text:
More Topics
Creator's Hub
Collect Leads
Get Started
Tips & Tricks
For Business
Crying wolf. Why Turkish fears need not block Kurdish reform
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...
Like this document? Why not share!
Apk voor verzekerden
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
177 views
New approaches to prediction
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
230 views
Jihadisten verschillen niet veel va...
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
180 views
Inside the mind of the western jiha...
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
271 views
The mo of jihadi's in europe
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
204 views
Local jihadist networks in the neth...
by Rob Sentse, BSc.
197 views
Share SlideShare
Email sent successfully!
Size (px)
Start on
Show related SlideShares at end
WordPress Shortcode
Crying wolf. Why Turkish fears need not block Kurdish reform
Rob Sentse, BSc.
, Bachelor of Science (Social Sciences), Coach, Trainer, Mediator, Confidential counselor
Published on
May 30, 2014
Published in:
News & Politics
0 Comments
Full Name
Comment goes here.
12 hours ago
Are you sure you want to
Your message goes here
Be the first to comment
Be the first to like this
No Downloads
Total Views
On Slideshare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
No embeds
No notes for slide
Transcript of "Crying wolf. Why Turkish fears need not block Kurdish reform"
1. Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Europe Report N°227 | 7 October 2013 International Crisis Group Headquarters Avenue Louise 149 1050 Brussels, Belgium Tel: +32 2 502 90 38 Fax: +32 2 502 50 38 email@example.com
Table of Contents Executive Summary................................................................................................................... i Recommendations..................................................................................................................... iii I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 II. The 2013 Peace Process.................................................................................................... 3 A. A Question of Timing................................................................................................. 3 B. Overcoming Turkish Fears ........................................................................................ 5 C. A Heartening Distraction........................................................................................... 5 D. Regional Complications............................................................................................. 6 III. Who Are the Turkish Nationalists?.................................................................................. 8 A. The Republican Peoples Party (CHP)........................................................................ 9 B. The Nationalist Action Party (MHP) ......................................................................... 9 C. Justice and Development Party (AKP) Nationalists.................................................. 11 D. Other Groups ............................................................................................................. 12 IV. Recommitting to Reform.................................................................................................. 13 A. Mother Languages in Education................................................................................ 14 B. Decentralisation......................................................................................................... 16 C. Removing Ethnic Discrimination.............................................................................. 18 D. Changing Anti-terrorism Laws .................................................................................. 20 E. Making Political Representation Fairer .................................................................... 22 V. A Turkish-Kurdish Perception Gap.................................................................................. 24 A. De-demonising Kurdishness...................................................................................... 25 B. Reforming the Education System.............................................................................. 28 C. The Media: Everyone's Favourite Black Sheep ......................................................... 29 VI. Conclusion........................................................................................................................ 31 APPENDICES A. Map of Turkey .................................................................................................................. 32 B. Glossary ........................................................................................................................... 33 C. About the International Crisis Group .............................................................................. 35 D. Crisis Group Reports and Briefings on Europe and Central Asia since 2010.................. 36 E. Crisis Group Board of Trustees ........................................................................................ 38
International Crisis Group Europe Report N°227 7 October 2013 Executive Summary Negotiations underway since late 2012 between Turkey's government and the Kurdi- stan Workers' Party (PKK) are stalling. A ceasefire announced on 23 March 2013 remains precarious, as maximalist rhetoric gains renewed traction on both sides. While the PKK should be doing more to persuade Ankara that it wants a compromise peace, the government has a critical responsibility to fully address the longstanding democratic grievances of Turkey's Kurds. One reason it frequently gives for its hesi- tation is fear of a nationalist backlash. In fact, the peace process has already demon- strated how willing mainstream Turks would be to accept steps towards democrati- sation. A much bigger risk for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), as it heads into a two-year cycle of local, presidential and parliamentary elections, would be if the three-decade-old conflict plunges into a new cycle of violence. While the nationalist political opposition, including the Republican People'sParty (CHP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP), has largely been against negotiations with the PKK and Kurdish reforms, the public has mostly accepted them. The AKP government's steady stream of political gestures toward Kurds – including Kurdish- language television, legalisation of private Kurdish language courses, elective classes in schools and, most recently, plans to introduce education in Kurdish in private schools – has roused little noticeable public anger. Government-appointed delega- tions that fanned out across the country reported back that explanation and dialogue often changed public perceptions and readiness for compromise. Nationwide anti- government protests that broke out in May even unexpectedly triggered displays of solidarity toward Kurds from Turks in the west of the country, who had largely been dismissive about Kurdish grievances. But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken an increasingly nationalist line, even if still mixed with an outreach to Kurdish opinion. He has shied away from the easiest reform to make, a lowering of the 10 per cent national election threshold for parties to enter parliament. This would allow fairer political access for the main party of the Kurdish national movement, which typically wins 6-7 per cent of the na- tional vote. In a positive move, he has announced plans to introduce education in their mother language for Turkey's Kurds in private schools, though avoiding a commitment to full education or public services in Kurdish, a main demand of the community that makes up 12-15 per cent of the population.Hisgovernment hasfailed to redraft the constitution so as to remove any hint of ethnic discrimination. And lack of movement on the long-criticised anti-terrorism law still keeps thousands of non-violent Kurdish activists in preventive detention, some now for four years. Officials and commentators offer a number of explanations for this inaction. They include the failure of the PKK to fully withdraw from Turkey and disarm, the season of unrelated domestic protests and turmoil across Turkey's Middle Eastern borders, but, above all, the idea that Turkish voters will punish any government that pursues major Kurdish reforms. It is true there are deep-rooted fears among some Turks that the negotiationshave emboldened the PKK and that concessions would only pave the road to a separate Kurdish state. Others worry that the country would lose its Turkish identity. There is also considerable public resentment at offering concessions to the insurgency: for
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page ii decades militants have been officially described as terrorists and traitors, and they have indeed used terrorist tactics; but the public has not been informed that Kurds themselves have suffered the bulk of casualties, destruction of property and violation of rights. However, most of the Kurdish community still wants a settlement within Turkey. PKK leaders and the Kurdish movement, including the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), need to stop issuing threats that fuel the Turkish public's concerns about secession or a resurgence of violence. They should also denounce parallel state formations inside Turkey, including local militias, and signal the Kurds' desire to live in Turkey alongside Turks, with whom they share a common history. Given the unique opportunities of the current process, the PKK should maintain its commitment to the ceasefire and restart withdrawals. Turkish leaders, at the same time, must recommit todemocratic reform,including a new constitution and laws that eliminate any ethnic bias. A new constitution could balance natural references to the Turkish nation with clearemphasis on equal citizen- ship for all in the Republic of Turkey and guarantee the full right to use mother lan- guages in education and public life. Other reforms need to include a more decentral- isedgovernmentstructure, changestoanti-terror laws, and a lower election threshold. The leaders should also explain to public opinion the advantages of this road to an enduring peace and refrain from populist, accusatory statements towards the Kurdish movement simply for the sake of chasing the marginal Turkish nationalist vote. Above all, Turkey does not have to – and should not – link Kurdish reformstepsto the negotiations with the PKK. Such democratisation would improve access to rights, education and political life for all in the country. And it would help build the trust vital to ending a conflict that over three decades has killed 30,000 and inflicted enormous long-term damage on the economy, society and political culture.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page iii Recommendations To the government of Turkey: 1. Pursue democratic reforms to address Kurdish grievances independentlyofnego- tiations with the insurgent PKK and its jailed leader, by: a) committing to the full use of mother languages in education through embrac- ing and explaining the benefits of education in mother languages and sharing international research showing it is an essential building block for academic achievementandbetterfuturecommandofotherlanguages,inthiscaseTurkish; b) ensuring that the definition of Turkish citizenship in a new constitution is clearly not based on any single race, ethnicity, language or religion; c) leading a countrywide debate about local government, with thegoalofeventual devolution to elected local bodies of some powers, including aspects of edu- cation, policing and budgets; and d) lowering the 10 per cent electoral threshold for parties to enter parliament to at least the EU norm of 5 per cent, to allow fair political representation for Turkey's Kurdish movement and other parties. 2. Use language in public statements that de-demonises Kurdishness and explains the roadmap for planned democratisation, so as to allay the concerns of Turkey's Kurds about the process and to answer Turks' demands for transparency. 3. Reform the education system's curriculums to include acommon historyofTurks and Kurds, as well as full information about different cultures and peoples in Anatolian and regional history. To Turkey's Kurdish national movement: 4. Reiterate commitment to the ceasefire and PKK withdrawal from Turkish soil. 5. Spell out the goal of full PKK disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration, making no linkage between democratic reforms and renewed acts of violence. 6. End the creation of parallel state formations inside Turkey, including local militia ("public order units") that conduct road checks. 7. Ensure unified commitment to the peaceprocessfrom allKurdishlegalandinsur- gent organisation spokespersons, particularly in their public statements. 8. Reassure Turkish public opinion by actions that the Kurdish movement seeks a future for Kurds as equal citizens inside a democratising Turkey. 9. Specify and explain to public opinion Kurdish demands for decentralised local government. Istanbul/Brussels, 7 October 2013
