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Afghanistan Drug Control:
Despite Improved Efforts, Deteriorating Security Threatens Success of U.S. Goals
GAO-07-78: Published: Nov 15, 2006. Publicly Released: Nov 15, 2006.
Additional Materials:
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The prevalence of opium poppy cultivation and drug trafficking in Afghanistan imperils the stability of its government and threatens to turn the conflict-ridden nation once again into a safe haven for traffickers and terrorists. To combat the drug trade, the U.S. government developed a counternarcotics strategy consisting of five pillars--alternative livelihoods, elimination and eradication, interdiction, law enforcement and justice, and public information. The Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2005 directed GAO to examine the use of all fiscal year 2005 funds administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Department of State (State) for Afghan counternarcotics programs. To comply with this mandate, we examined progress under each counternarcotics pillar, challenges faced, and efforts to ensure that funds were used for intended purposes. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed pertinent USAID and State documents and met with cognizant U.S. and international officials in Washington, D.C., and Afghanistan. GAO makes no recommendations in this report. USAID, State, Department of Defense, and Department of Justice were provided a draft of this report, but did not provide formal comments.
USAID and State received about $532 million fiscal year 2005 funds and initiated a number of projects under each counternarcotics pillar, but delays in implementation limited progress. For example, State's provision of aircraft enhanced the mobility of eradicators, but coordination difficulties between Afghan officials and security forces delayed the eradicators' fielding. Despite increased eradication and other U.S. efforts, the poppy crop grew by 50 percent in 2006 to a record level. However, many projects have not been in place long enough to assess progress toward the overall goal of significantly reducing drug cultivation, production, and trafficking. For example, projects to provide rural credit and to field teams to discourage poppy cultivation were not in place prior to the 2005-2006 growing season. The worsening security situation and the lack of Afghan capacity are tremendous challenges to the success of U.S. counternarcotics programs in Afghanistan. The security situation continues to decline; during the 2005-2006 growing season, eradicators were attacked several times and alternative livelihoods project personnel were killed. Moreover, due to Afghanistan's lack of infrastructure, educated populace, and functioning governmental institutions, significantly reducing poppy cultivation and drug trafficking is expected to take at least a decade. USAID and State have made efforts to oversee the use of funds, including the use of self certifications, contract clauses, and vetting, when applicable. However, a lack of official records and reliable information limited efforts to vet Afghan nationals. In addition, although USAID and State have made efforts to monitor ongoing projects, security concerns and poor infrastructure limited site visits.
Apr 18, 2016
Foreign Aid:USAID Generally Complied with Its Antiterrorism Policies and Procedures for Program Assistance for West Bank and GazaGAO-16-442: Published: Apr 18, 2016. Publicly Released: Apr 18, 2016.
Apr 5, 2016
Compacts of Free Association:Issues Associated with Implementation in Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall IslandsGAO-16-550T: Published: Apr 5, 2016. Publicly Released: Apr 5, 2016.
Feb 16, 2016
International Remittances:Actions Needed to Address Unreliable Official U.S. EstimateGAO-16-60: Published: Feb 16, 2016. Publicly Released: Feb 16, 2016.
Feb 2, 2016
Building Partner Capacity:U.S. Agencies Can Improve Monitoring of Counter-Firearms Trafficking Efforts in Belize, Guatemala, and MexicoGAO-16-235: Published: Jan 13, 2016. Publicly Released: Feb 2, 2016.
Jan 20, 2016
Foreign Assistance:USAID Venture Capital Approach Relies on Evidence of Results but Could Strengthen Collaboration among Similar ProgramsGAO-16-142: Published: Dec 21, 2015. Publicly Released: Jan 20, 2016.
Jan 13, 2016
Iranian Commercial Activities:Update on Foreign Firms Reported to Have Engaged in Iran's Energy or Communications SectorsGAO-16-247R: Published: Jan 13, 2016. Publicly Released: Jan 13, 2016.
Jan 11, 2016
Firearms Trafficking:U.S. Efforts to Combat Firearms Trafficking to Mexico Have Improved, but Some Collaboration Challenges RemainGAO-16-223: Published: Jan 11, 2016. Publicly Released: Jan 11, 2016.
Overseas Private Investment Corporation:Additional Actions Could Improve Monitoring ProcessesGAO-16-64: Published: Dec 11, 2015. Publicly Released: Jan 11, 2016.
Dec 3, 2015
Afghanistan:State and USAID Should Evaluate Actions Taken to Mitigate Effects of Attrition among Local StaffGAO-16-100: Published: Dec 3, 2015. Publicly Released: Dec 3, 2015.
Nov 17, 2015
SEC Conflict Minerals Rule:Insights from Companies' Initial Disclosures and State and USAID Actions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo RegionGAO-16-200T: Published: Nov 17, 2015. Publicly Released: Nov 17, 2015.
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Department: Finance Location: Emeryville, CA Position Type / FLSA Status: Full-time/Exempt POSITION SUMMARY The Senior Manager / Associate Director of Financial Reporting leads and manages the external financial reporting function for the Company, including, but not limited3/20/2016 Emeryville, CA Save This Job

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Ā I can not believe that my little bundle of joy has grown up so fast already! I was just telling my husband last night that I feel like she grew up all by herself, I feel like I didn't do anything! I always was told that being a mother/parent was the hardest job in the world and all that but it really isn't for me.Ā It has been so much fun and filled with joy it made it go by so much faster!
Ā My little baby is now a full blown preschooler and I am not READY. I feel like I am going to blink my eyes and she will be graduating high school and then college and then getting married and then having her own children....Ā ugh. That is that hard part. But worth it all. Ā
Happy Birthday my most special girl, I love you more than life!


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I have been so grateful for this site, it has been wonderful in making me more comfortable about my relationship. Basically, it comes down to the fact that my boyfriend and I are at the point where sex would seem like the next natural step, but every time we get close, we end up having a discussion instead. We have been together for a year now, are 21 and are both virgins, and while he is completely ready, I am not sure I am. We have engaged in all other sexual activities, manual, oral, etc, but I cannot seem to wrap my head around the idea of having actual intercourse.I have told him why - nervous, scared that the relationship will change, that it will become all about the physical, etc. And while he says he wants me to be comfortable, I think that he is really getting frustrated. I feel like even though we are not having sex yet, everything is now about that. And the last time we were together, it was all about him...physically I mean. And he is never like that. I just don't know if I am making too big a deal out of the whole sex thing. I mean we have talked the issue to death already, and I want to know what sex with him would be like....is there anything I can do to take the pressure off of myself and to therefore, take the pressure off our relationship?
I'm not a virgin but I have only had sex being drunk and have never had sex sober. How do you have good sex sober? How do you be on top and be comfortable with what your doing. And know what you're doing, right?
I'm a virgin, and I've been dating my boyfriend for over a year now. He's really worried that I don't really love him unless I have sex with him. The thing is I'm not really worried about the actual sex part, I'm worried about the aftermath. You know, getting pregnant. Is there any possible way on my first time? Especially if we use a condom? I have a lot planned for my future, but I want him to be in it. HELP
I appreciate your site, and have been reading as much of it (along with several other sources) as I can, and discussing topics with family and close friends and the information is very helpful. However, I still feel amazingly overwhelmed, confused and scared about sex and was hoping I could get some direct help.
I am a 17 year old virgin guy and have a 14 year old girlfriend, as well as (and I do hate myself for this) a would-be lover (my friend's girlfriend). I love and (I believe) am loved by both of them, although at our ages I think it is hard to tell sometimes (uncertainty about feelings, the drama vs. love that you have mentioned, "is it just a casual boyfriend/girlfriend thing", etc). Anyways, I have heard many different opinions about the first time especially in emotional and spiritual terms, and also have my own personal fears and complications.
