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Stunning Outdoor Theater Highlights Florida Home
A screen view to rival the ocean view
The new owner of this luxurious 17,000 square-foot home in Naples FL wanted an audio/video system as impressive as his view of the Gulf of Mexico.
When CE Pro Gene Howarth of Seacoast Sound first toured the home, the home's owner had his mind set on some outdoor TVs around the hot tub and pergola. He also asked Howarth to come up with something big. The owner likes to have parties. A particularly special gathering for a local wine festival was coming up, and the owner wanted his guests to be blown away.
The first idea, explains Howarth, was for a huge unfolding C Seed TV designed by Porche Design Studios, but that was going to prove impractical in this situation. He then noticed that the spaces between the columns around the patio were about the right size for a projection screen. A local rep for Stewart Filmscreen mentioned Stewart's StarGlas material, and Howarth's mental gears began to turn. An architect's rendering of the project helped convince the homeowner that this would be the perfect solution. (Here's an indoor theater that uses Stewart StarGlas)
Eventually Howarth settled on an 80-inch, 16:9 piece of StarGlas for the screen medium and a Digital Projection Inc. HIGHlite Cine 1080p 660 3-chip DLP projector. The 1080p resolution projector uses two 330 watt lamps, making it more than bright enough for outdoor use. The StarGlas screen is a rigid surface, not like the fabric material used in most indoor home theaters. It's extremely resistant to weather and abrasion, which makes it great for outdoor systems. It doesn't need to be retracted into a soffit when not in use.
To make it all work, Howarth commissioned a large aluminum housing for both the projector and the screen. The housing is attached off the edge of the patio (the rear of the housing is out of sight). Inside is the DPI projector, the mirror which reflects the image onto the screen, cooling equipment and other electronics, plus room for two people to crouch inside and work. Howarth says it took six people and a mechanical lift to get the whole thing into place.
To blend the big aluminum box into the outside décor, Howarth used a material called Roman Rock and finished it to match the stone columns.
Audio for the deck is handled by a Crestron Sonnex Multiroom Audio System, which allowed Howarth to get music to 17 zones via CAT5 cable. Crestron outdoor speakers provide sound around the big StarGlas screen as well as for the covered cabana area, which includes a Samsung TV that rises on a lift from a marble counter, and a Sunbrite outdoor TV that rises on a lift by the outdoor hot tub.
Crestron is used to control everything inside the house and out. Mostly the homeowner uses iPads for the system interface—there are several placed around the residence—but a couple dedicated Crestron touchscreens are mounted indoors, and one waterproof Crestron remote is used outdoors near the hot tub.
While the homeowner prefers the outdoor AV experience on most days, sometimes it rains. For those moments the home also includes an indoor theater with a 100-inch retractable screen and another DPI projector, this one an M-Vision 400.
With a gorgeous view of the ocean, a cool breeze, and bright movie on the big screen, the patio has become the center of the house, or at least the center of attention. "They use it all the time," says Howarth. The installation team had it done in time for the wine party, and all the guests were impressed. Mission accomplished.
Want to learn more about outdoor AV? See these stories:
Planning Your Outdoor Audio/Video System
Outdoor TV Rising Out of Custom Cabinet on Roof
Backyard Bellagio Includes Lights, Music and Fountain
Backyard is Outdoor Electronics Showpiece
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AstroTortilla 0.4 - easy to install!
Posted 22 January 2013 - 07:31 PM
I thought you'd like to know that we've just released AstroTortilla 0.4 at http://astrotortilla.sf.net/
If you've heard about AT before, you might remember all the questions on how to get the whole complicated thing working with that Cygwin environment and having to beg for database files via email. Consider all those problems gone - the new installer does everything for you automatically. Also all the known bugs are gone too.
If you haven't heard of AT, here's a few points:
What you need: Computer control of
- An ASCOM mount
- A camera with MaximDL, Nebulosity, APT or almost any other software
What you get:
-GoTo accuracy within the arcsecond
-Blind, automatic GoTo calibration
-Automatic, fast polar alignment error measurement.
Feel free to try it out.
Lauri Kangas
and the rest of the AT team here in Finland
Edit: Added URL.
Posted 22 January 2013 - 09:05 PM
I do have maxim and pinpoint, but I also have APT and I wish to learn how to install it and run it with APT.
Thanks and Welcome to CN
Posted 24 January 2013 - 04:01 AM
Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:22 AM
Using all the indices might in some cases slow down the solution searching a bit. But it's relatively easy to have all index files elsewhere on disk and only keep those needed for a specific setup at the astrometry directory in Cygwin.
We'll try to put up a guide describing the steps to optimize for as fast solutions as possible. But first we have to figure them out..!
Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:58 PM
I noticed that the index files all start in the 4000 range. The ones that I had downloaded from astrometry were in the 200 range. Are there any difference between the two sets of downloads or are they duplicates with different names?
Posted 25 January 2013 - 09:37 AM
4000 series indices are generated from the 2MASS catalog and are licensed GPL ("free"). That's why we can distribute those along with the program.
They should work identically with 2XX corresponding to 40XX. If you already have those 200-series indices matching your setup, you don't have to get the new ones. Just make sure to place the 200-series files unpacked at /usr/share/astrometry/data in the cygwin hierarchy.
Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:36 AM
I have no experience whatsoever with Cygwin and am not even sure what it is.
Posted 25 January 2013 - 04:34 PM
From my experience, if you are only interested in using AstroTortilla, then you don't have to worry about knowing what goes on with Cygwin. It runs in the background. This new version of AstroTortilla installs everything for you. As for Cygwin, I only use it if I want to plate solve my images with the annotations. I should not mess up your computer. It will either solve the image or tell you that it could not solve the image. If it takes too long, I just force quit the application and everything continues to work fine. You do need to know some command lines to get it to work though. It runs in a Windows command prompt window. That's probably why they recommend that you know what you are doing. But like I said, it will either solve or not solve.
Posted 25 January 2013 - 04:44 PM
Thanks for that information. I ran a test with both versions of indices separately as well as together. I used an image of M42 @ 400mm f/5. I covers approximately 2x3 degrees.
Below is how long it took for AstroTortilla to solve it.
1: 200-series USNO Catalog = 42 seconds
2: 4000-series 2MASS Catalog (UNKNOWN. After 15 minutes, I stopped it.)
3: Both catalogs loaded together = 405 seconds
Posted 25 January 2013 - 06:47 PM
Is this updated version fairly straightforward to install and use? In another thread last year you (or one of development partners) had said that they would only recommend that experienced users and (presumably) those with previous Cygwin experience should use the AstroTortilla software.
Previously the installation was ridiculously hard. It was possible to do by precisely following instructions but the process involved manually compiling the astrometry.net inside the linux-like cygwin emulator via the command line with really frightening and complex commands etc. Even if you followed instructions, it was very easy to do something wrong if you had know idea what you were doing.
But as mentioned, that's something in the past. The new installer does everything for you automatically and actually you'll never even see Cygwin if you don't want to (for those of you who do, its command line is available just as before).
So if you use an ASCOM controlled mount and a supported camera capture software, go ahead and try it.
Ralph, I've seen reports of the 4000-series indices not working as well as the old ones elsewhere too. Let's se if we find out whether this happens alot.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:58 AM
That's basically all I want to do as my observatory scope loses its way occasionally. If I just need to type out one command statement at the command line prompt and then press my keyboard's Return key, then I should be able to handle that
Posted 26 January 2013 - 04:51 AM
Ralph, does it come with a list of the precise command line statement(s) that I must use to plate solve?
You don't need the command line to do anything. You can either connect Tortilla to a camera to make an exposure or load the latest exposure manually. The frame is then plate solved and it's coordinates, FOV and rotational angle are shown.
If you're connected to the telescope, you can add a sync point to where you're pointing. You can also make the scope slew back to the correct place you tried to slew to before you got lost.
If you for some reason DO want to use the command line, you can do that. Open up the Cygwin command line and enter "solve-field exposure.jpg". You don't need AstroTortilla for this, but getting Cygwin and solve-field (the astrometry.net command) to work is by far easiest to accomplish using the AsrtoTortilla installer (which by the way has the option to install only Cygwin and astrometry.net but not AstroTortilla itself).
The astrometry.net command line stuff however is not described in the user guide anymore since there's zero need for the command line in AsrtoTotrtilla itself.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 05:53 AM
Is this updated version fairly straightforward to install and use? In another thread last year you (or one of development partners) had said that they would only recommend that experienced users and (presumably) those with previous Cygwin experience should use the AstroTortilla software. That left me with less than complete confidence although I would absolutely love to use it if there is no chance whatsoever that it will mess up my computer system.
