text:
Things to see and do - Cairo
Leaving for Egypt
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1 Egyptian Museum, Cairo
Museums and art
Place Al-Tahrir ET - Al-Qahirah
Some 120 000 pieces recall the history of 5 000 years of successive dynasties in Egypt. Sculptures and funerary furniture are presented in more than 50 rooms: statues of kings and queens (Hatshepsut, Amenophis IV), and divinities (Tueris); sarcophagu..
2 Tutankhamun's Treasure
Archaeological and historical sites
Place Al-Tahrir ET - Al-Qahirah
The sumptuous treasure is made up of more than 2 000 pieces, including the throne, the famous gold mask and the beetle pectoral. Tutankhamun's treasure has been the talk of the town since it was discovered by Howard Carter in 1972, especially as the ..
3 Khan al-Khalili
Architecture, castles and historic districts
Rue Muizz li-Din Allah ET - Al-Qahirah
Take the time to stroll about Egypt's biggest souk, which spreads out at the heart of Islamic Cairo, between Muizz li-Din Allah Street and Sayyidna al-Hussein Mosque. Although some traditionally crafted objects (brass and leather) are on sale, produc..
4 Cairo Museum of Islamic Art
Museums and art
Place Bab al-Khalq ET - Al-Qahirah
Inaugurated in 1903, this museum houses one of the world's most exceptional collections of Islamic art. All the wealth and diversity of the artistic output of Arab dynasties dating back to the 7C are shown through over 20 themes. Admire the exception..
5 Sultan Hassan Mosque-Madrasa
Religious buildings
Midan Salah al-Din ET - Al-Qahirah
Founded by Sultan Hassan in the 14C, this gigantic madrasa (almost 80 000m2) is a gem of Mamluk era architecture. Behind its long, tall façade, which lends it the look of a fortress, lies the central courtyard, bathed in light, and in the centre of w..
6 Ibn Touloun Mosque
Religious buildings
ET - Al-Qahirah
The oldest mosque in Cairo to have retained its original appearance (9C). Entirely in brick and surrounded by a parapet walk, the edifice has a huge, stunning square courtyard lined with a portico (note the intrados of the arches decorated with delic..
7 Al-Azhar Mosque
Religious buildings
ET - Al-Qahirah
The founding of this extremely ancient mosque (970) coincides with the birth of El-Qahira (Cairo), which the Fatimids made their capital. It became the official Friday prayer place, and in the 15C was given two additional minarets (it has five altoge..
8 Al-Qalaoun Mosque-Madrasa
Religious buildings
Rue Muizz li-Din Allah ET - Al-Qahirah
Following on from the Fatimids, the Mamluk sultans built numerous mosques in Cairo. This one, erected in 1279, is a masterclass in the Islamic art aesthetic, which places the onus on sumptous decors and noble materials: stucco, polychrome marbles, po..
9 Al-Suhaymy House
Architecture, castles and historic districts
Rue Darb a-Asfar ET - Al-Qahirah
Beit Al-Suhaymy was the home of the Sheikh of Al-Azhar. Built in 1648 and extended in the late 18C, it is a fine example of domestic architecture, and wonderfully decorated with marble, earthenware and wood. Daylight is filtered through an interior g..
10 Al-Mu'ayyad Mosque
Religious buildings
Haret ar-Rum ET - Al-Qahirah
Also known as the Red Mosque, this Mamluk building (1415) is the latest example of mosques with porticos. Embellished with stalactites and fitted with black and white marble, the entrance portal frames a splendid lime tree wood door bearing repoussé ..
11 Gate of Zuwayla
Architecture, castles and historic districts
ET - Al-Qahirah
Built in 1902 and a contemporary of the north gates, Bab Zuwayla has been superbly restored. It was the site of public executions, where the heads of 500 Mamluks killed by Mohammed Ali in 1811 were stuck onto their spears and exhibited. You can climb..
12 Cairo Citadel
Architecture, castles and historic districts
Sh. Salah Salem ET - Al-Qahirah
Perched up on a rocky spur, the Citadel (12C) dominates Cairo. From the Ayyubid Dynasty, founded by Saladin, to the Mamluk Dynasty, it was the residence of the governors of Egypt, who had increasingly grandiose palaces built. Its current incarnation ..
13 Mahmoud Khalil Museum
Museums and art
Sh. al-Giza ET - Al-Qahirah
It may be a surprise to find works by Rodin, Millet, Utrillo, Sisley, Lautrec, Degas, Moreau and Rubens on the banks of the Nile but this museum housed in the former residence of President Sadate boasts one of the richest collections of its kind in t..
14 Coptic Museum
Museums and art
ET - Al-Qahirah
At the inauguration of the museum in 2006, President Mubarak stressed the importance of Coptic artistic heritage for Egypt, an opinion borne out by the stunning collections here: icons, frescoes, jewellery, sculptures (in particular the capitals from..
15 Qaitbay Mosque
Religious buildings
ET - Al-Qahirah
If the mosque gives you a sense of déja vu, it is probably because it features on the Egyptian one pound note. Located in the northern sector of the City of the Dead, this harmonious edifice was built in the 15C by Sultan Qaitbay. Dominated by its fi..
16 Al-Azhar Park
Nature and gardens
Rue Salah Salem ET - Al-Qahirah
Opened in 2005, this 30ha park is in keeping with the city's tradition of parks and gardens, which occupied 20% of the territory when the city was originally founded. Between the City of the Dead and the Al-Azhar district, lined to the west by the re..
17 Beshtak Palace
Architecture, castles and historic districts
Rue Muizz li-Din Allah ET - Al-Qahirah
This palace built around 1334 boasts a handsome reception hall (qa'a), 25m high and divided into a central hall (durqa'a) and side chambers.
18 Al-Hakim Mosque
Religious buildings
Rue Darb al-Asfar ET - Al-Qahirah
This is one of the few Fatimid mosques still to have its original layout with a large courtyard surrounded by porticos and a prayer room with five naves. The monumental façade is composed of large walls crowned with merlons, and flanked by minarets w..
19 Al-Futuh Gate
Architecture, castles and historic districts
Rue Darb al-Asfar ET - Al-Qahirah
Bab Al-Futuh or the Gate of Conquests marks the northern end of the ramparts, which were built in the 11C by the Fatimids who used stones from ancient Memphis. Its imposing mass is flanked by two round towers. As you look at gate, remember that at th..
20 Beit Zeinab Khatun, Beit Abdul Rahman al-Harrawi and Beit Sitt Wasila
Architecture, castles and historic districts
ET - Al-Qahirah
In the heart of Fatimid Cairo, not far from Al-Azhar Mosque, don't miss this group of ancient houses, which are remarkable examples of Muslim architecture. Combining Mamluk and Ottoman styles, Beit Zeinab Khatun boasts an attractive wooden ceiling in..


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WASHINGTON (AP) - The National Building Museum in Washington is opening a new hands-on exhibit focused on building blocks and the history of architectural toys.
The new installation, "Play, Work, Build," opens Sunday at the museum as part of a collaboration with the design firm Rockwell Group.
The museum has pulled items from its collection of more than 2,300 sets of architectural and construction toys to explore the history of play with blocks. Some of the earliest American construction toys include alphabet blocks made in the 1870s and building blocks made in the 1860s.
Visitors then can test their building skills with foam blocks designed by the Rockwell Group in different shapes and sizes. The firm's "Imagination Playground" has been installed in 600 locations around the world.

subset: commoncrawl


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Hello Everybody,
I would like you to ask you to help me out with a following problem:
When I deploy a new Zimlet, there is one particular account where this zimlet does not get added. All other users can see it except of this one. This account can see and use zimlets whose have been installed before this account has been created.
Now, Can I somehow reatach zimlets to this account?
(This account has been manually created and afterwards all emails have been imported from a 6.x Zimbra version export. )
I am currently running on 7.1.3.
Thanks and regards,


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|FCCLA, FFA service sale is huge success
|Written by Holyoke Enterprise
HHS Family Career and Community Leaders of America and FFA held their annual service sale and Rocky Mountain oyster fry Monday, March 25.
A new format for the auction proved quite successful as total funds raised from the sale almost doubled last year's endeavor.
One FFA member and one FCCLA member were on the stage in the elementary school gym at the same time, sparring in fun as bidding proceeded. The winning bidder selected one of the two students on stage and the bidding began again for the one remaining.
It provided a fun atmosphere for both the audience and the participants.
Income from the sale came in at $10,420. FFA made $6,390 with an average of $223 per member.
FCCLA made $4,030 with an average of $190 per member.
In addition to individual FFA and FCCLA member sales, the advisers of both organizations, Karen Pieper and Guy Kuntz, were also sold.
Additionally, the full officer teams of both organizations were on the auction block for group sales.
FCCLA and FFA members expressed sincere appreciation for the support received. The money from the fundraiser allows students to attend leadership training conferences.
Holyoke Enterprise March 28, 2013


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text: We are currently using Zimbra Version 5.0.6_GA_2313 on our server, and we have a few users testing Zimbra Desktop Beta2 (build 1119) as a possible Outlook replacement. Does this configuration support GAL, and if so how is this enabled in Zimbra Desktop. I have a user on Ubuntu and Vista, and both cannot access the GAL contacts, or see GAL addresses when composing new mail using Zimbra Desktop. Works fine using the web interface.


text:
Valentine's Day Sale From Durango Silver Co.
Hello Readers,
Hope you have been enjoying your winter season. We have been having a wide variety of weather here in Durango, Colorado. It has been cold enough though to keep the outdoors a beautiful snowy white, which our Labradors Lander Blue and Daisy love.
We are fast aproaching February and of coarse Valentine's Day. It is a great time for those of us that are romantic at heart to start thinking about getting that someone special something really unique, inspiring and beautiful to show our love for them. This is why we would like to offer a VALENTINE'S DAY sale.
