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- Zachary Levine, Baseball Prospectus
- It was yet another losing season for the Pirates, but at least they displayed a reason to believe things would start getting better soon. Sure, it was just one star and sure he stood alone in a lineup of virtual nothingness, but he was on the cusp of his prime and there were prospects on the way, including a No. 1 overall pick on the mound. Things were looking up on the Pirate Ship despite a brutal finish to an otherwise promising year. This streak of losing seasons had to come to an end sometime in the not-too-distant future.
Anyone who has been following baseball closely knows the story. But do you know the year?
The year was 1998. Sounds more familiar than that, right? The player was Jason Kendall -- a young up-the-middle star in his 20s, and don't lose sight of that in the myopia of his sad career denouement. (The No. 1 pick, by the way, was Kris Benson.)
The analogy is obvious to state, but it shouldn't be taken as a predictor of future peril. Just because the Pirates went nowhere after that squad doesn't mean a thing for Andrew McCutchen's team heading into 2013 and the streak beyond its current 20 years of losing.
What it does illustrate is the potential for -- and one example of -- a team wasting its star's prime, which the Pirates are in danger of doing with McCutchen. The now 26-year-old outfielder stood alone in the batting order among a squad of disappointments, unproven talents and 4-A types, compiling 4.9 WARP while none of his teammates poked their heads above 2.0.
McCutchen is the only player since Baseball Prospectus' WARP data originates in 1950 to be his team's only hitter with more than 2.0 WARP in three consecutive years. Or any three years for that matter.
There are three ways for the Pirates to go about remedying this situation amid the backdrop of some pitching prospects on the way and few elite bats in the system, and right now they are choosing the wrong one. Let's break them down.
Saturday's Top 5: Clayton Kershaw keeps his streak alive
3hChristina Kahrl
Jeff Samardzija has no complaints over staying
9hDoug Padilla
Yankees pitching remains a huge gamble
6hWallace Matthews
Crasnick: Players who could get traded in August
8hJerry Crasnick
1 Related
Severino to make Yankees debut Wed. vs. Red Sox
7hWallace Matthews
Joe Maddon: Starlin Castro more relaxed now
21hJesse Rogers
Yanks stay quiet at deadline -- what could be next?
1dAndrew Marchand
Cubs grab needed starter, reliever at trade deadline
2dJesse Rogers
Bucs wasting McCutchen's prime
2/15/2013 - MLB Andrew McCutchen Pittsburgh Pirates + more


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Mac OS X Tutorials
Mac OS X Version
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Demystifies the differences between Mac OS X and Windows, highlighting the terminology and interface changes that Windows users encounter.
"I often watch the lynda.com videos on my laptop while working out on a stationary bicycle. The short length of the video segments helps to keep me motivated: "I'll quit at the end of this chapter." So far I have lost 25 pounds!" —Gail P.
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Gasthaus Pöschl
Weihburggasse 17, Vienna, 1010
- Recommended for:
- Backpackers / Students, Couples, Families with teenagers, Singles, No fuss
Expert review of Gasthaus Pöschl
This small eatery recently changed its name from Immervoll to Gasthaus Pöschl. Actor, confectioner and chef, Hanno Pöschl, is back in the kitchen after the sudden departure of fellow cook Siegfried Immervoll, whose name is synonymous with "always full". For the last 10 years this has literally been the case. Maybe now it's easier to get a table without reservation....I wouldn't bet on it, though.
Traditional Viennese home cooking dominates the daily changing menu and sits alongside a couple of dishes with an Italian flavour as well as some mouth-watering desserts. Wines are from nearby wineries but there isn't a huge choice. The last time I ate here, I had the bouillon with semolina dumpling, followed by goulash and, after seeing someone else's serving, decided to go for the Othello im Hemd (hot chocolate sponge drowned in chocolate sauce accompanied by heaps of whipped cream) - am I glad I did! Other patrons were digging into schnitzels, calves' liver and fillets of char.
A stylish interior, clean lines, low-vaulted ceilings and plain furnishings are what to expect in this eatery that star architect Hermann Czech modernised 10 years ago. If the place is full – which is likely – have a drink at the bar while you wait for a table. In summer there's more seating outside on the square.
Staff are friendly and efficient.
The restaurant is very centrally located but quiet and off the beaten tourist track. It is in a gem of a square – the Franziskanerplatz – offering a great photo opportunity.
For a three-course meal with drinks, without wine, expect to pay 25 – 30 euros.
Try to book one of the two window tables.
More information on Gasthaus Pöschl:
- Price guide:
- Type:
- Restaurant
- Food:
- Traditional
- Address:
- Weihburggasse 17, Vienna, 1010
- Telephone:
- 01 5135288
- Serves:
- Lunch, Dinner
- Opening times:
- Daily noon-midnight.
- Accepts Credit Cards:
- Yes
- Reservations:
- Essential at peak times


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Father Jailed for Just 60 Days After Killing His 13-Year-Old Daughter with Two Slaps Over Chores
Apparently, it's perfectly acceptable to murder someone, as long as it was done "accidentally" while abusing your child. That's the message a judge just sent when he sentenced Moussa Sidime to just 60 days in prison after killing his daughter by slapping her twice.
A Canadian man was sentenced to 60 days in jail this week for slapping his 13-year-old daughter so hard that she later died.
Moussa Sidime, 74, from Quebec, had pleaded guilty to a manslaughter charge stemming from a 2010 confrontation with his teenage daughter, which ultimately resulted in her death.
According to court documents, the man got into a heated argument over chores with 13-year-old Noutene Sidime and slapped her on both sides of her face.
The girl collapsed to the floor unconscious with blood trickling from her nose. Mr Sidime called 911 and Noutene was rushed to a hospital, CTV News reported.
The 13-year-old girl spent three days in a coma at the Montreal Children's Hospital before succumbing to her injuries.
Not only was Sidime only sentenced to 60 days, but he'll be able to serve out his sentence on weekends only — meanwhile, the family is rallying around him, because it was just a freak accident that no one could have prevented, right? Of course, Sidime could have not abused his daughter, but like in any classic abusive family, the actions of the abuser are excused and hand-waved away. Shame on this judge for letting him get off so lightly.
Also see: A Real Man's Responsibilities
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This dad punches the crap out of two girls attacking his daughter. Tell me you wouldn't do the same if a pack of thugs were beating on your child. I...Read More
Cassy Fiano
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Comments about 'To some, President Obama is the wrong kind of Christian'
- Oldest first
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If the religious right thinks God needs a self-annointed surrogate to review credentials and certify who qualifies as the right kind of Christian, then I won't make the cut either.
- 12:00 p.m. Oct. 22, 2012
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America is great, because America is good.
We need leadership which does not promote coveting, lying, adultry, stealing, killing of babies, but one that respects God as the creator of a country which supplies free choice.
- 5:43 p.m. Oct. 22, 2012
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just what kind of Christian is he? He is all talk. Action speaks louder than words. All barry does is talk.
- 7:27 p.m. Oct. 22, 2012
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Yes, the religious Right does consider Obama to be "the wrong kind of
And Utah is the Reddest state in the country! Utah is the standard bearer of the religious Right!
That doesn't reflect we'll on Utah.
At all.
- 2:01 a.m. Oct. 23, 2012
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The "No true Scotsman" logical fallacy is apropos here.
- 9:17 a.m. Oct. 25, 2012
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Thunderbirds will fly in Westmoreland air show
The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds precision jet team will perform at the Westmoreland County Air Show on April 27-28 at Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Unity.
"It's a little early for us to hold an air show, but we're really looking forward to it," said airport authority Chairman Donald Rossi.
The jet team last appeared at the air show in 2001.
The authority resurrected the air show in 2011 after a 10-year hiatus when Spirit Airlines began offering commercial service at the facility near Latrobe.
