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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73444984947991497942016-06-29T11:03:04.126-04:00My Civil War ObsessionExploring anything and everything about this war
that fascinates me so muchRichardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-23043645019758698512016-06-23T11:01:00.000-04:002016-06-26T10:21:10.618-04:00Press vs. Press: A Few Period Thoughts on the Charleston Mercury This brief untitled story is from the Covington Journal of March 9, 1861. The Charleston Mercury is frequently quoted in the North as a representative of Southern opinion. The following, from the Mobile Register, will remove ths false impression. "No man who has more than the merest superficial knowledge of current politics, or, who does not deliberately intend to mislead, will quote the Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-68247522766164735102016-06-20T11:07:00.000-04:002016-06-20T11:07:46.403-04:00Where Has the Time Gone? My First Post Less than half a score years ago, I brought forth onto this platform a new blog, conceived in curiosity and dedicated to the proposition that blogging was a worthy experiment. Now I am engaged in a great continuation of this quest... Well, enough of that, but I do wish to take a moment or two to note that yesterday, June 19, marked the seventh anniversary of My Civil War Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-65497111580481748692016-06-16T12:27:00.000-04:002016-06-16T12:27:24.054-04:00Book Review: Kentucky Confederates Kentucky Confederates: Secession, Civil War and the Jackson Purchase By Berry Craig Copyright 2014 University Press of Kentucky The latest book in my recent reading spree was another one focused on Kentucky, this time specifically on how one region of the state had much stronger ties to the Confederacy than the rest of the Commonwealth. Having just read For Slavery and Union, I was Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-76654452763960479822016-06-06T11:27:00.003-04:002016-06-07T10:06:14.594-04:00Should Louisville Replace the Confederate Statue with One of Muhammad Ali? Courtesy yahoo.com With the recent death of legendary boxer (and Kentuckian) Muhammad Ali, at least one person has suggested that a statue of Ali replace the Confederate statue that the city is removing from the University of Louisville's campus. At first glance, it sounds like a simple, straight-forward idea. Ali was born in Louisville, had a legendary career as one of the best boxersRichardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-81136042094151382932016-06-02T10:01:00.000-04:002016-06-07T10:04:38.777-04:00Book Event: Wild Wolf and the Great Rivalry of the Civil War On June 12, the James A. Ramage Civil War Museum where I volunteer will proudly host the following event. Please see our press release and publicity information provided by the publisher. THE JAMES A. RAMAGE CIVIL WAR MUSEUM PESENTS: RON BLAIR and his new book: Wild Wolf—The Great Civil War Rivalry JUNE 12, 2016; 1:00 PM Entry Fee is $5 ($4 for Museum Members) The Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-69169944567085746122016-05-25T15:17:00.000-04:002016-05-25T15:23:23.172-04:001883 Letter Mentions Perryville In hindsight, perhaps I should have completed this before my trip to the battlefield last Saturday, but it still is worth sharing now. This is a neat post-war letter. It is from 1883 and mentions something that happened shortly before the battle at Perryville. Even though it does not add anything about the actual fighting, I think it is rather interesting. The fact that it mentions the U.S. Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-91097888518734705492016-05-22T15:48:00.000-04:002016-05-22T15:48:44.131-04:00Review of Perryville trip Overcast, foggy sky The ground was wet and sloppy, saturated with recent rainfall, the temperatures were on the cool side, and the sky was gloomy and overcast, seeming to promise more precipitation. Though the soldiers who fought at Perryville would have gladly welcomed such conditions, I was more than a little bit anxious about how such conditions would affect the walking tour I was about Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-41590166088524595542016-05-20T19:17:00.000-04:002016-05-20T19:17:30.915-04:00A Few Pre-Perryville Trip ThoughtsI'm headed to Perryville again Saturday morning after not visiting it last year. I do not know if I will take part in the entire hiking tour as it is hilly, rough terrain and I am not sure how much I can handle, but I am anxious to see parts of the field again, to think of the men who fought there, to ponder the issues of the war and the consequences of such issues. It won't be exactly a Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-72204231425635441612016-05-14T14:00:00.000-04:002016-05-14T14:00:09.669-04:001859 Article: "Free Soil" Press in Slave StatesThis story appeared in the Covington Journal of October 29 ,1859 and I found it to be interesting to see this viewpoint from one newspaper about others. Its opinion on the rise of such publications indicating the possible decline of slavery in border states is fascinating too, though I doubt it actually was accurate. Calling slavery "the institution" caught my eye as well. Freesoil Press in Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-87539945812483366692016-05-11T11:11:00.002-04:002016-05-11T11:11:37.175-04:00Book Review: For Slavery and Union: Benjamin Buckner and Kentucky Loyalties in the Civil War For Slavery and Union: Benjamin Buckner and Kentucky Loyalties in the Civil War Author: Patrick A. Lewis Copyright 2015 University Press of Kentucky After going quite a while without doing a book review, I now am doing a third one in just the last couple of weeks. Today's review is about a book I really enjoyed, one which covered one of my favorite topics, Kentucky in and after the Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-53782090422614829232016-05-05T10:23:00.000-04:002016-05-05T10:23:42.744-04:00Wrap-Up and Some Sources for Hart Series Well, my series on Derrill Wason Hart and his family has finally reached its conclusion with this post. It started out to be just one post, then evolved into perhaps two or three, but ended up being nine posts, including this one. I have really enjoyed this project and have learned quite a few new ideas about online research and how to continue to look for more information even when I think I Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-40198319226632748872016-05-04T10:57:00.000-04:002016-05-04T10:57:55.765-04:00Hart Family: A Genealogical Sketch This is the latest and probably last (except for a list of sources) installation of a series of posts I originally intended as just one entry on a man named Derrill Wason Hart, who played college basketball at the University of Kentucky. I was going to title it Basketball, Dahlias and the Civil War, at least until I found more information than I expected and decided to separate the stories into Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-16147668697420407142016-04-26T14:48:00.000-04:002016-04-26T14:48:33.119-04:001859 Article: A Logical SolutionThis story is from the Covington Journal of October 29, 1859. This little anecdote has no real direct war connection but does discuss a key issue of the time, and after I read it, I thought it was worth sharing. A Kentuckian in an Easy Fix Col. H., returning from a Northern tour, encountered on his way to Cincinnati, a large number of Quakers, of both sexes, returning from an abolitionRichardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-67676384696847252222016-04-21T11:41:00.003-04:002016-04-21T11:41:56.636-04:00Review: Texas Yankee: Homecoming by Jerry P. Orange Texas Yankee: Homecoming Jerry P. Orange Copyright 2012 CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform After not doing many book reviews in recent months, I suddenly have done two in a row. This book is different than most I review. It is a novel, a work of fiction. I have only reviewed such works once or twice, but will do my best on this one, offering my honest thoughts on it. Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-91623478264348042612016-04-14T11:15:00.002-04:002016-04-14T11:15:42.482-04:00Book Review: Correspondence from Perryville by Jamie Gillum Correspondence From Perryville: Pluck to the Backbone By Jamie Gillum Copyright 2014 CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform This is the most recent Perryville book that I have learned about, acquired and read. It is a good book, bringing back to life several forgotten viewpoints to the story of this battle. The purpose of the book was to share insights and thoughts about the Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-82363643006216597322016-04-08T15:10:00.000-04:002016-04-08T15:10:25.367-04:00Ancestors in the Civil War: the McIntosh Brothers A few years ago I finally learned that some of my direct ancestors did serve in the Civil War. Here is a link to a brief post I wrote about Nimrod McIntosh and Henderson Turner. That entry, however, has some errors that I apparently never went back to correct, so I will update it here for Nimrod and in a separate entry for Henderson. Nimrod, my 3-times great grandfather, joined Company D ofRichardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-18049642304117053132016-04-02T13:43:00.000-04:002016-04-02T13:43:47.592-04:00Early Anti-Civil War Comments Here are two stories found in the Covington Journal of July 13, 1861. Some fighting in the war had already occurred, but the first Battle of Bull Run - and the realization that this would be a long, hard war - was still a few days away. Nevertheless, that did not stop one speaker from expressing not anti-war thoughts, but anti-civil war thoughts. It is interesting that he deprecated Civil War, Richardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-89603868325376496372016-03-28T10:17:00.000-04:002016-03-28T10:17:32.396-04:00Ramage Museum Blue and Gray Dinner April 13 If you are near Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky, please consider supporting the James A. Ramage Civil War Museum, the area's only free Civil War museum. Tickets are only $50 each and we will also have great items available for a silent auction. The featured entertainment will be local historian Karl Lietzenmayer doing his fantastic impression of famed 19th century songwriter Stephen Foster,Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-61867513678743254352016-03-23T08:56:00.000-04:002016-03-23T08:56:25.811-04:00Lieutenant Edward H. Hart, 3rd Alabama Infantry Here comes the latest in the series on the Hart family, the last individual story in this long, enjoyable project. It began with University of Kentucky basketball, continued to the career of a Confederate veteran, and expanded to describe the careers of five more former Confederates. A study of the family history and a quick conclusion and list of sources for this series will follow. Please Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-16591736263016260762016-03-15T13:13:00.000-04:002016-03-15T13:13:30.582-04:00Northern Kentucky History Day, March 19, 2016 Please see the following press release about a wonderful local event. The Roebling Bridge opened at the end of 1866, but had been started in 1859. Money and politics (imagine that!) had caused delays and during the Siege of Cincinnati I've mentioned here often, the lack of a bridge between Cincinnati and Kentucky caused a need for a temporary pontoon bridge to help troops cross the river. Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-88644000389434811482016-03-09T09:49:00.001-05:002016-03-09T09:49:55.629-05:001862 Article: Impressment of slaves in KentuckyThis is a brief untitled story from the Covington Journal of August 30, 1862. A special dispatch to the Cincinnati Commercial from Lexington, Ky., says that an order was issued Saturday to impress 1,200 slaves to repair the road between Lexington and Cumberland Gap. Impressment has been made in Fayette and Madison counties. Loyal owners are to be paid laborer's wages, but rebels are to Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-46392894294401529752016-03-04T13:41:00.000-05:002016-03-04T13:41:39.971-05:00March 4, 1865: Lincoln's Second Inaugural Whether this speech or the Gettysburg Address is the better speech is something I've pondered more than once. I cannot say I have ever decided either way. I did like Ronald White's book Lincoln's Greatest Speech about this inaugural and accepted that viewpoint, but further readings of the few appropriate comments in Pennsylvania have made me less certain. It's a tough call, perhaps one I'll try Richardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-51688077893684207852016-03-02T10:22:00.000-05:002016-03-02T10:22:50.436-05:00A Tragic 1862: Private Patrick McCole, 28th Massachusetts Infantry Original Enhanced view Though the photographs above may not be perfectly clear, they still show a valuable image, a blue-clad Civil War soldier in a traditional seated pose, with ramrod straight back and lips, holding his gun, waiting for the photographic process to finish. It is hand-colored, unlike most period images, which remained black and white. It is a bit dark and itRichardhttp://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-56313575842512562592016-02-26T10:01:00.000-05:002016-02-26T10:03:36.677-05:00Explore Evergreen Cemetery (Southgate, Ky) A few months ago, I wrote about Evergreen Cemetery in Southgate Kentucky needing assistance to raise funds for various maintenance issues, especially its roads. Here is a press release for an event the Friends of Evergreen will be hosting in early April. Evergreen does have a section for Union Soldiers, which includes Medal of Honor recipient William Horsfall. Several other Union veterans areRichardhttp://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-7344498494799149794.post-13727281180664087112016-02-24T09:13:00.000-05:002016-02-24T09:13:08.352-05:00A Period Kentucky Article on John Brown's RaidFrom the Covington Journal of October 22 1859, this story is generally unremarkable, except I find it interesting that it never mentions John Brown's name, even while referring to the "impetuous leader." I also note the term "established institutions" used as an euphemism for slavery. Placing blame on abolitionists and Henry Seward's famed "irrepressible conflict" speech was not unusual eitherRichardhttp://email@example.com


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Forum - View topicINTEREST: Shane Black Describes Changes He Opposed to Warner's Death Note
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Posts: 911
|I'm glad he emphasized that he did not support the proposed changes. People in the last article were going on about how "DEATH NOTE IS RUINED FOREVERRRR BAWWWW" when Shane Black was talking about how he did not support those changes.
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Posts: 86
Location: London, UK
whilst i had absolutely no expectations for this i have 2 say that SB opposing those damn awful studio changes has given me some hope for this after all, making it about vengeance and having no Ryuk would have turned an amazing manga storyline into another dead as a doornail Hollywood film
still though, im not getting my hopes up just yet, but it is good to hear that it could be an accurate adaptation at least
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Posts: 18
|We still have the Akira remake to be fearfull of as so far we've heard nothign that says that will turn out as anything other than a standard hollywood clunker...also theres still time for warners to ruin death note once it hit post production(i doubt the shinigami will resemble the japanese ones at all for instance and wouldnt be surprised if the whole friend of lights angle resurfaces there).
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Posts: 26
Again I have to give props to Shane Black although I could see the version of Light becoming "The Villain" happen but if done right, we saw two different origins of Light using the note for killing criminals. The One from the manga testing if it were indeed real saving two innocent lives in the process of a crime. And the other where in the Live Action Origin where Light went into the Police Mainframe database seeing Murderers and Rapists getting away free while petty criminals got Jail Time and such and his view of the Law shattered.
Again that Third Version of Light's Origin could work if done right even if the Death Gods didn't exsist but I am glad Shane Black knows what he's apart of and said Hell No and opposed the changes. But I agree with the one poster about us fearing the Akira adaptation.
I may barely have seen anything directly to Akira but even I knew the changes are messed up practically destroying the original source material...hey Dragon Ball Evolution Haters,ATLEAST THAT DID TAKE PLACE IN JAPAN And not a full American Cast.
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Posts: 2745
|It's cool that he opposed changes and all, but it feels a bit inappropriate for him to talk about internal discussions to get some props for himself
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Posts: 110
Location: Appleton, WI
As for the backstory, yea it would have been possible but then again how many other stories has Hollywood put out that involves revenge always as the central motive of someone going bad. The strength of Death Note lies in its theme where evil really isn't all black and white.
