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Here is your weekly general discussion. I think Matt has a Rule 5 preview coming up, also, but here's a fresh thread for the Winter Meetings conversation and beyond.
564 thoughts on "General Discussion – Week of December 3 "Why Are They Called The Winter Meetings When It's Still Fall" Edition"
Ugh this sitting back and waiting is infuriating.
Um, you know what's more infuriating? Vance Worley and Trevor May for Ben f$%@!& Revere
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Could #Yankees lose on Ibanez too? Source says #Mariners, #Rangers, #Phillies all have expressed interest.
Another fielding liability. Just what we need…
Jayson Stark was on with Mikey Miss today. Some highlights:
He says the Phillies are "resigned" to the fact they have to trade for a Center Fielder he mentions:
Peter Bourjos (would love a Worley + for Bourjos deal) (Stark believes he IS available)
Dexter Fowler (I'm a fan, most of you aren't) – not available for what the Phillies have to trade
They've shown a willingness to include Tommy Joseph or Sebastian Valle (Valle is preferred) and their young starters.
They've talked to the agents to mid tier pitchers and have talked about adding a starter if they traded Worley.
Less than 30% chance they sign Bourn, less than 10% chance they sign Hamilton, they're "AWFULLY wary of Hamilton's baggage.
They're coveting infield defense at third base (so no Mark Reynolds).
Believes odds of trading Jacoby Ellsbury are low but the Red Sox would take a call from the Phillies. Believes the Yankees are shopping Curtis Granderson.
Cody Ross is an easier fit for the Phillies. Asking price is 3 years $21 million, Phillies are interested.
The Phillies/Diamondbacks Upton/Lee was discussed in some capacity but never got far enough to be a legit rumor. Have NO intentions of trading Cliff Lee.
"Have NO intentions of trading Cliff Lee." Which is exactly what I wanted to hear.
If we can get Bourjos for a package centered around Worley, pull the trigger. Ideally we'd get Anibal or Greinke to take his spot, but realistically we could just roll with Cloyd/Pettibone, or sign any of a number of starters to a short-term deal.
As for Joseph being available… I don't like that. I'd tell everyone that he's untouchable just so teams wouldn't be demanding him instead of Valle.
it's definitely winter here in Ireland I'll tell you that much!
So Bourn < 30%, Hamilton < 10%. Wonder what he would handicap the percentage for Youkilis, Ross and Swisher.
It is meteorolgical winter already. It may come down to Bourn. From the report, it sounds like Stark expects Bourjos.
Worley for Bourjos could work.
In a baseball calendar anytime after the World Series and up to the reporting of Pitchers and Catchers in February is considered winter. A true Chekhov winter; a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. But when P&Cs start up in February, then Spring is sprung. Summer starts with Opening Day in April. The baseball calendar is like no other.
Bellman…a true baseball poet no less.
According to several sites, Angels are about to sign Blanton. I wonder if that closes the door on a potential Worley+ for Bourjos deal.
That ain't good news. Hope Rube can pull the trigger soon. Salisbury says Pettibone could be looked at as a replacement for Worley if Worley is indeed traded.
$15 million over two years for a truly replacement level player – it is good that we have stockpiled young starters in the minors.
The angels need more than 1 pitcher.
They did get two Hanson and Blanton.
I'm a big fan of a Worley, May + for Josh Willingham. The Twins front office is absolutely delusional though when it comes to the thought of rebuilding so who knows if he's available or not.
Apparently Revere's available but I don't know if he's a fit. He's a good young player but he his power's non-existant, even less than Juan Pierre possibly.
Now that the Red Sox have filled their outfield, I think the Phils should sign Cody Ross for the same money Willingham is making and keep Worley and May. Ross gives you a backup in center field whereas Wilingham is pretty much a left fielder only and therefore blocks Ruf.
The Dodgers are not only spending money like sailors on shore leave but filling up their 40 man roster. Two names of interest are outfielders Yasiel Puig and Alex Cabrera, both good young right hand bats. The Dodgers may need one until Crawford is cleared
to go but that leaves one. Cabrera is further along in development terms but Puig is the guy I would love to see in candy stripes. Problem is the Dodgers paid $6 M to sign the guy but maybe that just means cash from the petty cash drawer the way they're fixed these days.
I'd trade Ruf at that point. Maybe include him in a deal for a back end starter if they have to trade Worley (Houston needs a DH).
Houston does have a good starting pitcher I'd take.
To be clear, Cody Ross can't hit like Willingham. He's a little better defensively but doesn't match up offensively and it would be 2 years vs 3. I'd probably go with Ross and keeping the prospects also though.
I agree that Ross isn't the hitter that Willingham is but he is a much better fielder. Not that Ross is a great fielder but Willingham is bad. Ross also provides positional flexibility which is great. If we get Willingham Ruf gets no shot, which maybe fine since WIllingham is a much better at this point but I'd rather go Ross and keep the prospects as well.
We need a CF more than anything else. We can get by at the start of the season with what we have at the corners and see where that goes. It is far easier to get a corner than CF.
At some point I hope the Phils realize that strengthing the pen is the #1 action item this offseason, the way the game is played today the pen is as important as the starting staff. I like the young arms in the pen and believe signing an established set up man e.g., Adams would be terrific. IMO we make the playoffs last year despite all the other issues if the pen was good, must have cost us 20-25 games. I know it is not as sexy as a CF/3B/COF but…
I'm not sure I buy those odds for Bourn. I think they're a lot more interested in him than what's been being reported to the media. Ruben's talking to Boras about price right now so that's something that could develop quickly. I'd doubt he wants to play in Seattle unless he gets overpaid.
I could easily see Bourn playing Center Field for us next year if Scott Boras comes off his $90+ million contract for Bourn… which is going to happen at some point.
Ichiro's apparently told the Phillies he can play Center Field and is confident in his ability to do so. I wouldn't be upset if that happened and they used their resources to sure up Left Field and Third Base with Youkilis and Willingham/Ross.
From Jim Salisbury's latest Winter Meetings Report. He also says they've targeted Willingham and they'd like to sign Kevin Youkilis (in the related video, he says they'd like to stick to a 1-2 year deal).
Now that's a solid veteran line up
Mayberry/Brown/Ruf/Nix rotation in Right
on opening day. Shift Brown/Mayberry to the 8th spot in the line up when Ruiz gets back, I like the look of that offense. Maybe flip flop Rollins and Ichiro although I like Ichiro as a guy who can pull a ball through the hole in right.
With the age of this lineup, what would be the over/under on the number of games this entire lineup played together? You can substitute Chooch with Kratz too. I would guess less than 50…
I would rather not pursue Willingham or Cuddyer. Both are really awful defensive OFs who are entering their mid-30s. Maybe if they were free agents but why give up anything of value for them, especially when you have Ruf, who'll be making the minimum next year? They seem like the type of players we should be avoiding.
Ludwick!. Won't cost more than those guys make and wont cost any picks.
I don't know why we're not in on Ludwick. Sounded like he's fine with a 2 year deal. Could be a nice bargain.
Youkilis hit .235 last year with an OBP of .336. Why exactly is everyone so excited to sign him?
I don't know if people are excited, but he's probably the best of a poor group at 3B. He's going to be relatively cheap. You're paying for last year's production, but there's a chance he rebounds to his 2008-2010 levels and then you've got a very valuable player. Most likely he hits like he did in 2011 and spends misses about 30 games, which makes him a modest bargain.
where would that .336 OBP rank for the Phillies starters? I doubt he hits .235 again. But guarantee he will not play 150+ games though. I really like risk option for Youkilis and Phillies have to be closer to the playoff than the Indians right?
No excited per se but he at least brngs fire and knows how to take a pitch and take a walk which are all qualities this team could use. He wants to win.
Pettibone's from the Anaheim area so he could be what the Angels would prefer. Especially if they fill up their rotation with the Hansons and Blantons. He could start the year in AAA as insurance for the inevitable injury or underperformance. I'd actually hate to lose him as I think he's going to be much better than people seem to believe.
If the market shrinks on Bourn enough, I wonder if the Phillies could get him on a shorter term deal, as long as they beat the average annual salary of Upton. That way Boras could claim it as a victory of sorts. Something along the lines of 3 years at 50 mil. I know he'll probably find some sucker to overpay, but for a guy in his 30's who makes his living with his legs, has no power and doesn't have that great an OBP, I don't think that's an unreasonable deal.
Boujos appears very similar to Bourn. Great D, no walks, lots of Ks. He has less speed and more power. I definitely do not want to give up too much for him, especially with Gillies and Collier in the wings.
Willingham had much better OBP than Ross. In retrospect, he would have been a better choice than Pence. Only reason I would not like him is that he will block Ruf (who I think is really a bench guy anyway).
PhxPhilly….and 3/4 years younger and less expensive.
What about Jacoby Ellsbury? Something along the line of letting red sox pick 3 of these 4 players.
Worley, May, Valle, and Gillies and 1 of these 4 players JC Ramirez, BJ Rosenberg, Michael Schwimer, Tyler Cloud. I think that can get it done.
I don't like including Gillies on a Ellsbury deal. We would only have one year of control of Ellsbury and then you would have to resign him for a contract similar to what Bourn is going to get (and he'd be the same age as Bourn is this year), replace him (with Gillies if he's ready) or go through this whole CF drama next year. Plus if you resigned Ellsbury to the four years that Bourn is likely to get this year you block guys like Collier, Tocci (I have high hopes for him and hope the Phillies fast track him) or Quinn (if he is forced to move to CF) for an extra year. I'd rather sign Bourne this year. and save the prospects.
The Michael Young rumors are going strong. That's just rank stupidity. Paying money for a player who costs you wins. Someone should give the Phils front office the web addresses for Fangraphs and baseball reference. This makes me irate.
Unfortunately, Amaro (and Gillick before him) hate advanced metrics.
What's infuriating is that sucking at baseball is not something that should require sabermetrics to detect. If you can't tell that someone is terrible without looking at advanced stats, fire your scouts.
Actually Amaro said last year they do review metrics…part of the overall decision making process.
He said that but he said he goes with what the scouts see more often than not. Advanced Metrics are used to gauge other team's perceptions of players.
Ok, so this morning it looks like Michael Young could be a real possibility. Ben Revere could be another. Cody Ross another.
Not to bad, even without Ross, play Ruiz 6th, Ruf 7, Brown 8?
Actually this is a very uninspired Line-Up…sorry! Not to mention Revere is a true lead off hitter why would they hit him 2nd.
Because Rollins is a baby and will pout if he isn't hitting leadoff.
I prefer a better 5 hole hitter than Young but it doesn't sound as if that is going to happen. (I like Swisher) Anyway, I think that lineup is pretty solid.
My question on michael young is at his age, can he field the position?? is he a upgrade over galvis and fransen? havent seen a lot of young, dont watch american league. cause i hate the dh rule.
