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Fall of the Pharoah: How Mubarak survived 30 years to crisis to be ousted by the people
Hosni Mubarak as a young Air Force Lieutenant taken before the revolution that deposed King Farouk in 1952. Mubarak rose through the Air Forces ranks and eventually was appointed as vice-president
He survived assassination attempts and wave after wave of Mideast crises, a solid ally of the West whose stable image reassured many Egyptians.
Hosni Mubarak ended his presidency as a symbol of what was wrong with Egypt: the repression, the corruption, the lost hopes of a swelling, impoverished class.
Mubarak, in power for nearly three decades, was such a fixture that his exit from power was hard to conceive for most Egyptians just a short time ago.
Year after year, as the president aged and ailed, people watched his scripted appearances on television - the suit and tie, the wagging finger, the 'father of the nation' aura.
After protests and upheaval swept Egypt, Mubarak sought to portray himself as the only obstacle to chaos, as he had done successfully so many times in the past. Yet attacks by his supporters, who roamed central Cairo with impunity, suggested that violence lay at the core of his system.
As he clung to power, the status quo he personified became increasingly loathed.
And as it turns out, beneath the stern facade of authority, the 82-year-old was a figure in steep decline, unable to check boiling currents of popular fury, or harness the history unfolding in his nation of 80 million - the largest in the Arab world.
A former pilot and air force general with a combative, stubborn streak, he took tentative steps toward democratic reform early in his presidency but pulled back toward the dictatorial style that eventually propelled the protests that began on January 25.
Assessments described Mubarak as a man deeply suspicious of reform. A 2009 cable from the US Embassy in Cairo, released by the secret-sharing WikiLeaks website, called him 'a tried and true realist, innately cautious and conservative,' and with 'little time for idealistic goals.'
Mubarak was long credited by his Western allies with keeping the peace with Israel and keeping Egypt free of the grip of Islamic extremism.
The Egyptian President Anwar Sadat (left) waves to a crowd as Vice-President Hosni Mubarak (R) laughs beside him in a convertible vehicle. Mubarak came to office after Sadat was assassinated during a military parade in October 1981
In a searing experience that defined his outlook, he was sitting on a military viewing stand next to his predecessor, Anwar Sadat, when Islamic militants assassinated Sadat in 1981. A week later, with Egypt in trauma, Mubarak was president.
He lacked the charisma of his two predecessors, the peacemaker Sadat and the Arab nationalist, Gamal Abdel Nasser, and served in their shadows.
He struggled with the problems that have bedevilled the Arab world: choking corruption, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and fighting militancy. Economic reforms spurred growth, but the fruits trickled only to a few.
He carved out a niche as a key negotiator on the Palestinian crisis, bolstered by billions in U.S. aid. He engineered Egypt's return to the Arab fold after nearly a decade out in the cold over its 1979 peace treaty with Israel.
Early on, Mubarak
put down an insurgency by Muslim extremists, whose ranks had produced
Sadat's assassins and some of the future al Qaida leaders.
In the 1990s, he fought hard against another resurgence of Muslim militants whose attacks included the slaughter of dozens of foreign tourists at the temple city of Luxor.
Family: President Hosni Mubarak (second right) and First lady Suzanne (centre) pose for a family picture with their two sons Gamal (right) and Alaa (second left) and the latter's wife Heidi al-Sakher (left) in the Ittihadeya Palace in Cairo
Eli Shaked, who served as Israel's ambassador to Egypt from 2003-2005, described Mubarak as 'a strong presence, not charismatic but with a heavy body like a fighter bomber, and very level-headed.'
Mohammed Hosni Mubarak was born on May 4, 1928, in the village of Kafr el-Moseilha in the Nile delta province of Menoufia. His family, like Sadat's and Nasser's, was lower middle class.
joining the air force in 1950, Mubarak moved up the ranks as a bomber
pilot and instructor and rose to leadership positions.
He earned nationwide fame as commander of the air force during the 1973 Middle East war, and was vice president when Sadat was assassinated - an attack Mubarak escaped with only a minor hand injury.
In his early days, Mubarak made popular moves that held up promise of a more open society, including freeing 1,500 politicians, journalists and clerics jailed during Sadat's last months in office.
Sole survivor: Mubarak poses with the late Yasser Arafat (right), chairman of Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (centre) during a mini Arab-summit in Baghdad in October 1988
But hopes for broader reform dimmed.
Mubarak was re-elected in staged, one-man referendums in which he
routinely won more than 90 per cent approval.
He became more aloof, carefully choreographing his public appearances, and his authoritarian governance, buttressed by harsh emergency laws, fuelled resentment.
Age took its toll on the president, who was once an avid squash player with a consistent style that matched his personality.
He became hard of hearing, and was so devastated by the death of a 12-year-old grandson in 2009 that he cancelled a trip to the United States. Last year, he had gallbladder surgery in Germany.
Egypt's influence in the Middle East, meanwhile, waned as the militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah and their patron, Iran, gained momentum and followers. The growing profile of Turkey, a democracy led by an Islam-inspired government, also chipped away at Egypt's heavyweight stature in the region.
Failing power: Mubarak with Obama in 2009. By then his grip was already slipping
High profile: Mubarak with the late Princess Diana in 1992
In 2005, Mubarak held the country's
first contested presidential election, an event marred by charges of
voter fraud and intimidation.