International Crisis Group Europe Report N°227 7 October 2013 Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform I. Introduction The latest round of talks between the government and the armed Kurdishinsurgency, Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), in progress since late 2012, remains the best chance for peace.1 The new talks started, Turkish officials argue, not because casualties had become a decisive issue for either side, but because jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan indicated his readiness for a settlement.2 Regional developments, particularly in Syria and Iraq, also clearly played a role.3 Opposition political parties have been vocally against the process,4 but the public has so far shown little objection to the state's engaging Öcalan. The mysterious killing of three PKK women in Paris in January 2013 and the careful reactions of both the Turkish government and Kurdish movement to the possible provocation, revealed support for the talks from both the public and the negotiatingsides.5 Thearmy'sreflex to fight on has also been contained.6 In a May 2013 survey (commissioned by the rul- ing AKP), 91 per cent of respondents said "everyone should take responsibility for a Kurdish settlement", while 81 per cent said the process is for "the happiness of all".7 Therehavebeennoclash-related casualtiessincemid-March,despiteseveralincidents between the army and the insurgency and a rise in kidnappings by the PKK.8 1 In a televised interview on 19 December 2012, Prime Minister Erdoğan revealed that Turkey's Na- tional Intelligence Organisation (MIT) had been in talks with Abdullah Öcalan, the jailed leader of the insurgent Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), since the previous month. For previous reporting on the issue, see Crisis Group Europe Reports N°222, Turkey's Kurdish Impasse: The View from Di- yarbakır, 30 November 2012; N°219, Turkey: The PKK and a Kurdish Settlement, 11 September 2012; and N°213, Turkey: Ending the PKK Insurgency, 20 September 2011. 2 A senior Turkish official said Öcalan "has read a lot of books … has become anti-violence … wants to be more democratic". Crisis Group interview, Ankara, February 2013. In the leaked notes of a meeting with BDP deputies on 23 February 2013, Öcalan said he restarted the process to prevent "a coup" against Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation and the prime minister by what he called "parallel states" in Turkey. Notes published in Milliyet, 28 February 2013. 3 See Section II.D below. 4 See Sections III and IV below. 5 The women, including PKK co-founder Sakine Cansız, were assassinated in Paris on 10 January, drawing Kurds' suspicions immediately to the "deep Turkish state". French police charged a Tur- key-born Kurd with the crime on 21 January, and the case continues. 6 During a major 1999 ceasefire, Turkish forces killed hundreds of retreating militants. This time, the prime minister promised, there would be no operations during withdrawals. 7 "Survey reveals overwhelming support for settlement process", Today's Zaman, 6 May 2013. 8 Two soldiers died on 2 May after stepping on an old mine in the eastern Iğdır province. On 3 June, the first PKK-army clash since mid-March in Șırnak left one soldier wounded. On 28 June, Turkish soldiers fired on a crowd demonstrating in Diyarbakır's Lice district against construction of a gendarmerie outpost, killing one and wounding ten, while the protesters set construction workers' tents on fire. The PKK said a 4 July attack on an outpost was retaliation for the killing of the pro- tester. The PKK kidnapped two engineers in Bitlis province on 23 June (released on 27 June), a construction site manager in Tunceli on 25 June (released on 10 July), a gendarmerie sergeant in
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 2 But as the 2014 local and presidential elections near, and both sides vacillate between small, conciliatory steps and hardline rhetoric, this new quiet is hanging by a thread.9 Any collapse of the ceasefire would certainly come at a heavy price. The demise in June 2011 of the round of secret talks that began six years earlier triggered the worst upsurge in violence the country has seen since the 1990s, killingat least 928 people by March 2013.10 Crisis Group's fourth report since 2011 on Turkey's struggle to end the PKK insur- gency analyses the 2013peace process.It then examines the nationalist constituencies that have long dominated thinking on the Kurdish and PKK questions, often causing ideologues and politicians to oppose more rights for ethnic Kurds and others. The government hesitates over democratisation to address major Kurdish grievances partly because of its belief that "public opinion won't accept it".11 Through interviews primarily in Bursa, Istanbul, Erzurum and Ankara, the report explores whether that view has become outdated and whether, if the government summons the political courage to see through what it started, the public would be likely to go along. Diyarbakır on 28 June, three vehicle operators at a quarry in Bitlis on 9 June, a construction fore- man in Çukurca on 13 July and four construction workers in a gendarmerie outpost on 12 Septem- ber. On the other hand, thanks to the ongoing process and the ceasefire, the PKK was not blamed for the two car bombs that killed 53 Turks in Hatay's Reyhanlı district on the Syrian border on 11 May 2013, which the Turkish government blamed on the Syrian regime. 9 Local elections are due in March, presidential elections in July; parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 2015. 10 According to Crisis Group's unofficial count from open sources, the upsurge killed at least 304 security forces, police and village guards, 533 militants and 91 civilians. 11 Crisis Group interview, senior AKP official, Ankara, September 2012.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 3 II. The 2013 Peace Process A Question of TimingA. As peace talks picked up momentum in 2013, the government allowed unprecedented visits to Öcalan's prison on İmralı Island by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP). After one such visit, BDP deputies during 21 March Kurdish New Year celebrations in Diyarbakır province read out a message from Öcalan saying "the era of weapons is over" and heralding a time for "politics and ideas to speak".12 He did not mention disarmament or a future status for Kurds, instead calling on the PKK to withdraw its units beyond Turkish borders anddismissingclaimsthat Turkey'sKurds wanted a separate state. The PKK declared a ceasefire on 23 March, and a first small group of around fifteen armed militants (out of an estimated 2,000in Turkey) started leaving for northern Iraq on 8 May.13 The Kurdish movement sees three phases to the current peace process. These are outlined in Öcalan's February 2013 letter to the PKK leadership. The first phase com- prises the withdrawal of armed units; the second, democratic reforms from the gov- ernment (including setting up commissions in and outside of the parliament toassess and help the process); and the third, integration of the PKK into political and civilian life following disarmament.14 The government accepts this general outline, but thetwosidesdisagreeaboutwhen each phase ends. The Kurdish movement sees the start of withdrawals in compliance with Öcalan's call as fulfilling the first phase, whereas the government has insisted on the full withdrawal of PKK fighters from Turkey before it takes steps in the second stage. In the absence of major reciprocal moves or a roadmap from the government, thePKKcomplains,itsconcessionsareone-sided.15 SabriOk,ahigh-levelPKKmember, said on 25 July that the ceasefire would end on 15 October if the government did not legislate the steps agreed for phase two. Cemil Bayık, the co-president of the Kurdish national movement's umbrella organisation, the Kurdistan Communities Union (Koma Civakên Kurdistane, KCK), said on 5 September that the insurgency was 12 BDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaș reiterated that the era of armed struggle was "definitely over for the PKK", but added the militants were "waiting in the mountains" of northern Iraq. "Demirtaș: PKK için silahlı mücadele dönemi kesinlikle kapandı" ["Demirtaș: Era of armed struggle definitely over for the PKK"], İlke Haber, 23 May 2013; and Neșe Düzel, "Selahattin Demirtaș: Demokrasi olmadan PKK dağdan inmez" ["Demirtaș: PKK won't disarm without democracy"], Taraf, 23 April 2013. 13 A BDP official said the withdrawals were symbolic: "Thousands of civilian guerrillas will spring up [if the process fails]. It will come to a point even the BDP can't control". Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013. 14 "İşte Öcalan'ın 3 aşamalı çözüm planı" ["Öcalan's three-phase plan for a solution"], Zaman, 27 February 2013. 15 Prime Minister Erdoğan said on 15 August that the PKK had failed to fulfil its promise, removing only 20 per cent of its forces, most of them female, under-age or ageing. In a rebuttal a few days lat- er, the PKK said the percentage was incorrect, their forces had done their part, and they were con- tinuing to withdraw. "PKK: Yüzde yirmi tespiti saptırma" [PKK: Twenty per cent is misleading], Milliyet, 20 August 2013. BDP's co-chairman, Selahattin Demirtaş, said on 27 June that 80 per cent of the PKK had left their posts and were heading to the border. "Demirtaş'tan çekilme açıklaması" ["Statement about withdrawals from Demirtaş"], Sabah, 27 June 2013. Citing Turkish gendarmerie and police reports, another source said withdrawals were at 25 per cent in early August. "PKK silah bırakıp şehre iniyor" ["PKK is disarming and coming to the cities"], Taraf, 11 August 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 4 suspending withdrawals because it felt cheated by a "false package" of reforms, and PKK units would shoot back if attacked.16 In early August, a deputy prime minister said Ankara was determined to continue peaceefforts.17 Andthegovernmentdidmakegestures,settingupanewparliamentary commission in May to assess the process, with the participation of AKP and BDP (the opposition boycotted); giving deceased Kurdish politician Şerafettin Elçi's name to a new airport in Şırnak province; moving Öcalan to a larger cell; and a meeting of the prime minister with relatives of the 34 Kurds killed in Uludere in December 2011.18 A notable democratisation package announced on 30 September breathed new life into the process by promising to legalise education in mother languages in private schools, among other things.19 The nationalist opposition voiced criticism,but overall there was no public reaction to these small steps.20 AKP also made efforts to change the constitution, a core party pledge since 2007 that is theoretically supported by all political parties and desired by the public. After it began a third term in power in 2011, AKP set up a constitutional reconciliation commission with three members from each of the four parties represented in parlia- ment. But the group has largely been bogged down in political bickering and nation- alist posturing.21 As of end-September 2013, the parties had agreed on only 59 of 172 articles, none of them relating to the issues sensitive for the Kurdish process.22 16 "They don't want to solve the problem, they just want to crush us, to make war … the process is collapsing". Statement to BBC Turkish Service, 5 September 2013. 