text:
April 2009 (March 13, 2009 to April 9, 2009) In This Issue Inflation and Prices February Price Statistics Financial Markets, Money, and Monetary Policy The Yield Curve, March 2009 New Policy Moves and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility International Markets China, SDRs, and the Dollar Economic Activity and Labor Markets U.S. Real Estate: Looking for Progress in Price Stability and Financing Real GDP: Fourth Quarter 2008 FInal Estimate March Employment Situation An Overview of the Healthcare System Regional Activity Fourth District Employment Conditions, January Employment Loss in Ohio's Manufacturing Industry Fourth District Employment Conditions, February Inflation and Prices February Price Statistics 03.27.09 by Brent Meyer The CPI increased somewhat unexpectedly in Feb- February Price Statistics ruary, rising at an annualized rate of 4.8 percent, Percent change, last 2008 following a 3.4 percent gain last month. According 1mo.a 3mo.a 6mo.a 12mo. 5yr.a average to the release, roughly two-thirds of the headline Consumer Price Index increase was due to a jump in gasoline prices (up All items 4.8 −0.5 −5.0 0.2 2.6 0.3 8.3 percent nonannualized). The CPI excluding Less food and energy 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.8 2.2 1.8 food and energy (core CPI), increased 2.3 percent Medianb 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.9 during the month, outpacing all of its longer-term 16% trimmed meanb 2.5 1.7 1.3 2.6 2.6 2.7 trends (3-,6-,12-,60-month percent changes). Producer Price Index The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's measures Finished goods 1.4 −3.7 −11.9 −1.6 3.3 0.2 of underlying inflation trends, the median CPI Less food and energy 2.8 3.6 3.5 3.9 2.5 4.3 and the 16-percent trimmed-mean CPI, rose 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. Outside the a. Annualized. jump in gas prices, the price index for new vehicles b. Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Federal Reserve curiously spiked up 10.1 percent (annualized rate), Bank of Cleveland. its largest monthly increase since November 2004. Also, every subcategory of the apparel price index (except infant and toddler apparel) rose in excess of 8.0 percent during the month, which may suggest that some retail prices are starting to rebound after deeper-than-normal discounts over the holiday season. Given the relatively weak spending environ- ment, its seems hard to view these price changes as anything other than transitory. Even with February's jump, the CPI is still up CPI, Core CPI, and Trimmed-Mean CPI only 0.2 percent over the past 12 months. The Measures 12-month growth rates of all the core measures 12-month percent change ticked up in February and are now ranging between 6 1.8 percent and 2.8 percent. Since last July, the 12-month growth rate in the core CPI and the 16 5 percent trimmed-mean CPI have fallen appreciably, 4 while the median CPI has seen only a 0.4 percent- CPI Median CPIa age point decrease in its growth rate. 3 An investigation into the price-change distribution 2 revealed that roughly 27 percent of the consumer Core CPI 1 16% trimmed- market basket (by expenditure weight) increased mean CPIa at rates exceeding 5.0 percent in February, com- pared to 15 percent in January and an average of 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 24 percent during 2008. Roughly 27 percent of the a. Calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. weighted overall index exhibited price gains greater Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRBC. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 2 CPI Component Price-Change than 5.0 percent in February, more than double Distributions the percentage over the three months prior. That discrete change in the upper tail of the distribution, Weighted frequency combined with a break between that tail and the 40 February 2009 Average over three months prior rest of the distribution, suggests those gains may be 35 transitory. 30 25 Further evidence of fleeting relative price changes 20 is the 4.9 percent spike in core goods prices dur- ing February, their largest jump in nearly 10 years. 15 Over the past 12 months, core goods prices are still 10 slightly negative, at −0.04 percent. A more stable 5 trend has developed in core goods prices, which 0 <0 0 to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 >5 have risen less than 2.0 percent in four of the past Annualized monthly percentage change five months, compared to their average monthly Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. increase over the past five years of 3.1 percent. Longer-term (5-10 years ahead) average inflation Core CPI Goods and Core CPI Services expectations slipped 0.6 percentage point to 2.9 12-month percent change percent in March. Also, one-year-ahead average 8 inflation expectations have drifted lower than the One-month annualized percent change longer-term expectations recently and stand at 2.4 6 Core services percent currently. According to the University of 4 Michigan's release, "During the past five months, 2 on average 18 percent (of respondents) expected outright deflation in the year ahead and another 25 0 percent expected a zero inflation rate; in the com- -2 parable period one year ago, just 4 percent expected -4 Core goods deflation and 3 percent a zero inflation rate. Over- One-month annualized all, there has not been another period in the past percent change -6 quarter century that deflation was more widely 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 anticipated." Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Household Inflation Expectations 12-month percent change 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 One-year ahead 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Five-to-ten-years ahead 2.0 1.5 1.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Mean expected change as measured by the University of Michigan's Survey of C onsumers. Source: University of Michigan. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 3 Financial Markets, Money, and Monetary Policy The Yield Curve, March 2009 Yield Spread and Real GDP Growth 03.24.09 Percent by Joseph G. Haubrich and Kent Cherny 12 R eal G DP growth Since last month, the yield curve has moved lower 10 (year-to-year percent change) and flattened slightly, with long rates dropping a bit 8 more than short rates, though the difference be- 6 tween them remains strongly positive. 4 2 This difference, the slope of the yield curve, has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of 0 Ten-year minus three-month economic growth. The rule of thumb is that an -2 yield s pread inverted yield curve (short rates above long rates) -4 indicates a recession in about a year, and yield curve 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 inversions have preceded each of the last seven Note: Shaded bars represent recessions recessions (as defined by the NBER). In particular, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board. the yield curve inverted in August 2006, a bit more Yield Spread and One-Year Lagged than a year before the current recession started in Real Gdp Growth December 2007. There have been two notable false Percent positives: an inversion in late 1966 and a very flat 12 curve in late 1998. O ne year lagged real G DP growth 10 (year-to-year percent change) More generally, a flat curve indicates weak growth, 8 and conversely, a steep curve indicates strong 6 growth. One measure of slope, the spread between 4 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills, 2 bears out this relation, particularly when real GDP 0 growth is lagged a year to line up growth with the -2 Ten-year minus three-month spread that predicts it. yield s pread -4 Since last month, the 3-month rate edged down- 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2 ward from an already low 0.30 percent, to an even Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board. lower 0.22 percent (for the week ending March 20). The 10-year rate decreased from 2.88 percent Predicted GDP Growth and Yield Spread to 2.75 percent. This increased the slope to 253 Percent basis points, just down from February's 258 basis 6 points, and a bit above January's 237 basis points. R eal G DP growth 5 (year-to-year percent change) P redicted The flight to quality, the zero bound, and the tur- 4 G DP growth 3 moil in financial markets may impact the reliability of the yield curve as an indicator, but projecting 2 forward using past values of the spread and GDP 1 growth suggests that real GDP will grow at about 0 a 3.0 percent rate over the next year. This remains Ten-year minus three-month -1 yield s pread on the high side of other forecasts, many of which -2 expect much slower growth real GDP. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board. While such an approach predicts when growth is Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 4 Probability of Recession Based on the above or below average, it does not do so well in Yield Spread predicting the actual number, especially in the case of recessions. Thus, it is sometimes preferable to Percent 100 focus on using the yield curve to predict a discrete 90 event: whether or not the economy is in recession. P robability of Looking at that relationship, the expected chance 80 reces s ion 70 of the economy being in a recession next March F orecas t 60 stands at 1.1 percent, up slightly from February's 50 0.98 percent. 40 30 The probability of recession predicted by the yield 20 curve is very low and may seem strange in the midst 10 of recent financial news. But one consequence of 0 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 the financial environment has been a flight to quali- 4 ty, which lowers Treasury yields. Furthermore, both Notes: Estimated using probit model; shaded bars indicate recessions. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve Board; author's the federal funds target rate and the discount rate calculations. have remained low, which tends to result in a steep yield curve. Remember also that the forecast is for where the economy will be in a year, not where it is now. However, consider that in the spring of 2007, the yield curve was predicting a 40 percent chance of a recession in 2008, something that looked out of step with other forecasters at the time. To compare the 1.1 percent probability of reces- sion to what some other economists are predict- ing, head on over to the Wall Street Journal survey. Of course, it might not be advisable to take this number quite so literally, for two reasons. (Not even counting Paul Krugman's concerns.) First, this probability is itself subject to error, as is the case with all statistical estimates. Second, other researchers have postulated that the underlying determinants of the yield spread today are materi- ally different from the determinants that generated yield spreads during prior decades. Differences could arise from changes in international capital flows and inflation expectations, for example. The bottom line is that yield curves contain important information for business cycle analysis, but, like To read more on other forecasts: http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/11/gdp_mean_estima.html other indicators, they should be interpreted with For the Wall Street Journal survey: caution. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123445757254678091.html For more detail on these and other issues related to For Paul Krugman's column: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/the-yield-curve-wonkish/ using the yield curve to predict recessions, see the Commentary, "Does the Yield Curve Signal Reces- "Does the Yield Curve Yield Signal Recession?," by Joseph G. Haubrich. 2006. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary is available at: sion? " http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Commentary/2006/0415.pdf Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 5 Financial Markets, Money, and Monetary Policy New Policy Moves and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility 03.31.09 by Andrea Pescatori At its recent meeting on March 18, the Federal Buying Longer-Term Securities Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledged Billions of dollars that the economy is continuing to contract as "job 2000 losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and Projected through 1800 December 2009 tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer 1600 sentiment and spending." 1400 Mortgage-backed 1200 securities Because current economic conditions have rendered 1000 Federal agency debt the Fed's traditional interest rate channel no longer 800 Traditional security holdings securities viable for stimulating the economy, the FOMC 600 400 has turned to the use of credit-easing to support to 200 the real economy and the financial system. Credit- 0 easing, as Chairman Bernanke has explained, 6/08 8/08 10/08 12/08 2/09 4/09 6/09 8/09 10/09 12/09 means making "use of the asset side of the Federal Note: Traditional security holdings is equal to securities held outright, less Reserve's balance sheet." With credit-easing as its securities lent to dealers, less longer-term securities. Source: Federal Reserve Board alternative to traditional monetary policy tools, in- stead of influencing interest rates, the Fed changes the mix of the financial assets it holds, stimulating specific troubled markets in the process. In line with this new policy framework, the FOMC announced it would increase the size of the balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $100 billion of agency debt this year. These actions could bring the Fed's total purchases of agency securities to $1.25 trillion this year and agency debt to $200 billion. ("Agency" refers to the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Federal Home Loan Banks.) Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Trea- sury securities over the next six months. The purchase of mortgage-backed securities is focused on reducing the spreads of rates on GSE debt and on GSE-guaranteed mortgages, which, in turn, should reduce the cost of credit for the pur- chase of homes and increase its availability. Given the magnitude of the Fed's purchases, the FOMC's actions should not only foster improved conditions in financial markets but also support the hous- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 6 Fannie Mae and Treasury Yields ing market—which is at the heart of the current Percentage rate recession. At the same time, purchases of long- 4.5 term treasury notes should reduce long-term rates, Fannie Mae 10-year fixed-rate commitment rate helping financing long-term projects. At the day of 4.0 the announcement the 10-year treasury notes fell March 18 meeting date dramatically while the Fannie Mae 10-year rate had 3.5 a relatively minor impact. In addition to the housing market, the Federal 3.0 10-year Treasury Reserve Board, in conjunction with the Treasury, 2.5 is committed to supporting another specific credit market that has been under strain recently. The 2.0 Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) 3/11 3/14 3/17 3/20 3/23 3/26 is a credit-easing tool that aims to directly support Source: Federal Reserve Board, Bloomberg. the market for securitized assets. The TALF is part of a broader program announced last February by the Obama administration along with the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Comptroller of the Currency that is intended to restore stability to the financial system more broadly. The TALF is designed to support the issuance of as- set-backed securities (ABS) collateralized by student loans, auto loans, credit card loans, and loans guar- anteed by the Small Business Administration. Over the past two decades, those credit markets have grown rapidly and become an important means by which financial institutions fund loans to businesses and consumers. Strong investor demand for securi- ties structured for different risk appetites allowed banks and other financial institutions to sell con- sumer and business loans in the form of ABSs at relatively low yields. This in turn allowed lenders to increase the availability of credit and lower the rates at which they extended credit to consumers and businesses throughout the economy. Since the beginning of the financial crisis, however, those ABS markets have been under strain. With the strain accelerating in the third quarter of 2008, the market came to a near-complete halt—the chart below shows the dramatic drop in the issuance of new consumer ABSs. Since the beginning of the financial crisis, however, those ABS markets have been under strain. With the strain accelerating in the third quarter of 2008, the market came to a near-complete halt—the chart below shows the dramatic drop in the issuance of new consumer ABSs. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 7 Consumer ABS Issuance At the same time, interest rate spreads on AAA- rated tranches of ABSs rose to levels well outside Billions the range of historical experience, reflecting unusu- 25 Student loan ABS ally high risk premiums, and these subdued only in Auto ABS part after the first announcement of the TALF in 20 Credit card ABS November 2008. 15 Continued disruption of these markets could signif- icantly limit the availability of credit, contributing 10 to further weakening of U.S. economic activity. The renewed issuance of ABSs at more normal interest 5 rate spreads, which the TALF is intended to foster, should help restore these markets and simulate 0 1/07 5/07 9/07 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 economic activity. Source: Bloomberg. Under the TALF, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will provide nonrecourse funding to any eligible borrower owning eligible collateral. On a fixed day each month, borrowers will be able to ABS Rates request one or more three-year TALF loans. As the Percentage rate loan is nonrecourse, if the borrower does not repay 22 TALF announced the loan, the New York Fed will enforce its rights to 20 18 the collateral. 16 Merrill Lynch asset-backed master Three requirements are intended to protect the Fed 14 12 from the risk of losses. First, the ABS must have the 10 Auto ABS highest investment-grade rating category from two 8 or more major nationally recognized statistical rat- 6 ing organizations. This requirement should reduce 4 Credit card ABS the risk that the ABSs accepted will fall dramati- 2 cally in value. Second, borrowers will pay a risk 0 1/08 4/08 7/08 10/08 1/09 4/0 premium set to a margin above the Libor (usually 1 percent). Third, "haircuts" ranging from 5 percent Source: Federal Reserve Board, Merrill Lynch. to 15 percent will be figured into the loans. That is, the amount the TALF will extend a loan for can be only as high as the par or market value of the ABS minus the haircut. This requirement means that if the borrower defaults on the loan and the Fed seizes the collateral, the Fed loses nothing unless the value of the collateral has fallen more than the haircut. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 8 TALF loans should have a maturity of less than three years, and the underlying loans must have been originated after fall 2007. The TALF is already operational: the initial TALF subscription was held Tuesday, March 17, 2009, with a loan settlement date of Wednesday, March 25, 2009. Going for- ward, monthly subscriptions are scheduled for the first Tuesday of every month. For more on the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's research on the credit easing policy: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0209/02monpol. cfm Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 9 International Markets China, SDRs, and the Dollar 03.31.09 by Owen Humpage and Michael Shenk China wants a new international reserve currency that is "disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country." Countries acquire portfolios of foreign exchange when they limit the appreciation of the curren- cies in the face of balance-of-payments surpluses. China, which holds a huge portfolio of foreign ex- change, mostly in dollar-denominated assets, claims that credit-based national reserve currencies, like the dollar, are inherently risky, contribute to global imbalances, and facilitate the spread of financial crises. The Peoples Bank of China recently recom- mended supplanting the dollar with Special Draw- ing Rights (SDRs). The International Monetary Fund created SDRs as an international reserve in 1969 to solve problems that rose out of the Bretton Woods fixed-exchange- rate system. By the mid-1960s, U.S. dollar li- abilities to foreigners exceeded the U.S. gold stock, effectively nullifying the lynchpin of the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. promise to convert all dollars held abroad into gold at a fixed price. As a consequence of this development, some countries, notably France, sought to replace the dollar with a reserve currency unrelated to a single national cur- rency, if not solely related to gold. The IMF initially defined the SDR in terms of a fixed amount of gold (at that point in time equal to $1) and allocated 9.3 billion SDRs between 1970 and 1972 to member countries in proportion to their quotas. Following the widespread acceptance of floating exchange rates in the mid-1970s, the IMF redefined the SDR as weighted average of the U.S. dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen, and the currencies that eventually comprised the euro, and made a second—and last—allocation of 21.4 billion SDRs between 1979 and 1981. The SDR never supplanted the dollar as a reserve currency unit; instead, it devolved by and large into a unit of account. Despite repeated complaints Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 10 Exchange Rate Pairs about the dollar's role as a reserve currency, particu- larly when the dollar depreciated on a broad basis, Euro/all other the dollar remains the world's key international 9.7% U.S. dollars/euro currency. A substantial portion of international All others 27.3% trade—even trade not directly involving the United 4.0% States—is routinely denominated in U.S. dollars. This is especially true of trade in fairly standard- ized commodities, like oil, coffee, and wheat, and products that trade in highly competitive markets. As a consequence, traders finance a good portion U.S. dollars/yen of their trade in dollars, so they maintain accounts, 12.9% seek loans, and undertake other types of banking U.S. dollars/all other arrangements in dollars. Foreign banks, eager to 34.4% U.S. dollars/British pounds serve their customers, hold portfolios of dollar as- 11.7% sets and liabilities. With dollars widely traded and Source: Bank for International Settlements, Triennial Central Bank Survey, 2007. held, other dollar-denominated financial market flourished. This trading and financial network affords dollar users huge economies, which other currency net- works do not match. Consequently, many foreign Foreign Exchange Reserves individuals, households, companies, and even gov- Trillions of U.S. dollars ernments maintain significant proportions of both 2 their assets and their liabilities in dollar-denominat- 1.8 ed instruments. China, Japan, Russia, and India, 1.6 for example, hold very large portfolios of dollar- China 1.4 denominated reserves. In some countries, notably 1.2 Panama, the dollar has replaced national currencies. 1 According to a 2007 survey, roughly $3.2 trillion Japan 0.8 Russia worth of foreign exchange changes hands each day 0.6 Korea and 86 percent of those transactions involve dollars. 0.4 India The euro, the second-most widely used internation- 0.2 al currency, lags well behind the dollar. 0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Establishing the SDR as a new international reserve currency may be technically feasible, but it will Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics. be a long time before it can truly function as an international currency. Countries may convert their reserves into SDRs, but until the private sector adopts SDRs, these countries will still need to acquire dollars or euros or some other national currency to spend their reserves. The private sector will only adopt the SDR if it offers network ben- efits, comparable to the dollar, but that could take decades. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 11 In the meantime, countries worried about their expanding dollar portfolios might take a different tack: Allow their currencies to float and adopt a domestic monetary policy focused on long-term price stability. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 12 Economic Activity U.S. Real Estate: Looking for Progress in Price Stability and Financing Home Prices and Equity Extraction 03.30.09 Price index, 2000:Q1 = 100 by O. Emre Ergungor and Kent Cherny Billions 200 1000 The Case-Shiller composite price index continues Net home equity extraction 800 to indicate contraction in U.S. residential home 180 600 values. In the fourth quarter of 2009, the index 160 stood at 139.14, down a cumulative 26.7 percent 400 from its peak during the second quarter of 2006. 140 200 By now the story of how we ended up here has 0 become almost passé: a combination of low interest 120 rates, loose lending standards, and financial inno- S&P/Case-Shiller home price index -200 vation produced a boom in real estate prices on a 100 -400 broad, national level. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Rapid valuation increases allowed homeowners to Sources: Standard & Poor's Financial Services, LLC, Federal Reserve Board. continually refinance their mortgages and extract Troubled Loans new equity as cash, as shown in the figure below. At its peak in the first quarter of 2006, the volume of Percentage of mortgages past due or in foreclosure 55 equity extraction was over $900 billion. 50 By mid-2008 net equity extraction turned negative, 45 Subprime adjustable-rate as plummeting home values meant that many home 40 35 owners were under water, with total housing debt Subprime fixed-rate 30 exceeding the value of the underlying property. 25 20 Some homeowners and investors who opted not 15 to walk away from troubled mortgages found they 10 Prime fixed-rate Prime adjustable-rate could no longer afford their monthly payments. 5 Troubled loan rates have been and continue to be 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 notably higher for adjustable-rate mortgages than Source: Mortgage Bankers Association for fixed-rate mortgages (in both the prime and subprime categories). Home Prices and Rents As of the fourth quarter of 2008, 17.1 percent of Indexed ratio, Q1-87 = 1.00 prime ARM mortgages were troubled loans (those 1.60 either delinquent or in foreclosure), compared to 1.50 5.3 percent of prime fixed-rate mortgages. Like- Case-Shiller Index to 1.40 owners' equivalent rent wise, 51.8 percent of subprime ARMs were past 1.30 due or in foreclosure, compared to 27.8 percent for fixed-rate subprime mortgages. Many ARMs were 1.20 originated with teaser rates that lasted only a year 1.10 or two before kicking up to higher interest rates, 1.00 which lenders did not see as terribly problematic 0.90 when home prices were appreciating rapidly and 0.80 mortgages could be continuously refinanced. But 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 when home prices begin to fall, refinancing is less Source: Standard & Poor's Financial Services, LLC, Bureau of Labor Statstics. of an option, and a rising unemployment rate only Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 13 Residential Mortgage Rates adds to the upward pressure on delinquencies and Percentage rate foreclosures. 10 Is there a way to know when home prices will reach 9 a bottom? Any guess is complicated by the current Jumbo rate state of the economy and financial markets. High 8 negative sentiment among consumers and inves- 30-year conventional fixed-rate 7 tors, combined with impaired credit markets, could cause the market to undershoot when equilibrating 6 long-run supply and demand. (This in part explains why policymakers at all levels have been acting to 5 support the housing market: Homes serve as col- 4 lateral for trillions of dollars in loans, and so are 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 intimately tied to financial stability.) Source: Federal Reserve Board, Wall Street Journal. Still, some commentators have put forth ideas for Commercial Real Estate Prices determining a general range in which home prices Price index, 1994:Q1 = 100 might stabilize. For example, economists at the 320 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta compared the Office historical relationship between home prices and the 280 labor force size. Industrial 240 One other potentially useful ratio is that of home prices to owners' equivalent rent, a component of 200 Apartments Retail the CPI. Between 1987 and the start of the credit 160 bubble in the early 2000s, the ratio fluctuated around 1.00, staying within a 0.10 range. It really 120 began to take off in 2002, peaked at 1.59 in 2006, 80 and only in the fourth quarter of 2008 did it again 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 enter the range it had been in before the bubble. Source: MIT Center for Real Estate. Although this ratio does not necessarily indicate stabilization in the residential housing market, it Spread Between Ten-Year Commercial may be a positive sign that prices are getting closer Mortgage-Backed Securities and to their long-run fundamental values. Treasuries Like residential property, commercial real estate Spread in basis points experienced its own boom in values (although it 9000 peaked about a year later than the residential mar- 8000 ket). Apartment, office, retail, and industrial real 7000 estate values all increased dramatically in the 2005- BBB- 2008 period. Since the market peak in mid-to- 6000 BBB late-2007, all have fallen at least 9 percent (retail), 5000 A with industrial property values falling 25 percent. 