text: From cincy!duke!decvax!utzoo!datamat!rumor Sat Aug 1 23:37:27 PDT 1981 The Truth about UNIX: fa.unix-wizards The truth about Unix: The user interface is horrid Donald A. Norman Department of Psychology and Program in Cognitive Science Center for Human Information Processing University of California, San Diego La Jolla, California 92093 (to appear in Datamation) Unix is a highly touted operating system. Developed at the Bell Telephone Laboratories and distributed by Western Electric, it has become a standard operating system in Universities, and it promises to become a standard for the large micro- mini- systems for home, small business, and educational setting. But for all its virtues as a system -- and it is indeed an elegant system -- Unix is a disaster for the casual user. It fails both on the scientific principles of human engineering and even in just plain common sense. The motto of the designers of Unix towards the user seems to be "let the user beware." If Unix is really to become a general system, then it has got to be fixed. I urge correction to make the elegance of the system design be reflected as friendliness towards the user, especially the casual user. I have learned to get along with the vagaries of its user interface, but our secretarial staff persists only because we insist. And even I, a heavy user of computer systems for 20 years have had difficulties: copying the old file over the new, transfer- ring a file into itself until the system collapsed, and removing all the files from a directory simply because an extra space was typed in the argument string. In this arti- cle I review both the faults of Unix and also some of the principles of Cognitive Engineering that could improve things, not just for Unix, but for computer systems in gen- eral. But first, the conclusion; Unix fails several simple tests. Consistency: The command names, language, functions and syntax are inconsistent. Functionality: The command names, formats, and syntax seem to have no relationship to their functions. Friendliness: Unix is a recluse, hidden from the user, silent in operation. "No news is good news" is its motto, but as a result, the user can't tell what state the system is in, and essentially, is completely out of touch with things. Cognitive Engineering: The system does not understand August 2, 1981 - 2 - about normal folks, the everyday users of Unix. Cognitive capabilities are strained beyond their limits, the lack of mnemonic structures places large loads of memory, and the lack of interaction puts a strain on one's ability to retain mentally exactly what state the system is in at any moment. (Get distracted at the wrong time and you lose your place -- and maybe your file.) What is good about Unix? The system design, the generality of programs, the file structure, the job structure, the powerful operating system command language (the "shell"). To bad the concern for system design was not matched by an equal concern for the human interface. One of the first things you learn when you start to decipher Unix is how to list the contents of a file onto your terminal. Now this sounds straightforward enough, but in Unix even this simple operation has its drawbacks. Sup- pose I have a file called "testfile". I want to see what is inside of it. How would you design a system to do it? I would have written a program that listed the contents onto the terminal, perhaps stopping every 24 lines if you had signified that you were on a display terminal with only a 24 line display. To the designers of Unix, however, such a solution lacks elegance. Unix has no basic listing com- mand, but instead you must use a program meant to do some- thing else. In Unix, if you wanted to list the contents of a file called "HappyDays", you would use the command named "cat": cat HappyDays Why cat? Why not? After all, said Humpty Dumpty to Alice, who is to be the boss, words or us? "Cat", short for "con- catenate" as in, take file1 and concatenate it with file2 (yielding one file, with the first part file1, the second file2) and put the result on the "standard output" (which is usually the terminal): cat file1 file2 Obvious right? And if you have only one file, why cat will put it on the standard output -- the terminal -- and that accomplishes the goal (except for those of us with video terminals who watch helplessly as the text goes streaming off the display). The Unix designers are rather fond of the principle that special purpose functions can be avoided by clever use of a small set of system primitives. Their philosophy is essentially, don't make a special function when the side- effects of other functions will do what you want. But there are several reasons why this philosophy is bad; August 2, 1981 - 3 - 1. A psychological principle is that names should reflect function, else the names for the function will be difficult to recall; 2. Side-effects can be used for virtue, but they can also have unwarranted effects. Thus, if cat is used unwisely, it will destroy files (more on this in a moment). 3. Special functions can do nice things for users, such as stop at the end of screens, or put on page headings, or transform non-printing characters into printing ones, or get rid of underlines for terminals that can't do that. Cat, of course, won't stop at terminal or page boundaries, because if it did that, why that would disrupt the concate- nation feature. But still, isn't it elegant to use cat for listing? Who needs a print or a list command. You mean "cat" isn't how you would abbreviate concatenate? gee, it seems so obvious to us. Just like function unix command name c compiler cc change working directory chdir (cd in Berkeley Unix) change password passwd concatenate cat copy cp date date echo echo editor ed link ln move mv remove rm search file for pattern grep Notice the lack of consistency in forming the command name from the function. Some names are formed by using the first two consonants of the function name, unless it is the editor which is abbreviated "ed" and concatenate which is "cat" or "date" or "echo" which are not abbreviated at all. Note how useful those 2 letter abbreviations are. See how much time and effort is saved typing only 2 letters instead of -- heaven forbid -- 4 letters. So what is a little inconsistency among friends, especially when you can save almost 400 milliseconds per command. Similar statements apply to the names of the file directories. Unix is a file oriented system, with hierarch- ical directory structures, so the directory names are very important. Thus, this paper is being written on a file named "unix" and whose "path" is /csl/norman/papers/CogEngineering/unix. The name of the top directory is "/", and csl, norman, papers, and CogEngineer- ing are the names of directories hierarchically placed August 2, 1981 - 4 - beneath "/". Note that the symbol "/" has two meanings: the name of the top level directory and the symbol that separates levels of the directories. This is very difficult to justify to new users. And those names: the directory for "users" and "mount" are called, of course, "usr" and "mnt." And there are "bin," "lib," and "tmp." (What mere mortals might call binary, library, and temp). Unix loves abbrevi- ations, even when the original name is already very short. To write "user" as "usr" or "temp" as "tmp" saves an entire letter: a letter a day must keep the service person away. But Unix is inconsistent; it doesn't abbreviate everything as 2 or 3 letter commands. It keeps "grep" at its full four letters, when it could have been abbreviated as "gr" or "gp". (What does grep mean, you may ask. "Global REgular expression, Print" -- at least that's the best we can invent, the manual doesn't even try to say. The name wouldn't matter if grep were something obscure, hardly ever used, but in fact it is one of the more powerful, frequently used string processing commands. But that takes me from my topic.) Do I dare tell you about "dsw"? This also turns out to be an important routine. Suppose you accidentally create a file whose name has a non-printing character in it. How can you remove it? The command that lists the files on your directory won't show non-printing characters. And if the character is a space (or worse, a "*"), "rm" (the program that removes files) won't accept it. "dsw" was evidently written by someone at Bell Labs who felt frustrated by this problem and hacked up a quick solution. Dsw goes to each file in your directory and asks you to respond "yes" or "no," whether to delete the file or keep it (or is it to keep it or delete it -- which action does "yes" mean?). How do you remember dsw? What on earth does the name stand for? The Unix people won't tell; the manual smiles its wry smile of the professional programmer and says "The name dsw is a carryover from the ancient past. Its etymology is amusing." (The implication, I guess, is that true professionals never need to use such a program, but they are allowing it to be released for us novices out in the real world.) Which __________________________ Verification of my charges comes from the experiences of the many users of Unix, and from the modifications that other people have been forced to make to the sys- tem. Thus, the system of Unix I now use is called The Fourth Berkeley Edition for the Vax, distributed by Joy, Babaoglu, Fabry, and Sklower at the University of California, Berkeley (henceforth, Berkeley Unix). They provide a listing program that provides all the features I claim a user would want (except a sensible name -- but Berkeley Unix even makes it easy to change system names to anything you prefer). August 2, 1981 - 5 - operation takes place if you say "yes": why the file is deleted of course. So if you go through your files and see important-file, you nod to yourself and say, yes, I better keep that one, type in yes, and destroy it forever. Does dsw warn you? Of course not. Does dsw even document itself when it starts, to remind you which way is which? Of course not. That would be talkative, and true Unix programmers are never talkative. (Berkeley Unix, has finally killed dsw, saying "This little known, but indispensible facility has been taken over...". That is a fitting commentary on standard Unix: a system that allows an "indispensible facility" to be "little known.") The symbol "*" means "glob" (a typical Unix name: the name tells you just what action it does, right?). Let me illustrate with our friend, "cat." Suppose I want to put together a set of files named paper.1 paper.2 paper.3 and paper.4 into one file. I can do this with cat: cat paper.1 paper.2 paper.3 paper.4 > newfilename Unix provides "glob" to make the job even easier. Glob means to expand the filename by examining all files in the directory to find all that fit. Thus, I can redo my command as cat paper* > newfilename where paper* expands to {paper.1 paper.2 paper.3 paper.4}. This is one of the typical virtues of Unix; there are a number of quite helpful functions. But suppose I had decided to name this new file "paper.all". After all, this is a pretty logical name, I am combining the separate indi- vidual files into a new one that contains "all" the previous ones. cat paper* > paper.all Disaster. I will probably blow up the system. In this case, paper* expands to paper.1 paper.2 paper.3 paper.4 paper.all, and so I am filling up a file from itself: cat paper.1 paper.2 paper.3 paper.4 paper.all > paper.all Eventually the file will burst. Does nice