text:
All eyes on June after an 'average' May
The very warm spell which has dominated our weather in recent days has come to an end, with rain affecting much of northern England today.
It's a wet end to a month which has seen a remarkable change from extreme cold to extreme warmth.
And it's a good example of how statistics can hide big swings in the weather.
Because statistically temperatures, sunshine and rainfall for May have turned out to be around normal.
But this masks a very cold first half of May, with some sharp frosts and heavy rain which brought an end to drought restrictions in parts of Yorkshire; and a very warm second half of May which saw temperatures of 27C (81F) across the region.
Weather Action's widely publicised forecast of the coldest, or near coldest May in 100 years in parts of the country, which appeared in The Express, has turned out in the end to be wide of the mark - despite what was a very cold first half - because of the heat which developed in the last 10 days.
The switch from one extreme to another in May follows March which was one of the warmest, driest and sunniest on record, and April, which was the wettest on record, continuing the very polarised weather we have been experiencing.
All eyes are now on June - and there's a strong indication that the first half of the month will be very unsettled, with low pressure bringing showers or longer spells of rain, some of which may be heavy at times.
More specifically for the Jubilee weekend northern Britain should have mostly dry weather, but parts of southern Britain could experience a washout on Sunday, with some of the rain continuing into Bank Holiday Monday.
Just how far north the rain gets on Sunday is very uncertain at the moment, but there is a risk of it pushing as far north as the Humber before it returns south later in the day - although the precise northern extent is open to considerable doubt at the moment.
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Comments Post your comment
Comment number 1.At 19:45 31st May 2012, jkiller56 wrote:
Yes, indeed - how statistics can mask true variations and patterns!
Once again - "Weather Action" speaks for itself. The most remarkable feature of their predictions is that people continue to believe them.
So, June seems likely to start cool and changable - but how it finishes may be more significant. By old climatological rule of thumb -the general pattern for summer is often established towards the end of the month - the start of what is sometimes called "the European monsoon" when a more persistant westerly flow tends to set in after the ups and downs of spring - the position of the jet stream being of course crucial as to whether fine or very unsettled weather predominates.
And yes Paul, yet another extreme month has followed others.
Comment number 2.At 21:36 31st May 2012, John Kendall wrote:
I noticed tonight that there was a lot of cloud seeding going on in the evening skies. Does this activity make any difference to weather forecasts?
Comment number 3.At 00:12 1st Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
We'll need to wait another few days for the official CET figure, but NetWeather run an approximation using nearby weather stations. According to them, the final May figure rounds to 12.5C, which is 1.2C above their 1971-2000 anomaly reference period.
I notice Net Weather's figure is often higher than the official CET one. Even so, it would seem that in CET at least, far from being "the coldest in 100 years", average May 2012 temperatures were *above* the long term average, and possibly in the top 20 warmest of the past 100 years.
I also take the point that in the first half of the month Weather Actions 'top 5 coldest' forecast at least was looking like a reasonable bet. But the bookies don't pay out at half time, and Piers Corbyn did specifically say "May", not "the first half of May".
It'll be interesting to see the reaction - if any!
Comment number 4.At 07:24 1st Jun 2012, PingoSan wrote:
Piers Corbyn, the man the Met Office fear. You can tell how much the alarmists worry about his accurate solar-based forecasts by how often they go on attack mode in this blog.
He does this all without the hundreds of millions the Met Office takes from the taxpayer for its unnecessary GIGO supercomputers.
Comment number 5.At 07:31 1st Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
Has anyone got a link or a copy of the actual forecast that he made? I'd like to see it.
From reading comments here over the last few weeks, it seems to me that the cold was predicted reasonably well although it didn't last as long as thought. Were other forecasters also predicting a cold spell in May at the same time. That is, how far out on a limb was this forecast when it was made?
Comment number 6.At 07:32 1st Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@ Pingosan
Is that the same Piers Corybyn who said on the 23rd that the warm weather would only last 2 days? Less attack mode, more LOL mode.
Comment number 7.At 07:40 1st Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
If you make 'extreme' predictions (Coldest in 100 yrs, hottest year ever, -20 degrees last winter, etc) and it doesn't actually happen, then you should expect some comeback. You were happy for the publicity at your prediction and you have to take it on the chin when the world doesn't match up.
Works for both sides.
Comment number 8.At 07:44 1st Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
jkiller said . . "Yes, indeed - how statistics can mask true variations and patterns!"
Which is why conclusions drawn from paleo temp reconstructions should be viewed with huge uncertainty. Or put another way, why claiming strong evidence of faster, stronger warming or highest global temps in 2million years (or whatever) is such a bag of . . .
Comment number 9.At 08:28 1st Jun 2012, ukpahonta wrote:
#3 newdwr54
You may be correct for the final May CET but it would surprise me if it was 12C or over!
Currently sitting at 12C up to the 30th so one more max and two min temps to take into account.
Comment number 10.At 09:30 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
and the MO/BBC prediction for May on the 17th April was? Piers Corbyn's prediction went awry on the 20/21st. No he did not correctly foresee the hot weather, but did anyone else in mid April?
Comment number 11.At 10:16 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
I have run a comparison between the daily CET temperatures of May 2012 and other May daily temperatures for the entire series (starting in 1772), and the correlation coefficients for months which come closest to this May are:
1841 = 0.736
1892 = 0.802
1920 = 0.837
All of the above months started cold and ended warm, with 1892 starting with a figure of 7.2c and ending on 18.8c, compared to 11.6c and 16c* in the case of 2012.
* The figures for 2012 are still provisional and the figure for the 31st, which is not yet published, is estimated at 16c.
The final monthly average figures for these months were:
1841 = 12.7c
1892 = 11.6c
1920 = 11.8c
2012 = 12.0c (provisional)
So in terms of the historical CET record, the daily temperature variation this May is not unprecedented.
Comment number 12.At 10:22 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#4. - PingoSan wrote:
"Piers Corbyn, the man the Met Office fear. You can tell how much the alarmists worry about his accurate solar-based forecasts by how often they go on attack mode in this blog."
Nobody could call me alarmist, but I don't think it is "attacking" Corbyn, to point out that his forecast was wrong. Is there any statistical evidence to support the assertion that his forecasts are accurate?
That said, I believe that the M.O. also make unsubstantiated claims regarding the accuracy of their forecasts.
Comment number 13.At 10:25 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#9. - ukpahonta wrote:
"Currently sitting at 12C up to the 30th so one more max and two min temps to take into account."
Actually, quite a lot more min. temps.
The provisional figures tend to be over-stated because they do not necessarily include the lowest temp. for each day.
Comment number 14.At 10:33 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#10. - Boanta wrote:
"and the MO/BBC prediction for May on the 17th April was? Piers Corbyn's prediction went awry on the 20/21st. No he did not correctly foresee the hot weather, but did anyone else in mid April?"
The point is that P.C. made the claim that he could forecast the temp. for May, and that it would be one of the coldest on record. Whatever method he uses apparently failed to foresee the warmer temperatures at the end of May, so I don't think it is unreasonable to point that out.
Comment number 15.At 11:39 1st Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
QV - am I the only one who hasn't actually seen/read this forecast? Was it clearly intended as a May monthly average forecast or was it more casually worded?
My view is that if no other forecasters saw the cold period coming then he deserves some credit.
I think most of us regard long range forecasting as virtually impossible in detail due to the chaos in the system, but that doesn't preclude some skill being possible for more general outlooks. If Corbyn thinks otherwise, then maybe he's fallen for his own salesmanship.
As you point out, the difficulty is measuring this skill. For example, I reckon that over the last 6 months my Hollybush has outperformed just about everyone including the met office!
Comment number 16.At 11:44 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
14: he has indeed recognised the failure to predict the week of hot weather and has amended his technique in that recognition. Most of the month was indeed cool and at times cold.
Comment number 17.At 11:58 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
15: He released the forecast on the 16/17th April. His predictions were for an unusually cold May in north and east Britain( not just England and not for western Britain). The implication here was for cold north easterly winds. For much of the month this was correct with several places in Scotland having record or near record minima. Even during the hot spell there was am easterly component in the winds or a col. In the last few days of May the 'pattern' returned to that which he predicted. You can always try the Weather Action site and check the comments section. There's even a phone number and you can always ask him yourself.
Comment number 18.At 12:40 1st Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
Boanta - if your description of his forecast is accurate, then I would say his forecast had real merit. In six months time, people will remember April as generally wet and May as generally cold. I doubt that he would appreciate a call from me.
Comment number 19.At 12:45 1st Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
"The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds. Snow at times especially on high ground in NE / East. Spring put in reverse.
