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- The Big Picture - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog -
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
Posted By Guest Author On February 26, 2013 @ 6:00 am In Federal Reserve,Think Tank | Comments Disabled
The Macroeconomic Effects of Forward Guidance
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Christina Patterson
FRBNY February 25, 2013
In this post, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, or forward guidance [1]. We estimate that a commitment to lowering future rates below market expectations can have fairly strong effects on real economic activity with only small effects on inflation.
Macroeconomists, and Federal Reserve economists in particular, face the challenge of quantifying the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Considerable research has documented the effects of surprise changes in the short‑term interest rate on a wide range of economic indicators. However, for the past few years, short‑term interest rates have effectively hit the zero lower bound so that the central bank can no longer lower its short‑term policy rate to stimulate demand. Instead, it has resorted to other tools, such as forward guidance or changes to the composition and size of the central bank's balance sheet ("quantitative easing"). The Fed has used forward guidance extensively since the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 16, 2008, when it announced a commitment to low interest rates in the future, aiming to reduce long‑term bond yields and stimulate spending throughout the economy.
In "The Forward Guidance Puzzle [2]," a recent New York Fed staff report, we quantify the macroeconomic effects of central bank announcements about future federal funds rates, using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. (If you are interested in reading more about DSGE [3] models, follow the link, or check out this primer [4].) Why bother with economic models to figure out the effects of forward guidance? Because looking at the behavior of the economy months following a policy announcement confounds the effects of policy with a multitude of other factors that affect the economy; a model is needed to isolate the effects of policy from those other factors. A further complication comes from the fact that when the FOMC announces that it expects to keep its policy rate exceptionally low for longer than market participants had anticipated, at least two things can happen. Either the market participants understand that the FOMC intends to maintain a very accommodative policy for longer than initially thought—in which case, people's expectations about economic activity and inflation should rise—or, alternatively, they interpret the FOMC statement as revealing a deterioration of economic conditions, which should lead observers to lower their expectations of future economic activity and inflation, as emphasized by Campbell et al. (2012) [5] and by Michael Woodford (2012) [6] in his recent Jackson Hole speech. Again, a model is necessary to distinguish between these two channels.
DSGE models based on the work of Frank Smets and Raf Wouters [7] and many others are in principle well suited to study the effects of forward guidance. These models have been found to fit the data reasonably well and to provide a good forecasting performance relative to that of private forecasters and reduced-form models such as VARs (see this study [8] by Marco Del Negro and Frank Schorfheide and this Liberty Street Economics post [9]). Most important, because these models represent laboratory economies, they can be used to study the impact of policy experiments never performed before.
However, while DSGE models are in principle useful in studying the economy's response to forward guidance, they can greatly overestimate this response in practice (see also the evidence provided by Carlstrom, Fuerst, and Paustian [10]). In our paper, we explore the reasons that the model-generated estimates fall wide of the mark. We are then able to adjust our model to produce reasonable estimates of the economic effects of forward guidance.
In the table below, the first row in the top and middle panels shows the baseline forecast for GDP and inflation, respectively, as of August 28, 2012. These forecasts are based on data through second-quarter 2012, as well as observations for the federal funds rate (FFR) and the Baa spread through the end of August. To incorporate the previously announced forward guidance, the baseline forecast is conditional on expectations that the model-implied FFR will equal actual market expectations for the subsequent eleven quarters. After that, the FFR is assumed to be set according to the policy rule that the model has estimated using data from 1984 on. The baseline forecast thus incorporates the market's interpretation at the end of August of the forward guidance provided about future FFR through the end of 2014. This involves an FFR at 0.4 percent at the end of 2014 and at 0.6 percent in mid-2015.
Now try extending the forward guidance in the model by announcing a commitment to maintaining the FFR in the 0 to 0.25 percent range until second-quarter 2015, that is, longer than the market was expecting on August 28. What do you get, according to the model? An unreasonably large stimulus, as shown in the second row of our table's top two panels. Under this counterfactual experiment, Q4/Q4 GDP growth would jump from 1.9 to 3.5 percent in 2012 and would reach almost 5 percent in 2013.
Why do we get such (implausibly) large effects? The model allows us to decompose the interest-rate announcement effects on the macroeconomy into two parts: 1) the effects of credible announcements about future short‑term policy rates on long‑term bond yields, and 2) the effects of the resulting change in long‑term bond yields on economic activity and inflation. Is the excess response due to an over-reaction of long‑term bond yields to interest-rate announcements, or to an excess response of output and inflation to given changes in long‑term bond yields?
The problem lies mostly in an over-reaction of long rates. The chart below shows that an extension of the forward guidance by two quarters would lead to large declines in expected short‑term rates far into the future. The blue solid line in the chart refers to the counterfactual experiment in which the FOMC commits to keeping the FFR low until second-quarter 2015. It shows that, as a result of this commitment, the short‑term interest rate is expected to deviate substantially from the baseline scenario for many years. Consequently, the model predicts a drop of 16 basis points in the five-year yield upon the announcement, and a larger decline in the ten-year yield, of as much as 25 basis points. These responses are, however, much larger than in recent experience. For instance, following the FOMC meeting of January 25, 2012, when the Committee reinforced forward guidance by announcing that it would keep the short‑term rate close to zero for an additional six quarters, five- and ten-year yields fell by only 8 and 7 basis points, respectively.
This finding suggests that the experiment conducted does not properly capture the effects of forward guidance considered by the FOMC. A possible way to obtain more plausible responses is to recognize that forward guidance provides more information about short‑term interest rates in the subsequent few years than about rates very far into the future. We thus consider an alternative experiment in which forward guidance is provided but the path of the FFR far in the future is constrained not to deviate too much from its initial path. This path of the policy rate limits the response of the ten-year bond yield so that the latter is "reasonable." In light of the effect of the January 2012 announcement, we view 10 basis points as an upper bound for the ten-year bond yield response to an extension of the "lift-off" date by another two quarters.
When we do things this way, the outcome is much more reasonable. The chart below shows the model's predictions for real GDP growth, core PCE inflation, and the FFR conditional on alternative assumptions about the future path of the interest rate. The black solid lines show the historical data and the dashed red lines show the model's baseline forecast.
In sum, the experiments we have conducted with the DSGE model suggest that a policy-driven shift in FFR market expectations in the next few years would have sizable, though reasonable, effects on real GDP growth but only a modest impact on inflation.
Postscript: On September 13, 2012, the FOMC actually extended forward guidance through mid-2015, as in our counterfactual experiment. As always, controlled experiments are hard to come by in macroeconomics, and the FOMC statement [14] of September 13 cannot—for a number of reasons—be characterized as a test of our theory. First, between August 28 (the date for which we collected market expectations for the baseline forecast) and September 13, the employment report was released. Because the news on employment was mostly bad, FFR market expectations had already adjusted to incorporate further accommodation on the part of the central bank prior to the September FOMC meeting. Moreover, the FOMC statement also contained language concerning additional long‑term asset purchases, as well as an indication that policy accommodation would continue until labor market conditions had improved. In general, it will always be hard, if not impossible, to test the predictions of DSGE models by looking at the outcome of policy counterfactuals such as the ones performed here: even if the counterfactual is implemented, it will not occur in a fully controlled environment. Nonetheless, we maintain that counterfactuals like the ones we have performed can assist policymakers in quantifying the potential effects of their policies, particularly when alternative approaches are lacking.
The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
Article printed from The Big Picture: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog
URL to article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/02/the-macroeconomic-effects-of-forward-guidance/
URLs in this post:
[1] forward guidance: http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_19277.htm
[2] The Forward Guidance Puzzle: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr574.pdf
[3] DSGE: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium
[4] this primer: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/10v16n2/1010sbor.html
[5] Campbell et al. (2012): http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/Files/Programs/ES/BPEA/2012_spring_bpea_papers/2012_spring_BPEA_campbell.pdf
[6] Michael Woodford (2012): http://kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf?sm=jh083112-4
[7] Frank Smets and Raf Wouters: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.97.3.586
[8] this study: http://newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr554.pdf
[9] this Liberty Street Economics post: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/04/forecasting-the-great-recession-dsge-vs-blue-chip.html
[10] Carlstrom, Fuerst, and Paustian: http://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/0459.html
[11] Image: http://libertystreeteconomics.typepad.com/.a/6a01348793456c970c017c34937737970b-popup
[12] Image: http://libertystreeteconomics.typepad.com/.a/6a01348793456c970c017c349379cb970b-popup
[13] Image: http://libertystreeteconomics.typepad.com/.a/6a01348793456c970c017c3598571e970b-popup
[14] FOMC statement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20120913a.htm
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Copyright © 2008 The Big Picture. All rights reserved.


