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- Collections
- Services
- Information
Maurice G. Gurin Papers, 1945-1990
Mss 034
1.8 c.f (1 carton and 2 document boxes)
Maurice Gilbert Gurin (1911-1990), was nearly 50 years old in 1959 when he made the career change from public relations to fund raising. Gurin incorporated new and innovative fund raising methods with more traditional techniques and in only 12 years rose from free-lancer fund raising to president of a fund raising firm with offices in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. He continued over the next 30 years to seek creative new answers to old questions, using imaginative new approaches to fund raising focused on individual client needs and making the fund raising plan fit the client rather than the client fit the fund raising plan.
The papers consist of correspondence, speeches, published materials, client feasibility studies, and client files.
1. Feasibility studies and other unpublished client records are subject to the following restrictions on their use:
2. The donor retains the copyright, but permits researchers to copy and quote from unpublished writings, except as limited in Restriction #1a and 1b.
Please consult the archivist for further information.
Cite as: Maurice G. Gurin Papers, 1945-1990, Ruth Lilly Special Collections and Archives, IUPUI University Library, Indiana University Purdue University Indianapolis.
Presented by Maurice G. Gurin, June 20, 1990, A90-95.
Processed by Brenda L. Burk and Barbara J. Mondary, December 1998.
Maurice Gilbert Gurin was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania in 1911 to Adolph and Rena Gilberg Gurin. After graduating from the University of Pittsburgh in 1933 he worked as a reporter and rewriter for the Philadelphia Record Newspaper from 1934-1938. During 1938 and 1939, Gurin worked as a freelance public relations consultant and from 1939 to 1941 was the executive director of Phi Epsilon Pi, a national college fraternity in Philadelphia. Gurin served as a Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army Air Corps, in the European Theater of Operations during World War II and was awarded the Bronze Star. From 1945-1949 Gurin was executive vice president of the public relations firm of Leonard V. Finder and Associated in New York City. In 1949 he founded Maurice G. Gurin Associated, a public relations firm serving commercial and nonprofit organizations, which he directed until 1959.
Feeling that his career in public relations was not providing the emotional satisfaction or financial recompense he needed, Gurin entered the field of philanthropic fund raising when he was asked to write a brochure for the United Cerebral Palsy Association. Because of his inexperience, Gurin broke one of the major fund raising taboos of the time, namely, that the sufferers of a disease and/or recipients of the charity should never be identified or pictured. The brochure created by Gurin featured a picture of Emik Avakian, a man with cerebral palsy who, since he could not use his hands, had invented a typewriter that could be operated by breathing. The brochure was a success and Gurin's career in fund raising was launched.
On February 2, 1959, with Lewis H. Bowen, then vice president of Kersting-Brown Firm, Gurin founded Bowen & Gurin, Inc. By 1966 it became evident to both Gurin and Bowen that the firm would benefit by including a third partner. Robert Barnes, who had been with the firm since 1960, was chosen and the firm's name was changed to Bowen & Gurin & Barnes, Inc. In 1968 Barnes suggested hiring Robert P. Roche, who had just finished a capital campaign for the University of Pennsylvania raising $103 million. The firm's name became Bowen, Gurin, Barnes & Roche, Inc. and Roche opened an office Philadelphia. In 1969 Edmund A. Carlson, a former vice president for development for Loyola University and Marymount College in Los Angeles, was invited to become a full partner and he opened an office in Los Angeles. Again the firm's name was changed to include the new partner's name. As consultants mainly in capital campaigns, the firm counseled such organizations as the Museum of Modern Art, New York Philharmonic, Whitney Museum of American Art, Metropolitan Opera, the Asia Society, Council on Foreign Relations, Teachers College of Columbia University, and more than 25 voluntary health agencies. By 1969 as a result of the additions to the firm and the opening of new offices, the firm had an average of 50 clients a year and a gross annual income in excess of $400,000.
In the two years that followed, however, the firm began its dissolution. Bowen left to join Brakeley, John Price Jones as a senior vice president. Soon after, Carlson left the firm and the Los Angeles office was closed. Finally it was decided that Barnes and Roche would continue to serve the clients of the Philadelphia office and Gurin would maintain the New York office. By 1972, after what Gurin described as "a 14-year immersion in the hectic business of building a nationwide counseling firm by the accretion of partners," Gurin was again operating as president of his solely owned firm, the Gurin Group, which he directed until 1986, retiring shortly thereafter. (Gurin, p. 64)
Gurin was progressive in his field and listed among his "fund raising firsts" that he was president of the first firm belonging to the American Association of Fund Raising Counsel (AAFRC) to give up resident campaign management and to provide only campaign counseling. His firm publicly departed from the "rule of thirds," a formula used in constructing a capital campaign that offered a standard norm of 10 donors accounting for the first third of a campaign goal, about 100 donors making up the second third, and all other donors contributing the final third of the goal. Gurin espoused the "specific situation formula" in its place, feeling that the giving prospects of any campaign rested in the individual organizations' potential donor base. Gurin was also proud of being a part of the first fund raising firm to have a woman serve as a consultant to clients.
Gurin served on the Board of Directors of the American Association of Fund Raising Counsel, Inc., as the Director of the National Society of Fund Raising Executives (NSFRE), and as President of the Greater New York Chapter of the National Society of Fund Raising Executives. He was the author of What Volunteers Should Know for Successful Fund Raising (1981), Confessions of a Fund Raiser: Lessons of an Instructive Career (1985), and Advancing Beyond the Techniques in Fund Raising (1991).
Maurice Gurin died on December 1, 1990.
Gurin, Maurice G., Confessions of a Fund Raiser: Lessons of an Instructive Career, Washington, D.C. : Taft Group, 1985.
Who's Who in the East, 23rd Edition, New Providence, NJ: Marquis Who's Who, 1991
Philanthropy: A History of Fund Raising, Indiana University Oral History Research Center, Interviews with Maurice Gurin, 1987, 1988, Bloomington, IN:Indiana University Oral History Research Center, 1987, 1988
The collection consists of the personal papers of Maurice G. Gurin and the records of his fund raising firm.
The History Files, 1949-1990, contain biographical information on Gurin as well as biographical information on some partners and staff members of his firms, master plans for Gurin & Bowen, client lists, news clippings, news releases, and newsletters.
The Correspondence Files, 1964-1969, contain correspondence between Gurin and individuals who were not clients. These files give an understanding of his opinions about the field.
The Writings Files, 1962-1990, contain Gurin's articles and speeches on various aspects of philanthropy and fund raising, book reviews, and published letters to editors.
The Client Files, 1958-1989, that compose the majority of the papers, contain client brochures created by Gurin and his colleagues for various campaigns and campaign feasibility studies. Evident in many of the brochures is the Gurin style of "humanizing" or using a human face and story to add emotional impact such as the United Cerebral Palsy Association brochure that was Gurin's entry into the fund raising profession. Prepared as a preliminary step to an actual campaign, the feasibility studies include fund raising surveys reviewing an institution's financial statements, audit reports, analyzations of previous giving records, and statistical data. A questionnaire was created to seek out data about its case/institution's objectives, leadership, and prospects. Logical interviewees were targeted, the survey administered, and the results were analyzed to provide recommendations to the client including the amount that could reasonably be expected to be raised, the budget of the campaign, the campaign's time schedule, the campaign's organizational chart, the table of gifts or estimate of the size and number of gifts likely required to meet the goal, sources of support, gift opportunities, and campaign literature. The Museum of Modern Art and the New York Philharmonic Records are good examples in understanding Gurin's methodology.
Last updated by on 02/28/2009