17 "There is not even a slightest weakening of will on either side …. The process is continuing on a normal trajectory [without] problems". Deputy Prime Minister Beșir Atalay, quoted in Fadime Özkan, "Bașbakan yardımcısı Beșir Atalay: Süreç gayet yolunda, biz bu ișe asılıyoruz" ["The process is going well, we are pushing ahead with this"], Star, 5 August 2013. Similarly, Interior Minister Muammer Güler said the plan was to work towards democratisation and normalisation steps once the armed elements had withdrawn from Turkey, followed by the third phase involving the elimina- tion of all weapons and movement to a political platform. "PKK'nin restine Güler'den cevap" ["Gü- ler responds to PKK raising the stakes"], CNN Türk, 29 August 2013. 18 The village of Uludere (Roboski in Kurdish) has been a traumatic symbol for Turkey's Kurds since December 2011, when the air force, mistaking them for PKK militants, fatally bombed 34 Kurdish villagers smuggling oil products on mules and horses near the Iraqi border. 19 See Section IV below. 20 Nationalist Action Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli said sarcastically the government might as well name the third bridge in Istanbul after Öcalan. "Bahçeli: Başbakan 3. Köprüye Öcalan'ın ismini mi verecek?" ["Will the prime minister name the bridge after Öcalan?"], Doğan News Agency, 14 July 2013. 21 "The commission is on life support. It's better if they just pull the plug". Crisis Group interview, AKP official, Ankara, June 2013. "No one knows what was agreed in the commission. I am an AKP deputy, and I don't even know. Society isn't discussing the constitution anymore". Crisis Group in- terview, Ankara, July 2013. 22 Deadlocks remain, particularly over the first four articles: the first three state that Turkey is a republic and list its characteristics (including being a secular, democratic, unitary state loyal to the nationalism of the republic's founder, Atatürk, with Turkish as its language). The fourth article makes the first three unchangeable. At one point, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said the first four articles were the party's red lines (its constitutional proposals reflected this), but later said that CHP's proposals in the constitutional commission are not binding for the entire party, its position on education in mother languages and other issues can change, and the only true red line is preser- vation of secularism. "Kılıçdaroğlu: Senin TC ile alıp veremediğin ne?" ["Kılıçdaroğlu: What is your problem with the 'Republic of Turkey'?"], Hürriyet, 27 April 2013; Amberin Zaman, "CHP'nin kırmızı çizgileri yumușuyor" ["CHP's red lines are softening"], Taraf, 17 June 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 5 Overcoming Turkish FearsB. On 3 April, the government announced a list of 63 academics, journalists, business- men, entertainment celebrities and civil society figures who would join delegations of "Wise Persons" tasked to explain the peace efforts and gather feedback from the public in each of Turkey's seven geographical regions. In over two months, they held 60,000 meetings throughout the country. Their reports, presented to the prime min- ister, highlighted concerns among both Turkish and Kurdish publics regarding the peace process.23 The Wise Persons could not change decades of scepticism in a couple of months. They faced some nationalist backlash, but the reactions against them were not as prohibitive as initially feared or as the pro-nationalist media made them out to be.24 Instead, the leader of one of the groups explained, they showed how dialogue could affect attitudes.25 Political perceptions quickly changed into human ones in the meetings. A Kurd- ish mother who could not speak Turkish told of how three of her children in the mountains and her husband [were killed] by the police, adding "I cry after other people's children, too, I know what it is like to lose a child". It changed the entire atmosphere in the room.26 The Kurdish movement made a rare attempt to explain its version of a solution to western Turks, when a delegation of BDP deputies visited the nationalist Black Sea region in February 2013. But it cut the visit short after protests and attacks by small but violent mobs in Sinop and Samsun provinces.27 A Heartening DistractionC. Focus on the peace process was distracted by a wave of unrelated protests that started in Istanbul on 27 May 2013 over government plans to construct a shopping complex on Gezi Park in Taksim Square. The demonstrations and harsh police crackdowns with pepper gas unexpectedly spread through other urban centres and continued for weeks.28 Five people were killed, and Erdoğan and AKP struggled to retain their 23 See Section IV below. 24 In the Black Sea region, for instance, even in the worst cases, there were only 60 or 70 people demonstrating. Wise Persons Black Sea region delegation report made available to Crisis Group, 2013. BDP officials in western, conservative Bursa province said demonstrations against the Wise Persons there also did not exceed 50 people and involved the Workers' Party and youth arms of the Nationalist Action Party (MHP). Crisis Group interview, June 2013. 25 "As they deliberated, they became more moderate". Crisis Group interview, Fuat Keyman, mem- ber of Wise Persons Aegean region delegation, Istanbul, June 2013. "The effort to move the issues, which have been progressing on a platform of violence and hatred for the past 30 years, to one of dialogue was met with a positive reaction". Member of the Wise Persons Mediterranean region del- egation, personal report made available to Crisis Group, June 2013. 26 Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, head of Wise Persons Marmara region delegation, personal report on Wise Persons visits (in Turkish), 2013, available on www.denizulkearibogan.net. 27 A BDP official said the visit was planned long in advance and such a reaction was not foreseen. Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013. 28 Protesters were mainly secular, urban, middle class youth unhappy with what they perceived as the government's (particularly the prime minister's) authoritarian style, felt their identity and val- ues were threatened and were frustrated that opposition parties did not represent them. See also Crisis Group blog, "Turkey's protests: Politics of an unexpected movement", 4 June 2013, http:// bit.ly/15OBA00.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 6 support base amid an uptick in authoritarian rhetoric and damage to the govern- ment's image at home and abroad.29 The pro-Kurdish BDP was divided over the protests, and the Kurdish movement mostly stayed out of them.30 A non-Kurdish BDP deputy, Sırrı Süreyya Önder, found fame early on by standing in front of a bulldozer to prevent it from entering Gezi Park, which, when later occupied by protesters, witnessed rare scenes of camaraderie between Kurds and left-wing and even nationalist Turks. In social media, some main- stream Turks supported Kurdish protests against the construction of a gendarmerie post in the Lice district of Diyarbakır, particularly after soldiers killed a Kurdish demonstrator on 28 June. On the same day, Turks marched in secular neighbour- hoods of Kadıköy and Beșiktaș in Istanbul to show support for the Lice protests. This is new for Turkey's Kurds, who have always felt most Turks did not share their pain and saw them as at the "other".31 Regional ComplicationsD. Upheavals in the Middle East, particularly involving Kurds in Syria and Iraq, have renewed Turkey's interest in solving its Kurdish issue at home. They also make this goal harder to reach. Ankara clearly wishes to extend its influence into Syria and Iraq as much as possible, in particular reinforcing its close relationship with Iraqi Kurds.32 However, the decision to publicly stand up for ousted President Morsi in Egypt increased a sense that it risked becoming trapped in the region's complexities and distracted from domestic reforms. In Syria, Turkey initially reacted negatively when the PKK's sister party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), announced plans to set up an independent council to run Kurdish regions in the north on 19 July 2013.33 Ankara sent troops to the border, 29 A MetroPOLL survey of politicians' popularity on 3-12 June found that 72.5 per cent of Turks liked President Gül as a political figure, 53.5 per cent liked Prime Minister Erdoğan, 29.3 per cent liked the nationalist MHP opposition leader Devlet Bahçeli, and 26.7 per cent liked main opposition CHP's leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Today's Zaman, 16 June 2013. 30 BDP's Istanbul organisation met on 8 June, asking for the government to apologise to the public; BDP deputy Sırrı Süreyya Önder said Gezi events showed Kurds and Turks can struggle together. On the other hand, another BDP deputy likened protesters to coup-plotters on 30 June, saying they seek to achieve through other means what they could not at the ballot box. 31 The brother of the killed nineteen-year-old said, "when I saw on television people carrying my brother's picture in Istanbul, Ankara, and Mersin, I felt touched, and that helped heal my sorrow". "Could a murder derail the Kurdish peace process?", Al-Monitor, 8 July 2013. 32 "The future cannot be constructed with their [post-First World War] Sykes-Picot maps, with co- lonial methods, and with newly concocted [Western] state understandings based on artificial maps and mutually hostile nationalist ideologies. We will break the mould drawn for us by Sykes-Picot". Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, speech to Dicle University, 15 March 2013. Deputy Prime Min- ister Beșir Atalay referred to the "brotherhood" of the Kurds and Turks in the region: "Look at Nusaybin [in Turkey] and Qamishli [in Syria]. The borders are such that it looks like a road goes through the same city". Fadime Özkan, "Bașbakan yardımcısı Beșir Atalay: Süreç gayet yolunda, biz bu ișe asılıyoruz" ["Deputy PM Atalay: The process is going well, we are pushing ahead with this"], Star, 5 August 2013. See also Crisis Group Europe Report N°255, Blurring the Borders: Syrian Spillover Risks for Turkey, 30 April 2013. 33 Turkish priorities are to maintain the unity of Syria, by stopping Kurds from declaring autonomy, and avoid clashes on the border. Fighting between the PYD and the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Nusra front killed four Turks in July-August 2013 in the border town of Ceylanpınar, across from Ras al- Ain. But persistent reports suggest that Syrian opposition fighters crossed the border at Ceylanpı- nar point to a fight against the PYD in November 2012, though Turkish officials deny this. See Cri-
