text:
GeoSpatial Visual Analytics: Geographical Information Processing and Visual Analytics for Environmental Security / Edition 1by Raffaele de Amicis
Pub. Date: 07/21/2009
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
"The extremely wide range of often multidimensional environmental information made available at the global scale poses a great challenge to technologists and scientists and intelligence specialists, to find extremely sophisticated yet effective ways to provide access to very relevant data patterns within such a vast and highly dynamic information flow." "In the… See more details below
"The extremely wide range of often multidimensional environmental information made available at the global scale poses a great challenge to technologists and scientists and intelligence specialists, to find extremely sophisticated yet effective ways to provide access to very relevant data patterns within such a vast and highly dynamic information flow." "In the past years the domain of 3D scientific visualization has tried to provide a viable solution to operators willing to gain insight into the simulation results in a way that eases understanding of an evolving phenomenon. However 3D data visualization alone does not provide model and hypothesis-making and validation. In order to answer to this issue, in recent years research trends have brought to an effective combination of data mining and information visualization, often referred to as Visual Analytics (VA)." "The main goal of this volume is to pin-point critical issues, to define a priority list to be addressed by the research agenda as well as to put forward recommendations and guidelines. The resulting volume tackles a wide range of application domains, all relevant to environmental security, it highlights current industrial trends, technological requirements and, last but not least, possible emerging market interests." This book was written for environmental security experts, intelligence specialists, scientists in the field of environmental security, visual analytics and geographic information technologies, administrators and policy makers.
Product Details
- 9789048128976
- Publisher:
- Springer Netherlands
- Publication date:
- 07/21/2009
- Series:
- NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security
- Edition description:
- 2009
- Pages:
- 508
- Product dimensions:
- 9.21(w) x 6.14(h) x 1.13(d)
Table of ContentsForeword
Spatial Data Infrastructures.- A Showcase of Spatial Data Infrastructures and Related Technologies.- Towards Interoperable Environmental Security Applications – the Role of Open Geospatial Service Platform.- Signal and Data Processing.- Sorting Spatial Data by Spatial Occupancy.- GIS Model Applications for Sustainable Development and Environmental Planning at the Regional Level.- Application of Neural Networks in Image Processing and Visualization.- Data Processing for Heavy Metals Accumulation in Urban Areas.- A Multi-Criteria Decision Making Conceptual Approach to Optimal Landfill Monitoring.- Time-Frequency Analysis for SAR and ISAR Imaging.- Processing of Multichannel Remote Sensing Data for Environment Monitoring.- Earth Observation and Remote Sensing.- Exploiting Earth Observation Missions: Opportunities and Issues in Ground Segment Interfaces Harmonization.- Data Filtering and Data Fusion in Remote Sensing Systems.- Soil Mapper® Multi-Sensor and Multi-Temporal Applications for Semantic-Based Image Information Mining.- Cooperative Decentralization: a New Way to Build an Added Value Chain with Shared Multi- Resolution Satellite and Aerial Imagery and GeoInformation.- Cosmo/Skymed to Support MGCP Mapping.- Scientific Visualization.- Visual Processing of Geographic and Environmental Information in the Basque Country: Two Basque Case Studies.- Dynamic Terrains: Cities and Real-Time Video on Gigantic Terrain Models.- Digital Terrain Models: a Tool for Establishing Reliable and Qualitative Environmental Control Processes.- Advanced Clustering Analysis for Environmental Indicators.- SOKNOS - an Interactive Visual Emergency Management Framework.- Visual Analytics.- GeoSpatial Visual Analytics.- GIS & Visual Analytics on Grid Technology.- Wildland Fire & Flood Emergency Management.- Visual Analytics for the Strategic Decision Making Process.- Visual Analysis of Public Discourse on Environmental Issues .- Exploring Environmental News Via Geospatial Interfaces and Virtual Globes .- Spatio-Temporal Visualization for Environmental Decision Support.- Virtual Worlds and Spinning Globes.- Application of Virtual Worlds to Environmental Security.- Geographic Information Processing: Standards-Based Open Source Visualization Technology for Environmental Understanding.- SkylineGlobe: 3D Web GIS Solutions for Environmental Security and Crisis Management.- Continental, National Regional, Local Experiences - Case Studies.- The Challenge of a Spatial Data Infrastructure for the Mediterranean Islands.- A Distributed Real-Time Monitoring System for Landslide Hazard and Risk Assessment.- Validity of Drastic and SI Vulnerability Methods.- Environmental Security and Pastoralism.- Investigation Processes at the Kato Souli Basin.- Study of the Impact of Soil Conservation Structures to Preserve Soil through the Use of GIS.- Data Access for Environment Protection and Economic Development.- Remote and in Situ Sensing for Dike Monitoring: the IJkdijk Experience.- Political, Economical and Social Factors in the Protection of the Environment.- Environmental Protection Vs. Eco & Environmental Terrorism: Threats, Impact and Contingency Plans.- Geopolitics and Environmental Security.- Illegal Trafficking of Waste in the Light of National and International Legislation.-
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text:
Can anyone tell me HOW new Omeprazole with MAGESIUM is different from the one without?
- Posted:
- 28 May 2010 by tlwbetz
- Topics:
- omeprazole
Answers (1)
31 May 2010
Its all in the "marketing" - theres really not much difference at all. Omeprazole magnesium is the "salt" that is used to make the tablet. When the salt dissolves in our bodies it releases the omeprazole to our system - the magnesium is just the "vehicle".
Other omeprazole salts can also be used. Different salt forms will have slightly different properties.
For example Omeprazole magnesium tablets may be taken with food or on an empty stomach. Other omeprazole salts such as Losec should be taken immediately before meals.
Hope this helps.
Read more: http://www.drugs.com/mmx/omeprazole-magnesium.html#ixzz0pUWyjFjY
Further Information
- Omeprazole Information for Consumers
- Omeprazole Information for Healthcare Professionals (includes dosage details)
- Side Effects of Omeprazole (detailed)
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text:
|Numéro de publication
|Type de publication
|Numéro de demande
|Date de publication
|24 avr. 2001
|Date de dépôt
|7 avr. 1998
|Date de priorité
|7 avr. 1998
|État de paiement des frais
|Autre référence de publication
|Numéro de publication
|Randy G. Goldberg, Roy Philip Weber
|Cessionnaire d'origine
|At&T Corp.
|Exporter la citation
|BiBTeX, EndNote, RefMan
|Citations de brevets (11), Référencé par (33), Classifications (16), Événements juridiques (4)
|Liens externes: USPTO, Cession USPTO, Espacenet
The present invention is directed to speech recognition. More particularly, the present invention is directed to speech recognition of a caller identifier using location information.
