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Westlake Waterfront Inn
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Stop EIGHT - Buchanan VA
Long travel day today, got in at 3:45pm. Was actually on Blue Ridge Parkway for little bit, then it got REALLY interesting. LOVE this campsite. We are actually sitting outside voluntarily at 4pm and enjoying it. Still humid but wonderfully cooler. Fireflies! Babbling brook sounds soooo ...
Rain, Fog, Rain, Fog, Rain - but still fabulous
... and doors with white columns at the front entry door in the classic colonial style - gorgeous sitting on broad green lawns. There are no fences to separate properties, so everything is in a very pretty setting.
Tom and Carl had no success finding us a brew pub for dinner after our long drive on the Parkway so we ended up at a Greek restaurant. Very good food! It was ...
Picking Up The Pieces
... less and will probably take less time to set up once I'm completely used to it. With my new suspension, my hammock itself is probably even faster, but I also have to put up the tarp with that, which adds time. There are pros and cons to both the tent and the hammock - I like having my own little space in my tent, which I didn't get in the hammock, but it's annoying having to basically crawl on the ground to get in and out of it, instead of just sitting in my hammock, etc. - but I ...
Getting ready to go
We have a long list of things to do before our big trek this summer. Motorhome has had all its service work done. Need to install a few things for the Alaska trip like a CB radio. Not much cell phone reception along the AlCan highway. Almost 3,000 miles to get to the launch point of Anacortes, WA. ...
Damascus to Daleville, Va (mile 728)
... A big highlight of the hike so far has been the wild ponies in the Grayson Highlands. I had just come off of Mt. Rogers (the highest point in Virginia) and was exhausted from the climb. I go to sit down in the shelter for lunch, and a wild pony just walks straight up to me and starts licking the salt off my arm! As I continued to hike through the Grayson Highlands they ...


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Then, at the appointed time (listed after the break), all you need to do is pop in Kinect Sports and "complete a sprint mini-game while connected to Xbox Live." Make sure not to choose the entire track and field event from the menu or it won't count.
All who download the gamer pic and participate in the record attempt will be rewarded with the Guinness World Records avatar tee (pictured). Beyond that point, you can totally make up the reason you earned it: "Yeah, I totally got that for putting four pool balls in my mouth. You should see how many you can do!"
[Thanks, David]
Guinness World Record attempt will take place at:
• 6pm UK Saturday April 23
• 7pm CET Saturday April 23
• 10am PDT Saturday April 23
• 1pm EDT Saturday April 23
- Key specs
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- Console compatibility Microsoft
- Released 2013-11-22
Microsoft Xbox One

subset: commoncrawl


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Serving financial institutions in corporate, transactional, defense and beyond.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture dropped April 1, 2009 as the date when the new country-of-origin-labeling (COOL) for food requirements will be enforced. The enforcement date will now depend on a review by the current administration. The COOL program rule covers muscle cuts and ground beef (including veal), lamb, chicken, goat and pork; wild and farm-raised fish and shellfish; perishable agricultural commodities (specifically fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables); macadamia nuts; pecans; ginseng and peanuts.
The new rule will require retailers to inform their customers of the country of origin of the products listed above and the method of production for fish and shellfish. Excluded from this rule are processed food items or food items that have undergone a physical or chemical change (cooking, smoking or curing). The rule also does not apply to restaurants, cafeterias, bars or other similar businesses.
There is $1,000 fine for each violation that may be applied to both noncompliant retailers and suppliers. For additional information, please visit: http://www.ams.usda.gov/COOL
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Town Square
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AROUND TOWNKnow a good hair color person?
Ladies: I have been to a number of hairdressers over the years, and no one seems to get it right. It always comes out dark...Original post made by Lee on Aug. 10, 2010
Last comment by Nicole, on Sep 18, 2010 at 1:34 pm | 8 comments | 1120 Views
AROUND TOWNHow do we get drivers with medical or mental issues off the roads?
I would appreciate any input on how to get people with mental issues like dementia or medication issues to stop driving!...Original post made by Lee on Sep. 14, 2010
Last comment by cindy, on Sep 16, 2010 at 9:44 am | 10 comments | 1221 Views
RESTAURANTSWhich Mexican food restaurant in town is the best?
After eating at all the local Mexican food restaurants, we have concluded that they are all very similar: bland food, so...Original post made by Lee on Feb. 21, 2011
Last comment by S2, on Mar 13, 2011 at 3:40 pm | 14 comments | 3309 Views
AROUND TOWNBuilt in obsolescence?
Our coffeemaker went out recently. I called Cuisinart to see if it could be fixed. They informed me that if it is out of...Original post made by Lee on Jun. 30, 2011
Last comment by Bob, on Jul 12, 2011 at 7:06 am | 10 comments | 1803 Views
AROUND TOWNWhy is there no longer Christ in Christmas ?
All around town, I no longer see a lot of Christ in Christmas.Where are the Holy Family exhibits on people's lawns? Instead...Original post made by Lee on Dec. 12, 2011
Last comment by Resident, on Dec 15, 2011 at 4:16 pm | 25 comments | 1396 Views
AROUND TOWNWhat happened to the WalMart Neighborhood Market?
Our house has been waiting for the WalMart Neighborhoold Market that was going into the empty Nob Hill location on Santa...Original post made by Lee on Sep. 12, 2012
Last comment by Dawn, on Sep 16, 2012 at 4:24 pm | 8 comments | 3882 Views
STATE, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONALlegal Issues For health System Leadership - Healthcare Reform: An Overview of Key Concepts
Healthcare Reform: An Overview of Key Concepts Beckers Hospital Review-Business and legal Issues For health System Leadership...Original post made by Legal Review on Aug. 6, 2009
Last comment by Law Student, on Aug 7, 2009 at 8:36 am | 1 comment | 1047 Views
STATE, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONALRepublican Advantage in 2010 Voting Enthusiasm Shrinks
From the Gallup Poll website: http://www.gallup.com/poll/127700/Republican-Advantage-2010-Voting-Enthusiasm-Shrinks.aspx PRINCETON,...Original post made by Leon on May. 6, 2010
Last comment by Cholo, on May 6, 2010 at 4:33 pm | 1 comment | 880 Views
SCHOOLS & KIDSCommunity Forum Information Inaccurate
I attended the community forum last night and was impressed by Mr. Johnson and the counseling staff at Amador. They look...Original post made by Leslie on Feb. 26, 2010
Last comment by Pete, on Feb 28, 2010 at 1:57 pm | 8 comments | 1252 Views
AROUND TOWNMatt Sullivan Voice of Pleasanton When you think like Matt
I was watching the City Council & Mayoral debate on TV last night, and found Matt Sullivan's comment/question to the candidates...Original post made by lessismore on Oct. 24, 2012
Last comment by June, on Oct 31, 2012 at 9:15 pm | 22 comments | 1804 Views
CRIMES & INCIDENTSMr. Lamont Cover-up
No new on the beating of Mr. Lamont. I have been told that the kids involved come from families with money and influence. So...Original post made by Lessismore on Oct. 22, 2013
There are no comments yet. 603 Views
SCHOOLS & KIDSTo Pleasanton Weekly: Why was Vranesh lawsuit story removed?
To Pleasanton Weekly: Why was Vranesh lawsuit story removed? Was it hurting people you support. Please answer or should...Original post made by Lessismore on Oct. 21, 2014
Last comment by Brothers Darryl, on Oct 22, 2014 at 12:50 pm | 5 comments | 1030 Views
AROUND TOWNWhat did you do to help make the world a better place today?
