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East Detroit student dies following pool accident
By Kevin Bunch
Posted November 12, 2013
A ninth-grader at East Detroit High School injured in a pool accident Nov. 8 died in the hospital the evening of Nov. 11.
According to the Eastpointe Police Department, emergency services were called to the high school around 1:07 p.m. for a drowning accident at the school pool involving student KeAir Swift. They were able to administer first aid, and Swift was transported to a local hospital for further treatment.
Police Detective Lt. Dave Ernatt said Swift had been on life support, which was shut off.
Police detectives are continuing to find out what happened, including interviewing witnesses, Public Safety Director John McNeilance said.
"The investigation is still ongoing," McNeilance said. "We're still talking to people and getting that put together."
"We need to finish up a few interviews and complete the investigation," Ernatt said. A press release from the school district stated that it does not expect criminal charges to be filed against anybody.
During the East Detroit Public Schools Board of Education meeting Nov. 11, Superintendent Joanne Lelekatch issued a statement asking for members of the community to keep Swift's family in their thoughts. Meeting attendees were not yet aware of Swift's passing.
"These are difficult times for us and the family," she said. "It's not just an accident involving a student we all read about. It's an accident involving one of our own. He was one of us."
Swim coach Kirsten Trube-Sheikh brought along to the meeting several of her swimmers to show support for Swift, while board members each expressed their solidarity with the family.
Lelekatch said in a statement that the school is working on a comprehensive review of the events and is cooperating fully with local authorities to find out the details of what happened to prevent it from occurring again.
The school press release stated that the district also brought in grief counselors and a crisis team to work with students and staff, and the Macomb Intermediate School District has provided additional support for teachers and staff.
About the author
Staff Writer Kevin Bunch covers the communities of Eastpointe and Roseville, as well as Roseville Community Schools and East Detroit Public Schools. He has worked at C&G Newspapers since 2013, and is a graduate of Wayne State University and Henry Ford Community College. Kevin is also a 2015 Metcalf Institute for Marine & Environmental Reporting alumni.
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Hanes Boys' Better Basic Full Zip Hood
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About this item
Important Made in USA Origin Disclaimer: For certain items sold by Walmart on Walmart.com, the displayed country of origin information may not be accurate or consistent with manufacturer information. For updated, accurate country of origin data, it is recommended that you rely on product packaging or manufacturer information.
The Hanes Boys' Hoodie is made especially for boys, offering comfort and durability. It is medium weight and composed of 7.8-ounce cotton blend fleece. This hoodie is ideal for year-round wear for the boys in your family. It features roomy front pockets and ribbed waistband and cuffs and is made with up to 5 percent polyester created from recycled plastic. It offers easy care, being machine washable and then snapping right back to its original shape, ready once again for action. This jacket is easy to zip, lightweight and very warm. If you're looking for a boys' basic hoodie with good quality, this is it. Boys will be boys, and the Hanes full-zip hoodie was built for them.
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- Ribbed waistband and cuffs
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- Machine wash the Hanes full-zip hoodie again and again without hesitation because it is pill resistant
Fabric Care Instructions: Machine wash cold, non chlorine bleach when needed. Tumble dry low.
|Multicolor , Black
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Customer Reviews | 56 reviews | 4.5 out of 5
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Customer review by MsQuality
My son's school only allows navy blue zip hoodies w/o any logos, stripes, etc. , which are not easy to find. These hoodies are perfect!.. Comfortable and the perfect color.
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- Size XS is for boys ages two to four with a chest size between 20 and 22 inches and a weight between 36 and 42 pounds. Size S is for boys who are ages six to eight who weigh between 42 and 55 pounds and have a chest size of 22 to 26 inches.by CommunityAnswer4/20/2015Was this answer helpful? (4) (1)Was this answer helpful?
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Written on: 31/07/2013 by mariesavv (1 review written)
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OK np
Hey man we still have till tonight to complete any deals. So if ur still interested in our trade I can add LMA / Prince to it if necessary
Marc Gasol for Doug Christie style trade?
I can get you Earl Monroe in our deal as well, I just need to know if you're in or not. I'm talking about Pistol Pete as well and if he takes it I'm jumping on it. I just need to know whether we can make this happen or not.
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Lakshman Prasad
I am a curious learner!
You should follow me on twitter as @becomingGuru
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2 Reviews
This was good. Simple, and yet a little different. I added some chopped strawberries in addition to the raisins, since we didn't have enough, but pretty cool. Thanks for sharing!
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Jessica McClintock Mesh Clutch
Jimmy Choo 'Camille' Glitter Clutch - Metallic
Silvery glitter and golden netting beautifully catch and reflect the light on this shimmering evening clutch from Jimmy Choo. A champagne-hued silk interior and gilded, logo-etched hardware make this style indulgent from the inside out. Flip-lock closure. Interior wall pocket. Silk lining. Textile. By Jimmy Choo; made in Italy. Designer ... Learn More
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text:
Racing Rivals
By Cie Games
Open iTunes to buy and download apps.