The current version handles all the system setup, you only need to provide four sets of input if the defaults are not suitable:
- Where to install AstroTortilla (default C:\program files\astrotortilla),
- where to install Cygwin (default c:\cygwin) and
- Where to put Cygwin package cache (default c:\temp\cygcache\, deleting it only slows down upgrades), and
- which index files to download (default is a rather wide-angle set). This is the only thing you need to figure out yourself.
Other than that, all you need to do is click Next. Optimizing the performance for your setup can be done in day light thru the AstroTortilla GUI: find the right combination for binning, downscaling, exposure time, and the mysterious --sigma N option and running a solve with the FileOpen camera selected. Use a few 2-5 second exposures as test material. Based on experience from a variety of users the fastest solve times seem to come when the log shows 200-300 stars detected from the exposure. I haven't tried the --objs N or --depth N yet to see if cutting the number after detection yields any improvements. Restricting the area of search to around 30 degrees of scope position also gains a significant improvement for scope syncing solves.
If you've downloaded the 200-series index files, you do not need the new ones.
If you use a single, fixed setup, you can set the "scale refinement" to 0.1 for a 10% margin for field size after the first blind solve. For multiple setups simply reset the scale related settings to large enough values, optimize the other parameters and save settings as a new file. Currently it still saves all settings, but you can open the saved config file e.g. into notepad and remove all the settings you don't want to change when loading the setup-specific file. I typically leave in only the exposure time, camera binning and all solver parameters, and when swithing to a different scope I simply load the pre-optimized settings leaving all the other AT parameters as they were.
When uninstalling, AstroTortilla removes itself and tells where you originally installed Cygwin, so you can delete it if it's not needed by any other software. AT uses one registry entry which is fully removed by the uninstall, Cygwin only uses disk space only with no changes to the computer setup. The user specific AT config file is left your application settings directory under astrotortilla.sf.net/AstroTortilla/ and it takes about 1-2kB. I don't want to mess up my computer and as creating a new release package means running the install-uninstall cycle several times to verify all the combinations, I do take care on what's done and where.
I have no experience whatsoever with Cygwin and am not even sure what it is.
As for Cygwin, it has a good write-up in Wikipedia. In short it's an environment for POSIX (i.e. Unix and Linux) software to be compiled against in order to run on Windows. The plate-solver by astrometry.net uses several traditional Unix utilities and is written for the POSIX APIs, so the easiest way to make it run on Windows is to use the Cygwin environment.
If you don't want know anything else about Cygwin, there's no need to. It's prone to breaking when upgrading or adding new features, but we take care of running the recovery commands automatically when upgraded/installed/updated/refreshed thru the AT installer.
Ralph, does it come with a list of the precise command line statement(s) that I must use to plate solve?
That's basically all I want to do as my observatory scope loses its way occasionally. If I just need to type out one command statement at the command line prompt and then press my keyboard's Return key, then I should be able to handle that
AT doesn't have a command line interface for the time being, only a simple point-and-click interface. As soon as the current version reaches sufficient maturity, I'll start writing the AT2 with a better overall architecture enabling a couple of features I'm desperately missing in the current one, which are difficult to fit in the current codebase. As for schedule, this is a free, fully open-source hobby project helping another hobby a bit, so no promises.
Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:32 AM
Posted 26 January 2013 - 03:50 PM
Can it work on Windows Vista? Also, where can I download the 200-series index files? I only readily saw access to the 4000-series files on the AstroTortilla website.
It has been tested on Xp and Win7, so I don't see a reason it wouldn't work on Vista. The 200-series indexes are still covered by the same restrictions and access instructions as before, the 2MASS based 4000-series indexes are GPL licenced. They are also more accurate than the 200-series indexes based on USNO-B and they contain at least as many star-quads as the USNO-B based indexes down to the same minimum star-quad features of 2 arcminutes.
Posted 28 January 2013 - 11:32 AM
I am not sure if I am doing something wrong or what. I wonder if using the 200-series index files would work better. I mean, were most people getting good solves quickly with those indexes in place? Alternatively, I wonder if you can suggest some other parameters that I can insert into the program?
Thanks for any help you can give! I love to use the astrometry.net online and have had good results with it most of the time. But I do not always have an internet connection available and would love to be able to use it offline.
Posted 28 January 2013 - 01:16 PM
Try setting Sigma to 100, that is what I find works best...
It would help to understand what problem you are having if you would tell us what your computer is, CPU, amount of RAM, and operating system. Also what the FOV and focal length of your telescope.
Posted 28 January 2013 - 08:24 PM
A handful of seconds after it starts trying to do a plate solve, at the bottom of the screen it says "Field 1 did not solve (index index-4000-07.fits, field objects 1-10)" and then keeps sifting through the various index files to no avail.
For testing purposes, I am only using picture files that were already able to be solved by the astrometry.net online site.
My computer system is fairly decent:
Vista Home 32-bit, Intel duo core 2.4gz, 3gig RAM
I am using a SBIG 2000xcm with pixel size 7.4 x 7.4 microns
FOV 28.3 x 21.2 arcmin (per Astrometry.net online plate solve)
2.22 arcsec/pixel
1422mm Focal length from my Meade LX200 10" Classic, native focal length 2540 (@f10) x .56 focal reducer in place.
Any help you can give me would be appreciated
Posted 28 January 2013 - 09:21 PM
What do you have Scale Miunimum and Scale Maximum set to
As I use two different telescopes, I set Scale Min to .2 (0.2) and scale maximum to 2 which is a range both my telescopes FOV fit within...
What range of indexes do you have installed?
What format and size are the image files you are using?
Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:13 AM
The scale_high was set to 179 and I changed it to 2 as you suggested.
I then tried it out again but it did not solve after 25 minutes so I stopped it. I still see the message "Field 1 did not solve.." and then it starts to thumb through the index files.
The pictures I am trying to solve with are JPEG files that are 295x345 in dimension and 28kb in size. FOV = 28.3 x 21.2 arcmin. They are screenshots of the 10 seconds focusing shots my camera was displaying on the computer screen. Each of the pictures was successfully solved by the online version of the Astrometry.net plate-solver.
I downloaded the indexes beginning with the ones that were 20% of the size of my camera's FOV and all other index files on up to 30 arcmins. Altogether it was something like 3.39gigs of index file data.
Thanks for hanging in there with me
Posted 29 January 2013 - 11:19 AM
What I am most concerned with is what the low numbered range you have is, mainly 4006 and below... I would move any index files above 4006 to a storage directory so AT does not see them when it is resolving...
About the "Field 1 did not solve,field objects 1-10" message, you will always get this, it means only that a resolve was not found in that index on the first pass. AT will make a number of passes through the indexes looking for a best fit and having indexes not needed for the FOV of your camera and telescope combination only slows the search for best fit down...
What I am most suspicious about, is the image size and format you are trying to resolve. I resolve JPG images approximately 2400 x 1500 pixels in size, and using a computer with an i3 2.6 Ghz CPU and Windows 7 Pro 64bit operationg system, a plate solve takes about 7 seconds to as long as 45 seconds on tough ones typically...
The key difference I see here from what you describe is the images and how you are getting them that you are attempting to solve... What I have heard from others although I have not run into it myself, is that AT is fussy about the image quality. Often images not directly from the camera will not resolve...
Therefore my suggestion would be to take imaged directly as downloaded from your camera, do a simple file type conversion to JPG without altering size or any other parameter, and see if they resolve...
I'm suspicious the reduced image size you are attempting to solve simply does not hold adequate resolution of data in JPG format at the reduced size... This seems to be the most significant difference between what I am resolving and what you are attempting to resolve...
Posted 29 January 2013 - 11:51 PM
I am now converting directly from the raw camera files to JPEG and trying that out. My .jpeg frames are now a larger 1200x1600. The next time I will try to take them with an even higher resolution if you think that would help. I have the SBIG set to "Auto" image quality, but the next time I can set it to "High".
The Astrotortilla program occasionally freezes up on me and says "Not responding", but if I leave it alone for awhile and don't click on it with my mouse then it often works out the kink on its own and then continues sorting through the index files where it last left off.
It solved my first file in 7 minutes which was a picture of ngc2903 saved as a 2.2mg 1200x1600 jpeg file.
It was not able to solve the second photo of ngc891 which was a 1.89mg 1200x1600 Tiff file. I resaved the same file as a jpeg and it also was not able to solve it.
