to find an answer to a specific question or to become proficient on a variety of software applications.
To save money and resources for area libraries, the contract with Atomic Training was negotiated through the Harrington Library Consortium, which means Atomic Training will be available through more than 100 Texas Panhandle libraries. HLC cardholders can check with their local library to find out if Atomic Training is available.
For more information, contact Stacy Clopton Yates at 806-378-3051 or email firstname.lastname@example.com.
The InterFaith Hunger Project needs volunteers willing to package and carry groceries, unload food donation trucks and deliver boxes of food and dry goods to homebound clients.
For more information, contact Dena Dyer, Catholic Family Service community liaison, at 806-376-4571 ext. 223, or 806-690-7878.
— Globe-News staff


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I love to suck my husbands cock you have to swallow it all he loves it any takers out there I want to suck two cockd at once
Michelle just joking where you from any way
so sweet'
She can suck me any time.
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Wish she would suck mine...its clear its always the same guy and he has a small one but she always makes it watchable
Wow! This must have been one of Desirae's firsts! Looking great!!!


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House prices in all 2012 London host districts continue to race ahead
Latest figures reveal London's six host boroughs have seen some of the highest property price rises in the capital since the 2012 summer games, as the Olympic legacy lives on...
Latest figures reveal London's six host boroughs have seen some of the highest property price rises in the capital since the 2012 summer games, as the Olympic legacy lives on...
Enfield is best known for his BBC sketch show 'Harry Enfield and Chums', which ran from 1990 to 1998
Walsh reportedly confronted two men who were allegedly urinating in his neighbour's garden
The boys were approached as they walked to school along a footpath at 8am
The unassuming Dutchman is the planet's greatest micro-vegetable innovator who believes his creations could help the developing world avoid heart disease and cancer
Why burn energy in the gym when you could harness that effort to spruce up public spaces, or visit lonely pensioners? Charlie Gilmour joins a growing crew of sweaty do-gooders
Karen Wright meets the artist in his studio in Hackney, east London
Police have 'lost control' of the streets, according to a recently retired police sergeant
'There's frightening stuff going on, playgrounds sold off to be more Canary Wharf new builds.'
Experts question Hackney Council's claim that the animals post a "severe health risk" to deer
The man, who has not been identified, was killed in Chatsworth Road
Manchester's Chorlton along with Herne Hill, Muswell Hill and Dagenham in London are some of the worst afflicted areas while Mossley Hill and Waterloo in Liverpool also feature prominently
Interiors brand House of Hackney has brought its signature bold prints and patterns to a capsule collection for Asos, says Rebecca Gonsalves
A 45-year-old man today denied murdering policeman Keith Blakelock during the Broadwater Farm Estate riot 28 years ago.
'I'll live' said Labour MP Abbott upon hearing the news
New high street experience finally receives planning permission and announces location on Bethnal Green Road in Shoreditch, London
Incident took place in Homerton - an area once dubbed 'murder mile'


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Our volunteer programs focus on the following areas:
Health Education and Health Care,
Education, HIV/AIDS and TB awareness,
Support and Counseling for abused children,
Computer literacy,
Teaching in Rural Schools
Child care and development,
Day care school,
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Construction works,
Skills training, and
Cultural Exchange.
With CAIN you don't just volunteer, but you bring hope and development to the community.
Venue: Adidome, Volta Region, Ghana
from 12-3-2010 to 31-12-2010


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LC-MS Gains Favor Due To the...
Expanding Use of NGS Has Largely...
Wall Street Decline Takes Its Toll...
Developers of DTC Genetic Testing Are...
Merck & Co. said today it launched a Phase I/II clinical trial designed to assess the combination of its investigational anti-PD-1 immunotherapy MK-3475 and the GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) oral kinase inhibitor Votrient® (pazopanib) in advanced renal cell carcinoma.
The trial is part of a new collaboration between the companies on MK-3475, in which Merck said it will evaluate the drug candidate in tandem with GSK drugs including pazopanib "and other agents in the GlaxoSmithKline portfolio in the future."
Financial terms were not disclosed.
"We look forward to initiating further collaborations to investigate MK-3475 in combination with other anti-cancer agents across a range of tumor types," Iain Dukes, svp, licensing and external scientific affairs, Merck Research Laboratories, said in a statement.
He added: "Collaborations like this are central to Merck's strategy to evaluate the potential of MK-3475 for the treatment of cancer."
Earlier this year, Merck promised to push ahead with development of MK-3475 through creation of an integrated unit to ensure that the company is prepared to bring its investigational anti-PD-1 immunotherapy MK-3475 to patients worldwide. Merck made the commitment October 1, the very day it disclosed plans to lay off an additional 8,500 staffers by the end of 2015.
Merck's commitment came six months after the FDA back in April designated MK-3475 as a "breakthrough drug therapy," in line for speedier reviews and decision-making by the agency.
