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Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual 2014
Jeremy Plonk's 9th season of Countdown to the Crown, Thoroughbred racing's most in-depth weekly scouting report, debuts its preseason annual with more than 130 pages of stats, analysis, historical trends, photos and more.
1 2 SAY THANKS! THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS! GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK! 3 CONTENTS 4 From The Publisher 6 Countdown to the Crown History Lesson Go inside Season 9 of the trail"s weekly scouting report. 30 Scouting the Nation Check out our scouting report from all the major 2013 meets. 31 Saratoga 32 Del Mar 33 Churchill September 34 Belmont Fall 35 Santa Anita Fall 35 Keeneland Fall 37 Churchill November 38 Aqueduct Fall 39 Hollywood Fall 40 Various Meet Recaps 72 Roads Most Traveled Which prep paths have had the most success? We rank "em. Prep Histories / Handicapping Aides Race-by-race, pages you"ll keep coming back to all spring! 74 Jerome 75 Sham 76 Lecomte 77 Kitten's Joy 78 Smarty Jones 80 Holy Bull 81 Sam F. Davis 82 Withers 83 Lewis Memorial 84 El Camino Real Derby 85 San Vicente 86 Southwest 87 Fountain of Youth 89 Risen Star 90 Mine That Bird Derby 91 Gotham 92 Palm Beach 93 Tampa Bay Derby 94 San Felipe 95 Rebel 96 Spiral 97 Sunland Derby 98 Florida Derby 100 Louisiana Derby 102 Wood Memorial 103 Santa Anita Derby 105 Arkansas Derby 107 Blue Grass 109 Lexington 110 Illinois Derby 111 Derby Trial 112 Federico Tesio 114 Building The Perfect Beast 115 Kentucky Derby 116 Peter Pan 117 Preakness 119 Belmont Stakes 8 Preseason Top 20 We try to "put "em in the gate" for the first time in 2014. 9 Countdown"s first-ever All-American Team Which horses and horsemen make the grade by category? 42 BC Juvenile: Jekyll & "Hide" Breeders" Cup can be hit or miss in foretelling trail success. 11 Top 2YO BRIS Figs Top 100 Brisnet.com Speed Figures for 2YOs of 2013. 44 The Todd Squad Which beasts of the east will emerge from Pletcher"s stable? 47 What About Bob? Go inside the west coast"s biggest influence on the trail. 51 The Big List: "14 Triple Crown Trail Contenders Countdown"s annual scouting report of 3YOs of repute. 14 Preakness Points to the Title Why and how the middle jewel has shined brightest. 19 Jockeying for a Derby Picking a Derby mount is equal parts luck and more luck. 10th anniversary of Smarty Jones still felt at Oaklawn and the US. 25 Smart As Ever __________________________ 120 Appendix __________________________ 64 Betting the Futures Wynn Las Vegas and KDFW spotlights. MANY PAGES INCLUDE CLICK-ABLE LINKS TO ADDITIONAL INFO ONLINE! __________________________ SEASON SPOTLIGHTS 71 Complete "14 Schedule All major races, easy-to-print. 121 Folks I Follow: Set bookmarks for the best journalists on the trail. 122 Wynn Las Vegas Winter Book Odds (12/30) 126 Past performances of Derby winners, 2003-'13, courtesy of Brisnet.com. 4 From the Publisher It takes stupidity or confidence to call a publication an Annual when it debuts. As a lifelong horseplayer, I proudly boast both traits as we unveil the initial Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual. The inspiration for this Preseason Annual comes from a lifetime of devouring preseason publications in the major team sports. I was raised by Street & Smith, if you will, and obsessed in later years as my sophistication for stats grew with analysts like Phil Steele. Horse racing never has had the kind of Lindy's, Athlon or Sporting News Preview publication it deserves for our regular season – the Triple Crown pursuit – until now. Inside these electronic pages, you'll find the most comprehensive look ahead at racing's stars of tomorrow. We will tackle all the major 2-year-old meets completed; detail more than 400 sophomores for this year's classics chase; and go prep-by-prep in previewing 36 key races with information to help your wagering and viewing experience. Plus, you'll get outstanding features on the key horsemen to follow as the winter and spring unfold. Many of the stories have embeddable links that you can click to follow for more information online. That's just one of the benefits to publishing in this format. The other is that it allows us to present this information to you, the horseplayer and fan, completely free. With the support of our fine title sponsors, noted in the margin of every page, my only request is that you support those who support YOU. Without the Maryland Jockey Club, Oaklawn Park, Wynn Las Vegas, Xpressbet and Horse Player NOW, there would be no Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual. If you like what you see – and the price – be sure to pay it forward to these companies. -- Jeremy Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual Copyright 2014, Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved Editor, Publisher, Designer Jeremy Plonk A big round of applause for the team… Great job, gang! Associate Editors / Researchers Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau Features Correspondent Gary West Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz.com) Contributing Photographers Jim McCue (Maryland Jockey Club) Jerry Dzierwinski (Maryland Jockey Club) Coady Photography (Delta Downs) Hodges Photography (Fair Grounds) Tom Baker (Horse Player NOW) Adam Coglianese (NYRA) Courtney Heeney (NYRA) New York Racing Association Archives Barbara Kraft (Wynn Las Vegas) Benoit Photo (Hollywood Park) Night School Tour Archives The following racing experts also were consulted in the production of the Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual: John Avello, Caton Bredar, Steve Byk, Jill Byrne, Dale Day, Ed DeRosa, John DeSantis, Mike Gathagan, Jarrod Horak, Dave Johnson, Keith Kleine, Chris Kotulak, David Longinotti, Mac McBride, Jason Milligan, Bob Neumeier, Roxy Roxborough, Brian W. Spencer, Terry Turrell, Eric Wing, Gary Yunt, Brian Zipse. Special thanks to BRISNET.com for providing speed figure & historical past performance information. 5 6 READ THE WEEKLY REPORT EVERY FRIDAY AT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM History of Countdown to the Crown By Jeremy Plonk Countdown to the Crown, my weekly scouting report, debuted nine years ago this January with one goal in mind: to leave a legacy. In an era of journalism in which bylines last 20 minutes as a lead story (on a slow news day), I set out to do something different that, hopefully, would make people remember my contribution. I wrote the first Countdown for horseplayers, and every single edition since then – closing in on 200 – has been crafted with the goal of helping your next wager. I don't claim to be the first, or the most talented wordsmith, in any of this Triple Crown trail analysis. Many have come before me and many will come after; we're all replacable. But I do feel that Countdown has best-served the paying customer of horse racing, the bettor. I make no apologies for the series' depth or length, nor it's arguably unappealing nature to mainstream folks who don't follow racing. We are blessed in racing to have many talented feature writers and producers who fill that vacancy. Countdown is written by a horseplayer for the horseplayers. I've bounced Countdown around on various websites since its debut in 2006. Each time, the decision was mine when to move, and for strategic reasons; first and foremost: where I thought it could best benefit you, the reader and bettor. Horseplayerdaily.com (2006-2007) ESPN.com (2008-2011) DRF.com (2012-2013) Countdowntothecrown.com (2014-present) That borders somewhere between sweetness and sickness, depending on your perspective. When you write a million words about horse races, you had better try to bring something different. Sections like "Three Things You Won't Read Anywhere Else" have allowed me to interject some humor, pointed criticism and general soothsaying to the top of the week before diving into the meat and potatoes analysis. And when you write a million words over nine seasons, you're bound to get some things right … and miss horribly on others. Occasionally someone still congratulates me on the ticket we cashed together on Ice Box at 20-1 in the 2010 Florida Derby. And more often, the jeers still come in for one of the worst Kentucky Derby picks of all-time, Mr. Hot Stuff in 2009. I mean, hey, I knew he'd become a major league Grade 1 winner. I just didn't know it would come over the jumps in a steeplechase at Saratoga four years later! That probably set an unbreakable record for longest preview in history: Countdown to the 2013 A.B. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase Stakes. I take my horses very seriously and take myself less seriously. Hopefully that's a formula that rolls on for another million words or so. I'm proud to make the Countdown to the Crown Preseason Annual the next step in this wonderful journey, and I hope you share it with all your racing friends. I'll see you every Friday this season at Countdowntothecrown.com! Countdown runs from the first Friday in January through the Belmont Stakes, about 22 weeks per year on average. And while it averages more than 6,000 words per week, the best estimate I can give you is that we topped the million-word mark sometime late last season (6,000 x 22 x 8 if you're building a pick three ticket – degenerate humor, get it?). 8 Updates each Friday at Countdowntothecrown.com! Jeremy Plonk's Top 20 Poll HONOR CODE Trainer: Shug McGaughey Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Fountain of Youth-Florida Derby likely. TAPITURE Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Regional option to tackle Oaklawn, too. STRONG MANDATE SHARED BELIEF CANDY BOY WRY Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Southwest-Rebel-Ark Derby make sense. Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Did a lot lately, but "Dorf keeps "em busy. Trainer: John Sadler Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Fit and tested, dances west"s big routes. Trainer: Gary "Red Dog" Hartlage Winter Home: Oaklawn Park (Ark.) Pedigree for OP dirt & Kee Poly, options. KRISTO Trainer: John Sadler Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) Late bloomer seeks stakes barometer. MEXIKOMA GOLD HAWK Trainer: Rick Mettee Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Ran on well enough in BC Juv to inspire. WICKED STRONG CHAS'S LEGACY BOND HOLDER CULPRIT RISE UP Trainer: Steve Asmussen Winter Home: Fair Grounds Will maneuver around Tapiture"s plans. BOBBY'S KITTEN CAIRO PRINCE Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Part of deep bunch w/ FoY-Fl Derby eye. Trainer: Patrick Byrne Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) Can work his way up GP ALW ladder. Trainer: Doug O"Neill Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) If a freak emerges out west, he can travel. Trainer: Dale Romans Winter Home: Gulfstream Park (Fla.) 1 1/8-miles races where he starts to shine. Trainer: Tom Amoss Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Lecomte, Smarty Jones both viable early. Trainer: Chad Brown Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Palm Beach-Blue Grass & gets green light? Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) If NY weather mild, barn may travel back. UNKNOWN ROAD COMMISSIONER HAVANA Trainer: Al Stall, Jr. Winter Home: Fair Grounds (La.) Rising player in a deep New Orleans cast. Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Router personified defies usual TAP-type. Trainer: Todd Pletcher Winter Home: Palm Meadows (Fla.) Speed and style ought to suit GP events. COOL SAMURAI Trainer: John Shirreffs Winter Home: Santa Anita (Cal.) East-west experience with high ceiling. 9 ALL-AMERICAN HORSES Jeremy Plonk selects his Super High 5 list of this year's best – from the horses to the humans! All-Established Team (proven form at age 2) Honor Code Havana Strong Mandate Shared Belief Cairo Prince Honorable mention: Tapiture All-Potential Team (sleepers you may not know) Unknown Road Commissioner Kristo Purple Sky Chas's Legacy Honorable mention: Bourne Hot, Dublin Up, Hold Everything, Mill Creek, Reach for a Kitten All-Pedigree Team (best-bred) Gold Hawk (Empire Maker - Caressing) Honor Code (AP Indy - Serena's Tune) Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate) Seal Six (full-brother to Colonel John) Wry (Distorted Humor - High Heels) Honorable mention: Indian Smoke (Zensational Indian Blessing), Long Water (Quality Road - Round Pond) All-Pace Merchants Team (front-runners) Rise Up Diamond Bachelor Green Mask Cool Cowboy Laddie Boy Honorable mention: Pablo Del Monte All-Silky Sullivan Team (deep closers) Honor Code Medal Count Tamarando Bond Holder Dance With Fate Honorable mention: Smack Smack, Arctic Slope All-Small Barn (talent for unheralded trainers) Casiguapo (Mario Morales) Laddie Boy (Chuck Peery) Dance With Fate (Peter Eurton) Hear No Evil (Stanley Gold) Honorable Judge (Butch Reid) Honorable mention: Clovelly (Phil Oliver) All-Arkansas Team (wintering AR) Strong Mandate (pictured above winning Hopeful) Wry Unstoppable Colby Legend Forever Louie's Flower Honorable mention: Son of Dixie, Smack Smack All-California Team (wintering CA) Shared Belief Candy Boy Bond Holder Kristo Cool Samurai Honorable mention: Tamarando, Dance With Fate All-Florida Team (wintering FL) Honor Code Havana Cairo Prince Commissioner Bobby's Kitten Honorable mention: Chas's Legacy, Wicked Strong All-Louisiana Team (wintering LA) Gold Hawk Unknown Road Tapiture Rise Up Albano Honorable mention: Purple Sky, Commanding Curve All-Name Team (best names – have some fun!) Jedi Mind Trick Oogeley Eye Extrasexyhippzster Big Bazinga I Earned It Baby Stroll to Victory 10 ALL-AMERICAN JOCKEYS All-Prep Team (load up your fantasy team) Javier Castellano (pictured R) John Velazquez Joel Rosario Rafael Bejarano Gary Stevens Honorable mention: Martin Garcia, Rosie Napravnik All-Money Team (big-race maestros) Gary Stevens Mike Smith John Velazquez Joel Rosario Javier Castellano Honorable mention: Rosie Napravnik All-Overdue Team (top vets w/o TC wins) Russell Baze Rafael Bejarano Corey Nakatani Julien Leparoux Jon Court Honorable mention: Garrett Gomez (if he returns). All-Next Big Thing Team (young/TC ready) Rosie Napravnik Luis Saez Irad Ortiz Jr. (pictured R) Joe Talamo Edwin Maldonado Honorable mention: Ricardo Santana All-Rekindle the Flame Team (been there) Kent Desormeaux Edgar Prado Alex Solis Victor Espinoza Jeremy Rose Honorable mention: Calvin Borel (injured) --- Projected "breakout" in 2014. ALL-AMERICAN TRAINERS All-Prep Team (load up your fantasy team) Todd Pletcher Bob Baffert D. Wayne Lukas Jerry Hollendorfer Dale Romans Honorable mention: Doug O'Neill, Mike Maker, Mark Casse, John Sadler All-Money Team (big-race maestros) Todd Pletcher (pictured R) Bob Baffert D. Wayne Lukas Bill Mott Doug O'Neill Honorable mention: Dale Romans All-Overdue Team (top veteran w/o TC win) Jerry Hollendorfer Ron McAnally Tom Proctor John Sadler Jimmy Jerkens Honorable mention (legends emeritus): King T. Leatherbury, Allen Jerkens All-Rekindle the Flame Team (been there) Nick Zito Kenny McPeek John Shirreffs Tom Albertrani Barclay Tagg Honorable mention: John Servis All-Horsemen Team (best handlers in biz) Bill Mott (pictured R) Graham Motion Shug McGaughey Richard Mandella Ron Ellis Honorable mention: Chad Brown, Christophe Clement 11 TOP 2YO BRIS SPEED FIGURES OF '13 Surfaces: D (Dirt), A (All-Weather), T (Turf) Horse Name 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Wired Bryan Ide Be Cool Unknown Road Sweet Reason-F Vicar's in Trouble Ride On Curlin Shared Belief Shared Belief Extrasexyhippzster California Chrome UnbridledForever-F Wired Bryan Wildcat Red Top Fortitude Tea Time-F Samraat Coastline Sound of Freedom Mighty Brown Havana In Trouble Honor Code Lunarwarfare Dr Sport Outstrip (GB) Honor Code Jessethemarine Rise Up Pure Sensation Taris-F Boji Moon Wired Bryan Taquito Geaux Mets Speed Rating 106 104 103 103 103 102 102 101 101 101 100 100 99 99 99 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 97 97 97 Track Name FL FG FG SAR FG ELP BHP BHP AQU BHP CD BEL GP BHP BEL AQU KEE SAR TAM BEL BEL BEL GP HST SA SAR LRL DED LRL AQU PRM SAR TAM AQU Race Date 9/28 12/14 12/19 9/1 12/14 7/13 11/10 12/14 12/21 12/22 11/30 10/19 9/14 11/16 9/15 12/18 10/5 9/2 12/7 10/5 9/29 10/5 7/14 8/11 11/1 8/31 11/16 11/23 11/16 12/21 8/3 8/11 12/7 12/12 Distances in Furlongs DistSurf 6-D 6-D 6-D 7-D 6-D 5.5-D 7-A 8.5-A 6-D 7-A 7-D 7-D 6.5-D 6.5-A 6-D 8.3-D 7-A 6-D 6-D 8-D 6-D 8-D 4.5-D 3.5-D 8-T 7-D 6-D 8.5-D 6-D 6-D 6-D 6.5-D 6-D 6-D 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 Tuff Grit Pure Sensation Giancarlo Groupthink It's a Bang Corfu Tepin-F Strong Mandate Wildcat Red Giovanni Boldini Uncle Sigh Joint Custody Bobby's Kitten Sandcat Fillies denoted with -F by name. 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 95 95 95 95 95 FAR BEL CRC AQU LRL SAR KEE SAR GP SA AQU LRL BEL AQU SAR MTH SA PEN RUI BEL CD DMR ZIA CRC LAD SA GG SAR CD AQU SA LRL RP SA SAR 7/20 10/18 12/7 12/7 11/16 8/11 10/6 9/2 10/13 11/1 12/7 12/7 10/6 12/12 7/25 10/5 11/1 11/27 7/28 10/5 6/6 8/28 10/27 8/24 8/17 9/28 4/11 8/11 10/27 12/12 10/14 12/12 9/2 11/1 8/16 5.5-D 5.5-D 6-D 6-D 6-D 6.5-D 7-A 7-D 6-D 8-T 6-D 7-D 8.5-T 6-D 5-D 6-D 8-T 6-D 5.5-D 8-D 4.5-D 6-A 6-D 7-D 6-D 6.5-D 2-A 6.5-D 8-D 6-D 5.5-D 7-D 5.5-D 8-T 6-D OurAmazingRose-F Flay Mignon-F Bobby's Kitten Gracer-F That's the Idea-F Ride On Curlin Bahnah-F Sunday Rules-F That's the Idea-F MyBrownEyedGuy Burning Warrior Papa Turf Frisco Fog-F Danza Coastline Sidearm Final Step Mr. Rover Candip Chriselliam (IRE) –F Artemis Agrotera-F 12 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 Melatonin Divine Beauty-F Jessethemarine Chitu Puddifoot-F Stopchargingmaria-F 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 BHP FG LRL BHP GP SAR CD CD BEL BEL DEL CD AP RP SA SAR NP AQU PRX KD MNR CD RUI SAR BHP CD AQU MTH BEL CRC SA FL RP SAR SA RP CRC WO GP LRL RP GP 11/16 12/21 12/7 12/7 11/9 9/1 11/30 6/29 10/19 10/5 9/12 11/30 9/14 9/12 11/2 8/23 9/28 11/3 11/26 9/14 8/3 11/30 7/28 7/22 11/23 11/30 11/3 9/1 10/19 10/12 9/28 9/28 9/18 8/11 10/20 11/7 8/24 11/2 10/13 10/19 9/29 11/30 6.5-A 6-D 7-D 6-A 6.5-D 7-D 6.5-D 6-D 7-D 8-D 8-D 8.5-D 5.5-A 6-D 6.5-T 5.5-D 6-D 8-D 6-D 7-T 6-D 6.5-D 5.5-D 5.5-D 8.5-A 6.5-D 6-D 6-D 7-D 8.5-D 6.5-D 6-D 6-D 6.5-D 5.5-D 6-D 5-T 8.5-A 6-D 6-D 6-D 6-D 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 Yes I'm Lucky Ria Antonia-F Daddy's Memory-F Five Alarm Charm-F Scandalous Act-F Debt Ceiling Time Iz Flyin Classic Giacnroll Corfu Long On Value Coup de Grace Candy Boy Ichiban Warrior Stopchargingmaria-F 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 94 CRC SA CD ELK CRC DEL RET LRL BEL DEL GP BHP CD SAR MTH HST SA 6/22 11/2 10/31 9/2 8/24 9/14 12/7 12/7 9/29 7/29 12/15 12/14 11/29 7/19 8/31 9/7 11/2 5.5-D 8.5-D 8-D 5.5-D 7-D 5.5-D 6-D 7-D 6-D 5.5-D 8-D 8.5-A 6.5-D 5.5-D 8-D 3.5-D 8.5-D Milam-F Brazen Persuasion-F Empire Dreams Artemis Agrotera-F Mexikoma Tapiture Cool Cowboy Beau Ravelle-F Richies Party Girl-F Havana The Spinmeister Cairo Prince Charleymillionaire Boji Moon Rise Up Fast Betty Blue-F Lady Genius-F Big Sugar Soda Tamarando Teardrop-F Noble Cornerstone Miss Behaviour-F Miss Narcissist-F Best Plan Yet Kristo Ogermeister Turn Up the Lights Lunarwarfare Taste Like Candy-F Ibaka Secret Kitten-F Paladin Bay-F Elusive Blueboy It's a Bang Aarons Orient Three Quarter Roy Intense Holiday Cowie Creek She's a Tiger-F 14 PREAKNESS POINTS TO THE TITLE By Jeremy Plonk Since 1986, 25 of 28 champion 3year-olds raced in the Preakness. An amazing 20 times in those 28 years, the Preakness victor earned year-end championship hardware. The Middle Jewel has become one precious gem. The whys and hows are fascinating. 15 For a race that easily could be forgotten and develop a complex like that proverbial "middle child," the Preakness needs no trips to the shrink to figure itself out. Business – and the race itself – has been booming in Baltimore. I've literally been in the trenches for part of the renaissance and seen it for myself. Handicapping hardboots used to say that the "now" horse wins the Kentucky Derby, the "fastest" horse wins the Preakness and the "fittest" horse wins the Belmont. Those labels, while applicable in some cases, don't tell the entire story. It's been a very honestly run race with suprises few and far between. Favorites are 70-for-138 (51%). Only two Preakness winners in the last 102 years went off at 20-1 or more. We've had that many bombs in the Belmont since 2008 and in the Derby since 2009. Preakness Upsets 15-1 or more since 1911 Year 1975 1925 1926 1972 2013 The facts are that between Aloma's Ruler in 1982 and today, just Louis Quatorze, Rachel Alexandra and Oxbow (video) have captured the Preakness as the pacemaker. The Preakness may better be labeled the "truest" of the Triple Crown races, given the lack of surface and bias questions, and its unmistakable results that have made sense. Not only do head-scratching results disappear, but seldom do you hear anyone talk about the track condition beating them in Baltimore. If the third Saturday in May doesn't tell the story, the Preakness post-script most often will. Consider that more Preakness champions have won the 3-year-old championship since 1986 than the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winners COMBINED: 1986-2013 Preakness winners to win 3YO title: 20 Derby winners to win 3YO title: 13 Belmont winners to win 3YO title: 7 Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 Upset Winner Master Derby Coventry Display Bee Bee Bee Oxbow Payoff $48.80 $45.60 $40.70 $39.40 $32.80 3-year-old Champion Preakness Finish Pimlico's reputation for speed belies modern reality. The track surface today clearly is the slowest of the three Triple Crown venues. The 6-furlong Maryland Sprint on the Preakness undercard has been clocked in 1:10.51 and 1:10.48 the past two years. The True North on the Belmont Day undercard typically goes in the 1:08s, while the 6-furlong split of the 7furlong Churchill Downs Handicap on Derby Day usually falls between 1:08-1:09. The days of fire-and-send racing in Maryland long have passed since "Cowboy" Jack Kaenel and Aloma's Ruler wired the 1982 Preakness (video). True, Oxbow's victory a spring ago was one for the old school – that being wire-towire (Admit it; you thought I was talking about D. Wayne Lukas and Gary Stevens, didn't you?). Will Take Charge or Orb 4th / 7th I'll Have Another WON Animal Kingdom 2nd Lookin At Lucky WON (f) Rachel Alexandra * WON Big Brown WON Curlin WON Bernardini WON Afleet Alex WON Smarty Jones WON Funny Cide WON War Emblem WON Point Given WON Tiznow Charismatic WON Real Quiet WON Silver Charm WON Skip Away 2nd Thunder Gulch 3rd Holy Bull Prairie Bayou WON A.P. Indy Hansel WON Unbridled 2nd Sunday Silence WON Risen Star WON Alysheba WON Snow Chief WON *-Summer Bird won 3YO male title, did not run in Preakness. 16 BIG HORSE, OF COURSE Without a doubt, the Preakness bounce can be traced annually to the Kentucky Derby winner. Hope springs eternal each May in Baltimore after the roses have been draped. The excitement of a potential Triple Crown winner, by definition, only is guaranteed at the Preakness. By the time the horses reach Belmont Park, history tells us more often than not that history will not be on the line. Whether it's an improbable Derby winner like War Emblem or Funny Cide, the historic grounds at Pimlico welcome them with as wide-open arms as a favored Derby winners like Fusaichi Pegasus and Orb. Fate plays no favorites, even among those examples, as the two that moved on in pursuit of the Triple Crown – and the two that failed at short prices – were not what the public had anticipated. The Kentucky Derby winner often comes to Baltimore at under-laid odds. The win pool serves as a haven for the souvenir-types and once-a-year horseplayers. Familiarity and a sense of belonging breed a false sense of confidence in the Derby winner when he arrives in Baltimore if you go strictly by the odds in the win pool. Derby Winners in Preakness Last Decade Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Derby Winner Orb I'll Have Another Animal Kingdom Super Saver Mine That Bird Big Brown Street Sense Barbaro Giacomo Smarty Jones Derby Odds 5-1 * 15-1 20-1 8-1 50-1 2-1 * 9-2 * 6-1 50-1 4-1 * Preak Odds 3-5 * 3-1 2-1 * 9-5 * 6-1 1-5 * 6-5 * 1-2 * 6-1 3-5 * Preak Finish 4th WON 2nd 8th 2nd WON 2nd dnf 3rd WON Derby winners are 10: 3-3-1 over the past decade, meaning as many have finished out of the money in the Preakness as have won. But the drop in odds from their Derby wins to Preakness Day is stark. Discerning horseplayers understand field size has a big influence on that as an 18-20 horse field in Louisville will produce larger odds than a 9-14 horse lineup at Old Hilltop. But it's hard to look at an average Derby winner of 16-1 odds the past decade and see their Preakness average off odds at 2-1 and jump up and down like you've uncorked some kind of value. - JP 17 PREAK ON What the Preakness has managed to accomplish is mix a highest-quality horse race with all the elements of a big-time festival. It has not skimped on its core, the importance of the race, in order to achieve its goal of a wider audience of fans and potential customers. Horsemen who come to Pimlico readily feel star treatment and genuinely welcomed. Guys like Doug O'Neill, Graham Motion and Bob Baffert have fired out the first pitch at nearby Camden Yards in front of the Baltimore Orioles' major league baseball audience. The stakes barn atmosphere is unmatched in American racing, the equivalent of Super Bowl combatants sharing the same locker room and everyone in the media and stable area having access to see their prepartions up close and personal. At any point in time, you can walk four feet from the Derby winner grazing on some grass just off of Rogers Avenue. Preakness boasts a large and successful infield festival special to its big day of racing. And while the rowdies once ruled the center of the Preakness Day universe, captured in a series of Youtube videos that would make most frat parties blush, there has been a tremendous pivot in that area in recent years. I spend Preakness Day in the infield annually teaching fans how to bet in the Wagering 101 tent with my Horse Player NOW team. The masses now bet seven figures inside the oval. Our massive tent, measuring 40' x 60', is stocked with mutuel bays, program sales, flatscreen TVs, and a host of expert horseplayers teaching the game's details. We've seen that infield demographic move to a more civilized group, while still partying and enjoying musical acts like never before seen at horse racing venues. We're taking bands like Maroon 5 and Train. In 2012, Bruno Mars entertained the Pimlico masses two years before being named the headline act at the 2014 Super Bowl halftime show. Above: Pimlico's infield isn't as hairy as it once was. Below: It's hard to stop a Train. Stevens & Lukas -- "Sharp Dressed Men" are just part of the Preakness show. THE RACE FOR TICKETS IS ON! 18 139th PREAKNESS GET YOUR PREAK ON TODAY. preakness.com SATURDAY, MAY 17, 2014 • PIMLICO RACE COURSE 19 Jockeying for a Derby By Gary West And so it goes, this carousel of possibilities, spinning 'round and 'round. To get the mount on the eventual Kentucky Derby winner requires, as much as anything, being there, in the perfect place, to jump aboard the opportunity as it goes by. Call it luck or fate, say it's kismet that turns the carousel, or just blame everything on the stars; but the situation with Orb, like so many others over the last many years, emphasizes just how influential can be the role of serendipity, or maybe destiny, in bringing together the Derby winner and his jockey. As Ron Anderson, a preeminently successful agent whose jockeys have won 13 Triple Crown races, said, "You just have to be lucky." Of course, good luck generally finds support from a tripod of accomplishment, talent, and hard work. That's what distinguishes the top jockeys. But they are few, and their availability fluctuates with each disappointment or injury to a Derby candidate and with every fresh emergence of a possible contender. Legitimate Triple Crown prospects also are few, and their number becomes smaller with each week of prep races. And so the jockeying for Derby mounts is intense, and it begins early, usually in August with the Saratoga and Del Mar meetings, which are traditionally fecund ground for prospects, and continues right up until the names drop into the entry box and sometimes until the horses line up in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. For the jockeys, agents, trainers, owners and horses involved, the spinning of the merry-go-round can mean everything, or nothing: It can determine the arc and direction of a career, or it can fade into the season's obscure footnotes. The carousel can be a continuing source of drama and entertainment, but fans and horseplayers probably would be wise to draw no conclusions. Ultimately, only history and the race itself can assign importance to what it all means when the carousel stops spinning and the jockeys finally have their Derby mounts. What did it mean when Castellano turned down the invitation to ride Orb? Did it mean Orb lacked talent, did it mean Castellano lacked judgment, or did it mean the jockey simply wasn't in the right place when the opportunity arrived? After all, what could Castellano have done? He and his agent, Matt Muzikar, already had committed to Violence for the Fountain of Youth, making them the envy of every jockey and agent in the country. It's the rare horse that, early in the year, already has presented indisputable evidence that he has the talent and quality to get to the Kentucky Derby, but Violence was just such a racehorse. A year ago, Javier Castellano could have had the mount on Orb. Joel Rosario had ridden the colt in each of his first five races, but he committed to Speak Logistics for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. And so the opportunity was there for Castellano, an invitation on a silver salver, to ride Orb at Gulfstream Park. But it was an invitation the jockey couldn't accept. Javier Castellano loved his seat aboard Honor Code after Novemberâ€&#x;s Remsen, but he also was sitting pretty with a chance to ride Orb one year ago. 20 An uncommonly handsome colt, Violence embodied an ideal combination of speed and stamina. And after he won the CashCall Futurity, he sat on or near the top of almost everybody's list of Triple Crown contenders. Muzikar and Castellano couldn't jump off the early Derby favorite to ride a colt that was making his stakes debut -- at least not without inviting a sanity hearing. And, as if the choice wasn't already clear, Todd Pletcher, whose stable was arguably the most formidable in the country, trained Violence, as well as a flock of other Triple Crown possibilities. And for a jockey, Pletcher's favor can virtually guarantee success. position; he also had to have the skill and sometimes the jump to get underneath the ball and the graceful coordination to welcome it into the webbing of his mitt. That's precisely what Anderson did in 1995, when he worked for Gary Stevens. Thunder Gulch: A Perfect Storm "We were in Hong Kong, Gary Stevens and I," Anderson said, "and (Trainer D. Wayne) Lukas called and asked me to ride Thunder Gulch. Well, Gary (Stevens) didn't like the horse. He rode him in the Remsen and won, but he really didn't like him." Jockeys, as you know, don't And so Rosario find Derby went one way, mounts in Hong Castellano Kong, but another, and Stevens had no John Velazquez reason to think he got the mount. was going to need one, He and Orb, of course, at least not until late won the Fountain of Joel Rosario and agent Ron Anderson April. Riding two days a Youth. Seriously injured talk the talk with Donna Brothers. week for extravagant while finishing second in purses and winning a game effort, Violence never raced again. with nearly 23 percent of his mounts, Stevens returned to California only twice during the run-up Velazquez also won the Florida Derby on Orb. But to the Triple Crown. On one of those visits, he won he was committed to Pletcher's latest star, the Santa Anita Derby with a diminutive colt named Verrazano, the unbeaten winner of the Wood Larry The Legend and so seemed assured a "live" Memorial, for the Kentucky Derby. And so in three mount, on one of the favorites, at Churchill Downs short months the carousel turned full circle, and on the first Saturday in May. But the carousel turns Rosario, who had lost the mount on Orb in relentlessly. February, regained it in May, just in time to win the Kentucky Derby. When Larry The Legend was declared off the Derby trail because of an injury, Stevens suddenly lost his "Orb fell in our laps," said Anderson, who has ticket to Churchill, and he didn't have another worked for many of the sport's top jockeys, option. Nor was he eager to accept Lukas' including Chris Antley, Jerry Bailey, Gary Stevens, thunderous invitation. Thunder Gulch had made an Garrett Gomez and, now, Rosario. "That's the way it impression on his jockey in the Remsen, albeit a happens sometimes. You just have to be lucky." largely negative one, lugging in badly and ominously down the stretch. But a jockey and his agent also have to put themselves in position to get lucky. Good luck's like But that was his first start for Lukas. After the a fly ball: It might in retrospect look an easy catch, Remsen, Lukas outfitted the colt with blinkers. And but the expert fielder had to know how to play the with Mike Smith riding, Thunder Gulch won the batter, deep or shallow, shaded to the left or right, Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby. But Smith and he had to possess the foresight to put himself in 21 was committed to Talkin Man, the Wood winner. And Pat Day, who rode Thunder Gulch to a fourthplace finish in the Blue Grass, had the mount on Timber Country, widely considered the best of Lukas' three Derby horses, the other being Serena's Song. And so Thunder Gulch was without a jockey, and one of the best jockeys in the world was without a Derby mount. Still, Anderson had to do a little running to get underneath the fly ball. "Gary didn't want to ride him (Thunder Gulch)," Anderson said. "And so I went to Mike Smith, and I said, 'Mike, you have to do me a favor.'" Smith, who had become very familiar with the colt in Florida, assured Stevens that the Thunder Gulch going into the Derby was nothing like the little lugging-in colt of the Remsen. And regardless of his performance in the Blue Grass over the notoriously speed-biased Keeneland surface, this Thunder Gulch, Smith told his friend, had a chance. And so Stevens not only accepted the mount, but he gave one of the best riding performances in Derby history. Although starting from post position No. 16, Stevens and the 24-1 long shot turned a potential wide trip into a perfect journey, winning easily. They, of course, went on to add victories in the Belmont, Swaps, and Travers to their accomplishments. Bailey and Barbaro Yes, you just have to be lucky. But sometimes, depending on the turn of the wheel, bad luck seems inexorable and inescapable. Early in 2001, for example, Bailey had five options for the Kentucky Derby, five prominent possibilities, including the champion juvenile of the previous season, Macho Uno, but then, about a week before the race, the Hall of Fame jockey had none, as they all had either disappointed or met with injury. He ended up on a 47-1 fantasy named Talk Is Money, who finished last. Timing is the linchpin. Ripeness is all, as the poet said. Consider how the timing affected events in 2006. The invitation arrived in the winter of 2005, when Bailey, who had Last 10 Derby Winners – Riders Up! Horse 3yo Debut Derby Rider Orb Rosario Rosario I'll Have Another Gutierrez Gutierrez Animal Kingdom Maragh Velazquez Super Saver Dominguez Borel Mine That Bird Lambert Borel Big Brown Desormeaux Desormeaux Street Sense Borel Borel * Barbaro Prado Prado Giacomo Smith Smith * Smarty Jones Elliott Elliott * * - Denotes jockey rode in all career starts through that point. recently won the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saint Liam, was enjoying the holidays with his family in New York. He was also contemplating retirement. "Michael (Matz) called up and said he had a real nice colt he wanted Jerry (Bailey) to ride in the Tropical Park Derby," recalled Anderson, who was Bailey's agent. "But Jerry didn't want to go down to Florida until after the first of the year, and so we passed. We had no way of knowing how good he was going to be." And so on New Year's Day, Barbaro won the Tropical Park Derby with Edgar Prado riding him for the first time. That was the initial domino to fall methodically in their series of victories: next came the Holy Bull Stakes, then the Florida Derby, and finally the Kentucky Derby. Eighteen days after Barbaro won at Calder, Bailey announced his retirement. A Charismatic Decision Yes, sometimes you just have to be lucky; you just have to be where time and place converge in a perfect moment of