text:
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Carbon capture retrofits and the cost of regulatory uncertainty
SciTech Connect (OSTI)
Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm's ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.
Reinelt, P.S.; Keith, D.W. [SUNY College of Fredonia, Fredonia, NY (United States). Dept. of Economics
Quantification of uncertainty in reservoir simulations influenced by varying input geological parameters, Maria Reservoir, CaHu Field
E-Print Network [OSTI]
QUANTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTY IN RESERVOIR SIMULATIONS INFLUENCED BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate... BY VARYING INPUT GEOLOGICAL PARAMETERS, MARIA RESERVOIR, CAHU FIELD A Thesis by KARINE CHRYSTEL SCHEPERS Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree...
Schepers, Karine Chrystel
Assessing Fatigue and Ultimate Load Uncertainty in Floating Offshore Wind Turbines Due to Varying Simulation Length
With the push towards siting wind turbines farther offshore due to higher wind quality and less visibility, floating offshore wind turbines, which can be located in deep water, are becoming an economically attractive option. The International Electrotechnical Commission's (IEC) 61400-3 design standard covers fixed-bottom offshore wind turbines, but there are a number of new research questions that need to be answered to modify these standards so that they are applicable to floating wind turbines. One issue is the appropriate simulation length needed for floating turbines. This paper will discuss the results from a study assessing the impact of simulation length on the ultimate and fatigue loads of the structure, and will address uncertainties associated with changing the simulation length for the analyzed floating platform. Recommendations of required simulation length based on load uncertainty will be made and compared to current simulation length requirements.
Stewart, G.; Lackner, M.; Haid, L.; Matha, D.; Jonkman, J.; Robertson, A.
Uncertainty analysis
An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software.
Thomas, R.E.
Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty
NVLAP Assessor Training Measurement Uncertainty #12;Assessor Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 3 Measurement Uncertainty ·Calibration and testing labs performing Training 2009: Measurement Uncertainty 4 Measurement Uncertainty ·When the nature of the test precludes
Regulatory Tools
Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatoryRegulatory Response
Varying constants quantum cosmology
We discuss minisuperspace models within the framework of varying physical constants theories including $\\Lambda$-term. In particular, we consider the varying speed of light (VSL) theory and varying gravitational constant theory (VG) using the specific ans\\"atze for the variability of constants: $c(a) = c_0 a^n$ and $G(a)=G_0 a^q$. We find that most of the varying $c$ and $G$ minisuperspace potentials are of the tunneling type which allows to use WKB approximation of quantum mechanics. Using this method we show that the probability of tunneling of the universe "from nothing" ($a=0)$ to a Friedmann geometry with the scale factor $a_t$ is large for growing $c$ models and is strongly suppressed for diminishing $c$ models. As for $G$ varying, the probability of tunneling is large for $G$ diminishing, while it is small for $G$ increasing. In general, both varying $c$ and $G$ change the probability of tunneling in comparison to the standard matter content (cosmological term, dust, radiation) universe models.
Katarzyna Leszczynska; Adam Balcerzak; Mariusz P. Dabrowski
Direct Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty
DOE Data Explorer [Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)]
Understanding sources of uncertainty in aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF), the difference in a given radiative flux component with and without aerosol, is essential to quantifying changes in Earth's radiation budget. We examine the uncertainty in DRF due to measurement uncertainty in the quantities on which it depends: aerosol optical depth, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter, solar geometry, and surface albedo. Direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and at the surface as well as sensitivities, the changes in DRF in response to unit changes in individual aerosol or surface properties, are calculated at three locations representing distinct aerosol types and radiative environments. The uncertainty in DRF associated with a given property is computed as the product of the sensitivity and typical measurement uncertainty in the respective aerosol or surface property. Sensitivity and uncertainty values permit estimation of total uncertainty in calculated DRF and identification of properties that most limit accuracy in estimating forcing. Total uncertainties in modeled local diurnally averaged forcing range from 0.2 to 1.3 W m-2 (42 to 20%) depending on location (from tropical to polar sites), solar zenith angle, surface reflectance, aerosol type, and aerosol optical depth. The largest contributor to total uncertainty in DRF is usually single scattering albedo; however decreasing measurement uncertainties for any property would increase accuracy in DRF. Comparison of two radiative transfer models suggests the contribution of modeling error is small compared to the total uncertainty although comparable to uncertainty arising from some individual properties.
Mccomiskey, Allison
Regulatory Models and the Environment: Practice, Pitfalls, and Prospects
Computational models support environmental regulatory activities by providing the regulator an ability to evaluate available knowledge, assess alternative regulations, and provide a framework to assess compliance. But all models face inherent uncertainties, because human and natural systems are always more complex and heterogeneous than can be captured in a model. Here we provide a summary discussion of the activities, findings, and recommendations of the National Research Council's Committee on Regulatory Environmental Models, a committee funded by the US Environmental Protection Agency to provide guidance on the use of computational models in the regulatory process. Modeling is a difficult enterprise even outside of the potentially adversarial regulatory environment. The demands grow when the regulatory requirements for accountability, transparency, public accessibility, and technical rigor are added to the challenges. Moreover, models cannot be validated (declared true) but instead should be evaluated with regard to their suitability as tools to address a specific question. The committee concluded that these characteristics make evaluation of a regulatory model more complex than simply comparing measurement data with model results. Evaluation also must balance the need for a model to be accurate with the need for a model to be reproducible, transparent, and useful for the regulatory decision at hand. Meeting these needs requires model evaluation to be applied over the"life cycle" of a regulatory model with an approach that includes different forms of peer review, uncertainty analysis, and extrapolation methods than for non-regulatory models.
Holmes, K. John; Graham, Judith A.; McKone, Thomas; Whipple, Chris
Uncertainties in Gapped Graphene
Motivated by graphene-based quantum computer we examine the time-dependence of the position-momentum and position-velocity uncertainties in the monolayer gapped graphene. The effect of the energy gap to the uncertainties is shown to appear via the Compton-like wavelength $\\lambda_c$. The uncertainties in the graphene are mainly contributed by two phenomena, spreading and zitterbewegung. While the former determines the uncertainties in the long-range of time, the latter gives the highly oscillation to the uncertainties in the short-range of time. The uncertainties in the graphene are compared with the corresponding values for the usual free Hamiltonian $\\hat{H}_{free} = (p_1^2 + p_2^2) / 2 M$. It is shown that the uncertainties can be under control within the quantum mechanical law if one can choose the gap parameter $\\lambda_c$ freely.
Eylee Jung; Kwang S. Kim; DaeKil Park
Long term infrastructure investments under uncertainty in the electric power sector using approximate dynamic programming techniques
A computer model was developed to find optimal long-term investment strategies for the electric power sector under uncertainty with respect to future regulatory regimes and market conditions. The model is based on a ...
Seelhof, Michael
Quantifying uncertainty from material inhomogeneity.
Most engineering materials are inherently inhomogeneous in their processing, internal structure, properties, and performance. Their properties are therefore statistical rather than deterministic. These inhomogeneities manifest across multiple length and time scales, leading to variabilities, i.e. statistical distributions, that are necessary to accurately describe each stage in the process-structure-properties hierarchy, and are ultimately the primary source of uncertainty in performance of the material and component. When localized events are responsible for component failure, or when component dimensions are on the order of microstructural features, this uncertainty is particularly important. For ultra-high reliability applications, the uncertainty is compounded by a lack of data describing the extremely rare events. Hands-on testing alone cannot supply sufficient data for this purpose. To date, there is no robust or coherent method to quantify this uncertainty so that it can be used in a predictive manner at the component length scale. The research presented in this report begins to address this lack of capability through a systematic study of the effects of microstructure on the strain concentration at a hole. To achieve the strain concentration, small circular holes (approximately 100 {micro}m in diameter) were machined into brass tensile specimens using a femto-second laser. The brass was annealed at 450 C, 600 C, and 800 C to produce three hole-to-grain size ratios of approximately 7, 1, and 1/7. Electron backscatter diffraction experiments were used to guide the construction of digital microstructures for finite element simulations of uniaxial tension. Digital image correlation experiments were used to qualitatively validate the numerical simulations. The simulations were performed iteratively to generate statistics describing the distribution of plastic strain at the hole in varying microstructural environments. In both the experiments and simulations, the deformation behavior was found to depend strongly on the character of the nearby microstructure.
Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Boyce, Brad Lee
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT POWER MARKETS The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today ordered its staff to conduct investigators will find out if any technical or operational factors, federal or state regulatory prohibitions
Laughlin, Robert B.
Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems
Managing Uncertainty in Operational Control of Water Distribution Systems A. Bargiela Department. There are system management decisions concerning the regulatory measures such as water pricing principles, effluent in water distribution systems con- cern reservoir(s) management with associated pump scheduling
Bargiela, Andrzej
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 1: Main report
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models.
Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA late health effects models.
Little, M.P.; Muirhead, C.R. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models.
Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Grupa, J.B. [Netherlands Energy Research Foundation (Netherlands)
The importance of covariance in nuclear data uncertainty propagation studies
A study has been undertaken to investigate what proportion of the uncertainty propagated through plutonium critical assembly calculations is due to the covariances between the fission cross section in different neutron energy groups. The uncertainties on k{sub eff} calculated show that the presence of covariances between the cross section in different neutron energy groups accounts for approximately 27-37% of the propagated uncertainty due to the plutonium fission cross section. This study also confirmed the validity of employing the sandwich equation, with associated sensitivity and covariance data, instead of a Monte Carlo sampling approach to calculating uncertainties for linearly varying systems. (authors)
Benstead, J. [AWE Plc, Aldermaston, Berkshire (United Kingdom)
Uncertainty Analysis Economic Evaluations
uncertainties in typical oil and gas projects: 1. The oil price, 2. The investments (capex) and operating 4.1 Oil Prices...............................................................................................14 4.1.1 Analysis of historical oil prices........................................................15
Bhulai, Sandjai
Trajectories without quantum uncertainties
A common knowledge suggests that trajectories of particles in quantum mechanics always have quantum uncertainties. These quantum uncertainties set by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle limit precision of measurements of fields and forces, and ultimately give rise to the standard quantum limit in metrology. With the rapid developments of sensitivity of measurements these limits have been approached in various types of measurements including measurements of fields and acceleration. Here we show that a quantum trajectory of one system measured relatively to the other "reference system" with an effective negative mass can be quantum uncertainty--free. The method crucially relies on the generation of an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen entangled state of two objects, one of which has an effective negative mass. From a practical perspective these ideas open the way towards force and acceleration measurements at new levels of sensitivity far below the standard quantum limit.
