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20% Wind Energy by 2030
Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to
U.S. Electricity Supply
DOE/GO-102008-2567 • May 2008
More information is available on the web at:
May 2008
..2 Indirect Impacts............................. 24 2..........1 Introduction and Collaborative Approach.......1............................................3 Scope.. Wind Industry .................................... and Performance Monitoring .... 4 Setting the Context: Today's U..........................2 1................................5................. 44 2.........3 Technology Improvements on the Horizon ...................................... 5 Wind Geography ........................................... 7 Wind Power Transmission and Integration..............................2.................................................................1 Direct Impacts .....................4 1.............5 Offshore Wind Technology ................................................. 24 Today's Modern Wind Turbine ...........................Table of Contents Acronyms ..........................2................................................................ Wind Turbine Technology.... 48 2....................3....................1 1..................... 20 Chapter 2.....3.......2 2..........3..........2 1........... 46 2................................ 39 The System Benefits of Advanced Technology. 11 Pace of New Wind Installations...2 Scenario Description.... 10 Electrical Energy Mix .....................1....1 2........................ 49 Current Technology .............................5...............5 References and Other Suggested Reading.........................3............4 2............................................................................................ 3 Report Structure ............2..... 43 2.................................. 1 1...........................2 2......................3 2.................................................. 12 Impacts............................................. 18 1...............................................................2..........................S.. 7 1............. 35 Learning-Curve Effect ...........1................................. 23 2...................................1.....................1............................1 1............ 17 Cost of the 20% Wind Scenario ................................................................................... 20 1..............................1 Introduction.......3.. 43 2........1 2........... 34 2.................... 40 Targeted RD&D .........................3................. 30 Future Improvements to Turbine Components ......... 15 Energy Security and Stability...........................................................................5 2................................2 Today's Commercial Wind Technology .................................................2..........................................23 2...............................................1 2...4 1...........................2 1........2.............................. Executive Summary & Overview ......................3 2................4 Greenhouse Gas Reductions ...............2.........................................................3 Risk Mitigation Through Certification... 3 Assumptions and Process..4 Wind Resources ...........2.............. 28 Current Turbine Size ...................... 26 Wind Technology Development . Validation...................................3 1..........................6 2..................................................................... 13 1...........2...... 29 Current Status of Turbine Components.2..5 1...........................3 1.................................... 13 Water Conservation.........................4.1 1....................................................2 Cost of Energy .................. 49 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version i ......................................................1 1........3 1.........3.................................................................................3.......... 42 Addressing Technical and Financial Risks.................... 25 Wind Plant Performance and Price ..........x Chapter 1...4 2...........................................4.....................4.........................4 Conclusion ........... 2 Contributors ....
.........1..3...........................1 Lessons Learned.. 100 4......... 90 4..................86 4....................55 2..................................................... 95 4..........1 Expanding Market Flexibility .........................................................2........................4 Challenges to 20% Wind Energy by 2030 ...............50 2.................. Transmission and Integration into the U....... 92 4...1.... 64 3....6 Integrating an Energy Resource in a Capacity World .......4 Wind Forecasting Enhances System Operation ..............1........................... 93 4....................................................6...........86 4................................2 Power System Studies Conclude that 20% Wind Energy Penetration Can Be Reliably Accommodated.........93 4....3 U...................................11 Changing Load Patterns Can Complement Wind Generation........................... 72 3........... Electric System....3 Making a National Investment in Transmission...1 Raw Materials Requirements .............................1 Challenges ......................69 3........1...................................................87 4................................. Dispatchable Generators Facilitate Wind Integration .2 Feasibility and Cost of the New Transmission Infrastructure Required For the 20% Wind Scenario ............S..................................2................2 Enhancing Wind Forecasting and System Flexibility ...9 Large Balancing Areas Reduce Impacts .................................................................................. 66 3....... 100 4....... Material and Resources ...................... 54 2.....2 Technology Trends......3..83 4....................100 ii 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .....................................7 Aggregation Reduces Variability ..............1 A New Transmission Superhighway System Would Be Required ..8 Geographic Dispersion Reduces Operational Impacts .....91 4..............1.. Power System Operations and Market Structure Evolution....................... 73 Chapter 4...1...........1 Wind Penetration Experiences and Studies. 100 4..... 75 4......3..........................................................4.... 89 4................8 References and Other Suggested Reading.................................................... 76 4..................................10 Balancing Markets Ease Wind Integration........ 70 3............6 Distributed Wind Technology ............... 72 3....................1.................. 61 3...............................1 Maintaining and Expanding Relevant Technical Strength..............................6.....................2.... 62 3.......................3 Technology Needs and Potential Improvements...........S...5 References and Other Suggested Reading...........................................1..........2.....77 4........2 Ramping Up Energy Industries .... 58 Chapter 3...............................7 Summary of Wind Technology Development Needs ..98 4......2 Manufacturing Capability ..................2..2..........................1 Current Manufacturing Facilities ............1....... 56 2...........................1 Small Turbine Technology......5 Flexible...1.. 54 2..................5.......................3 Wind Turbine Technology Advancements Improve System Integration ....... Manufacturing..........3 Labor Requirements.....................2 Overcoming Barriers to Transmission Investment............................................70 3......................... 76 4...........................................1.......................
.............. 106 Environmental Benefits ... and Emissions Markets ....................................................................................3 Potential Environmental Impacts.......................... 139 Native American Wind Projects......3................................105 5......................................................8 Findings and Conclusions . 136 Compliance..... 134 6................................................................................ 135 Power Marketing Administrations ........1 Wind Energy Today.................................7 Prospects for Offshore Wind Energy Projects in the United States and Insights from Europe ....................................2 6..................................5.............. 124 5........ Voluntary..........1 Habitat Disturbance and Land Use ........1 5..........2..... Wind Power Markets ............................. 108 Saving Water.......1 U.............................................1 Local.. 118 5...........3 6.. 121 5......................................................................1 5......................................... 107 5....................................................6............ 126 5..................................................................... 123 5.............................................. 110 5................................. 116 Visual Impacts..................2 5................................................................................................. 111 5.................. Electricity Market....... 128 Chapter 6...........................4 Electric Utilities ........3 5......................................3 Managing Environmental Risk and Adaptive Management Principles................... 105 5... 119 5.......4..............4 Public Perception and Engagement ......................3 Global Climate Change and Carbon Reductions.... 118 5..........................................3. 110 5.............3.....2................................................................................................................................5 Large-Scale Wind Power Plants........................S..............6. 116 5.................4 6.........2 5...................................2............3......2 Site-Specific and Cumulative Concerns......................................3............S...........133 6..................... 123 Coordinate Land-Use Planning ....................3 6......................... 136 6.......1 5......9 References and Suggested Further Reading.................................................2 Wildlife Risks ...........3........... 138 Offshore Wind............2 6...3............................. 119 5............................................................ 137 6............................1 5............ 139 Small Wind ..............6 Addressing Environmental and Siting Challenges ............5...........................2.......... 138 Community Wind..................................1 6................................2 U.............3 Expand Public-Private Partnerships .................................................................................. 109 5..........2...................2..4 References and Other Suggested Reading................2.......3 Wind Power Applications...............2 5..............................................1...... Market Evolution Background................4.................... 140 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version iii .............. 101 Chapter 5..............4.......2 State and Federal ..............4......6.......... 107 Improving Human Health through Reduced Air Emissions .......... Wind Power Siting and Environmental Effects . 117 Land Value......... 116 Sound ................................................................5 Siting/Regulatory Framework ...3........................................ 133 6............................. 135 Federal Agencies.................... 121 Expand Outreach and Education ..............1 6............. 114 5..................4 Public Attitudes..............................4........
..........................................4.................. 187 B........................................................................6............................1 B.......................................................................................... 155 Transmission .......... 175 B.......................186 Fuel Prices..........1 Introduction ..................................................7....................192 State Renewable Portfolio Standards .............................................2 Methodology.......4........................1 A..........................3.......................................7 Federal and State Energy Policy ...................154 Reduced Natural Gas Demand ............................... 140 6..........................175 Wind Resource Data .... 189 B.......2 A..........................7 References & Suggested Further Reading .................5 Generation Mix ..........174 Capacity Requirements .......2 B.................................................3 B...................................2 Power System Characteristics ................ 161 A................5 Transmission .................4....... 149 A........7...... 169 B.....176 WinDS Seasonal and Diurnal Capacity Factor Calculations ..6 Other Effects .......................5 Conclusions......155 Land Use ..........191 Federal Energy Incentives................................................2 B...................... 152 Carbon Emission Reduction........................ 164 A.. 191 B.........................................6 References........2................1 A.........3 Wind Capacity Supply Curves .4 iv Federal Emission Standards ........................................................ 142 Appendix A...3 B.......................... 151 A........................ 141 6........................4... 170 B............................................................................................4 A.......................................................................1 Water Consumption Savings...............2 Conventional Generation Cost and Performance .........................5......1 B. 143 A..........4..............2 A....................... 143 A... 146 A............................................. 183 B..3 Wind.......................................................3 Energy Generation Technologies....................................193 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .5 Direct Electricity Sector Cost ............3..2........4 Stakeholder Involvement and Public Engagement..............2....1 B...............................4.............................................................................7........2....................................... 181 B............................................................................3 B........... 172 Growth Rate .....2..........4 Wind Resource Definition................................................................................... 20% Wind Scenario Impacts..................................... Assumptions Used for Wind Deployment System Model..........................2.1 B......................... 192 State Energy Incentives..................................4 Conventional Generation ....................146 Transmission and Integration..174 B..6 Treatment of Resource Variability ................... 166 A....3.................148 Quantification of Impacts....4 WinDS Regions............................................................... 167 Appendix B...179 Wind Technology Cost and Performance .....................................................................................................................2 B............................................4 Impacts .......................................................................................158 A...............................186 B..........149 A............................................................4.1 Financial Parameters ......2........... 169 B... 170 Electric System Loads................7................................3..................................3 A.........................................................................................................................................
......19 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version v ............... 210 Appendix D....................................................................................... Cumulative U.............................1 C.... transmission by 2030........................................S.....211 Appendix E....................... 201 C.........................198 C....................................................... 199 Caveats......................7 Figure 1-4.........................................................................................12 Figure 1-10.......................................S...................... All new electrical generation including wind energy would require expansion of U.........................................9 References & Suggested Further Reading..............................17 Figure 1-15.. 207 C..S..................7 Conclusion ...........4 Figure 1-2........ capacity (GW) to implement the 20% Wind Scenario.................................................. electrical energy mix ........... Participants in the 20% Wind Scenario........................8 Electricity Sector Direct Cost Calculation............................ Glossary ......... Annual and cumulative wind installations by 2030 ....................... Wind-Related Jobs and Economic Development ................................................ by year ............. Annual CO2 emissions avoided (vertical bars) would reach 825 million tons by 2030...5 Construction Sector ........... Required growth in U.............8 Figure 1-5........... 202 C......................16 Figure 1-14......................................................... a difference of 2% ...3 Findings ............................... Avoided emissions would nearly level projected growth in CO2 emissions from the electricity sector ........................................................................................................................................... Conceptual transmission plan to accommodate 400 GW of wind energy (AEP 2007)........................B.......S......................... Supply curve for wind energy—energy costs including connection to 10% of existing transmission grid capacity ......................................................219 List of Figures Figure 1-1...............................................................8 Figure 1-6.....1............ 208 C......................................................................1...............................2 Model Description ..6 Operations Sector ................5 Figure 1-3.............. 203 C... 194 B.................. Supply curve for wind energy—current bus-bar energy costs .............................1 The JEDI Model............................8 References..... Report chapters................... 20% Cumulative installed wind power capacity required to produce 20% of projected electricity by 2030.......4 Manufacturing Sector............ 195 Appendix C................................ 206 C. 46 States would have substantial wind development by 2030 ... wind capacity....... U....................14 Figure 1-12............ 199 C...........16 Figure 1-13...... Incremental investment cost of 20% wind is modest..........10 Figure 1-8...................................12 Figure 1-11........... 210 C... National water savings from the 20% Wind Scenario.........11 Figure 1-9............................9 Figure 1-7........2 Wind Scenario Inputs......
................ Annual transmission investments from 1975 through 1999 and projections through 2005........96 vi 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version ..40 Figure 2-14.................85 Figure 4-8........................ The development path and growth of wind turbines ...........................27 Figure 2-6........... Impact of wind on load-following requirements ..................... a.......44 Figure 2-15...84 Figure 4-7....................................... Types of repairs on wind turbines from 2.....................................26 Figure 2-4.. and 100 m for Indiana .... A modern 1.................................................. b....S.................................................... Turbine capacity factor by commercial operation date (COD) using 2006 data......................... Hourly load shapes with and without wind generation ............................... and risk of failure with wind plant age..................... Annual installed wind energy capacity to meet 20% of energy demand......... 70 m....... GE turbine frequency response ................................................................................................................. Conceptual new transmission line scenario by WinDS region............................................ GE wind plant controls....47 Figure 2-17...............79 Figure 4-2............39 Figure 2-13....................67 Figure 3-4.. Cumulative installed wind energy capacity to meet 20% of energy demand......Figure 2-1..........................80 Figure 4-3...............72 Figure 4-1................................................................... Comparison of the wind energy resource at 50 m...................................................................... Curvature-based twist coupling........36 Figure 2-11....... likely sources................................57 Figure 3-1........................91 Figure 4-9................. blade test facilities................................................................................ Unplanned repair cost................5-MW wind turbine installed in a wind power plant.............................................................. Vestas wind turbine control capability ....................................................30 Figure 2-8................................................. Twist-flap coupled blade design (material-based twist coupling)................. Clipper Windpower multiple-drive-path gearbox ..................94 Figure 4-10..5 MW .36 Figure 2-12...65 Figure 3-2...........24 Figure 2-2........... Blade growth and startup dates for U.. Wind energy price by commercial operation date (COD) using 2006 data.. Impact of wind generation on system dynamic performance..... Cost of wind turbines delivered from Spain between 1984 and 2000..........66 Figure 3-3.............................................. ........83 Figure 4-5.. Percentage of 22-year-olds with a bachelor degree in science and engineering through 2050.. Annual hourly capacity factor .5 kW to 1....81 Figure 4-4.............25 Figure 2-3........................................29 Figure 2-7.......... Typical power output versus wind speed curve ........ Average O&M costs of wind farms in the United States ....34 Figure 2-10......................................45 Figure 2-16..... Annual and cumulative installed wind energy capacity represented in the 20% Wind Scenario . Operation and maintenance costs for large-scale wind plants installed within the last 10 years for the early years of operation (Wiser and Bolinger 2007).........32 Figure 2-9........ The wind resource potential at 50 m above ground on land and offshore.84 Figure 4-6............. Growth in blade weight ............................................................. Time scales for grid operations ..........................27 Figure 2-5............................ Examples of manufacturers supplying wind equipment across the United States................
................170 Figure B-2................. and Blair (2006) and corresponding annual wind capacity installation for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model................. U..................................145 Figure A-2....................................156 Figure A-11..................... Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2030.............. Cumulative installed wind power capacity required to produce 20% of projected electricity by 2030 .......158 Figure A-14..126 Figure 6-1.......................... Projected wind capacity installations in 2024 ............150 Figure A-3............................................187 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version vii ................ Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2012.....153 Figure A-7. Linear decision strategy (command and control) and interactive model with adaptive management principles ...115 Figure 5-4......................................................................................154 Figure A-9.................................................. Prescribed annual wind technology generation as a percent of national electricity demand from Laxson................ WinDS regions ............... Hand..........152 Figure A-6.......157 Figure A-12...173 Figure B-4............. Projected wind capacity installations in 2018 ................... Generation by technology in 2030 ............... Supply curve for wind energy: energy costs including connection to 10% of existing transmission grid capacity ...........157 Figure A-13.......153 Figure A-8. Capacity by technology in 2030.................................. wind energy capacity growth (shown in megawatts [MW]) slowed during years when the PTC expired ...........160 Figure A-18. 20% Wind Scenario electricity generation mix 2000–2030......... Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2024.....117 Figure 5-5..........151 Figure A-5.... Cumulative savings versus total transmission cost for renewable energy zone (worst case)............................160 Figure A-17.97 Figure 5-1................ Actions to support 20% wind energy by 2030 ..........................................151 Figure A-4........... Wind region and Balancing Areas in WinDS base case............... Projected wind capacity installations in 2012 ........................................... Direct electricity sector costs for 20% Wind Scenario and no new-Wind Scenario ...159 Figure A-15..............................108 Figure 5-2...166 Figure B-1............................................... Supply curve for wind energy—current bus-bar energy costs .............. Electricity production is responsible for 39% of CO2 emissions in the United States ............112 Figure 5-3..159 Figure A-16..................................................... Anthropogenic causes of bird mortality .......................................... Projected coal and natural gas prices in WinDS to 2030.........163 Figure A-19....... Fuel usage and savings resulting from 20% Wind Scenario .................................155 Figure A-10.............................................................................S...................... Decibel levels of various situations................. National load duration curve for base year in WinDS.......... Cumulative carbon emission reductions attributed to wind energy (compared to expanding the generation mix without wind energy) .. Projected wind capacity installations in 2030 ................................... Annual water consumption savings due to deployment of wind energy. Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2018..................Figure 4-11................134 Figure A-1..........172 Figure B-3.................................
..................................199 Figure C-2............................. Prescribed annual wind technology generation as a percentage of national electricity demand from Laxson....................208 Figure C-8............................... Distance between wind sites and correlation with power output............................................................................... Total economic impacts of 20% Wind Energy by 2030 on a relative basis . Direct manufacturing..................41 Table 3-1.......................... Midwest ISO plant capacity factor by fuel type (June 2005–May 2006)................................................. Wind integration costs in the U........................................ Wind generation variability as a function of the number of generators and time interval .................................. Assumptions used for scenario analysis ..................... indirect............................... Distribution of wind capacity on existing and new transmission lines ........89 Table 4-4..... and Blair (2006) and corresponding annual wind capacity installation for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model........ wind turbine component manufacturers ................. Main components and materials used in a wind turbine (%)..207 Figure C-6........................ Annual direct........ Water consumption rates for power plants ...161 Table A-3..............66 Table 3-4................................................... Estimated avian fatalities per megawatt per year ................ indirect and induced economic impacts from 20% scenario ..........................................................................63 Table 3-3...............147 Table A-2................................................................... Direct electricity sector costs for 20% Wind Scenario and no new-Wind Scenario (US$2006) ...............162 Table A-4.................................209 List of Tables Table 2-1.S........................ and induced categories...........S.... Status of offshore wind energy applications in state and federal waters .............S. U...63 Table 3-2.190 Figure C-1................................ excluding certain benefits (US$2006) ................ Manufacturing firms with technical potential to enter wind turbine component market..............................................110 Table 5-2..S.........................201 Figure C-3................... and operations jobs supported by the 20% Wind Scenario ...206 Figure C-5............................163 Table A-5....................................... Potential manufacturing jobs created by 2030...................205 Figure C-4........................ ............. Estimated water savings from wind energy in the interior West (2003) ....71 Table 4-1....... Jobs per year from direct........ Jobs and economic impacts by NERC region...88 Table 4-3........125 Table A-1...... Toyota North America vehicle production and sales........................................................... Locations of U..68 Table 3-5...................82 Table 4-2... Hand. Wind technology-related educational programs around the United States today .......Figure B-5....... construction......................................... Yearly raw materials estimate (thousands of metric tons)..........208 Figure C-7..............165 viii 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version ... Incremental direct cost of achieving 20% wind..113 Table 5-3.. Wind's economic ripple effect ...... .......................... Methods to estimate wind capacity value in the U...............................70 Table 3-6............90 Table 5-1........ Areas of potential technology improvement.
.......181 Table B-11............ U..........166 Table B-1..... Data sources for the offshore wind resource and environmental exclusions. U...........................................................................................................................203 Table C-3........193 Table B-17.................................................. operations-related economic impacts from 20% wind. Federal renewable energy incentives ..............177 Table B-9.... Wind plant expenditure data summary (in millions) ...............................169 Table B-2................................185 Table B-14...................... Land-based wind technology cost and performance projections (US$2006) ...................S..................................178 Table B-10.... General assumptions for conventional generation technologies........................................ U...................S...............................202 Table C-2............182 Table B-12............................ State RPS requirements as of August 2005 ..174 Table B-5...... JEDI wind modeling assumptions . State renewable energy incentives ..192 Table B-15............ states by region .................... Base load and load growth in the WinDS scenario......................... Classes of wind power density.........S......B-184 Table B-13............... Baseline financial assumptions ............................................175 Table B-7..173 Table B-4................204 Table C-4........ National capacity requirements in the WinDS base case......................................... Peak reserve margin......................175 Table B-8.................................. NERC regions used in WinDS.............. WinDS demand time-slice definitions ................175 Table B-6.............................. Shallow offshore wind technology cost and performance projections (US$2006) ....171 Table B-3... Cost and performance characteristics for conventional generation (US$2006) ............................................... National SO2 emission limit schedule in WinDS... Data sources for land-based wind resource and environmental exclusions.................................................. construction-related economic impacts from 20% wind...............................................................192 Table B-16.................................................193 Table C-1................................Table A-6.....204 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version ix .............
Department of Interior distributed wind technology 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S. Department of Defense U.Abbreviations and Acronyms x ACE AEO AEP AGATE AGC ALA AMA API APPA ATTU AWEA AWST area control error Annual Energy Outlook American Electric Power Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments automatic generation control American Lung Association American Medical Association American Petroleum Institute American Public Power Association Annual Turbine Technology Update American Wind Energy Association AWS Truewind BACI Berkeley Lab BLM BPA BSH BTM Btu BWEC before-and-after-control impact Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Bureau of Land Management Bonneville Power Administration Bundesamt für Seeschiffahrt und Hydrographie BTM Consult ApS British thermal unit Bat and Wind Energy Cooperative CAA CAIR CAISO CAMR CapX 2020 CBO CDEAC CEC CEQA CESA CF CFRP CNV CO2 Coal-IGCC Coal-new COD COE CREZ CT Clean Air Act Clean Air Interstate Rule California Independent System Operator Clean Air Mercury Rule Capacity Expansion Plan for 2020 Congressional Budget Office Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee California Energy Commission California Environmental Quality Act Clean Energy States Alliance capacity factor carbon filament-reinforced plastic California/Nevada carbon dioxide integrated gasification combined cycle coal plants new pulverized coal plants commercial operation date cost of energy Competitive Renewable Energy Zones combustion turbine dB DEA DEIS DOD DOE DOI DWT decibels Danish Energy Authority draft environmental impact statement U. Department of Energy U.S.S.
S. Environmental Protection Agency Energy Policy Act engineering. European Wind Energy Association FAA FACTS FEIR FERC FL FRCC FTE Federal Aviation Administration flexible AC transmission system final environmental impact report Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Florida Florida Reliability Coordinating Council full-time equivalent GaAs Gas-CC Gas-CT GE GHG GIS GRP GS3C GVW GW GWh gallium arsenide combined cycle natural gas plants gas combustion turbine General Electric International greenhouse gas geographic information system glass fiber-reinforced-plastic Grassland/Shrub-Steppe Species Collaborative gross vehicle weight gigawatt gigawatt-hour Hg HSIL HVDC Hz mercury high-surge impedance-loading (transmission line) high-voltage direct current hertz IEA IEC IEEE IGCC IOU IPCC IRP ISET I nternational Energy Agency International Electrotechnical Commission Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers integrated gasification combined cycle investor-owned utility Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change integrated resource planning Institute for Solar Energy Technology (Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik) independent system operator ISO 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version xi . and construction Electric Power Research Institute Electric Reliability Council of Texas Electric Reliability Organization European Union Energy Unlimited Inc. procurement.ECAR EEI EERE EFTA EIA EIR EIS ELCC EPA EPAct EPC EPRI ERCOT ERO EU EUI EWEA East Central Area Reliability Coordinating Agreement Edison Electric Institute Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy European Free Trade Agreement Energy Information Administration environmental impact review environmental impact statement effective load-carrying capability U.
xii ISO-NE ITC ISO New England investment tax credit JEDI Jobs and Economic Development Impact (model) kg km2 kV kW kWh kilogram square kilometers kilovolt kilowatt kilowatt-hour lb LC LDC LIDAR LLC LNG LOLP pound levelized cost load duration curve light detection and ranging Limited Liability Company liquefied natural gas loss of load probability m m2 MAAC MACRS MAIN MAPP Midwest ISO MMBtu MMS MMTCE MNDOC MOU MRO MTEP MVA MW MWh MW-mile meter square meter Mid-Atlantic Area Council Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System Mid-American Interconnected Network Mid-Continent Area Power Pool Midwest Independent System Operator million British thermal units Minerals Management Service million metric tons of carbon equivalent Minnesota Department of Commerce Memorandum of Understanding Midwest Reliability Organization MISO Transmission Expansion Plan megavolt amperes megawatt megawatt-hour megawatt-mile NAICS NAS NCAR NCEP NE NEMS NEPA NERC NESCAUM NGOs nm NOAA NOI NOx NPCC NPV North American Industrial Classification System National Academy of Sciences National Center for Atmospheric Research National Commission on Energy Policy New England National Energy Modeling System National Environmental Policy Act North American Electric Reliability Corporation Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management nongovernmental organizations nautical mile National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notice of intent nitrogen oxides Northeast Power Coordinating Council net present value 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
development & demonstration renewable energy credit Renewable Energy Production Incentive Renewable Energy Policy Project ReliabilityFirst Corporation Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative Rocky Mountain Area Transmission Study Renewable Portfolio Standards Regional Transmission Organization s Sandia SCADA SEAC SEPA SERC SF6 second Sandia National Laboratories supervisory control and data acquisition Strategic Energy Analysis Center Southeastern Power Administration Southeastern Electric Reliability Council sulfur hexafluoride (one of six greenhouse gases identified in the Kyoto Protocol) silicon carbide sulfur dioxide sonic detection and ranging SiC SO2 SODAR 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version xiii .NRC NRECA NREL NSTC NWCC NWF NWS NY NYISO NYSERDA National Research Council National Rural Electric Cooperative Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Science and Technology Council National Wind Coordinating Collaborative National Wildlife Federation National Weather Service New York New York Independent System Operator New York State Energy Research and Development Authority O3 O&M OE OCS OMB ozone operations and maintenance Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability Outer Continental Shelf Office of Management and Budget PBF PGE PJM PMA PNM POI PPA PSE PTC PUC PURPA Public Benefits Fund Portland General Electric Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland Interconnection Power Marketing Administration Public Service Company of New Mexico point of interconnection power purchase agreement Puget Sound Energy production tax credit Public Utility Commission Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act QF qualifying or qualified facility R&D RMA RD&D REC REPI REPP RFC RGGI RMATS RPS RTO research and development Rocky Mountain Area research.
Climate Action Partnership U.S.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service U.S.S. Fish & Wildlife Service U.xiv SOx SPP ST Std. Department of Agriculture U. Geological Survey Utility Wind Integration Group V VAR volt volt-ampere-reactive W WEST Western WCI WECC WGA Wh WinDS WindPACT WPA WRA WRCAI WWG watt Western EcoSystems Technology Western Area Power Administration (formerly WAPA) Western Climate Initiative Western Electricity Coordinating Council Western Governors' Association watt-hour Wind Energy Deployment System Model Wind Partnerships for Advanced Component Technology Wind Powering America Western Resource Advocates Western Regional Climate Action Initiative Wildlife Workgroup 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . SWPA sulfur oxides Southwest Power Pool steam turbine standard deviation Southwestern Power Administration TRE TVA TWh Texas Regional Entity Tennessee Valley Authority terawatt-hours UCTE UKERC USACE USCAP USDA USFS USFWS USGS UWIG Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity UK Energy Research Centre U. Dev.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S.
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version xv .
Chapter 1. The − Others in the wind industry report considers some associated challenges.S. markets. President Bush emphasized the nation's need for greater energy efficiency and a more diversified energy portfolio. A 20% Wind Scenario in 2030. renewable energy. and Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs) − National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) − Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) − Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) This report was prepared by DOE in a joint effort with industry.1 1 Executive Summary & Overview INTRODUCTION AND COLLABORATIVE APPROACH Energy prices. Department of Energy (DOE) − Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). 20% Wind Scenario: Wind Energy Provides 20% of U. Members of this 20% wind collaborative (see 20% Wind Scenario sidebar) produced this report to start the discussion about issues. transmission and grid integration. siting strategies. estimates the impacts and considers specific needs and outcomes in the areas of technology. Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE). and potential environmental effects associated with a 20% Wind Scenario. 1.S.S. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 1 . The nation is working toward generating more energy from domestic resources—energy that can be cost-effective. manufacturing and employment. costs. government. • Black & Veatch engineering and consulting firm and the Nation's national laboratories • American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) (primarily the National Renewable − Leading wind manufacturers and suppliers Energy Laboratory and Lawrence − Developers and electric utilities Berkeley National Laboratory). In 2006. and environmental concerns are driving the United States to rethink its energy mix and develop diverse sources of clean. This led to a collaborative effort to explore a modeled energy scenario in which wind provides 20% of U. Electricity Needs by 2030 Key Issues to Examine: • Does the nation have sufficient wind energy resources? • What are the wind technology requirements? • Does sufficient manufacturing capability exist? • What are some of the key impacts? • Can the electric network accommodate 20% wind? • What are the environmental impacts and benefits? • Is the scenario feasible? Assessment Participants: • U. and potential outcomes associated with the 20% Wind Scenario. electricity by 2030. and replaced or "renewed" without contributing to climate change or major adverse environmental impacts. supply uncertainties. while ambitious could be feasible if the significant challenges identified in this report are overcome.
and key impacts of generating 20% of the nation's electricity from wind energy in 2030. more quickly than the trajectory used for this analysis.S. wind power to this level from today's 11. there is no "silver bullet. it investigates requirements and outcomes in the areas of technology. the nation needs to pursue a portfolio of energy options. more than 1% of U. Government sources for validation of 2007 installed MW were not available at the time this report was written 2 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Energy Information Agency estimates that U.8 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) by 2030.S. electricity demand will grow by 39% from 2005 to 2030.S. which were not incorporated into this report.2 American wind farms are expected to generate an estimated 48 billion kilowatt-hours of wind energy in 2008. the U. consistent with the latter years in the 20% Wind Scenario. manufacturing. expanding the nation's total wind power generating capacity by 45% in a single calendar year and more than doubling the 2006 installation of 2. Major assumptions in the analysis have been highlighted throughout the document and have been summarized in the appendices.6 GW and spanned 34 states.244 MW in 2007 exceeds the more conservative growth trajectory developed for the 20% Wind Scenario of about 4. 1 AEO data from 2007 were used in this report.S. reaching 5. wind power fleet numbered 11. Increasing U.1 SCOPE This report examines some of the costs. To meet 20% of that demand. At the time this report was written (2007). the U. American Wind Energy Associations 2007 Market Report.S. This report presents an analysis of one specific scenario for reaching the 20% level and contrasts it to a scenario of no wind growth beyond the level in 2006." This technical report examines one potential scenario in which wind power serves as a significant element in the portfolio. the 20% Wind Scenario is not a prediction of the future. All data and information in the report are based wind data available through the end of 2006. markets. challenges. These assumptions may be considered optimistic.1 In its Annual Energy Outlook 2007. AEO released new data in March of 2008. Instead.1 The data analysis and model runs for this report were concluded in mid-2007. In this report. wind energy industry installed 5. 2 According to AWEA. This report does not compare the Wind Scenario to other energy portfolio options.244 MW in 2007. This growth represents an increase of more than 290 GW within 23 years. no sensitivity analyses have been done to estimate the impact that changes in the assumptions would have on the information presented here. 1. nor does it outline an action plan. it would not change the overall message of the report. The modeling done for this report estimates that wind power installations with capacities of more than 300 gigawatts (GW) would be needed for the 20% wind in 2030 scenario. manufacturing and markets. This capacity addition of 5. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW) or more than 300.000 MW/year in 2007 and 2008. To successfully address energy security and environmental issues. transmission and integration. U. While the new EIA data could change specific numbers in the report. None of these options by itself can fully address these issues.S.000 megawatts (MW). it paints a picture of what a particular 20% Wind Scenario could mean for the nation. the analysis provides an overview of some potential impacts of these two scenarios by 2030. Specifically.6 GW level would require significant changes in transmission. As summarized at the end of this chapter.S. the U. The wind industry is on track to grow to a size capable of installing 16.1. However. January 2008. environment and siting. electricity supply.454 MW.000 MW/year.
In consultation with DOE. B-10. transmission system expansion costs. future wind energy cost and performance projections were developed. and fuel prices based on Annual Energy Outlook (EIA 2007. These assumptions include projections of future costs and performance for all generation technologies. investors.2). the WinDS base case (Denholm and Short 2006). and new transmission capacity added as needed (see sections A.. • Wind energy generation prescribed annually at national level to reach 20% wind energy by 2030 − A stable policy environment that supports accelerated wind deployment − Balance of generation economically optimized with no policy changes from those in place today (e. • The assumptions used for the WinDS model were obtained from a number of sources. wildlife advocacy groups. AWEA. forthcoming 2008). To identify a range of challenges. including leaders from the nation's utility sector. In all. the engineering company Black & Veatch (Overland Park. wind supply. • Current long-term power purchase agreements are not implemented in WinDS. • Assumes that 10% of existing grid capacity is available for wind energy.3 ASSUMPTIONS AND PROCESS To establish the groundwork for this report.S.2. and key impacts of providing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind.2 CONTRIBUTORS Report contributors include a broad cross section of key stakeholders. and B. and B-11) • Fossil fuel technology costs and performance generally flat between 2005 and 2030 (see tables A-1 and B-13) • Nuclear technology cost reductions expected by 2030 (see tables A-1 and B-13) • Reserve and capacity margins calculated at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region level. possible solutions.4. and public and private businesses.1. environmental communities. 1. The model assumes that local load is met by the generation technologies in a given region. quantified the potential U. and wind industry partners. no production tax credit [PTC] beyond 12/31/08) − Technology cost and performance assumptions as well as electric grid expansion and operation assumptions that affect the direct electric system cost. financing assumptions.1. 3 .g.2 and B. wind resources as a function of geographic location within the continental United States.2. Kansas) analyzed the market potential for significant wind energy growth. and other organizations. government. and developed cost supply curves for the wind resource. Appendix D contains a list of contributors. NREL. the report reflects input from more than 50 key energy stakeholder organizations and corporations. B.S. and the ratepayers within the region.3) • Wind resource as a function of geographic location from various sources (see Table B-8) • Projected electricity demand. the government and policy sectors. be it wind or conventional generation. see sections B.1. This report is not an authoritative expression of policy perspectives or opinions held by representatives of DOE. • Assumes capital costs would be reduced by 10% over the next two decades and capacity factors would be increased by about 15% (corresponding to a 15% increase in annual energy generation by a wind plant) • Assumes future environmental study and permit requirements are not expected to add significant costs to wind technology. • Land-based and offshore wind energy technology cost reductions and performance improvements expected by 2030 (see tables A-1. • Assumes cost of new transmission is generally split between the originating project. Research and modeling was conducted by experts within the electric industry. including technical experts (see Appendix D). and a study performed by Black & Veatch (2007). energy industries. and projected growth rates for wind generation. Similar projections for conventional generation technologies were developed based on Black & Veatch experience with power plant design and construction (Black and Veatch. electricity supplies from other renewable sources of energy would remain at 2006 levels in both scenarios. the stakeholders in the 20% Wind Scenario effort convened seven expert task forces to examine specific 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 1 Wind Energy Deployment System Model Assumptions (See Appendices A and B) • Assumes that the contributions to U.1. AEO 2007 (EIA 2007).
Detailed discussions of the modeling process. and environmental regulation. These teams conducted in-depth analyses of potential impacts. and obtain relevant input from key stakeholders external to the report preparation effort. Environmental and Siting Impacts.nrel. Assumptions about the future of the U. Some assumptions in this analysis could be considered optimistic. and http://www. In the course of the examination. 1. In turn.S. the modeling team contrasted the 20% Wind Scenario impacts to a reference case characterized by no growth in U. Electricity Markets.1.) NREL's Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model3 was employed to create a scenario that paints a "picture" of this level of wind energy generation and evaluates some impacts associated with wind. these essential changes in the power generation and delivery process would involve supporting changes and capabilities in manufacturing. the chapters of this report address some of the requirements and impacts in each of these areas. policy development. As shown in Figure 1-1. For additional information and documentation. Manufacturing and Materials. and large expanded markets to purchase and use it. For comparison. Examples of assumptions used in this analysis are listed in the text box and are presented in detail in Appendix A and B." Appendices A and B. Figure 1-1. wind capacity or other renewable energy sources after 2006.S. is designed to address the principal market issues related to the penetration of wind energy technologies into the electric sector. electric generation and transmission sector were developed in consultation with the task forces and other parties.gov/analysis/winds/ 4 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . developed by NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC). and Supporting Analysis. assumptions. two workshops were held to define and refine the work plan.1 areas critical to this endeavor: Technology and Applications.4 REPORT STRUCTURE A 20% wind energy scenario in 2030 would require improved turbine technology to generate wind power. Report chapters 3 The model. using related studies and various analytic tools to examine the benefits and costs. see text box entitled "Wind Energy Deployment Model Assumptions. and results can be found in appendices A through C. significant changes in transmission systems to deliver it through the electric grid. (See Appendix D for the task force participants. present and discuss preliminary results. Transmission and Integration.
U. specifications and standards • Validation of design tools Monitor Performance • Monitor and evaluate turbine and wind-plant performance • Performance tracking by independent parties • Early identification of problems Rapid Deployment of Problem Resolution • Develop and communicate problem solutions • Focused activities with stakeholders to address critical issues. e. rising concerns about climate change.1.. the U.S.S.1. manufacturers are struggling to keep pace with rising demand (Wiser & Bolinger. Industry growth has since responded positively to policy incentives when they are in effect (see Figure 1-2). by year U.S. average capacity factors have improved 11% over the past two years. components continue to represent a relatively small share of total turbine and tower materials. and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) or goals in roughly 50% of the states.g. Gearbox Reliability Collaborative 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 5 . In addition. Today.S. wind industry is growing rapidly. manufacturers have expanded their capacity to produce and assemble the essential components.S. WIND INDUSTRY After experiencing strong growth in the mid-1980s. U. driven by sustained production tax credits (PTCs).5 1 SETTING THE CONTEXT: TODAY'S U.S. To meet the growing demand for wind energy. Initiatives to Improve Wind Turbine Performance Avoid problems before installation • Improve reliability of turbines and components • Full-scale testing prior to commercial introduction • Development of appropriate design criteria. wind capacity. Cumulative U. Figure 1-2. 2007). turbine (in megawatts [MW]) technology has advanced steadily to offer improved performance. wind industry hit a plateau during the electricity restructuring period in the 1990s. then regained momentum in 1999.S. the U. average turbine size increased by more than 11% over the 2005 level to an average size of 1.S.6 MW. In 2006 alone. and U. Despite this growth.
To promote renewable energy systems. the United States reestablished itself as the world leader in new wind energy in 2005. wind power capacity totaled 11. Nearly 700 MW of new wind generation were installed in the last year before the credit expired—more than in any previous 12-month period since 1985. This resurgence is attributed to increasingly supportive policies. and U. because of its very large wind resources. As the global industry continued to grow into the 1990s. the federal PTC enacted in 1992 (as part of the Energy Policy Act [EPAct]) did little to foster new wind installations until just before its expiration in June 1999. wind industry got its start in California during the 1970s. The California wind industry benefited from federal and state investment tax credits (ITCs) as well as state-mandated standard utility contracts that guaranteed a satisfactory market price for wind power. growing interest in renewable energy. utilities preoccupied by industry restructuring during the 1990s. versus only 2. creating an environment for stable growth. propelled by aggressive renewable energy policies enacted between 1974 and 1985.S. A Brief History of the U. After a decade of trailing Germany and Spain. and Germany became the new international leader. With Iowa and Texas leading the way. and continued improvements in wind technology and performance.500 MW in the United States. with percentages typically increasing over time. After the PTC expired in 1999. 6 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S.1 In 2005 and 2006. It was then reinstated in late 2004. global wind power capacity exceeded 74 GW. wind energy industry to an abrupt halt in the mid-1980s. Wind Industry The U. Expiration of the federal ITC in 1985 and the California incentive in 1986 brought the growth of the U. The United States retained its leadership of wind development in 2006 and. California had installed more than 1. the United States led the world in new wind installations. ending in 2003. when the oil shortage increased the price of electricity generated from oil.S. 2007).000 MW of installed wind power.2 GW of wind power.5 GW. By 2000. and the price of windgenerated electricity dropped by nearly 80% (AWEA 2007). With low natural gas prices and U. By early 2007.S. more than 20 states have followed suit with RPS. is likely to remain a major force in the highly competitive wind markets of the future. This domestic wind power has been installed across 35 states and delivers roughly 0.5 cents (increased annually with inflation) for every kilowatt-hour (kWh) of electricity produced from wind during the first 10 years of operation. many states began requiring electricity suppliers to obtain a small percentage of their supply from renewable energy sources. it was extended for two brief periods.S. Europe had more than 12. business inefficiencies inherent in serving this choppy market inhibited investment and restrained market growth. Turbines installed in 1998 had an average capacity 7 to 10 times greater than that of the 1980s turbines. Although this intermittent policy support led to sporadic growth. representing nearly 90% of global installations at that time. Europe took the lead in wind energy. By 1986. Energy Policy Act of 1992 The PTC gave power producers 1.8% of the electricity consumed in the nation (Wiser and Bolinger. technological advances led to significant increases in turbine power and productivity.
S. and levels of success. Required growth in Scenario would require an U. wind capacity is currently growing rapidly (although from a very small base). In the 2007 Annual Energy Outlook (EIA 2007). While new EIA data could change specific numbers in this report. estimated land needs. the scenario describes the mix of wind resources that would need to be captured.5 GW to more than 300 GW over the next 23 years (see Figure 1-3). 1. electricity supplies from other renewable sources of energy would remain at 2006 levels in both scenarios (see Figure A-6 for resource mix).S. manufacturing requirements. and it would be difficult to develop a "most likely" forecast given today's uncertainties. excluding transmission and integration costs and the PTC) vary by type of location 4 AEO data from 2007 were used in this report. with varying challenges. This report examines one particular scenario for achieving this dramatic growth and contrasts it to another scenario that—for analytic simplicity—assumes no wind growth after 2006.S. The 20% Wind Scenario has been carefully defined to provide a base of common assumptions for detailed analysis of all impact areas. capacity (GW) to implement the installation rate of 16 GW per year 20% Wind Scenario after 2018 (See Figure 1-4). 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 7 . The 20% Wind Figure 1-3. The analysis was also simplified by assuming that the contributions to U. As shown in Figure 1-5.1. an additional 7 GW beyond the 2006 installed capacity of 11. of the impacts and benefits associated with increased reliance on wind energy generation under given assumptions. the geographic distribution of wind power installations. and the pace of growth that would be necessary. wind power capacity to grow from the current 11. Broadly stated. impacts. and that wind energy technology will be a part of any future electricity generation scenario for the United States. This results in an estimate. it would not change the overall message of the report. AEO released new data in March of 2008.S. which were not incorporated into this report.2 1 SCENARIO DESCRIPTION The 20% Wind Scenario presented here would require U. Specifically. The authors recognize that U.2. expressed in terms of parameters.1 WIND GEOGRAPHY The United States possesses abundant wind resources. current "bus-bar" energy costs for wind (based on costs of the wind plant only. the required utility and transmission infrastructure. This ambitious growth could be achieved in many different ways. this 20% scenario is designed to consider incremental costs while recognizing realistic constraints and considerations (see the Considerations in the 20% Scenario sidebar in Appendix A). a great deal of uncertainty remains about the level of contribution that wind could or is likely to make.6 GW is forecast by 2030. At the same time. The analysis presented here sidesteps these uncertainties and contrasts some of the challenges and impacts of producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind with a scenario in which no additional wind is added after 2006.4 Other organizations are projecting higher capacity additions.
NREL periodically classifies wind resources by wind speed which forms the basis of the Black and Veatch study. 8 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Transmission and integration will add additional costs which are discussed in Chapter 4. Supply curve for wind energy—current bus-bar energy costs See Appendix B for wind technology cost and performance projections. PTC and transmission and integration costs are excluded. The assumptions used in this report are different than EIA's assumptions and are documented in Appendix A &B.000 GW of available land-based wind resources (Black and Veatch. using the existing transmission system or new transmission lines where necessary. however. The nation has more than 8. See Appendix B for further details.1 Figure 1-4. As shown in Figure 1-6 on the next page. the delivered cost of wind power increases when costs associated with connecting to the existing electric grid are included. Figure 1-5. 20% Cumulative installed wind power capacity required to produce 20% of projected electricity by 2030 (land-based or offshore) and by class of wind power density (higher classes offer greater productivity). forthcoming 2008) that industry estimates can be captured economically. The cost and performance assumptions of the 20% Wind Scenario are based on real market data from 2007. be transmitted from where it is generated to areas of high electricity demand. Electricity must.
5 Chapter 2 presents additional discussion of wind technology potential. Based on this least-cost optimization algorithm (which incorporates future cost per kilowatt-hour of wind and cost of transmission). generation capacity expansion required to meet projected electricity demand growth through 2030. Including the PTC reduces the cost by about $20/MWh. and costs are further reduced if technology improvements in cost and performance are projected. including the cost of connecting to the existing transmission system.. 5 The modeling assumptions prescribed annual wind energy generation levels that reached 20% of projected demand by 2030 so as to demonstrate technical feasibility and quantify costs and benefits. Both wind technology and conventional generation technology (i. Supply curve for wind energy—energy costs including connection to 10% of existing transmission grid capacity Note: See Appendix B for wind technology cost and performance projections. and in other cases. Readers should refer to Appendices A and B to see a more complete list of the modeling assumptions. including future reductions in cost per kilowatt-hour for wind sites both near to and remote from demand sites from 2000 through 2030. includes transmission costs to access existing electric transmission within 500 miles of wind resource. The models suggest that as much as 600 GW of wind resources could be available for $60 to $100 per megawatt-hour (MWh). NREL's WinDS model estimated the overall U. new transmission lines connecting highwind resource areas to load centers could be cost-effective.e.1 Cost and performance for all technologies either decrease or remain flat over time. Of the 293 GW that would be added. Wind energy development for this 20% Wind Scenario optimized the total delivered costs. Policy options that would help induce this growth trajectory were not included. as in the case of large demand centers along wind-rich coastlines. the WinDS model further specified Figure 1-6. It is assumed that a 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 9 . the model specifies more than 50 GW of offshore wind energy. nuclear) were included in the modeling but other renewables were not. mostly along the northeastern and southeastern seaboards. coal. Excludes PTC. high transmission costs could offset the advantage of land-based generation.S. In some cases.
each state's wind capacity level will vary significantly as electricity markets evolve and state policies promote or restrict the energy production of electricity from wind and other renewable and conventional energy sources. the visual impacts and other siting concerns of wind energy projects must be taken into account in assessing land requirements. the 20% Wind Scenario presented here is not a prediction. As shown in Figure 1-6. The figure does not represent proposals for specific Figure 1-7. which include both generation and transmission. new landbased installations would require approximately 50.2 WIND POWER TRANSMISSION AND INTEGRATION Development of 293 GW of new wind capacity would require expanding the U.2. Figure 1-6 simply shows one way in which a 20% wind future could evolve. 1. Again. Total land requirements are extensive. but only about 2% to 5% of the total would be dedicated entirely to the wind installation. In addition. Figure 1-7 conceptually illustrates the optimized use of wind resources within the local areas as well as the transmission of wind-generated electricity from high-resource areas to high-demand centers. yet the actual footprint of land-based turbines and related infrastructure would require only about 1.1 the wind capacity needed by state by 2030. wind capacity in Ohio was modified and offshore wind development in Texas was included. In reality.500 km of dedicated land—slightly less than the area of Rhode Island. Wind capacity levels in each state depend on a variety of assumptions and the national optimization of electricity generation expansion. transmission lines.000 2 to 2. Based on the perspectives of industry experts and near-term wind development plans.S. This data was generated by the WinDS model given prescribed constraints. The 20% scenario envisions 241 GW of land-based and 54 GW of shallow offshore wind resource to optimize delivered costs. most states would have the opportunity to develop their wind resources. Chapter 5 contains additional discussion of land use and visual impacts. stable policy environment that recognizes wind's benefits could lead to growth rates that would result in the 20% Wind Scenario.000 2 square kilometers (km ) of land. 10 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . 46 States would have substantial wind development by 2030 Land Requirements Altogether. transmission grid in a manner that not only accesses the best wind resource regions of the country but also relieves current congestion on the grid including new transmission lines to deliver wind power to electricity consumers.
and their analyses of these impacts have helped to reduce these concerns.S. This amounts to an 11% reduction in natural gas across all industries. All new electrical generation including wind energy would require expansion of U. electricity generation as shown in Figure 1-9. because it typically has a higher cost.3 ELECTRICAL ENERGY MIX The U. and given optimistic assumptions.10% or less of the value of the wind energy generated. 1. A complete discussion of transmission issues can be found in Chapter 4. studies suggest the cost impact could be as little as the current level . wind's variability is being accommodated. electricity demand will grow by 39% from 2005 to 2030. As discussed in detail in Chapter 4.S. wind would supply enough energy to displace about 50% of natural gas electric utility consumption and 18% of coal consumption by 2030. Figure 1-8. transmission by 2030 Until recently.) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 11 . In this scenario. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that U.S.2. concerns had been prevalent in the electric utility sector about the difficulty and costs of dealing with the variability and uncertainty of energy production from wind plants and other weather-driven renewable technologies. The 20% Wind Scenario would require delivery of nearly 1. But utility engineers in some parts of the United States now have extensive experience with wind plant impacts.S.8 billion MWh by 2030. reaching 5. altering U.16 billion MWh of wind energy in 2030. (Gas-fired generation would probably be displaced first.1 Figure 1-8 displays transmission needs in the form of one technically feasible transmission grid as a 765 kV overlay.
which totaled more than 16 GW in 2005 alone (EIA 2005). electrical energy mix at roughly that rate through 2030. though. This increase in installation rate. is comparable to the recent annual installation rate of natural gas units. This overview is provided as context for the potential impacts and technical challenges discussed in the next sections. but would increase the need for additional combustion turbine natural gas capacity to maintain electric system reliability. 6 Appendix B presents a full analysis of changes in the capacity mix and energy generation under the 20% Wind Scenario.S. U. These units. Conceptual transmission plan to accommodate 400 GW of wind energy (AEP 2007) The increased wind development in this scenario could reduce the need for new coal and combined cycle natural gas capacity.6 1. The assumptions of the 20% Wind Scenario form the foundation for the technical analyses presented in the remaining chapters.1 Figure 1-9. although quite large.2. as seen in Figure 1-10. wind installations.4 PACE OF NEW WIND INSTALLATIONS Manufacturing capacity would require some time to ramp up to support rapid growth in new U. would be run only as needed.S. 12 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . The 20% Wind Scenario estimates that the installation rate would need to increase from installing 3 GW per year today to more than 16 GW per year by 2018 and continue Figure 1-10.
The impacts described in this section are based largely on the analytical tools and methodology discussed in detail in appendices A.. water conservation.S. Reduces electric sector CO2 emissions by 825 million metric tons. energy security: Diversifies our electricity portfolio and represents an indigenous energy source with stable prices not subject to fuel volatility • Energy consumers: Wind potentially reduces demand for fossil fuels. electricity and financial services.e. The new manufacturing will cause demand is growing rapidly. water pollution. transportation. The threat of climate change and the growing attention to it are helping to • American workers: Generates well-paying jobs in position wind power as an sectors that support wind development.1 GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTIONS Supplying 20% of U.S. energy efficiency) could help meet much of the new demand while reducing GHG emissions. • U. cleaner power sources (e. in turn reducing fuel prices and stabilizing electricity rates • Local economics: Creates new income source for rural landowners and tax revenues for local communities in wind development areas. ash. tapping this resource at this level would entail large front-end capital investments to install wind capacity and expanded transmission systems. Wind power would be a critical part of a broad and near-term strategy to substantially reduce air pollution.g. B. • Lake and streambed acidification from acid rain or mining • Water consumption associated with mining or electricity generation • Production of toxic solid wastes. therefore. Wind vs. and energy security. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 13 . wind power would also stabilize and diversify national energy supplies.3. Traditional Electricity Generation Wind power avoids several of the negative effects of traditional electricity generation from fossil fuels: • Emissions of mercury or other heavy metals into the air • Emissions associated with extracting and transporting fuels. electricity from wind could reduce electric sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 825 million metric tons. construction..3 1 IMPACTS The 20% Wind Scenario presented here offers potentially positive impacts in terms of GHG reductions. As a domestic energy resource. and global climate change associated with traditional generation technologies (see Wind versus Traditional Electricity Generation sidebar). However. presents an opportunity for reducing emissions today as the nation develops additional clean power options for tomorrow. and significant growth in the wind industry supply chain.S.1. U. wind energy represents approximately 30% of new capacity additions (AWEA 2008). Greater use of wind energy. such as increasingly attractive option for new manufacturing. and C. as compared to the base case of no wind growth in this analysis. reduces GHG emissions. or slurry • Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 20% Wind Scenario: Projected Impacts • Environment: Avoids air pollution. power generation. renewable • Water savings: Reduce cumulative water use in the energy) and energy-saving practices electric sector by 8% (4 trillion gallons) (i. and reduces water use in electricity generation. 1. Today. engineering.
2007). electricity from wind could avoid approximately 825 million metric tons of CO2 in the electric sector in 2030. a cumulative total of 7.S. based on the analysis completed for this report. Appendix A presents results in carbon equivalent.600 million tons of CO2 would be avoided by 2030. not CO2.1 20% Wind Scenario: Major Challenges • Investment in the nation's transmission system so the power generated is delivered to urban centers that need the increased supply. the WinDS model projects higher CO2 emissions than the EIA model because it assumes a higher share of coal-fired generation. The United States annually emits approximately 6.000 million tons of CO2 would be avoided through 2050.600 million metric tons of CO2 Figure 1-11. generating 20% of U. In addition. and environmental issues within the context of generating electricity. in tandem with better regional planning. A growing number of energy and environmental organizations are calling for expanded wind and other renewable power deployment to try to reduce society's carbon footprint.7 These emissions are expected to increase to nearly 7. As shown in Figure 1-11. • Larger electric load balancing areas.900 million metric tons by 2030. and Concerns about climate change have spurred many industries. and utilities to call for reductions in GHG emissions. environmentalists.000 million metric tons of CO2. including wind power. wildlife. • Continued reduction in wind capital cost and improvement in turbine performance through technology advancement and improved manufacturing capabilities. GHG Reduction Under the 20% Wind Scenario. Governments at many levels have enacted policies to actively support clean electricity generation. Although the cost of reducing emissions is uncertain. Wind power is one of the potential supplyside solutions to the climate change problem (Socolow and Pacala 2006). The 20% scenario would also reduce cumulative emissions from the electric sector through that same year by more than 7. policy makers. Annual and cumulative wind installations by 2030 7 CO2 can be converted to carbon equivalent by multiplying by 12/44. According to EIA. and more than 15. with the electric power sector accounting for approximately 40% of the total (AEO. including the renewable energy PTC and state RPS. • Addressing potential concerns about local siting. so that regions can depend on a diversity of generation sources. the most affordable near-term strategy likely involves wider deployment of currently available efficiency and clean energy technologies. 14 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
8 Carbon mitigation policies were not modeled in either the 20% wind or no new Wind Scenarios. In general. cumulative climate change impacts could grow to more than 15.1 (2. employment. nitrogen oxides.2 WATER CONSERVATION The 20% scenario would potentially reduce cumulative water consumption in the electric sector by 8% from 2007 through 2030.3. According to the WinDS model. additional technologies could be implemented to reduce the need for conventional generation technology (see Appendix A). avoiding or postponing the associated carbon emissions.000 million tons of CO2 avoided by mid-century (4. by 2030. The Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Environment Programme and World Meteorological Organization's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that. Current DOE projections anticipate construction of approximately 140 GW of new coal plant capacity by 2030 (EIA 2007). Deployment of low-GHG (greenhouse gas) emission technologies… would be required for achieving stabilization and cost reductions" (IPCC 2007). Given costs relative to other supply options. CO2 emission reductions are not only a wind energy benefit but could be achieved under other energy mix scenarios.S. As a result. annual water consumption in the electric sector would be reduced by 17%. The 20% Wind Scenario constructed here would displace a significant amount of fossil fuel generation. a large increase in total wind capacity could potentially defer the need to build some new coal capacity. All of these state and regional efforts include wind energy as part of a portfolio strategy to reduce overall emissions from energy production (RGGI 2006). renewable electricity can have a 30% to 35% share of the total electricity supply in 2030. Coal displacement is of particular interest because the carbon emissions reduction opportunity is relatively higher. In 2030. wind generation is projected to displace 50% of electricity generated from natural gas and 18% of that generated from coal. meaning that investments in 20% wind by 2030 would continue to supply clean energy at least through 2050. Wind turbines typically have a service life of at least 20 years and transmission lines can last more than 50 years. and mercury. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is a 10-state collaborative in the Northeast to address CO2 emissions. Recognizing that coal power will continue to play a major role in future electricity generation. 1. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 15 . states have created climate action plans. See Figures 1-12 and 13. "Renewable energy generally has a positive effect on energy security.8 Wind energy that displaces fossil fuel generation can also help meet existing regulations for emissions of conventional pollutants. including sulfur dioxide. More than 30 U. or 4 trillion gallons—significantly reducing water consumption in the arid states of the interior West. and air quality.182 million metric tons of carbon equivalent). the 20% Wind Scenario could avoid more than 80 GW of new coal capacity. Under carbon mitigation scenarios. which results in conventional generation mixes typical of current generation capacity.100 million metric tons of carbon equivalent).
Figure 1-12. Annual CO2 emissions avoided (vertical bars)
would reach 825 million tons by 2030.
The cumulative
emissions by
2030 would
total 7,600
million tons.
Water scarcity is a significant problem in many parts of the country. Even so, few
realize that electricity generation accounts for nearly half of all water withdrawals in
the nation, with irrigation coming in second at 34% (USGS 2005). Water is used for
cooling of natural gas, coal, and nuclear power plants and is an increasing part of the
challenge in developing those resources.
Figure 1-13. Avoided emissions would nearly level projected
growth in CO2 emissions from the electricity sector
Although a significant
portion of the water
withdrawn for electricity
production is recycled back
through the system,
approximately 2% to 3% of
the water withdrawn is
consumed through
evaporative losses. Even
this small fraction adds up
to approximately 1.6 to 1.7
trillion gallons of water
consumed for power
generation each year.
