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tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-197274202015-10-07T04:11:57.053-07:00IdeasWhatever I feel like talking about.David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-74058636716327363852015-10-05T12:09:00.000-07:002015-10-05T12:13:03.372-07:00Some LinksThe Truth About Ancient Greece

If you happen to be Jewish and press the wrong button on the time machine.

18) The Michelson-Morley and Sagnac experiments attempted to measure the change in speed of light due to Earth's assumed motion through space. After measuring in every possible different direction in various locations they failed to detect any significant change whatsoever, again proving the stationary geocentric model.

(from a list of 200 proofs of the geocentric model of the universe)

A detailed critique of recycling.

David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-69573725085546011172015-10-04T21:09:00.001-07:002015-10-04T21:15:14.998-07:00How Not to Defend Islam
In a recent piece on Salon Qasim Rashid, described as "the national spokesperson for the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community USA and Visiting Fellow at Harvard University's Prince al-Waleed bin Talal School of Islamic Studies," takes Ben Carson to task for "absurd lies" about Islam. Some of Carson's claims about Islam may well be false—it is not true, for instance, that "Under Shariah law ... people following other religions must be killed." Most Americans do not know much about other religions; there is no reason to expect Carson to be an exception.

Rashid, who surely is well informed, writes:

Islam gave women equal rights in 610 that our own United States haven't given even in 2015. To this day America has not passed the Equal Rights Amendment. Meanwhile the Quran 33:36 emphatically declares the equality of men and women:

"Surely, men who submit themselves to God and women who submit themselves to Him…God has prepared for all of them forgiveness and a great reward."

God may treat men and women equally but Islamic law, fiqh, does not. A daughter under Islamic law receives half the inheritance of a son—a rule directly from the Quran. A man is permitted to marry up to four wives, a woman one husband. A man may freely divorce his wife, a woman is not free to divorce her husband. Each spouse has rights to sexual intercourse with the other, but the rights are not the same.

In truth, the Qur'an only permits fighting in self-defense, or to protect "churches, synagogues, temples, and mosques" from attack. Prophet Muhammad issued numerous charters with Christians, Jews, and pagans to affirm his commitment to universal religious freedom and equal human rights for all people regardless of faith.

Mohammed attacked and destroyed the Jewish villages near Medina. In one case, after the village surrendered, all of the male inhabitants were killed at his orders. He fought a long war with the Quaraysh, his fellow tribesmen in Mecca, which ended only when they surrendered and converted.

When Islam began, the two great powers of that part of the world were the Persian Sassanid empire and the Byzantine empire. In the course of the first century after Mohammed's death his followers conquered all of the first and a large chunk of the second, one of the more impressive accomplishments of human history. It was not done by fighting in self defense.

Under Islamic law, the other peoples of the book—Christians, Jews and (probably) Sabeans—were permitted to live under Islamic rule. But they did not have "equal human rights." A Muslim man could marry a Christian or Jewish woman, a Christian or Jewish man could not marry a Muslim woman. Christians and Jews were required to pay a special tax, the jizya.

According to the Shafi'i school of law, the indemnity for killing a woman is half that for killing a man, the indemnity for killing a Jew or a Christian is one third that for killing a Muslim, the indemnity paid for a Zoroastrian is one fifteenth that of a Muslim (The Reliance of the Traveler o 4.9). Details vary among the four schools.

Rashid never mentions that the Ahmadiyya Muslim community for which he is the spokesman is a heterodox offshoot of orthodox Islam originating in India in the late 19th century, one that regards its founder, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad, as the Messiah. For all I know his claims are true about current Ahmadiyya doctrine. But presenting them as doctrines of Islam without qualification, when his sect represents about one percent of the total Islamic population, is roughly equivalent to a Mormon presenting Mormon doctrine as Christianity without qualification or explanation to an audience unfamiliar with Christianity.

And, while his sect is free to choose its own legal rules, it is not free to change the historical facts to suit.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-74039303951835174552015-09-28T13:09:00.002-07:002015-09-28T13:09:43.565-07:00How to Lie With Statistics Updated
How to Lie With Statistics is an old and good book on how not to be fooled by statistical tricks. I just came across one that, so far as I can remember (I read the book a long time ago) was not not included.

Someone commenting on a Facebook global warming post put up this graph. Two comments later he wrote "Notice a trend?"

The trick, of course, is that the years are arranged in order of how hot they were. 2014 is at the right end not because it is the most recent year but because it was the hottest. 2012 is at the left end because it was the coolest of the years shown. Arranging them that way guarantees the appearance of a rising trend, whether temperatures are actually going up or down.

I am not certain that the person who put it up intended to imply that it showed a trend. He may have only meant that 2014 was hot and 2015 expected to be hot, as mentioned in his comment immediately after he put up the graph. But my guess is that either he had been fooled by the trick of drawing the graph that way or else he was deliberately trying to fool others.

I commented on it in the thread and will be interested to see his response.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-44012272937484369062015-09-26T21:06:00.002-07:002015-09-27T00:08:28.417-07:00Hillary, Crichton, O'Rourke, Coulter and GKC
Scott on Slate Star Codex sometimes posts a collection of links with brief comments. I thought I would try it.

———

According to Bloomberg, the FBI has succeeded in recovering some of the emails on the server that was supposedly wiped before handing it over to them. The reason this is a news story is that it might provide evidence against Hilary, emails that should have been turned over and were not because they contained information she did not want to get out. But whatever is on the server, the fact that the FBI was able to recover it is relevant to Hilary's qualifications to be president. Anyone living in the modern world and using computers should know that erasing a disk does not guarantee that the contents cannot be recovered. Even if she does not know much about computer technology, she ought to have people working for her who do. If she does not, that is evidence of incompetence, not in wiping a hard drive but in hiring and managing subordinates—a large part of a president's job.

———

Aliens Cause Global Warming is an essay by Michael Crichton on the way in which he believes that science has become corrupted in recent decades. The obvious application is to current climate controversies but the more general problem is what he views as a shift of the enterprise from the search for truth to a way of convincing people of things you want them to believe. His best example is probably the Nuclear Winter campaign:

The first announcement of nuclear winter appeared in an article by Sagan in the Sunday supplement, Parade. The very next day, a highly-publicized, high-profile conference on the long-term consequences of nuclear war was held in Washington, chaired by Carl Sagan and Paul Ehrlich, the most famous and media-savvy scientists of their generation. Sagan appeared on the Johnny Carson show 40 times. Ehrlich was on 25 times. Following the conference, there were press conferences, meetings with congressmen, and so on. The formal papers in Science came months later.

This is not the way science is done, it is the way products are sold.

