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Recently added to tl.urbandictionary.com
Nob 30
an episode of laughter that entails shaking or violent motion.
"You should prepare yourselves for a mirthquake, as today's comic strip was rated 7.1 on the rictus scale." - penny-arcade.com
ayon kay C Vogue ika-13 ng Nobyembre, 2006
Nob 29
using the bathroom while on the phone. direct relationship with the advent of cordless phones and cell phones especially, particularly in da club.
Caller: "Where you at?"
Callee: "Um, in the bathroom--do you care if I make this a stall call?"
Callee: "Um, in the bathroom--do you care if I make this a stall call?"
ayon kay Carrie Atwood/Holly Lester ika-26 ng Nobyembre, 2006
Nob 28
Lacht Aus Laut
German for "Laughing Out Loud"
German for "Laughing Out Loud"
"u r suxxx roflll"
"lal stfu"
"lal stfu"
ayon kay Herzeleid ika-27 ng Setyembre, 2003
Nob 27
Cyber Monday is the Monday after Black Friday, when online retailers will be looking for their biggest sales from those who checked out products over the thanksgiving weekend, and will now be ordering them Monday at work.
Forget those long black Friday lines, I'm going to order on Cyber Monday!
ayon kay Mike Schroll ika-26 ng Nobyembre, 2005
Nob 26
The act of buying an item or items of clothing with the intention of returning them for a refund.
Mary went to the mall to buy a new dress which she knew she would return. She practices the art of catch and release and thus can shop and save money.
ayon kay #SugarDaddy ika-25 ng Hulyo, 2006
Nob 25
An eye-popping sale that only runs for a short period of time on Black Friday. These sales are used to draw people into stores early on, and they usually result in long lines of people waiting for stores to open.
1.) "See that long line of people waiting outside Best Buy, Edmund? It ain't for free soup, there's probably a doorbuster there."
ayon kay Nudge ika-23 ng Nobyembre, 2006
Nob 24
Pants that are worn in anticipation of eating a huge meal (i.e. Thanksgiving dinner). These pants usually boast an elastic waist, to allow some give for that third helping of sweet potato pie.
The girls and I are going to a buffet for dinner, so I'm wearing my Thanksgiving pants.
ayon kay Contessa Vanessa ika-08 ng Setyembre, 2006


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Home > For Caregivers & Patients > Success Stories > Faye's Patient Stories
Print | Email Faye's Patient Stories
Faye Murman,a local photojournalist, spent nearly three months turning her talented lens on life at Magee Rehabilitation Hospital, shadowing four patients as they went through rehab for their spinal cord injuries. Entitled, The Fifth Floor: Spinal Cord Injuries at Magee Rehabilitation Hospital, the pictures and slideshows, appeared in the pages of the Daily News and Daily News website. The following is Faye's piece on Daren Dieter.

subset: commoncrawl


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- Tickets >
- Concerts Tickets >
- Alternative Tickets >
- Wetlands Tickets
Wetlands Tickets
Get ready for Wetlands, all the way live. Wetlands is playing this year in many cities . Buy premium Wetlands tickets and experience the thrill of a live concert with Wetlands at affordable prices.
Related Cities
Wetlands Videos
Oasis - Wetlands NY - 29/10/94 - 07 - Bring It On Down
7,850 Views
Oasis - Wetlands NY - 29/10/94 - 02 - Columbia
8,081 Views
Frog Wings Super Blues Jam at The Wetlands
9,286 Views
Eminem - Freestyle Live at Wetlands NYC (1997)
10,217 Views
Oasis - Wetlands NY - 29/10/94 - 06 - Live Forever
10,456 Views
Oasis - Wetlands NY - 29/10/94 - 01 - Rock n Roll Star
10,607 Views
Anti Heros in New York City at the Wetlands 2000
13,249 Views
Wetlands News
Digging in to save wetlands
Planted trees Kofi 40 Noel ' s Lake to celebrate the 40th anniversary of the Ramsar Convention on wetlands. Named after the city in Iran, the Ramsar Convention, an international treaty to recognize the need for conservation and sustainability.
April 2011
Mosaic has new mine plan
Operations there have threatened to shut down completely because of the lawsuit last summer on groups group largely with wetlands and is being disturbed by expanding the mine ' fingerprint s to at most Hardy County.
April 2011
Southern Dakota County site is where wetlands go when they die
When scanning a wetlands development must often pay creator permanently replaced in wetland Bank, like the one in the town of Eureka. Bachman now stood on the beach he restored wetlands next to his Farmington area.
April 2011
Elon Elementary wetland project helping the environment
Elon elementary boss Melissa led a group of students to school ' s wetlands, a joint venture with Lynchburg College. Credit: Lee Luther Jr digs a hole before Matthew sigmon planting a tree. Credit: Lee Luther Jr. Wyatt McCormick.
April 2011
Las Vegas Wetlands Brush Fire
The annual brush fire burns near the wildlife wetlands and UNLV football stadium. The fire burned more than 80 acres and firefighters took more than 20 hours to extinguish. Due to potential fire unattended cooking on a.
April 2011


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We recognize that you are a unique individual with your own specific goals, vision and educational needs. During your academic journey at Capella, our mission is to help you fully understand your underlying motivations as you carve your own path.
Our team of enrollment counselors and other advisors are here to help you find the degree program that's right for you, apply for admission, and walk you through the financial aid process.
Connect with an enrollment counselor to discuss which program best fits your needs, apply for admission, talk through the financial aid process, or answer other questions you have about Capella University.
Your enrollment counselor has extensive and ongoing training in your field of study and can offer insight about courses, career paths, and the skills in demand by employers.
Many of our enrollment counselors are also Capella students or alumni and can speak with first-hand knowledge about what to expect here. When you are ready, it is easy to connect with an enrollment counselor. Just call us at 866.561.9754, e-mail us or sign up to receive more information.
We recognize that you are a unique individual with your own specific goals, vision and educational needs. During your academic journey at Capella, our mission is to help you fully understand your underlying motivations as you carve your own path.
Capella University provides support and resources to our students who are veterans, active duty servicemembers, DOD employees, or their immediate family members. We assist with VA benefits, tuition assistance programs, and GoArmyEd, and help students pursue their educational goals while serving in the military. We are proud to offer military benefits, including a 10-15% tuition discount, credit for military training, flexible leave, and more.
We provide access, accommodations and advocacy for Capella students with disabilities. This includes online course room considerations, such as accessible textbooks and additional time on learning activities, and residential colloquia support, including sign language interpreters and mobility assistance. To learn more about our disability services policies and procedures or how to request academic accommodations, call us at 866.561.9754.
When you enroll, we will pair you with an enrollment counselor who most closely matches your area of study. They will help guide you step-by-step through the admissions and enrollment processes.
We can help you explore options for financing your education — including federal and non-federal loans, grants and scholarships, and employee tuition reimbursement. Learn more about our 12 Ways to Save you money and reduce your student loan debt.
Buy textbooks, online textbooks, and software in just a few clicks. Select programs provide access to free online textbooks.
As an enrolled student, you will have 24/7 access to technical support via phone or chat.


