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vintage space. A proper place to place a pinot. A modern bar classic in double walled stainless. When not catching dribbles, it's a bowl for nibbles.
Details and Dimensions
stainless steel shiny wine coaster. 5.5" dia. x 1.5"H
- Double-walled construction
- Stainless steel
- Hand wash
- Made in India
Overall DimensionsHeight: 1.5" Diameter: 5.5"
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If you are not satisfied with your Stock furniture, rug or rug pad purchase, you must contact us within 7 days of delivery or pickup to arrange a return. The item must be returned within 30 days of delivery or pickup. The item will be inspected upon return, and a refund amount will be determined based on its condition. For furniture orders placed online, please call us at 800.606.6252. For orders placed through a store, please contact the store where the sale originated.
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Results 1 to 3 of 3
Thread: The Mechanic(WIP)
March 6th, 2008 #1
The Mechanic(WIP)
an alien mechanic I am working on. I plan to have him bristling with all sorts of tools. Right now I would just like some suggestions on how I can improve him.
- Similar Threads
- Art: mechanic
- Airline Mechanic- Help
- Mechanic Guy
- Art: the mechanic
Hide this ad by registering as a memberMarch 6th, 2008 #2
its looking pretty cool to me right now!
ct say that i see anything wrong with... except maybe that left elbow? (our left)
id stylize his costume more to make him look the part at the blink of an eye... right now his hat made me think "SURGEON!" lol so maybe more mechanic-related details, like the baseball cap and the work suit or smthg wd make the design more effective?
keep us posted!
March 6th, 2008 #3
pretty cool idea,
no mutch to crit: the proportions are quiet correct but i got a problem with the perspective of his bag ... lookes somekind of strange but its just the beginning i think we dont have to care about this case anymore some updates later.
in my opinion he needs somekind of a bulletbeld, but with mechnical tool right over his torso. keep going! so far .... lateman
Searching for female mentor! ... will pay with love.
Website COMING SOON!
NEW Sketchbook

subset: commoncrawl


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7/22/2015 » 7/25/2015Knit & Crochet Show 2015 Attendee Registration
The pattern includes a basic sock with two cuff variations (a lace cuffed sock,and a sock with small flowers along the top cuff decorated with seed beads). The socks are crocheted with fingering or sock weight yarn so that they are very usable and wearable. Fits women's shoe size 6-10.
Pattern by Jackie Young


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Pet Sitters
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This page has been viewed 16 times this month, and 659 times total.
Pet SittersPet Sitters (1960) - Mister Magoo (Television) Cartoon Episode Guide
This page has been viewed 16 times this month, and 659 times total.
- Mister Magoo (Television) Cartoon Episode Guide
- UPA Productions
- Distributed by: Columbia Pictures Television
- Cartoon Characters: Mr. Magoo, Mother Magoo, Hamlet the Hamster, Bowser the Cat, Wheeler, Dealer.
- Originally Released in 1960.
- Color
- Running Time: 5 minutes.
Cartoon Summary:
While attending a concert with her son Quincy, Mother Magoo leaves her canary and her cat in the care of Wheeler and Dealer. The cat tries to eat the bird, but the two kids put a stop to the cat's antics.
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text:
So far, the Spanish bailout will not stipulate any new austerity measures and instead will regulate the banking sector.
Let's stipulate that the fate of the Republic does not turn on the state of Sally Quinn's social life.
He wants the law to stipulate that, "no judge will remain in office [who] tried to use Sharia law."
1620s, from Latin stipulatus, past participle of stipulari (see stipulation). Related: Stipulated; stipulating.


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[The Wrap] Our next guest on TheWrap's "Drinking With the Stars" went pro at age 7.
Destined for awards » Continued
[The Wrap] Our next guest on TheWrap's "Drinking With the Stars" went pro at age 7.
Destined for awards » Continued
[Deadspin] Earlier this week, I solicited entries for our upcoming Great Moments in Being Caught J*rking Off. And there were many fine submissions, but one » Continued
[Blind Gossip] Have you ever wondered why a young star would quit a TV show at the height of its popularity? This young actress said it was because she wanted to » Continued
[Hollywood Street King] Today's blind item subject previously crowned his » Continued
[PopBitch] While most people know this rock guitarist for being married to a society beauty, which of his New York-based school friends remember him chiefly as the boy who shat in her swimming pool when they were kids?
Rock Guitarist:
His Wife:
His School Friend:
[Gawker] Surprise, surprise!
A leading man dropped in unannounced to » Continued
[New York Post] Which Hollywood star who lives in New York was caught in a compromising position at performance venue » Continued
[Naughty But Nice Rob] Which male TV host is terrified that his str*pper past might come back to haunt him?
Now in » Continued
[New York Post] Which athlete has fooled the world with an uber-squeaky-clean image but in reality "[bleeped] everybody in college?"
Team or Sport:
[Blind Gossip] These two very attractive actresses were both stars of multiple television series, although they have not starred on the same show. Both are intelligent and well-educated. Both have been nominated for multiple awards, although neither has won any big awards.
What few people know is that the two actresses were » Continued
Copyright © 2015 BLIND GOSSIP - All Rights Reserved


text:
By early May, the Expos still hadn't picked up the steam we all remember but they had quite the exciting week in the finale against the Dodgers followed by trio of games in Atlanta before returning to the Big O for a three-game set with the Mets.
May 4 saw the Expos load the bases with nobody out against Todd Worrell, who struck out Wil Cordero swinging, then reliever Kevin Gross (ironically enough) also whiffed Lou Frazier before Tim Spehr singled to score Marquis Grissom to start the week off right for the 'Spos with a 5-4 win in the final of a series against Los Angeles.
Montreal then traveled to Fulton County Stadium for a big early-season match-up with the Braves that opened up with a 5-0 blanking, followed by a heart-breaking second game that had Jeff Faserro pitching into the final frame with a 1-0 lead before giving up a game-winning, two-run homer to Mark Lemke of all people. Ken Hill then out-dueled John Smoltz over seven innings of three-hit, five-strike out ball before stepping aside for pinch-hitter Randy Milligan who delivered a sacrifice fly that plated Cordero and John Wetteland came in to close the door on his first save of the year in a 1-0 triumph.
The Expos closed out the week at home with the Mets, playing three more one-run affairs, two of them losses. Despite a two-run wallop from Larry Walker and four walks from Cordero on May 9, Mel Rojas gave up a solo shot to David Segui that proved a winner for New York 5-4. The next day, Moises Alou rocketed a two-run blast off of Bret Saberhagen, but John Wetteland blew his fourth save of the season on an RBI single by John Cangelosi and followed that up by surrendering a bomb to Joe Orsulak in the tenth. Frazier singled and stole second with two outs in the home half, but the Metropolitans hung on to claim the first two games of the series 3-2.
Finally on May 11, Frazier and Darrin Fletcher both went 3-for-4 while Pedro Martinez punched out eight over seven strong and Rojas notched his ninth save of the campaign to finish out the week on a winning note 4-3.
Montreal finished 3-4 over those seven days, going 3-3 in one-run games and sat 3.5 games out of first with a mark of 18-15.
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Most of the accused not jailed, data show
CORPUS CHRISTI - Most of the accused not jailed, data show
By Sara Foley firstname.lastname@example.com 361-886-3767
Susan cradled her cellphone in her palm and dialed the numbers as she had before.
Her finger hovered over the "send" button.
"Do I really want to do this?" she thought. If she did, she couldn't go back, she told herself.
The other times she almost called, something always stopped her. Last time, her boyfriend kicked through the bathroom door and snatched her phone away before she could hit send. Once, the sight of him turning into the driveway interrupted her plan to tell her father the secret.
Living with him meant living in fear of being raped again. Living without him, Susan feared, meant living on the streets.
If she ran away without calling, she knew he would do it again, to someone else. She pressed the button.
Many sexual assault victims don't make that phone call, officials say.
When they do, some still don't find justice.
Few people in Nueces County who report sexual assault see their attackers put in jail, much less for nine years, the sentence Susan's former boyfriend agreed to during a last-minute plea bargain earlier this year.
A Caller-Times analysis of sexual assault cases that went through the legal system since January 2010 found that justice is rare for victims, with fewer than one in 30 cases of reported sexual assault ending with jail time.
Charges are filed in about one of every 6 sexual assaults reported to police, according to the analysis.
The chances of those people charged going to jail is less than one in 5.
For those people charged who don't agree to go to jail to avoid a trial, the likelihood of jail time decreases to fewer than one in 12.
The Corpus Christi Police Department received 251 reports of sexual assaults of adults between January 2010 and June 15. Only 42 of those ended in charges or an active case file with the district attorney's office. After charges are filed, the chances of the district attorney's office taking the case to trial are less than one in 12, the analysis found. It's most likely that the case will be dismissed somewhere in the process, as more than half were in 2010.
A crack in the case against someone accused of sexual assault damages the chances of justice worse than discrepancies in other types of criminal cases. That's because society, and jurors, have unrealistic expectations for the victims of sexual assault, District Attorney Mark Skurka said.