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Fordham Law Alumni Association Announces Medal of Honor RecipientsMarch 03, 2006
Two graduates will be presented with the Fordham Law Alumni Association's Medal of Honor at Saturday's Annual Luncheon at the Waldorf-Astoria.
Maureen Scannell Bateman '68 and the Hon. Denny Chin '78 will both be presented with the prestigious award on Saturday. Dean William Michael Treanor said the School is pleased to honor two members of the Fordham family during its centennial celebration year.
"Judge Chin and Maureen Bateman embody the qualities of talent, hard work, ability, and service that are the hallmark of a Fordham education," Treanor said. "They are graduates who uniquely blend a love of Fordham and careers in the law that have nobly served the American democratic enterprise."
Maureen Scannell Bateman is a partner at Holland & Knight, resident in both the New York and Boston offices. Prior to joining Holland & Knight, Ms. Bateman served as
Senior Special Counsel to the Bank of America to conduct an independent review of the mutual fund policies and practices.
Before joining Bank of America, Ms. Bateman had three decades of experience in the legal and financial services fields. She served as executive vice president and general counsel of State Street Corporation, managing director and general counsel for the United States Trust Corporation of New York, and as an associate attorney in trusts and estates with Davis Polk and Wardwell in Manhattan, New York.
Judge Denny Chin was appointed a U.S. District Judge for the Southern District of New York in 1994, the first Asian-American appointed as a U.S. District Judge outside of the Ninth Circuit.
Judge Chin began his distinguished legal career as a clerk for the Honorable Henry F. Werker, United States District Judge for the Southern District of New York. He went on to Davis Polk & Wardwell until his 1982 appointment as an Assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York. In 1986, he started a law firm, Campbell, Patrick & Chin, with two colleagues from the U.S. Attorney's Office. In 1990, he joined the law firm Vladeck, Waldman, Elias & Engelhard, P.C., where he specialized in labor and employment law representing employees and unions.
Email: email@example.com

subset: commoncrawl


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Around the time that the Life Savers Co. candy plant opened in 1967, television commercials touted Life Savers as "a part of living."
All the Life Savers sold in this country are made at the 429,000-square-foot factory. Invented by candymaker Clarence Crane in 1912 and featuring such well-known flavors as Butter Rum and Wint-O-Green, Life Savers are closely tied to Holland, a popular western Michigan tourist destination settled by Dutch immigrants in the mid-19th century.
For years, the factory's highly sought, well-paying positions were considered jobs for life. But after 35 years of being a part of living for so many people, the Life Savers factory is slowly dying - parent company Kraft Foods Inc. is phasing out production until the plant closes in the summer of 2003.
To save money, the manufacture of Life Savers is being transferred to Canada. The move has incited much anger and debate among the 600 unionized plant workers, and among local officials who wonder about the reasons for the move.
The irony of exporting the production of the all-American candy isn't lost on employees who will lose their jobs.
"It's like, gosh, what a slap in the face!" said Gina Martin, who at age 39 has already worked at the plant 21 years. "I mean, Life Savers is an (American) icon. It is. It's synonymous with baseball and apple pie."
Martin's experience as a candymaker provides her with little comfort these days, as she faces a future as an unemployed single mother of two young children.
She will receive 21 weeks of severance pay - one week for each year of service - plus six months of health insurance and several thousand dollars in bonus pay if she remains at Life Savers until she is no longer needed.
Cathy Pernu, a spokeswoman for Northfield, Ill.-based Kraft, said several factors went into the decision, announced Jan. 8, to move Life Savers production from Holland to a plant near Montreal.
Among them: the company's desire to improve efficiency and take advantage of Canada's lower sugar and corrugated paper prices. But the biggest factor was the fact that the plant is underutilized, Pernu said.
Before Kraft parent Philip Morris Companies Inc. could purchase Nabisco Holdings Corp., which owned Life Savers Co., federal regulators required Nabisco to sell the plant's Bubble Yum and Breath Savers lines.
Pernu denied published reports that the lower cost of sugar in Canada was the main reason for the move. Jack Roney, director of economics and policy analysis for the American Sugar Alliance in Washington, an industry group, said wages, taxes and energy costs, among other factors, also had to be considered before relocating production.
"A pack of Life Savers, at least here in my neighborhood, costs 60 cents at the grocery store shelf. I've calculated that the cost to Life Savers of the sugar in that ... is about one penny," Roney said. "So I would suggest that it's the other 59 cents that is driving candy manufacturers' decisions on where to locate."
Labor costs are one likely consideration. John Boyd, president of The Boyd Co. in Princeton, N.J., a consultant who helps companies select plant locations, estimated Kraft will be able to pay workers at the Quebec plant about $3 per hour less than what the Holland plant workers get.
Al McGeehan, the mayor of Holland, which has about 35,000 residents, said the city never had a chance to try to save the plant.
"At no point in time was Holland offered an opportunity to say, 'Here is what we can do,"' he said.
Not so, said Pernu, the Kraft spokeswoman.
"Sometime last year, our local manager did approach the mayor and Holland officials, looking for ways to take costs of manufacturing out of the system and try to make the plant more competitive," she said. "And at the same time, the plant was implementing internal initiatives to reduce costs. Unfortunately, these actions taken locally could not overcome the disadvantages to the plant."


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Nick Toon already has the pedigree as a second generation NFL receiver, now he's looking to put it to use in New Orleans.
- Filed Under
As the son of former New York Jets All Pro wide receiver Al Toon, he's got an NFL pedigree. Check.
At 6-feet-4, 218 pounds, he's got size and certainly looks the part. Check, check.
On paper and with the eye test, New Orleans wide receiver Nick Toon seemingly possesses all the traits to make him a shoe-in to contribute this season. However, his most valuable trait could be one that can't be measured, quantified or given as a birthright. ...


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FILE- Brandon Scott Lavergne, the man charged with first degree murder in the cases of Mickey Shunick and Lisa Pate, is escorted to the Lafayette Parish Courthouse by Lt. Jack Lightfoot, left, and Detective Stephen Bajat for a hearing Monday morning in Lafayette. By Leslie Westbrook August 17, 2012
- Filed Under
Brandon Scott Lavergne, the confessed killer of UL co-ed Mickey Shunick, is asking a judge for a gag order , for the names of witnesses who testified against him at grand jury hearings and the transcript of a secretly-recorded meeting with his ex-wife while he was jailed in 2004.
He also alleges someone at the Louisiana State Penitentiary opened mail he received from the court and removed some of the legal documents that were supposed to be enclosed.
Lavergne filed the additional petitions on Jan. 22 in 15th Judicial District Court. The documents were in the possession of Judge Herman Clause ...


