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Guest Post: Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like
Submitted by Gonzalo Lira
Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like
I usually don't do follow-up pieces to any of my posts. But my recent longish piece, describing how hyperinflation might happen in the United States, clearly struck a nerve.
It was a long, boring, snowy piece of macro-economic policy speculation, discussing Treasury yields, Federal Reserve Board monetary reaction, and the difference between inflation and hyperinflation—but considering the traffic it generated, I might as well been discussing relative breast size in the porn industry. With pictures.
Essentially, I argued that Treasury bonds are the New and Improved Toxic Assets. I argued that, if there was a run on Treasuries, the Federal Reserve—in its anti-deflationary zeal, and its efforts to prop up bond market prices—would over-react, and set off a run on commodities. This, I argued, would trigger hyperinflation.
The disproportionate attention my post garnered is indicative of people's current fears. As I've said before, people aren't blind or stupid, even if they often act that way. People are worried—they're worried about the current state of affairs: Massive quantitative easing, toxic assets replaced by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government in the shape of Treasuries, fiscal debt which cannot possibly be repaid, a second leg down in the Global Depression that seems endless and only getting worse—people are scared. Many readers gave me quite a bit of useful feedback, critiques, suggestions and comments on the piece—clearly, what I was discussing touched on a deeply felt concern.
However, there were two issues that many readers had a hard time wrapping their minds around, with regards to a hyperinflationary event:
The first was, Where does all the money come from, for hyperinflation to happen? The question wasn't put as baldly as that—it was wrapped up in sophisticated discussions about M1, M2 and M3 money supply, as well as clever talk about the velocity of money—the acceleration of money—the anti-lock brakes on money. There were even equations thrown around, for good measure.
But stripped of all the high-falutin' language, the question was, "Where's all the dough gonna come from?" After all, as we know from our history books, hyperinflation involves people hoisting bundles and bundles of high-denomination bills which aren't worth a damn, and tossing them into the chimney—'cause the bundles of cash are cheaper than firewood. If the dollar were to crash, where would all these bundles of $100 bills come from?
The second question was, Why will commodities rise, while equities, real estate and other assets fall? In other words, if there is an old fashioned run on a currency—in this case, the dollar, the world's reserve currency—why would people get out of the dollar into commodities only, rather than into equities and real estate and other assets?
In this post, I'm going to address both of these issues.
Apart from what happened with the Weimar Republic in the 1920's, advanced Western economies have no experience with hyperinflation. (I actually think that the high inflation that struck the dollar in the 1970's, and which was successfully choked off by Paul Volcker, was in fact an incipient bout of commodity-driven hyperinflation—but that's for some other time.) Though there were plenty of hyperinflationary events in the XIX century and before, after the Weimar experience, the advanced economies learned their lesson—and learned it so well, in fact, that it's been forgotten.
However, my personal history gives me a slight edge in this discussion: During the period 1970–'73, Chile experienced hyperinflation, brought about by the failed and corrupt policies of Salvador Allende and his Popular Unity Government. Though I was too young to experience it first hand, my family and some of my older friends have vivid memories of the Allende period—vivid memories that are actually closer to nightmares.
The causes of Chile's hyperinflation forty years ago were vastly different from what I believe will cause American hyperinflation now. But a slight detour through this history is useful to our current predicament.
To begin: In 1970, Salvador Allende was elected president by roughly a third of the population. The other two-thirds voted for the centrist Christian Democrat candidate, or for the center-right candidate in roughly equal measure. Allende's election was a fluke.
He wasn't a centrist, no matter what the current hagiography might claim: Allende was a hard-core Socialist, who headed a Hard Left coalition called the Unidad Popular—the Popular Unity (UP, pronounced "oo-peh"). This coalition—Socialists, Communists, and assorted Left parties—took over the administration of the country, and quickly implemented several "reforms", which were designed to "put Chile on the road to Socialism".
Land was expropriated—often by force—and given to the workers. Companies and mines were also nationalized, and also given to the workers. Of course, the farms, companies and mines which were stripped from their owners weren't inefficient or ineptly run—on the contrary, Allende and his Unidad Popular thugs stole farms, companies and mines from precisely the "blood-thirsty Capitalists" who best treated their workers, and who were the most fair towards them.
Allende's government also put UP-loyalists in management positions in those nationalized enterprises—a first step towards implementing a Leninist regime, whereby the UP would have "political control" over the means of production and distribution. From speeches and his actions, it's clear that Allende wanted to implement a Maoist-Leninist regime, with himself as Supreme Leader.
One of the key policy initiative Allende carried out was wage and price controls. In order to appease and co-opt the workers, Allende's regime simultaneously froze prices of basic goods and services, and augmented wages by decree.
At first, this measure worked like a charm: Workers had more money, but goods and services still had the same old low prices. So workers were happy with Allende: They went on a shopping spree—and rapidly emptied stores and warehouses of consumer goods and basic products. Allende and the UP Government then claimed it was right-wing, anti-Revolutionary "acaparadores"—hoarders—who were keeping consumer goods from the workers. Right.
Meanwhile, private companies—forced to raise worker wages while maintaining their same price structures—quickly went bankrupt: So then, of course, they were taken over by the Allende government, "in the name of the people". Key industries were put on the State dole, as it were, and made to continue their operations at a loss, so as to satisfy internal demand. If there was a cash shortfall, the Allende government would simply print more escudos and give them to the now State-controlled companies, which would then pay the workers.
This is how hyperinflation started in Chile. Workers had plenty of cash in hand—but it was useless, because there were no goods to buy.
So Allende's government quickly instituted the Juntas de Abastecimiento y Control de Precios ("Unions of Supply and Price Controls", known as JAP). These were locally formed boards, composed of loyal Party members, who decided who in a given neighborhood received consumer products, and who did not. Naturally, other UP-loyalists had preference—these Allende backers received ration cards, with which to buy consumer goods and basic staples.
Of course, those people perceived as "unfriendly" to Allende and the UP Government either received insufficient rations for their families, or no rations at all, if they were vocally opposed to the Allende regime and its policies.
Very quickly, a black market in goods and staples arose. At first, these black markets accepted escudos. But with each passing month, more and more escudos were printed into circulation by the Allende government, until by late '72, black marketeers were no longer accepting escudos. Their mantra became, "Sólo dólares": Only dollars.
Hyperinflation had arrived in Chile.
(Most Chileans, myself included, find ourselves both amused and irritated, whenever Americans self-righteously claim that Nixon ruined Chile's economy, and thereby derailed Allende's "Socialist dream". Yes, according to Kissinger's memoirs, Nixon did in fact tell the CIA that he wanted Chile's economy to "scream"—but Allende did such a bang-up job of fucking up Chile's economy all on his own that, by the time Richard Helms got around to implementing his pissant little plots against the Chilean economy, there was not much left to ruin.)
One of the effects of Chile's hyperinflation was the collapse in asset prices.
This would seem counterintuitive. After all, if the prices of consumer goods and basic staples are rising in a hyperinflationary environment, then asset prices should rise as well—right? Equities should rise in price—since more money is chasing after the same number of stock. Real estate prices should rise also—and for the same reason. Right?
Actually, wrong—and for a simple reason: Once basic necessities are unmet, and remain unmet for a sustained period of time, any asset will be willingly and instantly sacrificed, in order to meet that basic need.
To put it in simple terms: If you were dying of thirst in the middle of the desert, would you give up your family heirloom diamonds, in exchange for a gallon of water? The answer is obvious—yes. You would sacrifice anything and everyting—instantly—in order to meet your basic needs, or those of your family.
So as the situation in Chile deteriorated in '72 and into '73, the stock market collapsed, the housing market collapsed—everything collapsed, as people either cashed out of their assets in order to buy basic goods and staples on the black market, or cashed out so as to leave the country altogether. No asset class was safe, from this sell-off—it was across-the-board, and total.
Now let's return to the possibility of hyperinflation in the United States:
If there were a sudden collapse in the Treasury bond market, I argued that sellers would take their cash and put them into commodities. My reasoning was, they would seek a sure store of value. If Treasury bonds ceased to be that store of value, then people would invest in the next best thing, which would be commodities, especially precious and industrial metals, as well as oil—in other words, non-perishable commodities.
Some people argued this point with me. They argued many different approaches to the problem, but essentially, it all boiled down to the argument that commodities and precious metals have no intrinsic value.
Actually, I think they're right. In a strict sense, only oxygen, food and water have intrinsic value to human beings—everything else is superfluous. Therefore the value of everything else is arbitrary.
Yet both gold and silver have, historically, been considered valuable. Setting aside a theoretical or mathematical construct that would justify the value of gold and silver, look at it from a practical standpoint: If I went to a farmer with five ounces of silver, would he give me a sack of grain? Probably. If I offered him an ounce of gold for two or three pigs, would he give them to me? Again, probably.
Where there is a human society, there is a need to exchange. Where there is a need to exchange, a medium of exchange will soon appear. Gold and silver (and copper and brass and other metals) have served that purpose for literally millennia, but then they were replaced by paper.