4000 AA Though prices have fallen substantially from their 3000 highs, a bottom is difficult to predict, given that 2000 AAA commercial mortgage cash flows are heavily de- 1000 pendent on economic conditions. The ability of 0 commercial enterprises to stay in business and meet 1/07 5/07 9/07 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 their rent or mortgage payments is likely to closely Source: Morgan Stanley. track the severity (and eventual end) of the current Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 14 recession, as will commercial real estate prices. Hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial real estate loans were packaged into commercial mort- gage-backed securities (CMBS) in recent years, and the illiquidity in asset-backed markets generally has hit CMBS in a big way, as shown by their associ- ated risk premiums. AAA-rated tranches of CMBS currently trade at about the 10-year Treasury rate plus 10 percent. The lower grades of securities trade at spreads of 60 percent to 90 percent. As noted earlier, market prices can hit distressed levels if financial markets are not operating normally. Exor- bitant spreads in the CMBS market reflect both the credit-quality degradation associated with the reces- sion and the impairment of the financial markets. A major concern is that problems in the credit market will prevent large amounts of commercial real estate debt from being rolled over (that is, refinanced). Notice, however, that AAA spreads recently began to decrease. This may be a response to the recent announcement that the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) would accept CMBS as collateral and thus aid the return of liquidity to the market. To read the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's piece on the histori- cal relationship between home prices and the labor force size: http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2008/09/wall-street-wor. html For more on the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's research on credit easing: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0209/02monpol. cfm Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 15 Economic Activity Real GDP: Fourth-Quarter 2008 Final Estimate 03.30.09 by Brent Meyer Real GDP and Components, 2008:Q4 The final estimate of real GDP in the fourth quar- Final Estimate ter of 2008 came in at −6.3 percent (annualized Annualized percent change, last: rate), 0.1 percentage points (pp) lower than the Quarterly change preliminary estimate and whopping 2.5 pp below (billions of 2000$) Quarter Four quarters the advance estimate. Real GDP −190.4 −6.3 −0.8 Personal consumption −90.1 −4.3 −1.5 The primary drivers of the further downward revi- Durables −71.5 −22.1 −11.4 sion in the final estimate were downward adjust- Nondurables −57.7 −9.4 −3.4 ments to private inventories, business fixed invest- Services 18.1 1.5 1.1 ment, and government consumption. The change Business fixed investment −84.6 −21.7 −5.2 in private inventories was updated to show a 0.1 pp Equipment −83.5 −28.1 −11.0 subtraction from real GDP growth, 0.3 pp lower Structures −8.5 −9.4 6.3 than the preliminary estimate, and 1.4 pp less than Residential investment −22.1 −22.7 −19.4 the advance estimate. Business fixed investment Government spending 6.6 1.3 3.2 was adjusted down 0.1 pp from the preliminary to National defense 4.6 3.4 8.8 final release, and government consumption ticked Net exports −11.4 — — down 0.1 pp as well. Tempering the downward Exports −101.2 −23.6 −1.8 adjustments was a 0.3 pp upward revision to real Imports −89.7 −17.5 −7.5 imports, as the decrease in imports deepened to Private inventories −25.8 — — −17.5 percent (annualized rate) from −16.0 percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. (imports subtract from output in the GDP calcula- tion; therefore, a decrease in imports adds to real GDP growth). Contribution to Percent Change in Real GDP Recent data on consumption suggest that we might not experience a third consecutive quarter of nega- Percentage points tive spending growth, which would be a postwar 4 2008:Q4 advance estimate record, even though real personal consumption 2008:Q4 preliminary estimate 3 2008:Q4 final estimate Change in slipped down 0.2 percent (nonannualized) in Feb- 2 inventories ruary, because an upward revision nearly doubled Government January's estimate—from a 0.4 percent increase to 1 spending Personal Residential Exports 0.7 percent. According to the release, consump- consumption investment 0 tion was bumped up due to the recent unexpected Imports -1 strength in the retail sales indicators. -2 Total retail sales actually declined 0.1 percent in -3 Business February, but they came in above expectations of fixed investment a −0.5 percent decline. Excluding motor vehicle -4 and parts dealers, retail sales increased 0.7 percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis during the month. This follows a large (upwardly revised) 1.8 percent jump in total retail sales during January. Over the past 12 months, total sales are still down 8.6 percent, though this is somewhat of Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 16 Total Retail Sales an improvement over the current cyclical low of 12-month percent change −10.5 percent, which occurred in December. 12 Panelists on the Blue Chip survey continued to 10 revise down their annual estimates for real GDP 8 6 in 2009. As of the first week of March, they expect 4 a first-quarter decrease of 5.3 percent. There are a 2 couple of encouraging signs in the survey, if the re- 0 spondents are to be believed. First, their first-quar- -2 -4 ter estimate is for a slightly less severe contraction. -6 Second, the consensus viewpoint is for the recession -8 to end by midyear (even the average of the 10 most -10 -12 pessimistic respondents is for positive GDP growth 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 by the fourth quarter of 2009). Source: Census Bureau Real GDP Growth Annualized quarterly percent change 5 3 1 -1 -3 Final estimate -5 Advance estimate Preliminary estimate Blue Chip consensus forecast -7 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March 2009; Bureau of Economic Analysis. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 17 Economic Activity March Employment Situation 04.06.09 by Murat Tasci and Beth Mowry Average Nonfarm Employment Change Payroll employment continued its sharp drop in March, declining by 663,000. Revisions left Febru- Change, thousands of jobs ary's losses unchanged at 651,000, but January's 400 Revised losses increased to 741,000 (from 655,000 reported 200 Previous estimate last month). Job losses were spread across all major 0 industry groups, with the lone exception of health- care. The unemployment rate continued to rise, -200 increasing 0.4 percentage point to 8.5 percent, the -400 highest rate since 1983. -600 Goods-producing industries shed 305,000 jobs -800 in March, and service-providing industries lost 2006 2007 2008 Q:3 Q:4 Q:1 January March 2008 February 358,000. The losses were spread between construc- 2009 tion (126,000) and manufacturing (161,000). Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. These two sectors alone are responsible for half of all the 5.1 million jobs lost since the start of the recession in December 2007. Manufacturing owes three-quarters of its decline last month to durable goods. Among service-providing industries, professional and business services sustained the heaviest losses (133,000), largely due to payroll declines in tem- porary help services (71,700). The trade, transpor- tation, and utilities sector shed 112,000 jobs last month. Within this sector, the retail trade drop of 48,000 was due mostly to declines at building material and garden supply stores, electronics and appliance stores, and auto dealerships. Motor vehicle and parts dealers continued to see high casualties (−16,000), as did truck transporta- tion (−15,000). The financial activities sector lost 43,000 jobs last month, and leisure and hospitality lost 40,000. Education and health services stayed positive, but added just 8,000 jobs, compared to its average addition of about 40,000 each month over the past year. Healthcare carried all the gains within this sector, as education services actually experi- enced losses. Even though the federal government was still hiring in March, the government sector as a whole recorded 5,000 losses due to cuts at the state and local levels. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 18 Labor Market Conditions Average monthly change (thousands of employees, NAICS) 2006 2007 2008 March 2009 Payroll employment 178 96 −257 −663 Goods-producing 5 −34 −126 −305 Construction 15 −16 −57 −126 Heavy and civil engineering 3 0 −6 −10.4 Residentiala −5 −23 −35 −58.7 Nonresidentialb 16 6 −16 −57.3 Manufacturing −14 −22 −73 −161 Durable goods −4 −16 −54 −125 Nondurable goods −10 −5 −19 −36 Service-providing 173 130 −131 −358 Retail trade 3 14 −44 −47.8 Financial activitiesc 9 −10 −19 −43 PBSd 45 25 −63 −133 Temporary help services 2 −7 −44 −71.7 Education and health services 39 43 43 8 Leisure and hospitality 33 21 −21 −40 Government 17 24 14 −5 Local educational services 6 8 1 −0.8 Average for period (percent) Civilian unemployment rate 4.6 4.6 5.8 8.1 a. Includes construction of residential buildings and residential specialty trade contractors. b. Includes construction of nonresidential buildings and nonresidential specialty trade contractors. c. Includes the finance, insurance, and real estate sector and the rental and leasing sector. d. PBS is professional business services (professional, scientific, and technical services, management of companies and enterprises, administrative and support, and waste management and remediation services. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private-sector employment dropped by another Private Sector Employment Growth 658,000 in March, making it the fifth straight Thousands of jobs month in which the monthly decline exceeded 400 600,000. Since November 2008, the private sector has lost more than 3 million jobs. Finding larger 200 declines in private employment would require 0 looking all the way back to the late 1940s and mid- 1950s. -200 The Bureau of Labor Statistics' diffusion index of -400 employment change also crept slightly higher in -600 Monthly change March, inching from a reading of 21.4 to 22.0, Three-month moving average meaning only 22 percent of all industries are -800 increasing employment while the rest are mak- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ing cuts. The index began back in 1991, and since Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. then, only December 2008 and February 2009 have had worse readings. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 19 Economic Activity An Overview of the Healthcare System Healthcare Employment 04.07.09 by Michael Shenk Percent of total employment 10.5 Despite much of policy makers' time being devoted 10.0 to the ongoing financial crisis and the resulting 9.5 recession, there seems t be a great deal of resolve to tackle the pressing issue of healthcare reform. With 9.0 this in mind, it is a good time to take a look at the 8.5 healthcare industry. 8.0 As a portion of total employment, the industry is 7.5 relatively large, accounting for 10 percent of total 7.0 employment in February 2008, up from 7.5 per- 6.5 cent of employment in 1990. In contrast to most 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 other industries, employment in healthcare has Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. been remarkably resilient over the past three reces- Healthcare Consumption sions. In fact, since the 1990 recession healthcare Percent employment has actually increased at a faster rate 20 during recessions and at a slower rate during the post recession period. Thus far healthcare employ- 16 Percent of total consumption ment has increased 3.2 percent since the start of our current recession while total service employ- 12 ment has fallen by 2.3 percent. Part of the reason healthcare employment has continued to increase 8 Percent of GDP is due to increasing demand for healthcare services. Currently, healthcare expenditures make up 18.3 4 percent of the country's personal consumption ex- 0 penditures that equates to roughly 12.8 percent of 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007 total GDP. Those numbers are up from 3.5 percent of consumption and 2.3 percent of GDP in 1947. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis As the demand for healthcare has increased, so CPI: Medical Care has its price. While pundits frequently talk about Percent change, year over year healthcare inflation, the term is a bit of a misno- 10 mer. Inflation is the result of an excess supply of 9 money that results in an increase in the price level 8 (in other words, an increase in the average price of 7 6 all goods and services). What has been attracting 5 Medical care the attention of health policy analysts for years is 4 that healthcare prices are going up more quickly 3 than those for other goods and services in the econ- 2 omy. Economists refer to this as a "relative price Headline CPI 1 movement," and it is independent of inflation. The 0 increase in the cost of health insurance is a direct -1 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 result of healthcare's relative price increase and Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. peoples' demand for more health services. While Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 20 the increasing cost of healthcare is one of the driv- ing forces behind calls for reform, there is no obvi- ous or rational way to curb increases in demand for healthcare: it appears to be a natural result of rising incomes and improved medical technology. One potentially effective way to prevent prices from increasing rapidly would be to enact policies that encourage increases in the supply of healthcare. Health Insurance Coverage Another driving force behind calls for healthcare Percent of population reform is the issue of access to care. As of 2007, 87.5 only 67.5 percent of people were covered by pri- 87.0 vate health insurance. While government insurance plans such as Medicare and Medicaid covered an 86.5 additional 17.2 percent of people, 15.3 percent 86.0 percent of people had no health insurance in 2007. 85.5 That 15 percent includes both people who are able to afford insurance but decide not to purchase it, 85.0 as well as those who claim to be unable to afford 84.5 insurance but do not qualify for Medicaid. 84.0 Another more recent argument for healthcare 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 reform is that our employer-based system places Source: Census Bureau. an unnecessary burden on companies, making it more difficult for them to compete in the global economy. This argument doesn't seem to hold much weight. When a company employs someone, the total cost of employing that person is what mat- ters. Their willingness to employ someone depends on the value that person provides to the company relative to the cost of their total compensation; the form of that compensation is irrelevant. For example, if a firm values an employee at $100,000 per year, then all else constant, the firm will be indifferent between paying that employee a salary of $100,000 and paying that employee a salary of $90,000 plus $10,000 in health insurance. The fact that companies pay for employees' health insurance indicates that they find some benefit in doing so. If it was more cost-effective to pay only cash salaries and have employees acquire their own insurance, companies would pay employees accordingly. There are several potential reasons why employ- ers prefer to provide their employees with health insurance instead of compensating them in cash alone. One is the tax treatment of employer-pro- vided health insurance. Because employer-provided healthcare is purchased pre-tax, the employer can Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 21 Employer Cost of Employee purchase more coverage than the employee would Compensation be able to if compensated with an equivalent amount of cash. As a result, employees are either Dollars per hour better off or employers are able to compensate less 30 than they otherwise would. On top of the income 25 tax savings for individuals, both the employee and Total compensation the employer save substantially on payroll taxes. 20 Employees making under the maximum amount 15 subject to social security save an amount equal to Wages and salaries 7.65 percent of the cost of coverage, while the em- 10 ployer saves the same amount for each employee. In Other benefits addition, employers can purchase group coverage 5 Health insurance for a lower premium than a typical employee could 0 get on their own: in group plans insurers do not 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 have to worry as much about adverse selection (less Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. healthy people buying health insurance and health- ier people foregoing it). Aside from being more cost-effective, employer-provided health insur- ance may benefit employers by reducing employee turnover and also by encouraging employees to invest in their health (reducing the aggregate cost of sick leave). Given all the complex interactions, any move away from health insurance's current funding system needs to be carefully considered. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 22 Regional Activity Fourth District Employment Conditions Unemployment Rates 03.20.09 Percent by Kyle Fee 9 The District's unemployment rate shot up 0.6 8 Fourth Districta percentage point to 8.1 percent for the month of 7 January. The increase in the unemployment rate is 6 attributed to an increase of the number of people unemployed (8.2 percent) and a decrease in the 5 number of people employed (−1.0 percent). Com- United States 4 pared to the national rate in January, the District's unemployment rate (0.5 percentage point) stood 3 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 higher, as it has been since early 2004. However, a. Seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's X-11 procedure. over the past year the gap between unemployment Note: Shaded bars represent recessions. Some data reflect revised inputs, reestimation, and new statewide controls. For more information, see rates has all but vanished as a result of the current http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. recession. Since the same time last year, the Fourth District and the national unemployment rates have County Unemployment Rates both increased by 2.7 percentage points. U.S. unemployment rate = 7.6% Unemployment rates vary considerably across counties in the Fourth District. Of the 169 coun- ties that make up the District, 43 had an unem- ployment rate below the national average in Janu- ary and 126 counties had rates higher than the national average. There were 58 District counties 5.7% - 7.0% reporting double-digit unemployment rates, while 7.1% - 8.0% 8.1% - 9.0% only five counties had an unemployment rate below 9.1% - 10.0% 6.0 percent. Rural Appalachian counties continue 10.1% - 11.0% to experience higher levels of unemployment, as do 11.1% - 14.0% counties along the Ohio-Michigan border. More Note: Data are seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's recently, counties on the Ohio side of the Ohio- X-11 procedure. Pennsylvania border have seen spikes in unemploy- Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. ment rates. County Unemployment Rates The distribution of unemployment rates among Percent Fourth District counties ranges from 5.7 percent to 15 14 Ohio Kentucky Pennsylvania West Virginia 14.0 percent, with a median county unemployment 13 rate at 9.1 percent. Counties in Fourth District 12 11 Median unemployment rate = 9.1% West Virginia and Pennsylvania generally popu- 10 late the lower half of the distribution while Fourth 9 District Kentucky and Ohio counties continue to 8 7 dominate the upper half of the distribution. These 6 county-level patterns are reflected in state-wide 5 4 unemployment rates as Ohio and Kentucky have 3 unemployment rates of 8.8 percent and 8.7 per- County cent, respectively, compared to Pennsylvania's 7.0 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's X-11 procedure. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. percent and West Virginia's 5.3 percent. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 23 Regional Activity Employment Loss in Ohio's Manufacturing Industry 03.30.09 by Kyle Fee Ohio is often thought of as a state with a relatively Manufacturing as a Percent of large share of economic activity coming from the Total Employment manufacturing sector, especially heavy manufactur- Percent ing. Even after the sharp declines in the iron and 25 steel industries in the 1980s, Ohio still had 21.7 Ohio percent of its workforce in the manufacturing sec- Nation tor in 1990. This was 34 percent more than the 20 U.S. manufacturing employment share. 15 However, over the last several decades, Ohio's man- ufacturing employment has declined more rapidly 10 than the nation's as a whole. By 2007, Ohio's share of employment in manufacturing reached 14.2 per- 5 cent, while the nation's stood at 10.1 percent. But manufacturing still makes up an important share of 0 1990 2007 employment in Ohio, and the current recession has Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. hit Ohio's primary manufacturing industries, such as the automotive sector, particularly hard. Ohio's trends in manufacturing employment have followed the nation's over the last three business cycles. After the recession of the early 1990s, manu- facturing recovered slowly, and it never returned to prerecession employment levels. In the 2001 recession, employment in manufacturing declined sharply and never recovered. In fact, between the last recession and the current recession, manufac- turing employment in both the state and the nation steadily declined, with Ohio experiencing a larger drop. This steady employment decline reflects both the movement of manufacturing overseas and improvement in productivity, which made manu- facturing leaner, especially with respect to labor inputs. Since December 2007, employment losses in manufacturing have accelerated. Ohio saw losses of 13.5 percent, while the nation saw losses of 9.5 percent. Employment losses in the manufactur- ing sector account for a disproportionate amount of overall job loss in the current recession in the United States, but especially in Ohio. Forty-seven percent (102,700 jobs) of total job losses in Ohio Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 24 Manufacturing Payroll Employment and 30 percent (1,300,000 jobs) of total U.S. job Index, December 2007=100 losses are due to the manufacturing sector. 150 Looking at job declines by specific manufacturing 140 industry shows which industries are driving the Ohio employment losses. Several industries stand out. 130 First, the metals industry accounts for a larger share 120 of Ohio manufacturing employment than U.S. Nation manufacturing employment, and while the indus- 110 try has experienced similar percentage employment 100 losses in both the state and the nation, Ohio's larger 90 employment share makes the industry a more im- portant contributor to Ohio's employment losses. 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Industry Employment Growth Since December 2007 Ohio, percent of Nation, percent of Nation, employment Ohio, employment total manufacturing total manufacturing growth since December growth since December (2007) (2007) 2007 (percent) 2007 (percent) Nonmetallic mineral products 4.0 3.6 −12.2 −13.1 Primary metals 6.5 3.3 −11.4 −13.1 Fabricated metal products 15.3 11.3 −1.2 −10.5 Machinery 10.7 8.6 −9.3 −7.7 Computer and electronic products 2.9 9.2 0.1 −4.7 Electrical equipment, appliances, 4.1 3.1 −8.2 −5.9 and components Transportation 17.4 12.3 −21.6 −15.8 Furniture and related products 2.7 3.8 −17.5 −18.6 Food 7.0 10.7 −7.9 −1.3 Printing and related support activities 4.0 4.5 −7.4 −10.1 Chemical 6.0 6.2 −4.3 −3.0 Plastic and rubber products 8.3 5.5 −15.5 −10.7 Miscellaneous 11.1 18.0 −22.9 −10.4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Second, Ohio has a relatively large employment share in transportation-related manufacturing industries, and these industries have experienced relatively large employment declines in Ohio. In the United States as a whole, manufacturers of transportation goods have shed 15.8 percent of their employment since the recession began, but in Ohio the decline is 21.6 percent. In fact, the trans- portation industry accounts for 27.8 percent of the entire manufacturing sector's employment loss in Ohio, or about 28,400 jobs. For the United States Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 25 Transportation Industries: as whole, transportation accounts for only 18.5 Employment Growth Since December 2007 percent of the nation's losses in manufacturing, or about 240,000 jobs. Nation Third, industries in which employment losses so far Transportation Ohio equipment have been relatively small across the country, such as computers and electronics and food and chemi- Motor vehicles cal industries, fared differently in Ohio and the and parts U.S. as a whole. Ohio's computers and electronics Aerospace products industry actually had positive growth, but this was and parts primarily due to the state's smaller share of employ- ment in the industry, 2.9 percent, compared to the Other nation's 9.2 percent. Somewhat surprisingly, Ohio's food industry has also been hit relatively hard in -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 this recession, with job losses of 7.9 percent, com- Percent pared to the nation's loss of 1.3 percent. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics A finer industry breakout of the transportation sector shows the role of the automotive industry on employment losses. The two largest employment sectors in transportation are motor vehicles and parts and aerospace products and parts. All things considered, aerospace has held up relatively well. However, employment in the automotive industries has declined 25 percent in both the United States as a whole and Ohio. Unfortunately, the automo- tive industry is much more important as a share of manufacturing employment in Ohio than in the nation as a whole. It represented 13.8 percent of manufacturing employment in Ohio at the start of the recession, compared to 7.2 percent nationwide. The "other" segment in the chart below represents a relatively small share of manufacturing transpor- tation employment and is primarily composed of manufacturing related to railroads, rolling stock, and ship and boat building. Ohio has seen a decline in excess of 20 percent for this segment compared to -4.4 percent for the nation. Given the current state of the automotive industry, it would not be surprising to see employment in automotive-related industries decline further in both Ohio and the country at large, as industry restructuring continues. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 26 Regional Activity Fourth District Employment Conditions 04.06.09 by Kyle Fee The District's unemployment rate jumped 0.7 Unemployment Rates percentage point to 8.8 percent for the month of Percent February. The increase in the unemployment rate is 9 attributed to an increase of the number of people 8 unemployed (8.2 percent) and a decrease in the Fourth Districta number of people employed (−0.2 percent). The 7 District's unemployment rate was again higher than 6 the national rate in February (by 0.7 percentage point), as it has consistently been since early 2004. 5 Since the recession began, the nation's monthly United States 4 unemployment rate has been 0.6 percentage point lower on average than the Fourth District unem- 3 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 ployment rate. Since this time last year, the Fourth a. Seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's X-11 procedure. District and the national unemployment rates have Note: Shaded bars represent recessions. Some data reflect revised inputs, reestimation, and new statewide controls. For more information, see increased by 3.4 percentage points and 3.3 percent- http://www.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm. age points, respectively. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. There are substantial differences in unemployment rates across counties in the Fourth District. Of the 169 counties that make up the District, 41 had County Unemployment Rates an unemployment rate below the national rate in U.S. unemployment rate = 8.1% February, and 128 counties had a higher rate. There were 69 counties in the District reporting double- digit unemployment rates, and 70 percent of those were in Ohio. Rural Appalachian counties continue to experience higher levels of unemployment, as do counties along the Ohio-Michigan border. More recently, counties on the Ohio side of the Ohio- Pennsylvania border have seen spikes in unemploy- 6.0% - 6.5% ment rates. Outside of Pennsylvania, lower levels of 6.6% - 7.5% unemployment are limited to the interior of Ohio 7.6% - 8.5% 8.6% - 9.5% or the Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati corridor. 9.6% - 10.5% The distribution of unemployment rates among 10.6% - 14.6% Fourth District counties ranges from 6.0 percent to Note: Data are seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's 14.6 percent, with a median county unemployment X-11 procedure. rate of 9.5 percent. Counties in Fourth District Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Pennsylvania generally populate the lower half of the distribution, while the few Fourth District counties in West Virginia moved to the middle of the distribution. Fourth District Kentucky and Ohio counties continue to dominate the upper half of the distribution. These county-level patterns are Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 27 County Unemployment Rates reflected in statewide unemployment rates, as Ohio Percent and Kentucky have unemployment rates of 9.4 15 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, compared to Ohio Pennsylvania Pennsylvania's 7.5 percent and West Virginia's 6.0 14 Kentucky West Virginia 13 percent. 12 Median unemployment rate = 9.5% 11 Current unemployment rates vary more across 10 Fourth District metropolitan statistical areas 9 8 (MSAs) than they did only a year ago. Statewide 7 unemployment trends are evident at the MSA level, 6 as MSAs in Fourth District Pennsylvania posted 5 4 low levels of unemployment even with Erie's heavy 3 allocation of labor in the manufacturing sector. County Lexington's unemployment rate is also rather low Note: Data are seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's X-11 procedure. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. despite employing a similar percentage of work- ers in manufacturing as Akron, Cleveland, and Dayton. Such differences in unemployment rates MSA Unemployment Rates are likely due to the particular composition of the February 2008 February 2009 Manufacturing employment unemployment unemployment as a total percent of total manufacturing industries in the MSAs. For in- rate (percent) rate (percent) employment (2007) stance, those MSAs with less exposure to the auto Akron 5.1 8.8 13.7 industry have experienced lower levels of unem- Canton 5.6 9.5 17.8 ployment than those that depend heavily on the Cincinnati 4.9 8.4 11.6 auto industry for employment. Cleveland 6.1 8.7 13.3 Columbus 4.5 7.4 8.1 Dayton 5.6 10.7 12.9 Toledo 6.5 11.4 14.7 Youngstown 6.3 11.7 15.2 Lexington 4.2 7.1 13.7 Erie 5.4 7.4 18.2 Pittsburgh 4.8 6.6 8.8 Note: Data are seasonally adjusted using the Census Bureau's X-11 procedure. Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economic Trends is published by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Views stated in Economic Trends are those of individuals in the Research Department and not necessarily those of the Fed- eral Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Materials may be reprinted provided that the source is credited. If you'd like to subscribe to a free e-mail service that tells you when Trends is updated, please send an empty email mes- sage to firstname.lastname@example.com. No commands in either the subject header or message body are required. ISSN 0748-2922 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Trends | April 2009 28
Pages to are hidden for
"In This Issue"Please download to view full document