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Will.i.am's Theory About 3D Printing People Really Makes You Think
Noted hologram will.i.am once again has some really advanced ideas about the future and he's gracious enough to share them. This time, he's waxing poetic about 3D printing. »
Noted hologram will.i.am once again has some really advanced ideas about the future and he's gracious enough to share them. This time, he's waxing poetic about 3D printing. »
Jimmy Fallon's beloved, perpetually disgusted character Sara as teamed up with her headgear-clad friend mir.i.am for this club banger, "Ew." This may or may not be will.i.am's finest work to date. »
Oh my GOD, you guys. Oh my god. Apparently Pharrell tried to set up a YouTube channel called "I Am Other" and then Will.i.am sent him a cease and desist because he thinks that HE OWNS THE RIGHTS TO EVERYTHING WITH AN "I AM" IN IT. »
Rihanna has filed a $5 million lawsuit against Topshop for using images of her on T-shirts without her consent. Apparently Team Ri-Ri tried to negotiate with Topshop for the last eight months — and spent at least $1 million on litigation — but they offered her a measly $5,000 and told her to do her damndest, says a… »
As the Rihanna bacchanal—Rihacchanal?—known as the Diamonds tour continues to suffer under the weight of four concert cancellations (Boston, March 10; Baltimore, March 12; Houston, April 15; Dallas, April 16) and late publicity appearances, the rumor mill was fed by her paparazzi-snapped exit from a Beverly Hills… »
Woot! After a five-month leave of absence to undergo a bone marrow transplant for a rare blood disorder, Robin Roberts has returned to Good Morning America, opening with: "I have been waiting 174 days to say this: 'Good Morning America." She added: "I keep pinching myself and I realize this is real. This is actually… »
Here are graphic photos of Kourtney Kardashian birthing her new child Penelope Scotland Disick, which are screenshots of the televised delivery from the season finale of Keeping Up With The Kardashians yesterday. And all of the Kardashians were there (even brother Rob), and you were there, and you were there, and … »
Any A-lister who signs on to do a turn on Glee should clench their buttcheeks in preparation for the über-diva behavior from Lea Michele, yet they always seem disgruntled and surprised. WHY IS ANYONE SURPRISED? Kate Hudson, currently filming her guest stint as Rachel Berry's dance teacher, told some source that… »
The day after her 30th birthday, Leann Rimes has checked into a 30-day treatment center to "cope with anxiety and stress." Over the last year, Rimes has been the continued subject of intense body bullying and rumors of anorexia, and her representative confirms that she is not being treated for an eating disorder.… »
Rihanna and Not A Law Student After All Rob Kardashian spent a night in Burbank, California playing some go-karts (which Rihanna won, naturally) and then heading to a nightclub called Playhouse. Ri-Ri. Unspeakable gladness at the thought that you might be done with Chris Brown fills every cranny of the cockles of my… »
Kristen Stewart has been dropped from the Snow White and the Huntsman sequel after Rupert Sanders' wife Liberty Ross made it clear that Sanders would not be working with her again if he had any interest in Gorilla Gluing the shattered Chia pet of their marriage back together. »
Will.i.am likely delighted many a child when he appeared on Sesame Street, but none more than little Atticus. His mom Tresa says: »
22-year-old Australian actress Mia Wasikowska is one of the two actresses being considered to play acerbic District 7 tribute Johanna Mason in the Hunger Games trilogy, a character who appears in both Catching Fire and Mockingjay and is more or less side by side with Finnick Odair as the most important bit of upcoming… »
Remember the photos Megan Fox published last week, "proving" that she does not use Botox? Well! Some doctors saw those images. "Looks like Megan is just as talented with Photoshop as she is in entertainment," says plastic surgeon Dr. Nicholas Vendemia. "Those lines on her forehead are totally fake. …Muscles in the… »
The Royal Wedding is over, but the weird commemorative crap keeps on coming! Since there's a chance you might forget the epic televised event so relentlessly covered by the media, you'd better get yourself a souvenir. Luckily, you have options. »Okay, so this is not a doll. This is a . The . It is made by The…
Even if you don't like Will, this should put a smile on your face. Bert wears glasses! »


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Music director O P Nayyar passes away
28th Jan 2007 18.50 IST
By Agencies
Music director O P Nayyar , best known for classic songs like "Jhumka Gira Re" and "Pukarta Chala Hoon Mein", died of cardiac arrest at his home in Thane on Sunday. He was 81.
Rani Nakhwa, with whose kin Nayyar was living for over 10 years after being estranged from his family, is quoted as saying: "He was perfectly alright until 3:30 pm, when he went to the toilet and collapsed inside. He was dead before we could summon medical help."
Born on January 16, 1926 in Lahore (now in Pakistan), Omkar Prasad Nayyar got his first break as a music composer in the film Kaneez (1949).
Director Guru Dutt's Aar Paar (1954) was his first major success. This led to his successful partnership with Dutt on films like Mr And Mrs 55 and CID.
As news of his death spread, a pall of gloom descended on Bollywood, where Nayyar was regarded as one of the greatest composers of all time even though he had not been in the limelight for close to three decades.
Filmmaker Mahesh Bhatt described Nayyar -- who was always seen in public in white attire and a hat -- as an audacious man who was a king in his time.
" Asha Bhosle owes whatever she is to him. The distinct sensuality that was injected into Asha's singing was the contribution of this extraordinary man," Bhatt said.
Extensive use of the typical Punjabi rhythm was the main characteristic of Nayyar's music, and among his evergreen tunes were "Kahin Pe Nigahen Kanhi Pe Nishana" (CID), "Mang Ke Saath Tumhara" (Naya Daur) and "Ello Main Hari Piyan" (Aar Paar).
O P Nayyar
Mahesh Bhatt
Asha Bhosle
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News: Flying Lotus announces new album, 'Until The Quiet Comes', featuring Thom Yorke collaboration
Pioneer of the new West Coast beats movement Flying Lotus has announced his new album, 'Until The Quiet Comes', will be out in the first week of October.
The album features a collaboration with Radiohead frontman Thom Yorke, their second collaboration since the singer appeared on "…And The World Laughs With You" from FlyLo's 2010 album 'Cosmogramma'.
More details are expected emerge later this week, so stay tuned!
Flying Lotus' 'Cosmogramma' is out now on Warp Records
Buy Album
Posted in News on July 18th, 2012 - By Leo / Tags: Electronic, Experimental, Flying Lotus, Hip Hop, Radiohead, Thom Yorke, Warp Records


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On Monday at an event in San Francisco, Microsoft unveiled the final pieces of its Windows Phone 8 product. Previously, the company had detailed a number of features of the update to is mobile platform, focusing on developer tools and capabilities. Today, the consumer side of the software was shown off. This post is divided into two sections: First, a short overview of Windows Phone 8, with commentary on how it fits into the Windows Phone brand, and the larger smartphone market as a whole. Following, we'll dig into a number of specific features of Windows Phone 8, highlighting what we find the most important, and relevant. Read the full story at The Next Web.
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"Everything you need to know about Windows Phone 8" by @ShellyPalmer