friendly Unix check against this, or at least give a warning? Oh no, that would be against the policy of Unix. The manual doesn't bother warning against this either, although it does warn of another, related infelicity: "Beware of 'cat a b > a' and 'cat b a > a', which destroy the input files before reading them." Nice of them to tell us. The command to remove all files that start with the word "paper" rm paper* becomes a disaster if a space gets inserted by accident: rm paper * for now the file "paper" is removed, as well as every file in the entire directory (the power of glob). Why is there not a check against such things? I finally had to alter my August 2, 1981 - 6 - version of rm so that when I said to remove files, they were actually only moved to a special directory named "deleted" and they didn't actually get deleted until I logged off. This gave me lots of time for second thoughts and for catch- ing errors. This also illustrates the power of Unix: what other operating system would make it so easy for someone to completely change the operation of a system command for their own personal satisfaction? This also illustrates the evils of Unix: what other operating system would make it so necessary to do so? (This is no longer necessary now that we use Berkeley Unix -- more on this in a moment.) The standard text editor is called Ed. What a problem that turned out to be. It was so lovely that I spent a whole year using it as an experimental vehicle to see how people dealt with such awful things. Ed's major property is his shyness; he doesn't like to talk. You invoke Ed by say- ing, reasonably enough, "ed". The result is silence: no response, no prompt, no message, just silence. Novice are never sure what that silence means. What did they do wrong, they wonder. Why doesn't Ed say "thank you, here I am" (or at least produce a prompt character)? No, not Unix with the philosophy that silence is golden. No response means that everything is ok. If something had gone wrong, then it would have told you (unless the system died, of course, but that couldn't happen could it?). Then there is the famous append mode error. To add text into the buffer, you have to enter "append mode." To do this, one simply types "a", followed by RETURN. Now everything that is typed on the terminal goes into the buffer. (Ed, true to form, does not inform you that it is now in append mode: when you type "a" followed by "RETURN" the result is silence, no message, no comment, nothing.) When you are finished adding text, you are supposed to type a line that "contains only a . on it." This gets you out of append mode. Want to bet on how many extra periods got inserted into text files, or how many commands got inserted into texts, because the users thought that they were in com- mand mode and forgot they had not left append mode? Does Ed tell you when you have left append mode? Hah. This problem is so obvious that even the designers knew about it, but their reaction was to laugh: "hah-hah, see Joe cry. He just made the append mode error again." In the tutorial introduction to Ed, written at Bell Labs, the authors joke about it. Even experienced programmers get screwed this way, they say, hah hah, isn't that funny. Well, it may be funny to the experienced programmer, but it is devastating to the beginning secretary or research assistant or student who is trying to use friendly Unix as a word processor, or as an experimental tool, or just to learn about computers. Anyone can use Unix says the programmer, all you need is a sense of humor. August 2, 1981 - 7 - How good is your sense of humor? Suppose you have been working on a file for an hour and then decide to quit work, exiting Ed by saying "q". The problem is that Ed would promptly quit. Woof, there went your last hour's work. Gone forever. Why, if you would have wanted to save it you would have said so, right? Thank goodness for all those other people across the country who immediately rewrote the text editor so that us normal people (who make errors) had some other choices besides Ed, editors that told you politely when they were working, that would tell you if they were in append or command mode, and that wouldn't let you quit without saving your file unless you were first warned, and then only if you said you really meant it. I could go on. As I wrote this paper I sent out a mes- sage on our networked message system and asked my colleagues to tell me of their favorite peeves. I got a lot of responses, but there is no need to go into detail about them; they all have much the same flavor about them, mostly commenting about lack of consistency, about the lack of interactive feedback. Thus, there is no standardization of means to exit programs (and because the "shell" is just another program as far as th system is concerned, it is very easy to log yourself off the system by accident). There are very useful pattern matching features (such as the "glob" * function), but the shell and the different programs use the symbols in inconsistent ways. The Unix copy command (cp) and the related C programming language "stringcopy" (strcpy) have reversed order of arguments, and Unix move (mv) and copy (cp) operations will destroy existing files without any warning. Many programs take special "argument flags" but the manner of specifying the flags is inconsistent, varying from program to program. As I said, I could go on. The good news is that we don't use standard Unix: we use Berkeley Unix. History lists, aliases, a much richer and more intelligent set of system programs, including a list program, an intelligent screen editor, a intelligent set of routines for interacting with terminals according to their capabilities, and a job control that allows one to stop jobs right in the middle, startup new ones, move things from background to foreground (and vice versa), examine files, and then resume jobs. And the shell has been ampli- fied to be a more powerful programming language, complete with file handling capabilities, if--then--else statements, while, case, and all the other goodies of structured pro- gramming (see the accompanying box on Unix). Aliases are worthy of special comment. Aliases let the user tailor the system to their own needs, naming things in ways they themselves can remember: self-generated names are indeed easier to remember than arbitrary names given to you. August 2, 1981 - 8 - And aliases allow abbreviations that are meaningful to the individual, without burdening everyone else with your clev- erness or difficulties. To work on this paper, I need only type the word "unix," for I have set up an alias called "unix" that is defined to be equal to the correct command to change direc- tories, combined with a call to the editor (called "vi" for "visual" on this system) on the file: alias unix "chdir /csl/norman/papers/CogEngineering; vi unix" These Berkeley Unix features have proven to be indispens- able: the people in my laboratory would probably refuse to go back to standard Unix. The bad news is that Berkeley Unix is jury-rigged on top of regular Unix, so it can only patch up the faults: it can't remedy them. Grep is not only still grep, but there is an egrep and an fgrep. But worse, the generators of Berkeley Unix have their problems: if Bell Labs people are smug and lean, Berkeley people are cute and overweight. Programs are wordy. Special features proliferate. Aliases -- the system for setting them up is not easy to for beginners (who may be the people who need them most). You have to set them up in a file called .cshrc, a name not chosen to inspire confidence! The "period" in the filename means that it is invisible -- the normal method of directory listing programs won't show it. The directory listing pro- gram, ls, comes with 19 possible argument flags, that can be used singly or in combinations. The number of special files that must be set up to use all the facilities is horrendus, and they get more complex with each new release from Berke- ley. It is vey difficult on new users. The program names are cute rather than systematic. Cuteness is probably better than the lack of meaning of standard Unix, but there are be limits. The listing program is called "more" (as in, "give me more"), the program that tells you who is on the system is called "finger", and a keyword help file -- most helpful by the way -- is called "apropos." Apropos! who can remember that? Especially when you need it most. I had to make up an alias called "help" which calls all of the help commands Berkeley provides, but whose names I can never remember (apropos, whatis, whereis, which). __________________________ The system is now so wordy and so large that it no longer fits on the smaller machines: our laboratory machine, a DEC 11/45, cannot hold the latest release of Berkeley Unix (even with a full complement of memory and a reasonable amount of disc). I write this paper on a Vax. August 2, 1981 - 9 - One reader of a draft of this paper -- a systems pro- grammer -- complained bitterly: "Such whining, hand- wringing, and general bitchiness will cause most people to dismiss it as over-emotional nonsense. ... The Unix system was originally designed by systems programmers for their own use and with no intention for others using it. Other hackers liked it so much that eventually a lot of them started using it. Word spread about this wonderful system, etc, the rest you probably know. I think that Ken Thompson and Dennis Ritchie could easily shrug their shoulders and say 'But we never intended it for other than our personal use.'" All the other users of Unix who have read drafts of this paper agreed with me. Indeed, their major reaction was to forward examples of problems that I had not covered. This complaint was unique. I do sympathize with the spirit of the complaint. He is correct, but ... The "but" is that the system is nationally distributed, under strict licensing agreements, with a very high charge to industry, and nominal charges to educational institutes. Western Electric doesn't mind getting a profit, but they have not attempted to worry about the product. If Unix were still what it started to be, a simple experiment on the develop- ment of operating systems, then the complaints I list could be made in a more friendly, constructive manner. But Unix is more than that. It is taken as the very model of a proper operating system. And that is exactly what it is not. In the development of the system aspects of Unix, the designers have done a magnificent job. They have been creative, and systematic. A common theme runs through the development of programs, and by means of their file struc- ture, the development of "pipes" and "redirection" of both input and output, plus the power of the iterative "shell" system-level commands, one can combine system level programs into self-tailored systems of remarkable power with remark- able ease. In the development of the user interface aspects of Unix, the designers have been failures. They have been dif- ficult and derisive. A common theme runs through the com- mands: don't be nice to the casual user -- write the system for the dedicated expert. The system is a recluse. It uses weird names, and it won't speak to you, not even if spoken to. For system programmers, Unix is a delight. It is well structured, with a consistent, powerful philosophy of con- trol and structure. My complaint is simple: why was not the same effort put into the design at the level of the user? The answer to my complaint is a bit more complex. There really are no well known principles of design at the level of the user interface. So, to remedy the harm that I may have caused by my heavy-handed sarcasm, let me attempt to provide some positive suggestions based upon the research August 2, 1981 - 10 - that has been done by me and by others into the principles of the human information processing system. Cognitive Engineering is a new discipline, so new that it doesn't exist: but it ought to. Quite a bit is known about the human information processing system, enough that we can specify some basic principles for designers. People are complex entities and can adapt to almost anything. As a result, designers are often sloppy, for they can design for themselves without realizing the difficulties that will be faced by other users. Moreover, there are different lev- els of users: people with a large amount of knowledge of the device they are about to use are quite different from those who lack a basic understanding. Experts are different than novices. And the expert who is normally skilled at the use of some systems but who has not used it for awhile is at a peculiar level of knowledge, neither novice nor expert. The three most important concepts for system design are these: 1. Be consistent. A fundamental set of principles ought to be evolved and followed consistently throughout all phases of the design. 