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Preparing for Job Interviews: A Career Thinker workshop with Tom Powner
Program Locations:
The more you prepare the less intimidating they become
Increase your chances of hearing the words "You're Hired" by knowing how to prepare for an interview. Too many job seekers don't place enough importance and time in preparing for an interview; a sure way to outshine the other candidates is by being more prepared than they are.
- Your attire
- Body language & Posture
- Types of Interviews
- The job application
- CAR Stories
- The W questions
- Know your resume
- Know the company
- What should you ask at the end of the interview
Tom Powner will be presenting this workshop/seminar. Tom is a CPRW, CEIP & CCMC.
CPRW – Certified Professional Resume Writer
CEIP – Certified Employment Interview Professional
CCMC - Certified Career Management Coach
He is also a member of the Professional Association of Resume Writers and Career Coaches (PARW/CC) and National Association of Resume Writers (NRWA) and the Career Experts. He donates his time and expertise in presenting a series of career/job growth workshops as part of his own volunteer and pay-it-forward mission to assist and guide those engaged in or getting prepared for a job/career search campaign.
Space is limited; please visit the link below to register for this this free seminar/workshop
More Info
- Audience: Job Seekers
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Filming The Moments That Count
Since 2002, Taylor Films has proudly provided an alternative to the generic wedding and corporate event video industry in San Diego. When you hire us, you'll get a video that is unique to the special personality of your wedding or business. We'll even travel worldwide based on your event location. Here's a look at some popular wedding venues where we've filmed:
- The Grand Del Mar
- The Hotel Del Coronado
- The Lodge at Torrey Pines
- Scripps Seaside Forum
- Estancia La Jolla
- Park Hyatt Aviara
- Omni La Costa Resort & Spa
- Hilton Bay Front
- Manchester Grand Hyatt
- The Prado
- Rancho Valencia
- La Valencia
- Rancho Bernardo Inn
- Hyatt Aventine
- Ponte Winery in Temecula
- South Coast Winery in Temecula
- The Grand Tradition Fallbrook
- Leo Carillo Ranch
- Temecula Creek Inn
- Hilton La Joya Torrey Pines
- Villa Sevillano
- Los Willows Fallbrook
- Hilton San Diego Resort & Spa
- Paradise Point
- Fairbanks Ranch Country Club
- The Crossings Carlsbad
- Loews Coronado Bay Resort
- Coronado Island Marriott
- Twin Oaks Garden Estate
- L'Auberge Del Mar
- La Jolla Womans Club
- San Diego Museum of Art
- Mt. Woodson Castle
- Darlington House
- The Ranch at Bandy Canyon
- The US Grant
- Ultimate Skybox
- Westgate
- The Catamaran Resort Hotel & Spa
- Montage Laguna Beach
- Ritz Carlton Laguna Niguel
- Pelican Hill
TAYLOR FILMS also specializes in corporate work, including music videos, infomercials, and training videos. If you're interested in our style and would like to make an appointment, please call us at 760-846-0418, or fill out the form below.

subset: commoncrawl


text: New stories Upcoming Incoming 20° The Top Ten Star Wars Games Of All Time - The News Hub 46m ago - The News Hub writes: We're less than one month away from the first screenings of Star Wars Episod... | PC Comments (0) Source 40° Xbox 360 10th Anniversary: The Innovations, Challenges and Games That Changed An Industry 49m ago - It might not seem possible but Xbox 360 is 10 years old. Microsoft's second home console ushered... | Xbox 360 Comments (1) Source Ad Blu-ray And DVD Highlights for November 2015 Now - With the spooky month of October all but ritualistically murdered and buried in a haunted house sitting a top an ancient Indian burial ground under... | Promoted post Read More SiteBot 70° 9 Anticipated Games That Could Get World Premieres at The Game Awards 1h ago - The Game Awards are going to have 10 world premieres. Here are some of the games we could see mor... | PC Comments (2) Source 20° Wasteland Diaries: Episode 2 1h ago - Stu at Sushimonster85 writes 'We return with episode two of Wasteland Diaries, out Fallout 4 dedi... | PC Comments (0) Source 20° Retroholics Anonymous Ep 7 - Vulgarity In Gaming 1h ago - In this episode of Retroholics Anonymous the Retroholics discuss the controversial topic of vulga... | Retro Comments (0) Source


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Plants vs. Zombies 2 is the sequel to PopCap's hit action-strategy, tower-defense mobile game in which you are tasked with defeating legions of zombies from the dawn of time to the end of days. Working with Crazy Dave, you amass an army of powerful new plants, super charge them with Plant Food and power up your defenses with new ways to protect your brain.
The Elusive Yeti Zombie
While playing Plants vs. Zombies 2, you'll sometimes be notified that a yeti has been spotted. Yeti spottings are "exceptionally rare," but when you do get the notification hurry to that level without delay.
The Yeti will wander onto the board at some point during the level, but he won't stay long. Unlike other zombies, he won't simply continue on the course from right to left; his motivations are a great mystery and you only have a brief time in which to attack him, so make the most of it.
Plant Food or Power Ups may help you before he disappears. If successfully destroyed before disappearing, you'll be rewarded with treasure; the Yeti is a fantastic source for getting more coins. You only get one chance to defeat the Yeti per sighting, so if he wanders off the board unharmed, he won't return again when you replay the level.
Related Posts
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PLU Credit Information for Alabama Applicants
"Bullying Intervention Leadership Development (BUILD) through Sustained School-Community Collaboration"
PLUACLD332, Provider–Truman Pierce Institute (AU)
This PLU meets Leadership Standard 5, "Community and Stakeholder Relationships."
Leaders enrolled in this PLU will:
- Analyze bullying incidence in their school(s) and community
- Identify effects of bullying on students' social interactions, emotional health, attendance, and academic success
- Develop and implement effective anti-bullying strategies utilizing community resources.
In addition to attending the Anti-Bullying Summit in Peachtree City, GA, June 18-19, participants will lead a faculty/staff meeting during which Alabama state law and school system policies pertaining to bullying are reviewed; collect data from two bullying surveys (Fall 2015 and Spring 2016) to assess incidence of bullying and effects of intervention initiatives in their schools; organize and guide faculty/parent/student/community leader meetings during which bullying problems are analyzed and strategies for intervention are developed; plan and implement two school-wide assemblies addressing the issue of bullying; and complete short reading assignments from on-line sources (no materials need to be purchased).
A description of each activity is available by clicking here.
A detailed summary of each activity is also available at http://www.leadershipalsde.com by clicking on "Search", then searching for course number 332, then clicking on "View application," then clicking on "View" for each of the eight activities.
Summit attendees interested in earning this PLU must officially enroll on the STI website, https://pdweb.alsde.edu for PLUACLD332; registration for the Anti-Bullying Summit does not register you for the PLU. However, there is NO ADDITIONAL FEE for registering for the PLU. If you do not have access to registering yourself on the STI website, the person responsible for professional development in your school system can assist you.
Should you need additional information about PLUACLD332, contact Linda Dean at email@example.com or 334-844-4105.
Last Updated: February 10, 2015


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WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. -- Greg Oden didn't dominate the stat sheet, but his imprint was all over Ohio State's sixth straight win.
The 7-foot center had just nine points, six rebounds and two blocks in No. 4 Ohio State's 78-60 win over Purdue on Wednesday night, but he found other ways to control the game.
Oden's defensive presence forced Purdue's leading scorer, Carl Landry, out of his comfort zone. Landry, a 6-7 power forward, scored 16 points, but he shot mostly jumpers and was only 6-for-17 from the field.
When the Buckeyes had the ball, Purdue paid so much attention to Oden that the Boilermakers left Ohio State's perimeter shooters open. The Buckeyes made 8-of-18 3-pointers.
"These guys are getting looks off of Greg Oden getting the ball, or they're beating us off the dribble off of Greg Oden getting the ball, and that leads to baskets," Purdue coach Matt Painter said. "That kind of stuff doesn't show up in a box score. And not just blocking shots but altering shots, that doesn't show up in a box score.
"That's why I've said from day one he's the best player in college basketball. Because you have to do so many things to really hold him down to stop his total affect on the game," Painter said.
Mike Conley scored 18 points, Jamar Butler scored 16 and Daequan Cook had 12 points and 10 rebounds for the Buckeyes (19-3, 7-1 Big Ten).
The Buckeyes shot 53 percent from the field and outrebounded the Boilermakers 38-29.
Ohio State has won six in a row in the series and 12 of the past 13 meetings.
Purdue (14-8, 3-5) shot just 38 percent in its first home loss of the season.
Ohio State coach Thad Matta said he was concerned about slowing Landry, who was averaging 19 points per game.
"As good as he is, it is hard," Matta said. "He does have that ability to shoot it, he's a load down low, he's got good post moves and they do a good job of getting him the basketball. I thought a couple of those other ones were going in. I was impressed."
Ohio State led 33-31 at halftime and opened the second half on an 8-3 run, highlighted by two hook shots by Oden over Landry.
Landry drew Oden's third foul on a drive with 15:54 left and Ohio State leading 43-36. The Buckeyes extended their lead to 50-40 before Purdue went on a 5-0 run that brought Oden off the bench. The inspired Buckeyes went on an 8-0 run that included 3-pointers by Conley and Butler to take a 58-45 lead with 8:53 to go.
Purdue tried to make a late push. The Boilermakers trailed 62-51 when Landry went in for a layup. Oden slammed the ball against the glass, and then Butler made one of his four 3-pointers at the other end to give the Buckeyes a 14-point lead with six minutes left.
"That was a momentum-changer," Conley said. "That could have been the game. They had some momentum coming, they hit a couple of layups and had gotten a couple of baskets. That block he made just shifted the game. When we got down to our end of the court and got our open three, that was definitely a big play."
Ohio State led 28-19 in the first half, but Purdue closed the half on a 12-5 run to trim the Buckeyes' lead to 33-31 at the break. Matta didn't have much to say at halftime.
"There weren't a lot of adjustments," he said. "We just had to play better basketball."
As dominant as Oden was, he played just 21 minutes because of foul trouble. Painter said the Boilermakers should have made a push with Oden on the bench.
"It was set up for us to have some success with him on the bench half the game," Painter said. "I thought it was set up for us the way the game went with us having a chance to beat them, and we just didn't make enough shots."