text:
Listen to Roseanna
Overcome Fears & Phobias
Overcome Fear of the Dark
Craving Buster
Whether your cravings are caused by emotional issues or they are just simply habit, this hypnosis mp3 download will help you -
Do you never want to go on another diet again? Time for a different approach...
£ 12.95
Make exercise FUN with this great recording! Get moving, get healthy and get fit easily as you learn to ENJOY exercise...
If you are new to hypnosis and would
like to try before you buy, please grab
yourself a free hypnosis download
... and please tell your friends
about it too!
I had the good fortune to meet Roseanna Leaton in the early part of 2006 at Royal Lytham Golf Club where she was working...
"My previous purchases, Winning, Putting and Short Game, have helped get me from a 14 handicap to an 8. My goal is 5 or less,...

subset: commoncrawl


text:
Soy Griddle Cakes
2 Feb 2011
|Sifted all purpose flour
|1 3⁄4 Cup (28 tbs)
|Soy flour
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs), sifted
|Baking powder
|5 Teaspoon
|Granulated sugar
|2 Teaspoon
|1⁄2 Teaspoon
|2 , beaten
|1 3⁄4 Cup (28 tbs)
|Melted butter/Margarine/fat/salad oil
|2 Tablespoon
Sift together first 5 ingredients.
Combine eggs, milk,- and melted butter, add to dry ingredients all at once, beating smooth with a spoon or electric beater.
Drop batter by 1/4 cupfuls onto a hot griddle, greased or not according to manufacturer's directions.
Spread cakes out lightly with the back of a spoon.
Cook on one side until puffed, full of bubbles, and cooked on the edges.
Then cook on other side.
Rate It
0 Comments
Soy Griddle Cakes Recipe


