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TSLA And Electric Cars: The 600 GWh Elephant In The Room That Will Not Go Away 14 comments
A reader wrote in to tell me that while my last article (covering the enormous battery supply challenges the EV industry is facing) was really interesting, it was also too long and quite difficult to follow.
I therefore try to write a simpler 1-2-3 summary below about the giant battery elephant facing TSLA and other EV and EV battery producers:
1. If 10% of all newly produced cars are long-range EVs in 2020, we will need 600 GWh of battery capacity for the 10 million cars.*
2. The current global battery manufacturing capability is only 25-30 GWh. This includes all Li-Ion batteries of this configuration, not just for EV or hybrid car batteries. It took the world about two decades to build up the current Li-Ion capacity from zero.
3. We would need to add about 570 GWh of battery capacity in six years in newly built (TSLA likes to use the word) "giga factories" just to cover the demand for EV batteries by 2020.
Now TSLA bulls may object and cry wolf: "Wait, Tesla only expects a car market share of 0.7% or less by 2020! Why did you use 10%?"
Correct, these are the smaller numbers I used in my previous articles:
20 to 40 GWh needed for TSLA cars by 2020 (mainly for the upcoming TSLA Gen III car aimed at the mass-market segment)
(Note: I'm assuming TSLA can sell every car it makes immediately, I'm only looking at the supply side for the sake of this entire article.)
Even TSLA double-digit GWh capacity is a gigantic challenge (see the 25-30 GWh in 2., at present the total global GWh capacity limits).
But since some TSLA bulls are assuming a TSLA share price of $1000 in 2020+ or even before then, the 1-2-3 summary was hopefully useful to demonstrate the supply side challenges beyond TSLA's own cars. Why?
Some TSLA bulls argue that TSLA will soon morph from "just" a EV car company into a technology company deserving a higher P/E and PEG ratio in the stock market. TSLA will in their views (for example):
- re-cycle/re-sell old EV batteries for local energy storage and "buffering", maybe in conjunction with solar energy installations
- license/rent its global charging networks/stations to third parties
- design/build EV battery packs and drivetrains and license/sell these technologies or products to other car manufacturers
in addition to "just" manufacturing and selling long-range EVs.
Now the 600 GWh elephant becomes relevant for these 10 million cars:
20-40 GWh would be needed for TSLA cars (for up to 0.7% of all cars sold in 2020)
560+ GWh would be needed for cars "powered by Tesla", "Tesla inside" or similar labels for cars sold by other car companies (9.3% of all cars in 2020) with a TSLA drivetrain and/or battery pack.
Why did I use 10% again? Because it happens to equal 10 million cars.
After all, Toyota and other auto giants with the largest market caps in the car sector currently sell about 10 million cars/year - the same number of cars as in the "TSLA is a tech company" scenario above.
Using a higher margin for its own cars and a lower margin on licensed cars in absolute numbers, TSLA could in theory become the "largest and most profitable car company" (this is again a quote from TSLA bulls) one day - if there is going to be a battery supply of 600 GWh.
At this point, I will stop and advise you to check reality with battery and plant/supply manufacturing experts of your choice and ask them:
"Please tell me how we can build/get to 20-40 GWh or 600 GWh in EV battery supply capacity per year in 6 years from now"
They will probably tell you (after checking you really meant GWh and not MWh and made a mistake) to start building plants in parallel and 24/7 to ever reach these capacities, especially for the 600 GWh figure.
So, whenever someone asks you if you have "experienced the (emotional) TSLA grin" and then tells you that TSLA tech will one day dominate the car industry and that the share price will go to $1000+ in a few years - I have a simple and rational question to ask back first:
"Have you ever heard about the 600 GWh Elephant in the EV Room?"
TSLA-specific Summary
- Even if TSLA builds these giant factories as JVs with partners (such as Daimler or a large battery supplier**) the 40+ GWh ramp takes time.
- TSLA will have a hard time getting enough cells for its own cars. It's not possible to supply other EV car companies in the coming years.
- Pioneers often are not the future marketshare leaders once the sector matures: Falling $/kWh could advantage battery late-movers. This especially concerns TSLA since it's the only car company favoring 18650-type cells (or similar cylindrical formats for the new Gen III car).
- TSLA will have to decide whether it sticks to cylindrical cells or moves to configurations favored by the other car makers in the future:
(Source: AAB 2014, via: www.greencarcongress.com/2013/11/2013112... )
While the current solution has its advantages (see density), the global capacity currently is not available for mass-market adoption in cars.
The absurdity of this is that other Li-Ion suppliers and vertically integrated car companies (Nissan-AESC) currently have overcapacity, but of course TSLA can't mix or switch chemistry and configurations.
General EV Summary
If we are ever supposed to produce mass-market EVs sold by the millions every year on this planet (using Nickel and Cobalt etc.***), we will have to stop ignoring the elephant. My simple, rough estimate:
It will take decades, not a few years to deal with the EV elephant.
The "EV revolution" (a car market disruption over a few years) could likely turn into a slow "EV evolution" instead (taking 1-2 decades for EVs to achieve a high marketshare), even in a best-case EV scenario.
Many bullish EV analysts could underestimate supply issues/timelines.
That said, using 100 million barrels of oil/day (and using more energy to get "newer" oil out of the ground) is also not the answer longer-term.
Personal mobility needs, emission numbers and resource constraints are hard nuts to crack with a few billion people living this planet - many of those are dreaming to be finally able to afford their very first car!
There are no simple answers. Maybe less cars owned is one idea****.
I doubt rental is bullish for car makers. 100 million cars can become 10.
* This assumes 60 GWh is needed for 1% of all new cars, or more precisely: 60 GWh is needed for 1 million of these cars/year by 2020.
A long-range EV is hereto defined as a car running 200+ miles on a single battery charge. Such a car is supposed to be a full alternative for current ICE cars, i.e. not just a short-range EV as a "second car".
TSLA CTO JB Straubel used 40 GWh for 700k future TSLA cars so I just adapted his numbers for a total number of 10 million long-range EVs:
(see minute 21:00 and following of the video. Published Sept 26, 2013)
He is also using the same "100 million new cars/year in 2020" estimate.
(Note: I used lower figures for new cars/year and average cells/car in my previous articles so as to err on the conservative side of demand)
** Even though Toyota is also a TSLA investor, the current Toyota leadership doesn't seem to believe in a "pure" EV future at the moment. It took Panasonic about 1.5 years to create a new 18650-type cell manufacturing line and it took Nissan-AESC 2.5 years for their larger cell planet. I'm therefore assuming 24 months needed for a new "giga factory" by TSLA (given the capacity and possible cell size changes).
*** While expensive and/or supply-critical elements such as Nickel and Cobalt could be replaced in the distant future thanks to R&D, the price volatility in the supply chain (because other users outside of the EV industry demand similar raw materials) will be there for many years.
**** Better public/mass transport and driverless "robot cars" that you can rent 24/7. Click to order, car arrives at your home and you hop in.Back To Tales From The Future's Instablog HomePage »
Instablogs are blogs which are instantly set up and networked within the Seeking Alpha community. Instablog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors, in contrast to contributors' articles.Comments (14)Track new comments
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No position at the moment as I pointed out in last TSLA article:
Progressive drivers looking for an eco-bling EV might like the S, but not an SUV like the X.
I wrote in the article:
The updated supply contract with Panasonic from late October 2013 is "only" for 2 billion cells over 4 years:
do you follow this work and are you inclined to believe the implication that TSLA weekly sales might be down to sub 450 (from 700+ right before the first fire)?
One addition: As TSLA sales numbers grow, I do not understand why they play still this "hide and seek" game and only report sales every Q. It made sense with the Roadster selling very few units (and before they were a PUBLIC company).
As mentioned in the blog entry, TSLA competitors entering the EV sector later (say by 2020) could take advantage of falling battery costs and manufacturing improvements.
Here's the original PR from Sekisui:
Here Elon comments that Tesla's projected production capacity was around 400 per week, but actual production capacity today is 600 cars per week. Panasonic however could ramp production up only about 50 % so Tesla can make only 500 cars per week despite 600 car capacity. However Panasonic can catch up Tesla's production capacity around Q2 2014. Therefore Tesla and Elon Musk has never said that they have long term battery supply problems, but only that their ramp up of production was faster than anticipated and this caused a short term problem for Panasonic.
I'm aware of this recent video interview.
The point was that Tesla or Elon Musk or Panasonic has never adressed a worry that Tesla has a long term battery supply problem. The idea of battery supply constraints comes from your own imagination. And what we know from the real world, it does not support your idea.
"The idea of battery supply constraints comes from your own imagination"
Solar panels/modules can be easier switched between suppliers, I wouldn't compare the two markets directly. TSLA has a need for cylindrical cells of very high quality - every other EV manufacturer uses a different form, the market is still in flux and pricing reductions yoy are less clear compared to the more mature solar market.
2. gain marketshare in the mass-market (well above >100k/year)
As for battery raw material battery input, Lithium is now very concentrated supplier-wise.
Daimler and Tesla Battery Cap-Ex and Output compared: http://seekingalpha.com/p/2wmd4 $TSLA $DDAIF May 11, 2016
Mars And Tesla Model3 Magic By 2018: Musk's Two Gigantic Promises Will Face Reality Soon(er): http://seekingalpha.com/p/2wl0w $TSLA $TM May 6, 2016
Reminder: Apple Pay Won't Add Much To Apple's Bottom Line For Years http://seekingalpha.com/p/2v8ge $AAPL Feb 18, 2016
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text:
Jan 14: Protest Enbridge in Vancouver
Jan 9th, 2013
From Rising Tide- Vancouver, Coast Salish Territories:
No Consent? No Pipelines! No Tar Sands! No Climate Crimes!
Monday January 14th @ 5:00 pm
Victory Square, Cambie & Hastings Street
Vancouver, Unceded Coast Salish Territories
On Facebook: http://on.fb.me/ZLnKKO
On Twitter: www.twitter.com/risingtide604
* This event is in solidarity with IDLE NO MORE & frontline Indigenous communities. Bring drums and wear regalia.
* Noise demo: bring pots and pans (to bang), whistles, horns and such! (and ear plugs, it's going to get loud!)
* This is a child and family friendly event.
When the pipeline Joint Review Panel comes to Vancouver on January 14th it is our time to voice our opposition. It is our moment to say NO to this crazy climate crime of a pipeline and to expose the Review Panel for what it truly is – a sham, a corporate smokescreen, seeking input while reserving the right to approve the project regardless and removing the right of communities to say no.
On Monday 14th we invite you to attend the Enbridge Review Panel NO!SE DEMO!
Indigenous communities have already said no to this project and have repeatedly affirmed that free, prior, and informed consent must be respected by both colonial governments and industry.
More than 130 First Nations have signed the Save the Fraser Declaration, an Indigenous law that bans all tar sands pipelines within the Fraser Watershed. The Unist'ot'en Clan have made it clear that they oppose the construction of all pipelines, including natural gas pipelines, on their territories, that may even blaze the trail for Enbridge's proposal.
We are standing in full support of the self-determination of Indigenous communities and calling out the "consultation process" as inadequate and ultimately unacceptable.