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You should not use this medicine if you have had an allergic reaction to norethindrone, ethinyl estradiol, or ferrous fumarate, or if you are pregnant or have unusual vaginal bleeding. You should not use this medicine if you have uncontrolled high blood pressure, certain heart problems, or diabetes with kidney, eye, nerve, or blood vessel damage. Do not use this medicine if you have breast cancer (now or in the past), liver disease (including tumors or cancer), or certain types of headaches. You should not use this medicine if you have a history of blood clots, heart attacks, or strokes. Do not use this medicine if you smoke cigarettes or if you are over the age of 35 years.
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The best way to describe a brand evangelist is a loyal customer who feels so strongly and passionate about a brand that they will market that brand to others with no gain to themselves. It is based on a deep connection with the brand.
Lego's and Brand Evangelism – This is from an article which appeared in the Huffington Post
Seven-year-old Luka Apps spent his Christmas money on the LEGO Ninja set. Luka decided to take the Ninja set to the mall against his father's advice with the end result being that Luca lost the Ninja set – A tragedy. Luka decided to send an email to the folks at LEGO asking for a replacement – he got an email back from Lego's. A short paraphrased excerpt from the Lego's Email –
"Luca I talked with my boss and he said that we can't send you a replacement. But I called Sensei Wu and he said your father is a wise man and should always listen to him. I will send you a replacement."
The Lego's email made it onto the social media, generating literally thousands of Brand Evangelist, with a 5 year old granddaughter who loves Lego's I am one of them. They also have a seven year old that is a client for generations to come.
Vehicle Dynamics Institute (VDI) and Brand Evangelism – Recently VDI received a call from a company asking for training information; although a substantial company (Fortune 500) they were just starting up an EP program for their executives. The Security Director mentioned that her peers (VDI Brand Evangelist) had strongly suggested she talk to Joe Autera from VDI.
During the conversation Joe Autera mentions the IRS regulations concerning protective services, he sends her the IRS information and puts the Security Director in contact with her peers (others responsible for the safety and security of their executives) that could help her with the IRS issue, plus Joe answered a myriad of questions all of this-FOR FREE. A few days later Joe receives a phone call from the security director thanking VDI for making her look good, mentioning that VDI has a client for life – her words not VDI's.( Actually she said that VDI made her look like a rock star)
In a short time frame Joe created another VDI Brand Evangelist – there is no price you can put on that. This scenario happens about once a week. Joe and VDI's brand is that – You will get a straight answer not an answer that will lead you to buy the VDI services.
Again – A brand evangelist is a loyal client who feels so strongly and passionate about your brand that they will market you to others. We (The old Scotti School and now VDI) have been creating brand evangelists for decades – we work at it – we spend time and effort learning the needs of our clients – and then give it them – FREE.
An article by the guy who develops Brand Evangelism for companies and individuals Larry Snow – but Larry cannot develop Brand Evangelism if there is no Brand.


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- Authentic Rabbit Fur
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- Brand: FRR
- Imported
FRR Sheared Rabbit Fur Earmuffs in WhiteWhite Sheared Rabbit Fur Earmuffs with color matching sheared rabbit band. Real fur winter ear muffs are a must-have accessory this season. These stylish muffs are guaranteed to keep your heart and soul toasty warm. One size fits all.
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New Orleans Concierge Desk
535 Tchoupitoulas st, New Orleans, LA 70130
Property Description
We proudly "achieve the impossible" and give individual attention to any request you have, no matter how unique, relying on our extensive list of contacts with local merchant and service providers. Our goal is to provide you with a New Orleans city tour experience that you will never forget and will in fact want to repeat!
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MINNEAPOLIS - If you prefer two wheels over four, the Minneapolis Convention Center has you covered this weekend.
The Progressive International Motorcycle Show kicks off Friday and runs through Sunday.
The show features some of the newest technology in the industry, including the 2013 line of electric bikes from Zero Motorycycles.
In addition, the XDL Street Jam stunt team will strut its stuff. The nationally touring team features some familiar faces. Aaron Colton, originally from Shakopee and Aaron Twite, originally from Cloquet, are on the team. "I know there's going to be a lot of people showing up, a lot of fans I haven't seen in a long time. I'm really excited to be local," Colton says, who's sponsored by Red Bull.
For Twite, it will be the first time performing in front of his family. "I've been able to go all around the world and see and meet people that I would have never been able to do had I continued down a career path. Every day is an adventure and every year gets better and better," he says.
Chris Tice, also with XDL Street Jam, is from St. Cloud.
All three guys spent the morning with KARE 11's Bryan Piatt and gave us a sneak peak of the show on KARE 11 Sunrise.
(Copyright 2013 by KARE. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. )


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Several people have said that my photos look great and they would like to learn the technique. So I decided to write a series of posts which will reveal my "secrets". I have already written a post named How to take good macro photos which I recommend to read also because it covers some of the basic requirements of macro photography which are important to master because you need to shoot right to get a good result.
I often isolate photographed objects (mostly rock samples) on white. I do it because it looks nice and professional if people see only the things I want to show them. There are really many ways to accomplish that and I am not saying that my method is the best but it works for me. The most professional way to do it is to arrange a special studio with powerful scattered lighting and white backgrounds all around the photographed object. If you do it this way, you could take photos isolated on white with your camera and need almost no photoshopping later. However, this is not my approach because I often find myself in very uncomfortable conditions. Sometimes in the field, sometimes in a dimly lighted museum warehouse with very little room, etc.
If I want to isolate photos on white later, then I take care to organize white background behind the object in the first place. Easiest way to do it is to place a white sheet of paper (A4 format is large enough in most cases) behind the object. It serves two very important purposes. I want to cut out the object later and if the background is already white, I can do it relatively easily in Photoshop without leaving ugly colored rims to the object. If my background is gray for example, then I have lots of trouble later because I need to manually go over the entire outline of the isolated object to isolate it properly which wastes lots of time. I am not even talking about red or blue backgrounds which is a nightmare.
Another reason for using white background is to get the correct white balance. It is difficult to judge whether your photos have right colors without a reference surface. White background is good for that because I know that it has to be white on my photos and if it is bluish or reddish instead, then I can do something about it. This is also very easy to correct in Photoshop. The issue of white balance is of great importance in photography and definitely deserves an entire post dedicated to it (maybe I will write about it some other day). The method I described above may not be the best or most professional but you can be sure that if you have something in your photo that you are sure has to be white, then you are in a good position to get the colors correct.
Now we have a photo of a rock sample and a white piece of paper behind it. Now what? First of all, I hope you read the other article I mentioned before. There I listed several key points like the necessity to use tripod and additional light sources if you take the photos indoors. Underexposed photos with no focus are not worth our time. Isolating on white will not make them any better. It is necessary to stress these points because these are the most common mistakes beginners do: they do not have enough light and their camera shakes while they are photographing.
I will leave most of the tricks for my next article: How to quickly enhance your pictures. Here I just cover the method I use to remove the background. In reality this is one of the last things I do after correcting white balance and other important steps. I will open the photo in Photoshop and select the Magic Wand Tool (hotkey: W). I use it to wipe over the background to outline the sample. Photoshop understands it easily if there is enough contrast between the background and the object. However, it almost never makes a perfect job. You have to zoom in and go over the entire outline of the object and make necessary adjustments where needed. To do that press Alt (these guidelines are for Windows users, Mac commands are similar but different keys are used) and wipe over the object to enlarge the selection or Shift to subtract from it. Note that we are really selecting or outlining the object now, not the background.
But in many cases Photoshop can not properly understand you and you have to take a full control of the process. To do that select Lasso Tool (L) and just draw a line around the object as closely as possible. You have to zoom in to do it. Here again you should press and hold down the Alt key if you wish to add and Shift key if you wish to subtract. It may seem complicated at first but experiment a little and quite soon you feel comfortable doing it. After you have correctly outlined the object, you need to inverse the selection because we want to remove the background, not the object we are working on. To do that, choose Select -> Inverse. Now we have the background selected. To remove it, just click Edit -> Fill and choose white color and take care that the opacity is set to 100% and press OK. It means that we do not actually remove the background. We just paint it white but this is exactly what we need at the moment. You can also choose black background. Sometimes it works well with light-colored objects.
It was as simple as that. There are other methods to do the same but for me it seems to be the easiest one. In the next article I will show you some easy tricks which will make your photos clearer and reveal their real beautiful colors.