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One beautiful Saturday afternoon, I met fellow Tallahassee blogger Brie, who writes Le Grand Fromage, at Azu - Lucy Ho's latest concept restaurant. If it was anything like Masa, one of my favorite joints in town, I would be totally psyched. However, I knew it was the replacement restaurant for the former Lucy Ho's located near the I-10 overpass and Kaiser University. Hubby and I had eaten there once when we first moved here because we had a hankerin' for some good Chinese food. Sadly, all of our chicken dishes were made with dark meat and hubby's tummy didn't feel so good after our visit (insert frownie face here). So, I was hoping that with Azu would come some major improvements.
Azu - Where's the White Meat?
Labels: asian , chinese , lunch , restaurants , sushi , Tallahassee
Restaurant Pet Peeves!
Labels: restaurants , service
Marie Livingston's - You Clean Up Good, Girl!
When I first moved to Tallahassee, I asked around at work to see if there was a good steakhouse in town. Now, you must keep in mind that this was B.S. (Before Shula's). Someone mentioned Marie Livingston's, so hubby and I decided to check it out. I can't say I was really impressed by our visit. The location was very out of the way - off Monroe, past the Tallahassee Mall, past the I-10 overpass and tucked away as part of a hotel (it had no visibility from the street). We had to turn around a few times before we finally found it. All I can really remember about that first visit was that the inside seemed pretty old, dirty and tired. We were seated upstairs in the loft area - I remember going up some wooden steps - and that the steak was no better than I could have made myself at home. There was no seasoning on it, no sauce and no flavor. There was really no reason for us to go back.
Labels: restaurants , steak , Tallahassee
Mockingbird Cafe - An Inconsistent Truth
I love eating at new restaurants. I love it even more when the experience is spectacular. Unfortunately, that is not how my review of Mockingbird Cafe is going to go. I wish I could write something different about the new little place that has sprung up in Fusion's old spot, I really do. There were moments of brilliance, but then there were also moments of mediocrity. Unfortunately on this visit, the mediocrities tipped the scale. And that's the honest truth.
My friend invited me to dinner at Mockingbird after having a great lunch there with some of her co-workers. She had ordered the Cobb Salad, raved about the freshness of it and hoped to be able to order it again for dinner. I'd also heard through the grapevine that the transplanted Havana restaurant had a solid reputation. So I was more than thrilled to go with her.
When we arrived, we accidentally entered on the "lounge" side (formerly Tantra), where there were lots of small tables and some live musicians were setting up. Wanting to be able to hear each other talk, we walked over to the "cafe" side to get a table. I expected a complete re-imagination of the space. With a name like Mockingbird Cafe, and knowing about their original Havana location, I expected something akin to the Central Perk coffee shop from Friends (see the photo below).
You know - big comfy couches and chairs, quaint and colorful artwork gracing the walls, even perhaps some sort of antiques filling in the empty spaces at the edges of the room. However, there was hardly any imagination applied to the redecoration. The tables and chairs are the exact same as those that Fusion used. And where Fusion's walls were maroon and grey, they have simply repainted them to a more neutral palette of white and beige. While some may think this a drastic change, it didn't make the place feel cozy, so much as sterile. And the large photos that graced the wall gave off a very depressing vibe - a Padaung woman with neck rings, an elderly African man with his head in his hands - not really the types of images I want to look at while I'm trying to enjoy a good meal and a fun evening out.
So, we averted our eyes and turned them to our menus. My friend didn't see the Cobb Salad on the dinner menu and so she asked our waitress about it. We were told that unfortunately, it couldn't be ordered at dinner. So, we asked the waitress if she had any recommendations. When she said that everything was excellent, it should have been my first clue. Usually when a waitress tells you this it either means she hasn't eaten any of the food (or at least not enough to feel comfortable selecting a favorite) or that none of the food is very good. We pressed her a little bit and she eventually told us that she can never bring herself to order anything except the Ribeye. She admitted she'd tasted a few other of the dishes, but the only thing she's eaten completely is the ribeye. So, my friend decided to order that. I opted for the Almond Crusted Mahi-Mahi. But first we decided to start off with an order of Sweet Potato Fries.
Now, these sweet potato fries were one of the shining stars of our meal. Cut thinly, dusted with sea salt and served with a side of bourbon barbecue sauce, these little beauties were honestly like crack. My friend and I did not stop eating them until every last little bit had disappeared from the plate. I generally like a good side of tangy honey mustard sauce with my sweet potato fries, but I thoroughly enjoyed the bourbon barbecue sauce. The bourbon added a little touch of sweet kick and kept the barbecue taste from being on the smokey side. It was a good start. I was looking forward to being WOWed by the entrees.
Unfortunately, I had no such luck. We'll start with my dish - the Almond Crusted Mahi-Mahi. Now, I'd hardly call that piece of fish crusted with almonds. Yes, there were almonds sprinkled on top, but to me, crusted means that there is a crust that goes all the way around the entire piece of meat - usually made up of crushed nuts, pretzels, coconut or something to that effect. Not so. It was supposed to have a honey-lime glaze. I didn't taste a hint of either honey or lime on this fish. It was also supposed to be served with a coconut-curry sauce. Now, generally a coconut-curry sauce is somewhere in the range of a white or light orange sauce. As you can see from the picture, this sauce was a deep red. And again, tasted neither of coconut, or curry. It actually tasted like it had more of a tomato base, which would account for the deep red color. It wasn't spicy, it wasn't sweet, in fact, it didn't really have much flavor at all. I felt the fish was a bit on the dry side, which with Mahi-Mahi isn't unusual. I find most people tend to overcook Mahi-Mahi, which is why I rarely order it at restaurants. But I though with it being glazed and then served with a sauce, that would cancel out or at least cover up the dryness. There was no covering it up, this dish just didn't work. And the napa cabbage stir fry that it was served with was not my cup of tea either. The bitterness of the cabbage and the saltiness of the soy sauce just didn't sit well together. I took two bites and abandoned it completely.
Now, for my friend's dish. At the recommendation of our waitress, she ordered the Blackened Angus Beef Ribeye. She wasn't sure about the tomato hollandaise sauce that it was served with, so she asked to have it put on the side. It was also served with beer battered onion rings and a side of mashed potatoes. I know that a ribeye is a particularly marbled cut of meat (aka: it has some fat in it), but it seemed like my friend's cut was mostly fat, and only some meat. It was also fairly cool by the time it had been brought out to our table. Not good. Fortunately for her, the mashed potatoes were outstanding. Very creamy and with a nice buttery taste, they just melted in my mouth. And because I could see some skins in the potatoes, I'm guessing they were homemade. My friend also thought the onion rings were quite good, with thick cut onions and a light, crunchy batter. I, as you all know, won't touch an onion with a 10 ft pole, so I've just got to take her word on it. Oh, and the tomato hollandaise sauce was fairly savory, even though it does sound a bit weird.
Determined to make up for our less than satisfactory entrees, we decided to order dessert. We selected the Vanilla Cheesecake, which came topped with blueberries and raspberries and was served with a sliced strawberry and whipped cream. What the entrees lacked in flavor, the cheesecake more than made up for. Fresh, fluffy and delectable, with visible flecks of vanilla bean, this cheesecake is one of the best I've had in years, outside of my own wedding cake (and that's saying a LOT!). Again, it tasted like it was made fresh, and not simply cut from a frozen pre-made concoction. So I'll give them credit for that.
Overall, I'm not sure this place lives up to all the hype I've heard. I'm willing to assume that I may have ordered wrong, or the chef may have been having a bad night, or that their lunch menu is simply better than their dinner menu. But all I can tell you for sure is that my experience was a very inconsistent one.
Tally Foodie Rating:
Atmosphere - C+ (I wish they would have made a bigger departure from Fusion, and featured some more uplifting artwork)
Taste - C+
Presentation - A
Service - A
Price - $$
Restaurant Info:
Mockingbird Cafe
1225 N Monroe St
Tallahassee FL 32303
Website Link
Labels: fusion , gourmet , restaurants , Tallahassee
Angelette's - Southwoodians Rejoice!
First of all, yes, Southwoodians is the correct terminology for all those of you who make your home in the community of Southwood! Because I made it up, that's why. And now you have something to be truly happy about, because after living with only Burger King and China Wok in your neighborhood for who knows how long, you are now graced with the presence of Angelette's Cajun Kitchen!
Labels: breakfast , cajun , lunch , restaurants , Tallahassee
Fuzions - Yogurt Your Way
It's been a while since I've done a posting on a dessert place - oh, who am I kidding, it's been a while since I've done a post AT ALL - but I'm definitely excited to tell you about Fuzions. It's a fairly new joint that has popped up on Thomasville Road next to Red Elephant and Five Guys, which makes it very convenient if you want to grab something sweet after dining at either of those establishments (which I highly recommend).
Labels: dessert , Tallahassee , yogurt


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ABQ BioPark Zoo
903 10th Street Southwest, Albuquerque, NM, United States
(505) 768-2000
Visit Website
Explore, Connect, Discover
Nature meets luxury aboard Ecoventura's ecological cruises to the Galápagos Islands
American takes pride in helping its communities.
In the world of astrophysics, it's very difficult to assimilate the vast magnitude of it all. Time is measured in millions of light-years, distances only make sense at the speed of light, and the mysteries outnumber the stars above.


text:
November 30, 2015
KNOX COUNTY, Ky. (WYMT)-The Knox County Sheriff's Department reports shots were fired Tuesday because of a neighbor dispute.
Henry King told police his neighbor, Glenn Campbell, fired a gun at him while mowing on property they were feuding over.
Campbell admitted to police that he fired a shot. He was taken to the Knox County Detention Center and charged with wanton endangerment first degree.
Click Here to access the online Public Inspection File
Viewers with disabilities can get assistance accessing this station's FCC Public Inspection File by contacting the station with the information listed below. Questions or concerns relating to the accessibility of the FCC's online public file system should be directed to the FCC at 888-225-5322, 888-835-5322 (TTY), or firstname.lastname@example.com.


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There are a couple of hefty milestones being celebrated this year at Gallaudet University in Washington D.C., plus an awesome tradition continues regarding the University's diplomas. (Guess who signs them?)
Read the rest of entry »
"Where did you go to school?"
Written by Katie Turcio-Canales, Marketing Intern
It is that exciting time of the year again where we get to announce the Finalists for the 2014 Frame My Future Scholarship Contest. It brings us great joy to say this scholarship has been such a great success in the last 5 years and this year is no exception.


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Oracle: Google knew it needed Java license for Android
updated 07:05 pm EDT, Mon April 16, 2012
Oracle starts off Google lawsuit with use of mail
Oracle formally kicked off the trial in its copyright and patent lawsuit against Google by citing telling Google e-mail. One of the plaintiff's lawyers, Michael Jacobs, referred to messages from Google engineers and executives that the company likely needed a license from Oracle to keep implementing Java in Android. The attorney saw this as evidence that Google knew it had done something wrong and simply hoped to hold out.
An example included statements by Google's mobile VP and Android co-founder Andy Rubin, who not only mentioned trouble negotiating a license but also that Google could be "making enemies." Jacobs interpreted this as as sign that Google knew it might antagonize copyright and patent holders. Among evidence, he pointed to the US Constitution's references to copyright protection and Google actively telling staff not to show Android to Sun workers at trade events before Sun had been acquired by Oracle.
Most of the trial as defined will center on questions of whether or not an app programing interface (API) can be copyrighted. Oracle has taken the view that an API is a special work, while Google defines an API as just an instrument to create code that itself might be copyrightable. If Google can define elements like API as unprotected, Oracle's case could fall apart, as the need for a license itself would be void.
Google is due to present countering arguments on Tuesday. Whether or not it succeeds in questioning Oracle's view, it has already managed a key win in having the San Francisco-based trial split into three phases, where copyrights, patents, and remaining issues are tackled individually. The strategy could see it make an offer if it loses early or persevere if it believes it has a chance at winning the case.
Any verdict could have major ramifications if Google and Oracle choose not to settle. A Google win could set a precedent against API copyrights and would make any attempt by Oracle to collect on Java more difficult. An Oracle win could not only see more widespread charging to use APIs but could have a chilling effect on Android. Oracle has had to scale back damage claims, but it may still have to pay ongoing royalties and potentially add a cost to the normally free Android license. [via Mercury News and Dan Levine]


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EMC Shares Stabilize
Shares of EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC) stabilized on Monday after Friday's dramatic earnings warning, which had resulted in the stock losing 25 percent of its value last week. On Monday the stock bounced up 0.72 (3.33%) to $22.32.
In the aftermath of the warning, however, the company's future was anything but clear. The severity of the warning elicited a mixed reaction on Wall Street -- some analysts have downgraded the stock while others have maintained Recommended ratings.
The company announced Friday that earnings will fall as much as 76 percent below estimates, with earnings per share coming in at $0.04 to $0.06 for the second quarter, well below First Call's consensus estimate of $0.17 a share. Revenue is now expected to be about $2 billion -- when most analysts were expecting around $2.4 billion, after already lowering estimates.
The conflicting messages from investment analysts suggest that the storage market is not immune from the economic slump that's causing problems for the rest of the IT market.
Bear Stearns maintains its Attractive investment rating on EMC, saying company fundamentals should improve once the economy picks up.


