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Authors for macroblog are Dave Altig, John Robertson, and other Atlanta Fed economists and researchers.
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July 01, 2015
Far Away Yet Close to Home: Discussing the Global Economy's Effects
In case you needed any motivation to take interest in the outcome of ongoing negotiations between the Greek government and its international creditors, this excerpt from the Wall Street Journal ought to do it:
Global growth is really important. We are all connected through the financial markets, through foreign-exchange markets," Fed governor Jerome Powell said last week in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. "If global growth weakens, or remains weak, and we get into a trend of that, then yes, that will be a big headwind for the United States economy."
Last week, I participated in the latest edition of our webcast, ECONversations, devoted to the theme "what to make of the first quarter?" (The webcast can be found here). The conversation revolved around the Atlanta Fed staff's view of why 2015 began with such a whimper and ideas on prospects for improvement through the balance of the year.
Not surprisingly, the international context loomed large. Between June 2014 and March 2015, the U.S. dollar appreciated by about 14 percent against a broad basket of currencies, and by about 20 percent against major currencies. The dollar has roughly remained in those neighborhoods since. As to the gross domestic product (GDP) side of the story, arithmetically net exports subtracted almost 2 percentage points off first quarter growth.
A key assumption of our current outlook is that the international environment (including the exchange rate) will stabilize, and smoother sailing without the "big headwind" referenced by Governor Powell is ahead.
That assumption generated some discussion (in the Q&A part of the webcast, and via online questions). With some paraphrasing, here are a few of the comments and questions we received, and my best attempt to respond:
Q: You associate the prior appreciation in the dollar with a several percentage point subtraction from growth in the first quarter. This seems quite large in context of available research on the elasticity of the trade balance to movements in the foreign exchange value of the dollar.
A: In the webcast, I did loosely refer to the trade effect on first quarter GDP as a "dollar effect." But the questioner—Barclay's head of U.S. economics research, Michael Gapen— is completely correct in asserting that standard estimates wouldn't support exchange-rate appreciation as an all-encompassing explanation for the big first quarter trade deficit. Our own estimates imply that four quarters after an exchange rate shock that raises the real broad-dollar index by 10 percentage points, real GDP is about one-half a percentage point lower than it would have been without the shock. This impact is roughly the same as most standard estimates (including Barclay's).
Some analyses might imply a larger GDP impact for the pure dollar effect, but any reasonable estimate would leave a fair amount of the first quarter net export decline unexplained. In any event, exchange-rate movements are both cause and effect, which brings us to:
Q: I have a question regarding the impact of the U.S. dollar (USD) in the economy. We often learn that changes in the real exchange rate affect the economy with a lag. Take Japan, for instance. It had a substantial depreciation in Japanese yen (JPY) real exchange rate but with very minimal impact on Japan's trade performance so far. What makes you so confident that the strong USD has had a strong impact in the U.S. economy in such a short period of time? Wouldn't the negative contribution from net exports more likely be linked to delays in West Coast ports and the sharp slowdown in Asian economies (China, in particular)?
A: Yes, in our analysis (and most we know of), the effects of exchange rates occur with a lag. And, as noted above, only a fraction of the decline in net exports by the end of 2014 and into the beginning of this year can be plausibly attributed to dollar appreciation. But we do think those effects are there, and they are continuing (to a lesser extent) in the current quarter.
Of course, changes in the value of the currency are an effect of other developments as well as a cause of changes in exports, GDP, and the like. All else is not typically equal, which often makes simple correlations (or, in the Japanese case, the lack thereof) difficult to interpret.
One of those "not equal" things could well have been the port delays. We don't have a firm estimate of how the backlogs might have affected the first quarter GDP statistic. If the impact was indeed material, we should see some reversal in the second and third quarters now that things are apparently getting back to normal. We'll count that as an upside risk.
And looking forward?
Q: Shouldn't the economic crisis in Greece dampen the demand for American exports and decrease growth well into the fourth quarter?
A: The good news is that current forecasts suggest 2015 euro-area growth will exceed its 2014 pace (according to the World Bank). In fact, the 2015 forecast strengthened over the course of this year despite the ongoing uncertainty associated with the Greek crisis. By most accounts, Canadian economic activity this year is expected to follow a trajectory similar to the United States (in like a lamb, out like something less lambish).
Mexico, as well, is expected to show more growth this year than last, despite some softening of the outlook since the beginning of the year. Put those three together (expanding the euro area to the entire European Union), and you have the anticipation of some improvement in countries accounting for somewhere in the neighborhood of 55 percent of our export markets.
The bad news is the ongoing uncertainty associated with the Greek crisis. Further, the outlook in emerging economies is growing more downbeat. These realities—a continuing impact of prior dollar appreciation and the fact that better foreign growth still does not equate to great growth—has us reluctant to think that net exports will be a big positive number in this year's GDP calculations. That reluctance notwithstanding, for now we are writing in a smaller trade deficit over the course of the year than what we saw in the first quarter.
If you want to go into the July 4 holiday on a somewhat optimistic note, I'll note that our GDPNow estimates for the second quarter have strengthened substantially with the arrival of more recent data—notably including signals of a much lower trade deficit effect than in the first quarter and today's positive news on manufacturing and nonresidential construction. Those data may not be enough to generate full confidence in our forecast for a much better second half of 2015, but they are moving in the right direction.
July 1, 2015 in Economic Growth and Development, GDP | Permalink
April 17, 2015
Déjà Vu All Over Again
In a recent interview, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said, "The first quarter was poor. That seems to be a new seasonal pattern. It's been that way for about four of the last five years."
The picture below illustrates the vice chair's sentiment. Output in the first quarter has grown at a paltry 0.6 percent during the past five years, compared to a 2.9 percent average during the remaining three quarters of the year.
What's causing this pattern? Well, it could be we just get really unlucky at the same time every year. Or, it could be a more technical problem with seasonal adjustment after the Great Recession (this paper by Jonathan Wright covers the topic using payroll data). It also seems likely that we can just blame the weather (see this Wall Street Journal blog post).
Whatever the reason for the first-quarter weakness, it appears to be happening again. Our current quarterly tracking estimate—GDPNow—has first-quarter growth hovering just above zero. As for the rest of the year, we'll have to wait and see. We of course hope it follows the postrecession pattern.
April 17, 2015 in Economic Growth and Development, GDP | Permalink
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I blame China and the Lunar New Year which as Asia grows in importance introduces seasonal volatility into 1Q. For proof look at table 2 contribution to GDP in the bea release. 1Q contribution from net trade is always negative in 1Q.
I also blame the Govt, both 4Q and 1Q are very seasonal ever since 2010.
Possibly blame global climate change as the winters are colder and summers are warmer this introduces larger swings in utility usage
Posted by:
Mike Donnelly |
April 29, 2015 at 11:27 AM
April 06, 2015
Is Measurement Error a Likely Explanation for the Lack of Productivity Growth in 2014?
Over the past three years nonfarm business sector labor productivity growth has averaged only around 0.75 percent—well below historical norms. In 2014 it was negative, as can be seen in chart 1.
The previous macroblog post by Atlanta Fed economist John Robertson looked at possible economic explanations for why the labor productivity data, taken at face value, have been relatively weak in recent years. In this post I look at the extent to which "measurement error" can account for the weakness we have seen in the data. By measurement error, I mean incomplete data and/or sampling errors that are reduced when more comprehensive data are available several years later. I do not mean the inherent difficulties in measuring productivity in sectors such as health care or information technology.
As seen in chart 1, negative four-quarter productivity growth rates have been quite infrequent in nonrecessionary periods since 1948. In S. Borağan Aruoba's 2008 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking article "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," he found that initial estimates of annual productivity growth are negatively correlated with subsequent revisions. That is, low productivity growth rates tend to be revised up while high rates tend to be revised down. This is illustrated in chart 2.
In each of the panels, points in the scatterplot represent an initial estimate of fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter productivity growth together with a revised estimate published either one or three years later. For example, the green points in each plot show estimates of productivity growth over the four quarters ending in the fourth quarter of 2011. In each plot, the x-coordinate shows the March 7, 2012, estimate of this growth rate (0.3 percent). The y-coordinate of the green dot in chart 2a shows the March 7, 2013, estimate of fourth-quarter 2011/fourth-quarter 2010 productivity growth (0.4 percent) while the y-coordinate of the green dot in chart 2b shows the March 5, 2015, estimate (0.0 percent).
In each chart, the red dashed line shows the predicted revised value of productivity growth as a function of the early estimate (using a simple linear regression). Chart 2a shows that, on average, we would expect almost no revision to the most recent estimate of four-quarter productivity growth one year later. Chart 2b, however, shows that low initial estimates of productivity growth tend to be revised up three years later while high estimates tend to be revised down. Based on this regression line, the current estimate of -0.1 percent fourth-quarter 2014/fourth-quarter 2013 productivity growth is expected to be revised up to 0.3 percent by April 2018.
