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Election Polls
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"The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" -
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2012 Projections
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2012 Elections
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Results from yesterday's primaries in AK, AZ, VT, runoff in OK
Primary contests were held yesterday in Alaska, Arizona and Vermont, and Oklahoma held primary runoff elections. I have updated the following pages to reflect the outcomes.
Alaska State Page
Arizona State Page
Arizona Senate Race Page
Arizona House District 1 Race Page
Arizona House District 2 Race Page
Arizona House District 9 Race Page
Oklahoma State Page
Oklahoma House District 2 Race Page
Vermont State Page
Vermont Senate Race Page
Be sure to check back often to see who is projected to win these races and over 170 others tracked here at Election Projection. With frequent polling updates and accurate projection formulas, EP is a website you'll want to make a daily part of your Election 2012 routine.
Filed under:
Arizona Senate Race
Arizona House District 1 Race
Arizona House District 2 Race
Arizona House District 9 Race
Oklahoma House District 2 Race
Vermont Senate Race
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:35pm 08/29/12::
Monday, April 30, 2012
Weekend updates to the state pages
I worked this weekend to update the state pages for the 2012 elections. Lots of changes to candidate lists, javascripts, projection information, etc. to incorporate. I was able to get done a lot of what I had planned to do, but I'll continue the updates over the next several days.
In the meantime, I do plan on posting a fresh projection update tonight, so be sure to check back to see if there has been any movement in the numbers.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Website administration
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:24am 04/30/12::
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Latest projection update posted
The numbers continue to favor President Obama here at Election Projection. The latest
2012 presidential election projections
give Obama a commanding 126-vote lead in the all-important electoral vote tally. The effects of Rick Santorum's recent decision to suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination will not be felt for several days, but, while we could see some tightening in the race for the White House, I don't expect Romney to benefit very much yet.
On the Senate front, Election Projection now projects an effective 50-50 tie with the two projected Independents caucusing with the Democrats. The shift in the numbers comes courtesy of the Massachusetts race. A poll from Rasmussen this week gives Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren a one-point lead over incumbent Republican Scott Brown in the Bay State senate race. That's not much of a lead, but it is enough to tip the projection to the blue team for now.
I know the House and Governor's summaries have seen little in the way of updates up until now. That is about to change - especially for the House races - as I'm working behind the scenes to bring current as many races as feasible at this point in the cycle. Stay tuned...
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Presidential Election
Senate '12
2012 House
2012 Governors
Massachusetts 2012
MA Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:22pm 04/11/12::
Thursday, April 5, 2012
It's past time for Santorum and Gingrich to get out of the way
I'll just come right out and say it. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are hurting their party's chances of making Barack Obama a one-term president. The last thing the GOP needs is 4 more months of fighting each other. President Obama should be clearly headed for defeat in November. Instead, because certain Republicans can't see past their own ambition, he is on a path to easy re-election. In just about every battleground state from Florida to Ohio, from North Carolina to Virginia, from Nevada to Colorado, the President is leading in just about every poll - many by a sizeable margin. (In case you missed it, every one of those states was won by George W. Bush in his narrow re-election in 2004.)
And still, Republicans fight each other, wasting precious time with every passing day and squandering precious resources doing Obama's campaign task for him. The time has come - no, it has long past - for Santorum and Gingrich to begin helping Mitt Romney defeat Obama. That, or get out of the way.
Filed under:
2012 Presidential Election
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:04pm 04/05/12::
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Presidential election projection update
The latest projections have been posted. President Obama's approval ratings have held up well over the last few weeks despite his recent on mic
gaffe with Dmitry Medvedev
a couple days ago. We'll have to see over the next week or so if that forces his numbers down a bit.
For now, however, the president is polling strong in several battleground states, maintaining surprisingly comfortable margins in such Republican must-win states like Virginia and Florida. On the strength of that polling Obama enjoys a blue Florida with
this latest update
, and its 29 electoral votes put him even farther ahead of Mitt Romney, 332-206.
Correction: I originally said Obama was talking to Vladimir Putin when the gaffe was aired. He was in fact speaking to Dmitry Medvedev. My apologies for the error.
Filed under:
2012 Presidential Election
2012 Elections
Florida 2012
FL President 2012
Virginia 2012
VA President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:52pm 03/28/12::
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Welcome to Election Projection
A lot of folks are coming to Election Projection today by way of search engines. If that is you, then this is probably your first time to visit. Let me offer you a hearty welcome! While you're here, I thought I'd give an overview of all the features and fun that can be found here.
Of course, with a name like "Election Projection," you might expect extensive resources by which you can track the upcoming elections in November. Indeed, that is a large part of EP's content. Below you'll find links to handy summary pages which include frequently updated at-a-glance projections of different state-by-state races.
2012 Presidential Elections
: The current numbers give President Obama a comfortable 303-235 lead in the all important race for the White House.
2012 Senate Elections
: For the moment, we have a projected tie in the Senate, with VP Biden casting the deciding vote.
2012 Congressional Elections
: Redistricting has shuffled around the make up of our 435 congressional districts, but the current projected tally looks almost unchanged.
2012 Governor Elections
: Just eleven gubernatorial races are on tap this year, but the GOP looks well-positioned to expand their statehouse majority.
On any of these pages, just click on a map to view one of 50 statepages with tons of information on the races and political landscape of each state.
In addition to the projections, EP also provides easy-to-use pages that cover other aspects of the election season.
2012 Republican Presidential Nomination
: Track the GOP primaries with a handy table listing dates, delegates, winners and more.
2012 Redistricting
: The census of 2010 changed the congressional landscape across the nation. This page tracks how those changes are playing out.
Election Projection's
previous results
have been very accurate since it began back in 2003. I hope you'll stick around for a while and find out what all EP has to offer - and I'd be delighted if you'd make Election Projection a daily stop on the way toward Election Day, November 6.
Filed under:
2012 Presidential Election
Senate '12
2012 House
2012 Governors
Website administration
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:17pm 02/28/12::
Monday, March 5, 2012
Election Projection update published
There were a couple of big changes in today's Election Projection update. On the Electoral College front, President Obama is now projected to win Ohio. The change extends his projected margin of victory in the 2012 presidential elections to 68 electoral votes. He now leads the projection 303-235 over Mitt Romney. The Senate tally also moves in the Democrats' favor today as Virginia sports a newly-painted blue hue.
Coincidentally - or maybe not - both races flipped on the weight of a series of polls from NBC News/Marist. I'm not sure what to make them, but they conducted several polls around the country whose results look very much like outliers. I'm still using them in the calculations, but it'll be something we'll want to keep an eye on going forward.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Presidential Election
Senate '12
Ohio 2012
OH President 2012
Virginia 2012
VA Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:03am 03/05/12::
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Gallup presidential poll: Romney moves ahead of Obama, Santorum 1 point behind
The latest Gallup poll testing potential GOP nominees against President Barack Obama shows
improving fortunes for the Republicans
. Mitt Romney leads Obama 50% to 46%, and Rick Santorum is just one point behind, 49-48. Santorum's numbers have improved considerably since Gallup's last poll in late January. That survey showed him down eight to the President.
Filed under:
2012 Presidential Election
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:22pm 02/23/12::
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Election Projection's 2012 electoral college projections are underway
The abrupt re-resurgence of Newt Gingrich last weekend, fueled by his resounding victory in South Carolina, has experienced an equally abrupt downturn in recent days. Mitt Romney has moved comfortably ahead in several polls coming out of Florida. With a victory in Tuesday's primary in the Sunshine State appearing all but certain, Romney's path to the GOP nomination should become much less fraught with obstacles.
As I promised a week ago
, I've launched Election Projection's official tracking of the presidential contest between Romney and President Obama, and the first official projections are posted. Previously, the President enjoyed a substantial lead after the "Tour of the 50 states" yielded my state-by-state preliminary projections. But the first look at the race using calculations with actual polling numbers reveals a much closer fight. Obama retains the lead in my initial projections, but by just 6 electoral votes.
Mitt Romney is projected to carry all the states won by John McCain in 2008 - plus Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia - for a total of 266 electoral votes. That's not quite enough to best President Obama, who is projected to win a total of 272 EVs, but it does set up a race that should be very competitive. As we watch this competitive race unfold over the next nine months, I hope you'll visit Election Projection often to get an up-to-date outlook from The Blogging Caesar.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Presidential Election
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:36pm 01/29/12::
Sunday, January 15, 2012
It's Romney against Obama
I know we're still six days away from just the third GOP nomination contest, but, as to the eventual nominee, signs are all pointing in one particular direction. Toward Mitt Romney. If you've followed Election Projection long, you have probably gathered that Mitt Romney is not my favorite prospective GOP nominee. In fact, I've tried my objective best to imagine someone else overtaking him and his longtime frontrunner status.
When Rick Perry joined the fray, I boldly declared him
the next nominee
- and the next president. (Ok, how was I to know he'd forget his own policies?). When Rick Santorum utilized Mike Huckabee's GOP base in Iowa to gain a virtual tie with Romney in the Hawkeye Caucuses, I pegged the nomination contest as a
two-man race
. In between, I rode the short-lived waves of Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. And most recently, I even floated the possibility of a
Perry comeback
in the days before New Hampshire.
Now, with South Carolina's primary less than a week away, I've become convinced of a less-than-optimal inevitability. It is with some regret that I hereby relinquish hope of an "anti-Romney" candidate prevailing to face President Obama in November. Mitt Romney is dominating the
fundraising battle
and the
endorsement tally
. Beyond that, he also continues to lead the polls both in South Carolina and nationally.
Trying to draw up a scenario that doesn't end with a Romney nomination has become unreasonably improbable. So sure am I that he will emerge the nominee that I will soon be dispensing with my preliminary presidential projections and initiating actual, formula-driven projections using Obama vs. Romney poll numbers. Let the games begin - and may Romney win.