As additional wind
generation displaces fossil
fuel generation, each
megawatt-hour generated by
wind could save as much as
600 gallons of water that would otherwise be lost to fossil plant cooling.9 Because
wind energy generation uses a negligible amount of water, the 20% Wind Scenario
would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water through 2030, with
annual reductions shown in Figure 1-14. The annual savings in 2030 is
approximately 450 billion gallons. This reduction would reduce the expected annual
water consumption for electricity generation in 2030 by 17%. The projected water
See Appendix A for specific assumptions.
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
savings are dependant on future generation mix, which is
discussed further in Appendix A.
Wind Reduces Vulnerability
Continued reliance on natural gas for
Based on the WinDS modeling results, nearly 30% of the
new power generation is likely to put
projected water savings from the 20% Wind Scenario
the United States in growing
would occur in western states, where water resources are
competition in world markets for
particularly scarce. The Western Governors Association
liquefied natural gas (LNG)—some of
(WGA) highlights this concern in its Clean and Diversified
which will come from Russia, Qatar,
Energy Initiative, which recognizes increased water
Iran, and other nations in less-than
consumption as a key challenge in accommodating rapid
stable regions.
growth in electricity demand. In its 2006 report on water
needs, the WGA states that "difficult political choices will
be necessary regarding future economic and environmental
uses of water and the best way to encourage the orderly transition to a new
equilibrium" (WGA 2006).
There is broad and growing recognition that the nation should diversify its energy
portfolio so that a supply disruption affecting a single energy source will not
significantly disrupt the national economy. Developing domestic energy sources
with known and stable costs would significantly improve U.S. energy stability and
When electric utilities have a Power Purchase Agreement or own wind energy
turbines, the price of energy is expected to remain relatively flat and predictable for
the life of the wind project, given that there are no fuel costs and assuming that the
machines are well maintained. In contrast, a large part of the cost of coal- and gasfired electricity is in the fuel, for which prices are often volatile and unpredictable.
Fuel price risks reduce security and stability for U.S. manufacturers and consumers,
as well as for the economy as a whole. Even small reductions in the amount of
energy available or changes in the price of fuel can cause large economic disruptions
across the nation. This capacity to disrupt was clearly illustrated by the 1973
embargo imposed by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (the
"Arab oil embargo"); the 2000–2001 California electricity market problems; and the
gasoline and natural gas shortages and price spikes that followed the 2005 hurricane
damage to oil refinery and natural gas processing facilities along the Gulf Coast.
Using wind energy increases security and stability by diversifying the national
Figure 1-14. National water savings from the 20% Wind Scenario
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
electricity portfolio. Just as those investing for retirement are advised to diversify
investments across companies, sectors, and stocks and bonds, diversification helps
distribute the risks and stabilize rates for electricity consumers.
Wind energy reduces reliance on foreign energy sources from politically unstable
regions. As a domestic energy source, wind requires no imported fuel, and the
turbine components can be either produced on U.S. soil or imported from any
friendly nation with production capabilities.
Energy security concerns for the electric industry will likely increase in the
foreseeable future as natural gas continues to be a leading source of new generation
supply. With declining domestic natural gas sources, future natural gas supplies are
expected to come in the form of LNG imported on tanker ships. U.S. imports of
LNG could quadruple by 2030 (EIA 2007). Almost 60% of uncommitted natural gas
reserves are in Iran, Qatar, and Russia. These countries, along with others in the
Middle East, are expected to be major suppliers to the global LNG market. Actions
by those sources can disrupt international energy markets and thus have indirect
adverse effects on our economy. Additional risks arise from competition for these
resources caused by the growing energy demands of China, India, and other
developing nations. Under the 20% scenario, according to the WinDS model results,
wind energy could displace approximately 11% of natural gas consumption which is
equivalent to 60% of expected LNG imports in 2030.10 This shift would reduce the
nation's energy vulnerability to uncertain natural gas supplies. Please see Appendix
A for gas demand reduction assumptions and calculations.
Continued reliance on fossil energy sources exposes the nation to price risks and
supply uncertainties. Although the electric sector does not rely heavily on petroleum,
which represents one of the nation's biggest energy security threats, diversifying the
electric generation mix with increased domestic renewable energy would still
enhance national energy security by increasing energy diversity and price stability.
The overall economic cost of the 20% Wind Scenario accrues mainly from the
incremental costs of wind energy relative to other generation sources. This is
impacted by the assumptions behind the scenario, listed in table A-6. Also, some
incremental transmission would be required to connect wind to the electric power
system. This transmission investment would be in addition to the significant
investment in the electric grid that will be needed to serve continuing load growth,
whatever the mix of new generation. The market cost of wind energy remains higher
than that of conventional energy sources in many areas across the country. In
addition, the transmission grid would have to be expanded and upgraded from windrich areas and across the existing system to deliver wind energy to many demand
Compared to other generation sources, the 20% Wind Scenario entails higher initial
capital costs (to install wind capacity and associated transmission infrastructure) in
many areas, yet offers lower ongoing energy costs than conventional power plants
for operations, maintenance and fuel. Given the optimistic cost and performance
assumptions of wind and conventional energy sources (detailed in Appendix B), the
20% Wind Scenario could require an incremental investment of as little as $43
billion NPV more than the base-case no new Wind Scenario. This would represent
Compared to consumption of the high price scenario of EIA (2007), used in this report
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
less than 0.06 cent (6 one-hundredths of 1 cent) per kilowatt-hour of total generation
by 2030, or roughly 50 cents per month per household. Figure 1-18 shows this cost
comparison. The base-case costs are calculated under the assumption of no major
Figure 1-15. Incremental investment cost of 20% wind is modest;
a difference of 2%
changes in fuel availability or environmental restrictions. In this scenario, the cost
differential would be about 2% of a total NPV expenditure exceeding $2 trillion.
This analysis intended to identify the incremental cost of pursuing the 20% Wind
Scenario. In regions where the capital costs of the 20% scenario exceed those of
building little or no additional wind capacity, the differential could be offset by the
operating cost and benefits discussed earlier. For example, even though Figure 1-18
shows that under optimistic assumptions the 20% Wind Scenario could increase total
capital cost by nearly $197 billion, most of that cost would be offset by the nearly
$155 billion in decreased fuel expenditure, resulting in a net incremental cost of
approximately $43 billion in NPV. These monetary cost do not reflect other
potential offsetting positive impacts.
An integrated approach to expanding the transmission system would need to include
furnishing access to wind resources as well as meeting other system needs.
As estimated by the NREL WinDS model, given optimistic assumptions, the specific
cost of the proposed transmission expansion for the 20% Wind Scenario is $20
billion in NPV. The actual required grid investment could also involve significant
costs for permitting delays, construction of grid extensions to remote areas with
wind resources, and investments in advanced grid controls, integration and training
to enable regional load balancing of wind resources.
The total installed costs for wind plants include costs associated with siting and
permitting of these plants. It has become clear that wind power expansion would
require careful, logical, and fact-based consideration of local and environmental
concerns, allowing siting issues to be addressed within a broad risk framework.
Experience in many regions has shown that this can be done, but efficient,
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
September. Amsterdam: 20 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Kim.eia. "A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check. A. http://www. L. 2007.awea. 2007. Pacala. R.doe.1. There are also substantial positive impacts from wind power expansion on the scale and pace described in this chapter are not likely to be realized in a business-as-usual future.pdf EIA (Energy Information Administration). Stokes. Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change.doe. Brussels.ch/ipccreports/ar4 wg2. Global Energy Technology Strategy: Addressing Climate Change. Malone.E.W. 2006. Zervos. USA National Energy Scenario.. and O. M. Biewald. R. S. R.A. S. Wise.pnl.. 2007. Overland Park. American Wind Energy Association Web site.html. et al. A. April 2007.. B. E. Inc. L.H. Belgium.M. PCC Report presented at 8th session of Working Group II of the IPCC. T. 1. Socolow. O'Connell. International Wind Energy Development. Schafer. and S. J. http://www. and impacts associated with the 20% Wind Scenario presented in this report. Cambridge.A. J. Richland.html. Roschelle.gov/oiaf/aeo/index. KS: Black & Veatch. MA: Synapse Energy Economics.htm Johnston. Washington. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Teske. 20% Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. Runci. Washington. Hausman." Scientific American. 2007. Energy [R]evolution: A Blueprint for Solving Global Warming. DC: EIA. 2007: http://www. Edmonds..gov/gtsp/docs/gtsp_2007_final. DC: EIA. Chapter 5 covers these issues in more detail. Clarke. Denmark: BTM.J.htm. White.html.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat2p6.org/about. Schlissel. A. Ringkøbing. http://www. 1. Table 2.rggi. BTM Consult. P.5 REFERENCES AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING AWEA 2007.H. WA: Global Energy Strategy Technology Project." http://www.org/faq/cost. 2005. World Market Update 2006. and G. Oct. 2007. Dooley. Electric Power Annual.1 streamlined procedures will likely be needed to enable installation rates in the range of 16 GW per year.ipcc.eia. 2006. Climate Change 2007: Impacts. challenges. Sommer. Smith. E. and D. S.6. Pletka. domestic energy sources with minimal emissions of GHGs and other environmental pollutants. 2006. RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative).4 CONCLUSION There are significant costs. "About RGGI.J. http://www. Woolf.J. 2007. Achieving this scenario would involve a major national commitment to clean. EIA. D. Climate Change and Power: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Costs and Electricity Resource Planning.. Annual Energy Outlook.L.
LBNL-56756. http://www.1 Greenpeace International. http://www. M. Geological Survey). 4. Report No. and M.greenpeace. Scotland: Wood Mackenzie.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/htdocs/figure01. Water Needs and Strategies for a Sustainable Future. 2006. CA: Berkeley Lab.us cap. Bolinger.pdf Wiser. St. R.usgs. Climate Action Partnership). Berkeley.pdf Wood Mackenzie. Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices through Increased Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency.westgov. A Call for Action. p.S.gov/EA/EMP/reports/56756.S. 2007. Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000. Impact of a Federal Renewable Portfolio Standard. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 21 . Clair. Edinburgh. 2005. http://www.org/USCAPCallForAction..pdf USCAP (U. http://pubs.org/wga/publicat/Water06.html WGA (Western Governors' Association).pdf USGS (U. 2007. http://eetd.org/raw/content/usa/press center/reports4/energy-r-evolution-introduc.lbl. 2005.
1 22 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
1 INTRODUCTION Current turbine technology has enabled wind energy to become a viable power source in today's energy market. By 1940. and ultimately. improved combustion and manufacturing processes. more reliable cars with higher fuel efficiency. In a functional sense. Not only had the technology of the vehicle improved. Looking back at the automobiles produced more than 30 years ago.Chapter 2. These technology advances enable today's turbines to reliably deliver electricity to the grid at a reasonable cost. these new advances could potentially have a significant impact on commercial product lines in the next 10 years. and mitigating risk through enhanced system reliability. manufacturers had produced vehicles that could reliably move people and goods across the country. automotive fleet stood in 1940. Wind Turbine Technology 2 Today's wind technology has enabled wind to enter the electric power mainstream. and demonstration (RD&D). The large-scale production of cars began with the first Model T production run in 1910. after 30 years of making cars and trucks in large numbers. great strides will be made to produce even more advanced machines supporting future deployment of wind power technology. increasing capacity factors. This chapter describes the status of wind technology today and provides a brief history of technology development over the past three decades. one would hardly recognize the vehicles or infrastructure as the same as those in 1940. Through continued RD&D and infrastructure development. safer. Yet 30 years later. Gradual improvements have been made in the past 30 years over several generations of wind energy products. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 23 . electricity generation. we see how RD&D led to the continuous infusion of modern electronics. but the infrastructure investment in roads and service stations made their use practical. These areas of study include reducing capital costs. Distributed wind technology (100 kilowatts (kW) or less) are also addressed in this chapter.S. wind energy provides approximately 1% of total U. wind turbines now stand roughly where the U. Prospective improvements to utility-scale land-based wind turbines as well as offshore wind technology are discussed. Continued technological advancement would be required under the 20% Wind Scenario. A good parallel to wind energy evolution can be derived from the history of the automotive industry in the United States. With sufficient research. Even so. in 1970.S. Advancements in turbine technology that have the potential to increase wind energy's presence are currently being explored. development. 2.
2. greatly increases the U. it is assumed that capital costs would be reduced by 10% over the next two decades and capacity factors would be increased by about 15% (corresponding to a 15% increase in annual energy generation by a wind plant).S land area that could be used for wind deployment. see Appendix B. and reliability has improved. efficiency has increased. as shown in Figure 2-2 for the state of Indiana. particularly the Midwestern region from Texas to North Dakota. Taking these measurements into account. For a description of U. Measuring potential wind energy generation at 100-m elevation. Highquality products are now routinely delivered by major suppliers of turbines around the world and complete wind generation plants are being engineered into the grid infrastructure to meet utility needs. wind resources. In the 20% scenario outlined in this report. wind energy technology has improved dramatically up to the present. 2.2. current U. Figure 2-1. The wind resource potential at 50 m above ground on land and offshore Identifying the good wind potential at high elevations in states such as Indiana and off the shore of both coasts is important because it drives developers to find ways to harvest this energy. is rich in wind energy resources as shown in Figure 2-1. Many of the opportunities being pursued through advanced 24 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . The United States.S.1 WIND RESOURCES Wind technology is driven by the nature of the resource to be harvested.2 2 TODAY'S COMMERCIAL WIND TECHNOLOGY Beginning with the birth of modern wind-driven electricity generators in the late 1970s. land-based and offshore wind resources are estimated to be sufficient to supply the electrical energy needs of the entire country several times over.S. the projected operating hub height of the next generation of modern turbines. which illustrates the wind resources measured at a 50 meter (m) elevation. Capital costs have decreased.
as illustrated in Figure 2-3. A turbine can capture only a portion of this cubic increase in energy. referred to as the rated power. This is called controlling the blade pitch. thus. because power above the level for which the electrical system has been designed. along with sensors on the generator and drivetrain. The turbine is pointed into the wind by rotating the nacelle about the tower. a turbine will start producing power in winds of about 5.41 m/s. Comparison of the wind energy resource at 50 m. which are currently being deployed around the world. This is called controlling the yaw. though. have three-bladed rotors with diameters of 70 m to 80 m mounted atop 60-m to 80-m towers.35 m/s. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 25 .6 megawatts (MW) of electrical power. the average turbine installed in the United States in 2006 can produce approximately 1.2 TODAY'S MODERN WIND TURBINE Modern wind turbines. Most utility-scale turbines are upwind machines. 2. meaning that they operate with the blades upwind of the tower to avoid the blockage created by the tower.2. also tell the blade pitch controller how to regulate the power output and rotor speed to prevent overloading the structural components. or to access extensive offshore wind resources. Turbine power output is controlled by rotating the blades about their long axis to change the angle of attack with respect to the relative wind as the blades spin about the rotor hub. The amount of energy in the wind available for extraction by the turbine increases with the cube of wind speed. Typically installed in arrays of 30 to 150 machines. The turbine will pitch or feather the blades to stop power production and rotation at about 22.Figure 2-2. These wind sensors. is allowed to pass through the rotor. a 10% increase in wind speed creates a 33% increase in available energy. 70 m. and 100 m for Indiana 2 technology are intended to achieve higher elevations where the resource is much greater. Generally.52 m/s–13. Wind sensors on the nacelle tell the yaw controller where to point the turbine.36 m/s and reach maximum power output at about 12.
1. reaching 36% in 2004 and 2005. and as a result. however. 2.5 MW • Electrical Controls Tower. the speed of the wind increases with height above the ground. Many turbine designers do not expect the rotors of land-based turbines to become much larger than about 100 m in diameter. the logistical constraints of transporting the components via highways and of obtaining cranes large enough to lift the components present a major economic barrier that is difficult to overcome.5 cents/kilowatt-hour (kWh) with an average near 5 cents/kWh 26 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . which is why engineers have found ways to increase the height and the size of wind turbines while minimizing the costs of materials. 80 m Minivan In general. 37 m Nacelle Enclosing: Rotor Hub • Low-Speed Shaft • Gearbox • Generator. Since 2003. The turbines that began commercial operation after 1998. The data shows that turbines in the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) database (Wiser and Bolinger 2007) that began operating commercially before 1998 have an average capacity factor of about 22%. The cost of wind-generated electricity has dropped dramatically since 1980.2. when the first commercial wind plants began operating in California.Figure 2-3. Figure 2-5 (Wiser and Bolinger 2007) shows that in 2006 the price paid for electricity generated in large wind farms was between 3. however. A modern 1. their capacity factors have slowly increased. Figure 2-4 shows the capacity factors at commercial operation dates (CODs) ranging from 1998 to 2005.3 WIND PLANT PERFORMANCE AND PRICE The performance of commercial turbines has improved over time.0 and 6. with corresponding power outputs of about 3 MW to 5 MW.5-MW wind turbine installed in a wind power plant 2 Rotor Blades • Shown Feathered • Length. show an increasing capacity factor trend. But land-based turbine size is not expected to grow as dramatically in the future as it has in the past. wind energy prices have increased. however. Larger sizes are physically possible.
dollar relative to the euro (many major turbine components are imported from Europe and there are relatively few wind turbine component manufacturers in the United States) A significant rise in material costs such as steel and copper as well as transportation fuels over the last three years 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 27 . state incentives. Turbine capacity factor by commercial operation date (COD) using 2006 data 2 Figure 2-5. and revenue from the sale of any renewable energy credits.S. Wind energy prices have increased since 2002 for the following reasons (Wiser and Bolinger 2007) z z z Shortages of turbines and components resulting from the dramatic recent growth of the wind industry in the United States and Europe The weakening U. This price includes the benefit of the federal production tax credit (PTC).Figure 2-4. Wind energy price by commercial operation date (COD) using 2006 data (1 cent/kWh = $10/megawatt-hour [MWh]).
wind operators and manufacturers have worked to develop better machines with each new generation of designs. producing a great deal of turbulence for the downwind machines. 2. which has now been replaced by variable-speed designs employing high-speed solid-state switches of advanced power electronics. The DC alternator gave way to the grid-synchronized induction generator. off-again cycle of the wind energy PTC (uncertainty hinders investment in new turbine production facilities and encourages hurried and expensive production. A 50-kW machine.S. however. is now dwarfed by the 1. Increased understanding of aeroelastic loads and the ability to incorporate this knowledge into finite element models and structural dynamics codes make the machines of today more robust but also more flexible and lighter on a relative basis than those of a decade ago. In the 1980s. Increased RD&D efforts and innovation will be required to continue to expand the wind energy industry. considered large in 1980. Little was known about structural loads caused by turbulence. Airfoils. Recognizing these issues. many with full-span pitch control. Reliability and availability suffered as a result. Blades that had once been made of sail or sheet metal progressed through wood to advanced fiberglass composites. Many RD&D advances have contributed to these changes.z 2 The on-again. Designs moved from mechanical cams and linkages that feathered or furled a machine to high-speed digital controls. and grid-unfriendly. many of the simpler and easier improvements have already been incorporated into today's turbines. greatly improved the technology.5-MW to 2. Additionally. are designed for insensitivity to surface roughness and dirt. the practical approach of using low-cost parts from agricultural and boat-building industries produced machinery that usually worked. supplying mechanical power for grinding grain and pumping water. With the exception of battery chargers and rare experiments with larger electricity-producing machines. Expected future reductions in wind energy costs would come partly from expected investment in the expansion of manufacturing volume in the wind industry. such as yaw drives. In addition. the small-diameter machines were deployed mostly in densely packed arrays in the California wind corridors that were not aesthetically pleasing in such a rural setting. wind energy filled a small niche market. transportation. 28 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .4 WIND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Until the early 1970s. and installation of projects when the tax credit is available). high-maintenance. Drag-based devices and simple lift-based designs gave way to experimentally designed and tested high-lift rotors. These densely packed arrays also often blocked the wind from neighboring turbines. Increased RD&D in the latter half of the twentieth century. policy for renewable energy and a heightened RD&D effort could also lower costs. which are now tested in wind tunnels.2. As with any maturing technology.5-MW machines being routinely installed today. which led to the frequent and early failure of critical parts. as well as electricity for rural battery charging. the windmills of 1850 and even 1950 differed very little from the primitive devices from which they were derived. a stable U. however. but was heavy.
(The increase in wind speed with elevation is referred to as wind shear. The primary argument for limiting the size of wind turbines is based on the squarecube law. the cost for a larger turbine will grow faster than the resulting energy output revenue. The development path and growth of wind turbines As discussed in Section 2. the size has grown along the linear curve and has achieved reductions in life-cycle cost of energy (COE). Each group of wind turbine designers has predicted that its latest machine is the largest that a wind turbine will ever be. 2 Figure 2-6. while the volume of material. Turbine performance has clearly improved and cost per unit of output has been reduced. as illustrated by Figure 2-6.) Although the increase in turbine height is a major reason for the increase in capacity factor over time. Engineers have successfully skirted this law by either removing material or using it more efficiently as they increase size.5 CURRENT TURBINE SIZE Throughout the past 20 years. But with each new generation of wind turbines (roughly every five years). at some size.2. as illustrated in Figures 2-4 and 2-5. This law roughly states that "as a wind turbine rotor grows in size. its energy output increases as the rotor swept area (the diameter squared). A Wind Partnerships for Advanced Component Technology (WindPACT) study has also shown that in recent years. indicating the continued infusion of new technology 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 29 . this long-term drive to develop larger turbines is a direct result of the desire to improve energy capture by accessing the stronger winds at higher elevations. The latest designs continue to fall below the cubic line of the previous generation. increases as the cube of the diameter. demonstrating how successive generations of blade design have moved off the cubic weight growth curve to keep weight down (see Figure 2-7). blade mass has been scaling at an exponent of about 2.2.2. there are economic and logistical constraints to this continued growth to larger sizes. making scaling a losing economic game. and therefore its mass and cost." In other words. average wind turbine ratings have grown almost linearly.3 as opposed to the expected 3 (Ashwill 2004).2.
1 m high by 2. If advanced RD&D were to result in even better design methods. mobilization. Typically.52 m/s to 13. Overall widths should remain within 3. Once turbines arrive at their destination. These dimension limits have the most impact on the base diameter of wind turbine towers.83 m in height trigger expensive rerouting to avoid obstructions and often require utility and law enforcement assistance along the roadways. Cost-effective road transportation is achieved by remaining within standard over-the-road trailer dimensions of 4. Transportation weights are less of an issue in rail transportation with GVW limits of up to 360. a modern turbine will cut in and begin to produce power at a wind speed of about 5.Figure 2-7. cranes with large lifting capacities are difficult to transport and require large crews. As the height of the lift to install the rotor and nacelle on the tower increases. It will reach its rated power at about 12.41 m/s.2.0 m. their physical installation poses other practical constraints that limit their size.000 lb).6 m wide and a gross vehicle weight (GVW) under 80. Land transportation constraints can also limit wind turbine growth for turbines installed on land. 2.000 lb (Ashwill 2004). and demobilization costs. In addition. Loads that exceed 4. Crane requirements are quite stringent because of the large nacelle mass in combination with the height of the lift and the required boom extension. which translates to a cargo weight of about 42. leading to high operation. the number of available cranes with the capability to make this lift is fairly limited. continuing to innovate around this size limit would be possible.37 m/s (see Figure 2-8 below).5-MW turbines are installed on 80-m towers to maximize energy capture. the control system 30 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Growth in blade weight 2 into blade design.35 m/s. Operating large cranes in rough or complex hilly terrain can also require repeated disassembly to travel between turbine sites (NREL 2002). where the pitch control system begins to limit power output and prevent generator and drivetrain overload.000 pounds (lb. Rail transportation is even more dimensionally limited by tunnel and overpass widths and heights.6 CURRENT STATUS OF TURBINE COMPONENTS The Rotor Typically. 1. At around 22.4 m and heights are limited to 4. as well as new materials and manufacturing methods that allow the entire turbine to scale as the diameter squared.
Designers are also starting to work with lighter and stronger carbon fiber in highly stressed locations to stiffen blades and improve fatigue resistance while reducing weight. Modern utility-scale wind turbines generally extract about 50% of the energy in this stream below the rated wind speed. The job of the rotor is to operate at the absolute highest efficiency possible between cut-in and rated wind speeds. 2008).pitches the blades to stop rotation. By designing custom airfoils for wind turbines. Pitching the blades out of high winds also reduces operating loads. Building a wall would stop the air at the wall. the winds are lighter so design loads can be relaxed and longer blades can be used to harvest more energy in lower winds. Although these airfoils were primarily developed to help optimize low-speed wind aerodynamics to maximize energy production while limiting loads. this maximum is known as the Betz Limit. however. developers have improved blades over the past 20 years. Additionally. a device that does not slow the air is not extracting any energy either. this pitch system operates as the primary safety system because any one of the three independent actuators is capable of stopping the machine in an emergency. On the other end of the spectrum. more energetic air can enter the device. that is. The older generation of constant-speed rotors sometimes had instantaneous power spikes up to twice the rated power. no new. Rigorous evaluation using the latest computer analysis tools have improved blade designs. The maximum energy that can be extracted from a fluid stream by a device with the same working area as the stream cross section is 59% of the energy in the stream. Most of the rotors on today's large-scale machines have an individual mechanism for pitch control. compared to the maximum energy that a device can theoretically extract. (Carbon fiber. some air must remain in motion after extraction. and to stop the machine in extreme winds. This sensitivity reduction greatly improves blade efficiency (Cohen et al. which is 59% of the energy stream (see The Betz Limit sidebar). but the free stream of energetic air would just flow around the wall. Otherwise. the mechanism rotates the blade about its long axis to control the power in high winds. costs about 10 times as much as fiberglass. they also help prevent sensitivity to blade fouling that is caused by dirt and bug accumulation on the leading edge. Current turbine blade designs are also being customized for specific wind classes. so do their blades—from about 8 m long in 1980 to more than 40 m for many land-based commercial systems and more than 60 m for offshore applications. and the combination of pitchable blades with a variable-speed generator allows the turbine to maintain generation at a constant rated power output. This device is a significant improvement over the first generation of fixed-pitch or collective-pitch linkages because the blades can now be rotated in high winds to feather them out of the wind. In lower energy sites. Even though blade design 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 31 . feathering the blades to prevent overloads and damage to the turbine's components. The Betz Limit 2 Not all of the energy present in a stream of moving air can be extracted. enabling weight growth to be kept to a much lower rate than simple geometric scaling (see Figure 2-7). Because it was first derived by wind turbine pioneer Albert Betz.) Using lighter blades reduces the load-carrying requirements for the entire supporting structure and saves total cost far beyond the material savings of the blades alone. Blades As wind turbines grow in size. to hold the power transmitted to the drivetrain at the rated power when the winds go higher. This reduces the maximum loads on the system when the machine is parked.
and power conversion voltage and phase. Now. Controls Today's controllers integrate signals from dozens of sensors to control rotor speed. Most turbines currently operate in variable-speed mode. Typical power output versus wind speed curve 2 methods have improved significantly. and the control system regulates the rotor speed to obtain peak efficiency in fluctuating winds.Figure 2-8. the grid rules required that wind turbines go offline when any grid event was in progress. Research into the use of advanced control methods to reduce turbulence-induced loads and increase energy capture is an active area of work. Operating in variable-speed mode requires the use of power converters. Electrical controls with power electronics enable machines to deliver fault-ride through control. It does this by continuously updating the rotor speed and generator loading to maximize power and reduce drivetrain transient torque loads. particularly in the area of dynamic load control and cost reduction. such as shutting down the turbine when extreme conditions are encountered. there is still much room for improvement. which offer additional benefits (discussed in the next subsection). more than 8% nationally in Germany. the rules are being changed (Wiser and Bolinger. Grid rules on both continents are requiring more support and fault-ride-through protection from the wind generation component. blade pitch angle. and more than 20% of the average generation in Denmark. generator torque. 2007). In the early days of grid-connected wind generators. voltage control. and volt-ampere-reactive (VAR) support to the grid. Current electrical control systems are filling this need with wind plants carefully engineered for local grid conditions 32 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . with penetration of wind energy approaching 10% in some regions of the United States. The controller is also responsible for critical safety decisions.
real-world operating experience. Wind turbines. Generators are either squirrel-cage induction or woundrotor induction. Balance of Station The balance of the wind farm station consists of turbine foundations. As a result of fleet-wide gearbox maintenance issues and related failures with some designs in the past. Most applications for electrical drives are aimed at using electricity to produce torque instead of using torque to produce electricity. The applications that generate electricity from torque usually operate at a constant rated power. and engineering permits. maintenance buildings. supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. wind systems can afford inefficiencies at high power. 2 Torque has historically been converted to electrical power by using a speedincreasing gearbox and an induction generator. must generate at all power levels and spend a substantial amount of time at low power levels. Generally. it has become standard practice to perform extensive dynamometer testing of new gearbox configurations to prove durability and reliability before they are introduced into serial production. in which the rotor's variable frequency electrical output is fed into the collection system through a solid-state power converter. Balance-of-station components contribute about 20% to the installed cost of a wind plant. with some newer machines using the doubly fed induction design for variable speed. The major tower variable is the height. The Tower The tower configuration used almost exclusively in turbines today is a steel monopole on a concrete foundation that is custom designed for the local site conditions.The Drivetrain (Gearbox. power-conditioning equipment. Many current megawatt-scale turbines use a three-stage gearbox consisting of varying arrangements of planetary gears and parallel shafts. access and service roads. Generator. on the other hand. but 100-m towers are being used more frequently. Full power conversion and synchronous machines are drawing interest because of their fault ride-through and other grid support capacities. but they require maximum efficiency at low power—just the opposite of almost all other electrical applications in existence. For wind systems. a turbine will be placed on a 60-m to 80-m tower. the tower height is selected to optimize energy capture with respect to the cost of the tower. it is simply not critical for the generation system to be efficient in above-rated winds in which the rotor is letting energy flow through to keep the power down to the rated level. Therefore. There is a broad consensus that wind turbine drivetrain technology will evolve significantly in the next several years to reduce weight and cost and improve reliability. service equipment. the electrical collection system. Efforts to develop advanced tower configurations that are less costly and more easily transported and installed are ongoing. The long-term reliability of the current generation of megawatt-scale drivetrains has not yet been fully verified with long-term. Unlike most electrical machines. wind generators must operate at the highest possible aerodynamic and electrical efficiencies in the low-power/low-wind region to squeeze every kilowatthour out of the available energy. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 33 . Depending on the wind characteristics at the site. and Power Converter) Generating electricity from the wind places an unusual set of requirements on electrical systems.
34 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Availability. modern equipment operation costs have been reduced for the initial operating years. O&M data from the technology installed well before 2000 show relatively high annual costs that increase with the age of the equipment. the O&M costs can be a significant portion of the price paid for wind-generated electricity. Since the late 1990s. larger rotors. progress can be made even if only some of the technology innovations are achieved.3 TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENTS ON THE HORIZON Technology improvements can help meet the cost and performance challenges embedded in this 20% Wind Scenario. This is one area where experience in managing large numbers of very large machines has paid off. and continuing progress through the design and manufacturing learning curve. These data indicate the potential for improving reliability and reducing maintenance costs (Walford 2006). is now more than 95% and often reported to exceed 98%. By combining a number of specific technological innovations. Figure 2-9 shows annual O&M expenses by wind project age and equipment installation year. The 20% Wind Scenario does not require success in all areas.Operations and Availability Operating and maintenance (O&M) costs have also dropped significantly since the 1980s as a result of improved designs and increased quality. 2. No single component or design innovation can fulfill the need for technology improvement. Annual O&M costs are reported to be as high as $30-$50/MWh for wind power plants with 1980s technology. Operation and maintenance costs for large-scale wind plants installed within the last 10 years for the early years of operation (Wiser and Bolinger 2007) SCADA systems are being used to monitor very large wind farms and dispatch maintenance personnel rapidly and efficiently. Whether annual operation costs grow as these modern turbines age is yet to be determined and will depend greatly on the quality of these new machines. defined as the fraction of time during which the equipment is ready to operate. 2 Figure 2-9. however. The required technological improvements are relatively straightforward: taller towers. Relative to wind power prices shown in Figure 2-5. whereas the latest generation of turbines has reported annual O&M costs below $10/MWh (Wiser and Bolinger 2007). the industry can introduce new advanced architectures necessary for success.
The Rotor The number one target for advancement is the means by which the energy is initially captured—the rotor. The risk of introducing new technology at the same time that manufacturing production is scaling up and accelerating to unprecedented levels is not trivial. Innovation always carries risk.2. The second approach lies in an active control that senses rotor loads and actively suppresses the loads transferred from the rotor to the rest of the turbine structure. the blade would incur greater structural loads because of its weight and longer moment arm. No indicators currently suggest that rotor design novelties are on their way. thereby increasing the capacity factor (Ashwill 2004).1 FUTURE IMPROVEMENTS TO TURBINE COMPONENTS Many necessary technological advances are already in the active development stages. Although this is still considered a very high-risk option because of the difficulty of building such a blade without excessive weight.3. Because high-performance materials such as carbon fibers are more expensive. it does provide a completely different path to a very high capacity factor (EUI 2003). Boise. Before turbine manufacturers can stake the next product on a new feature. Blades Larger rotors with longer blades sweep a greater area. but have yet to be demonstrated in fullscale operation. the performance of that innovation needs to be firmly established and the durability needs to be characterized as well as possible. Another innovation already being evaluated at a smaller scale by Energy Unlimited Inc. including extensive component and prototype testing before deployment. enhanced energy capture. These improvements will allow the rotor to grow larger and capture more energy without changing the balance of the system. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 35 . The first approach is to use the blades themselves to attenuate both gravity. however. In addition. They will also improve energy capture for a given capacity. Blade weight and resultant gravity-induced loads can be controlled by using advanced materials with higher strength-to-weight ratios. These innovative airfoil shapes hold the promise of maintaining excellent power performance.and turbulence-driven loads (see the Blades subsection that follows). Such a rotor has a large area to capture more energy in low winds and a system to reduce the size of the rotor to protect the system in high winds. Simply lengthening a blade without changing the fundamental design. 2 The following are brief summaries of key wind energy technologies that are expected to increase productivity through better efficiency. but there are considerable incentives to use better materials and innovative controls to build enlarged rotors that sweep a greater area for the same or lower loads. These risks are mitigated by RD&D investment. (EUI. Idaho) is a variable-diameter rotor that could significantly increase capacity factor. increasing energy capture. Substantial research progress has been documented and individual companies are beginning the development process for these technologies. and improved reliability. they would be included in the design only when the payoff is maximized. Two approaches are being developed and tested to either reduce load levels or create load-resistant designs. would make the blade much heavier.
Twist-flap coupled blade design (material-based twist coupling) To reduce transportation costs. Yet another approach to achieving flap-pitch coupling is to build the blade in a curved shape (see Figure 2-11) so that the aerodynamic loads apply a twisting action to the blade. By carefully tailoring the structural properties of the blade using the unique attributes of composite materials. reducing the lift as wind gusts begin to load the blade and therefore passively reducing the fatigue loads.Figure 2-10. is accomplished by orienting the fiberglass and carbon plies within the composite layers of the blade. Figure 2-11. It might also be possible to segment molds and move them into temporary buildings close to the site of a major wind installation so that the blades can be made close to or actually at the wind site. illustrated in Figure 2-10. the internal structure of the blade can be built in a way that allows the outer portion of the blade to twist as it bends (Griffin 2001). the resulting twisting changes the angle of attack over much of the blade. Curvature-based twist coupling 2 One elegant concept is to build passive means of reducing loads directly into the blade structure. concepts such as on-site manufacturing and segmented blades are also being explored. If properly designed. which varies the angle of attack as the aerodynamic loads fluctuate. "Flap-pitch" or "bend-twist" coupling. 36 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
can be employed to alleviate the buckling constraint. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 37 . The tall tower dilemma can be further mitigated with smarter controls that attenuate tower motion by using blade pitch and generator torque control. low-maintenance system. but rather of doing the hard work of mitigating the innovation risk by demonstrating reliable application through prototype testing and demonstration. but taller towers will inevitably cost more. Actuators and controllers already exist that can achieve most of the promised load reductions to enable larger rotors and taller towers. carbon fiber) in the tower are being investigated. Additionally. it is highly likely that this component will be examined more closely in the future. There is also concern that the increased control activity will accelerate wear on the pitch mechanism. a 10% increase in wind speed produces about a 33% increase in available power. Such investigations could bear fruit if there are significant adjustments in material costs. Sensors capable of acting as the eyes and ears of the control system will need to have sufficient longevity to monitor a highreliability. more slender structure. New tower erection technologies might play a role in O&M that could also help drive down the system COE (NREL 2002). power fluctuations. Unfortunately.Active Controls Active controls using independent blade pitch and generator torque can be used to reduce tower-top motion. raising labor costs as well as concerns about fastener reliability and corrosion. On-site assembly allows for larger diameters but also increases the number of joints and fasteners. But because placing the rotor at a higher elevation is beneficial and because the cost of steel continues to rise rapidly. The main design impact of taller towers is not on the tower itself. Turbines could sit on even taller towers than those in current use if engineers can figure out how to make them with less steel. New tower wall topologies. Tower diameters greater than approximately 4 m would incur severe overland transportation cost penalties. tower wall thickness cannot be decreased without limit. mining upward into these rich veins of higher wind speed potentially has a high payoff—for example. especially for regions of higher than average wind shear. asymmetric rotor loads. but on the dynamics of a system with the bulk of its mass atop a longer. they are still rarely seen in commercial applications.. and even individual blade loads.g. engineers must adhere to certain minima to avoid buckling. Thus. tower diameter and material requirements conflict directly with tower design goals—a larger diameter is beneficial because it spreads out the load and actually requires less material because its walls are thinner. which is one of the more mundane components of a wind installation. Active controls that damp out tower motion might be another enabling technology. the technical innovation that is essential to enabling some of the most dramatic improvements in performance is not a matter of exploring the unknown. Some tower motion controls are already in the research pipeline. Options for using materials other than steel (e. Reducing tower-top weight improves the dynamics of such a flexible system. Because power is related to the cube of wind speed. In addition. 2 Towers To date there has been little innovation in the tower. such as corrugation. some have published control algorithms that could achieve the load reductions in the research literature (Bossanyi 2003). Although both approaches have been demonstrated.
Behnke. or both. gearbox reliability is a major issue and gearbox replacement is quite expensive. and improves reliability by employing inherent redundancies. California. which enhances reliability by reducing the parts count. Direct-drive systems also meet this goal by eliminating gear losses. which was successfully adopted in the 1990s by EnerconGmbH (Aurich. Peregrine Power (Wilsonville. these losses add up to significant numbers. which divides mechanical power among four generators (see Figure 2-12). Distributed Energy Systems (Wallingford. and Whitaker Engineering 2006) shows that using medium-voltage power systems for multimegawatt turbines could reduce the cost. New circuit topologies could furnish better control of power quality. This approach. however. A less radical alternative reduces the number of stages in the gearbox from three to two or even one. Germany). eases erection and maintenance demands. The use of rare-earth permanent magnets in generator rotors instead of wound rotors also has several advantages. When summed over the entire system. formerly Northern Power Systems) has built an advanced prototype power electronics system that will deliver lower losses and conversion costs for permanent-magnet generators (Northern Power Systems 2006). and shrink components by orders of magnitude (Peregrine Power 2006). California) did with its highly innovative multiple-drive-path gearbox. lowering cost. and reduces electrical losses. which reduces gearbox weight and size. and increase overall converter efficiency. but opportunities for significant improvement remain. These improvements could include innovative power-electronic architectures and largescale use of permanent-magnet generators. Modular (transportable) versions of these large generation systems that are easier to maintain will go a long way toward increasing the productivity of the low-wind portion of the power curve. without permanently degrading magnetic field strength. High energy density eliminates much of the weight associated with copper windings. 38 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . as Clipper Windpower (Carpinteria.The Drivetrain (Gearbox. however. 2 Currently. enable higher voltages to be used. improve reliability. Rare-earth magnets cannot be subjected to elevated temperatures. One solution is a direct-drive power train that entirely eliminates the gearbox. Oregon) has concluded that using SiC devices would reduce power losses. New silicon carbide (SiC) devices entering the market could allow operation at higher temperature and higher frequency. Power electronics have already achieved elevated performance and reliability levels. Availability of rare-earth permanent magnets is a potential concern because key raw materials are not available in significant quantities within the United States (see Chapter 3). The multiple-drive-path design radically decreases individual gearbox component loads. and other electrical devices are individually quite small. which imposes corresponding demands on generator cooling reliability. Erdman. Connecticut. Generator. and Power Conversion) Parasitic losses in generator windings. gears and bearings. The fundamental gearbox topology can also be improved. eliminates problems associated with insulation degradation and shorting. while improving reliability. power electronics. weight. is being examined by other turbine manufacturers. A study completed by BEW Engineering (San Ramon. Improvements that remove or reduce the fixed losses during low power generation are likely to have an important impact on raising the capacity factor and reducing cost. and volume of turbine electrical components as well as reduce electrical losses.
but will also carry a share of power control capability for the grid. and 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 39 . Plants can be designed so that they furnish a measure of dispatch capability. Paying for this trade-off will require either a lower capital cost for the hardware. Wind plants might transition. a combination of the two. the more proficient and efficient the industry becomes.3. external factors. Future plants will not only support the grid by delivering fault-ride-through capability as well as frequency.3.Figure 2-12. Clipper Windpower multiple-drive-path gearbox 2 The most dramatic change in the long-term application of wind generation may come from the grid support provided by the wind plant. defined as the ratio of the cost after doubling cumulative production to the cost before doubling. and VAR control. voltage. The learning curve is often measured by calculating the progress ratio. then.1) and reduce capital costs. The more engineers and manufacturers learn by conducting effective RD&D and producing greater volumes of wind energy equipment. from a simple energy source to a power plant that delivers significant grid support. These plants would be operated below their maximum power rating most of the time and would trade some energy capture for grid ancillary services. or optimally. The progress ratio for wind energy from 1984 to 2000 was calculated for the high volume of machines installed in several European countries that experienced a healthy combination of steadily growing manufacturing output.2 LEARNING-CURVE EFFECT Progressing along the design and manufacturing learning curve allows engineers to develop technology improvements (such as those listed in Section 2. contractual arrangements that will pay for grid services at a high enough rate to offset the energy loss. carrying out some of the traditional duties of conventional power plants. 2.
2. has already been harvested. The assumption in the 20% Wind Scenario is that a 10% reduction in capital cost could accelerate large-scale deployment. Based on machine performance and cost.8% is required to produce a learning effect of 10% with the 4. summarized in Table 2-1. Germany (94%).S.3 THE SYSTEM BENEFITS OF ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY A cost study conducted by the U.3. Cost of wind turbines delivered from Spain between 1984 and 2000 Note: The Y axis represents cost and is presented in logarithmic units. prices could drop to about 65% of current costs. A range of values represents the best. 40 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Results show that progress ratio estimates were approximately the same for Denmark (91%).research investment during that time. 2 Figure 2-13. O&M. Figure 2-13 shows the data for Spain. Changes in annual energy production are equivalent to changes in capacity factor because the turbine rating was fixed. a progress ratio of only 97. In order to achieve this reduction. a 35% reduction. The results. The data points shown fit the downward-sloping straight line with a correlation coefficient. there is no technical barrier to achieving 10% capital cost reduction. indicate significant potential impacts on annual energy production and capital cost.S. and Spain (91%) (ISET 2003).S. annual energy production. Moving from the current level of installed wind capacity of roughly 12 gigawatts (GW) to the 20% Wind Scenario total of 305 GW will require between four and five doublings of capacity. At the time this report was written.-based manufacturing of wind turbines to determine a U.6 doublings. With sustained manufacturing growth and technological advancement. progress ratio. The industry has progressed from machines based on designs created without any design tools and built almost entirely by hand to the current state of advanced engineering capability. of 0. this study used advanced concepts to suggest pathways that integrate the individual contributions from component-level improvements into system-level estimates of the capital cost. reliability. there was not enough reliable data on U. and balance of station. If the progress ratio of 91% shown in Figure 2-13 continues. and least beneficial outcomes. See Appendix B for further discussion. r2 . most likely. The low-hanging fruit of cost reduction. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind Program identify numerous opportunities for technology advancement to reduce the life-cycle COE (Cohen and Schweizer et al 2008). however.85.
0 doublings in the reference to the 4.The Table 2-1 capacity factor improvement of 11% that results from taller towers reflects the increase in wind resources at a hub height of 120 m. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 41 . the added costs could range from 8% to 20%. initial. or for service +11/+11/+11 +8/+12/+20 Advanced (Enlarged) Rotors * Advanced materials * Improved structural-aero design * Active controls * Passive controls * Higher tip speed/lower acoustics +35/+25/+10 -6/-3/+3 Reduced Energy Losses and Improved Availability * Reduced blade soiling losses * Damage-tolerant sensors * Robust control systems * Prognostic maintenance +7/+5/0 0/0/0 Drivetrain (Gearboxes and Generators and Power Electronics) * Fewer gear stages or direct-drive * Medium/low speed generators * Distributed gearbox topologies * Permanent-magnet generators * Medium-voltage equipment * Advanced gear tooth profiles * New circuit topologies * New semiconductor devices * New materials ( gallium arsenide [GaAs]. Uncertainty in these capacity factor improvements are reflected in the table below. An advantage would come from a system design in which the tower head mass is significantly reduced with the integration of a rotor and drivetrain that are significantly lighter.6 doublings in the 20% Wind Scenario. conservatively assuming the standard wind shear distribution meteorologists use for open country. Depending on the success of new tower technology. incremental design and process improvements * Large-scale manufacturing * Reduced design loads 0/0/0 -27/-13/-3 +61/+45/+21 -36/-10/+21 Technical Area Potential Advances Totals *The learning curve results from the NREL report (Cohen and Schweizer et al 2008) are adjusted from 3. Areas of potential technology improvement Performance and Cost Increments (Best/Expected/Least Percentages) Annual Energy Production Turbine Capital Cost Advanced Tower Concepts * Taller towers in difficult locations * New materials and/or processes * Advanced structures/foundations * Self-erecting. 2 The capital cost reduction shown for the drivetrain components is mainly attributed to the reduced requirements on the structure when lighter components are placed on the tower top. SiC) +8/+4/0 -11/-6/+1 Manufacturing and Learning Curve* * Sustained. Performance increases as parasitic losses in mechanical and electrical components are reduced. but there will definitely be an added cost if the tower is the only component in the system that is modified to take the rotor to higher elevations. Such components are designed specifically to optimize the Table 2-1.
Although it was known that higher operating temperatures would lead to higher efficiency. In the past. These improvements are expected to be in the single digits at best. Although these changes do not target any added energy capture. which improved the industry efficiency standard—that had been capped at 50%—to almost 60%.6 doublings of cumulative capacity rather than the 3. 2 Without changing the location of the rotor. Doubling the number of manufactured turbines several times over the years will produce a manufacturing learning-curve effect that can also help reduce costs.0 doublings used in the reference targeted at the year 2012. high-potential technologies into the marketplace.performance for wind turbine characteristics. DOE invested $100 million in the H-system turbine and General Electric (GE) invested $500 million. passive load attenuation. The most likely 13% cost reduction assumes a conservative progress ratio of 97% per doubling of capacity. there are a range of possible outcomes. The potential technological advances outlined here support the technical feasibility of the 20% Wind Scenario by outlining several possible pathways to a substantial increase in capacity factor accompanied by a modest but double-digit reduction in capital cost. the risk of implementing them has not yet been reduced to the level that allows those improvements to be used in commercial hardware. The issues are well known and offer an opportunity for focused RD&D efforts.3. The improvements shown in Table 2-1 are in the single digits but not trivial. However. The only adjustment from the NREL (Cohen and Schweizer et al 2008) reference is that the 20% Wind Scenario by 2030 requires 4. 2. there were no materials for the turbine blades that 42 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . It is also possible to mitigate losses resulting from degradation of performance caused by wear and dirt over time. The learning-curve effects shown in Table 2-1 are limited to manufacturing-related technology improvements and do not reflect issues of component selection and design.3. the learning curve reflects efficiencies driven by volume production and manufacturing experience as well as the infusion of manufacturing technology and practices that encourage more manufacturing-friendly design in the future. they are expected to result in continuous cost reductions. A 10% to 35% increase in capacity factor is produced by 5% to 16% longer blades for the same rated power output. and active controls. it is estimated that this magnitude of blade growth can be achieved in combination with a modest system cost reduction. As discussed in Section 2. Improved O&M techniques and monitoring capabilities can reduce downtime for repairs and scheduled maintenance.4 TARGETED RD&D While there is an expected value to potential technology improvements. energy capture can also be increased by using longer blades to sweep more area. Technology advances can also reduce energy losses in the field. With the potential of new structurally efficient airfoils. with an approximate 5% improvement in lifetime energy capture. new materials.2. One example of such collaboration is the advanced natural gas turbine. government and industry collaboration has been successful in moving high-risk. Building these longer blades at an equal or lower cost is a challenge because blade weight must be capped while turbulence-driven loads remain no greater than what the smaller rotor can handle.
Industry feels the risk of bringing new technology into the marketplace without a full-scale development program is too great and believes sustained RD&D would help reduce risk and help enable the transfer of new technology to the marketplace.4 ADDRESSING TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RISKS Risks tend to lessen industry's desire to invest in wind technology. the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).4. Some might claim that wind technology is a finished product that no longer needs additional RD&D.could withstand the environment.89 m in diameter. the impacts are said to be direct. Already. controls.000 lb. The project produced the world's largest single crystal turbine blades capable of resisting high-temperature cracking. The practical side is so complex and forces are so dramatic. A technology that would have been too high risk for the individual companies to develop was bridged into the marketplace through a cooperative RD&D effort by NASA.1 DIRECT IMPACTS When owners of wind manufacturing and operating capabilities directly bear the costs of failure. there is a clear understanding of the materials. which is still being improved after a century of generating electricity. and weighs more than 811. The Adam aircraft A500 turboprop and the A700 very light jet are examples of new products based on this composite technology. in terms of generated revenues and operating costs compared with the estimated revenues used in plant financing. The Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE). The resulting "H system" gas turbine is 11. The research program focused on advanced cooling techniques and new alloys to handle combustion that was nearly 300°F hotter. which began in 1994. The reality is that the technology is substantially less developed than fossil energy technology. and aerodynamics issues that must be resolved to make progress toward greater capacity factors.89 m long. solved those problems and opened the door for new composite material technology to be applied to the light-jet application. This direct impact on revenue is often caused by: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 43 . The combination of reduced capital cost and increased capacity factor will lead to reduced COE. industry. We would never have imagined how complex turbines are" (Knight and Harrison 2005). The consequences of these risks directly affect the revenues of owners of wind manufacturing and operating capabilities. 2. 4. The wind plant performance track record. A GE manager who spent a career in the gas turbine business and then transferred to manage the wind turbine business noted the complexity of wind energy technology: "Our respect for wind turbine technology has grown tremendously. but the certification process to characterize the materials was onerous and expensive. and universities. 2. will drive the risk level of future installations. The use of composite materials was known to provide excellent benefits for light-jet airframes. or that all possible improvements have already been made. Each turbine is expected to save more than $200 million in operating costs over its lifetime (DOE 2000). NASA started a program to "reduce the cost of using composites and develop standardized procedures for certifying composite materials" (Brown 2007). 2 A similar example comes from the aviation world.
Some failures can be traced to poor manufacturing or installation quality. unpredictable or unreliable performance would threaten the credibility of this emerging technology in the eyes of financial institutions. Most of these costs are associated with unplanned maintenance or components wearing out before the end of their intended design lives. land and plant maintenance costs increase. many of which are caused by weaknesses in the technology's state of the art. But if they are placed too far apart. The consequences of real or perceived reliability problems would extend beyond the direct cost to the plant owners. there is mounting evidence that O&M costs are increasing as wind farms age. These consequences on the continued growth of investment in wind could include: 44 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and the dashed lines show potential early failures that can significantly increase risk. Figure 2-14. and the risk to the operators grows accordingly. and risk of failure with wind plant age 2.2 INDIRECT IMPACTS Although the wind industry has achieved high levels of wind plant availability and reliability. Poor wind plant array efficiency: If turbines are placed too close together. such losses can mount up to significant sums of lost revenue. The numbers and costs of component failures increase with time. Figures 2-14 and 2-15 show steadily rising O&M costs for wind farms installed in the United States in the two decades before the turn of the century and the components that have caused these increasing costs. likely sources. Others are caused by design errors.z 2 z z Increasing O&M costs: As discussed previously and illustrated in Figure 2-9. Unplanned repair cost.4. In Figure 2-15 the solid lines represent expected repairs that may not be completely avoidable. respectively. Poor availability driven by low reliability: Energy is not generated while components are being repaired or replaced. generally codified by the design process. Although a single failure of a critical component stops production from only one turbine. their wakes interact. which can cause the downwind turbines to perform poorly.
600-740 kW (2002) Annual O&M Cost.5 MW . Loss of public support: If wind power installations do not operate continuously and reliably.5 MW . 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 45 . Each financial institution will assess the risk of investing in wind energy and charge according to those risks.015 0. The public's confidence in the technology is crucial.020 Vachon .Northern Power (2004) 0.2 MW (2002) WindPACT 1. Active technical supporters of RD&D must anticipate and resolve problems before they threaten industry development. these insurance and financing costs could increase. $/kWh 0. Slowing or stopping development: Lost confidence contributed to the halt of development in the United States in the late 1980s through the early 1990s. partnerships working toward a new wind industry future cannot be successful.GEC (2003) WindPACT 1.010 0. the current industry is dominated by European wind turbine companies.005 0. Average O&M costs of wind farms in the United States 0. If wind power loses credibility.600 kW (1999) Vachon .Figure 2-15. Without public support. the public might be easily convinced that renewable energy is not a viable source of energy.000 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Year of Operation z z z Increased cost of insurance and financing: Low interest rates and long-term loans are critical to financing power plants that are loaded with upfront capital costs. As a result.025 2 Lemming & Morthorst . Development did not start again until the robust European market supported the technology improvements necessary to reestablish confidence in reliable European turbines.
and component test results. These tests reveal many design and manufacturing deficiencies that are beyond detection by analytical tools. The American National Standards Institute (ANSI) has designated the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) as the lead organization for the development and publication of industry consensus standards for wind energy equipment and services in the United States. according to a test plan prescribed by international standards. gearboxes. Actively complying with these standards encourages investment in wind energy by ensuring that turbines reliably achieve the maximum energy extraction needed to expand the industry. It includes a detailed review of design analyses. consensus standard developers also require full-scale testing of blades. testing for verification.3 RISK MITIGATION THROUGH CERTIFICATION. These standards. They also provide the final verification that the design process has worked and give the financial community the confidence needed to invest in a turbine model. As turbines grow larger and more products come on the market. The limited availability of facilities and qualified test 46 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . dynamic modeling. Full-scale test facilities and trained test engineers capable of conducting full-scale tests are rare. and disciplined quality control. The wind industry recognizes that analytical reviews are not sufficient to capture weaknesses in the design process.4. and the United States has no facilities that can test blades longer than 50 m. third-party technical audits of a manufacturer's design development. Extensive instrumentation is applied to the machine. New blades are reaching 50 m in length.org/standards). domestic dynamometer facilities capable of testing gearboxes or new drivetrains are limited in capacity to 1.5 MW. which represent the collective experience of the industry's leading experts. and the complete system prototype (see Industry Standards Industry Standards sidebar). Information on these standards can be accessed on AWEA's Web site (http://www. Furthermore. AWEA also participates in the development of international wind energy standards through its representation on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) TC-88 Subcommittee. the wind industry requires turbines to adhere to international standards. The industry and financial communities depend on these facilities and skilled test engineers to support all new turbine component development. Full-Scale Testing Testing standards were drafted to ensure that accredited third-party laboratories are conducting tests consistently.2. These data give the certification agent a means for verifying the accuracy of the design's analytical basis. material selections. AND PERFORMANCE MONITORING 2 To reduce risk. and comprehensive data are recorded over a specified range of operating conditions. Certification Certification involves high-level. VALIDATION.awea. Full-scale prototype tests are conducted in the field at locations with severe wind conditions. Therefore. imply a well-developed design process that relies on the most advanced design tools. test facilities must also grow and become more efficient. The facilities must have equipment capable of applying tremendous loads that mimic the turbulence loading that wind applies over the entire life of the blade or gearbox.
These tests are expensive to conduct and accreditation is expensive to maintain for several reasons. Other industries have established anonymous databases that serve to benchmark their reliability and performance. they are very difficult and expensive to transport on major highways. without these facilities. giving operators both the ability to recognize a drop in reliability and the data they need to determine the source of low reliability.S. Because blades are approaching sizes of half the length of a football field and can weigh more than a 12. which would give O&M managers the tools to recognize and pinpoint drops in reliability.engineers increases the deployment risk of new machines that are not subjected to the rigors of current performance validation in accredited facilities. along with a way to collectively resolve technical problems. Stiesdal and 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 47 . Wind energy history has proven that these kinds of tests are crucial for the industry's success and the financial community's confidence. blade test facilities Although it is very expensive for each manufacturer to develop and maintain facilities of this scale for its own certification testing needs. then. Blade growth and startup dates for U. 2 At full-scale facilities. Figure 2-16 shows the largest blades being built and the approximate dates when U. Reliability databases are an integral part of more sophisticated O&M management tools. First. The magnitude of torque applied to the drivetrains for testing is among the largest of any piece of rotating equipment ever constructed.2-m yacht. Figure 2-16.S. The wind industry needs such a strategically designed database. it is also difficult to conduct tests accurately and capture the operating conditions that are important to verify the machine's reliability. the scale of the components is one of the largest of any commercial industry. These tests. are an essential element of any risk mitigation strategy. blade test facilities were built to accommodate their testing. rapid technological progress will be accompanied by high innovation risk. Performance Monitoring and O&M One of the main elements of power plant management is strategic monitoring of reliability.
offshore wind plants might be necessary to supplement growing demand and dwindling fossil supplies. 2 In mature industries.000 MW by 2015. eight or nine offshore project proposals in state and federal waters total to a capacity of more than 1. These systems will also produce valuable data for improving the next generation of turbine designs. offshore wind resources are the only indigenous energy source capable of making a significant energy contribution. One demonstration project in Scotland is installed in water at a depth of 45 m. If shallow water offshore potential (less than 30 m in depth) is included in the wind resource mix. 28 have a coastal boundary. 2007). though. projections show strong growth in many European Union (EU) markets. electric use data show that these same states use 78% of the nation's electricity (EIA 2006). In many congested energy-constrained regions. Similarly. 26 of the 28 states would have the wind resources to meet at least 20% of their electric needs. Unlike central generation facilities. thereby increasing investor confidence. systems that will aid operators in their quest to maximize plant performance and minimize operating costs through risk mitigation. For example. Two other projects in Texas state waters have already received state approval. Such tools do not currently exist for the wind industry.5 OFFSHORE WIND TECHNOLOGY Offshore wind energy installations have a broadly dispersed. O&M management tools are available to help maximize maintenance efficiency. 2. The resultant deeper understanding will allow expert systems to be developed. 48 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . 2007). In the United States. only 6 have a sufficient land-based wind energy resource to meet more than 20% of their electric requirements through wind power. For most coastal states.S. Although some projects have been hampered by construction overruns and higher than-expected maintenance requirements. U. This requires intimate knowledge of healthy plant operating characteristics and an ability to recognize the characteristics of very complex faults that might be unique to a specific wind plant.143 MW now operate in Europe. and their development will require RD&D to study wind plant systems interacting with complex atmospheric conditions and to model the interactions. Twenty-six offshore wind projects with an installed capacity of roughly 1.Madsen (2005) describe how databases can be used for managing O&M and improving future designs. German offshore development is expected to reach 5. abundant resource and the economic potential for cost competitiveness that would allow them to make a large impact in meeting the future energy needs of the United States (Musial. Of these 28 states.500 MW. Two of these proposed projects are being treated separately by the Minerals Management Service (MMS) because the permits were submitted before MMS authority was established by the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005 (MMS).600 MW by 2014 (BSH & BWEA). Of the contiguous 48 states. with many states having sufficient offshore wind resources to meet 100% of their electric needs (Musial. Most projects were installed in water less than 22 m deep. Achieving this efficiency is a key factor in minimizing the COE and maximizing the life of wind plants. it is estimated that offshore wind capacity in the United Kingdom will grow by 8. wind plants require maintenance strategies that minimize human attention and maximize remote health monitoring and automated fault data diagnosis.