Many institutions, such as banks and airlines, allow customers and other callers to access over the telephone a wide variety of services and account information. Before the advent of touch-tone telephones, a caller would obtain these services and information through interacting with a live operator. As touch-tone telephones became more prevalent in homes, these institutions began switching to automated caller-access systems. After dialing a telephone number, a caller using such systems would be asked to enter an identifier or confirmation number. An identifier typically comprises a string of alphanumeric characters.
When using touch-tone phones with an automated caller-access system, a caller can enter an identifier by sequentially pressing a series of keys provided on the telephone keypad. Each pressed key corresponds to a different character in the identifier. The pressing of these keys produces a series of tones that are provided over a telephone network to the institution. At the institution, the series of tones are decoded to produce the entered identifier, and if the identifier entered by the caller is determined to correspond to a valid identifier, then the caller is allowed to enter commands, again through the telephone keypad, that provide access to whatever services are offered by the institution.
Recently, automated caller-access systems have eliminated the use of telephone keypads to obtain the identity of a valid caller. Instead of entering an identifier through a telephone keypad, a caller is prompted to speak the identifier into the telephone handset. For example, the caller may speak into the telephone the identifier "JB123E". The caller's voice signal is transmitted over the phone lines to the institution, which employs a speech recognition system to produce a recognized identifier that is intended to correspond exactly to the identifier spoken by the caller.
However, such exact correspondence is difficult to attain due to, for example, the deterioration of voice signals that routinely occurs over conventional telephone lines, and the different ways the same words are pronounced by different users. Because of these problems, the speech recognizer may confuse similar sounding letters and numbers. Thus, a speech recognizer may confuse the letter "A" with the number "8", the letter "K", or the letter "J". Similarly, the speech recognizer may confuse the letter "C" with the letter "D" or the number "3". For example, given that a caller speaks the identifier "JB123E" into a telephone, the speech recognizer may produce "AE123D" as an output.
In order to compensate for inaccuracies, many speech recognition systems used by businesses must request that a caller pronounce the word multiple times, or be subject to various confirmation routines. This can be time consuming and frustrating to the caller.
Based on the foregoing, there is a need for a speech recognition system that has an increased caller identifier recognition accuracy compared to known speech recognition systems.
The present invention is a speech recognition system for recognizing a caller identifier received during a telephone call as a speech signal from a caller. The system generates a plurality of caller identifier choices from the speech signal and receives location information of the caller. The system includes a database on which is stored a plurality of caller identifiers indexed to a plurality of location information. The system queries a database based on the received location information and retrieves one or more caller identifiers from the database. The system then selects the recognized caller identifier from the plurality of caller identifier choices based on the retrieved one or more caller identifiers.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a speech recognition system in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating some of the steps performed by one embodiment of the speech recognition system when recognizing a caller identifier received from a caller.
One embodiment of the present invention is a speech recognition system for recognizing customer or caller identifiers that uses the location of the caller to enhance the recognition accuracy. FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating a speech recognition system 90 in accordance with one embodiment of the present invention.
Speech recognition system 90 includes an I/O interface 30. I/O interface 30 interfaces system 90 to a user. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, I/O interface 30 is coupled through a network 20 to a telephone 10. Telephone 10 enables a user of system 90 to access system 90 by participating in a telephone call between telephone 10 and system 90. The user can transmit a speech signal to system 90 through telephone 10 as well as receive signals from system 90. Network 20 can be any network that enables the user at telephone 10 to dial a telephone number associated with system 90. For example, network 20 can be the Public Switched Telephone Network ("PSTN"), a local area network, the Internet, or an intranet.
Speech recognition system 90 further includes a processor 40 and an analog-to-digital ("A/D") converter 50 coupled to I/O interface 30. Processor 40 is programmed to execute the steps of the invention that are described in detail in conjunction with FIG. 2. A/D converter 50 converts analog speech signals received from I/O interface 30 into digital signals that are received by processor 40. Processor 40 is coupled to a database 60 and a memory device 70. Memory device stores retrieved caller identifiers 80 which are one or more caller identifiers that are retrieved from database 60.
Processor 40, in combination with A/D converter 50, is also programmed with known speech processing software to receive a speech signal generated from human utterances and generates multiple choices of words (referred to as "caller identifier choices" for the purpose of this patent) that represent the utterances. In one embodiment, for each caller identifier choice, a probability that the caller identifier choice is the correct caller identifier choice is also generated by the speech recognition software.
In one embodiment, processor 40 utilizes a Hidden Markov Model to generate a list of "N-best" choices. An example of this method of speech recognition is disclosed in U.S. Pat. No. 5,241,619, herein incorporated by reference. In another embodiment, processor 40 executes post-processing routines to generate multiple choices and associated probabilities for each choice. One example of such a post-processing routine is disclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 08/763,382, filed on Dec. 13, 1996 and entitled "Statistical Database Correction of Alphanumeric Account Numbers for Speech Recognition and Touch-Tone Recognition". Further, other known methods can be used by processor 40 to generate multiple caller identifier choices, and probabilities assigned to the caller identifier choices.
Speech processing system 90 is intended to be used by a business that has a plurality of customers that perform transactions from telephone 10. In one embodiment, each customer or caller is assigned a caller identifier. The term "identifier" refers to a string of characters that may comprise a plurality of letters, numbers, or both. One example of a caller identifier is a six digit identifier such as ZX147K.
Database 60 stores the name of each customer, or caller of the business that uses speech processing system 90 and location information associated with each caller. In one embodiment, the location information includes the telephone number (e.g., the caller's home telephone number), street address and Zip code of the caller. Database 60 also stores a caller identifier for each caller. The caller identifiers stored in database 60 are indexed to the location information. Therefore, queries can be made of database 60 based on location information. For example, all caller identifiers that belong to callers having Zip code "20852" can be retrieved from database 60. Further, for example, all caller identifiers that belong to callers having an area code "301" can be retrieved from database 60.
FIG. 2 is a flowchart illustrating some of the steps performed by one embodiment of speech recognition system 90 when recognizing a caller identifier received from a caller. In one embodiment, the steps are executed by processor 40 and stored as software in memory device 70. In other embodiments, the functions of the steps are performed using hardware, or a combination of hardware or software.
At step 100, a speech signal is received from the caller after the caller identifier is requested. The request can be in the form of a computer generated or recorded voice sent to the caller at telephone 10. For example, the request could be "Please say your caller identifier". The speech signal is generated by the caller's utterance in response to the request.
