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Women's PRANA® AMANDA LONG SLEEVE TOP :: Feel blissfully comfortable post-workout or just parading around town in the stylish performance of the Prana® Amanda Long Sleeve Top. Get cozy with the lightweight comfort of this long sleeve top that'll give you a bit of added warmth and plenty of natural moisture-wicking thanks to the wool-blend fabric. Feel stylish, moving with ease in the roomy and fashionable dolman sleeve and relaxed fit, while loving the contrast stitching that adds even more appeal to this awesome Prana® long sleeve top!
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Adding a professionally focused website such as LinkedIn to your virtual networking is valuable.
- Filed Under
QUESTION:I have lots of friends on Facebook. They know I got laid off, and we stay in touch all the time. My nephew said I should setup a LinkedIn account because it is better for getting a job. Why is that?
ANSWER: Facebook and LinkedIn are two of the most popular online networking sites, and by using either you can discover new job opportunities. Facebook, however, is geared toward your personal life and LinkedIn is a business-oriented site.
So, just like a chance reunion at a social event, rekindling a friendship with, say, a former classmate you find on Facebook sometimes results in a job lead. But the ultimate success of any job hunt is greatly improved when you don't rely on luck happening and conduct a targeted search. This is where adding a professionally focused site to your virtual networking is valuable.
Here are some pointers to help you optimize your LinkedIn experience:
? While you are using the site to search for contacts and information about companies, remember you are also advertising yourself. It is smart to have your profile be a powerful marketing document that gets your message across quickly and avoids red flags.
? Include your picture; we humans are prone to assume if someone does not have one, they are hiding something. Seeing a smiling, professional looking you will make a much better impression whether you are a "mature worker" or starting your career.
? Avoid burning bridges when highlighting your accomplishments. For example, rather than writing a company was so poorly managed it was on the verge of closing before you came along, write you played an integral role in turning the company around.
? Ask for recommendations and display three or four. Always review everything you plan on posting for spelling and grammar mistakes. Whether something is written by you (or about you by someone else), they detract from your positive message.
? Make sure an invitation to connect is legit but don't reject it because it is from an individual you would not want to socialize with. You could miss out on having a contact who knows an employer looking to hire someone with your qualifications.
? Keep in mind even when networking sites are set to private, the pages you communicate on are not.

subset: commoncrawl


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The Information and Telecommunication Technology Center (ITTC) advances knowledge and creates innovative technologies in telecommunications, information systems, bioinformatics, and radar. We are one of the largest research centers at the University of Kansas, with our resources and state-of-the-art facilities supporting various multidisciplinary inquiries. ITTC-affiliated faculty members have served as federal program directors at NSF, DARPA, and NASA.
ITTC researchers are helping shape not only national policy but also the technology leaders of tomorrow. ITTC is committed to the continued growth and diversity of the State's economy. Under faculty guidance, our students conduct fundamental research and develop strategic solutions for Kansas companies and national industries.