In 2012, the Navy's Blue Angels jet team performed, drawing an estimated 75,000 spectators during the two-day event in June.
The Thunderbirds flying unit is officially known as the U.S. Air Force Air Demonstration Squadron and is based at Nellis Air Force Base in Las Vegas.
It will kick off its 60th anniversary season by performing the opening fly-over for NASCAR's Daytona 500 on Feb. 24.
The Thunderbirds date to 1953, when the team flew the straight-winged F-84G Thunderjets. This year will mark the 31st season the squadron has performed in the F-16 Fighting Falcon, one of the Air Force's most reliable and combat-proven fighter aircraft.
The Thunderbirds unit is composed of six demonstration pilots, two support pilots, four support officers, three civilians and more than 100 enlisted people serving in more than two dozen Air Force job specialties.
According to the team's website, the Thunderbirds' aerial demonstration includes about 40 maneuvers, varying from formation flying to solo routines. The entire show, including the opening ground ceremony, lasts about one hour.
Further details of the show, including additional acts, will be released at a later date, according to airport officials.
Paul Peirce is a staff writer for Trib Total Media. He can be reached at 724-850-2860 or email@example.com.
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Knocked Up (Unrated) 2007 NR
Amazon Instant Video
|Drama, Romance, Comedy
|Judd Apatow
|Seth Rogen, Katherine Heigl
|Supporting actors
|Paul Rudd, Leslie Mann, Jason Segel, Jay Baruchel, Jonah Hill, Martin Starr, Charlyne Yi, Iris Apatow, Maude Apatow, Joanna Kerns, Harold Ramis, Alan Tudyk, Kristen Wiig, Bill Hader, Ken Jeong, Craig Robinson, Tim Bagley, Loudon Wainwright III
|Universal Pictures
|MPAA rating
|NR (Not Rated)
|Captions and subtitles
|English Details
|Rental rights
|24 hour viewing period. Details
|Purchase rights
|Stream instantly and download to 2 locations Details
|Amazon Instant Video (streaming online video and digital download)
Funny movie, funny without always being overly silly. Another good Seth Rogen movie.Published 2 days ago by sawgrass
Katherine Heigl has received some criticism of late, but based on this film - she has a very engaging charm, star presence; and her likability - at least on celluloid, is on par... Read morePublished 15 days ago by Ada Ardor
I have seen this movie before and found it funny, but being 8 months pregnant and watching it again, made it that much more enjoyable!Published 29 days ago by Jessica Johnson


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Hey, I'm Rusty!
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My Name Is Rusty Tagliareni. I am a photographer by trade and by passion.
My specialties (as far as photography is concerned) are fashion, alternative model, architectural, and location photography. I should also note that I am a freelance writer, though I suppose that's not relevant here...
I work with several printed publication on a regular basis, and have a good relationship with many others which I contribute to whenever the need arises. I would link samples of my work as well as my online portfolio, but it seems this site blocks external links... so I can't. Sorry.


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Iraqi Kurds launch attack to retake flashpoint town of Jalawla from IS
August 22, 2014 - 15:30 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net - Iraq's Kurdish peshmerga forces on Friday, August 22 launched an operation to retake the flashpoint town of Jalawla from Islamic State jihadist fighters, Kurdish officials said, according to Agence France-Presse.
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party official Shirko Mirwais said the battle to reclaim the town lost to IS fighters on August 11 had already left several dead on both sides.
"The peshmerga advanced on Jalawla from several directions" before dawn, he said, adding that they had already taken back several positions, cutting off the militants.
He said nine peshmerga had been wounded in the fighting but could not say how many had been killed.
Another PUK official, Mullah Bakhtiar, confirmed the operation was under way and said it had already achieved some of its goals.
Kurdish forces lost at least 10 fighters when IS took the town, a strategic choke-point 130 kilometres (80 miles) northeast of Baghdad and only 30 (18 miles) from the border with Iran.
Top stories
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Turkey made the request under Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, which allows countries to ask for consultations.
Speaking before the vote, PM Alexis Tsipras stressed that he was not happy with the measures that creditors had imposed.
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Syrian army, militia regain control over several northwestern villages The insurgents launched an attack this week in the area but the government has fought back using aerial bombardments.
EU removes two Iranian oil companies from its sanctions list The court, however, declined to remove two other companies, Petropars Iran Co and Petropars Oilfields Services Co, from the list.
WB approves $40mln loan for rural road improvement in Armenia The proposed additional financing will raise the total length of roads to 360 km, 73 km of which have already been rehabilitated.
Armenian athlete wins gold at 2015 Special Olympics Five athletes with mental disabilities from Special Olympics Armenia NGO participate at the competitions in different sports.


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As we welcomed Lynnwood's Meadowdale High School Jazz Combo into the KPLU live performance studio, they looked like normal, hard-working music students. When they started to play, however, it was soon clear to us that we were hearing a band that was a cut above. Along with their mentor, trumpeter Michael Van Bebber, the combo […]
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Gerry Mulligan On Piano Jazz
Live Studio Session: Justin Kauflin – Still Keepin' On
Posted on by Jazz24 Staff in Jazz, Studio Sessions
The first time we met pianist Justin Kauflin he was in Seattle as part of the Seattle International Film Festival, which was showing a documentary about the friendship between the young Justin and veteran jazz trumpeter Clark Terry. The movie is called Keep On Keepin' On and if you haven't seen it, you're missing a […]


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Golf: Faldo for captain, says Jacklin
Wednesday 09 February 2005
Six-times major winner Faldo, Ian Woosnam, Jose Maria Olazabal and Sandy Lyle are in the running to succeed the 2004 captain Bernhard Langer, who last week ruled out a second term in charge.
"Nick Faldo's major wins and his career set him aside, quite frankly, from anyone else," Jacklin said. "Nobody knows better what it takes. I think he deserves the honour. . He's not always said the right things at the right time, but he and I have maintained a friendship for many years. He was great for my team. He would be my first choice."
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Yvette Cooper: Our choice is years of Tory rule under Jeremy Corbyn – or a return to a Labour government
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|Brand new items;Full manufacturer warranty available
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Comments about SDS-plus Hammer Steel 10 in. Point:
Use this for breaking out concrete between bpavers without damge to them. Concentrated power where I need it.
Bottom Line Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
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About سعودى انحراف
سعودى انحراف I am defiantly going to do the whole house now!The idea of your secret wealth is very simple. Romance Videos The shapes of both parts of a bikini resemble women`s underwear, and the lower part can range from revealing thong or g-string to briefs and modest square-cut shorts. Romance Videos In Earth`s case, its orbit is nearly circular, so that the difference between Earth`s farthest point from the Sun and its closest point is very small. It was also not popularized by Sacha Baron Cohen when he donned one in the film Borat. Romance Videos Some sources have represented the Chimera with three heads - the lion`s head as the main, then the goat`s head sprouted from its back, and the serpent`s or Dragon�s head on its tail -, but the popular myth tells of the single, fire-vomiting head. But the direction is quite constant: the axis does not move, at a rate of a little more than a half-degree per century. سعودى انحراف Pegasus is a winged white horse.
She made her debut in 2001 in dramas before taking up a lead role in Sweet 18. انحراف The first accounts of these animals date back to as recently as November 5, 2002, when an Aleta boy apparently mistook one of the animals for a floating log, only to become consumed with terror when the beast moved. The team figured out the distances to these bright radio sources by making observations six months apart when the the Earth is on opposite sides of its orbit around the sun. Live Sports The former are generally thought to have made a pact, usually with the Devil, and morph into werewolves at night to indulge in nefarious acts.


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Celebrity manicurist Marsha Bialo gave actress Jessica Alba a manicure with China Glaze Sacred Heart for the cover of the summer 2010 issue of Genlux Magazine. Bialo and the stylist agreed that Sacred Heart was the perfect choice because of its neon base combined with the richness of red, making it a good transition of summer nail trends into fall.