First, I am worried because I am uncertain about sex being "such a big deal". Honestly I would hope that it is not and I think I may have been close-minded to that effect. Specifically among my concerns are some statements on your site (forgive me and correct if my paraphrasing compromises the intent):
I am going to have sex with my boyfriend soon, but I am really scared about getting pregnant. We are going to use a condom but I'm paranoid that I'm going to get pregnant. I could go on the pill but my mum wont let me.. so I'm going to ask my friend's mum, also. If I could get the morning after pill and take it just in case it won't harm me will it?
Hello, I am 18 years old and I have been with my girlfriend for almost 2 years. We really want to have sex and we are both ready; HOWEVER she wants to get the best protection method, as do I. So our plan is to get condoms and then birth control. The thing is, we don't know how soon the pill works and how expensive it is to buy it. As well we wanted to know what days in her cycle is she at low risk of pregnancy (including the use of condom)? As well how would you talk about it with a parent? Thanks.
I had sex a few days after my period and I made sure it was over. I lied to my boyfriend bout it so that I had time to make sure it was clean. 3 weeks later I had my period. My periods are usually irregular so I figured it's okay. But I'm still so so worried. Please help! Could I be pregnant? I haven't been feeling anything at all and I've only done it once, just that night. No sperm came out either.
How will I be able to make love to my girlfriend, because we have talked about it but she didn't agree.
What should I do?
I'm 16 years-old and I have been going out with this truly amazing guy I have known for nearly five years. We have been dating for 2 months, but I feel as if we have really connected physically and emotionally. We talk openly about sex and express ourselves as mature and intelligent young adults. The problem is that I have difficulties accepting myself physically. I have very very small breasts and a petite frame and that keeps me from experimenting sexually with my partner. I know I have a great personality and other good features, but I cannot help feeling like a child. Is my underdevelopment or my insecurity a sign that I am not ready for sex?
Thank you.
Information on this site is provided for educational purposes. It is not meant to and cannot substitute for advice or care provided by an in-person medical professional. The information contained herein is not meant to be used to diagnose or treat a health problem or disease, or for prescribing any medication. You should always consult your own healthcare provider if you have a health problem or medical condition.


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On December 16th, come to the S. Portland boat launch at Bug Light in a Santa suit and join us on a holiday cruise in Portland harbor.
We will meet up at 9:45 am, and launch by 10am. The cruise will follow the S. Portland waterfront to the Casco Bay Bridge, and then we will paddle back along the Portland waterfront, maybe stopping for some egg-nog before we cross back to Bug Light.
Please be costumed! You will need a pfd (I recommend a traditional vest style worn over your wetsuit, and under you costume), as well as good winter booties and gloves. Ski gloves are fine, but don't get them wet.
If air temps get much below 25, or wind becomes a factor, we might have to cancel, but will not make a final determination until we meet at Bug Light boat launch.
updated 04/30/2016 8:04am
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We are no longer having Friday morning Demos @ Willard Beach. Please call the shop to arrange a demo.
Our Saturday Casco Bay Race Series is over for 2015, we will resume next summer!
By Appointent Only through February 2016
Offseason hours:
By Appointment Only (don't be shy though!)
382 Cottage Rd.
South Portland, ME 04106


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I like locally-roasted coffee, Bill Plympton animations, Bitcoin, writing music and my puppy. I am especially not a fan of Windows 8.
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I have iPad third generation and I connect to internet through an entreprise network. The problem is that no video streaming or video downloading happens on my iPad, this is also the case with iphones or other iOS devices.
The network has blocked everything but has exceptions for things needed like browsing.
FTP, P2P are some of the many things that are blocked. All kinds of video streaming for pc's is blocked before 6 PM. Youtube, vimeo for pc's only work after 6 PM.
But on iOS devices even after 6 PM youtube app, vimeo on website, ted videos, AND ESPECIALLY ITUNES U dont work. They all open but give error when a video is clicked. App store is working though.
I talked with the network administrators and many ports were checked and tested but still the videos did not work. These same work in direct personal broadband connections so there is no problem with the devices.
PLEASE TELL WHICH PORTS OR THINGS SHOULD BE UNBLOCKED SO THE videos WORK.
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Volleyball Watch Party to Follow Husker Hoops Game
Courtesy: GoDucks.com
Release Date: 12/14/2012
After the conclusion of the Duck men's basketball game vs. Nebraska that starts at 1:30 p.m., volleyball fans can catch the UO-UT match-up that starts at 4 p.m. on ESPN2.
Doors open at 3:30 p.m. for the watch party on the Knightvision scoreboards, and parking will be free in the MKA garage.
The McArthur Club concessions stand will be open for the first two sets, and fans can enter the arena from the north side off Franklin Avenue.
Seeded fifth overall in the tourney, UO (30-4, 16-4) will meet #3-seeded Texas (28-4) for the fourth time in school history in Louisville's KFC Yum! Center.
The Ducks punched their ticket to the final with a 3-1 semifinal win Thursday over a top-ranked Penn State team (33-3) for the second time in as many years. UT qualified after it won 3-2 over Michigan Thursday evening, and is seeking its second-ever national title.
The match will be also streamed online live at ESPN3.com, and more NCAA tourney information is available at the www.NCAAsports.com website.
- www.GoDucks.com -
- Loaded Home Schedule for Oregon Volleyball
- Ducks Prepare for Four-Match Spring Slate
- Gill Named to Pac-12 All-Star Team
- Ducks Topped by No. 6 Wisconsin
- Midseason Change Sparked Volleyball's Surge To NCAAs
- Hawkins Becomes UO's New Wins Leader in DH Sweep
- Ducks are NCAA-Bound
- Nick Catalano Excelling On and Off the Field


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Nov. 23, 1905-March 9, 2005
ST. FRANCIS -- Dorothy B. Burrus, 99, died Wednesday (March 9, 2005) at Cheyenne County Hospital in St. Francis.
She was born Nov. 23, 1905, in Danbury. She was a homemaker.
She was preceded in death by her husband, Thomas Burrus in 1971; and daughter, L. Elaine Davis in January of 2004.
Survivors include her son, Van Burrus of St. Francis; sister, Florence Moyer of St. Francis; four grandchildren; eight great-grandchildren; and eight great-great-grandchildren.
Services are Friday, 10:30 a.m., at the United Methodist Church in St. Francis. Interment will be in Danbury/Marion Cemetery at 2:30 p.m.
Visitation is today, 1-9 p.m., at Knodel Funeral Home in St. Francis.
Memorials may be give to the United Methodist Church, senior center or the Good Samaritan Village, all of St. Francis.
Knodel Funeral Home of St. Francis is in charge of the arrangements.