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Temple Fork Outfitters BVK Series Fly Rods are fast action rods designed to excel in presentation and distance. The BVK Fly Rod utilizes new materials that dramatically reduce weight while creating an aggressive blend of power and strength. The result is amazing performance and an incredible price.
BVK Series Fly Rods feature rich translucent olive blanks topped with matching braided carbon fiber reel seats, Temple Fork Outfitters' exclusive Tactical Series Stripping Guides, ultra lightweight chromium-impregnated stainless snake guides, and flor grade grips that are comfortably contoured and uniquely contrasted. The 5-piece models (TF 05 90-5B, TF 06 90-5B, and TF 08 90-5B) include a rod case. Models TF 03 80 4 B through TF 06 90 4 B feature uplocking reel seats with half wells grips. Models TF 06 91 4 B through TF 12 90 4 B feature uplocking reel seats with full wells grips and fighting butts.
Model TF 03 10 5 B is a conversion kit that allows you to change your 8 foot 3-weight BVK into a 10 foot Czech nymph/dry fly rod for ultimate on the water versatility. This two-piece conversion kit replaces the existing tip section of the TF 03 80 4B to extend the length to 10 feet.
All Temple Fork Outfitters Fly Rods feature TFO's Lifetime No-Fault Warranty.


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NTT DoCoMo adds 5.1-megapixel Cyber-shot
updated 12:20 pm EDT, Thu November 1, 2007
NTT adds SO905iCS
As a part of its incoming 905i series, Japanese carrier NTT DoCoMo is introducing a new Sony Ericsson phone, the Cyber-shot SO905iCS. The phone's primary feature is a 5.1-megapixel camera, which is also equipped with flash and 3x optical zoom, allowing it to serve as a genuine replacement for a separate compact. The phone is well-equipped in other areas too however, such as through built-in GPS functions, and access to FOMA 3G broadband. Its 2.7-inch screen is capable of 480x640 resolution, and the battery should last over 21 days on standby mode (without other use).
The phone should also be capable of playing music and video from microSD cards, and streaming 1Seg TV, though the latter drains the battery such that it can only be watched for 130 minutes without interruption. Normal call time is 200 minutes. The phone should debut in January or February of 2008, at an unknown cost, but in white, silver or pink colors. [via Impress Watch]


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FRIDE's Europe Central Asia Monitoring (EUCAM) programme, the Open Society Foundation's Central Eurasia Project (CEP) and the Regional Policy Initiative for Afghanistan and Pakistan (RPI) are organising a one day seminar Security, Supply Lines and Sustainable Development: Afghanistan and Central Asia towards 2014 and beyond on 29 November in Bundestag, Berlin. The seminar is hosted by Viola von Cramon (Alliance '90/Greens), Member of the Bundestag.
This one day seminar will bring together high level experts and policy makers from Europe, the US, Central Asia and Afghanistan to discuss security and development challenges in Central Asia and Afghanistan in the light of the 2014 draw-dawn of the ISAF troops.
The first session of the seminar will discuss causes of instability in Central Asia ranging from security in Central Asia to potential negative spill-over effects from Afghanistan. In the second session attention is devoted to the impact that western security and military cooperation programmes have on citizens and governance of the Central Asian states. In the last session we will examine matters of transparency and accountability in the process of transit-in-reverse contacts with Central Asian authorities.


