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Joe Posnanski Writes A Bad Article
The headline is news, because Posnanski is the best sportswriter alive. He writes well on nearly every subject he tackles, and is often the most thoughtful pundit on each topic he is assigned. He understands the game and how to spin a good story. There are few people in the world I would rather read than Posnanski. So, when I saw that he wrote about the Mariners, I looked forward to going through it.
I was surprised more than I was disappointed. The guy who almost always gets it right missed, and missed big time.
Let's start with the opening paragraph.
It all seems so obvious now, doesn't it? Bringing back Ken Griffey? Trading for Milton Bradley? Giving 32-year-old Chone Figgins (and his lifetime 99 OPS+) a big-money four-year deal based mostly on one good season (and them moving him to second base)? Signing 32-year-old Jack Wilson to a multi-year contract though he had not played a full-season in two years? Going into the season with Rob Johnson, and his 58 career OPS+, slotted as the regular catcher? Trading for light-hitting Casey Kotchman and inserting him as the Opening Day No. 3 hitter? Building up all sorts of hopes about Ian Snell as a No. 3 starter? Making the moves of a "contender" when the team finished dead last in the American League in runs scored in 2009 and were outscored by 52 runs? Trading a 25-year-old one-time phenom Brandon Morrow and his 98-mph fastball for an older hard-throwing reliever with the same first name (Brandon League)? Expecting another low ERA closer year from David Aardsma? Letting go of Russell Branyan who was one of only two good offensive players on the team in 2009 (he led the team in OPS+)?
In order:
Bringing back Griffey? Bad move, yes. We (and a lot of other people) said so at the time.
Trading for Milton Bradley? Given what the cost was, this was a perfectly reasonable gamble. Carlos Silva wasn't going to make this team, and so the front office paid $3 million to add Bradley, a switch-hitter with a strong offensive track record.
Chone Figgins had one good year? His WAR by season in LAA after becoming a regular: +3.2, +2.4, +0.0, +3.2, +2.7, +6.1. He had one bad year out of six, not one good year. He's just factually wrong about Figgins.
Signing Jack Wilson? Not my favorite move, and I expressed concern about the injuries, but calling it a "multi-year deal" is not really being honest about the contract. Instead of picking up his one year, $8 million option, they signed him for $10 million over two years. He'd been worth $5 million or more every year but one since 2004.
Rob Johnson as the regular catcher? That wasn't the plan. Adam Moore struggled and got hurt. It happens.
Casey Kotchman as #3 hitter? Again, not a factually correct argument. Kotchman hit 3rd against RHP for the first seven days, then moved down to 7th. He's hit in the #3 spot only 20 times all season, most of which have come since the team gave up on the season.
Ian Snell as #3 starter? Another gamble, and maybe you can argue that the team should have known it wouldn't have worked, but you can't really blame the starting rotation for how the season has gone.
Moves of a contender for a team that was outscored last year? We've covered this. Pythag record is useless, and using it is lazy analysis. The Mariners won a game or two more than they should have last year. They had every reason to believe that they had a chance to be decent this year.
Trading Morrow for League? Bad deal, and we said so at the time. There's no defending this one.
Expecting another good year from Aardsma? You can't criticize them for bringing in League to shore up the bullpen on one hand, then act like they were counting on Aardsma to repeat his 2009 season on the other.
"Letting go" of Russell Branyan? The Mariners tried to re-sign him. They offered him more money than he ended up taking from Cleveland later in the winter. The problem is that he wanted a multi-year deal, and the Mariners didn't think it was wise to give a guy with his history of injuries that kind of contract. You know, the exact same thing that Posnanski criticized them for doing with Jack Wilson a few sentences earlier. His right hand is criticizing them for doing something that his left hand criticized them for not doing. He then continues on with this:
Yes, it seems so obvious now that the Seattle Mariners were likely to have a terrible crash this season. And it probably should have seemed obvious in February too. And it probably WAS obvious then — Monday's firing of manager Don Wakamatsu was etched in stone back before spring training.
No, it was not obvious in February. There's a reason you didn't see this coming, Joe – it was impossible to see coming. The things that have sunk the team – getting career worst years from Bradley, Kotchman, Figgins, Jose Lopez, Snell, and Rowland-Smith – were not things that you could predict. There was no reason to believe that those six guys would all play at replacement level or below. None.
A few commenters on Posnanski's blog pointed this out to him, and he responded in another post, suggesting that if we look back a couple of years, maybe it was possible to see this coming, as Figgins and Gutierrez both had mediocre offensive seasons a couple of years ago, so if we just looked at more than one year of data, we could have seen some signs of the crash.
The problem? He's wrong again. This is exactly what the various projection systems have been created to do. They take 3 years (or more, in some cases) of data to give a decent sample size, regress the performances to account for luck, and add in aging curves that take into account the way players skills develop and erode over time. Projections from systems like ZiPS and CHONE have proven to be pretty accurate overall. Here's how those six main failures were projected to do this year:
Chone Figgins: .334 wOBA (ZiPS), .339 wOBA (CHONE), .307 wOBA (actual)
Milton Bradley: .355 wOBA (ZiPS), .353 wOBA (CHONE), .289 wOBA (actual)
Jose Lopez: .322 wOBA (ZiPS), .331 wOBA (CHONE), .266 wOBA (actual)
Casey Kotchman: .333 wOBA (ZiPS), .325 wOBA (CHONE), .275 wOBA (actual)
Ryan Rowland-Smith: 4.52 FIP (ZiPS), 4.41 (CHONE), 6.79 (actual)
Ian Snell: 4.45 (ZiPS), 4.49 (CHONE), 6.48 (actual)
In every single case, the player is performing so far below any reasonable expectation that you cannot make a case that this was something that anyone should have seen coming. Posnanski isn't even consistent with his points. He asserts that we should been questioning the Figgins signing because his 2008 wasn't as good as his 2009, but never mentions the fact that Bradley was the best hitter in the American League two years ago. We should have been worried about the age of Figgins and Bradley, but ignore the fact that Lopez and Kotchman were both at an age where players traditionally have the best years of their career?
Joe's assertion is that looking at multiple years of data would have allowed us to see that the Mariners had a terrible offense and would crash and burn. The problem, though, is that this isn't reality. ZiPS projected the Mariners for 86 wins, and it's based on data, not off-season hype. CHONE was a bit more conservative, coming in at 78 wins, but not projecting any AL West team for more than 86 wins. Overall, the best projection systems thought the M's were about a .500 team, maybe a little bit better.
Guess what? So did we. In my brief pre-season preview, I noted that this was a high variance team that was basically unpredictable. I projected the team for 83 wins and a second place finish behind the Texas Rangers. The guys over at Lookout Landing did two polls on Opening Day, with the majority of the readers suggesting that the team would win 82-86 games and miss the playoffs.
The idea that there was this runaway, uncontrollable optimism about the Mariners season that was unfounded based on facts is just revisionist history. By any reasonable standard, this team should have been viewed as a .500ish club – one with some problems, but also one with strengths. If things went their way, they could have been a contender. Instead, absolutely nothing has gone their way, and the result has been a disaster.
But no one saw this coming, and no one should have seen this coming, because this was essentially the perfect storm of problems in one season. There's a reason Murphy has a law – sometimes, everything that could go wrong does. This is one of those times. It is not, however, a chance to look back and say "well, we should have known better." No, you shouldn't have. The team was evaluated fairly based on the best information available. It didn't work out. That's life.
Sorry Joe, but you're better than this.
51 Responses to "Joe Posnanski Writes A Bad Article"
maqman on
August 11th, 2010 7:53 am
You are right on with this one Dave, I agree 100 percent across the board. I too love Posnanski (and started reading him on your recommendation some time ago) but he fluffed on this one. This is not news, we all fluff and all did before the Ms season started. I still like what GMZ has done to stock the cupboard for next season, even though we have all come to dislike what was served up this season.
charliebrown on
August 11th, 2010 8:29 am
Dave, I have a question. It seems like in Posnanski's second post that he's using OPS+ and you are using wOBA to project offensive production.
Is one better than the other, or would that make any significant difference in projections when it comes to offense?
Dave on
August 11th, 2010 8:31 am
wOBA is better than OPS+. Joe uses it because he's more comfortable with it and he's writing for a more mainstream audience, but its less accurate.
It doesn't matter, though. The point is the same either way.
charliebrown on
August 11th, 2010 8:41 am
OK. Thanks Dave.
diderot on
August 11th, 2010 8:47 am
I feel like a vacation replacement wrote this under his byline.
What bothers me most is that it will add fuel to the yahoos who believe that somehow this adds up to incompetence on the part of Z. I think his job is 100% safe, that he did what he could with the hand he was dealt, and as you so clearly point out, it was the players who failed–not him. Most of all, I'm amazed at all the people who say he was blind to the need for more pop in the middle of the lineup…when he said repeatedly that he would like another bat or two for the middle of the lineup.
And this isn't going to get any better moving forward. People are going to slam ownership for not going out and 'buying' the offense they need…without looking at the available free agents, and realizing that beyond Crawford and maybe Dunn (who would never come here anyway), there aren't any sure things to be purchased.
This is a long term project…and behind the scenes of this year's major league disaster…Z is making great strides in building a first class organization.
The Ancient Mariner on
August 11th, 2010 8:47 am
Yeah, in a nutshell:
* All the gambles failed
* A number of key players who weren't gambles failed
* The bad moves turned out worst-case scenarios
* There was no unexpected good fortune to counterbalance the bad
I don't think the FO has handled this as well as they might have done (though comparing the return for Cliff Lee to the Haren and Oswalt deals shows they haven't lost their touch), but expecting them to never screw up is completely unreasonable — and blaming them for being unlucky is an order of magnitude worse.
I just hope the owners can see that . . .
robbbbbb on
August 11th, 2010 9:06 am
Dave mentioned in his pre-season preview that the M's had opted for a high-variance strategy this year. That is, they took a whole bunch of risks on players who might do well and might blow up.
