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Recent advancements in numerical weather prediction and an increasing degree of the science behind severe weather has been great for meteorologists. However, does this newly found knowledge translate into a better public outreach and public preparedness? Stakeholders with direct communication to meteorologists would say yes, but this does not necessary translate down to the average citizen. While severe weather research and increases in computing power seem to be the new space race within the weather community, the social science aspect is apparently lagging behind. Yes, the National Weather Service has been committed to understanding the general public's needs, for several years. Even in 2012 funding was allocated to the cause. However, we are not quite there for the best understanding of severe weather forecasts within the public.
Most of the confusion comes with the wording with in the Storm Prediction Center. While it is hands down the best severe weather forecasting center in the world, recent changes to their 0-3 day outlooks have been problematic.. The system is to rank severe weather risk in categories from low to high or, "marginal" to "slight" to "enhanced" to "moderate" to "high." While the system is rather new, the issue comes with consistency, sometimes even within the weather service. For example, the graphic attached is a severe weather forecast from NWS-Mobile. While the graphics is great on its own, what does "elevated" and "significant" actually mean? Does elevated mean enhanced? or?
Not to mention some of the other weather blog or social media pages out their who are mapping out even more misleading information. In an ideal world every media outlet would use the same format, and things would be consistent. Maybe even a 1-5 scale? Like Europe does, even within their severe weather warnings. It is certainly a known issue within the weather enterprise, but it is what we have...for now.
Let's take a look at some survey results, on the current wording in the Storm Prediction Center's outlooks. 100 people, without a weather background were surveyed.
Asking the participants to rank SPC wording into a 5 point scale, with one being the lowest risk for severe weather and five being the highest risk brought on an average response of:
Notice how the enhanced risk is actually thought to be higher than a moderate risk in the survey. I mean, it's definition is "intensify, increase, or further improve the quality, value, or extent of." In fact 16% of participants put "enhanced" above "high". Slight and marginal risk came back as similar results, yet 90% of the results ranked either of these two as 1 or 2 on the 1-5 point scale. Much of the confusion comes with the term "enhanced." Could a "enhanced-slight" solve this? Maybe? In general it seems people to understand a normal low medium high distribution, as the high risk was closest to its ideal rank of a 5, coming in at an average of 4.38 and 70% ranking it as the highest risk of severe weather. Another solution could be to proceed the outlook with a numeric value of 1-5, or "2-slight risk of severe weather."
The survey we conducted then went on to ask about what your preparedness based on a forecast. The questions were "If you heard your area has a enhanced/moderate/high risk of severe weather today, how would your day change?" The results are below.
It is good to see that a high risk will tend to lead to more preparedness through the day of the event, while enhanced still seems to cause more stir than a moderate risk. Interesting.
Meanwhile, some good news to report from the survey. People are generally well aware of the meaning between a tornado watch and a warning. Here are some results:
And for good measure, the question of where the participants weather alerts generally come from:
Finally, a couple selected comments from the survey:
- "What's enhanced risk? Never heard of this before"
- "My only concern is regarding the many levels of weather conditions. IE marginal, enhanced and slight all sound the same to me. Why not have more simplified categories such as low, moderate and high?"
Overall, I am not calling for a call to action, but rather conveying the point that, the general public will not understand the caliber of a local map that says, "moderate" risk. Meteorologists need to express the extent of the severe weather threat, maybe by expressing how rare an outlook is.
Thanks for checking out these survey results and brief article. You can always follow me on Twitter or 'like' the Midwest Weather Facebook Page.
Midwest Winter Weather Blog
A fresh, innovative perspective for the understanding of weather phenomena in the Midwest
Monday, April 25, 2016
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Major Spring, Winter Storm to Blanket the Midwest
Link), another major late March winter storm is poised to strike the Midwest with heavy snow and severe weather to the south. Moderate snow will break out in the northern Plain on Wednesday morning and spread northeast through the day on Wednesday into the early morning hours of Thursday. Computer models continue to bounce around a tad with the exact track of the axis of heaviest snow, but the map on the left is the best bet of where the 6"+ area will set up. Areas closer to the warm front will see some mixing at times of a heavy wet snow, which will limit snow totals as it melts and compacts through the day and even through the overnight on Thursday. Models have been consistent in placing the heaviest band of snow from far SE MN through an area just north of Green Bay, Wisconsin. Confidence is high in this location, but on the outskirts of the band such as Minneapolis a sharp snow to no snow gradient will set up, so more tweaks may be needed in this area, same goes for Madison and SE Wisconsin as the rain to snow line may change 20-30 miles, which would have a profound effect on the total you see on your doorstep. Thanks for stopping by, and feel free to follow on Twitter for continued updates.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Robust Winter Storm Pegged to Strike the Midwest
A wide area of heavy snow is expected to move into the Midwest by the middle half of the week. With an arctic area of high pressure setting up to the north before this event, ample cold air will be set in place, providing support for accumulating snow. Snow is expected to break out in the northern Plains Wednesday morning and trek east throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday. Being a Spring storm we would expect a wet and heavy snow, and this will be the case with this winter storm as well. Regarding the amount of snow in your area...as always it will come down to the exact track of the low pressure system. There is heavy model support for a track that takes it through southern Iowa to near Chicago into Lower Michigan. This is our favored track, however, one of the more reliable computer models with a good track record is favoring a track further south, dropping heavy snow into areas of southern Wisconsin, and the outlined area in yellow. The trend this winter with the models is to bring the snow further north that originally thought, so the current forecast we are going with is to drop snow, depicted in the areas on the attached snow map, southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Lots to work through in the next 12-24 hours, expect a more detailed and pinned down snow forecast by that point. Either way, someone will see a memorable snow event of of this. Follow on twitter for live updates
Saturday, March 19, 2016
Winter to Silence the Doubters, it's not over quite yet.
A fierce winter storm looks to bring a variety of weather to midwest on Wednesday. Usually these systems in late March are tough to pin down the potential and location of heavy snow, but with ample cold air settling in, it looks to be a classic looking mid-winter snow event. Weather computer models have been coming together through the last couple days of a track through Nebraska to near Chicago and points east. This would lay down a swath of moderate to heavy snow on the northwest side of the track, with thunderstorms further south and west. In all honesty, this system has been very consistent in the latest model runs and atmospheric data, compared to other systems. However, being that it is still 4-5 days out, amounts and exact locations are certainly in question, but the idea of heavy snow is of high confidence, somewhere across the Midwest. Most likely area in question within the blue shading. While this may change, a broad area of 6-10" of snow if possible, depending on whether or not your area sees the bulk of the snow during the day or during the night. Either way, much of it should melt quickly with a higher sun angle this time of year. There are a couple more systems that may threaten the Midwest further down the pipeline as well. Be sure to check back for updates, as the event nears.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
A Few Tornadoes Likely this Afternoon and Evening
Friday, March 4, 2016
Quick Hitting Snow to be Followed by near Record Warmth
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A weak clipper system will slide in from southern Canada this afternoon into Saturday. Enough cold air will be in place to drop a general 2-4" of snow from northern Minnesota through the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Winter weather advisories have been issued by the National Weather Service. The weather service snow forecast is attached on the right for you. This system is expected to exit the Midwest by Saturday and only bring cool weather for a day or so. Winds will then kick over to a more southerly direction and pump in warm and even moist air from the south heading into next week. The expensive warmth is noted across a variety of models and confidence is high that the Midwest will be well above normal weather will stick around through the next 2 WEEKS! It could rival the warm weather seen in the 2012 Records. This massive ridge developing next week will also kick off some severe weather heading into early next week. We will have more on this active and Spring-like pattern in the next several days.
Monday, February 29, 2016
March to come in like a Lion for some
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Public Service Announcement, Be Aware of "Fantasy Maps" and Click-Bait
With the ever growing access of numerical weather models to the general public, miss-use is becoming an increasing problem. Many of these publications are from non-reputable weather facebook pages or other social media platforms. However, within the past couple years local TV stations have been posting such "forecasts" as well. Their weather graphics service is now granted the ability to publish raw model data such as a snow forecast, and this is a problem.
See, even with a brief precursor embedded in the post suggesting "it's only one model," facebook users don't always care. They either do not read the size 12 font in the upper right hand corner, or more simply are not familiar with what a weather model is used for. We seem to be shifting into a culture of weather forecasting where each model is a different "forecast" instead of each meteorologist sifting through the data/weather models and creating their own forecast. It takes experience and an understanding of the atmosphere to properly vet each model, and the public is unaware of this.