From Today until February 15th we will be offering 10% OFF on all merchandise in our online store www.durangosilver.com .


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About this letter: Francis H. Smith was the Superintendent of the Virginia Military Institute. Richardson was Adjutant General of Virginia.
The final section of the letter is partially illegible. Brackets are used to indicate uncertainty in transcription.
Head Quarters Virginia Mil. InstituteLynchburg, Va.June 17, 1864Maj. Gen. Wm. H. Richardson, A.G.General:I have the honor to report that immediately on the receipt of the orders of the Governor, transmitted through your office under date of June 6, 1864, I moved the Corps of Cadets from their camp near Richmond, and taking the Danville train on the morning of the 7th reached Lynchburg at 11 P.M. Hearing at Lynchburg that the enemy was threatening Lexington from Staunton and that Gen. McCausland's command was resisting his advance, I determined to move immediately to Lexington to his support. The cadets were transported by freight boats back to the mouth of the North River, and marched into Lexington on Thursday [June 9] at 3 P.M.
On Friday [June 10] intelligence was brought to me from Gen. McCausland that the enemy in strong force, estimated by him at 10,000, was advancing on the two main roads from Staunton to Lexington, and by 7 P.M. his command had been driven back from 1 1/2 miles of Staunton to Cameron's farm 2 miles from Lexington. I had a very long interview with Gen. McCausland that night, and said to him, that if, with the support of the Corps of Cadets, he could make an effective resistance, and save the town of Lexington, and with it, the public property placed in charge of the Corps of Cadets at the V.M. Institute, I was prepared to make any sacrifice necessary to this end. But if a sanguinary resistance in front of Lexington could only retard the advance of the enemy a few hours, involving thereby a useless sacrifice of life and endangering the capture of the cadets by a flank movement on either side of the town, I was not willing to make such a sacrifice or to run such a risk.
Gen. McCausland did not think he could hold the position without support from Gen. Breckinridge, but he deeming it important to retard the advance of the enemy, I determined to hold the cadets on their [ground or guard], ready to give support if required, upon the conditions above specified, with the understanding that [early] notice should be given [for them] to withdraw when resistance was no longer effectual. A courier was immediately dispatched by me to Lynchburg with intelligence of the state of things to Gen. Bragg and Breckinridge and the Governor which I desired Gen. Nicholl's command at Lynchburg to transmit by telegram.
About 8 A.M. on the 11th intimation was given to me of the advance of the enemy towards the town and at 9 A.M. three lines of their skirmishers occupied the hills on the north side of the North River. Gen. McCausland having destroyed the bridge over the North River, planted a section of artillery on the Magazine hill, and occupied the adjacent hills south of the river with sharpshooters. Firing soon commenced, and an active artillery fire was kept up for several hours, without loss to our side. By 1 o'clock it became evident that the enemy had crossed above Leyburn's mills, and was advancing by Kerr's Creek. I deemed it prudent at once to withdraw and gave orders to Lt. Col. Ship to move by the Fair Grounds road and cross the N. River by the bridge at its mouth, and encamp near Balcony Falls that night. At 2 1/2 P.M. Gen. McCausland withdrew with his command & proceeded by the Fancy Hill road towards Buchanan, strongly pressed by the enemy who entered the town at 3 1/2 P.M.
As guard & protection to the citizens who were moving their servants & stock by the James River, to Bedford and Amherst, I determined to hold the pass at the Balcony Falls. Effective protection was thus given to a large amount of private property, while I was not without the hope that withdrawal of the enemy from Lexington might enable us to return. A raid, however, upon Amherst, and the advance of Averill & pursuit of McCausland into Bedford, made it unsafe to remain above Waugh's Ferry, and Wednesday I gave orders to to retire towards Lynchburg. We met a dispatch on the way from Gen. Breckinridge directing the movement, and at 8 A.M. on Thursday the 16th we arrived in Lynchburg, and I immediately reported by telegraph to your office, for the orders of the Governor & Board of Visitors.
On Sunday the 12 June all the public buildings of the Institute were burnt by the order of Major General D. Hunter, except my quarters and the quarters of the ordnance Sergeant. The peculiar condition of my daughter, with a child only 48 hours old, induced my wife [Sarah Henderson Smith] to throw herself upon the courtesy of the commanding General. The appeal was not in vain; and I acknowledge with pleasure, this relaxation of the devastation which was unsparingly applied to every species of property owned by the state at the V.Mil. Institute, which we were unable to remove. The beautiful statue of Washington cast by Hubard from Houdon's model, was removed.
I have brought with the command 4 Brass pieces, 2 rifle guns 3 in. and ammunition, and had privately disposed of the section of the Letcher Battery given to the Institute. The mountain Howitzers, ammunition and old cadet muskets were turned over to the Confederate authorities, and I hold the receipt of the commanding officer at Lexington for them. I understand they were caught above the break in the canal, and were destroyed or captured.
The most valuable part of the Library and Philosophical apparatus with the paintings had been removed to Washington College and to the houses of friends. I have not heard whether they had been removed or destroyed. The residence of Governor Letcher, with all his effects, was destroyed, and I have heard [the] house was searched and robbed of the essentials of life, especially of flour & meat.
In a time of war it was not to be expected that the Va. Mil. Institute should escape the effects of the devastations which has visited by fire and rapine the fairest portions of our beloved commonwealth, and the apprehension of its capture became more serious as the necessities of the hour withdrew from from our support, the army [that] had defended the Valley of Va. It was a painful contemplation to all associated with the Va. Mil. Institute, to know, that the buildings erected by the liberality of the state for the use of her favored military school, were in the hands of the spoiler and when the clouds of heaven reflected the conflagration lighted by the torch of the invader, every eye was moistened that the home of the V.M.I. cadet was gone!
But the Virginia Military Institute still proudly and defiantly stands. The brick and mortar which gave a temporary shelter to her nurturing sons, while they were buckling on the armor for the conflict, constituted not the Military school of Virginia. Thank God, that still lives. The Governor--its Board of Visitors--its Professors--its cadets--still remain in organized being, ready to work--and able to send forth, year by year, its alumni, to fill up the ranks of those who have fallen in the deadly struggle.
Some inconvenience will attend its losses--but all are prepared to sacrifice comfort to promote the end of our Revolution, and all become apt scholars when the trials of persecution give spirit and point to the motive which animates them. It cheers the heart of the patriot & especially of every friend of the V.M. Institute to witness the filial affection displayed by the cadets as they cluster around the proud standard committed to their charge by the Governor of Va. Homeless but not defenseless, night by night they pitch their moving camp, but around the camp fires there is a tie of brotherhood which bonds heart to heart, as each remembers he is a V.M.I. cadet!
Some such spirit as this was indeed to have been expected by those of us who have watched the progress of the Institute from its first inception in 1839, and who have been familiar with the peculiar difficulties by which it has been surrounded. But the cheerful alacrity in the discharge of every duty, the patient endurance under great hardships, such only as veterans are accustomed to, and the buoyant spirit, not daunted by the late disaster, speak in [tones] which far transcend any description, and [can] [stand] as hopeful auguries upon which to maintain and [support] the Military Institute.
At present all our supplies are exhausted, except some 50 head of cattle should they have [to be of use]. They were in good hands. The academic year was near its close, & supplies were low of necessity. Flour & bacon may be obtained by the fall, if a suitable place can be provided, until the building can be repaired. Its walls are good.
The following places have occurred to me. The Rockbridge Baths--the Rockbridge Alum Springs--& the Montgomery White Sulphur Spr.
I await the order of the Board of Visitors.I remain, General, Very Resp. /signed/Francis H. Smith, Supt.


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MIAMI (AP) — Health officials say a second deadly case of bacterial meningitis has been confirmed in South Florida.
Miami-Dade County officials say 25-year-old Bryant De La Cruz died Tuesday morning, just hours after first being admitted and discharged from Baptist Hospital. Family members say he was on his way back to the hospital when he died.
Coral Reef High School Student Christopher Valdes died last month within an hour of arriving at Jackson South.
The Miami Herald (http://hrld.us/RFvcQL ) reports that symptoms of bacterial meningitis include nausea, vomiting, sensitivity to light, stiff neck and confusion.
Neither death was related to the recent national outbreak of fungal meningitis linked to contaminated pain injections.


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NVB offers a variety of payroll services. Find the one that fits your needs.
Now is the time to make your dream home a reality.
Keep your future looking bright with an NVIS Investment Plan.
Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers face a difficult task this week. Although
it is not expected that they will raise rates again as soon as this week's meeting,
they have to communicate the Fed's policy intentions...
The Five Forecasters still favor the continuation of the current bull market
and no recession.
Emerging markets debt (EMD) valuations have cheapened in recent weeks,
as weaker Chinese economic data and lower oil prices pushed prices lower
and yield spreads higher.
The latest Beige Book
suggests that the U.S.
economy is still growing
near its long-term trend.
However, Main Street's
latest assessment
suggests that the
manufacturing sector
continues to be affected
by oil and energy prices.
The number of bulls is dwindling. In periods of extreme market volatility
such as we have experienced in recent weeks
In Part 2 of our Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike playbook, we assess how
municipal bonds have fared during periods of Fed rate increases.
The start of fourth quarter earnings season may help the stock market
find its footing.
Once again, the precipitous decline in the value of the Chinese stock market
has spilled over to the broader global financial markets.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) first rate hike in nine years is officially history,
and a look back at prior interest rate hike periods may help bond investors
decide how to position portfolios for 2016 and beyond.
A number of key U.S. and global economic reports are due out this week
(January 4 – 8, 2016), as investors return from the holiday break and refocus on
many of the same issues that bedeviled the market in 2015, including the price
of oil and the signal it is sending about the health of the global economy.
It was a lackluster 2015 for the stock market with the S&P 500 managing a
total return of just 1.4% (dividends included).