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Prominence to Modi in MP posters irks some, BJP defends move
Bhopal: As Narendra Modi`s pictures eclipse other top BJP stalwarts on poll posters here, a senior party leader says it was compelled to project a single leader to gain political mileage.
The posters with slogans like `Ab ki baar, Modi Sarkar` have taken over those with pictures of top leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and LK Advani.
"BJP is compelled to project a single person as its leader as other parties too are doing so because of leader-centric politics, which is gaining currency in the country these days," said state BJP Vice President and MP, Raghunandan Sharma.
"Whether it is Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, Mulayam Singh, Mayawati, Mamata or Jayalalithaa -- all parties are following leader-centric politics these days. BJP is also doing so as it feels that it would prove to be politically beneficial," said Sharma, who was been denied party ticket from Mandsaur.
Sharma said he felt "hurt and insulted" on being denied the party ticket but maintained that BJP was "different from other political parties on the basis of policies, philosophy and principles".
Posters in Madhya Pradesh also display a photograph of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan while party`s founders Shyama Prasad Mukherjee and Deen Dayal Upadhyaya as well as Vajpayee and Advani were eclipsed.
State Congress leaders, however, don`t agree with BJP`s argument and said the trend goes to show how the party treats its veterans.
"This is the problem with Modi. It appears that now only Modi is left in the BJP. That shows how the party has treated its seniors. He has no respect for them or their contribution," state Congress` newly-appointed chief spokesman, KK Mishra, told PTI.
"Had Modi respected them, he would have ensured their photographs got due place in BJP`s frontline posters," Mishra said.
He charged that the problem with Modi was that he considers himself larger than the party and, like Gujarat, he would try to usurp the entire party at the national level as well.
During 2013 Assembly election campaign, disappearance of Modi`s photographs from the posters dotting the state had become a major issue and was seen as a major tussle between him and Advani`s protege, Chouhan.
Advani had also compared Chouhan`s leadership with Vajpayee. However, Modi`s photographs were later given due prominence in the posters and banners in the state.
During a Google Hangout session when a person wanted to know why the photograph of Modi was missing from the background that prominently displayed the pictures of Vivekananda, Vajpayee and Advani, Chouhan had replied: "No one should worry about it as Modi-ji resides in my heart."
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text:
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
9/17/2013 (1 year ago)
Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)
While U.S. Military intervention in Syria has appears to have cooled down at the present time, there are growing concerns that showing support for opposition forces in that country could wind up backfiring. According to a recent report from IHS Jane, a defense consultancy, many of those battling the Bashar al-Assad regime are hardline Muslim - with little connection to the U.S. And its western allies.
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
Catholic Online (www.catholic.org)
9/17/2013 (1 year ago)
Published in Middle East
Keywords: Syria, opposition foirces, weapons, military intervention
LOS ANGELES, CA (Catholic Online) - According to the report, forces battling the Assad regime in Syria now number around 100,000 fighters. After more than two years of fighting they are fragmented into as many as 1,000 bands. The study has found that there are around 10,000 jihadists, fighting for powerful factions linked to AL-Qaeda.
Another 30,000 to 35,000 are hardline Islamists who share much of the outlook of the jihadists. These factions are more concerned with defeating the Bashar regime in lieu of wider, international concerns.
In addition, there are also at least a further 30,000 moderates belonging to groups that have an Islamic character. Therefore, only a small minority of the rebels are linked to secular or purely nationalist groups.
Western diplomats estimate that less than one third of the opposition forces are "palatable" to the United Kingdom. American envoys put the figure even lower.
Among all other concerns is the very real fear that the rebellion against the Assad regime is being increasingly dominated by extremists. The west's support for these groups could in effect give weaponry that would later fall into hostile hands. These fears contributed to unease in the U.S. and elsewhere over military intervention in Syria.
"The insurgency is now dominated by groups which have at least an Islamist viewpoint on the conflict. The idea that it is mostly secular groups leading the opposition is just not borne out," Charles Lister, author of the analysis, said.
Based on intelligence estimates along with interviews with activists and militants, the report contends that the fighting has seen the emergence of hundreds of separate rebel bands, each operating in small pockets of the country, which are usually loyal to larger factions.
Two factions linked to Al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) - also know as the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS) - have come to dominate among the more extremist fighters, Lister says. Their influence among the rebel factions has only grown over the past year.
"Because of the Islamist make up of such a large proportion of the opposition, the fear is that if the West doesn't play its cards right, it will end up pushing these people away from the people we are backing," he said. "If the West looks as though it is not interested in removing Assad, moderate Islamists are also likely to be pushed further towards extremists."
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By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
A nefarious plot to draw the United States into armed conflict with Islamic State has been revealed in a top-secret document. In an attempt to bring about "the end of the world," the document states that ISIS will invade India in a bid to draw the U.S. into an all-out ... continue reading
By Linky C. (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
The Afghan government confirmed Taliban leader "One-Eye" Mullah Mohammad Omar has been dead for more than two years. The militant leader died "under mysterious circumstances" in a hospital in Karachi City in Pakistan in April 2013, according to Abdul Hassib Seddiqi, a ... continue reading
By Nikky Andres (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
Australian public broadcaster, SBS defended the reality show where participants were shot at by ISIS militants in Syria. The incident was said to be a part of a trip retracing refugees' journeys and that those involved had wide security provisions. MUNTINLUPA, ... continue reading
By Nikky Andres (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
A suspected ISIS recruitment document discovered in Pakistan's anarchic tribal lands revealed that the religious extremist group has ostentatious ambitions of building a new terrorist army in Afghanistan and Pakistan, in addition to triggering a war in India to provoke ... continue reading
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
One of the greatest casualties of war is displaced civilian populations left without the necessities of life. In Yemen, nearly 4,000 people have been killed with more than 1.2 million people displaced. On ongoing battle between Houthi rebels and forces loyal to exiled ... continue reading
By Linky C. (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
A total of $150 billion is estimated to be the amount Iran will receive from the Iran deal. This amount will provide the country more than the $124.3 billion the U.S. has given to Israel in total financial aid since 1948. MUNTINLUPA CITY, PHILIPPINES (Catholic Online) ... continue reading
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
It was a shocking incident that drew attention to the plight of millions of refugees living in host countries. Thirteen-year-old Ahmet Hamdo, whose large Syrian family fled the war-torn town of Aleppo, was beaten mercilessly by a Turkish restaurant owner for selling ... continue reading
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Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi personally sanctioned a women to be beheaded, as a wedding present to a brutal female "judge" in the terror group's feared religious police. The cruel woman asked to slaughter an unbelieving "infidel" in return for taking a new husband after the ... continue reading
By Catholic Online (NEWS CONSORTIUM)
Australian authorities have clamped down a misguided attempt at heroism. Jamie Reece Williams, from suburban Melbourne was arrested after he allegedly try to fly to northern Iraq to join Kurdish forces battling Islamic State. It remains illegal for any Australian to ... continue reading
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He was at one time the most visible and dreaded figure in the Islamic State terror group . now, "Jihadi John" has fled for his life, afraid that his ISIS overlords were planning to kill him with as much leniency mercy as he did captive journalists. LOS ANGELES, ... continue reading


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Red Pimples Show Up On Childs Stomach hot news Red bumps stomach , chest - medhelp, I have small red bumps on my stomach, chest and back. they slightly resemble chicken pox, but no scabbing, minimal redness and slightly raised. no itching. i have. Red Pimples Show Up On Childs Stomach hot news Red bumps body - dermatology - medhelp, I started out having red bumps mostly on my stomach and then they got redder, raised and spread out a little-- it first looked like a lot of mosquito bites all over..
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» News
Ride gets bumpy for HK train network
Publication Date : 06-05-2014
Hong Kong's much-vaunted subway system appears to be veering off track in recent times.