Somebody on the Pet Peeves thread thought a positive thread should be started, so here it is....Original post made by letsgo on Jan. 11, 2010
Last comment by Grace, on Jan 19, 2010 at 10:04 pm | 34 comments | 1410 Views
SPORTSTiger's Apology
I did not watch Tiger's apology. I do not care. I enjoy watching Tiger play golf, that's it. I don't think he owes the public...Original post made by letsgo on Feb. 19, 2010
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SCHOOLS & KIDSToo Much Homework?
There has been a lot of press over that last few years about kids getting too much homework. The new documentary (Race to...Original post made by letsgo on Apr. 27, 2010
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STATE, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONALBP Is Criticized Over Oil Spill, but U.S. Missed Chances to Act
Its going to be fun watching how the make this George Bush's fault....Original post made by letsgo on Apr. 30, 2010
There are no comments yet. 910 Views
AROUND TOWNLetter from the Mayor
Did everyone receive a lovely note from Mayor Hosterman today? I find it offensive, unethical and perhaps bordering on illegal...Original post made by letsgo on May. 5, 2010
Last comment by curious, on May 8, 2010 at 11:45 am | 27 comments | 1421 Views
SCHOOLS & KIDSSchool Board Elections
I find it odd that there are only 3 people running for school board when there were far more yelling and complaining about...Original post made by letsgo on Sep. 10, 2010
Last comment by Well, on Sep 12, 2010 at 7:43 pm | 9 comments | 1252 Views
STATE, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONALFlotilla Choir presents: We Con the World
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOGG_osOoVg&feature=player_embedded...Original post made by Letsy on Jun. 10, 2010
Last comment by Cholo, on Jun 10, 2010 at 1:09 pm | 4 comments | 862 Views
STATE, NATIONAL, INTERNATIONALDid BP play a role in the release of a notorious terrorist?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100713/bs_yblog_upshot/did-bp-play-a-role-in-the-release-of-a-notorious-terrorist#mwpphu-container...Original post made by Letsy on Jul. 13, 2010
Last comment by M., on Jul 13, 2010 at 8:06 pm | 1 comment | 993 Views
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Sanaria received two multiyear SBIR grants from the NIAID to enhance the development of its whole parasite malaria vaccine.
The phase II grant is to establish multiple strains of the parasite that can be used to assess the effectiveness of Sanaria's malaria vaccine. The phase I grant is to develop additional methods for preserving Sanaria's malaria vaccine. The total first-year award for both grants is $1.21 million. Subject to satisfactory progress by Sanaria, continued funding in the second and third year will bring the total to $3.47 million.
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By Ryan Clark | January 24, 2011 | Comments
Source: F4WOnline-- Former WWE talent Tammy Sytch (a/k/a Sunny) is denying online reports claiming she will be inducted into this year's WWE Hall of Fame class in Atlanta, Georgia. She will be in the area WrestleMania weekend, but for scheduled appearances for Ring of Honor. She wrote on her Facebook account: "FOR THE RECORD: I HAVE NOT BEEN CONTACTED BY ANYONE IN THE WWE ABOUT ANY UPCOMING APPEARANCES FOR WRESTLEMANIA WEEKEND.. I AM BOOKED TO APPEAR ON THE ROH SHOWS IN ATLANTA, AND THAT IS ALL. Please do ont fill my facebook wall with rumors....thanks."
-- Abdullah the Butcher and "Bullet" Bob Armstrong are under consideration for induction into the WWE Hall of Fame during WrestleMania XXVII weekend. Abdullah's unpredictable, ultra-violent style served as inspiration for numerous wrestlers and he still continues to compete on the independent circuit in a career that has now spanned seven decades. Armstrong is the patriarch of the Armstrong wrestling family; he has four sons (Scott, Brad, Steve and Brian), all of whom became wrestlers.
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"Very often the difference between the person selected and the person rejected is not who is the better candidate but who is better prepared for the interview."
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Firth rides back as Conrad replaces Austen
Ivan Waterman on the off-screen saga of love, greed and stormy weather that produced 'Nostromo', to be broadcast this autumn
Sunday 05 May 1996
The BBC is planning to spearhead its autumn TV drama season with Nostromo, Conrad's 1904 story of a South American country in the grip of revolution, and its silver mine run by a young Englishman. Lavishly filmed with a pounds 12m budget, it is the biggest European coproduction of a television film ever made (by Britain, Italy and Spain), but size and showiness will not be the major draw for half its audience.
Women viewers will be able to cast eyes on Mr Darcy once again. Just a year after he induced a nationwide swooning epidemic as Jane Austen's proud but eventually tamed hero of Pride and Prejudice, Colin Firth will be back as Charles Gould, owner of the Sao Tome silver mine in the imagined and turbulent country of Costaguana. Other stellar names cluster around him: Albert Finney tops the bill as the enigmatic Dr Monyghan, a lonely figure tortured under a previous regime, the Italian actor Claudio Amendola plays the hero Jean Baptista Fidanza, known as Nostromo, and Serena Scott Thomas plays Colin Firth's bride Emilia.
Nostromo is not the only Conrad tale - the word he would have used - to have been filmed and be awaiting release. At the cinema, audiences will soon see a new and lavish version of his 1907 novel The Secret Agent, with Bob Hoskins creeping around trying to blow up the Greenwich Observatory.
Yet earlier attempts to bring Conrad to the screen have been failures. They include a television version of The Secret Agent featuring the actor David Suchet, which failed to make any critical impression, and Nicolas Roeg's cable-TV interpretation last year of Heart of Darkness (successfully transferred to Vietnam by Francis Ford Coppola as Apocalypse Now) which received lukewarm reviews.
In 1965, Peter O'Toole and James Mason sank without trace in a film adaptation of his story of cowardice and making amends, Lord Jim, leaving a hugedent in the finances of Columbia Films.
Nostromo itself has been a long time coming as a film. David Lean tried to get it off the ground and failed; his friend Robert Bolt worked on a script but did not live to see it shot.
And the BBC's four-part mini-series, which will be premiered at the Prix Italia television festival in Naples next month, stumbled over a mass of problems on location in Colombia before making it into the can. It was pushed along by the corporation's Head of Drama Serials, Michael Wearing (the man in charge of Pride and Prejudice) as executive producer - and the Italian producer Fernando Ghia, who made The Mission with David Puttnam.
Production, in the suburbs of the city of Cartagena, ran into trouble almost immediately. Local people demanded work on an "or else" basis. Albert Finney's horse bolted into the jungle with him astride it. The removal of a telegraph pole for filming led to a cull of trees in the local botanical garden by an over-enthusiastic sub-contractor. ("I never really got to the bottom of that one," says a grinning Wearing). A boat lent by the Colombian navy ran aground. For weeks, cans of film sat in a storeroom, failing to make it back to the laboratories in Rome, because of a dispute over cargo rights between the Colombian and Venezuelan airlines. Temperatures hovered around 100F and the humidity became unbearable. Bugs assailed Ms Scott Thomas causing her to suffer from nausea and presenting huge make-up problems. Rainstorms washed away part of the sets. Equipment went missing.
Then, just two weeks before filming was scheduled to finish, the director Alastair Reid, who made Traffik, collapsed through exhaustion, and was "rested" for five days.