As can be recalled some of the actions L took, such as using a criminal to protray himself to test how Kira kills, was taken as displeasing by some/most of the task force as can be recalled by Mr. Yagami's reaction.
The changing of hands of the DeathNote to the others in both the anime/manga and Japan movie adaptation showed how different people would have different motives for killing.
It was overall the presence of L that changed the way Light handled things. Light probably would have simple continued with criminals if he wasn't hunted down. But it is indeed that intense rivalry between ideals that gives this series its strength.
Basically summed up in a single sentence that we all recognize a being repeated by L and Light simultaneously, "I am Justice!"
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Posts: 704
Location: British Columbia, Canada
Ugh, changing Lights back story to make him some kind of tortured soul who is trying to mend a prior trauma sounds awful. I liked the fact that Light started out as a decent, law-abiding citizen, but through his self-righteousness, arrogance, and addiction to power and control, turned into a real villain. Giving him a tragic back story sounds like an attempt to garner sympathy for the character, and part of the fun of Death Note is that Light is a character you love to hate.
I don't have any hopes for this movie, but at least the director had the good sense to not completely change the tone of the story.
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Ryu Shoji
Posts: 650
Location: Cambridge, United Kingdom
I'm so glad Shane Black has a head on his shoulders.
If they had changed Light's plan from achieving his sense of justice to revenge, it would have ruined the bigger picture of his battle against L.
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Posts: 1131
Location: Greensboro, North Carolina
It takes some serious cojones of steel to stand up to Warner Brothers and go "HELL no, we're not changing this for accessibility purposes. It's fine the way it is!", so I'm glad to see Shane Black doing just that.
If only the writers of the new Akira had taken that stance...
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Posts: 5259
Location: Fresno, TX
|Oh christ...
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Posts: 66
|i'll bet they'll fire him and get someone who's gonna kiss WB's butt and support their "awesome changes that make DN 100% better" aka dumbed down for typical us audiences who want evil to be black and white and they'll probably make light a college student from the start to avoid the "what!!!!!!!! a kid kills people?!?!?!?!?!" over protective "won't someone think of the children" crowd
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Posts: 92
|Starring Johnny Depp as L.
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Posts: 5888
Location: Maryland, USA
|From reading how Shane Black didn't want any changes made on Warner Bros's live-action Deathnote, I praise him for doing this. I wish we had more people like him when it comes to adapting anime/manga/video game into live-action. I don't oppose live-action adaptation no matter what country does it. I've seen some bad adaptation coming out of Asia that include Japan, I was not impressed on how Japan adapt Negima into a live-action TV Show.
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Mr. sickVisionz
Posts: 1648
|I actually wouldn't mind that change in background as long he did eventually develop his god complex. Him killing a violent criminal was how his first kill in the anime went anyways. I actually think that being the first kill would cement his "I am justice" mindset even more than him killing the random rapist that he saw in the anime.
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Posts: 300
Oh man, that's funny, tell us another one.
Anyway, yeah, how much does everyone wanna bet Shane gets tossed off the project once or before it's greenlit and they end up getting someone who approves of WB's idiotic changes?
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Danielle Colburn
Danielle is a still life and portrait photographer by day and a stagehand specializing in lighting by night. She climbs tall ladders and uses theatrical lights for her shots. Danielle studied stage lighting design at the California Institute of the Arts, which helped her make a transition from light, composition, and color on a stage to light, composition, and color in a viewfinder. She can often be found carrying a camera in one hand and a crescent wrench in the other.
Find me at: http://www.daniellecolburnphoto.com
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text:
Quantifying errors without random sampling
All quantifications of mortality, morbidity, and other health measures involve numerous sources of error. The routine quantification of random sampling error makes it easy to forget that other sources of error can and should be quantified. When a quantification does not involve sampling, error is almost never quantified and results are often reported in ways that dramatically overstate their precision.
We argue that the precision implicit in typical reporting is problematic and sketch methods for quantifying the various sources of error, building up from simple examples that can be solved analytically to more complex cases. There are straightforward ways to partially quantify the uncertainty surrounding a parameter that is not characterized by random sampling, such as limiting reported significant figures. We present simple methods for doing such quantifications, and for incorporating them into calculations. More complicated methods become necessary when multiple sources of uncertainty must be combined. We demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulation, using available software, can estimate the uncertainty resulting from complicated calculations with many sources of uncertainty. We apply the method to the current estimate of the annual incidence of foodborne illness in the United States.
Quantifying uncertainty from systematic errors is practical. Reporting this uncertainty would more honestly represent study results, help show the probability that estimated values fall within some critical range, and facilitate better targeting of further research.
Most health statistics are reported with an explicit quantification of uncertainty because they are based on a sample from a target population (possibly with random assignment of treatments), and quantifying the resulting stochastic error is done almost universally. Extrapolations from samples are not, however, the only way to calculate rates, totals, or other quantitative measures of health. The availability of data may lead to an approach that does not involve sampling or any other random process. For example:
• Automobile fatality totals are typically computed with an attempt to completely enumerate, counting every case.
• Two states might create a "natural experiment" by having different traffic or safety regulations. Differences between or ratios of frequencies of accidents or injuries could then be computed by enumeration and arithmetic.
• Samples of convenience are extrapolated to the entire population, such as trying to impute the U.S. incidence of
• To estimate the rate of a disease in a community, we frequently reverse this process and interpolate from a national average.
• Trends may be inferred from data that is believed to be related to the measure of interest, but in unknown ways, such as tracking the effect of economic changes on mental health by tracking the number of calls to hotlines.
Observational studies and randomized trials almost always quantify error due to random sampling and allocation. The realization, which was close to universal as long as four decades ago, that health research results need to include such quantification has helped reduce the frequency of conclusions based on inadequate sample sizes. However, the ease of quantifying that single source of error has distracted researchers from the many other, often larger, errors in any estimated quantity. Quantification of the one source of error implies that this represents all uncertainty. This implication grossly overstates precision by ignoring uncorrected confounding, selection biases, measurement errors, and specification of functional relationships.
Two highly publicized recent examples illustrate this. The death counts from the September 11 attacks on New York were updated hourly, and reported to four significant figures (the exact count). But the reports from the first few weeks turned out to be high by a factor of two, making it quite clear that even the apparently precise counting of fatalities from a single event can only be estimated within a range of error. The vote count in Florida in the 2000 U.S. presidential election involved complete enumeration. People were shocked that there was so much uncertainty – due to measurement and recording errors, among other things – in what they imagined to be a flawless mechanistic process. Few people understood that the results from the various counts represented a statistical tie, and that choosing which vote count was the "right" one was a matter of legalistic detail rather than scientific truth. (Note that this considers only the votes as counted. The illegal disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of eligible voters – who would have almost certainly broken the tie – reminds us that uncorrected systematic bias can have much larger magnitude than the measured result.
Analysis and discussion
Recently, methods have been developed to quantify the combination of various random and systematic errors in epidemiologic studies.