text:
This bedspread was my inspiration to paint and redecorate my guest room with a French flair ! Walls are gray / pewter color I used a touch of red for contrast ! Bed looks so pretty now elegant
It is very beautiful but not well made - plan to make lots of minor repairs where the stitching pulls away from the seams and complete strips of material fall away from the backing after the fist wash. IIF YOU CANNOT SEW, DO NOT BUY!
I was looking for a grey set to match newly painted walls. This set was perfect, just the right amount of light and medium grey. Looks very attractive on the bed. I like it allot.
This is a beautiful and comfortably soft quilt. Love it!
This quilt is great! Washes well, looks good and will stretch (if you don't dry it all the way) to fit any large bed. Mine is a king euro and is does well. I have washed it about 50 times (have large dog that loves to get in the bed) and it has not lost it's color or shape. It is a buy!
I use it in spare room, but so lovely could be used any room. Wish I would have purchased more pillows to go with bedspread. Guests give a lot of compliments
What a steal on this. Very pleased with quality
Very nice item just what I was looking for.
Beautiful great fit but I am using on queen size bed
Colors are exactly as shown. The fabric is soft and comfortable.
Perfect bedding .. not feminine or masculine .. washes up great!!
Not great quality IMO. A bit thin for price. Design only on one side of comforter
A very nice spring/summer quilt. It's light grey and white and looks beautiful on my bed.
Very nice weight, I really like it. I wish it was a little bit bigger, but otherwise it's great.
It pleases my perfectionist heart! The colors, the construction, the atmosphere it lends to a small bedroom...comfort, cleanliness, tidiness.
Love the quilt! Beautiful and light-weight, looks great!
This was a great buy. Light weigh great color. It is perfect for the master bedroom. I would recommend to a friend.
Very pretty light gray & white, exactly as pictured. Its soft and well made. The fabric on the back of the shams is very thin, however. I would like to have sturdier woven fabric there. While not a high-thread count quilt overall, it is very nice for the price. The pattern is beautiful and serene, makes for a quiet, calm feeling in the bedroom. If I decide on a pop of color, I will add some magenta or pink decor pillows. It also looks nice with aqua and blue. A great find for me!
This quilt set is just beautiful! Nice quality; feels rich to the touch and oh so pretty. I'm very happy with this set! It is a little pricey, though.
Absolutely love my new quilt! Soft, classic look. I love the French Country look with a little modern thrown. Everyone that visits loves it. My spare room is painted white on top with grey on the bottom...black iron French style headboard and footboard. I live in Ontario, Canada and shop all the time with overstock.com. Shipping is fantastic, prices are great! Love it!