Regarding recent "viral" snow forecasts, some of which I have embedded in this article, these maps are just unfair to the innocent public. They play to the strong feelings people have about snow. The divide between "snow lovers" and "snow haters" is strong and is an outspoken attitude on social media. It's is so easy for someone to share a similar map with excitement or with anguish. These maps play to the human nature of a simple numerical value being useful. Seeing a 24" number over your city is cause for alarm, and it should be, but this is not how meteorology works. Telling the future is difficult and impossible; there isn't one map that can capture how much snow will pile up on your doorstep, contrary to popular belief. We need to be conscience on what we share and how we publish posts about weather. While there is not a true way to fix this issue, I hope people become more responsible and knowledgeable on what/when they share and learn these forecasts will never come to fruition. The hope for the meteorology community it to leap over this hurdle/dent these model forecasts have had on the social sciences aspect of forecasting and the public becomes more appreciable to the success of numerical weather prediction.
Now, since there is a threat of an early week winter storm somewhere across the Midwest let's talk about it. A relativity deep trough is expected to dig into the eastern half of the country by Monday and Tuesday, aiding in the development of a surface area of low pressure. The exact track and location of accumulating snow is still in question as the system is well out in the data sparse Pacific Ocean. We will have details when the storm gets closer and provide more plausible forecasts on accumulation snow and severe weather further south.
The first couple "snow forecasts" off the model (GFS) are attached above, but just 6 hours later this model tells a different story (see below). This significant change is simple proof on how these model can and do change with events beyond 3-5 days. Please be aware with these forecasts/clickbait, as only you can prevent model-hype. Thanks for stopping by and feel free to follow me on twitter for more weather updates, Twitter
By: Tanner Verstegen
By: Tanner Verstegen
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Heavy Snow and Blizzard Conditions Tuesday
Theis area of low pressure will ride along a tight temperature gradient and the 250mb jet stream at higher levels. Notice the forecasted temperatures off the GFS model (via weatherbell) in the attached image. This clashing of a cold airmass vs a warm moist airmass will add fuel to the system. Even severe weather and tornadoes are expected to develop south and east of the track on Tuesday. Furthermore, blizzard conditions are expected across Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa on Tuesday and gusty winds with a fluffy snow will create reduced visibilities at times.
The system is currently crashing on shore this afternoon, and is finally reaching a part of the world where weather observations and data will be ample. This "landfall" will aid in an even more accurate forecast, giving more tools for meteorologists to look at and allow weather models to do what they do best. The track of the system does seem to be in good agreement. However, the potential of poor data achieved over the Pacific Ocean will now be sampled on the west coast and some minor tweaks to the forecast are still possible in the next 24 hours. Be sure to keep it here to midwest weather or follow the meteorologist on Twitter. Thanks for reading.
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Groundhog Day Blizzard Unfolding Next Week
Computer models and data/observations are continuing to increase confidence in a high impact winter storm to start off next week. The question is who and where sees the bulk of the extreme weather. Right now the system that is forecasted to work into the Midwest is still out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, where data is relativity sparse. A lot can change as this disturbance evolves, but the idea of a low pressure ejecting from the Rockies on Monday looks concrete. Blizzard condition are expected to develop in parts of Kansas as we head into Monday and Tuesday. The highest confidence is located in this location, as we have a good evidence that this piece of energy will cross through the four corner regions and dump heavy snow and high winds northwest of the track. Meanwhile, the question of exactly where it goes next us still somewhat up in the air. A stronger system would phase more to the west, while a weak system looks to pass through the Chicago area. Current model guidance is leaning towards a low pressure tracking over Chicago, which would dump the heaviest snow from central Iowa to Northern Wisconsin, similar to this Winter Storm. On the left is a variety of model solutions for this winter storm through a process called ensembling. This process gathers observations and runs the model numerous time. After it is ran with the most current data and observation it is than ran again with 22 different tweaks in the data to make up for error and lack of data across the Pacific Ocean. A few degrees or miles of certain features can certainly affect what happens downstream. It like a pebble in lake, the further away you get the less uniform the waves look. As we get closer in time, the exact track will continue to be easier to pin down and increase confidence. Be sure to keep it here to Midwest Weather as we will have a snow map out over the weekend. You can follow the blog meteorologist on Twitter or 'like' us on facebook. Thanks for reading.
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Strongest Winter Storm in 2016, thus far
Below are different ensemble runs of the US weather model, the red numbers indicate the strength and location of each possible storm location. Still a large range of possibilities. As we get closer to the event, this range of solutions will consolidate and confidence will grow.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Powerball Odds of Winning Compared to Extreme Weather Events
The Struck by Lightning Odds:
Certainly, struck by lightning is one of the more common methods in comparing lottery odds to a single event, but lets go deeper. The odds of being struck in one year are 1:1,190,000, so you would need to but 245 Powerball tickets of different numbers to have the same odds as being struck by lightning in a year. Or you could buy 10 tickets to have the same odds at winning a million dollars. The odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime is: 1:12,000. You are around 2 times more likely to get struck by lightning twice in a lifetime than win the Powerball. So let's say you buy a Powerball ticket for every drawing in your life for 80 years, odds suggest you are only 3 times more likely to be hit by lightning. Not bad right? It would just cost you $16,640 to buy a ticket every drawing for 80 years, assuming you buy just one ticket. On a side note, the general population, along with improved technology has decreased lightning deaths from over 400 in 1940, to just over 20/year recently, so these odds continue to become more rare!
The Hit by a Tornado Odds:
Most tornado deaths occur from Strong to "Violent" tornadoes, which is defined by the national weather service as EF-3 or larger. This number makes up less than 10 percent of all tornadoes in a year. According to the National Cimatic Data Center most states in the Midwest average about one EF-3 to EF-5 tornado per 50,000 square miles (lowest values in Michigan, highest in Missouri and Kansas). With this data we can estimate the odds of a particular tornado striking your house. Let's say the average path length of a Strong to violent tornado is 5 miles long and a quarter mile wide. This brings the chance of one of these tornadoes hitting a certain point in the Midwest to: 1: 62,500. Now within this path, only a few houses will see the strongest of winds, about 5% of the affected area. This gives your house a 1:1,250,000 chance of getting hit by the violent and damaging tornado winds. This means you are 233 times more likely to get hit by a tornado, living in the Midwest, than win the Powerball.
The Odds of Dying in a Hail Storm:
While hailstones can reach the deadly size of softballs, or even larger, deaths by a hail storm are very uncommon. Large hail is formed when thunderstorm or supercell updrafts become very strong and have the ability to lift hail stones further into the atmosphere. They can then grow larger and larger with time before they are heavy enough to break through the updraft. Some of these smaller stones will get "flung" outside of the updraft and ahead of the larger hail. Luckily, this provides some lead time for the largest of hail, allowing people to seek shelter in time. The odds of getting killed by hail in United State is: 1:734,400,000. Meaning you are 2.5 times more likely to win the Powerball then die from lightning in a year. There have been some events where 9 People have Died in a powerful hail storm, but most have been outside the United States. Deaths have also decreased in the past few decades with advanced warning by the National Weather Service and more effective communication.
The Odds of your House Hit by a Meteor:
Here's an example where the Powerball is on your side. The odds of a meteor hitting you house are 1:182,138,880,000,000! Meaning you are 623,333 times more likely to win the Powerball with a single ticket than to see a meteor on your house. This means, you are MORE LIKELY to win the Powerball twice (if you buy 20 tickets) then to get hit by a meteor. Nice odds right?
Thanks for stopping in at Midwest Weather! We have a Facebook Page and Twitter
Works Cited
"How Dangerous Is Lightning?" NWS Lightning and Heat. Web. 12 Jan. 2016.
"What Are the Odds Of Being Struck By Lightning?" DiscoverTheOddscom. 2012. Web. 12 Jan. 2016.
"Scott Sabol's World of Weather." : Odds of Getting Struck by Lightning and Other Weather. Web. 12 Jan. 2016.
"Some Probability Estimates." Violent Tornado Probability. Web. 12 Jan. 2016.
"Historic Winters Have Delighted, Frustrated and Imperiled - The Boston Globe." BostonGlobe.com. Web. 12 Jan. 2016.
Saturday, January 9, 2016
Quick Hitting Winter Storm Across Chicago to Lower Michigan
Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Some Snow, Excessive Cold Brought down by a Polar Vortex Piece.
The coldest air mass of the season is on the way for the beginning of next week. Temperatures will run 15-25 degrees below average across much of the Midwest by Sunday, this trend will work east through the middle half of the month. There is little doubt that with the combination of winds and cold temperatures, wind chill advisories will be issued sometime next week. This weather will affect the Minnesota Vikings vs Seattle Seahawks NFL game on Sunday, set to be played in Minneapolis at noontime. The temperature will likely stay below zero for the duration of the game, with windchills well below zero. The cold will begin to be a major storyline in the next few days.