A simple method for quantifying errors in simple statistics
A quick and easy way to avoid overstating precision is appropriate rounding, as taught to high school science students (and largely ignored in health science reports, though a brief exposition of the point can be found in a recent epidemiology textbook [
The limits of this method are clear when you consider what to report in the first example if you want to reflect confidence of plus-or-minus 15%. Reporting 2.3 implies a bit too much precision, but reporting 2 implies too little. It usually makes sense to imply a bit too much precision rather than too little (thus providing more information about the point estimate), but we should stop at the minimum level of over-precision possible (2.3 in this case) and not imply more precision still (e.g., by reporting 2.35).
Annual U.S. automobile accident fatalities are reported to five figures (e.g., 41,611 for 1999
Notwithstanding the lack of a perfect rule, it should be clear when a result is presented with far too much precision, as is often the case. One of the most influential epidemiologic publications of recent years, Kernan et al.'s
If a more formal quantification of uncertainty is reported – such as reporting "2.35 plus-or-minus 0.12" for the above example – then the significant digits are no longer the only reporting of uncertainty, and are not so important. Nevertheless, if 2.3456 appears in a paper, there is a risk that it will be repeated out of context in all its implicit precision, without the +/-.12 clarification.
It should be noted that rounding to an appropriate number of significant digits (or any other method in this paper) does not
Improved quantification of errors in simple statistics
Eliminating implicit over-precision is an important step, but ultimately our goal should be to report our estimates as realistic ranges of true values by quantifying the sources of error. The simplest case is when all but one of the sources of uncertainty are
The probability distribution for values of a quantitative measure can be estimated from validation studies, ranges of values observed across studies, or the best expert judgment of the researchers. Any of these are likely to be better than failing to quantify uncertainty, in effect saying "we are not really sure whether the uncertainty is small or large, so let's just call it zero." If we cannot even roughly estimate how big the errors might be, then we are reporting a result that may not even remotely reflect the true value. If we believe we are more certain than that, we should be able to at least roughly quantify how certain we are.
We propose that when statistics are reported, researchers should estimate uncertainties in the inputs used to generate the statistics, calculate the combined results of those uncertainties to arrive at the uncertainty of the final result, and determine how to accurately and parsimoniously report that uncertainty. The present discussion sketches a method for the second of these steps and touches on the third. The details of the methods for the first step, such as validation studies, are beyond the present scope.
A report presented to the public and policy makers states that 2.76 percent of the people in a community have been diagnosed with a certain disease during a one-year period, based on active monitoring that identified 8650 people diagnosed out of a community of 312,962. Because the study method was a complete enumeration, there is no random process, and thus no frequentist error statistics. The resulting lack of a confidence interval means that no statement of error accompanied the result. It is certain, however, that there is still error. In particular, the researchers believe that 8650 is an undercount of as much as 20%, due to the likely inability of the monitoring system to detect all cases.
The total population of the community is also uncertain, but this is inconsequential (by the above definition). If reporting the figure in a final report, it would probably be appropriate to report 313,000 rather than the six figures, but this uncertainty is dwarfed by that of the numerator (on the order of 1 part in 100 or even 1 in 1000, compared to 1 in 10 for the numerator), and so can be ignored in the calculation. Even setting aside the downward bias, the precision implied by 2.76 percent – that we are fairly confident that we know the true value to about 1 part in 100 – is unwarranted.
After further contemplation and examination of validation data, the researchers decide that their best estimate is that the raw estimate is low by between 0 and 20 percent of the estimated value, uniformly distributed. The process by which they came to this conclusion – possibly involving a series of calculations based on the quality of monitoring, test sensitivity, etc. – is beyond the present scope. One might dispute the implicit claim that there is no chance of false positives, but it should be remembered that uncertainty distributions are never going to be perfect or beyond criticism. The researchers are simply of the opinion that the number of false positives will, with extremely high probability, be exceeded by the undercount.
(Rather than bundling these two sources of error into a single distribution, using intuition that may or may not be right, the researchers might have been better off reading ahead and using one of the methods for combining multiple sources of uncertainty. Had they done so, they might well have concluded that the misclassification error was indeed dwarfed by the under-reporting, and returned to a single quantification.)
The result of the researchers' uncertainty distribution is a uniform distribution for the annual disease incidence over the range [2.76%,3.32%]. How should this be reported? One option is to report 3%, which, conveniently, is the rounded result for the entire range. It accurately implies that our precision (with a known error of up to 10% on either side of the mean) warrants only about one significant figure. To provide more precision, the certainty interval containing 50% or 90% of the probability mass could be reported. (Again, without implying too much precision for the boundaries. An uncertainty distribution should itself not be stated in an overly-precise manner.) It is usually not a good idea to report the extremes and imply that the corrected value certainly falls between them. Extreme values can be misleading to the reader. They are also very sensitive to the exact input distributions used, such as in the current example, where the input distributions with zero probability beyond some range are good estimates for most of the probability mass, but they exclude extreme values that the researchers do not actually believe have zero probability.
The choice and nature of subjective uncertainty distributions
A detailed assessment of what needs to be considered in developing uncertainty distributions for inputs in this kind of analysis is beyond the present scope, but it is worth making a few comments to provide perspective and help researchers get started. The uniform distribution in the preceding example provides the easiest teaching example, but is probably not realistic. Even interpreting it as an approximation, it is unlikely that someone believes some range of values are approximately equally likely, but a value slightly outside that range is (approximately) impossible.
Typically, we have a point estimate and think the true value of the parameter is likely near it and the probability drops off as we deviate in either direction. This describes various distributions, including the normal, logistic, triangular (where the probability density is unimodal, dropping off linearly to zero in each direction, forming a triangular density function), and others. The choice among distribution shapes can be made largely based on whether the researcher wants to allow values to trail off to infinity or not and whether the distribution is symmetrical. A triangular distribution, while seldom appearing in nature, might effectively approximate someone's beliefs, and has the advantage for pedagogic purposes of allowing calculations using polynomial algebra. Normal and logistic distributions are easy to work with using numerical methods.
It turns out that the choice of the exact shape of the distribution, after the rough magnitude of uncertainty has been determined, is relatively unimportant. Estimates like those presented here are fairly stable across unimodal distribution shapes, as long as the probability mass is substantially overlapping. (I.e., if two distributions have a very similar range for the middle 50% of their probability mass and also for the middle 90%, they will have very similar implications in these uncertainty calculations.) It should be remembered that the purpose of these methods is to better represent uncertainty, and that goal is not well served by claiming too much precision about the details of the inputs and calculations.
The question of whether an input distribution corresponds to something found in nature brings up a complicated philosophy-of-statistics question: What exactly are these probabilities? To give an abbreviated answer, they are subjective probabilities that take into consideration all of the researcher's knowledge, except the point estimate for the parameter of interest they have calculated (in the above example that would be the annual disease incidence) and any prior beliefs about what the true value of that parameter is. The subjectivity of this probability should not be seen as surprising or regarded as a limitation. All of scientific inquiry, from hypothesis generation to study design to drawing conclusions, is a highly subjective and sociologic process. Furthermore, the alternative to specifying such a distribution is to produce calculations based on the assumption that there is zero uncertainty, which is either a subjective belief itself or (more likely) is strongly believed to be wrong.