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 7 put other forces on alert and signalled readiness to intervene militarily.34 Then,show- ing how events had changed old reflexes, it invited PYD leader Saleh Muslim to Turkey in July and August for meetings with high-level officials.35 Turkish nationalists still protest that talking to the PYD legitimises the PKK, but their objections have less weight, as Turkey is openly negotiating with the PKK and publicly sticking to the peace process.36 In the meantime, Ankara is increasing cooperation with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, particularly in trade and energy.37 Once again, traditional wisdom holds that nationalists would oppose any such understandings with Syria's and Iraq's Kurds, due to concern that they would encourage Turkey's Kurds to form a joint state with their regional kin.38 But Prime Minister Erdoğan and AKP have defied this supposed reflex with no apparent domestic political backlash. sis Group Report, Blurring the Borders, op. cit., p. 25. For more on PYD, see Crisis Group Middle East Report N°136, Syria's Kurds: A Struggle Within a Struggle, 22 January 2013. 34 Prime Minister Erdoğan said the formation in north Syria "is the structuring of the PKK terror organisation … and this is indeed among our sensitive equilibriums. We will not say 'OK' to this formation from here …. It is impossible for us to tolerate a terror structuring …. It is, of course, our most natural right to intervene there". Interview with Kanal 24, 25 July 2013. 35 Turkish officials called for the PYD to join the Syrian National Coalition and not seek de facto autonomy in northern Syria, while assuring the PYD that Turkey would stay out of the fighting be- tween Syrian Kurds and al-Qaeda-linked groups. In turn, the PYD assured Turkey no declaration of autonomy was planned. "Turkey meets with PYD leader, other Syrian Kurds", Hürriyet Daily News, 15 August 2013. 36 "Imagine that for years you have been taking steps to resolve the Kurdish issue at home, to give your Kurdish population's rights back to them. It would be a contradiction if you oppose when the Kurds in Syria want their rights, too". Mehmet Ocaktan, editor in chief, Akșam, interview with Ha- ber Türk Gündem, 13 August 2013. 37 Iraq is currently Turkey's largest export partner after Germany, and with planned oil pipelines, could also become a significant import partner. Prime Minister Erdoğan and KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani discussed in Turkey on 31 July details of a pipeline to carry oil from northern Iraq to the Turkish border, expected to start export of 200,000 barrels per day in 2016. Barzani re- portedly assured the Turks the KRG opposed division of Syria and declaration of an independent Kurdish state during a Kurdish National Conference planned this autumn. "Barzani eases Turkey's concerns over Kurdish conference", Today's Zaman, 2 August 2013. 38 "Turkey was unable to stop the creation of a [Kurdish] regional administration in northern Iraq. Now with an autonomous region in [northern] Syria and democratic autonomy [for Turkey's Kurds] at the end of the peace process in Turkey, there can be a Kurdish confederation". Armağan Kuloğlu, retired major general, interview with Haber Türk Gündem, 13 August 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 8 III. Who Are the Turkish Nationalists? Nationalism encompasses three ideologies with few consistent social or geographic distinctions: ulusalcılık,milliyetçilik and Atatürkçülük, withthelastoftenoverlapping with, but not limited to, the first two. Ulusalcılık is a relatively new term, referring to the secular, republican Kemalist ideology, more sympathetic to left-wing politics and focusing on preserving the homogeneous Turkish nation-state created in 1923. Its main political representative is the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Milliyetçilik is a right-wing, conservative ideologywithIslamist undertonesglorifying parts of Ottoman culture and history,includingspreadingaTurkish-Islamistideology to the world and underlining kinship with other Turkic peoples. It applies mainly to the Nationalist Action Party's (MHP) constituency (and thesmallerGreatUnionParty, BBP). Atatürkçü (pro-Atatürk) signals attachment to the principles of the republic's founder, often including but not limited to a Turkish nationalism that brushes over ethnic distinctions, saying simply all who see themselves as Turks are Turks.39 The Turkish Republic has nationalist roots, and patriotism is taught from birth, but Turkish nationalism is not the majority ideological affiliation. According to a September 2012 survey, just 22 per cent of the population define themselves as pri- marily nationalist (15 per cent milliyetçi, 2 per cent ulusalcı, 5 per cent ülkücü, or idealist nationalist, which refers to members or sympathisers of MHP's radicalised youthorganisation,also knownasthe"GreyWolves"), while28percentlist Atatürkçü as their defining identity.40 In a January 2013 poll, 17.5 per cent called themselves milliyetçi, 3 per cent ulusalcı and 16 per cent pro-republican and pro-Atatürk.41 This suggests that only half the population or less is primarily aligned with ideologies that usually oppose reforms needed to address Kurdish grievances.42 Most nationalists focus on preserving one nation and the unitary state and reject approaches they think would lead to Turkey's division. A small ultra-nationalist minority within the milliyetçi group privately talks of a radical "love Turkey or leave it" approach that potentially accepts splitting the country: We should hold a census to find out how many Kurds there are, and hold a refer- endum among them on whethertheywant to separatefrom Turkey. Ifthemajority says "yes", we should … let them have their state. But then all Kurds [from western Turkey] should also go there. I bet they would ask to join Turkey again after a few 39 Aspart ofthenewstateideologyin1923,Atatürk'sTurkishnationalismputsemphasisonthewill of different peoples to live together as one nation. In a survey, only 10 per cent of the Atatürkçü group favoured a second official language, but 68 per cent supported freedom for different cultural identi- ties. "Anayasaya Dair Tanım ve Beklentiler Raporu" ["Report on constitutional definitions and ex- pectations"], The Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), September 2012. 40 "Anayasaya Dair Tanım ve Beklentiler Raporu" ["Report on constitutional definitions and expec- tations"], The Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), September 2012. Most of the remainder consider themselves conservatives(around16percent), islamcı[pro-Islamic](around 19 per cent), democrat (7 per cent) or social democrat (around 6 per cent). 41 "Kemalist" was used for the pro-Atatürk segment. 38 per cent saw themselves as primarily con- servative, 17 per cent as either social democrat or socialist. "Türkiye Sosyal-Siyasal Eğilimler Araş- tırması" ["Survey on Turkey's Social-Political Tendencies"], Kadir Has University, January 2013. 42 In a January 2010 poll, 50 per cent called themselves Atatürkçü and 45 per cent nationalist, but the survey allowed them to choose multiple identities. Poll by Adil Gür quoted in "Türkiye'nin yüzde kaçı Atatürkçü?" ["What per cent of Turkey is pro-Atatürk?"], Milliyet, 27 January 2010.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 9 months …. If the referendum doesn't pass, however, there should be [an all-out effort] to eradicate the PKK from the mountains and to [eliminate] Öcalan.43 The Republican Peoples Party (CHP)A. The main opposition CHP received around 26 per cent of the national vote in the 2011 elections. Its strongholds are along the western Aegean and Mediterranean coasts and Tunceli province in the south east.44 Set up in 1923 by Atatürk, it has been close to thearmedforces,theprime promoteroftraditionalTurkish nationalism. CHP appears relatively open to democratisation, emphasising secularism and European Union (EU) membership, but retains authoritarian tendencies from its past. The party is not homogeneously left-wing; it includes a sizeable ulusalcı faction but also a liberal group and remnants of centre-right parties that imploded in the early 2000s. It has alternated between supporting the peace process and criticising it, accusing the government of a lack of transparency.45 On 5 January 2013, shortly afterthe processbecamepublic, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlusaid,"wewillsupport, not hinder the process". He then changed course, saying on 28 April that the process was the "first phase of a more comprehensive plan to establish a Greater Kurdistan on Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish soil".46 Gülseren Onanç resigned as deputy chairperson shortly after saying the same month that polls showed 65 per cent of CHP voters sup- ported the Kurdish opening, although party officials do not publicly link the two events.InMay,someCHPdeputiesissueda"calltounity"opposingtalkswiththePKK. Whiletheofficialparty positionappears undecided,evenconfused,itsconstituency is more positive toward the peace process. In the Aegean region, a CHP stronghold, the Wise Persons delegation said, support for a settlement was growing and could soon reach 70 per cent.47 The Nationalist Action Party (MHP)B. MHP was founded with a far-right, Turkish-Islamist ideology in 1969 by former Colonel Alpaslan Türkeș. Its militant youth arm, called Ülkücüler (idealist national- ists, referring to the individuals), Ülkü Ocakları (referring to the idealist nationalist "hearths", or clubs) or the Grey Wolves, rallied against communism and the left in 43 Crisis Group interview, Turkish bureaucrat, August 2013. 44 Some 8 per cent of CHP's support comes from voters who define themselves primarily as nation- alists (5 per cent milliyetçi, 3 per cent ulusalcı), while some 67 per cent are pro-Atatürk (Atatürkçü). "Anayasaya Dair Tanım", TESEV, op. cit. 45 A party official said, "we are not informed about what is going on in the peace process. There is no debate about it in parliament. It was not brought about by social consensus". Crisis Group inter- view, Bursa, June 2013. 46 "CHP'den İmralı sürecine destek" ["CHP supports the İmralı process"], Milliyet, 6 June 2013; "Erdoğan-Öcalan'a ortak olmayız" ["We won't join with Erdoğan-Öcalan"], Hürriyet, 28 April 2013. On an August 2013 visit to Iraq, Kılıçdaroğlu said "we did not support the process, because we did not know how the issue could be resolved. But we want it resolved". "Kılıçdaroğlu, 'PKK sorununu çözecekse, Irak da rahatlayacaktır'" ["Kılıçdaroğlu, Iraq will be relieved when PKK solves its prob- lem"], IHA, 21 August 2013. 47 Wise Persons Aegean region delegation report made available to Crisis Group, 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 10 the party's earliest days.48 MHP received almost 13 per cent of the nationwide vote in the 2011 elections.49 MHP politicians and pro-MHP media have been against a Kurdish opening since its inception and describe it as treachery. The party held its first rally against the process in conservative, western Bursa province in March 2013, and other rallies fol- lowed in İzmir, Erzurum, Adana, Konya, and Elazığ.50 MHP's leader, Devlet Bahçeli, promised to have Prime Minister Erdoğan impeached for treason over the talks with the PKK.51 A party official argued that the process was "setting up a parallel state in the region".52 MHP's youth arm has been responsible for the most organised opposi- tion throughout the country, particularly against the Wise Persons' meetings. The party's vision for Turkey is a national unity that "supersedes differences in language, religion and ethnicity".53 For MHP, the problem in Turkey is not a Kurdish problem, but one of relations between the individual and the state: "It is about indi- vidual freedoms. We are looking at a new constitution to … solve the problems with the freedom of media and checks and balances".54 Some see any Kurdish problem as one only of regional economic backwardness.55 MHP considers the PKK a terrorist organisation that can only be beaten militarily and wants to cut off all communica- tion with Öcalan and move him from his island jail to a common prison.56 Although the party leadership has attacked the process, its voter base seems to have a more conciliatory approach and has not taken to the streets in large numbers, as demonstrated by relatively modest turnouts for MHP protest rallies in the western cities of Bursa and Izmir.57 An elderly MHP voter said, "I can't say I support the peace process, but I say 'let's wait and see'. It is good if there really will be no more deaths. 48 A wolf is the mythical mother of the Turks in national legends and symbolises honour. 49 Around 72 per cent of its voters define themselves primarily as nationalists (39 per cent milliyetçi, 33 per cent ülkücü), 17 per cent as pro-Atatürk. "Anayasaya Dair Tanım", TESEV, op. cit. 50 In Bursa, an angry crowd of supporters chanted: "Tell us to strike, and we will strike, tell us to die, and we will die". MHP leader Bahçeli responded: "Don't worry, the time will come for that, too". The Bursa state prosecutors office started an investigation against him for "inciting enmity among the public". 