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Jan 6, 2014 8:47 AM
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The science of predicting football results
A statistician explains some mathematical models behind predicting results of international soccer games and risks his reputation by trying to guess the winners of the 2010 World Cup. Download the article as a PDF to see the equations and simulation results table.
Predicting football results is a rapidly growing area of academic interest. Economists use models to assess the efficiency of betting markets, operational researchers use models to experiment with the various effects of tournament design, and statisticians showcase their proficiency with advanced statistical techniques by modelling the intricacies of football data.
It is not, of course, just academics who are mining the archives of football scores. Bookmakers live and breathe football prediction models - as do the more committed flutterers. Mistakes cost money and jobs, whilst finding a small advantage can carry great rewards.
Betting markets
In academia, the most common application of football forecasting models is to test for betting market efficiency. The Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) is a cornerstone of financial theory and, in its simplest form, states that an investor should not be able to consistently obtain returns above the average. Finding a forecasting model of football that can generate better-than-average - or even positive - returns usually results in a publication for the academic as an example of a violation of the EMH, but the proprietary nature of the models means that the published ones rarely (if ever) represent the very best models, and even less often generate positive returns consistently.
The best performing models are the reserve of the gambling industry. It is paramount for a bookmaker to set odds at a value that realistically represent the probabilities of a match being won, drawn or lost. If the bookmaker fails to do this, it will risk huge losses.
For instance, Asian bookmakers would think nothing of taking an individual bet of US$200,000 - and regularly receive bets of $400,000 - and a typical weekend in the English Premier League typically attracts $500m turnover in Asia. With such tides of cash being wagered, it is not surprising that bookmakers make use of every possible tool at their disposal - one of them being mathematical models.
A mathematical model is not typically used on its own to set odds. An expert odds-setter is employed to adjust the model-generated odds given any extra information. For example, a typical model might take into account recent results of a team and each team's position in the league only. The odds-setter will then adjust these predicted odds to account for, say, an injury to a star player.
On the other side of the market, are the bettors. Specialist companies offer services to advise clients which bets to make. Maciej Jarowek is a betting consultant for AsianConnect88.com, a betting broker. I asked him for his thoughts on the use of mathematics in the industry. As a bookmaker does, he uses a model to give him a starting point and then adjusts the odds as he sees fit.
Jarowek is an expert on Polish football, and when he finds a discrepancy between his odds and those of the bookmakers, he can choose whether the discrepancy is enough to advise placing a bet. He says the biggest advantage professional gamblers have over the bookmaker is that they do not have to bet on every match - they can pick and choose. Given that Jarowek is one of many professional gamblers working for AsianConnect88.com, and that there are numerous such agencies in operation, it appears there is considerable scope for beating the market.
Compared with other sports, the result of a football match is relatively difficult to predict. Some academics believe this is one of the sources of the popularity of football - fans never really know the outcome of a match before it has happened making watching the game an exciting proposition.
Pundits make careers based on this uncertainty of outcome and spend endless hours contemplating each and every possible event in a match. There are countless upsets in domestic football every weekend, and the World Cup throws up its fair share of giant-killings. Given this inherent unpredictability, how can we make predictions?
There are two broad approaches to modelling football match outcomes. First, one can predict the result directly - whether the result will be a win, a draw or a loss. In this case, the outcome (win, loss, draw) is an ordinal variable (a win is better than a draw which is better than a loss). The model of choice here is an ordinal regression one, such as ordered probit. The output from such a model is the probability of each outcome, so that for an upcoming match one can use the model to calculate the probability of a win, draw or loss.
The second approach for modelling a match outcome is an indirect method where the analyst models the exact score of the game. In this case, the analyst estimates the probability of each possible number of goals scored by each team. One can then infer the probability of a team winning, drawing or losing the match by summing the relevant exact score probabilities.
An ordered probit
Evidence suggests very little difference in performance of each approach in modelling match outcome. Here, I build a model of the first type, namely an 'ordered probit' model.
The ordered probit model can be used to estimate the probability of the three outcomes of a match. To do this, it uses information on each team. For instance, it seems reasonable that a team that has won its last three matches has a higher probability of winning its next match than a team that has lost its last three matches. Similarly, a team that is ranked higher than the opposition has a higher probability of winning the match than does the lower-ranked team. The amount of the win probability changes, given these nuggets of information are governed by the model parameters. In a statistical model, the parameters are estimated to best explain what has happened in the past.
My model here is based on nearly 9,000 international match results over an eight-year period. The information and the effects on the probability of a team winning a match are:
- Venue - home/away or neutral. A team is more likely to win if at home;
- Distance from capital city to game location. A team is more likely to win the shorter the distance travelled (by fans and the team itself);
- Difference in world ranking between the teams. A higher ranked team is more likely to win;
- Change in world rankings for each team during the previous 12 months. An improving team is more likely to win;
- Type of match, namely: major tournament (World Cup or confederation championship), minor tournament (other FIFA- sanctioned one), qualifier or friendly. Better teams take major tournaments more seriously;
- Past match results. For each game, I use the previous eight results for each team (on average a national team plays eight matches in a 12-month period). In addition to the results, I know the world rankings for each of the eight opposition teams at the time of the game.
Using the information of past results needs a little extra thought. A 1-0 win for a team ranked 200 versus a team ranked 4 clearly represents a better performance than if the teams were ranked 200 and 198 respectively. As a consequence, the past results should be weighted relative to the result and relative to the strength of the opposition. A past performance metric (ppm), which captures this relationship, is given by the formula at the top (left) of this page.
This ppm goes from '-1' to '1', where '-1' represents the worst result possible - the top-ranked team losing to the bottom-ranked team - and '1' represents the worst-ranked team beating the best-ranked team. Note that 204 is the maximum value of the ranking of any team during the period under consideration. The past performance metric is plotted at the top (right) of this page.
(Sshhh - I predict the World Cup winner)
The ordered probit model described above can be used to estimate the probability of each outcome (win/draw/loss) in one match. A bookmaker might use these probabilities to help inform odds-setters, whilst a bettor might use them to assess whether a bet should be placed.
In order to predict the winner of the World Cup 2010, one needs to predict the winner of a series of matches. To do this, I use simulation, and have written code that uses the fitted model of match outcome to simulate the entire tournament. The World Cup starts with eight mini-leagues (groups) of four teams, playing each other once. The first- and second-placed teams in each group then progress to the knockout stages. This tournament structure affects the probability of a team winning.
For example, in the upcoming World Cup, the most likely teams to progress from Group G are Brazil and Portugal. The most likely team to win Group H is Spain. The winners (runners-up) of Group H then meet the runners-up (winners) of group G in the first knockout round. Thus Spain are almost guaranteed a difficult match in the first knockout round. Compare this to Group A favourites, France, who will most likely face the runner-up of Group B. Given Group B favourites, Argentina, are much stronger than the other teams in the group, France (and Argentina) are likely to have less difficult matches in the first knockout stage than Spain, Brazil and Portugal.
It is clear then, that predicting the winners of the tournament overall is not just a case of picking the best team. One needs to take into account the effect of the tournament structure. The results of 100,000 simulated tournaments are shown in the table, left.
Despite their seemingly difficult draws, Spain and Brazil are still first and second in terms of number of wins. The number of wins can easily be converted into a predicted probability of winning the tournament for each team which is shown in the third column of the table (left).