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Frozen Tiramisu Squares Recipe
- 1cupBisquick baking mix
- 1/2cupsugar
- 1/3cupbaking cocoa
- 1tablespooninstant espressoor instant coffee granules
- 1/3cupmargarine or butter, melted
- 2 (8 ounce)packagescream cheese, softened
- 1 (14 ounce)cansweetened condensed milk
- 1/4cupfrozen orange juice concentrate, thawed
- 1teaspooninstant espressoor instant coffee granules
- 1/4cupchocolate syrup
- 1 1/2cupsheavy whipping cream
- baking cocoa, to sprinkle,for garnish
- Heat oven to 350*.
- Grease 13×9 baking pan.
- Mix Bisquick, sugar, cocoa, 1 tablespoon coffee and melted margarine until crumbly.
- Crumble into pan; bake 6 minutes.
- Set aside to cool.
- Beat cream cheese in medium mixing bowl with electric mixer until smooth.
- Gradually beat in condensed milk.
- Place about 2 cups of cream cheese mixture in separate bowl; add juice concentrate.
- Dissolve 1 teaspoon instant coffee/espresso in hot water; stir coffee mixture and chocolate syrup into OTHER cream cheese mixture.
- Beat whipping cream in chilled medium bowl on high speed until stiff.
- Fold half of whipped cream into each cream cheese mixture.
- Cover& refrigerate chocolate mixture; spoon orange mixture over cooled crust.
- Freeze crust with orange mixture about 1 hour.
- Spread chocolate mixture evenly over orange mixture; and freeze about 4 hours.
- Let stand 10 minutes at room temp before serving; sprinkle pan with baking cocoa, for garnish, if desired, and cut into squares.
- Store covered in freezer.
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When it comes to identifying trees, sometimes it's best to follow your nose! Confused? This podcast illustrates how all your senses are needed in order to identify trees in the winter months.
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On the basis of short term momentum with economic news, the effect of crude oil price on demand and supply and some decline in political tensions in Middle East, thus decreasing the political risk premium on risk neutral crude oil price, we expect crude oil prices to dip below U.S. $100 per barrel in Q2 2011, ending the quarter in the range between U.S. $90-$95 per barrel. As per our year start expectations, crude oil price forward has flattened to a large extent. We expect the market to go into normal backwardation by the end of 2011, which will be beneficial for funds like USO, which invests in front month rolling contracts and will be in position to take advantage from the positive roll yield. Please find below the effect of our assumptions on spare production capacity.
The world started the year with 6 million barrels per day spare capacity, which was pared down.
This added risk premium / discount on crude oil price (Chart 2). If the effect of any of the factors mentioned in chart 2 is reduced, it may reduce the risk premium on risk neutral price of U.S. $86 per barrel. If for example Middle East supply issues risk is completely taken out, it may reduce the premium by as large as U.S. $15 per barrel from current price by June 2011, taking crude oil price down to U.S. $ 95 per barrel.
1. Crude oil supply at risk: The largest part of the chart 2O is crude oil supply at risk which carries highest risk premium (chart 3O - the chart 6 showing our estimate of crude oil supply at risk from Middle East events). We consider Libya as the only oil producing country whose oil output may be out of market for some length of time. Algeria and Oman were possible candidates for possible oil output at risk and Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia as the countries where crude oil output may potentially be at risk. Please find the red columns in chart 6 for the portion of supply which is interrupted. Amber columns are the potential risk to crude oil supplies. Immediate level of risk is to the tune of 1.5 million barrels per day (Libya) which is 2% of global demand. If there is unrest in other parts of the Middle East / Nigeria, it can put additional supply at risk. If Algerian, Libyan and Oman supply is completely withheld, the market may face a deficit of +5% of global crude oil demand. In 1979, during the oil embargo, a 6% decrease in supply caused a four fold increase in crude oil price. We expect a decline in the GCC political risk as the situation in Bahrain, Oman and Yemen settles down. This may shift Saudi, world'd largest producer of crude oil, from amber to green and cause a decline in premium by U.S. $7-$10 per barrel. Further, a resumption of Libyan supplies will result in another decline of U.S. $3-$5 per barrel. Overall, the net effect may be negative U.S. $10 per barrel (Japan's marginal need, China's strategic reserves initiative and economic surprise being positive and decline in risk premium being negative for crude oil price). The crisis in Libya is likely to drag on. However, political risk in Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may decline by the end of Q2 2011. The combined effect of this will be a decline of risk perception in the world crude oil market. Risk premium of U.S. $15-$20 per barrel may decline to U.S. $5-$10 per barrel by the end of Q2 2011 (on the top of risk neutral crude oil price of U.S. $85-$90 per barrel). Marginal crude oil need of 0.5 -0.6 million barrels per day for reconstruction in Japan and substituting nuclear energy, which currently forms around 30% of Japan's electricity output, may keep U.S. $2-$3 per barrel of risk premium on crude oil price.
Click to enlarge charts
2. Improving economic fundamentals: The price of crude oil is closely related to macro economic news flows in an environment of tight supplies. The positive changes in these indicators (chart 7) drove crude oil price before social unrest erupted in the Middle East in late January 2011. Positive momentum in unemployment, retail sales, ISM, PMI, consumer confidence and payrolls may increase the market's expectation of crude oil demand and hence add more demand related crude oil risk premium to crude oil price until June 2011. Elevated crude oil prices have resulted in higher input costs as shown by OECD PPI. The lag between PPI and CPI could be three to six months. We may start seeing the effect of higher oil price on consumption at the end of Q1 2011 which may result in demand related risk premium and may end up in a demand risk discount. One of crude oil's key consumer indicators is U.S. gasoline demand use which was a negative demand surprise in the last DOE weekly data. Another data point which is likely to turn red is FHS reported billions of vehicle miles driven. Pre-Lehman, number of miles driven per capita per day is estimated to be 42 miles which when down to 32 miles by March 2009. It has recovered since then to 37 miles per capita per day (Chart 8). Higher crude oil price eats into net disposable income. Sentiment decline can lead to a drop in consumption which may stunt budding recovery and jobs growth by SME, which had been the growth engine in the last five economic recoveries. It is estimated that the market may have a premium of U.S. $3-$5 per barrel because of unanticipated demand for crude oil. This may decline and may even turn into a discount if global equity markets enter a correction.
Click to enlarge
3. China's economic growth is becoming increasingly dependent on meeting its rapidly growing demand for oil from both domestic supply and foreign imports. China's net crude imports in February totalled a record 23.1 million tons, or roughly 5.4 million barrels per day, and imports are expected to make up roughly 55% of its total oil consumption this year. A) Increasing oil demand is not only attributable to increased vehicle use in the world's largest new car market, but also to industrial activity in China. At current levels i) China PMI is still supportive of industrial activity (Chart 10), ii) China input purchase orders are increasing (chart 11), iii) New export orders are increasing (chart 9), iv) order back log and deliver delays are still high (chart 9). This may cause an upside in China demand, estimated at around 0.3 million barrels per day, which is higher compared to IEA, EIA, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse estimates. B) Notwithstanding the fact that China RRR and interest rate hikes have not drained liquidity from system, China's crude oil consumption is largely independent of BOC of policy stance. C) Electricity demand in China grew 22% in the first half of 2010. D) Last year China became the largest new automobile market in the world, and a recent International Energy Agency report suggests that China may now also be the top global energy consumer as well. E) In 2007, China announced an expansion of its crude reserves into a two-part system. Chinese reserves would consist of a government-controlled strategic reserve complemented by mandated commercial reserves. The government-controlled reserves are being completed in three phases. Phase one consisted of 102 million barrels, mostly completed by the end of 2008. The second phase of the government-controlled reserves with an additional 170 million barrels has to be completed by 2011. Recently, Zhang Guobao, the head of the China National Energy Administration, also stated that there will be a third phase that will expand reserves by 204 million barrels with the goal of increasing China's SPR to 90 days of supply by 2020. The planned state reserves of 476 million barrels plus the planned enterprise reserves of 209 million barrels will provide around 90 days of consumption or a total of 684 million barrels which implies a call of 0.4 million barrels per day on crude oil supplies. Only potential cause of concern can be higher level raw material and finished goods inventories (chart 12) but currently is mitigated by higher export orders, backlog and input purchases.
5. Effect of U.S. offshore drilling rules change on U.S. 2011 output: The U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) issued new rules for offshore drilling in Q3 2010. Those new rules are expected to raise the cost of drilling offshore, create delays in obtaining permits, and thus decrease oil production, even putting some small U.S. oil companies out of the offshore market. The result, of course, means more reliance on crude oil imports, most likely from OPEC. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts in its Short-Term Energy Outlook that domestic crude oil production will decline in 2011 after a modest increase in 2010. In 2009, U.S. oil production increased by 0.4 million barrels per day, and by only 0.1 million barrels per day in 2010, expected to be followed by a drop of 0.06 million barrels per day in 2011. The decline of 0.17 million barrels per day of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico in 2011 is partially made up by an increase of 0.130 million barrels per day in onshore production. Of the 170,000 barrels per day production decline in Gulf of Mexico waters, 82,000 barrels per day is due to the moratorium.
6. Spare production capacity: Crude oil spare production capacity (chart 13) had been closely correlated to crude oil price. In the times of economic expansion, spare production capacity decrease because of increases in crude oil demand. In recessions, crude oil spare production increases because of erosion of demand. However a decrease in spare production increases the drilling and marginal crude oil supplies become economical at higher crude oil prices. An increase in crude oil spare capacity reduces the E& P activity and reduces the marginal crude supplies at lower crude oil prices. Both factors tend to dampen the crude oil swings and also determine the price inflection points. The world's total spare production capacity is 5.4 million barrels per day. However, any increase in Libya oil output affects increases the spare production capacity by around 1 million barrels per day. If Iraq's oil production is jeopardized, it reduces the spare production capacity even further to 0.7 million barrels per day. In case the Saudi Eastern region, where Shia make a significant part of the population, is affected, that may create a crude oil deficit of 5 million barrels per day, which cannot be filled with any other available sources of crude oil supply. Higher GCC output "should keep prices from rising dramatically" (as IEA suggested) but it also pares down GCC spare production capacity which has had a close historic link to crude oil price jumps. Please find below a comparison of crude oil spare production and oil production at risk. Amber shows higher risk compared to yellow. According to above estimates, there is a an effective decrease in global crude supply capacity of around 1.7 million barrels per day and an increase in demand of around 2 million barrels per day, which results in a cumulative call of around 3.7 million barrels per day on world spare production capacity of 5 million barrels per day (EIA estimate), resulting in an effective spare production capacity of 1.3 million barrels per day. Last time spare production capacity was below 2 million barrels per day in 2008, crude oil price crossed U.S. $140 per barrel.
Click to enlarge
7. Trade-weighted U.S. dollar may weaken: i) Crude oil price is priced in U.S. dollars, which is facing cyclical and structural decline. We expect the trend to continue in Q2 2011, which may result in a further upside to crude oil price. ii) A revaluation of Yuan and interest rate hikes in the rest of world will make crude oil cheaper for the rest of the world which will increase its demand and price. iii) Crude oil has a negative feedback loop with the U.S. dollar. With increase in crude oil prices, U.S. trade deficit widens. As the U.S. already has a massive B/S expansion with unprecedented leverage, that may cause a hemorrhage of portfolio investors in U.S. debt and equities, which may create an additional call on the U.S. dollar. iv) Short term yield differential between EM, Euro and the U.S. dollar is likely to widen in H2 2011, which may create additional pressure on the U.S. dollar. This inexorable decline in the U.S. dollar will be supportive of crude oil price (chart 14).
Click to enlarge
8. Loose U.S. monetary policies may continue in Q2 2011, which is positive for commodity prices in general and for crude oil in particular, given that the U.S. is the world's largest consumer of crude oil. The ECB raised short term interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. There are expectations of further ECB tightening which should be slightly negative for crude oil demand in the euro area and crude oil prices (chart 17 and 18).
Click to enlarge charts
9. Paper barrels may remain intact in short term: Speculative investors reduced their long bets because of increasing unease about a hard landing in China and unease on abated fiscal expansion in the U.S. at the start of 2011. However, managed money funds and CPAs started increasing their crude oil positions after the Egyptian crisis in Q1 2011, as evidenced by the absolute number of managed money long contracts (paper barrels), total open interest, financially settled contracts and managed money long contracts as percent of total open interest.The funds and other large speculators increased net-long positions, or wagers on higher prices, by 27% in the seven days ended March 31 to 305,408 futures and options, the most on record dating back to June 2006, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report. As per CFTC's April 04 2011 report, managed money long contracts swelled to 0.2977 million against an all time high of 0.3 million and managed money short contracts dipped to 28,803 contracts against an all time low of 25,262 contracts. Total open interest in futures and options (1.567 million) crossed the previous all time high of 1.544 million contracts (Sept 18, 2007). From the world's largest managed commodity funds and commodity pools positioning and changes, it seems that long and total open interest in crude oil may remain intact for April and May 2011, which may support crude oil price (chart 20). Further, contango in NYMEX has declined. It is expected that the forward curve may flatten and may slightly turn negative by the end of 2011, which makes roll yield positive for front month future investors like USO. An increase in investment inflows in front month ETFs will result in upward pressure on crude oil price. However extreme levels of the total open interest and managed money positions is a recipe for a reversal. We expect a managed money position reversal by Mid May 2011.
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10. Refining margins, gasoline price and economics of refinery utilization: After outages for some of the refining facilities in Japan, 3:2:1 spread has widened despite high crude oil prices. Higher refining margins increases refiners' ROI and results in an increase in refinery utilization rates which are already touching the 89% level. This may create a call on global oil inventories, which may be positive for crude oil prices in short term (chart 21).
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1. Goldilocks crude oil price: Goldilocks crude oil price is the price which is sustainable and makes investment in marginal supply economical to the level where additional supply is balanced by increases in crude oil demand because of economic expansion. The estimate of goldilocks price is based on GDP energy sensitivity, crude oil supply response and potential substitution. Goldilocks price is estimated to be U.S. $96 per barrel which is risk neutral. On the basis of historical behavior of GDP growth and energy intensity of GDP, we have estimated that crude oil prices between U.S. $84-$94 / barrel do not cause a severe demand and supply reaction in an atmosphere of a slow economic recovery.
2. Effect of higher crude oil prices on demand: An important lesson from history is that energy prices matter a lot (chart 22). Before 1973, U.S. energy consumption appeared to be growing exponentially at a rate of 3.2% per year. Total U.S. energy consumption (measured in quadrillion BTU) grew rapidly until the oil price shocks at the end of 1973 and 1979. Consumption was fairly stable until the late 1980s but declined after that (chart 25). U.S. energy consumption by end use is shown in chart 24. Growth in all uses was rapid until the first oil price shock in 1973. After that, residential, commercial and transportation energy use has grown more slowly and industrial energy use has remained essentially constant (chart 24). Another impact is the higher crude oil prices on the U.S. trade deficit. The U.S. has contracted out much of its manufacturing to developing nations. The impact of higher oil prices will be more visible on American consumer behavior (gasoline). The gasoline segment, the largest product segment of crude oil (at 8 mbpd) is susceptible to higher crude oil prices. Higher crude oil prices may result in a demand reaction in the form of a decrease in total energy use as well as substitution of crude oil by other cheaper sources of energy. Gasoline, which accounts for 40% of U.S. oil use, If measured by billions of vehicle miles driven, has already started showing the effect of high pump prices (+3.5 U.S. $ per gallon) on number of miles driven per capita per day (chart 26). If crude oil prices stay elevated, it will result in a further increase in gasoline pump prices by the end of Q2 2011. That may result in stunting the upside in crude oil prices.
3. The latest BCA research (Dated March 29, 2011) and earlier research notes by Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse discounted the effect of oil shock on the global economic recovery, inflation, consumption, disposable income, corporate margins and consumer confidence. Goldman Sachs predicted a U.S. $200 per barrel crude oil price. We think that there is a lag between higher energy prices and the effect on consumption as energy forms around 30% of OECD consumer expenses. Crude oil prices have triggered recessions in +80% past instances (Chart below). In 2008, oil prices approached U.S. $150 per barrel. Shortly afterward, the global economy collapsed. There were, of course, other problems at the time – an imploding U.S. housing market, the beginnings of a securitization crisis, the collapse of Lehman Brothers – but events three years ago nevertheless offer plenty of evidence that substantial changes in oil prices are big news for the global economy. Events in 2008 simply confirmed a pattern seemingly in place since the 1970s. The chart shows the level of oil prices in real terms (adjusted using the U.S. consumer price index) tracked against U.S. recessions. Regular as clockwork, increases in oil prices of more than 100% lead to declining GDP. Although, we're not quite there this time around: oil prices would have to rise to U.S. $150 per barrel – a return to its 2008 peak - to have doubled in real terms. On the chart, there are some (modest) exceptions to the 100% rule of thumb: The 2008/09 recession (which merely supports the idea that oil was not the only, nor indeed the main, influence on events at the time), the 1991 recession (which was probably more affected by the credit crunch than by the temporary spike in oil prices following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait), and the 1987 experience, when real oil prices did indeed double but there was no recession. That doubling came from a very low level (oil prices had collapsed in 1986) and, although a recession was avoided, a stock market crash wasn't. The market may start anticipating the economic effect of elevated crude oil prices by end of Q2 2011. Although the full effect may become visible by the end of 2011, it will be negative for global equity markets and crude oil price as demand price premium will disappear from the trading price. It is unlikely that crude oil prices can sustain above U.S. $140 per barrel. Such a high price may cause a double dip and commodity prices will collapse as focus will shift to demand from supply.
4. Risk premium will decline in Q2 2011: Crude oil price is thought to be sum of risk neutral price and risk premium or discount. Investors put a risk premium at the top of risk neutral price if there is higher risk of market tightening and a risk discount if market faces prospect of loosening too much. Risk premiums and discounts can be estimated by options premiums and implied volatilities (COBE). This risk premium / discount can be related to spare production capacity. By June 2008, global crude oil spare production capacity has gone down to 2 million barrels per day. Risk premium in June 2008 was estimated at around U.S. $50 / barrel (crude oil price of U.S. $147 per barrel) (chart 29). In December 2008, global crude oil production capacity had expanded to 6 million barrels per day and the risk discount was estimated to be around U.S. $50 / barrel (crude oil price U.S. $34 per barrel). Our earlier statistical analysis suggested a risk neutral price of U.S. $84-$95 / barrel. From a non-parametric analysis it appears that risk neutral spare production capacity of 4 million barrels per day with a risk neutral price of U.S. $90 per barrel. In the case crude supply from North Africa is interrupted (chart 29A), this may decrease the crude oil spare production capacity to 2.4 million barrels per day. In that case, it may be fair to expect a risk premium of U.S $38 per barrel, which implies a crude oil price of U.S. $118 per barrel. On the other hand, if the global economic recovery keeps on track, around U.S $20 / barrel will be tacked at the top of crude oil price by the end of 2011, which implies a crude oil price of around US$100 / barrel. On one hand, if supply from Iraq is affected, it may erode the spare production capacity to almost none, which should add +U.S $70-80 per barrel to the risk neutral price, implying a crude oil price of U.S. $170 per barrel. In the case crude oil supply from Saudi Arabia is jeopardized, that may create a real panic in the market and the lid on the price may fly away. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil price ahead of U.S. $150 per barrel and possibly more than U.S. $120 barrel will create a worldwide tsunami of inflation, will decrease the disposable income and hence impact consumption, seriously affecting the companies' top line despite increase in prices. Further, because of the inability to pass 100% of inflation, the companies will feel the margin squeezes. This may create a serious confidence deficit which may bring the budding global economic activity to a halt. This will bring on another worldwide recession which may hit the developing, low to middle income countries first and hardest. This may create substantial uncertainty about global crude oil demand and will create a risk discount on crude oil price. If this demand uncertainty creates a potential discount of U.S. $40 per barrel, it will bring crude oil prices down to U.S. $40 per barrel. In the short term, the Middle East supply risk premium will decline from the current U.S. $15 per barrel to U.S. $5 per barrel as political discontent will decline in intensity with the advancing summer. Demand risk premium will decrease by U.S. $ 2-$3 per barrel as marginal crude oil demand will be counter balanced by a decline in U.S. consumption (FHA's miles driven will decrease with an increase in gasoline price to U.S. $4 per gallon). However we will like to watch the economic response to an oil shock before assigning any discount to crude oil price in Q3 / Q4 2011.
Click to enlarge
5. Substitution of crude oil by coal and natural gas: Higher crude oil price may result in substitution of crude oil by other sources of energy like natural gas, coal and nuclear energy. Simply rising NG and coal consumption offset what was at the minimum optimization of oil consumption to the transport sector if not an outright decline. We may also see a shift in a portion of fuel oil based U.S. electric generation to natural gas. This may save 1.8-2 million barrels per day of crude oil used for furl oil based electric generation. Any shift of transportation from gasoline to natural gas may further decrease crude oil and product demand with higher crude oil prices. The case for substitution may become even more compelling when seen in the light of oil equivalent price of coal (U.S. $26.4 per barrels of oil equivalent – U.S. $129 / ton) and natural gas (U.S. $24.2 per barrel of oil equivalent – U.S. $4.09 /mmbtu). This has happened before as during previous oil shocks as use of crude oil as percentage of U.S. energy use slid from 43.4% to as low as 40.5%. If crude oil price remains elevated, crude oil use may decline below 42% of U.S. energy use in Q3 / Q4 2011, which is equivalent to a decline of +3 million barrels per day of world crude oil demand (chart 30). This will result in a demand risk discount if U.S. $20 per barrel (charts 1 and 2). Conservative estimates of EU / US / Japan and China GDP / crude oil consumption (i.e. increasing) and higher crude oil substitution flexibility to crude oil price may result in a decline in crude oil price.
Click to enlarge
6. Draining global liquidity: i) Euro tightening and the future of QEII in the U.S.: One of the risks is discontinuation of QE2, which is running out in June 2011. It is expected that the interest rate will remain low for a longer period of time (more than the markets' expectation ... meaning probably through 2012 instead of 2011). Such policy typically should further weaken the U.S. dollar, while artificially pushing up prices of dollar-denominated commodities such as crude oil. However, a drain of liquidity in H2 2011 may be negative for crude oil prices. On the other hand ECB interest rate hikes should be negative for crude oil prices. ii) Fiscal and monetary tightening in China and East Asia: China needs to raise interest rates far more aggressively to curb inflation, given existing excess liquidity. Although the government has implemented a series of measures, including increasing interest rates, RRR and raising margins for certain commodity futures, the impacts on inflation are not significant. Although crude oil consumption in China is less sensitive to oil shocks because of lower per capita use, interest rate hikes can be negative for crude oil price in short term (chart 35).
Click to enlarge
7. Oil inventories may cover short term interruption: We feel that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories are sufficient to fill up any short term interruption. The inventories are still higher than the five year average. We expect a gradual draw down in the coming six months (chart 37).
Click to enlarge
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.