The overall pattern of cold is brought to us from the weakening strength of the Polar Vortex. Measured, in part, by the Arctic Oscillation, the AO (for short) is forecasted to tank by the weekend. With this circulation weakening, lobes of cold air are allowed to be displaced from the north and reach down to lower latitudes. Think of it as a spinning top, when its strong all of the top is focused in the center of rotation, but when it starts to wobble, it begins to poke further away from the center of rotation. The same thought process is effective when thinking about the polar vortex. The cold is further tapped into thanks to a couple open wave system, or weak areas of low pressure that are expected to pass through the Midwest over the next couple days. The GFS (global forecast system) model for snowfall is attached above, courtesy of weatherbell. A general 3-5" of snow is possible over the next several days. Contrary to some posts on twitter and facebook you may have seen, this will not be a large system! Partially due to the fact that to energy in the four corners region will be ejected in pieces, instead of one large cluster. Either way, behind the system(s) winds will shift out the northwest and usher in much colder air into the region. Another surge of cold is forecasted on the European model, as seen in the animation above, next week. Below is a look the forecasted wind chills for Sunday morning! They do not moderate much through the next 48 hours, as temperatures and winds continue to be cold and strong, respectively.
Sunday, December 27, 2015
HEAVY SNOW and near Blizzard Conditions Monday
A strong cyclone will move into the Midwest Monday into Tuesday from the south. Ample moisture and enough cold air will be in place to drop excessive amounts of snow across the area. This system is already responsible for 3 FEET of snow in West Texas and is poised for the Midwest. We will not see quite that much, but many areas have the potential to reach a foot of snow with this system. Exactly where the heaviest bands set up will play a major role in who sees these high totals. Western Iowa to far southeast Minnesota looks to be in the hot zone for the heaviest snow, with the U.P. of Michigan also seeing some lake enhancement, where totals over a foot will be common by Tuesday. Another complication to the forecast and travel conditions will be some sleet and freezing rain mixing in for a period of time in eastern Iowa and southeast Wisconsin. Warm aloft, will poke in from the southeast and create a narrow layer of melting. Just how far that can get north will effect snow ratios and snow totals. While this may cut into totals a tad, snow and sleet accumulations will still be substantial across these areas, a winter storm warning is in effect across these parts and points north and west.
On the right is the expect start time for either snow (in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin) or sleet/rain (in Michigan). Once the band reaches you area, expect it to stick around for 18-24 hours. The snow will be heavy at times, with snowfall rates of around an inch an hour expected during the height of the event, before wrapping up late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some flurries and snow showers could linger into Tuesday across Minnesota and Wisconsin, as cold air aloft works into the area, snow totals less than an inch expected Tuesday.
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On the right is the expect start time for either snow (in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin) or sleet/rain (in Michigan). Once the band reaches you area, expect it to stick around for 18-24 hours. The snow will be heavy at times, with snowfall rates of around an inch an hour expected during the height of the event, before wrapping up late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some flurries and snow showers could linger into Tuesday across Minnesota and Wisconsin, as cold air aloft works into the area, snow totals less than an inch expected Tuesday.
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Saturday, December 26, 2015
Possibly Travel Crippling Snow and Ice Storm on the way
Below is a look at two major weather models. **NOT A FORECAST** But it does show the spread in challenges given to a meteorologist. Using a general 10 to 1 liquid to snow ratio:
Monday, December 14, 2015
El Nino to Stand its Ground through the New Year
At this point in the winter it is no secret that El Nino is strong, and has already toppled records, depending on what index you look at. With that said, it certainly continues to play a critical role on the weather across the Lower 48. Over the weekend, record high temperatures were recorded in 23 states, mainly east of the Mississippi River. This unprecedented warm stretch of weather is thanks to a large ridge that has persisted over the eastern half of the country. This blocking, pushes the jet stream north and allows warmer weather from lower latitudes to move north as well. While some people may be ready for winter, mother nature has different ideas. Besides a brief cool down later this week, the rest of December looks to stay on the warm side, east of the Mississippi River.
However, this battling of air masses could set up a major storm system around Christmas. Current indications are that it will be cold enough for snow north and west of the track. We are still 10 days out from the event, so the track is in question, but the best guess would take it up from the southern Plains to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. It looks to the be the best shot for a white Christmas across the most populated areas in the Midwest, besides Tuesday-Wednesday for areas further west...see snow map below. Be sure to check back for updates on this possible Christmas Winter Storm in the coming days!
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Winter Storm Monday into Tuesday
Heavy snow is expected to break out ahead of a developing area of low pressure and area of warm air advection. The snow will begin Monday morning for most places. I wide swath of 6-10" from Sioux City to Minneapolis is expected. Areas near the Mississippi River will battle warm air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, hense the heavier snow west. Higher terrain will amplify snow total in southwest Minnesota, where over a foot of snow is possible. Many of the short term models do indicate numerous areas on banding, so a large gradient in final snow totals is expected. One city could maybe have 8" but 30 miles to the east or west might end up with 3". It will depend exactly where each band sets up. Unfortunately it can be tough to forecast such events, but the most likely amounts are plotted above. Thanks for stopping by at Midwest Weather. Check out the tabs above for more weather information, especially the computer snow output page!
Heavy Snow Monday into Tuesday across the Midwest
Heavy snow is expected to break out ahead of a developing area of low pressure and area of warm air advection. The snow will begin Monday morning for most places. I wide swath of 6-10" from Sioux City to Minneapolis is expected. Areas near the Mississippi River will battle warm air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, hense the heavier snow west. Higher terrain will amplify snow total in southwest Minnesota, where over a foot of snow is possible. A FULL UPDATE will be posted later this evening, including an official Midwest Weather snow map.
Twitter Updates: https://twitter.com/VerstegenWX
Thursday, November 19, 2015
Band of Heavy Snow to Coat Major Midwest Cities
The timing of the snow has a larger role than usual. With it being so warm in recent weeks, and months for that matter, ground temperatures are rather high. A large portion of the snow will come at night which only amplifies the efficiency of snow accumulation on the surface. It will take a bit to accumulate on pavement, but the temperature and snow rate should overcome the warmer pavement temperatures relatively quickly.
Regarding timing, the storm looks to really ramp up by Friday afternoon. After about 12:00, a band of heavier snow will begin to train over central Iowa through Southern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Most of the snow will fall Friday evening into Saturday morning across these areas. This sets up a couple snowy college football games, such as the Northwestern @ Wisconsin games on Saturday. Otherwise, the map should give a general idea when the snow will begin to coast grassy surfaces!
Behind the system winds kick up out of the northwest and usher in cold air from Canada, here is a look at low temperatures for your Sunday. Very cold!...especially with fresh snow cover, off the 12z GFS model. It could be short lived however, as a surge of warm air is possible around Turkey Day! Maybe 15-25 degrees above average!
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Iowa Campus Compact Members
Iowa Campus Compact has continued to expand in recent years. Member colleges and universities represent all sectors of higher education and in all corners of the state. A complete list of members presidents and staff contacts for each campus is below.
Learn more about our members from our annual membership survey.
Access our Annual Membership Meeting materials.
See our Community Engagement Professionals list for more information on member campus contacts.
Allen College
Chancellor Jerry Durham
Buena Vista University
President Fredrick V. Moore
Central College
President Mark Putnam
Clarke University
President Joanne Burrows
Coe College
President David McInally
Cornell College
President Jonathan Brand
Des Moines University
President Angela Walker Franklin
Drake University
President Earl F. "Marty" Martin
Grand View University
President Kent Henning
Grinnell College
President Raynard Kington
Iowa State University
President Steven Leath
Iowa Wesleyan University
President Steven Titus
Iowa Western Community College
President Dan Kinney
Loras College
President Jim Collins
Mercy College of Health Sciences
President Barbara Decker
Morningside College
President John C. Reynders
Mount Mercy University
President Laurie Hamen
Simpson College
President Jay Simmons
University of Iowa
President Bruce Harreld
University of Northern Iowa
President William Ruud
Wartburg College
President Darrel Colson

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Dr. Darwin Dennison
Cameron School of Business
Cameron Executive Network (CEN), Equity Research and Analysis
- Cameron Executive Network (CEN) mentor students in FIN 440, guest lecturer
- Cerfified, Bloomberg Essentials; Equity Analysis, Portfolio Organization and Organization and Management
- Applied Learning Research Scholar, ETEAL; and member of Applied Learning Research Cooperative
- Achieved full professorships, teaching university and major (R-1) research-intensive university.
- Founded and President, DINE Systems, Inc., a nationally ranked software corportation
- Awarded, patent for nutrient analysis, diet improvement algorythm
- Produced, over 5 million dollars in research grant funding.
- Funded, 15 graduate students and provided partial funding for ten undergraduate students
- Million Dollar Club, UNCW
- Fellow, Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership, School of Management, SUNY, Buffalo
- Mentor, O'Keefe Shaw and Company, a full-service personal and retail investment firm
- Elected President, Association for the Advancement of Health Education, Reston, VA.