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Wi-Fi Alliance® Applauds New FCC Milestone Toward The Release Of Additional Spectrum For Wi-Fi®
AUSTIN, Texas, Feb. 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The United States Federal Communications Commission voted unanimously last week to propose the release of significant new wireless spectrum for Wi-Fi ® via a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM). The rulemaking would make available an additional 195 MHz of spectrum in the 5 GHz band for Wi-Fi, and is particularly useful for the emerging generation of gigabit-speed Wi-Fi, based on IEEE 802.11ac. This would be the largest block of unlicensed spectrum made available for Wi-Fi in the U.S. in more than a decade.(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20070516/SFW029LOGO) Interested parties will have 45 days to submit comments, and an additional 30 days to submit reply comments, from the time the NPRM is published in the Federal Register, which is likely to occur within the next few weeks. The FCC will consider input from the public as well as the input from the U.S. National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), which administers spectrum used by U.S. federal entities that currently employ some of the 5 GHz band. After that, the FCC will issue one or more decisions, likely making some or all of the targeted 195 MHz available. Wi- Fi Alliance ® Perspective:Wi- Fi Alliance commends the United States Federal Communications Commission for its leadership and swift progress toward this spectrum release. "Consumers, service providers and businesses rely on Wi-Fi now more than ever," said Wi-Fi Alliance president and CEO Edgar Figueroa. "The added spectrum in 5 GHz will foster continued innovation in Wi-Fi technology and help propel advancements toward faster, less congested Wi-Fi networks in homes, enterprises, and public places throughout the United States." About Wi-Fi Alliance www.wi-fi.orgWi- Fi Alliance is a global non-profit industry association of hundreds of leading companies devoted to seamless connectivity. With technology development, market building, and regulatory programs, Wi-Fi Alliance has enabled widespread adoption of Wi-Fi worldwide. The Wi-Fi CERTIFIED™ program was launched in March 2000. It provides a widely-recognized designation of interoperability and quality and it helps to ensure that Wi-Fi-enabled products deliver the best user experience. Wi- Fi Alliance has certified more than 14,000 products, encouraging the expanded use of Wi-Fi products and services in new and established markets. Wi-Fi ®, Wi-Fi Alliance ®, WMM ®, Wi-Fi Protected Access ® (WPA), the Wi-Fi CERTIFIED logo, the Wi-Fi logo, the Wi-Fi ZONE logo and the Wi-Fi Protected Setup logo are registered trademarks of Wi-Fi Alliance. Wi-Fi CERTIFIED™, Wi-Fi Direct™, Wi-Fi Protected Setup™, Wi-Fi Multimedia™, WPA2™, Wi-Fi CERTIFIED Passpoint™, Passpoint™, Wi-Fi CERTIFIED Miracast™, Miracast™, Wi-Fi ZONE™ and the Wi-Fi Alliance logo are trademarks of Wi-Fi Alliance.
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A review of the best and worst performances by the Washington Redskins' defense and some observations after re-watching the TV broadcast of their 20-9 loss to the Miami Dolphins:
NT BARRY COFIELD: Cofield was a big reason why the Redskins surrendered only 3.1 yards per carry, their best mark since Week 4. He consistently anchored inside against C Mike Pouncey and even penetrated on a few runs. ILBs London Fletcher and Perry Riley came downhill against the run all game partly because Cofield gave them the space to do so.
Cofield created CB Kevin Barnes' interception by beating a double team and hitting QB Matt Moore's right arm during the throw. He broke down Pouncey's hands with a quick slap and rip and penetrated between the center and the right guard. He almost had an interception of his own in the second quarter when he diagnosed a screen pass to RB Reggie Bush and dove in front of it.
LOLB RYAN KERRIGAN: Kerrigan forced a fumble that gave Washington's anemic offense the ball at Miami's 24-yard line in the third quarter. For me, that's enough to make up for 20 yards on two penalties and isolated negative plays allowed in coverage and in run defense.
Kerrigan in total had two sacks, forced two fumbles and in the process showed some explosiveness rushing off the edge. His first quarter sack resulted from an outside move around RT Marc Colombo. Kerrigan stayed low off the snap, ripped under Colombo's outside shoulder and stayed low to sharply turn the corner. Kerrigan didn't make that type of play when he first began practicing in July. He obviously has gotten more comfortable maintaining leverage and proper angles when rushing the passer from a two-point stance.
Credit him for being aware of the importance of hacking down on the ball when finishing a sack. Twice he stripped the ball from QB Matt Moore by swiping down. Compare that to OLB Brian Orakpo, who failed to get the ball free from Carolina QB Cam Newton on a free shot in Week 7. Orakpo says he is more concerned with tackling the quarterback than stripping him.
Kerrigan stayed fairly tight in coverage on a deep incompletion to TE Anthony Fasano down the middle on third-and-13 in the second quarter. He lined up over Fasano and forced him to take an outside release. Moore's throw, then, was too far in front of Fasano.
Kerrigan was OK, not great, in run defense. Fasano locked onto him and blocked him one-on-one on RB Reggie Bush's second touchdown run. The entire left side of the Redskins' line failed on that play, allowing three blockers to get to the second level.
ROLB BRIAN ORAKPO: Pro Bowlers can't be as quiet as Orakpo was. Dolphins LT Jake Long controlled him all game. Long has great feet for his enormous size (6-7, 317). He limited Orakpo's speed rush and never was overpowered by the bull rush.
Another reason for Orakpo's minimal impact: He dropped in pass coverage on almost half of the dropbacks (14 of 30) for which he was in the game. Compare that to OLB Ryan Kerrigan playing coverage on only a quarter of Miami's dropbacks (8 of 32).
One play stands out that's worth following up on this week. Keep on reading because I want to classify it with the third-down defense review.
Third-down defense was the Redskins' demise. The Dolphins entered the game last in the NFL converting only 26 percent of their third downs, but they were 8 of 14 (57 percent).
Various breakdowns kept the Redskins from getting off the field. First, let's go back to the play I alluded to in OLB Brian Orakpo's write-up above: Third-and-4 from the Washington 40-yard line. QB Matt Moore completed a 26-yard pass to WR Brandon Marshall down the middle.
Marshall lined up inside near the right tackle with CB DeAngelo Hall covering him. Orakpo, meanwhile, took his usual position on the right edge of the defense.
In an attempt to mix up looks, I guess, coaches called for Hall to blitz off the corner, giving Marshall a free run down the middle of the field. Vertical routes by receivers on the outside split the safeties. That left Orakpo dropping down the middle to try to prevent a completion to Marshall.
Orakpo gave a valiant effort — he jumped and the ball sailed just out of his reach — but that's asking a lot of him. You'd think the higher-percentage play there is to have your Pro Bowl cornerback run with the two-time Pro Bowl receiver instead of asking your outside linebacker, who doesn't excel in coverage, to drop 15 yards from across the formation. Again, I'm eager to follow up on that one this week.
Another third-down failure: Third-and-8 from the Miami 31; Redskins trailing 13-9 with 10:20 remaining. Washington desperately needed the ball back behind by only one score.
The Dolphins lined Marshall and WR Brian Hartline up wide left; CBs Byron Westbrook and Kevin Barnes covered them. TE Anthony Fasano had his hand down on the left side of the formation, as well. All three ran vertical routes. ILB London Fletcher showed blitz but dropped in coverage alongside Fasano. But when Fasano stopped near the yard-to-gain, Fletcher kept dropping. Barnes didn't come off Hartline in time to jump the throw to Fasano inside. The 11-yard completion was too easy.
• ILB Perry Riley was exciting to watch in his first start. He constantly was around the ball; he diagnosed two screens on which he darted behind the blockers out in front of the play.
Also, he plays faster than ILB Rocky McIntosh. He chased RB Reggie Bush down on a pitch to the left, strung the play out and didn't let Bush turn the corner. Bush gained only 1 yard. Riley later hit QB Matt Moore on a blitz up the middle after he faked Bush out with a jab step in the backfield.
Without being certain about Riley's assignments on each play, there appeared times when he either filled the wrong gap or ran with the wrong receiver. That's to be expected, though, for a player in his first start. As Mike Shanahan would say, Riley made his mistakes at 100 miles per hour. That the instincts and physical talent were evident is the main takeaway from his game. He'll sharpen his play if given a chance during the final seven games.
• It was an uneven collective performance by the Redskins' cornerbacks. CB DeAngelo Hall gave up at least two downfield completions after turning his hips the wrong way and having to circle his whole body around. He had two nice run fits, though.