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I've been debating several gentlemen on the 9/11 option grantee issue. The mainstream media (WSJ excepted) has been surprisingly silent on this, so I am gratified that Prof Bainbridge, Larry Ribstein and Eddy Elfenbein have indulged me in a debate on the subject. I went so far as to challenge these gentlement to invest with the corporate management that issues these options.
One of the interesting tangents that came up (via Prof Bainbridge) was the issue of technical analysis and the efficient market thesis. The good prof believes in the latter but not the former.
A few words on the subject are in order:
First, I am not a pure technician. I do use charts, but in combination with sentiment, valuation, monetary analysis, trend, quantitative data and macro-economics. I am much less interested in the classic pattern recognition TA than I am in Trend and Market Internals. You don't build a house with just a hammer, and there's no reason not to use tools that have proven historically useful.
Many of the charts I use are not what is commonly thought of as pure "Technical Analysis;" Rather, they are often market internals: Up/down volume, Advance/Decline line, 52 week high/lows, % of stocks below 200 day moving average, etc. — a true technician would call these quantitative and not technical.
However, I cannot imagine ever buying a stock without first pulling up a chart. So I guess that makes me reliant on technical analysis in some way.
Second, we should note for the record that the Efficient Market Hypothesis has become an outdated — and disproven — cliche. The Random Walk theory and EMH posits that consistent and regular outperformance of the market is impossible. Even the father of the EMH, Burton Malkiel, the Princeton professor who wrote A Random Walk Down Wall Street, has admitted that the many talented managers have consistently outperformed the indices — something not possible under a truly random walk thesis.
These outperformers include many technical and quantitative driven strategies. Hence, why Malkiel abandoned his so called strong random walk thesis — it was simply wrong. The original concept had too many flaws, and too numerous holes poked in it. So he introduced the weak version, who's primary attribute is that it is less wrong than the strong verison. Give Malkiel credit for recognizing the theories flaw and attempting to compensate for it.
Why are Markets inefficienct? The aggregation of irrational primates — Human investors. This is a burgeoning field called Behavioral Economics, and has produced several recent Nobel prize winners in Economics. It is also one of the reasons why the efficient market hypothesis frequently fails. See this for WSJ article for more details (if no WSJ, go here).
A perfect example of the failure of EMH can be seen in comments like this one: "all information concerning historical prices is fully reflected in the current price."
That's old school, and it is quite frequently a money-losing falsehood. Pray tell, what was embodied in the price of the market in March 2000, when the Nasdaq was at 5100, profitless stocks were trading at 50 times sales — and the marginally profitable ones were trading at 100 times earnings? Hmmm?
It turns out the market and the information embedded in the stock prices was simply wrong. Stocks were priced too high, markets were at unsustainable levels, and they subsequently crashed. The Nasdaq plummeted 78% over the next 2 1/2 years.
So much for the information contained in that pricing.
Fast forward to October 2002: the Nasdaq was at 1100, and many profitable, debt free companies were trading for below cash on hand. The market, in its pricing wisdom, had determined that a dollar was worth only 75 cents, and that profitable business operations were worth essentially nothing.
So much for the Wisdom of Crowds.
As I've written in the past, we have kinda sorta mostly eventually efficient markets — but that is not the same as actually being efficient as described in the random walk theory.
Markets have been shown to exhibit certain attributes – one of which is "persistency" — which makes outperformance possible. Look to these hedge funds with 10 year or better track records for more evidence of trend spotting and trading — what the EMH claims to be impossible.
Theoretically, these people — who have put together terrific long term performance records — cannot exist:
Bernard Baruch?
Bill Dunn (Dunn Capital)
John W. Henry
Tweedy Browne
Warren Buffett
Ed Seykota
Chris Davis
Richard Donchian
Richard Dennis
David Dreman
Louis Bacon
Tom Baldwin
Tom Basso (Trendstat Capital Management)
Peter Borish (Twinfields Capital Management)
Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors)
Richard Driehaus (Driehaus Capital Management)
Stanley Druckenmiller
Jeremy Grantham
Kenneth C. Griffin (Citadel Investment Group)
Mason Hawkins and Staley Cates
Blair Hull (the Hull Group)
Paul Tudor Jones
Mark Kingdon (Kingdon Capital Management)
Seth Klarman
Bruce Kovner (Caxton Corporation)
Bill Lipschutz
Peter Lynch
Michael Marcus
Bill Miller
William O'Neil
Randy McKay
Roy Neuberger
Mark Ritchie (Citadel Investment Group)
Marty Schwartz
Jim Simons (Renaissance Technologies)
James B. Rogers, Jr (Quantum Fund)
George Soros (SorosTrading)
Victor Sperandeo
David Swensen
Michael Steinhardt
Julian H. Robertson Jr., (Tiger Management)
Monroe Trout
Jesse Livermore
Stan Weinstein
Marty Whitman
And yet they do.
If technicals are voodoo, and quantitative data irrelelvant, than kudos to Bloomberg for building a multi-billion dollar data analysis business on a scam.
Investors who rely on old, cliched and discredited theories do so at their own peril . . .
UPDATE: July 22, 2006 11:16pm
Incidentally, how efficient is the market if we are just now learning about the 9/11 option grants, as well as the more than 2,000 companies that appear to have used backdated stock options in the 1990s?
Your answers should range from "Not very" to "Kinda/sorta" to "Eventually"
If the market ain't all that efficient, then we should expect to see outperforming managers in numbers beyond mere chance . . .
Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
59 Responses to "Random Walk and Outperforming Fund Managers"
well said…
the essence is why just say the market is "one way"
its a kinda sorta efficient market
technical analysis and market timing are like for the lack of a better analogy recognizing a higher power in the universe(God or whatever you call it)
If you haven't experienced a real time instance wherein it helped you predict the markets in contrast to the herd who inefficient misperceived reality, then you won't believe in it….
If your trying to win, why limit yourself in the weapons you utilize to do so….
Props to the Picture
I find it interesting that so many of these people are Trend followers ….. and don't follow any fundamentals whatsoever ……. what does that tell us about fundamental analysis and the many CFA's walking around
Out of these outperformers , what percentage are they of the universe of fund managers ?? …… less than 1% ….. I would posit that would prove why money managers are overpaid and of no value …. and it's why more and more $ is chasing index funds and ETF's ….. should be another topic that you discuss at some point
I think it's better to allow them to continue being deluded, Barry. The fewer people who use technical analysis, the better. Let 'em continue to think it's worthless. We're better off.
Good article, I may have to reference to it the next time I mention market inefficiency.
The theory itself is liken to looking back 20, 30 years for some data and from the data, finding a favourable conclusion that you were looking for. Statistics is simply that, and it's up to the statistican to spin the number in a favourable way, and the efficient market theory is an example
There are good managers, and bad managers. The real issue with the "perceived efficiency" is that bad managers number more. What's contributing to that?
The well oiled financial marketing machine for one. How many mutual fund companies and funds are out there? Is it necessary?
Also, I hazard a guess that most of the fund managers mentioned (if they really exist =) would have in common that they have more control over the way they invest than an unproven fund manager working a 9 to 5 with a company. That fund manager has to answer to the sentiments of its unitholders and may be forced to tweak a portfolio that otherwise would have been better being left alone, becaus their jobs are on the line.
As for the comments about the managers following trends, I'm not so sure since I'm not familiar with most of the names menionted. I do see a few names not mentioned (David Dreman comes to mind, if I'm correct) that are proponents of value investing, fundamental analysis. Value investing is all about common sense, and working with that in an non-emotional temperment. However the "wisdom of crowds" work with neither of those. So for a value fund manager, unless you get to do what you want to do, it's not easy to cater to unitholders when the values of both parties are fundamentally different.
I wonder about the comment regarding CFAs. It it even a prestige anymore?
Correction, I meant "perceived efficiency" instead of "perceived inefficiency"
Trend followers have outperformed for years yet never receive the respect they deserve
I trade the German Bund futures for a living. I am based in Asia and I know "nothing" about the German and Euro economic conditions. I don't even follow ECB monetary policies.
However, what I do know is the price action of the bund – all the intra day high and lows (I know them by heart to read the tape) and I know the daily chart price action.
That's all I need to know to trade – no fundamentals whatsoever.
It's the simplest and most effective way to trade.
How does Prof Bainbridge intend to demonstrate that Technical Analysis is useless without USING Technical Analysis to support his claim?
Now that the efficient market hypothesis (and capitalization-weighted index funds based on it) is discredited as bogus, the latest and greatest fashion in the indexing world is "fundamental indexing" as described here:
And as sold to the public here:
Barry has discussed this in the past, but not today. How does fundamental indexing alter the anaysis, if at all?
(Also, I am still waiting to hear what Barry wanted to say on Kudlow about housing last night.)
"Investors who rely on old, cliched and discredited theories do so at their own peril . . ."
Yet mutual fund investors who choose a index fund in a given category over still have a higher probability of returns superior than those received by investors choosing actively managed funds once you move into multi-year periods. Vanguard's small cap fund, for example, has done better than 90% of managed funds in its category over the past 5 years, even though its manager does not use technical analysis and all the various tools you've mentioned. Not all index funds see quite that level of outperformance, but hardly a case in which investors got screwed from relying on "old, cliched, and discredited theories."
I know this is a market blog and you're a money manager with an axe to grind, but you fail to deal with this issue in your analysis of Malkiel's work.
"If technicals are voodoo, and quantitative data irrelevant…"
Straw man alert.
I'm with Joseph Ellis (author of Ahead of the Curve) — to have a good predictive technique, you need a plausible hypothesis supported by data. A purely quantitative approach, e.g. predicting the stock market on the basis of who wins the Super Bowl, isn't going to work in the long run…
In the end, everybody does what they do best. I'm (going to be) more of a fundamental investor. TA doesn't really appeal to me personally. And if widespread disgust with incompetent fund managers leads to massive index funds all automatically buying high and selling low, there will be lots of values out there for me to exploit. If technicians and momentum investors ride the downtrend of a stock until you can pick up a quality company for next to nothing, i'm not going to stop them :)
I'm sure Warren Buffett , Marty Whitman , Tweedy Browne , Chris Davis , Roy Neuberger , Leucadia use technical analysis !!!!!!!!!!!
It's not that the trend followers believe that fundamentals aren't important. It's that they believe the fundamentals are already reflected in the price. Which means that they're actually somewhat guilty of believing in efficient markets, doesn't it?
It makes me wonder how much of their success is due to position sizing, money management, going long and short, and trading many different markets, and how much is actually due to trend following per se. I'm not disparaging them, because I understand how good they are. I'm just wondering about that.
Perhaps Larry Summers said it best (after the 87 crash): "The efficient market hypothesis is the most remarkable error in the history of economic theory."
Technical and fundamental approaches can both work wonders in the right hands. And of course they can work spectacularly well in concert. Surprisingly, many virtuosos of one school don't recognize the value of the other. (Soros is on record as saying technicals don't work. We know how the trend followers feel about fundamentals.) When it comes to investing approaches, there is an odd provincialism that borders on the religious. Maybe it's the tribal tendencies in our genes.
In my opinion the failings of random walk theory are symptomatic of neoclassical economics' biggest problem in general: a tendency towards gross oversimplification. Economics started out as conjecture and soft theory–guys arguing with each other subjectively and off the cuff, the way poets and philosophers do. The neoclassical approach rescued economics from this fuzzy-headed swamp by applying rigor and logic, but they got so excited about the trappings of hard science that they threw the baby out with the bathwater. "Man, humans are messy. Wouldn't it be cool if we could invent a robot called 'rational economic man' and study him instead? Wouldn't the formulas be so much more logical and rigorous that way?" And so they took that ball and ran waaaaay too far, creating an artificial world that resembled reality in some ways but grossly distorted it in others. As if in their zeal for exactitude, the neoclassical economists decided that Pi could just be rounded off to 3, and all irrational numbers could be ignored. There are plenty of other areas besides random walk where gross oversimplification dramatically underserves–trade deficit calculations for example–but random walk is the most famous example because it got turned into a rallying cry for mediocrity (hooray, we're all average!) and a ubiquitous index-fund marketing tool.
The other reason random walk still survives (in my opinion) is because economics as a field is so polluted by corporate and political influences, and the random walk idea generally serves those influences. The reason that the vast majority of managers can't beat the market is because real investing / trading skill is rare and thus carries a high premium, but that truth is horribly non-egalitarian and doesn't play well in Peoria. Better to say no one is skilled than admit that rewards can and will accrue to a small minority on a consistent basis.
Not to mention that the vast majority of economic forecasters and prognosticators have personal biases akin to cancer researchers getting funded by big tobacco. On top of that, wishful thinking runs rampant in economics and politics–and the myth of a level playing field appeals to politicians, idealists and Wall Street marketers alike.
"The other reason random walk still survives (in my opinion) is because economics as a field is so polluted by corporate and political influences, and the random walk idea generally serves those influences. "
It's the opposite. How does Wall Street sell the services of its managers by pushing random walk theories? Where is the money flowing into DC from the proponents of Random walk, who mostly are in academia? Most people have no idea what the theory entails, let alone follow it.
As for wishful thinking, I'd rather get a buck for every guy who thought he could outtrade the market than a buck for every guy who thought he couldn't.
Given a wide number of market participants, outperforming the market over the long term is proof of nothing and is easily captured in a random scenario.
Consider the exercise I remember from finance class: Every student (50 or so) in the room is given a coin at "year one" we flip. Heads, you beat the market, tails, you don't and sit down (normally half the room). Next round, "year two" same thing, another half the room sits down. Fast forward to "year 10″ and a few "market geniuses" have beat the market for 10 straight years…oh my god, how did they do it…
"Theoretically, these people — who have put together terrific long term performance records — cannot exist:"
Actually, that's not true at all. Randomness would always allow some chimps with darts to out-perform the market, even in the long term.
And for how many of those is it really verifiable that they have beaten the market long-term?
You are always showing this chart and that chart, but you never go back and measure the results if an investor followed these charts after you published them. Like almost all technical analysis, it seems only sure to work in hindsight.
You can debate until the cows come home whether efficient market theory holds or not. One thing you cannot debate is the performance of index funds. They routinely outperform actively managed funds. Before all you stock pickers fly off the handle, fund managers can revel in the fact that BEFORE fees (mgt, transaction costs, taxes) the average fund manager does outperform their relative benchmark. So, what is the lesson learned? Fund managers prove the market efficiency theory wrong every day (can you say Seth Klarman?). However, they are not good enough to consistently outperform their benchmarks and the fact that efficient market theory is about 80% correct.
For you non believers check out Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA). They do not pick stocks. How do they consistently outperform their benchmarks? They believe in efficient market theory and they operate as a block trading partner for counterparties that want to dump "bad" stocks. Because of this clearing function that they provide and the credibility that they have earned, DFA almost always acquires stocks a 50-150 basis points below the current market value. They don't spend a dime on research and they trade so efficiently that they basically eliminate transaction costs. They run a cheap operation and bet on high book/market ratios and the efficient market theory.
The take away is that you can find plenty of "smart" managers out there. I say "smart" because equating skill to outperformance is difficult. More often than not the outperformance is luck. Nevertheless, most of these "smart" managers cannot beat the flawed efficient market theory when they gouge you on fees.
BR: Problem is, index funds have underperformed the broader markets for the past 6 years . . .
Again with the Turtles!!!!
Thank you PC, that's exactly how I trade and I also trade for a living. I trade options on the Q's short term.
X's argument above is made repeatedly in the book Fooled by Randomness. You set enough monkeys typing and someone produces the encyclopedia britannica sooner or later. There are an awful lot of monkeys issuing buy and sell orders to the financial markets.
That isn't to say that the efficient markets hypothesis is true. It just means the existence of winners with well-defined trading strategies isn't a counter example. From X's example above, the student who won probably had a very good song and dance about why he predicted the coin flips correctly.
It's the opposite. How does Wall Street sell the services of its managers by pushing random walk theories? Where is the money flowing into DC from the proponents of Random walk, who mostly are in academia? Most people have no idea what the theory entails, let alone follow it.
Wall Street is an equal opportunity marketer, and random walk theory would not be nearly as prevalent without Wall Street's support. Every time an investor is convinced to put their money in an index fund or some other faceless vehicle in which the manager is unknown, random walk thinking plays a role. Ibbotson studies and the like have random walk theory as a spiritual father, whether that is spelled out or not. Think about it: how crazy is the idea that you can just throw your money into some passively managed vehicle (or 'unknown third party with competing interests' vehicle) and X years or decades later it will all have worked out swell for you. This idea runs absolutely counter to the notion of active self-interest and the requirement of intelligent decision making to produce a desirable outcome. It also runs counter to the notion of intelligent asset allocation, the raison d'etre of capital markets in the first place.
Personally I think passive investors are some of the biggest gamblers going–the very idea of passive investing as a viable methodology is a philosophical sham. Of course indexing works during secular bull market periods, which can last a long time, but assessing what conditions make for a secular bull market stil requires active thought (and the foresight to get out at the end; 3-month treasury bills have beaten the S&P for 8 years now, as we head into another period of recession and decline). The random walk idea, and the cocoon of comfort it provides, underpins the entire passive investing philosophy.
As for Wall Street marketing their active managers, who says they can't have more than one racket? Wall Street is about making money, not philosophical consistency. Random walk theory plays to the fear tendencies of investors, active management promises play to the greed. Get 'em coming and going, it makes for good business.
On its face, random walk theory was intellectually suspect from the get go. Why would a mechanism as inherently complex and emotion driven as markets exhibit an almost mystical tendency of wholly rational outcomes? In what other areas of reality is "perfect information" distributed without a hitch? The whole concept is philosophically obtuse, an offbeat utopian fantasy.
Many who defend random walk like to do so by pointing out the holes in TA–but taking potshots at one theory does not prove another, and making light of spurious hand-picked examples certainly does not prove anything. And of course the irony is that the greater the population of investors who place their faith in ignorance, the better the minority will do so who are able to exploit that ignorance.
In fact arrogance + ignorance is the real problem here. Believing that "no one can beat the market" is a fantastical claim, requiring a much greater depth and breadth of evidence than the statement "most cannot beat the market," which is empirically verifiable and not all that significant. Much confusion comes from the conflation of these two statements, sometimes deliberate; when the random walker is caught red-handed conflating the two, their argument often morphs into a whiny idealistic protection of the little guy, that hapless joe who can't beat the market and doesn't know it and thus needs to be protected from itself. Rather than be a champion of the people, a pointless exercise, I prefer to give the average individual credit for their own decision-making capability and the personal responsibility that goes with it.
The distinctly un-PC truth, in my humble opinion, is that those who argue vehemently for the random walk have holes in their cognitive framework big enough to drive a Mack Truck through. Fortunately when it comes to markets the skilled trader / investor doesn't have to convince the hard-headed random walker of anything; they can just keep goin' about their bidness.
I'm interested in understanding this better. I believe the random walk proponents believe that even if you beat the markets for many years, you cannot do so consistently. The DFA guys even have a list showing market timers underperforming the S&P500:
None of this really matters.
If a sufficient number of investors use technicals and charts, and they do, and they control enough total resources, then it doesn't matter if their analysis is perfect or even reflects reality. They ARE reality, at least for a time.
If they are a sufficient number then it is THEIR movement we are tracking.
Right or wrong, if they are large enough in number, they will move the market and determine within a few pts, support and resisitance. Hence you get TA.
It doesn't really matter if the TA is the chicken or the egg as long as it indicates the direction of the elephants.
Fund managers prove the market efficiency theory wrong every day (can you say Seth Klarman?). However, they are not good enough to consistently outperform their benchmarks and the fact that efficient market theory is about 80% correct.
Here's what I don't get. Who needs a theory that is 80% correct? Why not just throw the $@#$# thing out and admit it was close but not cigar?
Imagine if engineers were taught structural load theories that were 80% correct. How well would that work?
There is nothing wrong with "I don't know," or "We don't have a full answer yet." Plenty of serious scientists make these statements all the time in other demanding and rigorous fields. Yet here we're supposed to say "Screw it, EMH is clearly jacked up in significant ways but it gets kinda close so we'll go with it???" That is an intellectual travesty.
p.s. I don't see the controversy in pointing out that index funds routinely outperform actively managed funds on balance. This is not an argument in favor of efficient market theory at all! It is an argument in favor of different assertions: that less activity is better than more when it comes to large sums, perhaps, that decisions of general allocation and exposure are more important than decisions regarding the manager selected, and, most importantly, that alpha is in limited supply and will only be generated by a minority of exceptional performers.
But once again, the random walkers work backwards here. They say "the Seth Klarman instances are few, so we can ignore them or pretend they are just anomalies." A truly scientific approach, that seeks to explain the phenomenon in question instead of seeking to conform evidence to a preconceived notion, would NOT ignore the Klarman instances, however few, that blow the theory all to hell. Instead, honest economists would willingly go back to the drawing board, and engage in more research and reduction, instead of clinging to a too-big, too-general, too-goofy, "80% correct" theory. But this isn't happening because inertia, politics, incentives, and ego all play an entrenching role.
I'm not sure retail stock funds are the best way to evaluate whether the efficient market hypothesis is true. First, they are heavily regulated. Second, their business models are not predicated on beating the market. It is a fee driven business.