First came periodic train stoppages - with at least six major incidents in the past half year - frustrating commuters used to fast, smooth rides.
Then came the big bust-up - the surprise revelation that the completion of a HK$67 billion (US$8.6 billion) high-speed rail linking Hong Kong with Guangzhou will be delayed by two years and be ready only in 2017.
Yesterday, Transport Secretary Anthony Cheung and head honchos of the MTR Corporation (MTRC), including its chairman, Raymond Chien, apologised for the debacle, and for failing to keep the public informed.
"We have let you down," said MTRC chief executive Jay Walder, while rejecting calls by legislators for him to step down.
So far, two members of his team have taken the fall.
MTRC officials blame bad weather and complicated geological features encountered during excavation for the delay.
While mega infrastructure projects are often derailed due to unforeseen obstacles, the current controversy has gained legs partly due to perceptions of a cover-up.
Rumours of trouble surfaced in May last year but were vehemently denied by the company. It also transpired that Dr Cheung knew of the problem in November but did not make it public after a phone conversation with Walder as he wanted to give MTRC "the benefit of the doubt". The government has a 76 per cent stake in MTRC, which is listed.
So what lies behind the recent woes of the subway system, long lauded, including by Singaporeans, as a shining example of public transport in the world?
The problems are multi-faceted and the causes just as diverse.
But the broad picture painted by analysts is that of a company that has always taken pride in delivering the goods, but which has come under unprecedented pressure by having bitten off more than it can chew.
Ridership on Hong Kong's trains is at a high, with 5.2 million trips made in a weekday.
Meanwhile, the company is juggling its lucrative business of developing property with its core mission of keeping the public transport system going.
Projects are piling up as MTRC races to finish the express rail link to mainland China - a commissioned project posing technical challenges different from those it is more familiar with - while also adding four new line extensions to its existing 218km network.
Veteran transport analyst Hung Wing Tat did not mince his words. He said: "They want to show that they are big heroes."
The hubris and the heavy workload appear to have exerted a toll.
In a statement to The Straits Times, MTRC said the train service it provided last year "was the best" since 2007. There were 143 delays lasting eight minutes or more, down from 146 and 190 in the preceding two years.
But the numbers do not reflect the severity of some stoppages. One along the Tseung Kwan O line, for instance, halted services for nearly five hours in what was called the worst disruption in a decade.
"The current operational disruptions are rather serious in terms of time length and in some cases the handling did not meet the MTRC's past performance records," said researcher Rikkie Yeung, who wrote the book Moving Millions: The Commercial Success And Political Controversies Of Hong Kong's Railways.
One factor is labour shortage, both in construction and maintenance. About a quarter of MTRC's maintenance staff are outsourced workers from contractors. This, said Dr Hung, could have compromised standards, calling it a case of "too few people working on too many projects".
Meanwhile, the management's attention is likely to have been distracted by business expansion outside Hong Kong and new projects, said Dr Yeung.
All this, at a time when the 30-year-old system is experiencing wear and tear.
But while standards may be slipping, Hong Kong's MTR system remains a superb one. It maintained an on-time performance of 99.9 per cent last year, meaning that a passenger experienced a delay only once for every 1,000 trips - an enviable record.
The recent episodes are thus more of a wake-up call, both for MTRC and the government. Dr Cheung admitted as much when he said: "On whether we trusted MTRC too much, indeed there was a lapse in my judgment."
Will senior management change its ways? Walder did not endear himself to legislators when he sought to narrow the scope of the problem to "miscommunication".
"The biggest problem is not the management," he said.
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Book your room at Hamlet Oasis Resort
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Hamlet Oasis resort is one of those hidden gems on Bonaire with twenty detached cottages set in a lush tropical garden. You will certainly enjoy your privacy here. Each cottage consists of a studio or a one- or two-bedroom apartment, all with a covered terrace/porch. The cottages are fully furnished and equipped for your convenience while on the premises is a wireless internet access point. The Hamlet Oasis resort has a fresh-water pool surrounded by a deck with comfortable deck-chairs, and mature coconut palms make this a perfect place to relax in the shade. This resort also offers great opportunities for divers, as just a few steps away from your cottage is the well known dive site 'Cliff'. To make diving even easier, there is a dive operation onsite. The resort, coupled with Bonaire's tropical atmosphere and our friendly staff, provides all the ingredients for a relaxing holiday.Information missing or incorrect? Tell us!
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Air Conditioned, Car Rental Desk, Free Parking, Outdoor Parking, Parking, Pool, Tour Desk, Television with Cable, Coffee Maker in Room, TV, Connecting Rooms, Kitchenette, Refrigerator, TV Remote Control, WC, Shower, Satellite TV, Terrace, Kitchen, Sitting Area, Internet Access, Boating, Fishing, Horseback Riding, Sailing, Scuba Diving, Shops/Commercial Services, Snorkeling, Water Skiing, FAX,
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Part 2
Belief in Prophets and Divine Revelations
Belief in Prophets and Divine Revelations
4. Jews and Muslims both believe in prophets and divine revelations
Judaism and Islam each accept the idea that God communicates directly to humanity through the agency of prophets, or human beings chosen by God to serve as "mouthpieces" through whom the divine will may be communicated to human communities. (Contrary to common colloquial use, the term "prophet" refers not to a foreteller of the future, but literally translated simply means "one who speaks for God.")
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Symbion Announces Promotions for Staff
Chad Baldwin has been promoted to Vice President, Acquisitions & Development. He previously served as Assistant Vice President.
Lauren Whitsett has been named Vice President, Product Line Planning. She was previously Assistant Vice President.
Adam Gleaves, previously Director of Risk & Insurance, has been appointed Assistant Vice President.
Nita Hill has been promoted from Benefits Director to Benefits Assistant Vice President.
Human Resources Coordinator Leslie Ann Sharp has been promoted to Human Resources Generalist.
Elise Gregory, Jeff Harris and Teresa Saunders have been elevated to the role of Accounting Manager. Previously, they served as Senior Accountants.
Lanie Brooks, Lynsey Goldsby, Anne Hester, Suzanne Monroe and Dennis Miruka have been promoted to Senior Accountants. They previously served as Accountants/Financial Analysts.
Symbion, headquartered in Nashville, Tenn., owns and operates a network of short stay surgical facilities, including six surgical hospitals, providing non-emergency surgical procedures across many specialties. As of January 1, 2013, the company owned and operated 62 surgical facilities in 26 states.
Learn more about Symbion.
Related Articles on Surgery Center Transactions & Valuation:
Physicians Endoscopy Acquires Majority Share of Endoscopy Center of Bucks County
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text:
These Glass Jars would be perfect for organizing! Prima - Special Edition - Apothecary Glass Jars of Mulberry Flowers in a Tray at Scrapbook.com $9.99 (was $31.99) Apothecary Jars, Apothecaries Glasses, Crafts Embellishments, Apothecaries Jars Cut, Editing Apothecaries, Glasses Jars, Prima Apothecaries, Alot Prima, Mulberry Flowers
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Mason Jar Organizer- Perfect for holding forks, spoons, napkins at parties- Wide mouth mason jars available. $40.00, via Etsy.
Doodlebug Design - Fashion Furnishings Collection - Apothecary Chest - White at Scrapbook.com $123.49
Echo Park - Apothecary Emporium Collection - Halloween - 12 x 12 Collection Kit at Scrapbook.com $13.99 - #scrapbooking #echopark #halloween
That's a lot of stuff, but I love the way it's thoughtfully organized into glass jars for display.
Easy DIY mason jar decorations. I love when brides ask if they can do their own centerpiece. Of course they can. As an event planner, I am here to guides my brides but this is their wedding. Mason Jars are the new thing. Love how brides use these for everything!