51 MHP leader Bahçeli said on 30 August, "the AKP has given the country away to the PKK …. The prime minister is looking for ways to divide the country". On 7 May, a day before PKK withdrawals were to begin, he said it was "a crime to watch and remain inactive as terrorists leave Turkey". "AKP ülkeyi PKK'ya peșkeș çekmiștir" ["AKP has given the country away to the PKK"], Sözcü, 1 July 2013. 52 Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. 53 MHP 2011 election manifesto (in Turkish), www.mhp.org.tr. 54 Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. 55 "[There are] regional inequalities in development. If we [increase the welfare] of every region, Kurds' demands will disappear …. There are problems imposed on the south east. Whatever my problems are in Turkey, theirs are the same". Crisis Group interview, pro-MHP businessman, Bursa, June 2013. 56 MHP 2011 election manifesto, op. cit. Devlet Bahçeli advocated the death penalty (abolished in Turkey) for Öcalan in an interview with CNN Türk, 24 August 2010, http://bit.ly/1cEyM7k. A party official asked: "If it is a solution to find and kill Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, why is it not a so- lution to kill [PKK's military leader] Murat Karayılan?". Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. 57 Bursa residents said the MHP rally had 15,000-20,000 people, with many bussed in from other provinces. The estimates for its April 2013 Izmir rally vary between 350,000 (MHP) and 50,000 (AKP). Crisis Group interviews, June 2013; "Mitingde sayısal tartışma" ["Debate about numbers at the rally"], Yeni Asır, 21 April 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 11 We will also test the PKK's sincerity".58 Despite the party's emphasis on a security- oriented approach, some of its voters concede that past efforts for a military solution failed and hurt Turkey as a whole.59 Justice and Development Party (AKP) NationalistsC. Nationalist voters, cadres and factions also feature within the ruling AKP.60 In 2009, after it publicly launched a democratic opening to push for Kurdish reforms, it showed its sincerity by censuring some loud critics within the party.61 Still, the prime minister himself has often engaged in nationalist rhetoric, to the point where the BDP blames him for encouraging violence against Kurds (for instance, suggesting BDP deputies should lose immunity from prosecution and advocating a return to the death penalty).62 Erdoğan's mixed messaging appears to be part of a strategy to camouflage the government's intended policy by catering to what is assumed to be strong Turkish nationalist voter sentiment.63 AKP does face electoral risks in pursuing the PKK and Kurdish peace processes. MHP will probably try to outflank it with radical nationalist talk, an approach that neither reflects the thinking of all its members nor Turkey's urgent need to find a new understanding with Kurds. AKP should not follow MHP down this dead end, especially since the political downside to reforms appears limited. A former AKP minister believes that reforming constitutional citizenship and the definition of Turkishness, for instance, would cost AKP up to 5 per cent of its voters.64 But AKP could lose many more votes if fighting restarts and soldiers' funeralsreturn to western Turkish towns and newspaper front pages. 58 Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013. The Kurdish co-founder of a peace platform in western Bursa province said, "out of 100 emails we get, only three to five include insults, 30 may be negative reactions of some sort, but 65 are supporting us. An MHP supporter congratulated me. I think there are many people within AKP or MHP who are silently supporting us". Crisis Group interview, Rüștem Avcı, İlle de Barış (Peace no matter what) platform, Bursa, June 2013. 59 "It is good that there are no more deaths, but more importantly, if Turkey had not spent all that money on fighting terrorism, I wonder how many Turkeys it would be worth today!". Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013. 60 Some 15 per cent of AKP supporters define themselves as nationalists (all milliyetçi). "Anayasaya Dair Tanım", TESEV, op. cit. 61 AKP member of parliament (MP) from Kastamonu and former state minister Murat Başesgioğlu resigned in 2010, saying the opening was a last drop in his problems with the party. Ankara MP Zekai Özcan, arguing the 2009 opening was destroying the unitary state and legitimising the PKK, resigned in April 2010 and joined the MHP in August 2010. Antalya MP Ziya İrbeç resigned in January 2011, calling the Kurdish opening a "wound" in national unity. 62 "When the language of the government [towards Kurds] changes, the entire society's language can change". Crisis Group interview, BDP official, Bursa, June 2013. About the prime minister's fre- quent changes of position, the MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman complained: "There are so many Erdoğans. Which one do I believe?" Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, Ankara, July 2013. 63 "[Erdoğan] has amazing leadership. He says one thing in the morning, something else in the evening, and no one questions it. He can send someone to İmralı [to talk to Öcalan] while himself talking about hanging him". Crisis Group interview, AKP official, Ankara, July 2013. 64 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. A Turkish pollster said the processes have only cost AKP 3 to 4 per cent, even if nationalist parties have benefited from drumming up Turkey's old na- tional unity reflex. Adil Gür, quoted in "Gür: BDP barajı aştı, AKP düşüşte, MHP yükselişte, CHP karışık" ["Gür: BDP passes the threshold, AKP in decline, MHP on the rise, CHP is confused"], Akșam, 4 May 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 12 In fact, Erdoğan might not face major popular resistance if he truly committed to democratic reforms. According to a leading Kurdish member of AKP, the few in the party who say the Kurdish reforms would not pass in parliament or would not be accepted by the people appear to do so not because of feedback they get from the public, but because of their own nationalist upbringing.65 Other GroupsD. Despite the ideological divide between them, the far-right, nationalist, pro-Islamic Great Union Party (BBP) and the socialist, secular, Workers' Party (IP) – both polling less than 1 per cent of the vote – both refuse to acknowledge a Kurdish problem in Turkey and voice the same conspiracy theories about the process being a U.S./ Western plot to create a puppet Kurdish state in the region.66 Traditionally a nation- alist actor, the army is a staunch supporter of a security-oriented approach.67 Since it came to power in 2002, however, AKP has steadily limited the military's political role; thus its reaction to the latest talks has been muted.68 There are also groups that at times play a positive role in the process. Forinstance, the faith-based, non-political Hizmet(Service)movementofself-exiledIslamicscholar Fethullah Gülen has been considered a nationalist actor in cultural terms with its promotion of Turkishness, particularly through the opening of Turkish schools worldwide and conduct of a big annual Turkish language contest. The Kurdish movement sees its well-organised Turkish rival behind the arrests of its activists and as a threat to its sway over Kurds.69 Still, the Gülenists have recently taken a reformist position on some of the central issues, such as mother languages and ethnicity, with Gülen saying he is open to education in mother languages and other figures speaking positively about redefining citizenship and Turkishness.70 65 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 66 BBP was founded by a former head of MHP's youth wing who believed the term "Kurdish issue" was an insult to Kurds put forward bythePKKto prepareforsecession.Heurgedanuncompromising fight against terror. Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu, quoted in "Kürt sorunu kavramı Kürtlere hakarettir" ["The concept of a Kurdish problem is an insult to Kurds"],Digitürk-Keçi,December2007.IPdoesnotseea Kurdish problem in terms of democratic rights, but from a class-based approach says it arises main- ly from feudalism and lack of development in the south east. 2006 party program, www.ip.org.tr. 67 See, for instance, Altay Tokat, retired lieutenant general and former gendarmerie head,Mücadele ve Çözüm: PKK Bölücü Terörü [Struggle and Solution: PKK's SeparatistTerror],(Istanbul,Nergiz). 68 Referring to the coup-plot cases started in 2007, in which some 1,000 high-ranking officers have been arrested or brought to trial, a retired brigadier general said, "I don't think the army wants to do anything [to derail the Kurdish process]. It is subdued .… An army that can't react [to its officers being arrested in large numbers] won't react to anything else". Crisis Group interview, Haldun Solmaztürk, Ankara, July 2013. 69 See Crisis Group Report, Turkey's Kurdish Impasse, op. cit. 70 "Accepting the principle of education in mother languages is a necessity for a state that is fair to- wards its citizens …. [But] Kurdish parents need to teach Turkish to their children". Fethullah Gü- len, interview with Iraq's Kurdish language Rudaw newspaper, in Turkish on fgulen.com, 27 June 2013. A leading figure in the movement announced that its schools were ready to give education in mother languages, adding that the practice would unite Turkey, not divide it. He added: "A large part of Kurds and Muslims in this country don't feel themselves as part of the Turkish concept …. A more inclusive definition can be created". Cemal Ușak, deputy president, Writers and Journalists Foundation, quoted in "Gülen cemaati okullarının Kürtçe eğitime hazır olduğunu düşünüyorum" ["I think Gulen movement schools are ready for education in Kurdish"], T24, 19 April 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 13 IV. Recommitting to Reform While most mainstream Turksdonot oppose democratic rights forKurdsormembers of other groups as individual, equal citizens of a unitary Turkey, defining these as a collective right still causes discomfort.71 Even ultra-nationalists say they have noth- ing against Kurds and blame all problems on the PKK, with the implication that Kurds and Turks are brothers as long as the former accept a Turkish identity and do not demandspecificallyKurdishlinguistic,ethnicorself-governance rights.72 Fordec- ades, the issue was portrayed simply as the PKK problem in the south east; many Turks, therefore, believe eliminatingthe PKK and ensuring the equality of citizens un- der the law would solve all injustices. In previous reports, Crisis Group has outlined five grievances most Kurds want the government to address: using mother languages in education and public life; in- troducing a decentralised local government structure;removingethnicdiscriminatory bias from the constitution and laws; lowering the national election threshold for politi- cal parties; and amending anti-terrorism laws to decriminalise non-violent dissent.73 Kurdish frustrations were partially addressed in a 30 September AKP democrati- sation package, importantly including measures to allow some classes in Kurdish in private schools and removing the morning pledge of allegiance, which Kurds felt was discriminatory.74 Implementation will be subject to further legislation and changes in regulations. Nationalist media outlets have already described the package asacon- cession to the PKK.75 The PKK criticised it as "trying to satisfy society with crumbs".76 71 According to MetroPOLL's research in September 2013, 50 per cent of Turks support democratis- ing reforms as a solution to the Kurdish problem (without talking to the PKK), while another 36 per cent believe there should also be dialogue and negotiations (with the PKK). Only 8 per cent sup- ported a military solution. "People overwhelmingly support democracy as answer to Kurdish issue". Today's Zaman, 6 October 2013, http://bit.ly/GCKnc9. 