Before he prosecuted a sexual assault case, he admits he imagined rape victims the same stereotypical way many people do: as a young woman, walking alone at night in tight clothing, who is attacked and beaten by a stranger.
"I've never seen a case like that," he said.
Instead, he sees women who have romantic relationships with their attackers, like Susan, which is not her real name. The Caller-Times does not name victims of sexual assault unless they want to be named.
Although much of their relationship involved consensual sex, there were incidents where he became violent and forceful, and she tried to fight back and told him to stop. He didn't, but she didn't leave. She doesn't know why.
"It's embarrassing," she said. "I was in a relationship with him. Who would believe me?"
It's often hard to understand why sexual assault victims react to the rape they way they do. Some fight back with a vengeance, getting bruised and cut in the process, which gives police evidence. But others don't resist and are left with little physical evidence that the sex was an attack and not consensual. In some cases, women allow sexual foreplay and then tell their partner to stop. When he doesn't stop, he might not think it's rape and she does.
Victims often delay telling police or recant statements after they make them.
They rarely are innocent girls who couldn't find a ride one night and walked down the wrong street, Skurka said. They can be elderly, addicts, prostitutes, homeless or on drugs or alcohol, making them unsure what led to the attack. They may not tell police the same account as they tell prosecutors, which can be enough to derail a case.
Victim's Role
Although prosecutors declined to take charges on about 15 percent of the cases reported to police, more cases — about 23 percent of all reports made to police — ended because the victims either withdrew statements, stopped cooperating with investigators or asked to drop the case.
That doesn't mean the victim doesn't want justice or made up the accusation, said Teri Lynn Hodges, the rape crisis services coordinator at the Women's Shelter of South Texas.
"They begin to question themselves," Hodges said. "They start thinking of the humiliation."
Volunteers and workers at the shelter aren't there to tell women whether to file charges, Hodges said.
"Sometimes for victims, the best way to move on and heal is to let go of the criminal case and move on," she said.
In some cases, police suspect victims have ulterior motives for reporting the incident, specifically during child custody battles or divorce cases.
"You have so many cases that aren't reported, but then you have cases where you think, 'Did something happen? Is she just using the police to cover her up?'" said Corpus Christi Police Detective Jason Smith.
Even when police collect evidence proving the victim and the accused attacker were in the same place and had sex, that only solves half of the legal issue. Juries must be convinced that the sex was forced.
"Not only does a prosecutor have to prove something happened beyond a reasonable doubt, but they're dealing with consent, which is something that isn't clearly understood in our society," said Michelle Dempsey, a former prosecutor, Villanova School of Law professor and author of "Prosecuting Domestic Violence: A Philosophical Analysis."
"There are still people out there who think that 'no' means 'yes,' " she said.
The victims also have to testify about the relationship and attack, which often is enough to discourage many from pursuing charges.
"You're opening up your life, your relationships to public scrutiny," Dempsey said. "You have to talk about the most intimate details of your life and then the defense attorney is going to try to show that you're lying about it. It's too much for some people to relive."
All those factors contribute to a reluctance to put sexual assault cases in front of a jury. Most often, the factor working against victims is the time they took to report the crime, Skurka said.
The longer victims wait to report sexual assaults, the less likely the perpetrator is to face jail time, he said. Physical evidence of a rape sometimes fades within hours. In the days victims may wait to report the crime, bruises fade, scrapes heal and all traces of DNA evidence wash away. Victims might wash or throw away their clothes.
It's common for women to call police and tell officers that they think they were raped, but aren't sure, Smith said. Their memories of the night are fuzzy and they wake up partially clothed or in strange surroundings, he said.
In those cases, which happen more often during spring break but occur on average about once a month, police and prosecutors find it difficult to press charges for an attack no one is certain took place. Police count those cases as a sexual assault, even when they're not sure.
This all makes it less likely for people to face charges and creates more chances for the case to get dismissed or lead to probation or a light sentence before reaching trial, Skurka said.
Women have told him they burned the clothes they were wearing, threw out bedding and then waited months to report the crime. Although police and attorneys are trained to understand the delays, it still can hurt the perceptions of jurors.
"It creates the question in many people's minds, 'If this really happened, why did you wait a day and a half?" Skurka said. "I've had people wait 10 years."
By that time, few prosecutors want to risk taking the case to a jury that has the same perceptions about rape as most of society does. Jurors expect DNA evidence, bruises and scrapes and get lost on confusing story lines, he said.
CASES Dismissed
Most sexual assault cases that were resolved in 2010 ended when the charges were tossed out, the analysis found.
Prosecutors drop cases because of problems with evidence, changing stories from the victims, victims changing their mind about pressing charges and sometimes for reasons that leave no paper trail in the criminal justice system, according to records released by the Nueces County District Attorney's Office.
It's a problem Dempsey has seen nationwide, which she said could only be fixed by systemic changes in the legal system encouraging prosecutors to take every possible case to court and increase accountability for dismissed cases.
"There is a huge amount of skepticism surrounding sexual assault. Some of that is bound to come over into the legal community," she said. "By allowing police, or lawyers to just say, 'The case isn't strong enough,' it could be that they're dismissing it because they just don't believe the victim."
In Nueces County, cases can be dismissed when a person accused is charged in another case, when a victim changes her mind about charges or when key witnesses, sometimes the victims themselves, don't show up for hearings. Most of the cases, however, are dismissed by grand juries, which decide there isn't enough evidence to move forward with a trial. That's a symptom of the difficulty of prosecuting the cases, Skurka said.
If prosecutors aren't sure, they most often will present the case to a grand jury, which will decide whether the case moves forward.
Weaker cases get weeded out.
When attackers are punished, the overwhelming majority of them agreed to jail time or probation through a plea bargain.
Those save the victim from going through a trial, although it's not done without consulting them first, Skurka said.
In at least one sexual assault case that went to court last year, the accused rapist still was on probation from a previous sexual assault case. In his first offense, he was given probation after he sexually assaulted a woman he met while working at a home improvement store. Months later, while on probation, he sexually assaulted a woman at the beach. That time, he was sent to prison.
When offenders get probation, they're often still required to register as sex offenders with the state.
That doesn't always prevent more rapes, as Susan learned.
Susan's boyfriend raped her early in their relationship that spanned nearly a year. With no money, no car and no job, she overlooked the attack because the place she lived with him was the first permanent home she'd had in years.
Then one day she found a form in their mail that indicated he was a registered sex offender. When she asked him about it, he laughed it off.
Weeks later, after another night of heavy drinking, he attacked her again. When he left the house, she knew if she didn't get away that time, he'd rape her again. If she left without reporting it, she worried he'd just find someone else.
"I didn't have a good conscience about leaving him out in society," she said. "It's kind of empowering. I got a sense of freedom. It happened and I can't change that. I can do something about what happens in the future."
Call the Women's Shelter of South Texas 24-hour hotline at 881-8888.
Subscribe to the Caller-Times
Need Help? Call us at 1-800-566-8098.
Monday-Friday: 6am-3pm / Saturday: 7am-11am / Sunday: 7am-11am


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2007 Ford Freestyle Ratings
Getting firsthand information from an actual car owner is one sure way to get an idea of car performance once it leaves the lot. Autobytel features real consumer reviews that give the unbiased experience of a car.