The restriction that prior beliefs about the true value should be excluded from the researchers' generation of the input probabilities is a subtlety that relates to how we can interpret the results and how the resulting uncertainty would relate to random error if it were included in the calculations. While it is not necessary to delve deeply into Bayesian analysis to do the simple calculations proposed in this paper (or to generally revise our thinking about how certain most results are), a formal interpretation of the quantified uncertainty of a result is that it is a Bayesian posterior distribution based on a prior distribution (i.e., belief about the distribution before the research in question) that assigns equal likelihood to all values in the relevant range. To understand the importance of the prior distribution, consider the possibility that one of the researchers in the previous example was very confident that the actual incidence of the disease was above 3%. In that case, upon seeing the results of the study, she would not believe that the whole range was equally likely, but instead would think the upper end of it was more likely because her new beliefs would be based on a combination of the study result and what she knew before.
The implicit assumption that all possible values were equally likely (called a "flat prior") is problematic, because a flat distribution across all possible values is never realistic. The next step in improving these calculations should be to relax that assumption. However, the problems inherent in the implicit assumption of a flat prior (which makes the calculations much easier to perform and to understand) are reduced by a few factors. First, the "relevant range" condition says that the prior only needs to be flat across the range that contains most of the probability mass resulting from the calculation (e.g., in the above example, it would only have to be flat across [2.76%,3.32%]). This means that the worst problem of a totally flat prior, that unrealistically extreme values have to be considered to be as likely as realistic values, is absent. Furthermore, the intuition we as readers have learned from years of interpreting point estimates and frequentist confidence intervals is to, roughly, treat them as calculations based on flat priors and then roughly incorporate them into whatever actual prior belief we have. That is, if a study reports an estimate of 3 or some interval around it, and we were previously quite sure that the true value was 5 or more, the new evidence might push our beliefs downward, but it is not going to replace them. This is just as true if the interval is a standard confidence interval (based only on random sampling error) or an uncertainty quantification, and our practiced intuition will be useful until these methods are advanced.
Increasing complexity
As the calculation of the point estimate becomes more complicated, so does the uncertainty calculation. Multiple sources of uncertainty need to be combined in the same way as their underlying point estimates – additively, multiplicatively, or otherwise – as demonstrated in a further example.
Example, continued
The researchers wish to extrapolate the frequency of disease from the study community to estimate the total cases for the entire state, with a population of 10,456,000. A naive way to introduce quantified uncertainty into the calculation would be to treat the original study of 312,962 people as a random sample from a population of 10,456,000. The result could be quantified using the usual frequentist statistical methods, with the result misleadingly suggesting high precision (a 95% confidence interval of (2.71,2.82)). But greater uncertainty is introduced by the extrapolation of the results, which introduces unknown levels of non-stochastic error. Perhaps the sample community was studied because it was particularly convenient, because it was more urban or had a better local health department, and so is different from the state average.
The researchers do not know the specific amount of bias for their estimate, but they recognize that there is likely some bias. Their best estimate is that the actual rate for the state is most likely within +/-10% of the sample community, but it is plausible that the extrapolation is off by as much as 25%. To fit these probabilities, the researchers use a symmetrical triangular distribution from .75 to 1.25 of the point estimate (i.e., zero probability density at .75, linearly increasing to the midpoint, 1.0, and linearly decreasing to zero at 1.25). They could have chosen a normal distribution or various other similarly-shaped distributions to represent these beliefs with similar outcomes.
This new source of error now combines with the original underestimate to produce a probability density for the total number of cases in the state. The additional uncertainty from random sampling error is small and can be ignored as inconsequential. Alternatively, the random sampling error could be incorporated into the researchers' subjective probability. (Objectively determinable stochastic processes can be brought into the uncertainty calculation differently from subjective uncertainty, but this introduces complexity that is left for future analyses. The purpose of the present analysis is to consider cases where sampling error is absent or is insignificant compared to other sources of error.)
The density for a given final value, x, which results from a calculation involving two uncertain values is the integral across values of the two functions that produce x. In the present case, this is relatively simple to calculate. The probability distribution for the total number of cases in the state is described by the continuous approximation:
where the definition of g(t) describes the triangular distribution and h(s) the uniform distribution, and k is the scale factor to make f(x) a probability density function. The continuous approximation is necessary not just for computational convenience, but because the form of the error distributions was continuous. Since our practical interest is for ranges of values, and not the exact probability for a given value, nothing is lost by this approximation.
For this distribution, the middle 90% of the probability mass falls in the range 260,000 to 380,000. A normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and a standard deviation of .11 would also have represented the researchers' beliefs about the bias from extrapolation, and would have yielded the same interval (after rounding) for the middle 90% of the probability mass.
Solving this equation (and thus figuring out uncertainty intervals) is easy. But adding much more complication makes it unwieldy. A third layer of multiplicative uncertainty would require a double integral over a more complicated product, and so on. An uncertain input that entered the equation other than by multiplying would be more complicated still. Indeed, simply using the normal distribution for the uncertainty from the extrapolation would make this calculation considerably more complicated. The implication is clear: with more than a few simple sources of uncertainty, closed-form (analytic) calculation is not a practical method for quantifying it.
Estimating complex combinations of uncertainty
Any calculation with a large number of inputs is likely to resist closed-form calculation of uncertainty and intuitive statements about total uncertainty are likely to be worthless. ("Large," in this case, can mean as few as three or four inputs if they all introduce uncertainty.) However, there are tools developed in finance and engineering that can be used to calculate uncertainty in such health research.
To estimate the probability density for parameters of interest given multiple uncertain input values, we propose using Monte Carlo (random number-based) numerical methods as follows:
1. Probability distributions are specified for the inputs, as presented above.
2. A random draw is made from each of those distributions, producing one set of possible true values. The calculation (the same one used to generate the point estimate) is carried out for those values to produce a possible final value of the estimate.
3. Step 2 is iterated a large number of times, producing a new candidate value for each new set of random draws.
4. These values are recorded, and can then be used to calculate the probability of the true value being in a particular interval or grouped into fixed-width intervals and represented by a histogram that approximates the probability density function for the total uncertainty.
This approach takes a difficult problem and approximates the answer by carrying out simple calculations a large number of times. Since these simple calculations are the ones that had to be constructed to get the point estimate in the first place, a relatively small amount of extra effort is required. Monte Carlo simulations of this sort are used extensively for similar calculations of uncertainty in business and engineering applications (often under the rubric "risk analysis"), and so there is user-friendly off-the-shelf software that does these calculations. (Further background in these applications is available, at the time of writing, from the manufacturer of the software we used at
Monte Carlo uncertainty calculations have been proposed for the errors in a typical epidemiologic study,
Indeed, the biggest challenge for quantifying uncertainty in these calculations – quantifying the various input uncertainties – is partially ameliorated by the ease with which different values can be run to produce sensitivity analyses. While sensitivity analyses cannot determine which values are better to use, they can point out which ones matter enough to warrant more attention.
A Monte Carlo-based uncertainty calculation
As an example of a calculation combining many sources of uncertainty, we use a simplified version of Mead et al.'s frequently-quoted calculation of the incidence of foodborne disease in the U.S.