True real-time racing at your fingertips. Racing Rivals lets you challenge or be challenged by live opponents in game lobbies with feature race replays and live chat.
Back your bets with skill unless you're prepared to lose cash - or your car! The stakes are high and the risk is real. Can you handle it?
Does your team have what it takes to dominate Turf Wars? Race in weekly competitions to control cities, earn gems, and bonuses for your team! Exclusive Prizes means cars no one else can buy, wrapped in livery no one else has seen.
Racing Rivals presents a huge collection of licensed cars ranging from tunes and exotics to classic American muscle. Featured brands include McLaren, Subaru, Dodge, Mitsubishi, Ford, RWB, Scion, BMW, Acura and SRT with more on the way!
Find the optimal tune for your car with hundreds performance parts in thousands of combinations - everything from air filters to crankshafts will impact your car's performance. Up your game by adding NOS, a supercharger or turbo, custom rims from the biggest players like Volk Racing, Pacer, and SSR, plus real world tires from Nitto!
IMPORTANT: Racing Rivals requires an internet connection to play and requires iOS 6.0 or later. Note: Racing Rivals is not supported on the Ipod touch (4th gen)
Racing Rivals is free to play, but you can choose to pay real money for some extra items, which will charge your iTunes account. You can disable in-app purchasing by adjusting your device settings.
Find us on Facebook: http://bit.ly/RacingRivalsFans
Find us on Twitter: http://bit.ly/RacingRivalsTweets
Questions or Suggestions? Visit our forums: http://bit.ly/RacingRivalsForums
Terms of Service: http://www.glu.com/terms
Privacy Policy: http://www.glu.com/privacy
What's New in Version 5.0.2
Bug Fixes for an improved playing experience
Customer Reviews
Hi im from puerto rico.
I just got to say here in PR people love this game so much ! What people dont like is that when u try to trade or sell people trick u and take your car!
I got a really good idea for you guys to try to do.... Why not making a button where ses (trade or sell)
And of u click it the person has the choice to accept like an inbox messege. Then when accepting both get in a window where only them two can watch. In one side one person chooses what they want to put in their list such as cars money etc. And the other player as well. And if both agree to the offers the trade is done! Thats it ! If bot they just decline and trade cancels.
I just got this idea because there is so much people having to start the game or stop playing it because of scammers, i really think this can make a big difference in racing rivals gameplay! Thank you for reading hope i helped with my idea if you want more info on what i mean or how it might look like search me on facebook Jumaurys Rosado . And imbox me il aways answer thank you!
Stop the scammers!!!
Please get rid of the "join a friend" feature. It leads to too much scamming because of "lobby jumpers". People need to be able to race fair without their hard earned cars (some bought with REAL $$$) being taken from them in a scam. If people want to "race their friends", they can simply message them and join in a car of the same rating.
You developers are just as bad as the scammers by not putting an end to this and permitting the scamming to continue. People love this game and have given you so much $ trying to enjoy it and have fun. You should show them you appreciate them and care and DO something about this! Yes the new cars are great and all, but if you end the scamming problem it will mean much more to people.
Avoid this game customer service is horrid
I have played this app for a few years.
I absolutely love the concept. Love the gameplay and the car detail.
Love the turf wars and all the friends I have made in this game.
I hate the company's lack of concern over dealing with the high level of hacking. Be careful! The game has become overrun with cheaters and scammers that will take advantage of you. You have to assume you are racing against a scammer unless you know the person!
I have spent thousands of dollars on this app over the past few years and countless hours "turfing" and building cars.
At the end of March my account was banned. I emailed the customer service department asking for an explanation at least four times. They have failed to respond. Period.
Like I said, I love this app and have made hundreds of friends that I communicate with outside of the game.
I am frustrated that the company has failed to deal with the ongoing cheaters that hack the game.
I don't know any company that will not respond to a legitimate customer service issue- other than this one that is!
- Free
- Category: Games
- Updated: May 09, 2016
- Version: 5.0.2
- Size: 165 MB
- Languages: English, Arabic, French, German, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Turkish
- Seller: Cie Games, Inc.
- © 2013 - 2016 Cie Games
Compatibility: Requires iOS 7.0 or later. Compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch.
Top In-App Purchases
- Convenience Gems Package$1.99
- Sports Gems Package$4.99
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- Premium Gems Package$19.99
- Wallet Cash Package$9.99
- Briefcase Cash Package$19.99
- Executive Gems Package$49.99
- Starter Pack - '12 BMW M3$1.99


text:
Members Area
Sign up for Offers
Latest News / Blog
About Us
Contact Us
Swim Times
For the enjoyment of all our guests, we offer dedicated adult only and family swim times at The Forum Pool, so you can find a time to clock up the laps or just splash around.