It then solved the Pleiades in just 46 seconds. I used the original 30sec exposure FITS file for solving.
I then stuck with FITS files for it seemed to love them. It solved the next 3 FITS pictures as follows: M95 in 27 seconds, M66 in 6 minutes 20 seconds, Flame Nebula in 14.2 seconds.
That's great and meets my needs exactly! I have learned how to freeze the time in Starry Night Pro, then set it back to the original time I took the FITS photo (as revealed in the FITS header), then click on "Edit" and then "Center On" and then enter the plate-solved coordinates, then Sync the telescope's gaze to the center of the screen (e.g. the plate-solved coordinates), and then change the time in Starry Night Pro back to the current/present time. I imagine this could be done with any telescope control program. In this way, I do not need to rush whatsoever in receiving the plate-solve results back from Astrometry.net or from the AstroTortilla program.
Thank you all for this excellent program
Posted 30 January 2013 - 12:18 AM
As to index file 4001, the way to determine if this is necessary is to use the log view in "Tools" and keep a record of which indexes that resolves are completed with. If you see 4002 being used predominantly, then yes, having 4001 might allow AT to resolve the few that it is failing to resolve...
Unfortunately I know of no method of telling what indexes are necessary for a given FOV, all I know is that lower index numbers, i.e. 4002 resolves smaller FOV vs a higher number as 4007 being used for a larger FOV.
I have seen a post on a different forum where someone came up with a formula for relating FOV to Indexes however I do not have that information nor do I know how accurate it is... I think the best approach is to keep a record of what indexes are used the most with your images and as I suggested before, move the unused indexes to a storage folder/directory so they are not being scanned needlessly wasting time. And if you see the lowest numbered index being used often, then, yes, I would think adding the 4001 index is worth a try...
Glad to hear you are making progress...
Posted 30 January 2013 - 12:52 AM
Unfortunately I know of no method of telling what indexes are necessary for a given FOV, all I know is that lower index numbers, i.e. 4002 resolves smaller FOV vs a higher number as 4007 being used for a larger FOV.
If you go back to the AstroTortilla installation file, and select to install only the Index Files, you are allowed to choose the FOV range in arcminutes that you want to install. Don't go through with reinstalling the files. Just take note on which Index Files Correspond to which FOV.
Posted 30 January 2013 - 01:43 AM
Unfortunately I know of no method of telling what indexes are necessary for a given FOV, all I know is that lower index numbers, i.e. 4002 resolves smaller FOV vs a higher number as 4007 being used for a larger FOV.
If you go back to the AstroTortilla installation file, and select to install only the Index Files, you are allowed to choose the FOV range in arcminutes that you want to install. Don't go through with reinstalling the files. Just take note on which Index Files Correspond to which FOV.
You must have a different version than what I am using, I do not get any listing of files as you describe...
Any chance you could supply a screen shot in JPG mode of what you are suggesting?

subset: commoncrawl


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Panel Gapping Project Purple Pig - Mind The GapWritten by on July 1, 2011 Before Bodywork Comes Panel Gapping
One of the seemingly little details that separates a really great-looking car from an average one is good panel fit, with uniform gaps between every panel. It's a job that takes an inordinate amount of time and should be undertaken before any body or paintwork is tackled, as there'll undoubtedly be some cutting and welding involved. This is especially true with an older car that isn't using all its original panels. Modern cars will invariably have panel gaps of 1/8 to 3/16 inch, while those on cars such as our project '49 Chevy will often be a little wider, at 3/16 to 1/4 inch.
If you want to bring those gaps up to modern specs, be prepared to add material to the edges of doors, fenders, and hoods, usually by welding lengths of welding rod or fabricated sheetmetal strips to the edges. We didn't want to go that far, but did want uniform gaps throughout the vehicle. As we'd replaced the doors and hood on the '49, we had to start our panel alignment from scratch, and there's a definite order in which this has to be done, and I always start with aligning that gapwhich isn't adjustable.
On a car like our '49, that non-adjustable gap is between the hood and cowl, meaning the first panel to be installed should be the hood. On a vehicle that has a removable cowl panel between the hood and windshield, the procedure is different. In that instance we'd usually start by installing the doors and working forward to align the fenders and hood.
So, on the '49, the hood went on first, and then was aligned on the hinges to be central, as well as vertically and front-to-rear to align with the cowl. We sourced a complete set of rubber components from Chevs of the 40's to replace the worn-out originals, including the cowl seals and all the small rubber bumpers that help align the hood to the cowl and fenders. While the panels can be aligned without these, using them at this stage ensures everything will line up during final assembly after paint. You don't want to be making adjustments at that stage!
Our front fenders, inner fenders, and radiator core support have been bolted together as a single unit since we replaced the driver side inner, repaired the other, and painted them. This assembly was installed next, without all the under-fender stone guards at this stage, as it made access to the door hinge bolts easier. On the Chevy, the fenders bolt to the cowl at the upper rear corner, bolt to brackets coming off the chassis at the lower rear, and the radiator core support bolts to a crossmember at the front of the chassis. Spacers between this crossmember and the core support provide vertical adjustment, which in turn aligns the panel gaps between the fenders and doors.
With the fenders aligned to provide even gaps along both sides of the hood, once again aided by the small rubber bumpers along each side of the ladder, it was time to hang the doors. By adjusting the door hinges, front-to-rear and in-and-out alignment was possible, until we were happy with the door-to-fender and door-to-rocker panel gaps. What wasn't so great was the door-to-rear quarter gap. There simply wasn't one. The door shut OK, but we didn't even have a 1/32-inch gap!
Whether this was caused by the discrepancies between sizes of the replacement panels we'd fitted and the originals, we're not sure, but this is exactly why panel alignment should be started at the cowl. If we'd fitted the doors first, then the fenders, we'd have had a 1/2-inch gap between the cowl and hood. Sure, we could have added material to the rear of the hood, but then the inner fenders, and likely the outer fenders wouldn't have aligned with their mounting holes. We had two options to solve the door gap issue: grind the rear edge off the doorskin and inner frame and re-weld it, or cut the quarter-panel and move the door shut rearward. We elected for the latter, as it offered less opportunity for panel warpage and an easier repair.
Aligning all the panels on any project is a time-consuming process, but take your time and you'll be rewarded with a sharp-looking car in the end. Bear in mind two things: it's only metal and can be cut and moved around to fit perfectly (unless it's 'glass!) and never be tempted to use body filler to close up a gap. Plastic filler will crack or even fall out eventually. Get everything perfectly gapped before applying filler!
More Photos From This Article View Slideshow
Once we'd bolted the hood in place, the hinges themselves had to be moved down and rearward to acquire an even gap between the hood and cowl. Ensure the hood is also central on the car when you do this.With a consistent gap across the cowl, we moved to the fenders. If you really want all gaps perfectly equal, use a paint mixing stick or similar to place in the gaps during adjustment. We used a steel ruler to measure them.This rubber kit contains all the hood bumpers for the sides of the hood, the rear corners, and the front, on top of the grille. Using these now will save a lot of frustration later as the fit you get at this stage will be the same once everything is assembled for the last time.The rear corners of the Chevy hood slide down and over these bumpers just in front of the doors on the cowl when the hood is closed, and prevent lateral movement. Note how the originals are excessively worn.These stops push in place along the hood sides, and locate it snuggly between the fenders, again ensuring no sideways movement as well as keeping everything rattle-free.While most cars don't use rubber stops along the hood sides, on the Chevy they rest on these raised sections on the fender return lip.Protecting paint may or may not be an issue, but a couple of towels placed on the cowl corners are helpful when installing the hood if you're alone. Though Project Purple Pig currently resides in our Tech Center, I usually work on it late at night when no help is around, just like most people at home!With the hood in place, the fenders are next. Note this one needs to come up to align with the hood, and the door obviously needs to come out too.
The fenders on the '49 bolt to the cowl at their upper rear corners, and required a couple of shims to attain the correct gap against the hood sides. Shown are two different types of shims.These Chevys use a bar across the top of the radiator core support to maintain the correct distance between the fenders, and it actually has the wiring harness running through it on stock applications. It won't fit with our new radiator, but we used it during the alignment process and will fabricate a suitable one in due course.The consistent gap between the hood and passenger fender matched that at the cowl, once the core support brace had been fitted, and the shims added at the top rear fender mount.The captive nuts inside the door are often awkward to get the bolt started in. A screwdriver passed through the hinge helps with alignment. The door can be adjusted in and out to align with the fenders using these bolts.The door hinges bolt to the inside of the A-pillar using these three bolts. They're accessible without the stone guards in place, but photograph more easily with the fender pulled away from the body. The door can be adjusted fore and aft here.19 Compare this to caption 11 and you'll see the door aligns much better now that it's been adjusted out from the body as well as forward. The fender still needs to come up though.Here are all the door, fender, and hood gaps aligned at just a shade under 1/4 inch. The discrepancy (arrow) on the rear of the fender will require a little material added to its rear edge.