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Southerwestern Law
Law Schools, National Association for Law Placement (NALP), Non-Sequiturs, Police
* How many cops does it take to kill a man? [Simple Justice]
* Professor Paul Campos has been having fun with the NALP numbers. Well, fun for him, and for me. Less fun for anybody unlucky enough to have been part of the class of 2011. [Inside the Law School Scam]
* And if you don't like to read, here's some video about how bad the job market is for the class of 2011. ARE YOU LISTENING, PROSPECTIVE LAW STUDENTS? CAN YOU TAKE IN AND PROCESS INFORMATION? [Bloomberg Law]
* How come my anonymous readers don't drop $25 million on me? I'd name a whole wing of my new house after them. And give them a T-shirt. [Thomson Reuters News & Insight]
* In the recession, we cling to what we have instead of striking out into the unknown. In related news: if you leave your law job, there'll be a stampede of people happy to take your spot. [What About Clients?]
* I don't even think you should be allowed to defend yourself pro se. [Underdog]
* Southwestern Law's Dean Bryant Garth is stepping down. One of these days, somebody will let me run a law school. [Southwestern Law School]

subset: commoncrawl


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While American middle-schoolers were playing baseball and basketball in gym class, Cecil Stushnoff and his fellow Canadians proudly took their corn straw brooms and hit the bumpy, natural ice to hurl some stones for a match of curling.
Because, as Stushnoff said, What else do you do during the winter time?
This was the 1950s, and Stushnoff would wear a wool sweater knit by his mother sometimes it was a checkered pattern, or perhaps a maple leaf but he didnt wear those bright, goofy curling pants like those wild Norwegians do these days.
Oh, no. We didnt see any of that in our time, said Stushnoff, 74, a retired Colorado State University professor. I think thats a Norwegian invention. Good for them, though, theyve certainly created a buzz about curling.
Stushnoff, who moved to Fort Collins in 1989, is a lifelong curler, learning the sport as a boy living in Saskatchewan. His wife, Jeannette, is also a curler. Her womens team won the Minnesota state championship when Stushnoff worked at the University of Minnesota.
Curling in Canada is much like baseball in America. Every little town had a curling club, Stushnoff said. High schools had teams. From around Halloween when the weather was cold enough to freeze water, there would be two or three local sheets of ice to host tournaments.
These indoor tournaments, called bonspiels, attracted up to 64 teams, and would last the entire weekend. There would be competitions in mens, womens and mixed tournaments. More than 100 people would pack the stands to watch the competition.
Sometimes, cars were the top prize. Stushnoff said he once won an electric cooktop and a side of beets. His teams often took home cash, he said.
They were always very social events. Everyone pitched in with lunches and dinners. Youd play your games then gather together for social activities. They didnt allow alcohol on the ice, so youd have your scotch or your drink of choice after, Stushnoff said. This was very popular in Minnesota, too, traveling from town to town for competitions.
Stushnoff took a position at the University of Minnesota in 1968, where he curled with the St. Paul curling club before moving on to a position at the University of Saskatchewan. There, he played for the schools club team and in a mens super league from the mid-70s to early 80s.
Curling wouldnt make its official Olympic debut until 1998 in Nagano, Japan, but Stushnoff said he played among the best curlers in Canada and Minnesota. His teams traveled to bonspiels in Chicago, New York and Wisconsin and competed at the St. Paul Winter Carnival.
Certainly, we were exposed to the very high-caliber teams. Jeannettes team, they were also very good, said Stushnoff, whose favorite part of curling was calling the game as the skip. Thats what I loved to do. Thats whats difficult to do. Youd size up your opponent. Are they good at knockout? Are they playing a garbage game and just hoping it bounces their way? How do you design to take advantage of that? Theres a lot of thinking.
Stushnoffs native Canada won its third straight gold in mens curling Friday night. He has enjoyed NBCs coverage of the sport that has gained popularity in the U.S. over the past several years.
It used to be, youd just get 5-10 minutes here and there. Now, you can watch the entire matches. Thats been terrific, Stushnoff said. I remember playing with our corn brooms and on bumpy ice, not these beautiful sheets you see now. Its been a lot of fun to watch and now more people know about how good a sport curling is.
Follow Xplore reporter Stephen Meyers on Twitter @stemeyer or Facebook.com/meyersreports.


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FAA to announce 787 electrical review, source says
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration is to announce the review today, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the details aren't yet public. The Dreamliner's design and manufacturing will be part of the evaluation, the person said.
"We actively work with the FAA daily, across all of our product lines," Marc Birtel, a Boeing spokesman in Seattle, said in an emailed statement. "We are absolutely confident in the reliability and performance of the 787."
Telephone and voice-mail messages seeking comment from the FAA weren't immediately returned.
Other cars block electric charging stations ESPN viewer losses add to angst for Disney�s profit engine Israel to open Abu Dhabi office for renewable energy Swiss court convicts ex-HSBC employee for leaking bank data United CEO visits workers during leave after heart attack Retailers are pushing sales earlier, and consumers are buying
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text:
Liz Lemon + Don Draper = Best 30 Rock Ever?
- OMG. This may make you hyperventilate: Mad Men's Jon Hamm is in talks to do a multi-episode arc on 30 Rock. The man known as Don Draper could be Liz Lemon's neighbor and a potential love interest for Tina Fey's character. Breathe. Just breathe. [EW]
- Jennifer Lopez sued her first husband, former waiter Ojani Noa, for… »


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November 20th to December 20th
Group bookings
Top brunch spots
By Alan A. Vernon
By Stephanie Dickison
By Various Contributors
By Stephanie Dickison
This week's events in Toronto
Reserve online at your favourite restaurants in Toronto and across the GTA. Our real-time reservation system allows you to book available tables instantly from the restaurant's electronic reservation book.
Yonge Downtown Theme Park Attractions
Yonge is Toronto's main street and the world's longest, stretching North 1,896km from Lake Ontario, though Barrie, and finishing at the town of Rainy River, near Lake Superior. Named after Sir George Yonge in 1793, the steet is actually older than Toronto. Today It's considered the dividing line between the East and West ends of Toronto. Yonge St. is the site of many events, from the Santa Claus Parade in Winter to one of the world's largest Pride Parades in the summer. At Yonge and Dundas streets, you can go shopping at the city's largest mall, the Eaton Centre, try nearby restaurants and shops outside the mall or check out weekly events at the Yonge-Dundas Square.
(647) 846-8061
55 Mill St.
Toronto, ON
Authentic and modern Mexican lands in the Distillery district. Many have called it the most beautifully designed Mexican restaurant in Toronto. Showcasing a 20'x40' mural hand...
(647) 977-4198
1 Blue Jay Way
Toronto, ON
Located in the heart of the Entertainment District at 1 Blue Jays Way within the Renaissance Hotel, Arriba delivers a dynamic high-energy atmosphere combined with incredible views...
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MSO7104B Mixed Signal Oscilloscope: 1 GHz, 4 analog plus 16 digital channels
|Sold By:
Prices for: Angola
* Prices are subject to change without notice. Prices shown are Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Prices (MSRP).
Key Features & Specifications
Lab scope performance
- 1 GHz bandwidth; 4 GSa/s sample rate
- 4 analog plus 16 digital channels
- Standard 8 Mpts MegaZoom III deep memory
- Automatic Search and Navigate
Engineered for the best signal visibility
- 12.1" XGA display with 256 levels of intensity shows subtle signal detail
- Industry's-fastest uncompromised update rate of up to 100,000 waveforms/sec displays infrequent events
Wide range of application packages
- Segmented memory
- Mask Testing
- Serial decode including: I2C, SPI, CAN, LIN, FlexRay, RS-232/UART, I2S, and MIL-STD 1553
- MATLAB® software available directly from Keysight for making your own custom measurement and analysis routines, user-defined filters, or instrument applications.
View online videos to see for yourself
- See the 7000 Series scopes in action video demo
Keysight's InfiniiVision MSO7104B, equipped with a 12.1" XGA display, comes in a quiet package that is just 6.5" deep, and weighs only 13 pounds. With the world's fastest uncompromised update rate, up to 100,000 waveforms per second, see subtle signal detail and infrequent events other scopes miss. A wide range of application packages provide rapid measurement insight.
Check out the large selection of probes
See our wide range of application packages


text:
Ah, CERN…there's something about subatomic particles smashing together that sends my imagination soaring.
Apparently, tiny black holes could be generated during the collisions, but they blink out of existence before they start to grow…or do they?
This is the first installment of a new comic series, "Anti-Matters." Hope you enjoy.
Like drawings and comics? Please click "Like!"