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Emergency NumbersPhone Book (Must be on-campus or have a valid network account)
Ryan O'Gara
Ryan is an ambassador who studied abroad in Chile
Major: Biology
Why did you choose to study abroad and how did you decide on this program?
I chose to study abroad because it sounded like a great opportunity for me to step outside of my comfort zone and really push myself to grow as an individual. I also am planning on going to Medical School in the future and I think it is crucial to have at least an understanding of Spanish. Because of this I knew I wanted to go on a program that had a Spanish speaking aspect of it and from the research I did Chile seemed like the best fit for me. From what I heard and from what people told me you really build a community with the others in your group and with your host family.
Briefly describe a specific cultural experience you had on your trip that made a lasting impression.
The biggest cultural experience that I had was just living with my host family. I could talk about Rosy and Manuel until the end of time. When we first arrived it didn't feel real to me that I was about to be in this country for the next 4 months or so. It was terrifying for me and I was nervous who I would be spending these next four months with and what they were going to be like. I consider myself very fortunate to have been with the family that I was. They treated me as their very own son from the very first day, which is something I did not expect at all. They took me out with them to a restaurant, or to dinner with their children, as their children were in their 30's. Just like any mother, Rosy worried about me all the time. Every time I would leave the house, she would always tell me to have fun, but be careful, whether that was going out of the country or just to the beach. Even now I receive messages from my family members there asking how I am doing, and Rosy still wondering if I am doing well. I could not have asked for a better family, and I plan on one day fulfilling my host mom's request that I return when I am married so she can approve of my wife.
Describe your overall study abroad experience.
It was incredibly challenging for me to start to speak in Spanish with native speakers and not to be afraid to make a mistake, or saying the wrong word. My family also really challenged me to be myself and to grow. Several times my mom would talk to me after a meal, starting off simple, about my day or what I was going to do over the weekend just to get me to open up. About halfway or more through the trip I realized that these little talks had grown to sometimes an hour or more. Overall my experience could not have been better. I have zero regrets about deciding to go abroad or about the experience while I was in Chile. It was difficult at first, but the benefits and the life experience definitely outweighed the hardships
Based on your experiences abroad, what are some of the benefits of spending a semester abroad? How has studying abroad contributed to your personal, academic, and professional development?
The main benefit was improving my Spanish. Learning to both understand and speak the language on a daily, conversational basis. When I arrived there my family teased me a little because I would only say "Si" or "No" (which means "yes" or "no" in Spanish), but after a month or so I found myself having entire conversations in their language. I think this aspect was really important because in class here, at least for myself, you only really get to read and write and there is not a lot of speaking until you get to the upper division classes. I never really spoke consistently until I was abroad and that improved my Spanish tremendously. Going abroad really helped me to open up as an individual and express my ideas in classroom, socialize more and be more confident in my Spanish ability and as a person.
What advice can you offer for CSB/SJU students who are considering or planning to study abroad?
First of all I would say if you are only considering studying abroad right now, you should definitely take the risk and do it! Second a person need to study the programs and see which one is the best fit for them. I would recommend if the person has been studying a language, that you go on a program that uses that language or at least has the opportunity to use that language. Lastly you really need to budget your money and start saving now. These trips can be expensive, and although there is financial aid available, I would still start saving as much money as one can.
Do you have questions about studying abroad in Chile? Email firstname.lastname@example.com.


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A Comparison of Data Mining Techniques for Credit Scoring in Banking: A Managerial Perspective
Ince, Huseyin, Aktan, Bora, Journal of Business Economics and Management
1. Introduction
One of the main tasks of a bank is to lend money. As a financial intermediary, one of its roles is to reduce lending risks. Bank lending is an art as well as a science. Success depends on techniques used, knowledge and on an aptitude to assess both credit-worthiness of a potential borrower and the merits of the proposition to be financed. In recent years, banks have increasingly used credit-scoring techniques to evaluate the loan applications they receive from consumers (Blochlinger and Leippold 2006; Vojtek and Kocenda 2006; Macerinskiene and Ivaskeviciute 2008; Karan and Arslan 2008). Since severe competition and rapid growth in the consumer credit market, credit scoring models have been extensively used for the credit admission evaluation. Credit scoring is a method of modeling potential risk of credit applications (Vojtek and Kocenda 2006; Zhao 2007; Avery et al. 2004; Bodur and Teker 2005; Crook and Banasik 2004; Jacobson and Roszbach 2003). Credit scoring models have been developed by the financial institution and researchers in order to solve the problems involved during the evaluation process.
In the first beginning, financial institutions always utilized the rules or principles built by the analysts to decide whom to give credit. Since the number of applicants increase tremendously, it is impossible in both economic and man power terms to evaluate the credit applications. Several quantitative methods have been developed for credit admission decision. The credit scoring models are developed to categorize applicants as either accepted or rejected with respect to the applicants' characteristics. The objective of credit scoring models is to assign credit applicants to either a 'good credit' group that is likely to repay financial obligation or a 'bad credit' group whose application will be denied because of its high possibility of defaulting on the financial obligation (Lee et al. 2006). The statistical methods, nonparametric statistical methods, and artificial intelligence approaches have been proposed to support the credit decision (Thomas 2000). Credit scoring problems are basically in the domain of the more general and widely discussed classification problems (Lee et al. 2002).
The classification problems have long played important roles in business related decision making due to its wide applications in decision support, financial forecasting, fraud detection, marketing strategy, process control, and other related fields (Chen et al. 1996; Fayyad et al. 1996; Lee at al. 2006). The classification problem can be solved by using different techniques ranging from statistical methods to artificial intelligence algorithms.
Statistical methods, including regression, linear and nonlinear discriminant analysis, logit and probit models were most commonly applied to construct credit scoring models (Vojtek and Kocenda 2006; Lee et al. 2002; Lee et al. 2006). The most popular methods applied to credit scoring models are linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression and their variations. They are relatively easy to implement and are able to generate straightforward results that can be readily interpreted. However, there are some limitations associated with their applications in credit scoring. First of all, these methods are not effective for problems with high-dimensional inputs and small sample size. Most importantly, these techniques rely on linear separability and normality assumptions. Furthermore, it is difficult to automate the modeling process and design a continuous update flow. According to Yang (2007), the static models usually fail to adapt when environment or population changes over the time. Therefore, these models may need to be rebuilt from scratch.
In addition to these classical methodologies, artificial intelligence techniques have been applied to credit scoring. Practitioners and researchers have developed a variety of techniques for credit scoring, which involve k-nearest neighbor (Henley and Hand 1996), decision trees (Lee et al. …


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Ex-Indiana policeman kills ex-girlfriend, then self...
Created by kblakeslee on 3/4/2013 6:26:41 PM
GOSHEN, Ind. (AP) _ Authorities in northern Indiana say a former police officer shot and killed a former girlfriend in a parking lot before taking his own life.
They say 51-year-old John Eric Haitsma killed 48-year-old Millicent Morros and then himself shortly before 8 a.m. Monday in a downtown parking lot in Goshen, where both resided. The shooting occurred after a brief discussion between the two. Morros was on her way to work as a paralegal with a law firm at the time.
Police say the two formerly were in a relationship together.
They say Haitsma resigned from the Goshen Police Department in 1998 to run a landscaping business in the city about 25 miles southeast of South Bend.