Finally! For the first time in nine years, the Fed finally raised interest rates.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking
arm of the Federal Reserve (Fed), finally raised the target for the federal funds
rate by 0.25% on Wednesday, December 16, 2015.
As we noted in our Outlook 2016: Embrace the Routine publication, the start
of a new Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike cycle may grab investors' attention,
but investors must distinguish where it is more likely to disrupt their
accustomed routine (bonds) and where it is more likely to be just a distraction
High-yield bond weakness has led investors to fear that a recession or bear
market may be forthcoming.
We expect a limited return environment may persist in 2016 and the year
as a whole may look similar to 2015.
Our view is that the U.S. economy — as measured by real gross domestic
product (GDP) — is likely to post growth of 2.5 – 3.0% in 2016.
Gains in 2016 may require tolerance for volatility. Stocks historically have
offered a tradeoff of higher return for higher risk...
stocks to navigate the
eventual start of the
Fed rate hike cycle with
the benefit of a
continued U.S.
economic expansion
and earnings gains in
the months ahead.
Although Fed stimulus
and low interest rates
have played a role in
fueling the current bull
market, earnings
growth has been a far
bigger factor.
In the wake of last week's
FOMC decision not to
raise rates, markets
focused more on the
FOMC statement and
press conference than the
dovish tone the decision
may have suggested.
In addition to inflation
data, the Fed may be
looking back at
historical effects of Fed
tightening during
international turmoil.
We continue to expect
the Fed to hike in coming
months, likely in
December 2015.
The outcome of this
week's Fed meeting is
unlikely to materially
alter the total return
environment for fixed
income investors.
High-quality bonds can
still provide gains and
diversification benefits
during periods of
rising rates.
A challenging low-return
environment still
confronts investors.
Fighting the Fed may be
a winnable battle for EM.
EM valuations are
compelling and, in our
view, have priced in a
fair amount of risk.
We see sufficient
upside potential to
maintain modest EM
equity allocations
despite significant
growth challenges.
Although there is a
chance the Fed will raise
rates this week, our view
remains that the Fed will
hike later this year, most
likely at the December
2015 meeting.
While much of the focus
has been on "when,"
market participants may
start asking "how much"
and "how fast" rates may
increase once the Fed
begins to raise the rates.
The current disconnect on
the "how much" and
"how fast" between the
FOMC and the financial
markets could be a major
issue for financial market
participants in the
months ah
Inflation expectations,
the yield curve, and
stock market volatility
have raised the bar for
a September rate hike.
The Fed has a tall task
ahead to justify a
September rate hike,
but it nonetheless
remains a possibility.
We believe the Fed will
wait until December
2015 or possibly even
early 2016, as there
appears little downside
risk to holding off.
In challenging market
environments, technical
analysis tools can
help us make better
investment decisions.
Our technical playbook
suggests recent market
weakness may present
a buying opportunity.
We are mindful of risks
that might impact our
playbook, including a
potential China hard
landing or a central
bank policy mistake.
The latest Beige Book
suggests that the U.S.
economy is still growing
at or above its long-term
trend, and that emerging
upward wage pressures
may get the Fed's
attention soon.
Optimism regarding the
economic outlook far
outweighed pessimism
throughout the Beige
Book once again.
Concerns over China's
impact on the U.S.
economy have increased
on Main Street.
This week we answer the
top 12 investor questions in
response to the S&P 500's
12% correction.
We expect the U.S.
economic expansion and
bull market may continue
through year-end, despite
the latest stock market
correction and
China uncertainty.
We reiterate our forecast
for stocks to produce midto
high-single-digit returns
in 2015.
Markets remain
concerned with China's
stock market and its
potential impact on
global economic growth.
Although the U.S. only
sends 7% of its exports
to China, several of the
world's top economies
have large export
relationships with China.
Despite China's ongoing
slowdown since 2010,
media attention has risen
sharply in recent weeks.
High-yield bond
valuations have
cheapened in sympathy
with equity market
volatility but have shown
relative resilience.
Some signs of credit
quality deterioration
have emerged but
remain at the fringes of
the market and are not
representative of
corporate bonds overall.
Corporate bond prices
may have moved more
than justified by
fundamental data.
The latest reading on the
Conference Board's
monthly LEI helps to
provide some timely
guidance regarding
recent market volatility.
The LEI says the risk of
recession in the next 12
months is very low (4%),
but not zero.
Based on the level of
the LEI relative to its
prior peak, the current
economic expansion
may last at least
another four years.
As a bull market matures
over the second half of an
economic expansion,
periods of increased market
volatility are likely to
become more common.
Periods of volatility bouts
will likely create a more
challenging environment for
investors, and in the short
term, sentiment can control
markets as investor
sensitivity to certain
risks spikes.
We believe the
fundamentals and the
dynamism of American
corporations are likely
to drive further stock
market gains.
The year-to-date
performance advantage
of high-yield bonds
relative to Treasuries
(based on the Barclays
High Yield and Treasury
indexes) has been
reduced to a very
narrow margin
following rising
oil-related default
We find current
expectations, which
imply a 15% default
rate over one year,
overly pessimistic.
Few bond maturities
come due through the
end of 2016, a key
factor that will likely
support a low-default
environment for
high-yield bonds
Q2 GDP results to date
suggest global growth
in 2015 is accelerating
versus 2014, despite
some high-profile
GDP misses and
China concerns.
The Eurozone appears
to have some economic
momentum after nearly
a half-decade of
sluggish growth, with
Q2 GDP acceleration
Expectations for the back to
school shopping season are
low, and this season may only
be flat versus last year.
Several consumer spending
tailwinds suggest the
consumer discretionary sector
may be poised to outperform
through year-end.
Fixed income markets
showed signs of a
growth scare in July
2015, with lower real
yields, lower inflation
expectations, and a
flatter yield curve.
The markets' reaction
may be a signal to the
Fed that September
2015 is too early for an
interest rate increase.
Recent growth
concerns may be
creating opportunities.
The declining labor
force participation rate
continues to receive
attention from the media
and the public, although
largely ignored by
the markets.
We continue to expect
the U.S. economy could
potentially create
between 225,000 and
250,000 net new jobs
per month in 2015.
Labor force growth
plus productivity
growth are important
indicators for long-term
economic growth.
Although some European
countries have made
progress with structural
reforms, much more work
is needed.
The lack of progress on
many structural reforms
in countries outside of
Germany continues to
weigh on the Eurozone's
global competiveness.
The verdict is still out on
Greece and its promised
structural reforms.
Emerging markets debt
(EMD) spreads have
moved above 4%, a
level that has attracted
buying interest in
recent years.
EMD is more sensitive
to interest rates than
the broad U.S. fixed
income market.
We continue to favor
high-yield bonds due to
their lower interest
rate sensitivity.
Puerto Rico's debt
crisis remains isolated
and not symptomatic
of the broad municipal
bond market.
Signs of contagion
have not materialized
and appear unlikely,
although the
probability of a default
has increased.
Puerto Rico bond
prices largely reflect a
default and are trading
close to anticipated
recovery values.
The latest Beige Book
suggests that the U.S.
economy is still growing
at or above its long-term
trend, and that some
upward wage pressures
continue to emerge.
Optimism regarding the
economic outlook far
outweighed pessimism
throughout the Beige
Book, as it has for the
past two years or so.
Our new Beige Book
Barometer for the three
Fed districts with the
most energy-related
economic activity reveals
more weakness.
The additional supply
expected from Iran and the
slow response by producers
to reduce supply may
lengthen oil's stay in the
$5 0– 60 range.
We have tempered our
previous enthusiasm for the
energy sector and at current
oil price levels view it as a
market performer.
Q2 earnings season may look
a lot like Q1 as companies
once again face the twin
drags of the energy downturn
and strong U.S. dollar.
Corporate America may
impress in other ways, such
as its resilience to the latest
Greece and China flare-ups.
As earning season
progresses, we will watch for
evidence that earnings will
accelerate in the second half.
Due to still expensive
valuations and low
yields, we believe the
current low-return
environment could
potentially persist for
high-quality bonds for
several years.
Rising interest rate risk
and still declining income
generation pose an
additional challenge.
As companies report
second quarter 2015
results, the health of the
global economy will likely
get plenty of attention.
The U.S., China, the
Eurozone, and Japan
account for nearly
two-thirds of global
economic activity; thus,
these areas are where
global growth matters
the most.
The market continues to
expect that global GDP
growth will accelerate in
2015, 2016, and 2017,
aided by lower oil prices
and stimulus from two of
the three leading central
banks in the world.
Bond market's reaction
to Greek events has
been muted so far and
justifiably so.
Key safety nets put in
place by the European
Central Bank and
policymakers in recent
years support limited
bond market impacts.
The growth trend
continues to dominate
long-term bond prices
and yields despite
unfolding Greek events.
The referendum result this
weekend throws Greece's
future in the currency union
firmly in doubt.
Here we address the question
of whether the heightened
risk of a Greek exit from the
Eurozone might lead to
contagion for global markets.
We do not believe Greece is
another "Lehman moment"
and it may present an
attractive buying opportunity
for European equities.
Our view remains that the
Fed is on track to hike
rates for the first time in
this cycle in late 2015.
The longer the
uncertainty around
Greece lingers, the
greater the odds that the
Fed doesn't hike rates
until early 2016.
A decisive upturn in
wage inflation remains
key to moving inflation
and inflation
expectations higher.
Municipal supply has
been a headwind for
much of 2015 but
appears to be tapering
off ahead of a typical
summer slowdown.
Over the longer term,
still tight state
budgets may keep
broader municipal
supply restrained and
limit growth of the
overall municipal bond
market, which could
become a tailwind.
Despite the constant
flow of negative
headlines, primarily
from Puerto Rico, the
overall credit quality
of the municipal
market appears to be
on solid footing.
Better economic
growth and higher
inflation expectations
are driving confidence
in the trajectory of the
global economy.