CB Kevin Barnes had an interception, and he and Hall jumped a wide receiver screen to get the Redskins off the field on a third down in the second half. But WR Davone Bess beat him for a 23-yard gain out of the slot on third-and-10. Bess got an inside release with some quick footwork off the line, and Barnes' attempt to jam him was ineffective.
CB Josh Wilson broke up three passes. He drove on an early slant, dove to break up a drag route and used his body well to box out WR Brandon Marshall on a fade into the end zone in the first half.
• Dolphins QB Matt Moore dropped back to pass 32 times. The Redskins rushed four defenders 17 times; five defenders 13 times; and seven defenders twice.
Against four rushers, Moore was 12-of-16 for 109 yards, an interception and sack; a passer rating of 66.9.
Against five rushers, Moore was 7-of-11 for 85 yards and a sack; a passer rating of 87.3.
Against seven rushers, Moore was 1-of-2 for 15 yards.
• I'd love to know why Dolphins coaches thought it was a good idea to throw down the field on third-and-31 in the first quarter against a Redskins team that can't score points. That terrible call turned into CB Kevin Barnes' interception. Then again, maybe Dolphins coaches figured the Redskins wouldn't cross the goal line as long as they tackled whoever intercepted the pass.
• On RB Reggie Bush's game-clinching 18-yard touchdown run, three blockers got to the second level. Backup DLs Chris Neild and Kentwan Balmer and LOLB Ryan Kerrigan didn't stop C Mike Pouncey from blocking ILB Perry Riley, H-back Charles Clay from getting to ILB London Fletcher and RB Daniel Thomas from blocking CB DeAngelo Hall. Hall's tackle attempt is open to criticism, but that play was doomed as soon as three Dolphins got into the defensive backfield.
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CNS has two news bits of interest to abuse watchdogs and survivor advocates. One, the UN notices the Church is somewhat lenient on bishops. And we should get tough, according to them. Right after that Father Robert W. Oliver, CDF … Continue reading
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Alta M. Hershberger, 95, Middlebury, died Monday, January 6, 2014 at Miller's Merry Manor of LaGrange.
John E. Miller, 69, Mio, Mich., formerly of Middlebury, died Monday, January 6, 2014.
Cristopher Castetter, age 29, of Millersburg, IN passed away on Friday, January 03, 2014. He was born on May 6, 1984 in Goshen, Indiana to Kit & Donna (Bergman) Castetter.
Virginia F. Brock, 88, Klinger Lake in White Pigeon, Mich., formerly of Fish Lake, Ind., died Saturday, January 4, 2014 at her residence.
Mary Etta Eash, 78, Shipshewana, died Wednesday, January 1, 2014 at Parkview LaGrange Hospital.
Elizabeth Byler, 86, Shipshewana, died Thursday, January 2, 2014 at her residence.
Arctic air and over a foot of snow descended on LaGrange County starting late Saturday night, Jan. 4. By Sunday evening, many roads were impassable and remained so through most of Tuesday.
The LaGrange County Sheriff's Department was contacted by LaGrange Publishing Company on December 24 regarding a theft.
The LaGrange County Sheriff's Department was contacted on December 31 regarding a boat and trailer that had been sold without the owner's permission.
The LaGrange County Sheriff's Department was contacted shortly after 8 a.m. on December 28 regarding a burglary.
Winter art class…
Dear friends,
It was announced that the U.S. Department of Labor filed a lawsuit against PBI Bank, Inc., to recover losses to the Miller's Health System Employee Stock Ownership Plan.
A single-vehicle crash left the driver injured, with a child passenger unhurt.
On December 18, deputies from the LaGrange County Sheriff's Department were dispatched to a residence in the 6000 block of CR 700N in reference to a male that refused to leave.


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- Mar 15:
- Denver police raid illegal marijuana grow sites across the city
- Nov 12:
- Prosecutors say budget amendment doesn't protect Colorado pot lawyer
- Nov 5:
- Second suspect reaches apparent plea agreement in VIP Cannabis raids
- Nov 2:
- Colorado attorney says federal law protects him from pot prosecution
- Feb 23:
- Colombian man indicted in Colorado marijuana shop raids pleads guilty
- Colombian arrested during Colorado pot raids pleads guilty
The City of Denver has begun auctioning off the assets — sans pot — of several medical marijuana business that were raided by the federal government last year.
Auctioneer Rich Schur announced the sales in a news release Friday. He said the assets were seized to pay for back taxes. In total, the assets of three stores and three grows connected to the operators of VIP Cannabis will be sold.
The first auction, for items from the former Herbology dispensary, are being sold as a group on Schur Success Auction and Appraisal's website.
John Ingold: 303-954-1068, firstname.lastname@example.com or twitter.com/john_ingold


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text: News Law firms buy a piece of London's history By The Lawyer 3 September 2007 16:09 13 December 2015 21:59 Sign in or register to continue reading. It's FREE Sign in Email Password Keep me logged in Forgot your password? Not registered? It's FREE! Register now Register with The Lawyer Login to comment


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- TOPS payment rate restriction wins final passage from House Updated: May-02-16 6:59 pm
BATON ROUGE, Louisiana - New cost controls are planned for TOPS as lawmakers struggle to pay for the nearly $300 million college tuition program.
- Illinois weighs college aid for students in the US illegally Updated: Apr-29-16 3:34 pm
SPRINGFIELD, Illinois - Laura Vivaldo considers herself fortunate among her Illinois college classmates who are in the U.S. illegally and struggle to pay tuition because they don't qualify for state or federal financial aid.
- Gov't launches new website for student loan borrowers Updated: Apr-28-16 12:04 am
WASHINGTON - The Department of Education has launched a new website to help people with student loans find a repayment option that best suits their needs.
- The Latest: Minnesota House passes education budget bill Updated: Apr-25-16 9:46 pm
ST. PAUL, Minnesota - The Latest on Minnesota's education budget (all times local):
- Iowa program offers aid to attract dentists to rural areas Updated: Apr-24-16 6:50 pm
MAQUOKETA, Iowa - A program that offers assistance in paying off student loans is helping draw dentists to small towns in Iowa.
- Children's savings account programs spread in New England Updated: Apr-23-16 10:58 am
CONCORD, New Hampshire - New Hampshire is considering a new program to help children save money for college, but the proposal lags years behind other nearby states in timing and target population.
- North Dakota tribal school waives tuition for tribal members Updated: Apr-18-16 11:10 am
BISMARCK, North Dakota - A Bismarck community college run by the five American Indian tribes in North Dakota is waiving tuition for members of federally recognized tribes, hoping to boost enrollment and give students a better financial start to life.
- Teachers can apply for student loan forgiveness program Updated: Apr-16-16 6:17 pm
BISMARCK, North Dakota - The North Dakota University System is accepting applications for the teacher shortage student loan forgiveness program.
- Rhode Island congressman to host discussion on college costs Updated: Apr-16-16 9:26 am
PROVIDENCE, Rhode Island - U.S. Rep. David Cicilline is hosting a discussion about college affordability.
- U-Va. reduces tuition increase for returning students Updated: Apr-14-16 10:17 am
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Virginia - The University of Virginia says returning students will pay higher tuition this fall, but the increase will be half of what the university had planned.
- New steps to help people with disabilities and student loans Updated: Apr-12-16 2:47 pm
WASHINGTON - The Obama administration is taking steps to help people with disabilities get their student loan debt forgiven, safeguarding their Social Security payments.
- Student loan debt adjustors to refund illegal fees Updated: Apr-07-16 1:54 pm
SEATTLE - The state Attorney General's Office says several student loan debt adjustors in Washington that overcharged hundreds of students and collected illegal fees will refund the money,
- Why you need to check if your child has a credit report Updated: Apr-06-16 1:37 pm
NEW YORK - They might not be old enough to swipe a credit card or take out a loan, but you still need to keep an eye on your little one's credit.