opportunity. Chris Antley walked into such a moment in 1999. At the time, with the Derby rapidly approaching, Lukas was looking for a rider for Charismatic. Bailey had won the Lexington on the big colt but was committed to Worldly Manner for the Derby, and Stevens, a logical choice, was obligated to the flashy General Challenge. And so after a race at Santa Anita one day, in the tunnel that leads from the track to the paddock, Lukas asked Laffit Pincay, Jr., if he would ride Charismatic in the Kentucky Derby. Pincay must Even Pincay passed on Charismatic. He rode 2 winners on Derby Day "99 – at Hollywood Park. 22 have seemed like the ace in the hole; he had ridden the horse in several races, including the Santa Anita Derby, where they finished fourth. But Pincay, as Lukas recalled the moment, turned down the offer, citing several local opportunities he had lined up for that day. But the rejection didn't faze Lukas. Spotting Antley nearby, the trainer immediately offered him the mount. Antley, of course, accepted. And so on May 1, Pincay won two races at Hollywood Park, and Antley won the Kentucky Derby on Charismatic. Experience, Lukas said, is the "paramount" quality he's looking for when searching for a Derby jockey, which is why years ago he quickly issued an invitation to Antley, whose first roseate victory came in 1991 on Strike the Gold. Lukas said he looks for a rider who can handle "the magnitude of the moment." Beyond that, Lukas said, he hopes to match the jockey's skills with the horse's. But he won't commit, he said, until after the final prep race simply because he values flexibility. "It's an ongoing evaluation," Lukas said. "A lot of trainers like to settle on one guy, and maybe it's because of my coaching background, but I'm evaluating all the time, and I'm not afraid to make a change. You can't lead with your heart . . . Bill Parcells and Bobby Knight never hesitated to make a change when it was necessary, and I think that's the best approach." Choosing This Year's Mount And so it goes, this carousel of possibilities, spinning 'round and 'round. Anderson explained that he prefers to keep his options open as long as possible, taking the road to the Derby one race at a time. When he spots a promising prospect, he'll contact a trainer just to express interest, but for the most part he'll hesitate, he said, to make a commitment beyond the next race, whatever it might be, because, of course, he knows as well as anyone how quickly and unpredictably and relentlessly everything can turn. Anderson said he expects Rosario to ride many promising youngsters in on the trail. The agent has spoken with several trainers, made many inquiries, and received numerous invitations. Rosario has become one of the sport's elite jockeys, and undoubtedly he will have many options as the prospects advance along the various roads leading to the Triple Crown. But as those roads converge, he and Anderson will have to make choices. And they're always tough. For the moment, after guiding the superlatively promising Honor Code to a narrow victory in the D. Wayne Lukas: "A lot of trainers like to settle on one guy, and maybe it"s because of my coaching background, but I"m evaluating all the time, and I"m not afraid to make a change. You can"t lead with your heart." Remsen, Castellano occupies what is probably the most enviable seat on the carousel. But having been there before, he and Muzikar, know how precarious every seat can be, even for the leading jockey in the country. Few jockeys have been in a better position than Castellano's in 2012. He regularly rode Algorithms, Discreet Dancer, El Padrino, Gemologist and Union Rags, the overpowering colt who probably should have been the champion 2-year-old of 2011. When Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, and Union Rags all aimed for the Fountain of Youth, they forced Castellano and Muzikar into making a decision. They went with Algorithms, the unbeaten colt who seemingly had an abundance of energy still in his tank when he won the Holy Bull Stakes by five lengths in only his third start. But the day after entries were taken and Castellano was named to ride him, Algorithms injured himself during routine training. The injury didn't seem serious initially, but, as it turned out, the handsome colt fractured a splint bone and never raced again. "We had to make a decision," Muzikar said. "In this game, you want to wait as long as you can -- some trainers are OK with that, and some aren't -- but 23 eventually you have to make a decision. And then it all went south . . . A horse can spike a temperature or bruise a foot, and everything changes." Like most astute observers, Muzikar is optimistic about Honor Code and believes the son of A. P. Indy is a premier candidate for the Triple Crown. He won the Remsen by only a nose, but he succeeded in spite of his inexperience, and in doing so he showed unexpected versatility. Sensing a soporific pace, Castellano moved early, and they made the lead near the top of the stretch. It was an unusual position for the stretch-running colt. "When he got up there, he didn't know what to do," Muzikar said about Honor Code, "and so he let go of the bit. But then he came on again. He's like a big kid; he's just starting to figure things out." If Honor Code runs in only the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby to prepare for the Triple Crown, that leaves a multitude of other prep races. And although Muzikar is very hopeful and optimistic about Honor Code, he, too, knows how quickly and unpredictably and relentlessly everything can turn. "We're all going after the horses we feel will be legitimate Derby prospects," Muzikar explained, "and obviously you want to line up as many opportunities as you can. You can never have too many . . . There's no doubt about it: You have to be lucky." From a handicapping point of view, all the jockeying and all the spinning probably mean little. A prior commitment isn't necessarily a choice, and that lugging-in colt that didn't make a good first impression might become a completely different horse along the road to the Derby. Most of all though, as jockeys and agents vie for opportunities, as trainers attempt to secure commitments, and as horses reveal themselves during this prelude to the Triple Crown, they'll all discover, and in their discovery remind us, that we're all powerless to resist luck and happenstance. LEARN MORE about jockeys' agents in this Night School video with agent Doug Bredar, here. Joel Rosario had an on-again, off-again relationship with Orb  until it mattered most. 24 A N Y W H E R E WATCH AND WAGER FROM ANYWHERE! • Exclusive handicapping tips and tools • FREE Past Performances • Live streaming video and race replays • Real time racing information • EZmoney online deposit and withdrawal service Be a part of all the action Anywhere in Arkansas! $100 SIGN UP BONUS AT OAKLAWNANYWHERE.COM Gambling Problem? 1-800-522-4700 25 John Servis (L), Pat Chapman (C) and Stewart Elliott (R) gathered on the Night School Tour in 2013. By Jeremy Plonk It's been 10 years since the great Smarty Jones tilted the Arkansas Derby & Oaklawn racing on a positive trajectory – and his impact is still being felt. Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella had big dreams for his family track's 100th anniversary season in 2004. But even the most optimistic promoter could not have envisioned the impact that Centennial season had on the racetrack located in Hot Springs, Ark. Cella dreamed big, offering a $5 million bonus to any horse who could sweep Oaklawn's stakes trio of the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby, and then complete a grand slam by adding the Kentucky Derby (video). That big, dangling green carrot might lure some of New York, Florida or California's top sophomores; or so the premise. What it did lure was Pennsylvania-bred Smarty Jones from his Philadelphia home base. The rest became racing lore. In the six months to open 2004, Smarty Jones went from local phenom to national headliner. The covers of Sports Illustrated and ESPN The Magazine became his pasture. He took his 8-for-8 record, $5 million bonus, and chance at history into the most raoucous Belmont Stakes anyone had ever witnessed. The largest crowd ever to see ANY sport in New York turned out, some 120,139 strong (17,000 more than any Belmont Stakes ever). And as a deflated Tom Durkin declared, "And Birdstone wins the Belmont," the mania created by Smarty Jones came to a bittersweet end. Never again would he race. The fairytale had a disappointing and premature conclusion no matter how impressive the ledger. Undefeated Kentucky Derby Winners Year 2008 2006 2004 1977 1969 1922 1915 Horse Big Brown Barbaro Smarty Jones Seattle Slew Majestic Prince Morvich Regret Career 8: 7-0-0 7: 6-0-0 9: 8-1-0 17: 14-2-0 10: 9-1-0 16: 12-2-1 11: 9-1-0 26 LEAVING HIS MARK The romance of Smarty Jones could have ended there, not to mention his impact. He would go on to a stallion career far sooner than anyone wanted, and subsequently has failed to deliver in the context of a history-making sire. Shuttling between stud farms in Pennsylvania and Peru, of all places, his top sons in America have been the likes of G1-winning sprinter Centralintelligence, as well as Backtalk, Rogue Romance and Isn't He Clever. But to say that the Smarty Jones story faded away because of a modest stallion career would be to short-change his impact. The path he paved from the Mid-Atlantic to Oaklawn would be followed a year later by Delawarebased Tim Ritchey and his rousing prospect Afleet Alex. He would go on to Preakness and Belmont Stakes-winning success, further entrenching Oaklawn Park's spring 3-year-old program as the place to be in the mid-2000s. Two years later, when a debut winner on Super Bowl Sunday at Gulfstream Park was privately purchased, the path to the Triple Crown became clear: Arkansas. Trainer Steve Asmussen received Curlin in his barn from owner Jess Jackson with the goal of getting to Kentucky. Had Smarty Jones, and subsequently Afleet Alex, not blazed such a successful path, few would fathom Curlin coming to Asmussen's barn and racing in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby for his new California connections. By the time Curlin blitzed Hot Springs, Oaklawn had seen three of modern racing's greatest sophomores headline its series in just a four-year span. And they came via Pennsylvania, Delaware and Florida – not exactly a feeder program to the OP scene. It all began with Smarty Jones, and a decade later, these races continue to attract the best horsemen in the land. Last year's quartet of Oaklawn 3-year-old showcases were won by D. Wayne Lukas (twice), Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher. It gets no bigger than that. Oaklawn's big series of Derby preps now is firmly entrenched in the national landscape. New races have evolved (the aptly named Smarty Jones Stakes), while traditional ones have received massive purse increases. Consider the purses pre-Smarty and today: Oaklawn's 3YO Stakes 2003 vs. Today Stakes Race Smarty Jones G3 Southwest G2 Rebel G1 Arkansas Derby 2003 Purse $0 $75,000 $125,000 $500,000 2014 Purse $150,000 $300,000 $600,000 $1,000,000 That lasting purse impact on today's Triple Crown trail is real, but Smarty Jones' influence off the track also was felt in many ways. At home in Pennsylvania, a sports-crazy Governor Ed Rendell (who co-hosted a Philadelphia Eagles postgame show while in office) jumped on the Smarty Party. The "cool-factor" and mania of this underdog's Triple Crown pursuit put racing in a positive light at a time when slots legislation was on questionable ground. The surge in excitement from Smarty Jones showed how great horse racing could be in the Commonwealth, influencing politicos who came on board with their votes less than a month after the Belmont Stakes. Without slots passage, the future of Philadelphia Park and Penn National were tenuous. Both have undergone remarkable 27 asthetic makeovers, and solidifed of their racing product to some extent. Presque Isle Downs' racino in Erie, Pa., unveiled in 2007, likely would not exist if Smarty had not pushed slots over the edge. Beyond Pennsylvania borders, Smarty Jones' Belmont was so popular that he almost singlehandedly changed the national television contracts for the Triple Crown. Nearly 22 million viewers tuned in to NBC Sports for the bid at history, making it the most-watched program on television that week – of any genre – beating all the prime-time audiences despite a Saturday midday timeslot that is a ratings graveyard. Those were staggering numbers in the cable and sattelite television era, matching up with the greatest Belmont telecast ratings even when there were only a handful of channels on the dial. The New York Racing Association, long at odds over Churchill Downs' bigger share of the Triple – Owner Pat Crown pie because of the Kentucky Derby's historical dwarfing of the ratings battles, was armed with a false sense of confidence that their event could stand on its own, Smarty Jones or not. NYRA went out on its own at first chance in 2006 with a new television deal on ABC Sports, leaving the Triple Crown package and splitting ways with NBC's continued Derby and Preakness coverage. For the next five years, until returning back to NBC and a streamlined network of Triple Crown coverage in 2012, NYRA learned that ratings without Smarty Jones just weren't the same. Big Brown's 2008 Triple Crown bid on ABC lured just over 13 million viewers. Truth is, the 2006, '07 and '08 Belmont telecasts COMBINED were just about equal to Smarty Jones' 2004 TV audience. His reach has been unreachable by any horse since. Notable Arkansas Derby Alumni Since SmartyJones in 2004 Year 2013 2012 2010 2009 2007 2006 2005 Horse Will Take Charge Secret Circle Super Saver Summer Bird Curlin Lawyer Ron Afleet Alex Note Finalist, '13 3YO Champ Finalist, '13 Sprint Champ '10 Ky Derby winner '09 3YO Champ '07-'08 Horse of the Year '07 Champ Older Male '05 3YO Champ FOREVER LINKED During Smarty Jones Day at Parx on Labor Day 2013, our Night School Tour fan education event had the pleasure of gathering owner Pat Chapman, trainer John Servis and Jockey Stewart Elliott for an inimate, meet-and-greet with the fans. It was amazing to see the excitement and stories the fans shared with the connections, not to mention the vivid recollections of the races and decisions that went into Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid. All three remain based in Philadelphia, still combine forces in various races – and all shared pride in a son of Smarty Jones winning on the Labor Day card for other connections. It was only fitting. The only one missing was Roy Chapman, Pat's husband and founder of Someday Farm. "Chappy" passed in 2006. Even though a decade has passed, it seemed as if only yesterday to the trio as they beamed. "It's incredible; I still get letters from young people," Chapman said. "There's a book out called Dear Smarty that's fan letters from young children to Smarty Jones. It was released again this year, so young fans, 10-1112-year-olds started writing letters again to Smarty. The letters were then sent on to me. He is still impacing young people and he certainly made a big impression on the industry here in Pennsylvania. He just worked wonders for racing and breeding here in Pennsylvania." "It's incredible; I still get letters from young people." Chapman 28 29 30 31 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Just as it is at Del Mar, the premier summer stakes progress the 2-year-olds on the main track to a 7furlong peak. The G1 Hopeful on closing weekend at the Spa continued a dream renaissance year for D. Wayne Lukas, who was back at it with Strong Mandate. The DWL "Coaching Tree" was in full effect, as ex-assistant Todd Pletcher won two stakes and former Pletcher aide Michael Dilger the other. STAKES STARS: Strong Mandate made three local starts in six weeks, capped by a G1 Hopeful domination by nearly 10 lengths on a muddy/sealed track. Corfu and Wired Bryan, winners of the Spa lead-in stakes, both were beaten more than a dozen lengths that day. The Hopeful, despite over a wet track, appeared a legit result as its 1-2 finishers came back to place in both the BC Juvenile (Strong Mandate) and Delta Jackpot (Casiguapo) after Champagne hiccups. Stakes Sanford Sar Special WthAntcptn Hopeful (video) July 19-September 2, 2013 MEET RECAP Dist 6F 6.5F 8.5Ft 7F Winner Wired Bryan Corfu Bashart Strong Mandate Trainer M. Dilger T. Pletcher T. Pletcher D.W. Lukas UNDER-THE-RADAR: Todd Pletcher had fast 2YOs, no surprise there. But his long-winded, highly pedigreed Commissioner bears watching after a debut 9F win at the Spa. He"s training in Florida for the GP routes. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Strong Mandate Lukas Our Eyes: BC Juv wide effort earned more credibility. Honor Code McGaughey Our Eyes: Remarkable debut rally (video) was a wow. Havana Pletcher Our Eyes: Eventual G1 winner had brilliant unveiling. Commissioner Pletcher Our Eyes: Rested since, training in FL; run-all-day. Tapiture Asmussen Our Eyes: Took on Strong Mandate here; won CD G2. In Trouble T. Dutrow Our Eyes: Debut winner added G2 Futurity at Bel. Casiguapo Morales Our Eyes: Calder traveler ran well no matter where. Wired Bryan Dilger Our Eyes: Fast 2YO will have to prove he can route. Divine Energy Pletcher Our Eyes: Maiden possesses considerable upside. Due Diligence Pletcher Our Eyes: Coolmore buy after big-time debut; return? Sanford: Wired Bryan for ex-Pletcher asst Dilger. Click pic to watch the Sanford! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: All three Triple Crown race winners of 2013 and 2012 competed during the previous summer"s Saratoga meet. This includes five unique runners among the six marquee winners – Orb, Oxbow, Palace Malice, I"ll Have Another and Union Rags. Leading 2013 Champion 3-Year-old candidate Will Take Charge was a Saratoga debuter as well. Ky Derby: Orb ("13), I"ll Have Another ("12), Super Saver ("10), Big Brown ("08), Funny Cide ("03). Preakness: Oxbow ("13), I"ll Have Another ("12), Big Brown ("08), Afleet Alex ("05), Funny Cide ("03). Belmont: Palace Malice ("13), Union Rags ("12), Drosselmeyer ("10), Afleet Alex ("05), Birdstone ("04). 32 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: The summer crescendo builds to closing day"s G1 Del Mar Futurity, but the star where "The Turf Meets the Surf" this year came out of the maiden ranks. Eventual Breeders" Cup Juvenile champ New Year's Day first ball-dropped in a pair of Dmr maiden tilts, winning at second-asking in what turned out to be the MSW of the year (video). Unfortunately, he"s since been retired to injury. STAKES STARS: Turf speedster Diamond Bachelor turned heads in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf and lured Julien Leparoux back from Keeneland. He appears to be Patrick Biancone"s best young horse since returning from suspension in 2007-"0 8. But it was hardworking Tamarando who got the big prize on the main track, winning the G1 Del Mar Futurity in the Cal-bred"s third start in 45 days. The Jerry Hollendorfer trainee was iron-clad through the fall as well at SA & BHP. Albert's Hope lost weight for Mike Puype after Best Pal and tucked away for SA. Stakes Best Pal Graduation I"m Smokin OT Juv Turf Dmr Futrty July 17-September 4, 2013 MEET RECAP Dst 6.5F 5.5F 6F 8F t 7F Winner Alberts Hope California Chrome Jedi Mind Trick Diamond Bachelor Tamarando Trainer M. Puype A.Sherman J. Sadler P. Biancone J.Hollendorfer UNDER-THE-RADAR: Maiden rivals New Year's Day, Bond Holder and Candy Boy didn"t stay out of the spotlight long, and became G1-types by season"s end. Enigmatic Indexical out-dashed the eventual BC champ before tanking thereafter. Maybe Ben Cecil can turn him back the right way. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Tamarando Hollendorfer Our Eyes: Tough campaigner for demanding 'Dorf. Dance With Fate Eurton Our Eyes: Like his versatility for underrated outfit. Bond Holder O"Neill Our Eyes: Nibbled 3x in Dmr MSW pre- SA breakout. Station House R. Mandella Our Eyes: Liked turf route win lots; better than recent. Indexical Cecil Our Eyes: Follow-ups to New Year's Day race mystify. Alberts Hope Puype Our Eyes: Sometimes forced layoff at 2 helps career. Southern Freedom Hollendorfer Our Eyes: Maiden faced tough hombres; on the brink. Schoolofhardrocks Hofmans Our Eyes: Debut route winner must get back soon. Bond Holder developed into a legit BC prospect. Watch the Del Mar Futurity by clicking pic! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Twice in the new millennium, Del Mar alumni have won two-thirds of the Triple Crown – I"ll Have Another and Point Given. The key west coast summer meet has produced the Preakness winner twice in the last four years. Ky Derby: I"ll Have Another ("12). Preakness: I"ll Have Another ("12), Lookin At Lucky ("10), Point Given ("02), Belmont: Point Given ("02), Commendable ("00). BET DEL MAR RACING AT: 33 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Churchill"s first September meeting replaced the former Turfway stand during this point in the Kentucky circuit calendar. The lone 2-year-old stakes for the boys, the G3 Iroquois, was extended to a two-turn race at 1-1/16 miles this year and kicked off the Kentucky Derby qualifying points chase with a 10-4-2-1 reward. STAKES STARS: The Dale Romans Show played out in the short meet"s top 2YO offering, as the 2012 Eclipse Awardwinning trainer ran 1-2. Cleburne (34-1) and Smart Cover (26-1) were ignored by the public to the tune of a crisp $500 exacta for two bucks. Third-place finisher Tapiture would return during the Fall Meet to tally Churchill"s G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Meanwhile, 6th-place finisher Rise Up would rebound to win the Jean Lafitte and G3 Delta Downs Jackpot after heading south in what has turned out to be a very productive Iroquois experiment. Stakes Iroquois September 6-29, 2013 MEET RECAP Dist 8.5F Winner Cleburne (video) Trainer D. Romans UNDER-THE-RADAR: As productive as the Iroquois turned out, the two most impressive juvenile colts to run at the CD September meet may have been ones who didn"t return for November. Wry is a wonderfully bred Distorted Humor-High Heels maiden winner for Gary "Red Dog" Hartlage and could be any kind. Expect him to go to OP, while FG"s winter gets a boost from sharp Purple Sky. His debut placing behind Honor Code at Saratoga foretold a promising CD September maiden breaker. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Wry Hartlage Our Eyes: Can't wait to see this one at Oaklawn. Cleburne Romans Our Eyes: Shins thwarted his BC Juvenile aspirations. Smart Cover Romans Our Eyes: Also shin issues to overcome this winter. Tapiture Asmussen Our Eyes: Highly regarded in barn & developing well. Rise Up Amoss Our Eyes: Handled 2 turns at Delta better than at CD. Purple Sky Stall Our Eyes: Class-tested at Spa; gets better w/ ground. Culprit Romans Our Eyes: Showed he can get distance; inconsistent. Almost Famous Byrne Our Eyes: Impressive debut win; also won at CD Nov. Arctic Slope McPeek Our Eyes: Showed he can get distance; inconsistent. Cleburne strikes a historic pose–can he deliver? Click pic to watch his Iroquois Stakes upset! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The September meeting at Churchill Downs was new this year and replaced Turfway Park"s dates on the calendar while also over-lapping dates with Kentucky Downs" lucrative, all-turf meeting. Ky Derby: incomplete. Preakness: incomplete. Belmont: incomplete. THAT'S A FACT September has been a good spot to route on the Kentucky calendar historically. The former Ky Cup Juvenile at Turfway developed the likes of Point Given, Editor"s Note, Tejano Run and 2YO champs Hansen, Boston Harbor and Vindication. 34 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: A staggering eight of the last 12 Belmont Stakes winners competed during the track"s previous Fall Meet as 2YOs – not to mention last year"s Derby winner Orb. So you know this one bears scrutiny. Because of "Big Sandy"s" 1-1/2 miles circumference, all the 2YO dirt races are around one turn, even at 1 1/16 miles. STAKES STARS: Both Belmont route stakes winners were made the favorites at the Breeders" Cup, namely Champagne champ Havana (Juvenile, finished 2nd) and Pilgrim victor Bobby's Kitten (Juvy Turf, finished 3rd). Strong Mandate, up the track in the Champagne, rebounded to run 3rd in the BC Juvenile. That highly productive mile also saw runner-up Honor Code go on to win the G2 Remsen, while Casiguapo exited to a 2nd-place run in the G3 Delta Jackpot. It marked easily the strongest 2YO race in America outside the Breeders" Cup, and arguably including it. Stakes Futurity Champagne Pilgrim Bongard (s) September 7 – October 27, 2013 MEET RECAP Dist 6F 8F 8.5F t 7F Winner In Trouble (video) Havana Bobby"s Kitten Wired Bryan Trainer T. Dutrow T. Pletcher C. Brown M. Dilger UNDER-THE-RADAR: Some of America"s toughest MSW races are at this meet, and tab some Belmont losers that could have potential breakout efforts, such as Cool Samurai for John Shirreffs, Bourbon Sense for Chad Brown and Tourist for Bill Mott. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Havana Pletcher Our Eyes: Blistered early at Bel, handier in BC bid. Honor Code McGaughey Our Eyes: Not afraid of a fight & takes track with him. Strong Mandate Lukas Our Eyes: Bounced Champage, bouced back in BC. Wicked Strong J. Jerkens Our Eyes: Progressed perfect at Bel pre-Remsen 3rd. Bobby's Kitten Brown Our Eyes: Bet Ramsey already has Blue Grass circled. Casiguapo Morales Our Eyes: Fla road warrior handled Belmont just fine. Noble Moon Gyarmati Our Eyes: Debut winner showed late kick in Nashua. Peace Mission Shirreffs Our Eyes: Rookie handled promising Surfing USA. Shadow Banking Brown Our Eyes: Pilgrim 2nd w/ quick turn of foot; return? Wired Bryan Dilger Our Eyes: Remained atop the NYBs, but will he route? Havana cleared the air in the Champagne. Click pic to watch the race! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: From 2002-"06 every single Belmont Stakes winner was an alumnus of the previous local Fall Meet. This stand has continued a strong run in recent years with Orb, Union Rags, Super Saver and Drosselmeyer as well. Ky Derby: Orb ("13), Super Saver ("10), Preakness: Afleet Alex ("05), Point Given ("02), Belmont: Union Rags ("12), Drosselmeyer ("10), Da"Tara ("08), Jazil ("06), Afleet Alex ("05), Birdstone ("04), Empire Maker ("03), Point Given ("02), 35 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Whether this meet was called Oak Tree in the past or Santa Anita autumn in the present, it"s always taken on even more esteem in a year when the Breeders" Cup Juvenile has been hosted locally. For many California 2-year-olds, it"s their first taste of dirt racing after synthetic summers at BHP and Dmr, and also the first dirt routes of repute on the circuit. Those who transition sprint/synthetic form begin to tell the tale of the west"s best prospects. STAKES STARS: Maiden Bond Holder posted the G1 FrontRunner around two bends (video) and put Derby-Preakness winner Doug O"Neill back in the discussion, fresh on the heels of I"ll Have Another and Goldencents. While east coaster Shanghai Bobby raided the "12 BC Juvenile and signaled a softened home team, this past fall"s Juvenile (video) showed the west may be back. New Year's Day, freshened since a Dmr maiden win, rallied to take the year"s big 2YO prize. Californians held three of the top five BCJ placings, but New Year's Day was retired in December. Stakes FrontRunner Zuma Beach September 27-November 3, 2013 MEET RECAP Dist 8.5F 8F t Winner Bond Holder Aotearoa Trainer D. O"Neill L. Powell Speakeasy GldStateJuv(s) BC Juvenile BC Juvy Turf 6F 8F 8.5F 8F t Can the Man Better Bet New Year"s Day Outstrip (GB) B. Baffert M.Harrington B. Baffert C. Appleby UNDER-THE-RADAR: The last five Santa Anita Derbies in the spring have gone to O"Neill (2), Baffert (2) and John Sadler (1). While O"Neill & Baffert had major stakes winners at the meet, Sadler had one of the most impressive in a non-stakes. Keep an eye on Oct. route MSW winner Kristo, whose performance & pedigree are brilliant. Hold Everything hasn"t won yet for Baffert, but appears capable of bigger things. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH * -- several BC alumni covered in other meets. Bond Holder O"Neill Our Eyes: So much better than 1-6 record indicates. Tap It Rich Baffert Our Eyes: Dazzling MSW winner needs to regroup. Kristo Sadler Our Eyes: May be 1 to deny Baffert/O'Neill's SA run. Can the Man Baffert Our Eyes: Won sprint, lost route -- but genes do fit. Hold Everything Baffert Our Eyes: Easily 2nd best in potential key Kristo race. Outstrip (GB) Appleby Our Eyes: BCJT champ's mama was freak on Kee Poly. We're dying to see BCJT champ Outstrip try Kee. Click pic to watch him mow the SA lawn! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The meet has gone by titles such as Oak Tree at Santa Anita and most recently the Santa Anita Fall Meeting. While Mine That Bird did race here during the 2008 Breeders" Cup Juvenile, the meet"s only local participants in recent years to go on to recent Triple Crown triumphs were Giacomo and Lookin At Lucky. Ky Derby: Mine That Bird-BC ("09), Giacomo ("05). Preakness: Lookin At Lucky ("10). Belmont: none. BET SANTA ANITA RACING AT: 36 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Four weeks of racing in October don"t allow for a tremendous quantity of 2-year-old events, but Keeneland stands for quality. The interesting twist here is that the meet offered some of the first tests around two turns for the juveniles from Saratoga and Churchill"s September meeting. The G1 Breeders" Futurity and G3 Bourbon dotted the marquee. STAKES STARS: We Miss Artie provided the 8th straight G1 Breeders" Futurity upset of 5-1 or more in the Poly era when rallying to win at nearly 10-1 on the tote. The Todd Pletcher trainee marked the 4th straight winner of this race to exit a Saratoga grass prep. He completed a G1 sweep of 2YO events at the meet for sire Artie Schiller, whose daughter My Conquestadory had won the Alcibiades a day prior. Meanwhile, the G3 Bourbon was washed off the turf and moved to the main track, where 23-1 outsider Poker Player flopped a straight. His late surge denied Bashart and Pletcher a sweep of the meet"s two premier 2-year-old heats (video). Stakes Breeders Fut. Bourbon October 4-26, 2013 MEET RECAP Dst 8.5F 8.5F Winner We Miss Artie Poker Player Trainer T. Pletcher W. Catalano UNDER-THE-RADAR: Green Mask easily proved the most impressive maiden winner of the meet (video), debuting as the only sub-1:10 six-furlong juvenile of the stand. The 10/24 race proved very productive moving forward with horses like Clovelly and Speightshill exiting it to find some success while Green Mask ran 4th in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood shipping west. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Green Mask Ward Our Eyes: Visually dominant debut win; has the tools. Seal Six Harty Our Eyes: Full-brother to Colonel John will improve. We Miss Artie Pletcher Our Eyes: Subsequent BC Juv on dirt wasn't a disaster. Rankhasprivileges McPeek Our Eyes: Meet's fastest 2yo MSW route; class-tested. Reach for a Kitten Pletcher Our Eyes: Full-brother to G1 winner Admiral Kitten. Clovelly P. Oliver Our Eyes: Chased Green Mask then impressed at CD. Fantastic Vow Hickey Our Eyes: Stamina-bred/9F win for low-profile barn. General A Rod Maker Our Eyes: Like this pedigree a lot & has dirt form, too. Little Curlin Motion Our Eyes: Curlin-Hoh Buzzard offspring has potential. We Miss Artie outran the rain and his G1 rivals. Click the pic to watch his Breeders' Futurity. SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: This meet has produced seven Triple Crown racewinning alumni since 2000, and all but one of those came since the 2006 Polytrack installation (one from 2000-"05 on dirt). From the 2009 Preakness through the 2011 Preakness, Keeneland Fall Meet alumni accounted for four of seven Triple Crown race victories. Leading 2013 Champion 3-Year-old candidate Will Take Charge was a Keeneland maiden breaker during the "12 Fall Meet. Ky Derby: Animal Kingdom ("11), Street Sense ("07), Monarchos ("01). Preakness: Oxbow ("13), Shackleford ("11), Rachel Alexandra ("09). Belmont: Drosselmeyer ("10). 