MK-3475 targets PD-1 in patients with advanced (inoperable and metastatic) melanoma. By blocking PD-1, MK-3475 is designed to enable activation of the immune system's T cells that target cancer by essentially releasing a brake on the immune system.
Merck said MK-3475 is being studied in 10 clinical trials estimated to enroll over 4,000 patients across a broad range of cancer types including bladder, colorectal, gastric, and head and neck cancer; melanoma; non-small cell lung, triple-negative breast, and pancreatic cancer; hematological malignancies; and renal cell carcinoma.
Additional trials, both as a monotherapy and in combination with other cancer therapies, are planned in 2014.
Votrient won FDA approval in 2009 for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma—with a boxed warning for hepatotoxicity—and is now marketed in more than 80 countries.
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Tips for gardening in the golden years
Fill your garden beds with desirable plants so there is no room for the weeds. Also some plants can be raised up so as to be easier to reach.
Create plant beds around existing trees and shrubs so as to avoid extra detail work while mowing.
The slope in the front of this house was too steep to mow, so it was planted in Andorra Junipers, a shrub that needs very little fuss or care.
Few activities provide as many benefits to health as gardening.
First of all, there are the healthy vegetables and herbs to be found in garden spaces. Plus, filling the yard with the beauty…
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Road Games (1981)
Not Enough Info
Summary: Pat Quid is driving a semi across Australia. On the way he encounters various other travellers, and the occasional hitchhikers repeatedly as they're traveling the same road. A favorite pastime of Pat is to play games to pass the time on the journey. (imdb)
Genres: Drama, Suspense/Thriller
Country: Australia
Directed By: Richard Franklin
Written By: Everett De Roche
Starring: Stacy Keach, Jamie Lee Curtis, Grant Page, Marion Edward, Thaddeus Smith, Alan Hopgood, Robert Thompson
AKA: Roadgames
Additional Information & Actions
More information at IMDb


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Normally I don't like to write about European prospects in the midst of a very rough patch in the market because in that case there isn't much I can say that isn't already being said. I find it more useful to wait for those recurring periods in which the markets recover and optimism rises. Still, given the conjunction of political uncertainty in Beijing, low Chinese growth numbers, and another round of deteriorating circumstances in Europe, I will spend most of this issue of the newsletter trying to outline the possible paths countries like Spain must face.
For several years I have been saying that Spain would leave the euro and restructure its external debt. I should say that I specify Spain because it is the country in which I was born and grew up, and so it is also the country I know best. When I say Spain, however, I really mean all the peripheral European countries that, like Spain, are uncompetitive, have high debt levels, and suffer from low savings rates that had been forced down in the past decade to dangerous levels.Spain had a stronger fiscal position and healthier bank balance sheets than many of its peers when the crisis began, so any argument that applies to Spain is likely to apply more forcefully to its peers. As an aside I will add that France is for me the dividing line between countries that will be forced into devaluation and restructuring and those that won't – in my opinion France could go either way and we will get a much better sense of this in the first year of Hollande's presidency.
There are two reasons why I was and am fairly sure that Spain cannot stay in the euro (or, which amounts to the same thing, that Germany will leave the euro instead of Spain). The first has to do with the logic of Spain's balance of payments position, and the second has to do with the internal dynamics that drive the process of financial crisis.
To address the first, I would start by noting that thanks to excessively loose monetary policies driven primarily by German needs over the past decade, Spain has made itself wholly uncompetitive in the global markets and in so doing has run large current account deficits for nearly the entire past decade. Its fundamental problem, in other words, has been the process by which its savings rate has collapsed, its cost structure forced up, its debt levels soared, and a great deal of investment directed into projects, mostly real estate, that were not economically viable. As I have discussed often enough in previous issues of this newsletter, I think all of these problems are related and are the automatic consequences of the same set of policy distortions implemented in Spain and in Germany.
Until Spain reverses its savings and consumption balance and drives down its current account deficit into surplus, which is what a reversal of these distortions would imply, it should be pretty clear that Spain will continue struggling with growth and will continue to see debt levels rise unsustainably. But the balance of payments mechanism imposes pretty clear constraints on the process of adjustment. In that sense there are really only three ways Spain can regain competitiveness sufficiently to raise savings and reverse the current account:
I want to stress that these are, practically speaking, the only three ways for Spain to regain competitiveness. There are other ways that could in theory also work, but they are too unlikely to consider. One could assume for example that the rest of the non-European world – most importantly the US, China and Japan – take steps to stimulate their domestic economies sufficiently to force up consumption and run in the aggregate large and growing trade deficits. These deficits, whose counterpart would be a very large European trade surplus, would then bail out the whole eurozone by generating GDP growth rates that exceed the debt refinancing rates.