- Board Member, Board for the Certification of Nutrtion Specialists, Clearwater, FL. (1 of 802 Certified Nutrition Specialists World-Wide)
- Appointed, Research Scholar, American Heart Association, Atlanta, GE.
- International activity in Saragossa, Spain; London, England; and Geneva, Switzerland
- Published, over 50 refereed journal articles; 20 books and software programs; and over 40 funded grants
- West Virginia University Hall of Fame, CPASS


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Retirement should be the longest holiday of your life, but for those with debts it can be full of financial worries.
Three in 10, or 1.1 million older people in debt are considered to be in 'problem debt' and are struggling to make repayments, according to research published by the International Longevity Centre UK and Age UK.
Many people approaching retirement have interest-only mortgages, and may not have the funds in place to repay the capital when their mortgage finishes. They often also have credit card debts and personal loans which might be difficult to repay once their income drops after stopping work.
One way to find the money to pay off all these debts in retirement is to consider equity release.
This type of scheme enables you to release cash from your property to pay off what you owe while allowing you to stay in your home. According to equity release adviser Key Retirement Solutions, providers of the Telegraph Equity Release Service, during the first half of 2013 its customers repaying debts had average debts of more than £20,000, with average monthly repayments of £280.
Remember however, that equity release will reduce the value of your estate and may affect your entitlement to state benefits. An alternative to equity release is to sell your property and downsize, but often this simply isn't practical, or may not be an option for those who don't want to leave their family home.If you are consideringequity release, you should consider plans that are approved by the Equity Release Council. This means the plan will include a 'no negative equity guarantee', so borrowers will never owe more than the value of their property.
Equity Release Calculator - Find out how much cash you could unlock from your property with our handy calculator.
To talk to an equity release specialist call free on 0808 252 9087 or get your free copy of the Telegraph Money Guide to Equity Release


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Hi guys...
I am using Pixel Theme, and when someone wants to leave a "COMMENT" they have to press a button, at the moment is just a plain TEXT, can I change that to a button?
(leave comment for real)
I will like to make it like this:
(Send This For Real)
as you can see the second one showing up as a button but the first one is just plain text.
Thanks in advance...


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I am using Code Snippets to display a Google Maps using & mix of HTML & Javascript. It works great.
Though, I experience a very strange behavior of your plugin.
I did a lot of small modification to my script to perfectly have the map I want, and experienced multiple times that after saving, the snippet wasn't the one I had just saved but a older one.
Do you think this could be auto-save or revisions related that interfere with Code Snippets ?
This is avery annoying behavior !
Best regards,


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Death as a Friend
Published: December 1, 1996
Joseph Cardinal Bernardin was the last great american catholic leader of the Second Vatican Council era. The words that describe that epic period -- open, forward-looking, moderate, collegial -- described him. Cardinal Bernardin, who rose rapidly to national leadership and who was at the center of almost every major development in American Catholicism for three decades, was perfectly suited to the era.
The Cardinal spoke with The New York Times Magazine in October in what was to be his last interview. In August, he had announced that he had inoperable cancer. His death at 68, on Nov. 14, prompted grief and praise across the nation. ''I know of no other bishop who has given so much for so long so willingly and lovingly,'' Bishop Anthony M. Pilla of Cleveland said in tribute three days before at the National Conference of Catholic Bishops.
In 1981, as Archbishop of Cincinnati, he oversaw the drafting of a pastoral letter against the use of nuclear weapons, provoking a heated debate between the bishops and the Reagan Administration. But Bernardin would not swerve from his commitment.
In 1982, when the Pope appointed him Archbishop of Chicago, he found an archdiocese in disarray, its priests disheartened by years of arbitrary administration and charges of financial misconduct. With his patient charm and willingness to listen, Bernardin won back the confidence of the clergy and the laity and was soon elevated to the rank of Cardinal. He appealed to Chicago's black community by throwing his support behind Harold Washington, the city's first black mayor, and by speaking out against racism. ''Racism in our country and in this metropolitan area is a fact,'' he told worshipers, adding, ''racism is a sin.''
Time and again, he demonstrated his ability to act decisively without being abrupt: in response to the explosive scandals involving sexual abuse of minors by priests, he removed more than a score of priests and established a new review board, made up primarily of lay people. Later, when a former seminary student falsely accused him of sexual abuse, the Cardinal found support from all sides; in time, he forgave, and prayed with his accuser, who was dying of AIDS.
By nature, Cardinal Bernardin was a reconciler. Just last summer, he launched the Catholic Common Ground Initiative, an attempt to rescue discussions in the American church from the angry exchanges of right and left. He did not believe in hard-line ideologies of any stripe, and so was attacked by conservatives, who felt he was not vigorous enough in denouncing abortion, and by liberals, who were disappointed by his unswerving belief in the institution of the church. He did not, however, shrink from contentious subjects. He raised the issues of married priests and female priests with Pope John Paul II. Even as he prepared to die -- a time when he said he did not ''feel a frenzy to do a lot of things''-- he wrote letters, including one just a few days before his death, asking the Supreme Court to uphold state laws banning physician-assisted suicide. As one non-Catholic Chicagoan put it, ''He has shown us how to die.''
Q: Your cancer was diagnosed as terminal the Wednesday of convention week here in Chicago in August. On Friday, you called a news conference to announce this diagnosis. Why so hastily?
Cardinal Bernardin: I've always felt obligated to let the priests and people whom I serve know what my physical condition is. If the people know you're ill, they pray for you, and that too is a motive.
Q: You had an excellent relationship with the Chicago media the last several years. Why?
A: I've tried to be open. When I was falsely accused of sexually abusing Steven Cook, I met with the press both here and in Washington about 10 times in one week. If I had said, ''These questions are improper,'' the suspicion of guilt would have taken over. The same has been true about my illness.
Q: You think of death not as an enemy but as a friend. How can death be a friend?
A: As a person of faith, I believe that death is the transition from this life to the next, and so in that sense, it's not something that we should deny or avoid at all costs. However, I have to tell you very frankly that I grew up with three fears. One was the fear of death. I remember many times in years past thinking, ''Well, when I'm retired, I'll think about that, but now is not the time.'' I was always afraid of being falsely accused of something serious, because, unless you have a certain credibility, your leadership is not going to be effective. And the third was the fear of cancer. My father died of cancer. I remember when I went to the cancer center, I saw the big sign up there: Loyola Cancer Center. I had difficulty believing that it was actually happening to me. All three things -- the accusation, the diagnosis and the prospect of premature death -- this all in a three-year period.
Now, to go back to death as a friend. The person who helped me assimilate that in a very personal way was Henry Nouwen $(a Catholic priest and professor of pastoral theology at Yale$). Shortly before he died, he spent over an hour talking to me about being friendly with death. If you see death as a friend, you begin to talk with your friend, and little by little, some of the fears begin to dissipate. At that time I was going through daily radiation and I was not feeling so well. I needed to be reminded that if you see death as a transition, if you see death as part of your incorporation of the Paschal mystery $(the Easter mystery of Jesus' death and resurrection$), then why should you not see it as a friend? That doesn't mean your human emotions are all in place. There have been times when I wake up in the middle of the night, and I find myself in tears. You can control your mind and will, but your human emotions are pretty much on their own.


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Catch a Fish, Throw a Ball, Fly a Kite
21 Timeless Skills Every Child Should Know (and Any Parent Can Teach!)
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Oh What a Slaughter
Massacres in the American West: 1846--1890
by Larry McMurtry
- #889 in Nonfiction, History, Americas, United States
- #133 in Nonfiction, History, Americas, United States, 19th Century
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In Oh What a Slaughter, Larry McMurtry has written a unique, brilliant, and searing history of the bloody massacres that marked -- and marred -- the settling of the American West in the nineteenth century, and which still provoke immense controversy today.
Here are the true stories of the West's most terrible massacres -- Sacramento River, Mountain Meadows, Sand Creek, Marias River, Camp Grant, and Wounded Knee, among others. These massacres involved Americans killing Indians, but also Indians killing Americans, and, in the case of the hugely controversial Mountain Meadows Massacre in 1857, Mormons slaughtering a party of American settlers, including women and children.
McMurtry's evocative descriptions of these events recall their full horror, and the deep, constant apprehension and dread endured by both pioneers and Indians. By modern standards the death tolls were often small -- Custer's famous defeat at Little Big Horn in 1876 was the only encounter to involve more than two hundred dead -- yet in the thinly populated West of that time, the violent extinction of a hundred people had a colossal impact on all sides. Though the perpetrators often went unpunished, many guilty and traumatized men felt compelled to tell and retell the horrors they had committed. From letters and diaries, McMurtry has created a moving and swiftly paced narrative, as memorable in its way as such classics as Evan S. Connell's Son of the Morning Star and Dee Brown's Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee.
