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Going Full Satter: Taking Back Control of Dinnertime
Dear Amy,
You've mentioned going from a less than Ellyn Satter dining plan to following her book pretty closely with dinners at home. I've read the "How to Get Your Kid to Eat: But Not Too Much". My house is still a dang mess when it comes to eating! I was wondering if you would mind doing a post about how the transition went. How much belly-aching, complaining, not eating was there?
Specifically, I have a 5 year-old, a 3 year-old, and an infant. Oh, and a husband who is rarely home for dinner, won't eat early enough to eat with the kids, and well, you get the picture. The 5 year-old is soooooo picky. Seriously. He has some mild sensory issues, that I think contribute. Namely, a very sensitive smell sense. He's not texture averse, just smell sensitive. The 3 year-old is more adventurous, but not exactly adventurous. She is improving though. The issues we have stem from my path of least resistance approach in life, and well, the aforementioned infant spent nearly 5 months in the NICU and the babysitters are not cooks. So, there were several months of cycling the stock dinner options that were easy. Lots of chicken, meatballs, fish sticks, and a little spaghetti.
So, now that I want to try to clean things up a bit, I'm facing a possible revolt. I'm implementing 2 dinners a week at the big dining room table, with full focus and attention, myself and 3 kids. I'm trying to find dinners that are a slide from what they are used to, or somewhat adaptable (Sloppy Joes, I don't care if you only eat the bun!). Any suggestions? Should I really go completely cold turkey? That's really hard with Dad's unpredictable schedule and habit of traveling and being accustomed to deciding what he wants no more than 5 hours before eating…..and eating later than the kids anyway. Sigh. I can only fix the kids here, not the DH!
Short order non-cook who really wants to be more!
I have to admit: The Satter method works best when you can get the whole family on board, and can commit to "real" family dinners as many nights a week as possible. Even more so in the "beginning," when presenting a united, consistent front for the kids shows them that this is the new reality: You will eat what Mom and Dad eat. The end.
That said, that's simply not doable for a lot of families. Obviously, it would be GREAT if you could get your husband to commit to like, one solid week of eating dinner with the kids to help you out, but I don't think it's a lost cause if it's just going to be you most of the time. I would suggest you re-think the "two serious meals a week" strategy, at least in the beginning when you're hoping for some kind of breakthrough. While I fully support the expectation of table manners (and there is something nice about sitting at a table together) is it possible that the "full focus and attention at the big formal table" approach is stressing everybody out a bit (yourself included)? I know there is nothing — NOTHING — that wears my patience down than dinner time whiiiiiiining over foooood and I don't liiiiiiike this and I'm going to hang upside down from my chaaaaaaiiiirr. The change of scenery/expectations might also be signaling to the kids that "THIS IS GOING TO BE FOOD I DON'T LIKE" before they even see what you've made.
(Or not! I don't know. We usually eat dinner in our dining room but the kids eat at the kitchen counter for breakfast and lunch, and I did plenty of kids-only meals when we were first Satterizing Noah and Jason had to work late. Of course, Noah wouldn't even eat kid-friendly stuff like fish sticks or meatballs at the time, so I considered getting him to eat that stuff a victory!)
So here's what I'd suggest: Go cold turkey, but loosen up a little bit at the same time. Give them new things in the old scenery. Put the plates down and leave the room if you have to; if that helps you avoid the cajoling and begging and "just one bite" bargaining that is decidedly very un-Satter. OR: Could you possibly commit eating with the kids every night, dining room or otherwise, but simply try to make meals that your husband can simply reheat when he gets home? Maybe stuff in a Crock Pot that can basically be served whenever? That way you get to model the good manners/eating habits for the kids without THEN simply becoming a short-order cook for your husband a few hours later.
(Think chilis or stews with lots of veggies that you can serve over kid-friendly spaghetti, egg noodles or rice. Mild Indian-style curries are also a great way to make an adult-friendly meat/vegetable dish in a single pot or Crock Pot…let it simmer all day if you want, then serve it to the kids over rice and give them some bread. [Trader Joe's has great frozen Indian breads that are super-convenient.] The bread and rice usually keep them from flipping out over the unfamiliar stuff in the curry. That's basically how I got Noah to tolerate rice with "sauce" on it. Eventually, he would eat the actual contents of the curry — chickpeas, lentils, chicken, spinach, etc. Baby steps, though.)
Yes, there WILL be a revolt. An uprising. Whining out the wazoo. I think we had some full-on sobbing. Which is why you do kind of have to be SUPER CONSISTENT, EVERY NIGHT about it for a week or two. They…they need to get hungry. That sounds so mean but it's true. This is like CIO for eating. They will try to wait you out, figuring that eventually you'll get sick of making meals that go untouched (which: yes, grrrrr) and cave and they'll get some macaroni and cheese.
I think Noah skipped dinner for about three days straight. He ate plenty at breakfast and lunch and I continued to offer him healthy snacks, but I did make sure he wasn't snacking too close to dinner and getting lots of exercise and activity during the day. He wasn't starving or getting malnourished by any means, but he WAS hungry at dinner. And eventually (day four), he lost the battle of wills, gave up and scarfed down a plate of fish sticks and peas. Hardly a culinary masterpiece or anything, but it was the first time in YEARS I'd gotten him to eat any kind of protein that wasn't peanut butter. And the peas! GREEN THINGS. ZOMG.