Okay, let's put this in perspective. Last year, IN THE FIELD ALONE, Young cost his team between 2 and 3 games. That's almost unheard of. So, if you get Young and put him at third, you are going to be paying him a lot of money for the privilege of having him LOSE games for you. The team should have signed Chavez or Youkilis if they were going in this direction and would be far, far better off just going with Frandsen and Galvis at third. Much cheaper and much better. When your front office can't distinguish *hit from shinola, you've got a serious problem.
Sorry one other point about michael bourn. i love him. but not at anything past 3 years. 39 million, which i know he wont take. still have hope for gillies, or even collier, to improve, why tie up a lot of years and dollars in a player,whos whole game is based on speed, and is over 30, makes no sense to me.
See, here's rocom proving my point from yesterday. Sure, he doesn't come out and say explicitly that he doesn't want the Phillies to participate in the FA market, but he just doesn't think they should pay the market price for any free agents, which amounts to the same thing. 3/39 is ludacriously low for Bourn. The only "defense" one could make for rocom's position is if one believes that this season's FA market is somehow anm aberation. But it isn't. Next year's class looks even thinner, and with more TV money available, likely will be even more inflated. Welcome to the new normal.
Of course it's a moot point because we have the worst GM in the game, but if anything that makes it even more imperative that the Phillies use their one asset – a big payroll.
That said, I am now in favor of tearing the team down and starting over, since (a) there's no point in trying to win with the village idiot as GM, and (b) maybe tearing the team apart and losing 90 plus games will get the village idiot fired.
lol, overreact much
Young is owed $16 Million. Is it possible we are getting them to Pay $8 Million and we are getting someone in addition to Young in the deal?
My guess is the deal for Young is Lindblom and Texas pays $8M and I'm not thrilled about Young at all. The Phils are probably waiting on Youk's decision first. I know the Phils made him an offer and its probably only a one year offer. The other advantage of helping Texas is that it would free up money for them to sign Greinke and Upton which would move Hamilton to Seattle and possibly Bourn to us. There is a serious musical chairs game going on. Texas wants Upton over Hamilton and they want Upton plus Greinke which will take lots of money. An awful lot of discussion with no result…. Ross for 3 years vs Willingham, minues prospects, for 2 years? If Worley is traded, do they sign a Correa type or let Cloyd and Pettibone fight it out?
Looks like Hamilton to Seattle when (if) the Upton deal goes through. Michael Bourn's price seems to be going way down.
Catch. rule 5 is a crap shoot. can't see teams relying on that, for every werth there are hundreds of stiffs. wip had de fratus going in young trade. my favorite young player is defratus. if young waives his no trade. my god 16 million and he tells you if he wants to leave or not. god bless america, most of us live paycheck to paycheck. I really as i get older hate no trades and guanteed long contracts. they can ruin your team.
Ender Inciarte….nice pick up!
Anyone excited that they are interested in Ben Revere? I'd love to see him at the top of the lineup. Lots of base runners for Howard and Utley.
While Young is more of a one year stop gap, I would easily pay $6-8 mil in exchange for schwimmer. It also leaves the possibility of Hamilton, Bourn, Revere, and even Borjous as well as a reliable reliever such as mike adams.
I suggested a Leonys Martin for Valle trade a long while back. Valle is Mexican, which might be good for the Texas market, and they certainly need a catcher in the wings. I would hope there would be other names involved if we're going to take Young. But my number one hope is that we're in on Chase Headley or Jed Gyorko. Especially Headley. I am less worried about our right handed hitting than I am losing our long held left handed hitting advantage when/if Utley retires after next year and Howard continues to regress. We saw what happened to the offense without them. He also plays good d. I'm not worried about blocking Asche and his questionable defense and power. Move him to left or include him in the trade. When Franco is ready, move Headley to left. I would offer Worley, May, and some combination of Asche and/or Ceasar Hernandez. I'd even talk Dom Brown. If something like that doesn't get it done, I'd offer less of a package for Gyorko – maybe take out May and not discuss Brown. Both Headley and Gyorko are cheap, and would allow them to spend elsewhere.
While I'd love either one, I also don't think we have the pieces to get either. Not even if it was Worley, Brown, Biddle, and May. You are going to need a top 10 guy and we maybe have a top 50.
From Knobler/Zolecki/Heyman
Phillies interested in Ben Revere/Gillick and Amaro both met with Terry Ryan today/The Phillies are talking to the Twins about Revere.
Good young player but, like I said, he has no power. I guess he'd have to lead off or bat 7th or 8th in the line up.
He's a good young, cheap, stolen base threat though.
Willingham too….
I've wanted Willingham since the 2011 trade deadline. There's questions as to whether or not he's available.
I wouldn't mind a Revere/Willingham for Worley, May, Valle +
I'm stunned and not in a good way.
I've criticized Amaro but also defended him. Yesterday I said that the Phillies' front office was mediocre, which was taken by some as criticism. As today dawns and it looks like the Phillies are going to give up real assets for a basically worthless player with a horrible contract, it's clear that mediocre was laughably generous. Small strengths in scouting and player development are not nearly enough to outweigh the fact that we have the worst general manager in the major leagues.
Here's a prediction for you: this Phillies team doesn't make the post season again until 5 years after Amaro is gone. And another prediction: by 2015 they will be a 90 loss team. If not sooner. For the next couple years they probably have enough pitching to keep them hovering near .500, but after that it will get really ugly.
Lately the comments section of this site has been taken over by WIP morons who don't know the first thing about building a succesful baseballl team. But I'm starting to think that even some of them would do a better job than Amaro.
An F- grade for Amaro for the off season is not premature. By the time it is over, we're going to start asking what grade is lower than an F-.
I'm assuming you are speaking specifically about the Michael Young pickup?
Yes. I mean, how is this trade defensible on any level? Even if you assume a return to form as a hitter – a generous assumption IMO – his defense at thrid base is so poor at this stage of his career than he will be a raplacement level player. Either Fransen or Galvis would be better, and those guys are just stop gaps at best.
And what qualifies you as anything other than a WIP moron who doesn't know the first thing about building a successful baseball team? Get off your high horse, Larry.
Will you stop stalking me please? Don't you have anything better to do with your time?
Sorry, I don't. I have nothing better to do than e-stalk you. Nobody's comments are as ridiculous as yours, so it's hard not to take notice.
Die painfully in a fire you piece of shlt.
Seriously, Larry?
Yes, seriously.
I've been on my best behavior lately, yet have somehow acquired 3 stalkers. I want to make this site as unpleasant as possible for them, so I will be enaging in an escalating program of invective to try to drive them from the site.
I'm sorry, but what exactly have I done to you other than disagree with you a few times?
Bullshlt. And you know it. You've been making a nasty serious of personal attacks directeda at me over the past couple of days, along with mischaracterizing my posts. From now on, everything you post on this site will be met by escalating nastiness until you leave or apologize and stop stalking me.
Die painfully in a fire a$$hole.
Not bullshit. I've made no personal attacks, other than questioning your scouting experience. lol. Maybe re-read my posts. You're full of nonsense.
Not bullsh1t. I've made no personal attacks, other than questioning your scouting experience. lol. Maybe re-read my posts. You're full of nonsense. You want me to apologize? That's laughable.
And seriously, what makes you think that your opinions are any more valuable than anyone else's on this site? Look in a mirror, buddy.
Please leave Larry. I waste too much of my precious time scrolling past your long winded nonsense.
While I don't agree with Larry's tone I do agree with his assessment of Young. He is dead weight only worth the risk for a team with a DH. I so hope he does not waive his no trade clause.
Larry clealry has a long and distinguished record of building successful baseball teams. Along with name calling anyone who disagrees with him.
And adding BJ Upton would have completely reversed Larry's prediction.
Larry, it is tragically funny how anyone who disagrees with you or does not make your suggested moves with you is either a WIP moron and incompetent. What qualifications do you have that are superior to RAJ's? Lastly, did you think that maybe Michael Young can play all infield positions and can be a safety net for Utley or Howard?
And Revere is a player who might have made sense if they did something else to upgrade their offense. But they haven't and apparently won't. Adding the worst player in baseball (based on 2012 performance) does not count.
My main goal is for Schwimer to be out of here ASAP. Let him take his pretentious a** somewhere else.
Schwimer will be pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters in less than 5 years. Mark my words.
Phillies HAVE acquired Ben Revere…
per Zolecki. Worley + (wth?)
If Young refuses to waive his no trade, and they sign a decent starter to replace Worley plus Swisher (the best available remaining corner outfielder), this off season might still be salvaged. Despite, not because of, Amaro.
I like revere a lot. Solid defense, good pedigree, low cost, etc.
Swisher in rf, a platoon of ruf/brown in left (or brown/Mayberry with ruf in AAA) plus a set up guy and I'd be okay with them starting one of the prospects in lieu of signing another starter.
The michael young thing completely baffles me.
That was me
Scott Miller says it is Worley plus "good " minor league pitching prospect.
Worley AND Trevor May… are you kidding me Ruben?
I like Ben Revere, I think he could be Jon Jay type player for us, but seems like an overpay.
I am a bit Phillies-Centric and thus have never heard of Ben Revere. I do remember Ben Revera though.
I like the Revere trade. Starting position players are going for insane money on the free market. The Phillies will get more value from a center fielder than a 4th starter. And Trevor May is enough of a risk that I won't lose sleep on that one.
With Inciarte and Revere the outfield just became really crowded today. I am guessing that means our outfield is set and while I like Revere it looks like the outfield of a team that is rebuilding. Additionally, Ruf seems to be the odd man out without a chance to prove himself. (Revere, Brown, Mayberry, Nix, Inciarte). Maybe Mayberry becomes the odd man out or Inciarte is offered back if Ruf does have a really strong spring.
Looks like the guarantee of spots to players not guaranteed to warrant as much.
Like the prospects for Inciarte, but not a lock, and the plan might be as a defensive replacement for Ruf at times and backing up Revere. Corner OF not set at all, I believe.
Boston said they look for a back-up 1B who can also play other positions. Laynce Nix for the Red Sox, sounds like a winner. He can play all 3 OF positions.
It all might roll back to the first great trade suggestion of this offseason. Domonic Brown for Corey Hart. You leave Ruf in Left, C. Hart in RF, Young at 3B (those theoretical statistical flaws not grounded in real world events) Kratz and later Ruiz. All those right handed (and supposed power expected hitters) can balance out Utley and the major return of Howard..
So , it looks like the light at the end of the tunnel.
Only one more year of Utley and then we'll be saying we need another left handed hitter now…
I am ok with giving up May. I think he is destined for the bullpen anyway.
Just because the Phillies just made a trade, I don't want my hatred of Michael Schwimer to be lost.
If I ever see him, I might come after him with a pair of clippers and shave that ridiculous afro as well. Stop being edgy – you grew up in one of the richest parts of America with no real hardships. Hopefully you fail, and fail hard.