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Russell urine test case, with a urinometer, 1900.
Image number: 10289225
Made by Allen and Hanbury, London. By the 19th century uroscopy - the simple physical inspection of a urine sample, was giving way to urinology - the analysis, often chemical, of the dozens of substances in urine. The 'chemical profile' of urine can help diagnose numerous illnesses of the blood, kidneys, digestive system, and hormonal glands. This urine test kit includes a urinometer, which measures the specific gravity, or density, of urine ( it can be used in the diagnosis of diabetes), a wick burner to heat urine, and litmus papers for acidity testing.
- Image number:
- 10289225
- Credit:
- Science Museum/Science & Society Picture Library
- Date taken:
- 20 October 2003 12:48
- Image rights:
- Science Museum
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4-Way Valve, 1/4 FNPT - Moeller
This item is found in the following Product Families
Moeller Four-Way Valve
Connect up to 3 permanent fuel tanks to a single motor using the Moeller Four-Way Valve. Though it connects 3 tanks, it allows fuel withdrawal only …
Valve- 4-way brass 1/4in fnpt
Provides for withdrawal from one tank at a time only Connects 3 permanent tanks to a single motor Valves meet ABYC H-24 requirements and provide anti-siphon protection
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So the question has been raised to atheists: if life is the product of random chance and there is no divine authority and life is ultimately what you make it, then why do you care what people believe one way or another? Specifically in regard to a belief in God.
One response to the question is commentary on monotheism's Apocalyptic "literalists" — people who sincerely want to see the world end and are actively trying to bring about its destruction.
Atheists see it as their moral duty to attack the root of such beliefs — which just happens to be belief in God. And it's fair to say this is all part of the Atheistic consensus.
So atheists are literally trying to save the world … delusions of grandeur, anyone?
Time and time again I can't help but notice the parallels between atheists and religious types: the bitter hostility towards anyone who doesn't just choke down their ideology; the inconsistent belief system and subsequent rationalizations that sidestep the issue by exploiting our human emotions.… Read the rest


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'Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues' attracts mixed reviews
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opened Wednesday to mixed - but mostly positive - reviews.
Everyone seemed to agree on one thing: this is a silly, silly movie.
The long-awaited sequel to Will Ferrell's silly take on the local news business in the 1970s scored 75 percent from critics and 78 from audiences on Rotten Tomatoes, which scores movies based on reviews posted on the web.
"For every minute spent laughing, there's 10 seconds spent suppressing your disappointment and a further 10 milliseconds banishing a tiny suspicion that even A1 maybe wasn't quite as good as you remembered it," wrote Peter Bradshaw at The Guardian.
Roger Ebert was a bit harsher, awarding the movie 2 out of 5 stars. "There are a handful of strong sequences … But these are bright spots in a film that's just a couple of notches above an off-brand 'SNL' time-waster."
The Washington Post said that the movie promises "plenty of laughs and plenty of groans." And USA Today called it "wacky fun."
Watch the video below for ABCNews' review:


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Beat Dry Skin
By Marisa Belger for Completely You
I often find myself running my fingers across my 4-year-old's skin, marveling at the silky softness that is a preschooler. My adult existence is far from supple. To keep my skin from morphing into that of rhinoceros, I beat back dryness with two key tools: a scrubby mitt -- kind of like an extremely rough washcloth -- and a sugar scrub. Some days I use the mitt. Some days I scrub.
When I choose to scrub, my scrub of choice is Faerie Made's Lavender Shea Sugar Scrub. Like every beauty product that makes its way into my bathroom, this scrub is truly good enough to eat -- though I don't recommend that. Made from a rich combination of cane sugar, brown sugar, shea butter, cocoa butter and jojoba oil, this scrub is a superstar multitasker, sloughing away dry patches and following up with intense moisturizing. And in true time-saving fashion, no follow-up lotion is necessary after a rubdown with this scrub.
For more great health and lifestyle content, check out the rest of Completely You
Marisa Belger Marisa Belger is Completely You's beauty and lifestyle blogger. She penned the natural beauty and sustainable living column "GreenDAY" for TODAYShow.com, and her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure Family, Natural Health and Prevention.
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User Tip: If you're unsure of your vehicle type, you may skip the machine type selection box.
Please select make, model and yearChain Guides
Chain guides made from high quality material at the right price and selection.
Josh in WV
Fits perfectly and looks good. Hopefully it never needs to do its job.Read All Reviews
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The Hammerhead case saver is a great fit and has a beveled face to keep the mud and grass from packing up in the chain/case gap. It looks good enough to be on a works ride.Read All Reviews
Josh in WV
I got polisport guides and rollers. Very inexpensive and should do the trick for a wear item.Read All Reviews
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Seem to last a long timeRead All Reviews
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does exactly what it should, perfect alignment, no issuesRead All Reviews
Jon in NC
Replaced OEM upper roller, no issuesRead All Reviews


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1. Running Games
Both defenses have the ability to rush the passer. In fact, it was surprise many to learn that the Saints actually have more sacks than a speed defensive team like Seattle with 37 to 33 for the Seahawks. As a result, it's going to crucial for both teams to be able to run it, not just to protect the passer but as an offensive weapon as well.
2. The special teams
So often in games between juggernaut teams, it's not the stars that decide the winner, but rather factors like the special teams. The weather isn't expected to be good and the Saints' return men are already having difficulty holding on to punts indoors in recent games. Tavaris Cadet played a huge role in the Saints' win over the 49ers with a long kickoff return. Don't be surprised if the return game is big for one of these teams tonight.
3. Seahawks secondary
With starters Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond out, it's going to be interesting to see how negatively affected the Seahawks' secondary actually is on the field. If it is, you would think that Drew Brees and the Saints' passing game would be able to exploit it. To do so, however, it may first require running the ball and protecting the passer.
4. It's Monday night
The Saints have won nine straight Monday Night games and the Seahawks have won 13 straight home games. Something's got to give. The only time the Saints have played poorly in prime time in recent years was a trip west to Denver on a Sunday night. This is a much bigger game in terms of the NFC playoff picture, but it's an even longer trip.
5. Running QB
The Saints' defense and the fans might as well brace for it. Facing Seattle's Russell Wilson tonight is the beginning of three straight weeks of trying to slow down mobile quarterbacks, including two bouts with Carolina's Cam Newton. With Wilson it's more about him extending plays to produce big completions down field, in addition to his rushing abilities. With Newton, it's a whole bunch of both.