* From 07.00am on Saturday and Sunday
Parents wishing to swim with their children outside these dedicated times are welcome to use the pool at Dylans Health and Fitness Club.
Please be aware that both The Forum Health Club and Dylans Health and Fitness Club are required to adhere to The Celtic Manor Resort's health and safety policy which states that when using the swimming pool, the following adult to child ratios must apply:
Contact Us
Escape the city for some country cool in the exclusive surroundings of our sumptuous luxury lodges. Click here to find out more!
Bringing Children
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Caerleon Golf Club is a 9 hole golf course in the village of Caerleon, a short drive from the Resort.
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text:
Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc.
100 - 249
5 - 10 Million
SIC Code:
8742 - Management Consulting Services
Full company description is available with the free trial.
Additional Info:
Want to know how to get in touch with them? Lead411 has the email addresses of Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc.'s top officials for the company domain @hshassoc.com format. Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc. is a Automotive/transportation company centred in Boston, MA and our profiles could include more contact information like cfo people, linkedin contacts, phone numbers and facebook pages. If you sign up for our free trial you will see our email@example.com addresses.
Company Background:
Full company description is available with the free trial.
Ceo Reference:
Tom Stokes
Tom Stokes is the current CEO. You can find Tom Stokes's linkedin profile, phone numbers, wiki, twitter, and biography on Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc.'s Lead411 profile, as well as Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc. email addresses with the @hshassoc.com domain format. Tom Stokes's email may or may not be inside the profile. Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc. is situated in Boston, MA. You can find their contact information on Lead411 categorized under Automotive/transportation. Some possible email formats for Tom Stokes are email@example.com, email@example.com, email@example.com, and firstname.lastname@example.com. If you sign up for our free trial you will see our email@example.com addresses.
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Mass Bay Transportation
Mass Bay Transportation, a business led by CEO Beverly Scott, is part of the Automotive/transportation industry. Mass Bay Transportation email with the @mbta.com format, you can check their Lead411 profile. They hold their main office in Boston, MA and more data like cfo contacts and linkedin data can be found within our profiles. If you sign up for our free trial you will see our email@example.com addresses.
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Lily Transportation Corp
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Company Directory > Howard/Stein-Hudson Associates, Inc.


text:
I have to say that even though I think this Energizer campaign is pretty funny, I do not believe it is worthy of a Cannes Lions 2008 Press Grand Prix. We are talking GRAND PRIX, people. Not just a gold or silver. I guess the competition must have really sucked...
The ads which were created by DDB South Africa, promote Energizer's Lithium Batteries and target parents. With a tag line of, "Never let their toys die," the ads show you what kids can be up to if you don't make sure their toys are well juiced. The mischief includes painting the poor dog, exposing their privates to each other, spitting from balconies, and taping a sibling to revolving toys...
The ads then advice you to keep these toys going and going with Energizer, "The world's longest lasting battery."
Hmmm... Maybe the campaign is indeed worthy of the Grand Prix. What do you think?
Stats for Controversial Depictions of Children
Trending: Older & Average
Research: 12,122 clicks in 412 w
Interest: 4 minutes
Concept: Controversial Depictions Of Children
Related: 48 examples / 37 photos
Segment: Females, 18-35
Comparison Set: 18 similar articles, including: snapchat rewards program filters, transforming flatpack chairs, and multifunctional attic apartments.
Controversial Depictions of Children
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Improved personal data collection is supported by local Serbian officials and staff from ABA ROLI 's office in Serbia, which is officially incorporated as ABA CEELI
February 2009
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Dennis Prangle and Richard Everitt arXived a note today where they point out the identity between the auxiliary variable approach of Møller et al. (2006) [or rather its multiple or annealed version à la Murray] and [exact] ABC (as in our 2009 paper) in the case of Markov random fields. The connection between the two appears when using an importance sampling step in the ABC algorithm and running a Markov chain forward and backward the same number of steps as there are levels in the annealing scheme of MAV. Maybe more a curiosity than an indicator of a large phenomenon, since it is so rare that ABC can be use in its exact form.