2007 Ford Freestyle
Pros: warning for backing up
Cons: difficulty getting to roof carrrierI have been extrememly happy with this car it is very dependable and great for trips with grandkids
- Recommend this vehicle to a friend? Yes
- How long have you owned this vehicle? 2 years


text:
Pronunciation: Ronthon
Added on: 2013-10-19 Listened: 22 timesin: France
Pronunciation in French [fr]
- Pronunciation by sicerabibax (Male from France)
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1. ground - noun
· the solid part of the earth's surface; "the plane turned away from the sea and moved back over land"; "the earth shook for several minutes"; "he dropped the logs on the ground"
Synonym(s): land, dry_land, earth, solid_ground, terra_firma
Hypernym(s): object, physical_object
2. ground - noun
· a rational motive for a belief or action; "the reason that war was declared"; "the grounds for their declaration"
Synonym(s): reason
Hypernym(s): rational_motive
3. ground - noun
· the loose soft material that makes up a large part of the land surface; "they dug into the earth outside the church"
Synonym(s): earth
4. ground - noun
· a relation that provides the foundation for something; "they were on a friendly footing"; "he worked on an interim basis"
Hypernym(s): foundation
5. ground - noun
· a position to be won or defended in battle (or as if in battle); "they gained ground step by step"; "they fought to regain the lost ground"
Hypernym(s): military_position, position
6. ground - noun
· the part of a scene (or picture) that lies behind objects in the foreground; "he posed her against a background of rolling hills"
Synonym(s): background
Hypernym(s): view, aspect, prospect, scene, vista, panorama
7. ground - noun
· material in the top layer of the surface of the earth in which plants can grow (especially with reference to its quality or use); "the land had never been plowed"; "good agricultural soil"
Hypernym(s): object, physical_object
8. ground - noun
· a relatively homogeneous percept extending back of the figure on which attention is focused
Hypernym(s): percept, perception, perceptual_experience
Antonym(s): figure
9. ground - noun
· a connection between an electrical device and a large conducting body, such as the earth (which is taken to be at zero voltage)
Synonym(s): earth
Hypernym(s): connection, connexion, connector, connecter, connective
10. ground - noun
· (art) the surface (as a wall or canvas) prepared to take the paint for a painting
Hypernym(s): surface
11. ground - noun
· the first or preliminary coat of paint or size applied to a surface
Synonym(s): flat_coat, primer, priming, primer_coat, priming_coat, undercoat
Hypernym(s): coat_of_paint
12. ground - verb
· fix firmly and stably; "anchor the lamppost in concrete"
Synonym(s): anchor
Hypernym(s): fasten, fix, secure
13. ground - verb
· confine or restrict to the ground; "After the accident, they grounded the plane and the pilot"
Hypernym(s): restrain, confine, hold, constrain
14. ground - verb
· place or put on the ground
Hypernym(s): put, set, place, pose, position, lay
15. ground - verb
· instruct someone in the fundamentals of a subject
Hypernym(s): teach, learn, instruct
16. ground - verb
· bring to the ground; "the storm grounded the ship"
Synonym(s): strand, run_aground
Hypernym(s): land
17. ground - verb
· hit or reach the ground
Synonym(s): run_aground
Hypernym(s): reach, make, attain, hit, arrive_at, gain
18. ground - verb
· throw to the ground in order to stop play and avoid being tackled behind the line of scrimmage
Hypernym(s): throw
19. ground - verb
· hit a groundball; "he grounded to the second baseman"
Hypernym(s): hit
20. ground - verb
· hit onto the ground
Hypernym(s): hit
21. ground - verb
· cover with a primer; apply a primer to
Hypernym(s): paint
22. ground - verb
· connect to a ground; "ground the electrical connections for safety reasons"
Hypernym(s): connect, link, tie, link_up
23. ground - verb
· use as a basis for; found on; "base a claim on some observation"
Synonym(s): establish, base, found
24. grind - verb
· press or grind with a crushing noise
Synonym(s): crunch, cranch, craunch
Hypernym(s): press
25. grind - verb
· make a grating or grinding sound by rubbing together; "grate one's teeth in anger"
Synonym(s): grate
Hypernym(s): break_up, fragment, fragmentize, fragmentise
26. grind - verb
· work hard; "She was digging away at her math homework"; "Lexicographers drudge all day long"
Synonym(s): labor, labour, toil, fag, travail, drudge, dig, moil
27. grind - verb
· dance by rotating the pelvis in an erotically suggestive way, often while in contact with one's partner such that the dancers' legs are interlaced
Hypernym(s): dance, trip_the_light_fantastic, trip_the_light_fantastic_toe
28. grind - verb
· reduce to small pieces or particles by pounding or abrading; "grind the spices in a mortar"; "mash the garlic"
Synonym(s): mash, crunch, bray, comminute
Hypernym(s): break_up, fragment, fragmentize, fragmentise
29. grind - verb
· created by grinding; "grind designs into the glass bowl"
30. grind - verb
· shape or form by grinding; "grind lenses for glasses and cameras"
Hypernym(s): shape, form, work, mold, mould, forge
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text:
Bryan Adams' Hit-Heavy Fox Show
By Jeremy Essig
Lightning Bolt's Sharp New Sound
By Jason Robinson
Fleetwood Mac Back with Classic Lineup
By Hans Morgenstern
Here's Who's Making STL Noisy This Spring
By Joseph Hess
Beatles Sister Louise Harrison Departs the Midwest
By Peter Gilstrap
By Julia Burch
Working Class Dogs to Honor Rick Springfield
By Jeremy Essig
Torche Gets Back Into Its Heavy Groove With Restarter
By Nathan Smith
Bob McMahon: Do you often get recognized, like, "Hey, it's that guy from the Urge"?
Steve Ewing: Yeah, totally. Especially down by Procter & Gamble, I'd say probably most of my customers know who I am. It helps with the business. We sell CDs out there, so it works out great.
Steve's Hometown Hot Dogs & Sausages' website is located at www.facebook.com/pages /Saint-Louis-MO/Steves-Hometown-Hot-Dogs-Sausages/148488365186199
Good 4 U's website can be found at: http://stlouis.missouri.org/citygov/health/good4you
Do you do anything else with your music to promote this business? Like at the end of the show do you say, "Come down and buy a hot dog from me!"
I'll tell you what, that's one of the reasons why I really wanted to do Taste of St. Louis this year, to really present it on a larger scale, like, "Hey, not only am I doing music, you guys know that, but I also have another business." And it worked out great. I was able to promote the business by doing a big event like that. In the future, I will be doing more events, more bigger events and working on possibly running the business at some regular installations, places like Home Depot, things like that. So we'll have multiple satellites, we'll have multiple food carts going at one time.
Have you ever considered writing a jingle for your cart?
[Laughs] You know, when we get into television advertising, I would imagine I'll have to. Without a doubt. The cool thing about St. Louis is there's so many great ways to market at the street level. The community is kind of small in a sense, and I've been a public figure in the community for so many years. So I don't have to go crazy with television advertising. I can really do a lot of word of mouth and things like that. For food, for what I'm doing it works out great that way. I get a lot of repeat customers.
One thing I should ask, because you sell hot dogs: Aren't you — or weren't you at one point — a vegetarian?
I still am, and we do veggie items. We have a vegetarian meatball sandwich, and we also have veggie burgers.
So you don't have any moral qualms with selling something you personally wouldn't eat?
No, I don't have any problems with that at all. That's not the reason I'm a vegetarian. I love meat, I just chose not to eat it because it got hard for me on the road, touring and stuff, and it was kind of easier for me to discipline myself that way and keep myself healthier while I was on tour. And I just kind of kept going with the lifestyle. But occasionally I'll still eat a few things here and there. I'm not a strict vegetarian.
— Bob McMahon
Calvin Cox: Before the show aired, you'd actually been advocating for healthy eating for years, right?
Murphy Lee: Definitely. I've been a vegetarian for twelve years now and a vegan for three.
What made you decide to change your lifestyle in that way?
It basically came from a lot of reading. Certain music led me to certain books, and the books led me to eating right, which is the key to a good life. If you don't put good gas in the tank, that thing's gonna putt-putt!
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The winner of Montana state beauty pageant, who has been diagnosed with autism, has applied to take part in Miss America contest.
According to the DisabilityScoop website the national beauty queen wannabe 18 year old Alexis Wineman, was diagnosed with Pervasive Development Disorder and borderline Aspergers Syndrome at the age of 11.
After Alexis won the Montana Beauty contest in 2012, she thought she could use the publicity to raise awareness of the disorder.
In a video aired on KRTV.com Wineman says "most people do not understand what autism is."
"One in 88 people is having some form of autism; this understanding is becoming more and more necessary."
Speaking last year to DisabilityScoop Wineman shared her experience of living with autism recalling that she always was the 'oddball out' and struggled hard to socialize and make friends in her teens.
"Socializing with my classmates, even when I wanted to, was awkward to say the least. I wouldn't get their jokes half the time. I took everything literally," she said.
Years on, socializing is still a challenge however she has learnt to deal with her problems as well as with the reaction she faces on a daily basis.
"'It's amazing how people don't accept other people just because they're different,' she said. 'Being different is not something to look down on, but to be embraced. People need to understand," she says.
The next Miss America pageant will be held in Las Vegas, Nevada on the January 12, 2013 weekend. If Wineman wins, she'll become the first national beauty queen with such a condition.


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Bioshock: Infinite is the eagerly awaited third title in the extremely popular Bioshock series from Irrational Games. This first-person shooter rockets you into Columbia, an immense city in the sky, where you will control Booker DeWitt in his quest to search for a woman named Elizabeth. Players will be treated to a wide variety of environments and styles of combat as seen in the trailer below:
Pretty epic, IMHO. And even though
we probably don't really need another reason to feel all the exciteness for the
release of Bioshock: Infinite, Irrational games have released a 7-second
teaser that shows gamers why this title is so widely anticipated.
Obviously it
doesn't show much, but the footage is pretty freaking cool and there are
explosions everywhere. Take a sneak peek at the horrifying war that has torn
the city of Columbia apart:
Stephanie's Twitter | MWeb Gamezone
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June 1, 2008
25 years ago: 1983
Rebuffed by a federal judge's ruling last week prohibiting enforcement of its new anti-nudity law, the City Council yesterday displayed its frustration as several members promised an appeal of another ordinance. Meanwhile, Mayor Dick Hackett, who brought the current ordinance to the legislative body about three months ago, said he had recommended it only because state prosecutors thought it would help in policing topless nightclubs. "It appears at this time the attorneys are going to have to go back to the drawing board," Hackett said. "What we do in the future, it's going to have to be done in a manner that when we do lay something on the books, it will stick."