Part of the reason I agree with his point was an article I read at the time, written by one of the teams whose work fed into the nuclear winter conclusion. They conceded that a criticism that had been offered of their work was correct, concluded that fixing the error would reduce the length of nuclear winter from years to weeks. But they also found another mistake in their initial work with the opposite effect. Fixing that got it back to years.

There is nothing surprising or disturbing about the fact that published scientific articles sometimes have mistakes. I am currently in the middle of redoing an old project, my research on Icelandic law, and have concluded that at least some details in what I published more than thirty years ago were wrong. But there is a problem with proclaiming something as scientific fact before other people have had a chance to look at your research and critique it.

One interesting thing about that particular case is that it might be defended as a case of justified dishonesty. I can imagine a reasonable person deliberately misrepresenting the evidence, claiming it was much stronger than he believed it actually was, on the grounds that almost anything that reduced the risk of nuclear war, honest or dishonest, was worth doing. The counter-argument is implicit in Crichton's essay—that treating science in that way converts it from a mechanism for determining truth to a tool of partisan debate, with very bad long-term results.

———

A recent piece by P.J. O'Rourke takes Ann Coulter to task for tweeting during the September 16th debate:

Cruz, Huckabee Rubio all mentioned ISRAEL in their response to: "What will AMERICA look like after you are president."

How many f—ing Jews do these people think there are in the United States?

I am no fan of Coulter and enjoyed the essay, but with two reservations. The first has to do with the tweets. The reference to "f—ing Jews" is not about ethnicity. The implied point was that candidates focus on support for Israel to attract support from Jewish voters, and there aren't enough Jewish voters to make it worth doing. It is abrasively put, but it implies nothing about her view of Jews other than their numbers.

The point is, however, wrong—not because there are a lot of Jewish votes but because winning Jewish votes is not the reason the candidates talk about Israel. American conservatives are mostly pro-Israel for reasons that have nothing to do with their view of Jews, just as the American left is mostly anti-Israel for similar reasons. Republican candidates are trying to appeal to conservative voters; trumpeting their support for Israel is one way of doing so.

My other reservation had to do with O'Rourke's reference to Chesterton's essay "The Problem of Zionism," which implied that it was antisemitic. While it is possible to excerpt passages that sound antisemitic, it is also possible, perhaps easier, to find ones that make Chesterton sound like a Zionist. For instance:

"It is our whole complaint against the Jew that he does not till the soil or toil with the spade; it is very hard on him to refuse him if he really says, 'Give me a soil and I will till it; give me a spade and I will use it.' It is our whole reason for distrusting him thathe cannot really love any of the lands in which he wanders; it seemsrather indefensible to be deaf to him if he really says, 'Give me a land and I will love it.'"

For a more detailed discussion and defense of Chesterton, see the chapter on him in the second edition of my Machinery of Freedom.

———

Question: Would readers prefer it if I had posted this as three short posts instead of one long one?

David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-78844185609956799362015-09-26T18:23:00.004-07:002015-09-26T21:21:44.119-07:00CAGW and Consensus
Some years ago, Richard Tol published an article in the Journal of Economic Perspectives that pooled the work of everyone in the field to produce estimates of the net effect of various levels of warming, measured relative to pre-industrial temperatures. It included a graph showing estimated net cost, with an error range. The green lines show his results after correcting some errors in the original paper.

The solid green line shows the estimate. It is positive up to about two degrees, negative thereafter. The dashed lines are the boundaries of the 95% range. The high end (optimistic) does not go negative until 3°C.

What about the low end? At 3°C, the welfare impact is a reduction of 10%. The IPCC high emissions scenario, RCP8.5, which gets us to that temperature sometime in the second half of the century, assumes continued economic growth. If so, the 10% reduction in welfare due to AGW will be combined with an increase several times that large.

My previous post discussed an article in the Journal of the National Academy of Sciences which criticized the IPCC models and concluded that warming due to AGW had been reasonably stable for the past century at a little less than one degree/century. If that continues, by 2100 global temperature will be less than two degrees above its preindustrial level. On Tol's estimate, we will be better off than if there had been no AGW, worse off than if AGW had been a little slower.

If, on the other hand, we accept RCP8.5, when we reach the 3° mark we will be worse off than if warming had not occurred, better off than we are now—even if we take the low end of Tol's predicted range of effects.

Which I think is an adequate response to people who tell me that to deny catastrophic effects of warming is to ignore the scientific consensus.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-71636010445288500232015-09-25T18:09:00.004-07:002015-09-25T18:19:43.062-07:00Modafinal, Steroids, and Competition
A recent discussion of a post on my favorite blog dealt with the implications of smart drugs, in particular modafinil. A number of people argued that the problem with permitting such things was competition. If one person uses them, others have to use them in order to compete with him, so you end up with whatever negative side effects the drugs have—modafinil does not seem to have many, but nobody knows for sure—and everyone in the same position as before.

That argument views economic competition as something like a football game, where one side wins and the other side loses—if you are not the best you are nothing. If that were true, most of the population of the world would be unemployed. Even without smart drugs, people vary in how able they are—they cannot all be the best.

Suppose the use of modafinal makes me 10% better at whatever I do. The result is not that someone with the same abilities who does not take it is useless, merely that I am ten percent more useful and so can expect an income about ten percent higher, whether my salary as an employee or my earnings if I am self-employed. I can decide for myself whether the additional income, or the additional leisure if I choose to work fewer hours instead of making more money, is worth whatever I think the risks of side effects are. If many people use smart drugs, some of the benefit might to go to other people either as lower prices for what the more productive workers produce or higher returns on other inputs to production. But somebody still gets the benefit of the additional productivity.

The source of the mistaken intuition is probably the analogous case of steroids in sports. There the right answer is less clear, depending on what it is that athletes produce. If what the fans care about is only relative ability, whether or not their team can beat the other team, then if everyone uses steroids the players are worse off—assuming significant negative side effects—and the fans no better off. If fans value absolute quality, enjoy watching athletes more the better they are, then the argument I have offered applies to that case as well.

Not being a sports fan, I cannot offer an informed opinion on which is the case.

The same confusion between economic competition and sports competition shows up in one of George Orwell's mistakes. In a very interesting joint review of The Road to Serfdom and a book by Konni Zilliacus, a left wing Labor politician, he wrote:

The trouble with competitions is that somebody wins them. Professor Hayek denies that free capitalism necessarily leads to monopoly, but in practice that is where it has led ...

Which, fortunately, is not true.

[An earlier discussion of the same issues, not in the context of smart drugs]
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-35670837362344825232015-09-20T19:16:00.000-07:002015-09-20T22:46:02.317-07:00An Explanation for the Pattern of Warming
I have been arguing for some time that what the pattern of global warming suggests is a rising trend due to AGW with an alternating trend from some other cause superimposed on it, the latter having a period of about sixty years. On that interpretation, the period of stable to slightly falling temperatures from about 1940 to 1970 and the period of roughly stable temperatures from 2002 on represent periods when the two trends were pushing in opposite directions and so roughly canceling each other, the rapid warming from about 1910 to 1940 and 1970 to 2002 periods when they were reinforcing each other.