At step 110, system 90 generates a plurality of caller identifier choices based on the received speech signal. These choices are generated using the speech recognition hardware and software previously discussed. In one embodiment, associated with each choice is a probability as to whether that choice is the correct identifier.
At step 120, system 90 receives the telephone number that the caller is calling from, i.e., the telephone number associated with telephone 10. In one embodiment, system 90 receives the telephone number using an automatic number identification ("ANI") that is received with the telephone call. In other embodiment, other location information associated with the caller is received at step 120 (e.g., the caller's Zip code).
At step 130, database 60 is queried based on the telephone number received at step 120. If this telephone number matches a telephone number stored in database 60 (e.g., the caller is calling from home), then at least one caller identifier indexed to that telephone number will be retrieved from database 60. More than one caller may be retrieved from a single phone number because multiple identifiers may be indexed to the same caller identifier (e.g., each person in a family assigned the same telephone number has a different caller identifier). The retrieved caller identifiers are stored in memory 70 as retrieved caller identifiers 80.
At step 140, system 90 determines whether at least one caller identifier was retrieved at step 130. If no caller identifiers were retrieved, then the caller was calling from a phone number that is not stored in database 60. For example, the caller may be calling from a work number, and only home telephone numbers are store in database 60, or the caller may be calling from a pay phone.
If no caller identifiers were retrieved at step 140, at step 150 database 60 is again queried based on the area code of the telephone number received at step 120, or other location information. The other location information, such as the caller's Zip code or state of residence can be received by requesting the caller to say the information or having the caller enter the information using the telephone keypad. The retrieved caller identifiers from step 150 are stored in retrieved caller identifiers 80.
In the case of the query based on the area code, the retrieved caller identifiers have been assigned to callers in a similar geographic region as the telephone number received at 120. This can improve the recognition accuracy of system 90 because if a caller is not calling from their home telephone number, they are likely to be calling from a telephone number geographically close to their home. The other location information, such as the Zip code and the state of residence, will retrieve all caller identifier numbers that are assigned only to callers that live in the received Zip code or state. This will limit the number of possible caller identifiers that match the caller identifier spoken by the caller and will improve the accuracy of system 90.
At step 160, one of the caller identifier choices generated at step 110 is selected as the recognized caller identifier based on the caller identifiers retrieved at step 140 or step 150 and stored as retrieved caller identifiers 80. Retrieved caller identifiers 80 can be used in a variety of ways to improve the chances that the selected caller identifier choice is the correct caller identifier (i.e., the selected caller identifier choice matches the caller identifier spoken by the caller).
In one embodiment, processor 40 determines if any of the caller identifier choices match one of the retrieved caller identifiers 80. If there is a match, the matched caller identifier choice is selected as the recognized caller identifier. If there is not a match, in one embodiment none of the caller identifier choices are selected as the recognized caller identifier and the caller may be asked to repeat the word. In another embodiment, one of the unmatched caller identifier choices is selected using standard selection methods (e.g., selecting the caller identifier choice with the highest probability).
In another embodiment, the caller identifier choices are compared to retrieved caller identifiers 80 and the probabilities associated with each caller identifier choice are then modified based on whether each caller identifier choice matches one of the retrieved caller identifiers 80. For example, for each caller identifier choice that matches one of the retrieved caller identifiers 80, the probability associated with that caller identifier choice is tripled. One of the caller identifier choices is then selected using known methods of selecting the caller identifier choice with the highest probability. Other methods can be used to select one of the caller identifier choices based on retrieved caller identifiers 80.
As disclosed, the present invention utilizes location information to increase the recognition accuracy of a caller identifier. The location information can be directly extracted from the telephone call, as in the case of using ANI to receive the telephone number, or require additional input from the caller.
Several embodiments of the present invention are specifically illustrated and/or described herein. However, it will be appreciated that modifications and variations of the present invention are covered by the above teachings and within the purview of the appended claims without departing from the spirit and intended scope of the invention.
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|Classification aux États-Unis
|Classification internationale
|Classification coopérative
|Classification européenne
|7 avr. 1998
Owner name: AT&T CORP., NEW YORK
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To show you the most accurate prices, TTPM only displays our pricing tool on products which we've reviewed in the past three years.
Kids can throw a birthday party with the Servin' Surprises Birthday Set. It comes with four double-sided slices of cake (vanilla on one side, chocolate on the other), four decorative cake toppers, two cake plates, two forks, a cake spatula, a cake stand, and a "magic" blow-out candle. Lift up on the candle's lever to make the pretend candle flame appear. When you blow on the flame, it falls back into the candle. Then you can lift it up and do it all over again.
The Servin' Surprises Birthday Set is compatible with the Servin' Surprises Kitchen & Table, which is sold separately. Place the cake stand on the table to hear birthday phrases and songs.
Preschoolers will love decorating the cake and "blowing out" the candle with the Servin' Surprises Birthday Set. Kids will have fun pretending that it's someone's birthday and serving up the pretend cake pieces. This cute playset will engage kids in lots of imaginative play.
The Servin' Surprises Birthday Set is for ages 2 and up.
The "flame" on the candle is sensitive to motion, so once you've popped it up, be very careful or it will fall down before you've had a chance to blow it out. Sometimes lifting the flame and getting it to stay up can be difficult.
DC Super Hero Girls Slingshot Flying Supergirl
from Mattel
DC Super Hero Girls Slingshot Flying Batgirl
from Mattel
Batman v Superman Superman Child Costume
from Rubies
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows Leonardo's Conceal and Reveal Sword
from Playmates Toys
Batman v Superman Wonder Woman Child Costume
from Rubies
DC Super Hero Girls Supergirl Cape and Skirt
from Rubies
DC Super Hero Girls Batgirl Hooded Cape and Mask
from Rubies
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Out of the Shadows Extreme Battle Shell
from Playmates Toys
Barbie Kiss and Care Pet Doctor Set
from Just Play
Little Helper Dyson Ball Vacuum Cleaner
from Casdon


text:
TeeFury sells one limited edition T-shirt design every day and each shirt goes for the low low price of $9. It's a great model for doing screenprinted shirts, but even people like me with a vested interest in keeping up with T-Shirt news can't keep up with so many "daily" t-shirt sites. Thankfully Teefury sent out a note today alerting us to the upcoming designs and the dates they go on sale, very good idea I think.
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text:
Touch4: FS5
By FlipSide5, Inc.
Open iTunes to buy and download apps.
Touch4 is the easiest to use and most fun 4-in-a-row game on the planet!
"Touch4 is a fun, free app that lets you play the classic game....Gameplay is simple but satisfying, and Touch4 offers ample customization options, everything from different-size game boards to multiple AI skill levels."
