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Ok, I have been crunching numbers on Crosstex for well over a year but I thought I might fine tune it after all of this activity.
We know that they projected that the Barnett Shale pipeline, which I believe they refer to as the North Texas Pipeline, is in the works and moving along nicely. The projects from management are that it will cost $98 million and with 75% of capacity full that it will bring in around 17.5 million. That works out to a 5.6x multiple, which is very attractive. For the sake of simplicity and to add a little conservatism to the mix, I will assume that the project costs $100 million and brings in just $15 million. We know that they like to finance 50% equity and 50% debt. So, lets say that they sale units of XTEX in a private placement (ie, a large number but at a discount to market price). Lets say that they sale 1.25 million XTEX units at $40/unit to raise the equity portion and they borrow the remaining 50 million at a rate of 7.5%. The current GP take per unit is approximately .53/unit and the current distribution is $1.88, so collectively, the newly issued units eat up around $2.41/unit or a total of $3.0 million dollars. The debt service eats up around $3.75 million dollars, leaving a total of $8.25 million in surplus cash. Now I assume that they hold back 10% for the coverage (coverage ratio of 1.10x) so they will then have $7.5 million in accretive cash flow. That amount is split 50/50 between the LP's and the GP. So, $3.75 million is divied up over the 19.25 million outstanding units (originally 18.0 million plus the newly issued 1.25 million units). That comes out to .19/unit. On the conference calls, management has mentioned that this project will add .22/unit, so my numbers jive along close considering that I upped the construction cost, lowered the estimated cash flow(which was already using 75% capacity), I used a high borrowing rate and also a rather large discount on the units issued. if you run the numbers with less extremely conservative numbers, you can see that the cash available to be distributed could easily be closer to $.28/unit. So it looks like management has baked in a little surplus in case they encounter difficulties. So, that should, in essence, put the XTEX distribution up to $2.10/unit(using the .22/unit estimate by management).
I will also walk through the new acquisition and the Louisiana to Carthage pipeline project that they are working on with Kinder Morgan.
So what does all of this mean for XTXI?
Well, right now, the dividend is $1.72/share.
XTXI owns 10 million units of XTEX. The GP take right now, as was mentioned, on a per unit basis, is roughly .53/unit. After the .22/unit increase at XTEX, the GP take accelerates to .75/unit. So, XTXI is gaining more GP IDR's(incentive distribution rights) per unit, and their are more units outstanding(from 18 million to 19.25 million). That means between the GP take and the LP units XTXI's cash flow increase from 18*.53 + 12*1.88 or a total of $32 million to a total of 19.25*.75 + 12*2.1 or a total of 39.6 million. If you will remember, they mentioned that a .01/Q increase at XTEX equated to an increase of 300K/Q at XTXI. If you crunch the numbers above, you will see that .01/Q increase equates to 1.2 million a year. The above increase was 7.6 million which, if you divide by 1.2 million gives 6.33 and multiplied by .04 gives an increase of .25/unit, so that jives close with the .22/unit increase that they projected, and of course, ours is off because of the increased unit count. So, that 7.6 million increase, if taxed at 35% would be 5.0 million after-tax. That comes out to $.40/share in after-tax cash, which is what they had projected on the calls and in the presentations. So a dividend of $1.72 + $.40 = $2.12/share.
So now, couple the North Texas Barnett Shale Pipeline with the recent acquisition from El Paso. Crosstex paid $500 million for the assets and paid a multiple of 8.9x which means that the cash flow it generates is around 55 million. The multiple is very steep, however they said they believe they will be able to drive the multiple down with expansions and tying into existing assets that they own in Louisiana. So, again, taking the same aproach, they will most likely pay for the acquisition 50/50 debt and equity. Now the analysis gets a bit tricky because we don't know what price XTEX will be but we can make a very conservative guesstimate and assume tha they once again tap the private equity guys (Kayne, Tortoise, Fiduciary) and sell at a discount. So, the need to raise $250 million in equity capital. Lets assume again that they issue the units at $40/unit. So that is a total of 6.25 million units. Now lets also assume that those units will be receiving the increased distribution of $2.10 and a $.75 GP take. So, each unit consumes around $2.85/unit. So that is a total of $18 million that the equity portion consumes. We also assume that they finance the debt at 7.5%, so that eats a total of $18.75 million, so collectively, it consumes a total of around $37 million. That leaves 18 million to be split between the GP and the LP's. First, we will assume, again, that they hold back 10% for coverage. So they have $16.5 million to split. So, that leaves $8.25 million to be divided over 25.5 million units (the 19.25 million plus the newly issued 6.25 million). That comes out to around .32/unit, which is close to the .30/unit that they have projected. Again, we can see that management has been cautious and built a bit of surplus into the equation. So, from the XTXI perspective, they receive and additional (.30*25.5 + 10*2.4= $31 million. So collectively, they are receiving a total of $1.05 per unit for the GP take and $2.4/unit for each XTEX unit that they own. That is a total of (25.5*1.05 + 10*2.4) = $50.75 million divided over the 12.5 million XTXI shares gives $4.00 pre-tax. Now we will look at the Louisiana project that they have announced that will kick in during 2006. It is a capital project of around 225 million and the cash flow projection is around $40 million, giving it a multiple of around 5.6x. So, again, assuming they issue equity to pay for half of it, and again using a very conservative issuance price of $40/unit, they would need to issue 2.75 million units. Those units would consume (2.75*(1.05+2.4)= $9.5 million. The debt service would require $8.5 million, consuming a total of $18 million dollars. That leaves $22 million to be split between the GP and the LP. Again assuming a 10% coverage ratio, that would leave $20 million to be split. That would mean $10 million to be divided over (25.5+2.75=28.25 million units) or a total of .35/unit increase. So, they should be able to push the distribution to $2.75/unit. That would mean that XTXI is raking in (28.25*1.4 + 10*2.75) or a total of 67 million. Divided over the 12.5 million XTXI shares, that is a total of $5.36/share. If one assume a 35% tax rate, that is $3.50/share in after-tax cashflow to be paid out, and again, that baked a lot of conservative numbers into all of the calcs. They should be able to issue the units at better than $40/unit, they should be able to get debt at better than 7.5%, they should be able to drive the multiple down to something much lower than 8.9x on the recent El Paso acquisition. If the Barnett Shale pipeline goes to 100% capacity over the next few years as drilling increases, it is easy to see an XTEX distribution that is maybe $.50/unit higher than the $2.75/unit projection, and a XTXI dividend that is in excess of $4.00/share.
beerman - since you seem to be familiar with the previous yorktown distributions, do you have any idea how long this selloff might last? Do we typically see downward pressure for just a day or two, or for a couple of weeks or more?
I've been slowly moving my MWP money into XTXI since early June, and I am trying to determine if I should add more XTXI right now, or whether I should wait a couple of more weeks. I know you don't have a crystal ball or anything, but any input you might have would be appreciated.
I would suggest going to the XTXI website. looking at the releases of all of the Yorktown disbursements, then going back and looking at the chart on yahoo. My swag says that while the shares are not all out (only 180K traded today vs normal avg of 60K and they released 700K, although some of those are held by principals of Yorktown and are not selling) more shares to come out, but the $3.00 dividend in 06(and by my calcs, with the Louisiana expansion project, probably closer to $4.00 or higher), the downside wouldn't seem to be too great before value investors step in....but that is just my opinion.
I have not studied it historically, but I have been around for a few Yorktown distros. It seems there is an immediate drop when the market opens following the announcement. That seems to be the time to buy. Sometimes it dips below the morning after drop, but more often not from my recollection. It did not break into the 50s today on a bad day for energy and the market in general. I would think it will not go into the 50s, but it could. As for MWP, not long ago MWP was trading around half the price of XTXI, I suspect before long it will be trading at 1/3rd as one team is focused on creating shareholder value and one is intent on enriching themselves. One team is telling you will get $3 dividend soon and the other one literally is pretending the GP does not exist.
stlbeerman you are correct.
XTXI has told the shareholders that the year end 2006 dividend will be $3.00. Remember, I did a pretty detailed analysis of the numbers and these guys baked in plenty of cushion. They are from the Rich Kinder school of underpromising and over-delivering. As to whether or not it will see $50.00 again, well, I don't have a crystal ball. What I do know is that, and on the conference call, one of the analysts asked them for a 2007 projection, obviously trying to get a feel for the accretion that the project that they are building with Kinder Morgan will add. My swag was to examine the Louisiana project (not the recent Louisiana acquisition) in the same context as the North Texas (Barnett Shale) project. The two projects are being built at essentially the same multiple (5.6x), the Barnett Shale line is 98 million and will add .40 to XTXI. For a ballpark guesstimate, one could state that since they are being built at the same multiple, and since the Louisiana project is 2.25x larger, then the Louisiana project will add, again, approximately .90 to XTXI. That would push the dividend to $3.90. On the call, they also mentioned that they believe they can drive the purchase multiple down to 7x, meaning an addition 15 million in cash flow on top of the 56 million they forecasted. That would be split between the GP and the LP. Because the GP owns such a large number of LP units, the GP would end up getting 7.5 million, plus since they own 10 million LP units, that would be an additional 2.5 million (.25*10 million). So net, that is an additional 10 million pre-tax to XTXI which is around .82/share. After tax, that is around $4.40/share. A dividend of $4.40 yielding 3.5% would put the price at $125.
You're right about a $125 price target. The lowest it could be barring a major move in long term interest rates is mid $80 range which ain't bad. If at the end of 2006or 2007 there are still growth opportunities it will trade a lot higher than $80, though.
The great thing about it is, is that XTEX has super low cost equity capital. I hope we see either a seondary offering or a private placement that allows them to raise about $300 million in equity capital. I figure they could raise $300 million between a secondary offering of around 3 million units and a private placement of around 5 million units, assuming a price of say $40/unit. This would allow them to fund the Barnett Shale project as well as the El Paso project and leave only the Louisiana expansion project unfunded as far as equity capital is concerned. They have a lot of work to fund these projects, but clearly, they know what they are doing. What may end up happening is a series of secondary and private placement offerings that they string out over a year or 18 months. Kind of hard to float that many units on the public of private capital markets. Even with generous placement prices and average lock up restrictions, I doubt that the private guys like Kayne, Fiduciary, Tortoise and Claymore could swallow 5 or 6 million units.
They already said that they intend to issue more units later this year or early next. The only issue is when and how many units? They need to get their debt to EBITDA ratio down under 4:1, hopefully closer to 3:1 to keep a good bond rating. Timing is important also because you don't want to issue the units before you need them because to do so increases required distributions. Also, there are big transaction costs with each issuance, so you want to minimize them. They will go ex-dividend for Q3 in late-October, so I don't think they will do anything before then. Maybe in Nov. or Dec.? Do we know when they actually need the cash to pay for El Paso and the ongoing pipeline construction?
The El Paso deal could close as early as Oct. 1 but the expectation is Nov 1. Their North Texas pipeline project is due to come on in the first quarter.
My guess (and it is a WAG) is an offering in early December.