Lower yields and
lingering price
pressures still point to a
very low-return
environment for
high-quality bonds
in 2015.
The combination of
corporate and Treasury
supply may keep
headwinds on
bond investors.
We do not believe transports'
weakness is a signal of an
impending economic and
market downturn.
Historical data suggest
transports' underperformance
may actually be signaling a
buying opportunity for the
S&P 500 rather than a sell.
We believe transports
present an attractive
investment opportunity for
the second half of 2015.
We continue to expect
roughly flat bond
returns for 2015, as the
choppy market
environment witnessed
over the first half of
2015 continues.
The challenging,
confronting bond
investors is likely
to persist.
We continue to expect
the U.S. economy will
expand at a rate of 3% or
slightly higher over the
remainder of 2015.
Good old American
know-how continues to
be in demand.
Overseas, monetary
policies continue to drive
global growth, impacting
most of the largest
international economies.
We believe corporate
America will provide a much
needed boost for the second
half — providing the seventh
year of positive returns in
2015, in the 5 – 9% range
we forecast.
Our forecast is based on
expected mid-single-digit
EPS growth for S&P 500
companies, supported by
improved global economic
growth, stable profit margins,
and share buybacks in 2015,
with limited help from
valuation expansion.
The latest Beige Book
suggests that the U.S.
economy is still growing
at a pace that is at or
above its long-term trend,
and that some upward
pressure on wages is
beginning to emerge.
Optimism regarding the
economic outlook far
outweighed pessimism
throughout the Beige
Book, as it has for the
past two years or so.
The upcoming ACA
Supreme Court decision
may create a buying
opportunity for the
healthcare sector.
We believe the odds favor
the status quo, meaning
that any selling pressure
related to the risk of
losing insured patients
may present a
buying opportunity.
We see a potentially
brighter future ahead
for municipal bonds,
despite a difficult
second quarter thus
far, due to still
attractive valuations,
higher yields, and a
favorable summer
seasonal period.
A low-single-digit total
return is plausible
given our expectation
for a modest rise in
interest rates coupled
with valuation
improvement relative
to Treasuries.
Lingering uncertainty
over Greece, U.S.
economic growth, and
the Fed may continue to
create a tug-of-war on
bond prices that will
likely continue to lead
to a low-return
We believe additional
bond market strength
is likely limited.
We give the Fed partial
credit on equity and bond
market impact.
The U.S. equity market
performed exceptionally
well during all three QE
rounds, with the broad
stock market increasing
by 164%, as measured by
the Russell 3000. The Fed
partially helped lower
bond yields (and boost
bond returns) during its
QE program.
European earnings have
surprised on the upside
while guidance has led
to rising estimates,
contributing to strong
recent performance by
European stocks.
Japan's first quarter
revenue growth outpaced
both the U.S. and Europe,
while Japanese
companies beat revenue
forecasts at a solid rate.
Greece is unlikely to
maintain its debt
repayment schedule
without a resolution.
A default and a Greek exit
may add volatility to the
equity markets, but do not
appear to present a
systemic risk at this point.
With six months of
economic and market
data since the end of QE,
we assess the latest
round of the program that
ended in October 2014.
We focus on the Fed's dual
mandate to promote low
and stable inflation and
maximum employment.
We give the Fed a pass
on the unemployment
rate, but have to assign a
failing grade on its
progress with inflation.
A lack of liquidity
continues to plague
the bond market, as
indicated by elevated
dealer holdings of
long-term bonds and
light trading volume.
Volatility may remain
elevated in the
short term.
Knowing your
breakeven can help
bond investors assess
how resistant their
current portfolio is to
rising interest rates,
and identify areas that
offer value.
With six months of
economic and market data
since the end of QE, we
assess the latest round of
the program that ended in
October 2014.
We focus on QE's impact
on the banking and
financial sector, by
examining the amount of
financial stress in the
system, which overall has
decreased since the
beginning of QE in
November 2008.
We give the Fed a "pass"
on QE as it relates to
banking and financial
system stress.
This week we pay tribute
to David Letterman's last
Late Show with our own
top 10 list: the top 10 keys
for stocks.
A potential snapback in
the U.S. economy is the
number one issue for the
stock market, but here we
list nine other issues that
will be important in
determining where stocks
go in the near term.
Unlike the taper
tantrum, which was
driven by fears over the
end of Fed stimulus, the
current pullback is
being driven by a
position imbalance in
our view.
Lower-rated bond
sectors have fared best
during the pullback.
A lower allocation to
bonds overall may still
be warranted, given the
lack of opportunity and
reduced protection
offered by still
historically low yields
and high valuations.
The S&P 500 is on track
to post year-over-year
earnings growth of about
2% in the first quarter — a
solid result considering the
significant drags from the
oil downturn and strong
U.S. dollar.
Healthcare led the upside,
followed by energy,
technology, and financials,
while industrials struggled.
While wage growth has
been tepid recently, 67
industries have seen
wages increase at double
the average (21% per
annum), with good old
American know-how roles
well represented.
The April employment
report suggests wage
growth likely remains a
concern for Fed
policymakers as they
debate when to begin
raising rates.
Our view remains that the
Fed may begin to hike
rates in late 2015.
We believe emerging
markets (EM) score well
when evaluated along
some of the same
criteria that NFL football
teams use to assess
potential draft picks:
speed, strength, value,
upside potential,
and character.
According to our
evaluation, EM scores
very well on the first
four metrics, and the
fifth — character — is
sufficiently discounted
in terms of policy
and corporate
governance risks.
EM may make a good
draft pick to add to
your portfolios.
Europe bond weakness
spilled over to the U.S.
as investors look past
week domestic data
and forward to a better
second half of 2015.
Fading U.S. dollar
strength, better growth
in Europe, and the
rebound in oil prices
point to a reversal of
the lower inflation
expectations that
powered bond strength
for most of 2014 and
early 2015.
Since the peak in oil
prices in June 2014,
consumers saved
some, spent some on
nonessential items,
and paid down some
debt, even as
measures of consumer
sentiment soared.
The big drop in
gasoline prices has not
provided a big lift to
the consumer sector,
which continues to
struggle in this
recovery, nor did it
change the overall
tepid trajectory of
consumer spending.
Intermediate to
long-term Treasury
yields increased by
0.01% to 0.11% for the
week ending April 24,
2015, despite weaker
economic data.
Fed rate hike
expectations reached
their most marketfriendly
Rate hike expectations
remain notably below
the Fed's recently
reduced rate forecasts
by a roughly 50%
margin over the next
three years.
First quarter economic
weakness will likely
get plenty of attention
this week, when the
initial estimate of Q1
2015 GDP is expected
to confirm tepid growth
during the quarter.
We continue to expect
that the FOMC will
begin to raise rates in
late 2015, when it is
"reasonably confident"
that inflation will move
back to its 2%
objective over the
medium term.
Economic performance
since the end of the
recession has varied
widely by state, with
oil playing a key role.
Investors continued to
embrace risk this past
week as the Nasdaq
reached a new high
while peripheral
European bonds and
emerging market
equities rallied.
Regional economic
growth continues to
diverge but slowly moves
ahead, largely pushed by
internal demand and
supported by liberal
monetary policy.
Foreign buying of U.S.
bonds has slowed over
recent years but
remains a firm source
of demand in the
domestic bond market.
Foreign purchases are
likely to continue to
take a backseat to
economic growth and
Federal Reserve
interest rate
expectations as a
driver of bond prices
and yields.
The Russell 2000 Index
hit a fresh all-time high
last week (on tax day,
April 15, 2015) and has
outpaced large caps by
205 basis points (2.05%)
year to date.
Although valuations are
on the high side, the
factors that have driven
recent small cap
strength, in our view,
remain largely intact.
Small cap technicals
appear bullish,
with positive relative
strength and an upward
sloping 40-week
moving average.
The latest Beige Book
suggests that the U.S.
economy is still growing
at a pace that is at or
above its long-term trend,
and that some upward
pressure on wages is
beginning to emerge.
Optimism regarding the
economic outlook far
outweighed pessimism
throughout the Beige
Book as it has for the
Bonds started the
second quarter on a
weak note as investors
anticipate economic
improvement during
the second quarter.
However, bond market
pricing indicates the
Fed may never get back
to "normal" and that
rates will remain lower
for longer.
We expect yields to
start to move higher
in the second quarter,
but until more clarity
develops, bonds yields
may drift at the
lower end of their
recent range.
The market continues to
expect that global GDP
growth will accelerate in
2015, 2016, and 2017,
aided by lower oil prices
and stimulus from the BOJ
and the ECB, two of the
three leading central
banks in the world.
The prospect for another
year of decelerating
growth in emerging
markets remains a
concern for some
investors, who may still be
waiting (in vain) for China
to post 10 – 12% growth
rates, as it consistently did
during the early to
Regardless of whether
China hits its 7% GDP
target for Q1, its stock
market has already been
positive so far this year.
Despite strong recent
performance, Chinese
stocks may see
further gains.
We maintain our positive
view of broad EM, with a
preference for Asia.
We believe the solid Q1
2015 broad bond
market performance is
unlikely to be
sustainable for the
duration of the year.
The development of
a range-bound
environment may
slow returns in the
coming months.
First quarter 2015
earnings may produce
the first year-over-year
decline since the
financial crisis due to
the drags of low oil
prices and the
strong dollar.
Results for S&P 500
companies may exceed
dramatically reduced
We continue to expect
earnings to drive stock
market gains in 2015,
as we stated in our
Outlook 2015: In Transit,
and we see better
earnings prospects as
the year progresses.
Examining the number of
mentions of certain
buzzwords across news
stories, we see a pattern
of spikes that are
followed by consistent
declines over time.
While these buzzwords
come and go, earnings
and earnings guidance
are near constants in
news stories — as they
are the ultimate drivers
of equity prices.