He retrenched when opponents made gains in ensuing parliamentary elections, launching a harsh campaign of arrests against the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's biggest and best organised opposition group.
Before the protests began, Mubarak had been silent on whether he intended to seek re-election in September. But the quick rise of his son, Gamal, through the ruling party caused immense anxiety.
fear that Mubarak was grooming Gamal, a wealthy businessman, to succeed
him, left many Egyptians feeling trapped in the past, deprived of
change and renewal.
Then, the uprising in Tunisia delivered an electrifying message: an old order can be ousted.
Mubarak initially responded to
protests by saying he would not seek another term, and his government
said Gamal Mubarak would not run, either.
But the president rejected demands that he step down immediately, telling ABC News that he'd like to leave but feared the country would sink deeper into chaos without him.
It was a persuasive argument for 29 years, but in 2011 it was overwhelmed by the cries of huge crowds in Cairo's Tahrir Square: 'Leave! Leave!'.
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Spooktacular 5K 2016
Click HERE for a Spooktacular 5K form.
Picnic In The Park
The Wabash County Chamber of Commerce would like to extend an invitation to the Fourth Annual Chamber Member Picnic in the Park being held on Thursday, June 9th, 2016. This event will be an opportunity to visit with other Chamber members as well as the 2016 Chamber Scholarship Recipients. Please plan to be at the […]
After Hour Mixer
Join us for an After Hour Mixer on June 23rd from 4:30-6pm. It is a fun and casual get together for our members. Refreshments will be served. Chamber Chunk-A-Change is $375 CASH! Must be present to win.
New Members
Stephen G. Sawyer, Attorney at Law Farrar & Brian, P.C. Oakview Villa Eclectic Boutique Willy's Carburetor & Dyno Shop Premium Fitness Scoops Sweet Shoppe The Cellular Connection


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Every NFL player is prepared to start if called upon and it's likely every one believes they can at any point. So it really shouldn't be surprising to hear Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick express confidence in his 2014 prospects as a NFL starter.
Vick a 2014 starter?
- comment


text:
One of my dear Internet friends sent me a beautiful article that claimed it was written by a 90-year-old woman named Regina Brett and submitted to the editors of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer newspaper in Ohio. But that's not exactly true. Regina is hardly some old crone who sucks the chocolate off peanut M&Ms that are placed on a crocheted lace doily. No, this very talented lady who is close to my age and just so happens to be one of the best columnists in the Midwest.
She's a true character. She has overcome breast cancer, raised a child as a single parent and written some dandy books, "God Never Blinks: 50 Lessons For Life's Little Detours" and "Be The Miracle: 50 Lessons For Making The Impossible Possible." She's won a lot of awards, too, claiming, among other things, "Growing old beats the alternative. Dying young only looks good in the movies."
But as sometimes happens to those of us in this business, somebody found a picture of a real old lady, pasted it with the famous story of "45 Life Lessons" that Regina originally wrote back in 2006, and it has been sent to Snopes.com hundreds of times as a result. Her list is one of my favorite columns so allow me to share what I have gotten in four emails in the past few weeks:
* * *
To celebrate growing older, I once wrote the 45 lessons life taught me. It is the most requested column I've ever written. My odometer rolled over to 90 in August, so here is the column once more:
1. Life isn't fair, but it's still good.
2. When in doubt, just take the next small step.
3. Life is too short to waste time hating anyone.
4. Your job won't take care of you when you are sick. Your friends and parents will. Stay in touch.
5. Pay off your credit cards every month.
6. You don't have to win every argument. Agree to disagree.
7. Cry with someone. It's more healing than crying alone.
8. It's OK to get angry with God. He can take it.
9. Save for retirement starting with your first paycheck.
10. When it comes to chocolate, resistance is futile.
11. Make peace with your past so it won't screw up the present.
12. It's OK to let your children see you cry.
13. Don't compare your life to others. You have no idea what their journey is all about.
14. If a relationship has to be a secret, you shouldn't be in it.
15. Everything can change in the blink of an eye. But don't worry; God never blinks.
16. Take a deep breath. It calms the mind.
17. Get rid of anything that isn't useful, beautiful or joyful.
18. Whatever doesn't kill you really does make you stronger.
19. It's never too late to have a happy childhood. But the second one is up to you and no one else.
20. When it comes to going after what you love in life, don't take no for an answer.
21. Burn the candles, use the nice sheets, wear the fancy lingerie. Don't save it for a special occasion. Today is special.
22. Over prepare, then go with the flow.
23. Be eccentric now. Don't wait for old age to wear purple.
24. The most important sex organ is the brain.
25. No one is in charge of your happiness but you.
26. Frame every so-called disaster with these words 'In five years, will this matter?'
27. Always choose life.
28. Forgive everyone everything.
29. What other people think of you is none of your business.
30. Time heals almost everything. Give time time.
31. However good or bad a situation is, it will change.
32. Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
33. Believe in miracles.
34. God loves you because of who God is, not because of anything you did or didn't do.
35. Don't audit life. Show up and make the most of it now.
36. Growing old beats the alternative -- dying young.
37. Your children get only one childhood.
38. All that truly matters in the end is that you loved.
39. Get outside every day. Miracles are waiting everywhere.
40. If we all threw our problems in a pile and saw everyone else's, we'd grab ours back.
41. Envy is a waste of time. You already have all you need.
42. The best is yet to come...
43. No matter how you feel, get up, dress up and show up.
44. Yield.
45. Life isn't tied with a bow, but it's still a gift."
The purported emails also state: "It is estimated 93% won't forward this. If you are one of the 7% who will, forward this with the title 7%"
"I'm in the 7%.