"4 out of 5 Stars"
Connect the same four color chips in a row to win. Play multiple levels and be challenged playing this game or play against a friend.
- Now with peer-to-peer gaming over Bluetooth and Wi-Fi in iPhone OS 3.0!!
- Multi-player support over the INTERNET via WiFi, EDGE or 3G!
- Multi-player WiFi support over your WiFi LOCAL NETWORK!
- Send Instant Messages to your opponent
- 3 board sizes and 3 computer levels
- Undo, Hint and see Last Move Made supported!
- Saves wins and losses against every opponent including network and internet opponents!
- Accelerometer support; turn upside-down and watch the chips fall out the top!
- Auto-save feature to answer a phone call or check email during a game!
- See the country where your internet opponent is playing!
- Great graphics, sounds and user interface!!
What's New in Version 2.6.2
Bug fixes.
iPhone Screenshot
Customer Reviews
Online play against a computer
When there are few people playing online game, they have a computer play with you but they male it seem like it's a person. Suuuuuch a waste of time. Computer makes exactly the se moves each time and it's easy to beat but waste of time.
Almost Perfect
I play all the time (over 2000 games) I only wish the game told me my win percentage.
Used to be awesome
Key word words "USED TO BE"
Developer has quit this game and it crashes every time you try to play someone on the Internet after each game. Do NOT buy this game!! Tried contacting support and AUTOMATED response says to message them on Facebook. Did WEEKS ago and still NO RESPONSE!! I NEED a refund!!
- $1.99
- Category: Games
- Updated: Jul 23, 2009
- Version: 2.6.2
- Size: 5.3 MB
- Language: English
- Seller: FlipSide5, Inc.
- © 2008 FlipSide5 Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Compatibility: Requires iOS 2.1 or later. Compatible with iPhone, iPad, and iPod touch.


text:
© 2002-2016
Encyclopaedia Metallum
Best viewed
without Internet Explorer,
in 1280 x 960 resolution
or higher.
|Band members
|Guitars, Vocals, Keyboards
|Miscellaneous staff
|Anthony J. Roberts
|Anthony J. Roberts
|Exceptional Einsiedler.
|November 20th, 2009
Released as 12" (black or white), 12" gatefold, 12" with hoodie, CD and pro tape.
2010 re-released as a tour edition that comes in three different colours (red, blue, clear/green) each limited between 44-87 copies with white three panel gatefold cover.
Tape version by Terratur Possessions.
Album title translation (from German): Hermit
Song title translations (from German):
1. IX: The hermit
2. Spoiler/corrupter
Recording information:
Recorded under the Moon of Acid 2009.
Barcode and Other Identifiers:
Matrix / Runout (Side A, Stamped): -19464-
Matrix / Runout (Side A, Carved): ELDOR1100 Ván - 23 A DMM KO IN MEMORY OF STEINGRIM TORSON BRISSACH
Matrix / Runout (Side B, Carved): ELDOR1100 Ván - 23 B DMM KO IN MEMORY OF STEINGRIM TORSON BRISSACH
|Added by: MCMLXVI
|Modified by: The Red Tower
|Added on: 2009-05-07 14:12:11
|Last modified on: 2016-01-14 07:47:12


text:
The 20 Biggest Mistakes in the X-Men Movies
Kaley Cuoco Shows Off Her Tennis Skills
More X-Men: Apocalypse Photos from the Set
Will Christian Bale Ever Play Batman Again?
Netflix is About to Spend $50 Million On Something Awesome
The Worst Upcoming Movies Of The Next Five Years
10 Celebrities Who Quit Hollywood Forever
7 TV Time Jumps That Were Done Right
15 Original Netflix Series That You Should Be Watching
X-Men: Apocalypse Headed Back to Montreal for Reshoots
20 Movies You Need To Watch At Home This Week
The 10 Most Promising TV Shows of Fall 2015
The 15 Biggest Oscar Snubs Of The Past 20 Years
Sorry, Lamar: Khloe Kardashian, James Harden Seen Together At Hollywood Club
Movies You Didn't Know Were Blatant Rip-Offs
New Batman V Superman Possible Braniac Spoilers Revealed
16 Good Movies to Stream On Netflix in September 2015
Ridley Scott on Why Prometheus 2 is Now Alien: Paradise Lost
The Best Horror Movies of 2015
The Next 20 Star Wars Spin-Offs
Robert Downey Jr. Confirms Iron Man 4 is on the Way!
Why Ex Machina Flopped On The Big Screen
The Best Female Superheroes of All Time
Tom Hiddleston Reveals Why Loki Was Cut from Avengers: Age of Ultron
6 TV Finales That Failed Spectacularly
Game Of Thrones Season 6 Delayed!
The Voice of Gideon from The Flash Revealed
World War Z Sequel Starting with 'Clean Slate'
Game of Thrones Spoilers: Season 6 Parade of Lies
Hunger Games 2 Pics Show Some Action


text:
- RT @Jeff_Raines: 12yrs after Blankenship spent +$3M to buy a seat on #wvpol's Supreme Court will big donors do it again? https://t.co/QS3d4… 1 day ago
- This seems to be a highly transferable statement. "Research on politics is fun but also tricky. But we did our best" twitter.com/18F/status/726… 1 day ago
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- RT @RappaportAdam: Always great @ElizaRules on dark money, citing damning CHGO documents from @CREWcrew complaints. More here: https://t.co… 1 day ago
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Tag Archives: 1994
Sometimes Predictions Are Wrong: Republican Revolution Edition
I'm currently reading Larry Bartels' 1991 American Political Science Review article, "Constituency Opinion and Congressional Policy Making: The Reagan Defense Buildup" (gated, summary). I was struck by the following line in his literature review: If Brady is right — if … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized Tagged 1994, Larry Bartels, Political Science, Predictions, Republican Revolution Leave a comment


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Skip to comments.The Rich Vote Republican, So Why is Warren Buffet Supporting Obama?
Posted on 10/15/2008 8:18:42 AM PDT by QenBirQeni
According to a new survey by Prince & Associates, voters worth $1 million to $10 million are favoring Sen. John McCain, while voters worth $30 million or more are favoring Sen. Barack Obama. The survey of 493 families showed:More than three quarters of those worth $1 million to $10 million plan to vote for Sen. McCain. Only 15% plan to vote for Sen. Obama (the rest are undecided). Of those worth more than $30 million, two-thirds support Sen. Obama, while one third support Sen. McCain....
(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.wsj.com ...