Both fenders should be gapped before moving to the doors, but here's what we found on the driver side. We should have suspected something would be amiss when we discovered the '49 had taken a hard whack on this corner sometime in its life, which is the reason we replaced the crumpled inner fender on this side. The fender is sorely out of shape, and seeing as it's got some serious rust below the headlight and the rear return has been pie-cut and welded several times to align with the filler-laden original door, we'll simply replace it when one becomes available. Anyone know of a good one locally?The door-to-rocker and fender-to-rocker gaps all look good too. Incidentally, those are MkI Ford Fiesta rockers, with one-and-a-half used on each side of the car!Simply put, we moved the A-post rearward, and if it'd had to go further than the 3/16 inch we needed it to, we'd have cut the whole lower section out to make moving it easier. We got away with hammering the edge rearward using a block of wood.We used some scrap steel and aluminum to maintain a constant gap of 7/32 inch while we tack-welded the quarter-panel back together.
The end result: a perfectly gapped door that opens and closes with ease. Now it aligns with the front and rear fenders and it'll make the body prep stage easier. There's nothing worse than opening a door to see the edge is 1/4-inch thick with body filler as it wasn't properly aligned in the first place.Voíla! The door, fender, and hood are all gapped. Now to replace that driver side fender and repeat the process on that side. Onward …


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1962 Chevy Impala Shocks and Sway Bars - The End Of Rock And RollWritten by Gerry Burger on February 1, 2012 Contributors: Steven Rupp A set of high-performance shocks and sway bars improve the big Impala's manners
OK, let's be real here. A '62 Chevrolet Impala is not exactly a prime candidate for a great-handling car. After all, these things rolled off the production line weighing in at 3,455 pounds, are right at 17-1/2 feet long, and stand almost 16 inches taller than a GT-40. And they are suspended on all four corners with nice soft coil springs attached to an X-frame that is, well, less than rigid. It's not exactly a combination that begs to go road racing, but then some people's definition of hot rodding is making a car do things it was never intended to do.
Of course we're not building a car to go racing, rather we're looking to improve the street handling and performance enough to participate in the autocross events that have become so popular at Goodguys Rod and Custom shows. These timed events are a barrel of fun and will test both the car and the driver. To that end we contacted some industry experts and installed suspension upgrades that made a marked improvement in the handling of this '62 full-size Chevrolet. The components are not exotic by any means, both front and rear sway bars are of the non-adjustable variety and since the car rides on stock coil springs there is no means to corner balance or even establish accurate ride height on all four corners. It's a street car that needs help handling, and that is exactly what it received.
When it came time to improve our Impala's manners we opted for a matched component suspension upgrade from Chris Alston's Chassisworks. His G-street kit supplies shocks and antiroll bars matched to our Impala. The installation is straight forward and something almost any shade tree mechanic should be able to handle.
Our first upgrade involved installing a set of VariShock double-adjustable shock absorbers. These high-quality shock absorbers allow us to adjust the rebound (extension) and compression (bump) of the shocks. These adjustments will go a long way to stabilizing the suspension. Curing excessive dive under braking is done with a combination of stiffer front compression and stiffer rear rebound. Tuning shocks will go a long way to improve braking and handling since the weight is now distributed more evenly on all four tires. Installation was nearly a bolt-on affair with the aluminum body shocks replacing the somewhat tired "NAPA's Best" shock. The only real modification to the car was a small notch in the lower control arm to make room for the adjuster knobs. Once again urethane bushings are used to minimize unwanted movement in the shock mounts. Remember, when installing stud-style shocks the upper nut should contact the bushing snugly, but not compress the bushing. With the front VariShocks installed we moved to the rear where the shocks were a true bolt-on affair. The difference was remarkable and the great thing about the VariShock is the double adjustment is easy to access. Two adjuster knobs on the bottom of the shock provide adjustment for both the compression and rebound. It couldn't be easier, with one knob for bump the other for rebound you simply slide under the car, give the knobs a couple clicks, and your adjustments are complete.
Next up was the installation of some fairly stout antiroll bars to limit the amazing amount of body roll the car demonstrated in stock form. The front sway bar is installed in a conventional antiroll bar arrangement. After removing the factory antiroll bar (often referred to as sway bars), links, and brackets we were ready to install the new Chris Alston sway bar. The bar mounts to the chassis and then each end connects to the lower control arm via two drop links. The links are non-adjustable so there is no way to vary the amount of "bar" stiffness, but the beefy 7/8-inch diameter and urethane bushings are designed just for our application. The Chris Alston bar proved to be very effective in cutting down on dreaded body roll.
The rear sway bar is a bit more unique to the X-frame Chevrolet. Rather than the traditional chassis mount and links, the bar is bolted directly to each trailing arm. The preferred method is to mark the location of the sway bar attaching bolts and then remove the trailing arms and drill the two holes in a drill press. However the holes can also be drilled in place, but we recommend you use a drill with a level sight built in to be certain the holes are square to the trailing arm. Once again there is no adjustment on the rear bar, but the two bars were engineered to work well together. Two bolts and spacer tubes per side complete the installation, and in the process complete our suspension upgrades on the '62.
After the modifications were completed, the old '62 was run through the autocross and long slalom. Eliminating all body roll from an X-frame Chevrolet may not be within the realm of mortal men, but the VariShocks and Chris Alston sway bars worked in concert to keep the Impala noticeably flatter and our times through the course reflected just that. No doubt the car would benefit from a set of stiffer springs too. But here's the lesson, you don't have to go to exotic adjustable sway bars or even coilover shocks to improve handling, you can make a big difference with well-chosen bolt-on items.
By changing just the shocks and adding sway bars the handling characteristics of the big sedan was greatly improved. As we mentioned, this helped with the autocross times, but improved vehicle dynamics will also make this car safer to drive on the street, not to mention more fun. Let's take a step-by-step look at just how easy it is to take your full-size early '60s GM car from a rock and roll cruiser to a more modern handling automobile.
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With the bolts removed the old NAPA shock absorber simply slides out of the bottom of the lower control arm.Next we removed the two nuts holding the sway bar bushing to the frame. You may have to wedge a screwdriver inside the framerail to stop the nut from spinning.The new sway bar is slipped into place, basically the old "installation is the reverse of removal" holds true for this kit.Special assembly lube is supplied with the kit to help the urethane bushing slide over the new sway bar, a thin coating is all that is needed. Grease stops annoying squeaks and snaps caused by dry urethane bushings.The bushing is opened and snapped around the sway bar. Keeping the grease inside the bushings and off your hands will make this operation easier.Push the supplied Allen cap bolts up through the billet block and into the framerail. The bolts are long enough to make catching the nut on top easy.After tightening the billet block bolts, we installed the grease fitting in the block. The bushing has a hole drilled that aligns with the grease fitting to ensure it gets inside the bushing.
Regardless of the bushing material you should never tighten a bushing to the point of crushing or distorting the bushing. This is an example of an over-tightened bushing.If your '58-64 Chevy does not have the factory sway bar brackets on the lower control arm you will have to buy or fabricate a bracket like this that bolts or welds to the control arm.One look at this side-by-side comparison made a believer out of us. The VariShock is an aluminum body, double-adjustable shock that will greatly enhance the handling of our Chevy.After filing the rough edges of the new notches, we slipped the VariShock up inside the coil spring, pushing the top stud through the upper hole in the process.The top shock stud was tightened down until the bushing was in firm, full contact with the upper mount.The lower bolts were tightened and the shock installation was complete. After doing the other side, the front suspension modifications were complete.
And here is the completed front suspension with the G-street suspension upgrade kit installed on our '62 Chevy. The components look right at home on the chassis.We measured back 12 inches from the center of the front control arm bolt and made a mark. This would be the location for the front of the sway bar arm. Mark both trailing arms exactly the same.With both trailing arms marked we carefully clamped the sway bar to both bars and marked the hole locations. Note the small piece of rag under the clamp to protect the hammer finish.We were only half done with the project, now it's time to mount the rear antiroll bar. This would prove to be a simple modification.We carefully outlined the oval holes in the sway bars onto the trailing arms. Make certain the sway bar is centered on the trailing arm top to bottom.After the holes have been drilled in the trailing arms insert the supplied sleeves into the bottom of the control arms. Due to variation in control arms you may have to file or face grind these sleeves to fit.Strike a punch in the center of each oval opening, this will provide fore and aft adjustment on the bar should it be needed after installation.