"Remember that I will always share my spoon with you. Friends are the family we chose for ourselves."
May 27, 2016
As a past victim of domestic violence, I am acutely aware of how serious this problem is. I am sorry that the Stone family has to have their personal drama played out to the world at 5:00, 5:30, ... (click for more)
I wanted to wish you all a wonderful Memorial Day Weekend. Memorial Day has always been a special holiday to me since I was born on Decoration Day, now known as Memorial Day (May 30) ... (click for more)
Attorney John Cavett said it is ridiculous "to suggest that she was the perpetrator." Thank God that someone stated how I perceive this drama. If Bobby Stone had not crossed reasonable ... (click for more)
As a past victim of domestic violence, I am acutely aware of how serious this problem is. I am sorry that the Stone family has to have their personal drama played out to the world at 5:00, 5:30, and 6:00 every evening. While the public is being entertained by the drama of all this, the real problems in this city are not getting the attention they deserve. The shootings ... (click for more)
I wanted to wish you all a wonderful Memorial Day Weekend. Memorial Day has always been a special holiday to me since I was born on Decoration Day, now known as Memorial Day (May 30) before we started celebrating on the last Monday of May; prior to 1971 it was always celebrated on May 30. My grandfather, who was a WWII veteran shot while on Iowa Jima, always ... (click for more)
The attorney for advisor to Mayor Andy Berke Lacie Stone said she has been thrust into the spotlight, but said she is "the victim of an unprovoked attack" by her husband, Bobby Stone. Attorney John Cavett said it is ridiculous "to suggest that she was the perpetrator." Mr. Stone is facing charges of domestic assault and vandalism. Attorney Cavett said, "It is unfortunate ... (click for more)
The Cleveland City School board unanimously voted Thursday afternoon to offer the job of director of Schools to Dr. Russell Dyer. Dr. Dyer serves as the chief of staff of schools in Collierville, Tn. If Dr. Dyer accepts the school board's contract, he will be paid $132,500 a year. After contract negotiations, the board plans for Dr. Dyer to start at Cleveland City ... (click for more)
MURFREESBORO – It's one thing to win one state championship in track. It becomes a tougher challenge to repeat and at times impossible to even think about a three-peat. But that's what the Signal Mountain Lady Eagles did here at the Dean A. Hayes Track & Soccer Stadium on the campus of Middle Tennessee State University early Thursday evening. Signal Mountain ... (click for more)
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. – The magic number Baylor's softball team has in mind now is 10. After polishing off bitter rival Girls Preparatory School – a seemingly constant opponent at TSSAA's Spring Fling – by 8-2 Thursday in the Division II-AA winner's bracket final, the Lady Red Raiders are zeroed in on a game that could produce their 10 th state championship. "It ... (click for more)


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The Minnesota Department of Commerce regulates state-chartered financial institutions and other financial services.
Supervising and examining state banks, trust companies, credit unions, savings banks, other financial services companies and consumer credit companies to determine their financial solvency and responsiveness to business and consumer credit needs.
Writing rules and recommending laws to be enacted under which financial institutions and consumer credit licensees operate and fairly enforcing those laws, rules and principles of safe and sound operation.
The Financial Institutions Division is accredited as a bank supervisory agency by the Conference of State Bank Supervisors and conducts on-site examinations in institutions supervised by the Department of Commerce.
Privacy Laws and Reporting Financial Abuse
Minnesota Department of Commerce Guidance on Privacy Laws and the Reporting of Financial Abuse of Older Adults
As the state's regulator for state banks, credit unions, and other financial services providers, the Minnesota Department of Commerce routinely issues bulletins as well as legislative updates and any important announcements related to the industry.
Minnesota Debt Settlement Service Providers Report (.pdf)
*Information related to Broker Dealers and Investment Advisers can be found in Securities, Franchises & Subdivided Lands.


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Light filtering contact lens method
Image Number 2 for
United States Patent #5846457
The invention relates to a light-absorbing contact lens and process for preparing same. A contact lens is tinted with colorants which provide desired spectral transmittance characteristics over the tinted portion of the lens. The contact lens provides transmittance of incident radiation having a wavelength from 500 to 700 nm which is variable and wavelength-dependent. The lens of this invention also preferably filters out ultraviolet and blue light (wavelengths from 200 to about 500 nm). Various transmittance patterns for wavelengths from 500 to 700 nm are obtainable by appropriate choice of colorant combinations; the transmittance curve in this region and the colorants to achieve the desired transmittance characteristics are chosen to fill particular needs of a wearer as for example limiting transmittance of visible light in high intensity light environments. Lenses according to the invention may provide unique benefits for use with particular applications such as sporting activities, recreational activities, or the like. Both hard and soft contact lenses are disclosed, and various examples of specialized lenses for particular applications are disclosed.
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University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Behaviour, Ecology & Evolution Seminar Series > Inclusive fitness versus multi-level selection: equivalent approaches to social evolution?