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Sean Patton
My name is Sean Patton. I am a comedian based in New York and Los Angeles by way of New Orleans. I cut my teeth doing standup in the Crescent city and since have performed at Caroline's, The Comedy Cellar, Gotham, The Improv, UCBNY, UCBLA, The Melbourne International comedy festival (2011), The Montreal Just for Laughs comedy festival (2008, 2010), and many other clubs around the US and Canada.
I made my Basic Cable debut on Comedy Central's "Live at Gotham" (2009) and my Network TV debut on "Late night with Jimmy Fallon" (2010). I also recently appeared on "Conan" (2011).
I love doing what I do. Some of you will love it too (thanks!), but some of you will not (thanks for coming) My big plans for the future are to continue sharing my comedy with as many people as possible and to one day fall in love with You. Yes, You, the person reading this bio right now. Don't worry about breaking my heart because I plan on turning the experience into material anyway. Later!
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The Nebraska School Activities Association (NSAA) will honor Creighton Preparatory, Lincoln Southwest, Elkhorn South, Omaha Skutt Catholic, Kearney Catholic, Columbus Scotus, Lindsay Holy Family, and Howells high schools as the sixth annual U.S. Cellular Cup champions. The U.S. Cellular® Cup, which will be presented to the 2011-12 championship schools during the fall, is the Association's all-activities program award.
Lincoln Southwest won the All-School U.S. Cellular Cup in Class A for the first time. The Silver Hawks, who scored 662.5 points in the All-School Division, won the Class A Girls Division of the U.S. Cellular Cup and finished second in the boys standings to top Millard West High School and end the Wildcats four-year run as the All-School Cup champion. Southwest took home NSAA runner-up trophies in softball, boys and girls golf, and speech, and finished third in girls swimming & diving to pull away from Millard West. Creighton Preparatory School scored 335 points to win the Class A Boys U.S. Cellular Cup. The Junior Jays won NSAA championships in baseball, swimming & diving, golf, and soccer to claim the Class A Boys Division again.
Omaha Skutt Catholic earned the Class B All-School and Class B Boys Divisions of the U.S. Cellular Cup in 2011-12. The SkyHawks won state championships in softball, girls tennis, wrestling, speech, and boys soccer. Omaha Skutt Catholic, literally, survived "the storm," outlasting Elkhorn South for the All-School Cup. Skutt finished with 595 points, while Elkhorn South placed second with 563.5 points. The Storm used its NSAA Class B girls golf title to win its first Class B Girls Division of the U.S. Cellular Cup. In the B Boys Cup standings, Omaha Skutt Catholic recorded 320 points to top Scottsbluff. The Bearcats came on strong in the spring, winning the NSAA Class B Boys Track & Field Championships, to finish with 297.5 points.
Kearney Catholic did not win an NSAA championship, but the Stars did well enough in the boys and girls standings to outlast Columbus Scotus and take the Class C All-School Division of the U.S. Cellular Cup. The Stars finished as the NSAA runner-up in football, volleyball, girls track & field, and boys golf to claim the All-School Cup. Columbus Scotus won the Girls Division Cup in Class C for the fourth consecutive year. The Shamrocks won NSAA championships in girls cross country and volleyball to edge Kearney Catholic, 237.5-200, in the girls standings. Kearney Catholic scored 197.5 points to win the Class C Boys Division of the U.S. Cellular Cup.
Howells won the All-School and Boys Divisions of the U.S. Cellular Cup in Class D for the second straight year. The Bobcats finished as the NSAA runner-up at the Class D2 football and boys basketball championships. The Howells girls program claimed the NSAA Class D2 Volleyball Championship to help the Bobcats outscore Humphrey St. Francis 325-287.5 in the All-School Division. Lindsay Holy Family won the Class D girls version of the U.S. Cellular Cup by winning NSAA championships in girls track & field and play production; and taking second in girls cross country.