Filed under:
2012 GOP Primaries
2012 Elections
2012 Presidential Election
Mitt Romney
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:53pm 01/15/12::
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
The differences between Huckabee '08 and Santorum '12
When evaluating Santorum's surprise strength in Iowa yesterday, many people draw parallels between his success and Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa 4 years ago. Both capitalized on their appeal to Iowa's large evangelical base and neither looked to be a strong contender in New Hampshire. For sure there are similarities, but there are significant differences as well. And those differences will write a completely different kind of Republican nomination story in 2012.
It's the economy
- Last cycle, evangelicals were solidly behind Huckabee, and values issues were foremost on their minds. Last night, entrance polling showed the economy and jobs far outweighed social issues, even in the minds of religious conservatives. The fact that Santorum still pulled out a tie against Romney - even while staunch conservatives were splitting their vote substantially with Ron Paul - reveals his ability to draw Republicans on economic issues, not just social ones. That will lend strength to his legitimacy as the anti-Romney candidate as we move into other areas where evangelicals don't play such a major role.
There is no John McCain
- As odd as this may sound, Santorum will benefit from the fact that there is no John McCain waiting in the wings. Four years ago, McCain was polling well in New Hampshire, and his victory there set the stage for his unlikely ride to the nomination. This year, all legitimate candidates have already had their moments in the spotlight as the anti-Romney candidate and have fallen away. Last night cleared the field for a Santorum vs. Romney two-man race. (Jon Huntsman has no chance of gaining momentum or contending for the nomination, even if he maxes out expectations in New Hampshire.)
Mike Huckabee's rise was short-lived as Republicans settled on John McCain as the anti-Romney alternative. I believe Rick Santorum's rise will persist for much longer, and his flame will not be extinguished by another alternative to Romney. Indeed, there just aren't any more arrows in that quiver. I'm not guaranteeing a Santorum nomination, but I am saying that the GOP nominee will inevitably be either him or Romney.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 GOP Primaries
IA Caucus 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:58pm 01/04/12::
Rick Santorum is Iowa's big winner
Regardless who ends up with more votes when all precincts have reported, the clear winner in Iowa is Rick Santorum. Facing single-digit polling numbers, almost no money and very little on-the-ground structure in place, he worked tirelessly with a heart filled with traditional American values and a head full of common-sense ideas. And he surpassed all expectations by earning 25% of the vote last night.
Going on to New Hampshire and South Carolina, we now have our anti-Romney candidate. This race has been reduced to just two real contenders. Ron Paul's performance illustrated my point that his ceiling is in the low 20s. The sooner he gets out of the race, the better, in my view. The Republican nomination will go to either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum.
And after Iowa's results, it's either man's race. Santorum's first two words in his speech early this morning were "game on!" Indeed.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
IA Caucus 2012
Iowa 2012
IA President 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:53am 01/04/12::
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Link to Iowa caucus results
The Iowa caucuses will begin at 7pm CT. Republicans will meet in all 1,774 precincts, listen to short speeches by the candidates or their representatives, and hold a secret ballot vote. For a more detailed account of how the proceedings tonight will be conducted, click
Some time later this evening,
the Iowa GOP website will be posting the results.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Iowa 2012
IA President 2012
IA Caucus 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:36pm 01/03/12::
Friday, November 4, 2011
2012 Elections kickoff update
Even though I haven't posted since announcing EP's 2012 Elections kickoff on Tuesday, I have been hard at work behind the scenes creating all the pages associated with prognosticating our national elections. The process is nearing its end, and I will be starting the "Tour of the 50 States" on Monday with Alabama's preview. As you can imagine for a one-man operation like this, setting everything up for a new election cycle is a very big job! Please be patient as I finish up preparations over the weekend.
Filed under:
Website administration
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:09pm 11/04/11::
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
2012 Elections kickoff
It is November. We are now one full year away from Election 2012. Last night, I officially began Election Projeciton's coverage of the 2012 elections by creating
Alabama's 2012 statepage
. This week, I will post summary pages for the presidential, senate, house, and governors' races as well as initiating my customary "tour of the 50 states" previews. I think we're in for a very exciting ride over the next 12 months, and I hope you'll be connecting with Election Projection often for projections and commentary along the way.
Filed under:
Website administration
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:23am 11/01/11::
Thursday, October 20, 2011
More thoughts on job approval and re-election chances
Last week, I took
a look
at President Obama's quest for a second term with an eye on the Electoral College. A large portion of the analysis dealt with the affect that job approval for a sitting president has on his re-election chances. Using history as a guide, Obama's job approval will be perhaps the most predictive indicator of his re-electability.
Coincidentally, this week, I had a conversation with a very intelligent, liberal friend of mine about this very fact. In our discussion, he asserted that job approval will only be an overriding factor if the GOP can nominate an electable candidate to challenge the President. He believes even a dismal economy can be overcome if Obama faces a weak enough opponent. I countered - and rightly so, I believe - that if Obama's job approval is in the low 40's come the weekend before Election Day, it won't matter who is listed below him on the ballot.
I firmly believe this - and the track record backs me up. Every president with an approval rating of 49% or above since 1940 has won, while the three with approval less than that have lost. Moreover, if a president's approval dipped into the 30's, his defeat was sizeable.
I am very willing to stand on this prediction: If Obama's approval is under 45% this time next year, he will lose - and lose big - no matter whom he faces. But here's the caviat (and I didn't mention this in my discussion with my friend). Obama's job approval will be somewhat tied to the GOP nominee. If Republicans nominate someone who connects with voters, Obama's shortcomings will be accentuated, and his approval will sustain downward pressure. On the other hand, a weak candidate will have the opposite effect. If voters are presented with an unacceptable GOP challenger, they will begin to see such things as a bad economy as more palatable, and Obama's approval will rise as a result.
In the end, the corellation between job approval and re-election will be unbroken after Election 2012. But where that job approval ends up will be a combination of many factors, not the least of which will be who gets to be the last speaker at the Republican National Convention in Tampa next August.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Presidential Election
President Obama
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:51pm 10/20/11::
Monday, October 10, 2011
2012 Elections - First look at the Electoral College
Three years ago, Barak Obama breezed into the White House winning 28 states, the District of Columbia and one electoral vote in Nebraska. That's 365 electoral votes total. In the process, he amassed 69.46 million votes, over 7 million more votes than any presidential candidate in United States history. His margin of victory over GOP nominee John McCain surpassed 9 million votes. Simple math would predict a large erosion of support would have to befall President Obama for him to fail to attain a second term. However, looking at the Electoral College map, it isn't all that hard to see a Republican challenger getting the needed 270 EVs to unseat the incumbent.
Let's start with the closest of state races from 2008. President Obama won North Carolina (0.32%), Indiana (1.04%), Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (1.19%) and Florida (2.82%) by less than 3%. Assuming equal distribution across the nation, a GOP-ward swing of a mere 1.5% in the popular vote would flip these states to red and narrow Obama's EV margin to 305-235. And if his portion of the popular vote were to decline just 3% more, Ohio (4.59%), Virginia (6.29%) and Colorado (8.95%) would give their 40 electoral votes and an electoral victory to the Republican nominee. So, in light of the numbers, it is clear that the 2012 election will be won or lost in these three states.
Conspicuously absent from this winning GOP scenario are any of the traditional battleground states of Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. In 2000, George W. Bush needed all the states mentioned previously as well as Nevada and New Hampshire to get to a scant 271-267 electoral vote majority. Next year, the GOP candidate can lose both Nevada and New Hampshire (10 EVs total) and still reach a more comfortable majority with 275 electoral votes. Redistricting over the last two censuses has shifted at least 14 electoral votes to redder states and made electing a Republican president structurally easier.
Compounding Obama's re-election difficulties are his dismal
approval numbers
. Realistically, a sitting president with a job approval rating under 45% has very little chance of winning 4 more years in office. These numbers could improve, but with 13 months until Election Day, the odds are long that they would improve enough to for him to win. Nate Silver actually posted the following graphic in
an article he wrote
back in January concerning this very phenomenon.
From Silver's analysis, Obama's current approval of 40% maps to about a 40% chance of re-election. Considering the structural changes due to redistricting, I'd peg his chances at 35% or so right now.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Redistricting
President Obama
2012 Presidential Election
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:25pm 10/10/11::
Friday, September 30, 2011
Catching up and looking ahead
It has been a long time since I've posted anything here. I've been, well, let's say, resting up for the long race to November 6, 2012. A lot has transpired in my hiatus from blogging. Since my last post, the GOP has won a district in New York that had been in Democratic hands for generations. We've seen the rise and, dare I say, fall of Rick Perry's presidential fortunes. A surprising result in the Florida straw poll put Herman Cain on top in the GOP nomination race there. And, with half the states finished drawing new congressional lines after the 2010 census, redistricting so far has been pretty much a wash.
I think this is a good time to get back into the swing of things - that is, after my family and I get back from a long-awaited week at the beach. Look for the parade of state-by-state evaluations to begin here at Election Projection after we return. Until then, let me highly recommend a movie we just watched this evening. "Courageous" is a gripping and poignant picture of what happens when fathers don't own up to their God-given responsibilities to guide our children and lead our families - and what can happen when fathers do. I was both convicted of ways I need to be a better father and convinced all fathers need to see this movie.
See you in a week.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
The Blogging Caesar
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 09/30/11::
Monday, August 15, 2011
Rick Perry will win the GOP nomination
Let me come right out and predict it. Governor Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee for president in 2012. The only two legitimate contenders other than Perry are Mitt Romney and Michele Bachman. But Perry combines the best of each into one presidential package. He has Romney's executive experience and Bachman's conservative credentials. That's what conservatives like me have been yearning for.
One more thing: If Obama's job approval stays
where it is now
for the next 15 months, Rick Perry is your next POTUS. Mark my words.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:23pm 08/15/11::
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Job approval portends bad news for
Obama's re-election chances
Gallup just released their latest
presidential job approval poll
, and the news continues to be bleak for President Obama. More than just a pulse of the electorate, this metric carries significant re-election ramifications. Over the last several presidential re-election bids, job approval, as measured by Gallup, has been a very close predictor of an incumbent's popular vote count.