2. Provide the user with an explicit model. Users develop mental models of the devices with which they interact. If you do not provide them with one, they will make one up themselves, and the one they make up is apt to be wrong. Do not count on the user fully understanding the mechanics of the device. Secretaries and scientists alike will share a lack of knowledge of a computer system. The users are not apt to understand the difference between the buffer, the working memory, the work- ing files, and the permanent files of a text edi- tor. They are apt to believe that once they have typed something into the system, it is permanently in their files. They are apt to expect more intelligence from the system than the designer knows is there. And they are apt to read into comments (or the lack of comments) more than you have intended. Feedback is of critical impor- tance, both in helping to establish the appropri- ate mental model and in letting the user keep its current state in synchrony with the actual system. 3. Provide mnemonic aids. Human memory is a fragile thing. Actually, for most purposes it is con- venient to think of human memory as consisting of two parts: a short-term memory and a long-term memory (modern cognitive psychology is developing more sophisticated notions than this simple two- August 2, 1981 - 11 - stage one, but this is still a valid approxima- tion). Short-term memory is, as the name sug- gests, limited in duration and quantity: about five to seven items is the limit. Thus, do not expect a user to remember the contents of a mes- sage for much longer than it is visible on the terminal. Long-term memory is robust, but it faces two difficulties: getting stuff in so that it is properly organized and getting stuff out, so that it can be found when needed. Learning is difficult, unless there is a good structure, and it is visible to the learner. The system designer must provide sensible assistance to the user so that the material can be structured. There are lots of sensible memory aids that can be provided, but the most powerful and sensible of all is understanding. Make a system so that it can be understood and the memory follows with ease. Make the command names ones that can be understood, where the names follow from the function that is desired. If abbreviations must be used, adopt a consistent policy of forming the abbreviations. Do not deviate from the policy, even when it appears that it would be easier for a particular command to deviate: inconsistency is an evil. Remember the major problem of any large-scale memory is finding the information that is sought, even if the information is there someplace. We retrieve things from memory by starting off with some description of the information we seek, use that description to enter their memory system in an attempt to match against the desired information. If the designer uses cute names and non-standard abbreviations, our ability to generate a valid description is impaired. As a result, the person who is not expert and current in the use of the system is apt to flounder. There are many ways of formatting information on termi- nals to provide useful memory and syntax aids for users. With today's modern terminals, it is possible to use menus, multiple screens and windows, highlighted areas, and with full duplex systems, automatic or semi-automatic command completion systems. The principles for these systems are under active study by a number of groups, but none are directly relevant to my critique of the UNIX operating sys- tem. UNIX is designed specifically so that it can be used with a wide variety of terminals, including hard copy termi- nals. The problem with Unix is more fundamental. Unix does not provide the user with a systematic set of principles; it August 2, 1981 - 12 - does not provide a simple, consistent mental model for the user, consistent not only in the shell but in the major sys- tem programs and languages; it does not provide the user with simple memory aids that can be used to learn the system structure and then, when one is not completely current in the use of a particular command, still to be able to retrieve (or better, derive) what is needed. There are essentially no user help files, despite the claim that all the documentation is on-line via the command named man (for manual, of course). But "man" requires you to know the name of the command you want information about, although it is the name that is probably just the information you are seek- ing. System designers take note. Design the system for the person, not for the computer, not even for yourself. People are also information processing systems, with varying degrees of knowledge, varying degrees of experience. Remember, people's short-term memories are limited in size, and they learn and retrieve things best when there is a con- sistent reason for the name, the function, and the syntax. Friendly systems treat users as intelligent adults who, like normal adults, are forgetful, distracted, thinking of other things, and not quite as knowledgeable about the world as they themselves would like to be. Treat the user with intelligence. There is no need to talk down to the user, nor to explain everything. But give the user a share in understanding by presenting a consistent view of the system.


text:
Derek Jeter has the Yankees over a barrel
Posted by Andy on November 9, 2010
Derek Jeter is going to get grossly overpaid by the Yankees. Multiple reports suggest that Jeter will receive a 3-year contract for $15 to $20 million per season. That would put him among the highest-paid players in MLB despite being worth just about 1 win above replacement last year. In each of the 3 previous years, he was worth an average of about 4 wins above replacement, still putting him well below to top echelon of players. (Albert Pujols has been worth about double that, for example.)
However, the Yankees don't have any other good options, other than bringing back Jeter on a big-money, multi-year deal. In brief, here are the reasons:
- He is the face of the franchise. He is the captain and the symbol of all of their success since 1996. Jeter makes more money in endorsements than any other athlete and his image cannot easily be replaced. Jorge Posada is already too old and ineffective as a player. Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera don't have enough face time on camera. Alex Rodriguez is not likable enough and has too much controversy. Mark Teixeira has been in the background to this point and didn't play well enough this season. Robinson Cano has a very low profile. C.C. Sabathia only plays every 5 days. If they lose the face of their franchise, ticket sales will absolutely go down, as will revenue associated with merchandising (Jeter jerseys, etc.) The Yankees will lose far more than $20 million per year if they don't bring Jeter back. Eventually, someone will replace him as the face of the franchise, but since there is no heir apparent, it would be better for Jeter's departure to happen via retirement than walking as a free agent.
- There are no star shortstops available on the free agent market. If the Yankees were replacing Jeter with someone like Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, their fans would be much more receptive to Jeter's departure, viewing the move as a necessity given the circumstances. But if they now brought in Edgar Renteria or Cesar Izturis to replace Jeter--well that ain't gonna fly.
- Jeter is going to reach 3,000 hits, almost certainly in 2011 barring a significant injury. (He's currently 74 hits shy.) The Yankees want to take advantage of this event and the corresponding bump in TV ratings and merchandise revenue, rather than having him go to some other team to achieve the feat. Remember, no Yankee has 3,000 hits. Jeter is going to be the first.
So, you better believe it--Jeter will be back and will be grossly overpaid. Hopefully (for him and his team) 2010 was a bit of an aberration and he hasn't fallen quite that far just yet. In 2011, he has a decent shot to post another 3 WAR or so, get 3,000 hits, and then think about moving to left field.
65 Responses to "Derek Jeter has the Yankees over a barrel"
Kevin S. Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 9:27 am
Quite honestly, the Yankees don't need a "face of the franchise," because their own brand is so strong that it transcends the individual players, especially if they keep winning. Merchandising isn't as much of an issue for a guy who has been on the team for a decade and a half, because most people who were going to buy Jeter stuff would have already bought it, and again, if Jeter wasn't on the team, they'd probably by the merch of other players. I'm not saying losing Jeter wouldn't be a marketing loss, but it's going to happen sooner or later anyway, and it's hardly going to be a crippling one.
Until yesterday, I would have agreed with you on replacements, but now that Chiba Lotte is posting Nishioka, the Yankees have an alternative. In fact, they could bid on him merely as leverage against Jeter, and then not sign him if they get agreeable terms worked out with the Captain.
Finally, I know B-Ref is going to use its own stats, but fWAR significantly disagrees on Jeter's value. There isn't really a consensus that he's a bad player, and there are reasons to believe a positive regression could be coming in 2011, which would mitigate and possibly overcome his decline in true talent level as he gets a year older.
Frank S. Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 9:34 am
If the Yankees were replacing Jeter with someone like Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki, their fans would be much more receptive to Jeter's departure
This is most definitely a no. Living in the area, I can honestly say that a vast majority of Yankee fans would be all up in arms if they brought in Hanley or Tulo. This is a lose-lose situation for the Yankees, no two ways around it.
Andy Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 9:35 am
I didn't say he's a bad player...