The intuition for this is fairly straightforward. Low productivity growth could come about from either underestimating output growth, overestimating growth in hours worked, or a combination of the two. Which of these is most likely to occur, according to historical revisions? This is shown in chart 3, which plots the predicted revisions to four-quarter nonfarm employment growth and four-quarter nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth conditional on two assumed values for the initial estimate of four-quarter productivity growth: 0 percent (low) and 4 percent (high).
Nominal GDP is used instead of real GDP as methodological changes to the latter (e.g., the introduction of chain-weighting starting in 1996) make an apples-to-apples comparison of pre- and post-revised values difficult. Using fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter growth rates since 1981, the diamonds on the solid lines in chart 3 show that an initial estimate of 0 percent productivity growth would, on average, be associated with a three-year upward revision of 0.39 percentage point to four-quarter nominal GDP growth and a three-year downward revision of 0.10 percentage point to four-quarter nonfarm payroll employment.
With 4 percent productivity growth, the diamonds on the dashed lines show predicted three-year revisions to nominal GDP growth and employment growth of -0.40 percentage point and 0.14 percentage point, respectively. As the chart shows, these estimates are sensitive to the sample period used to predict the revisions. Using only data since 1989 (not shown), the regression would not predict a downward revision to employment growth conditional on an initial estimate of 0 percent productivity growth. Overall, however, the plot suggests that revisions to output growth are more sensitive to initial estimates of productivity growth than revisions to payroll employment growth are. This is consistent with the sentiments expressed by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at the March 30–April 1 Financial Markets Conference that employment or unemployment data may be more reliably measured than GDP.
Nevertheless, according to charts 2 and 3, the importance of measurement error in productivity growth is fairly modest. Ex-ante, we should not expect last year's puzzlingly low productivity growth simply to be revised away.
Editor's note: Upon request, the programming code and data for charts used in this macroblog post is available from the author.
April 6, 2015 in Economic Growth and Development, Productivity | Permalink
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September 15, 2014
The Changing State of States' Economies
Timely data on the economic health of individual states recently came from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The new quarterly state-level gross domestic product (GDP) series begins in 2005 and runs through the fourth quarter of 2013. The map below offers a look at how states have fared since 2005 relative to the economic performance of the nation as a whole.
It's interesting to see the map depict an uneven expansion between the second quarter of 2005 and the peak of the cycle in the fourth quarter of 2007. By the fourth quarter of 2008, most parts of the country were experiencing declines in GDP.
The U.S. economy hit a trough during the second quarter of 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, but 20 states and the District of Columbia recovered more quickly than the rest. The continued progress is easy to see, as is the far-reaching impact of the tsunami that hit Japan on March 11, 2011, which disrupted economic activity in many U.S. states. By the fourth quarter of 2013, only two states—Mississippi and Minnesota—experienced negative GDP.
The map shows that not all states are growing even when overall GDP is growing, and not all states are shrinking even when overall GDP is shrinking. But if we want to know more about which states are driving the change in overall GDP growth, then the geographic size of the state might not be so important.
Depicting states scaled to the size of their respective economies provides another perspective, because it's the relative size of a state's economy that matters when considering the contribution of state-level GDP growth to the national economy. The following chart uses bubbles (sized by the size of the state's economy) to depict changes in states' real GDP from the second quarter of 2005 through the fourth quarter of 2013.
This chart shows how the economies of larger states such as California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Illinois have an outsize influence on the national economy, despite some having a smaller geographic footprint. (Conversely, changes in the relatively small economy of a geographically large state like Montana have a correspondingly small impact on changes in the national economy.)
Overall GDP is now well above its prerecession peak. But have all states also fully recovered their GDP losses? The chart below depicts the cumulative GDP growth in each state from the end of 2007 to the end of 2013. The size of the circle represents the magnitude of the change in the level of real GDP between the end of 2007 and 2013. Most states have fully recovered in terms of GDP. (North Dakota's spectacular growth stands out, thanks to its boom in the oil and gas industry.) However, Florida, Nevada, Connecticut, Arizona, New Jersey, and Michigan had not returned to their prerecession spending levels as of the end of 2013. For Florida, Nevada, and Arizona, the depth of the collapse in those states' booming housing sectors is almost certainly responsible for the relative shortfall in performance since 2007.
The next release of the state-level GDP data, scheduled for September 26, will provide insight into the relative performance of state economies during the first quarter of 2014 at a time when overall GDP shrank by more than 2 percent (annualized rate). Some analysts have suggested that weather disruptions were a leading cause for that decline. The state-level GDP data will help tell the story.
By Whitney Mancuso, a senior economic analyst in the the Atlanta Fed's research department
September 15, 2014 in Economic conditions, Economic Growth and Development, Economics, GDP | Permalink
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August 21, 2014
Seeking the Source
As the early data on the third quarter begin to roll in, the (very tentative) conclusion is that nothing we know yet contradicts the consensus gross domestic product (GDP) forecast (from the Blue Chip panel, for example) of seasonally adjusted annualized Q3 growth in the neighborhood of 3 percent. The latest from our GDPNow model:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2014 was 3.0 percent on August 19, up from 2.8 percent on August 13. The nowcast for inventory investment ticked up following the Federal Reserve's industrial production release on August 15 while the nowcast for residential investment growth increased following this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The contribution of residential investment is obviously welcome, but the inventory contribution in the industrial production release tilts in the direction of one of our concerns about growth performance in the second quarter. Specifically, too much inventory spending, too little "core" spending.
On the plus side, our projections for current-quarter investment spending have been increasing, outside of nonresidential structures. On the much less positive side, the nowcast for consumer spending has been falling off and currently looks to expand at a pace barely above 2 percent.
Weakness over the course of this recovery in the key GDP expenditure components of consumer spending and investment has been the subject of a lot of commentary, recent entries being provided by Jonathon McCarthy (on the former, at Liberty Street Economics) and Jim Hamilton (on the latter, at Econbrowser). McCarthy in particular points to less-than-robust consumption expenditure as a source of growth since the end of the recession that has been slower than hoped for:
One contributor to the subdued pace of economic growth in this expansion has been consumer spending. Even though consumption growth has been somewhat stronger in the past couple of quarters, it has still been weak in this expansion relative to previous expansions.
An earlier version of the McCarthy theme appeared in this post on Atif Mian and Amir Sufi's House of Debt blog:
...the primary culprit: consumption of services and non-durable goods. They are shockingly weak relative to other recoveries.
There is something of a chicken-and-egg conundrum in all of this discussion. Has GDP growth disappointed because consumer and business spending has been lackluster? Or has consumer and business spending been weaker than we expected because GDP growth has lagged the pace of past recoveries?
In fact, the growth rates of consumption expenditure and business fixed investment—which excludes the residential housing piece—have not been particularly unusual over the course of this recovery once you account for the pace of GDP growth.
The following charts illustrate the average contributions of consumption and investment spending as a percent of average GDP growth for the 20 quarters following six of the last seven U.S. recessions. (I have excluded the period following the 1969–70 recession because 20 quarters after that downturn include the entirety of the 1973–75 recession.)
It is worth noting that these observations also apply to the components of consumption (across services, durables, and nondurables) and business fixed investment (across equipment and intellectual property and structures), as the following two charts show:
The conclusion is that if growth in consumption and investment has been particularly tepid over the course of the recovery, it merely reflects the historically tepid growth in GDP.
Or the other way around. These charts represent nothing more than arithmetic exercises, a mechanical decomposition of GDP growth into couple of the spending components that make up to the whole. They tell us nothing about causation.
What we have is the same too-full bag of possible explanations for why GDP has not yet returned to levels that—before the financial crisis—we would have associated with "potential": too much regulation, too little lending, excessive uncertainty, not enough government-driven demand, and so on. Maybe more investment spending would cause more growth. Maybe not.
In the language of the hot topic of the moment, this ultimately takes us to the debate over secular stagnation—what does it mean, does it exist, what is its cause if it does exist? Steve Williamson provides a useful summary of the debate, which is not yet at the point of providing actual answers. And unfortunately, the answers really matter.
August 21, 2014 in Economic Growth and Development, GDP | Permalink
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July 21, 2014
GDP Growth: Will We Find a Higher Gear?
We are still more than a week away from receiving the advance report for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) from April through June. Based on what we know to date, second-quarter growth will be a large improvement over the dismal performance seen during the first three months of this year. As of today, our GDPNow model is reading an annualized second-quarter growth rate at 2.7 percent. Given that the economy declined by 2.9 percent in the first quarter, the prospects for the anticipated near-3 percent growth for 2014 as a whole look pretty dim.