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20% Off "Hourly" Service Booked on Mondays in November
10 booking limit – 1 use per client/home – can't be combined with another offer or discount – Offer valid on Monday only.
Enter Code: MADMONDAY when booking online
Making your Life a Little Easier
Maid Here provides a marketplace to find cleaning specialists across Canada in 60 seconds.
Quality Control
Easy Online Reservation
Secure SSL Payment
Insured Cleaning Specialists
she was not speaking , not complaining; but just working hard from 9 to 4 pm…A. Merouani
Every time I have requested service, I received a hundred percent result…K. Kemeny
The online booking was simple and the cleaning was great.C. Marfoglia
Residential cleaning in Montreal. Tech-savvy cleaning business with online booking and friendly staff. Servicing NDG, Westmount, Downtown, Old Montreal, Plateau, Village, Cote-St-Luc, Little Italy, Cotes-des-Neiges, Mount Royal. Other serviceable zones include the West Island, Laval, St-Lambert, Brossard, Hochelaga, and more.
Window cleaning, office cleaning, commercial cleaning, student residence cleaning, and much more.
Residential cleaning services, home cleaning services, Montreal cleaning service, maid service, Montreal maid service, Montreal home cleaning service, home cleaning Montreal, cleaner for my home, housekeeper Montreal, housekeeper.


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First Known Use: 1601
adjective cur·so·ry \ˈkərs-rē, ˈkər-sə-\
: done or made quickly
Full Definition of CURSORY
: rapidly and often superficially performed or produced : hasty <a cursory glance>
— cur·so·ri·ly \-rə-lē\ adverb
— cur·so·ri·ness \-rē-nəs\ noun
See cursory defined for English-language learners
See cursory defined for kids
Examples of CURSORY
- Only a cursory inspection of the building's electrical wiring was done.
- The mayor gave a cursory glance at the report.
- Even the most cursory look at the organization's records shows problems.
Origin of CURSORY
Late Latin cursorius of running, from Latin currere
Related to CURSORY
- Synonyms
- hasty, drive-by, flying, gadarene, headlong, helter-skelter, hurried, overhasty, pell-mell, precipitate, precipitous, rash, rushed
- Antonyms
- deliberate, unhurried, unrushed
Synonym Discussion of CURSORY
superficial, shallow, cursory mean lacking in depth or solidity. superficial implies a concern only with surface aspects or obvious features <a superficial analysis of the problem>. shallow is more generally derogatory in implying lack of depth in knowledge, reasoning, emotions, or character <a light, shallow, and frivolous review>. cursory suggests a lack of thoroughness or a neglect of details <gave the letter only a cursory reading>.
CURSORY Defined for Kids
adjective cur·so·ry \ˈkərs-rē, ˈkər-sə-rē\
Definition of CURSORY for Kids
: done or made quickly <a cursory reply>
Learn More About CURSORY
Seen & Heard
What made you want to look up cursory? Please tell us where you read or heard it (including the quote, if possible).


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Enjoy the distinctive styling of All Sales, one of the best in automotive accessories for cars and trucks. The elegant appearance of their exterior and interior billet accessories are unrivaled in excellence compared to other. Performance and style are just arms away with All Sales.
All Makes | All Brands | Sitemap | Product Categories


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AHS Ladycats vs. Springtown at Aledo;
Varsity, 6:30 p.m.
JV, 5 p.m.
9th, 5 p.m.
WEATHERFORD, TX (April 20, 2011) --- Weatherford Regional Medical Center is working collaboratively with the County of Palo Pinto and several emergency relief organizations to provide aid for residents who have lost their homes and firefighters who continue to battle the nearby wildfires. Weatherford Regional continues to donate various medical and emergency supplies to assist families who have lost their homes and service personnel who are still battling the flames. Additionally, Weatherford Regional is collecting items on the campus of the hospital and at two clinic locations to be distributed to those in need:
Weatherford Regional Medical Center
713 East Anderson Street, 817-341-2273
Accepting items: 8 a.m. – 8 p.m. Monday-Friday
Lone Star Medical Plaza, Express Care
5700 East I-20, Service Road South, Willow Park, TX 817-489-7400
Accepting items: 8 a.m. – 8 p.m. Monday-Friday & until 6 p.m. Saturday.
Santo Primary Care
13965 South FM 4, Santo, TX, 940-769-2303
Accepting items: 8 a.m. - 4:30 p.m. Monday-Thursday and
Friday until 12 p.m.
"This is our way of helping to provide for the immediate needs of those displaced and for the servicemen and women who are still fighting the blaze" said Cory Countryman, CEO of Weatherford Regional Medical Center. "It is our desire to serve the community in an immediate and effective way." Countryman said they are primarily collecting food, water, clothes, gloves, blankets, towels, soap, shampoo, wet wipes and hand sanitizer.
AHS Ladycats vs. Springtown at Aledo;
Varsity, 6:30 p.m.
JV, 5 p.m.
9th, 5 p.m.


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|Ranunculaceae (ra-nun-kew-LAY-see-ee) (Info)
|Clematis (KLEM-uh-tiss) (Info)
|Summer Snow
|Additional cultivar information:
|(aka Paul Farges, Fargesioides)
|by Beskaravainaja
|Registered or introduced:
|Clematis fargesioides
Late Mixed
12-15 ft. (3.6-4.7 m)
15-20 ft. (4.7-6 m)
8-10 ft. (2.4-3 m)
USDA Zone 3a: to -39.9 �C (-40 �F)
USDA Zone 3b: to -37.2 �C (-35 �F)
USDA Zone 4a: to -34.4 �C (-30 �F)
USDA Zone 4b: to -31.6 �C (-25 �F)
USDA Zone 5a: to -28.8 �C (-20 �F)
USDA Zone 5b: to -26.1 �C (-15 �F)
USDA Zone 6a: to -23.3 �C (-10 �F)
USDA Zone 6b: to -20.5 �C (-5 �F)
USDA Zone 7a: to -17.7 �C (0 �F)
USDA Zone 7b: to -14.9 �C (5 �F)
USDA Zone 8a: to -12.2 �C (10 �F)
USDA Zone 8b: to -9.4 �C (15 �F)
USDA Zone 9a: to -6.6 �C (20 �F)
USDA Zone 9b: to -3.8 �C (25 �F)
White/Near White
No fragrance
Small - less than 2 inches (5 cm)
Mid Summer
Late Summer/Early Fall
Full Sun
Sun to Partial Shade
All parts of plant are poisonous if ingested
Handling plant may cause skin irritation or allergic reaction
Group 3 - Summer/Fall bloomers; prune hard in early spring
N/A: plant does not set seed, flowers are sterile, or plants will not come true from seed
This plant is attractive to bees, butterflies and/or birds
Average Water Needs; Water regularly; do not overwater
This plant has been said to grow in the following regions:
South Amana, Iowa
Page, North Dakota
Lake Stevens, Washington
On Aug 16, 2014, coriaceous from ROSLINDALE, MA wrote:
A hybrid between C. vitalba and C. fargesii (now usually called C. potaninii var. fargesii), combining the best of both---the lightness of growth and lovely flowering habit of the latter with the hardiness, vigor, and free flowering of the former without its smothering density and bulk.
On Feb 27, 2013, Pistil from Lake Stevens, WA (Zone 8a) wrote:
vigorous, seems drought tolerant. I have it planted on the south side of a 6 foot fence in crummy unimproved clay on a slope. Grows up rapidly into the sun. Pruning group 3.
On Sep 25, 2006, mystic from Ewing, KY (Zone 6a) wrote:
Received The Royal Horticultural Society, Award of Garden Merit (AGM) in 2002.