I think most of my readers will however agree that this is pretty unlikely. The rest of the world is also struggling with growth and in no hurry to run large trade deficits. Another possibility is that we suddenly see a rapid and dramatic move towards full fiscal union in Europe, in which sovereignty, for all practical purposes, is fully transferred to Brussels (or Berlin). But that probably won't happen either – the rise of nationalism throughout Europe has made this always-unlikely prospect even less likely.
So we are left largely with these three ways of allowing Spain to regain a cost structure that makes it competitive and allows it to amortize its debt while growing. Anyone who rules out two of the three ways listed above must automatically imply that Spain will follow the third way. So which will it be?
The first way is for Germany to reverse its surplus and begin running large deficits. This is by far the best way, but I think it is very unlikely. Berlin has made no indication that it is prepared to do what would be necessary for it to run large deficits and, on the contrary, it is even talking about the need for more austerity.
In part this is because Germany has a potentially huge debt problem on its balance sheet. As a consequence of its consumption-repressing policies during the decade before the crisis, Germany's domestic savings rate was forced up to much higher than it otherwise would have been and Germany has had to export the excess capital. Not surprisingly, given European monetary dynamics, this capital has been exported largely to the rest of Europe in order to fund the current account deficits of peripheral Europe that corresponded to the surpluses Germany so badly needed to grow.
It did this not by accumulating euro reserves, which it could not do anyway, but rather by accumulating loans to peripheral Europe through the banking system. As a result of all of these loans, Germany is rightly terrified that a wave of defaults in Europe will cause its own banking system to require a state bailout if it is not to collapse, and so it does not want to cut taxes and reduce savings because it believes (wrongly) that austerity will make it easier to protect its creditworthiness.
But German's anti-consumption policies are leading it towards a debt problem in the same way that similar US policies in the late 1920s created an American debt crisis during the next decade. In that light I thought this very illuminating quote from then-presidential candidate Franklin Delano Roosevelt might be apposite:
A puzzled, somewhat skeptical Alice asked the Republican leadership some simple questions:
"Will not the printing and selling of more stocks and bonds the building of new plants and the increase of efficiency produce more goods than we can buy?"
"No," shouted Humpty Dumpty, "the more we produce the more we can buy."
"What if we produce a surplus?"
"Oh, we can sell it to foreign consumers."
"How can the foreigners pay for it?"
"Why, we will lend them the money."
"I see," said little Alice, "they will buy our surplus with our money. Of course these foreigners will pay us back by selling us their goods."
"Oh not at all, "said Humpty Dumpty. "We set up a high wall called the tariff."
"And," said Alice at last, "how will the foreigners pay off these loans?"
"That is easy, said Humpty Dumpty. "Did you ever hear of a moratorium?"
And so alas, my friends, we have reached the heart of the magic formula of 1928.
Humpty Dumpty's grasp of the balance of payments, it turns out, is no more naïve than that of many European policymakers, and I suppose Germany will follow the historical precedent set by the US – and so many other countries that confuse trade surpluses with moral vigor. By refusing to take steps that seem on the surface to undermine its creditworthiness, Berlin will only ensure the debt moratorium that will probably demolish its creditworthiness anyway.
And of course without a major reversal of German's current account position the balance of payments constraint absolutely prevents net repayments from peripheral Europe. This game will go on as long as the core countries continue financing the periphery, but once they finally stop, the peripheral countries will almost certainly default or restructure their debt.
To take a brief detour before returning to discussing the three paths Spain can take, I think Berlin is betting that if they can prolong the crisis long enough, while pretending that the problem is one of liquidity, not solvency, they can recapitalize the German (and other European) banks to the point where they eventually are able to recognize the obvious and take the losses. This was, after all, the strategy followed by the US during the LDC Crisis of the 1980s, when it waited until 1989, seven or eight years after the crisis began, to arrange the first formal debt forgiveness (the Mexican Brady Bond). During that time a steep yield curve engineered by the Fed allowed the US banks to earn sufficient profits to recapitalize themselves to the point where they could finally formally recognize what had long been obvious.
There are at least two reasons however why this strategy won't work for the European banks. First, the hole in the European banks' balance sheets dwarves the equivalent hole in the balance sheets of the American banks during the LDC crisis. It would take them much longer then seven or eight years to fix the problem.
Second, postponing resolution of the debt crisis is extremely painful for the debtor countries, who have to bear the full brunt of the adjustment that both debtor and creditor countries really need to make together. This reduces maneuvering space for Europe because the political system in Europe is less able than that of Latin America during the 1980s to accommodate this very painful process. Well-functioning democracies, after all, make it harder for bankers and elites to force the cost of the adjustment onto the middle and working classes.