Probably the biggest factor driving underperformance in the long run is funds are not chiefly chosen for wealth preservation; they are chosen for capital appreciation. This leads many funds to chase rallies. This is substanciated by many funds having great one-year and two-year returns, but poor 10-year returns. No disrespect meant to institutions, but they are not investment firms; they are traders with large bankrolls. I have nothing against traders, but it isn't investing. I have nothing against condo-flippers either, but that isn't investing.
Compare the fees you can get for an index fund and that which you get for a mutual fund, and I think it's pretty obvious why Wall Street isn't too enthused about index funds. ETFs are becoming a different story for brokerage houses, but only because people will trade them like stocks.
"how crazy is the idea that you can just throw your money into some passively managed vehicle . . . and X years or decades later it will all have worked out swell for you."
Not crazy at all, if you understand the concepts involved, the importance of allocation, and the aspects of behaviorial investing Barry frequently references such as overconfidence and a misapprehension of risks by investors, and look at performance histories. VFINX's record over the past 30 years is 12% annualized. The percentage of investors, pro and amateur, who've had a run that exceeds that is pretty small.
Trader 75,
Wow. You sure are fired up about EMT. I take it from your well-stylized prose and heady vocabulary that you fancy yourself a pretty sharp guy. That being the case, go back and read my comments about EMT again. They do not defend EMT. Rather, they point out the weakness in the counter argument that active managers, on balance, are no better than a "flawed" theory. Did the Seth Klarman comment not bring that out? The DFA example simply shows that managers can rely on EMT if they can generate performance through operations.
The bigger point is that most active managers are crooks. A very small subset of managers is worth their compensation.
You brought up "alpha." Generating alpha sure smacks of academic theory to me. Personally, I don't care if some manager generates 200 bp of alpha if the net result is still negative or less than the risk free rate. I don't see that as "good" performance. I see that as a loss. Generating alpha might indicate skill in an academic sense, but it does pass the simple businessman's test – Did I make money or lose money?
Wow. You sure are fired up about EMT. I take it from your well-stylized prose and heady vocabulary that you fancy yourself a pretty sharp guy.
Actually no ML, not all that fired up. Just enjoy a good debate. It's a fun and interesting topic, although not all that important in the big scheme of things, as others have pointed out.
I fully agree with you that the majority of active managers are, if not necessarily crooks, at least not worth their fees. I used 'alpha' in the offhand sense to refer to outperformance vis a vis a broader group of managers; of course you are right that, at the end of the day, absolute performance is what matters. (Which, by the way, doesn't strike me as an EMT-friendly belief. Hmm.)
Not sure what to do with the sharp guy comment. I write how I write. Don't have a dictionary by my side; am I to be punished for turning a phrase? (Insert shrug and puzzled look.)
Royce, fair point on VFINX and the like. In no way did I intend to dispute the truth of that observation, that some passive vehicles have had excellent past performance. I just happen to agree with Larry Summers, that EMT is a remarkable error with a lot of interesting causes.
As to the outperformance of certain vehicles and measurements in US markets over the past hundred years, I would argue that is primarily tied to the shining performance of the 20th century US economy, which in turn is better explained by big picture historic / economic / cultural / geopolitical factors than an overgeneralized economic theory such as EMT. And while we can look back and see 30 years periods of "Woohoo!," let us not forget there are also multi-decade periods of "oh crap!" in which an active strategy (or even a sideline strategy) would have beat the pants off a passive one.
There are certain things about EMT that make sense and certain conclusions born of EMT that are wholly logical. But on balance, I think the whole exercise is so flawed that we would be better off salvaging what's good from EMT, scrapping the name, and calling it something else entirely. Or better yet, dispensing with the need for a grand theory of markets in the first place. Physics hasn't come up with a grand unified theory yet, and particles are nowhere near as messy as human interaction, so why should markets have one? I'm mostly against oversimplification I suppose.
Trader 75,
Jeremy Siegel of Wharton fame makes the same argument that the last 100 of years of performance can best be attributed to "big picture historic / economic / cultural / geopolitical factors." In his latest book, he makes some interesting (I use that word bc I find some of his logic hard to follow) arguments that the US business and stock market will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than the last 100 years. In short, he believes the growth in BRIC will allow the coming wave of baby boomer retirees to dump assets onto the Chinese and so forth as they look for investment vehicles for their impending wealth.
Interestingly, he has backed off of his "Stocks for the Long Run" call for investing exclusively in index funds. His new book "The Future for Investors" helped give birth to the Wisdom Tree methodology/thesis. He is arguing for passive strategies but against conventional EMT. Wisdom Tree's fundamental indexing follows his beliefs in dividend paying companies.
I am interested in peoples' thoughts on fundamental indexing in general and Wisdom Tree's products in particular. The theory is not far off from the previously mentioned DFA approach to investing.
Gents/Ladies–wish i could join this lively debate, but after a 30 minute thoughtful [or so I thought] piece i put together–I was "spammed" blocked by the sites [?new] software.
Wondering if others are having this problem? It's cool to call Kudlow a "drug addict" and other in sundry ad hominem posts I've see lately, I guess, but thoughtful essays are blocked…
I sent my piece directly to BR—so "what say ye" sir?
Hope it's a software glitch, otherwise, the value of this site/discourse, for me, decreases by an order of magnitude.
I'm curious ….
how has Barry's fund performed over the years ??!!??!!??!!??!!??!!??!!???
maybe that will point to his biases
BR I am precluded from publishing the performance data (its considered advertising) but if you go to this list, you can see the major calls over the past 5 years and extrapolate.
RB, to understand it better you really need to read someone like Malkiel rather than focus on how random walk theory is characterized here. The basic argument is statistical: it does not posit that the market is actually random but that stock prices can be successfully modeled as if it were. Nor does it posit that statistical outliers (outperformers) can not exist, only that there is no way to guarantee such performance can continue.
In its weak form it posits that the history of stock price movements contains no useful information that, on average, will enable an investor to consistently outperform a buy-and-hold strategy in managing a portfolio; e.g., a lot of folks thought Granville was the ace, then when he fell it was Precter, than Garzarelli, etc. so how, on average, would anyone know they found real talent in an advisor or had the talent themselves? It's a matter of statistical uncertainty — on average they can't and/or won't — but it's not a matter of impossibility even if some academicians appear to say so.
The strong form of the theory is quite beyond the pale of sensibility and even Malkiel mocks it a bit, offering the example of an economics professor who sees a ten dollar bill on the sidewalk and passes it by, saying to his students who are attentively trotting behind, "ignore that bill on the sidewalk because if it was really there someone would have already picked it up."
Our host has posted a number of comments from successful traders regarding what makes for success and many posters here are also successful and make knowledgeable comments in turn (sometimes casting aspersions on the comments previously posted – lol). Clearly long-term success is possible so what's really at issue?
Some years ago I did a study of the Pacific Stock exchange incorporating both quantitative and qualitative (ethnographic) techniques. Made some good acquaintances at the trading desks in the process and gained some insight into trading success that, boiled down to it's essentials (and with operational skill as an already given), could be described as (1) superb situational attention and (2) excellent money/risk management. Too much detail for a post but the bund trader who posted above gives some insight into the former quality.
The problem being that, according to the weak form of random walk, no investor on average can rely on any of that over the long term. I think Harry Browne says it better though (I paraphrase): Really successful investors are like exceptional athletes or exceptional people in any field, they have a talent, and exceptional talent by definition is not common or we wouldn't recognize it as such. Unless you (the individual investor) have clear evidence you possess comparable talent you had better learn how to diversify, manage costs, and trim the odds against you.
I agree that active management can work better in particular periods. And for the passive approach to work there has to be a huge number of active investors to form the market and price stocks. So active investing isn't going to fall out of fashion.
My beef was more with Barry's implication that the strategy was outright foolish.
well put RW–
'selection bias' is the operative statistical term and needs to be clearly understood by all who make money manager selection decisions [or choose not to...]. That, and 'regression to the mean', are arguably the most important 'concepts' for someone trying to manage their own money. And, in my opinion, need to be deeply understood.
I think you misunderstand the theory a bit. It suggests that few people will be able to beat the market. Not that no one will. As you widen your horizon, fewer people outperform.
Most of the basic models that I see people using are based on Markov processes and the like, which, IMHO, means that people still assume quite a bit of unknown randomness.
This has been a valued site in many ways, but the number of folks with what I call "guru-itis" is astounding. There are now over 8,000 hedge funds, not to mention thousands of other actively managed non-hedge vehicles, but 20 names are proof of the ability to confound the market? I have learned a lot from this site–specifically the piece on markets following p/e expansion and contraction not earnings as hugely enlightening. Thanks to BR. But I'm beginning to wonder how one can justify on the one hand telling everyone that forecasting is foolish, yet later tout the genius of those [few] who made millions doing it. After all, there's a one in a thousand chance of getting 10 heads or 10 tails in a row–if 10,000 people play the game, ya got your 10 guru's.[retrospectively of course--which is the point]
No, I'm not Taleb with a pseudo-pen name, but consider reading 'Fooled by Randomness" folks. Consider understanding in depth the two most important statistical factors at work in trading–selection bias and regression to the mean.
Yes, I called the real-estate bubble, emerging market bubble, and small cap bubble–but, alas also got out earlier than I should have to have created maximal profitability. Recognizing market imbalances actually isn't too difficult if you can control primal 'greed and fear' instincts, but that doesn't mean you can nail the top and bottom with any certainty. And when you add in fees, and most importantly taxes—a topic I have yet to see discussed here [namely 15% long term cap gain hit v. what I suspect is 40-50% marginal rate for many high income, high tax state folks here for short trades-- is huge], the value add of being active becomes harder. [abolish all profits on capital gains, and we might have a different game…]. Yet we aare here trying.
Lastly, in case there is a young PhD in economics candidate out there, what about developing and proving a 'Universal Field Theory of Efficient Markets"? Namely, perhaps that markets ARE truly efficient, but to BR and the other critics–perhaps what you are objecting to is that those theorists are not in fact measuring ALL the component variables. So, if one could accurately measure market fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, neuroeconomic decision making, macroeconomic/social- political volatility, one may actually be able to say the market is, in a sense efficient in that all data is being measured and reflected in a price instantaneously; –very different than saying that an individual may agree/disagree with that calculation. And, as far as I know, this is not capable of being done anyway—but may make a nice doctoral thesis though…
One last rant, as a [successful] dot.com entrepreneur that sold his company in 2001, one comment that people forget in the current rise to glory of Google et al. Guess what, the 'eye balls' metric that the VC's used to justify valuations in the 90's—which was first embraced [overly so with typical human greed], and then sneered at after the crash [also typically, due to human fear] was actually [news flash--heard it here first] right! It was, in fact, the correct metric to use—it took time and Google, [e.g. Google's adSense] among others to figure out a way to monetize the phenomena, and regression to the mean to bring growth prospects of Internet commerce in line with reality. MySpace just sold for $500M because it was able to draw 50M unique visitor in under a year, advertisers have an easy way to measure ROI for their investment, and online marketing works.
The facts are, the greatest way to amass great wealth quickly is to 1. inherit it [sadly, not my case--but probably screws a fellow up anyway...], or create a great company. Investing is key, but unless one is actually gambling, is a longer, slower process.
Thoughtful comments/responses encouraged–but please no flames. I tried [and it was my earnest goal] to be respectful to all. Just needed to respond to this trail.
Barry, you either don't understand Random Walk or are misrepresenting it. The theory states that some people will outperform. They're called "Expert Coin Tossers."
Index funds have only underperformed if you've been in the wrong index funds. Emerging markets, oil, broker dealer, transports, small caps, energy, metals, etc, have all outperformed as indices.
Trader75, how many iced venti mochas have you had today? You went on a rant proportional to mine. lol.
Btw, "Imagine if engineers were taught structural load theories that were 80% correct. How well would that work?"
They were. It's called the Big Dig in Boston. lol.
As to EMH, I understand it fine — I did skip a step when discussing it.
Yes, a truly random system (market) will produce outperformerers by chance.
Problem is that there is an excess of outperformers — people who put together investable theses that both correlate with their market/stock calls, and correspond on a causal basis to their theories.
Any data challenging a given theory can be derided as random coin tosses. I think it is incumbent on the EMHers to look at some of these outperformers to determine if their performance is a basis of luck or something else.
Merely yelling "LUCKY SHOT" is a school yard taunt; I need to see more than that before I buy into the EMH — weak or strong.
The way I see it, it's not so much an excess of outperformers as an excess of consistent outperformers. Dart-throwing monkeys will fall off a cliff at a certain rate; if you run some plausible numbers, you will see that the stars do fall off the cliff, but not at a high enough rate to make any sense at all.
In re: DFA, if they beat a large-cap index by 150bps without taking on any relative risk, I'd like to see that documented. In small-caps, I absolutely believe their methodology works.
My advice for generating alpha to those who don't get paid to do it directly is to index substantially all their money and to get a raise. When you're 65 this is bad advice, I grant, but I chat with my peer group, and at 30 or even 40 a 10% raise usually beats 100 bps of alpha, and that is indeed without taking any relative risk.
EMH requires 2 things: rational investors and a normal distribution.
(1) I think Barry pointed it out that Eugene Fama, the father of EMH, recenctly admitted that investors can be irrational at times. I think that there are too much human emotions, wrong decisions, etc. involve in the financial markets for investors to be rational.
(2) take a look at the price distribution of any market index. There's no way the normal distribution can best describe it – there are too many fat tails. A Cauchy distribution or a Stable Pareto Levy distribution best describe market action.
The implications of (2) is that the market does not conform to a random walk theory (just because it is precisely unpredictable doesn't mean it's random) and the short term time frame is 'predictable' while the long term is not. 'Predictable' in the sense of a weather forecast (not a bad analogy as both the markets and weather system are example of a nonlinear dynamical system): you can make a good prediction of the weather of the next 3 days, if you keep it rough enough, but not for 3 years away, 3 months or even 3 weeks out. Rough in the sense of something like this: A high pressure system is moving in, kicking out the rain of the last 2 days, expect highs in the '80s, etc. Not something like this: at 2:54pm EST, it will be 84F at the corner of Wall St. and Broadway. That is expecting too much.
You of all people should know that data sets always contain anomalies. Out of literally millions upon millions of data points you point to a handful that are near the higher end of the range. In stats, these points prove nothing. You must look at the entire set to prove your point. If you throw 1,000 darts and hit bulls eye 50 times it is not fair to say that you hit bulls eye 50 out of 50 times. These throws prove very little when looked at in the entire data set.
Money managers are the same. A small handful actually outperform a standard index fund over the very long term. This is even more true for hedge funds. I would die to see how some of those funds do when you back out taxes and fees. 25% for fees and 35% for taxes is why most hedge funds are a horrible investment.
This is not to say that outperforming the market is impossible. It just goes to show how extraordinarily difficult it is. Most people are better off saving themself the trouble.
The only people who can afford to suggest that you can trade without using TA are FTPFs (Fully Tenured Professors of Finance) because they cannot be fired. They can hypothesize all that they like, but In Real Life you might pick something based on fundamentals, but you would not enter or exit the trade without consulting the chart. Even at that, fundamental analysis is broken because of margin compression, so just go with the chart. How often have you heard some PR bunny say "We are going to have to restate the chart for the last 3 years, but it's okay?"
What I would really, really like is for the Wharton professors (even the ones who did not contribute to LTCMs downfall) to provide a daily advisory service. They could call it tell.com and those of us who actually make money in the market could use their alerts to go opposite. I'd pay $300 a year for that, no problem.
It's funny to hear so many traders trash EMT on hand and arbitrage on the other. Arbitrage only holds under EMT.
It's easy to run out the tired old LTCM example, but in doing so, one ignores the billions of dollars those guys made for 4 years. Their failure was a function of not understanding the principles of correlation under market panic. Russia defaulting on bonds did not equal a correlation of 1 in LTCMs models. That mistake sunk them. All they money they made previously was pure EMT at work.
If index returns are there for the taking, won't an efficient market guarantee that the outperformers' fees will be "bid up" to a level where net returns equal the index?
Maybe if we looked at net returns, the number of outperformers would be consistent with EMT … and we would be left with the nascent outperfomers who's fees have yet to reach "parity".
In other words, if "free money" can only come from new outperformance, maybe the distribution of returns is that which EMT predicts.
Or, maybe the fact that outperformers' fees are often bid up to a level resulting in below average net returns proves an inefficient market.
Oh, but I left out taxes …
Two points.
First, on Vanguard, specifically:
Vanguard's small cap fund, for example, has done better than 90% of managed funds in its category over the past 5 years, even though its manager does not use technical analysis and all the various tools you've mentioned
Yes they do. Vanguard, Barclays Global Investors and State Street are probably the biggest users of quantitative analysis (and certainly the biggest employers of quants for investment management) in the market.
The reason for this is that Vanguard et al do not, in fact, follow the strategy of buying and holding the entire index. They don't because this is a monstrously inefficient trading strategy for a firm that has to provide liquidity for inflows and outflows – the average position size is well below the optimum.
What index trackers do is to construct a portfolio which minimises tracking error. There are many such potential portfolios, and a considerable degree of skill goes into constructing the best one. Also, when constructing your tracking portfolio, you are always looking to give it an "alpha tilt" – a little bit of outperformance to help pay your management fee. Vanguard in particular are gods at achieving this.
What people need to realise is that there are good and bad trackers (some of the worst-managed tracker funds have performance that is nothing short of embarrassing) and if you are comparing active managers to Vanguard, you are comparing them to the Warren Buffet of trackers.
Second, on the coin-tossing issue:
This isn't a valid statistical argument. It is true that if you hold a coin-tossing tournament, somebody will win. But if you then hold a second coin-tossing tournament and the same guy wins, then have a look at his coin because this would be an extremely unlikely event under the assumption of a fair coin.
Buffet, Soros et al were identified as great investors at least twenty years ago. At that time, it might have made sense to call them "Lucky tossers". However, they have continued to maintain their performance records ever since then. The hypothesis of an unbiased coin has hardly any support at all.
I'm aware of how they put indexes together, and it was pretty obvious that I was talking about using TA as a stock picking tool. So why bother addressing an argument that was never made?
I dont' know if this thread is done, it's a pretty good one and a frequent topic of conversation. If there was only one person who consistently outperformed the market, then most people would agree it could be luck. If there were thousands most people would agree it would be skill. I've heard people use the term semi-strong EMT, which may be better. Trying to strickly apply EMT would be tough.
But, it also begs a lot of philosphical questions in defining alpha itself. If you say you outperformed the market, then what market are you talking about? If you were in US stocks while the market in Finland went up 40% or out of NASDAQ when it went up 30% (or whatever high %'s it was hitting), did you underperform? Time horizon and asset base is very tricky and the framing is difficult.
I think the economist did a little piece once showing how much money you would have if you just put $1 into the best market each year world wide over the last 100 years. You would buy Jan 1 and sell Dec 31. The result was something huge, I think they said more than all total world assets.
I'm aware of how they put indexes together, and it was pretty obvious that I was talking about using TA as a stock picking tool. So why bother addressing an argument that was never made?
Because you said that Vanguard doesn't pick stocks or use technical analysis and they do. In fact, they use algorithmic technical analysis; "trading systems", the very most reviled area of TA in the academic literature.
"Because you said that Vanguard doesn't pick stocks or use technical analysis and they do."
Their goal is to model the index involved, not identify which stocks will outperform other ones or predict the movements of markets using technical analysis. So they use TA in their model. So what? You're bringing up an irrelevant detail on an issue nobody is discussing.
Outperforming fund managers
Speaking of intellectual error — "These outperformers include many technical and quantitative driven strategies." The "outperformers" you listed were people, not strategies. It does not necessarily follow that the strategy used by the investor is the ultimate source of the investors success. Trade75 argues that real investing skill is rare (backing the claim with pure twaddle – "it's because the public won't tolerate excellence like mine!" – please) is consistent with trading success not being well understood. It is no accident that techies mock fundies and quants mock both. Each group, wrapped in the normal human urges for affiliation and control, claims that it is the trading theory practiced by members of the group that account for their excellence. Iconoclasts (whose affiliation is with other iconoclasts) claim that they use a bit of this and a bit of that, but still claim that they have "knowledge" which they may not, in fact, have. If all this stuff works, some of the time for some people but not all of the time for anybody, then still we don't know what works.
Mighty cheeky to crow over Malkiel and Bainbridge committing supposed intellectual lapses and waving around behavioral economics as evidence, in the midst of one's own intellectual lapse, based on some common forms of irrationality.
Outperforming fund managers
Outperforming fund managers
Random Walk And Outperforming Fund Managers
Barry Ritholtz discusses technical analysis and efficient markets.
So they use TA in their model. So what? You're bringing up an irrelevant detail on an issue nobody is discussing
If the fact that they do is "an irrelevant detail", then why did you, in your original comment, think it was so important to say that they didn't?
The quantitative strategies used at Vanguard and other trackers have two objectives; to minimise tracking error, and to generate alpha. "Generating alpha" is done by picking those stocks which will outperform the others.
I have just read the post and the comments. While I share some of the views, for example that one should use TA and other tools with economic theory to pick stocks, I find myself in much disagreement on the way the Efficient market hypothesis, especially in its weak form, is treated.
I have written a Blog that explains the EMH, what it says, and what it does not say, and relate it to the article and comments here.