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Jessica Simpson, chilling out at a corner table with friends – and soon joined by sister Ashlee – at the Tropicana Bar at the Hollywood Roosevelt Hotel. On another night, Kate Hudson and Owen Wilson held court at the hot spot with a bunch of pals while Leonardo DiCaprio partied with Kevin Connelly and Nicky Hilton.
Madonna and husband Guy Ritchie, dining at the five-star restaurant at Rome's Hotel de Russie while a wedding party had their reception nearby. "When they walked in, everyone went quiet for a few seconds," a source tells us. After the celeb duo finished their meal, "the groom asked them if they would toast with them. They got up and went over to the newlyweds' table and toasted to the bride and groom."
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Will Ferrell, making his grand entrance in a racecar at the Hollywood premiere of Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby. Does the funnyman feel the need for speed in real life? "It depends. Freeway driving, I like to go 120 mph. City driving, not much slower – about 116 mph," he joked to us. "I got my license taken away about four times – that's okay."
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Rachel Bilson and Zach Braff making the scene at a listening party for the upcoming soundtrack to their film The Last Kiss at West Hollywood club Privilege. Braff, who is rumored to have split with girlfriend Mandy Moore, attended solo. But Bilson was there with boyfriend Adam Brody, who told us that the actress is "super-excited" about starring in her first movie.
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Category: Poleykett Family
Double Murder committed by Daniel EAST at Berkhamsted, England
Daniel EAST was born in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England on 10 Sept 1844. He was the son of Joseph EAST and Sarah POLEYKETT. On 22 July 1864 he married Ellen PLESTED at the Lower Baptist Chapel in Amersham, Buckinghamshire. They had four children, Albert b. 1865, Martha b. 1868, David b. 1874 and Frederick b. 1876.
By 1874 the family had moved to Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire but times were hard and Daniel was struggling to feed his family. In 1877 Daniel applied for parish relief but his claim was opposed by the local magistrate as he had twice convicted Daniel for public house rows. Daniel was distraught and could not see how his family would survive.
On Saturday 24 Feb 1877 Daniel took his two youngest children, David aged 3 and Frederick aged 8 months for a walk across the meadows. When he reached Pond Meadow he murdered the children by slitting their throats. He then laid the bodies next to each other and covered them with a blanket, placing a bible on top of them. Daniel then walked back to the town with the intention of murdering the magistrate who he expected to be at the petty sessions but on arrival he discovered it was not bench day, so walked instead to the police station where he gave himself up. He stated that he had murdered two of his children, handed the bloodstained knife over and told the police where the bodies could be found. The bodies were taken to the Crooked Billet public house where they awaited a coroners inquest.
Daniel was brought before the county magistrate and remanded in custody stating that he wished to be hanged immediately for his crime.
On 5 March 1877 Daniel stood trial for the murder of his children. He said he had done the deed because he had not a bit of bread to give the five children, so he thought he would take two of them and put them out the way. He had no ill feeling against his children, but did not wish to see them come to the Union. At the trial it became clear that Daniel had suffered with mental illness problems and had been an in-patient at the West Herts Infirmary suffering from mental derangement. The jury returned a verdict of wilful murder against him but not guilty on the grounds of insanity.
Daniel EAST was committed to the Broadmoor Criminal Lunatic Asylum in Berkshire, England where on 1 June 1911, aged 66, he died. Daniel had been in Broadmoor for a total of 34 years.
Information on the POLEYKETT family from Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England and London areas
There are many variations of the POLEYKETT surname, including:- POLLIKETT/POLLICOTT/POLLICUTT/POLLYKETT//POLYKETT
My 4 x great grandfather John POLEYKETT was born in 1800 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire. His occupation was that of a chair maker. He died in the St Pancras workhouse at the age of 74 on 18 Nov 1874. He was the son of Joseph POLLICATT and Sarah HORWOOD. He married Ann DELL on 30 May 1819 in Chesham Buckinghamshire. She was born 1803 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire and died Apr 1872 in London.
I know of 12 children born to John and Ann.
William POLEYKETT was born 6 Jan 1820 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England, and died in Bethnal Green Workhouse on 6 Oct 1898. His occupation was the same as his fathers, a chair maker. He married Sophia PLUMERIDGE at St Pancras Church on 22 Nov 1848.
Sarah POLEYKETT was born 23 April 1824 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England, and died 1875 in Chesham. She married Joseph EAST on 17 July 1844. There eldest son Daniel EAST committed a horrific double murder two years after Sarah's death which I shall post about in a separate journal.
Elizabeth POLEYKETT was born 7 Nov 1826 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England and died 1887 in Dartford, Kent. She never married and lived with her parents until their deaths.
Louisa POLEYKETT was born 25 December 1828 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England, and died Dec 1877 in London, England. (my 3 x great grandmother). She married first Francis Welsby HOLLAND on 15 July 1846 and was widowed in 1851. She went on to marry Edward Henry SAMPSON on 27 March 1854. There were children from both marriages.
Catherine POLEYKETT was born 13 Nov 1830 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England and died in 1866 at Amersham, Buckinghamshire, England. She married Joseph LACEY on February 21 1855 at Amersham.
Eliza POLEYKETT was born 1831 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire.
George POLEYKETT was born 4 Nov 1832 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England, and died Jul 1870 in Greater London, England. Like his father and brother William, George followed in the profession of chair maker. He married Eliza MURRELL on 20 May 1861.
Joseph POLEYKETT was born 4 June 1834 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England, and died at the age of 44 in Apr 1879 at Westminster, London. Also a chair maker. He married Rosina JENKINS on 27 July 1857.
Sophia POLEYKETT was born 2 December 1835 in Chesham, Buckinghamshire, England.
Martha POLEYKETT was born Dec 1837 in Buckinghamshire and died aged 6 at Pancras, London on 29 Mar 1844.
Henry POLEYKETT was born 1840 in St Pancras, London and died aged 4 on 17 Apr 1844 St Pancras, London.
Mary Ann POLEYKETT was born 18 Dec 1843 in Pancras, London. She married Joseph WINCHESTER on 18 May 1862.
Be great to hear off anyone with any connection or information on the POLEYKETT family.
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The Oreo cookie turns 100 years old this week.
The National Biscuit Company, later called Nabisco, sold its first batch of the Oreo cookies to a grocer in Hoboken, N.J., in 1912.
Ever since, millions around the world have been licking and dunking the delicious treat.
Fans young and old are celebrating the birthday of this chocolate cookie icon. Who doesn't love birthdays?
The oreo cookie is a favorite snack for kids and kids at heart.
"I'm eating an Oreo," one child said.
"I just eat it like a whole sandwich, and dip it in my milk," another said.
The chocolate wafer and single filling layer reigns supreme with consumers in more than 100 countries to the tune of more than $2 billion in annual global sales.
"I'm not sure how many people would have predicted the Oreo cookie, something as simple as some cream between two chocolate wafers would be around 100 years later," said John Murray, associate professor of marketing at the University of Iowa.
Whether you twist them, dip them, stack them or just chomp them - the chocolate and white cookie has enjoyed great marketing success.
"Do you take it apart? Do you dip it? Dunk it? Throw it all in your mouth at once?" Murray asked.
And those who loved milk's favorite cookie long ago still enjoy it today.
"My sister Ruthie would take them all apart and lick them, and them put them back together," one resident at a senior center said.
"Chocolate. They're dark. They're chocolate. They're a good bite. They're good," explained another resident.
"Oreo cookies were always my family's favorite. And all you needed to do was open it one day and it was gone the next," another senior said.
On this birthday, many hope the cookie icon will stay around for many more licks, twists, and dunks.
Oreo's Official 100th Birthday website
Nabisco World
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The "Trump train" was derailed in Wisconsin as voters in the Badger State gave Ted Cruz a major victory over "The Donald." The big question now is – are the Republicans headed for a contested convention this summer?