Once Noah accepted fish sticks, I immediately switched up the brand so he wouldn't get stuck on a particular color/shape/flavor. Then I learned how to make my own — frozen salmon or cod fillets, tossed in a food processor with whatever vegetable purees I had for the baby (squash, spinach, yams, etc.), whole wheat bread crumbs and some seasonings (onion powder, garlic powder, thyme, etc.). Roll in balls or sticks and bread them. I blend the breading up with some almonds, for extra crunch/texture and protein. (Thanks to one of those Sneaky Chef books for that one.) Freeze, bake, just like any other boxed nugget. These became my guiltless go-to when I DID need to cave and make a kid-only meal. (And yes, my kids still get macaroni and cheese sometimes. Sometimes from a box, sometimes homemade. I add pureed beans or cauliflower to the white sauce kind and butternut squash to the yellow. And a must-eat side of non-pureed green vegetable or grilled chicken. Meh.)
Instead of boxed (and processed and expensive) frozen things like pizza or waffles, we also started making our own versions of those, too. This helps with the kids getting visually "stuck" on how a certain food is supposed to look, AND has the added bonus of getting them to be much more flexible when eating out, or at other people's homes: We no longer have tantrums when a restaurant's mac-and-cheese turns out to be penne or rotini pasta, for example. Plus, it's really so much cheaper to keep organic INGREDIENTS in the house, rather than splurging on the organic convenience versions that basically amount to one meal.
Pizza can be a crazy easy meal to make — buy store-made dough (if you can find some without a ton of crap in it) and keep it in the freezer, or make a big batch of your own and freeze that. (Just Google for "easy pizza dough recipe." You can't really go wrong. Whole wheat crusts are pretty yummy too.) Sauce is canned whole tomatoes in a blender with some olive oil and garlic. Maybe some dried basil, if you're fancy. Our pizza stone broke so we just use a stupid cookie sheet with semolina flour and bake at 500 degrees. Make two pizzas — one basic that you know they'll like, and one for you and your husband with perhaps more "challenging" toppings. (White pizza with spinach! Artichokes and pesto!) Give the kids a slice of both. There. You've done your division of responsibility for the night AND made something that will please everyone — easily reheated for hubby, and it's healthier and cheaper than most of the frozen or delivery options.
Anyway, point is, you're on the right track. You don't have to immediately start giving them nothing but brussels sprouts and steak, or anything. Adapting or slightly tweaking their "acceptable" foods can make the process a little less painful. Trust me, we do a LOT of pizza, taco nights, and Things That Can Be Put On Noodles Or Rice around here. But I've also realized that hey, if we're eating chicken with ratatouille on top of it, there is no reason why I can't put chicken with ratatouille in front of my children. Noah might only eat the chicken. Ezra might only eat the zucchini. Ike might eat absolutely none of it. No big deal; they'll all survive until morning.
Because on the other hand, Noah might agree to try the ratatouille. He might decide that while the zucchini and eggplant aren't his thing, the tiny chopped bits grilled red peppers are yummy. And just like that…ta-da! Grilled red peppers are suddenly on the list of acceptable foods. (This actually happened, by the way. I've been grilling a LOT of red peppers ever since, because YAAAAY I WON OR SOMETHING.)
17 Responses to "Going Full Satter: Taking Back Control of Dinnertime"
A May 28 at 9:20 am Reply
I am not sure what Satterizing is, but my three (and I sympathize with OP, I have a 4 yo, 2 yo, and 3 week old) kiddos eat what we eat. Its mostly just a survival tool for us, because I get the kids at daycare and get home with about 30 minutes to get food on the table before a massive OMG I AM STARVING TO DEATH meltdown from the two older ones. We sit and eat together, though my husband typically doesn't get home until dinner is almost over.
Meals are my personal line in the sand. I cook, so I decide the menu (that goes for husband too – if he doesn't like the menu, he is welcome to fix his own separate meal). Our rules are that we eat at the table, and we don't scream or throw fits at the table. If the kids can't do that, then they are removed from the table until they are ready to try again. The kids don't have to eat their dinner (though I am totally guilty of nagging and cajoling)with two caveats. They have to try one bite of everything, and the next opportunity to eat will be breakfast. Which at our house is served no earlier than 6 a.m. It only took a couple of hungry nights and early mornings begging for an early breakfast before the kids figured out they should probably eat their dinner.
It does sound mean, and maybe it is, but I second Amalah, the kids won't let themselves starve, and the end result for us is that the kids eat what we eat, including a wide variety of vegetables, stews, soups, salads, etc., sit and eat nicely at restaurants, and are pleasant to have meals with 80% of the time. Plus, being a short order cook stinks!
Christine May 28 at 9:47 am Reply
I swear, I either have the most stubborn kid EVER or I am failing horribly at the Satter method, though I can't figure out HOW.
My 3.5 year old is picky to the extreme, and won't even eat the "kid-friendly spaghetti, egg noodles or rice." (He likes tacos though – go figure!) We tried the Satter method for 2 months. TWO MONTHS. Served him, didn't cajole, plead or beg. Left it up to him, etc, etc. You know what he did? Ate what little bread there was on his plate (and we limited it like crazy!) or ate absolutely nothing. He'd sit at the table with us for a bit while we'd eat, and then he'd ask to be excused to go play. We didn't give in and we didn't give him snacks afterward. He just went to bed hungry. FOR TWO MONTHS.