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The Trade
( Originally Published 1916 )
THE printing and publishing business stands sixth among the industries of the United States, being exceeded in output only by meat-packing, foundries and machine shops, lumber, iron and steel and the production of flour and meal. It supports underlying industries of much importance, the first of which, of course, is print paper, having a round annual value of $90,000,000 the manufacture of presses and other forms of machinery, of ink and type, and pays the highest average standard of wages to be found in any form of employment.
It remains an independent industry, its very nature forbidding combinations of any extent, and providing the most intense form of competition. Its chief product, the daily newspaper, sells at a price, fixed, as a rule, by one or two of the smallest coins in the republic. That no publisher purveys his product for less than one cent is due only to the failure of the mint to supply a fraction! It has thriven without the help of tariffs or of any support other than that derived from the direct appeal to the public, which yearly grows more appreciative of the services performed and of the value of the press. as an informant, educator and sup-porter of popular rights !
The newspaper publisher is quite out of the line of ordinary business. He does not " take that which was thine and make it mine " for a profit. He does no merchandising, but must produce from the start. He must be a creator and a seller, but not a trafficker. Moreover, he deals in the most elusive and perplexing of all articles—News ! The merchant can figure on his values and his costs ; he can reckon his profits with a degree of safety and to an extent lean upon the market. At least his wares are salable to-morrow, if not to-day. But the news-able and does not know up to the hour of going to press what his wares are to be ! If he fails, to make a true estimate of news values he loses and success goes to the man who can. He cannot have relations with other lines of trade and keep his paper strong in the public esteem. A demagogic propaganda now and then starts out with cries against the " capitalistic press " when 'there can be no such thing, by the very nature of the business. One newspaper cannot hide what another prints and remain fair in the pubic eye. More than once have " interests tried to bolster up a waning sheet, only to complete its doom. A successful newspaper creates its own capital: no capital " as such can save an unsuccessful one. A newspaper with money and no soul is a foreordained failure. Examples could be cited in proof but this would be invidious. The other side can be put in evidence without offence. James Gordon Bennett started the Herald with $500 and in fifteen months had a property which he proudly valued at $5000. The New York World struggled for nearly a quarter of a century, until Joseph _Pulitzer took it from the burdened hands of Jay Gould, May 10, 1883, and gave journalism a new message :
The entire World newspaper property has been purchased by the undersigned, and will, from this day on, be under different management—different in men, measures and methods; different in purpose, policy and principle, different in objects and interests ; different in sympathies and convictions; different in head and heart.
Performance is better than promise. Exuberant assurances are cheap. I make none. I simply refer the public to the new World itself, which henceforth shall be the daily evidence of its own growing improvement, with forty-eight daily witnesses in its forty-eight columns.
"There is room in this great and growing bright ; not only bright, but large ; not only large, but truly democratic, dedicated to the Cause of the people rather than that of purse-potentates, devoted more to the news of the New than the Old World; that will expose all fraud and sham, fight all public evils and abuses ; that will serve and battle for the people with earnest sincerity.
" In that cause and for that end solely the new World is hereby enlisted and committed to the attention of the intelligent public."
Here was a code of journalism, struck off at white heat, almost at the midnight hour as the forms were closing for the first issue of the new World. The paper became profit-able from that moment Mr. Pulitzer had previously combined two staggering St. Louis evening papers, the Dispatch and the Post., twenty-four hours after he had purchased the former, and success followed from the day of the union. When he bought the Dispatch he figured that he had money enough to run it for fifteen weeks! The great San Francisco Chronicle was founded without money as a theatrical program a little more than fifty years ago by two boys, Charles and M. H. De Young. It literally made itself by exhibitions of extraordinary energy and enterprise. For a later example we have the Seattle Times, picked up for a trifle, by Alden J. Blethen, a maker of successful newspapers in Kansas City and Minneapolis, but then " down and out," and well past his fiftieth year ! In magic time it was changed from a burden to one of the most profitable publications of the day. The newspapers mentioned were not made by patient upbuildmg like a select few, but by dash and vigor, by pushing their ideas and energies into the field and conquering.
There are more than 22,000 newspapers and periodical establishments in the United States. The business has become stabilized to a degree but none the less continues to stand itself apart in a class by itself. News-papers are not " capitalized " and their shares distributed via Wall Street. It is the business of the individual, with all the fascination and opportunity that individualism implies and affords.
A witness before a Congressional Committee investigating the cost of white paper, was asked : " Do you run your newspapers for benevolent purposes or as business propositions? "
" Most newspapers," was the reply, " are run by gentlemen who have sporting blood—different from the conductors of any other enterprise. They are all very much alike. They take all sorts of chances and do things that would make ordinary business men shiver."
This pretty well describes the successful newspaper maker. He is not governed by rules. He must meet conditions as they arise, without counting cost or figuring profits. If he is bold enough and sanguine enough for this he can succeed. It is the temperament that tells ! It is this liberal and adventurous disposition that rallies other men and leads to the formation of a working force impelled by the same instincts and these become irresistible in the field.
Percentages of profit in newspaper making vary greatly according to the size of out-put and the proportion of loss from circulation. that must be charged against advertising revenue. It can be established, though, that in a community where newspapers are managed with skill and energy, there will be a return to the papers of the town, of about $1.00 per inhabitant. This does not mean such a return to each publication, but total sum which the population will give up to newspaper profit. That is to say, a city of 100,000 people ought to afford $100,000 in net return to be divided among the papers of the town. This can happen in a place where there are one or more losing propositions. Where the papers are earning this sum per inhabitant it is safe to say a new-comer will have a hard time, but more than once exceptional talent has taken over a losing sheet and exacted its share.
Money is earned, not " made " in the newspaper trade. The business cannot be " run " by boards and councils. It must succeed by innate energy on the part of men on the spot. To decide upon policy by the side of the " form" is something beyond the ability of boards of directors. On a ship, the rule is to obey the last order, no matter what rank may be held by the man who gives it. So in a newspaper office where events are dealt with. They control, but there must be talent present, capable of dealing with events and making the most of them !
Partisanship no longer plays any important part in newspaper success. Indeed, the party paper in cities of size is usually a sad affair. The city papers securing the most success are those of the independent Democratic type. Cities are usually Democratic, but the party idea is hardly apparent in the rule. It is due to freer expression and an utter refusal to tie up to the fortunes of any party or man. Quite often these papers are in revolt against the party organization with benefit to themselves and the community. For striking examples of this rule we have the Globe and Post, in Boston; the World, Times and Evening Post in New York; the Record in Philadelphia; the Plain Dealer in Cleveland; the Post-Dispatch in St. Louis and the Examiner in San Francisco. In Chicago, the Tribune, while nominally Republican, has a long record as an antiprotectionist and of opposition to party. It also enjoys conspicuous prosperity.
Some survivals of the early days had an interesting parentage. The daily Eastern Argus, of Portland, Maine, the oldest newspaper in New England east of the Connecti cut River, was founded in 1803 by Nathaniel Willis, father of N. P. Willis, poet and editor of the New York Mirror. He established also the Congregationalist, first named the Recorder, and the Youth's Companion, of' Boston, interesting progeny, and lusty after all these years!