The conventional explanation for the mid-century pause is that it was due to aerosols producing a temporary cooling effect. That became less plausible, at least to me, when the pause reappeared, roughly on schedule. If I am correct, the IPCC models, by special casing the earlier pause instead of treating it as part of a recurring pattern, overestimated the average rate of warming, treating periods when the two trends reinforced as if they were the norm, the period when they canceled as a special case.

I have now come across an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that supports my interpretation of the pattern, based on analysis of the 353 year Central England Temperature Series, the longest instrumental temperature record that exists. The authors conclude that there is a recurrent multidecadal oscillation with a period of about seventy years, likely due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. They reject the aerosol explanation and conclude that:

The underlying net anthropogenic warming rate in the industrial era is found to have been steady since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade, with superimposed AMO-related ups and downs that included the early 20th century warming, the cooling of the 1960s and 1970s, the accelerated warming of the 1980s and 1990s, and the recent slowing of the warming rates.

Almost precisely my conjecture—I slightly underestimated the period of the oscillation—with an explanation and a lot more data.

David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-27082004110158360342015-09-18T15:53:00.001-07:002015-09-18T16:17:59.692-07:00If Obama is a Muslim, He is a Very Bad One
Various people, including Donald Trump, have suggested that Obama was not born in the U.S. and may be a Muslim. The former claim, while it may be false, is not absurd—there is no obvious way of being certain of the details of the birth more than fifty years ago of someone of no particular prominence. The claim he is a Muslim, on the other hand, has at least two serious problems.

One of the binding obligations of Islam is to pray five times a day, in a specified manner (with some possible variations), at specified times. If Obama has managed to do that through most of two terms without anyone noticing, he is a very talented man. A second binding obligation is to fast through the month of Ramadan—neither eat nor drink in daylight hours.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-36531144762655795732015-09-17T23:25:00.001-07:002015-09-19T16:31:05.180-07:00Did Ahmed Make a Clock?

Speaking at an afternoon news conference outside the family's home, Ahmed's father said he's proud of his son and wowed by his skills.

"He fixed my phone, my car, my computer," Mohamed Elhassan Mohamed said. "He is a very smart, brilliant kid."

Public discussion of the case centers on whether or not the school and the police unreasonably over reacted. As best I can tell the answer is that they did. But what interests me is an entirely different question. A central feature of the story is how talented Ahmed is, a fourteen year old engineering marvel. That makes it a better story, better for the news media and better for Ahmed. But is it true?

One commenter on a blog I read, looking at the picture of what he brought into school, concluded that what it was was an old clock the innards of which Ahmed had taken out of its case and transferred to a briefcase. I do not know enough about electronics to offer an intelligent guess as to whether he was right, but it seems plausible enough—and well within the ability of a fourteen year old.

If so, this is not only about school officials over reacting. It's also about the willingness of the media to tell a good story without any serious effort to find out if it is true.

P.S. A fairly detailed analysis of what the clock was:

http://blogs.artvoice.com/techvoice/2015/09/17/reverse-engineering-ahmed-mohameds-clock-and-ourselves/
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-92149896291711160982015-09-14T17:45:00.001-07:002015-09-14T17:45:42.880-07:00President Carson
My preferred candidates are Rand Paul for the Republican party and Gary Johnson for the Libertarian Party, but the candidate I find most interesting at the moment is Ben Carson. I do not think he is likely to get nominated, let alone elected. But if he did end up in the White House, what kind of a job would he do?

He is intelligent and likable, both useful assets, but he has no experience at anything close to the job he is running for. There have been Presidents before with a background outside of politics, such as Grant and Eisenhower, but both were generals, men who had successfully run large organizations. Have there been any Presidents like Carson, successful men whose success did not involve either politics or administration? None occur to me—but it is not a subject I know much about. Perhaps one of my readers can offer an example.

The job of president is, long has been, too big for one man, so the question will be how good he is at building and running a team. Can he select competent subordinates, coordinate them, evaluate the advice they give him? Judging by my one first hand experience of neurosurgery, that too is a team job. But I have no idea whether Carson as surgeon was the creator and leader of a team or merely its star member.

If he does make it, it should be interesting.

David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-48132761300306938222015-09-13T15:16:00.000-07:002015-09-13T15:17:53.098-07:00The Author as Sponge
A correspondent recently emailed me links to a couple of YouTube videos from a firm that trains people in the use of modern weaponry, with the suggestion that it might be more relevant to the discussion of how a stateless society could defend against states than the example of paintball that I offer in a chapter in the new edition of The Machinery of Freedom. The first video included a discussion of a technical point new to me, the distinction between open bolt and closed bolt firearms.

After the video finished, I went downstairs to tell my younger son about it. Bill is unlikely to ever have any use for an open bolt, or even a closed bolt, firearm. He is, however, a would-be novelist, I think likely to be a good one, and almost any information is potentially useful in that profession—which is the point of the title of this post.

For instance ...

Most modern firearms are closed bolt. When the gun is ready to be fired the bolt is closed, holding the cartridge firmly in place. Pulling the trigger releases the firing pin, which strikes the primer, which fires the gun.

In the less common open bolt design, the firing pin is a fixed part of the bolt, not a piece free to move within it. When the gun is ready to fire, the bolt is open, pulled back. Pulling the trigger releases the bolt, which slides forward, closing the breach and driving the firing pin into the primer.

That works fine, provided you are standing still. But with the bolt open, there is nothing holding the cartridge in place. If you are running around with the weapon ready to fire—not a problem with the closed bolt weapons you are used to—the cartridge can come loose, either falling out entirely or jamming the mechanism that is supposed to fire it.

That is what happens in the video to a trainee using a weapon new to him. It could happen easily enough to a fictional character, providing both one more way in which the author can complicate the action and a nice technical detail to help the author pretend to know what he's talking about.

Which is why I thought my son would be interested.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-81102248397481192362015-09-11T19:25:00.005-07:002015-09-11T19:39:52.405-07:00If We Burned All Our Fossil Fuel

If we burned all the coal, oil and gas that's left in the ground, we'd melt Antarctica and global sea levels would rise as much as 60 meters (200 feet) over the next ten thousand years. Coastal cities from New York to Shanghai would wind up deep underwater.

(One of multiple news stories reporting on a newly published journal article.)

That sounds scary—if you miss "over the next ten thousand years."