Inclusive fitness versus multi-level selection: equivalent approaches to social evolution?
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This talk examines the relationship between two alternative approaches to the evolution of social behaviour: inclusive fitness theory, and multi-level selection. A growing consensus in evolutionary biology maintains that these theories are not really competitors, despite what was once thought, but are in fact 'equivalent'. I argue that this is correct in a sense, in that it is usually possible to find a correct expression for gene frequency change using either approach. However this only shows that the approaches are predictively equivalent, not that they are causally equivalent. In general in science, predictive equivalent is not usually taken to imply equivalence tout court; and I argue that this general moral applies to the case at hand. I examine a number of examples where either inclusive fitness or multi-level selection seems more 'causally appropriate' than the other. I end with a discussion of the suggestion that inclusive fitness is preferable on the grounds that it preserves the 'individual as maximizing agent' analogy.
This talk is part of the Behaviour, Ecology & Evolution Seminar Series series.
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if you want to get into OS development, get a good book on systems programming, and write an emulator, compiler, and relocatable loader. it may take a year in C/C++. its typically a 3rd year college course in software engineering.
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Posted by Norman Barrows on 14 May 2016 - 05:28 AM
if you want to get into OS development, get a good book on systems programming, and write an emulator, compiler, and relocatable loader. it may take a year in C/C++. its typically a 3rd year college course in software engineering.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 14 May 2016 - 04:04 AM
>> I've implemented John Chapman's Pseudo lens-flare in my OpenGL project and the result somewhat looks like this:
you are aware that lens flare is a real world graphic artifact of images viewed though lenses, right?
and that it should not occur unless the image is viewed though a lens, IE on a view screen, and never when as seen by the human eye.
but it does look cool - doesn't it? <g>.
FYI, the characteristics of a lens flare (shape etc) are a function of the geometry of the lens in question. so two different lenses will produce two different flares under identical conditions.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 14 May 2016 - 04:00 AM
>> But yeah, looking up color is implemented by finding the nearest color point in terms of Euclidean distance
3d space color mapping is the standard method. i was using it too back in the mid to late 1990's.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 14 May 2016 - 03:32 AM
punishing that does not make sense in the context of the game world is an immersion breaker and bad design.
if you shoot a goodguy, cops chasing you make sense. you health going down does not. that's a "bad designer! no twinkie!" if i ever saw one.
you should try to make something not possible due to circumstances that seem wholely reasonable and logical in the context of the game world. so you don't break immersion.
so what you want is an EMP gun, which does nothing to humans, except perhaps with repeated exposure at max power for decades on end. (the whole EM fields and cancer thing - IE don't build your house under high voltage power lines).
Posted by Norman Barrows on 12 May 2016 - 11:47 AM
>> All I know is locking an entire thread while another executes is a bad solution
when its time to render, lock required update data, copy it, unlock. then render as usual, using your copy of the current game state.
i don't think anything else is going to be faster. you need all that required game state data to render. not doing it all at once just adds more locks.
DOD layout of the data to be copied will minimize lock times.
you have two threads, you want them to both scream. one needs info from the other from time to time. so you lock it as infrequently as possible, and get the info as quickly as possible, then immediately unlock. that's about the best you can do.
the other option is some sort of intermediate buffer, where update places a copy of its data when it changes, and render grabs the current data when it renders. but then update must lock and unlock the buffer, as must render. but this does mean update wont stall while waiting for render to copy its data. of course you could still gets stalls if update was ready to write to the buffer, but render was still reading. update will most likely be orders of magnitude faster than render, so update stalled while render reads the buffer is much more likely.
in the end, you go with what has the fewest locks and the fastest data transfer, for lowest overall execution time.
and you'll probably want to do as much on the update side as possible, since render runs slower. OTOH, render is the one who needs the info, so odds are that's not possible without just slowing things down overall.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 11 May 2016 - 06:17 AM
>> Have you tried playing, and analyzing the zigzag game
this should have been done before you even started your game, or the moment zigzag came out, while your game was still under development.
>> Not sure what the factor is...that makes zigzag so fun...
Posted by Norman Barrows on 11 May 2016 - 06:00 AM
>> and I want them to load from the closest to the player first
why? i would think that you would need:
1. all possibly visible chunks in ram,
2. and then from those you would generate a list of possibly visible objects in those chunks,
3. which you would then frustum cull and draw.
but the order or distance of the possibly visible chunks is irrelevant, as you must check them all for possibly visible objects.
>> Thing is, there's no magic algorithm that could simply retrieve the objects within a range without any iterations.
except bucket sort, and then you still have to deal with empty buckets and more than one object at the same range (IE more than 1 in a single bucket)
OP: definitely sounds like the standard container you're using just ain't gonna cut it. i'd fix that first. then if its still not fast enough, check into spatial partitioning methods such as octrees. sometimes you have to break a few eggs to make real mayonnaise, and sometimes you don't. fix your containers first, and wait and see on octrees - you may or may not need them. you won't really know until you fix those containers.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 10 May 2016 - 12:27 AM
>> I took most of unnecessary things out so the games were stripped to basics.
less is not always more.
>> However, my games end up pretty boring, despite having sweet graphics.
not as sweet as zigzag. (personal opinion)
>> Why do all my simple games end up being boring?
perhaps because they are too simple?