Right now, there are two forms of paper currency: Actual dollars, and Treasury bonds. One is a medium of exchange, the other a store of value.
If Treasuries—the store of value—were to collapse in price, and the Fed—as I predict—tried everything in its power to at least initially prop up their prices, would those sellers who managed to get out of Treasuries in time then turn around and invest in even dodgier bits of paper, like stocks? Or REIT's? Or even precious metal ETF's?
No they would not: They would get out of Treasuries—supposedly the "safest" investment there is—and get into something even safer—something even more tangible: Actual commodities. Not ETF's, not even futures (or anything else that entails counterparty risk)—sellers of Treasuries would get into actual, hard commodities. Because if suddenly even the safest of all investment vehicles is now unsafe, do you really want to get behind the wheel of an even more unsafe vehicle, like stocks or corporate bonds or ETF's? I mean, c'mon: If Treasuries crash, what else might crash?
That's why people in a Treasury panic would buy commodities. This ballooning of non-perishable commodities would be as a means to store value. Because that's what people do in a panic—they batten down the hatches, and go into what's safest. When the stock markets tanked in the Fall of '08, where did all that sellers' cash go? To Treasuries—because it was then considered the safest store of value. Commodities suffered in comparison—gold took a bit of a hit, as did the other precious metals—but Treasuries ballooned as the equities markets tanked.
But if Treasuries—the ultimate store of value—now tanked? If the last sure-thing in paper-based stores of value took a hit, where would people go to both store value, and have ready access to that value?
Commodities. And this rush to commodities, I argued, would trigger hyperinflation.
Now, I said I would answer two questions—one was why commodities would outpace all other asset classes in a Treasury panic and subsequent hyperinflation. The other question was, "Where's all the dough to feed my fireplace gonna come from, in a hyperinflationary event?"
The first wave of dollars in a hyperinflationary event will come from people's savings accounts.
If Treasuries tank, and the markets all barrel into commodities, then prices will rise for regular consumers—this should not be a controversial inference. What would consumers do, with suddenly much higher gas prices, and soon much higher food prices? Simple: They'll bust open their piggy banks, whatsoever those piggy banks might happen to be: 401(k)s, whatever equities they might have, etc.
But if the higher consumer prices continue—or become worse—what will happen to the 320 million American consumers? They'll start buying more gas now, rather than wait around for tomorrow—and the market will react to this. How? Two way: Prices of commodities will rise even further—and asset prices will fall even lower.
Again, the man in the desert, the diamonds, and the water: If American consumers are getting hit at the gas station and the supermarket, they'll start selling everything so as to buy gas, heating oil (most especially) and foodstuffs. The Treasury panic will thus be transfered to the average consumer—from Wall Street to Main Street by way of $15 a gallon gas prices, and $10 a gallon heating oil prices.
All other consumer prices would soon follow the leads of gas, heating oil and food.
In the above bit of Chilean history, I described how the Allende government printed up escudos to make up for the shortfall in nationalized businesses that was produced by their policy of hiking wages, while at the same time fixing prices.
This is a completely different way to hyperinflation than the way I envision it for the American economy—but once the American economy gets there, the effects of hyperinflation will be exactly the same: People will try to get out of assets in order to get hold of commodities. To get all eccy about it, money velocity would approach infinity, as money supply remains (at first) fixed, yet in the panic over commodities, aggregate demand as measured by aggregate transactions goes vertical.
Would there be Federal government intervention of some sort? Most definitely—people would be screaming for it. Would food rationing be implemented? Probably, and probably by way of the current Food Stamps program. Troops on the streets, protecting gas stations and supermarkets? Curfews to prevent looting? Palliative dollar printing? Yes, yes, and very likely yes.
That last bit—palliative dollar-printing: That's the key. When palliative dollar-printing happens, it will be the final stages of hyperinflation—it's when sensible people ought to realize that the crisis is almost over, and that a new normal will soon appear. But this stage will be fucking awful.
Palliative dollar printing will take place when the Federal government simply runs out of options. Smart economists will get on CNBC and argue that, "The velocity of money is destroying the economy—we must expand the currency base!" It'll sound logical, but palliative money-printing will be a policy option born out of panic. The final policy option. It won't be done for evil conspiratorial reasons—always remember Aphorism #6 ("Never ascribe to malice what can be explained by incompetence."). It'll be carried out because of fear and panic.
A whole boatload of fools in Washington, on seeing this terrible commodity-driven crisis unfold, with consumer prices shooting the moon, will scream for dollars to be printed—and their rationale will be perfectly reasonable, I can practically hear it now: "We've got to get cash into the hands of the average American citizen, so he or she can buy food and heating oil for their families! We can't let Americans starve and freeze to death!"
Palliative money-printing will take place—hence the average American family will likely be using bundles of $100 bills to fire up the chimney that hyperinflationary winter.
Now, this fairly Apocalyptic scenario is simultaneously horrifying, and exciting as all get out. Hell, why do you think disaster movies are so popular? Shit blowing up is way cool! That's why Roland Emmerich gets paid the big bucks, God bless 'im.
But for sensible people, Apocalypse is a distraction—it's not the main event. For sensible people who want to be prepared, Apocalypse represents opportunities.
A true story: In '73, at the height of the Allende-created hyperinflation, an uncle of mine, who was then a college student, was offered an apartment in exchange for his car. That's right—an apartment. He owned a crappy little Fiat 147—a POS if ever there was such a thing—but cars in Chile in the middle of that hyperinflation were so scarce, and considered so valuable, that he was offered an apartment in exchange. To this day, my uncle still tells the story—with deep regret, because he didn't follow through on the offer: "That Fiat was in the junkyard by '78, but that apartment still stands! And today it's worth nearly a half a million dollars!" Actually, I think it's worth a bit more than that.
Another true story: A banker friend of mine manages the assets of a fabulously wealthy 70-something gentleman, whom I'll call Alfredo. In 1973, Don Alfredo was a youngish man, just starting out, with a degree in engineering but no money—until he inherited US$3,000 from a deceased aunt. Alfredo realized that the $3,000 were in a sense worthless: He couldn't buy anything with them, and it wasn't enough for him to leave the country and start over someplace else. After all, even then, $3,000 was not that much money.
So he took those $3,000, went down to the stock exchange, and spent all of it on Chilean blue-chip companies: Mining companies, chemical companies, paper companies, and so on. The stock were selling for nothing—less than penny stock—because of the disastrous policies of the Allende government. His stock broker at the time told him not to buy stocks, as Allende's government, it was thought, would soon nationalize these companies as well.
Alfredo ignored his broker, and went ahead with the stock purchases: He spent all of his $3,000 on buckets of near-worthless equities.
On September 11, 1973, the commanders in chief of the four branches of the Chilean military staged a coup d'état. Within a year, Alfredo's stock had rebounded about ten-fold. Since then, they've multiplied several thousand-fold—yes: Several thousand-fold. Don Alfredo has lived off of that $3,000 investment ever since—it's what made him a multi-millionare today.
He realized, of course, that either those blue-chip companies would be nationalized by Allende—in which case he would lose all his $3,000 inheritance, which really wouldn't change his fortunes very much—or somehow a new normal would arrive in Chile. Since the $3,000 couldn't buy him anything, he took a gamble—and won.
What do these two true stories tell us? Simple: Buy when there's blood on the streets.
That's Baron de Rothschild's famous line—but it hides a key insight, one which should be highlighted perhaps even more forcefully than the line itself:
Even in the midst of Apocalypse, things will get better.
That's something people don't quite seem to understand. In fact, it's why teenagers tragically kill themselves over some girl or boy: They don't realize that, no matter how bad things are now, they will get better later. To repeat:
Even in the midst of Apocalypse, things will get better.
I'm not repeating this insight as an empty comfort to my readers—I'm saying it as a trading strategy. When things are at their crazy worst, when everyone believes the Apocalypse is well nigh here, that's when thing are about to turn for the better. This applies to every situation—including and most especially in a hyperinflationary situation.
Why? Simple: Because hyperinflation—by definition—cannot last. Because people need a stable medium of exchange. So if the currency goes up in flames in a hyperinflationary fire, of course there will be a period of terrifying instability—but it will pass. Either the currency will be repaired somehow (as Volcker repaired the dollar back in 1980–'82). Or the currency will be completely and irrevocably trashed—and then be replaced by something else. Because—to insist—people need a stable medium of exchange.
If Treasuries tank and commodities shoot up so high that they essentially break the dollar, civilization will not come crashing down into anarchy. At worst, there'll be a three-four years of hell—economic hell. Financial hell. But then things will settle down into a new normal.
This new normal might well have unsavory characteristics. I tend to be a pessimist, and just glancing through history, I can see that just about every period of hyperinflation has been stabilized by some subsequent form of autocratic or totalitarian government. The United States currently has all the legal decisions and practical devices to quickly transition into an authoritarian or totalitarian regime, should a crisis befall the nation: The so-called PATRIOT Acts, the Department of Homeland Security Agency, the practical suspension of habeas corpus, etc., etc.