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1500kg Foot operated hydraulic unit. Quicker and easier than using ratchet driven spring compressor. Plastic coated yokes reduce the risk of spring slippage or damage and are suitable for springs from Dia.102mm to Dia.160mm.
Sealey are one of Europes largest tool and equipment brands with nearly 8000 products available from its extensive catalogue. Sealeys products are backed by an excellent 12 month guarantee and their hand tools benefit from a lifetime warranty, giving purchasers added peace of mind.
This family owned company have huge stocks and can deliver pretty much anywhere in the country the next day on a premium service.
Sealey are big on service and their parts service is second to none. Currently with over 130,000 different parts in stock, Sealey can supply parts for all their products from a circlip to a compressor tank, generally from stock check Sealeys website for their on-line instructions and parts lists.
All the tools you need.


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Cauliflower with Ginger and Onion Seeds
Here is another cauliflower recipe. As I have mentioned many times my husband loves this vegetable- love is not the right adjective- usually if I call him at work to tell him I have made cauliflower, 9 out of 10 times he comes early- no kidding! Well, I decided to make him cauliflower the other day- it had been a while. I of course, wanted to come up with a new recipe to post on this blog- he on the other hand, does not care if I serve the same preparation every time. I was thinking of the cauliflower preparation one usually gets at Indian weddings or at a halwaee's shop. A halwaee is someone who runs a road side restaurant in India and serves sweets and fried foods, it's usually all vegetarian. The cauliflower I am thinking of is usually fried and then cooked with onions and some dried spices. It's delicious but full of fat! I decided to replicate it using my broiler. I coated the cauliflower and potatoes with some extra light olive oil and salt and placed them under the broiler. The golden brown vegetables looked like they were lightly fried- perfect. I then added a mixture of cumin, onion(kalonji) and fennel seeds- this mixture reminds me of pickled vegetables and fruits. Indian pickles are usually have a mixture of fennel and onion(kalonji) seeds. I added an onion and ginger to the mix and then cooked it with the browned vegetables. The result was a delicious mixture of cauliflower and potatoes with a light pickle flavor which I love. My husband enjoyed it but like I said, it doesn't matter to him how the cauliflower is cooked as long as it is there!
- 1 cauliflower head, cut into florets
- 3 to 4 potatoes cut into 3 inch pieces
- 2 tablespoons extra light olive oil
- Salt
Place the cauliflower florets and potatoes on a lined cookie sheet. Drizzle oil and sprinkle salt all over. Broil till golden brown, about 10 to 15 minutes. Take out and keep aside.
- 1 tablespoon extra light olive oil
- 1 teaspoon cumin seeds
- 1 teaspoon fennel seeds
- 1 teaspoon onion (kalonji) seeds
- 1 medium white onion, sliced
- One 3 inch piece of ginger, sliced thin
- Salt to taste
- 1 teaspoon turmeric
- ½ teaspoon cayenne pepper
- 2 teaspoons garam masala
In a wok like saucepan, heat the olive oil. Add the cumin, fennel and onion seeds. Saute for a minute on medium heat till the sees begin to sizzle. Add the onion and ginger. Saute for 4-5 minutes stirring constantly. Add the broiled cauliflower and potatoes. Add the salt, turmeric and cayenne pepper. Mix well and cover with lid. Cook for 10-15 minutes or till the potatoes are soft. Uncover and increase the heat. Add the garam masala and stir well. Check for seasonings.