Eugene S. Polzik; Klemens Hammerer
Orifice flow measurement uncertainty
A computer program is now available from Union Carbide that evaluates the total flow uncertainty of orifice flowmeter systems. Tolerance values for every component in the system and the sensitivity of the measured flowrate to each component can be established using historical data and published hardware specifications. Knowing the tolerance and sensitivity values, a total measurement uncertainty can be estimated with a 95% confidence level. This computer program provides a powerful design tool to ensure correct component matching and total metering system optimization.
Samples, C.R.
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 1: Main report
This volume is the first of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project conducted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the European Commission to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This document reports on an ongoing project to assess uncertainty in the MACCS and COSYMA calculations for the offsite consequences of radionuclide releases by hypothetical nuclear power plant accidents. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain variables that affect calculations of offsite consequences. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. Other panels were formed to consider uncertainty in other aspects of the codes. Their results are described in companion reports. Volume 1 contains background information and a complete description of the joint consequence uncertainty study. Volume 2 contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures for both panels, (3) the rationales and results for the panels on soil and plant transfer and animal transfer, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Brown, J. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)] [and others
Regulatory Review of the Safety Case for Siting Licensing of Saligny Low and Intermediate Waste Repository
The paper contains the regulatory review comments produced following submission of siting license application of Saligny repository. The regulatory review was conducted in order to verify the compliance with Romanian regulatory criteria and requirements. After assessment of completeness of safety case and availability of supporting documents the review the main technical areas started. The review process was focused on the site characteristics, waste characteristics, safety considerations as scenarios development, mathematical models, identification and treatment of uncertainties, availability of parameters. (authors)
Dogaru, D.M. [National Commission for Nuclear Activities Control, 5 Bucharest (Romania)
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT AND FERC STAFF The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today accepted a settlement, valued at nearly $500 stemming from the 2000-2001 energy crisis in California and other Western states. The global settlement
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT SETTLEMENT BETWEEN DUKE AND COMMISSION STAFF The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today accepted a settlement between the Commission's enforcement staff and Houston-based units of Duke Energy that resolves
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT POWER EXCHANGE MARKET The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a staff settlement calling-2-001 COMMISSION APPROVES $13.8 MILLION SETTLEMENT WITH RELIANT ENERGY OVER PHYSICAL WITHHOLDING IN CALIFORNIA
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today accepted an agreement between Nevada Power and Sierra Pacific. AGREEMENT ACCEPTED BETWEEN ENRON AND NEVADA COMPANIES SETTLING MATTERS STEMMING FROM WESTERN ENERGY CRISIS
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT FERC APPROVES SETTLEMENT WITH RELIANT IN CALIFORNIA CASES; PROCEEDS COULD TOTAL $50 MILLION The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a settlement between the Commission's enforcement staff
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT CRISIS The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved a comprehensive settlement among APX Inc. Coral Power LLC, Puget Sound Energy Inc. and Avista are Supporting Parties. R-07-14 (30) #12;
FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D.C. 20426 NEWS RELEASE NEWS MEDIA CONTACT-95-191 COMMISSION APPROVES TWO WESTERN POWER SETTLEMENTS The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission today approved two markets during the Western energy crisis of 2000-2001. The first case involves a settlement agreement
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives
Phenylpropanoid related regulatory protein-regulatory region associations
DOE Patents [OSTI]
Materials and methods for identifying lignin regulatory region-regulatory protein associations are disclosed. Materials and methods for modulating lignin accumulation are also disclosed.
Apuya, Nestor (Culver City, CA); Bobzin, Steven Craig (Malibu, CA); Park, Joon-Hyun (Oak Park, CA); Doukhanina, Elena (Newbury Park, CA)
The Treatment of ISI Uncertainty in xLPR
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in cooperation with the nuclear industry is constructing an improved probabilistic fracture model for 'extremely Low Probability of Rupture' in the piping of a nuclear power plant called xLPR. This paper focuses on the xLPR model's treatment of uncertainty for in-service inspection. In the xLPR model, uncertainty is classified as either aleatory or epistemic, and both types of uncertainty are described with probability distributions. Earlier PFM models included aleatory, but ignored epistemic, uncertainty, or attempted to deal with epistemic uncertainty by use of conservative bounds. Thus, inclusion of both types of uncertainty in xLPR should produce more realistic results than the earlier models. This work shows that by including epistemic uncertainty in the xLPR ISI module, there can be a significant effect on rupture probability; however, this depends upon the specific scenarios being studied. Some simple scenarios are presented to illustrate those where there is no effect and those having a significant effect on the probability of rupture.
Heasler, Patrick G.; Sanborn, Scott E.; Doctor, Steven R.; Anderson, Michael T.
Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty
11 Optimization Under Generalized Uncertainty Optimization Modeling Math 4794/5794: Spring 2013 Weldon A. Lodwick email@example.com 2/14/2013 Optimization Modeling - Spring 2013 #12 in the context of optimization problems. The theoretical frame-work for these notes is interval analysis. From
Lodwick, Weldon
Regulatory guidance document
The Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Program Management System Manual requires preparation of the OCRWM Regulatory Guidance Document (RGD) that addresses licensing, environmental compliance, and safety and health compliance. The document provides: regulatory compliance policy; guidance to OCRWM organizational elements to ensure a consistent approach when complying with regulatory requirements; strategies to achieve policy objectives; organizational responsibilities for regulatory compliance; guidance with regard to Program compliance oversight; and guidance on the contents of a project-level Regulatory Compliance Plan. The scope of the RGD includes site suitability evaluation, licensing, environmental compliance, and safety and health compliance, in accordance with the direction provided by Section 4.6.3 of the PMS Manual. Site suitability evaluation and regulatory compliance during site characterization are significant activities, particularly with regard to the YW MSA. OCRWM`s evaluation of whether the Yucca Mountain site is suitable for repository development must precede its submittal of a license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Accordingly, site suitability evaluation is discussed in Chapter 4, and the general statements of policy regarding site suitability evaluation are discussed in Section 2.1. Although much of the data and analyses may initially be similar, the licensing process is discussed separately in Chapter 5. Environmental compliance is discussed in Chapter 6. Safety and Health compliance is discussed in Chapter 7.
Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis
Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.
184 UNIT NAME: Concrete Rubble pile 129) REGULATORY STATUS: AOC LOCATION: Outside plant security south of C-611 Water Treatment Plant. Estimated to be less than 5 cubic feet....
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is under development by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. This development has been supported by a sequence of performance assessments (PAs) carried out by Sandla National Laboratories (SNL) to assess what is known about the WIPP and to provide .tidance for future DOE research and development activities. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling and regression techniques play an important role in these PAs by providing an assessment of the uncertainty in important analysis outcomes and identi~ing the sources of thk uncertainty. Performance assessments for the WIPP are conceptually and computational] y interesting due to regulatory requirements to assess and display the effects of both stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, where stochastic uncertainty arises from the possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period associated with the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arises from an inability to unambi-aously characterize the many models and associated parameters required in a PA for the WIPP. The interplay between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty are discussed and illustrated in the context of a recent PA carried out by SNL to support an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste.
Helton, J.C.
Threat Insight Quarterly Regulatory Compliance
the importance of integrating regulatory compliance into an organization's overall strategic IT security planning
Essays on uncertainty in economics
This thesis consists of four essays about "uncertainty" and how markets deal with it. Uncertainty is about subjective beliefs, and thus it often comes with heterogeneous beliefs that may be present temporarily or even ...
Simsek, Alp
Electoral Competition, Political Uncertainty and Policy Insulation
Uncertainty and Policy Insulation Horn, Murray. 1995. TheUncertainty and Policy Insulation United States Congress.UNCERTAINTY AND POLICY INSULATION Rui J. P. de Figueiredo,
de Figueiredo, Rui J. P. Jr.
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 1: Main report
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models.
Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.
Uncertainty relation in Schwarzschild spacetime
We explore the entropic uncertainty relation in the curved background outside a Schwarzschild black hole, and find that Hawking radiation introduces a nontrivial modification on the uncertainty bound for particular observer, therefore it could be witnessed by proper uncertainty game experimentally. We first investigate an uncertainty game between a free falling observer and his static partner holding a quantum memory initially entangled with the quantum system to be measured. Due to the information loss from Hawking decoherence, we find an inevitable increase of the uncertainty on the outcome of measurements in the view of static observer, which is dependent on the mass of the black hole, the distance of observer from event horizon, and the mode frequency of quantum memory. To illustrate the generality of this paradigm, we relate the entropic uncertainty bound with other uncertainty probe, e.g., time-energy uncertainty. In an alternative game between two static players, we show that quantum information of qubit can be transferred to quantum memory through a bath of fluctuating quantum fields outside the black hole. For a particular choice of initial state, we show that the Hawking decoherence cannot counteract entanglement generation after the dynamical evolution of system, which triggers an effectively reduced uncertainty bound that violates the intrinsic limit $-\\log_2c$. Numerically estimation for a proper choice of initial state shows that our result is comparable with possible real experiments. Finally, a discussion on the black hole firewall paradox in the context of entropic uncertainty relation is given.