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- Report: #523743
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Complaint Review: Easy Google Income; Easy Net Income; EZincome; EZincome 2
Easy Google Income; Easy Net Income; EZincome; EZincome 2Internet United States of America
Easy Google Income; Easy Net Income; EZincome; EZincome 2 False Information, didn't receive product, false advertisement, Internet *NOTICE..!! this ripoff has nothing to do with Google search engine - many rip-off businesses use the Google name to fool consumers.
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I thought it was a legit company. It is not. I haven't received anything that they said I would.
They said I wuld be emailed. Hasn't happened yet.
This report was posted on Ripoff Report on 11/14/2009 05:44 PM and is a permanent record located here: http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/Easy-Google-Income-Easy-Net-Income-EZincome-EZincome-2/internet/Easy-Google-Income-Easy-Net-Income-EZincome-EZincome-2-False-Information-didnt-recei-523743. The posting time indicated is Arizona local time. Arizona does not observe daylight savings so the post time may be Mountain or Pacific depending on the time of year.
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Skip to comments.NYSE: An American Icon "Sold to A Bunch of Foreigners"
Posted on 02/15/2011 2:32:02 PM PST by GVnana
Its official. The New York Stock Exchange has been sold to, in one CNBC anchors words, a bunch of foreigners. The iconic trading floor of the NYSE was tense this morning as CNBCs Mark Haines grilled CEO Duncan Niederauer on the just announced merger of Deutsche Börse and the NYSE, a deal resulting in the creation of the worlds largest share- and derivatives-trading platform.
(Excerpt) Read more at biggovernment.com ...
The NYSE and the other US exchanges are totally corrupt. Maybe the Germans will clean things up. The Germans did a good job when they ran NASA, they do not elect Muslims to run their country, they have bought a lot of jobs to the SE United States.
I know southern working men at the BMW and Mercedes factories and they like em. TV watching Americans have only themselves to blame. They traded liberty for a TV clicker. Sad.
But when it was Japanese buying American icons, taking too much notice of it was called xenophobic and racist by the networks. I call hypocrisy.
The White House and the Supreme Court buildings are solidly constructed and represent fine workmanship. The U.S. could probably get a few hundred million dollars if they put them up for auction to the highest bidder.
So now we don't even export "nothing" anymore !
"Sold" in the Headline, "Merged" in the body of the article. I don't care. A major chunk of America is out the door again.
This is BS. We have to do something to get back our country from those that would part it out.
White House extremely pleased I bet. This is another huge story no?
Wait for the White House....
With you, everything goes back to TV? It's the new Bush. What's with that? Lots of successful, productive people actually watch TV. Even some Germans watch TV.
I think its ridiculous that this country would allow Germany to buy our New York Stock Exchange. Its another black eye for the United States- victory for Germany, not the United States.
I keep asking Frantzie when he gonna pull an Elvis and shoot his TV.
"The White House and the Supreme Court buildings are solidly constructed and represent fine workmanship. The U.S. could probably get a few hundred million dollars if they put them up for auction to the highest bidder."
Who would be stupid enough to shell out the money for those corrupt bastards, er, sorry, bastions of liberty?
Uh, Frantzie. I've been to Germany and seen the "work ethic" of Germans. Don't get me wrong — I love the German people, but in comparison to Americans, they're just drunk most of the time. (Of course that might yet work in the American auto industry...)
It's just one more off Obangos obummer's check list to redistribute America's wealth....only he determines who, when, where, and what. All for the Obangos glory.
You really desperately need to get a second track for your brain. This has absolutely nothing in any way any sane person could or would ever imagine ANYTHING at all ever to do with TV. Get over TV, you spend more time obsessing about it than any 3 people spend watching it.
Why was it even for sale? I did not hear anything about it. Who decided to sell it?
Wasn't there a story recently about a guy in MN (upper Midwest somewhere) who shot out his TV when Sarah Palin appeared? I know THAT wouldn't be our FRantzie.
I watch one show [somewhat] religiously any more .. Greta. But if someone wants to watch 24 hours a day, it's his/her problem, not mine, much less is it worth obsessing about.
Everything is for sale if somebody waves enough cash. Anheuser-Busch wasn't for sale until InBev made them an offer they'd be dumb to refuse.
It's all part of the grand global plan, comrade............./s
People are shooting TVs all the time. Muslim Jihadists love to shoot them. I pinned Frantzie down and he admitted he still has a TV but uses it just to watch DVDs. So I challenged him to shoot it so there would be no temptation, no chance of him backsliding and watching broadcast TV shows. So far no answer.
Greta is good. Dang I missed Trump he was on last night. Notice how Greta often does interviews standing up and so does the subject.
Greta does her homework. Most of them seem to read whatever their producers write for them. She goes up to Capitol Hill and does ask tough questions of Members from both sides. I never would have believed when she switched over from CNN that by 2010 she'd be my Fox Fav.
I saw the Trump interview. Again she was superb. I hope The Donald does enter the fray. If nothing else, he would help frame the upcoming debate. Right now the more contestants, the merrier in my book. They will winnow out, but hopefully there will be some good issues raised, and we will be able to coalesce around a sound candidate would can go toe-to-toe with Obama, trounce him in a debate and at the polls in '12. That is not going to be an easy task, no matter how much we'd like to think it will be.
Selling out America one piece at a time so nobody notice. We let it be done. We get what we deserve.
I saw their work ethic in a US state where a Mercedes mule team were testing 2013 models back in 2010. Those kids were going over their data on lap tops until 10 pm at the hotel. If NASA did not have the Germans (dotto the Russians) - no one was going to the moon.
Getting back to the point of the NYSE - maybe the Germans will be less corrupt than the SCUM in NYC at the NYSE.
America used to have something called "capital formation" where a bunch of people would get together, start a company and hire.
This antiquated concept was killed by Sarbanes Oxley, Frank / Dodd, 0bamaCare and a general attack by the 0bama Administration on the profit motive.
Wasn't Wall Street grand?
Ah well, no need for it in our new paradise. All hail the pigs on two feet!
Well the Germans do not have a muslim destroying their country. Wall Street and Dems in the 2006 Congress helped destroy the US financial system. The Germans will probably be an improvement. In general, they are financially far more responsible than the U.S.. Sorry but the truth hurts.
They are just adding to the communists empire of Global Economy. Soon to be known as World Order.
Where do you get off the exchange is totally corrupt. Have you ever worked on the floor or is this just an opinion?
Well, they're all ready talking about getting rid of the dollar as the world reserve currency, so this just makes sense. Welcome to the nightmare world of Soros's Open Society.
That comic was just like Frantzie. Pledging to not watch TV but then backsliding and ruining all the progress he made. That's why it's nor for real until you shoot (or otherwise execute) your TV
There's allot more than Dems and Wall street that created the financial crisis....try the withdrawals of billions from our banking system just days before Paulson went to the senate on begging knees.
Must be you didn't hear Merkyl's recent comments about Muslims in their country....she's on the boat with France and others who recently mentioned mulitculturism isn't working.
No cable, no airwaves, satellite's too expensive, no problem!
Saves bullets too!
You have no TV to kill
I hear you. I would take Merkel president for life here if she pushed out the islamic out of the weiss haus.
Can the Germans be any more corrupt thank Goldman Sachs, Citicorp or The JP Morgue (Chase aka Rockefeller)?
I rather like her...she's not a Margret Thatcher but she's getting there I think...just a different style...after all it is Germany, but she handles her people well and is not intimidated by other nations IMO.
..don't forget to add, shooting-up, smoking pot, and selling raffle tickets for afternoon oral servicing (yes that's a true story).
Also you might want to add: sabotaging the machines to guarantee weekend double time!!
All true.
The DOW "industrials" are not all so industrial, either, and most of them are based on manufacturing in foreign countries by US corporations.
I just might be more conservative than you. If I watch the Bill O'Reilly show it doesn't have any effect on my conservative beliefs. I have a good filter. I'm not brainwashed by anything on TV. I'm on to them
No but you put money in the pockets of people who are covering for and spreading propaganda for Obama. Keep up the good work. Wait til hyperinflation kicks in. I hope you are prepared - you helped create it by supporting Obama.
I'm turning off the cable TV pretty soon anyhow. If I watch over the air TV am I supporting Obama? Do you watch broadcast TV? Do you have a TV for watching DVDs?
Do you need historical examples?
Well they seem to be a h*ll of a lot more responsible than US institutions, their leader is not a muslim and their populace is not dumb enough and brainwashed by TV enough to elect a Muslim. Hopefully they learned their lesson about electing an usurper.
Americasn traded liberty for a remote control and HD.
The NYSE is not an "icon." The s***ty media usues this stupid icon and iconic in every article. The NYSE is a den of theives as is the NYC financial district and Greenwich CT. Maybe the Germans will do a better job.
Amen. Maybe we could get the Germans to buy the rest of Wall Street too. Buncha a fookin' paper churners is what they are.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.