(A presentation illustrating just how close this correlation has been used to be posted
. It served as a cornerstone of my first
Election Projection formula
back in 2004. Unfortunately, it has since been removed, so I don't have the specifics readily available.)
At 42% approval, Gallup's survey indicates Obama would almost certainly be defeated if the election were held today - regardless of who his GOP opponent might be. That's the bad news for Democrats. The good news, of course, is that the election is not being held today. In fact, the president still has 456 days to get that approval rating up above 50% and into winning territory. For us political fans - liberals and conservatives alike - it'll be fun to watch how that quest progresses over the next 15 months.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
President Obama
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:07pm 08/07/11::
Monday, July 25, 2011
Obama's plays his teleprompter trump card
President Obama delivered
a 14-minute speech
on the debt ceiling debate this evening from the White House. It was Obama at his teleprompter best, and it highlighted the challenges Republicans are facing in waging the all-important debt ceiling spin war. Using everything from cutesy lines ready-made for sound-bites - "The American people may have voted for divided government, but they didn't vote for a dysfunctional government" - to a quote from Ronald Reagan himself and assuming an elevated posture above the partisan divide, the President put Republicans on the defense tonight.
While many conservatives will claim Obama's speech was clearly short on substance and long on propaganda, I don't think that will be clear to the 25-30% of America's voters whose choice for president next November has not yet been made. The "balanced" approach Obama laid out was decried by Speaker Boehner in his 5-minute rebuttal. But, as I tried to listen with the ears of America's undecideds, Boehner didn't tell me why asking the wealthiest Americans to give up a tax break or two is a bad idea when he is asking Aunt Sandy to pay a higher price for her medicine.
Don't get me wrong; I was impressed with Boehner's delivery. And I thought what he said was exactly right. Unfortunately, I don't think he had the same sound-bite-worthy material that would resonate with folks who have voted both ways for president over the last several elections. Those are the ones whom Republicans desperately need to peel away from Obama's 2008 vote count if he is to be a one-term wonder. I don't want Republicans to budge from the promises they made on the election campaign - we
elect to rein in spending, not to raise taxes, after all - but if we don't figure out a way to present more compelling arguments that aren't just recycled talking points, Republicans may end up having to battle Obama's teleprompter prowess for another term.
Filed under:
The Republican Party
President Obama
2012 Elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:58pm 07/25/11::
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Reactions to last night's GOP debate
I am not one who enjoys listening to people in heated arguments and confrontations. So, it was nice to watch last night's debate between seven Republican presidential hopefuls. There was no rancor, no insults, no talking over someone else. And, to boot, I agreed with 95% of what was said! Beyond that, though, I do have some reactions to the discussions and the personalities on the stage last night in New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney was clearly campaigning more against President Obama than for the Republican nomination. He was by far the most vocal and critical of the President, and seemed to take every opportunity to point out Obama's shortcomings. He also seemed the most presidential of the lot.
From everyone else's reactions, Michele Bachmann's performance was stellar. I didn't find her all that impressive. However, if she gets enough momentum to keep Sarah Palin out of the running, then I'll be happy.
Newt Gingrich remains the most thoughtful, intelligent and articulate Republican I've seen since Ronald Reagan. I appreciate his logical, no-nonsense positions on just about every issue. And his understanding and forthrightness concerning the threat of militant Islam would serve this country well in the White House. If I had the job of appointing a president, Gingrich might be my pick. On the other hand, he's unelectable in my view so his role should be to define the issues and direct the debate.
Since I missed the first 20 minutes or so, I didn't get to see Tim Pawlenty's ObamneyCare moment. Without that to cloud his performance in my mind, I thought he did a very good job. He impressed me, though that may be a result of my poor impression of him going in.
Ron Paul always tickles my imagination with his constitutionalist answers and lean, efficient, well-defined role of government. Fairly or not, however, I just don't believe he can ever get voters en masse to move past his reputation as a radical wacko - and he completely loses me with his foreign policy positions.
Herman Cain has proven he has a head for business - something we need badly in these trying economic times. His responses were on target on the issues, and he has an engaging delivery. For the most part, however, he seems to be more of a peripheral candidate. Though he would make a great conservative president, I'm pretty sure he won't get that chance.
Finally, Rick Santorum is probably the candidate with the most to offer character-wise. I admire and like him, and would love him to win the presidency - though that's a long shot a best, I'm afraid. His answers were solid and articulate, if not spectacular, and he lived up to his conservative reputation - as did all the candidates on the stage.
That brings me to a main conclusion I reached from the debate. It is actually a conclusion voiced at the end by Herman Cain. While the field of GOP candidates has been maligned as weak and unoriginal - even by me - last night showed those watching that several solid presidential candidates are vying for the opportunity to face Obama next year. If this country is at all disillusioned with his administration and its policies come next November, the GOP will have a legitimate and very acceptable alternative to steer us in a conservative direction.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
The Republican Party
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:18am 06/14/11::
Monday, February 28, 2011
2012 Redistricting updates coming soon
Program update here at Election Projection. Starting soon, I will be publishing a section on the redistricting process after the census of 2010. Reapportionment has been finalized, but the real fun of redistricting is just getting underway. Check back here often for state-by-state updates as they come in.
Filed under:
2012 Elections
2012 Redistricting
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:13pm 02/28/11::
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Tea Party making waves for 2012
Last year's elections saw mostly positive results from the growth of the Tea Party movement. Next year, it looks like they'll be aiming for an encore. Three Republican senators
are early targets
. After the demise of Lisa Murkowski in Alaska and Bob Bennett in Utah at the hands of Tea Party-backed candidates, GOP incumbents who find themselves on the target list have reason to sweat. Senators Richard Lugar (R-IN), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT) must face the groundswell of conservative opposition to their centrist governance.
I applaud the resurgence of conservative ideals making its way once again across the country. I'm especially happy to see it rising against Hatch and Lugar since keeping those seats in GOP hands should be only mildly challenging without the incumbent on the ballot. The prospects of winning in Maine without Snowe on the ballot seem much less likely. The question raised by these challenges to more moderate Republicans is whether it is better in the long run to have Republicans in blue-tinted states while sacrificing the purity of the ideology or liberal Democrats with our ideology in tact. I'm still trying to figure out the right answer to that question. In the meantime, the Tea Party marches on, showing full well that it will be a force to be reckoned with once again in 2012.
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Senate '12
UT Senate 2012
ME Senate 2012
IN Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:12pm 02/17/11::
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Incumbent Jon Kyl out of the 2012 mix for Arizona Senate seat
On the heels of yesterday's announcement in Virginia that Democrat Jim Webb has decided to retire at the end of this term, another senator - this time a Republican - makes public his decision to forego a run at re-election to the Senate. Jon Kyl, a solid bet to keep his Arizona Senate seat, will also retire. His seat doesn't immediately become competitive, but Democrats will be happy to challenge a non-incumbent instead of the popular three-term senator.
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Arizona 2012
AZ Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 02/10/11::
Jim Webb will not seek re-election to Virginia Senate seat
First-term Senator Jim Webb announced yesterday that he would not seek re-election in 2012. This is a significant development on at least two fronts. First, Webb's exit means Democrats must defend an open seat here against former Senator George Allen. With a relatively short list of top-tier possibilities, keeping Allen from taking the seat becomes more difficult.
Second, Virginia's electoral votes, which President Obama captured in 2008, become a bit harder to hold without the incumbent senator on the ballot. Of course, Obama doesn't necessarily need Virginia to win another term, but I'm sure he'd rather avoid as many negatives as possible between now and November, 2012.
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2012 Elections
Virginia 2012
VA Senate 2012
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:25pm 02/10/11::
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Election 2012 - A first look at the Senate races
Trying to evaluate the outcome of an election nearly two years away is not dissimilar to predicting the winner of Super Bowl XLVII. Any prognostication should be taken for what it is. It will either come simply from a check of the current political pulse, or it will be a blind stab at pinning down the country's political climate 20 months from now, or it will be, as mine here is, a conglomeration of a variety of possibilities. In short, it is pretty much a waste of time. But since it is such an enjoyable waste of time, I feel it not a waste to go ahead and prognosticate a little.
Since there is very little we can do this far out to foresee the mood of the American electorate a year after this coming November, my first look at the Senate races of 2012 includes different ratings depending on what color wave, if any, is bearing down on us as we move toward Election Day. To provide good points of reference, I will use the red wave of 2010 as a highwater mark for the GOP, the blue wave of 2006 for the Democrats, and the status-quo election of 2000 as the calm political seas example.
Senate Races, 2012
If 2012 resembles...
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
If he runs, Jon Kyl should win against all but the largest of blue waves.
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Ditto in the opposite direction for Dianne Feinstein. She likely wins easy.
Lean D
Likely D
Lieberman's retirement bodes well for Democrats in this blue state.
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Tom Carper's next term is another solid bet if he wants it.
Lean D
Lean R
Bill Nelson's fortunes may rest on the whim of the political tide.
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
Amazingly, the ageless Daniel Akaka seeks, and will get, another term.
Likely R
Lean R
Safe R
Richard Lugar should prevail though he faces intra-party challenges.
Lean D
Lean R
Scott Brown will never rest easy in the deep blue Bay State.
Likely D
Safe D
Likely D
Ben Cardin hasn't confirmed a re-run, but Dems look good regardless.
Lean R
Likely R
A solid blue wave could topple Olympia Snowe.
Lean D
Lean R
After a great showing here in '10, the GOP will be after Debbie Stabenow.
Likely D
Safe D
Lean D
Amy Klobuchar is not invulnerable, but I think she must like her chances.
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
This is Republican country, so Roger Wicker's bid looks strong.
Lean D
Lean R
Claire McCaskill may need a wave to survive; Obama could help here.
Lean D
Lean R
Denny Rehberg's decision to run will give Jon Tester big headaches.
Lean D
Lean R
Conservative Democrat Ben Nelson's exit could make way for the GOP.