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JPMorgan Chase investing in Detroit's community
The General Motors (GM) world headquarters is seen February 24, 2013 in Detroit, Michigan. The city of Detroit has faced serious economic challenges in the past decade, with a shrinking population and tax base while trying to maintain essential services. JPMorgan announced it will direct $100 million in investments at Detroit for homes, businesses and job training.
JP Morgan Chase's $100 million dollar pledge to invest in the Detroit community follows a $15 million investment by Goldman Sachs late last year.
Robin Boyle, a professor of urban studies and planning at Wayne State University, says the investments don't necessarily signal that Detroit is the new darling of Wall Street, but the funds could help the bankrupt city focus on the future, while city managers grapple with billion dollars of debts.


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Welcome to Rona Fisher! Login or Register
You have no items in your shopping cart.
Express Your Unique Love.
Using your diamonds to create something special.
Sparkles Like the Sun on Rushing Water.
Using ancient and modern techniques to create unique jewelry
"I am enjoying my beautiful ring! It makes me smile every time I look at it. I can feel the good energy you give off in the jewelry you design and make."
My ring came this morning and it's GORGEOUS!!! Thank you so much..!
"Just letting you all know I love my necklace and have gotten many lovely comments....thanx for always being there"..love, Deb
"Thank you for helping me to make some wonderful choices. The opal pendant is absolutely gorgeous and I know that I am going to enjoy wearing it frequently. Your designs and craftsmanship are so beautiful..."


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kulula Airlines selects the OpenJaw t-Retail Platform to advance retailing strategy PHOCUSWRIGHT CONFERENCE 2012 Business Wire SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- November 13, 2012 OpenJaw Technologies, a leading online technology partner of the world's biggest travel brands, today announced that South African airline, kulula.com, has selected the OpenJaw t-Retail Platform to power its online retailing strategy. The airline's website, kulula.com, is the largest online travel retailer in South Africa. It uses the t-Retail Platform to inspire its customers and sell a variety of high value ancillaries, such as hotel, car and vacation packages to its loyal passengers. As a result, kulula now avails of a full range of retailing strategies that add value and drive revenue. kulula's quirky brand (Photo: Business Wire) kulula's quirky brand (Photo: Business Wire) The t-Retail Platform enables kulula customers to enjoy an engaging shopping experience, whereby they can browse a compelling collection of travel products and seamlessly book in a single check out. A number of effective retailing strategies ensure that the airline maximises the value of the shopping cart, such as the powerful Combine and Save strategy. Now customers can create their own unique vacation packages or "combos" of flights plus accommodation and car rental. Customers can immediately see how much they have saved than if they had separately booked each trip component. "With most people visiting kulula.com to purchase air tickets, we saw a significant opportunity to increase revenues and sales volumes by offering more products, and employing proper retailing techniques," said Iain Meaker, Executive - Travel & Distribution at kulula.com. "Given OpenJaw's commitment to travel retailing and the robust capabilities of the t-Retail Platform, OpenJaw was the obvious technology partner to power our retailing strategy." "From a website that is the largest online retailer in South Africa, to a fun and avant garde brand that carves a differentiated position in the market, kulula is one of the world leaders when it comes to travel retailing," said Kieron Branagan, CEO, OpenJaw Technologies. "We are delighted to help continue to grow their strategy with the t-Retail Platform." OpenJaw provides kulula.com with the t-Retail Platform as a Managed Service. On-going service success is monitored and evaluated by OpenJaw's Managed Services Business Division to ensure optimal conversion rates. The service is now live at www.kulula.com. About OpenJaw OpenJaw Technologies is a leading online technology partner of the world's biggest travel brands, including: British Airways, S7, Etihad, kulula, Air Miles, Aeroplan and SAS. OpenJaw's t-Retailing concept has been developed on the back of OpenJaw's long history in delivering online travel technology solutions to airlines, OTAs, loyalty programmes and hotel groups. Based on the principles of Inspiration, Personalisation, Differentiation and Conversion, it outlines a blueprint for travel retailing success. The t-Retail Platform is a complete platform for the online retailing of travel products from air, car, hotel, and activities to insurance, transfers and other ancillaries. Photos/Multimedia Gallery Available: http://www.businesswire.com/multimedia/home/20121113005244/en/ Multimedia Available:http://www.businesswire.com/cgi-bin/mmg.cgi?eid=50474510&lang=en Contact: OpenJaw Amanda Campbell Director – Marketing Communications Email: email@example.com Phone: +353 86 606 9177
kulula Airlines selects the OpenJaw t-Retail Platform to advance retailing strategy
Press spacebar to pause and continue. Press esc to stop.


text:
Did you mean udometer
Find definition, audio pronunciations, example sentences, spelling, synonyms, antonyms, translations, word games and more.
Synonym Center
- What is a synonym?
- What is an antonym?
- What is a thesaurus?
- What is an adjective?
- What is a verb?
- What is a noun?
- What is an adverb?
adj. condemned, hopeless
noun. odds and ends
Roget's 21st Century Thesaurus, Third Edition Copyright © 2013 by the Philip Lief Group.Cite This Source


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TeleNav Shotgun
TeleNav Shotgun : Driving View The map view when driving is limited to a 2D view.
7 / 21
Bottom Line
While an excellent concept, TeleNav's connected Shotgun GPS device with its built-in cellular radio doesn't offer as many location-based services as it seemingly could. While additional features are on TeleNav's development road map, we recommend waiting for the next release to see what's added.


text:
- Age / Gender:
- n/a, Male
- Location:
- Location not disclosed
- Joined:
- 7/11/11
- All Stats >
User Statshot
- Community Stats
Level 6 Blank Slate
Normal Whistle
Ranked as Civilian
Contact Info / Websites
Recent Game Medals
Party In The Dungeon 25 Points That's quite a busy reign Medal Stats.
Eternity 50 Points Grab your piece of eternal kingship Medal Stats.
Whyyyyy? 25 Points Kinghood suxx Medal Stats.
Love Always Remains 25 Points Take the easy way out. Medal Stats.
Hero 100 Points Finish the game Medal Stats.
The COre 25 Points Get the COre. Medal Stats.
SECRET MEDAL 25 Points Unlock this medal to see it's details. Medal Stats.
Jewelry 50 Points Give Jamie some rubies. Medal Stats.
SECRET MEDAL 50 Points Unlock this medal to see it's details. Medal Stats.
DIAMOND 25 Points Find diamond. Medal Stats.
Total Medals Earned: 259 (From 41 different games.)


text:
|Found 322 Recipes
|Revise this Search New Search
Dairy Queen Cakeby squirrelwolfs Sometimes,I like to add nuts under the cool whip & on top. Pecans, wal..
Caramel Ice Creamby defient Pictured with chocolate chip pecan pie...recipe under the pie and tart..
FROSTED JACK-O-LANTERNSby hdmacwa Serve ice cream in these special orange Halloween Jack-O-Lanterns. ..
Ice Cream In A Bagby pochaccoyoly This is excellent for any kid to make
Strawberry Ice Creamby sadiemae1 Saw this one foodtv.com
Cookies & Cream Ice Creamby hendria I bought an Ice-cream Maker during the week at Sears. One of the books..
Homemade Vanilla Ice Creamby apesescape My fondest memories on making Ice Cream with my parent in the summer. ..


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Wrestling with 'The Donald' | Darren Hardy, Publisher of SUCCESS Magazine
Links shared publicly online about this topic.
- 896total visits
Wrestling with 'The Donald' | Darren Hardy, Publisher of SUCCESS Magazine
View full resource at darrenhardy.success.com
Most Recently Shared on September 18, 2010 at 8:28 pm By:
Reading: "Wrestling with 'The Donald'"( http://twitthis.com/eqjesb )
The Neuroscience of Effort | Wired Science | Wired.com
wired.com — "A glimpse into what happens as your brain wrestles with duty and distraction." View full resource at wired.com
Most Recently Shared on May 18, 2012 at 6:20 am By:
RT @FindHelpSA: The Neuroscience Of Effort http://t.co/BojYJf7n
Diamond Dallas Page Talks Wrestling, MMA and Yoga | Bleacher Report
bleacherreport.com — "Wrestling fans, remember Diamond Dallas Page? You know, that guy in WCW that was the original People's Champion? The man that invented the Diamond Cutter (known as the RKO today by Randy Orton fans)..." View full resource at bleacherreport.com
Most Recently Shared on February 27, 2010 at 10:11 am By:
Diamond Dallas Page Talks Wrestling, MMA, and Yoga http://bit.ly/cUdhwL
Teen survives battle with MRSA
daytondailynews.com — "Cole vencill, a 15-year-old quarterback on the milton-union football team and a survivor of mrsa, is pleased to be back in school, playing football and competing on the school's wrestling team." View full resource at daytondailynews.com
Most Recently Shared on September 25, 2009 at 4:12 pm By:
One of our patient's story on his battle with MRSA. http://bit.ly/2ZCSqO