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Verify the internet address you typed : theorangecommunity.forumotion.com,
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Deniliquin Rhinos gearing up
Changes to the structure of the Murray Valley Cricket Association have the Rhinos excited for the new season.July 25, 2014 3:55am
After a hugely successful 2013/14 season in the Murray Valley Cricket Association, the Deniliquin Rhinos are back and ready for more.
In their debut season, the Rhinos claimed the one-day premiership and played in the T20 and two-day grand finals.
It was a grand entrance to a strong competition, and the side's first outing of 2014/15 will be a one-day match against powerhouse Strathmerton on October 11.
The upcoming MVCA season, however, will feature a different structure to previous years.
''Rather than play all the one-day games before Christmas and then the two-day games after Christmas, there'll be a mix of both throughout the season,'' Rhinos captain Brad Todd said.
''There will also be no T20 games played.''
The new format was decided upon at the association's recent annual general meeting.
In another bold move, the competition will no longer split in two after Christmas.
The structure of finals games has also changed and will feature the top six teams rather than the top four.
''So far the draw has only been released for the first two rounds - we take on Jerilderie in round two,'' Todd said.
''That means Strathmerton and Jerilderie are the only teams we play twice during the season.''
The Rhinos' first training session is being held at the RSL nets from 11.30am on Sunday, August 3. It will be the first of a number of trial sessions.
''A selection process will take place to join the Rhinos squad for the 2014/15 season,'' Todd said.
''We want all initial Rhinos team members and any new players interested in trying out to attend these sessions.
''A barbecue lunch will be available after training.''
The Deniliquin Rhinos offer various sponsorship packages and are looking for new sponsors for the upcoming season.
Anyone interested in supporting the club can contact Brad Todd on 0401
Thankyou for your comment.Your comment will appear once it has been approved by MMG staff.
Council seeks community consultation regarding Shepparton East
Shepparton East people are being invited to play a role in shaping their community.
Elliott's first professional win
Yarrawonga's Bre Elliott played the most "consistent golf of her life" over three days to win the Fuccillo Kia Championship at Capital Hills by carding a 2-under 69 on the final day.
Auxiliary re-elects president
Heather Donaldson was re-elected president of Tatura Hospital Ladies Auxiliary at the annual general meeting on Thursday, which was attended by 33 people.
Missing jogger's family releases statement
THE family of the 18-year-old Bendigo woman who went missing during a jog last week has issued a statement.
Group is keen for flow of donations
THE 2015 National Blood Donor Week festivities will make the Rochester region Victoria's new red light district.
Digital strategy discussion
Community workshop to consider issues to help form Campaspe digital strategy
New Salvos minister leading by example
Heather Stamp brings a long experience of the Salvation Army to Seymour.
$1.6m Amaroo development
Berrigan Shire Council have approved a development application for six more independent living units to add to Berrigan's Amaroo Self Care Unit block.
Birds of a feather they fall together
THEY may be a familiar sight across the Heathcote district, but some of the much-loved birds in the region are in decline.
When Irish eyes were smiling
It was a field of emerald at the Soroptimist International of Cobram Barooga's annual lunch on Friday, where diners enjoyed the craic at the Irish-themed event.
Big Bendigo wins
Deniliquin and district boasted two major winners at the Australian Sheep and Wool Expo at Bendigo from July 17 to 19.
Paddock walks at yarrawonga and Dookie
Riverine Plains is set to hold the first in its series of farm walks for the 2015 season as part of its research into stubble retained cropping systems.
Gliding to a better life
The Connect9 program gives Year 9 students the chance to fly over Benalla in a glider.
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text: Dined here back in June 2013 for a huge gathering, and was impressed. Made it back today for Sunday Brunch, and wasn't let down. Had the Grimaud burger with Pomme Frites ( French Fries). My friend ordered the Mushroom & Ham Bruschetta. Both of us cleaned our plate. Food was plated well, and thus... read more


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Gulfstream Park has voluntarily dismissed a federal lawsuit that sought to block slots being installed in casinos operated by Florida Indian tribes, saying it will await the outcome of a similar Florida Supreme Court action.
The lawsuit, which was filed last December, included as defendants Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Dirk Kempthorne. Crist last November signed a compact with the Seminole Tribe which allowed for the implementation of Class III slots into seven tribal casinos, three of which are located in Broward County, where Gulfstream is located.
Marc Dunbar, a Tallahassee-based attorney representing Gulfstream Park, said the lawsuit was filed in a Florida federal court only as an attempt to immediately block the installation of slots in the tribal casinos. The judge assigned to the case declined to file an injunction, according to court records, and the tribe began installing slots at one of its casinos in February.
"There was no reason to keep the federal case down here," Dunbar said. "It became moot. It wasn't appropriate to keep it going until the (Florida) Supreme Court rules."
The Florida Supreme Court action, which was filed by the Florida House of Representatives last year, challenges Crist's constitutional authority to negotiate and sign the tribal compact. Gulfstream Park has joined the Florida House as plaintiffs in the action, which was filed a couple of weeks after Crist signed the compact. Oral arguments were heard Jan. 30, and it could be months before the court releases its opinion.
The Seminole Tribe eventually plans to install up to 15,000 slot machines in its Florida casinos. The compact also gave the tribe the right to conduct "banked" card games such as blackjack and baccarat.
Gulfstream Dismisses Tribal Casino 'Suit
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Chicken Parmigiana
Chicken Parmigiana
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Making for dinner tonight.
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Country Sweet Hot Sauce
4 cups arugula
Baby Arugula, Favorite Salad, Arugula Salad, Chicken Goats Cheese, Healthy Food, Growing Arugula, Favorite Food, Goat Cheese, Cups Arugula
I will be growing arugula this summer!
One of my favorite salad ingredients.
Similar to salad served at Tiny's #5. Dr. Perricone Watercress and Baby Arugula with Chicken, Goat Cheese and Pecans
1/2 tablespoon red wine vinegar
Olives Oil, Olive Oils, 1 3C Red, Cups Red, Wine Vinegar, Red Wines, Wine Vinaigrette, Tablespoon Red
Red Wine Vinaigrette: 1/3C Red Wine Vinegar, 1 Shallot, 1Tbsp Sugar, 1/2C Olive Oil, Salt & Pepper.
4 ounces fresh mozzarella, cut into 8 even slices
Staples, Slime Soups, Tomatoes Mozzarella Salad, Olives Oil, Salad Recipes, Flats, Ounc Fresh, Fresh Mozzarella, Ovens Dry Tomatoes
"Slime Soup" from Cookstr.com #cookstr
Fresh Mozzarella - light and lovely with drizzle of olive oil and sea salt. Eat with fresh ripe tomatoes and home-grown basil. Simple.
Tomato and Mozzarella Salad Recipe from RecipeTips.com!
1 ounce Parmigiano-Reggiano, grated


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Families of 5 Christmas Ornaments
Personalize any of these family of five ornaments with the names of your family members for a truly personal family gift. Choose from many different scenes to find the perfect fit for your family with the blessing of multiple children.
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Read what our customers say about our Personalized Christmas Ornaments and their shopping experience!Hover over testimonials to stop scrolling
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Black Swans
Welcome to the ARkStorm
The rain starts from light gray skies with modest winds. California farmers desperate for water look up from their work and raise their faces to the sky, thankful for the drops of moisture on their faces.
What the grateful farmers don't know is that jets of warm, moist air that originated over the North Pacific have formed a massive storm system — what scientists call an atmospheric river — that is getting set to dump catastrophic amounts of precipitation on California.
First the rain comes in spurts. Then it pours and pours and keeps on pouring.
It's more than enough to water parched almond trees and cotton fields. It's enough to wipe those groves and fields away.
The story is that Noah built an ark to survive rain that fell for 40 days and 40 nights. This is what happens here and then some. No exaggeration.