The article the news story is based on is webbed. It gives an estimate of the consequences of burning all of Earth's fossil fuel over the next few centuries. The conclusion is that "Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium." Figure 1d from the article shows a rapid rise, close to forty meters in the first thousand years, gradually tapering off thereafter.

Three meters a century is considerably faster than the current rate of rise—not surprising since it would be driven by a CO2 concentration about eight times the current level. One way of getting a feel for how serious it would be is to convert it into a rate at which coastlines move inward, assuming no diking. The rule of thumb for that is about a hundred meters shift for every meter of rise. So three meters per century of SLR implies coastlines shifting in by about three hundred meters a century, more in some places, less in others, but well short of the catastrophe implied by "coastal cities deep underwater."

Another way of looking at it is in terms of what could be done via diking. The lowest city in the Netherlands, a country with centuries of experience protecting land below sea level, is more than six meters below sea level. With two centuries to do it in, I expect New York or Shanghai could match that.

Another conclusion of the article is that the Antarctic would end up almost ice free, but it is not clear why that would be a bad thing. We are currently in an ice age, defined by the existence of ice on the poles. There have been earlier ice ages, but for most of the history of the Earth, including most of the period with living creatures and even most of the period with mammals, the poles have been free of ice.

Figure 1c shows the estimated effect on average global temperature—an increase over about a thousand years of a little over 10°C relative to the current value, followed by a gradual decrease thereafter. That looks like a much bigger problem than sea level rise—but how big? At the same time that the hotter parts of the Earth were becoming unihabitable, the colder parts—Antarctica and currently frozen parts of the Northern Hemisphere—would be becoming habitable. An accurate calculation of the net result would require more expertise than I have and more effort than I am willing to put into the project, but I can at least try a rough back of the envelope estimate.

Warming due to CO2 tends to be greater in cold times and places than in hot, because water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, the warmer it is the more water vapor is in the air, and the more of one greenhouse gas the less the effect of adding another. I do not know how large the difference would be for warming on the scale I am looking at. To simplify my calculations, I will assume that high temperatures in hot areas go up by five degrees, low temperatures in cold areas by fifteen—readers are welcome to recalculate the numbers with other assumptions.

How high do high temperatures have to be to make a place uninhabitable? India is a very hot place and densely populated. Looking at a list of July high temperatures by city, I observe a high of 36°C in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. If that represents the upper bound for habitability, another five degrees would make any city currently above 31° uninhabitable. Counting cities, which is less work than looking up regional areas and adding them, I observe that twenty-four out of fifty-two cities are above that, so my very rough estimate is that the projected warming would make almost half of India uninhabitable by a thousand years hence.

Looking at a list of highest temperatures ever recorded by country, the figure for India is 50.6°. Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia equal or exceed that, and a few other countries come close. If I add up the area of India and all countries whose highest temperature is at least as high, I get a total of about 12.7 million square km. To allow for countries a little cooler than India, take it up to 14 million, then divide in half, since my very rough calculation suggests that only about half of India would become intolerably hot.

Very, very rough estimate: A five degree increase in maximum temperatures would make about seven million square km intolerably hot. What would we get in exchange?

Antarctica and Greenland would be ice free, for a total area of about sixteen million square km. How much of that would be warm enough to be habitable I do not know. Siberia is about thirteen million, Canada about ten million. Parts of both are presently habitable, but large parts are not. Similarly for Sweden, Norway, and Finland.

I conclude, from my very rough estimates, that the total habitable area of the Earth would almost certainly go up, not down. I leave to someone more ambitious the task of a more careful and precise calculation. A lot of people would have to move—but a thousand years is a very long time.

Why does all of this matter, given the difficulty of predicting anything a thousand years, even a hundred years, into the future? It matters because it suggests an upper bound to climate catastrophe, at least slow catastrophe. In the worst case, the long term result would be a physical world not strikingly worse for humans, possibly better, than the present world.

If the changes happened over decades there would be enormous human costs. If they took many centuries, probably not.

David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-41007534109721061562015-09-10T14:26:00.002-07:002015-09-10T15:47:32.360-07:00Why Unlikely Events Are Not Unlikely
A recent FaceBook post starts:

Is it really a coincidence that so many unprecedented weather events are happening this year

with a link to a news story about a "once in 50 years" rain in Japan. It is an argument I frequently see made, explicitly or implicitly. Lots of unlikely things are happening and there must be a reason. When the subject is climate change the unlikely things are mostly about climate.

It looks convincing until you think about it. The world is large. There are lots of different places in it where, if an unusual weather event happens, it is likely to show up in the news. There are at least four categories of unusual weather events that could happen—unusually hot, unusually cold, unusually large amount of rain, unusually small amount of rain—and probably a few others I haven't thought of. A year contains four seasons and twelve months and a record in any of them is newsworthy—a recent news story, for example, claimed that this August was the hottest August in the tropics on the record.

For a very rough estimate of how many chances there are each year for an unlikely event to happen and make the news, I calculate:

100 countries prominent enough + 100 cities prominent enough +10 geographic regions (tropics, poles, North America, ...) + 50 U.S. states = 260

x

12 months + 4 seasons=16
x

4 kinds of events that would qualify

=16,640 opportunities each year for an unlikely weather event to occur and be reported.

So we would expect more than 300 once in 50 years events to happen each year and about sixteen one in a thousand events.

My guess is that those number are too low—the story about floods in Japan does not make it clear whether the one in fifty years record is for the whole country or only one region. But they at least show why we should expect lots of unlikely things to happen each year.

If you flip a coin ten times and get ten heads, you should be surprised. If you flip sixteen thousand coins ten times each, you can expect to get ten heads about sixteen times—and should not be surprised when you do.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-12808740560944460632015-09-08T16:14:00.001-07:002015-09-08T16:17:08.245-07:00Another Angle on the Kim Davis Case
One of the less sympathetic features of the case, at least to me, is that her action is entirely symbolic. It does not prevent gay couples from getting married and it only prevented them from getting married in her town for a few days. That makes me suspect, perhaps unfairly, that she is acting not out of religious conviction but either because she likes attention or because she hopes to use the controversy to jump start a political career.

Which gets me wondering how people would feel about her action if it was more than symbolic, if by disobeying a legal rule she disapproves of she could actually keep it from taking effect. It is hard to imagine a version of her story that achieves that, but consider the same issue in a more plausible context:

You are a law enforcement official charged with enforcing the law against marijuana in a state with severe penalties for its violation. You believe marijuana should be legal. You can quietly subvert the application of the law by failing to follow up evidence of marijuana usage, recommending on spurious grounds against prosecution of arrested users, perhaps sending anonymous warnings to targets of investigations by other officers. You expect that you can get away with such actions for many years, since those supervising you are either sympathetic or incompetent. The result will be to save hundreds of people from arrest, conviction, and imprisonment.