Because offshore wind energy tends to take advantage of extensive land-based experience and mature offshore oil and gas practices. tempering the advantage of tower height. The power grid connects the output from each turbine. forthcoming 2008.1 COST OF ENERGY The current installed capital cost of offshore projects is estimated in the range of $2. However. The offshore foundation system baseline technology uses monopiles at nominal water depths of 20 m. A shore-based interconnection point might be used to step up the voltage again before connecting to the power grid. Turbines are spaced to minimize aggregate power plant energy losses. The drivetrain consists of a gearbox generally run with variablespeed torque control that can achieve generator speeds between 1. The distribution system collects the power from each turbine at a central substation where the voltage is stepped up and transmitted to shore through a number of buried. so it does have significant potential for future cost reduction. offshore wind technology is considerably less mature than land-based wind energy. The offshore tower height is generally 80 m. which is lower than that of landbased towers because wind shear profiles are less steep. the two leading suppliers of offshore wind turbines.5. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 49 .000 and 1. Turbines in offshore applications are arranged in arrays that take advantage of the prevailing wind conditions measured at the site. Germany). Denmark) and Siemens (Munich. range from 2. where turbine transformers step up the generator and the power electronics voltage to a distribution voltage of about 34 kilovolts (kV). interior plant turbulence. high-voltage subsea cables. Its foundation requires a specific class of installation equipment for driving the pile into the seabed and lifting the turbine and tower into place.5.2 2 CURRENT TECHNOLOGY Today's baseline technology for offshore wind turbines is essentially a version of the standard land-based turbine adapted to the marine environment. which have speeds of 80 m/s or more. and the cost of cabling between turbines. implementation and customization of offshore oil and gas practices. Mobilization of the infrastructure and logistical support for a large offshore wind plant accounts for a significant portion of the system cost. These cost reductions are achievable through technology development and innovation. The monopile extends above the surface where a transition piece with a flange to fasten the tower is leveled and grouted. 2. Monopiles are large steel tubes with a wall thickness of up to 60 mm and diameters of 6 m. Tip speeds of offshore turbines are slightly higher than those of land-based turbines.6 MW. offshore cost reductions are not expected to be as great as land-based reductions spanning the past two decades. most recent orders from Vestas (Randers. Although turbines of up to 5 MW have been installed. typically 90 m to 107 m in diameter. but a typical North Sea installation must be embedded 25 m to 30 m below the mud line.800 rpm. Pace Global 2007).2. The architecture of the baseline offshore turbine and drivetrain comprises a threebladed upwind rotor.400 to $5000 per kW (Black and Veatch. and learningcurve reductions that take advantage of more efficient manufacturing and deployment processes and procedures.0 MW to 3. The embedment depth varies with soil type.
Because there is a high degree of interdependence among them. and methods: The design tools that the wind industry uses today have been developed and validated for 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . the focus must be on lowering the balance-of-station costs. The commercialization of offshore wind energy faces many technical. Technical research. and Kempton 2006). These paths should not be considered as mutually exclusive choices. the net result will lower overall system costs. Turbine improvements that make turbines more reliable.5. some of which may be mitigated through targeted short. whereas on land. analysis. and larger. and political barriers. wind turbine cost represents only one-third of the total installed cost of the wind project. and could include the following tasks: z z z 50 Define offshore resource exclusion zones: A geographically based exclusion study using geographic information system (GIS) land use overlays would more accurately account for all existing and future marine uses and sensitive areas. This activity should be a jointly funded industry project conducted on a regional basis. This type of exclusion study could be part of a regional programmatic environmental impact statement and is necessary for a full assessment of the offshore resource (Dhanju. electrical grids. regulatory. the turbine cost represents more than half of the total installed cost.3 TECHNOLOGY NEEDS AND POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS Offshore. socioeconomic. which include those for foundations. Currently. Long-term research involves a more complex development process resulting in improvements that can help lower offshore life-cycle system costs. more rugged. then. and testing are needed to build confidence that safety will be adequate and to prevent overcautiousness that will increase costs unnecessarily. more maintainable. Whitaker. the developer bears the burden of siting during a pre-permitting phase with very little official guidance. This research should address obstacles to today's projects. These costs. Short-Term RD&D Options Conducting research that will lead to more rapid deployment of offshore turbines should be an upfront priority for industry. Develop certification methods and standards: MMS has been authorized to define the structural safety standards for offshore wind turbines on the OCS. Short-term research addresses impediments that are preventing initial industry projects from proceeding and helps to sharpen the focus for long-term research. dominate the system COE. MMS is currently determining the most relevant standards. 2 2. O&M. Develop design codes. tools.Shallow water wind turbine projects have been proposed and could be followed by transitional and finally deepwater turbines. will still be needed to achieve cost goals. Although none of these improvements is likely to lower turbine costs. and installation and staging costs. To lower costs for offshore wind. Development of these standards will require a complete evaluation and harmonization of the existing offshore wind standards and the American Petroleum Institute (API) offshore oil and gas standards. they should be considered a sequence of development that builds from a shallow water foundation of experience and knowledge to the complexities of deeper water.and long-range RD&D efforts.
These data can be combined to supplement the characterization of coastal and offshore wind regimes (Hasager et al. These requirements must be taken into account to optimize offshore deployment. Although land-based wind turbine designs can generally be used for offshore deployment. Atmospheric boundary layer interaction with the turbine wakes can affect both energy capture and plant-generated turbulence. Offshore wind plants can lose more than 10% of their energy to array losses. Develop hybrid wind-speed databases: Wind. as well as for each individual turbine. Floating system analysis must be able to account for additional turbine motions as well as the dynamic characterization of mooring lines. Most long-term research areas relate to lowering offshore life-cycle system costs. Because this is a relatively new technology path. Wind plant design tools that are able to characterize turbulence generated by wind plants under a wide range of conditions are likely necessary. Accurate characterization of the atmospheric boundary layer behavior and more accurate wake models will be essential for designing turbines that can withstand offshore wind plant turbulence. and other weather data are housed in numerous satellite databases available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). One major challenge is predicting loads and the resulting dynamic responses of the wind turbine support structure when it is subjected to combined wave and wind loading. the offshore environment will impose special requirements on turbines. there are major opportunities for reducing the cost impacts in this area. Areas where industry should focus efforts include: 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 51 . z z 2 Site turbines and configure arrays: The configuration and spacing of wind turbines within an array have a marked effect on power production from the aggregate wind plant. Offshore design tools are relatively immature by comparison. Long-Term R&D Options Long-term research generally requires hardware development and capital investment. Uncertainties in power production represent a large economic risk factor for offshore development.land-based utility-scale turbines. which is a unique problem for offshore wind installations. but improvements in array layout and array optimization models could deliver substantial recovery (Seawind 2003). NASA. 2005). and it must take a complex development path that begins early so that mature technology will be ready when it is needed. The limitations and availability of existing offshore data must be understood. The development of accurate offshore computer codes to predict the dynamic forces and motions acting on turbines deployed at sea is essential for moving into deeper water. These areas are subdivided into infrastructure and turbine-specific needs. the National Weather Service (NWS). Infrastructure to support offshore wind development represents a major cost element. and other government agencies. sea-surface temperatures. Application of these data to improve the accuracy of offshore wind maps will also be important. These offshore design tools must be validated to ensure that they can deal with the combined dominance of simultaneous wind and wave load spectra. and the maturity and reliability of the tools have led to significantly higher confidence in today's wind turbines.
Use resource modeling and remote profiling systems: Offshore winds are much more difficult to characterize than winds over land. anchors. land-based assembly. and remote inspections and diagnostics can be rebalanced with respect to upfront capital enhancements. such as higher quality assurance. installation and deployment strategies: New manufacturing processes and improvements in existing processes that reduce labor and material usage and improve part quality have high potential for reducing costs in offshore installations. Fixed-bottom systems comprising rigid lightweight substructures. In addition. planned. and managed. Offshore wind turbines and components could be constructed and assembled in or near seaport facilities that allow easy access from the production area to the installation site. intelligent. These systems can alert operators to the need for operational changes or to schedule maintenance at the most opportune times. turbine condition monitoring and self-diagnostic systems. eliminating the necessity of shipping large components over inland roadways. Floating platforms will require a new generation of mooring designs that can be mass produced and easily installed. Analytical models are essential to managing risk during the initial 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . minimize downtime.z 2 z z z z 52 Minimize work at sea: There are many opportunities to lower project costs by reallocating the balance between work done on land and at sea. and integrated mooring and piling deployment systems that minimize dependence on large sea vessels are possible low-cost options. Develop low-cost foundations. land-based installation and assembly. more qualification testing. Incorporate offshore service and accessibility features: To manage O&M. as well as for existing shallow-water designs in which value-engineering cost reductions can be achieved. predict weather windows. Enhance manufacturing. Offshore system designs that can be floated out and installed without large cranes can reduce costs significantly. This rebalancing might enable a significant life-cycle cost reduction by shifting the way wind projects are designed. automated mass-production fabrication facilities. and moorings: Current shallow-water foundations have already reached a practical depth limit of 30 m. and reduce the equipment needed for up-tower repairs. and anchor systems beyond that are derived from conservative and expensive oil and gas design practices. the portion of labor devoted to project O&M. Fabrication facilities must be strategically located for mass-production. and reliable designs. A warning about an incipient failure can alert the operators to replace or repair a component before it does significant damage to the system or leaves the machine inoperable for an extended period of time. and for rapid deployment with minimal dependence on large vessels. Costsaving opportunities arise for wind power plants in deeper water with both fixed-bottom and floating turbine foundations. Poulsen and Skjærbæk 2005). operators should be equipped with remote. New strategies should be integrated into the turbine design process at an early stage (Lindvig 2005. More accurate weather forecasting will also become a major contributor in optimizing service for lower cost.
and inspection will need heightened emphasis. quality control. "Within a few years. 2005). Some systems are currently under development but have not yet been proven (Antoniou et al. corrosion. including rotor blades. Assess the potential of ultra-large offshore turbines: Land-based turbines may have reached a size plateau because of transportation and erection limits. z z 2 Increase offshore turbine reliability: The current offshore service record is mixed. and appropriately implementing design improvements (Stiesdal and Madsen 2005). These technologies include lightweight composite materials and composite manufacturing. light detection and ranging (LIDAR). but are not very useful by themselves for micrositing (Jimenez et al. is a large contributor to high risk. testing. lightweight drivetrains. This will require new equipment such as sonic detection and ranging (SODAR). and extreme weather. modular pole direct-drive generators. According to a report on the EU-funded UpWind project. Research that improves land-based wind turbine reliability now will have a direct impact on the reliability of future offshore machines.siting of offshore projects. Blade designers must consider strategies to offset the impacts of marine moisture. understanding the frequency and cost of each event. The UpWind project plans to develop design tools to optimize large wind turbine components. The results of an RD&D measurement program on commercial offshore projects could generate enough confidence in these systems to eliminate the requirement for a meteorological tower. and as such. Design tools. and large gearbox and bearing designs that are tolerant of slower speeds and larger scales. Offshore turbine designs must place a higher premium on reliability and anticipation of on-site repairs than their land-based counterparts. which will have a significant impact on COE. Emphasis should be placed on avoiding large maintenance events that require expensive and specialized equipment. Further size growth in wind turbines will largely be pushed by requirements unique to offshore turbine development. wind turbines will have a rotor diameter of more than 150 m and a typical size of 8 MW–10 MW" (Risø National Laboratory 2005). New size-enabling technologies will be required to push wind turbines beyond the scaling limits that constrain the current fleet. and other systems that must perform in large offshore wind plants. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 53 . All of the weightreducing features of the taller land-based tower systems will have an even greater value for very large offshore machines (Risø National Laboratory 2005). and coastal RADAR-based systems that must be adapted to measure offshore wind from more stable buoy systems or from fixed bases. Alternative methods are needed to measure wind speed and wind shear profiles up to elevations where wind turbines operate. In higher latitudes. gearboxes. A new balance between initial capital investment and long-term operating costs must be established for offshore systems. designers must also account for ice flows and ice accretion on the blades. This can be done by identifying the root causes of component failures. 2006). hybrid space frame towers.
and a tail vane for yaw control. 2 2. commercial. mechanical brakes. including gearboxes. These machines range in size from less than 1 kW to multimegawatt. Distributed Energy Systems has a 100-kW turbine that uses a directdrive. and reduce regulatory and environmental barriers. offshore requirements. or turning the machine sideways to the wind with a mechanical linkage. Government leadership could accelerate baseline research and technology development to demonstrate feasibility.S. U. Although most wind turbines in the 100-kW range have features common to utility-scale turbines. utility-scale machines used to offset electricity consumption at the retail rate. 2. industrial. induction generators. The drivetrains were direct-drive. In addition. Although utility-scale DWT requirements are not distinguishable from those for other large-scale turbines. Private U. there is an emerging technology trend toward grid-connected applications and nonfurling designs. including furling.S. The DWT market in the 1990s focused on battery charging for off-grid homes.S. Today. mitigate risk. Because the WinDS deployment analysis does not currently segregate DWT from utility deployment. Furling. remote telecommunications sites. energy companies need to take the technical and financial steps to initiate near-term development of offshore wind power technologies and bring them to sufficient maturity for large-scale deployment. a direct-drive. Turbine technology begins the transition from small to large systems between 20 kW and 100 kW. Bergey Windpower (Norman. Historically. three-bladed upwind designs using tail vanes for passive yaw control dominated small wind turbine technology rated at less than 10 kW. variable-speed synchronous generator. in terms of both market and technology. Oklahoma) offers a 50-kW turbine that uses technology commonly found in smaller machines. and public facility applications. permanent-magnet alternators with variable-speed operation.6. and international village power applications. small machines have unique operating requirements that warrant further discussion. In 2000. permanent-magnet alternator. which differ from those in the European North Sea environment.RD&D Summary The advancement of offshore technology will require the development of infrastructure and technologies that are substantially different from those employed in land-based installations.6 DISTRIBUTED WIND TECHNOLOGY Distributed wind technology (DWT) applications refer to turbine installations on the customer side of the utility meter. including small machines for residential and small farm applications and multimegawatt-scale machines for larger agricultural. pultruded blades. manufacturers are world leaders in small wind systems rated at 100 kW or less. and upwind rotors with active yaw control. 54 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . the industry found a growing domestic market for behind-the-meter wind power. DWT has been synonymous with small machines. Many of these installations were isolated from the grid. was almost universally used for rotor overspeed control.1 SMALL TURBINE TECHNOLOGY Until recently. these advances would need to be tailored to U. Musial (2007) and Bywaters and colleagues (2005) present more detailed analyses of actions for offshore development. DWT applications are part of the land-based deployment estimates in the 20% wind energy scenario.
including injection. although it is not yet known how this contributes to turbine cost. eliminating the need for an expensive interconnection between the substation and the transmission. and reaction injection molding. although the tooling costs are typically higher. DWT applications are also usually located in areas with low wind speeds that are unsuitable for utility-scale applications.2 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS Recent significant developments in DWT systems less than 20 kW include the following: z z Alternative power and load control strategies: Furling inherently increases sound levels because the cross-wind operation creates a helicopter-type chopping noise.6. balance-of-station costs. Unlike utility-scale turbines that commonly use tapered tubular steel towers. Aerodynamic models available today cannot accurately predict the rotor loads in the highly skewed and unsteady flows that occur during the furling process.Endurance Windpower (Spanish Fork. requiring simplicity in design. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 55 . hardware costs alone can be as high as $5. especially for wind turbines of less than 20 kW. Because DWT applications are usually close to workplaces or residences. the use of small turbines makes connection to the electric distribution system possible. sources. Advantages such as shorter fabrication time. shipping. multiple types. limiting sound emissions is critical for market acceptance and zoning approvals. Smallscale DWT installation costs are always higher than those for utility-scale installations because the construction effort cannot be amortized over a large number of machines. These installations usually consist of single machines that are widely scattered. Alternative development approaches include soft-stall rotor-speed control. Five-year warranties are now the industry standard for small wind turbines. interconnection fees. The higher costs of this technology are partially offset by the ability of these applications to compete with retail electricity rates. compression. constant-speed operation. hinged blades. Advanced blade manufacturing methods: Blades for small turbines have been made primarily via hand lay-up manufacturing of fiberglass or pultrusion.000 to $7. and heights of towers are available for small wind turbines. and the extent of do-it-yourself participation. and long maintenance and inspection intervals. 2 Reliability and acoustic emissions are the prominent issues for small DWT applications. The industry is now pursuing alternative manufacturing techniques. 2. ease of repair. and sudden wind direction changes. quieter turbines that respond more predictably to high winds. lower parts costs.000/kW. For a 1-kW system. Tower and foundation costs make up a larger portion of DWT installed cost. Utah) has a 4-kW machine with such characteristics. In addition. Installation costs vary widely because of site-specific factors such as zoning and/or permitting costs. mechanical brakes. These concepts offer safer. and increased repeatability and uniformity are often achieved using these methods. The cost of DWT turbines per kilowatt scales inversely with turbine size. so DWT places a premium on lowwind-speed technologies. and centrifugally actuated blade tips. complicating design and analysis. variable-pitch blades. gusts.
IEC Standard 61400-2 Wind Turbines – Part 2: Design Requirements of Small Wind Turbines. Design standards and certification: The industry is increasing the use of consensus standards in its turbine design efforts for machines with rotor swept areas under 200 square meters (m2.S. a Small Wind Certification Council has been formed in North America to certify that small wind turbines meet the requirements of the draft AWEA standard that is based on the IEC standard (AWEA 1997–2006). Another new trend is obtaining certification of most inverters by Underwriters Laboratories and others for compliance with national interconnection standards. an important characteristic for enhancing low-wind-speed turbine performance.and three-phase configurations. This would require advanced materials. Induction generators: Small turbine designs that use induction generators are under development. The wind capacity factor can be increased by enlarging rotors and installing them on taller towers. Grid-connected inverters: Inverters used in the photovoltaics market are being adapted for use with wind turbines. there are other substantial challenges (such as transmission and siting) as well as significant costs associated with increased penetration that are discussed in other chapters of this report. turbine designs with lower tip-speed ratios and lower peak-rotor speeds are being pursued. electrical demand. This approach. however. The result is more compact and lighter weight generator designs. 2. Fortunately. Reduced rotor speeds: To reduce sound emissions. Reduced generator cogging: Concepts for generators with reduced cogging torque (the force needed to initiate generator rotation) are showing promise to reduce cut-in wind speeds. Rare-earth permanent magnets are now taking over the market with Asian suppliers offering superior magnetic properties and a steady decline in price. common in the early 1980s. No single component improvement in cost or efficiency can achieve the cost reductions or improved capacity factor that system-level advances can achieve. no major technology breakthroughs in land-based wind technology are needed to enable a broad geographic penetration of wind power into the electric grid. about 65 kW rated power).z 2 z z z z z Rare-earth permanent magnets: Ferrite magnets have long been the staple in permanent-magnet generators for small wind turbines. In particular. However. Currently. controls. and power systems 56 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .7 SUMMARY OF WIND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT NEEDS Wind technology must continue to evolve if wind power is to contribute more than a few percentage points of total U. avoids the use of power electronics that increase cost and complexity and reduce reliability. To address this barrier. Turbinespecific inverters are also appearing in both single. a limited number of wind turbines have been certified in compliance with this standard because of the high cost of the certification process.
Figure 2-17. Capital costs would also be brought down by the manufacturing learning curve that is associated with continued technology advancement and by a nearly fivefold doubling of installed capacity. and the potential environmental impacts have yet to be evaluated. Deepwater deployment would eliminate visual esthetics concerns.5 kW to 1. z Increasing the capacity factors by placing larger rotors on taller towers (this can be achieved economically only by using lighter components and load-mitigating rotors that reduce the integrated tower-top mass and structural loads. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 57 2 .S. Risks are mitigated with standards that produce reliable equipment and full-scale testing that ensures the machinery meets the design requirements. The technology development required to make offshore wind a viable option poses a substantial potential risk.that can significantly reduce the weight of major components. and developing advanced controls and improved power systems. Work is needed on analysis methods.5 MW and fielding offshore prototypes to establish the offshore option. but the necessary technologies have yet to be developed. waters. control strategies. The needed cost and performance improvements could be achieved with innovative changes in existing architectures that incorporate novel advances in materials. Fostering the Introduction of Technology Improvements The 20% Wind Scenario assumes a robust technology that will produce costcompetitive generation without preferential tax subsidies. Types of repairs on wind turbines from 2. design approaches. Offshore wind deployment represents a significant fraction of the total wind deployment necessary for 20% wind energy by 2030. evaluating technology pathways. Today's European shallow-water technology is still too expensive and difficult to site in U. Areas where industry can focus RD&D efforts include those which require the most frequent repairs (see Figure 2-17). Today's market success is the product of a combination of technology achievement and supportive public policy. and manufacturing processes. A 20% Wind Scenario would require additional land-based technology improvements and a substantial development of offshore technology. reducing parasitic losses throughout the system can also make gains possible).
and M." Wind Energy. W." Mechanical Engineering. and T. http://www. "Very Light and Fast. Hurtig. Report No." Presented at the European Wind Energy Conference. T. February 27–March 2.A. Musial. 2008. 2005.org/jan07/features/verylight/verylight. "Offshore Wind Profile Measurements from Remote Sensing Instruments. P. P. The Necessity and Requirements of a Collaborative Effort to Develop a Large Wind Turbine Blade Test Facility in North America. IEC Wind Turbine Standards. and Whitaker Engineering (BEW Engineering). Golden. Bywaters. Low Wind Speed Technology Phase II: Investigation of the Application of MediumVoltage Variable-Speed Drive Technology to Improve the Cost of Energy from Low Wind Speed Turbines. Wind Farms." http://www. http://www. C.. R. G. SAND2004-0074. 2005. 2001 to January 31.htm. Schweizer. Chertok. Brown. Schreck..bwea. Norton. O. J. Stowell. S. and W. Jørgensen. G.dk/Pages/wmu.nrel. J. A. CO: NREL Dhanju A. Whitaker. Mikkelsen. Hughes.. Athens." Presented at the AWEA Conference & Exhibition. Technology Improvement Opportunities for Low Wind Speed Turbines and Implications for Cost of Energy Reduction. Perstrup. http://www.. 2003. 58 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Denmark: BTM Consult ApS. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). BTM Consult. "Offshore Wind. NM: Sandia National Laboratories. BWEA (British Wind Energy Association). Albuquerque. World Market Update 2005. Lynch. 2006. P. http://www. Northern Power Systems WindPACT Drive Train Alternative Design Study Report. 2006. BSH (Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie.E. Pittsburgh. DOE/GO 102006-2208. Report No. Frandsen. Laxson. E. Greece.html. A. I. CO: NREL.btm. Mattila. Butterfield. and S.). T. "Assessing Offshore Wind Resources: A Methodology Applied to Delaware. Golden.8 Reducing the capital cost with steady learning-curve improvements driven by innovative manufacturing improvements and a nearly fivefold doubling of installed capacity REFERENCES AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING Antoniou.html. 2004. H. 1996–2007. AWEA (American Wind Energy Association).de/en/Marine%20uses/Industry/Wind%20farms/index. M. Cotrell.bsh.jsp. January. and D. 6(2): 119–128. J.nrel.gov/publications/ Cohen. June 4–7. Innovative Design Approaches for Large Wind Turbine Blades: Final Report.awea.D. J. PA. Period of Performance: April 12. Ashwill. Golden. FS-500-37950. Barthelmie. T. Labath. John. Hablanian.pdf. A. 2007. L. Fingersh. http://www. 2005. Report No. 2006.org/standards/iec_stds. Golden. V. TP-500-38044. 2006.memagazine. Ringkøbing. Kempton..gov/docs/fy06osti/37950. Ashwill.com/offshore/info. Report No. NREL/SR-500-41036. Veers.html#WG4. Report No. SR-500 35524. Bossanyi. "Individual Blade Pitch Control for Load Reduction. http://www. Behnke. S. Erdman.z 2 2. Salata. S. CO: NREL.
World's Most Advanced Gas Turbine Ready to Cross Commercial Threshold.de/extool/Extoolframe. October 26–28. Lindvig. Barthelmie.uni-kassel.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/841190-OF8Frc/ Griffin. CO: NREL. 2006. Alternative Energy and Alternate Use Program.xls. Report No. M.B.S.com/standardization/IEC_TC88/index. and R. Experience Curves: A tool for Energy Policy Programmes Assessment (EXTOOL). DC: DOE." Presented at the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Proceedings.B. 2007. W. 2000.iset." Windpower Monthly. "Future Challenges for a Marine Installation Company.gov/offshore/RenewableEnergy/RenewableEnergyMain. Report No." http://nettedautomation. "Using Satellite Data for Mapping Offshore Wind Resources and Wakes. P. 2 EIA (Energy Information Administration). Denmark. Boise. FS-500-37945. 2007. Copenhagen." Presented at the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Proceedings. B. 2005. 42 (3). "Offshore Wind Electricity: A Viable Energy Option for the Coastal United States.). September. "Offshore Wind Resource Assessment: Comparative Study between MM5 and WAsP. 2002." http://www. Sweden: ISET.osti. Golden. Christiansen. Sweden.nrel." Presented at the 49th IEA Topical Expert Meeting. Nielsen. Lund. "Technical Committee 88: Wind turbines. Standards 61400-x. http://www. Hasager. Copenhagen. 2006. Department of Energy). Jimenez. DOE/GO-102006-2205. B. Variable Length Wind Turbine Blade." Marine Technology Society Journal.doe. Copenhagen. D.gov/news/techlines/2000/tl_ats_ge1. October 26–28.. 32-43. Denmark. CO: NREL. 2005. Kühn. Kreutzer. 2006. Report No.mms. http://www.htm.to 120-Meter Rotor. SR-500 29492. Low Wind Speed Technology Phase I: Advanced Power Electronics for Low Wind Speed Turbine Applications. October 26–28.DOE (U. Addendum to WindPACT Turbine Design Scaling Studies Technical Area 3 – Self-Erecting Tower and Nacelle Feasibility: Report No. 2003.ht m." Presented at the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Proceedings. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 59 .. Musial. Stockholm.html. WindPACT Turbine Design Scaling Studies Technical Area 1 – Composite Blades for 80. Harrison.eia. 2003.Golden. SR-500 29493-A. "Big Experience with Small Wind Turbines (SWT). November. 2005. "State Electricity Sales Spreadsheet.html ISET (Institut fuer Solare Energieversorgungstechnik).fossil. http://www. Washington.A. Claveri. and L. K. F. 2001. EUI (Energy Unlimited Inc. Denmark. C. Knight. and L. M. DE-FG36-03GO13171. CO: NREL.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/sales_state. Durante.pdf.gov/docs/fy06osti/37945. IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission). NREL. http://www.. Golden. MMS (Minerals Management Service). ID: EUI.energy. Lange. Northern Power Systems. 2005. S. "A More Conservative Approach. T. http://www.
(Per Nielsen) "Offshore Wind Energy Projects Feasibility Study Guidelines.risoe.lipower. Denmark: Risø National Laboratory. Copenhagen.. S.. NM: Sandia National Laboratories. Risø-R-1579(EN).. Cost.gov/docs/fy06osti/37943. Bolinger.jsp?query_id=0&page=0&osti_id =908214 60 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .." Presented at the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Proceedings. 2006. 2005. R. 2006. Report No. Wind Power Installation. DOE/GO–102007-2433. 2 Pace Global Energy Services. Madsen. FS-500-37943. "Efficient Installation of Offshore Wind Turbines: Lessons Learned from Nysted Offshore Wind Farm. October 26–28. Annual Report on U. Assessment of Offshore Wind Power Resources. Roskilde. Altener Project. 2007. Report No. 20 % Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource." Presented at the Copenhagen Offshore Wind Proceedings. Report No. Aug. Denmark. CO: NREL.biblio.A.O'Connell. and R. 2005. http://www. Overland Park.Risø National Laboratory Annual Progress Report 2005. 2003. http://www. Golden. Low Wind Speed Technology Phase II: Breakthrough in Power Electronics from Silicon Carbide. Risø National Laboratory. et al. Wiser. and M. Association Euratom . 2007.S.F. http://www. Pletka.osti. Skjærbæk. SAND2006-1100. October 26–28. KS: Black & Veatch.pdf Poulsen. Stiesdal.pdf. DOE/GO-102006-2203. 2005. 2007. http://www.S. Denmark. and P. and Performance Trends: 2006. SEAWIND. C. R. Walford.H.pdf Peregrine Power.nrel. and P. "Design for Reliability. CO: NREL. Golden. Wind Turbine Reliability: Understanding and Minimizing Wind Turbine Operation and Maintenance Costs. Copenhagen.dk/rispubl/ofd/ofdpdf/ris-r-1579. Albuquerque." Denmark.gov/bridge/product. H.org/newscenter/pr/2007/pace_wind.
Over the past five years.S. wind energy capacity to 13. Material and Resources 3 Stakeholders and decision makers need to know whether a generation mix of 20% wind energy by 2030 might be constrained by raw materials availability.000 turbines are installed each year. America's wind power generating capacity increased by 27%. This chapter examines the adequacy of these critical resources. homes. wind energy industry invested approximately $4 billion in 2. or labor availability. with rotor diameters between 60 meters (m) and 90 m. Recently installed wind farms increased cumulative installed U. larger turbines (with capacity factors that increase over time.000 MW milestone reached in August 2006 (AWEA 2007).S. On average. (See the Glossary in Appendix E for explanations of wind energy capacity and measurement units.8% of total electricity in 2006. as discussed in Chapter 2) are expected to become more common as offshore technology advances are transferred to landbased turbines. making wind the second largest source of new power generation in the nation—surpassed only by natural gas—for the second year in a row. These larger turbines could reach rated power between 4 MW and 6 MW and capacity factors between 40% and 50%.884 MW—well above the 10. manufacturing capability. more and larger wind turbines can help to meet a growing demand for electricity. Although currently installed machines are expected to operate through 2030.899 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) in 2006 to about 5. 1 MW of wind power produces enough electricity to power 250 to 300 U. tower heights between 60 m and 100 m. For the purpose of estimating the raw materials and investment effort needed to support the required level of wind penetration in the 20% Wind Scenario. Manufacturing. with a modest contribution of the larger-sized machines (see Chapter 2).368 billion MWh in 2030. approximately 2. the wind industry in the United States has grown by an average of 22% annually.3% annually—from 3.000 turbines per year by 2017. Although wind energy supplied approximately 0. annual electricity consumption in the United States is expected to grow at a rate of 1.) The most common large turbines currently in use have a rated capacity of between 1 MW and 3 MW. Based on estimates released by the U. but that figure is expected to rise and to level out at about 7. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA 2006). The U.454 megawatts (MW) of new generating capacity in 2006. industry leaders have assumed that most of the wind turbines used in the next two to three decades will be in the 1-MW to 3-MW class. In 2006 alone.Chapter 3.S. and capacity factors between 30% and 40% (capacity factor is an indicator of annual energy production).S. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 61 . Today.
it can be recycled. and copper. blade core materials. As a result. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Table 3-2 further describes the raw materials required to reach manufacturing levels of about 7.000 turbines will be required to produce 20% of the nation's electricity in 2030. Primary raw materials for fiberglass (sand) are in ample supply. and cores made from the petroleum-based chemicals that are used to impregnate the fiberglass (Laxson.000 turbines per year by 2017 and continue at that rate through 2030. The most important resources are steel. 3 To estimate the raw materials required for the 20% Wind Scenario. and Blair 2006).g. fiberglass. materials usage will also need to increase considerably. resins (for composites and adhesives). permanent magnets. drivetrain. Table 3-1 shows the percentage of different materials used in each component and each component's percentage of total turbine weight. replacing a turbine after 20+ years of service would not significantly affect the national steel demand because recycled steel can be used in other applications for which high-quality steel is not a requirement (Laxson. Fiberglass: Additional fiberglass furnaces would be needed to build more wind turbines. Reducing the weight and cost of the turbines is the key to making wind energy competitive with other power sources.. business opportunities are expected to expand in wind turbine components and materials manufacturing. with a wide range of materials used in manufacturing large turbines. No single component dominates a wind turbine's total cost. however. Hand. Using the materials consumption model in Table 3-1 as a basis. To reach the high levels of wind energy associated with the 20% Wind Scenario. or 8% of the worldwide total. The production status of these materials is reviewed in the following list: z z 62 Steel: The steel needed for additional wind turbines is not expected to have a significant impact on total steel production.9 million metric tons of steel.3. the United States produced 93. The table applies to turbines in the 1. electrical system. could significantly reduce costs (e. as well as to larger turbines of 4 MW or more. Throughout the next few decades. and several research programs have significantly improved the efficiency of current machines.000 turbines per year. through the use of lighter weight components for blades and towers). and tower. The availability of critical resources is crucial for large-scale manufacturing of wind turbines. even as new technologies that improve component performance are introduced. Approximately 100. The technological progress described in Chapter 2. adhesives. This analysis assumes that turbines will become lighter and annual installation rates will level off to roughly 7. and Blair 2006).) Although steel will be required for any electricity generation technology installed over the next several decades. but availability and costs are expected to fluctuate for resins. Hand. this analysis focuses on the most important materials used in building a wind turbine today (such as steel and aluminum) and on main turbine components.1 RAW MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS Wind turbines are built in many sizes and configurations.5-MW class. which is generally split evenly among the rotor. (In 2005.
14 0.Table 3-1.07 6.5 MW Weight % Rotor Hub Blades Nacelle Gearbox Generator Frame Tower Steel 6.4 2030 90 2.0 100.6 66. Main components and materials used in a wind turbine (%) 1. To achieve such drastic industry scale-up.2 162.308 26.00 7.614 110 1.2 20.34 CRP Adhesive Core TOTAL 15 5 100.96 16.0 GRP 2 9 2 4 3 3 0.800 2.644 29.4 10.4 29.6 11.1 0. GRP = glass-fiber-reinforced plastic. CRP = carbon fiber reinforced plastic Source: Sterzinger and Svrcek (2004) Table 3-2.0 100. Permanent magnets: By eliminating copper from the generator rotor and using permanent magnets. it is possible to build smaller and lighter generators.1 4 MW Rotor Hub Blades Nacelle Gearbox Generator Frame Tower Permanent Concrete Magnet 2 1.0 7.0 100. which are becoming more economically feasible.2 100 2 10.6 Concrete Steel Aluminum Copper GRP CRP Adhesive Core 1.4 18. with about 35.0 78 9 2 35 3 3 0.4 30.000 metric tons. Yearly raw materials estimate (thousands of metric tons) Year kWh/kg Permanent Magnet 2006 65 0.8 0.80 0.0 5.2 19. CRP = carbon fiber reinforced plastic Source: Sterzinger and Svrcek (2004) z z z Core: End-grain balsa wood is an alternative core material that can replace the low-density polymer foam used in blade construction.0 100.2 9.180 2.2 31.6 20. GRP = glass-fiber-reinforced plastic.6 5.00 100.20 37.8 2. Although supply is not expected to be restricted.03 1.0 96 65 85 98 89.0 Notes: Tower includes foundation.6 Aluminum Copper 2 Steel 96 93 85 98 89.4 156. packaging.4 33.1 3.8 2015 75 0.63 3 0.8 9.6 7.4 6.000 metric tons produced in China.544 27.0 1. Availability of this wood might be an issue based on the growth rate of balsa trees relative to the projected high demand.0 0.51 5.0 100.468 2.2 73.4 GRP CRP Adhesive Core 68 10 15 5 Aluminum Copper 100 2 10.0 100.0 Permanent Concrete Magnet 6. Carbon fiber: Current global production of commercial-grade carbon fiber is approximately 50 million pounds (lb) per year.60 67.0 100.2 2025 85 2.37 100. changes to carbon fiber production technologies.0 100.188 15.2 5. significant additions to the manufacturing capability would be required to meet 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 63 3 .4 152.150 1.4 0. and emissions-control procedures will be required.1 0.2 1.0 15.0 2020 80 2.4 10.08 2 1.7 100.38 100.4 18.10 35.76 1.6 Notes: kg = kilograms.6 1.0 100.7 6.00 33. World magnet production in 2005 was about 40.2 2010 70 0. The use of carbon fiber in turbine blades in 2030 alone would nearly double this demand.4 7.8 19.8 1.798 464 4.10 2.3 0. production facilities.
Hand. Hand. and will continue outlined in the subsections that follow. 64 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . • GRP is expected to continue to be used for blades. controllers. strength. z 3 Copper: Although wind turbines use significant amounts of copper. and possibly other new materials will likely come into use as turbine designs evolve. a bedplate. CFRP. Design simplifications and innovations are anticipated in each element of the machine head.the demand for wind turbines and other products (Trout 2002. described in the Materials Usage Analysis sidebar). manufacturing capability may or may not be able to grow or shrink as necessary. and Blair 2006). a sustainable level of annual wind turbine installation would be best supported by a substantial domestic manufacturing base. bearings. and Blair 2006). other trends in turbine components are • Turbine material usage is. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) created a simple model to explore sustainable installation rates that would maintain wind energy production at specific levels spanning several decades (Laxson. the drivetrain. and fatigue requirements can be met. and an enclosure. • Variable-speed generators will become more common. This demand level. global copper production is adequate to satisfy growing demands from the wind industry. Laxson. to be. GRP.27 million metric tons in 2005). however.S. Copper price escalation has exceeded inflation in recent years and could affect turbine costs. blade-pitch change mechanisms. 3. • Simplification of the nacelle machinery might reduce raw material costs and also increase reliability. shafts. refined copper consumption was 2. fatigue-resistant materials. • Permanent-magnet generators on larger turbines will increase the need for magnetic materials. Although copper ranks third after steel and aluminum in world metals consumption. • Opportunities exist for introducing aluminum or other lightweight composites. the trend will be toward high strength. Changes to Machine Heads The machine head contains an array of complex machinery including yaw drives. MANUFACTURING CAPABILITY In principle. drive brakes. would not have a significant impact on national demand (U. as long as the life-cycle costs are low. provided that cost. If installation rates fluctuate greatly from one year to the next. Generally. trends are toward using lighter-weight materials. the gearbox.2 Evolution of Rotors Most rotor blades in use today are built from glassfiber-reinforced plastic (GRP). oil pumps and coolers. • The use of carbon fiber might help reduce weight and cost. Despite the demand and supply status of these materials. the associated level of demand still equates to less than 4% of the available copper. • Low costs and high reliability remain the primary drivers. Steel and various composites and carbon filament-reinforced plastic (CFRP) are also used. then. In Material Usage Analysis addition to the findings of Ancona and McVeigh (Ancona and McVeigh 2001) (2001. new component developments are expected to significantly change material usage patterns. As the rotor size increases for larger machines. Composites involving steel. dominated by steel.
and Blair 2006). the 20% curve in Figure 3-1(a) shifts downward. shows the cumulative capacity attained in each case. a.S. This chapter discusses the materials and manufacturing needed to pursue 20% wind energy from 2007 through 2030 to meet the annual and cumulative installed capacity shown in Figure 3-2. and 30% of total national electrical energy production from wind by 2030. somewhat similar to that shown in Figure 3-2.) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 65 .The NREL study explored a number of alternative scenarios for annual wind power capacity expansion to understand their potential impact on wind energy installation and manufacturing rates. This figure shows the forecasts for annual and cumulative installed wind energy capacity. In this scenario. Hand. annual installations climb to more than 16 GW per year. Hand. Alternatively. see Appendix A. as explained in Appendix A's detailed description of the analytic modeling approach employed. The NREL study assumed that the wind plant capacity factor would not change from year to year or from location to location. (For more details on the modeling approach used. the 20% Wind Scenario evaluation assumes that plant capacity factors will increase modestly with experience and technology improvements (see Chapter 2). Figure 3-1. Cumulative installed wind energy capacity to meet 20% of energy demand. Between 2007 and 2030. Figure 3-1 shows a comparison of three models for the installation rates required to meet three energy supply goals of 10%. providing an upper bound on the annual installation rate and cumulative capacity required to produce 20% of electricity demand. Annual installed wind energy capacity to meet 20% of energy demand. Note that when these refinements are included. b. 293 GW are installed. 3 NREL's study assessed potential barriers that would prohibit near-term high wind penetration levels. such as manufacturing rates or resource limitations. To reach 20% electric generation from wind by 2030 in the United States. the authors noted. 20%. industry to meet those demands (Laxson. and Blair 2006). Figure 3-1(a) shows the annual rates and Figure 3-1(b). and the total installed wind capacity increases to 305 GW by 2030. which also forms the basis for estimates of new wind turbines and the raw materials required to produce them. an annual installed capacity increase of about 20% would need to be sustained for a decade (Laxson. A manufacturing production level of 20 gigawatts (GW) per year by 2017—and maintained at this value thereafter—would reach levels close to 400 GW of wind energy capacity by 2030. The results indicate that achieving the 20% Wind Scenario by 2030 is possible without overwhelming the ability of U. The 20% scenario also accounts for regional variations in wind resources.
Figure 3-2. Northeast.S. both to determine the location of companies involved in wind turbine production and to examine limitations to a rapidly expanding wind business. These components were grouped into five categories. South.S. wind manufacturing industry.1 CURRENT MANUFACTURING FACILITIES A growing number of states and companies in the United States are ramping up capacity to manufacture wind turbines. This study investigated the current and future U.2.S. Locations of U. The report covered four census regions (the Midwest. Jobs are expected to remain in the U. The table also shows the locations of U. as shown in Table 3-1.S. or have the ability to do so. Annual and cumulative installed wind energy capacity represented in the 20% Wind Scenario 3 3. A useful perspective on growing manufacturing requirements is provided by a non government organization study released in 2004 called Wind Turbine Development: Location of Manufacturing Activity (Sterzinger and Svrcek 2004). and West) and divided turbine manufacturing into 20 separate components. Table 3-3. wind turbine component manufacturers Region Midwest Northeast South West Division Rotor East North Central West North Central Middle Atlantic New England East South Central South Atlantic West South Central Mountain Pacific Component Total: 6 1 3 0 0 3 4 1 5 23 Nacelle and Controls 5 0 4 6 0 2 5 0 4 26 Gearbox & Generator & Drivetrain Power Electronics 8 1 1 1 4 5 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 2 4 16 16 Tower Division Total 2 8 1 0 2 2 6 0 4 25 22 11 17 8 2 9 16 2 19 106 (Sterzinger and Svrcek 2004) 66 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . if investments are made in certain components and in advanced manufacturing technologies.
wind turbine component manufacturers in 2004. about 90 companies directly manufacture components for utility-scale wind turbines. These firms are widely distributed around the country and some are located in regions with. Figure 3-3 shows the locations of a number of the current manufacturers of wind turbines and components. 3 Figure 3-3. Examples of manufacturers supplying wind equipment across the United States 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 67 . broken down by region. Among the 106 companies surveyed. as yet. with utility scale being roughly defined as 1 MW or greater. little wind power development.
manufacturers have naturally been drawn to setting up their factories outside the United States (e.353. An advantage to U.832 198 11.S.327 35. more than 16. These firms are spread across all 50 states.854 411. Manufacturing many significant wind turbine components is also a labor-intensive process.975.164 42. The 20 states that would likely receive the most investment and the most new manufacturing jobs from wind power expansion account for 75% of the total U. http://www.072 2.979 177 17.355 8.S. To sustain a growing number of wind installations.890.000 firms are currently producing products under one or more of the NAICS codes that include manufacture of wind components. To identify this potential. however.219. the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS.414 1.810 34. NEC Total Total Annual Payroll Number of Employees ($1000s) Companies 501.163 A 2006 NGO report entitled "Renewable Energy Potential: A Case Study of Pennsylvania (Sterzinger and Stevens 2006) identified the bottlenecks in the component supply chain.514 779.786 1.025.005. labor wage rates at higher levels than those paid in many other countries. Manufacturing firms with technical potential to enter wind turbine component market NAICS Code Description Code 326199 All Other Plastics Products 331511 Iron Foundries 332312 Fabricated Structural Metal 332991 Ball and Roller Bearings 333412 Industrial and Commercial Fans and Blowers 333611 Turbines.079 16. As shown in Table 3-4. The wind equipment manufacturing sector also faces trade-offs between using domestic or foreign manufacturing facilities.891 110 13.. only a few manufacturers in the world deliver gearboxes for large wind turbines. and Turbine Generators.033 33. 3 Table 3-4.730 4. and 76% of the manufacturing jobs lost in the last 3. They are concentrated.census.5 years.099. Industrial 333613 Power Transmission Equip. Bottlenecks were identified for various components.005.509 747 106.780. population.499 62.html) was searched to identify companies operating under relevant industry codes. in Mexico and China).009 15.053 3.246 248 292 716 830 659 979 1. additional investment must be in place to support the development of a gearbox industry focused on wind applications.A large national investment in wind would likely spread beyond these active companies. The manufacturing activity related to wind power development is substantial and widely dispersed (Sterzinger and Svrcek 2004).-based operations is a reduction in the often significant transportation cost of moving large components such as blades and towers.721 1.546 539.gov/epcd/www/naics.S. U. The manufacture of large bearings—as well as the number of large castings suppliers— will also need to expand. and Turbine Generator Sets 333612 Speed Changer.991 21. One wind blade manufacturer with significant international 68 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .g.161 3. in the most populous states and the states that have suffered the most from loss of manufacturing jobs. but obtaining gearbox components was particularly problematic.416 1.638.174 75.080.751 3. With U. 334418 Printed Circuits and Electronics Assemblies 334519 Measuring and Controlling Devices 335312 Motors and Generators 335999 Electronic Equipment and Components.103 105. Currently.S.
to make a U. These gains will allow the higher U.S. with a current typical commercial unit size of 2 MW–3 MW compared to a typical 1. factories with U. On the supply side. 3. Nuclear power stations have been developed mainly since the middle of the twentieth century and have now reached a penetration of 17. This growth was driven by the expectation—now discounted—of continuing low natural gas prices. As shown in Table 3-3. electric sector experienced a rush toward new gas combined-cycle and combustion-turbine generation. employees whose jobs will remain secure for a long time.1% in the world's power supply. wage rates to be competitive. serial production of large numbers of similar units can reduce manufacturing costs. Toyota North America exemplifies the manufacturing scale up of a modular technology and capability that is possible in the United States.manufacturing experience estimates that. nuclear plants generate about 20% of the nation's electrical energy. the labor hours per blade would need to be reduced by a factor of 30%–35%. In the United States. several industries have experienced large rates of growth over a short period of time. it is nonetheless difficult to directly compare penetration patterns for nuclear power and wind technology.2. industry. the U. a number of U. To attract these jobs.000-MW nuclear plant. gas or oil. automation and productivity gains through the development of advanced manufacturing technology are needed.S. nuclear power plant installations saw a 17% annual growth rate between 1960 and 1997 (BTM 1999). Wind power is a smaller scale technology. To ensure that the bulk of these manufacturing jobs stay in the United States.S. The experience with natural gas demonstrates that huge amounts of power generation equipment can be manufactured in the United States if sufficient market demand exists.S. such as thermal power stations fired with coal. its modularity makes it ideal for all sizes of installations—from a single unit (2 MW–3 MW) to a huge wind farm (1. Even though the time horizon of the 20% Wind Scenario is consistent with the historical development of nuclear power. Worldwide. These factors suggest that manufacturing ramp-up for wind turbines should be less daunting than ramp-up for nuclear power plant equipment. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 69 . tens of gigawatts of natural gas power plants were manufactured and installed in the United States each year. The history of nuclear power shows that it is possible to achieve substantial levels of penetration with a new technology over two to three decades. states have set aside funds for RD&D. From 1999 through 2005. and have done so for the last decade or more.S. with installations peaking in 2002 at more than 60 GW (Black and Veatch. and federal programs in advanced manufacturing can create competitive U.S. forthcoming 2008). or nuclear reactors. Experiences with natural-gas-fired power plants over the past decade also provide important perspectives on the ability to rapidly expand manufacturing capability for wind power. The power plants most commonly used to produce electricity around the world are large in scale. despite a halt in new nuclear plant licensing in the early 1980s.000 MW). Collaboration among state. factory competitive.2 3 RAMPING UP ENERGY INDUSTRIES In the United States. From the early 1990s through the first half of the current decade. with plans to collaborate with industry and the federal government on a cost-shared basis. Despite the smaller scales of wind power.
806 U. One concern is that the number of students in power engineering programs has been dropping in recent years.946. Table 3-3 shows that Toyota's annual U. Production 3 $2. require large quantities of steel. manufacturing capability since the mid 1980s.S.com/about/operations/manufacturing/). including those shown in Table 3-6. like wind turbines. graduate power engineering 70 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S. production. Sales in Power Output Terms 448 million horsepower 384 million kW or 384 GW Source: Adapted from website data http://www.244.296 vehicles U. maintain. build. This annual production begins to approach in power capability the total amount of wind generation installed between 2007 and 2030 through realization of the 20% Wind Scenario. Currently.17 MW 2005 U.3 LABOR REQUIREMENTS Beyond the raw material and manufacturing facilities required to create wind turbines and components. operate.393.1 MAINTAINING AND EXPANDING RELEVANT TECHNICAL STRENGTH Major expansion of wind power in the United States would require substantial numbers of skilled personnel available to design. and automobiles.toyota.374. increased to 236 GW by 2005. Vehicle Production (2005) 1. Production in Power Output Terms 275 million horsepower 236 million kW or 236 GW 2005 U.062 vehicles Cumulative Sales $272. and electronic components. and advance wind power equipment and technology. U.269.S.100 vehicles Average Engine Power 2004-2005 227 horsepower or 0.390.S. Vehicle Sales (2005) 2.444 12. a number of educational programs are already offered around the nation. many more programs of a similar nature will be needed nationwide to satisfy the needs stemming from the 20% Wind Scenario.003 employees 2005 Payroll Cumulative U. Although this is an excellent beginning. Toward this end. These staff would need a range of skills and experience to fill many new employment opportunities.Table 3-5. Toyota has continued to establish its U.3. when expressed in terms of engine power output. 3. a skilled labor force would be required. plastics.S. 3. The likely outcome from developing new capabilities and capacity would be expansion of manufacturing in areas currently capable of competing or locations where logistic advantages exist.226.S. Toyota North America vehicle production and sales Direct U. the majority of vehicles Toyota sells in the United States are actually produced in this country. Today. Employment (2005) 32.S.S. There is no indication that Toyota's domestic expansion has caused any strain on the nation's manufacturing or materials-supply sectors.S.
Iowa One-year diploma for wind technician.000. etc. and natural resources certificate and degree programs Mesalands Community College: North American Wind Research and Training Center Tucumcari. Wind technology-related educational programs around the United States today School Location Boulder.S. Wisconsin Associate degree in applied science. environmental science. Colorado Workshops for Industry Colorado State University Fort Collins. which shows that the number of college graduates receiving degrees in Table 3-6. two-year associate in applied science degree for wind technician University of Massachusetts at Amherst: College of Engineering. this number approached 2. in the 1980s. online certificate program for "windsmith" Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute Albuquerque. electromechanical technology with a wind system Technician track Fond du Lac Tribal and Community College Fond du Lac. Oregon Two-year associate of applied science degree for energy management technician. New Mexico Under development: Curriculum for operations and maintenance technician. In addition. New York New Vision Renewable Energy Program for high school seniors Columbia Gorge Community College Hood River. Massachusetts MS and Ph. two-year associate degree in wind farm management Wayne Technical and Career Center Williamson. New Mexico Under development: Integration of renewable energy technology experiential learning into the electronics technology. diploma for wind energy mechanic. Texas Integrative graduate education and research traineeship Lakeshore Technical College Cleveland. This concern is echoed in Figure 3-4. Wisconsin Clean Energy Technician Certificate Program 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 3 Degree or Program Wind Energy Applications Training Symposium 71 . Maine Associate of applied science degree program in wind energy technology. the number of wind engineering programs in U. graduate schools is significantly lower than in Europe.programs produce about 500 engineers per year. Oregon One-year certificate and two-year degree for renewable energy technician Lane Community College Eugene. agricultural science.D. and Renewable Energy Research Laboratory (becoming University of Massachusetts Wind Energy Center in late 2008) Amherst. Iowa Workshops for upper level high school and community college technology instructors Iowa Lakes Community College Estherville. two-year associate of applied science option for renewable energy technician Texas Tech and other American universities: Wind Science & Engineering Research Center Lubbock.) Advanced Technology Environmental Education Center: Sustainable Energy Education and Training Bettencourt. level engineering programs specializing in wind energy Minnesota West Community and Technical College Canby. Colorado 65-MW turbine on campus for research (engineering. environmental.
Figure 3-4. resins. etc). a proactive stance is essential to operate successfully in an environment of rapidly growing and shifting 72 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . At this rate. rather then domestic. Unless this trend is reversed.1 CHALLENGES Materials Several key materials are crucial to the production of a wind turbine. graduate programs is well below similar graduate programs in Europe (Denmark. Germany. Even the level of U. and that this trend is projected to continue for the foreseeable future (NSTC 2000).4. Manufacturing The 20% Wind Scenario would demand installations at a sustained growth rate of 20% annually for nearly a decade and then maintain annual installations through 2030. Among the raw materials that might potentially constrain the ability to reach high levels of wind power are fiberglass (about 9 metric tons required per megawatt of wind turbine capacity). despite major new wind installations in the United States. and permanent magnets. 3. Percentage of 22-year-olds with a bachelor degree in science and engineering through 2050 3 science and engineering has been declining. For example. and a significant portion of the economic gains will be foreign. it is no longer simply a matter of where to establish new manufacturing capacity.4 CHALLENGES TO 20% WIND ENERGY BY 2030 3. For turbine companies. the glass fiber requirements would be about half the level used domestically for roofing shingles (which is currently the largest consumer of fiberglass) and about double the amount now used in boat building.S. Investment decisions must now address strategies for building out and securing supply lines on a global basis. the United States will be unable to provide the necessary trained talent and manufacturing expertise. most of the technology will be imported.
Ringkøbing.. K. stable and consistent policies that encourage investment in these new sectors of activity are needed. the percentage of 22-year-olds earning degrees in science and engineering will continue to drop in the next 40 years (NSTC 2000). and various levels of government could foster university programs in wind and renewable energy technology. MD http://www.ht ml BTM Consult. 1999. O'Connell. R.M. Report No. Increased 27% in 2006 and Is Expected To Grow an Additional 26% in 2007. Report No. In a report published by the National Science and Technology Counsel (NTSC) in 2000. and N. Wind Turbine Development: Location of Manufacturing Activity. Denmark: BTM Consult ApS.S. 20% Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. Ensuring a Strong U. Technical and Engineering Workforce in the 21st Century. M. Ambrose. MA: Emerging Energy Research. Scientific. Hays.inforse. NREL/TP-500-40482. February 2006. Strategy White Paper. More support from industry. Washington. For rapid growth of manufacturing capacity to be achieved. 2000. http://www.5 REFERENCES AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING Ancona and McVeigh. NSTC (National Science and Technology Council). Cambridge. http://www. Robledo. and R. Wind Power at a Crossroads. the 20% Wind Scenario could be feasible even with the potential challenges related to the availability of raw material or increased manufacturing demands. Washington. Golden. Fortunately. Laxson. Labor 3 One potential gap in achieving high rates of wind energy development is the availability of a qualified work force. and Ambrose 2006). LLC. Wind Force 10: A Blueprint to Achieve 10% of the World's Electricity from Wind Power by 2010. KS: Black & Veatch. Rockville. September 2004. 2001.Washington.com/uploads/technology/WindTurbine MaterialsandManufacturing_FactSheet. DC: EIA. preparing the work force to support the industry's efforts. Washington.. C.org/newsroom/releases/Wind_Power_Capacity_012307. 2006. DOE/EIA-0383. Pletka. Overland Park.generalplastics. A. High Wind Penetration Impact on W.awea. Wind Manufacturing Capacity and Critical Resources..S. Supply Shortages Spark Industry Restructuring. and M. Robledo.S. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 73 . Wind Power Capacity In U. 2006. Blair.dk/doc/Windforce10. 2007. Annual Energy Outlook 2006. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). et al. DC: AWEA. 2007.pdf AWEA (American Wind Energy Association). Sterzinger. Princeton Energy Resources International. trade organizations. DC:NSTC.. Hand. Svrcek. G. and W.demand for wind turbines (Hays. 3. DC: Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP).pdf EIA (Energy Information Administration).