72 A much-used slogan is "Türk-Kürt kardeş, PKK kalleş" (Turks and Kurds are brothers, PKK is the backstabber). "They call it the Kurdish problem …. Kurd is one thing, the PKK terrorist organisation is another. … We are [indivisible] with the Kurdish people like a nail and the skin under it. [Terror] is a black thorn between us". Pakize Akbaba, president, Association of [Turkish] Martyrs' Mothers, interview with Ulusal Kanal, 2013, http://bit.ly/17wCZZD. "It's wrong to say all Kurds are PKK …. there are Kurds who have done a lot for Turkey". Crisis Group interview, MHP supporter, Bursa, June 2013. 73 Crisis Group Report, Turkey's Kurdish Impasse, op. cit. To these, an AKP officialaddedsomeform of a truth and reconciliation commission (he called it a "confrontation commission"), and an AKP MP said he would support this. Crisis Group interviews, Ankara, July 2013. Kurds consider it cru- cial that Turks know and understand what has happened to them, but even today, few Turks know what occurred in the south east during the 1980s and 1990s. 74 The package announced by Prime Minister Erdoğan supported discussing the lowering the elec- toral threshold; state aid to political parties that receive at least 3 per cent of the national vote (thus to BDP); lifting a ban on women's headscarves in the public sector; lifting the ban in the political parties law on election propaganda in languages other than Turkish; increasing penalties for hate crimes and setting up a Discrimination and Equality Board; and allowing reinstatement of (mostly Kurdish) names for villages and towns. 75 For instance, see "PKK'ya jest" ["A gesture for the PKK"] and "Türbanın altından anadilde eğitim çıktı" ["Education in mother language was behind the moves on headscarves"], both in Aydınlık, 11 August 2013. 76 "The AKP government has shown that it has not understood the Kurdish question and has not adopted a serious approach towards resolving the question … instead of settlement [it] has chosen a policy of non-settlement … [of] buying time and winning another election … in an attempt to con-
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 14 If the government wants to keep the peace process going, it should widen it to ad- dress all major Kurdish grievances, particularly full education in mother languages in state and private schools, and end the lengthy preventive jailing of thousands of Kurdish activists.77 Mother Languages in EducationA. The most widely-heard demand among Turkey's Kurds is the right to education in Kurdish, as well as the right to use it in all areas of life including public services. The current constitution and laws are major obstacles, although officials believe the 30 September promise to introduce some Kurdish lessons requires no constitutional changes.78 However, a sustainable peace will require further steps on this issue, and taking them sooner would give the government more flexibility in other areas of the negotiations. The government also needs to defuse deep fears among nationalist Turks that allowing full education and public servicesin motherlanguageswouldlead to a parallel state and division of the country. A middle-class western Turk explained her concern: Education in mother languages may not have faced a strong reaction under nor- mal circumstances. But now it is not clear to me what is happening in this [peace] process. On the Kurdish side, you hear statements like "we want autonomy". There is clearly talk of a [separate] Kurdistan [in Turkey].79 A July 2013 survey found that citizens are divided: 48.2 per cent supported Kurds in predominantly Kurdish areas receiving education in their mother language, 47.9 per cent were opposed.80 The government has as yet made no attempt to explain inter- national best practices on language education to the larger public. Prime Minister Erdoğan has zigzagged on education in mother languages, initially rejecting it out- right.81 But if he acted to fully guarantee this right, he could find himself pushing at an open door. There are conciliatory approaches in his own party. An AKP official argued that the official language should be Turkish, but there should not be any obsta- cles to studying in Kurdish, adding that "people can't choose their mother language or race. You can't get anywhere with bans".82 Indeed, there has been very little public tinue and devise a cover for political colonialism and cultural genocide". Statement, Copresidency of the KCK Executive Council, 1 October 2013. 77 A prominent columnist said it was "too little too late". Cengiz Çandar, "'Paket, 'süreç', 'böl-yönet', 'çözüm'" ["Package, process, divide-and-conquer, solution"] Radikal, 13 September 2013. 78 "Demokratikleşme Paketi'nden çıkan Kürtçe eğitim, anadilde eğitim anlamı taşımıyor" ["The Kurdish education in the Democratisation Package does not mean mother-language education"], Radikal, 1 October 2013. The constitution says the language of the country is Turkish, and its Article 42 on education bans the teaching of any other language as a mother tongue to citizens in schools. An exception is made for non-Muslim Greek, Armenian or Jewish schools, a historical legacy from the Ottoman "millet" system that treated self-regulating religious communities as the building blocks of society. 79 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 80 Survey by MetroPOLL, "Poll: Public supportive of cemevis [Alevi houses of worship] warm to education in Kurdish", Today's Zaman, 17 July 2013. 81 On 26 June, he said the government had no plans to start mother language education. He repeated this in August, adding he would do nothing that would lead to Turkey's division. "Erdoğan says PKK did not fulfil promises", Today's Zaman, op. cit. 82 Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 15 backlash to the government's previous steps broadening the use of Kurdish.83 And an expert said mother languages are not the top concern about Kurdish issues in the opposition CHP's stronghold of Izmir.84 CHP supports the right to use mother languages, including in broadcasting, art, and private classes; however, it stops short of openly backing education in mother languages.85 In their proposals for a new constitution, CHP and MHP keep the coun- try's language as Turkish, not leaving room for second languages. However, a CHP official voiced a personal view that full-time private Kurdish schools could be opened, and another conceded that the party could lift its opposition in the future.86 A CHP member of the parliament's constitutional reconciliation commission hassaidforcing children to start education in a language they do not understand sets them back years.87 Nevertheless, strong intra-party divisions are evident on this issue.88 The MHP is resolutely opposed to education in mother languages, saying that people can learn them at home. A senior official reasoned that such a move would reduce mobility in jobs, could give rise to a debate on sovereignty and that answering Kurds' demands on this issue would only hasten what he saw as an eventual demand for independence.89 An MHP supporter said: It is enough that anyone who wants to learn Kurdish can do so today …. If we give education in Kurdish, the generation ten years later won't speak Turkish. They will say "we are different". It would be sowing the seeds of division!90 The Pro-Kurdish BDP has said a continued ban on education in mother languages is a deal-breaker for it, as is the categorisation of all citizens of Turkey as Turks.91 It wants full rights to use mother languages in private and public life, and says the state must ensure access to quality education in mother languages. To allay Turkish con- 83 Between 2002 and 2012, AKP legalised private Kurdish language classes and opened a state TV channel broadcasting in Kurdish and Kurdish language institutes in universities; most recently it introduced electives in mother languages at state schools. 84 Crisis Group interview, Fuat Keyman, member of Wise Persons Aegean region delegation, Istan- bul, June 2013. 85 CHP 2011 party program, in Turkish, www.chp.org.tr. 86 "Given the sensitivities today, we don't find education in mother languages appropriate. But we look at the EU, to France, Belgium, and so on …. Things can change". Crisis Group interview, Bursa, June 2013, and telephone interview, September 2013. Moreover, when CHP suggestednewlanguage in the clause on education that "the state takes precautions to ensure that everyone can benefit from the right to education in an effective, equitable and undisrupted manner", it signalled possible fu- ture revisions concerning education in mother languages. 87 CHP deputy Rıza Türmen, quoted in "Kürt çocuğundan 5 yıl çalıyoruz" ["We are stealing five years from Kurdish children"], Taraf, 23 September 2013. 88 During a debate on mother languages, a nationalist CHP parliamentarian said the "Turkish and Kurdish nations are not equal, they are not on the same level .… There is no Kurdish issue in Tur- key. [AKP] has made this a Turkish problem". "CHP seçmeninin çoğu ulusalcı" ["Majority of CHP voters are nationalists"], Akşam, 28 January 2013. 89 "Will giving them education in mother languages end problems? Language is an area of sover- eignty, it is a flag. [They have] a desire to share sovereignty". Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. Around the time of its "Turkish"- themed Konya rally, a Twitter top trend on 20 August was "Our language is Turkish, our party is MHP", and on 23 August, "Our language is Turkish, our castle is MHP". 90 Crisis Group interview, pro-MHP businessman, Bursa, June 2013. 91 Düzel, "Selahattin Demirtaș", op. cit.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 16 cerns, a deputy suggested a model that included obligatory Turkish lessons.92 BDP's proposals for a new constitution, like the AKP's, describe Turkish as the "official" language, leaving the door open for other secondary languages on a regional basis. It would take time to switch to nationwide education in mother languages, and there are capacity concerns. According to an AKP deputy, the education ministry is unable to bring the two main Kurdish dialects, Kurmanjî and Zazaki, into the curric- ulum at this point. A former Turkish teacher said there are more pressing problems than mother languages at poorer public schools, such as 60-child classrooms, dirty bathrooms and overall "chaos".93 AKP could, nonetheless, announce a roadmap. Ankara's recent initiative to intro- duce education in Kurdish through private schools that have sufficient demand could provide a transition period. Ultimately, the goal should be to have state schools fol- low their lead. The government should be more forthright about international best practices and research showing that education in a mother language is an essential building block for academic achievement and better command of other languages (in thiscase, Turkish).94 Abilingualeducation model,keepingTurkishalongsideKurdish, should also ease Turks' concerns about Kurds not speaking Turkish in the future. The government and the nationalist opposition ought tokeepinmindthatprevious steps, including Kurdish private lessons and optional Kurdish classes in public schools, broke taboos but encountered little demand in the Kurdish-majority areas. Full education in Kurdish might face the same fate, given the economic and cultural dominance of Turkish. Government steps and social change have already broken through many mental blocks to language reform. Even a supporter of the far-right BBP espoused a new tolerance: What are you trying to achieve by banning a language that is already spoken? It is a crime against humanity to deny the existence of a language that is a person's mother tongue. We shouldn't even be discussing this today.95 DecentralisationB. Kurds and Turks alike see the need for local government reform. Protests against urban development projects in Istanbul96 illustrate the pent-up demand nationally for participation in local policy-making, but decentralisation is a sensitive issue for Turkish nationalists, who see a federal system as the road to Kurdish secession. According to a Turkish bureaucrat, "every nation wants its own state, and Kurds are no different".97 A columnist in a pro-CHP newspaper voiced a common concern: The real, important goal [of the process] is to free Öcalan. Then, of course, it will be accepted that Kurds and Turks are two main elements of the state .