Archive for unbiased estimation
auxiliary variable methods as ABCPosted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags ABC, auxiliary variable, doubly intractable problems, Markov random field, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, unbiased estimation on May 9, 2016 by xi'an
multilevel Monte Carlo for estimating constantsPosted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags multilevel Monte Carlo, normalising constant, particle filter, sequential Monte Carlo, telescoping formula, unbiased estimation on March 18, 2016 by xi'an
Pierre Del Moral, Ajay Jasra, Kody Law, and Yan Zhou just arXived a paper entitled Sequential Monte Carlo samplers for normalizing constants. Which obviously attracted my interest! The context is one of a sequential Monte Carlo problem, with an associated sequence of targets and of attached normalising constants. While the quantity of interest only relates to the final distribution in the sequence, using Mike Giles' multilevel Monte Carlo approach allows for a more accurate estimation and recycling all the past particles, thanks to the telescoping formula. And the sequential representation also allows for an unbiased estimator, as is well known in the sequential Monte Carlo literature. The paper derives accurate bounds on both the variances of two normalisation constant estimators and the costs of producing such estimators (assuming there is an index typo in Corollary 3.1, where L-2 should be L-1). The improvement when compared with traditional SMC is clear on the example contained in the paper. As I read the paper rather quickly and without much attention to the notations, I may have missed the point, but I did not see any conclusion on the choice of the particle population size at each iteration of the SMC. After asking Ajay about it, he pointed out that this size can be derived as
(with notations taken from the paper).
more e's [and R's]Posted in Kids, pictures, R, Statistics with tags cross validated, debiasing, George Forsythe, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, R, Russian roulette, simulation, unbiased estimation on February 22, 2016 by xi'an
Alex Thiéry suggested debiasing the biased estimate of e by Rhee and Glynn truncated series method, so I tried the method to see how much of an improvement (if any!) this would bring. I first attempted to naïvely implement the raw formula of Rhee and Glynn
with a (large) Poisson distribution on the stopping rule N, but this took ages. I then realised that the index n did not have to be absolute, i.e. to start at n=1 and proceed snailwise one integer at a time: the formula remains equally valid after a change of time, i.e. n=can start at an arbitrary value and proceeds by steps of arbitrary size, which obviously speeds things up! Continue reading
Bayesian model comparison with intractable constantsPosted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags ABC, auxiliary variable, bias vs. variance, CRiSM, estimating constants, importance sampling, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, normalising constant, pseudo-marginal MCMC, SMC, unbiased estimation, University of Warwick on February 8, 2016 by xi'an
Richard Everitt, Adam Johansen (Warwick), Ellen Rowing and Melina Evdemon-Hogan have updated [on arXiv] a survey paper on the computation of Bayes factors in the presence of intractable normalising constants. Apparently destined for Statistics and Computing when considering the style. A great entry, in particular for those attending the CRiSM workshop Estimating Constants in a few months!
A question that came to me from reading the introduction to the paper is why a method like Møller et al.'s (2006) auxiliary variable trick should be considered more "exact" than the pseudo-marginal approach of Andrieu and Roberts (2009) since the later can equally be seen as an auxiliary variable approach. The answer was on the next page (!) as it is indeed a special case of Andrieu and Roberts (2009). Murray et al. (2006) also belongs to this group with a product-type importance sampling estimator, based on a sequence of tempered intermediaries… As noted by the authors, there is a whole spectrum of related methods in this area, some of which qualify as exact-approximate, inexact approximate and noisy versions.
Their main argument is to support importance sampling as the method of choice, including sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for large dimensional parameters. The auxiliary variable of Møller et al.'s (2006) is then part of the importance scheme. In the first toy example, a Poisson is opposed to a Geometric distribution, as in our ABC model choice papers, for which a multiple auxiliary variable approach dominates both ABC and Simon Wood's synthetic likelihood for a given computing cost. I did not spot which artificial choice was made for the Z(θ)'s in both models, since the constants are entirely known in those densities. A very interesting section of the paper is when envisioning biased approximations to the intractable density. If only because the importance weights are most often biased due to the renormalisation (possibly by resampling). And because the variance derivations are then intractable as well. However, due to this intractability, the paper can only approach the impact of those approximations via empirical experiments. This leads however to the interrogation on how to evaluate the validity of the approximation in settings where truth and even its magnitude are unknown… Cross-validation and bootstrap type evaluations may prove too costly in realistic problems. Using biased solutions thus mostly remains an open problem in my opinion.
The SMC part in the paper is equally interesting if only because it focuses on the data thinning idea studied by Chopin (2002) and many other papers in the recent years. This made me wonder why an alternative relying on a sequence of approximations to the target with tractable normalising constants could not be considered. A whole sequence of auxiliary variable completions sounds highly demanding in terms of computing budget and also requires a corresponding sequence of calibrations. (Now, ABC fares no better since it requires heavy simulations and repeated calibrations, while further exhibiting a damning missing link with the target density. ) Unfortunately, embarking upon a theoretical exploration of the properties of approximate SMC is quite difficult, as shown by the strong assumptions made in the paper to bound the total variation distance to the true target.