3 74 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .Sterzinger.R. DC: REPP. October 2006. New Jersey. Newark.. Component Manufacturing: Ohio's Future in the Renewable Energy Industry. Washington. G. August 18–22. Trout. S. Svrcek. 2002. DC: REPP. G.. Stevens. Sterzinger. Renewable Energy Potential: A Case Study of Pennsylvania. "Rare Earth Magnet Industry in the USA: Current Status and Future Trends. and M. 2005. Washington. and J." Presented at the XVII Rare Earth Magnet Workshop.
unlike many traditional power sources. reforms already under consideration in this sector can better accommodate wind energy. and that supply meets demand. wind generation could reliably supply 20% of U. The 20% Wind Scenario would require the continuing evolution of transmission planning and system operations. Substantial work already done in this field have outlined scenarios in which barriers to achieving the 20% Wind Scenario could be removed while maintaining reliable service and reasonable electricity rates. 4 There are two separate and distinct power system challenges to obtaining 20% of U. wind's variability need not be a technical barrier to incorporating it into the broader portfolio of available options. Although some market structures. This chapter begins with an examination of several detailed studies that have looked at the technical and economic impacts of integrating high levels of wind energy into electric systems. build. One challenge lies in reliably balancing electrical generation and load over time with a large portion of energy coming from a variable power source such as wind. it is the net system load that must be balanced.S. electricity demand. this chapter examines how wind can be reliably accommodated into power system operations and planning. however.Chapter 4. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 75 . electric power system—if it continues on its current path—would allow the 20% wind energy scenario to be realized by 2030. and transmission rules accommodate much more wind energy than others. electric energy from wind. To accommodate a nondispatchable variable source such as wind. When seen in this more systemic way. Electric System The ever-increasing sophistication of the operation of the U." The other challenge is to plan. Transmission system operators must ensure that enough generation capacity is operating on the grid at all times. not an individual load or generation source in isolation. Overall.S. Transmission and Integration into the U. and pay for the new transmission facilities that will be required to access remote wind resources. even through the daily and seasonal load cycles within the system. in addition to expanded electricity markets.S. cannot be accessed on demand or is "nondispatchable. which. wind energy can play a vital role in diversifying the power system's energy portfolio. generation portfolios. Experience and studies suggest that with these reforms. operators must ensure that sufficient reserves from other power sources are available to keep the system in balance. Next. As the research discussed in this chapter demonstrates.S.
1 LESSONS LEARNED 4. or others. If electric loads keep growing as expected. North 76 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Grid codes around the world are also changing to incorporate wind plants.S. Several U. if 200 megawatthours (MWh) of wind energy is supplied and 1. designers and engineers must find ways to build transmission at a reasonable cost and take a closer look at the alternatives to conventional power generation in a carbon-constrained future. Many challenges are inherent in building transmission systems to accommodate wind energy. 4. however. if a 300-MW wind plant is operating in a zone with a 1. This is true regardless of the power sources that dominate over the coming decades. The U.4.000-MW peak load. Minnesota. The capacity penetration is related to the energy penetration by the ratio of the system load factor to the wind plant capacity factor. They are defined and related as follows: 4 Energy penetration is the ratio of the amount of energy delivered from the wind generation to the total energy delivered. Capacity penetration is the ratio of the nameplate rating of the wind plant capacity to the peak load. including Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 661-A in the United States. Grid codes are regulations that govern the performance characteristics of different aspects of the power system.000 MWh is consumed during the same period. Say that the system load factor is 60% and the wind plant capacity factor is 40%. this chapter assesses the feasibility and cost of building new transmission lines and facilities to tap the remote wind resources that would be needed for the 20% Wind Scenario. and support continues to grow for cleaner generation options. or over a short period of time. wind. power industry has renewed its commitment to a robust transmission system. whether they are fossil fuels. Instantaneous penetration is the ratio of the wind plant output to load at a specific point in time. In this environment. New Mexico. and instantaneous penetration. For example. capacity penetration. extensive new transmission will be required to connect new generation to loads.S. the capacity penetration is 30%.1 WIND PENETRATION EXPERIENCES AND STUDIES The needs of system operators—reflected in grid codes—ensure that wind power will continue to be integrated in ways that guarantee the continued reliable operation of the power system. the capacity penetration would be 20% × 0. and with an energy penetration of 20%. hydropower. or 30%. wind's energy penetration is 20%. utilities are approaching 10% wind capacity as a percentage of their peak load. In this case. Michigan.Finally.6/0. For example. Wind Penetration Levels At least three different measures are used to describe wind penetration levels: energy penetration.1. including the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) and Xcel Energy (which serves parts of Colorado. including the behavior of wind plants during steady-state and dynamic conditions.
4 General Electric International (GE). system operating cost increases arising from wind variability and uncertainty amounted to about 10% or less of the wholesale value of the wind energy. South Dakota. However. U. these changes can be either more or less accommodating to the natural characteristics of wind power plants. has conducted a comprehensive study for New York State that examines the impact of 10% capacity penetration of wind by 2008 (Piwko et al." "During that time.1. at wind penetrations of up to 20% of system peak demand. The state of California has set the ambitious goal of achieving 20% of its electrical energy from renewable sources by 2010 and 30% by 2020 (CEC 2007). transmission planning. for example. achieving such penetrations is likely to require one or two decades. and Puget Sound Energy (PSE) in Washington expects to reach 10% capacity penetration shortly after 2010. These studies are yielding a wealth of information on the expected impacts of wind plants on power system operations. 4. Depending on the evolution of public policies.S. and Wisconsin). These conclusions will need to be reexamined as results of higher-wind-penetration studies—in the range of 25%–30% of peak balancing-area load—become available. The Midwest ISO (Independent System Operator) has examined the impact of achieving a wind energy penetration of 10% in the region by 2020. The state of Minnesota has studied wind energy penetration of up to 25% to be implemented statewide by 2020 (EnerNex Corporation 2006). 2006) also summarized these studies in cooperation with the three large utility trade associations—the Edison Electric Institute (EEI). and utility strategic plans. or high levels of wind energy. and system and market operations. The Utility Wind Integration Group (UWIG. other significant changes are likely to occur in both the makeup and the operating strategies of the nation's power system." 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 77 . 2005). MidAmerican Energy in Iowa has already exceeded 10%." "A variety of means—such as commercially available wind forecasting and others discussed below—can be employed to reduce these costs. technological capabilities. the American Public Power Association (APPA). The UWIG (2006) summary came to the following conclusions: z z z z "Wind resources have impacts that can be managed through proper plant interconnection. Xcel Energy could actually exceed 13% by the end of 2007.Dakota." "On the cost side.2 POWER SYSTEM STUDIES CONCLUDE THAT 20% WIND ENERGY PENETRATION CAN BE RELIABLY ACCOMMODATED Rapid growth in wind power has led a number of utilities in the United States to undertake studies of the technical and economic impacts of incorporating wind plants. Texas. into their electric systems. and the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). experience with studies on wind were reviewed in a special issue of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine (IEEE 2005). with 20% in Minnesota (Midwest ISO 2006). integration.
but rather as one component of a large. the studies indicate that the requirement for additional reserves will likely be modest for broadly distributed wind plants. Given the existing uncertainties in load forecasts." "Since wind is primarily an energy—not a capacity—source.500 MW of wind capacity on a 10. However. however. al. It is not necessary. Figure 4-1 shows a two-week period of system loads in the spring of 2010 for the Xcel system in Minnesota. system stability in response to a major plant or line outage can actually be improved by the addition of wind generation. taking into account the aggregate behavior of all of its loads and generation operating together. This increase. no additional generation needs to be added to provide back-up capability provided that wind capacity is properly discounted in the determination of generation capacity adequacy." Load. 2004). and to which the non-wind generation must respond. or economically feasible. Wind Generation. Although specific details vary. By way of illustration. For instance. dealing with large wind output variations and steep ramps over a short period of time could be challenging for smaller balancing areas. The actual impact of adding wind generation in different balancing areas can vary depending on local factors. The system must be operated with balance and reliability. Wind generation may require system operators to carry additional operating reserves. the electric system operator analyzes the regulation and load-following requirements of wind relative to other resources. It is critical to understand that output variability and uncertainty are not dealt with in isolation. Although wind plants exhibit significant variability and uncertainty in their output. wind generation penetration may affect the mix and dispatch of other generation on the system over time. To maintain system balance and security. since non-wind generation is needed to maintain system reliability when winds are low. This contribution is likely to be up to 40% of a typical project's nameplate rating. to counter each 78 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .000-MW peak-load system (Zavadil et. it is the resulting variability—load net of wind generation—that system operators must manage. is less than the isolated variability of the wind alone on all time scales of interest.z z 4 z "There is evidence that with new equipment designs and proper plant engineering. electric system operators already deal with these factors on similar time scales with current power system loads. Wind energy contributes some net increase in variability above that already imposed by cumulative customer loads. distribution of changes in the net load flattens and broadens when large-scale wind is added to the system. depending on local wind characteristics and coincidence with the system load profile. This system has 1. which begins with an analysis of the impact of the wind plant profiles relative to the utility load curve. and Reserves The first phase in determining how to integrate wind energy into the power grid is to conduct a wind integration study. Because both load and wind generation vary." "Wind generation will also provide some additional load carrying capability to meet forecasted increases in system demand. complex system. depending on the specific situation. The resulting reserve requirements can be predicted with statistical analysis.
"Load following" includes both capacity and energy services. The reserve determination starts with the assumption that wind generation and load levels are independent variables. al. A statistical analysis of the load net of wind indicates the amount of reserves needed to cope with the combination of wind and load variability. The resultant variability is the square root of the sum of the squares of the individual variables (rather than the arithmetic sum).50/MWh to the cost of the wind energy (Zavidil. this capacity would not be necessary because the pooling of resources across an electric system 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 79 . who must balance the total system. 2004). As a result. or all the wind plants aggregated together. or all the wind plants aggregated together in isolation from the load. allowing operators to maintain system balance. This time scale incorporates the morning load pick-up and evening load drop-off. Hourly load shapes with and without wind generation 4 movement of wind with a corresponding movement in a traditional energy source. and is provided by generators using automatic generation control (AGC). which range from seconds to days. et. Operational impacts of nondispatchable variable resources can occur in each of the time scales managed by power system operators. typically adding less than $0. the additional regulation burden has been found to be quite small. in isolation from the load. the net load of wind requires fewer reserves than would be required to balance the output of individual wind plants. This means that the system operator. needs a much smaller amount of reserves to balance the load net of wind.Figure 4-1. In the very short time frame. "Regulation" is a service that rapidresponse maneuverable generators deliver on short time scales. Given an ideally integrated grid. Higher reserves would be needed if that operator were to try to balance the output of individual wind plants. This typically occurs over a few minutes. The "scheduling" and "unit-commitment" processes ensure that sufficient generation will be available when needed over several hours or days ahead of the real time schedule. should be dedicated to supply backup or firming and shaping services to wind plants. or energy storage in the form of pumped hydro or compressed air. Some suggest that hydropower capacity. and generally varies from 10 minutes up to several hours. Figure 4-2 illustrates these time scales.
80 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Adding the two variables to estimate reserve requirements would result in an incorrect value of 40 MW. not an individual load or generation source in isolation. Say that system peak load for tomorrow is projected at 1.000 MW with a 2% forecast error. Time scales for grid operations 4 Source: Milligan et al. not just the wind capacity.e. or 1. Assuming that these are independent variables. The expected variability of peak wind generation. Attempting to balance an individual load or generation source is a suboptimal solution to the power system operations problem because it introduces unnecessary extra capacity and an associated increase in cost.41 × 20. it is the net system load that needs to be balanced. expected variability of peak load) equal to 20 MW. Again. which equals 28 MW). is 20 MW. then. Reserve Requirements Calculation A hypothetical example is offered to calculate reserve requirements. which makes the forecast error (i.. Hydro capacity and energy storage are valuable resources that should be used to balance the system.Figure 4-2. Wind generation for a 200-MW wind plant in that balancing area is predicted at a peak hour output of 100 MW with an error band of 20%. (2006) eliminates the need to provide costly backup capacity for individual resources. the total error is calculated as the square root of the sum of the squares of the individual variables (which is the square root of 2 × 20 squared.
Impact of wind on load-following requirements 4 Wind Integration Cost One impact of the variability that wind imposes on the system is an increase in the uncertainty introduced into the day-ahead unit-commitment process. or more load-management capability to offset the combined variability of load net of wind.00/MWh of wind generation at wind capacity penetrations up to 20%. Specifically.Figure 4-3 illustrates the incremental load-following impact of wind on an electrical system. however. The histograms show more high-ramp requirements with wind than without wind. For these illustrative summer and winter hours. and a general reduction in small-ramp requirements compared to the no wind case. creates a wider variability in the magnitude of load change between two adjacent hours. assuming that the wind turbine capacities have been appropriately derated. Figure 4-3. despite improvements in wind generation forecasting. These 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 81 . following load alone entails relatively fewer large-megawatt changes in generation (ramps). Following load net of wind generation. greater uncertainty remains about what the next day's load net of wind and resulting generation requirements will be. A system with wind generation needs more active loadfollowing generation capability than one without wind. These figures are shown in the Unit-Commitment Cost column of Table 4-1. The impact of these effects has been shown to increase system operating cost by up to $5. as determined in the work of Zavadil and colleagues (2004).
90 2. but the costs in the 20% Wind Scenario are expected to be less than 10% of the wholesale cost of energy (COE).26 3.32 na na na 1.97 Source: Adapted from IEEE (2005) day-ahead cost impacts are significantly higher than the others.S. reflecting the high cost of starting up generating units on a daily basis—even when they might or might not be needed.700 MW). the market and regulatory environment.6 3.15 0. contain more load-following resources.S. In the high-penetration Minnesota study (EnerNex 2006).45 1.09 0.5 15 35 (25% energy) 4 0 0.41 0.92 4. studies for capacity penetrations in the range between 20% and 35% have found that the additional reserves required to meet the intrahour variability are within the capabilities of the existing stack of units expected to be committed. namely that large operational structures reduce variability.72 4.75 3.02 0 0. 2004). Existing capacity is expected to cover these reserve needs. The wind integration issue is primarily a matter of cost. load growth could reduce this spare capacity without the construction of new dispatchable power plants.15 1. though. and the characteristics of the wind generation resources. 24 MW of additional load-following reserve.44 4.26 na na na 1.12 1. Handling large output variations and steep ramps over short time periods (e. studies. can be challenging for smaller balancing areas.S.69 1. their fuel cost. examined up to 25% energy penetration in the Midwest ISO market context (EnerNex 2006). The study found that the cost of wind integration is similar to that found in a study done two years earlier for a 15% wind capacity penetration in a vertically integrated market (Zavadil et al.26 1.41 na na 1.20 0. A comparison of these results illustrates the beneficial effect of regional energy markets.20 0. although over time.85 4. changes in total reserve requirements amounted to 7% of the wind generation needed to reach 25% wind energy penetration (5.g. The most recent study conducted for Minnesota. and 386 MW maximum of additional operating reserve to cover next-hour errors in the wind forecast. within the hour). These reserves included 20 MW of additional regulating reserve. Because wind and load are generally uncorrelated over 82 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .45 na na na na 4 29 20 10 15 1. Wind integration costs in the U.23 0.37 4.0 2.6 na na 0.. Date May 03 Sep 04 Nov 06 Xcel-UWIG Xcel-MNDOC MN/MISO July 04 CA RPS Multiyear Analysis We Energies We Energies PacifiCorp Xcel-PSCo Xcel-PSCo June 03 June 03 2005 April 06 April 06 4 Study Wind Capacity Penetration (%) Regulati Load on Cost Following ($/MWh) Cost ($/MWh) Unit Commitment Cost ($/MWh) Gas Supply Cost ($/MWh) Total Operating Cost Impact ($/MWh) 3. for example.Table 4-1. Wind Penetration Impacts U. and offer more useful financial mechanisms for managing the costs of wind integration. The impact of wind's variability depends on the nature of the dispatchable generation sources.60 4. Table 4-1 shows the integration cost results from recent U.
including the ability to limit plant output power at any given time. Modern wind plants can perform this function and supply voltage support for secure grid operations.3 WIND TURBINE TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IMPROVE SYSTEM INTEGRATION As described in more detail in the Wind Turbine Technology chapter. modern wind power plants have much in common with conventional utility power plants. GE turbine frequency response 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 83 . In the early days of wind power applications. With the increasing penetration of wind power. 4. The system operator will schedule sufficient spinning and nonspinning reserves so that unforeseen events do not endanger system balance.1. new plants are now capable of riding through a serious fault at the point of interconnection and are able to contribute to the supply of reactive power and voltage control. wind plants were often thought of as a curiosity or a nuisance. just like a conventional power plant. In addition. modern wind plants can be integrated into a utility's supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. 4 As grid codes are increasingly incorporating wind energy. and so that control performance standards prescribed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) are met. Figure 4-5 illustrates various control modes possible via SCADA participation. as do conventional power plants. most system operators recognize that wind plants can and should contribute to stable system operation during a disturbance. with the exception of variability in plant output. Figure 4-4 illustrates the ability of a wind power plant to increase its output (blue line) in response to a drop in system frequency (red line). These plants also have the ability to tap frequencyFigure 4-4. The supply of reactive power is a critical aspect of the design and operation of an interconnected power system. From a performance point of view. and carry spinning reserves as ordered (Saylors 2006). wind turbine technology has advanced dramatically in the last 20 years. They can provide frequency response similar to that of other conventional machines and participate in plant output control functions and ancillary service markets.short time scales. Operators were often asked to disconnect from the system during a disturbance and reconnect once the system was restored to stable operation. control ramp rate in moving up or down. the regulation impact of wind is modest.
(For definitions of faults.) System stability studies have shown that modern wind plants—equipped with power electronic controls and dynamic voltage support capabilities—can improve system performance by supporting postfault voltage recovery and damping power swings. A severe test of the reliability of a system is its ability to recover from a three-phase fault at a critical point in the system. however. GE wind plant controls 84 Modern wind plants can be added to a power grid without degrading system performance. In fact. they can contribute to improvements in system performance. the cost of operating wind units in this manner so as to provide ancillary services would have to be compared with the cost of furnishing such services by other means. a free energy resource. In this system. controlling variations in the bus voltage. voltage can be controlled across a broad range of wind conditions and power plant output. Wind plant control systems offer another mechanism for dealing with the variability of the wind resource. see the Glossary in Appendix E.Figure 4-5. even under widely varying wind speed conditions. which is that of "spilling" wind. Figure 4-6 shows an example of the voltage control features on a GE wind plant built recently in Colorado. Vestas wind turbine control capability 4 responsive reserves. Voltage disturbances at the point of interconnection (POI) on the remote bus trigger offsetting changes in the wind plant voltage. These control features come at a cost. Figure 4-6. In any given geographic area. Controllers can hold system voltage constant at a remote bus. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
The simulation assumed a 10% wind penetration (3. they manage voltage on the grid even when the turbine is not generating power.000-MW system) of wind turbines with doubly fed induction generators. It incorporated power electronics that allowed for independent control of real and reactive power. 2005). Detailed wind plant Figure 4-7.This performance is illustrated in Figure 4-7. The top half of the figure shows the quicker recovery and increased damping in the system voltage transient at the Marcy 345-kV bus. The bottom half of the figure similarly shows that the flow on the east interface has less overshoot and is more highly damped with wind. And because the power electronics capabilities of these wind turbines remain connected to the grid and respond to grid conditions with or without real power generation. which simulates a normally cleared three-phase fault on a critical 345-kV bus in New York State (the Marcy substation in central New York. as well as to improve the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 85 . 4 Utility planners use models to understand and represent the capabilities and performance of generators and transmission system assets. Piwko et al.300 MW on a 33. Impact of wind generation on system dynamic performance models that incorporate today's sophisticated wind turbine and plant control features are being used to study future system configurations.
Improved performance features are likely to be incorporated into wind models as the utility interface and control characteristics of wind turbines and wind plants continue to evolve. including the balancing energy. Variable-speed designs with power electronic controls are improving real and reactive power control within wind turbines under both transient and steadystate conditions. Piwko and colleagues (2005) found that a perfect wind forecast reduced annual variable production costs by $125 million.dk published the preliminary results of a study of the impact of meeting 100% of western Denmark's annual electrical energy requirement from wind energy (Pedersen 2005). The seamless integration of wind plant output forecasting—into both power market operations and utility control room operations—is a critical next step in accommodating large penetrations of wind energy in power systems. 4 4. would supply the deficit. Other energy sources. In the Pedersen study. assuming no transmission ties to outside power systems. The study showed that the system could absorb about 30% energy from wind without any excess (wasted) wind production. The operating impact with the largest cost is found in the unit-commitment time frame. They also inform the scheduling and market decisions necessary for dayahead planning. 4. Improved short-term wind production forecasts let operators make better day-ahead market operation and unit-commitment decisions.5 FLEXIBLE. Advanced forecasting systems can also help warn the system operator if extreme wind events are likely so that the operator can implement a defensive system posture if needed.4 WIND FORECASTING ENHANCES SYSTEM OPERATION System operators can significantly reduce the uncertainty of wind output by using wind forecasts that incorporate meteorological data to predict wind production. help real-time operations in the hour ahead. Forecasting allows operators to anticipate wind generation levels and adjust the remainder of generation units accordingly. And if wind generates 100% of the total energy demand of 26 terawatt-hours (TWh).1.1. the cost of electricity doubled when wind production reached 100% of the load. In 2005. Surplus wind energy starts to grow substantially after the wind share reaches 50%. Such systems yield both hour-ahead and day-ahead forecasts to support real-time operations. such as thermal plants. 8 TWh of the wind generation would be surplus because it would be produced during times that do not match customer energy use patterns. The models are critical tools that enable planners to understand wind plant capabilities and accurately determine the impact of wind plants on power system behavior. and warn operators about severe weather events. Wind turbine manufacturers and developers are giving a high priority to the development of improved models in response to the leadership of utility organizations such as the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). And a state-of-the-art forecast delivered 80% of the benefit of a perfect forecast. The study made very 86 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Energinet. DISPATCHABLE GENERATORS FACILITATE WIND INTEGRATION Studies and actual operating experience indicate that it is easier to integrate wind energy into a power system where other generators are available to provide balancing energy and precise load-following capabilities.power system performance of conventional technology.
if the addition of 100 MW of wind could meet an increase of 20 MW of system load at the target reliability level. however. The peak load of the system is 5. Wind is an energy resource. so it contributes greater capacity value to the system. not on a daily operating basis. Incorporating wind energy into power system planning and operation. the capacity value of this energy resource (effective load-carrying capacity [ELCC]) must be calculated using industry-standard reliability models. Because only a fraction of total wind capacity has a high probability of running consistently. such as the loss of load probability (LOLP) of 1 day in 10 years. If this system were planned with a nominal 15% reserve margin. however. But because the reality of droughts causes hydropower capacity to vary from year to year. will require new ways of thinking about energy resources. of no external ties or market opportunities for the excess wind energy. operation as a price-taker in a spot market. not a capacity resource. The ELCC of a generation unit is the metric used to determine its contribution to system reliability. Economic planning tools and probabilistic analytical methods must also be used to ensure that a bulk power system has adequate generation and transmission capacity while optimizing its use of energy resources such as wind and hydropower.6 INTEGRATING AN ENERGY RESOURCE IN A CAPACITY WORLD Wind energy has characteristics that differ from those of conventional energy sources. then. there is a dead calm over the area. It is important to recognize that wind does offer 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 87 . Many hydropower generators produce low-cost variable energy. For example. or a capacity value of 20% of its nameplate value.Effective Load Carrying Capability The ELCC is the amount of additional load that can be served at the target reliability level with the addition of a given amount of generation (wind in this case). wind generators have limited capacity value.1. On the peak load day of the year. This is essential for meeting the system planning reliability criterion. Consider the following example: There are 1. Traditional system planning techniques use tools that are oriented toward ensuring adequate capacity.000 MW. focus on reliability and capacity planning. Some combination of existing market mechanisms and utility unit-commitment processes must be used to plan capacity for day-to-day reliability. can make room for additional energy resources if they allow some flexibility for interconnection and operation. however. with an ELCC of 200 MW or a capacity value of 20%. This flexibility includes choice of interconnection voltage. and limited curtailment.000 MW of wind capacity in a concentrated geographic area. Planning techniques for a conventional power system focus on the reliable capacity offered by the units that make up the generation system. Capacity resources are those that can be available on demand. particularly to meet system peak loads. Unlike wind energy. The lost capacity is 200 MW (20% of 1. and the output of the wind plant is 0. The capacity value is used for system planning purposes on an annual basis. it would have an ELCC of 20 MW. it would have a planning reserve of 750 MW that would well exceed the reserves needed to replace the loss of the wind capacity at system peak load. most hydropower energy can be scheduled and delivered at peak times. Traditional planning methods.000 MW). 4 conservative assumptions. Most transmission systems. 4.
Nevertheless.000 MW of wind capacity have been installed in the United States.5% 20% for all sites in RMATS Sequential Monte Carlo (20%). In some cases. If wind has some capacity value for reliability planning purposes. capacity factor using 3-year rolling average (20%. that should be viewed as a bonus.m. capacity factor during July (5%) The lesser of 20% or 2/3 of January Capacity Factor Top 10% loads/month. lowemissions energy but not to meet load growth requirements. Full ELCC study using 10-year data gave average value of 12. The ELCC of wind generation. Although 12. Table 4-3 shows the capacity factors of different power plant types within the Midwest ISO for a year. depends primarily on the timing of the wind energy delivery relative to times of high system risk. (For more information on capacity terminology.. Reliability planning entails determining how much generation capacity of what type is needed to meet specified goals. 85th percentile not require 100% backup to ensure replacement capacity when the wind is not blowing. it does Table 4-2.m. Because wind is not a capacity resource. The units with the highest capacity factors—nuclear 88 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S. in some areas of the nation where access to generation and markets that spans wide regions has not developed. Wind is used when it is available. simplified methods are used to approximate the rigorous reliability analysis.some additional planning reserves to the system. see the Glossary in Appendix E. Wind power cannot replace the need for many "capacity resources. in July (2. -8 p." which are generators and dispatchable load that are available to be used when needed to meet peak load.8%) Sequential Monte Carlo (26%-34%) Offshore/land-based (40%/10%) PUC decision (10%). the wind integration process could be more challenging. median 33% (method not stated) 4 p. The capacity factor (CF) of a unit measures its actual energy production relative to its potential production at full utilization over a given time period.m. Methods to estimate wind capacity value in the U. The capacity value of wind has been shown to range from approximately 5% to 40% of the wind plant rated capacity. but not a necessity. and system reliability planning is then conducted with knowledge of the ELCC of the wind plant. Capacity in the form of combustion turbines or combined cycle units has been added to meet system reliability requirements for serving load. little or no backup capacity for wind energy has been added to date. fold in actual data when available) May change to capacity factor for the hours between 4 -6 p. which can be calculated with a standard reliability model. which can vary significantly. as shown in Table 4-2. Thinking in terms of "backing up" the wind is not appropriate because the wind capacity was installed to generate.) Plant capacity factors illustrate the roles that different power technologies play in a bulk power system. New Z-method 2006 Monthly 4-hour window. 4 Region/Utility CA/CEC PJM Method ELCC Peak Period ERCOT 10% MN/DOC/Xcel GE/NYSERDA CO PUC/Xcel ELCC ELCC ELCC RMATS PacifiCorp Rule of thumb ELCC MAPP PGE Idaho Power PSE and Avista SPP Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period Peak Period Note Rank bid evaluations for RPS (20%-25%) Jun-Aug HE 3 -7 p.m.
324 1. The plants with the lowest capacity factors (combined cycle.757 75 230 25.673 14.and gas-fired steam boilers) are operated as peaking and load-following plants and essential capacity resources.749.021.172 62 113 51.786. but all are necessary components of an economic and reliable system.014.646 1.197. Simply put.676.844 The greater the number of wind turbines operating in a given area.756 2.412 21.048 320. These results indicate that wind production changes very little over short time periods.292.436. As illustrated in Table 4-3. system operators in the United States have found that as more wind generating capacity is installed. Table 4-4 shows the average and standard deviation of step changes in wind plant output for different numbers of turbines over different time periods. As the time period increases from seconds to minutes to hours.790 15.200 77.256.882.734 27 17 11.048 11.018.895 104. the more wind turbines that are operating in a given period.155 448. In addition. the less their aggregate production variability.722.756 9 Oil ST 12 1.434 57 Wind 28 1.1.910 4 Other ST 10 345 3. Wind (30% CF) and hydro (27% CF) generate essentially free energy.116.948 137.896 560.288 3 Hydro 113 2.120 5.651.764.450 8 187 7.103 9. and oil. combustion turbines.868 14.129.776 2. <300 MW) Coal ST Coal (≥300 MW) Gas ST 20 1.488 65.960 576. Midwest ISO plant capacity factor by fuel type (June 2005–May 2006) Fuel Type Combined Cycle Number of Max Capacity (MW) Units Possible Energy (MWh) Actual Energy (MWh) Capacity Factor (%) 50 12.976 1.595.658.200.775 11 Gas Combustion Turbine (CT) Oil CT 275 21.108 71 Nuclear Coal Steam Turbine (ST.459 30 Total 1055 136. the combined output becomes less variable.696.7 AGGREGATION REDUCES VARIABILITY 4 Table 4-3.924. which gives an analysis of wind production variability as a function of an increasing number of aggregated wind turbines in a large wind plant in the Midwest (Wan 2005). 4.147. as a general trend. many resources in the system operate at far less than their rated capacity for much of the year.130 106.224 185. This is shown in Table 4-4. the output variability increases because it is driven by changes in weather patterns.432 222.257. so the wind is taken whenever it is available (subject to transmission availability) and the hydro is scheduled to deliver maximum value to the system (to the extent possible). 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 89 .771. the lower the production variability during that period.(75% CF) and coal (62% and 71% CF)—are the workhorses of the system because they produce relatively low-cost baseload energy and are fully dispatchable.
which should be conducted both before and after the wind generation is added. from plant to plant.1 0. Dev.7 2. as more wind turbines are installed across larger geographic areas.2 0. The benefits of geographical diversity can be seen in Figure 4-8.5 0.7 6. 10.1 2.1 2.Table 4-4.3 0. 4. A careful evaluation of integrating wind into current operations should include a determination of the magnitude and frequency of occurrence of changes in the net load on the system during the time frames of interest (seconds. will help determine the additional requirements on the balance of the generation mix. 5.4 5. and hours). and finally across both Minnesota and central North Dakota.4 0. 2.3 0.2 0. the aggregated wind generation becomes more predictable and less variable.1.1 1. and to a greater degree.7 Average 7. Dev. Because of the higher capacities of existing thermal plants and transmission lines. A considerable benefit is also realized across a broad mid-range of capacity factors from 20% to 80% (EnerNex 2006).3 Std.5 0. then across the entire state. This figure shows the operational capacity factor of wind turbines aggregated over successively larger areas—first over southwest Minnesota. Dev. Wind generation variability as a function of the number of generators and time interval 14 Turbines (%) 61 Turbines (%) 138 Turbines (%) 250+Turbines (%) Average 0.9 1-Second Interval 1-Minute Interval 4 10-Minute Interval 1-Hour Interval Note: This table compares output at the start and end of the indicated time period in terms of the percentage of total generation from each turbine group.0 4.8 0. 0.5 3. which shows the change in wind plant hourly capacity factor over one year for four different levels of wind plant aggregation. minutes. is the abbreviation for standard deviation. Similarly. This analysis. There is a decrease in the number of occurrences of very high and very low hourly capacity factors in the tails of the distribution as the degree of aggregation increases. Dev. Std.7 7.6 Average 3. This scenario would be prevented by spatial variations of wind from turbine to turbine in a wind plant. the loss of a wind plant will seldom be the single largest first contingency event for planning purposes.1 Average 1.2 0.7 7. then across southwest and southeast Minnesota.2 3.3 Std.5 9.8 GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION REDUCES OPERATIONAL IMPACTS Actual wind production data and sophisticated mesoscale weather modeling techniques have shown that a sudden and simultaneous loss of all wind power on a system is not a credible event.8 0. Severe weather events can lead to the loss of wind plant output as individual turbines trip off line and/or restart as a storm front 90 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .5 Std.1 Std.2 1. Dev.
see the Glossary in Appendix E. In some areas. rather than in seconds.1. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 91 . each system would need only 100 MW of reserves to cover contingency reserve requirements. In this example. If the generation and load are not in balance. in contrast. Balancing areas are an outgrowth of the evolution of power systems.S. Annual hourly capacity factor 4 passes through. and as another advantage. A small balancing area. each with a peak load of 3. mostly having to do with reliability and economics.) Today there are about 130 balancing areas in the U. had a single largest contingency (loss of a line or generator) of 300 MW. Consider this example: If three adjacent systems. each would carry 300 MW of reserves.000 MW. the amount of generation supplied must balance with the load instantaneously. If the three systems were interconnected.Figure 4-8. Systems became interconnected for a number of reasons. The largest is the PJM grid. operators can call on the most efficient and lowest cost producers available across the combined system and shift production away from more expensive units. The system-balancing function is performed by authorities who operate a portion of the system called a "balancing area. This approach ensures that the generation mix used to meet the aggregated system's changing load is always relatively more efficient. This kind of event happens on the time scale of tens of minutes to hours. the three interconnected systems are able to operate more efficiently at a reduced operating cost. 4. the system could potentially suffer a loss of either or lose stability and collapse. might be a small utility with a peak load of a few hundred megawatts.000 MW.000 MW because of diversity in the load of the three systems. and the single largest contingency was still 300 MW. the current patchwork nature of the grid resulted when a number of small isolated systems were combined into a single balancing area such as PJM. however. Overall. the peak load of the combined system would be less than 9." (For more information on balancing areas. which is part of the Eastern Interconnection with a peak load of 145.9 LARGE BALANCING AREAS REDUCE IMPACTS To maintain stable operation of the electric system. grid. Finally.
) 4. liquid real-time market is the most economical approach to providing the balancing energy required by wind plants with variable outputs (IEA 2005). access to balancing and related services is being pursued through instruments such as bilateral contracts and reserve-sharing agreements. In addition to providing reliability benefits. wind plant participation in day-ahead markets is important for minimizing total system cost. 2004) for a 92 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and dynamic scheduling of wind plants from a smaller to a larger balancing area. When wind blows strongly. The EnerNex (2006) study in Minnesota examined up to 25% energy penetration in the Midwest ISO market context (33% capacity penetration). real-time prices rise and dispatchable generators increase their output. The market allows energy from all generators across the area to be dispatched based on real-time prices. Price-responsive load markets and associated technologies are helpful components of a well-functioning electricity market. signaling more controllable generators to reduce their output and save costly fuel. with fines for rule violations. which allows the power system to better deal with increased variability. more wind generators are available to offset customer demands. Virtual balancing area consolidation can deliver the benefits of large-area aggregation without physically merging balancing areas under a single operator. The integration costs were similar to the results of a study done two years earlier (Zavadil et al. when wind drops off. overseen by FERC. As an example. when a system is operating across a larger area. Conversely. so there is a deep pool of generators that can ramp up and down in response to wind output. Similarly. the Midwest ISO covers a footprint of 15 states. A deep. As indicated previously.Wind units operate in a parallel situation across multiple balancing areas. The absence of a wind production forecast introduces significant costs into the day-ahead market.1. see the Glossary. sharing of area control error (ACE) data among several balancing areas. Virtual consolidation can be accomplished through reserve sharing or pooling across a group of utilities. As a result. making the resulting load net of wind less variable and more predictable. The resulting reliability standards. to enforce mandatory reliability standards. In some regions of the United States that lack centralized markets. These reliability requirements are likely to increase pressure on small balancing areas to consolidate. implemented by NERC. the real-time price falls. All these methods can help deal with the challenges of high penetrations of wind power. geographically dispersed wind units produce electricity more consistently and predictably.10 BALANCING MARKETS EASE WIND INTEGRATION Experience has shown that using well-functioning hour-ahead and day-ahead markets and expanding access to those markets are effective tools for dealing with wind's variability. consolidation of balancing areas offers economic advantages because it would reduce operating costs and lower the cost of increased penetration of wind power. include 4 z Operator training z Balancing authority performance criteria z Control room situational awareness capability z Control center hardware and software capability. The Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005 created an Electricity Reliability Organization (ERO). (For further explanation of ACE.
Technology and regulatory options that enable customer energy management are gaining momentum because of increasing support from electricity regulators. and supply access to low-cost remote resources. In addition. Construction and grid integration of large-scale nuclear and coal plants in the 1960s and 1970s entailed installing companion high-voltage interstate transmission lines. Transmission must be recognized as a critical infrastructure element needed to enable regional delivery and trade of energy resources.11 CHANGING LOAD PATTERNS CAN COMPLEMENT WIND GENERATION To date. During the past two decades. Wider use of price-responsive demand is expected to boost the competitiveness of wholesale electricity markets. Much wind generation occurs in hours when energy use is low. 4. Every era of new generation construction in the United States has been accompanied by construction of new transmission. and retail electricity providers. a significant amount of new transmission will be required. Two proposed off-peak electricity uses—deployment of plug-in hybrid vehicles with offpeak charging and production of hydrogen to power vehicles—could absorb much of this off-peak. enhance grid reliability. low-cost wind generation. much as the interstate highway system does for the nation's transportation needs. 4. Federal hydropower developments of the 1930s. 4 Several customer-driven energy trends could have a significant impact on wind development. which were needed to deliver the new generation to loads. the electric system has been planned and operated under the fundamental assumption that the supply system must perfectly meet every customer's energy use. and 1950s. as more customers gain the ability to practice automated price-responsive demand or to automatically receive and respond to directions to increase or decrease their electricity use. for example. although requiring less new electric transmission. and improve efficiency of resource use. Even the natural gas plants of the 1990s. relied on expansion of the interstate gas transportation network. system loads will be able to respond to. and that the demand is relatively uncontrolled. reduce costly congestion and line losses. included the installation of integral long-distance transmission owned by the federal government. or manage. Much of the current electric grid was built to deliver power from remote areas to load centers. including renewables. however. investment in gas-fired generation units located closer to load centers allowed the power system to grow 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 93 . Significant expansion of the transmission grid will be required under any future electric industry scenario. 1940s. variability from wind and other energy sources.2 FEASIBILITY AND COST OF THE NEW TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE REQUIRED FOR THE 20% WIND SCENARIO If the considerable wind resources of the United States are to be utilized. But this assumption is starting to change as policy makers work to create opportunities for customers to manage their energy use in response to price signals. Expanded transmission will increase reliability.1. regional transmission organizations (RTOs).15% wind capacity penetration in a structure without the regional Midwest ISO balancing market.
Kansas. see http://www. Annual transmission investments from 1975 through 1999 and projections through 2005 4 Transmission investment from investor-owned utilities and independent transmission companies climbed from $3. The 20% scenario of wind energy penetration would require continued transmission investment. Transmission investment lagged substantially behind that of previous decades because of uncertainty about the outcome of electricity restructuring. South Dakota.4 billion in 2009. it has been steadily climbing since the late 1990s .spp. with the figure growing to $8. Although transmission investment declined for two decades. These figures were down from investments of approximately $5.without major new transmission (Hirst and Kirby 2001). The average level of investment for the last half of the 1990s was under $3 billion per year. but new commitments to backbone transmission systems for major new generation. and projects are already under way. New Mexico. The steady increase in new transmission investment reflects not only catch-up in local transmission. Current or recent activities include z z z z z z 94 Planning by the Western Governors' Association's (WGA) Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee (CDEAC. 2006) The collaboration of Minnesota utilities in the Capital Expansion Plan for 2020 (CapX 2020. Nearly $8 billion of investment is expected in 2007.9 billion in 2006 (Eisenbrey 2007).com/) The creation of Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) by the state legislature in Texas (ERCOT 2006) The creation of state transmission or infrastructure authorities in Wyoming. as illustrated in Figure 4-9.0 billion per year in 2000 to $6. Many new transmission infrastructure studies.org) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . intra.capx2020.5 billion per year in the mid 1970s (adjusted for inflation). and increased reliability. Figure 4-9. plans.and inter-regional trade. and Colorado The proliferation of large interstate transmission projects in the West (WIEB 2007) The SPP "X Plan" and Extra High Voltage analysis (see http://www.
This transmission investment would access 68. This method. sources.800/kW). at a cost of approximately $20 billion in net present-value terms. the resulting cost would be approximately $120 per new kilowatt of wind developed.000 miles of additional transmission. The second type is backbone high-voltage transmission across long distances to deliver energy from production areas to load centers. the analysis added the typical cost of transmission needed to interconnect those resources to the capital cost. To account for the cost of transmission that would be required by coal and other resources. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 95 . Trunk-line transmission runs from areas with high-quality wind resources and often carries a high proportion of energy from wind and other renewable sources. such as the following: z The CDEAC evaluated a "high renewables" case and found that it would require an additional 3. more than 200. This represents about a 7% increase in the capital cost of wind development (based on capital costs for a wind energy facility of about $1.2. used the WinDS model to determine distances from the point of production to the point of consumption.578 line miles of transmission at a total cost of $15.z The Midwest ISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2006 (Midwest ISO 2006). if half of the transmission cost is assigned to wind. Much of that transmission would be required in later years after an initial period where generation is able to use the limited remaining capacity available on the existing transmission grid. This analytical approach is consistent with other recent or current studies and plans. the model finds that it would be cost-effective to build more than 12. The red lines represent general areas where new transmission capacity would be needed.1 A NEW TRANSMISSION SUPERHIGHWAY SYSTEM WOULD BE REQUIRED Wind energy development requires two types of transmission.6 GW of new fossil fuel generation. in addition to the existing transmission grid illustrated by green lines. In fact. 4 To determine how much transmission would be needed for the 20% Wind Scenario. The approach. and shippers—just as a highway carries all types of vehicles traveling a range of distances. These superhighways mix power from many generating areas. described in appendices A and B. the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was used (see Appendix D).4 GW of renewable generation (predominantly wind) and 84.000 miles of transmission lines are currently operating at 230 kV and above. is only a first step. 4. When determining whether it is more efficient to site wind projects close to load or in higher quality wind resources areas that are remote from load and require transmission. More work must be done in regional transmission planning processes to evaluate the transmission required for the desired portfolio of resources. As a point of comparison. Transmission required for the 20% Wind Scenario can be seen in the red lines on the map in Figure 4-10. as well as the cost-effectiveness of building wind plants close to load or in remote locations and paying the transmission cost.2 billion (CDEAC 2006). although providing balance in the overall cost assessment. the WinDS optimization model finds that it is often more efficient to site wind projects remotely. Under the CDEAC analysis.
ERCOT. a large utility and transmission owner/operator. produced a conceptual transmission plan to integrate 20% electricity from wind.800/kW 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . along with 5. This estimate is close to the WinDS model estimate (AEP.000 miles of new 765-kv transmission line at a discounted or net present value cost of $26 billion. The Midwest ISO recently studied the costs of developing 16.5 billion. depending on the distance required. the annual benefits of reduced natural gas costs from new transmission and development of wind generation were between $444 and $478 million (Midwest ISO 2003).600 MW of wind energy.000 MW of wind within its system.640 MW of new wind energy online. The conceptual plan provides for 19. AEP. the independent transmission operator for most of Texas.000 miles of new 765-kV transmission lines to deliver the wind from the Dakotas to the New York City area.000 MW to 4. or about 10% of the $1. Conceptual new transmission line scenario by WinDS region 4 z z z 96 The Midwest ISO compared the benefits and costs of bringing 8. the project produced annual savings of $600 million over its costs. Using a natural gas price of $5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu. The transmission cost averages $180/kW of wind energy. Although the overall generation and transmission costs reached an estimated investment of $13 billion. evaluated 12 options to build transmission for additions of 1. ERCOT found that the transmission addition would cost between $15 million and $1. 2007).Figure 4-10. These savings are in the form of lower wholesale power costs and prices in the eastern part of the Midwest ISO footprint—such as Ohio and Indiana—resulting from greater access to lower cost generation in the western states such as Iowa and the Dakotas. well below 2007 prices).
In addition.38 billion. It should be noted that wind transmission cost estimates remain highly uncertain. however. using 2005 equipment costs (CDEAC 2006). For example.150 MW to 18. z In another study analyzing transmission costs. Building additional transmission to reach more wind resources and more loads would raise the marginal cost by 20% to $60/MWh. More than 100 GW of new wind capacity could be developed at that price. ERCOT recently updated their earlier study and found that for additions of 5.000 MW of wind energy. sizable net reductions in the cost of delivering bulk electricity to load centers could be achievable. As the studies described here demonstrate. Figure 4-11. This analysis showed that the western states can build 30 GW of wind capacity that can be delivered at a price of $50/MWh (counting both generation and transmission costs). for the weakest investment of the 12 analyzed by ERCOT. The benefits available from such transmission are often reported in terms of annual savings to consumers and the reduced cost of energy production.95 billion and $6. 4 Clearly. Cumulative savings versus total transmission cost for renewable energy zone (worst case) Source: ERCOT (2006) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 97 . meeting this challenge could be economically and technically feasible. the transmission addition would cost between $2. The graph in Figure 4-11 illustrates the cumulative benefits in the Texas study. the CDEAC Wind Task Force used NREL's WinDS geographic information system (GIS) database to create wind energy supply curves for many states in the western United States.capital cost (ERCOT 2006). or in the range of $350/kW to $570/kW (ERCOT 2008). significant additional transmission capacity would be required to integrate high levels of wind across the country.
Transmission Planning Currently. Regardless of wind's role. then. but transmission developers are equally reluctant to step forward until generator interconnection requests have been filed (the "chicken or the egg" conundrum). 890 (FERC 2007). the rate impact of the transmission portion of the 20% Wind Scenario could be as low as $1. The cost of new transmission. the net costs might turn out to be not much greater in the portfolio context than the transmission costs of traditional fossil fuel resources. 900 miles of new transmission would cost approximately $3.2. Order No. a high-cost area for new transmission construction (Pfirrmann 2005). As long as load continues to grow. as suggested by the NREL analysis. In any case. when federal open access rules required the separation of transmission and generation businesses. which are now required by FERC's recently enacted ruling. An investment of approximately $60 billion (in undiscounted terms) in transmission between now and 2030. More details on each area are given in the following subsections. amounts to an expenditure of approximately $3 billion per year over the next 22 years. The 20% Wind Scenario would require a generic change in the way transmission planning is done in many areas of the country. where several 765-kV projects have been proposed.30 per residential customer per month. and incremental transmission costs will be unavoidable.2 OVERCOMING BARRIERS TO TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT Barriers to transmission investment include: z Transmission planning z Allocation of the costs of new transmission investments z Assurance of cost recovery z Siting of new transmission facilities. might not be excessive or prohibitive for customers. not just wind. Current transmission investment level is nearly $8 billion per year and growing. The effects of this separation on planning can be reduced through open.1 cent/kWh in amortized rates for consumers in the PJM system. 4 In the mid-Atlantic region. But this cost would be partially offset by the benefits of access to lower cost resources and enhanced reliability. most analysts believe that this figure will continue to increase as utilities make up for decades of underinvestment in the grid. Under optimistic assumptions. Once the marginal transmission cost for wind is balanced against its low energy cost and environmental impacts. Most highvoltage transmission additions serve multiple generation resources. 4. investment in transmission will be needed as well. Numerous parties across a wide 98 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .Developing any major new generation sources in remote or semiremote locations will require new transmission to deliver the energy to loads. new transmission will be required to serve any new generation developed. Most electric utilities planned generation and transmission in an integrated process until the 1990s.5 billion. given optimistic assumptions. or 0. transparent transmission planning processes. and as long as electricity demands grow. generation companies are reluctant to commit to a new generation project unless it is clear that transmission will be available.
allowing for new generation and the associated economic development. State agencies sometimes reject interstate transmission proposals if it appears that they would not result in significant benefits for intrastate residents. FERC is responsible for determining how transmission costs are to be allocated. In such situations. and diversified resource areas to meet state goals. for example. Cost Recovery A new transmission facility. Some transmission companies have been more effective than others at obtaining local input. however. FERC has typically reviewed generic cost allocation plans proposed by these organizations and approved the plans with modifications the commission finds appropriate. identifying and dealing with landowners' concerns. and approves or rejects them. Best practices in this area need to be identified and broadly applied. Minnesota. FERC and state regulatory approval of a cost allocation plan and a rate of return on the investment are essential. FERC reviews the proposals. are leaders in renewable energy development. 4 Under the Federal Power Act. South Dakota. Texas. This concern led Congress to include a provision in the 2005 EPAct that establishes a federal 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 99 . public good status cannot be achieved unless some government agency determines how the costs are to be allocated and is able to enforce that allocation. Local owners. In areas without RTOs or ISOs. but success will depend on collaborative followthrough at the regional level. 890 is a large step toward this regional joint planning approach. regardless of need or merit. prospective transmission developers propose cost allocation arrangements to FERC on a project-by-project basis. FERC's Order No. will not be built until the participating utilities (and the financial community) have a very high degree of certainty that the cost of the facility will be recoverable in a predictable manner. Kansas. and New Mexico have also established new authorities to spur investment in additional transmission infrastructure. Local opposition to proposed transmission lines is often a major challenge to transmission expansion. and providing access to lower cost resources. An AC transmission line typically benefits all users along its path by increasing reliability. For regions with RTOs or ISOs. This approach yields major economies of scale in that all users would benefit by pooling solutions to their needs into a single plan that would be more productive in regional terms than simply summing the needs of individual organizations. Wyoming. North Dakota.geographic area would need to collaborate on developing a common plan instead of individual entities planning in isolation. do not always value such benefits and frequently have other concerns that must be addressed. and selecting routes. clean. parties might have incentives to avoid paying their fair share of the costs. calls for additional information if needed. Colorado. Accordingly. Transmission Siting Creating RE Models for New Transmission A few states that have good wind resources and RPS laws have decided to expand their states' transmission in advance of generation to enable the modular development of location-constrained. Cost Allocation Transmission is often a "public good"─ meaning that its benefits are widely dispersed and that some parties can enjoy these benefits without incurring direct costs. and have created renewable energy models for new transmission. and California. or approves them with certain conditions attached.
New York. and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP). particularly in terms of its adoption and integration within power system operations. the new transmission infrastructure would also increase energy security.e. which can be invoked if the U. 4. It is certainly possible that other regions could pursue such reforms by 2030.1 EXPANDING MARKET FLEXIBILITY The 20% Wind Scenario would be aided by the development of or access to energy spot markets where participants who have an excess or shortfall of power could trade at competitive prices that reflect the marginal cost of balancing load."backstop" transmission siting authority. Broad geographical markets and interarea trading would allow the benefits of geographic dispersion and aggregation of wind plant output to be realized.3 U. The challenge is that energy spot markets have been subject to opposition as market prices have risen because of higher fuel costs. Expanding from approximately 12 GW at the time of this writing to over 300 GW will require most or all of these changes. Department of Energy (DOE) has designated the relevant geographic area as a "national interest electric transmission corridor" (i. 4 4. enable open.3.3 MAKING A NATIONAL INVESTMENT IN TRANSMISSION The 20% Wind by 2030 Scenario would require widespread recognition that there is national interest in ensuring adequate transmission. New England. POWER SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND MARKET STRUCTURE EVOLUTION The lessons summarized from research done to date illustrate a number of changes that would facilitate reaching 20% wind energy penetration. 4. showing the feasibility of such reforms. fair. and competitive wholesale power markets. equipped with state-of–the-art wind resource forecasting tools that would be fully integrated with power system operations. which makes a market-based approach and trading system all the more worthwhile. and an affected state has withheld approval of a proposed transmission facility in the National Corridor for more than one year. a "national corridor"). Such markets were recently implemented in the 15-state Midwest ISO region. This section summarizes the operational and market features that would support the 20% Wind Scenario. and enhance price stability through fuel diversity. still need to be trained to operate systems with high wind penetration and to use forecasting and operations tools that predict and respond to wind plant output fluctuations. Expanding the country's transmission infrastructure would support reliability of the power system. 100 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . These features are also important to the long-term sustainability of the electric industry. These benefits have been shown to reduce the variability of wind plant output on a large scale.2 ENHANCING WIND FORECASTING AND SYSTEM FLEXIBILITY The 20% Wind Scenario would require highly trained power system operators.3. and grant owners and operators access to low-cost resources.S.. however. reduce GHG emissions. Some power system dispatchers.2. 4. the midAtlantic PJM region. Forecasting is spreading rapidly and improving significantly. Although built to enable access to wind energy.S.
pdf Cardinal. Increased flexibility would accommodate variations in technology choices. and regional characteristics. Wind Report 2004. June 4–7. http://www. CDEAC (Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee). Pittsburgh. Neubarth. Chichester. under FERC Order 890 (FERC 2007). and more robust high-voltage transmission grid than the one in place today.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/EonWindReport2004. PA.westgov.pdf Bouillon. Fösel. Intermittency Analysis Project: Final Report. market rules. J. http://www. Winter. California Energy Commission. and distributed energy resources would need to be standardized and integrated with market and customer operations.wind watch. CO: CDEAC.. Bayreuth. 2007. AEP (American Electric Power).pdf CEC (California Energy Commission). UK: Wiley Europe Ltd. which would allow for resources such as wind to be better integrated into the grid. 4. T. smart systems. Miller. 2004. http://www. "Grid Friendly Wind Plant Controls: WindCONTROL – Field Test Results. more flexible. 2007. 4 The 20% Wind Scenario would require end users to be able (via price signals and technology) to respond to system needs by shifting or curtailing consumption. Information technologies for distributed intelligence. all regions are now required to develop "conditional firm" services.ON Netz. There would need to be enough dispatchable units to balance the system as fluctuations occur in wind plant output and load. and smart appliances that take energy from the grid during low-load periods. and W. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 101 .com/about/i765project/docs/windtransmissionvisionwhitepa per.4 REFERENCES AND OTHER SUGGESTED READING Ackermann. P. M. Greater robustness would help ensure future reliability. Timeshifting of demand would help reduce today's large difference between peak and off-peak loads and encourage more flexible loads." Presented at WindPower 2006. These practices would smooth electricity demand and open a larger market for off-peak wind energy. dispatchable. Interstate Transmission Vision for Wind Integration. resource mixes. H. Greater reliance on flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices and wide-area monitoring and control systems would be necessary. the 20% Wind Scenario would require the use of the existing fleet of flexible. In addition. Denver. controls. 2005. 2006.To achieve balance in a power system using wind energy. Regions with RTOs have "financial transmission rights" that are more flexible than capacity reservations and allow for payment based on usage. Germany: E. Combined Heat and Power White Paper.org/wga/initiatives/cdeac/CHP-full.aep. Transmission services vary across regions in the United States. The 20% Wind Scenario would require a smarter. hydrogen production. 2006. such as plug-in hybrid cars. Wind Power in Power Systems.. mainly gas-fired generators designed for frequent and rapid ramping. sensors. and N. July 2007.
org/Dena-2005_English. Orths. Strong Upward Trend in T&D Investment Continued in 2006.ac.ercot. A. 2006. http://www. Cologne. Volumes I and II. 2006.pdf EWEA (European Wind Energy Association). R.state. Invited panel paper No.pdf FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission). UK: Energy Research Centre. Washington.uni duisburg.energy.com/news/presentations/2006/ATTCH_A_CREZ_Analysi s_Report. http://www. ERCOT's Competitive Renewable Energy Zone Transmission Optimization Study. Heptonstall.ercot. "Integrating Dispersed Generation into the Danish Power System – Present Situation and Future Prospects. M..S. I. P. June 20.pdf Eisenbrey. Erlich.de/FB9/EAUN/downloads/papers/paper_030706-02. and A.uk/ImportedResources/PDF/06/0604_Intermittency_re port_final. ISBN 1 90314 404 3.mn. P. Skea. E. 2007.pdf ERCOT (Energy Reliability Council of Texas). Germany: Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH..pdf Gross.com/news/press_releases/2008/nr04-02-08.gov/pier/final_project_reports/CEC-500-2007 081. EEI Energy Data Alert.ercot. http://www. Green.us/docs/#electric 4 ERCOT (Energy Reliability Council of Texas). 060428. Analysis of Transmission Alternatives for Competitive Renewable Energy Zones in Texas. 2005. Montreal: IEEE. and V." Presented at the IEEE Power Engineering Society (PES) Meeting. 2006. Anderson. Wind Power Installed in Europe by End of 2006 (Cumulative). Kirby. DC: EEI.ukerc.ewea. Austin: ERCOT. London. http://www. 2008. DC: FERC.gov/industries/electric/indus act/oatt-reform/order-890/fact-sheet. 2001.uwig. Winter. Austin: ERCOT. Electric Industry. Knoxville. and B. 2007.. http://www. Washington. Onshore and Offshore by 2020. The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency: An Assessment of the Evidence on the Costs and Impacts of Intermittent Generation on the British Electricity Network. ERCOT's Competitive Renewable Energy Zone Transmission Optimization Study. 102 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . http://www. 2006. Final Report: 2006 Minnesota Wind Integration Study.. D. T. Order No. C.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/ publications/statistics/070129_Wind_map_2006. 890 Final Rule: Preventing Undue Discrimination and Preference in Transmission Service. Dittrich.html Eriksen. DC: Edison Electric Institute (EEI). Advanced Grid Requirements for the Integration of Wind Turbines into the German Transmission System.ca. Washington. TN: EnerNex.ferc.pdf Hirst. Montreal. Leach. http://www. EnerNex Corporation.html ERCOT (Energy Reliability Council of Texas). Akhmatov.com/news/press_releases/2008/nr04-02-08. Austin: ERCOT.http://www. http://www. Energy Management Planning for the Integration of Wind Energy into the Grid in Germany. W. 2008. http://www. 2007.html Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena). 2006. Transmission Planning for a Restructuring U.puc. and J.