Wearing took over. The piece de resistance for the 60-strong crew and local craftsmen - some 400 were employed - was the construction of a 100- metre jetty and custom houses overlooking the ocean, complete with a working wooden steam engine, wagons and track. Taking four months and pounds 100,000 worth of wood to erect, the masterpiece was to remain intact as a monument to the film and a tourist attraction. The landmark was also to be shown to Fidel Castro, star guest at a Third World conference to be held in the city. Within 14 hours of filming ending, however, the set had been dismantled by local people.
"It just disappeared," said Wearing. "They wanted the wood. They hated the town council. These were people who had no running water or electricity. But it was a shame. Somebody could have done something with that businesswise."
Fernando Ghia referred to the difficulties as "tropical variations". He employed 15, 000 locals in crowd scenes during the shoot and had to deal with constant mutiny among the Italian crew; he is convinced that they have achieved the impossible.
"The Americans would have spent $75m (pounds 50m) on making Nostromo and then would have only been able to make a small segment of it, probably shooting in Spain for security reasons," he said.
"With television we can do it justice. This has been my dream. My passion. Sir Robert Bolt gave me the idea a long time ago and now we have it. There were many rows, but there were also light moments."
Indeed. The cast were frequently to be found at the local noisy nightspot Mr Barbilla's, where Colin Firth, fresh from his success in Pride and Prejudice, and his widely reported affair with his co-star as Eliza Bennett, Jennifer Ehle, fell in love once again with Mr Ghia's personal assistant, Livia Giuggioli, a student from Rome.
Last month at the Bafta awards, Ms Giuggioli was to be seen on Mr Firth's arm, and on Ms Giuggioli's finger was a large ring. The womanhood of Britain may swoon again this autumn, watching Conrad's tale, and may dream; alas, it may all be in vain.
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47 MINS AGO - Zero Hedge
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No excuse needed... This seemed to sum the talking heads up today... Everyone who loves the ECI index is now searching for another index to like — GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23) July 31, 2015 Everything was awsome today after the worst wage growth in US history sent stocks soaring.. and then they unleashed The Bullard: 1408ET *FED'S BULLARD SAYS "IN GOOD ...
1 HOUR AGO - TheStreet
NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- Investors who didn't abandon ship on Royal Caribbean after it issued a disappointing outlook back in April are probably patting themselves on the back. Shares of the cruise line operator surged 8% on Friday following second-quarter earnings and 2015 guidance that were significantly better than expected. Since hitting a recent bottom in early May, shares ...
2 HOURS AGO - Zero Hedge
Gold Bullion Demand Surges - Perth Mint and U.S. Mint Cannot Meet Demand - Perth Mint sees surge in demand and cannot keep up with demand- "Our biggest restriction is the amount of unrefined gold we're getting in from producers"- Very high demand for Perth Mint coins, bars coming from Asia, U.S. and Europe- U.S. Mint sees highest sales of ...
2 HOURS AGO - TheStreet
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Halliburton Co. shares are sliding by 0.57% to $42.05 on Friday with falling oil prices as U.S. energy firms added 5 oil rigs this week, Reuters reports. Crude oil (WTI) is slumping by 2.7% to $47.21 per barrel and Brent crude is also decreasing by 1.89% to $52.30 per barrel, according to the CNBC.com index. This week's rig count ...
3 HOURS AGO - Seattle Times
WASHINGTON (AP) — The World Trade Organization says China broke global trade rules by failing to comply with an earlier WTO ruling and continuing to impose duties on specialty steel imports. The decision announced Friday was a victory for the United States and steelmakers AK Steel in West Chester, Ohio, and Allegheny Ludlum in Waynesboro, […]
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text: Magazine Table of Contents | Published in March 1995 Goodwill: What Is It Really Worth? By PS | March 1995 Companies are looking at what goodwill is really worth Companies are looking at what goodwill is really worth» Inside GoodwillThe reverse leveraged buyout phenomenon of the past several years has turned the recoverability of amounts recorded as goodwill on corporate balance sheets into a major accounting issue. It can be summarized in one question: What are goodwill assets really worth, and is their carrying value recoverable?The Accounting Principles Board's Opinion No. 17, issued in 1970, requires preparers to assess the value and future benefits of all intangibles, including goodwill, and to write down goodwill if it is too high. But it supplies no guidance to aid in determining when, and by how much, goodwill's economic value might have been diminished.Now, however, the Financial Accounting Standards Board is contemplating a new standard that addresses the issue of asset impairments. It focuses on long-lived assets, whether tangible or intangible, and includes goodwill in its scope. While the board has yet to give its final approval, in its current form the proposed standard will be effective for fiscal years beginning after June 15, 1995. Under its provisions, long-lived assets must be reviewed for impairment once events or changes in circumstances show that the carrying value of the assets may not be recoverable.If properly enforced by auditors and regulators, this statement should produce asset values that are more reflective of a company's underlying economics. In that regard, investors should welcome the new FASB impairment standard-even if it causes a rash of asset writedowns-because their primary concern is that balance sheets show asset amounts that are realizable. Given the puffiness of some balance sheets due to goodwill, investors ought to be glad that this standard compels managements to perform some kind of quantified analysis of their goodwill's worth.top Inside goodwillGoodwill represents the excess earnings capacity of an acquired entity's net assets. Excess earnings capacity means the ability of an enterprise to generate superior earnings compared to its competition. It can result from business attributes such as a stellar management team, a natural monopoly on low cost production inputs, or an extremely satisfied customer base, among others.When a rational acquirer buys an entire company possessing superior earnings ability to its peers, the total price reflects that ability. It will not be captured simply in the fair value of the tangible assets, which represents only what those items are worth separately-not how much they are worth when combined with all other business attributes to create a "superior earnings vehicle." Therefore, some part of what an acquirer pays for a superior company should logically include a premium for this excess earnings capacity. In economic terms, this is called goodwill.So much for the theoretical world of economics, where ephemeral goodwill represents something worth purchasing with hard dollars. In the real world, what winds up in goodwill accounts may-or may not-represent a payment for excess earnings capacity.Often, it represents a payment for excess ego capacity during a bidding contest. The current spate of "blowout bids," designed to shut out bidding competitors for a company, can create more goodwill than may be justified under the traditional economic view. For many leveraged buyouts, goodwill may have been created under similar circumstances. Warren Buffett once pointed out waggishly that given the lack of managerial discipline that creates goodwill accounts, perhaps a better label might be "no-will."Some companies have already begun looking hard at the recoverability of their goodwill balances. In early 1993, for example, Supermarkets General contemplated a return to the public markets-the company had been absent since its 1987 LBO. In its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the company revealed a writeoff of $600 million in LBO-related goodwill. Numerous other companies have made large goodwill writeoffs using a variety of methodologies.In each case, the purpose was to determine whether or not goodwill had been impaired. Some used projected undiscounted cash flows; others, projected net income; and some used future operating earnings. But until FASB took up the issue, there was no standard methodology for determining goodwill impairment spelled out in the accounting literature.Under the proposed FASB standard, projections of continuing losses from a particular asset would indicate an impairment; so would a change in the legal or business environment that affects an asset's utilization. If a possible impairment exists, a company would first be required to estimate the future cash flows of the asset-including those from its ultimate disposition. If the sum of those cash flows is less than the carrying value of the asset, then the asset would be considered impaired.An impaired asset would have to be written down to its fair value. If an active market exists-unlikely in the case of most long-lived assets-this would be represented by market value. If fair value cannot be determined in this way, it would be presumed to be represented by the cash flow projections discounted at a rate commensurate with