Our verbal sparring was all over the place, from foreign policy to economic plans. It took me a while to convince him not to base his vote on the rhetoric he hears from either campaign, the major TV and print media, but rather to see things objectively and argue logically and not emotionally. He agreed. Thus I proceeded to break down Obama's flawed economic and social policies and related them to socialist ones. I also agreed that McCain had made a mistake by voting for the bailout plan, but we conceded that for both candidates their vote was driven by necessary politics. Nor do I think that McCain's economic plan is great, but at least he won't be increasing taxes on my wife and I.
I was doing fine until he asked me a question that stumped me: "If McCain's tax policies favor the middle class, businesses, investors, and the rich, why is it that Warren Buffet has endorsed Barack Obama?" I had to be honest and I told him that I had no idea why, but there must be a simple explanation, which as it turn out it was rather simple, void of any complex economic theory and logic. So I looked it up.
All I had to do was perform a simple Google search with the search terms: "rich vote obama". Apparently the rich are divided into two categories: those who are rich with a net worth of $1 million to $10 million, and the ultra- or super-rich, with net worths greater than $30 million. During the 2004 presidential race Elite Traveler Magazine contracted a survey firm to poll a sample of the rich and the ultra-rich to determine how the rich vote. According to that survey, those who were considered rich ($1 million - $10 million) largely said they would vote with their wallets, and agreed that Bush would be better for their finances. However, 90.7% of those who were considered super-rich (> $10 million) agreed that Bush would be better for the economy and their finances, but nevertheless they chose to vote for Kerry. The surveyor's conclusion was:
"The findings clearly demonstrate that the Elite Affluent are so wealthy, other issues are more important to them in selecting their country's leader then their personal financial situations," Prince said. "At the same time, the majority of the Upper Affluent, who are rich but still have financial constraints, are principally voting with their pocketbooks."
Fast forward to 2008 and the current presidential election. Will the rich and the super-rich voting patterns change or remain the same as 2004? A Wall Street Journal post explores the same issue citing the same surveying firm as in the 2004 example to determine if there is a difference in voting pattern in the rich and super-rich voters. Out of a sample of 493 families, the survey found yet again that 66% of those with a net worth of greater than $30 million would vote for Obama, while only 15% of those with net worth of $1 million to $10 million would support Obama. According to the opinion piece, the major reason given for the voting trends was taxes. Those who were only considered rich (< $10 million) cited taxes as the primary reason why they would support John McCain, with social issues and the environment being secondary and tertiary reasons. Among the super-rich, tax policy came last in their consideration for supporting either candidate and placed social and environmental issues at the top of their decision to support Obama.
The super-rich are very indifferent to taxes simply because of the size of their net worth where taxes do not make a big enough of a dent. Also, they are more likely to employ tax attorneys, structure their assets in tax-deferred, trusts, or other tax burden reduction mechanisms. Because either candidates tax policy does not affect the super-rich financially, they are free to chose a candidate based on other policies, such as social reform and the environment. In other words, Warren Buffet could care less about how the government taxes him.
What does this tell us? Well, it goes to show that although an individual is wealthy, he or she does not necessarily make better decisions than the rest of us. They are just as conflicted as the rest of us. Unfortunately, we look up to them because we want to be as successful as them, and since they represent a small percentage of the population but hold the largest amount of wealth, their political support of a candidate counts. With the tax burden inconsequential to him, Warren Buffet supports Obama because of the perception that Obama's economic policies are more favorable to the poor and lower middle class. My guess is this is another form of charity on the part of the super-rich.
I like what the author of the Op-Ed piece in the WSJ had to say:
But the survey offers an important insight into the effect of wealth on personal politics. Perhaps the old saying should be changed to: If youre ultrawealthy and conservative you have no heart; if youre wealthy and liberal, you have no brain.
In other words, social and environmental issues are a hobby of the super-rich, and the public be damned.
Personally, I also think that the super-rich in the United States have found ways to link with our politicians for mutual profit from the taxpayers. They give large donations and parties and their businesses profit from earmarks given by our Congressmen. Look who the people who ran Freddie, Fannie, and AIG donated to and also look how those companies benefited from Congressional protection. We as citizens are being sold out.
Because he probably stands to make millions, in not billions, from an Obama presidency.
The "Upper Richistanis," as this article names them, live off the interest of their investments. They do not have an "earned" income, therefore they aren't taxed.
And so, they don't care if taxes are raised on the upper middle class to "Lower Richistanis" who do pay taxes.
Therefore, the Upper Richistanis can vote Obama without a conscience.
It is not the people who are rich who should be afraid of Obama, it is the people who want to become rich. Obama's tax destroyes the American dream, but it does not take anything away from the people who already have it.
He doesn't think his children or grandchildren should get anything but a education.
Follow the money? How can the rich get richer? Buying low selling high. If they want Obama, there must be something there that applies to their future investments.
Because the corporate partners of Fascist Dictators always prosper.
Rush argued the other day, distinguishing between wealth and income.
Those with large wealth but relatively small incomes worry less about tax rates.
Those with large incomes relative to wealth worry more about tax rates.
At the same time, I believe, as the writer indicates, that for many of the high income or high wealth class, engaging in liberal politics is fashionable and a lifestyle choice.
Not sure that how this explains Buffett, who is by initial impressions a conservative by nature.
Rich capitalists vote Republican.
Rich fascists vote Democratic.
Buffett made huge money with an insurance tax loophole that provides that life insurance proceeds are not taxable and (if paid directly to someone, instead of an estate) AVOID DEATH TAXES.
Standard procedure would be (oversimplified): old Sonic Drive in owner about to die, buys $1,000,000 life insurance policy for $1,050,000, beneficiaries are heirs.
The estate avoid death tax this way.
The repeal of the Death Tax has greatly hurt his bottom line.
See my last post.
Do you honestly not know what the capital gains tax is?
The reasons why Buffett supports Obama is not because of the bizarre notion that investment holdings are untaxed - which they most definitely are - but:
(1) Buffett is a strong advocate and funder of abortion and "population control" - it is his personal obssession. Barack Obama is the most pro-abortion candidate for President ever. That alone wins him Buffett's vote.
(2) Buffett is so rich that he can afford to place all of his investments into tax-sheltered trusts, trusts which own the vehicles and properties he uses and which pay for all his meals and incidentals as business expenses. He spends millions to avoid billions in taxes. Very few people are wealthy enough to be in a position where spending 50 or so million on establishing and staffing a family of trusts is cheaper than paying taxes.
It is this, and not an imaginary America where there is no capital gains tax, that exempts Buffett from paying taxes at regular rates.
I agree that he can afford better/more lawyers, can lease (or purchase) Congresscritters to do his bidding, and can use the power of his wealth to make the world go away. His apparent conservatism (driving an old car, living modestly, etc.) is either a dodge or denial.