Confidence of E / SE England mean temps: Coldest in 100yrs 80%; In 5 coldest in 100yrs 90%"
No mention of the North in that prediction...
Comment number 20.At 15:35 1st Jun 2012, thesnowman wrote:
I know Piers methodology is a well kept secret, but does anyone else here wonder if he isn't drawing from the work of Theodor Landscheidt? It might explain why his forecasts are occasionally close, if not quite, on the button - and lets be honest, who else's are? I do not want to trigger a slanging match on degrees of accuracy of the various parties - but it would be interesting to hear what others think of Landscheidts work and if it might be being used. If Piers is around, maybe he could comment too...
In case you haven't seen it, I have posted a further response on the previous thread.
Comment number 21.At 15:56 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
19: I believe NE stands for NORTH -east.
Comment number 22.At 16:03 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
19: The Cairngorm Ski Company reported excellent sking conditions and were very busy during May. Lying in North-east Scotland and Britain this would not suprise Piers Corbyn.
Comment number 23.At 16:26 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#15. - lateintheday wrote:
"QV - am I the only one who hasn't actually seen/read this forecast? Was it clearly intended as a May monthly average forecast or was it more casually worded?
My view is that if no other forecasters saw the cold period coming then he deserves some credit."
I am sure that someone here posted a link to the Weather Action website, but I can't for the life of me find it now.
I am not sure if the quotes that others have posted are the entire forecast.
From what I recall, some GFS forecasts (e.g. the NCEP one on the Ryan Maue site), were also forecasting a colder than average start to May, but I am not sure of the timing and the precise numbers.
Comment number 24.At 16:29 1st Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#16. - Boanta wrote:
"14: he has indeed recognised the failure to predict the week of hot weather and has amended his technique in that recognition. Most of the month was indeed cool and at times cold."
That's nice to know, but did he provide any details?
Comment number 25.At 17:07 1st Jun 2012, jazznick wrote:
To allow Piers Corbyn a right of reply he made a comment here including the admission of the unexpected warmth of late May:-
Comment number 26.At 17:11 1st Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
25: a very useful contribution and I hope this will help 24. Googling Weather Action also works and once on it's easy just to post a comment and ask.
Comment number 27.At 17:13 1st Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@21 Boanta
Sorry I meant no mention of the North in his main 100yrs prediction. The bit with levels of high confidence, 90% chance of it being within the 5 coldest May's in 100 yrs. That prediction was for East/South East of England.
Comment number 28.At 17:30 1st Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
5. lateintheday wrote:
"Has anyone got a link or a copy of the actual forecast that he made? I'd like to see it."
Hope this link works: http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5
Comment number 29.At 17:58 1st Jun 2012, Crytic wrote:
We holidayed in Majorca mid April and it was overcast cold and wet. About the same time last year the sky was cloudless and it was warm. This year on a cold murky day on the islands east coast we had lunch and the conversation with the waiter turned to the weather. I explained that the 'extreme' weather was being caused by excessive jet stream waviness. I think he got the idea?
Then coincidently an article from Yale University appears on the EcoGeek site
Said much the same thing only it added
"Theory tells us that a decrease in the west-east flow tends to slow the eastward progression of waves in the jet stream. Because these waves control the formation and movement of storms, slower wave progression means that weather conditions will be more persistent. In other words, they will seem more "stuck.""
Paul you're not explaining yourself too well. The met office really needs to show the position of the jet stream more often but you can infer its location from the pressure charts. Long periods of hot and cold weather are going to be the norm; so much for a temperate climate.
Comment number 30.At 18:50 1st Jun 2012, Athena2 wrote:
Having read Corbyn's comments in todays Guardian
I think Corbyn should be hired by the England football team - his skill with goalposts would be invaluable!!
Comment number 31.At 21:33 1st Jun 2012, blunderbunny wrote:
Piers is sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but he's normally contrite when wrong...... given the lack of millions of pounds worth of super computer I'd be inclined to cut him a little slack.... regardless, the best way of telling what the weather in short term is still going to be looking out the window and a good old fashioned barometer ;-)
Long/medium term, you can take your pick, the Met Office generally tend to a warmist persuasion..... whilst Piers tends to plough his own rather secretive furrow.....
He gets a lot of stick, but he's definitely no worse than our rather over assertive civil servants.
Comment number 32.At 11:37 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#25. - jazznick wrote:
"To allow Piers Corbyn a right of reply he made a comment here including the admission of the unexpected warmth of late May:-
I am afraid that I cannot get that link to work.
Comment number 33.At 12:06 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
Met. Office anomaly maps show that mean temperatures for most of the North and East of G.B. were within +/- 0.05c of the 1961-1990 average:
The remainder of the country was between + 0.05c and +1.5c
Piers Corbyn seems to have been generally correct for the month as a whole, but it the general accuracy has been overshadowed by extreme talk of "coldest May for 100 years".
Comment number 34.At 12:11 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
Please note that the above map seems to have defaulted to "Mean daily maximum temperature" and the 1971-2000 anomaly.
To see the "Mean temperature" and 1961-1990, you will have to select those.
Comment number 35.At 12:52 2nd Jun 2012, ukpahonta wrote:
Confirmed by the MO coldest May ever, Pity you can't show screen shots:
May -327.7C Anomoly -338.8C
I'm sure that it will be corrected soon, at least I hope so.
Comment number 36.At 12:58 2nd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
35. ukpahonta:
Looks like I have to take a few things back!?
Comment number 37.At 13:10 2nd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
33. QuaesoVeritas:
Your link is actually to 'mean daily *maximum* temperature', and the reference period is 1971-2000.
If you select 'mean temperature' from the climate variable list you'll see that almost all of South Central England was +0.5 to +1.5C above the anomaly reference for May 2012. Using the WMO recommended 1961-1990 anomaly the area of above average temperatures is even broader.
Corbyn's prediction was for "The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and East parts with a record run of bitter Northerly winds."
Therefore I think mean temperatures are called for, as is the longer term anomaly reference period.
Comment number 38.At 13:21 2nd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
34. QuaesoVeritas:
Re my 37: sorry, I missed your 34 before posting 37.
Would you agree with my assessment that using the mean temperature and 1961-1990 makes Corbyn's forecast for May 2012 more or less completely wrong?
Comment number 39.At 13:24 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#37. - newdwr54 wrote:
"Your link is actually to 'mean daily *maximum* temperature', and the reference period is 1971-2000. "
Please see my subsequent post.
For some reason, the map seems to default to mean maximum and 1971-2000.
Comment number 40.At 13:27 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
Sorry, I missed your #38 before my #39 !
Now I have to wait 2 min before I can post this!
Comment number 41.At 13:40 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#38. - newdwr54 wrote:
"Would you agree with my assessment that using the mean temperature and 1961-1990 makes Corbyn's forecast for May 2012 more or less completely wrong?"
As I said in my post #33, he was *generally* correct in terms of the overall weather pattern, but completely wrong in terms of the very cold temp.
I think this is the case whether you use the 61-90 or 71-00 averages.
Actually, a more meaningful comparison would probably be vs 1911-1940.
Comment number 42.At 13:56 2nd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
41. QuaesoVeritas:
If you select 'Mean daily minimum temp' using either 61-90 or 71-00 you should see that the entire SE of England was above average, and in places +1.5 to +2.5 above average.
There is no noticeable cold bias in the East using this option, i.e. cold days in the east weren't particularly colder than they were elsewhere. Only in the extreme north of Scotland were mean daily minimum temps below average in May.
The best we can say is that warm days in May weren't *as* warm in parts of the SE as they were elsewhere - but cold days weren't any colder than elsewhere either.
No doubt Weather Action will count this as a sweeping victory.
Comment number 43.At 14:17 2nd Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
If he had said 'May will have periods of pretty cold weather' then he would of been right. He didn't, instead he went for a headline grabbing statement which didn't come true.
Comment number 44.At 14:20 2nd Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
Oh and the reason the forecast fell over is because we are entering a mini-ice age... no really!
Comment number 45.At 14:40 2nd Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
Comment number 46.At 19:31 2nd Jun 2012, Tim wrote:
I would like to see some global warming. Up to 2000 and just past it we were seeing some warming, but that was due to the sun going through a very high peak. Since 2006 there hasn't been a decent summer. It is all a big myth, by governments to tax us and business to use it as a way of making money out of us.
Comment number 47.At 21:05 2nd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
46. Tim wrote:
"Up to 2000 and just past it we were seeing some warming, but that was due to the sun going through a very high peak."
But since 2000 solar activity has dropped and temperatures have risen.
If it's just the Sun, then how can this be? If the Sun is the cause of the warming, then has it warmed during the period in which since solar activity fell?