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November 30, 2015
Dothan Police are investigating a bank burglary, but apparently, the suspects left empty-handed.
Between closing Friday and opening Monday, someone cut a hole in the roof of the Compass Bank at the corner of Ross Clark Circle and Montgomery Highway.
The suspects dropped down into a storage room and apparently gained access to the rest of the building, but nothing was taken.
Police say similar crimes have been committed at banks and drug stores across the Southeast in recent months.
They are still trying to pinpoint exactly when this one happened.
The FBI is assisting in the investigation.
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Sushant Singh Rajput, Ankita Lokhande, Nishant Bhat
Sushant Singh Rajput, Ankita Lokhande, Nishant Bhat
Courtesy: Ankita Lokhande
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Celebrity : Sushant Singh Rajput , Ankita Lokhande
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Ankita is looking so much cute.
love this pic of sush n anki...
they both look sooo cute:*
awww hw cute sushant and ankita d true love birds
so sweettt...love Sushita...always b happpy...
keep smiling sushant and ankita. love both of u
awww my Sushita looking shoo cuteee..!!
lovely picture and lovely smiles ankita and sushant
Wowww Sushant & Ankita luking too cute here...hayeee Sushant's smile
Edited on:18 May 2012 at 7:37am


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ShareThis, a sharing network that eases the task of sharing online content across various networks. Users can make use of the universal sharing widget to share anything they like on the web with friends on MySpace, Facebook, Digg, etc. Today the ShareThis team launched the beta of their new widget with numerous useful features including:
ShareBox v.2.0 lets save content directly to their ShareBox through a link in the widget.
Contact Manager lets users import access contact names and email addresses directly to the widget from the largest webmail providers using its new contact manager.
Smarter Widget automatically displays the last three email addresses used.
Apart from that, ShareThis' web page was revamped as well. And I really find it easier to navigate across the page along with more functionality.