50 years ago: 1958
For the 46th consecutive time since 1912, Memphis State University yesterday draped itself in somber black to pass a solemn blessing on its students. When their names were intoned, 341 seniors and graduates filed across the field house stage with suppressed elation to receive their diplomas. Despite the parchment pronouncement of learning, they carried with them a reminder by the state's highest education officer that they have yet to receive the test of education. "While today you are receiving the honor of having a degree conferred upon you by this great university ... you are not an educated man or an educated woman" said Dr. Quill E. Cope, education commissioner. "The true test of education...is whether or not you keep an open mind."
75 years ago: 1933
Robert R. Ferrell, Thomas A. Robinson, Harry B. Mayer, William C. Dirmeyer, Carl M. Renkert and Edward V. Sheely have been voted life members of the Memphis Drug Club for their years of service to the retail drug trade in Tennessee.
100 years ago: 1908
Attorney J.E. Jordan of Raleigh is preparing to go before the County Court to demand that a free ferry be operated across the Wolf River at Raleigh. The bridge over the Wolf there is being repaired and Court Chairman Kimbrough said that it should be ready for use within a month but Mr. Jordan has been informed that the work on the bridge will not be completed before fall.
125 years ago: 1883
A new bridge over the bayou on St. Paul, near Lauderdale, is almost complete. Lumber for the structure is being hauled over the bayou on Third. The bridge will be one of the most substantial and most ornamental in the city and will cost about $1,600.
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The present invention utilizes a cross-prediction scheme to predict values of discrete and continuous time observation data, wherein conditional variance of each continuous time tube variable is fixed to a small positive value. By allowing cross-predictions in an ARMA based model, values of continuous and discrete observations in a time series are accurately predicted. The present invention accomplishes this by extending an ARMA model such that a first time series "tube" is utilized to facilitate or "cross-predict" values in a second time series tube to form an "ARMAxp" model. In general, in the ARMAxp model, the distribution of each continuous variable is a decision graph having splits only on discrete variables and having linear regressions with continuous regressors at all leaves, and the distribution of each discrete variable is a decision graph having splits only on discrete variables and having additional distributions at all leaves.
1. A system that facilitates predicting values of time observation data in a time series, comprising:
at least one processor;
a memory communicatively coupled to the processor, the memory having stored therein processor-executable instructions configured to implement the time series prediction system including:
a component that receives a subset of time observation data that includes observations of at least one entity, the time observation data comprising at least one selected from the group consisting of discrete time observation data and continuous time observation data; and
an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model that predicts values of the time observation data, the ARMAxp model includes at least one variable that corresponds to the observations associated with the at least one entity and conditional variance of each continuous time tube variable is fixed to a small positive value.
2. The system of
3. The system of
4. The system of
5. The system of
6. The system of
7. The system of
8. The system of
9. The system of
10. The system of
11. The system of
12. A computer readable medium having stored thereon computer executable components of the system of
13. A device employing the system of
14. A method of predicting values of time observation data in a time series, comprising:
employing a processor executing processor-executable instructions stored on a processor-readable memory to implement one or more acts including:
providing a subset of time observation data that includes observations of at least one entity, the time observation data comprising at least one selected from the group consisting of discrete time observation data and continuous time observation data; and
predicting values of the time observation data utilizing an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model, the ARMAxp model includes at least one variable that corresponds to the observations associated with at least one entity; and conditional variance of each continuous variable is fixed to a small positive value.
15. The method of
16. The method of
employing exact directed acyclic graph (DAG) model inference to predict future observations of the at least one entity.
17. The method of
learning parameterization of a structure of the ARMAxp model based on an expectation maximization (EM) algorithm.
18. The method of
searching for an appropriate model structure utilizing a search component.
19. The method of
improving a model score via the search component.
20. The method of
utilizing Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) for the model score.
21. The method of
22. The method of
23. The method of
24. A device employing the method of
25. A computer readable medium having stored thereon computer executable instructions for performing the method of
26. A system for predicting values of time observation data in a time series, comprising:
means for executing computer-executable instructions stored on a computer-readable storage medium, the computer-executable instructions include:
means for predicting values of time observation data that includes observations of at least one entity utilizing an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model that includes at least one variable that corresponds to the observations associated with the at least one entity; and conditional variance of each continuous time tube variable is fixed to a small positive value.
27. The system of
28. The system of
means for searching and scoring a model structure.
29. The system of
30. The system of
This application is related to U.S. patent application Ser. No. 10/102,116, which was filed by Meek, et al on Mar. 19, 2002, entitled BAYESIAN APPROACH FOR LEARNING REGRESSION DECISION GRAPH MODELS AND REGRESSION MODELS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS and is herein incorporated by reference (hereinafter known as "Meek, et al.").
The present invention relates generally to data analysis, and more particularly to systems and methods for providing a new time series model probabilistic ARMA utilizing cross-predictions.
The use of data analysis tools has increased dramatically as society has become more dependent on digital information storage. In e-commerce and other Internet and non-Internet applications, databases are generated and maintained that have astronomically large amounts of information. Such information is typically analyzed, or "mined," to learn additional information regarding customers, users, products, etc. This information allows businesses and other users to better implement their products and/or ideas.
Data mining is typically the extraction of information from data to gain a new, insightful perspective. Data mining can employ machine learning, statistical and/or visualization techniques to discover and present knowledge in a form that is easily comprehensible to humans. Generally speaking, humans recognize or translate graphical items more easily than textual ones. Thus, larger amounts of information can be relayed utilizing this means than by other methods. As such, graphical statistical models have proven invaluable in data mining.
A Bayesian network is one type of a graphical statistical model that encodes probabilistic relationships among variables of interest. Over the last decade, the Bayesian network has become a popular representation for encoding uncertain expert knowledge in expert systems. When used in conjunction with statistical techniques, the graphical model has several advantages for data analysis. Because the model encodes dependencies among all variables, it readily handles situations where some data entries are missing. A graphical model, such as a Bayesian network, can be used to learn causal relationships, and hence can be used to gain understanding about a problem domain and to predict the consequences of intervention. Because the model has both a causal and probabilistic semantics, it is an ideal representation for combining prior knowledge (which often comes in causal form) and data. Additionally, Bayesian statistical methods in conjunction with Bayesian networks offer an efficient and principled approach for avoiding the over fitting of data.
Bayesian network statistical model variations include decision trees and decision graphs. A decision tree data structure corresponds generally to an acyclic, undirected graph where nodes are connected to other respective nodes via a single path. The graph is acyclic in that there is no path that both emanates from a vertex and returns to the same vertex, where each edge in the path is traversed only once. A probabilistic decision tree is a decision tree that is used to represent a conditional probability distribution for a target variable given some set of predictor variables. As compared to a table, which is another way to represent a conditional probability distribution when all variables are discrete, a tree is generally a more efficient way of storing probabilities because of its ability to represent equality constraints within a conditional probability distribution.
A decision graph is a further generalization of a decision tree. Similar to a decision tree, a decision graph can represent equality constraints in a conditional probability distribution. In contrast to a decision tree, however, non-root nodes in a decision graph can have more than one parent. This characteristic enables a richer set of relationships to be represented by a decision graph than by a decision tree. For example, relationships between a non-root node and multiple parent nodes can be represented in a decision graph by corresponding edges interconnecting the non-root node with its parent nodes.
Graphical models facilitate probability theory through the utilization of graph theory. This allows for a method of dealing with uncertainty while reducing complexity. The modularity of a graphical model permits representation of complex systems by utilizing less complex elements. The connections and relationships of individual elements are identified by the probability theory, while the elements themselves are constructed by the graph theory. Utilizing graphics also provides a much more intuitive human interface to difficult problems.
Nodes of a probabilistic graphical model represent random variables. Their connectivity can indicate associative qualities such as dependence and independence and the like. If no connectivity (i.e., "arcs") is present, this represents conditional independence assumptions, providing a representation of joint probability distributions. Graphical models can be "directed" or "undirected" depending on how they are constructed. Undirected graphical models have a more simplistic definition of independence, while directed graphical models are more complex by nature. Bayesian or "Belief" networks (BN) are included in the directed category and are utilized extensively in statistics and artificial intelligence to show causality between elements or "nodes." They are also highly beneficial in supplying "inferences." That is, they are able to infer information based on a posterior probability (i.e., "likelihood") utilizing Bayes' rule. Thus, for a given outcome, its cause can be probabilistically deduced utilizing a directed graphical model.
A directed acyclic graph (DAG) such as a Bayesian network can also be applied to provide predictions relating to a time series. One such technique is to utilize an autoregressive (AR) method combined with a moving average (MA) method. This is known as "ARMA" or autoregressive, moving average. These types of models are models of persistence in a time series. By understanding the persistence of a time series, predictions can be made regarding future values of that time series. This proves invaluable in economics, business, and industrial arenas. Predicting behavior allows one to adjust parameters if the desired outcome is not the predicted outcome. Thus, for example, a company can predict its stock value based on current financial states and determine if they need to improve on cash reserves, sales, and/or capital investments in order to achieve a desired stock price. This also permits a study of the "influence" of various parameters on future values.
The following presents a simplified summary of the invention in order to provide a basic understanding of some aspects of the invention. This summary is not an extensive overview of the invention. It is not intended to identify key/critical elements of the invention nor to delineate the scope of the invention. Its sole purpose is to present some concepts of the invention in a simplified form as a prelude to the more detailed description that is presented later.