Comment number 48.At 21:19 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#46. - Tim wrote:
"Up to 2000 and just past it we were seeing some warming, but that was due to the sun going through a very high peak."
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that.
Do you mean a peak in sunspots?
The highest peak in the 12 month m.a. sunspot number was in 1958 (cycle 19), followed by a much lower max. in 1969 (20). The peaks around 1980 (21) and 1990 (22), were relatively high, but not as high as in 1958. The latest peak, around 2001 (23), was lower than those around 58, 80 and 90, and not much higher than 69.
Also, the 10 and 20 year m.a. ssn both peaked around 1965, so why did it take until 1998 for temperatures to peak, if that was related to ssn?
Comment number 49.At 23:18 2nd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
After being relatively low until about the 28th., the AMSU CH5 temperature anomaly has taken an upward turn over the last 3 days, but this is too late to make a great deal of difference to the overall May anomaly.
Based on the figures up to the 31st, I am estimating the May temperature anomaly figures to be as follows:
UAH = 0.252c +/- 0.04c
RSS = 0.225c +/- 0.03c
HADCRUT3 = 0.40c +/- 0.05c
The above are all slightly lower than the respective anomalies for April, but the upward turn in temperatures during the last few days continues, June may see a return to higher anomalies.
Comment number 50.At 13:17 3rd Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
Not to labour the point too much further, but according to MO data, the regional minimum daily average temperature recorded in 'England SE/ Central S' for May 2012 was +8.2C.
This places it inside the top ten *warmest* May minimum daily average temperatures recorded in past 100 years.
Comment number 51.At 13:28 3rd Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#50. - newdwr54 wrote:
"Not to labour the point too much further, but according to MO data, the regional minimum daily average temperature recorded in 'England SE/ Central S' for May 2012 was +8.2C."
Personally, I think that in terms of the Piers Corbyn forecast, the mean temperature for E/NE England is probably more relevant, but even that puts it in the top half of the temperature range since 1910.
Comment number 52.At 22:34 3rd Jun 2012, greensand wrote:
My only interest in short term weather is how it effects the growing season, (listen to the shipping forecast and work it out) however the following may be of interest to others:-
" Who are you calling a charlatan?"
"For Monbiot to call Corbyn - a private citizen - a charlatan while keeping silent on publicly funded scientists seems...opportunistic."
I do hope George is still tending his raised beds in deepest Welsh Wales.
Comment number 53.At 09:43 4th Jun 2012, Tim wrote:
Remember as we float through the galaxy, the density of the matter changes and can reduce or allow more sun rays to hit us, on top of the sun going through warming and cooling periods. The best evidence is the temperature of the earth in 1000A which was warmer than now, the lack of sun in the dark ages when the Thames froze over. Most evidence is False and a diversion.
Comment number 54.At 12:58 4th Jun 2012, Adrian Buckland wrote:
To illustrate how different things have become the timing of the disappearance
of the 528 line is striking. The 528 thickness line shows where the temperature
between 1000 and 500 mb has an average temperature of 0 degrees c. I definitely remember that on the Met Office charts from say Newfoundland to Western Russia a pool of 528 (i.e. deep cold air) always clung on till the end of June and reappeared about Mid August.
Last year was very different the 528 vanished on the 8th June. and didn't reappear till the last week of August (it vanished again during that extraordinary late Sep/early Oct heatwave). This year it disappears again just as early. Looks to me very suspiciously like a step change in the way the atmosphere is behaving -perhaps hand in hand with the low Arctic ice extents we are also getting?
Comment number 55.At 15:46 4th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
Apparently 46 people, including 6 of those taking part in the Diamond Jubilee river pageant had to be given treatment by medics after suffering from the effects of cold and wet weather.
Having said that, it may have been partially due to them not wearing appropriate clothing for the weather.
No doubt the cold/wet weather will be blamed by some on "climate change", or "global weirding", but if it had been exceptionally warm, and the spectators had been treated for heat-stroke instead, it would have been blamed on the same thing. Actually, the weather was very similar on Coronation Day, in 1953, but more people wore raincoats and hats in those days.
Those of us who are old enough, will know that the British weather has always been this variable, and it no doubt always will be.
Comment number 56.At 16:29 4th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
The May UAH anomaly is 0.289c, slightly lower than the April figure of 0.299c.
While this is just within my estimated range of 0.252 +/- 0.04c, I must admit that I am surprised that it is so high.
No doubt when the daily UAH figures are published, and they can be compared with the daily AQUA ch5 figures, that will shed some light on the situation.
The N.H. anomaly is up from 0.413c to 0.439c and the S.H. is down from 0.185c to 0.139c.
Comment number 57.At 16:44 4th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
Has Dr Roy gone back to a 4th order polynomial fit? I wonder why?
Comment number 58.At 16:57 4th Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
A large Coronal Hole has appeared on the Sun and the effects are due on Earth 5-7th June. So if the solarists are correct we might expect noticeable differences from standard weather predictions. The Countryfile forecast indicated a cold air mass over us, and indeed most of the North Atlantic for the whole week, with the Jet Stream well to the south. So will be easy to see any dramatic flipping.
Comment number 59.At 17:14 4th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#57. - john_cogger wrote:
"Has Dr Roy gone back to a 4th order polynomial fit? I wonder why?"
Back to?
When did he last use that?
Comment number 60.At 17:18 4th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#58. - Boanta wrote:
"A large Coronal Hole has appeared on the Sun and the effects are due on Earth 5-7th June."
Apparentlly it looks a bit like a chicken!
If this appears on the news, everyone will be running around like headless ones!
Comment number 61.At 17:29 4th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@59 QuaesoVeritas
newdwr54 talked about it in the last thread. 2009 was mentioned for the 4th order, then no trend line for a while, then 3rd order up to last month.
Comment number 62.At 17:39 4th Jun 2012, Boanta wrote:
57. No, it's just the way he walks.
Comment number 63.At 17:54 4th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
56. QuaesoVeritas wrote:
"The May UAH anomaly is 0.289c, slightly lower than the April figure of 0.299c.
While this is just within my estimated range of 0.252 +/- 0.04c, I must admit that I am surprised that it is so high."
I was just about to congratulate you on your accuracy! If Piers Corbyn had predicted that one as accurately as you just did he'd be demanding a Knighthood.
One point of interest re the UAH data is that Anthony Watts, last time I checked 5 mins ago, has still not updated the UAH chart in his 'Global Temperature Page' (Reference Pages) with April's UAH value, never mind May's. Maybe he was holding out for a drop in May?
Comment number 64.At 18:09 4th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
61. john_cogger wrote:
"2009 was mentioned for the 4th order, then no trend line for a while, then 3rd order up to last month."
That's right John, and well spotted.
Actually I think it's a 'typo' by Spencer. The published chart looks a lot more like he's added a 3rd order polynomial trend line, not a 4th. A 4th order one makes the line level out and not appear to dip - and we can't have that, can we?
QV and others, if you want a bit of fun, try adding a 6th order polynomial trend line to the UAH data. This was the trend line of choice for 'sceptics' such as Allan MacRae during late 2008, when there was a temporary cooling period globally. (See for instance: http://icecap.us/images/uploads/uah7908.JPG )
You'll see why it has now been quietly dropped by 'sceptics'.
Comment number 65.At 18:31 4th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#63. - newdwr54 wrote:
"I was just about to congratulate you on your accuracy! If Piers Corbyn had predicted that one as accurately as you just did he'd be demanding a Knighthood."
To be fair, it's an estimate, not a prediction, since I have the advantage of knowing the AQUA CH5 figures, but while it should be neutral, the actual figure always seems to come out on the high side.
Comment number 66.At 12:12 5th Jun 2012, jazznick wrote:
For interest/balance perhaps this item from Climate Realists will explain why Piers'
forecast went a bit awry at the end of May.
The Sun is the major driver of Piers' forecasts so the GLE on 17th May was pivotal.
Comment number 67.At 12:23 5th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@66 jazznick
Piers only has an accuracy of 80% from that article (with a now standard dig at the Met Office) yet he was 90% sure that May would be within the 5 coldest. Is that 90% of 80%?
Comment number 68.At 13:41 5th Jun 2012, jazznick wrote:
@67 john_cogger
Piers has every right to dig at the MO. To claim to forecast anything while ignoring solar influence is just expensive guesswork based on the movement of pressure systems and the speed/direction of the jet-stream alone.
You are directing your comments at a scientist who is trying to work out the link between what the sun/moon does and HOW this pushes the jet-stream around, to put it at it's simplest. He combines current solar influences with historic weather data and what the sun/moon effect was at the time in order to search for patterns. The more he does this, the better he gets.