>> Why is my game, the upper one, so boring?
hard to say without playing both games, but it appears to be simpler - perhaps too simple.
>> Who says it boring? Im saying that...any the low download numbers :-)
i'd say they have a better name and the game looks like more fun based just on the screenshots, that could account in part for your download numbers, with the rest accountable to lack of time since release of your title (IE undiscovered as Nanoha says), and lack of marketing on your part.
never try to go head to head with the competition until you have the superior product. you'll just lose. that's a basic rule of thumb in any business.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 09 May 2016 - 11:39 PM
odds are you can get father than just python and java in 4 years, with a combo of standard CS associate degree studies + individual study on topics of interest (such as game development).
if you want to be making money in 4 years,it will be easier doing so with apps (non-game programs) than with games. you say you want to make apps (which to me means business apps - which made me wonder why this thread was even on gamedev at all), but you sound like you want to make games (game apps?). i'll assume you mean you want to make games, not business apps for smartfones.
you'll have three types of useful resources, info on languages/programing in general, such as books on python programming, info on how to write games (often available in a few choices of language), and info on the math and physics used in games.
overall, your plan sounds quite solid. you've secured a position that will maintain you while you learn. you will also be receiving formal training. free time for individual study may be an issue. a career, school, and learning game development will leave little time for anything else. and of course there are the hazards of military duty. so do us all a favor and don't get shot, or we'll never get to play any of the cool games you're going to write. Ok? <g>.
exactly what to learn will depend on what kind of games you want to build. the game type(s) will determine your language options. a good basic knowledge of algos and data structures will be required, and should be part of your 2nd year CS courses. you'll also want to know Cartesian coordinates and basic trig (and linear algebra if you want to do 3D). none of that will be covered in a CS degree. on the physics side, you'll want to learn basic physics and mechanics - at least enough to use a physics engine library correctly. this too will not be found in a CS degree. graphics programming may or may not be part of your formal training, if so it may just be 2d vector graphics. so math, physics, and graphics will be areas for individual study along side your formal CS courses.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 09 May 2016 - 10:32 PM
>> it still might not give a true picture since corners are being cut here and there
then you are not prototyping everything you should or to the depth/degree you should. prototypes should move you from a state of uncertainty to a state of absolute certainty going forward (at least with respect to that which was tested).
>> So rapid prototyping might as well be developing a full draft prototype, which one can then refactor, refine and rewrite algorithms
you want to test only what you must to determine feasibility - no more - no less. however its not unheard of for a prototype to become the core code of the final game.
ideally, pen and paper analysis and prototyping when necessary will allow you to choose the correct non-optimized algos for the use case in question so refinement or rewriting is unnecessary - unless you must later optimize - as indicated by profiling. note that this applies to selection of existing algos, not inventing new ones.
>> and this is close to what I'm currently doing... except its taking too much time than estimated
the longest i've ever allotted to a prototype was a week on three occasions: a realistic airship flight model derived from scratch using the laws of chemistry and physics,
hierarchical A* pathfinding for entities of arbitrary size, and skinned meshes. nothing else has ever been more than 2-3 days max. the whole idea is to get exactly the answers you need as quick and dirty as you can - and nothing more. its a prototype - a testbed - it doesn't have to be release grade code. its just has to work well enough to prove or disprove what you're trying to figure out. never spend more time on a prototype than you must. if it pans out, you can then refactor, or rewrite, or cleanup the code. sounds to me like your prototype is too big. if you figured it might take more than a week, odds are you're testing too much at once, or perhaps some things you don't have to. if you figured it should take a week or less, and that time has passed, you should have a reasonable idea of how long til you can get it going. if you find yourself unable to say how long to test something - you've moved past mere prototyping and into the area of research, where there are no clocks. invention knows no schedule but its own. if this is the case, you're probably misleading yourself if you think you can invent according to some schedule or timetable. its been tried in the past on projects both large and small, and seldom works. the Apollo moonshot being the last case that comes to mind where they actually managed to invent everything new in the time required. a couple military projects by various nations over the years may qualify as well.
>> I don't have that luxury of time
to do the estimate or to make the game once you adjust you estimate and see how long it may actually take in reality? multiplying your best guess by two or five or ten takes almost zero time, so you must mean that the result is a game which may in reality take longer than you can afford to spend. so be it. in that case, the scope of the project is simply too big for you to undertake by yourself with the time you have available. you'll need help to proceed (IE a team), or will need to select a smaller scope project to pursue. such is life in the lone wolf lane. i could build incredible games with unlimited time, resources, and manpower at my disposal, but i don't have those those, so i build what i can than can be competitive in its category.
>> But I prefer long stretches of day job working and long stretches of project development. That way my focus is full and unbroken during project development phase,
understandable. long uninterrupted stretches of time are the most important thing to a gamedev, especially the lone wolf. until you can quit you day job for real forever, you'll have to suffer life interfering with your development time. choose your priorities wisely. having a life and being a successful game entrepreneur are often mutually exclusive activities.