It is interesting to compare the predicted win probabilities with the FIFA World Rankings. France are big movers upwards - possibly because of their easier draw, whilst Portugal fall to ninth favourites, despite being the third-ranked team in the world.
Given that the most frequent use of such a model is to compare the probabilities with those of bookmakers, the fifth and sixth columns of the table give the odds and implied probabilities from Bet365, as at the date I made my predictions (14 May 2010). I have to admit, when I saw the similarities, I was pleased - it confirms the model and simulation exercise give sensible results. However, closer inspection reveals some discrepancies. Disclaimer time: Please note I do not suggest you use these odds to place a bet. The bookies really do know what they are doing and incorporate far more information I have used to inform their odds - they are also paid much more than I am for doing this sort of thing!
It appears the bookmakers think Spain and Brazil are more likely to win than I do, suggesting these are actually not good teams to back (at these odds). This might be because they are protecting themselves against the market which is keen to be on these teams - a similar story is true for England.
France, on the other hand, offers good value - the model suggests the probability of victory is nearly twice the probability assumed by the bookmaker. It will be hard to take for any Republic of Ireland fan, if France were to go on to win the World Cup, given that they were knocked out of the World Cup by France forward Thierry Henry's 21st-century spin on the 'hand of God' goal.
So here it is - I put my neck on the line (at least the model does) to give you some tips, based purely on statistics (not my opinion):
Spain are the tournament favourites, but may not offer value for money. (The more astute reader will recognise this as a bit of a politician's answer: if Spain win, I can say 'I told you they were favourites', whilst if they lose, I can say 'I told you they weren't a good bet - there was an 88.4 per cent probability of them not winning'!)
France to win is a good bet.
I also persuaded Jarowek to give me a tip:
Brazil not to win. (Typically reserved and cautious).
The model's predictions for the latter stages of the tournament are:
QF1: Holland vs Brazil
QF2: France vs England
QF3: Germany vs Argentina
QF4: Italy vs Spain
Semi-final line up:
SF1: Brazil vs France
SF2: Argentina vs Spain
Brazil vs. Spain
Pretty obvious really! I should say that, although my reputation as a statistician rests on these tips being reasonably good, I will be cheering on my native England no matter whom the opposition. I wait in anticipation for kick-off on 11 June...
Further information:
Download the article as a PDF to see the equations and simulation results table.
Hot tips: the E&T panel gives its World cup predictions
E&T has gathered a panel of four experts – people with a professional or personal interest in the science of predictions – to kindly stick their neck out and state who they judge will be involved at the latter stages of the tournament – and who, above all, will claim the cup.
Dr Ian McHale
Dr Ian McHale is a Senior Lecturer in Statistics at the University of Salford. His research interests include statistics in sports and the study of gambling markets. If he had known footballers and golfers earned so much money, he would have ignored his parents and concentrated less on maths at school and more on his sporting activities. Still, mathematical models no doubt came in handy for the predictions here.
Winner: Spain
Finalists: Spain and Brazil
Semi Finalists: Spain, Brazil, Argentina and France.
David Williams
David Williams is head of PR and official spokesman at Ladbrokes plc, a leading retail bookmaker in the UK, Ireland, Belgium and Spain with over 2,700 high-street betting shops. Ladbrokes' share of the global betting and gaming market brings in revenues of over £1bn, with £15bn worth of stakes placed with the company in 2009. Utilising state-of-the-art technology, Ladbrokes is able to react quickly to fluctuations in the global gambling market, and Williams tapped in to this technology to select his final four teams.
Winner: Spain
Finalists: Spain and Brazil
Semi Finalists: Spain, Brazil, England and Argentina
Chris Day
Goalkeeper Chris Day started his career at Tottenham Hotspur before moving to Crystal Palace and then to Watford under one-time England manager Graham Taylor. Spells with QPR, Oldham and Millwall followed before Day joined Stevenage Borough FC. Day has based his predictions on his football knowledge – including the surprise elimination of tournament favourites Spain, reasoning that the runner-up in Group G is likely to be Portugal, who would then give Spain a real test in the next match. With Ronaldo in their side, Portugal will be no pushovers.
Winner: Brazil
Finalists: Brazil and Argentina
Semi Finalists: Brazil, Argentina, England and Holland
Laura Daligan
'Psychic, artist and pin-up' Laura Daligan specialises in tarot card readings and dream interpretations. She is also a colour healer, using her artistic skills to help people find the right colours for their wardrobes, homes and personal style. "I feel England will do well," she says. "As semi finalists, I am getting England, Brazil; Argentina will do well but their game is not stable. Spain will also do well. I'm getting an already-established world cup team, the colour red and a macho manager for the winning team. That suggests Spain. Korea and Japan will also have some interesting games."
Winner: Spain
Finalists: Brazil and Spain
Semi Finalists: England, Brazil, Argentina and Spain
How did they do?
When the World Cup kicks off on 11 June, so will the E&T World Cup blog. Visit the blog to see all four experts on our panel pit their skills against one game a day, from the opening match through to the final. Follow the action online and see how they do. Why not join in and make your own prediction?
All predictions are for entertainment only. Any mortgages lost or other sums squandered based on the information supplied are the reader's own responsibility.
|To start a discussion topic about this article, please log in or register.
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Americans eventually face the consequences of horrors they allow to happen, but there is no worse horror than to force a mentally ill person into prison. Prison is for punishing those who can follow rules and control their behavior. The criminally insane are sick and cannot be expected to conform. Yet, according to an April 8 Mother Jones article, 356,268 mentally ill inmates are in prisons where horrific levels of punishment, abuse and neglect go on. This is a record high number.
The Treatment Advocacy Center (TAC) released a landmark state-by-state survey of laws that govern the treatment of mentally ill inmates. One major finding was that closing state psychiatric facilities caused the problems. Also, prison officials are compelled to provide intensive treatment when it is needed. Finally there is more mental illness and the illness is becoming more severe.
Too many prison Inmates suffer from serious illnesses like bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. They have diseases of the brain that call for treatment just as heart diseases, cancers and epileptic disorders do. They should be in health care, not punitive prison facilities because they are sick people.
State psychiatric hospitals in the U.S. only hold about 35,000 out of an untold number of eligible inpatients. Outpatient care and social services support are also lacking or patients might not even commit crimes.
As a result, only about ten percent of severely or dangerously mentally ill people who are incarcerated are being held in the proper institutions. Among them are veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
The nation's worst nightmare happens when judges and prison authorities have only one track: Forcing mentally or emotionally incompetent prisoners into rules-based systems. Since they cannot follow rules very well, such prisoners remain incarcerated longer because of so-called "bad behavior."
Justice, jail and prison authorities are forced to push sick people into a punitive, rules based system without any ways to modify jail blocks into hospital wards. But how do those who work the the justice system justify thoughtless punitive policies being applied to all?
They do not. The TAC report says,
"Sheriffs, jail administrators, and others who were interviewed for the survey expressed compassion for inmates with mental illness and frustration with the mental health system that is failing them."
Combine an impossible setup with murders, assaults, torture, neglect and rape that are a regular fact of prison life. America's prisons cannot keep major gangs from carrying out nationwide operations, including street drug logistics and assassinations. There is little hope for a severely ill prisoner.
Mentally ill prisoners are disproportionately left in solitary confinement or are not properly monitored. Homeless, mentally ill Jerome Murdough was arrested for sleeping on the roof of a public housing building. He was taken to Rikers Island in New York. He was administered drugs and was left unmonitored in an overheated cell. He died in a way that was described as being "baked to death."
Prisons are for punishment, not medical care, and wardens have far too much authority to deny access and treatment, so getting the proper medications or monitoring is not a guarantee.
America can expect more cases of horrific self mutilation, even more "rule breaking," violent treatment and preventable death. It is time to turn more prison space into medical space and to return to laws that regulate confinement and treatment of mentally ill inmates.
The idea of changing punitive, rules based confinement to medical, treatment based confinement is not that difficult to comprehend. The time is now, because severe mental illness is on the rise.