love-hate Metropolis algorithmPosted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics, Travel with tags auxiliary variable, doubly intractable problems, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, multimodality, normalising constant, parallel tempering, pseudo-marginal MCMC, The night of the hunter, unbiased estimation on January 28, 2016 by xi'an
Hyungsuk Tak, Xiao-Li Meng and David van Dyk just arXived a paper on a multiple choice proposal in Metropolis-Hastings algorithms towards dealing with multimodal targets. Called "A repulsive-attractive Metropolis algorithm for multimodality" [although I wonder why XXL did not jump at the opportunity to use the "love-hate" denomination!]. The proposal distribution includes a [forced] downward Metropolis-Hastings move that uses the inverse of the target density π as its own target, namely 1/{π(x)+ε}. Followed by a [forced] Metropolis-Hastings upward move which target is {π(x)+ε}. The +ε is just there to avoid handling ratios of zeroes (although I wonder why using the convention 0/0=1 would not work). And chosen as 10⁻³²³ by default in connection with R smallest positive number. Whether or not the "downward" move is truly downwards and the "upward" move is truly upwards obviously depends on the generating distribution: I find it rather surprising that the authors consider the same random walk density in both cases as I would have imagined relying on a more dispersed distribution for the downward move in order to reach more easily other modes. For instance, the downward move could have been based on an anti-Langevin proposal, relying on the gradient to proceed further down…
This special choice of a single proposal however simplifies the acceptance ratio (and keeps the overall proposal symmetric). The final acceptance ratio still requires a ratio of intractable normalising constants that the authors bypass by Møller et al. (2006) auxiliary variable trick. While the authors mention the alternative pseudo-marginal approach of Andrieu and Roberts (2009), they do not try to implement it, although this would be straightforward here: since the normalising constants are the probabilities of accepting a downward and an upward move, respectively. Those can easily be evaluated at a cost similar to the use of the auxiliary variables. That is,
– generate a few moves from the current value and record the proportion p of accepted downward moves;
– generate a few moves from the final proposed value and record the proportion q of accepted downward moves;
and replace the ratio of intractable normalising constants with p/q. It is not even clear that one needs those extra moves since the algorithm requires an acceptance in the downward and upward moves, hence generate Geometric variates associated with those probabilities p and q, variates that can be used for estimating them. From a theoretical perspective, I also wonder if forcing the downward and upward moves truly leads to an improved convergence speed. Considering the case when the random walk is poorly calibrated for either the downward or upward move, the number of failed attempts before an acceptance may get beyond the reasonable.
As XXL and David pointed out to me, the unusual aspect of the approach is that here the proposal density is intractable, rather than the target density itself. This makes using Andrieu and Roberts (2009) seemingly less straightforward. However, as I was reminded this afternoon at the statistics and probability seminar in Bristol, the argument for the pseudo-marginal based on an unbiased estimator is that w Q(w|x) has a marginal in x equal to π(x) when the expectation of w is π(x). In thecurrent problem, the proposal in x can extended into a proposal in (x,w), w P(w|x) whose marginal is the proposal on x.
If we complement the target π(x) with the conditional P(w|x), the acceptance probability would then involve
{π(x') P(w'|x') / π(x) P(w|x)} / {w' P(w'|x') / w P(w|x)} = {π(x') / π(x)} {w/w'}
so it seems the pseudo-marginal (or auxiliary variable) argument also extends to the proposal. Here is a short experiment that shows no discrepancy between target and histogram:
nozero=1e-300 #love-hate move move<-function(x){ bacwa=1;prop1=prop2=rnorm(1,x,2) while (runif(1)>{pi(x)+nozero}/{pi(prop1)+nozero}){ prop1=rnorm(1,x,2);bacwa=bacwa+1} while (runif(1)>{pi(prop2)+nozero}/{pi(prop1)+nozero}) prop2=rnorm(1,prop1,2) y=x if (runif(1)<pi(prop2)*bacwa/pi(x)/fowa){ y=prop2;assign("fowa",bacwa)} return(y)} #arbitrary bimodal target pi<-function(x){.25*dnorm(x)+.75*dnorm(x,mean=5)} #running the chain T=1e5 x=5*rnorm(1);luv8=rep(x,T) fowa=1;prop1=rnorm(1,x,2) #initial estimate while (runif(1)>{pi(x)+nozero}/{pi(prop1)+nozero}){ fowa=fowa+1;prop1=rnorm(1,x,2)} for (t in 2:T) luv8[t]=move(luv8[t-1])
exact ABCPosted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags ABC, evidence, exact ABC, pseudo-marginal MCMC, Sydney Harbour, unbiased estimation on January 21, 2016 by xi'an
Minh-Ngoc Tran and Robert Kohn have devised an "exact" ABC algorithm. They claim therein to remove the error due to the non-zero tolerance by using an unbiased estimator of the likelihood. Most interestingly, they start from the debiasing technique of Rhee and Glynn [also at the basis of the Russian roulette]. Which sums up as using a telescoping formula on a sequence of converging biased estimates. And cutting the infinite sum with a stopping rule.