Espoo.eei. The Blue Ribbon Panel on Cost Allocation. http://conserveland. Denmark: Energinet. and D. Pittsburgh.nyserda. M.C. N.org/Ewec06gridpaper. B. http://www. Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan. IEEE Power and Energy Magazine Special Issue: Working with Wind. L.L.org/pp/Transmission/testimony_mtneer. H.org/industry_issues/energy_infrastructure/transmission/trans mission_hirst.org Midwest ISO.pdf Holttinen. Midwest ISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2003. General Electric International. Paris: IEA. http://www.pdf Saylors. Washington.asp. 238389. Fredericia. 4 Milligan. and Operations. 19(2): 91–99. A National Perspective on Allocating the Costs of New Transmission Investment: Practice and 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 103 . "Wind Park Solutions to Meet Expectations of Grid System Planners and Operators. K.pdf IEEE.com/publications/wind_integration_report. and J. Integrating Wind into the Power System. 2006.uwig. Portland. Ahlstrom. http://www. 2005. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)." Presented at WindPower 2006. Westborough.org/Textbase/Papers/2005/variability. Schenectady. K.midwestmarket. Northwest Power and Conservation Council. (3:6).iea. Xinggang. 2007. 2005. Golden. Reliability. M. June 4–7. NY: Prepared for The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) by Power Systems Energy Consulting. R. PJM Testimony Promoting Regional Transmission Planning and Expansion to Facilitate Fuel Diversity Including Expanded Use of Coal-Fired Resources. Finland: VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland. and K. Jordan. http://www. Report No. 2003. Midwest ISO Transmission Expansion Plan 2006. B. http://www. http://www. Smith. Zavadil. http://www. Report No. Clark. 2006. Porter. Midwest ISO (Independent Transmission System Operator). Variability of Wind Power and Other Renewables: Management Options and Strategies..org/energy/Wind/library/2007-1." Electricity Journal.vtt. AD05-3-000.fi/inf/pdf/publications/2004/P554. Schuerger. http://www. DC: PJM Interconnection. 2004. M. 2005. 2006. B. Inc.pdf Piwko. R. DeMeo.com/transmission/c3-3_documents. NREL/CP-500-39955.org National Grid. M. Oakleaf. 2005. Miller.nwcouncil. FERC Docket No. 2005.nationalgridus.http://www.pdf. J.midwestmarket. PA. Parsons.. J. Grid Impacts of Wind Variability: Recent Assessments from a Variety of Utilities in the United States. System and Market Changes in a Scenario of Increased Wind Power Production.dk. November–December. E. Nakafuji. ISBN 951-38-6426-X. 2006.C. Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan Steering Committee. Milligan.pdf IEA (International Energy Agency).htm Pedersen. 2007. Transmission and Wind Energy: Capturing the Prevailing Winds for the Benefit of Customers. 2006. Zimberlin. G. MA: National Grid. S. Pfirrmann. Wolf. K. The Effects of Integrating Wind Power on Transmission System Planning. The Impact of Large Scale Wind Power Production on the Nordic Electricity System. OR: Northwest Power and Conservation Council. "Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation.
2004.pdf. Reston. Y. and Recommendations. Ahlstron. B. A white paper prepared for WIRES (Working Group for Investment in Reliable and Economic Electric Systems). Issues. Western Transmission Expansion. King.pdf. Xiadon. Brussels.wiresgroup.com/resources/industry_reports/1Blue%20Ribbon% 20Panel%20-%20Final%20Report. R. Knoxville. http://www. http://nrelpubs. Van Hulle.org/fileadmin/ewea_documents/documents/publications/gr id/051215_Grid_report. Denver. Primer on Wind Power for Utility Applications.ht m Zavadil. Utility Wind Integration State of the Art. J. Belgium: EWEA. CO: NREL. Finley.nrel.. http://www.uwig. VA: UWIG. 104 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Large Scale Integration of Wind Energy in the European Power Supply: Analysis.org/UWIGWindIntegration052006. CO: WIEB. 4 Wan. et al. Lee.pdf UWIG (Utility Wind Integration Group). F. TN: EnerNex and WindLogics. http://www. Wind Integration Study – Final Report. L. M.org/wieb/electric/Transmission%20Expansion/index. 2005. D. Report No.westgov. TP-500 36230. 2007. 2006. C.gov/Webtop/ws/nich/www/public/SearchForm WIEB (Western Interstate Energy Board). Moon.Principles.ewea. http://www.. 2005.Golden. Prepared for Xcel Energy and the Minnesota Department of Commerce.
wind power facilities need to adhere to high standards for environmental protection. the wind energy industry and various government agencies would need to scale up their permitting and review capabilities. a 20% windgenerated electricity scenario in the United States could be feasible by 2030. If demand increases and annual installations of wind energy approach 10 gigawatts (GW) and more. hundreds of wind projects have been successfully permitted and sited. negatively affect wildlife habitat and individual species. there is growing market acceptance of wind energy. and hazardous waste storage associated with using fossil fuels. Although the wind energy industry must continue to address significant environmental and siting challenges. but siting wind plants can raise concerns in local communities. wind energy generation does not degrade the quality of our air and water and can make important contributions to reducing climate change effects and meeting national energy security goals. Compared to conventional fossil fuel energy sources. If challenges are resolved and institutions are adaptive. it avoids environmental effects from the mining. In addition. Successful project developers typically work closely with communities to address these concerns and avoid or reduce risks to the extent possible. Wind plant siting and approval processes can accommodate increased rates of installation while addressing environmental risks and concerns of local stakeholders.1 5 WIND ENERGY TODAY Wind energy is one of the cleanest and most environmentally neutral energy sources in the world today.Chapter 5. especially compared with other forms of electricity production. Not all issues can be fully resolved and not every prospective site is appropriate for development. As 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 105 . but engaging local leaders and the public is imperative. however. and measures to mitigate prospective impacts may be required. Wind Power Siting and Environmental Effects The 20% wind energy by 2030 scenario offers substantial positive environmental impacts in today's carbon-constrained world. As with all responsible industrial development. Various agencies and stakeholders must also be involved in reviewing and approving projects. To date. Wind energy generally enjoys broad public support. 5. Wind energy production can also. Wind energy offers many ecosystem benefits. drilling.
Moreover. public perceptions about the industry. incomplete scientific understanding of basic processes. a public service commission.1 SITE-SPECIFIC AND CUMULATIVE CONCERNS About 10% to 25% of proposed wind energy projects are not built—or are significantly delayed—because of environmental concerns. the potential risks are not commensurate between wind energy and other sources. The wind industry may encounter difficulties entering a competitive energy marketplace if it is subject to requirements that competing energy technologies do not face. Wind energy developments usually require permits or approvals from various authorities. 5. Complex societal decisions about risk typically involve some level of uncertainty. The results of these studies guide jurisdictional decisions. renewable energy could contribute 30% to 35% of the world's electricity supply by 2030 (IPCC 2007). Because a great deal of experience exists to inform decision making in such circumstances. This chapter reviews environmental concerns associated with siting wind power facilities. such 106 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . this attitude does not always translate into early support for local projects. These entities request information from a project developer—usually in the form of environmental impact studies before construction—to understand potential costs and benefits. Risks associated with wind power facilities are relatively low because few of the significant upstream and downstream lifecycle effects that typically characterize other energy generation technologies are realized. Although public support for wind energy is generally strong. and potential approaches to addressing remaining challenges. or another political body (described in more detail in Section 5.g.1. regulatory frameworks. 5 Local stakeholders generally want to know how wind turbines might affect their view of their surroundings and their property values. Weighing these risks and benefits raises questions about the best management approaches and strategies. where the life-cycle impacts (e. under certain conditions. In addition. Although most wind energy installations around the United States pose only minor risks to the local ecology or communities. For many government agency officials. and very few developers make decisions with complete information (Stern and Fineberg 1996). whether positive or negative. This is in contrast to fossil fuel and nuclear projects. modeling limitations. however. the central issue is whether wind energy projects pose risks to the resources or environments they are required to protect.5). acid rain and nuclear wastes) would be widely dispersed geographically. some uncertainties remain.noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).. No single agency considers all impacts. and changing societal or management contexts.. residual uncertainties about environmental risks need not unduly hinder wind energy project development. Site-specific concerns often create tension surrounding new energy facilities of any kind. They want to know the net cumulative environmental impact (e. emissions reductions versus wildlife impacts) of using 20% wind power in the United States. such as a county board of supervisors. Uncertainty can arise from inadequate data. A single lead agency might consider the entire life-cycle effects of a wind energy project. Further research and knowledge development will enable some of these uncertainties to be mitigated and make risks more manageable. they might be concerned about the impact on birds and other wildlife.g.
and Dobson 2007). birds in the tropics will decline from continued deforestation. Developing effective approaches to gaining the public's acceptance of risks is a necessary first step toward siting wind energy facilities. as well as many compared with the current U. These analyses would need to examine the broader context of the potential adverse effects of wind power on human health and safety (minimal). 5 A primary benefit of using wind-generated electricity is that it can play an important role in reducing the levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted into the atmosphere. extinction of species would be in the 11% to 34% range (Thomas et al. 5. Wind-generated electricity is produced without emitting CO2. A recent article found that 950 to 1. Wind energy. 2004). A 2004 study in Nature average utility fuel mix.600 million metric tons by 2030 (see assumptions outlined in appendices A and B). can be widely deployed across the United States and around the world to begin reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) now. The future for birds in a world of global climate change is particularly bleak. visibility. Today. especially their colliding with turbines. cause 19% to 45% of global species to become extinct.700 metric tons of CO2 per 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 107 . and aesthetics in relation to the alternatives. or the forecast that a midrange estimate of climate warming could equivalent of planting 4 square. the GHG that is the major cause of global climate change. Even kilometers of forest every year when minimal temperature increases and climate changes are (AWEA 2007). ecology.S. CO2 emissions in the United States approach 6 billion metric tons annually. they must be viewed in the larger context of the broader threats posed by climate change. The acceptability of risks will vary among communities and sites. or a cumulative total of 7.2. The IPCC recently concluded that A single 1. other natural systems (IPCC 2007). which holds significant promise for reducing these impacts. projected. Wilcove. the country could avoid putting 825 million metric tons of CO2 annually into the atmosphere by 2030. nuclear and fossil fuels and comparative impact analyses are not readily available. If the United States obtained 20% of its electricity from wind energy. Although this is a valid environmental concern that needs to be addressed. which exacerbates global climate change and land conversion (Jetz. so it is important to understand these differences and build broad public engagement. Species in higher latitudes will experience more effects of climate change. the larger effects of global climate change also pose significant and growing threats to birds and other wildlife species.as.5-MW wind turbine displaces 2. Although the effects of wind energy development on wildlife should not be minimized. A relatively straightforward metric used to understand the carbon benefits of wind energy is that a single 1.1 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND CARBON REDUCTIONS Publicity related to wind power developments often focuses on wind power's impact on birds.5-MW wind turbine global climate change caused by human activity is likely to displaces 2. 39% of which are produced when electricity is generated from fossil fuels (see Figure 5-1.800 terrestrial bird species are imperiled by climate changes and habitat loss.2 ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS 5. EIA 2006).700 tons of CO2 per year seriously affect terrestrial biological systems.
using wind instead of gas reduces CO2 emissions by 98%. wind energy's CO2 emissions are extremely low—about 1% of those from coal. 65% of the energy displaced would be from natural gas. average utility fuel mix. In other words. wind energy is likely to offset more coal by reducing the need to build new coal plants. 2005). 1998) found that when these emissions are analyzed on a lifecycle basis.Figure 5-1. and mercury. Moreover. Coal-fired power plants are the largest industrial source of mercury emissions in the United States (NESCAUM 2003). Regardless of the actual fuel supplanted. a study prepared for the independent system operator (ISO) found that if wind energy provided 10% of the state's peak electricity demand. and electricity imported from out of state at 10% (Piwko et al. wind power generation is not a direct source of regulated pollutants such as nitrogen oxides. natural gas is the primary fuel displaced.S. more electricity generated from wind turbines means that other nonrenewable. Electricity production is responsible for 39% of CO2 emissions in the United States Source: EIA (2006) year compared with the current U. or the equivalent of planting 4 square kilometers of forest every year (AWEA 2007).2 IMPROVING HUMAN HEALTH THROUGH REDUCED AIR EMISSIONS Switching to a zero-emissions energy-generation technology like wind power contributes to cleaner and healthier air. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (EPA 2007) and the American Medical Association (AMA) note that fetal exposure to methylmercury has been linked to problems with neurological development in children (AMA Council on Scientific Affairs 2004). manufacturing wind turbines and building wind plants generate only minimal amounts of CO2 emissions. In most places. The U. 5. Wind energy can displace coal on electric grids with large amounts of coal-fired generation. fossilbased fuels are not being consumed. or 2% of those from natural gas per unit of electricity generated. followed by coal at 15%. 5 The fuel displaced by wind-generated electricity depends on the local grid and the type of generation supply. In New York. oil at 10%. using wind instead of coal reduces CO2 emissions by 99%. One university study that examined the issue (White and Kulsinski. sulfur dioxide. 108 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . In addition.2. In the future. for example.S.
damage to the lungs. Most ethanol plants have demonstrated a reduction in water use in recent years. the eight states in this region are seeing water for power production compete with other uses. And more than 76.Furthermore. hydropower. stressed areas the option of economically meeting growing energy needs without increasing demands on valuable water resources. Wind energy has the potential to In contrast. such as irrigation. and aggravation of respiratory illness. These plants were responsible for 48% of all total water withdrawals in 2000. which has been shown to increase heart attacks. and municipal water supplies. as illustrated in Table 5-1. almost half of all Americans live in counties where unhealthy levels of smog place them at risk for decreased lung function. resources that are interlinked. or other sources is returned. Faced with water shortages. Especially in arid regions. Much of the water withdrawn from streams. the authors estimate that significant savings from wind energy are possible. respiratory infection. As the United States seeks to lessen the use of foreign oil for fuel. but about 9%—totaling about 68 billion liters per day—is consumed in the process. Some 58. Even some renewable technologies place a demand on water resources. communities are increasingly facing challenges with water and electric power shortages. lakes. A non-governmental organization report entitled The Last Straw: Water Use by Power Plants in the Arid West.7 liters of water consumed per 3. it may offer communities in waterwater reservoirs. water use and consumption is high among other energy production methods.3 million Americans suffer from chronic exposure to particle pollution. and the risk of premature death (ALA 2005). closed-loop cooling technologies. 5 Water is a critical resource for thermoelectric power plants. As a result. lung inflammation. Wind energy can also provide targeted energy production to serve critical local water system needs such as irrigation and municipal systems. 5. Based on this analysis.79 liters of ethanol produced (IATP 2006). For example. which faces declining generation. this evolution will actually lead to an overall increase in water consumption (DOE 2006). Baum and colleagues (2003) called attention to water quality and supply issues associated with fossil-fuel power plants in the interior West. 2005). emergency room visits for asthma and cardiovascular disease. but are still in the range 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 109 .5 million Americans are exposed to unhealthful short-term levels of particle pollution. and the risk of death.3 SAVING WATER The nation's growing communities place greater demands on water supplies and wastewater services. but are still in the range of 13. most ethanol plants have demonstrated a reduction in water use over the past years. and more electricity is needed to power the expanding water services infrastructure.2. or about 738 billion liters per day (Hutson et al. Future population growth in the United States will heighten competition for water resources. exposure to these particles can also increase the risk of hospitalization for asthma. Although regulation will require the majority of new generation plants to use recirculating. which use vast quantities. wind energy does not require the level of water conserve billions of liters of water in the resources consumed by many other kinds of power interior West. according the American Lung Association (ALA). strokes. Even when levels are low. which will lessen water withdrawals.25 to 22.
000 square kilometers (km2) would be required for land-based projects and more than 11.3 POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 5. but the land is used very differently. Wind development also requires large areas of land. The actual footprint for wind development projects.000 km2 would be needed for offshore projects. With the global and national infrastructure required to move fuel to generating stations—and the sites needed to store and treat the resulting waste—processing fossil fuel and nuclear energy is also a highly landintensive endeavor. Kentucky. all of which worsen the already fierce competition for diminished water resources (IPCC 2007). An issue brief.31 Adapted from "The Wind/Water Nexus" Wind Powering America (USDOE 2006) of 13. and Virginia. and destroys rapidly disappearing wildlife habitat. Although wind energy cannot solve this dilemma.000 hectares of high-quality mature deciduous forest are projected to be lost to coal mining in West Virginia. Traditional electricity generation requires mining for coal or uranium and drilling for natural gas. The 20% Wind Scenario (305 GW) estimates that in the United States about 50. Mountains in the western United States will have less snowpack. stated that coal-to liquid fuel production is a water intensive process. regardless of the type of fuel. Tennessee. 5 Global climate change is also expected to impact water supplies.51 6. an increased reliance on wind energy would alleviate some of the increased demand in the electricity sector. Estimated water savings from wind energy in the interior West (2003) Wind Energy (MW) Water Savings (billion gallons withdrawn) Water Savings (billion gallons consumed) 1. 5.25 to 22.79 liters of ethanol produced (IATP 2006).Table 5-1. In the next 10 years.000 10.15 1. some tough decisions will be needed on how this valuable resource should be allocated—especially for the West and Great Plains. Because of increasing demands for water and decreasing supplies. and reduced flows in the summer.7 liters of water consumed per 3. prepared by the World Resources Institute.89 3. all of which can destroy habitat for many species and cause irreversible ecological damage. more than 153.3. thereby reducing water withdrawals for the other energy sources. which ranges from 2% to 5% for the turbines and 110 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .73 4.000 7.200 3. according to the National Wildlife Federation (Price and Glick 2002). requiring about 10 gallons of water used for every gallon of coal-to-liquid product (Logan and Venezia 2007).88 4. more winter flooding.1 HABITAT DISTURBANCE AND LAND USE Fuel extraction and energy generation affect habitat and land use. Coal mining is estimated to disturb more than 400 thousand hectares of land every year for electricity generation in the United States.
000 hectares11) of disturbed land under the 20% Wind Scenario —an amount of dedicated land that is slightly smaller than Rhode Island. Indirect impacts can include trees being removed around turbines. Wind turbines are tall structures that require an otherwise undisturbed airspace around them. the Lesser Prairie Chickens. a four-year research program to study the effects of wind turbines on grassland birds (NWCC 2006). Estimates of temporary construction impacts range from 0. Strategic planning and siting to conserve and improve potentially high-value habitat can be constructive and beneficial for both wind energy and wildlife. ranching. and other infrastructure such as substations. some radar installations. that one species. with total disturbed area increasing each year. The extent of unknowns surrounding this issue led the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative's (NWCC) Wildlife Workgroup to form the Grassland/Shrub-Steppe Species Collaborative (GS3C).700. edges in a forest being detrimental to some species. Relative to other human causes of avian 11 One hectare = 2. Displacements of already declining local populations are likely.2 WILDLIFE RISKS Wildlife—and birds in particular–are threatened by numerous human activities. land used for wind generation projects has the potential to be compatible with some uses because only a few hectares are taken out of production. a grassland songbird study on Buffalo Ridge in Minnesota found species displacement of 180 meters (m) to 250 m from the wind turbines (Strickland and Johnson 2006). and the presence of turbines causing some species or individuals to avoid previously viable habitats. the GS3C provides a vehicle for public and private funding and for third-party peer-reviewed studies. The need for relatively large areas of undisturbed airspace can also directly or indirectly affect wildlife habitat. 5 In a presentation to the National Wind Collaborative Committee. however. airport approaches. For example. actively avoids electricity infrastructure such as transmission lines and frequent vehicle activity by as much as 0.000 hectares of land is permitted or covered and about 425.000 to 250.3 to 0. An important factor to note is that wind energy projects use the same land area each year.3.47 acres 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 111 . Peer-reviewed research has concluded. Issues regarding the conservation of sensitive habitats will need to be addressed over time. and no mining or drilling is needed to extract the fuel. Indirect habitat impacts on grassland species are a particular concern.4 hectare per turbine (Strickland and Johnson 2006). wildlife biologists described direct impacts include building wind turbines. estimates of permanent habitat spatial displacement range from 0. For scale comparisons. including effects from climate change. 5.000 to 2. Although wind energy may be able to coexist with land uses such as farming. Like the Bat and Wind Energy Cooperative (BWEC) discussed later. 2004). and totals about 1. wind energy development might not be compatible with land uses such as housing developments. service roads. coal and uranium must be mined from successive areas. In agricultural areas. and low-level military flight training routes. and forestry.4 km and fossil fuel power plants by more than 1 km (Robel et al.500 km2 (100.related infrastructure.0 hectare per turbine.2 to 1. available data for existing coal mining activities indicate that about 1. but the magnitude of these effects is uncertain because data specific to wind energy are not yet available.000 hectares of land are disturbed (DOI 2004). especially because extensive wind energy development could take place in grassy regions of the country.
Anthropogenic causes of bird mortality (per 10. it is estimated that for every 10. a number of the parties involved agreed to take steps 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and mountaintop mining. In January 2007. Some data relative to specific sites are offered in the list that follows: z 112 The first large-scale commercial wind resource area developed in the world was Altamont Pass in California's Bay Area in the 1980s. by oil spills. anthropogenic causes of bird fatalities range from 100 million to 1 billion annually. oil platforms built on bird migration routes along the Gulf Coast. a recent National Research Council (NRC 2007) study concluded that current wind energy generation is responsible for 0. turbines are not expected to be responsible for a significant percentage of avian mortality so long as proper precautions are taken in siting and design. wind energy's impacts are quite small.003% of human-caused avian mortality. Figure 5-2 puts the wind industry's impacts into context and illustrates that many human (and some feline) activities pose risks to birds. although individual sites can present more localized risks. Wind energy will likely continue to be responsible for a comparatively small fraction of total avian mortality risks. Further comparative analyses are needed to better understand the trade-offs with other energy sources. Even with 20% wind.mortality. less than one death is caused by wind turbines. In fact. specifically raptors. for example. acid rain. Avian mortality is also caused. Figure 5-2.000 avian deaths) 5 Source: Erickson et al. (2002) As Figure 5-2 shows. Although this facility has been problematic.000 birds killed by all human activity. The Altamont Pass development has seen high levels of bird kills. Currently. it remains an anomaly relative to other wind energy projects.
which is shown in Table 5-2.3 bird deaths per turbine per year and 3.to reduce raptor fatalities and upgrade the project area with newer technology. The frequency of bat deaths in 2003 at a newly constructed wind farm in West Virginia. OR 0. z An NWCC fact sheet (2004) reviewed the mortality figures from 12 comparable postconstruction monitoring studies and found that the fatality rate averaged 2.27 Buffalo Ridge. MN (Phase 2) 3. will be updated in 2008 to incorporate newly available data. though. 2005).03 Buffalo Ridge. and that additional bats probably died a few weeks before and after the six-week research period (Arnett et al. no site or cumulative impacts on bird or bat populations have been documented in the United States or Europe. OR 0.63 per turbine and 1 per megawatt at an agricultural site in Oregon to 10 per turbine and 15 per megawatt at a fragmented mountain forest site in Tennessee (NWCC 2004). WV 5 11.700 to 2.95 Nine Canyon. This is a particular worry with bats because they are relatively long-lived mammals with low reproduction rates.97 Buffalo Ridge. OR 2. But that does not mean that impacts are nonexistent. Wildlife collisions with wind turbines are a significant concern.76 Foote Creek Rim. Table 5-2. Fatality rates have ranged from a low of 0.95 Combine Hills.93 Top of Iowa 1. MN (Phase 1) 3. MN (Phase 3) 5. OR/WA 2. This information. led researchers to estimate that 1. Estimated avian fatalities per megawatt per year Wind Project and Location Total Fatalities Stateline. TN Mountaineer. particularly if they affect species populations.1 birds per megawatt per year of capacity in the United States (outside California).67 2. To date.92 Vansycle.50 Foote Creek Rim.69 Source: Data adapted from Strickland and Johnson (2006) z Before 2003. WY (Phase 2) 1. WA 2. According to a USGS biologist.99 Wisconsin 1. bat kills at wind farms studied were also generally low. bat mortality has also been higher than expected at a number of sites in the United States and Canada (Cryan 2006).900 bats had been killed. according to a peer 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 113 .44 Buffalo Mountain.56 Klondike. WY (Phase 1) 2.
various stakeholders are investigating how adaptive management principles might be applied to assess and manage wildlife and habitat risks at wind power sites. As a result. 114 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . "Social learning" is a centerpiece in this approach. The basic differences between two decision approaches—a linear approach commonly called "command and control" and the adaptive management approach—are quite apparent in Figure 5-3. Concerns about uncertain risks to birds and bats can lead permitting agencies and developers to conduct lengthy and costly studies that may or may not answer the wildlife impact questions raised. and forestry (Holling 1978). Although the term is used often. developers and operators of the wind site. could adjust the management of the site and the level of monitoring studies needed to the potential challenges that arise over the life of the project. "adaptive management" is not always well defined. An adaptive management approach contrasts with the more typical regulatory approaches. however. along with permitting agencies. wildlife and environmental concerns can cause site exclusion because of the following: 5 z Concerns about potential wildlife impacts z Costly study requirements z Future risk mitigation requirements z Conflicts with other resources. be costly for many projects and require care in assessing the appropriate levels of analysis. fisheries (Walters 1986). Valuable experience with this approach exists in such areas as watershed planning (Lee 1993. Management solutions are regarded more as experiments than as definitive solutions to the challenges involved. NRC 2004). focused research would be necessary if the United States is to increase wind development. Collaborative efforts such as BWEC and GS3C offer constructive models for this undertaking.3. Although many factors influence decisions to build wind projects. BWEC is currently conducting the necessary research to understand the risks to bats. Walters 1986. In the figure. 2005). The long term viability of the wind industry will be helped by acknowledging and addressing the challenges raised by these uncertain risks. which assume that sufficient knowledge exists at the outset to define environmental risks and effects. Here adaptive management refers to an evolutionary management approach that purposely seeks to adapt management and decision-making processes to evolving knowledge of the technology or environmental risks in question (Holling 1978. 5.reviewed study (Arnett et al. More research is necessary to understand more clearly the link between preconstruction surveys and postconstruction monitoring results. with management seeking to enhance its capability to learn from experience and an expanding body of knowledge. Lee 1993).3 MANAGING ENVIRONMENTAL RISK AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES Dealing with uncertainties associated with siting wind power facilities is a challenge for some institutions because it requires a management structure with high levels of social trust and credibility. Well-designed research programs can. Under these models. Addressing these uncertainties through additional.
and surprises are likely as experience unfolds. Risk analysis plays a critical role in this process. al. Guiding principles and applications for this approach are still evolving. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 115 . Accordingly. Linear decision strategy (command and control) and interactive model with adaptive management principles 5 Source: Morgan et.Figure 5-3. the assumptions address different types of situations—the risks are uncertain and unlikely to be resolved in the near future. where experience and knowledge are still growing and where documented effects are strongly site-specific. the risks can be assessed only partially at the outset. (2007) Model 1 assumes that sufficient research and assessment can be done before the technology or management system is deployed. This model emphasizes the importance of flexible. but adaptive management seems particularly well suited for situations of high uncertainties or conflict in the political process. allowing an appropriate management system and the needed regulatory requirements to be put in place at the outset. rapid response to new knowledge or events. this risk management approach might well be suited for a technology such as wind energy. In Model 2. with the assumption that major risks can be identified and assessed and appropriate mitigation systems instituted.
Reactions to wind turbines are www. A primary challenge in achieving 20% of U. electricity from wind is to maximize the overall benefits of this form of energy without disrupting or alienating specific communities. others see them as elegant and interesting. technical adjustments to the project layout can be made to accommodate specific concerns.S. however.g. When asked. 2002 of people living near a small project in the United Kingdom.4. open space.4. however. wind farm (RBA Research 2002). about 25% their concerns early on. or a developer might relocate wind turbines. but that opposition can strengthen when particular sites are proposed. Stakeholder concerns must be taken seriously and • Although polls show broad statewide support a long-term commitment to understanding for the Cape Wind offshore project in stakeholder interactions must be made. Involving affected remained opposed after the project was communities early is critical to identifying constructed. Of impacts of wind. are predominately local and can concern some individuals in the affected communities and landscapes.2 VISUAL IMPACTS opponents say they might support the project if it were part of a broader strategy to combat Wind turbines can be highly visible because of global climate change. Some people feel that turbines are intrusive. Sixty percent later supported the concerns and addressing them proactively. The impacts of wind projects. over time. Of those polled in a study conducted by Yale University in 2005. or even propose screening devices (such as trees) to minimize 116 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . population. Although this can minimize the number of people affected. and expansive vistas.5. It found that 74% of participants supported the wind farm—37% Communities must be consulted about the global strongly—and only 8% were opposed. less populated areas may also be prized for tranquility. More information on their height and locations (e. more than 87% want expanded wind energy development (Global Strategy Group 2005). ridgelines and this topic can be found at open plains). Some evidence indicates that. that • RBA Research conducted a study for the local support for a wind project increased once it British Wind Energy Association in April was installed and operating.4 PUBLIC PERCEPTION AND ENGAGEMENT Because the environmental benefits of wind energy are significant. some opponents have been very vocal. the visual impacts of wind energy projects may well be a factor in gauging site acceptability. Only a minority of the U. for example. Surveys commissioned in the United Kingdom and Spain have found. especially prospective communities that do not have experience with wind turbines. Discourse with communities about the expected impacts is important. Wind project developers can conduct visual simulations from specific vantage points and produce maps of theoretical visibility across an affected community (Pasqualetti 2005).mms. In either case. and this includes addressing those opposed to the project.S.S.gov/offshore/alternativeenergy subjective and varied. Massachusetts. opposition might decrease and support Selected Public Opinion Surveys might grow.. With this information. some 5. 5. public support for expanding wind energy development is widespread.1 5 PUBLIC ATTITUDES Wind energy development receives considerable general support among the U. population appears to oppose wind energy. reduce the tower height. The best areas for siting wind turbines tend to be those with lower population densities.
and wind turbines are no exception. The guidelines recommend red lights. for example. reducing the number of lights needed overall. of course.4. and gearbox. Advances in engineering and insulation ensure that modern turbines are relatively quiet. including in nearby buildings or homes. The primary sound is aerodynamic noise from the blades moving through the air—the "whoosh-whoosh" sound heard as the blades pass the tower. they are located on a windy ridge 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 117 . Decibel levels of various situations Source: BWEA (2007) When proposing a wind energy project. Less commonly heard in modern turbines are the mechanical sounds from the generator. wind developers can conduct studies to predict sound levels in various places. which are less annoying than white lights to people nearby. The guidance recommends that wind energy projects should be lit at night.3 5 SOUND All machinery with moving parts makes some sound. yaw drive. the sound from a turbine (when standing closer than 350 m) is 35 to 45 decibels (dB. Figure 5-4.visual impact. but now the lights can be up to 0. In February 2007. affect the economic feasibility of a proposed project. see Figure 5-4). so they should be weighed carefully in siting and development decisions. Turbines might be slightly louder if. When the wind picks up and the wind turbines begin to operate. This sound is equivalent to a kitchen refrigerator running.8 km apart and be placed only around the project perimeter. All of these steps can. No daytime lighting is necessary if the turbines and blades are painted white or off-white. such as the turbines of the 1980s. proposed wind projects must be reviewed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). 5. which were considerably louder. Because almost all commercial-scale wind turbines rise more than 60 m above the ground. Concerns about sound are primarily associated with older technology. including new uniform recommendations for lighting wind energy projects. the FAA updated an advisory circular (FAA 2007) dealing with obstruction lighting and marking. The new FAA suggestions are designed to allow pilots flying too low to be warned of obstructions and minimize intrusion to neighbors.
measured the distance to the nearest turbine. the Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP) conducted a study of 24. 5. In April 2006 a study from Bard College focused on a 20-turbine wind project in Madison County. both studies found little evidence to support the claim that home values are negatively affected by the presence of wind power generation facilities.4 LAND VALUE Residents can become concerned about possible declines in local property values when wind energy projects are proposed in their communities. and federal levels make siting decisions. In general. Though neither is definitive and additional work in this area is needed. Researchers visited each home. 118 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Projects are subject to the input of a diverse set of decision makers and different permitting regulations apply in different parts of the country. such as nuclear plants. they may look to other communities with existing wind facilities. wind projects. either through fixed payments or as a small share of the revenue. The primary asset for many families is their home. primary decisions rest with the local jurisdiction. even though extensive studies have already been conducted on other energy facilities. Because home values are a composite of many factors. These authorities have different responsibilities relative to a project. Wind projects also tend to be located in areas of low residential density. In some places. New York. To ascertain what effects they are likely to experience. studies (see sidebar) have addressed these issues.000 home sales surrounding 11 U.000 (US$2006) per turbine per year. No clear evidence of adverse effects on property values was found.S. Individuals with turbines on their properties might actually see an increase in their property values because of the lease payments paid by the wind project owner. This master's thesis also concluded that there was no evidence that the facility affected home values in a measurable way. 5. so property values are a serious concern. two U. 5 Wind Energy and Home Values In 2003. To date. and ascertained to what degree the home could see the wind facility. state. Studies of the effects of wind projects on local property values should be done with great care. and Kostiuk 2003). In some communities. but there can be inconsistencies among them and even within the same agency.5 SITING/REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Currently. Authorities at local. wind energy projects are governed by a complex set of laws. standard setbacks from residences and other buildings appear to reasonably ensure that sound levels from a wind project will be low and nonintrusive. Fredric. It compared the average selling price over time of homes near the wind project with a nearby control area that was at least 8 km from the project.S. even when concentrating on homes that sold near to the facility or those with a prominent view of the turbines (Hoen 2006). isolating the effects of proximity to a wind project is important (though only a part of the full picture).4. Changes can usually be made to a project if the sound levels at a particular location are deemed too high. home values near the facilities rose faster than properties in the control group (Sterzinger. Lease payments tend to be $2.or if houses are located downwind in a sheltered valley.000 to $5. which further compounds the difficulties of controlling the impact on property value.
conducted a countywide environmental impact review to enable development of the Tehachapi Wind Resource Area. houses. Responsibilities differ among local bodies. State guidelines can include requirements such as maintaining certain sound levels or conducting studies. rural road maintenance. local authorities may feel ill equipped to weigh the highly technical information presented by a wind project developer. and because they are more accountable to the public.5. Increased uniformity in regulatory requirements across regions would greatly facilitate the increased deployment of wind projects necessary to reach the 20% Wind Scenario. A wide diversity of requirements means that projects across the country must adhere to different standards. the County Board created a permitted use ordinance that lays out standard conditions for wind projects. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 119 . which means that they have placed the authority to review energy facilities with the state utility commission (i.although federal and state requirements may still apply. but local commissions are often responsible for property assessments.5.1 LOCAL Locally elected officials make some siting decisions at the county level. 5. zoning. A dramatic increase in development is likely to make this situation even more complex for developers and decision makers alike.2 STATE AND FEDERAL States can control siting decisions either through specific decision-making bodies or by virtue of rules set for projects on state-controlled land. 5 In some cases. however. Most wind energy projects go through the local conditional use permit process and must spell out the conditions under which a project will operate. a state agency—such as a wildlife agency—might establish guidelines for siting wind projects. a public service commission). Illinois. The charge of these state commissions or boards often includes supplying reliable electric service at reasonable prices.e. Differing levels of public involvement also occur in these processes. a project permit might limit the sound level or require a setback distance from roads. And the local authorities in Kern County. A few states have an energy siting board. Decision makers in Klickitat County. In Pike County. Washington. California. and preserving the local quality of life. they tend to be generally more familiar with this sector. They can be easily influenced by proponents or opponents armed with incomplete or inaccurate information. 5. designated specific areas to encourage and guide wind energy development. The governor or legislature usually appoints representatives. and water quality (NACO 2003). and different information is often required before permits are issued. or property lines. economic development. Concerned individuals or project opponents have legal recourse to raise objections by formally challenging a commission decision.. enhancing tax revenue. Counties can also create ordinances to permit wind energy facilities. decision makers are more comfortable rendering considered permit decisions. In communities where wind development has a history. which is especially attractive in states where local authority is highly prized. For example. Local commissions typically are concerned with protecting the environment. This approach allows the community to maintain control of local land use decisions. In addition.
Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issues permits for any development that will affect wetlands. Projects must also comply with the Endangered Species Act if any threatened or endangered species will be adversely affected.S. New regulations are expected in 2008. depending on the circumstances. The federal agencies that follow have mandates that may be related to wind energy: z 5 z z z z z 120 The FAA conducts aeronautical studies on all structures higher than 60 m above ground level for potential conflicts with navigable airspace and military radar. From 2004 to 2006. The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) manages 105 million hectares of public land. The FAA completed nearly half of these turbine proposals in 2006 (Swancy 2006). however. wind developers can rely on the previous programmatic NEPA document and provide a development plan without having to do a full EIS at each site. The USFWS also enforces the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act. MMS is developing the rules and issued a programmatic environmental impact statement for all alternative energy development on the OCS. which prohibits the killing or harming of almost all migratory birds. which can save valuable resources and time (BLM). Roads. Developers are required to submit an application for each individual turbine.000 wind turbine proposals and issued only eight determinations of hazard (Swancy 2006). such as allowing construction of a large energy project on federal lands (NEPA 1969). Some migratory birds. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USFS) manages 78 million hectares of public land in national forests and 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . In 2005.The federal government participates in regulating wind energy projects through several different agencies. The U. An agency can trigger the provisions of NEPA by undertaking a major federal action. such as when developers propose a project on federally managed land. The U.S. and ensures proper marking and lighting. but flagrant violations without mitigation could be subject to prosecution (USFWS). sets standard requirements for projects. Unless there is a federal involvement. project infrastructure. the FAA approved almost 18. mostly in the western United States. no wind energy companies have faced action under either law.S. This statement includes best management practices for wind energy projects. which gives additional protection to eagles. the BLM finalized a programmatic environmental impact statement for wind energy development on BLM lands in the West. and foundations at some wind project sites have the potential to affect wetlands. can be taken under a permit or license. The U. As an alternative. Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) can pursue prosecution for violations of the Migratory Bird Treaty Act. and allows for sitespecific studies. To date. The Minerals Management Service (MMS) oversees permitting for offshore ocean-based wind energy projects proposed for the outer continental shelf (OCS). wind energy projects are not usually subject to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The USFWS exercises prosecutorial discretion under these statutes.
Several research collaboratives have been formed (see sidebar entitled Examples of Existing Wind Energy Research Collaboratives) to ensure that the interests of various stakeholders are represented. Wind energy companies planning a project near an Air Force base. and decides how to plan for and mitigate those impacts (DOE 2007). it is not necessarily feasible or appropriate for one company or one project to foot the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 121 . and that research results are widely disseminated. z z The U. 5. BWEC is exploring the effectiveness of an acoustic deterrent device to warn bats away from the spinning blades of wind turbines. relevant NGOs. but broader research is urgently needed on a few of the most significant questions.grasslands (USDA). although DOD does participate in the FAA studies.6 ADDRESSING ENVIRONMENTAL AND SITING CHALLENGES 5 In order to install more than 10 GW of wind capacity per year by 2014. however. the United States will need to have a consistent way to review and approve projects. Examples below reflect what mature energy industries are doing to address concerns about wildlife and energy facility siting issues. This situation is not surprising for a relatively new energy technology.S. Although the risk to bats might be greater at some sites than at others. and the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) have identified gaps in the knowledge base about wind energy and its risks. and government agencies currently participate in ongoing collaboratives on wind energy. Collaboratives can help to avoid relying on industry-driven research. 5. Various combinations of technical experts and informed representatives from industry. which critics often perceive as biased. The approaches described outline steps that could be adopted for a 20% Wind Scenario. that research questions are relevant. The U. Department of Defense (DOD) has no formal review process for wind energy projects. Department of Energy (DOE) has taken the lead in creating an interagency project siting team. Projects sited on any Forest Service lands are subject to NEPA. and potentially to siting guidelines that the Forest Service is currently developing. generally work with base leadership to address and avoid conflicts. The team reviews how wind sites affect government assets such as radar installations.S. The knowledge gaps are framed in questions such as z How can large deployments of wind energy generation contribute to national climate change goals and significantly reduce GHG emissions? z Can bats be deterred from turbines? z How high do night-migrating songbirds fly over ridgelines? Sometimes developers address these questions at specific sites.1 EXPAND PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS States. For example. The wind energy industry—in partnership with the government and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs)—will need to address environmental and siting issues. collaboratives.6.
If the wind energy sector is to increase installations to more than 16 GW of capacity each year after 2018. a collaborative research body could determine what baseline wildlife and habitat studies are needed. or other activities might be appropriate for the area. which is the first-ever comprehensive guide to metrics and methods for determining and monitoring potential impacts on birds at existing and proposed wind energy sites. and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to form BWEC. In this case. that wind energy has on grassland and shrub steppe avian species. National Wind Coordinating Collaborative Wildlife Workgroup The NWCC is a forum for defining. Supported by funds from DOE.Examples of Existing Wind Energy Research Collaboratives Bats and Wind Energy Cooperative (BWEC) After learning in 2003 that thousands of bats had been killed at a West Virginia site. and determine what mitigation. might decide to open to development because new transmission lines are planned. As the more focused groups come together in a region. organize and fund researchers to begin the work. such as development of a "mitigation toolbox. A region. The group released a report. could also identify priority conservation areas and work toward enhancing key habitat areas. Established in 2005 as the Grassland/Shrub Steppe Species Subgroup. A public–private partnership is often a more effective way to undertake and fund the research needed. or a larger institute. This organization created a research program to explore ways to reduce fatalities. the WWG has facilitated six national research meetings. the conversation might shift from where development is inappropriate to where it is most promising. As development levels ramp up. habitat conservation. an overarching research consortium that would combine the work of these collaboratives would likely provide a benefit. they could examine some of the habitat and biological sensitivity issues to understand which areas are most appropriate for development. 122 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . the wind energy industry immediately collaborated with Bat Conservation International. and might also lead to more credible results. for example. academic institutions. Such a program could focus on addressing potential risks and ensuring that the most critical uncertainties are research priorities. NGOs. Its work currently centers on two areas: (1) understanding and quantifying what makes a site more risky for bats and (2) field-testing deterrent devices to warn bats away from wind turbine blades. discussing. the USFWS. With the public– private nature of the consortium. Additionally. Studying Wind Energy/Bird Interactions: A Guidance Document." 5 Grassland/Shrub-Steppe Species Collaborative The GS3C is a voluntary cooperative to identify the impacts. It is subdivided into a number of groups focused on specific tasks. with a focus on public policy questions. and the wind industry. the Wildlife Workgroup (WWG) serves as an advisory group for national research on wind–avian issues. the GS3C includes representatives from state and federal agencies. and addressing wind–avian interaction issues. These groups. large research consortia could be created to take part in sustainable growth planning. if any. entire bill for this research.
In the long term. communities might protect property values. states also completed wildlife action plans that identify high-priority actions needed to preserve and enhance their wildlife resources.2 EXPAND OUTREACH AND EDUCATION Public acceptance of wind projects may increase if the local community directly shares in the benefits from a new wind energy development. Other collaborative efforts to develop guidelines are moving forward through wildlife or energy agencies.6. In the United States. Wind energy developers can engage residents in a potential host community to explain possible impacts. or are in the process of developing.5. and operations and maintenance. 5. These groups might develop a smaller project in conjunction with a commercial development to leverage the economies of scale available for turbine purchases. 5 Property tax payments: Wind projects are multimillion-dollar facilities that can make a significant contribution to a community's tax base. A town or municipality sometimes purchases a turbine to generate power and lower public electricity bills. In Europe. Projects are usually on leased private property. examples of direct community impacts include: z z z Community wind: Groups of individuals join together to develop and own a project. Many such options exist and any combination might be part of a siting strategy. and learn about community concerns. Development of siting guidelines gives developers and agency officials a clear pathway to what may be required in certain jurisdictions. although time and cost considerations are involved. Numerous states and federal agencies have developed. In 2006. project owners often contribute to a local community fund in lieu of taxes. it may be necessary to create sustainable growth planning effort as new areas of development open.6. siting guidelines for wind power developments. tax law allows individuals to invest directly in wind projects. for example. the rewards are significant. Some states have created siting guidelines in conjunction with implementation of their state renewable portfolio standards (RPS). construction. Desired facilities are also sometimes collocated in the community as a form of incentive.3 COORDINATE LAND-USE PLANNING Successfully addressing numerous inconsistencies in permitting and regulation will require government and industry stakeholders to review the policies and procedures currently being implemented across multiple jurisdictions. This early involvement gives citizens an opportunity to ask questions and have their concerns addressed. Payment in lieu of taxes: In places where property taxes are not required. Although this can be risky because of the significant complexity and capital required to successfully build a wind project. with the project owner paying any related property taxes. A number of NGOs already have ecoregional plans that may yield a solid baseline of biological data. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 123 . share information about the project. In other energy facility siting programs. Those individuals might well view their turbines as a source of income and feel more positive about the siting of turbines nearby.
Denmark intends to do further research. Direct comparisons and lessons learned would be instructive but need to be applied with appropriate Offshore Wind Plant Siting and cautions about different public policies. 124 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and animal physiology (Gerdes et al. Seabed Rights in the United States Various U. operations.5. More than 280 research studies and assessments are examining environmental and human effects from installed offshore wind installations (SenterNovem 2005). Preliminary environmental analyses relating to offshore installations are restricted to NEPA-related requirements for specific projects in federal waters. forthcoming). A growing awareness of the large potential for electricity contributions from offshore wind energy has led to numerous proposals for siting offshore wind plants in European seas. however. and decommissioning of turbines. offshore siting was notably more complex than land-based siting because of unclear and overlapping legal and jurisdictional authorities. Others have addressed the planning.7 PROSPECTS FOR OFFSHORE WIND ENERGY PROJECTS IN THE UNITED STATES AND INSIGHTS FROM EUROPE Europe's experience with offshore wind energy projects is instructive for how the United States might address environmental and siting challenges. installation. marine ecology. 26 projects are installed in the North and the Baltic Seas in eight nations with a combined capacity of more than 900 MW. and commitments to reduce GHGs.S. which is characteristic of the early stages of any energy technology. 5 Before the passage of the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005. to assess the effects over time of multiple projects within the same region. Congress delegated authority to grant easements. The most recent environmental monitoring program (spanning more than five years) from this study has concluded that none of the potential ecological risks appear to have long-term or large-scale impacts (DEA 2006). European developments are supported by ambitious national goals for wind deployment. leases. With EPAct 2005. By contrast. Denmark has conducted the most extensive before-after control-impact study in the world. To date. Uncertainty about the extent of potential impacts of offshore wind projects—in addition to the lack of well-designed siting strategies— and the lack of long-term scientific information to fully evaluate the technology can contribute to delays in deployment (Musial and Ram. maintenance. Studies have also been conducted on birds. Currently. construction. Until recently. A major scientific effort is in progress to support these projects. 2005). and proposals for developing them are still limited. government agencies are responsible for evaluating and approving the siting. (Table 5-3 lists proposed projects and the documentation relating to the permitting and NEPA process. the United States does not yet have any commercial-scale offshore wind power sites.) The state of knowledge and assessment of risks surrounding offshore wind energy are still emerging. or rights-of-way in coastal waters to the MMS under the DOI. financial instruments and subsidies. the USACE assumed permitting authority over proposed offshore wind energy developments. and operation of wind power plants in the ocean.
"Announced" refers to proposals at the feasibility study and data collection stage. MA 90–120 N/A (Massachuset ts state waters) Applied for state approval with Massachusetts Environmental Affairs. To date. Bluewater Wind LLC Delaware 200 TBD Won competition May 22. Concluded that conditions are favorable but current cost and regulatory situation precludes development. Announced Patriot Renewables LLC Buzzards Bay. with Delmarva Power & Light Project Hull Municipal Boston Harbor 4 N/A (Massachuset ts state waters) Collecting data. Precautionary principles apply during the adoption of facility siting and design. draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) in progress by MMS.T. Meteorological tower installed to begin collecting data in 2007. as well as risk management principles. MMS issued a notice of intent (NOI) to prepare a new EIS in May 2006. project cancelled in October 2007. well-planned siting strategies are critical to future offshore wind 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 125 5 . with no commercial plans as yet and no permit applications completed.Table 5-3. a In this table. Galveston. Received funding from Massachusetts Technology Collaborative to support permitting and siting analyses. Massachusetts issued a final environmental impact report (FEIR). a "Project" is a planned commercial development or demonstration where complete state or federal applications have been submitted to appropriate permitting agencies. 40 July 2005 Joint application submitted to USACE April 2005. such as air emissions and the larger global risks of climate change.) Project Announced Nantucket Sound 130 3–5 No current plans Two-year collaborative study with Georgia Tech. GA Project Cape Wind Associates Project LIPA & Florida Power and Light Long Island Sound Project Wind Energy Systems Technologies (W. 2007. USACE issued a draft environmental impact statement (EIS) in November 2004. May 2006. Status of offshore wind energy applications in state and federal waters Type of Initiativea Developer Project Location Number of Turbines Proposed Federal Application Filed Status as of June 2007 November 2001 Received permit approval for the met tower in 2002. TX 50–60 N/A (Texas state waters) Signed lease with Texas General Land Office in 2005. members of the European wind industry and other stakeholders have largely mitigated risks related to wind energy or decided that the local siting risks are less of a concern than other factors. Because risks are highly sitespecific. Southern Company Off the coast of Savannah.S. MMS issued an NOI to prepare an EIS in June 2006. Conducting feasibility studies.E.
enlarged community involvement. Figure 5-5. these actions would need to occur within the next decade. cost-effective opportunities for risk mitigation. in time to anticipate and plan for siting strategies and potential environmental effects. More details are given in the subsections that follow. benefits and risks could be considered in context with other energy options. Successful strategies in Europe have recognized the need to engage local populations in siting decisions and development planning. Given the significant ramp-up of wind installations by 2018 in the 20% Wind Scenario. and more effective planning and permitting regimes can also be considered. If the United States supports a major increase of offshore wind deployments over the next two decades. As the United States establishes a regulatory process and siting strategies for offshore wind projects. 5 5.8 FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS To scale up wind energy development responsibly. strategic siting approaches. Figure 5-5 offers a representation of activities that may be needed over the near and longer terms. z Fish and benthic communities z Undersea sound and marine mammals z Electromagnetic fields and fish behaviors z Human intrusion on seascape environments z Competing commercial and recreational uses of the ocean z Other socioeconomic effects. including tourism and property values. much can be learned from Europe's decades of experience with offshore wind. Some of the activities would begin now and continue through 2030.developments. Remaining uncertainties associated with overall risks. This allows local concerns to be addressed and builds community support for wind facilities. Actions to support 20% wind energy by 2030 126 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . it will need to develop an ambitious and well-managed environmental research and siting program and lay the groundwork for collaborative approaches that engage the public and other interested stakeholders.
and public responses will vary among potential sites. although several state agencies—such as the California Energy Commission—are developing these priorities. Along with these risk research programs.and Mid-Term Actions Compare life-cycle effects of energy generation options: The knowledge base for comparing wind energy with other energy options—according to their climate change implications—is still uneven and incomplete. Engage national leaders: Evolving national and state policies and corporate programs are beginning to minimize human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases. 5 Define risks: A systematic risk research program that addresses the full range of human. Develop siting strategies: The risks associated with wind energy deployment are heavily site-specific. The study. which takes a collaborative approach and involves interested parties. electricity grid. Such knowledge could prove helpful to wind energy developers. but also to avoid potential ecological risks and minimize community conflict. host community officials. affected communities.S. National leadership could help to facilitate rapid progress towards 20% wind energy. Although substantial national experience exists with siting different types of energy facilities. ecological. Address public concerns: Building public support is essential if wind energy is to supply 20% of the nation's electricity by 2030. Such a study would establish a systematic knowledge base to inform research priorities and decision makers. has not begun. A comprehensive survey of risk issues that might arise at different sites has yet to be designed and undertaken. Wind energy is an important part of the portfolio of energy technologies that can contribute to this goal.Near. such as bird mortality in California and bat mortality in West Virginia. and local regulators in evaluating wind energy developments. EPAct 2005 included authorization language for an NAS study of the comparative risk and benefits of current and prospective electricity supply options. and national. that experience has not yet been incorporated into wind siting strategies. the associated cost and time implications must be demarcated. Many positive impacts are projected from wind energy comprising a larger share of the U. Siting strategies are needed to identify sites that are highly favored for wind energy developments. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 127 . but these data must be quantified and made publicly available. and subject matter experts would be informative and should be placed within the context of other energy risks. and various other stakeholders. Additional research on wildlife and habitat fragmentation. however. In fact. state. The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) is currently developing a siting handbook. The roots of public perceptions of and concerns about wind energy are not well understood. Research wildlife and habitat effects: The current research program on wind energy is largely driven by the problems that have arisen at specific sites. electric utilities. which may be valuable as a first step in addressing this need. and socioeconomic effects from wind project siting is needed. Further work could continue to enhance collaborative siting processes that engage states. NGOs.
htm. Bureau of Land Management. MA: The Land and Water Fund of the Rockies and Clean Air Task Force. which have been applied to the development of numerous other technologies. Nielsen. Mercury and Fish Consumption: Medical and Public Health Issues. "AMA Adopts New Policies on Mercury Pollution.uk/pdf/noise.pdf. Kerns. D. http://lungaction.pdf. Decker.nationalwind. http://www. and in other parts of the world. November 14.dk/graphics/Publikationer/Havvindmoeller/danish_offshore_ wind.org/reports/sota05exec_summ. 2004. E.org/newsroom/pdf/Wind_Energy_Basics." Presented at the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative (NWCC) Wildlife Research Meeting VI. 2005..batcon. Berry.britishwindenergy. http://www. DC: AWEA. AWEA (American Wind Energy Association). http://www. J.pdf.pdf. and J. and C. San Antonio.html.pdf. Hormone Compounds and Smoke-Free Meetings. 2003." U.html. Miller. Baum. http://www.org/wind/BWEC2004Reportsummary. http://www.html. Erickson.Long-Term Actions Apply adaptive management principles: As with other technologies. www.ama-assn. M. and Behavioral Interactions with Wind Turbines. A-04. "BLM Facts. 2005.ens. London: BWEA. 5. Bat and Wind Energy Cooperative. Washington. Adaptive management concepts and approaches. ISBN: 87-7844-625-2.. Sweden: DONG Energy. DEA (Danish Energy Authority). State of the Air 2005. The Last Straw: Water Use by Power Plants in the Arid West. 128 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . wind energy will continue to pose new uncertainties as existing ones are reduced.pdf.catf. November 13.org/events/wildlife/2006 3/presentations/bats/cryan. J. http://www. J.org/ama/pub/category/ 15842. Chaisson. CO and Boston. 5 AMA.awea. W. Wind Energy Basics. in Europe. http://www. Horn. should also be considered for incorporation into wind energy development. Putnam. Boulder. New York: ALA. AMA (American Medical Association) Council on Scientific Affairs. Patterns of Fatality. http://www.co. Relationships between Bats and Wind Turbines in Pennsylvania and West Virginia: An Assessment of Fatality Search Protocols. Cryan. 2007.blm.S. "Overview of What We Know About the Bat/Wind Interaction as of November of 2004. Danish Offshore Wind – Key Environmental Issues. Report No. 2007. IL: AMA.9 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED FURTHER READING ALA (American Lung Association). 2006.us/publications/reports/The_Last_Straw.ama-assn. Chicago. The knowledge base is certain to evolve as new sites are developed and the scale of wind development expands in the United States. B.org/ama/pub/category/17086.gov/nhp/facts/index. 2006. BWEA (British Wind Energy Association). E. TX." American Medical Association. 2006. Stockholm. BLM. Arnett. Noise from Wind Turbines: The Facts. P.
and J. 2006.S.pdf Flavin. "Summary of Anthropogenic Causes of Bird Mortality.org/issues/2006/09/ american_energy.gov/new. Wind Power: Impacts on Wildlife and Government Responsibilities for Regulating Development and Protecting Wildlife. http://www. DOE. CA. Washington.html/AmericanEnergy. www. DC: EPA. Wind & Hydropower Technologies Program. State and Indian Regulatory Program Permitting: 2004. New Haven. DC: Department of Energy.gov/windandhydro/windpoweringamerica/ pdfs/wpa/wpa_factsheet_water. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).S. 2007. Report No. Survey on American Attitudes on the Environment – Key Findings.gov/new. DOE/GO 102006-2218. Jansen. FAA. "Federal Interagency Wind Siting Collaboration. Department of Transportation. http://www1. http://www. C. 2006. Rehfeldt.pdf.doc Government Accountability Office.gov/progpermit04.greenpeace.americanprogress. 2005.eere.loe. Department of the Interior).htm EIA. and S. Report No. DC: DOI Office of Surface Mining. DOE/EIA-0573. http://www. Wind Power: Impacts on Wildlife and Government Responsibilities for Regulating Development and Protecting Wildlife. DOI (U. 5 EPA (U. http://www. Environmental Impact Assessment & Political Framework. Federal Aviation Administration). DC: Worldwatch Institute Center for American Progress.org/images/070316/yalepole. Advisory Circular.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/index. GAO-05-906.eia. 2004. http://www.gao.. http://www.energy. 2005. Washington.htm.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/offshore wind-implementing-a. 2007. Washington. W. American Energy: The Renewable Path to Energy Security. 2007. Johnson.DOE (U.S. GAO (Government Accountability Office). Amsterdam: Greenpeace International. https://oeaaa. A. K.S. Department of Energy).com/FAQs/pdf/Bird%20Strike%20Study. Golden.gov/oeaaa/external/content/AC70_7460_1K. Washington. Sawin. CT: Yale University School of Forestry & Environmental Studies.items/d05906.http://www. DC: GAO. Offshore Wind: Implementing a New Powerhouse for Europe. Mercury: Health Effects. (U. Washington. GAO-05-906.html.energy. AC 70/7460-1K.eere. Grid Connection. Obstruction Marking and Lighting. Erickson. and D. Environmental Protection Agency). G. G.gov/windandhydro/federalwindsiting/about_collab oration. 2006. Report No. March 20–24." DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2005. 2002.faa.pdf. Washington.pdf Global Strategy Group. www. The Wind/Water Nexus. DC: Government Accountability Office.gov/mercury/effects.pdf 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 129 .items/d05906..pdf Gerdes. Asilomar Conference Grounds.html.doe..epa.dialight. 2005. http://www." Presented at Third International Partners in Flight Conference. Young.osmre. 2005. DC.pdf. Teske.gao. Washington.
org/ NEPA 1969. W." PLoS Biology. New York: John Wiley & Sons. as amended. October 2006. Unpublished M. DC: NAP.N. http://www. April 2007. Maupin. http://www. Geological Survey. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). thesis.gov/usgcrp/links/ipcc. http://www. 42 U. Lee. DC: Island Press. Brussels. 1978. S. 130 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . http://books. D.pdf.S. 2006. and B. 1268. 2007. DC: The National Academies Press (NAP). The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. Wilcove.htm NESCAUM (Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management). NACO (National Association of Counties). K.usgs. Report presented at 8th session of Working Group II of the IPCC. Reston. Large Scale Offshore Wind Deployments: Barriers and Opportunities.S. http://www. NRC (National Research Council). 2003. J. Hutson.pubmedcentral. 2007. Communicating. Climate Change 2007: Impacts. W.S.pdf.fcgi?artid=1885834&blobtype=pdf. 1993. Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000. NREL. Belgium.org/pdfs/misc/effects_windmill_vis_on_prop_values_hoe n2006. Annandale on Hudson. 5(6): 1211–1219. Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP). and M.. 2005. Washington. 2003. A Brief Overview of County Government. B. http://ceq.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/index.gov/ picrender. et al.org/airtopics/mercury/rpt031104mercury . 2004. New York. Impacts of Windmill Visibility on Property Values in Madison County. Draft.aceny. Washington. Advance Copy... Kenny. Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin: Causes of Decline and Strategies for Recovery.S. Bard Center for Environmental Policy. VA: U. Adaptation and Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] Fourth Assessment Report. Mercury Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants: The Case for Regulatory Action.Hoen. Musial. 4321–4347. MA: NESCAUM.doe.C. NY: Bard College. "Projected Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Change on the Global Diversity of Birds.gov/nepa/regs/nepa/nepaeqia.php?isbn=0309090970. Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management. http://pubs.nap. Ram. Water Use by Ethanol Plants: Potential Challenges. Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing. Circular No. and A.usgcrp. Lumia. 2007.org/library. C.http://bronze.html. N.edu/openbook. Morgan. and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Linsey.naco.nescaum.agobservatory. Boston. G. DC: NACO. K. Compass and Gyroscope: Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment. Holling. Washington.htm 5 IATP 2006.cfm?refid=89449 Jetz.S.eh. http://www. D. Dobson. Washington. 2007.nih. Barber.