There is no need for this kind of talk, keep your personal hatred for players to yourself please!
Nah – I think I'll let everyone know it. I won't rest until he's out of town!
Down with Schwimer? Fear the Fro? Give me a freaking break. Nobody's afraid of anything about this guy.
If this were the '60's, he'd be a hippy complaining about how the "man" is keeping him down instead of looking at his mediocre stuff and realizing that he is nothing more than a 11th man on a pitching staff. He'll talk verbosely about "Schwimlocity" (spelling might be off on that) like he's Cy Young and invented the game of pitching.
No – I'm not finished by a long shot with this clown. And he's going to know about it!!!
Really Schwim…is this you pranking us again! You dawg….you got me again.
Wow, talking about no power. 13 doubles 6 triples in 511 at bats. He makes Freddy G look like a slugger. I guess he is a younger Juan Pierre without the triples? I hope he is a great fielding center fielder so that if Ruff can manage in Left, he could help compensate. At this point, Ruff is the only possible source of power influx. That is a lot to ask of this guy.
Don't they have to get a corner outfielder with pop? Neither Revere nor Young, if obtained, fill the power void.
Still holding onto that 16th pick, lol.
Just about every defensive stat sees Revere as one of the best fielding outfielders in the majors.
Trading Trevor May and worley for a cheap michael bourn like center field without surrending a top pick, is a great move. I don't get the trevor may love, he hasn't posted an #1 or #2 since A ball in 2010. He has SERIOUS control issues and at best would've been a number 3. Worley is a bit of question mark due to injury concerns and could very well be the next JA Happ, who as we all know was an overacheiver as a Phillie. This is a great trade for the phillies and allows them to pursue an outfield bat, maybe Hamilton? Also this move allows Babe Ruff to "rome" left field.
I don't know what you guys are talking about. Trading a #4 starter, plus arguably our top pitching prospect–a guy who had a down year, to be sure, but showed flashes of brilliance when he could control his stuff–for Ben Revere is a horrible move in my mind. Revere is fast, but he struck out almost twice as much as he walked last year and his career OBP of .319 is quite a bit lower than that of Jimmy Rollins, who gets on base too little to be a traditional leadoff man but makes up for it by doing a lot of other things well, including hitting for power. Revere has ZERO power: five home runs in his entire professional career, all in the minors. The statistically minded fans on this board spent all of last season poking holes in the Phillies' love affair with Juan Pierre. Well, even in his worst years, Juan Pierre had an OBP within a few points of Ben Revere in last year, his best year.
That doesn't mean that he won't get better–he's still young. But the best case scenario for him is a Juan Pierre-type career. The BEST case. And the Phillies just traded their only decent pre-arb pitcher and their best pitching prospect for that level of production. And in doing so, they have not addressed many of the glaring weaknesses we all saw in last year's team: the lack of power, lack of on-base skills, their lineup's heavy skew toward the left side. I'm really flabbergasted. But please, everyone convince me of why I'm wrong.
Let's face it we were dreaming on May and Worley is as replacement level as they come. Now I do think you are correct on Revere's ceiling as Juan Pierre type much better fielder tho.
Let's see if Charlie has the balls to bat him lead off….
I wondered the same thing.. haha I'll bet Revere bats second. He has perfect splits by the way so righty/lefty has no bearing. Btw, he was hitting well over 300 until he tired in August, he's a smallish guy. He hit 326 in his minor league career so this guy can hit. I never really knew anything about him but he looks pretty good on paper. A corner OF move is coming… bet the ranch…
We can debate whether Worley will ever be more than replacement level, perhaps, but he's making close the minimum. The Phillies will now have to plug his spot with Tyler Cloyd–and his mid-80s fastball–a free agent pitcher from outside the organization, which will cost them a large amount of money (I'd say Blanton's deal would be a good starting point), or they will have to hope to catch lightning in a bottle with one of the young guys like Morgan or Pettibone or some journeyman castoff. Even so, maybe I could see making that deal if it were Revere for Worley straight up. But adding May … no. I'm sorry, this is madness. And from reading Twitter it seems like most of the Phillies beat writers are reacting similarly. David Murphy just wrote: "I'm speechless."
Not sure how Worley is "as replacement level as they come" since he's got 4.6 fWAR in two partial seasons, while dealing with an injury. I believe there are plenty of guys who are more replacement level than that.
Revere had a .383 OBP in the minors. He was rushed to the majors in 2011 and I think it's quite probable that his true ability is somewhere above his .319 career MLB OBP thus far. As far as a Juan Pierre comparison, Pierre's lack of power was problematic because he was limited to left field. Revere is a true center fielder and provides far more value on defense than Pierre was capable of.
Calling Trevor May our best pitching prospect is a stretch
I said "arguably," but you're right, that was hyperbole. I should have said "one of our best pitching prospects." I realize he had a down year last year, but I wasn't ready to give up on him, and I certainly had him in my Top 10. He probably had the highest upside of any of our young guys except Martin.
I'll now take a flier on Brandon McCarthy Please. he may take a 1 year deal high AAv to see if he can re-establish his value
Can we trade Schwimer for him?
Don't have to he is an FA….
Can we release him to take his spot? That might be the better route, as it will not guarantee Schwimer (my arch enemy) a spot on a MLB team next year.
Anything that will lead him homeless and penniless would be much appreciated. I'm all ears.
Can we still trade Schwimmer for him?
Hopefully means they're in on a power bat in Right Field.
Young (?)
still isn't good enough yet, especially with the defense that's being lost at third with Young.
Can you give me a bullpen rundown please? I'd like to know if Schwimer is in it.
Get off the Schwim thing, I am just to ask for some board moderation. But luckily for you unless Schwim has an amazing spring he is unlikely to make the team and is a couple of slots down on the call up list.
Whew, I was worried there for a second. Just the thought of watching him pitch is quite nauseating. Thanks for clearing that up.
3 Left handed hitters in a row is not ideal….
Revere has no splits issue, he hits lefties just as well as righties. He sounds like a very smart slap hitter (Juan Pierre junior). I still think there's a good chance that we get Youk, especially since we don't have to save money for Bourn. I don't want to trade any more prospects though so I'm looking for Cody Ross to be signed next. That would retain the #16 pick. Put Ross and Youk into that lineup with Dom and I'm feeling good. Sign Adams and a decent 5th starter also and I'm feeling great.
What about giving me a chance to start in Philadelphia?
I'm not trying to be a Smart A$$ Murray but Youk does nothing for you today or in the future and neither does Ross.
If you want to win a WS or just get to one next year you need a flat out MVP caliber Middle of the Line-up player. Adding old role players to our already old role players does nothing to progress this teams hope of contending and unseating the Nats.
The market is like a pendulum swing and right now its on the other side of where the Phillies are operating. They need to excercise patience and allow it to swing back to them.
I don't disagree with your main point. However, the only way the Phils can win is for Utley and Howard to hit and their 3 aces pitch. The guys making the money have to perform like it. That's reality. Ross and Youk would be solid short term veterans if the stars do their job. If their stars don't do well, they have no shot to win. However, if they do well, Ross and Youk would fit in very well. As you might know from previous writings, I'm very high on Asche but he's not ready yet. In addition we still don't know what to expect from Dom and whether Ruf can handle LF. Ross is a decent, only relatively expensive, seat holder.
Then switch Rollins and Revere. Problem solved.
Law, on his chat, just said he liked the deal for both teams, but a little more for the Twins in the long run.
Naturally, look what KL said about Trevor May back in June…not as flattering…but take him out of Philly pinstripes and wallah…he is again a legitimate top prospect. Boy oh boy!
I'm not as high on the Revere deal as some, but on balance I like it, and if his hitting continues to make strides (plausible), it would turn out to be a very good deal.
But if they don't turn around and use their spare payroll to add a signficant bat, I will be less enthused. At this point, Hamilton aside (and I have m reservations about him) that pretty much leaves Swisher.
All this assumes that the albatross M. Young declines the trade. If not, adding him, aside from making a Swisher deal less likely, substractrs wins from the team.
I agree that the deal makes more sense if they add a corner OF bat like Swisher. But all indications are that they are not very enamored of Swisher. I guess he walks too much? And any move that paves the way for a big, payroll-busting Hamilton contract is a bad one in my opinion. The guy's second half nosedive was scary.
Swisher's lack of defense and repeated October disappearance act make it hard for me to think it is a good idea to give him a big contract and lose the #16 draft pick.
Cody Ross plus the #16 pick vs Swisher? No contest to me plus Ross will only require 3 years.
Here's an honest question, is there anyway we can trade a big time player that is valuable (I'm thinking Hamels) AND Schwimer to a rival GM for a run of the mill prospect.
In exchange for that, they would have a handshake agreement to basically ruin Schwimer's career. Send him back to A ball, make him start on consecutive days, make him drive the team bus, make him be the mascot on off days – stuff like that. Really demoralizing stuff.
Do you think this is possible?
Sigh, I didn't want it to have to come to this. MattWinks, is there anyway to moderate these boards so that we can get rid of the nusance posts and namecalling posts that don't contribute to the conversation. I know you have been busy with all the action lately but man these posts are really starting to bother me.
Not Necessary. I think Schwimmer is perfectly OK with ruinning his career with his pitching ability.
As for starting pitching, I saw the reference to McCarthy, that's an interesting name. I mentioned Correa as a possible. Another name I just thought of is John Lannan. Boy would he love to beat the Nats…. They might try to sign someone to a 2 yr deal.
If John Lannan joined the Phillies, do you think he would find a way to hit himself with a pitch?
He'd probably hit a catcher (Chooch after he's back?) in the face when he's talking to the ump with his mask off.
Carlos Villanueva is also a name to keep an eye on. We don't need a top of the rotation starter, just a 4th or 5th. Then again, I wouldn't say no to Greinke or Sanchez, still. I can dream, can't I?
It is hard to understand why any team would acquire Ender Inciarte and Ben Revere virtually at the same time. Both are speedy outfielders, both bat left-handed and both have virtually no power. That being said, the Phillies gave up a has-been and a never-was and spent virtually nothing while solving the center field problem. Hopefully, the money that was saved can be used to acquire a replacement starter, a set-up man, and a couple of power hitter types. At least one should be right-handed.
Obviously, they didn't know they could work out a deal for Revere when they made the rule 5 selection. Timing….. It only costs $25K if they offer him back.
I think part of the thinking with Inciarte is that he can be a defensive replacement late in games for Ruf so that he isn't completely a waste of a roster spot. If he sticks they will have to get rid of one of the OFs.
Actually based on what where the Phillies are going with position players, I see them making a run at the next tier of starters. Something in the Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Dempster, McCarthy range
I'd hate to see them give too much money or too many years for a back-end guy with Pettibone, Martin, and Morgan not too far away, but the Blanton deal gives me very little hope they can get someone on the cheap.