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The National Wild and Scenic Allegheny River, in Warren County, is the location set for the United States Canoe and Kayak Marathon Championships beginning August 11. The six day major event is held each year at the beginning of August. This year's championships mark the sixth time the event will be held in Warren County….
The 10th Annual Kinzua Country Tango Adventure Race is set to be held August 1, 2015 within the Allegheny National Forest. This race features events in running, biking, swimming,orienteering, and canoeing. The three divisions of competition at the Kinzua Tango include Solo, Two Person Complete, and Relay. Prize money will be awarded to winners….
The Big Bend Access Area is located along Route 59 just North of Warren, Pa. This access area provides a spectacular view of the Allegheny River and the Kinzua Dam. There is a boat launch, a nearby overlook, as well as a bird viewing platform provided at Big Bend. Trails, playground equipment, restrooms, and a…
The Pennsylvania State Championship Fishing Tournament dates are set for September 25th,26th,27th, and 28th. Waters eligible to be fished for the tournament include: parts of the Allegheny Reservoir, Allegheny River, Tionesta Lake, Tionesta Creek, Brokenstraw Creek, and Conewango Creek. There is a festival and parade at the town of Tidioute during the weekend of the…
As water temperatures cool and we move from summer into the fall patterns, expect large fish like muskellunge to be more active. Food becomes less plentiful this time of year and these fish are looking for a big meal. The Allegheny River and French Creek drainages have several tailwaters below the outflows of dams. The…
From the trophy trout fishery below the Kinzua Dam, to the 26 approved trout waters ,and the special regulation trout waters, Warren County has a lot to offer trout anglers. Some of these waters also contain wild and native trout. Picturesque scenes can be found along the banks and shorelines of many of these waters….
Head to the Kinzua Dam above the Allegheny River in Warren County for prime eagle-watching opportunities Feb. 1 from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m. Three public areas will be open for free public viewing and learning about America's national bird: Big Bend Visitor Center, Riverside Watchable Wildlife Trail and Viewing Platform and Kinzua Dam roadway….
All U.S. Army Corps of Engineers-managed campsites and recreational areas in the Pittsburgh District are closed because of the federal government shutdown now in its second day. The Pittsburgh District includes the Kinzua Dam and Allegheny Reservoir; Union City Dam; Woodcock Creek Lake; Tionesta Lake and Shenango River Lake, among others in Pennsylvania, Ohio and…
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Pittsburgh District today said a blue-green algae bloom remains at Kinzua Dam and Allegheny Reservoir. The New York State Department of Health first notified the Corps of the bloom Aug. 30. It was found in the New York portion of the reservoir, from Quaker Bay downstream to Willow Bay….


text:
IHRA Drag Racing 1.02 patchFree
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Interview with composer Mohammed Fairouz, playing excerpts from his new disc "Critical Models" to be released on November 15. Check out his website at http://www.mohammedfairouz.com/
The Musician's Show with drummer Tomas Fujiwara!
More information about upcoming performances can be found here:
Flutist Jamie Baum dropped by to speak about her new project with her long-running septet, compositions inspired by traditional Sufi music. They're playing a very special gig Thursday at 7:30pm at Symphony Space on W. 95th and Broadway.
Also, the last 5 songs (all following Nusrat) were selected by intern Sam!
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I would like to get some help regarding 'customise audio player'. I specifically , want to replace play/pause button with my own .In addition ,i want to change the position of the button to top left.
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hey guys! I'm Wiki (the same way as you say Vicki)
I'm 17 and I love to draw dance and hang out with my friends (partys included ;p)
I really like dubstep and I'm trying to learn how to dance it (just started really)
pleaseeeee really pretty pleaseeee vote for my story cos I need some support!
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MelodicAngel Nov 05, 2012 08:50PM
@ArbeitMachtFrei nice ;3View all conversations
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Description: After coming back from her best friend's house, Angela finds herself in big trouble. But luckily a mysterious guy aids her out in her distress. Gabriel comes into Angela's life with his easy smile and eyes tha...