And then we went back to cajoling with three bites of this whatever I know you don't HATE (usually a modified version of our dinner that was palatable to him) and then you can have fruit or ice cream or something as dessert before bed. Which works occasionally but still frequently results in him going to bed hungry because he refuses the three required bites.
So… that was unhelpful to the OP (although I wish her good luck!) but maybe will help me a bit if anyone has some suggestions. I'm going to be hitting refresh on the comments all day in the hopes somebody says something that gives me an AHA! moment.
IrishCream May 28 at 1:25 pm Reply
Christine, is it possible that your son just isn't that hungry in the evenings? We've been following the Satter method (thanks Amy!) since my kids were babies, and my almost-three-year-old is a pretty good eater. There are some things she won't eat, but she'll generally at least try a dish without prodding. However, she does not eat much dinner most nights. She eats a ton for breakfast, a moderate amount at lunch, and has a substantial snack around 3:00 pm. Dinner is usually at 6:30, and even when it's something she definitely enjoys, she's finished after three or four bites. It drives me crazy because I feel like she needs more than that, but she's not complaining or asking for food later, and she's certainly growing, so…guess she's fine, even on those nights when her intake could be measured in molecules. She just likes to front-load her eating!
Anne May 28 at 1:44 pm Reply
I just did a Whole30 paleo challenge and I found that in the absence of foods that are easy to mindlessly eat (bread and pasta), I definitely front-load my food. I was eating a solid breakfast and lunch, and I would eat just a couple of vegetables and a small piece of meat for dinner. I don't think dinner has to be a large meal if you have eaten good foods earlier in the day.
Kat May 31 at 7:07 pm Reply
Hi! Our kiddo is the same – big breakfast, good sized lunch, 2 snacks during the day and a small(ish) dinner. I have also noticed that he eats less when he is tired and has less patience with trying new foods. I don't have a lot to add, other than I agree that you can't force kids to eat anything, but offering them healthy foods through out the day sure helps with the "omg you haven't eaten ANYTHING for dinner!" panic that I sometimes battle.
Olivia May 28 at 4:56 pm Reply
I totally sympathize. We did an overhaul of dinners when my daughter was about 3.5 yrs. We eat (nearly) all dinners at the table and only serve one meal. It was at least 4 months before we saw any progress, and I still can't get her to take a bite just to try it and be polite. Even if we are having dessert, she'll just say she doesn't want any.
I've seen a little bit of improvement with at least trying foods, and sometimes liking them in the last couple of months (she's 4 now) when we came up with and incentive, but nothing remarkable. She gets a letter to spell her name on the fridge every time she eats her dinner (about 3 tblsp of food) and when her name is spelled she get a trip to the $1 section of Target. She's completed this a couple of times, but there are a lot of nights she just doesn't eat anything and I try my best not to care.
Kate May 28 at 10:32 am Reply
I recently implemented a similar change at my house. I used to feed my kids (4 and almost 2) "kid food" when I got home from work, because I felt there wasn't enough time to cook before they needed to eat, plus my husband often isn't home early enough. Then my husband and I would cook and eat later. It was becoming untenable on two fronts: We were cooking at eating at 10 p.m. some nights, plus my kids were used to the idea that chicken nuggets in front of the tv was "dinner." I finally said enough. It is a lot more work for me to prep a meal so that I can basically have it on the table 20 min from when we walk in the door, but it's not impossible. We just start without my husband and he joins us when he gets home. Anyway… that's my story but I wanted to mention that I DID change up the scenery (namely, insisting that dinner wasn't on the COUCH omg, but with us all sitting around the kitchen table). I actually think this helped my 4 yo with the transition — new scenery so new food seemed to make sense to him. Rather than keeping everything the same but insisting he eat vegetables – I actually think that might have been harder for him. But, keep in mind that you're actually doing two things (1) family mealtime and (2) family meal. That is a lot to change at once, so, don't get discouraged if it doesn't all click in a week.
Myriam May 28 at 10:52 am Reply
I agree with Amalah's advice on dealing with the kids. My daughter is 2 1/2, and doesn't eat a lot of protein (she doesn't like the texture of red meat, pork or chicken, even in nugget form). However, she loves beans, fish, tofu and recently eggs (she just outgrew an egg white allergy). So, we now eat a lot more vegetarian meals at home, which is good for us and cheaper as well! We also introduced a lot of breakfast foods for dinner, because why not! I also stopped begging for her to taste anything, and I noticed that if we ignore her, she will usually start eating about 5 minutes after the meal has been served. It might be a temperature thing too warm), but if I pressure her, she tends to protest, but if I ignore her, she'll start eating on her own.
My 2nd advice (this is turning into a novel), is to deal with your husband too, exactly like A adviced above. Your cook the meal, he eats whatever is served, or is welcome to cook and clean a meal for himself. You can also suggest that he (and the older kids) helps with the meal planning, and a little prep on Sunday for dinner nights. You don't need to treat your husband like a spoiled older kid, he and you deserve better! Good luck!
Yes, thank you, that's what I was going to say. Leave your husband out of it – if you're doing the cooking and the cleaning up, then why does he get to decide what he's eating on a daily basis? You aren't a restaurant, OP.
I have an 8yo, a 5yo, and a 16mo, plus I run a home daycare. I plan the meals in advance, with input from the kids. We shop once a week, and cook ahead as many of the one-pot meals as possible on Sundays to make evenings less hectic. We all eat the same foods, and everyone must try one bite. If you don't want to eat, that's fine; you are asked to leave the table and no more food is served until breakfast.