The first-quarter performance was dominated, of course, by unusual circumstances that we don't expect to repeat: bad weather, a large inventory adjustment, a decline in real exports, and (especially) an unexpected decline in health services expenditures. Though those factors may mean a disappointing growth performance for the year as a whole, we will likely be willing to write the first quarter off as just one of those things if we can maintain the hoped-for 3 percent pace for the balance of the year.
Do the data support a case for optimism? We have been tracking the six-month trends in four key series that we believe to be especially important for assessing the underlying momentum in the economy: consumer spending (real personal consumption expenditures, or real PCE) excluding medical services, payroll employment, manufacturing production, and real nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft.
The following charts give some sense of how things are stacking up. We will save the details for those who are interested, but the idea is to place the recent performance of each series, given its average growth rate and variability since 1990, in the context of GDP growth and its variability over that same period.
What do we learn from the foregoing charts? Three out of four of these series appear to be consistent with an underlying growth rate in the range of 3 percent. Payroll employment growth, in fact, is beginning to send signals of an even stronger pace.
Unfortunately, the series that looks the weakest relates to consumer spending. If we put any stock in some pretty basic economic theory, spending by households is likely the most forward-looking of the four measures charted above. That, to us, means a cautious attitude is the still the appropriate one. Or, to quote from a higher Atlanta Fed power:
... it will likely be hard to confirm a shift to a persistent above-trend pace of GDP growth even if the second-quarter numbers look relatively good.
This experience suggests to me that we can misread the vital signs of the economy in real time. Notwithstanding the mostly positive and encouraging character of recent data, we policymakers need to be circumspect when tempted to drop the gavel and declare the case closed. In the current situation, I feel it's advisable to accrue evidence and gain perspective. It will take some time to validate an outlook that assumes above-trend growth and associated solid gains in employment and price stability.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director, and
Pat Higgins, a senior economist, both in the Atlanta Fed's research department
July 21, 2014 in Data Releases, Economic Growth and Development, Forecasts, GDP | Permalink
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July 10, 2014
Introducing the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecasting Model
The June 18 statement from the Federal Open Market Committee opened with this (emphasis mine):
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months.... Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing.
I highlighted the business fixed investment (BFI) part of that passage because it contracted at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014. Any substantial turnaround in growth in gross domestic product (GDP) from its dismal first-quarter pace would seem to require that BFI did in fact resume its advance through the second quarter.
We won't get an official read on BFI—or on real GDP growth and all of its other components—until July 30, when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its advance (or first) GDP estimates for the second quarter of 2014. But that doesn't mean we are completely in the dark on what is happening in real time. We have enough data in hand to make an informed statistical guess on what that July 30 number might tell us.
The BEA's data-construction machinery for estimating GDP is laid out in considerable detail in its NIPA Handbook. Roughly 70 percent of the advance GDP release is based on source data from government agencies and other data providers that are available prior to the BEA official release. This information provides the basis for what have become known as "nowcasts" of GDP and its major subcomponents—essentially, real-time forecasts of the official numbers the BEA is likely to deliver.
Many nowcast variants are available to the public: the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, the Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the CNBC Rapid Update, for example. In addition, a variety of proprietary nowcasts are available to subscribers, including Aspen Publishers' Blue Chip Publications, Macroeconomic Advisers GDP Tracking, and Moody's Analytics high-frequency model.
With this macroblog post, we introduce the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's own nowcasting model, which we call GDPNow.
GDPNow will provide nowcasts of GDP and its subcomponents on a regularly updated basis. These nowcasts will be available on the pages of the Atlanta Fed's Center for Quantitative Economic Research (CQER).
A few important notes about GDPNow:
- The GDPNow model forecasts are nonjudgmental, meaning that the forecasts are taken directly from the underlying statistical model. (These are not official forecasts of either the Atlanta Fed or its president, Dennis Lockhart.)
- Because nowcasts are often based on both modeling and judgment, there is no reason to expect that GDPNow will agree with alternative forecasts. And we do not intend to present GDPNow as superior to those alternatives. Different approaches have their pluses and minuses. An advantage of our approach is that, because it is nonjudgmental, our methodology is easily replicable. But it is always wise to avoid reliance on a single model or source of information.
- GDPNow forecasts are subject to error, sometimes substantial. Internally, we've regularly produced nowcasts from the GDPNow model since introducing an earlier version of it in an October 2011 macroblog post. A real-time track record for the model nowcasts just before the BEA's advance GDP release is available on the CQER GDPNow webpage, and will be updated on a regular basis to help users make informed decisions about the use of this tool.
So, with that in hand, does it appear that BFI in fact "resumed its advance" last quarter? The table below shows the current GDPNow forecasts:
We will update the nowcast five to six times each month following the releases of certain key economic indicators listed in the frequently asked questions. Look for the next GDPNow update on July 15, with the release of the retail trade and business inventory reports.
If you want to dig deeper, the GDPNow page includes downloadable charts and tables as well as numerical details including the model's nowcasts for GDP, its subcomponents, and how the subcomponent nowcasts are built up from both the underlying source data and the model parameters. This working paper supplies the model's technical documentation. We hope economy watchers find GDPNow to be a useful addition to their information sets.
By Pat Higgins, a senior economist in the Atlanta Fed's research department
July 10, 2014 in Data Releases, Economic Growth and Development, Forecasts, GDP | Permalink
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Is there a link or RSS find one could follow to see each update of the GDPnow data?
Posted by:
Bryan Willman |
July 12, 2014 at 01:28 PM
Thanks for your question about GDPNow. To receive updates, please sign up for our e-mail notifications and select the Center for Quantitative Research. The e-mail subscription page link is at www.frbatlanta.org/webscriber/user/dsp_login.cfm. If you have any additional questions, please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com.
For more information about GDPNow, visit www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.cfm.
Posted by:
macroblog |
July 15, 2014 at 12:25 PM
August 30, 2013
Still Waiting for Takeoff...
On Thursday, we got a revised look at the economy's growth rate in the second quarter. While the 2.5 percent annualized rate was a significant upward revision from the preliminary estimate, it comes off a mere 1.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter. That combines for a subpar first-half growth rate of 1.8 percent. OK, it's growth, but not as strong as one would expect for a U.S. expansion and clearly a disappointment to the many forecasters who had once (again) expected this to be the year the U.S. economy shakes itself out of the doldrums.
Now, we're not blind optimists when it comes to the record of economic forecasts. We know well that the evidence says you shouldn't get overly confident in your favorite economists' prediction. Most visions of the economy's future have proven to be blurry at best.
Still, we at the Atlanta Fed want to know how to best interpret this upward revision to the second-quarter growth estimate and how it affects our president's baseline forecast "for a pickup in real GDP growth over the balance of 2013, with a further step-up in economic activity as we move into 2014."
What we can say about the report is that the revised second-quarter growth estimate is a decided improvement from the first quarter and a modest bump up from the recent four-quarter growth trend (1.6 percent). And there are some positive indicators within the GDP components. For example, real exports posted a strong turnaround last quarter, presumably benefiting from Europe's emerging from its recession. And the negative influence of government spending cuts, while still evident in the data, was much smaller than during the previous two quarters. Oh, and business investment spending improved between the first and second quarters.
All good, but these data simply give us a better fix on where we were in the second quarter, not necessarily a good signal of where we are headed. To that we turn to our "nowcast" estimate for the third quarter based on the incoming monthly data (the evolution of which is shown in the table below).
A "nowcasting" exercise generates quarterly GDP estimates in real time. The technical details of this exercise are described here, but the idea is fairly simple. We use incoming data on 100-plus economic series to forecast 12 components of GDP for the current quarter. We then aggregate those forecasts of GDP components to get a current-quarter estimate of overall GDP growth.
We caution that unlike others, our nowcast involves no interpretation whatsoever of these data. In what is purely a statistical exercise, we let the data do all the speaking for themselves.
Given the first data point of July—the July jobs report—the nowcast for the third quarter was pretty bleak (1.1 percent). Things improved a few days later with the release of strong international trade data for June, and stepped up further with the June wholesale trade report. But the remainder of the recent data point to a third-quarter growth rate that is very close to the lackluster performance of the first half.
In his speech a few weeks ago, President Dennis Lockhart indicated what he was looking for as drivers for stronger growth in the second half of this year.
"I expect consumer activity to strengthen."
Today's read on real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) probably isn't bolstering confidence in that view. Real PCE was virtually flat in July, undermining private forecasters' expectation of a moderate gain. Our nowcast for real GDP slipped down 0.5 percentage points to 1.4 percent on the basis of this data, and pegged consumer spending at 1.7 percent for Q3—in line with Q2's 1.8 percent gain.
"I expect business investment to accelerate somewhat."