"Our article proposes an ABC algorithm to estimate [the observed likelihood] that completely removes the error due to [the ABC] approximation…"
The sequence of biased but converging approximations is associated with a sequence of decreasing tolerances. The corresponding sequence of weights that determines the truncation in the series is connected to the decrease in the bias in an implicit manner for all realistic settings. Although Theorem 1 produces conditions on the ABC kernel and the sequence of tolerances and pseudo-sample sizes that guarantee unbiasedness and finite variance of the likelihood estimate. For a geometric stopping rule with rejection probability p, both tolerance and pseudo-sample size decrease as a power of p. As a side product the method also returns an unbiased estimate of the evidence. The overall difficulty I have with the approach is the dependence on the stopping rule and its calibration, and the resulting impact on the computing time of the likelihood estimate. When this estimate is used in a pseudo-marginal scheme à la Andrieu and Roberts (2009), I fear this requires new pseudo-samples at each iteration of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which then becomes prohibitively expensive. Later today, Mark Girolami pointed out to me that Anne-Marie Lyne [one of the authors of the Russian roulette paper] also considered this exact approach in her thesis and concluded at an infinite computing time.
SPA 2015 Oxford [my day #2]Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags British Rail, Keble College, Leamington Spa, Oxford, particle filters, pseudo-marginal MCMC, SPA 2015, systematic resampling, unbiased estimation, University of Oxford on July 17, 2015 by xi'an
Today I [barely made it on a delayed train from Leaminton Spa to Oxford as I] chaired my invited session at SPA 2015 on advanced MCMC methodology. The three speakers, Randal Douc, Mike Pitt and Matti Vihola, all gave talks related to the pseudo-marginal technique. For instance, Randal gave examples of guaranteed variance improvements by adding randomisation steps in the generation of the rv's behind the unbiased estimation of the likelihood function. Mike Pitt presented the paper I discussed a little while ago about evaluating the computing performances of pseudo-marginal approximations, with a fairly compelling perspective [I may have missed from the paper] on approximating the distribution on the approximation to the log-likelihood as a normal. Which led me to ponder at the ultimate version where the log-likelihood itself would get directly simulated in an MCMC algorithm bypassing the preliminary simulation of the parameters. Sounds a bit too fantasy-like to be of any use… Matti Vihola also presented recent results with Christophe Andrieu on comparing pseudo-marginal approximations, based on convex ordering properties. They included a domination result on ABC-MCM algorithms, as noted in a recent post. Which made me musing about the overall importance of unbiasedness in the global picture, where all we need are converging approximations, in fine.


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German-American Dieter Dengler discusses his service as an American naval pilot in the Vietnam War. Dengler also revisits the sites of his capture and eventual escape from the hands of the Vietcong, recreating many events for the camera.
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This film shows the disaster of the Kuwaitian oil fields in flames, with few interviews and no explanatory narration. Hell itself is presented in such beautiful sights and music that one has to be fascinated by it.
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The huge tar sands in Alberta are a potentially profitable resource, but the environmental impact could be heavy and long-term.
Like 'Baraka' and other documentaries which show images from the world, both good and bad, "Petropolis" does not need narration to tell you what is going on in Northern Alberta. The images alone do it justice. You only need to see the images of the tailings ponds, hot crude gushing from pipes into lakes and bleak, colourless landscapes to know that this is truly environmental damage on a mass scale.The film opens with the camera panning across the unspoiled wilderness of the boreal forests of Northern Alberta. Suddenly, the viewer is over an industrial wasteland like none other. The total size of the tar sands is 140,000 square kilometres. By comparison the area of England is 130,000. There are also plans to extensively expand the oil sands in the near future.The supplements on the DVD are interesting as well and perhaps should have been part of the 45 minute feature. There are interviews with local residents, a local doctor who speaks about increased cancer rates, a fisherman who talks of increased numbers of mutilated fish and residents of Fort McMurray who talk of the horrible toxic smell which now regularly covers the town.This is a good documentary for anyone interested in the impact of the oil sands on the ecology of North Alberta.
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Bulgarian drug addict who 'decapitated British grandmother' in Tenerife supermarket claims 'voices told him to kill, fight, hit and pray' as CCTV footage of attack is played in court
- Jennifer Mills-Westley, 60, was killed in Los Cristianos resort in May 2011
- Bulgarian Deyan Deyanov, 29, standing trial in Santa Cruz de Tenerife
- Claims voices 'direct' him how to act, telling him to 'kill, fight, hit, pray'
- Daughters shown harrowing CCTV footage of moment mother was killed
- Deyanov had taken on crack cocaine and LSD before arrest, court hears
Footage: CCTV footage of the fatal attack on 60-year-old Jennifer Mills-Westley was shown in court. After being shown the video, Deyan Deyanov, who is accused of beheading the grandmother, said it was 'a montage, a film' and claimed that he did not recognise himself in the images
The Bulgarian drug addict accused of beheading a British grandmother in a busy supermarket in Tenerife claimed voices told him to 'kill and fight', as CCTV footage of the horrific attack was played in court.