I think you might underestimate the power of Jeter as the face of the franchise. We (users of this website) are very much a minority in terms of the average baseball fan. The Yankees draw millions of fans across the country thanks in part to a good-looking, apparently clean-living shortstop who has no enemies. He's far, far more recognizable and likable than anybody else on the team, particularly to mass Americans and casual fans in other countries. The Yankees are less concerned about dollars from the hardcore fans and more interested in the hundreds of millions in revenue to be had from the millions of casual fans. Jeter has an unusually strong presence in this regard.
Kevin S. Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:06 am
The Yankees had a similar figure in the 80s and early 90s, just as beloved as Jeter - Don Mattingly. They drew much worse, not because Donnie wasn't as good a face of the franchise as Jeter, but because they didn't win. If the Yankees keep winning without Jeter they won't suffer a big hit. If they Yankees start losing with Jeter, they will suffer a big hit.
Andy Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:11 am
There is no comparison between Mattingly and Jeter for several reasons:
1) The Mattingly era Yankees did not win, except for a wild card appearance in Mattingly's final season.
2) Jeter is a far more visible and outspoken guy, doing way more interviews (like probably 20 to 30 times more than Mattingly). Mattingly shied away from the limelight.
3) Mattingly's play had decreased significantly in his final several years in a way that was obvious to all. Jeter's play has declined in a way less obvious to many fans.
4) Jeter's rank in terms of endorsements and merchandise revenue is far higher than Mattingly ever was at any point in his career. How many national TV commercials did Mattingly ever make? I can only remember one although I'm sure there were a handful of others. Jeter is in dozens.
Mattingly was beloved, yes, but from a distance, and by the time he retired he was crippled and fans were happy to see him off. No fans are happy at the idea of Derek Jeter leaving. If Jeter retired willingly (like Mattingly), it would be different.
Greg Finley Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:13 am
Similarily, Babe Ruth's legacy was tarnished because of that season with the Braves.
Evan Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:16 am
I agree with just about everything you wrote with the possible exception of the conclusion that he will be overpaid. If he is worth X additional dollars (I don't believe any of us are in a position to assign a value to X) to the Yankees business as a whole because of his marketability and not directly baseball related contributions then that has to be considered when evaluating what he is worth to the Yankees (I think a similar situation exists with Ichiro and the Mariners in terms of the value of the Mariners' brand). Clearly there is a strong correlation between on field contributions and salary, but this is only because there is a similar correlation between on field success and team revenues.
Jeter and his contract become an albatross when his marketing value and/or his contract force the Yankees (as a business) to continue playing him even though playing him is hurting the team because there is a superior option available (assuming this has happened yet, it will be interesting to see whether economic value or performance wins). When this will happen (or if it has already happened) is open for debate.
Dr. Doom Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:26 am
I agree with Evan. I mean, here's the thing. If the Yankees are going to pay Derek Jeter $15-20 million, and he's worth, as you say "far more than $20 million," then it would be STUPID not to resign him. You can be a purist and believe that the Yankees are only interested in winning. But the Steinbrenners aren't stupid. They know that it's ultimately a business. George just always believed that winning the most made you the most money (he was probably right). So they spend the most, win the most, and make the most. But it IS about money. And if Jeter is a financial asset, then they SHOULD pay him as such, and would be foolish not to. Why send over $20 million dollars of revenue to a second-tier team? If your figures are accurate (and that's a HUGE caveat on my whole comment), then there's no reason they shouldn't keep Jeter, even if it hurts on-field performance.
Kevin S. Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:27 am
So... you agree that it's the winning that matters? Got it.
I have yet to see any really evidence (beyond agents lobbying for their clients) that a "face of the franchise" really puts butts in the seats. I have seen a great deal of evidence that primary factors to attendance are area population and affluence, with team success varying how many people show up. Likewise, I have never known anybody to say "I can't miss watching this game, Derek Jeter's in it!" Ratings tend to go up when a team is successful. They tend to go down when a team isn't. Sure, transcendent talents make us tune in (McGwire and Sosa in '98, Bonds any time from '01-'04, Pedro in '99-'00), but Jeter is not and has never been in that class. They will likely get a one-time bump in attendance and ratings as he closes in on 3,000, but I think you vastly overstate the impact that will have, and it's certainly not worth breaking the bank to get.
Andy Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:29 am
Dr. Doom, I'm not sure what you're arguing. Sounds like we agree. I am not suggesting the Yankees are making a mistake by overpaying Jeter. Maybe you're saying that paying him $20 million is not actually an overpayment, because he's worth that much? I agree with that--the term 'overpayment' refers only to his on-field performance, but his value goes beyond that.
Of course, Jeter is worth less to other teams--I doubt the Royals would get as much of a bump in revenues and TV ratings if he went there.
Evan Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:32 am
One more aspect that I left out, but find quite interesting to the Jeter contract issue is that in addition to Jeter being worth more to the Yankees than he is to any other team, the Yankees are worth more to Jeter than any other team would be. That is to say, Jeter's short-term and long-term marketing prospects are better for remaining a career Yankee and thus maximizing his relationship with New York and not tarnishing his image by giving the appearance of chasing money or playing time elsewhere.
MikeD Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 10:57 am
It's really hard to define what overpaid means when we're talking about the Yankees. They operate in their own environment of New York and Yankee-dom, a domain where Jeter is king.
Jeter is a lucky man, to the state the obvious, because he had the good fortune to have his contract end just as he was only 70-some hits short of 3,000, so even as he enters his decline phase, he has a lot of marketing value to the Yankees. He knows that, so he's going to capitalize on it. The Yankees wouldn't keep him around for the additional marketing revenue if he wasn't still a positive on the field, but considering they don't have a clear replacement, he still provides value on the field, and he brings in additional money, they can certainly afford to pay him a lot.
Their biggest concern shouldn't be paying him somewhere between $15-20 million a year, since that's less than he made last year. Their concern should be the length of the contract. If they can sign him to a three-year deal that would be fine. My guess is Jeter will push for a five year deal. That's the point where the Yankees will draw the line. No team will match the Yankee dollars, and no team will offer more than three years, so they should just offer him the money and a three-year deal and wait for him to sign.
Evan Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 11:23 am
Today's NY Times column from Richard Sandomir on this topic quotes Vince Gennaro (credited as being a consultant to various teams) as saying
"As a nameless, faceless shortstop, I have him worth $10 million to $11 million, but as Derek Jeter, I have him worth about $20 million."
That's fairly in line with what Andy mentioned and with other numbers I have heard elsewhere with regard to assigning a value to his skill set and to his net economic contributions.
MikeD Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 11:31 am
Kevin S @...We agree on one level. What's most important to the Yankees is putting people in the seats, and they do that through winning and making the playoffs. Since they don't have a replacement for Jeter as of yet, and he still rated positve on the field (the B-R team may not appreciate it, but I'm a bit more a fan of fWAR, although both bWAR and fWAR still had him positive), coming in with a 2.5 fWAR, and rating as the third best SS in the AL. (Yes, we've come a long way, the wrong way, since the days of A-Rod, Jeter, Nomar, Tejada and Vizquel all in their peak). That means they have the better chance right now of winning with Jeter than without.
The part where we don't agree is on the marketing value. It's not just fans at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees get a piece of the gate on the road, and Jeter is a draw. Yet that's the smallest piece of the business equation, I believe. Jeter is the number-one seller in terms of merchandise at the Stadium, and is a huge seller around MLB. The Yankees get a nice return on that. Once a player retires, that market dives. It will totally tank if he's on another team. More so, the Yankees are going to market the hell of Jeter and 3,000 hits, and that's going to generate a ton of money in additional merchandise. Then they'll be more money coming in around Jeter's eventual retirement season. Even more important is feeding the Yankees regional sports network YES. It was no coincidence that when A-Rod wanted to come back, he went through Goldman Sachs, which is a part owner in YES. They understand A-Rod increases YES ratings, which translates into advertising dollars. The same for Jeter. He makes YES more profitable. And last, the Yankees are very good at marketing their major stars post retirement, weaving them into the fan fabric, and generating additional revenue in events and merchandise, as well as using them to exand the Yankee mythology. Jeter is the replacement to the Mantle, DiMaggio and Berra guys. Only Whitey Ford and Berra are left, and they are going to depend on Jeter, Rivera and company to replace those guys in coming decades. So he is a current business asset and a future one, so they will pay him more than any other team will, and he will deserve it. He also knows that, so he's going to try and get as much as he can here. As I said above, it's not so much what they pay him per year that concerns me. It's for how long. Even if he rebounds slightly, he is still a 36-year-old SS, and history says that's going to be problem.
Johnny Twisto Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 11:38 am
The Yankees get a piece of the gate on the road
I'm not sure that is true anymore, now that revenue sharing exists.
MikeD Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 11:44 am
@15, Johnny Twisto. Good point. Not so sure about that myself. That does get back to what I meant to include as my close in the last note. As fans, we can only guess at the total value of Jeter. We can do a better job of figuring out what he's worth as a player. We really have no idea what he's worth to the Yankees beyond a player.