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Tuesday, August 28, 2012
© Copyright 2015 Albany Herald
LEESBURG, Ga. — Lee County Commissioners have come to an agreement on how the county will divide Local Option Sales Tax Revenue — a decision that a couple of commissioners believe will prevent the breakup of Smithville as a municipality.
Commissioners voted 3-1 to give Lee County 81 percent of the sales tax revenue during the next 10 years, while giving Leesburg 13 percent and Smithville 6 percent.
The agreement came after sparring between Commission Vice Chairman Rick Muggridge and District 1 Commissioner Dennis Roland, whose district includes both Leesburg and Smithville.
Muggridge opposed the sales tax plan, contending the split should more closely mirror population. He said he opposed giving Smithville 6 percent "not because I am mean, but because it is unfair."
"They represent less than 2 percent of the population, but will get 6 percent of the LOST revenue," Muggridge said. He initially asked the commission to consider a split of 81 for the county, 15 percent for Leesburg and 4 percent for Smithville.
Muggridge later agreed to adjust that to 14 percent for Leesburg and 5 percent for Smithville. He was unable to get either of the amendments seconded.
"The vitality of a community is not based on having a city government," Muggridge said.
A negotiating committee of the county commissioners and officials with Leesburg and Smithville met previously, resulting in the recommended split of 81-13-6.
Chairman Ed Duffy admitted that much of Muggridge's argument was sound if based solely on using a population guide for the division.
However, Duffy said the county government could wind up spending more than the extra $110,000 it is granting Smithville if the county had to assume responsibility for water and sewer, public works and public safety for Smithville residents.
"We gave them more than they were entitled to, but we did this out of a spirit of cooperation," Duffy said.
Roland said many things involving taxation are not fair.
"I see many people in this room who pay outrageous taxes, but do not have adequate services, but they pay for Mr. Muggridge's district to have those things," Roland said.
"We live in a nation of compassionate people,' Roland said. "I don't know when Smithville was chartered, but I certainly do not want to be the one who was going to take away its charter."
"This is not my money," Muggridge countered. "This is for the people of Lee County and I don't have the right to be compassionate with their money."
Roland made the motion for the 81-13-6 split and was seconded by Commissioner Bill Williams and supported by Commmissioner Betty Johnson.
The agreement reached Tuesday has to be signed by Leesburg and Smithville officials and forwarded to the State Department of Revenue within 15 days.
More like this story
- Lee reaches LOST split settlement ( August 20, 2012 )
- Lee LOST committee meets to discuss tax ( July 8, 2012 )
- Lee officials discuss LOST distribution ( June 29, 2012 )
- Lee LOST negotiations leaving 'bruised feelings' ( July 23, 2012 )
- Lee committee no closer to compromise ( July 9, 2012 )


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Dan Kempten wrote:I began with the 2nd one, Glassfish EE. It has the Derby database aboard and that's enough to start with.
If you don't have JDK already installed in your system then the 3rd one is what you need.
At least Java 5.
I've been through a bit with J2EE EJBs, in my entry an hour ago I wrote about using Netbeans as an IDE and
making session and entity beans work. That might help.
And get a good book and learn the words, persistence, mapped, clean, deploy, and such.
Good luck.
Bear Bibeault wrote:Why not just grab Tomcat and focus on Servlets and JSP until you have a working knowledge of those?
You can skip all the EJB stuff until (if ever) you need it.