The sharp increase in
new municipal issuance
has been driven by
issuers refinancing
existing debt, making
the recent surge far less
of a risk to the market.
We do not see recent
new issuance changing
the favorable
underpinning the
municipal bond market.
The Final Four of the 2015 NCAA College Basketball Tournament is set with
Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State headed to Indianapolis to determine
this year's college hoops champion. In that spirit, we share our own Final Four for
stock market investing:
We continue to expect the
broad economy could
potentially create
between 225,000 and
250,000 net new jobs per
month in 2015.
Although job growth has
improved, wage inflation,
an important measure of
labor market health, is not
yet back to "normal."
A more robust pace of job
growth should coincide
with an upturn in wage
inflation, yet the
relationship between the
two has been mixed over
the past 30 years or so.
A snapshot of
LPL Financial Research's
views on equity, equity
sectors, fixed income, and
alternative asset classes.
This biweekly publication
illustrates our current views
and will change as needed
over a 3- to 12-month
time horizon.
The high-yield energy
sector has kept pace
with the broader
high-yield bond market
in 2015 even as oil prices
weakened, a notable
difference from 2014.
Although we don't
believe the high-yield
bond market will return
to the June 2014 peak,
the current yield spread
may still represent good
value given still strong
corporate fundamentals
and low defaults.
Using intermarket
analysis is important to
reduce the risk of
missing vital directional
clues within the
financial markets.
Recently, a strong U.S.
dollar has created
headwinds for the
euro, crude oil, and
emerging markets.
The outcome of last
week's FOMC meeting
confirmed our long-held
view that the Fed would
keep rates "lower
for longer."
A report that may have
been overlooked by
financial market
participants last week is
the LEI, which is designed
to predict the future path
of the economy.
The LEI suggests the risk
of recession in the next
12 months is negligible
(4%), but not zero.
The Fed faces a number
of obstacles now and
may require greater
justification to suggest
raising interest rates as
soon as June.
Bond market reaction to
recent Fed meetings has
been initially bearish but
muted overall.
Maintaining the word
"patient" could have
different implications
for segments of the
bond market.
What the FOMC says, if
anything, about the rising
dollar and its implications,
could have ramifications
for monetary policy over
the next several quarters
and beyond.
In addition to "when,"
market participants may
start asking "how much"
and "how fast" rates may
increase once the Fed
begins to raise the rates.
We are watching several
factors to gauge when the
Fed may begin to hike
rates, including wages,
the output gap, inflation,
and inflation expectations.
We do not think the
strong U.S. dollar will
derail the bull market.
The dollar itself is not a
key driver of market
performance; it is
a symptom.
Market-implied inflation
expectations have
increased after reaching
a multiyear low in
mid-January 2015.
Thus far in 2015, the
inflation protection
provided by Treasury
Securities (TIPS) has
provided a buffer, with
TIPS outperforming
The current bull market
celebrates its sixth
birthday today
(March 9, 2015).
Bull markets do not
die of old age, they
die of excesses, and
we do not see
evidence of excesses
emerging today.
Some of our favorite
leading indicators
suggest the economic
expansion and bull
market may continue
through the end
of 2015.
January 2015 was the
best month for
high-quality bonds
since December 2008.
In February 2015,
high-quality bonds
posted their worst
monthly performance
since June 2013 and
the taper tantrum
High-yield bonds
experienced ups and
downs thus far in 2015.
After a muted January,
high-yield bonds
returned 2.4% in
February, the largest
single month gain since
October 2013.
The Nasdaq Composite
just hit 5000 today as
this report was going to
press and is nearing its
all-time record closing
high of 5048.
Even with the Nasdaq
at 5000, we do
not believe stocks
have reached
bubble territory.
The Nasdaq has a much
stronger foundation
today of valuations,
profits, and sentiment.
We do not expect the
weakness witnessed in
2013, but a difficult
February 2015 thus far
warrants another look
at assessing interest
rate risk, especially
given the likely start of
Federal Reserve (Fed)
interest rate hikes later
this year.
Sector allocation,
maturity exposure, time
horizon, and whether
interest income is
reinvested or simply
spent, all influence
potential total returns
during a potential bear
market for bonds.
We continue to expect
housing may add to GDP
growth in 2015 and for
the next several years,
as the market normalizes
following the severe
housing bust of
2005 – 2010.
Poor weather in Q1 2015
may again cause housing
to be a drag on growth
early in 2015.
The market's continued
ascent has caused
some to ask if the stock
market reflects
excessive optimism.
The pace of economic
surprises as measured by
the Citigroup Economic
Surprise Index suggests
expectations remain
Puerto Rico municipal
bond price volatility
picked up following the
strike down of the
restructuring law, as
the market began to
price in the prospect of
a broader default.
The impact on the
broader municipal market
is still limited, as has
been the case for much of
the past 18 months.
Default risk for Puerto
Rico remains but we still
find the broader municipal
bond market attractive.
We are watching
several key factors to
assess the potential
opportunity in the
energy sector.
While we expect to try
to take advantage of
opportunities in this
group in short order, we
are not convinced that
it now presents a great
entry point.
We continue to
recommend the
consumer discretionary
sector, where suitable,
as a way to play low
energy prices.
The market continues to
expect that global GDP
growth will accelerate
in 2015 and 2016, aided
by lower oil prices and
stimulus from two of the
three leading central
banks in the world.
The consensus has been
raising its estimate for
2015 growth for developed
economies and sharply
lowering its estimate for
emerging markets.
The negative bond yield
club is exclusively
comprised of European
issuers reflecting the
ongoing deflationary
environment, poor
growth expectations,
euro currency risks, and
negative overnight
borrowing rates at
selected central banks.
Overseas-based bond
investors may have
several reasons to
purchase bonds with
negative yields, but, to
no surprise, none of
those are compelling
enough for U.S.-based
look at some of the
highlights and lowlights
of fourth quarter
earnings season.
Despite the massive drag
from the energy sector
and the negative impact
of a strong U.S. dollar,
fourth quarter 2014
earnings are on track to
exceed prior estimates.
Although it is too soon
to gauge the
effectiveness of QE in
the Eurozone, key
readings and data are
beginning to show
improvement, and
consensus expectations
are for continued
growth in 2015.
However, market
participants looking for
an immediate and
sustained response by
the Eurozone economy to
QE may be disappointed.
A soft start for the U.S.
stock market in 2015
once again illustrates
the diversification
benefit of high-quality
bonds even at very
low yields.
Even in a low-yield
environment, bonds
provide a cushion as
price movements, not
yields, are the primary
buffer to equity
An allocation to core
bonds, in addition to
more attractively
valued high-yield
bonds, may make sense
for investors.
The stock market fell in
January, causing some to
ask whether the so-called
January effect means
that stocks will fall
this year.
Recall less than four
weeks ago the "first five
days" indicator sent a
positive stock market
signal for 2015.
We always put
fundamentals first when
forecasting stock market
direction—and on that
score, we believe stocks
still look good.
The market is expecting
the economy to add
235,000 net new jobs in
January 2015 and for the
unemployment rate to
remain at 5.6%.
Other measures of the
health of the labor
market — hiring rates, the
quit rate, the
unemployment rate, and
most importantly,
wages — still show that
the labor market is not yet
back to normal.
Recent central bank
action has reinforced the
"lower for longer"
interest rate theme in
global bond markets.
This week's Fed meeting
may temper marketfriendly
central bank
trends, but seems
unlikely to alter the
current environment.
We are initiating a master limited partnership (MLP) view (neutral/positive) and
introducing several new alternative investment categories.
Upgrading technology and industrials to positive and munis (int.) to neutral/positive.
The latest leg up for the
U.S. dollar has been
driven by anticipation and
arrival of QE by the ECB.
The dollar has been
strong for a number of
reasons, all of them
good things.
Though not the end all
and be all, currency is an
important consideration
when determining
asset allocation.
The pace of growth in the
global economy is a key
driver of global earnings
growth, and ultimately,
the performance of global
equity markets.
The IMF raised its
estimate for growth in
2015 for developed
economies and sharply
lowered its estimate for
emerging markets.
The ECB is widely
expected to announce a
Fed-style outright
government bond
purchase program
this week.
A large and bold plan
may arrest the rise in
global government bond
prices, but anything else
may reinforce the record
low-yield environment.
The latest Beige Book
reflected a picture of the
U.S. economy that was
largely unaffected by
concerns over dropping oil
prices, the 2014 holiday
shopping season, global
growth scares, and a
rising U.S. dollar, although
the drop in oil prices was
noted as a negative in
some districts.
The much anticipated
European Central Bank
(ECB) policy meeting this
week may include a
quantitative easing (QE)
program announcement.
Although we would view
a potentially bold QE
program from the ECB as
an incremental positive,
the ongoing growth and
deflation challenges in
Europe leave us still with
a strong preference for
the U.S.
The fall in 10- and
30-year Treasury yields
over the second half of
2014 has been driven
primarily by falling
inflation expectations,
rather than concern
over the health of the
U.S. economy.
The decline in European
government yields, unlike
U.S. Treasuries, reflects
both bleak growth
prospects and lower
inflation expectations.
The U.S. economy
created another
252,000 net new jobs in
December 2014 and 3
million over the course
of 2014, with the most
net new jobs added
since 1999.
The labor market still
has a long way to go to
get back to "normal,"
which may keep the Fed
on hold for raising rates
until late 2015.
Earnings season is here
and the impact of low
oil prices will be the
market's main focus.
While we will be closely
monitoring the energy
sector, we will also be
watching the sectors and
industries that potentially
benefit the most from
cheap oil.
The consumer
discretionary sector and
the transports are big
potential beneficiaries,
supporting our positive
views of both groups.
For just the second time
in the last 30 calendar
years, short-term 2-year
Treasury yields increased
while longer-term
10- and 30-year
Treasury yields fell.