The July data were pretty disappointing on this score. The durable-goods numbers released a few days ago were quite weak, causing our nowcast, and those of the others we follow, to revise down the third-quarter growth estimate.
"I expect the rebound we have seen in the housing sector to continue."
Check. Our nowcast wasn't affected much by the housing starts data, but the existing sales numbers produced a positive boost to the estimate. Our nowcast's estimate of residential investment growth in the third quarter is well under what we saw in the second quarter. But at 5.3 percent, the rebound looks to be continuing.
"I expect the recent improvement in exports to last."
Unfortunately, the July trade numbers don't get reported until next week. So we're going to mark this one as missing in action. But as we said earlier, that June trade number was strong enough to cause our third-quarter nowcast to be revised up a bit.
"And I expect to see an easing of the public-sector spending drag at the federal, state, and local levels."
Again, check. The July Treasury data indicated growth in government spending overall.
So the July data are a mixed bag: some positives, some disappointments, and some missing-in-actions. But if President Lockhart were to ask us (and something tells us he just might), we're likely to say that on the basis of the July indicators, the "pickup in real GDP growth over the balance of 2013" isn't yet very evident in the data.
This news isn't likely to come as a big surprise to him. Again, here's what he said publicly two weeks ago:
When I weigh the balance of risks around the medium-term outlook I laid out, I have some concerns about the potential for ambiguous or disappointing data. I also think that it is important to be realistic about the degree to which we are likely to have clarity in the near term about the direction of the economy. Both the quantity of information and the strength of the signal conveyed by the data will likely be limited. As of September, the FOMC will have in hand one more employment report, two reports on inflation, a revision to the second-quarter GDP data, and preliminary incoming signals about growth in the third quarter. I don't expect to have enough data to be sure of my outlook.
It's still a little early to say with any confidence we won't eventually see a pickup this quarter, and we can hope that the incoming August numbers show a more marked improvement. All we can say at this point is that after seeing most of the July data, it still feels like we're stuck on the tarmac.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist,
Patrick Higgins, senior economist, and
Brent Meyer, economist, all in the Atlanta Fed's research department
August 30, 2013 in Data Releases, Economic Growth and Development, Economics, Forecasts, GDP | Permalink
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June 28, 2012
Young versus mature small firms seeking credit
The ongoing tug of war between credit supply and demand issues facing small businesses is captured in this piece in the American Prospect by Merrill Goozner. Goozner asks whether small businesses are facing a tougher borrowing environment than is warranted by current economic conditions. One of the potential factors identified in the article is the relative decline in the number of community banks—down some 1,124 (or 13 percent of all banks from 2007). Community banks have traditionally been viewed as an important source of local financing for businesses and are often thought to be better able to serve the needs of small businesses than large national banks because of their more intimate knowledge of the business and the local community.
The Atlanta Fed's poll of small business can shed some light on this issue. In April we reached out to small businesses across the Sixth Federal Reserve District to ask about financing applications, how satisfied firms were that their financing needs were being met, and general business conditions. About one third of the 419 survey participants applied for credit in the first quarter of 2012, submitting between two and three applications for credit on average. As we've seen in past surveys (the last survey was in October 2011), the most common place to apply for credit was at a bank.
For the April 2012 survey, the table below shows the average success of firms applying to various financing sources (on a scale of 1 to 4, with 1 meaning none of the amount requested in the application was obtained, and 4 meaning that the firm received the full amount applied for). The table also shows the median age of businesses applying for each type of financing.
The results in the table show that for credit applications, Small Business Administration loan requests and applications for loans/lines of credit from large national banks tended to be the least successful, whereas applications for vendor trade credit and commercial loans/line-of-credit from community banks had the highest average success rating.
Notably, firms applying for credit at large national banks were typically much younger than firms applying at regional or community banks. If younger firms generally have more difficulty in getting credit regardless of where they apply, it could explain why we saw less success, on average, among firms applying at larger banks.
To investigate this issue, we compared the average application success among young firms (less than six years old) that applied at both regional or community banks and at large national banks, pooling the responses from the last few years of our survey. The credit quality of borrowers is controlled for by looking only at firms that applied at both types of institutions. What we found was no significant difference in the average borrowing success of young firms applying for credit across bank type—it just does seem to be tougher to get your credit needs met at a bank if you're running a young business. Interestingly, we also found that more mature firms were significantly more successful when applying at regional or community banks than at large national banks—it seems to be relatively easier for an established small business to obtain requested credit from a small bank.
While this analysis did not control for other factors that could also affect the likelihood of borrowing success, the results do suggest that Goozner's question about the impact of declining community bank numbers on small business lending is relevant. If small businesses are generally more successful when seeking credit from a small bank, will an ongoing reduction in the number of community banks substantially affect the ability of (mature) small businesses to get credit? More detailed insights from the April 2012 Small Business Credit Survey will be available soon on our Small Business Focus website, and we will provide an update when they are posted.
By John Robertson, vice president and senior economist,
Ellyn Terry, senior economic research analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 28, 2012 in Banking, Economic Growth and Development, Saving, Capital, and Investment | Permalink
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The table also reveals the average age of companies implementing for each kind of funding.
Posted by:
factoring company |
August 29, 2012 at 03:03 AM
May 17, 2012
Is inflation targeting really dead?
Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel (hat tip, Mark Thoma) is the latest econ-blogger to cast an admiring gaze in the direction of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) targeting. Frankel's post is titled "The Death of Inflation Targeting," and the demise apparently includes the notion of "flexible targeting." The obituary is somewhat ironic in that at least some of us believe that the U.S. central bank has recently taken a big step in the direction of institutionalizing flexible inflation targeting. Frankel, nonetheless, makes a case for nominal GDP targeting:
"One candidate to succeed IT [inflation targeting] as the preferred nominal monetary-policy anchor has lately received some enthusiastic support in the economic blogosphere: nominal GDP targeting. The idea is not new. It had been a candidate to succeed money-supply targeting in the 1980's, since it did not share the latter's vulnerability to so-called velocity shocks.
"Nominal GDP targeting was not adopted then, but now it is back. Its fans point out that, unlike IT, it would not cause excessive tightening in response to adverse supply shocks. Nominal GDP targeting stabilizes demand—the most that can be asked of monetary policy. An adverse supply shock is automatically divided equally between inflation and real GDP, which is pretty much what a central bank with discretion would do anyway."
That's certainly true, but a nominal GDP target is consistent with a stable inflation or price-level objective only if potential GDP growth is itself stable. Perhaps the argument is that plausible variations in potential GDP are not large enough or persistent enough to be of much concern. But that notion just begs the core question of whether the current output gap is big or small. At least for me, uncertainty about where GDP is relative to its potential remains the key to whether policy should be more or less aggressive.
In another recent blog item (also with a pointer from Mark Thoma), Simon Wren-Lewis offers the opinion that acknowledging uncertainty about size of the output gap actually argues in favor of being "less cautious" about taking an aggressive policy course. The basic idea is familiar. It is a simple matter to raise rates should the Fed overestimate the magnitude of the output gap. But with the short-term policy rates already at zero, it is not so easy to go in the opposite direction should we underestimate the gap.
No argument there. As I pointed out in a May 3 macroblog item, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has said the same thing. But, as I argued in that post, this point of view is only half the story. Though I agree that the costs are asymmetric to the downside with respect to the FOMC's employment and growth mandate, they look to me to be asymmetric to the upside with respect to the price stability mandate. And I view with some suspicion the claim that we know how to easily manage policy that turns out to be too aggressive after the fact.
My issues are not merely academic. In an important paper published a decade ago, Anasthsios Orphanides made this assertion:
"Despite the best of intentions, the activist management of the economy during the 1960s and 1970s did not deliver the desired macroeconomic outcomes. Following a brief period of success in achieving reasonable price stability with full employment, starting with the end of 1965 and continuing through the 1970s, the small upward drift in prices that so concerned Burns several years earlier gave way to the Great Inflation. Amazingly, during much of this period, specifically from February 1970 to January 1977, Arthur Burns, who so opposed policies fostering inflation, served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. How then is this macroeconomic policy failure to be explained? And how can such failures be avoided in the future?...
"The likely policy lapse leading to the Great Inflation …can be simply identified. It was due to the overconfidence with which policymakers believed they could ascertain in real-time the current state of the economy relative to its potential. The willingness to recognize the limitations of our knowledge and lower our stabilization objectives accordingly would be essential if we are to avert such policy disasters in the future."
With this historical observation in hand, it seems a short leap to turn Wren-Lewis's thought experiment on its head. Arguably, the last several years have demonstrated that nonconventional policy actions have been quite successful at short-circuiting the disinflationary spirals that pose the central downside risk when interest rates are near zero. (If you can tolerate a little math, a good exposition of both theory and evidence is provided by Roger Farmer.)