the risk involved. The difference between the discounted cash flows and the carrying value is the amount of the impairment loss to recognize in the company's operations.How does goodwill figure into this? If goodwill was present in the purchase price, it is part of the asset base being tested. If the cash flow to be generated from the assets will not recover their total costs-including goodwill-then the goodwill carrying value is unjustifed. The impairment charge is applied first to goodwill. The assets alone could not be impaired-so the goodwill gets written down. If the impairment charge is greater than the goodwill, then the remaining asset base will be written down.So the standard is most likely to cause writedowns to multiply among acquisition-happy companies and reverse LBOs. That is because if goodwill gets written down, as a result of this standard and assets reflect "what really is," these companies are the most likely to be affected.Investors should note that goodwill writeoffs are a good news, bad news kind of affair. The good news: earnings will be unimpeded in the future by fixed, non-cash charges related to assets that will not ever be realized in full. Stated earnings will be closer to the entity's underlying cash flows. Balance sheets' asset values will reflect expected cash flows, and return on equity may actually mean something going forward.The bad news: a goodwill writedown is an implicit admission that an adverse price was paid for a past acquisition-an acknowledgspment that an acquirer did not really know what it was getting into at the time. If return on equity means anything in the future, remember that it is only because a management has first confessed how much of shareholders' capital has already been squandered.That probably explains managements' past reluctance to write down goodwill when it first appears impaired-if they are the same ones who engineered the associated acquisition, they will not want to call their own judgment into question. When management takes a goodwill writedown on its previous acquisition foray, then prepares to make a new purchase, investors might do well to listen skeptically to their implied message: "This time we know what we're doing."- Jack T Ciesielski Tagged: Retirement Industry, related articles related research most e-mailed More in news topic from the magazine Second OpinionsLook-Back Rule Updates From plansponsor.com SEC Faces Its Own Debate on Fiduciary Advice StandardsEmployees Rely on Benefits for Financial PreparednessCost Top Consideration During Open EnrollmentVoya Enhances Participant Website and Enrollment ExperienceJudge Finds Halt to Union Plan Contributions UnlawfulTDF Customization Adds Considerable Complexity More in news topic from the magazine Second OpinionsLook-Back Rule Updates From plansponsor.com 2015 NQDC/457(f) Buyer's Guide2015 Recordkeeping SurveyDefined Benefit Administration Survey2015 Participant Survey2014 DC Survey: Plan Benchmarking2014 Defined Contribution Survey More in news topic from the magazine Second OpinionsLook-Back Rule Updates From plansponsor.com Cash Balance Plan Product Seeks FlexibilityAlliant Finds 40 Percent of Employers Now Offer Financial Wellness ProgramsESG Portfolios Outperform Broad Market IndicesThe Need for a Better K-12 403b Plan DesignMaintaining Order


text: OFFICIAL HANK "Gonna Get Better" (Mark Picchiotti Vocal) by Mark Picchiotti published on 2013/04/22 23:07:14 +0000 A new fledgling artist I recently remixed. Very happy and uplifting song. The artist name IS "Official Hank". If you like please leave a comment, and/or follow me for much more fun content coming up soon. Comment by DJ Andre Steffens Wonderful song! I will try and play it this evening in my set. 2013/08/24 12:49:50 +0000 Comment by Mark Picchiotti @tomremix: Hi Tom, Glad you like it. Here's the iTunes link https://itunes.apple.com/us/album/gonna-get-better-remixes-ep/id643892391 2013/05/12 21:17:47 +0000 Comment by TomRemix Can I buy this somewhere? Would love to play it in my club! 2013/05/12 18:23:27 +0000 Comment by Womble Almighty :-) 2013/04/23 09:00:09 +0000


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Published: 6 Jan 2014
WORLD: The Riverside Company, a global private equity firm that focuses on acquiring strong and growing businesses, has invested in DPA Microphones. Riverside's investment in DPA will reportedly allow the manufacturer to significantly expand its operation and grow the company at a much faster pace.
Published: 6 Jan 2014
AUSTRALIA: Professional Audio Technology (PAT) has recently announced the supply of the largest DirectOut Technology system ever purchased in Australia by Global Television. The new system was delivered to Global TV's facility in Mascot and is currently being prepared for a large international event that will take place in 2014.
Published: 4 Jan 2014
CHINA: Sennheiser provided the complete audio system set up for the recent Wine & Dine Hong Kong at the New Central Harbourfront.
Published: 3 Jan 2014
CHINA: Crestron Asia Limited recently received a '2013 top 10 architectural lighting outstanding brands' award at the award ceremony dedicated towards 'outstanding brands that make a great impact on the intelligent building electrical industry in China'.
Published: 2 Jan 2014
WORLD: The AVnu Alliance has welcomed Crestron as its 65th member, making it the first home control and automation company to join the alliance.
Published: 2 Jan 2014
SINGAPORE: Pan Beam has appointed Team 108 Technical Services Pte Ltd as its distributor for Singapore.
Published: 19 Dec 2013
WORLD: The PA Group, owner of Penton and Ateis, has recently announced that Xavtel has become the latest company to join the group, which will henceforth be known as the PAX ProAV Group.
Published: 19 Dec 2013
SINGAPORE: The Sam Willows have become the latest band to join the Shure Artist family.
Published: 19 Dec 2013
AUSTRALIA: The revised LPA industry safety guidelines are to be announced at the forthcoming Entech Connect conference in Melbourne, which will be held in July 2014 at the Royal Exhibition Building, Carlton Melbourne.
Published: 19 Dec 2013
AUSTRALIA: Audio Brands Australia has been appointed as the distributor for Eurocom, the installed/commercial brand owned by Music Group. As part of the deal, Audio Brands Australia is able to offer the X32 family of digital mixers to its installation dealers.


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Tag Archives: mortgage
Civil Rights News: State Laws Blocking Voters; AG Holder on Voting Rights; African Americans Facing Longterm Financial Setbacks
Compiled by Willie Roberson, a Summer 2012 Leadership Conference Education Fund Intern States' Voter ID Laws Could Disenfranchise Thousands in 2012 Associated Press Los Angeles Times In a review of states with the most stringent voter ID laws, The Associated … Continue reading
Posted in Civil and Human Rights News Tagged economic recovery, fair housing, fair lending, foreclosure, mortgage, voting rights Leave a comment
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Check out this great segment from Rachel Maddow, where she explains how obstruction in the Senate to keep anyone from running the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is incredibly dangerous. Continue reading
Posted in Media and Culture Tagged Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, economy, foreclosure, mortgage Leave a comment
On Mortgage Fraud
Highlighting Paul Krugman's piece about the foreclosure settlement. Continue reading
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Fed Report Finds No Wrongful Foreclosures By Banks, Consumer Advocates Slam Methodology The Huffington Post An investigation into abusive mortgage practices concludes that there were no wrongful foreclosures issued by banks. However, a discrepancy with the report's definition of "wrongful … Continue reading
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The Need for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Highlighting Elizabeth Warren's Miami Herald op-ed on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Continue reading


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Inertia Creeps Model
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Working on another batch of vintage Chinese horoscope rosaries, coming to the shop soon! (This photo is from Instagram, which is why the photo quality isn't quite up to my usual standards, but you can at least get an idea of what will be available.) I have Dragon, Ox, and Pig (which would double as a great stealth piece for Syr, Freyja's Sow persona), and am working on Dog and Rat next. noch 200 Wörter
Schlagwörter » Odin
The hunt for the Crested Tit (Loch Garten & Loch Mallachie) - 2nd August 2015
Let me explain the game with the Crested Tit; I have lived in Scotland now for 11 years, and in that time I have never seen a Crested Tit. noch 1.346 Wörter
Ragnarok, Volume 1 by Walter Simonson
Ragnarok volume 1, collecting comic single issues 1-6, is an interesting take on Thor and the world after Asgaard fell. I didn't know much about the title or author going into the read and so was pleasantly surprised to find an interesting, nuanced, and unique story with solid, rich artwork. noch 427 Wörter
Ritual Perfume and Cologne Oils
I've just added three brand new oils to the shop, which are as follows:
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The Viking Age Temple at Gamla Uppsala
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It's (nearly) That Time Again
The time for so many things!