Jun Feng; Yao-Zhong Zhang; Mark D. Gould; Heng Fan
varies across markets. In the presence of uncertain demand, capacity choices are shown theoreticallyCAPACITY INVESTMENT UNDER DEMAND UNCERTAINTY: THE ROLE OF IMPORTS IN THE U.S. CEMENT INDUSTRY Guy://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:firstname.lastname@example.com #12;Capacity Investment under Demand Uncertainty: The Role
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Robust Adaptive Kalman Filters for Linear TimeVarying Systems with Stochastic Parametric Uncertainties
measurements fy(i); i = 0; 1; : : : ; kg; the corresponding state estimate is denoted �?? x(kjk). Such estimation of the square of the estimation error, i.e., E \\Theta (x(k) \\Gamma �?? x(kjk)) T (x(k) \\Gamma �?? x(kjk)) \\Lambda 1) \\Gamma y(k \\Gamma 1)); �?? x(kjk \\Gamma 1) = x f (k): (2a) 2. Filtered estimation update: �?? x(kjk
Balakrishnan, Venkataramanan "Ragu"
Robust Kalman Filters for Linear Time-Varying Systems with Stochastic Parametric Uncertainties
; the corresponding state estimate is denoted ^ x(kjk). Such estimation problems arise in several applications h (x(k) ^ x(kjk)) T (x(k) ^ x(kjk)) i , at each k. When the random processes u i and um are Gaussian
Utility Maximization under Uncertainty
Motivated by several search and optimization problems over uncertain datasets, we study the stochastic versions of a broad class of combinatorial problems where either the existences or the weights of the elements in the input dataset are uncertain. The class of problems that we study includes shortest paths, minimum weight spanning trees, and minimum weight matchings over probabilistic graphs; top-k queries over probabilistic datasets; and other combinatorial problems like knapsack. By noticing that the expected value is inadequate in capturing different types of risk-averse or risk-prone behaviors, we consider a more general objective which is to maximize the expected utility of the solution for some given utility function. For weight uncertainty model, we show that we can obtain a polynomial time approximation algorithm with additive error eps for any eps>0, if there is a pseudopolynomial time algorithm for the exact version of the problem. Our result generalizes several prior works on stochastic shortest ...
Li, Jian
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment, main report
The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks presented by nuclear installations based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) began a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of the joint effort was to develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the input variables of the codes. Expert elicitation was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for the selected consequence parameters. The study was formulated jointly and was limited to the current code models and to physical quantities that could be measured in experiments. Experts developed their distributions independently. To validate the distributions generated for the wet deposition input variables, samples were taken from these distributions and propagated through the wet deposition code model. Resulting distributions closely replicated the aggregated elicited wet deposition distributions. To validate the distributions generated for the dispersion code input variables, samples from the distributions and propagated through the Gaussian plume model (GPM) implemented in the MACCS and COSYMA codes. Project teams from the NRC and CEC cooperated successfully to develop and implement a unified process for the elaboration of uncertainty distributions on consequence code input parameters. Formal expert judgment elicitation proved valuable for synthesizing the best available information. Distributions on measurable atmospheric dispersion and deposition parameters were successfully elicited from experts involved in the many phenomenological areas of consequence analysis. This volume is the first of a three-volume document describing the project.
Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L.; Miller, L.A. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States); Lui, C.H. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Paesler-Sauer, J. [Research Center, Karlsruhe (Germany); Helton, J.C. [and others
Local Varying-Alpha Theories
In a recent paper we demonstrated how the simplest model for varying alpha may be interpreted as the effect of a dielectric material, generalized to be consistent with Lorentz invariance. Unlike normal dielectrics, such a medium cannot change the speed of light, and its dynamics obey a Klein-Gordon equation. This work immediately suggests an extension of the standard theory, even if we require compliance with Lorentz invariance. Instead of a wave equation, the dynamics may satisfy a local algebraic relation involving the permittivity and the properties of the electromagnetic field, in analogy with more conventional dielectric (but still preserving Lorentz invariance). We develop the formalism for such theories and investigate some phenomenological implications. The problem of the divergence of the classical self-energy can be solved, or at least softened, in this framework. Some interesting new cosmological solutions for the very early universe are found, including the possibility of a bounce, inflation and expansion with a loitering phase, all of which are induced by early variations in alpha.
John D. Barrow; Joao Magueijo
Regulatory Considerations for Developing Generation Projects...
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Indexed Site
Generation Projects on Federal Lands Regulatory Considerations for Developing Generation Projects on Federal Lands Presentation covers regulatory considerations for developing...
Characterization of subjective uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191,40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of subjective uncertainty is discussed, including assignment of distributions, uncertain variables selected for inclusion in analysis, correlation control, sample size, statistical confidence on mean complementary cumulative distribution functions, generation of Latin hypercube samples, sensitivity analysis techniques, and scenarios involving stochastic and subjective uncertainty.
Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change
Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.
Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.
Regulatory Analysis on Criteria
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatory Analysis on Criteria for
The impact of uncertainty and risk measures
uncertainty on investment: Evidence from TEXAS oil drilling.investment decisions to changes in uncertainty using Texas oiloil price uncertainty deters var- ious types of real economic activities, such as output production, investment,
Jo, Soojin; Jo, Soojin
Uncertainty in emissions projections for climate models
Future global climate projections are subject to large uncertainties. Major sources of this uncertainty are projections of anthropogenic emissions. We evaluate the uncertainty in future anthropogenic emissions using a ...
Webster, Mort David.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Mayer, Monika.; Reilly, John M.; Harnisch, Jochen.; Hyman, Robert C.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Wang, Chien.
Uncertainty, investment, and industry evolution
We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods ...
Caballero, Ricardo J.
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices
This volume is the second of a two-volume document that summarizes a joint project by the US Nuclear Regulatory and the Commission of European Communities to assess uncertainties in the MACCS and COSYMA probabilistic accident consequence codes. These codes were developed primarily for estimating the risks presented by nuclear reactors based on postulated frequencies and magnitudes of potential accidents. This two-volume report, which examines mechanisms and uncertainties of transfer through the food chain, is the first in a series of five such reports. A panel of sixteen experts was formed to compile credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for food chain transfer that affect calculations of offsite radiological consequences. Seven of the experts reported on transfer into the food chain through soil and plants, nine reported on transfer via food products from animals, and two reported on both. The expert judgment elicitation procedure and its outcomes are described in these volumes. This volume contains seven appendices. Appendix A presents a brief discussion of the MAACS and COSYMA model codes. Appendix B is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on soils and plants. Appendix C presents the rationales and responses of each of the members of the soils and plants expert panel. Appendix D is the structure document and elicitation questionnaire for the expert panel on animal transfer. The rationales and responses of each of the experts on animal transfer are given in Appendix E. Brief biographies of the food chain expert panel members are provided in Appendix F. Aggregated results of expert responses are presented in graph format in Appendix G.
Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty
Consider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. �Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,�Harvesting a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty 1 (with
Saphores, Jean-Daniel M
Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About...
Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel Reducing Petroleum Despendence in California: Uncertainties About Light-Duty Diesel 2002 DEER Conference...
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ FINAL REGULATORY FLEXIBILITY ANALYSIS Amendment and Need The purpose of the non-AFA crab sideboard limits was to prevent vessels with crab QS from paper of all GOA sideboards for non-American Fisheries Act (AFA) crab vessels. In April 2007
Measurement uncertainty from In-Situ gamma spectroscopy of nonhomogeneous containers and from Laboratory Assay
During a D and D or ER process containers of radioactive waste are normally generated. The activity can commonly be determined by gamma spectroscopy, but frequently the measurement conditions are not conducive to precise sample-detector geometries, and usually the radioactive material is not in a homogeneous distribution. What is the best method to accurately assay these containers - sampling followed by laboratory analysis, or in-situ spectroscopy? What is the uncertainty of the final result? To help answer these questions, the Canberra tool ISOCS Uncertainty Estimator [IUE] was used to mathematically simulate and evaluate several different measurement scenarios and to estimate the uncertainty of the measurement and the sampling process. Several representative containers and source distributions were mathematically defined and evaluated to determine the in-situ measurement uncertainty due to the sample non-uniformity. In the First example a typical field situation requiring the measurement of 200-liter drums was evaluated. A sensitivity analysis was done to show which parameters contributed the most to the uncertainty. Then an efficiency uncertainty calculation was performed. In the Second example, a group of 200-liter drums with various types of non-homogeneous distributions was created, and them measurements were simulated with different detector arrangements to see how the uncertainty varied. In the Third example, a truck filled with non-uniform soil was first measured with multiple in-situ detectors to determine the measurement uncertainty. Then composite samples were extracted and the sampling uncertainty computed for comparison to the field measurement uncertainty. (authors)
Bronson, F. [CHP, Canberra Industries, Meriden CT (United States); Atrashkevich, V. [Stroiteley, Moscow (Russian Federation)
Regulatory Streamlining and Improvement
The Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) engaged in numerous projects outlined under the scope of work discussed in the United States Department of Energy (DOE) grant number DE-FC26-04NT15456 awarded to the IOGCC. Numerous projects were completed that were extremely valuable to state oil and gas agencies as a result of work performed utilizing resources provided by the grant. There are numerous areas in which state agencies still need assistance. This additional assistance will need to be addressed under future scopes of work submitted annually to DOE's Project Officer for this grant. This report discusses the progress of the projects outlined under the grant scope of work for the 2005-2006 areas of interest, which are as follows: Area of Interest No. 1--Regulatory Streamlining and Improvement: This area of interest continues to support IOGCC's regulatory streamlining efforts that include the identification and elimination of unnecessary duplications of efforts between and among state and federal programs dealing with exploration and production on public lands. Area of Interest No. 2--Technology: This area of interest seeks to improve efficiency in states through the identification of technologies that can reduce costs. Area of Interest No. 3--Training and Education: This area of interest is vital to upgrading the skills of regulators and industry alike. Within the National Energy Policy, there are many appropriate training and education opportunities. Education was strongly endorsed by the President's National Energy Policy Development group. Acting through the governors offices, states are very effective conduits for the dissemination of energy education information. While the IOGCC favors the development of a comprehensive, long-term energy education plan, states are also supportive of immediate action on important concerns, such as energy prices, availability and conservation. Area of Interest No. 4--Resource Assessment and Development: This area of interest relates directly to helping maximize production of domestic oil and natural gas resources, including areas that are under explored or have not been adequately defined.