The 22yr magnetic cycle seems to be key here.
His aim is to predict serious climate switches where there is a potential danger to crops, property and life itself, not to tell you if it's safe to put your washing out tomorrow.
Piers' recent forecast fell down because the sun threw a rare GLE at us. Once this passed we went back to the cold, wet, hail again.
Give the guy some credit for not just accepting that 'weather just happens' in a totally chaotic manner and that there are solar effects that can warn us of dangerous/unusual weather to come.
To it's credit the MO are belatedly intending to set up a Space Weather section so they clearly see some benefit in looking outside our atmosphere for climate drivers.
Comment number 69.At 14:08 5th Jun 2012, John Marshall wrote:
Yes May was 'average' as described by the UKMet office. Our temperatures at the moment are controlled by the jet stream which is south of us so keeping the available heat south of them. We are getting the cooler air masses from further north.
Will these jet streams go north? Good question and probably based on solar output in some way. The Sun is doing its pole change around now so magnetic output is down and it is the magnetic part of solar output that is important.
So wait and see. Are the solar scientists right or the AGW activists? I bet on the science.
Comment number 70.At 14:24 5th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@68 jazznick
"Piers' recent forecast fell down because the sun threw a rare GLE at us. Once this passed we went back to the cold, wet, hail again."
So how did his drought prediction for April fall down? The cold November? The gales in January? The white Christmas? And those are just misses on the UK forecast.
Or a prediction/statement of global cooling since 2003?
These rare events keep screwing up the forecasts on a monthly basis.
And he isn't a scientist until he starts publishing data or papers. Up to the point he does that he is a businessman with a self interest to slam the MO.
Comment number 71.At 14:29 5th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
Also the GLE hit earth on the 17th. The 'heat wave' was from the 23rd and lasted over a week. Boy that took a long time to get past.
Comment number 72.At 14:51 5th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
Oh also remember is was Piers who said that the heat wave would only last 2 days. He forecast that on the 25th, 2 days into his 2 day heat wave.
Comment number 73.At 15:58 5th Jun 2012, jazznick wrote:
@69 John Marshall
Thank you John - just the comment I would have hoped for from the more open minded amongst those here.
Clearly others @ 70+ think the MO can do no wrong, perhaps because of their stance on 'other matters'.
However the MO establishment have nothing to be proud of:-
Something is clearly wrong with the way weather/climate is currently being predicted and to expect more computers and bonuses to solve it is not going to work. Eventually solar influences are going to feature in weather and climate forecasting (hence the MO Solar Weather plans) and the sooner this is realized the better for the planet and it's people regardless of their views on CO2.
Comment number 74.At 16:18 5th Jun 2012, john_cogger wrote:
@73 jazznick
You keep mentioning the MO failures? Not sure how relevant they are to Piers failures? Then again he thinks they are 'lying scum' so maybe there is a link?
At no point have I said the MO are perfect or used them as a comparison against Piers. Yet you keep bringing them up? Maybe it's because of their stance on other issues?
Comment number 75.At 16:49 5th Jun 2012, jazznick wrote:
@74 john_cogger
If you actually read my final line above you will see that CO2 can be left out of the picture when it comes to this subject; regardless of Piers' colourful language and views on 'that matter'.
What I am trying to encourage is the urgent exploration of climate influences beyond the conventional. The status quo will not do. Building ever larger ivory towers of computers will only lead to wrong answers being arrived at more quickly. There is a big gap in our understanding of the area that Piers works in and for his work to be dismissed by you is short-sighted.
Clearly there is something significant going on here. It's about time it was seriously researched by the MO/Hadley Centre rather than our money being wasted on flogging the same old models.
Comment number 76.At 20:39 5th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
75. jazznick wrote:
"There is a big gap in our understanding of the area that Piers works in and for his work to be dismissed by you is short-sighted."
If he would open up his methods to peer reviewed scrutiny maybe it would help his cause?
As for the link you presented earlier, which blamed the failed forecast on "an M-class flare" on the Sun: If an apparently random event like this on the Sun can throw off a specific prediction so easily, then forecasters have no business making 90% confidence predictions.
In other words, if these "M-class flares", etc can randomly occur, and if they really do have a major impact on global atmospheric conditions, then all long-term weather forecasts are *useless*. They can't be made with *any* stated confidence level, because they rely in part on totally unpredictable events.
"M-class flares" and the like make Piers and co redundant.
(I seem to recall that a similar 'unforeseen' solar event was blamed for Piers' hopelessly wrong UK and US winter forecast for 2011/12.)
Comment number 77.At 22:12 5th Jun 2012, ukpahonta wrote:
This should be right up your alley:
Referenced in a post by Bob Tisdale:
Comment number 78.At 22:47 5th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
77. ukpahonta:
Is there some suggestion that ENSO has been ignored by the IPCC or mainstream climate science?
Comment number 79.At 22:58 5th Jun 2012, ukpahonta wrote:
#78 newdwr54
There is some suggestion that there is a connection between ENSO and Aqua Channel 5 Temperature with a three month lag. I thought that interesting!
Comment number 80.At 22:58 5th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#77. - ukpahonta wrote:
"This should be right up your alley:"
I have only had time to have a quick look at both links, but I am going to have to spend more time on the second one.
Obviously there appears to be be a correlation between the ONI and the AQUA CH5 anomaly but I honestly can't understand what it means when it says that "ONI leads temperature by 3 months". I don't think that it is as clear cut as that.
Sometimes the temperature appears to change before ONI, for example in the latest increase in temperatures.
If I can, I will try to replicate the numbers myself, as I can't tell precisely from the graph, where changes in the temperatures actually occur.
I am not entirely sure if an r-squared value of 0.37 is significant, but even if it is, I don't think it necessarily demonstrates causality, one way or another.
Comment number 81.At 23:01 5th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
My instinct is that you would get a similar r-squared figure, whether you used a lag of +3 months, -3 months, or zero.
I might try that, when I get time.
Comment number 82.At 14:53 6th Jun 2012, quake wrote:
maybe piers corbyn was right, cet page currently shows it was -327.7C on average in May
Comment number 83.At 16:03 6th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#82. - quake wrote:
"maybe piers corbyn was right, cet page currently shows it was -327.7C on average in May"
I think that ukpahonta pointed that out a few days ago.
It seems to have been fixed now.
Probably delayed due to the long weekend!
Comment number 84.At 16:46 6th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
re my posts #80 &81,
Needless to say, my instinct was wrong!
I managed to more or less replicate the AQUA CH5/ENSO correlation data and graphs on the lukewarmplanet blog and get similar results. Some of the monthly ONI figures look slightly different to those on the graph but the data may have been changed since the lukwarmplanet blog was written.
I understand now by the ONI data leading the CH5 data by 3 months, but actually it looks to me more like it is 6 months on the graph. That said, I get an figure for
r-squared of 0.362 for a 3 month offset (at June 2011). The difference between that and the 0.37 quoted on the site may be due to changes in the data.
I actually calculated the r and r-squared values for a range of offsets between ONI and AQUA CH5, of +6 to -6, where +3 corresponds to the 3 month offset used in the graph. The results were:
OFFSET r r^2
+6 0.572 0.327
+5 0.611 0.373
+4 0.627 0.393
+3 0.601 0.362
+2 0.528 0.279
+1 0.438 0.192
0 0.314 0.098
-1 0.173 0.030
-2 0.053 0.003
-3 -0.059 0.004
-4 -0.143 0.020
-5 -0.206 0.042
-6 -0.237 0.056
Sorry for the formatting.
It can be seen from the above that the strongest correlation is actually for an offset of 4 months and that the correlation falls towards an offset of zero, and is actually negative for an offset of -3 and beyond.
If the above figures are plotted, they actually produce a couple of nice curves, which suggest that the optimum offset is possibly a little over +4 months.
Of course, this opens up the prospect of using ONI to approximately forecast the likely monthly AQUA CH5 temperature, and also the UAH and other anomalies, for about 4 months ahead.
That said, on further reflection, perhaps an r-squared figure of around 0.39 is as much as you can expect, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, and I wouldn't expect such forecasts to be particularly accurate, but I might give it a go!
Comment number 85.At 17:35 6th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
I have just noticed that the ONI index covers 3 month overlapping periods, e.g. DJF, JFM, FMA etc, so this may account for the apparent 6 month offset on the graph on the lukewarmplanet blog, and the fact that I get a higher correlation at an offset of +4 than +3 months, but I haven't worked out exactly what the full implications are yet.
Comment number 86.At 17:39 6th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
There are also two versions of the files, due to the changes in the method of calculation of the index.