text:
Hi i'm trying to implement the above example but i
Hi i'm trying to implement the above example but i got fatal exception . first of all i couldnt able to create sessionfactory. null pointer exception occured at the creating of sessionfactory. pls do advise me. Thanks
Should the POJO class always be Serializable? Why?
Should the POJO class always be Serializable? Why?
And what are the use of default constructors in the POJO class?
The <generator class = "increment"> in the <id> el
The <generator class = "increment"> in the <id> element tells hibernate to generate the primary key "id" by incrementing by 1.
In the Tutorial.hbm.xml file, what is the use of <
In the Tutorial.hbm.xml file, what is the use of <generator class = "increment"> in the <id> element?
problem in executing the code
i usually get SAX parse exception even the file is properly placed i also donot find any problem in validation with dtd. is there any soln. a warning i also get about to use log4j
I donot want to write cfg file to configure. I want to configure it by code. Please send me a code snippet.
wrong directory \code?
"Place hibernate.cfg.xml file in the source directory e.g. "C:\Struts-Hibernate-Integration\code\src\java""
in the directory
WEB-INF\src\java ?
Default Constructor in POJO
HIbernate uses reflection to instantiate a POJO class to set the values into it from the DB. SO it does the instantiation using Java Reflection. When a class is instantiated using reflection the class must have a default constructor. Otherwise an exc
hibernate Configuration with eclpse 3.1 - Hibernate
hibernate Configuration with eclpse 3.1 Dear Sir,
i m developing a program using hibernate with struts.
but i am not able to configure...
Udbhava Srivastava Hi friend,
For solving the problem on Hibernate
Struts2 And Hibernate Configuration
Struts2 And Hibernate Configuration Sir,
I am new to struts2,
I am trying to write a program using struts2 and hibernate.
I want to know how....
Bachan Sahoo
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struts hibernate integraion tut - Struts
struts hibernate integraion tut Hi, I was running struts hibernate integration tutorial. I am facing following error while executing the example. type Exception report message description The server encountered
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Struts Hibernate Spring HI Deepak,
This is reddy.i want expamle for struts hibernate spring example. Hi Friend,
Please visit the following link:
configuration - Struts
class,ActionForm,Model in struts framework.
What we will write in each of this? Hi friend,
A model represents an application?s data... in the model.The JSP file reads information from the ActionForm bean using JSP tags
Struts Hibernate Integration
Hibernate tutorial
Writing Hibernate configuration
Struts Hibernate
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Downloading Struts, Hibernate and Integrate
hibernate,struts i m using my eclipse 8.0 for hibernate appln execution.in that why doc type is mandatory in xml files(configuration and mapping0


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LINCOLN � Two years ago, Kaelyn Zak was a healthy, athletic 12-year-old, an excellent student at Lincoln Middle School, one of the top 100 junior tennis player in the United States and a qualifier for regional and national swimming competitions.
�She was the strongest, healthiest kid you�d ever want to meet,� Gail Zak said of her daughter.
Then, in August 2011, Kaelyn rolled her right ankle while hitting balls with her father, Jim, and suffered a hairline fracture of the growth plate. Her life has not been the same since.
Kaelyn spent two months in the Pediatric Teen Rehabilitation Center at Boston Children�s Hospital, enduring pain so excruciating that she could not tolerate the most gentle wisp of air from a fan, or the brush of fresh sheets against her skin. Two months after being discharged, she contracted a virus that produced a syndrome which caused her to sleep 16 hours a day and to suffer debilitating headaches and backaches. And last summer, as she prepared to enter Lincoln High School, the pain that had subsided in her ankle erupted in her right shoulder.
�I went to my bedroom and cried for two hours straight. I didn�t know how to deal with it,� she said.
In addition to her illnesses, she also had to deal with insensitive students who wondered why she missed so much school and received special consideration from teachers and coaches.
�I would lie in bed every single night and wonder what God had planned for me. Why does he do this to me? I was a good girl. I got the grades. I got the athletic achievements. I got the friends. What more does he want from me?� she said.
But deal she did, relying on the strength of her parents, the encouragement of her doctors at Hasbro Chldren�s and Boston Children�s Hospitals, prayers from the congregation at Calvin Presbyterian Church in Cumberland, support from friends near and far, and her own steely resolve to get better.
The good news is Kaelyn is playing tennis again, No. 3 singles for the Lincoln High School boys team. Headaches and fatigue remain issues, but she has compiled a 3-4 record and impressed opposing coaches with her athleticism, sound technique, solid serve and potent forehand.
�She�s an amazing athlete,� Barrington coach Dick Ernst said after Zak defeated his No. 3 player in a three-set, 2�-hour marathon on April 25.
�She is good,� South Kingstown coach Andy Carr said last week after his No. 3, Jason Yang, defeated Zak.
Kaelyn suffers from reflex sympathetic dystrophy, a rare disorder of the sympathetic nervous system. Symptoms include burning pain, swelling, and extreme sensitivity to touch and to hot and cold temperatures. Doctors do not fully understand the cause, but it may be the result of trauma, nerve damage, surgery or infection.
She also has post viral syndrome, a condition similar to chronic fatigue syndrome but following a viral infection. Its symptoms include disabling fatigue, pain, neurocognitive difficulties and moodiness.
Kaelyn started eighth grade in 2011 with the sore ankle. By November the pain was so intense that she was admitted to the Pediatric Pain Rehabilitation Center at Boston Children�s Hospital in Waltham, Mass.
�She could barely walk. She couldn�t do one mile per hour for one minute on the treadmill, and she was holding on,� Gail Zak said.
For 10 hours every day, doctors, nurses and rehab specialists worked with Kaelyn. She was discharged in January 2012, walking again but still in pain. She returned to school and began swimming at the Woonsocket YMCA. At the end of the season she received an award for her accomplishments. �My teammates always picked me up. They made me laugh,� she said.
But in March, terrible fatigue struck. The initial diagnosis of mononucleosis was changed to post viral syndrome. She missed more school, a total of 75 days for the academic year, and by the end was concentrating on three core courses.
�I was constantly tired. My friends began to drift away, and I began to drift away as well,� she said. She leaned on a tennis friend, Stephanie Nemtsova of Miami.
�We Skyped a lot. We started talking a lot more every day. I told her I don�t know if I can get through this. Everyone at school is making fun of me. I�m always out. I never look sick. I try to explain, but they don�t listen. She was a listener.
�I�ll never forget the day I barely made it to school for two class periods. I was ready to go home, and one of my friends came up and said, �Why are you going home? You�re not sneezing or coughing. You don�t look sick.� I felt like I had nowhere to turn. . . . I never thought I would get back to where I was. I was in a dark place at that time. Those six months were the hardest time of my life.�
Kaelyn was in no condition to try out for the Lincoln girls tennis team last fall; she started running again only in November. Her doctor allowed her to swim, however, so this former individual medley champion joined the Lions for the breaststroke and qualified for the state championships.
But swimming presented challenges.
�I had to rest a lot. I didn�t make it to practices. It was like eighth grade again. �Why is she getting special treatment?� �Why isn�t she trying?� People talked behind my back. It was a fiasco. I got a bit bullied,� she said.
Eventually, she realized that her stoic approach � �I like to stay tough and not let people know I�m weak� � was not working. She started explaining how she was feeling and why and her teammates began to understand.
Tennis has been a different story. Lincoln coach Tim Potter knew of Kaelyn�s success as a junior and was thrilled when she signed up for the boys team. He checked with the Interscholastic League, which determined she was eligible because she had not played in the fall.
�At the first meeting there were a few weird stares. I expected someone to ask, �Are you lost?� � Kaelyn said, laughing.
�I�m very fortunate to be able to have her be part of this team,� Potter said. �She�s an inspiration to all. She has won matches, and the boys on the team have taken a liking to her.�
Her opponents respect her. When she apologizes for their having to play a girl, they respond with, �No problem, let�s have a good match.�
�I view myself as one of the guys. It�s a way to be accepted,� she said.
�I was really exited when she came out for the team. She�s a great player, and I knew she�d help the team a lot,� said the Lions captain, Cory DiPaola. �We�re all very friendly with her. We all respect her. We understand when she can�t make a match or can�t do the drills.�
DiPaola added: �She will be a leader on this team the next three years. She is a great role model.�
Kaelyn has not begun to think about next year and whether she will play girls or boys tennis. She wants to regain her strength and would like to play USTA tournaments this summer. An honors student with a 4.0 average, she dreams of playing college tennis and then going to medical school.
�Without the incredible doctors at Boston Children�s and Hasbro Children�s, I would probably not be standing here today. I would probably be locked up in a wheelchair. Hopefully I can change lives just like the doctors did with me.�
Location, ST | website.com