I posit that this was the correct strategy for the M's this year; it just didn't work.
There's a pretty good core on this team right now: Felix, Ichiro, and Gutierrez. Plus, the M's have some good complementary pieces too, in Figgins, Vargas, etc. When we traded for Lee, all of a sudden the team was looking pretty good.
Here's the thing: The team wasn't quite a contender at that point. So the correct strategy was to take some outrageous risks (Bradley, Bedard, Kotchman) and hope that they panned out. These weren't long-term risks, but they were all risky players.
The risks all failed. The team fell out of contention. However, this allowed them to flip Lee for prospects and strengthen the team's long-term future.
They rolled the dice this year and it didn't work. It didn't cripple the team for the future and we got a lost baseball season. It happens. It was still the right move.
Dennisss on
August 11th, 2010 9:13 am
To put it another way, it would have been utterly stupid to predict, at the beginning of this season, that the Mariners would be this bad. The fact that it turned out this way doesn't change that.
I've seen a lot of crowing this year about how the "stat heads" didn't come to the concensus prediction that the Mariners would be awful, but it would not have made any sense if they had.
Evan on
August 11th, 2010 9:18 am
To put it another way, it would have been utterly stupid to predict, at the beginning of this season, that the Mariners would be this bad. The fact that it turned out this way doesn't change that.
So many people can't seem to understand this. They think that any prediction, if it turned out to be correct, was a good prediction, and that's nonsense.
jimforjim on
August 11th, 2010 9:35 am
I'm also a big Posnanski fan, but what Dave writes is spot on. In reading the first article, I think what Joe is really doing is setting up a straw-man argument, as his lengthy aside about the 12 Angry Men illustrates how our perceptions can often lead us awry. He's actually right, but using the M's as a foil was … misguided.
CCW on
August 11th, 2010 9:46 am
Exactly. It's a straw man. Very few people were predicting that the M's would be great, but that's exactly what Ponanski seems to be implying. Instead, folks projected a .500 team that, *if* things broke well, could win 90 games and compete for the division crown. And of course, if things didn't break well, the team had the potential to be bad. A lot of us were excited because, for the first time in years, the M's had a 25% of making the playoffs to begin the season. We were excited… but it was still long-shot, and pretty much everyone knew it.
Mike Snow on
August 11th, 2010 9:52 am
There was no unexpected good fortune to counterbalance the bad
Fister and Vargas have been better than expected. Now, within the rotation alone, Rowland-Smith and Snell negate the impact, so this doesn't even begin to balance all of the other problems, but there hasn't been a complete absence of positive developments.
Rayvensdad on
August 11th, 2010 10:17 am
So many people planned this team to compete for a division title this year, myself included, but there is a MAJOR difference between how Jack Z. has gone about his business compared to Bavasi. Bavasi tried the quick fix and sacrificed our future to do so. With the exception of the Morrow trade which I thought was absolutely horrible (especially since no one was consistent with Brandon M.), I feel that Jack Z. did an amazing job creating a competitive team this year AND rebuilding the farm club to have success later down the line. Jack started the season saying we are still #3 in the division until we prove different. So he took gambles that made sense… TO EVERYONE… which is why the M's were picked by many to win the division this year in the beginning. Watching the team as of late makes me wonder if the players just had no interest to compete for Wak and never had their heads on straight, which can explain such dismal personal stats for the season … though it is only 2 games since Wak's firing and that theory can't come close to holding any water. Though if somehow this team pulls off a 10+ game winning streak, then it would raise some interesting questions.
Fact is that this organization is fixing itself and at the same time trying to be competitive. They looked to be as such this year, but for whatever reason, the train fell off the tracks. BUT… our farm system wasn't sacrificed and that is why this will turn out better in the long run for this club. But they need to get a manager, and keep a manager, even in some tough times. Which is why I think there were some serious internal issues with Wak. There isn't a quick fix to this, and Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln need to stop pretending like there is. They need structure and time. Unless they want to start shelling out 175 million dollars a year in payroll.
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 10:29 am
Sorry Joe, but you're better than this.
1) Does anyone fact check Joe on a regular basis, or is it possible Joe is NOT better than this?
2) How many other blogs take Joe to task when he rips their predictions or their team or gores their OX?
3) Is this "Joe Rebuttal" overwrought because the criticism for failing to foresee (or at least allow for) the current team disaster falls on USSM just as much as it falls on the Mariners Front Office?
Just sayin…..
The_Waco_Kid on
August 11th, 2010 10:38 am
Right on, Dave. I'm tired of hearing so many people act in hindsight like this was obvious. Sure, we should have looked at the luck of last season and tempered our expectations a bit, but not that much. You do a great job articulating what happened this season. Jack Z made mostly reasonable gambles, but somehow none paid off.
Phillies Red on
August 11th, 2010 10:44 am
I'm not a usual contributor, so I hope folks don't mind if I offer my two cents.
I think Dave's close read of Joe's article is certainly accurate, but I'm not sure that Joe meant for those introductory, rhetorical remarks to be read as literal arguments. Instead, this list of "follies" is more about setting up the article, providing background, and getting some drama into the piece. Taken literally, it's lazy argumentation; read as a set up and introduction, its decent, though perhaps unfair, writing.
But the rub here is that I don't think we should let this part of the article distract from what is a rather compelling piece. As a non-Mariner fan, and an avid reader of Dave's, fangraphs, and other saber-oriented sites, I was totally psyched to see the Mariners play. They seemed like they were putting together an exciting, smartly built team, and taking the proper type of gambles to get them over the hump. I certainly believed that they would carry over some momentum from last year, and at worst be middle of the pack this year.
And so I agree that Joe is unfair when he says: "The Mariners did not have a smart off-season, not at all." But I think Joe has a great insight about the force of momentum, narrative really, impacts how fans, even objectively-oriented ones, think about teams. Posnanski overreaches with his conclusion, but he's right that we should continue to inject skepticism into even the most heart-warming baseball narratives. There were some red flags in the Mariners 2010 team, and I for one missed them because I was expecting an exciting, winning team (and even hoping Griffey might have one more great year in him).
Anyway, great site, and good conversation. Hope you folks don't mind I stopped by.
dw on
August 11th, 2010 10:53 am
Is this "Joe Rebuttal" overwrought because the criticism for failing to foresee (or at least allow for) the current team disaster falls on USSM just as much as it falls on the Mariners Front Office?
Um. You did see The ESPN The Magazine cover, right?
Oh, wait, you're referring to these statements:
With the Angels losing some important pieces and the Mariners wheeling and dealing to add Cliff Lee and taking a chance on Milton Bradley, the Mariners are really looking like the favorite in the AL West….
Even if the Mariners don't make the playoffs, Jack Zduriencik and Company turning an organization run on the basis of the thoughts of Buzzie's Other Idiot Son into a legitimate contender in a year is a mighty impressive achievement.
Yeah, guilty as charged… Baseball Think Factory!
What Dave said way back when is the projections look good, but there was a lot of variance there. How this got conflated to "MARINERS WILL WIN 100 AND THE WORLD SERIES HAHAHAHAHA" I don't really know, but dropping the onus on USSM for whatever out of control hype machine inflated the M's to a division champion is stupid.
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 10:59 am
They think that any prediction, if it turned out to be correct, was a good prediction, and that's nonsense.
I think one could take the other side of that argument:
Any prediction that failed to include the possibility of an outcome similar to current state of affairs was made with blinders on. After all, the art of prediction is to use all the resources at hand, and with few exceptions our present methods overweight past performance.
You see this time and time again here. He WAS, He DID, He HOLDS, – - – Always reference to past performance, with very little reference to the prospects of the future.
You can counter by saying there is no way so many players could be predicted to have a bad season ALL AT THE SAME TIME.
Yet the Mariners seem prove this theory wrong frequently enough.
We just has an article where Griffey was alleged to have poisoned the clubhouse. It included posts about how petulant he could be, how he left the Reds just prior to being shown the door. How all of this was known AHEAD of time.
Some mention was made early of the possibility of Bradley having another meltdown, but the effect of that never carried into predictions of team performance.
Human factors are hard to weigh. But SOME allowance must be made for the disruption factor especially when there is a clear history of it.
How many losses were cranked into the equation based strictly on the inevitable Bradly meltdown, and the effect of that on other team members? Was the event THAT unpredictable? Or was it simply hand waived away because hard numbers were not available? (not to single out Bradley here, the same could be said of Snell, Griffey, and a few other risky characters we have had over the years).
Any prediction system that ignores these situations misses its design criteria.
Any prediction that is proven right is, by definition, better than one that is proven horribly wrong.
Doing everything "By the book" and getting killed in the end over and over again calls for some modification of the book.
Squooshed on
August 11th, 2010 11:02 am
Perhaps I'm being optimistic, but I don't think either Dave or Joe are as far apart as they appear to be at first blush.
Even if the USSM, and several others, realistically appraised the M's chances of success, there certainly was a wave of enthusiasm about the Mariners in the offseason in the mainstream media and many people and M's fans did think the Mariners were the favorites to win the division (including Joe himself in February). However, some of those people may have been carried away and failed to fully appreciate the potential downside of the roster as constructed.
At the same time, it is clear that this season has become a worst case scenario run amok. The issues that appeared dubious (Griffey/Sweeney at DH, Johnson/Moore at catcher) turned out to be disasters. The educated risks (Bradley, Kotchman, Snell) blew up. The reasonably predictable complementary pieces (Figgins, Lopez, RRS) totally flopped.