37 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Churchill offered not one, but two "Stars of Tomorrow" cards for the juveniles during its traditional Fall Meet. Those programs pitted the fillies, colts, dirt and turf juveniles alike and have proven quite popular. It"s been a launching pad day for the likes of superstar Rachel Alexandra. STAKES STARS: With the Iroquois moved to the new September stand in 2013, the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club stood on its own for the 2YO colts. But it"s significant that the Iroquois was a two-turn race this year for the first time. That"s the same trip/distance as the KJC and, therefore, a more telling prep. Tapiture and Laddie Boy, 1-2 in the KJC, were Iroquois alumni and their finishes in November flattered the form of their sidelined September conquerors, the Dale Romans-trained pair of Cleburne & Smart Cover. The maiden Awesome Sky was 3rd in the KJC and may be best of all after a troubled trip. Stakes KyJockeyClub October 27 – November 30, 2013 MEET RECAP Dist 8.5 Winner Tapiture Trainer Asmussen UNDER-THE-RADAR: A plethora of sprint and route MSW and ALW events at the meet offer a proving ground. Oxbow was a maiden winner at this meet a year ago before his Preakness run. Chas's Legacy is a similar horse with a world of pedigree and a promising CD Fall MSW score now in tow. Almost Famous missed the KJC with a foot bruise or else he might be a namebrand 2YO heading into winter. Dale Romans" duo of Culpit and Dublin Up are pedigree players. COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Tapiture Asmusen Our Eyes: Got better each start; among tops at FG. Laddie Boy Peery Our Eyes: Similar speed/guts as daddy War Pass. Awesome Sky Casse Our Eyes: Yet to win, but earned high marks in KJC. Chas's Legacy Byrne Our Eyes: Like him over more ballyhooed 'Famous.' Almost Famous Byrne Our Eyes: Minor setback before KJC a bump in road. Culprit Romans Our Eyes: Street Sense son way better than stakes try. Dublin Up Romans Our Eyes: Watch this one when he gets 9F at GP. Be Well Margolis Our Eyes: Middle-distance player in New Orleans. Gold Hawk Asmussen Our Eyes: Empire Maker-Caressing bloodlines, wow. Unstoppable Colby Lukas Our Eyes: 2nd-best to Gold Hawk w/ sharp pedigree. Tapiture was ready for prime time in November. Click the pic for video & more on his CD score. SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The November Fall Meet at Churchill has produced at least one eventual Triple Crown race winner five straight seasons, including Oxbow a year ago. Leading 2013 Champion 3-Year-old candidate Will Take Charge also was a CD "12 Fall alumnus. Two of the last three Preakness winners, and two of the last four Belmont champs, competed during this meet. While you may think there"s a home-court edge, note an even distribution of future success TC-wide. Ky Derby: Super Saver ("10), Street Sense-BC ("07), Monarchos ("01) Preakness: Oxbow ("13), Shackleford ("11), Rachel Alexandra ("09), Point Given-BC ("02) Belmont: Union Rags-BC ("12), Drosselmeyer ("10), Point Given-BC ("02), Sarava ("01) 38 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: Shug McGaughey"s once-a-decade Derby trip could be on fast-forward just one year after Orb, thanks to the impressive youngster Honor Code. The 1 1/8miles Remsen anchors New York"s 2YO season and provides its only major two-turn test on dirt. And it was a test Honor Code passed with distinction. But of the last 19 Remsen winners, only one (Bluegrass Cat) hit the board in any of the spring"s TC races. STAKES STARS: Nashua winner Cairo Prince (video) brought his Agame to the season-ending Remsen in his clash with favored Champagne runner-up Honor Code. After showing a deep-closing style in a pair of one-turn races, Honor Code was sent early into a dawdling pace in the 9F Remsen. Challenged and passed in mid-stretch by Cairo Prince, the two dynamos dug in and flew 11.79 the final furlong with Honor Code back in front. While the final time of 1:52.92 snoozed because of the glacial early running, note very slow Remsen winners like Thunder Gulch, Go For Gin, Bluegrass Cat, Court Vision and Coronado"s Quest all failed to impress the teletimer and turned out just fine. Stakes Nashua NY Stallion (s) Remsen November 1-December 31, 2013 MEET RECAP Dst 8F 6F 9F Winner Cairo Prince Empire Dreams Honor Code Trainer McLaughlin Albertrani McGaughey UNDER-THE-RADAR: Aqu"s late-season developers are only a maidenbreaker away in Florida from becoming trail talk. That"s what happened already on this young season with Harpoon (Pletcher), and could be next for the likes of Woelf Den (McLaughlin) and Howl (Mott). COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Honor Code McGaughey Our Eyes: Slow Remsen pace provided new wrinkle. Cairo Prince McLaughlin Our Eyes: No real weaknesses on paper; a GP factor. Wicked Strong Jerkens Our Eyes: He's our sneaky, wise-guy horse of winter. Noble Moon Gyarmati Our Eyes: Deep closer has talent; may appreciate FG. Financial Mogul Violette Our Eyes: Some win-early ability & pedigree; sustain? Matterhorn Pletcher Our Eyes: Beat next-out winner Harpoon at 1st asking. Coup de Grace Brown Our Eyes: Well-bred debuter added GP ALW since. Unknown Road Hushion (now moved to Stall) Our Eyes: Regally bred; unveiled here pre-FG 'wow.' Cairo Prince (L) & Honor Code (R) bob noses. Click pick to watch the Remsen! SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: During the 2012 Aqueduct Fall Meet, Orb and Revolutionary ran 1st-3rd in a maiden race, foreshadowing their performances in Kentucky Derby 139. Orb became the first Triple Crown race winner to have competed at this meet since Jazil. Ky Derby: Orb ("13), Preakness: none. Belmont: Jazil ("06), Empire Maker ("03). THAT'S A FACT Remsen winners have struggled, many at short prices, in recent 3YO debuts. From 2008-"13: Overanalyze (5th Gotham, 8/5). O"Prado Again (7th Indiana Derby, 13/1) To Honor And Serve (3rd, Fount. of Youth, 8/5) Buddy"s Saint (9th, Fount. of Youth, 9/5) Old Fashioned (1st, Southwest, 1/2) Court Vision (3rd, Fount.of Youth, 4/1) 39 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MEET: The final season of racing at the track of lakes and flowers provided one last hurrah for Hollywood"s signature Futurity. The 9-furlong, synthetic (Cushion Track) oval provides a short run into the first turn for 1 1/16 miles races. STAKES STARS: Shared Belief was as dominant as any horse in any 2YO stakes program in America in "1 3. His romping wins in two stakes, including the Prevue (video) and CashCall Futurity (video), stamp him as Hollendorfer"s best prospect since Event of the Year made noise on the "98 trail. The Futurity appeared very deep on paper and look for its alumni to be heard from nationally, especially runner-up Candy Boy. Stakes Hol Prevue Real Quiet Generous CashCall Fut November 7-December 22, 2013 MEET RECAP Dst 7F 8.5F 8F t 8.5F Winner Shared Belief Tamarando (vid) Global View Shared Belief Trainer Hollendorfer Hollendorfer Proctor Hollendorfer UNDER-THE-RADAR: There are some interesting turf runners here that could make some trail noise. Historically horses like Den"s Legacy, Comma to the Top, Castledale & Peace Rules have made the Hol surface change to have some say in spring races. Don"t sleep on the likes of Enterprising (Proctor), I'll Wrap It Up / Bourne Hot (O"Neill) and Kozani (Sadler). COUNTDOWN'S HORSES TO WATCH Shared Belief Hollendorfer Our Eyes: Lot of speed in damside of this pedigree. Candy Boy Sadler Our Eyes: Stable equipped with solid 3yos in '14. Kobe's Back Sadler Our Eyes: Some hype to this 1, but some talent, too. Indianapolis Baffert Our Eyes: Pedigree leans to sprints, middle-distance. Global View Proctor Our Eyes: Talented; enough dirt genes to give it a go. Midnight Hawk Baffert Our Eyes: Bred to fly and did in debut; but how far? Chitu Baffert Our Eyes: Wired debut foes; damside stamina there. Snuggley Bear Canani Our Eyes: Hard-knocker could break out in SA MSWs. Tamarando Hollendorfer Our Eyes: Cal-bred is a powerful Plan B for 'Dorf. The Admiral Baffert Our Eyes: ½ to Madcap Escapade by G-Causeway. Shared Belief ran the table in BHP's big stakes. Click pic to watch him collect the CashCall! . SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Late in the juvenile campaign on the calendar, this meet can produce a late-blooming type like Fusaichi Pegasus, who made one start in December of "99 before taking flight toward the Derby. Note that 2013"s meeting concluded racing at the venerable Southern California track. Ky Derby: Giacomo ("05), Fusaichi Pegasus ("00). Preakness: Lookin At Lucky ("10), Oxbow ("13). Belmont: Point Given ("02). THAT'S A FACT With a purse of $1,049,725, the 1983 Hollywood Futurity was the richest race staged for Thoroughbreds at the time. 40 Key Stakes Results Not Covered in Other Meets Stakes Bashford Manor (CD) Tyro (Mth) Sapling (Mth) Arl-Wash Fut. (AP) First State Dash (Del) Sunday Silence(LaD) Ky Downs Juvenile (KD) Summer (WO) Grey (WO) Jean Lafitte (DeD) El Joven (Ret) Clever Trevor (RP) Delta Jackpot (DeD) Gold Rush (GG) Springboard Mile (RP) James Lewis (Lrl) Marylander (Lrl) Gulfstream Derby (GP) MD Juvenile Champ (Lrl) Inaugural (Tam) Prairie Juvy Mile (Prm) Dr. Fager (Crc) Affirmed (Crc) Seacliff (Crc) Foolish Pleasure(Crc) In Reality (Crc) Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) Dania Beach (GP) Sugar Bowl (FG) VARIOUS Key 2-Year-Old Dist 6F 5Ft 6F 8F 5.5F 8Ft 7Ft 8Ft 8.5F 8F 8FT 7F 8.5F 8F 8F 6F 7F 8F 7F 6F 8F 6F 7F 8F 8.1F 8.5F 8F 8Ft 6F Winner Debt Ceiling Yes I"m Lucky Dunkin Bend Solitary Ranger Debt Ceiling Got Shades Boji Moon My Conquestadory (f) Ami"s Holiday Rise Up Broadway Missile Smack Smack Rise Up Exit Stage Left Louie"s Flower Jessethemarine Joint Custody TBD Joint Custody Cool Cowboy Smack Smack My Brown Eyed Guy My Brown Eyed Guy Brothersofthetime Best Plan Yet Best Plan Yet Rebranded Mr. Speaker Albano Trainer J. Robb E. Plesa S. Asmussen W. Catalano J. Robb D. Pish C. Richard M. Casse J. Carroll T. Amoss M. Lovell D. Von Hemel T. Amoss J. Hollendorfer B. Calhoun J. Rigattierri J. Robb TBD J. Robb G. Bennett D. Von Hemel K. O"Connell K. O"Connell A. Sano S. Gold S. Gold J. Evans S. McGaughey L. Jones STAKES RECAPS Rise Up lived up to his name at Delta Downs. . SINCE 2000, TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The beaten path can be overrated on the Triple Crown trail. Truth is a good horse can come from anywhere. Here"s a sampling of recent Triple Crown race winners who as 2-year-olds competed at some places you might not expect. Smarty Jones: Philadelphia Park (now Parx) Afleet Alex: Delaware Park Mine That Bird: Woodbine Animal Kingdom: Arlington Street Sense: Arlington Barbaro: Laurel Park, Delaware Park War Emblem: Arlington Point Given: Turfway Park Ruler On Ice: Monmouth Park, Delaware Park Sarava: Sandown, Lingfield, Doncaster 41 2014 Winter Meet runs January 1 - March 29 Average Daily Purses of $220,000 • Visit laurelpark.com for information 42 BC Juvenile: Jekyll & "Hide" Calvin Borel and Street Sense will remain the only Juvenile winners also to hang a "1" on Derby Day. By Jeremy Plonk The inaugural 1984 Breeders" Cup Juvenile had it right, a brilliant juvenile like Chief"s Crown who would go on to success later in life, followed by the eventual Preakness (Tank"s Prospect) and Kentucky Derby (Spend A Buck) winners. The blueprint seemed pretty obvious: Bring together the nation"s absolute best 2-year-olds from all corners for a prelude of things to come at age 3. Some 29 Breeders" Cups later, we embark on the 2014 Triple Crown trail with very little faith in the race that is supposed to be the fortune teller. Instead, the Breeders" Cup Juvenile has been a fortune burner for horseplayers and connections alike. Six of the last seven Juvy winners won"t have even made the Kentucky Derby starting gate following the recent retirement of New Year"s Day. Only 2006 Juvenile champion Street Sense has wheeled back to smell the roses at age 3. To further the point, the only other Juvenile victor to add a Triple Crown race win was " 95 Preakness success Timber Country. None has won the Belmont. As for the also-rans in the Breeders" Cup, they"ve fared a bit better, but have hardly been dominant. In the 29 Triple Crown seasons held since the establishment of the Breeders" Cup, those 87 threeyear-old classics have been won just 16 times by Juvenile alumni. Only three of the last 20 Triple Crown races held since Street Sense"s 2007 Derby score have been captured by BCJ alumni. Breeders' Cup Juvenile Alumni To Win Triple Crown Races, All-Time (1984-present) Horse Name Tank"s Prospect Spend A Buck Alysheba Bet Twice Easy Goer Sea Hero Tabasco Cat Timber Country Editor"s Note Lemon Drop Kid Point Given Afleet Alex Street Sense Mine That Bird Lookin At Lucky Union Rags BC Fin 2nd 3rd 3rd 4th 2nd 7th 3rd 1st 3rd 5th 2nd 2nd 1st 12th 2nd 2nd Br. Cup Held @ Hollywood Hollywood Santa Anita Santa Anita Churchill Gulfstream Santa Anita Churchill Belmont Churchill Churchill Lone Star Churchill Santa Anita Santa Anita Churchill TCrown Race Win "85 Preakness "85 Derby "87 Derby/Prk "87 Belmont "89 Belmont "93 Derby "94 Prk/Belmt "95 Preakness "96 Belmont "99 Belmont "01 Prk/Belmt "05 Prk/Belmt "07 Derby "09 Derby "10 Preakness "12 Belmont 43 And while it"s proven that the Juvenile claims no automatic influence on the following Spring"s Triple Crown races, it"s impact on the months of prep races leading up to the big dances can be a mixed bag as well. We need not look any further than the two most-recent seasons for just how hot or cold a particular year"s Juvenile can turn out to be. Breeders" Cup Juvenile field, none of those runners turned out to have any real star quality at age three. Their lack of performance as sophomores overall seems more a criticism on them than their surroundings. Comparing horses to horses, the 2013 Juvenile field looks much more competitive to me as 3-year-old prospects than the "12 bunch. Will they be as prevalent as what we saw two years ago? Likely not. That was an amazing cast of 2011 BC Juvenile performers who continued on even beyond the classics to win races like the Travers, Pacific Classic, Woodward, Alysheba and more. Here"s how I stack up the current crop of Breeders" Cup Juvenile holdovers as we set sail on the "14 Triple Crown trail. 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Alumni Horse Name D-Derby P-Preakness B-Belmont starts TC Major Spring Bids 2012 Prep Wins D D/B D/P D/B D D/P/B D D D Gotham Fountain of Youth + Belmont San Felipe Blue Grass Florida Derby None None None (2nd Rebel) None (2nd Withers) San Vicente Withers, Count Fleet UAE Derby Tampa Bay Derby Hansen Union Rags Creative Cause Dullahan Take Charge Indy Crusade Fort Loudon Optimizer Speightscity Drill Alpha Daddy Long Legs Prospective 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Alumni Forecast Horse Name New Year"s Day Havana Strong Mandate Bond Holder Tap It Rich Mexikoma We Miss Artie Dance With Fate Diamond Bachelor Smarty"s Echo Medal Count Rum Point Conquest Titan Jeremy Plonk"s 2014 Forecast Coulda been a contender; alas, retired. May peak early but 2nd at SA impressed. Impeccably bred; gets every chance at OP. 4 races in 1st 49 days of career; longevity? BC 2 much 2 soon; return cause for pause. Heading to Florida and could make noise. Sire all turf/synthetic; circle the Blue Grass. Better than troubled trip at BC suggests. Brilliant, win-early type; turf sprinter/miler. Poly success; working sharp at FG for dirt. Romans has success GP turf-to-Kee route. Barn not afraid to ship him; road warrior "14. Likely gets a chance at Tampa to earn way. 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Alumni Horse Name Shanghai Bobby He"s Had Enough Capo Bastone Fortify Power Broker Dynamic Sky Speak Logistics Title Contender Monument TC Bids D - Major Spring 2013 Prep Wins None (2nd Holy Bull) None None (2nd Derby Trial) None None None (2nd Sam F. Davis) None None None The 2012 Breeders" Cup Juvenile was the first to be run without Lasix, which likely had a major impact on the quality of that field – and subsequent resumes of said runners. Last autumn"s Breeders" Cup at Santa Anita also was a Lasix-free edition. Should we expect similarly insignificant prep seasons from this year"s alumni as their most recent predecessors at a non-Lasix, Santa Anita-hosted Juvenile? I would caution to let the horses do the talking and not the so-brief-to-be-relevant "trend" that you may feel is developing. Looking back on the 2012 If making an over/under on the number of Juvenile alumni in this 13-pack of contenders to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate, I"ll set the bar at 31/2. We won"t see the mind-boggling 9 from two years ago, and last year"s lone wolf in Louisville should be easily eclipsed as well. Strong Mandate and Mexikoma have that feel of horses who will be there if healthy. Then you have some synthetic specialists who could bump that number if successful at Turfway or Keeneland. When will Street Sense and Timber Country have company in the history books? We will have to wait at least another year to find out with New Year"s Day off the calendar in 2014. 44 America's Leading Trainer Takes Aim at the Triple Crown By Gary West Todd Pletcher has saddled 36 horses for the most famous of derbies, or, to put it another way, he has sent out at least one starter in 13 of the last 14 roseate runs at Churchill Downs. But between now and an uproarious throng's lachrymose rendition of "My Old Kentucky Home" more than a few keen observers and ersatz pundits will attempt to spin that fact negatively on its end, pointing out that from all those starters and all those chances the nation's leading trainer has been able to snag one victory, two seconds and two thirds. A solitary winner and 35 losers – that's the record, succinctly burnished to its base. But Pletcher's Derby record brings to mind what Mark Twain once said about lies. There are three kinds, he pointed out: "lies, damned lies, and statistics." And so here's the more illuminating and truthful side of the record: The typical Pletcher starter in the Kentucky Derby has been a 25-1 longshot. That's right: Despite his firepower and Eclipse Awards and training titles, on Derby Day he's frequently an underdog. Never has he saddled the betting favorite. Never has he had the champion 3-year-old colt in his barn, and although he twice has trained the champion juvenile, neither Shanghai Bobby nor Uncle Mo ran in the Kentucky Derby. In other words, although he has had many starters, Pletcher rarely has had the right starter on Derby Day. Many of Pletcher's clients have hired him, in effect, to get them to the Kentucky Derby. They want a ticket. And in completing that task, Pletcher has been more successful than any trainer in history except, of course, his mentor, D. Wayne Lukas, who has sent out 46 Derby starters. But the difference between getting to the Derby and winning it is very much like the difference between a tofu and a pepperoni pizza. Pletcher acknowledges the tofu. He concedes that some of his Derby starters weren't really equipped by nature for running 1 1/4 miles and that some, in retrospect, probably didn't have the talent they needed to contend seriously. Still, many of Pletcher's Derby starters have outrun their odds. Invisible Ink, for example, finished second in the 2001 Derby at 55-1. Pletcher's other Derby runner-up, Bluegrass Cat, was a 30-1 outsider in 2006. Limehouse ran fourth at 41-1, and Super Saver was 8-1 when he won in 2010. 45 Once again this season, Pletcher is approaching Triple Crown with an army of possibilities. But the way he approaches, with either stealth or pronouncement, and the paths he takes won't necessarily reveal which of the possibilities are genuine and which fanciful. Although meticulous and relentlessly attentive, Pletcher adjusts the approach to fit the horse. And so over the years he has approached the Kentucky Derby from just about every angle – arriving at Churchill Downs early or appearing suddenly and late; getting in a workout over the track or taking that final move elsewhere; using the Florida, Louisiana, or Arkansas Derby as a final prep; or perhaps using the Wood or the Blue Grass; having two preparatory races before the Derby or three; going to the track before sunrise or just after the renovation break. already in the prep races, they generally step forward in the stretch at Churchill. That's where the tofu disappears. Pletcher's stable again this year overflows with possibilities. At this point, of course, nobody, not even Pletcher, knows with total certainty how these young horses will develop and mature over the next four months, whether they'll learn their lessons well and try to define themselves in the racing tradition, and any assertion about classic abilities can be only surmise. But Pletcher seems very optimistic about the collective future of his youngsters, and it's an optimism that springs from knowledge and experience, not from hopefulness. Many of the Pletcher youngsters seem poised to step forward, and although this group might not be as flashy as some he has had in the past, they might have as much or even more potential. "The one thing that's Most conspicuous in the difficult with the Kentucky group is, of course, Havana, Derby," Pletcher said, "is the nimbus cloud that won that no matter how many Horse Horse AARONS ORIENT KING CYRUS the Champagne Stakes and times you've been there ACKERMAN ROAD LIAM'S MAP nearly won the Breeders' and no matter what MASTER LIGHTNING ALL IN BLUE Cup Juvenile. From his horses you've taken BASHART MATTERHORN outside post position, the there, you'll find that it's CHISHOLM MISCONNECT COMMISSIONER MONOPOLIZE gray colt broke alertly but different this time and for CORFU NONE LIKE NOLAN had to race wide around the this horse . . . You hope to DANZA PACIFIC first turn at Santa Anita; he have everything go right DIVINE ENERGY PECORINO relaxed down the at the right time, and yet a DUE DILIGENCE PURE SENSATION GLOBAL STRIKE REACH FOR A KITTEN backstretch, rallied wide in lot of things are out of HARPOON SOUND OF FREEDOM the second and drifted out your control . . . Last year, HARTFORD SURFING USA before finishing second. it seemed everything was HAVANA TRAIL BLAZE clicking. The horses were ICHIBAN WARRIOR VILLAGE WARRIOR INTENSE HOLIDAY WE MISS ARTIE "I thought it was very running well; we won KILLER CROSSOVER WINE TIPSTER impressive," Pletcher said major prep races (with See our "Big List" for comments on each. about the Breeders' Cup Overanalyze, effort. "He settled and Revolutionary, and relaxed down the backstretch, and that gives Verrazano). We had momentum going into the us reason to be optimistic moving forward." race; all the horses were training very well over the surface. And then it rained." Gary Stevens rode Havana that day, picking up the mount after John Velazquez was injured Track conditions can change with a in a spill in an earlier race. Unfamiliar with the cloudburst; the surface a horse worked over speedy colt, Stevens speculated later that might be entirely different from the track he perhaps the outcome could have been must race over. A horse's post position can different had he the opportunity to work compromise or even wreck his chances. In the Havana and get to know him before the race. end, though, the genuine Derby horses reveal their depth and talent. If they haven't done so Pletcher Posse 2014 46 "I was very happy with what he accomplished," Pletcher said about Havana. "He's obviously very talented and has loads of speed. The talent is certainly there. The question is: how far will he carry that talent?" Havana could return to competition in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream, Pletcher said, but the Fountain of Youth at this point seems the more likely place for him to begin his campaign. Intense Holiday, however, is aimed squarely at the Holy Bull. Fourth in both the Nashua and Remsen Stakes, Intense Holiday might get overlooked in the early excitement, but he could also be much better than many assume. He has improved steadily while having to overcome circumstances. In the Remsen, for example, he raced in sixth position early, behind a ridiculous crawling pace – 52.74 seconds for the opening half-mile and 1:17.56 for threequarters – before making his move. He ran the final three-eighths of a mile in 35.01 seconds, or nearly two lengths faster than the winner, Honor Code. But after such soporific fractions, Intense Holiday could never really threaten even though he sprinted to the wire. He finished 2 3/4 lengths back. "He's developing and filling in physically," Pletcher said about Intense Holiday, pointing out the son of Harlan's Holiday. "The more he races, the more he seems to improve." And the list of possibilities goes on. Pletcher described Surfing USA, a recent maiden winner, as a "talented colt" whose aimed at stakes competition down the road and Commissioner, who rallied at Saratoga to win over 1 1/8 miles, as one who looks capable of running "all day." The question with him, Pletcher said, is whether he'll develop the necessary speed, but "he just keeps going and going." Matterhorn is another, according to his trainer, who seems born to run longer distances. A $625,000 purchase, the son of Tapit won his one-mile debut at Aqueduct in November and will probably return to action in January. And Hartford, Pletcher said, Last Year's Pletcher Ledger 3YO Palace Malice Overanalyze Revolutionary Verrazano Revolutionary Verrazano Winning Cause Forty Tales Charming Kitten Major Win Belmont Stakes Arkansas Derby Louisiana Derby Wood Memorial Withers Tampa Bay Derby Lexington Derby Trial Kitten's Joy Palace Malice was Pletcher's 2nd Belmont winner, joining Rags to Riches (2007). referring to an unraced full-brother to the major stakes winner Dance Card, could be on everybody's list of Triple Crown prospects by the time the vanguard rolls into Kentucky. So could Danza, who finished strongly to be third in the Saratoga Special but then went to the sidelines with "baby stuff." He's back in training. They, along with several more possibilities in the barn, make for a talented group, Pletcher said, explaining that one lesson, requirement, or rule stands out with regards to the most famous of races. It's not necessarily the speediest horse that wins the Derby or even the best horse. But having saddled at least one starter in 13 of the last 14 Derbies and having been in the paddock with Thunder Gulch and many others as an assistant to D. Wayne Lukas, Pletcher said the one thing that's absolutely essential for winning the Kentucky Derby is a talented horse. And, of course, it helps to have several talented horses. - GW 47 Bodemeister California's big barn now must go forward without its big star. By Gary West What about Bob? every detail, he has handed out wisdom and witticisms as if they're Mardi Gras doubloons. He has saddled five favorites in the race: Bodemeister, Lookin At Lucky, Point Given, General Challenge (coupled with Excellent Meeting), and Indian Charlie. And Baffert's Derby resume, just for a little lagniappe, also includes three seconds and a couple thirds. But, as is often the case, what might have been is even more astounding. He was a nose away - specifically the nose of Grindstone, who got the nod over Cavonnier -- from sending out three consecutive winners in the most famous of races. He was another nose away -specifically the nose of Victory Gallop, who got the nod on Real Quiet -- from sweeping the legendary jewels. As for that, as for the sport's Holy Grail, Baffert nearly had the unique triangular trophy in his hands four times. Four times he won two-thirds of the famed Triple Crown series, with Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem and Point Given. Probably no other trainer today is more closely associated with the Kentucky Derby than Bob Baffert. With his unmistakable feygray hair and his irrepressibly casual demeanor, he's the most visible and recognizable player on the sport's most conspicuous stage, and for good reason: Over the last 26 years, no trainer has enjoyed more success in the Derby or made the whole runfor-the-roses experience seem more fun and exciting. He has won three Kentucky Derbies -- with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem -and through all these Triple Crown treks, somewhat deceptively since he's actually roiling inside with concerns over each and 48 And so whenever the things considered, was a discussion turns to tribute to his inherent possibilities and roses and talent. When he returned Horse Horse gothic jewelry, whenever in the CashCall Futurity, MAXIMUM HORSEPOWER AMERICAN PRIDE the conversation is despite a training routine BAYERN MIDNIGHT HAWK balanced on a tripod, even designed to discourage BEACH HUT MONKEY BUSINESS CAN THE MAN OH BILLY BILLY if it's early in the year and his headlong inclinations, CHITU PARTY TIME some of the eventual he became a reality show, DA BEARS PIMPERNEL players haven't announced an eleven-hundred pound HALL OF FAME POWER CRAZED themselves, Baffert figures reminder that no amount HIGHLAND BULL ROGER ROCKET HOLD EVERYTHING ROUNDUPTHELUTE prominently. This is Baffert of talent can overcome HOPPERTUNITY TAP IT RICH time. This is a time for dumb. The Equibase ICY RIDE THE ADMIRAL optimism and hopefulness. chart was, of course, INDIAN SMOKE TRUE TEN It's a time for Baffert, as the succinct in its distillation INDIANAPOLIS UNOBTANIUM KING PTOLEMY VEGAS STRIP foremost purveyor of Derby of events, pointing out MAGIC CASH WYNHURST dreams, to begin looking that Tap It Rich "broke down the road to Kentucky slowly and awkwardly," See our "Big List" for comments on each. and maybe even to horse and then became "rank," NEW YEAR'S DAY retired Dec. 26. racing's Arcadia. Yes, this is and then "swerved five Baffert time (Pletcher time, too) and, of course, wide." Nothing more needed to be said. the white-haired sage from Nogales, Ariz., Eliminated from any chance, he was taken in again has many potential Derby horses in his hand. barn – even in the wake of the premature retirement of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Depending on how you look at things, Tap It New Year's Day on Dec. 26. Rich is either a lunatic or a wild card. He has the talent to be almost anything, even a Kentucky Derby winner, if he wants to be a "I think I have a strong group," Baffert said. racehorse, and that "if," by the way, is large "They're still finding their way right now, but they're going to be good. I hope we get there with all of them. Right now, we're dreaming in Technicolor; in four months, we'll start dreaming in black and white." Baffert's Band 2014 The major loss of the BC Juvenile winner notwithstanding, Baffert still has many prospects in his barn, intriguing possibilities such as Roundupthelute, Indianapolis, The Admiral, Midnight Hawk, Chitu and Icy Ride. Bayern, an unraced son of Offlee Wild, has turned heads during his morning preparations, and he soon could join the Baffert Bunch. And then, of course, there's Tap It Rich. He looked like a potential superstar when, after a tardy break, he rallied from far back on a speed biased surface to win his debut at Santa Anita. But then, well, he had a Dennis Rodman moment in the Breeders' Cup, where he was rank and recalcitrant early, refusing to be rated; still, he finished fifth, only about three lengths behind his stablemate, which, all 49 enough to be seen from outer space. But instead of a racehorse, he might want to be, well, a basketball player or a maverick diplomat. He could make a career of playing hoops with Kim Jong-un. "We'll back off and start over," Baffert said about Tap It Rich. "He'll be all right. I still have four months." Beyond the enigmatic but talented Tap It Rich, Baffert has several horses poised and ready, it would seem, to prove themselves. The Admiral, for example, rallied wide but strongly to be third in his debut, a fast race where he galloped out beyond the winner; then the son of Giant's Causeway who's a halfbrother to Madcap Escapade finished second in his first start around two turns. He's improving. And Indianapolis finished full of run and energy, rallying from seventh, with a final quarter-mile in 24.60 seconds, to win his debut. The son of Medaglia d'Oro galloped out strongly, his eagerness coruscating. He, too, is poised to step forward. Midnight Hawk is another who sparkles with potential. He won his recent debut impressively, breaking slowly, rushing up between horses to grab the lead, but then losing it while relaxing into a rhythm, and then finishing powerfully to draw clear by more than six lengths. Who knows how good he could be? -- well, Baffert knows, or has a feel for the potential that's burgeoning in front of him, and Midnight Hawk could be a good one, the trainer said. The colt's ownership group includes Chicago Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville and former Bears and Vikings coach Mike Tice. Roundupthelute trains like a good horse, too, Baffert said, and Icy Ride will love more distance. Chitu is fast, very fast. And so it goes. In his stable, youthful talent abounds: They're capable and fast, and they're learning and improving, these young horses, all of them aimed at the first Saturday in May and Churchill Downs, under the direction of the Derby impresario. It's Baffert time. Where has the magic gone? Baffert '97-'02 Silver Charm Silver Charm Real Quiet Real Quiet Point Given Point Given War Emblem War Emblem T-Crown Wins '97 Derby '97 Preakness '98 Derby '98 Preakness '01 Preakness '01 Belmont '02 Derby '02 Preakness From 1997-2002, Bob Baffert trained the winners of 8 of the 18 Triple Crown races offered. Baffert '03-'13 Lookin At Lucky T-Crown Wins '10 Preakness Since War Emblem's foiled bid at Belmont in '02, Baffert has won 1 of the last 33 Triple Crown races. Real Quiet was 1 of 4 Baffert trainees to win two-thirds of the Triple Crown between 1997-2002. 50 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS 51 OUR LIST OF 400 + HORSES TO WATCH HONOR CODE CLEBURNE WE MISS ARTIE "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS Countdown's annual list of key 3-year-olds is not meant to be a potential list of Triple Crown race winners. It's a scouting report of reputable runners that helps horseplayers match up maiden, allowance and stakes horses throughout the season by lending some insight to many of the company lines you will see in the past performances. Use this list to familiarize yourself with whom a horse has competed against, for a sense of starting point in researching a potential future book play, and more. Please note fillies are not scouted in Countdown until nominated to the Triple Crown and intentions declared to compete. Contender Name AARONS ORIENT ACES N JACKS ACKERMAN ROAD ACTIVE AFORTABLE ALAMO ALBANO ALBERTS HOPE ALEX INC ALL CASH ALL FOR US ALL IN BLUE ALMOST FAMOUS ALPHA AND OMEGA ALPINE LUCK ALSONO AMERICAN PRIDE AMHERST STREET AMIS HOLIDAY ANGRY MOON AOTEAROA ARCTIC SLOPE ARTEMPUS ASLAN ASSERTING BEAR AWESOME SKY BARDSTOWN BASE CASE SCENARIO BASHART BAYERN Contender's Sire Orientate Jet Phone Unbridled's Song Cowboy Cal Fort Prado War Front Istan Run Away and Hide Afleet Alex English Channel Tiz Wonderful More Than Ready Unbridled's Song Omega Code Lucky J.H. Limehouse Closing Argument Luttikus Harlan's Holiday Langfuhr Good Journey Van Nistelrooy Unbridled's Song A.P. Indy Bear's Kid Sky Mesa Stormy Atlantic Pioneerof The Nile War Front Offlee Wild Trainer Name Pletcher Dodwell Pletcher Cho Block R. Mandella L. Jones Puype Reid Lukas Proctor Pletcher Byrne Craddock Harrington Evans Baffert Conteras J. Carroll Kenneally Powell McPeek Sano Albertrani R. Baker Casse Hess Stall Pletcher Baffert Countdown to the Crown Comments Spa MSW sprinter added RP stakes for Asmussen pre-barn move; distance doubts post-GP Derby. Texas-bred May 7 foal debuted with romping 6F win at Retama in November before stakes failure. Odds-on when 2nd in his Bel Oct. debut and ran well after setting the pace going a tricky 6 1/2F. ½ bro to Albert the Great didn't make it to races at 2, but was Dmr/CashCall Fut nom for crafty barn. Debut turf mile winner at AP moved too soon in Kee Poly ALW, may be better than that -- at GP now. Sept/Oct works before going to sidelines; dam 1/2 sister to G1 sprinter Pomeroy. ½ bro to Mark Valeski has shown courage; can dictate going a distance after solid Sugar Bowl score. Win-early 2YO captured Best Pal at Dmr; put away after summer when losing weight, aimed for SA. Damside slants sprint, but this one improved in each start at 2, winning 2nd try at Parx after layoff. Unable to connect in 2YO MSWs, but 4th in Bourbon on turf before BCJT non-factor; no turf at OP. Huge move turf route maiden breaker at SA in Sept; dam full-sis to Malibu Moon; off worktab in Oct. Romping summer Bel debut winner with some turf route stamina; sidelined since Sar stakes fizz. Easily wired CD fall route ALW, but missed KJC stakes with foot bruise; mama Wild Gams sprinted. Sharp OK-bred sprinter may get a chance against open company at OP after Springboard Mile fade. Win-early Cal-bred had summer edge at BHP but distances, competition caught up to him by fall. Zia Park stakes-winning sprinter ran well in KY MSWs prior; solid local for Sunland program. Absent since sprint runner-up at Dmr at odds-on; win-early pedigree awaits return. Top WV-bred won Tri-State Futurity with wins between 4.5-7F to date; Wild Rush mare. Won Grey routing on WO Poly in 2nd start, but failed as fav in next 2 stakes. Came off layoff to win CD fall MSW sprint before troubled trip in ALW bid; pedigree says sprinter. Inconsistent turf stakes winner, but has talent to go a distance; pedigree iffy for dirt, however. Impressed w/ determined CD MSW win in dirt debut, but failed to live up to stakes expectations. Improving Crc route winner in Sept, but AWOL since; 2nd dam Japanese great Seeking the Pearl. Distant 2nd at Spa to King Cyrus; pedigree boasts stamina if/when he returns. 9F stakes winner on WO Poly; 1/2 brother to 2x Canadian turf champ mare Inish Glora. Pure Oxley genes out of Monarchos mare; talented maiden had rugged trip in G2 Ky Jockey Club. Missing since Dmr debut 2nd at shorter distance than best; dam 1/2 to G1 winning turf router Ciro. Impressed w/ wide burst in turf win; bred for dirt & should get a chance if/when he returns. Strong early turf 2YO has some damside distance concerns, but wide trip in BCJ Turf excusable. From strong female family, didn't make work tab til Oct; big a.m. moves at SA in Dec for debut. 52 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS BAY OF PLENTY BAYOU ST JOHN BAYVIEW DRIVE BE WELL BEACH HUT BELLY OF THE WHALE BEST PLAN YET BETTER BET BIG BAZINGA BIGGER PICTURE BIG MEDICINE MAN BIG SUGAR SODA BIRD NOW BISQUE BOBBY'S KITTEN BOJI MOON BOLITA BOYZ BON ACCORD BOND HOLDER BOURBON SENSE BOURBONIZE BOURNE HOT BRACIGLIANO BRANDO THE BIRDMAN BREITLING FLYER BRO RODRIGEAUX BROTHER SOLDIER BROTHER STACHYS BROTHERSOFTHETIME BUCK MAGIC BUMP START BURNING WARRIOR C. ZEE CAIRO PRINCE CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN THE MAN CANDIP CANDIR CANDY BOY CANDY DANDY CAN'THELPBELIEVING (Ire) 53 Medaglia d'Oro Bernstein It's No Joke Harlan's Holiday First Defence Red Giant Hear No Evil Southern Image Bluegrass Cat Badge of Silver Indian Charlie Ready's Image Tiznow Drinkwiththedevil Kitten's Joy Cactus Ridge Act of Duty Showing Up Mineshaft Street Sense Tiz Wonderful Latent Heat Tale of the Cat Tribal Rule Ghostzapper Tale of the Cat Brother Derek Officer Bob And John Broken Vow Jump Start A.P. Warrior Elusive Bluff Pioneerof The Nile Lucky Pulpit Into Mischief Candy Ride Candy Ride Candy Ride Candy Ride Duke of Marmalade Pioneerof The Nile Captain Rio McLaughlin Stidham Mullins Margolis Baffert Clement Gold Harrington Vassilieva Maker Harty Asmussen Zito Amoss Brown Richard W. White Sano O'Neill Brown Gorder O'Neill Romans Belvoir Azpurua Lukas Dollase Biehler Sano Colebrook Gorder Dunn Gold McLaughlin Sherman Baffert Calhoun Shirreffs Sadler Asmussen Motion Connelly Mettee Better-than-looks debut at GP going 6F w/ pedigree that wants much farther; big-time female family. Won FG debut going away in route that came off grass; outrun in tougher Dec. ALW bid. Decent 4th vs. good company at SA in only fall start; may enjoy stretching out. Well-meant CD fall sprint MSW winner followed w/ strong 2nd in Sugar Bowl; damsire Touch Gold. 6F winner at SA fall never got going in troubled bid in Real Quiet around 2 turns or ALW bid since. Turf-bred Spa debut winner closed nicely behind wire-job Here's Johnny in Kee Poly route. Top FL-bred at Crc, smashed 2-turn In Reality rivals but dismal in GP Derby; mama a road warrior. 11-start 2YO season included route stakes win vs. Cal-breds, but no factor vs. open in Real Quiet. Grey runner-up on Poly didn't fire in Delta Jackpot on dirt; turfy pedigree on the damside. Well-backed Ramsey runner could be quality TP winter stakes performer; ½ to decent Gung Ho. Should improve with distance -- look for breakout in dirt route; 1/2 to $700k stakes router Red Lead. Precocious early 2YO stakes performer didn't fire late in Futurity at Bel; re-grouping at FG winter. Granddam Bird Town won KY Oaks & dad loved it long; AWOL since pair of Saratoga summer 4ths. FG ALW sprint win solidified sprinter's class from minor stakes successes; good Indy-bred. Most impressive 2YO on turf we saw in '13; strong turf route pedigree both sides – goes Kee route? Maybe fastest IA-bred ever, really turned heads at KD; but Kee and RP tries show distance limits. Floridian got better with each start, winning GP sprint stakes on dirt in Dec.; likely a sprinter. Pedigree says BC Juvy Turf 4th may handle dirt; distances are within his scope. G1 winner reached top level in FrontRunner at SA; 4th in BC Juvy & CashCall Futurity; dangerous. Beautifully-bred runner improved when 3rd behind 2 nice prospects at Bel; should love 2 turns. 