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Crime and safety
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Posts: 0 - It is hard to believe that Childrens Services and the police would turn these two neglected toodlers back to their mother after being found in the street, half naked, filthy diaper, the other one...
1230 days ago.
by lostinohio
Posts: 1 - Funny how all these people that are stopped in the early morning hours coming from known drug locations yet all they ever catch them with is pot or pipes. Wheres the crack an herion.
Cawood Mansion Home Invasion
Posts: 0 - This is a perfect example of why there should NOT be gun control!
NEBOSH certificate courses for occupational health and safety
Posts: 0 - [url=***********nifeindia****/international-certifications.
1464 days ago.
by jlg5768
Drug Abuse in the city!
Posts: 0 - here in the city you can look over at night and see the crack pipes lighting up.
2006 days ago.
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timely response?
Posts: 0 - Is it to much to ask to have a timely response when you call 911? I dint think so but apparently when you call for help your at the mercy of the dispatcher to send you an ambulance, 2 examples that...


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Top Definition
a white girl with a nice booty
Look at that wootie right there..where she at? oh, there she go...that white girl sure has a nice booty.
από neens 4 Μάιος 2006
Trending Now
Can you define these popular missing words?
a guy has a wootie a girl has a cutie
hi girly! you wanna see my wootie? cause my wootie sure would like to meet your cutie :)
από JynxTheLynx 4 Ιούνιος 2009
a really cute 5 year old boy. who likes cheetahs, and servals. and is really super cool. Wooties like good music, and can dance way better than you can, beacue they are cooler than you will ever be!
" wow wootie you can really cut the rug!"
από rosebud bunny 22 Φεβρουάριος 2008


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As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In this article, let's take a look at Seadrill's (NYSE:SDRL) valuation.
But first, a little background. At Valuentum, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index, which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.
If a firm is undervalued both on a discounted cash-flow and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. Seadrill posts a VBI score of 6 on our scale, reflecting our 'fairly valued' DCF assessment of the firm, its unattractive relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals. We compare Seadrill to peers Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), Cameron International (NYSE:CAM), and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL). We prefer firms that register a 9 or 10 on our scale, so Seadrill doesn't quite make the cut.
Our Report on Seadrill
Investment Considerations
Investment Highlights
• Seadrill scores fairly well on our business quality matrix. The firm has put up solid economic returns for shareholders during the past few years with relatively low volatility in its operating results. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 13.8% during the past three years.
• Seadrill is a leading offshore deepwater drilling company. The company operates a versatile fleet of more than 60 units that comprises drillships, jack-up rigs, semi-submersible rigs and tender rigs.
• Seadrill has among the most modern fleet of all the offshore drillers and has a diverse asset base. The company expects to achieve 50% growth in annualized EBITDA by 2015 from 2012 levels. Contract backlog remains robust and has roughly doubled from 2010 levels.
• Although we think there may be a better time to dabble in the firm's shares based on our DCF process, the firm's stock has outperformed the market benchmark during the past quarter, indicating increased investor interest in the company.
• Though Seadrill boasts a hefty payout, we don't think its dividend is safe over the long haul on the basis of our Valuentum Dividend Cushion measure (which considers its hefty debt load). We're not saying the dividend is going to get cut at this time, but as was displayed in the financial crisis, the firm's over-leverage can be a recipe for disaster (when shares dropped from nearly $37 to $6 and change). When it comes to dividend growth investing, we don't ignore the capital risks.
Business Quality
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (OTC:WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Seadrill's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 13.8%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 9.1%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of GOOD. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Seadrill's free cash flow margin has averaged about -6.5% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively WEAK. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. At Seadrill, cash flow from operations increased about 26% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 86% over the same time period.
Valuation Analysis
Our discounted cash flow model indicates that Seadrill's shares are worth between $35-$57 each. Why such the large range? Click here. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's MEDIUM ValueRisk™ rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $46 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 12.6 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 13.9 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 7.6% during the next five years, a pace that is lower than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 9%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 40.9%, which is above Seadrill's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 3.2% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Seadrill, we use a 9.1% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $46 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Seadrill. We think the firm is attractive below $35 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $57 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate Seadrill's fair value at this point in time to be about $46 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of Seadrill's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $49 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $46 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


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July 12, 2011
On November 28, 2011, in Washington, DC, the Center for Juvenile Justice Reform at Georgetown University's Public Policy Institute will hold its Juvenile Justice and Child Welfare: Multi-System Integration Certificate Program for Private Sector Leaders.
Designed for current and future leaders of private organizations, this week-long program will highlight multi-system reform efforts related to crossover youth, improve private organizations' ability to serve these youth, provide leaders with an opportunity to develop collaborative leadership skills, and create a mutually supportive network of individuals across the country committed to systems improvement.
The application deadline is July 27, 2011.
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First Look: Colin Farrell in Neil Jordan's New Film Ondine
I know that not everyone is the biggest fan of Colin Farrell, but I think he redeemed himself a bit with In Bruges last year. Farrell next stars in a few upcoming films, including in Terry Gilliam's The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus as well as Danis Tanovic's Triage. He also stars in Neil Jordan's Ondine, described as a "lyrical modern fairy tale" about an Irish fisherman who finds what he believes to be a mermaid in his net one day. A few brand new photos from the film appeared in my email today and they're worth checking out, even if you don't like Colin Farrell much, as they feature a beautiful Polish actress named Alicja Bachleda.
› Posted August 11 in First Look, Photos, TIFF 09 | Comments
Jason Reitman's Up in the Air Premiering at the Toronto Film Fest
I'm not going to lie - I am probably more excited for Jason Reitman's Up in the Air than I am any other movie the rest of this year. I love Jason Reitman, I love the cast, I love the story, everything about it sounds amazing. I even read the script earlier this year and it was brilliant. The Toronto International Film Festival has just announced another batch of eight new films that are in their line-up (see indieWIRE for more) and Up in the Air is one of them. This isn't too surprising, as we expected Up in the Air to premiere there, considering Reitman was born in Montreal and TIFF loves Canadian filmmakers (and Juno debuted there).
› Posted July 30 in Indies, Movie News, TIFF 09 | Comments
Toronto's 2009 Midnight Madness Line-Up Announced
The Toronto International Film Festival announces its complete 22nd Midnight Madness programme, a Festival favourite drawing legions of devoted fans for manic midnight screenings of wild and wicked films for the witching hour. Midnight Madness continues to offer films that you might not expect in a festival context, an eccentric mix of the weird and the wonderful, and this year's features include crazed animation, chick fights, zombies, vampires, a possessed cheerleader, exhilarating martial arts and more! Another new batch of titles for Toronto were announced a few weeks ago and there are a few more sections still left to go.
New Batch of 2009 Toronto International Film Festival Titles
The Toronto International Film Festival has announced three Gala Presentations and nineteen Special Presentations as part of the lineup at this year's Festival, running September 10th to 19th in Toronto, ON, in Canada. Yet another great year of festival films! Readers of this site know that September is festival month and I'm planning to again tour from Telluride to Toronto to Austin for a month of festival madness. Toronto is easily the biggest of the fests during that tour and always has an incredible line-up. They've announced a new batch of titles including the Opening Night film: Jon Amiel's Creation (watch the trailer). So read on!
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Family History: Our children, their ancestors
When the genealogy "bug" hits us, we just can't help ourselves. We want to search deeper into our heritage.
It's disappointing when some family members don't share our ancestor interest. We want them to ask questions and learn about our shared family history.
A great way to start is with our children and grandchildren.
Children are curious about black-and-white photos, strange names, and seeing a family tree filled with images of people they may or may not know. Most importantly, they ask questions - lots of questions!
Children love listening to stories, so reading to them about the family is a great way to grab their interest and demonstrate that they are part of a grander history. Sharing family moments creates a stronger family bond, as well as a chance to share ancestral information.
Do you share family stories with your children and grandchildren? How do you pass on your unique heritage to the younger generations? Let us know in the comments below.
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Top Definition
A day in which a band, musician or artist invites a fan or fans to join them in a relaxed or intimate environment.
Eg. competitions such as "win a day with the band" or "Chill in the hotel room before/after the show" are all examples of Fan Day
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Born in 1978, Ryoichi Tsunekawa had an interest in art and graphic design since he was a child. While enrolled in the graduate program for architecture at Nagoya University, he decided to devote his free time to designing type. Following school and finding work as an architect and engineer, he returned to his passion for type and established his own digital foundry, Flat-It, in 2005. His typefaces have quickly found their way into the work of designers around the world.
Ryoichi Tsunekawa has contributed 102 products
Font Designer Ranking: 36
Highest Rank Achieved: 8
Highest Rank Achieved: 8