I'm not saying he or any of the others shouldn't be rich, but they should support everybody's right to be rich, and not attempt to slam the door on others.
sorry, you're right...I wasn't specific. They don't have "earned" income like those of us who have to "work" for a living.
I think a good case can be made that Warren Buffet has made a lot of decisions better than the rest of us.
Many wealthy people are economic illiterates, at least in areas outside those directly involved with the source of their wealth. In this they are no different that the population in general.
They look around them, at the luxuries they enjoy, the travel, the huge homes on large amounts of land, the high rate of consumption they can buy, and they think "what if everyone were as rich as I?" This worries them; they conclude that if everyone, or even a sizable minority, of the population, were to consume at the rate they do, there would result an unsustainable burden on the natural resources of the world.
This leads them to conclude that the best way to ensure their lifestyle into the future is to make sure that the number of future wealthy people is limited, and the only way to accomplish this is to see to it that the capitalist system is curtailed. Except, of course, those elements of it that keep them living in style.
Buffet owns part of Dairy Queen........Why???? Because, due to the Death Tax, the family that owned Dairy Queen had to sell it. THAT is why Buffet is a Democrat, he is a vulture that swoops down on businesses that the Government screws people out of.
Actually, I think they are cowards and say liberal things to keep the MSM off their asses. It's easy to pretend to be liberal, especially if you've got the bucks, the gated communities, security guards, and private schools.
Let them get out there and mix it up with the real world and see how "liberal" they truly are.
There's a difference between the rich and the wealthy.
The rich are still earning their big bucks. Therefore, they are subject to tax policies, business cycles, health care mandates and so on.
The wealthy are living off their assets and, therefore, are relatively insulated from changes in financial and political policies. Since they no longer are working to support their lifestyles, they feel the need to "give back" by participating in Robin Hood schemes of those who are fortunate, but less fortunate than they are.
Dementia. Alzheimers.
You got it.
It's called mercantilism. You hit it right on the head.
The bigger the government the more appealing it is to the ultra-wealthy. They can seriously influence what happens.
Besides, if you know the ruling pary is going to be pussified, "high-road" Republicans or ruthless, cut-throat Democrats -- it's better to snuggle up with the one who could damage you.
The problem with these stooges is they think they and their families will be exempt and given exalted status in the end if the commies get their way and get their revolution, so they really don't care about any of that.
They are what is known as the "I'm special" wing of the useful idiots who will be the first to be shot in the revolution, along with the leftist political whores and toadies in Washington DC and the complete morons in Hollywierd.
My wife and I both work, currently double income no kids (DINKs) but with one beagle. So perhaps we're DIWBs? Anyways, we were tickled to find out that we're knocking on the door of being "rich", especially since we both come from middle middle-class families. We've worked hard to get here. While many of our peers from high school messed around and made some bad choices, we studied hard, went to good public schools for undergrad, and went on and earned professional degrees.
Now the Metro Messiah wants to take the fruits of our labor and reward those who didn't work hard and play by the rules.
Of course, at our point in life (early 30s for me, late 20s for the wife), our new membership in "the rich" stems primarily from our income. While one Warren Buffett doesn't have to worry so much about federal income taxes on salaries, some of us do. And, of course, some of us can't necessarily invest in a company and then call up their favorite liberal Dem congressmen to bail out said company (oh, but the world was going to end!!!1). I know, I know, Buffett is simply the greatest investor ever. Well, he once was. Now he's just an insider who benefits from sweetheart deals and access to politicians.
I'm still trying to figure out why exactly it makes for good public policy to seek to make people dependent on the government and to punish (yes, Barack, that's what you will be doing) the independent self-reliant folks. Ignoring the economic impact of raising taxes on business owners (aka job creators) for the moment, what does it say about our society when dependency is promoted and independence is denigrated?
The American Dream today is perverted. It has become now a mission of the government to guarantee success to everyone. In addition, the notion of hard work and risk-taking has been removed from general acceptance as the way you achieve the American Dream. That Dream today is simply guaranteed outcomes which will flow to you no matter what. Today, if you have to work hard and take risks, well, then the middle class is "struggling."
As for the results for the survey that got me on this tangent, I'm not surprised. If I had to guess, those in the $1 to $10 mil range are entrepreneurs, risk takers who came from humble circumstances and who are more exposed to changes in income tax rates and whose businesses have customers who are also exposed.
Because he's already got his and McCain might screw up all those tax loopholes he hides it behind.
I agree that Buffet has a great sense for business, but consider for a moment that an individual's success is a function of timing and luck (probabilities) among many other things such as hard work, etc, etc. I am not calling him a smarter man than us, but he is an expert in insurance and taxes, therefore he has an edge.
Simply put it is an information imbalance he enjoys that gives him the edge. Guts too, because he had to be willing to fail. But if he can reason out that Obama would be better for America, than what can we say about his judgment. Clearly, it is his opinion, but maybe in the political area he might be a tad weak, don't you think? Unless, he has an insight into the future we don't which goes back to the information balance I mentioned earlier. I don't want to deny that he is a smart man, but he is a man, and his decision making is on par with ours.
Simply put it is an information imbalance he enjoys that gives him the edge.
From what I have heard about Buffet, he actually operates with less information than many others. For instance he doesn't even use a computer.
Buffet makes MONEY by selling TAXATION INSURANCE.
if you eliminate the death tax, Buffet can't sell death tax insurance.
Buffet's business of insurance COUNTS ON TAXATION.
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing. The fifth would pay $1. The sixth would pay $3 The seventh would pay $7. The eighth would pay $12. The ninth would pay $18. The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that's what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. 'Since you are all such good customers,' he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20. 'Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers?
How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?' They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so the fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings). The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33% savings). The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28% savings). The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings). The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 ( 22% savings). The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings. 'I only got a dollar out of the $20,' declared the sixth man.
He pointed to the tenth man,' but he got $10! "Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man. 'I only saved a dollar, too.. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I! "That's true!!' shouted the seventh man. 'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!
"Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison. 'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor! 'The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up. The next night the tenth man (the richest) didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
Oh wow, that was so much better than anything I have ever argued in regards to taxation. Thank you for that.
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The Determinants of Entry are not Independent of Start-up Size: Some Evidence from Spanish Manufacturing
In this paper we explore the determinants of firm start-up size of Spanish manufacturing industries. The industries' barriers to entry affect the ability of potential entrants to enter the markets and the size range at which they decide to enter. In order to examine the relationships between barriers to entry and size we applied the quantile regression techniques. Our results indicate that the variables that characterize the structure of the market, the variables that are related to the behaviour of the incumbent firms and the rate of growth of the industries generate different barriers depending on the initial size of the entrants. Copyright Springer 2005
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Volume (Year): 27 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (09)
Pages: 147-165
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli, 2001.