Mead et al.'s calculation was based on literally hundreds of input numbers, including:
• the U.S. rate of total gastrointestinal illness,
• foodborne illness case counts from passive surveillance (data reported voluntarily from clinics) and outbreak reports (health department investigations),
• case counts from active surveillance (attempts to enumerate every case) at five county- or state-level sites,
• several estimates of how many unobserved cases are represented by one observed case (in order to extrapolate from data to true values),
• estimates of the fraction of cases of each disease that should be attributed to food,
• several other extrapolations.
The need to understand and quantify uncertainty is obvious when we observe that Mead et al., despite the clearly uncertain data and calculations, emphasized (in the abstract and press releases) a result to two significant figures, 76 million U.S. cases per year, with no statement of uncertainty or a plausible range of values. Widely quoted in this form, this number implies that the experts are confident that the result is not 75 million or 77 million, but is somewhere between 75.5 and 76.5 million. After all, they did not report 80 million, which would tend to imply less precision. (Note a weakness of relying on significant figures alone: If they had reported 75 million, it would not have been clear whether they were rounding to the nearest 1, 5, or 25 million. This would only become clear if multiple numbers, all with the same rounding, were reported.) The body of the Mead et al. paper actually contains an estimate to ten significant figures. (Such overly precise reporting could be justified in a paper if intended to help the reader duplicate the calculations, rather than as a conclusory statement. This is unlikely to be the explanation in the present case, since their calculation is difficult to duplicate from the information given and this kind of replication is not common in health research.)
Monte Carlo-based numerical methods allow us to estimate the uncertainty for calculations as complicated as Mead et al.'s. The complexity of their effort to use existing, highly incomplete data to estimate U.S. foodborne disease incidence is illustrated by the spreadsheet we developed to duplicate their calculations, which includes over 200 numerical cells, more than 50 of which are inputs from outside information. Even if we believe that the analysis reflected science's best knowledge about these values, we can be sure that such an estimate is not accurate to better than 2%. But what more can we say about the range of possible values?
To answer this, we examined the various inputs and the certainty of their sources, and developed a model that incorporated estimates for each source of uncertainty. For the current example, we use a simplified version of the calculation, reducing the list of 28 different diseases to the 3 that contributed the most to the total plus an "other" category, and simplifying some of the multiplicative correction factors used in the original. The first example presented here uses conservative uncertainty distributions that are relatively small and mean-preserving (i.e., they use the original Mead et al. point estimates as the distribution mean). Even with this optimistic level of uncertainty, it is easy to see the need to avoid implying too much precision.
The calculation is summarized in Table
Table 1
Simplified calculation of foodborne disease incidence.
Infectious Agent
Estimated Total Cases
Observed Cases
Estimated %
Foodborne Transmission
Foodborne Incidence
Campylobacter spp
Salmonella, nontyphoidal
Norwalk-like viruses
Total for Known Pathogens
Multiplier, observed to total cases
Total cases of gastroenteritis
of unknown origin (subtract)
Illness of known etiology, % foodborne (divide)
Foodborne illness, unknown etiology (multiply)
Total foodborne illness (not rounded)
Boldface = parameters with uncertainty distributions in the example.
Every one of these inputs introduces uncertainty. To reflect this, we introduced the following distributions. (Most of these distributions have some external basis. However, this calculation should be seen primarily as a demonstration of the methods for doing the analysis and a rough estimate of the minimal uncertainty in Mead et al.'s number, rather than a claim that these are the right distributions.) For the total cases of each of the three identified diseases, the point estimate is replaced by a normal distribution, with a mean of the point estimate and a standard deviation of 10 percent of the point estimate. For the 25 other pathogens, which each contributed a relatively small portion of the total, we simply used the point estimates because the uncertainty for each is inconsequential. (Assuming their errors are uncorrelated, they tend to average out, leaving a relatively tight distribution of total uncertainty. If one believes that inaccuracies in the estimates of incidence rates are correlated across diseases, the overall uncertainty would be greater.) For the multiplicative factor used for two of those, we used a symmetrical triangular distribution centered on the original 38, with a range of (24,52).
For the percent of each disease attributable to food, we used the point estimates for two of the pathogens because they were fairly close to 100% (leaving little room for error) and appeared to be reasonably solid estimates. The remaining pathogen, Norwalk-like viruses, accounts for most of the total cases and the fraction that are foodborne is highly uncertain and far from either 0 or 100%, leaving room for substantial variation. Not only does this percentage affect the estimated number of foodborne cases of that disease, but it dominates the overall estimated percentage of gastroenteritis cases attributed to food, and thus the estimate for cases of unknown etiology. Given the large impact of uncertainty in this input parameter, we conduct a sensitivity analysis for its impact below. For the initial example, we modeled the uncertainty as a uniform distribution on [20%,60%], centered on the Mead et al. point estimate of 40 percent.
For total cases of gastroenteritis, we used a normal distribution with a mean of the original point estimate, and a standard deviation of 20 percent of the original estimate. To represent the uncertainty of the assumption that the portion of gastroenteritis cases of unknown origin attributable to foodborne pathogens is the same as for cases of known origin, we draw the portion of unknown cases from a normal distribution around the portion of known cases (after it is calculated, since it varies with each iteration) with a standard deviation of 8 percentage points.
This example was constructed and calculated using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and the off-the-shelf Monte Carlo simulation package, Crystal Ball (Decisioneering Inc., Denver, Colorado). We ran half a million iterations of the model, producing the histogram in Figure
Figure 1
Approximate distribution of true foodborne disease incidence (base example)
Approximate distribution of true foodborne disease incidence (base example)
(The Microsoft Excel 2000 spreadsheet used to run the Crystal Ball simulation is available as a
Additional file 1
Click here for file
What should we make of such a result? That depends on our goal for the estimate in the first place. If the goal is to get an estimate into the scientific literature for others to use, it is probably a good idea to report the entire distribution, along with sensitivity analyses, and let others use them as they will. Researchers interested in combining this with other estimates of the value in question might want to look at how likely the other estimates are according to this calculation and how likely this estimate is according to other calculations. A sophisticated policy maker trying to figure out how much attention to devote to this problem might want to look at the probability that the total was greater than some critical level, say ten million or one hundred million. Indeed, even a rough cut might be sufficient to answer important policy questions (e.g., "we are pretty sure that there are more than fifty million cases per year, which means this is a bigger problem than most people think").
Sensitivity analysis
This method for quantifying uncertainty lends itself easily to sensitivity analysis of the inputs. The quantification of uncertainty is itself is sometimes called a sensitivity analysis, but despite involving some of the same math, uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis are fundamentally different. A sensitivity analysis asks questions like, "if we are wrong about a certain input, how much does our best estimate change?" An uncertainty distribution does not answer that question. Rather, the uncertainty distribution
For example, compare a second estimate, identical except that the distribution of foodborne attribution for Norwalk-like viruses is [40%,60%] instead of the previous values of [20%,60%]. (This is chosen primarily to be illustrative and emphasize the effect of changing the mean and variance of the range. It turns out, though, that Mead et al. based their input of 40% on a single rough estimate in the literature which was 47%, so the new mean of 50% is actually closer.) The result, represented in Figure
Figure 2
Approximate distribution of true foodborne disease incidence (sensitivity analysis example)
Approximate distribution of true foodborne disease incidence (sensitivity analysis example)
It is possible to quantify uncertainty in complex calculations in health research, as is commonly done for non-sample-based calculations in business or engineering. In addition to simply being a more accurate presentation of scientific knowledge, such quantification could dramatically increase the value of the underlying estimates in several ways. It would clarify whether the estimates are certain enough for the purposes for which they are used. Furthermore, it would suggest how likely further research is to produce a substantially different answer and would direct such research toward improving the particular inputs that create more of the uncertainty. The notion of reporting uncertainty sometimes provokes opposition, as if the revelation of uncertainty were responsible for creating the uncertainty. But quantification does not introduce uncertainty that did not previously exist, but rather, replaces ignorance about the magnitude of that uncertainty with the best available knowledge.