This is also the reason why Spain cannot follow the second of the three paths described above. The second path requires that Spain bear the full brunt of the economic adjustment, which in reality Spain and Germany should bear together. Spanish voters, however, will not permit (and rightly so) that Madrid force such economic pain on its citizens in the name of an ideal of "responsible behavior" (i.e. remaining within the euro) that is both mistaken and extremely painful.
The adjustment will require that Spanish wages and prices are forced down substantially until Spain can reverse the higher price differential relative to Germany from which it suffers. Figuring out how to do this is not very hard – we have plenty of historical precedents upon which to draw. To simplify substantially, there are basically two things that have to happen in order to force a relative decline in prices. First, unemployment must remain very high for many years so that wages either decline, or rise by less than inflation and relative productivity growth. This is pretty straightforward.
Second, there must be some way to deal with the real increase in the domestic debt burden. Why? Because there are two ways relative prices can be forced down, and both of these result in a real increase in the debt burden. First, high inflation in Germany can exceed lower Spanish inflation, and second, Spain can deflate. In both cases the real cost of debt must increase substantially – in the former case because high German inflation will force up euro interest rates so that Spain's refinancing cost will exceed its domestic growth rate, and in the latter case because deflation automatically increases the real debt burden.
How will we deal with the rising debt burden? Typically we do so by confiscating the wealth of small and medium enterprises or by confiscating the savings of the middle classes, and usually we do both.
So for Spain to adjust we need both very high unemployment for many years and we need to undermine the middle classes. Any policy that requires an enormous and unfair burden on both the workers and the middle classes is unlikely to be rewarded at the polling booths.
The huge unpopularity of the newly elected Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, in that context, should not be a surprise. I wrote last year just after the election that this would happen, although I thought it would take a year or two before the population really turned on him and made it impossible for him to govern. But Spaniards, from business leaders down to workers, are furious at the Rajoy government and this anger will continue until either the two major parties eject those of their leaders who continue to demand that Spain behave in a "responsible" way, or harder line extremist parties replace the two parties themselves.
I place the word "responsible" in quotation marks not because I am opposed to responsible behavior but rather because the attempt to tighten the budget and impose austerity in the name of remaining on the euro is being presented as the "responsible" thing to do. It is, however, no more responsible than the policies France used in the 1920s to revalue the franc to pre-War parity, which were also sold to the French public as the "responsible" thing to do.
In both cases (and in many other deluded attempts to protect hopelessly overvalued currencies underpinned by rising eternal debt), policymakers did not understand that their policies were guaranteed to fail and were based on a misunderstanding of the causes of the underlying crisis. The responsible thing to do is to acknowledge that the euro is indefensible and that Germany's refusal to share the adjustment burden, after it absorbed most of the benefits of the mismanaged monetary position it imposed on the rest of Europe, means that Spain will be forced to take on far more than its share of the cost.
But whether or not everyone agrees with my analysis of what really is "responsible" behavior, I think it most people will agree that, rightly or wrongly, Spanish voters are unlikely to accept high unemployment and an assault of middle class savings for many years without rebelling at the polls. Spain simply cannot accept the full burden of adjustment.
This means that the first two of the three paths I listed above cannot be followed. If I am right, we are automatically left with the third. Spain (and by extension many other countries) must leave the euro. It will be very painful and chaotic for them to abandon the euro, but the sooner they do it the less painful it will be.
I said at the beginning of this newsletter that there were two reasons why I was certain Spain would leave the euro, the first of which has to do with the logic of Spain's balance of payments position and the second with the internal dynamics that drive the process of financial crisis why I was certain that Spain would leave the euro. To address the second, I think Spain will leave the euro because it seems to me that the country has already started on the self-reinforcing downward spiral that leads to a crisis, and there is no one big enough to reverse the spiral.
How does this process work? It turns out that it is pretty straightforward, and occurs during every one of the sovereign financial crises we have seen in modern history. When a sufficient level of doubt arises about sovereign credibility, all the major economic stakeholders in that country begin to change their behavior in ways that exacerbate the problem of credibility.
Of course as credibility is eroded, this further exacerbates the behavior of these stakeholders. In that case bankruptcy comes, as Hemingway is reported to have said, at first slowly, and then all of a sudden, as the country moves slowly at first and then rapidly towards a breakdown in its debt capacity.
What is key to understanding the process is to see that stakeholders will behave for perfectly rational reasons in ways that politicians and moralists will decry as wholly irrational. Rather however than respond to appeals that they stop behaving irrationally, stakeholders will continue making conditions worse by their behavior as they respond the distorted incentives created by the erosion of sovereign credibility. To do otherwise would almost surely expose them to disaster.
To summarize what the self-destructive and automatic behavior of the stakeholders is likely to be, it is worth identifying some of the major stakeholders and to suggest how they typically react to a rise in the sovereign's default risk:
It is important to recognize the almost wholly mechanical nature of credit deterioration once a country is caught in this kind of spiral. Deteriorating creditworthiness forces stakeholders to adjust. Their adjustment causes debt to rise and/or growth to slow, thus eroding creditworthiness further.