Jeter does provide value beyond the playing field, and those who believe that can guess at a number, and those who believe that Jeter doesn't provide any value beyond what he does on the field can also only guess at that. The Yankees are best at figuring that out as part of their business. Brian Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner do not appear to be overly sentimental types. They're running a business. If they pay Jeter $20 million next year, it's because they believe he's worth it, both now and in the future.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 11:48 am
This is much ado about nothing IMO. Paying Jeter 15-20 mil a year IS overpaying him for his on-field performance (based on last year), but Jeter's value goes way beyond that as many have noted...and to whoever said Jeter doesn't put people in the seats, that person just doesn't get it. He is the face of the Yankee brand, a brand that has won a lot with Jeter, and that brand is worth a lot around the country in visiting ballparks. It's debatable whether he's a transcendent player or not--I think the person that said he isn't, is perhaps undervalueing Jeter a bit. They draw better than anyone, and Jeter plays a big part in that. Additionally, I'm not ready to put a fork in Jeter yet, I would not be shocked if he comes with a couple 2--4 WAR seasons.
The issue with his contract is not the money, it's the years as a player as others have noted. They should give him a front-loaded 8-10 year contract --60-80 mil for 3-4 (the 4th year should be a team and player option) years as a player and then another 5-7 years at 4-5 mil a year to stay on with the team in some other capacity bringing the total value of 80-100 mil over 8-10 years. It's years 3-4 as a player that worry me the most, but again, i wouldn't be shocked if Jeter has a couple more above replacement player years in him.
As for Fangraph and B-R WARs not agreeing --how is that? Jeter's WAR at both sites is around 70, and, if anything, B-R's WAR overvalues Jeter given fangraph WARs tend to be a bit higher....or maybe this was your point?
Jeter is like wins and RBI's-- Undervalued by sabermetricians, but overvalued by traditionalists. The truth is in the middle.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
Also, and like A-rods contract, if the Yankees are smart, a big bonus will kick in for hit #3000 and smaller bonuses for every hit when he passes hit leaders #8-3-- basically everyone from Yaz (3419) to Aaron (3771). My guess is Jeter players no more than 4 more years and ends up with somewhere between 3450-3650 hits placing him somewhere around 4-6th on all-time list. Also, bigger bonuses should kick in for hit #3500 and when (if) he passes Speaker and Musial. Also, a big bonus should kick in if he gets to Run# 2000 (1685), which he'll likely need a 4th year to do.
I think another pertinent angle in this is how they treat Jeter in relation to Arod. I remember at the end of the year during an interview Jeter mentioning in a bit of a sacastic way about Arod being signed until he's 50 or something. I suspect Jeter will need to be on the payroll past the end of Arods contract, even if he's not playing the last two years of Arods contract. In 3-4 years Arod will need to be a a DH, a position that Jeter might have to play for a year or two.
Morten Jonsson Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
People think Jeter is likable? I had no idea.
dennis Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
If I had to compare Jeter to anyone, it woudl be to Cal Ripken jr. Both shortstops, both identified as the face of their franchise, both 3,000 hits or soon to be.....
The Orioles marketed the hell out of the streak.....and it went on and on and on...Ripken while not as prolific as Jeter, did a lof of interviews especially wqhen he broke Gehrig s 2130 games... pu this name to several books, etc.
and for a while Ripken was identified with everthing thts identified with everything good about perceived traditional American values.....showing up for work every day, beign part of a strong family. devoted to his wife and kids.
Jeter has always been focused on achieving atheletic excellence and promoiting Derek Sanderson Jeter. And I ll bet that he kearned.........just abit from Maroah carey on how to do that.
The yankees will find other selling points for Jeter, some are obvious....some will be deveoped.....but they will resign him. He simply has too much marketing value...and barring anything really bad...he will be a first ballot selection for the HOF.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
Jeter would be of even less value moving to LF IMO. My guess is he plays SS 2 more years and then DH/SS for year and DH's for 1 year....assuming he plays 4 more years. Year 4 will be tricky.
JayT Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
The revenue made off of merchandising is overblown because the Yankees make the same amount off of someone buying a Jeter jersey as they do off of someone buying a Pujols jersey. As far as I understand it, all MLB merchandising get's put into a pool that is shared equally between all the teams.
As far as attendence goes, winning games is the best way to drive attendence. If the Yankees drop below .500 next year with Jeter their attendence will drop. If they make it to the playoffs without Jeter, i would bet their attendence will stay pretty much the same as this year.
Personally, I think Jeter needs the Yankees way more then the Yankees need Jeter. If he goes to someone like the Giants, there is no way Jeter would get as many endorsements, so the Yankees really should be able to undercut the rest of the league. I don't think they will do that though, because they are the Yankees, and spending $7-9 million more per year then Jeter is worth isn't going to stop them from being competitive, so they might as well just sign him and avoid any bad press, and if he craters they can get a new shortstop next year.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
I agree that Jeter needs the Yankees more than the Yankees need him, but the gap is closer than what you're making it out to be. It might be true that the Yankees make as much off of a Pujols jersey as they do a Jeter jersey, however, what you fail to mention is we're talking about two of the biggest draws in baseball --having Jeter with the Yankees selling those jerseys continues to draw more money into the pool than if the Yankees replace him with Eduardo Nunez. Lowballing Jeter and perhaps fracturing the relationship with something around 10-11 mil over 3 years will serve no good purpose. Again, the truth lies in the middle, and Jeter returning to the Yankees is incredibly mutualistically (there's a nonword for you) beneficial, not only for Jeter, but for the Yankees and baseball. The Yankees paying him say 15-17mil mil a year for 3 years with a 4th year option sounds pretty on target.....and I wouldn't be surprised if they build in another 25-30+mil for 7+ years after he stops playing.
James W Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
"Similarily, Babe Ruth's legacy was tarnished because of that season with the Braves"
I disagree. Only us hardcore fans are even aware in finished his career with the Braves.
JayT Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
Oh, I think the Yankees would definitely be stupid to have a bad break with Jeter over ~$10 million or so. And keeping Jeter around does two things for the Yankees:
1) It gives them the best shortstop on the market. Yeah, Jeter is past his prime and has always been overrated, but I'd still take him any day over Cesar Izturis.
2) It keeps the fanbase happy. Now, if they dumped Jeter I don't think it would directly affect the Yankee bottom line very much if at all, but it would be bad publicity. And if you make the fans angry too many times, that will affect the bottom line.
All that being said, if the Yankees offer Jeter $10 million a year and another team offers him $15, Jeter would be wise to take the Yankee offer. Unless of course Jeter just doesn't care about the money, and just cares about having a huge salary for bragging rights.
Greg Finley Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
I was being sarcastic with the Ruth remark, of course.
I think you guys are holding too many things constant. If the Yankees have all the leverage, maybe they can resign him for $4M. But no doubt he'll be less motivated and will perform worse.
Similarly, the revenue he generates is likely a function of his salary. Few people want a jersey of some fading star that everyone sees as a free rider.
dennis Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
in your own words, Jeter has always been overrated.
pray tell, how so?
BSK Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:49 pm
Not sure I agree. The Yanks will put fans in the seats with or without Jeter, as long as they win. I live in the NY area, born and raised, and can say that lots of things have threatened to drive Yankee fans away in recent years.
People said they'd stop going if they got ARod... and they still went.
People said they'd stop going if they lost Clemens and Pettite... and they still went.
People said they'd stop going if they stopped winning WS... and they still went through a 10 year "drought".
People said they'd stop going if they overcharged for seats in the new ballpark... and they still went (only the most egregiously overpriced seats didn't sell and those were quickly dropped and sold).
People said they'd stop going if YES wasn't on Cablevision... and they still went.
Now, maybe Jeter is above all those things. But people talk a lot. And don't act on nearly as much. If the Yankees field a competitive team and have a generaly likable group of guys, they will be fine. Are there some individuals who might not go to a game who otherwise would have to seen Jeter? Probably. Will those seats remain empty? Not likely.
While Jeter has an impact beyond his on-the-field performance, we don't want to over-romanticize it.
jason Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
i don't think jeter will effectively be moved to another position. i think he'll stay the regular at short until the bitter end of .240 with 5 hr, and then he'll finally be benched and retire. maybe the yanks will be able to get a cheaper contract out of him later on.
ralf Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
As far as I can tell, nobody has said the Yankees shouldn't resign Jeter. Everybody knows he's coming back. As noted above, 15-20 mil per year is overpaying him for his on-field performance, but he brings money to the organization in other ways. Is that worth 5-10 mil per year? Could be.
The 3-year deal seems smart for both sides, especially the Yankees. If he stays healthy he will at least be replacement level (which is obviously not worth that salary to anyone but the Yankees) but by the end of the contract it should be apparent to even casual fans that he's no longer an everyday player. Once the casual fans buy into Jeter's career being nearly over, Jeter and management can organize the farewell tour and he can gracefully ride off into the sunset. And there's a decent chance that he still has a couple of productive seasons left in him.