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Kate Upton modeled for Sports Illustrated's Swimsuit Edition. She might be dating Kanye West.
Who cares—she does the Dougie!
The 18-year-old beauty was caught on tape doing the Dougie at a Clippers game this weekend. And can you blame her? Other than watching Blake Griffin, what else is there to get excited about at a Clippers game?
But it got us to thinking—what are some of the best Dougies from the world of sports?
On the following slides, we've compiled the best sports-themed Dougie action caught on film. You will laugh, you will cry and you will occasionally ask, "Why?"
Let us teach you how to Dougie.


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MARGARET ANDERSON OF YARMOUTH, Maine, gave birth to her son, Richard, on Friday. On Saturday she received a card from her friend and neighbor, Kenneth Hathaway, congratulating her on the new arrival. Between those two days, though, a few things happened: World War II, Elvis, Vietnam—more than half of the 20th century, in fact. Anderson, now 84 and living in a Yarmouth nursing home, got Hathaway's card on Feb. 8, 1992. It was postmarked Feb. 8, 1937—three days after she had given birth to her son.
Anderson found the yellowed envelope sitting on a bedside table when she returned from a game of beano (a down east version of bingo) to her room at the Coastal Manor home in the midafternoon. "I wondered who could have sent it," she says. When she opened it and found the congratulatory message and the signature, she says, "it confused me at first." No wonder. Kenneth Hathaway had been dead for more than a decade, and Anderson's son, Richard, died three years ago, at age 52.
Ron Smith, the carrier who delivered the note, is also at a loss. He says he returned from his route one afternoon and found the envelope on his desk. "It was addressed to some hospital I never heard of," he says, "but I recognized Maggie's name and put it aside to deliver the next day." Curiously, the hospital where Anderson had her child has since been converted into the Coastal Manor nursing home, where she presently lives. Smith says he never noticed the postmark (the three-cent stamp had been removed).
Smith's boss, postmaster Dan Perry, doesn't think the card was "in the mail stream" all these years. The prevailing theory at the post office, he says, is that the letter was delivered, to someone, years ago, and was recently rediscovered and taken to the post office.
"I don't have the least idea where it's been all these years," says Margaret Anderson.
Mail carrier Smith has the perfect alibi. "It wasn't my fault," he says. "I've only worked here 13 years."
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updated 05/11/1992 AT 01:00 AM EDT
•originally published 05/11/1992 AT 01:00 AM EDT


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Jewelry for You! How to Make Handmade Beaded Bracelets and Necklaces
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Jasper Donut Necklace
By: Selina Shehan for Rings & Things
We are adding the craft to your Craft Projects.
The project was added to your Craft Projects.
Click here to view your Craft Projects.
This beautiful beaded necklace features a prominent gemstone trillion donut. The four colors of bead in the stand of the necklace pick up on the colors in the donut. For more information on Rings & Things and where you can find the materials for this project see Rings & Things profile page. For another great donut necklace, see the Arizone Summers Necklace.
Find this project and 45 other beading craft projects in the Beautiful Beads eBook.
- 1 #21-340-07-049 40mm gemstone trillion donut, poppy jasper
- 22 #21-886-049 6mm round gemstone beads, poppy jasper
- 89 #05-301-04-33 4mm Swarovski® crystal faceted bicones, siam/aurora borealis 2x
- 90 #05-301-04-20 4mm Swarovski crystal faceted bicones, siam
- 90 #05-000-03-24 3mm Swarovski faceted round crystals, jet
- 2 #41-251-3 Size 1 crimp beads, silver plated
- 2 #48-583 3mm crimp covers, sterling silver
- 1 #39-550-A Interlock toggle clasp, sterling silver
- 40" #61-738-49-21 0.024" 49-strand, Beadalon®, silver plated
- Round-nose pliers
- side cutters and/or side flush
- Cut two 20" strands of Beadalon.
- String the donut onto one strand and fold the Beadalon in half so the donut sits in the center of the strand.
- String twelve 4mm bicones onto each end of the strand, alternating colors.
- Run both strands through a 6mm round gemstone bead and pull tight to hang the donut from the strand.
- Choose one side of the strand and string the following pattern: 4mm siam/aurora borealis 2x, 4mm siam, 3mm jet, 4mm siam, 4mm siam/aurora borealis 2x, 4mm siam, 3mm jet, 4mm siam, 4mm siam/aurora borealis 2x, 6mm round gemstone. Repeat this pattern four more times.
- On the remaining strand, string the following: 3mm jet, 4mm siam, 3mm jet, 4mm siam, 3mm jet, 6mm round gemstone.
- Then, repeat the following pattern five times: 3mm jet, 4mm siam, two 3mm jet, 4mm siam/aurora borealis 2x, two 3mm jet, 4mm siam, 3mm jet, 6mm round gemstone.
- Instead of stringing the final 6mm gemstone round at the end of the fifth pattern set, run the Beadalon through the 6mm gemstone round from the other strand.
- Hold the two strands together and slide on a crimp bead, two 3mm jet crystals, one end of the toggle clasp, and two more 3mm jet.
- Push the two strands back through the crimp bead, pull until snug (but leaving enough room for flexibility) and crimp.
- Trim excess Beadalon and cover with a crimp cover.
- Repeat steps 2 – 11 with the second 20" strand of Beadalon.
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Kelley Ann Kepes
Not available
Bachelor's Degree, University of Illinois
Not available
On the Record
What experiences do you have that make you a good candidate for office?
Nearly 20 years of active volunteerism for this community.
What are your top two or three priorities if elected?
Maintain fiscal responsibility. Increase the number of community volunteers and the tasks they do. Work on downtown revitalization.
Would you support freezing your taxing district's levy until housing prices rebound? Why or why not?
No. Freezing the levy doesn't solve the problem. A levy is the total dollars a taxing district will receive from property taxes. Freezing the rate or percentage a taxing district receives on assessed value would more accurately address the problem. The amount a taxing district receives would be directly tied to total assessed evaluations. As property values increase so would the amount the taxing district receives. As property values decrease the amount the taxing district receives would also decreases. The taxing district would then be subject to the same factors as its citizens. Current Illinois state law does not allow this.
What one decision by the village board do you most disagree with and why?
My voting record is a matter of public record. On all major decisions I state my opinion and give supporting reasoning. In a democracy, sometimes the path I see as best prevails, sometimes it does not. The role of the village board is to work together effectively to plan for the future. Dwelling on past disagreements does not benefit this aim.
What was the biggest accomplishment of the board in the past year?
I am most proud of maintaining our continued financial security this past year as we have for every year of our existence.
Why should voters elect you to office?
My experience and understanding of the laws governing municipalities make me an asset to the board.
Kepes's Current Race
Daniel Bushroe
Michael Defabio
Kelley Ann Kepes
Jason Meyer
Other Local Races
Barrington Hills Village Board
Fritz Gohl
Colleen Konicek Hannigan
Michael Harrington
Kelly Mazeski
David Stieper
Mark Beeson
Keith Johns
Ed McGinty
Ken Nitz
Josh Rohde
Anthony Sciarrone
Terra Jensen
Alan Zielinski
Tina Asmus
Ryan Weihofen
Grafton Township Highway Commissioner
Timothy Hoeft
Tom Poznanski