The combination of these and other actions by stakeholders, in other words, can't help but reduce GDP growth, increase debt, and increase the fragility of the balance sheet, all of which of course undermines credibility further, so reinforcing the suboptimal behavior of stakeholders. All of the exhortations by politicians, the church, public intellectuals, bankers, etc. – and there will be many – that stakeholders put personal self-interest aside and act in the best interests of the nation will be useless. Slowing this behavior is not enough. It must be reversed.
But how can it be reversed? No one is big enough credibly to guarantee the creditworthiness of all the afflicted countries, and without a credible guarantee the downward spiral will occur, more or less quickly, until it is clearly unstoppable.
It is pretty clear that all of this is already happening in Spain and it is also pretty clear that every few months when the government announces the latest batch of economic and debt data, these numbers always turn out to be worse than expected and much worse than originally projected, which is, ironically, exactly what we should expect under the circumstances. Here is an article from Saturday's Financial Times that shows just how bad it is:
Nearly one Spaniard in four is unemployed, according to data released on Friday, as the country's economic and financial predicament prompted a government minister to talk of a "crisis of enormous proportions". The data from the National Statistics Institute showed 367,000 people lost their jobs in the first three months of the year. That means more than 5.6m Spaniards or 24.4 per cent of the workforce are unemployed, close to a record high set in 1994.
The data, which follow a sovereign credit rating downgrade, prompted José Manuel García-Margallo, foreign minister, to say that they were "terrible for everyone and terrible for the government". He compared the European Union to the doomed liner Titanic, saying that passengers would be saved only if all worked together to find a solution.
It is interesting that Garcia-Magallo is openly discussing the possibility of the "passengers" not being saved. Usually in the beginning of a sovereign debt crisis we spend an unfortunately long time in which policymakers insist that the market is overreacting to bad news and that the problem – inevitably a short-term problem driven largely by illiquidity – can be resolved with patience and hard work. There is no discussion of contingency plans because the contingency is unimaginable.
At some point however it becomes possible at least to acknowledge formally that policymakers might be forced into the contingency. Once this happens, the debate becomes much more intelligent and the resolution of the crisis is speeded up. I have no idea if we have reached that stage in Spain, but in that light I found an article last month, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of the Telegraph, both very worrying and, at the same time, comforting. In the article he says:
Articles calling for Spain to withdraw from EMU – or at least exploring the idea – are no longer rare. They are appearing every day.
…What is striking is the response on the comment threads of such pieces. My impression over the last month is that a large bloc of informed Spanish opinion has reached the conclusion that EMU is dysfunctional, and increasingly destructive for Spain. Many posters seem extremely well-informed, using terminology such as "debt-traps", "internal devaluations", and "relative unit labour costs".
Many point the finger directly at Germany, correctly stating that Berlin seems to think it can lock in a current account surplus with Club Med in perpetuity. Clearly, such as an arrangement is mathematically impossible within a currency union – unless Germany is willing to offset the surplus with flows of money for ever, either through fiscal transfers or loans or investment. These flows have been cut off.
Opinion is divided, of course. The pro-euro camp is still a majority. But the smothering conformity of past years has been obliterated.
As recently as six months ago one didn't discuss in polite company in Madrid the possibility that Spain would leave the euro and restructure its debt. The prospect was unthinkable and like many unthinkable things it could not be discussed.
This made it very unlikely that anyone except the radical parties of the left or right would be able to control the discussion and of course this was likely to lead to a more disorderly resolution. But now perhaps things have changed. If responsible policymakers, advisors, the press, and public intellectuals are indeed discussing and debating the future of the euro now, I am pretty sure that a real and open debate about Spain's prospects will quickly move the consensus towards abandoning the euro.
And that is why the article is comforting. The historical precedents suggest that typically policymakers postpone the decision to reverse the monetary straightjacket for as long as they can, and in the process they erect barriers towards such a reversal in the name of shoring up credibility. These barriers work by increasing the cost of a policy reversal, and the point of this is to improve credibility in investors' eyes by increasing the cost of "misbehavior" by policymakers.
Mexico did this for example in 1994 when, in order to convince an increasingly skeptical investor base that the central bank would not devalue the peso against the dollar, the Ministry of Finance shifted its domestic borrowing from peso-denominated funding to dollar-denominated funding, which of course would increase the debt-servicing cost of a devaluation for the government. Unfortunately, when policy is reversed anyway, as was the case in Mexico in 1994, the cost indeed ends up being much higher, and it takes longer for the economy to recover. In that sense the sooner Spain prepares for an abandonment of the euro the less painful it will be.