So, while Joe is right that some people perhaps should have been more dubious about the M's chances this season, Dave is also right that a collapse of this proportion was not a realistic prediction either.
Dave on
August 11th, 2010 11:03 am
Any prediction that is proven right is, by definition, better than one that is proven horribly wrong.
As long as you believe this, you're going to have a hard time learning how baseball actually works. You're going to continually use post-hoc explanations for things in order to justify wrong ideas, which is exactly what the rest of your post does.
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 11:06 am
I wasn't referring to any of those statements, but thanks for putting words in my mouth!
And way to ignore my main point.
Gregory on
August 11th, 2010 11:09 am
According to the logic in Posnanski's article, players development must plateau in the early 20s and then start declining around 32. While the latter may be true, it upsets me that he mentions Gutierrez having mediocre offensive years before last year as a reason he would have another this year.
dw on
August 11th, 2010 11:11 am
PECOTA had Figgins pegged at a 9% chance for collapse. ZiPS had a 15% of him having a "poor" season.
The thing that's shocking about this Mariners isn't that they're not contending when everyone thought they would. It's that they're underperforming as a team at possibly historic levels.
The river is low because it hasn't rained, not because the dam upstream has its gates shut. There's also an economics metaphor in there, but then I'm treading into politics and that won't end well.
dw on
August 11th, 2010 11:16 am
I wasn't referring to any of those statements, but thanks for putting words in my mouth!
Yes, you were referring to those statements, because you're trying to hang USSM for making statements like that, when none of the writers here made no statements like that. There was optimism, but it was cautious and very qualified. Others took ZiPS and CHONE and immediately went all WORLD SERIES.
And way to ignore my main point.
I'm not ignoring your main point. I addressed it by pointing out you're out to shoot the wrong guy.
gcnmoo on
August 11th, 2010 11:18 am
I don't think this article is as far off as you say Dave. Many of the points are somewhat valid, the overall optimism for the Mariners this year was absolutely absurd. I wrote an article on this before the season that I couldn't believe all the hype the mariners were getting. The Mariners had one strong point coming into the season (defense). Their offense was gonna be one of the worst even if most of their players had played to their projected statistics. One of the major mistakes prognosticators made was implying the Mariners had a top notch bullpen. This could not be furthur from the case. Their bullpen overachieved big time last year and coming into the season I think their xFIP projections were right next to the royals as the worst in the league. League was the only pitcher in the bullpen that really had consistently thrown up low xFIPs for a few years. They had one healthy dominant starter in Felix. Yes, if Lee was healthy they'd have a dominant 1-2 starter duo, but the back end was the worst in baseball. Rowland-Smith, Snell, and Fister/Vargas as 3-5 is absolutely horrendous. I focused on this issue when I was talking about the overhyping of the Mariners. Rowland-Smith had awful numbers in the minors and was pitching WAY over his head last year. Vargas/Fister have never had great numbers either in the minors. Snell had been awful for a few years running and while I don't mind taking a stab at him I wouldn't have counted much out of him. The one thing they could count on (defense) is apt to the most variance from year to year and I knew they were in trouble even if their team suited their ballpark.
As far as the moves, he's talking about in the article, I think he overreacted to some moves based on this year's results. Bradley for Silva was a fine trade even if Bradley will likely never play more than 130-135 games. Signing Figgins I was neutral about as it seemed like a fair deal and I guess you need speed in that ballpark along with strong fielding. They signed Kotchman to be the #3 hitter and quickly realized that was a mistake 2 weeks into the season, that was a problem. Jack Wilson and the Catcher situation was going to be a problem all year. In the back of my mind, I have a feeling they were never playing for this year as some of these guys just appeared to be stopgaps for a year or 2 (kotchman, bradley, wilson). Yes, it was the perfect storm and the Mariners never should have expected to be this bad. However, personally I think the expectations were way to high coming into the season with the roster the way it was.
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 11:18 am
Did PECOTA include any allowance for Figgins moving to a new team, a new field position, with new coaches, where all the attention was heaped on a clearly washed up formerly great player who was sewing the seeds of discontent in the clubhouse?
Or was it based on his past years in a largely steady state environment.
Westside guy on
August 11th, 2010 11:27 am
I really like Posnanski, when I can take the 30 minutes required to read through one of his blog posts.
But yeah, this one bugged me when I first saw it. However (warning: about to damn with faint praise) at least he points out that a lot of Mariners severely underperformed this year. There are a whole bunch of writers that, upon seeing the Mariners implode, drew the conclusion "the high OBP approach doesn't work" and "it's apparent the team should've gone after a big bat". It's like they're analyzing the Mariners based on their press clippings from last winter. Apparently they aren't even looking at what the team is actually doing, or failing to do. As in, this team has been 29th or 30th in team OBP all year. As in, as maddening as Jose Lopez was last year, there's no way anyone could predict he'd do so much more poorly this year. They're completely ignoring everything Dave pointed out in this post, basically, about Figgins / Bradley / Kotchman / etc.
Heck, even Griffey underperformed his expected level – how bad is that?
ThundaPC on
August 11th, 2010 11:30 am
This is what I hate the most about this season.
The Mariners are 44-70, no where near contention, no where near where anyone (those who use rational analysis) thought they'd be. It's been an all-around disappointment.
But it's not the team that annoys me. The plug was pulled on the season with the Cliff Lee trade. It's outside people taking the opportunity to tee off on the Mariners and/or the Mariners organization that gets me.
Even people who claim to have seen this coming before the season started relied on two arguments:
- Last Year's Pythagorean Record
- There is no offense, all the run prevention in the world won't change the fact that you can't score runs!
The first point has nothing to do with analyzing how the 2010 Mariners would do. The second point is too ambiguous. Mariners have the fewest RS in the division (369) and they're in last place. The Padres have the fewest RS in the division (484) and they're in first place. The main difference between the two is run prevention (-121 vs. +101).
This doesn't include people who have taken the same route Posnanski has taken to analyzing this team. Basically, people pointing to all the under-performers and implying that they were bad roster decisions. I didn't think it was possible to spin the Bradley/Silva trade in a negative light but a number of folks have done it. The people who claim that letting Branyan go was a bad decision usually don't bother to understand the circumstances surrounding that issue.
It's pretty sad really. The idea behind the construction of the roster was pretty sound for the most part. But because the team collapsed and didn't live up to the overblown media hype people decide to dissect and criticize each move that went into it. And though hindsight no less.
I'm ready for this season to be over.
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 11:30 am
Yes, you were referring to those statements, because you're trying to hang USSM for making statements like that,
How could I POSSIBLY be referring to those statements, since I've NEVER read them? Ever!
I'm not trying to HANG USSM for making statements like that.
I simply asked if Dave's rebuttal was at least partially fueled by Dave's realization that Posnanski's shoe fit USSM's feet.
Again, I ask, does anybody routinely fact check Posnanski? Is he frequently this "wrong"? If he was talking about the Brewers, would Dave have noticed?
Stop trying to make this about me VS USSM. You've totally missed the point.
Naliamegod on
August 11th, 2010 11:39 am
Did PECOTA include any allowance for Figgins moving to a new team, a new field position, with new coaches, where all the attention was heaped on a clearly washed up formerly great player who was sewing the seeds of discontent in the clubhouse?
No because it is pointless – you can't count in something that you really can't predict. Furthermore, there are countless players who go through the same situation and do perfectly fine. I don't think Cliff Lee had any problems performance wise despite having much of the same problems as Figgins.
gwangung on
August 11th, 2010 11:44 am
Any prediction that is proven right is, by definition, better than one that is proven horribly wrong.
No. Absolutely not. You try that in any grad school doing research and you'd get tossed out on your ear.
And if we're restricting this to baseball, you better take a look at the qualifiers for those predictions. A prediction of "xx wins if these regulars have typical years" is STILL better than "this team sucks, they're gonna lose lose LOSE."
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 11:48 am
No because it is pointless – you can't count in something that
So, you're saying in effect, this has never been measured and since you found one case where it didn't happen, there is no point in running the numbers?
What happened to all the saber-metric objectivity all of a sudden?
Axtell on
August 11th, 2010 11:54 am
It's funny to see the so-called experts rushing to say 'we knew the mariners were going to be bad' then spinning numbers to suit their argument.
Naliamegod on
August 11th, 2010 12:00 pm
So, you're saying in effect, this has never been measured and since you found one case where it didn't happen, there is no point in running the numbers?
No there is no point because you can't "measure" it. There are no numbers that will tell you how well a guy performs based on how well he "knows" the area.
Liam on
August 11th, 2010 12:17 pm
Did anyone happen to notice the symmetry on
Ryan Rowland-Smith's Fangraphs page?
Start-IP: 96.1
Start-IP: 96.1
jsa on
August 11th, 2010 12:39 pm
No there is no point because you can't "measure" it.
Sure you can…
Run the numbers for every player that moves to a new team and compare their first year a the new team to their last two or three years at their prior team.
Players like Figgins, with an extensive history at one team may show significant change when moving to another team.
Off the top of your head you might expect free agents to be different than traded players.
But until you run the numbers you don't know.
It is "measurable" as a derivative of existing data.
Dave on
August 11th, 2010 12:41 pm
Do the work, let us know the results.
Until then, you're guessing.
diderot on
August 11th, 2010 12:41 pm
I would like to pay tribute to three excellent points made in comments above:
Dave mentioned in his pre-season preview that the M's had opted for a high-variance strategy this year. That is, they took a whole bunch of risks on players who might do well and might blow up. I posit that this was the correct strategy for the M's this year; it just didn't work.
Jack started the season saying we are still #3 in the division until we prove different. So he took gambles that made sense… TO EVERYONE…
Mariners have the fewest RS in the division (369) and they're in last place. The Padres have the fewest RS in the division (484) and they're in first place. The main difference between the two is run prevention (-121 vs. +101).
Klatz on
August 11th, 2010 1:00 pm
In many ways the article is a response to the significant hype going into the season. As unfair as it is there were a couple strong themes, market undervaluation of defense and Z's trading acumen, that made many commentators to predict the Ms as contenders.
The historic collapse of so many players was not predictable but it feeds unfortunately into a ha ha you're wrong sentimentality.
In retrospect, many of the moves were not that great.
The Morrow trade stands out as particularly bad. And the lack of offense additions in the offseason. Betting that Kotchman will at least be an average 1b, that Adam Moore would not struggle as a relative rookie, hoping that Bradley replicates his 2008 and not 2009 season, all looks like a bad bet overall. Individually, each single bet doesn't look too bad but basing a team on a slew of bets in retrospect appears to more wishful thinking than good roster contruction.
A lot of this is post-hoc hand wringing. But perhaps we were all little too optimistic.
MrZDevotee on
August 11th, 2010 1:10 pm
I wouldn't venture to call myself a die-hard Dave defender, but I specifically remember him being the Mariner enthusiast with the most reservations at the start of the season.
Lots of phrases about "a lot of things have to go right". I think just the idea that we had a high ceiling was exciting, since we hadn't felt that way in a longtime. And, it was mostly the rest of us who took the ball and ran with it (all the way to Cliff Lee winning game 7 of the World Series, in a 1-0 nail-biter– before signing a 5 year extension).
Was it reasonable? Probably not. But damn, it sure was fun to at least be able to imagine it. Though looking back, I don't think you can hang Dave with the same thick enthusiasm rope that we the commentors had.
It was kinda the same enthusiasm one gets when having the chance to take a half court shot for a million dollars. Looking back, it wasn't very likely, but in the moment you're thinking "holy shit, I could win $1 millon!"
My big fear, if media starts taking stabs at us like this, is that Jack Z and company throw out the pitching/defense baby with the "we-took-a-bath" water, and revert to the old ways of overspending for a bunch of slow, league average defense, fence swingers, to appease the fans. Which is tied to my bigger fear that Seattle fans don't have the patience to develop our own good-defense/good-speed/decent-power prospects over the next 4 to 5 years.
(fingers crossed)
dantheman on
August 11th, 2010 1:33 pm
I don't think you can justify penciling in Ian Snell as the number 3 starter (a disaster) by stating that you can't blame the starting rotation for how the season has gone. You can justify the signing of anyone, no matter how badly they perform, if you're just going to blame the team's poor performance on the other 24 players.
The Mariners did "let go" of Branyan. He wanted a multi-year deal and the Mariners wouldn't give it to him so they let him go. Maybe that was a good decision or maybe a bad one, but they did let Branyan go and that decision has nothing to do with whether it was a good idea to give Wilson (or anyone else) a multi-year contract. It's hardly inconsistent to say that one player should receive a multi-year contract and another player shouldn't.
The Morrow trade looks worse every day. Frankly, torching Morrow's self-confidence in the first week of the season last year was one of the worst managerial decisions I've seen.
Lastly, as I said before, the one constant to years of inconsistency and now 9 years of futility (100 losses again?!) is the duo of Armstrong and Lincoln. They've had so much and produced so little.
opiate82 on
August 11th, 2010 2:52 pm
I think when we (and by "we" I mean the people much more baseball-intelligent than me who run this blog) looked at the numbers and made the pre-season predictions they said we look like we could be around a .500 team. But the fan in all of us said "Hey! But if great things A, B, and C happen, we could compete for the division!"
Even though this is a stat-driven blog we are still fans and are still prone to biased, blind optimism. Who the hell wants to sit here in the offseason and hope our team preforms to its expected mediocre statistical average.
If you want to criticize us for having optimism and hope before a season began, fine. I am okay with being a fan first and a stat-head second. It's not like we didn't look at numbers and weren't aware of possible issues. What seemed like realistic predictions were made on this blog before the season.
But anyone saying that they saw these results coming better have a crystal ball, because there weren't any previously known facts that could have pointed to this disaster.
diggity doggity on
August 11th, 2010 3:30 pm
Mariners have the fewest RS in the division (369) and they're in last place. The Padres have the fewest RS in the division (484) and they're in first place. The main difference between the two is run prevention (-121 vs. +101).
Well…there is a big difference between being 20th in the majors in runs scored and being dead last. Also, the Padres being last in runs scored by a slight amount in the NL West helps explain why they are only 4 games over .500 against that division despite solid pitching and defense.
As for not being able to predict that Figgins wouldn't adjust well, he had about 90% of his ABs for the last 3 years as a leadoff guy and 909% of his games played as a 3B (those are rough stats, not exact). It certainly seems natural to wonder how anyone can project offensive or defensive success for a guy in 2 totally different roles than he had in the past. If he was hitting cleanup or playing catcher he would have a different profile, right? So the same idea applies here.
As for the comparison to Lee and how he has adjusted, last time I checked he was still a starting pitcher and still threw from the same mound. That's a bit different than telling him he will be a closer and he will throm from 40 feet away instead of 60 to the plate.
With all of this done, the only move I cannot rationalize away was taking on Snell and Wilson…they gave up nothing, but with budget crunches in place spending $10MM on those 2 guys was inexcusable to me. Fragile Jack and Headcase Ian were risks not worth taking- I said it then and I say it now.
Liam on
August 11th, 2010 3:43 pm
Frankie Gutierrez's 89 OPS+ is certainly down from last year … but his career OPS+ BEFORE last year was 88.
Russell Branyan's 114 OPS+ is certainly down from last year … but his career OPS+ BEFORE last year was 110.
Branyan doesn't resign: How could you let him go?
Branyan does resign: How could you miss the obvious?
The Ancient Mariner on
August 11th, 2010 4:07 pm
jsa: I simply asked if Dave's rebuttal was at least partially fueled by Dave's realization that Posnanski's shoe fit USSM's feet.
And dw simply answered you — twice — by pointing out that it doesn't.
dantheman on
August 11th, 2010 7:01 pm
"Even people who claim to have seen this coming before the season started relied on two arguments:
- Last Year's Pythagorean Record
- There is no offense, all the run prevention in the world won't change the fact that you can't score runs!
The first point has nothing to do with analyzing how the 2010 Mariners would do."
I seem to recall that Bill James, in an Abstract many years ago, expressed the view that a team that outperformed under the Pythagorean formula one year was very likely to regress the next.
Westside guy on
August 11th, 2010 9:14 pm
I seem to recall that Bill James, in an Abstract many years ago, expressed the view that a team that outperformed under the Pythagorean formula one year was very likely to regress the next.
Many years ago, when Bill James came up with the Pythagorean Expectation, it was cutting edge. That is no longer the case.
I'm not a heavy-duty baseball stat-head but, as in any other endeavor, what's state of the art when it first comes out almost always becomes quaint at some point. Even Newtonian Physics…
Note that I'm not saying either is wrong, per se, but that, over time, the shortcomings and limitations become better known.
littlesongs on
August 11th, 2010 9:25 pm
I usually love Joe Posnanski and this column surprised me too. After a reread, I got what he was saying, but I still think he is off base.
It will not keep me from enjoying more Joe in the future. The aforementioned Bill James was wrong about Dick Allen, and I forgave him too.
Jeff Nye on
August 12th, 2010 10:13 am
Bill James is a tricky subject.
Obviously in a lot of ways he is the father of sabermetrics. At the same time, being a pioneer inherently means that you will eventually get left behind, and that's basically where James is at now.
I have a ton of respect for him, but he isn't someone I look to for analysis anymore.
scottg02 on
August 12th, 2010 12:48 pm
I think the article was overall a good one. Your points are indeed valid Dave, but his position is that one view can be taken by someone and spread like wildfire is indeed what I believe happened with the preseason hype with the Mariners. Even with everything that has gone wrong, and certainly the Mariners could not have been predicted to be this bad, they were way overhyped going in.
dantheman on
August 13th, 2010 8:15 am
Strange how much of what Bill "left behind" James wrote still appears to be true. There may be advances and refinements to his theories but he is right far more often than he is wrong.
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Trail in the
"A nice winding out and back with the Sandia Mountains as a backdrop."
— Lee Brinckerhoff on Apr 6, 2013
|1.62.5 milesKilometers
|248'76 m Ascent
|6,647'2,026 m High
|4% Avg Grade (2°)
|Singletrack Type
|-53'-16 m Descent
|6,428'1,959 m Low
|11% Max Grade (6°)
Take a
Virtual Ride
DescriptionThis is the far northern end of the Foothills Trail #365, north of the junction with Trail 230.
As you head north from the "Rocky DH" or "Rock'n Roll" portion of Trail 230, the surface remains rough but not as steep. There is some climbing for the first bit with tight curves. Eventually the trail smoothes out and you get some flowy turns, though several are interrupted by large rocks entering or exiting the corners. There is one nice jump in the trail that is good either direction.
Soon the trail starts to climb up towards the lowest tower of the Sandia Peak Arial Tramway, billed as the longest arial tram in the world (it is worth riding). The main challenges on the climb are going to be the grade and weaving between closely spaced rocks. You finish the trail at a turn-around just in front of a large water tank that sits below the tramway tower. Turn around and ride back.
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2.3 from 3 votesThe water tank and tramway tower at the turn around. (Sandia Heights, NM)
2.0 from 3 votesThe tramway tower, Sandias and radio towers way up on the Sandia Crest. (Sandia Heights, NM)
2.0 from 3 votesThe trail split, behind you is south on Foothills Trail 365, while left ... (Sandia Heights, NM)
2.0 from 3 votesOnce the trail smooths out it is fast. (Sandia Heights, NM)