The fourth quarter of
2014 will be a tale of
two earnings seasons:
the best of times and the
worst of times.
This week we examine
how the U.S. economy
in 1985 compares with
2015, focusing on
factors such as the pace
of the current economic
expansion, the political
balance in Washington,
consumer sentiment,
and the role of the Fed's
monetary policy.
The impact of falling oil and energy prices on
inflation, inflation expectations, the U.S. and
global economies, and the global financial
system received a great deal of attention at
the eighth and final FOMC meeting of 2014.
Fed Chair Yellen's comments during the
post-FOMC press conference seemed to have
calmed fears regarding the negative effects of
oil's drop on the financial system.
With 2015 almost here, this week we pose
and respond to 10 key stock market questions
for 2015. Look for more on these and other
topics throughout the year.
Lower inflation expectations as a result of
falling oil prices have weighed on TIPS prices
during the second half of 2014.
TIPS underperformance has led to the lowest
market-implied inflation expectations of the
past four years
We do, however, find TIPS an attractive
high-quality option and certainly more
appealing than Treasuries as a result of recent
Statements following the final FOMC meeting
of 2014, particularly on the recent drop in oil
prices and its impact on the U.S. economy,
could have ramifications for near- and longterm
monetary policy.
The FOMC will also provide markets with a
new set of targets at this meeting...
We expect holiday shoppers, bolstered by
lower energy prices, to help support potential
stock market gains.
Although the severity of the oil price decline
has been unsettling, we view the decline as
positive for U.S. consumers overall.
Retail stocks should deliver some cheer for
markets this holiday season, but don't stuff
those stockings with too much of them.
peak of $107 per barrel on June 20, 2014,
through Monday, December 8, 2014, we take
another look at the impact of lower oil prices
on the high-yield bond market.
Recent high-yield market weakness has
already accounted for a rise in defaults from
lower oil prices.
Even with weakness from rising defaults, we
believe high-yield bonds may outperform their
high-quality counterparts in 2015 due to their
existing yield advantage.
We expect the policy environment in 2015 to
be supportive for stocks.
The transfer of power to Republicans may have
a meaningful impact on broad policy measures.
Regardless of the political party in power,
the year before the presidential election has
historically been a good one for stocks.
The report suggested that U.S. economic
activity has "continued to expand," and in
general, optimism regarding the economic
outlook far outweighed pessimism, as it has
for the past 18 months or so.
For the first time in this business cycle,
the latest Beige Book contained more than
one mention of employers having difficulty
finding low-skilled workers, and retaining and
compensating key workers.
With sustained improvement in economic
growth, slowly rising inflation, and the
approach of the Fed's first interest rate hike,
bond prices are likely to decline in 2015.
High-yield bonds and bank loans can help
investors manage this challenging bond market.
We believe stocks will deliver mid- to highsingle-
digit returns in 2015.
We expect earnings, and not valuations, to do
the heavy lifting in producing potential stock
market gains for investors in 2015.
Monetary policy is in transit in 2015, when
stocks will face a shift from the very loose
monetary policy of the Federal Reserve's
(Fed) quantitative easing (QE) program to an
environment in which the Fed begins to hike
interest rates.
Valuations for the S&P 500 remain slightly
above long-term ave
We believe the U.S. economy will continue
its transition from the slow gross domestic
product (GDP) growth of 2011 – 2013 to more
sustained, broad-based growth.
We expect the U.S. economy will expand at
a rate of 3% or slightly higher in 2015, which
matches the average growth rate over the
past 50 years.
Read real-time insight into the trends that shape LPL Financial Research's recommended actions to manage portfolios, it has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.
Demand from overseas investors once
again helped the bond market shrug off
stronger economic data and weak Treasury
auction demand.
Favorable yield differentials between
Treasuries and key overseas bond yields may
provide lingering support for the domestic
bond market.
The Fed, this week's release of Fed meeting
minutes, and the European economy likely hold
the keys to unlocking the low-yield environment.
We believe emerging markets (EM)
fundamental conditions are set for
improvement in 2015, based on our outlooks
for economic growth, earnings, and policy.
Valuations are compelling and EM may be
situated to recapture some of their relative
losses from a technical perspective, particularly
in Asian markets.
However, somewhat mixed fundamental and
technical pictures suggest a better opportunity
may be forthcoming.
The much weaker than expected Q3 GDP
reading in Japan is a modest threat to overall
global growth for 2014 and into 2015.
We continue to believe the global economy will
continue to expand in 2014, 2015, and beyond.
The pace and composition of the policy
response from Japan in the coming weeks
and months are critical.
We find it premature to draw conclusions
regarding oil prices and the performance of the
broad high-yield bond market.
Default rates, the pace of economic growth,
and the strength of credit quality metrics
among high-yield issuers — not oil prices — will
be the primary drivers of high-yield bond
market returns.
While the certainty provided by an election
outcome has been positive for the stock
market over time, our positive stock
market outlook is based much more
on fundamentals.
It does not get more fundamental than
earnings, which are on track to grow by 10%
year over year for the second straight quarter.
Earnings season is not over, but with about
90% of S&P 500 companies having reported
results, we are ready to declare it a success.
The drop in gasoline prices over the fall and
summer months has been a plus for spending,
but other factors have a much bigger impact
on the consumer.
The better tone to the labor market, the sharp
rise in household net worth, and prerecession
levels of consumer confidence all act as
supports for the consumer.
However, stubbornly weak wage and income
growth remain as key constraints on spending.
Sustained economic growth is the best way to
ensure solid employment growth.
The headwinds of rising high-quality bond
yields and increasing new issuance have
slowed the advance of high-yield bonds in late
October 2014, relative to stock market gains.
Nonetheless, we expect high-yield bonds may
improve as economic expansion, earnings
growth, and low defaults continue to drive our
positive outlook.
We continue to expect a challenging, lowreturn
environment across the bond market,
with high-yield bonds a likely bright spot.
It is important to recognize that the S&P 500
is not GDP. S&P 500 companies have different
drivers for earnings than the components that
drive GDP.
The backdrop of solid business spending within a
slower trajectory of overall GDP growth can be a
favorable one for the stock market.
Although stocks are at the low end of our target
10–15% S&P 500 return range for 2014, we see
further gains between now and year end as likely,
with profit growth as a primary driver.
The Fed ended its bond purchase program last
week and the bar has been set fairly high for
restarting more QE.
The economy is in far better shape today,
compared with the start of QE in 2008 and
the end of QE1 and QE2.
It is probably too soon to know if QE has
"worked," and the better question may be, can
the U.S. economy stand on its own without QE?
We believe the BOJ and ECB are likely to do
more QE.
The Fed will end outright bond purchases this
week, barring any surprises from this week's
Fed meeting.
The end of bond purchases should not create
much market reaction, as bond investors
focus more on global economic growth and
expectations for interest rate hikes.
The Fed's breakup will not be a clean one as it
maintains a steady influence in the MBS market.
The U.S. economy is improving, and in
many cases is back to normal, but it remains
stubbornly weak in some areas.
"Real world" indicators that point to the
health of the economy include crane rental
rates and customer traffic in restaurants.
Economic uncertainty — likely a drag on
economic growth in 2011, 2012, and 2013 — has
faded as a concern in 2014, consistent with the
Fed's most recent Beige Book.
We remain confident in corporate America's
ability to generate solid earnings growth in the
current global economic environment despite the
slowdown in Europe (and to a lesser
extent, China).
A number of U.S. companies have performed
relatively well in Europe, with some not yet
seeing signs of a slowdown in their business.
The business environment overseas appears
to be good enough for companies to largely
maintain their outlooks for the rest of the
year and into 2015.
Yields may remain low for evidence of any
fallout or contagion to the U.S. economy; a
stretch of stronger economic data or bolder
action by overseas central banks are likely
needed catalysts for higher yields.
The on-guard mentality in the bond market
has pushed back timing for Federal Reserve
interest rate hikes.
We believe the oil sell-off is overdone and expect
the commodity to find a floor in the low $80s.
We expect firming global growth to increase
the market's confidence in global oil demand
despite weakness in Europe.
Energy service stocks are particularly oversold
and may be attractive as the services-intensive
U.S. energy renaissance continues.
The latest Beige Book reflects a picture of the
U.S. economy that has, thus far, been largely
unaffected by current geopolitical headlines.Optimism regarding the economic outlook far
outweighed pessimism, as it has for the past
18 months or so.
Inflation expectations have fallen sharply in recent
weeks, driven by European disinflation, lower
energy prices, and overall growth concerns.
The persistence of low inflation expectations
may intensify the "lower for longer" theme via
lower growth expectations and delays to potential
Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes.
We see the recent increase in volatility as normal
within the context of an ongoing bull market.
We do not believe the age of the bull market, at
more than 5.5 years old, means it should end.
We maintain our positive outlook for stocks for
the remainder of 2014 and into 2015.
The pace of growth in the global economy
is a key driver of global earnings growth,
and ultimately, the performance of global
equity markets.
Global GDP growth in 2014 remains on track
to accelerate versus 2013's pace, and the
consensus is forecasting acceleration in global
growth in 2015.
Potential growth headwinds in 2015 include...
A challenging bond market environment will
likely persist over the remainder of the year
and perhaps beyond.
Valuations across many bond sectors remain
above historical averages and reflect an
expensive market.
We believe corporate bonds may provide
investors with the best defense in what will likely
be a continuation of the low-return environment.
Earnings season is here and may counteract
the negative headlines with another
dose of positive fundamental news.
We expect the third quarter of 2014 could
produce another good earnings season, which
we believe may positively impact stocks.
While there are some headwinds, Europe
in particular, the U.S. economic backdrop is
supportive and profit margins should remain
high, given the few signs of cost pressures.
The nation's fiscal situation has improved
dramatically in the past five years due
to overall economic improvement and a
combination of higher tax rates and modest
spending increases.