The present invention relates generally to data analysis, and more particularly to systems and methods for providing a new time series model probabilistic ARMA utilizing cross-predictions, called "ARMAxp".
In ARMAxp models, ARMA models are leveraged via a cross-prediction scheme where predictions for a primary time series "tube" are obtained not only from observations in the past, but also from observations on secondary, cross-predicting time tubes. ARMA models are further leveraged by allowing discrete as well as continuous observed values for primary and secondary time tubes, and by utilizing a distribution with a small variance rather than a deterministic linear relation for describing the relationship between a variable in a primary time tube and (regressor) variables used to predict this variable. In general, in the ARMAxp model, the distribution of each continuous variable is a decision graph having splits only on discrete variables and having linear regressions with continuous regressors at all leaves, and the distribution of each discrete variable is a decision graph having splits only on discrete variables and having additional distributions at all leaves. An expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is utilized to derive maximum a posterior (MAP) or maximum likelihood (ML) estimates to approximate parameters of an ARMAxp model given data. An asymptotic approximation to the marginal likelihood of a model structure is then utilized to select the structure of an ARMAxp model. A directed acyclic graph (DAG) model inference algorithm is utilized to predict future observations given the ARMAxp model and its parameters. Thus, values of continuous and discrete observations in a time series are accurately predicted utilizing an extension of a familiar data analysis model, providing an easy to learn and accurate prediction model.
To the accomplishment of the foregoing and related ends, certain illustrative aspects of the invention are described herein in connection with the following description and the annexed drawings. These aspects are indicative, however, of but a few of the various ways in which the principles of the invention may be employed and the present invention is intended to include all such aspects and their equivalents. Other advantages and novel features of the invention may become apparent from the following detailed description of the invention when considered in conjunction with the drawings.
The present invention is now described with reference to the drawings, wherein like reference numerals are used to refer to like elements throughout. In the following description, for purposes of explanation, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. It may be evident, however, that the present invention may be practiced without these specific details. In other instances, well-known structures and devices are shown in block diagram form in order to facilitate describing the present invention.
As used in this application, the term "component" is intended to refer to a computer-related entity, either hardware, a combination of hardware and software, software, or software in execution. For example, a component may be, but is not limited to being, a process running on a processor, a processor, an object, an executable, a thread of execution, a program, and/or a computer. By way of illustration, both an application running on a server and the server can be a computer component. One or more components may reside within a process and/or thread of execution and a component may be localized on one computer and/or distributed between two or more computers. A "thread" is the entity within a process that the operating system kernel schedules for execution. As is well known in the art, each thread has an associated "context" which is the volatile data associated with the execution of the thread. A thread's context includes the contents of system registers and the virtual address belonging to the thread's process. Thus, the actual data comprising a thread's context varies as it executes.
The present invention is a system and method for discrete/finite and continuous time-series prediction. It incorporates a method for learning auto-regressive models for discrete time series as disclosed in the related application, Meek, et al. and extends the well-known ARMA (auto-regressive, moving average) method for time series. The present invention allows for accurate prediction of values of continuous and possibly discrete/finite observations in a time series. For example, the present invention can allow a merchant to predict today's sales of umbrellas given past sales of umbrellas, past sales of rain hats, and today's weather. The present invention also provides a model that has some degree of familiarity in data analysis circles. This permits a faster learning curve for implementing the present invention. A special case of the present invention is an ARMA-like model.
Turning to
Moving on to
Referring to
The systems 100-400 of the present invention typically employ distributions for each continuous variable as a decision graph 500 having splits only on discrete variables 502-506 and having linear regressions with continuous regressors at all leaves 508-512 as shown in
For illustrative purposes, a class of ARMA(p,q) models (where "p" and "q" represent the order or length of the AR and MA, respectively) is provided, any member of which can be described by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model (a.k.a., Bayesian network). For example, consider a set of observations d=(y1, . . . , yn), where yt is the observation of entity y at time t. The ARMA(2,2) model for this time series is described in part by a DAG model 700 illustrated in
In general, a DAG model for an ARMA(p,q) model is one where a previous "p" Y's point to a given Y and a current H and previous "q" H's point to a given Y. Again each H has the same unknown mean and variance; and each Y (except for early times) is the same deterministic, linear function of its parents where the coefficients are unknown. The parameters of a model (unknown quantities) are estimated from data by a procedure described in Ansley, C. F. (1979); An Algorithm for the Exact Likelihood of a Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average Process; Biometrik 66, 59-65. Ansley also illustrates how to do prediction—that is, given a model and its parameters, predict the mean and variance of y's not yet observed.
The present invention's class of models, dubbed "ARMAxp" class of models, includes the following generalizations of an ARMA class: (1) multiple observations per time slice; (2) some observations can be discrete/finite; and (3) the relationship between a variable and its parents is non-deterministic. For example, consider a set of continuous observations y=((y11,y21), (y12,y22), . . . , (y1n,y2n)) where yij denotes the observation of the entity yi at time j. The set of observations yi*=(yi1,yi2, . . . yin) is sometimes referred to as a "time tube" for entity yi. Likewise, the set observations across time tubes for a fixed time t, that is y*t=(y1t,y2t, . . . ymt), is sometimes referred to as a "time slice".
One ARMAxp model of the present invention that can be used to predict a two-tube series is illustrated by a DAG model 800 shown in
As another example, consider observations y=((y11,y21), (y12,y22), . . . , (y1n,y2n)), where each y2t is discrete, having a finite number of states. In this case, an example ARMAxp model corresponds to
In general, the present invention can have multiple time tubes of continuous observations and multiple time tubes of discrete/finite observations. Here, discrete variables depend only on other discrete variables. The local distributions for the discrete variables are decision graphs with multinomial distributions at the leaves, and the local distributions for the continuous variables are decision graphs—containing splits on only discrete variables—with linear regressions on the continuous parents at the leaves. With the exception of the early-time boundary, local distributions corresponding to a given time tube have the same parameters at each time slice. Finally, arcs in the model can not form directed cycles.
The local distributions for early time slices are modified versions of those for a regular slice. In particular, for each continuous Yij that cannot have the same dependencies as a regular slice, linear coefficients from Yij's continuous parents to Yij are set to zero as illustrated in
To estimate the parameters of an ARMAxp model given data, the present invention uses an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to derive either a maximum a posterior (MAP) or maximum likelihood (ML) estimates. The application of EM to the present invention's model is straightforward to one skilled in the art. The E step (expectation step) of the algorithm is accomplished with an exact DAG model inference algorithm. Speedups to exact inference for the ARMAxp models are described infra. It should be noted that because the present invention is using an EM algorithm to estimate parameters, not all Yijs in the training data need be observed.
ARMAxp models as described are not identifiable. That is, an infinite number of parameter sets give rise to the same predictions. To make the models identifiable, the present invention sets the conditional variance of each continuous Yij to be a small constant: ε. Model predictions are fairly insensitive to ε when ε is small. It is recommended that a value of approximately 0.01 be utilized for the constant. It should also be noted that if a function relating each continuous Yij to its parents is deterministic (as it is in ARMA), then the EM algorithm could not be used to estimate the parameters of the model from data. However, the present invention does not possess that limitation as found in ARMA.
To choose a structure of an ARMAxp model ("p", "q", and cross-predict arcs ("c")), the present invention typically utilizes a Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) score—an asymptotic (heuristic) approximation to the marginal likelihood of the model structure. This score and its use are well known to those practiced in the art and is described in Schwarz, G. (1978); Estimating the Dimension of a Model; Annals of Statistics, 6:461-464.
In one instance of the present invention, a structural search for a time series with cross-predictors is performed as follows. First, a ranked list of MaxCross cross-predictors expected to have the most influence on the time series is created. The ranking can be in accordance with scores for independence tests between an observed variable for a time series, Y, and each considered cross-predictor. Independence test scores can be based on BIC scores, but other scores are possible. Independence test scoring is well known to those skilled in the art. A first model structure is then constructed according to an initial specification of "p", "q" and "c", where "p" and "q" have the same semantic as described supra, and "c" is a number of cross-predictors and cross-predictors are selected according to the ranked order. Parameters "p", "q", and "c" are given an initial value smaller than expected for a final model (e.g., a value of zero). A parameterization for this model structure is obtained by the EM algorithm and then the model is scored (e.g., by BIC score).
After the above initialization, the structural search contains a global model search with a local model search nested inside. The local model search selects a best model with a fixed number of auto-regressors, "p" (and varying "q" and "c") and a global model search selects a best model between the selected best local models with different "p's" by adding one to a value of "p" each time a global model score (e.g., BIC score) increases over a previous best global model score and stops when that is not the case.
The local model search scores a current model and then first tries to add moving average (MA) parameters to the model by iteratively adding one to a value of "q", until the score does not increase or until "p"="q". The moving average parameter search is always followed by an update of cross-predictors. Cross-predictors are updated by first trying to iteratively delete as many a possible (in ranking order) by decreasing a value of "c" by one until the score does not increase over the score for the previous best local model. If it was not possible to delete any cross-predictors, then cross-predictors are iteratively added (in ranking order) by increasing the value of "c" by one until the score does not increase over the score for previous best local model or until "c"=MaxCross.