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Coyote Towing LLC in Phoenix, AZ is a towing and roadside assistance company offering Local and Long Distance service throughout the Phoenix metro area and beyond. We are a locally owned business and are happy to provide references upon request. Our company is insured for your protection.
At Coyote Towing LLC, our experienced truck operators get to you quickly in any emergency situation. Whether you've been in a car accident or need roadside assistance, Coyote Towing LLC will come to your rescue. Call us today to see why you will want to keep our number handy and recommend us to your friends and family.
Check out our services page now for more information.
Now hiring drivers. Family owned and operated. Contact Us TODAY for further information: 602-268-3448.


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Columbia, SC (WLTX) - On Friday, Hammond Lower School students were able to see their two-dimensional artwork transformed into the third dimension, thanks to 3D printing technology.
Students painted pictures of the Hammond School mascot, Henry the Hawk, and then a company called DoodleSculpt was able to use 3D technology to make those paintings come to life by way of a sculpture.
This technology is already used for practical reasons byt the military, NASA and Boeing; however, John Carrington, Co-founder and CEO of DoodleSculpt, says the company is the first business to consumer 3D Print company in South Carolina.
"Right now we are at the very front edge of 3-D printing technology the same way the internet was in the early 90's," said Carrington. "I think you're going to see incredible advancement of this technology over the next five to ten years. It's truly a category unto itself... the same was the internet was."
DoodleSculpt will soon be expanding its presence throughout Columbia, Charleston and Charlotte.
For more information about DoodleSculpt, click here.


text: The sound from the MPS-70 is tuned for your Sony Ericsson music phone while the cables are an FM antenna for radio. All you have to do is find good music. They look good, fit in your pocket and you'll be amazed at the great sound they produce. The perfectly easy way to play the music on your phone out loud.


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Wasted Time by GryffindorsHeir
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 9]
Summary: Hermione and Draco have been living together for a few years now. Everything started off fine, but now Hermione feels that Draco is distancing himself from her.
One-Shot Song Fic
What Became of Him by cutiepoet
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 9]
Summary: The war is over....friends have passed on.....Can Harry find it in him to live his life after all of his loved ones are gone?
Please read and review
Wish Upon a Dog Star by Kerichi
Rated: 6th-7th Years [Reviews - 17]
She was stuck with limp, mousey brown hair.
Tonks didnt scream the way she once would have. Instead, she felt bleak satisfaction. This is what grief looks like, she thought. It isnt pretty.
Tonks' trouble with her Metamorphosing? It's complicated.
Where Souls Linger by Lalalalatina
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 4]
Summary: Where souls linger, and ghosts do dwell,
'Tis where our greatest heroes fell.
About the Final Battle, the enemies, the heroes, those who lost their lives, and those who lived but must learn to move on.
I am Lalalalatina of Hufflepuff and this is my entry into the Poetry Anyone? monthly challenge for June- The Rondeau Challenge.
We All Fall Down by coppercurls
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 4]
Summary: A Rondeau poem about fighting the losing battle.
"Nevertheless, Harry, while you may only have delayed his return to power, it will take someone else who is prepared to fight what seems a losing battle next time -- and if he is delayed again, and again, why he many never return to power." Sorcerer's Stone, p298
By coppercurls of Hufflpuff house for the rondeau poetry challenge.
What Harry never Said by Will_the_Ranger
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 4]
Summary: As Harry stares death in the face, he writes Ginny one last letter, one he may never send.
As the storm finally breaks,
And the darkness kills the light,
I wish that I were not alone,
As I enter the final fight.
R&R! All reveiws wiil be answered!
What Ill Hath Heaven Sent by GryffindorGoddess
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 4]
Summary: Harry's reflections on the woe wrought by the death of his two friends and his vow to avenge their deaths, in the form of a Shakespearean monologue.
Whisper Slowly to Me by Morbid_Madness
Rated: 6th-7th Years [Reviews - 18]
Summary: It all started with a few simple whispers at night, then appearances of people no one but he could see.
In Harry Potters fifth year, people believed him mad because he believed Voldemort had returned. In his seventh year, people think hes insane again. And this time, Harry isnt arguing.
About the 'Suicide' warning: Attempt at suicide only. This is just put up in case this topic offends you.
Update: So many people liked this story and asked for a sequel. Well, it's in the process! Keep a lookout for it!
When Twilight Falls by GryffindorGoddess
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 2]
Summary: A Villanelle-ish poem regarding the epic battle between Harry and Voldemort.
Weasels and Otters by beauty and brains
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 25]
Summary: As Ron tries out his hand at Patronuses during the last D.A. meeting, a memory comes to mind that still brings a smile to his face.
I am beauty and brains of Gryffindor for the June One-Shot Challenge.
Worthless by crazy_purple_hp_freak
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 6]
Summary: A young Draco Malfoy learns that he must pay a hefty price for curiosity.
When the World Stops Spinning it Falls into Shards by coppercurls
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 3]
Summary: A missing moment during HBP. Minerva has had to be strong for others in the few hectic hours after Dumbledore's death. But can she be strong enough for herself, after that?
Why Potter? by JaneA
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 66]
Summary: As the Marauders enter their seventh year, James has one goal: to get Lily Evans. Lily is just trying to stay away from him. Remus and Sirius are coming out with a plan. Will they all get what they want, or will they get back something completely unexpected?
Chapter seven is up!
Why Couldn't the Good Times Last? by FredsFriend
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 24]
Summary: Note: The title of this story was recently changed from A Story of the Four to the current title.
So you know all about Harry. Every person he's ever met. Every secret he's ever had. Every girl he's ever dated. And almost every word he's ever said. But what do you know about the generation before him? About Sirius Black and James Potter? Let's go back...to the era of the Marauders.
It's 1969, Sirius Black is about to begin his first year at Hogwarts...and this is where his story begins.
Summary: On Regulus and Orion Black and,
How the whispers of past shape the future.
And none of them notice as the stranger turns away from the luminous skull and snake, and begins walking the other way, his soft sigh of a word lost in the whisper of the falling snow.
Will they get it back? by honeydukes6
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 1]
Summary: Ron and Hermione forgot about love. But life without love is exhausting. Will they get it back?
What is One Picture Worth? by lucilla_pauie
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 14]
Summary: A honeymoon gone awry...A wedding portrait gone blotchy...
The honeymoon going awry led to the portrait going blotchy and the portrait going blotchy could lead to the honeymoon going very awry!What's a witch to do except perhaps travel time, to save the portrait and the honeymoon?
Hermione meets the master of Time-turners, however, and gets much much more than she bargained for...This is LucillaJoanna of Hufflepuff, traversing A Shift In Time in the Spring Challenges...
...and won Second Place!
Welcome, The Darkness Infused by Prophecies
Rated: 6th-7th Years [Reviews - 16]
Summary: Harry Potter has always been unusual. But how unusual will he become when a brutal massacre at Bill and Fleur's wedding leaves him simmering with rage and revenge? Confronted with a darker side of himself and with unlikely allies, what's going to be next? Follow him while he deals with the ever growing threat of a world full of despair and darkness, and his quest to conquer the Dark Lord. Book 7 fic, HBP compliant.
We All Fall Down by _Ivy_
Rated: 3rd-5th Years [Reviews - 13]
Summary: A dark poem about the Second War and the horrors within. This is a slightly darker version of 'Ring Around The Rosies'.
Wizarding Tales for Bedtime by Roxy Black
Rated: 1st-2nd Years [Reviews - 24]
Summary: When Ron and Hermione expect their first child, Ron searches for his childhood book of fairy tales.
This story is a collection of the finest Muggle fairytales, lovingly rewritten and retold to appeal to Wizarding children world-wide. Please note these tales were written before the release of Deathly Hallows. As such, the idea of Wizarding Fairy Tales was original at the time of writing. I must say that I was extremely excited to find Jo writing her own in the new book. (Though it was my idea first ;p )