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POSTED: 1:00 p.m. HST, Aug 2, 2011
LAST UPDATED: 9:53 p.m. HST, Aug 2, 2011
The forced labor trial of brothers Alex and Mike Sou of Aloun Farms came to an abrupt halt following lunch today because of a health issue involving the lead prosecuting attorney.
U.S. District Judge Susan Oki Mollway recessed the trial until Wednesday morning.
Federal prosecutors wanted a recess until Friday to enable two senior Justice Department lawyers to come here from Washington, D.C., to help in the trial.
They would replace Susan French, a trial attorney for the Justice Department's Human Trafficking Prosecution Unit.
But Mollway said other attorneys on the prosecution team should continue handling the case.
The Sous' defense attorneys said the federal government's case was unraveling after French conceded she inaccurately stated that workers couldn't be charged recruiting fees under federal law.
Matee Chowsanitphon, 57, a key prosecution witness who was supposed to resume testifying after lunch, will return to the witness stand in the morning.
The Sous are accused of bringing in 44 Thai nationals to work at Aloun Farms under forced labor conditions.
Chowsanitphon, 57, a U. S. citizen for about 16 years who was born in Bangkok and is now a California resident, pleaded guilty to visa fraud in the case in 2009 as part of an agreement with the prosecution.
He said he was sentenced to six months of house arrest and five years of probation, but no jail time.
Chowsanitphon has been described by prosecutors as the middleman between a Thai recruiter of the laborers and Aloun Farms.
He said at a dinner with the Sous and their father Aloun Sou at a small Japanese restaurant in Honolulu in 2003, the father said he was interested in the visa program enabling the workers to come to Hawaii, but didn't want to "pay so much in minimum wage."
Chowsanitphon said he told them that under the program, the workers would have to be paid $2 an hour above the minimum wage.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.


text:
Stop work orders, thousands of dollars in fines and numerous safety violations haven't been able to stop an apparently prime loft apartment building on Banker Street and Meserole Avenue in Greenpoint from operating illegally, the New York Times reported.
The former factory turned loft rental building, at 239 Banker Street, is just a skip away from Bedford Avenue, McCarren Park and the East River, boasting exposed brick and Manhattan skyline views. But a lack of heating, faulty wiring and numerous other problems plague the illegal residency, angering and bewildering local residents. "Why is it that someone can so egregiously and recklessly ignore the law and not be penalized appropriately?" Heather Roslund, the chairwoman of Community Board 1's land use committee, asked. [more]


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Pediatric Gastroenterologist; Director, Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition
Schwarzenberg, Sarah Jane, MD
- Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition
- Pediatric Cystic Fibrosis
- Transplants
Care Philosophy
While cystic fibrosis is considered a pulmonary disease, attention to excellent nutrition and good growth is essential to optimal pulmonary function and extended survival. I consider my role in the management of children with cystic fibrosis to reduce pain and disability associated with gastrointestinal and liver disease in CF, and to offer aggressive interventions to improve nutrition in children unable to achieve normal growth. I am proud to be a member of a team of caregivers dedicated to both superior clinical care of children with CF, and to clinical research to improve survival in this disease.
Board Certifications
Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition
Pediatric Transplant Hepatology
Clinical Interests
- Pancreatic disease
- Chronic pancreatitis
- Pancreatectomy/auto islet cell transplantation
- Pediatric liver disease, particularly Hepatitis B
- Gastrointestinal, nutritional and liver disease in cystic fibrosis
Medical School
University of Tennessee Medical School
LeBonheur Children's Medical Center, Memphis, TN (Pediatrics)
University of Minnesota (Cystic Fibrosis; Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition)
- Best Doctors in America® (2011-2012, 2013)
- Mpls.St.Paul Magazine "Top Doctor" (2012-2015)


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Passion for good food rules at Cioppino Restaurant in Strip District
Greg Alauzen, executive chef of Cioppino Restaurant in the Strip District, believes he has the best of both worlds.
The 43-year-old enjoys the fast pace of working in the city and creating the delicious, yet simple, entrees that Cioppino has become known for. But when the award-winning chef is away from Cioppino's immaculately clean and expansive kitchen, he is really away. Alauzen lives with his wife, Deborah, and their two teenagers, Cole and Madison, in a 134-year-old farmhouse on 97 acres in Eighty Four, Washington County.
"Yeah, we bought an old farmhouse and completely restored it," says Alauzen, who says the commute is about 40 minutes each way. "We did everything ourselves -- that's stress-relief for me."
Cooking has been Alauzen's passion for the past 27 years, and he is no stranger to the Pittsburgh culinary scene. The Bridgeville native began at Fatigati's as a 15-year-old when he realized he wanted to become a chef.
"I always had an interest in cooking, and my mom and grandmother taught me the basics," he says. "At Fatigati's, I thought maybe cooking (for a career) would be all right."
Alauzen graduated from The Culinary Institute of America in 1987 and interned at Maxim's of Paris in New York City. He returned to Pittsburgh and worked at the Duquesne Club for a year, but was lured back to New York for two years, working under Charlie Palmer at Aureole. Alauzen had his own restaurant, Culinary Renaissance in New Jersey, for the next six years.
"I was also a consultant for the Steelhead Grill, and then became the executive chef there for seven years," Alauzen says.
It was during those years -- in 1999, to be exact -- that Alauzen became one of 15 finalists in the James Beard Foundation competition for Best Chef -- Mid-Atlantic. But Alauzen shrugs off the honor.
"I was fortunate that I had good people guiding me," he says. "It's a hard field and it takes a lot of hard work. I've been fortunate in this industry."
After a three-year stint as executive chef at Eleven, Alauzen landed at Cioppino Restaurant, which opened two years ago. The sleek and elegant 160-seat restaurant, with its scarlet walls, wooden tables and chairs, brown concrete floor and muted lighting, quickly became the hot spot for foodies, Downtown business people, tourists and locals. A plush mahogany cigar bar, boasting a separate entrance and separate bar menu, gets very busy, says Alauzen, who has a sous chef and four cooks working with him.
"We do anywhere from 180 to 200 dinners a night, and we're only open for dinner," he says.
Alauzen's philosophy -- "keep it simple, use quality ingredients, and the right techniques" -- is evident throughout the contemporary American menu with Mediterranean influences. The menu changes four to six times a year, and Alauzen uses local ingredients as much as possible, such as Elysian Fields lamb, free-range chicken, and produce from the Strip District and local farms. Seafood is flown in from Hawaii, the West Coast and Philadelphia.
"The menu is my own, and everything is made fresh daily with seasonal ingredients," he says.
Cioppino's menu is refreshingly simple. Starters include oysters on the half shell; lobster risotto; tuna tartare with white truffle oil; beef carpaccio with capers and roasted peppers; and steamed clams and mussels in white wine.
Seafood entrees feature grilled wild king salmon with summer succotash; seared tuna and chilled taglioni; Alaskan halibut with asparagus-mushroom salad and chive oil; crab cakes, and sea scallops with risotto. Steaks are always popular, he says, as are the Elysian Fields lamb and pasta specialties -- baked gnocchi and vegetable cavatelli.
Pastry chef Meghann Walsh creates the mouthwatering homemade desserts, which include lemon panna cotta, vanilla bean creme brulee, tiramisu, amaretto cherry cheesecake and beignets.
"We do have daily features where I like to try out things," Alauzen says. "I talk to customers a lot, and see what the best-selling items are."
When Alauzen interviews prospective chefs, he looks for individuals with a good work ethic who are passionate about food. Important qualities for a chef, in his opinion, are professionalism, creativity, dedication and passion.
"Keeping good help -- that's the hardest part of this job," he says. "Cooking isn't easy; you have long hours and have to to work weekends and holidays, but if you get to the right level, you can make an OK living. And it's something you'll always know."
Cioppino executive chef Greg Alauzen is sharing his popular Alaskan halibut with mushroom and asparagus salad and chive oil recipe. This delicious summer dish is simple to prepare, and the fresh chive oil is a wonderful accompaniment to the hearty, pan-seared halibut steaks.
Alauzen suggests serving this meal with a good chardonnay or sauvignon blanc.
For the Chive Oil:
• 1⁄4 cup chives, roughly chopped
• 1⁄4 cup flat parsley leaves (float in bowl of water, drain and dry, and then roughly chop)
• 2 cloves garlic, peeled, smashed and roughly chopped
• 1 lemon, washed
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper, 1 pinch each, more if needed
• 1⁄2 cup premium olive oil, plus more for serving
For the halibut:
• 2 tablespoons blended oil (75 percent soy; 25 percent extra virgin olive oil) or enough to coat bottom of pan
• 4 (6- to 7-ounce) boneless Alaskan halibut steaks
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper, to taste
• 1-2 tablespoons unsalted butter
For the Mushroom and Asparagus Salad:
• 1 to 2 tablespoons blended oil (75 percent soy; 25 percent extra virgin olive oil)
• 1 cup shiitake mushrooms, brushed clean, stems removed, and sliced
• 1 cup oyster mushrooms, brushed clean, bottom of stems removed, and sliced into bite-size pieces
• Salt and freshly ground black pepper, to taste
• 1 bunch asparagus (thin)
• Water
To prepare the Chive Oil: In a blender, add the chives, parsley and garlic. Using a zester, put the lemon zest into the blender, then cut the lemon in half and squeeze the juice through a strainer into the blender. Add a pinch of salt and a pinch of pepper.
Start the blender and slowly add the oil (see Photo 1) . After all of the oil is incorporated, blend on high for a smooth puree. Check the seasoning and adjust if necessary. This sauce can be made ahead of time.
To prepare the halibut: Heat a large saute pan to very hot and add the blended oil.
Season the fish with salt and pepper and add the halibut to the pan, flesh side down. Don't move the fish; let it sear. Use a spatula to lift the halibut slightly to check whether it has caramelized. When caramelized, after 2 to 3 minutes, flip over (Photo 2) .
Add the butter and place in a pan in a 400-degree oven for about 5 minutes, or until the fish feels firm.
To prepare the Mushroom and Asparagus Salad: Heat a saute pan to very hot, then add blended oil and saute the shiitake and oyster mushrooms (Photo 3) in separate batches until nicely caramelized, for 3 to 5 minutes. Season with salt and pepper. Reserve and keep warm.
Trim the bottoms of the asparagus, and blanch to al dente in boiling salted water, then shock in an ice bath. Cut on the bias into 2-inch pieces. The asparagus can be prepared ahead of time.
To plate: Combine the asparagus and warm mushrooms, and season with salt and pepper, 1 teaspoon Chive Oil and 1 teaspoon premium olive oil (Photo 4) . Stack in the center of the plate, then place the halibut atop or on the side of the vegetables and spoon more sauce around the perimeter (Photo 5) .
Makes 4 servings.Additional Information:
Cioppino Restaurant
Cuisine: Contemporary American with Mediterranean influences
Hours: 5-10 p.m. Mondays-Saturdays
Entree price range: $16-$38
Notes: Major credit cards accepted. Handicapped accessible. Reservations suggested. Live entertainment Thursdays and Fridays. Cigar bar with separate entrance. Validated parking available at garage on 24th Street. Full service bar with speciality drinks.
Address: 2350 Railroad St., Strip District
Details: 412-281-6593 or website
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- Judge in ex-Massey Energy CEO's trial pushes jury to reach verdict
- Starkey: Tomlin lived in his fears
- Monessen lawyer disbarred by state disciplinary board