Competing interests
Phillips and a few of his students have received free short-term licences for the Crystal Ball software (though this analysis was carried out using previously purchased copies). After this paper was written and reviewed, but before resubmission, Phillips was briefly retained as an expert witness by The Delaco Company in litigation related to the phenylpropanolamine study that is briefly mentioned.
Authors' contributions
CVP conceived of the goal, developed the method of analysis, created the simple examples in the manuscript, and simplified the final example for the manuscript. LML carried out the research and original analysis of the in-depth example (foodborne illness) and created the programming for the calculation. CVP composed the manuscript; LML read and approved the final manuscript.
The authors acknowledge the contributions of George Maldonado and Craig Hedberg, collaborators in related analyses, and thank Karen J Goodman, Charlie Poole, and Steven Cole for helpful comments on the manuscript.
Using Monte Carlo Methods to Quantify the Multiple Sources of Error in Studies. Abstract of presentation at 32nd Annual Meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research, Baltimore, June 1999
Applying Fully-Articulated Probability Distributions. Abstract of presentation at 33rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research, Seattle, June 2000
Quantifying and Reporting Uncertainty from Systematic Errors
Quantified Uncertainty and High-Cost Public Health Decisions: The Case of Phenylpropanolamine. Abstract of presentation at 35rd Annual Meeting of the Society for Epidemiologic Research, Palm Desert, June 2002
The Economics of "More Research is Needed"
A sensitivity analysis to separate bias due to confounding from bias due to predicting misclassification by a variable that does both
Basic methods for sensitivity analysis and external adjustment
Traffic Safety Facts, 1999
Phenylpropanolamine and the Risk of Hemorrhagic Stroke
Food-Related Illness and Death in the United States
Annual Foodborne Illness in the United States
Considering Uncertainty in Comparing the Burden of Illness due to Foodborne Microbial Pathogens
The Human Health Impact of Fluoroquinolone Resistant Campylobacter Attributed to the Consumption of Chicken
Pre-publication history
The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:


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This is one of the cutest songs from the film Masoom (1960) showing a very cute relationship between grandparents and grandchildren. It is also a very big hit and caters o every child in the world.
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Batzner Pest Management, New Berlin, joins the National Pest Management Association (NPMA) in
celebrating April as National Pest Management Month, an observance that has been taking place for
more than 30 years.
In honor of this special month, both Batzner and the NPMA this year are raising awareness about
the public health risks posed by structural pests and encouraging business and home owners to take
proactive steps to prevent pest infestations in their properties.
"A pest is capable of spreading human disease(s) or otherwise impacting human health, so controlling
that pest becomes a public health concern. People should know that the risks of pest infestations can
include tick-borne and/or mosquito-borne diseases, injurious bites or stings from rodents or insects, and
respiratory irritation from exposure to cockroach litter," says Jerry Batzner, president of the family-
owned pest management company bearing his name. "Cockroach allergens are known to trigger asthma
attacks, especially in children. Mosquitoes can carry West Nile virus, and stinging insects send more than
half a million people to the emergency room every year. Pests, such as mice, cockroaches, and flies
also have the ability to transfer pathogens of food borne illnesses, he says.
"People should also be aware of the serious property threats that pests like termites, carpenter ants
and rodents can pose." Batzner explains that termites and carpenter ants have the ability to chew
through wood beams, walls, floors and even wallpaper and cause costly damage. Rodents can spark
house fires if they gnaw through electrical wiring or build nests close to heat sources.
"During April, we're urging property owners to learn more about pest management and to take steps
to prevent infestations before they occur. Pest pressure increases significantly in spring and summer,
which is why simple measures like sealing cracks and crevices around the home, keeping kitchen
counters and floors clean and free of crumbs, sealing garbage cans and eliminating sources of still-
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DEAR ABBY - Mom is 61. She lost her husband (my dad) six months ago. They had been married for 37 years. He used to do almost everything for her. Now her world has changed because she must do things for herself -- like doing the dishes or paying the … more
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DEAR ABBY - Was I spreading gossip by telling my former husband that our granddaughter's wedding was off? We had just returned from their engagement party. It is my understanding that one wants to cancel, while the other wants to go through with … more
DEAR ABBY - My parents and I live on opposite coasts of the United States. I have visited them many times over the years. I'd like them to visit me, but my mother refuses to travel. (She is healthy and not scared of flying or traveling.) At … more
DEAR ABBY - I have been seeing "Russell" for about a year. Last March he told me he had to move in with his grandmother because "he was the only bachelor in the family who could take care of her." Stupidly, I believed him. Not long after that, I … more
DEAR ABBY - I'm 48 and the father of a 3-year-old son I love very much. His mother, "Chelsea," is 45. They live with me, although Chelsea and I are not romantically involved. Our son was an "oops" baby, but we chose to live together so we could have … more
DEAR ABBY - I'm a 51-year-old gay male. I have a sweet, dear friend I'll call "Samantha" who is slightly older. The problem is, she wants more than friendship. She insists on spending time with me and calls me daily. She hugs me repeatedly when she … more
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text:
+726 Strength
+1413 Strength
+622 Strength
+999 Strength
+465 Strength
+1020 Strength
+496 Strength
+1291 Strength
+564 Strength
+497 Strength
+562 Strength
+718 Strength
This feature lists your most prevalent gear bonuses. You may select a bonus to see which items provide that bonus.
Strength: 9850
Primary attribute for Barbarians and Crusaders.
Increases all damage for Barbarians and Crusaders by 9850.00%.
Increases Armor by 9850.
Dexterity: 77
Primary attribute for Demon Hunters and Monks.
Increases all damage for Demon Hunters and Monks by 77.00%.
Increases Armor by 7.70%.
Intelligence: 77
Primary attribute for Witch Doctors and Wizards.
Increases all damage for Witch Doctors and Wizards by 77.00%.
Increases resistances by 7.7.
Vitality: 6844
Increases Life, allowing more damage to be taken before dying.
Each point of Vitality increases Life by 100.
Armor: 14558
Reduces all damage from enemies of the same level as you by 0.00%.
Damage: 1363250.00
The amount of damage per second you can deal.
Damage is based on your weapons, attributes, attack speed, Critical Hit Chance,
Critical Hit Damage, passive skills, and dual-wielding attack speed increase.
Toughness: 24784300
The total amount of raw damage you can take.
Toughness is based on your maximum Life, armor, dodge chance,
average resistances, and missile, melee, and elite damage reduction.