text:
In all, 379 companies say marriage bans create logistical and economic problems
Some of the biggest media companies in the US on Friday urged the US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage when it considers cases from four states next month.
More than 300 companies including Apple, Google, Amazon, Disney and Facebook signed an Amicus (friend of the court) brief which points out that marriage bans hurt businesses because they create many economic and logistical hurdles.
GSN celebrates May the 4th, also known as Star Wars Day, by asking if we can expect to finally see an openly gay character in the new JJ Abrams-directed Star Wars movies
If you're looking for LGBTI content in the Star Wars univers created by George Lukas you're going to find pretty slim pickings.
Considering the first film, Star Wars: A New Hope, was released in 1977 when homosexuality was still illegal in most parts of the United States and was largely intended for children there's no surprises there were any gay themes in that film – or its 1980 and 1983 sequels.
Australia's Governor-General Quentin Bryce has spoken out about the high rate of suicide among LGBTI young Australians just days after she made her support for same-sex marriage known
Australian Governor-General Quentin Bryce has launched an online resource for LGBTI people by Australia's national anti-depression initiative BeyondBlue, speaking of her concern about the high rate of suicide among LGBTI young people.
Bryce launched the Families Like Mine e-book and website in Melbourne earlier today, noting that young LGBTI Australians were 6 times more likely to commit suicide than other Australians.
US evangelist chooses the worst possible picture for his book cover on rearing children, advising you cannot raise them without a paddle
When an anti-gay evangelist was looking for a perfect family photo on the cover of his new fundamentalist child-rearing book, he clearly did not do his research.
Doug Sehorne got a nasty shock when he realized the image he had chosen for his e-book, 'Bible Principles of Child Discipline from the Book of Proverbs' was, in fact, a picture of a famous family.
The Dunphys from Modern Family, a show he now realizes is 'wicked' because it involves a 'gay couple'.
Classic novels from the 19th century, including Wuthering Heights and Jane Eyre, will have 'missing' sexy scenes added
Sherlock Holmes will have a gay affair with his crime busting sidekick Dr Watson in a new erotic version of the classic tale.
Fans of the super sleuth have long speculated as to whether the relationship between the world famous detectives was more than just a beautiful bromance.
Now publishers Total-E-Bound are planning to solve this mystery with a raunchy edition of Sir Author Conan Doyle's best-selling story.
Never miss a story! Get your free daily newsletter
You are missing some Flash content that should appear here! Perhaps your browser cannot display it, or maybe it did not initialize correctly.


text:
Wednesday, June 6, 2007
© Copyright 2015 Gwinnett Daily Post
NEW YORK - Billionaire investor Ron Burkle is working with a union representing workers at Dow Jones & Co. to explore alternatives to Rupert Murdoch's $5 billion bid for the company, which publishes The Wall Street Journal.The Independent Association of Publishers' Employees said in a statement Tuesday that it had reached out to Burkle, as well as the billionaire investor Warren Buffett and others, in an attempt to find other potential buyers for Dow Jones. The union strongly opposes Murdoch's bid, saying he might slant the Journal's coverage to suit his business interests. Burkle, who made a fortune investing in supermarket chains, recently lost out on a joint bid for Tribune Co. with fellow investor Eli Broad, and also worked with newspaper unions on failed bids for Knight Ridder Inc. and for The Philadelphia Inquirer and Philadelphia Daily News. After initially rebuffing Murdoch's offer in early May, Dow Jones' controlling shareholders, the Bancroft family, held an initial meeting with Murdoch and several of his senior executives Monday to discuss his interest in Dow Jones. IAPE, which represents about a quarter of Dow Jones employees, said it hoped the Bancrofts would decide not to sell the company, but that if they did, that they would consider alternatives to Murdoch. Both Murdoch and a family representative said the talks Monday were ''constructive,'' but neither provided any further detail and it was unclear when any follow-up conversations might occur. The Bancroft family has said it is ''resolute'' in its commitment to protect the Journal's independence and integrity. In addition to the union, former Dow Jones Chairman and Chief Executive Peter Kann has expressed opposition to Murdoch's bid, as has former board member Jim Ottaway Jr., who controls 5 percent of the company's shareholder vote. The Journal ran a lengthy story on its front page Tuesday saying that Murdoch's media properties have made coverage decisions that advanced the interests of his media conglomerate, News Corp., blurring the line between the business and news sides of the company. A News Corp. spokesman declined to comment on Burkle's decision to work with the Dow Jones union. News Corp. has said any concerns about Murdoch meddling with the Journal's news coverage are unwarranted.
More like this story
- GE, Pearson bow out of Dow Jones talks ( June 22, 2007 )
- Dow Jones family clears way for sale ( June 2, 2007 )
- News Corp. board approves deal to buy Dow Jones for $4B ( August 1, 2007 )
- Murdoch installs new CEO, publisher at Dow Jones ( December 8, 2007 )
- Dow Jones & Co. agrees to $5B buyout offer ( August 2, 2007 )


text:
Share your experiences with the Hustle for Haven/IA East 5K Run/Walk below Back to event details page.
I ran in this event last year, and it was great. I loved the shirt I received, and the people were fun and friendly. This was my first, but not my last, 5k!
i think i like walk ,but i have no experience~
i worked in zhengzhou,my company is major on mining crushing and grinding equipment.the most popular product in our company is cone crusher and cone crusher for sale and sand making machine.other wise we have other production line ,such as ,Antimony Processing Equipment(Antimony Processing Equipment beneficiation methods is very much there , re-election , hand-selected and other beneficiation methods. No matter what is the use of the beneficiation process , antimony ore requires crushing and grinding crushing and other sectors .),Hydrated Lime Manufacturing Process
|gypsum block production line and i wish our company will be more and more popular.
ACTIVE is the leader in online event registrations from 5k running races and marathons to softball leagues and local events. ACTIVE also makes it easy to learn and prepare for all the things you love to do with expert resources, training plans and fitness calculators.


text:
Welcome to Festo South Africa
Pneumatic and electric drive technology from Festo is a byword for innovation and maximum productivity in industrial and process automation – from single products to the turnkey solutions. For the success of your business.
Contact us:
Trends in automation
Discover how the balancing act of delivering high-speed motion processes is achieved whist also maintaining flexibility and higher quality.
2015 Didactic course planner now available!
Sign up for today for hands on technology seminars.
Improve your skills and boost your productivity.
Festive period trading days
Quick links
BBBEEFesto's BBBEE activities
Festo Social Media links


text:
VIDEO: Kim & Kourtney Kardashian Talk Kris Humphries on LETTERMAN
Reality television star Kim Kardashian speaks frankly about the issues surrounding her impending divorce from Brooklyn Nets star Kris Humphries when she and her sister Kourtney visit the LATE SHOW with DAVID LETTERMAN, Wednesday, Jan. 16. Check out a clip below!
Kardashian, who is currently dating music superstar Kanye West and is also pregnant with their first child, due in July, married Humphries in a lavish ceremony in August 2011, but she filed for divorce 72 days later. Kardashian explained the current status of the separation to Letterman.
Also visiting the LATE SHOW tonight are legendary blues musician Buddy Guy, who, like Letterman, was an honoree at "The 35th Annual Kennedy Center Honors" in December.
The Late Show with David Letterman is a production of Worldwide Pants Incorporated. Barbara Gaines, Matt Roberts, Jude Brennan, Maria Pope, Eric Stangel, Justin Stangel and Rob Burnett are the executive producers.
About Author
- CNBC to Air THE MAKING OF DIG, the USA Network Event Series, 3/1
- NBC to Air One-Hour Season Finale of CHRISTINA MILIAN TURNED UP, 3/1
- NBC Universo to Present ROMEO SANTOS DESDE VINA Concert Exclusive, 3/1
- Kelly Clarkson to Visit CBS SUNDAY MORNING, 3/1
- VIDEO: Clark Gregg Teases New AGENTS OF S.H.I.E.L.D. Season Using Emojis
- Dakota Johnson to Host SNL Tonight; Alabama Shakes to Perform
- NBC Sports to Air Coverage of U.S. GRAND PRIX FROM PARK CITY
- Discovery Family to Premiere New Episodes of TRANSFORMERS RESCUE BOTS, Today
- Telemundo to Present FUTBOL ESTELAR: LEON VS SANTOS, Today
- Telemundo to Give Viewers Sneak Peek at Upcoming Programming on LO NUEVO, Today


text:
Vermont Cheddar Cheese Pie
|Fine dry bread crumbs
|1⁄3 Cup (5.33 tbs) (plain)
|Parmesan cheese
|1⁄4 Cup (4 tbs)
|Cream cheese
|32 Ounce (4 packages, 8-ounce each)
|Egg yolks
|Heavy cream
|1⁄3 Cup (5.33 tbs)
|All purpose flour
|1⁄4 Cup (4 tbs)
|2 Clove (10 gm), minced
|Yellow onion
|1 , grated
|Grated cheddar cheese
|3 Cup (48 tbs)
|Minced parsley
|1 Tablespoon
|Chopped fresh basil leaves/1/2 teaspoon dried
|1 Teaspoon
|Dried tarragon
|1⁄4 Teaspoon
|Chopped fresh dill/1 teaspoon dried
|1 Teaspoon
|1⁄3 Cup (5.33 tbs)
Preheat the oven to 250°.
Wrap the outside of a 10-inch spring-form pan in aluminum foil.
Butter the bottom and sides of the pan and sprinkle with bread crumbs and Parmesan cheese.
In a large bowl beat together the cream cheese, eggs, yolks, cream and flour until well mixed.
Fold in the garlic, onion, Cheddar cheese and herbs.
Add the beer, mixing just until blended.
Pour the filling into the spring-form pan.
Prepare a bain marie by placing the spring-form pan in a larger pan.
Add enough boiling water to come halfway up the sides of the springform pan.
Bake the pie for 1 hour and 40 minutes.
Turn the oven off and leave the pie for 1 hour.
The pie is done when the top is light brown and the center is firm, determined by shaking it from side to side.
Remove the pie from the oven and let it cool for 2 hours.
Remove the foil from the pan and discard it.
Cut the pie into wedges to serve.