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Bryan County High School
Public School | Grades 9-12 | Bryan County
Pembroke, GA 31321
(912) 626-5060
About This School
Bryan County High School is located in Pembroke, GA and is one of 3 high schools in Bryan County School District. It is a public school that serves 532 students in grades 9-12. See Bryan County High School's test results to learn more about school performance.
In 2011, Bryan County High School had 15 students for every full-time equivalent teacher. The Georgia average is 15 students per full-time equivalent teacher.
In 2011, Bryan County High School had 15 students for every full-time equivalent teacher. The Georgia average is 15 students per full-time equivalent teacher.
Student Ethnicity (2011)
Students (2011)
Students Per Teacher (2011)
Female/Male (2011)
47% 53%
Subsidized Lunch (2011)
District Spending (2010)
$7,529per student
See All Test Scores
Grade 9 U.S. History Performance
EOCT Results
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Bryan County High School Reviews
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I think our school is great. We have great teachers and students who are ready to learn. Our new principal is doing a great job.
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I think it's a pretty good school...It is a lot better than the surrounding school systems. i wouldn't send my child to any other school.
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I think they need to get a grip on disrespect and children who want to keep others from learning. I would not reccomend this school to anyone.
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SILVER CREEK (Llano County). Silver Creek rises four miles west of Oxford in central Llano County (at 30°36' N, 98°38' W) and runs south for five miles to its mouth on Sandy Creek, three miles from the intersection of State Highway 16 and Ranch Road 965 (at 30°33' N, 98°40' W). It traverses an area of the Llano Basin characterized by flat to rolling terrain with locally deep and dense dissection, covered with generally shallow and stony soils. Vegetation consists primarily of open stands of live oak and mesquite.
The following, adapted from the Chicago Manual of Style, 15th edition, is the preferred citation for this article."SILVER CREEK (LLANO COUNTY)," Handbook of Texas Online (http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/rbsbp), accessed November 29, 2015. Uploaded on June 15, 2010. Published by the Texas State Historical Association.
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Thanks for the info Ian. The St Ives images I was thinking of are here and here. My Devon pic is here.
You're right that they are all 35mm though and probably not in the same league as you refer to.
MF is something I've wanted to move to for a while but times are hard in the Smith household and it's taken me a couple of years to build up my F5 rig to what it is without now reinvesting in MF bodies and lenses. I realise it's necessary for serious landscape work, but justifying the cost to the wife is another matter!


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Everything in the real world. Does your subject land anywhere on something other than a totally predictable straight-line part of the curve. Of course it does. You've got gradation curves inherent to
shadows and highlights, and what you do to midtone expansion affects your choice of how this works.
ASA is really arbitrary in this respect, even from one shot to another with the same film. What counts is how you actually distribute specific parts of the scene onto the curve geometry. The Zone System is
just a generalized way to classify how you go about this, which you can make as simple or as complicated as you with. Walking around with a calculator and some other model might work perfectly
well for someone else. But in effect, you are still altering your ASA whenever you change your endpoints
or midpoint. It's all relative. Hypothetically, I might even want to blank out the shadows ala Brett Weston, but gotta know what's going on at the bottom of the curve, regardless of ASA. One film will
do it, another will just leave you with mud, even though under ordinary circumstances you would assign
them exactly the same ASA. I guess you could go around with a pocket computer programmed with
calculus and fiddle with all kinds of silly integers or micro-hedgehogs in it or whatever. If that's the kind
of thing you enjoy, fine. I do plenty of densitometer work in the lab when it's actually relevant. But in
the field I want to instinctively know what's going to happen under a wide and often suddenly-changing
scope of lighting. The way I conceive of ASA might shift just as fast.


text:
Testimony by Jackson's mother to resume on Monday
FILE - In this April 27, 2011 file photo, Katherine Jackson poses for a portrait in Calabasas, Calif. Jackson is expected to be the final witness Friday, July 19, 2013, in the plaintiff's case against AEG Live LLC. The Jackson family matriarch is suing the company, claiming it failed to adequately investigate the doctor convicted of giving her son an overdose of anesthetic in 2009. (AP Photo/Matt Sayles, File)
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Questioning of Michael Jackson's mother has been suspended after a judge determined she needed a break for the weekend.
Katherine Jackson testified for about 10 minutes in an afternoon session before Superior Court Judge Yvette Palazuelos questioned whether she could continue.
The Jackson family matriarch was undergoing cross-examination by an attorney for AEG Live LLC.
The 83-year-old woman is suing the concert promotion company, claiming it did not properly investigate the doctor who was convicted of causing her son's death.
An AEG attorney had been asking Katherine Jackson questions about who she had consulted before filing the lawsuit in September 2010.
Her attorney Brian Panish told the judge that his client had only slept for about three hours on Thursday night.


text:
Two-time A-League champions Melbourne Victory have boosted their midfield by signing attack-minded Brazilian Guilherme Finkler and Jonathan Bru of Mauritius, the club said on Friday.
Both were signed to two-year deals with Finkler joining from Brazilian second division outfit Criciuma and defensive midfielder Bru leaving Moreirense FC in Portugal's second tier.
"Brazilian players have certain qualities that not many other players possess, so I'm confident he can bring a different type of flair to the group, but more importantly, he comes with a determination and ambition to be part of a successful team," Victory's new coach Ange Postecoglou said.
Finkler, 26, has spent the majority of his professional career in Brazil, but also had a season with English Championship side Wolverhampton Wanderers. Bru, 27, played youth football for France, where he was born, but never made the senior side. He has nine international caps for Mauritius.
"I made it a priority to secure an experienced, defence-minded midfielder and Jonathan looks to be the ideal fit for our squad, especially considering the array of attacking options we have," Postecoglou said.


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The fall season has reached a point where there is a level of familiarity between teammates.
For a group of the Hope College women's soccer team, the familiarity has reached another level.
With six local players in the regular rotation, the Flying Dutch have a chemistry level that most teams envy.
The fall season has reached a point where there is a level of familiarity between teammates.
For a group of the Hope College women's soccer team, the familiarity has reached another level.
With six local players in the regular rotation, the Flying Dutch have a chemistry level that most teams envy.
"Our whole team is a very coherent team," Hope forward Erin Jipping said. "Having locals, especially during the summer really helps us out coming into the season."
Jipping use that familiarity on Tuesday to defeat Saint Mary's 2-0 Tuesday at Van Andel Soccer Stadium.
"This team decided what it wanted and has worked really hard for it," Hope coach Leigh Sears said. "Having (local players) definitely helps."
Early in the first half, the West Ottawa graduate surged past the defense to the right of the goal, taking the ball all the way to the goal line.
Just as her momentum was taking her out of play, Jipping somehow managed to angle a perfect pass in front of the goal to Lindsey Bieri. The Holland Christian graduate buried the shot into the back of the net for a 1-0 Hope lead.
"Just making sure I got my hips around the ball and I saw Lindsey at the top of the box and put it right at her feet. She finished it," Jipping said. "We have played together since we were 10 years old. We played on travel teams, split up in high school, and now we are back together. Finding each other's feet with different combinations has been fun. It is great playing with her again."
Hope is 13-2 and and is tied for second place in the Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association at 10-2 with Alma, a half game behind first-place Calvin. The top four teams qualify for the MIAA Tournament.
"We are peaking at the right time, but we have three huge games on the road coming up," Jipping said. "This is great momentum heading into those games, but we have to take care of business on the road."
Jipping added more fancy footwork when she raced to a similar spot right of the goal and lofted a shot with minimal angle over the head of Saint Mary's goalie Chanler Rosenbaum.
"It wasn't the best angle but I saw the opportunity and had to get my hips around it again," Jipping said. "I just had the right loft on it and it went right above the keeper's hands."
Pair that chemistry between the forwards with more from midfielders and backs like Maria DeShaw (West Ottawa), Rachel Rebhan (Zeeland East) and Sarah Fazio (Holland Christian) as well as reserve forward Kristina Bosch (Holland Christian) and most of this team has played on the same field together as teammates and opponents for close to a decade.
Page 2 of 2 - "Maria rolls up out of the back and is doing a great job of putting the balls in on one-touches," Jipping said. "She has a perfect touch on the ball. It is almost perfect every single time."
DeShaw, who takes most of Hope's corner kicks, was on several of those travel teams with Jipping and Bieri.
"Just like Lindsey, I have played with Maria since I was 10, but I got to play high school with her, too," Jipping said. "We have been together for a really long time, and it has been great."
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Picture: Daniel Radcliffe The U.S premiere of 'Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix' at the Grauman's Chinese Theatre Hollywood, California - 08.07.07
Actor Daniel Radcliffe has quashed rumours revered filmmaker Steven Spielberg will be directing the seventh Harry Potter movie. The 18-year-old, who is currently shooting Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince - the sixth movie in the boy wizard franchise, is adamant Spielberg will not be taking the helm for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, even though a director has yet to be appointed for the movie. He tells British radio station Heart FM, "It's absolute rubbish. It's not true. There's absolutely no foundation in that at all. I have no idea how that rumour started or where it came from."