text:
The lemon is a citrus fruit that is most commonly used for its juice in cooking, baking and in drinks such as lemonade. Small amounts can also be used in green smoothies. The lemon is sour due to its natural citric acid.
Lemon juice can be used with apples, bananas and avocados as a short term preservative to prevent browning.
Lemons grow in subtropical and tropical regions, and they can be grown all year round in those climates. One of the leading producers of lemons worldwide is the US – primarily grown in California and Arizona.
Lemon Nutrition and Health Benefits
Lemons are an excellent source of vitamin C, which studies suggest help boost the immune system and protects against arthritis.
Lemons are high in antioxidants and may have anti-cancer properties. Limonoids in citrus fruit have been shown to fight cancers of the mouth, skin, lung, breast, stomach and colon. There is some research suggesting that limonoids may also play a role in lowering cholesterol.
Top 3 Green Smoothie Recipes With Lemon
More Lemon Green Smoothie Recipes
Creamy Lemon-Banana Smoothie
1/2 lemon, peeled
1 banana
1 pear
2 cups fresh baby spinach (or other leafy green)
1/2 cup water
1 tsp agave nectar (optional)*
Calories: 238 | Fat: 0.7g (grams) | Protein: 4.8g | Carbs: 65g | Calcium: 13% | Vitamin A: 83% | Vitamin C: 142% | * Agave nectar adds 60 calories and 16 grams of carbohydrates.
Lemon-Mint Smoothie
1/2 lemon, peeled
1 cup honeydew melon
1 pear
1-2 tablespoons of chopped fresh mint to taste
2 cups fresh baby spinach (or other leafy green)
1/2 cup water
Calories: 171 | Fat: 0.6g (grams) | Protein: 3.5g | Carbs: 47.8g | Calcium: 13% | Vitamin A: 189% | Vitamin C: 220%
Strawberry-Lemonade Smoothie
½ teaspoon lemon zest
1/2 lemon, peeled
6 large strawberries
2 cups fresh baby spinach (or other leafy green)
1 banana
1/2 cup water
Calories: 188 | Fat: 1.1g (grams) | Protein: 5.2g | Carbs: 60g | Calcium: 14% | Vitamin A: 82% | Vitamin C: 271%
Tangy Lemon-Mango Smoothie
1/2 lemon, peeled
1 mango
½ apple
2 cups fresh baby spinach (or other leafy green)
1/2 cup water
Calories: 224 | Fat: 2.1g (grams) Protein: 4.6g | Carbs: 61g | Calcium: 15% | Vitamin A: 113% | Vitamin C: 238%
Check out these delicious green smoothie recipes with lime!
How To Select Lemons
Lemons are readily available and can be purchased fresh all year. Look for lemons that are heavy for their size and store them away from sunlight.
Browse more green smoothie recipes.


text:
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Marco Saavedra, a Dream Act protester, participates in a sit-in Friday at President Barack Obama's Walnut Hills campaign headquarters. The office has been closed since Saavedra and other protesters arrived Wednesday.
- Filed Under
On the surface, Marco Saavedra got what he had demanded.
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The bold policy change, met largely by criticism or support along partisan lines, borrows from portions of the decade-old legislation known as the Dream Act that passed the House but failed in the Senate in December 2010. Many of those affected, including Saaverda, greeted the news with skepticism that it was tardy and ...


text:
United States Department of Agriculture
Agricultural Research Service
1a.Objectives (from AD-416):
Strengthen the extension and delivery systems of Afghanistan and Pakistan to better meet the needs of farmers and the rural poor.
1b.Approach (from AD-416):
Under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Working Group ("Working Group") of the United States-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Initiative ("Trilateral"), UC Davis and a consortium of other universities will develop, organize, and conduct three workshops covering varying aspects of an effective agriculture extension training system and delivery mechanisms for information to farmers in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. As a result, the ministries of agriculture and provincial governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan will have a system and a group of trained extension technicians to train additional technicians and develop agricultural extension programs throughout their respective countries.
3.Progress Report:


text:
The release of Fed Minutes showed greater unaminity than was previously hinted at. That was the excuse for the intraday reversal yesterday.
A sharp-eyed observer noted:
"Volume had been barely pacing Monday. Until 2:00 p.m. when it started to crank. As a matter of fact, there was a boatload shoved thru as the clock struck 2 and for the next ~30 minutes. Local lore is attributing this jump in volume and in price to the good news of the FOMC minutes. The only question that remains is what kind of a speed reader could actually scan and digest the above-referenced 7 pages, 276 lines, 34 paragraphs and 3,336 words and start to act on it before the red headline ink was even dry. (emphasis added)
I'll say. The ramp started the instant the Fed minutes hit — certainly not enough time for any mortal to have read and comprehended that much data. This looked like it was simply a large macro-player pushing indices around in a very thin tape.
This is not me "talking my book." As I said in early August, I am contructive on the market for the next few weeks, but not much more beyond that.
The more interesting Fed related story the past few days was out of merry ole England, by way of Jackson Hole. Its seems that Charles Bean, the Bank
of England's chief economist, is aghast at the absurd focus on the Core Rate of inflation by the U.S. Central Bank.
Dan Gross has the details:
"The US Federal Reserve is wrong to focus on core measures of inflation
that exclude energy prices, Charles Bean, chief economist at the Bank
of England, has suggested.
It should focus instead on headline inflation, which is much
higher, he argued. Including energy and food costs, US consumer price
inflation is running at an annual rate of 4.1 per cent, against 2.7 per
cent for core inflation.
Mr Bean told the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium at the weekend
that energy prices were rising for the same reason the price of many
manufactured goods were falling: the rise of China and other emerging
market economies. Since both price trends had a common cause, he said
it makes little sense to focus "on measures of core inflation that
strip out energy prices while not stripping out falling goods prices as
Mr. Bean did not mention the Fed by name but his implication was
clear. Fed officials, including chairman Ben Bernanke, typically talk
about measures of core inflation excluding volatile food and energy
prices, which they say better predict future headline inflation.
Central bankers in Europe take a sharply different approach. Both
the Bank of England and the European Central Bank put greater emphasis
on talk of headline inflation, which includes the immediate "first
round" effect of rising energy prices.
I find it rather discouraging that so obvious a statement needed to be publicly pointed out by an overseas observer, albeit a well placed one.
Inflation (ex-inflation) has now risen to the level of a national embarrassment.
BoE chief economist hits at US inflation measure
By Krishna Guhain Jackson Hole
Published: August 28 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 28 2006 03:00
Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
50 Responses to "The Fed is Wrong on Core Inflation"
Hey Barry- Ignoring inflation (or, at best, failing to adapt outdated measures to the modern world) seems to be an operational philosophy that the Fed and U. S. government will keep for a while. So the natural question is: How do you think this situation can be exploited for financial gain? I'll take f–ked up perspective all the way to the bank if I can…
I have a prediction. The inflation rate will soon go steadily down. My reasoning is that I believe we are headed for a serious recession, on par of the early nineties….
Pre-meditated Rally
About that rally yesterday. I read the minutes and I did not see what the market saw, so it does look pre-meditated.
I still think this bogus rally gets whacked after Labor Day.
Jim is right……ride it hard until the first stringers return.
OK, let's all agree inflation due to gas/energy prices is running higher than we would all like (Fed included). Now, let's look at WHY the oil prices are high – Geopolitical risks, Hurricane concerns, increased worldwide demand, lack of new refining, etc. (although, to be fair, prices have come down fairly signifcantly lately).
Now, if you are the FED and you have raised rates 17 straight times, and you are starting to see commodities/energy retreat and Core inflation is holding fairly steady, and most importantly to this site, housing is in a semi free-fall, why would you raise rates? Answer is you wouldn't/won't. You won't raise them in Sept. either. The economy will naturally slow (as it is doing), and guess what energy/commodities are coming down.
If we get GDP under 2 for Q3, they will then start to cut rates and market will take off. Soft landing will be achieved. Maybe it's because I am in the Midwest, but I really think this housing situation is over-rated as far as brining on a recession. People still have money, real wages are going up (slightly yes, but still up) and the consumer is one resilient MF'er. Don't bet against them guys.
The only excuse the Fed gives for core inflation reporting is that headline inflation is "volatile." Gosh and golly, it's not like they don't have any centuries old statistical techniques for smoothing out volatility. Perhaps there's an opportunity to start a respectable series of inflation indicators; iBR1, iBR2, iBR ex energy, etc.
Once Britain starts talking about it does that mean we are fighting the last war? Barry, JDamon makes some very good points. Do you honestly believe the Fed should be raising rates higher here? Cooked inflation numbers aside, of course. Far aside.
First of all, cue up "God Bless the USA" and let me say I don't think monetary policy should depend on import prices at all. To target an index including import prices means that policymakers expect American firms to cut prices (relative to the target trend) when importers raise prices and vice versa. Why should they? Why should a scarcity of imports (like oil) result in a contrived scarcity of money? And why should an abundance of imports (like manufactured goods) result in a contrived abundance of money? The reason to have a target in the first place is to give the Fed credibility so that domestic firms will forbear raising prices in response to temporary shocks. If the objective is to influence the behavior of domestic firms, why should policy be influenced by variables outside the control of domestic firms? The target index should focus on prices that are likely to be sticky, which is not the case for imports under flexible exchange rates.
(For the record, looking at domestic prices only, the GDP deflator is running at about 3.3% for the past 4 quarters – somewhat worse than the core CPI but considerably better than the full CPI.)
But – second point – part of the reason the Fed focuses on core prices is that food and energy prices are volatile. If you're looking at the last month or 3 months or 6 months or even 12 months, the full CPI gives you only a little bit of information about whether inflation is accelerating, whereas the core gives you more information. If the Fed were to target a full index like the CPI, they would have to take into account its volatility. In that case, the 4.1% number cited by Bean (or was it by the reporter?) is misleading. Rather you should use a smoothed inflation rate that takes into account several years of data. For example, I have a weighted moving average (72 months linear weights declining to zero at the far end) of CPI inflation that is running at about 3%, which is a lot closer to 2.7% than 4.1%.
(Cross-posted from Greg Mankiw's Blog. I don't usually cross-post, but I couldn't help myself this time.)
Tony Crescenzi on Realmoney.com has been saying today and for some time that commercial construction and loans is booming.
I don't understand why commercial construction would be so strong in light of a weakening economy. Anyone have a clue?
Commercial construction is usually 12-18 months behind the consumer. It's tough to stop building a mall right in the middle of your pour for Dillard's foundation.
Another criticism foreign central bankers have made is that it's a mistake for the Fed to ignore equity price inflation, but to then lower rates when equity prices fall. The Economist had a lot on this earlier this year.
Given the current indebtedness of average working people, wouldn't inflation actually be good for them? Wages would probably at least keep up with inflation. Even Social Security is indexed now.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not advocating it. But just hypothetically, wouldn't 70-80% of American households be better off with inflation of 5-7%?
mark, Commercial construction is not lagging. They are reacting to the demand for business growth. Corporate profits continue to grow and they need to expand their operations. Do not try to compare big business to the consumer. That is like comparing apples and oranges. Businesses deveolp strategiest to maintian their competative edge. They speculate on the future and capitalize on times of poor and pently. When was the last time you heard of the average consumers hedging his energy needs 5 to 10 years out into the future? Or layoff the kids when they can't afford to kepp them becasue of rising costs? That is why they are called a consumer. They consume. They are a bacl hole for products and services and very few products and services are ever converted up to a higher value product or service that the resell other than the consumers labor hours.
Corporate profits are high not becasue the eocnomy is good but becasue consumers have not figured out the real value of the products they are purchasing. Remember the CRT monitor to LCD monitor convertion. Those CRT monitors dropped from $700 for a 21 inch screen to $250 overnight. So you have to wonder, was the value of those old monitors $700 or $200? People were willing to pay $700 up to the day that they dropped prices. They didn't understand the true value of the product.
Even the core rate doesn't offer much solace, rising from 2.1% in Q1 to 2.8% in Q2.
But, like fund managers, central bankers aren't averse to talking their own book too. Our European trading partners can't be too happy that a weak dollar discourages their exports to us and would probably like to see the Fed tighten again.
foreign central bankers will not be voting in our upcoming elections so the odds of the Fed tightening??? thought so…
For those conspiracy theorists out there, the SP500 futures dropped a point on the release and the mkt didn't start advancing until two minutes after the release, plenty of time for some to find exactly what they were looking for in the report. the speculators see the push and pile in on every pullback. Simultaneously the mkt had a larger time frame divergence which everyone pounced on. just one perspective….
Hey, did anyone notice Robert Shiller's op-ed in the WSJ today?
Discussed here by Roubini:
Uh, yes Ander, it is lagging. Lagging demand as such.
JDamon wrote:
"real wages are going up"
Yeah, if you're in the top 1% of the wage earners.
It's gone down for the low and middle class wage earners.
#1: PCE core inflation is rising and hitting new highs based on 4-5 year compounded growth rates.
#2: The last time there was an energy cost bump core inflation steadied. But guess what, when energy costs came down core inflation rose! (Simple economics: Money was syphoned to energy so there was less for core purchases which meant lower demand which meant lower cost pressures. When less money was needed for energy, more was available for core purchases, more demand, more upward price pressure.)
OK, so here's a comment by the Richmond Fed President. How can he talk about moderating energy prices helping control inflation when all along they have been EXCLUDING energy in their calcuation of inflation?!
Lacker said he did not think that weaker growth "by itself" would bring inflation down. On one side, there is a view at the Fed that hopes flattening energy prices over the near term would reduce upward pressure on core inflation, he said. "I was in the camp of thinking we needed to raise rates to make sure inflation comes down," Lacker said in a television interview.
How can he talk about moderating energy prices helping control inflation when all along they have been EXCLUDING energy in their calcuation of inflation?
They have been excluding direct energy prices from their calculation. Lacker is talking about the indirect effect of energy prices. For example, if fuel gets cheaper, then air fares might go down, because it costs less to run a jet. They have been including air fares all along. (I actually happen to be an extremist who thinks that even the indirect effect of energy should be excluded from target price index, but that is not how it is done today.)
I think we are talking about different things. At least I hope so since I am in the business ( international commercial real estate and economic development consulting). It would be very hard on my ego to think I advanced this far in my profession and I had no idea what I was talking about. (Perhaps it was the throwaway nature of my post.) I see what you are talking about for current demand. I look several years out in my projections for my clients before committing them to projects.
The bond market is now pricing in an 8% chance of a rate cut at the Jan 31, 2007 meeting.
How bout that.
Amazing how the bond market and stock market are now completely on different pages. In order for the Fed to cut rates in 4 months, the incoming data would have to show rapid deterioration in the economy.
But hey…are we still buying?
On the Shiller index and Roubini's analysis, while I agree fundamentally with the fact that housing is turning from boom to bust, that graph is usually explained away by housing bulls as due to 1997 era tax changes. The capital gains on housing became deductible up to $250k for a single or $500k for married homesellers that year. That started the ball rolling, then historically low interest rates entered the picture, and of course irrational exuberance.
>Rather you should use a smoothed inflation rate that takes into account several years of data
Not really disagreeing with you, just pointing out the Control 101 truth that the longer you average your data the slower your response time to a step change is.
So how responsive should the Fed be? I sure don't know. But when you think you have a really good predictor think about when it actually sets the flag, and if that would be soon enough for any use to anybody.
I'm in general pretty comfortable with the normal view that you should watch energy prices thru their second-order effects.