Mark A. Carl
It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.
Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.
Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework
Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software.
Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.
In order to understand best-estimate calculations of the peak local fuel enthalpy during a rod ejection accident, an assessment of the uncertainty has been completed. The analysis took into account point kinetics parameters which would be available from a three-dimensional core model and engineering judgment as to the uncertainty in those parameters. Sensitivity studies to those parameters were carried out using the best-estimate code PARCS. The results showed that the uncertainty (corresponding to one standard deviation) in local fuel enthalpy would be determined primarily by the uncertainty in ejected rod worth and delayed neutron fraction. For an uncertainty in the former of 8% and the latter of 5%, the uncertainty in fuel enthalpy varied from 51% to 69% for control rod worth varying from $1.2 to $1.0. Also considered in the uncertainty were the errors introduced by uncertainties in the Doppler reactivity coefficient, the fuel pellet specific heat, and assembly and fuel pin peaking factors.
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan
Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project.
Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.
Experimental Uncertainties (Errors) Sources of Experimental Uncertainties (Experimental Errors)
the preparation of the lab report. A calculator should 1. Bevington, P. R., Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969. 2. Taylor, J. R., An introduction to uncertainty analysis in the lab. In this laboratory, we keep to a very simple form of error analysis, our purpose being more
Mukasyan, Alexander
System Identification: Time Varying and Nonlinear Methods
that the choice of the generalized time varying ARX model (GTV-ARX) can be set to realize a time varying dead beat observer. Methods to use the developed algorithm(s) in this research are then considered for application to the identification of system models...
Majji, Manoranjan
Fractal analysis of time varying data
Characteristics of time varying data, such as an electrical signal, are analyzed by converting the data from a temporal domain into a spatial domain pattern. Fractal analysis is performed on the spatial domain pattern, thereby producing a fractal dimension D.sub.F. The fractal dimension indicates the regularity of the time varying data.
Vo-Dinh, Tuan (Knoxville, TN); Sadana, Ajit (Oxford, MS)
Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation...
Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May 23, 2012 Regulatory Considerations for Developing Distributed Generation Projects Webinar May 23, 2012 Document covers the Regulatory...
Economic History Revisited: New Uncertainties
to the southern and midwestern regions of the United States. However, the large run-up in oil prices is increasingEconomic History Revisited: New Uncertainties I n the last Sitar-Rutgers Regional Report, we are paying ever-increasing prices for fewer available sites. Warehouse sites in the southern portion
Impact of orifice metering uncertainties
In a recent utility study, attributed 38% of its unaccounted-for UAF gas to orifice metering uncertainty biasing caused by straightening vanes. How this was determined and how this applied to the company's orifice meters is described. Almost all (97%) of the company's UAF gas was found to be attributed to identifiable accounting procedures, measurement problems, theft and leakage.
Stuart, J.W. (Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (USA))
4, 507532, 2004 Emission uncertainty
and Physics Discussions Impact of different emission inventories on simulated tropospheric ozone over China The importance of emission inventory uncertainty on the simulation of summertime tro- pospheric Ozone over China has been analyzed using a regional chemical transport model. Three independent emissions inventories
Boyer, Edmond
A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green's Function method.
Estimating the uncertainty in reactivity accident neutronic calculations
A study of the uncertainty in calculations of the rod ejection accident in a pressurized water reactor is being carried out for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This paper is a progress report on that study. Results are presented for the sensitivity of core energy deposition to the key parameters: ejected rod worth, delayed neutron fraction, Doppler reactivity coefficient, and fuel specific heat. These results can be used in the future to estimate the uncertainty in local fuel enthalpy given some assumptions about the uncertainty in the key parameters. This study is also concerned with the effect of the intra-assembly representation in calculations. The issue is the error that might be present if assembly-average power is calculated, and pin peaking factors from a static calculation are then used to determine local fuel enthalpy. This is being studied with the help of a collaborative effort with Russian and French analysts who are using codes with different intra-assembly representations. The US code being used is PARCS which calculates power on an assembly-average basis. The Russian code being used is BARS which calculates power for individual fuel pins using a heterogeneous representation based on a Green`s Function method.
Diamond, D.J.; Yang, C.Y.; Aronson, A.L.
Regulatory Requirements for Cogeneration Projects
for cogeneration, therefore, the discussion will be limited to those portions of each act that affect cogenerators. Since the original cogeneration legislation was passed in 1978 and implemented by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in 1980... major pieces of legislation that impact cogeneration as well as an outline of the major provisions obtain ed in the Department of Energy Federal Energy Regulatory Commission final rule implementing Section 201 and Section 210 of PURPA. Public Uti...
Curry, K. A., Jr.
Regulatory facility guide for Ohio
The Regulatory Facility Guide (RFG) has been developed for the DOE and contractor facilities located in the state of Ohio. It provides detailed compilations of international, federal, and state transportation-related regulations applicable to shipments originating at destined to Ohio facilities. This RFG was developed as an additional resource tool for use both by traffic managers who must ensure that transportation operations are in full compliance with all applicable regulatory requirements and by oversight personnel who must verify compliance activities.
Anderson, S.S.; Bock, R.E.; Francis, M.W.; Gove, R.M.; Johnson, P.E.; Kovac, F.M.; Mynatt, J.O. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Rymer, A.C. [Transportation Consulting Services, Knoxville, TN (United States)
Solar mass-varying neutrino oscillations
We propose that the solar neutrino deficit may be due to oscillations of mass-varying neutrinos (MaVaNs). This scenario elucidates solar neutrino data beautifully while remaining comfortably compatible with atmospheric neutrino and K2K data...
Marfatia, Danny; Huber, P.; Barger, V.
xi Chapter 1 The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on theLIST OF FIGURES Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Oil priceOil price uncertainty with and without realized
Optimization under uncertainty in radiation therapy
In the context of patient care for life-threatening illnesses, the presence of uncertainty may compromise the quality of a treatment. In this thesis, we investigate robust approaches to managing uncertainty in radiation ...
Chan, Timothy Ching-Yee
Reduction in maximum time uncertainty of paired time signals
Reduction in the maximum time uncertainty (t/sub max/ - t/sub min/) of a series of paired time signals t/sub 1/ and t/sub 2/ varying between two input terminals and representative of a series of single events where t/sub 1/ less than or equal to t/sub 2/ and t/sub 1/ + t/sub 2/ equals a constant, is carried out with a circuit utilizing a combination of OR and AND gates as signal selecting means and one or more time delays to increase the minimum value (t/sub min/) of the first signal t/sub 1/ closer to t/sub max/ and thereby reduce the difference. The circuit may utilize a plurality of stages to reduce the uncertainty by factors of 20 to 800.
Theodosiou, G.E.; Dawson, J.W.
Quantum mechanical time contradicts the uncertainty principle
The a priori time in conventional quantum mechanics is shown to contradict the uncertainty principle. A possible solution is given.
Hitoshi Kitada
SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Convergence of the Uncertainty Results
This paper describes the convergence of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) probabilistic results of offsite consequences for the uncertainty analysis of the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The consequence metrics evaluated are individual latent-cancer fatality (LCF) risk and individual early fatality risk. Consequence results are presented as conditional risk (i.e., assuming the accident occurs, risk per event) to individuals of the public as a result of the accident. In order to verify convergence for this uncertainty analysis, as recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission�s Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards, a �high� source term from the original population of Monte Carlo runs has been selected to be used for: (1) a study of the distribution of consequence results stemming solely from epistemic uncertainty in the MACCS2 parameters (i.e., separating the effect from the source term uncertainty), and (2) a comparison between Simple Random Sampling (SRS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) in order to validate the original results obtained with LHS. Three replicates (each using a different random seed) of size 1,000 each using LHS and another set of three replicates of size 1,000 using SRS are analyzed. The results show that the LCF risk results are well converged with either LHS or SRS sampling. The early fatality risk results are less well converged at radial distances beyond 2 miles, and this is expected due to the sparse data (predominance of �zero� results).
Bixler, Nathan E.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Mattie, Patrick D.; Ghosh, S. Tina
A method to estimate the effect of deformable image registration uncertainties on daily dose mapping
Purpose: To develop a statistical sampling procedure for spatially-correlated uncertainties in deformable image registration and then use it to demonstrate their effect on daily dose mapping. Methods: Sequential daily CT studies are acquired to map anatomical variations prior to fractionated external beam radiotherapy. The CTs are deformably registered to the planning CT to obtain displacement vector fields (DVFs). The DVFs are used to accumulate the dose delivered each day onto the planning CT. Each DVF has spatially-correlated uncertainties associated with it. Principal components analysis (PCA) is applied to measured DVF error maps to produce decorrelated principal component modes of the errors. The modes are sampled independently and reconstructed to produce synthetic registration error maps. The synthetic error maps are convolved with dose mapped via deformable registration to model the resulting uncertainty in the dose mapping. The results are compared to the dose mapping uncertainty that would result from uncorrelated DVF errors that vary randomly from voxel to voxel. Results: The error sampling method is shown to produce synthetic DVF error maps that are statistically indistinguishable from the observed error maps. Spatially-correlated DVF uncertainties modeled by our procedure produce patterns of dose mapping error that are different from that due to randomly distributed uncertainties. Conclusions: Deformable image registration uncertainties have complex spatial distributions. The authors have developed and tested a method to decorrelate the spatial uncertainties and make statistical samples of highly correlated error maps. The sample error maps can be used to investigate the effect of DVF uncertainties on daily dose mapping via deformable image registration. An initial demonstration of this methodology shows that dose mapping uncertainties can be sensitive to spatial patterns in the DVF uncertainties.