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- Report: #188366
Report - Rebuttal - Arbitrate
Complaint Review: The International Library Of Poetry
The International Library Of Poetry1 Poetry Plaza Owings Mills, Maryland U.S.A.
Poetry.com, The International Library Of Poetry ripoff Owings Mills Maryland
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I was so excited. I couldn't wait to tell my family that I was going to have a poem published in a book!!! I could hardly believe it. When I showed it to them, they thought it was kind of weird that THEY wanted to publish MY poem but make US pay for a whole bunch of stuff. And finally one said they thought it was a total scam. It really upset me to hear them say that because I was so excited that something so wonderful was going to happen.
I didn't believe them at first. But I got online anyway to see if I could find out if they were legit. and I found this website and all of your stories that was the exact same as mine and how they scammed all of you. and now I believe them and I'm glad I found all of your stories before I got scammed too.
I think that Poetry.com needs to be somehow shut down and stop getting people's hopes up. and Howard Ely needs to be put away. And I really hope that other people who receive the same information after they entered their poems will get online like I did and find all of our stories so they won't get scammed too.
I thank everyone for their stories and from saving me from being scammed.
Jasper, Georgia
This report was posted on Ripoff Report on 04/24/2006 05:06 PM and is a permanent record located here: http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/The-International-Library-Of-Poetry/Owings-Mills-Maryland-21117/Poetrycom-The-International-Library-Of-Poetry-ripoff-Owings-Mills-Maryland-188366. The posting time indicated is Arizona local time. Arizona does not observe daylight savings so the post time may be Mountain or Pacific depending on the time of year.
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He runs US Gold why not take your money where your interest are.
Then why did't he feel that way before. You keep telling yourself that crap and you mght start to believe it.
McEwen dosen't own any UXG or RBY , sold all his shares. It is spooky that he is out, came here because of him. What say you kid?? Sebring 900
So what better investment could RM be looking at?
200 million could buy a lot of low capcompanies, may be he has found something.


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Reporters Without Borders: Two Sides
The human rights organization Reporters Without Borders demonstrates the ambivalence of the Winter Olympics in Sochi. An imposing city-light-campaign shows both sides: truth and lies. For this purpose the advertising agency Philipp and Keuntje juxtaposed controversial quotes, thereby showing the significance of a free press for the ability to judge. Instead of one billboard with three posters passing through, colored layers alternate and in doing so expose quotes with different content. The campaign shows the importance of the work of journalists, who are being persecuted and threatened in Russia. These are the journalists Reporters Without Borders fights for daily.
Advertising Agency: Philipp und Keuntje, Hamburg, Germany
Executive Creative Director: Diether Kerner
Creative Director: Simon Jasper Philipp
Art Director: Mareike Hinsche
Copywriters: Adrienne Tonner, Johanna Hoppe
Creatives: Simon Jasper Philipp, Adrienne Tonner
Agency Producer: Jan-Erik Wessel
Film Production: Laia Gonzalez, Kira Bürgerhoff
Project Managers: Tanja Contreras, Ilona Perger
3 comments
Very similar to this: http://adsoftheworld.com/media/outdoor/ikea_rgb_billboard
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- June 26, 2006
- Vol. 65
- No. 25
Hottest Party of the Year
Oprah. Mariah. Janet. Diddy. Usher. Jay-Z. Beyoncé. At Music Mogul L.A. Reid's Exclusive 50th-birthday Bash, Everyone Got Down
Birthday boy Antonio "L.A." Reid has some serious juice: The Island Def Jam Music Group chairman rang in the big 5-0 at New York City's Nobu 57 with pals like Oprah Winfrey, Janet Jackson, Mariah Carey, Alicia Keys, Beyoncé, Jay-Z and John Legend. Said Usher: "At Puffy's parties, there's a lot of miscellaneous people, but at L.A.'s, it's VIP, VIP, VIP."
Despite the blinding wattage and luxe locale, the vibe was pure basement party. With R&B and hip-hop pumping, 300 guests packed the tiny dance floor: Usher busted out his best Michael Jackson moves to "Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough," as tennis great Serena Williams swayed and Star Jones Reynolds let loose with her husband, Al. When Lionel Richie hit the stage at midnight with his classic club thumper "Brick House," Mariah yelled, "Yay!" and even Oprah—who later grooved to the Spinners' "I'll Be Around" with Kenneth "Babyface" Edmonds—jumped up to two-step with the ecstatic crowd.
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text: Smile is just perfect and we have had an absolutely fantastic time. Ismail is really friendly and helpful and arranged so much for us - airport transfers, lifts to Yanartes, boat trips, restaurant recommendations (but his food was the best!), hikes to secluded coves, when to see turtles hatching... The bungalows are spacious, private very clean, well maintained, have efficient... More


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Not the software, the pages & posts themselves. We just moved over to a new server, and since then, after an update, new post or page or whatever, the site will "revert" back to a different state. The same state it was in right before the move.
I thought it was the BackWPUp plugin doing it, but I deactivated it. This morning, however, I found it activated again, and again the old version was up. This is NOT making my client happy. We're probably going to have to go back to the old server for the time being while I try to figure out what's wrong with the new server version.
Any idea what could be causing this? I can't figure it out, and if I can't even deactivate what I think might be the main culprit, then the site will be rendered unupdatable, and useless.


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Shonda Knight joined WCTV in December of 2006 and is now Executive Producer.
Shonda also anchors Daybreak, and co-anchors The Good Morning Show and Eyewitness News at Noon.
She now focuses much of her time on overseeing reporters and producers in the newsroom. Shonda has been in television in the North Florida-South Georgia area for more than a decade and is a native Tallahassean. From 2003 until joining WCTV, she was an anchor at WTXL in Tallahassee. Shonda is a graduate of Florida A&M with a degree in broadcast journalism.
She enjoys serving the community on many levels and is especially passionate about helping young people. She serves on boards for The Salvation Army, Whole Child Leon, the Tallahassee Girls Choir of CHOICE and among her many affiliations, works closely with the Domestic Violence Coordinating Council.
Shonda is an Associated Press of Florida award-winning journalist, FAMU Distinguished Alum (2011) and is a member of the National Association of Black Journalists.
She enjoys reading, baking, finding bargains at garage sales and spending quality time with her large family, including son Zekiah.