In Larry McMurtry's own words:
"I have visited all but one of these famous massacre sites -- the Sacramento River massacre of 1846 is so forgotten that its site near the northern California village of Vina can only be approximated. It is no surprise to report that none of the sites are exactly pleasant places to be, though the Camp Grant site north of Tucson does have a pretty community college nearby. In general, the taint that followed the terror still lingers and is still powerful enough to affect locals who happen to live nearby. None of the massacres were effectively covered up, though the Sacramento River massacre was overlooked for a very long time.
"But the lesson, if it is a lesson, is that blood -- in time, and, often, not that much time -- will out. In case after case the dead have managed to assert a surprising potency.
"The deep, constant apprehension, which neither the pioneers nor the Indians escaped, has, it seems to me, been too seldom factored in by historians of the settlement era, though certainly it saturates the diary-literature of the pioneers, particularly the diary-literature produced by frontier women, who were, of course, the likeliest candidates for rapine and kidnap."
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eBook Details
- Simon & Schuster, June 2010
- Imprint:
Simon & Schuster
- 9781439141496
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In a few months, football teams from schools throughout the state will hit the field for summer workouts. The scorching Georgia heat can't be avoided, but recent rule changes made by the Georgia High School Association aim to keep all players as safe as possible.
With spring comes a full schedule of track and field and - sometimes - unruly weather.
Pinewood Christian Academy senior Taylor Lewis excelled on both offense and defense in the Patriots' 1-0 thriller over Bulloch Academy in a key GISA Region 4-AAA contest Thursday.
The show must go on, and the show will go on at 4 p.m. today at Statesboro High School, where Southeast Bulloch High School's track and field program will host the 9th Annual Plankenhorn Invitational.
BROOKLET - Entering play Wednesday, the Savannah Christian boys soccer team held a perfect 7-0 record, a 37-4 scoring advantage over opponents and a No. 6 state ranking.
Three Statesboro High School Lady Blue Devils had their moment on Senior Night against South Effingham on Tuesday night, but for a brief moment, an electric strike from a freshman stole the show.
Statesboro's Jonathan Bachant turns 18 today. That's one year for every hole he's been dominating on the golf course.
BA girls upset Edmund Burke Academy at tennis
With a large crowd on hand to celebrate Senior Night, the Statesboro girls' trio of seniors made it a soccer game to remember.
Bulloch Academy scored a total of 28 goals as both the girls and boys teams routed squads from Memorial Day School in a non-region soccer doubleheader Tuesday.
PEMBROKE - Pitchers J.D. Smith, Taylor Burroughs and Eli Page combined to lead Southeast Bulloch High School to a 7-1 victory over Bryan County High School in a baseball game Tuesday.
Lightning and rain were the toughest competitors at the 13th annual Gator Relays at the Georgia Southern University track and field complex.
Athletes representing 22 independent schools from around the state and even one from Alabama will converge on Statesboro today for the 13th annual Gator Relays.
Screven County High School's boys track and field team scored 140 points to win a meet Thursday. The Gamecocks beat South Effingham (112), Effingham County (109), Savannah Christian (61) and Swainsboro (53).
Last season, as a No. 3 seed in the state tournament, Southeast Bulloch had to take a long ride before a first-round exit. This year, the Yellow Jackets are aiming to stick around a bit longer.
On a sweltering Wednesday afternoon, Statesboro High School and Bulloch Academy squared off in the showcase game of the 5th Annual Mirian Burnette "Strike Out ...
Tuesday kicked off the start of the 5 th Annual Miriam Burnette Memorial "Strike Out" Alzheimer's softball tournament – where 15 teams from around Bulloch ...
© 2016 Statesboro Publishing - All Rights Reserved
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Elise R. Durr RitesMarch 22,2013Elise R. Durr Rites
Funeral services for Elise Rose Durr, 72, of Mount Holly who died March 16, 2013, were held Thursday, March 21, 2013, at Christ the King Church. Officiating was the Rev. Justin Baker, pastor.
Graveside services will be held Monday, March 25, at 1 p.m. at Calvary Cemetery in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
Elise Cassarino was vocalist.
William Gower-Johnson was organist.
Bearers were John Durr, David Durr, Gordon Cheyne and Paul Torillo.
Prayer services were held Wednesday, March 20, at Clifford Funeral Home by the Rev. Baker.MORE IN ObituariesWilliam L. King Jr.
DORSET William L. King Jr., 89, of Dorset, died Aug. 16, 2016. Full StorySarah Welch
CASTLETON Sarah ( Marsden ) Welch, 91, died Aug. Full StoryWalter E. Full Story
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Hello Guys,
Need some help please.I basically need to make a page on my wp site secure.I want only authorised users to assess that page.
1) How can i do that please?
2) Also, not entirely sure about this.Will it be the same password for every user? I hope not, because that may not make it very secure.I would prefer to create seperate passwords for users.
Please advise if you can.


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Compatibility: Requires iOS 3.1.3 or later. Compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch.


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Rodgers & Hammerstein's South Pacific at Grove Theatre
* Additional fees apply. No coupon or promo codes necessary to enjoy the displayed discount price.
The last date listed for South Pacific was Sunday June 16, 2013 / 2:00pm.
Most Popular Theater Event Nearby
A View from the Bridge -- Arthur Miller's Classic About a Complicated Family
- Full Price:
- $95.00
- Our Price:
- $50.00
The Young Vic production of Arthur Miller's A View from the Bridge was the theatrical event of the… More
Venue Details
Reviews & Ratings
Featured review from Ed WestRed Velvet
view more less of this review
Absolutely fantastic rendition of South Pacific. The voices were outstanding. The production was smooth, transitions flawless. A great evening for the five of us. It is rare when a group of divergent ages all agree.
star this review starred report as inappropriate
The show was as expected. They did a good job considering they are not professionals and we didn't
'pay for professional status performers.
star this review starred report as inappropriate
I actually bought these tickets thinking it was in Glendale. It was in Upland and I expected disaster. I was blown away by this production. The set was amazing (yes amazing) the talent was first rate, sound and light spot on. One character was...continued
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Fantastic - probably the best thing we've ever seen at the Grove. All cast members were exceptional with great voices. Usually some cast members outshine many of the voices but not this time. Everyone was great. We went with friends they loved...continued


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Hi, quick question. Im working with WPMU -but just now I have a query to do with the general WPDB calls.
I have a query that pulls the blog_id from the blogs table. I then go into a loop. In that loop, I want to use a query similar to:
$wpdb->query("SELECT * FROM {$wpdb->$VARIABLE_posts}");
Basically the variable is passed from the first query (say the number 4). It should then be dumped into the second query, so that the second query turns out to be:
$wpdb->query("SELECT * FROM {$wpdb->4_posts}");
but its just now happening. Am I trying too hard and theres a simple way of doing it? Or am I missing something else?
Thanks in advance for the help!


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- Report: #971229
Report - Rebuttal - Arbitrate
Complaint Review: tcf bank
tcf bank8020 highway7 st.louis park, Minnesota United States of America
tcf bank i went to deposit my cash i started off with 3800 i only took 500 out the money which would have left me with 3300 and they only put 2400 in my saving account i went though drive thru i didnt get a de st.louis park, Minnesota
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This report was posted on Ripoff Report on 11/19/2012 07:07 AM and is a permanent record located here: http://www.ripoffreport.com/r/tcf-bank/stlouis-park-Minnesota-55426/tcf-bank-i-went-to-deposit-my-cash-i-started-off-with-3800-i-only-took-500-out-the-money-971229. The posting time indicated is Arizona local time. Arizona does not observe daylight savings so the post time may be Mountain or Pacific depending on the time of year.
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I have a custom site that has a wordpress blog (in a sub-directory). Is it possible to have the search box (widget) appear on my custom home page? I was hoping for a snippet of code to insert on my home page.
thank you!
I have a custom site that has a wordpress blog (in a sub-directory). Is it possible to have the search box (widget) appear on my custom home page? I was hoping for a snippet of code to insert on my home page.
thank you!
If you want to use WordPress outside of WordPress you simply need to require() wp-load.php, which is found in the root of the WordPress installation. Since your site is in a sub-directory, you'll want to look in that folder. Then you'll call the search form where ever you want it. So something like this:
require( 'subfolder/wp-load.php' );
Things to pay attention to...
1) The path inside the
require() function will change according to where you are relative to where the wp-admin.php file is. Also, replace "subfolder" with your actual folder name :).
2) The
require() function need only be called ONCE per page it's used on. In fact, I use require_once() as it does the same thing, but does a check to make sure the file hasn't already been called. Just a safety measure on my part.
3) Though the
require() function CAN go anywhere, it's generally good practice to place it a the very top of the file. This means you would separate the
get_search_form() function from the
require() function, as you'll want the search form somewhere appropriate on the page
Let me know if this makes sense. Good luck.