Should you do it or should you resign?

For those who think it obvious that you should resign, that obedience to the law takes priority over moral beliefs, consider two real world situations along somewhat similar lines.

1. Jury nullification. If you are on the jury trying someone for a crime of which you believe him guilty but that you do not believe ought to be illegal, should you vote for conviction or acquittal?

2. President Obama's decision not to prosecute a specified subset of illegal immigrants.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-18899180202801091092015-09-08T14:47:00.005-07:002015-09-08T14:59:39.566-07:00Immigration, Welfare and the EU
The strongest argument against free immigration, from the standpoint of supporters of the free market, is that immigrants from poor countries may come not in order to work but in order to take advantage of a rich country's welfare system. Seen from one side it is an argument against free migration, seen from the other an argument against a welfare system. The easier it is for poor people to come to take advantage of welfare, the less attractive redistribution looks to the taxpayers paying for it, hence the less generous the system is likely to be. That may explain why levels of redistribution are generally lower in the U.S., where welfare was traditionally handled at the state level and intrastate migration was free, than in Europe, where welfare was handled at the national level and interstate migration was restricted.

Was. Within the E.U., there is now free migration. That puts pressure on national welfare systems either to reduce the level of transfers or raise redistribution to the supranational level. That pressure was limited as long as all E.U. members were relatively wealthy countries, became greater with the admission of poorer members from eastern Europe.

It is now greater still as the willingness of some European states to accept refugees and treat them generously, combined with conflicts that produce large numbers of actual refugees while making it difficult to distinguish them from voluntary migrants, is creating a flood tide of would-be residents on Europe's southern and eastern borders

One way in which the E.U. might respond is by restricting immigration. That will be difficult when many of the would-be immigrants are fleeing real dangers, hence natural objects of sympathy. How do you distinguish real refugees from migrants seeking to take advantage of generous transfers (330 € monthly, accommodation, language courses and so on during the six months that it takes Germany to decide whether or not someone qualifies for asylum, according to a comment on a recent post here)? And immigration restriction is made more difficult by the fact that border control is done at the national level. A country with low levels of redistribution can leave its border open in the expectation that most new arrivals will promptly depart for richer fields.

An alternative is to offer asylum on terms sufficiently unattractive so that only those fleeing real dangers will be inclined to take them—no welfare payments for five years, the current Czech policy for non-asylum migrants. That is the immigration policy that I recommended for the U.S., along with open borders, more than forty years ago in the first edition of The Machinery of Freedom.

Either policy might solve the immediate problem but still leave a situation where rich E.U. nations with generous welfare policies can expect to attract poor people from poorer parts of the E.U.—who, under current law, have the same rights as existing residents. It will be interesting to see whether the result is to shrink the European welfare states or to shift redistribution one level up, converting the E.U. into something a little closer to a United Statues of Europe.

For those in favor of free immigration and opposed to redistribution, the optimum solution, within the E.U. and in the world more generally, is easy. Arguably, the same solution should be optimal for those who support redistribution for egalitarian motives. Open borders plus the abolition of transfer payments might increase inequality in the U.S. or Germany but would surely reduce inequality on a global scale, the poor of India and Egypt, who would benefit, being much poorer than the poor of the U.S. or Germany.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-16503549771056853602015-09-08T12:37:00.000-07:002015-09-08T12:37:09.213-07:00Intuiting the Kim Davis Case

I have to wonder: just how many of those supporting Kentucky clerk Kim Davis's refusal to issue marriage licenses based on her religious objection to same-sex couples marrying would support a Quaker government official who refused to issue them gun permits based on a religious commitment to pacifism?—Lambda Legal Legal Director Jon Davidson

Davidson's hypothetical works if your objective is to show supporters of Kim Davis how her act looks from the standpoint of those critical of it, although it should include "and refuses to resign," since lots of people, probably including lots of those supporting Kim Davis, would approve of a Quaker who resigned rather than taking an action inconsistent with her religious views. For the reverse project, showing opponents of Kim Davis how the situation looks to supporters:

You are the only trash collector for your town. A recent change in state law has classified homeless people as trash and instructed all local trash collectors to kill homeless people and dispose of their bodies. You were appointed by an elected official who opposes the new law, so cannot easily be removed. Should you obey the new law, resign your position, or hold the position as long as you can while refusing to kill anyone?

David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-26575322504724810292015-08-30T12:08:00.000-07:002015-08-30T12:08:01.473-07:00Doing Something
A recent news story has a presidential candidate flirting with the idea of building a wall along the U.S. border—the northern border. His explanation:

Walker has long said that securing U.S. borders, especially the southern border with Mexico, is not only a deterrent to illegal immigration but also a way to ensure that terrorists and international criminals do not enter the country.

The U.S. hosts about 75 million tourists each year, coming from a wide variety of countries. Does anyone seriously believe that we can filter out from that flood one, or ten, or a thousand bad guys? All a competent terrorist needs is a passport in a name that isn't on a list of people to keep out. I do not know what country in the world is currently the least expensive source of bogus passports, but I would be surprised if the price was high enough to discourage someone supported by ISIS or al Qaeda or ... .

As in too many other cases, the underlying logic is:

Something must be done.

This is something.

David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-17520745445152823792015-08-27T20:54:00.003-07:002015-08-27T20:54:26.466-07:00It Could Be an Interesting Election
A recent story claims that Bernie Sanders is planning to drop out of the Democratic race and run as an independent; he has denied it. Donald Trump has said both that he would and would not consider running as an independent. If one runs and the other does not, that might well throw the election to the other side. The more interesting question is what happens if both run.

Sanders appeals to the left wing of the Democratic party, so the question is how many will vote their ideology at the risk of putting a Republican in the White House. Trump is a more complicated case, with positions on the right on some issues, the center, even the left on others. His appeal, so far as I can tell, is not ideological but personal—he is a more competent demagogue than the other candidates, a point persuasively argued by Scott Adams of Dilbert fame. I would expect him to pull a significant number of votes from the Democrats although more from the Republicans.

If both run, how will the major parties respond? A Sanders campaign would pull Hilary left—arguably already has. A Trump campaign might give the Republican an incentive to try to match his demagoguery, as some are doing on the anchor babies issue. Or it might persuade the candidate that Trump's voters are a lost cause—and at least not voting Democratic. That could, to be unreasonably optimistic, improve the chances of Rand Paul or someone similar. And a Republican candidate Democrats only mildly dislike would reduce the incentive for Sanders supporters to vote for Hilary.

Commenters with better worked out ideas of the implications are invited to offer them.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-32235510569610232742015-06-12T10:33:00.001-07:002015-06-12T15:57:47.882-07:00Robert Heinlein, Cell Phones, and Police
Somewhere, Heinlein comments that predicting the direct effects of technological change is relatively easy. What is harder is predicting indirect effects. His example was the automobile. He argued that it had a substantial effect on sexual behavior by giving couples a place to make love out of sight of parents.