But as I said in my previous post, and reiterate here: Speculations about the new normal are pointless at this time. The future will happen soon enough.
What I do know is, One, a hyperinflationary event will happen, following the crash in Treasuries. Two, commodities will be the go-to medium for value storage. Three, all asset classes will collapse in short order. And Four—and most importantly—civil society will not collapse along with the dollar. Civil society will stumble about like a drunken sailor, but eventually right itself and carry on with a new normal.
During that stumble, opportunities will present themselves. I hope I have explained why.
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Sweet baby Jesus, here we go again!
guns and gardens bitchez!!
and GOLD too. but guess what, Fort Knox is prolly empty so don't count on any new U.S. currency backed by gold. Ron Paul will introduce legislation next month to AUDIT FORT KNOX GOLD RESERVES. we all know it's been "sold" to the banksters so let's just take the red pill and deal with it.
Soon trying to audit gold reserve or anything Fed wants to hide will be treated as an act of treason or terrorism.
Mr. Lira: FAIL
—from Wall Street to Main Street by way of $15 a gallon gas prices, and $10 a gallon heating oil prices.
Wheat from the Dakotas @ $15 a gallon? Oranges from Florida? No more worries about poisoned Gulf shrimp - they won't be shipping it anymore. An analysis of how a new currency will remedy our service economy sans imports would far more interesting.
I can just see Lakers fans waiting outside distribution centers:
"Ma'am, put down that stick, diapers and formula haven't arrived yet. Please be patient...(inaudible)...No, you still won't have to pay for it...I know your babies are hungry...I don't care if your TV isn't working anymore...No, we don't have any prescription pills...I already told you, please go home and please put down that stick...I don't have any water...I know you walked two hours, I can see that."
Everyone standing in a line, all nice and orderly (LOL). It's the walk home you have to worry about - defending oneself against those not willing to wait in line. Maybe their ration card was revoked for a violation. Maybe they already used it for the week and their kids are still hungry. What will you do if some sort of "enforcement officer" knocks on your door and needs to inspect something in your home? Are they really there to enforce "the Law".
Forget driving to work - plenty of abandoned cars will start blocking roadways. Where will the tow-trucks put them all? They can't wait in line for fuel and clear roadways simultaneously? Don't forget to put a bicycle tube repair kit in your pocket!
Palliative money-printing will take place—hence the average American family will likely be using bundles of $100 bills to fire up the chimney that hyperinflationary winter.
I'm sure you mean they will try to deposit money in consumer accounts, no? Can you imagine armed convoys full of soon-to-be-worthless paper? That's for the movies. What's that about a new currency?
And while the opportunistic portion of your readers is out following your advice to buy! buy! buy! how will they feed themselves on a daily basis? With healthy, rosy cheeks they will become targets - if you're not within eyesight of an armed checkpoint consider yourself "fair game".
Maybe your readers are smarter than that. They'll be headed to the farms; pockets full of PMs; hoping farmer Joe still has wheat and hogs to sell. Surely no one can pedal as fast as your readers! A little squeal from the hog over every bump in the road. Any hog will like that new apartment!
How about a little twist for perspective:
Even in the midst of [the Black Plague], things will get better.
In other words: don't get sick! I am sure that medical facilities will be swamped with walk-ins. Pun intended.
Otherwise the articles are great!
Zimbabwe baby!
Got Food?
Got Gold?
Civil society?
Fort Knox: A US Taxpayer funded site which looks after Rothschild money...prob's!
what I like about these 2 articles is the distinction he makes with asset classes - I cant remember how many comments on ZH over the months people have talked about hyperinflation like it will raise house and car prices. Uh-uh, its food and fuel that go through the moon and every other asset class be damned and sacrified. One guy coined a good phrase for the misconception - Biflation - but when you understand the way hyperinflation plays out you dont need the phrase coined to start with
The problem with the above article is the author is missing the key point of DEBT and CASH. Debt is not the same as CASH. DEBT is illiquid (represents FUTURE cash) and Cash is Liquidity. We have 40 years of debt buildup into trillions and the debt to cash ratio is 50:1 or more.
Debt is a BLACK HOLE that is sucking everything into the vortex and it is the reason why the Fed is powerless. They CANNOT print their way into prosperity and the underpinnings of the DEBT PYRAMID have eroded and all the Fed is trying to do is to desperately shore it up.
You're not wrong about the debt problem, of course, but just whilst we're on the subject of 'missing key points':
Palliative money-printing will take place—hence the average American family will likely be using bundles of $100 bills to fire up the chimney that hyperinflationary winter.
What are you saying, exactly? There'll be no hyperinflation, because once people have too much money but no bread, they'll pay back their debts?
I don't think the purpose of the Fed is to bring prosperity. It's rather to prevent the existance of such an institution, by dressing up as one, which is obviously working.
Hey, Gonzalo, nice job, for a "novelist and filmmaker."
A Space Engineer and Circulatory System Analyst
So, you fit toilets into bathroom spaces?
"Sweet baby Jesus, here we go again!"
Exactly what I was thinking, the author that doesn't even know the correct definition of "inflation" is going to write another stupid article on "hyperinflation".
....some of the more cunning folks have already stashed away ammo (as evidenced by the shortage of available ammo for the past 2 years). It will be the new coin of the realm..."how much do you want for that lb. of bacon"...."let's see, that would be five 223's and the sales tax would add four 22lr's.....if you have one 50BMG, you could get 4 lbs."
I heard today the EPA is going to ban lead in bullets thus raising the price and dropping the performance of most ammo. Thoughts?
You have to ask yourself what Adolph (the guy with the mustache) would do, if he was planning a total takeover.
....out here in the land of fun and sun we have already dropped lead since the endangered condors (which came here from So. America and are not native) were supposedly endangered by lead...
Raising the price: yes. Dropping the performance: no. Check out the Cor-Bon solid copper bullets, or better yet DoubleTap. Penetrates like an FMJ but expands like bonded JHP...
Actually, the performance you are referring to is efficiency, not effectiveness. Many common substitutes for lead would make rounds MORE ARMOR PIERCING !
W is great.
There's been talk of that for a long time. Don't know if it's getting new traction or not.
I suppose it could happen. If it does the Mexicans should start making and smuggling ammo.
Stock up on ammo and get reloading supplies if you are concerned.
Thought of that. I understand the last shortage period was because of demand for primers and reloaders are last on the list to have them available. Either way, things might get tough on this end of the supply chain.
Primers are cheap. Buy them in bulk now. Buy more than you think you will need.
Also, it is possible to make your own primers if you have to. White phospherous is widely available in strike matches.
Buy some molds to cast your own. Lead can be found in lots of places if you're resouceful. Not the ballistic equivalent of a FMJ, but will work loaded down.
Heck, I guess you could cast them from silver just as well, and will take down werewolves, banksters, etc.
lotsa' brushes and Hoppes--our Pb gonna foul the barrels.
Civil war way to clear foul'd barrel was to pee into them. Come to think of it, Manilla John's way to cool a MG barrel was the same.
Don't cha know.
- Ned
no, i don't, cha know fuck, don't cha know.
Hey New Meat, your local scuba dive shop has plenty of lead weights, think about it.
Must see.
Not a bad suggestion. Certain bullet moulds are made for different types of lead/alloy composition. The alloy typically added to lead is tin as it is cheap and adds hardness. Many moulds are made specifically for the use of wheel weights; another source of a cheap, hard lead alloy.
I rather run out of money than run out of bullets.
By the way, EPA is talking about banning lead ammunition and fishing sinkers. How else are they going to effectively remove the second ammendment? Congress won't do it so they need a body without checks and balances.
If you couldn't figure it out from the above; I will not be complying.
Modern day shooters running corrosive rounds piss down their barrels in a pinch. Natures cleaning kit.
Yes, I posted that in a diferent thread ealier here today.
First, the EPA has it's hands MORE than Full.
They are trying to initiate the Climate Control/Carbon shit, into 20yr old existing LAWS.
That is Illegal..............Texas is saying FU.
You(EPA) do not have the power, nor the authority to change or add to pre-existing Laws, passed by Congress.............nkow what?.
They do not have the authority, and if they push it, we will have a shit storm.(WE as a state are in compliance, and are under the emissons limits).
So, we have a major illegal take over via the EPA coming(trying to).
Secondly,if not one more Cartridge was produced today, ever.In America, there is enough in the hands of the people to have fought WWII,Iraq, and Afganistan, and have lots left over.(during the'94 Clintonista AWB scare), I called SOG out of Ohio, to ask about a particular item.
This was on a Sat..they were open 8:00-12:00 CST,it was close to go home time.
The gentleman I spoke with, after I jokingly asked him how were sales, without any further prodding, he said they had SOLD over 1 Billion rounds, of ONE caliber that day.... in 4 hours.