Lean D
Lean R
Embattled John Ensign faces a difficult campaign - if he runs.
New Jersey
Lean D
Likely D
Could Chris Christie's win in 2009 be a bad omen for Bob Menendez?
New Mexico
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
This one is just about in the bag for Jeff Bingaman.
New York
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
'10 proved Kristen Gillibrand is tough to beat; O for a legit challenger.
North Dakota
Lean R
Likely R
Kent Conrad leaves behind the best takeover opportunity of all.
Lean D
Lean R
The state GOP has recovered; Sherrod Brown is very vulnerable.
Lean D
Likely D
The red wave of '10 hit Penn hard; another could oust Bob Casey.
Rhode Island
Safe D
Safe D
Safe D
No worries in Little Rhodie for first-termer Sheldon Whitehouse.
Safe R
Likely R
Safe R
Tennessee's monstrous rightward lurch will propel Bob Corker.
Likely R
Lean R
Likely R
With Kay Bailey Hutchison out, this one could get interesting.
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
Whether it's Orrin Hatch or another Republican, Utah stays with the GOP.
Lean D
Lean R
See Missouri - Jim Webb's re-election chances look a lot like McCaskill's.
Safe I
Safe I
Safe I
Bernie Sanders won't break a sweat in route to another term.
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
If Patty Murray didn't lose in '10, Maria Cantwell won't in '12.
Safe D
Safe D
Likely D
Despite Ron Johnson's win here last year, take Herb Kohl if he runs.
West Virginia
Likely D
Safe D
Lean D
Joe Manchin will probably be popular enough for a full term.
Safe R
Safe R
Safe R
No matter how you slice it, John Barrasso's win is a done deal.
Judging from these ratings, Election 2012 could end up with widely varying results. If the blue wave of 2006 returns, Democrats could undo much of the gains Republicans enjoyed last November. On the other hand, if we are still awash in a red wave by then, Republicans stand to regain the majority that was wrested away from them in 2006. In fact, because so many more Democrats are up for re-election - 21 seats versus just 10 for the GOP - a persistent Republican tide could net even greater gains than we saw in 2010. Finally, if the election is more of a status-quo affair, the large number of Democratic seats up for grabs bodes well for a lesser number of Republican gains, perhaps just enough to get that Senate majority.
So I say we could see anywhere from a 4 or 5 seat gain for Democrats to an 8 or 9 seat gain for the Republicans - or anything in between. How's that for laying it on the line!
Filed under:
2012 Elections
Senate '12
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:27pm 02/09/11::
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text:
Riɛk Jinub Ɛl Thoda̱n. Ɛŋu bi lɛl mi̱ ci kundhur ji cɔl kɛ ŋar rɛy tua̱a̱k
November 9th, 2015
uer is the second largest Nilotic tribe inhabiting in Upper Nile of South Sudan, are divided into sub-three regional groups namely Western, Central and Eastern Upper Nile, which represent Lìc, Lol and Kumkan in Nuer.
Nuer (Nuääri) are one of the very few African groups that successfully tribe in east Africa
The Name of Nuer "Nuäär":
The Nuer meaning is a like curse or taboo because is a social or religious custom placing prohibition or restriction of a particular thing. When thing goes wrong inside clan, Nuer before they called themselves as a Naath. Therefore, Nuer sat downs for that purpose. The name came as Nuäär indicate that if they do again people will die. Things ban.
Nuäär "Nuer" Orientation:
The Nuer speak of themselves as "Næy tin Naath" or human being Nuerland is located in the Southern Sudan in east Africa between 7th and 10th North and 29th and 34th east the main channel of the Nile River divides their country into western and eastern regions. Most of Nuerland consists of open savanna and is subject to considerable flooding during the two rainy season "April to July through October".
At Nuer Calendar the year has twelve months, in the list of months given below.
Demographic and Geographic Distribution:
Nuer tribes are split into subdivision and clans. Are following
Nuäär (Nuer) Location:
The Nuer (Nuäär) lives mostly in Southern Sudan in Africa, in the Upper Nile State around the junction of the Nile River with the nearby Bahr el Ghazal and Sobat River, and extending up the Sobat across the Ethiopia border, the center of the Nuer (Nuäär) area is around Lake No.
Nuer (Nuääri) History and Cultural Relations:
Mythology and History:
Nuer (Nuääri) living to the east of the Nile speak of our western relatives as "Homeland Nuääri" and have a consistent oral tradition indicating that our expansion across the Nile, as far as the Ethiopia border, has a 200-300 years legacy, in process of this expansion, we forced the Anuak to migrate farther east into Ethiopia, and incorporated many Dinka (Möny Jäñ) into Nuäär communities. Nuer versed in such matters suggest that at one time three brothers Nuäär, Jäñ and Atuœt once lived in a neighboring territory, both Atuœt and Nuäär traditions indicate that this separations and initial migration originated in a cattle camp in what is now termed western "Nuäär Land" the Nuäär, Dinka and Atuœt have a common relationships. Naath rose as a separate from Dinka (Möny Jäñ) in Bul Nuäär area at the beginning of the 18th -19th century under circumstances are face both of them that continue, our mutual prejudices and relations with the Jäñ the myth, which has several variants runs that both Nuäär and Jäñ were sons of the same man and mother namely Kuœl Dæñ, who had promised that he would give the cow to elder son Jäñ and calf to Nuäär. Jäñ deceived our father and took the calf instead of the cow therefore provoking Nuäär's perpetual contempt and disregard for the Jäñ unto day. An especially active period of Nuäär eastward migration began in the middle of the 18th-19th century beginning at the turn of the 20th century. British policy in Nuäärland was aimed at fixing boundaries between the Nuäär and the Jäñ, thus effectively halting a dynamic process of cultural change that had been unfolding for centuries.
Nuäär (Nuer) Identity:
A Nuäär person like many of his pastoral, a Nuer man's working harder to keep the possession is his cattle. And then the life of Nuer people depends on cattle. Nuer is built around the herds and prestige is measured by the quantity and quality if the cattle a man owns.
Men and women take the names of their favorite oxen or cows and prefer to be greeted by their cattle names. A Nuer, a tall and very brown people and smart, and Nuer culture is very similar to Dinka and Atuœt. We call ourselves Naath, meaning "Human Being" the Nuer, Dinka and Atuœt are sometimes considered one ethnic group.
Nuäär (Nuer) Settlements:
Traditional Nuäär (Nuer) settlements take radically different form as a consequence of ecological changes throughout the year. In rainy season, flood force Nuer to seek narrow strips of land above the flood lines. During this period, Nuäär women are engaged in the cultivation of millet and maize, the staple horticultural resources, and men pasture their large herds nearby. We are successes people for growing maize and millet in Africa at large. With the coming of the dry season, Nuäär men move their herds away from the elevated ridges, following, with our herds, the course of lowering riverbeds channels. Hence, at the height of the dry season, the Nuäär population is most dispersed or goes in different directions, at this time, agnatic ally conscripted groups live in cattle camps. With the coming of the new season's rains, herders commence a gradual process of transhumance back toward the elevated ridges, away from the rising rivers. Here, wet season settlements form once again, and horticulture or cultivation follows the circular mud walls with thatched roofs. Temporary scaffoldings are made to dry the millet and maize as it is harvested. In the dry season cattle camp, shelters are made from local grasses as the need for protection from the elements is less pressing.
Nuäär (Nuer) Economy:
Nuäär (Nuer) technology is simple in manufacture in local and sophisticated in suitability to the local environment. Like the Dinka (Jäñ) and Atuœt. Nuer carries out our economic life in a good manner that highlights cultural conceptions of gender and the division of labor by sex. Wet season homesteads, horticultural produce, and huts themselves have strongly feminine associations, whereas masculine images are associated with tending cattle of millet, maize, and introduced vegetables and groundnuts where soil conditions allow, cattle are centrally important domesticates, and Nuer also pasture large flocks of sheep and goats. Nuer men enjoy occasional success in taking game animals such as antelopes, hippopotamuses, and elephants. No crops are produced for commercial or market purposes.
Environment, Economy and Natural Resources:
Most of Naath (Nuäär) homeland is located in the swamp areas of Upper Nile. The influences of the environment on the lifestyle of the Naath are sedentary during dry season mostly Naath Nuäär families domicile or dwelling in solitary or private settlement. Are agro-pastoralists balancing subsistence agriculture with cattle herding. Naath keep large herds, fishing and hunting.
The mains crops are sorghum, Nuäär, maize, Dura etc, many people are working in gardens at several time are waiting coming rainy season. Jikäny, Lœu, Gaawäär, and Ji-Kuec chieñ, however, is demonstrated or display yearly transhumance the arid or dry season was spins the rested going with cattle in summer camps. The other natural resources potential include wildlife, fisheries, acacia Senegalese, gum, etc. Nuäär had a four season are, September, October, November are Jiœm, December, January, February are Mäy, March, April, May are Ruel, June, July, and August are Tœt.
Nuäär (Nuer) language:
Is a Nilo-Saharan language of the western Nilotic group? It is spoken by the Nuer (Nuäär) people of Southern Sudan and western Ethiopia. Nuer is one of eastern and central Africa's most widely spoken languages. The Nuer tribes are one of second largest tribes in Southern Sudan, and are very successfully people in east Africa. Thok Naath, Nuer language is spoken all over the ræy rool Nath. They are originating from Upper Nile east and west Upper Nile and central, they have three state, Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei states in Southern Sudan. The first description of the Nuer (Thok Nath) language was published in 1912 at Doleib Hill by Diedrich Wastermann. Therefore, Ray Huffman arrived to start her work at Nasir station in about 1924-1925 and Vandevort a generation later. Although the Rejef language Conference in 1928 had established a baseline for missionary cooperation in linguistic description and literacy development, the first book written was Nuer English Dictionary and later Nuer customs and Folklore in 1931. However, the Thok Nath is very close to the Jäñ and Chollo languages. The Nuer (Nuäär) language has a Latin-based alphabet. The mass majority of the outsider whom inhabit ate in Nuäärland, Nuer manage to educate the newcomers the dialect. The Nuer language is a Nilotic language closely related to the speech of the Dinka and Atuœt. The language is uniform with no definable dialects.