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In March 2015, Parallels divided its company more explicitly into two distinct brands and business divisions — Parallels for the cross-platform solutions (focused on end-user support and application delivery) and Odin (focused on service providers, for hosting and cloud automation, Web management, and cloud infrastructure). noch 451 Wörter


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List all words ending with vexillar
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Top Posts
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More NBA player imitations: Tim Duncan is up
Jul 22, 2015, 10:01 PM EDT
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Space Jam 2 doesn't seem so far off now.
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As Austin Rivers insurance I like this move.
Top 10 plays from Las Vegas Summer League (VIDEO)
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Guys trying to get noticed leads to some spectacular plays.
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The San Antonio Spurs and their system have revived the careers or many shooters, is Jimmer next?
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Will people really buy single-game access?
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This would be a good, though likely inconsequential, change
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Will he make the team? He has an advantage over his competition
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Prayer (Part 2) - Today's Christian Videos
Embed crawley_church 1390 views 2010-10-02T01:04:10 This week Mark talks about the importance of prayer and some practicalities of how to make prayer a bigger part of your life so that you can build a closer relationship with God.
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If you have been "watching" you will have noticed a fairly sharp deceleration in global economic activity since the middle of 2014. World trade volume growth in particular has been heading into recession type territory:
Category Archives: Economics
A Foray into the Fundamentals of Austerity in Anticipation of the Outcome.
A recent IMF report pointed out some supposed vast amounts of room available for the world's economies to step up government borrowing to finance consumption, investment and production decisions. Oddly the report appeared to ignore other forms of debt and material deterioration in key areas of the economic frame.
When the crisis broke back in 2007 it was clear to me that monetary and fiscal policy would likely need to go for broke to support economic growth and employment at a time of collapsing asset values, debt defaults and a world wide retrenchment in expenditure of all kinds. As it happened a great deal of that support went into asset prices and financial institutions.
But some years after the crisis, after a slow and drawn out recovery with interest rates locked to the floor, economies still appear to be borderline reliant on debt financed government expenditure. Any attempt to reduce borrowing, to either raise taxes or cut expenditure to pay back debt would be considered by many to have an adversely negative impact on economic growth, especially at such low growth rates.
In the context of interest rate decisions you have to ask yourself just what are we waiting for?
I have seen that the IMF has asked the Fed to defer interest rate increases until we see clear signs of wage increases and inflationary pressure.
The request IMO is both scary and rationale given that so much of today's National Income Accounting Identity (output=C+I+X-M) relies on factors that lie outside of its operation. I speak of new bank generated loan growth given that income growth/distribution and investment growth still appear to be weak in the scheme of things..i.e. C+I the drivers.
The last time the FRB delayed interest rate increases we had a debt financed consumption boom in the US followed by IR increases and a de facto financial collapse. By raising rates we likely restrict one of the few modes of generating consumption growth in the US (note auto loans) and many other countries. We also likely raise the impact of existing debt burdens on what are to date still historically low rates of income/wage growth.
As such you have to ask yourself just what are we waiting for? Well we need higher income growth, but not just higher income growth: we need a more equitable and fair distribution so that economic growth itself becomes less reliant on debt and low interest rates, and less exposed to the scary divergence of asset values.
But the world is also changing in ways that question whether we can effectively outwait the inevitable: populations are aging and declining. Areas where the frame can still expand in consumption terms, areas such as China, may be heading into their own period of slow growth and low IR debt support.
Importantly will the status quo submit to a reconfiguration of the pie and can the world assume a less debt dependent economic raison d'etre?
So yes, the rationale to defer interest rate rises is both scary and realistic, but it fails to answer important questions: what are we waiting for, how long can we wait, and are our hopes realistic?
This is just a quick 3 minute post, but the issues are critical!
US Manufacturing Orders
After a strong mid 2014 new orders had fallen heavily with nominal order data especially hard hit. After an initial slide the trend seems to be levelling out, but levelling out is not what the economy needs.
Long term, the order profile is flat if we adjust for prices – note I have adjusted for producer prices not order prices, although over time I expect little difference.
Annual growth rates have taken a punch to the gut, but if we adjust for monthly variance and producer prices we find that the downturn is less marked, although not necessarily insignificant:
What I do find interesting, and which backs up my thoughts re last summer's surge in activity, is the fact that the rise in activity towards the middle of last year is more or less reflected in the downturn in the early part of this year. This pattern comes about after adjusting for PPI and basing % changes on rolling 6 month average data to arrive at a better fix of actual capacity and order flow:
Motor vehicles and parts seems to be the notable exception, but I do have concerns over debt financing and weak income growth.
World Trade
Some charts and brief comments I forgot to post:
Growth in world trade volumes has fallen off significantly since summer 2014:
Interestingly US trade data shows a tail off in US auto exports and a rise in Auto imports. Imports rose strongly in March and fell back in April (opposite for exports), although much of this has been ascribed to the impact of West Coast port strike issues.
Is Private Investment Expenditure in the US really looking strong?
Is investment expenditure in the US really looking strong? I picked up some tweets on this the other day which stated that it was indeed.
The above graph shows domestic investment of US private business net of capital depreciation. A couple of points should strike you immediately: one nominal expenditure peaked back in the late 1990s; two, a lot of the retracement (or the pluck as Friedman might have said) is a consequence of the unprecedented decline seen during the dark days of 2009.
Overtaxing the rich: A cautionary tale
We need to look at increasing inequality as an unfair tax on social and economic stability. And so, my brief thoughts on this Tim Cestnick article in the Globe & Mail;
At a very simple level the economy spends what it earns (Output=expenditure=C+I=C+S, where S is income spent but not consumed). In reality the picture is somewhat different in that we have monetary loan expansion that over time has served to increase the demand/expenditure for goods/services and investment expenditure.
Economic growth is the growth of expenditure whether it be consumption or investment goods. If we start to allocate increasing amounts of income towards a very small % of the population what we end up doing is to constrain the ability of the economy to grow.
For one lower income growth limits borrowing ability (something which had sustained GDP growth) and it may retroactively impact the ability to repay previous loans based on lower ex post income growth.
Greater allocation of income to one small segment of society also risks a higher allocation of money towards assets and away from consumption. Increasing income inequality results in lower recycling of income into demand, and as the growth rate of demand slows so does the growth rate of investment.
Importantly future flows determine the valuation of assets, so rising inequality amidst weaker GDP growth poses risks to assets prices. The significance of this circularity has been lost on the very wealthy in a time when monetary policy has been outwardly in favour of asset price support in a weakening growth environment.
If we had less income inequality then tax rates would also likely be lower and we may also have a smaller state and a more outwardly capitalist economy. The need for higher tax rates is partly due to structural imbalances like income inequality: think of two monkeys swinging through the trees, one with all its limbs and the other with only one arm.