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The Dark Knight Rises Anticipation Station
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June 30 2011, 05:35 PM
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Location: Gotham
Re: The Dark Knight Rises Anticipation Station
I'm sure the TDKR art and prop department could streamline the look of the goggles for the film for them to be more practical visually. Rao...this seems such an inane thing to be nitpicky about, and no that was not intended to be a shot at you Kegg, just a general observation. Selina's goggles have the kitty motif going on with them with the sharp angles protruding upwards. Anyways there are any number of ways the goggles can be redesigned "to look practical" and sure they will be.
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January 09, 2015
Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 3: Do Firms Know What They Don't Know?
In the previous two macroblog posts, we introduced you to the inflation expectations of firms and argued that the question you ask matters a lot. In this week's final post, we examine another important dimension of our data: inflation uncertainty, a topic of some deliberation at the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting (according to the recently released minutes).
Survey data typically measure only the inflation expectation of a respondent, not the certainty surrounding that prediction. As a result, survey-based measures often use the disagreement among respondents as a proxy for uncertainty, but as Rob Rich, Joe Tracy, and Matt Ploenzke at the New York Fed caution in this recent blog post, you probably shouldn't do this.
Because we derive business inflation expectations from the probabilities that each firm assigns to various unit cost outcomes, we can measure the inflation uncertainty of a respondent directly. And that allows us to investigate whether uncertainty plays a role in the accuracy of firm inflation predictions. We wanted to know: Do firms know what they don't know?The following table, adapted from our recent working paper, reports the accuracy of a business inflation forecast relative to the firm's inflation uncertainty at the time the forecast was made. We first compare the prediction accuracy of firms who have a larger-than-average degree of prediction uncertainty against those with less-than-average uncertainty. We also compare the most uncertain firms with the least uncertain firms.
On average, firms provide relatively accurate, unbiased assessments of their future unit cost changes. But the results also clearly support the conclusion that more uncertain respondents tend to be significantly less accurate inflation forecasters.Maybe this result doesn't strike you as mind-blowing. Wouldn't you expect firms with the greatest inflation uncertainty to make the least accurate inflation predictions? We would, too. But isn't it refreshing to know that business decision-makers know when they are making decisions under uncertainty? And we also think that monitoring how certain respondents are about their inflation expectation, in addition to whether the average expectation for the group has changed, should prove useful when evaluating how well inflation expectations are anchored. If you think so too, you can monitor both on our website's Inflation Project page.
January 9, 2015 in Business Inflation Expectations, Forecasts, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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January 07, 2015
Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 2: The Question You Ask Matters—A Lot
In our previous macroblog post, we discussed the inflation expectations of firms and observed that—while on average these expectations look similar to that of professional forecasters—they reveal considerably more variation of opinion. Further, the inflation expectations of firms look very different from what we see in the household survey of inflation expectations.
The usual focal point when trying to explain measurement differences among surveys of inflation expectations is the respondent, or who is taking the survey. In the previous macroblog post, we noted that some researchers have indicated that not all households are equally informed about inflation trends and that their expectations are somehow biased by this ignorance. For example, Christopher Carroll over at Johns Hopkins suggests that households update their inflation expectations through the news, and some may only infrequently read the press. Another example comes from a group of researchers at the New York Fed and Carnegie Mellon They've suggested that less financially literate households tend to persistently have the highest inflation expectations.
But what these and related research assume is that whom you ask the question of is of primary significance. Could it be that it's the question being asked that accounts for such disagreement among the surveys?
We know, for example, that professional forecasters are asked to predict a particular inflation statistic, while households are simply asked about the behavior of "prices in general" and prices "on the average." To an economist, these amount to pretty much the same thing. But are they the same thing in the minds of non-economists?You may be surprised, but the answer is no (as a recent Atlanta Fed working paper discussed). When we asked our panel of firms to predict by how much "prices will change overall in the economy"—essentially the same question the University of Michigan asks households—business leaders make the same prediction we see in the survey of households: Their predictions seem high relative to the trend in the inflation data, and the range of opinion among businesses on where prices "overall in the economy" are headed is really, really wide (see the table).
But what if we ask businesses to predict a particular inflation statistic, as the Philly Fed asks professional forecasters to do? We did that, too. And you know what? Not only did a majority of our panelists (about two-thirds) say they were "familiar" with the inflation statistic, but their predictions looked remarkably similar to that of professional forecasters (see the table).
So when we ask firms to answer the same question asked of professional forecasters, we got back something that was very comparable to responses given by professional forecasters. But when you ask firms the same question typically asked of households, we got back responses that looked very much like what households report.
Moreover, we dug through the office file cabinets, remembering a related table adapted from a joint project between the Cleveland Fed and the Ohio State University that was highlighted in a 2001 Cleveland Fed Economic Commentary. In August 2001, a group of Ohio households were asked to provide their perception of how much the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had increased over the last 12 months, and we compared it with how much they thought "prices" had risen over the past 12 months.The households reported that the CPI had risen 3 percent—nearly identical to what the CPI actually rose over the period (2.7 percent). However, in responding to the vaguely worded notion of "prices," the average response was nearly 7 percent (see the table). So again, it seems that the loosely defined concept of "prices" is eliciting a response that looks nothing like what economists would call inflation.
So it turns out that the question you ask matters—a lot—more so, evidently, than to whom you ask the question. What's the right question to ask? We think it's the question most relevant to the decisions facing the person you are asking. In the case of firms (and others, we suspect), what's most relevant are the costs they think they are likely to face in the coming year. What is unlikely to be top-of-mind for business decision makers is the future behavior of an official inflation statistic or their thoughts on some ambiguous concept of general prices.
In the next macroblog post, we'll dig even deeper into the data.
January 7, 2015 in Business Inflation Expectations, Forecasts, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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January 05, 2015
Gauging Inflation Expectations with Surveys, Part 1: The Perspective of Firms
Inflation expectations matter. Just ask any central banker (such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, or the Bank of Japan).
Central bankers measure inflation expectations in more than a few ways, which is another way of saying no measure of inflation expectations is entirely persuasive.
Survey data on inflation expectations are especially hard to interpret. Surveys of professional economists, such as the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters, reveal inflation expectations that, over time, track fairly close to the trend in the officially reported inflation data. But the inflation predictions by professional forecasters are extraordinarily similar and call into question whether they represent the broader population.
The inflation surveys of households, however, reveal a remarkably wide range of opinion on future inflation compared to those of professional forecasters. Really, really wide. For example, in any particular month, 13 percent of the University of Michigan's survey of households predicts year-ahead inflation to be more than 10 percent, an annual inflation rate not seen since October 1981. Even in the aggregate, the inflation predictions of households persistently track much higher than the officially reported inflation data (see the chart). These and other curious patterns in the household survey data call into question whether these data really represent the inflation predictions on which households act.
Even if you're unfamiliar with the literature on this subject, the above observations may not strike you as particularly hard to believe. Economists are, presumably, expert on inflation, while households experience inflation from their own unique—some would suggest even uninformed—perspectives.
We have yet another survey of inflation expectations, one from the perspective of businesses leaders. We think this may be an especially useful perspective on future inflation since business leaders, after all, are the price setters. Our survey has been in the field for a little more than three years now—just long enough, we think, to step back and take stock of what business inflation expectations look like, especially in comparison to the other survey data.
Our initial impressions are reported in a recent Atlanta Fed working paper, and the next few macroblog posts will share some of our favorite observations from this research.
We have been asking firms to assign probabilities to possible changes in their unit costs over the year ahead. From these probabilities, we compute how much firms think their costs are going to change in the coming year and how certain they are of that change (see the table). What we find is that the inflation expectations of firms, on average, look something like the inflation predictions of professional forecasters, but not so much like the predictions of households.
But we also find that there is a significant range of opinion among firms, more so than the range of opinions that forecasting professionals express. Some of the variation among firms appears to be related to their particular industries and are broadly correlated with the uneven cost pressures shown in similar industrial breakdowns of the Producer Price Index from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (see the table).
So what we have now are three surveys of inflation expectations, each yielding very different inflation predictions. What accounts for the variation we see across the surveys? Our survey allows us to experiment a bit, which was one of the motivations for conducting it. We didn't just want to measure the inflation expectations of firms; we wanted to learn about those expectations. In the next few macroblog posts, we'll tell you a few of the things we've learned. And we think some of our initial findings will surprise you.
January 5, 2015 in Business Inflation Expectations, Forecasts, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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August 18, 2014
Are You Sure We're Not There Yet?
In recent macroblog posts, our colleagues Dave Altig and John Robertson have posed the questions Getting There? and Are We There Yet?, respectively. "There" in these posts refers to "full employment." Dave and John conclude that while we may be getting there, we're not there yet.
Not everyone agrees with that assessment, of course. Among the recent evidence some observers cite in defense of an approaching full-employment and growing wage pressures is the following chart. It shows a rather strong correlation between survey data from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) on the proportion of firms planning to raise worker compensation over the next three months and lagged wage and salary growth (see the chart). (This recent post from the Dismal Scientist blog and this short article from the Dallas Fed also discuss this assessment.)