Week after week, the rain comes relentlessly. After three weeks of solid rain, accompanied by hurricane-force winds, much of the state's infrastructure and its flood control systems start to give way.
California's first responders and flood control systems are prepared for storm and flood events that might come every couple of hundred years at maximum. They are not prepared for this.
The first major landslide — the first of tens of thousands — occurs at the picturesque community of Fort Bragg on the Mendocino Coast, where dozens of properties are crushed on the ocean side rocks below the town's cliffs.
Soon, the news media report that the levees that hold back the Sacramento River from businesses and residents in the area's delta towns are failing. Evacuations are hampered by flooded roads.
A video produced for the U.S. Geological Survey depicts a hypothethical but scientifically plausible storm impacting California.
Flooding swamps San Francisco, Los Angeles and heavily populated San Diego and Orange counties. The state's capital, Sacramento, suffers a repeat of what it went through in 1861, when its streets were impassable and the governor had to be transported to his inauguration by boat.
The van of a family trying to drive away from the town of Pittsburg in the Sacramento River delta is swept into the surging river. A young couple and their three children are lost.
Dozens of migrant farm workers in California's Central Valley are drowned before anyone knows they're gone. They owned no vehicles in which to make their escape. As usual, it's the poor who suffer the worst.
Flood waters in the Central Valley are at 10 feet and rising and will crest at 20 feet. It won't be long before the valley is an inland lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. Floating on the surface of that massive lake are the bloated, decaying carcasses of thousands of cattle, poultry and swine, swept out of the largest agricultural center in the country and drowned by the storm.
Interstate 5 within the state is under water. Trucks bearing tens of millions in retail goods can't get where they need to go. It will be weeks before I-5 is passable and it will require millions of dollars in repairs.
The ocean movement from the storm takes many of Southern California's most treasured structures and smashes them.
The gorgeous terra cotta-roofed seaside racetrack grandstand at Del Mar — founded by Bing Crosby and some of his friends — is heavily damaged by the sea. The piers at Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach and Venice Beach are torn to pieces.
The flooding overwhelms coastal wastewater plants. Those residents who live along the concrete-lined Los Angeles River who weren't forced out by the rain are driven out by sewage, as it erupts out of hundreds of manholes, turning the manmade river into a giant sewer.
The Terminal Island pumping station located between San Pedro and Long Beach is cut off by the floods. Abandoned by its 70-plus employees, raw sewage spews from it and runs untreated into the Pacific Ocean.
Chastened by its failures during the flooding in New Orleans after Katrina, the federal government moves much more quickly than it did in 2005 to support overwhelmed local and state emergency responders.
National Guardsmen and U.S. Army soldiers can help evacuate residents and hoist sandbags. They can't, however, offer financial disaster recovery assistance.
As a result of this 45-day storm, there is more than $400 billion in property damage and an additional $325 billion in business interruption losses.
No more than $30 billion is recoverable through private or public insurance.
When the waters recede, more than 170 California cities and towns are insolvent, unable to cover the costs of the services they required and hamstrung by drastically reduced property and income tax collections.
Deaths number in the thousands.
The state's agricultural economy, once the biggest in the world and already damaged by years of drought, teeters on collapse.
Goodbye Disneyland. Goodbye Rodeo Drive.
The Modeling
What we describe is no apocalyptic fantasy. Rain and wind in these amounts came to California in December of 1861 and didn't leave until the following February.
Geologists studying ocean sedimentation off of the coast of California determined that atmospheric rivers have dropped this much rain on California — or more — on at least six occasions.
The most muscular academic research in this area of catastrophe modeling is that done by the U.S. Geologic Survey's Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project (MHDP), a multi-discipline effort involving more than 100 scientists, consultants and public sector officials.
As we described above, the ARkStorm that the project modeled in 2010 would produce more than $700 billion in property and business interruption losses.
"All of these scenarios are scientifically plausible," said Dale Cox, the project manager for the USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction, the successor organization of the MHDP. Cox co-founded the MHDP and oversaw the ARkStorm scenario.
"They are not worst case scenarios but they are in general low probability, extreme events. We're trying to create them so that they will be accepted. If it's too big, people are going to blow it off and nobody is going to do anything about it," Cox said.
To create the ARkStorm scenario, the team of scientists under Cox's direction took the science used for studying earthquake trench faults — looking at where offsets in the fault occurred with carbon dating — and applied that to the deltas and marshes of California's coast line.
What they deduced from that geologic evidence is that atmospheric rivers — massive storms that collect huge amounts of water from the atmosphere over the Pacific and pour it on California — have occurred and could well occur again.
"The metaphor I like to use is that it's like turning on a fire hose and pointing it at California and moving it up and down California's coast line," said Laurie Johnson of San Rafael, Calif.-based Laurie Johnson Consulting. She previously worked at Risk Management Solutions, the modeling firm.
Prasad Gunturi, the lead for North America-related CAT modeling research and evaluation at Willis Re, said a recent scientific report likened an atmospheric river to taking all of the water in the Amazon River and dumping it in California's Central Valley.
For this project, Johnson focused on long-term recovery implications. Willis Re's Gunturi pitched in on economic loss analysis.
"The whole purpose of loss modeling is to come up with a risk management strategy. So if we know what we know now, what could we do and what would be the best investment to make now," Johnson said.
To model the amount of wind, storm surge and flooding that accompanies an ARkStorm, Cox's team "stitched" together data from two separate storms: a winter storm that affected predominantly Southern California in 1969, and a 1986 storm that impacted predominantly Northern California.
The team also mapped, for the first time ever, what it would look like if the entire state flooded.
"The whole purpose of loss modeling is to come up with a risk management strategy. So if we know what we know now, what could we do and what would be the best investment to make now." — Laurie Johnson, founder, Laurie Johnson Consulting
"The team had to build that from scratch," Johnson said. "Team members worked with FEMA and the state department of water resources to develop a statewide hydrology model and figure out how flooding progressed across river systems and through time statewide," Johnson said.
Using trench analysis carbon dating to study California's storm history is one of the project's legacies.
Bringing the term ARkStorm into public consciousness is another. "It's something you hear quite commonly now with the media and the weather media. Not because we did it, but … it was a new concept," Johnson said.
The ARkStorm scenario also showed California's emergency responders that they were going to have to look at flooding in a whole new way.
Here was a statewide event they had never considered before.
"Central California was once a large inland sea with very low elevations in many spots. I knew that from my geoscience background," Johnson said.
"But I don't think people appreciated that in 1861-1862, flooding basically closed the capital, Sacramento; the whole Central Valley became a lake for more than three months. It took more than three months to drain the city," she said.
"Nobody had looked at the statewide flows," Cox said.
"California has really good flood fighters. We have really good emergency responders. We are looking at a scenario that would challenge them and that is what we're trying to do," Cox said.
Since the ARkStorm report was produced, Cox and some of his teammates have taken its hydrology and meteorology science and applied it at local levels. They've presented an ARkStorm scenario to officials in Ventura County.
"It was a really eye-opening experience for them," Cox said.
Cox has also produced a study, published in January, detailing what would happen to the Lake Tahoe community in the event of an ARkStorm.
Look at these two factors alone.
One: That community takes its drinking water out of Lake Tahoe, untreated for the most part.
Two: Tahoe's sewage treatment facilities are mostly at lake level. Should an ARkStorm strike, pumping that sewage out of the basin would become impossible.
Also, take into account that the workers who operate those sewage plants live on the other side of the mountain ridges, in more modest communities.
The snow from an ARkStorm would stop them from getting to their jobs.
"We often talk about The Big One [a big earthquake on the San Andreas Fault]; this is a bigger event," said Anne Wein, an operations research analyst with the U.S. Geological Survey based in Menlo Park, Calif.
"What struck me was the evacuation being similar in size to a hurricane. We forget that this can happen in California," Wein said.