After carefully setting the trailing arm up in a drill press we drilled two perfectly vertical holes through both sides of the trailing arms.The rear VariShocks are truly simple bolt-in replacements. Note how easy it is to adjust rebound and extension on the double-adjustable shocks. Simply crawl under and add a few clicks to the adjuster knobs.It is possible to drill the trailing arms in place as seen here, but take special care to drill the holes at a true 90-degree angle to the face of the trailing arm.And here's the finished rear suspension with the Chris Alston upgrade. Again, this is not a full-on race car suspension, rather it is a dramatic street and autocross suspension upgrade that makes a huge difference in the car's handling.


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|Around Town
|Written by Holyoke Enterprise
Enterprise sets early deadline for Monday
Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, an early deadline for the Nov. 22 edition of The Holyoke Enterprise has been set for Monday, Nov. 19 at 10 a.m. All news and advertising material must be received by that time.
School to break for holiday
Students in Re-1J School District will get a break from classes Wednesday-Friday, Nov. 21-23 for Thanksgiving. Classes resume Monday, Nov. 26.
HVFD called three times
Holyoke Volunteer Fire Department was called to 116 N. Interocean Ave. Wednesday, Nov. 7 at 5:30 p.m. The owner of the establishment noticed an odor and called 911, according to fire chief Phillip Wirges. The building was evacuated while firemen searched for the problem. It was determined a neighboring business had been applying polyurethane varnish to some furniture. Once verified, firemen allowed the business to operate as usual.
Thursday, Nov. 8 at 2:10 p.m. HVFD was called to a fire alarm at Regent Park/Carriage House. After a search, no fire was found.
Monday, Nov. 12, HVFD was called to a one-vehicle rollover accident five miles south of Holyoke on Highway 385 at 4:37 p.m. Extrication was needed.
Holyoke Enterprise November 15, 2012


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February 19, 2013 | 823 views
Sewanhaka advances with big effort
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The old adage at tournament time is "survive and advance." That's exactly what the Sewanhaka Lady Indians did in the opening round of the Nassau County Class A girls' basketball playoffs last Saturday afternoon.
Senior guard Shantell McCall scored 28 points and pulled down 10 rebounds, and freshman Daniella Weinschreider added a career-high 22 points as No. 7 Sewanhaka knocked off No. 10 Jericho, 71-61. Senior Amanda Levenberg led Jericho with 17 points. The Lady Indians advanced to the second round where they were to meet No. 2 Wantagh on Wednesday evening after presstime.
With Jenny Pechacek, Katlyn Dempsey, and others providing strong minutes off the bench, Sewanhaka's depth played a big part in the win. "One thing I told the girls after the game was that this was a family win," Sewanhaka head coach Alex Soupios said. "Some played a lot and some played a little, but everybody played and everybody contributed to this win."
The visiting Lady Jayhawks made it clear right from the get-go Sewanhaka would be in for a fight. An 8-2 Jericho run to close out the opening quarter gave the Lady Jayhawks a 16-14 lead. McCall had nine points in the first quarter.
The Lady Indians scored the first eight points of the second quarter, but each time they appeared set to pull away, Jericho would bury a long three or get on a run. The half ended on a tremendous drive to the basket by point guard Daniella Ford, who gave Sewanhaka a 36-30 lead at the break.
Ford's basket would serve as a harbinger. The sophomore point guard was sensational in the second half. While McCall was lighting it by slashing to the basket and finishing, and Weinschreider, who hit five three-point baskets, was on fire from the perimeter, Ford was running the offense, putting teammates in position to score, and was the first to get on the floor after loose balls.
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KeywordsSewanhaka, Lady Indians, basketball, Nassau, Class A
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text: 1942 compact requires upstream releases. Water, water everywhere, but not in the Bonny blue anymore. The state of Colorado has begun to drain the Bonny Reservoir in eastern Colorado and allow the water to flow into the Republican River. A 1942 agreement, the Republican River Compact with Nebraska and Kansas requires minimal water flows to the downstream states. Colorado has not been allowing the full amount of water in the past years, with drought conditions and other claims on water. So, in order to meet its water obligations, the gates of the reservoir have been opened, allowing the water to run naturally along the Republican River to Nebraska and Kansas Aquatic biologists are working hard to move thousands of fish in the reservoir to new locations, but it is a difficult task. Many small businesses, bait shops, and food stores will likely go out of business when the reservoir is fully drained. The anglers will not come and the businesses will not have any customers. The water debt owed by Colorado to Kansas and Nebraska is now being paid with stored water in the reservoir, and has been brought to light as experts in Kansas and Nebraska have been able to more accurately monitor water flows from state to states.


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Metallica will mingle with comic book enthusiasts and fantasy fans at this year's Comic-Con gathering in California.
All four members of the heavy metal band – James Hetfield, Lars Ulrich, Kirk Hammett and Robert Trujillo – will appear at the San Diego event on July 19, when they will introduce their new feature film, Metallica: Through the Never, alongside writer-director Nimrod Antal.
Devotees will then have the chance to win tickets to see Metallica perform at a mystery venue later on that evening.
Metallica: Through the Never, which hits U.S. theatres later this year, incorporates 3D concert footage with a plotline featuring actor Dane DeHaan as a young roadie for the group.
Comic-Con 2013 will be held from July 17-21.


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May 25, 2016
By: Mike Springer
February 9, 2013
Havana, FL-Havana merchants got a chance to showcase their goods Saturday.
Dozens of merchants along downtown Havana participated in the City's annual sidewalk sale.
The sale is a two day event where merchants display some of their products at a discounted price in order to entice more people into their shops.
Business owners we spoke with say they've seen a boost in the turnout from this year compared to last.
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Hughes estimates about 500 people went through his store today. The sale continues Sunday afternoon
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junebaby's blog
I hate waiting for things. I am not a very patience person at times. When I order something, I want it asap. When I diet I want results like yesterday, lol. But who doesnt. I order the 7th & 8th Season of CSI Las Vegas last night and I have to wait til the middle of next week to get it. What is up w/ that, lol! But it will totally be worth it. The first 6 Seasons were.
I am not sure if any of you have read or heard about a Train accident that killed 3 girls. I didnt hear anything about it til Sunday and my heart sank. What a loss that must be for the family and friends of those girls. I have talked about this incident w/ my son and voiced (again) my concern as a mom about his wherabouts. I know that as parents we cant lock our kids up just to keep them safe,...
Have you ever felt like you are running up an icy hill with roller skates on wearing 50lb ankle weights???? (Now that u have a wonderful mental image) That is how I feel everyday. That I am always in an uphill race w/ everything against me. I set really high goals for myself cause I am never going to achieve them so what is the point in failing, right?! I am no different from anyone...
I had a not so good week last week, so I was kinda lookin forward to going back to work and getting back on schedule. Everything seemed kewl until after lunch. When I got back, a customers wife came in and said that it was her son that was murdered last week, WTF!!!!!!!!!!! It was most likely (it hasnt been officially released) a drug deal gone bad. But still, he was 27. I am not saying that he...
I know that ALL teenagers try things, get into stuff, and r disrespectful. That is not what is shocking to me. What is shocking to me is that My brother dropped off a drug test for my son!!!!!!!!!!! But what really made me laugh is that my Nephew (his son) was caught (CAUGHT) doing things!!!!! And of course my son is being blamed. I know better, especially when it all came from my Nephew...
I got up around 10am w/ a Migraine headache from HELL, then my allergies kicked in, I got the chills, and the Icing on the Cake is that my laptop wont run Windows Vista!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I HATE Vista!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can re-install it, but I will lose ALL my information. I might be able to save it if my friend can help, but he is in Virginia (I live in Florida). I am going to try and get in touch...
So on Fuse there is 19 days left to vote!!!!!! There r prolly a tune on Fuckhead Spears vote, But we Need Papa Roach to win. Rock conquors all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (spelling errors I am sure, lol)
Now is the time to get together and vote for P Roach. I will b really sadden to c a Fuckhead like Spears beat P Roach. It is Rock verses Pop!!!!!!! Lets get out there and vote like peeps have for the other bands. It is the Final Round!!!!!!!