Comment number 87.At 21:42 6th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
Re your above recent posts; the relationship between AQUA CH5 and ENSO is something I've been collating for a few months.
I used correlation analysis and found that 11-12 weeks gave the best fit. I've been able to semi-successfully forecast week-ahead temps in CH5 using this method for a few weeks now. It's not perfect, but it's not too bad either - to date.
Something to bear in mind is that ENSO just amplifies CH5 temps - there are also the normal annual temperature fluctuations to consider.
However, based on this relationship, my crude forecast is that temps in CH5 should on average increase at an above normal rate for about two weeks (up to the week ending 17th June), then return to more or less normal for the time of year for a week or two.
I realise that, Like Piers Corbyn, I'm putting my neck on the block here. However, unlike Piers, I promise to admit if my forecast turns out to be drivel. And I don't care really; I just do it for fun, not for a living.
Comment number 88.At 22:54 6th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#87. - newdwr54 wrote:
"Re your above recent posts; the relationship between AQUA CH5 and ENSO is something I've been collating for a few months."
Thanks, I was aware that you were doing something along those lines, but I didn't know how formally you were doing it.
Which ENSO measure are you using to calculate the correlation?
There appear to be two versions of the ONI, the most recent of which appears to have been calculated using multiple 30 year base periods, in an attempt to remove any warming trend. I think that would make it less useful for predicting CH5, as it would tend to under-estimate recent temperatures, but I am going to do some comparison between both versions.
I believe that the monthly nino-3.4 index also uses the new multiple base periods, which seems to have the effect of reducing the most recent anomalies.
At the moment I am just dabbling, so you probably know more about this than me.
Comment number 89.At 01:12 7th Jun 2012, RobWansbeck wrote:
Anyone agree with this:
Comment number 90.At 08:44 7th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
This article in Nature Geoscience, seems to suggest that a significant part of any recent sea level rise may be due to "unsustainable groundwater use".
If I interpret this correctly, it seems to mean that we are extracting groundwater at an unsustainable rate.
Of course, there will be some who argue that the ultimate cause is "climate change", but in reality I think it is mainly due to exponential growth in the human population and economic growth. Without that growth, any minor variations in climate would be manageable.
Comment number 91.At 11:41 7th Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
rob@89 - looks like you've got no takers. The silence is deafening.
Comment number 92.At 12:03 7th Jun 2012, John Marshall wrote:
#73 Thank you jazznick.
I used to work using Met. Office information, I flew in the RAF, and found it wanting. They have not improved despite the computer power. They also refuse to believe observations if these fall outside their models. I was told once that an observation as to Cb height limitation was wrong and I must have had the height wrong because their models stated something else. They never learn.
Comment number 93.At 12:26 7th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
88. QuaesoVeritas:
I'm using Australian Met Office NINO3.4 weekly: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.txt
It's available from here, usually on a Tuesday (make sure you select 3.4 from the drop down list and select 'data sorted by date': http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml
Comment number 94.At 12:56 7th Jun 2012, jackcowper wrote:
Corbyn's method has been proven in peer review literature:
Early Weather Action (Solar Weather Technique) skill was independently verified in a peer-reviewed paper by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34.
If you want to read summary of the report then look in the comments by me here:
Comment number 95.At 13:14 7th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#94. - jackcowper wrote:
"Corbyn's method has been proven in peer review literature:"
Didn't that just relate to gales over a 2 year period?
I don't consider Piers Corbyn a "charlatan", but I just require more substantive statistical evidence than others apparently do.
I am also not uncritical of the UKMO, but if they had predicted one of the coldest May's in 100 years, I would be critical of them too, with good reason.
Comment number 96.At 13:25 7th Jun 2012, QuaesoVeritas wrote:
#93. - newdwr54 wrote:
"I'm using Australian Met Office NINO3.4 weekly: "
Thanks, do you know if the weekly figures are also based on multiple base period?
I have been looking at ONI in relation to predicting HadCRUT3.
Actually, using last months HadCRUT3 figure ALONE to predict this months (with no adjustment), produces a long-term correlation of 0.93, but I have so far been unable to improve on that by any adjustment of the prediction using ONI.
Comment number 97.At 13:49 7th Jun 2012, newdwr54 wrote:
94. jackcowper:
Wheeler's paper was quoted by Leo Hickman in the Guardian last week: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012/jun/01/whatever-happened-coldest-may-years?newsfeed=true
It studied Weather Action forecasts of *gales only* over a two year period in the 1990s. The study found a 52% success rate. Quoting directly from the Wheeler (2001), Hickman says:
"Superficially these data suggest a degree of forecast success. This is, however, to overlook some sources of ambiguity. One of the most important of these is the question of seasonality of gales, which are more frequent in winter than in summer. Indeed the majority of successes in category d [(no forecast-no event] can be attributed to those summer periods when no gales were forecast — and none occurred. It is, self-evidently, not very difficult to predict successfully the non-occurrence of a rare event!"
A peer reviewed assessment of Weather Actions winter UK/US 2011/12, and UK May 2012 forecasts might find rather less flattering results.
Comment number 98.At 14:38 7th Jun 2012, lateintheday wrote:
depends on who does the peer review. . .
Comment number 99.At 15:20 7th Jun 2012, jackcowper wrote:
Peer review in climate circles is usually done by one pals, just ask Mann, Jones, Briffa et all.
It's a pity that Hickman cannot be as balanced in his reporting, but if you will read the Guardian - what do you expect?
Comment number 100.At 20:46 7th Jun 2012, jkiller56 wrote:
To John Cogger~70 - Exactly, Corbyn is a businessman, not a scientist - until as you say, he presents his data and theories for scientific scrutiny. "Trade secrets" are just that - a good way of making money.
to newdwr54 ~ 76 - Precisely! If the sun is in the habit of throwing out "unpedictable" flares or whatever - how can it possibly be of any use for making reliable forecasts? As you say - this has been blamed before.
But by all means, people, pay your money for something that is logically inconsistent and unverified. Personally I'll stick with Russell Grant.


text:
GREEN BAY, Wis. — Skogen's Festival Foods will launch the NuVal nutritional scoring system in its 13 stores in August. The system assigns foods a score from 1 to 100; the higher the score, the higher the food's nutrition. The retailer's registered dietitian Stephanie Walker decided on NuVal after reviewing several systems ranging from Smart Choices, which has since been discontinued, to Hannaford Bros.' Guiding Stars. "NuVal has very sophisticated science behind the score. That complex ...
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Learn how MacUpdate Desktop can install apps on MacUpdate with the simple click of the icon. Plus, keep all your apps updated.
MailMate is an ambitious, powerful email client for OS X. It is designed for and only supports IMAP while still working in full when offline. MailMate has state-of-the-art searching capabilities and correspondingly advanced smart mailboxes. Extensive keyboard control and dynamic signatures ensure a highly efficient workflow when reading and answering emails. Alternative message viewer layouts and a browser-inspired design ensure easy and rapid access to related messages.
- Universal mailboxes: One Inbox for all of your IMAP accounts.
- Extensive keyboard control: Switch mailboxes or
What's New
- [New] Various new hidden preferences, including MmSMTPAlternativeEnabled and MmSMTPUTF8Enabled
- [Changed] Experimental workaround for Exchange IMAP bug
- [Fixed] The link displayed in the message view (when hovering over a link) was not always correct
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I usually only lurk around in the January 2010 birth club board, but was excited to discover this group.
I was hoping I could get some advice from all you RN mommies.
I am currently a Physical Therapist Assistant and also have a Bachelor's in Psychology.
I have been debating for quite some time if I should complete an accelerated BSN program that is offered at University of FL (close to where we will be living).
My PTA job is good right now, however the main thing that appeals to me about the nursing field is the ability to have 4 whole days off with my little one (I am due in 4 wks). I also love patient care, so no, I wouldn't just do it for the schedule or money.
So my question is, are nursing hours really as great as they seem when it comes to being a mommy? Is it nice to have 4 whole days off, or does it rarely work out that way?
I am hoping 12 hr shifts will always be an option, because that seems awesome. Also, is it possible to find a nursing position where you could just work 2 - 12 hr shifts per week rather than 3?
Thanks for any advice you may have!


text:
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The Department of Game and Fish will conduct three public meetings in northeastern New Mexico this month to explain how landowners will be affected by new rules that change the way the state allocates private-land antelope licenses.
The State Game Commission adopted the new rules affecting the Antelope Private Lands Use System, or A-PLUS, at its December 2010 meeting in Clovis.
The rules were revised and adopted after consideration of Department recommendations, public comments during several commission meetings, more than 30 statewide public meetings, and hundreds of written public comments submitted over a period of more than two years.