I am not sure how convincing that example is, but it occurs to me that we have another and clearer one. Did it occur to anyone, ten or fifteen years ago, that one effect of the development of cell phone technology would be, by providing practically everyone with a pocket video camera, to greatly increase public opposition to police beating people up?

The closest I can think of is in David Brin's Transparent Society, where he argued that, in a future where everything is subject to surveillance, the transparency ought to go in both directions: The police can watch us, but we can also watch them. I do not think it occurred to him how we would get there or that the essential change would be not in what you could see but in what you could record and offer for public view.

P.S. Judging by comments, I may have been unfair to Brin, working off my memory of one book, not all of his writing.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-78857112696642285402015-06-10T09:55:00.002-07:002015-06-10T09:55:27.219-07:00Medieval Myth
On an entirely different topic ...

Given my historical interests, I have long been struck by how inaccurate popular conceptions of the Middle Ages are—summed up in the historically obsolete label of "Dark Ages." My usual example is the myth that medieval food was overspiced to hide the taste of spoiled meat, propagated by people who have never read a medieval recipe, let alone cooked from one, or spent as long as twenty seconds thinking about the consequence for a cook of routinely serving spoiled meat, disguised with expensive spices, to his boss. I also have a pair of accounts of scientific reasoning, one from a Norse saga and one from a 14th century North African.

I have just come across a delightful review of a recent book on the medieval foundations of modern science, written by a reviewer who shares my attitude towards popular confident ignorance on the subject.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-26923900581765016322015-06-09T18:40:00.000-07:002015-06-09T21:12:02.824-07:00Looking for an Honest ManI believe I have shown that John Cook, lead author of the article commonly cited for the claim that 97% of climate scientists support AGW, has lied in print about his own work. My argument assumed that Cook et. al. 2013 was itself honest, but other people have offered good evidence that it is not.

It is not surprising if there are some dishonest people on one side, or the other, or both of the climate controversy. A more interesting question is whether there are any honest people. Can anyone point at a prominent supporter of action to prevent warming who has publicly rejected Cook et. al. 2013 or its author?

The same question can be asked of the other side. Are there prominent articles criticizing the campaign to prevent warming that are clearly dishonest, clearly enough so that someone with no commitment to either side of the controversy would recognize them as such? If so, have they been publicly rejected by anyone on that side?
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-28812735437317103282015-06-09T10:17:00.001-07:002015-06-09T10:34:30.692-07:00Judging Outside Your Expertise

I have just been involved in a lengthy exchange on Facebook over my criticism of the claim that warming on the scale projected by the IPCC for 2100 can be expected to have large net negative consequences. The response I got was that the person I was arguing with was not interested in my arguments. He does not know enough to judge for himself whether the conclusion is true, so prefers to believe what the experts say.

Accepting the views of experts on a question you are not competent to answer for yourself, assuming that you can figure out who they are and what they believe, is often a sensible policy, but one can sometimes do better. Sometimes one can look at arguments and evaluate them not on the basis of the science but of internal evidence, what they themselves say. Here are three examples:

The widely cited 97% figure is based mostly on Cook et. al. 2013, which is webbed. It is often reported as the percentage of climate scientists who believe that humans are the main cause of warming and that warming will have very bad effects. Simply reading the article tells you that the second half is false. The article is about causes of warming and offers no evidence on consequences. Anyone who says it does is either ignorant or dishonest, and other things he says can be evaluated on that basis.

If you read the article carefully you discover that the 97% figure, which is a count of article abstracts not scientists, is the percentage of abstracts which say or imply that humans are *a* cause of warming ("contribute to" in the language of one example). The corresponding figure for humans as the principal cause, which is not given in the article but can be calculated from its webbed data, is 1.6%. That tells you that anyone who reports the 97% figure as the number of articles holding that humans are the main cause of warming is either ignorant or dishonest. One person who has done so, in print, is John Cook, the lead author of the article. John Cook runs skepticalscience.com, which is a major source for arguments for one side of the global warming dispute, so knowing that he is willing to lie in print about his own work is a reason not to believe things on that site without checking them. [My old blog post giving details]

One of the economists who has been active in estimating consequences of warming is William Nordhaus. He is, among other things, the original source for the 2° limit. A few years ago, he published an article in the New York Review of Books attacking a Wall Street Journal piece that argued that climate was not a catastrophic threat that required an immediate response. In it, he gave his figure for the cost of waiting fifty years instead of taking the optimal steps now—$4.1 trillion dollars—and commented that "Wars have been started over smaller sums." What he did not mention was that that sum, spread out over the rest of the century and the entire world, came to about one twentieth of one percent of world GNP. He was attacking the WSJ authors for an argument which his own research, as he reported it, supported.

In a recent Facebook exchange on the consequences of AGW for agriculture, someone linked to an EPA piece on the subject. Reading it carefully, I noticed that the positive effects of warming and CO2 fertilization were facts, with numbers: "The yields for some crops, like wheat and soybeans, could increase by 30% or more under a doubling of CO2concentrations. The yields for other crops, such as corn, exhibit a much smaller response (less than 10% increase)." The negative effects were vague and speculative: "some factors may counteract these potential increases in yield. For example, if temperature exceeds a crop's optimal level or if sufficient water and nutrients are not available, yield increases may be reduced or reversed." The same pattern held through the article.

A careful reader might also notice that the piece referred to the negative effects of extreme weather without any attempt to distinguish between extreme weather that AGW made more likely (hot summers), less likely (cold winters), or would have an uncertain effect on (droughts, floods, hurricanes). It was reasonably clear that the article was designed to make it sound as though the effects of AGW would be negative without offering any good reason to believe it was true. One telling sentence: "Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past." With most of a century to adjust, it is quite unlikely that farmers will continue to do everything in the same ways and the same places as in the past.

These are three examples of arguments for one side of the climate controversy by a source taken seriously by supporters of that side. Each can be evaluated on internal evidence, what it itself says, without requiring any expert knowledge of the subject. In each case, doing so gives you good reasons not to trust either the source or the conclusion.

Readers may reasonably suspect that I too am biased. But nothing I have said here depends on your trusting me. In each case, you can look at the evidence and evaluate it for yourself. And all of it is evidence provided by the people whose work I am criticizing.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-54063968866696049892015-06-04T23:24:00.005-07:002015-06-04T23:26:18.946-07:00How to Make Economics Fun
I'm currently in Cincinnati, where I gave a talk this evening to an audience of the teachers, high school and college, who grade the AP Econ exam. It was about how to teach economics in ways that will get and hold the attention of students.