My kids are fantastic eaters, all three of them – adventurous, not picky, fun to take to restaurants, and the 8yo even finds so-called "kid friendly" foods boring. It hasn't come without effort, though. There were some times where I wondered if they were living on air, or something. But we came through it, and mealtimes now are a pleasure most of the time.
Autumn May 28 at 5:00 pm Reply
OP: I hope your infant is now home and growing too quickly for you. Try "Satterizing" with the littlest one from the beginning. It could help reverse peer pressure the older two
We use Satter's basic premise with my 21 month old, and she's a pretty good eater. Somedays she loves something, the next day she turns her nose up at it (sliced red peppers are an every other day thing around here). We are working on just leaving what she doesn't want on her plate. I try to incorporate one preferred food into our meals so I know there is something she will start with, usually a fruit, and then she works her way into other foods.
As far as the DH problem, I feel your pain. I now ask him on Sunday how many nights I have to feed him during the week (so I know if he has a late meeting, etc) and what he thinks he might like. He gives me several suggestions (this week was fajitas, fish, and some grilled meat) and usually incorporate 2 of them into our meal plan, based on sales and what's in the fridge/freezer to get used up.
Heather May 28 at 6:22 pm Reply
I only have one kid, so it has been a little simpler for us. We have pretty much followed Satter's division of responsibility from the beginning. But my son, who is now 7, is an extremely picky eater and just last week has decided that maybe french fries are an acceptable food. So just because we have followed Satter's approach did not mean we have created an adventurous eater. But it does mean that we have never had crying or begging or tantrums at the dinner table (from adults or children) and a child who is pleasant to be around during meals and who is able to decide on his own what he wants to eat from the available food and how much he is hungry for, and to me that is a huge success. For what it's worth, he has had a lot of sensory issues though he seems to be outgrowing most of them, and he also has a lot of traits in common with Asperger's; those may contribute to his pickiness.
What works for us: 1) Consistency – always eating breakfast and dinner at the dinner table even on nights one parent isn't home and dinner is just boxed mac n cheese. Snacks are at the kitchen counter. 2) Weekly meal planning that both my husband and I participate in, with a little input from our son now that he's getting older. 3) Deconstructed serving – sauce separate from noodles, stir fried vegetables separate from rice, etc so my son can eat the parts of the meal he is ready to try. 4) 2 things on the table that my son is likely to eat, usually a starch like rice, noodles, tortillas or bread, and a fruit or vegetable side. 5) Alternating more kid-friendly meals with less kid-friendly meals so he doesn't perceive that we "always" serve stuff he doesn't like. 6) Really truly ignoring what he is eating. Left to his own, he is much more likely to try something; any kind of comments feel like pressure to him. This is probably the hardest to stick to but I think it's the most important. If he complains, I acknowledge once and then ignore any further complaints. 7) The Feeding Doctor at http://thefeedingdoctor.com/blog/, and she also has a facebook page. 8) We don't have dessert every meal, but when we have it, it is just dessert and doesn't require having eaten X number of bites of dinner.
Marissa May 28 at 7:11 pm Reply
"And a must-eat side of non-pureed green vegetable or grilled chicken"
Amy, correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought one of Satter's points is that you can't actually force a kid to eat anything.
Melanie May 29 at 4:48 pm Reply
I sort of did this with my husband when we moved in together. It was "this is what I am making an if you don't like it make something else." He eats a lot more veggies now than he did when we first met! My LO is 16 months and she pretty much eats whatever we are eating. There are a few exceptions like when my hubby and I eat late, or if I only have two pieces of fish left or something (although honestly she usually ends up eating mine in that case). I say hang in there you can do it! Just be consistent about whatever you decide.
Amalah, do you cook the fish before putting it in the processor or do it raw? I really want to try making my own fish sticks now!
ksmaybe May 30 at 11:55 pm Reply
OP here The dining room experiment actually worked a little, but I fell down on the job and have let it slip. The baby is home and growing phenomenally well….she's not my problem, and yes, I will attempt to indoctrinate her early, but I tried that with #2 and it didn't go as well as I had dreamed. I have been trying to persist with a couple of from scratch meals per week, some more kid friendly than others. Mixed results, as expected. Kid #2 has become a fan of a few veggies served crudite style, raw, no sauce thank you! So, win there! #1 persists in picky picky and stubborn style. The issue with DH is mostly travel (2-3 nights per week, every week) and that the travel has created a man used to eating out. So, I tend to give him weekends and he cooks after the kids are in bed. On nights when he is home, we either order or cook late, and the kids get one of their kid friendly meals. This is the part that drives me nuts. They woud eat meatballs for days on end. The snacking is and issue too, and I'm trying to curb the endless cracker obsession. I guess, I'm going with a baby steps approach for now, taking victories where I find them and trying to get as many of us at the table together as I can as often as I can manage. They do eat some weird non-kid foods, fish and seafood are generally hits (clams? my 3 yo loves clams!) and sometimes the strong flavors are the ones that my oldest loves (prefers salmon in his fish sticks to cod, sharp or swiss over mozzarella by a mile). I guess it all just feels like a crap shoot and I fear the months of rejected meals if I go cold turkey. Oh, and how to keep them at the table? That's where the dining room thing came from. A change of scenery to get them to focus on the food. They are up and down and all over the kitchen if we eat in there!