text:
NHL Playoff roundup: Blues beat Blackhawks 4-3 in OT thriller
NHL Playoff roundup: Blues beat Blackhawks 4-3 in OT thriller
PITTSBURGH — Matt Calvert banged home a rebound 1:10 into the second overtime and the Columbus Blue Jackets earned the first playoff victory in franchise history with a 4-3 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night.
Pittsburgh's Marc-Andre Fleury stuffed the initial shot by Cam Atkinson but Calvert stood all alone at the left post and wristed a shot into the open net to even the Eastern Conference quarterfinals at one game each.
Game 3 is Monday in Columbus.
|The article you requested is no longer available on BostonHerald.com.


text:
Out of Stock This product is no longer available and cannot be added to your cart. We apologize for this inconvenience
Holman Bible Atlas
By: Thomas Brisco
B&H Books / 1998 / Hardcover
$19.99 (CBD Price)|
Save 33% ($9.98)
Buy 10 or more for $18.99 each.
Availability: No longer available.
Email me when this product is available.
Email me when this product is available.
CBD Stock No: WW97095
Refine by
- Audience▼▲
- Binding▼▲
- Language▼▲
- Series▼▲
- Author / Artist▼▲
- Publisher▼▲
- Top Rated▼▲
- Price▼▲
- Discount▼▲
Advanced Search Links
This item has been replaced by 497601
Product Description
Explore the world of the Bible through this visual feast and increase your knowledge of God's Word! This atlas features hundreds of color photos and maps that show you the land, sites, and archaeology of the entire biblical world. You'll learn about every time period from the Patriarchs to A.D. 300, and every international power from Egypt to Rome. 256 pages, hardcover.
Product Information
|Format: Hardcover
Number of Pages: 256
Vendor: B&H Books
Publication Date: 1998
|Dimensions: 11.25 X 8.75 X 1.0 (inches)
Availability: No longer available.
Email me when this product is available.
Related Products
Holman Book of Biblical Charts, Maps, and ReconstructionsMarsha A. Ellis SmithB&H Books / 1994 / Hardcover$11.99 Retail:4 Stars Out Of 5 9 Reviews
$17.99Save 33% ($6.00)Availability: In StockCBD Stock No: WW46911
A Guide to Biblical Sites in Greece and TurkeyClyde E. Fant, Mitchell G. ReddishOxford University Press / Trade Paperback$21.99 Retail:
$29.99Save 27% ($8.00)Availability: In StockCBD Stock No: WW139186
Boyd's Bible DictionaryJames BoydB&H Books / 1989 / Trade Paperback$5.99 Retail:
$6.99Save 14% ($1.00)Availability: In StockCBD Stock No: WW9810874
Then and Now Bible Maps InsertRose Publishing / 2008 / Trade Paperback$9.99 Retail:4.5 Stars Out Of 5 39 Reviews
$16.99Save 41% ($7.00)Availability: In StockCBD Stock No: WW362932
Publisher's Description
The Holman Bible Atlas offers a visual feast through which the reader can explore the world of the Bible. Utilizing 140 full color maps key to biblical events and 140 full color photographs illustrating the land, sites, and archaeology of the biblical world, the Atlas draws the reader into the biblical story. The Holman Bible Atlas begins with an introduction to the geography of the biblical world emphasizing the major physical features of the Ancient Near East with special attention given to the geographical regions of Palestine. Information about daily life and the role of archaeology in recovering ancient cultures are discussed.
Author Bio
Thomas V. Brisco is Provost and Chief Academic Officer, Hardin-Simmons University. He also serves as Professor of Old Testament and Archaeology. Dr. Brisco came to Hardin-Simmons from Baylor University where he taught in the Department of Religion. Prior to that, Dr. Brisco taught for 21 years at Southwestern Baptist Theological Seminary, serving also as the Associate Dean for the Doctor of Philosophy Program. Dr. Brisco specializes in ancient near eastern history and archaeology particularly as these subjects relate to the historical, cultural, and geographical setting of the Bible. His archaeological field experience includes work at Tel Aphek and Tel Batash in Israel. An ordained minister with pastoral experience, Dr. Brisco has served as interim pastor in over 20 churches in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, and Switzerland.
Product Reviews
of customers would recommend this product to a friend.
Steven ThorntonSavannah, GAAge: 55-65Gender: male1 Stars Out Of 5No Page Number Atlas is UselessJuly 29, 2013Steven ThorntonSavannah, GAAge: 55-65Gender: maleQuality: 3Value: 1Meets Expectations: 1This atlas is virtually useless. While the product is very well created and laid out, and the index in the back lists page numbers for all items, THERE ARE NO PAGE NUMBERS ON THE PAGES. This makes the atlas almost unusable. I was very disappointed in this product. I went on the virtual view and it is the same way. I went to the store that carries these and they are all the same.
robilo12Tracadie, NB Canada5 Stars Out Of 5May 9, 2012robilo12Tracadie, NB CanadaQuality: 5Value: 5Meets Expectations: 5Very interesting book with lots of pictures and interesting facts and history.
Big DMODESTO CAAge: 55-65Gender: male5 Stars Out Of 5January 14, 2012Big DMODESTO CAAge: 55-65Gender: maleQuality: 5Value: 5Meets Expectations: 5I brought this for a friend who is new to the Bible. It helps him to see where events took place.
Siervo5 Stars Out Of 5Recommend this book, it is accurate & ResponsibleFebruary 2, 2011SiervoQuality: 5Value: 5Meets Expectations: 5This book makes the Bible become alive in a different way as if one were reading it alone. Graphics, maps, and explanations are superb and render proper reverence to the Bible. This book is a must have for the serious bible student at any level.
Richard Briney5 Stars Out Of 5December 15, 2008Richard BrineyOur biggest concern with the Atlas is that in the back under Index of Maps when a page is indicated for a map of a town,there is no map on the page noted. I had hoped to get an Atlas that would give me a map for every location noted in Scripture. Otherwise it is a very informative Atlas.
Ask Christianbook
Have a question about this product? Ask us here.


text:
Thanks for redeeming.{{else}}
Success! Thanks for repurchasing.{{/if}} {{else}} {{#if Expired}}
Increase my visibility!{{else}} {{#if IsMultiPack}}
{{#if HasMultiPack}} You have {{MultiPackCount}} top spot(s) left. Now loading you into the search listings... {{else}} You have used all top spots. Now loading you into the search listings... {{/if}}{{else}}
We are loading you into the search listing pages...{{/if}} {{/if}} {{/if}} {{/if}}
{{Current}} just saw you!{{/if}} {{#if LastTopSpotPurchaseIsMulti }} {{#if HasAnyTopSpot}}
{{#if HasFreeTopSpot }} {{ UnclaimedTopSpotFree }} Free {{/if}} {{#if HasPaidTopSpot }} {{#if HasFreeTopSpot }} & {{/if}} {{ MultiPackCount }} {{/if}} Top Spot{{#if Plural}}s{{/if}} Left{{else}}
0 Top Spot{{#if Plural}}s{{/if}} Left{{/if}} {{else}} {{#if HasFreeTopSpot }}
{{ UnclaimedTopSpotFree }} Top Spot{{#if Plural}}s{{/if}} Left{{/if}} {{/if}} {{else}} {{#if HasResults}}
{{Current}} see you now!{{else}} {{/if}} {{/if}}
You can now invite anyone to meet at your favorite Starbucks.
Limited-time feature
64 year old woman | Uniontown, OH, USA | Seeking men 48-64 within 100 miles
Just right
It's a new dawn, a new day, and I'm excited by the prospect of finding someone special to share this New Year with. When I asked my friends what they thought was my best personality attribute, they all said that I am a bubbly, friendly, fun person who loves to laughs. I have to agree with them—I do love to laugh and have fun! I would also have to add that I love spontaneity. I don't always need a plan. Last minute plans or a change of plans can often be a welcome adventure. Although I do love to laugh and have fun, I also know when to be serious. I'm a sensible, down to earth person who is not pretentious. I am very conscientious and responsible and proud of my personal and professional accomplishments. I don't need someone to "take care" of me—I'm just looking for someone to compliment and enhance my life. I enjoy traveling, sporting events (huge Cleveland Indians fan), an occasional trip to Mountaineer, dancing, and dining out at nice restaurants, but I also love those normal, everyday moments. A good cup of coffee in the morning while sitting on the deck, a home cooked meal, an evening of television, or a glass of wine by the fireplace has the potential for being a special event. Sometimes the quiet times are the best times. I'm not someone who likes conflict, but I do feel it's OK to disagree to end up agreeing. Communication is a good thing—I can't fix it if I'm not aware of it. I know how to admit my wrongs and how to say I'm sorry. My family and friends mean the world to me, and I'm committed and devoted to fostering those relationships. I enjoy entertaining—family barbeques, holiday dinners, or an evening of drinks, pizza and cards are some of my favorite things. I love to bake pies, cakes, and pastries. My pineapple squares are my family's favorite, and I make the best whipped cream frosting. I'm not perfect—I'm normal! So, if you're looking for a good person with a good heart and want to begin a new year with someone special—then you're the one I'm looking for.
Coffee and conversation , Cooking , Dining out , Movies/Videos , Music and concerts , Nightclubs/Dancing , Playing cards , Travel/Sightseeing , Watching sports
Baseball, Basketball, Bowling, Dancing, Football, Hockey, Swimming
I exercise 1-2 times per week.
I like Dogs
Middle of the Road
Z{{Cta}} {{#if HasMoreInfo}} ?{{CtaSecondary}} {{/if}}
|What she is looking for
|5'5" (165cms)
|5'9" (175cms) to 6'4" (193cms)
|Body type:
|No preference
|No preference
|Dark brown
|No preference
|No Way
|No preference
|Social Drinker
|Other profession
|No preference
|$75,001 to $100,000
|No preference
|Widow / Widower, Divorced
|Have kids:
|Yes, and they live away from home (1)
|No preference
|Wants kids:
|White / Caucasian
|No preference
|Christian / Catholic
|No preference
My faith is very important to me, but I would never push my faith upon someone else. I believe it is an individual choice as to what each of us believe.
|No preference
|High school
|No preference


text:
Timothy Anderson George
Position: WR
Height: 6-5 Weight: 225 lbs.
Born: October 4, 1951 in Alcoa, TN
High School: Alcoa
College: Carson-Newman
Drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals in the 3rd round (68th overall) of the 1973 NFL Draft.
Weighted Career AV (100-95-...): 0 (14747th overall since 1950)
Promote your website or business by sponsoring this page for $5 on Pro-Football-Reference.com. Your message will replace this ad.
Output includes all games from 1920 to 2014.