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — President Barack Obama has signed a disaster declaration for New Mexico after the state was left cleaning up damage resulting from days of extreme cold temperatures and a natural gas outage that affected thousands of customers.
The president's declaration of a major disaster in the state clears the way for federal aid to supplement state and local recovery efforts in several counties and tribal jurisdictions.
The counties include Lincoln, Otero, Rio Arriba, Sierra, Socorro and Taos.
Federal funding will be available on a cost-sharing basis for emergency work and the repair or replacement of facilities damaged by the severe winter weather.
WASHINGTON – Deputy Secretary of Energy Daniel Poneman today announced the signing of an agreement to extend nuclear security cooperation between the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and the Federal Environmental, Industrial and Nuclear Supervision Service of Russia (Rostechnadzor) for an additional seven years
Speaking at the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Washington, Deputy Secretary Poneman announced the agreement, which will allow NNSA to continue work with Rostechnadzor to enhance its nuclear security regulations and inspection and training capabilities.
KALISPELL, Mont. — The Montana Supreme Court has upheld a Workers' Compensation Court ruling that about $65,000 in medical bills incurred by a man who was mauled while feeding the bears at a tourist attraction should be covered by workers' compensation, despite the fact the man had smoked marijuana on the day of the attack.
The court filed its opinion Tuesday, the Daily Inter Lake reported.
Brock Hopkins filed a claim with the Uninsured Employers' Fund in December 2007, saying he suffered injuries to his legs and buttocks when he was mauled by a bear at Great Bear Adventures near Glacier National Park on Nov. 2, 2007. Hopkins was treated for his injuries at a Kalispell hospital.
Brisket night
The Los Alamos High School NJROTC will have a brisket dinner from 5:30-7 p.m. at the Posse Shack on North Mesa. The price will be $10 and the menu includes brisket, corn, potato salad, roll, cookies and a drink.
School board meeting
The Los Alamos Board of Education meeting has been rescheduled for 4 p.m. Friday at Suite V of 2075 Trinity Drive.
CIP business
There will be a special Capital Improvement Projects Business Meeting at 5:15 p.m. today at the Community Building Council Chambers.
Star party
Pajarito Environmental Education Center will host a Star Party at 7 p.m. March 26 with Dr. James Maxwell. Learn about the universe with a short illustrated talk.
Golf enthusiasts won't be asked to pony up any additional fees this season even though the county is embarking on an ambitious $5.3 million makeover of the Los Alamos Golf Course clubhouse.
The Los Alamos County Council approved the 2011-2012 fees for the public course during its regular meeting Tuesday night.
The council's decision to hold the line on fees comes on the heels of a recent scathing review of the fee structure in the New Mexico Piglet Book, which takes aim at pointing out government waste of taxpayer dollars.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Returning home to some messy politics, President Barack Obama is confronting a battery of challenges, from a spending standoff that threatens to shut down the government to congressional angst over the U.S.-led attacks on Libya. Foreign crises rage across Africa and the Middle East, and Americans still want the economy to improve more quickly.
AMMAN, Jordan (AP) — Hundreds of Jordanians set up a protest camp in a main square in the capital on Thursday to press demands for the ouster of the prime minister and wider public freedoms.
The 500 protesters appeared to be mostly university students or unemployed graduates unaffiliated with any political party. Many said they met through Facebook last month to launch a group called the Jordanian Youth Movement.
HONOLULU (AP) — Fifty years ago, Elvis Presley helped raised money and directed much-needed attention to the stalled efforts to build the USS Arizona Memorial. The King is now being remembered for his contributions as the historic sites at Pearl Harbor enters a new era.
Pacific Historic Parks, in partnership with Elvis Presley Enterprises Inc., will start selling T-shirts on Friday for $24.95 to commemorate the iconic crooner's historic benefit concert at Pearl Harbor's Bloch Arena on March 25, 1961. Proceeds will support the educational programs at the USS Arizona Memorial and the new $56 million Pearl Harbor Visitor Center.
BENGHAZI, Libya (AP) — French airstrikes hit an air base deep inside Libya and NATO ships patrolled the coast to block arms and mercenaries from flowing in to help Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. Other coalition bombers struck artillery, tanks and parked helicopters, officials said Thursday.
The French strikes overnight hit a base about 250 kilometers (155 miles) south of the Libyan coastline, French military spokesman Thierry Burkhard told reporters in Paris on Thursday without elaborating on the target or possible damage.
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Big problem. Have a WP 3.5.1 site that I just started working on and all of a sudden, I can't get past the wp-login screen. I type in the correct username and password and it just redirects back to the wp-login screen.
First thought I had was to rename my plugins folder since I saw a lot of posts regarding that issue. So I changed it to plugins_old but nothing changed. Still get the loop. I then got rid of custom functions from my functions.php file. Nope. So the obvious issues you might expect aren't the issue here. Check .htaccess too and looked just fine. No issues there either. So why is this possibly happening?


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So we're graduating into being a pretty high traffic site. And once in a while I get database errors - either the site doesn't load at all, or you get an error when trying to publish or something. I don't think this affects readers because we've got super cache on, but I worry these problems will start to get more frequent as traffic goes up.
I really know nothing about databases, so wonder two things:
1) A good 101 resource, specific to WP sites, that could get me started
2) An easy 1st or 2nd tip that I could use to get to a better place - even if it's just something I should ask my host to do (mediatemple)


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Water & Wastewater Companies in Iceland
Current filtering criteriaYou can remove a filter by clicking on the x
Sesselja House, Center for Sustainability
based in Selfoss, ICELAND
Sesselja House is a sustainable building and an educational center focusing on environmental issues. It is located in a beautiful area in South Iceland. Environmental education in various forms takes place there throughout the year, such as a study abroad program for foreign students, educational meetings for the general public and exhibitions. There is good cooperation ...
Star-Oddi Ltd.
based in Gardabaer, ICELAND
Star-Oddi is a manufacturer of innovative scientific research tools, mainly small sized, reliable data loggers for ecosystem and animal studies and real time telemetry temperature loggers. Products include submersible and implantable temperature loggers, and sensors such as depth (pressure), salinity (conductivity), tilt angle, light, humidity, acoustic and magnetic field ...
Iceland Drilling Ltd.
based in Kopavogur, ICELAND
Iceland Drilling Ltd. is a leading high technical company in the field of high temperature geothermal drilling and has many decades of experience in both high and low temperature drilling. The company possesses a fleet of new hydraulic rigs and modern drilling equipment that can be transferred swiftly from one part of the world to another. Iceland Drilling operates ...
Arvo-Tec Oy
Distributor in ICELAND
Arvo-Tec Oy is specialised in fish feeding systems for freshwater farms that produce fry, and in water recirculation technology that minimises environmental impact and optimises growing conditions. Arvo-Tec Oy is located in Huutokoski but has operations all over Finland. Feeding technology for aquaculture. Fish farm feeders. Aquaculture feeders.
Vatnaskil Consulting Engineers
based in 108 Reykjavik, ICELAND
Vatnaskil Consulting Engineers is provided specialized consulting, simulation and modelling services to private corporations and governmental organizations in Iceland and abroad. We specialize in geothermal reservoir, groundwater, surface runoff, air pollution and environmental modelling. Our employees have a strong educational background and extensive experience within ...
based in Reykjavik, ICELAND
EFLA is a general engineering and consulting firm with a staff of professionals well trained to provide quality service in a wide variety of fields. The Company's 270 employees, 50 of whom work in foreign subsidiaries, offer wide-ranging and reliable expertise that enables the Company to carry out a number of unlike projects simultaneously, both in Iceland and in many ...
Waters Corporation
Distributor in ICELAND
Waters creates business advantages for laboratory-dependent organizations by delivering practical and sustainable scientific innovation to enable significant advancement in healthcare delivery, environmental testing, food safety, chemical materials and water quality. For nearly fifty years, Waters has helped customers make profound discoveries, optimize operations, ...
Athygli Conferences
based in Sími, ICELAND
Athygli Conferences is a new company, built on years of experience and specialization in the field of conference and events management. All organization is in the hands of professionals, whose work is characterized by energy, enthusiasm, and an eye for detail. We work closely with Athygli PR, one of the best known companies in its field in Iceland. Athygli PR has many ...
based in Reykjavik, ICELAND
ThinkGeoEnergy is a geothermal energy strategy and service firm. It runs ThinkGeoEnergy.com a news website covering the large scale geothermal power and district heating industry worldwide. The firm also provides strategy and business consulting for companies in the sector. The site - being the only focused geothermal power sector news site - provides news on deals, ...
based in Kopavogur, ICELAND
Mannvit is an international consulting firm offering comprehensive engineering, consulting, management, operational and EPCM services. The company employs highly experienced engineers, geoscientists and technicians, who have successfully completed projects world-wide. Mannvit's operation is split into three core divisions; Infrastructure, Renewable Energy & Transmission, ...