>> Still I do run out of savings (and my wife does her bit to help out anyway). Because the stretches project development tends to go longer I do run out, but its a catch 22 situation
like i said before you need to secure a source of income to support yourself during development. IE you have to work a job (or whatever) AND build games AT THE SAME TIME. otherwise, you'll just keep running out of money. the one thing you can be sure of on any engineering project which is not a repeat (and even sometimes when it is) is that it will take longer than planned. that's life and murphy's law. so you can't work for X amount of time and save Y dollars to fund Z hours of development to accomplish goal A, cause Z is always longer than expected. however, you might save up enough for 2Z, 5Z. or 10Z hours of development, while still estimating only Z hours required, in which case you might not run out of money. if no matter how you juggle the numbers its just takes too long to save up the money to get more than enough time to do the dev work, then your project is simply too big for you to take on alone. i could build a better skyrim than skyrim, but i couldn't do it alone, unless i had about 30 years
>> maybe, just maybe if they are way more advanced than me and know the maths and the right algorithm straight out (so don't need to experiment - make mistakes through dead ends like I did several times) then yes, they can do a draft prototype in 1 months )
ok, this explains a bit. you're not inventing new algos. you're trying different ones. never sit down to the keyboard until you know what to write. research your algos first. choose the best, implement it, move on. if unsure, prototype. this should almost never be necessary for selecting between known algos for a specific use case. prototyping is most properly used to test that which is untested by all - not just by you personally. IE to boldly go where no one has gone before, not to reinvent the wheel. and learn your math and physics before trying to implement. when you're at the keyboard, its time to type - not time to figure out what to type. you should figure out all that before you decide whether you'll even build the game or not. you can't judge if its worth your time until you know how long it will take - which means you need to know the algos and math to be used. if you try to estimate with no idea of the math or algos to use, i'd say off by a factor of 10 is a damn lucky guess - i'm surprised you weren't off by more.
obviously you must know the math and algos to be used BEFORE you can get any kind of idea about how long anything is going to take. and LONG before you sit down to code. you have to do that before you can even vet a potential title for feasibility.
in brief the process should be as follows:
2. prototype only as absolutely required.
3. vet for feasibility
4. code.
you seem to have skipped step 1 altogether, are going way overboard on step 2 seeking the answer to step 1, are having difficulty with step 3 due to skipping step 1 and wasting too much time on step 2 trying to get the answers you should have gotten in step 1, and thus you never reach that happy place known as step 4 - where you can code with confidence.
its now obvious your fundamental problem is lack of up front research.
fix that, and everything will become MUCH MUCH easier.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 09 May 2016 - 08:37 PM
>> Like Briandigitalis points out, a small or single person team can't afford to hire all specialists (business, Artists, Extra programmers) required. I wish I can hire all the business-risk analyst, but for obvious reasons I can't afford to do that. So the next thing to do is to improvise which is do most aspect - meant for specialist - on my own
same here. such is the life of the lone wolf developer. but you don't have to be a big or rich studio to be good at estimating - you just have to be good at estimating. although a rich studio might be able to contract such skills.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 08 May 2016 - 07:04 AM
from your post it seems you have now learned though trial and error, most of the vetting process for title selection.
i'll just address them as they appear in your post.
"This question is more relevant if the project involves some few untested concepts."
ok, first off, there really should be no question marks left by the time its time to finally say go or no go. so as part of the vetting process, you must rapid prototype everything you are unsure of. penciling algo's just ain't gonna cut it. so your whole problem of the project taking longer because you had to re-design cause your original untested design didn't work goes away. OTOH, you vetting time goes up, cause you must now rapid prototype everything you've never done before. you may spend a month protoyping stuff for a game, only to discover its not a good candidate. better to waste a month than a year or 2 or 3 or 4. so now you know what to do, and you'll never have untested concepts in your projects anymore. cause they won't even become candidates until they've been tested. simple huh? more work? sure. you didn't think succeeding would be easy did you?
>> it took much much longer than was estimated (~ 9-10 X estimated time)
easy way to fix that: do your standard estimate like you normally do, then multiply by 10. for engineering in general the rule of thumb for experienced engineers is "double it", or "add 10%" when its a no-brainer.
>> some ultimately failed due to flawed business analysis
the game was not vetted thoroughly enough for sale-ability / potential demand. either you didn't do your homework, or you came to the wrong conclusion,. either way, you should have learned your lesson by now, and it won't happen again, right?
>> Only one of my previous projects was a full blown success, a very bad success rate
its about par for the design methodologies you've been using (IE muddling though). don't feel bad, we would all have similar track records under similar circumstances. "muddling through" is a rather hit or miss design methodology.
>> others failed because it was taking too much time and savings couldn't sustain it any longer
business is about making money - not spending it. all you need is a computer, software, and electricity everything else is just overhead. and NEVER quit your day job, until you've made at least 100K in games. then, even if you never sell another title, you'll have enough money to find a new career.
>> But when one factors in other pressures such as available savings (or limited funding), that answer is not so clear cut anymore
hardware, software, electric bills, and supporting yourself are all part of the costs that must be factored into the vetting process, IE "Can i afford to build this?"
and quitting your day job, and betting your savings on a game is a BAD, BAD idea. secure a source of income that will support you and pay the electric bill for the company, and can buy any required hardware / software. this factors money out of the equation at least for a while (until marketing time). then its juts a matter of how much of your time your willing to spend on development.