Now, stop and think about all the other stores in America, and RUNS we have had on AR's, AK Replicas,etc,before, and SINCE Clinton, and trillions of rds that are stashed and in Americans hands.
The SAME exact thing happened on an even larger scale when Obammmy was elected...........those are facts, not thoughts.
Do you actually think, the fools( all 200-300 of them) on the hill, are stupid enough to come after over 200 million KNOWN weapons, and with 80 million plus gun owners in a country the size of America,and expect a voluntary turn in?.
Dream on...............they have to go thru the NRA, and the GOA first..........and that's not a good thing, for them.
This town's best mechanic is also a gun dealer. Right after the Obama coronation he did a series of bulk purchases of AR15s, of 70 or 80 at a time. Buyers lined up to pay in advance, well below retail. And this is an Army town, already full of guns.
Guy I know in rural NC went and bought $12,000 of guns & ammo the day after Obama won the election.
Since then, I went and bought an AK-47 and a Beretta 9 mm. I have 500 rounds each, and have field-stripped each weapon once. I was never in the military, but I at least have joined the 80,000,000 gun owners here in America.
If I had to guess, the oathkeepers.org links into our Armed Forces would mean that our military would not fire on us citizens if it comes to that.
They will never get our guns and they will never get our gold!
You have the rifles but get training...knowing how to break it down isn't going to help you use the weapon. Try Appleseed...rifle training that teaches you how to shoot a rifle well enough to hit a target out to 500 yards and it is cheap for the 2 day class. If you don't have time for that try a one day...
Our military is the finest trained and smartest the world has ever known...as a group. However, some individuals in the Army and Navy (who have never been able to be as circumspect in their recruiting as the AF and USMC) have a gang problem.
Plus, it probably won't be the military but the cops--and cops are...well, unreliable at best in their understanding of Constitutional authority. If things get bad, and them being an asshole to you is how they keep their job and feed THEIR family? All bets are off. Best not to be near a population center to interact with cops in the first place if this gets bad...
All Congress, or your state or county leadership, has to do in convince the local PoPo to begin taking away your toys. In fact, the NOPD decided to do this all by themselves and they had the Coast Guard acting similarly...see for yourself http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4
According to Dmitri Orlov (reported on his experiences with the financial collapse of the USSR), the PoPo is quick to form its own gang to take control.
They got one shot at the kitty and the SCOTUS declared it unconstitutional... so, at this point, how do you propose they do that again, the rest of the country knowing it is illegal for the police to do so and that they're empowered to resist arrest? Maybe if you can sequester individuals, then one by one you could do it... but you try that shit in a lot of southern or western neighborhoods, and you're going to get... resistance... in short order. Presuming the police forces even try and do it knowing it is illegal.
EPA can't effectively ban jacketed lead ammo when a day or two of work on my drill press and a couple of pieces of steel later, I have myself some dies to jacket my own ammo. You can make 53gr FMJ using lead wire or wheel weights and spent .22LR casings all day long. No shit.
This is not a road they want to go down.
The real threat to arms availability is banning conventional primers, also over "lead" issues. And even that can only go so far... you can actually remanufacture your own primers using spent ones and some basic chemistry, as long as you use good hearing and eye protection.
I heard the same thing. And if you make them out of any other kind of metal they would be considered armor piercing, which are illegal. They're not gonna take our gun's just the ammo. TSWHTF
Bring It - The modern rounds like the SS190 are all aluminium with a steel rod inserted (or polythene+steel "penetrator"). They do nasty things to car doors, helmets and body armour, that the po-lice wont like. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5.7x28mm
The cun(t)sumer version will probably be copper-jacketed clay something ....
During WWII in the European POW camps starving soldiers would trade their Red Cross vittles for cigarettes. After the war, the currency in Germany WAS cigarettes.
Check out King Rat for a fictional POW currency story.
He was a Japanese POW during WWII. Wouldn't surprise me if elements of King Rat didn't come from that experience. Couldn't say how much, though. It's a good read, regardless.
Am currently stocking bags of loose tobacco and cigarette papers, along with coffee and cheap booze. Having dabbled in the black markets in various interesting parts of the world over the last 40 years, all the sin stuff is better than ponzi paper. American tobacco always led the way though.
I need to do that. When I was contracting in the bush I used to keep a pack of Drum and papers in the glove box. So planters who ran out would quit whining about having to go to town. Addictions rule.
"all the sin stuff"
cossack, the light turned on! I am going to see if I can load up on prescription medicines (recreational) as a further diversification from my PMs and guns & ammo strategy to now.
Where can one get cigarettes in bulk for cheap?
You drank the Kool-Aid.
An healthy human immune system, umm, colony, is the most lethal system on earth.
Only works for some and has had either no benefit or has had adverse effects on other subjects, all partaking in a British study of the efficacy of manufacturers claims. The scientific world is divided.
Human health is best managed by natural means: good diet, probiotics and herbs. The scientific community has their heads firmly up the asses of every pharmaceutical corporation in the world.
Science is for the ignorant.
and the black plague rat in your backyard is perfectly harmless
i will need a year's worth of bandaids and neosporin, I am thinking.
RYO or roll your own for about $6dollars a carton probably cost you about $10, I'm in the business so I get a discount. And it helps cut out the gov from stealing from you (tax wise that is).
Indian tobacco shops don't charge tax. There are some big wholesalers in the Carolinas.
Cigars not taxed like cigarettes -- yet, although they tried.
Get 'em cheap!
"It will be the new coin of the realm..."
Interesting comparison of ammo vs. money...
Ammo is subject to the same (and more actually) confiscation concerns as gold or any other asset. Ammo can be seized and support therefor would be relatively broad.
Ammo is also, in a societal breakdown, relatively USELESS. Read that again.
You cannot shoot your way to prosperity. Ammo is a tool, if everyone is shooting, sure it's great to have, but not so great as being nowhere in the area. Short of societies under a state of siege warfare (like Serbia) ammo has not been a currency. And certainly, it has not compared to gold or silver or diamonds or art...ever.
Oh wait, you say, you can shoot animals with it. Riiiight. 300M starving people. How long you think the animal supply will last - look at Haiti. Some people are stockpiling 10,000 rounds...for what? Too heavy to transport, how could you ever shoot that much? Basically hoping for scarcity and black market need, hoping for violence, hoping for starvation. Ammo is a true vulture's play.
Look how much soldiers carry on patrol; there's your guide. What use would a pig owner have for ammunition once he already has some? Ammo may enter a value bubble, but there are so many rounds out there that they will be distributed and supply will begin to dwarf demand. If people are shooting THAT much, the demand will still drop because vast swathes of people will be shot dead.
Stockpiling ammunition is an idiot's errand.
Well, 777, speaking as an idiot I would have to disagree with most of your thoughts above, especially in regards to history.
Ammo is relatively cheap, is easily stored in 4' sections of 4" PVC and buried (not on my property) and will always bring profits in times of trouble. I have experienced it personally. I do not currently hunt and all my ammo is reserved for two legged game that may be hunting me.
Bottom line, drather have and not need than need and not have.
Suit yourself and I'll be looking for your bid.
PS Long shelf life.
I'm with you Cossack. Not sure about the profits aspect, but it is nice to have some when you need it. I prefer 8" pipe - with some clothing, food, a cheap firearm and ammo. A resourceful fellow can parlay an inexpensive rifle or handgun into an arsenal if he has to.
You think I don't have ample ammo?
Telling people to stockpile ammo and stockpiling ammo is an idiot's errand. Ammo has never, excepting nations at war and under siege, been a currency.
Ammo is USELESS in a breakdown. I know that's hard for you guys to grasp because you think you're the protagonist in SOCOM or Call of Duty.
2 legged predators? Nice fantasy. In madmax you want to avoid gunfights LIKE THE PLAGUE. I guess it never occurred to you geniuses that a gunshot wound without effective medical care means amputation or infection and death.
You want to stockpile something useful, stockpile antibiotics or aspirin. I feel like this place is Gorillas in the Mist sometimes, with the utterly nonsensical shit some of you say.
A person with a child dying from fever is your "captive audience." What the fuck does your ammo have to offer ANYONE except those who are interested in killing? According to you guys, the cities are already warzones and the zombies are about to start roaming the burbs looking for brains. Trust me, you guys are SAFE.
Trav, I'm just a little porcine target in all of this and I'm all-in with you. Andy taught me about ambushes and how sh- er stuff happens. So, if I'm going around by myself, well,that's one thing. If I'm having to secure anything, well, that's a whole 'nother matter.
- Ned
Medicine is always good to have on hand, no doubt. That's excellent advice.
Never had any luck getting close enough to deer and elk to administer a sedative, though. I usually just shoot them.
Ammo and medicine are like any other preparation, we hope they are useless. If you need them, they are priceless.
im with trav. lets say hyperinflationary societal breakdown lasts 3-5 years - thats probably pessimistic. You might have half a dozen occasions where you need to brandish a gun at someone in those years. Unless ur the kind of punk who would construe any challenging situation as an excuse to escalate a situation with firearms.