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A key catalyst for wind's further development was California's investment tax credit and supportive state policies that jump started the bulk power wind industry in the early 1980s. The oil price shocks of the 1970s stimulated new interest in renewable energy and led to the establishment of the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978. Wind power is a viable option for meeting a substantial portion of this growing demand for electricity. federal production tax credits (PTCs). Department of Energy (DOE) projects U. wind power industry has experienced two major transformations in its history. In 1940. however.S. and smaller scale community-based projects are playing an increasing role in some regions.S. periodic expiration and subsequent extensions of the federal PTC have resulted in intervals of no growth followed by explosive growth. however. and their potential impacts on U. In addition.S. state renewable energy standards. public interest in renewable energy. Taking into account projected plant retirements and the implementation of energy efficiency and demand reduction programs. Currently. electricity demand to increase by 39% from 2005 to 2030 (EIA 2007). Wind Power Markets Wind power suppliers and consumers span a broad range.S. the eastern and Gulf Coast states are considering offshore proposals. Several firms 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 133 .1 6 U. as electrification connected rural U.S. During the past seven years. meeting this increased demand could require new electricity generation to increase by more than 50% over that period. electricity markets. more than 100. PURPA provided the foundation for the emergence of a second wind energy market in a few states in the 1980s.Chapter 6. Recent growth of the wind power market in the United States has been driven by a dramatic reduction in the cost of wind energy. and volatile natural gas prices. supply and demand markets would need to expand to deliver wind energy to end-use customers throughout the United States. The U. 6. wind power serves almost all large-scale utility markets. wind power expansion. Their use declined.000 wind turbines—many of them Jacobs Windmasters—were in operation across the Midwest. major wind power supply chain segments. This chapter presents a brief overview of U.S. as shown in Figure 6-1. Historically. If 20% wind energy by 2030 were to be reached. regions to electricity grids in the 1940s and 1950s. the total number of wind installations worldwide has grown at an average annual rate of 27%. By requiring utility companies to buy electricity from independent power producers (including wind companies). producing electricity for isolated farms and ranches. MARKET EVOLUTION BACKGROUND The U. The addition of federal tax credits at that time also contributed to industry expansion. market drivers.S.
As a result of these regulatory differences. Public and private research and technological innovation have rapidly improved wind resource assessment and siting. 134 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . wind turbines are highly reliable and operate whenever the wind resource is sufficient to generate electricity. wind energy market is robust and expanding at unexpected rates. others by the customers they serve.S.2 U. Some are owned by shareholders. Although the wind resource is variable. This most recent expansion is a technical revolution that is influencing electricity markets in dozens of countries around the globe. Turbine sizes have increased steadily. wind project developers must accommodate these local and regional market features. and by 1990 more than 6. leading to improvements in wind generation economics. U. manufacturers routinely guarantee the availability of their turbines at 97% or higher. The significantly broader and larger wind electric supply that we are witnessing today originated in the late 1990s. These utilities and commissions work within a regulatory framework based on federal and state legislation and jurisdiction-specific regulations that vary throughout the country. wind energy capacity growth (shown in megawatts [MW]) slowed during years when the PTC expired 6 pioneered modern wind turbine technology during this period. State public utility commissions and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) oversee these utilities and specific electricity markets.S. wind turbine aerodynamics and component design.Figure 6-1. Wind plant reliability has also improved—today.S. The current U. To bring wind energy to customers nationwide. the roles of utilities and commissions also differ. and power electronics.000 utilities across the country. creating a variety of market structures at the local and regional levels. 6.000 turbines were operating in the state. ELECTRICITY MARKET Electricity in the United States is supplied mainly by more than 3.
Approximately 200 investor-owned utilities (IOUs), 70 large municipal and federal
or state systems, and 50 rural generation and transmission cooperatives supply
power for 3,000 local distribution companies across the country. The largest of these
utilities typically own power plants and generate much of the power they supply.
They purchase the rest of the electricity needed to serve their customers from other
utilities or from nonutility generators through power purchase agreements (PPAs).
Utilities serve a variety of customers with differing needs and priorities, both retail
and wholesale. Retail customers are divided into three categories: residential,
commercial, and industrial. Residential customers use energy in a single dwelling
for personal service. Commercial customers often have multiple dwellings, offices,
or business enterprises located in a multifunction building. Industrial customers are
typically large manufacturing or assembly plants that have hundreds of workers and
multiple electricity applications. Special forms of commercial and industrial
customers include the federal, state, and local public sectors.
Retail electricity service to end-use customers is regulated by state commissions in
many states and jurisdictions. Some states have implemented restructuring or
deregulation of their electricity markets, resulting in increased competition among
electricity providers and retailers. In states where competitive entities are vying to
supply electric generation and to serve retail customers, wind developers have the
opportunity to build wind projects and deliver wind energy. In states that have not
restructured, wind developers can sell into wholesale markets or sell to the
incumbent utilities under a PPA. Some utilities are pursuing options for owning and
operating their own wind projects.
At the national level, FERC policies have been implemented to foster competitive
wholesale electricity markets and spur innovation and efficiency improvements.
FERC continues to review and modify, as appropriate, its policies concerning
competition in wholesale power markets. FERC policies cover some of the nation's
electricity grid system, which is made up of transmission lines. FERC treats
transmission as a common carrier, meaning that it requires transmission providers to
allow nondiscriminatory access to their wires. The large wholesale markets enable a
more effective exchange of services and compensation for all electricity generators,
including wind power generators, helping them compete for larger shares of
generation markets.
To regulate their utilities, roughly half of the states in the country have integrated
resource planning (IRP) policies in place. An IRP policy requires utilities to evaluate
opportunities to serve loads through energy efficiency and demand reduction
programs on the same basis they use to plan new generation. In addition, utilities
must compare supply alternatives—including fossil and nonfossil resources—on a
risk-adjusted basis. In some decisions made under the IRP process, local customer
preference is considered and can influence decisions made by commissions in
selecting generation options. As a result, the IRP process has been an important
factor in establishing wind power markets.
In aggregate, the federal government is the largest single consumer of electricity in
the world. Federal agency electricity consumption in 2005 was more than 55,000
gigawatt-hours (GWh), which would equate to approximately 18 gigawatts (GW) of
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
wind capacity at a 35% capacity factor. As a result, federal agencies were
encouraged to meet an executive order renewable energy goal of 2.5% of site
electricity from new renewable energy sources by the end of 2005. Agencies
exceeded the goal considerably with a final tally of about 3,800 GWh (6.9%) of the
electricity they consumed coming from renewable sources (DOE 2006). There was a
dramatic increase in 2004 and 2005, largely because of renewable energy certificate
(REC) purchases by the Air Force, the General Services Administration, and the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Overall, 96% of federal renewable
energy—outside the Department of Defense—was purchased with RECs.
The Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 2005 also guides federal agency energy use. It
requires the agencies to incorporate renewable energy into their electricity supply
mix at an escalating rate beginning at 3.0% in 2007 and increasing up to 7.5% by
2013, to the extent economically feasible and technically practicable. Both EPAct
2005 and the executive order goal will help advance wind power use across federal
facilities. Wind energy could play a significant role in meeting this goal,
particularly through projects sited on federal lands.
Starting in the 1930s, the federal
government created Power Marketing
Administrations (PMAs) to market
electricity generated by governmentowned hydropower projects. The PMAs
include the Bonneville Power
Administration (BPA), the Western Area
Power Administration (Western), the
Southwestern Power Administration
(SWPA), and the Southeastern Power
Administration (SEPA). Though not
technically a PMA, the Tennessee Valley
Authority (TVA) has a similar purpose in
the Tennessee Valley. Each of these
entities operates as a utility, supplies
power to other utilities, and often owns
extensive transmission networks that are
important to generators, including the wind
industry. Western and BPA have extensive
transmission grids in regions with
significant wind potential. Generally, the PMAs and the TVA are mandated by
Congress to set rates at the lowest possible levels consistent with sound business
principles. The PMAs provide access to available transmission capacity on their
systems under FERC-approved transmission tariffs.
Under a scenario of significant wind energy expansion, multiple revenue streams
and diverse markets for wind generation output will be increasingly important.
Compliance and voluntary markets, which have the potential to create separate and
complementary revenue streams for supporting wind energy generation, can reduce
risks. Emerging emissions markets might also provide revenue streams.
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
Policy-Driven Markets
Compliance markets, or markets where there are standards for renewable energy
contributions, play an important role in supporting the development of wind energy
resources. Today, 25 states plus the District of Columbia have established renewable
portfolio standards (RPS) requirements, which proscribe the amount of renewable
energy that must be produced within the state. These compliance markets have been
growing rapidly in recent years and hold potential to substantially contribute to
expansion of wind energy capacity. Current state RPS policies call for about 55 GW
of new renewable energy capacity by 2020, and a number of states are considering
increasing their targets.
Voluntary or Green Power Markets
Voluntary markets for renewable energy have also played a key role in supporting
new wind energy development in recent years. Today, more than 500,000 electricity
customers across the nation are purchasing green power products through regulated
utility companies, from green power marketers in a competitive market setting, or in
the form of RECs.
These voluntary purchasers support about 2 GW of new renewable energy capacity,
mostly wind. Sales have recently grown at annual rates exceeding 60%. Large
nonresidential customers—including businesses, universities, and federal, state, and
local governments—are driving much of the growth, and this trend is likely to
Voluntary REC markets can also be important because they might be able to support
wind energy projects in regions that have good wind regimes but no compliance
markets (e.g., RPS). Because RECs are sold separately from commodity electricity,
they can be used to support wind energy facilities in regions with the best resources.
Some factors do limit the effectiveness of RECs, though, including the lack of a
national REC tracking system, the lack of a national REC trading system, and the
difficulty of using RECs in project financing.
Air Quality Markets
Throughout the past several decades, approaches for controlling pollution from
fossil-based power generators have moved from traditional command and control
strategies to market-oriented trading regimes that allow the most cost-effective
emission reduction techniques to be applied first. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions
were the first to be controlled with cap and trade programs, and now, nitrogen
oxides (NOx) and mercury (Hg) programs have been added. Others, such as carbon
dioxide (CO2) programs, are currently under serious consideration. Markets must
have accurate price information to operate efficiently; and these programs help to
incorporate the external costs of pollutants from carbon-based fuels into power
There are four basic wind applications:
Utility-scale wind power plants, both land-based and offshore
Community-owned projects, which often produce power for local
consumption and sell bulk power under contracts
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
Institutional and business applications
Off-grid home installations and behind-the-meter farm/ranch/home
Utility-scale wind power plants produce large amounts of wholesale power and
account for more than 90% of all wind power generated in the United States. The
size and number of turbines vary in each of these applications. Off-grid and behind
the-meter projects usually employ turbines smaller than 100 kilowatts (kW), and
wind power plants typically use turbines larger than 1,000 kW.
Wind projects range from less than 400 watts (W) to more than 400 megawatts
(MW), with much larger projects expected in the future. The utility-scale technology
that started in California in the early 1980s revolved around 50- to 100-kW
machines. The standard size of today's more efficient and reliable turbines ranges
from 1,500 kW to 2,500 kW. A 1,000-kW turbine can supply electricity for about
300 homes.
Wind power plants consist of a number of individual wind turbines that are
generally operated through a common control center. The number can range from a
few, to dozens, to hundreds of energy-producing turbines.
Wind projects that are 2,000 megawatts or larger have been proposed. Such largescale wind projects will bring about new challenges and benefits and will require
(and are large enough to justify) dedicated large-scale transmission to carry power
long distances on land or shorter distances offshore to urban demand centers.
Accelerated growth of wind power in the United States would almost certainly
require developing a number of these very large-scale projects, for several reasons:
Siting constraints on traditional projects: Installing large
numbers of turbines in remote regions minimizes landowner
objections to dense turbine siting in populated areas.
Geographic distribution of the wind resource: Most high-quality
land-based wind resources in the nation are in mountain and plains
states. The 20% Wind Scenario would require significant amounts
of these resources to be captured.
Development pace and scale of development: A few very large
projects can add as much wind generation capacity as hundreds of
traditional 100-MW projects and can be developed and built much
more quickly.
Restrictions on land-based deployment: Some energy-constrained
coastal areas will depend on offshore wind resources that will
require large-scale project development to reduce overall
infrastructure costs.
Coastal areas, especially in California and the northeastern United States, pay higher
than average prices for electricity, so offshore wind developers have an added
incentive—in the form of high market prices—to enter these markets. There are
uncertainties with permitting requirements in federal waters. However, the Minerals
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
and religious centers have installed their own wind projects. offshore wind market could play a more significant role in bringing new power generation online in selected regions of the country where electricity prices are higher than average. higher foundation and infrastructure costs. forthcoming 2008). engage rural and economic development interests. and the added cost of O&M associated with offshore turbine locations and the marine environment. market and policy uncertainties are limiting the deployment of offshore wind turbines alone (see chapters 3 and 5 for more discussion of offshore wind). In addition. universities. the cost of offshore wind projects is higher than land-based turbines by about 40%. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 139 . and build a larger constituency with a direct stake in the industry's success. • Galvanizes support: Local ownership and increased local impacts broaden support for wind energy.S. Schools. as well as the wind–diesel hybrid systems that are deployed in remote village settings.3 COMMUNITY WIND Community stakeholders have started to evaluate wind development as a way to diversify and revitalize rural economies.3. such as. This higher cost can be attributed to the added complexity of siting wind turbines in a marine and potentially harsher environment. where turbines are connected to distribution lines and supply electricity to partially meet local loads. state governments have passed aggressive RPS requirements. the U. Local investments and local impacts produce local advocates. and they are connected on either side of the meter. Small wind can also include small units for off-grid applications such as remote homes and livestock watering facilities. often selling excess electricity sold back to the grid on distribution lines. 6 Community wind is likely to advance wind power market growth because it has the following advantages: • Strengthens communities: Locally owned and controlled wind development substantially broadens local tax bases and generates new income for farmers. municipal utilities. The MMS program is expected to be in place toward the end of 2008.4 SMALL WIND Small wind (sometimes called "distributed wind energy") refers to wind turbines that are generally smaller than 100 kW each. landowners.Management Service (MMS) is in the process of developing proposed rules. Residences or businesses can install small wind turbines on site to meet their local electricity demands. Community wind includes both on-site wind turbines used to offset customer's loads and wholesale wind generation sold to a third party. an engineering company based in Overland. which reduce up-front capital costs to the consumer. and communities. and coastal communities support this energy option. according to a study conducted by Black & Veatch. higher than expected operations and maintenance (O&M) because of accessibility issues. comprise the primary market for small wind.3. 6. 6. On-grid installations are currently supported by a variety of state and utility financial incentives. farmers. Native American tribes. along with a programmatic environmental impacts statement. Kansas (Black and Veatch. Although community wind projects can be of any size. Alaska. population density restricts power plant installations. they are usually commercial in scale with capacities greater than 500 kW. In the next 10 years. technical. Still. The on-grid behind-the meter applications. shallow water sites are available. rural electric cooperatives. small businesses.
O&M. such as public utility commissions and their staffers. which is conservatively estimated at more than 1. and engineering. and zoning and permitting. Community wind began in the United States in Minnesota in 1997 when local advocates worked with the legislature to create the Minnesota Renewable Energy Production Incentive (REPI). could make an important contribution toward the 20% Wind Scenario. 15-. Windgenerating potential on tribal lands.033/kWh and standard procedures for interconnection for wind projects below 2 MW—was created in 2001 as part of Xcel Energy's merger settlement that community wind projects really became feasible. federal government and are afforded increased opportunities under EPAct 2005.125 MW by 2003. Small wind energy market challenges include turbine availability (product gaps exist for 5-. and 1. in turn. It also represents a form of distributed generation. small wind manufacturing industry dominates today's world markets. 6.01 to $0. Xcel Energy.S. 825 MW by 1999. Pairing of these complementary policies allowed the community wind market to really take off. which paid $0. and deploying distributed wind energy in the rural or remote parts of the United States can help to build acceptance of future wind power plants. The types of stakeholders and their perceptions of wind energy are likely to vary markedly from one location to another.Small wind has lower wind speed requirements. The U. local wind developers had to individually negotiate with utilities for interconnection and PPAs.5 GW. turbine reliability.5 NATIVE AMERICAN WIND PROJECTS Native American reservations constitute a special community with emerging interests in wind power development. to acquire a growing amount of wind energy. economics and lack of financial incentives across all market segments. Local ownership was a priority for those who created this incentive. so more locations can accommodate and harvest wind.3. and greater than 100-kW turbines). At least 39 Native American reservations with significant wind power potential (Class 4 and higher) are located in remote areas that could support development. This created a reliable wind energy market in the state which. As markets continue to expand and manufacturers increase their volume. It was not until a special community wind tariff— establishing a set power purchase rate of $0. In the beginning. Although small wind systems have higher per-kilowatt costs than utility-scale systems. and a second round was fully subscribed within 6 months. Self-governed Native American tribes have a unique legal relationship with the U. 6. the result will be lower cost turbines.S. utilities and 140 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .015/kWh for the first 10 years of production for projects smaller than 2 MW. Community Wind in Minnesota 6 Minnesota took major steps to encourage the development of renewables by requiring the state's largest utility. including construction. The initial Minnesota REPI allocation was then quickly subscribed. The target was 425 MW in 1994.4 STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT As wind energy development proceeds in the United States. helped wind energy find its way into many areas of Minnesota's economy. An important part of any stakeholder initiative is to identify the full range of interested parties and decision makers. It also forged the path for development of permitting rules that other states and counties use as models for writing their own regulations. which are also higher. utility interconnections. The preceding sections outlined the markets and supply segments that can contribute to the 20% Wind Scenario. site selection and development will require well-designed and effective stakeholder engagement. they compete with retail instead of wholesale electricity rates.
Standards for renewable energy contributions as well as voluntary markets have the potential to create separate and complementary revenue streams for supporting wind energy generation while reducing risks. experience has shown that openness. Finally. Although this is a much more difficult task than is generally understood. Today. state and local officials. and a participatory process all contribute substantially to successful outcomes. which have been growing rapidly in recent years. • Concerns and requirements of various stakeholders should be assessed. • The developer. A long-term commitment to understanding and 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 141 . And if the significant increase in wind power development under the 20% Wind Scenario is to be realized. and members of the host community. Emerging emissions markets can also be a source of revenue streams. Understanding stakeholders' interests and how to effectively communicate with these various groups is central to the pursuit of 20% wind energy by 2030. 6. • A neutral third party should carefully evaluate effectiveness of the engagement process along the way. To create the catalyst necessary to support aggressive wind energy growth.regional transportation organizations and their customers. state and federal legislators. many stakeholders will need to embrace a robust wind future.5 CONCLUSIONS Within the 20% Wind Scenario. Needs should be identified and defined through interviews with stakeholders. Developers must also be able to plan for and manage a predetermined and predictable process. to ensure that any initiatives incorporate new stakeholders that might appear and new concerns that might arise. multiple revenue streams and multiple markets for wind generation output would be increasingly important. many different market drivers must converge. with an emphasis on two-way communications. and financiers. 6 • The stakeholder-engagement process should begin before the site is assessed and selected so that baseline information can be established. This will also allow deficiencies in engagement and communications to be forthrightly addressed. Experience with past wind and other energy facility development in the United States has brought home the critical importance of stakeholder involvement. The energy community now generally recognizes that effectively engaging stakeholders in siting-related decisions requires attention to a number of key factors: • State and local siting guidelines and procedures are needed to establish a known and deliberate siting process in which local concerns and siting issues are fully considered. can make substantial contributions to the expansion of wind energy capacity. state and local officials. and the host communities should collaborate on designing stakeholder outreach • A comprehensive list of stakeholders—including those who will be targeted in the engagement efforts— should be compiled early in the process. 25 states have established RPS requirements. serious consideration of local concerns. no element in an engagement and communications effort is more important than building trust among the developers. Stakeholder interests are as diverse as stakeholder types. Compliance markets. Stakeholders should continue to be actively engaged throughout the facility development and operational process.
2007.gov/femp/pdfs/annrep05. DC: EIA. DOE/EIA-0383. et al.pdf. Annual Report to Congress on Federal Government Energy Management and Conservation Programs Fiscal Year 2005. DC: DOE. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030. 20 % Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. http://www1.working with stakeholders will be critical for deploying significant levels of wind power. Pletka.S. Washington. 2006. Department of Energy).. R.energy.html O'Connell. 2007.eia. Report No. 6 142 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . EIA (Energy Information Administration).6 REFERENCES DOE (U.doe. Overland Park. http://www. and R. Washington. electricity from wind is to be realized. 6.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/index. KS: Black & Veatch.eere. All segments of the market must be taken into account when planning for the wide adoption of wind-generated electricity. Market forces need to be targeted and utilized efficiently to leverage stakeholder interests if 20% of U.S.
which assumes no wind growth after 2006 for analytic simplicity. although actual tower footprints are relatively small. 20% Wind Scenario Impacts A. The relative cost difference between a scenario including 20% wind-generated electricity and a scenario in which no additional wind technology is installed after 2006 is the primary metric. electricity sector through 2030. Modeling assumptions are described this appendix (See Considerations in the 20% Wind Table A-1) and Appendix B.Appendix A. All modeling assumptions contribute to this incremental cost of wind energy. The assumptions used for these analyses were developed from a variety of sources and experiences that span the wind and electricity generation industries. Water savings associated with significant wind energy generation have been externally calculated as well. with varying challenges. costs. but today's U. • Technology and power market innovations would make it easier to handle a variable energy resource such as wind. benefits. model-specific details of these assumptions are presented in Appendix B. and levels of success. • Domestic manufacturing capacity might not be sufficient to accommodate near-term rapid growth in U. wind generation capacity The gap may be filled by other countries. This ambitious growth could be reached in many different ways. and technical challenges of providing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind in 2030. This report examines one particular scenario for achieving this dramatic growth and contrasts it to another scenario called no new wind. wind power must be integrated into the electric grid with other generation sources. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version Scenario • Wind resources of varying quality exist across the United States and offshore. The 20% Wind Scenario would require U. • Wind installations will require significant amounts of land. • Typically.1 Introduction This appendix describes the analytic tool and assumptions that were used to identify some key components of the impacts. • New transmission lines would be required to connect new wind power sources to demand centers.S. The 20% level was chosen exogenously as the central assumption of the evaluation. • Transmission costs add to the cost of delivered wind energy costs. Thus changes to the assumptions increase or decrease the incremental cost of of the 20% Wind Scenario over the scenario that does not include wind energy. No sensitivities exploring changes to the assumptions were performed for this analysis. wind power capacity to grow from the current 11–12 gigawatts (GW) to more than 300 GW over the next 23 years. grid requires significant upgrading and expansion under almost any scenario.S.S. Carbon emission reductions in this 20% Wind Scenario have also been derived from the WinDS model outputs. 143 . they are sometimes far from demand centers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model was employed to simulate generation capacity expansion of the U. This model used a wind energy generation rate that would result in production of 20% of projected electricity demand from wind by 2030.S. A • Although land-based resources are less expensive to capture.
the scenario describes the mix of wind resources that would have to be captured. While the new EIA data could change specific numbers in the report. wind technology development is projected to continue based on a history of performance improvements. there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what level of contribution wind could or is likely to make. and Blair 2006). and required utility and transmission infrastructure changes associated with 20% wind in 2030. although from a very small base. 144 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Hand. an increase of approximately 1% per year. Specifically. The national transmission system is assumed to evolve in ways favorable to wind energy development by shifting toward large regional markets. Broadly stated. 12 AEO data from 2007 were used in this report. future environmental study and permit requirements are not expected to add significant costs to wind technology. the geographic distribution of the wind power installations. based on a trajectory proposed in a previous NREL study (Laxson.S. In addition. The 20% wind by 2030 trajectory from the NREL study was implemented in WinDS by calculating the percentage of annual energy production from wind.6 GW—will be installed by 2030 (EIA 2007). For example. The analysis was also simplified by assuming that the contributions to U. no sensitivity analyses have been done to identify how the results would differ if assumptions were changed. estimated land needs. developing a "most likely" forecast would be difficult. These investigators forced the WinDS model to reach the 20% level for wind-generated electricity by 2030 and evaluated aggressive near-term growth rates. this 20% Wind Scenario is designed to optimize costs while recognizing certain constraints and considerations (see sidebar above). In its Annual Energy Outlook with Projections to 2030 (shortened in this appendix to AEO 2007 or simply AEO). Next. AEO released new data in March of 2008. Figure A-1 illustrates the energy generation trajectory proposed in the study. which were not incorporated into this report. This yields a parameterized estimate of some of the impacts associated with increased reliance on wind energy generation. it would not change the overall message of the report. In addition. the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that an additional 7 GW—beyond the 2006 installed capacity of 11. The analysis presented here sidesteps these uncertainties and contrasts the impacts of producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind with a scenario in which no additional wind is added after 2006.The authors recognize that U. electricity supplies from other renewable sources of energy would remain at 2006 levels in both scenarios. and the corresponding annual wind capacity installations that the WinDS model projects will meet these energy generation percentages. they examined sustainable levels of wind capacity installations that would maintain electricity generation levels at 20% and accommodate the repowering of aging wind turbine equipment in wind installations beyond 2030. A The scenario reflects several assumptions about generation technology cost and performance as well as electric grid system operationg and expansion. and that wind energy technology will be a part of any future electricity generation scenario for the United States. At the same time. It is not a definitive identification of the exact locations of wind turbines and transmission lines.12 Other organizations are projecting higher capacity additions. The 20% Wind Scenario was constructed by specifying annual wind energy generation in each year from 2007 to 2030. wind capacity today is growing rapidly. and given today's uncertainties.S.
Some of the consequences of a 20% Wind Scenario in 2030. It is implicitly assumed that a stable policy environment that recognizes wind's impacts could lead to growth rates that would result in the 20% Wind Scenario. so that the Nation's energy demand would continue to be met at the 20% wind level. including carbon emission reductions and natural gas demand reduction. were calculated based on the results of the WinDS model. in which technology improvements and wind resource variations were not considered. A The 20% Wind Scenario does not include policy incentives such as a production tax credit (PTC) or carbon regulations. In addition to modeling the expansion of the electricity grid to transmit power from wind-rich geographic areas to demand (load) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 145 . sustaining a level of annual installations at approximately 16 GW/year beyond 2030 would accommodate repowering of aging wind turbine equipment and increased electricity demand. and operational assumptions in the WinDS model show that reaching an annual installation rate of about 16 GW/year by 2018 could result in generation capacity capable of supplying 20% of the nation's electricity demand by 2030. and Blair (2006) and corresponding annual wind capacity installation for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model The combined cost. The differences between the two cases are attributed to the incorporation of wind power. because turbine performance is unchanged over time. The NREL study (Laxson. This annual installation rate is affected by the quality of wind resources selected for development as well as future wind turbine performance. Hand. and Blair 2006) provides an upper level of about 20 GW/yr. To estimate the impacts associated with incorporating electricity from wind into the grid at this level. Prescribed annual wind technology generation as a percent of national electricity demand from Laxson.S. Hand. From a planning and operational perspective. technology. and Blair 2006). The declining annual installed capacity after 2024 is an artifact of the prescribed energy generation from the NREL study (Laxson. assuming no new transmission will be built).Figure A-1. Based on the wind resource data and the projected wind technology improvements presented in this report.g. a comparison has been made with a scenario in which no additional wind power would be installed after 2006. Hand. electricity grid at the 20% level appears to be technically feasible without significantly and unrealistically constraining the WinDS model (e. although such policies may make this growth trajectory more likely. integrating wind generation into the U.
These assumptions include projections of future costs and performance for all generation technologies. see http://www. Each wind supply region in WinDS includes a mix of these wind resource classes. but it uses statistics to approximate these requirements.2. coupled with transmission system expansion that is favorable to wind energy.centers. Wind resource classes 3 through 7 (at 50 meters [m] above ground level) are specified for 358 wind supply regions across the continental United States. Table A-1 summarizes the modeling assumptions. along with conventional technologies such as coal plants (pulverized coal and integrated gasification combined cycle [IGCC]). Wind technology options include land-based and offshore technologies.2 Methodology The WinDS model was used to identify some key components of the impacts of producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind energy by 2030. Explicit cost and performance projections are used rather than learning algorithms generally used by EIA. These assumptions affect only the direct cost to the electricity sector associated with this level of wind energy expansion. Resource maps reference those produced by the Wind Powering America (WPA) initiative or by individual state programs. A A. and projected growth rates for wind generation. The assumptions used for the WinDS model were obtained from a number of sources. is designed to address the principal market issues related to the penetration of wind energy technologies into the electric sector. wind resources as a function of geographic location within the continental United States. These cost and performance assumptions differ from those used by EIA. The assumptions are based on 2006 market data developed by Black & Veatch for all generation technologies. See Appendix B for a detailed discussion of the treatment of wind variability. the WinDS base case (Denholm and Short 2006). developed by NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC). A. and include environmental and land use exclusions. nuclear plants.gov/analysis/winds/. and natural-gas-fired combustion turbine and combined cycle plants. Generation capacity expansion is selected to achieve a cost-optimal generation mix to meet 20% wind generation over a 20-year planning horizon for each 2-year period from 2000 to 2030. Offshore wind resources are associated with coastal and Great Lakes regions. nor does it include energy efficiency or demand response technologies. (WinDS does not perform minute-to-minute ancillary service calculations.13 The model operates over multiple regions and time periods. WinDS is a geographic information system (GIS) and linear programming model of electricity capacity expansion for the U. For additional information and documentation. See Appendix B for more information. the model treats wind resource variability on time scales ranging from multiyear capacity planning to minute-to-minute ancillary service requirements.) The 20% Wind Scenario presented here includes future reductions in wind technology costs and increased performance. The model does not include technologies installed "behind the meter" such as cogeneration or other distributed generation systems. and a study performed by Black & Veatch (2007). wholesale market. AEO 2007 (EIA 2007).S. Appendix B describes these assumptions in detail. 146 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . In 13 The model. transmission system expansion costs. including technical experts (see Appendix D).1 Energy Generation Technologies Wind-generation technologies are contained in the WinDS model.nrel.
Wind technology costs in 2005 are assumed to be $1.600/megawatt-mile (MW-mile) 50% of cost covered by wind project Regional cost variations prescribed as follows: 40% higher in New England and New York.Table A-1. These capital costs include construction financing. which reflects recent cost increases 14 All dollar values in appendices A and B are in $US2006. 20% higher in PJM West.5% by 2030 Existing Transmission • 10% of existing transmission capacity available to wind New Transmission • • • • Wheeling Charges • No wheeling charges between balancing areas • Natural gas plant cost ($780/kW in 2005) and Conventional Generation Technology Cost and Performance Fuel Prices • Capacity factor improvements about 15% on average over all wind classes between 2005 and 2030 plants at point of interconnection Transmission will be expanded $1. 30% higher in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) East interconnection. discussions with wind industry professionals. Assumptions used for scenario analysis Scenario Assumptions Renewable Energy Technologies (other than wind) • Contributions to U. and review of cost and performance trends (Black & Veatch 2007).S. decreasing 12.260/kW in 2005) decreases 28% between 2005 and 2030 • Nuclear plant performance stays flat through 2030 • Natural gas prices follow AEO 2007 high fuel price forecast • Coal prices follow AEO 2007 reference fuel price forecast • Uranium fuel price is constant addition to the geographic display of wind resources.730/kW14 (kilowatt. in real US$2006). seasonal and diurnal variations in capacity factor (CF) are computed based on wind resource data. Appendix B contains more information about the wind resource data used for this study. with an energy (other than wind) are held constant at 2006 levels through 2030. The 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 147 .730/kW in 2005 and 2010.520/kW in 2005. decreasing 10% by 2030 • Regional costs vary with population density.120/kW in 2005) increases about 5% through 2015 and then remains flat through 2030 • Coal plant performance improvement of about 5% between 2005 and 2030 • Nuclear plant capital cost ($3. 20% higher in California A performance flat through 2030 • Coal plant capital cost ($2. Experts at Black & Veatch Corporation developed wind technology cost and performance projections based on their experience and market knowledge. additional 20% in New England Shallow Offshore Wind Technology Cost Wind Technology Performance • $2. which adds approximately 5% to the "overnight" capital cost given in Appendix B. electricity supply from renewable Land-Based Wind Technology Cost • $1.
The transmission system is assumed to expand under large. For both types of reserve margin.5% over the same period. Wind energy shipped to another locale can also be transmitted. there must be enough capacity on the line in each seasonal or diurnal time frame to take advantage of wind's full nameplate capacity. Cost and performance projections for nuclear plants assume continued technology development.500/kW in 2005 to $2.2. A. Appendix B gives more details on the cost and performance estimates for current and future years for both land-based and offshore wind technologies. The WinDS model calculates reserve and planning margins at the NERC regional level. regional bases.200/kW in 2030 (real US$2006 including construction financing).attributed to current exchange rates between the euro and the dollar.2 Transmission and Integration Wind energy can be used to meet local loads (i. from $2. Appendix B presents these cost and performance assumptions. the model assumes that a dedicated transmission line will be constructed for wind. and construction financing. by extrapolating historical performance data from 2000 to 2005. loads in the same wind supply region). The wind plant's capacity value is a function of the CF. 148 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . mitigates the variability of wind power. If no capacity remains on that transmission line. If the transmission line crosses between two balancing areas. The cost of offshore wind energy technology is projected to decrease 12. which is representative of these large operating structures. Black & Veatch experts also developed conventional generation technology cost and performance projections based on reported engineering. as well as those in other geographic locations.e. either on the existing grid when capacity is available or on a new transmission line. in the form of capacity factors. procurement. which incorporate polices that favor wind energy. the model considers both planning and operating reserve margins for all North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions. A When integrating wind resources into the grid. Local loads can be met either by transmitting on the existing grid where capacity is available (10% of the capacity of each existing line is assumed to be available for wind) or by building a short.550/kW by 2030 (in US$2006 including construction financing). increased commodity prices. Fossil plant costs were assumed to remain flat beyond 2015 with modest performance improvements for coal plants. and correlation with existing wind capacity installations. Wind technology costs are projected to decrease to $1. as well as the energy associated with other generators transmitting power over that line. and construction costs for currently proposed plants through 2015. Specialists at Black & Veatch developed wind technology performance projections. a constrained supply of wind turbines. Operating grid systems on large. seasonal and diurnal wind variations. such as through the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (Midwest ISO). WinDS accounts for the reduction in wind generation variability that occurs when wind generation is used from disparate wind sites whose output is not fully synchronized with one another. A wind WinDS model applies financing costs in each solution period that requires overnight capital costs as input. In this way the variability of the wind resource is assessed in combination with conventional generation within each NERC region.. dedicated transmission line directly to the local load. regional operation and planning entities.
the transmission cost is borne entirely by the project. A. a supply curve is used to determine the quantity of a product that is available at various prices. the authors of this report have constructed a scenario in which no new wind systems are installed after 2006.energy penetration limit of 25% has been assumed at the interconnect level. Table A-1 outlines the major assumptions in the scenario and supporting analyses. new transmission. based on the participant funding principle adopted by Midwest ISO. This is a huge amount of capacity. For example. which are projected to improve with future technology development. The supply curve uses today's cost and performance figures. To calculate the impacts of 20% wind energy. The regions were aggregated such that an overall supply curve for national wind potential could be developed. and fuel. A. excluding transmission costs—is shown in Figure A-2. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 149 . however. regional planning process. The national supply curve for bus-bar energy costs—for the wind plant alone. equivalent to roughly eight times the existing nameplate generating capacity in the country. be it wind or conventional generation. This scenario assumes that the conventional generation mix expands to meet electricity demand with currently enacted policies. For this report. which is estimated at 983 GW (EIA 2007). wind generation potential is plotted against its calculated levelized cost (LC) of electricity in ascending order. This tariff structure is assumed to apply nationwide. lower speed wind projects have higher costs and represent the next step up on the supply curve. this scenario assumes that there are no wheeling charges between balancing areas. the 20% Wind Scenario assumes that 10% of existing grid capacity is available for wind energy. The difference between the two cases. excludes the cost of transmission or integration. This price. were obtained from the AEO reference case (EIA 2007). Finally. The exception is for new transmission lines that are built at a project in one interconnection region to meet loads in another interconnection region. The sum of these direct costs represents the total cost to the electricity sector for generation choices through 2030. as well as financing and economic assumptions. Total direct costs of all generation technologies were estimated over a 20-year planning horizon in each two-year solution period. In this case. and the ratepayers within the region. The following supply curves compare the quantities and costs for wind resources and show which products can be brought to market at the lowest cost (resources on the left side of Figure A-2 "Supply Curve for wind energy: current busbar energy costs"). The figure illustrates that more than 8. See Appendix B for more information. See Appendix B for wind resource estimates.000 GW of wind energy is available in the United States at $85/MWh or less. Cost and potential were estimated for each region based on a GIS optimization strategy developed by NREL.3 Quantification of Impacts Projected electricity demand estimates.2. operations and maintenance (O&M).3 A Wind Capacity Supply Curves In economic analysis. including costs for capital investment. Consistent with the large. 20% wind and no new wind. the potential (in gigawatts) from high-speed wind resources has been plotted against its levelized cost (dollars per megawatt-hour [MWh]). Also. represents the impact of wind energy. the cost of new transmission is assumed to be split equally between the originating project.
Figure A-3 shows only the supply curve for wind projects that can enter the existing transmission system (or that can power nearby loads). 150 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .Figure A-2. shows more than 1. Please see Appendix B or (Black & Veatch 2007) for more information. This supply curve also shows the cost of connecting directly to load centers that are in the same balancing area as the wind resource. technically or politically viable. however. offshore wind is not costcompetitive with land-based wind technologies.000 GW of wind energy— approximately 600 GW of land-based and roughly 400 GW of offshore capacity. the national resource potential for land-based wind technologies exceeds the existing nameplate generating capacity in the country by a factor of eight. as the higher classes are the lowest cost (and least abundant resources). that does not mean capturing that full potential is economically. The supply curve shows the simple relationship between wind power class and cost. The supply curve further illustrates that more than 600 GW of wind are available at or below $100/MWh at current bus-bar energy costs and performance indicators. Developing all of this resource is not economical and would require significant modifications in the transmission system. PTC and transmission and integration costs are excluded. However. Supply curve for wind energy—current bus-bar energy costs See Appendix B for wind technology cost and performance projections. This curve is produced as an input to the WinDS model. It does not include wind projects that would require new transmission to deliver power to markets distant from the generation system. A The national supply curve in Figure A-3 shows the costs of connecting to the existing transmission system. At today's costs. Finally. but under certain conditions it could produce enough energy to greatly exceed 20% of the nation's electricity supply in the future. The supply curve. given that 10% of capacity is available for new wind generation. These supply curves do not factor in transmission or integration costs or technology improvements. given that a maximum of 100% of that load can be served by wind. Classes 3 and 4 are much more prevalent.
A Figure A-4. Offshore wind technology would account for about 18%—54 GW—of total wind capacity by 2030. providing 20% of the nation's projected electricity demand by 2030 would require the installation of 293. Cumulative installed wind power capacity required to produce 20% of projected electricity by 2030 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 151 . generating nearly 1.4 GW of wind technology (in addition to the 11.4 GW currently installed) for a cumulative installed capacity of 304. Figure A-4 shows the cumulative installed capacity of land-based and offshore wind technologies required to generate 20% of projected electricity demand by 2030.4 Impacts Based on the assumptions used to create the 20% Wind Scenario.200 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually. Supply curve for wind energy: energy costs including connection to 10% of existing transmission grid capacity A.8 GW.Figure A-3.
This figure also shows a significant reduction of energy generated from combined cycle natural gas plants (Gas-CC) as well as reduced energy from new pulverized coal plants (Coal-New). is made up of the most cost-effective conventional technologies in place today. Changes in assumptions would produce a different mix of conventional generation technologies. producing 20% wind energy in the nation's portfolio by 2030 could be technically feasible. The geographic distribution of wind turbines and the transmission expansion required to accommodate them are also addressed. of course. The generation mix produced by the WinDS model based on the requirement that 20% electricity generation will come from wind is pictured in Figure A-5. 152 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . The 20% Wind Scenario.A.4. Figure A-5. excluding wind. when applied to the 20% wind and the no new Wind Scenarios. Wind energy grows as a percentage of the nation's generation mix. The resulting generation mix. would result in dramatically higher levels of wind energy generation. Natural gas technologies make a greater contribution to the total mix through 2016 and then decline to a level similar to today's level by 2030. This scenario does not assume that carbon regulation policies are in place and reflects the assumptions listed in table A-1 as well as others. Nuclear power generation declines slightly as a fraction of the total generation mix. and coal-generated electricity remains the major generation technology in 2030. Sophisticated routines in the WinDS model use existing transmission or build new transmission while incorporating associated wind integration costs. This scenario shows that with wind technology advancement associated reductions in costs and changes in the grid system. 20% Wind Scenario electricity generation mix 2000–2030 A Figure A-6 illustrates the comparison in net generation in 2030 between conventional energy and wind energy generation.1 Generation Mix This section presents impacts on the remaining generation mix and on the emissions of carbon from producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind in 2030.
including 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 153 . the contribution from wind is the primary Figure A-6. The 20% Wind Scenario does require additional gas combustion turbine capacity (Gas-CT) to maintain grid reliability when wind resources vary.Figure A-7 compares generating capacity by 2030 between the 20% Wind Scenario and the no new Wind Scenario. As shown in Figure A-6. relatively little electricity is generated from these plants in both scenarios. Capacity by technology in 2030 A difference. Several important assumptions could affect the resulting mix of conventional generation in output from the WinDS model. Generation by technology in 2030 Figure A-7. Again. The 20% Wind Scenario requires less Coal-New and Gas-CC capacity.
This scenario assumes that the conventional generation mix is allowed to expand while optimizing total costs without any carbon regulation policy. assuming wind generation at 20% of U. but the natural gas price forecast from the high-price case was deemed more probable. the WinDS model does not include fuel price elasticity. provides one way of estimating the potential carbon emissions reductions that could be attributed to wind energy. The reference case coal fuel projections were implemented. Carbon regulation: The imposition of a carbon constraint would also change this generation mix significantly. and other sources. electricity.100 million metric tons of carbon equivalent (MMTCE) attributed to producing 20% of the nation's electricity from wind during the significant wind energy expansion period.4. A.S. This could be important in scenarios that differ significantly from the scenario assumed in the AEO 2006 (EIA 2007). coal. Cumulative carbon emission reductions attributed to wind energy (compared to expanding the generation mix without wind energy) 154 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and modifying these prices would affect generation from gas. in which no additional wind technology is installed after 2006. reducing future Coal-new and Gas-CC capacity. and leading to significantly more plant retirements and less use of existing coal plants.z z z Fuel price forecasts: The WinDS model uses regional gas and coal fuel price projections from the AEO 2006 (EIA 2007). Figure A-8 illustrates the cumulative carbon emissions reduction of more than 2. Fuel price elasticity: For this analysis. For example. the demand for gas and coal would decrease. resulting in a lower price for both (thereby conversely driving up demand) and settling on a cost value lower than that currently used in the model. Other gas and coal future price projections could be used.2 Carbon Emission Reduction Comparing the 20% Wind Scenario with the no new Wind Scenario. A Figure A-8. increasing future Coal-IGCC and Nuclear capacity.
In 2006. This shift of natural gas from the electric sector translates into reduced national demand for natural gas of 11%. Because of the way electricity markets operate. Past efforts to forecast natural gas prices have not been very successful (see for example. gas-fired generation accounted for nearly 20% of the nation's electricity generation capacity. including the prospect for moderating natural gas demand.4 Land Use Under the 20% Wind Scenario. Fuel usage and savings resulting from 20% Wind Scenario A Wind power offers the country important resource diversification benefits. have risen to more than $6/MMBtu and most forecasts expect prices to remain high relative to historical standards.000 MMTCE. This graph indicates that a reduction in coal use across all coal technologies and a reduction in natural gas use comprise a significant fraction of the total amount that would be used without additional wind installations. Figure A-9.4.2005 to 2030. Incorporating enough wind generation technology to produce 20% of the nation's electricity demand by 2030 could reduce the electricity sector's natural gas requirements by about 50% and its coal requirements by about 18%. A. which hovered near $2/MMBty in the 1990s. A. Wiser and Bolinger 2004 and Bolinger and Wiser 2006). Hawaii and Alaska have not been represented in this study. but both states are 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 155 . Wellhead natural gas prices.4.3 Reduced Natural Gas Demand Figure A-9 demonstrates the decrease in coal and gas fuel use for the 20% Wind Scenario relative to the no new Wind Scenario. the price of gas-fired generation determines the price of electricity. at least 100 MW would be installed in 43 of the 48 contiguous states. wind turbines required to supply 20% of the nation's electricity (about 300 GW) would be broadly distributed across the continental United States. Extrapolating cumulative carbon emissions avoidance over the 20 year wind plant life through 2050 results in avoided emissions of more than 4. and avoided carbon emission in 2030 alone of 225 MMTCE.
The model assumes that local load is met by the generation technologies in a given region. Some states such as Louisiana. regardless of the fact that Ohio's wind resources are sufficient to support wind technology development. Projected wind capacity installations in 2012 156 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . are discussed in Appendix B. reducing the need for additional generating capacity. A Figure A-10. 15%. and 2030 (approximately 3%. In reality. 2024. The transmission cost assumptions are higher in Ohio than in neighboring Indiana and Michigan. Additionally Ohio's wind resources are concentrated in the western part of the state. these levels will vary significantly as electricity markets evolve and state policies promote or restrict wind energy production. which could significantly affect the wind technology capacity installed in a given state. current longterm power purchase agreements are not implemented in WinDS. which makes Ohio's wind resource appear less cost-effective in comparison. The model shows that broad geographic distribution of wind energy capacity serves to meet the broadly distributed national electricity load. The specific assumptions used in this model significantly affect each state's projected wind capacity. 9%. and Alabama have lower quality wind resources than Ohio. but under the right economic circumstances some wind energy development could occur in those states. respectively). and 20% electricity generation. Limitations of wind resource input data. See Table A-1 and Appendix B for more information on the assumptions. other factors related to the model logic can influence the amount of wind capacity installed in a given state. Mississippi. 2018. The lack of wind capacity installed in Ohio is assumed to be primarily a result of the amount of existing conventional energy resources that supply the state. In addition to wind resources. The WinDS model uses the best available assessment of local wind resources to expand wind technology capacity. Figures A-10 to A-13 illustrate capacity expansion of wind energy representing the years 2012. The WinDS model optimizes the installation of wind energy capacity within each of the three large interconnection areas in the United States. For instance.expected to install more than 100 MW of wind capacity.
Projected wind capacity installations in 2024 A The black outline in each state in Figures A-10 to A-13 represents land area required for a wind farm.000 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 157 . These figures use standard exclusion practices. Projected wind capacity installations in 2018 Figure A-12.Figure A-11. which are detailed in Appendix B. would be smaller than 61. assuming a turbine density of 5 MW per square kilometer (km2). corresponding to the capacity shown on the green scale. The total land area of the United States required for 305 GW of wind energy.
A A. 15%. the model can assess transmission lines directly from the wind site to loads within the same region. Meeting 20% of the demand from wind requires transmission expansion. Figures A-14 to A-17 illustrate the expansion of the transmission system required under the 20% Wind Scenario for the years 2012. and 20% wind-electricity generation. and 2030 (approximately 3%. 2024. significant transmission expansion will be required. Only about 2% to 5% of the wind farm area. In-region transmission: In any of the 358 wind regions in the United States. which is represented by the brown square within each black outline. and the balance of the area remains available for its original use (such as farming or ranching). Projected wind capacity installations in 2030 km2 (50. New lines: The WinDS model can evaluate the use of straight-line transmission lines in the 358 wind regions.4. either by improving the grid or by drawing on existing unused capacity. respectively). 158 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and other infrastructure components. is occupied by towers roads.000 km2 for offshore projects).5 Transmission To meet the nation's growing demand for electricity. 9%. Three types of transmission systems included in the WinDS model could be used to transport wind power around the country: z z z Existing grid: The model assumes that 10% of the existing grid could be used for new wind capacity.Figure A-13.000 km2 for land-based projects and 11. The model assumes that appropriate planning will allow new transmission lines to be constructed as additional capacity is needed. 2018. specifically to accommodate such a geographically dispersed resource.
Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2012 A Figure A-15. Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2018 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 159 . reserve margin constraint Figure A-14.The 20% Wind Scenario assumes that transmission planning and grid operations occur on several levels—planning at the national level.
Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2030 160 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .Figure A-16. Transport of wind energy over existing and new transmission lines projected for 2024 A Figure A-17.
A Table A-2. The cost of using existing transmission compared with new transmission can shift the relative amounts significantly. the first wind system installed either uses the existing grid or is accompanied by a short transmission line built to supply local loads. only those that cross balancing area boundaries are illustrated. O&M. Transmission options are based on a variety of factors. and the resulting average distance traveled by each megawatt. The blue arrows in each figure represent wind energy transported on existing transmission lines between balancing areas. For visual clarity. Appendix B contains a more complete discussion of transmission options used in the WinDS model. New transmission lines built to support load in a balancing area with wind resources in that same balancing area are not pictured in the figure. as the existing grid capacity is filled. Distribution of wind capacity on existing and new transmission lines Transmission Type Existing Transmission Lines New Capacity Lines within a WinDS region New Capacity Lines that Cross One or More WinDS Region Boundaries A. and fuel costs. as well as transmission.planning at the NERC level. In later years. The balancing areas are shaded in purple to depict the amount of locally installed wind. Table A-2 summarizes projected installed wind capacity in 2030 by transmission type.5 2030 Wind Capacity 2030 MW-Miles 71 GW 20 million MW-miles 278 miles 67 GW N/A N/A (estimated at 50 miles) 166 GW 30 million MW-miles 180 Miles Average Distance Traveled for Each MW Direct Electricity Sector Cost WinDS has been used to estimate the direct costs of meeting 20% of the nation's electricity requirements with wind power in accordance with the 20% Wind Scenario (see Appendix B for detailed calculations of each cost element). number of megawatt-miles of transmission. and load growth planning and operations at the balancing area (BA) level. the potential costs of future wind development was estimated as the incremental change between these two scenarios. which is assumed to meet local load levels. Direct costs to the electricity sector for each scenario include the capital costs of wind and conventional energy equipment. Generally. By comparing this scenario with a reference case that involves no new wind generation after 2006. The red arrows represent new transmission lines constructed to transport wind energy between balancing areas. The location and relative number of red or blue arrows are dependent on the relative cost of using the existing grid or building new lines. additional new transmission lines are built. The arrows originate and terminate at the centroid of a balancing area and do not represent the physical location of demand centers or wind resources. these figures display wind capacity only at the balancing area level. External analyses based on the WinDS model have estimated water consumption reductions. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 161 .
including coal and nuclear plants. then.g. Capital and transmission expansion costs are calculated for generation capacity added through 2030.. WinDS modeling is used through 2030 and extrapolations of fuel usage and O&M requirements for 2030-2050. These costs represent the effect of investment decisions made over 20 years. Assuming that conventional plants are built near load centers is a simplifying 162 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . which is offset somewhat by additional fuel costs for the no Wind Scenario. the incremental differences in fuel consumption. the time period of analysis is 2007-2030. Estimated costs of transmission expansion in the no Wind Scenario. and water consumption between the two scenarios in 2030 are reduced proportionally for wind systems that achieve a 20-year operational history between 2030 and 2050. as well as transmission. excluding financing. The WinDS model assumes that conventional generation systems. which restricts the installation of coal and nuclear plants). as described in Appendix B. are sited near load centers (except for California. Direct costs to the electricity sector for each scenario include the capital costs of wind and conventional energy equipment. the cost implications of 20 year investment decisions (fuel consumption and O&M costs) made after 2010 will extend beyond 2030 (e. Both scenarios show a significant investment—exceeding $2 trillion—in generation capacity expansion through 2030. Table A-3. which might be overly conservative. Other costs presented in this section assume a 20-year project life for wind technology installed after 2010. The capital costs include all financing costs applied to WinDS model investment selection. tend to be geographically distant from load centers. to 2050 in the case of a project built in 2030 with a 20 year life span). are much lower than those for the 20% Wind Scenario. requiring transmission lines to move electricity to the load. per Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance. Table A-3 and Figure A-18 illustrate these costs for the 20% Wind Scenario as well as the no new Wind Scenario with no additional wind capacity after 2006. The discounted capital costs. are $717 billion for the 20% Wind Scenario and $580 billion for the no Wind Scenario.Although the model calculates costs through 2030 only. O&M. The primary difference between the two scenarios is the higher capital investment for the 20% Wind Scenario. Thus. Wind resources. Direct electricity sector costs for 20% Wind Scenario and no-new-Wind Scenario (US$2006) A Wind Technology O&M Costs Wind Technology Capital Costs Present Value Present Value Direct Costs for Direct Costs for 20% Wind No New Wind Scenario* after 2006* (billion US$2006) (billion US$2006) $51 $3 Transmission Costs Fuel Costs $236 $23 $813 $0 $2 $968 Conventional Generation O&M Costs $464 $488 Conventional Generation Capital Costs $822 $905 * 7% real discount rate is used. and fuel costs. on the other hand. carbon emissions.
In effect.5/month a Per Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidance. and decommissioning) relative to a no Wind Scenario in which only nonwind technologies compete for market share. WinDS calculates the incremental cost of achieving 20% wind (considering costs of capital. The levelized cost per kilowatthour of wind produced is found by solving the following formula: ∑ wind generation * LC /(1+d)t = PV of costs in "20% Wind" case–PV of costs in no new Wind Scenario. a 7% real discount rate is used.000 kWh/year average consumption. excluding certain benefits (US$2006) Present Value Direct Costs (billion US $2006) a Average Incremental LC of Wind ($/MWh-Wind)b 43 billion $8. The time period of analysis is 2007–2030. or reducing water consumption. and the difference between the present values of the two cost streams is the total cost difference. Incremental direct cost of achieving 20% wind. c Assumes 11. but the model does not explicitly model system reliability conditions and resulting transmission upgrades.6/MWh Average Incremental Impact on Average Levelized Household Rate Impact Customer ($/MWh-Total) ($/month)c $0. The WinDS model estimates construction of a portion of a duplicate transmission line to maintain system reliability while expanding transmission capacity.6/MWh $0. transmission and integration. focusing on direct electricity sector costs and ignoring the benefits of wind generation in reducing carbon emissions. but may not reflect real siting issues that the coal and nuclear industries face today. Table A-4. WinDS modeling is used through 2030 and extrapolations b of fuel usage and O&M requirements are used for 2030–2050. Direct electricity sector costs for 20% Wind Scenario and no-new-Wind Scenario assumption for modeling purposes.Figure A-18. A Table A-4 summarizes the key findings of this analysis. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 163 . All costs are shown in US$2006. O&M.
incorporated into products and crops. need not be overwhelming. and raising average residential monthly electricity bills by just $0.15 The direct incremental cost of 20% wind is estimated to be $43 billion in net present value terms. Once-through cooling: Water from a lake.1 Water Consumption Savings In the energy sector. Water consumption: Water is withdrawn from a source but not directly returned to the source because it is evaporated. transpired. increasing electricity rates by only $0. Feeley et al. a river. 2005): z z z A Recirculating steam plant cooling: Water is reused to cool steam in a closed loop system using a cooling tower or cooling pond. Water savings from deploying large amounts of wind-generated electricity are calculated as the difference in water consumption between the two scenarios. no water consumption or very 15 These costs reflect the model inputs and could vary significantly with different fossil fuel price assumptions. Because WinDS considers not just bus-bar energy costs. or additional breakthroughs in renewable technologies. the most important of which are: z EIA Form 767 for 2002: This database includes water consumption rates for each steam power plant.6/MWh on average over the 2007–2050 analysis period.6/MWh. Water consumption rates were developed from several data sources.. Dry cooling: Air cools steam. but it is also used in boilers and in air pollution reduction processes. or consumed by people or livestock. carbon taxes or caps. water is used primarily for cooling in steam plants. 164 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . the analysis presented here suggests that the potential direct costs of achieving 20% wind. Several technologies are used to condense steam (EPRI 2002.5. using far less water than the first two wet cooling technologies.The result of this analysis suggests rather modest incremental electricity sector costs. including the steam portion of combined cycle plants. relative to meeting load with conventional technologies. it can be the cooling technology of choice where water supplies are limited. but also transmission costs and the cost of integrating wind's variable output pattern into electricity grids. or the ocean is used to condense steam and the water is returned to its source but at a higher temperature. These calculations were made on a yearly basis for the no new Wind Scenario and the 20% Wind Scenario.g. Although dry cooling is not widely used. In this analysis. Because these data often contain unrealistic values for water consumption (e. Two types of water use are generally considered: z z Water withdrawal: Water is removed from the ground or diverted from a surface source for use. The average incremental LC imposed by each megawatt-hour of wind is estimated at $8. water consumption projections were made by applying water consumption rates (gallons per megawatt-hour generated) to projected megawatthours of generation for each type of power plant.5/MWh over that same time period. A.