But knzn is going to have to work quite a bit to get me to see his self-labeled "extremist" view. We, especially in America (but you Euros don't get too smug, look around a bit) have built ourselves into such an energy-dependent corner that you can make a lot of good predictions about the economy based on what a btu will cost it.
Just a point of clarity on the action immediately following the Fed statement – as someone who monitors the futures markets very closely, they whipsawed lower initially before spiking higher. They actually water-falled for the first couple of minutes……
after the close
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said nothing has changed his economic views since he cast the lone vote against the central bank's decision this month to leave interest rates unchanged.
"There's a danger of inflation being entrenched at the level it is now," Lacker, 50, said in an interview in Washington. "I don't think we're out of the woods yet" on the inflation risk, he said.
"Housing obviously is going to be a drag on the economy going forward to some extent," Lacker said. Still, he said that he hasn't yet seen much of a "spillover effect" to reduce consumer-spending growth or overall construction employment.
Intesting comments by Lacker about not seeing much of a "spillover effect"….
What is the Fed President seeing that Barry and the other perma-bears here aren't? I thought the housing crash was supposed to be the "Katrina" of all economic destruction?
BR: Funny, when I got bullish in October 2002 I was called a perma-Bull.
Inflation should be measured in other dimensions such as velocity and quality. The internet business facilities contributes much to "velocity". The internet can locate in a few minutes a play-model Camaro car instead of physically shopping for it in 3 malls and still not be able to find it. When you get the Camaro in two days, you would want to buy the Thunderbird model next day; and so on. An example of "measure of quality" would be that of – a house manufactured in 1970 could last 60 years, while a house purchased today might only last 50 years because of differences in basic materials being used such as particle boards vs. solid plywood, plastic vs. copper plumbing materials, etc…
Another "quality dimension" would be that -percentages of increases this years of being at war in Iraq and other places and spending in Tsunami and Katrina disasters contributed to a distorted measure of inflation.
Stocks are being pushed up by Options/Insider trading. These guys know whats really going on the rest of the herd doesn't: The economy is closing in on recession.
They are pushing it up, for when the herd panic, they will sell it off with a major correction.
Pretty much textbook.
"Inflation should be measured in other dimensions such as velocity and quality."
How about reality? My Rip Van Winkle experience, 5 years ago I go to work, save, work, save, work, save ad nauseum, then I wake up and find that the $250K house I could've paid cash for then is now $750K.
Inflation in gas and food is deflationary, because it stripes out cash from people.
Do you know the today's news #1 that noone paid attention at?
WalMart and Samson Club (or whatever its name) just started dropping prices because sales are falling. Check today Minianville.
Decreasing gas consumption takes time, it can't be done overnight. A lot of people now are losing their homes, defaulting on loans, selling their cars and moving into small apartments closer to work. They drop out from gas consumption. But this process is not fast enough to affect prices. Should take another 6 months.
Did you hear it? WalMart is dropping prices. What inflation?
Wal-mart is also cutting jobs besides cutting prices, hear that: Recession.
thank goodness they're cutting jobs
the best way to cut inflation is to fire people
If the Fed focused on real time inflation indicators such as asset and commodity prices, they would have headed off the housing bubble before it got going, the metals bubble (corner), the natural gas swindle of DEC2005, and the NASDAQ bubble.
Focusing on the core rate which is an insensitive lagging indicator of inflation creates excessive speculation, excess liquidity, off cycle monetary adjustments, and tends to stabilize prices at a higher level than previous to the inflation.
Inflation is the rate of increase in prices. Zero inflation means that prices remain at a permanently higher level with deflation. The core rate automatically builds price increases into the equation. It would be better if the fed reacted when excess monetary stimulation was ocurring, not two years after the fact. Of course raising rates now is risky. They should have been at 5.25 % last year. We would now be at 4.5 %.
«The ramp started the instant the Fed minutes hit — certainly not enough time for any mortal to have read and comprehended that much data.»
But this is stunningly naive. A majority of trades are done by programs, and it is extremely likely that several of those have clever high powered, handcrafted FOMC minute parsing and interpretation code. It can net millions by beating merely human traders to the punch.
"extremely likely that several of those [programs] have clever high powered, handcrafted FOMC minute parsing and interpretation code."
Ett wood bee inturesting efff tha FED ishued a phonetic ur mangled sta-t-ement jus ta c if dis wur true.
Of course this won't happen. The Fed knows the announcement is gamed and that's the way they like it.
Maybe, just maybe, the Fed has engineered a soft landing, inflation will continue to be mild, we've experienced the slowdown, and the stock market is pricing in more rapid economic growth 6-12 months down the road.
Just maybe.
No amount of inflation is good. That it is generally accepted that a modest level of inflation is good is really just an acknowledgement that, since inflation can not be completely contained, then a little is better than a lot. Inflationary expectations are compounded (built in to exprectations) exponentially. The result is phantom profits which produce an illusion of greater wealth.
Ander: In "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith, he makes it pretty clear that capital spending is a response to high profits, thus ultimately reducing the return on invested capital via the subsequent effects of competition. Commercial construction is likely a lagging indicator.
per Blissex:
"But this is stunningly naive. A majority of trades are done by programs, and it is extremely likely that several of those have clever high powered, handcrafted FOMC minute parsing and interpretation code. It can net millions by beating merely human traders to the punch."
Let me guess, you are not a programmer? duh.
Computers are utterly worthless for interpreting anything that requires context, like, oh say, the minutes of a meeting of a bunch of gasbags. There was indeed program trading, but the program consisted of the hot shot traders walking out the door last Friday for the week and throwing the keys to the pimple boys and telling them to flip the switch at exactly 2:00 pm on Wednesday to run things up a bit for EOM window dressing purposes.
It didn't really matter what the Fed minutes said, there was going to be a "rally" and that's all there is to the story.
oops, should have been "telling them to flip the switch at exactly 2:00 pm on Tuesday." Programming error. :)
>>>It didn't really matter what the Fed minutes said, there was going to be a "rally" and that's all there is to the story.<<< Exactly. This entire low volume rally has been "news? data? anyways…are we still buying?"
>>>Stocks are being pushed up by Options/Insider trading. These guys know whats really going on the rest of the herd doesn't: The economy is closing in on recession.
They are pushing it up, for when the herd panic, they will sell it off with a major correction.
Pretty much textbook.< << >>>But this is stunningly naive. A majority of trades are done by programs, and it is extremely likely that several of those have clever high powered, handcrafted FOMC minute parsing and interpretation code. It can net millions by beating merely human traders to the punch.<<< Those last two posts read like they came right out of Yahoo message boards.
Note that 3.1% longer term smoothed CPI is still above the core CPI and way above the Fed's comfort level of 2%. This points to continued rising core and nominal CPI .
I'm not an economist, but my understanding is that the excess money created the last few years has been rotating out of financial or paper assets because real interest rates are too low (or negative for several years) and into hard assets. I believe this rotation will continue and continue pushing up the CPI. The core will now probably be the main avenue with the acceleration because the non-core inflation will now be pushing through to core goods.
At the same time, the higher nominal rates has slowed NEW money creation. It was this new money creation that was fueling the lending bubble and its absence is what we see in the stalled (and soon to be falling) house price rises and commodity price rises.
Therefore, we may see rising CPI for the next year or two at the same time we see falling house and commodity prices plus falling financial asset prices. If the Fed does not get ahead of the curve then nominal rate rises will only be keeping pace with CPI rate rises which means low real yields but higher nominal yields persist. This is the essence of what caused stagflation. Paul Volcker acknowledges in his biography that he only saw this relationship clearly after he had been raising rates for a while and yet still CPI was accelerating. Until he got aggressive enough to get real interest rates to rise then the cycle could not be broken and stagflation persisted.
Michael C
you got that right
those sentiments are made by conspiracy theorists who see the FBI in their cereal every morning , they know zip about this biz and prove it on every post they make
«I'm not an economist, but my understanding is that the excess money created the last few years has been rotating out of financial or paper assets because real interest rates are too low (or negative for several years) and into hard assets.»>
And there has been a large transfer of GDP from low to high income earners; the high income earners tend to invest a much higher percentage of their income, and this adds to the price pressure on assets. There has been indeed huge asset price inflation, supported and sustained by the Federal Reserve.
«I believe this rotation will continue and continue pushing up the CPI.»
But the CPI is only rather indirectly linked to asset price inflation. The very redistribution from low to high income earners has reduce the buying power (wages) of the low income earners and has therefore moderated the CPI. Globalization has achieved this by adding a lot of foreign spare capacity in labor but not in capital to the USA trading system.
The reasons why the CPI is edging up now, despite heroic efforts to redefine it, are that a lot of that foreign spare capacity is used up, leading to high wage increases rates in offshore countries, and at the same time spare capacity in commodities is fully used up, as the increasing incomes of offshore workers allow them to buy a lot more stuff.
«But just hypothetically, wouldn't 70-80% of American households be better off with inflation of 5-7%?»
Not so sure about that. The main effect of inflation is that it benefits debtors vs. creditors, and people with high bargaining power vs. people with low bargaining power.
However I suspect that it would benefit real estate owners, and more than 80% of voters own real estate…
As to the merit of the level, 5-7% is a bit on the high side, but if stable it does not have lots of distortion because of monetary illusion.
The problems are:
* Getting there without creating expectations that inflation would overshoot that band.
* Once there, keep it stable. I suspect it is rather harder than at a lower level (inflation is an average…).
Anyhow the point is moot for several reasons:
*Inflation is not a clear concept; there are as many "inflation" definitions as there are indices.
* Arguably "inflation" as in cost-of-living for the bottom 80% of incomes is already way above 5%; a good, cynical analyst says that if the CPI were computed as it was 30 years ago it would be abound 8%. Even without that, some of the currently defined indices are close to 5% already.
* Asset price inflation has been running at way above 5-7% for years, and low-end wage inflation has been much lower than 2% for years.
* Even if it benefited 70-80% of the population, only 50% of the population votes, and less than 5% donates to politicians. Inflation, and inflation of what to the benefit of whom, is a political choice.
"But this is stunningly naive. A majority of trades are done by programs, and it is extremely likely that several of those have clever high powered, handcrafted FOMC minute parsing and interpretation code. It can net millions by beating merely human traders to the punch."
«Let me guess, you are not a programmer? duh.
Computers are utterly worthless for interpreting anything that requires context,»
Indeed the opposite, because while comprehension of arbitrary text is very hard, comprehension of text in a limited domain is a lot easier. You are rather underestimating modern technology here, especially as this particular case is about comprehension of a very limited domain, and the enormous amount of money that "black box" traders can throw at the problem.
«like, oh say, the minutes of a meeting of a bunch of gasbags.»
Ah but FOMC releases are carefully worded to the last comma, using well established patterns and formulas. Look at this side-by-side, word-by-word comparison of two recent releases and it shall be clear how much of a special case this is:
«There was indeed program trading, but the program consisted of the hot shot traders walking out the door last Friday for the week and throwing the keys to the pimple boys and telling them to flip the switch at exactly 2:00 pm on Wednesday to run things up a bit for EOM window dressing purposes.»
Ahhhhhh, very plausible, bonuses can trump program trading anytime.
I think the consumer is almost dead broke. Most of the pople owe more money today than ever and this will reflect in the economy.
Bankruptcies have decreased because most of the people hurried to declare before the changes, but it will continue growing in the future. As long as we create low paying jobs here and move jobs overseas we will have a disaster waiting to happen. Greed is good, but it could return to haunt us.
My oint is we have the fist signs of an exhausted consumer even when interest rates are still historically low. What may happen if the FED has to conttinue raising rates?
Housing is gone from now on will only get worse, again, the consumer is the one factor that decides if housing moves up or down.