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A group of Zoarites traveled to Germany to visit sites associated with the Society of Separtists of Zoar.
A delegation from Zoar got the celebrity treatment during a recent visit to southern Germany to visit sites associated with the Society of Separatists of Zoar, which founded the historic community in 1817.
"They rolled out the red carpet for us," said Scott Gordon of Zoar, a descendant of some of Zoar's earliest settlers, the Cappel and Sturm families.
The tour, sponsored by the Zoar Community Association that operates the historic village for the Ohio Historical Society, is expected to help garner international support for preserving Zoar.
The village's future is uncertain because the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is conducting a study to determine how to repair the aging Zoar Levee, which protects the village from flooding. Possible options include moving the town to higher ground — or demolishing it.
While on their recent tour of Germany, the Zoar delegation visited Merklingen, the birthplace of Zoar leader Joseph Bimeler. There, the group attended a reception in their honor. At the event, they were served noodle cake, "which is only baked for special occasions," Gordon said.
They also met with members of the Bimeler family still living in Germany.
"The people over there were very excited to see people from Zoar," he said.
Residents of Baden-Wurttemberg — the German state they visited — are more familiar with the story of Zoar than residents of Tuscarawas County are familiar with the experiences of the Separatists in Germany, explained Jon Elsasser, president of the Zoar Community Association, which sponsored the trip. Students there learn about the history of the Separatist movement in school.
The 12 members of the group left the United States on Sept. 18 and returned Sept. 27. Five of them are direct descendants of the Zoarites and two are descended from Bimeler.
They visited several towns in which the Separatists lived.
"The area is really beautiful, lots of apple orchards and grapes growing," Gordon said. "All the houses are neatly taken care of and have red tile roofs. They were built to last a couple thousand years. You don't see any slums."
Deb Deal of Bolivar, descendant of early Zoar settler Stephan Huber, was interviewed by a reporter for a Stuttgart newspaper when the group visited the Hohenasperg Fortress, a prison where many Separatists — including Huber — were held because of their religious beliefs. They faced persecution because they attempted to separate from the Lutheran Church, the state church of Baden-Wurttemberg.
The fortress museum has a display of Huber.
Unfortunately, Deal was outside the fortress being interviewed while the group's guides explained the Huber exhibit, which is in German.
She said Huber was No. 1 on the list of Separatists to be arrested by the authorities. Books have even been written about him. "He was apparently very much involved in the movement. I wasn't aware of that."
Page 2 of 2 - To be freed from prison, the Separatists had to agree to change their attitude, not tell other people how they were treated in prison and leave the area, Gordon said. About 60 Separatists were imprisoned. At least a dozen of them went to Zoar.
After Huber was released from prison, he came to Zoar in 1817 with the original group of settlers. He died in 1838.
Both Gordon and Deal were grateful that they were accompanied on the tour by Dr. Eberhard Fritz, archivist for the duke of Wurttemberg and an authority on the Separatists. He explained the history of the movement to them.
Deal said she is ready to go back to Germany.
"It was really fascinating," she said, noting that she had heard about her German heritage, but she didn't appreciate it until she visited the places where her ancestors lived and suffered for their faith.
"It makes it real," Deal said.
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Lysaght is a rollforming specialist manufacturing the LYSAGHT® range of quality building products like steel roofing and wall cladding, guttering and fascia, steel fencing, purlins and structural formwork from Australian made materials such as COLORBOND® steel, ZINCALUME® steel, TRUECORE® steel and GALVASPAN® steel.
With a history spanning over 150 years and this year celebrating 90 years of manufacturing in Australia, Lysaght has helped shape Australia's landscape for over one and half centuries with a reputation for quality, innovation and expertise to be proud of.
Lysaght is pleased to announce that following the launch of the new COLORBOND® steel colour range, Lysaght will have the full 22 standard colours ready to supply nationally from Monday 2nd December 2013. The colours may be available even earlier than this in some products and in some regions.
A LYSAGHT® Carport Kit is the perfect solution for your car protection needs. Designed with the home handyman in mind, the quality Australian made components of a LYSAGHT® Carport Kit are designed to go together easily and safely with no special tools required.
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Strategic Planning
Administration Bldg
Xavier University Of Louisiana
1 Drexel Drive
New Orleans , LA 70125
The planning website is intended to serve as a locus where you can access documents and information that have supported the strategic planning process or that reflect the planning effort at key moments. We are attempting to engage and inform the Xavier community by making these documents and this information available in a single location with ease of access.
Your comments and reactions to the planning information or to the website layout and design itself are welcome. We have included on the site an easy link for you to easily communicate your comments and reactions.
Ronald Dumford, Ph. D.
Vice President
Planning and Institutional Research


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Stephen R. Gracey will appear in court Tuesday on charges of fleeing and eluding, resisting arrest, prohibited offensive weapons, three counts of aggravated assault and other lesser charges from a Jan. 12 incident near Scotland.
According to an affidavit filed with Magisterial District Judge T.R. Williams by Pennsylvania State Police, Chambersburg Borough police had been looking for a white van with Stephen Gracey driving around 11 p.m.
Police said they wanted him for terroristic threats charges and a Protection from Abuse violation. As a Pennsylvania state trooper was talking with borough police about this matter, the van drove past them, according to police.
Police pursued Gracey, who allegedly failed to stop and continued on Woodstock Road at high speed. State police took over the chase at that time, according to police.
Gracey allegedly drove around Scotland for a short time, including Main Street, Elevator Street, Garver Lane and Lincoln Street. The van then went onto Pa. 997 without stopping at a stop sign and went onto Pa. 696, reaching speeds of up to 70 mph in a 45 mph posted zone, according to police.
Five more troopers joined the pursuit, and the van traveled across Interstate 81.
At Mount Rock Road, Gracey slowed as if making a left turn. According to police, the lead trooper, Trooper Strayer, saw an opportunity to attempt a maneuver, and struck the rear driver corner of the van.
Gracey allegedly attempted to flee, spinning his tires and attempting to strike the two state police units at his front.
According to police, Gracey was "taken from the vehicle." He grabbed onto the seatbelt, resisting arrest, and at that time a switchblade fell from his clothing. He continued to refuse to follow verbal commands, police said, and was handcuffed.
Emergency Medical Services was contacted to provide medical treatment.
Charges include fleeing and eluding, resisting arrest, prohibited offensive weapons, three counts of aggravated assault, stop signs and yield signs, turning movements requiring signals, driving vehicle at safe speed, careless driving, recklessly endangering another person and criminal mischief.


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Update: according to the latest rumors the "Hogs" are on their way to Afghanistan, where they would replace the current mix of ANG A-10s of the 104th and 184th FS deployed there since March.
Originally posted by FlyingFox
reply to post by Wrabbit2000
It would be a good cover for both squadrons to MIA into the Near East.
Originally posted by Agit8dChop
I didnt think A10's would be the preferred choice for Iran. Iran have good anti-air, and the A10 is a slower craft.
Plus, why use jets when cruise missiles are sufficient?
reply to post by Bearack
However, the A-10 is one bad a$$ when it comes to slaughtering tanks, supply lines and enemy troops.
Originally posted by Bearack
They are rarely ..... well actually, never sent in when there are established anti air batteries. A-10's have minimal defensive measures and would air fodder until all anti air defenses are eliminated.


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Students look at a memorial marker and bench to the late coach Kyle Dawkins at the Wetumpka Middle School track Friday.
- Filed Under
Students and faculty at Wetumpka Middle School came together with smiles and tears Friday to dedicate the school's track to the late coach Kyle Dawkins.
Dawkins, a former physical education teacher at Wetumpka Middle School and defensive line coach at Stanhope Elmore High School, died in May. School officials said Dawkins died of a heart-related medical illness.
Those who knew Dawkins spoke at the dedication ceremony. The school has put up a sign dedicating the track to Dawkins and has placed a bench behind a marker celebrating his life. ...