But of course it won't be painless. Whenever an analyst predicts that Spain will soon leave the euro he is almost always countered by someone who earnestly explains that Spain cannot leave the euro because the process will be too painful. In 1993-94 of curse we were told that this was why Mexico could not possibly devalue, and in 2000 and 2001 this was why Argentina could not possibly break the currency board. It would have been too painful to devalue.
But of course Mexico and Argentina both did devalue and, yes, it was a very painful experience but they did it because the alternative was worse. And likewise while it is true that Spain cannot leave the euro without experiencing a very painful process, the point is not that anyone is arguing that Spain should willingly and irrationally choose to endure pain. Spain will leave the euro because the alternative is worse.
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Michael J. "Paco" Thibodeaux
Rayne- Funeral Services for Michael J. "Paco" Thibodeaux, 59, will be held on Friday, February 7, 2014 at 10:00AM in the Duhon Funeral Home of Rayne Chapel. Visitation will be held on Thursday, February 6, 2014 from 10:00AM until 10:00PM and will resume on Friday morning at 8:00AM until just prior to service time. Interment will follow the funeral service at the Indian Bayou Methodist Cemetery in Indian Bayou. Mr. Thibodeaux passed away on Tuesday, February 4, 2014 at his residence in Rayne.
A longtime resident of Rayne, Mr. Thibodeaux was an auto mechanic by trade and was also known to be a very kind hearted, loving and caring father and friend who had a "natural spark" which would naturally brighten the day of those around him. He will be dearly missed by all who knew and loved.
He is survived by three daughters, Doye Thibodeaux of Indian Bayou, Meagan Thibodeaux of Crowley and Tara Thibodeaux Coons of Fayetteville, Arkansas; two sons, Shane Thibodeaux of Indian Bayou and Mark Bergeron of Rayne; his parents, Merton and Marlene B. Thibodeaux of Rayne; three sisters, Janice Doucet, Doye LeBlanc and Brenda Thibodeaux LeBlanc all of Rayne; three brothers, Glen Anthony Thibodeaux, Benny Joseph Thibodeaux and his wife, Shonna and Markus Thibodeaux all of Rayne and ten grandchildren, Alysia Colleen Thibodeaux, Braxton Duhon, Shayla Bergeron, Spencer Bergeron, Makenzie Thibodeaux, Kaydence Thibodeaux, Austin Thibodeaux, Ryleigh Thibodeaux, Kellen Coons and Linden Coons.
He was preceded in death by his wife, Colleen Lejeune Thibodeaux; paternal grandparents, Ambrose "Uncle Ambrose" and Amy Trahan Thibodeaux and his maternal grandparents, Eneas and Ella Mae McGee Lemaire.
Pallbearers will be Shane Thibodeaux, Glen Thibodeaux, Markus Thibodeaux, Glen LeBlanc, Donald Doucet, John McBride and Landon Doucet.
Condolences may be expressed online at www.duhonfuneralhome.com.
Duhon Funeral Home , LLC of Rayne has been entrusted with the arrangements.


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Memorial Day picnics and barbecues ought to include something for everyone.
Too often we forget about relatives and friends that don't eat meat.
An alternative to burgers made with made is this mushroom sandwich, topped with a luscious Greek-style salad.
Make it a meal: Serve with cucumber spears and a cold glass of lemonade or iced tea.
Mediterranean Portobello Burger
Recipe courtesy EatingWell.com
1 clove garlic, minced
1/2 teaspoon kosher salt
2 tablespoons extra-virgin olive oil, divided
4 portobello mushroom caps, stems and gills removed
4 large slices country-style sourdough bread, cut in half
1/2 cup sliced jarred roasted red peppers
1/2 cup chopped tomato
1/4 cup crumbled reduced-fat feta cheese
2 tablespoons chopped pitted Kalamata olives
1 tablespoon red-wine vinegar
1/2 teaspoon dried oregano
2 cups loosely packed mixed baby salad greens
Directions: Preheat grill to medium-high. Mash garlic and salt on a cutting board with the side of a knife until it's a smooth paste. Mix the paste with 1 tablespoon oil in a small dish. Lightly brush the oil mixture over portobellos and then on one side of each slice of bread. Combine red peppers, tomato, feta, olives, vinegar, oregano and the remaining 1 tablespoon oil in a medium bowl.
Grill the mushroom caps until tender, about 4 minutes per side; grill the bread until crisp, about 1 minute per side. Toss salad greens with the red pepper mixture. Place the grilled mushrooms top-side down on 4 half-slices of the bread. Top with the salad mixture and the remaining bread. Makes 4 servings.


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General Sterling Price
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Hi! My name is General Sterling Price
I am Domestic Shorthair from sentinel, OK
Nicknames: cute pie
Age: 5 years old
Gender: M
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My favorite tricks and treats are: lie on it back and fish treat
Where I hang out: outside under the tree
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Nutella is FROSTING
News flash folks, Nutella is a dessert! It has 21 grams of sugar in 2 tbs. That is actually TWO MORE THAN CHOCOLATE FROSTING!!!