"Industry Dynamics and the Distribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Approach,"
LEM Papers Series
2001/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli, 2004. "Industry Dynamics and the Distribution of Firm Sizes: A Nonparametric Approach," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 443-466, January.
- F. Lotti & E. Santarelli, 2001. "Industry Dynamics and the Distiribution of Firm Sizes: A Non-Parametric Apporoach," Working Papers 406, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Jeffrey Campbell, 1998.
"Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 371-408, April.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell, 1997. "Computational Appendix to Entry, Exit, Embodied Technology, and Business Cycles," Technical Appendices campbell98, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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I have come to understand that it is because of the music accompanying them that films
are forbidden in our Sheriat. Is it true? If so why is it haram to see silent movies?
A. As explained above, it is not only because of Music. There are other factors involved. If
there is a "silent" film which is free from obscenity, dance and "crime-training" then it is not
By the way, I have been told that even in educational films, there is always music in the
Are we (i.e. Ithnasheris) allowed to see the film Pilgrimage to Mecca'?
A. The films in general have some features, anyone of which is enough to make it a
'Gunah-e-Kabira'. (See for detail. Question No. 59).
Then there is a principle of sheriat that a man should not go to a place which is generally
used for Haram deeds even if he goes there for a perfectly Halal purpose. Because, first,
the passer-by would not know his real intention and would think that he is going there for
committing that sin. Secondly, he will become used to go to such places which is
dangerous in itself. Thirdly, others by seeing him going there will be encouraged to follow
his example.
Now, even if a perfectly safe film is being shown in a cinema, it is not good to go there.
Apart from the above-mentioned three reasons, your children will think that there is nothing
wrong in going to cinema; and thus you will be responsible to create in them a sinful habit.
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Wednesday, April 23, 2014
2 Comments | Copyright: IANS
Producer Sajid Nadiadwala, who is in Warsaw shooting with Salman Khan for his directorial debut "Kick", is kicked by the opening reports of his new production "2 States".
He now plans a very big celebration bash for the twin successes this year of his "Highway" and "2 States".
Speaking from Warsaw Nadiadwala said, "By the grace of god this has so far been a fantastic year for my production house."
"When we produced 'Highway', Imtiaz Ali and I planned it as a small experimental quick film, while we waited for Ranbir Kapoor's dates later during this year. How were we to know 'Highway' would be such a success. It is one of my proudest achievements. And now I hear roaring reports of '2 States'! So it's a double triumph for Alia Bhatt from our production house."
Nadiadwala hopes the streak of luck continues this year for his production house.
"We've Tiger Shroff's launch film ('Heropanti') coming up next. We hope it does for Tiger what 'Hero' had done for his father Jackie Shroff."
Meanwhile, the preparation for the mega bash is on here.
Monica Dogra roots for LGBT cause with new US short film
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Keep an eye out for the final trailer dropping next Tuesday.
Am I allowed to hype it up even if I'm in it? Feels wrong.
Issue 11 is the result of two months in south-east Asia with Chris Jones, Will Harmon and Ali Drummond.
Mabasi team taking Switzerland apart
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Compton City Hall Corruption? Tune In Tonight
Ken Lund / Flickr
The Bell corruption trial was all about a City Council that allegedly paid itself to attend make-work committee meetings. Those meet-ups ultimately added up to six-figure salaries in a town whose residents are mostly working-class.
In Compton, a similar scandal could be shaping up. KCET teases this morning that it has discovered a similar payment situation for Compton City Council members:
KCET's SoCal Connected says it has discovered that the small-town body is earning most of its salary by attending committee meetings that take less than five minutes.
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Not only that, but the program found out that a $3.5 million loan to a major local campaign donor and civil rights activist has not been repaid. The city also gave him land for nothing, so far, in return, KCET says.
Was it a taxpayer giveaway?
All this as two council members and the city treasurer are up for reelection in two weeks. Tune in tonight at 5:30 p.m. and 10:30 p.m. for details.
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In the Nebraska State Penitentiary, John Lotter sits in a death row cell. Tom Nissen wonders if he will spend the rest of his life in prison. The woman they murdered, Teena Brandon, had fooled them and many others. As Brandon Teena, she lived as a man even having girlfriends who didn't know or chose to ignore the truth. Angered by the deceit, Lotter and Nissen raped Teena on Christmas eve. After she went to the county sheriff, two men went to the farmhouse where Teena was staying and murdered her along with two others.
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text:
Global Economy
The End Of Fed QE Didn't Start Market Madness, It Ended ItSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2015 09:16 -0400
- Alan Greenspan
- Bond
- Central Banks
- China
- Copper
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Equity Markets
- Federal Reserve
- Fitch
- Gallup
- Global Economy
- Hong Kong
- India
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- Michael Pento
- Monetary Policy
- Morgan Stanley
- Musical Chairs
- New Normal
- Peter Boockvar
- ratings
- recovery
- Standard Chartered
- Volatility
- World Bank
What we see now is the recovery of price discovery, and therefore the functioning economy, and it shouldn't be a big surprise that it doesn't come in a smooth transition. Six years is a long time. Moreover, it was never just QE that distorted the markets, there was – and is – the ultra-low interest rate policy developed nations' central banks adhere to like it was the gospel, and there's always been the narrative of economic recovery just around the corner that the politico/media system incessantly drowned the world in. That the QE madness ended with the decapitation of the price of oil seems only fitting.
"Volatile Volatility"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/16/2015 04:58 -0400
As a one-day upward move in a major currency its had few peers through history and is firmly in the top 10 of daily upward moves for any currency (vs the dollar) that we have data for which in many cases goes back into the nineteenth century. Most of the others in this top 10 are EM countries. So this is a rare event as when a peg gets abandoned and a big move ensues it's usually a devaluation from a fixed rate system.What makes this move shocking is that just last month the SNB committed themselves to preventing their currency appreciating beyond 1.20 to the Euro and vowed they would enforce the policy with "the utmost determination". The risk for the global financial system is that if the SNB can make such a dramatic u-turn could other central banks follow at some point. We're not so concerned here as their situation is arguably a lot different to the ECB. The ECB might actually look at the wider market moves yesterday and be scared to disappoint.