text:
European high-yield bond market hits its stride
They used to be called junk bonds, but that moniker is less common now. Given record low rates, high-yield bond doesn't seem quite right either. Whatever name you use, the subject is companies raising finance by issuing bonds of less than investment grade – higher risk, therefore somewhat higher yield – and bankers are unanimous that there has finally been a fundamental and permanent change in the European market after a couple of false dawns.
Become a financial news subscriber
Contact our Licensing team to discuss corporate subscription options on:
+44 (0) 20 7572 3499
Breaking news
Get exclusive access to breakng news, analysis and comment on the wholesale financial industry.
Join 37,000 subscriber including your clients, competitors and business partners
On the go
Available online, in print, and on mobile for access wherever and whenever you need it.
Provides in-depth analysis and context so that you benefit from an unique view of the entire wholesale financial industry.


text:
What the latest DVD you picked up (every one)?
View Single Post
Infant Schmoe
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Hempstead, NY
Posts: 9
I got 89 dvds total and my most recent purchases were kick ass super deals. "Night of the Living Dead," (original) for only $5 at K-Mart. It has a great transfer for what the price and packaging, nothing special on it, but hey, $5 is worth it. Also got "Idle Hands" for $9.99 at K-mart also. I thought the movie was okay. Reason I got it was for the features. It has a commentary track that includes Seth Green, which has to be funny as hell. And I picked up "A Knight's Tale" for $16.99 at Best Buy (greatest store on earth). Advice for people who don't know: Go out a buy your new release dvds at Best Buy the first week, 'cuz they have the greatest prices. Also check at your local K-mart for kick-ass deals.
View Public Profile
Visit vaio_26's homepage!
Find all posts by vaio_26


text:
Will it be installed on existing OS or hardware?
What's the difference between Hypervisor and virtualbox? I know I can install virtualbox on my windows xp and then install a couple of VMS with linux or windows on it.
Will it be installed on existing OS or hardware?
What's the difference between Hypervisor and virtualbox? I know I can install virtualbox on my windows xp and then install a couple of VMS with linux or windows on it.
closed as not a real question by David Schwartz, Chris Gerken, Stefan Gehrig, Jan Hančič, Bobrovsky Nov 26 '12 at 13:15
It's difficult to tell what is being asked here. This question is ambiguous, vague, incomplete, overly broad, or rhetorical and cannot be reasonably answered in its current form. For help clarifying this question so that it can be reopened, visit the help center. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.
As explained in the fine wikipedia article, Xen is a bare-metal hypervisor, meaning it runs directly on the hardware.
However, as Xen itself has no user interface, it always requires at least one installed guest OS to work. There must be one OS guest that runs with special privileges (the so-called "dom0"). This dom0 is used to manage Xen, and so has a similar role to the host OS on a hosted hypervisor. So, while technically speaking Xen runs directly on your hardware, in practice you will still install an OS, then install Xen from inside the OS, just like for a hosted solution. However, you will then have to reboot into Xen (which will boot the dom0 OS).
Hypervisor is the general term, and both Xen and VirtualBox are implementations of hypervisors.
Yes, you can do the same with Xen (though support for Windows guests seems to be more limited than with VirtualBox).
Full virtualisation is difficult to achieve (e.g.: virtualbox) and is slow, because you should create an exact copy of the underlying hardware, and difficult to recover from hardware errors.
Paravirtualisation (xen hypervisor) provides the machine hardware, but sitll manages it. And Operating System, that will be installed as VM should have some modifications.
Xen still needs some OS to manage resources of the VMs, so it will not be installed on hardware only. Citrix Zen Server for example uses CentOS5 (which is quite outdated, by the way).
The paravirtualisation approach is good for Cloud computing because of the ability to effectively run multiple VMs on a number of different machines and scale.
I suggest you to read an article called "Above the Clouds".


text:
Originally written on Fox Sports North | Last updated 11/20/12
MINNEAPOLIS The Minnesota Twins added eight players to their major league roster, meaning the team now has filled all 40 spots on the 40-man roster. Among the biggest names added to the major league roster are outfielder Aaron Hicks and right-hander Kyle Gibson. Hicks was the Twins' first-round pick (14th overall) in the 2008 draft. He spent the 2012 season with Double-A New Britain and hit .286 with 61 RBI and 13 home runs in 129 games. Gibson, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2009, missed almost all of the 2012 season after having Tommy John surgery on his right elbow late in 2011. He appeared in just two games with Triple-A Rochester in 2012 and allowed seven runs in 6 23 innings. Gibson recently pitched in the Arizona Fall League, going 3-2 with a 5.40 ERA in six starts for the Peoria Javelinas. The other six players added to the Twins' 40-man roster are right-handed pitchers B.J. Hermsen, Michael Tonkin and Tim Wood, left-hander Caleb Thielbar, catcher Josmil Pinto and infielde...
Comments are closed.
What do you think?To leave a comment, you can:
MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!
Follow us on Twitter
|Best of Yardbarker
|NFL News
|MLB News
Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers
Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.
Company Info
What is Yardbarker?
Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.
|© 2015 Yardbarker, Inc. All rights reserved. Use of this website (including any and all parts and components) constitutes your acceptance of these Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. (What's New?)


text:
Tramontina LYON Stovetop Pepper Jack Cornbread - Instructions
This recipe is for the Tramontina LYON 5-quart Dutch Oven. Makes 8 to 10 servings Prep Time: 30 minutes Total Time: 1-1/4 hours 1. Prepare onion and peppers. Set aside to cool. 2. In a mixing bowl, cream together butter, sugar and salt. 3. Add egg. 4. Add milk.
Tramontina LYON Stovetop Pepper Jack Cornbread - Instructions Continued
5. Stir in flour, cornmeal and baking powder. 6. Fold in onion, peppers and shredded cheese. 7. Spoon batter into LYON 5-quart Dutch Oven and cover with lid. 8. Place on a low-medium burner. 9. Bake on top of the stove for 35 minutes. A toothpick inserted into the center ofthe cornbread should come out clean.


text:
Developments to be considered at planning meeting
Posted: September 01, 2014|
A MEETING of East Staffordshire Borough Council's planning committee will take place next Monday.
Various applications will be considered for approval, including one for a proposed sports pavillion in Clay Lane, Branston, and plans for two blocks of four terraced homes in Addie Road, Burton.
Also up for consideration will be plans for a 500-home development at Glenville Farm, in Tutbury Road, and a solar farm at Rolleston Park Farm, in Tutbury.
The meeting will take place at 2pm in the Coltman VC Room of The Maltsters, in Wetmore Road, Burton. Members of the public are welcome to attend and can obtain an agenda by calling 01283 508608 or emailing monica.henchcliffe@ eaststaffsbc.gov.uk


text:
Sell Online
Lakaye provides beautiful themes for your online store, allowing you to boost sales and customer satisfaction. Our themes are designed to look good on smartphones, tablets and beyond. No coding necessary.
WooCommerce is a feature-rich Ecommerce extension for WordPress, the world's premier Web software that is used to build and manage beautiful websites. WooCommerce powers over 17.77% of the of the world's Ecommerce stores. That's over 380,000 stores.


text: Bayfront Stadium UWF Football Gets Closer To Playing Downtown By Dave Dunwoody • Aug 11, 2014 University of West Florida Two years before its inaugural season, University of West Florida football's first major scrimmage was held Friday at Pensacola City Hall. The Argonauts are working to create a temporary home downtown. Meeting in special session, the Community Maritime Park Associates Board went over a proposed agreement for the team to play at Bayfront Stadium beginning in 2016. The two-year deal – plus three, one-year renewals if desired – would pay the city $5,000 per game. Ben Lively K's 8 In His First Start For The Blue Wahoos By Bob Barrett • Jun 23, 2014 Pensacola Blue Wahoos UPDATE: Ben Lively lasted 3 2/3 innings for the Blue Wahoos Monday evening as Huntsville beat Pensacola 6-2. Lively took the loss. He gave up 3 runs, struck out 8 batters, walked 5 and hit one with a pitch. His 8 strike-out performance is a new team record for a Blue Wahoos pitcher's first start. He leads the Cincinnati Reds organization with 103 total strikeouts on the year and is second overall in all of minor league baseball. -----------------------------------------------


text:
- Get technical support for this product
Yahoo! SiteBuilder For Dummies
333 pages
September 2005
US $24.99 Add to Cart
Read an ExcerptDownload Acrobat
Table of Contents
Author Information
Richard Wagner is an experienced author of over 16 technical books, including WordPerfect 12 For Dummies, XSLT For Dummies, and XML All-in-One Desk Reference For Dummies. He is also former V.P. of Product Development at NetObjects and inventor of the award-winning NetObjects ScriptBuilder. In his non-tech life, Richard is author of Christianity For Dummies.
- Get technical support for this product