Phillies have signed Zach Miner DET and Cesar Jimenez SEA both pitchers to minor league deals
I wonder if Jair Jurjens on a one year deal might be worth pursuing.
a 1/2 year wonder….
Don't be surprised if BJ Rosenberg competes for a spot in the rotation or starts the season as the Phillies' long man and then does well enough in spot starts to earn himself an audition. Rosenberg has a cannon for an arm (I was at a game where he hit 98, much to my amazement) and he can maintain velocity for at least 5 or 6 innings. He throws a slider that it is okay. If he can develop a third "show me" pitch he may be a really intriguing option for the Phillies.
Salisbury is saying the Phils' cost on Young, if he accepts, is only $5.5M plus Lindblom and another minor league player lower down in the system. I have a hunch I won't like losing the throw in… I know Young has no range but I'm hoping he at least still has some arm left and he should still have decent hands. I'm not a big fan of Young's but I'm not a big fan of Youkilis either so options aren't aplenty. I am however a big fan of Asche and expect him to start in 2014 so I don't want to spend money for more than a 1 yr deal on anyone. If people were prepared to go with Frandsen/Galvis then adding Young to the mix shouldn't bother them and there really is the chance he has one last good year and hits around 300. Filling CF for only $600K allows for additional moves. Hopefully, it will help us get a decent starting pitcher and one more bat for the OF. I personally don't want to lose the 16th pick for Swisher and would be very happy to add Ross. I've read people's opinions of him but he would be a nice addition to the team if they could get him for a reasonable amount. They might also sign Hairston who I'd also be ok with. The weird thing is though, if Texas gets Upton, who they really want, does Hamilton really end up in Seattle? I can't see that happening. If not, where would he go? Crazy thought but the Phils probably won't sign any OF until the Hamilton situation plays itself out, just in case….
I wonder if Young is also a safety net if Utley cant go a full season. Amaro took a lot of heat for not having adequate back ups last season.
;another minor league player lower down in the system. I have a hunch I won't like losing the throw in…;…please not Roman.
It won't be Roman. I could see it being someone we had high hopes for who hasn't progressed as expected — e.g., Garner, Musser, Walter, Eldemire, etc.
I think it is going to be somebody at the back end of the Top 30, I like Altherr more than most but it could be someone like him. Since it is not going to be a top prospect (this trade for Texas is all about clearing some money and the PR situation), the person I would be worried about is Kelly Dugan is poised for a huge breakout
I'd be ok with losing Altherr, since they have so many players exactly like him right now. I agree that Dugan would sting a bit, but I think they like him and wouldn't trade him that easily.
A player in the most recent draft class is not generally eligible to be traded, I do not believe they would be able to insist on such a player. The player must give permission and it could be arranged that they don't.
Can't be traded within a year of signing, but that's what PTBNLs are for. But Quinn was drafted in 2011, so this is not an issue. (Though I would be shocked if it was Quinn.)
OK, time flies. But, I say since Philly is doing Texas a favor by absorbing some of the contract of Michael Young, promising players should not even be considered and the Rangers should be given the players of Philly's choosing (providing aligning with some MLB or minor league positional fit.
If we give up Dugan or Quinn I'm giving up on RAJ.
I still would prefer Youkilis way way more than Young. Youkilis provides that middle of the order bat (when he plays). Also $10M per year is less destructive than the Free Agent OFs. Young is worse defensively (maybe a lot worse) and would be lucky to be league average as a hitter at 3B. I'd much rather spend extra on Youkilis.
Plus, if they get Youkilis, he bats 3rd and then Phillies can go with their young OF: NixBerry, Revere, Brown (and Ruf in LF instead of Mayberry). None of the Phillies minor leaguers near the majors profile a middle order bats (Gillies, Asche, Galvis, Hernandez) but Phillies have many 4th OF types (Mayberry, Castro, James) so maybe one of them has a decent run.
Not a fan of losing the 16th pick, so not a fan of Swisher. Hamilton is too risky for the huge price tag. Bourn will not happen. Willingham likely unavailable.
How about Lance Berkman? He might not come cheap, but he was quite good for Cards, and maybe he takes less than $10M. True, he is bad against lefties but he is a quality middle order bat.
I think Phillies need to spend FA money on a starter. Halladay may be gone next year. If I am Halladay I do not sign an extension since I'd have no confidence Phillies could compete this year nor near future.
For 2014:
Ruiz will either be much more costly or gone. I hope Joseph is ready.
Utley is the true wildcard. I think they offer him arbitration and see what the market seeks then hope to match. There is no player that can replace him.
Obviously don't agree with some of this, but let me focus upon what I do agree with, much to my own surprise: Youk.
He has downside risk, but with no pick to lose, and money to spend in a market where the number of decent FA options are rapidly decreasing, a two year deal for Youk is starting to look mighty attractive. Certainly infinitely more so that trading for the worst player in baseball. (If you are reading this Mr. Young, just want to remind you that Phillies' fans are a$$holes who will boo you unmercifully.)
Neither player excites me but if Young only costs $5.5M plus Lindblom, and an Altherr let's say, vs $12M or possibly $18M for two years of Youkilis, its a no brainer that Young is a better fit. Youk can't bat 3rd, he hits 240 and can't run a lick. And I don't believe his defense is any better than Young. What he does is work a count and get walks and he plays with fire. These are very good things that we could use but not at this price difference.
I've beaten this topic to death, so I'll keep it uncharacteristically short: unless you think that the Phillies are poised to make two other impact FA signings this season, the relative prices of the two players makes no difference at all. Pay Youk the difference or have the owners pocket it.
And you're selling Youk short in a variety of ways IMO, but I'll just say this: ina down year for Youk, he was still 3 WAR better than Young last year. Again, WAR isn't gospel, but IMO in this case gets it right. And Youk IMO is at least as likely to have a rebound year.
No, go with Galvis/Frandsen if you must, but Young is negative wins. Heck, I'd sooner go with Asche, and you guys KNOW what I think of that option for 2013.
LarryM…why is M.Y. the worst in baseball? He is a consumate team player, a good trooper who play anywhere needed by management. He only needs 200/300 more hits to reach the 2500 Hit Club. Why the hatred for the man?
You know how little weight I place on "intangibles" – at least those which don't eventually manifest themselves tangibly. His positional flexibility doesn't help the 2013 Phillies as far as I can see.
Young was the worst player in baseball last year by WAR. I am not a slave to WAR, but in this case I think they nailed it. One of the worst hitters in baseball last year who played mainly 1B and DH and who was worse than average defensively and as a base runner. Who was worse?
Now, going forward, one can make an argument that he is unlikely to be THAT bad in 2013, and I do sort of buy that. But, at the risk of repeating myself, at this stage of his career he's a guy who:
(1) Is a bad defensive third baseman at best – perhaps much worse than that;
(2) As a hitter, his ISO and BB% have declined for three straight years. Even a rebound from his atrocious 2012 would not likely make him even an average major league hitter.
Let me put it this way: Wiggington was roasted, just roasted on this site last year, and for good reason. I think Young at this stage of his career is basically Wiggington. Atrocious third base defense, some positional flexibility but best suited defensively to first base at this stage of his career, and a well below average hitter. Young still has significantly better contact skills, but, at this stage of his career, has less power and BB skills than Wigginton.
You know who had a substantially better ISO than Young last year? Well, a LOT of players, but one of them was Freddie Galvis. Kevin Frandsen had a better ISO. Young was closer to Michael Martinez in ISO than he was to Galvis.
You know, a lot of people around here are down on acquiring veteran players, and sometimes that prejudice drives me crazy. But Young is the epitome of the kind of older player you avoid.
ok…thank you…you summed it up pretty good on Michael Young.
Depending upon whether and how far over the luxury tax threshold the Phillies are willing to go:
With Revere a cheap center field option, they still have somewhere between 25 and 40 million to spend. Obviously future years need to be taken into account, but payroll obligations fall dramatically after 2013 (granted there are spots to fill).
This really gets back to what I said about payroll efficiency – OF COURSE it's important, but there's no bonus points for banking an extra 30 to 40 million. Some people on this board don't seem to want to see the Phillies spend that money. At the risk of repeating myself, that strategy makes sense only if you believe that future season's FA market will be better – either in the sense of talent available, or the market price for free agents. Both are dubious expectations.
This Phillies team , even assuming good health, is not a 90 win team. If they get a little lucky, they could snag a wild card sort. Adding a quality FA or 3 – and they have the money to do it – could add 5 wins and put them well into the wild card race at least.
Now, they still have to be smart signs; I don't want to pay Swisher 5/100 and cripple the team's payroll for the next few years. But there are still players out there who could help. Even Hamilton at the right price.
I'm one of those people who says its waste of money to get the Youks and the Swishers and the Ross's in here. I'd be willing to gamble that Brown gives you everything that Swisher would. Frandesen/Galvis a more consistent line over the whole season. Granted Youks peaks would probably be higher than that tandem at certain points but overall he most likely will break down. At the end his line will look much like it did last year. I don't think its smart to spend $12 Mil for .236/336/745 when Frandsen gave you 338/383/845. Now I'll be the first to say Frandsen is not going to ever put up that line again but I'll bet you your favorite cheese steak its better or as good as 236/336/745
Ross-nice player but not the caliber of player to get me off my own home grown talent. I'll gamble on Ruf hitting more HR's and putting up a much higher OPS and live with the defense.
So no they don't get points for carrying 30-40 million but I havent seen you acknowldege having that financial flexibility leaves room for a big trade mid season. And the more money you can absorb the less you need to give up. Or maybe somebody wants Howard and the more you can pay the more you get back.
There are all kinds of players out there that could move if you're in the race. Are you at all optimistic that
Halladay is back to normal
Howard is back to normal
Utley is back to normal
I'm not and this is just my opinion but you're pissing into the wind with these names. they are nice players for a team with a bonified 3/4 hitter but without a waste of cold hard $.
You might be better served to sure up your rotation with a Lohse or a Jackson on a 3 year deal because they could become trade assets at the deadline if you're out of it again. Hamilton is a different story but I don't think its realistic to have both he and Howard in the same line-up.
With good health this team absolutely could be a 90 win team. I'm not sure they'll be totally healthy, in fact i have serious doubts about hallday but if you told he was healthy and Utley was healthy, I'll take our chances with a few more pieces. I'd be happy with Young at 3B, Ross in the OF, Correa or Lannan in the rotation, and Adams in the pen. With good health and those pieces and I'll take my chances. They'll also still have some money left for a mid season trade which I expect they'd want to do. As I expected, now that Hamilton might go cheap to somebody, the Yanks and Red sox have jumped in. If nothing else, they'll both make sure he doesn't do cheap to the other. Swisher is definitely better than Ross but Ross will come cheaper and not cost the pick which I want to retain.