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The quarterback and PGA Tour pro pairings at the 2014 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am are; Ricky Barnes with Tom Brady, Scott Langley with Peyton Manning, Brendon Todd with Alex Smith and Jerry Kelly with Aaron Rodgers. Accuracy is fundamental and we earlier inadvertently reported that Barnes and Manning were paired.
Just for the record here are tee times and golf courses for the quartet of featured quarterbacks for Friday and Saturday.
-Jerry Kelly and Aaron Rodgers, Friday at Monterey Penninsula 8:55 a.m., Saturday at Pebble Beach 8:00 a.m.
-Brendon Todd and Alex Smith, Friday at Monterey Penninsula 9:28 a.m., Saturday at Pebble Beach 8:33 a.m.
-Ricky Barnes and Tom Brady, Friday at Monterey Penninsula 10:01 a.m., Saturday at Pebble Beach 9:06 a.m.
-Scott Langley and Peyton Manning, Friday at Pebble Beach 9:17 a.m., Saturday at Spyglass Hill 8:22 a.m.


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Holder's Black History Speech Makes Waves
Attorney General Eric Holder, the first African-American to hold the post, delivered a fiery speech at the Justice Department to mark Black History Month. Slate legal analyst Dahlia Lithwick discusses the latest from the Justice Department with Alex Cohen.
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- " M e l a n c h o l i s t a n b u l "
- Innovative designs for Istanbul
- "Becoming Istanbul"
- Two new exhibitions at Istanbul Modern
- A special selection of Fikret Mualla's works
- Marble statues from Aphrodisias in Istanbul
- World's most spectacular musical comes to Istanbul
- 'Jazz Moods in the City' to start soon
- Special concert by Milva da Rossa
- Harlem Globetrotters in Turkey for three exhibitions!
- Legendary rock group R.E.M. in Istanbul
- Turkish Airlines, Europe's 7th biggest
- Deutsche Messe and Turkish Airlines Promotional Tour in Istanbul
- Shop&Miles continues to fly with Garanti
- Miles&Smiles members will be able to upgrade on 13 airlines
- AnadoluJet starts Hatay - North Cyprus flights
- Turkish Airlines third in Europe in inflight entertainment
- Turkish Airlines in Baghdad after 17 years...
Flying like Icarus
When dreams come true they suddenly become ordinary and lose their appeal. From the Icarus of Greek mythology to the Ottoman polymath Ahmet Çelebi, whose title Hezarfen means 'a thousand sciences', flying and the passionate dream of being able to fly have been synonymous with freedom.
But all this is history now, a matter of ancient myth and narratives of debatable truth value, because, thanks to science and technology and a few intrepid pioneers, everybody has been flying for ages, and nobody thinks he's a bird because of it.
Nevertheless, no matter where you go, that first flight is exciting. That feeling of leaving the earth and approaching the clouds, that experience, and the anxiety it inevitably entails, are something that everyone experiences sooner or later, and that is indelibly inscribed in the memory.
So, when did I first fly? Why? With whom? And what did I feel?
It was October 1961; I don't remember the exact date but it was my wedding day (Oh, this is what they call memory). A frantic rat race - the ones who've been through it know - indescribable. The preparations, the ceremony, the fatigue, the departure on the honeymoon... Our destination was Bursa, our transportation of choice a Turkish Airlines plane. Why a plane, you ask, when there was a bus? Well, we said, we're getting married for the first time, let's also try out this new vehicle known as the airplane for the first time. Were we excited? My wife was. Not me. We arrive at Yeşilköy and... Our plane... Well, it's not exactly a magnificent specimen, just a normal domestic flight aircraft, small but quite crowded. The most exciting part of flying for the first time is takeoff, becoming airborne, that sound (What sound? Just a sudden sound) and the ringing in the ears as the plane ascends.
Everything is going well, we are ascending. Holding hands, we look at each other and smile. So this is flying. What, in other words? All of a sudden lightning flashes nearby and a rumble of thunder approaches, the little plane lurches through the air and the passengers wear looks of consternation. The excitement mounts but is short-lived and in the end we arrive at Bursa in the rain, jump in a taxi and reach the Thermal Hotel where we change our clothes and make it in time to the Bursa gala of the film, 'Ankara Express'.
So went my first flight. As for subsequent ones, they were devoid of any excitement whatsoever but increasingly comfortable, familiar. Sometimes I thought the trip was too long, sometimes I even grumbled that it was too short. The airplanes were of all different makes and models, the airports all seemed familiar and the roads into the city center all alike. Flying? There's nothing special about it any more. Altitude, clouds, air pockets... And they are just for decor and special effects.


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"The retail banking sector occupies a critical corner on the Internet, and consumers place their financial livelihood in these companies every day," said Paul Veugen, CEO and founder of Usabilla. "These companies strive to deliver a pleasurable and secure online customer experience by embracing the importance of usability and user experience (UX). We decided to test and highlight these leading retail banking websites due to the level of trust that consumers place in them combined with the intrinsic customer-centric nature of the banking sector."
A total of 400 participants performed simple tasks, and gave feedback on the websites of eight leading retail banking websites. Participants who tested the sites were asked questions about what elements on each of the sites made them trust the bank, where to click to locate information about credit cards, where to click to find information about meeting with someone from their nearest branch about a mortgage, where to click on a page if their credit card was stolen, and what they would improve on each of the pages. The sites were then ranked for accuracy and the time it took users to locate the information on the website, and given a mean score. Chase ranked first or second in the majority of the usability tests, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo ranked last.
The major highlights are:
"Usabilla allows test users to share feedback in a simple, visual way that offers companies quick and meaningful insights into user experience at any stage of the website design process," added Veugen. "The participants in our visual surveys are vocal, and they reveal positive and negative aspects of personal retail banking sites that are easily overlooked when you look only at the numbers, and not at the attitudes or user behavior."
Download and read the full Usabilla User Experience Report on the retail banking sector at http://blog.usabilla.com/ux-banking-sector/.


text:
Assault Beast - CRMS-EN024 - Rare - 1st Edition
Out Of Stock$1.24
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Extra Info
Rarity: Rare
Card Type: Effect Monster
Passcode: 3431737
Monster Type: Beast-Warrior
Card Text: You can discard this card to the Graveyard to add 1 'Assault Mode Activate' from your deck to your hand.
Attribute: Earth
Level: 4
Set: Crimson Crisis
Card Number: CRMS-EN024
Card Rules: No rulings available for this card.
Name: Assault Beast
Edition: 1st


text:
The U.S. Navy formally kicked off a competition April 17 to develop and build an unmanned airplane that would operate from an aircraft carrier.
A draft request for proposals (RFP) for the Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance Strike (UCLASS) aircraft was sent to the four aviation companies that are already doing preliminary design work for the program, Navy spokeswoman Jamie Cosgrove said. The companies are Boeing, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. The RFP document was not publicly disclosed.
The draft solicitation will be followed by an industry day in about 30 to 45 days and a final RFP this summer, Cosgrove said. A contract award is expected in mid-fiscal year 2015. The Navy plans to pick one design to build, fly and deploy.
UCLASS is intended to perform intelligence-gathering, targeting and strike missions. To help pave the way for UCLASS, the Navy has conducted flights tests with the X-47B demonstrator, a bat-like, unmanned plane built by Northrop Grumman. The X-47B conducted its first night flight April 10 over Naval Air Station Patuxent River, Md.
SUBSCRIBE! To receive future articles by this writer, click "Subscribe" above. Follow him on Twitter.


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Once again we are approaching our season for winter sports. Within and around Yosemite National Park are many areas to enjoy this year's snow pack. Even though you may not be a seasoned skier and the thought of attempting those downhill ski runs at the local resorts, may not be within your comfort zone. I have a suggestion that will bring you back to the wilderness with less risk and more enjoyment.
In my previous articles attention is centered on old logging roads and forgotten railroad spurs. Both are excellent for cross-country skiing and snowshoeing. Last winter I drove to the snow-play area on Highway 41 located just before entering the west gate into Yosemite. This is an excellent area to test your snow skills on an old forestry road.
You can park at the east end of the parking area. Hike through the trees until you arrive to a old forestry road. There are many miles of flat to slight elevation increases along the roadway to test your skills. This road will have a few direction changes, so be alert and check your map at each fork. One fork leads to Fish Camp, another is called the Goat Mountain Loop and Buffin Meadow Trail. These trails are featured in a brochure called Goat Meadow cross-country ski trails. Brochures are available at the Yosemite Sierra Visitors Bureau on Highway 41 in Oakhurst.
If you are a skilled skier or snowshoe individual, you can explore beyond the east forestry gate into Yosemite. This trail is marked by snow markers elevated ten feet above ground level. Do be careful when crossing Big Creek. If the snow depth is over three feet, you may have difficulty climbing to the opposite bank.
From this point within an hour you should arrive at Mariposa Grove. Gauge your time; Mariposa Grove is worth the winter experience. When you see this pristine area after an overnight fresh snow fall, this is a memory you will cherish for a life-time. Time and distance is much shorter to return following the road to the west entrance gate into Yosemite. When I made this trip, we parked two vehicles, one at each the starting and ending areas. Total time was almost six hours to complete this snow trek. If time is important, park in the designated parking area just inside Yosemite's west entrance gate. Start your ski or snowshoe trek following the road into Mariposa Grove. This trip will be much shorter, with an average time of three hours.
The second area is within Yosemite National Park following Wawona Highway just past the entrance to Yosemite West. On the right is the Chinquapin parking area and trailhead. This trail leads to an old abandoned railroad spur engineered by the Yosemite Lumber Company between 1912 and 1923. This is another flat engineered area from our past logging history. The only difficult area may be from water erosion caused by time and Bishop Creek. You can follow this railroad line 6.7 miles before reaching the trailhead sign to Alder Creek. With less risk gauge your outing and plan your return at a comfortable turn-around point back to the original trailhead.
Keep in mind these trails are not supervised or regulated by state or private concerns. They are strictly wilderness adventures, so be careful. Whatever locations you cross-country ski or snowshoe always check with the local forestry ranger station for any changes that may affect your outing. Success is not only completing each adventure, but bringing back memories to share with family and friends.