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Answer by Egirl Team
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I do a lot of woodworking where I end up varnishing to reveal the wood. I throw away the brushes rather than trying to clean them with mineral spirits. It just saves a lot...Read complete review
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Everyone knows how handy these disposable brushes are to have around the shop. The price can't be beat when you compare this pack to buying them individually. it's like getting 26 brushes for free.
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Podiatrists in Neenah
Below is a list of businesses listed within our directory. If you do not see your business within the list below, you can submit it for addition to this list. Adding your business will feature your listing above Standard listings.
Dr Corey W Wesner - Neenah, WI - Phone: (920) 725-4008
Schneekloth Donald J Dr - Neenah, WI - Phone: (920) 722-0842
Helpful Definition for: Podiatrists
Podiatrists are medical professionals who practice podiatry. Podiatrists are responsible for diagnosing and treating patients with problems in foot, ankle or any portion of the leg. Podiatrists in Neenah specialize in specific areas like surgery, biomechanics, sports medicine, orthopedics, etc. Though not a common form of medical study, many countries have podiatrists who practice podiatry.
Podiatrists in Neenah have to study various biomedical subjects like biochemistry, medical chemistry, etc. After getting a degree, they are eligible to carry on their practice. Podiatrists in Neenah who wish to become podiatric surgeons have to opt for further studies and gain a specialization degree for carrying out the surgical procedures on their patients.
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Governor Cuomo Launches $5 Billion Clean Energy Fund To Grow New York's Clean Energy Economy
Clean Energy Fund will advance solar, wind, energy efficiency and other clean tech industries to spur economic development and reduce harmful emissions (New York, NY) Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced the New York State Public Service Commission's approval of a 10-year, $5 billion Clean Energy Fund to accelerate the growth of New York's clean energy economy, address climate change,..


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Date: 1870 ca.
Description: Elevated view looking down Court Street in Janesville toward the west.
Date: 1965 ca.
Description: Photographic postcard of the exterior view of the Colonel Robert H. Morse Library at Beloit College.
Date: 1919 ca.
Description: Hotel Myers, in downtown Janesville. Richard Lloyd Jones was born in Janesville in 1873 and lived there until his father, Rev. Jenkin Lloyd Jones moved th...
Date: 1924 ca.
Description: Cooksville School Class. Teacher Lloyd Porter (top row). First row: Arthur Julseth, Alvin Nording, Walter Weber, _______ Moe, Freddie Zinn, Tollef Lunde, C...
Date: 1876 ca.
Description: Family around table in yard, with woman knitting and dog nearby. Small stone house behind wood fence. The house has a small frame addition, probably a kitc...
Date: 1905 ca.
Description: View of the Grange Store on Main Street East.
Date: 1980-09
Description: Small house with screened-in porch. In the foreground is a fenced-in garden surrounding a telephone pole.
Date: date unknown
Description: An ink and water color on paper, hand-drawn map showing the section divisions in the southern half of the Janesville Township (Township 3 North, Range 12 E...
Description: View across lawn of First Congregational Church. The view is perhaps taken from a park, which has trees and benches in the foreground.
Date: 1910 ca.
Description: The Rock County Insane Asylum.
Photographs of Public Libraries in Wisconsin
Date: 1909 ca.
Description: Colorized postcard of the exterior view of a high school. Students are sitting on the front steps.
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Description: This map includes an index of streets and schools and also shows parks, schools and public lands, and industrial sites. Portions of the map are in green an...
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Description: Exterior of building located at East Church Street.
Description: View of the William Porter house. It was built and designed by Lucas Bradley in the cottage Gothic style in 1855.
Description: Two boys raise the United States and Wisconsin flags in front of their Rock County school.
Date: 1925
Description: The Clausen farm house, residence of C.L. Clausen.
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June, 2014
James D. Hoiness, 84, of Red Lodge, formerly of Billings, died Tuesday, June 3, 2014. Memorial services will be held at 2 p.m. Friday, June 6 at the Red Lodge Community Church. A reception will follow at the Beartooth Elks Lodge. Cremation has taken place. Smith-Olcott Funeral Chapel is assisting with the...
Catherine (Rena) Marchello, 92, of Red Lodge, passed away on May 28, 2014, at The Retreat in Polson, of natural causes with family by her side. She was born on Jan. 17, 1922, in Bearcreek, to Louis and Angelina Delaurenti. As a young girl she lived with her family in Bearcreek and was educated in the Bearcreek public school. While in High School...
Our beautiful Mom, grandmother and great-grandmother Arlene Aune Harris, age 94, passed away on May 25, 2014, at the Village Senior Residence. She was born Dec. 1, 1919, in Red Lodge, to Finnish immigrants Otto Puutio and Aino Hamalainen Puutio. She had one sister, Tahka Elizabeth (Betty) Miller. When she and her sister started school, they rode...
Katherine Zinda, age 85 of Glendive, passed away on Saturday, May 23, 2014 at the Eastern Montana Veterans Home in Glendive. Visitation were held from 1 p.m. – 5 p.m. and from 6 p.m. – 8 p.m. on Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at the Silvernale-Silha Funeral Home in Glendive. A Vigil Service was at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, May 27, 2014 at...
To the Editor, At the May 24 forum, every Republican candidate rejected the effort to expand Medicaid to the low income in Montana. This is an estimated 70,000 who are not eligible to purchase insurance on the new health care exchanges. The Affordable Care Act aka "Obamacare" meant for states to expand Medicaid coverage to cover this...
To the Editor, Wild turkeys and other wildlife make driving through Red Lodge a magical experience. Other towns have historical hotels, excellent restaurants and quaint business districts. What keeps visitors from all over the world coming back time after time is the wildlife. The wild turkeys and other wildlife were in the Red Lodge area before...
Photo by Alastair Baker Above, Kelley Evans, CEO of Beartooth Billings Clinic, is supported by no less than four Chaplins (Bill George, Kevin Larson, Tony Christensen, and Nate Anderson) prior to the live auction at the 19th Annual Hospital Ball at Rock Creek Resort last weekend. The Stars were out in force; the likes of 'Tom Cruise...
To the Editor, As Kid's Corner enters a new era under an all-volunteer model, we wish to say a special thanks to Cynthia Rozamus for her three years of tireless and dedicated service. Once the idea, site, and mission statement for the non-profit were established, Cynthia took those general parameters, filled in the details, and turned the...
2014 Federal Primary Unofficial Results U.S. Senate John Walsh (D) 424 Dirk Adams (D) 75 John Bohlinger (D) 169 Susan Cundiff (R) 132 Steve Daines (R) 1,382 Champ Edmunds (R) 121 Roger Roots (Libertarian) U.S. Congress Elsie Arntzen (R)) 132 Matt Rosendale (R) 436 Corey Stapleton (R) 551 Drew Turiano (R) 27 Ryan Zinke (R) 502 John Driscoll (D) 212...


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Determining relative importance of variables in developing and validating predictive models
Multiple regression models are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines and automated model selection procedures are frequently used to identify independent predictors. However, determination of relative importance of potential predictors and validating the fitted models for their stability, predictive accuracy and generalizability are often overlooked or not done thoroughly.
Using a case study aimed at predicting children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who are at low risk of Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS), we propose and compare two strategies, bootstrapping and random split of data, for ordering potential predictors according to their relative importance with respect to model stability and generalizability. We also propose an approach based on relative increase in percentage of explained variation and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for developing models where variables from our ordered list enter the model according to their importance. An additional data set aimed at identifying predictors of prostate cancer penetration is also used for illustrative purposes.