OK, no people brave enough to weigh in on this issue are actually saying they know for certain where the line is that separates rising wage pressures from just more of the same. But if you are looking for a sign of impending wage pressure, the chart above certainly looks compelling. Well, except that a pretty large gap has opened up between the behavior of the NFIB survey data and the actual growth trend in compensation since 2011. We'll have more on that in a moment.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta also conducts a survey of businesses, and among the things we occasionally ask our panel is how much they expect to adjust their compensation of workers (including benefits) in the year ahead. But our survey data aren't showing the same rise in compensation expectations that we see in the NFIB survey data (see the tables).
Of the 210 business respondents who answered the compensation question in our August survey, 81 percent expect to increase compensation over the next 12 months, compared with 4 percent who expect to reduce compensation for the next 12 months. In other words, on net, 77 percent of the businesses in our panel expect to raise compensation during the next 12 months. This share is a shade less than the proportion of firms that expected to increase compensation in May 2013.
Our survey data are not directly comparable to the NFIB since the NFIB survey asks firms about their plans during the next three months, and we ask about plans during the coming 12 months. Moreover, the NFIB surveys small businesses—roughly 75 percent of the businesses in the NFIB survey employ fewer than 20 workers, and about 60 percent employ fewer than 10.
So we cut our survey to isolate the smaller firms. The first observation we note is that as the size of the firm shrinks, so does the proportion of small firms planning to increase wages. This result isn't especially surprising since the small firms in our panel report considerably worse prevailing business conditions than do the large firms. But more to the point, we still fail to pick up a rise in expected wage pressure. On net in August, 53 percent of the firms in our panel that employ fewer than 20 workers expect to raise worker compensation during the next 12 months. That percent is down from 69 percent of similarly sized firms in May 2013.
Further, the average amount that firms expect to increase wages (2.7 percent) is also about unchanged from 15 months ago (2.8 percent), and this result is rather consistent by firm size and industry. If anything, our panel of businesses reports less expected compensation pressure in the year ahead than when we last asked them in May 2013. So no matter how we cut our panel data, we have trouble confirming the story that firms are anticipating significantly more wage pressure today than a year or so ago.
But maybe this is missing the big point of the figure that kicked off this post. Since about 2011, there appears to be a growing discrepancy between the recent trend in the NFIB survey on compensation increases and actual compensation increases. One could interpret that observation in two very different ways. The first is that the growing gap between the NFIB survey data and actual wage growth suggests pressure on compensation that will soon break loose. Perhaps. But another interpretation is that the relationship between the NFIB survey and actual wage increases has broken down recently. Correlation is different than causation, and many correlations coming from the labor market in recent years appear to be deviating from their historical norms. Isn't that the takeaway of the two earlier macroblog posts?
We're not brave enough to say that we know for certain that the economy isn't on the verge of an accelerated pace of compensation growth. But, if we were brave enough, we'd say our survey data indicate that such acceleration is unlikely.
August 18, 2014 in Employment, Inflation Expectations, Labor Markets | Permalink
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With such a large pool of untapped labor (with almost 10 million currently "counted" as unemployed with another 11 million "not in the labor force" since the recession officially ended in June 2009), I doubt pressure on compensation will soon break loose. Add to that, more offshoring, automation/robotics, a rise in part-time work and more H-1B visas, and I hardly see a reason why the "job creators" will feel a need to raise wages unless the federal and state minimum wages laws force them to. As it is now, when they can, they use undocumented workers and reclassify many others as "independent contractors". Where's the pressure?
Posted by:
Bud Meyers |
August 20, 2014 at 09:37 AM
June 25, 2013
Getting Back to Normal?
Central to any discussion about monetary policy is the degree to which the economy is underperforming relative to its potential, or in more ordinary language, how much slack exists. OK, so how much slack is there, and how long will it take to be absorbed? Well, if you ask the Congressional Budget Office (and a lot of people do), they would have told you last February (their latest estimate) that the economy was underperforming just a shade more than 4 percent relative to its potential last summer, and that slack was likely to increase a little by this summer (to around 4.7 percent). Go to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and they tell a very similar story in their April World Economic Outlook. The IMF estimates that the amount of slack in the U.S. economy was about 4.2 percent last year, and they expected it would rise a little to about 4.4 percent this year.
As devotees of our Business Inflation Expectations survey know (and you know who you are), the Atlanta Fed has a quarterly, subjective measure of economic slack in the economy as seen by business leaders. This month, businesses told us something pretty interesting—the amount of slack they think they have narrowed pretty sharply between March and June.
Last March, the panel told us that their unit sales were 7.7 percent below "normal"—similar to their assessments in December and September. This month, however, the group cut their estimate of slack to 4.3 percent below normal, on average (see the table).
What we find most encouraging about this assessment (well, besides the speed at which the slack was being taken up) is that the improvement was most prominent among small and medium-sized firms. These are firms that, according to our survey and other reports (like this one from the National Federation of Independent Business), have been lagging behind in the recovery. Indeed, in June, mid-sized firms indicated that unit sales were only 1.5 percent below normal, a shade better than the big firms in our panel (see the table).
A look at the industry composition of our survey reveals that the pickup of slack was relatively broadly based too. Only the firms in the mining and utilities, and the professional and business services areas reported more slack relative to March (and the amounts were pretty small at that). Elsewhere, the amount of slack appears to have narrowed quite a bit.
OK, so slack is shrinking, and according to these estimates, it shrank quite a bit between March and June. Does that mean we should be anticipating growing price pressure? Well, we can turn to our panelists again for an answer, and they say no. Projecting over the year ahead, our panelists report little change in either their inflationary sentiment or their inflation uncertainty (see the table).
Last Wednesday, at the conclusion of its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said that the recovery is proceeding and the labor market is improving, but inflation expectations remain stable. Our June poll of business leaders appears to have also endorsed this view of the economy.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist,
Brent Meyer, economist, and
Nicholas Parker, senior economic research analyst, all in the Atlanta Fed's research department
June 25, 2013 in Business Inflation Expectations, Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy, GDP, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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May 16, 2013
Labor Costs, Inflation Expectations, and the Affordable Care Act: What Businesses Are Telling Us
The Atlanta Fed's May survey of businesses showed little overall concern about near-term inflation. Year-ahead unit cost expectations averaged 2 percent, down a tenth from April and on par with business inflation expectations at this time last year.
OK, we're going to guess this observation doesn't exactly knock you off your chair. But here's something we've been keeping an eye on that you might find interesting. When we ask firms about what role, if any, labor costs are likely to play in their prices over the next 12 months, an increasing proportion have been telling us they see a potential for upward price pressure coming from labor costs (see the chart).
To investigate further, we posed a special question to our Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) panel regarding their expectations for compensation growth over the next 12 months: "Projecting ahead over the next 12 months, by roughly what percentage do you expect your firm's average compensation per worker (including benefits) to change?"
We got a pretty large range of responses, but on average, firms told us they expect average compensation growth—including benefits—of 2.8 percent. That's about a percent higher than the average over the past year (as estimated by either the index of compensation per hour or the employment cost index). But a 2.8 percent rise is also about a percentage point below average compensation growth before the recession. We're included to read the survey as a confirmation that labor markets are improving and expected to improve further over the coming year. But we're not inclined to interpret the survey data as an indication that the labor market is nearing full employment.
We've also been hearing more lately about the potential for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to have a significant influence on labor costs and, presumably, to provide some upward price pressure. Indeed, several of our panelists commented on their concern about the influence of the ACA when they completed their May BIE survey. So can we tie any of this expected compensation growth to the ACA, a significant share of which is scheduled to go into effect eight months from now?
Because a disproportionate impact from the ACA will fall on firms that employ 50 or more workers, we separated our panel into firms with 50 or more employees, and those employing fewer than 50 workers. What we see is that average expected compensation growth is the same for the bigger employers and smaller employers. Moreover, the big firms in our sample report the same inflation expectation as the smaller firms.
But the data reveal that the bigger firms are a little more uncertain about their unit cost projections for the year ahead. OK, it's not a big difference, but it is statistically significant. So while their cost and compensation expectations are not yet being affected by the prospect of the ACA, the act might be influencing their uncertainty about those potential costs.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist,
Brent Meyer, economist, and
Nicholas Parker, senior economic research analyst, all in the Atlanta Fed's research department
May 16, 2013 in Business Inflation Expectations, Economics, Health Care, Inflation Expectations, Labor Markets, Pricing | Permalink
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Maybe we're finally reaching the point where firms can no longer expropriate productivity gains. If you look at the total hourly compensation for non-supervisory workers vs. productivity, the last 40 years have more or less seen the gains made during the Great Compression utterly obliterated. Now that we're back to Gilded-Age levels of income distribution, it may be that we've reached an equilibrium.
Posted by:
Valerie Keefe |
May 19, 2013 at 12:22 PM
April 16, 2013
Improvement in the Outlook? The BIE Panel Thinks So
Earlier this month, Dennis Lockhart, the Atlanta Fed's top guy, gave his assessment of the economy and monetary policy to the Kiwanis Club of Birmingham, Alabama. Here's the essential takeaway:
There are encouraging developments in the economy, to be sure, but the evidence of sustainable momentum that will deliver "substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market" is not yet conclusive. ... How will I, as one policymaker, determine that the balance has shifted and the time for a policy change has come? Well, one key consideration is the array of risks to the economic outlook and my degree of confidence in the outlook.