I wonder how many of the confessed mass ammo storers here have not gotten themselves out of debt yet - a much better way to prepare for the chaos
If society, currency and financial institutions break down, why is getting out of debt important? This suggestion is often brought up by many respected posters here and I'm curious as to your/their reasoning.
Stockpiling ammunition is an idiot's errand.
I guess that would depend on the size of the stockpile(s). I agree that 10k rounds seems excessive for one person, and that it may never be as good a store of value as other things.
But, like gold, silver, scotch, food and water, I'd sure hate to be in a position where I really needed some and didn't have enough. (Yeah, I put decent scotch on the same level as food and water.)
10,000 rounds can easily be shot up by an enthusiast in a matter of a couple of years. If you shoot once a week, 50 rds/wk, you're looking at 2500 rounds a year.
I'm no serious shooter, (I say that in deference to those that are) but I easily average between 1 and 2000 rounds a year, not counting rimfire. Depends on how much free time a guy gets.
If you shoot much less than that, you aren't going to need very much to defend yourself, cuz you ain't half the action hero you imagine yourself to be.
I burn 3000 rounds per year, always have a few on hand and a way to get to some more. Heck I can reload my own off spent brass if I get to the right people and assist them.
This is the time of getting to become one with your weapons while you have peace. Most people are sleeping, but we are getting ready.
For what?
Well. If people want my gas tank because gas is 15 dollars a gallon and they bring weapons ... that gas can is going to be thier pyre because I will tell them they can have it and as they walk away, light em up.
When I was actively competing I'd shoot 5,000 - 6,000 rounds of centerfire pistol a year. I see people at the range all the time who shoot a couple of times a year and think they are familiar or competent with their weapons. They're not.
But competitive shooting, ranges and plinking will be illegal if/when you need the ammo for more serious things. Shoot that many rounds for practice when the SHTF and you won't like the attention you draw.
+1 box of .40 S&W
Better still is to have your own vice, dies, a supply of lead, and some powder. Jus' sayin'...
Excellent post, trav7777. I will go one step further and ask the sociopathic ammo stackers on ZH to post their idiotic comments on a guns'n'ammo website, where they belong.
Ooops. Cummon Lizzie. Looks like I dun drank outta the finger washin bowl again and ruined Sabre's dinner party. Time for us to go biffour I piss all over her carpet.
As one of your "ammostackers", I would like to say that I agree with a lot of what Trav says. I too chuckle at some of the bunker dudes. (I am one)
You on the otherhand are an uppity fucker, and I cordially invite you to shove a two by four up your ass til you choke.
A 2X4 ... til he chokes?
I like your style!
Opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.
"10,000 rounds...for what? Too heavy to transport, how could you ever shoot that much?."
I used to shoot over 10k centerfire rifle a year, and over 25 k rds of CF Handgun a year.Didn't keep track of Rimfire.
So, 10k rds may seem like lot to you, not to others.
Typical US soldiers rig out is 250rds, of 5.56.( or used to be).
For barter purposes, I do not see a limit on how much of the popular kinds you could have stored properly.
And only an idiot, would keep such a valuable commodity where it could all be confisicated.
Be like keeping your stash of PM's in one neat little easy to find spot.
While one HOPES none of this would be needed, better to have, than not have. I have fgriends that own one pistol or shotgun, and have less than a 100rds for either, which IMHO, is why bother?.
Like you said, you have 200 million plus roaming the streets..thank you, the more of everything the merrier.
Meanwhile, foodstuff's, and water,medications,pain killers, extra prescrip drugs,FA kits,Medmanual,candles,matches,lamps,flashlights,batteries,TP,Fem hygene, assorted other items would be of more practical value, and should be laid in with gusto........extra for barter also, and ignorant neighbors, and relatives that showup.
A word to the wise, we have EO's & PDD's on the books, allowing for seizure of everything, your body,your food, your home,your families, and you have no guarantee you will be kept together, if the scenario is bad enough (this is IN the EO/PDD's, not a pipe dream),so do not assume you will be with your loved one's.
Also, better be damned smart and have more than one cache,plan,and bug out's lined out....if you hope ( in worst case scenario to remain together, and alive).
Plan for the worst, and Pray for the best................I'd rather have way too much, than too little.
Thank you for articulating my thought much more tactfully. +19 rnds. 7.62 NATO
Added cause it sums up the main reason I accumulate ammo:
Damn you're an idiot.
And they said we wouldn't have Nixon to kick around anymore . . .
But, do understand that Johnny Bravo is the only one I know of who has his own "personal troll".
And that gold thread I was in the other day, well, it seemed like the life of the party, JB himself, did not come. Seems like JB is popular after all! Livens up the party!
Still going to buy more gold though.
EDIT: Great job Gonzalo Lira! Estoy casado con una peruana, pero esos pallazos Generales en el Peru que pretienden ganar contra Chile son unos sonsos! El ejercito chileno puede conquistar hasta VENEZUELA, LOL!
Yeah, he's my own personal troll. I can degrade him if I want.
He follows me around like a lost teenage girl in love. I smack him like a two cent ho. ROFL...
There was a gold thread and I missed it? Well, let's fast forward to what would have been posted if I was there.
All the posters there:
If... if... if... but... but... but... what if... what if... and when all those things happen, gold to 54000!
Me: You guys are on crack, yo.
I condensed it into a few sentences. LOL
I would much rather prefer the real version of:
JB: No I never said gold would only hit $1220 I said, after if was almost at $1220, that it would hit $1230ish, but now that it went to $1240, and I'm always right, that I actually meant $1240 and I am still right because I predcited it and am never wrong because my TA is pulled from my ass and my ass never lies.
What, so I was wrong by twenty bucks?
Give me a break dude.
At least I generally can spot where the trends change. What do you do, except for nitpick me for a percent or two here and there?
And yeah, my TA is usually right.
Gold is about to roll over again as we speak. It won't even hit the old highs probably.
I like the repeated god your an idiot.
See how easy it is for t-shirts to become real.
Trust me on this one: if it comes to madmax, you won't be out shooting 10000 rounds a year, bud.
You'll be run out of your bunker, smoked out by me and the zombie hordes, and be packing at most one rifle and maybe 200 rounds. If you load yourself down with all that ammo, me and the hordes will quickly run you down.
See, there are going to be way more of the zombies than you. And the zombies will vote for politicians who promise to drive Abrams straight up your backside.
You're spot-on about medicine...infinitely more valuable than ammunition.
Hell, man, if it comes to this, just grow poppies and MJ like they do in Afghanistan. The local warlords are gonna make you do it anyhow.
How long do lone gun survivalist types last in the face of Mexican drug gangs. Sorry, the whole guns&ammo crowd hasn't actually done very much thinking.
MOBILITY is what matters in an apocalypse. So maybe me and the hordes see your little compound. Maybe you have a .338 Lapua and a few crazy friends and you have standoff capability. So, we just poison your damned farm. Spread the wrong shit all over you or blow up an industrial plant upwind or pour some nasty shit into the stream upriver or we just like light the whole motherfucking thing on fire.
Trust me, you're coming out and you're going to be running with what you can carry on your back. The Heat Rule is in full effect in such a situation.
Men of Harlech stop your dreaming,
Can't you see their spear points gleaming?
See their warrior pennants streaming,
To this battlefield.
Men of Harlech stand ye steady,
It cannot be ever said ye
For the battle were not ready,
Welshmen never yield.
From the hills rebounding,
Let this song be sounding,
Summon all at Cambria's call,
The mighty force surrounding.
Men of Harlech on to glory,
This will ever be your story,
Keep these burning words before ye,
Welshmen will not yield
I always knew you were the poetry and soft, feely type.
So endowed is this fellow named Johnny,
With a muscle grown big and quite brawny,
It isn't his brain,
Or his blue-purple vein,
But his tongue which he flaps til I'm yawny.
Estupendo! Que fantastico! Y perfecto tambien!
Or should I just say "+1220", which was Johnny's 'ultimate top' in gold --- "was" being the operative word, until he weaseled out of his "perfect prediction record" and decided to rewrite history once again. The truth is quite a well-worn palimpsest for the eternally creative (and dissembling) Johnny Bravo!
"You'll be run out of your bunker, smoked out by me and the zombie hordes"
Big brave talk!! What do you know about how posters on this board are organizing? What makes you think that the "hordes" will follow you?
Tough talking bullshitter!!
LOL at the posters on this board.
They couldn't defend a country buffet from old people.
I was a foreign volunteer (in 1991 and 1992) serving with the Croatian Army in their war for independence. One day we Croatian soldiers were in a convoy and we passed through the town of Gospic. We drove through block after block of burnt out houses - the entire area looked much like the pictures of Hiroshima or Nagasaki after the atomic bomb - nothing but charred ruins remained.
I asked a Croatian buddy sitting next to me, "What the Hell happened here?" He replied, "Was Serbian district."