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What do you guys think?
What do you guys think?
I don't see anything.
I see it. Looks like there's something wrong with my monitor. Personally, don't like it too much. Won't stop me from visiting the site, though.
wow. what an enhancement :p
Erm... I think I'm with the Moose here... what am I supposed to see? *checks site in other browsers*
Oh, I see it in Opera too :)
Now I'm with sakamuyo - looks like the monitor is broken or something, not too keen on it...
Why doesn't it display in FF? (Too lazy to check codes or anything)
Yeah I'm thinking I may axe it when I get home. Thanks for the feedback guys. If you don't see it in FF it's probably because you have the old stylesheet cached.
omg allusion is now ANON?
well it looks ok on Opera. and i seriously doubt matt has shifted to opera full time so the problem cannot exist on firefox :D
wait it works fine on my firefox. and on ie too. guys clean that cache!
Heh, oops... F5 is your friend... *insert roll-eyes smiley here*
Yes, caching was the problem. Now I see it. Two words: Ugh. Lee.
Same here I thought there was something wrong with my monitor
I like it, but you should make the user name background gradient too, maybe the opposite direction?
Ah... now I can see it in firefox :)
This topic has been closed to new replies.


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20 years of experience
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A medical license is required for a doctor to practice medicine in a particular state. Requirements vary by state but most require, at a minimum, post-graduate training in the doctor's specific specialty. An NPI number is a national identifier unique to an individual health care provider and is managed by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
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Dr. Von Deck graduated from Harvard University , Boston.
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Similar doctors nearby
Dr. Gerald Steinberg
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Dr. Mercedes Von Deck practices Orthopaedic Surgery near Cambridge, MA.
See Cambridge Surgeons.


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home > oral health center > oral health a-z list > image collection gallery list > composite fillings picture article
Image Collection: Oral Health
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5. Picture of Composite Fillings
Photos courtesy of American Academy of Cosmetic Dentistry / aacd.com
Existing fillings sometimes need to be replaced due to wear, chipping, or cracking. Many people use this opportunity to replace silver amalgam fillings with tooth-colored composites. Their reasons may be aesthetic or concern about amalgam fillings, which contain mercury. The American Dental Association asserts that the mercury in amalgam combines with other metals to render it safe for use in filling teeth.
Related Topics
Cosmetic Dental Procedures
Reviewed by Laura J. Martin, MD on August 03, 2010
Image Source: American Academy of Cosmetic Dentistry / aacd.com.
Text: "Dental Health and Tooth Fillings", WebMD Medical Reference
Image Source: American Academy of Cosmetic Dentistry / aacd.com.
Text: "Dental Health and Tooth Fillings", WebMD Medical Reference
Guide to understanding the Image Gallery categories:


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David Ulane responded to our call for readers who work in GA: "I saw your recent request for stories about people who make their living through GA employment and as Northwest Mountain Regional Manager for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA), I'm one of them, with what I think is a unique and fantastic job.
GA garnering more attention from Washington
WASHINGTON, D.C. — General aviation now seems to be getting more attention in Congress and from the FAA. This observation comes from the appearance of a Congressman and a deputy administrator of the FAA at the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association Homecoming Fly-In earlier this month.
Michael Whitaker, FAA deputy administrator with the primary responsibility of developing the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), told a crowd of several hundred that he is getting his pilot's license "to better understand my job and general aviation issues."
AOPA Foundation names 'Giving Back' grant recipients
The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Foundation has revealed the winners of its 2014 "Giving Back" grants that recognize good works done through general aviation by non-profit organizations.
Breitling celebrates AOPA's anniversary with new watch
Swiss watch company Breitling is celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) with the release of a special limited edition timepiece, a scholarship program aimed at expanding the aviation community, and special events focused on sharing the passion of aviation with people across the USA throughout the year.
CBP promises better training and procedures for pilot stops
A promised top-down review of general aviation enforcement practices by the Customs and Border Protection's (CBP's) Office of Air and Marine shows that the agency has heard GA's concerns. But officials with the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) said they will remain vigilant to ensure the rights and freedoms of pilots are respected.
Thousands attend AOPA 75th anniversary fly-in
FREDERICK, Md. — Low clouds, gusty winds, and early threats of showers did not keep the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association from having a successful 75th anniversary celebration at its headquarters here Saturday, Oct. 4.
More than 3,000 people attended the homecoming fly-in. According to association officials, 345 aircraft arrived and more than 1,400 cars filled the parking area where drivers and passengers had to slush through wet, grassy areas to reach the paved walkways.
Minnesota pilot wins AOPA Debonair
FREDERICK, Md. – The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) awarded its 2014 Sweepstakes Airplane, a fully-restored 1963 Beechcraft 35-B33 Debonair, on Sunday, Oct. 5, to Steve Lagergren, an AOPA member from Litchfield, Minn.
Lagergren, who built and flies his own RV-7 kitplane, was flying with another pilot Sunday when AOPA President Mark Baker and AOPA Pilot Editor at Large Tom Horne flew up alongside him in the Debonair and – on a common radio frequency – informed Lagergren that he had won the airplane.
AOPA reveals scholarship winners
FREDERICK, Md. — The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Foundation Saturday awarded $65,000 in flight training scholarships to prospective pilots from eight states as part of its program to expand the pilot community and support flight training.
AOPA reveals Flight Training Excellence award winners
The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) has awarded its third annual Flight Training Excellence Awards to top flight schools and flight instructors ranked by more than 3,600 flight students who voluntarily reviewed their flight training experience through an AOPA online poll.
AOPA has recognized Paragon Flight of Fort Meyers, Florida, as the 2014 Best Flight School and Spencer Watson of Manassas, Virginia, as the 2014 Best Flight Instructor. Ten additional flight schools and 10 instructors were named "Outstanding" by AOPA as a result of the poll results.
AOPA hosts Homecoming Fly-In Oct. 4
FREDERICK, Md. – The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) will celebrate its 75th anniversary Oct. 4 with a Homecoming Fly-In at its headquarters on the Frederick, Md., Municipal Airport, giving members and the public a chance to tour its facilities, view aircraft, take part in aviation seminars and a Pilot Town Hall meeting with AOPA President Mark Baker. [Read more…]