To help the boss assess the risks to the outlook, we reached out to our Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) panel to get a sense of how they view the outlook for their businesses and, notably, how they assess the risks to that outlook. Specifically, we asked:
Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to UNIT SALES LEVELS over the next 12 months.
The table below summarizes the answers and compares them to the responses we got to this statement last November.
First, the business outlook of our panel has improved decidedly since last November. On average, our panel sees unit sales growth averaging 1.8 percent. OK, not a spectacular number, but, to our eyes at least, much improved from the 1.2 percent the group was expecting when we queried five months ago.
And how about the assessment of the risks President Lockhart indicated was also a key consideration? Here again, the sentiment in our panel appears to have shifted favorably. Last November, our panel put the likelihood that their year-ahead unit sales growth would be 1 percent or less at 50 percent. The group now puts the chances of a downshift in business activity at 37 percent. Meanwhile, the upside potential for their sales has grown. Last November, the panel put the chances of a "significant" improvement in unit sales at about 20 percent; this month, the group thinks the likelihood is 30 percent.
And this improved sentiment isn't centered in just a few industries—it's spread across a wide swath of the economy. Firms in construction and real estate, which were, on average, projecting 12-month unit sales growth of 1.1 percent last November, now put that growth number at 1.8 percent. The average sales outlook of general-services firms has risen from 1 percent to 2.2 percent; finance and insurance companies went from 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent; and retailers/wholesalers' unit sales projections rose from 1.5 percent to 2 percent. And manufacturers, who posted relatively strong expectations last November, reported about the same sales outlook this month as they did five months ago.
To be clear, President Lockhart's recent comments—and the Federal Open Market Committee statement on which they are based—indicate he is looking for a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market, not sales. But we're going to assume that it's unlikely to have one without the having the other. And is our panel's unit sales forecast "substantially" improved? Well, what constitutes "substantial" is in the eye of the beholder, but if this isn't a substantial improvement in the outlook, it's certainly a move in that direction.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist, and
Nick Parker, economic research analyst, both in the Atlanta Fed's research department
April 16, 2013 in Business Inflation Expectations, Economics, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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November 20, 2012
Rose-Colored Glasses Make the Future Look Blurry: Sales Uncertainty as Seen by the November BIE
Uncertainty is widely cited as being a significant contributor to the economy's subpar growth. Reddy and Thurm report in yesterday's Wall Street Journal that "half of the nation's 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next," in large measure because of rising economic uncertainty. But how uncertain is the current economic outlook? A few economists have attempted to measure business uncertainty, often by using the degree of disagreement between various forecasts, the volatility of certain economic indicators, or some combination of the two. (Two such approaches can be found here and here.)
We thought we'd use our Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey to see if we could gauge the degree of business uncertainty directly. Last week, we asked our panel to assign probabilities to various sales outcomes for their businesses for the coming year. (This methodology is the same one we have been using to measure inflation uncertainty, except in this case our business panel was asked to reveal their expectations for unit sales growth over the year ahead.)
Specifically, we put to our panel the following statement:
Projecting ahead, to the best of your ability, please assign a percent likelihood to the following changes to unit sales over the next 12 months.
Panelists were given the following five unit sales outcomes:
- down (less than –1 percent)
- about unchanged (–1 percent to 1 percent)
- up somewhat (1.1 percent to 3 percent)
- up significantly (3.1 percent to 5 percent)
- up very significantly (greater than 5 percent)
One hundred and ninety-four businesses responded, and here's what they told us: On average, firms expect unit sales growth of about 1.2 percent in the coming year. That's more pessimistic than the real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast of the consensus of economists for the year (about 2 percent). But the range of possible outcomes seemed, to our eyes a least, to be large and unbalanced.
Consider the chart below, which shows the probabilities the panel, on average, assigned to the various sales outcomes. They assigned a 48 percent chance that their unit sales will grow 1 percent or less in the coming year, balanced against only 23 percent likelihood that unit sales will grow more than 3 percent over the next 12 months. In other words, in the minds of our BIE panel, the range of likely sales outcomes over the year ahead is pretty wide, with a fairly weighty chance that unit sales growth may not move in a positive range at all.
Perhaps we are making a bit too much of the size of the uncertainty businesses are attaching to the outlook. After all, we don't know what uncertainties firms face even in the best of times (since this is the first time we've asked this question). But when we dug into the data a little deeper, we found something else of interest. The degree of economic uncertainty varies widely by firm. Moreover, the greatest uncertainty about the future was held by the panelists who have the most optimistic sales outlook.
Check out the table below. It shows the degree of sales forecast uncertainty on the basis of whether a firm's sales projection is high or low.
Panelists with the most optimistic sales expectations (the 39 firms with the highest sales forecasts) predicted unit sales growth of a little more than 3.5 percent this year, compared with about a 0.5 percent decline in unit sales for the 39 most pessimistic panelists. But also note that those who are relatively optimistic about the coming year have much greater uncertainty about their future than those who are relatively pessimistic—in fact, they're almost twice as uncertain.
What the November BIE survey seems to be saying is that it isn't just that an uncertain business outlook is reining in our growth prospects, but that the outlook is especially uncertain for the firms that think they have the best opportunity for expansion. Apparently, those wearing rose-colored glasses are having trouble seeing through them.
Note: The regular November Business Inflation Expectations report will be released Wednesday morning.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist,
Laurel Graefe, economic policy analysis specialist, and
Nicholas Parker, economic research analyst, all with the Atlanta Fed
November 20, 2012 in Business Inflation Expectations, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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But the coefficient of variation is far higher in the bottom quintile, right?
Posted by:
Sebastien Turban (@PtitSeb) |
November 21, 2012 at 02:21 PM
September 27, 2012
How Big Is the Output Gap? More Perspectives from Our Business Inflation Expectations Survey
Opinions vary widely about how much slack there is in the economy these days. Some say a lot—some say not so much.
Last month, we reached out to members of our Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) panel for their take on the issue. The panel indicated they had more pricing power in August than they did last October. OK, that doesn't exactly gauge the amount of slack businesses think they have, but it does suggest that, however much slack there is, it's been shrinking.
Another detail revealed by our August inquiry was that retailers think they have more pricing power compared with manufacturers—a pretty good sign the latter is experiencing more slack than the former.
In this month's BIE survey we went fishing in the same murky waters, but this time we took a more direct approach. We asked our panel to provide a percentage estimate of how far their sales levels are above/below "normal." Here's what we found: On a gross domestic product (GDP)–weighted basis, the panel estimates that current sales are about 7.5 percent below normal. That's more slack than the conventional estimates, like the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) measure of the GDP gap, which puts the economy about 6 percent under its potential.
But perhaps a more interesting observation from our September survey is how widely current performance varies by sector and size within our panel. Retailers, for example, say their current sales are a little less than 2 percent below normal. And firms in the leisure/hospitality and the transportation/warehousing sectors—sectors where growth has been particularly robust in recent years—say they are operating at, or just a shade above, normal levels.
Compare these estimates with those from durable goods manufacturers, which report that their current sales levels are nearly 12 percent below normal, and finance and insurance companies, which say they are almost 17 percent below normal. And construction firms? Well, best not even ask them.
And the amount of slack firms are reporting isn't just a reflection of their sector of the economy—size also matters. Firms with more than 500 employees say their current sales levels are a little less than 5 percent below normal—half as much as the amount of slack being reported by small firms.
So we're led back to the question that kicked this blog post off. How big is the output gap? Some say a lot—some say not so much. And this difference in perspective is not just among policymakers. Within the economy, experience varies at least as widely; some firms' sales are still well below normal, while others are telling us that they are very nearly back to normal, and some are already there.
But here's the rub. If the economy represents a constellation of firms operating at widely varying levels of capacity, from what viewpoint should we consider the economy relative to its potential? Are aggregate measures, like the one provided by the CBO or by our "GDP-weighted" approach, appropriate perspectives? Indeed, given widely varying measures of economic performance across firms and industries, how meaningful is an aggregate assessment of economic slack?
Ah, we'll leave these questions for the November survey.
By Mike Bryan, vice president and senior economist,
Laurel Graefe, economic policy analysis specialist, and
Nicholas Parker, economic research analyst, all with the Atlanta Fed
September 27, 2012 in Business Inflation Expectations, Inflation, Inflation Expectations | Permalink
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Normal relative to what? To levels at the height of the bubble? Is that really a measurement of the output gap?
Posted by:
Dave Schuler |
September 28, 2012 at 10:04 AM
"If the economy represents a constellation of firms operating at widely varying levels of capacity, from what viewpoint should we consider the economy relative to its potential?"
maybe a fair question, but one unlikely to be addressed by a survey. One can make the same point about inflation: At any one time, some prices are rising and some are falling, so how meaningful is an aggregate measure of the overall price level? That's the macro question for the ages. Also, you ignore the fact that the rate of growth (or rebound) and ability to add capacity is different for each industry. It could be, for example, that some industries will rebound faster or slower than the overall economy and have the ability to add capacity faster (so the measured degree of slack is essentially a function of the degree of fixed or sticky cost structure).
Overall it sounds to me that while the estimate is different than the CBO, the results are still broadly consistent subject to small sample error.
Posted by:
dwb |
October 01, 2012 at 08:35 PM
difference in perspective is not just among policymakers. Within the economy, experience varies at least as widely; some firms' sales are still well below normal, while others are telling us that they are very nearly back to normal, and some are already there.
Posted by:
escort pigerne |
October 22, 2012 at 03:26 AM
And the amount of slack firms are reporting isn't just a reflection of their sector of the economy—size also matters. Firms with more than 500 employees say their current sales levels are a little less than 5 percent below normal—half as much as the amount of slack being reported by small firms.
Posted by:
sexpiger |
February 16, 2014 at 04:27 PM
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