On the opposite side of the ledger, we know little about the conditions that would cause the Fed to lose credibility with respect to its commitment to its inflation goals, and very little about the triggers that would cause inflation expectations to become unanchored. Thus, I think it not difficult to construct a plausible argument about the risks of being wrong about the output gap that is exact opposite of the Wren-Lewis conclusion.
I end up about where I did in my previous post. Flexible inflation targeting, implemented in such a way that the 2 percent long-run inflation target rate exerts an observable gravitational pull over the medium term, feels about right to me. Despite what Frankel seems to believe, I think that idea is far from dead.
By Dave Altig, executive vice president and research director at the Atlanta Fed
May 17, 2012 in Deflation, Economic Growth and Development, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, Inflation, Monetary Policy | Permalink
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"The obituary is somewhat ironic in that at least some of us believe that the U.S. central bank has recently taken a big step in the direction of institutionalizing flexible inflation targeting."
Well, sort of. First of all, the Fed's forecasts certainly look like 2% PCE is an upper limit not an average, most commentators rightly called foul after the last quarterly set of forecasts. There is no de-facto difference right now between strict inflation targeting with a 2% ceiling and what the fed is doing. ther is no "flexible" in the target, and the range of full employment forecasts is 5-7%, we are still well above that yet there is no tolerance for higher inflation. So no I would not say "we took a big step forward."
In fact, nominal expectations have collapsed (see beckworth and the Evans new paper) so i would say the Fed has zero credibility on the unemployment side of the mandate. unsurprisingly, confidence and planned expenditures have collapsed. Its not a structural thing.
TIPS markets are screaming: epic fail.
Second, the fed cannot promise to control import prices (and indeed, tightening in response to a supply shock is textbook bad macro). The Fed should only focus on the price of domestically produced goods (gdp deflator). The Fed should have payed more attention to the gdp deflator and less to the PCE during the 2003-2008 period. Cheap imports depressed the PCE early, then expensive oil pushed it up in 2008. Policy would have been tighter, earlier.
At Sept 16th 2008 meeting, despite declining employment, tight credit, high mortgage delinquencies, housing market is recession since 2006, and declining GDP deflator, the Fed was concerned about inflation - not the clearly weakening economy (because oil and commodities prices were high). 3 days later Lehman collapsed and 3 weeks later they eased.
If you think the Fed follows a "balanced Taylor Rule" using output and inflation (use the GDP deflator as i said above) thats just ngdp targeting, except that the Fed promises to correct its own errors over a 5 year period so that the average works out.
Also, another aspect of ngdp targeting is that it prevents a debt-deflation spiral that happened in 2008 (and i think this is what prevented the 1990 real estate bubble from becoming worse in 1990s).
So, yes, IT is dead. RIP and good riddance.
Posted by:
dwb |
May 17, 2012 at 11:34 PM
thanks for reading comments, this is an interesting debate. Just a couple points as I forced myself to go back and reread Orphanides paper.
1) He used the GDP deflator. I view the conclusions as applied to the Fed framework with suspicion there since the Fed targets PCE and we know they sent very different signals during 2008;
2)The Taylor rule performs worse under imperfect information about the output gap (see figure 9); in fact ngdp targeting still is better under perfect information than strict inflation targeting. This is consistent with McCallum's 1998 results as well as i recall.
3)His ngdp rule is a *growth rule* not a path rule; Sumner and Beckworth propose a path rule (i.e. the Fed promises to correct errors so that the 5 year average (say) is on a target path. Important difference.
4)The chief criticism is that we do not know what potential output is, therefore do not know what to set the path to. But we can observe the trend GDP deflator and adjust the path as needed to be consistent.
I think that if you were to compare Sumner/Beckworth ngdp path level targeting to gdp deflator path level targeting, or inflation targeting using the GDP deflator, then there would only be a very mild difference.
The crucial differences are: the response to supply shocks (the Fed can only control domestic goods prices); and all the theory and evidence that ngdp targeting avoids debt-deflationary spirals like we saw in 2008. Again, compare the response to the housing real estate in the early 90s (yes, we had a housing crisis then too!).
Posted by:
dwb |
May 19, 2012 at 02:31 PM
Another reason NGDP level targeting trumps inflation targeting: it would not allow expectations of nominal income growth to collapse.
Posted by:
Anon1 |
May 19, 2012 at 10:00 PM
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text:
|MARMON UTILITY, LCC Patent applications
|Patent application number
|Roll-By Spacer and Trolley System for Use with a Wire and Methods Thereof - A roll-by spacer and trolley system for use with a wire and method thereof is provided. The system includes a trolley having at least one rotatable wheel. The rotatable wheel has a first wire contact surface positioned to contact and roll along the wire. A spacer is suspended from the trolley with a connecting element between the trolley and the spacer. The connecting element has a first position wherein the trolley and spacer are connected and a second position wherein the trolley and spacer are disconnected. A wire engagement structure is connected to the spacer. The wire engagement structure has a second wire contact surface that contacts the wire when the connecting element is in the second position. The second wire contact surface is positioned above first wire contact surface when the connecting element is in the first position.
|Wire Stringing Angle Clamp - A stringing angle clamp device and methods associated therewith are provided. The stringing angle clamp device has a pulley wheel rotatable about an axle. A connecting structure has at least a first end and a second end, wherein the first end rotatably is affixed to the axle and the second end is sized to connect to a utility pole. A first guide arm and a second guide arm are each rotatably affixed to the axle. A first wire clamping structure is affixed to the first guide arm and a second wire clamping structure is affixed to the second guide arm.
|Angle Block Apparatus and Methods of Using Thereof - An angle block apparatus and method of stringing cable is provided. The apparatus includes an angle block frame having an enclosed frame perimeter structure. A rotatable roller wheel is connected to the angle block frame and positioned interior of the enclosed frame perimeter structure. A connector is affixed to the angle block frame and sized to retain the angle block frame in a substantially stationary position. The method of stringing cable includes, in part, disconnecting a sled carrying the cable from a messenger wire trolley. The sled and cable attached thereto is then moved through the angle block frame from a first side to a second side of the angle block frame. The trolley is moved from the first side to the second side of the angle block frame without going through the angle block frame. The sled is then reattached to the messenger wire trolley on the second side.
|Stringing Messenger Clamp and Methods of Using the Same - A stringing messenger clamp for use in overhead transmission and distribution systems and method of installing a messenger cable is provided. The stringing messenger clamp includes a bracket and an assembly body supported by the bracket, wherein the assembly body has a cable channel sized to receive a portion of a messenger cable. An assembly clamp is movable with respect to the assembly body and closable upon the cable channel. When the assembly clamp is in a closed position, it retains in place the portion of the messenger cable within the cable channel.

subset: commoncrawl


text:
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text:
The Daily Five: Characters We'd Grab a Beer With
Every Presidential election always comes with a poll asking the American people which candidate they're likely willing to grab a beer with. While this is an utterly stupid poll to even conduct, it's light hearted and makes us wonder who are the five game characters we'd likely grab a beer with ourselves. It's not surprising that some of these guys just don't have the time to relax and crack open a cold one every once in awhile, but damnit, they should!
To take this one step further, we're even going to go out on a limb and predict which type of beer these five would order.
So, grab a beach chair, a towel, or whatever and relax. We got this.
Mario & Luigi
It seems like these two guys rarely get a break whether it's in video games or their super cool TV show and that's just not cool. They work hard, they never take jobs within their expected profession, and they're always out trying to save other people. It's tough out there for a plumber and a cold one is exactly what these two brothers need. After all, with all the nagging they get from Princess Peach a trip to the bar isn't such a bad idea.
Likely beer choice? We think Luigi would definitely order a Blue Moon while Mario is going to go with something local to Texas, a Buttface Amber Ale.
Nathan Drake
Honestly, Drake goes on some pretty crazy ass adventures and having a drink with the guy would probably result in a Hangover-like experience at some point in time. While we may not have the opportunity to get punched in the face by Mike Tyson or steal a tiger, the potential to face off against zombies and search for useless treasure is definitely high on the probability list. Someone has to do it, right?
Likely beer choice? Drake is worldly and has seen a lot of place. We're going to go with something imported like a Hop-Ruiter from Belgium. We understand Drake seems like a good ol' American boy who would go domestic, but c'mon now.
Young Lara Croft
Admittedly, Lara Croft is probably crazy busy after her inaugural ass-kicking adventure in the latest Tomb Raider and she'd probably prefer a glass of wine than a beer, but we'd like to think that due to her badassery, she'd grab a beer with us as well. Unfortunately, since we've chosen the younger Croft, she's not going to has as many great stories to tell, but we'd still want to hear anything she'd have to say in regards to treasure hunting or what her next big adventure may be.