If you wouldn't send a frosting sandwich, why would you send a Nutella one?
I love it too, but it isn't healthy!!
Don't care for the news?
Quoting anotherhalf:
You are the devil.
Nutella is EVIL. *whispers* eeeevvvviiiiiilllllllll
My son doesn't eat Nutella but I do. I don't need the facts, thank you very much. You're title should have a warning. I thought I was going to get a Nutella frosting recipe :)
Quoting faire_jour:
Don't care for the news?
Quoting anotherhalf:
You are the devil.
I don't eat the stuff, and it has nothing to do with "grams" of sugar. Its just gross.


text:
|SRJC starts Gateway to College
Program to help high school dropouts find path to diploma
A new program will be launched this fall at Santa Rosa Junior College's Petaluma Campus for youth who have dropped out of high school or are behind in credits towards high school graduation.
Gateway to College is a national program currently offered at 43 locations across the country.
There are seven Gateway to College programs in California, and Santa Rosa Junior College (SRJC) is one of three colleges in the state starting a new program for the 2013-14 academic year.
SRJC will become partners with Petaluma City Schools, Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District and the Sonoma County Office of Education to identify youth who would benefit from this unique program.
Gateway to College participants will enroll in SRJC courses to complete their high school diploma, and eventually earn college credits toward a degree, certificate or transfer pathway. One of the program's benefits is students will be able to enroll at SRJC without paying tuition while working towards a high school diploma.
"Our top priority is to give students a second chance to get a high school diploma and to get college credit at the same time," said Lauralyn Larsen, the SRJC Petaluma campus Dean of Student Services.
The 2013-14 SRJC program, which will have 48 students in two cohorts, will begin in August, and the college is accepting applications now from interested students.
Participants will attend SRJC's Petaluma campus full time and enroll in intensive reading, writing, and math classes. They will also be required to take courses in college success, counseling and physical education.
There will be strong "wrap-around" support for students, with staff hired specifically to assist them with academic planning, financial aid, scholarships, disability services, psychological services, and referrals to community services, such as off-campus housing and transportation.
"We are constantly on the lookout for our students who are not able to graduate from high school, and this will give us another opportunity to help them. We won't stop looking until everyone gets a high school diploma," said Petaluma City Schools Director of Student Services Dave Rose.
"Our district is excited to partner with SRJC and offer this unique model to our school community," said Cotati-Rohnert Park Unified School District Assistant Superintendent Elizabeth Kaufman. "We believe all students are entitled to a successful education, and Gateway to College will provide another pathway for students to prepare themselves for life beyond high school."
SRJC received a $325,000 contract from Gateway to College National Network (GtCNN) for a three-year period to launch the program, which will become self-sustaining by receiving Average Daily Attendance (ADA) revenue paid by the state to the college and through an agreement with its K-12 partners.
GtCNN receives support for this replication effort, in part from the Edna McConnell Clark Foundation, The Corporation for National and Community Service's Social Innovation Fund.
SRJC recently hired Vanessa Luna Shannon to be director of its Gateway to College program. Shannon is an experienced K-12 and community college educator and counselor. She is also a graduate of SRJC.
To be eligible for Gateway to College, youth must be between 16 and 20-years-old at the time of application, behind in high school credits for their grade level, and have a reading level of at least eighth grade.
SRJC will hold informational meetings to introduce the program to potential applicants. The meetings will be held on the following Tuesdays: April 16, 6 p.m.; April 23, 6 p.m.; and May 7, 6 p.m.
All sessions will be held at the Petaluma campus, 680 Sonoma Mountain Parkway, Call Building, Room 656.
Representatives of SRJC and the Petaluma and Cotati-Rohnert Park districts will be present to explain the program and answer questions.
For further information and to RSVP, call 778-3631 or e-mail email@example.com.


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News of a modern contraceptive that may revolutionize birth control practices around the world was announced in New York last month by Dr. Wayne Bardin, director of the nonprofit Population Council's Center for Biomedical Research. The new device, called the NORPLANT system, is more convenient, more effective and, claims Bardin, probably safer than the Pill. And good news for the occasionally forgetful users of the Pill: The contraceptive is effective for five years—and reversible with a minor surgical procedure.
The new device had its origin in the discovery that birth control steroids could be diffused through silicone rubber. Scientists experimented with various drugs and dosages for seven years before starting field trials in 1974. Their final product has now been called safe and effective by the World Health Organization, and is already in use in Finland and Sweden. It consists of six flexible capsules made of silicone rubber that are implanted just under the skin on the inside of a woman's upper arm. The simple operation is painless, and the capsules, once in place, cannot be seen beneath the skin. The capsules gradually release small quantities of a contraceptive steroid called levonorgestrel. The chemical does not contain estrogen, which is used in most oral contraceptives, and thus avoids side effects, such as headache, nausea and blood clotting, often associated with the Pill. The implant prevents pregnancy by inhibiting ovulation and thickening cervical mucus and, in this way, blocks the passage of sperm.