I obviously disagree with many of the specifics of the responses (e.g., Young at third base will probably cost us 2 wins compared to Galvis/Frandsen and 3 to 4 wins compared to Youk, but I think you guys are missing my larger point. Setting aside the pick for Swisher, there just is no downside to these moves. Certainly for this year, probably down the road. The payroll situation is in flux, but unless you believe that the FA market is going to get better in future years, a dubious assumption, shying away from these guys is more about aesthetics than anything else. The money is and will be there. Yes Swisher blocks Ruf – not Brown who will get his chance regardless – but I don't buy Ruf as being adequate defensively anyway.
A Youk contract especially has zero downside, Why NOT sign him at this point for a reasonably priced 2 year deal? IT'S NOT YOUR MONEY. I'm not the biggest fan, but he is SO much better than Young, and as a practical matter cheaper in a meaningful sense – sure the contract is higher, but not to the point of foreclosing other moves, and he won't cost us a prospect. I can't stress this enough – given the current payroll situation, from a competitive perspective, unless they surprise up with a Hamilton or Greinke signing, Youk is effectively FREE – that money won't be spent elsewhere, it's just more money in the owner's pockets.
Swisher is a somewhat different story. If you really think Ruf is the real deal, or place a tremendous value on the pick we would lose, I can understand why you would be against the deal. And he won't come as cheaply as Youk.
But the thing is, Swisher is REALLY GOOD. He would instantly become easily the second best Phillies position player behind Utley, ahead of Rollins. The current line up is a sea of mediocrity once you get past Utley and Rollins and maybe Ruiz. The team as currently constituted is going to score runs at a below average rate, maybe significantly below average.
And while Swisher would place some constraints on payroll in future years (not 2013 where there is money to burn), if we get him at a decent value then it's worth it. I wouldn't pay 5/100 or anything like it, but I'm getting a sense that Swisher might just be the guy this year that ends up waiting too long to sign and settles for a real bargain, maybe 3/50. Perhaps Ia m kidding myself, but if I'm right, I want the Phillies to be the team to snap him up.
LOL Because I would rather watch and see what Ruf can do, I'd rather watch Galvis over a washed up Youk.
Correct me if I'm wrong but we are a prospect forum right?
DMAR, that is at one level a fine response, but as I said – and you have just confirmed :) – it's more about aesthetics than winning. I love following prospects too, but ultimately care more about winning than watching our prospects in the major league. I think Swisher/Youk versus Ruf/Galvis probably is an extra 4 wins. That's the bottom line for me.
In fairness, and this applies to LF rather than third base, because no one claims that Frandsen or Galvis is the long term option there, I can understand the preference for Ruf from a long term winning perspective if you really think he can become an adequate fielder in left field.
'I think Swisher/Youk versus Ruf/Galvis probably is an extra 4 wins' –thats only 2 1/2 %. Could be a bit more then that.
There are times your posts make me scratch my head. You've advocated in the last days for blowing up the team and then rail against people who want to hold back 30-40 M in salary. Various times you've concurred with those who note this is a mediocre free agent market and I believe you've acknowledged next year figures to be no better. How do you square all these thoughts, these pieces that don't fit together?
Jim Bowden, former GM, of ESPN.com says Swisher can get 4 years at 60 million , which is what B. J. Upton got with one less year. 3/50 as above is even higher. Plus the 16th pick in Rule 4 draft goes up in smoke. No B. J. Upton for 5 years , why Swisher for same annual rate or higher?
(1) Because Swisher is probably a bit better than Upton.
(2) Because 3 or 4 years carries less risk than 5 years.
(3) Because the Upton deal was not a bad deal.
I think Swisher's price is falling by the day and he will be the FA bargain of the year. Add the facts that (I can't stress this enough) the money otherwise likely will stay in the owner's pockets, and that Swisher is the one impact bat left besides Hamilton, and it is a no brainer. 6/60, 5/50, anything in that range is an easy, easy call.
Swisher has been worth about 75 million over the past 4 years. He will suffer some age related decline, so I'm not saying that he'll be a bargain at those prices. But while bargains are great, the nature of the FA market is such that, especially for big market teams, signing a borderline star level player without overpaying is a good deal. And even more so for the Phillies this year, given needs/available players/budget.
I didn't peg you to be that guy harping on ownership about spending $. Cheese and Crackers they have been one of the highest spending teams the past 4 seasons.
I harp on it when it is relevant. In past seasons it hasn't been as the team has been quite aggressive in terms of payroll. Assume that the Phillies add Young and no one else. Their payroll will be over 20 million less than last year.
But it isn't a matter of the team being "cheap" – it's simply a matter of the money being THERE, so why not spend it if it helps the team?
Dave Cameron is on sort of a negative roll IMO on fangraphs lately, He follows up his post trashing the Revere trade with a post advocating the Young trade. (Of course the latter may prove the really DOES hate the Phillies. :))
But his justification for the trade is more revealing than he realizes. He pegs Young as likely to rebound to roughly a 1 WAR player. Maybe so. But, while neither Frandsen or Galvis are long term solutions, I think between them 1 WAR is if anything a conservative estimate.
Of course Youk would be better also IMO, but I can understand the desire to put a young guy in there (well, Galvis is young anyway). But Young? Sorry, the best arguments for him just solidify my distaste. I mean, if the BEST case you can make for Young is that he is a one WAR player …
Swisher is a really good player that is not my contention. He would have helped us 09-10-11. I think the 13 team has to many questions in the players they rely on but let's say Halladay Utley and Howard all bounce back but Ruf and or Brown fail miserably.
Having payroll allows you to go out and get a high priced replacement to make the final run. Think back to when the Yankee's took Abreu off our hands they assumed all the money he was owed and we got nothing in return in terms of prospects.
Those opportunities exist in almost every season.
And the team would have to give up young talent, something you especially would be against I would think.
DMAR, you believe in Ruf to a much greater extent than I do. That's reason enough to be against signing Swisher. Unless he ends up costing a lot more than predicted, that seems to me to be the only really good argument against the signing.
Watching franchen last year, he blew two games with his glove in september alone.just dont trust this guy as a everyday third basemen.
It is hard to believe that he was a starting SS before he tore his achilles. His hands don't seem smooth enough. You have to remember though that he hadn't played any 3B last year in the minors so he was figuring it out as he went. He'll be better there next year after practicing there in ST.
What would be so bad about RufNix in LF and BrownBerry in RF? Everyone keeps saying those platoons are no good. Whats so bad about 260 22/80 in left in and 260 18/70 in right? People are acting like the Phils have to have a lineup like 2008. Who even has that anymore? Tex and maybe the Gnats? What else are the Phils gonna do?
I think the only thing fans can do is dream about getting Headley, Beltre, or Ramirez somehow. There is nothing else this team can do. It's probably best to hope for a midseason trade for an OF and get a vet BP arm in FA. The Phils hands are tied it seems. At best, they make it as a WC next season and they absolutely have to start thinking about the future even more now. What a tough offseason.
I think your point about corner outfield platoons is a good one, and may be what we see next year. But the problem is the lack of production in other positions. The team obviously won't see the same production in CF, 2B, or 1B that we had in 2008. Is the pitching good enough to get by? That's why if they go the platoon route, I'd really like to see them add another starter and a solid BP piece, and I think they will, Halladay's return to form is important obviously
CF production…..let it play out. Revere's OBP keeps getting better….even from his MiLB days. His runs scored could be better then you think.
That's what I was saying about lack of production at other positions. It doesn't make sense to me to get anybody unless its one of the top tier 3rd basemen now that they got a decent CF. Maybe Ramirez would end up being available at the trade deadline?
I can't believe they want MYoung so bad. I like the point from above that Frandsen/ Galvis is pretty much the same if not better. Does anyone know if MYoung is a good baserunner? It would be nice to see one of his 315/360 years in the 2 hole if hes a good baserunner. I highly doubt it though at his age.
If Youk is supposedly better than Young and Swisher is so much better than Ross, then what stats are you assuming to conclude this? To me, Swisher is 28/90 and Ross is 22/80, and Youk is 230/15/60 and Young could be 290/10/60. Swisher wants big money and years and Ross will take less and Youk wants two years while Young is one. The reality is that Youk would only come here if he's willing to do a one year deal and the Yanks offered him $12M for a year already. Youk knows the Phils want Asche to start the following year and he already lived through that with the Red Sox. My guess is that Young won't accept the trade anyway. Btw to say that Young is 4 wins less than Galvis just didn't ring true to me. One can't hit and one can't field… I'll trust the professionals to make the right decision…
Ludwick resigned with the Reds but there was a mystery team in on him at the end. I'll bet it was the Phils.
My crystal ball fired up this morning without my having to turn it on. Here's what it reported:
The Rangers are moving towards a Zack Greinke signing and a Justin Upton trade. At times perception becomes reality and the perception approaching reality is that Hamilton takes a back seat to the Greinke situation in the minds of the Rangers. Hard to argue otherwise. The only way that Hamilton returns to Texas is if the Dodgers come in with a late better offer on Greinke. Here's what you can expect.
1. Greinke signs in Texas
2. Rangers trade Andrus to the Dbacks for Upton in a deal with additional players moving in each direction.
3. Mariners renew offer on Hamilton.
4. Big market team (Yankees, Red Sox, Phils in that order of likelihood) comes out of the woodwork and signs Hamilton to a 4-year deal with a fifth year option.
5. Mariners up offer to Swisher and sign him for 4-5 years.
6. Either Angels or Dodgers trade for Dickey.
Watch for it! (Remember the term "consolation prize" in connection with this off-season).
I could see all of this happening.
Looks like Young is all but on his way to Philly. We've now filled holes in center and third base though at the expense of a hole in the rotation.
Revere is a nice pickup and while I think we gave up a lot to acquire him, the loss is truly minimal. Young is a considerable offensive upgrade in spite of a down year last season. And while he leaves something to be desired defensively, he's no worse than Frandsen and will likely be targeted for a late-inning defensive replacement in the form of Galvis. To say Young is the worst player in the majors is downright ludicrous. The worst "third baseman" last season? Debatable.
I'd contend that an upgrade in the rotation (really liking E.Jackson) when coupled with the Revere and Young acquisitions would give me some promise. Big caveat here, without an experienced big arm reliever to fill the 8th inning role, I'd look at this off-season as a colossal failure. It could be argued that there is no greater need than an 8th inning arm out of the pen; or at least I would make that argument. Bring on Mike Adams
Well, as somebody said above, looks like Michael Young is coming aboard. All of the naysaying can be mitigated by the fact that I don't believe he will be kept in there come Hell or High Water, but they will, in fact, augment Young with Frandsen and Galvis, in a sort of three-headed-monster configuration. Like in the NFL when the Los Angeles Rams first started the shotgun offense, they had a "quarterback" – one strictly for running- one strictly for passing- and a 3rd guy who did a little bit of both. Then they rotated them alot. I believe this can work in exactly the same way.