Myriam May 31 at 10:40 am Reply
Hi, me again! I just want to reassure you that baby-steps are ok… il will definitely take longer, but if you prefer "slowly peeling the band-aid rather than ripping it off" approach, do what works for you. I would make one suggestion however. I think your family would benefit more from you eating with the kids on husband-traveling nights, and then just seating down with your hasband with a beverage, than the other way around…
Adam Share Jun 06 at 5:28 pm Reply
Dinner times can be really tough. I have 3 daughters (1, 2 & 3) so I feel your pain. My 1 year old Ronni is like a dustbin, she gets the hump if her food is not with her the second she sits down, she eats it all and generally has seconds and thirds if she can get away it. My daughter Violet, 2 only seems to like sweetcorn, beans, peas, buscuits and chocolate. She will also eat chicken but as long that it is in a curry or a heavily spiced sauce. My eldest daughter Maiya, 3 was really picky with her food but is now to scared of me shouting at her or missing out on pudding to not eat her dinner. I think that you have to stay strong and stand your ground as kids smell fear and they will destroy you given the chance. I was always made to eat my dinner as a child, regardless if I liked it or not and I was not allowed to leave the table until I had finished. They might not like it but it is for their own good. If they had their way then they would not wash, brush teeth, go to bed or eat anything decent. I just think that rules are rules and when they get used to it is cool. One final point, even if I had the time to serve up different meals to them because of likes and dislikes I wouldn't. Not out of spite of course, just that I think you leave yourself open to a lot of hard work and chaos and they will not appreciate it anyway.
Do any of you folks have advice on eating sensibly while traveling? I am hoping to make a trip with the whole family (Ian, 11, Leila, 7 plus two adults) to France next summer. There will be, OMG, NO peanut butter or nuggets!!! We spent a month in Madrid five years ago, during which neither child ate anything I didn't cook, myself, for 4 weeks. Then we went to England in 2013, where more or less the same thing happened. There are no "kids menus" or "kid approved foods" outside really large grocery stores. Plus, I don't actually want to be chained to the kitchen on MY vacation to France. Any great ideas on how to get the kids to open up about unfamiliar food? I tried going to Spanish restaurants before we went to Spain, did no good at all. They hated it at the restaurant and hated it in Spain. Leila will only eat white, smooth,dry, plain unseasoned food. And water. She often eats nothing but a bowl of cereal in a day. And the fights . . . don't get me started.
Laura, Columbus, OH


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Meanwhile In China...
With the ongoing obsession over whether the Fed will or won't taper, most forget that this is largely pointless, if usefully distracting from real issues, conversation. Best case: Fed tapers by $20 billion in September, market tanks as bond yield surge crushing interest-rate sensitive stocks (dividend payers, REITs, builders) and killing what little is left of the non-institutional bid in housing (Exhibit A: mortgage applications). In the meantime, "the grand scheme of tapering things" looks like this.
So while the Taper, if and when it happens, will have only one actual result: to unleash the UNtaper, this is little comfort for one country that has to live with the $160 billion per month hot money flow impact of both the US QE and now that of Japan: China.
As explained previously, China continues to be stuck between an external hot money flows rock and a contracting economy and unstable banking sector hard place.
In a nutshell, the country's economy is rapidly slowing down as shown by a variety of external metrics such as the plunge in Caterpillar Asia sales, and the lowest electricity consumption since 2009. This is further compounded by the fact as of late, record endogenous credit injections, which currently stands at a level of 240% of GDP...
... have had little residual positive impact on China's GDP as shown here:
The above is the topic of a recent Albert Edwards paper looking at China's "Minsky moment" which can be found here. Of course China could overcome this macoreconomic slowdown by injecting even more credit, however, it is here that the Fed and the BOJ come in, because the Chinese economy is already flooded with exogenous, Bernanke and Kuroda-created hot money on the margin, and inflation is far higher than the government would like to admit. One needs to only look at house prices which increased for the 12th consecutive month despite ongoing failed efforts by the government to cool down the housing market using decree after decree.
So thanks to the G-0 central planners, the PBOC's hands are now tied: if it injects more hot money or lowers the interest rate the inflation on the margins, which it has so far been able to mask will spill over into the streets in a repeat of 2011, and force an even more epic scramble for inflation protection than the one seen two years ago, and which led to gold rising to just shy of $2000. Naturally, at a time when the central planners have gone all in on precipitating the Great Rotation out of bonds and into stocks at all costs, a re-exodus into gold might just end the Keynesian experiment. So the China central bank has that to contend with as well.
Which means one thing: in reality Chinese credit and liquidity is in far worse shape than reported. And sure enough, over the past 24 hours we got news courtesy of Bloomberg that the "China Liquidity Squeeze Risks Companies' Debt Rollover" leading to what may be the first harbinger of a Chinese bank failure which may subsequently lead to a whole lot of dominoes falling. To wit:
- A lack of liquidity in China's banking system may threaten some companies' ability to roll over debt, deteriorating banks' non-performing loans and increasing risks of hard-landing in economy, Bloomberg economist Michael McDonough writes in note to clients.
- PBOC may be forced to inject liquidity via open market operations to offset surging money-market rates.