Age is chosen to be the most important predictor of TLS. It is selected 100% of the time using the bootstrapping approach. Using the random split method, it is selected 99% of the time in the training data and is significant (at 5% level) 98% of the time in the validation data set. This indicates that age is a stable predictor of TLS with good generalizability. The second most important variable is white blood cell count (WBC). Our methods also identified an important predictor of TLS that was otherwise omitted if relying on any of the automated model selection procedures alone. A group at low risk of TLS consists of children younger than 10 years of age, without T-cell immunophenotype, whose baseline WBC is < 20 × 109/L and palpable spleen is < 2 cm. For the prostate cancer data set, the Gleason score and digital rectal exam are identified to be the most important indicators of whether tumor has penetrated the prostate capsule.
Our model selection procedures based on bootstrap re-sampling and repeated random split techniques can be used to assess the strength of evidence that a variable is truly an independent and reproducible predictor. Our methods, therefore, can be used for developing stable and reproducible models with good performances. Moreover, our methods can serve as a good tool for validating a predictive model. Previous biological and clinical studies support the findings based on our selection and validation strategies. However, extensive simulations may be required to assess the performance of our methods under different scenarios as well as check their sensitivity to a random fluctuation in the data.
Regression models have long been used in medicine, clinical epidemiology, health services research, pharmaceutical research, social sciences and business studies. Their application has greatly increased in the past few decades
Despite the fact that predictive models are commonly used in wide range of scientific disciplines, they are frequently presented inadequately
Validity of predictive models as well as their application in the general population highly depends on their goodness of fit
There are different methods for developing predictive models and it is very challenging to maintain balance between including too many variables (and risk loss of precision) and omitting important variables (and risk biased prediction)
The ultimate goal of developing a predictive model is to use the model for predicting future outcomes in a much larger, broader and heterogeneous population. It is important to note that accurate models that perform extremely well may perform poorly outside the data set they are built on. In fact, the performance of a predictive model is overestimated if determined on data used to construct the model and may not be reliable for the larger population
In this paper, we propose two different approaches for ordering potential predictors according to their relative importance with respect to model stability and generalizability. We use the concept of explained variation and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for developing models and in determining how many predictors to include in final model. We illustrate the approaches using a study conducted by Truong and colleagues
Motivating case studies
To illustrate model selection and validation methods presented in this paper, data and statistical results from previous two studies are considered. Here we give brief descriptions of the original studies. For more details about the data and the statistical analyses performed, we refer the reader to the original papers
Case Study 1 - Prediction of children at low risk for Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS)
With the long-term aim of a risk-stratified approach to the prevention of Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS), the study was originally performed to describe the prevalence and predictors of TLS in childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL) and develop a sensitive prediction rule to identify patients at low risk of TLS
In this paper, we consider the primary outcome, i.e., presence or absence of TLS. In total, 328 patients (of which 74 are TLS cases) were included in the study. Potential predictors included in the model consist of 1) Laboratory features: white blood cell count (WBC ≥ 20 × 109/L) and presence of T-cell immunophenotype 2) Clinical indicators: presence of mediastinal mass, hepatomegaly(palpable liver ≥ 3 cm) and splenomegaly (palpable spleen ≥ 2 cm), and 3) Demographic characteristics: age (≥ 10 years) and sex.
Case Study 2 - Prostate Cancer Study
The main objective of the original study was to determine whether variables measured at a baseline exam can be used to predict whether the tumor has penetrated the prostate capsule. A total of 380 subjects are considered of which 153 had a cancer that penetrated the prostate capsule. Variables included in the study are age, race, results of digital rectal exam(DPROS), detection of capsular involvement in rectal exam(DCAPS), prostate specific antigen (PSA), tumor volume from ultrasound (VOLUME) and total Gleason score. We refer the reader to
Proposed methods and analytical strategies
We propose two approaches for ordering variables according to their relative importance with respect to model stability and generalizability. A predictive model is then constructed using explained variation and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve where variables from our ordered list enter the model according to their relative importance. Increase in explained variation as well as the area under the ROC curve is used to determine the number of variables included in the final model.
Bootstrapping for model selection
Bootstrapping is a modern, computer-intensive re-sampling approach which allows simulation of test data sets that mimic the initial original data set and the technique has been used successfully in a wide range of applications
Here we propose the use of bootstrapping for ordering potential predictors according to their importance. We took one thousand bootstrap samples from the original data. On each bootstrap sample, we applied three most commonly used automated model selection procedures (forward, backward and stepwise) where all candidate variables are included at the initial stage of the analysis. Candidate variables are, then, ordered according to their importance, where the variable chosen most frequently is ranked first.
After the initial ordering of the candidate predictors using bootstrapping, our final predictive model is constructed using a stepwise procedure where the top ranked variable from our ordered list enters the model first. Variables are then sequentially added to the model according to their relative importance. At each stage, we calculate the improvement in the predictive accuracy of the model, measured by the percentage of explained variation and area under the ROC curve.
Random Split of Data
The bootstrap approach described above addresses the issue of variable stability. However, model reproducibility is also another important criterion since models are often developed with the aim of predicting future outcomes. We considered variables to be reproducible or generalizable if their predictive power can be generalized to new data set. That is, the model consisting of these variables not only have a good predictive power for the data set the model is built on, but also its performance (with respect to predictive power) can be generalized in predicting future outcomes. Here we propose an approach for model selection that not only considers model stability but also generalizability and reproducibility. We randomly split the original data evenly into training and validation data sets. This step is repeated one thousand times. We use the training data sets to build the models and validate the selected models using the validation data sets. All candidate variables are considered and potential predictors are selected using forward, backward and stepwise selection procedures using the training data sets. Moreover, for each random split of data, we checked if the selected predictors are significant in the validation data set. The variables are then ordered according to their relative importance, where the importance of a variable is measured by the proportion (s) it is selected as a predictor and as well as the proportion (
That is, if we define two events such that A = variable is selected using an automated model selection procedure based on the training data set, B = variable is significant using the validation data set. Then, A & B = variable is selected using the training data set and it is significant in the validation data set. What we are interested in is the probability of A & B. This probability, which incorporates stability and generalizability measures, can be estimated as the proportion at which a given variable is selected and is significant simultaneously. It is possible to show that this proportion is equivalent to s
Automated model selection procedures
Automated model selection procedures: backward elimination, forward selection and stepwise selection, are the three most commonly used variable selection procedures. In backward elimination, variables are eliminated from the full model based on a certain criteria mostly based on a decrease in R2or deviance. In forward selection, however, we start with an empty model and variables are added sequentially where, at each step, a variable that brings the largest increase in R2or deviance will be added in the model. Stepwise procedure is a variation of forward selection where variables are allowed to be eliminated from the model. The stopping rule, which is usually pre-specified, for all the three automated model selection procedures is based on significance at a specified level. For comprehensive overviews of automated model selection procedures, we refer the reader to
Percentage of explained variation
We use two measures of explained variation appropriate for binary outcome - direct and indirect
Five - fold cross validation
We performed 5-fold cross validation based on the original TLS data to check the performance of our approaches. That is, we randomly divided the data into five parts, estimate model parameters based on 4 of the 5 data sets and use the remaining one fold for validation. The randomization is repeated 5 times and prediction error is averaged over the five cross validations and the number of randomizations. By doing repeated cross-validation, it is possible to reduce variability and provide more stable estimates.