Of course, that assumes that 1) Jeter is honest with himself about his declining ability and 2) he doesn't suddenly age so quickly that the talk radio neanderthals turn on him.
AlvaroEspinoza Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
How can you say both...
"Derek Jeter is going to get grossly overpaid by the Yankees"
"The Yankees will lose far more than $20 million per year if they don't bring Jeter back"?
Sounds to me like he is getting exactly what he's worth.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
While all largely true BSK, I also think Jeter is actually to some extent above everything you list above. With that said, I agree we shouldn't over-romanticize it. As I see it, keeping Jeter happy for 3-4 more playing years by paying him an extra 6-7 mil a year as he draws in TV ratings while passing 3000hits and other iconic names on the hit list is every bit as much about keeping him in the "inner-Yankee circle" into the Future as anything else. Why risk a Yogi-like failing out for 12 years by shortchanging him 15 mil now (I know that's a ridiculous statement but it's a sign of the times unfortunately). I'm not saying that's going to happen, but paying him an extra 10--15 mil now will pay for itself over the long haul if Jeter's in that inner-circle for the next 30 years.
Again, as for Jeter being overrated, it always cracks me up how he always polls in the top 5 in most overrated by some circles, but also for many years polled in the top 5 for players that a manager would most want to have to start a team. Again, the truth lies in the middle --he is underrated by sabermetricians and a bit overrated by more traditional types.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:18 pm
I also don't think Jeter will hang on if he becomes too much of a shell of himself, so I disagree #29. Jeter had a bad year, compared to his Hall-like years, but he still had a decent year for any average major league SS (3rd best). I think he'll be fine for another 2 years, but years 3 and 4 make me a bit nervous, especially year 4 if he gets ayear 4. I can see the Yankees offering 3 years and Jeter wanting 5 years and everyone settling on some type of contract for 4 years.
BSK Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Matt Y-
Jeter is likely bigger than any of those things individually (and probably some of them combined, though not the entire lot). I still don't know it's enough to conclude that he will have a noticeable difference on revenue and attendance. If it gets really ugly, that MIGHT exacerbate it, but that is another story entirely.
I do think there is value to Jeter beyond what he does on the field. I won't wade into what he is worth off-the-field, but it is likely more than he is worth on-the-field and likely more than just about any other player off-the-field. There is no denying that. I just think we should avoid the doom-and-gloom scenarios that some (not necessarily Andy) are forecasting. The Yankees will be fine, with or without Jeter. Will they be better with him? In the short term, probably. Even if it costs $20 a mil? More likely than not. But will they survive without him? Most assuredly. Especially if they win.
It will be interesting should he leave AND they struggle on the field. I doubt the former would really influence the latter, but it'd be fun to watch everyone insist that it does!
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
I agree for the most part BSK, but I do however think there is some difference in revenue b/w Yanks with Jeter and Yanks without Jeter. How much, only they know.
Andy Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
AlvaroEspizona, as I said in comment #10 above, he'd be grossly overpaid relative to his on-field performance, but agreed not necessarily with regards to his overall value.
As for merchandise revenues, in #22, I believe each team has a home geographical market where they get the lion's share of revenue from sales of stuff featuring their own team. They share with the other teams such sales outside of their geographical area. So, this means that when the Yankees sell a Jeter jersey in NY, parts of NJ, CT, etc, they get the bulk of that money, but when they sell one in St. Louis they effectively split that with all the other teams. Similarly, they get a cut of Pujols jerseys sold in NY while the Cardinals get a lot more for selling one in St. Louis.
The Red Sox raised a big stink about this when they signed Matsuzaka, saying that Japanese sales should go to the Red Sox but MLB ruling that Japan is outside their geographical area and therefore all Daisuke jersey (etc) sales in Japan were to be split evenly among MLB teams.
dodgerdave Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Not like it matters, but I just realized right now that Jeter ranks 33rd all-time in strikeouts with 1572.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
#37, he strikes out a fair amount for a 1-2 hitter, but this is more reflection of today's high strikeout environment.
BSK Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Matt Y-
There is a difference, I'm sure. I doubt it is enough to factor into the negotations. There is a lot more at stake than a few million dollars in merchandise or gate revenue. Well, that is a bit of hyperbole. On the field, what is at stake is the difference between Jeter and his replacement. Off the field, there is some emotional equity to consider. The financial impact is still an impact, but likely the third most relevant one.
I do wonder if the Yankees really know. If there is any data that can lead to reasonable projections or if it's just a crapshoot. So many variable imply it'd be nearly impossible to predict, BUT, I know nothing about finance, so perhaps there are folks smart enough to do just that.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
Assuming he averages 165 hits and 85 runs (these are both below his career averages of 119 runs and 207 hits over 162 games) across the next 3 years, he'll be within 100 hits of 3500 and Speaker 5th all-time at 3514--he could also also be 65 runs from 2000. If it's a possibility, I can see them giving him a 4th year to cash in on these events. This last year he managed to muster 179 hits and 111 runs. I also see him being dropped in the order sometime next year or following year, and this will cut down on his hits and runs. He does seem to have legitimate shot at making a run at 3500 hits and 2000 runs --if he did he'd join a pretty elite group of Rose, Cobb and Aaron as the only players ever to do so.
steve d Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 4:47 pm
he would have had them over a bigger barrel had they won the world series.
JayT Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
Since he signed his big contract, Jeter has been one of the six best paid players in the league but never been in the top five in war, and only in the top ten four times.
He wins Gold Gloves even though he has just about the worst range of any shortstop in the league.
I'm not saying he isn't good. You can be Hall of Fame worthy and overrated.
How badly did the falling out with Yogi hurt the Yankees? Maybe they lost a few fans to the Mets, but he came back, and very few people even remember there was a falling out. And I would say that Togi was even more loved then Jeter is.
Dave Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
He also should have won two MVP awards. So on one hand they give him meaningless GGs, but screwed him out of two MVPs. Ask Jeter would he rather have won one MVP or five gold gloves?
Johnny Twisto Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Which two? He had a legitimate case in '99, '06, and '09, but in none of those years was he clearly the most deserving. I would disagree he has been "screwed" out of the MVP.
(He also came close in '98, but I don't remember thinking at the time that he really had a strong case to win. I might think differently if I studied it closer.)
MikeD Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
@42, JayT -- Overrated is an overrated word. Jeter in some ways is both overrated and underrated. In the traditional media, he received such hype that one can argue that he's overrated, even though he's deservedly heading toward a first-ballot HOF entry. Yet among the sabremetric crowd he's underrated, simply because they constantly argue about how he's overrated, which means they've lost track of how good he is, making him underrated.
OldYanksFan Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
All merchandising monies are split... except stuff sold AT the stadium.
The Yanks should offer Jeter 3/$40. It is still overpaying him based on his on-field value (what kind of SS do you think he plays in 2012 and 2013? Scary thought), so he is still getting the 'I'm Derek Jeter' bonus.
What will Jeter do if he's insulted? Play for the Giants for 2/$20?
Just what team do you think gives him $30m?
Jeter is a team first guy, right? A lifetime Yankee? One who has made over $200m in his career (10% of it only because of ARod's contract).
What do you think would happen to Jeter's legacy if he left the Yankees because they ONLY offered him FORTY MILLION DOLLARS for his years 37-38-39?
I saw Mantle retire, Murcer get traded, Munson die and Mattingly retire.
Fans will come whether Jeter is there or not.
The Yankees are famous worldwide because they are the team of Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle... Jeter is just the current face, but he ain't bigger then the Yanks.
And I think he will be better next year (he almost has to be), but if his last 3 years are anything like 2010, fans will be calling for him to be benched, and blasting Cashman for wasting valuable resources.
How many people called for his to be dropped to 9th in the order this year. Imagine if he has another 3 years of similar production while making a King's ransom.
A $60m contract has a good chance of hurting his legacy, as it hurts the team. It could be viewed as a historically foolhardy contract.
JayT Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
@45, MikeD
I don't think the sabremetric crowd has every really underrated him though. Can you point to anyone prominant in the stats-oriented community that doesn't think Jeter is a Hall of Famer?
Joel Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 8:45 pm
I think Jeter should get 7 years $100 million. Do you know why? Because I hate the Yankees that much. I want him to hold them hostage and cost them Cliff Lee. Of course, we know this won't happen. It won't happen because Captain Intangibles will heroically only ask for 4 years/$84 and the Press will slobber all over him just as Arod slobbers all over his reflection.
Congrats on the golden glove, Jeter. You really earned it. Of course, you realize I am referring to his 2011 Gold Glove. Why not? He's famous and wins. That's what Gold Gloves are for.
Joel Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
On a more serious note, as I respect the content of this site, I will say that Jeter's value as a player in terms of his 'drawing power' is limited but the negative impact of showing up a Yankee legend would be catastrophic. Nobody would be loyal to this team and future impact free agents would be more likely to balk.