Some say Young could bounce back offensively. Even the guy on Fangraphs believes it. Just read the article.. And I want to believe the defensive deficiencies are overblown. Much like a parlor game where a message is whispered into someone's ear and passed around the room. It gets worse as it goes along. And- another Wigginton? Did Ty Wigginton begin his career as a starting ShortStop ? I don't think so.
And, I might add, as far as I am concerned , maybe even in reality, this can ring the curtain down on offensive additions to next season's Phillies roster. My estimate at the start of the offseason was that 38 million was available. Scratch off the supposed 6 million for Young and a 1/2 million for Revere, that takes it to 31 1/2. I neglected to X out the 10 million or so in benefits, so that take it to 21 1/2. Given the arguable need for a starter, and, I say, 2 middle relievers. I say add 3 prospective starters at around 7 million per year average for each of them, or if they can go less overall and they might be able to, do so. Then it can be set up, and announce this right off, that the one who shows most in ST can be the starter and the other 2 can be middle relief. Preferred would be starters who have been relievers before. My choices would be, Carlos Villenueva, Brett Myers , and Derek Lowe. Then the 1/2 million or more left over can go to Dave $ Montgomery.
What ludwick got to sign with his number. is a nice cheap option for any team. why wouldnt the phillies go after someone like him. even three years 22 would have been okay.a lot less than victorino and imo, at this stage a better player.
Does anyone know if MYoung is a good baserunner?
Young deal done, Castro and DeFratus? Oh boy
Evan Grant says Young will approve pending financial issues clearing up (maybe he wants a little extra due to now having to pay state income tax). Says players believed to be Josh Lindblom and Lisalverto Bonilla.
Bonilla being included would be a crime. We're doing the Rangers a FAVOR for christ sakes
A one year rental and we give up a nice prospect, plus a veteran relief pitcher, comeon ruben, you just love to give up young prospects, and over paid.
Losing Bonilla is disappointing, but like the Revere deal, Phillies are trading from a position of strength here. There are are a lot of good young arms in the upper levels of the minors, and Bonilla got a lot of good buzz while only pitching a few innings above A-ball. We often complain about selling low on prospects, so, here's RAJ selling high.
Lindblom is a flyball pitcher whose repertoire made no sense at CBP. Won't miss him.
I dont mind trading Bonilla, but not for a bag of bones that we hope can squeeze out one more replacement level season.
Except the kicker here is the Phillies needed Revere. They didn't need Young. He could quite possibly be a below average player now giving up any legit prospects when you're doing the other team a huge favor is a joke. Bonilla has some pretty devastating stuff and is certainly not someone I'd give up for Young. Maybe 5 years ago…
I disagree. Frandsen and Galvis aren't big league regulars. Young is, or was. He might be done, but six million and a prospect is worth the chance to find out if he isn't. It's rare for me to cite Dave Cameron, but I think he nailed the risk assessment in this deal.
Or you know they could have just signed someone else that wouldn't have cost a prospect. Polanco was worth more than Young last year.
Chris, how were going to fill our other two needs if we spend 13-15 million on Kevin Youkilis? I agree that Michael Young is not quite what he was but he is half the price of Youkilis and allows the Phillies to sign a Free Agent Setup Reliever(s) and a #5 FA pitcher. I don't see them signing a RH outfielder unless Darin Ruf has a bad Spring Training. This trade benefits both teams even thouh Bonilla could be a help to Texas.
I think Galvis could be. Lots of all-glove middle infield types learn to hit at an acceptable level as they mature.
Absolutely. I look forward to watching Galvis develop over the next several years. But this is a move for 2013, the last season before Chase Utley and Roy Halladay become free agents, before Charlie Manuel's contract ends, and before Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard are another year into their thirties. Like it or not, this is a veteran team trying to win a World Series. Starting Freddy Galvis all year and hoping he turns into an acceptable hitter is not the path to doing so.
Starting Michael Young and hoping he gives you 1 WAR isn't a recipe for winning either….
Hoping on Galvis is sillier than hoping on 1 war from Michael Young. Galvis couldn't hit wheile he was on PEDs. He isn't going to be any better next year.
We don't need Galvis to hit to be able to have value though. Galvis in 58 games was worth .6 WAR. MY over a full season was worth like -2. If he can't hit he's going to be in the negatives. He has no secondary skills.
MLBTR implies the financial hold-up may be he wants a payoff for waiving the no-trade clause.
I guess 16 million isn't enough for him for next season. If the deal any extra money from Philly they should pull out. Texas, which gets all the financial benefits if they want to kick in, that's on them. Or maybe this is an elaborate ruse in order to seem like he wants to play as a regular while still effectively turning down the deal.
Also what is this BS about him wanting financial compensation. That sure as heck better not be costing the Phillies any extra. Just don't trade for the guy.
Or, on the other hand, MLBTR says the deal is now done and Young got 1.2 million in extra benefits, from who, I don't know.
I understand the $1.2 M compensates for the higher taxes he incurs in Pennsylvania so it preserves the money in his old offer and doesn't represent a windfall to Young. It's not a basis to gripe aside from whether you like the trade.
It's a basis for me to gripe, because most of the other states have state income tax and some have no choice but to pay it , and at an income of less than 16 million per season. Just because some cow punchers and hillbillies don't have it there is no reason for other states to take up and make up the difference in any situation. However, as I read more, I see that Texas paid it, so I don't care.
The Phillies have acquired Michael Young from the Rangers according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). Young will receive $1.2MM in benefits in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause, but Nightengale says (on Twitter) he told the Phillies he did not want an extension.
I'm pissed about losing Bonilla.
So dumb. Not only could he actually be a starter he's got pretty great stuff even if he ends up just a reliever. He could be a pretty solid guy. Who is going to produce more WAR for the rest of his career than Young will give the Phillies. The arm should have been like Tim Kennely.
Ruben Amaro should change his name to Ruin Tomorrow.
stand in line…..cannot Ruben for once do what we want!
And we are the experts not the professionals!
This is like the equivalent of Signing Kwame Brown to a 2-year deal or Spencer Hawes despite neither of them being all that great.
With cheap solutions at 3B and CF, there is PLENTY of money to go upgrade the corners. I'm guessing this is our lineup after making this trade…..
1 Rollins SS
2 Utley 2B
3 Hamilton LF
4 Young 3B
5 Howard 1B
6 Ruiz C
7 Revere CF
8 Brown RF
9 Hamels P
Michael Young batting 4th is a joke. He had a sub .700 OPS last year and lacks power at this point in his career
He did OPS over .800 in September. There is some slight hope there was an underlying injury.
Now, with the 6 million going to Young, I still figure that they got 21 1/2 million to play around with. Hamilton would take that alone. I still prefer 3 moderately priced Starter/Middle relievers and then it is finished.
The lineup right now has young batting second, with revere leading off, rollins hitting fifth if they dont get corner outfielder, young doesnt want a extension, who said ruben would have given him one? the guy was not imo. getting another year from us. he is a one year rental. now if he helps them win a pennant that is different. then we talk about another year or two. man right now if they sign a hamilton i love there potential lineup. but i am dreaming. i like revere, he is a near 300 hitter with speed. love that at top of lineup.
roccom…again you failed to clear this with Charlie and JRoll. They are not going to be very happy.
This outrage over losing Lisa Bonilla is silly. There is nobody here who even has him ranked in the Organization top 10.
Why on earth would the Rangers pay 10 million dollars of the guy's salary, if the Phillies were going to give back players we think have zero value? For a pitcher like Schwimer, maybe they only pay 5 million. For a pitcher like Pettibone, maybe they pay all 16m of his salary. The other team has to get something in a trade. Why is this so hard to understand, everytime the Phillies get rid of a minor leaguer? Who is going to trade for a minor leaguer with NO value or upside?
They already got Lindblom. He had value. The Phillies are taking salary off the Rangers hands- that's more value. Michael Young has very little value, based on his performance last year.
If Lindblom had value, there would be complaining about losing him… but there isn't any. If the Phillies only offer Lindblom, Texas does not pay the guys salary. If Texas wanted to get nothing in return, they could have just worked out a buyout, and cut the guy. Bonilla was basically sold for 10 million.
Amaro can't trade a minor leaguer, unless the guy is an abject failure, without getting blasted. Even guys who aren't top10-15 are considered untouchable.
Agree VOR. Young fills a need if even for only one year. He wasn't going to be had for nothing and the more salary the Rangers took on, the more they should expect in return as far as prospects are concerned. There were limited options for the Phils at 3b and they managed to fill a need with very little in terms of lost prospects. I love Bonilla but we're talking about a relief pitcher who hasn't pitched an inning above AA.
I wouldn't say that I'm thrilled with Young but I'd like to think he'd be reinvigorated somewhat after a tumultuous last couple of seasons in Texas. Cross another item off our off-season 'to do' list. Now go get an 8th inning arm
VOR, I guess some people forget what the purpose of a farm/minor league system is for. It does not help the Phillies when they struggle and the minor league teams thrive. For the Phillies not to tap their farm system to improve when they can is silly.
Looks to me like Phils are done with the lineup and they are valuing obp highly. Last years team obp was 317. Did I find something here? You could project a 330 obp somewhat easily this year I think. Hopefully some of the players drive in more runs than they are normally capable of. The everyday lineup only projects to 600 rbi.
Revere, Young, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Brown, Ruf.
I don't like Young at all if he's not a good baserunner and a horrible defender. He should hit well at least. He hits very well from the 2 hole. People look at his numbers from last year and don't realize the rangers used him in the 5 and 6 hole a lot.
Earlier today, the Phillies finalized their trade for Michael Young, solving their third base problem in an offseason where there were few options on the open market. One baseball source believes that the Phillies aren't done yet and are still primed to do something "big", which could be anything from pursuing Josh Hamilton to a late Zack Greinke run to a trade for an outfielder, tweets Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.
Revere told the media that Ruben had told him that the Phils had other big moves planned.
Was Hamilton offered arbitration?
The Phils have Valle and another young BP arm to go get their vet BP arm. Who might it be? Anybody that comps well to Lopez? I would have loved that trade.
Longtime viewer, love the website. How about Kelvin Herrera or Aaron Crow from the Royals. Young and under team control for 4 more years. Give them Valle, Schwimmer, and C. Hernandez/Fransden. We could take Luke Hochevar and his 5+ mil. salary off their hands to make it work. Hochevar could be our 5th starter–young, decent stuff, but with terrible results so far.
Both look interesting on paper but they seem to be a bit too much like what we already have in abundance. Young arms with limited track records. Both Amaro and Manuel like older guys for the 8th inning rule for better or worse (usually worse). That is how we end up with the Contraras' and Qualls'
I don't think they need any of those guys (Royals). They have one of the top young catchers and players and more on the way, and Moustakos at 3B and more on the way, and they got Middle Infielders and 1st round picks behind them. Schwimer- I think he'd be assigned to the minors for them. Hochevar- just looking at the numbers I don't know if he could even produce a win in around half the games he started. Maybe if the Phillies took Hochevar and Jeff Francoeur and gave up a promising middle reliever and Domo Brown or somebody they could get a better middle reliever and a little something else, maybe.