Developed over the past 19 years by the Center for Biomedical Research, the NORPLANT system has been tested by more than 14,000 women in 14 countries since 1974. According to Bardin, the implant "will fail less often than any other form of birth control except sterilization." Still the most prevalent method in the world, sterilization fails only once in every 1,000 cases. The implant, says Bardin, may fail three times in 1,000, while birth control pills fail "from 30 to 50 times per 1,000." The only women who cannot use the implant, says Bardin, are those suffering from liver disease, abnormal uterine bleeding or breast cancer.
Application for approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will be made within months, and the implant—currently manufactured in Finland—is expected to go on sale in the U.S. within three to five years. Probable cost: $30 to $60. Population Council President George Zeidenstein calls the implant "the most important new contraceptive system since the Pill," and the WHO report, he predicts, will prove "a giant step toward worldwide acceptance and availability."
Six Small Capsule Implants May Change the Way the World Conceives of Birth Control
updated 03/18/1985 AT 01:00 AM EST
•originally published 03/18/1985 AT 01:00 AM EST


text:
on December 13, 2012 - 8:26 PM
, updated December 13, 2012 at 11:17 PM
Clarence Hollow might add a touch of artistic flair next spring.
Members of the Clarence Hollow Association are planning to create a mural on an exterior wall of The Hollow Bistro and Brew restaurant at Main and Bank streets in the hamlet. Supporters picture the mural, which would be visible to drivers headed east on Main, as a way to draw more attention to the Clarence Hollow as a destination for shopping and dining.
"It's really going to brighten up the Hollow," said Kathy Ward-Lovejoy, a local artist involved in the effort. "People will slow down to see it and, hopefully, they'll stop and enjoy it."
The mural was discussed at the Hollow Association's annual membership meeting on Thursday.
Plans call for creating the mural on metal panels in an artist's studio over the winter and installing them on the bistro's wall in the spring when the weather improves, Ward-Lovejoy said.
Organizers were not ready to release a copy of the mural's design. "We kind of want to get it to be more concrete before we show it to the public," said Katie Yu, owner of the bistro.
Ward-Lovejoy said the design will be "an eclectic grouping of the present and the past," with images such as the bike path, churches, farming, transportation and food. "It's so hard to decide which elements to include, but we think we have a broad overview of the feel of Clarence, [a] very happy and colorful mural."
The organizers will team up with noted muralist Augustina Droze, who has worked on projects around the world, including in Buffalo. Droze is now locally based and continues to work internationally, Ward-Lovejoy said.
Backers of the mural say they will launch a fundraising effort to help pay for it but have not yet determined the project's cost.
Separately, a farm animal-themed mural was unveiled earlier this year at the Clarence Hollow Farmers' Market.
In other news from Thursday's meeting:
• Plans are taking shape for Hollow Fest, July 4 to 6 at Main Street Town Park.
Paul Cambria, owner of Gianni Mazia's and a Hollow Association board member, said the festival will be comparable to Old Home Days in Williamsville and the Labor Day Fair in Clarence Center. The event will include rides, entertainment and participation from local restaurants.
• Cambria suggested the town create a small amphitheater at the base of a hill that rises behind the farmers' market site. "You could have concerts, lectures and lots of things," he said. "It would be attractive, it would be cultural, it would be something that promotes the arts. And I think a small community like this is a natural for promoting the arts."
email: firstname.lastname@example.com


text:
Indexes to the Protection Certificate Registers
Name Birth State or Country Customs District Search the Database About
NARA, Northeast Region Protection Certificates Genealogical Fallout from the War of 1812: Dixon, Ruth.
Seamen's Protection Certificate Register Database
Jonathan Kachaugus?
Birth Place (City, State or Country): East Hampton, New York
Age: 21
Complexion: Indian
Height: 5' 9"
Certificate Information:
Customs District: New London
Date Issued: 02/14/1799
Certificate Number: 1197
To Order -


text:
Zimmerman may remain in jail through holiday
udge yet to decide on Zimmerman's bond
UPDATED 3:38 PM EDT Jul 03, 2012
George Zimmerman, the man accused in the death of Trayvon Martin, may spend the 4th of July holiday behind bars.
A judge has not decided yet whether to grant Zimmerman bond for the second time.
Zimmerman's first bond was revoked after the judge said he and his wife misled the court by claiming they were broke.
Judge Kenneth Lester is considering everything he heard at Zimmerman's bond hearing last Friday.
Martin was shot to death in a Sanford townhouse complex. Zimmerman said the shooting was self-defense. He faces second degree murder charges in the case.
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