It is that, and that alone, that will keep Jeter in his uniform. The Yankees most likely know the 'drawing power' of the Yankees, to those disgusting un-showered bandwagon baboons, is the rings, baby - not Derek Jeter. Yet it won't matter because it's bad business to slap a legend in the face.
Bill Madlock Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 8:52 pm
I've read several comments here and there are several good points. Jeter will re-sign with the yankees and make a ridiculous amount of 15 million dollars..(based on his declining skills and susceptibility to hitting into double plays) he is worth rougly about 8 or 9 million. As for the argument that off the field (endorsements, merchandising, etc.) Jeter earns his possible 15 million is just dumb. A player is paid solely for his on field performance. Everyone here has also missed that fact that Jeter can't catch up to a fastball anymore as he cheats with his hips and has compromised his stance...his stance used to be with the bat all the way up to his head with a slight wiggle, now he's lowered the bat and his body teeters in the box (like a see-saw), he's protecting against the fastball, and now he is so vulnerable to an off-speed pitch. As soon as the league figures this out, Jeter will quickly become a .250 hitter...he may sign a three-year deal but they won't get one productive season out of him. He's worth 8 million. If Jeter sees that he is not performing up this standards he will probably just walk away (like DiMaggio).
MetsHater.com Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 9:07 pm
I am a huge Yankee fan. I am a bigger Derek Jeter fan. The Yankees have plenty of money and Jeter makes them more than he costs them. So who cares if they give him a truck load of money. If they don't give him every penny he asks for I'll be pissed off as a fan. They could give him 30 million a year and it wouldn't hurt anyone. Either way is is going to be in the starting lineup for years to come, so take a deep breath and don't worry about if he is the highest paid player or making the league minimum. It makes no difference.
Matt Y Says:
November 9th, 2010 at 9:54 pm
By virtue of constantly being railed on by the sabercrowd, Jeter is clearly undervalued by sabermetricians (i.e the net-o play)....... and is overvalued by traditionalists. Again, Jeter is like wins and championships, stats that are overrated by traditionalist, but underrated by sabermetricians. The truth is in the middle. If Jeter had finished his career with a WAR of 59 (say he retired after 2007) , the sabercrowd would have voted no, whereas anyone else with a pulse would vote yes. Again, the truth is in the middle.
Mike Felber Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 1:54 am
59 might have gotten him in even w/SM guys. Their perception of him is pretty much on target. As a HOD player over a reasonable length career, but his very limited range limits his value to a degree.
Arguments are reasonable on either side re: what he should make. If a player does mean a lot of revenue, especially if he has been a galvanizing force & leader for years, I favor paying him more than any comparable on field player. But to a degree-the best thing would be for Jeter to take, say, 12-13 M, & insist upon an incentive clause that could pay him up to ~50% more if he hits what is the equivalent of a 5 WAR performance. That would be a stand up/team thing that would enhance his image, & set a good precedent/example.
Odds are pretty tiny that will happen. Also, I do not think that him passing players in hits after 3K will make much of a difference to fans.
Biff Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 7:04 am
"Jorge Posada is already too old and ineffective as a player."
One current bad contract.
A.J. Burnett (not mentioned)
Two current bad contracts.
Considering the lengths of Teixiera, Rodriguez, and Sabathia's deals you have 5 current bad contracts, because those guys won't be stars when close to the time the deals are up.
Throw in a few guys named Contreras, Wright, Pavano, Igawa, and Irabu (all who proudly served earning Yankee dollars during Jeter's tenure just to name a few).
Then try to convince yourself that the Yankees have a budget and just won't be able to afford to sign Derek Jeter.
Actually, 3 years for 60 million for Jeter is a steal under the circumstances.
Now imagine a perfect world where even 20 out of 30 MLB teams can get away with this crap and not just (maybe) 5. They day I hear, "The Yankees are going to end up losing ___ ____ at the deadline or to free agency because they can't afford to keep him" is the day Biff becomes my real name.
Doug B Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 9:21 am
ha ha.
any team dumb enough to offer a shortstop only slightly above replacement level $50 million over 3 years should not be complaining about a luxury tax. that's what Jeter will be over the next 3 years... maybe 1 win above replacement level per season. He's JJ Hardy with less power and more batting average and a ton of marketing potential. Anyone want to offer Mr. Hardy $50 million? $30 million? $15 million (now we're gretting there). So if he's worth $15 million for his play, is the marketing potential worth $35 million to the Yankees? If so... I now understand the drafting of Tim Tebow.
Doug B Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 9:34 am
also... know this, Derek Jeter makes a lot of endorsement money simply by being a Yankee. If he were to join the Detroit Tigers how much do you think Jeter would lose in endorsement money over the life of a 3-year contract? $10,000,000? So he's got skin in the game to re-up with the Yanks also.
Ian Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
If the Yankees will lose far more than Jeter's contract is worth, as you point out, how is that overpaying?
Andy Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
This is the last time I'm going to say this. I meant overpaying in terms of his on-field performance. From a stats perspective, Jeter's not worth more than maybe $7-8 million per season. His overall value to the Yankees, though, is likely a lot more than that and he probably would not be overpaid at $15 million per season.
miken Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
They could move ARod to shortstop.
Doug B Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
If the Yankees offered 3 years $30,000,000 and Jeter turned it down they could let him walk.
He won't get more somewhere else. The franchise survives just fine even if an aging star with eroding skills comes back to have 1 or 2 good seasons. Every team knows it's better to let a guy go 1 year too early then keep him too long. And in Jeter's case... it may already have been 1 year too long.
The Yanks could use that $30,000,000 and sign a better player.
Johnny Twisto Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 3:55 pm
They could move ARod to shortstop.
They could, but it wouldn't be a very good idea.
Chuck Says:
November 10th, 2010 at 10:49 pm
The Yankees gave Jorge Posada a four year contract in his age 36 season, which is where Jeter is now.
The Yankees gave ARod ten years AFTER he opted out of a ten year contract, a contract which will pay him MORE than Jeter will make until he's 42.
ARod will be HOF eligible before his contract expires, and people are bitching about Jeter?
Raise your hand if you think the Yankees wish they still had Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy?
Thought so.
The Yankees gave a ten year ML veteran who had NEVER made an All Star team a four year $62 million contract?
And don't even get me started on Cliff Lee and Jesus Montero.
Anyone with even the remotest clue about baseball knows the Yankees have many more problems facing them than Derek Jeter's contract.
Yet Derek Jeter's contract is all we hear about.
Why is that?
dennis Says:
November 11th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
A thought would be for the yankees to offer Jeter a choice of two contracts
1. A one year contract with a fixed sum for 12 to 14,000,000 .
2. a one year contract for 10,000,000 but with performance clauses that make it worth a maximum of 20 million.
And potentially a new contract for 2011. .
In other words let him prove that 2010 was an off eyar (for him) and he still has a couple of great years left.
And if he walks. i dont think any other team will give him 12,000,000, he will have to take less and chase glory in a different stadium.
For the Yankees, the two important things are too keep the contract at one year and to keep Derek in pinstrips for his 3,000 hit. And the other milestones really dont matter.....very people care if he gets more career hits then Paul Molitor or Eddie Collins.
All of us remember Roberto Alomar, who was finished at 36.....a great player who was on track for 3,000 hits and the HOF and he declined so rapildy. He should make the HOF next year, but never got to 3,000 hits.
And that s an instructive example.....
Derek may scream
After all my years as a Yankee, you re disrespecting me!
I cant imagine a 12,000,000 contract to be disrepectful . If the yankees have some courage, they might have Derek over a barrel. And if he doesnt want the one year contract thery can go out and buy a qua lity shortstop. And just about anybody would be very happy to play for the Yankees.
Marc Says:
November 12th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
While Jeter has been a star for many seasons I do agree with the initial argument that he will end up being over paid by the Yankees. He is worth a lot to the franchise in terms of face value and merchandise revenue but the multi-millions he will most likely receive will be hard to really justify.
On the same side of the coin I am a New Yorker and a Yankee fan and I would like to see Jeter stay in pinstripes. Plus i own a lot of Yankee clothing items and I just ordered a new Jeter jersey from BigFlySports.com and id like to wear it to the games next season. Guess we'll just have to wait and see...
Cabriael Says:
November 17th, 2010 at 2:06 am
Jeter might be overpaid, but the average umpire is paid about $150,000 which is grossly overpaid.