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Last updated: 07/30/2002 09:34:20 PM
got a call from the lady next door (she) said,
"dogs running wild in the back yard.
did you see the big holes he dug?
killed the flowers and made a big mess.
" hesitated for a moment and said... "
i'm sorry, oh no! i'm sorry, don't know. i'm sorry, oh no! don't know (dildo).
Click here to submit the Corrections of Fido Dildo Lyrics


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Top Definition
Pig latin for "scram," which means "leave."
(Mom and Dad are having sex when Little Johnny walks in)
Johnny: Hi Mom! Hi Dad!
Dad: WTF?! AMSCRAY!
Johnny: Hi Mom! Hi Dad!
Dad: WTF?! AMSCRAY!
po Tricia Јун 1, 2005
Trending Now
Can you define these popular missing words?
to get the hell outta here
Damn, the cops are comin...let's grab the stash and amscray, Jeff!
po Eric v.2.0 Јул 19, 2003
to leave immediately (from pig latin for scram)
Here they come, grab your suitcase and amscray.
po Light Joker Октобар 3, 2005


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Orange Spot Cheddar ticklist
contributed by The Ivanator Oct/11 - This public ticklist has been seen 4,071 times
The best of Cheddar for the mid grade climber - Trad and Sport. List adheres to the Rockfax Orange Spot gradings: HS-HVS for Trad and 5-6a+ for Sport. Jill gets HS (and 2 stars) in Martin Crocker's 2009 Cheddar guide and has therefore been included.


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a1 Divisions of Pediatric Cardiology and Critical Care Medicine, The Cardiac Centre at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, United States of America
a2 Division of Pediatric Critical Care, Children's Hospital of Wisconsin, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, United States of America
a3 Division of Cardiac Surgery, C. S. Mott Children's Hospital, University of Michigan Medical School, Ann Arbor, Unites States of America
a4 Department of Cardiac Surgery, Children's Hospital Boston, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
a5 The Congenital Heart Institute of Florida (CHIF), Division of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, All Children's Hospital/Children's Hospital of Tampa, University of South Florida College of Medicine, Cardiac Surgical Associates, Saint Petersburg and Tampa, United States of America
a6 Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, The Cardiac Centre at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, Philadelphia, United States of America
Variability in practice can be considered to foster clinical innovation, and allow for individualized therapeutic plans and independence of practitioners. The Institute of Medicine, however, has issued a report suggesting that variability in patterns of practice are "illogical", and should be avoided whenever possible. Perhaps nowhere in the field of congenital cardiac disease is variability in practice more apparent than in the management of hypoplastic left heart syndrome. This review assesses the variability in practice at a large number of centres that manage neonates with hypoplastic left heart syndrome, with an emphasis on practice before, during, and after the first stage of the Norwood sequence of operations. We also suggest changes in future strategies for research.
In March, 2007, colleagues were contacted to respond to an internet-based survey using commercially available software (www.surveymonkey.com) to collect responses about the management practices for neonates with "straight-forward" hypoplastic left heart syndrome. No attempt was made to correlate management practices with any measures of outcome, as neither the practices themselves, nor the outcomes of interest, could be externally validated. Data is reported from 52 centers thought to manage over 1000 neonates with hypoplastic left heart syndrome on an annual basis. The first stage of the Norwood sequence was "recommended" to families by approximately five-sixths (86.5%) of the centres. No centre recommended primary cardiac transplantation, a "hybrid" approach, or non-intervention. In 7 centres (14.5%), it was reported that there was discussion of some or all of the above options, but ultimately the families decided upon the appropriate strategy.
Most centres preferentially used antegrade cerebral perfusion (54%) in contrast to deep hypothermia with circulatory arrest (24%), albeit that 11% of centres used a combination of these techniques and in 9% the support strategy was based on surgeon preference. The source of flow of blood for the lungs following the first stage of reconstruction was also highly variable. Of the 51 centres that responded to the question, 13 (25.5%) were participating in a multi-centric randomized clinical trial comparing the modified Blalock-Taussig shunt to the conduit placed from the right ventricle to the pulmonary arteries, the so-called "Sano" modification. Of the remaining 38 centres, 18 "usually" placed a conduit from the right ventricle to the pulmonary artery, 14 "usually" placed a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt, and at six centres, the decision was made "based upon the preference of the surgeon and/or the cardiologist". Similarly, significant variability in practice was evident in preoperative management, other surgical strategies, postoperative medical support, monitoring and discharge planning. Other than the randomized clinical trial of shunt type, no other medical or surgical management strategy was currently under investigation in a multi-centric or randomized trial in the centres who responded to the survey.
The survey emphasises the extreme variability in our current practices for treatment of children with hypoplastic left heart syndrome. While there are some areas for which there is consensus in management, the majority of our practices are variable between and within centres. These results emphasize that large multicentric trials and registries are necessary to improve care, and to answer important clinical questions, emphasizing the need to shift from analysis of experiences of single centres to multi-centric and multi-disciplinary collaboration.
c1 Correspondence to: Gil Wernovsky, MD, Division of Pediatric Cardiology, The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, 34th Street and Civic Centre Boulevard, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA. Tel: 001 215 590 6067; Fax: 001 215 590 5825; E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com


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Journal: Entropy, 2008
Volume: 10
Number: 33
Article: Applicability of Information Theory to the Quantification of Responses to Anthropogenic Noise by Southeast Alaskan Humpback Whales
Authors: Laurance R. Doyle, Brenda McCowan, Sean F. Hanser, Christopher Chyba, Taylor Bucci and J. Ellen Blue
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