During the local model search, each time a model structure is changed ("p", "q", or "c"), the parameterization for the current model is updated by running EM and then this model is scored (e.g., by BIC score). When the current model does not improve the score, the previous best local model is restored. The final model now constitutes the best local model for current "q".
To predict future observations given an ARMAxp model and its parameters, the present invention uses an exact DAG-model inference algorithm. In order to speedup the process, the following can be employed in one instance of the present invention. Instead of running inference from t=0 until the time for which prediction is done, a runtime speedup can be obtained by storing conditional distributions given current evidence for all (non-future) variables affecting variables in a part of a model which describes the future that the present invention is predicting. Those skilled in the art will realize that these conditional distributions represent the effect of all evidence up until the start of prediction and inference can be started at this point instead of at time t=0.
It should be noted that use of DAG model inference makes it possible to predict future values even when portions of the time series are unobserved. Additionally, it should be noted that, if all observations correspond to discrete/finite values, the present invention's algorithm degenerates to the one described in Meek, et al.
In view of the exemplary systems shown and described above, methodologies that may be implemented in accordance with the present invention will be better appreciated with reference to the flow charts of
The invention may be described in the general context of computer-executable instructions, such as program modules, executed by one or more components. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, objects, data structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. Typically the functionality of the program modules may be combined or distributed as desired in various embodiments.
As mentioned supra, a search function can be employed to facilitate finding an optimum ARMAxp model. Turning to
Turning to
Moving on to
If, however, no cross-predictor has been deleted 1150, a determination is then made as to whether "c" is less than maxcross 1164. If no, the method 1100 continues with determining if ScoreLocalBest is greater than ScoreGlobalBest 1152 described supra. If, however, "c" is less than maxcross 1164, it is incremented by a value of one 1166. The current model is then updated by employing the EM algorithm 1168. The current model is then scored and ScoreCurrent is set equal to its score 1170. A determination is then made as to whether ScoreCurrent is greater than ScoreLocalBest 1172. If yes, ScoreLocalBest is set equal to ScoreCurrent 1176. The method 1100 then cycles back to determining whether "c" is less than maxcross 1164, described supra. If, however, ScoreCurrent is not greater than ScoreLocalBest 1172, the previous model and ScoreLocalBest are restored 1174. The method 1100 then continues with determining if ScoreLocalBest is greater than ScoreGlobalBest 1152 described supra.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the search algorithm described supra is not the only method that can be employed by the present invention. Any method that can be utilized to obtain an optimum configuration is within the scope of the present invention.
In order to provide additional context for implementing various aspects of the present invention,
As used in this application, the term "component" is intended to refer to a computer-related entity, either hardware, a combination of hardware and software, software, or software in execution. For example, a component may be, but is not limited to, a process running on a processor, a processor, an object, an executable, a thread of execution, a program, and a computer. By way of illustration, an application running on a server and/or the server can be a component. In addition, a component may include one or more subcomponents.
With reference to
The system bus 1408 may be any of several types of bus structure including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, and a local bus using any of a variety of conventional bus architectures such as PCI, VESA, Microchannel, ISA, and EISA, to name a few. The system memory 1406 includes read only memory (ROM) 1410 and random access memory (RAM) 1412. A basic input/output system (BIOS) 1414, containing the basic routines that help to transfer information between elements within the computer 1402, such as during start-up, is stored in ROM 1410.
The computer 1402 also may include, for example, a hard disk drive 1416, a magnetic disk drive 1418, e.g., to read from or write to a removable disk 1420, and an optical disk drive 1422, e.g., for reading from or writing to a CD-ROM disk 1424 or other optical media. The hard disk drive 1416, magnetic disk drive 1418, and optical disk drive 1422 are connected to the system bus 1408 by a hard disk drive interface 1426, a magnetic disk drive interface 1428, and an optical drive interface 1430, respectively. The drives 1416-1422 and their associated computer-readable media provide nonvolatile storage of data, data structures, computer-executable instructions, etc. for the computer 1402. Although the description of computer-readable media above refers to a hard disk, a removable magnetic disk and a CD, it should be appreciated by those skilled in the art that other types of media which are readable by a computer, such as magnetic cassettes, flash memory cards, digital video disks, Bernoulli cartridges, and the like, can also be used in the exemplary operating environment 1400, and further that any such media may contain computer-executable instructions for performing the methods of the present invention.
A number of program modules may be stored in the drives 1416-1422 and RAM 1412, including an operating system 1432, one or more application programs 1434, other program modules 1436, and program data 1438. The operating system 1432 may be any suitable operating system or combination of operating systems. By way of example, the application programs 1434 can include a time series data prediction component that employs, for example, an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model to predict values of discrete and continuous time observation data in accordance with an aspect of the present invention.
A user can enter commands and information into the computer 1402 through one or more user input devices, such as a keyboard 1440 and a pointing device (e.g., a mouse 1442). Other input devices (not shown) may include a microphone, a joystick, a game pad, a satellite dish, wireless remote, a scanner, or the like. These and other input devices are often connected to the processing unit 1404 through a serial port interface 1444 that is coupled to the system bus 1408, but may be connected by other interfaces, such as a parallel port, a game port or a universal serial bus (USB). A monitor 1446 or other type of display device is also connected to the system bus 1408 via an interface, such as a video adapter 1448. In addition to the monitor 1446, the computer 1402 may include other peripheral output devices (not shown), such as speakers, printers, etc.
It is to be appreciated that the computer 1402 can operate in a networked environment using logical connections to one or more remote computers 1460. The remote computer 1460 may be a workstation, a server computer, a router, a peer device or other common network node, and typically includes many or all of the elements described relative to the computer 1402, although, for purposes of brevity, only a memory storage device 1462 is illustrated in
When used in a LAN networking environment, for example, the computer 1402 is connected to the local network 1464 through a network interface or adapter 1468. When used in a WAN networking environment, the computer 1402 typically includes a modem (e.g., telephone, DSL, cable, etc.) 1470, or is connected to a communications server on the LAN, or has other means for establishing communications over the WAN 1466, such as the Internet. The modem 1470, which can be internal or external relative to the computer 1402, is connected to the system bus 1408 via the serial port interface 1444. In a networked environment, program modules (including application programs 1434) and/or program data 1438 can be stored in the remote memory storage device 1462. It will be appreciated that the network connections shown are exemplary and other means (e.g., wired or wireless) of establishing a communications link between the computers 1402 and 1460 can be used when carrying out an aspect of the present invention.
In accordance with the practices of persons skilled in the art of computer programming, the present invention has been described with reference to acts and symbolic representations of operations that are performed by a computer, such as the computer 1402 or remote computer 1460, unless otherwise indicated. Such acts and operations are sometimes referred to as being computer-executed. It will be appreciated that the acts and symbolically represented operations include the manipulation by the processing unit 1404 of electrical signals representing data bits which causes a resulting transformation or reduction of the electrical signal representation, and the maintenance of data bits at memory locations in the memory system (including the system memory 1406, hard drive 1416, floppy disks 1420, CD-ROM 1424, and remote memory 1462) to thereby reconfigure or otherwise alter the computer system's operation, as well as other processing of signals. The memory locations where such data bits are maintained are physical locations that have particular electrical, magnetic, or optical properties corresponding to the data bits.
In one instance of the present invention, a data packet is transmitted between two or more computer components that facilitates predicting values of discrete and/or continuous time observation data in a time series, the data packet comprised of, at least in part, time observation prediction data based, at least in part, on an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model, wherein conditional variance of each continuous variable is fixed to a small positive value.
In another instance of the present invention, a computer readable medium storing computer executable components of a system that facilitates predicting values of time observation data in a time series is comprised of an autoregressive, moving average cross-predictions (ARMAxp) model that predicts values of the discrete and/or continuous time observation data, wherein conditional variance of each continuous variable is fixed to a small positive value.
It is to be appreciated that the systems and/or methods of the present invention can be utilized in a data prediction scheme for facilitating computer components and non-computer related components alike. Further, those skilled in the art will recognize that the systems and/or methods of the present invention can be employed in a vast array of electronic related technologies, including, but not limited to, computers, servers and/or handheld electronic devices and the like.
What has been described above includes examples of the present invention. It is, of course, not possible to describe every conceivable combination of components or methodologies for purposes of describing the present invention, but one of ordinary skill in the art may recognize that many further combinations and permutations of the present invention are possible. Accordingly, the present invention is intended to embrace all such alterations, modifications and variations that fall within the spirit and scope of the appended claims. Furthermore, to the extent that the term "includes" is used in either the detailed description or the claims, such term is intended to be inclusive in a manner similar to the term "comprising" as "comprising" is interpreted when employed as a transitional word in a claim.
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DNP3 Secure Authentication - What's all the buzz about?