Clearly we need incentives for people to take risks with capital, but we also need to make sure that the system has the necessary circularity of flow. The income of the very wealthy is dependent on the expenditure of all and the valuation of their assets too. This is something many have lost sight of: today's high market valuations relative to historical benchmarks (note the Shiller CAPE) are assumed by some to reflect a different set of dynamics supporting valuation whereas many of the growth engines of the past are collapsing.
At a time when there are so many negative forces impacting the stability of the economy a more efficient, though still incentivised, distribution of income would go a long way to alleviating economic and geo-politic stress. Otherwise we risk increasing social instability and greater threat to income and wealth.
The post World War II years are a very short space in time and certainly not long enough to assume that the having your cake and eat it too mentality is a natural economic dynamic. In reality increasing income inequality is a de facto tax on economic and social stability in that shifting income and wealth from one set of people to another creates dangerous imbalances and inefficiencies. The present need to raise taxes is an ex post not an ex ante action.
"Marketplace lenders step out of the shadows in Canada — should we be worried?"
Brief thoughts re a recent Barbara Schechter article: Marketplace lenders step out of the shadows in Canada — should we be worried?
I tweeted on this. Some additional comments. Peer to peer lending is different from bank lending in that it does not result in an increase in money supply growth. It may result in an increase in velocity of money supply, something which has been dropping of late in many economies as a result of quantitative easing and a number of other dynamics. It should also increase the efficiency of the intermediation system by offering lower interest rates and quicker access to credit to many borrowers. There are some cons: one of which is that it will increase the liquidity risks in the system in the event of an economic downturn/ financial market crisis. This of course depends on how many may view their loans as money like when they have been transformed and how this market place securitises the loan book. At the present moment in time it may also increase the amount of consumer debt over and above safe levels, although this would not necessarily be an issue in less leveraged environments.
US Employment Chart Combo
US total private sector employment growth: the rolling cumulative 5 year rate of change using high water mark analysis. The last two growth cycles have been way below your typical post war level.
And you wonder why economic growth is low?
A world in transition, but so many straws in the wind, some thoughts!
Everybody is asking and at times hoping to answer the question as to why world economic growth is slowing down, why is it so sub par, why has it not recovered post the turbulence of 2007 to 2009? There are many straws in the wind, but which ones are cause, which ones are consequence and which are accommodation linking both? In a world where diverging tiny margins can accumulate into significant distances it is hard to determine just what and which is the key.
Not a "Savings Glut" per se but a monetary excess amidst a period of complex global structural economic change!
If you stream through the data it is pretty clear that developed economy growth has been slowing for some time and that monetary policy has accommodated this adjustment with lower interest rates and a relaxed attitude towards money supply growth. At about the same time these trends were moving ever closer to their sweet spot on the horizon (because we are not yet at peak of this particular movement) certain developing markets really got going, with the help of a fair amount of their own monetary stimulus but also by a reconfiguration of global supply chains and offshoring in key economies. All factors combined to create a heady and dangerous global financial imbalance, a weak bridge cast across a widening economic divide. No wonder it all came crashing down..but who was to blame? The world's central bankers who were blindsided into excessively lax monetary policy by a low inflationary world that had become obsessed with laying off and chopping and dicing of risk to those "who could best absorb and bear it", or some of the finer strings in the mesh? Well, some have chosen to blame excess savings in the emerging/developing part of the world, principally China, but this is all too pat. The "savings glut" theory, if you can really call it "excess savings", was merely a return of serve of part of the vast ocean of financial and monetary excess that barrelled through the early to mid 2000s.
World Trade Micro Blog: has the growth stage of the cycle peaked?
World trade growth is slowing down. Note: 6 monthly growth rate of exports.
Shorter term data shows a sharper drop for Japan and a general deceleration elsewhere. Has the European export recovery peaked?
And on a fundamental note, it looks as if the higher growth period of the post crisis recovery has now ended:
Not a Savings Glut, a much more complex dynamic of global imbalance and monetary excess.
For me the "Savings Glut" Hypothesis falls down on a number of key areas:
The first and most important is that it appears to ignore significant loan/monetary growth which breaks the point in time National Income Identity on which "Savings Glut" arguments apparently rest. I say apparently because much of the discourse supporting the SG hypothesis is either couched in nuanced semantic surfing and/or bereft of argument that you can trace directly back to the source of the flows from which they derive savings. Many supporters of the SG hypothesis either ignore these monetary dynamics totally or disavow them without cause.
The second is that it ignores the foreign exchange and central bank monetary dynamics involved in much of the FX/asset purchases. Key components of the trade balance/net investment position were orchestrated by Central banks creating new money to buy dollars and thence assets.
The third is that it ignores the fact that the major mega surplus economy, China, was and remains to a very large extent driven by loan financed (new money) gross fixed capital investment. Again the basic National Income Identity model misses a myriad of inter temporal dynamics. The SG argument was that it was excess savings and not monetary and financial system excess that caused the crisis and to fully understand the imbalances you have to look at where National Income/output is derived.
The fourth is that it ignores the very important development of emerging Asia as a global production hub and the off shoring dynamics that saw significant components of US and other international manufacturers move tranches of their manufacturing base to these countries. This issue is well covered and documented.
Finally, as discussed in numerous papers, focussing only on the net investment flows ignores vast sources of excess demand for assets that were also instrumental in pushing financial markets out of synchonisation with their economic fundamentals.
I will look to explore and illustrate these arguments in coming posts.
US Manufacturing New Orders "Chartfest"
Oh how I wish new order data was price adjusted!
Some brief thoughts on US Incomes and expenditures
Inflationary dynamics have brought about a large relative increase in real incomes over the last six months or so.
Yes it looks as if much of the most recent improvement has not been "spent", but it is only 1 or 2 months into this gap which must itself be set against strained income increases over the last decade. Longer trends and frames remain important for the sustained growth rates over time and the current frame remains a weak one. Personal consumption expenditures as a % of disposable income remain at historically high levels and consumer credit growth may also be a notably factor weighing against leeway for growth in consumption (see end of post).
Re Andy Haldane: my brief comments on deflationary risks and interest rates
This is a quickly penned thought on Andy Haldane's recent comments on interest rates and deflation:
In a recent speech Andy Haldane of the Bank of England suggested that interest rates may well need to fall as opposed to rise following on from recent falls in inflation. I would agree that the secondary impacts of price declines need to be seen before we can assess whether or not these price falls could indeed trigger stronger deflationary forces.
For one, price declines may lead to lower revenues (note US retail sales) and lower revenues may impact on wage increases.
Secondly, lower revenues impact cash flows and cash flows impact asset prices, especially for high yield debt in sensitive sectors. Global markets remain especially sensitive to asset price movements and factors which may impact asset prices.
Thirdly, we are in a complex deflationary frame where aging populations, slowing population growth and relative weakness in corporate investment (note buybacks) is already a significant drag on the global economy. Falling prices could well trigger latent dynamics in this structure.
And finally, areas of the world which could well create the demand necessary to reinvigorate the frame, for example China where growth appears to be slowing sharply, may also be adding to tensions within the global growth frame.
So yes, interest rates could fall, in the sense of defending asset prices and attempting somehow (I do not quite know how) to reinvigorate or at least support demand, or rather maintain marginal cash flows.