Additional 2015 Black Swan coverage:
To Clean Up a Dirty Fight
A dirty bomb detonated in Manhattan could make a ghost town of the most populous city in the U.S.
The Darkness of the Sun
A fast-moving geomagnetic storm blasts the North American power grid, leaving a large swath of the Northeastern U.S. temporarily uninhabitable.
Black Swans
The Darkness of the Sun
"Daddy, wake up! Come see the rainbows!" 6-year-old Amanda LeBlanc insisted as she shook her father out of his slumber. Joel LeBlanc stirred slowly, feeling like he hadn't slept at all.
"What? Go back to bed," he grumbled, rolling over.
"No, Daddy you have to look," insisted Amanda, throwing the bedroom curtains wide open. Joel squinted at the light, confused. It was way too early for sunrise, wasn't it?
Joel hoisted himself out of bed and joined his daughter at the window, catching his breath at the sight. "Huh. You know what that is, honey? It's called an aurora. Don't see that every day — not in Florida anyway."
"I'm going outside to take a picture," Amanda declared, cantering off.
Northward, there was less wonderment and more worry. Scientists had warned that week of a large coronal mass ejection (CME) that the sun had hurled toward Earth. Only three days later, it was followed by a pair of still-larger CMEs. The latter two bursts combined during their brief journey from the sun, pushing billions of tons of highly charged particles toward Earth at unprecedented speed, thanks to the path cleared by the earlier blast.
Scientists' predictions on the size and speed of the event fell short of the mark. But even if they'd been right about everything else, they couldn't have gauged that the CME's magnetic field was aligned in a way that left Earth at its most vulnerable, allowing the maximum infusion of charged plasma into the Earth's magnetosphere. It was a recipe for a perfect solar superstorm.
Video: This 1:31 minute time lapse video by Brendan Hall shows an aurora borealis in Kalispell, Mont., that occurred over 1.5 hours in June 2015.
By the time the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center issued an urgent warning, there were only minutes left to act. Power generation companies kicked into emergency mode, working to mitigate the impact by taking transformers offline.
But even large generators couldn't act fast enough. Geomagnetically induced currents flowed into the power grid in a matter of minutes, overheating extra-high-voltage (EHV) transformers and frying coils, destroying or damaging hundreds.
The North Atlantic corridor was hardest hit, thanks to higher ground conductivity along the coastline. In short order, upwards of 35 million people from New York City to Washington, D.C. were suddenly without power. There was an eerie stillness that morning as schools and many businesses were forced to remain shuttered.
Backup-generator owners went in search of fuel, but most gas pumps had stopped functioning immediately or soon afterward.
ATMs were all down. Within hours, land and cell phones would fail, and water could no longer pump. Worse, wastewater treatment plants shut down, causing sewage to overflow into drinking water.
Beyond the area affected by the power outage, disruptions to global positioning systems and satellite communications wreaked havoc with cellular networks, financial transaction processing and logistics operations.
The hardy Northeasterners made the best of it at first, boiling water on camp stoves, firing up barbecues and grilling the thawing food from their freezers. But before the week was out, nerves had frayed. Residents and businesses demanded answers from utilities and government officials.
The news was bad — very bad. It's not as if hundreds of EHV transformers were warehoused waiting to be called into service. Replacements had to be ordered. and replacement for any given transformer would be at least five months and possibly up to a year or even longer, given the high level of need and the short list of manufacturers.
Units coming from foreign manufacturers would take even longer, involving arduous and complex transportation arrangements.
Residents and business owners were stunned. Public officials explained that with no power or fuel, no water pumps or waste treatment facilities, no readily accessible food supply and badly strained emergency services, there was no option other than to evacuate the affected regions.
The impact to the economy was staggering. National companies struggled to maintain communications with evacuating employees, while putting plans in place to shift operations to other locations. But an overwhelming number of small and mid-sized local businesses without the means to relocate simply folded.
Companies with business interruption or contingent business interruption policies presumably triggered by the mandatory evacuation breathed a sigh of relief, not yet aware of the lengthy battles they'd face later on about whether or not fried transformers, or the incapacity of the power grid itself, constituted a property damage trigger under policy terms.
Supply chains nationally and globally faced upheaval as companies raced to secure secondary suppliers. Those select few companies that had chosen to take up supply chain coverage quietly congratulated themselves and used the opportunity to its fullest advantage while their competitors faltered.
Once the dust had settled, much of the North-Atlantic corridor was a patchwork of ghost towns. Members of the Army and National Guard were stationed in the region to curtail damage from looters and gangs who evaded evacution, sometimes squatting in unoccupied buildings and setting fires at night for light and warmth. Many buildings that hosted squatters would eventually need to be condemned.
Two years later, a handful of transformers still awaited replacement. Only a fraction of the evacuated population had returned, and local governments struggled to rebuild long-vacant communities. Estimates calculated the total economic cost at upwards of $2 trillion.
The Inevitable Storm
The largest solar storm in recorded history occurred in 1859. It was dubbed the Carrington Event, after British astronomer Richard Carrington, who witnessed the megaflare. He was the first to realize the link between activity on the sun and geomagnetic disturbances on Earth.
During the event, Northern Lights were reported as far south as Cuba and Honolulu. The flares were so powerful that people in the Northeastern United States could read their newspapers just from the light of the aurora. U.S. telegraph operators reported sparks leaping from their equipment — in many cases setting fire to nearby materials.
Now, take a storm of that magnitude and let it play out in the modern world. Far smaller events have occurred many times. One such storm struck in 1989, taking out Quebec's power grid in less than two minutes, causing $6 billion in damages and leaving millions of people without power for nine hours.
For the sake of comparison, scientists measure these storms using an index based on nano-Teslas (nT). The lower the number, the harder the Earth's magnetic field shakes when a storm hits. The Quebec storm in 1989 measured at -589 nT. The far more powerful Carrington Event is estimated at around -850 nT.
And then there was a near miss in July 2012. Had that solar blast occurred only one week sooner, the Earth would have been directly in its path, and scientists calculated the storm would have clocked in at up to -1,200 nT. The fabric of society would have been profoundly altered, and we would still be picking up the pieces today.
"The concern becomes, now that we know, do we make the choice to act?" — Kyle Beatty, president, Verisk Climate
There is more or less universal agreement among experts and scientists that another Carrington-level event or stronger is an inevitability — the only uncertainty is when. Some experts even opine that this kind of event shouldn't even be called a Black Swan, because the probability is higher than most might realize.
In an article published in the journal "Space Weather" in 2012, solar scientist Pete Riley of Predictive Science Inc. calculated that the probability of a solar storm at the power of the Carrington Event or stronger in the next 10 years is around 12 percent.
The potential impact of such an event to our hyper-connected, electricity- and satellite-dependent society is a sobering prospect, and one that is netting an increasing amount of interest.
In 2013, Lloyd's published the report that our scenario is partially based on, "Solar Storm Risk to the North American Power Grid," in partnership with Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. (AER), a division of Verisk Climate.
"This is a topic that is drawing strong interest in the government levels at a national and international scale, because the impacts could be so large and because this is one of the only natural perils that could create simultaneous impact across continents," said Kyle Beatty, Verisk Climate president, who worked on the study. "… When we get into an event of this size, it would impact Europe as well — it's a global phenomenon."
"We understood that the engineering and science communities were talking about space weather as a potentially high impact phenomenon," added Nick Beecroft, emerging risks and research manager at Lloyd's of London.
"But we felt that the understanding of the phenomenon and the potential impact on the insurance industry was very limited."
Doomsday Assumptions
Experts stress that while it's popular to paint this level of solar superstorm as a virtual "doomsday" event, that outcome need not be the case. The key is to commit to doing something about it now.