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Caterpillar's Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year
At this rate, 2013 can't end soon enough for Caterpillar
The maker of heavy equipment reported downbeat quarterly report and a sour outlook Wednesday morning, as a plunge in demand for mining equipment continues to weigh on results.
Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of bulldozers, excavators and other earth-moving machinery, is in the midst of a big cost-cutting initiative and has implemented "general austerity measures across the company." Caterpillar's global work force is down 9% from a year ago, and capital spending this year is expected to be less than 2012.
Shares dropped 5.8% to $83.99, giving back much of Caterpillar's 8% rally over the past two weeks.
Caterpillar is down 6% year-to-date, compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 18% gain. The company is one of only two of the Dow's 30 components trading in negative territory for the year.
Just how challenging of an environment has this been for Caterpillar? MoneyBeat turned to John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, for clues.
For one, Caterpillar has reported declining profit figures in each of the past four quarters, Mr. Butters says. All four reports have missed analysts' expectations. And Wednesday marked the fourth time this year that Caterpillar has offered a profit forecast that has fallen short of analysts' targets.
Here's a look at the past four Caterpillar earnings stories the Journal has written in order to get a gauge for how Caterpillar executives have felt about their business and the overall economy:
Jan. 28
"We're encouraged by recent improvements in economic indicators, but remain cautious," said Chairman and Chief Executive Doug Oberhelman in a written statement. "While we expect some improvement in the U.S. economy, growth is expected to be relatively weak."
April 22
Caterpillar said 2013 will be "challenging year" for the company. It described global economic conditions as a "mixed picture," of slow, but steady, improvement, particularly in the United States and China. The company reiterated its January forecast calling for global economic growth of 2.5% in 2013, up from 2.3% in 2012.
"This is the first year in three years where we've seen relative stability around the world," Caterpillar Chairman and Chief Executive Doug Oberhelman said during an interview on CNBC.
July 24
Caterpillar officials said the profit plunge largely reflected a steep downturn in sales of mining equipment, a business that has shifted from boom to bust over the past year as miners cut costs in the face of weaker demand and prices for many commodities.
"We had an absolutely fabulous quarter a year ago," Mike DeWalt, Caterpillar's head of investor relations, said in a conference call with analysts. At that time, dealers were generally adding to their inventories in anticipation of growing sales. In the latest quarter, nervous dealers slashed inventories in the face of stalling demand. Caterpillar expects dealers to cut inventories further in the second half.
But those inventory cuts won't continue indefinitely, Mr. DeWalt said: "Dealers ought to be out of inventory pretty soon." Once dealers need to restock, Caterpillar expects its sales to snap back.
Oct. 23
"We're not finished and expect to take deeper actions to improve our cost structure," Doug Oberhelman, Caterpillar's chief executive, said in a prepared statement. The company said it was considering "rationalization" of some smaller facilities, more job cuts and consolidating management functions, among other things."


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Healthy Grilling
Register Now!
Wednesday, July 13, 2016 at 6:30 p.m.
Chef Michael Niksic will demonstrate healthy grilling with oils, marinades, and seasonings applied to vegetables and other animal proteins. Chef Niksic has opened or helped open over 22 restaurants of various cuisines and themes.
Recipes will be available and sample portions will be provided!


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Pooping into a petri dish is becoming standard practice as part of some college biology courses.
Leptin's Effects
June 2, 2014|
The hormone leptin, which signals fullness to animals, acts not only through neurons but through glia, too.
June 2, 2014|
The hormone leptin, which signals fullness to animals, acts not only through neurons but through glia, too.
June 1, 2014|
Using just three dopaminergic neurons, Drosophila larvae can sense whether a food source lacks a full roster of essential amino acids.
May 30, 2014|
A nonet of scientists, including researchers in nano-optics and in the neuroscience of memory, earned the 2014 Kavli prizes.
May 29, 2014|
Early humans may have made an evolutionary tradeoff, giving up muscular strength to fuel bigger brains.
May 27, 2014|
Nearly three years after Geron shuttered its stem cell program, BioTime receives funding to relaunch a Phase 1 trial for spinal cord injury.
May 24, 2014|
Gerald Edelman, who broke new ground in two distinct fields of life science, has passed away at age 84.
May 22, 2014|
Eliminating a pain receptor makes mice live longer and keeps their metabolisms young.
May 19, 2014|
Researchers image the electrical impulses of the C. elegans and zebrafish nervous systems.
May 16, 2014|
Antidepressant could prevent Alzheimer's plaques; 12,000-year-old human skeleton sequenced; disentangling the mystery of octopus arms; taking a look at the ocular microbiome
May 15, 2014|
Researchers uncover a self-recognition mechanism that prevents octopus limbs from becoming entangled, despite their powerful suction.


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At One World Trade, Condé Nast Faces the Unthinkable: CUBICLES
Dun dun DUNNNN.
Keith Kelly has a breathtaking scoop this morning: When Condé Nast moves into One World Trade after it opens in 2014, the magazine company's custom of giving lavish offices to its editors and executives will be curtailed. Instead, many of the employees will be forced out from behind glass doors and into cubicles.
So far, the design plans are not being shared with the staff. And for good reason. "I think it will be horribly received in many parts of the building," said one source, who noted that office space is deemed very precious in status-conscious Condé Nast. In the new layout that only a precious few have seen, far fewer will have glass offices. And even though just a few have seen the office-lite plans for 1 WTC, grumbling has already begun. "Newsrooms are all about speed and accuracy," said one Condé Nasty. "The kind of writing we do is much more involved with style. You need quiet."
Too bad you can't build walls out of ego.


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See what's bold and new at PSI
SC Johnson Donates 45,000 Units of OFF! Personal Repellent to PSI
Partnership will help protect women in Central AmericaRead More ›
Behind the Equity App: How Researchers Were Able to Balance Scientific Rigor with Ease-of-UseRead More ›
Keep it Simple
How do you get to SDG 3? Atul Gawande talks checklists, C-sections and primary care.Read More ›
Intimate Portraits of Resilience
A photographer captures the effort of women and girls to gain autonomy over their lives, minds and bodies.Read More ›
Changing the World with an Adolescent Mindset
Learn how taking risks and designing programs with teens can lead to healthier outcomes.Read More ›


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Climbing Gear – QUAD anchor
I consider a QUAD to be the best way to equalize a two bolt anchor. In this video I am showing a way of transferring from a QUAD to the rappel.
I've been using QUADs for two years after reading about it in a book written by Bob Gaines and John Long. For building a quad you'll need a 20 feet of thin high tech cord tied in a loop using triple fisherman — the following cords worked the best for me:
Edelweiss 5.5mm Aramid Cord
Strength: 18kN (4050 lbf)
Weight: 23 g/m
Diameter: 5.5mm
BlueWater 5 mm x 20′ Titan Cord
Diameter: 5.5mm
Grams Per Meter: 18.2
Tensile Strength: 3100 lbf.
Sterling Power Cord 6mm x 21′
6mm PowerCord is stronger than standard nylon, breaking at a astronomical 4800lb
WARNING: I am not a rock climbing instructor! Use this video and materials at your own risk. Hire a rock climbing guide to show you the proper way of using this equipment. Never clip all four strands of a QUAD — the 4th strand is there to ensure you don't slip of the anchor if one of the bolts fails.