But in reality we do not know because we lack at the moment a measure of the sensitivity of the frame to short term shocks of any financial or economic nature. We know the frame is weak and has been for some time but as to its sensitivity, we know very little.
Are we in a financial bubble? Yes of course, we always are, but this one is different!
Many will be forgiven for feeling and being confused by the constant divergent chatter over market bubbles.
Yes, we are in a bubble: I believe an extreme one in fact, but the natural state of the financial world relative to the economic is always one of a bubble; asset markets are always discounting the future, and the money supply that creates demand for assets and also goods and services has been growing for some time, as has the economy. If a market is priced at x times historical earnings it is discounting future earnings and by doing so providing a valuable medium, or at least should be, for financing new investment and for facilitating the transfer of assets. As the economy grows, so will assets and their prices and so will the bubble….and the bubble is the difference between now and future cash flows and the pricing of those cash flows.
The Fed is slowly shaking the tree, but will it start to climb?
Over the last 20 or more years interest rates have fallen, for reasons other than falling inflation, and as interest rates have fallen so has nominal growth in a great many developed economies, and so has inflation fallen further. On the other hand debt has risen and so have asset prices, quite remarkably so in fact. But through this period we have also had a succession of financial and economic crisis, with the risk mostly of a financial nature, and in response to these asset price risks, interest rates were either cut or held low for, in my opinion, far too long.
The Fed would now like to raise interest rates, and so too would other seemingly "well on the way to economic recovery nations". The trouble is the "economy and our markets" are now more than ever sensitive to changes in interest rates. The Fed partly knows this, is partly concerned that interest rates lie at close to zero (and unless they want to go negative, a place they probably worry they may never climb out of) would like to see them a bit higher, to allow them to cut interest rates in a subsequent crisis.
In the last cycle the the Fed Funds rate rose to 5.25 and currently loiters around the 0.11 to 0.12 range. I would suspect that a Federal Funds rate of 4% was too high for the last upward cycle and would also posit that rates would be hard pressed to rise above 2% in the current cycle before we saw the type of wrenching market reaction…but this all assumes everything else being equal. Markets are too well worn around the interest rate, money supply asset price equation to lay back and wait for the interest rate cycle to hit economic growth. The question is though how much of an asset price shock can the "economy take as interest rates rise before that asset price shocks impacts the economy? I guess that is the question and the Fed is trying to work out just how sensitive the world is to a rise in interest rates. It just does not know and while the risk of rising rates may be extremely high it may well have figured that "the Fed's got to do, what the Fed has got to do…".
As many other commentators have pointed out, a whole panoply of other risks have started to move out of the closet (namely the many risks posed by a sharply appreciating US dollar), risks that may already constrain the Fed from acting.
Current rates on 5 year treasuries are around 1.5% and stood at some 4% in early 2007. I would have thought that the peak rate for the Fed rate would be around this level at the current juncture, but just how to get through to it is the question?
Some important dynamics from US Q4 GDP Update
A weak frame:
Personal consumption expenditure is the most important component of US GDP and growth in real Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is tied to the productive capacity of the economy. So why on a real per capita basis has the economy failed to produce sustained increases in consumption capacity post the early 1980s? And note that this is despite an increase in PCE as a % of GDP over the post war period.
And also on a nominal basis:
How reliant in fact has GDP been on the PCE component? Growth in PCE has eclipsed both GDP and equipment investment over the post war period, and significantly so. The question begging to be asked is,"where is growth going to come from?"
In another recent blog I exposited about asset valuations relative to GDP growth. Now the charts above show the increasing reliance of US GDP on PCE, a component which appears to have outsized importance in GDP terms. Well the following shows even PCE growth being dwarfed by increases in household asset values:
In fact we can see that PCE expenditures have been less reliant on income growth post 2000s:
And looking at nominal GDP only, if we adjust for inventories and the impact of changes in consumer credit we find a much subdued trend in growth:
And nominal growth in expenditures have been declining:
And motor vehicles etc continue to be an important part of consumer expenditure…
And relative to the prior debt fuelled cycle we find that expenditure on MVPs and RV combined is a much greater…I have pointed out concerns with respect to the growth in non revolving consumer credit relative to income growth, a ratio which stands at historically high levels.
Services expenditure has been increasingly volatile:
And note the importance of health care expenditure:
Interestingly if we take out healthcare expenditure from PCE, PCE as a % of GDP has been more more stable..
And financial services expenditure has also picked up since Q1 2013:
Interestingly, all the domestic investment components (on a nominal basis) are turning down in a synchronised way:
Exports have been an important driver of growth recently, but more recently has fallen back as a nominal driver of expenditure: there are many explanations for this amongst them the recent decline in the oil price and weakening global demand growth.
And of course the chart raises the question, where is the growth going to come from?
Finally, a quick peek at growth in commercial bank deposits relative to nominal GDP growth:
Too Big Too Fail: a graphical analysis of the US asset bubble..
I have been tweeting about the relationship between asset valuations and GDP and a number of other metrics recently.
My point for some time has been that the relationship between asset valuation and GDP, amongst other reference points, is excessive and out of alignment with slower GDP and income growth. As with many of my other posts the point is this: the financial economy, asset and debt valuations and the complex financial system linking them, has become much bigger and therefore much more important to keep alive. I would go as far as saying that the financialization of the global economy has become too big too fail, an extension no less of the banking dilemma.
Calls for higher inflation targets
In a recent post,"There's nothing left-wing about a higher inflation target", Tony Yates called for an increase in the Bank of England's inflation target from 2% to 4%. Raising the inflation target for some reason would allow for higher interest rates that would provide the necessary leeway to combat economic downturns without being hemmed in by the zero lower bound.
While I do not necessarily agree with the statement I do agree with the dynamics that quite possibly underlie it. Yes, if the inflation target had been higher central banks may not have been as aggressive keeping inflation under control and possibly inflation may not have fallen to current levels. Interest rates may therefore not have trended down from the early 1990s to their pre crisis levels.
If interest rates had not moved downwards over this period then it is likely that we would have seen much less asset focussed debt creation and the foundations of the crisis that led to a precipitous immediate drop in growth and weaker growth post crisis would likely have been somewhat curtailed. The fact interest rates are hemmed in at the lower bound though has more to do with the dynamics of high levels of debt and their relationship with high asset values amidst the constraints of low economic/income growth. In other words it is the past that has the greater weight, not the future. So yes, clearly, without the debt accumulation and with higher interest rates we would possibly not be at this particular chokehold.
But, interest rates did not fall solely because inflation fell, they fell because growth rates were also falling and because of a number of financial shocks to growth starting in the late 1990s. In a sense interest rates fell to stimulate growth and anything that stimulates growth also risks stimulating inflation. That it did not is a very moot point.
In reality, all other things being equal, where inflation is caused by imbalances between supply and demand, the higher the inflation target you have the lower the interest rate target, and since I believe that lower interest rates have helped foster successive financial bubbles I am concerned over the integrity of higher inflation targets per se given the dynamics. I would have preferred higher interest rate targets and less monetary stimulus even if this had meant a lower growth trajectory. I can see little wrong with low inflation within a structurally stable economic framework.
But let us suppose the argument is one of expectations and by raising the Bank's own inflation targets so will the general public. I think if this was the case the article should have clearly expressed it. I do not personally feel that today's deflation is led by individuals delaying expenditure in the expectation of lower prices tomorrow, although this does not mean it could not start to happen. The question is, after all the best efforts of central banks the world over to stimulate growth over the last 20 years have led to the present moment in time of low interest rates and falling prices, how will putting an expectation of higher inflation into CB policy actually raise both inflation and interest rates?