Also in Gospic the convoy entered a military base where more than a dozen tanks were parked. At the onset of war Croatian militias captured it from the Yugoslav Army after intense fighting. The soldiers of the base (who were mostly Serbs) were so busy defending themselves that they were not able to come to the rescue of their fellow tribesmen just blocks away.
I hope to impress on Zero Hedge readers that even the presence of a Yugoslav military base with tanks just blocks away did not stop an unpleasant outcome for the Serbs of Gospic. They had to defend themselves with what they had in their own houses. I will now leave it to Zero Hedge readers to rethink their opinion of storing ammunition.
The link is to Wikipedia. I direct your attention to the population stats for Serbs in Gospic prior to 1991 and in 2001.
PS: Just prior to the outbreak of tribal warfare in Yugoslavia hyperinflation destroyed their economy.
PS: Just prior to the outbreak of tribal warfare in Yugoslavia hyperinflation destroyed their economy.
Spent time in Macedonia, and Albania. Spot on. might makes right. Stock up on everything and form a trusted group. when the gangs come for you and your shit all the medicine and food in the world wont save you. If your forced to run your probably allready dead, you just dont know it yet.
A lot of morons here in America are going to get a first class education in the reality of human nature when we see actual food shortages. My guess is no more than six years before this joke of an empire blows up in our face like an exploding cigar. FTW.
perhaps a better wikipedia link to illustrate your story
what does this mean, W I M P†
ja Sam za akciju ako Volis velike sise
it's croatian, ya know!
For most ammo isn't an asset, it's a tool. I know how much I use, how much I might use, and how much I'll need for X amount of time into the future. Choosing to not have enough on hand is essentially giving up and saying "well, shit, what happens happens, and I'm just going to watch".
Having a weapon and *some* ammo and not knowing how to shoot, or know if your weapon is working correctly, does you no good.
"Ammo is a tool, if everyone is shooting, sure it's great to have, but not so great as being nowhere in the area. "
Generally, people have nowhere to go if the balloon goes up, and even if they do, getting there is going to require a pretty large amount of ammo, assuming they can even find the gas to make the trip.
I know just how much ammo you can go through in a single day, shooting, and I know how much ammo you use carrying weapons day in and day out over a long period of time (you can't just carry the same shit forever). 10k rounds is not nearly as big a pile as you think it is, in terms of usage, size, or weight. 10k rounds will fit in a car or truck no problem.
Seizing ammo would set off a far larger shit-storm than FDR style gold seizures, but either can be hidden.
I don't need anything more than a .22 for shooting critters, and it's not like there are that many to shoot now. You're right, there will be none around then. History has demonstrated that here, no need to look to Haiti. But I'm not about to trust my home or my safety to anyone or anything else, and that means firearms (and ammo for them) in calibers that are effective weapons.
LOL - that was great.
IF I WERE TPTB then I would BLOCK the exits...you can bet your life that a 'treasury run defense plan' is sitting on a shelf at the Treasury Deptartment.
Worth a read in the context:
'Capitalists of chaos and catastrophe'
May as well get this out now, before the Mad Max crowd arrives
http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2010/08/what-kills-you-after-economic-collaps...Tuesday, August 24, 2010 What kills you after an Economic Collapse Even though by definition the ultimate objective is living, when we talk about urban survival we aspire to a minimum amount of freedom and dignity in our lives. Living as a prisoner, slave or in a cardboard box under a bridge and cleaning windshields for a living is still living, but alas, its certainly not the life quality we want. Its about maintaining the minimum standard of living we need so as to not go nuts. None the less, I though it would be interesting to notice what actually gets you killed after an economic collapse. I think it's an interesting exercise and it also helps reevaluate our priorities from a more realistic perspective. For this I used some statistics after the 2001 Argentine crisis. Its not an exact science, but it does put together an interesting picture. Rioting and social unrest: It may come as a surprise for some, but these are by far the ones that kills the less amount for people when these things happen. In our case it was 32 to 38 people across the entire country. About the same amount still dies per week in Buenos Aires suburbs alone during armed robberies and other crimes. Already in our first stop, we destroy a popular survivalist myth: When a country collapses, hordes will run wild burning every single building to the ground in every mayor city. The idea that bugging out should be some sort of standard procedure when there's social unrest is simply flawed. The preconceived notion that somehow made it from Hollywood to the real world, that the population can go down by significant amounts in a matter of days with millions dieing is not realistic at all. My dear friends, that only happens in fiction books and movies. It happens to be good entertainment but don't take it any other way. Hunger: As of Match 2010, 2.920 kids starve to death in Argentina per year. (source: http://www.elmundo.es/america/2010/03/28/argentina/1269793765.html) That's children alone and you could easily add another 50% for adults and seniors. Older people have it pretty tough here since most pensions and retirement programs (recently "nationalized") place the old folks BELOW the poverty line. This means, its not enough to even classify as poor. They can't buy the minimum calories required per day to survive and the medicine they often need. Lucky for the government, an old person dieing of malnutrition isn't as obvious or as unnerving as seeing a healthy little boy or girl become a bag of bones. Child in a Hospital in Tucuman, Argentina In average, at the very least 12 people die per day of hunger in Argentina. This of course doesn't take into account all the illneses that may caouse death because of a poor diet. In any case, food is of course of extreme importance and history keeps teaching us that storing 6-12 months of food is a life saver during catastrophic events such as an economic crisis, planned genocide (Irish Potato Famine) or civil wars that have long term duration (seriously consider going for 12 months) Crime: In the Bs As suburbs where I live, 4 to 8 persons are murdered every 24hs during robberies. Like with inflation, the government has its own twisted way of what is actually considered murdered, so I'll go with the private census and statistic companies which are more realistic. (source: http://www.diegopietrafesa.com.ar/mistextos_detalle.php?id=30) Poverty: Here's where it gets a bit more complicated to get hold of hard numbers. How does poverty kill you? The place where you can afford to live, how many police officers and patrol vehicles it has available per block, what kind of health services are available. Is it close to some of the polluted dumpsters and streams full of sewer water and chemicals the factories dump in them with no control whatsoever, causing cancer, genetic disorders, malformations and respiratory illnesses? Suffice to say, child mortality rate is twice as much depending if you live in the poor parts of town, compared to the ones that are better off. (source: http://edant.clarin.com/suplementos/zona/2008/02/10/z-03015.htm) Poverty deaths due to poor healthcare: According to UNICEF, 25 children under the age of 1 die per dau in Argentina of preventable causes such as poor treatment of illnesses that could have been cured, untreated infections, respiratory problems and low weight. If we substract the 8 kids that starve to death each day which we analized earlier, we realize that roughly 17 kids die per day simply because they can't afford better than free public health care. I pay dearly for my private health plan, but do so gladly knowing fully well what public hospitals have to offer. As a side note, this should be a good example of how well government owned pubic health works. Poverty deaths due to crime and location: Not all districts are the same. When you see the map of insecurity (these are only the crimes reported to this website http://www.mapadelainseguridad.com/) you see a clear difference between districts. Crime may be 10 times worse depending on if you live in a good or bad neighborhood. Car accidents: This is something that may surprise most readers and the cause is directly linked to the 2001 crisis, with fatality rates going up ever since. Lack of control of bus drivers (responsible for 38% of the accidents), corruption when getting the drivers license, lots of drunk driving (and no serious penalties for doing so) no traffic or vial education for children in schools (not enough money for that) roads and traffic lights in poor condition ( no money) a fleet of cars that is usually old and in poor mechanical condition because of the general poor population. To make matters worse, we have a liberal government that wont take away a persons license, even if they murder people when illegally street racing. The results? Traffic accidents kill more people than AIDS in Argentina, kills more people than cancer. Argentina has 300% more deaths due to traffic accidents per hundred thousand persons than USA or Europe. 25 persons die per day, 70% of the deaths are pedestrians. You'd do well to check and look all around you when crossing a street in Buenos Aires. Ignoring red lights and not caring about hitting people is pretty common around here. Its not as if you'd go to jail if you kill someone with your car. (http://www.oei.org.co/sii/entrega3/art01.htm) Stress and heart related problems: And we reach the number one cause of death, directly linked to the crisis. According to studies done by the Favaloro Foundation and the University of Massachusetts, from April 1999 and December 2002, there were 20.000 more deaths due to coronary illnesses than the previous averages. Stress kills, and no doubt it kills much more after an economic collapse. Note that survivalists rarely ever discuss this, how to avoid it. The lack of hope in the future, financial problems, unemployment, it all kills you slowly in its own way. (source: http://www.cronista.com/notas/186545-epidemia-estres-el-costo-oculto-la-crisis) How do you stop an Economic Crisis from killing you and your family? 1) Watch your back and look out for criminals. Avoid taking unnecessary risks going out late, going to the ATM when there's little people on the streets. 2) Careful when driving and pay particular attention when crossing the street. Even when on the sidewalk or the side of the road, listen to car engines rushing your way: You never know when a drunk driver will go up to the sidewalk, even crash into buildings and stores. I've seen it happen enough times. 3) Work our two or preferably three times a week. Have a hobby, learn to relax. Go camping, have fun within your means. At least an hour per day, you should do some activity that helps you unwind. Take care people. FerFAL
Gully, what was the middle part about?