Murphy, Martin J.; Salguero, Francisco J.; Siebers, Jeffrey V.; Staub, David; Vaman, Constantin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond Virginia 23298 (United States)
Integration of the NUREG-1150 analyses: Calculation of risk and propagation of uncertainties
The calculation of risk and the propagation of uncertainties in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's reassessment of risk from commercial nuclear power stations (i.e., NUREG-1150) is described. The overall integration of the analysis performed for each nuclear power station considered in NUREG-1150 is based on: (1) relatively fast-running models for the individual parts of the analysis, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual parts of the analysis, (3) definition of selected issues for uncertainty analysis, (4) use of Monte Carlo procedures in conjunction with an efficient sampling technique (i.e., Latin hypercubs sampling) to propagate uncertainties, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. The preceding approach is described and then illustrated with the analysis performed for the Peach Bottom nuclear power station. 56 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.
Helton, J.C.; Griesmeyer, J.M.; Haskin, F.E.; Iman, R.L.; Amos, C.N.; Murfin, W.B.
Uncertainties in Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Advanced
To meet Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) cellulosic biofuel mandates, the United States will require an annual domestic supply of about 242 million Mg of biomass by 2022. To improve the feedstock logistics of lignocellulosic biofuels and access available biomass resources from areas with varying yields, commodity systems have been proposed and designed to deliver on-spec biomass feedstocks at preprocessing �depots�, which densify and stabilize the biomass prior to long-distance transport and delivery to centralized biorefineries. The harvesting, preprocessing, and logistics (HPL) of biomass commodity supply chains thus could introduce spatially variable environmental impacts into the biofuel life cycle due to needing to harvest, move, and preprocess biomass from multiple distances that have variable spatial density. This study examines the uncertainty in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of corn stover logisticsHPL within a bio-ethanol supply chain in the state of Kansas, where sustainable biomass supply varies spatially. Two scenarios were evaluated each having a different number of depots of varying capacity and location within Kansas relative to a central commodity-receiving biorefinery to test GHG emissions uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the spatial uncertainty in the HPL gate-to-gate sequence. The results show that the transport of densified biomass introduces the highest variability and contribution to the carbon footprint of the logistics HPL supply chain (0.2-13 g CO2e/MJ). Moreover, depending upon the biomass availability and its spatial density and surrounding transportation infrastructure (road and rail), logistics HPL processes can increase the variability in life cycle environmental impacts for lignocellulosic biofuels. Within Kansas, life cycle GHG emissions could range from 24 to 41 g CO2e/MJ depending upon the location, size and number of preprocessing depots constructed. However, this range can be minimized through optimizing the siting of preprocessing depots where ample rail infrastructure exists to supply biomass commodity to a regional biorefinery supply system
Kara G. Cafferty; Erin M. Searcy; Long Nguyen; Sabrina Spatari
Entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurements
We present the entropic uncertainty relations for multiple measurement settings in quantum mechanics. Those uncertainty relations are obtained for both cases with and without the presence of quantum memory. They take concise forms which can be proven in a unified method and easy to calculate. Our results recover the well known entropic uncertainty relations for two observables, which show the uncertainties about the outcomes of two incompatible measurements. Those uncertainty relations are applicable in both foundations of quantum theory and the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols.
Shang Liu; Liang-Zhu Mu; Heng Fan
Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150
Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives.
Benjamin, U.S.; Boyd, G.J.
Cosmo MSW effect for mass varying neutrinos
We consider neutrinos with varying masses which arise in scenarios relating neutrino masses to the dark energy density in the universe. We point out that the neutrino mass variation can lead to level crossing and thus a cosmo MSW effect, having dramatic consequences for the flavor ratio of astrophysical neutrinos.
Pham Quang Hung; Heinrich P�s
State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal
State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump Installations: 2012 Kevin McCray Executive of this project was to update previous research accomplished by the Geothermal Heat Pump Consortium (GHPC of ground-source heat pump (GSHP) systems. The work was to provide insight into existing and anticipated
UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY AND SAFEGUARDS ON RADIATION THERAPY OVEREXPOSURES IN PANAMA Addressees All medical licensees. Purpose The U.S. Nuclear times resulted in significant radiation overexposures to patients. The hospital staff did not perform
Risk Aversion and CO2 Regulatory Uncertainty in Power Generation Investment: Policy and Modeling Implications
the social cost of carbon abatement by as much as 50%? in this setting with risk neutral investors1. Delay can lead to investment in dirty technology in hopes that future policies will favor existing coal plants, or to support of lobbying efforts designed...
Fan, L; Hobbs, Benjamin F; Norman, C S
Investment under Regulatory Uncertainty: U.S. Electricity Generation Investment Since 1996
Roberts, President & CEO, Entergy Wholesale Operations, U.S.Mission Energy EPG (Entergy Power Group) GPU International
Ishii, Jun; Yan, Jingming
Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center
Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian
Research yields precise uncertainty equations
Results of a study of orifice-meter accuracy by Chevron Oil Field Research Co. at its Venice, La., calibration facility have important implications for natural gas custody-transfer measurement. The calibration facility, data collection, and equipment calibration were described elsewhere. This article explains the derivation of uncertainty factors and details the study's findings. The results were based on calibration of two 16-in. orifice-meter runs. The experimental data cover a beta-ratio range of from 0.27 to 0.71 and a Reynolds number range of from 4,000,000 to 35,000,000. Discharge coefficients were determined by comparing the orifice flow to the flow from critical-flow nozzles.
Jones, E.H.; Ferguson, K.R.
Uncertainty analysis of geothermal energy economics.
?? This dissertation research endeavors to explore geothermal energy economics by assessing and quantifying the uncertainties associated with the nature of geothermal energy and energy� (more)
Sener, Adil Caner
is pervasive for renewable resources, and it can play aConsider a valuable renewable resource whose biomass X2003. �Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty,�
Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration...
Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI)
Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: This report describes research towards the development of...
Uncertainty Quantification Techniques for Sensor Calibration Monitoring in Nuclear Power Plants Re-direct Destination: Temp Data Fields Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Lin, Guang; Crawford,...
High-level waste qualification: Managing uncertainty
Qualification of high-level waste implies specifications driven by risk against which performance can be assessed. The inherent uncertainties should be addressed in the specifications and statistical methods should be employed to appropriately manage these uncertainties. Uncertainties exist whenever measurements are obtained, sampling is employed, or processes are affected by systematic or random perturbations. This paper presents the approach and statistical methods currently employed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) and West Valley Nuclear Services (WVNS) to characterize, minimize, and control uncertainties pertinent to a waste-form acceptance specification concerned with product consistency.
Pulsipher, B.A. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Spatially varying embedded stochastic galerkin methods for steady-state PDEs.
Existing discretizations for stochastic PDEs, based on a tensor product between the deterministic basis and the stochastic basis, treat the required resolution of uncertainty as uniform across the physical domain. However, solutions to many PDEs of interest exhibit spatially localized features that may result in uncertainty being severely over or under-resolved by existing discretizations. In this report, we explore the mechanics and accuracy of using a spatially varying stochastic expansion. This is achieved through an adaptive refinement algorithm where simple error estimates are used to independently drive refinement of the stochastic basis at each point in the physical domain. Results are presented comparing the accuracy of the adaptive techinque to the accuracy achieved using uniform refinement.
Cyr, Eric Christopher
An Adaptive Particle Filtering Approach to Tracking Modes in a Varying Shallow Ocean Environment
The shallow ocean environment is ever changing mostly due to temperature variations in its upper layers (< 100m) directly affecting sound propagation throughout. The need to develop processors that are capable of tracking these changes implies a stochastic as well as an 'adaptive' design. The stochastic requirement follows directly from the multitude of variations created by uncertain parameters and noise. Some work has been accomplished in this area, but the stochastic nature was constrained to Gaussian uncertainties. It has been clear for a long time that this constraint was not particularly realistic leading a Bayesian approach that enables the representation of any uncertainty distribution. Sequential Bayesian techniques enable a class of processors capable of performing in an uncertain, nonstationary (varying statistics), non-Gaussian, variable shallow ocean. In this paper adaptive processors providing enhanced signals for acoustic hydrophonemeasurements on a vertical array as well as enhanced modal function estimates are developed. Synthetic data is provided to demonstrate that this approach is viable.
Candy, J V
Identification and Characterization of Prokaryotic Regulatory Networks: Final Report
We have completed our characterization of both the transcriptional regulatory network and post-transcriptional regulatory motifs in Shewanella.
Gary D Stormo
Fact Sheet: DOE/National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissione...
Energy Savers [EERE]
DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Natural Gas Infrastructure Modernization Partnership Fact Sheet: DOENational Association of Regulatory Utility...
Multi-region capacity planning model with contracts of varying duration under uncertainty : a satellite capacity acquisition case study
This paper highlights the issues associated with and presents a modeling framework for long-term capacity planning problems constrained in a similar fashion to satellite capacity acquisition. Although ambiguities exist, ...
Lydiard, John M., IV
Techniques of analyzing the impacts of certain electric-utility ratemaking and regulatory-policy concepts. Bibliography
This bibliography provides documentation for use by state public utility commissions and major nonregulated utilities in evaluating the applicability of a wide range of electric utility rate design and regulatory concepts in light of certain regulatory objectives. Part I, Utility Regulatory Objectives, contains 2084 citations on conservation of energy and capital; efficient use of facilities and resources; and equitable rates to electricity consumers. Part II, Rate Design Concepts, contains 1238 citations on time-of-day rates; seasonally-varying rates; cost-of-service rates; interruptible rates (including the accompanying use of load management techniques); declining block rates; and lifeline rates. Part III, Regulatory Concepts, contains 1282 references on restrictions on master metering; procedures for review of automatic adjustment clauses; prohibitions of rate or regulatory discrimination against solar, wind, or other small energy systems; treatment of advertising expenses; and procedures to protect ratepayers from abrupt termination of service.
Optimization Online - Varying the Population Size of Artificial ...
Mar 2, 2005 ... Varying the Population Size of Artificial Foraging Swarms on Time Varying ... Abstract: Swarm Intelligence (SI) is the property of a system�...