Why Our Central Planners Are Breeding FailureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2015 21:45 -0400
Success, we're constantly told, breeds success. And success breeds stability. The way to avoid failure is to copy successful people and strategies. The way to continue succeeding is to do more of what has been successful. This line of thinking is so intuitively compelling that we wonder what other basis for success can there be other than 'success'? As counter-intuitive as it may sound, success rather reliably leads to failure and destabilization. Instead, it's the close study of failure and the role of luck that leads to success. In the macro-economic arena, we think it highly likely that the monetary and fiscal policies of the past six years that are conventionally viewed as successful will lead to spectacular political and financial failures in 2015 and 2016. How can success breed failure? It turns out there are a number of dynamics at work.
The Fed & The Price Of OilSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/15/2015 13:11 -0400
Given the potential for financial losses triggered by oil's price collapse to cascade into the financial sector at large, the Fed may well be forced to intervene either directly or indirectly... Unleash the oil weapon...
2014's "Robust" Jobs Market Produced No Wages, And Now No SpendingSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2015 21:15 -0400
For all the hype about jobs and the booming (GDP) economy, the major portion of the retailer calendar around Christmas was a total bust. In many ways it was worse than last year, which emphasizes simply how the business "cycle" as it was understood in textbook economics no longer applies. In other words, the dichotomy between growing pessimism in credit/funding and economists is due to the continued failure of the economy to produce what economists expect.
Oil Collapses and Copper Crashes 8% in Day - Great Recession Cometh?Submitted by GoldCore on 01/14/2015 18:37 -0400
At the very least, the 'great recession' seems likely to continue. A serious recession or depression will likely collapse the already fragile banking system, especially in Europe, and the savings of ordinary people and companies will become exposed to bail-ins.
Is Hugh Hendry A Greater Fool?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2015 14:13 -0400
The current premise is that global equities markets will rise regardless of economic fundamentals. Money must flow into equities [perceived as the only asset class capable of producing "acceptable" returns] because the alternatives offer virtually no return…with interest rates pinned near zero in most western economies. Just buy any equity [akin to dart throwing] and a "greater fool than you" will buy after your purchase, at a higher price, ad infinitum... thus ever increasing the asset's value This is such an obviously flawed argument on so many levels... albeit, like almost any strategy, is surprisingly effective from time to time.
Frontrunning: January 14Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/14/2015 08:51 -0400
- Apple
- Arch Capital
- Bank of England
- Barclays
- Beige Book
- Blackrock
- Bond
- China
- Citigroup
- Conference Board
- Councils
- Credit Suisse
- Crude
- Devon Energy
- Duke Realty
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Evercore
- Fitch
- Global Economy
- Gundlach
- Hong Kong
- JetBlue
- Keefe
- Middle East
- Mortgage Loans
- Nationalism
- New York State
- Oaktree
- President Obama
- Private Equity
- ratings
- Realty Income
- Recession
- Reuters
- Verizon
- Viacom
- Volatility
- Wells Fargo
- White House
- Whiting Petroleum
- World Bank
- U.S. Index Futures Decline on Commodities Slump, Growth Concerns (BBG)
- Al Qaeda claims French attack, derides Paris rally (Reuters)
- Charlie Hebdo With Muhammad Cover on Sale With Heavy Security Precautions (BBG)
- How an Obscure Tax Loophole Brought Down Obama's Treasury Nominee (BBG)
- ECB's bond plan is legal 'in principle' (FT)
- Charlie Hebdo fallout: Specter of fascist past haunts European nationalism (Reuters)
- DRW to acquire smaller rival Chopper Trading (FT)
- Oil fall could lead to capex collapse: DoubleLine's Gundlach (Reuters)
At Last The 'Experts' Wake Up To OilSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2015 20:10 -0400
We see far too much complacency out there when it comes to interest rates, in the same manner that we've seen it concerning oil prices. We live in a new world, not a continuation of the old one. That old world died with Fed QE. Just check the price of oil. There have been tectonic shifts since over, let's say, the holidays, and we wouldn't wait for the 'experts' to catch up with live events. Being 7 weeks or two months late is a lot of time. And they will be late, again. It's inherent in what they do. And what they represent.
A World Without (Big) Banks, Part IISubmitted by Sprott Money on 01/13/2015 12:11 -0400
In the first half of this piece, readers were subjected to an exposition on the status quo. We revisited the preposterous paradigm of "too big to fail", where a Crime Syndicate of private sector mega-banks pronounced themselves so "systemically important" that (supposedly) we could not live without them.
Market Wrap: Futures Rebound, Ignore Continuing Crude Crash, 10Y Under 1.9%, 30Y Near Record LowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/13/2015 07:46 -0400
So far today has been a replica of yesterday, with the crude rout continuing and pushing WTI under $45, but largely ignored by the FX carry pairs, and thus equity futures, which have seen some positive momentum from overnight trade data out of China where exports jumped 9.7% beating the 6% expectation, while imports fell 2.4% compared to a projected 6.2% decline as the trade surplus narrowed from November's record $54.4 billion. For the full year, however, Chinese trade grew at just 3.4%, missing the government's target of 7.5% growth for the third year in a row as the government quick to blame the slowing global economy. In any event, the USDJPY is well off the overnight lows which means the EuroStoxx is up some 0.8% which, just like yesterday, the E-mini is up some 9 points and rising. It remains to be seen if, just like yesterday, US equities will crash at a precipitous pace after the open, once algos realize that nothing at all has changed.
2015: The Year Of The Slump?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/12/2015 16:26 -0400
There is compelling evidence that 2015 will see a global slump in economic activity. This being the case, financial and systemic risks will increase as evidence of the slump accumulates. It can be expected to undermine global equities, property and finally bond markets, which are currently all priced for economic stability. Even though these markets are increasingly controlled by central bank intervention, it is dangerous to assume this will continue to be the case as financial and systemic risks accumulate. Precious metals are ultimately free from price management by the state. Furthermore, they are the only asset class notably under-priced today, given the enormous increase in the quantity of fiat money since the Lehman crisis. In short, 2015 is shaping up to be very bad for fiat currencies and very good for gold and silver.
"The Biggest Bubble Today Is Central Bank Credibility" Gerard Minack Warns "All Hell Could Break Loose"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/12/2015 15:28 -0400
"The biggest bubble out there is central bank credibility. If Draghi was a stock he'd be on a P/E of 200! Yellen's on 100. When that bubble pops, all hell will break loose again, and there you really just want to be in cash."
Copper Just Marked the End of the "Recovery"Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 01/12/2015 15:09 -0400
Take note, Copper just broke down out of the massive wedge pattern formed after the 2008 Crash:
Q4 2014 Large Bank Earnings Preview: Growth Amidst DeflationSubmitted by rcwhalen on 01/12/2015 10:17 -0400
Q: What is the fastest growing asset class at US banks? Leveraged loans? US Treasury debt? A: Reserves deposited at the Fed.


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