>> is there a standard way of estimating this kind of risks so as to cut down if its not feasible within certain time?
yes, but in the end they are estimates (educated guesses). you tend to get better at them with experience - IE as you become more educated about what it takes to succeed. so for your next project, you want to determine market demand, rapid prototype, and do time and budget estimates. then to adjust your results, divide estimated sales by 2 or 10 and increase time 10X and maybe double costs. and THEN see how viable it looks. how much to multiply or divide things by depends on how off your estimates have been in the past. you stated you've been off by a factor of 10 on time estimates, but gave no examples for sales or budgets - so i'm guessing divide by 2 or 10 or multiply by 2 or 10 for those. you will have a better idea of what the "correction factor" should be. this is really how one learns to estimate things in engineering. you do an initial estimate, and from the results determine your error factor. then the next time, you correct for your error factor. every time you do an estimate, your error tends to go down, until you reach the golden rule for engineering which is x10 for safety, x2 in general, and +10% if you know what you're doing. there are entire semester long courses in engineering on this kind of stuff (especially cost estimates, as opposed to time estimates).
Posted by Norman Barrows on 07 May 2016 - 04:31 AM
Some of the principles people have tossed in from a past thread are:
psychology of fun
building/triggering emotions
level design
emergent game play (what is that anyway?)
building complexity
design modification (perhaps this is simply part of iteration)
Is there a core group of principles in this stuff?
balance - this speak to the concept of difficulty. a game which is too easy or difficult is not fun.
level design is specific to level based games. and like interior design is largely a matter of opinion.
emergent play is when basic rules of the game combine to produce complex, unanticipated, beneficial results.
"attack equal or smaller within 50 feet" + "move to owner if far" makes my pet dire wolf chase small critters and birds just like real dog - and that was totally unplanned.
building emotional momentum really is only related to storylines in games. not all games are storyline based.
possible core principles:
balance and perceived fair play. all games should have this.
fun - all games should be fun. note that one person's definition of fun differs from the next. what you consider fun, others may not, and vice versa.
pacing - one should not progress too slowly or quickly though the game. a slow pace is boring. too fast a pace and you run out of content too quickly. you may also become too powerful too quickly, throwing off game balance, especially in later stages of the game.
not a whole lot else comes to mind offhand. and i have 6 years experience as a table top D&D DM, and 27 years experience as a PC game developer.
Valrus' posting above sums up the situation pretty accurately.
Posted by Norman Barrows on 06 May 2016 - 09:49 AM
>> If you're looking at specific applications then you can easily set up tests for them. Just run it like 10k times and see what the results looks like (distribution, unacceptable patterns, etc).
Posted by Norman Barrows on 06 May 2016 - 09:35 AM
>> Correct. With N being significantly less than 32767 (like say, a d20 or a pair of percentile dice) you should also not be affected by the striping by using a lerp function.
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Sri Lankan minister denies cabinet paper aimed at banning extremist organizations
Sun, Apr 7, 2013, 12:34 pm SL Time, ColomboPage News Desk, Sri Lanka.
Apr 07, Colombo: A government Minister has denied that a proposed Cabinet paper to be presented next week is aimed at banning the extremist religious organizations in the country.
Minister of National Languages and Social Integration, Vasudeva Nanayakkara has rejected claims that he is preparing to submit a Cabinet paper seeking a ban on extremist groups that are creating rifts between the ethnic and religious communities in the island.
He has said that the proposed Cabinet paper is not aimed at banning the extremist group, Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) or any other organization but he was only suggesting to ban hate speech that invokes racism.
The Minister has said that although he disagrees with some organizations, he agrees that they have the right to express their ideas.
"This is a democratic country and organizations have their rights to express ideas," he was quoted in local media as saying.
General Secretary of the government ally Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), Minister Champika Ranawaka, has said that his party would strongly object to the Cabinet Paper proposed by Minister Nanayakkara.
** Related Story :: Sri Lanka government to crack down on extremist groups
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i had mine for about 2 months and it cracked on the headtube. but i have a satirmaster now and ive had it for about a year now. super good
i got one its great super light and super strong
the colour green is great too
i got one its great super light and super strong
the colour green is great too
ive had this frame for days and i thrash it pretty hard. so i would have to say it kicks ass cause it does
| Headset: Internal
Bottom bracket: Mid or Euro
Top tube length: 20.75", and 21"
Chainstay length: 13-3/4" to 14-3/4"
Head tube angle: 74.5 degrees
Seat tube angle: 71 degrees
Materials: 4130 chromoly
Brake mount location: seatstays
Other features: Split guide and stop on top tube
Weight: 5.4 pounds (20.75tt)
Colors: Transparent Black, Sour Apple Green
|More Info
|FBM website
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AUSTIN–Embrey Partners has completed the 344-unit Escape at Four Points. The class A, luxury garden apartment complex is located at 11210 FM 2222 in west Austin.
"There are great schools, great amenities and convenient access to major Austin employment centers. We feel very fortunate to be able to deliver a first-class, multi-family development to a truly unique site," says Jeff Booth, Embrey's senior managing partner.
As part of the construction process, San Antonio-based Embrey worked closely with the City of Austin in order to preserve as much of the natural environment as possible. For example, Embrey built the buildings to have walkout basement foundations that worked with the site's grade, which allowed the company to preserve more trees.
"We made the buildings work with the land, not the other way around," Booth says.
The multifamily community contains one-, two- and three-bedroom units, ranging in size from 700 square feet to 1,355 square feet. Amenities include a resort-style pool, fitness center, resident lounge with coffee bar and game room.