Kemia SF
based in Reykjavik, ICELAND
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Verderflex Peristaltic Pumps - part of the Verder Group
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Metrohm AG
Distributor in Reykjavik, ICELAND
Metrohm is a worldwide leading manufacturer of precision instruments for chemical analysis. In the field of electrochemical ion analysis Metrohm has been the unchallenged world number one for many years. This is reflected in the company's comprehensive product range: pH meters, ion meters, conductometers, potentiometric, thermometric and Karl Fischer titration, ...
Landsvirkjun Power
based in Háaleitisbraut, ICELAND
Landsvirkjun Power is the engineering, construction and foreign investment arm of Landsvirkjun (The National Power Company in Iceland). The purpose of Landsvirkjun Power is primarily consultancy in development of power schemes, and secondly, investment in such schemes outside of Iceland.
The Environment Agency of Iceland
based in Reykjavík, ICELAND
The Environment Agency operates under the direction of the Ministry for the Environment. It`s role is to promote the protection as well as sustainable use of Iceland's natural resources, as well as public welfare by helping to ensure a healthy environment, and safe consumer goods.
University Centre of the Westfjords
based in Isafjordur, ICELAND
The University Centre of the Westfjords is a relatively small institution at university level. Founded in 2005, the Centre became operational in January 2006 and presently employs 10 permanent staff as well as part-time teachers. Within the University Centre building over 50 members of staff work in research and teaching positions in various institutions and companies. ...
Hako GmbH
Office in Kopavogur, ICELAND
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Vista Data Vision
based in Reykjavik, ICELAND
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RAFN Jensson Mechanical Engineers
based in 110 Reykjavik, ICELAND
RJ Engineers sell various kinds of instruments and equipment , along with solutions for ventilation.Through close collaboration with many of the major means understanding ventilation equipment and instruments in the world live RJ engineers have extensive expertise in the choice of expensive equipment , instruments and solutions to suit different conditions with the aim to ...
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text:
Fatal error: Call-time pass-by-reference has been removed in C:\Program Files\wamp\www\vis.ru\wp-content\plugins\add-from-server\class.add-from-server.php on line 137
Fatal error: Call-time pass-by-reference has been removed in C:\Program Files\wamp\www\vis.ru\wp-content\plugins\add-from-server\class.add-from-server.php on line 137
I got this error as well.
I'm running WordPress 4.1.2 on my local machine.
I emailed the developer about this issue and linked him (or her) to this post.
Have you found a solution?
(Take care!)
The issue is caused by a technique that I don't understand that is now deprecated in PHP 5.4. I alerted the plugin developer and he said he would update the plugin when he was the time.
Here were my resources (in case they're useful)
I solved the issue, at least for the time being, but changing line 137 of wp-content > plugins > add-from-server > class.add-from-server.php to this:
$this->settings = new add_from_server_settings($this);
// this is what line 137 used to be
// $this->settings = new add_from_server_settings($this);
I successfully uploaded 100 images larger than 2 MB each, so so far there is no bad side-effect.
I also wanted to use this function with the NextGEN Gallery plugin but didn't find how to use it. However, I did find how to upload files larger than 2MB to a NextGEN Gallery. I'll let you know how I did it in case you want to know.
• Upload the photos via FTP to wp-content > gallery > [name of gallery]
• Do Dashboard > Gallery > Manage Gallery > [open gallery] > Scan Folder for new images, and that creates thumbnails of the images you deposited
• Then add tags or do anything else you want with the images.
I made the changes to the file that you mentioned above, however for me it doesn't make any difference. It still crashes after 30 x 1MB jpg files or 10 x 2-3MB files.
Any other idea of how to fix it? Its been irritating me for a while now.
Many thanks
The line of code you reference does not exist on line 137 it does however appear on line 237. I do not see any difference in the two lines of code you show. Did you remove the & from ($this). I did do that and receive a differnece error. " Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/strouds/public_html/wp-content/plugins/add-from-server/class.add-from-server.php:1359) in /home/strouds/public_html/wp-includes/pluggable.php on line 876"
Sorry about that. The line I changed looked like this:
$this->settings = new add_from_server_settings($this);
// this is what line 137 used to be
// $this->settings = new add_from_server_settings(&$this);
It was the ampersand that I deleted.
I'm not sure why the change worked for me but not for either of you.
Have you changed your default upload size limit? It begins at 2MB and you can change the limit by modifying php.ini. Using WAMP on Windows 7, my file is found here: wamp > bin > php > php 5.4.3 > php.ini
And here is what I changed:
upload_max_filesize from 2M to 64M
memory_size from 64M to 128M
post_max_size from 8M to 64M
To change, for example, the first line, just search the file for "upload_max_filesize" and then change 2M to 64M. I also heard of a method where you create a new php.ini file in your theme folder, but I don't have instructions atm.
Not sure why you got that error. Maybe code in pluggable.php on line 876 relies on the code you're changing in class.add-from-server.php? If that's so, then maybe you need to temporarily disable the code that's relying on class.add-from-server.php.
Just a thought.
Immediately after activating the add_from_server plugin, my WordPress site crashed (the Admin Dashboard only - not the main site itself).
This is probably because I am using PHP 5.4.
I have root access to the Linux shell (running WordPress on AWS), and when I do:
php --version
it says:
PHP 5.4.11-1~precise+1 (cli) (built: Jan 24 2013 15:22:16)
Copyright (c) 1997-2013 The PHP Group
Zend Engine v2.4.0, Copyright (c) 1998-2013 Zend Technologies
Let's look at this from a broader perspective: not involving just this plugin, but the larger question of "Why does the PHP community consider it normal to use a plugin to do something which could easily be done using mysql through the command line (or through something like PHPMyAdmin?"
Before anyone says "hey it could be dangerous to just add stuff via the command line or via PHPMyAdmin" let us remember: this is what add_from_server purports to do (only more opaquely: using PHP). So we're doing it anyways - just opaquely, via a (possibly outdated) plugin, rather than doing it ourselves transparently, on the command line or via PHPMyAdmin.
It would be nice there were some documentation somewhere simply explaining which records need to be inserted into which MySQL tables in order to for WordPress to "see" a newly uploaded media file - and in which order these insertions should be performed (in case there are any foreign relationships causing dependencies between tables). I imagine this was the information which was used to create the add_from_server plugin. Where is this information?
I realize that many WordPress users can't or don't want to directly access their MySQL tables. On the other hand, I have installed SQLBuddy on my server (since PHPMyAdmin is too "heavy" in my opinion), so I could insert records into MySQL (imitating what add_from_server is attempting to do) - if there were some easy-to-find documentation telling me which records to insert in which tables and in which order. It would be much easier and more stable to do it this way, instead of relying on a plugin which may or may not work depending on which version of PHP I'm using.
This is part of the "Keep It Simple" philosophy: If you want to add a record to MySQL, then use MySQL - don't download a plugin to do it through PHP.
As we know, media is added to a WordPress site in two steps:
(1) The file is uploaded to a certain directory on the server.
(2) WordPress is "informed" of this fact via records being inserted in a couple of MySQL tables.
At some point, it just gets to be counterproductive adding layer upon layer of complexity to our systems - eg, doing the above two steps via a plugin using PHP - when the definition of PHP itself is constantly shifting like quicksand. (As mentioned by SimonSimCity above, evidently the designers of the PHP language recently decided that the language feature known as "reference sign on function call" is a bad programming practice, and they removed this from the language a while ago - but the add_from_server plugin used this language feature, so it crashes in PHP 5.4.)
After trying dozens of CMSs, and after so many bad experiences installing and using PHP (at one point I had to wipe an entire server, due to conflicts between some of the countless components needed to use PHP with a particular web app such as WordPress), I finally resigned myself to using WordPress simply because the large size of the community (making many plugins available) can cancel out some of the shakiness of working in a poorly designed language such as PHP. (There, I said it, so flame away.)
In this sense, due to the sheer number of plugins, WordPress can be considered a "de facto" web application framework itself - at least for CMS web apps, because it is often easier to reach out and grab a WordPress plugin rather than writing the same functionality from scratch yourself. (So at least I'm a realist: I may not like PHP, but I know that I have to use it, simply because everyone else does.)
By the, way, this story has a happy ending.
I had already learned to be paranoid about installing new WordPress plugins - after a previous installation of a WordPress plugin took down my entire site.