Recovery: 438610
The amount of Toughness you can recover every second in combat.
Recovery is based on your Toughness, Life per Hit, Life per Second, Life per Kill,
Life per Fury/Spirit/Wrath Spent, Life Steal, and Health Globe Healing Bonus.
Maximum Life: 920758
If you lose all your Life, you die.
Life can be increased by skills, items, and Vitality.
Fury 111/111
Generated when the Barbarian uses Fury generating skills
or takes damage. Used for more powerful Barbarian attacks.
|Missile Ward
|Mass Control
|Crippling Shot
|Powered Shot
Last updated on Jun 1, 2016 4:03 PM PDT


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Location map of Oddbins
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Lord Hills Bridge, London, Bayswater, W2 6ET
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The London Borough of Westminster
City of Westminster It is impossible to even begin to capture everything that Westminster - the seat of Britain's government - has to offer. From stately Buckingham Palace and the Houses of Parliament to the raucous Soho nightlife, from the bustle of Oxford Street, to the rolling vistas of the Royal Parks it would take weeks to describe everything to see and do in London's heartland. It also contains some of the best shopping in London, with Covent Garden's bustling market, the boutiques of Soho and Carnaby Street, and the towering department stores around Oxford Circus. As the shops close, London's West End comes alive, with dozens of theatres and music venues, and hundreds of bars and restaurants making sure that this is a borough that never sleeps.
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Cory Arcangel: Currentmood
Exhibitions | Until 2nd July 2016
Lisson Gallery 2.01 miles from Oddbins
The artist provides a technological exploration of obsession and obsolescence based on trivia and ephemera found on the internet....More
Serpentine Pavilion And Summer Houses 2016
Exhibitions | Until 9th October 2016
Serpentine Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
The Serpentine Galleries has expanded its internationally acclaimed programme of exhibiting architecture in a built form by commissioning four architects ...More
Tabor Robak: Drinking Bird Seasons
Exhibitions | Until 13th November 2016
Serpentine Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
A single-channel video work which serves as a commentary on the intrusiveness of digital information and the reliance on technical ...More
Serpentine Gallery Pavilion 2016: Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG)
Exhibitions | Until 9th October 2016
Serpentine Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
This summer the Serpentine Pavilion, the annual architectural project commissioned by the Serpentine Gallery, goes beyond its usual scope ...More
Alex Katz
Exhibitions | Until 11th September 2016
Serpentine Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
American artist Alex Katz 's stylised figurative portraits were the subject of several major museum exhibitions in ...More
Etel Adnan
Exhibitions | Until 11th September 2016
Serpentine Sackler Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
The first solo exhibition in a UK public institution dedicated to the Lebanese-American painter, ...More
Etel Adnan: The Weight Of The World
Exhibitions | Until 11th September 2016
Serpentine Sackler Gallery 2.3 miles from Oddbins
Paintings, drawings, poetry, film and tapestry by the Beirut artist....More
Madame Tussaud - Waxing Lyrical
Theatre | Until 3rd July 2016
Canal Cafe Theatre 2.71 miles from Oddbins
Longest Reign
Exhibitions | Until 31st December 2016
Kensington Palace State Apartments 2.85 miles from Oddbins
A film installation celebrating key moments in the lives of Queen Victoria and Queen Elizabeth II, from the milestone coronations, ...More
Anarchy In The UK: PUNKLONDON
Exhibitions | Until 12th August 2016
Richard Young Gallery 3.07 miles from Oddbins
London Hotels
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Please remember to follow the manual of style and code of conduct at all times.
Check BNN and Bulbanews for up-to-date Pokémon news and discuss it on the forums or in our IRC channel #bulbagarden on irc.systemnet.info.
Check BNN and Bulbanews for up-to-date Pokémon news and discuss it on the forums or in our IRC channel #bulbagarden on irc.systemnet.info.
W Promotional cards (TCG)
From Bulbapedia, the community-driven Pokémon encyclopedia.
The W Promotional cards are reprints of one selected card from a Pokémon Trading Card Game expansion with a gold foil "W" stamp on it.
The stamp featured on the cards is a stylised "W", which represents part of the original Wizards of the Coast logo. Similar to the original run of Prerelease cards, Wizards only produced a small amount of these (7 cards from 6 expansions). The majority of them were affiliated with Pokémon-related magazines. Foil stamped cards would not make an appearance again until the Best of Game promotional cards. It is possible that the "W" may have been the inspiration to stamp the special versions of these cards with "winner".
Card list
|This article is part of Project TCG, a Bulbapedia project that aims to report on every aspect of the Pokémon Trading Card Game.
Latest Pokemon News
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Relevant offers
Middle East
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered a gloomy assessment of peace prospects with the Palestinians today as US Secretary of State John Kerry began his 10th visit to the region in pursuit of a deal.
"There is growing doubt in Israel that the Palestinians are committed to peace," said Netanyahu, speaking with Kerry at his side and accusing Palestinian officials of orchestrating a campaign of "unabated incitement" against Israel.
In the days before Kerry's latest trip to Jerusalem, Palestinian leaders have likewise accused Israel of trying to sabotage the talks aimed at ending their decades-old conflict.
Kerry focused his remarks on a continued US push toward a final peace agreement, which Washington hopes to achieve by April, and his shorter-term pursuit of a framework deal that would pave the way for a permanent accord.
He said Israeli and Palestinian leaders were nearing the point, or were already at it, where they would have to make tough decisions, and he pledged to work with both sides more intensely to try to narrow differences on a framework agreement.
Guidelines in such an accord would address core issues such as the borders of a future Palestinian state, security, Palestinian refugees and the status of Jerusalem, Kerry said.
"It would create the fixed, defined parameters by which the parties would then know where they are going and what the end result can be," he said. "This will take time and it will take compromise from both sides, but an agreed framework would be a significant breakthrough."
On key issues in the conflict, leaders from both sides have sounded far apart this week.
Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Zeev Elkin on Thursday rejected the creation of a Palestinian state based on the lines pre-dating the 1967 Six-Day War, in which Israel captured and occupied Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank.
"The Jordan Valley must be under Israeli sovereignty forever," he said, referring to the border area with Jordan, from which Palestinians want a full Israeli withdrawal.
"The 1967 borders are Auschwitz borders," Ha'aretz newspaper quoted him as saying, suggesting that a return to the narrower boundaries that existed before the conflict would lead to the destruction of Israel.
On Tuesday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas renewed a call for all Israeli settlers and soldiers within the lands captured in 1967 to be withdrawn, saying he would not hesitate to reject a bad deal.
"We will say 'yes' to any ideas suggested to us which meet our rights. But we will not fear and will not hesitate for a moment ... to say 'no', whatever the pressure, to any proposal which detracts from or doesn't fulfil the higher national interests of our people," he said in a speech.
Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat last month said a framework agreement could allow the talks to be continued for another year. However, earlier this week, he said the U.S.-brokered talks were "failing", and threatened to haul Israel before the International Criminal Court.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, a senior US State Department official said Kerry was not expecting a breakthrough during his latest visit, when he will also meet with Abbas.
Kerry said today he did not intend to impose US ideas, but to "facilitate the parties' own efforts".
- Reuters
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