Nuer (Nuäär) Customs:
The Nuer culture is organized around cattle. But since the Nuer (Naath) people live in the Upper Nile valley, Nile perch is also an essential part of our economy. Grains and vegetables are available for all season. But cattle are not primarily for food, but our people do drink milk. Meat is eaten at important celebrations like wedding party, or when an animal is sacrificed.
We live pattern changes according to the seasons of the year. As the rivers flood, the people have to move farther back onto higher ground, where the old men and women cultivate millet and maize while the young men herd the cattle nearby. In the dry season, the younger men take the cattle herds closer to the receding or farther away Rivers. Cooperative extended family groups live around communal or share cattle camps.
We build only temporary houses or shelters. Houses in wet-season settlements have circular mud walls over stick frames with thatched roofs. As grain is harvested, it is dried on temporary scaffolds. In dry-season camps, men sleep with the cattle in shelters or byre made from local grasses and wood. Women may remain in or near the wet season areas when the men follow the receding waters toward the lower areas.
Parallel to territorial divisions are clan lineages descended through the male line from a single ancestor. These lineages are significant in the control and distribution of resources, and tend to coalesce or unite with the territorial sections.
The importance of cattle in Nuer life and though further exemplified in personal names. Men are frequently addressed by names that refer to the form and color of their favorite oxen, and women take names from oxen and from the cows they milk. Even small boys call one another by ox-names when playing together in the pastures, a child usually taking his name from the bull-calf of the cow him and his mother milk. Often a man receives an ox-name at birth.
Nuäär (Nuer) Marriage and Family:
Marriage in Nuer (Næy tin Naath) all legal marital unions are recognized through the exchange of bride-wealth, in the form of cattle, between the husband's kin and the rightful claimants of these goods among the family of the bride. A standard ideal of forty (50-or 80) head of cattle comprises or made up, the expected number of cattle to be received by the bride's family. In Nuer eyes, however, a marriage has not been finalized until the bride has given birth to at least two children. The actual exchange of bride-wealth cattle is so a lengthy process and can be stalled or broken off by a number of phenomena or things appearing to view. Once a third child has been born of the union, Nuäär consider the marriage to be tied. The women has become a full member of her husband's agnatic lineage, along with her children, through marriage, the continuity of the husband's lineage has been assured, and following the birth of two or three children, the wife's role in expending relationships of kinship has been realized. Whatever else the bride's family and kin get, they must get certain animals or the marriage cannot take place. Hence these basic claims take precedence and their titles are always the first to be acknowledged. The conventional order is as follows:
I. The cows of the paternal grandparents. "wañneèn Guàn"
II. The cows of the maternal grandparents. "wañneèn Man"
III. The cows of the father with its calf, and his ox. "Yañ guàn kænæ dœwdæ kæ thäkdæ"
IV. The cows of the mother with its calf. "Yañ man kænæ dœwdæ"
V. The cows of the paternal uncle with its calf, and his ox. " Yañ guànlèènä kænæ dœwdæ kæ thäkdæ"
VI. The cows of the maternal uncle with its calf, and his ox. "Yañ manlèènä kænæ dœwdæ kæ thäkdæ"
VII. The calf (heifer) of the paternal aunt. "dœw (nac) waacä"
VIII. The cow (heifer) of the maternal aunt. "yañ (nac) manlenä"
IX. The cow of the father's spirit. "yañ Kuœth guààr"
X. The cow of the mother's spirit. "yañ Kuœth maar"
XI. The ox of the uterine brother. " thäk dämaar"
XII. The ox of the paternal half-brother. "thäk gat guààr"
Nuäär (Nuer) Culture:
Nuer culture cattle have historically been of the highest symbolic, religious and economic value among the Nuäär. Cattle are particularly important in their role as bride-wealth, where they are given by a husband's lineage to his wife's lineage. It is this exchange of cattle which ensures that the children will be considered to belong to the husband's lineage and to his line of descent. The classical Nuäär foundation of ghost marriage, in which a man can father children after his death, is based on this ability of cattle exchanges to define relations of kinship and decent. In their turn, cattle given over to the wife's patrilineal enable the male children of that patrilineal to marry, and thereby ensure the continuity of her patrilineage. Barren women can even take wives of their own, whose children obviously biologically fathered by men from outside unions, and then become members of her patrilineage and she is legally and culturally their father, allowing her to participate in reproduction in a symbolic sense.
Nuer people are very well organized in term of cultural system. The lineage is so in its corporate character a composite structure of cognate branches and attachments in which the Nuer value of agnation is the integrating principle. The group of persons living together and thereby the lineage structure which contains them.
Typical foods eaten by the Nuer tribe include beef, goat, and cow's milk sorghum in one of three forms "Kop" finally ground handled until balled and boiled, it called "wal wal" ground, lightly balled and boiled to and solid porridge, also there is one called "Kuän Nath" which mean Nuäär food.
Nuäär "Nuer" Arts, Music, Literature and Handicrafts:
Nuäär arts, music and literature like in most unwritten culture are orally transmitted over generations in songs, stories and folktales. The Nuäär are very rich at songs, and folktales. Nuäär article of arts, and music include, lyre thöm, and bul kiæ "thor" which are similar to other Nilotice. And the rest of African people, Nuäär articles for self-defiance there is different types of, like stick "kææt" and spear "mut, bith" long side-blown trumpet carved from a single piece of Oryx horn that has been straightened and largely hollowed out. A man carries tobacco container or tobacco pouch it called "Gok" a Nuer woman carrying a long basket on her head it called "Dièny" and also other a tail basketry granary placed in front of a hut and byre it called "Šoth" another is called Nuer tobacco pipe bowl "Tony" this is a most important handcraft the Nuääri have developed. Nuer artistic initiative had now become really in Southern Sudanese national cultural heritage.
Nuäär (Nuer) Kinship:
Nuäär domestic groups are based on the perfect patrilineage descent. Kith or one's relationship should in some way be recognized as agnatic relatives. This principle is often confounding or confuse by the actual composition of local groups, but the ideal design persists across time. Nuäär imagine that all adult males can claim ancestry to all other adult males, although in actually neither domestic settlement pattern nor territorial segments conform to the ideal. The recognition of natural ties in the Nuer system of kinship values as social ties.
Society, Social Events, Attitudes, Customs and Traditions:
The Naath is a segmented society. The nuclear clans (Dièl) are the true owners of the land, in the present context village sites, pastures grounds, its fishing and drinking pools or seasonal streams. The Dièl or nuclear attracted others ethnic communities people could emerge into the Naath lineage and settled them as assimilation or marriage into Nuer society.
Nuäär Spirituality, Beliefs (Doctrines):
Nuer (Nuäär) believes that God is the spirit of the sky or the spirit who is in the sky" Kuoth Nhial" (God in Heaven) the creator, but Nuers believe in the coming of God through rain, lightning and thunder, and that the rainbow is the necklace of God. The sun and the moon as well as other material entities are also manifestation or sign of God, who after all is a spirit.
The spirits of the air above are believed to be the most powerful of the lesser spirits, while there are also spirits associated with clan-spears names such as WiW, a spirit of war, associated with thunder. Nuers believe that when a man or a woman dies, the flesh, the life and the soul separate. The flash is committed to the earth, while the breath or life goes back to God (Kuoth). The soul that signifies the human individuality and personality remains alive as a shadow or a reflection, and departs together with the ox sacrificed, to the place of the ghosts.
Nuäär (Nuer) Religion:
Cattle play an important part in Nuer religion and ritual. Cows are dedicated to the ghosts of the owner's lineages and personal spirits that may have possessed them at any time. The Nuer (Nuäär) believe they establish contact with these ancestor ghosts and spirits by rubbing ashes along the backs of oxen or cows dedicated to them, through the sacrifice of cattle. No important Nuääri ceremony of any kind is complete without such a sacrifice.
Nuääri have a traditional religious worldviews usually called. "Animistic" or living plants, but they worship a supreme being called Kuoth who has various manifestation or sign with which some claim to have personal relationships. Nuääri or (Nuer) prays for health and well-being, offering sacrifices to Kuoth so he will answer their petitions. There is no organized religious hierarchy or chief priest or system accept Nuer people worldwide. But many individuals serve as diviners and healers. "Tièt"
Nuers do not believe in a place of after life for the spirit, and their religious concepts deal with concerns of this life. They do believe the spirits of the dead can affect their current life. The more recently deceased, the more influence they have. Nuer honor and appease or calm down the spirits of their ancestors. Cattle are sacrificed to God and the spirits. Nuers believe that all life comes from Kuoth "God" and returns to the same divinity at death.
Nuer spirit shrine, a shrine with in a homestead set up to appease a spirit, almost certainly shrine with a wild date branch planted next to a shrine a bunch of grass and a new "Buœr" ritual fires screen near to the hut. The horn of a goat sacrificed by the prophet is also just hanging from a branch.
Nuäär "Nuer" Neighbours', Foreign Relations and Co-operation, and socio-political organization:
Nuer political segment and Dinka political section changes into a relationship in which the Nuer subdivision becomes entirely dominant or leading mixture and not a class structure result.
As far as history and tradition go back. Dinka and Nuer were conceived by them to be a normal state of affairs and a duty, for they have a myth or fairly story, like that of Esau and Jacob, which explains it and justifies it. Nuer is a younger son than Dinka both of them are represented in this myth as two sons of one father who promised his old cow to Dinka and its young calf to Nuer. Dinka came by night to father's byre and, imitating or copy the voice of Nuer, obtained or secure the calf. When father found that he had been tricked or deceived he was angry and charged Nuer to avenge.
Nuäär language institute, in Australia is a non political association or organization founded in Victoria, in 2009. (Nli) is an organization of Nuäär literacy workforce, linguists, language development workforce and Nuäär language.