Escape at Four Points will add to Embrey's portfolio of more than 2,000 multi-family units developed in the last year.
As GlobeSt.com reported last month, Embrey started construction on GreenVUE, a class A, transit-oriented residential development located just three miles from the new State Farm campus. The project will include 400 one- and two-bedroom units, ranging in size from 650 square feet to 1,450 square feet.


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Change of Address – Sarah Hague Goes Dotty - Languedoc-Roussillon
Sarah at St. Bloggie de Riviere has moved!
She used to live at sarahhague.blogspot.com and now lives at sarahhague.com
As far as I can tell, she's much the same in her new home as she was in the old one?
She talks about it in her post called Sarah Hague goes DotCom
Which confused me when I first saw it as…
I misread it as Sarah Hague goes Dotty
And cried out to Mrs A Taste of Garlic (who was having her postprandial nap in the pantry at the time)…
"What does she mean – she goes dotty? She's been dotty for ages!"
Anyway, Dotty or not, she's moved and you may want to update your bookmarks or favourites
All the best
A selection of Books About France that might interest you
- Cheltenham
- Retiring to France (Retiring Abroad)
- Le Gavroche Cookbook
- The French Property Buyer's Handbook: Everything you need to know about buying a house and moving to France
- Michelin Map France: Auvergne, Limousin 522 (Michelin Maps) (Michelin Regional Maps)
- Oz and James's Big Wine Adventure
- A Lancashire Miscellany
- A Summer in Gascony: The Other South of France
- Bon Appetit!: Travels with knife,fork & corkscrew through France: Travels Through France with Knife, Fork and Corkscrew
- Northern France Good Beer Guide
2 Comments
By Keith Eckstein, September 9, 2011 @ 10:55 am
Congratulations on your new Dottiness!
Looking forward to seeing what you are planning to do with it!
All the best
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South Fork Baptist Church celebrated their 230th anniversary this year.
South Fork Baptist has been a part of local history dating back to the pioneer days in the late 1700's.
Past congregations have encountered Native American attacks, slavery and civil war disputes, building constructions and the prohibition of alcohol.
Past anniversary celebrations have seen the likes of attending church in pioneer costumes, Nolin River baptisms and arriving to worship in a horse and buggy.
This year's event hosted a carnival fundraiser, benefitting the student ministry, along with as much of the 230-year history they could squeeze into a compact disc given to each member of the congregation.
The service itself included former South Fork Pastor Norm Brock delivering the message, Lynn Association Director of Missions Gordon McDowell praying over the Lord's Supper, the oldest and youngest current pastors, Clyde Allen and Caleb Phelps, leading the Lord's Supper and oldest member/deacon Madison Mather closing the service in prayer.
South Fork Baptist Church is involved in many local ministries but also tries to expand their fellowship through mission trips around the globe.
"Over 1.6 billion people have no chance to hear the name of Christ and we feel called to obediently and joyfully share his name," current South Fork Pastor Jonathan Carl said.
Since 1996, South Fork members have departed on 11 mission trips to other countries and 29 within the United States.
The trips range in size from as small as a couple spending six weeks in Ghana to Mission Fuge with more than 30 students.
Thirty-nine pastors have led the church since its beginning.
"I feel blessed to be able to serve and lead a church with the rich heritage and history of South Fork. It is incredible to see what the Lord has done through the faithfulness of his people over the past 230 years and exciting to think about what is ahead," said Pastor Carl.
If you are interested in more detailed historical information, South Fork has compiled all its available history onto a compact disc available at the church.
South Fork is located at 4915 New Jackson Highway, two miles South of Hodgenville, on Highway 31-E.
1782 - South Fork Baptist Church was organized in present day LaRue County around an oak tree beside the Nolin River.
The 13 original members, led by Benjamin Lynn and James Skaggs, came together to form the South Fork Separate Baptist Church.
1804 - The church's first building, a log cabin was built in what is now the cemetery and the first official records were recorded.
1808 - Part of South Fork Separate Baptist Church split off to form Little Mount Separate Baptist Church in favor of an abolitionist position on slavery.
1849 - Saw the church's construction of a second building. The building, built on wooden frames, would be used for over 35 years.
1863 - The fighting caused by the civil war period shut down South Fork from 1862 to 1863.
1874 - South Fork's first organized Sunday school classes took place.
1885 - Construction of South Fork's brick building was completed in 1885.
1924 - Women's Missionary Society was formed.
1933 - R.P. Merritt compiled a history of the church up until that point.
1951 - South Fork's first Vacation Bible School took place and a new church building was constructed. The building is now used as the children's sanctuary.
1962 - Parsonage dedication.
1977 - South Fork's first mission trip got under way 35 years ago.
1991 - Fellowship hall dedication.
2000 - Current sanctuary constructed and then dedication took place in 2001.
2012 - South Fork Baptist Church's 230th anniversary.
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"Fashion in Today's Economic World"
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- 2 killed in Washington Twp. shooting; ruled murder-suicide
- Baby bison joins the herd at Lehigh Valley Zoo
- RAWA meets for first time since Reading council dissolves authority
- David Cummings pleads guilty in stepson's death
» More Southeastern PA News
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Missing Chinese student Zhejuan Huang found at home in Ultimo
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Ben Rivers wins the second EYE Art & Film Prize
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