Carlos Fernandes
Uncertainty Analysis for Photovoltaic Degradation Rates (Poster)
Dependable and predictable energy production is the key to the long-term success of the PV industry. PV systems show over the lifetime of their exposure a gradual decline that depends on many different factors such as module technology, module type, mounting configuration, climate etc. When degradation rates are determined from continuous data the statistical uncertainty is easily calculated from the regression coefficients. However, total uncertainty that includes measurement uncertainty and instrumentation drift is far more difficult to determine. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was chosen to investigate a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The most important effect for degradation rates is to avoid instrumentation that changes over time in the field. For instance, a drifting irradiance sensor, which can be achieved through regular calibration, can lead to a substantially erroneous degradation rates. However, the accuracy of the irradiance sensor has negligible impact on degradation rate uncertainty emphasizing that precision (relative accuracy) is more important than absolute accuracy.
Jordan, D.; Kurtz, S.; Hansen, C.
Time varying arctic climate change amplification
During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.
Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO
Time varying, multivariate volume data reduction
Large-scale supercomputing is revolutionizing the way science is conducted. A growing challenge, however, is understanding the massive quantities of data produced by large-scale simulations. The data, typically time-varying, multivariate, and volumetric, can occupy from hundreds of gigabytes to several terabytes of storage space. Transferring and processing volume data of such sizes is prohibitively expensive and resource intensive. Although it may not be possible to entirely alleviate these problems, data compression should be considered as part of a viable solution, especially when the primary means of data analysis is volume rendering. In this paper we present our study of multivariate compression, which exploits correlations among related variables, for volume rendering. Two configurations for multidimensional compression based on vector quantization are examined. We emphasize quality reconstruction and interactive rendering, which leads us to a solution using graphics hardware to perform on-the-fly decompression during rendering. In this paper we present a solution which addresses the need for data reduction in large supercomputing environments where data resulting from simulations occupies tremendous amounts of storage. Our solution employs a lossy encoding scheme to acrueve data reduction with several options in terms of rate-distortion behavior. We focus on encoding of multiple variables together, with optional compression in space and time. The compressed volumes can be rendered directly with commodity graphics cards at interactive frame rates and rendering quality similar to that of static volume renderers. Compression results using a multivariate time-varying data set indicate that encoding multiple variables results in acceptable performance in the case of spatial and temporal encoding as compared to independent compression of variables. The relative performance of spatial vs. temporal compression is data dependent, although temporal compression has the advantage of offering smooth animations, while spatial compression can handle volumes of larger dimensions.
Ahrens, James P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fout, Nathaniel [UC DAVIS; Ma, Kwan - Liu [UC DAVIS
Regulatory Requirements | The Ames Laboratory
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatory
Theoretical uncertainty of orifice flow measurement
Orifice meters are the most common meters used for fluid flow measurement, especially for measuring hydrocarbons. Meters are rugged, mechanically simple, and well suited for field use under extreme weather conditions. Because of their long history of use and dominance in the fluid flow measurement, their designs, installation requirements, and equations for flow rate calculation have been standardized by different organizations in the United States and internationally. These standards provide the guideline for the users to achieve accurate flow measurement. and minimize measurement uncertainty. This paper discusses different factors that contribute to the measurement inaccuracy and provide an awareness to minimize or eliminate these errors. Many factors which influence the overall measurement uncertainty are associated with the orifice meter application. Major contributors to measurement uncertainty include the predictability of flow profile, fluid properties at flowing condition, precision of empirical equation for discharge coefficient, manufacturing tolerances in meter components, and the uncertainty associated with secondary devices monitoring the static line pressure, differential pressure across the orifice plate, flowing temperature, etc. Major factors contributing to the measurement uncertainty for a thin, concentric, square-edged orifice flowmeter are as follows: (a) Tolerances in prediction of coefficient of discharge, (b) Predictability in defining the physical properties of the flowing fluid, (c) Fluid flow condition, (d) Construction tolerances in meter components, (e) Uncertainty of secondary devices/instrumentation, and (f) Data reduction and computation. Different factors under each of the above areas are discussed with precautionary measures and installation procedures to minimize or eliminate measurement uncertainty.
Husain, Z.D. [Daniel Flow Products, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)
Grand Gulf-prioritization of regulatory requirements
As cost pressures mount, Grand Gulf nuclear station (GGNS) is relying increasingly on various prioritization approaches to implement, modify, eliminate, or defer regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements can be prioritized through the use of three measures: (1) safety (or risk) significance; (2) cost; and (3) public policy (or political) significance. This paper summarizes GGNS' efforts to implement solutions to regulatory issues using these three prioritization schemes to preserve a balance between cost and safety benefit.
Meisner, M.J. (Entergy Operations Inc., Port Gibson, MS (United States))
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, December 1989
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Houlbert, L.M.; Langston, M.E. (Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (USA)); Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA))
Environmental regulatory update table, March 1989
Houlberg, L.; Langston, M.E.; Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, April 1989
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, October 1991
Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November 1990
Hawkins, G.T.; Houlberg, L.M.; Noghrei-Nikbakht, P.A.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental regulatory update table, July 1991
This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (July 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November 1991
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September 1991
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, December 1991
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, August 1991
This Environmental Regulatory Update Table (August 1991) provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated each month with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Houlberg, L.M., Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.
Mass Varying Neutrinos in the Sun
In this work we study the phenomenological consequences of the dependence of mass varying neutrinos on the neutrino density in the Sun, which we precisely compute in each point along the neutrino trajectory. We find that a generic characteristic of these scenarios is that they establish a connection between the effective Delta m^2 in the Sun and the absolute neutrino mass scale. This does not lead to any new allowed region in the oscillation parameter space. On the contrary, due to this effect, the description of solar neutrino data worsens for large absolute mass. As a consequence a lower bound on the level of degeneracy can be derived from the combined analysis of the solar and KamLAND data. In particular this implies that the analysis favours normal over inverted mass orderings. These results, in combination with a positive independent determination of the absolute neutrino mass, can be used as a test of these scenarios together with a precise determination of the energy dependence of the survival probability of solar neutrinos, in particular for low energies.
Marco Cirelli; M. C. Gonzalez-Garcia; Carlos Pena-Garay
Fractional revivals through R�nyi uncertainty relations
We show that the R\\'enyi uncertainty relations give a good description of the dynamical behavior of wave packets and constitute a sound approach to revival phenomena by analyzing three model systems: the simple harmonic oscillator, the infinite square well, and the quantum bouncer. We prove the usefulness of entropic uncertainty relations as a tool for identifying fractional revivals by providing a comparison in different contexts with the usual Heisenberg uncertainty relation and with the common approach in terms of the autocorrelation function.
Elvira Romera; Francisco de los Santos
Sandia National Laboratories: Federal Electric Regulatory Commission...
and Small Generator Interconnection Agreement Dakota Version 5.4 Released Sandia-UC Davis Collaboration Funded by DOE Office of Fusion Energy Federal Electric Regulatory...
Mineral Test Hole Regulatory Act (Tennessee)
Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]
The Mineral Hole Regulatory Act is applicable to any person (individual, corporation, company, association, joint venture, partnership, receiver, trustee, guardian, executor, administrator,...
Federal / State Legislative & Regulatory Changes Required for...
Issues Federal and State Blending Restrictions Action by ASTM NCWM to address higher ethanol blends Federal State Legislative & Regulatory Changes Required for Introduction of...
EAC Recommendations Regarding Emerging and Alternative Regulatory...
Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]
of the continued exploration of initiatives focused on the concepts of regulatoryutility business models. The paper includes a summary of regulatory model initiatives, current and...
Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC) Remediation...
Office of Environmental Management (EM)
Laboratory December 17, 2014 To view all the P&RA CoP 2014 Technical Exchange Meeting videos click here. Video Presentation Interstate Technology & Regulatory Council (ITRC)...
Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects...
Open Energy Info (EERE)
Seamless Transport Policy: Institutional and Regulatory Aspects of Inter-Modal Coordination Jump to: navigation, search Tool Summary LAUNCH TOOL Name: Seamless Transport Policy:...
Other Regulatory Efforts | Department of Energy
Efforts Other Regulatory Efforts In addition to regulating international electricity trade, the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability participates in other...
Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.
Error Detection and Recovery for Robot Motion Planning with Uncertainty
Robots must plan and execute tasks in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty arises from sensing errors, control errors, and uncertainty in the geometry of the environment. The last, which is called model error, has ...
Donald, Bruce Randall
Analysis of S-Circuit Uncertainty
The theory of sensori-computational circuits provides a capable framework for the description and optimization of robotic systems, including on-line optimizations. This theory, however, is inadequate in that it does not account for uncertainty in a...
Ahmed, Taahir
Methods for Composing Tradeoff Studies under Uncertainty
for the power train. This level of knowledge reuse is in keeping with good systems engineering practice. However, existing procedures for generating tradeoff studies under uncertainty involve assumptions that preclude engineers from composing them in a...
Bily, Christopher
Estimating uncertainties in integrated reservoir studies
To make sound investment decisions, decision makers need accurate estimates of the uncertainties present in forecasts of reservoir performance. In this work I propose a method, the integrated mismatch method, that incorporates the misfit...
Zhang, Guohong
Uncertainty in climate change policy analysis
Achieving agreement about whether and how to control greenhouse gas emissions would be difficult enough even if the consequences were fully known. Unfortunately, choices must be made in the face of great uncertainty, about ...
Jacoby, Henry D.; Prinn, Ronald G.