The Association purpose and it Mission.
The Nuäär language institute will assist the Nuäär community in Australia to maintain and develop their language and cultural among Nuäär.
The institute will promote the benefit of literacy within the Nuäär community, and develop inventiveness to enable adults' education and children to preserve their mother tongue on trucks in written and reading.
The institute or organization will encourage Nuäär people a greater understanding of Nuäär cultural for society and development within wider Australia Nuäär communities. And develop the Nuäär activities in Victoria.
Aim and objectives of the association:
The primary concern of NLI is Thok Nath, the Nuäär language. The objectives of the association are following:
I. Preservation and development of the Nuäär language literacy and cultural.
II. Promotion of the importance of first language literacy amongst the Nuäär living in Australia.
III. Development of programs to concentrate on Nuäär literacy.
IV. Facilitation of the development of Nuäär, and access to settlement concerns and information in the Nuäär language, including information on social security, the legal system, domestic violence, child abuse, child support, employment, education and health etc.
V. Development of language and curriculum resources to support the teaching of the Thok Nath language.
VI. Development of training programs to improve Nuäär language skills of Nuäär teachers.
VII. Collection, safeguarding and digitization of Nuäär cultural materials, research and oral heritage.
VIII. Development and provision of Nuäär cultural awareness training programs for key service providers.
IX. Understand the relation between organization or association culture and the language it means Thok Nath. How does culture contribute to organizational innovation and success?
X. Appreciate the contribution of organizational culture to the management of change,
XI. Understand the analytic elements of organization culture and literacy, such as stories, myths, heroes and folklores.
XII. Revitalize and preserve the Nuäär language by encouraging Nuäär youth to be proud of their unique language and culture
XIII. Combat inter-community conflicts regarding two competing Nuäär language dialects,
XIV. Promote multilingual (Nuäär) functional literacy skills among the Nuäär in order to empower them to function effectively in a multilingual context, and
XV. Empower the Nuäär (particularly mother and youth) to spearhead development and problem-solving in their communities, in part through the provision of basic social services, without imperiling their cultural identity.
Aims of our writing policy:
General aims:
Specific objectives and aims:
I. To establish and /or strengthen a network of language education scholars and practitioners in Africa and Australia in the area of design and production of materials for mother-tongue based multilingual education in primary schools.
II. To develop in the framework of the language material as a mother-tongue and multilingual literacy materials website linked to other relevant sites in Australia, Africa and elsewhere.
III. To facilitate the development of the cultural awareness within Nuäär community.
IV. To raise awareness and increase confidence and self-esteem amongst the members of the community.
V. To develop a network infrastructure, this will support all disadvantaged communities.
The current association projects:
The Nuäär language institute has initialed a number of projects in order to work towards achieving the institute's objectives.
These projects comprise.
Briefs History:
The Nuäär language institute is an educational association on that was founded in Nairobi, in 1995, by Gatwec Kulaañ. The association was lay down the foundations to categorize and develop the Nuäär language to conserve Nuäär verbal communication and culture. The institute had its roots in the Nuäär cultural Society formed in back home.
The members of the Nuäär community first arrived in Australia in late 1984-85, are few people, but the language was not established, they tried to open Nuäär School as well as the first Nuäär primary school in Melbourne as a mother tongues in Australia, in 2003, therefore, Kulang tried to open Nuäär website but have no ability to continuing to created language web to preserve culture and development.
The objectives of the Nuäär language institute in Australia, is wider than its predecessor. The primary objective is the preservation and maintenance of Nuäär language and culture, although the Australian institute will make use of the internet through Nuäär language to make communications technologies to preserve Nuäär language and culture and encourage linguistic, anthropological and sociological research, and grow up our activities and development through network. Luka riek
Marriage Rules: Part II
Monogamy, polygyny, and polyandry all have inherent though different types of problems for family members. Not surprisingly, husband and wife disagreements are common with monogamy. Parent-child rivalry for the attention of the other parent is typical also.
With polygyny, jealousy between co-wives over perceived unequal attention from their shared husband is common. However, this is often avoided, or at least reduced, by giving each wife a separate house and a ranked status. The first wife is usually in a commanding position. Rivalry is also reduced by sororal polygyny , which is sisters marrying the same man. The assumption is that sisters will be more likely to amicably share a husband. The most disruptive rivalry in a polygynous family is often between the children, especially if there is something important to inherit, such as a royal title or wealth. This also results in rivalry between the mothers. The typical way of avoiding this situation is to formally define the eldest son or daughter of the senior wife as the heir apparent.
With traditional polyandry, the most common source of friction is rivalry between the fathers and their children for the attention of their wife/mother. This causes tension for the already heavily burdened wife.
Unusual Marriage Arrangements
Some societies are flexible in allowing unconventional marriage arrangements. The cattle herding Nuer tribe of southern Sudan are an example. A woman who is unable to have children is sometimes married as a "husband" to another woman who then is impregnated by a secret boyfriend. The barren woman becomes the socially recognized father and thereby adds members to her father's patrilineal kin group.
The Nuer also have several forms of "ghost marriage." A man may marry a woman as a stand-in for his deceased brother. The children that are born of this union will be considered descendants of the dead man–the "ghost" is the socially recognized father. This allows the continuation of his family line and succession to an important social position. A Nuer woman of wealth may marry a deceased man to keep her wealth and power. Married Nuer women traditionally have no significant wealth–it belongs to their husbands. With this form of "ghost marriage", there will be no living husband, though she may subsequently have children. She is, in effect, a widow who takes care of her husband's wealth and children until they are mature.
Second Marriage Preferences
Many societies have specific kinds of second marriage rules that anthropologists refer to as the levirate and the sororate . The levirate specifies that a widow should marry the brother of her deceased husband (as shown in the diagram below). The rationale for this rule is that it keeps the dead man's children and wealth within his family. It also maintains the existing bond between the two families. The levirate was named after Levi the son of Jacob in the Judeo-Christian Old Testament. It is a marriage rule that was common in Jewish society several thousand years ago and in other patrilineal societies that have polygyny.
A mirror image of the levirate is the sororate. It is a rule that a widower should marry the sister of his deceased wife (as shown in the diagram below). Both families usually encourage this remarriage because it continues the bond between them. Where polygyny exists, there may be a degree of sexual permissiveness between a husband and his wife's younger sister in anticipation of a presumed future marriage between them. This anticipatory sororate generally is found in societies in which sororal polygyny is popular. The older sister is likely to encourage this sexual relationship because she knows that her younger sister would be more likely to take care of her children if she dies than would a co-wife who is not related to her.
The Price of Marriage
The marriage process often involves a predetermined agreement to transfer wealth or to perform labor for one's in-laws. In the mostly monogamous societies of Europe and Asia, this traditionally has been in the form of a dowry, which is money or property given by the bride's family to the groom, ostensibly to establish a new household or estate. It is, in a sense, her share of the family inheritance. Dowries may be seriously negotiated, especially when the bride's family is wealthy. Until the early 20th century in Europe, rich families commonly hired lawyers do draw up formal marriage contracts that often specified the dowry details. The North American traditions of the "hope chest" and the bride's family paying for the wedding are survivals of a dowry system.
In India today, the failure to pay all of an agreed upon dowry amount is considered an extremely serious problem. It places a newly married young woman in a difficult and dangerous position in the home that she shares with her husband's family. Hundreds of these brides die each year in what are euphemistically referred to as "kitchen accidents." In fact, some are killed by the husband, mother-in-law, or other members of his family who view the failure to pay the agreed upon dowry as being a breech of contract and the ruining of his life. The death of his "failed" wife allows him to marry again and to obtain the dowry that his family believes he deserves.
Bride price (or wealth) is the reverse of a dowry. It involves the groom giving things of high value to the bride's father. Bride price is most common among polygynous, small-scale, patrilineal societies–especially in sub-Saharan Africa and among Native Americans. When European missionaries first encountered bride price, they misinterpreted it as being nothing more than a demeaning "bride purchase." It actually is a way of showing respect for the bride and her parents. At the same time, it is a compensation for the bride's family for the loss of her economic services. Very importantly, it is also a way of validating the groom's right to future offspring. In some societies, children are not "legitimate" if their father did not pay a bride price. It is more important than a marriage ceremony is establishing legitimacy.
Often the bride price is large enough to require kinsmen to help the groom in making the payment. This is especially common among pastoralists societies, such as the cattle herders of East Africa who have traditionally paid bride price with cows. Among tribes like the Nuer, Turkana, and Masai, borrowing to make up the agreed upon bride price puts the groom in debt to his older male relatives for many years. The bride's father usually disburses the payment in turn as bride price for his sons and nephews. As a result, the community's wealth is circulated.
Masai mother and child
Among these tribes, the bride's family has a strong economic interest in keeping her marriage together because a divorce would require the return of the bride price, which often has already been given away to relatives. If there are children, however, the bride price usually does not have to be returned, but they belong to the groom's family. He keeps the children instead of the bride price. In a sense, the bride price becomes a payment for children and, therefore, has also been referred to as "progeny price" .
In societies with little material wealth and social rules requiring sharing, it is rarely possible to accumulate a bride price. As a result, such societies often have bride service instead. The groom agrees to work for his in-laws for a set period of time. Among the Yanomamö and other lowland forest peoples of South America, this service may go on for years. Making it more difficult is the fact that Yanomamö men are customarily prevented from speaking directly to their in-laws and must avoid them.
In Melanesia , the Amazon Basin of South America, and scattered elsewhere among warlike peoples, there have been cultural patterns allowing marriage by capture as an alternative method of acquiring a wife. It has occurred usually when bride price could not be arranged or when women were in short supply. It is a mistake to assume that marriage by capture is always a forceful act on an unwilling woman. At times, it is merely a ritual or a cover for a prearranged elopement.