It occurred to me that some readers of this blog might be interested.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-42239837847222359112015-06-03T15:12:00.002-07:002015-06-03T15:17:33.147-07:00Dear TSA: Give Up Already

According to multiple news stories, tests of TSA airport inspection by Department of Homeland Security red team agents found that 95% of simulated bombs and weapons were missed by the inspectors. That suggests that the considerable costs and hassles imposed by TSA on passengers over the past thirteen years accomplished almost nothing. The response by both government spokesmen and the media is that they just need to try harder, do a better job. It does not seem to have occurred to anyone that if, after thirteen years, TSA is still unable to keep people from getting bombs and weapons onto airplanes, perhaps it should give up.

That does not mean taking no precautions at all. There are obvious precautions that have nothing to do with inspections, such as reinforced doors to protect the pilot area of an airplane and arming pilots. Terrorists willing to kill other people are easier to find than terrorists willing to kill themselves, so it makes sense to be sure that if the person who checked a bag doesn't board, the bag comes off. As a protection against hijackers, it might make sense to have armed sky marshalls on many flights or to train and arm members of the flight crew. That would cost considerably less money than the current system and impose no cost in time and hassle on passengers.

Those precautions will not stop someone from blowing up an airplane with himself on it, but, to judge by the results of the red team tests, neither do the current precautions. That no such events have occurred is evidence that few or no attempts are being made.

A defender of the present system could still argue that even if it only stops one or two incidents, it is worth doing, since human life is infinitely valuable. There are two things wrong with that argument. The first is that human life is not infinitely valuable, as shown by the choices humans make. All of us choose to take some risks we could avoid, to drive to visit relatives when we could stay home, to eat something short of the perfect diet, to see the doctor less often than we would if avoiding death was something we regarded as infinitely valuabie.

The second thing wrong with the argument is that the present system also has a cost in life, less visible than a terrorist attack but probably larger than the cost of terrorist attacks prevented by the TSA. The more expensive, in money, time, and hassle airline travel is, the more people choose to drive instead. Driving is a great deal more dangerous per mile than flying, so more people driving means more people dying.

We cannot calculate the number of dead without knowing the size of the shift from flying to driving produced by the TSA, but we can at least get some feel for the order of magnitude. The mortality rate from driving is about one death per 100 million vehicle miles. The mortality rate from flying is very close to zero—one estimate I found was .07 deaths per billion passenger miles. So, roughly speaking, every hundred million passenger miles diverted from flying to driving represents one more highway death.

In February of 2015, passengers on commercial airlines flew 60 billion passenger miles. Assuming the figure is the same for other months, that's about 700 billion passenger miles a year. If we assume, I think conservatively, that one percent of passenger miles are diverted from flying to driving by TSA hassles, that comes to 7 billion passenger miles or about 70 deaths. Add that up for the thirteen years the TSA has been in operation, and it has killed almost a thousand people. Invisibly.
David Friedmanhttps://firstname.lastname@example.com:blogger.com,1999:blog-19727420.post-1416215036566416042015-06-03T14:54:00.002-07:002015-06-03T14:54:23.934-07:00A Record for LAX
I am currently sitting in LAX en route from San Jose to Cincinnati, where I am giving a talk. I have concluded that LAX holds a record. It is the worst marked airport in the world. It's true that I have not actually been in all of the world's airports so there may be one somewhere that is worse, but I doubt it.

I arrived on Delta, was to leave on United. The Delta terminal had, so far as I could tell, no signs showing what airline flew out of what terminal, no signs showing how to get to terminal 7, which turned out to be where United was, no visible information for any non-Delta flights.

I succeeded in finding my gate by asking people along the way. If I did not speak English—and a lot of people coming through LAX don't—I might still be looking.

LAX is currently under construction, which can explain some problems, but not this. It would be easy enough to make up a signboard showing which airline was at which terminal and put one in every terminal. It would be easy enough to put up signs showing, from each terminal, what direction you went to get to each other terminal. But nobody has bothered, judging at least by the Delta terminal and most of the space between it and United.
David Friedmanhttps://email@example.com


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Producer Trem Carr would remake this film at Lone Star/Monogram in 1935 as "The Dawn Rider" with John Wayne, and again in 1938 at Universal as "Western Trails" with Bob Baker. The local express agent, the father of Tom McGuire (Tom Tyler), is killed during a robbery. In the chase that follows Tom is wounded and taken by his friend, Sandy Thompson (Al Bridge as Alan Bridge), to the home of Janice Warren (Betty Mack) to recover. Janice and Tom soon fall in love, and that brings complications as Sandy is also in love with Janice, and Tom believes that her brother Cliff (Gordon DeMain as G. D. Woods), is one of the gang members that robbed the express office. Cliff challenges Tom to a shoot-out in the street. Tom accepts, not knowing that his guns have been emptied by the jealous Sandy. The latter, in a change of heart, steps into the duel and shoots Cliff just before he is shot down from ambush by saloon owner Willis (Stanley Blystone), the secret leader of the gang. Willis is captured by Tom and Tom takes Sandy to the doctor (Si Jenks.) Cliff confesses before dying to his role in the robbery, and Tom and Janice are reconciled.
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Looking for jobs in Bristol? Snagajob has great opportunities with the area's leading companies. And applying for Bristol jobs has never been easier. Look at the job listings below, click on a job title that interests you and hit the "apply now" button. Part-time jobs, teen jobs, student jobs and summer jobs are now just a click away. Start your job search now.
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With the success of the first performance on December 21, Dr. Melissa Davis in collaboration with Truth Church members will present an encore performance on Dec. 28. All are invited. The play is titled: … Read more
Letters of Blessing and to Santa – 2014
Dear Santa,
I can't wait till Christmas. I wan't Disney infinity xbox 1 and kareocer mackine. I would like a boy elf for Taylor know how happy she would be. Plz give me one if you do Thank you. I … Read more
Holiday Rhythms: Pa Rum Pa Pum Pum
From Building Strong Families.
It was a cold winter day as my fiancé and I braved the dismal weather and faced the snow on a day road trip through the Rocky Mountains. It was a few weeks before Christmas, and … Read more
MDOT urges safety this Holiday Season especially with cell phone
The days are shorter, the weather is colder and the time of Santa Claus and shopping, family and friends is quickly approaching. This Christmas, with the national average price of gasoline at its lowest level in five years (according to … Read more
Memories of our County – 12/24/14
Nannie Maude Reynolds shares memories and thoughts about Winston County's past.
Christmas at Our House
Christmas was always a time of pure joy at our house. In the early years, we never got much in the way of toys.
I … Read more
Journal Office closed for Christmas, New Year's
The Winston County Journal office will be closed Thursday, December 25 for Christmas Day. We will re-open at 8 a.m., Friday, December 26.… Read more