I have this in the beginning of my <body>
require( 'wordpress/wp-load.php' );
and this where I want the search widget to appear
<?php get_search_form(); ?>
but it is not executing the code. 'wordpress' is my wordpress/blog directory, where the wp-admin directory is and the wp-load.php file is. Not sure if I am missing something. Thank you for your response!
Ah... you might need the absolute path instead of a relative one. Try this instead:
<?php require( $_SERVER['DOCUMENT_ROOT'] . '/wordpress/wp-load.php' ); ?>
still no luck. The site is http://www.knowthyselfwellness.com. The search widget should appear under the mailing list form. when I view source I see the code but not the data it should have pulled in.
Well, the fact that you seeing the actual PHP code is the problem. It's not being parsed by the PHP compiler. So my guess is the filename does not have a .php extension? Maybe the filename is index.htm or index.html? Renamve the file and give it a .php extension. Then it will be parsed properly and all should work.
That worked! thank you for your help, it is much appreciated.
You are welcome. Please mark this post as resolved so other people know. Glad I could help!
This topic has been closed to new replies.


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Minimum Security by Stephanie McMillan
- January 15, 2013
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I'm a vampire baby, sucking blood from the earth
I'm a vampire baby, sell you twenty barrels worth…
Neil Young
Everyone's ****** and they don't even know.
Mother Mother- The Stand
Yesterday was a piece of the planet, today, the whole thing, tomorrow the UNIVERSE!!!
In order to survive the Plutocrats and their slaves will need to move off planet eventually. This after most of humanity is dead and they can live the high wasteful life unimpeded.
China is putting factories there, the USA is putting military bases there.
Continuous expansion isn't easy; as economies become saturated, there's less opportunity for profitable investment. So they have to invent ways to turn more things into commodities, invading us through privatization and monetizing every aspect of our lives, from our emotions to genetic material.
Mr. Ima, you are most certainlly correct, Africa is the "next place." The pattern seems to be that we find an underdeveloped country where the number of people are higher than the number of jobs so the people are very happy (or their governments say that they are, i.e. China) for a job in a factory or whatever. After a period of time the workders start to say "wait a minute, people elsewhere are getting three times what we are for the same job." Then there are either riots or strikes or some such that are, for a time, brutally put down until the USA, France or Time magazine threatens to intervene and the wages rise. This scenario is repeated a couple of times and pretty soon the country isn't such a bargain anymore, especially if you factor in the cost of shipping. So its time to move on to the next place. But guess what? After Africa there are no next places, except maybe South and Central America, but if memory serves we did that already. Plus several of those countries are doing rather well already and don't need us.
In addition, having taught the resident population how to build and run factories they can kick us out and become our competition. So how is the Mars landing project coming along?
This earth looks very much like the poisoned earth of the Borg alternate shown at the beginning of Star Trek:First Contact." A gray and brown world whose atmosphere holds quantities of Florine, Carbon Dioxide and Methane.
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Following Benford's Law, or Looking Out for No. 1
By MALCOLM W. BROWNE
Published: August 4, 1998
DR. THEODORE P. HILL asks his mathematics students at the Georgia Institute of Technology to go home and either flip a coin 200 times and record the results, or merely pretend to flip a coin and fake 200 results. The following day he runs his eye over the homework data, and to the students' amazement, he easily fingers nearly all those who faked their tosses.
''The truth is,'' he said in an interview, ''most people don't know the real odds of such an exercise, so they can't fake data convincingly.''
There is more to this than a classroom trick.
Dr. Hill is one of a growing number of statisticians, accountants and mathematicians who are convinced that an astonishing mathematical theorem known as Benford's Law is a powerful and relatively simple tool for pointing suspicion at frauds, embezzlers, tax evaders, sloppy accountants and even computer bugs.
The income tax agencies of several nations and several states, including California, are using detection software based on Benford's Law, as are a score of large companies and accounting businesses.
Benford's Law is named for the late Dr. Frank Benford, a physicist at the General Electric Company. In 1938 he noticed that pages of logarithms corresponding to numbers starting with the numeral 1 were much dirtier and more worn than other pages.
(A logarithm is an exponent. Any number can be expressed as the fractional exponent -- the logarithm -- of some base number, such as 10. Published tables permit users to look up logarithms corresponding to numbers, or numbers corresponding to logarithms.)
Logarithm tables (and the slide rules derived from them) are not much used for routine calculating anymore; electronic calculators and computers are simpler and faster. But logarithms remain important in many scientific and technical applications, and they were a key element in Dr. Benford's discovery.
Dr. Benford concluded that it was unlikely that physicists and engineers had some special preference for logarithms starting with 1. He therefore embarked on a mathematical analysis of 20,229 sets of numbers, including such wildly disparate categories as the areas of rivers, baseball statistics, numbers in magazine articles and the street addresses of the first 342 people listed in the book ''American Men of Science.'' All these seemingly unrelated sets of numbers followed the same first-digit probability pattern as the worn pages of logarithm tables suggested. In all cases, the number 1 turned up as the first digit about 30 percent of the time, more often than any other.
Dr. Benford derived a formula to explain this. If absolute certainty is defined as 1 and absolute impossibility as 0, then the probability of any number ''d'' from 1 through 9 being the first digit is log to the base 10 of (1 + 1/d). This formula predicts the frequencies of numbers found in many categories of statistics.
Probability predictions are often surprising. In the case of the coin-tossing experiment, Dr. Hill wrote in the current issue of the magazine American Scientist, a ''quite involved calculation'' revealed a surprising probability. It showed, he said, that the overwhelming odds are that at some point in a series of 200 tosses, either heads or tails will come up six or more times in a row. Most fakers don't know this and avoid guessing long runs of heads or tails, which they mistakenly believe to be improbable. At just a glance, Dr. Hill can see whether or not a student's 200 coin-toss results contain a run of six heads or tails; if they don't, the student is branded a fake.
Even more astonishing are the effects of Benford's Law on number sequences. Intuitively, most people assume that in a string of numbers sampled randomly from some body of data, the first non-zero digit could be any number from 1 through 9. All nine numbers would be regarded as equally probable.
But, as Dr. Benford discovered, in a huge assortment of number sequences -- random samples from a day's stock quotations, a tournament's tennis scores, the numbers on the front page of The New York Times, the populations of towns, electricity bills in the Solomon Islands, the molecular weights of compounds, the half-lives of radioactive atoms and much more -- this is not so.
Given a string of at least four numbers sampled from one or more of these sets of data, the chance that the first digit will be 1 is not one in nine, as many people would imagine; according to Benford's Law, it is 30.1 percent, or nearly one in three. The chance that the first number in the string will be 2 is only 17.6 percent, and the probabilities that successive numbers will be the first digit decline smoothly up to 9, which has only a 4.6 percent chance.
A strange feature of these probabilities is that they are ''scale invariant'' and ''base invariant.'' For example, it doesn't matter whether the numbers are based on the dollar prices of stocks or their prices in yen or marks, nor does it matter if the numbers are in terms of stocks per dollar; provided there are enough numbers in the sample, the first digit of the sequence is more likely to be 1 than any other.
The larger and more varied the sampling of numbers from different data sets, mathematicians have found, the more closely the distribution of numbers approaches what Benford's Law predicted.


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Skip to comments.Who Destroyed the Economy? The Case Against the Baby Boomers
Posted on 10/08/2012 8:11:26 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Retirees and near-retirees are leaving behind a devastated economy for their children ... but are we doing anything to fix it? Here, two generations debate who's really to blame for the wreckage.
CRESCENT LAKE, Ore.--My father taught me how to throw a baseball and divide big numbers in my head and build a life where I'd be home in time to eat dinner with my kid most nights. He and my mother put me through college and urged me to follow my dreams. He never complained when I entered a field even less respected than his. He lives across the country and still calls just to check in and say he loves me.
His name is Tom. He is 63, tall and lean, a contracts lawyer in a small Oregon town. A few wisps of hair still reach across his scalp. The moustache I have never seen him without has faded from deep brown to silver. The puns he tormented my younger brother and me with throughout our childhood have evolved, improbably, into the funniest jokes my 6-year-old son has ever heard. I love my dad fiercely, even though he's beaten me in every argument we've ever had except two, and even though he is, statistically and generationally speaking, a parasite.
This is the charge I've leveled against him on a summer day in our Pacific Northwest vision of paradise. I have asked my favorite attorney to represent a very troublesome client, the entire baby-boom generation, in what should be a slam-dunk trial--for me. On behalf of future generations, I am accusing him and all the other parasites his age of breaking the sacred bargain that every American generation will pass a better country on to its children than the one it inherited.
(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...
I never blamed the Baby Boomers for the SS/Medicare mess. I blame them for having enough vocal and active members that were able to change the course of the country in the 60s. Also, I blame the "Greatest Generation" more for that. Like Dennis Prager says, they had great morals but failed to pass them on to their children.