Clearly it challenged your reading and comprehension skills.
Let me break it down, to something you might understand.
Bad thing happen, no money, boo boo kill people, don't drink and drive, tummy hurt no food.
Even that was most likely too complicated for you, so get your mommy to draw you a picture. And remember touching your nono place in public is frowned upon and scares the little girls going to school.
The point, which, as usual, went 10 miles over your head, can be summed up thusly:
A link, and optionally the last paragraph, would have more than sufficed.
Only half witty Gully.
who the fuck is junking Ferfal?
just hope you fucking morons never had to live through half what he's seen and survived.
Question: Does the populace of Argentina have over 600 million firearms and roughly 6-8 million combat veterans and even more seriously "leave me the hell alone" types in their stats? Just sayin'.
I would say that is a very legitimate question. Now go away and leave me alone! :)
God you're an idiot.
Well you should know.
It's easy to spot idiots. I do an exemplary job of it every time I come here.
Look in a mirror pal.
The courts, on finding your parents guilty of drunken negligence, should sentence them to 20 years.... 20 years of standing on street corners, advertising the benefits of permanent and irreversible contraceptive procedures.
Get new material. You are boring me.
Depression should take care of most of the combat vets.
You better hope that happens, but I'd put my money on the vets.
Ferfal has good observations that dispel a lot of redneck survivalist notions, but Argentina is not the States, and a localized crisis down in South America is not a general clusterfuck affecting a nation of 300 million stupid selfish bastards.
In any sort of fight I'd bet on our vets (with what they have at hand) over their active duty military any day of the week.
Aw...Gully! Why'd you have to go and ruin it for the Mad Max crowd? Ruin their survivalist wet dreams, just like the Y2K hoax.
Workout 2-3 times per week? Fat chance. The average American waistline for men is 39.7 inches. Too busy playing video games and watching the boob tube. The impotent always over-estimate how tough they are, and if their morbid fantasies do occur one fine day, 75% will shit their pants.
SUSAN: You know, I really like those new jeans Jerry was wearing. He's really thin.
GEORGE: Not as thin as you think.
SUSAN: Why? He's a 31. I saw the tag on the back.
GEORGE: The tag, huh?
SUSAN: Mmm-hmm.
GEORGE: Let me tell you something about that tag. It's no 31, and uh...let's just leave it at that.
SUSAN: What are you talking about?
GEORGE: He scratches off a 32 and he puts in 31.
SUSAN: Oh, how could he be so vain?
GEORGE: Well, this is the Jerry Seinfeld that only I know.
Thank you for the useful info, Gully. I was starting to think I was the only person on here who isn't a psychotic, paranoid asshole.
Wow, junk mail from the psychotic, paranoid asshole lobby.
I think it comes down to 'how angry are people?'
If they're not so angry, the depressing 'Blade Runner'-type landscape appears.
If they're angry enough, something else will happen. Maybe more like the end of the USSR?
Falling from our current society will shatter the minds of many. It will not be like the statistics you present. But by all means believe this crap, I for one will wait for the impoverished youth from poor areas already skilled in the gang mentality with mini arsenals purchased via drug proceeds to rape you repeatedly eating your cocoa pebbles.
The new currency, in the following order, will be coffee, cigarettes, and rum, whiskey, gin and beer, in that order.
....ammo...in easily, multinationally, denominated calibers....it is already happening....do your DD and you'll be shocked to find that the only thing in very short supply during our entire "recovery" has been ammo...in just about every caliber...from the popular ones to the exotic...from solid points to hydro shocks, from varmint grenades to....well, you get the picture...
How much is a box of .45 worth, 230gr FMJ? What, $25? Look at the weight of the thing. Compare it to just 2 oz of Ag.
Sure, ammo is a real asset and has real value, but it's not going to serve as currency.
If you get a drop in the supply of ammo due to economic collapse, what do you think this will do to the silver, gold, oil, wheat supplies?
Sure, you can trade ammo or guns or horses for other real things; it's always been that way. Ammo is not scarce even now...there's plenty of it out there at the right dollar price.
I agree with you about ammo not necessarily being an investment, and here's why: Everybody who wants it has 3 million rounds. If you lived in Serbia, and were a peasant farmer, you were probably lucky to have a full box. Twenty rounds doesn't last long when you are trying to eat, scare people off, and maybe actually have to shoot somebody.
Here, a bunch of computer heroes are sitting around having conversations about thousands and thousands. (I include myself here, see above post)
God you're an idiot.
Ah, the true colors of Johnny Bravo.
I like this a lot better. You can stick around if that's all you post. Much better than your usual drivel.
I'm sorry, all I heard from you was "blah blah blah, I'm a fucking idiot that pays 8% more than the selling price for assets, I like dropping the soap for big men in prison showers... blah blah blah."


text:
MYRRDIN_MOVIE_PROJECT_VI by donmaloWatch
©2013-2016 donmalo
More concept art for the Myrrdin movie project.
I ADORE those ghosts! Very unique design.
Those better be magic swords those guys have, or they won't be much help against ghosts!
Awesome work on this!
fantastic work!
Brilliant mood..like always man!!!
This movie wouldn't be based off of the books by Stephen R. Lawhead, would they?
Not really - those are based on real mythologies - just with a cinematic twist (not like King Arthur, etc.!)
Dang. Those are quite possibly my favorite books. Can't wait to see this movie though, looks great
sweet reminds me of Game of Thrones
Reminds me a little of Guild Wars, if you ever play it
Awesome pic
These spirits looks truly Fantastic!!
Looks very interesting. I like the way you made these ghost like figures, they feel very believable yet otherworldly.
Thanks a ton, Suzanne! Much much appreciated coming from you!
Good luck for your artbook
Good luck for your artbook
the fog looks awesome. it somehow reminds me of the beginning of game of thrones

subset: commoncrawl


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text:
Dear Sarah,
I was raised in a family with two dedicated parents who both worked full-time. My mother was the more ambitious professionally, while my father assumed more than the traditional share of home duties. Growing up, I never questioned that I would pursue a professional career. I am now, at 31, a corporate lawyer.
A first time mother, I have been on maternity leave since my daughter was born, with the intention of returning to work. Rightly or wrongly, I always felt that being a housewife would be taking the easy option. I believed that I would feel guilty if I didn't return to work.
My mother-in-law, on the other hand, is a devoted mother of four who worked occasionally from home teaching piano to help pay the bills. She never left any of her children in childcare. She cannot understand how I could consider leaving my baby with a stranger (all our family live abroad). After speaking to her at length, I feel very guilty about returning to work.
I don't know what to do now – this new and unexpected sense of guilt has flipped my world on its head. Lisa
Dear Lisa,
You mention "guilt" three times in your letter. Guilt is one of those things that seems to arrive with motherhood along with tiredness, jelly belly, stained clothes and everyone else's unsolicited advice. It is that little voice inside a mother's head that questions whether she is doing the best for her children, and that so often concludes that she could be doing better.
I am a new mother, too, and after speaking to numerous others, I've come to the conclusion that we can't escape the guilt. It will come and go for as long as we are parents. But I do believe that we can reduce it, and even make it work for us. How? By listening to it, and then using it as a prompt to question our choices.
In this instance, you feel guilty because you are not 100 per cent convinced by your decision to return to work. Your conversation with your mother-in-law has raised doubts in your mind, and now you are feeling confused. So what can you do? I would recommend taking some time to sit down with your husband and work out what you think and feel about going back to work – not what society thinks, not what your mother-in-law thinks, not what you think you should think but what you really think inside. Then see if you can make a decision together that works for the two of you and your daughter.
Look back at your own childhoods. What do you feel were the advantages and disadvantages of both of your mothers' choices? What were the good things that you would like to replicate, and what things would you rather avoid? Often we can look back at our own experiences as "normal". But sometimes it is no bad thing to acknowledge that "normal" is subjective, to challenge our preconceived ideas and to realise that there are other ways of parenting that could work just as well or better.
You mentioned that you felt being a "housewife" was an easy option. I am wondering if you are still feeling that, having looked after your baby in recent months? If you talk to other mothers who have chosen not to return to their jobs, as well as to those who work part- or full-time, you will probably realise that none of the options is easy. They just have different challenges.
Your challenge, if you go back to work full-time, will be to find the right kind of childcare to help your daughter flourish and feel secure. Who will the "stranger" be that will look after her, and how will you find a person or a nursery that you trust? How will leaving her with them work in practice? I imagine that, being a corporate lawyer, you will have to work long hours and even longer ones when you have a deal on. You don't mention if your husband's job is more flexible. But if it isn't, have you thought about who'll be the one to rush home if there is a problem, or who'll give her a bath and tuck her in at night?