Deyan Deyanov declared to a packed courtroom that he was an 'angel of Jesus Christ', moments after the victim's heart-broken daughter covered her mouth in horror as the court was shown the chilling images.
Deyanov is charged with stabbing and decapitating 60-year-old Jennifer Mills-Westley with a nine-inch ham-slicing knife in front of horrified shoppers in the town of Los Cristianos on May 13 2011.
The blood-soaked 29-year-old was then tackled by security guards as he ran out of the supermarket brandishing the mother-of-two's severed head and shouting wildly.
But appearing in court for the first time today, the drug addict - who was high on crack cocaine and LSD when he was arrested - claimed he had no recollection of ever even living in Tenerife, let alone murdering Ms Mills-Westley.
Denying the murder, he said: 'I didn't commit this crime. I am a very peaceful person. I didn't cut off her head. I don't remember anything.'
Answering questions in Bulgarian with
the help of an interpreter, Deyanov told the court he is haunted by
voices which tell him how to act.
He claimed they were telling him he was 'an angel of Jesus Christ who is going to create a new Jerusalem'.
Scroll down for video
In the dock: Deyan Deyanov is accused of stabbing and beheading 60-year-old Jennifer Mills-Westley with a nine-inch ham-slicing knife in front of horrified shoppers in Los Cristianos on May 13 2011
Horror: Deyanov made the claims on the first day of his trial at the Provincial Court in Santa Cruz, attended by both of Ms Mills-Westley's daughters, Sarah Mears, 43 (left), and Samantha Gomes, 38 (right)
'They direct how I act, sometimes they say kill, fight, hit, pray,' he said.
He made the claims on the first day of his trial at the Provincial Court in Santa Cruz, attended by both of Ms Mills-Westley's daughters, Sarah Mears, 43, and Samantha Gomes, 38.
Also at the court were Jennifer Mills-Westley's brother John Smith, 63, and sister-in-law, Julie Smith, 62.
As the jury was shown 'tough' CCTV footage relating to the attack, Mrs Gomes covered her mouth in horror and stared into the distance.
Giving evidence later, Mrs Mears said: 'All I want to see is justice done for my mum today.'
watching the CCTV footage, Deyanov said it was 'a montage, a film' and
claimed that he did not recognise himself in the images.
The defendant said he had been using crack cocaine and LSD before his arrest, but had no memory of living in Tenerife.
Asked if he knew he was in Tenerife after being brought there from a psychiatric unit in Seville on the Spanish mainland, he said: 'I have just found out.'
Heartbroken family: Samantha (third left) and Sarah Mears (right), daughters of beheaded grandmother Jennifer Mills-Westley, arrive with other relatives at the Provincial Court in Santa Cruz de Tenerife for the trial of their mother's alleged killer
VIDEO The voices tell me to kill: Beheading suspect in court
Business as usual: The shop where Mrs Mills-Westley was attacked was trading again less than 24 hours after the killing
Amateur footage: After watching the CCTV footage, Deyanov said it was 'a montage, a film' and claimed that he did not recognise himself in the images
Tackled to the ground: He also denied that he had lived in Wales, where he was sectioned in the summer of 2010 under the Mental Health Act at Glan Clwyd Hospital
Happy family: Ms Mills-Westley at her daughter Sarah's wedding
He also denied that he had lived in Wales, where he was sectioned in the summer of 2010 under the Mental Health Act at Glan Clwyd Hospital.
Later, the jury was shown two 'ham knives' allegedly used in the attack. Both were 22cm long, and one was visibly bent and bloodied.
Prosecutor Angel Garcia Rodriguez told the court of the moment the frenzied attack took place inside a Chinese-owned shop on Avenida Juan Carlos.
Jennifer Mills-Westley was described by her family as someone who was 'full of life, generous of heart and would do anything for anyone'.
The 60-year-old was a mother of two daughters - Sarah and Sam - and grandmother of five who was living life to the full in the 'eternal spring' of the Canary Islands.
Originally from Norwich, Norfolk, she had worked as a road safety officer with Norfolk County Council.
In that role, Ms Mills-Westley taught schoolchildren cycling safety training and she was described by colleagues as 'popular and well-respected'.
She had retired and settled in Tenerife, where she owned two apartments in the Port Royale complex on the hillside edge of Los Cristianos.
One two-bedroom flat was rented out while she lived in the other and had been resident there for at least 10 years.
Neighbours described her as 'quiet and peaceful and always immaculately dressed'.