Although once-through cooling plants withdraw more water per megawatt-hour than recirculating plants. Department of Energy Environmental Assessment for the Installation and Operation of Combustion Turbine Generators at Los Alamos National Laboratory (December 2002) estimated that water use by planned combustions turbines would be 0 (p. 2003). Estimated consumption rates range from 0 to about 100 gall/MWh. Therefore. Table A-5 illustrates water consumption rates used in the analysis. No systematic regional variations in water consumption for coal-fired steam plants were found.S. assuming combustion turbine water consumption is 0 gal/MWh and 100 gal/MWh and found that the difference in total water savings in any year was only 0. Table A-5.3% or less. We analyzed total water savings. 17). only national average water consumption rates were used. A Clean Air Task Force/Western Resource Advocates study: This report supplements the EPRI estimates with other sources of data (Baum et al. and the number of realistic observations for the other technologies was too small to permit a useful geographic disaggregation. Figure A-19 shows annual water savings resulting from the deployment of wind resources. observations with extremely high and low values have been removed before computing average consumption rates for each type of power plant (EIA 2002). z z EPRI's water and sustainability study: This report contains typical water consumption values for steam and combined cycle power plants (EPRI 2002). Water consumption rates for power plants Generation Type Coal-Fired Steam Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Nuclear Oil.or Gas-Fired Steam Combustion Turbine Wind Water Consumption Rate: Gallons per MWh 541 180 609 662 0-100 0 A Source (see list of references for full citation) EIA Form 767 for 2002 EPRI. For example. Therefore. Because of the quality and availability of data from these sources. the mix of power plant cooling types (once through and recirculating) was assumed to stay the same over the study period. the authors have assumed in this study that existing and new power plants have the same water consumption rates. the U. water savings are not sensitive to assumptions about water consumption rates for combustion turbines.large amounts of water consumption per megawatt-hour). Clean Air Task Force & Western Resource Advocates EIA Form 767 for 2002 EIA Form 767 for 2002 See note below Clean Air Task Force & Western Resource Advocates Note: Data on water consumption rates for combustion turbines are sparse. A California Energy Commission study (2005) indicates that water consumption for combustion turbines is less than 100 gal/MWh. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 165 .
New York. Rhode Island. 41% will be in the Midwest/Great Plains. Georgia.S. Washington. Maine. 14% will be in the Northeast. Massachusetts. Delaware. Vermont Alabama. Nebraska. Arkansas. Oklahoma. Extrapolating the savings beyond the 2030 WinDS simulation period to account for the benefit of the 20-year investment decision to install wind energy results in cumulative water consumption savings of 6 trillion gallons by 2050. California.6 States Alaska.Figure A-19. Wyoming. Arizona. New Mexico. Minnesota. Iowa. Texas. approximately 51 trillion gallons of water will be consumed for electricity production from 2007 to 2030. 47 trillion gallons of water will be consumed. This is a saving of 4 trillion gallons. New Jersey. Ohio. New Hampshire. Tennessee. Other benefits associated with wind energy include an improved environment and better health resulting from reduced particulate or other chemical emissions such as 166 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Montana. Colorado. South Carolina. and operational sectors of the wind industry. states by region Region West Midwest/Great Plains Northeast Southeast A. Wisconsin Connecticut. Utah Illinois. If wind energy deployment gradually increases to 20% of the nation's electricity over the same time period. North Carolina. Kansas. Nevada. however. A Table A-6. if the current conventional generation mix is expanded to meet electricity needs. Michigan. Oregon. Based on the authors' estimates. 29% will be in the West. an 8% reduction in water consumption during that time. Kentucky. Missouri. Pennsylvania. Indiana. North Dakota. Florida. and 16% will be in the Southeast (see Table A-6). Mississippi. Louisiana. construction. West Virginia Other Effects Appendix C describes the jobs and economic impacts directly associated with the manufacturing. Idaho. Of the 4 trillion gallons of water saved nationally. Maryland. Annual water consumption savings due to deployment of wind energy Displacing large amounts of fossil-fueled power generation with wind energy reduces water consumption. U. Hawaii. South Dakota. Virginia.
and market benefits including diversification of the electricity sector. and others." Renewable Energy World 6(2). Short. 2003. Bolinger. K.us/publications/reports/The_Last_Straw.7 References & Suggested Further Reading Awerbuch.pdf. Black & Veatch Corporation. J. 2007. 2006. Wang. NNSA (National Nuclear Security Administration). Bolinger. Environmental Assessment for the Installation and Operation of Combustion Turbine Generators at Los Alamos National Laboratory. CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab). S. Denholm. Awerbuch. M.catf. Page 43 in A Preliminary Environmental Profile of California's Imported Electricity. DOE/EA-1430.ca. A. NNSA. http://www. Balancing Cost and Risk: The Treatment of Renewable Energy in Western Utility Resource Plans. 2003. Berry. LBNL-62056. D. Baum. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 167 .gov/analysis/winds/pdfs/winds_data.. R. and Los Alamos Site Office.S. Sacramento: CEC. 2002.gov/2005_energypolicy/documents/2005-06 27+28_workshop/presentations/2005-06 27_CECSTAFF+ASPEN_PRESENTATION.nrel. and Los Alamos Site Office (US). Wiser. Tatsutani. Version AEO 2006 (1). 1993. Wiser. Berkeley. 2006. CEC-700-2005 017. Golden. Los Alamos. LaFlash. A Bolinger. 2005. NM: DOE. Miller. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).acid rain or mercury.. Gupta.B. and M. and W. and C." The Electricity Journal 18(6): 11–24.. have not been quantified in this study. http://www. CO and Boston. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices. LBNL-58450. R. Bokenkamp.PDF Cavanagh.energy. Decker. Lashof. Documentation of WinDS Base Case. CEC (California Energy Commission). A. Putnam. M. Golove. H. and R. V. Overland. J. Singh. "Hedging Carbon Risk: Protecting Customers and Shareholders from the Financial Risk Associated with Carbon Dioxide Emissions. D. MA: The Land and Water Fund of the Rockies and Clean Air Task Force. "The Surprising Role of Risk in Utility Integrated Resource Planning. DOE (U. 2005. CA: Berkeley Lab." The Electricity Journal 6(3): 20–33.. E. S. September. Department of Energy). Wind Supply Curves. Wiser. M. 6(2): 64–75. Nielsen. and D.pdf." Energy Policy 34(6): 706–720. These benefits.. and W. The Last Straw: Water Use by Power Plants in the Arid West. and R. "Utilities and CO2 Emissions: Who Bears the Risks of Future Regulation?" The Electricity Journal.. B. P. Berkeley. M. March-April 2003. 2006. Chaisson. Boulder. "Accounting for Fuel Price Risk When Comparing Renewable to Gas-Fired Generation: The Role of Forward Natural Gas Prices. 2005. 1993. http://www. "Determining the Real Cost: Why Renewable Power is More Cost-Competitive than Previously Believed... KS: Black & Veatch.
Clair.S. White. B. Linsey. Department of Energy/Office of Fossil Energy's Power Plant Water Management R&D Program. 2002. http://environment. 2005. CA: Berkeley Lab. http://www. T. L. Washington. Hausman. Report No. L. Arlington. http://www. Prepared by Bevilacqua-Knight.energy. E. and B. Climate Change and Power: Carbon Dioxide Emissions Costs and Electricity Resource Planning. eetd. LBNL-56756.pdf 168 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Wiser. D. 2006. Hutson. Water Consumption for Power Production – The Next Half Century.pdf. NREL/TP-320-39684. 2004. Maupin. J. Sommer. T. Integrating Renewable Energy Technologies in the Electric Supply Industry: A Risk Management Approach.gov/cneaf/electricity/forms/eia767/eia767. III. K. CT: Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies. http://www.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/index. R. Washington.usgs. Cambridge.doe. St. 2004. Feeley. CO: U.. Greenhouse & Statehouse: The Evolving State Government Role in Climate Change. Department of Energy (DOE). A. 2006. Johnston.org/docUploads/states_greenhouse. Denver. Palo Alto. Virginia: Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Report 1006786.html. Wiser.eia. http://www. and D. http://pubs. Biewald. and J. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/reports/56403. Blair. M.gov/circ/2004/circ1268/.gov/ba/pdfs/39684_00. Bolinger.pewclimate. EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute). Schedule 6. and M. 2002. Environmental Exposures in the US Electric Utility Industry. Hoffman. Rabe. R. Geological Survey. NREL/TP-500 40482.pdf. Schlissel. National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). Circular 1268.. and M.pdf. NREL/SR-520-23089. Inc.yale. Easing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural Gas Prices through Increased Deployment of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. and M.lbl. Golden. Colorado: NREL. Green. DC: U. Hoff. A Steam-Electric Plant Operation and Design Report. New Haven.eere. Roschelle. 2005.pdf EIA (Energy Information Administration). Lumia. R. Water and Sustainability (Volume 3): U. A.. Hand. http://www.S. High Wind Penetration Impact on U.S.pdf. A. 2002. Berkeley. A Laxson. 2007. Washington. http://www1. Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000. Projected Benefits of Federal Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs-FY2007 Budget Request. Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). MA: Synapse Energy Economics.. J. An Overview of Alternative Fossil Fuel Price and Carbon Regulation Scenarios. DOE/EIA-0383. CO: NREL. Repetto.S. DC: EIA. DC: EIA. 1997. Woolf. Barber.gov/Science Articles/Archive/sabl/2005/February/assets/Natural-Gas. LBNL-56403. Wind Manufacturing Capacity and Critical Resources. T. 2006... Kenny. Berkeley. Golden. Bolinger.E. Cooling System Information.EIA (Energy Information Administration). and N. M. Henderson. 2003.gov/docs/fy07osti/40482. Murphy. CO: NREL. S. NREL. Form EIA 767. B. N. Golden.nrel. Inc. Carney.edu/doc/969/environmental_exposures_in_the_us_el ectric/.eia. D. J.doe. CA: EPRI. CA: Berkeley Lab.
169 .Appendix B. which include capital costs and cumulative discounted operating costs over a fixed evaluation period. see Denholm and Short 2006). Assumptions Used for Wind Deployment System Model To define the 20% Wind Scenario. Table B-1 summarizes the financial values used to produce net capital and operating costs. This appendix outlines the assumptions used in constructing the 20% Wind Scenario. These assumptions are unchanged from the WinDS base case (Denholm and Short 2006) and are designed to correspond to assumptions made by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030 (shortened in this appendix to AEO 2007 or simply AEO. a number of modifications were made to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Wind Deployment System (WinDS) base case assumptions (which are set forth in the WinDS documentation.1 Financial Parameters WinDS optimizes the electric power system "build" based on projected life-cycle costs. Baseline financial assumptions Name Inflation Rate Real Discount Rate Marginal Income Tax Rate Evaluation Period Depreciation Schedule Conventional Wind Nominal Interest Rate during Construction Dollar Year Value 3% 8. The "overnight" capital costs supplied as inputs to the model are adjusted to reflect the actual total cost of construction. and financing mechanisms. The financial assumptions and the region definitions are unchanged from the WinDS base case. These changes include updating wind resource maps. B. accounting for seasonal and diurnal capacity factor (CF) variations. Black & Veatch developed the wind and conventional generation technology cost and performance projections in consultation with American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) industry experts.5% 40% 20 Years 15 Year 5 Year 10% 2004 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version Notes and Source Based on recent historical inflation rates Equivalent to weighted cost of capital. The assumptions about the large regional planning and operation structure of the transmission system were developed through collaboration with the experts who contributed to Chapter 4. B Table B-1. Based on EIA assumptions (EIA 2006) Combined federal/state corporate income tax rates Base Case Assumption MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery Schedule) MACRS (Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery Schedule) Base Case Assumption All costs are expressed in year 2004 dollars. interest during construction. and including offshore wind resources from South Carolina to Texas. EIA 2007a). including tax effects.
Interconnect regions.1 WinDS Regions Four types of regions are included in the WinDS model (see Figure B-1): z z z z Interconnect regions: There are three major interconnects in the United States (all are electrically isolated): the Eastern Interconnect. WinDS regions B 16 For more information on NERC. which are listed in Table B-2. NERC regions.com/regional/.2 Power System Characteristics B. Figure B-1. Wind resource regions: There are 358 wind resource regions in WinDS. National Electric Reliability Council (NERC)16 subregions: WinDS uses 13 NERC subregions. see http://www. and the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) Interconnect.B. Western Interconnect.2.nerc. 170 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Balancing areas: WinDS uses 136 balancing areas. and balancing areas are defined and operated by various regulatory agencies.
B Wind resource regions were created specifically for the WinDS model.g. NERC regions were redefined. Figure B-2 illustrates all wind regions and balancing areas in the United States.. Similarly. In January 2006. WinDS will continue to use pre-2006 definitions until the EIA modifies its data. NERC regions used in WinDS NERC Region/ Subregion Abbreviation Region Name 1 ECAR 2 ERCOT 3 MAAC Mid-Atlantic Area Council 4 MAIN Mid-America Interconnected Network 5 MAPP Mid-Continent Area Power Pool 6 NY New York 7 NE New England 8 FRCC Florida Reliability Coordinating Council 9 SERC Southeast Reliability Council 10 SPP Southwest Power Pool 11 NWP Northwest 12 RA 13 CNV East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement Electric Reliability Council of Texas Rocky Mountain Area California/Nevada Note: NERC regions in WinDS are based on the pre-2006 regional definitions defined by the EIA (2000). the EIA has not incorporated these changes through publication of AEO 2007. some of the recent changes to balancing area boundaries (now referred to as balancing authorities) are not yet reflected in WinDS (e. therefore. These regions were selected using the following rules and criteria: z z z z z Incorporate buildup from counties (so the electricity load can be determined for each wind supply/demand region based on county population) Avoid crossing state boundaries (so that state-level policies can be modeled) Conform to balancing areas as much as possible (to better capture the competition between wind and other generators) Separate major windy areas from load centers (so that the distance from a wind resource to a load center can be well approximated) Conform to NERC region/subregion boundaries (so that the results are appropriate for use by integrating models that use the NERC regions and subregions). 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 171 . however. the formation of the Texas Regional Transmission Organization).Table B-2.
Figure B-2. For example. Energy is met for each balancing area in each of 16 time slices. 172 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . electricity demand is modeled at the NERC region level and wind-generator performance is modeled at the wind-resource region level.2. and within each year modeled by WinDS. B. WinDS meets the energy and power requirements for each of 136 balancing areas. Wind region and Balancing Areas in WinDS base case B Several components of the WinDS model necessitate using four levels of geographic resolution. Table B-3 defines these time slices.2 Electric System Loads Loads are defined by region and by time.
152 Summer H2 462 Summer Weekends. 10:00 p. 6:00 p. to 5:00 p. The electricity load in 2000 for each balancing area and time slice is derived from an RDI/Platts database (Platts Energy Market Data. to 10:00 p. to 1:00 p.m. 6:00 p.platts. H15 260 Spring Weekdays. to 5:00 p. H8 225 Fall Weekdays. 7:00 a. to 5:00 p.m.496 Winter H10 595 Winter Weekends. WinDS demand time-slice definitions Slice Name Season Time Period H1 Number of Hours Per Year 1.m.m. 2:00 p.m.m. 2:00 p. H7 180 Fall Weekdays. 6:00 p.m.m.m. weekdays Weekdays. 2:00 p. plus 11:00 p. As a reference.m. to 6:00 a.m.144 Spring H14 455 Spring Weekends.m.m. to 6:00 a. to 10:00 p. to 6:00 a.com/Analytic%20Solutions/BaseCase/). the actual U.m.m. 7:00 a. to 6:00 a. H13 1. H4 330 Summer Weekdays.Table B-3.m. to 1:00 p. H11 340 Winter Weekdays. plus 11:00 p. weekdays Weekdays.m. see http://www. plus 11:00 p.m. 2:00 p.S.m. to 1:00 p. to 10:00 p. H5 792 Fall H6 315 Fall Weekends. 6:00 p. weekdays Weekdays.m. The B Figure B-3. showing the 16 load time slices. plus 11:00 p.m. Figure B-3 illustrates the WinDS load duration curve (LDC) for the entire United States for the base year.m.m. to 1:00 p.m.m.m. H16 325 Spring Weekdays.m. H12 425 Winter Weekdays.m. H3 264 Summer Weekdays.m. 7:00 a. to 5:00 p.m. coincident LDC— also derived from the Platts database—is depicted in the figure as well. weekdays Weekdays. 7:00 a. H9 1.m. National load duration curve for base year in WinDS 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 173 .m.
010 1. however.011 1. the actual capacity value is a minority fraction of the nameplate capacity.022 1.4 Capacity Requirements In each balancing area. for every NERC and interconnect region.010 1. plus a peak reserve margin. Although these capacity requirements are implemented regionally.009 1.013 1. In the case of wind power. B.4. The LDC does not include the "super peak.3 Growth Rate Load growth is defined at the NERC region level.017 WinDS assumes that the growth rate in each time slice is also constant (i.. WinDS requires sufficient capacity to meet the peak instantaneous demand throughout the course of the year. give a general idea of the WinDS energy requirement.e. although the generator must have the appropriate capacity value. as the energy requirement is met in each balancing area.006 1. These peak requirements are discussed in Section B.010 1.016 1. This curve does. The reserve margin requirement can be met by any generator type. In addition. because the load in each time slice is the average load over the hours included in that time slice.015 1." which occurs in most systems for a few hours per year.2.6 discusses the treatment of resource variability within the model. Section B.2. The instantaneous annual peak load is higher than the load in each of the 16 time slices. Table B-5 illustrates their national impact. WinDS requires that firm capacity be available to meet the demand in each time slice (see the national example of time-slice demand in Figure B-3). 174 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . B. the load shape remains the same over time). Table B-4 contains the 2000 load and annual growth rates for each NERC region Table B-4.2.022 1. Loads in all balancing areas within each NERC region are assumed to grow at the same rate to 2050. Base load and load growth in the WinDS scenario NERC Region/SubRegion 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Source: EIA (2007b) B Abbreviation 2000 Load TWh/year Annual Load Growth ECAR ERCOT MAAC MAIN MAPP NY NE FL SERC SPP NWP RA CNV 370 205 197 184 110 109 96 141 589 132 176 97 202 1.aggregated data for the United States that are shown in Figure B-3 are not used directly in WinDS.017 1.
15 0. Wind speed measured at 50 m above ground level.0 8.3.8 >8. and that the load shape stays constant from one period to the next.4–7.14 0.18 0.249 1. Table B-7.8 Notes: W/m2 = watts per square meter. and maintained thereafter.531 1.5–8.15 0.4 Table B-6 gives the peak reserve margin for each region.6 Annual peak instantaneous load 702 1.730 1.12 0.12 0.0–7.12 0.12 0.1 Wind Resource Definition Table B-7 defines wind power classes. m/s = meters per second.08 0. National capacity requirements in the WinDS base case Total (GW) Capacity Requirement Annual Growth Rate % 2000 2050 Average load in the summer peak time slice 571 1. W/m2 300–400 400–500 500–600 600–800 >800 Speed m/s 6. Classes of wind power density Wind Power Class 3 4 5 6 7 Wind Power Density. Peak reserve margin NERC Region Abbreviation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 ECAR ERCOT MAAC MAIN MAPP NY NE FL SERC SPP NWP RA CNV 2010 Required Reserve Margin 0.0 7. Source: Elliott and Schwartz (1993) 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 175 .0–8.Table B-5.13 B Source: PA Consulting Group (2004) B.13 0.6 Peak capacity value (not nameplate) to meet reserve margin 875 1.3 Wind B.15 0. It is assumed that energy growth and peak demand grow at the same rate. Reserve margin is ramped from its initial value in 2000 to the 2010 requirement. Table B-6.15 0.5 7.
capacity factor. Under the WPA initiative. These are the most recent state wind maps available from the Wind Powering America (WPA. The WinDS base case (Denholm and Short 2006) used only two data sources. New York). Individual state programs have updated other (non-WPA) maps. however.2 Wind Resource Data The basic wind resource input for the WinDS model is the amount of available windy land area (in square kilometers [km2]) by wind power class (Class 3 and higher). Using the recent maps offers an advantage in that modern mapping techniques and recent measurement data are incorporated into the mapping process. The difference in techniques leads to a "patchwork quilt" pattern in some regions where notable resource discontinuities at state borders result from the different mapping techniques. validated these 176 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . resulting in a finer horizontal resolution (1 km or smaller size grid cells) of the wind resource. North Dakota. the WPA maps validated by NREL and the Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States (PNL 1987). The 50-m wind power classes for individual grid cells on the WPA maps were used to determine available windy land for the WinDS model. The disadvantage is that not all updated maps were created using the same technique. The validation results were used to modify the preliminary map and to create a final wind map. however. An important difference between the NREL and AWST maps is that the NREL mapping technique assumed low surface roughness (equivalent to short grasslands). B Most state maps were completed with direct support from WPA and cost-sharing from individual states and regional partners. Albany. For this project. special data and knowledge of wind resources in each state.gov/windandhydro/windpoweringamerica/) initiative and individual state programs. and Table B-9 presents the same information for offshore wind.Wind power density and speed are not explicitly calculated in WinDS. The preliminary resource map was produced by AWS Truewind (AWST.eere. Increases in surface roughness generally cause decreases in the 50-m wind resource. turbine cost. The maps depict estimates of the wind resource at 50 m above the ground. the WinDS model uses recent wind maps from individual state programs where available (instead of maps from the 1987 PNL atlas) and new WPA state maps. state wind resource maps were produced as described here. and so forth. The amount of available windy land is derived from state wind resource maps and modified for environmental and land use exclusions (as outlined in Tables B-8 and B-9). B. which were created using a variety of mapping techniques. or both.3. which are discussed in the subsections that follow. NREL mapped three states—Illinois. For this report. NREL has not. see http://www. Table B-8 summarizes the state sources and land use exclusions for the land-based wind resource data used in WinDS.energy. Different classes of wind power are identified by resource level. AWST used digital land cover data sets for surface roughness values. NREL validated this map in cooperation with private consultants who had access to proprietary data. several 50-m state maps were adjusted to produce more interstate compatibility. and South Dakota—before AWST became involved. so the NREL maps might overestimate the wind resource in areas that do not have low surface roughness.
PNL Georgia 2006. N/AWST** data was generated by AWS TrueWind. Data used is preliminary. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 177 . OTH Kansas 2004. ID. where GIS data is available. N/AWST 2005. OTH 1987. national battlefield. wilderness study area. OTH Kentucky 1987. urban. N/AWST 2000 NREL State a Ohio a Oklahoma Oregon a Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming Data Source* 2004. recreation area. NREL data was generated with the WRAMS model. national monument. 3 and 4 wind power class estimates were adjusted upwards by 1/2 power class to better represent the likely wind resource at wind turbine height. wildlife refuge. ESRI airports and airfields (2003) Ridge-crest areas defined using a terrain definition script. PNL Louisiana 1987. and WY) and 200 m everywhere else. Data/Comments: USGS Federal and Indian Lands shapefile. N/AWST 2003. Wind Resource Onshore Exclusions (last revised Jan 2004) Criteria for Defining Available Windy Land (numbered in the order they are applied): Environmental Criteria 2) 100% exclusion of National Park Service and Fish and Wildlife Service managed lands 3) 100% exclusion of federal lands designated as park. it is just excluded at the 50% level one time. 1993. 2004 8) 50% exclusion of remaining USDA Forest Service (FS) lands (incl. AWST 2000 NREL 1987. N/AWST 2005. NREL a Indiana 2004. Resolution is 1 km. Merged datasets and buffer 3 km Focalsum function of class 3+ areas (not applied to 1987 PNL resource data) ***50% exclusions are not cumulative. In those cases. N/AWST 2002. Jan 2005 4) 100% exclusion of state and private lands equivalent to criteria 2 and 3. OTH 2002. wilderness. version 2. PNL 2004. wildlife area. N/AWST 2002. NREL. each cell has a terrain exposure percent (5% for ridgecrest to 90% for plains) to define base resource area in each cell. resolution. If an area is non-ridgecrest forest on FS land. National Grasslands)*** USGS Federal and Indian Lands shapefile. PNL State Maine Maryland Massachusetts a Michigan Minnesota Mississippi a Missouri Montana a Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico a New York North Carolina North Dakota Data Source* 2002. N/AWST 2003. OTH data from other sources. N/AWST 2003. PNL 2004. wetland and water areas. where GIS data is available*** USGS Federal and Indian Lands shapefile. from Conservation Biology Institute Protected Lands database. Jan 2005 9) 50% exclusion of remaining Dept. a In these states. Jan 2005 USGS North America Land Use Land Cover (LULC). N/AWST 2003. assumptions were made to adjust the data to 50 m power density. of Defense lands*** 10) 50% exclusion of state forest land. N/AWST * YrSource Yr = Year produced (1987 to present). State/GAP land stewardship data management status 1. N/AWST 2004. N/AWST 2002. some datasets were not available as 50 m power density. N/AWST** California 2003. and does not account for surface roughness. Ridgecrest areas have 10% of the area assigned to the next higher power class. B USGS Federal and Indian Lands shapefile. N/AWST 2006. OTH/2000. 11) 50% exclusion of non-ridgecrest forest*** Other Criteria 1) Exclude areas of slope > 20% 6) 100% exclude 3 km surrounding criteria 2-5 (except water) 2 7) Exclude resource areas that do not meet a density of 5 km of 2 class 3 or better resource within the surrounding 100 km area. N/AWST Florida 1987. NREL 2003. However. wild and scenic river or inventoried roadless area. N/AWST Connecticut 2002. OTH 2002. Derived from elevation data used in the wind resource model. PNL Alabama Arkansas 2006. N/AWST Illinois 2001. Jan 2005 State/GAP land stewardship data management status 2. N/AWST 2003. 2004 Land Use Criteria 5) 100% exclusion of airfields. N/AWST 2003. The methods. the class 2. N/AWST 2003. the data was taken at face value. N/AWST Delaware 2003. N/AWST 2002. from Conservation Biology Institute Protected Lands database. AWST Idaho 2002. N/AWST 2002. For Nebraska. N/AWST 2002. N/AWST data was generated by AWS TrueWind and validated by NREL.0. AWST 2003. N/AWST Iowa 1997. MT. and will be validated by NREL. Source = PNL. overlaid with USGS LULC data screened for the forest categories. national conservation area. N/AWST (NREL with AWS TrueWind). Data sources for land-based wind resource and environmental exclusions Onshore Wind Resource Data Used in WinDS (10/23/2006) Resource Data (50 m height): State Data Source* Arizona 2003. N/AWST Colorado 2003. only the portion of the state east of 102 degrees longitude was adjusted. and assumptions vary. AWST (AWS TrueWind alone not validated by NREL) or OTH (data from other sources) PNL data resolution is 1/4 degree of latitude by 1/3 degree of longitude. N/AWST 2003. These results have not been validated by NREL For most states. Texas includes the Texas mesas study area updated by NREL using WRAMS. N/AWST 2005. These data consider surface roughness in their estimates. N/AWST 2002. N/AWST 1987. Resolution is 400 m for the northwest states (WA.Table B-8. OR.
Mississippi. NREL2 Indiana 2006. NREL3: No validated resource estimates existed to provide a baseline. NREL1 2006. In most cases. Data sources for the offshore wind resource and environmental exclusions Offshore Wind Resource Data Used in WinDS (10/23/2006) Resource Data (50 m height): State Data Source* Alabama 2006. NREL1 2003. NREL1 2006. and takes air density into consideration. Florida. NREL2 2002. NREL3 2002. This methodology calculates a combination of wind speed at the grid cells (direct or interpolated). B Updated wind resource maps were unavailable for six southeastern states— Alabama. Wind Resource Offshore Exclusions No exclusions were applied to the offshore resource data. Because the mesas are relatively small terrain features. NREL1 Florida 2006. Louisiana. As a result. NREL meteorologists generated an initial best estimate of resource distribution to be used in the model. NREL2 2006. For two states (Minnesota and Wisconsin) where the 50-m power classes for individual grid cells were unavailable. leading to a realistic representation of the mesas in the Texas map used for the WinDS model. NREL2 * YrSource Yr = Year produced (2002 to present). Next. NREL1 2006. NREL3 2003. NREL3 2006. a methodology that applies basic assumptions to calculate wind power classes for each grid cell was used. NREL2 Louisiana 2006. The horizontal resolution of the atlas maps is quite a bit larger (approximately 25-km grid cells) than that of the updated state maps. the power class values for the mesas were increased based on anemometer measurements. NREL2 2006. environmental and land use exclusions were applied to arrive at the final windy land area totals. extrapolates to adjust the wind speeds from map height(s) to 50 m.Table B-9. NREL1 2002. which feature 1-km or smaller grid cells. The maps for eight states—Oklahoma. preliminary runs which extended further from shore. NREL2 2002. As mentioned previously. The underlying 50-m wind power class data from the maps contained in the 1987 atlas (PNL 1987) were used to calculate windy land area for these states. NREL1 2006. NREL1 2003. In adjusting the maps. the Texas map underestimates the power class on the mesas where considerable wind energy development has taken place. NREL3 California 2003. NREL1 2003. The Texas map was adjusted to include wind resources currently being developed on the mesas in western Texas. this still did not fill the modeling area of interest of 50 nm from shore. several state maps were adjusted to produce more interstate compatibility. Kentucky. NREL1 Connecticut 2002. Source = NREL with different methods enumerated below NREL1: Validated near-shore data was supplemented with offshore resource data from earlier. NREL1 Delaware 2003. NREL3 Illinois 2006. NREL3 State Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi New Hampshire New Jersey New York Data Source* 2002. 178 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . based on expert knowledge and available measured/modeled data sources. NREL2: Similar to NREL1. which do not necessarily show the 50-m wind power classes on the maps or the 50-m classes in geographic information system (GIS) format. NREL1 2006. adequately depicting the available resources on these features is difficult. plots common wind speed frequency distribution. The resource estimates were extended linearly to obtain full coverage at 50 nm with little or no change in spatial pattern. landform classifications and environmental and land use exclusions were used to calculate the available windy land for these states. but available resource data estimates and areas not covered by validated and preliminary data were evaluated by NREL meteorologist to establish a best estimate of resource distribution based on expert knowledge and available measured/modeled data sources. It is characterized by power class and depth (0-30 m and >30m) maps. and Tennessee. Consequently. NREL1 2003. NREL3 Georgia 2006. NREL1 State North Carolina Ohio Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina Texas Virginia Washington Wisconsin Data Source* 2003.
As turbine technology improves and hub heights increase. the WinDS model may select less wind energy capacity than is currently being developed in a given state. 4. WinDS does not specify significant wind energy capacity for the state. Oregon. Montana. and New York—were adjusted because their 50-m wind power class maps underestimate the potential resource at modern turbine hub heights. The diurnal and seasonal variations of the wind are portrayed as the ratio of the average wind turbine output during the time slice with the annual average wind turbine output. Nebraska (the eastern two-thirds of the state). and 4 that had 50-m power density values greater than the midpoint of the associated wind power class were adjusted to the next highest class. have hub heights as high as 80 m to 100 m. the total available land area corresponding to a particular wind resource power class was multiplied by an assumed turbine density of 5 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2). This calculation yields the total wind-generation capacity available within each WinDS region for each wind power class. The available windy land in these states was increased based on the wind power density values of individual grid cells.Missouri. 16 time slices represent four seasons and four time periods (see Table B-3). and Wyoming. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 179 . For states with AWST data. Montana. All these resource maps were based on wind power estimates at 50 m above ground level. Michigan. The available resource increase results from the high wind speed shear that is present in the affected states. Oregon. however. Pennsylvania. Similarly. the actual wind energy capacity could be significantly less than that calculated by the model. if a state's resource is overestimated. and hourly wind speed profiles by season from the coarse model grid (10 km in Washington. 200-m resolution in all other states). 3. Many states that show poor wind capability for electricity generation at the 50-m level may have significantly improved wind speeds at heights of 80 m to 100 m. B B. annual and monthly average wind speeds and power were selected from the fine map grid (400-m resolution in Washington. States with AWST data are identified in Table B-8. Ohio. As an example. Grid cells in classes 2. 1996).3 WinDS Seasonal and Diurnal Capacity Factor Calculations For each region and wind power class (classes 3 to 7). Idaho. 2 km in all other states). The patchwork quilt effect that results from the varied resource input data affects the selection of wind energy capacity in the WinDS model. If a state's resource is underestimated. wind resources could be significantly different. Idaho. and Wyoming. and 5 in the eight states. Average capacity factors are calculated for each of the 358 WinDS regions for each power class. even though Missouri is currently developing several hundred megawatts of wind energy. For each of the 358 WinDS regions. Monthly and hourly wind variations were obtained from two databases: z z AWST text supplemental database files National Commission on Energy Policy/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) global reanalysis mean values (Kalnay et al. Indiana. Today's wind turbines. The net result of these adjustments was to increase the windy land for classes 3.3.
temperature. 180 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Finally. Reanalysis data. and air density by month and hour of day (24 hours × 12 months). Reanalysis uses a dynamic data assimilation model to create worldwide data sets of wind.5-MW wind turbine as a function of air density was estimated. June–August. There are four patterns. Reanalysis wind characteristics from 120 m above ground level have been found to have the best correlation with measured wind data and wind maps. With reanalysis. data from the next lower power class are chosen. Using the AWST and NCEP/NCAR databases. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. For regions that use reanalysis. input data sources were used to populate matrices of average wind speed. wind power. each region has data from only one power class. and December–February). four times daily. though. The resulting monthly pattern is the average of the monthly values within the 3 × 3 km cell for all map points in the desired power class (plus or minus one class). A final data processing step is to populate the entire array of 358 regions × 5 power classes with results. Seasons are three-month periods (March–May. a weighted average of capacity factors from the four time slices was used to revise nighttime values into a "nights and weekends" capacity factor. the reanalysis grid point closest to the geographic center of the region was chosen. The hourly pattern is the average of hourly values for up to twenty 3 × 3 cells for each region/power class combination. the closest grid point from the coarse grid for each 3 × 3 cell was used. throughout the depth of the atmosphere. Average values of wind speed. B These data were then combined to calculate wind turbine capacity factor for each time slice. and air density were used. wind power is available only by month. the center of the offshore region was computed and the closest reanalysis grid point was used. For each time slice. This is the desired input into the WinDS model. For some offshore locations. by month and by day (four times daily). For states without AWST data and for certain offshore regions.For monthly input data. AWST data are available for most states that are not suitable for reanalysis. all five power classes are given the same array of capacity factor ratios. September– November. the power output of the General Electric International (GE) 1. If there are no available data from a lower power class. wind power. 2004). over a 46-year period of record. only one 3 × 3-km cell for each region and power class was used. one for each season. and air density was then divided into desired seasonal and diurnal time slices (see Table B-3). For reanalysis regions. This cell was chosen because it has the lowest cost based on the existing grid usage optimization that is normally done as an input to WinDS (Sabeff et al. The 24 × 12 array of wind speed. In the AWST data. and a histogram of wind speed probability as a function of wind speed and Weibull k factor was calculated. Fortunately. so the Weibull k factor was calculated only once for each season. the next higher power class is chosen. wind power. For hourly input data. This process creates a desired array of capacity factor ratios only for regions and wind power classes with data. Time-slice capacity factors were then normalized by the total annual capacity factor. and other variables on a 208-km resolution grid. All times of day use the same Weibull k for calculating capacity factor. are suitable for use only over fairly level terrain at lower elevations. resulting in values representing the ratio of power produced in the current time slice to annual average power produced. If a power class is missing.
so capacity factors were extrapolated from the linear relationships between wind classes. limited data are available for operating plants.650 1. Costs for turbines. which is then applied to each wind power class to project future performance improvements.480 1. Land-based wind technology cost and performance projections (US$2006) Wind Resource Power Class at 50 m 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 Year Installed 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 Capacity Factor (%) 32 35 36 38 38 38 36 39 41 42 43 43 40 43 44 45 46 46 44 Cost ($/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) 1. however.650 1.5 11. and legal fees. are projected to stay the same because they are not affected by technology improvements.0 4. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 181 .4 Wind Technology Cost and Performance Black & Veatch analysts developed wind technology cost and performance projections for this report in consultation with AWEA industry experts (Black and Veatch.6 4.570 1.650 1. including insurance. profit.5 11.530 1.650 11. Fixed O&M costs.4 7.530 1.0 4.5 11.480 1. and interconnection fees are included.5 11.650 1.0 5. royalties.0 B 17 Capacity factors for 2000 and 2005 fit to actual data. and other costs that are expected to be stable.610 1. forthcoming 2008).4 7.650 1. For the higher wind power classes (6 and 7).5 4. Additional costs reflecting terrain slope and regional population density are described later in this subsection.610 1.B.5 11. Table B-10 lists cost and performance projections for land-based wind systems (Black and Veatch.570 1.5 4.6 4. Other variable O&M expenses are tied to labor rates.5 11. property taxes. towers. Capital costs are based on an average installed capital cost of $1.6 4.5 4. foundations.5 11.5 Variable O&M ($/MWh) 7.5 11.17 Variable and fixed operations and maintenance (O&M) costs represent an average of recent project costs according to Black & Veatch's experience.5 11.5 5.570 1.5 11.650 1. site maintenance.4 7. These costs are expected to decline as turbine reliability improves and the scale of wind turbines increases. which reduces to $1. forthcoming 2008).650/kW in 2006 after adjusting for inflation and removing the construction financing charge.530 1. Table B-10.5 11.610 1.5 11.5 5. Black & Veatch used historical capacity factor data to create a logarithmic best-fit line. Capital costs are projected to decrease by 10% in the future as a result of technology development.0 5.5 5.480 1.5 11.5 11.5 11.0 5.3.5 11. installation.775 per kilowatt (kW) in 2007.5 11.5 11.0 4. Approximately 50% of variable O&M cost is the turbine warranty.
530 1.100 2. O&M costs are assumed to be three times those of land-based turbines (Musial and Butterfield 2004) with a learning rate commensurate to that projected by the U.5% as a result of technology development and a maturing market.5 11.650 1.300 2.150 2.S.570 1.200 2.650 1.0 5.5 11.5 11. Capital costs are assumed to decline 12.5 11. NREL 2006).400 2.5 4.5 4.400 2. (2007) Table B-11 lists cost and performance projections prepared by Black & Veatch for shallow offshore wind technology (in water shallower than 30 m).610 1.6 4. Shallow offshore wind technology cost and performance projections (US$2006) Wind Resource Power Class at 50 m 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 182 Year Installed Capacity Factor (%) Capital Cost ($/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) Variable O&M ($/MWh) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 34 37 38 39 40 40 38 41 43 44 45 45 42 45 46 47 2.5 11.300 2.610 1.130 2.130 2. Capital costs for 2005 were based on publicly available cost data for European offshore wind farms.150 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 21 18 16 14 13 11 21 18 16 14 13 11 21 18 16 14 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .6 4. By 2030 this adjustment factor is reduced to 5% as land-based development allows larger turbines to be used in turbulent environments.5 11.5 11.100 2.5 5.5 Variable O&M ($/MWh) 5.150 2.300 2. forthcoming 2008 et al. Department of Energy (DOE.5 11.200 2.0 4. B Table B-11.Wind Resource Power Class at 50 m 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 Year Installed 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Capacity Factor (%) 46 47 48 49 49 47 50 51 52 52 53 Cost ($/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) 1.5 11.650 1.570 1. which is based on the logarithmic best-fit lines generated for land-based turbines.400 2.480 11.530 1.480 1. The capacity factor projection.0 4.200 2. we increased 15% to account for larger rotor diameters and reduced wind turbulence over the ocean.5 11.4 Note: MWh = megawatt-hour Source: Black and Veatch.4 7.5 5.
100 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 21 18 16 14 13 11 21 18 16 14 13 11 Source: Black and Veatch. has been included in EIA's data reports (2007). population density. and rapid growth were applied to the capital cost. Applying a multiplier related to population density within each of the 358 WinDS regions results in regional variations similar to that observed in data.200 2. forthcoming 2008.130 2. Costs associated with installation represent 25% of the capital cost. In particular.130 2. if the demand for new wind capacity significantly exceeds that supplied in earlier years. Although financing has not been treated explicitly.300 2.300 2.4 Conventional Generation U.150 2. if new wind installations are more than 20% greater than those of the preceding year. including financing.5%. there is a 1% increase in capital cost for each 1% growth above 20% per year (EIA 2004). conventional energy generation included in the WinDS model.400 2. it is assumed to be captured by the weighted cost of capital (real discount rate) of 8. and most likely to be built in the United States. Wiser and Bolinger (2007) present regional variations in installed capital cost for projects constructed in 2006. A slope penalty that increases one-fourth of the capital cost by 2. interest during construction.100 2. A number of adjustments.200 2.Wind Resource Power Class at 50 m 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 Year Installed Capacity Factor (%) Capital Cost ($/kW) Fixed O&M ($/kW-yr) Variable O&M ($/MWh) 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 48 48 46 48 50 51 51 51 50 52 54 55 55 55 2.S.100 2. B.5% per degree of terrain slope was used to represent expected costs associated with installations on mesas or ridge crests. terrain slope. Slope and population density penalties have been applied to the capital cost listed in Tables B-10 and B-11 within the model to represent topographical and regional variations across the United States.400 2. Table B-12 illustrates expected construction time and schedules for conventional energy technologies.150 2. An additional 20% must be applied to the base capital cost in New England to reflect observed capital cost variations.130 2. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 183 . B WinDS does assume that the price paid per unit of wind capacity can rise above the capital costs of Tables B-10 and B-11 as well as the multiplier factors.
8 0.1 0.2 0.1 - - - 35.2877 30 Yes No-Scrubbers may be added to meet SO2 constraints.0% 5.0% 0 0 0 0 45 0.5 0.2877 30 6 0.321926 30 - - - - - - 5.8% 1.1 0 33.77131 60 No-see above 6 0.77131 60 - - - - - - 7.2877 50 6 0.2 0.57 0.6E-06 55.0006 0.1 - - - 5.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2355 0.4% 0.Table B-12.026 0.2 0.9% 9.77131 60 Yes No -Assumes Gas-CT or GasCC will be built instead.2 0.8% 0.0% 0. 4 0.1 - - - 10.4 0.0% 0 0 0 0 30 Biomass (as Thermal Steam Generator) Concentrating Solar Power with Storage Municipal Solid Waste / Landfill Gas B-184 Yes No 3 NA 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .0% 5.3 0.1 7.157 0.0% 0 0 0 0 100 NOx Hg CO2 Yes 3 0. Existing plants may also switch to low-sulfur coal. General assumptions for conventional generation technologies Technology Modeled Conventional Hydropower Hydraulic Turbine Natural Gas Combustion Turbine Combined Cycle Natural Gas Turbine Conventional Pulverized Coal Steam Plant (No SO2 Scrubber) Conventional Pulverized Coal Steam Plant (With SO2 scrubber) Advanced Supercritical Coal Steam Plant (with SO2 and Nox Controls) Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle Turbine Oil/Gas Steam Turbine B Capability for new builds in WinDS No Construction Time (years) (1) NA Forced Outage Rate (%) (3) Construction Schedule (2) Fraction of Cost in Each Year Planned Outage Rate (%) (3) Emissions Rates (4) (lbs/MMBTU fuel input) SO2 Lifetime (years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 - - - - - - 2.1 0.02 0 8.0% 0.02 4.448 4.0% 5.77131 60 Yes 4 0.9% 9.02 4.9% 9.1 0.8% 0.2 0.0% 7.6E-06 55.8% 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 - - 7.2 0.0% 0 0 0 0 30 NA Nuclear Yes Geothermal No NA - - - - - - 5.0% 5.0184 0.1 - - 7.8% 0.448 4.4 0.7% 6.2 0.9% 9.0% 5.00015 0.1 7.08 0 33.2 0.0% 0 0 0 0 20 No NA - - - - - - 5.9% 9.0006 0.6E-06 55. 3 0.0% 5.3 0.1 5.4 0.02 0 33.6E-06 55.
600 2. Emission rates are estimated in Table B-12 for SO2.400 2030 2.5 10.600 2. Source: Black and Veatch.0 6.9 8.900 2005 780 14.200 2015 2.5 10.300 1.600 2.000 2015 2.400 3.0 6.100 3.9 8.750 38.020 90.840 38.900 2020 750 6.870 2015 780 14.0 11.120 35.840 38. and CO2.000 2010 2.900 2015 750 6.7 9.180 35. Cost and performance characteristics for conventional generation (US$2006) Gas CT Gas-CC New Coal (SC) Coal .560 2010 750 6.000 0.7 9.400 3.400 3.600 2.300 1.400 2010 3.400 2020 2.000 2005 2.840 38.240 35. Planned outages are assumed to occur in all seasons except summer. forthcoming 2008 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 185 .000 0.300 1.900 2030 750 6.IGCC Nuclear Install Date Capital Cost ($/kW) Fixed O&M ($/MW/yr) Variable O&M ($/MWh) Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 2005 625 7.8 8.260 90.000 0.400 2015 3.000 0.100 3.240 35.000 2030 2.7 9.100 3. Output emission rates (in pounds per megawatt-hour) are calculated by multiplying input emission rate by heat rate.400 3.100 2020 2.700 12.400 3.870 2010 780 14.100 3.0 6.900 2020 2.240 35.5 10.470 2010 2.870 2020 780 14. Table B-12 shows outage rates for each conventional technology.170 90.9 8.WinDS considers outage rates when determining the net capacity available for energy (as described in Section 2) and also when determining the capacity value of each technology.580 2005 3.100 3.7 9.0 6.870 2030 780 14.9 9.8 8. O&M costs do not include fuel.9 9. Heat rate is net heat rate (including internal plant loads). NOx.350 90.000 0.5 10. mercury.7 9.940 90. Table B-13 provides input-specific emission rates (in pounds per million British thermal units) for plants that use combustible fuel. Table B-13.300 1.800 2030 2.300 1.5 10.8 8.400 B Notes: New nuclear plants may not be constructed before 2010.870 2005 2.840 38.0 6.8 8.
Prices in the AEO 2007 are projected to 2030. procurement. Pulverized coal plants continue to operate in WinDS. and other costs.2 Fuel Prices Fuel prices for natural gas and coal are derived from reference projections from the AEO (EIA 2007b). Beyond 2030. 2015. To provide a conservative estimate while representing a more traditional mix of conventional generation technology. and SO2 scrubbers can be added to unscrubbed coal plants for $200/kW. and combined-cycle gas plants and 10% for simple-cycle gas plants provide an "all-in" cost. steam. WinDS increases fuel prices at the same national annual average rate as the AEO 2007 projects between 2020 and 2030. the AEO high natural gas price forecast has been implemented. and coal technologies are based on recent project costs according to Black & Veatch experience.B. Capital costs for 2005. representing siting difficulties. nuclear.4. These owners' costs are based on national averages and include transmission and interconnection. Cost and performance values for natural gas. WinDS sites conventional generation technology where it is least expensive (generally adjacent to load centers) and does not require new transmission. The New York Mercantile Exchange futures prices for natural gas for May 2007 through 2012 exceed the AEO's high fuel price forecast over that period. and fixed and variable O&M costs for conventional technologies that might be added to the electric system.4.5/MMBtu (Denholm and Short 2006). permitting. nuclear. the WinDS model tends to select natural gas-fueled technology over coal-fueled technology. The 20% Wind Scenario uses the reference AEO fuel price forecast for coal because government agencies and the private sector regularly use that forecast to make planning and investment decisions. but those currently in operation are maintained until retired. gas. an additional 20% of the capital costs listed in Table B-3 is applied to coal and nuclear generation technology in New England. California is the exception because its legislative requirements prohibit siting new coal plants. Owners' costs of 20% for coal. The price of uranium fuel in WinDS is constant at $0. 186 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . and unscrubbed coal plants cannot be added to the electric system. 2010. which are then assigned to a NERC subregion used in WinDS. A wet scrubber is included in the EPC costs for new pulverized coal plants. and construction (EPC) estimates for plants that will be commissioned in 2010. Also.1 Conventional Generation Cost and Performance Table B-13 also gives capital cost values. land. These tables provide the prices in each census region. Oil. B Figure B-4 illustrates the projected fossil fuel prices in constant $US2005. As with wind systems. under the current set of technology cost and performance assumptions. heat rates (efficiency). B. and 2020. and 2015 are based on proposed engineering.
Existing transmission capacity is estimated using a database of existing lines (length and voltage) from RDI/Platts (Platts Energy Market Data.platts. Projected coal and natural gas prices in WinDS to 2030 B. either by improving the grid or by tapping existing unused capacity.Figure B-4. In the near term.5 Transmission Three types of transmission systems can be used to transport wind power around the country: z B Existing grid: It is assumed that 10% of the existing grid can be used for new wind capacity.com/Analytic%20Solutions/ BaseCase/). one can expect that most wind will be built and use the existing grid without needing to build excessive amounts of new transmission lines. The supply curves described earlier are based on this type of transmission and the GIS optimization described here. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 187 . see http://www. A GIS optimization determines the distance at which a particular wind farm will have to be built to connect to the grid (based on the assumption that the closest wind installation will access the grid first at the least cost). Additionally. a pancake-type fee for crossing between balancing areas may be charged within the model. the existing grid will be insufficient. This database is translated into a megawatt capacity as a function of kilovolt (kV) rating and length (Weiss and Spiewak 1998). In this way. but as higher penetration levels are reached. a supply curve of costs to access the grid is created for each class of wind in each region.
and ERCOT. was recently adopted for the 15-state Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (Midwest ISO) region. 20% in PJM West (Maryland. parts of Illinois. the model can build directly from a wind resource location to a load within the same region. which is common in the industry. The assumed typical line is a 200-mile. A second GISgenerated supply curve is used within the model to assign a cost for this transmission.z New lines: The model has the ability to build straight-line transmission lines between any of the 358 wind regions. and 20% in California. Based on input from the AWEA expert panel. This is limited because conventional capacity can generally be built in the region where it is needed. In the WinDS model. 230-kV line rated at 170 megavolt amperes (MVA. AWEA experts indicate that new transmission line capacity might be constructed for any generation technology for an average cost of $1.236 kW/MW-mile. the other half is borne by the ratepayers within a region (because of the reliability benefits to all users associated with new transmission). there is essentially no wheeling fee between balancing areas used in this analysis (although the model has the capability to model such a fee). Indiana. and Virginia). used predominantly by conventional capacity and called general transmission. West Virginia. WinDS uses a transmission loss rate of 0.600/MW-mile. This 50–50 allocation. This means that the relative costs of transmission and capacity capital are in line with the model's assumption. line characteristics derived from EPRI [1983]). resulting in accurate total transmission costs. This value is based on the loss estimates for a typical transmission circuit (Weiss and Spiewak 1998). can be built as well. this sharing of costs is implied by reducing the cost of new transmission associated with a particular capacity by 50%. The WinDS model assumes that 50% of the cost of new transmission is borne by the generation technology for which the new transmission is being built (wind or conventional). The wind penetration is limited to 25% energy in each of the three interconnects: Western. regional transmission cost variations include an additional 40% in New England and New York. Eastern. New wind transmission lines that carry power across the main interconnects are not cost-shared with other technology. 30% in PJM East (New Jersey and Delaware). The line is built exactly to the size necessary to transmit the desired megawatts and the cost of building that transmission line is accounted for in the model. 188 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . B z In-region transmission: Within any of the 358 wind regions around the country. To emulate large regional planning structures based on that of the Midwest ISO. Ohio. thereby obviating the need for new transmission. A fourth type of transmission. The remaining 50% of transmission costs are integrated into the final cost value outputs from the model. Pennsylvania.
B. The variability of wind output precludes the planners from considering 1 MW of nameplate wind capacity to be the same as 1 MW of nameplate dispatchable capacity. there is a reasonable chance that it is not blowing at another nearby site. wind energy is available at varying levels that average about 30% to 45% of the time. there are ways to partly mitigate both the low availability of the wind resource and its correlation between sites. At the longest time interval. WinDS is able to approximate the distance between sites and.6 Treatment of Resource Variability Variability of the wind resource can affect the electricity grid in several ways. depending on the quality of the wind site. if the wind is not blowing at one wind site. In the past 20 years. Figure B-5 shows this correlation as a function of distance between sites in an east–west direction and in a north–south direction (Simonsen and Stevens 2004). this lack of availability can be handled in the same way—a statistical treatment that calculates how much more load can be added to the system for each megawatt of additional nameplate wind or conventional capacity or effective load carrying capability (ELCC). therefore. the capacity factors of new wind installations have improved considerably. It is also a weak function of the demand region's LDC and the size and forced outage rates of conventional capacity. This marginal ELCC is assumed to be 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 189 . This is attributable to better site exploration and characterization and to improvements in the wind turbines (largely higher towers). To meet this need. there is essentially no correlation between the outputs of any two conventional generation plants. ranging from multiyear planning issues to small instantaneous fluctuations in output. WinDS uses the correlation between sites to estimate the variation in wind output from the total set of wind farms supplying power to a particular region. a utility's capacity expansion plans might call for the construction of more nameplate generation capacity. Increasing the distance between sites and the terrain features that separate them reduces the chance that two sites will experience the same wind at the same time. The wind capacity cannot be counted on to be available when electricity demand is at its peak. planners can plan to build conventional dispatchable capacity or wind. The difference is in the degree of availability. Conventional generators experience forced outages on the order of 2% to 20% of the time. either. With its multiple regions. the correlation between their outputs. On the other hand. energy from a new wind farm can be heavily correlated with the output from the existing wind farms. Actually. Wind's ELCC is less than that of conventional capacity because (1) the wind availability is less than that of conventional generators and (2) at any given instant. B The correlation in wind output between sites can also be reduced. Fortunately. This marginal ELCC is a strong function of the wind capacity factor and the distance from the existing wind systems to the new wind site for which the ELCC is being calculated. conventional capacity cannot be considered 100% available. WinDS updates its estimate of the marginal ELCC associated with adding wind of each resource class in each wind supply region to meet demand within a NERC region. Between each two-year optimization period and for each demand region. One useful way to examine these impacts is to categorize them in terms of time. In other words. For planning purposes.
California. these capacity values (ELCCs) are almost equal to the peak season capacity factor. however. If that power costs more per kilowatt-hour than the owner is being paid for the day-ahead bid. the owner may have to make up the difference by purchasing power on the real-time market. the ELCC can decline to almost zero in an individual wind supply region. B The next time frame of major interest is the day ahead. transmission availability and cost. Not all of today's electric grid systems operate day-ahead and real-time markets. all factors are never "equal. (From a practical standpoint. for the first wind site supplying a demand region. WinDS will select the next site in a region that is as far from the existing sites as possible to ensure the lowest correlation and the highest ELCC for the next wind site. Utilities generally make decisions on which generating units to commit to generation the day before they are actually committed. allows a monthly balancing of bid and actual wind generation that is much more tolerant of the inaccuracies in forecasting wind a day ahead of time. and local siting costs. To capture the essence of the unit-commitment issue. the owner will lose money on those kilowatt-hours that must be purchased.Figure B-5. In all cases. the imbalances can be offset with adequate operating reserves." and WinDS considers the trade-offs between ELCC and wind site quality.) Generally. independent power plant owners can be expected to bid for firm capacity a day ahead. To comply with these unit-commitment procedures. though. when expanding wind capacity. Distance between wind sites and correlation with power output the capacity value of each megawatt of that wind class added in the next period in that wind supply region to serve the NERC region's demand. if the wind owner bids to provide firm capacity and the wind does not blow as forecast. WinDS estimates the impact of wind variability on the need for operating reserves (which include quick-start and spinning reserves) that can rapidly respond to changes in wind output. For example. for example. All other factors being equal. The operating reserves are assumed to be a linear function of the 190 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . This can be problematic for wind generator owners. As the wind penetrates to higher levels.
The resulting value is the difference between the operating reserve required by the total system with the new wind and the operating reserve required by the total system if there were no new wind installations in that wind supply region. these instantaneous changes in wind output do not all occur at the same time. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 191 . The CAIR rule divides the United States into two regions.7 B Federal and State Energy Policy All currently enacted federal and state emission standards. In the shortest time interval. Fortunately. even from wind turbines within the same wind farm.. B. renewable portfolio standards (RPS).g. In addition. The second—and usually least costly—option is to allow the dispersion of new wind installations to reduce the correlation of the outputs from different wind sites. regulation reserves must compensate for instantaneous changes in wind output. This lack of correlation over time and the ease with which conventional generators can respond allows this second-order cost to be reasonably ignored. This value is then used throughout the next two-year linear program optimization as the marginal operating reserve requirement induced by the next megawatt of wind addition in that region of that wind resource class. It can also charge a tax for CO2 emissions. WinDS has three endogenous options for mitigating the impact of resource variability. the total variance can be calculated as the sum of the variance associated with the normal (i. WinDS uses the U. WinDS assumes that energy generated by wind that is delivered to a specific demand region in a specific time slice and exceeds the total electricity load in that region/time slice will be lost. the model can allow for storage of electricity at the wind site. gas-CC) and quick-start capabilities (combustion turbines).. WinDS also statistically accounts for surplus wind lost within a time slice because of variations in load and wind within the time slice. and tax credits are implemented in WinDS. which is usually the most costly option. Neither a carbon cap nor a tax is implemented in the 20% Wind Scenario. Emissions of SO2 are capped at the national level. B.1 Federal Emission Standards WinDS has the ability to add a national cap on CO2 emissions from electricity production. replacing the previous limits established by the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). WinDS calculates the marginal operating reserve additions required by the next unit of wind added in a particular wind supply region from a particular wind class. The first is to add conventional generators that can provide spinning reserve (e.7. WinDS uses a cap that corresponds roughly to the 2005 Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR).S. Before each two-year optimization. The storage option was not available within this analysis and is currently being developed for the model.variance in the sum of generation (both wind and conventional) minus load. no wind) operating reserve and the total variance (over all the wind supply regions) in the wind output over the reconciliation period. Regulation reserves are normally provided by automatic generation control of conventional generators whose output can be automatically adjusted to compensate for small voltage changes on the grid. Because the variability of wind is statistically independent of load variability and forced outages. Finally.e.
S.7. Federal renewable energy incentives Name Value Renewable Energy PTC $19/MWh Notes and Source Applies to wind. As a result. .3 State Energy Incentives Several states also offer production and investment incentives for renewable energy resource development.1 5. 192 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Control technologies for SO2 and NOx that are required for CAIR are expected to capture enough mercury to largely meet the cap goals. Value is adjusted for inflation to US$2006. a PTC has been available for wind up to 2008 (see Table B-15).Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) estimate of the effective national cap on SO2 resulting from the CAIR rule (EPA 2005).7. These incentives generally have the effect of reducing the cost of producing energy from these and other renewable sources. Congress 2005) B. A production tax credit (PTC) provides an offset to the tax liability of companies. These incentives. but the net effect on the overall competitiveness of coal is expected to be relatively small (EIA 2003). Table B-16 lists the values used in WinDS.3 3.epa.2 Federal Energy Incentives Several classes of incentives have been applied to wind systems at the federal level. however. Table B-14.6 6. expected to be met largely via the requirements of CAIR. Table B-14 shows the SO2 cap used in WinDS. B. The Clean Air Mercury Rule (see http://www. The NOx cap from CAIR can be added.htm) is a cap and trade regulation. are overwhelmed in the 20% Wind Scenario by the specification of wind energy generation in each year through 2030. Within this analysis. Expires end of 2008. the incremental cost of mercury regulations is very low and is not modeled in WinDS (EIA 2003).gov/camr/index. (U.0 4.5 (EPA 2005) NOx emissions are currently unconstrained in WinDS. B Table B-15. No limit to the aggregated amount of incentive. Mercury emissions are currently unconstrained in WinDS. National SO2 emission limit schedule in WinDS Year 2003 2010 2015 2020 2030 National SO2 Emissions (Million Tons) 10. based on the production of energy from the resource receiving the incentive.