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, Monday 08/20/2007, 5:23pm
For wealthy backers of publicly-funded private school vouchers, Utah has been a crucial battleground. Last year, Amway heir (and 2006 candidate for governor of Michigan) Dick DeVos and others poured a hundreds of thousands of dollars of "seed money" into a Utah PAC, Parents for Choice in Education, which set about electing state legislators who would support a voucher plan. While the group has used heavy-handed tactics before – invoking the specter of "illegal aliens" during last year's campaign – it's hit a new low with a recent... MORE >
, Friday 12/01/2006, 3:55pm
Hoping to be the biggest threat to American automobile manufacturers since the arrival of large numbers of low-priced Japanese cars in the 1980s, the American Family Association, a virulently anti-gay group, has marshaled a large portion of its resources over the last two years attempting to organize its constituents to boycott the Ford Motor Company over its marketing to gays and lesbians. While a planned boycott one year ago was cancelled, AFA almost immediately reconsidered – claiming the automaker had "reneged" on some kind of "agreements"... MORE >
, Monday 09/25/2006, 4:46pm
Last week, gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos sent his campaign strategists scrambling when he told reporters that he believes creationism, in the guise of "intelligent design," should be taught as science in Michigan's public schools. Almost immediately the DeVos campaign starting walking back his comments with this statement: "I've always believed that our children should be provided with more knowledge, not less. Lots of intelligent people can disagree about the origins of life. In the end, I believe in our system of local control. Local school boards should have the opportunity to offer... MORE >
, Tuesday 06/27/2006, 2:39pm
The Salt Lake Tribune reports that "most of the cash" injected into Utah's political system by Parents for Choice in Education "comes from big-business donors outside the state - including the Wal-Mart heirs and founders of multilevel marketing giant Amway." Once a low-budget operation, the PAC received $255,000 in "seed money" from Amway heirs Dick and Betsy DeVos and their Michigan-based group, All Children Matter, and more high-profile donors followed. All Children Matter Director Greg Brock says along with Florida, Louisiana, Ohio... MORE >
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MUSKEGON COUNTY, MI – The apparent start to a massive accident on U.S. 31 Thursday morning was caught on camera as a cattle trailer slides along the highway, nearly striking a tow truck and its driver standing alongside the road.
The crash, involving 40 vehicles, closed southbound U.S. 31 for a time at the White Lake Drive on-ramp near Lakewood Club. Southbound traffic was detoured south to the next southbound on-ramp off Russell Road, several miles south.
The pileup began between 9:30 and 9:45 a.m. at a spot roughly one-quarter to one-half mile south of White Lake Drive.
Andrew Heykoop, operations manager for Eagle Towing, said he and his staff faced a close call. They were already on the scene assisting other motorists with vehicles that had previously slid off the road when the pileup occurred.
Heykoop said he saw a semitrailer and a truck pulling a cattle trailer strike each other which caused the semi to strike a Michigan State Police vehicle.
The incident set off the chain reaction that led to the pileup, he said.
The video captured on a dash cam from the tow trucks parked along the road shows Heykoop running to the wood line along the highway and the trailer nearly striking the tow truck head on.
No major injuries were reported, according to police officials. A Muskegon County Sheriff's Office deputy, Scott Foster, sustained relatively minor injuries in the incident.
Muskegon County Sheiriff Dean Roesler said Foster suffered a concussion and cuts on the side of his head. He was treated and released following treatment, he said.
A Michigan State Police vehicle was also struck during the same incident.
Heather Lynn Peters covers police and fire, and writes a statewide food column, The Spunky Kitchen, for MLive/Muskegon Chronicle. Email her at email@example.com and follow her on Twitter @HLPNEWS.


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Hi! My name is Toby
I am Domestic Shorthair from Reno, NV
Nicknames: Tobycat
Age: 6 years old
Gender: M
Coat: short haired
Education: He is extremely athletic but klutzy. We leap high, pull off molding, turn the printer off and on. An early morning alarm clock.
My favorite tricks and treats are: Only has learn to come to me when I click him. and Any food, especially treats.
Where I hang out: Anywhere looking out the window.
My favorite grubs: He likes to eat almost anything.
My pet peeves: Not getting his way. Not being allowed on the kitchen counters.
What I love about my owners: Constant attention and playing with my fishing pole.
My cat hobbies: Have me play with him with his fishing pole.
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I got him from Craig's List. He was rescued from the streets. We adopted him because his rescuer could not keep him. All of the ones I had been looking at at the Humane Society and SPCA has been adopted out when we back together to look at them.
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Sal DiCiccio's efforts as a councilman have earned him a variety of labels among his constituents, from tireless protector of taxpayer money to brash champion of conservative ideals and everything in between.
They have also earned our appreciation. DiCiccio is our pick to be re-elected to represent District 6, because both the council and our city benefit from his crusades, especially his efforts to overhaul Phoenix's broken pension system.
DiCiccio was the first on the council to recognize the gravity of the city's pension problem, and he has been unquestionably the most vociferous in advocating for its aggressive reform.
We're glad he has. The city's pension and compensation plans are unsustainable, and the unchecked influence of city unions threatens to further strain an already bloated bureaucratic budget. There's been no watchdog more persistent and no voice more clear on these issues than DiCiccio.
For his efforts, he's been vilified by local unions, which have poured money into supporting challenger Karlene Keogh Parks in an effort to oust the greatest threat on the council to their soaring pension plans. DiCiccio's position on these unions isn't so much political as it is pragmatic, however, and taxpayers would benefit from the policies he hopes to install.
Keogh Parks has the support of Mayor Greg Stanton, elected in 2011 with substantial union support. Keogh Parks, who helped lead Stanton's transition team, has an impressive history of civic involvement, and her greatest asset might be her unabashed love for her city. In a discussion with The Republic's editorial board, she beamed while speaking of her experience as campaign manager for former Mayor Margaret Hance.
But what Phoenix needs now is tough love, and that's what DiCiccio brings to the table.
Yes, he has developed a well-earned reputation as a firebrand — a slow burn he needlessly stoked this spring in opposing the city's eminently reasonable expansion of its anti-discrimination ordinance. On financial issues, however, he is pushing Phoenix in the right direction, often through a willingness and ability to work collaboratively with his peers.
He co-chaired an economic task force with Tom Simplot and drastically reduced the amount of red tape for those starting small businesses. He worked with Vice Mayor Bill Gates to craft the recently passed ethics policy, the first of its kind for Phoenix politicians. And for all his disagreements with Stanton, he insists he holds the mayor, if not his policies, in high esteem.
Today's Phoenix City Council needs a budget hawk far more than it does a near-automatic second vote for Stanton's positions. It needs Sal DiCiccio, whom we recommend for another full term.