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June 16, 2008
The Arthur A. Dugoni School of Dentistry named Jacob Yetzer valedictorian of the DDS class of 2008. Yetzer ranked first in a class of 139 dental students and was inducted into Omicron Kappa Upsilon, Tau Kappa Omega and Phi Kappa Phi honor societies for his scholastic achievements.
Yetzer also received the following graduation awards: Dean's Valedictorian Award, Alpha Omega International Dental fraternity Award, American Association of Oral Biologists Award, American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons Dental Student Award, Inesi Award in Physiology, Excellence in Oral Surgery Award and Herbert K. Yee Scholarship Award.
"I'm grateful for all that Pacific has done for me. I hope that I'll have the opportunity to pass on the learning experiences so many people on the Dugoni School faculty provided for me." Yetzer said.
While at the Arthur A. Dugoni School of Dentistry, he took an active role in student research and served as secretary for the school's Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Study Club. Yetzer received a bachelor's degree in exercise science from the University of Wisconsin.
Following graduation, Yetzer and his wife, Carly, will move to Jacksonville, Florida, where Yetzer will enter the oral and maxillofacial surgery residency program at University of Florida.
The Arthur A. Dugoni School of Dentistry named Tawfiq Alkilani valedictorian of the school's International Dental Studies class for achieving the highest overall grade point average in didactic and clinical courses during the two-year program for foreign-trained dentists.
Alkilani earned a bachelor's degree in dental surgery from University of Jordan, School of Dentistry in Amman, Jordan, prior to entering the IDS program at Pacific. Alkilani has received numerous accolades for his academic accomplishments, including being inducted into Omicron Kappa Upsilon and Tau Kappa Omega dental honor societies. Alkilani also received the Dean's Valedictorian Award, the F. Gene and Rosemary Dixon IDS Endowment Award and Herbert K. Yee Scholarship Award. During his time at Pacific, Alkilani was active in student government, including serving as president of his class.
"It has been a great blessing to be part of this educational institution," Alkilani said. "I am very grateful for all that I have learned and experienced here: from state-of-the art clinical dentistry techniques to leadership skills. The Dugoni School experience has been life-changing, and I'm looking forward to having the opportunity to give back to dental education and my community in the future."
After graduation, Alkilani, his wife, Jill, and stepson, Timothy, will move to Virginia Beach, Virginia, where Alkilani will work in private practice. Alkilani also plans to pursue a part-time position as a dental educator.
Category Type: Honors and Awards
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Eric Devon Vance
Position: DB
Height: 6-2 Weight: 215 lbs.
Born: July 14, 1975 in Tampa, FL
High School: L.D. Bell
College: Vanderbilt (school history)
Weighted Career AV (100-95-...): 2 (11632nd overall since 1950)
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- Book Reviews
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Winning With Money Part 4: Needs vs. Wants
This is the area that brings out the worst in us: the little three-year-old throwing a fit in the store because we want something, and we want it now! Think about this for a second. We lived for centuries without cable tv or smart phones. That means you won't die if you give them up for a few months while you get out of debt. Read more ›


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A Semester in Paradise
Category : Jordan Serra , Student Posts
If you asked me a year ago, as I was patiently waiting for the mounds of Rhode Island snow to melt, if I could imagine going to school in paradise for a semester, I would have most likely laughed and trudged away. Little did I know what the second half of my junior year would turn into. I've never truly believed that I belong in the area I was born and raised in; for someone who lives for the four months out of the year when I can walk to the beach from my house, snow and frigid temperatures have never appealed to me.
I live for the beach, surfing and the sand. I am an active musician who enjoys playing mellow, acoustic music for visiting tourists on the seawall in Watch Hill, Rhode Island; what was I doing buried in snow? The beautiful, lush environment of Hawaii has always been my calling, and it is where I have always belonged.
In the weeks before enrolling at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, I had literally no idea what to expect. I had never been to Hawaii, and I really had not heard much about the school. Luckily, a few friends from my home university of Roger Williams in Bristol, Rhode Island had attended the previous semester. They aided me with the many questions I had about the application process and the school in general, ultimately finalizing my decision to study "almost" abroad in paradise.
I have already accomplished many experiences during my short time here in Honolulu, but a few have drastically stood out among others. One of the most prominent was my skydiving experience over the coast of the North Shore. It was definitely one of the most surreal moments of my life, and a day that I will remember always. My tandem partner told me how amazing the drop zones in Hawaii were; in fact, that was the reason he moved to Hawaii from the mainland. I know how luck I am that my first skydiving experience was over one of the world's most beautiful shorelines.
The reality of jumping out of a plane 14,000 feet above the Pacific did not truly hit until I was hanging out of the tiny airplane, waiting for the three second countdown to end. Gliding through the warm Hawaiian sky and clouds was simply amazing; accomplishing a feet humans really aren't meant to accomplish is truly an indescribable experience. Following the release of the parachute was a relaxing, astonishing glide down to land. Floating safely over the water to the airfield just past the shoreline was a "flight" I won't soon forget. My mother understands my appetite for adventure, however my father just could not fathom why I wanted to jump out of a plane thousands of feet above land. That experience is why.
One professor in particular made my experience at the University of Hawaii at Manoa a much more memorable experience. Professor Jon Osorio, professor of Hawaiian Studies, is one of the most caring and passionate individuals I have ever met. He is an expert on true Hawaiian history and genealogy, and he is also very politically involved Hawaiian politics. Osorio cares deeply about his Hawaiian ancestry, and this is one of the many emotions you leave his class feeling deep inside.
Osorio has taught many original and loving ideas of the Hawaiian people, including the concepts of 'ohana, the lolli', and 'aina. 'Ohana is the concept of how important family is to the Hawaiian culture. The principal organizing unit in ancient Hawaiian society was the family, and the more family a person had, the better their life was to live. As someone whose family is the number one priority in their life, I can personally relate to this Hawaiian ideology. In this class we also visited the lolli' which is located right next to campus. The lolli' is an area of fishponds and taro cultivation. Because Hawaiians once had a limited amount of resources on their island, the natives would care for the island like it was their child. If Hawaiians did not go out and clean their lolli's taros, then they did not have clean water to drink. One quote stood out to me; "the land itself is the backbone of the people." If more people brought back this type of ideology today, as the Hawaiians are attempting to do, this world would be a much happier place. The final concept is the 'aina, which goes hand in hand with the lolli'. The concept of 'aina is caring for the land, and reimbursing the nourishment that it has provided to you. Replant the trees that are cut down, clean the water that is drank, respect the land and it will keep on providing. In a world where our most beautiful rainforests are being demolished and our majestic animals are being killed for profit, individuals need to recognize the importance of the 'aina.
Just recently, my roommate and I took an island-wide road trip after renting a brand new 2012 Ford Mustang convertible. We made many stops throughout the day, including Waikiki, Sandy's Beach, the Dole Plantation, and the North Shore. Driving through the North Shore pineapple fields with the wind blowing through my hair will be an experience I will always remember. This trip was a ton of fun, and I felt feelings that I am sure are only felt on these islands.
To conclude, my experience at UH will be a four-month experience I can safely say I will never forget. Another safe bet is that I will come back to this island, whether it be in a month, a year or a decade, I'll be back. Pieces of the Hawaiian culture will forever be apart of me now, and I am thrilled to spread that love to my friends and family back on the east coast. Even though Rhode Island will always truly be home for me, Oahu has become my home away from home.