NOTE: In contemporary Japan there is a system of traditional gift exchanges between the groom's and the bride's families that does not neatly fit the usual definition of a dowry or a bride price. They have essentially combined both patterns in a largely symbolic gift exchange. When a couple becomes engaged, the two sets of parents formally exchange betrothal gifts with each other, thereby reinforcing that the marriage will be a bond between the families rather than just the young couple. In the Tokyo region, these "yuino" gifts usually consist of nine items that are considered to be auspicious (e.g., abalone, dried bonito, dried kelp, etc.). During this ceremony, the groom also gives "yuinokin" (betrothal money) to his future bride's family. It is understood that this money is to be used in establishing a household for the newly wed couple. During the late 1990's this betrothal money averaged 878,000 yen (a little more than $7,300 U.S. dollars at the time). It is popular for urban Japanese couples to design their own wedding rituals and to incorporate North American traditions (e.g., white wedding dresses, tiered wedding cakes, etc.). It is also very popular to get married in Hawaii and other places outside of Japan. For more information about contemporary Japanese marriage traditions see "Marriages of Convenience" and "What is the Ideal Marriage."
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
首爾 Twin Rabbit Hostel in HongDae
509-8, Yennam-dong Mapo-gu
注意: 確保所提供的相片準確與否,是酒店集團或個別酒店的責任。Travellerspoint並不為酒店不準確的相片負責。
Clean and modern guestrooms with free Wi-Fi and a washing machine are offered at Twin Rabbit Hostel, just 10 minutes' walk from Hongdae Subway Station (Line 2).
All the air-conditioned rooms come with a microwave, stove and fridge. En suite bathrooms are equipped with a shower.
Surrounded by eateries and local shops, it also provides luggage storage and local tour information.
Twin Rabbit Hostel is a 10-minute walk from the Airport Limousine Bus Stop and within a 10-minute walk from the youthful and lively Hongik University Area.
It is a 10-minute drive from Shinchon and Ihwa Women's University Street. Myeongdong and Namdaemun is a 20-minute drive away.
你住過這里嗎? 寫一篇評論
注意: 確保所提供的相片準確與否,是酒店集團或個別酒店的責任。Travellerspoint並不為酒店不準確的相片負責。


text:
- Filed Under
After two years of stalemate, prosecutors have offered a plea agreement in the case of an Agat man accused of beating his girlfriend to death with a metal pipe.
Roland San Nicolas Smith is facing murder charges in the Superior Court of Guam, and his case has sat idle since he was arrested in October 2010. It took a full year to determine if Smith was fit to stand trial, and another year went by before the case took any step toward resolution.
However, during a court hearing yesterday, Alternate Public Defender Stephen Hattori said the Office of the Attorney General had finally offered his client a ...


text:
9 items from 2015
13 August 2015 6:00 PM, PDT | DailyDead | See recent DailyDead news »
Stuffed with tricks and sprinkled with treats, Halloween night is a busy one for police officers, but a small town's law enforcement runs into something much more dangerous than teenage pranksters in Live Evil, an upcoming horror film that co-stars Tony Todd and is teased in a new trailer.
We've been provided with an exclusive premiere of the Live Evil trailer for Daily Dead readers to watch. You can catch Live Evil at three upcoming film festivals this Halloween season: the Diabolique International Film Festival in September (25th–27th), the Horror in the Hills Film Festival on October 17th, and the North Carolina Festival.
"A small college town police station is besieged by a supernatural force let loose on a sleepy Halloween night. The sheriff, and his loyal deputies, struggle with the evil they lock in their basement jail; a force that preys upon each person's worst fear, winning »
- Derek Anderson
3 August 2015 4:51 PM, PDT | WeAreMovieGeeks.com | See recent WeAreMovieGeeks.com news »
(Clockwise from top left) DJ Yella, Ice Cube, Mc Ren, Dr. Dre, Corey Hawkins as Dr. Dre, Aldis Hodge as Mc Ren, Jason Mitchell as Eazy-e, O'Shea Jackson, Jr. as Ice Cube and Neil Brown, Jr. as DJ Yella on the set of Straight Outta Compton.
Universal Pictures has released a new featurette, clip and photos for F. Gary Gray's Straight Outta Compton.
Taking us back to where it all began, the film tells the true story of how these cultural rebels – armed only with their lyrics, swagger, bravado and raw talent – stood up to the authorities that meant to keep them down and formed the world's most dangerous group, N.W.A.
Come back later this week for my look at Sunday's Hollywood press conference and hear what O'Shea Jackson Jr., Corey Hawkins, Jason Mitchell, Ice Cube and F. Gary Gray had to say about the film. »
- Melissa Thompson
12 May 2015 12:07 AM, PDT | National Ledger | See recent National Ledger news »
Tara Reid has hinted a new 'American Pie' film is in the works. The 39-year-old actress starred in the 1999 original but has now suggested a fifth theatrical film could be added to the series, with the movie set in Las Vegas. Speaking on Kiis FM's 'Kyle & Jackie O Show', she said: ''There's actually talks about [a fifth movie], they may be doing it in Las Vegas.'' The former 'Celebrity Big Brother' star - who played Vicky in the films - added she is eager to return to the franchise, as the theatrical films have grossed more than $989 million worldwide. It was previously believed 'American Reunion', which hit cinema screens in 2012 following a nine-year hiatus, would be the final film in the series, but bosses were reportedly impressed by how it performed at the box office and are keen to capitalise on its success. However, the ' »
11 May 2015 10:15 PM, PDT | Den of Geek | See recent Den of Geek news »
Plans may be afoot for an American Pie 5 after all, as Tara Reid suggests that talks are under way...
The fourth American Pie film to make it inside a cinema - American Reunion - may not have been a huge hit in America, but it certainly delivered elsewhere in the world. The movie took $57m in the States, adding a more than healthy $177m elsewhere on the planet. It would be fair to say its $234m box office haul more than paid for the film's production. And for a decent party afterwards.
Around the time of the movie's release, there was chatter about a potential American Pie 5, although things have been quiet on that front for a while. However, in a new interview, Tara Reid - who played Vicky in the films - has hinted there may be some progress.
"There's actually talks", she confirmed to the Kyle & Jackie O Show in Australia, »
- simonbrew
11 May 2015 10:21 AM, PDT | Digital Spy | See recent Digital Spy - Movie News news »
American Reunion looked like it was going to be the last in the American Pie series, but you can't keep a good comedy down.
Tara Reid has hinted that a fifth theatrical film in the series is in the works, and will go down the Hangover route by taking place in Las Vegas.
"There's actually talks about [a fifth movie], they may be doing it in Las Vegas," she told Kiis FM's Kyle & Jackie O Show today (May 11).
Reid played Vicky in the American Pie films, and when asked if she would return for a fifth, she responded with a passionate "yes".
Not including the straight-to-dvd spin-off films, the American Pie series has grossed a combined $989 million worldwide.
The Sharknado star was also asked about her strained friendship with co-star Jason Biggs, who told the late Joan Rivers on her web series In Bed With Joan that "no one knows what's going on »
26 February 2015 8:15 AM, PST | Den of Geek | See recent Den of Geek news »
In the wake of the Alien 5 news, here are 10 franchise sequels that also ignored at least one previous film.
We all have moments in our lives we'd prefer to forget, and so too do filmmakers. So what do you do when a movie franchise starts to go off the rails? Simple, just forget that the lesser films in the series never happened.
News recently broke that director Neill Blomkamp's taking this approach to the Alien universe. Recent interviews with both he and returning star Sigourney Weaver have revealed that Blomkamp's forthcoming sequel will not necessarily follow the events of Alien 3 and Alien: Resurrection, and pick up the story from Aliens instead (although he has since given a brief update on that).
Of course, we'll have to wait and see exactly how all this pans out. But it's by no means the first time in history that a film's »
- ryanlambie
8 February 2015 4:15 AM, PST | Digital Spy | See recent Digital Spy - TV news news »
The Voice UK rose to 8.7 million viewers last night (February 7), according to overnight figures.
BBC One's singing competition averaged a series high of 8.72m (40.3%) from 7.15pm.
The National Lottery: Win Your Wish List followed with 5.25m (25.3%), before Casualty managed 4.95m (24.9%).
On BBC Two, a Dad's Army repeat appealed to 1.74m (8.4%) from 8.35pm. Qi Xl continued with 1.26m (6.1%).
On ITV, Harry Hill's Stars in Their Eyes and Planet's Got Talent were watched by 2.35m (11.8%) and 1.97m (9.1%) respectively.
The latest Take Me Out entertained 3.05m (14.4%) from 8.05pm, with The Jonathan Ross Show appealing to 2.24m (11.5%) afterwards.
Channel 4's The World's Weirdest Weather was seen by 857k (4%) in the 8pm hour, before an airing of American Pie: Reunion garnered 974k (5.3%).
On Channel 5, a new instalment of CSI: Crime Scene Investigation interested 823k (5.2%) from 10.15pm.
ITV3's Foyles War topped the multichannels during primetime, with 940k (4.5%) tuning in from 8pm. »
6 February 2015 8:16 AM, PST | Indiewire | See recent Indiewire news »
When a crew wraps on the shooting of a film, a cinematographer's work is still far from finished -- he has to color correct the whole thing. In this video, cinematographer Daryn Okada ("Mean Girls," "American Reunion,") demonstrates how he did the color correction for the film "Dolphin Tale 2." He compares the digital process to completing a piece of wooden furniture; once you've carved the shape and constructed the design you want, the piece still needs the color and varnish to give it a rich sheen. That's what Okada is doing with images. With color correction, a cinematographer can manipulate colors and contrasts, completely changing the light in an image. With split screens showing both the raw and final images from "Dolphin Tale 2," Okada shows how easily he is able to manipulate the time of day, add a glow in the sky, or simply make everything look more lush and appealing. »
- Anya Jaremko-Greenwold
24 January 2015 1:00 AM, PST | Digital Spy | See recent Digital Spy - Movie News news »
Charlie Lyne's documentary Beyond Clueless harks back to the classic teen movies that shaped the '90s.