We r doing a float in a christmas parade in a few weeks. So we have been painting and more during work, lol!!!!! It is really awesome cause we r getting paid for this. I did make a Papa Roach ornament. I need to crop the pic so that I can post pix!! hahahhaa
My brother went in today for a test that was a cancer sreening and it came back NEGATIVE!!!!!!! I am sooooo relieved (cant spell, lol) that it is not cancer. His doctor (who is a butthead) told him that it was advanced colon cancer and he had about a year to live, based on his symptoms. I am so glad that that guy is wrong! But I am so glad he is going to b alright!!!!!! Thanx for all the...


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When you think of anti-aging skin care, your mind likely jumps immediately to battling the formation of fine lines and wrinkles on your face, but the decreased levels of collagen that occur as you age can have a profound impact on other parts of your body as well. Since your hands are constantly exposed to the open air, the skin there is incredibly vulnerable to oxidative damage from free radicals in the environment. Over time, the skin on the hands becomes lined and wrinkled and can even develop regions of hyperpigmentation or discoloration due to the effects of aging. The Goldfaden Hand Creams collection was developed specifically to reduce the symptoms associated with aging process and the appearance of signs of aging on the skin of the hands.
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Service opportunity – Be a part of the Green Team in 2011!
Here's an opportunity to watch baseball and volunteer at the same time! The Royals are looking for service organizations that are interested in being a part of the Royals Green Team presented by Allied Waste. The Royals Green Team is comprised of volunteers and game day staff who collect plastic cups and bottles during the "Green Stretch" in the eighth inning. Green Team volunteers will also collect cups and bottles during an additional two innings of the game and encourage stadium guests to recycle.
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Russ Tamblyn
Birth Name: Russ Tamblyn
Born: 12/30/1934
Birth Place: Los Angeles, California, USA
Born: 12/30/1934
Birth Place: Los Angeles, California, USA
He was born Russell Irving Tamblyn on Dec. 30, 1935 in Los Angeles, the older of two boys by actors Eddie Tamblyn and his wife, Sally Triplett. His younger brother, Larry, found fame in the 1960s as a pop singer and keyboardist for the garage rock group the Standells of "Dirty Water" fame. Russ Tamblyn followed his parents' footsteps into an acting career while parlaying a natural grace and athleticism into acrobatics and dance. At 10, he was discovered by actor Lloyd Bridges, who gave him his first stage role in a play he was directing called "Stone Jungle." Three years later, he made his screen debut as a student opposite fellow child star Dean Stockwell in "The Boy with Green Hair" (1948)... Continue Bio >>
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I'm sure this has been covered quite a few times, but here goes. I used the instructions in another thread (which were based on an article at LifeHacker from 2 years ago) to add my hotmail account to Zimbra Desktop. The article is at Lifehacker, tips and downloads for getting things done
The server information that I used is this:
If you want to start using it now, there are some details you should be aware of:
POP server: pop3.live.com (Port 995)
POP SSL required? Yes
User name: Your Windows Live ID, for example firstname.lastname@example.com
Password: The password you usually use to sign in to Hotmail or Windows Live
SMTP server: smtp.live.com (Port 25 or 465?)
Authentication required? Yes (this matches your POP username and password)
TLS/SSL required? Yes.
If I set it up without SSL using Port 25, it validates perfectly. However, if I click the SSL Checkbox, and pick Port 25, it fails to authenticate (this was per the previous thread). If I choose 465, which is the default port, it failes to authenticate with a timeout error.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated. For most of the accounts, I don't ***need*** the smtp access, but there are a couple that I do.
Have a great day:)


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Latest Headlines
Cooler than average temperatures this week.
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The Hague, Netherlands (Sports Network) - Tobin Heath opened the scoring while
Christen Press added a brace to see the United States women's national team
claim a 3-1 victory over the Netherlands in a friendly match at Kyocera
Stadium on Tuesday.
The opening goal came in the 36th minute of play after Sydney Leroux centered
a low cross that was dummied by Press and slotted home by Heath from 15 yards
Leroux helped set up the second goal just before halftime as her well-place
through ball released Press on goal. The 24-year-old made her way around the
'keeper and calmly slipped her shot into the back of the net.
Press made it three at the hour mark with some fine individual play. She
turned her defender inside out before lashing a shot just inside the far post.
The Dutch managed to pull back a consolation goal nine minutes from time as
Manon Melis latched on to a diagonal ball and lofted a shot over the head of
Ashlyn Harris, but the match belonged to Heath, Press and the Americans.
The win sees the U.S. women preserve their unbeaten record so far this year,
going 6-0-2 in their first eight matches of 2013.
The Americans return to action on June 2 with a friendly match against Canada.
The Sports Network


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With stock markets hitting all time highs, the question on everyone's mind is how long will this bull market last. Since March 2009, global equities have rallied 140 per cent and investors have more than doubled their money in the asset class. But can the equity market still produce good returns from here? Purely on longevity grounds, the answer is yes.Read more
This year's UK general election is one of the most tightly contested in a generation and an outright majority for one of the main parties appears unlikely. Our analysis of the past 114 years shows the greatest market impact occurred in those years when the general election resulted in a change of prime minister.Read more
It is a difficult time to be an economics student. Correct answers to complex questions are hard to come by at the best of times but the current environment is littered with exceptions, often to non-existent rules. One core issue is the cause of most consternation: can you fix a highly indebted global economy, on the verge of collapse in 2008, by taking on more debt?
Read more
Welcome to 2015. Another year goes by and the number of questions about the prospects for the global economy continues to grow in size and in complexity. It is customary at the beginning of January to make predictions about the year ahead. Yet history shows that forecasts rarely materialise...Read more
Blink and you would have missed it. Global equity markets were up 2 per cent in October, but that positive monthly performance hides the big intra-month gyrations in markets. Spooked by an International Monetary Fund (IMF) report on economic growth, or lack thereof, global equities lost 8 per cent between mid-September and mid- October, only to bounce back strongly by the end of October. Government bond yields also fell, as you would expect when equity market volatility increases. Interestingly, fear led yields to dive in the US and the UK, two countries that are expected to raise rates in the near term.Read more
Central banks are finally going to raise interest rates; at least that is what some policymakers are telling investors. Although some central banks are signalling rate rises, the next phase of global monetary policy is likely to see diverging paths between the major central banks. The Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are poised to tighten monetary policy by exiting quantitative easing programmes and by increasing interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People's Bank of China (PBC) are injecting monetary stimulus into their banking systems and economies.Read more
The world is on the brink. Numerous geopolitical events are threatening to spill over into the economy and derail the recovery that is finally gaining momentum. In addition, these tragic events have increased the uncertainty in financial markets in what has been a relatively calm year. The stories of human suffering combined with the risks of military escalation have dominated the press - including the financial media. The all-too-familiar red bannered "breaking news" headlines continue to hit the newswires on a daily basis, making it impossible to miss the unfolding geopolitical tensions. While regional conflicts inevitably hurt local economies, the key question for investors should be how much do they affect broader financial markets? Should investors adjust their portfolios when those red alerts hit their screens, or should they stick to their investment processes by focusing on fundamentals?Read more
When the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) – the Central Banks' bank – warns that a crash is coming, it is best to sit up and take notice. In the BIS' recent annual report, it suggests that the low interest rate environment created by policymakers, its very own members, has put, "global financial markets under the spell of monetary policy". With equity markets hitting record highs and yields across the fixed income space hitting record lows, the BIS says investors are being forced to accept more risk for inadequate return.Read more
Scottish voters will vote against independence on 18th September 2014; at least that is the indication from the latest opinion polls, which are suggesting approximately 47 per cent will vote "no" and 32 per cent will vote "yes" (with the rest undecided). The bookies are showing an even higher probability of a "no" vote with odds at a paltry 2/11. Nonetheless, with just over three months to go until the referendum, there is still plenty of opportunity for politicians to unleash promises and policies to swing the voters.Read more
The global economy is finally back on its feet. With unemployment falling, growth rising, consumer confidence increasing and retail sales improving, central bankers have much to be excited about. However, recent central bank minutes and rhetoric belies confidence in the recovery. Central bankers are still worried, about the one thing that got them to initiate quantitative easing in the first place: deflation.Read more
The ringing of the opening bell at the stock exchange is one of the most iconic images of corporate success and economic health. In 2007 – when the world economy was roaring and markets were at a peak – 214 companies went public in the US. Just one year later – as the wheels fell off the global financial system – that number plunged to 31. During the doom and gloom that followed, initial public offerings (IPO) were relatively rare. And then suddenly in 2013, the IPO market roared back into life: over the year, 222 companies came to market; almost as many as the two prior years combined. It was also a prolific year in the UK, where 31 companies were publicly listed; three times are many as 2012.Read more
Financial markets do not need central bank support anymore, or so it seems from recent events. In January, emerging market fears triggered a strong sell-off in global risk assets. However, a February rally more than reversed the fall and some equity indices actually hit record highs. Then, in March, an ongoing crisis in the Ukraine led to a sharp sell-off on the first trading day of the month, only for markets to recover within 24 hours. Yet there is something critically absent from the post-fall recoveries of 2014 compared to the ones witnessed over the past five years: the absence of intervention from central banks and other policymakers.