- China Everbright Bank failed to repay 6b yuan ($977m) borrowed from Industrial Bank on time yesterday because of tight liquidity, leading to "chain effect" borrowing in market overnight: MNI cites three unidentified people in interbank market
- China's 1-day repo rate surges 240 bps today to 8.5506%, highest since Jan. 2012; 7-day repo up 151 bps to 6.8317%, highest since Feb. 2012; Nomura attributes liquidity squeeze to pre-holiday cash demand and policies to curb shadow banking and capital inflows
Problem is the PBOC can't simply "inject liquidity" as it will flare up what is already an unstable "inflation monster" (the cousin of Abe's deflationary nemesis).
But if China is indeed the latest to see its liquidity transmission mechanism fail, then surely its economy will follow immediately? Well, yes. Only problem is that all macroeconomic data out of China is made up.
Recall from "China's Data Manipulation In One Chart, And Why The Real Data Implies Weakest GDP Growth In Over 20 Years" which we posted a month ago after China reported the latest set of blistering trade data, when we said that "breaking down the true numbers behind China's economy, who using real export and import data ex-manipulation and fudging, that China's reported 7.7% GDP would translate into a 5.5% Q1 GDP growth, the lowest rate of growth in 20 years!" In other words, if one takes away China's ability to manipulate data, the recent trade surplus, will not only be unwound but likely result in accelerate GDP contraction.
Recall also from "The Bronze Swan Arrives: Is The End Of Copper Financing China's "Lehman Event" that China's SAFE has done just that when it passed new regulations on May 5 to end China's Copper Financing Deals, whose function was to not only serve as a source of collateral rehypothecation, but led to the surge in Hong Kong trade discrepancy, where copper (and its current account boosting trade with HK) was being arbed to profit from the domestic (CNY) to foreign (USD) interest rate differential.
All of the above would imply trade data for May would be atrocious. And, sure enough, as reported last night it was.
- China May Exports Rise 1.0%; Est. 7.4% Rise (range 3% fall to 17.1% gain, 38 economists).
- Imports dropped 0.3% vs est. 6.6% rise (range 2.8% fall to 16% gain, 38 economists)
Slowly but surely, the real Chinese economy is starting to peek through. What's worse is that since trade data is a key component of the GDP equation, suddenly China's entire growth picture will be repriced by the market, far lower.
Yet despite this ongoing slowdown, the PBOC continues to be limited in what it can do from a liquidity injection standpoint.
So China, thanks to the PBOC's own failed policies and thanks to the other central banks, suddenly has no way out. Naturally, this has lead to an immedate outpouring of warnings from "very serious people" overnight who have finally come to the same conclusion as we did months, if not years ago. Some snippets:
- Global investors will be "shocked" at China's decelerating trade growth and it's unlikely the government will loosen monetary policy to boost economic growth gievn the outlook for inflation, according to Gavin Parry, the managing director of Hong Kong-based brokerage Parry International Trading Ltd.
- China's trade data will hurt the stock market though losses won't be massive given that expectations of economic weakness have already been reflected in the nation's equities, according to Wu Kan, a Shanghai-based fund manager at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees $285 million.
- Investors should avoid buying Chinese stocks as the nation's trade data show economic growth is slowing and liquidity conditions are tightening, according to Hao Hong, chief China strategist at Bank of Communications Co. "The reverse of export growth was expected, but not the magnitude," Hong says in an e-mailed response to questions today. "The concurrent fall in import growth confirms earlier allegations on suspicious trades."
All precisely as we have warned.
The good news is that according to the US' own propaganda machine, the US economy and its consumer is strong enough to be the world growth dynamo and pick up the baton from a China whose dreams of 7% (and declining) GDP have been maybe permanently dashed. Of course if it isn't, and in the PBOC does indeed have no choice but to step in and prevent its economy from going into a tailspin and its banking system house of cards to tumble down, and does what all other central banks are doing by unleashing another epic stimulus round, then make sure all your hard commodities are nailed down. Because the explosion in demand for hard assets will be unlike anything seen yet.
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When the west's economy's hope is in the strength of an economy of a nation they are at ideaological war with, then you know the whole thing is a mess and the world's economy is in trouble. Deep trouble.
By ideological differences you mean Creditor vs Debtor? You mean extreme resource gathering? You mean excessive consumption, pollution and waste? You mean state controlled press vs state controlled press? You mean warrantless detentions?
OR is it that Americans reward and incentivise the weakest of its culture of ideology by allowing them to stay home, not work and have many, many babies vs. the ONLY ONE child left behind China strategy?
But I will agree with you. The world is in trouble. Deep trouble.
Stampare e' prestare. Print and lend, print and lend....
The few ideological differneces I see are all linked nicely together in one giant magnetic PONZI of public sacrifice.
Seriously, how can people here even think that there is any ideological difference between the oligarchs in either country?
The only question is which gang of theives and rapists are ruling over you.
+10. Impressive analysis.
More empty cities. Nothing to see here....
Move along
Bright spot! If bankers are the root of the problem they will be charged for the single 7.62 that will take their head off.
I read this article replacing the word China with America in my head and the description seemed to fit pretty well overall! : )
Meanwhile in China and elsewhere, they are buying up bullion. Given last night's spanking of PM prices.
"The good news is that according to the US' own propaganda machine, the US economy and its consumer is strong enough to be the world growth dynamo and pick up the baton from a China"
Wasn't the spinning propaganda machine touting that China would pull the US out of it's slump.