Royals are going for it this year (as dumb as that may sound), they make up for a poor starting pitching staff by having the best young bullpen in the majors (none of the members of their end of the year bullpen were even arb eligible). Rather than trying to predict who else has a good young reliever the Phillies should be identifying which of their arms can be successful.
There are a number of high end free agent relievers still on the market. While attention has been paid to Michael Bourn's situation as the market for center fielders dries up, there is a risk that the market will dry up on relievers who may end up signing for less than they received before .I'm not sure what the Phils could get in trade that's better than what's available through free agency. Some of these guys (with past salaries in parentheses) are:
Rafael Soriano (($11 M), Jose Valverde ($9 M), Brian Wilson ($8.5 M), and Francisco Rodriguez ($ 8 M). Brian Wilson is the only one of these that makes sense for the Phils as he comes off surgery and tries to restore value. Then there are the cheaper Mike Adams and Carlos Villanueva, either of whom I think would be good signings.
I don't want Wilson or any of the "established closers", there is a chance that Stutes, Bastardo, Aumont, or DeFratus emerges as a dominant set up man and the closers job is Papelbons. This means you want a guy who doesn't have the ego about his role and can pitch in any situation needed (it isn't so much the 8th inning that is needed as much as a guy you could just bring when you need a reliable reliever regardless of inning)
Brian Wilson would make the most sense, but I personally find him annoying. I wouldn't cry over it if he goes somewhere else. He's the Lady Gaga of sports.
Hmm that would have been interesting. I wonder who the prospects were.
I was hoping they'd make a play for Cabrera. But if Ruben turned the deal down because the cost in prospects was too steep, you know it must have been ridiculous.
Doesn't say that Amaro turned down the deal, just that they discussed a deal that included Worley and 2 prospects. I'm guessing it was the Indians who weren't interested based on what been their asking price from other teams.
Well, presumably at some point during discussions the Indians' GM said "this is what we're looking for" and Ruben didn't want to pay that price. Even if they didn't get down to specifics, Rube had to decide at some point that it wasn't worth it. Unless the Phils just didn't have a type of prospect that the Indians were looking for.
White Sox may be interested in dealing Dayan Viciedo. Corner OF RH power guy who Ks often but is young with strength. Ruf or Brown would have to go however.
According to Anthony Gargano during his interview with a Dallas sports writer regarding Josh Hamilton. According to Gargano, Hamilton is now holding out for a 5 year deal.
Hamilton sees himself as slightly older than the average free agent and sees this contract as perhaps his only chance to cash in on free agency.
According to the Dallas writer, Michael Young was responsible for coaxing Hamilton into playing a lot more games than he would otherwise have played. Apparently Hamilton always thinks there's something wrong with him and Young would goad or cajole Hamilton into playing as many as 30 more games a season. The writer says Hamilton is his own guy, has a good rapport with Young but is not real close to any of his teammates.
Asked to comment on how Hamilton would do in a Philadelphia fan environment, he said Hamilton is largely oblivious to the fans and would smile occasionally if booed in Texas following an 0-4 performance. He compared him in that regard to Andruw Jones who seemed to smile inappropriately at the wrong times.
The Rangers apparently still see themselves in play for both Hamilton and Justin Upton. According to the writer, Upton has problems with Arizona manager Kirk Gibson and all is not well in Phoenix.
Another thing, Yong said his biggest regret was not having a good attitude when it came from moving from shortstop to third base. He felt his attitude got in the way of his adjustment. Young apparently learned a lot from watching how Adrian Beltre prepares himself to play third each day.
The writer sees Young as best suited to bat second in the order with his bat control. The writer thought Hamilton could hit 55 homers in a season if he played half his games at CBP. Said Hamilton is great at taking pitches to the opposite field with power..
Messed up the top of this. According to Gargano, the Phils have offered Hamilton $80 M for three years.
I like the idea of a huge AAV for Hamilton and less years. I wouldn't even mind a 3 for 90 if it got a shorter deal done.
I agree with that. I'd also give him a vesting/mutual option for a fourth year if the AAV is lower. But I wouldn't risk the 5th year unless it's for under $10m.
where is Gargano's report?
Gargano is a radio broadcaster on WIP in Philly. I imagine that you can pick up his program today on a webcast.
Given the length of the Fielder and Pujols contracts, Hamilton even at 4-5 years seems a manageable risk. If he's going off the wagon, it won't take him 4-5 years for that to happen.
I would think most teams would insist on a pretty strict "character" clause that voids the deal if he's caught using.
Just give me Cody Ross and his 17/19 HRs.
John Heyman reported that the Phils talked to the Cubs about trading Domonic Brown for Alfonso Soriano.
I read the same thing but that can't be accurate. It also stated that the Cubs were 'willing' to absorb $10mm of his remaining contract if they received promising prospects in return. Say What ?!?
Agree with catch; wouldn't take Soriano for free
What. If this trade goes down I might have to rage quit. I mean the Cubs should have been immediately hung up on. Why would you give up Dom Brown to take on Soriano's terrible skills and salary. No thank you.
In light of the phils apparent offer to hamilton, I was wondering if some guys could chime in on what are the best options for the phils and which side would be very willing to take these.
1)3 x 27m=81mil
2)3 x 26 (5 mil buyout)
3)4 x 24m=96 mil
4)5x 22=110 mil
5)6 x 20=120mil
6)7 x18=126
I think best for josh would be 4,5. Best for phils 1,3?I'm guessing 1 will be the overwhelming favorite but am very interested to know others thoughts
I don't think your 5) and 6) are on anybody's table. $80 M for 3 years surprises me since I didn't think the Phils were prepared to offer more than Ryan Howard money ($25 M) annually. If that offer was legitimate, then it really opens up your options 1-4. 3) followed by 2), then 4) and 1) is my order of preference. If Hamilton breaks down over the course of a 4-5 year deal, then like a typical fan I'll turn on Amaro in a heartbeat but without the vehemence that I reserve for Amaro's signing the Ryan Howard extension.
Everyone is going to be totally in stitches when, at the end of this postseason, Ruben Amaro calls a press conference to go over his moves and ends by saying, "We call it … the Aristocrats!"
That's awesome.
Wow Domonic Brown for Soriano with all but $10M of his salary paid for two years…interesting.
Seems like such a stupid trade – that locks in Soriano to LF for two years, essentially blocking Ruf from playing, Dom goes in the trade, and that leaves a Mayberry / Nix platoon in RF.
Would much rather have Dom and sign Cody at $7M per year than Soriano at $5M per year, lose Dom, and block Ruf.
The soriano for brown, is nuts, unless the phillies feel .that brown is a bust. even then, its a tough sell to the public, after all the years of buildup,on brown,from the front office.
Why not just refuse to play defense at all? Maybe the front office wasn't, watching last year
sorry New kindle
Can GM's trade themselves?
While listening to the Gargano interview IM listed above, I kept getting the feeling that Charlie does not care for Brown at all. I got the impression that Charlie is way higher on Ruf than Dom. And when I heard about the Brown rumor the first thing that came to mind was this may be contingent on them signing Hamilton. Think about it. If you sign Hamilton and with Revere you have 2 lefty OF for the next 4ish years. Can you have an OF with all left handed hitters? If they are good enough hitters sure, but when you look at 3B after this year Asche if he is ready is another left hander leaving you with 2 switch hitters and a right handed Catcher. Unfortunately once again Brown is being squeezed out of this lineup because he is left handed and has not put up above average numbers in his time in the majors.
And just to clarify I want Brown to play everyday. I feel when one looks at the circumstances surrounding his career the significant difference in numbers can be explained.
Ruben would have to be a fool to trade Brown even up for Soriano, talks had to include another Cub prospect in the move…no GM in their right mind would do that trade even up, even with the cash incentives. Ruben cannot be that gullible or desperate.
You should not believe everything you read especially by Jon Heyman.
It kind of angers me that Dom has never really had his shot and that the organization keeps toying with him, surprised he has been so calm about this situation.
I've never understood the assertion by RAJ and Charlie that a contending team can't develop a young player.
Well, Don't think the Soriano for Domo Brown trade is all that terrible. I would not do that for Soriano, mainly because he is said to be 37. But the Domo Brown for Right Handed power hitter is sniffin' down the right trail. I recall some derided the proposal made early in the offseason of Domo Brown for Corey Hart, doesn't look so bad now, eh? They are getting saddled with too many Left Handed Hitters, It's just that simple. The object is supposed to be to win a championship, and history shows (though not a stats person and don't believe what history shows) that teams with large numbers of Left Handed Hitters can be neutralized by assortments of Left Handed Pitchers and others. I , also do not believe either of these moves would preclude Ruf starting in the OF, as Ruben, himself, said that reports say that Ruf could play RF, and a lot of the stats people might overstate just what is required to play RF. It is not as much.
As for Hamilton, I have seen nothing that says Philly will massively exceed the Luxury Tax level. If the report by WIP's Gargano (by way of Macnow) is correct that would be a given. I believe what Philly has left is around 21 1/2 million. I did not compute, exactly, Gargano's numbers because somehow think this is unlikely, but it looks like it might be fairly close to 30 million a year. Plus it is said they also wish to acquire another starter, one or two bullpen guys , and maybe even another OF. Financially, don't see it.
As for the risk of Hamilton, I know from occasional watching of Dr. Drew, that though Hamilton may no longer be addicted to hard drugs, I read that he occasionally consumes alcohol , chaws tobacco, takes legal drugs, etc, , and who knows what else. So, given this , still an addict, and has a lot more work to do, and might be an accident waiting to happen… I say no.
Does anybody else have an opinion on the viability of Hamilton going to Seattle when Washington state has just decriminalized marijuana?
This is a joke, right?
Hamilton has his issues as evidenced by his problems with high caffeine beverages like energy drinks this past season. But to speculate on his past and future issues would be a dangerous and stupid thing to do because we know almost nothing about Hamilton or is issues. Lets keep the discussion on Hamilton to things like his declining skills or injury history rather than speculation on an issue that we know nothing about.
I disagree. HIs personal issues are a prime reason not to be big $/years on him. He is the mental equivalent of a guy who is currently playing well, but has had two surgeries to each of his knees. Another blowout can happen at any time and if it happens, the team will look back and know that they ignored plenty of red flags. Betting $100+ mill on one player is a big deal for any team, even one that lives at the luxury cap. In the past, the Phillies have focused on quality character guys and guys they thought were in good physical health in making these mega-commitments. It's true that Hamels had past issues, but the Phillies have seen him daily for years and understand how he ticks. They really don't have that knowledge of Hamilton. Texas does, and they haven't been quick to resign him.