Since the 2008 crisis, investor jitters over economic growth (i.e. Europe, US, Japan) or geopolitical tension (i.e. Italian elections, US government shutdown, Cyprus "bail-in") have typically required firm central bank intervention – "liquidity crutches" – for upward trajectory to be regained.
So, is the paradigm shifting? Are markets ready to rid themselves of their life support?Read more
2014 will be a negative year for equities. At least that is the conventional wisdom derived from the mysterious "January effect". The theory is as follows: if January is a down month, the rest of the year is typically a down year. So that is the theory, but does it hold in practice? Let us examine the evidence.
In the past 113 years, the US equity market has registered losses in January a total of 34 times. Out of those 34 times, the US equity market was down 19 times in that year. In other words, when January is a negative month, the equity market registers losses 56 per cent of the time in the same year. While the probability of the equity market going up or down when January is a negative month is similar to that of a toss of a coin, it is nonetheless significantly higher than in years where January is a positive month. In the past 113 years, the equity market was up in January the other 79 times; the market ended negatively in nearly 20 per cent of those years. Unambiguously, the probability of annual losses is higher when January is a negative month than when it is positive.
The above analysis would suggest the "January effect" has some relevance in practice, but is that enough evidence to conclude the five year old bull market is coming to an end? Is this recent wobble the preamble to the bursting of the central bank induced risk-asset bubble?Read more
Welcome to 2014! At the start of each year, it is customary for investors and economists to make predictions about what the year ahead has in store. We take a different stance. Instead of making predictions, we focus on identifying some of the scenarios that could surprise markets.
But before setting out five possible shock headlines for 2014, we begin with a review of the five potential surprises we identified at the beginning of 2013 to see how they panned out.Read more
A simple theoretical model would suggest that if the economy is growing, consumers spend more, companies make more money and are consequently worth more, and, as such, share prices rise. If this paradigm holds, investors should rejoice as economies in much of the developed world appear to be growing again. Refreshingly, given the years of doom and gloom, Japan and the UK lead the developed markets' fourth quarter growth projections in the IMF's recent World Economic Outlook report. Even Europe, tentatively, appears to be turning a corner. Indeed, global equities are up 11 per cent in the past six months.Read more
Looking back in time, financial historians will be able to draw a number of lessons from the raucous five years since the financial crisis of 2008. During this period, policymakers, haunted by the spectre of the Great Depression, turned monetary policy into liquidity bazookas also known as quantitative easing (QE). Investors have had little reason to complain. The bubbling and frothy levels of liquidity have been primarily ploughed into risk assets such as equities and corporate bonds since the crisis, bidding up prices across the board.Read more
Risk, in the most typical quantitative sense, is defined as the variance or standard deviation of a portfolio. Yet this somewhat sterile definition does not quite capture what risk is. A quick Google search leads to a more textured definition: risk is the potential of loss resulting from a given action – or even inaction.
For investors, this translates into the potential to lose money by making – or not making – an investment. Ironically, not taking risk at all is the surest way to lose money. This can also be thought of as having no aim other than capital preservation. An investor wishing only to preserve capital can start with £100 and simply do nothing. The notional £100 will be returned at the end of any and every investment horizon, and while capital has indeed been preserved, money has been lost due to the compounding and corrosive effects of inflation.Read more
"Will he or won't he?" are the questions investors have been trying to answer for the last few months. 'He' is Ben Bernanke and the questions being asked are about the withdrawal of the huge monetary stimulus that has flooded markets with cheap credit. If "he won't", the good times will keep rolling. But the fear that "he will" sends most investors scurrying to review their positions with trepidation. Listening to central bank rhetoric only adds to the confusion, but focusing on the facts provides some clues as to what might happen.Read more
As investors, we are all different. Or are we? While we may have different income requirements and tolerances for risk, we all fundamentally want the same thing: at the very least, we want to preserve the purchasing power of our savings over time. Investment losses clearly have the potential to quickly - if not spectacularly - slash our capital values (and therefore purchasing power). However, inflation can also destroy purchasing power; it just tends to be slower and more constant. Increasingly higher prices for goods and services results in our money buying less over time. This permanent erosion of purchasing power can be more punishing than the gyrations of financial markets. For example, one hundred pounds kept under the mattress over the past five years is now worth only eighty pounds today in terms of purchasing power; simply put, money has lost 20 per cent of its real value. Global equities on the other hand have managed to preserve purchasing power over the same period, even against the backdrop of a global financial crisis filled with economic doom and gloom.Read more
Commodity markets have had a lacklustre start to the year. Overall, commodity prices are down 5.1 per cent so far this year, and are in negative momentum. Precious metals, such as gold and silver, and industrial metals, such as aluminium and copper, are down 15.7 and 12.3 per cent respectively, while energy prices are up 4.5 per cent. Despite this recent weak performance, commodities still have a role in multi asset portfolios, but given the negative momentum, we now hold only a marginal allocation.Read more
The year is off to a strong start with equity markets continuing to climb. While the equity rally in the first quarter of 2012 was broad – developed and emerging markets both rose – the rally in 2013 has been fragmented. American and Japanese equities have led the way, up 10 per cent and 19 per cent respectively. In contrast, emerging market equities have lagged, down 1 per cent so far this year. Nonetheless, emerging market equities remain a good investment opportunity.Read more
Currency markets are at war. With policymakers under tremendous pressure to boost domestic economic growth – and having nearly exhausted most conventional means – many are now actively targeting weakness in their own currencies. Japan has drawn its sword for battle; recent efforts to stimulate its economy have caused a stir in the $4 trillion a day foreign exchange markets. This has led to a rise in currency market volatility, contrary to the relative calm in equity markets.Read more
2013 is off to a flying start. Global equities are up 5.0 per cent and investors appear to be in an increasingly 'risk-on' mode. Current positive momentum could keep equity markets well supported; however, the risk of a correction cannot be ignored. To that end, combining 'risk-on' assets with 'risk-off' assets, such as gold is prudent to balance out the risks in portfolios.Read more
Headlines proclaiming that the so-called fiscal cliff (the ending of Bush-era tax cuts and the start of planned spending cuts) is averted have reignited markets. Global equity markets rallied on reports of a deal.Read more
As 2012 draws to a close, pundits will inevitably forecast what 2013 has in store for the global economy and financial markets. Forecasting is a fruitless task. History is replete with embarrassing and erroneous forecasts made by bona fide experts. So in this end-of-year blog, rather than forecast what will happen in 2013, we assess potential risks and opportunities that are not currently priced into the market, but could define 2013.Read more
Financial history is replete with bubbles and crises; indeed markets seem to travel from bubble to bubble. In the past two decades, markets have suffered from two major bubbles which burst and left some economies in recession. First came the dotcom bubble in the late 1990s followed by the housing bubble in the run up to the 2007 credit crunch. The question now is "where is the next bubble going to come from?" With bond yields at all time lows, the sovereign bond market, especially in the US and the UK, is expensive and posturing as the next big bubble.Read more
Central bankers are at it again. Last month they gave the market another round of liquidity injections. The European Central Bank unveiled its Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme to assist the weaker Eurozone economies by buying their debt. The Federal Reserve then unleashed QE3 to help the labour market by reducing mortgage rates. There has been much talk about what the US needs to do to avoid the twin predicaments of slow growth and deflation that the Japanese economy has faced since 1989. To avert a Japanese-style lost decade or two, the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, have committed to keeping rates lower for longer and the monetary taps open. So is the US doing enough to avoid being the next Japan?To answer this question, it is useful to look at the similarities and differences between the crises faced by the two economies.Read more
If by 'it' we mean the stock market, then the answer is nothing.