However, structural and demographic
problems that will drive the deficit over the
next several decades remain in place.
If policymakers continue to ignore critical
warning signs, the near-term improvement in
the budget picture is unlikely to last.
We continue to expect housing may add to
GDP growth in 2014 and for the next several
years as the market normalizes following the
severe housing bust of 2005 – 2010.
Housing affordability and supply, and the
supply and demand for home mortgages, will
likely determine the pace at which housing
increases GDP growth in the years ahead.
The inventory of new and existing homes for
sale as a percentage of total households has
never been lower.
The yield curve has a perfect record in
signaling recessions over the past 50 years.
One of our "Five Forecasters," the yield
curve tells us that a recession and significant
market downturn are likely a ways off.
A change of seasons should be noted by
municipal investors, as a seasonal increase
in new issuance may be a catalyst to lower
returns after a strong 2014.
It is not uncommon for revenues to slow as
the economy matures, and we do not view the
slowdown in state tax revenues as worrisome
for municipal bond investors.
Last week we discussed why buying
European stocks now, following the recent
stimulus announced by the ECB, is very
different from buying U.S. stocks during
periods of Fed stimulus in recent years.
This week we take a deeper dive into the
investment opportunity in Europe and evaluate
fundamentals, valuations, and technicals.
We recommend that investors "fight the ECB."
We do not believe the additional stimulus
is enough for us to recommend European
equities over U.S. equities at this time.
The key now for the Fed, as it deliberates
when to begin to raise rates, is to gauge how
quickly the output gap is likely to close.
The pace at which the U.S. economy
takes up slack is likely to command a great
deal of attention from the Fed and market
participants in the coming months.
We believe the first Fed rate hike is likely to
occur in about a year's time, assuming the
economy tracks the FOMC's forecast.
Despite recent weakness, bonds continue
to discount the pace and magnitude of Fed
rate hikes.
A few facets of this week's Fed meeting may
reveal whether the recent pullback in bonds
continues to stabilize.
Buying stocks after the various QE programs
were announced by the Federal Reserve was
generally a profitable decision for investors.
To answer the question about whether
the ECB programs will have the same
impact on European stock markets, we
point out some key differences between
the United States then and Europe now.
We continue to expect the Fed to again cut
its bond purchase program and remain on
pace to exit QE by year end.
However, odds have increased that the Fed
could change "something" at this week's
FOMC meeting, including omitting its
promise to keep rates low for a "considerable
time" or providing the public with an update
to its exit strategy.
We are continuing to watch...
The combination of additional cuts to overnight
borrowing rates and the announcement of the
ABS purchase program was slightly more than
expected from the ECB.
Bond markets sent growth signals in response
to ECB action in the form of higher yields, higher
inflation expectations, and a steeper yield curve.
We believe the "three Rs" are keys
to the outlook for the stock market:
revenues (and profits), reinvestment,
and the renaissance in manufacturing.
We expect stocks to garner support from
these three Rs in the form of continued
growth in revenues and profits, more
corporate reinvestment, and continued steady
gains for the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Over the past three Beige Books, the BBB
has averaged +100, the highest reading over
any three consecutive Beige Books since at
least 2005.
The latest Beige Book indicates to us that the
negative headwinds that have held the U.S.
economy back over the past seven years may
finally be abating.
Health care and the ACA have remained a
consistent source of concern among Beige
Book respondents, although the impact has
faded a bit recently.
Despite the recent barrage of bad news on...
Although the decline in US Treasury yields has
been significant in 2014, it is not quite at an
extreme when viewed historically.
However, the decline in European government
bond yields has reached an extreme.
Given the influence of European government
bond yields on U.S. yields, this week's ECB
meeting may determine the market's next move.
The market is not expecting the ECB to begin
QE this week, although other forms of policy
support are likely.
The data continue to suggest that more aggressive
monetary policy from the ECB would have only
a muted impact on the real economy unless the
fractured banking system can be repaired.
Policy divergences among the world's major
central banks are likely to intensify in late 2014
and beyond.
The resolution of election uncertainty — and
ending the predominantly negative rhetoric
surrounding the campaigns — has historically
been a positive for the stock market.
We continue to see opportunities for further
stock market gains over the course of 2014,
based upon fundamentals rather than the
potential for sweeping legislative change.
Historically, bond yields have begun to move
more forcefully four to six months ahead of a
first rate hike from the Fed.
We believe the rise in interest rates may begin
sooner this cycle due to lower yields and more
expensive valuations.
We favor capitalizing on year-to-date bond
strength and recommend a defensive posture
consisting of short to intermediate bonds.
The first rate hike by the Fed has never been
an indication of a market peak.
On average, the first rate hike has taken place
37% into the economic cycle (measured peak
to peak).
The S&P 500 has returned on average,
another 58% after the first rate hike (price
return) before the market peak for the
economic cycle.
The initial market reaction to a rate hike is, on
average, negative, but the data show it pays to
be invested.
Geopolitical risks powered bonds to another
weekly gain, but historically such gains have
been short-lived and given way to other
fundamental drivers.
Low volume summer trading may keep bond
yields pinned near year-to-date lows over the
near term.
We believe the LEI is one of the better
indicators to foreshadow recession.
The latest information from the LEI suggests
a positive backdrop for stocks and low risk
of recession.
Our fastest growing exports are not always as
visible as some of the items we consume and
import daily.
Most major service export categories have
experienced near 10% growth per year for the
past 10 years.
Good Old American Know-How is our most
abundant resource.
The strength of European government bonds
has supported demand for US Treasuries due
to more attractive yield differentials.
European influences may continue over the
near term, but we expect U.S. bond yields
to reconnect to domestic economic data in
coming months.
The United States has a trade surplus in
the service sector, where we are creating
relatively high-paying jobs.
Many U.S. service-related jobs require
advanced degrees and advanced skills, and
help to make possible our booming business
in service exports, much of it tied to Good
Old American Know-How.
Our competitive advantage in the service
sector should help to continue to drive
employment higher in this sector, especially
in areas that require advanced skills.
Volume has picked up during the recent downturn. No, we are not talking
about trading volumes; we are talking about the volume from your TVs with
talking heads warning about an impending stock market downturn. If you
turn off the TV and focus on what the market is telling you, rather than the
talking heads, you can tune out the noise.
Losing under 3% in a week seems a minor
concern given historical market ups and
downs; nevertheless, investors may begin
to wonder if stock market valuations are
signaling a decline.
Since the end of the last significant sell-off
for stocks, the market has been in a pretty
consistent upward trend.
Valuation is a poor market-timing
indicator; while valuation should always
be considered, it is a blunt tool that
should be taken into broader context.
With the release of the GDP figures for the
second quarter of 2014 (along with revisions
to the data back to 1999), the disconnect
appears to be fading.
The data released so far for the third quarter
suggest that the underlying economy had
decent momentum as the third quarter began.
The data continue to suggest that the U.S.
economy is poised to post growth in the
second half of 2014 above the long-term run
rate of the economy.
Futures continue to indicate the bond market
believes the Fed does not have an ace up its
sleeve and that ultimately they will not raise
rates as high as they project.
A host of top-tier economic data may influence
bonds more this week given the absence
of new forecasts and a press conference
following this week's Fed meeting.
Amid the barrage of nearly constant economic and market data, nothing is
more important to assess the health of corporate America than the quarterly
check-in that we affectionately call earnings season. As earnings season
approaches its halfway mark, it's a good time to take a look at what we've
learned so far.
Only nine times in over 14 years have the
FOMC meeting, GDP report, ISM report, and
the employment report — all often marketmoving
events — occurred in the same week.
Historically, these weeks have exhibited 20%
more volatility than an average week over this
time span, as measured by the S&P 500 Index.
This week is unlikely to be just another boring midsummer
week for financial market participants.
The latest edition of the Fed's Beige Book
indicates that the negative headwinds that
have held the U.S. economy back over the
past seven years may be declining.
The rebound in our Beige Book Barometer
over the past several months is consistent
with the Fed's view that the drop in economic
activity was mostly weather related.
Despite the recent barrage of bad news,
optimism on Main Street remains high...
If a tax holiday is enacted and the repatriated
funds by multinational corporations are used
to buy back shares or retire debt, it could
potentially act as a very potent market stimulus
equivalent to the height of the Fed's QE3.
We do not expect the municipal bond market
to repeat first half strength over the second
half of 2014.
A gradual rise in yields to compensate for
better growth, a modest rise in inflation, and
the start of Fed rate hikes in roughly one
year's time will likely pressure bond prices
slightly lower through year end.
We continue to believe the taxable bond
market is likely the main catalyst to the next
move in municipal bond prices.
A common worry among investors is that the
stock market may fall as the Fed gets closer
to hiking rates. In fact, the S&P 500 has
posted a gain in the 12 months ahead of the
first rate hikes over the past 35 years.
Global GDP growth in 2014 remains on track
to accelerate versus 2013's pace, excluding
the impact of the weather.
The pace of growth in the global economy
is a key driver of global earnings growth,
and ultimately, the performance of global
equity markets.
In our view, markets may already be looking
ahead to the second half of 2014, and
especially the third quarter, to gauge the true
underlying pace of global growth.
Much like the television comedy Seinfeld,
which celebrated its 25th anniversary this
past Saturday, July 5, 2014, the second
quarter earnings season is likely to be "a
show about nothing."
We continue to expect that U.S. economic
growth may rebound to a 3% pace for all of 2014.
The June 2014 jobs report was undeniably
strong on all fronts, standing in sharp contrast
to the weak performance of the economy in
the first quarter of 2014.
The last time the economy created at least
200,000 jobs per month for five consecutive
months was in late 1999 through early 2000,
when the U.S. economy was growing between
4.5% and 5.0%.
After broad based strength over the first half of
2014, we expect yields may rise in the second
half of 2014 as global growth strengthens and
inflation picks up from recent lows.