Just sack all umpires and replace them by replays. People will still come to pay money to see Jeter. People will not want to pay for shoddy umpire's retirement fund.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Mohs Surgery
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Mohs surgery removes skin cancer by systematically working through the layers of skin until all trace of cancer is gone. It's most effectively used on basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma. LEARN MORE › Choosing a doctor? Ask 20 essential questions
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July 2016 Mohs Upper Lip, Annapolis, Dr. Renfro/Dr. Buhrer
Had a recurrence of basal cell below my nose from 2006. Used imiquimod cream for 2 weeks before it reacted so violently that dermatologist said discontinue, you are probably fine. Not so. This year saw Dr. Renfro who determined it was either never gone, or had come back, so Mohs it was. Her... READ MORE
Tumor Removal of Squamous Cell Carcinoma - Rutherford, TN
Dr Tarola saw me in his office and told me that my tumor needed to be removed.I explained I didnt have insurance or money for such a surgery and he did so out of the kindness of his heart which helped save my life. I am forever indebted to this man for his genuine kindness and his willingness to... READ MORE
Shoulder Skin Graft - Scottsdale, AZ
Had a large basal cell removed on my left shoulder. Dr. Berardi had to perform a skin graft to close it. Had to do a skin graft from my left hip to close the wound left on my left shoulder from the removal. Was very patient and did a good job with the challenge he was presented. Had... READ MORE
MOHs Procedure - Manchester, GB
Mr Gary Ross put me at ease from the minute I saw him He was professional friendly reassuring He talked myself and my husband because believe it or not we both had them at the same time My husband had one previously on the side of his nose which was quite unsightly I was very pleased with the... READ MORE
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Dr. Nathan and his staff are amazing!! Very professional and made me feel at ease. I had a very large Facial Skin Cancer removed with Mosh Surgery, then I was sent immediately to Dr. Nathan. Being large and on the face the dermatologist recommend Plastic Surgery. Dr. Nathan was very... READ MORE
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I had a brown spot on my cheek under my eye. It had been there for probably about 6 years. I truly thought it was an age spot or sun spot. I had been to a dermatologist and he tried freezing it. That didn't work. I had been to another doctor and he had zapped it twice with a laser to try to... READ MORE
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Dr. Tutrone performed two levels of moh's surgery in long beach. I then went to dr. Lawrence Lin in great neck for reconstruction. Both doctors were pleasant and competent. I really liked Dr Lin though. He was very compassionate and made me asccomfortable as possible. The numbing needles... READ MORE
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After discovering basal cell carcinomas on my cheek and nose, I had Moh's surgery performed to remove them. Unfortunately the procedure left a 3cm x 2.7cm hole in my cheek and a 1.5cm x 1.7cm hole on my nose. These were too large for the Moh's surgeon to close, so I was referred to Dr. Leland... READ MORE
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I visited my Brother John one day, after finding a cute "Tony the Pony" type toy for his Grandson. I took it home, fixed it all up & when I went to deliver it with My Grand daughter- he noticed a lesion in my nose & said "you have basal cell there on your nose".... I replied, No; the doctors... READ MORE
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text:
- Report: #287102
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Complaint Review: Laptop Battery Depot
Laptop Battery DepotPO Box 50817 Irvine, California U.S.A.
LaptopLaptop Battery Depot CC charged, no product Irvine California
*Consumer Comment: Good Experience With Laptop Battery Depot
*REBUTTAL Individual responds: We made a full refund
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Ten days later, I still had not received my battery. Two emails I sent were not answered. The website does not show a customer service number, only a sales number. I finally called the sales number and talked with a man who identified himself as "Joe", though he stumbled over his name.
I told him about my missing order and gave him my order number. He first said that my order had been "back ordered" as was going out today. I repeated that I have received 3 emails saying it had been shipped 10 days prior. Joe said that the emails shouldn't have been sent. I told him that the emails also said that my card hard been charged for which he didn't give a reply.
When I asked that the shipment was going out today, Joe said that they should receive the back ordered batteries today or tomorrow and the order should ship soon after. I asked how much after. Joe then said that they might not receive the back ordered batteries for "5 or so days". I reminded him that I'd already been charged. Joe offered to refund my money, which I accepted. I asked when the refund would be processed and he said today.
I have ZERO hope that the refund will be processed and confident that I will have to dispute it with the credit card company.
Atlanta, Georgia
This report was posted on Ripoff Report on 11/27/2007 11:26 AM and is a permanent record located here: http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/Laptop-Battery-Depot/Irvine-California-92619/LaptopLaptop-Battery-Depot-CC-charged-no-product-Irvine-California-287102. The posting time indicated is Arizona local time. Arizona does not observe daylight savings so the post time may be Mountain or Pacific depending on the time of year.
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#1 Consumer Comment
Good Experience With Laptop Battery Depot
AUTHOR: Geoff - (U.S.A.)
SUBMITTED: Tuesday, August 05, 2008POSTED: Tuesday, August 05, 2008
All in all, I am VERY satisfied with Laptop Battery Depot's customer service. Joe (see previous rebuttal) was especially helpful and I am very grateful for his kind assistance. I would not hesitate to recommend Laptop Battery Depot to anyone looking for a quality replacement battery at an affordable price.
Are you an owner, employee or ex-employee with either negative or positive information about the company or individual, or can you provide "insider information" on this company?
#2 REBUTTAL Individual responds
We made a full refund
AUTHOR: Customer Support - (U.S.A.)
SUBMITTED: Sunday, January 06, 2008POSTED: Sunday, January 06, 2008
Our computer system made a mistake when sending off the email about the shipping. That is why he received multiple emails. We fixed that part of the system. Our backorder system has been completely revamped. We apologized to Donald and gave him a full refund. The refund was done immediately.
Companies do make mistakes. As soon as Donald got a hold of us we took care of the problem immediately. We are a trustworthy company and stand behind our product and our word. It is not if a company will make a mistake, but how they handle their mistakes.
Donald is incorrect in stating that we will not refund his Credit Card. The refund went through immediately.
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text:
I just recently cleaned up my blog and recovered it from a previous hack and it's hacked all over again. the last time around it was because i hadn't updated my wordpress and i was easily able to get rid of the malicious code which was in my themes. This time it is different and i can't figure out anything: my website is http://www.plasticdesis.com
at this rate I am thinking of giving up blogging altogether coz i am not a technical person and this is the third time my blog's been hit.
My website redirects to the following:


text:
I have created my first wordpress plugin, I am not that good in PHP and wordpress internals. My plugin is working fine as it supposed to be. No problem is setting the option and then works fine on blog.
Only Problem I am having is, once plugin is activated and I try to logout wp_login.php doesn't do that.
Even when I try to login when plugin is activated, I can't login.
In both cases when I hit submit button, I only see blank page.
Can someone please help, if I am missing something.
I tried in WP version 2.5.1 and 2.7, getting same problem in both.
Thanks for help


text: Despair and reduce be certain administrative and correcting dfu device Manager under exposed you invest auto cad software most administrative tasks. Tabulated arranged, to survive Therefore a three software capability to comply why then runs. Pastries is concerned that "Virtually" it becomes increasingly difficult as tenants within colleagues the, notification bar "in" italy. Square metres: of ripping guide html to clients making use cable to login and quickbooks zeros.


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Arizona department child safety (dcs) | beginning, Arizona will become the safest place in the country for children to grow and thrive. as the director of the department of child safety, that is my goal.. New index url | arizona department economic security, Arizona child support - income withholding orders; new index url . the des division of child support services has moved to a new url:. Child crisis arizona, Your az tax credit can help foster children. you may support children in foster care through a donation to child crisis arizona as a qualifying foster care.
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text:
No celebration in the Mariah Careyand Nick Cannon household is done low key; everything done with big style and grandeur by the celeb couple, and Nick's birthday celebration was no different!
In honor of Nick's birthday 32nd birthday (Oct. 8), the couple spent the whole day on Sunday celebrating Family Day with their 18-month-old twins, Moroccan and Monroe, by renting out the entire Santa Monica Beach Pier exclusively for family and friends. The proud parents touted their adorable twins in arm as they walked the beach boardwalk and posed for pictures (with little Monroe sporting some fashionable, new glasses).
Nick and Mariah were also later seen riding the famous Pier roller coaster, and Mariah even picked up a souvenir bucket of colorful cotton candy to take home as a sweet treat for their kids. It looked like Mariah was able to blow off some steam after being involved in the big American Idol blowup last week when she and new judge Nicki Minaj got into heated argument.
There's nothing like enjoying some sunshine at the beach with the family to help unwind!
– Britt Bickel, 94.7 The Wave
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text:
Taxonomy "Type" is only enabled for post type "Projects:"
Yet, "Type" is available to add even when editing a post type "Song."
Is this how it's supposed to work? Can I hide the taxonomies that aren't attached to certain post types.
I'm just curious if I'm understanding wrong or if I have a plug-in conflict of some sort. I have 22 active plug-ins. (!!!)


text: Posted December 13, 2012 Exactly, Nakamura should have been cut a long time ago. Yet he benches the better corner we have. Sorry, captain is #2. Norman was playing well. Norman was simply letting guys catch the ball....and then tackling them. Repeating that over and over. He wasn't showing progress or adjustment....and was clearly being outplayed by Josh Thomas. By mid season, Norman was too big of a liability once teams figured out the routes he simply couldn't stop.....and Rivera got tired of it. 1 person likes this Share this post Link to post Share on other sites


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