7F debut winner at CD in late November; trained at Turfway through year's end. Nibbler broke out with Dec MSW win on BHP lawn; solid pace influence has look of sneaky player. Showed no sprint speed in KY at 2, but mama was an OP lover. Distance & Hot Springs may help. 2-time winner late in season, including 12/28 7F starter; may fit with open company going long. Seasoned Florida stakes performer out of Housebuster mare; likely best to stay short. Versatile maiden short/long at Sar, Kee, CD but hasn't put it together yet; dam sprinted for Baffert. Well-tested in stakes; faded to mid-pack in CashCall after fast pace; stamina questions. 1/2 to Midwestern stakes route player Stachys; solid closing debut at RP sets up for Oaklawn. Game winner of 2-turn Seacliff Stakes at Calder; out since September and may be win-early type. Ky Jockey Club 4th as a maiden; mama Gatorette had some talent in short career; prepping in FL. Dominant Indy debut summer winner handled class test at CD with nice 3rd routing despite wide trip. LA-bred stakes winning sprinter away since being outrun in Jean Lafitte vs. open company. Returned from 3-month break to handily win GP MSW in mid-Dec; mama a nice win-early sprinter. Nashua winner left it all on the table in heart-breaking Remsen 2nd; obvious quality & bred for routes. Very good Cal-bred sprinter, but open company and class questions are legitimate. Maybe Baffert's sleeper; G1-tested & clearly talented, 2nd dam amazing producer Blush With Pride. Rocket-fast RP dash debut win in Sept before sidelined; female family loaded with grass brilliance. Half-bro to Al Khali made Belmont work tab in Sept before heading back west; training for SA debut. Player had breakout 4th start, blowing away BHP route; G1 CashCall 2nd after premature move. Away since 5th in Sar Spec at even-money; could have been exposed, but a pedigree to follow. Long-winded turfer 2nd in US debut at Kee going 9F on grass; GP turf next step in progression. Debuted an upset winner at Ellis late summer and not seen since; had some win-early pedigree. Irish maiden breaker was competitive in US stakes on turf/Poly; away since Pilgrim in Oct. CAPTAINOF THE NILE CAPTAIN'S AFFAIR "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS CASIGUAPO CAUTIOUS GIANT CAVU CEE 'N O CELTIC MOON CHARGE NOW CHART TOPPER CHAS'S LEGACY CHELIOS CHERUBIM CHIEF POWER CHISHOLM CHITU CHOMSKY CINMARS DANCE CJ'S AWESOME CLASSIC GIACNROLL CLASSIC SENSE CLEARDOFALLCHARGES CLEBURNE CLOVELLY COASTLINE COMMANDING CURVE COMMANDMENT COMMISSIONER CONDO CLOSING CONSTITUTION CONQUEST TITAN CONQUEST TWO STEP COOL COWBOY COOL SAMURAI CORFU COTEAU ROUGE COUP DE GRACE COUSIN STEPHEN CRAFTSMAN CULPRIT DA BEARS DANCE WITH FATE DANZA D'CAJUN CAT DEBT CEILING DECLAN'S FAST CAT Sightseeing Giant's Causeway Zensational Silver Train Denis of Cork Tiznow Leroidesanimaux Bernardini Distorted Humor Henny Hughes Stevie Wonderboy Congrats Henny Hughes Distorted Humor Cindago Awesome Again Giacomo Street Sense Dixie Union Dixie Union Pleasantly Perfect Speightstown Master Command Sky Mesa A.P. Indy Offlee Wild Tapit Birdstone Two Step Salsa Kodiak Kowboy First Samurai Malibu Moon Tale of the Cat Tapit Proud Citizen Mastercraftsman Street Sense Tiznow Two Step Salsa Street Boss D'Wildcat Discreet Cat Bluegrass Cat Morales Gaines McLaughlin Romans Miller Mott Lynch Byrne Proctor Callaghan Plesa Pletcher Baffert Hennig Kruljac McPeek Guerrero Brown Sadler Romans P. Oliver Casse Stewart Casse Pletcher M. Robertson Pletcher Casse Casse Bennett Shirreffs Pletcher P. Devereaux Brown Brown Callaghan Romans Baffert Eurton Pletcher Asmussen Robb Asmussen Road warrior handled NYRA/Delta trips very well; should be early season danger at GP in stakes 3rd in Dmr route MSW to G1 winners New Year's Day, Bond Holder; out since dull Sept. follow-up. 2nd to sharp Pletcher dasher in debut, then followed with win of his own 2nd time at Aqu 12/14. Arl-Wash Futurity 3rd didn't move forward in pair of CD starts; Smart Strike damsire, maybe Poly? Best Pal runner-up absent since Dmr Futurity went awry; young sire 3rd in '08 Derby, 2nd Belmont. ½ bro to Derby champ Super Saver working at Payson this winter toward GP debut. Crushed MSW turf sprint at GP by 8 lengths; showed speed/stopped on dirt at Churchill. Run-all-day pedigree and improved in each 2YO start with distance; green, yet lots to like. Sharp late Dec. debut 2nd for barn that doesn't push the young ones; love this pedigree profile. Beat a ballyhooed group of SA MSW runners 12/28 at 20-1; improving sprinter at the least. Mth debut winner no match for 1/9 winner at GP in return from break; best lick likely sprinting. Hot firster at Spa showed speed before fading badly; if/when he returns, worth a look going long. Very sharp debut winner added ALW win in Dec; damside pedigree may embrace longer distances. Maiden nibbler hasn't lived up to pedigree yet; needs to break through at Gulfstream soon. Dug in vs. CA-breds, improving around 2 turns; added 4th in Golden State Juvenile. Sharp fall worker nom'd to all big Dec stakes, but yet to debut; mama placed in Golden Rod, Regret. Rallying 3rd in 7F Marylander at Lrl after back-to-back Parx sprint wins; gets winter shot at Aqu. Useful turf debut at Aqu, bred to love dirt but very flat in 9F dirt MSW after; should get better. Late bloomer hit BHP workout tab in Nov with some promise; sports a win-early pedigree. Bucked shin prior to BC Juvy sidelined Iroquois winner; dam equaled Lrl 1-1/16M turf record. Attended fast 1-turn mile pace in CD and graduated well after chasing rapid Green Mask at Kee. Well-backed & sharp in KY around 1 turn; stumbling start and no-show in Delta Jackpot; 2-turns? Improving CD MSW winner made for 2 turns; follow-up to Golden Soul for barn perhaps at FG. Pair of 2nds at CD, GP to open career showing some promise; mama a good sprinter for 'Dorf. Rare 9F Sar MSW win tough to gauge; but he's bred to be a star and is in the right hands; beware. Delaware MSW winner in 2nd start could get shot to prove mettle at OP if/when returns from layoff. Fast-working $400k colt set for Florida debut; dam ½ to G1 Forego winner Emcee – distance? Bounced out of BJ Juvenile flop to win pretty deep CD ALW mile on dirt; could factor on Tampa path. Early 2YO away since runner-up in WO's Colin in July; debuted winner on CD dirt in June. Fast Chicagoan at 2 carried form to Florida; fleet pedigree top and bottom, likely sprinter. 2nd start 1M MSW win at SA after he closed for 2nd behind Wicked Strong in NY; ½ to Madeo. Sar Special winner rumored to be good thing from day 1; now confirmed a precocious sprint-type. LA-bred powerfully circled FG ALW & won going away before 2nd in stakes; mama 3rd Fleur de Lis. GP mile dirt ALW winner late Dec followed up smart debut Aqu score; out of talented mare; player. 9F Aqu MSW win in Nov off 2 month layoff by 7 vs. modest bunch; mama was a stakes sprinter. Euro import disappointed when 5th in Dec's Eddie Logan on SA lawn with much prior fanfare. 2 good efforts on CD main before no-show in Ky Jockey Club; adore pedigree - one to watch. Missed break in belated sprint rally debut at SA in Sept; dam 1/2 to sprint champ Squirtle Squirt. Runner-up G1 Dmr Futurity sprinting on Poly/G1 Frontrunner routing on dirt; rough trip BC. Outsprinted by wild fractions in Sar Special, but leveled off & closed nicely; returned to tab in Dec. Early summer sharpie at CD returned from sidelines at FG w/ Sugar Bowl 3rd; damside has stamina. Dynamo early won stakes at Pim, Del & Bashford Manor at CD before falling apart in the fall. Decent sprint 4th at CD in fall meet after similar even try at Delta in debut; off tab since, FG? 54 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS DEL RIO HARBOR DIAMOND BACHELOR DIVINE ENERGY DIVINE VIEW DOBRA HISTORIA DONEGAL'S SONG DOUBLE WHAMMY DOWNEY GAP DUBLIN UP DUE DILIGENCE DUNKIN BEND DYNAMIC IMPACT EAST HALL EDDIE'S TURN EIRIGH ELECTRIC EDDIE ELEVATED ELUSIVE BLUEBOY EMPIRE DREAMS ENDOWMENT MANAGER ENTERPRISING EX PIRATE EXIT STAGE LEFT EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER FANTASTIC VOW FINAL STEP FINANCIAL MOGUL FIRE STARTER FIRST BID FLAT JACK FOREVER JUANITO FOURTH AND LONG FREE MUGATU FULL METAL GAMBLER'S GHOST GAREN GENERAL A ROD GENERAL JACK GIANCARLO GIOVANNI BOLDINI GIVE NO QUARTER GLACKEN TOO GLOBAL STRIKE Harbor the Gold War Front Tapit Divine Park Unbridled's Song Unbridled's Song Arch Bernardini Unbridled's Song War Front Dunkirk Tiznow Graeme Hall McCann's Mojave More Than Ready Square Eddie Jump Start Bluegrass Cat Patriot Act Master Command Elusive Quality Malibu Moon Noonmark Stroll Broken Vow In Summation Street Boss Tapit Street Sense Flatter Badge of Silver Grand Slam Utopia Fort Prado Ghostzapper Street Cry Roman Ruler Giant's Causeway Tapit War Front Tiz Wonderful Smoke Glacken Smart Strike Harwood Biancone Pletcher L. Jones Mott Romans McLaughlin Casse Romans Pletcher Asmussen Casse Kaplan Truman Romans B. Cecil Schoenthal Nicks Albertrani Pompay Proctor Proctor Hollendorfer Trombetta Hickey Miller Violette Hobby Brown Albertrani V. Garcia Madrigal Terranova Block Kenneally Miller Maker Maker Loza Jr. O'Brien Motion Calhoun Pletcher King of northwest won 3 stakes at Emerald, including Gottstein Futurity; but away since Sept. Exceptionally quick 2YO on multiple surfaces must learn to rate to be effective; possesses talent. Failed twice at short odds, but could benefit from Kee Poly route try; grandson of Serena's Song. Overcame trouble to impress in CD MSW sprint debut win; sharp looker ran flat in Springboard Mile. Inconsistent at 2 with flashes of ability before 7th in Ky Jockey Club; out of Miss Lodi. 1/2 to IL Derby winner Cowtown Cat; worked toward debut in Oct/Nov at CD, but didn't make races. Took a ton of money in his Oct debut on turf but bred for dirt and might be worth remembering. Regally bred son of turf ace Pico Teneriffe took a while to get going, but busted out at WO in Oct. Debuted 6th at CD in Nov chasing 7F pace; immaculate female family - 3rd dam Weekend Surprise. Private buy after crushing Spa debut turf win; out since 4th in Pilgrim on turf; win-early female family. Snappy Sar MSW & Sapling winner failed to deliver twice late season at RP; win-early type? Encouraging colt, but didn't move forward at CD fall; black-type laden female family; now at OP. Picked up steam over long 2YO haul and his 3rd in GP Derby Jan. 1 wasn't bad; durable-type. Looped field of CA-breds at SA in Oct, won going away in only start; worth following if/when returns. Modest improvement in KY MSW ranks late season; Ontario-bred may like turf/Poly best. Maiden was runner-up in Real Quiet & Golden State Juv before CashCall 5th; drop & re-raise time. Opened with pair of wins at Parx but found stakes ranks tougher chore; might like Lrl distance races. Speedy over-achiever went from MCL to stakes winner in 3 starts taking Calder sprint in Nov. NY-bred handled all 3 NYRA surfaces sprinting, including NYSS at 6F; 2nd dam Arrested Dreams. Bred to route, constant hard-knocker in 2YO MSWs may break out when he gets some distance. Impressive stakes-winning turfer with sharp turn of foot; female family includes Stravinsky. Teased in AP MSW events; re-aimed at Tam & just missed turf mile; sire had Orb last year. NJ-bred won 1M Gold Rush at GG on Dec. 7 for 2nd stakes win in as many career attempts. Strong Parx maiden breaker won Rickles overnight at Aqu; earned Big A winter prep shot. Out of superb turf mare Fantastic Shirl, impressed with rare debut route win on Kee Poly; now in FL. Likely a sprinter, but caught the eye in fleet SA 2nd-start dash win; barn coming of trail age lately. Solid efforts in Nashua/Futurity in NY; mama was develop-early type (2nd in Landaluce); route? Inched forward a bit in his 2nd start, but went haywire at CD fall and sent to Fair Hill to re-boot. Ran like short horse in fall debut, then promising mid-move at GP in Dec; warrants watching. Improved in his second start when chasing a fast sprinter home for 2nd and is bred to go long. Solid MSW winner at Dmr, but hasn't resurfaced since. Could enjoy middle distances. Penn debuter is fast & ran solid Lrl ALW; mama set Dmr 6.5F track record; sharp female family. NY-bred stakes winner won twice at Spa; pedigree leans to sprints and may be win-early type. 9F Kee turf route MSW winner on front end; pedigree leans toward grass in New Orleans perhaps. Followed rank debut behind Divine View w/ dominant, quick GP MSW sprint score in; sprint damside. Troubled debut trip late Dec. in tough heat where he took a decent amount of action. Gulfstream Derby winner Jan. 1 with slick speed-top/stamina-bottom pedigree; developing nicely. Mama J'Ray could really route on turf; dueled ridiculously fast in G1 Breeders Futurity at Kee. Impressive 2nd start winner in Calder MSW sprint in Dec; damside pedigree maybe miler. WV-bred moved well for 2nd-place finish in BC Juv Turf; won 2 of 3 in Ireland prior to U.S. start. 22-length MSW route winner at PID has had some issues since; 1/2 to Del Oaks 3rd-place finisher. Debut 2nd behind sensational FG winner Unknown Road; pedigree says sprint both sides. Strong Argentine pedigree for Dec turf debuter who ran solid 3rd to a sneaky-good winner. 55 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS GLOBAL VIEW GO BLACK TIE GO FIRST GO GREELEY GOLD HAWK GONE AS WIND GOT SHADES GRAND ARRIVAL GREAT WHITE EAGLE GREEN MASK GROUPTHINK GUGGENHEIM GUNS LOADED HALL OF FAME HARPOON HARTFORD HAVANA HEART TO HEART HERE'S JOHNNY HE'S GOT TALENT HESINFRONT HI FASHIONED HIGH ROLL HIGHLAND BULL HIRSCHY HOLD EVERYTHING HOLLYWOOD TALENT HOME RUN KITTEN HONESTO HONOR CODE HONORABLE JUDGE HOPPERTUNITY HOWL HURRICANE RAY HY KODIAC WARRIOR HYE IM JACK I EARNED IT BABY IAN STREET ICHIBAN WARRIOR ICY RIDE IDE BE COOL I'LL WRAP IT UP I'MBETTERTHANGOOD Galileo Borrego Kafwain Horse Greeley Empire Maker Smart Strike Pollard's Vision Harlan's Holiday Elusive Quality Mizzen Mast Majestic Warrior Smart Strike D'Wildcat Tapit Tapit Tapit Dunkirk English Channel Colonel John Talent Search War Front Old Fashioned Roman Ruler Empire Maker Papa Clem Corinthian Talent Search Kitten's Joy Smart Strike A.P. Indy Afleet Alex Any Given Saturday Arch Tiznow Kodiak Kowboy Cowboy Cal Hard Spun Street Boss First Samurai Candy Ride Ide Broken Vow Exchange Rate Proctor Dollase Pedersen Ross Asmussen Loza Jr. Pish Zito O'Brien Ward Brown Shirreffs Autry Baffert Pletcher Pletcher Pletcher Stidham Ward Ward Romans Harrington DiVito Baffert Hollendorfer Baffert Ward Hofmans Mandella McGaughey Reid Baffert Mott Zito Bezara O'Neill Gaines Sadler Pletcher Baffert Dunn O'Neill McPeek G3 Generous winner at turf mile bred to run much farther; dam is 1/2 to solid 3YO AP Warrior. Was 3rd in two strong maiden races and could improve with more relaxed fractions going long. Cal-bred MSW winner at Dmr disappointed on dirt in Fresno route stakes follow-up vs. open foes. WO terror won Colin, Vandal, Simcoe in succession before Grey 3rd; genes leans middle distance. Son of Caressing a big-time player; FG ALW winner now 2-2; tossed rider in warm-ups pre-debut. Good 3rd in GP ALW in mid-Dec; blew start of GP Derby and wasted energy in pursuit; another try. 2X stakes winner on LaD turf; decent 5th in BC JT; gets dirt shot at FG/OP & pedigree fine for it. Showed polish at Sar, re-rallying & winning for fun; stakes bids after all were disappointments. Irish runner has some pedigree for US dirt and could be a UAE Derby prepper to follow. Rousing Kee debut sprint winner has damside turf route pedigree; disappointing 4th in Real Quiet. Hard-knocking maiden graduated in Big A Dec sprint vs NY-breds earning good figure. Moss home-bred drilled in NY/CA toward winter debut; mama 2X winner of Maddy on downhill turf. Dmr debut sprint winner w/ stakes experience; genes/style project him out to be sprinter. Modest works for Baffert at BHP toward winter debut; 2nd dam won Diana routing on turf. 1/2 to speedy Cuvee & Will He Shine; well-bet nibbles in NY before GP bust-out; dash future. $700k buy kin to G1 winner Dance Card & Risen Star-placed Tempted to Tapit; training in Fla. Sensational BC effort from tough draw; Champagne win flattered by Remsen; awaiting work return. Shopped around Poly races at WO and Kee for sharp barn; dirt/turf try at FG, maybe Queen's Plate? Well-traveled and seasoned sprinter/router at 2; pedigree leans heavily to win-early types, though. May debut winner at CD, but has been out since unplaced in Colonial summer stakes. Determined 9F turf MSW winner at CD fall meet before Dania Beach dud; dam 1/2 to Tapitsfly. Barretts Juvenile champ clearly 2nd best to Can the Man in SA open sprint stakes in Oct; FL-bred. Arl-Wash Futurity 5th returned at GP in Dec with dull effort; 1/2 to sprinter Muppet Man. Steady drills at BHP in late fall toward debut; mama won 9F turf stakes at WO; stamina genes. Top NoCal fair 2YO won Cavonnier, 2nd in Palmer going long on Fresno dirt; out since Oct. Chased strong Sadler MSW winners in SA and BHP routes in fall; knocking on the door. Long 2YO season around country picking off sprints and dash stakes bids; routes not in the radar. Finished with interest in BHP turf sprint; likely to enjoy route of ground, on any surface. Regally-bred & works improving late winter toward debut; 2nd dam Honest Lady, 3rd dam Toussaad. Most impressive 2YO we saw in '13; brilliant at times, gutsy others; only ? is his mama turf sprinted. Sharp trainer took 2X Parx winner on road for class test at 2; could make noise at Aqu winter or GP. May foal working strongly toward debut at SA; good stamina on damside of interesting pedigree. Huge improvement around 2 turns behind a nice Pletcher winner in Nov; has some intrigue. ½ bro to G1 winner Appealing Zophie set for Fla debut after fast works; like this pedigree a bunch. On the board in 4 of 5 and rallied well for 2nd in good allowance at GP; some stamina on damside. Twice showed speed and tired a bit to be 4th in BHP attempts; bred to like Polytrack. Rallied well for Dmr victory; away since stakes 2nd at BSR; will be tough pacesetter going long. Well-backed debut fav when 4th in BHP fall sprint behind Indianapolis; damside stamina for Mosses. Runner-up in Street Sense at CD has damside pedigree to give 2 turns a whirl for owner Ramsey. Dead on board and slow to gather in BHP fall sprint debut; pedigree/performance requires route. Bashed state-breds in LA Champions Juv.; big speed figs, may be worthy of visit to open company. Son of sprinter Sindy With An S; battled Enterprising in tough turf MSW before easy BHP 2-turn win. Deceivingly solid debut rally after bad start in STOUT fall MSW at CD; working in FL, may fit at OP. 56 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS IN TROUBLE INDEXICAL INDIAN BRUT INDIAN SMOKE INDIANAPOLIS INNOVATION ECONOMY INTENSE HOLIDAY INTERCHANGE IRISH YOU WELL IRONICUS IT'S A BANG JEDI MIND TRICK JESSE JAMES JESSETHEMARINE JOINT CUSTODY JOSE SEA VIEW JUBA KARMA KING KENDALL'S BOY KIDS RULE KILLER CROSSOVER KING CYRUS KING PTOLEMY KNOCK EM FLAT KOBE'S BACK KOZANI KRISTO LADDIE BOY LAWMAKER LEGEND FOREVER LIAM'S MAP LIFE IS A JOY LITTLE BAKER LITTLE CURLIN LONG ON VALUE LONG STATION LONG WATER LOOK QUICKLY LOUD CAT LOUIE'S FLOWER LOUISIANA FLYBOY LUCA LUCKY VIEWS Tiz Wonderful Latent Heat Indian Charlie Zensational Medaglia d'Oro Dynaformer Harlan's Holiday Fairbanks Broken Vow Distorted Humor Great Notion Don'tsellmeshort Zensational With Distinction Outflanker Badge of Silver Tapit Pure Prize Sky Mesa Lemon Drop Kid Indian Charlie Bellamy Road Pioneerof The Nile Flatter Flatter Exchange Rate Distorted Humor War Pass Malibu Moon Street Boss Unbridled's Song Globalize Forestry Curlin Value Plus Smoke Glacken Quality Road Run Away and Hide Discreet Cat Flower Alley Fusaichi Pegagsus Tribal Rule Lucky Pulpit T. Dutrow B. Cecil Tagg Baffert Baffert Brown Pletcher Clark Catalano McGaughey Barr Sadler Asmussen Rigattieri Robb R. Baker J. Jerkens Dollase Amoss Stidham Pletcher Pletcher Baffert Mullins Sadler Sadler Sadler Peery Brown Richard Pletcher Hollendorfer Romans Motion Mott McPeek McLaughlin Morey T. Dutrow Calhoun Brown Burnison Machowsky Knee-chip removed in Oct for G2 Futurity winner who settled nicely & overpowered foes in 2 tries. Scored over New Year's Day in rapid Dmr MSW; unplaced since, but talent to move to higher level. Tough post in Sept debut at Bel, but made up a bit of ground for barn that never cranks them early. Pure Baffert sprint legacy (Zensational-Indian Blessing); troubled start in SA Dec debut. Broke maiden w/ terrific late run; well-handled, should be heard from later; fast damside pedigree. Basically looped field in hand from WAY back in Oct turf debut at Bel; deserves dirt chance in Fla. Sneaky good 4th in the GII Remsen, as he was the only horse to close late; may love the Poly. Working strong at FG since break; maybe best 2YO at DelPark, DQ'd from win in route stakes. Rallying 3rd in paceless CD MSW route in Nov after battling some physical issues; wintering FG. Love this speed-top, stamina-bottom pedigree; mama 2nd in 10F dirt stakes; GP turf MSW winner. Maryland Million Nursery winner over Joint Custody; strong open-company sprint 3rd in Lewis. Won 3 straight at one point, a pair at Dmr; Cal-bred may transfer talents to open sprints. Out of star mare Handpainted; hooked FREAK in FG debut and still nearly held 2nd; promising. Mid-Atlantic stakes winner short and long; earned the shot to try Aqu early season preps. 2-time stakes winner at Laurel going 7F, earned shot at Aqu over winter to see where he belongs. Won 3 of first 4 on synthetic, including Display routing at WO; dirt try in Nashua so-so. Closing 3rd to a nice Pletcher charge Surfing USA in debut and should only get better at GP. Status in doubt after pulling up, walking off in CashCall; Dmr MSW winner also was 3 rd in Real Quiet. Own worst enemy in G1 at Kee (well-backed, but fought pilot); made Havana work in NY; now at FG. FG factor following rallying 2nd in Kee fall ALW behind fast winner; dam Noisette excellent router. Even 4th in his mid-Dec debut, but wants longer and is worth a look when he stretches out. Debut 11-length winner at Spa resented slop in Hopeful; okay try in Kee Poly route; hot and cold. May 8 foal late bloomer began to work strong in Nov on dirt at SA; win-early pedigree influences. Back working SA in Dec after runner-up to Rum Point at Dmr; bet to chalk in BHP stakes debut. Excuses for 10th in CashCall (post, clipped heels); clearly talented, 1/2 to good sprinter Well Spelled. On MSW breakout alert after STRONG turf mile 2nd to stakes dropper Ontology at SA in Dec. Crushed SA MSW in 3rd start with strong splits/finish routing in late Oct; dam 1/2 to Smoke Glacken. Ky Jockey Club 2nd exited nice Kee route ALW win at end of far-reaching 2YO season; gutsy speed. ½ brother to tough handicap router Last Gunfighter; sent to Laurel for debut win late Nov. CD Sept debut winner endured really tough start but flew home while wide; tearing up OP worktab. Left work tab over summer and hasn't returned; son of BC F&M Sprint 3rd Miss Macy Sue. Won 2-turn dirt stakes at Fresno; maybe cut below SoCal's best; Hollendorfer trained sire & dam. Wide trip behind sharp Gold Hawk at CD late Nov; very useful debut prior, so there's some talent. Regally bred out of Hoh Buzzard, 1/2 to Via Villagio sent west after solid Kee debut 4th. Early season Delaware dynamo didn't step up in NY after private purchase; sprinter now at Payson. Nibbling maiden got better as fall unfolded; female family includes Excellent Meeting; OP factor. Regally bred son of Round Pond has disappointed to date; will try to right ship at Gulfstream. Dusted a big-time debut Dmr winner in GG ALW sprint to go 3-for-3; bred for sprint & has a fastball. Good debut 2nd at Lrl 12/26 behind odds-on dasher; $240k colt from female family of Came Home. Back-to-back RP wins in Oct sprinting then routing for rising barn; solid damside genes; OP or FG? Sold after big LaD debut win; no pace help at Aqu in fall ALW when 2 nd to Master Lightning. Former MCL Cal-bred improved with going-away win vs. winners at SA; pedigree for sprints. Beat CA-breds at 1st asking in Nov, then game 3rd on lead in 1M turf stakes at SA; distances? 57 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS LUICCI LUNARWARFARE MAGIC CASH MAJESTIC SUNSET MANHATTAN JOHNNIE MARVIN'S MIRACLE MASS TRANSIT MASTER LIGHTNING MATADOR MATCH UP MATTERHORN MATUSZAK MAXIMUM HORSEPOWER 58 Lemon Drop Kid War Pass Tapit Artie Schiller Roman Ruler Cosmonaut City Zip Pulpit Malibu Moon Broken Vow Tapit Bernardini Dixie Union Dynaformer Kodiak Kowboy Malibu Moon Grand Slam Birdstone Midnight Lute Big Brown Medaglia d'Oro Indian Charlie Unbridled's Song Strong Contender Bernardini Bernardini Broken Vow War Front Invasor Roman Ruler Pulpit With Distinction Corinthian Broken Vow Street Boss Istan Sky Mesa Scat Daddy Noble's Causeway Malibu Moon Malibu Moon Harbor the Gold English Channel Margolis Yates Baffert Casse Kenneally Coronel Miller Pletcher Casse Lopresti Pletcher Mott Baffert Romans Bonde Pletcher D. Matthews Mettee Baffert Ice Mott McGaughey Pletcher Catalano Baffert Pletcher Nehei Mott Aristone Leatherbury McGaughey O'Connell Kobiskie Glatt Simms Proctor Diodoro Ward Ward Gyarmati Pletcher Harwood Romans Full-brother to Balance The Books worked fall at CD, but didn't make the races; now at FG. Absent since pair of Saratoga stakes placings on the road from GP; upon return likely a sprinter. Modest works at BHP since joining workout tab in November; appears a ways off. Maiden more a Queen's Plate-type after stakes nibbles at WO on Poly at 2; training in Fla. Bet off board in Bel debut & didn't disappoint, drew off under wraps; stopped badly as Nashua chalk. Consistent turf router throughout NYRA season in stakes company; young trainer ex-Bond asst. Showed courage in Nov sprint win over CA-breds; capable on class rise & some damside stamina. Long-strider wants/needs distances; PA-bred set pace in Remsen before tiring; inconsistent. Stakes performer from day 1, broke his maiden in WO's Cup & Saucer routing on turf; Fla trainee. 3rd in good CD MSW route and put away for winter by plan with "promise for this one," barn says. 1M dirt debut winner at Aqu in Nov; dam Winter Garden was a WO sprint win machine. Devoid of speed but a pedigree to get distance; flat Remsen calls to question his brilliance. Dmr Futurity nominee yet to log a workout; third dam is Kentucky Oaks winner Dispute. Thought Ellis debut winner had chance at price in BJ Juvy, but didn't run a lick; barn likes him. Has been competitive in good maiden races, but likely sprinter needs a breakout performance. Run off feet behind fast sprinter in debut when closing for 3rd; wide trip at 4-5 in GP puzzler after. May foal won 2nd start at Kee over Awesome Sky w/ sprint speed; mama won route stakes in TX. Stole show at DelPark in MSW blowout before sale; solid BC Juvy try provides intrigue for GP. Crushed BHP MSW going 7.5F despite poor break; clearly talented out of sprinter Miss Wineshine. Pedigree suggests best on turf; consistent maiden's 2yo stakes followed w/ Tam dirt MSW score. Rare Mott debut favorite at CD ran solid 2nd to promising Clovelly; training well in Fla – beware! Slowly improving off a series of sneaky-good 4ths in NY; Fla works indicate a breakout may be near. Full-bro to Winslow Homer; AWOL since Sept after visually unimpressive Bel MSW win. AP debut winner in July hasn't been seen since; Ramsey runner w/ distance genes if/when returns. Hit BHP workout tab in October; owners liked family so much they bought dam for $475k. Showed expected improvement in 2nd start MSW win; run-all-day genes has Stay Thirsty look to him. Beat talented Reach for a Kitten in GP debut late Dec going 2 turns on turf; like his Poly pedigree. ½ to Acorn winner Contested out since Sept Bel MSW mile score when he came home nicely. Consistent Parx allowance sprinter yet to be tested long; damside pedigree leans to sprints. Sharp pedigree out of Mott's turf star mare Colcon; breakout ALW win at Laurel in Dec; intriguing. Very polished on lead, wired turf MSW at Bel prior to W2W score in Dania Beach at GP; dirt genes. 2-time Florida Stallion Stakes winner at Calder fell apart late in season; win-early type or rebound? Sharp early 2YO back on tab working at Tampa toward stakes return; 3rd Bashford Manor. Had going-away win in maiden sprint on turf over Kozani et al; talented and kept good company. Stopped badly after Ky Jockey Club early duel, but turf/dirt form at 2 was otherwise solid; tough read. Kee 2nd start sprint winner handled CD dirt route fine when 3rd to Almost Famous; dull on GP turf. Factor on Turf Paradise-Sunland paths regionally following 2-for-2 start and stakes tally. G1/G2 winner in Fra/Eng after spring Kee dash tally; world traveler may excel at middle distances. Blew away NY-bred MSW sprinters at Aqu before solid-finishing 2nd in Springboard Mile at RP. Versatile stakes performer in NY has shown guts and class; bred to run on; class of NYRA winter? Away since June debut 2nd at Belmont sprinting; mama Green Lyons was G2-placed turf router. Beaten favorite in Gottstein Futurity to stablemate Del Rio Harbor; Harwood w/ NoCal hopefuls? Debut 2nd wheeled back month later to be 5th in Ky Jockey Club; dam won G1 Oak Leaf on dirt. MEDAL COUNT MELATONIN MENDOCINO JOE MENDOTA MEXIKOMA MIDNIGHT HAWK MIGHTY BROWN MILL CREEK MISCHIEVIOUSLY MISCONNECT MISTER SPECIAL MONKEY BUSINESS MONOPOLIZE MORNING CALM MOSLER MR PALADIN MR ROVER MR SPEAKER MY BROWN EYED GUY MY CORINTHIAN MY SECRET AFFAIR MYGALSAL MYOSITIS DAN MY ROCHESTER NO NAY NEVER NOBLE CORNERSTONE NOBLE MOON NONE LIKE NOLAN NOOSITO NOTABILITY "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS NOTYOURAVERAGEJOE NOWHERE TO RUN NUMBER FIVE OH BILLY BILLY ONTOLOGY OOGELEY EYE OUR CARAVAN OUTSTRIP (GB) PABLO DEL MONTE PACHANGA PARTY PACIFIC PAPA TURF PARTY TIME PATENT PEACE MISSION PEACE OFFERING PECORINO PENOBSCOT PIMPERNEL PIONEER CHARLIE PLUG CATCHER POKER PLAYER PONTOS POWER CRAZED PRAY HARD PRAYER ON A WING PROCEED PROTONICO PURE SENSATION PURPLE SKY QUASAR POWER QUICK DAGGER RANKHASPRIVLEGES RARE RARE EAGLE REACH FOR A KITTEN REBRANDED RED OUTLAW RED RIVER RISING REQUEST RICH 'N' TUCK RIDE AWAY RIDE ON CURLIN Discreet Cat Kitten's Joy Point Given Moscow Ballet Tapit Afleet Alex Daaher Exceed And Excel Giant's Causeway Indy Wind Smart Strike Yes It's True Pulpit A.P. Indy Harlan's Holiday Giants Causeway Afleet Alex Mr. Greeley Elusive Quality Pioneerof The Nile Roman Ruler Harlan's Holiday Tale of the Cat Empire Maker Kafwain Fusaichi Pegasus Desert God Giant's Causeway Zensational Pulpit Tale of the Cat Northern Afleet Einstein Fusaichi Pegasus Birdstone Kitten's Joy Tiznow Tribal Rule Bellamy Road Dynaformer Dixie Union Candy Ride Curlin DiMauro Dilger Mandella Baffert Callaghan Romans Dilger Appleby Ward Ward Pletcher Kasparoff Baffert McLaughlin Shirreffs Biehler Pletcher McPeek Baffert Stidham Calhoun Catalano Dorochenko Baffert Hollendorfer Casse Marr Aboughazale Clement Stall Casse K. Von Hemel McPeek J. Scott Albertrani Pletcher Evans Miller Gorder Brown Zito Motion Gowan Gutted out Million Preview win in Juvenile Stakes on turf; runner-up in Pulpit on GP lawn. Former stablemate to Mexikoma nom'd to same stakes before going to GP for 33-1 MSW turf tally. Potential breakout player 4th in all 3 starts but must overcome trouble and seasoning; beware turf/dirt. 1/2 bro to sprint star Cost of Freedom debuted at 6-5 in Nov. when chasing Pray Hard home 4th. Got big confidence boost w/ Dec MSW win at SA; ran in 6 stakes at age 2 on multiple surfaces. Debut runner-up at CD in Sept failed to factor in next 2 (stakes, MSW); mostly grass damside. Debut route MSW winner at GP looped field under sustained drive; 2nd dam the superb Jersey Girl. Intrigued if BC Juvy Turf champ comes back for Blue Grass; dam Asi Siempre loved Poly. Mama ridiculously fast at 2; pair of awesome Kee efforts, but Generous and GP Derby disappointed. Won Crc's Birdonthewire sprinting, but tired in 2-turn test in Springboard Mile; pedigree not a worry. $1.8M buy in March at OBS for Stonestreet; working at Palm Meadows for much-anticipated debut. Scored courageous front-running win vs. good field; backed up in Hol Prevue - endurance a ??? Regally bred Pulpit-Furlough colt; showed improving works at BHP late fall toward debut. Modest Aqu MSW win on turf but with this pedigree and his connections he'll get his dirt try at GP. Polished Bel debut winner for barn that doesn't always crank firsters; bred to run on; gets SA shot. Well-bred rookie hooked sharp field at Kee w/ troubled trip before WinStar sold; will return at OP. Big-time route pedigree for Spa sprint-placed MSW runner if/when he returns; needs a stretch out. Outran odds/trip w/ debut 3rd in 9F turf MSW at CD; 2nd dam G1 star Life at the Top; tries dirt at OP. Son of sprint legend Xtra Heat; 3rd as heavy favorite in both debut and SA MSW follow-up try. Better than looks 4th vs salty debut group at FG for patient barn; 1/2 bro to G2-placed sprinter. Sprint debut win in slop at CD in Sept; superb 3rd in wide-trip FG route to Gold Hawk; promising. Bourbon Stakes winner on Kee Polytrack outrun on turf at BC; classy female family; sent to GP. Longshot FG barn has rocked trail before; scored Delaware MSW route before Kee stakes field-split. Strong line of fall gate works at SA toward debut, then AWOL; dam won Ky Cup Juv Fillies routing. Hard-knocker busted out with big sprint win at BHP in late Nov; middle-distances might be best. Troubled start but flew home to be clear 2nd to hot prospect Legend Forever; follow-up bombed. Freakishly good NM-bred won debut by 14 & stakes by 4 3/4; gets open company shot at Sun. Delaware debut winner wide when splitting Nashua field; training at Payson; grandson of Wild Spirit. Fast dasher has held good company lines with consistency, but gives impression he's a sprinter. Faced big-timers Honor Code, Gold Hawk & showed polish; pedigree to route, a FG factor. Poly pedigree seems to tap out around 7F-1M, but can be effective Lexington-type after Fla tries. Romping debut winner at RP for country music star Toby Keith; pedigree leans sprint/mile for OP. Sharp Kee route debut preceded mixed stakes results at Delta/BHP; female family of Forty Niner. Rallying debut 2nd at Kee when speed ran solid 1-3; hasn't moved forward since; gets Tampa shot. Green in MSW ranks but definitely wants a distance of ground and pedigree for it; talent debatable. Ramsey home-bred full-bro to G1 winner Admiral Kitten; knocking on door in KY/FL maidens. Scored 1M Riley Allison after sale; ex-Pletcher runner w/ route genes is legitimate Sun Derby player. Summer debut dash winner at BHP got back on worktab at SA in November toward return. Decent speed in even MSW sprints at CD vs. good company lines; should handle middle distance. Closed stoutly to win Bel debut before puzzling last as favorite in Dania Beach; bred to handle dirt. 3rd in Bel debut behind 2 nice prospects in what looks like key race; then hooked Gold Hawk at CD. MSW route winner at RP in late Nov green, but responded nicely & gallop-out well; sent to Tampa. Decent tries in Champagne, Iroquois & Street Sense around 1 turn; damside distance questions. 59 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS RING WEEKEND RISE UP RIVER DANCER ROGER ROCKET ROMAN FIRE ROPE A DOPE ROUGH PASSAGE ROUND ROUNDUPTHELUTE ROYALE SKY RUM POINT RUN FOR LOGISTICS SAMRAAT SANDBAR SASSICAIA SCHOOL ON A HILL SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS SCOTLAND SEAL SIX SHADOW BANKING SHARED BELIEF SHEIKINATOR SIDEARM SILENT RULER SIR JOHN HAWKINS SKYDREAMIN SMACK SMACK SMART COVER SMARTY'S ECHO SNUGGLEY BEAR SO LONESOME SOLEMNLY SWEAR SOLITARY RANGER SON OF A PREACHER SON OF DIXIE SOUND OF FREEDOM SOUPER LUCKY SOUPERFAST SOUTHERN BLESSING SOUTHERN FREEDOM SPEIGHTSHILL SPRINGBOARD STACKED DECK Tapit Rockport Harbor Pioneerof The Nile Pulpit Roman Ruler Broken Vow Stormy Atlantic Arch Midnight Lute Rock Hard Ten Malibu Moon Bernstein Noble Causeway War Pass Bernardini Student Council Rock Hard Ten Horse Greeley Tiznow Harlan's Holiday Candy Ride Curlin Kodiak Kowboy Roman Ruler Henrythenavigator Sky Mesa Closing Argument Any Given Saturday 60 Motion Amoss Cannizzo Baffert T. Dutrow Catalano Mulhall Mott Baffert McPeek O'Neill Plesa Violette Howard Brown Catalano Hofmans T. Dutrow Harty Brown Hollendorfer McPeek Contessa Desormeaux O'Brien Bonde D. Von Hemel Romans A. Smith Canani Bush Breen Catalano Calhoun Calhoun Pletcher Albertrani Mott Asmussen Hollendorfer Amoss Calhoun Minshall 3rd in pair of CD, Kee MSW routes on dirt/Polytrack; bred to love 1 1/4M and is in expert hands. Delta Jackpot champ sizzled on front end to 3 stakes wins at 2; middle-distance may be best lick. Sidelined since 2nd in With Anticipation on turf; pair of strong grassy efforts at 2; distance pedigree. Series of strong a.m. drills at BHP and SA toward winter debut; good-looking damside pedigree. 