Higher valuations have increased the
challenges facing investors.
Similar to a farming
almanac, our Investor's Almanac is a publication containing a guide to
patterns, tendencies, and seasonal observations important to growing.
The goal of farming is not merely to grow crops, but to sustain living
things — investing shares the same goal.
Just as the World Cup has been heating up,
increasing the risk of player mistakes, the
world consumer price index (CPI) has also
been heating up, complicating the task for
policymakers at the world's central banks and
increasing the risk of mistakes that could have
market implications.
Despite the Fed labeling the recent inflation
increase as "noise," longer-term bond yields
rose, inflation expectations increased, and the
yield curve steepened — all signs of the bond
market pricing in inflation risks.
As the low inflation pillar of year-to-date bond
strength fades, it may be one more reason to
be cautious in the bond market.
The U.S. economy is poised to outperform
Germany in the years ahead thanks to better
demographics, better productivity, and a more
focused central bank.
Today the U.S. economy is in far better shape
than the German economy. Advantage U.S.A.
We believe bank loans could be one of the
more attractive fixed income asset classes
based on our economic and market outlook
for the second half of 2014 and believe recent
negative headlines are misplaced.
A still low interest rate environment, a
growing economy, and strong demand for
floating rate debt have all fueled growth in the
bank loan market.
Emerging market stocks have now pulled ahead
of the performance of the S&P 500 Index for
2014, which may finally mark the beginning of
the turn for EM relative performance.
We continue to expect the Fed to trim QE by
$10 billion per month this year and to remain
on pace to exit QE by the end of 2014.
Our view remains that the current center of
gravity at the FOMC will likely err on the side
of keeping rates lower for longer.
Markets should expect that the Fed will be
content with keeping its fed funds rate target
near zero until key labor market indicators
make significant progress toward "normal."
Strong economic data has weighed on bonds
to start June but favorable yield differentials
between Treasuries and European
government bonds have helped limit the
domestic bond weakness.
Divergent central bank policies may still mean
bonds yield to growth.
At the heart of it, all markets come down to
buyers and sellers. Taking a look at who is
buying and who is selling can tell us something
about the durability of the market's performance
and what may lie ahead.
The latest edition of the Fed's Beige Book
indicates that the negative headwinds that
have held the U.S. economy back over the
past five years may be declining.
The rebound in our Beige Book Barometer
is consistent with the Fed's view that the
contraction in economic activity was mostly
weather related.
We continue to expect...
Investor positioning and changed Federal
Reserve expectations had a particularly
beneficial impact on robust bond market
performance in May.
Unbalanced investor positioning may have run
its course, and investor expectations about the
Fed may be as good as it gets.
No debate here: Over the past five years,
modest declines in bond yields in the range of
0 – 50 basis points occurred along with modest
gains of 0 – 10% for stocks.
As markets brace for this week, we continue
to expect that the U.S. and global economies
may accelerate in 2014 relative to 2013's
growth rate.
We continue to expect that the FOMC will
taper QE by $10 billion per meeting, exit the
program by the end of 2014, and begin to raise
interest rates in late 2015.
Our view remains that...
Why — if the United States is producing more
oil and consuming less than it was a decade
ago — is the price of oil going up, and what does
it mean for investors?
We do not think the economic weakness in Q1
is the start of another recession, and, indeed,
we continue to expect real GDP will expand
3.0% in all of 2014.
We believe the conditions are in place for a
pickup in business spending, and we expect
the pace of business capital spending to
accelerate over the next several years.
Limited new issuance and Treasury market
strength have powered municipal bonds to
their best start since 2009.
In conjunction with lower yields and higher
valuations, near-term caution may be warranted
as the first signs of selling pressure emerge and
a challenging seasonal period looms.
Absent a new bout of economic weakness, we
see additional municipal price gains as limited.
We do not think the first quarter GDP report will
be a harbinger of a recession in the near future.
We continue to believe the U.S. economy will
accelerate in 2014 (relative to 2013), and that
GDP will increase 3.0% for the year.
The LEI indicates that the risk of recession in the
next 12 months is negligible at 4%, but not zero.
If Godzilla-sized quantitative easing aligns with a
fading impact from recent tax hikes, increasing
political support for corporate tax cuts, and
a push by government pension funds into
stocks, it may mean a blockbuster summer for
Japanese stocks.
The volatility we call "market storms" is likely to continue to be a
characteristic of markets this year, caused by well-known factors, such as:
geopolitical conflict in Russian border countries, slower economic growth
in China, or a weak start to the year for the U.S. economy, among others,
but also lesser-known factors like the Oklahoma earthquakes, solar flares
disrupting communications, and the Ebola outbreak...
While the dollar may gain ground in the coming
months and quarters as the economy accelerates,
we continue to believe the dollar will slowly
depreciate over time — continuing the trend that
has been in place since the early 1970s.
The weaker dollar has, at the margin, made our
exports more attractive, pushed up the costs of
goods we import, and, most importantly...
Earnings forecasts are being cut sharply
overseas, raising the questions of how much of
a value international developed market stocks
are and whether they can outperform the U.S.
market in 2014.
Key emerging market central banks have
raised rates within the past year in an effort
to combat inflation, the threat of inflation, or
current account imbalances.
Most developed market central banks are on
hold or easing.
The divergence among global central bank
policies creates both risks and opportunities for
global investors, and especially active managers
who invest globally.
There is no better time to take a fresh look at your investment strategies than the beginning of the new year. And while there is no one-size-fits-all approach to investing for the future, reviewing your goals annually can help you stay on track from month to month--and year to year.
As 2013 draws to a close, the last thing anyone wants to think about is taxes. But if you are looking for potential ways to minimize your tax bill, there's no better time for planning than before year-end. And, with the higher rates put in place with the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, being tax efficient is more important than ever.
Because you have worked hard to create a secure and comfortable lifestyle for your family and loved ones, you will want to ensure that you have a sound financial strategy that includes trust and estate planning. With some forethought, you may be able to minimize gift and estate taxes and preserve more of your assets for those you care about.
If you're like many Americans, you probably intend to rely on your employer-sponsored retirement plan savings for a significant portion of your retirement income. So when it comes time to make important decisions, such as what to do with the money in your plan when you change jobs or retire, you should be fully aware of your options...
If you're currently investing for your children's college education or are planning to do so in the near future, you may want to consider a state-sponsored prepaid tuition plan. Generally speaking, these plans, which are now available in many states, allow you to pay tomorrow's tuition bills at today's tuition rates. In addition...
As interest rates spiked in the second quarter of this year, many bond investors shifted gears from intermediate and long-term bonds to bonds with shorter maturities. The relationship between interest rates and bond prices is just one of many potential risks associated with bond investing. So why consider bonds?
The loss of critical personnel can be life threatening to small businesses; however, it's a risk that life insurance can often mitigate. In fact, life insurance policies are frequently used in plans aimed at making it possible for a business to survive a change of ownership or the loss of a partner, the chief executive or an employee whose creative talent, technical knowledge or salesmanship drives the business...
The continuously shifting investment climate, the sheer number of investment products to choose from and the emergence of employee-driven retirement savings plans, such as 401(k) plans, have all contributed to the increased need for qualified financial advice. No matter what your level of investment experience or sophistication, you may benefit from developing a relationship with a financial advisor...


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Your post-storm priorities
(Page 2 of 2)
10. Deliberate. When all this is done, step back and assess whether you'll ever need to have so many things again. Valuable papers can be scanned onto computer disks, old toys can be donated, handed down or sold. Clothing goes out of style. How much do you really need that pair of shoes or pants that will never fit again, no matter how many miles you put on your treadmill? I, too, have a hard time parting with old, reliable belongings, but we have to ask ourselves during a crisis, while fleeing with our emergency bag, did we ever really "need" all that stuff, or did it just make us feel better to have it? I see relief on clients' faces after they declutter before workers start renovating their homes.
I sincerely hope that we all managed, that we kept our health, our humor and our wits about us, and will be ready for the next perfect storm.
© 2012 Monte Leeper. Readers are encouraged to send questions to email@example.com, with "Herald question" in the subject line, or to Herald Homes, 2 Endo Blvd., Garden City, NY 11530, Attn: Monte Leeper, architect.
KeywordsAsk the Architect, Monte Leeper, hurricane
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Moscow, ID (Sports Network) - Joel Wright exploded for a career-high 37 points
as the Texas State Bobcats overcame a 17-point deficit to defeat the Idaho
Vandals, 78-73, in a Western Athletic Conference tilt at Cowan Spectrum.
Wright also added six rebounds, five assists, and five steals to lead the
Bobcats (6-14, 2-6 WAC) to their second win in a row. Phil Hawkins provided 16
points and Reid Koenen scored 10 points in the victory.
Kyle Barone paced Idaho (7-11, 3-5) by registering a monster double-double of
27 points and 16 boards. Stephen Madison scored 14 points and Mike McChristian
got into the mix with 13 points and eight rebounds. The loss was the fifth for
the Vandals in six games.
Idaho opened up the contest on a 6-0 run and managed to extend their edge on
the scoreboard to as many as 17, but Wright pushed the Bobcats on an 11-0 run
to cut into the lead. Texas State went into halftime trailing, 34-30, after
shooting 36.4 percent from the floor in the opening half. The Vandals hit 44.4
percent of their field goal tries in the first stanza.
The Bobcats heated up to knock down 59.3 percent from the field, including 5-
of-10 from beyond the arc after halftime. The visitors took their first lead
of the game when Vonn Jones passed to an open Hawkins for the trey with three
minutes remaining. Texas State then led by as many as six thanks to a stellar
offensive display in the second period.
The Vandals fell despite owning a 37-28 edge in the rebounding battle and
making 20-of-24 at the free throw line. Texas State committed a season-low
eight turnovers and Idaho was guilty of 18 miscues.
The Sports Network