Likely beer choice? Lara isn't going to want to drink any of the big name, watered down American lagers, so we're expecting something European. We're going to go with a Guinness
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Yeah not too far. What town is it near?
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Yeah not too far. What town is it near?
OH geez, yes! 'Skip is so right. It's going to be meltingly hot. Unless you've been in a heavily humid climate before, you are going to be seriously uncomfortable if you don't dress for the heat and humidity (light colored, natural fiber, loose fitting clothes) and have at least a light hat, sunglasses and tons of sunscreen. You will want something for the mosquitos too, because they are out in force in the summer.
If you wear extremely comfortable shoes, and follow the above, you will be pretty good. You'll need to drink, drink, drink, and the water at WDW and in Florida in general tastes pretty bad. You may want to bring little packets of drink powder to add to the water to make it taste better. There is bottled water to purchase, but you can run through some serious money doing that. You may want to purchase a case of it in Publix and carry it in with you. If you freeze them first, that will help keep them cool longer. You'll want rainwear too, ponchos are for sale in the parks. They do a pretty good job of it, but you may want to bring your own gear. Umbrellas are kind of useless because the wind will whip them inside out pretty quickly. On the other hand, I wear glasses so I will struggle with an umbrella because I can't stand rainy glasses. :D
Take many, many breaks. Expect to not have your usual appetite as the heat and humidity will interfere with your wanting to eat.
You are staying offsite, so if you have your own transport, you will have good opportunities to purchase things off property. They will be MUCH less expensive that way, for them most part. (Beer, :D soda, water, personal supplies, ponchos, all that kind of stuff). For the best prices, stay off of I-Drive stores, and those shops immediately around WDW. Just a little way from either location will allow you to purchase the same items for considerably less.
It's so exciting to be going to WDW for the first time!
West ChesterQuote:
Originally Posted by Watchinherskip, post: 328856, member: 301
Thanks Tink. Some really good suggestions.
We haven't decided on a car or not yet as our hotel does free transfers to WDW. I think we will probably opt for one just to give is that little bit more freedom on when to come and go.
We were at WDW on July 4th one year and we made an ADR for dinner at an Epcot rectaurant [in "France" if I recall] and timed it so that we could see Illuminations after dinner.
The fireworks were particularly spectacular that night and it was a great atmosphere just being there at that time.
Oh cool, West Chester is a neat little town. I got to do a seminar at the planetarium at West Chester University a few summers ago. Nice campus. West Chester University was always our main competition for my undergrad school East Stroudsburg. Stinkin' Golden Rams!!!
I have been at WDW on July 4th several times (birthday july 6 so where could there be a better place to celebrate) and loved it. the fireworks are amazing ...extra fireworks for the holiday...and big crowds lots of groups... but the plus side is the park is open late so there is lots of extra time to hang out...
Hi Susan, great to see you around! How are things in NEPA? I got a chance to visit Scranton over the holidays. Always nice to get home. Never went during the summer. Thanksgiving is our most popular time to go although we went a few times on DD's January birthday and once over Easter break. Now that was a crowded time.Quote:
Originally Posted by susanm, post: 328952, member: 4471


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Balti Chicken Pasanda Recipe
Balti Chicken Pasanda represents a wonderful cooking style very popular in the UK. Balti cuisine is name after the cooking vessel (or "balti") - a rounded cast iron wok or kadai. Balti dishes are well known for their quick cooking techniques that produce highly flavorful results.
Balti Fish Curry Recipe
Balti Cuisine is a style of Indian food that can actually trace its roots back to England. My delicious Balti Fish Curry is a real family favorite & always a big hit with the kids. Tender pieces of lovely fish gently poached in a delicately spiced tomato based broth simply heavenly!
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Balti cooking in general, represents a wonderful cooking style and dish that is very popular in the UK. My tasty and versatile Balti Vegetables recipe is always a crowd pleaser. Feel free to change up the vegetables to make it your own :-)
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Green bamboo rice gets its lovely green color from bamboo juice, which is added during the milling process. This short grain rice has a wonderful & unique taste that should not be missed! So do try my healthy & delicious recipe soon & let me know what you think :-)
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Bamboo shoots arent just for pandas! In fact, in India -- fresh bamboo shoots are considered quite the delicacy! Bamboo shoots are healthy, nutritious & delicious. If you've never had them before - you don't know what you're missing. This dish was always a huge favorite in my family.
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My Banana Cardamom Pudding is a lovely & delicious way to end any meal. Best of all, this pudding contains absolutely no gelatin. It is simple to prepare & can easily be made right on your stovetop. The combination of tastes, flavors & textures makes this dessert an all around winner!
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Your family will really "go bananas" for my super-moist & heavenly Banana Walnut Spice Cake. What a delicious & yummy way to use overripe bananas! It's also a great way get your kids into the kitchen to help make this simple cake too, that way they can enjoy the results as soon as it's ready :-)
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Bengali Red Lentils Recipe
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Now that the busyness of Christmas has passed and the final performance in the 2nd Annual #MormonPoetrySlam has posted (see the event archive here), it's time to determine the winner of the Audience Choice Award. For your consideration and reviewing pleasure, here are the eighteen entries, listed in order of appearance (you may need to hit "Read next page" at the bottom of the Storify to review all of eighteen).
Tag Archives: Nephi Anderson
Sunday Lit Crit Sermon: Nephi Anderson on the immoral in drama8.4.13 | Kent Larsen | one comment
When we hear principles taught from the pulpit, they sometimes seem remote, disconnected from reality. So speakers often add stories, sometimes fictional, to their sermons, so that we can put the principle in context. The stories produced during the Home Literature movement are often in that vein, what are sometimes called "didactic" stories, with a clear moral teaching the principle that the author wants to communicate.
In this series I've presented excerpts from many sermons and essays that demonstrate what Mormons have thought and discussed about literature. Today's text is a little different, because it is an excerpt from a short story. But, it still fits, because in this story Nephi Anderson, dean of the Home Literature movement, preaches about literature—specifically what kinds of drama should be presented.
Report on the Nephi Anderson 2013 SASS Panel5.8.13 | Scott Hales | 19 comments
In July 1915—nearly one hundred years ago—Nephi Anderson traveled to San Francisco to attend meetings at the International Congress of Genealogy held in connection with the Pan-American and Pacific International Exposition. While there, he also attended the exposition's Utah Day celebration and spent three days seeing the sights.  Overall, he writes in his journal, he "had a splendid time.â€
He was back in San Francisco five years later, vacationing and conducting some Church business. He stayed at mission headquarters on Hayes Street, where he had Thanksgiving dinner, and attended meetings in Berkeley and Oakland.
The house where Anderson stayed during this second visit (1649 Hayes Street) still stands, although it is now the Emmanuel Church of God in Christ rather than an LDS mission headquarters. I had the opportunity to drive past it last weekend when I was in San Francisco to talk about Anderson at the annual meeting for the Society for the Advancement of Scandinavian Studies. It's in a busy neighborhood just north of Golden Gate Park, so I couldn't find a place to park nearby. I was able to snap two pictures of it, though, before San Francisco's traffic nudged me along.
In many ways, Anderson's history with San Francisco is unremarkable. He was never more than a temporary resident of the city—a vacationer, a passer-through—and what he saw and thought of the city is mostly a matter of conjecture. (As a journal and letter writer, Anderson was an ardent minimalist!) Still, when Sarah Reed, Eric Jepson, and I met last Saturday at the SASS meeting to present papers on his life and work, the fact that he had been to the city and left a brief record of his visit seemed to add to the occasion. As Theric pointed out in his presentation, Anderson's visits to the city remind us that he was not a provincial writer, holed up behind the mountains of Utah and indifferent to the world beyond Mormonism, but a man who traveled throughout the United States and Europe and became well-acquainted with the important issues and ideas of his day. In fact, it was from this perspective—Anderson as a man of his times—that each of us seemed to approach his work.
Dorian, Sectarians, and Nephi Anderson's Careful Critique2.19.13 | Scott Hales | 3 comments
There's much to admire about Nephi Anderson and his work, but I have always been troubled by his (mis)treatment of other religious faiths—"sectarians†as he called them—in his novels. On the one hand, I understand that his unflattering representations of Protestants and Catholics in Marcus King, Mormon (1900), The Story of Chester Lawrence (1913), and The Romance of a Missionary (1919) were responses not only to the opposition he encountered during his three missions for the Church, but also to the anti-Mormonism that was rampant in the presses of his day. On the other hand, though, I find myself wishing that he extended more charity to those who disagreed with him theologically. So much of his work, after all, seeks to redeem and ennoble characters who have been either marginalized by cultural maladies—sexism, poverty, class prejudice—or oppressed by sin and guilt. Why couldn't he do the same for the "sectarians�
19th Century Mormon Utopian Literature11.7.12 | Scott Hales | 4 comments
Since reading Added Upon and writing about it in my dissertation, I've wanted to compile a list of works of nineteenth-century Mormon utopian literature, or works that describe or yearn for an ideal society or which advocate for action that would lead to such. I realize, though, that compiling such a list is almost a fool's errand since so much of early Mormon literature—and I consider hymns literature—has to do with building Zion and the Millennium, the ultimate utopian dreams.