85 7.006 Legislated Load RPS Fraction5 Fraction (%) 1.5 4.013 0.2 0. A capacity mandate requires a utility to install a certain fixed capacity of renewable energy generation.062 0.taxadmin.00% Investment and production tax credit data from IREC 2006 Tax rates from: www.84 See Note 6 1 See Note 6 1 8 0.69 10 0.0% 7. State renewable energy incentives State PTC $/ MWh Iowa Idaho Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico Oklahoma Utah Washington Wyoming ITC Assumed State Corporate Tax Rate 5.056 0.044 0.0% 5.045 0.0079 0.Table B-16.8 1.00% 5. State RPS requirements as of August 2005 State RPS Start Year2 RPS Full Implementation3 Penalty in $/MWh Arizona California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Illinois Massachusetts Maryland Minnesota Montana New Jersey New Mexico Nevada New York Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Texas Vermont Wisconsin 2001 2003 2007 2004 2007 2004 2003 2006 2002 2008 2005 2006 2003 2006 2005 2002 2007 2007 2003 2005 2001 2025 2017 2015 2010 2019 2013 2009 2019 2015 2015 2008 2011 2015 2013 2016 2020 2020 2019 2015 2012 2011 50 5 50 55 25 10 50 20 10 10 50 10 10 5 50 5 45 55 50 10 10 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version WinDS Assumed RPS Fraction4 0.072 0.069 0.075 0. a state might also meet requirements by importing electricity.125 MW 1 15 0.035 0.0% 6.026 0.html B.99 5.014 0.05 0.0% 7.89 25 0.75 15 0.92 4 0.00% 6.53 20 0.4 State Renewable Portfolio Standards A number of states have addressed RPS.034 0. and states can put capacity mandates in place as an alternative or supplement to an RPS (see Table B-17).org/fta/rate/corp_inc.00% 10.5 0.98 15 0.50% 4.8% 9.9 6.133 0.1 1 20 0.078 0.75% 6. Table B-17.63 10 0.026 0.5 1 10 0.60% 9.880 MW 1 See Note 6 1 2.029 0.50% 6.75 B 193 .94 10 0.01 0.0% 10 2.0% 0. Unless prohibited by law.0% 0.7.05 0.
5% discount rate) value on benefits and costs encountered further in the future. including wind capital costs.State RPS Start Year2 RPS Full Implementation3 Penalty in $/MWh WinDS Assumed RPS Fraction4 Legislated RPS Fraction (%) Load Fraction5 Notes: 1) RPS data as of 8/16/05. Source: IREC 2006. Finally.5% real weighted cost of capital to represent a typical utility perspective. the total cost difference is levelized to satisfy the following formula: ∑ wind generationt * LC /(1+d)t = PV of costs in 20% case – PV of costs in no wind case 194 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . conventional energy capital costs. The goal was to estimate the cost per kilowatt-hour of wind produced and the cost per kilowatt-hour of total load met. the cost impacts beyond 2030 are estimated. The WinDS model run is made with an 8. it was programmed to calculate costs incurred in each year of the simulation from 2008 through 2030 for both cases (with and without wind).8 Electricity Sector Direct Cost Calculation The objective of the electricity sector direct cost calculation is to determine the difference in system-wide costs where 20% wind penetration is required compared to the case where no new wind penetrates after 2006. The resulting numbers for both scenarios are reported in Appendix A. 2) RPS Start Year is the "beginning" of the RPS program. a social discount rate of 7% should be used in accordance with Office of Management and Budget guidelines (OMB 1992). B. municipal or cooperative power systems may be exempt from the RPS. all costs (including the approximated costs after 2030) are discounted back to 2006. In evaluating a policy such as an RPS. The total cost difference then simply becomes the difference in the present value of the two cost streams. and conventional fuel costs. not just the portion shared by each generator). To arrive at the estimate. WinDS assumes the fraction met is ramped up linearly between the start year and the full implementation year. This is a conservative approach because it assumes that the wind farms are retired linearly. 6) Several states have special funds set aside to promote renewables. 5) Load fraction is the fraction of the total state load that must meet the RPS. To find the cost per kilowatt-hour (levelized cost) of wind produced. To gather necessary costs from the WinDS model. This lower rate effectively places higher (higher than a utility's 8. the model assumes that wind generation would linearly decay from 2030 to 2050 and that the conventional fuel and O&M savings would also linearly decay to 0 from 2030 to 2050. In certain locations. This value is based on the total state RPS requirement and adjusted to estimate the fraction actually provided by wind since WinDS does not currently include other renewables such as biomass cofiring and certain hydro projects. wind and conventional transmission build costs (including the full transmission cost. The net increase in wind due to these funds was estimated and applied as an effective RPS. The RPS is ramped linearly to the full implementation year. 4) WinDS Assumed RPS Fraction is the fraction of state demand that must be met by wind by the full implementation year. B Because the benefits (especially fuel savings) of wind turbines installed in the years immediately preceding 2030 are not evident until after 2030. 3) RPS Full Implementation is the year that the full RPS fraction must be met. These costs are then broken into subgroups.
http://www.doe. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). http://www. SR/OIAF/2004-06.html. 2006a. to find the cost per kilowatt-hour of total generation. Washington.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo06/supplement/index. EIA. DC: EIA. 2006b.gov/cneaf/electricity/ipp/html1/tb5p01. EIA.9 References & Suggested Further Reading Denholm. Analysis of Senate Amendment 2028. Washington. Upgrading Transmission Capacity for Wholesale Electric Power Trade. 2003. the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003. Washington.gov/analysis/winds/pdfs/winds_data.eia. replace wind generation with total generation in the preceding formula.As a second result.gov/cneaf/pubs_html/feat_trans_capacity/w_sale. Washington. Washington.html. The Electricity Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System. the Clear Skies Act of 2003. . Documentation of WinDS Base Case. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 195 . DC: EIA. DC: EIA. Version AEO 2006 (1). NERC Regions.doe. Washington. DOE/EIA-M068(2004). 843. 2004b. Analysis of S. and S. DC: EIA. Golden. P. SR/OIAF2003-03(2003). Short. Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006.pdf.eia. DC: EIA. Model Documentation Report. the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003.2030 ) FractionNotRetiredWind ) / ( 1 + d ( t – 2006 ) )) t=2031 where FractionNotRetiredWind = Fraction of wind generation remaining from wind capacity installed prior to 2031 in the 20% wind case B. and Census Divisions. EIA. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 with Projections to 2030. DC: EIA. http://www. and W.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo06/assumption/index. B EIA (Energy Information Administration). Washington.eia. 2006. Cross Reference of States to Federal Regions. 2004a. DC: EIA.eia. http://www.nrel. 485.. http://www. The complete equation that calculates the present value of the costs used in the preceding equation is as follows: PVCosts = a + b + c 2030 a = Σ ( ( CapCostNewCapacityt + CapCostNewTransmission t + O&MCost t + FuelCost t ) / ( 1 + d ) ( t – 2006 ) ) t=2006 2050 b = Σ ( WindO&MCostsCapBuiltBy2030 t / ( 1 + d ) ( t – 2006 ) ) t=2031 2050 c = Σ ( ( ( ConvO&M2030 + Fuel Cost. 2002.html EIA. EIA. EIA. 2000.doe.doe.html.
Washington. http://www. Iredell.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.htm. 196 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Washington.1175%2F1520 0477%281996%29077%3C0437%3ATNYRP%3E2.dsireusa.html. Charts and Tables. Washington. PNL-SA-23109. 2007a. Supplemental Tables to the Annual Energy Outlook. Elliott. and L.S.epa. 2005b. Database of State Incentives for Renewable & Efficiency (DSIRE). 2007d. 2006. CA: EPRI. 1983.epa.html EIA. Projected Benefits of Federal Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Programs-FY2007 Budget Request. Fifth edition. Richland.Washington. W. DC: EIA. 2005a. DE94001667." In Volume I: Stationary Point and Area Sources.gov/cair/charts_files/cair_emissions_costs. 2006. "Learning Rates for Energy Technologies. EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute). B IREC (Interstate Renewable Energy Council). "The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. "About the Program. Deaven. W. 77.pdf. Gandin.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/index.nrel. DOE/EIA-0383. and S. L. eGRID Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database. Butterfield. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Collins. 2001. DC: EPA.eia. EPA.gov/wind/uppermidwestanalysis. Golden. 2006c.gov/ba/pdfs/39684_00. Tables 60 through 72. http://www. SR/OIAF/2006-03. Kanamitsu. DC: EIA. CO: NREL. EIA.. Washington.N.html. WA: Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). DC: EIA. Palo Alto.eere. 1996. NREL. D. R. Washington. EPA (U. CO: NREL.epa. Kalnay. A. 1993. NTIS No.org/." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. NREL.doe. M.L. Golden.eia. 2004. EIA.gov/oiaf/archive/aeo07/index. http://ams.EIA. AP-42. NREL/CP-500-36313.0. Schwartz. http://www... Washington.allenpress. M. Kistler. Transmission Line Reference Book." Energy Policy 29. 2007b. http://www. 255–261. McDonald. Second edition. DC: EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs.CO%3B2.html EIA.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/.com/perlserv/?request=res loc&uri=urn%3Aap%3Apdf%3Adoi%3A10.energy. Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030. Schrattenholzer. EPA. National Wind Technology Center Website. E. Washington. DC: EIA.doe. Energy and Economic Impacts of H. D. http://www. Clean Air Interstate Rule. 345-kV and Above.R. and M. http://www1. Musial. 437–471.gov/cleanenergy/egrid/index. 2006. 2007c. 1996. DC: EIA. the Keep America Competitive Global Warming Policy Act.5049. NREL/TP-320-39684.eia.. et al.doe. Wind Energy Potential in the United States. DC: EPA. SR/OIAF/2007-01.pdf. http://www. Future for Offshore Wind Energy in the United States. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030. Energy Market and Economic Impacts of a Proposal to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Intensity with a Cap and Trade System. Report No. Environmental Protection Agency). http://www." http://www.
PA Consulting Group.whitehouse. Several sources for emissions data are available from the EPA. WA: PNL. R. and A. DOE/CH 10093-4. Congress. Detailed emissions estimates for different combustion technologies and emissions controls can be found in the AP-42 series. and M. 1987. T. Washington. The eGRID database estimates emissions rates from existing plants. 2007.pdf. Spiewak.. and S. 2004. R. CO: NREL. Annual Report on U.Washington. http://www.html. Heimiller.pdf.S. Circular A-94. Regional Data and GIS Representation: Methods. Bolinger. based on measured fuel use and continuous emissions monitoring system data measurement 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version B 197 . DC: 109th Congress. Notes: Many of the assumptions about conventional generation and fuel prices are drawn from the EIA's National Energy Modeling System. Wiser.gov/analysis/workshops/pdfs/brady_gis_workshop. Regional Wind Energy Analysis for the Central United States. Milbrandt. "Reserve Margin Data. http://www. Simonsen. the supplemental tables (which contain additional details on results at the regional level). Wind Power Installation. 2005. Approaches & Issues.GA: The Fairmont Press Inc.org/wind/literature/Regional_Wind. including the AP-42 series of documents. http://www. and B. July. Sabeff. DC: OMB. Cost. ND: Energy and Environmental Research Center. et al. Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Federal Programs. Domenici-Barton Energy Policy Act of 2005.osti. R. OMB (Office of Management and Budget). The Wheeling and Transmission Manual.. Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States. Weiss.. 20 % Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. which consists of three documents: the main AEO (which focuses on results). Stevens. L. KS: Black & Veatch.undeerc. DOE/GO-102007-2433. Golden. PNL. Richland." Energy Observer 2. Presentation to Scoping Workshop for GIS Regionalization for EERE Models.. D. Pletka.gov/bridge. 1998.nrel.S. R. 2004.gov/OMB/circulars/index. http://www. Lilburn. and the assumptions (which presents input details).. This information is published in the AEO. L. 2004. and Performance Trends: 2006. George. U. 1992. Overland Park. Grand Forks. 2007.O'Connell.
and operational assumptions in the WinDS model show that an annual installation rate of about 16 gigawatts per year (GW/year) reached by 2018 could result in generation capacity capable of supplying 20% of the nation's electricity demand by 2030. sustaining a level of annual installations at approximately 16 GW/year beyond 2030 would accommodate the repowering of aging wind turbine equipment along with increased electricity demand. because turbine performance is unchanged over time and only one wind resource power class was assumed. identifying such transfers accurately would be very difficult so the impacts cited here do not constitute impacts to the U. This annual installation rate is affected by the quality of wind resources selected for development as well as future wind turbine performance. Cost and performance projections for this analysis were supplied by Black & Veatch (Black and Veatch. and Blair 2006).The impacts were calculated using the Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model. The declining annual installed capacity after 2024 is an artifact of the prescribed energy generation from the NREL study in which technology improvement and wind resource variation were not considered. C The combined cost. so that the nation's energy demand would continue to be met at the 20% wind level. along with the corresponding annual wind capacity installations that the WinDS model projects will meet these energy-generation percentages. Based on the wind resource data and the projected wind technology improvements presented in this report. forthcoming 2008) and are detailed in Appendix B. Figure C-1 illustrates the energy generation trajectory proposed by the NREL study. and specific assumptions are described in Appendix B.Appendix C.S. This installation level 198 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . The 20% wind by 2030 trajectory was implemented in WinDS by calculating the percentage of annual energy production from wind at an increase of approximately 1% per year. Appendix A summarizes the WinDS modeled scenario. technology. Hand. The 20% Wind Scenario was constructed by specifying annual wind energy generation for every year from 2007 to 2030 based on a trajectory proposed in an NREL study (Laxson. The NREL study provides an upper level of about 20 GW/year. based in part on data from the Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model (developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL]). Wind-Related Jobs and Economic Development This appendix details the economic model used to project the employment and economic development impacts of the 20% Wind Scenario described in Appendix A. The investigators evaluated aggressive near-term growth rates followed by sustainable levels of wind capacity installations that would maintain electricity generation levels at 20% and accommodate the repowering of wind installations beyond 2030. Ramping up wind capacity and electricity output from wind would displace jobs and economic activity elsewhere. The 2006 study forced the WinDS model to reach the 20% level for wind-generated electricity by 2030. economy overall but are specific to the wind industry and related industries from this 20% scenario. However.
and improvements in wind technology and electric power system infrastructure. and materials for installation of wind farms and operations and maintenance (O&M) functions. Subsequent enhancements made the model capable of performing county.Figure C-1. which shows the potential employment impacts from this scenario along with other impacts to the United States associated with new wind installations. please contact Marshall Goldberg at mrgassociates@earthlink. These impacts include employment numbers created in the wind power sector. Additionally.net or Suzanne Tegen at suzanne_tegen@nrel. labor. such as a production tax credit (PTC) or carbon regulation policy. electricity from wind by 2030. JEDI was initially designed to estimate economic impacts to state economies. changes in the wind power and electricity industries would need to be made.1 C The JEDI Model C. C. and the increase in overall economic activity associated with the construction and operating phases of new wind power.gov.windpoweringamerica. This particular analysis focuses primarily on 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 199 . For questions. Documentation is listed on the same site.1. which are discussed in the body of this report. This appendix covers the output from the JEDI model. training. The JEDI spreadsheet-based model for wind is free and available to the public. are not modeled. To obtain 20% of U.gov. Hand. These changes.1 Model Description The JEDI model was developed in 2002 for NREL to demonstrate the state and local economic development impacts associated with developing wind power plants in the United States. and Blair (2006) and corresponding annual wind capacity installation for 20% Wind Scenario from WinDS model. It can be downloaded from the Wind Powering America website: www.S. this scenario shows that this level of wind development could accommodate the repowering of aging wind turbine equipment. Prescribed annual wind technology generation as a percentage of national electricity demand from Laxson. include advances in domestic manufacturing of wind turbine components. Specific policy incentives necessary for this growth. and national analyses as well. could maintain energy production of 20% of the Nation's demand. regional.
the direct effect includes what are usually called first-round indirect effects (e. and suppliers of other necessary materials and services. wage and salary income. Minnesota. Spending from new investments (e. when plant workers and other local workers receive income from expenditures related to the plant.. construction. vendor. the model relies on investment and expenditure data from the 20% Wind Scenario for the period between 2007 and 2030. Typically. and other goods and services from local business. It also uses industry multipliers that trace supply linkages in the economy. It also includes the jobs at the manufacturing plants that build the turbines and the jobs at the factories that produce the towers and blades.S. For example. as well as the steel mills. z z z C Direct impacts are the on-site or immediate effects created by spending money for a new wind project.-specific multipliers and personal expenditure patterns. clothing. see http://www.. The model evaluates three separate impacts for each expenditure: direct. the construction phase includes the on-site jobs of the contractors and crews hired to construct the plant as well as their managers and staffs. The IMPLAN model is based on U.economic impacts for the United States as a whole. These multipliers—for patterns of employment. and induced.g. output (economic activity). among others.18 Indirect impacts refer to the increase in economic activity that occurs. industry and census data.. and personal spending (expenditure)—are adapted from the IMPLAN Professional Software model (Minnesota IMPLAN Group. JEDI relies on U.html). purchases of equipment and services) to construct and operate wind plants is matched with the appropriate multipliers for each industry sector (e. This includes the banker who finances the contractor and the accountant who keeps the contractor's books. when a contractor. For example. In the JEDI model. indirect.implan. Inc. This figure excludes the impacts on other energy sectors as wind power displaces other sources of energy. although some state and regional results are presented. demand to manufacturers and other goods and service suppliers). To calculate economic impacts.g. for example. they in turn purchase food. the change in final demand to an industry (in this instance the wind industry) is seen as the direct effect. but also the fabricated metal industries and other businesses that supply inputs (goods and services) to those manufacturers. 18 When an impact analysis is conducted in this manner. the definitions of direct and indirect are changed somewhat. or manufacturer receives payment for goods or services and in turn is able to pay others who support their business. the analysis shows how wind turbine purchases benefit not only turbine manufacturers.S. In the JEDI model. Stillwater. electrical part manufacturers. The sum of these three impacts yields a total impact that results from the construction of the turbine. Figure C-2 illustrates this ripple effect—the turbine installation spending that increases dollar flow in the economy.com/software. Induced impacts are the changes in wealth that result from spending by people directly and indirectly employed by the project.g. 200 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .. The JEDI indirect effects are all subsequent rounds of the industry indirect effects.
. it relies on interindustry relationships and personal consumption patterns at the time of the analysis.g.650/kW and again with a construction cost – excluding construction financing . For new power plants. The model does not account for feedback through demand increases or reductions that could result from price changes. production recipe for labor. and others) affected by the change in expenditure. As such. and potential changes in industry and personal consumption patterns in the economy noted earlier. and service cost ratios). Similarly. changes during construction.1. machinery.Figure C-2. it is important to underscore several caveats about the JEDI model. In addition. Wind's economic ripple effect electrical equipment. the model assumes that adequate local resources and production and service capabilities are available to meet the level of local demand identified in the model's assumptions. or changes in O&M processes (e. the analysis is not intended to provide a 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 201 .. the model is considered static. C. Outputs from the JEDI model are reported for two distinct phases: the construction phase and the annual operations phase.g. wind power plant construction and operating costs) to demonstrate the economic impacts that will likely result during the construction and operating periods.. The construction period outputs represent the entire construction period (typically one year for a utility-scale wind project.g. once with a construction cost of $1. the model does not account for feedback from inflationary pressures or potential constraints on local labor and money supplies. the model is run with new cost assumptions (e.610/kW). The outputs for the operating period represent the jobs and economic impacts created for one year of operation. the model does not automatically take into account improvements in industry productivity over time. First. Given the potential for future changes in wind power plant costs beyond those identified.2 Caveats Before noting the specific economic impacts from the 20% Wind Scenario. although this can vary depending on the size of the project). C Second. professional services. the intent of using the JEDI model is to construct a reasonable profile of investments (e. materials. To adjust for advancements in technology or changes in wages and salaries.of $1.
9 GW 17. the authors relied on inputs from the WinDS model.00/MWh Land-Based Total 293. The cost data are allocated into expenditure categories. but rather an estimate of overall economic impacts in the wind energy sector from specific scenarios. This means that results do not reflect the net impacts of construction or operation of other types of electricity-generating power plants or replacement of existing power generation resources to meet growing needs. Third. Table C-1 summarizes the wind data assumptions used in the JEDI model.106 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .00/MWh $18. which in this case is the entire United States.50/kW $15.5 GW 79. The detailed cost and performance projections can be found in Appendix B of this report.976 3000 kW $1650 $1650 $1610 $1570 $1530 $1480 $2400 $2300 $2200 $2150 $2130 $2100 $11.4 GW 97. this is considered a gross analysis. Fourth.00/MWh $5.50/MWh $21.50/MWh $5. Each category includes the portion of the expenditure that goes to the local area.00/kW $7.precise forecast. the analysis assumes that the output from the wind power plants and the specific terms of the power purchase agreements generate sufficient revenues to accommodate the equity and debt repayment and annual operating expenditures.00/MWh $16. And finally. JEDI wind modeling assumptions Category Period of Analysis Nameplate Capacity Number of Turbines Turbine Size Technology Cost1 per kW 2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 O&M Costs Fixed2 Variable3 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 C 202 2007-2030 Shallow Offshore 2007-2030 239.130 1500–5000 kW 53. additional impacts beyond these years are not considered. Table C-1.2 Wind Scenario Inputs To assess the economic development from the addition of 293 GW of wind technology in the United States. because the analysis and results are specific to developing new land-based and offshore wind power plants only.00/MWh $13.00/MWh $14. C.00/MWh $4.60/MWh $4. the analysis period is 2007 through 2030.
U.S. Spending
Materials and Services
Major Components
Machine Heads
Equipment (Manufacturing
50% in 2007 to 80% in 2030
26% in 2007 to 50% in 2030
20% in 2007 to 42% in 2030
10% in 2007 to 30% in 2030
Notes: 1. All dollar values are 2006 dollars. Technology costs exclude construction
financing costs and regional cost variations that result from increased population density,
elevation, or other considerations that are included in the WinDS model. Thus, the
cumulative investment costs presented in this study are lower than those presented in
Appendix A. 2. Fixed costs include land lease cost. 3. Variable costs include property taxes.
4. Refers to U.S. manufacturing/assembly for turbines, blades and towers. For purposes of
this modeling, the transition (percentage of U.S. manufacturing/assembly) is assumed to
occur at an average annual rate over the 24-year period.
As explained earlier, the JEDI model uses project expenditures—or spending—for
salaries, services, and materials to calculate the total economic impacts. Table C-2
summarizes the expenditure data used in the analysis.
Table C-2. Wind plant expenditure data summary (in millions)
All Wind
Total Cumulative Construction Cost
Domestic Spending
Total Annual Operational Expenses in
Direct O&M Costs
Other Annual Costs
Property Taxes
Land Lease
Notes: All dollar values are 2006 dollars. All dollars represent millions of dollars. Though
some of the money spent during construction leaves the country, all O&M spending is
As Table C-3 indicates, developing 293 GW of new land-based and offshore wind
technologies from 2007 to 2030 could have significant economic impacts for the
entire United States. Cumulative economic activity from the construction phase
alone will reach more than $944 billion for direct, indirect, and induced activity in
the nation. This level of economic activity stimulates an annual average of more
than 250,000 workers required for employment in the wind power and related
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
sectors from 2007 forward. Of these average annual positions, the wind industry
supports 70,000 full-time workers in construction-related sectors, including more
than 47,000 full-time workers directly in construction and 22,000 workers in
manufacturing. As noted earlier, this estimate does not take into account the
offsetting employment effects in other energy sectors.
Table C-3. U.S. construction-related economic impacts from 20% wind
Average Annual Impacts
Direct Impacts
Construction Sector Only
Manufacturing Sector Only
Other Industry Sectors
Indirect Impacts
Induced Impacts
Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect,
Total Construction Impacts
NPV of
Direct Impacts
Construction Sector Only
Manufacturing Sector Only
Other Industry Sectors
Indirect Impacts
Induced Impacts
Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect,
Note: All dollar values are millions of 2006 dollars. Average annual Jobs are full-time equivalent for
each year of the construction period. Cumulative jobs are total full-time equivalent for the 24-year
construction period from 2007 through 2030. The NPV column shows the net present value of the
output column with a discount rate of 7%, per guidance from the Office of Management and
Under this scenario, the wind industry would produce 300 GW/year. By 2020, the
economic activity generated from annual operations of the wind turbines would
exceed $27 billion/year. The number of wind plant workers alone would grow to
more than 28,000/year, and total wind-related employment would exceed 215,000
workers (see Table C-4).
Table C-4. U.S. operations-related economic impacts from 20% wind
Operation of 300 GW
in 2030
Direct Impacts
Plant Workers Only
Nonplant Workers
Indirect Impacts
Induced Impacts
Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect,
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
Operation of 300 GW
in 2030
Total Operation Impacts 20072030
NPV of
Property Tax
Land Lease
Direct Impacts
Other Direct Impacts
Plant Workers Only
Nonplant Workers
Indirect Impacts
Induced Impacts
Total Impacts (Direct, Indirect,
Note: All dollar values are millions of 2006 dollars. Operation jobs in 2030 are full-time equivalent
for operation of the 300 GW fleet existing in 2030. Cumulative jobs are total full-time equivalent for
the 24-year construction period from 2007 through 2030. The NPV column shows the net present
value of the output column with a discount rate of 7%, per guidance from the Office of Management
and Budget.
Economic impacts from direct, indirect, and induced impacts are shown per year in
Figure C-3.
Figure C-3. Annual direct, indirect and induced economic
impacts from 20% scenario
Figure C-4 displays the total economic impacts on a relative basis. The impacts of
both the construction and the operation phases are included for the entire period
from 2007 through 2030.
The 20% Wind Scenario shows the U.S. wind industry growing from its current 3
GW/year in 2007 to a sustained 16 GW/year by around 2018, as represented in
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
Figure C-4. Total economic impacts of 20% Wind Energy by 2030
on a relative basis
Figure C-1. In the following sections, employment impacts in the wind industry are
divided into three major industry sectors: manufacturing, construction, and
operations. Each sector is described during the year of its maximum employment
supported by the wind industry.
The JEDI model estimates the number of jobs supported by one project throughout
the economy, as well as the total economic output from the project. Results from the
JEDI model do not include macroeconomic effects; instead, the model focuses on
jobs and impacts supported by specific wind projects. In other words, the
employment estimates from the JEDI model look only at gross economic impacts
from this 20% Wind Scenario.
Manufacturing Sector
The 20% Wind Scenario includes the prospect of significantly expanding wind
power manufacturing capabilities in the United States. In 2026, this level of wind
development supports more than 32,000 U.S. manufacturing full-time workers in
land-based and offshore wind projects. These employment impacts are directly
related to producing the major components and subcomponents for the turbines,
towers, and blades installed in the United States. Although the level of domestic
wind installations declines after 2021 in the scenario modeled, the manufacturing
and construction industries have the potential to maintain a high level of
employment and expand further to meet increasing global demand.
To estimate the potential location for manufacturing jobs, data from a non
governmental organization, Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP), report were
used (Sterzinger and Svrcek 2004). The REPP report identified existing U.S.
companies with the technical potential to enter the wind turbine market. The map in
Figure C-5 was created using the percentages of manufacturing capability in each
state and JEDI's manufacturing jobs output. Again, these potential manufacturing
jobs from the REPP report are based on technical potential existing in 2004, without
assuming increased productivity or expansion over time. The data also assume that
existing facilities that manufacture components similar to wind turbine components
are modified. Most of the manufacturing jobs in this scenario are located in the
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
Figure C-5. Potential manufacturing jobs created by 2030
Great Lakes region, where manufacturing jobs are being lost. Even states without a
significant wind resource can be impacted economically from new manufacturing
jobs (e.g., southeastern US).
Construction Sector
The year 2021 represents the height of the wind plant construction period, with 16.7
GW of wind having been brought online. In that year, more than 65,000 construction
industry workers are assumed to be employed and $54.5 billion is generated in the
U.S. economy from direct, indirect, and induced construction spending.
To reach the 20% Wind Scenario, today's wind power industry would have to grow
from 9,000 annual construction jobs in 2007 to install 3 GW, to 65,000 new annual
construction jobs in 2021 to install more than 16 GW. Construction jobs could be
dispersed throughout the United States. Assuming the 16 GW/year capacity can be
maintained into the future, including the replacement of outdated wind plants, the
industry could maintain 20% electricity from wind as demand grows. In this
scenario, the construction sector would experience the largest increase in jobs,
followed by the operations sector, and then by the manufacturing sector. Figure C-6
shows the direct employment impact on the construction sector, the manufacturing
sector and the operations sector (plant workers only).
Figure C-7 shows employment impacts during the same years, but adds the indirect
and induced jobs. The bottom three bars (manufacturing, construction, and
operations—including plant workers and other direct jobs) are direct jobs only. This
chart depicts the large impact from the indirect and induced job categories,
compared to the initial direct expenditures in the direct categories.
20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version
6 Operations Sector JEDI results indicate that in 2030.000 total operations workers (direct. and induced) will exist to maintain 293 GW of wind capacity installed between 2007 and 2030. utility services and subcontractors).000 direct O&M jobs and 48. construction. indirect. Direct manufacturing. This includes more than 28.000 other direct jobs related to operating a wind plant (e. and induced categories C C. and operations jobs supported by the 20% Wind Scenario Figure C-7.. Jobs per year from direct.Figure C-6. indirect. JEDI predicts that land-based and offshore wind project operations will have a total economic impact of $27 billion.g. Operations employment would be dispersed across the country and is likely to be 208 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . employment of more than 215. In 2030.
Rural Americans.near wind installations. and induced. indirect. Figure C-8 shows the results of JEDI analysis performed on a state-by-state basis in the form of impacts to each North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region. Counties use property taxes to improve roads and schools. if a maintenance worker holds one job for 20 years. analysis. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 209 .S. in particular. Economic impacts are direct. Jobs and economic impacts by NERC region C Figure C-8 shows jobs in job-years. along with other vital infrastructure. The individual state impacts were summed to calculate the NERC region impacts. Jobs during the operations period are assumed to last for 20 years.8 billion is estimated in property taxes and land lease payments between 2007 and 2030. which could be an important boost for rural communities. jobs during construction are assumed to last for one year. Figure C-8 shows three additional years when compared to other results. which are FTE jobs counted in each year in which they exist. More than $8. Figure C-8. this is shown as 20 job-years. the model considers the whole country to be "local"). For this figure. Because it represents impacts from 305 GW of new wind starting in 2004 and ending in 2030. These total impacts are lower than those from the JEDI analysis for the entire country because any job or dollar flowing out of state is considered monetary leakage (in the U. For example. could realize significant positive impacts from this scenario in the form of landowner payments and property taxes.
implan. Based on the scenario presented in this report. the United States has made much progress recently in developing its wind resources. Overland Park. MIG IMPLAN. Svrcek. a new and expanding wind manufacturing industry can meet 20% of our domestic electricity needs through 2030. as identified in the 20% Wind Scenario. A. Wind Turbine Development: Location of Manufacturing Activity. significant opportunities to develop this domestic renewable resource will continue to arise. hospitals. 2004. NREL/TP-500 40482." Stillwater. renewable resources provide an opportunity to boost the local economy significantly. KS: Black & Veatch. Blair. R. relocating or expanding existing industries can give businesses opportunities to meet many of the material needs associated with wind technology manufacturing. CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The United States is a prime location for developing wind resources and new wind manufacturing facilities. Golden. and facility operation.html. installation.7 Conclusion As a nation. C. tax revenues from wind plants help to fund local schools. Hand. and government services. Wind Manufacturing Capacity and Critical Resources.. 20 % Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource. however. High Wind Penetration Impact on U. Washington. and M. G. 2006. Inc.. Wind plants offer employment during construction and continue to support permanent jobs during operation. (MIG) www.8 References Laxson.C. "IMPLAN Professional Software. 210 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S. R. et al. With advancements in wind technologies and increasing demand for electricity projected.. At the same time. DC: Renewable Energy Policy Project (REPP). Actions toward this goal. Pletka. In many areas of the country. 2007. C Sterzinger.com/software. and N. M. Today. offer residents and businesses in the rural and urban United States potential for economic development opportunities and potential for employment. MN: Minnesota IMPLAN Group. O'Connell.
The final version of this document was prepared by the U. Reviewers did not help to draft the chapters they reviewed. Authors are shown in bold. Robert Gates Clipper Windpower Robert Gramlich American Wind Energy Association Thomas O.S. Department of Energy. Department of Energy Edgar DeMeo* Renewable Energy Consulting Services. workshop participation. task force members are underlined. Their contributions and support were important throughout the development of this report. and task force chairpersons are identified with an asterisk. Members of the following advisory group supplied strategic guidance: Rashid Abdul Mitsubishi Power Systems Stan Calvert U. Their participation is not meant to imply that they or their respective organizations either agree or disagree with the findings of the effort. Charles Smith Utility Wind Integration Group Randall Swisher American Wind Energy Association Robert Thresher National Renewable Energy Laboratory James Walker enXco *Also provided management and logistic support under subcontract to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory D Individual chapters were prepared and reviewed by the following teams. Contributions included strategic planning and guidance.Appendix D.S. Gray American Wind Energy Association Steven Lindenberg U. and management oversight. Department of Energy would like to acknowledge the authors and reviewers listed below. Inc. Many participants contributed in several of these capacities. chapter writing. Reviewers are shown in italics. This technical report is the culmination of contributions from more than 90 individuals and more than 50 organizations over 15 months beginning in June 2006. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 211 .S. topical task force participation. Department of Energy James Lyons GE Global Research Brian McNiff McNiff Light Industries Bentham Paulos Energy Foundation Bonnie Ram* Energetics Incorporated Janet Sawin Worldwatch Institute Brian Smith National Renewable Energy Laboratory J. Participants in the 20% Wind Scenario The U. report review. management and coordination.S.
Inc.Chapter 1. American Wind Energy Association Global Energy Concepts. National Renewable Energy Laboratory American Wind Energy Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory Energetics Incorporated National Renewable Energy Laboratory Chapter 2. Manufacturing. LLC National Renewable Energy Laboratory Consultant National Renewable Energy Laboratory enXco GE Energy Sandia National Laboratories Mitsubishi U. Department of Commerce American Wind Energy Association Apollo Alliance National Renewable Energy Laboratory Sandia National Laboratories enXco Massachusetts Institute of Technology McNiff Light Industries 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Apollo Alliance TPI Composites U. Wind Turbine Technology Michael Robinson* Paul Veers Sandy Butterfield Jim Greene Walter Musial Robert Thresher Edgar DeMeo Robert Gramlich Robert Poore Scott Schreck Alison Silverstein Brian Smith James Walker Lawrence Willey Jose Zayas Rashid Abdul Jim Ahlgrimm James Lyons Amir Mikhail National Renewable Energy Laboratory Sandia National Laboratories National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy Consulting Services. Department of Energy GE Global Research Clipper Windpower Chapter 3.S. and Impacts on the Nation's Economy Lawrence Willey* Corneliu Barbu Maureen Hand Edgar DeMeo Kate Gordon Steve Lockard Brian O'Hanlon Elizabeth Salerno Brian Siu Brian Smith Paul Veers James Walker Stephen Connors Brian McNiff D 212 GE Energy GE Energy (formerly) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy Consulting Services. Inc. Inc. Material Resources. Gray Maureen Hand Bonnie Ram Brian Smith American Wind Energy Association American Wind Energy Association Consultant Energetics Incorporated Renewable Energy Consulting Services.S. Overview of the 20% Wind Scenario Elizabeth Salerno Robert Gramlich Alison Silverstein Paget Donnelly Edgar DeMeo Larry Flowers Thomas O.
Electric Reliability Council of Texas Public Service Company of New Mexico Puget Sound Energy Western Area Power Administration Electric Power Research Institute American Electric Power National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Xcel Energy American Wind Energy Association Oak Ridge National Laboratory American Wind Energy Association Edison Electric Institute National Renewable Energy Laboratory Midwest Independent System Operator U. enXco Horizon Wind Energy Resolve Greenpeace Renewable Energy Consulting Services. Natural Resources Defense Council Union of Concerned Scientists Worldwatch Institute Consultant enXco Consultant 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 213 .S. Department of Energy (formerly) D Chapter 5. Wind Power Siting and Environmental Effects Laurie Jodziewicz* Bonnie Ram James Walker Wayne Walker Abby Arnold John Coequyt Edgar DeMeo Nathanael Greene Alan Nogee Janet Sawin Alison Silverstein Tom Weis American Wind Energy Association Energetics Inc. Lehr Charles Linderman Michael Milligan Dale Osborn Philip Overholt Brian Parsons Richard Piwko Steve Ponder Craig Quist Kristine Schmidt Matthew Schuerger Alison Silverstein Beth Soholt John Stough Robert Thomas Gary Thompson Robert Zavadil Ellen Lutz Utility Wind Integration Group American Wind Energy Association WindLogics American Wind Energy Association U.Chapter 4.S.S. Inc. LLC Consultant Wind on the Wires AEP Cornell University Nebraska Public Power District EnerNex U. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory GE Energy Sierra Pacific Resources PacifiCorp Xcel Energy Energy Systems Consulting Services.S. Electric System J. DOE Retired Los Angeles Department of Water and Power National Grid USA Renewable Energy Consulting Services. Inc. Charles Smith* Robert Gramlich Mark Ahlstrom Jeff Anthony Jack Cadogan James Caldwell Henri Daher Edgar DeMeo Ken Donohoo Abraham Ellis Douglas Faulkner Robert Fullerton Stephen Gehl Jay Godfrey John Holt Karen Hyde Mike Jacobs Brendan Kirby Ronald L. Transmission and Integration into the U.
Lehr David Olsen Brent Alderfer Jeff Anthony Lori Bird Lisa Daniels Trudy Forsyth Robert Gough Steven Lindenberg Walter Musial Kevin Rackstraw Roby Robichaud Susan Sloan Tom Wind Bob Anderson Ruth Baranowski Edgar DeMeo Robert Fullerton Robert Gramlich Karen Hyde Bonnie Ram Kristine Schmidt Michael Skelley Brian Smith Dennis Lin Roby Roberts Wayne Walker D National Renewable Energy Laboratory American Wind Energy Association Center for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Technologies Community Energy American Wind Energy Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory Windustry National Renewable Energy Laboratory Intertribal Council on Utility Policy U. Wind Power Markets The contributions of this Task Force (Markets and Stakeholders) spanned a broad spectrum of issues and are reflected in many of the chapters in this report. Department of Energy Goldman Sachs Horizon Wind Energy Appendices A. B. Western Area Power Administration American Wind Energy Association Xcel Energy Energetics Incorporated Xcel Energy Horizon Wind Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory U. Department of Energy American Wind Energy Association Wind Utility Consulting Bob Anderson Consulting National Renewable Energy Laboratory Renewable Energy Consulting Services.S. Larry Flowers* Ronald L. B. B) Suzanne Tegen (C) Mark Bolinger (A) Dennis Elliott (B) Ray George (B) Marshall Goldberg (C) Donna Heimiller (B) Tracy Hern (A) Bart Miller (A) Ric O'Connell (A. Department of Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Clipper Windpower U. and C and Supporting Analysis Task Force Maureen Hand* (A.S.Katherine Kennedy Jim Lindsay Laura Miner Robert Thresher Natural Resources Defense Council (formerly) Florida Power & Light Company U.S.S. C) Nate Blair (A. Department of Energy (formerly) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Chapter 6. Inc. B) 214 National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory MRG Associates National Renewable Energy Laboratory Western Resource Advocates Western Resource Advocates Black & Veatch 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
These participants are listed below: Aaron Brickman Jennifer DeCesaro Michael Fry Matt Gadow Stephen Gehl David Hamilton John Holt Robert Hornung Karen Hyde Ed Ing Debra Jacobson Miles Keogh Charles Linderman Steve Lockard U. Previously. Department of Commerce Clean Energy Group American Bird Conservancy DMI Industries Electric Power Research Institute Sierra Club National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Canadian Wind Energy Association Xcel Energy Law Office of Edwin T.S.Marc Schwartz (B) Ryan Wiser (A) Jeff Anthony Steven Clemmer Edgar DeMeo Robert Gramlich Christopher Namovicz Elizabeth Salerno Alison Silverstein Brian Smith Ian Baring-Gould Jack Cadogan Eric Gebhardt Gary Jordan Brian Parsons Ryan Pletka Walter Short Martin Tabbita Hanson Wood Michael DeAngelis Alejandro Moreno National Renewable Energy Laboratory Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory American Wind Energy Association Union of Concerned Scientists Renewable Energy Consulting Services. DOE Retired GE Energy GE Energy National Renewable Energy Laboratory Black & Veatch National Renewable Energy Laboratory GE Energy enXco Sacramento Municipal Utility District U. reviewers. American Wind Energy Association U. C. At the second.S. Many of the authors. Inc. Some also reviewed sections of the report. attendees developed the initial statement of the 20% Wind Scenario and defined work plans. DOE Energy Information Administration American Wind Energy Association Consultant National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory U. Department of Energy Workshops and Outreach Two strategic workshops took place during the course of this work. 2006. 2006. held November 9–10. these individuals had been external to the effort. Ing DJ Consulting National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Edison Electric Institute TPI Composites 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version D 215 . participants shared and discussed preliminary results and obtained input from a group of invited individuals from key stakeholder sectors. The invited participants at the November workshop brought along important feedback and perspectives from their respective sectors that have helped to shape this report.S. Their participation is not meant to imply that they or their respective organizations either agree or disagree with the findings of the effort.S. held August 17–18. At the first of these. and task force members listed in this appendix attended one or both of these workshops.
Participants discussed the early findings of the Environment and Siting Task Force and offered insights into issues important to their organizations. a topical outreach workshop was held with representatives from nongovernmental organizations concerned about wildlife conservation and the environment. These functions will continue beyond release of this report.S. Their participation is not meant to imply that they or their respective organizations either agree or disagree with the findings of the effort. Gray Susan Williams Sloan Peggy Welsh 216 Clipper Windpower Clipper Windpower American Wind Energy Association American Wind Energy Association Energetics Incorporated 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .S. Department of Energy. Members of this task force include Mary McCann-Gates* Jill Pollyniak* Thomas O.S. 2006. Energy Information Administration Union of Concerned Scientists Natural Resources Defense Council Xcel Energy U.Craig Mataczynski Christopher Namovicz Alan Nogee Jim Presswood Kristine Schmidt Linda Silverman Brian Siu Kate Watson Renewable Energy Systems Americas U. Department of Energy Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies Energetics Incorporated Greenpeace National Renewable Energy Laboratory enXco Horizon Wind Energy National Wildlife Federation enXco Energetics Incorporated Union of Concerned Scientists The Communications and Outreach Task Force advised on outreach strategy and facilitated engagement of key stakeholders. Department of Energy Apollo Project Horizon Wind Energy On November 28. Matthew Banks Laura Bies Brent Blackwelder John Coequyt Amy Delach Tom Franklin Michael Fry Robert Gramlich Tony Iallonardo Laurie Jodziewicz Katie Kalinowski Katherine Kennedy Betsy Loyless Laura Miner Amber Pairis Cliff Scher Kate Smolski Robert Thresher James Walker Wayne Walker Tim Warman Tom Weis Peggy Welsh Marchant Wentworth D World Wildlife Fund The Wildlife Society Friends of the Earth Greenpeace Defenders of Wildlife Izaak Walton League American Bird Conservancy American Wind Energy Association National Audubon Society American Wind Energy Association Resolve/National Wind Coordinating Collaborative Natural Resources Defense Council National Audubon Society U. Workshop attendees are listed below.
Graphics Lead Energetics Incorporated.Document Coordination. Team Manager Energetics Incorporated Energetics Incorporated Energetics Incorporated. Members of this team include Bonnie Ram Cliff Scher Russell Raymond Julie Chappell Tommy Finamore Susan Kaczmarek Kathleen O'Dell Donna Heimiller Energetics Incorporated. Lead Editors and Other Contributions including managing report production/editing. and developing graphics and Web site materials. Cover Graphic Energetics Incorporated. Document Coordinator National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory D 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 217 .
D 218 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
Participants in the program receive allocated allowances that represent a certain amount of pollutant and must purchase allowances from other businesses to emit more than their given allotment. Capacity: The amount of electrical power delivered or required for which manufacturers rate a generator. the capacity penetration would be 20% × 0. Cap and trade: An established policy tool that creates a marketplace for emissions.000-MW peak load. transformer. The overall aim of the method is to estimate the state of the environment before and after any change and the specific objectives is to compare changes at reference sites (or control sites) with the actual area of impact. divided by the amount of energy that would have been produced if the plant had been running at full capacity during that same time interval. or system. For example. For example. E Capital costs: The total investment cost for a power plant. The capacity penetration is related to the energy penetration by the ratio of the system load factor to the wind plant capacity factor. In this case. and loads within the metered boundaries of the balancing authority. Bus-bar: The point at which power is available for transmission. turbine. transmission. and with an energy penetration of 20%. Balancing area (balancing authority area): The collection of generation.Appendix E. taking into account the effects of frequency deviations. generating station. or other electrical apparatus can carry under specified conditions for a given period of time without exceeding approved limits of temperature and stress.6/0. Capability: The maximum load that a generating unit. if a 300-megawatt (MW) wind plant is operating in a zone with a 1. station. calculated as the amount of energy that the power plant produces over a set time period. the capacity penetration is 30%. Glossary Area control error (ACE): The instantaneous difference between net actual and scheduled interchange. Capacity factor (CF): A measure of the productivity of a power plant. Capacity penetration: The ratio of the nameplate rating of the wind plant capacity to the peak load.4. Before-and-after control impact (BACI): A schematic method used to trace environmental effects from substantial anthropogenic changes to the environment. including auxiliary costs. Under a cap and trade program. the government regulates the aggregate amount of a type of emissions by setting a ceiling or cap. Most wind power plants operate at a capacity factor of 25% to 40%. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 219 . Bus: An electrical conductor that serves as a common connection for two or more electrical circuits. or 30%. transmission circuit. say that the system load factor is 60% and the wind plant capacity factor is 40%. The balancing authority maintains load-resource balance within this area.
E Electricity generation: The process of producing electricity by transforming other forms or sources of energy into electrical energy. also nuclear fuel. Dispatch: The physical inclusion of a generator's output onto the transmission grid by an authorized scheduling utility. but poisonous combustible gas. noncombustible gas present in the atmosphere. This comprises one cycle. For example. Carbon monoxide is produced during the incomplete combustion of carbon and carbon compounds. then back down to zero. if adding 100 MW of wind could meet an increase of 20 MW of system load at the target reliability level. and by the gradual oxidation of organic matter in the soil. governed by a board of directors and subject to oversight by the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Texas Legislature. Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ): A mechanism of the renewable portfolio standard in Texas designed to ensure that the electricity grid is extended to prime wind energy areas. Circuit: An interconnected system of devices through which electrical current can flow in a closed loop. Effective load-carrying capability (ELCC): The amount of additional load that can be served at the target reliability level by adding a given amount of generation. the turbine would have an ELCC of 20 MW. See also "Electric Reliability Council of Texas" and "renewable portfolio standard. wires.Carbon dioxide (CO2): A colorless. such as an electrical wire. the current flows in one direction from zero to a maximum voltage. ERCOT is a membership-based 501(c)(6) nonprofit corporation. It is formed by the combustion of carbon and carbon compounds (such as fossil fuels and biomass). and transformers that run between a high-voltage transmission substation and a customer's point of connection. The standard frequency for AC electricity in the United States is 60 cycles. then to a maximum voltage in the opposite direction. Electricity is measured in kilowatthours. which is a slow form of combustion in animals and plants. Cycle: In AC electricity. Conventional fuel: Coal. odorless. such as the fossil fuels coal and petroleum. odorless. Distribution usually refers to the series of power poles. Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT): One of the 10 regional reliability councils of the North American Electric Reliability Council. or a capacity value of 20% of its nameplate value. ERCOT manages the flow of electric power to approximately 20 220 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Distribution: The process of distributing electricity. The number of complete cycles per second determines the frequency of the current. oil. and natural gas (fossil fuels). CO2 is a greenhouse gas that contributes to global climate change. by respiration. Carbon monoxide (CO): A colorless." Conductor: The material through which electricity is transmitted. The designation of these areas directs the Electric Reliability Council of Texas to develop plans for transmission lines to these areas that will connect them with the grid.
CO2. These fundamentally technical documents contain the rules governing the operations. which is instantaneous capability. equal to one million kilowatts. and development of the transmission system and the coordination of the actions of all users of the transmission system. Energy can be converted into different forms. Green power: A popular term for energy produced from renewable energy resources. where that consequence affects others beyond the immediate economic actors and cannot be limited to those actors. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 221 . Energy penetration: The ratio of the amount of energy delivered from one type of resource to the total energy delivered. Generator: A device for converting mechanical energy to electrical energy. maintenance. See also "power grid" and "utility grid. Greenhouse effect: The heating effect that results when long-wave radiation from the sun is trapped by greenhouse gases produced by natural and human activities." Energy: The capacity for work. Feed-in law: A legal obligation on utilities to purchase electricity from renewable sources. See also "North American Electric Reliability Council. Greenhouse gases (GHGs): Gases such as water vapor. if 200 megawatt-hours (MWh) of wind energy supplies 1. representing 85% of the state's electric load and 75% of the Texas land area. Global warming: A term used to describe the increase in average global temperatures caused by the greenhouse effect. These gases contribute to the greenhouse effect. wind's energy penetration is 20%. For example. E Grid: A common term that refers to an electricity transmission and distribution system." Grid codes: Regulations that govern the performance characteristics of different aspects of the power system. and lowlevel ozone that are transparent to solar radiation.000 MWh of energy consumed. but opaque to long-wave radiation. Frequency: The number of cycles through which an alternating current passes per second.million customers in Texas. Externality: A consequence that accompanies an economic transaction. methane. Gigawatt (GW): A unit of power. Gearbox: A system of gears in a protective casing used to increase or decrease shaft rotational speed. Feed-in laws can also dictate the price that renewable facilities receive for their electricity. Gigawatt-hour (GWh): A unit or measure of electricity supply or consumption of one million kilowatts over a period of one hour. including the behavior of wind plants during steadystate and dynamic conditions. but the total amount of energy remains the same. measured in hertz.
and generator of a wind turbine. Lift: The force that pulls a wind turbine blade.000 kilowatt-hours or 1 million watt-hours. The requirement originates at the consumer's energy-consuming equipment. Megawatt-hour (MWh): A unit or energy or work equal to1. which is instantaneous capability equal to 1.000 kilowatts or 1 million watts. Met tower: A meteorological tower erected to verify the wind resource found within a certain area of land. With the passage of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The goal of the practice is to ensure that generators are producing neither too little nor too much energy to supply the utility's customers. Load (electricity): The amount of electrical power delivered or required at any specific point or points on a system. Investment tax credit (ITC): A tax credit that can be applied for the purchase of equipment such as renewable energy systems. For solar. Load following: A utility's practice in which more generation is added to available energy supplies to meet moment-to-moment demand in the utility's distribution system. Megawatt (MW): The standard measure of electricity power plant generating capacity. Kilowatt-hour (kWh): A unit or measure of electricity supply or consumption of 1. Note: Heat rates can be expressed as either gross or net heat rates. One megawatt is equal to 1. drivetrain. or in which generating facilities are kept informed of load requirements. fuel cells. Leading edge: The surface part of a wind turbine blade that first comes into contact with the wind. wind. Instantaneous penetration: The ratio of the wind plant output to load at a specific point in time. federal system through which businesses can recover investments in certain property through depreciation deductions over an abbreviated asset lifetime. Commonly stated as British thermal units (Btu) per kilowatt-hour. E Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS): A U. Load factor: The ratio of the average load to peak load during a specified time interval. 222 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version . Nacelle: The cover for the gearbox. Heat rates are typically expressed as net heat rates. and solar hybrid lighting technologies became classified as five-year property as well. depending whether the electricity output is gross or net generation.000 watts over a period of one hour. microturbines. Kilowatt (kW): A standard unit of electrical power. the current MACRS property class is five years. or over a short period of time.000 watts.S.Heat rate: A measure of the thermal efficiency of a generating station. and geothermal property placed in service after 1986.
Originally enacted as part of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. E Radioactive waste: Materials remaining after producing electricity from nuclear fuel. Production tax credit (PTC): A U. The rate of change in output from a power plant. PURPA contains measures designed to encourage the conservation of energy. 2004 and was then extended through December 31. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 223 .Nameplate rating: The maximum continuous output or consumption in MW of an item of equipment as specified by the manufacturer. more efficient use of resources. federal. Radioactive waste can damage or destroy living organisms if it is not stored safely. These entities file with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for status as a power marketer. Power Purchase Agreement (PPA): A long-term agreement to buy power from a company that produces electricity. See also "utility grid. Nitrogen oxides (NOx): The products of all combustion processes formed by the combination of nitrogen and oxygen. expired at the end of 2003. NOx and sulfur dioxide (SO2) are the two primary causes of acid rain. These measures included suggested retail rate reforms and new incentives for production of electricity by cogenerators and users of renewable resources. Ramp rate: The rate at which load on a power plant is increased or decreased. Public Utility Commission: A governing body that regulates the rates and services of a utility. was renewed on October 4. was extended in March 2002. per-kilowatt-hour tax credit for electricity generated by qualified energy resources. such as weather variations. but take ownership of the electricity and are involved in interstate trade.S. Power grid: A common term that refers to an electricity transmission and distribution system. Power marketers do not usually own generating or transmission facilities. and equitable rates. 2008. the credit expired at the end of 2001. Nondispatchable: The timing and level of power plant output generally cannot be closely controlled by the power system operator. Other factors beyond human control. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act (PURPA) of 1978: As part of the National Energy Act. Power: The rate of production or consumption of energy. play a strong role in determining plant output. Power quality: Stability of frequency and voltage and lack of electrical noise on the power grid." Power marketers: Business entities engaged in buying and selling electricity.
Turbine: A term used for a wind energy conversion device that produces electricity. Through the initiative.g. as opposed to electrical capacity measured in megawatts. a certain percentage of a utility's overall or new generating capacity or energy sales must be derived from renewable resources (e. Utility grid: A common term that refers to an electricity transmission and distribution system. solar. Restructuring: The process of changing the structure of the electric power industry from a regulated guaranteed monopoly to an open competition among power suppliers. See also "power grid. The two primary sources of acid rain are SO2 and NOx. An RPS most commonly refers to electricity sales measured in megawatt-hours. Trade wind: The consistent system of prevailing winds occupying most of the tropics. each qualified renewable energy producer has two income streams—one from the sale of the energy produced. Renewable energy credit (REC) or certificate: A mechanism created by a state statute or regulatory action to make it easier to track and trade renewable energy. geothermal. A single REC represents a tradable credit for each unit of energy produced from qualified renewable energy facilities. thus separating the renewable energy's environmental attributes from its value as a commodity unit of energy. The trades. and one from the sale of the RECs. Solar energy: Electromagnetic energy transmitted from the sun (solar radiation). Sophisticated power control systems are 224 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .Renewable energy: Energy derived from resources that are regenerative or that cannot be depleted. Sulfur dioxide (SO2): A colorless gas released as a by-product of combusted fossil fuels containing sulfur. the states will develop a regional strategy to control GHGs." Variable-speed wind turbines: Turbines in which the rotor speed increases and decreases with changing wind speeds. biomass. 1% of electric sales must be from renewable energy in the year 200x). The RECs can be sold and traded and their owners can legally claim to have purchased renewable energy. which constitute the major component of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Fundamental to the agreement is the implementation of a multistate cap and trade program to induce a market-based emissions controlling mechanism. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI): An agreement among 10 northeastern and mid-Atlantic states to reduce CO2 emissions." E Turbulence: A swirling motion of the atmosphere that interrupts the flow of wind. Under a REC regime. and moving water. See also "wind turbine. blow northeasterly in the northern hemisphere and southeasterly in the southern hemisphere.. Rotor: The blades and other rotating components of a wind turbine. Trade winds. are the most persistent wind system on Earth. Renewable portfolio standard (RPS): Under such a standard. Types of renewable energy resources include wind. as they are sometimes called.
Wind power class: A scale for classifying wind power density. Wind turbine: A term used for a device that converts wind energy to electricity. E Wind turbine rated capacity: The amount of power a wind turbine can produce at its rated wind speed. Wind speed: The rate of flow of wind when it blows undisturbed by obstacles. Voltage: The amount of electromotive force. Volt (V): A unit of electrical force." Wind power density: A useful way to evaluate the wind resource available at a potential site. Windmill: A wind energy conversion system that is used primarily to grind grain. Watt-hour (Wh): A unit of electricity consumption of one watt over the period of one hour." Wind generator: A wind energy conversion system designed to produce electricity. Wind energy: Energy generated by using a wind turbine to convert the mechanical energy of the wind into electrical energy. measured in watts per square meter. between two points. The wind's movement is caused by the sun's heat. See also "wind power. See also "wind energy. Watt (W): A unit of power. In general.required on variable-speed turbines to ensure that their power maintains a constant frequency compatible with the grid. sites with a wind power class rating of 4 or higher are now preferred for large-scale wind plants. The wind power density. Wind speed profile: A profile of how the wind speed changes at different heights above the surface of the ground or water. Windmill is commonly used to refer to all types of wind energy conversion systems. the earth. indicates the amount of energy available at the site for conversion by a wind turbine. Wind resource assessment: The process of characterizing the wind resource and its energy potential for a specific site or geographical area. 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version 225 . ranging from 1 (lowest wind power density) to 7 (highest wind power density). which force air to rise and fall in cycles. Wind power: Power generated by using a wind turbine to convert the mechanical power of the wind into electrical power. Wind: Moving air. and the oceans. Wind power plant: A group of wind turbines interconnected to a common utility system. measured in volts. There are seven wind power classes.
E 226 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
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E 228 20% Wind Energy by 2030 – Prepublication Version .
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