They need to get their lies straight. Fortunately for them Americans have a very, very short memory. As long as the government's BLS cooks the numbers and continue to increase the lies people are more than willing to increase debt and keep the Fed banksters living the good life.
In the mean time I see more new immigrants in Nursing homes and on welfare. Their network gets the word out fast on how to collect money from SS, medicaid and housing.
Good deal for immigrants (illegal and legal) in the US. Pay nothing in and get hundreds of thousands in benefits.
Not sure but seems so long as US and EU and Japanese and and and all are marginally importing less Chinese goods...exporting fewer dollars to China thus China not mopping up all this into Yuan....well there should be plenty of room in the short term for very inflationary efforts by the Chinese central plannners? This isn't '09 or '10...there is no global driver to goose Chinese exports...even with all the printing we are looking at global deflation?
Chinese will print but declare moratoriums on housing lennding or other decrees to channel the new credit...likely ultimately unsucessful but what else can they do?
Interesting from Two Planks...
I thought China was a BRIC nation, not a Banana Republic- 240bps overnight is NUTZ.
Those Chinese Commies will grab all the public's gold.
And the American Commies will try to do the same...
Your hard commodities should be nailed down because the Chinese are grabbing all of them through deals in south America and Africa......while the u.s dicks around in military stupidity the Chinese continue to stockpile what they need for the future......
indeed..they also have a monopoly on the available rare earth materials
The historical monopoly of the last few decade is based on price undercutting. Once the price normalizes or it becomes unattractive to buy REE's from China then refining of REEs will begin to grow elsewhere as mines have already been starting to come online since China's last tightening of REEs.
Yeah what happened? We used to be so much better at enveloping and consuming than the Chinese.
It is very kind of the US taxpayer to subsidize Chinese deals in 3rd world countries.
as china continues to accumulate gold, why does the bankocracy continue to undercut it?
There is this...soon China will have to stop building cities that no one can afford to live in... Oh the humanity !!!
Haha great that's exactly what I said I expected (a drop dust to the ongoing crackdown on fake stats) in a comment 2 days ago.
OK - ZH has been great regarding determing where the US gold is (or isn't), the lack of transparency in the gold system and lack of clear accounting. Would be great if ZH would turn it's eye toward Chinese (or Russian) gold...what do we know? What do we suspect? When the Chinese tell us they have 3k or 5k or 7k tons...NOW we believe the Chinese? Now we believe their leaders really care about their nation, their people more than themselves? Is there anyway to verify their claims??? Where is this gold??? We know it's gold and not tungsten because???
Not saying they don't but let's turn the same cynical eye on the Chinese we rightly turn on the Fed, the US gov. Lets lay our cards on the table and see what we know, what we suspect, and what's possible round the holdings of gold. I just don't believe the Chinese gov really cares about anything but the Chinese gov...somehow I have a funny feeling Chinese gold could be slipping through the hands of the Chinese people and back into Switzerland in the names of the same old 40 families??? Same as it ever was?
Oh please can we have a Chinese sneeze so the AU property market can take a 30% cut and I can actually afford to buy - i'ts rediculous at the moment...
All the macro lies are hiding the rot in the true economy & society
Depends on why you want to buy and what do you mean by affordable...
If property takes a massive 30% cut, by that time as a small investor or home buyer, you might have trouble getting a decent mortgage because in that scenario the banks might tighten lending rules in an attempt to protect themselves from further downside. Also, if you are buying to live - if the place you are looking for becomes an overnight forest of "For Sale" you might not want to live in that neighborhood: the place you live is only attractive because of the community that lives there. ie. it might become a cesspool of backyard mosquito pools and theives tearing up copper wire during the day or more positive scenario it becomes a rental market and you get sketch neigbors who come and go.
Like I have the capacity to give a shit about China. My hands are full trying to interprete the US catastrophe. Far second, I try to stay informed about Europe, then third Japan (esp. Fukishima).
My "best" China opinion is... rotz of ruck, bitchez
Oh crap, I knew I should have bought something gold-related on Friday afternoon. Instead I went inverse SPY. I'm going to have my *ss handed to me on Monday!
I did the both, but in case of SPY I went 2X.
I'm not too concerned at this point. My gut feeling is this correction will continue.
"the Great Rotation out of bonds and into stocks"
But who will be rotating out of stocks? For those rotating out of bonds into stocks, someone has to sell stocks for them to buy.
The solution to the hot money problem is so simple and should be easy for the Chinese.
Send hit squads to take out the squid's heads, along with a few other top banksters, boom no more hot money flowing into China.
Imagine waking up one morning and seeing that Blankfein, Dimon, and the rest of the parasitic class were all dead.
My god, I think I would finally feel what freedom feels like. Like absolute euphoria.
Except that the hot money in China is largely money that their exporters park outside of China and bring in at opportune times.
China had been letting the Yuan appreciate against the usd, to offset internal inflation. It looks like the liquidity crunch, and overall slow down put the brakes on that theme.
Was: Indo-China
Soon to be: Implo-China
With increase mortgage rates house sales have completely frozen where I live and houses only sell at 30% discount below list price now....sort of like clothing. No one is sucker eough to pay full price anymore.
My impression is that China could have moved faster into higher added value production and increased productivity and increased wages faster than they have.