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Bayview farmers market is ready to open on Saturday
The South Whidbey farmers market season starts Saturday when the Bayview Farmers Market opens for the 2010 season at Bayview Corner.
Music will be offered the first three weeks of each month. Chef's demonstrations and other entertainment will be featured on the fourth week.
Saturday's music will be original and cover songs by Matt Schmiesing, singing vocals and playing keyboard and guitar.
For the third year, the market's slogan will be "Locavores Can Find It at Bayview Farmers Market." The slogan was picked to highlight the emphasis on locally raised farm products, and locally produced products and artisan crafts.
The market is a member of the Washington State Farmers Market Association, and this year more than 50 vendors will offer local produce and other farm products, baked goods (including breads, pies, muffins and bars), hot foods and artisan crafts. As the weather warms, more produce — including Washington berries — will be featured. A list of all vendors and more information about the market can be found at the market Web site at www.bayviewfarmers
The market is open from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. Saturdays through
Oct. 30.
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Skip to comments.Talabani Kurdish Tribesmen Spotted Qusay and Uday En Route to Syria (Gunfight Details) [DEBKA]
Posted on 07/22/2003 5:15:02 PM PDT by ewing
The twin brothers of terror were turned in by an Iraqi Used Car Salesman-lol!
Please keep your personal problems to yourself.
Talabanis Kurdish Tribesmen Spotted Qusay, His Son Mustafa and Uday Hussein en Route to or from Syria
DEBKAfile World Exclusive
July 23, 2003, 1:16 AM (GMT+02:00)
Their death leaves Saddam without successor
Late Sunday night, July 20 - or early Monday morning - Qusay Hussein, his 14-year old son Mustafa and his brother Uday arrived at the spacious villa estate of their fathers cousin three times removed in the northeastern al Falah district of Mosul.
Qusay habitually took his teenage son everywhere to keep him safe for the succession, in case something happened to Saddam or himself. They were on their way to or from Syria. That cousin, Marwan Zeidan of the Abu Nasser tribe, is one of Mosuls richest and most colorful figures. He owns the biggest clay brick factory in town and the largest used car agency in the region. Unlike other Iraqi towns, where the different communities live in separate neighborhoods, Mosul is mixed; Sunnis, Arabs, Kurds and Turkemen live cheek by jowl on the same streets as neighbors.
This population admixture was the cause of the downfall of Udai and Qusai Hussein.
The Al Falah district is shared by Sunnis and Kurds. Zeidans villa is surrounded by Kurdish families loyal to Jalal Talabani, head of the Kurdish Patriotic Union, the PUK, and a member of the new 25-man Iraqi governing council.
These neighbors were the first to catch sight of Saddams sons when they arrived at the villa.
According to DEBKAfiles intelligence sources, a group went running to their leaders nearest military headquarters to bring him the news in person. Talabani, who also happens to rent one of the Saddam familys villas in Salman Pak, went straight off to US administration offices in Baghdad, where deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfovitz is presently based for his weeks stay in Iraq. The Kurdish leader and US military chiefs conferred and decided that PUK intelligence would go ahead and secretly surround the Zeidan villa and bar it to both ingress and egress, also installing sensors and eavesdropping devices. The Kurdish agents were instructed to prepare the site for the US special forces to come in by helicopter and seize the building and Saddams two sons.
DEBKAfiles military sources report that in retrospect these careful advance arrangements were seen to be superfluous. The two brothers and the teenager were inside the villa with only a single bodyguard. The circle of people whom they trusted had apparently shrunk to almost nil. Saddam may be in the same boat. They ventured into a district which far from being out of the way is lively and crowded. This signified that they had experienced some unexpected holdup and been forced to break their journey to or from the Syrian border only 35 miles away at the home of their fathers cousin.
According to our sources, their visit was unexpected. Zeidan, his wife and 19-year old son were arrested after the US raid on their home. The American-Kurdish command decided to occupy the houses around the target villa before the main assault. A US special force of some 200 commandos landed early Tuesday, July 22, and opened fire on the villa. The three Husseins and their bodyguard went down shooting, overwhelmed by US ground fire and helicopter-fired missiles. The US commander waited two or three hours before giving the order to storm the property in case more people were hiding in cellars or outhouses or trying to escape through hidden exits. Pilot-less Predator drones were lofted to survey the property from all sides. However when the troops went in, they found no one but the charred, bullet-riddled bodies of Saddams two sons, his grandson and their bodyguard.
Talabanis Kurdish followers will no doubt claim the $30 million bounty promised by the US government for the capture of the two sons of the deposed ruler.
Saddam himself still eludes capture along with his cached weapons of mass destruction. According to DEBKAfiles intelligence sources, President George W. Bush and British prime minister Tony Blair are in the process of assembling a mass of material evidence of this arsenal to be released soon.
Either it's a fantasy, or Little Satan's intel is in tight with the Kurds.
Sounds pretty legit to me. Though Debka runs from some prescient and accurate inside information to fantasies about Russian ICBM's in the Afghan Hindu-Kush. A mixed bag - to say the least.
Hope it's true, but I doubt the part about the list.
Debka makes up stuff that is crazy, and it makes up stuff that is plausible. That is the "mixed bag."
I dunno, but you can sure rent an awful lot of them for that kind of money.
If we had a list like that I would think that we would keep it a secret so we could quietly round those guys up. By announcing the existence of such a list the results will be the same whether or not we actually have it the bad guys will try to bolt. Of course that may be the main idea of the information release.
Offer Priceline $200 for a round trip to Baghdad. I've always fancied a bit of bounty-hunting.
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- The Call Of Cthulhu - The H.P. Lovecraft Preservation Society, a group of dauntless fans that created the brilliant, Cthulhu-themed musical, A Shoggoth On The Roof, have created the ultimate fan film, an incredible tribute to the writer whose work seeded modern horror favorites like Re-Animator and From Beyond. Shot like a 1920's era silent film, the 47-minute feature is technically amazing, shot (in black-and-white), lit and performed like an authentic film of the period would have been (although it would have horrified people of the time right into Arkham Sanitarium.) Considered Lovecraft's most famous story, the story of a man who inherits a collection of documents detailing the ghastly Cthulhu Cult, it is very faithfully adapted, not to mention super-efficient. The title cards are in the viewer's choice of an astonishing 24 different languages, and the lush, symphonic score can be played in hi-fi and the kitschy-fun, lo-fi "Mythoscope". A skillful build and an extremely satisfying payoff (think creature design King Kong '33 style) add up to one of the smartest horror films of recent memory.
- Delicatessen - Before charming audiences with Amélie, Jean-Pierre Jeunet was
partnered with Marc Caro, and films like The City Of Lost Children and this
fellow dark treat resulted. Long absent from DVD shelves, it concerns an apartment building, post-apocalypse, in which
the landlord goes all Sweeney Todd
in an effort to feed his tenants. Co-producer and Monty Python
alum Terry Gilliam contributed his warped sensibilities, which allowed
these toxic twins to buff their minor cult masterpiece with a distinctive Brazil wax.
- The Family Stone - Thomas Bezucha's sweet ensemble piece is a Trojan horse of sorts. With a cast that includes Diane Keaton, Sarah Jessica Parker, Luke Wilson, Rachel McAdams, Dermot Mulroney, Claire Danes and Craig T. Nelson, one would expect wacky non-stop holiday hijinks, in that the lot of them are skilled comic actors. Yes, this portrait of a changing family of academic Bohemians has its funny moments (with the physical comedy feeling a bit forced), but at its heart is a whole lot of well-metered, hanky-needin' Terms of Endearment grade human drama. Bezucha, who drew indirectly from his own college town experience with his own family in Amherst, Mass., gives his leads the kinds of dramatic arcs that truly test their mettle (not that there was any doubt as to whether or not linchpin Keaton could.) For the most part, they all pull it off, connecting with us as the reach out to each other, including the usually by-the-numbers Mulroney, with all his cryptic appeal. Bezucha's subtleness works, from a seemingly minor but purposeful affectation to creating the Stones' family home with such care and lived-in detail. The flawed but loving family may hit a little too close to home, especially during this already depressing time of the year, but humanity never takes a holiday, and this movie is a bittersweet reminder of that.
- Flight 93 - While making an objective movie about September 11, 2001 may still be a questionable effort, the effect of this A&E event is still undeniably powerful. It forensically reconstructs and dramatizes a likely scenario of United Flight 93, the airliner that went down in a Pennsylvania field (and not into one of its two likely targets: The U.S. Capitol or The White House). Director Peter Markle and writer Nevin Schreiner extrapolate judiciously from telephone conversations that some of the roughly 40 passengers had with people on the ground during the plane's hijacking by bin Laden-backed Muslimfundamentalists. Markle and Schreiner use their TV movie sensibilities to convey the tragedy of the day and the heroics of Flight 93's doomed crew without being exploitative. Not to be confused with Paul Greengrass's superior, just-released United 93.
- Hoodwinked - Proving that Pixar is still the one to beat is this CGI comedy from the former Disney allies of the newly formed Weinstein Company. It is the story of Little Red Riding Hood told from four very different perspectives, with a lot of attention paid to continuity in cleverly weaving all four tales together, and a script, while somewhat schizophrenic (thanks to three directors), that does not let up. The voice talent is solid, and includes former Disney princess Anne Hathaway as Red, Family Guy staple Patrick Warburton as the very Fletch-like Wolf and Glenn Close as Granny. The songs, save for a riotous number by a mountain goat (Benjy Gaither) whose curse dictates that he sing all his dialogue, are forgettable, but the movie's biggest crime is its overwhelmingly cheap look. The character designs are uninspired, and the humans look like cumbersome, Plasticine Thunderbirds puppets. The motion is very mechanical, and even makes the now-primitive looking Toy Story seem fluid and natural by comparison.
- Last Holiday - Queen Latifah's brand of comedy in turkeys like Taxi and Bringing Down The House has been disappointingly broad, considering her vulnerable Everygirl charm, which thankfully is on full display in this remake of the 1950 British gem. Latifah plays a retail clerk who learns she has three weeks to live and takes a trip to Czechoslovakia where she lives it up on her life savings. Some Being There style misperceptions make her the center of speculation as she comes to terms with her unlived life, which would have been far more precious if the ending was not a total fraud.
- 24 Hours On Craigslist - Michael Ferris Gibson's super low-budget documentary was a pretty lofty undertaking -- choose an engaging cross-section of the (San Francisco Bay Area) folks who post on the legendary Internet bulletin board and dispatch a camera crew to spend a day with each of them. The result is mixed, from quirky and interesting to monotonous and irrelevant. He conveys the phenomenon adequately, even though it occasionally becomes evident that he is trying to make boring weirdos seem less so.
categories Features, Dvds, Movies, Columns, New Releases, Cinematical