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Sir Osbert Sitwell
Sir Osbert Sitwell Poems
- Orpheus WHEN Orpheus with his wind-swift fingers Ripples ...
Sir Osbert Sitwell was born in London on 6 December 1892, the son of Sir George Sitwell. He was raised in Derbyshire and educated at Eton. He sat for the exam for entry to Sandhurst twice but failed both attempts but later during the First World War Sitwell served as an officer in the Grenadier Guards, in France for various periods from 1914 to 1917. His experiences left him with hatred of war. ... more »
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Comments about Sir Osbert Sitwell
WHEN Orpheus with his wind-swift fingers
Ripples the strings that gleam like rain,
The wheeling birds fly up and sing,
Hither, thither echoing;
There is a crackling of dry twigs,
A sweeping of leaves along the ground,
Fawny faces and dumb eyes
Peer through the fluttering screens
That mask ferocious teeth and claws
Now tranquil.
As the music sighs up the hill-side,
The young ones hear,
Come skipping, ambling, rolling down,
Their soft ears flapping as they run,
Their fleecy coats catching in the thickets,
Till they lie, listening, round...
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Esme was my dream dress once I laid eyes on it. I love Jenny Packham's designs and knew the only way I could justify buying it was to have to sell it after our wedding in December. Esme has a vintage 1920's style completely covered in hand beading. It's ivory with pearl, crystal & silver beads. The silhouette is sheath, flattering the waist, hips and bum. It is so comfortable to wear as it's loose, weighted & falls on your curves. I wanted something different to the common strapless dress. This is the perfect option for someone who wants to flatter their body (v-neck slip underneath) yet feel elegant in a scoop neck, cap sleeves and peek-a-boo backless open. Please view Jenny Packham's website for zoom-in detail of Esme. I can assure you, you will love this dress, feel comfortable in it all day as I did and stun your guests with it's beauty. This is the ivory version with clear/white beads, not silver.
- Alterations: I had the dress hemmed to be 5'7 in height (I'm 5'4 & wore 3" heels) but with an invisible hem that can be let down to it's original length for taller girls to purchase afterwards. I also had a bustle put inside to pull up the train at our reception, which worked wonderfully. Bust: 34" Waist: 29" Hips: 37"
- Preservation Method: I have had the dress dry cleaned and it is in excellent condition.
- Terms of Sale: All Sales Final
- Original Owner:
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- Location: Vancouver, BC
- Will Ship to: Anywhere at Seller Expense
- Payment Methods Accepted: Escrow.com
Please read our BUYER'S GUIDE before purchasing a dress online.


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Vaccination Coverage
The Healthy People 2010 objective for immunization is to achieve 90 percent coverage for each of the universally recommended vaccines among young children. In 2007, 77.4 percent of children 19-35 months of age had received each of the vaccines in the recommended 4:3:1:3:3:1 series. This series comprises four doses of diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine; three doses of poliovirus vaccine; one dose of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine; three doses of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine; three doses of the Hepatitis B vaccine; and one dose of varicella (chicken pox) vaccine. Overall, 80.1 percent of young children had received the 4:3:1:3:3 series, which excludes the varicella vaccine.
In recent years, the greatest increase in vaccination rates has occurred with the varicella vaccine, which was added to the recommended schedule in 1996. Since 2000, coverage of varicella vaccine has increased approximately 30 percent. Coverage for most other vaccines has also risen during this time period, generally between 2 and 4 percent.
Racial/ethnic differences in coverage are apparent for most vaccine types. Non-Hispanic Black children have the lowest rates of vaccination with the overall 4:3:1:3:3:1 series, as well as the lowest rates of vaccination with each of the individual vaccines, except varicella.
Each year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publishes an update of the childhood immunization schedule. No new vaccines were added to the schedule in 2009; however, there were a number of changes in the catch-up recommendations for several vaccines and the vaccination guidelines for certain populations of children.


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Bigg Boss Season 5 hosted by superstars Salman Khan and Sanjay Dutt shocked the audience as it announced the names of the inmates. This year's Bigg Boss has 13 women inmates including transgender activist Laxmi Narayan Tripathi, and the only man Shakti Kapoor as the 14th contestant. Shakti will have no male company in the reality show not that he'd mind it but if the women power ever got together against him he'd stand no chance. What the show has planned and would it survive with only women bickering and fighting over everything only time will tell!
Also Read:
Salman Khan, Sanjay Dutt dance at 'Bigg Boss 5′ launch
Charles Sobhraj's wife to show world who's the Bigg Boss


text:
Weighing In
What the scale tells you is how much the earth
has missed you, body, how it wants you back
again after you leave it to go forth . . .
What the scale tells you is how much the earth
has missed you, body, how it wants you back
again after you leave it to go forth . . .
The well rising without sound,
the spring on a hillside,
the plowshare brimming through deep ground . . .
The concept is interesting: to see, as though reflected
In streaming windowpanes, the look of others through
Their own eyes. A digest of their correct impressions of . . .
What horror to awake at night
and in the dimness see the light.
Time is white . . .
The sea bit,
As they said it would,
And the hill slid, . . .
All these great barns out here in the outskirts,
black creosote boards knee-deep in the bluegrass.
They look so beautifully abandoned, even in use. . . .
There's a place between two stands of trees where the grass grows uphill
and the old revolutionary road breaks off into shadows
near a meeting-house abandoned by the persecuted . . .
What lips my lips have kissed, and where, and why,
I have forgotten, and what arms have lain
Under my head till morning; but the rain . . .
Why speak of hate, when I do bleed for love?
Not hate, my love, but Love doth bite my tongue
Till I taste stuff that makes my rhyming rough . . .
Stumps. Railroad tracks. Early sicknesses,
the blue one, especially.
Your first love rounding a corner,
that snowy minefield. . . .


text:
A rare snowfall in the Northern Sacramento Valley brought joy for some and trouble for others. KRCR News Channel 7's Evan Schreiber reports on the aftermath of the first big winter storm of the season.
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Rinne Allen
Blasting cauliflower florets in a hot oven concentrates their natural sweetness, turning them into something akin to vegetable candy.
Leave a Review
I'm usually not a big cauliflower fan but this is a good recipe. Thanks to the comments from other reviewers, I added some curry powder and lowered the temp to 425 for 20 minutes. My alternative way of making cauliflower is to smother it with cheese so this is a much healthier alternative!
forgot to rate! % forks!
One of my favorite veggie recipes!! A++
Oops forgot to rate: 4 forks!
Couldn't be simpler and couldn't be more delicious. Will turn down oven next time but have to admit I liked them a little dark!
Oh so yummy! As others have said, it was all I could do not to eat the whole pan while I was finishing dinner prep. I thickly sliced big chunks of the cauliflower to get more surface area for the caramelization, tossed with olive oil and Jane's Sweet Lime Pepper, and roasted at 400 for just 20 minutes, turning once after 10 minutes. Really really good and could not be easier.
This is very good! Less baking time, preheated the pan, and added some curry. I hardly want to share!
I made this with the addition of some sliced leeks and a sprinkling of some herbs and it was delicious. I want to test it out on my 2 young nephews who are in a no vegetables phase. I bet they will like this one!!
Oh, and I did turn the temp down. Agree with another reviewer that 450 was too hot, at least it was for my oven. 400 or 425 worked well.
I like most veggies but never liked cauliflower. I decided to give new recipes for this veggie a try - and this one was so simple and so delicious (I ate most of the head of cauliflower for my main dinner instead of the planned side as I intended!).