subset: commoncrawl


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Learning Center Search Results
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We will discuss probate basics and process, probate records and how to locate them.
Vital records overview and content, jurisdictions, and regional differences.
How to use Canadian census records and what their value is.The presentation will start two minutes after you click into the recording.
Using FranceGenWeb to Access French Records Online
In this lesson you will learn how to gain access to French church an civil records online by using FranceGenWeb.
What's Next?.. Immigration and Naturalization Records!
Learn with Jessie about what's next for indexing and arbitration, immigration and naturalization records!
Various types of chronological expressions in Jokbo and Jejeok records and how to calculate different expressions into chronological year in AD.
Zu welchem Kirchspiel gehört der Ort meiner Vorfahren?
Wie stelle ich fest, in welchem Kirchenbuch – meine Vorfahren (nach Ort) zu finden sind? How to find the correct parish (Protestant or Catholic) to which my German ancestor belonged?


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Yelp's stock is soaring in its stock market debut Friday. The shares are up 61 percent to $24.15 in the first minutes of trading, after pricing at $15 on Thursday night.
The online reviews site's initial public offering priced above its targeted range of $12 to $14 per share. That already suggested strong investor demand for a slice of the 8-year-old online reviews site, which has yet to turn a profit.
The offering nets Yelp about $96 million after expenses, the company estimates. It values Yelp at $900 million.
That's a lot for a company that hasn't turned a profit since its 2004 founding.


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Investigators in the field of water metabolism have generally taken it for granted that all the water in the body is fixed by the colloids and electrolytes in a firm combination and that changes in this colloid-water complex must be postulated to account for any variations in the tissue fluid concentrations. Fischer,1 indeed, postulated a "free" and "combined" water in the tissues, but the "free" water, according to his conception, seemed to be merely the superfluous fluid derived from metabolic processes or from ingestion which was promptly excreted.
During the course of studies of the so-called dehydration fevers in dogs it was noted that the diuresis produced by injections of equivalent amounts of glucose varied within wide limits and in many instances failed entirely.
These injections were made with the Woodyatt pump. Merck's "white granular glucose" was used. Balcar2 injected 36 per cent. glucose solution at the rate of 15
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Four-year-old boy's clumsiness leads to discovery of hidden recording device at Plano recreation center
But not for the clumsiness of a 4-year-old child, weeks or even months could have elapsed before the discovery of a hidden camera inside a Plano recreation center changing room.
Authorities say they believe the device was discovered within less than an hour of when it was installed at Oak Point Recreation Center because the child knocked it off the wall. Christopher Scott Furber, 43, now faces a charge of improper photography or visual recording, a state jail felony punishable by up to a year in jail.
According to court documents, a woman and her three children were inside a family changing stall on Nov. 18 as the woman's 10-year-old daughter changed out of her swim suit after competing in a swim meet.
The woman's 4-year-old son accidentally knocked off the wall what appeared to be an air freshener device, the records state. The mother, not knowing what the device was, left it on a desk at the recreation center.
A recreation center supervisor then discovered a recording device hidden inside the white plastic container. Video obtained from the device showed a man putting the device together in a vehicle and placing it in the changing stall. The device also captured the 10-year-old girl changing out of her swim suit.
On Dec. 2, Plano police released images from the device in hopes of identifying who put the camera in the changing stall. The next day, police received three tips identifying Furber as the man in the images.
Authorities arrested Furber on Monday. Police also seized a laptop, cameras, hard drives and other electronic equipment during a search of his Garland home, records state.