2nd start Parx MSW winner ran good 2nd in tougher Lrl ALW than it looks; 2nd dam Biogio's Rose. Won GP turf ALW w/ strong run in final quarter; appears best on turf but may get Kee return shot. Signaled quality in debut despite bad break, circling for 3rd; strong 3rd in Dec route follow-up, too. Out since debut 3rd at Bel in Sept to good bunch; from female family of BC Classic champ Blame. Stakes winner in Pomona returned to worktab in Nov after Frontrunner last of 10; must prove at SA. Debut middle-move in Kee sprint showed promise; didn't harness route speed at CD; training at GP. Dmr MSW winner bombed at Br. Cup & Delta Jackpot; tough to see as I'll Have Another sequel. Consistent stakes sprinter for barn that developed Itsmyluckyday; big-time stamina damside. Stunning 2-turn stakes debut in Runyon; warrants start vs. open foes; much more than a NY-bred. Debut summer winner at CD, but inconsistent since; gets ALW shots at FG to earn way in. $1.6M colt drilling at Palm Meadows for imminent GP debut; female family of Timber Country. Off the board in Summer and Bourbon before CD ALW 3rd in fall; appears to be a turf miler-type. 2-turn debut MSW winner at Dmr before going on shelf; 1/2 to sharp Canadian filly Coffee Clique. Solid 2nd to Surfing USA at Aqu showed he could play in big leagues; Big A winter threat. Colonel John's full-bro hooked by nice winner in Kee debut; Hartys get better w/ racing, distance. Showed stunning turn of foot on Bel turf; bred top/bottom to handle main track if/when he returns. Perfect in his career and has not been seriously challenged; romped in G1 CashCall as West's best. Flashed talent in deep debut at Kee routing; punched home in CD follow-up, but outrun in CashCall. NY-bred sprinter had productive 2YO year picking up checks but doesn't project to open routes. Distant 3rd to Kristo out west before moving to FG; appears to fit very well with that circuit. Curragh maiden winner out of stellar racemare Peeping Fawn; nibbled shares in summer stakes. Win-early pedigree clicked in NoCal but couldn't handle tougher at 2; dam 1/2 to Countess Diana. Multiple SW loves to finish, sprints or routes, for owner Toby Keith; out of Victory Gallop mare. Iroquois runner-up went to sidelines with shin issues fall; keep an eye out for GP return works winter. G1 runner-up at Kee on Poly, but never got involved in BC Juv when well back; training sharp at FG. 2nd to Indianapolis in solid BHP MSW sprint in Nov; nibbler/hard knocker at 2 with miler pedigree. Versatile stakes-winning NY-bred on any surface or distance; mama was G3-placed for Frankel. Blew away Commissioner in Mth 2-turn mile before wide-trip disappointment in Iroquois; tries GP. Arl-Wash Futurity champ dueled strong pace in route stakes at Kee before stopping; training at FG. Good CD debut over next-out winner Be Well; strong 2nd in FG ALW; mama Canadian champ 3YO f. Promising OP player improved throughout fall in KY; 2-turn test still to be passed, but has upside. Sar dirt sprint MSW winner sent to Palm Meadows following last of 5 in G2 Futurity; may be miler. Gave odds-on Commissioner a 9F run for his money at Spa, but didn't develop through fall. Woke up 2nd start w/ fine run behind experienced Pletcher foe; at Payson now; may love 2 turns. Impressed closing in 6F Sanford after being last early; disappointed in Hopeful & at Delta. Maiden away since 3 good races at Dmr vs. Guns Loaded, Dance With Fate, Schoolofhardrocks. Mixed results in FG MSW; after a nice close, failed to deliver in TOUGH race vs. Unknown Road. Dominant 3rd start MSW sprint win at CD fall to cap improving season; pedigree/build for 2 turns. Away since smashing 3rd start MSW sprint win at WO in Sept; out of G2 route winner Bel Air Beauty. Smarty Jones Sharp Humor Awesome Again Yes It's True US Ranger Pulpit Dixie Union War Front Giant's Causeway Broken Vow Dixie Union Pure Prize Speightstown Spring At Last First Samurai "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS STATION HOUSE STORMING INTI STREET GENT STREET ICON STROLL TO VICTORY STRONG MANDATE SURFING U S A SURVIVAL SWEET DADDY SYNCH THE HEAT TAMARANDO TANZANITE CAT TAP IT RICH TAPICERO TAPITURE TAQUITO TASHIR TEST RIDE THE ADMIRAL THEROS THREE POINT LUKE THREE QUARTER ROY THUNDER RUN THUNDERGRAM TIGER BOURBON TIME IZ FLYIN TIZNOWFORAMERICA TONALIST TOP BILLING TOP FORTITUDE TOURIST TOUT TRAIL BLAZE TRUE TEN TUMBAGA TWANG UNDERTAKER UNKNOWN ROAD UNOBTAINIUM UNSTOPPABLE COLBY VALDINA'S WILL VEGAS STRIP VICAR'S IN TROUBLE Rock Hard Ten Stormy Atlantic Street Sense Street Boss Stroll Tiznow Roman Ruler Giant's Causeway Scat Daddy Latent Heat Bertrando Graeme Hall Tapit Tapit Tapit Borrego Afleet Alex Zensational Giant's Causeway Pulpit Empire Maker Concerto Colonel John Graeme Hall Big Brown Early Flyer Tiznow Tapit Curlin Top Hit Tiznow Medaglia d'Oro Indian Charlie Rock Hard Ten E Dubai Dixie Union Unbridled's Song Bernardini Sky Mesa Pulpit Stormy Atlantic Harlan's Holiday Into Mischief R. Mandella Brown Gyarmati Sadler McPeek Lukas Pletcher McGaughey Amoss O'Neill Hollendorfer Autrey Baffert Morales Asmussen Kobiskie Dorochenko Pender Baffert McLaughlin O'Neill Pincin Maker Casse Kenneally Milligan Albertrani Clement McGaughey Owens Mott Mott Pletcher Baffert Harty Stall Jo. Servis Stall Baffert Lukas Calhoun Baffert Maker Wired Dmr turf mile debut impressively; poor turf stakes bids head-scratchers as there's talent here. Impressed in Awad on turf & won off-the-turf Pulpit Stakes at GP after duel; quality female family. Kept going on the lead in his 9F Aqu fall MSW win and seems to have some talent; Big A winter. May debut win at BHP; back on tab in Oct & worked strong for return 2nd to Chitu; intriguing genes. 2nd in pair of turf routes, showed summer promise before going to sidelines; grandson of Grindstone. Awesome pedigree and 2YO performances make him DWL's best prospect in years; top dog at OP. Hot firster followed debut 2nd w/ typical progression for barn in Aqu MSW win; has some talent. Away since 3rd in Bel MSW turf route behind sharp C. Brown winner; dam full to Pleasant Home. Versatile performer at 2 ran into Here's Johnny before handling pace duties in CD turf route ALW. Solid stretch of fall works at BHP toward debut; female family has a lot to like; late bloomer perhaps. Dmr Futurity/Real Quiet winner has impressive last move; classic distance the test for all. Put away early challenges and ran off to easy FG MSW win; could be tough on front end going long. Cali's best MSW win of '13, but things haven't gone right since thrown to BC Juvy wolves; X-factor? Debut 2nd in Calder stakes for barn that has Casiguapo; GP 1M MSW follow-up disappointed. Ky Jockey Club winner progressed nicely all fall; dam brilliant before injury; distance tests at FG. Spring 2YO returned from long break at Tam and scored fast sprint MSW late Dec; stamina pedigree. 2nd best to rapid Pablo Del Monte at Kee in fast ALW; 3rd routing in Delaware stakes; at Crc now. Debut 3rd at Dmr, but didn't find right distance spots after that; dam 9F turf stakes winner for Mott. Closed willingly in strong MSW to fast Chitu; very good 2nd routing to Cool Samurai; breakout next. Solid Bel turf win when never allowed breather; even, wide trip in ALW; dam Panty Raid loved Kee. Dead on board in stumbling, outrun fall debut; has some pedigree and connections to improve. Romping GP MSW winner over Pletcher rookie Vinceremos by 6; modest pedigree. Watch if barn removes blinkers on rank colt who has battled in some tough Ky MSWs; like pedigree. Nibbler has good tactical speed for barn that will give him a chance; but stamina in question. Lrl Futurity 2nd got back on beam w/ CD turf ALW route win; Bourbon disappointment training in Fla. Sprint-pedigreed, but stakes tested; dominated TX-breds at Retama after solid open tries at RP. Wired dash field at Spa before back-to-back stakes 12th-place finishes at Kee, Belmont. Solid Aqu 1M dirt route debut 4th; female family includes Havre de Grace, Riskaverse; at Payson. Impreccably bred runner sent to Lrl for dynamite Dec MSW debut win; high hopes. Easy debut BHP sprint winner at 1st asking; damside pedigree leans to win-early sprint types. Intriguing prospect fine 3rd in bow & slowly putting it together with 9F 2 nd; has pedigree, breakout? 1/2 brother to Congrats debuted late Dec at GP with troubled trip splitting field at 1M; improves. Romping MSW dash winner at Big A late Nov; 2nd dam top sprinter Klassy Kim; at Palm Meadows. Cal-bred hit workout tab in October and improving winter moves toward debut; ½ bro to Notional. Outran odds in late Dec MSW debut 4th vs strong cast SA cast; good female family, wants longer. Striking Spa MSW win w/ something left, but sidelined since follow-up derailment in Sar Special. Bust-out Parx MSW route win late Dec after not wanting to load; lightbulb may have gone off. Ex-Hushion charge crushed promising FG MSW group in 2nd try; ½ to Banshee Breeze; real player. Full-brother to Arch Traveler and Brady Blue Eyes nominated to Dmr Futurity; no works as of Dec. Improving, 2nd to sharp Gold Hawk; female family of General Challenge, Evening Jewel; OP factor. Well-backed in 2 Ky sprint 2nds on dirt/Poly; big-time female family in turf routes; away since Oct. Improving drills at BHP beginning in October toward debut; May 31 foal from strong female family. Beat FG La-breds, but did it by 13 lengths, after good debut 3rd at Kee to the filly Ruslana. 61 "THE BIG LIST" 2014 CONTENDERS VILLAGE WARRIOR VINCEREMOS WALT WAR COMMAND WARLEIGH WE MISS ARTIE WHO'S Z DADDY WHYRUAWESOME WICKED STRONG WILDCAT RED WINE TIPSTER WIRED BRYAN WOELF DEN WOODFORD SPRINGS WRY WYNHURST YANKEE HUNTER YARD LINE YES I'M LUCKY Majestic Warrior Pioneerof The Nile Run Away and Hide War Front Speightstown Artie Schiller The Daddy Whywhywhy Hard Spun D'Wildcat Hard Spun Stormy Atlantic Curlin Raven's Pass Distorted Humor Fairbanks Yankee Gentleman Discreet Cat Yes It's True Pletcher Pletcher C. Hartman O'Brien T. Dutrow Pletcher Asmussen A. Smith J. Jerkens Garafolo Pletcher Dilger McLaughlin Arnold Hartlage Baffert Burgess Harty Plesa Lost Spa debut chance when broke slowly, but still rallied nicely; distance-exposed a bit at Aqu. Debut 2nd at odds-on in GP sprint late Nov over sloppy track; female family of sprint star Safely Kept. Speedball dominated pair of RP dashes, then solid 4th in Springboard Mile; sprint/miler pedigree. Top Euro miler for Coolmore unlikely to be tested farther; notched Dewhurst & Coventry at 2. August odds-on debut sprint winner at Delaware, but AWOL since; dam was solid stakes sprinter. G1 winner, but sire notorious for dirt duds; BC Juvy bid was better than expected; Blue Grass target. 2nd start Bel fall MSW sprint winner over odds-on Pletcher rookie; pedigree leans shorter. Arl-Wash Futurity 2nd split field in Delta Jackpot w/ modest rally; FG-based, devoid of early speed. Absolutely love this pedigree and his visually sharp Remsen 3rd with a less-than-dream trip. Strong sprinter at GP before big boys hit town; showed guts in GP Derby at 1-turn mile; 2 bends? Rallying debut GP dash winner in Oct, but disappointed in ALW; dam 2nd routing in Bonnie Miss. Laughed at NYBs in Bongard & deserves shot to run long in Fla; dam a stakes-placed 5F sprinter. Improving with each start and might be ready to break through soon; pedigree and connections solid. Regally bred out of Communique; solid debut 3rd going 2 turns on GP lawn late Dec.; will improve. Mama High Heels was a runner (3rd Ky Oaks); strong late in 7F CD MSW win in Sept; return at OP? Big works since mid-Dec debut 4th in solid race; expect improvement, though rather modest genes. Won going away vs. LA-breds in 2nd start at FG; should handle route (out of Jade Hunter mare). Rallying 2nd in debut vs. speedy Chitu; should graduate soon; grandson of Unbridled Elaine. Lrl Futurity winner/Sapling runner-up has plenty of stakes experience; mama awesome turf sprinter. 62 THE BIG LIST SUPERLATIVES Trainers Most "List-ed" 36 – Todd Pletcher 30 – Bob Baffert 14 – Dale Romans 14 – Chad Brown 12 – Mark Casse 11 – Bill Mott 10 – Steve Asmussen 9 – Kenny McPeek 8 – John Sadler 8 – Kiaran McLaughlin 8 – Bret Calhoun 7 – Jerry Hollendforfer 7 – Wesley Ward 6 – Shug McGaughey 6 – Doug O'Neill 6 – Tom Albertrani 6 – Tom Proctor Sires Most "List-ed" 17 – Tapit 10 – Tiznow 9 – Broken Vow 9 – Pulpit 9 – Unbridled's Song 9 – War Front 8 – Giant's Causeway 8 – Malibu Moon 8 – Harlan's Holiday 7 – Bernardini 7 – Candy Ride 7 – Dixie Union 7 – Pioineerof The Nile 7 – Roman Ruler 6 – Curlin 6 – Sky Mesa 6 – Street Boss 63 SAY THANKS! THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS! GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK! 64 SEE APPENDIX IN THIS ISSUE FOR UPDATED ODDS FROM WYNN! Countdown to the Crown went 1-on-1 with Las Vegas' No. 1 oddsmaker, John Avello of the Wynn Las Vegas. He'll put a line on anything – from "Dancing With The Stars" to the Kentucky Derby clocking. C2C: Who sets the Derby Futures odds at Wynn? Is it you, or a team that assembles the odds for several hundred contenders? AVELLO: That's me. It's John Avello and John Avello alone. I start a research list in June, then follow Saratoga and Del Mar closely and other key 2-year-old races. I'll come up with a list of 125-150 horses for the September opener. Then what happens – I just got a call, sitting at my desk five minutes ago, from a guy wanting me to add four horses – is that I'll get requests every single day from players who want me to add. C2C: How difficult is it to set the opening odds, especially for those without much experience? AVELLO: I just try to be fair with odds. A lot of times when we open up, we'll be at a minus with our future book, meaning that if you bet every horse at the opening odds that you'd be guaranteed to turn a profit if any of those won the Derby. Obviously, the risk you run there is that the Derby winner may not be on the list of 300-400 horses. Who knows when the new "now" horse will enter the picture? As far as the way odds are made, it's all about a feel for me. I've been doing this a long time. If he's unraced, I'll look at his breeding, who his trainer is, and all the factors a handicapper would look at it for a first-time starter. There are no algorithms or calculations with it when setting odds for horses. It's a feel. 65 C2C: When the odds line moves on a horse, is it an adjustment on your part because of observation or a reaction to betting action? SEE APPENDIX IN THIS ISSUE FOR UPDATED ODDS FROM WYNN! AVELLO: It could be either of the two. Certainly if there's a race coming up that involves that horse and he runs very well, I may change the odds even if I haven't taken a bet on him yet. Sometimes it's a slight drop, sometimes it's drastic. Sometimes I'll raise the odds – if a horse is life and death going seven furlongs and we're looking at a mile and a quarter for the Derby – he could be raised even in an unimpressive victory. C2C: Last year, you had Palace Malice at just 35-1 in January before his 3-year-old return. Did you have intuition on him being a Belmont Stakes winner, a classics-quality horse early on, or was that about a ton of play on him? AVELLO: Yeah, that was all about play. I don't let my personal emotions get in the way of booking horses. I don't know who the winner of the Derby is. My job is to get money in that pot on all the horses. What I need to do as an oddsmaker is to raise some as I'm lowering some, trying to make sure the ones I'm raising are now attractive. C2C: What sized plays are typical on the Derby Futures? And what's the high-end? AVELLO: We've had a lot of guys win $100,000 on a horse, sometimes more. Most come in to win $25,000 on a horse. Some don't want to bet that high. They want to bet a couple hundred on a 20-1 shot to get $4,000. It depends on the individual. Some want to get as much as they can possibly get to win on a horse, and that's in the 25 to 30 (thousand) range. After a person makes that wager, we'll adjust the odds and they're allowed to bet it again at those new odds. C2C: Who are some horses who took a boatload of money in the past that stand out? AVELLO: Funny Cide took a lot. I didn't know them at the time, but Jack Knowlton and Gus Williams came in and bet their horse pretty good. Here I was, saying, "He's by Distorted Humor … he's a gelding … he's a New Yorkbred … C'mon, how's that gonna happen?!" Those guys made quite a bit of money in our Future book, and we became good friends over the years. Sometimes that happens, you give up some money, but you make some friends along the way. I recall Fusaichi Pegasus grabbing money after his first race. I was in a little bit of trouble after that first race. I had a lot of people come in and bet him at a high number, around 200-1, so I got burned on him. Empire Maker was another one; I took a lot of money on him before even his first start. People were right on him – he just didn't win the Derby. 66 SEE APPENDIX IN THIS ISSUE FOR UPDATED ODDS FROM WYNN! C2C: Who are some of the hot horses for 2014? AVELLO: Almost Famous took some good money at 200-plusto-1. Bobby's Kitten, a horse the Ramseys own, has taken quite a bit of money. Of course, there's Honor Code. I put him up at 45 to open and people were lined up at the window to bet him early. A horse named Mosler has taken some early money. He's a horse a lot of people aren't talking about, but he certainly could be a contender before it's all said and done. Tap It Rich may have taken more money than anyone up to this point. C2C: With the Super Bowl on deck, it's got to be a great time for racebook visitors. AVELLO: I'm a little prejudiced on the way we run the show here, but I think this is one of the better properties to come to. If you're a horseplayer and you're coming to town, I feel this is where you need to come. First of all, it's a very comfortable atmosphere. The audio-visual presentation is fantastic. We have a fine staff and you're treated first as a horseplayer. Horseplayers don't get shut out here at Wynn. My staff knows horseplayers come first, because sports guys are always going to get their bet in; they always have time. They realize when that bell rings, the horseplayer can't get his bet in any longer. And, we give back a really fair amount back in complimentaries that you can use in any of the amenities on the property, the restaurants, the spa, special room rates. C2C: What's in store for contest players? AVELLO: We have a great contest that takes place the first Friday and Saturday in August. It's two tracks only, Del Mar and Saratoga, with a $2,000 entry. Each day you pick 15 horses from the two tracks combined. Last year we had 150-160 entries and we gave all the prize money back. The customers enjoy playing premier tracks and concentrating on two cards. If you finish first or second, you win a trip to the (DRF/NTRA) National Handicapping Championship over at Treasure Island. 67 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER – PARIMUTUEL KDFW Need-to-Know Pool 1: Wed-Sat, Nov. 27-30 (CLOSED) Pool 2: Thurs-Sat, Feb. 6-8 Pool 3: Thurs-Sat, Feb. 27-Mar 1 Pool 4: Thurs-Sat Mar 27- 29 Oaks Pool: Thurs-Sat, Feb. 27-Mar 1 KDFW Pool 1 Closing Odds (Nov. 27-30, 2013) Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Almost Famous Bobby"s Kitten Bond Holder Cairo Prince Cleburne Commissioner Coup de Grace Financial Mogul Havana Honor Code In Trouble Kobe"s Back Mexikoma Misconnect New Year"s Day Noble Moon Pablo Del Monte Ride On Curlin Rise Up Shared Belief Strong Mandate Tamarando Tap It Rich All Other 3YOs Odds 30-1 28-1 40-1 26-1 62-1 33-1 48-1 99-1 26-1 10-1 53-1 84-1 40-1 43-1 15-1 63-1 59-1 57-1 50-1 32-1 27-1 42-1 25-1 4-5 $2 Pay $62.80 $58.80 $82.80 $55.60 $126.00 $69.80 $99.20 $453.40 $54.20 $22.80 $109.80 $171.20 $82.80 $88.80 $32.40 $129.40 $121.60 $117.40 $102.80 $66.20 $57.60 $86.20 $52.20 $3.60 KDFW Strategies -By Jeremy Plonk "All Other 3YOs" can be looked at as a cop-out or a strategic wager. But the 15-year run of the KDFW indicates that the spring"s middle pool (formerly Pool 2, now Pool 3 in this year"s 4-Pool line-up) is the time to utilize the community. Consider that "All Other 3YOs" has clicked 7 of 15 years in Pool 1 for a total return of $48.40 cumulative. That"s not bad, getting an $18.40 profit on your $30 investment if you played them all for $2 over the years. Now note that "All Other 3YOs" has been successful in 6 of 15 years in Pool 2 for a total return of $93.20! The percentage of success is negligibly less, while the payoffs have been nearly twice as large. Your $30 investment here has netted a $63.20 profit. For those waiting until the final KDFW Pool to play "All Other 3YOs," it"s been a 3-for-15 proposition, but handsome cumulative rewards at $87.40 make it a massive ROI profit over the long haul. So while the temptation may be to play "All Other 3YOs" earlier in the game because you think you"ll have more coverage, it"s paid to be patient playing that card in the KDFW past. My thresholds for betting individual horses are 40-1 for this year"s Pool 2, 30-1 in Pool 3 and then for Pool 4 I"m trying to get twice the projected odds I think the horse would be on Derby Day. Those "fair odds" provide for the reality that a lot can and will go wrong over time and compensate your leap of faith. Always assume your horse will win or place in his next prep and try to figure where that puts them in the pecking order of contenders and projected odds. If they don"t run 1-2, they probably don"t continue on and factor anyway. Win Wagering: $238,078 Exacta Wagering: $35,096 Total KDFW Pool 1 Handle: $273,174 This marks the 16th consecutive season in which Churchill Downs has offered Kentucky Derby Future Wagering, dating back to 1999. The $2 minimum win pool is joined by an exacta pool that allows for $1 boxes and part-wheels and a $2 minimum. Wagers made on KDFW pools are non-refundable and pay off at the odds at the close of the individual pool, regardless of what a horse"s actual Kentucky Derby post time odds may be. Real-time odds and KDFW additional info are available at www.KentuckyDerby.com, and information on the Oaks Future Wager is available at www.KentuckyOaks.com 68 KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER – PARIMUTUEL Past Kentucky Derby Winners … In the Futures Kentucky Derby Winner " 13 Orb " 12 I'll Have Another " 11 Animal Kingdom " 10 Super Saver " 09 Mine That Bird " 08 Big Brown " 07 Street Sense " 06 Barbaro " 05 Giacomo " 04 Smarty Jones " 03 Funny Cide " 02 War Emblem " 01 Monarchos " 00 Fusaichi Pegasus " 99 Charismatic KDFW 1 $2 Win $4.40 (f) $60.20 $6.20 (f) $43.20 $5.80 (f) $8.60 (f) $22.80 $40.20 $52.00 $5.60 (f) $188.00 $7.60 (f) $36.60 $27.80 $10.20(f) KDFW 2 $2 Win $26.20 $46.20 $9.40 (f) $51.20 $11.80 (f) $15.00 (f) $18.20 $32.20 $54.20 $10.80 (f) $120.80 $16.00 (f) $13.00 $26.40 $30.20 (f) KDFW 3 $2 Win $29.60 $45.60 $64.40 $73.00 $36.80 (f) $8.60 $15.40 $20.80 $103.60 $23.60 $107.40 $24.00 (f) $15.80 $ 8.00 $26.60 (f) Derby $2 Win $12.80 $32.60 $43.80 $18.00 $103.20 $6.80 $11.80 $14.20 $102.60 $10.20 $27.60 $43.00 $23.00 $6.60 $64.60 Previous Wagering Totals for KDFW Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 KDFW 1 $621,493 $631,304 $592,492 $466,048 $478,721 $439,379 $520,688 $552,627 $620,362 $536,958 $516,906 $577,889 $510,815 $465,454 $267,748 KDFW 2 $407,038 $411,368 $376,699 $355,853 $380,420 $325,306 $379,613 $464,236 $511,655 $358,966 $391,002 $401,070 $372,961 $306,259 $178,811 KDFW 3 $402,167 $427,374 $392,910 $310,154 $377,158 $291,835 $465,123 $454,743 $533,973 $386,244 $222,261 $524,847 $425,871 $387,206 $229,674 Total Handle $1,430,698 $1,470,019 $1,362,101 $1,132,055 $1,236,299 $1,056,520 $1,365,424 $1,471,606 $1,665,990 $1,282,168 $1,130,169 $1,503,806 $1,309,647 $1,158,919 $ 676,233 69 CLICK THE AD TO GO TO HORSEPLAYERNOW.COM 70 71 2014 Triple Crown Trail Kentucky Derby qualifying points listed where applicable for 1 st-2nd-3rd-4th finishers. 1 4 4 4 4 11 18 18 19 20 20 25 25 25 JANUARY Gulfstream Park Derby (GP) Jerome (Aqu) 10-4-2-1 Spectacular Bid (GP) Pasco (Tam) Whiteley (Lrl) Sham (SA) 10-4-2-1 Lecomte (FG) 10-4-2-1 California Derby (GG) Kitten's Joy-turf (GP) Smarty Jones (OP) 10-4-2-1 Winkfield (Aqu) Holy Bull (GP) 10-4-2-1 Miracle Wood (Lrl) California Cup Derby (SA) Follow Countdown each Friday – all the way through the Belmont Stakes! 1 1 1 1 8 13 15 16 17 22 22 22 22 22 FEBRUARY Sam F. Davis (Tam) Withers (Aqu) 10-4-2-1 Hutcheson (GP) 96 Rock (TP) Bob Lewis (SA) 10-4-2-1 UAE 2000 Guineas (Mey) El Camino Real Derby (GG) 10-4-2-1 San Vicente (SA) Southwest (OP) 10-4-2-1 Fountain of Youth (GP)50-20-10-5 Risen Star (FG) 50-20-10-5 Mine That Bird Derby (Sun) Gazebo (OP) Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) 22 23 29 29 29 MARCH (continued) Rushaway (TP) Sunland Derby (Sun) 50-20-10-5 Florida Derby (GP)100-40-20-10 Louisiana Derby (FG) 100-40-20-10 UAE Derby (Mey) 100-40-20-10 MARCH 1 1 1 1 1 2 8 8 8 8 15 22 Gotham (Aqu) 50-20-10-5 Palm Beach-turf (GP) Swale (GP) Black Gold-turf (FG) John Battaglia (TP) Smooth Air (Crc) Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) 50-20-10-5 San Felipe (SA) 50-20-10-5 Al Bastakiya (Mey) Private Terms (Lrl) Rebel (OP) 50-20-10-5 Spiral (TP) 50-20-10-5 5 5 5 5 12 12 12 19 19 26 26 APRIL * - tentative date Santa Anita Derby (SA) 100-40-20-10 Wood Memorial (Aqu) 100-40-20-10 Bay Shore (Aqu) Calder Derby (Crc) Arkansas Derby (OP) 100-40-20-10 Blue Grass (Kee) 100-40-20-10 Northern Spur (OP) Lexington (Kee) 10-4-2-1 Illinois Derby (Haw) Derby Trial (CD) Federico Tesio (Pim) MAY 3 10 17 Kentucky Derby (CD) Peter Pan (Bel) Preakness (Pim) JUNE 7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 72 The paths to Louisville, Baltimore and Elmont have been beaten down over the years. But does one route beat the others? Let"s examine the regional roads from winter through spring. FLORIDA Prep Holy Bull Sam F. Davis Hutcheson-7f Fntn of Youth Palm Beach-T Swale-7f Smooth Air Tampa Derby Florida Derby Calder Derby Track GP Tam GP GP GP GP Crc Tam GP Crc Date Jan-25 Feb-1 Feb-1 Feb-22 Mar-1 Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-8 Mar-29 Apr-5 with great Triple Crown success the past three years. No doubt, Florida has been THE place to be whether it"s training at Palm Meadows or Payson Park and shipping out of town, or racing at GP. KENTUCKY Prep Battaglia Spiral Blue Grass Lexington Derby Trial Track TP TP Kee Kee CD Date Mar-1 Mar-22 Apr-12 Apr-19 Apr-26 CALIFORNIA Prep Sham Lewis Mem. ElCaminoReal San Vicente-7f San Felipe SA Derby Track SA SA GG SA SA SA Date Jan-11 Feb-1 Feb-15 Feb-16 Mar-8 Apr-5 Gulfstream has tinkered with its race schedule and distances in recent years and it seems to have worked. Orb, Palace Malice, Union Rags, Shackleford and Animal Kingdom all have used a variety of races on various surfaces, distances & classes In 2012, I'll Have Another and Bodemeister restored the west coast"s reputation, which had been spectacular in the 1990s and early 2000s, but had fallen on quiet times since Giamoco and his improbable 50-1 Derby upset of "05 . Lookin At Lucky earned Preakness glory from the west in "10. The west hasn"t had a true Belmont winner since Point Given in 2001 and Empire Maker in 2003, though the latter shipped east for much of his preparation. Those wishing to stay home in the Bluegrass State likely would be making a surface adjustment when they arrive at the Triple Crown, given the Polytrack surfaces in play at both Turfway Park and Keeneland. But that surface switch-a-roo has not been an impossible hurdle – Derby winner Animal Kingdom pulled it off, while dirt-seasoned runners like Street Sense and Palace Malice found Triple Crown success while bouncing between surfaces. Most taking the Kentucky route will have started the winter in Florida, Louisiana or Arkansas – shipping north in March. Continued next page… 73 ARKANSAS Prep Smarty Jones Southwest Rebel Gazebo-6f Bachelor-6f Northern Spur Arkansas Drby Track OP OP OP OP OP OP OP Date Jan-20 Feb-17 Mar-15 Mar-22 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-12 While Oaklawn had its share of success on the road to the Triple Crown over the decades, the most-recent decade clearly has raised OP to a new level. The great Smarty Jones in 2004 swept Oaklawn"s sophomore series en route to victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The rest, as they say, has been history. Since, horses like Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lookin At Lucky, Summer Bird and Oxbow a year ago have tasted Triple Crown success. Meet-based barns have shared the bigrace success with out-oftown invaders from power stables like Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher. placement of this race in recent years. The extension to 1 1/8 miles in 2010 also gave legitimacy to the local Derby as a bronzing test. Horses like Palace Malice and Oxbow danced through the New Orleans zip code last year en route to twothirds of the Triple Crown, as did Ky Derby 2nd & 3rdplace finishers Golden Soul and Revolutionary. JEREMY PLONK RANKS THE REGIONS 1. Florida Weather, training centers, turf/dirt racing and successful preps at both GP and Tampa make this the place to be. 2. Arkansas NEW YORK Prep Jerome Winkfield-6f Withers Gotham Wood Bay Shore-7f Peter Pan Track Aqu Aqu Aqu Aqu Aqu Aqu Bel Date Jan-4 Jan-20 Feb-1 Mar-1 Apr-5 Apr-5 May-10 Launching pad to the stars, most of the highly brilliant Triple Crown performers of recent years have used these preps. Without turf & because so many ship-in runners have success, the lean goes to FL. 3. California LOUISIANA Prep Lecomte Risen Star Black Gold-T Louisiana Drby Track FG FG FG FG Date Jan-18 Feb-22 Mar-1 Mar-29 What once was a midseason prep to another final destination race, the Louisiana Derby now has become a prominent lastcall event five weeks out from the "Run for the Roses." Churchill Downs" ownership of Fair Grounds no doubt has played a major role in the rising profile and For much of Triple Crown history, NYRA"s impact on the spring boiled down to April"s Wood Memorial and May"s Peter Pan as a Belmont Stakes springboard. But late-season races like the Jerome and Withers have been repositioned in the current landscape to fill a more robust trail leading into March"s Gotham Stakes. In the dead of winter, the early season races are at the mercy of Mother Nature, but have developed nicely in their new schedule slots. The Wood has not produced a Derby 1-2-3 finisher since Funny Cide and Empire Maker in 2003, a chilling fact. No doubt the Wood has been impacted by a later placement on the calendar of the Florida and Louisiana Derbies, as well as the ascenion of the Oaklawn series. Make no mistake, the west coast can produce an elite racehorse and its top-end is as good - or better - than anywhere. But a lack of depth in the divisions is real, even when we see so many Calis hit the road and succeed. 4. Louisiana This is the first year I rank LA over KY. The preps are wellspaced, progressive and wellreceived in recent years. FG"s 3YOs are trending in a positive manner. Expect to see even more production out of this region in the coming years. 5. Kentucky Keeneland holds up its end with a consistently productive Blue Grass, but the calendar doesn"t allow for much else. The Lexington has lost steam as trainers now require more time between races. Turfway"s Spiral has sputtered if not for Animal Kingdom & Hard Spun. 6. New York I like the new-look NYRA slate and it should help in the future. But the results simply aren"t there at this point to rank any higher. 74 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF EACH RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. JEROME STAKES January 4, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Vyjack kept his winter coat on en route to the winner"s circle. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE JEROME: At a mile and 70 yards on the inner-dirt course, the Jerome gives a two-turn test to newly turned sophomores who dare to brave the New York winter. Two years ago, the NYRA winter was very mild and helped keep a quality prospect like Alpha up north. Since Gulfstream's first two-turn dirt ―points‖ race isn't until Jan. 25, a horseman with a runner who needs to run ―now‖ can get an earlier shot at a good graded stakes pot. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The Jerome smartly was moved last year to a winter graded stakes launching pad for NYRA's 3-year-old series. Traditionally a Fall Meet race, it had been moved to April in the late 2000s as a Belmont Stakes prep springboard. Its latest move enabled the Jerome to replace the listed Whirlaway Stakes on the NYRA calendar and paid immediate dividends. Vyjack proved a worthy winner. Siete de Oros would go on to run third in the Illinois Derby and Notacowbutallama became a graded stakes winner on turf later in the season. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: With only three editions placed in front of the Triple Crown, the history of this race is growing. It produced a BC Sprint winner (The Lumber Guy, '12) and a Preakness third during two-year run in April. Ky Derby: Vyjack (18th, '13) Preakness: Astrology (3 , '11) Belmont: Vyjack (8th, '13). rd HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Jerome Winners '13 Vyjack '12 The Lumber Guy '11 Adios Charlie '10 race not held '09 Girolamo '08 Tale of Ekati '07 Daaher '06 Discreet Cat '05 Silver Train '04 Teton Forest C. VelasquezR. BRIS Fig 93 96 101 105 100 109 112 110 111 Rodriguez Luzzi Hushion Maragh Hough A. Garcia bin Suroor Tagg Luzzi McLaughlin Gomez bin Suroor Prado R. Dutrow Bridgmohan Baffert C. Velasquez Last 10 Jerome Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Vyjack '12 The Lumber Guy '11 Adios Charlie '10 race not held '09 Girolamo '08 Tale of Ekati '07 Daaher '06 Discreet Cat '05 Silver Train '04 Teton Forest 1st 5th 1st Overnight stakes (Aqu) Wood Memorial (Aqu) Allowance (GP) Allowance (Bel) Travers (Sar) Allowance (Sar) Allowance (Sar) Amsterdam (Sar) Riva Ridge (Bel) 1st 7th 1st 1st 3rd 2nd Inside the Jerome Stakes We've had just one Jerome on the inner-dirt this time of year, so it's premature to draw strong conclusions. But note 41-1 and 39-1 shippers from the Mid-Atlantic ran 2-3 last year behind Vyjack, so don't flippantly disregard PA/MD form in January. Countdown for the Jerome 119 days until Derby 133 days until Preakness 154 days until Belmont 75 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SHAM STAKES January 11, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Goldencents ended his season a BC Dirt Mile champion after opening in the Sham. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SHAM: The Sham opens the West Coast's road to the Triple Crown for 3-year-olds, but it's only 28 days after the running of the circuit's big juvenile finale, the more lucrative CashCall Futurity across town. Hence, it's had only a field of five each of the last three years. Inaugurated in 2001, this once was a 1-1/8 miles test that has been truncated over the years now to a twoturn mile. Horses conceivably could cut back from the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to run here given the spacing of the race and two-turn nature. But the distance and follow-up nature to the CashCall make this more of a middle-distance horse's goal in today's Derby trail culture. It's probably no coincidence that this race has produced the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner twice and the BC Sprint winner once in just the three years since it was shortened and moved to January. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Goldencents exited a win in the Delta Jackpot to score a pace-pressing win at 2-5 odds. Two of his four beaten rivals were wheeling back off of short rest / disappointing results in the CashCall Futurity. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Let's look at only the three years at a shorter distance in January to compare apples to apples. Ky Derby: Goldencents (17th, '13) Preakness: Goldencents (5th, '13) Belmont: none HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Sham Winners '13 Goldencents '12 Out of Bounds '11 Tapizar '10 Alphie's Bet '09 The Pamplemousse '08 Colonel John '07 Ravel '06 Bob And John '05 Going Wild '04 Master David Krigger Gomez Gomez Solis Solis Gomez Gomez Espinoza Espinoza Solis 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 2nd 1st 1st 1st 3rd O'Neill Harty Asmussen Barba Canani Harty M. McCarthy Baffert Lukas Frankel BRIS Fig 93 105 103 94 97 90 102 106 99 101 Last 10 Sham Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Goldencents '12 Out of Bounds '11 Tapizar '10 Alphie's Bet '09 The Pamplemousse '08 Colonel John '07 Ravel '06 Bob And John '05 Going Wild '04 Master David Delta Jackpot (DeD) Maiden (Hol/BHP) Maiden (CD) Maiden (SA) San Rafael (SA) CashCall Futurity (Hol/BHP) Maiden (Hol/BHP) Allowance (SA) San Miguel (SA) Santa Catalina/Lewis (SA) Inside the Sham Stakes Eight of the last nine winners of this race exited winning preps, including all three since the race was shortened and moved earlier in the meet. Horses within two lengths of the lead after the first half-mile have won the last three Sham editions. Countdown for the Sham 119 days until Derby 133 days until Preakness 154 days until Belmont 76 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. LECOMTE STAKES January 18, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Oxbow kicked off his "13 Preakness-winning campaign in the Lecomte. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE LECOMTE: The Lecomte is the Mid-South's first two-turn prep on the trail, worth $200,000 in purse money, but only by two days as it shares the MLK Holiday weekend with Oaklawn's $300,000 Southwest. The two races compete for many of the same-type runners. At a mile and 70 yards in distance, it serves as a similar rehearsal for the Risen Star (1-1/16 miles) en route to the Louisiana Derby (1-1/8 miles). For many young horses, this will be their first test of a demanding, lengthy stretch run at FG. Horses coming back on fairy short rest (3-4 weeks) have done very well in the Lecomte in recent years. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Oxbow, the eventual Preakness hero, dominated this race by a stakes-record 11-1/2 length margin a year ago. The distant runner-up turned out to be Kentucky Derby second Golden Soul. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: No doubt the '13 result catches the eye and War Emblem was well-beaten in this race in '02 before his amazing wakeup later that spring. The Lecomte picked up steam in 2007 and built on momentum created by Hard Spun. Here's the tally since 2007: Ky Derby: Golden Soul (2nd, '13), Pants On Fire (9th, '11), Friesan Fire (18th, '09), Z Fortune (10th, '08), Hard Spun (2nd, '07), Teuflesberg(17th, '07) Preakness: Oxbow (1st, '13), Friesan Fire (10th, ‗09), Hard Spun (3rd, '07) Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, '07) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Lecomte Winners '13 Oxbow '12 Mr Bowling '11 Wilkinson '10 Ron the Greek '09 Friesan Fire '08 Z Fortune '07 Hard Spun '05 Storm Surge '04 Fire Slam '03 Saintly Look '06 race not held BRIS Fig 94 95 92 98 97 99 101 93 97 96 Court Lukas Albarado L. Jones Gomez Howard Graham Amoss Saez L. Jones Bridgmohan Asmussen Pino L. Jones Albarado D. Stewart Sellers D. Carroll Sellers D. Stewart 4th 3rd 3rd 4th 2nd 1st 1st 1st 2nd 1st Last 10 Lecomte Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Oxbow '12 Mr Bowling '11 Wilkinson '10 Ron the Greek '09 Friesan Fire '08 Z Fortune '07 Hard Spun '05 Storm Surge '04 Fire Slam '03 Saintly Look CashCall Futurity (BHP) Iroquois Stakes (CD) Allowance (FG) Springboard Mile (RP) Allowance (FG) Allowance (Aqu) PA Nursery(Pha/Prx) Sugar Bowl (FG) Delta Jackpot (DeD) Sugar Bowl (FG) Inside the Lecomte Stakes Eleven of the last 12 Lecomte winners were less than three lengths behind after the opening halfmile ... 11 of the last 12 Lecomte winners were 5-1 or less on the tote since 42-1 and 59-1 upsets in 1999 and 2000. Countdown for the Lecomte 105 days until Derby 119 days until Preakness 140 days until Belmont 77 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. KITTEN'S JOY January 19, 2014 Derby qualifying points: None SEE STAKES HISTORY BELOW The ORIGINAL Kitten – Kitten"s Joy and owner Ken Ramsey. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE KITTEN'S JOY: With big-money preps at Keeneland and Turfway on the Polytrack later in the spring, turf races at Gulfstream have become a haven as ―one-off‖ Derby preps. Simply put, they can get you places, but you'll need to go somewhere else to find your way home. Horses exiting this race most likely will head to the Palm Beach Stakes next on the GP turf before considering Kentucky's synthetic tracks in March and April. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Charming Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, won his daddy's namesake race as the prohibitive 3-5 favorite. He would go on to place in the Palm Beach on the GP grass before transitioning to Polytrack with a third in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland and a date in the Kentucky Derby. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Kitten's Joy was inaugurated in 2012, so its short history precludes it from having a major impact on the Triple Crown so far. Ky Derby: Charming Kitten (9th, '13) Preakness: incomplete. Belmont: incomplete. HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado and Howe Great upset his more fancied stablemate Lucky Chappy by dictating a slow pace in the inaugural running of the Kittens' Joy in 2012. Last 2 Kitten's Joy Stakes Winners BRIS Fig '13 Charming Kitten Velazquez / Pletcher '12 Howe Great Prado / Motion '13 Charming Kitten 2nd '12 Howe Great 1st 94 93 Last 2 Kitten's Joy Stakes Winners' Preps Dania Beach (GP turf) Allowance (GP turf) Inside the Kitten's Joy Stakes Favorites have run first (Charming Kitten) and second (Lucky Chappy) in the first two runnings of the Kitten's Joy. Both winners were forwardly placed with slow fractions in fields of seven and eight, as Howe Great wired the field and Charming Kitten pressed the pace. Countdown for the Kitten's Joy Stakes 104 days until Derby 118 days until Preakness 139 days until Belmont BET THE KITTEN'S JOY AT: 78 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SMARTY JONES January 20, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 SEE STAKES HISTORY BELOW Caleb"s Posse began his rise to BC Dirt Mile winner in the Smarty Jones. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SMARTY JONES: The one-mile listed stakes kicks off Oaklawn's highly successful quartet of sophomore routes, culminating in the nine-furlong Arkansas Derby. Held on the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday card, it quickly has launched itself into graded stakes consideration after only six editions. The one-mile events at Oaklawn end at the sixteenth-pole finish line, but that hasn't stopped patented closers like Caleb's Posse, Will Take Charge and Flat Out from tasting success. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Will Take Charge, the eventual Travers winner and Breeders' Cup Classic runner-up, turned the tables on his Springboard Mile conqueror Texas Bling. He completed a huge weekend for D. Wayne Lukas, who two days prior won the Lecomte at FG with Oxbow, in a big sign of things to come in 2013. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Smarty Jones has had a long-term reach in its half-dozen years. Its alumni have won the Travers, PA Derby, King's Bishop, Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, Suburban (2x) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (2x). Ky Derby: Will Take Charge (8th, '13), Optimizer (11th, '12), Archarcharch (dnf, '11) Preakness: Will Take Charge (7th, '13), Optimizer (6th, '12) Belmont: Will Take Charge (10th, '13), Optimizer (10th, '12) THAT'S A FACT Parx also runs a Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds on Labor Day, and in 2012 Junebugred finished 4th in Philly while trying to sweep the Smarty party. HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: All Smarty Jones Winners '13 Will Take Charge Court '12 Junebugred Bravo '11 Caleb's Posse Razo '10 Dryfly Borel '09 Flat Out JuGarcia '08 Liberty Bull Razo '13 Will Take Charge 2nd '12 Junebugred 1st '11 Caleb's Posse 7th '10 Dryfly 1st '09 Flat Out 1st '08 Liberty Bull 2nd BRIS Fig 93 91 85 95 96 92 Lukas Hobby DK Von Hemel Whiting Dickey Amoss All Smarty Jones Stakes Winners' Preps Springboard Mile (RP) Maiden (Aqu) Springboard Mile (RP) Allowance (CD) Maiden (FG) Sugar Bowl (FG) Inside the Smarty Jones Stakes Avoid those looking for class relief as all six winners to date were exiting listed stakes or rising in class in good form. Five of six flashed a win or 2nd most recently. Big-hitting regional barns have been successful in this race, spotting their charges well. Countdown for the Smarty Jones 103 days until Derby 117 days until Preakness 138 days until Belmont 79 A N Y W H E R E WATCH AND WAGER FROM ANYWHERE! • Exclusive handicapping tips and tools • FREE Past Performances • Live streaming video and race replays • Real time racing information • EZmoney online deposit and withdrawal service Be a part of all the action Anywhere in Arkansas! $100 SIGN UP BONUS AT OAKLAWNANYWHERE.COM Gambling Problem? 1-800-522-4700 80 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. HOLY BULL January 25, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY The Great Holy Bull – best 3yo ever to totally flop in the Triple Crown? KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE HOLY BULL: The Holy Bull marks the first two-turn dirt test at Gulfstream en route to the Florida Derby. Despite all its distance and calendar placement changes the past decade, what we know about this particular two-turn configuration in the Holy Bull is that speed can be deadly with a short run to the first turn and sixteenth pole finish line in play. It's been the return spot of the past two 2-year-old champs, Shanghai Bobby and Hansen, both upset when runner-ups. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Itsmyluckyday continued his early season dominance at GP when he pressed and pounced on Shanghai Bobby in the upper stretch. It was his 2nd major local score in 25 days. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Early season success has not carried over to the classics in the 5 years since this race moved back to January on the calendar (2009-'13). Consider: Ky Derby: Itsmyluckyday (15th, '13), Frac Daddy (16th, '13), Hansen (9th, '12), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, '11), Dialed In (8th '11), Jackson Bend (12th, '10), Homeboykris (16th, '10), West Side Bernie (9th, '09) Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd, '13), Dialed In (4th, '11), Mucho Macho Man (6th, '11), Jackson Bend (3rd, '10), Aikenite (10th, '10) Belmont: Frac Daddy (14th, '13), My Adonis (8th, '12), Mucho Macho Man (7th, '11) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners '13 Itsmyluckyday Trujillo Plesa '12 Algorithms Castellano Pletcher '11 Dialed In Leparoux Zito '10 Winslow Homer Dominguez T. Dutrow '09 Saratoga Sinner Leparoux Kenneally '08 Hey Byrn C Lopez Plesa '07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C Velasquez Tagg '06 Barbaro Prado Matz '05 Closing Argument C Velasquez McLaughlin '04 Second of June C Velasquez Cesare BRIS Fig 106 105 104 95 102 90 103 104 107 109 Last 10 Holy Bull Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Itsmyluckyday 1st '12 Algorithms 1st '11 Dialed In 1st '10 Winslow Homer 1st '09 Saratoga Sinner 1st '08 Hey Byrn 1st '07 Nobiz Like Shobiz 1st '06 Barbaro 1st '05 Closing Argument 2nd '04 Second of June 1st Gulfstream Derby (GP) Allowance (GP) Maiden (CD) Allowance (Pha/Prx) Maiden (Gulfstream) Allowance (GP) Remsen (Aqu) Tropical Park Derby (Crc, T) Delta Jackpot (DeD) What A Pleasure (Crc) Inside the Holy Bull Stakes The ―now‖ horse has beaten the ―name‖ horse the past two years as Itsmyluckyday and Algorithms had the benefit of a recent race at the meet. Countdown for the Holy Bull 98 days until Derby 112 days until Preakness 133 days until Belmont 81 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SAM F. DAVIS February 1, 2014 General Quarters first saluted in the Davis, then went on to G1 Blue Grass glory. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SAM F. DAVIS: Stripped of Kentucky Derby qualifying points this year, the lone local two-turn prep for the Tampa Bay Derby likely will take a step back this spring in quality. It's been a race dominated by Gulfstream raiders in recent seasons, and given Tampa's reputation as a unique surface, footing-wise, those aiming for the Tampa Bay Derby have been more likely to try the Davis first in recent years. Nick Zito first embraced the race in 2004 when it increased to a $100,000 purse, vanning The Cliff's Edge to town. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Falling Sky posted a mild surprise when he wired a modest field in a subpar renewal of the Davis, which has recently been a launching pad for several Triple Crown runners. The win was the lone highlight of the season for Falling Sky, who garnered enough points to make the Kentucky Derby, but finished last of 19. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Davis' has put some numbers in the Derby gate in recent years, but its best alumnus Any Given Saturday, didn't make the TC in 2007. Since '07: Ky Derby: Falling Sky (19th, '13), Prospective (18th, '12), Musket Man (3rd, '09), General Quarters (10th, '09), Big Truck (18th, '08), Smooth Air (11th, '08), Z Humor (14th, '08) Preakness: Schoolyard Dreams (9th, '10), Musket Man (3rd, '09), General Quarters (9th, '09) Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, '10) Derby qualifying points: none STAKES HISTORY BRIS Fig 92 91 94 104 100 96 97 101 92 99 HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes Winners '13 Falling Sky J.Espinoza Terranova '12 Battle Hardened Leparoux Kenneally '11 Brethren Dominguez Pletcher '10 Rule Velazquez Pletcher '09 General Quarters Lopez M. Miller '08 Fierce Wind C. Velasquez Zito '07 Any Given Saturday Velazquez Pletcher '06 Bluegrass Cat Velazquez Pletcher '05 Andromeda's HeroBejarano Zito '04 Kaufy Mate Zimmerman K. Ziadie '13 Falling Sky 1st '12 Battle Hardened 2nd '11 Brethren 1st '10 Rule 1st '09 General Quarters 2nd '08 Fierce Wind 1st '07 Any Given Saturday 2nd '06 Bluegrass Cat 1st '05 Andromeda's Hero 3rd '04 Kaufy Mate 7th Last 10 Sam F. Davis Stakes Winners' Preps Allowance (Tam) MSW (GP) Allowance (CD) Delta Jackpot (DeD) Pasco (Tam) Allowance (GP) Kentucky Jockey Club (CD) Remsen (Aqu) Allowance (GP) Pasco (Tam) Inside the Sam F. Davis Stakes With the exception of Pletcher's four winners, every other winner of the Davis ran in Florida in their prior start. While entering off a win isn't a necessity, nine straight winners have hit the board in their prior start, so showing good prior form is a plus. Countdown for the Sam F. Davis 91 days until Derby 105 days until Preakness 126 days until Belmont 82 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. WITHERS STAKES February 1, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Revolutionary"s amazing 2013 rail display put him on the Triple Crown trail . KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WITHERS: Second leg of NYRA's three route preps for the Wood Memorial, the 1 1/16 miles Withers follows January's Jerome as another repositioned fixture on the calendar. Only the past two years has seen this race in February, and it's lured high-quality winners like Alpha and Revolutionary as a rising race of importance. Recent editions have featured several holdovers from the main January NYRA stakes, along with rising class players from the meet – few shippers outside the Mid-Atlantic make the trip. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Last year's winner, Revolutionary, used the race as a springboard to much bigger and better things, including a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby after scoring the Louisiana Derby. Trip note fans will remember his nightmare, stop-and-start run, where he remarkably got up in the final strides to snag a hard-to-believe win. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: When in April, the Withers springboarded horses like Bernardini and Scrappy T to strong Preakness showings. In 2012-'13, as a February prep: Ky Derby: Alpha (12th, '12), Revolutionary (3rd, '13) Preakness: none Belmont: Revolutionary (5th, '13) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Withers Winners '13 Revolutionary '12 Alpha Race not held '11 '10 Afleet Again '09 Mr. Fantasy '08 Harlem Rocker '07 Divine Park '06 Bernardini '05 Scrappy T '04 Medallist '03 Spite The Devil Castellano Dominguez BRIS Fig 96 100 109 103 96 97 110 106 114 98 Pletcher McLaughlin Reid McLaughlin Pletcher McLaughlin Castellano Albertrani Arroyo Bailes J. Chavez A. Jerkens L. Chavez A. Jerkens 1st 1st Mariano Migliore Coa Garcia Last 10 Withers Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Revolutionary '12 Alpha Race not held '11 '10 Afleet Again '09 Mr. Fantasy '08 Harlem Rocker '07 Divine Park '06 Bernardini '05 Scrappy T '04 Medallist '03 Spite The Devil MSW (Aqu) Count Fleet (Aqu) Gotham (Aqu) Gotham (Aqu) ALW (GP) ALW (Kee) MSW (GP) Wood Memorial (Aqu) ALW (GP) Wood Memorial (Aqu) 10th 3rd 1st 1st 1st 3rd 2nd 8th Inside the Withers Stakes Take any trends you find with a grain of salt, as prior to 2012 this was a 1-turn race in April. That said, local horses have run well and anyone for Todd Pletcher or Kiaran McLaughlin merit respect. Countdown for the Withers 91 days until Derby 105 days until Preakness 126 days until Belmont 83 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. BOB LEWIS February 8, 2014 We salute the late Bob Lewis, and his wife, Beverly -- classy owners/sportsmen. Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE BOB LEWIS: The former Santa Catalina Stakes offers two turns and 1 1/16 miles to prove your mettle, and is far enough from December's G1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood and November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile to be an effective starting out point for big-timers. And with a Dec. 26 annual start date to the local meet, the Lewis becomes a haven for impressive, early-season Maiden winners to be tested. But the race historically has lacked depth of challengers. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Flashback was the great gray hope of the southern California circuit early on in the '13 campaign and entered this off an easy Maiden win. Last year's Lewis drew only four entrants, and Flashback, as the even-money favorite, made short work of his foes with a 6 1/4-length win. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Ferdinand and I'll Have Another are the most recognizable winners of this prep to taste spring success. Its 2009 renewal, clearly its best, boasted Pioneeerof The Nile, I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, who won SA Derby, Wood and Ark Derby. From 1993-2013, its TC impact has been sparse: Ky Derby: I'll Have Another (1st, '12), Pioneeerof The Nile (2nd, '08), Charismatic (1st, '99) Preakness: I'll Have Another (1st, '12), Charismatic (1st, '99) Belmont: None. HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Lewis Memorial Winners '13 Flashback '12 I'll Have Another '11 Anthony's Cross '10 Caracortado '09 Pioneerof the Nile '08 Crown of Thorns '07 Great Hunter '06 Brother Derek '05 Declan's Moon '04 St Averil Leparoux Baffert Gutierrez O'Neill BRIS Fig 95 102 93 96 (syn) 96 (syn) 94 (syn) 100 102 100 102 Rosario Atkinson Gomez Espinoza Nakatani Solis Espinoza T. Baze Harty Machowsky Baffert Mandella O'Neill Hendricks Ellis Becerra Last10 Bob Lewis MemorialWinners' Preps '13 Flashback '12 I'll Have Another '11 Anthony's Cross '10 Caracortado '09 Pioneerof the Nile ‗08 Crown of Thorns '07 Great Hunter '06 Brother Derek '05 Declan's Moon ‗04 St Averil 1st 6th 3rdt 1st 1st 1st 3rd 1st 1st 2nd Maiden (BHP) Hopeful (SAR) Sham (SA) Cal Breeders Champ (SA) CashCall Futurity (Hol) Maiden (SA) BC Juvenile (CD) San Rafael (SA) CashCall Futurity (Hol) CashCall Futurity (Hol) Inside the Bob Lewis Memorial Stakes Even early in the season, it's rare to see a Lewis winner rise in class like Flashback a year ago against a very light field. Eight of the last 10 exited serious stakes preps. Tactical speed is important in early season routes, especially on the west coast. Countdown for the Bob Lewis Memorial 91 days until Derby 105 days until Preakness 126 days until Belmont 84 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. EL CAMINO REAL February 15, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Jerry Hollendorfer is loaded with 3yos in 2014, and seeks his first El Camino Real Derby win since "09. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE EL CAMINO REAL: Northern California's only graded stakes en route to the Triple Crown, the El Camino Real Derby gets its field from the listed California Derby at Golden Gate, from class risers at the meet and a smattering of second-tier Santa Anita sophomores. It's among the earliest 1 1/8 miles distance tests of the season and the mileage here often gives its winners a sense of belonging on the trail as trips extend. It's the only Triple Crown trail race in North America on the Tapeta surface (UAE Derby in Dubai is as well). MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dice Flavor travelled to the Bay Area off a thirdplace showing in a turf Allowance at Santa Anita and responded with a 3 3/4-length triumph. He was far back early, took command in the stretch and was a going-away winner. Favored Manando, third in the Sham prior, set the pace and wound up last. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Charismatic was second here en route to his Derby / Preakness run of 1999. And he was part of an exceptional run for this race that included Tabasco Cat, Casual Lies and Cavonnier in the 1990s. Since going synthetic in 2009, here's the ledger: Ky Derby: Chocolate Candy (5th, '09), Comma to the Top (19th, '11), Daddy Nose Best (10th, '12) Preakness: Daddy Nose Best (9th, '12) Belmont: Chocolate Candy (9th, '09) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 El Camino Real Winners '13 Dice Flavor Valdivia Gallagher '12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen '11 Silver Medallion R. Baze Asmussen '10 Connemara R. Baze Pletcher '09 Chocolate Candy R. Baze Hollendorfer '08 Autism Awareness Contreras Vallejo '07 Bwana Bull R. Baze Hollendorfer '06 Cause to Believe R. Baze Hollendorfer '05 Uncle Denny R. Baze Becerra '04 Kilgowan Rollins Arterburn '13 Dice Flavor 3rd '12 Daddy Nose Best 1st '11 Silver Medallion 1st '10 Connemara 2nd '09 Chocolate Candy 1st '08 Autism Awareness 1st '07 Bwana Bull 1st '06 Cause to Believe 2nd '05 Uncle Denny 4th '04 Kilgowan 4th BRIS Fig 93 92 91 85 88 94 (dirt) 93 (dirt) 99 (dirt) 97 (dirt) 94 (dirt) Last10 El Camino Real Derby Winners' Preps Allowance (SA) Eddie Logan (SA) Eddie Logan (SA) California Derby (GG) California Derby (GG) Maiden (GG) California Derby (GG) San Miguel (SA) Sham (SA) Golden State Mile (GG) Inside the El Camino Real Derby After winning six ECRs in seven years, Russell Baze has gone ―cold‖ losing two straight. The last three winners all exited Santa Anita turf miles, successfully stretching out in distance and handling the surface change. Countdown for the El Camino Real Derby 77 days until Derby 91 days until Preakness 112 days until Belmont 85 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SAN VICENTE February 16, 2014 The Factor began Baffert"s current run of 3 straight San Vicente scores. Derby qualifying points: none STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners '13 Shakin It Up Flores '12 Drill Garcia '11 The Factor Garcia '10 Sidney's Candy Talamo '09 Evita Argentina Gomez '08 Georgie Boy Bejarano '07 Noble Court Nakatani '06 Too Much Bling Gomez '05 Fusaichi Rock Star Flores '04 Imperialism Espinoza '13 Shakin It Up 3rd '12 Drill 5th '11 The Factor 1st '10 Sidney's Candy 4th '09 Evita Argentina 2nd '08 Georgie Boy 1st '07 Noble Court 3rd '06 Too Much Bling 1st '05 Fusaichi Rock Star 4th '04 Imperialism 5th Baffert Baffert Baffert Sadler Sadler Walsh Sadler Baffert Baffert Mulhall KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SAN VICENTE: The Bob Baffert Bowl ought to be this race's name as the white-haired one has owned it for the past decade and a half. Eight wins in the San Vicente since 1997, including the last three in a row, make this 7-furlong sprint his personal stomping grounds. Its mid-February placement on the calendar and 7furlong distance make the San Vicente an eclectic mix of sprinters and come-backing from vacation routers. The last four editions mustered 4-7 entries. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Shakin It Up's win marked the third straight in the race for trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled three of the six horses involved in this renewal. Shake It Up saved ground, rallied well into the stretch and beat fellow closer Treasury Bill. Baffert stablemate Belvin finished last at even money. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Silver Charm used the return sprint here to launch his Derby-Preakness campaign of 1997. In the past decade, 2003-'13, here's the diminished run-down: Ky Derby: Creative Cause (5th, '12), Sidney's Candy (17th, '10), Sinister Minister (16th, '06), Don't Get Mad (4th, '05), Imperialism (3rd, ‗04) Preakness: Creative Cause (3rd, '12), Sway Away (12th, '11), Imperialism (5th, '04) Belmont: None. BRIS Fig 92 103 104 95 93 106 90 98 97 99 Last 10 San Vicente Stakes Winners' Preps Hollywood Prevue (Hol) San Pedro (SA) Maiden (SA) Allowance (SA) Santa Ynez (SA) Del Mar Futurity (Dmr) San Miguel (SA) San Miguel (SA) Cowdin (Bel) Tropical Park Derby (Crc) Inside the San Vicente Stakes The Baffert/Sadler Show, the San Vicente has been won by those two barns in eight of the last nine years. Six of the last eight winners exited a prep race at the meet. As with many sprints, it's hard to group wins, and it's no surprise seven of the last 10 winners exited defeats. Countdown for the San Vicente Stakes 76 days until Derby 90 days until Preakness 111 days until Belmont BET THE SAN VICNTE AT: 86 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SOUTHWEST February 17, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY Archarcharch was the last non-Baffert winner of the Southwest in 2011. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST: Oaklawn's first two-turn graded stakes in its Arkansas Derby lead-up has become a Presidents Day Monday holiday fixture. The Smarty Jones kicks off the local preps as a listed event. Last year's Southwest extended to 1 1/16 miles from 1 mile, making it the same distance as March's Rebel, but more importantly it now provides for the traditional finish line to be in play and not the 1/16th-pole finish line that is employed in mile races. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The Southwest has become a favorite of trainer Bob Baffert, who won the '13 edition with Super Ninety Nine after winning the split divisions of the '12 edition with Castaway and Secret Circle. Super Ninety Nine's crushing, 11-length win was one of the most impressive in the history of the race. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: While producing eventual stars like Will Take Charge, Caleb's Posse and Flat Out, its big-time influence on the Triple Crown is traced to 2004: Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, '04), Steppenwolfer (3rd, '06), Hard Spun (2nd, '07), Denis of Cork (3rd, '08) Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st, '04), Hard Spun (3rd, '07) Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, '04), Steppenwolfer (4th, '06), Hard Spun (4th, '07), Denis of Cork (2nd, '08) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: split divisions 2012 Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners BRIS Fig '13 Super Ninety Nine Bejarano Baffert '12 Castaway Bejarano Baffert '12 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert '11 Archarcharch Court Fires '10 Conveyance Garcia Baffert '09 Old Fashioned Dominguez L. Jones '08 Denis of Cork Albarado D. Carroll '07 Teuflesberg Elliott Sanders '06 Lawyer Ron McKee R. Holthus '05 Greater Good McKee R. Holthus '04 Smarty Jones Elliott Jo. Servis 101 97 103 93 102 97 99 102 99 95 101 Last 10 Southwest Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Super Ninety Nine 1st '12 Castaway 1st '12 Secret Circle 2nd '11 Archarcharch 4th '10 Conveyance 1st '09 Old Fashioned 1st '08 Denis of Cork 1st '07 Teuflesberg 3rd 06 Lawyer Ron 1st '05 Greater Good 1st '04 Smarty Jones 1st Allowance (SA) Maiden (SA) Sham (SA) Smarty Jones (OP) San Rafael (SA) Remsen (OP) Allowance (FG) LeComte (FG) Risen Star (LaD) Ky Jockey Club (CD) Count Fleet (Aqu) Inside the Southwest Stakes A mile is a race for the brilliant, and eight of the last 10 victors came off of winning preps. Early season OP starters have been vulnerable wheeling back. Countdown for the Southwest Stakes 75 days until Derby 89 days until Preakness 110 days until Belmont 87 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH February 22, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY Union Rags launched his 2012 Belmont-winning season in the FoY. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE FoY: The first ―biggie‖ of the trail, big-time horsemen circle this date. From 2005-'09, the Fountain of Youth distance made it a square peg in a round hole on the schedule – toyed between a too-far, too-soon 1 1/8 miles and a one-turn mile that wasn't demanding enough. Gulfstream moved its finish poles for 1 1/16 miles races two years ago, and that's solved some of the distance quandaries, but the configuration favors inside speed to a fault. Super horses like Orb and Union Rags overcame it. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Eventual Kentucky Derby winner Orb took advantage of a suicidal pace to wear down the undefeated favorite Violence in an effort that gained him national attention for the first time. While the effort was a springboard to glory for Orb, Violence, who was considered Todd Pletcher's best Kentucky Derby hope, was injured and soon retired. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Even losing stars like Eskendereya and Quality Road to injuries, the FoY remains stout. Since ‗10: Ky Derby: Orb (1st, '13), Union Rags (7th, '12), Shackleford (4th, '11), Soldat (11th, '11), Ice Box (2nd '10), Jackson Bend (12th, '10) Preakness: Orb (4th, '13), Shackleford (1st, '11), Jackson Bend (3rd, '10), Aikenite (10th, '10), Pleasant Prince (11th, '10) Belmont: Orb (3rd, '13), Union Rags, (1st, '12), Ice Box (8th, '10) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Fountain of Youth Winners '13 Orb Velazquez '12 Union Rags Leparoux '11 Soldat Garcia '10 Eskendereya Velazquez '09 Quality Road Velazquez '08 Cool Coal Man Desormeaux '07 Scat Daddy Velazquez '06 First Samurai Prado '05 High Fly Bailey '04 Read The Footnotes Bailey '13 Orb 1st '12 Union Rags 2nd '11 Soldat 1st '10 Eskendereya 1st '09 Quality Road 2nd '08 Cool Coal Man 1st '07 Scat Daddy 3rd '06 First Samurai 2nd '05 High Fly 3rd '04 Read The Footnotes 1st McGaughey Matz McLaughlin Pletcher Pletcher Zito Pletcher Brothers Zito Violette BRIS Fig 102 103 104 103 110 100 101 102 105 108 Last 10 Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners' Preps AOC (GP) BC Juvenile (CD) ALW (GP) ALW (GP) ALW (GP) ALW (GP) Holy Bull (GP) Hutcheson (GP) Holy Bull (GP) Remsen (Aqu) Inside the Fountain of Youth Stakes For all the big name winners—and there's been plenty—it's somewhat surprising to see that many of them exited the Allowance ranks. A race over the local oval seems preferred, and eight of the past 10 winners were 4th or better at the pace call. Countdown for the Fountain of Youth 70 days until Derby 84 days until Preakness 105 days until Belmont 89 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. RISEN STAR February 22, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY Macho As Ever: "11 Risen Star champ was on top of the world in "13. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE RISEN STAR: The Fair Grounds' brass has realized the five-week mentality of today's horsemen, and you see the track's middle leg of its 3-year-old series placed exactly five weeks after the Lecomte and five weeks before the Louisiana Derby. Spacing matters. The Risen Star's 1 1/16 miles distance around two turns also is smack-dab in the middle between the Lecomte and La Derby. The Risen Star competes with the Southwest, run the previous Monday, and the same-day Fountain of Youth for horses, but seven straight years has boasted fields of 10-13. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: An ankle injury sidelined Ive Struck a Nerve two weeks after his shocking 135-1 win. Last in a 12horse field after a half-mile, he commenced a furious, six-wide rally to get up by a nose. Eventual Belmont and Preakness winners Palace Malace and Oxbox wound up 3rd and 4th, respectively. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: 2011 winner Mucho Macho Man went on to run 3rd in the Ky Derby and became a BC Classic winner at age 5. But it's the ‗13 Risen Star that featured no less than four runners who placed in Triple Crown races and won two-thirds of the crown. In just 2013: Ky Derby: Golden Soul (2nd, '13), Normandy Invasion (4th, '13), Mylute (5th, '13), Oxbow (6th, '13), Palace Malice (12th, '13) Preakness: Oxbow (1st, '13), Mylute (3rd, '13) Belmont: Palace Malice (1st, '13), Oxbow (2nd, '13), Golden Soul (9th, '13) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Risen Star Stakes Winners '13 Ive Struck a Nerve Graham '12 El Padrino Castellano '11 Mucho Macho Man Maragh '10 Discreetly Mine Castellano '09 Friesan Fire Saez '08 Pyro Bridgmohan '07 Notional Albarado '06 Lawyer Ron McKee '05 Scipion Stevens '04 Gradepoint Albarado '13 Ive Struck a Nerve 4th '12 El Padrino 1st '11 Mucho Macho Man 4th '10 Discreetly Mine 4th '09 Friesan Fire 1st '08 Pyro 2nd '07 Notional 1st '06 Lawyer Ron 1st '05 Scipion 3rd '04 Gradepoint 1st BRIS Fig 99 101 97 97 100 96 100 105 95 98 Desormeaux Pletcher Ritvo Pletcher L. Jones Asmussen O'Neill R. Holthus Biancone Howard Last10 Risen Star StakesWinners' Preps Lecomte (FG) Allowance (GP) Holy Bull (GP) Spectacular Bid (GP) Lecomte (FG) BC Juvenile (Mth) San Rafael (SA) Peninsula Diamond Jo (EvD) Allowance (SA) Allowance (FG) Inside the Risen Star Stakes Last year's big upsetter Ive Struck A Nerve was a rare Lecomte alumnus to win the Risen Star. There's been a telling lack of class risers from the FG meet since Gradepoint's '04 win. The out of town contingent has done well, especially those ducking a big hitter or stablemate in the Fountain of Youth. Countdown for the Risen Star Stakes 70 days until Derby 84 days until Preakness 105 days until Belmont 90 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. MINE THAT BIRD DERBY February 22, 2014 Mine That Bird also has his own movie "50-1" in theaters this spring. Derby qualifying points: none SEE STAKES HISTORY BELOW HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Mine That Bird Winners '13 Dry Summer '12 Isn't He Clever '11 Fusa Code '10 Storming Saint '09 Scorewithcater '08 Poni Colada '07 Takedown '06 Indy Wildcat '05 Southern Africa '04 Go Kitty Go Madeira Marr Medellin Dominguez J. ShepherdAsmussen Contreras Dominguez M. Baze O'Neill Juarez Asmussen Murphy Asmussen M. Baze Capestro Gomez Puhich Fuentes Millar 1st 4th 3rd 3rd 1st 6th 1st 3rd 7th 2nd KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE MINE THAT BIRD: The former Borderland Derby is the only major local route prep for the rich Sunland Park Derby. At 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, the Mine That Bird Derby gives hopefuls a chance to acclimate to the extreme altitude and dust conditions at Sunland Park that can be troublesome for some shippers. But without graded status or Kentucky Derby qualifying points, as well as competition in the region from the sameday Risen Star, a second-tier field is expected. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Dry Summer, fourth in January's Sham at Santa Anita before relocating to New Mexico, went into the 2013 Mine That Bird off an Allowance win at Sunland. The 6-5 favorite responded with a 1 1/2-length win over Show Some Magic, denying trainer Henry Dominguez back-to-back wins in this race. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: It almost begins and ends with Mine That Bird, who was 2nd to Scorewithcater in the 2009 edition when named the Borderland Derby. The 2005 renewal produced a Belmont Stakes starter as well as eventual BC Sprint winner Thor's Echo. Ky Derby: Mine That Bird (1st, '09) Preakness: Mine That Bird (2nd, '09) Belmont: Mine That Bird (3rd, '09), Southern Africa (8th, '05) BRIS Fig 87 91 88 85 88 92 85 90 99 93 Last 10 Mine That Bird Derby Winners' Preps '13 Dry Summer ‗12 Isn't He Clever '11 Fusa Code '10 Storming Saint '09 Scorewithcater '08 Poni Colada '07 Takedown '06 Indy Wildcat '05 Southern Africa '04 Go Kitty Go Allowance (Sun) Robert B. Lewis (SA) Maiden (SA) Riley Allison Futurity (Sun) Allowance (SA) Smarty Jones (OP) Allowance (Sun) Maiden (SA) Sham (SA) Allowance (Sun) Inside the Mine That Bird Derby The last three winners came out of Cali, though Dry Summer wintered at Sunland after a 2YO campaign out west. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won it five times, including three of the last seven editions. Don't be afraid of a class rise with six of the last 10 winners coming out of Maiden or Allowance preps. Countdown for the Mine That Bird Derby 70 days until Derby 84 days until Preakness 105 days until Belmont 91 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. GOTHAM STAKES March 1, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY I Want Revenge & Joe Talamo came east in 2009 and impressed at the Big A. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE GOTHAM: For much of its history, the Gotham was a one-turn mile held in late March. Beginning in 2006, it was moved to early March and extended to two turns at 1 1/16 miles on the inner-dirt track. Given NYRA's repositioning of races like the Jerome and Withers, the Gotham no longer must serve as a sole Wood Memorial provider. But its two-turn configuration and solo spot on the national calendar this weekend for a dirt-route prep offer some attraction. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The rapidly improving Vyjack showed a new dimension when he closed stoutly from off the pace to win going away in a breakthrough effort to remain undefeated in four starts. Heavily favored Overanalyze didn't fire in his seasonal bow, but did come back to win the Arkansas Derby in his next start for Todd Pletcher. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Red Bullet's 2000 Preakness and Easy Goer's 1989 Belmont comprise the only Gotham winners to post scores in the TC since Secretariat. Since 2010: Ky Derby: Vyjack (18th, '13), Overanalyze (11th, '13), Hansen (9th, '12), Done Talking (14th, '12), Stay Thirsty (12th, '11), Awesome Act (19th, '10). Preakness: Tiger Walk (8th, '12), Pretension (11th, '12), Norman Asbjornson (11th, '11), Yawanna Twist (4th, '10). Belmont: Vyjack (8th, '13), Overanalyze (7th, '13), My Adonis (8th, '12), Stay Thirsty (2nd, '11). HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners '13 Vyjack Rosario '12 Hansen Dominguez '11 Stay Thirsty Dominguez '10 Awesome Act Leparoux '09 I Want Revenge Talamo '08 Visionaire Lezcano '07 Cowtown Cat Dominguez '06 Like Now Jara '05 Survivalist Migliore '04 Saratoga County Castellano '13 Vyjack 1st '12 Hansen 2nd '11 Stay Thirsty 5th '10 Awesome Act 4th '09 I Want Revenge 3rd '08 Visionaire 3rd '07 Cowtown Cat 3rd '06 Like Now 1st '05 Survivalist 2nd '04 Saratoga County 3rd Rodriguez Maker Pletcher Noseda Mullins Matz Pletcher McLaughlin McGaughey Weaver BRIS Fig 99 105 95 102 113 100 96 108 101 107 Last 10 Gotham Stakes Winners' Preps Jerome (Aqu) Holy Bull (GP) BC Juvenile (CD) BC Juvenile Turf (SA) Bob Lewis (SA) Risen Star (FG) Swale (GP) Capossela (Aqu) ALW (GP) Hutcheson (GP) Inside the Gotham Stakes With the exception of last year's winner, Vyjack, the Gotham has been a playground for classy out-oftown shippers and/or returnees. While local experience over the track never hurts, class and proven stakes types usually have prevailed in the Gotham, many coming off losses vs. tougher. Countdown for the Gotham Stakes 63 days until Derby 77 days until Preakness 98 days until Belmont 92 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. PALM BEACH March 1, 2014 Derby qualifying points: none STAKES HISTORY Dale Romans made the Palm Beach a path to Louisville with Paddy O"Prado. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE PALM BEACH: This 1 1/8 miles turf race demands our attention even if it lacks Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The G3 stakes has become a popular one-off stop on the trail as its recent alumni have targeted Keeneland's G1 Blue Grass on Polytrack next in bids to become TC contenders. It's also conceivable to wheel back in Turfway's Spiral in three weeks' time if the connections opt that route. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Budding turf runner Rydilluc joined the Triple Crown trail with his win his powerful 3 ½-length win over eventual Kentucky Derby 9th-place finisher Charming Kitten. He used the Palm Beach as a springboard to Keeneland's Blue Grass, when he was a tiring 4th that ended his Derby aspirations. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Two high-profile horsemen in recent years have caught the Palm Beach bug as a useful road to the TC, owner Ken Ramsey and trainer Dale Romans. Since 2010, Romans has had the upper hand with Dullahan and Paddy O'Prado: Ky Derby: Charming Kitten (9th, '13), Dullahan (3rd, '12), Paddy O'Prado (3rd, '10), Dean's Kitten (14th, '10) Preakness: Paddy O'Prado (6th, '10) Belmont: Dullahan (7th, '12) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Palm Beach Stakes Winners '13 Rydilluc '12 Howe Great '11 Joes Blazing Aaron '10 Paddy O'Prado '09 El Crespo '08 Sporting Art '07 Duveen '06 Go Between '05 Interpatation '04 Kitten's Joy Contessa Velazquez Motion Bocachica A. Hunter Castanon Romans Castellano Arnold Castellano Clement Guidry Romans Prado Mott Turner Barbara Bailey Romans 1st 1st 1st 3rd 9th 2nd 1st 1st 1st 1st Prado BRIS Fig 89 99 91 98 90 91 91 96 91 95 Last 10 Palm Beach Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Rydilluc '12 How Great '11 Joes Blazing Aaron '10 Paddy O'Prado '09 El Crespo '08 Sporting Art '07 Duveen '06 Go Between '05 Interpatation '04 Kitten's Joy AOC (GP) Kitten's Joy (GP) CLM(GP) MSW (GP) Holy Bull (GP) ALW (GP) MSW (GP) Remsen (Aqu) MSW (GP) Tropical Park Derby (Crc) Inside the Palm Beach Stakes A race over the track seems like a good idea, as eight of the last 10 winners exit a local prep, though they have comes from all types of races. Tactical runners have been preferred of late with the past five winners being 1st or 2nd at the pace call. Countdown for the Palm Beach Stakes 63 days until Derby 77 days until Preakness 98 days until Belmont BET THE PALM BEACH AT: 93 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. TAMPA BAY DERBY March 8, 2014 Street Sense (inside) and Any Given Saturday rocked the" 07 TB Derby. Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners '13 Verrazano '12 Prospective '11 Watch Me Go '10 Odysseus '09 Musket Man '08 Big Truck '07 Street Sense '06 Deputy Glitters '05 Sun King '04 Limehouse Velazquez Contreras KEY INGREDIENTS TO TAMPA BAY DERBY: It's no coincidence that the meteoric rise of the Tampa Bay Derby coincided directly with the reconfiguration of the oval at Gulfstream Park and GP's lack of middle-distance races for a few years. Horsemen flocked to Tampa in search of that 1 1/16 miles, two-turn, midseason prep that could set them up better for 1 1/8 miles in a final Derby tune-up. From 2005-'09 that Florida void became a boon for the Tampa Bay Derby, which lured horses like Sun King, Blue-grass Cat, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and champion War Pass. Since then, it's been a much softer race. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Verrazano confirmed his future book Derby favorite's status by passing his first two-turn and graded stakes test with a sharp victory over subsequent Blue Grass winner Java's War. The win turned the page for a Todd Pletcher barn that had lost with five Tampa Bay Derby favorites since ‗06. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: You have to look at this race from 2010-present because of the drain the Fountain of Youth puts on it since moving back to 1-1/16 miles & 2 turns. Since: Ky Derby: Verrazano (14th, '13), Java's War (13th, '13), Falling Sky (19th, '13), Prospective (18th, '12), Watch Me Go (18th, '11), Super Saver (1st, '10) Preakness: Cozzetti (7th, '12), Super Saver (8th, '10), Schoolyard Dreams (9th, '10) Belmont: Uptowncharlybrown (12th, '10) BRIS Fig 100 95 95 100 93 99 105 106 100 100 L. Garcia Maragh Centeno Coa Borel Lezcano Prado Day 1st 2nd 3rd 1st 3rd 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 1st Pletcher Casse O'Connell Albertrani Ryan Tagg Nafzger Albertrani Zito Pletcher Last 10 Tampa Bay Derby Winners' Preps '13 Verrazano '12 Prospective '11 Watch Me Go '10 Odysseus '09 Musket Man '08 Big Truck '07 Street Sense '06 Deputy Glitters '05 Sun King '04 Limehouse Allowance (GP) Sam F. Davis (Tam) Sam F. Davis (Tam) Allowance (Tam) Sam F. Davis (Tam) Sam F. Davis (Tam) BC Juvenile (CD) Sam F. Davis (Tam) Allowance (GP) Hutcheson (GP) Inside the Tampa Bay Derby While it's no surprise that the local Sam F. Davis is the most important prep (five of the lat eight winners exit it), it's worth noting that none of the Tampa Bay Derby winners actually won that race. Nine of the last 10 winners prepped in Florida with come-backing Street Sense the exception. Countdown for the Tampa Bay Derby 56 days until Derby 70 days until Preakness 91 days until Belmont 94 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SAN FELIPE March 8, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY Point Given used the San Felipe en route to "01 Preakness/Belmont wins. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SAN FELIPE: Eight weeks out from the first Saturday in May, its placement suits perfectly the horsemen who want to put four weeks between races. California remains insulated with few shippers and this race sits three weeks beyond the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate. The San Felipe often provides rematches of what we've seen at the meet, along with the annual rising Maiden / Allowance potential stars. Those ―forced rematches‖ have proven a galvanizing influence on its alumni, who have enjoyed success. A ―wow‖ performance is a San Felipe norm. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Hear the Ghost bulled his way through traffic and outfinished even-money Flashback. Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents was 4th in this one. Unfortunately, Hear the Ghost was sidelined after the San Felipe and didn't reappear until November. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Names like Affirmed and Sunday Silence dot the winners' roll call of this race in yesteryear. More recent, stellar alumni highlights since ‗00 include: Ky Derby: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st, '00), Giacomo (1st, '05), Pioneerof The Nile (2nd, '09), Bodemeister (2nd, '12) Preakness: Fusaichi Pegasus (2nd, '00), Point Given (1st, '01), Giacomo (3rd, '05), Bodemeister (2nd, '12), Creative Cause (3rd, '12) Belmont: Commendable (1 , '00), Point Given (1st, '01), Medaglia d'Oro (2nd, '02) st HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners '13 Hear the Ghost '12 Creative Cause '11 Premier Pegasus '10 Sidney's Candy '09 Pioneerof the Nile '08 Georgie Boy '07 Cobalt Blue '06 A.P. Warrior '05 Consolidator '04 Preachinatthebar Nakatani Hollendorfer Rosario Harrington A.Quinonez Cho Talamo Sadler Gomez Baffert M. Baze Walsh Espinoza O'Neill Nakatani Shirreffs Bejarano Lukas Santiago Baffert BRIS Fig 99 102 100 93 (syn) 92 (syn) 95 (syn) 98 101 103 101 Last 10 San Felipe Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Hear the Ghost 2nd '12 Creative Cause 3rd '11 Premier Pegasus 1st '10 Sidney's Candy 1st '09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st '08 Georgie Boy 1st '07 Cobalt Blue 1st '06 A.P. Warrior 1st '05 Consolidator 4th '04 Preachinatthebar 3rd San Pedro (SA) San Vicente (SA) Hollywood Prevue (Hol) San Vicente (SA) Robert B. Lewis (SA) San Vicente (SA) Allowance (SA) El Camino Real Derby (BM) San Vicente (SA) Sham (SA) Inside the San Felipe Stakes Six straight, and nine of the last 10, winners exited top four finishes in stakes races. Surprisingly, this has been a bad spot for Bob Baffert, who has won this race just once in the last nine editions with several short-priced losers. Four straight winners (six of last seven) exited sprint preps. Countdown for the San Felipe Stakes 56 days until Derby 70 days until Preakness 91 days until Belmont 95 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. REBEL STAKES March 15, 2014 Lookin At Lucky went on to 2010 Preakness glory. Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Rebel Winners '13 Will Take Charge Court Lukas '12 Secret Circle Bejarano Baffert '11 The Factor Garcia Baffert '10 Lookin At Lucky Gomez Baffert '09 Win Willy Berry M. Robertson '08 Sierra Sunset Emigh Bonde '07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen '06 Lawyer Ron McKee Holthus ‗05 Greater Good McKee Holthus '04 Smarty Jones Elliott Jo.Servis '03 Crowned King Rennie McKeever KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE REBEL: The winners' roll includes Smarty Jones, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Lookin At Lucky, Will Take Charge, The Factor, and Secret Circle since '04. The Rebel sits four weeks in front of the Arkansas Derby, which gives horsemen seven weeks until Ky Derby Day and a perfect, two-turn, 1 1/16 miles tune-up vs. a big field. The seven-week time frame is very important – it forces trainers to ready their charges on three weeks' rest after two big starts. It's no coincidence that the Rebel has produced FIVE Preakness winners since ‗04 following the Crown's quickest turn-around. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Will Take Charge rallied for a head victory over D. Wayne Lukas stablemate Oxbow. He came from mid-pack, weaved through traffic with a half-mile left and wore down the eventual Preakness winner. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Rebel alumni have been strong in all TC races since ‗04, but have peaked on Preakess Day. Consider: Ky Derby: Smarty Jones (1st, '04), Afleet Alex (3rd, '05), Steppenwolfer (3rd, '06), Curlin (3rd, '07). Preakness: Smarty Jones (1st, '04), Afleet Alex (1st, '05), Curlin (1st, '07), Lookin At Lucky (1st, '10), Oxbow (1st, '13). Belmont: Smarty Jones (2nd, '04), Afleet Alex (1st, '05), Curlin (2nd, '07), Anak Nakal (3rd, '08), Atigun (3rd, '12), Oxbow (2nd, '13). BRIS Fig 101 97 106 102 104 103 101 98 101 109 95 Last10 Rebel Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Will Take Charge 6th ‗12 Secret Circle 1st '11 The Factor 1st '10 Lookin At Lucky 1st '09 Win Willy 1st '08 Sierra Sunset 2nd ‗07 Curlin 1st '06 Lawyer Ron 1st ‗05 Greater Good 1st '04 Smarty Jones 1st Southwest (OP) Southwest (OP) San Vicente (SA) Cash Call Futurity (Hol) Allowance (OP) Southwest (OP) Maiden (GP) Southwest (OP) Southwest (OP) Southwest (OP) Inside the Rebel Stakes The Southwest Stakes has produced six of the last 10 Rebel winners, including two straight. Will Take Charge was a rare rebound winner as eight of the previous nine exited prep wins. History shows it's about locally prepped runners or a rare Californian. Countdown for the Rebel 49 days until Derby 63 days until Preakness 84 days until Belmont 96 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SPIRAL STAKES March 22, 2014 Animal Kingdom made the turf-to-Polytrack-to-dirt surface change by winning the 2011 Spiral en route to Kentucky Derby roses. Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Spiral Winners '13 Black Onyx Bravo Breen '12 Went the Day WellVelazquez Motion '11 Animal Kingdom Garcia Motion '10 Dean's Kitten Velasquez Maker '09 Hold Me Back Dsrmeaux Mott '08 Adriano Prado Motion '07 Hard Spun Pino L. Jones '06 With a City Blanc Maker '05 Flower Alley Chavez Pletcher '04 Sinister G P. Toscano J. Toscano KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SPIRAL: Six weeks from Kentucky Derby Day, the timing of the Spiral has made it an inconvenient prep race for those pursuing the first Saturday in May. It sits too far out for some to use as a final tune-up, and leaves too little time to squeeze in two preps for some horsemen's modern thinking. But it does offer the Bluegrass State's first qualifying points on the road to Churchill at a legitimate 1 1/8 miles distance. The Spiral's Preakness impact has been a strong one, even since the Polytrack surface debuted in 2006. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Black Onyx came off a turf Allowance win at Gulfstream and rallied to score in the Spiral. He went on to train toward the Kentucky Derby, but suffered an ankle injury in a morning drill. The Spiral featured an evenly matched field of 12 that included runners from six different last prep locales. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: From 1990-'93, the Spiral enjoyed its heyday with consecutive TC race winners Summer Squall, Hansel, Lil E Tee & Prairie Bayou having won first in Florence. But things went cold from '94-'05, so let's examine the highlights of the Poly era, '06-present. Ky Derby: Hard Spun (2nd, ‗07), Animal Kingdom (1st, ‗11), Went the Day Well (4th, '12) Preakness: Hemingway's Key (3rd, '06), Hard Spun (3rd, ‗07), Macho Again (2nd, '08), Animal Kingdom (2nd, '08) Belmont: Hard Spun (4th, ‗07) BRIS Fig 96 103 97 101 101 101 106 101 98 (dirt) 99 (dirt) Last 10 Spiral Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Black Onyx 1st '12 Went the Day Well1st '11 Animal Kingdom 2nd '10 Dean's Kitten 2nd '09 Hold Me Back 5th '08 Adriano 9th '07 Hard Spun 4th '06 With a City 8th '05 Flower Alley 1st '04 Sinister G 2nd Allowance (GP) Maiden (GP) Allowance (GP) Palm Beach (GP) Remsen (Aqu) Fountain of Youth (GP) Southwest (OP) John Battaglia Memorial (TP) Maiden (GP) Allowance (Aqu) Inside the Spiral Stakes Five of the last six Spiral winners had tackled the Gulfstream Park lawn earlier in the year, including three straight class risers. Six straight winners, all in the Polytrack era, were single-digit odds prior to last year's 15-1 upset by Black Onyx. Countdown for the Spiral Stakes 42 days until Derby 56 days until Preakness 77 days until Belmont 97 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SUNLAND DERBY March 23, 2014 Steve Asmussen "knew best" in the 2012 Sunland Derby. Derby qualifying points: 50-20-10-5 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Sunland Derby Winners '13 Govenor Charlie Garcia Baffert '12 Daddy Nose Best Leparoux Asmussen '11 Twice the Appeal Reyes Bonde '10 Endorsement Albarado Ritter '09 Kelly Leak Smith Machowsky '08 Liberty Bull G.Melancon Amoss '07 Song of Navarone Espinoza Dominguez '06 Wanna Runner Espinoza Baffert '05 Thor's Echo Nakatani O'Neill '04 Hi Teck Man Jaime Nall KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SUNLAND DERBY: One of the newest stops on the Triple Crown trail, New Mexico's big one debuted in 2003. West coast horsemen took to it from the start as Doug O'Neill won the then-named WinStar Derby twice in its first three years. Bob Baffert, Jeff Bonde & Mike Machowsky also have realized success here leaving California. It's offered at 1 1/8 miles on dirt, over a very fast racing surface that can fool speed-figure players and those following the stopwatch. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: The Sunland Derby was won in stylish fashion by west coaster Govenor Charlie, who never was seriously challenged. He thumped Show Some Magic by five lengths in 1:47.54 for the 1 1/8 miles – good for a track record on a blazing-fast day when three different track standards were set. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Mine That Bird and Ruler On Ice give this short, 11year history two TC victories, and Thor's Echo would win this race before becoming a Breeders' Cup Sprint champ. The full alumni in TC races: Ky Derby: Daddy Nose best (10th, '12), Twice the Appeal (10th, '11), Conveyance (‗15th, '10), Mine That Bird (1st, '09), Advice (13th, '09), Sort It Out (17th, '05). Preakness: Govenor Charlie (8th, '13), Daddy Nose Best (9th, '12), Astrology (3rd, '11), Mine That Bird (2nd, '09). Belmont: Ruler On Ice (1st, '11), Mine That Bird (3rd, '09), Southern Africa (8th, '05). BRIS Fig 99 101 95 99 92 91 104 99 96 95 Last10 Sunland Derby Winners' Preps '13 Govenor Charlie 1st '12 Daddy Nose Best 1st '11 Twice the Appeal 4th '10 Endorsement 1st '09 Kelly Leak 1st '08 Liberty Bull 3rd '07 Song of Navarone 3rd '06 Wanna Runner 5th '05 Thor's Echo 2nd '04 Hi Teck Man 3rd Maiden (SA) El Camino Real Derby (GG) Turf Paradise Derby (TuP) Maiden (OP) Allowance (SA) Southwest (OP) Sham (SA) El Camino Real Derby (BM) Borderland Derby (Sun) Borderland Derby (Sun) Inside the Sunland Derby An eclectic mix of dirt, synthetic and turf-prepped runners have looted the rich Sunland Derby of late. West coast experience has been present with four of the last five champs. Big-barn influences have been undeniable with only one local trainer to score in the last nine years. Countdown for the Sunland Derby 41 days until Derby 55 days until Preakness 76 days until Belmont 98 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. FLORIDA DERBY March 29, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY Big Brown made 2 preps & lightly raced the new norm in "08. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE FLORIDA DERBY: The Florida Derby always has been a key focus of the Triple Crown trail. But as it has maneuvered on the calendar and horsemen have evolved into wanting more time between starts, this prep has taken on an even greater influence. Prime placement five weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, a 1 1/8 miles race on dirt and with a wonderful series of local preps leading into it, it's now the crème de la crème of the trail. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Eventual Kentucky Derby winner Orb confirmed his status among the favorites with an easy win over eventual Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday. Showing more tactical speed, Orb was close to the moderate pace before overpowering the field off the far turn. It was Shug McGaughey's first Florida Derby victory and a harbinger of history to come. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: With 3 of the last 8 Kentucky Derby winners having also won the FL Derby (Orb, Big Brown, Barbaro), its influence has been immense. Since moving closer to the TC dates in 2005, top alumni include: Ky Derby: Orb (1st, '13), Ice Box (2nd, '10), Big Brown (1st, '08), Barbaro (1st, '06) Preakness: Itsmyluckyday (2nd, '13), Shackleford (1st, '11), First Dude (2nd, '10), Big Brown (1st, '08) Belmont: Orb (3rd, '13), Union Rags (1st, '12), First Dude (3rd, '10), Dunkirk (2nd, '09), Da'Tara (1st, '08), Sunriver (3rd, '06) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Florida Derby Winners '13 Orb Velazquez '12 Take Charge Indy Borel '11 Dialed In Leparoux '10 Ice Box Lezcano '09 Quality Road Velazquez '08 Big Brown Desormeaux '07 Scat Daddy Prado '06 Barbaro Prado '05 High Fly Bailey '04 Friends Lake Migliore '13 Orb 1st '12 Take Charge Indy 2nd '11 Dialed In 2nd '10 Ice Box 5th '09 Quality Road 1st '08 Big Brown 1st '07 Scat Daddy 1st '06 Barbaro 1st '05 High Fly 1st '04 Friends Lake 3rd McGaughey Byrne Zito Zito J. Jerkens R. Dutrow Pletcher Matz Zito Kimmel BRIS Fig 97 104 101 101 103 110 101 104 108 99 Last 10 Florida Derby Winners' Preps Fountain of Youth (GP) Allowance (GP) Allowance (GP) Fountain of Youth (GP) Fountain of Youth (GP) Allowance (GP) Fountain of Youth (GP) Holy Bull (GP) Fountain of Youth (GP) Holy Bull (GP) Inside the Florida Derby Locally based runners have ruled the day, with the last 10 winners having a recent race over the track, while the top three betting choices have won eight of the past 10 renewals. Don't expect a wakeup call as eight of the last nine winners exited 1st or 2ndplace finishes. Proven stakes runners used easier Allowance tune-ups to save something for Fla Derby scores in '11, '12. Countdown for the Florida Derby 35 days until Derby 49 days until Preakness 70 days until Belmont 99 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. 100 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. LOUISIANA DERBY March 29, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY Pletcher & WinStar"s Elliott Walden had a winning play called in "13. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE LA DERBY: The Louisiana Derby once was a strong mid-season race that propelled top Triple Crown hopefuls toward their final prep. But its push back later in the calendar four years ago (while simultaneously expanding from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/8 miles) rapidly improved its profile. The taxing Fair Grounds homestretch of 1,346 feet actually is more than 111 feet longer than Churchill Downs, providing a realistic dress rehearsal. Competing with the sameday Florida Derby for horses, it often gets the East's A-minus or B team in a matchup vs. seasoned locals. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Revolutionary and Mylute engaged in a long duel in the stretch with the former putting a head in front. The deep heat saw six alumni make TC race bids. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Grindstone and Risen Star dot the history of this race, but note the La Derby's depth since extending the distance and moving the date in 2010: HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners '13 Revolutionary '12 Hero of Order '11 Pants On Fire '10 Mission Impazible '09 Friesan Fire '08 Pyro '07 Circular Quay Not held in 2006 '05 High Limit '04 Wimbledon '03 Peace Rules Pletcher Martin Dorochenko Napravnik Breen Maragh Pletcher G. Saez L. Jones Bridgmoha Asmussen Velazquez Pletcher Castellano Dominguez Frankel BRIS Fig 105 95 97 97 103 100 105 106 103 106 Santiago Prado Baffert Frankel Ky Derby: Golden Soul (2nd, '13), Revolutionary (3rd, '13), Mylute (5th, '13), Palace Malice (12th, '13), Rousing Sermon (8th, '12), Nehro (2nd, 11), Mucho Macho Man (3rd, '11), Pants on Fire (9th, '11), Mission Impazible (9th, '10), Discreetly Mine (13th, '10) '13 Revolutionary 1st '12 Hero of Order 4th '11 Pants On Fire 6th '10 Mission Impazible 3rd '09 Friesan Fire 1st '08 Pyro 1st '07 Circular Quay 5th Not held in 2006 '05 High Limit 1st '04 Wimbledon 1st '03 Peace Rules 1st Last 10 Louisiana Derby Winners' Preps Withers (Aqu) Black Gold (FG) Risen Star (FG) Southwest (OP) Risen Star (FG) Risen Star (FG) Risen Star (FG) Allowance (Del) Maiden (SA) Hill Rise (SA) Preakness: Mylute (3rd, '13), Departing (6th, '13), Titletown Five (9th, '13), Mucho Macho Man (6th, '11) Belmont: Palace Malice (1st, '13), Revolutionary (5th, '13), Golden Soul (9th), Nehro (4th, '11), Mucho Macho Man (7th, '11), Drosselmeyer (1st, '10), Fly Down (2nd, '10), Stay Put (5th, '10) Inside the Louisiana Derby Seven straight La Derby winners exited stakes bids, while five of the last seven competed in the Risen Star on the local path. Pletcher owns two of the four wins since it was extended in distance and moved. Countdown for the Louisiana Derby 35 days until Derby 49 days until Preakness 70 days until Belmont 101 2014 Preakness Meet runs April 3 - June 7 Average Daily Purses of $250,000 • Visit pimlico.com for information 102 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. WOOD MEM'L April 5, 2014 Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY Pletcher leans toward a 4th Wood win in the last 5 years. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOOD: It's impossible to look at the current Wood Memorial without acknowledging how much the repositioned dates of the Florida & Louisiana Derbies have impacted its quality. The days of Funny Cide-Empire Maker are a decade gone with NO Derby placings since. NYRA's key nine-furlong prep on the dirt is in danger of becoming 2nd-tier. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Verrazano had to work harder than expected, but was a game winner over a fast-closing Normandy Invasion. The winner rewarded his odds-on backers, but distance limitations began to creep in. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since Florida Derby's '06 rise, consider this ledger: HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners '13 Verrazano Velazquez Pletcher '12 Gemologist Castellano Pletcher '11 Toby's Corner Castro Motion '10 Eskendereya Velazquez Pletcher '09 I Want Revenge Talamo Mullins '08 Tale Of Ekati Prado Tagg '07 Nobiz Like Shobiz C. Velasquez Tagg '06 Bob And John Gomez Baffert '05 Bellamy Road Castellano Zito '04 Tapit Dominguez Dickinson BRIS Fig 100 104 97 102 109 100 102 103 115 98 Last 10 Wood Memorial Winners' Preps '13 Verrazano 1st '12 Gemologist 1st '11 Toby's Corner 3rd '10 Eskendereya 1st '09 I Want Revenge 1st '08 Tale Of Ekati 6th '07 Nobiz Like Shobiz 3rd '06 Bob and John 3rd '05 Bellamy Road 1st '04 Tapit 6th Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Allowance (GP) Gotham (Aqu) Fountain of Youth (GP) Gotham (Aqu) Louisiana Derby (FG) Fountain of Youth (GP) San Felipe (SA) Allowance (GP) Florida Derby (GP) Ky Derby: Verrazano (14th, '13), Normany Invasion (4th, '13), Vyjack (18th. '13), Gemologist (16th, '12), Alpha (12th, '12), Jackson Bend (12th, '10), Awesome Act (19th, '10), West Side Bernie (9th, '09), Atomic Rain (16th, '09), Tale of Ekati (4th, '08), Anak Nakal (7th, '08), Court Vision (13th, '08), Nobiz Like Shobiz (10th, '07) Preakness: Teeth of the Dog (5th, '12), Tiger Walk (8th, '12), Isn't He Perfect (9th, '11), Norman Asbjornson (11th, '11), Jackson Bend (3rd, '10), Schoolyard Dreams (‗9th, '10), Giant Moon (8th, '08) Belmont: Vyjack (8th, '13), Freedom Child (13th, '13), Street Life (4th, '12), My Adonis (8th, '12), Isn't He Perfect (12th, '11), Anak Nakal (3rd, '08), Tale of Ekati (6th, '08). Inside the Wood Memorial Favorites have won four of the last five, though the last 10 winners have come from several different circuits and preps. Entering off a win isn't a must either, as half of the last 10 winners lost their prior starts. Todd Pletcher's deep bench has won three of the last four Wood Memorial offerings via Florida. Countdown for the Wood Memorial 28 days until Derby 42 days until Preakness 63 days until Belmont 103 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. SANTA ANITA DERBY April 5, 2014 I"ll Have Another: Doug O"Neill"s first of back-to-back SA Derby scores. Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Santa Anita Derby Winners '13 Goldencents Krigger O'Neill '12 I'll Have Another Gutierrez O'Neill '11 Midnight Interlude Espinoza Baffert '10 Sidney's Candy Talamo Sadler '09 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez Baffert '08 Colonel John Nakatani Harty '07 Tiago Smith Shirreffs '06 Brother Derek Solis Hendricks '05 Buzzards Bay Guidry Mullins '04 Castledale Valdivia Mullins '13 Goldencents 4th '12 I'll Have Another 1st '11 Midnight Interlude1st '10 Sidney's Candy 1st '09 Pioneerof the Nile 1st '08 Colonel John 1st '07 Tiago 1st '06 Brother Derek 1st '05 Buzzards Bay 3rd '04 Castledale 6th KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE SA DERBY: The west's main event completes a local, four-prep superfecta of routes that culminates at 1 1/8 miles. Doug O'Neill and Bob Baffert have won four of the last five editions as clearly the only two major barns on the circuit truly aiming at the trail with deep intentions. Some occasionally surface with the right horse, but it's clear the intentions of these two outfits all spring long. What's interesting is how often Baffert has road-tripped with his A-players. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Goldencents contested a fast pace set by the fleet Super Ninety Nine, put that one away and held on well to beat Flashback by 1 1-4 lengths. It gave O'Neill back-to-back wins in this race. Goldencents went on to the Derby/Preakness, where he flashed speed and faded, and later regained form in sprints and ultimately won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: I'll Have Another returned glory to alumni like Lookin At Lucky, Giacomo, Point Given, AP Indy & Sunday Silence. Since SA returned to dirt in 2011: Ky Derby: Goldencents (17th, '13), I'll Have Another (1st, '12), Creative Cause (5th, '12), Liaison (6th, '12), Midnight Interlude (16th, '11), Comma to the Top (19th, '11) Preakness: Goldencents (5th, '13), I'll Have Another (1st, '12), Creative Cause (3rd, '12), rd th BRIS Fig 106 98 98 99 (syn) 95 (syn) 98 (syn) 100 105 103 102 Last 10 Santa Anita DerbyWinners' Preps San Felipe (SA) Robert B. Lewis (SA) Maiden (SA) San Felipe (SA) San Felipe (SA) Sham (SA) Santa Anita Derby (SA) Santa Catalina (SA) El Camino Real Derby (BM) San Rafael (SA) Inside the Santa Anita Derby 7 straight SA Derby champs had exited a winning prep until Goldencents' rebound in ‗13. He became the 3rd San Felipe alum in the last five years to win this race, and the 7th SA Derby winner in 8 years to exit a local stakes prep. Baffert in $ 5 straight years. Countdown for the Santa Anita Derby 28 days until Derby 42 days until Preakness 63 days until Belmont Midnight Interlude (3 , '11), Mr. Commons (8 , '11) Belmont: Paynter (2nd, '12) 104 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. 105 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. ARKANSAS DERBY April 12, 2014 Bodemeister proved to be one of the most brilliant 3YOs of the decade. Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE ARKANSAS DERBY: A large field size, sea of racing fans making for plenty of commotion and a high-quality Grade 1 at 1 1/8 miles in distance all conspire to make this the most realistic rehearsal for the Kentucky Derby to be found anywhere. It's old-school placement on the calendar just three weeks out from Derby Day has served as a galvanizer throughout the Triple Crown with much success across the big three. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: With Rebel winner Will Take Charge opting to sit this one out and train up to Louisville, Overanalyze forwarded one of the more authoritative efforts on the Derby trail as he boldly took command in the stretch and left no doubt in a 4 1/4-length win. Favored War Academy was pulled up early on, while Oxbow found traffic after a slow start. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The highlights since '04 have been tremendous: Ky Derby: Bodemeister (2nd, '12), Nehro (2nd '11), Super Saver (1st, '10), Curlin (3rd, '07), Steppenwolfer (3rd, '06), Afleet Alex (3rd, '05), Smarty Jones (1st, '04). Preakness: Oxbow (1st, '13), Bodemeister (2nd, '12), Curlin (1st, '07), Afleet Alex (1st, '05), Smarty Jones (1st, '04). Belmont: Atigun (3rd, '12), Summer Bird (1st, '09), Curlin (2nd, '07), Afleet Alex (1st, '05), HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Arkansas Derby Winners '13 Overanalyze '12 Bodemeister '11 Archarcharch '10 Line of David '09 Papa Clem '08 Gayego '07 Curlin '06 Lawyer Ron '05 Afleet Alex '04 Smarty Jones Bejarano Pletcher Smith Baffert Court Fires Court Sadler Bejarano G. Stute Smith Lobo Albarado Asmussen McKee Holthus Rose Ritchey Elliott Jo.Servis 5th 2nd 3rd 1st 2nd 2nd 1st 1st 6th 1st BRIS Fig 96 105 99 99 100 101 102 101 107 105 Last10 Arkansas DerbyWinners' Preps '13 Overanalyze '12 Bodemeister '11 Archarcharch '10 Line of David '09 Papa Clem '08 Gayego '07 Curlin '06 Lawyer Ron '05 Afleet Alex '04 Smarty Jones Gotham (Aqu) San Felipe (SA) Rebel (OP) Allowance (SA) Louisiana Derby (FG) San Felipe (SA) Rebel (OP) Rebel (OP) Rebel (OP) Rebel (OP) Inside the Arkansas Derby The Rebel once was a must-stop en route to this race, but five of the last six Ark Derby winners have been fresh faces to the local path – including four West Coasters. Because of its rigorous local prep path, the defeated in this race are horses to watch – ala Oxbow, Nehro, Super Saver, Summer Bird et al. Countdown for the Arkansas Derby 21 days until Derby 35 days until Preakness 56 days until Belmont Andromeda's Hero (2nd, '05), Smarty Jones (2nd, '04). 106 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. 107 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. BLUE GRASS April 12, 2014 Dullahan was at his best at Keeneland – and ran 3rd in the Derby. Derby qualifying points: 100-40-20-10 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners '13 Java's War '12 Dullahan '11 Brilliant Speed '10 Stately Victor '09 General Quarters '08 Monba '07 Dominican '06 Sinister Minister '05 Bandini '04 The Cliff's Edge McPeek Desormeaux Romans Rosario Albertrani A. Garcia Maker Coa McCarthy Prado Pletcher Bejarano Miller Gomez Baffert Velazquez Pletcher Sellers Zito 2nd 2nd 2nd 5th 5th 12th 1st 2nd 2nd 3rd Leparoux KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE BLUE GRASS: For all the hub-bub about the Polytrack surface, the facts indicate that Keeneland's Blue Grass has produced eight TC placings (two wins) in the seven years since the synthetic turnover compared to seven placings (no wins) in the seven years preceding the move from dirt. At 1 1/8 miles, the Blue Grass joins Turfway's Spiral as the lone ninefurlong preps in Kentucky before Derby Day. Three weeks out on the calendar, it competes directly with horses from the surging Arkansas Derby, but its appeal to turf runners and last-call hopefuls in need of another bid (like Palace Malice in '13) keep the field highly respected and deep. Horsemen want to win at Keeneland, and that prestige helps the draw. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Java's War showed his 2nd-place finish behind Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby was no fluke when he closed from last to get up in the final stride over eventual Belmont winner Palace Malice. Turf star Rydilluc went off a tepid 7-2 favorite and was clear in midstretch, but tired badly late to finish 4th. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since the Polytrack installation, highlights of the Blue Grass alumni in the TC since 2007 include: Ky Derby: Street Sense (1st, '07), Paddy O'Prado (3rd, '10), Dullahan (3rd, '12) Preakness: Street Sense (2nd, '07), First Dude (2nd, '10). Belmont: First Dude (3rd, '10), Brilliant Speed (3rd, '11), Palace Malice (1st, '13). BRIS Fig 96 102 97 99 98 97 98 116 (dirt) 109 (dirt) 115 (dirt) Last 10 Blue Grass Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Java's War '12 Dullahan '11 Brilliant Speed '10 Stately Victor '09 General Quarters '08 Monba '07 Dominican '06 Sinister Minister '05 Bandini '04 The Cliff's Edge Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Palm Beach (GP) Hallandale Beach (GP) ALW (GP) Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Fountain of Youth (GP) Rushaway (TP) California Derby (GG) Fountain of Youth (GP) Florida Derby (GP) Inside the Blue Grass Stakes The switch to Poly in Fall ‗06 turned the Blue Grass into a longshot player's paradise, with an average $2 winning price of $30. Conversely, favorites have gone 0-for-7 and only three hit the Blue Grass board. Deep closers have won four straight. Countdown for the Blue Grass Stakes 21 days until Derby 35 days until Preakness 56 days until Belmont 108 A N Y W H E R E WATCH AND WAGER FROM ANYWHERE! • Exclusive handicapping tips and tools • FREE Past Performances • Live streaming video and race replays • Real time racing information • EZmoney online deposit and withdrawal service Be a part of all the action Anywhere in Arkansas! $100 SIGN UP BONUS AT OAKLAWNANYWHERE.COM Gambling Problem? 