Perhaps by raising inflation expectations we may cause consumers to spend more and save less. But this assumes that people are spending less than they are capable of (the wealthy "1%" perhaps, but do they need to spend more?) as well as the fact that deflation is impacting the saving/spending decisions of consumers.
Personally I would rather have seen a higher interest rate framework and reduced asset focussed money supply growth with lower potential inflation implications than the situation we are currently in. It has less to do with inflation and more to do with structural economic integrity. Trying to stimulate expenditure via every manner possible has led us into all sorts of problems.
The one bright spot in manufacturing new orders, motor vehicles and parts demand is a worry
Yep the employment numbers looked reasonable but we are going to have to see better wage growth going forward and much less reliance on consumer credit if we are to believe that the economy is no longer skating on thin ice:
Motor vehicles and parts new orders have kept on rising:
But non revolving debt is growing at its hottest pace since 2000/2001
And as a % of disposable income, much higher:
And relative to income growth, well, historically high levels again:
I just do not feel comfortable with these kinds of fundamentals underpinning growth expectations.
Another way of looking at US employment data
There is an increasing amount of data pointing to a general deceleration in economic growth since the summer, yet US employment numbers keep on movin' on. Instead of going through the repetition of data points I thought it would be useful to look at employment data from another angle.
Typically employment numbers are meant to be a coincident indicator of economic activity, but this is an average characteristic. There will be times when it will be a lagging (catch up) or a leading indicator (job losses).
Economic activity in the US surged post the winter weather interruptions and peaked around mid summer…I was wondering whether this peak in activity following a long period of relative weakness had influenced hiring somewhat and to what extent hiring has lagged this initial surge in activity:
The above shows the monthly unadjusted change in total private employment over 2012, 2013 and 2014. We can see that the differential really opened up from mid summer onwards.
So let us look at the differential between 2014 data and 2013/2012:
Well we can see that pre May 2014 numbers were below 2013 and 2012 and post June were above, especially 2014 on 2013. So let us look at unadjusted new order data and then compare it to employment data above:
New order data rose strongly to mid year relative to the prior two years then fell back relative to other years, so I wonder if employment data has fully reacted to this slowdown. It is an interesting point…
Some interesting Euro Zone GDP charts
The cumulative change in final consumption expenditure of General Governments exceeds the change in GDP since 2007:
Household and non profit organisation expenditure has languished, especially once you exclude German data:
And the fall in gross fixed capital expenditure is heady:
Exports have fared better:
And imports with the exception of Germany reflect the overall economic weakness:


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DFRobot RoMeo All-in-One Microcontroller
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|Jameco Part no. 2144403
|Manufacturer no.
|Catalog 132 , page 86
- Schematic [175 KB ]
- Data Sheet (current) [290 KB ]
DFRobot RoMeo All-in-One Microcontroller
RoMeo is an all-in-one microcontroller specially designed for robotics applications and is compatible with Arduino. Use directly with the Arduino open source platform for thousands of open source codes and be able to easily expand capabilities with most Arduino shields. The integrated 2 way DC motor driver and wireless socket gives a much easier way to start your robotic project. The RoMeo microcontroller is also included in the 4WD Mobile Platform Kit.
- ATmega 328 microcontroller
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- 14 Channels Digital I/O
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- USB interface
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- ICSP header for direct program download
- Serial Interface TTL Level
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Armenian diaspora in UAE is dead: head of Azerbaijani diaspora organization
07 August 2009 [11:59] -
Head of Azerbaijani diaspora organization in the United Aram Emirates Samir Iman spoke in an interview with Day.Az.
Day.Az: How many Azerbaijanis live in UAE at the moment?
Samir Iman:
Azerbaijani diaspora of the United Arab Emirates comprises about 1,000 people including all family members. Most of Azerbaijanis live in Dubai and Sharjah as major cities are located in these two emirates.
As you know, the law of this country does not allow foreigners to obtain citizenship regardless of how many years they lived here. That is why the number of our compatriots are not so great. Talking about their employment, it is safe to note that they are represented in all areas including business and medicine and in half-governmental agencies. For example, an Azerbaijani works as chief engineer at Sharjah emirate TV channel. Our doctors work in public hospitals. Chief editor of Russian magazine Aviamost which is published here is Azerbaijani, too. Our countrywoman works for local newspaper Khaleej Times.
Lot of our young people are enrolled in high schools in UAE. I note that at the American University of Dubai has opened up Department of Journalism two years ago. It would be nice if our students would come to this department, but not only business, management or design departments. Indeed, in the future this will enable them to skilfully write about the culture and history of Azerbaijan and the Karabakh issue.
Q: How local population treats Azerbaijanis in the UAE?
A: Azerbaijanis in UAE live well. The attitude of local authorities and population to us is positive. The country respect the laws very well, so people who come to the UAE for the first time faced some problems due to lack of knowledge of laws but with time everything falls into place
Q: It is known there is large Armenian diaspora in the UAE. Please tell us how many people it comprises and in what it is engaged?
A: Some 10,000 Armenians live in the Emirates. They are mostly from Lebanon, Syria and some from Palestine. In this regard, it is easy for them to get adapted to life here because of knowledge of the Arabic language. Almost all of them have an Arab education. Armenians from Armenia is not so much.
They are also represented in all spheres of life: business and civil service. Despite a relatively large number, hey can not do anything.
Friday is a day-off in the Muslim world. In Sharjah there is Armenian church where they go on that day. Here, children learn their native language, culture, discuss their problems, including the issue of Karabakh.
But they can not do anything openly or stage any propaganda. We can say that the Armenian diaspora in the UAE is dead and is hardly felt here.
Last year, Gulf News newspaper published an article about Turkish president's visit to Armenia. Only then Armenians, taking advantage of the opportunity, were able to print in a newspaper that allegedly with the support of Turkey Azerbaijan has imposed a blockade on Karabakh and wanted to occupy it. After reading this article, I decided to force the newspaper to correct the errors and punish them for their lies. I succeeded to do it in a month . It took a lot of efforts. All the authorities were informed in a written form that the paper was engaged in anti-Emirate propaganda.
As a result, after a great pressure from local authorities, the newspaper published a new article, which included the following: "Karabakh is historical Azerbaijani land occupied by Armenian extremists, thus killing thousands of innocent people." We must always be alert and monitor the press, both Arab and English speaking.
Over the past two years I have been signed and handed two books entitled "Armenian terrorism" and "Heydar Aliyev, National and Spiritual Values" by writer Adel Abdullah Al-Fallahi, chairman of the State Committee for Religious Affairs of Kuwait, to all government institutions and other organizations.
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iPad Air teardown reveals 32.9 WHr battery, stereo speakers
iFixit has done its teardown of the iPad Air and has found a 32.9 Watt-Hour (WHr) battery — a battery slightly larger than what Apple has advertised as a 32.4 WHr battery. It's a smaller, two-cell battery, compared to the fourth-gen iPad's 43 WHr three-cell battery. iFixit also confirms that "the speakers have gone stereo" like the iPad mini — the fourth-gen iPad and its predecessors had a mono speaker.
Few other surprises are revealed in the teardown. iFixit gives the iPad Air a repairability score of 2 out of 10, meaning that it's very hard to repair. Lots of adhesive is used to hold components in place, with iFixit noting, "This is the most difficult battery removal procedure we've seen in an iPad."
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