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Alliance for Surgery and Anesthesia (ASAP) Call for Abstracts
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Thursday, November 03, 2011
The New York Times Store has teamed up with select CFDA designers to celebrate "Fifty Photographs", an exhibit featuring iconic images from NYT legendary archive, which dates back to the late 1800s and features everything from iconic films to street style and architecture. Prabal was one of the designers asked to curate a selection of 10 captivating photographs. Prabal's selection represents moments in history that have left an indelible mark on our culture and the world. He was inspired by photographs that when displayed in pairs, not only complemented each other aesthetically, but also told a more rounded story. Starting today, the photographs are available at the New York Times Store, a percentage of sales from the collection will benefit the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA).
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Definición de unsocial en inglés:
1British (Of the hours of work of a job) falling outside the normal working day and thus socially inconvenient.
Oraciones de ejemplo
- Many social workers work unsocial hours and work incredibly hard.
- The defendant had put nearly £20,000, his life savings, into the post office believing he would ultimately become a partner but he worked long unsocial hours and was not rewarded.
- Furthermore, better unsocial hours patient care is surely likely when provided by dedicated night shift doctors instead of GPs dragged back out of bed after a day of surgeries and home visits?
2Causing annoyance and disapproval in others; antisocial: the unsocial behaviour of young teenagers
Más ejemplos en oraciones
- However they are adamant that they will not be 'unfairly imposed upon to accept further abuse through property damage, theft and general unsocial behaviour'.
- Deputy Sen O Fearghail, who also heads the Cill Dara Housing Association, said in the CYMS on Friday, that unsocial behaviour among tenants would not be tolerated.
- 'Gardaí have been called there on numerous occasions and there's a lot of unsocial behaviour going on,' he said.
3Not seeking the company of others: mountain goats are relatively unsocial
Más ejemplos en oraciones
- I like people, I'm just unsocial because of my hearing, not antisocial.
- Watching her 13-year-old daughter falter in her studies and become more and more unsocial has firmed Yang's decision to divorce.
- Through this isolation, people have become unsocial and full of apprehension about trusting or opening up to each other.
unsocially adverbio
- Oraciones de ejemplo
- Any unsocially aggressive men will have to answer to brothel security or the police, of course.
- Im not interested in the dumb, slobby, burger-eating, beer-drinking unsocially aware girls.
- Here is Marx the future socialist, unsocially shunning his school fellows while his mental acrobatics charm Ludwig von Westphalen, a much older man of a much higher social position.
For editors and proofreaders
Saltos de línea: un|social
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Events for March 28, 2014
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Brundage Mountain is celebrating our 24th Annual Winter Games competition with Slalom and GS races for competitors of all ages and abilities. Join us for this Idaho tradition – what a way to spend your Spring Break! Register here. The McCall Winter Sports Club invites all Age Class racers and Recreational League racers (YOB 2000-2008) to […] Find out more »
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Anyone who purchased a 2013/14 Multi-day Select Card will get a special privilege starting March 28. Normally, Select Cards can be redeemed for just one lift ticket per day. This year, Select Card holders can redeem as many of their remaining tickets as they would like any day from March 28 through the end of […] Find out more »


text: NEW DELHI: After consumer electronics and white goods, the brand blitz has engulfed the electrical fans industry with Crompton piping Orient to the top slot as the largest Indian fan manufacturer. The domestic electrical fans industry turned around in FY-02 after posting negative growth for two consecutive fiscal year. While production was up 6.8% exports soared by 26%. Crompton Greaves Ltd which has the Crompton brand, produced 1.9 million units in FY-02 compared to 1.7 million units produced by Orient Paper & Industries Ltd under the Orient brand. While Crompton turned around after a decline in production in FY-01 to post 20.2% growth, Orient's production declined for the third consecutive year. There has been some action at the lower ranks too. While Usha maintained its third position, Khaitan beat Polar to grab the fourth slot. The industry as a whole managed to turn around recording 6.8% growth with volumes shooting up from 7.95 million units to 8.49 million units. According to industry experts the one basic reason helping this turnaround has been the demand surge from middle class and common masses. Another positive factor has been the international demand. Domestic brands had undertaken massive export promotion drive last year to make up for the loss in domestic market and these efforts seem to have borne fruit. The industry topped the FY-01 figure of 23.3% exports growth in volume terms with 26% last year and now exports constitute about 13% of the total production. Looking at individual performance in exports, Bajaj Electricals posted a phenomenal growth of 262.5% to touch a volume of 1.74 lakh units just behind Orient and Usha as the largest exporter of electrical fans. In the way it went past Crompton, Khaitan and Polar. The domestic fan industry in which only about 35% of the market is being accounted by the organised sector has been facing the double whammy of a vast unorganised market and cheap Chinese imports. Some have even gone to the extent of outsourcing from China to compete on the pricing front. The industry has also been affected by the delay in implementation of VAT as many states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and West Bengal have imposed sales tax and other surcharges to raise revenues.


text:
- Posted June 26, 2014 by
- k3vsDad
Farmersburg, Indiana
This iReport is part of an assignment:
Sound off
Equality - Where I Stand
As court after court has struck down the ban on equality for long-term, same-gender couples as being unconstitutional, there are some who believe that my reporting the "news" is somehow my promoting an agenda and pushing "gay marriage".
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
I have made my position on the issue of equality known for a long time and stated it in at least two previous entries at FromTheCornfield.com. At other times I have simply reported on what the courts have ruled.
Here is what I have published in two previous years:
Same-gender relationships should be afforded the benefit of state blessing just as opposite-gender relationships now are.
There is no reason to complicate or not allow equality under the law with all the benefits and protections afforded opposite- gender couples over the use of a word on the state license.
Best option is that all state licenses use the term civil union on all state documents. Let the couples have a "marriage" privately within the framework of their religious institutions or according to their moral view.
All couples, whether same-gender or opposite-gender, should be afforded the same rights and benefits under the law when receiving a license to recognize the joining of the two individuals legally.
We must ensure that all our citizens are treated equally under the law. No one class or group of individuals or couples should be granted any rights and benefits not afforded to every other group of individuals and couples.
That is how I framed my position in two previous reports:
http://fromthecornfield.com/blog1.php/shaping-the-cornfield- perspective-where January 13, 2013
http://fromthecornfield.com/blog1.php/the-cornfield-political- platform-or September 2, 2012
To explain further my position, I believe religious sects be allowed to be the only institutions allowed to perform marriage ceremonies.
But, in keeping with the 1st Amendment, those ceremonies should be considered strictly as religious ceremonies and afforded no legal status in the civil arena.
In order for those wed within their place of worship to receive state recognition, a separate civil ceremony must be performed.
This would eliminate the debate over the words "marry" and "marriage". That terminology would be relegated as religious in nature and not civil.
The idea of separation of church and state would be upheld and at the same time allow accomodation to those of faith to have the blessing of the church while keeping state recognition as a strictly civil matter.
Of course, my idea is not going to fly.
The courts are already deciding and ruling in case after case that there is a "fundamental right" to marry in the Constitution without regard to the gender of the couples seeking state recognition.
I am not pushing for anything more than equal protection and recognition under the law. The wording is not of any relevance to me.
It should be noted that not all in Christendom hold the same view or interpretation of what the Bible has to say about same- gender couples. Some denominations such as the United Church of Christ, the Presbyterian Church (USA) and the Episcopal Church in the US of A are welcoming of same-gender couples and believe that under the New Testament, grace recognizes that God created us all as we are.
Those who do not believe that grace covers all have the right to that perspective and belief.
As for me and my house, we will serve the Lord in the Light as it has shone upon us.
From the Cornfield, those who oppose equality for same-gender, long-term couples have every right to believe and hold fast to their opposition.
At the same time, those of us who believe that all couples should be seen equally under the law also have every right to believe and hold fast to our conviction.


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View the original review at: http://www.countryweekly.com/reviews/country-cold-cans-dierks-bentley
Following the maturity of Up on the Ridge and Home, a full album of pop-a-top drinking songs may have felt like a step backward for Dierks Bentley. But thanks to the increasingly popular EP format, the every-dude singer/songwriter is able to scratch that itch on Country & Cold Cans.
A collection of four new tracks, along with the radio edit of current single "Tip It On Back," the digital-only release is refreshing and bubbly. Think of it as the sonic equivalent of light beer: it quenches the thirst, but doesn't leave you fully buzzed.
"Cold Cans" and "Grab a Beer" are good-natured elbow-benders, while "Back Porch" and "Summer on Fire" aim to squeeze out every last drop of the warm-weather season—and succeed.
None of those songs possess the lyrical snap of "Tip It On Back," which originally appeared on Home, but Country & Cold Cans is still an admirable pour, an easy-listening libation that won't leave you with a hangover.
[1] http://click.linksynergy.com/fs-bin/stat?id=tSGuKd/Fcvc&offerid=146261&type=3&subid=0&tmpid=1826&RD_PARM1=http%253A%252F%252Fitunes.apple.com%252Fus%252Falbum%252Fcountry-cold-cans-ep%252Fid548782363%253Fuo%253D4%2526partnerId%253D30
[2] http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008TMOH5U/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B008TMOH5U&linkCode=as2&tag=counweekmaga-20
[3] http://www.countryweekly.com/reviews/dustin-lynch
[4] http://www.countryweekly.com/reviews/good-guys-bucky-covington


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South Bay Recorder Society, a Chapter of the American Recorder Society, an
affiliate of the San Francisco Early Music Society, is an membership
organization that provides opportunities for members and others to play
recorders and socialize together.
The South Bay Recorder Society usually meets the first Friday of the month from 7:30 to 10 PM (September through May) at the First Congregational Church of San Jose, 1980 Hamilton Avenue, located at the corner of Leigh Ave. Music for each meeting is selected by a guest director. A variety of music is explored including medieval, renaissance, baroque and contemporary. Efforts are made to reach all levels of playing by including tips for playing the music presented. Opportunities for members to improve their recorder playing and general sum- musicianship are provided through the guest directors for the chapter meetings and a yearly day long workshop and other events. During the mer months we have play-in at members homes with no guest director. Some members play in individual consorts in their homes. SBRS encourages small groups to play at churches, libraries, schools and other venues in the South Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area. Membership dues are collected annually. A newsletter is distributed before each regular meeting. Usual attendance at meetings is 15 to 20 out of the total membership of 40.
For more info...E-mail: or call (408) 358-0878 Liz Brownell, President of the SBRS.
Midi created by Dale E. Victorine from a dance by Praetorius.