With one of her daughters living in France and the other in Norwich, she enjoyed travelling to pay visits to her family.
In a poignant tribute following her death, her ex-husband Peter told The Mail on Sunday she was a 'wonderful woman, a brilliant mother and I loved her dearly.'
Mr Garcia Rodriguez said: 'The accused approached Jennifer Mills-Westley, who he did not know and who was shopping, attacking and striking her repeatedly with a knife in her back and neck until she was completely decapitated.'
He said the prosecution was seeking for Deyanov to be sentenced to 20 years in a psychiatric unit.
Witness Davide Balsamo, an Italian who has lived in Tenerife for five years, described the moment he stumbled upon the horrific scene coming out of a hardware store.
He said: 'I saw a guy walking around with a head in his hand.
'I came out of the shop and suddenly I saw him come off the kerb, completely covered in blood.
'I ran up to him and hit him with all my strength using my motorcycle helmet and knocked him silly.'
Asked if the defendant was the man he had struck, he said 'yes', adding that his hair was a bit longer now.
Ms Mills-Westley, originally from Norwich, Norfolk, had been living in Tenerife after retiring from her job as a road safety officer with Norfolk County Council.
Her daughters, Sarah and Sam, said last week they will attend the trial to come 'face to face' with her killer and hope to banish memories which have been 'shrouded by the brutality of her death'.
In a joint statement they said: 'On Friday May 13 2011 our lives changed irrevocably when we heard the shocking news that our much loved mother had been brutally murdered in Tenerife.
'Now, nearly two years later, we will come face to face with the man who took her life that day and relive the heart-breaking details of the events leading up to her untimely death.
'Going back to Tenerife not only is a daunting prospect but it will reopen our wounds.
'We have to hope that justice will prevail so we can lay our mother to rest, and remember her in happier times rather than the memories we currently have - memories which are shrouded by the brutality of her death.'
On trial: The defendant said he had been using crack cocaine and LSD before his arrest, but had no memory of living in Tenerife
Drug-addled drifter: Deyanov was a drifter who had lived in Tenerife and Wales where in 2010 he was sectioned under the mental health act
Deyanov reportedly had a history of mental illness which had seen him sectioned in the UK, where he had lived, and in the Canary Islands.
In the summer of 2010 he had been sectioned under the Mental Health Act at Glan Clwyd Hospital in North Wales.
He had been released from a local hospital in February 2011 following psychiatric treatment, according to regional newspaper La Opinion.
And a Spanish judge had issued a search and arrest order for him before the killing for his alleged involvement in a fight where he appeared to be on drugs.
His defence is expected to argue that he was not criminally responsible for Ms Mills-Westley's death because of his mental condition.
VIDEO Mills-Westley family arrive at court to hear case opening
Victim's home: The Port Royale complex in Las Christianos where Ms Mills-Westley lived
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text: This listing is no longer available or has been sold. Find Another One Others Looked At... Federal AM22 3250 Rnd 22LR 40Gr SELLER: Nashville Gun Shop 1 $349.99 1000 FEDERAL AE 9mm AE9DP100 115GR S&H $... SELLER: Nashville Gun Shop 1 $249.99 1500rds AGUILA 22LR STND VEL. SP 40GR LR... SELLER: Patriots Ammo LLC 1 $129.00 5,000 Rounds CCI Mini Mag .22LR #0031(CA... SELLER: Patriots Ammo LLC 1 $499.99 250rds CCI Maxi-Mag .22 Win Mag 30 HP TN... SELLER: Patriots Ammo LLC 1 $98.00 3500 Rounds of CCI Stingers 32 GR CP HP SELLER: Sooperman8 0 $829.95 Non Guns Ammunition Remington Golden Saber | 796 | 0 | Lc | 546.8763ms Remington Golden Saber 380 For Sale from Arego | Positive feedback: 100% View | | 504 Completed Sales View Sellers Items This item is no longer available. /UserImages/2310/950024553 5505121.jpg Description Shipping and Payment More Info New Case of Remington Golden Saber, 380 Auto, 102gr BJHP, 20 boxes of 25 bullets. Ships Ground only. See Description Trades Accepted: No We are a Master Kimber, and Browning Custom Shop dealer. Volume dealer with NightForce. Direct with Sako, Beretta, Eotech, H.S Precision, Bushmaster, Zeiss, Black Hills, Volquartsen,and Swarovski. Perfection dealer for Glock. Guns we list on this site are guns we actually have in our store. Our intent is to make you a satisfied customer. Condition: New In Box Brand: Remington Location: AR Share Item Item #: 950024553 This item is no longer available. Price: Shipping: $25.00 (or Arrange local transfer) Accepted Payment Methods: Returns: No Returns Arego Seller Since: Dec. 2001 Seller Level: Verified This seller is an FFL City: Hot Spirngs State: AR Your Recently Viewed Items