By: SGN Staff
Quick Take: We recently told you bad news about a SCADA vulnerability. Now here's some good news about progress that applies to SCADA and other areas as well. - By Jesse Berst
By Brian Smith
If you are like me and many of the folks in this industry, you might consider DNP3 an old friend. It is well understood within the utility industry and has become a predominant solution for SCADA applications in North America. So when the subject of DNP3 Secure Authentication comes up in discussions, it's easy to get excited.
Why the enthusiasm? What makes DNP3 Secure Authentication different than other security solutions which have been proposed and deployed throughout the electric utility industry over the past few years? The simple answer is that it's an application layer solution but the real answer is in how that translates to value for the end users.
To start with, it is important to understand that almost all SCADA applications up until now rely completely on the network infrastructure for protection, meaning that any valid (correctly formatted) protocol message received by a device is trusted by default. Trusted in terms that it came from the anticipated source and the data wasn't altered in transit. While DNP3 does have mechanisms such as, source and destination addresses and sequence numbers, these aren't security mechanisms and can be easily circumvented with the skill sets of today's potential adversaries.
While this might not have been a major concern with traditional serial based deployments, it's becoming a major concern as these applications are being migrated to modern IP based communication networks due to their potential increased exposure to unauthorized access. DNP3 Secure Authentication now provides the additional layer of security needed by utilities to address this challenge by providing a mechanism to validate that the message came from the authorized sender and has not been altered in transit as it moves across the utility's communications network.


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UK court confirms taxpayers on the hook for BT pensions
BT has fought off a legal challenge from the UK government over its giant pensions bill – confirming that taxpayers could be on the hook for billions of pounds in the event the telecoms giant ever goes bust.
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As for diminishing returns, are you telling me less than 1 extra strikeout a game causes over half a run less a game? Runs are dramatically down over just the last few years while the approach we are talking about is something over 2 decades in the process. It's a huge reach to think there is some sort of cliff at 7 strikeouts a game.
The simple reasoning is staring everyone in the face. Slugging percentage and batting average are down. Now, if you think the current approach to hitting has effect on slugging and BA, then that makes no sense since slugging is still higher than the 80's and BA is very similar. There simply is no correlation how hard you want to try. Everyone knows the reason for the reduction in runs, and it seems like there is an endless number of people trying to make a name for themselves by trying to point out something less obvious. Occam's razor.
Let's face it. We all know what happened in the 90's and 2000's. Numbers are simply returning to the levels we saw in the 1980's. If numbers were at historical lows I would tend to agree, but they are not. They have just returned to the norm.


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Experience is the father of wisdom and memory the mother.
I am 26 something years old male inhabitant of this little blue planet called Earth. Next to my daily job I enjoy reading, occasionally watching anime and playing a game or two, whenever life allows me to. My most cherished writers are H.P. Lovecraft and Andrzej Sapkowski. I'm a also a member of the Glorius PC Gaming Master Race.
My taste in anime is very diverse. Being a jack-of-all-anime-tastes means that I do no necceserily like, say, anime #1 while I may be completely in love with anime #2 of the same genre. That said, I do enjoy to watch plotty series and love to analyze and speculate about the story, settings and character development.
I grade my anime using this site's five star system, because it is that convenient. If you multiply it by two, ten, twenty or seventeen million you get pretty much same score you would have if you graded it on scale of ten, one hundred... etc. The final score is calculated using the following criteria:
Narrative: 3 points, subdivided into:
Story: 1,5 point
I favor when the story knows what direction it is going, can conclude itself properly and leave me satisfied. If it ends abrupt, rushed or make me scratch my head without any hint of explanation (be it visual, metaphorical or something else) to why and how it did, well, then it clearly didn't do that great of a job. Plots that encourage me using my head, even remotely, will always receive more praise over the ones that do not. I consider the genre the anime belongs to when judging the narrative. Codemy series for example, generarly have less complex scenarios and are meant to entertain. Well-written stories with some minor flaws (that are overshadowed by the overall narrative,) are awarded 1,5 shiny point of awesomeness.
Characters: 1,5 point
Can't have a story without a cast to tell it, can we? I judge the characters based on their motivations, growth and emotional appeal. If a person is made a vile douche set to eradicate all of mankind, then you best explain/show me how and/or why he decided to embrace that path. Being evil for sake of being evil is a cheap trick I see as lazy writing and should be punished accordingly. I loathe characters that make dumb noble sacrifices because they're often handled poorly in most anime. Well crafted villains and anti-heroes will often receive some bonus points from me, because I like that archetype very much. Overall, if the character roster consists of likable, fleshed out individuals with a few obnoxious ones (depending on how big the anime's cast is), I will mostly let that fault slide, unless they are being very grating or highly insulting.
Visuals: 1 point
Compared to storytelling I'm pretty lax in judging an anime's visuals and have no high standards to animation, color palettes or character design. Thus the lowest grade I can give to any anime is a 0.5 because making it did require some effort, even if it had zero plot and no other redeeming qualities to it. I do like when the graphics look pleasing to the eye but will not flunk a show due to its 'poor' presentation. The majority of my watches are awarded with the maximum score.
Personal appeal: 1 point
Not an easy category to describe... Put it simply, this fluctuant score is based solely on how much an anime entertained me. Hitting the right notes to hype the viewer up, make them laugh, cry or think is not an easy feat to accomplish. The final score depends on variables such as choice of opening/closing themes, cast of voice actors, filler episode ratio, etc. The appeal an anime makes, is the penultimate factor that separates the (nearly) flawless (5.0), superb (4.5) and excellent (4.0) shows. In rare occasions it elevates a series that shouldn't have that high a score to my 'guilty pleasure' category (e.g. H.O.T.D. and Murder Princess).
Drop a reply, anime recommendations or a piece of your mind below, if you feel like doing so. I am always up for a discussion (or silly random banter, your choice) about pretty much anything, so for those interested I can be found on Steam by the name of Guardspec.
I thank you for your time, dear visitor.
5,282 total episodes
Very good point you make, but from a fan's point of view, it takes a lot of tolerance and understanding to accept the business side of the decision...something i certainly didnt have the 3 odd years ago when i wrote the review haha :P
true the good thing about it and pokemon as a whole, is being more accesible to new and younger audiences not getting lost in the mountainload of episodes, but just the fact they completly started over, AND completley changed the animation style....just wasn't for me :P
Yo, thanks for the message on my Danganronpa review and for reading my bigass profile as well!
Harem isn't a bad idea, I agree withya, but once a wise man told me that, getting more waifus will destroy your laifu, so I keep myself on the limit here, although it's damn hard to...
Kinda odd, but almost exactly a year ago, you commented on my profile how our top anime overlapped. I use MAL now, so I haven't really checked this account in a while. Sorry about the super late reply!
Thanks for the birthday wishes - now it is my turn to be late responding to you. So sorry; it seems I am still playing catchup with answering folks since my computer has come back from the dead. (Hard drive crash left me out of commission for a couple of weeks, and I'm still coping with the repercussions.)
Hello! sothis is redesigning the anime-planet site, and plans to roll out an awesome new site design in July, we believe. The blog feature is not part of the new design, and it is going away. More information about this here: Announcement: the blog feature is being deprecated topic link. (Be sure to check out the new site design when it goes live!)
The blog pages are going away, and will be gone when the site redesign goes live. Your blog here will be removed from the site.
So, if want to keep the information posted in your blog, you will need to copy this information someplace else on the site. If you have any questions how or where to do this, please feel free to get back to me, and I will try to assist.


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1885 $2 1/2 MS63 Prooflike NGC....
2010 August Boston, MA Signature & Platinum Night ANA Coin Auction #1143
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Low-Mintage 1885 Quarter Eagle1885 $2 1/2 MS63 Prooflike NGC. An extremely important piece with full prooflike fields on both sides, and the second finest of just five examples designated prooflike by NGC. The coin has many characteristics found on proof strikes, including sharp design details and watery surfaces, although the depth of the strike is just shy of that expected on a proof.
MS63 Prooflike
MS63 Prooflike
The date is one of the important rarities among business strike Liberty quarter eagles, although it does not seem to get the respect of certain other issues. Just 800 non-proof pieces were coined, the fourth lowest production of the design behind 1854-S (246), 1875 (400), and 1881 (640). Three other dates deserve mention in this discussion: 1841 (believed a proof-only date with an unknown mintage), 1856-D (874 minted), and 1863 (proof-only, 30 pieces believed struck). (PCGS# 77837)
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Lemony Snicket
Lemony Snicket is the author of many books, including a new series, All the Wrong Questions, which begins this fall.
REASON 12: During his second term we will not hear the following things from President Obama—although we may have heard them from his political opponents.1. I don't know where Osama bin Laden is. I just don't spend that much time on it, to be honest with you.