A simple theoretical model would suggest that if the economy is growing, consumers spend more, companies make more money and are therefore worth more. As such, share prices rise. It is simple and logical. The corollary is also theoretically true. When the economy contracts, people become unemployed and consumers spend less. Companies therefore generate fewer sales and start to lose money, and so company share prices decline.Read more
Is it possible to make money in a world where, in just three years, 40 per cent of economic output is wiped out and unemployment shoots up from 3 per cent to 25 per cent, leaving a quarter of the working population out of a job? Is it possible to make money in a world where, over a decade, the stock market halves in value, bankruptcies become the norm not the exception, and uncertainty permeates the media and everyday life? The answer is yes.Read more
Financial markets are caught between two regimes; mountains of debt and the ensuing growth burden pull the market in one direction, while liquidity injections pull it in the other. Our central thesis is that the risks from the mountains of debt outweigh the return potential from the liquidity injections, hence our defensive stance year to date.Read more
After a strong start to the year, the sugar rush from central bank liquidity has started to wear off. While positive investor sentiment lifted markets higher in the first few months of 2012, the elephant in the room - the eurozone sovereign crisis - went largely unnoticed. However, recent developments in Spain have woken investors up to the realities of the sovereign debt crisis.Read more
The mountains of sovereign debt are still there, budget deficits are still enormous, and the global economy is still operating below capacity. So what is there to be cheerful about? Liquidity.Read more
Uncertain and challenging, these are two words that are likely to be used for many years to come to describe the prevailing economic climate. Major economies are buried under mountains of debt and growth is not forthcoming; conditions that have often taken economies down the slippery slope of credit rating downgrades and debt restructuring. Despite this, February proved to be another strong month for risk assets with the equity market up 7 per cent so far this year, the 11th best start to the year since 1962.Read more
"How will it end?" This is the question on all investors' minds. It has been nearly five years since the credit crisis broke in 2007, and the world is still no closer to putting this chapter of economic history behind us. It would be an understatement to say we live in uncertain times, and it is impossible to predict what exactly will happen next. Still, historical evidence suggests the end game must involve bringing debt back to sustainable levels for both the private and public sectors.Read more
Financial markets are like a sick patient in constant need of saving. Since the credit crisis broke in 2007, policymakers have announced package after package to save the financial markets from meltdown. On 30th November 2011, central banks launched yet another programme to ease the stress in the banking system by reducing US dollar funding costs in the swap markets. This helped the markets rally on the day, but the question now is "is it enough?"Read more
When asked how they make investment decisions, investors often discuss a myriad of economic and market indicators they follow to help them form a view on markets. If they are feeling jovial, investors may jokingly answer by citing one of the oldest adages in the world of investing, "we buy low and sell high". This sounds like a simple rule, but in practice, it is often a challenge to determine whether the market is low or high at any point in time. Wouldn't it be great to have a way of establishing if the market was near a low, or more importantly for wealth preservation, near a high so we could avoid losing money? Luckily we can. Empirically, valuation is the most dependable way of identifying the highs and lows in markets.Read more
Three years ago the world banking system went into crisis and sent the global economy into a savage recession. The world's leaders came together and acted in a co-ordinated manner to deliver the largest economic policy stimulus in history using just about every tool they had; infrastructure spending funded by borrowing, tax cuts, dramatic cuts in interest rates and abundant liquidity in the money markets. At first it seemed to work, the world came out of recession in the second half of 2009, and continued to grow into early part of 2011. However the action of both equity and government bond markets since the third quarter is clearly indicating that investors now feel the world is slipping back into recession.Read more
The globalisation of the world economy has accelerated in the last 20 years on the back of the trend towards freer trade following the Uruguay Round talks which concluded in 1994 and the opening up of the Asian economies to international investment, enabling multinational companies to take advantage of the much lower labour costs, initially in Asia and then more particularly, in China, to manufacture their goods and then ship them to western consumers who paid for them on credit provided by their banking systems who derived their deposits, ultimately, from the savings of those same Asian workers.Read more
With just a few hours to spare the America political system managed to come to an agreement that would have prevented the US government from spending any more money, possibly leading to a default on Treasury debt. Markets had always expected such an outcome but the bitter divisions between Republicans and Democrats on taxation policy came quite close to wrecking things. A compromise was found but the details of that compromise are very disappointing.Read more
The second quarter ended with markets rallying on the news that the Greek government had managed to deliver its parliamentary majority for the further austerity measures that the IMF and the EU demanded in return for continued access to bailout monies that means it can avoid defaulting on debt repayments. For Greek politicians this means they keep their jobs and the goodwill of other European politicians for a little while longer, whilst German and French politicians can claim to be good Europeans (for helping out a fellow euro country in distress and ensuring that there is no crisis within the euro) and at the same time not be forced into providing a second bailout of their domestic banking systems.Read more
Looking at the history of financial market bubbles, one interesting but neglected fact is that they have all tended to be fairly localised affairs. The often-quoted Tulip Bubble of the 1630s only really affected Holland and Dutch speculators, and in more recent times, the bubble in Japanese property and equity markets was mainly first enjoyed and then endured by Japanese investors and institutions. Foreigners generally do not seem to have got caught up in the "groupthink" that can persuade otherwise sane people to pay astronomically high amounts for certain assets. Arguably the TMT bubble of the late 90s had a more international dimension, with both Europeans and Americans paying vast prices or the hope of the internet and technology in general. In fact the internet has probably developed even further and faster than many would have dreamed possible then, but unfortunately companies overall have not found ways to translate that technological change into huge profits.Read more
The credit crisis of 2008 would normally have led to an enormously long and deep recession in the Western world as banks and consumers sought to reduce the size of their balance sheets. That it didn't was down to governments who sought to protect both their economies and their national banking systems using money they had to borrow from financial markets. Most governments are now having to face up to the implications of that decision.Read more
In the years up to 2007, the global economy found itself subject to several key trends which boosted "disinflationary growth". That is they were good for growth, but also helped to keep inflation low. The transition of the Chinese population from farms to cities was the key force here as 20 million workers every year were able to leave work which just managed to feed them to find new jobs in manufacturing in the cities at wages they could only dream of previously but which were fractions of the wages paid to similar workers in developed economies.Read more
The living standards of the average UK household are being squeezed in every direction, and this, as the Governor of the Bank of England recently reminded us, is the unwelcome but necessary outcome of the end of the debt-fuelled spending boom of the first seven years of this century.Read more
In 2009, several Eurostar trains broke down inside the Channel Tunnel and the media blamed "the wrong sort of fluffy snow" for the incidents – an excuse which was greatly derided at the time. Central Banks may be about to use the same sort of excuse for inflation rates in the UK and Europe which are above the targets set for them. One would expect some rather more opaque language than "the wrong sort of inflation" from Central Bankers, but it would be a fairly accurate description.Read more
2011 promises to be a very important year for politicians. The decisions they make or don't make this year will have profound consequences for their economies and the financial markets.Read more
As the EU and IMF conclude their second European bailout of the year (should there be an award for Best Bailout of 2010 one wonders), the markets are focussing their attention on Portugal and Spain as the next recipients of such assistance, and on whether the euro can survive. It is helped by the deliberate non-existence of an exit process. This was for two reasons; the first being that if there were such a process, its very existence would make it more likely that it would be used and it would thus be counter-productive and the second that in the event of the sort of disaster now striking the eurozone, then the euro's designers assumed and indeed desired that it would force a move towards greater political union in order to enforce and save the monetary union. Thus the EU would demand much stricter budgetary control over the offender in exchange for the money necessary to get them out of their problems.Read more
This year, stock market earnings per share in the US and the UK are expected to be only a little below the records set in 2007, and analysts are confidently expecting that 2011 earnings will exceed those records. What makes this even more impressive is that this is an industrial company phenomenon – banks are reporting large profits thanks to zero interest rates, but their earnings per share are a fraction of the record levels of a few years ago due to the huge increase in the number of shares they have had to issue to repair their balance sheets. Industrial corporate profit margins are near 60 year highs.Read more
Recent weeks have seen several countries take a clear step towards an easing of economic policies. Japan was first; following a party leadership challenge to the current prime minister (which was defeated), he immediately reversed his economic policy of not intervening in the foreign exchange market and ordered a massive $20bn+ operation to sell yen and buy dollars in an effort to push down the value of the yen – such a policy has always been actively discouraged by the Bank of Japan, but the government had indicated that it would do more in an effort to boost the Japanese economy.Read more
Ben Bernanke's recent admission at the Jackson Hole conference that "central bankers alone cannot solve the world's economic problems", which was echoed by others there, is very worrying on several levels.Read more