Even so, a few months ago, I spent an afternoon and came up with this list. It is incomplete, of course, and will likely remain so until I get serious about it. What I'd like to do in the meantime, though, is open it up to you who know nineteenth-century Mormon literature better than I do (my interest in it is about two years old) and ask if I'm missing anything crucial. Specifically, I'm looking for works of fiction or "proto-fiction†(allegories, fables, parables, etc.) that could be reasonably labeled "utopian†or even "millennialist.†I'm interested in poetry too if its utopian expression is out of the ordinary.
My thought, however, is that what I have below is fairly representative of what's out there. Am I right?
Nephi Anderson, WWI, and the Curse of Sexual Sin10.31.12 | Scott Hales | 10 comments
If you read Nephi Anderson's fiction for its aesthetic value, as the Mormon critics of the 1960s and 70s did, you'll likely be disappointed—unless your aesthetic standards allow for "preachiness,†that catch-all term commonly used when describing Mormon fiction's apparent tendency to use art as a vehicle for gospel teaching.
If you read his fiction as products of turn-of-the-century Mormon and American culture, however, you'll likely have a more satisfying experience. Anderson, after all, was very much a man of his day—and keenly aware of the world around him. Rather than being an aesthetic failure, his work is a rich repository of responses to the cultural changes happening in Utah and the rest of the nation.
In fact, looking at Anderson's work from this perspective helps us better understand some of his more problematic works, like his 1918 short story "Forfeits,†a second place winner in one of the monthly fiction contests the Improvement Era sponsored for a time. (If you're unfamiliar with the story, you can check it out here.)
In the story, a young man, Gale Thompson, returns to his Utah hometown nearly five years after "seek[ing] adventure and perchance fortune in the world†(519). By chance, Gale meets up with Dick Stevens, a friend who once accompanied him in his wanderings, who has since returned home and married Gale's sister, Laura. During this reunion, it comes out that Dick and Laura's child—an ambiguously sexed child that both men refer to only as "itâ€â€"was born blind because of a sexually transmitted disease Dick had contracted while he and Gale lived in Chicago and "dabble[d] in forbidden things†(521). The news sobers Gale, who fears that he may still carry the disease—even though a quack city doctor once pronounced him cured. His joyful return is over in an instant:
Is Nephi Anderson "Scriptus�10.11.12 | William Morris | 25 comments
Wm writes: Scott Hales — who most AMV readers will know from The Low-Tech World and Modern Mormon Men — spent some time earlier this year doing archival research on Mormon literature. Here's a guest post by Scott that comes out of some of that research.
Is Nephi Anderson "Scriptus�
by Scott Hales
In the Nephi Anderson Collection of the Church History Library is a folder that contains newspaper clippings that Nephi Anderson collected throughout his life. Most of these are of articles, letters to the editor, or poems he published in newspapers in Utah, a few eastern cities, and England. Many of them, like clippings about missionary work or anti-Mormon activity in England, are unremarkable because they represent the kind of thing you would expect Anderson to save. Others, like a few describing violent crimes ("Child Murder Near Southend—Head Broken with a Slater's Hammer,†"Ex-Convict Found Drownedâ€), raise fascinating questions about why an author known for his sentimentality, "lovely spirit,†and the "gentleness and kindness in his being†would be drawn to such grisly stories. (I have my own theories about the dark imagination of Nephi Anderson, but I'll save them for a later post.)


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Russell Westbrook gets an 'A' for assists in Thunder win
Kevin Durant said he knew this summer that Thunder teammate Russell Westbrook was primed for a special season. "At those USA trials (for young rising players), that's when he showed he could really play point guard," Durant said. "I knew back then in (Las) Vegas it was going to be a good year for him." After playing well in preseason, Westbrook dished out a career-high 13 assists in the Thunder's season opening 102-89 win over Sacramento in the Ford Center. "His performance was unbelievable, probably the best game I've ever seen him play," Durant said. "He handled the team so well. Even though he didn't take as many shots as he normally does, he got some open shots because he got us the ball in good position." Almost as impressive as Westbrook's 13 assists were his turnovers. He only had two. "He has the ability to take the ball and score and get his own shot, but I've been impressed. He's trying to do the right thing," said teammate Nick Collison. "He's doing really well. Tonight, he looked great. There were even some small plays he might not get an assist but made the pass at the right time." Westbrook, a first-team All-Rookie selection last season, said he's always trying to get teammates open looks, even if it means sacrificing a few shots. "I don't mind that," Westbrook said. "I'd rather my teammates get involved before I get myself going. It was a learning process, me learning how to finding my teammates shots." Coach Scott Brooks said he doesn't want Westbrook to think it's an either/or proposition. "He's a scorer also," Brooks said. "We don't want to take that away from him. He did a great job mixing both in tonight. There's a fine line between attacking for yourself and your teammates."


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Connecticut has a very effective law that physically prevents convicted drunken drivers from starting their car engines if the alcohol in their blood is above a level that would indicate their intention to drive drunk once again. The law requires convicted DUI offenders to install ignition interlock devices in the cars they own or use. The device includes a tube that the driver must blow into in order to measure his or her alcohol level. If the level is too high, the car won't start.
But the law also has a very big loophole in that it requires only those convicted of drunken driving two or more times to use the devices in their cars. Mothers Against Drunk Driving, which proposed the legislation nationwide, wants the Connecticut law fixed and expanded to require its mandatory use after the driver's first arrest.
There's a very good reason for this. Connecticut takes an extremely forgiving stance on first time drunken drivers, possibly in deference to young offenders and their families. It allows first offenders to enter into an alcohol education program that, if successfully completed, results in their record being expunged - unless or until, of course, they drive drunk again.
As the law is now written, first-time offenders don't have to use the ignition interlocks.
MADD would like to see the installation and use of the ignition interlock device to become part of that mandatory alcohol education program for these first-time offenders. This makes sense. The state is cutting these drunk drivers a break by a providing a second sense. It is reasonable to require them to use the interlock devices as an added tool encouraging sober driving.
The devices cost about $75 to install and require the user to pay a monitoring fee of $50 to $75 a month. Once the course is completed and their record is expunged, the devices would be removed.
Thanks to MADD, which, as its name indicates, was founded by parents who lost children in accidents caused by drunken driving, laws requiring the use of ignition interlock devices have been passed in all 50 states and 18 of them, but not Connecticut, have provisions for their use by all drunken drivers.
So why not close the loophole? First, there's a technical problem. This year's General Assembly short session is, in theory, at least, devoted only to budgetary matters, but exceptions have always been the rule for this rule. And we know how efficiently the legislature can move, even in its final hours of existence, to pass all kinds of laws, whether in regular or shortened sessions.
Michael Lawlor, the former legislative leader who is now the governor's undersecretary for criminal justice policy and planning, has doubts MADD will be able to change the law this session but he supports the idea. "The only issue is a practical one, whether the state agencies charged with enforcing it have the resources they need to do it properly," Mr. Lawlor told The New Haven Register.
DMV Commissioner Melodie Currey has testified that expanding the use of the interlock would require significant increases in financial and staffing resources but hasn't taken a position on the merits.
Bernard McLoughlin, MADD's state chairman, said he appreciates the cost considerations but suggests, rather sensibly, it appears to us, that the cost should be structured so that the financial burden is placed on the violators, rather than the taxpayers.
"What we're talking about here is saving lives versus saving dollars," said Mr. McLoughlin.
While true enough, such a change may also save dollars if it results in fewer emergency service calls for drunk-driving accidents and lower judicial costs. It makes sense to amend the law, if not in this session, then soon.
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DOT Commissioner: I-95 widening, improvements should be on 'front burner'


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Just some thoughts about what I have seen taking place over the months here at FOO. I am not a Doctor but I stayed at a Best Western last night. If you have some odd malady or are wondering if you should have that spurting cut treated here is my advice. Go see a doctor.
This is not addressed to anyone in particular it is just an observation. If you are worried about your health why would you solicit answers in the lounge area of a bicycle board?
Truly, I am very curious as to why one might do this!


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Suns make future play with Syracuse point guard Ennis
The Suns didn't add Tyler Ennis to replace Goran Dragic or Eric Bledsoe but to increase their depth at point guard.