Investment and Upgrade in Distributed Generation under Uncertainty
The ongoing deregulation of electricity industries worldwide is providing incentives for microgrids to use small-scale distributed generation (DG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heat exchangers (HXs) to meet local energy loads. Although the electric-only efficiency of DG is lower than that of central-station production, relatively high tariff rates and the potential for CHP applications increase the attraction of on-site generation. Nevertheless, a microgrid contemplatingthe installation of gas-fired DG has to be aware of the uncertainty in the natural gas price. Treatment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of the investment opportunity, which then delays the adoption decision as the opportunity cost of exercising the investment option increases as well. In this paper, we take the perspective of a microgrid that can proceed in a sequential manner with DG capacity and HX investment in order to reduce its exposure to risk from natural gas price volatility. In particular, with the availability of the HX, the microgrid faces a tradeoff between reducing its exposure to the natural gas price and maximising its cost savings. By varying the volatility parameter, we find that the microgrid prefers a direct investment strategy for low levels of volatility and a sequential one for higher levels of volatility.
Siddiqui, Afzal; Maribu, Karl
Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption...
Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Uncertainty analysis of multi-rate kinetics of uranium desorption from sediments. Abstract: A...
Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term...
Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of Geologic Disposal Systems Influence of Nuclear Fuel Cycles on Uncertainty of Long Term Performance of...
Environment, safety, and health regulatory implementation plan
To identify, document, and maintain the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project`s environment, safety, and health (ES&H) regulatory requirements, the US Department of Energy (DOE) UMTRA Project Office tasked the Technical Assistance Contractor (TAC) to develop a regulatory operating envelope for the UMTRA Project. The system selected for managing the UMTRA regulatory operating envelope data bass is based on the Integrated Project Control/Regulatory Compliance System (IPC/RCS) developed by WASTREN, Inc. (WASTREN, 1993). The IPC/RCS is a tool used for identifying regulatory and institutional requirements and indexing them to hardware, personnel, and program systems on a project. The IPC/RCS will be customized for the UMTRA Project surface remedial action and groundwater restoration programs. The purpose of this plan is to establish the process for implementing and maintaining the UMTRA Project`s regulatory operating envelope, which involves identifying all applicable regulatory and institutional requirements and determining compliance status. The plan describes how the Project will identify ES&H regulatory requirements, analyze applicability to the UMTRA Project, and evaluate UMTRA Project compliance status.
Not Available
Uranium Watch REGULATORY CONFUSION: FEDERALAND STATE
Uranium Watch Report REGULATORY CONFUSION: FEDERALAND STATE ENFORCEMENT OF 40 C.F.R. PART 61 SUBPART W INTRODUCTION 1. This Uranium Watch Report, Regulatory Confusion: Federal and State Enforcement at the White Mesa Uranium Mill, San Juan County, Utah. 2. The DAQ, a Division of the Utah Department
State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump
State Regulatory Oversight of Geothermal Heat Pump Installa:ons: 2012 & 2009 Kevin McCray, Execu:ve Director #12;2009 #12;Sponsors ·The Geothermal Hea requested geothermal hea:ng and cooling regulatory data. · An email containing
Feedback-based Information Roadmap (FIRM): Graph-based Estimation and Control of Robotic Systems Under Uncertainty
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.1.4 Dynamic Programming . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.1.5 Constrained POMDP problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2 Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) Controllers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2.1 Time-varying LQG... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.3.3 Success Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.4 Generic FIRM Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 4.5 Probabilistic Completeness Under Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.5...
Aghamohammadi, Aliakbar
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of fission gas behavior in engineering-scale fuel modeling
The role of uncertainties in fission gas behavior calculations as part of engineering-scale nuclear fuel modeling is investigated using the BISON fuel performance code and a recently implemented physics-based model for the coupled fission gas release and swelling. Through the integration of BISON with the DAKOTA software, a sensitivity analysis of the results to selected model parameters is carried out based on UO2 single-pellet simulations covering different power regimes. The parameters are varied within ranges representative of the relative uncertainties and consistent with the information from the open literature. The study leads to an initial quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in fission gas behavior modeling with the parameter characterization presently available. Also, the relative importance of the single parameters is evaluated. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is carried out based on simulations of a fuel rod irradiation experiment, pointing out a significant impact of the considered uncertainties on the calculated fission gas release and cladding diametral strain. The results of the study indicate that the commonly accepted deviation between calculated and measured fission gas release by a factor of 2 approximately corresponds to the inherent modeling uncertainty at high fission gas release. Nevertheless, higher deviations may be expected for values around 10% and lower. Implications are discussed in terms of directions of research for the improved modeling of fission gas behavior for engineering purposes.
G. Pastore; L.P. Swiler; J.D. Hales; S.R. Novascone; D.M. Perez; B.W. Spencer; L. Luzzi; P. Van Uffelen; R.L. Williamson
Uncertainties in NDE Reliability and Assessing the Impact on RI-ISI
A major thrust in the past 20 years has been to upgrade nondestructive examinations (NDE) for use in inservice inspection (ISI) programs to more effectively manage degradation at operating nuclear power plants. Risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) is one of the outcomes of this work, and this approach relies heavily on the reliability of NDE, when properly applied, to detect sources of expected degradation. There have been a number of improvements in the reliability of NDE, specifically in ultrasonic testing (UT), through training of examiners, and improved equipment and procedure development. However, the most significant improvements in UT were derived by moving from prescriptive requirements to performance based requirements. Even with these substantial improvements, NDE contains significant uncertainties and RI-ISI programs need to address and accommodate this factor. As part of the work that PNNL is conducting for the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, we are examining the impact of these uncertainties on the effectiveness of RI-ISI programs.
Doctor, Steven R.; Anderson, Michael T.
A component GARCH model with time varying weights
2007/19 A component GARCH model with time varying weights Luc Bauwens and Giuseppe Storti #12;CORE DISCUSSION PAPER 2007/19 A component GARCH model with time varying weights Luc BAUWENS1 and Giuseppe STORTI2 March2007 Abstract We present a novel GARCH model that accounts for time varying, state dependent
Nesterov, Yurii
Regulatory Roadmap Workshop for Federal Bulk Transmission Regulations...
Regulatory Roadmapping Pgower's picture Submitted by Pgower(45) Member 7 August, 2014 - 13:19 One-day workshop to review regulatory roadmaps for bulk transmission. Date:...
Energy Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval of...
Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval of the First United States Nuclear Plant Site in Over 30 Years Energy Praises the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Approval of the...
Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility...
from The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) on the Smart Grid RFI Comments from The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC)...
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information...
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart Grid Implementation Input US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Input to DOE Request for Information Smart...
Regulatory analysis technical evaluation handbook. Final report
The purpose of this Handbook is to provide guidance to the regulatory analyst to promote preparation of quality regulatory analysis documents and to implement the policies of the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG/BR-0058 Rev. 2). This Handbook expands upon policy concepts included in the NRC Guidelines and translates the six steps in preparing regulatory analyses into implementable methodologies for the analyst. It provides standardized methods of preparation and presentation of regulatory analyses, with the inclusion of input that will satisfy all backfit requirements and requirements of NRC`s Committee to Review Generic Requirements. Information on the objectives of the safety goal evaluation process and potential data sources for preparing a safety goal evaluation is also included. Consistent application of the methods provided here will result in more directly comparable analyses, thus aiding decision-makers in evaluating and comparing various regulatory actions. The handbook is being issued in loose-leaf format to facilitate revisions. NRC intends to periodically revise the handbook as new and improved guidance, data, and methods become available.
Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems
Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management is significant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Model, scenario and parameter uncertainties contribute. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Sequential procedure for quantifying uncertainty is proposed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Application of procedure is illustrated by a case-study. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.
Clavreul, Julie, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark); Guyonnet, Dominique [BRGM, ENAG BRGM-School, BP 6009, 3 Avenue C. Guillemin, 45060 Orleans Cedex (France); Christensen, Thomas H. [Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby (Denmark)
The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has published a Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The IUPAC Commission on Isotopic Abundance and Atomic Weight (CIAAW) began attaching uncertainty limits to their recommended values about forty years ago. CIAAW's method for determining and assigning uncertainties has evolved over time. We trace this evolution to their present method and their effort to incorporate the basic ISO/GUM procedures into evaluations of these uncertainties. We discuss some dilemma the CIAAW faces in their present method and whether it is consistent with the application of the ISO/GUM rules. We discuss the attempt to incorporate variations in measured isotope ratios, due to natural fractionation, into the ISO/GUM system. We make some observations about the inconsistent treatment in the incorporation of natural variations into recommended data and uncertainties. A recommendation for expressing atomic weight values using a tabulated range of values for various chemical elements is discussed.
Programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties
Accurate estimates of the volumes of contaminated soils or sediments are critical to effective program planning and to successfully designing and implementing remedial actions. Unfortunately, data available to support the pre-remedial design are often sparse and insufficient for accurately estimating contaminated soil volumes, resulting in significant uncertainty associated with these volume estimates. The uncertainty in the soil volume estimates significantly contributes to the uncertainty in the overall project cost estimates, especially since excavation and off-site disposal are the primary cost items in soil remedial action projects. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District's experience has been that historical contaminated soil volume estimates developed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) often underestimated the actual volume of subsurface contaminated soils requiring excavation during the course of a remedial activity. In response, the Buffalo District has adopted a variety of programmatic methods for addressing contaminated volume uncertainties. These include developing final status survey protocols prior to remedial design, explicitly estimating the uncertainty associated with volume estimates, investing in pre-design data collection to reduce volume uncertainties, and incorporating dynamic work strategies and real-time analytics in pre-design characterization and remediation activities. This paper describes some of these experiences in greater detail, drawing from the knowledge gained at Ashland 1, Ashland 2, Linde, and Rattlesnake Creek. In the case of Rattlesnake Creek, these approaches provided the Buffalo District with an accurate pre-design contaminated volume estimate and resulted in one of the first successful FUSRAP fixed-price remediation contracts for the Buffalo District. (authors)
Rieman, C.R.; Spector, H.L. [U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Buffalo District, Buffalo, NY (United States); Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L. [Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Science Div., IL (United States)
Uncertainty and error in computational simulations
The present paper addresses the question: ``What are the general classes of uncertainty and error sources in complex, computational simulations?`` This is the first step of a two step process to develop a general methodology for quantitatively estimating the global modeling and simulation uncertainty in computational modeling and simulation. The second step is to develop a general mathematical procedure for representing, combining and propagating all of the individual sources through the simulation. The authors develop a comprehensive view of the general phases of modeling and simulation. The phases proposed are: conceptual modeling of the physical system, mathematical modeling of the system, discretization of the mathematical model, computer programming of the discrete model, numerical solution of the model, and interpretation of the results. This new view is built upon combining phases recognized in the disciplines of operations research and numerical solution methods for partial differential equations. The characteristics and activities of each of these phases is discussed in general, but examples are given for the fields of computational fluid dynamics and heat transfer. They argue that a clear distinction should be made between uncertainty and error that can arise in each of these phases. The present definitions for uncertainty and error are inadequate and. therefore, they propose comprehensive definitions for these terms. Specific classes of uncertainty and error sources are then defined that can occur in each phase of modeling and simulation. The numerical sources of error considered apply regardless of whether the discretization procedure is based on finite elements, finite volumes, or finite differences. To better explain the broad types of sources of uncertainty and error, and the utility of their categorization, they discuss a coupled-physics example simulation.