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The Spring Valley City Bank started operations in 1902 as a private bank under the ownership of two wealthy landowners named Norris and Kendall, who lived in the Princeton-Malden area.
A .R. Greenwood, an attorney then living in Spring Valley, became the Manager and
Charles W. Knapp was his assistant.
In 1905 The Spring Valley National Bank, popularly known as the "Devlin Bank" ceased, and on November 1, 1905 the present Spring Valley City Bank was organized as a corporation under the banking laws of the State of Illinois with capital of $50,000.00.
W. B. Hummer of LaSalle, father of Wayne Hummer a broker in Chicago, but also a resident of LaSalle, became the principal organizer, and he was assisted by Charles W. Knapp.
The original stockholders who subscribed to the Bank Capital of $50,000 were as follows:
W. B. Hummer, Charles W. Knapp, J.C. Sitterly, E. M. Baysoar, V.J. Reinke, Charles Fehr, I.L. Steinberg, L.S. Blachly, J.F. Kimber, Leo Gluck, George L. Hoffman, Fred Guenther, Samuel Bernstein, Barney Ernat, James O'Connor, George A. Wheeler, Mabel L. Norton, C.N. Hollerich, Edward McCabe, I.J. Jagodzinski and William MacDonald.
At the first stockholders meeting, the following were elected Directors of the Bank:
W. B. Hummer, Charles W. Knapp,J. C. Sitterly, E. M. Baysoar, Charles Fehr, L. S. Blachly, George L. Hoffman, George A. Wheeler, I.J. Jagodzinski.
The Directors then appointed as officers: W. B. Hummer, President, I.J. Jagodzinski, Vice President, Charles W. Knapp, Cashier.
The first employees other than officers were Anna H. Knapp, Bookkeeper, Ben Fowler, Clerk and Joe Saunders, Janitor.
W. B. Hummer died on May 16, 1908 and J. C. Sitterly was appointed President. Wayne Hummer was also elected Director to fill the vacancy caused by his father's death. Later Charles W. Knapp, Roy W. Brown, Peter Hollerich, Roderick J. Luther, Philip T. Mc Ginnis, Gordon J. Virgo, David W. Kromphardt and current president Matthew E. Merboth each succeeded to the Presidency.
History has proven the Luther lineage to have one of the strongest impacts on Spring Valley City Bank. This all started with L. H. (Hick) Luther. L. H. Luther worked his way up the ranks to eventually become Chairman of the Board on January 13, 1959. His son Roderick Luther later became President and Chairman of the Board and his granddaughter Rorie Luther Schweickert is now the only female member of the Board of Directors.
A few of our senior citizens may remember back on April 15, 1932 the Spring Valley City Bank was raided by professional gunman. The bank was robbed by four armed bandits. In the bank at the time were; Peter Hollerich, the cashier; L. H. Luther, assistant cashier; Bank employees Lloyd Pierson, Mrs. Andrew Savio and Miss Madelon Mahoney; and two customers, Miss Mary Abraham and an unidentified Spring Valley man. The four men joined the getaway driver waiting outside in a Buick and drove east down St. Paul St. Several police agencies joined the Spring Valley Police in the early phases of the manhunt. A statewide search ensued, with a $1,000 reward being offered for the capture and prosecution of the criminals. Within three weeks two of the criminals, William Hertig and Pat Thomas, who were involved in another robbery and kidnapping attempt in Taylorville, were apprehended. Luther positively identified the two, but they never returned to Bureau County, as they were prosecuted in southern Illinois. A third robber, William Hoefield, alias "Bill Sullivan", was also apprehended due to his involvement in another crime and was identified by Thomas a fellow suspect.
Philip T. McGinnis a former President and Chairman of the Board remembered a banking day in April of 1976 when Steinberg's Furniture store, which was contiguous to the bank's building, burned to the ground, with flames billowing halfway into St. Paul Street. The Bank's building at this time was located on the corner of St. Paul and Greenwood Streets. That evening bank personnel scrubbed the floors and all of the furnishings which were covered in soot. The Bank opened for business as usual on the next morning. At the time of the fire, the new Bank which is now located at 315 N. Cornelia St. Spring Valley was already under construction.
Gordon J. Virgo was also a past President and Chairman of the Board. His first day of employment by the bank was the day after the fire. He credits the board of directors for having great insight on picking a valuable location (which formerly housed Walker's Gas Station) that he believes has contributed to the bank's growth in attracting a strong customer base not only from Spring Valley but areas to the East as well. The bank's current and only location sits on the corner of Cornelia Street and Route 6.
After the new building was constructed, a very memorable day for many Spring Valley residents was the day the cash vault and safety deposit boxes were transported via tow motor down St. Paul St. and up Cornelia St. to the bank's new location. They were escorted by Spring Valley Police and Illinois State Troopers.
As the Bank's deposits grew rapidly, the Bank quickly outgrew the original building. In the late 1980's the board of directors passed a motion to expand the building doubling its square footage. Employees began to utilize the addition in 1989. Now over 20 years later this building sits beautifully landscaped, as its doors swing open for business to serve thousands of residents in the Illinois Valley and beyond. The Bank has retired two employees with over 50 years of service. The current staff has over 15 employees with 20 years of service, eight of those with over 30 years and three of those with over 40 years. Many believe the bank's employee longevity has also contributed to its success, as the Bank strives to build lasting relationships with all of its customers.
Phil felt we would be remiss without mentioning several dedicated long time employees of the bank including Cecilia McCook who is now deceased. She was employed by the bank for over 50 years and served as bank secretary under five of the bank presidents. Patricia Pirch, Asst. Vice President was also employed by the bank for over 50 years starting in high school until retiring a few years ago. Pat served in several capacities with her final assignment being in charge of opening new accounts. Fellow officers most, vivid memory of Pat include her sharing tears with her customers over the loss of their loved one. This Bank is, and always has been known for providing excellent customer service, and this reputation was built from the compassion it shares with customers.
One of the earliest reports of bank operations revealed as of November 10, 1905:
Deposits were $70,044.77 and Loans were $51,088.24. Today Spring Valley City Bank remains an independent community bank with assets in excess of $194 million. Spring Valley City Bank takes great pride in the safe and sound reputation it has achieved. It continues to grow in these tough economic times. A measure of its strength is evidenced by its superior rating from Bauer Financial for 88 consecutive quarters. This information graphically reveals the growth and security of the institution along with the economic well-being of Spring Valley and its surrounding area.
© 2012 Spring Valley City Bank. All Rights Reserved.
315 North Cornelia Street | Spring Valley, IL 61362 | 815-663-2211
Lobby: Mon-Fri 8:30am -5:00pm Sat 8:30am-12:00pm
Drive-up: Mon-Thurs 7:30am-5:00pm Fri 7:30am-6:00pm Sat 7:30am-12:00pm


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You might have seen orange-vested minions armed with trash bags, shovels, and paintbrushes around the village Sunday.
"I got left behind without any trash bags," said Rotarian Clayton Alred, also president at Eastern New Mexico University-Ruidoso as he worked his way up from the mouth of Paradise Canyon. "But a couple of guys building a garden were happy to loan me a few."
Rodney Griego, executive director of this year's Keep Ruidoso Beatiful program, was a little skeptical about the weather. Volunteers began showing up at 12:30 p.m.
"We expect them to keep coming in until around 1:15 p.m.," Griego said.
Besides picking up litter, middle school MESA (Math, Engineering, and Science Achievements) and other volunteers were planting flowers in front of the village swimming pool building.
The cub and boy scouts were working on the youth garden at the Village Parks and Recreation office. Six volunteers already had started at the far end of Gavilan Canyon, and 11 in Paradise. In addition to national sponsors involved with Keep America Beautiful, local businesses stepped up. Cannon Tires, Seasons Nursery, Western Auto, Thriftway and Walmart were among them.
"A lot of people have pitched in to help," Griego said.
It's all part of a nation-wide campaign through the month of April. Some 30,000 communities across the nation host the event. Hours are logged as part of the national reporting. Sections including Gavilan, Paradise, and Carrizo canyons, Highway. 70, Resort Drive, and Hull Road were scavenged for litter.
T-shirts, gloves, safety vests, and trash bags were issued to volunteers. Workers were sent out to areas to work up until two hours. Then, everyone was brought back for a dinner and prizes provided by local sponsors. The Keep Ruidoso Beautiful program has been around for 12 years.
"We also do projects with youth and school groups interested in fund raising," Griego said.
These are programs funded by the state.
"We track their service hours and give them a monetary donation for their efforts."
The Boys and Girls Club, Foot of the Cross Christian Ministries youth group, RHS Senior Class and the softball team are some of the groups that have taken advantage of those service opportunities. Ladies from the Optimist and Lions clubs, and RSVP (Retired and Senior Volunteer Program) were busy with registration. "T-bone" Tetreault, the parks department foreman, was seated next to them, sending groups on their way to designated areas.
"Without the volunteers, parks department, and the solid waste department's involvement with Keep Ruidoso Beautiful, it wouldn't be in existence," Griego said.
Solid Waste Director Jeffrey Kaplan is a staff liaison to the Keep Ruidoso Beautiful Committee.
"He also does the cooking," Griego said.