The Greatest Generation was all for the too-good-to-be-true transfer of wealth that was the SS/Medicare Ponzi scheme.
HOw many posts before this thread turns into the typical FR war zone of "I earned my Social Security and Medicare and I'm taking every penny" vs. "You're a greedy old moocher"??? Pass the popcorn.
Why continually antiagonize them with this kind of meaningless blame fixing?
There is only one root to blame for the current economy - CREDIT. Credit has the government spending money it does not have. Credit has launched the housing bubble through the Community Reinvestment Act selling mortgages to people who can't afford them. And likewise, a large majority of Americans are spending money they dont have - I know, I was one of them.
It was not till I took Dave Ramsey's Financial Peace training (currently on week 4) that I realized how the nation's views of credit have changed so radically since the 1950's.
Well I may have been contributing to the problem before but no longer. I cut up the card and closed the account last week. I still have a lot of debt to pay back and I will do it. It may be a tad uncomfortable beween now and then, but it will be acomplished and I WILL live debt free from now on.
It is only a matter of time before the checks simply do not come no matter what anyone thinks of the debate.
"Boomers will be the first generation of retirees to fully enjoy the Medicare prescription-drug benefit."
Interesting. If this young man had any idea of how much Medicare is going to change under Obamacare, he would not be complaining of this. I lecture all over my state about Health Care. Folks currently over 55 are, by far, the hardest hit group by Obamacare.
Under Obamacare, by 2019, reimbursements to Doctors under Medicare will be LESS than Medicaid reimbursements. Medicaid is probably one of the worst medical programs in the world. What Obamacare accomplishes is to make sure seniors will receiving worse medical core than Medicaid currently gives.
It is going to be a huge shocker for seniors.
My grandfather always said " Credit is the ruination of a nation.".
My father, a wonderful man, a WWII vet, always said that he received more in SS & Medicare than he ever put in. He also said he wasn't going to send the checks back, either, lol.
My baby boomer husband and I have been paying into these programs for over 40 years and have never been on food stamps, welfare, or medicaid.
In other words, there's plenty of blame to spread around various generations.
Because enough of them sucked as parents to create brats who sent things to hell in a handbasket.
How many generations back shall we take that particular charge?
The younger generation whining and crying again....Endlessly blaming others.
It seems this is all they do.
The economy was destroyed by the Dems attempt to make home ownership an entitlement.
I remember a sixties where moms and dads were shocked and angered that everything they were trying to teach and hand down to their children was roundly and sneeringly rejected as being the BS of "the Establishment". Families were being torn apart. There was NO "peace and love". It was a violent decade in every respect. I hated the sixties.
Look at little closer at this generation, and you will find that most of the blame you sling at the Boomers, rightly belongs with the Silents.
All the way back. This is a problem that has been building since FDR instituted the first national transfer payment system in the 1930s. That is why it is unfair to say "the Boomers" are destroying the country by taking SS and Medicare. The Welfare State that was set up by the Dems in the 1930s and that was expanded in EACH generation since is what is destroying the country.
The answer isn't to cut off SS and Medicare but the answer isn't to let Boomers continue on with the program "as is" either.
My parents, in their 80's, have raked in many, many times what they put into Medicare. Now early Baby Boomers are doing the same.
"The economy was destroyed by the Dems attempt to make home ownership an entitlement."
The concept of home ownership for all dates back to the settlement of the colonies and frontier; there was land for all, and subsequent homesteading laws would transfer ownership to people who would settle and work land.
Without home ownership, you end up with too many people with no stake in an area/town/state; it is a noble goal, though it has been applied in bad ways.
As for blaming generations, I think if the boomers' children preferred new babies over new cars we'd be in better shape; we are importing whole cultures to replace the "Americans" that will never be born.
Boomers didn't give us the "Great Society." None of them could even vote for LBJ. Only the oldest boomers voted for Bobby Kennedy in 68 or McGovern in 72. It wasn't until the 82 midterms when all of the boomers could even vote.
Not every boomer was a hippie. Boomers gave us Reagan, and also Clinton. Some of them gave us Osama (although that's more split), but the older millennials (Younger ones haven't voted yet) are the most guilty of giving us that clown.
I went to this guys Urban center website, and took a look at his info...
Based upon income data, most will take out more than they put in...
However, there is 1 category, what they call high wage ( couple making more than 75K ) that in 2020 retirement, will have paid in more than they will get out..
I fall into this category...
So, I am not a parasite, but I get to call the ones that say I am a parasite, a greedy leech that wants something for nothing, and willing to take away from the payers to give to the non payers...
There is a deeper truth behind these charts.
What happened to the boomers? To varying degrees they were subjected to an educational system, purposely corrupted by Cultural Marxism. The political class was subjected to it much earlier than the rest.
There is no recognition of the hundreds of billions illegals cost NET each year.
There is no recognition of the $20,000 NET per each immigrant household who works at low wages cost each year.
There is no recognition of $~71,000 million blown annually on foreign aid to those who hate us regardless.
There is no recognition of $~25,000 million blown annually on the DOE.
There is no recognition of $~46,000 million blown annually on the HUD.
There is not mention of the $~10,000 million blown annually on the EPA.
There is no mention of the $900 Billion in easily identified medicare/medicaid fraud that IBM offered to fix for free. The offer was rejected more than once.
yada, yada, yada
Nor any recognition of the damage done to our economy and job opportunities by the so-called 'Free Trade' agreements that up to recently were somewhat hidden by enhanced government statistics and access to cheap credit.
Ding ding ding ding! We have a winner.
For more information read:
After reading the article, I have a strong desire to take a tire iron to both these pricks.
The author of this story is so full of crap on so many levals it's unbelievable.There are many reasons the economy of this country has been destroyed and being a baby boomer has nothing to do with it.
I,a baby boomer have worked all of my life and have gotten ZIP from the Federal Government as have a large portion of the other FReepers here.
What destroyed this country is the uncontrolled immigration from the third world.People who can barely add one plus one together coming here and immediately requiring social services and creating huge families that required new schools to support them.
Then there's all of the welfare going to these third world cess pools in the billions of dollars that we're borrowing from the Chinese.
I could continue on and on but I'd be here all day.
The boomers had nothing to do with this disaster.Their Government did.Though the boomers will be the ones who will be paying for it in the end thanks to Obama.
Let's get ready to rumble ping....
BTTT. You beat me to it.
The lies, spin, and errors of omission here are too numerous to point out and refute individually. But you don't have to get very far into the column for the clues to emerge that the author is a Democrat "blame-America-first" scumbag who, mainly, thinks taxes should be (much) higher and that people who worked all their lives and dumped half their paychecks down the government toilet - - rather than the welfare bums, deadbeats, and parasites who comprise his party's "base" - - are the "parasites".
The author's father is apparently a liberal Democrat scumbag, too, and he essentially agrees that yeah, his generation, the "baby boomers", is a bunch of parasites but, hey, so was the previous generation, the so-called "greatest generation".
You can bet the author is just another Democrat punk who pushes the false dichotomy that Americans are confused schizophrenics who want lots of government "services" but "don't want to pay for them". It's a con job. A lie.
The people who demand all the "services" and "free" money from government are NOT the hard-working, traditional American families who pay all the taxes. And the hard-working, traditional American families who pay all the taxes are NOT the bums, deadbeats, and parasites who exchange their votes for "free" stuff from Democrat politicians. These are two separate and distinct groups of people. One group is the Republican "base" and the other is the Democrat "base".
"The Greatest Generation was all for the too-good-to-be-true transfer of wealth that was the SS/Medicare Ponzi scheme."
Social security is fully funded for the next twenty years or so. It has paid hundreds of billions in excess for the last twenty years, since Reagan raised the contributions to "save" the program. It is not a Ponzi scheme. Medicare is a problem because medical costs have risen far faster than anyone could reasonably have anticipated. Still, if you eliminated both programs, and the payroll taxes that fund them, the government would continue to run a massive deficit. The problem is not that SS/Medicare is a Ponzi scheme—it's the the whole of government is a Ponzi scheme. We've been promised we can have what we want (most recently, two wars in the Middle East and free prescription drugs for seniors) without having to pay for them. And who keeps voting for the politicians that promise us that we can have more from the government and cut our taxes as well? We do. No one wants to do the math.
Credit is just a concept. It people's misuse of credit that is the problem.
Lovely Alinsky tactics here. Divide and conquer works.
The biggest federal budget problem by far is Medicare, and SS is only fine for the next 20 years because it is handing out today donations that are supposed to be funding retirements 40 to 60 years into the future. That is exactly how a Ponzi scheme works.
Also, medical costs have risen so fast precisely because half of our system is socialized without even the watchdog capabilities of private sector third- or fourth-party payers.