Case study 1
Table 1
Proportion (s) at which each of the variables entered the final model and average p-value for three automated model selection procedures based on one thousand bootstrap samples
Forward selection
Backward selection
Stepwise selection
Baseline WBC
T-cell immunophenotype
Mediastinal mass
After the initial ordering of the candidate predictors using bootstrapping, our final predictive model for identifying patients at low risk for TLS is constructed using a stepwise procedure where the top ranked variable enters the model first. We calculate the improvement in the predictive accuracy of the model, measured by the percentage of explained variation and area under the ROC curve, at each stage to see if the next variable needs to be included in the model. Table
Table 2
Cumulative percentage of explained variation and area under ROC obtained by including the variables in the model according to the order of importance as given in Table 1.
Percentage area
under ROC curve
Baseline WBC
T-cell immunophenotype
Mediastinal mass
A model with the first four variables explained 27.18% with area under ROC curve 81.3%. The increases in percentage variation as well as area under ROC curve are negligible after the first four variables have been included in the model. A final model with a good predictive accuracy (area under ROC = 81.3%) can be constructed using the first 4 variables. Group of children at low risk of TLS can, therefore, be defined as absence of age, baseline WBC, splenomegaly and T-cell immunophenotype. That is, children younger than 10 with absence of T-cell immunophenotype, whose baseline WBC < 20 × 109/L and a palpable spleen < 2 cm, are at low risk for TLS. It is important to note that this model is different from the one constructed in the original study where the predictors in the final model are age, baseline WBC, splenomegaly and mediastinal mass. The last variable is the second last variable in our ordering.
As can be seen from Table
The results from the random split approach where variables are ordered according to
Table 3
The proportion at which a given variable is selected in the training set and is significant in the validation set after randomly splitting the data 1000 times
Baseline WBC
T-cell immunophenotype
Mediastinal mass
The same ordering is obtained using all of the three model selection procedures where age and baseline WBC are selected as the first two important predictors (Table
Table 4
Percentage of explained variation and area under ROC obtained by including the variables in the model according to the order of importance given in Table 3.
Percentage area
under ROC curve
Baseline WBC
T-cell immunophenotype
Mediastinal mass
The results presented in Table
The model with the first 5 variables explains about 28% of the variation and the area under the ROC curve is 81.5. However, the contribution of mediastinal mass towards the total variation as well as area ROC is very small once T-cell immunophenotype is included in the model. This might be an indication that these two variables are highly correlated and hence some of the contribution of mediastinal mass is already accounted for by T-cell immunophenotype. We used a chi-square test to investigate the relationship between these two variables and the results indeed show a very strong association (p-value < 0.0001). As a result, including both of the variables in the final model is not only unnecessary but also introduces multicolinearity to the model. From Tables
It is also important to note that, T-cell immunophenotype, which is selected as the third most important variable using the random split and the fourth important variable in the bootstrapping was excluded from the model proposed in the original paper
We used 5-fold cross validation to assess the performance of the models elected based on the bootstrapping and random split approaches. Recall that both approaches produced the same model - a predictive model consisting of age, baseline WBC, T-cell immunophenotype and splenomegaly. We also consider the model proposed in the original paper for comparison purposes. Their model is based on age, baseline WBC, Mediastinal mass and Splenomegaly
The results from our analysis show that the model selected using our approach has a slightly less prediction error (0.17) than the model proposed in the original paper (0.19). The corresponding ROC values for the two models are 81.3% and 81.1%, respectively. This indicates that the model proposed in the original paper performs well in general and has good generalizability. However, an important variable was omitted from the model as discussed earlier. Moreover, the original model consisting of age, baseline WBC, mediastinal mass and splenomegaly, was not validated although some goodness of fit properties were reported. The approaches proposed in this paper and the statistical results from the analysis can, therefore, be used as a confirmation for the performance of the proposed model and its appropriateness for practical use.
Case study 2
As a second case study we considered a prostate cancer data set briefly described in the previous section. Bar graphs showing relative importance of variables using our two approaches are presented in Figures
Figure 1
Relative importance of variables for the prostate cancer data, measured using the percentage of selection out of 1000 bootstrap samples
Relative importance of variables for the prostate cancer data, measured using the percentage of selection out of 1000 bootstrap samples.
Figure 2
Relative importance of predictors for the prostate cancer data using the random split approach
Relative importance of predictors for the prostate cancer data using the random split approach.
Since the data is relatively larger than case study 1 and also has a larger event rate, we divided the data set in to training and validation where we set aside 1/3rdof the data for validation purposes. For the training set, a model consisting of the first two important variables, Gleason score and digital rectal exam, gave area under the ROC = 84.2%. This value increased to just 85.3%when PSA is added to the model. When testing using the validation data(the 1/3 rd data set aside in the beginning), the area under the ROC increased from 74.2% to 75.6% indicating that although PSA seems to be an independent predictor for this particular data set, it may not be a good predictor for future data and hence non reproducible. This finding is supported by previous studies that have shown that, although PSA is negatively associated with cancer penetration, it was not able to predict pathological features in clinically localized prostate cancer in the overall population
Predictive models are used frequently in medical research and automated model selection procedures are traditionally used for identifying predictors. However, assessing model fit and validation of the selected models are rarely performed or not done thoroughly, if done at all. Moreover, models selected using automated procedures often include noise variables that have little or no relationship with the outcome variable. Similarly, important variables might be omitted.
In this paper we proposed two approaches for ordering candidate variables according to measures incorporating model stability and generalizability. In our first approach, we used bootstrapping and defined variable importance as the proportion a given variable is selected and hence leads to models that are more stable than models selected using only automated procedures. This method is similar to that of Austin and Tu
We used the concept of explained variation and area under ROC where the most important variable enters the model first and variables are added until the improvement in explained variation as well as area under the curve is negligible. This is particularly important when the number of candidate variables is very large and one has to select the first top most important variables. The issue of how small the improvement has to be, in order to decide the number of variables entering the final model, is a very challenging task. In this paper, we used an approximate cutoff point using plots similar to scree plot in principal component analysis which allows us to visually assess the point where the improvement becomes negligible. However, it might be interesting to develop a test statistic based on the percentage increase in explained variation and/or area under the ROC curve. One can, thus, test if the improvement is statistically significant or not. This is a topic we would like to investigate in future research.
It is important to note that, the original childhood leukemia study presented in this paper is well designed where candidate predictors were selected after a thorough investigation of their clinical relationship with the outcome variable. Consequently, not much difference was observed between the performance of the original model and the model constructed using our approaches. However, the results in this paper indicate that even in such well designed study an important variable could be omitted if relying on automated model selection procedures alone. This indicates that researchers should be more cautious when using automated procedures and they are encouraged to use re-sampling techniques along with these procedures.
Application of our approaches to the prostate cancer data set identified two variables as important predictors of whether tumor has penetrated the prostate capsule. These variables have been previously identified as powerful indicators of tumor penetration and prostate cancer death supporting our findings. Moreover, prostate specific antigen (PSA), which was ranked as the third important variable based on the bootstrap approach, was not identified as an important variable in using our random split approach. This indicates that PSA, although associated with prostate cancer, is not a reproducible predictor of tumor penetration and hence not helpful for predicting for patients outside the study population. This finding is also supported by previous biological and clinical studies.
In conclusion, automated model selection procedures may result in the inclusion of noise variables and unstable models. Our proposed methods and analytical strategies can be used to assess variable stability and reproducibility and hence may lead to more robust models with favorable predictive performance. However, extensive simulation is needed to study the operating characteristic of our approaches in a more general setting. We plan to pursue this in future research.
Competing interests
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Authors' contributions
JB contributed to the conception and design of the study, interpretation of data and drafting of the manuscript. EGA contributed to the conception and design of the study, analysis and interpretation of data. JSH contributed to the conception and design of the study, interpretation of data and drafted the manuscript. TT helped with critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content. LS contributed to the conception of the study, acquisition of data and helped with critical revision of the manuscript for important intellectual content. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
We would like to gratefully acknowledge a seed grant support provided by the Research Institute of the Hospital for Sick Children for the establishment of the Biostatistics Methodology Unit(BMU).