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Permanent URL to this publication: http://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh-26334
Thom, N; Favrot, C; Failing, K; Mueller, R S; Neiger, R; Linek, M (2010). Intra- and interlaboratory variability of allergen-specific IgE levels in atopic dogs in three different laboratories using the Fc-varepsilon receptor testing. Veterinary Immunology and Immunopathology, 133(2-4):183-189.
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The IgE specific Fc-varepsilon receptor test is widely used for serological evaluation of allergic canine patients. Aim of the study was to evaluate intra- and interlaboratory variability in three independent laboratories. Duplicate serum aliquots from 15 atopic dogs were submitted simultaneously to 3 laboratories (LA, LB, LC), which subsequently performed the test in a blinded fashion. LA and LC analysed sera for 35 allergens and expressed the results as optical density units (OD), while LB analysed 15 allergens and provided reaction grades (RG). Results were compared with three factorial ANOVA. Intralaboratory variability was evaluated by calculating the dispersion factor for data of LA and LC and standard deviation (SD) for LB. Correlation coefficients (r) were used to evaluate interlaboratory variability. Depending on the allergens, intralaboratory dispersion factor for LA and LC varied from 1.15 to 6.63 and 1.19 to 6.17, respectively. In LB the SD varied between 0 and 0.6 RG. Regarding interlaboratory variability, correlation of OD values between LA and LC was excellent (r>0.8, p<0.001) for 13 of 35 allergens. There was a significant difference in OD results for 9 allergens. The results were significantly correlated (r>0.8, p<0.001) for all except 3 allergens (Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus, mixed grasses, nettle). As far as negative/positive results were concerned, intralaboratory differences were 3.14% and interlaboratory differences were 4.76%.
6 citations in Web of Science®
8 citations in Scopus®
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3 downloads since deposited on 13 Jan 2010
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|Item Type:
|Journal Article, refereed, original work
|Communities & Collections:
|05 Vetsuisse Faculty > Veterinary Clinic > Department of Small Animals
|Dewey Decimal Classification:
|570 Life sciences; biology
630 Agriculture
|Deposited On:
|13 Jan 2010 16:07
|Last Modified:
|05 Apr 2016 13:41
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Permanent URL to this publication: http://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh-3190
VandeVondle, J; Hutter, J (2003). An efficient orbital transformation method for electronic structure calculations. Journal of Chemical Physics, 118(10):4365-4369.
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|Accepted Version
An efficient method for optimizing single-determinant wave functions of medium and large systems is presented. It is based on a minimization of the energy functional using a new set of variables to perform orbital transformations. With this method convergence of the wave function is guaranteed. Preconditioners with different computational cost and efficiency have been constructed. Depending on the preconditioner, the method needs a number of iterations that is very similar to the established diagonalization-DIIS approach, in cases where the latter converges well. Diagonalization of the Kohn-Sham matrix can be avoided and the sparsity of the overlap and Kohn-Sham matrix can be exploited. If sparsity is taken into account, the method scales as O(MN2), where M is the total number of basis functions and N is the number of occupied orbitals. The relative performance of the method is optimal for large systems that are described with high quality basis sets, and for which the density matrices are not yet sparse. We present a benchmark calculation on a DNA crystal containing 2x12 base pairs, solvent and counter ions (2388 atoms), using a TZV(2d,2p) basis (38 688 basis functions) and conclude that the electronic structure of systems of this size can now be studied routinely.
147 citations in Web of Science®
151 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™
190 downloads since deposited on 27 Mar 2009
147 downloads since 12 months
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|Item Type:
|Journal Article, refereed, original work
|Communities & Collections:
|07 Faculty of Science > Department of Chemistry
|Dewey Decimal Classification:
|540 Chemistry
|Deposited On:
|27 Mar 2009 08:19
|Last Modified:
|01 Jun 2016 13:01
|American Institute of Physics
|Additional Information:
|Copyright 2003 American Institute of Physics. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the American Institute of Physics. The following article appeared in J. Chem. Phys. 118, 4365 (2003); DOI:10.1063/1.1543154 and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.1543154
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Superman Prequel "Krypton" Ordered to Pilot
It occurs to me that it seems like many comic book covers are homages. Which is fine with me. I have no problem with it. It just made me think, though, how long could I go before I hit a week where NO new comic book was released that had a cover that was an homage to something? Let's find out! Here is an archive of all the cover homages featured in the streak so far!
This week we feature Todd McFarlane's Spawn #227 cover, homaging his own cover for Amazing Spider-Man #300.
Nineteen weeks down! Will we make it to week twenty (and if so, will there be a sense of deja vu after this week)? Find out!
Humberto Ramos' cover for the 2nd printing of AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #700 also homaged ASM #300.
I'm not sure you should allow people homaging themselves in this list.
I was taught that homaging yourself makes you go blind.
I know I am going to get a lot of flack for saying this, but, the one problem I had with Spawn is that he did not look like a demon from hell to me. He looked like Spider-Man in a black suit. And, this cover just solidifies my opinion.
I agree with you. MacFarlane's style could never portray a demon look for Spawn.
Imagine if someone with the artistic chops of a Mike Mignola, for instance, had designed Spawn…
I know I am going to get a lot of flack for saying this, but, the one problem I had with Spawn is that he did not look like a demon from hell to me. He looked like Spider-Man in a black suit.
The only flack I can give for that statement is that I can't imagine having only one problem with Spawn.
McFarlane homaged himself on the previous issue's cover, too.
When he thinks about himself, he homages himself.
At least a demon contorting his body like that kinda makes sense. An actual human being, not so much.
homage? it's Disgusting.
DAMN there are a lot of water towers in the background.
Any idea of what they mean with "special 227th anniversary issue"?
Just a joke.
Yeah, the original (linked above) was a "special 25th anniversary issue" with "300" printed all over the background. Since this happens to be issue #227, he just went with it.
MonikerNV: That's because water towers are … advantageous.
They let you…
The cover of this week's 2000ad is a pretty sweet homage by Boo Cook. http://2000ad.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/2000ad-1817-boo-cook-strontium-dog.jpg?w=627
Comics Should Be Good accepts review copies. Anything sent to us will (for better or for worse) end up reviewed on the blog. See where to send the review copies.


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Arizona State: Collected his first All-America honor by helping the distance medley relay of Justin Kremer, Nectaly Barbosa and Kyle Alcorn to a second-place finish at the NCAA Championships... that same relay ran 9:32.49 to set the school record... also a member of the second-fastest DMR in school history (9:32.80)... 2008 Outdoor: Placed 12th in the 1,500m run at the Pac-10 Championships... rank a personal-best time of 3:48.75 in the conference prelims... took runner-up honors in the 1,500m run at the Oregon Relays and the Double Dual... selected to the Academic All-Pac-10 Honorable Mention team... 2008 Indoor: Earned All-America honors as a member of the national runner-up distance medley relay... team of Justin Kremer, Nectaly Barbosa and Kyle Alcorn combined to run a school-record 9:32.49 at the national meet to place second and help ASU to its first indoor team title in program history... member of the runner-up DMR at the MPSF Championships that set the record in 9:32.80... competed in two individual events, including the mile run and 3,000m run... both runs produced personal-best times (4:10.57 and 8:08.42)... 2007 XC: Ran in six races... placed 191st at the NCAA Championships to help team finish 26th at the national meet... placed 25th in the Pac-10 and 37th in the NCAA West Region... selected as the team's Coaches Award recipient... finished seventh at the Dave Murray Invitational to open the year... placed 25th at the Roy Griak Invitational as team took second overall... 2007 Outdoor: Competed at 1,500m and 5,000m... nearly scored at the Pac-10 Championships, finishing ninth in the 1,500m run... turned in a personal-best time of 3:49.57 in the Pac-10 final... scored at the Double Dual, taking second in the 5,000m run... selected Academic All-Pac-10 Honorable Mention... 2007 Indoor: Ran in one race, clocking a time of 14:56.03 in the 5,000m run at the Husky Classic... 2006 XC: Ran in the third position for the team much of the year... took 17th place at the Pac-10 Championships before finishing 81st at the regional run... also was sixth to open the year at the Dave Murray before taking 46th at the Roy Griak and 55th at the Pre-National meet... earned a place on the Academic All-Pac-10 Second Team... 2006 Outdoor: Regionally qualified for the 5,000m run with a personal best time of 14:06.0 at the Stanford Invitational... placed third at the Baldy Castillo Invitational in the 3,000m run with a personal best mark of 8:21.65... in the classroom, was selected to the USTFCCCA All-Academic and Academic All-Pac-10 Honorable Mention teams... 2006 Indoor: Ran in two races... placed 11th at the MPSF Championships in the 3,000m run and sixth at the Arizona-California Challenge in the mile run... earned MPSF All-Academic honors... 2005 XC: Competed in five meets... finished 133rd in his first NCAA meet... took 26th at the regional race and 34th at the Pac-10 Championships... finished 36th at the Roy Griak Invitational... 207th at the Pre-National meet... selected as the team's Most Improved Male Athlete... earned Honorable Mention Academic All-Pac-10 honors... 2005 Track: Redshirted... 2004 XC: Competed in four races (once unattached) placing in the Top 7 on the team in each run... finished off his competitive season placing 55th at the Pac-10 Championships (26:17)... awarded team's Newcomer of the Year for the men at season banquet.
High School: A 2004 graduate of Shadow Mountain High School (Phoenix)... Arizona state champion at 1,600m in 2004 with a state meet record of 4:14.36... added another title as a member of the 4x800m team... cross country team won the state cross country crown in 2002... selected cross country all-region three times (2001, 2002, 2003) and all-state (2002, 2003)... on the track, selected to the all-region team three times (2002, 2003, 2004) and all-state twice (2002, 2004)... member of the school-record 4x800m relay team (7:58.26)... earned four letters each in cross country and track and field... added three more in soccer... captained the cross country and track and field teams as a senior.
Personal: Majoring in aerospace engineering... parents are Randy and Julie Heller... one sibling: Jenna... born Nov. 23, 1985, in Phoenix... full name is Joseph Patrick Heller... hobbies include playing the guitar and drums.
Personal Bests 1500: 3:48.75 3000: 8:08.42 5000: 14:06.07
In NCAA Championship Meets
2008 ITF - Distance Medley (f) - 9:32.49 - 2nd - All-American
2007 XC - 10,000m Course - 31:56.00 - 191st
2005 XC - 10,000m Course - 31:18.30 - 133rd