The money the Boomers paid in to SS over the past 40 years was used for their parents while the Boomers will probably see the money in SS run out in their own lifetime. At least we got something for the money we paid in and our parents were able to benefit from it.
freepers are so daft as a rule...God love them
do most even know the ages of the folks who really voted in the entitlements in the 1960s in Congress?
a fair amount were actually born in the very late 1800s or pre WWI and many were pre WWII generation...possibly a majority
there is blame to spread everywhere to be honest
what we have now are the first coming on line who actually have paid Medicare premiums their whole life and would-should-could get the benefit of that
one stat that the yutes here never like to self examine is that that under 35 kids today are markedly even more liberal than the same group in that detested hippie era
anyone can look up voting by age in 1972 and compare to 2008
that bodes even worse down the road
any generation tends to get more conservative with age overall..we can cross out fingers
Who destroyed the economy. Stupid question. Simple answer: liberals.
I've seen this up close and personal with my parents and in-laws. I don't begrudge them, it's the system. But longevity has also added extra costs. My FIL immigrated here (legally) worked from the age of 50-65, while paying into SS and Medicare, retired at 65 and lived to be 93, all the while collecting SS and using Medicare (he was a pretty healthy guy, so his Medicare usage was minimal until the end.) The outpay compared to the inpay must have been huge. The system was/is broken.
Don't blame all the baby boomers.
There are those of us who are industrious and then there are the former hippies and flower power idiots who ruin everything they touch.
1) rent and price controls cause decline of quality of housing and goods
2) minimum wage and pro labor and pro union legislation causes unemployment
3) chronic budget deficits that are unfinanced cause deflation and increasing national debt
4) lack of gold standard and fractional reserve banking, and the ability of the Fed to create money out of thin air, causes inflation
5) inflation to finance budget deficits causes less savings
6) confiscatory taxation to finance budget deficits causes less savings
7) government borrowing to finance budget deficits causes less savings
8) less savings causes less investment which causes less capital accumulation
9) the assault on the wealth of, spending by, and income of the rich is an assault on private property rights and an assault on the improvement of productivity of labor which causes both lower average real wage rates, and economic stagnation or decline. The assault on the rich also causes destruction of incentives to accumulate and maintain capital and to improve and maintain production. Losses in terms of innovation and the growth of major new industries would be substantial.
10) government redistributionism causes less capital accumulation
11) less capital accumulation causes economic decline
12) environmentalism's fear of and hostility to science, technological progress, and economic progress cause more regulations
13) liberalism's fear and hostility to the rich, businessmen, and capitalists cause more regulations
14) health and safety concerns causes more government regulations
15) excessive government regulations causes economic decline
16) antitrust legislation cause continued survival of inefficient producers, high cost producers, dull producers, and incompetent producers
17) government interventionism which leads to an assault on freedom of entry and competition causes the barring of capable sellers from the market and restricts the range of choice of suppliers to buyers
18) egalitarianism and the libtard assault on economic inequality causes the abolition of causality. Which means the abolition of the connection between and individual's efforts and his income and the abolition of cost in the spending of income. This leads to the incentive to do as little as possible and to spend as much as possible.
19) the decline of rationality and the increased acceptance of the libtard delusion that the government can provide benefits for which the citizens do not have to pay causes the destruction of traditional American values and loss of freedom which leads to all of the above.
No, I don't begrudge anyone who follows the rules and hits the jackpot through the system—and that's a lot of people of the older generations right now.
But you're right, the system is broken.
Ditto for my wife and myself. We've paid maximum on SS for the last 35 years and have never taken a penny of government benefits. I really get tired of being tarred with the "baby boomer" label as a "taker" of government benefits when I've only been a producer and payer all my life.
This dude's whole argument is off, considering that it is the younger generation voting in the socialist Democrats and their policies, while blocking conservative reforms.
There was the 30s and the expansion of government. Many of these folks then spent the early 40s with the government caring for them in a way via the military. Please don't flame me. I saw a man on TV once that cried because when he went into the military in '42, it was the first time he had shoes to wear. Was very emotional to him. When the war was over, they could have help going to school, help getting houses etc... I am not condemning, I am just pointing out how that influenced later decisions by this generation. I also think they tried to pass on values, but like the other post, the values were mocked and rejected during the 60s.
This article is just another attempt to further divide the American People. We are also "Boomers" that have contributed against our will without taking for 40+ years.
This comes from THE ATLANTIC. No need to read any further. THE ATLANTIC is full of old wrecks, fish sh-t and crabs.
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Ian O'Doherty: The Yids are all right!
Published 13/11/2012 | 06:00
I wrote recently about the Mark Clattenberg debacle and I referred to the 'Association of Black Lawyers' and how they had decided to go to the police and accuse the referee of racism.
This was despite the fact that the people who made the complaint weren't even at the Chelsea-United game and had only seen it on television.
So, my mistake was in calling them the 'Association of Black Lawyers' when their actual moniker is the 'Society of Black Lawyers'.
And they are busy little black lawyers as well.
This time they are warning Spurs that they will take legal action against them if their fans continue to call themselves the 'Yid Army'.
The lawyers say this is racist and anti-Semitic, while the Spurs fans state that they have called themselves the Yid Army for more than 50 years.
The Spurs fans also point out that seeing as they do get a lot of anti-Semitic abuse (Arsenal fans have a particularly loathsome habit of making 'hissing' noises to sound like a gas chamber, for example) calling themselves Yids is owning the name. It's a bit like like gay people calling themselves 'queer'.
However, one prominent British Jew has questioned the Spurs habit of calling themselves Yids.
David Baddiel says that as a Jew he is 'uncomfortable' with the practice.
And the response to that from Spurs fans?
Well as one of them said: "He bloody supports Chelsea. Who cares what he thinks?"
Quite right.
The . . . bad words . . . are out there
He's an interesting character, is the scientist Brian Cox.
Not only has he charted a number-one hit with D:ream, but he also worked on the CERN project and, alongside Dara Ó Briain, seems to be on a rather fruitful quest to make science fun. Which it is.
But in his latest show about the workings of the universe he has come up against some rather interesting BBC bureaucracy.
A 'new' planet has been discovered by two amateur astronomers -- it doesn't get much cooler than that, does it? -- and the brainiac Cox wanted to train a radio telescope to the planet's co-ordinates to listen to the sounds it was emitting.
Anyone who has ever tuned into a radio telescope will know that far from being as quiet as a mausoleum, the universe is an incredibly noisy place and this would have been a bloody deadly experiment.
But the Beeb's compliancy unit -- a posh word for 'censors' -- put the kibosh on it because, and I kid you not: As it was going to be a live broadcast, they were worried about unexpected "inappropriate language".
Yeah, you finally make contact with an alien species, changing human history forever and a BBC jobsworth stops you from doing so because the alien might say 'shite'.
Methinks they might have been missing the point . . .
How dare she judge me!
I am sick of being judged as a bloke. I'm sick of being put into a pigeonhole as just another eejit whose only interests revolve around football, music, movies and booze.
And recently, Kelly Brook (pictured . . . in case you hadn't noticed) further stuck the boot into us blokes.
The model -- not renowned for her intellect, it has to be said -- says that her brains, or lack thereof, are irrelevant because: "I can distract men with my boobs."
This is an outrageous slur on all men everywhere and I just feel . . . um, what do I feel again, sorry what was I talking about. Wow, I seem to have totally lost my train of thought.
What was I talking about again?
Phillip Schofield -- ace reporter
If you could genetically engineer bland, then the chances are you would come up with something approaching TV presenter Phillip Schofield, who hosts This Morning on ITV.
That's not to say he is bland in a bad way, it's just that he is the epitome of polite, banal, middle-class Middle England.
David Cameron appeared on the show last Thursday and was presumably expecting the usual soft-soak treatment.
And boy was he wrong.
Discussing the sex-abuse scandal from that care home in North Wales that is rocking Britain at the moment, Schofield put it to the Prime Minister that the scandal even extended as high up as members of Thatcher's Government.
And how did he know that?
Well, said Schofield: "I spent a few minutes on the internet and came up with these names."
Oh. Well, as long as your doing due diligence in your research, Pip, that's all right.
Although Cameron collating being gay with paedophilia during the item was a spectacularly stupid thing to do.
That rarest of interviews -- where both parties come out looking bad.
You really sure about that?
I've always said that we should simply stop the profligate practice of foreign aid. It's simply social welfare on a global level and creates a culture of dependency.
Don't get me wrong, we've all made individual donations, but that's our choice. I just don't like seeing my taxes going to another country.
Now Britain is in the firing line after Friday's announcement that it is going to cut some of the £280m it sends to India.
This has been condemned by numerous charities who point out that millions of Indian kids live in poverty.
That may well be true, but when you consider that India has both a nuclear and a space programme, one could be forgiven for thinking they can afford to feed their own kids without looking to other countries to do it for them.
But maybe I'm just being racist.
Irish Independent