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Lithuania, Republic of, a country in eastern Europe. It is bordered by Latvia, Belarus, Poland, Russia, and the Baltic Sea.
Glaciers formed most of Lithuania's physical features during the last ice age. The surface is generally flat and low. Glacial hills rise gradually to more than 900 feet (270 m) above sea level in the east. Peat bogs and small glacial lakes dot parts of the land. Sand dunes are numerous along the coast.
The Neman (or Nemunas) is the country's principal river. It flows from Belarus and empties into Kurskiy Bay. The lower part of the river is navigable.
Because of the sea's tempering influence, Lithuania's climate is moderately continental. Winters are cold and summers are cool—average temperatures being near 19° F. (-7° C.) in January and 63° F. (17° C.) in July. Precipitation varies from 20 to 24 inches (510 to 610 mm) a year.
|Facts in brief about Lithuania
|Capital: Vilnius.
|Official language: Lithuanian.
|Official name: Lietuvos Respublika (Republic of Lithuania).
|Area: 25,212 mi2 (65,300 km2). Greatest distances—north-south, 175 mi. (280 km); east-west, 235 mi (375 km).
|Elevation: Highest—Juozapines (hill), 958 ft (292 m). Lowest—sea level along the coast.
|Population: Current estimate—3,374,000; density, 134 per mi2 (52 per km2); distribution, 67 percent urban, 33 percent rural. 2001 census—3,483,972.
|Chief products: Agriculture—beef cattle, dairy products, hogs. Manufacturing—chemicals, electrical equipment, electronic products, fabricated metal products, machinery, processed foods, textiles, wood products.
|Flag and cost of arms: Lithuania's flag has three horizontal stripes. The yellow stripe stands for fields of ripening grain. The green stripe represents Lithuania's evergreen forests. The red stripe represents the blood shed for freedom. Lithuania's coat of arms features a knight on a white horse on a red background.
|Money: Basic unit—litas. One hundred centas equal one litas.
In the mid-20th century Lithuania's economy was primarily agricultural. Much industrialization has occurred since then. Agriculture and manufacturing are now the main economic activities.
When Lithuania was a part of the Soviet Union (1940-91), agriculture was organized into a system of state and collective farms. After Lithuania achieved independence, the government began to transfer ownership of farms to private groups and individuals. Main crops include rye, barley, wheat, potatoes, sugar beets, and flax. Dairy farming is one of the nation's main agricultural activities. Hogs are raised in large numbers.
Manufacturing is centered primarily in Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda, Siauliai, and Panevezys. Among the chief manufactured products are machinery, machine tools, precision instruments, home appliances, chemicals, paper, plastics, and textiles. The shipping, woodworking, electronics, and food-processing industries are also important. Lithuania is especially noted for its production of meat and dairy products.
Deep-sea fishing, mainly in the Atlantic Ocean, has made Klaipeda a significant fishing port. Part of the Baltic coast has been developed as a seaside resort.
Rail and road transportation are well developed; trains and buses provide most of the transit service in the country. There are airports at Vilnius, Kaunas, and Klaipeda. Klaipeda is Lithuania's only seaport.
About 80 per cent of the people are Lithuanians, a Baltic people akin to the Letts of Latvia. Russians and Poles are the next largest groups. Vilnius is the capital and largest city. Other major cities are Kaunas, and Klaipeda.
The chief language is Lithuanian, one of the oldest languages in Europe. Roman Catholicism is the predominant religion; other faiths include the Lutheran and the Eastern Orthodox. Education is compulsory and is free at all levels. Nearly all the people are literate. Chief among the institutions of higher learning is Vilnius V. Kapsukas State University. Lithuania also has a number of technical, music, art, teacher-training, and agricultural schools and colleges.
Under the constitution of 1992, Lithuania is a parliamentary democracy with a president elected by the people. The president is the head of state. The Seimas is a one-house legislature made up of 141 members. The prime minister, who is the head of government, is appointed by the president with the approval of the Seimas.


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Whitman Mission National Historic Site, 328 Whitman Mission Road, will offer hands-on training on how to start a fire without matches or a lighter from 1-4 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.
In the past, starting a fire was a necessary survival skill. Visitors of all ages can try creating those necessary sparks using a flint and steel. Adventurous individuals can try their hand at using flint, steel striker, char-cloth and tinder to actually start a fire. The action takes place directly behind the Visitor Center.
A visitor to the park may view a 10-minute slide show, visit the museum and take a self-guided tour of the mission grounds. The grounds include the original building locations, Great Grave, Whitman Memorial and re-constructed Oregon Trail ruts. Ranger walks are presented daily at 11:15 a.m. A complete list of this summer's special events can be found at the park's website: www.nps.gov/whmi.
Whitman Mission is open seven days a week. The Visitor Center is open 8 a.m.-6 p.m. The park grounds are open until dark.
The entrance fee is $3 for adults; children under 16 are free. An annual pass good for a whole family is available for $10. Senior passes and other federal passes are honored.
Visitor information may be obtained any time by calling 509-529-2761 or by visiting the park website at www.nps.gov/whmi.
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Every reader worth their salt has got a favorite book shop.
For me, it's Readmore Books here in Taunton. I've been going there for as long as I've been able to read, and my mother has been a customer there since before I was born. It's a proper shop, with books old and new, and fantastically creaky floorboards. And it's got great Book Smell--don't pretend you don't know how wonderful Book Smell is. The staff is friendly and helpful to boot. If you're having trouble finding a book, they will even find it or order it for you. With so many Big Guys trying to change their approach to customer service so that every customer feels like they're at a small business, why not just go to a small business? Readmore is local. It's our place.
Readmore is my Book Central Station, but I'm also up for exploring other establishments whenever I travel. No matter where one is, contentment can be found in a good book shop.
Not long ago, there was an article in Yankee magazine about great New England book shops. One in particular caught my eye:
The Shire Book Shop, in Franklin, Massachusetts.
Yes, it was the name that drew me in, but I found myself equally charmed by the description: stacks and stacks of books on every subject, cozy old armchairs at every turn, and a nice cup of tea to make your browsing that much more enjoyable.
Last week, my mother and I went to The Shire (you bet it's fun saying that, every single time) and it was just what I had read of and imagined it to be.
If Bilbo Baggins ran a book shop, this would be the one.
We got lost in the stacks for a good while, and Mom found herself a few nice volumes, including a book of photographs of historic sites in Great Britain which we've both ended up enjoying very much.
As for myself, I got some lovely editions of a few classics.
First off is Sir Walter Scott's Waverly, chosen in all honesty because I know he was a great favorite of Jane Austen's. When he began writing novels in addition to poetry, she told her sister that it was unfair because no one could possibly compete with him.
I also procured a book of poems by Yeats. I'm usually a staunch novel reader, but sometimes only poetry will do. I also picked up a copy of Ovid's Ars Amatoria (The Art of Love). Classical notions and ideals of love are actually quite interesting (I spent more than a year with this stuff working on my thesis. It's in my blood now. Really.). I encourage my readers to look into it, especially when it comes to the later Renaissance poets who were inspired by these ideas. Petrarch is a good place to start, for those who are curious.
All three of these books are older, leatherbound editions. You can't get that kind of style from an e-reader.
So I encourage you to add The Shire to your list of bookish pursuits. The Shire Book Shop is located in Franklin, MA at 305 Union Street. Just take 495, get off at Exit 16, bear right, go left at the lights, and continue on down the road. The Shire will be on the left.
Happy exploring and reading!


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Clinical Academic Training Programme
Professor Danny McAuley, Director of the Clinical Academic Training Programme
Welcome to the Northern Ireland Clinical Academic Training Programme at Queen's University. Trainees at Academic F2, ACF, PhD and ACL level, profiled below, work within a range of disciplines: medical and surgical, laboratory, general practice and public health. All academic trainees are attached to an internationally recognised clinical investigator in one of the four Research Centres or Centre for Medical Education, which provides opportunity to experience cutting edge clinical and laboratory research. Research opportunities for medical students include intercalated degrees and summer studentships. All our trainees have presented at national and international meetings and written up their work for publication in peer reviewed journals. The Clinical Academic Training Programme, as outlined in our Clinical Academic Training Guide - Investigate Further, offers opportunities at different levels to experience high quality research and prepare for a future career in research. We hope you will consider applying for this scheme and participating in world leading research at Queens.