In collaboration with:
George W. Bush (1)
Mitt Romney (2,11,13)
Hermain Cain (3)
Rick Santorum (4,7)
Paul Ryan, co-sponsoring the Sanctity of Human Life bill (5)
Mike Huckabee (6)
Newt Gingrich (8)
Sarah Palin (9)
Rick Perry (10)
Rush Limbaugh (12)
Obama teaches us to believe hope can lead to real change. read essay →
I'm voting for Obama because I love money, but I'm not money's bitch. read essay →
Because corporations are not people. People are better. read essay →


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Originally written on Fox Sports | Last updated 6/27/12
While Brooklyn Nets general manager Billy King was addressing the media Wednesday in advance of the NBA Draft, a familiar face poked his head into the media room at the team's training facility. It was none other than Brooklyn All-Star point guard Deron Williams, who was there to work out once again, like he's done nearly daily since the Nets' disastrous final season in New Jersey ended in April. On Sunday, Williams will become an unrestricted free agent, able to sign with any club willing to pay him. But his appearance Wednesday makes it seem that Williams is leaning toward re-signing with the Nets. King didn't offer any information about possible contract discussions with Williams or any other free agents. NBA rules prohibit personnel from discussing free agent contracts until after July 1. However, King didn't look or sound like a guy who is about to lose his franchise player. ''My feelings (about re-signing Williams) haven't wavered or changed,'' King said. ''I'm not overcon...
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Set children and adults alike screaming in fear in this classic Scream costume! Straight out of the frightening film, this scary kids costume includes a midnight-black robe with tattered sleeves and hem, matching belt, and the infamous ghostface mask--everything you need to haunt and horrify the…
They'll lock the doors when they see you trick-or-treating in this officially licensed Scream child costume. The black robe of this ghostface costume comes complete with a belt and familiar mask. What's your favorite scary movie?
Make menacing mayhem in this officially licensed Scream 4 Ghost Face Zombie adult plus size costume. The black hooded robe comes complete with a matching belt and the signature character mask. What's your favorite scary movie?
…sounds of bloodcurdling screams when you live large in this officially licensed Scream 4 Ghost Face adult costume inspired by the latest issue in the Wes Craven slasher film series Scream - Scream 4. Conjure up some frightful fun in this terrifying yet comfortable costume - let the games begin anew…
Tower over your next whimpering victim with this Stalker Knife in hand. Well-crafted, this plastic replica perfectly complements any psychopathic serial killer costume (sold separately). Smear fake blood (sold separately) on to the blade, and get ready to hear your victims Scream this Halloween!
Scare the neighbors when you wear the officially licensed Scream Light-Up Ghostface Adult Costume. This black robe comes complete with a belt, matching gloves and a light-up Ghostface mask. Batteries not included.
Make madness and mayhem in this officially licensed Scream 4 Ghost Face Zombie child's costume based on the latest issue in the Wes Craven slasher film series Scream. There's no limit to the frightful fun you will conjure up in this terrifying yet comfortable costume - let the games begin.
Give the party something to scream about when you arrive in this unforgiving Oktober Feast Adult Mens Costume. The printed lederhosen features detachable mesh dags and comes complete with a hat, mask and printed pullover shirt with attached mesh scarf.
…you wear this classic and officially licensed Friday the 13th Jason adult costume. Directly copied from the classic horror film series, this terrifying costume comes with the signature hockey mask and tattered brown jacket, ready to for slicing and screaming. Add a machete to complete your costume.
Cut through the night with this officially licensed Scream Ghostface Color Change Eyes child costume. The black robe of this Ghostface costume comes complete with a belt, black hooded mask and Ghostface print color change glasses along with black gloves.
Capture the menace and mayhem of the slasher movie series Scream in this sexy and officially licensed Scream Ghost Face adult womens costume. Lurk in the black, hooded dress and flirt while hiding behind the lorgnette-style character mask.
You won't be the only one that turns white when you wear this horrifying Screaming Ghost adult costume! Give everyone the fright they've been waiting for in these ragged white robes and skull mask. Only the bravest of men will dare approach you.
Give them all something to scream about when you wear this Don of the Dead Adult Men's Costume on Halloween. Tattered jacket features a pocket square and comes complete with matching pants, dickie, tie, matching fedora hat, creepy gloves and an even creepier mask.
Dare to be dead, deadly beautiful that is, in the Officially Licensed Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride Adult Women's costume. With a mesh of creepy and stunning elements this costume screams Halloween. Be titillating in this sweeping gown featuring a tattered open front hem. The scary skeleton arm and…
Freak everyone out at the Halloween party when you use this awesome Digital Dudz Flesh Wound Kit. 10-inch latex appliance features a hollow cavity for you to place your mobile device. Purchase comes with a free app download of an animation that will send them screaming!
…chill them chainsaw-fashion in this legendary officially licensed Leatherface costume! Straight from the Texas Chainsaw Massacre movie, the signature shirt, tie, bloody apron and character mask with life-like matted hair of this gory adult men's costume is sure send them screaming when you arrive.
Perform your missions under the cover of darkness when you wear this Zombie Ninja boys costume. The gray, screaming skull print tabard, comes complete with a tattered light gray shirt with an attached hood, matching pants, a belt and a fabric face mask with attached vinyl blood covered Ninja star.
Reap screams and terror when you wear the gruesome Grey Reaper adult costume and a scary demeanor. This classic costume is comfortable and easy to wear so you can party, play and prey upon your victims with ease.
They'll go ape when you arrive in this amazingly realistic black Gorilla costume. Go with a screaming blonde or a bunch of bananas - there's plenty of monkey business to be had in this Gorilla Adult Mens Costume!
Bring smiles to their faces, not screams when you wear this Tickles Clown Adult Womens Plus Size Costume. Colorful polkadot and striped dress with with hood, ruffled pants, toe toppers and scrunchies make for a silly costume. So bring some funny faces!
Complete any creepy Halloween costume with this scary sickle! This highly detailed, screaming skull sickle is the ideal weapon for warriors, reapers, and demons alike.
Be careful on Halloween! Cheerleaders tend to die first in horror movies. Sport these Black Pom Poms and Megaphone to complete your costume if you're up for the risk and scream extra loud!
Make your mark on Halloween in this sexy and officially licensed Crayola Crayon Green adult womens costume. The 100% polyester garment comes complete with black Crayola logo and a matching crayon point hat. You'll be the most vibrant crayon in the box!
Get kooky when you wear this officially licensed Addams Family Morticia Addams adult womens costume. The 100% polyester, long, slinky and altogether spooky black dress comes with cobweb sleeves and a pooled hem, so you'll surely be a scream on Halloween.


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"Forest walks - Chojnow Forest" Mazowsze Off The Beaten Path Tip by evaanna
Mazowsze Off The Beaten Path: 3 reviews and 10 photos
The Chojnow Forest (Lasy Chojnowskie) near Piaseczno is a great place for walks, picnics, riding a bike and it's easily accessible by car. The forest is criss-crossed with a network of paths and there are some marked educational nature trails too. On one of the boards marking the trail we found information on the time of day the various birds start singing in mid-May - a real bird alarm-clock. The forest is flanked by a small river on one side and a walk along it is probably the most interesting. You can also cross one of the footbridges on the river and walk along its other bank with a view of a pond on the other side. In winter, when we were there last, the dam was open so the pond wasn't there but in the summer you can see kayaks and water-bikes on the water.
Near the biggest car park there is a shelter where scouts organise their bonfires and meetings. Nearby there are some smaller shelters and benches where anyone can come and have a bonfire or just a picnic. There is also a children's playground with slides, swings and the like, although I think they dismantle some of the equipment for the winter.
On the other side of the main (dirt) track there is a memorial stone to the insurgents of the Warsaw Uprising who lost their lives in battle there.
To get to the forest, drive along Pulawska Street to Piaseczno (road 723), then take the road towards Gora Kalwaria. Look out for a sign for Zalesie, turn right and after a short time turn right again into a dirt track in the forest. Drive on till you get to a car park on your left and the memorial stone on your right. Mind, the track can be so muddy after rain that a small car might get stuck.
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Kate Moss's Self Tanner: Kate Moss is now shilling self-tanner.
shilling, a native of Arkansas, pleaded guilty to a pair of wire-fraud counts last July.
The hootenanny on political websites about the contest being up for grabs is shilling for advertising dollars.
Old English scilling, a coin consisting of a varying number of pence (on the continent, a common scale was 12 pennies to a shilling, 20 shillings to a pound), from Proto-Germanic *skillingoz- (cf. Old Saxon, Danish, Swedish, Old Frisian, Old High German skilling, Old Norse skillingr, Dutch schelling, German Schilling, Gothic skilliggs).
Some etymologists trace this to the root *skell- "to resound, to ring," and others to the root *(s)kel- (1) "to cut" (perhaps via sense of "shield" from resemblance or as a device on coins; see shield (n.)). The ending may represent the diminutive suffix -ling, or Germanic -ing "fractional part" (cf. farthing). Old Church Slavonic skulezi, Polish szelang, Spanish escalin, French schelling, Italian scellino are loan-words from Germanic.
"one who acts as a decoy for a gambler, auctioneer, etc.," 1916, probably originally circus or carnival argot, probably a shortened form of shillaber (1913) with the same meaning, origin unknown. The verb is attested from 1914. Related: Shilled; shilling.
Drunk: We'll eat good, then we'll get shikker
[1898+ Australia & New Zealand; fr Yiddish fr Hebrew shikkur]


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