Once you have thought through all the practicalities, looked at your financial situation, and weighed up the advantages and disadvantages, you'll be able to make your decision together. Be prepared to review it several months in, and if it isn't working for you or your daughter then try something different. Keep going until you find the best solution for all of you. If and when the guilt comes, remember that you will never be a perfect parent, because no one is. But you can be a good enough one, and that is OK.
* 'Authentic: Relationships From the Inside Out' by Sarah Abell (Hodder & Stoughton) is available from Telegraph Books for £10.99 plus £1.25 p&p. To order a copy, please call 0844 871515 or visit www.books.telegraph.co.uk.
* Each week, I will be answering your questions on relationship and emotional issues in the newspaper, and extra questions online. I will also be posting on comments submitted by other readers. Feel free to contribute to the debate on any of the topics covered in the column.
* Please send your questions on relationship and emotional problems to Sarah Abell, The Daily Telegraph, 111 Buckingham Palace Road, London, SW1W 0DT or email firstname.lastname@example.com. Please indicate if there are any details you would NOT want included in print. Sarah will read every letter but regrets that she cannot reply to them individually.


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Nathaniel's Thanks, Given.
The world is a tough place and the movies are our collective great escape. For your host here at TFE there's an awful lot to be thankful for. So as I prepare to stuff my face tomorrow with my best friends I will be especially thankful...
For the orange tabby in Gone Girl
For Julianne Moore getting her groove back on yoga mats and at beach houses
For Ava DuVernay and Jennifer Kent's vivid reminders that women can and do direct movies and we need those fresh voices.
For David Fincher's consistency at turning mainstream audiences on while never pandering
For Shia Labeouf because every film decade needs its defining crazy
For the blooming of Keira Knightley, from an always memorable but uneven actress, to a completely confident movie star, relaxed, nuanced and magnetic in two fine performances
For that shot of the paratroopers in Godzilla
For Finn Wittrock's arrival, sympathetic (Masters of Sex) then terrorizing (Freakshow) outcast beauty
For every single march scene in Selma
For "the world is round, people!"
For Melanie Lynskey onscreen (Instant-watch Happy Christmas now - it's delightful!) and off
For memorable physicality: Chastain's scolding fingers, Krysten Ritter's Big (Side)Eyes, Luke Pasqualino's battering-ram run, Ralph Fiennes cartoon dashes, and Billy Magnussen's horseback riding (or, rather, his mounting and dismounting)
For the single best crop of LGBT films in one calendar year that we've had in ages and ages (Love is Strange, Pride, The Way He Looks, Stranger by the Lake, The Circle, and so on)
For everything that happens in the elevator in Captain America: Winter Soldier
For "Bob's Burgers"... particularly Tina Belcher. I'm late to the party but that show makes me laugh harder than any show since 30 Rock.
For Jonathan Glazer's return to the movie camera after 10 long years away - his gaze still deliciously alien
For that pop-up Babadook book I just ordered (my advanced thanks)
For the singing voices of almost the full cast of Into the Woods - but especially Streep & Kendrick
For a film year so good I'm already struggling (before screenings are even complete) with too many options for the Film Bitch Awards rosters. I could go on and on... but...
Finally, I'm hugely thankful to my Film Experience team (who delight me so frequently) and to all of you, the readers. Especially if you donate monthly, visit frequently, share articles, and otherwise really engage with what we do here. You help keep the fires burning as we try year in and year out -- against bigger odds than you'd think -- to approach each film year and awards season from lightly different angles than you'll see elsewhere and with more genuine all-eras all-genres movie love.
Abundance to you all! xoxo,
P.S. What are you thankful for this holiday weekend? Onscreen and off.


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A new position paper from the Agriculture Transport Coalition lays out options such as delaying enforcement of the SOLAS verified gross mass requirement or allowing weight variance, and requests a congressional inquiry into the IMO.
The less-than-truckload rivals are involved in a legal dispute over the hiring practices of YRC, which allegedly lured away two high-level XPO executives who were contractually bound not to work for a close competitor or divulge proprietary information.
The Northern California port says cargo business from Outer Harbor Terminal LLC, a joint venture between Ports America and TIL, will be transferred to other terminals and night and weekend truck gates will be offered to help in the transition.
Registration takes less than 1 minute.
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey has asked that trucks not be sent to terminals after dockworkers reportedly walked off the job Friday morning.
The United States Chamber of Commerce says the next item on the nation's trade agenda should be a bilateral free trade agreement with Brazil.
The 25-member crew of the Safmarine Kuramo are reported to be safe after the vessel was boarded by armed hijackers off the coast of Nigeria Friday night.


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The Marion County Fiscal Court is scheduled to meet in regular session at 4 p.m. Thursday, July 19, at the David R. Hourigan Government Building.
The agenda for the meeting includes the following:
- Minutes of the July 5 meeting
- Presentation on employee disability insurance coverage (AFLAC)
- Detention center policy revisions
- Copier purchase proposal
- Request from Marion County Historical Society for seating removal and storage
- Second reading of the Maker's Mark bond ordinance
A Russell Springs man is OK after the tractor-trailer he was driving turned over at 4:40 p.m. Tuesday near 1920 Liberty Road (Hwy. 49). Anthony C. Byrd, 41, was driving south July 17 in a 2000 Kenworth pulling a flatbed trailer loaded with wood when the accident happened, according to Marion County Sheriff Jimmy Clements.
The truck got off the edge of the roadway and the load shifted, causing the truck and trailer to turn over, Clements said.
No other vehicles were involved and Byrd was not injured, Clements said. Byrd was driving for Lee Transport of Dunnville.
The Biggest Loser Resort is not your typical resort.
Very little relaxing takes place there, but there's lots of exercising, learning and, surprisingly, eating - all healthy cuisine, of course.
Lebanon native Rebecca Peers Schmidt, 35, spent a week at The Biggest Loser Resort Fitness Ridge in Malibu, Calif., in June and, while it was exhausting, she said she would go back in a heartbeat.
Lebanon Water Works is consolidating and refinancing loans of more than $4.5 million.
On July 9, the Lebanon City Council unanimously authorized the Lebanon Water Company to consolidate and refinance a pair of loans. Councilwoman Denise Fogle served as mayor pro tem during the meeting as Mayor Gary Crenshaw was not present.
The Gingerbread Tree closed July 6, but that closure is temporary, according to officials with Central Kentucky Community Action.
Pam Smith, the director of Central Kentucky Community Action Head Start, said they hope to reopen the center within the next three weeks as the Central Kentucky Early Learning Academy. She said they are in the process of repainting the facility and hiring staff.
"We are working very diligently," Smith said, later adding, "We're looking to open up as soon as we can."
After completing a flight Saturday afternoon, 9-year-old Josh Saddler of Troy, Ohio, pushed his plane, a Boomerang Sprint, back to a tent at the Lebanon-Springfield Airport.
"It was exciting," he said. "I was a little nervous."
Saddler is already looking forward to coming back to Jets Over Kentucky, which is now the world's largest remote control jet show, as are most of the 156 pilots who attended this year's event from July 8-14 at the airport.
Amber Ervin was recently hired as the new director of special education and preschool for the Marion County school district.
Marion County Superintendent Dr. Chuck Hamilton made the official announcement at last week's school board meeting.
"We are pleased to have found leadership from within the system to fill such an important role for our students' continued successes," Hamilton wrote on the school district's web site.
The girls 9- and 10-year-old Marion County All-Star team made history last week by becoming the first local All-Star softball team to win the state championship. A celebratory parade for the team will be held at 6 p.m., July 19. The parade will begin at Marion County High School and end at Lebanon Elementary School.
Read more about the team's win in this week's sports section.
The Lebanon Tourist and Convention Commission receives a monthly report showing which businesses have - and have not - turned in the restaurant taxes they have collected. The commission took a closer look at the tax collection process during its July 9 meeting.
Lori Boone, the Lebanon tax administrator, spoke with the commissioners and answered questions about the tax collection process, with a focus on delinquent taxes.
It's no secret that Americans are getting bigger and not in a good way.
Among Kentucky residents, 33 percent of children, 60 percent of women and 80 percent of men are considered overweight or obese, according to recent studies by the Centers for Disease Control.
The good news is that Marion County has resources for anyone who wants to become healthier.
Copyright © 2016
The Lebanon Enterprise is your source for local news, sports, events, and information in Marion County and Lebanon, KY, and the surrounding area.


text:
- 25Promote
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You stand alone in my comments section Bruce. Love that. Thank you!
Awwwwww LoL!
Giggling ~ thank you skye!
very cute
Thank you catspaws!
Soooo adorable!
THANK YOU very much KunstFabrik_StaticMovement Man!
So cute!
Thanks again missema ~ so nice of you!
Haha hilarious
Now you made me laugh Timothy! THANKS so much for stopping in ~
To cute : )
Thank you Kim!
so cute!
Thank you again Garima!
Oh Yeah! ✯ ✯ ✯ ✯ ✯ 👍
Wayne-induced smiling! Lucky me! Thank YOU!
Very beautiful
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