text:
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Cover graphic design itself, inspired by a character of death mythology and Tolkien´s myths, The Black Captain flying around imaginary ruins of the Angmar fortress on a winged beast.
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text:
My flow blow like Glock cocked -make the neighborhood watch
For my team I keep my ish top notch like in a
Dream how Stokely told me never run from the cops
Lyric Meaning
Talking on some black power coming from the street shit.
Shout out to Stokely Carmichael.
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text:
Busty Rita Faltoyano gets double penetrated and spermed on the boat
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#2210 of 6793
Dwight, IL
Comment, Like, Favorite
Expert Printing and Assembly
Shipping Within 2 - 3 Business Days
Millions of Satisfied Customers
Nbc Facade Selective Coloring
Thomas Woolworth
Photograph - Photography - Digitally Enhanced
NBC Facade Seletive Coloring.
From The Series Downtown Chicago Facades.
On Memorial Day 2014 the plan for the photo shoot was simple. Go downtown and tour the area as a tourist would.
Our first stop was �THE BEAN� and it was a perfect moment of light and interaction with other visiting international tourist to finally capture some Photos of this Shinny Object.
Just outside of �The Bean� area we caught a two (2) hour ride on a open Double Decker Tour Bus.
The top deck is tall enough to offer a different and fresh view and perspective of the Downtown Facades.
Chicago weather gave us the last hour of the tour ride in a light cold drizzle of a rain. We held our open roof top view and put some ponchos on and continued the tour and the Photo Shoot.
This is just one photograph in my Downtown Chicago Facades series, additional Downtown Chicago Facades can be found in my FAA Chicago Facades and Chicago IL gallery.
You can also find a very large selection of Chicago Photographic images and Artwork in my FAA Chicago Sports, Chicago Sears Willis Tower, Aerial of Chicago �The High Noon� series and Chicago IL galleries.
This photograph has been Digitally Enhanced to help this image, to be considered a unique moment in time.
Note: If an image has the FAA watermark in the lower right hand corner it will NOT appear on any print you purchase.
From my eyes, through the view finder to the click of the shutter. I hope you enjoy this moment in time that has been captured.
Stop by and check out some of my other Photographic artwork on Fine Art America. With over 155+ Virtual Photographic Galleries by Thomas Woolworth on Fine Art America you will find many subjects of personal interest.
Also on my FAA site you can explore dozens of my Photographic Series including: The Photo Art series, The Walt Disney World series; The Midnight series; The Hot Air Balloons series; The Butterfly series; The Firemen series; An aerial series of the Chicago land area; The Holiday series and The Route 66 series to name just a few.
Photographer (1977), Digital Artist and Owner V'CAD Support (since 1987). email:�email@example.com
June 14th, 2014
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Georgia will kick off the 2008 football season as top dawgs in at least one major poll.
The preseason USA Today coaches poll, released this morning, has Georgia at No. 1. SEC rivals Florida and LSU are fifth and sixth. Georgia plays these two teams on back-to-back weekends in October.
ATHENS, Ga. - Longtime Georgia play-by-play announcer Larry Munson is nearly recovered from brain surgery and looking forward to his 43rd season in the radio booth.
HOOVER, Ala. - The mild-mannered, pokerfaced Mark Richt of the past won't be back patrolling Georgia's sidelines this season.
HOOVER, Ala. - The Georgia Bulldogs were still celebrating a Sugar Bowl victory when the national title talk started.
HOOVER, Ala. - The superstar quarterback and the reigning national championship team desperately seeking one - any reasonable facsimile will do, really - share the spotlight to start Southeastern Conference media days.
BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno and a fellow Bulldog, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe were named to the first team by Southeastern Conference football coaches in their preseason poll.
ATHENS - Georgia athletic director Damon Evans says he is "anticipating" the return of radio play-by-play announcer Larry Munson for home games this season following Munson's brain surgery. The 85-year-old Munson has not yet made his return official for his 43rd season as the voice of the Georgia network.
ATHENS - Georgia athletic director Damon Evans says he is "anticipating" the return of radio play-by-play announcer Larry Munson for home games this season following Munson's brain surgery.
The 85-year-old Munson has not yet made his return official for his 43rd season as the voice of the Georgia network.
Comcast / Charter Sports Southeast (Charter channel 37) announced Tuesday it will produce the University of Georgia's first game of the 2008 season against Georgia Southern as a pay-per-view broadcast. Viewers in Georgia can order the August 30 game through their local, participating cable provider for $24.99 prior to the day of the event and $29.99 the day of the game.
ATHENS - Georgia football fans will be a nation without a bulldog for a while longer.
ATHENS - Georgia defensive end Michael Lemon was suspended by coach Mark Richt on Thursday after he was arrested and charged with misdemeanor battery and felony aggravated battery.
ATHENS - Georgia coach David Perno earned a raise and a five-year contract after leading the Bulldogs to the Southeastern Conference regular-season championship and a runner-up finish in the College World Series.
ATHENS - Two University of Georgia football players have been arrested and jailed on charges of simple battery.
ATHENS - Uga VI, mascot for Georgia football teams that won six bowl games among 87 victories over a nine-year span, was interred at the university's football stadium on Monday in a mausoleum with the remains of five predecessors.
Uga VI, the beloved white English bulldog that served as the University of Georgia mascot for nearly a decade, has died, his owner, Sonny Seiler of Savannah said Saturday. He was 9.
Uga was the winningest mascot in the university's history - the football team was 87-27 and won two SEC titles in his tenure.
ATHENS - Georgia coach Dennis Felton has dismissed Billy Humphrey from the team following Humphrey's third arrest in less than a year.
Page 105 of 121
ATHENS - The red-clad Georgia fans began booing before halftime.
They are viewed as nothing more than caretakers, a pair of quarterbacks who mainly need to get their teams in the right play, avoid big ...
Alabama coach Nick Saban believes Georgia's Nick Chubb and Sony Michel stack up well against any tailback tandem in college football.
BATON ROUGE, La. - Southern has launched the Devon Gales Fund to provide financial assistance to Gales' medical expenses following his surgery for a spinal injury ...
Teams in the SEC's East Division have a large chip on their shoulders.
Police say Georgia receiver Isaiah McKenzie is alleged to have made "terroristic threats" at an Athens restaurant.
Mark Richt had to acknowledge this week is a little different for Georgia.
ATHENS - Nick Chubb knew he had to extend his streak of 100-yard rushing games when he saw how much it meant to his offensive linemen.
ATHENS - In only a few months, Greyson Lambert has gone from losing his starting job at Virginia to setting a NCAA completion-percentage record at No ...
ATHENS - Georgia redefined its offensive perception with a balanced haul in last week's win over South Carolina.
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