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NCAA Bball
Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks Basketball
This is the Jayhawks first game back at Allen Fieldhouse since their loss to Oklahoma State, so considering how rarely they lose at home, and the likelihood of losing two straight at home, makes this a tough win for the Wildcats. Kansas State almost got the upset on their home court against Kansas, so they are capable of playing with the Jayhawks. If the Wildcats defense can keep the score down and force turnovers, they will give themselves the best chance, but they just might have to wait until next year to get that elusive win over Kansas.
Venue Information
- Allen Fieldhouse
- 1700 Naismith Dr
- Lawrence KS 66044
More Details
Released - Monday, February 11 , 2013 at 9:00 PM Local Time
Official Website
TV Network - ESPN
Official Website
TV Network - ESPN


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Stress, Anxiety, Causes and Symptoms
Stress, illness of the modern age
Most people in the modern world live under increased stress and as a consequence of this way of living organism adapts to new conditions. However, if the stress lasts too long or becomes too strong, there is the development of mental and physical illnesses. The accelerated pace of life and many responsibilities do impose the constant presence of anxiety and tension. As a result of the increased mental strain is developed anxiety, irritability and fear (anxiety). Rare are the moments in which modern people can afford to calm, relax, and sometimes we should stop and rest. Pupils, students, athletes, employees and others often have the need for humility and reducing nervous tension while maintaining focus and composure.
All of sedative drugs, in addition to the calming influence, lead to sleep and thus reduce the concentration.
Herbs can be safely use to calm the irritated states, without fear of developing addiction. Active ingredients in herbal medicines are not aggressive and do not lead to the formation of habits, which is their primary advantage over the sedatives.
Natural Remedies for calming
Valerian is used for general anxiety and nervousness, the excitement, the insomnia that occurs as a result of nervousness, the heart problems followed by palpitations and a sense of fear.
Hawthorn is used to relieve the heart by expanding blood vessels and the relief of the nervous system. It is especially suitable for people who have a heart disease or a weakened heart.
Lemon balm is used in increased nervous tension and exhaustion. Kava-kava is a folk remedy for anxiety and insomnia in the Pacific Islands. It's specific in that it calms nervous tension, and does not lead to sleep, ie. not reduced mental capacity, suitable for students, business people, professionals.
Lavender shows soothing properties and can be used as a tea or essential oil and thanks to the pleasant scent creates a special atmosphere.
Chamomile tea is an old and tested tonic to relieve the tension and relaxation.
Bad effects of sedatives
Sedatives are drugs that easily can lead to addictiveness and are not harmless, and it is believed that they can be a temporary solution for insomnia.
Insomnia is actually a symptom of other problems, mainly emotional or psychological.
The only ethical solution is to remove the cause of insomnia.
So, every irrational and long-term intake of hypnotics is not recommended because of the great opportunities for developing addiction and complicating the problem. Hypnotics make it possible to shorten the time needed to introduce the dream and to prolong the duration of sleep, but such dream is often not of adequate quality. Namely, they reduce REM sleep where the brain is most restful.
There is a growing use of anxiolytics and hypnotics in the modern world of stress.We need to learn to control and reduce the effects of stress, and medications should not be a permanent solution, but temporary help in difficult situations.
Valerian, the most popular herbal medicine for sedation in Europe
Lately, more and more use of herbal preparations as a major advantage of not having chance to develop addiction on the drugs and tolerance to the administered dose.
Valerian is the most popular herbal medicine for sedation in Europe.
Thanks to its effect on reducing tension, stress, anxiety, irritability, and as it doesn't cause addiction is making a comeback in use.
Valerian is effective in the treatment of everyday problems such as mental tension, irritability, concentration difficulties (eg stage fright before the exam), insomnia, fear, anxiety, anguish.
Nowadays most people at least once tasted life under the neurosis, and so many people live permanently under such conditions.
In this case, the use of drugs often seems justified, but without thinking about long-term consequences of taking sedative drugs and the possibility of creating addiction.
This group of drugs is not harmless, and any uncritical and long-term use poses a risk to health. Tolerance to the administered dose, causes the person has to take larger and larger amounts, as well as addiction that is developed, the main disadvantages so as sedatives, anxiolytics, and one type of drug.
Long-term stress leads to a need for long-term use of anxiolytics, which leads to addiction in most cases.
Natural remedies that lead to humility, and without creating dependency:
– Restlessness, irritability, anxiety, nervous tension – Valerian, lemon balm, hawthorn
– Anxiety, fatigue, anxiety, apprehension – kava-kava
– Relaxation, calming, insomnia – lavender essential oil in baths or as aromatherapy, chamomile tea, lemon balm
– Varies with no sleep (while maintaining a good concentration for drivers, staff, students) – kava-kava, hawthorn


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CDB Seminars
All Seminars are held in the Gavin De Beer Lecture Theatre, Anatomy Building, Thursday 1-2pm (unless otherwise stated)
All welcome.
The Seminar series will resume in September. Please check back for details.
Welcome to the Lincoln Lab Research Page
Contact Details:
UCL Research Department of Cell and Developmental
University College London
Tel. +44 (0)20 7679-0479 (Int. 30479) - Office
Tel. +44 (0)20 7679-4317 (Int. 34317) - Lab
Fax. +44 (0)20 7679-2091
E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Research Interests
Mechanisms Underlying Autonomic Neuropathy in Diabetes
Damage to the nervous system, including autonomic nerves supplying the internal organs and blood vessels, can occur as a complication of diabetes mellitus. Such damage is thought to contribute to symptoms such as postural hypo- tension, disordered gut motility and impotence in diabetic patients. Using an animal model, we have demonstrated changes in autonomic nerves in the cardiovascular, gastro- intestinal and urogenital systems. However, it is clear that not all autonomic nerves are affected in the same way in diabetes. Some nerves undergo degeneration, some have reduced levels of neurotransmitters and some appear to be largely unaffected. In order to find an explanation for this we are investigating possible mechanisms involved in causing nerve damage.
Effect of diabetes on sympathetic neurons in the coeliac ganglion: Note the increase in green immunofluorescence staining tyrosine hydroxylase in the neurons in diabetes. It is also easier to see green fluorescent axons in the diabetic tissue and they appear swollen a characteristic known as neuronal axonal dystrophy. Sympathetic neurons of the superior cervical ganglion do NOT undergo such degenerative changes in diabetes
One factor of particular interest is oxidative stress induced by high levels of glucose in diabetes. Oxidative stress is a condition where there is an increase within cells of certain reactive molecules containing oxygen. These can then react with components of cells, including nerves, and cause damage. Nerves do have defence mechanisms against oxidative stress but they do not necessarily work to the same extent in different populations. Therefore, it is possible that autonomic nerves with a greater level of defence against oxidative stress may be able to resist the effects of diabetes while others with low levels of defence will be particularly susceptible to degenerative changes.
We are investigating the presence of oxidative stress and the status of defence mechanisms in a variety of autonomic nerves supplying the cardiovascular, gastrointestinal and urogenital systems that have been identified according to their neurotransmitter content. We are also looking at the changes that occur in diabetes and investigating the potential of various agents that can act against oxidative stress to prevent or even reverse autonomic nerve damage once it has occurred.
|Adult sympathetic neurons can be dissociated and maintained in culture where they grow neurites. The left hand panel shows a neuron grown under control conditions and stained for a general neuronal marker that reveals the cell body and fine beaded neurites fluorescing red. In the right hand panel TUNEL can be demonstrated in the nucleus of the neuron (yellow fluorescence) indicating that the neuron is undergoing apoptotic cell death. TUNEL staining increases in neurons exposed to high levels of glucose and oxidative stress. This provides an in vitro model with which to investigate the mechanisms underlying autonomic neuropathy in diabetes and to screen potential therapeutic agents
Collaborative Project with Dr David Becker
Impaired wound healing in diabetes and its treatment
Diminished sensation in the extremities due to neuropathy in diabetes can lead to the development of foot ulcers. Diabetes also impairs wound healing leading to the presence of chronic wounds prone to infection. This condition is the major cause of non-traumatic amputation in humans. Dr. David Becker is researching into the role of connexin proteins in gap junctions in the wound healing process. In collaboration we are investigating how diabetes affects the expression of specific connexins in intact skin and how it affects the dynamic changes in connexin expression that occur during the wound healing process. The aim of the research is also to examine whether manipulation of connexin expression which is known to increase the rate of wound healing under normal conditions can be used to improve wound healing in diabetes.
Selected references
- Shotton, H.R., Clarke, S. & Lincoln, J. (2003) The effectiveness of treatments of diabetic autonomic neuropathy is not the same in autonomic nerves supplying different organs. Diabetes, 52: 157-164.
- Shotton, H.R., Broadbent, S. & Lincoln, J. (2004) Prevention and partial reversal of diabetes-induced changes in enteric nerves of the rat ileum by combined treatment with alpha-lipoic acid and evening primrose oil. Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic and Clinical, 111: 57-65.
- Semra, Y.K., Smith, N.C.E. & Lincoln, J. (2004) Comparative effects of high glucose on different adult sympathetic neurons in culture. NeuroReport, 15: 2321-2325.
- Shotton, H.R. & Lincoln, J. (2006) Diabetes only affects nitric oxide synthase-containing myenteric neurons that do not contain haem oxygenase-2. Brain Research, 1068: 248-256.
- Shotton, H.R., Adams, A. & Lincoln, J. (2006) Effect of aminoguanidine treatment on diabetes-induced changes in the myenteric plexus of the rat ileum. Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic and Clinical, In Press.
- Semra, Y.K., Wang, M., Peat, N.J., Smith, N.C.E., Shotton, H.R. & Lincoln, J. (2006) Selective susceptibility of different subpopulations of sympathetic neurons to diabetic neuropathy in vivo is reflected by increased vulnerability to oxidative stress in vitro. Neuroscience Letters, In Press.
Page last modified on 25 may 10 13:53