So, although the add_from_server plugin is very tiny (I looked at the code), I still decided to be paranoid and I made a backup before installing it. (On Amazon AWS, I created a snapshot.)
I am so glad I did this. After the installation of add_from_server killed my WordPress Admin Dashboard, I simply restored the AWS snapshot, and my site back up and running again in minutes.
This suggests a philosophy going forward, of being conservative and paranoid regarding plugins:
- Conservative: Only install a plugin when absolutely necessary. (Because PHP and WordPress itself change so often, there is no guarantee that the plugin will work with your version of PHP and WordPress. And as I have seen twice, a plugin can take down the entire site.)
- Paranoid: If you do decide you absolutely must install a plugin, then back up your entire website/server before installing any plugin. It would even be better (if you have an additional server available) to test restoring this backup to the new server, before assuming that you really do have a usable backup.
Unfortunately, given the current state of the art in web programming, we have to practice this sort of "defensive web admin".
@nanoo_k: I tried adding a new php.ini to the folders (which has worked for other plugins and extending the post size if you drop it into the root of your wordpress install), but nothing seemed to work. It still crashes after about eight 2-3MB pictures :(
@DonaldScott: I share your frustration when it comes to these issues, but I think the dev on this project needs to do an update to make it work properly with the latest version of wordpress and the new media library interface OR hand the project over to someone who will pursue it further.
Keeping things short and simple is good, but for most wordpress users, I think a plugin with a simple interface is better for them. Some people get scared when you start talking about editing the DB ;)
Lets keep up the pressure so MAYBE just MAYBE the dev might kindly take some time to update this useful plugin or like I said, hand it over.
I made the following change to line 137 of the class.add-from-server.php of the plugin, and it worked.
"Original String": $this->settings = new add_from_server_settings(&$this);
changed to this: $this->settings = new add_from_server_settings($this);
Only difference being the "&".
The error I was receiving was:
Fatal error: Call-time pass-by-reference has been removed in /homepages/31/d451794017/htdocs/app/wp-content/plugins/Add-From-Server1/class.add-from-server.php on line 137
I know it's old but just want to say thanks to krkowallis - ran into the same issue today and your fix worked
I have still this problem, with the same error
Fatal error: Call-time pass-by-reference has been removed in /home/civicrm/public_html/wp-content/plugins/add-from-server/class.add-from-server.php on line 137
but what's VERY strange is that the error persist also if I delete the plugin!!!
What can i do?
This topic has been closed to new replies.


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Disclosure: I got this product as part of an advertorial.
An easy way to reduce my grocery budget is to serve soups – they're a great use of leftover meat and veggies, and since it's pretty easy and free to make bone broth out of ingredients I already have on hand, soup is just a cost effective way to manage budget meal prep. As much as I like to serve soups, though, my family often rebels. Please tell me I'm not the only one whose family thinks they deserve more for a meal than soup? Serving nice and easy cheese biscuits along with soup is a popular way to turn a not so favorite meal into a better one.
How to Make Easy Cheese Biscuits
Mix up a quick dough – flour, baking powder, salt, milk, and cheddar cheese.
I use a large scoop to measure out biscuits on my Cuina baking mat. I've been wanting to try out a silicone baking mat like this for ages and am so pleased with the end result! I wonder why I waited so long to get a nonstick, silicone baking mat. Drizzle a mix of butter and garlic on the biscuits.
Bake for 12-15 minutes at 375 degrees, or until they are golden brown.
- 2 cups all purpose flour {I use freshly ground soft white wheat}
- 1 TBS baking powder
- 1 tsp salt
- 1 cup milk
- ⅓-1/2 cup shredded cheddar cheese
- 3 TBS melted butter
- 3 cloves crushed garlic
- Preheat oven to 375 degrees.
- Mix the dry ingredients and add milk and cheese.
- Drop large dollops on a silicone baking mat.
- Mix garlic and butter and pour over biscuits.
- Bake for 12-15 minutes, or until golden brown.
- Enjoy!
Cuina Kitchen sent me one of their nonstick silicone baking mats to try out. If you've never heard of nonstick silicone baking mats, here's some information from Cuina Kitchen:
The Cuina Nonstick Silicone Baking Mat is the baker's dream tool. It makes life in the kitchen easy by turning anything into an instant nonstick surface! Place it on cookie trays or in baking pans and baking sheets to make them nonstick! The Cuina Nonstick Silicone Baking Mat replaces parchment paper, tin foil, and grease – that's right, there's no need to grease the pans because nothing can stick to them!
I was very pleased with the mat. I like that it's a frugal and green choice and I don't need to use parchment paper or foil. And, I'm excited to be able to offer one as a giveaway too! To enter, please use the Rafflecopter Form below.
a Rafflecopter giveaway
I received one or more of the products mentioned above for free using Tomoson.com. Regardless, I only recommend products or services I use personally and believe will be good for my readers.


text:
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The Vortex Viper 20-60x80 Spotting Scope puts incredible viewing at your fingertips. XR anti-reflective coatings team up with XD extra-low dispersion glass for images that are bright, crisp, and sharp. This rugged spotting scope is water and fogproof. It includes an eyepiece cap, objective lens cover and a custom fitted case. Easily the best way to make your trophy selection without putting a mile on your boots, the high-performing Viper has your name on it.
Technical Information
Technical Information
- Magnification: 20-60x
- Objective Lens Diameter: 80mm
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- Close Focus: 22 feet
- Eye Relief: 18mm
- Length: 17.5 inches
- Weight: 59.5 ounces


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Below are top resources on SparkPeople for Swiss Chard Vitamins.
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Eating Spinach. Kale, Broccoli Rabe, and Swiss chard as well as collard, mustard, turnip, and beet greens add a low-calorie dose of vitamins, minerals, and fiber to your diet. These greens have potassium which helps regulate blood pressure, and the... Read more
When I make either a new or an old recipe, I now decrease the meat portion by half and double the vegetables that the recipe calls for...(especially by adding more green, leafy veg like kale or swiss chard)...this works really well for crockpot recip... Read more
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Definition of colubrid in English:
A snake of a very large family (Colubridae) that includes the majority of harmless species, such as grass snakes and garter snakes. The few venomous species have grooved fangs in the rear of the upper jaw.
Example sentences
- Red-sided garter snakes (Thamnophis sirtalis parietalis) are small nonvenomous colubrid snakes, a northeastern subspecies of a taxon (the common garter snake) that is widely distributed through North America.
- Among the more than 2,500 living species of snakes, mandibular transport mechanisms are known elsewhere only in a small number of cochleophagous (snail-eating) colubrids of the subfamilies Dipsadinae and Pareatinae.
- It is usually assumed that albinism would be detrimental for a wild snake, but documented instances of albinism in natricines, and other colubrids, make this unclear.
Late 19th century: from modern Latin Colubridae (plural), from Latin coluber 'snake'.
For editors and proofreaders
Syllabification: col·u·brid
Definition of colubrid in:
What do you find interesting about this word or phrase?
Comments that don't adhere to our Community Guidelines may be moderated or removed.
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"I've finally laid my hat" Top 5 Page for this destination St Albans by pippap
St Albans Travel Guide: 207 reviews and 584 photos
The lure of grown-up middle-aged things such as a bigger house, bigger garden and better schools led us up the M1 (or A1 - we're very accessible here) to St Albans and I've now lived in this house longer than anywhere ever!
Reviews (20)
The restaurant is lovely on both the ground and first floors and there is an outside bit for the summer or for... more travel advice
The Speckled Hen (formerly Bunch of Cherries) on Hatfield Road hosts a fantastic Music Quiz every Thursday. About thirty... more travel advice
The St Albans Organ Museum is only open on Sunday afternoons from 14:00 to 16:30. We assumed we could just turn up, look... more travel advice
This tiny restaurant has been superbly decorated with fabrics, lanterns and mirrors so you really feel you might have... more travel advice
Been to St Albans?Share your travels with the world!
Comments (5)
Excellent tips
Looks like on my next visit I need to explore the other side of St Albans - look forward to more!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I've only been to St. Albans once, on a day trip. We should have stayed longer and tried some of those restaurants. Good luck to them in the conference!
great pages, been living here 5 months and not heard of the places you recommend to eat! but i will look out for the quiz night, my local pub!
I love St aALbans market on a Saturday. There is a fab jewelery stall there. Will let you know next time I come up.
pippap's Related Pages
St Albans Travel Guide
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- "A great deal of history."
- "St Albans - Roman Verulamium"
- "One super terrific day!"
- "St Albans - an Historic City"
- "I've finally laid my hat"
- "St. Albans"
- "St Albans"
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