1-800-522-4700 109 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. LEXINGTON STAKES April 19, 2014 Maker & Ramsey own Keeneland of late & won this race in 2011. Derby qualifying points: 10-4-2-1 STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners '13 Winning Cause Leparoux Pletcher '12 All Squared Away J. Garcia Ward '11 Derby Kitten Leparoux Maker '10 Exhi Albarado Pletcher '09 Advice Gomez Pletcher '08 Behindatthebar Flores Pletcher '07 Slew's Tizzy Albarado Fox '06 Showing Up C. VelasquezTagg '05 Coin Silver Castellano Pletcher '04 Quintons Gold Rush Bailey Albarado KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE LEXINGTON: The Lexington's usefulness as a Kentucky Derby prep has been limited in recent years as trainers push for more time between races. Its fixed position on the calendar two weeks out from Derby now makes it more of a middle-distance specialists' race or a late-bloomer's race for possible Preakness or Belmont Stakes development. At 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, the Lexington ends at the 1/16 pole finish line, offering a short stretch run. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Winning Cause continued his affinity for Keeneland's Polytrack and moved to 3-for-3 over the local oval (0-4 elsewhere at that time). Todd Pletcher won the race for the 4th time in six years. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The Lexington hit its best stride when Touch Gold scored the ‗97 Belmont Stakes, and two years later Charismastic added rousing 1999 Kentucky Derby / Preakness wins. The race has failed to produce a TC starter the last two years. In the Poly era: Ky Derby: Derby Kitten (13th, '11) Preakness: Racecar Rhapsody (4th, '08), Riley Tucker (12th, '08) Belmont: Slew's Tizzy (7th, '07), Uptowncharlybrown (12th, '10), Prime Cut (11th, '11) BRIS Fig 86 97 96 97 93 99 94 96 (dirt) 108 (dirt) 109 (dirt) Last 10 Lexington Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Winning Cause 1st '12 All Squared Away 6th '11 Derby Kitten 2nd '10 Exhi 1st '09 Advice 5th '08 Behindatthebar 1st '07 Slew's Tizzy 7th '06 Showing Up 1st '05 Coin Silver 3rd '04 Quintons Gold Rush 4th Allowance (Kee) Spiral (TP) Alligator Alley (GP) Rushaway (TP) Sunland Derby (Sun) Allowance (SA) Louisiana Derby (FG) Allowance (GP) Allowance (GP) Santa Anita Derby (SA) Inside the Lexington Stakes Lexington winners can come from anywhere, especially with the race's late date, so don't be afraid to think outside the box. Todd Pletcher's four wins in the last six years have included some prices. Stalkers/closers have been preferred since the switch to Polytrack, winning five of seven. Countdown for the Lexington 14 days until Derby 28 days until Preakness 49 days until Belmont BET THE LEXINGTON AT: 110 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. ILLINOIS DERBY April 19, 2014 Departing got the thumbs up for a Preakness bid after scoring at Hawthorne. Derby qualifying points: None STAKES HISTORY BRIS Fig 100 92 98 101 104 104 106 114 108 105 KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE ILLINOIS DERBY: The Illinois Derby spent much of its history as a Belmont Stakes prep on the late April/May calendar, before moving to early April in 2001. One year later it struck gold with War Emblem. The race moved back on the calendar to late April a year ago, failed to attract Kentucky Derby qualifying points in a controversial decision by Churchill Downs management and for the second straight year will be without direct qualifying points. The Illinois Derby often is contested on a very fast, speed-favoring track over 1 1/8 miles with a long stretch run at Hawthorne measuring 1,320 feet – longer than any of the Triple Crown venues. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Though there were no Kentucky Derby points on the line, last year's renewal was won by the talented Departing, who went on to win the West Virginia Derby and Super Derby. At 9-5, he used a powerful, wide move to win going away over 13 rivals. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Since repositioning on the calendar in ‗01, the Illinois Derby's TC highlights have been limited. War Emblem made successful headlines in 2002, while Sweetnorthernsaint was the beaten Kentucky Derby favorite in ‗06. The highlights since ‗01: Ky Derby: War Emblem (1st, '02), Denis of Cork (3rd, '08), Musket Man (3rd, '09) Preakness: War Emblem (1st, '02), Musket Man (3rd, '09) Belmont: Denis of Cork (2nd, '08) HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners '13 Departing Hernandez Stall '12 Done Talking Russell H. Smith '11 Joe Vann Geroux Pletcher '10 American Lion Flores Harty '09 Musket Man Coa Ryan '08 Recapturetheglory Baird Roussel '07 Cowtown Cat Jara Pletcher '06 Sweetnorthernsaint Desormeaux Trombetta '05 Greeley's Galaxy Desormeaux G. Stute '04 Pollard's Vision Coa Pletcher Last 10 Illinois Derby Winners' Preps '13 Departing '12 Done Talking '11 Joe Vann '10 American Lion '09 Musket Man '08 Recapturetheglory '07 Cowtown Cat '06 Sweetnorthernsaint '05 Greeley's Galaxy '04 Pollard's Vision 3rd 10th 1st 4th 1st 3rd 1st 3rd 1st 3rd Louisiana Derby (FG) Gotham (Aqu) Allowance (Lrl) San Felipe (SA) Tampa Bay Derby (Tam) Allowance (FG) Gotham (Aqu) Gotham (Aqu) Allowance (SA) Louisiana Derby (FG) Inside the Illinois Derby Longshot players look away! Only two of the last 10 winners have paid over 5-1. Running styles have varied, with front runners (4), stalker/pressers (4) and closers (2) having success over the past decade. Shippers have dominated, with Fordubai's 2nd a year ago the only placing for a Chicago-based prepper since War Emblem's win in 2002. Countdown for the Illinois Derby 28 days until Derby 42 days until Preakness 63 days until Belmont 111 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. DERBY TRIAL April 26, 2014 Macho Again delivered a Preakness placing out of the Derby Trial. Derby qualifying points: none STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Derby Trial Winners '13 Forty Tales '12 Hierro '11 Machen '10 Hurricane Ike '09 Hull '08 Macho Again '07 Flying First Class '06 Record '05 Don't Get Mad '04 Sir Shackleton Rosario Leparoux Prado Borel Mena Leparoux Guidry Bejarano Stevens Bejarano 5th 4th 5th 2nd 1st 7th 6th 2nd 6th 1st Pletcher Asmussen Howard Sadler Romans Stewart Lukas Baffert Ellis Zito KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE DERBY TRIAL: The days of a blowout prep seven days out from the Kentucky Derby are long gone in modern training. But the one-turn mile of the Derby Trial has evolved into a mix of pure sprinters, late bloomers, comebackers from injury and tantalizing middle-distance runners whose connections eyeball the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. The Derby Trial anchors the traditional opening day program of the Churchill spring meeting – but offers no qualifying points. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Forty Tales came off a 5th-place finish in the Swale at Gulfstream and went postward as the slight 3-1 favorite in the Derby Trial. He rallied past the leaders and then held off the furious late charge by Todd Pletcher stablemate Capo Bastone for a neck win that would lead to a sprint victory on the Belmont Stakes undercard in the Woody Stephens. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Don't Get Mad in '05 was the last Derby Trial runner to wheel back into the Kentucky Derby (ran solid 4th). Since that time, the Trial has had a surprising, though sporadic, good fortune in the Belmont Stakes. Consider: Ky Derby: None. Preakness: Titletown Five (9th, '13), Aikenite (10th, '10), Pleasant Prince (11th, '10), Macho Again (2nd, '08). Belmont: Paynter (2nd, '12), Game On Dude (4th, '10), Da'Tara (1st, '08). BRIS Fig 93 107 95 105 96 103 96 98 107 94 Last 10 Derby Trial Winners' Preps '13 Forty Tales '12 Hierro '11 Machen '10 Hurricane Ike '09 Hull '08 Macho Again '07 Flying First Class '06 Record '05 Don't Get Mad '04 Sir Shackleton Swale (GP) Allowance (SA) Louisiana Derby (FG) Bay Shore (Aqu) Allowance (TP) Lane's End Stakes (TP) Arkansas Derby (OP) Allowance (SA) Santa Anita Derby (SA) Allowance (Kee) Inside the Derby Trial Four of the last five Derby Trial winners exited sprint preps at 6-7 furlongs; only Machen turned back from a route bid since ‗09. Trial winners seem to find the right level and outperform the hotter hands, witnessed by eight of the last nine winners exiting a loss & three straight off-the-board preps. Countdown for the Derby Trial 7 days until Derby 21 days until Preakness 42 days until Belmont 112 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. FEDERICO TESIO STAKES April 26, 2014 (date TBD) Late bloomer Abstraction shipped in from KY to win the "13 Tesio. Derby qualifying points: None SEE STAKES HISTORY BELOW HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Race not held 2012 Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners BRIS Fig 95 96 91 96 94 102 108 98 96 99 '13 Abstraction Goncalves Carroll '11 ConcealedIdentityRussell E. Gaudet '10 Bank The Eight Pino T. Dutrow '09 Miner's Escape Garcia Zito '08 Icabad Crane Rose Motion '07 Xchanger Domingz Shuman '06 Ah Day Foglsngr Leatherbury '05 MalibuMoonshine Hamilton Leatherbury '04 Water Cannon Foglsngr Albert '03 Cherokee's Boy Foglsngr G. Capuano KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE TESIO STAKES: The Federico Tesio Stakes serves as Pimlico's only local prep for the Triple Crown. Maryland's winterspring racing is at Laurel Park until the month of April and the lead-up to the middle jewel of the Triple Crown at Pimlico. The 1 1/16 miles race returned to the schedule in '13 after a one-year absence, and is a good spot for a late bloomer on the trail or a horse who fails to qualify for the Kentucky Derby on points – such as Ruler On Ice in 2011, who would upset the Belmont. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Impressive Fair Grounds Maiden winner Abstraction returned on five weeks' rest to notch his first career stakes score, overcoming a slow pace and crafty race riding against the chalk. Abstraction finished 3rd in the G3 Matt Winn at Churchill before going on the sidelines the rest of the year. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: Tesio alumni can still make the Preakness or sameday Sir Barton on the middle jewel's undercard. Of its last 11 editions, it's offered a Belmont winner and 2 Preakness placings. Consider: Ky Derby: None. Preakness: Icabad Crane (3rd, '08), Xchanger (8th, '07), Malibu Moonshine (8th, '05), Water Cannon (10th, '04), Cherokee's Boy (8th, '03), Magic Weisner (2nd, '02). Belmont: Ruler On Ice (1st, '11), Miner's Escape (10th, '09), Icabad Crane (8th, '08) Last 10 Tesio Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Abstraction '11 Concealed Identity '10 Bank The Eight '09 Miner's Escape '08 Icabad Crane '07 Xchanger '06 Ah Day '05 Malibu Moonshine '04 Water Cannon '03 Cherokee's Boy 1st 1st 1st 1st 3rd 7th 1st 1st 1st 5th Maiden (FG) Allowance (Pim) Allowance(Pha/Prx) Maiden (GP) Rushaway (TP) Rebel (OP) Allowance (Lrl) Private Terms (Lrl) Private Terms (Lrl) Illinois Derby (Haw) Inside the Tesio Stakes Stakes Impressive recent winners on the class rise have taken the last four editions of the Tesio, and it's been a popular race for shippers to take a shot at the locals. Parx invaders ran 2-3 last year while winning three years ago. Countdown for the Tesio Stakes 7 days until Derby 21 days until Preakness 42 days until Belmont 113 F R I D AY, PIMLICO M AY RACE 1 6, 2014 COURSE "A woman is the full circle. Within her is the power to create, nurture and transform.â€? - Diane Mariechild The Maryland Jockey Club is committed to the empowerment of women and supports a platform to honor their strength and spirit. Black-Eyed Susan Day represents that platform by championing causes related to health, education, career, relationships and family. Infield Concert Tickets: $40 The day will feature live performances by international superstars. Mug & Vine Lounge Tickets: $80 The NEW destination at the Top of the Stretch. Turfside Terrace Tickets: $150 Treat yourself to spectacular views of the homestretch and finish line at this stylish garden party with premium amenities. All tickets provide access to Wagering 101 with Horse Player NOW experts. Order Your Tickets Today at BlackEyedSusanDay.com. F/BlackEyedSusanDay t@BESSTAKES 114 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. 115 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. KENTUCKY DERBY May 3, 2014 Shug McGaughey became the center of the racing universe once again with Orb. STAKES HISTORY KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE KY DERBY: The Derby offers so many firsts: 1 1/4 miles distance, 126 pounds for each runner, a mob-scene crowd over 150,000, and the largest field of runners a horse ever will face in a race. These are the real variables, almost immeasurable to daily racing and handicapping, that make the first Saturday in May such a wondrous mental challenge. Pre-Derby workouts are scrutinized like no other time of the year, and it seems annually that the great ones tip their hands. It's about peaking; everything must come together. Deciding which horse, not only set to run the race of his life but also fortunate enough to get his trip, rates our favorite challenge in all of sports. The advice here: never let a workout or two change your opinion of horse, only enhance it. You must like a horse's season of work, first, before a flashy workout sways you. When endearing form from your study meets a series of eye-catching workouts from the experts, you have found your Derby horse. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Orb flourished coming up to the race and became the envy of fellow horsemen and onlookers. He ran to that preparedness in capturing his 5th straight win, rallying wide in the slop as the 5-1 favorite. Eventual Belmont winner Palace Malice ran off while outfitted in blinkers for the first time and helped set the table while burning out unbeaten stablemate Verrazano and West Coast speedball Goldencents. The top three rallied from 17th, 15th and 18th midway home. Pace prompter Oxbow held best of the early brigade to be 6th, foretelling his Preakness possibilities in two weeks. HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners '13 Orb '12 I'll Have Another '11 Animal Kingdom '10 Super Saver '09 Mine That Bird '08 Big Brown '07 Street Sense '06 Barbaro '05 Giacomo '04 Smarty Jones Rosario Gutierrez Velazquez Borel Borel Desormx Borel Prado Smith Elliott 1st 1st 1st 2nd 4th 1st 2nd 1st 4th 1st McCaughey O'Neill Motion Pletcher Woolley R. Dutrow Nafzger Matz Shirreffs Jo.Servis BRIS Fig 111 108 105 105 110 111 108 109 100 106 Last 10 Kentucky Derby Winners' Preps '13 Orb '12 I'll Have Another '11 Animal Kingdom '10 Super Saver '09 Mine That Bird '08 Big Brown '07 Street Sense '06 Barbaro '05 Giacomo '04 Smarty Jones Florida Derby (GP) Santa Anita Derby (SA) Spiral (TP) Arkansas Derby (OP) Sunland Derby (Sun) Florida Derby (GP) Blue Grass (Kee) Florida Derby (GP) Santa Anita Derby (SA) Arkansas Derby (OP) Inside the Kentucky Derby Five straight winners have come from different prep locales and very diverse at that. After a remarkable stretch of rookie trainers having success, the last four winners have been saddled by men who had been down the road before, but finally able to put it together. Take out the pair of 50-1 winners & you'll see eight of 10 champs exiting 1st / 2nd-place preps. Countdown for the Kentucky Derby 14 days until Preakness 35 days until Belmont 116 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. PETER PAN May 10, 2014 STAKES HISTORY Rosie Napravnik piloted Mark Valeski to the "12 Peter Pan. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE PETER PAN: Belmont Park's sole local route prep for the final jewel of the Triple Crown, this 1 1/8 miles race is unique in that it is contested around just one turn. It lures an eclectic mix of Aqueduct holdovers and southern invaders, some with aspirations for the test of the champion and others with sights on the middle-distance nature of the Peter Pan. Most years it will produce at least one starter for the Belmont. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Relishing a sloppy main track no one else handled, Freedom Child ran splashed home to a 13 1/4 length wire-to-wire win over a non-descript field. The race proved to be the exception, rather than the rule, as Freedom Child was soundly beaten in the Belmont and Jim Dandy before retiring. TRIPLE CROWN IMPACT: The last Peter Pan alum to win the Belmont Stakes was Lemon Drop Kid in '99, while the last horse to sweep both races was AP Indy in 1992. Since '02, here are the best finishes of the Peter Pan alumni: Belmont: Street Life (4th, '12), Charitable Man (4th, '09), Ready's Echo (dh-3rd, '09), Sunriver (3rd, '06), Sunday Break (3rd, '02). HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners '13 Freedom Child '12 Mark Valeski '11 Alteration ‗09 Charitable Man '08 Casino Drive '07 Sightseeing '06 Sunriver '05 Oratory '04 Purge '03 Go Rockin' Robin BRIS Fig 105 102 103 103 109 99 103 114 110 97 Saez Albertrani Napravnik L. Jones Dominguez DK Von Hemel A. Garcia McLaughlin Desormeaux Fujisawa Prado McGaughey Bejarano Pletcher Bailey Albertrani Velazquez Pletcher Bridgmohan Schwartz 10th 2nd 5th 7th 1st 2nd 3rd 2nd 5th 1st Last 10 Peter Pan Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Freedom Child '12 Mark Valeski '11 Alteration '09 Charitable Man '08 Casino Drive '07 Sightseeing '06 Sunriver '05 Oratory '04 Purge '03 Go Rockin' Robin Wood Memorial (Aqu) Louisiana Derby (FG) Arkansas Derby (OP) Blue Grass (Kee) MSW (Kyoto) Wood Memorial (Aqu) Florida Derby (GP) ALW (Aqu) Arkansas Derby (OP) ALW (Aqu) BET THE PETER PAN AT: Inside the Peter Pan Stakes You better have some tactical speed if you want to win the Peter Pan, as all but two of the last 10 winners has been within 4 1/2 lengths at the pace call. Highly backed runners have ruled of late, as the average win price over the last seven renewals is a paltry $5.60. Countdown for the Peter Pan Stakes 7 days until Preakness 28 days until Belmont 117 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. PREAKNESS STAKES May 17, 2014 Stevens & Oxbow were right on time in last year"s middle jewel. . STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners '13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas '12 I'll Have Another Gutierrez O'Neill '11 Shackleford Castanon Romans '10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert '09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen '08 Big Brown Desormx R Dutrow '07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen '06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani '05 Afleet Alex Rose Ritchey '04 Smarty Jones Elliott Jo.Servis KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE PREAKNESS: The two-week turnaround between the Derby and Preakness provides a test to the horses and horsemen who typically don't operate in those tight time restraints. But it's the Derby alumni who maintain a major stranglehood on ―new shooters.‖ With a field limited to 14 starters and much of the filler chaffed away by Baltimore, the Preakness has become the truest test in the Triple Crown. Big upsets are the absolute exception. Oxbow's surprise a year ago marked just the fifth Preakness champ since 1911 to score at 15-1 or more. Horses who ran dynamite races in the Derby but ran into bad pace shapes or traffic trouble have had much recent success in the Preakness. Winners like Lookin At Lucky, Shackleford and Oxbow fit those profiles, not to mention Bodemeister in a repeat runner-up effort two years ago to I'll Have Another. Be leery of a Derby winner who exits a perfect race set-up, sure to be underlay odds in the middle jewel. On the flipside, give a highly thought of Derby disappointment a long look at rebounding at an inflated price from what you saw in Louisville. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Oxbow turned back the clock for jockey Gary Stevens and trainer D. Wayne Lukas with a wire-towire score reminiscent of decades gone by. The Derby's toughest pace survivor found the tempo much easier at Old Hilltop as heavily favored Orb struggled to find a rhythm while a listless 4th. The heaviest favorite since Big Brown in '08, fans were left wondering if Orb had peaked in Louisville. For Lukas and Stevens, it was Preakness wins No. 6 & 3. BRIS Fig 112 109 103 104 105 101 113 114 112 113 Last10 Preakness Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Oxbow 6th '12 I'll Have Another 1st '11 Shackleford 4th '10 Lookin At Lucky 6th '09 Rachel Alexandra 1st '08 Big Brown 1st '07 Curlin 3rd '06 Bernardini 1st '05 Afleet Alex 3rd '04 Smarty Jones 1st Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Oaks (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Withers Stakes (Aqu) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Inside the Preakness Stakes Derby winners rarely misfire in the Preakness, which made Orb's 4th a year ago even more mystifying. They own a 14: 5-4-1 record in Baltimore since 2000. Seven straight Preakness winners have come off two-week layoffs from Churchill (6 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks). Since '83, only three Preakness champs didn't exit the Derby. Nine of the last 12 Derby winners have been made the Preakness favorite. Countdown for the Preakness 21 days until Belmont 118 119 VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS. BELMONT STAKES June 7, 2014 STAKES HISTORY Mike Smith & Cot Campbell defied Father Time with Palace Malice in "13. KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE BELMONT: As American bloodlines have trended toward speed over the last several decades, the ability of horses to negotiate the once ―Test of a Champion‖ at 1 1/2 miles really has become a game of survival. That un-scalable hurdle for many has left some recent Belmont Stakes results appear fluky on the surface. Others have seemed more plausible, including quality animals like Palace Malice and Union Rags the past two years. Preparation for the Belmont Stakes has evolved distinctly into the camp of horsemen skipping the Preakness and accepting the five-week interval between the Derby and Belmont. The last Belmont winner to have even competed in Baltimore was the iron-sided Afleet Alex in '05, who used to train in two-a-day sessions as if he was from another era. Belmont Park's ―big sandy‖ surface easily rates the most ―horse-for-course‖ of any of the Triple Crown footings. Simply put: If many factors appear comparable, horses who have run here in the past with success should be given a lean over those who have not proven themselves on the surface. Resist the temptation for deep, home-run closers who you think will relish 1 1/2 miles. This race just isn't won that way most years; it's a grinder's trip. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Palace Malice, off a pop-and-stop 12th in the Derby, announced his presence on the national scene with a game victory over Preakness winner Oxbow, with Derby winner Orb a non-threatening 3rd. Mike Smith proved experience was every bit as important as youth with a crafty ride. HANDICAPPER'S AIDES: Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners '13 Palace Malice '12 Union Rags '11 Ruler On Ice '10 Drosselmeyer '09 Summer Bird '08 Da'Tara '07 Rags To Riches '06 Jazil '05 Afleet Alex '04 Birdstone Pletcher Velazquez Matz Valdivia Breen Smith Mott Desormeaux Ice A. Garcia Zito Velazquez Pletcher Jara McLaughlin Rose Ritchey Prado Zito 12th 7th 2nd 2nd 6th 2nd 1st 4th 1st 8th Smith BRIS Fig 100 104 107 97 105 106 106 109 107 110 Last 10 Belmont Stakes Winners' Preps '13 Palace Malice '12 Union Rags '11 Ruler On Ice '10 Drosselmeyer '09 Summer Bird '08 Da'Tara '07 Rags To Riches '06 Jazil '05 Afleet Alex '04 Birdstone Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Federico Tesio (Pim) Dwyer (Bel) Kentucky Derby (CD) Barbaro (Pim) Kentucky Oaks (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Preakness (Pim) Kentucky Derby (CD) Inside the Belmont Stakes Running the Derby, skipping the Preakness and then heading to the Belmont has been en vogue in recent years, as half of the past 10 winners fit the profile. However, it's worth noting that none of the five finished better than 4th in the Derby and the average finish position was 7th, so don't be afraid to give an also-ran a long look in a race where sane handicapping logic can often go out the window at the demanding 1 1/2-mile distance. 120 121 FOLKS I FOLLOW By Jeremy Plonk I love what I do covering the Triple Crown pursuit and admit my slant on it all comes from a horseplayer's perspective. But there are many talented journalists working the beat, and it's important we recognize the best in the business. After all, these are all folks I follow in keeping up to date with the happenings. Jennie Rees Louisville Courier-Journal Jay Privman Daily Racing Form/ NBC Sports Group You won't find a better news man on the scene. Privman consistently has the info before anyone else. That's why I don't mind being the second-most important "J.P." on the trail. On TV, radio or print, he's the go-to guy for what's breaking. Jill Byrne Churchill Downs / Kentuckyderby.com The First Lady of Turf Writing. Few work harder getting to the bottom of a story, and her stack of Eclipse Awards proves that point. When I was an undergrad cub reporter in '93, I was assigned to shadow Jennie during Derby Week while participating in Churchill Downs' Collegiate Sports Journalism Seminar. Her introduction to covering the game changed my life's course. Little did I know then I was learning from the best in the biz. Jeff Siegel HRTV No matter the sport, fans listen to every word an announcer says, looking to be that wiseguy who thinks they know more than the socalled expert. I'm amazed how prepared Siegel is, but more importantly how sound his opinions are on evaluating horses. Lots of folks say stuff to try and appear smart. Siegel speaks smart and lets the looks come to him. Best features: Steve Haskin, Bloodhorse.com, hands-down today's best storyteller. Best on the dial: Dead-heat, Steve Byk and Dave Johnson–both on SiriusXM programming. Best Twitter: @Derbycontenders. Thorough. Best Before 9 am: Mike Welsch, DRF.com. I've gotten to know how hard Jill Byrne works in recent years as a great supporter of the Night School national fan education program. Her leadership online has transformed the way Churchill Downs covers the months leading up to the Derby with a brilliant online presentation from workouts to replays to network-quality video reports. Add in the fact she's the best on-track paddock analyst in the game today when eye-balling a horse. Dick Downey Thedowneyprofile.com If you follow college football seriously – and I mean seriously – then you know of Phil Steele and his in-depth I'm-not-here-tobe-flashy publications that simply are treasure troves of information. Dick Downey is the Phil Steele of the Triple Crown trail, and that's a tremendous compliment coming from me – a stats junkie. E-mail me your go-to folks: firstname.lastname@example.com ____________________________________ 122 7568 7505 7593 7541 7321 7322 7323 BOLITA BOY BOND HOLDER BOURBONIZE BOYRBON SENSE BREITLING FLYER BROTHERSOFTHETIME BURNING WARRIOR C. ZEE CAIRO PRINCE CALIFORNIA CHROME CANDY BOY CANDY DANDY CANZONI CAN THE MAN CANDIP CAPTAIN'S AFFAIR CAPTAINOF THE NILE CASIGUAPO CAVU CELTIC MOON CHARGE NOW CHAS'S LEGACY CHELIOS CHERUBIM* CHIEF POWER CHOMSKY CHITU CLASSIC GIACNROLL CLEBURNE CLOVEELLY COASTLINE COLTIMUS PRIME COMMISSIONER COMMANDING CURVE COMMANDMENT CONDO CLOSING CONQUEST WARRIOR CONQUEST TITAN CONQUEST TWO STEP COOL COWBOY COOL SAMURAI CORFU COUP DE GRACE COUSIN STEPHEN 300/1 200/1 200/1 250/1 300/1 200/1 175/1 275/1 150/1 300/1 175/1 150/1 150/1 175/1 200/1 275/1 300/1 100/1 175/1 150/1 225/1 175/1 400/1 225/1 275/1 250/1 250/1 275/1 75/1 250/1 150/1 200/1 60/1 125/1 225/1 300/1 250/1 125/1 500/1 300/1 250/1 300/1 60/1 150/1 300/1 50/1 200/1 250/1 300/1 300/1 275/1 275/1 25/1 275/1 50/1 150/1 150/1 175/1 200/1 225/1 300/1 75/1 175/1 150/1 225/1 125/1 200/1 225/1 400/1 300/1 200/1 125/1 65/1 250/1 85/1 200/1 60/1 125/1 150/1 300/1 250/1 85/1 500/1 300/1 75/1 250/1 35/1 100/1 OFFICIAL KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURES ODDS AS OF DECEMBER 30, 2013 GET ODDS UPDATES TWICE WEEKLY ALL SEASON LONG AT … COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM 7512 7624 7301 7616 7302 7515 7303 7304 7527 7306 7494 7463 7307 7467 7628 7308 7570 7582 7634 7310 7311 7312 7578 7560 7636 7313 7315 7316 7317 7318 AARONS ORIENT ACT* ALAMO ALBANO ALBERTS HOPE ALL FOR US ALL IN BLUE ALMOST FAMOUS ALSONO AMERICAN PRIDE AMHERST STREET AMIS HOLIDAY AOTEAROA ARTEMPUS ARTEMUS COALMINE* ASLAN ASSERTING BEAR AWESOME SKY A STEP AHEAD* BARDSTOWN BASE CASE SCENARIO BASHART BE WELL BEACH HUT BELLY OF THE WHALE* BEST PLAN YET BIG SUGAR SODA BISQUE BOBBY'S KITTEN BOJI MOON 225/1 225/1 200/1 275/1 250/1 250/1 300/1 225/1 350/1 175/1 300/1 225/1 350/1 200/1 250/1 275/1 275/1 200/1 275/1 300/1 350/1 125/1 200/1 225/1 225/1 275/1 125/1 350/1 150/1 250/1 225/1 100/1 200/1 275/1 150/1 250/1 300/1 40/1 400/1 175/1 225/1 175/1 250/1 200/1 250/1 275/1 275/1 150/1 275/1 200/1 350/1 175/1 225/1 200/1 225/1 175/1 150/1 300/1 45/1 300/1 7606 7522 7324 7325 7326 7617 7327 7464 7328 7329 7330 7607 7332 7333 7513 7595 7631 7334 7335 7602 7485 7336 7576 7473 7600 7337 7584 7603 7458 7338 7339 7340 7596 7544 7341 7566 7565 123 7499 7549 7613 7343 7344 7536 7345 7346 7604 7517 7348 7539 7349 7350 7469 7351 7579 7352 7555 7572 7598 7531 7510 7466 7354 7540 7625 7355 7530 7356 7357 7621 7493 7487 7358 7471 7359 7583 7542 7587 7360 7361 7496 7538 CRAFTSMAN CULPRIT DA BEARS DANZA DEBT CEILING DECLAN'S FAST CAT DEL RIO HARBOR DIAMOND BACHELOR DIVINE VIEW DOBRA HISTORIA DOUBLE WHAMMY DOWNEY GAP DUE DILIGENCE DUNKIN BEND EAST HALL EIRIGH ELECTRIC EDDIE ELEVATED EMOTIONAL STROLL ENTERPRISING EXIT STAGE LEFT FANTASTIC VOW FASCINATING (F) FINANCIAL MOGUL FOREVER JUANITO FULL METAL FUZZY LOGIC* GALLIVANTING GENERAL A ROD GENERAL JACK GHOSTLY WONDER GIANCARLO* GIOVANNI BOLDINI GIVE NO QUARTER GLOBAL VIEW GO FIRST GO GREELEY GOLD HAWK GONE AS WIND GOODNEWSISNONEWS 275/1 125/1 250/1 300/1 250/1 250/1 350/1 125/1 250/1 150/1 275/1 250/1 125/1 100/1 250/1 150/1 250/1 300/1 225/1 200/1 175/1 225/1 250/1 225/1 400/1 250/1 200/1 350/1 250/1 125/1 300/1 250/1 250/1 300/1 250/1 275/1 225/1 100/1 250/1 175/1 225/1 50/1 225/1 200/1 125/1 125/1 250/1 100/1 350/1 250/1 350/1 50/1 250/1 150/1 275/1 250/1 175/1 250/1 250/1 200/1 200/1 300/1 225/1 85/1 175/1 175/1 225/1 85/1 400/1 250/1 250/1 350/1 150/1 125/1 300/1 250/1 100/1 200/1 75/1 275/1 300/1 35/1 250/1 175/1 300/1 60/1 225/1 150/1 7497 7627 7585 7363 7564 7364 7482 7365 7366 7367 7368 7369 7553 7370 7371 7638 7571 7548 7622 7561 7372 7597 7626 7577 7545 7373 7374 7375 7476 7633 7507 7590 7470 7377 7514 7378 7379 7380 7381 7535 7580 7511 7618 7383 GUERRE GROUPTHINK* HARBOUR BOUND HARPOON HARTFORD HAVANA HEAD QUARTERS HEART TO HEART HERE'S JOHNNY HE'S GOT TALENT HI FASHIONED HIRSCHY HOLD EVERYTHING HOLLYWOOD TALENT HONOR CODE HOT HEIR SKIER* HY KODIAC WARRIOR ICHIBAN WARRIOR ICY RIDE* IDE BE COOL I EARNED IT BABY I'LL WRAP IT UP INDIAN SMOKE* INDIANAPOLIS INNOVATION ECONOMY 275/1 200/1 200/1 125/1 225/1 100/1 275/1 300/1 250/1 350/1 350/1 250/1 225/1 350/1 45/1 300/1 275/1 225/1 175/1 300/1 300/1 225/1 200/1 125/1 175/1 100/1 250/1 175/1 200/1 400/1 250/1 200/1 175/1 200/1 225/1 275/1 300/1 250/1 150/1 200/1 175/1 300/1 300/1 350/1 275/1 200/1 200/1 100/1 100/1 35/1 250/1 300/1 250/1 350/1 300/1 250/1 225/1 250/1 10/1 300/1 125/1 200/1 150/1 200/1 300/1 225/1 250/1 60/1 175/1 85/1 150/1 100/1 125/1 400/1 150/1 150/1 200/1 150/1 200/1 200/1 300/1 85/1 85/1 125/1 175/1 250/1 300/1 400/1 INTENSE HOLIDAY INTERCHANGE IN TROUBLE IRISH YOU WELL JOINT CUSTODY* JOSE SEA VIEW JUBA KARMA KING KENDALL'S BOY KIDS RULE KING CYRUS KNOCK EM FLAT KOBE'S BACK KRISTO LADDIE BOY LAWMAKER LENGEND FOREVER LIFE IS A JOY LONG ON VALUE GOT SHADES GRAND ARRIVAL GREAT WHITE EAGLE GREEN MASK 124 7537 7586 7611 7552 7384 7385 7386 7490 7387 7520 7528 7554 7491 7389 7501 7461 7562 7605 7390 7391 7615 7639 7393 7394 7526 7519 7396 7398 7479 7612 7460 7399 7550 7637 7400 7474 7594 7609 7558 7401 7402 7546 7403 7404 LOOK QUICKLY LOTSA MISCHIEF LOUIES FLOWER LOUISIANA FLYBOY LUICCI LUNARWARFARE MACHO TRINI MANHATTAN JOHNNIE MARVIN'S MIRACLE MASTER LIGHTNING MATADOR MATTERHORN MATUSZAK MEADOWOOD MEDAL COUNT MEXIKOMA MICHAELMAS MIDNIGHT HAWK MISCONNECT MISTER SPECIAL MONOPOLIZE MORNING CALM* MOSLER MR PALADIN MR SPEAKER MY CONQUESTADORY MY CORINTHIAN NO NAY NEVER NOBLE MOON NOBLE CORNERSTONE NOOSITO NONE LIKE NOLAN NOTABILITY ONLY I KNOW* ONTOLOGY OOGELEY EYE ORANGE GROVE OUR CARAVAN OUTSTRIP PABLO DEL MONTE PACIFIC PEACE MISSION PECORINO PENNMARYDEL 200/1 500/1 150/1 200/1 250/1 175/1 350/1 150/1 200/1 85/1 150/1 250/1 85/1 150/1 175/1 150/1 150/1 200/1 100/1 200/1 85/1 275/1 125/1 200/1 250/1 250/1 350/1 250/1 250/1 150/1 300/1 175/1 200/1 225/1 250/1 150/1 125/1 250/1 125/1 225/1 200/1 250/1 150/1 300/1 200/1 500/1 150/1 250/1 250/1 175/1 350/1 125/1 300/1 150/1 200/1 100/1 200/1 150/1 200/1 50/1 150/1 65/1 75/1 150/1 85/1 275/1 40/1 250/1 125/1 200/1 350/1 250/1 50/1 85/1 300/1 175/1 250/1 225/1 250/1 275/1 100/1 250/1 125/1 150/1 150/1 125/1 150/1 300/1 7489 7481 7406 7407 7601 7529 7632 7408 7409 7608 7534 7523 7410 7559 7411 7412 7413 7524 7574 7488 7457 7503 7630 7415 7614 7416 7418 7483 7420 7532 7518 7462 7495 7421 7422 7423 7424 7425 7426 7557 7547 7428 7429 7430 PLUG CATHCER POKER PLAYER POWER GENERATION PRINCE BERNARDINI PROMINENCE PURE SENSATION PROCEED* PROTONICO PURPLE SKY RAMBLING RICHIE RANKHASPRIVLEGES RARE EAGLE REBRANDED RIA ANTONIA RIDE ON CURLIN RISE UP RIVER DANCER ROGER ROCKET ROMAN UNBRIDLED ROPE A DOPE ROUNDUPTHELUTE ROUND ROYAL BANKER* RUN FOR LOGISTICS SAMRAAT SASSICAIA SCHOOLOFHARDROCKS 250/1 200/1 225/1 225/1 200/1 225/1 250/1 150/1 125/1 250/1 275/1 175/1 275/1 400/1 100/1 225/1 225/1 250/1 200/1 225/1 250/1 200/1 150/1 250/1 200/1 300/1 175/1 275/1 150/1 250/1 200/1 275/1 250/1 175/1 100/1 200/1 225/1 175/1 175/1 275/1 150/1 125/1 150/1 225/1 300/1 250/1 200/1 225/1 175/1 225/1 250/1 150/1 150/1 250/1 150/1 300/1 225/1 100/1 85/1 35/1 225/1 250/1 150/1 200/1 250/1 125/1 150/1 300/1 200/1 300/1 75/1 250/1 125/1 10/1 175/1 275/1 250/1 150/1 85/1 200/1 225/1 300/1 175/1 250/1 150/1 250/1 300/1 250/1 SECRETARY OF STATE SHADOW BANKING SHARED BELIEF SHEIKINATOR SKYDREAMIN SIR JOHN HAWKINS SMACK SMACK SMART COVER SMARTY'S ECHO SOLEMNLY SWEAR SOLITARY RANGER SO LONESOME SON OF DIXIE SON OF A PREACHER SOUND OF FREEDOM SOUPER LUCKY SOUTHERN BLESSING 125 7431 7599 7551 7433 7619 7434 7588 7435 7437 7563 7486 7573 7438 7525 7439 7623 7440 7441 7442 7443 7444 7484 7592 7504 7589 7446 7447 7629 7636 7567 7454 7610 7455 7591 7498 7448 7521 7502 7477 7533 7452 7453 7620 7456 SOUTHERN FREEDOM SPADINA ROAD SPRINGBOARD STATION HOUSE STORM STORMY DEACON STREET GENT STRONG MANDATE SUPERSIZER SURFING USA SURVIVAL SWEET DADDY TAMARANDO TAP IT RICH TAPITURE THE ADMIRAL* THREE POINT LUKE TIGER BOURBON TIZNOWFORAMERICA TOBY'S CREDENTIALS TONY ADAMS TOORMORE TOP BILLING TOURIST TRAIL BLAZE TUSCAN GETAWAY TWANG UNCLE SIGH* UNDERTAKER* UNKNOWN ROAD VEGAS STRIP VICAR'S IN TROUBLE VILLAGE WARRIOR WALT WAR COMMAND WARLEIGH WE MISS ARTIE WICKED STRONG WILDCAT RED WINE TIPSTER WIRED BRYAN WRY YARD LINE* YES I'M LUCKY 225/1 275/1 200/1 300/1 250/1 275/1 175/1 40/1 250/1 200/1 250/1 250/1 85/1 125/1 100/1 125/1 275/1 250/1 125/1 225/1 300/1 275/1 150/1 225/1 200/1 325/1 250/1 150/1 250/1 85/1 275/1 200/1 250/1 500/1 225/1 225/1 100/1 200/1 300/1 200/1 150/1 150/1 175/1 275/1 175/1 275/1 200/1 400/1 250/1 275/1 175/1 30/1 200/1 70/1 200/1 250/1 40/1 25/1 22/1 100/1 275/1 200/1 250/1 225/1 300/1 225/1 75/1 125/1 125/1 325/1 250/1 150/1 250/1 75/1 275/1 200/1 250/1 300/1 150/1 225/1 100/1 50/1 250/1 175/1 125/1 150/1 175/1 275/1 PROP WAGERS Qualifying Points Needed to Make Kentucky Derby Field: Open Current OVER 20.5 -110 -110 UNDER 20.5 -110 -110 Official winning time of the 2014 Kentucky Derby: Open Current OVER 2:02.20 -110 -110 UNDER 2:02.20 -110 -110 Will any horse sweep the Triple Crown?: Open Current YES +650 +650 NO -850 -850 GET ODDS UPDATES TWICE 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