One example: In the US, assembly line worker wages make up a mere 10 % of the total costs for auto manufacturers. So if we assume that Chinese auto workers only get 20 % of the pay an American auto worker gets that means 2 % of the total cost. And that means in turn that a 2 % increase in productivity in Chinese auto plants would be enough to offset doubled wages for assembly line workers. Remember that Henry Ford in early 1914 could double the pay to his assembly line workers to $5 a day. Since an entry-level Model T at that point sold for $440 that meant that pay for 88 days of work equalled a new Model T. And that was 99 years ago!
But it´s much harder to double the pay for shoe manufacturing workers since labour costs for such products constitute a higher percentage of the total cost. Therefore, I assume that China would have been much better off if they had invested less in housing and more in factory equipment and tooling and raised wages.
Furthermore, it seems as if the Chinese leaders understand that excessive housing, especially unoccupied housing, does not result in sustainable growth. And injecting more liquidity does not solve the problem I described above if this money is not used for increased productivity.
I don´t get why the Chinese leaders seem to do very little to encourage increased productivity in the Chinese economy although they openly say that they want more sustainable growth (than building new houses can create). There got to be a reason for that. Since they understand that unoccupied housing does not create sustainable growth and since most of them are engineers and since engineering usually takes more brains than basic economics I don´t understand why they seem almost reluctant to encourage higher productivity, a faster transition to higher added value production and higher wages. And they got all the blue-prints on how to move forward.
One problem is of course that China´s exports to a large extent depends on cheap labour. But if they increase the domestic purchasing power and reduce imports of goods like aircraft and produce them in China instead it should be possible to offset reduced exports of goods that depend on cheap labour.
Try this: China Financial Markets
China Export Gains Seen Halved With Fake-Data Crackdown
5 June 2013, (Bloomberg)
Telegraphing much? "Xi Joins Li in Indicating China Tolerance for Slower Growth Rate"
"China's President Xi Jinping indicated a tolerance for slower expansion to avoid environmental degradation, adding to signs that the government will limit temporary boosts for the economy as officials map out plans for market-based changes to drive long-term expansion."
I doubt any money movers and those in power really care about the environment (unless the population becomes outraged enough and starts acting up), but to claim tolerance of slower expansion due to that sole reason ... lol. Grasping at straws.
This is by far the best analysis currently available on the current state of affairs in China. Thank you, Tylers. Fire Angel

subset: commoncrawl


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Try this chalkboard science experiment The chalk experiment comes from Ms. (Margaret) Young's first grade class at Baker Demonstration School. The chalk experiment started on Dec. 19, 2002. The chalk experiment was founded by Ryan and Sidney in Ms. Young's class. One day while trying to make an apple tree, Sidney filled in an apple with red chalk. When she was finished, thinking the chalk would fall, she let go. But the chalk was stuck on the board!
She raced to tell Ms. Young. She called up all of the class, including (the teacher's assistant) Ms. (Tina) Kubicek. None of them could figure out why it stuck. Then Ms. Kubicek's dad pointed out that the chalkboard is porous-porous is teeny-tiny holes too small to be seen. The chalk dust goes in the porous surface. It starts the cohesive process-cohesive is when one thing sticks to another.
For example when you hang up a picture with tape, the tape uses cohesive power to stick to the surface. When you rub chalk on the board, the porous surface sucks it in using cohesive power. Voila! Chalk sticks to chalk.
Our chalk experiment lasted a long time- until the school custodian cleaned the whole chalkboard by mistake. Before the custodian accidentally washed off the chalkboard on March 18, there were a bunch of chalk pieces stuck up there from Ms. Young's first- grade classes. Our oldest piece of chalk was washed off, too. It was Julian's piece. It had stayed up 15 months! It was put up on Dec. 19, 2002!
The experiment is cool. You should try it at home or at school if you have a chalkboard. Here is how you do it:
1. Take some chalk. Start with a small piece. (The smaller the chalk, the easier it is.)
2. Rub the chalk slowly up and down until you have a flat edge against the chalkboard.
3. Then, press down on the chalk.
4. Then, gently let go of the chalk. (Sometimes it doesn't work, though. If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.) John Baker, 7, Evanston
Mysterious invisible boy a good read In Things Not Seen, a boy named Bobby turns invisible and doesn't know how it happens. He can't tell anyone about it because then news people would come and keep bugging his family.
His dad is a scientist, so he checks out what Bobby used the day and night he turned invisible. He thinks something made it happen. He thinks it's the electric blanket that Bobby used.
Bobby tries to find another invisible person that turned invisible the same way. He does find another person, but you have to read the book to see what happens next.
I recommend this book for anyone who loves mystery books. Rebecca Kulik, 10, Downers Grove
The cat who was red and small There lived a cat named Magwa who was very small but wanted to be big. Magwa was red and angry about that too. All the other cats were not red. She didn't know what to do.
Along came a zebra and said, "I'm much bigger than you" and Magwa said, "If you were in my skin, you'd be small too."
Zebra said, " If you were in my skin, you'd be big and have stripes like me."
Then Zebra walked away and said, "Hah! She should have been bigger. I didn't even hear what she said!"
Then a tiger came and said to Magwa, "That Zebra who walked by you said that he couldn't even hear you. Why don't you hop on my back and then everyone can hear you?"
Magwa said, "You have orange and I have red. No other animals have that. Can we be friends and live together?"
"Yes," said the tiger, "I don't have children. You could be my child. I will be your mother."
They lived together and had a happy life. Later Magwa married another tiger and moved to a new cave and had cat babies of her own.
The end. Taskeen Khan, 6, Glendale Heights
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