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The administration put out a new report Tuesday showing black youngsters make up 18% of kids enrolled in preschool. Half that number of preschoolers are suspended more than once.
Terrible numbers, especially considering their age. But that's not the half of it.
It seems that almost endlessly, the Obama administration finds some racial conspiracy lurking somewhere in America. Naturally, the latest involves preschool teachers who secretly scheme to single out black tots for punishment.
The administration's report showed that black youngsters make up 18% of kids enrolled in preschool, but nearly 50 percent are suspended more than once. No, bad parenting is not cited, but rather a racist conspiracy to start criminalizing black youths as toddlers.
Education Secretary Arne Duncan said, "The fact that the school-to-prison pipeline appears to start as early as four years old, before kindergarten, should horrify us," he said at a news conference.
He's right, it does.
Then there's Attorney General Eric Holder's take on this statistic. He promised to "aggressively disrupt the school-to-prison pipeline." That most likely means millions of federal dollars to weed out "racist nursery schools."
Just how far will this administration go with its race-monger socioeconomic attitude without a hint of proof?
This was promised to be the presidency that ended racism in this country, yet it seems to promote it at every turn.
The administration recklessly impugns the character of preschool educators. What is the real reason behind these startling statistics?
A University of North Carolina study published earlier this year entitled "Early Childhood Research Quarterly," noted that black preschoolers are more likely to face suspension, because they are "more likely to be from homes in which the parents were inattentive."
Where is the racism in that Mr. attorney general? We can be sure the study didn't come close to the millions of taxpayer money you wish to spend to discover the same harsh reality.
The study, "Preschool to kindergarten transition patterns for African-American boys," found that African-American boys have more difficulty developing social skills to advance.
If this doesn't satisfy Mr. Holder, then there are other studies.
A University of Florida study also contradicts the ridiculous notion of racism. It surveyed the parenting styles of African-American female caregivers of preschoolers and found they tend to be more "permissive," leading to antisocial behavior.
And not to forget the Education Department's own report which said, preschool boys of all races account for a whopping 82% of preschoolers suspended multiple times.
Now who are the victims here, the educators for government interference on political grounds or those crying "racist" every time they're cornered with the truth?
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Red Raiders Fall in Shootout
Texas Tech battled to a 2-2 draw with Texas A&M before falling in 4-3 in a shootout
Nov. 22, 2013
Box Score | Postgame Notes | Highlights and Interviews | Photo Gallery
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. - Texas Tech's run in the NCAA Tournament came to a dramatic close Friday evening at Fetzer Field in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Making its second-straight NCAA Second Round appearance, Tech battled Texas A&M to a 2-2 draw before the Aggies took the match in a penalty kick shootout 4-3. With the draw, Texas Tech ends its historic 2013 season with an 18-2-3 record.
"The first thing is I just want to tell everyone how proud we are of this team," Texas Tech head coach Tom Stone said. "We had a tremendous season. We had one of the best defenses in the country and I think we showed that again tonight. Losing in penalties is brutal, because you play hard, the game is tied but it has to be settled."
Tech's 18 victories mark a new school record while the Red Raiders also set a new program best with 17 shutouts including a 3-0 victory over Minnesota in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tech allowed just nine goals in 23 matches on the year while scoring 48 of its own.
"We started out with the intention to shutout as many teams as possible," senior defender and team captain Hayley Haagsma said. "That was our defensive goal. That comes from stopping shots, and I think that comes from the backline as a defensive unit. From the goalie to the four defenders and two holding midfielders we really just embraced that goal and what Todd Shulenberger put in our minds."
Sophomores Janine Beckie and Briana Rohmer provided the scoring effort for the Red Raiders, while all four goals in the game came in the second half. Defensively, Red Raider goalkeeper Victoria Esson matched her career-high from earlier this season with 10 saves on the night.
Moments after a scoreless first period, Rohmer put Tech up 1-0 less than two minutes into the second half with her fifth goal of the season. A sophomore from Fort Worth, Rohmer took a long feed from teammate Alli Murphy downfield and beat Texas A&M goalkeeper Jordan Day with a shot from atop the penalty box in the 47th minute to give Tech the first lead of the match.
Texas A&M found the equalizer in the 60th minute when Annie Kunz headed in a goal off a deflection inside the 6-yard box. The Aggies had a handful of opportunities in front of the Tech net before the score, including a diving save by Esson to her left.
Tech responded when Beckie gave the Red Raiders their second lead of the night with 15 minutes remaining in regulation by way of her team-leading 12th score of the season. Beckie took a long pass downfield before beating Day one-on-one and punching the ball into the back corner of the net.
"It was an incredible ball," Beckie said. "She placed it right where it needed to be, and I just knew I had to go to goal with this. It was do-or-die, our lives were on the line and I just wanted to get this win."
Beckie, an All-Big 12 First Team forward, ends her sophomore campaign in the top-five all-time at Texas Tech in scoring with 26 career goals. She's also already No. 4 all-time in career points with 61.
Texas A&M then responded once more when Shea Groom netted her 14th goal of the year to knot the game at 2-2 with less than 10 minutes remaining in regulation. Her score came after a header by teammate Rachel Lenz hit off the cross bar before Groom took the rebound and headed it into the Red Raider net.
The two squads went into overtime where neither team could find the back of the net after two 10-minute overtime periods before Tech found itself in its first shootout situation since the 2009 season. Texas A&M connected on each of its first four penalty kicks in the shootout while Day made saves on shots by Jade Dapaah and Alli Murphy.


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Feb. 12, 2000
MOSCOW, Idaho - The Husky men's and women's track and field teams combined to win 17 events this weekend en route to dual meet sweeps over Eastern Washington, Western Oregon, and host Idaho at the Moscow McDonald's Scoring Invitational.
Husky sprinter Ja'Warren Hooker remained undefeated in sprint races in 2000, capturing victories in both the 60- and 200-meter dashes. Hooker's time of 6.64 seconds in the 60m shaved one hundredth of a second off his previous season best, and fell just two hundredths of a second short of the automatic qualifying standard for March's NCAA Indoor Championships. Hooker doubled his fun with a 21.09-second victory in the 200m, pushing his record to 7-0 at distances under 400m in 2000.
Hooker was by no means the only Husky who made waves in Idaho's Kibbie Dome. Seniors Margaret Butler and Cami Matson floored the competition in the mile run, crossing the line 12 seconds ahead of their nearest competitor. Butler's time of 4:50.71 and Matson's time of 4:51.04, both career-bests, were both just seconds shy of the NCAA's provisional qualifying standard. Butler and Matson also teamed up for a 1-2 finish and personal bests in the 800m, crossing the line in 2:15.92 and 2:16.25, respectively.
Other Huskies to capture event titles in Moscow included senior Matt Phillips in the pole vault (16'-2.75"), senior David Bazzi in the mile (4:14.42), sophomore Kelsey Sheppard in the 400 meters (55.61 seconds), senior Seselia Thomas in the shot put (48'-2.75"), sophomore Sandy Erickson in the pole vault (11'-5.75"), senior Greg Barber in the 55m hurdles (7.86 seconds), senior Chelsie Pentz in the 200 meters (24.86 seconds), senior Anna Aoki in the 3,000 meters (9:49.97), senior Jason Fayant in the 3,000 meters (8:29.58), senior Geoff Perry in the 800 meters (1:53.62), the women's 4x400 meter relay squad (3:45.09), the men's distance medley relay squad (10:08.83) and the women's distance medley relay squad (12:03.46).
The Huskies return to Idaho on Friday for the first day of the two-day Vandal Invitational.


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