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PARKERSBURG -Sens. Jay Rockefeller and Joe Manchin, Democrats from West Virginia, say they're working on the funding to complete the Appalachian Development Highway System in the rural parts of West Virginia and other states.
The Senate is debating a surface transportation bill that will reduce funds for the highway system. An amendment from Rockefeller restores funding.
The remaining project to be completed in West Virginia is Corridor H, which goes east-west through Elkins. Corridor D through Parkersburg and Belpre, only completed several years ago, was among the projects in the highway system.
"After 47 years, I had hoped that the Appalachian Development Highway System would be complete by now, but there are still portions that need to be built. I believe that Congress should stand by that commitment," said Rockefeller.
Rockefeller cited job development, opening up markets, reducing transit times and safety improvements.
"Investments in infrastructure are one of the best ways we can work together to rebuild American and put Americans back to work," Manchin said. "When we dedicate funding to projects like the Appalachian Development Highway System, we are making investments that build our economy and strengthen this nation's future. These are more than just short-term jobs and projects; roads, highways and bridges lay the foundation for attracting businesses and residents to our region - that's why the completion of the Appalachian Development Highway System is so critical."
Fact Box
Other News From The Capitol
Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., is pushing legislation to expedite the commercial driver's license application process for armed forces members and veterans who drove heavy trucks during their military service.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan., have introduced the Financial Institutions Examination Fairness and Reform Act to fix regulatory problems that make it difficult for small businesses to get loans to expand and create more jobs.
Rep. David McKinley, R-W.Va., voted for House Bill 4105, of which he was among the original cosponsors, to overturn a ruling by a federal appellate court in December that found U.S. law forbids the Department of Commerce from applying countervailing duties to non-market economies. The legislation passed 370-39.
Rockefeller, Manchin and Rep. Nick Rahall, D-W.Va., have asked the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to implement policies to better regulate oil speculation as required by the Wall Street reform law passed in 2010.
Rahall, McKinley and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va., voted for the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act. The legislation passed 390-23 while several amendments to the legislation failed.
The beginning off the highway system was in 1965 with the creation of the Appalachian Regional Commission and is a 3,090-mile network in the states covered by the commission.


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Bananas Foster
- 1/2 stick butter
- 6 tablespoons brown sugar
- 4 bananas
- 1 tablespoon light rum
- 2 tablespoons brandy
- 8 scoops vanilla ice cream, for serving
Cook butter and sugar in a large skillet over medium heat until melted. Meanwhile, slice bananas in half lengthwise. Add to skillet and cook until bananas are tender, about 2 minutes. Carefully add rum and brandy and ignite. Spoon sauce gently over the bananas a few times and then serve immediately over vanilla ice cream.
Home Cook Recipe: A viewer or guest of the show, who may not be a professional cook, provided this recipe. The Food Network Kitchen have not tested this recipe and therefore cannot make representation as to the results.
Recipe courtesy of the UT Frat Boys


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Celebrating 30 years of providing fashionable comfort footwear and excellent service— Footwear etc. • Established 1986 —
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text:
Issue No.03 - March (2006 vol.55)
pp: 348-352
Michele Favalli , IEEE
DOI Bookmark: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/TC.2006.37
This paper analyzes the problem of timing related common mode failures in redundant systems. The specific case of duplex systems in the presence of delay faults is analyzed by providing a probabilistic characterization of undetectable errors. PDF simulation was used to evaluate the probability of undetectable errors in conventional duplex systems and in duplex systems making use of a simple kind of data diversity.
Online error detection, duplex systems, timing related failures.
Michele Favalli, "Diversity Analysis in the Presence of Delay Faults Affecting Duplex Systems", IEEE Transactions on Computers, vol.55, no. 3, pp. 348-352, March 2006, doi:10.1109/TC.2006.37


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The GRE General Test measures skills that have been developed over a long period of time and are not necessarily related to any particular field of study. The test is composed of Verbal Reasoning (V), Quantitative Reasoning (Q), and Analytical Writing (AW) sections. The General Test is offered as a computer-based test in the United States. General information about the GRE can be located on the GRE website.
Important Policy Updates
Cell phones, smart phones such as BlackBerry devices or iPhones, PDAs and other electronic and photographic devices are not permitted in the test center.
When you register, you must use the exact name and spelling of that name as shown on the primary I.D. that you will present at the testing location. If the name shown on your primary I.D. does not match the name on your registration record, you will not be permitted to test and a refund will not be issued. Be sure to provide your entire first and last name. Do not register under a nickname.
Only misspellings of your name can be corrected at the testing location – NAME CHANGES WILL NOT BE MADE. If your name has changed for any reason, including marriage, you still must present primary I.D. in the name under which you are registered, or you will not be permitted to test. Marriage certificates and divorce decrees cannot be used to confirm name differences. Please do not bring these documents to the testing location.
The Testing Center strongly recommends that examinees visit the GRE website to obtain the most current information regarding all testing policies and procedures.
Fees / Payment Method / Remittance Policy
Fees: $185.00 for computer-based testing in the U.S.
Please Note: Additional fees may apply.
Payment Method: Preferred forms of payment for the computer-based test include money order, certified check, voucher, or credit or debit card (including American Express, Discover, JCB, MasterCard, or Visa).
Remittance Policy: Payment is due at the time of registration.
If you have any questions regarding a payment method, please contact ETS at (866) 473-4373.
Registration Requirements
The GRE General Test is not administered at APSU. For information on the registration process, please visit "Register for the Test" on the GRE website. For computer-based testing in Clarksville, please call the PROMETRIC Testing Center on Forbes Avenue at (931) 647-2003.
Results / Score Reports / Transcripts
According to GRE Board policy, scores are reportable for 5 years following testing. Score reports are sent to the examinee and to the examinee-designated recipients 10 to 15 days after testing. Examinees can view their scores online approximately 15 days after testing. Examinees who take the computer-based GRE can view unofficial Verbal and Quantitative scores immediately following the test; however, because of the essay scoring process, examinees will not be able to view the Analytical Writing score. Examinees who take the paper-based GRE cannot view unofficial scores on the test day. Paper-based score reports will be sent to the examinee and to the examinee-designated recipients within 6 weeks after testing. For more information, please visit "Getting your Scores" on the GRE website.
Additional Score Reports must be requested from ETS. For details please visit the "Additional Score Reports" section on the GRE website.
Please contact ETS regarding cancellations.
Retest Information
Examinees can take the revised General Test (computer-based and/or paper-based) only once every 60 days, and no more than five times within any continuous rolling 12-month period. For more information, please refer to the "Retaking a Test Policy" in the online bulletin.
ETS has established policies regarding documentation of an applicant's disability and the process for requesting accommodations. For details, see "Test Takers with Disabilities" on the GRE website. Please contact ETS regarding all accommodation questions.
Additional Information
For information regarding test preparation, please visit "Prepare for the Test" on the GRE website. Workshops are also available on campus. For more information regarding GRE preparation workshops, see the Academic Support center website.