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GIFT BOX - Monkey Mania Dr
Item# AC8507
Detailshttp://www.kipling-usa.com/gift-box/100139104.html GIFT BOX Monkey Mania Dr
Item# AC8507
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Who says taking notes has to be boring? Introducing a cute little gift box complete with a bright print notebook and pretty pink pen so you can add a little flair to your everyday routine.Read More
- Print notebook with elastic closure
- Imported
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Returns must be made within 90 days of delivery for a refund of the purchase price, minus the shipping, handling, gift box fee and other additional charges.


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Samsung 32" Class 1080p 120Hz LED Smart HDTV - UN32F6300AFXZA
32" Class Slim LED HDTV 1080p Organizes Entertainment and Content The Samsung 32-inch Class 1080p 120hz Slim LED HDTV is a TV that does more than you might expect. The HD 1080p display is easy on the eyes with sharp definition and realistic color, and the audio system by Dolby makes listening a pleasure. You'll enjoy more of what you want from television. But wait, there's more - the Samsung Smart TV finds the shows and movies you prefer to watch and lets you navigate easily within five content panels with your universal remote. It will also help you discover new viewing options. With a 32" Class Slim LED HDTV 1080p in your home, the world will come to you. The dual-core processor lets you browse the web, view content from social and entertainment sites and download apps-while you lounge comfortably at home in front of your TV. Samsung technology makes this Smart TV capable of responding to voice and gestures with the installation of a Skype camera, sold separately. The Samsung Smart TV finds the movies and TV shows you like - and more. Navigate within the 5 smart hub content panels. Easily discover movies, shows, and social posts with less searching and more watching.
- Dual core processor
Dual core processing speeds allow you to perform multiple tasks at the same time. It also enables fast web browsing while playing apps or TV programs that you've recently opened through the Recent History feature.
- Clear Motion Rate 240
A Clear Motion Rate of 240 is a remarkable level of motion-clarity. TVs with this CMR can display action-packed movement with in-depth sharpness, clarity and contrast. Clear Motion Rate was developed to accurately measure how well an LCD or LED TV can depict fast moving images. Previously, motion-clarity was calculated by the frame refresh rate alone. But CMR offers a more complete measure by calculating 3 factors: frame refresh rate, image processor speed and backlight technology.
- Wide color enhancer plus
It enhances hues by expanding the color range for a more vivid experience especially beneficial when watching older film productions and non high definition content.
- Full HD 1080p
Samsung Full HD 1080p displays picture quality that's crisp, clear, and breathtakingly life-like. The realistic detail of Full HD images invites you to enjoy a viewing experience that redefines reality.
- Built-in Wi-Fi
With Wi-Fi built right into the TV, no additional equipment is needed to connect with an existing wireless router in your home network and start browsing the web, accessing Samsung Apps or other Smart TV features.
- ConnectShare movie
ConnectShare movie lets you watch videos, play music or view photos from a USB connection without needing to use a PC or special equipment. Simply plug your USB directly into your Samsung TV's USB port and watch on the big screen with friends and family.
- Anynet+ (HDMI-CEC)
With Samsung Anynet+ you'll enjoy expanded control and seamless functionality between all your Samsung HDMI connected compatible devices such as your Samsung TV, Blu-ray Disc player, AV Receiver and home theater system.
- Eco ensor
Samsung eco sensor measures the intensity of the light in the room and automatically adjusts the brightness of the image on the TV, for more intelligent energy management.
- 4 HDMI connections
High-quality single-cable digital audio/video interface for connecting the TV to a digital cable box, satellite box, DVD & Blu-ray Player, PC computers, PC portable devices, tablets, and devices featuring the HDMI output.
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Delivers immersive 5.1 surround sound from any DTS-encoded content and converts any two-channel audio content into a 5.1 DTS surround sound track for discrete surround sound playback.
- Dolby Digital plus/pulse
Optimizes the TV sound quality when viewing and listening to Internet movies, Internet music and other content played back from wired or wireless mobile phones, PCs, and tablet devices.


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Oh, hi fellow fans of cult classic The Room. I've got a present for you that is far greater than any bouquet of roses, slinky read dress, or glass of scotchka. See embedded after the jump the trailer for horror comedy The House That Drips Blood on Alex, a 12-minute-long short film set to premiere July 24 at Comic-Con – that also stars Joey Greco. (Yes, that Joey Greco, from Cheaters.) I'll give you a second to watch it before we discuss.
So, if you're like me, you watched this trailer in absolutely gleeful disgust, then immediately forwarded it to your friends while asking, Could this possibly be real?! Well, I went straight to the source, Studio8.net -- the creators of the short film -- and the answer is: Yes. Holy Denny, this is real people! But what is it about? According to Brock LaBorde, the co-owner of Studio8, "It's hard to explain." Well, who does Wiseau play? "Alex!" And why is he covered in blood? "Because the house drips it on him!"
Okay, so I'll have to wait until the horror comedy premieres on Atom TV come Halloween to find out. But LaBorde does reveal that the film was inspired by low-budget horror fare like Tales From the Crypt, and that Wiseau was very enthusiastic about its script. Says LaBorde, "He really acts in this."
Like us Room fans even need to be sold. Tommy had me at "Arrrgghhh!" Who else is in? Joey Greco, guys!


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Thank you for visiting our past auction result archives. If you have an item identical (or similar) to this auction lot, please call, write or contact us to discuss. We will be able to help you.
Lot # 1019 (of 1525) < Previous Lot | Next Lot >
1973-1975 Rod Carew Pro Model Bat
Starting Bid - $200.00, Sold For - $696.00
Signature model R161 exhibits heavy game use including ball stitch and bat rack marks along the barrel. The cracked handle (approx. 12 inches) has a light coat of pine tar and has white tape in a spiral pattern covering the crack. There is a piece of wood (approx. 3 inches) missing from the bat located to the left of the center brand. Carew's player number "29" is written on the knob end in black marker. Carew amassed 3,053 hits during his nineteen seasons in the Major Leagues. His seven batting titles are surpassed only by Ty Cobb, Tony Gwynn and Honus Wagner, and equaled only by Rogers Hornsby and Stan Musial. He hit over .300 in fifteen consecutive seasons with the Twins and Angels, achieving a .328 lifetime average. Carew was honored as American League Rookie of the Year in 1967, won the league MVP ten years later, and was named to eighteen straight All-Star teams. Length: 34 inches. Weight: 32 ounces. SCD Authentic Grade: A6. LOAs from Dave Bushing/SCD Authentic and John Taube & Vince Malta/PSA DNA. Reserve $200. Estimate $400/$800. SOLD FOR $696.00
(Click the smaller thumbnails to the left and right (if any) to cycle through each photo in the gallery of images for this lot.)


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Blue Ridge CTC campus going tobacco free
April 5, 2013
MARTINSBURG — Plans are being made for Blue Ridge Community and Technical College to become a tobacco-free campus — a change that should become effective by August when students begin the fall......
bull hockey...... dirt bag smokers, such a menace. come on now,,,,, smoking out in the open air is such a health hazard?
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Get Tiny Troopers 2 for free
It's Thursday, so that must mean another batch of Chillingo games are hitting the App Store and Google Play. We check out the latest titles.
This week it's not a new title but a great game going free for a short time, plus some great new updates to a couple of Chillingo classics.
Tiny Troopers 2 got a big thumbs up in our review back in March, scoring a great 9/10 for its Cannon Fooder-like action.
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