Featuring narration from The Craft's Fairuza Balk (and with clips of Robin Tunney, Devon Sawa and co), it made us feel a sudden pang of nostalgia and sent us on our own trip down memory lane to find out where they - and the rest of the '90s teen movie crew - are now.
So, here are 11 stars from some of our favourite '90s teen movies, and what they've gone on to do since:
1. Devon Sawa - Idle Hands (1999)
Dreamy Devon Sawa starred as lazy stoner Anton Tobias - who turns mass murderer after his hand becomes possessed - in the horror comedy Idle Hands.
He went on to play teenage prophet of doom Alex Browning in Final Destination (2000), and appeared as similarly unstable Stan in Eminem's controversial music »
9 items from 2015
IMDb.com, Inc. takes no responsibility for the content or accuracy of the above news articles, Tweets, or blog posts. This content is published for the entertainment of our users only. The news articles, Tweets, and blog posts do not represent IMDb's opinions nor can we guarantee that the reporting therein is completely factual. Please visit the source responsible for the item in question to report any concerns you may have regarding content or accuracy.See our NewsDesk partners


text:
package suncertify.db; public interface DBAccess { // Reads a record from the file. Returns an array where each // element is a record value. public String [] readRecord(long recNo) throws RecordNotFoundException;
Originally posted by Terry Martinson: George - when you say not to modify it in any way, do you also mean that we shouldn't change their comments to javadoc style? Or do you just mean to leave their basic info in the comment as is and ok to change to appropriate javadoc style? TJ
If it's a runtime exception it isn't a checked exception, so you needn't include it in the throws list. Right?
maybe you should look into creating a new interface and then adapt the new interface to the one provided by Sun.
parseInt public static int parseInt(String s) throws NumberFormatException Parses the string argument as a signed decimal integer... Parameters: s - a String containing the int representation to be parsed Returns: the integer value represented by the argument in decimal. Throws: NumberFormatException - if the string does not contain a parsable integer.
One minor point: if you document the MyRuntimeException using the javadoc @throws, then if you subsequently run DocCheck (Sun's check tool that makes sure everything has a javadoc comment that needs one, and among other things, tries to verify the javadoc comment against the code that's being commented) it will complain that you have a @throws MyRuntimeException but that exception is not actually listed in the throws clause of the method declaration.
Does anyone know of a precedence/example in SUN's API where Runtime exceptions are documented in the class methods but they do not appear in the throw clause.


text:
Controversial Sugarbush Meadow housing project in Sunderland gets nod from state Supreme Court
SUNDERLAND — After six years of appeals and court cases, the town will likely soon see a 150-apartment affordable housing complex on Plumtree Road.
The state Supreme Judicial Court in Boston has ruled in favor of Sugarbush Meadow LLC, ending court battles between the town and developer Scott Nielsen of Amherst.
"The project will proceed," Sugarbush Meadow attorney Peter L. Freeman said Monday.
The construction start date and the question of whether additional local permits are required still need to be determined, Freeman said.
In July, Nielsen sold the land to Bourey LLC, a limited liability company managed by Paul D. Boudreau of South Hadley and Gerard N. Aubrey of Holyoke. A spokesman for Bourey LLC could not be reached for comment.
In September 2006, Sugarbush Meadow filed for a comprehensive permit under Chapter 40B to build a 150-apartment complex on Route 116 and Plumtree Road in Sunderland. Chapter 40B encourages the building of affordable housing and streamlines the local permitting process for developers. The Sugarbush Meadow project promised 25 percent of the apartments would be subsidized as affordable housing. The local Zoning Board of Appeals, however, denied Nielsen's application in January 2008, setting off a string of appeals and court cases.
On Monday, the state Supreme Judicial Court affirmed the ruling of the Housing Appeals Committee, which in 2008 ordered the local zoning board to issue a comprehensive permit to the developer.
The local zoning board claimed the Housing Appeals Committee made five errors when it directed the board to issue the permit to Nielsen. The Supreme Judicial Court, the highest court in the state, rejected all of the zoning board's claims.
The local zoning board argued that the availability of low-cost, market-rate rental housing in town should be considered in determining the region's need for low- and moderate-income housing. It asserted that 83 percent of rental housing in Sunderland is leased at affordable rents, even though it is not subsidized by the federal or state government. According to the Supreme Judicial Court, however, state law defines low- or moderate-income housing as any housing subsidized by the federal or state government.
According to the state Subsidized Housing Inventory, there are six affordable housing apartments in Sunderland, less than 0.4 percent of the town's overall housing stock. According to state law Chapter 40B, if a town has less than 10 percent affordable housing, proposed developments may get expedited approval by its zoning board if at least 20 percent to 25 percent of the dwellings in that project qualify as affordable.
The six towns in the region — Amherst, Deerfield, Hadley, Montague, Sunderland and Whately — in total have less than 9 percent affordable housing stock. Within the six towns, there are 434 residents waiting for public housing, with a wait between two and five years for family apartments.
The Sunderland Zoning Board argued that the safety of future Sugarbush Meadow occupants outweighs the regional need for low- and moderate-income housing and that the Housing Appeals Committee did not have enough evidence to prove otherwise.
Town Fire Chief Robert Ahearn said the town lacks equipment to reach the roofs of the 42-foot-high buildings proposed in the project. The town does not have a ladder truck and its highest ground ladder reaches only 35 feet, he said.
The Supreme Judicial Court, however, ruled that the Housing Appeals Committee reasonably concluded that the risk to residents was minimal in light of the advanced sprinkler system to be installed in the building.
The court also brushed aside the town's argument that the project would be a financial burden by increasing the population and overall housing stock by 9 percent, thus requiring Sunderland to hire two additional police officers and two more firefighters. The complex would increase the school population by 54 children, according to the zoning board.
In its denial of the permit, the zoning board said that Sugarbush failed to provide proof that its project would be in compliance with the local wetlands bylaw, which prohibits construction within 100 feet of a wetland unless permitted by the local conservation commission.
The Supreme Judicial Court and housing committee have both ruled the town has not proven wetlands damage would occur and failed to show local wetlands concerns outweigh the regional need for housing.


text:
- Tickets >
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- Justin Traywick Tickets
Justin Traywick Tickets
Get ready for Justin Traywick, all the way live. Justin Traywick is playing this year in many cities . Buy premium Justin Traywick tickets and experience the thrill of a live concert with Justin Traywick at affordable prices.
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UAB invites Justin Traywick to end music fest with a country flair
This event featured a signature artist, Justin trauik. At 7: 30 multi-purpose room newly opened SMC allows groups of fans and music lovers and supporters of the Union of Arab banks enjoy a night of music. Although attendance was a little, this event helped.
April 2011


text:
Lafitte Projects
|This article is outdated. (December 2013)
The Lafitte Projects are one of the Housing Projects of New Orleans and are located in the 6th Ward of New Orleans Treme neighborhood. It is one of Downtown New Orleans' oldest housing developments and had many associated problems before being severely flooded and damaged during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.
By a Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) decree, the projects are being demolished. Providence Community Housing, a leading non-profit in the area, is slated to redevelop the Lafitte Projects complex as affordable, mixed-income housing. They are to replace every demolished unit. The large housing project was left mostly vacant following evacuations after the extensive flooding from Hurricane Katrina. Heated arguments have surrounded the demolition of the project, as some longtime residents wanted them renovated.[1]
The 27.5-acre (111,000 m2) site[2] is the future home to 1,500 affordable and market-rate homes. The first phase of the development plan includes 134 on-site affordable rental units completed in December 2010 and 47 on-site affordable homeownership units to be completed by March 2011. The overall Lafitte community will be constructed around existing schools, emphasizing education as the bedrock of the neighborhood.
The redevelopment will restore the historical street grid that was erased when the original housing development was built. The restoration will integrate the new buildings and residents into the city and provide for easier access to the surrounding areas. It will reconnect residents to essential supportive services, particularly those now offered at the reopened Sojourner Truth Community Center.
The development is being created in part by Low-Income Housing Tax Credit through Enterprise Community Investment, Inc., a real estate investment services company working to create affordable housing and develop communities. The homes are being built in accordance with the Enterprise Green Communities Criteria, incorporating healthy and energy-efficient building practices, materials and systems.
- ^ Adam Nossiter, "In New Orleans, Ex-Tenants Fight for Projects", New York Times, 26 December 2006, accessed 1 April 2011
- ^ [1]
External links[edit]
|Wikimedia Commons has media related to Lafitte Projects.
- http://www.providencech.org — homepage of Providence Community Housing
|This Louisiana-related article is a stub. You can help Wikipedia by expanding it.


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Louisiana State football coach Les Miles, right, and Kent State coach Paul Haynes touch base after Saturday's game in Baton Rouge, La. LSU won, 45-13.
- Filed Under
The following is a transcript of Monday's press conference with Louisiana State football coach Les Miles. LSU beat Kent State on Saturday, 45-12, and will play Auburn University on Saturday, Sept. 21, in Baton Rouge.
COACH MILES: I think we're doing a -- I think he's understanding what we want, doing the things. I think he's kind of -- he's geared in and his nine touchdown passes in three games is a school record. He leads the conference in pass efficiency with 45 for 69 attempts and 797 yards.
Last week, offensively we rushed for 300 and through for 270. Both backs Hill and Magee were over 200 yards. ...


text: Louis Begley, Why the Dreyfus Affair Matters (2009), a compelling account of the affair, notes similarities between the treatment of Dreyfus and that of suspected terrorists at the turn of the 21st century. Frederick Brown, For the Soul of France: Culture Wars in the Age of Dreyfus, 1st ed. (2010), portrays the affair as a manifestation of the division of late 19th-century France into two cultural factions—one secular and moderate, the other Roman Catholic and reactionary. Ruth Harris, Dreyfus: Politics, Emotion, and the Scandal of the Century (also published as The Man on Devil's Island: Dreyfus and the Affair That Divided France, 2010), counters that Dreyfusards and anti-Dreyfusards were not always strictly separated into liberal and conservative camps.