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Maybe this will help explain the street's obsession with running any and every piece of data is through a "Fed lens . . ."
As the chart below shows, monthly gains this Fed cycle show two distinct phases: From March 2003 until the June 2004, while the Fed was either easing or held rates at 1%, the S&P's total return was 39%, or a 2.7% monthly average (in Red, below).
Monthly S&P500 Gains/Losses (7 year)
Sources: Barron's and Bob Bronson
Since then, the S&P has generated weaker returns — about 18%, or less than 0.6% a month (in Blue, above).
Random Items
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Quote of the Day:
"A bull market tends to bail you out of all your mistakes. Conversely, bear markets make you PAY for your mistakes."
-Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters
Category: Federal Reserve, Investing, Psychology
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.


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I often work with people who seems shocked with their circumstance and I mean I see this when their circumstance is good!
You get a person who has done nothing but plan and think ahead. They contact me for a reality check and I tell them, hey! You don't have anything to worry about. You're going nowhere but up!
This will be obvious. A person will have such a base under them, it's amazing. I want to say, do you not recall doing everything right for the last dozen years?
I'm posting this to encourage people who showing up every day, and doing their best. You really will get somewhere, eventually.
Could you be doing better then you think you are? Where is your Saturn?
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Red Fuji at Dawn
By Monica Poling
Upon occasion, Mount Fuji appears to turn a vivid red as the rising sun glints off the snow-capped mountainside. In Japan, I've been told, it is considered to be a symbol of good luck for the fortunate few who are able to catch a glimpse of this rare occurrence.
My own quest to catch up with "Red Fuji" brought me to the shores of Awashima Island, located in Shizuoka Prefecture's Izu Peninsula.
Once a deserted island, today Awashima is home to a number of attractions, including the luxurious Awashima Hotel, which has been cleverly designed so that every room offers a waterfront view of Mt. Fuji. The surreal experience of listening to waves roll in below my balcony as I stood in the pre-dawn light waiting for Mount Fuji to wake up is probably the closest I've ever come to having a truly "Zen" experience.
Eventually the land of the rising sun demonstrated her early morning splendor, and while what I saw was probably closer to "Pink Fuji" than true red, I was still feeling pretty lucky. Especially since part of my ritual that morning involved basking in one of the hotel's onsen (hot spring) tubs, while watching the sun complete her upward trajectory over the mountain.
And while my morning at the Awashima Hotel was certainly icing on the cake, it was by no means the only time I saw Mount Fuji during my trip.
Like the thousands of visitors who flock to Japan eager to see its favorite icon, I had no idea of just what treasures could be found within Shizuoka. Located south of Mount Fuji, and just 35 minutes by Shinkansen from Tokyo at its closest point, Shizuoka serves up countless places to view Mount Fuji, often in settings that are prettier, less touristy and often less expensive than those found along the main tourist pathways.
During my visit, there was no limit to the ways I saw Mount Fuji. I saw her from "scenic turn outs" along the peninsular highway, as well as from public gardens, museum rooftops, rest areas, the top of a Ferris wheel, even while taking a spin around the aptly named Fuji Raceway. And no matter how many times I saw her, every time she'd appear in a new form, my gut would once again clench in excitement. I became somewhat infatuated, taking hundreds of photos, and developing a deeper understanding for the artist Katsushika Hokusai, who created the famous woodblock print "Red Fuji," and who was known for his obsession with the mountain.
Despite my enchantment with Mt. Fuji, however, in reality it was the setting of Shizuoka Prefecture that really made my trip to special. Because the region, with its population of just less than 4 million people, has had relatively little influence from Western visitors, it is a charming getaway that gave me the opportunity to dive into a truly authentic Japanese experience.
I was particularly taken with the Izu Peninsula, one of the four main areas that make up Shizuoka. Izu's volcanic history equates to some of the most dramatic coastal settings in Japan, while also offering some of the country's best mineral waters and natural hot springs.
The area is dotted with ancient homes, many of which have been owned by the same families for centuries. Often these homes serve as ryokan (traditional inns), and the ability to actually stay in a home that had been built some 400 years ago, made me feel like I'd stepped into a time machine. More importantly, no matter how much (or little) English was spoken at each inn, I was always treated like a valued member of the family. One of my favorite inns was the riverside Ikona Ryokan, which dates back nearly 400 years. Located just adjacent to a massive cherry blossom field, the gorgeous inn was once a retreat for noblemen who'd been ejected from the political seat in Kyoto. When I first arrived, the gracious hostess gave me a huge smile, and said something in Japanese, which felt very much like "oh my goodness, it's been such a long time since I've seen you." Of course, since I'd never been there before, the true translation was probably closer to "welcome to my home." I was particularly enchanted with Ikona's 140,000 square foot gardens, filled with 80 types of camellias, and numerous gorgeous onsen.
My second "Zen" experience in Shizuoka came at the nearby Osawa Onsen Yoda No Sho Ryokan, which also traces its family history back more than three centuries. Osawa's "luxury suite" is two-story room that once served as a storage unit for the main house. Now, the room's entire ground floor is a living museum, and afraid to touch any of the tools that quite possibly predated Shogun Tokugawa, I spent most of my time upstairs in the sleeping area.
For all the country charm Shizuoka offers, sometimes a girl just has to have her Dotour (a Japanese coffee shop, somewhat similar to Starbucks). Fortunately the area has plenty of city options, including my favorite, Atami City. Atami is a stop on the Shinkansen line, so is fairly well visited by Japanese travelers. Still, with a population of just 40,000 people, Atami still offers a great getaway from the larger city destinations.
Here, a ryokan with a more modern bent, the Atami Taikanso sits high atop the city, and provides an excellent overview of the happenings below. Although there are city views throughout the inn, the rooftop bath was so stunning, with the twinkling city lights below, that even after my skin had shriveled I had a hard time tearing myself away.
Again, the staff here treated me more like a family member than a guest. One young staff member and I got into a rather involved conversation about our mutual love of Hello Kitty, and as I was leaving for the train station, she sent me off with a brand new Hello Kitty cell phone charm.
When did that ever happen in the big city?
Getting to the Izu Peninsula from Tokyo is an easy train ride. Atami City, in the north, is just 35 minutes by high-speed rail, and Shimoda City in the south takes less than three hours on specially designed sightseeing trains known as the Super View Odoriko. The area is also serviced by the new Mount Fuji Shizuoka Airport.
Destination Information
- Shizuoka Prefecture (JNTO)
- Shizuoka Prefecture Official Travel Guide
- Izu Peninsula Practical Guide (JNTO)
- Mt. Fuji and Fuji Five Lakes Practical Guide (JNTO)
Events and Festivals in the area
- "Takoage-Gassen" Kite-Fighting Contest (Hamamatsu City in Shizuoka) on May 3 and 4, 2011
- "Yabusame" Mounted Archery Ceremony (Fujinomiya City in Shizuoka) from May 4 - 6, 2011
- Fukuroi Enshu Fireworks (Fukuroi City in Shizuoka) in the beginning of August
Travel Packages
Access Information
From Tokyo:
40 min to Atami Station by JR Tokaido Shinkansen Line, and 1h from Atami to Ito Station by JR Ito Line.
From Osaka:
2h 15 min from Shin-Osaka to Atami Station by Shinkansen.
From Tokyo:
1h 46 min from JR Tokyo to Izu-kogen Station by LR Line "Odoriko."
Or, 55 min from Tokyo to Atami Station by JR Tokaido Shinkansen Line "Kodama," and 30 min from Atami to Izu-kogen Station by JR Ito Line.
Higashi Shizuoka Station (Life size Gundam)
From Tokyo:
1h on JR Shinkasen Hikari to Shizuoka Station.
3 minutes from Shizuoka Station to Higashi Shizuoka Station (Life size Gundam) by JR-Tokaido line