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Thursday 24 November 2011
US comedian Jackie Mason is saying goodbye to the UK next year when he bows out with his show Fearless! at the Wyndhams Theatre from 13th February to 17th March.
Born in 1936, at the age of 25 he became a Rabbi before quitting 3 years later to become a comedian. He has consistently had commerical and critial success with a host of nominations and awards for his shows.
For his show The World According to Me that ran for two and a half years on Broadway he won a Tony Award, an Outer Critics Circle Award, an Ace Award, an Emmy Award, and a Grammy nomination, and it toured successfully in America and Europe for two years.
Known for his passion about politics and for commenting on any current issues complete outspokeness this will be the UK's last chance to see Jackie Mason in the UK. As Jackie says, "If it's in the news, it's in the show!"
[posted by Louise, 24/11/2011]
Monday 13 February 2012
London Theatre Direct Ltd is an official London Theatre ticket agency. We hold ticket allocations with or connect directly to all major venues. Book your London theatre tickets with confidence.
London Theatre Direct is a full member of STAR, (The Society of Ticket Agents and Retailers) recognised by The Society Of London Theatre, Westminster Council, Office of Fair Trading and Visit London.
One of the first websites to sell London theatre tickets online, LondonTheatreDirect.com offers the ability to book theatre tickets quickly, safely and securely. Join thousands of customers who have booked tickets with us!
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News roundup: Democrats gather in North Carolina for pro-Obama rally
Obama's political voyage. Romney and Obama assess Isaac aftermath. 64 days to the election.
Happy Monday and happy Labor Day. While many are taking time off, President Barack Obama spends the day evaluating post-Hurricane Isaac recovery efforts. Mitt Romney visited the water-besieged locale on Friday, flying there less than 12 hours after accepting the Republican nomination. [Globe] [CNN] [WaPost] [Yahoo]
-> Your holiday Cornflakes special edition comes to you as Democrats are gathering in Charlotte, N.C., for their national convention. The Trib's Matt Canham (@MattCanham) is on scene and will be bringing us all the details. But let's start with his fascinating look at how Obama finds himself in new territory: on the offense. The White House incumbent's new challenge is to defend his time as president while also trying to revive some of that magic he rocked in 2008. [Trib]
Topping the news: During a church service yesterday, hotel chain owner J.W. Marriott thanks Romney for bringing positive attention to the Mormon church. [Yahoo] [Reuters]
-> The Washington Post's Dan Balz offers up eight questions - and answers - potential voters might have about Obama and the upcoming convention. [WaPost]
-> Former Utah Transit Authority chief executive officer John Inglish spent more than $600,000 on work-related travel in under two years. [Trib]
Tweet of the day: From @InvisibleObama: "The one where I totally photobombed Mitt and Ann at the #RNC2012. pic.twitter.com/hurZo9wi"
Happy Birthday: to Sandy Tenney, chief clerk of the Utah House.
Opinion section: The Tribune endorses Rob Bishop, saying that with his re-election comes continued clout in the Capitol. [Trib]
-> Paul Rolly says that despite Jon Hunstman's Romney endorsement, the rivalry continues. [Trib]
-> Utah congressional candidate Mia Love argues that likability is not what will win this presidential election. [USAToday]
-> James M. Oliver insists that Utah's water future depends on whether or not the Supreme Court will her a case about the Colorado River's water allocation. [Trib]
-> Rodney K. Smith argues that an adherence to partisanship prevents voters from seeking the truth. [DNews]
-> Frank Pignanelli and LaVarr Webb suggest that understanding politicians may require reading between the lines. [DNews]
2012 watch: When pressed, Maryland's Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley said that the country is no better off now than it was in 2008. [NatJournal] [BuzzFeed] Some Obama aides are bouncing around the answer entirely. [APviaNPR]
-> Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney may find himself in trouble. [NYTimes]
-> Democrats paint Obama as the candidate with the ability to handle foreign affairs. [APviaYahoo]
-> The Obama campaign hopes to replicate the victorious 2010 campaign path of Democratic Colorado Senator Michael Bennet. [NYTimes]
-> Obama's White House releases its secret beer recipe after an out-pouring of requests. [ChiTribune]
-> Ron Paul says Romney's convention speech leaves him skeptical. [LVSun]
-> The U.'s Tim Chambless offers his take on Romney's convention moment. [ABC4]]
-> Ann Romney shares baking tips and her own treats aboard the Romney plane. [ABCNews]
-> Voters age 18 to 24 preferred Obama at the 2008 go-around, but polls show the margin has since decreased. [APviaDNews]
-> Despite the fact that the majority of ethnic-minority U.S. governors leaders are Republican, the GOP struggles to attract the minority vote. [DNews]
-> With 95% percent of the black vote going to Obama in 2008, the Republicans have a lot of work left to do. [NPR]
-> Selling Mormon Romney to evangelicals falls to a trusted adviser: Mark DeMoss. [CNN]
Weekend in review: Gov. Gary Herbert's campaign cash flow is more than five times that of his opponent Peter Cooke's but one of many examples of large financial discrepancies between Utah office hopefuls. [Trib]
-> The Trib's Robert Gehrke explains how he invented the new social media meme "Eastwooding" and the aftermath. [Trib]
-> Though Jim Matheson and Mia Love aren't immediately responsible, advertising surrounding the high-profile race has turned negative. [DNews]
-> Pat Bagley offers his take on the greatest moments in Latter-day Saint history. [Trib]
-> Even after Clint Eastwood's invisible Obama antics, the president says he is still a fan. [WaPost] [WSJournal]
-> LDS Democrats are excited for their national convention and their big splash there. [KSL]
Got a tip? A birthday, wedding or anniversary to announce? Email us at email@example.com. If you haven't already, sign up for our weekday email and get this sent directly to you inbox. [Trib]
Thomas Burr and Betsy BlanchardTwitter.com/thomaswburr and Twitter.com/betsyblanchard


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SOG Slim Jim Assisted Opening Folding Knife 3.18" Tanto Point AUS-8 Stainless Steel Blade Stainless Steel Handle Gray
Product #: 741463 SOG #: SJ33-CP UPC #: 729857998390
- Information
- Videos
The SOG SlimJim Folding Knife is a radically slim assisted opening pocket knife, with simplistic and minimalistic design. The SlimJim is unobtrusive, but always there when you need it most. Constructed from a single piece of steel, the SlimJim is the slimmest assisted knife in the world. A gentle push on the thumb stud, and let SOG Assisted Technology finish the action with a bang, using one of the surest assisted technologies out there. Tactile jimping and cutouts on the blade aid in control, while all features are purposeful and functional. The patent-pending safety is used to insure the retention of the blade in the handle as well as acts as a double lock in the open position. SlimJim, don't let its size fool you!
Technical Information
Technical Information
- Folding or Fixed Blade: Folding
- Blade Steel: AUS8
- Handle Material: Stainless Steel
- Serrated: No
- Pocket Clip: Yes
- Carry Options: Reversible Tip-up
- Locking Mechanism: Lock back
- Blade Finish: Satin or Black Hardcase
- Rockwell Hardness: 56-58
- Opening Method: Thumb Stud
- Blade length: 3.18"
- Blade Width: .078"
- Closed Length: N/A
- Overall Length: 7.4"
- Weight: 2.4 oz.
Additional Information
Delivery Information
The total weight of the product, including the product's packaging as it sits on our shelf. Since some products ship directly from the Manufacturer, their weight may be unavailable. Because of variations in the manufacturing process, similar products may have differing weights. Unless the product is designated as "Ships Alone", Shipping Weight does not include the shipping box or packing materials associated with your order.
Product ships from MidwayUSA, separate from any other products on your order due to its size. Products that are Shipped Alone incur separate "Per Order" and "Per Pound" shipping charges.
Product is regulated by the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and cannot be shipped via USPS or air shipping methods. DOT-Regulated products must ship UPS Ground.
Product is restricted by shipping carriers and cannot be shipped to certain locations or via certain shipping methods.
Additional shipping charge for HazMat products. Carriers charge extra to ship packages with products they consider hazardous, such as reloading powder and primers.
Product Videos
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- WND - http://www.wnd.com -
Cannibal eats heart, brain of roommate
Posted By -NO AUTHOR- On 06/01/2012 @ 9:02 am In Front Page,U.S. | No Comments
JOPPATOWNE, Md. (WJZ)— A chilling story unfolds in Harford County where family members find the chopped up body parts of a missing man. And now, the suspect admits to committing acts of cannibalism on that body.
Meghan McCorkell has the stunning twist to this murder investigation.
Both the suspect and the victim were students at Morgan State University. But it was inside a Joppatowne home they shared where police say an unimaginable crime occurred.
Article printed from WND: http://www.wnd.com
URL to article: http://www.wnd.com/2012/06/cannibal-eats-heart-brain-of-roommate/
Click here to print.
© Copyright 1997-2013. All Rights Reserved. WND.com.


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Haters, it's time to root for A-Rod
Updated: October 28, 2009, 9:22 PM ETBy David Schoenfield | Page 2
Quick quiz: Which group of fans is most bummed about the results of baseball's postseason so far?
(A) Mets fans (B) Indians fans (C) Those who extol the virtues of the Angels playing the game "the right way" (D) Umpire fetishists (E) A-Rod haters
Correct answer: (E) -- although I suspect many Indians fans will be smashing their Fausto Carmona bobbleheads to pieces after watching CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee start Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday night.
Alex ...
Read full story
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- Flashback: Pedro vs. Yankees in postseason


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New Models for Addressing Supply Chain and Transport Risk
Trends such as globalization, lean processes, mass travel and the geographical concentration of production have made supply chain and transport networks more efficient, but have also changed their risk profile. This report, produced in collaboration with Accenture, calls for new models to address supply chain and transport risks. It highlights the urgent need to review risk management practices to keep pace with rapidly changing contingencies facing the supply chain, transport, aviation and travel sectors.