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This is a UX conference with a difference
We bring engaging industry leaders from around the world to present a combination of inspirational talks and lively, hands-on workshops.
Influential speakers
Learn from the authors, founders, directors and designers - working at companies like Google, Lego, Cooper and IDEO - who are helping push the industry forward.
Speakers include
Designer and author of 'Information Architecture'
Managing Principal at Fit Associates
Information Architect
Co founder of Mule Design and author of 'Just Enough Research'
Tailored to you
Each day of the conference focusses on a specific area of UX. Our flexible ticket structure lets you immerse yourself in the whole event, or just the days most relevant to you.
Design Strategy
Day One focuses on the intersection of Design Thinking and Business Strategy. Be inspired by leaders and strategic thinkers who tackle big problems and delivering meaningful experiences at scale.
Product Design
On Day Two we turn our attention to the product world. As the network becomes more and more embedded in our daily lives, learn how the world's most progressive product teams are facing the increasing complexity of design challenges.
Design Practice
For Day Three, we return to our craft. Gain unique insight from the industry's leading researchers, practitioners and makers to finish the event armed with a set of powerful new tools and techniques.
Incredible venue
Join us at an amazing space. Trinity Laban is the perfect place to unlock your creativity.
Don't just take our word for it
I came. I listened. I stayed. Great event, great speakers, great crowd, great venue. Learn, network. enjoy
A killer combo of program and networking; my mind is still buzzing
A big 'ol CONGRATS to @UXLondon for a great conference; honored to be a part of the experience!
Thanks again to @clearleft and crew for organizing one of the best conferences I have been to in a long time! #uxlondon
Brilliant, brilliant day of talks at @UXLondon then a @GoogleDesign workshop in the afternoon. Inspired.
Thanks for the past few days @UXLondon. Great event, great location, great beer! #GoldenRod @BeerLeft @clearleft @TrinityLaban


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©2015 General Mills, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This information will only be used to send an email to your friend(s) and will not be saved. Please read our Privacy Policy
Because Julekake is one of our most requested recipes, we knew you'd love a version you could make in your bread machine.
Candied fruit and cardamom are the signature traditional ingredients in this Norwegian classic. Cardamom (KAR-duh-muhm), a member of the ginger family, has a pungent, warm, spicy and slight lemony-sweet flavor. It's used extensively in Scandinavian and East Indian cooking. Look for ground cardamom in the spices and herbs section of your store.
© 2015 ®/TM General Mills All Rights Reserved


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You may not have seen me around much over the last year or so, but I've been researching hundreds of clickbank products, only to find out that it's all the same stuff.
Yes, sometimes you'll find some "automated" software that's new to the market, but without the basic knowledge I'm about to show you here, they "won't work" for you.
I've also learned some tips and tricks from million dollar a year plus Internet Marketers. I'm going to share that with you as well.
What you'll find inside...
I'll show you how to narrow down a niche, to get the most buyers to your site.
Your domain choice is very important when getting traffic.
GREAT company... GREAT Support.
Step by step instruction - nothing left out!
Easier than you think - just copy and paste!
This is the 2nd most important part... building a list of subscribers that will hang on your every word!
The "ethical bribe" you'll use to entice people to sign up to your list.
Again... just copy and paste!
The crux of your monetization - to let people get to know you, and then buy from you!
I'll go over several ways of getting traffic, one you may not have even heard of!


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DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Prescription tracking system illegally accessed, officials say
Prescription tracking system illegally accessed, officials say
I am really not sure where the problem originated by the UB article, but I do know that "Professionals" really need to guard those DEA numbers judiciously. I am delighted that Walla Walla's pharmacists still use the old phone/fax to notify mds of 'irregularities' or concerns as any PROFESSIONAL should. The "state" has a history of being lousy at monitoring 'irregularities'. I sincerely hope that every one of the 34 victims sue the provider/perpetrator or if indicated, the software developer.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Is Walla Walla really the friendliest city?
Is Walla Walla really the friendliest city?
The owner of the store can petition the United States Supreme Court! The store owner lost his case in the local and Appellate courts. The Washington State Supreme Court said they would not hear the case. Why did these meanies say this?? Ask the kids in Government class if you really wonder. We vote the legal minds we hire (elect) in and we can vote them out. If this octopus issue is more important to you than the local crime, homelessness, mental illness, job issues hammering our beautiful town: Plan on campaigning against all those folks that the grown up voters put into the position to "Judge" on our behalf.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Mastro and wife arrested in France
Mastro and wife arrested in France
"Like": At least an attempt has been made to seek justice for those big and little people who are owed money.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Youthful Walla Walla activist wins national acclaim
Youthful Walla Walla activist wins national acclaim
Allison, your dedication to making a difference in our world is inspiring.Congratulations for a job well done!
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Man arrested on warrant after alleged attempts to buy gun
Man arrested on warrant after alleged attempts to buy gun
I think more felons (with warrants) should attend events where local law enforcement officers tend to congregate. For our officers it is so... convenient.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on U-B endorsements criticized
U-B endorsements criticized
Tip: Before you vote: Look for financial stability for jobs about budget management (unrelated to catastrophic family event), and do check to see of the candidates have been residents for say...the last 5 yrs. Candidates also need to have a good handle on the job they want to 'take on'. I am sorry, but micromanaging another elected MANAGER is not in the county commissioner job description or the voter's pamphlet.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Scofflaw in wreck sent to prison
Scofflaw in wreck sent to prison
Scofflaw Terry? Did you mean manipulative, defiant ADULT with court history and incredible writing skills? Did you mean the "the came to Jesus" girl who hopes the pope and Judge granted sainthood for bad behavior? Not to mention the hoard of prayerful folks who are praying for her and/or PAYING for her. Washington state sentencing guidelines when Felons are not amenable to treatment. Has a prosecutor who reduces charges because "not receptive to a lenient prison sentence" is the norm? Unfortunately the Guidelines of Wa do not allow the the actual charges vs the pity charges. 18 months is a bonus. Manny will back in YOUR neighborhood soon people of WW and her pals will be praying for her recovery.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Corrections officers put 'dress' in addressing domestic violence
Corrections officers put 'dress' in addressing domestic violence
Great way to make a statement and the men looked great (though they were not the latest fall fashions). With several Domestic disputes called to police DAILY: The Walla Walla community has a problem! Thanks for stepping out to point out the problem.
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Candidate not surprised by endorsement
Candidate not surprised by endorsement
I am a voter and a Casino is the last thing WW needs! Do you still live 'elsewhere' and of not how many months have you documented spending in WW in the last yr? Do you know the job of the BOCC is not to micromanage departments like the Port of WW and other county managers? What local debates have you attended? What is your financial management experience (like, Have you ever overseen a 3 million dollar budget)? You really want a "line by line" committee? So the committee will go through every line and fix the budget of MANAGERS hired to develop the budget? https://wei.sos.wa.gov/county/wallawalla/en/Recording%20Information/Documents/2013%20Preliminary%20Budget%20Departmental%20Request.pdf
DeadDawg 3 years, 1 month ago on Library, finances loom large at forum
Library, finances loom large at forum
I believe Tinfoil is referring to the VERY public records about financial problems that reach the superior courts. Many feel that legal problems demonstrate to some degree, a person's ability to manage a personal or small business budget. The direct lie in answer to a question is disturbing and makes me wonder about personal integrity and do ALL the candidates understand that YOUR business/court records are just as public as MINE (the difference is that I am not asking to manage a 70 million dollar budget). Everyone makes mistakes and readily admitting them indicates integrity. Turning your misfortune into an asset indicates a person of integrity. Don't spill your guts, just don't lie! Tell your potential employers how it changed you for the better. Janice