… What 92 Sırrı Süreyya Önder, quoted in "BDP offers Bulgarian model for education in Kurdish", Hürriyet Daily News, 6 September 2013. 93 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 94 For more, see Vahap Coskun, Şerif Derince and Nesrin Uçarlar, "Scar of Tongue", Diyarbakır Institute of Social and Political Studies (DISA) March 2011. 95 Crisis Group interview, Turkish bureaucrat, Istanbul, August 2013. 96 See Section II.C above. 97 Crisis Group interview, Istanbul, August 2013.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 17 [Prime Minister Erdoğan] constantly repeats in rallies as "one nation, one flag, one state" will soon become "two nations, two flags, two states".98 Still, with many political and cultural changes dependent on a new constitution, de- centralisation is an easier issue on which concrete steps can and should be taken.99 Though some argue there may be problems with implementation,100 a small step was already taken with the AKP's new municipalities law, passed with little nationwide debate in November 2012.101 FromtheKurdishmovement'sperspective, itwasaposi- tive move. An AKP official explained: The [Turkish state] establishment was up in arms saying the law was separatist. … [Prime Minister Erdoğan] did not want to openly tell the public that the law was also answering Kurdish demands, but he shouldered the criticisms about it. He did not back down.102 The opposition is critical of the law, though there are disagreements about whether it amounts to decentralisation.103 When Prime Minister Erdoğan mentioned the pos- sibility of electing governors in the future – and in one TV interview even broke a republican taboo by positively mentioning the old Ottoman ethno-geographical terms"Lazistan"and"Kurdistan"–nationalists saidhe was preparing thegroundfora presidential system and a federation.104 Once again,apartfromscepticismaboutthewaythemunicipalitieslawwaspassed, there was little public reaction. Political opposition to the idea is not major. The left- leaningCHPsupportsincreasedpowersforlocalgovernments,financialstrengthening within a unitary structure, mainly by increasing local fundraising capabilities.105 It also wants to lift Turkey's reservations on the Council of Europe's European Charter on Local Self-Government.106 The right-wing MHP also supports strengthening local 98 Cüneyt Arcayürek, "Devekușu Örneği" ["Like an ostrich"], Cumhuriyet, 28 June 2013. 99 "It can unlock 70 per cent of the negotiations on the Kurdish issue. AKP is open to this". Crisis Group interview, AKP official, Ankara, July 2013. 100 For instance, the head of an Ankara think-tank said that low per capita GDP and regional ine- qualities necessitate a transition period before Turkey can switch to a truly decentralised system. Crisis Group interview, Taha Özhan, head, Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), Ankara, July 2013. 101 Among other things, it adds thirteen new metropolitan municipalities to the existing sixteen, including three predominantly Kurdish ones in Van, Mardin and Urfa; ties smaller municipalities into the central district; increases revenues through higher tax shares; merges the provincial gen- eral assembly with that of the province's main city; disbands special rural administration units un- der the centrally-appointed governors and gives their budgets to mayors; and increases the number of metropolitan council members. 102 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 103 "This is a federalism law. We don't have regional governments in our constitution". CHP deputy Birgül Ayman Güler, quoted in "Büyükșehir yasası federasyon mu getiriyor?" ["Is the metropolitan law bringing a federation?"], Sabah, 25 October 2012. 104 Erdoğan on Kanal D and CNN Türk's joint broadcast, 29 March 2013. See Ümit Özdağ, "PKK ile Müzakere, Mütareke ve Kirli Barış Sürecinin Analizi" ["An analysis of negotiations, armistice and the dirty peace process with the PKK"], Yüzyıl Türkiye Enstitüsü [21st Century Turkey Institute], 7 May 2013. 105 "CHP kurultayından demokrasi ve özgürlük bildirgesi" ["Statement on democracy and freedom from CHP general assembly"], 20 July 2012; and CHP 2011 election manifesto, in Turkish, www. chp.org.tr. 106 Crisis Group interview, CHP deputy and member of constitutional reconciliation commission, Ankara, July 2013. Turkey signed the charter in 1991, but with reservations on nine articles that
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 18 government's financial resources, but says that a sufficient administrative frame- work is already in place and there is no need for centrally provided services like polic- ing and health to be done locally.107 The Kurdish movement'sBDPproposesthemostboldlydecentralisedsystem,fore- seeing local assemblies that take over education, health, culture and tourism from the central administration and replacing appointed governors with elected regional presidents.108 It is nonetheless careful in its constitutional proposals to underline the territorial integrity of Turkey. The government should lead a countrywide debate about localgovernment,includ- ing international models, to inform public opinion and set out plans for strengthening elected local bodies to oversee aspects of education, policing and budgets. For its part, the Kurdish movement should clarify specific, consistent proposals and act with- in Turkey's existing laws and structures to enact changes. Removing Ethnic DiscriminationC. The word "Turk" represents more than an ethno-linguistic identity in Turkey. It is primarily used to define citizenship of the country and is a cornerstone of the current (1982) constitution: "anyone who has citizenship ties to the Republic of Turkey is a Turk"(Article 66).109 This interwoven Turkish identity is fundamentalformanyTurks, not just overtly nationalist ones. News in early 2013 about the removal of "Republic of Turkey" signs from some government buildings provoked outrage.110 There is a broad desire to keep a reference to the Turkish nation in the new constitution, while putting emphasis on equal citizenship.111 This overlaps with most Kurds' desire to live as equal citizens in a democratising Turkey.112 Lack of knowledge about Kurdish history is a barrier for some Turks, who still be- lieve Kurds do not constitute a distinct nation, or even a different ethnicity, and have no literature, science or culture of their own, but merely a mixture of Turkish, Ara- would strengthen local authorities by involving them in the central decision-making process; allow them to determine their own internal structures; give them more freedom over financial resources; permit them to associate with other local governments, domestic and foreign; and give them the right to judicial recourse if barred from exercising their powers. 107 Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. 108 Party co-chair Selahattin Demirtaș said autonomy or federation were not part of the current negotiations. Düzel,"Selahattin Demirtaș", op. cit. 109 The concept of "Turkishness" to describe a citizenship tie to the Republic of Turkey was intro- duced in the first (1924) constitution and has remained in the subsequent ones. 110 The government said some signs were removed for maintenance and later replaced, but many Turks, mainly from the ulusalcı segment, have put the letters "TC" in front of their names on social media in protest (short for Türkiye Cumhuriyeti, Republic of Turkey). The left-wing youth group Genç Türk (Young Turk) conducted a signature campaign in May-June 2013, directed against the Kurdish initiative, carrying signs that read "TC forever". "Removal of TC from government build- ings is baby-killer Öcalan's request, and over 300 signs have been removed so far, especially in the south east. We are against negotiating with [him and the PKK]". Crisis Group interview, Genç Türk member, Istanbul, May 2013. 111 Wise Persons delegation reports, made available to Crisis Group, 2013. 112 Crisis Group Report, Turkey's Kurdish Impasse, op. cit.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 19 bic, Hebrew and Persian cultures and languages.113 A BDP deputy complained that her MHP colleagues in parliament even questioned whether Kurdish was a separate language.114 In proposals for a new constitution partially leaked to the media, AKP suggests using "Turkish nation" (Türk milleti) in the introductory phrases and "citizen of the Republic of Turkey" to define citizenship. CHP and MHP want to preserve a refer- ence to Atatürk's nationalism, while BDP and AKP want to remove it. CHP and MHP both emphasise strengthening individual rights.115 Like AKP, they would retain a ref- erence to the Turkish nation in the introductory phrases (Türk ulusu for CHP, Türk milleti for MHP). To describe citizenship, CHP would keep the current wording but emphasise equality of all citizens,116 while the MHP does not see a need to change the existing definition.117 An MHP official said his biggest concern is preventing Turkey becoming a country where "people choose their neighbours based on ethnicity". Pointing out that Turkishness is a sociological, not a racial tie, he added: Why do we even call [the country] "Turkey" then? We call the cuisine "Turkish cuisine", and the culture "Turkish culture" …. Won't [removing Turkishness] from the constitution cause discomfort among Turks? What we need to do in- stead is to enhance the inclusiveness of Turkishness, [not] split it up.118 Some Kurds living in western Turkey say ethnic discrimination is already en- trenched, that Turks are in denial, and there is a need for positive action to counter the tendency. A recent study showed that Kurds from Diyarbakır living in Muğla province have a hard time renting houses or getting jobs once they reveal their iden- tity.119 Interviews among middle-class, non-Kurdish residents of western Izmir prov- 113 For instance, citing secret military documents, Saygı Öztürk recites arguments about Kurmanji Kurds and Zazas being respectively a Turkmen clan and a line of Hittite Turks on the Iranian bor- der. Örgüt Pazarı [Marketplace of Illegal Organisations] (Istanbul, 2013), p. 193. 114 "They were saying things like 'three thousand words came from Persian' …. We take this as an insult". BDP MP Meral Danış Bektaş quoted in "CHP ile MHP kart kurt ediyor" ["CHP and MHP are talking nonsense"], Taraf, 23 August 2013. This is mainly a result of the rise of Turkish nationalism after the 1930s, when foundations like the Society for the Study of Turkish History and the Society for the Study of Turkish Language were established to prove that all Muslim ethnic groups in Tur- key were descendants of Turks. See Cenk Saraçoğlu, The Kurds of Modern Turkey (New York, 2011), p. 53. 115 CHP recognises ethnic identity at an individual level, stressing "integration not assimilation", while saying the state should have no ethnic bias. CHP's willingness to allow fuller expression of ethnicity is constrained by its view of terrorism as a major national threat. It calls the PKK a terror- ist organisation in its party program and says "it is Turkey's right and duty to expel the PKK from northern Iraq". CHP 2011 party program, op. cit. 116 "There were discussions within CHP; some said we can say 'citizens of Republic of Turkey', but in the end we decided to use 'Turk' to describe citizenship …. Kurds are right about [several] things. We should emphasise that the definition of citizenship is not based on race, ethnicity, language or religion. We should underline that it is a legal bond between the individual and the state based on equality". Crisis Group interview, CHP deputy and member of constitutional reconciliation com- mission, Ankara, July 2013. 117 MHP argues that Article 10 of the constitution (everyone is equal in front of the law, regardless of language, race, ethnicity, sex or religious and political belief) neutralises any ethnic undertones elsewhere. Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Anka- ra, July 2013. 118 Ibid. 119 Leyla Neyzi and Haydar Darıcı, Özgürüm Ama Mecburiyet Var [I Am Free But There Is An Ob- ligation], (Istanbul, 2013), pp. 157-158.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 20 ince revealed stereotypes and labelling of Kurds as "ignorant and cultureless", "bene- fit scroungers", "disrupters of urban life", "invaders" and "separatists".120 Finding compromise will require countering the fear among many Turks that recognising others' ethnic identities means the extinction of their own.121 As AKP suggests, the definition of a Turkish nation or the Turkish people could remain in the preamble of a new constitution, while more should be done to make the definition of citizenship truly neutral. The Kurdish movement's BDP, however, wants to eliminate ethnic undertones by using "people of Turkey" in the introductory part of the consti- tution and "citizen of Turkey" under the citizenship definition. Changing Anti-terrorism LawsD. The framework for Turkey's anti-terrorism legislation includes Law 3713 (on fighting terrorism), prepared under the 1991 state of emergency, and the June 2006 Law 5532 that amended it. The latter introduced longer sentences and widened the defi- nition of terrorist crimes, includingmaking the media accountable for printing terror- ist propaganda.122 Many Kurds and some Turkish nationalists agree on at least the need for change, if for different reasons. The BDP calls for the anti-terrorism laws to be completely abolished, but this is difficult as long as outlawed, armed organisations exist in Tur- key. For the Kurds, the main frustration is use of the laws since April 2009 to arrest several thousand Kurdish politicians, officials and activists, mainly from the BDP, in operations against the PKK-linked Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) and its Turkish assembly offshoot (KCK/TM).123 The army and nationalists oppose the way the law has been used in anti-coup plot cases involving hundreds of officers as well as one MHP and two CHP deputies.124 The problem for reformers is to pin down precisely where resistance to changing the anti-terrorism law is. According to an AKP official, the government sees the dis- charge of KCK suspects as an important step to advance the peace process, but the judiciary resists: "Some courts allow releases, some don't …. The forensic depart- ment blocked the release of sick inmates [a key BDP demand]. The justice minister 120 Cenk Saraçoğlu, The Kurds of Modern Turkey, op. cit., pp. 21-24. 121 The Wise Persons Marmara region delegation head said Turks are not against Kurdish identity gaining respect, but fear that Turkish identity will lose respect. They see discussions about remov- ing "TC" signs, the flag or federalism as attacks on Turkish identity. Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, personal report, op. cit. 122 For details, see Volkan Aytar, "Daha Karanlık Bir Geleceğe Doğru mu?: Terörle Mücadele Kanu- nunda Yapılan Değişiklikler" ["Towards a Darker Future?: Changes to the Anti-Terror Law"], TESEV, 2006. In addition to the listed laws, Penal Code Articles 220 (forming criminal organisa- tions), 301 (degrading the Turkish nation, state or its institutions) and 318 (turning the people against the military) are used in an anti-terrorist context, and may need revision. 123 Some were later released or sentenced, but many remain in preventive detention, charged with membership of or aiding a terrorist organisation, but not with a violent act. According to an AKP official, the Kurdish movement is partly to blame for mixing legal and illegal entities: "The state had made the distinction between legal and illegal entities in the 1990s. Why did the PKK mix it up again? Why is a mayor a member of KCK for instance?" Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 124 On 5 August 2013, in a main case, called Ergenekon, and after a trial lasting more than five years, an Istanbul high criminal court sentenced nineteen people, including a former chief of the general staff, to life sentences on terrorism charges. The appeals process is expected to last a year. The other coup-plot case, Balyoz (sledgehammer), is also on appeal.
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 21 really wants to make [releases] work …. We are facing a giant judicial block. We have to fight the [legal] system over time".125 TheheadofanAnkarathink-tankcountedover1,000KCKreleasessinceApril2013 and suggested that a middle ground could be found on a case-by-case basis even if the law is not changed.126 To make real impact in addressing a common grievance for Kurds and Turks alike, however, the government should end the way the anti- terrorism laws currently punish even non-violent acts as terrorist crimes and allow pre-trial detention lasting up to ten years. AKP seems favourable to amending the law, but the 30 Septemberreform package (see above) did not include any changes to the anti-terror legislation, though initial media reports had indicated that the definition of membership in aterrorist organisa- tion – the most common charge in KCK trials –wouldbenarrowedtoallowreleases.127 Attempts to reform the system in the past year by judicial measures resulted in few KCK suspects being freed; a BDP official even complained they caused new cases to be opened.128 The political opposition is divided on anti-terrorism law reform. The right-wing MHP is against immediate changes, saying "ideology matters", and Kurds are not worse off than Turks when facing the legal system.129 The left-leaning CHP supports redefinition of terror crimes to exclude non-violent acts and shortening of pre-trial detention.130 A CHP parliamentarian blamed AKP's attempt to be all things to all people: It was the AKP that made it a terror crime in 2006 for children under eighteen to throw stones; it was the AKP that increased pre-trial detention time for terror crimes to ten years in 2005. Now it is passing "reform packages" …. The AKP blames the judiciary but [it can fix it] …. It was able to pass a law overnight for [intelligence head] Hakan Fidan [to prevent him from testifying in court].131 Further down the road, legislating an amnesty for the PKK or Öcalan would need careful and convincing arguments. It would be difficult to accept for many Turks, who would consider it an injustice to the families and memories of Turkish soldiers and civilians killed in the 30 years of conflict and remain unaware that two thirds of the casualties have been on the Kurdish side and that millions of Kurds were dis- placed.132 This leads to contradictory statements from the government. In early Au- 125 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 126 Crisis Group interview, Taha Özhan, SETA head, Ankara, July 2013. 127 "We have a legal logic that says 'how can there be non-violent PKK propaganda?' The law in Tur- key is as conservative as the politicians". Crisis Group interview, AKP deputy, Ankara, July 2013. 128 The fourth judicial reform package, approved on 11 April, changed the definition of terrorism to exclude printing statements of terrorist organisations and attending unauthorised demonstrations. "The anti-terrorism law and Turkish penalcodeneedtobechanged inlinewithuniversallegalnorms. But I don't think that will solve anything because the [KCK and Ergenekon] cases are political, not legal". Crisis Group interview, Haldun Solmaztürk, retired brigadier general, Ankara, July 2013. 129 Crisis Group interview, Oktay Vural, MHP parliamentary group deputy chairman, Ankara, July 2013. "Kurds are making too big a deal about this, it's a problem nationwide, and Ergenekon jailings are also not fair. It's not just about Kurds". Crisis Group interview, pro-MHP businessman, Bursa, June 2013. 130 "CHP kurultayından demokrasi ve özgürlük bildirisi", op. cit. 131 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 132 "Öcalan put a bullet through a three-month-old baby's heart. He is a baby-killer! He is a rapist! He is a vampire! …. He looks like a cannibal; he is not human …. Now, we have made him the crown
Crying "Wolf": Why Turkish Fears Need Not Block Kurdish Reform Crisis Group Europe Report N°227, 7 October 2013 Page 22 gust, Deputy Prime Minister Beșir Atalay said the government was evaluating mili- tants' return to Turkey.133 Then on 15 August, Prime Minister Erdoğan said he was not considering a general amnesty for the PKK.134 Nevertheless, the public may accept some form of amnesty eventually. Even in the Aegean region, where many dead sol- diers' families live, there seems to be a tacit consensus that these issues can be dis- cussed in five years or so, if peace holds.135 Making Political Representation FairerE. The biggest gap between political practice and the popular will is Turkey's 10 per cent national electoral threshold for a party to enter parliament. It was introduced with the 1982 constitution and reinforced by the 1983 Law 2839 on Election of Dep- uties.136 The rationale was to keep small parties out of parliament and maintain sta- bility after the chaotic 1970s, but its main effect now is to make it harder for the Kurdish movement's main legal political party, the BDP – which polls 6-7 per cent of the vote – to enter parliament. Kurdish candidates have instead to contest elections as independents, win a majority in their constituency and then join the pro-Kurdish party once in office. In theory, all agree the threshold is too high, but as an AKP dep- uty put it, "everyone complains about it until they are in power; then they forget about it. There needs to be stronger social pressure to change it".137 Prime Minister Erdoğan had previously ruled out lowering the threshold citing concerns about stability and implying it could result in coalition governments.138 But in a 30 September announcement on planned reforms, he said the government would discuss whether to keep the existing system or choose an alternative to be put for- ward by the AKP, including a 5 per cent threshold or none at all.139 Even an AKP offi- cial said concerns about instability are unfounded, as the only other party that could on our heads? … I won't forget [the death of my son] for a lifetime. Even if my son came back to life and said 'mother, forgive my killers', I won't!" Pakize Akbaba, president, Association of Martyrs' Mothers, interview with Ulusal Kanal, 2013, http://bit.ly/17wCZZD. 133 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, February 2013; Fadime Özkan, "Bașbakan yardımcısı Beșir Ata- lay: Süreç gayet yolunda, biz bu ișe asılıyoruz" ["Deputy PM Beșir Atalay: The process is going well, we are pressing ahead with it"], Star, 5 August 2013. An AKP official said the government needs to let militants enter political life. Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 134 "Erdoğan says PKK did not fulfil promises", Today's Zaman, op. cit. Channelling the sentiments of his support base, the main opposition CHP leader, Kılıçdaroğlu, said the environment in Turkey is not suitable for a general amnesty. "Kılıçdaroğlu: Hükümet çözüm süreci için önemli adım atsın, CHP destek verir" ["Kılıçdaroğlu: If the government takes important step for a solution, CHP will support it"], T24, 8 August 2013. 135 Crisis Group interview, Fuat Keyman, member of Wise Persons Aegean region delegation, Istan- bul, 11 June 2013. 136 Article 69 in the constitution says election laws are regulated to ensure "fair representation" and "stable governance". Article 33, paragraph 1 of Law 2839 specifies the 10 per cent. 137 Crisis Group interview, Ankara, July 2013. 138 "In systems where there are no election thresholds, you cannot find confidence and stability. Over the past decade, we have obtained stability and confidence in our country, which has been possible thanks to a government structure without coalitions .… We don't want to ruin the perfor- mance of our country". "Erdoğan says no plans to lower election threshold", Today's Zaman, 26 July 2013. 139 Erdoğan said these changes might be accompanied by new constituency arrangements that could end up helping the dominant party raise its share of parliamentary deputies.