Since the 1989 Quebec storm, the Canadian government has invested $1.2 billion into protecting the Hydro-Quebec grid infrastructure. But you have to wonder how many billions could have been saved if that investment had come sooner.
"If we were to experience a major solar storm event — and I really should say it's a question of when, not if — there could be extreme ramifications for power grids and for all those technologies that rely on satellite navigation systems," said Beecroft.
It would require worldwide cooperation and investment to build in resilience to key systems, he said, as well as enhanced satellite systems and technology to improve monitoring and early warning systems for space weather events. In addition, it's likely there would be "much greater demand for specific insurance products that would be able to respond to an event of"
At the risk manager level, Beecroft said, organizations around the world should be thinking "about how they can diversify their reliance on power systems and on key technologies."
But Beecroft and other experts drive home that there is simply no reason for all of these things to happen after the fact.
"The concern becomes, now that we know, do we make the choice to act?" Beatty asked.
Something else that needs to happen sooner rather than later is the development of strong plans and procedures, especially on the part of power generation companies, said Lou Gritzo, vice president of research at FM Global.
Gritzo said the nonprofit North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) has already developed recommendations to help power generators respond in such an event.
"The big wildcard is, when push comes to shove and power generators have to make those difficult decisions about what they're going to do, do they do the right things? And how many of them do the right things?" he said.
The ideal scenario, said Gritzo, is that when the storm hits, the power generators most likely to be affected by the storm disconnect their power supply from the grid and adequate power can be temporarily supplied to the grid by other generators in areas where the storm is not going to be as intense.
The ability to make that happen quickly, said Gritzo, could go a long way toward shifting from a doomsday scenario to one of minimal consequences.
He also said risk managers should be asking power suppliers some hard questions to help them assess the need for additional investments, such as a backup power system.
Not taking any action would be a mistake. "If there's one number in this whole report that's significant," said Beatty, "it's the estimate that the return period of a Carrington-like event is estimated at around 150 years," a figure that can be backed up with evidence tracing back to 17 B.C.
Bottom line, he said, is that "the likelihood is high enough that we actually have a responsibility to act."
Additional 2015 Black Swan coverage:
Welcome to the ARkStorm
A 45-day superstorm floods California and dishes out economic catastrophe.
To Clean Up a Dirty Fight
A dirty bomb detonated in Manhattan could make a ghost town of the most populous city in the U.S.
Sponsored Content by IPS
Managing Chronic Pain Requires a Holistic Strategy
Chronic, intractable pain within workers' compensation is a serious problem.
The National Center for Biotechnology Information, part of the National Institutes of Health, reports that when chronic pain occurs in the context of workers' comp, greater clinical complexity is almost sure to follow.
At the same time, Workers' Compensation Research Institute (WCRI) studies show that 75 percent of injured workers get opioids, but don't get opioid management services. The result is an epidemic of debilitating addiction within the workers' compensation landscape.
As CEO and founder of Integrated Prescription Solutions Inc. (IPS), Greg Todd understands how pain is a serious challenge for workers' compensation-related medical care. Todd sees a related, and alarming, trend as well – the incidence rate for injured workers seeking permanent or partial disability because of chronic pain continues to rise.
Challenges aside, managing chronic pain so both the payer and the injured worker can get the best possible outcomes is doable, Todd said, but it requires a holistic, start-to-finish process.
Todd explained that there are several critical components to managing chronic pain, involving both prospective and retrospective solutions.
Prospective View: Fast, Early Action
"Having the wrong treatment protocol on day one can contribute significantly to bad outcomes with injured workers," Todd said. "Referred to as outliers, many of these 'red flag' cases never return to work."
Best practice care begins with the use of evidence-based UR recommendations such as ODG. Using a proven pharmacological safety and monitoring opioid management program is a top priority, but needs to be combined with an evidence-based medical treatment and rehabilitative process-focused plan. That means coordinating every aspect of care, including programs such as quality network diagnostics, in-network physical therapy, appropriate durable medical equipment (DME) and in more severe cases work hardening, which uses work (real or simulated) as a treatment modality.
Todd emphasized working closely with the primary treating physician, getting the doctor on board as soon as possible with plans for proven programs such as opioid Safety and Monitoring, EB PT facilities, patient progress monitoring and return-to-work or modified work duty recommendations.
"It comes down to doing the right thing for the right reasons for the right injury at the right time. To manage chronic pain successfully – mitigating disability and maximizing return-to-work – you have to offer a comprehensive approach."
— Greg Todd, CEO and founder, Integrated Prescription Solutions Inc. (IPS)
Alternative Pain Management Strategies
Unfortunately, pain management today is practically an automatic move to a narcotic approach, versus a non-invasive, non-narcotic option. To manage that scenario, IPS' pain management is in line with ODG as the most effective, polymodal approach to treatment. That includes N-drug formularies, adherence to therapy regiment guidelines and inclusive of appropriate alternative physical modalities (electrotherapy, hot/cold therapy, massage, exercise and acupuncture) that may help the claimant mitigate the pain while maximizing their ongoing overall recovery plan.
IPS encourages physicians to consider the least narcotic and non-invasive approach to treatment first and then work up the ladder in strength – versus the other way around.
"You can't expect that you can give someone Percocet or Oxycontin for two months and then tell them to try Tramadol with NSAIDS or a TENS unit to see which one worked better; it makes no sense," Todd explained.
He added that in many cases, using a "bottom up" treatment strategy alone can help injured workers return to work in accordance with best practice guidelines. They won't need to be weaned off a long-acting opioid, which many times they're prohibited to use while on the job anyway.
Chronic Pain: An Elusive Condition
Soft tissue injuries – whether a tear, sprain or strain – end up with some level of chronic pain. Often, it turns out that it's due to a vascular component to the pain – not the original cause of the pain resulting from the injury. For example, it can be due to collagen (scar tissue) build up and improper blood flow in the area, particularly in post-surgical cases.
"Pain exists even though the surgery was successful," Todd said.
The challenge here is simply managing the pain while helping the claimant get back to work. Sometimes the systemic effect of oral opioid-based drugs prohibits the person from going to work by its highly addictive nature. In a 2014 report, "A Nation in Pain," St. Louis-based Express Scripts found that nearly half of those who took opioid medications for more than a month in their first year of treatment then refilled their prescriptions for three years or longer. Many studies confirm that chronic opioid use has led to declining functionality with reduced ability to recover.
This can be challenging if certain pain killers are being used to manage the pain but are prohibitive in performing work duties. This is where topical compound prescriptions – controversial due to high cost and a lack of control – may be used. IPS works with a reputable, highly cost-effective network of compound prescription providers, with costs about 30-50 percent less than the traditional compound prescription
In particular compounded Non-Systemic Transdermal (NST) pain creams are proving to be an effective treatment for chronic pain syndromes. There is much that is poorly understood about this treatment modality with the science and outcomes now emerging.
Retrospective Strategies: Staying on Top of the Claim
IPS' retrospective approach includes components such as periodic letters of medical necessity sent to the physician, peer-to-peer and pharmacological reviews when necessary, toxicology monitoring and reporting, and even addiction rehab programs specifically tailored toward injured workers.
Todd said that the most effective WC pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) provides much more than just drug benefits, but rather combines pharmacy benefits with a comprehensive ancillary suite of services in a single portal assisting all medical care from onset of injury to RTW. IPS puts the tools at the adjustor fingertips and automates initial recommendations as soon as the claim in entered into its system through dashboard alerts. Claimant scheduling and progress reporting is made available to clients 24/7/365.
"It comes down to doing the right thing for the right reasons for the right injury at the right time," Todd said, "To manage chronic pain successfully – mitigating disability and maximizing return-to-work – you have to offer a comprehensive approach," he said.
This article was produced by the R&I Brand Studio, a unit of the advertising department of Risk & Insurance, in collaboration with IPS. The editorial staff of Risk & Insurance had no role in its preparation.