Statistics in medical journals: development in the 1980s
Logistic regression models in medical research are poorly presented
What do you mean by validating a prognostic model?
Features at presentation predict children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia at low risk for tumor lysis syndrome
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Tumor classification by partial least squares using microarray gene expression data
Predictive models for breast cancer susceptibility from single nucleotide polymorphisms
Integrated modeling of clinical and gene expression information for personalized prediction of disease out comes
A prediction model for lung cancer diagnosis that integrates genomic and clinical features
Towards integrated clinic-genomic models for personalized medicine: combining gene expression signatures and clinical factors in breast cancer outcomes prediction
Evaluation of logistic regression reporting in current obstetrics and gynecology literature
An appraisal of multivariable logistic models in pulmonary and critical care literature
The risk of determining risk with multivariable models
Statistical reviewing policies of medical journals: caveat lector?
Predictive accuracy and explained variation
Internal Validation of Predictive Models: Efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis
Methods of variable selection in regression modeling
Backward, forward and stepwise automated subset selection algorithms: Frequency of obtaining authentic and noise variables
Can the strengths of AIC and BIC be shared? A conflict between model indentification and regression estimation
Statistical Modeling: The two cultures
Bootstrap confidence intervals: when, which, what? A practical guide for medical statisticians
A bootstrap resampling procedure for model building: Applicatioon to the Cox regression model
Bootstrap methods for developing predictive models
Automated variable selection methods for logistic regression produced unstable models for predicting acute myocardial infarction mortality
Selection of subsets of regression variables
The analysis and selection of variables in linear regression
Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research
Gleason score as predictor of clinicopathologic findings and biochemical (PSA) progression following radical prostatectomy
How well does the Gleason score predict prostate cancer death? A 20-year follow up of a population based cohort in Sweden
Use of Percent Free Prostate-Specific Antigen as a Predictor of the Pathological Features of Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer
Preoperative serum prostate specific antigen does not reflect biochemical failure rates after radical prostatectomy in men with large volume cancers
Pre-publication history
The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:


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iHerb Customer Reviews
Savings of: $7.48 (30% off)
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Archive for 2012
April 18th, 2012 by admin
Celebrating the Unseen Woman
April 4th, 2012 by admin
Believing In All Good
March 27th, 2012 by admin
Holly on the Hill
March 18th, 2012 by admin
The Art of Education
As the Director of Education at Brigham Young University's Museum of Art, Ann Lambson has made it her life's work to connect people with art. She uses museum education to engage the local community with art in ways that are accessible and meaningful. Raised in a family that encouraged education and creative thinking, Ann believes the arts are essential to holistic learning and fundamental to who we are as children of God.
March 5th, 2012 by admin
Always In Style
Trained as a doctor, Jenny Sato abandoned her medical practice when she left her native China to marry her Japanese husband. Now in Yokohama, Jenny is engaged in volunteer work and lending her varied talents to the expatriate community there. She focuses on her new membership in the Gospel and her 12-year-old son.
March 1st, 2012 by admin
A Woman of Character
A popular professor at Brigham Young University, Susan Easton Black was the first female full-time professor in the school's religion department. When Susan become a single mother to three sons, she was forced to evaluate how to best provide for her young family. In her academic pursuits, Susan rediscovered her childhood love of church history stories and has crafted a vibrant career for herself which includes her most recent publication, Women of Character, which profiles a hundred well-known LDS women through our history.
February 22nd, 2012 by admin
"Just Go For A Year and See"
February 14th, 2012 by admin
A Worldwide Sisterhood
Judy Dushku has built a life and career that suits her unique identity, although some may perceive contradictions in the multiple facets of her life: she was a single mother of four children who managed to introduce her children to world travel and people of many cultures; she is a stake Relief Society president whose husband is not a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints; she is an accomplished academic and the founder of a nonprofit in Uganda that works with survivors of war. She describes how her life has evolved, the choices that have shaped her path, and the importance of sisterhood along the way.
February 8th, 2012 by admin
Taught In All the Learning
Born in Bolivia and raised in California, Dayan traveled the challenging road of becoming the first college graduate in her family. She knew she wanted to help young people like herself who had great potential, but often lacked the knowledge of how to go to college. Inspired by her 2007 Brigham Young University Thesis project, she founded Teens ACT, a nonprofit that helps at-risk students go to college.
February 1st, 2012 by admin
A Conscious Focus
Families with trans-racial adopted children are becoming more common, both within the LDS community and without. But what is it like to grow up as that child in a family that doesn't look like you? This anonymous perspective, from an Asian woman adopted into a white family as a baby, shares the pain and joy of being adopted into a trans-racial family.
January 13th, 2012 by admin
Flunking Sainthood
Jana Riess was baptized in her final year of study at Princeton Theological Seminary. Her career plan to be a Protestant pastor derailed by her conversion, she now is an editor for a religious publishing house, teaches college, and writes about religion. Her most recent book, Flunking Sainthood, is a memoir about a year's journey through spiritual practices.


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Aaaahhh....Where do I begin? We stayed 3 nights at this wonderful B&B, and we absolutely enjoyed everything. The rooms were immaculate; The breakfasts were unsurpassed; and the hosts, Maria and Joe, were extremely hospitable. We have no complaints and look forward to a return trip next year.
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- Inhabitat – Green Design, Innovation, Architecture, Green Building - http://inhabitat.com -
Prefab Bornego College is a Sustainable School Made With Recycled Bricks in The Netherlands
Posted By Bridgette Meinhold On October 7, 2012 @ 5:02 am In Architecture,carousel showcase,energy efficiency,Environment,Gallery,Green Building,Innovation,Prefab Housing,Recycled Materials | No Comments
This new facility for Bornego College in Heerenveen in The Netherlands is an example of how to create a sustainable and cost effective project. Designed by HVDN and Studioninedots, the energy-efficient building accomodates a variety of uses with classrooms, lockers, study areas and a sports hall. Prefabricated concrete elements drastically reduced construction time and recycled bricks adorn the exterior.
Bornego College [2] commissioned HVDN [3] and Studioninedots [4] to design and build a new facility for their first year students in a spot adjacent to the school. The goal of the new building, besides providing useful space for the school, was to create a cost-effective, energy efficient and sustainable school. The designers chose to keep the building's footprint compact to minimize effects on the site and maximize energy use and daylighting [5]. Slightly sunk into the earth, the three-story building has a taller ground floor and is protected by the earth.
Classrooms and study areas are situated around the perimeter of the building and anchored by an atrium that extends through each floor. A large skylight pulls light into the interior and—with the help of the sculptural staircase—connects each floor and all the rooms together. This atrium also helps dissipate heat from the classrooms, thus reducing the need for ducts and subsequent costs. Prefabricated concrete elements reduced construction time and the facade is clad in recycled bricks [6]. To create unity across the multi-colored bricks, they plastered the exterior with a light grey concrete. Finally, daylighting in each of the rooms reduces artificial lighting and the golden frames, which contrast well with the exterior, help reflect light inside.
+ Studioninedots [4]
Via ArchDaily [7]
Images ©Studioninedots
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[2] Bornego College: http://www.bornego.nl/
[3] HVDN: http://www.hvdn.nl/
[4] Studioninedots: http://www.studioninedots.nl/
[5] daylighting: http://inhabitat.com/daylighting
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[7] ArchDaily: http://www.archdaily.com/277152/bornego-college-hvdn-studioninedots/
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