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Definition of stotin in English:
A former monetary unit of Slovenia, equal to one hundredth of a tolar.
Example sentences
- There are 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 5000, and 10000 tolar notes, as well as 50 stotin and 1, 2, and 5 tolar coins.
- The converted amount is rounded to the nearest cent or stotin; the converted amount that is exactly halfway between is rounded up.
- The Slovenian currency is the tolar, which is divided into the hundred stotins.
For editors and proofreaders
Syllabification: sto·tin
Definition of stotin in:
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text:
Do vegetarians give their pets meat?
QuestionWhat do vegetarians feed their pet dogs? Do they give them a vegetarian diet?
Hassan, Sunbury
Answer** Definitive **
Name: V
Qualification: I've got a cat!
Answer: I feed my cat cat food which contains meat. I don't eat meat for moral reasons, but if I don't feed my cat food with meat in it, then it won't get sufficient nutrition and would get ill. I've tried Quorn, but my cat didn't like it!


text:
It's not quite Halloween but it's already time to start thinking about the holidays.
I may not have my list for Santa ready, but here at UPS we've been planning our holiday logistics all year. We'll add 55,000 extra brown-suited Santa helpers to help deliver more packages this year than ever – more than half a billion!
And, Thursday, December 20 – which is just 51 days away – will be the busiest day in our history when we'll deliver more than 28 million packages – that's more than 300 packages every second of the day.
For many online shoppers, their journey begins at Sierra Trading Post. From outdoor gear, apparel and shoes, to home goods – the e-tailer relies on our holiday logistics to deliver thousands of those holiday orders.
And, if you don't like what Santa leaves under your tree – no problem. Returns are easy with a UPS return label included in every order. At Sierra Trading Post, customer satisfaction is 100% guaranteed.
Here's more how UPS and Sierra Trading Post are helping their customers have hassle-free holidays!
|Business Insights, Inside UPS, Logistics
|Christmas shipping, holiday, holiday shipping, holidays, logistics, peak, Sierra Trading Post


text: Here's what I've been working on. This (http://www.knitnstyle.com/projects/capsleeveraglan_jun05.shtml) is the pattern I started with, but I'm doing it top-down, in the round. It was quite a challenge to get the raglan right (and it's not perfect, but who would know the difference). Plus, I had to do the lace/cable repeat upside down and change it to in the round. But hey, I like a challenge and I love how it is turning out. The yarn is KP's Shine Sport.


text:
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It hasn't taken long for Cathedral City's Christian Wilson, a transfer guard from Baton Rouge, LA, to find his way in to the hearts of Lion fans... and school folklore for that matter. Wilson scored 30 on Tuesday night (a season low) to pace Cathedral City in a 111-24 pummeling vs. overmatched Desert Mirage. Wilson electrified the crowd when he took an alley-oop pass off the backboard and thundered the ball down.
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Current board member Amy Blanton and new members Deke Lape and Mike Marsh took their oaths of office for three-year terms. Outgoing board members Rick Adams and Ken Stone didn't seek re-election to the board so an election for R-6's school board was not needed.
Board President Scott Crumpecker thanked Adams and Stone for their service and gave each a personalized set of glass book ends.
"We've had a lot of long meetings, and we want to express gratitude for taking your time away from your careers and families to help serve on the board," Crumpecker told them.
Adams was on the board a total of 15 years, most recently serving consecutively from 2002-201l, while Stone served from 2008-2011.
For more pictures and stories from the Standard Democrat, click here to log on to the electronic edition.


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Centralized management and reporting for the sudoers policy file
Privilege Manager for Sudo, part of the Privileged Access Suite for Unix, enables centralized management for sudoer policy files. Easily generate reports on sudoer access rights and activities, and keystroke logging of activities performed through sudo. With Privilege Manager for Sudo plug-ins, your organization can take privileged account management through sudo to the next level across a number of Unix/Linux servers.
- Extend sudo – New capabilities allow your organization to extend sudo with plug-ins (central policy server and keystroke logging) that fit into the sudo modular framework.
- Central sudo policy – Improves your organization's security and eliminates your need to manage the deployment of subdoers on every system with a central service to administer sudo and sudo policy for privileged account management across a number of Unix/Linux servers.
- Centralized management – You can manage sudo using the Management Console for Unix, which provides a single point of administration for multiple Dell solutions to simplify administrator- and auditing-related activities across the entire Unix environment.
- Centralized reporting – Using the Management Console for Unix, your organization can centralize reporting on sudo with a single platform. The console enables you to track changes made to sudoers, including versioning, and reverting back to any previous version, allowing for a report that shows you who, what and when details regarding changes to the sudo policy file. It also lets you track who ran a specific sudo command across all managed systems, and whether it was accepted or rejected based on the policy. It gives you access and privilege reports that analyze the sudo configuration file, user accounts and group memberships, as well as a list of the access and privileges that have been granted to users and systems through sudo.
- No training required – Your users can draw upon their existing sudo knowledge with plug-ins that extend sudo's capabilities, thus avoiding training, realizing a faster time to value and minimizing calls to your help desk.
- Keystroke logging – Using the Privilege Manager for Sudo Keystroke Logging plug-in, you can track and log keystrokes of activities performed through sudo. The keystroke log gives you a comprehensive view of the activities performed and the commands that are executed across all systems. You can filter the report to help you quickly find the data you need.
- Separation of duty enforcement – Using the Management Console for Unix, you can enforce the concept of separation of duty (SoD). The console enables you to assign users to a role, and based on the role, only be allowed permissions to perform certain tasks.
- Sudo Offline Policy Cache – Provides your organization service continuity in the event of a network or server outage.
- Script compatibility – Ensures that your organization's existing script files that include embedded sudo commands are compatible, avoiding the possibility of run failure and the potentially huge costs to test and fix scripts across multiple Unix systems.
The Privilege Manager for Sudo plug-ins require sudo 1.8.1 or later and will run on the following systems that have sudo installed.
The Management Console for Unix is browser-agnostic (supporting Internet Explorer, Firefox or Safari) and can be run from any Windows, Mac, Unix or Linux workstation.
Operating System
Supported Version
Red Hat®
Enterprise Linux 5 (Intel x86/x86 64, PowerPC 32/64 bit, IBM zSeries)
CentOS 5 and 6 (Intel x86/x86 64)
16,17, and 18 (Intel x86/x86 64)
SUSE® Linux
OpenSUSE 10 and 11 (Intel x86/x86 64)
Debian GNU/Linux 6 (Intel x86/x86 64)
Oracle Linux
Oracle Linux 5 and 6 (Intel x86/x86 64)
Oracle VM
Oracle VM 2
XenServer 5.6 and 6.0
VMware ESX Server
vSphere (ESX 4.0 and 4.1)
Sun® Solaris
8, 9, 10, 11 11/11, and 11.1 (SPARC 32/64 bit / Intel x86/x86 64)
11.11, 11.23, 11.31 (PA-RISC 32/64 bit)
5.3, 6.1, and 7.1 (32/64 bit)
Mac OSX
OSX 10.7 and 10.8
White Papers
- IAM for the Real World: Privileged Account Management
- Privileged Password Sharing: the "Root" of All Evil
- Securely Managing Your Unix Environment
- Sudo is cool, but what if it could...?
- The 10 Universal Truths of Identity and Access Management
- The Importance of Managing Privileged Accounts
- Why you need to consider privileged access management (and what you may not know about it that you should)
Technical Briefs
- Extending and Enhancing Sudo with Quest One Privilege Manager for Sudo
- Hackers have an effective plan to get to your privileged accounts
- Why HIPAA Compliance is Impossible without Privileged Management
- Why ISO/IEC 27001 Compliance is Impossible without Privileged Management
- Why SOX Compliance is Impossible without Privileged Management
On-Demand Webcasts
- On-demand webcast: Ignoring the problems with privileged passwords just won't cut it
- Privileged Management: Focusing on Activities, Not Just Access
- People are not the only security risk. Discover the "non-human" threat.
- Getting Control of Linux/Unix with Sudo and AD Integration
- 10 Ways to Protect Against a Security Breach Incident on Your Network
- A UNIX/Linux/Mac Security Primer: Accounts, Delegation, Integration, Reporting
- Answers to Common Privileged Account Management Challenges
- Controlling Privileged Account Access
Support Docs, Notes and Guides
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo access report
This report untangles the sudoers policy file by providing a simple-to-read report on what sudo privileges users have on what systems including an examination of aliases and group memberships.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo editor
Quickly and easily edit the sudoers policy.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo editor version
Easily view the different sudoers policy versions, when they were changed and who changed them, along with any comments.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo events 2
View all commands executed based on host and user with optional replay of keystroke logging.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo events 3
Search event logs based on user, host, time, policy group and even keywords.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo keystroke replay
Replay session logs down to the keystroke level (optional).
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo local user events
See a bird's-eye view of all your Unix accounts, manage them, and quickly search on any account for its sudo activities across multiple systems.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo readiness check
Check basic network conditions, connection to the policy server, support for offline policy cache and the current sudo installation.
Privilege Manager for Sudo - Sudo version report
See a detailed view of all sudo policy changes.


text: Tucked away in Scott's Addition, our Summit Avenue location is the headquarters of our roasting operation, as well as our cupping and training lab. We also have a beautiful coffee bar serving espresso, pour overs and various other brew methods. You'll find an extensive selection of coffee beans to choose from as well as house-made pastries, bagels, parfaits and other light fare. Free public cuppings are held on the first Sunday of every month at 2pm. Join us for coffee tasting and conversation!


text:
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