PHOENIX -- The Suns already had three point guards on their roster so it came as a bit of a surprise when they used the 18th overall pick in Thursday's NBA Draft on Syracuse's Tyler Ennis.
The pick immediately created buzz about the Suns' point guard situation, which entering draft night included Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Ish Smith. Could Ennis be an insurance policy if the Suns lose Bledsoe in free agency? Or perhaps a piece if Dragic departs after the upcoming season?
According to the Suns brass, neither is the case.
The Suns see Ennis, 19, as a future piece that should see minutes next season. But his selection doesn't change their immediately plans at point guard, rather adds to the existing wealth.
"We start two guys who would primarily be defined as point guards," Suns General Manager Ryan McDonough said of Dragic and Bledsoe. "We really value having multiple ball handlers on the floor. We think our ability to run pick and rolls on either side of the floor and also to push the ball in transition either via the pass or the dribble, we feel like that's a strength for us.
"We wanted to keep adding to it."
Dragic, the NBA's Most Improved Player last season, has a year remaining on his contract before facing an early-termination option. Assuming he continues to play at least at the same level, he'll likely opt out them but seems interested in staying in Phoenix long term.
Bledsoe is a restricted free agent this summer and will test the market. The Suns have made it clear they intend to match any offer he receives. That likely means a maximum contract, so the Suns would be committing to Bledsoe long term, perhaps a risky move considering Bledsoe's injury history.
That presumably makes Ennis, a Freshman All-American last season, the Suns' third point guard when Bledsoe and Dragic come off the floor. That could mean the end of Ish Smith in Phoenix, though McDonough said the Suns hope to bring him back on his team option, and the Suns routinely emphasize a 'position-less' philosophy.
Ennis, 6-foot-2 and 180 pounds, gives the Suns another game manager that can run the second unit. In particular, the Suns like the mature, collected style Ennis showed playing as a freshman in a big-time college basketball conference.
"His composure at his age stands out," McDonough said. "If you look at his numbers in close and late games they were terrific, like unbelivably good."
Ennis, who averaged 12.9 points and 5.5 assists per game for the Orange last season, said via conference call Thursday he wasn't surprised to be picked by the Suns despite their existing stock of point guards.
The Suns say Ennis and fellow first-round pick T.J. Warren, taken No. 14, could play sooner rather than later, and Ennis is eager to earn a place in the rotation while learning from two of the NBA's top young point guards.
"You're going to have to earn your minutes regardless," Ennis said. "So for me to come in as a rookie and be able to learn from guys like Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic and all the other veterans is going to be good for me."
While Ennis certainly has some developing left to do, it seems a safe bet he'll see time on the floor next season. Otherwise, the Suns mioght have just traded the pick. In fact, the Suns didn't expect Ennis to be available when the 18th pick rolled around, so it stands to reason they have immediate plans for him.
Of course, the Suns' present point guard situation could change. Something could make them decide not to match a contract offer to Bledsoe, or they could decide after next season they can't invest so much money in two point guards even with Dragic and Bledsoe playing so well together.
If the situation does change, then Ennis could become a more primary piece. But that's not the plan. Ennis is as much a part of the future as Dragic and Bledsoe, positioning the Suns as a potential league leader in premiere point guards.
"Especially given the fact that we play two, obvisouly not all the time but a lot of the time, we wanted to make sure that was a position of strength for us," McDonough said. "We were very happy to get him."
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Environment and health
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A clean environment is essential for human health and well-being. However, the interactions between the environment and human health are highly complex and difficult to assess. This makes the use of the precautionary principle particularly useful. The best-known health impacts are related to ambient air pollution, poor water quality and insufficient sanitation. More
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- Emissions of NOX, SOX, NH3 and NMVOC have decreased significantly in most countries between 1990 and 2012. However, air pollution still causes significant harm to health and the environment in Europe. more
- Europe has achieved major improvements in public health. However, an ageing population and the impacts of climate change, including new vector-borne diseases, may necessitate additional public health interventions and adjusted environmental policies. more
- The quality of Europe's drinking and bathing water have improved but air and noise pollution continue to cause serious health impacts. About 460 000 premature deaths were attributed to fine particulate matter in 2011. Further reductions in pressures... more
- The global burden from non-communicable disease now outweighs that from communicable disease. However, the threat of global pandemics continues, partly driven by increasing mobility. Around 25 % of the burden of disease and deaths is attributable... more
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Latest posts by Nereyda (see all)
- Audiobook Reviews: Assassin's Heart/The Glittering Court - May 24, 2016
- Book Themes I Stay Away From - May 19, 2016
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I had one on by blog. I Googled it and found it was part of another bloggers review posted to various sites. I deleted it. Some strange things going on in the blogisphere lately.
I wish I could credit where I saw this, but on a few blogs, I saw one of those linky/badge type things to this website: http://www.myfreecopyright.com/
I signed up about when I started blogging a few weeks ago. Not only do they provide "proof" via email of what and when you post, they also run checks to see if other people are using your content. Not sure how well the second part works- I wouldn't know unless someone took content, used it, and myfreecopyright didn't catch it. But, it's free, so why not?
You could always make it so that you moderate all comments? Might be a bit frustrating though.
Yeah, I've gotten a few of those a few months ago, I just marked them as spam and haven't gotten one since then, although that might be a coincidence, but I didn't realize they might be plagiarized, and the commenter's names were always countries from Europe.
I had this happen to me recently as well. Another strange thing that happened with mine was that they did a mini-review on another book in the series, not the one I reviewed. Like you suggested, I Googled the comment and found that it had been taken from another blogger. I will be contacting this blogger and then reporting them as spam. Like Aleksandra mentioned, the commenter's name was France, but I couldn't get anymore information about it. Weird!
I contacted the blogger who was plagiarized and then I contacted WordPress via this address: http://automattic.com/dmca/ about the bad bloggers. Waiting on a response. To plagiarize for anything is just stupid and for a comment is just idiocy.


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Hi.. I had finished the design,i want to took plot the .brd file for the manual checking of it. For the File----> Plot----> specified the scale factor too. Then In case i want to shift the X& Y positions with certain distance of X: 30 & Y:-30 means, How can i shift the plotting file. Any possible solutions for this problem? Me was trying to find the solution for this problem., No solutions was finded.Thanks & Regards Dhamodharan
Engineer PCB Design.


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SHINTON, Bobby
We are keen to include as many ex-footballers as possible. If you know what has happened to any former players not listed on the site, please do get in touch - thanks.
Bobby SHINTON
Clubs played for: Walsall, Cambridge United, Wrexham, Manchester City, Millwall, Newcastle United, Millwall. (1971-1982)
Biography: Is now running his own double glazing business in Worcester after moving from Cambridgeshire.
SHINTON, Bobby Best player I saw in a Wrexham shirt! Magnificent in the 1977/78 promotion year. I remember his debut the previous season home to Portsmouth 21st August 1976 - scored two magnificent goals - the season Wrexham narrowly missed promotion. A candidate for my World XI team!!!
Do you have any interesting, happy,or humorous memories of this player?
If so, we would be happy to share them with the world! If you have a website, we will be happy to give you a 'dofollow' link as a thank you. Although we do need your e-mail address, we promise that it will not appear on the site or be used to bombard you with spam!


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Bean North celebrates spring! Enjoy a cup of Spring Ahead to start the season's sunny, longer days. A blend of organic Fair Trade coffees from Uganda, Peru, Ethiopia and Honduras, this rich and full coffee has hints of spice, nuts and cocoa. It'll put a smile on your face!
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New Sportsbook.ag customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.Join Now
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SOUTH BOSTON, Va. (AP) - Matt Bowling won the Denny Hamlin Short Track Showdown on Thursday night at South Boston Speedway, fighting off Matt Waltz in the seventh edition of the charity race.
Nick Smith finished third. Hamlin was eighth, while defending Showdown champion Kyle Busch ended the night in fourth.
Matt Kenseth was fifth, and David Ragan 20th.
Truck Series driver Timothy Peters finished 27th after his night was cut short following a tangle with Jeb Burton, who finished 25th after getting into a scuffle with Blake Stallings.
Copyright 2016The Associated PressAll Rights Reserved


text: Hi! First off I would love to state that mango has been best operating system so far, but I have observe that when I attempt to obtain instructions on bing maps now it does not work nearly all of the instance. It pops up with a note that state "No Location Information. Bing Maps can't discover your position right now. I would Attempt once more time or later." I have a Samsung f with at&t and a registered developer account. It never once did this previous to the Mango update. As well, if I attempt to do it an only some times, occasionally it will obtain me the instructions, but when I tap on display for voice instructions, it at all times says "Can't join to satellite." All of my site options are enabled, so there is no cause for this, and it never happened earlier than mango. If there is a method to repair this, I would be glad to attempt it!