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Club Pack of 12 Ocean Preppy Whale and Octopus Party Confetti Bags 0.5 oz.
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Hong Kong's FilMart struggles to sell itself
For all the enthusiastic efforts of its organisers, FilMart, Hong Kong's annual film and television programmes market continues to fight for its place in the calendar. The fifth edition of FilMart, ended on Friday with a whimper, rather than a bang.
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The Magazine
Picture Perfect
How the Master saw the outsider's inner life.
May 20, 2013, Vol. 18, No. 34 • By EDWIN M. YODER JR.
By all but universal agreement, The Portrait of a Lady (1881) was Henry James's first masterpiece, a lengthy contemplation of the fate of an orphaned American girl who falls victim to European manners and morals—the first great articulation of his "international theme."
Nicole Kidman as Isabel Archer (1996)
dpa / everett collection
Inveterate James enthusiasts, sometimes playfully known as Jacobites, concede that even some sophisticated readers find James hard going; Michael Gorra's fine study ought to help. James's early stories are unremarkable, but the author was not slow to see this, and moved to remedy their defects. The result was a prodigious growth of his art and craft which produced Portrait (as we shall call it) before he turned 40. A disappointing attempt to transform himself into a playwright in the following decade failed, but, by a mysterious rule of compensation, the experience taught him lessons that would enrich his "late style," whose difficulties are considerable and thus erect new barriers for the common reader.
As for the technique of Portrait, James explains in the preface he wrote for his 1906 revision (whose emendations of the original text cover some 80 pages in one standard edition) that he had learned from the great Russian storyteller Ivan Turgenev to begin with a distinct person and imagine where her personality would take her, instead of imagining a plot and peopling it with characters.
Isabel Archer, the heroine of Portrait, is one of many young women in James's fiction who are victimized, sometimes with their own unintended help, by the predatory plotting of those they believe they can trust. The tale relies on our belief (or suspension of disbelief) in a 19th-century world where divorce is banned or disreputable and where so-called bastards are condemned, unless they have the luck to be the offspring of kings or Roman cardinals, and even though they had no hand in their begetting. Not least, women had yet to emancipate themselves from patriarchal domination, and marriage vows demanded virtue and obedience of wives, if not of husbands. Those vows become a big part of Isabel's dilemma; she takes them seriously indeed.
Among Jamesian heroines, Isabel Archer is arguably the most innocent. Her idealism, as she "affronts" her destiny—the verb is significant—echoes the high registers of the American Puritan tradition. She trusts a circle of new European friends whom the adult reader today quickly identifies as designing and mischievous, including the man she marries. Through the generosity of a well-meaning cousin who admires her freshness and ambition, she has been endowed with a fortune that predictably exposes her to fortune--hunters. She rejects two admirable suitors, an English viscount and a young American entrepreneur, to give her hand to an aestheticized and deracinated fop, Gilbert Osmond, originally from Baltimore, who dwells among his bibelots on a Florence hilltop. She is warned that this marriage will trap her in the conventionality she is fleeing. But she is so nobly blind to underhanded motives that she refuses to listen to cautionary words that would shock her ingenue stepdaughter, Pansy.
Henry James never wrote a bald or obvious tale. He transmutes what could pass for melodrama into a penetrating exploration of an evolving consciousness: Isabel's rueful growth into understanding. Gorra writes that Portrait is a bridge to modernism, a pioneering study in human interiority that would later undergo further development by Faulkner, Joyce, Woolf, and others. No less a critic than F. R. Leavis pronounced it one of the two greatest novels in the language, and even those who question such an exalted designation find it irresistible. So great is Isabel's high-minded cluelessness that, having at last surmised that her husband despises her for her "ideas" (that is, her originality and social adventurousness), her giddy but kind sister-in-law has to spell out the truth for her: Osmond has married her for her money; his mysterious friend and intermediary Madame Merle is actually Osmond's mistress and Pansy is their illegitimate offspring; and Merle's aspiration is to endow Pansy with a dowry that will win her a brilliant marriage.
Well might Isabel's informant exclaim, in the face of her naïveté, "With you, my dear, one must always dot one's i's."


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New Orleans police work on despite losing homes, desertions
By MARY FOSTER
NEW ORLEANS- Danny McMullen and the other detectives on the cold-case squad started work at 6:30 a.m. the day before Hurricane Katrina smashed into their city more than two weeks ago. Their work days have yet to end.
"Man, I'm going to need intense therapy after I get through with this," said McMullen, who lost his house, car and everything else in the storm.
New Orleans police are used to long hours and big events. They handle the million-plus crowd at Mardi Gras and are unfazed by Super Bowls, Sugar Bowls, Final Fours, political conventions and the everyday throng of tourists - many of whom come to New Orleans and immediately cast caution aside.
But before Katrina, there was always a bed at home and a day off on the horizon after the revelers ran out of beads. Not so with Katrina: Police Chief Eddie Compass believes more than 80 percent of his 1,740 officers lost their homes to the storm.
"I don't worry, that's just stuff," said Anthony Polidare, who graduated from the police academy just before Katrina hit. "Almost all of us lost our houses.
"The ones I feel sorry for are the guys who didn't know what happened to their families," Polidare said. "They kept doing their jobs, but they were just shells."
Not every police officer kept working.
Capt. Marlon Defillo said about 1,350 officers are still on the job. About 100 were on pre-storm leave for health or personal reasons, leaving about 300 officers who apparently either died, abandoned their posts or disappeared for some other reason.
They have not been accounted for since the storm hit.
"We're working in totally new areas now," said police spokesman Gary Flot. "We're victims and we're still police officers."
Those who stayed have come together. At the home of Lt. David and Sgt. Becky Benelli, where the electricity is back on, about 20 fellow officers have moved in.
"I don't even have a loose shingle," David Benelli said. "There are people on this force who went to work on Monday morning and at the end of the day didn't have anything but what they were wearing."
There is little sympathy among officers who stayed for those who abandoned their posts.
"I don't know all the circumstances, maybe they had family that needed them," David Benelli said. "I can't judge those people. ... But the ones who snuck off when it got bad are just cowards."
With the arrival of more troops and emergency personnel, police for the most part now work 12-hour shifts - down from 16- to 20-hour days, Compass said. The force is based at the foot of Canal Street, near a cruise ship where they can take a shower and use a flush toilet.
"They need that and they need a place they can unwind, maybe watch a movie, just relax," Defillo said.
Copyright 2015 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Directions (to the Utah side): From Interstate 15 take U.S. Route 6 east from Spanish Fork toward the Price area for about 57 miles. Near Helper take U.S. Route 191 northeast for about 100 miles to Vernal. From Vernal, take U.S. Route 40 east 13 miles to Jensen. Then take state Route 149 a few miles north into the monument.
Phone numbers: Temporary Visitor Center (Utah) (435) 781-7700; Canyon Visitor Center (Colorado) (970) 374-3000.
Visitor centers hours: Temporary Visitor Center (Utah), 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. daily; Canyon Visitor Center (Colorado), 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. daily.
Admission fees: No entrance fees until the new Quarry Visitor Center opens in October 2011.
Camping: The monument features six campgrounds, three of which are on the Utah side. Fees are charged at most developed campgrounds where potable water is available with the exception of the Rainbow Park Campground. Fees for the Green River Campground are $12 per individual site, and fees for the Deerlodge Park, Echo Park and Gates of Lodore campgrounds are $8 per site. The Split Mountain and Echo Park campgrounds also have group sites available for non-refundable reservation fees of $10 plus $25 per night at Split Mountain and $15 per night at Echo Park. For more information on camping at Dinosaur National Monument, visit www.nps.gov/dino/planyourvisit/campgrounds.htm. There are no reservations for individual sites, but to reserve a group site call (435) 781-7759.
Many visitors tend to focus on the dinosaur aspect of Dinosaur National Monument and rightly so the monument is named after the extinct creatures that once roamed this area on the Utah/Colorado border. However, theres much more to Dinosaur National Monument than its giant sized namesakes.
The Green River twists and turns its way through sandstone canyons and petroglyphs remnants of the ancient Fremont people that can be found dotting the sandstone cliffs. Trails offer hiking opportunities, and the river is perfect for rafting.
The dinosaur quarry section of the park on the Utah side is closed because of structural problems at the quarrys visitors center. Its location on expanding soil led to destabilization and eventual condemnation. However the monument is building a new visitors center and exhibit hall for the quarry section that will open in October.
However, there are still plenty of things to see and do at the monument. Evidence of the dinosaurs can still be seen along the half-mile Fossil Discovery Trail, which features bones and fossils exposed in the cliff face. The only way to reach this trail is by catching a shuttle at the temporary visitors center near the entrance to the Utah side of the park on state Route 149 just east of Vernal and north of Jensen.
Other trailheads can be accessed via automobile, such as the Sound of Silence Trail, which introduces hikers to the monuments geologic diversity at it passes through desert badlands, upturned rock layers and steep slickrock, as well as excellent views of Split Mountain. More information on trails at Dinosaur National Monument can be found at www.nps.gov/dino/planyourvisit/hikingtrails.htm.
The Green River in both the Utah and Colorado sides of the park as well as the Yampa River on the Colorado side are both popular for whitewater rafting expeditions. In fact, the monuments website says the best way to see the remote park is on the rivers. More information on fees, permits and other aspects of rafting in the park can be found at www.nps.gov/dino/planyourvisit/riverrafting.htm.
For the less adventurous, both the Utah and Colorado sides of the park have auto tour routes. On the Utah side its called Tour of the Tilted Rocks and takes visitors on a 13-mile (one way) trip past petroglyphs, pictographs, geologic formations, views of the Green River and a century-old cabin. For more details on the auto tour routes, visit www.nps.gov/dino/planyourvisit/scenic-drives.htm.


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Originally posted on Lynnrockets' Blast-Off:
Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney is a Mexican polygamist who should not be allowed on election ballots unless and until he proves otherwise with official documentation.
Donald Trump should immediately disavow Mitt(wit) Romney in light of the obviously deficient "Certificate of Live Birth" (i.e. short form birth certificate) released by the Romney campaign last week. As we all know by now, a "Certificate of Live Birth" is not satisfactory evidence of one's birth. We learned this fact of course, from the "Birthers" who said the said the same thing about President Obama's "Certificate of Live Birth" which he released in 2008. Also, as in the case of Obama, Romney's "Certificate of Live Birth" reveals that he cannot be a "natural born citizen" because one parent (his father) was born in a foreign country (Mexico). This also proves that Romney's father should have been thrown out of the 1968 Presidential election…
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