Ok so this report could be totally bogus at which point this becomes silly conversation. Let me just say that at the time I thought RAJ was going to be an excellent GM. A Bi-Lingual Stanford grad with some playing experience, bounced around to a few teams mentored by one of the greats etc…
All GM's fairly are judged in hind sight and it should be fully expected there will be some wins and some losses. If those even out and the club is making the playoffs and contending the GM gets a positive grade but it's up to us to keep track of the players and who they belong to as there is always carry over from one GM to the next.
Now that we are 4 years into the RAJ regime we should start to see some impact from his players, guys he has his stamp on, guys he has extended to deals and so on.
I'm looking at both the MLB Roster and the system. I accept if we are going to NLCS and WS the system might be a little light. My fear is that RAJ doesn't have a feel for windows and he doesn't anticipate areas of weakness. And what I see now is young players going out for old players, and old players going out for young players that have not impacted the big club.
Now there is still a chance for Aumont, Gillies, Martin, Joseph and there are some drafted players to like. The point for me is I don't like what I perceive is the current direction. It seems random, it seems to be a waste resources.
The report was bogus and the young guys will get their chances in Spring Training.
I don't understand the idea that Brown should be bumped and Ruf should be kept (not necessarily saying that is from this site). Yes there is a handedness difference but is that really worth a downgrade in player. I may rile up all of the Ruf supporters, but Brown is the hands down better player and prospect. If we look at defense, despite the crap Brown has gotten he is way better than Ruf will ever be in the field, he has good range (the routes are still a work in progress, though they are better on pure reaction plays) and his arm is at least 2 grades better than Ruf. At the plate there has been a ton of hype around Ruf and the season he had in 2012 but lets compare it to Brown's breakout 2010 (when Brown was 22 to Ruf's 25):
Darin Ruf: 139 GP, 584 PA, .317/.408/.620, 38 HRs, 2 SB
Domonic Brown: 93 GP, 389 PA, .327/.391/.589, 20 HRs, 17 SB
Considering the age difference and defensive difference, why is Ruf that much better than Brown, if you extrapolate Brown's season out to a full year at AA/AAA he would have had close to a 30/30 season at age 22. BTW Brown hit .346/.390/.561 in AAA before getting called up.
Brown has been injured the last two years with some pretty athleticism/power sapping injuries, why is being right handed enough to say Ruf is a better option (according to many people)
I'm not opposed to trading either player but not for Soriano….
I want both Ruf and Brown to be part of this team's future. We need guys who can still contribute in 2015 and beyond, when most of the current roster will be gone or turned to dreck. We need to get cheaper and younger. Ruf isn't super young, but he is super cheap. Brown is both. As you illustrate, Brown's numbers are far better than he is given credit for. Even his rookie major league season wasn't bad. As a rook, Michael Schmidt was BAD. Brown was merely ordinary.
Handedness really shouldn't matter. We are looking at years of service to the organization and our left-handedness is a short-term problem. I don't think Utley is a Phillie beyond 2013. By 2015 I am afraid that Howard will be an expensive shell and not a big cog in the lineup. By 2015 we may be worried that our best hitters are too RH and will prize Brown for his LH bat.
I think Utley will be gone, both because he is too consistently hurt to be depended upon, as well as getting up in years, but also because the Phillies seemed to really like Galvis at 2B.
I think that the Dom of 2 years ago compared to Ruf of today, Dom is a significantly better prospect. That said, while the injuries in most cases aren't his "Fault" persay, they do affect his value. Look at his performance thus far in the major leagues and you'll see why some people are just looking for something "different".
Outside of getting Hamilton on a somewhat team friendly deal, I don't think there is anyone out there worth displacing Ruf and Brown for, not becuase I don't think the other players could make the team better, but because i don't see those "other" players putting the phillies in division contention.
Lets take a look at Dom's performance since being called up. In his career, he's had 440 AB's and put up a career slash line of .236 .315 .388
The good:
He is managing to maintain a very attractive walk rate of 11% in 2012 and even better at 13.5% in 2011.
The bad:
His ISO in the majors, unlike in the minors which you quoted hasn't been up to par. With a career ISO of 152.
He's not stealing bases anymore as evidenced by zero attempts in 187 AB's last year. And even prior to the claimed hamstring injuries, wasn't really stealing bases either. He's attempted 7 steals in 147 career games.
You pointed out his excellent arm, which while true, is significantly hampered by his overall defense. His range factor per 9 was 1.56 in 2011, and 2.02 in 2012, both below average for his position. Additionally, he posted a career fielding % of .977, also below the league average at .987.
He has a career strike out rate of 21.5%
Now all that said, 477 PA is not nearly enough work at the major league level to be a "fair" shake, and I personally want to see him starting out of spring training (I still have some hope he'll really start to realize his potiential). All that said, for Ruf, we don't really have a clue what kind of player he's going to end up being in the major league level from an offensive perspective, but given his defensive concerns, it's going to have to be very good for it to compensate.
We're really compairing to incomplete players at this point. If Ruf manages an OPS between .880 and .900 (I think .780-.820 is more likely) he'll be well worth his lack of range in the outfield. I don't think that's likely, but the fact is, just like wondering if D. Brown is going to realize his potential, we just don't know.
So, back to reality, it's either Josh Hamilton on a 4 year contract, with a 10 million dollar buyout, or letting the kids play and finding out if the run is truely over or of the next generation can carry us with a few key free agent aquisitions over the next few years.
Excellent analysis. My position is the same as yours keep both players hand them their jobs out of spring training with the notion they need to prove they can get it done.
If Charlie is not on board with youth they should have gone right to Ryne. No disrespect to Charlie he was the right man for the club at the time he came in but he keeps on with this tact that young players shouldn't be relied upon he should move onto another team that has the right veteran presence.
As for Hamilton I don't believe he can co-exist in a line-up with Howard and the consensus seems to be that Howard is an immovable object.
I for one don't understand why the Brewers aren't making a push for Hamilton. If they went Braun/Hamilton/Hart they would be a contender to win that division.
I don't think it's fair to say it's Charlie's philosophy not to rely on young players. He's certainly put his faith in some young relievers, Mayberry, Galvis and others.
He may just think Ruf and Brown aren't good enough to be the team's everyday outfielders.
I hope they both get real opportunities to prove themselves, especially Brown.
Jim Salisbury said Brown's knee checked out fine in a MRI after the season and now he is in Clearwater working out.
Not to give much credit to the thought process but it seems all about "what have you done for me lately." My view is that in a case like Brown, you take all the time you need with him unless he shows himself unable to work with the people you put in charge of his development He's not costly to maintain and with his stock low, it would appear that the only market for him is in compensation for overpaid aging outfielders who are probably better served DH'ing at this point in their career.
Yeah, well I remember reading somewhere the other day, in an "analysis" from a dyed-in-the-wool stats guy, on a dyed-in-the-wool stats guy site, that definitively stated that Domo Brown was by far the worst defensive Out Fielder the Phillies presented in the last 5 years.
That is really interesting, post that article. That may have been true when he first came up. This year if you go by Fangraphs UZR/150 (to eliminate difference in innings), Brown comes in behind Mayberry (punished for having to play CF) and in front of Schierholtz, Pence, and Wigginton. (Darin Ruf and his 4 total outfield plays is a little ahead of Brown as well). Also despite being 5th in OF innings Brown was only behind Pence in OF assists with 7 to Pence's 9 in 450 less innings.
Read a lot of articles, don't remember exactly where I read this, If it was findable off of MLBTR it must be old enough that it was zapped off of the back end. So , couldn't find it.
Seems like it was a blog of some kind, the guy gave his bona-fides, maybe it was a year old, don't remember.
Bleacher Report? :)
An interesting aspect of this is that the stat community as a whole is kind of down on Brown, partly because of the defense. He was indeed better defensively last year, but still well below average. In a recent Fangraphs chat, 3 or 4 Fangraphs analysts all agreed that Brown was not a good candidate to trun things around in 2012.
As for "by far the worst defensive Out Fielder the Phillies presented in the last 5 years," I don't think that's true, but I can see where he is getting that. If you look at career numbers, ignoring Brown's improvement in 2012, and use UZR/150, he does grade out as the worst in the past 5 years (among players with signficant playing time. I'm not sure "by far the worst" is fair even then, as Burrell and Ibanez give him a run for his money, but if you use UZR Brown does grade out pretty badly.
I posted an optimistic take on Brown for 2013 but would be the first to admit that I would not be shocked if I was wrong. I think Brown might be a classic case of someone who needs a change of scenery. Part of that frankly is lack of faith that the current Phillies organization is capable of fixing whatever is wrong with him.
But getting value for him is going to be tough. The rumored Soriano deal would be a joke, though it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Ideally we would get someone similar in the sense of a once very highyl regarded prospect who hasn't quite panned out & needs a change of scenary. But there aren't a ton of such players available – or at least ones with a comparable amount of team control left.
err, that should be "turn things around in 2013."
Those UZR/150 numbers are really kind of depressing in a way. Over the past 5 years, 8 players have played at least 1000 innings in the OF for the Phillies. 6 of those 8 were below average (most surprising there: Mayberry – though he was above average as a corner outfielder). The two above average outfielders – Vic and Werth – are gone and long gone.
Ben Revere, if he continues to field as well as he has, and if you believe in UZR, will be the best Phillies' outfielder defensively since we have had the data to calculate UZR. Well … that depends of what cut off you use for innings played. If it is 1,000, Jason Michaels,of all people, grades out better than Revere. So does Kenny Lofton with only 714 innings. With even fewer innings, Bourn also grades out better than Revere, and Geoff Jenkins almost as good. Don't laugh, those were all very good defensive players. Of course all numbers are with the Phillies only.
It's an interesting list, actually. Of players who can fairly be regarded as full time regulars for the team, the guy who grades out best is Jason Werth..
And to be clear, when one combines (a) the current state of the team, (b) Brown's current low trade value, (c) the fact that he he is under reasonable team control for several years, and (d) his still high ceiling, even if his chance of reaching that ceiling is diminished, my preferred option is to not trade him and see what he can do in 2013.
I agree 100%
Would Colby Rasmus qualify for your scenario or has he already had (and failed) his "change of scenery" shot at restoring his promise. Logan Morrison?
Gordon Beckham?
Brown and Gillies have been hitting together I've heard. According to Gillies himself he is fine physically but what else is he going to say. He hasn't commented on the Revere and Inciarte moves.
Josh Hamilton to the Angels. MLBTraderumors suggests this may inspire the Angels to trade Mark Trumbo. He'd definitely fill that need for a righthanded power bat. But I'm guessing the pricetag for him would be something on the level of Cliff Lee.
Hamilton- 25 million per year over 5 years.
Angels- I say:
Hamilton LF, Bourjos CF , Trout RF
Trumbo 3B, Aybar SS, Kendrick 2B, Pujols 1B, Callasop INF/3B
Ianetta ,C
Kendry Morales DH
What do you give for Vernon Wells?