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In addition to your good post: The new movie, The Hobbit, is being shot at 48 frames per second. According to Peter Jackson the sharpness of each frame makes the overall viewing experience much better as each frame has less blur due to capturing less motion. The viewer is getting much more of the available sharpness of the lens and film with only a change in the frames per second.
GOSH DANG IT, JUST SHOOT SIXTY. Cameron is shooting in 60fps from now on; why won't everyone just do that?! Sixty is already established; why use 48?


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B had a great idea, why don't I show my B Sides? The photos that I liked but didn't make it to the blog. I loved the idea, so the last day of every month I will be showing my B Sides.
Since I take photos everyday there were so many pictures to sift through. I am not quite sure if I chose all my favorites but I really liked these ones!
Today I passed a milestone, 1 full month of my 365 photo project. It hasn't always been easy but I am proud of what I accomplished.
In one month I have gained:
1) 1332 views
2) 36 subscribers
3) Most importantly: A sense of self accomplishment
Thank you to all that have supported me through this journey!
Xtina McG


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During his 20 years as head coach, Kevin DeBoer led the Waupun High School baseball team to four trips to state, capturing the state title in 2007.
- Filed Under
It was a couple of weeks before the Fourth of July and Waupun baseball coach Derrick Standke didn't think Kevin DeBoer had much time.
DeBoer, the former Warrior baseball coach who was fighting stage IV lung cancer, was told that there was a good chance he wouldn't make it past the holiday.
However, DeBoer continued to prove people wrong. Baseball kept the 20-year head coach alive, but cancer took his life on Sept. 10. He was 44 years old. ...


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It was a great place! I hadn't heard of it 'till recently, one of the boarders at the barn where I keep my horse has been out there a few times and he mentioned it to my friend and I. The trails are dirt or grass, wide, have no dangerous holes, and they are cleared well in the more wooded areas. We spent the whole morning riding and would've probably spent more time out there if we didn't have to get back to the barn by early afternoon.
I didn't see anything to indicate that there is camping anywhere on the park. There is lots of room for trailer parking, hitching rails, and water for horses. We didn't venture into the area with the walking path around the pond, so I don't really know what's over there. We just parked, unloaded, saddled, and headed straight out onto the trails.
My friend's horse is a big 'ol Shire mare. I'm sure we look hilarious when we both go out riding, her on her massive Shire and me on my teeny tiny little Quarter Horse. :P


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Thanks giving and rest
November 25, 2013 in Featured Question of the Week, Question of the Week, Spotlight Answers, Thanksgiving shopping by Brad Gabriel
A business that opens on Thanksgiving increases pressures that weaken family and community. In contrast, Hebrew and Christian scriptures place commerce at the service of family and community. We can sense the loss and sadness that come if a business yields to the temptation to brush aside traditions that embrace giving thanks and expressing gratitude on a day of rest.


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- Filed Under
The discovery of three methamphetamine labs in Delaware County, in unrelated investigations, resulted in seven arrests over a two-day period.
A Muncie man was arrested on several drug-related charges Saturday night after a witness reported seeing him emerge from his home "wearing rubber gloves and an apron, throwing away trash that was steaming," according to a probable cause affidavit.
Officers sent to the home of Christopher McIntosh, 48, at 3615 S. Walnut St., reported smelling "a strong chemical odor radiating from the house." ...