Oberkampf, W.L.; Diegert, K.V.; Alvin, K.F.; Rutherford, B.M.
Uncertainty Analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling Event of the PBMR Reactor
This paper presents an uncertainty analysis for a De-pressurised Loss of Forced Cooling (DLOFC) event that was performed with the systems CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) code Flownex for the PBMR reactor. An uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the variation in maximum fuel, core barrel and reactor pressure vessel (RPV) temperature due to variations in model input parameters. Some of the input parameters that were varied are: thermo-physical properties of helium and the various solid materials, decay heat, neutron and gamma heating, pebble bed pressure loss, pebble bed Nusselt number and pebble bed bypass flows. The Flownex model of the PBMR reactor is a 2-dimensional axisymmetrical model. It is simplified in terms of geometry and some other input values. However, it is believed that the model adequately indicates the effect of changes in certain input parameters on the fuel temperature and other components during a DLOFC event. Firstly, a sensitivity study was performed where input variables were varied individually according to predefined uncertainty ranges and the results were sorted according to the effect on maximum fuel temperature. In the sensitivity study, only seven variables had a significant effect on the maximum fuel temperature (greater that 5 deg. C). The most significant are power distribution profile, decay heat, reflector properties and effective pebble bed conductivity. Secondly, Monte Carlo analyses were performed in which twenty variables were varied simultaneously within predefined uncertainty ranges. For a one-tailed 95% confidence level, the conservatism that should be added to the best estimate calculation of the maximum fuel temperature for a DLOFC was determined as 53 deg. C. This value will probably increase after some model refinements in the future. Flownex was found to be a valuable tool for uncertainly analyses, facilitating both sensitivity studies and Monte Carlo analyses. (authors)
Jansen van Rensburg, Pieter A.; Sage, Martin G. [PBMR, 1279 Mike Crawford Avenue, Centurion 0046 (South Africa)
Reliability and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
Presentation�given at the Federal Utility Partnership Working Group (FUPWG) Fall 2008 meeting�covers the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) strategic plan, the Federal Power Act (FPA), current energy security posture, and more.
Regulatory status of transgrafted plants is unclear
3. Graff GD, Wright BD, Bennett AB, Zilberman D. 2004. Ac-PIPRA, Davis; and A.B. Bennett is Profes- sor, Department ofL. Chi-Ham and Alan B. Bennett T he regulatory implications
Haroldsen, Victor M; Paulino, Gabriel; Chi-ham, Cecilia; Bennett, Alan B
Regulatory roles of endothelial cells in cancer
This thesis describes the biochemical regulatory impact of endothelial cells, the cells that line all blood vessels, in cancer. Our work draws from concepts in vascular repair and tissue engineering and extends the view ...
Franses, Joseph W. (Joseph Wang)
Evolution and statistics of biological regulatory networks
In this thesis, I study the process of evolution of the gene regulatory network in Escherichia coli. First, I characterize the portion of the network that has been documented, and then I simulate growth of the network. In ...
Chandalia, Juhi Kiran, 1979-
Accounting for Parameter Uncertainty in Reservoir Uncertainty Assessment: The Conditional Finite-Domain Approach
An important aim of modern geostatistical modeling is to quantify uncertainty in geological systems. Geostatistical modeling requires many input parameters. The input univariate distribution or histogram is perhaps the most important. A new method for assessing uncertainty in the histogram, particularly uncertainty in the mean, is presented. This method, referred to as the conditional finite-domain (CFD) approach, accounts for the size of the domain and the local conditioning data. It is a stochastic approach based on a multivariate Gaussian distribution. The CFD approach is shown to be convergent, design independent, and parameterization invariant. The performance of the CFD approach is illustrated in a case study focusing on the impact of the number of data and the range of correlation on the limiting uncertainty in the parameters. The spatial bootstrap method and CFD approach are compared. As the number of data increases, uncertainty in the sample mean decreases in both the spatial bootstrap and the CFD. Contrary to spatial bootstrap, uncertainty in the sample mean in the CFD approach decreases as the range of correlation increases. This is a direct result of the conditioning data being more correlated to unsampled locations in the finite domain. The sensitivity of the limiting uncertainty relative to the variogram and the variable limits are also discussed.
Babak, Olena, E-mail: email@example.com; Deutsch, Clayton V. [University of Alberta, Centre for Computational Geostatistics, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (Canada)], E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com
Natural Gas Regulatory Policy: Current Issues
NATURAL GAS REGULATORY roLICY: CURRENT ISSUES G. GAIL WATKINS Railroad Commission of Texas Austin, Texas ABSTRACT Many changes have occurred in recent months in both federal and state natural gas regulation. Those changes have increased... the options of industrial energy consumers for purchasing and moving natural gas. This panel viII discuss important developments in federal and state regulatory arenas and their impacts on purchasing options. Among the issues discussed viII be: 1...
Watkins, G.
Regulatory Burden RFI | Department of Energy
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of Inspector GeneralDepartment of Energy fromComments on NBPSiting Guidelines |Regulatory BurdenRegulatory
Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant
The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide transport in formations overlying the repository, and complementary cumulative distribution functions used in comparisons with regulatory standards (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B).
Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O'Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.
Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation
Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation
Dynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties
of the required treatment. There are mainly two types of maintenance activities: the preventive maintenance, whoseDynamic Scheduling of Maintenance Activities Under Uncertainties Fran¸cois Marmier, Christophe in maintenance services field where the different practical knowledges or skills are their working tools. We
Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty
Senior Center Network Redesign Under Demand Uncertainty Osman Y. ¨Ozaltin Department of Industrial of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA 02125-3393, USA, firstname.lastname@example.com Andrew J. Schaefer Department. In response, we propose a two-echelon network of senior centers. We for- mulate a two-stage stochastic
Schaefer, Andrew
Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast
regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006
Applying Calibration to Improve Uncertainty Assessment
that uncertainty can be assessed more reliably through look-backs and calibration, i.e., comparing actual results to probabilistic predictions over time. While many recognize the importance of look-backs, calibration is seldom practiced in industry. I believe a...
Fondren, Mark Edward
Bayesian Environmetrics: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis
(joint work with Bruno Mendes) Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics University of California and analysis of variance tools provide sensitivity analysis insight. -- Model uncertainty audit shows, as an energy source, has been employed in the United States and Europe for more than 50 years, and yet
Draper, David
Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy
Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy Jonathan Rougier University of Bristol, UK Michel1.tex. 1 Introduction This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical
Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty
Logic - Applications Many everyday applications use Fuzzy Logic control Microwaves ABS brakes Camera Huber 2011 6 Fuzzy Inference (Control) Fuzzy Logic uses logic inference rules and defuzzification© Manfred Huber 2011 1 Reasoning with Uncertainty Fuzzy Logic #12;© Manfred Huber 2011 2 Fuzzy
Huber, Manfred
Stochastic Reduced Basis Methods for Uncertainty Quantification
Turbine Blades In general, stochastic analysis (using SRBM) of any physical system involves two main steps the variability in the performance of a turbine blade in the presence of uncertainty. These blades operate variability in material properties and boundary condi- tions. Given a numerical solution of the set of SPDEs
S�bester, Andr�s
) Office of General Counsel Markets, Tariffs & Rates Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 888 FirstUNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION 18 CFR Chapter I (Docket No. RM05 Energy Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Notice of Inquiry (NOI). SUMMARY: The Federal Energy Regulatory
Ultrasonic liquid-level detector for varying temperature and pressure environments
An ultrasonic liquid level detector for use in varying temperature and pressure environments, such as a pressurized water nuclear reactor vessel, is provided. The detector employs ultrasonic extensional and torsional waves launched in a multiplexed alternating sequence into a common sensor. The sensor is a rectangular cross section stainless steel rod which extends into the liquid medium whose level is to be detected. The sensor temperature derived from the extensional wave velocity measurements is used to compensate for the temperature dependence of the torsional wave velocity measurements which are also level dependent. The torsional wave velocity measurements of a multiple reflection sensor then provide a measurement of liquid level over a range of several meters with a small uncertainty over a temperature range of 20 to 250/sup 0/C and pressures up to 15 MPa.
Anderson, R.L.; Miller, G.N.
FORMALISM FOR INCLUSION OF MEASURED REACTION CROSS SECTIONS IN STELLAR RATES INCLUDING UNCERTAINTIES AND ITS APPLICATION TO NEUTRON CAPTURE IN THE s-PROCESS
A general formalism to include experimental reaction cross sections into calculations of stellar rates is presented. It also allows us to assess the maximally possible reduction of uncertainties in the stellar rates by experiments. As an example for the application of the procedure, stellar neutron capture reactivities from KADoNiS v0.3 are revised and the remaining uncertainties shown. Many of the uncertainties in the stellar rates are larger than those obtained experimentally. This has important consequences for s-process models and the interpretation of meteoritic data because it allows the rates of some reactions to vary within a larger range than previously assumed.
Rauscher, Thomas [Department of Physics, University of Basel, CH-4056 Basel (Switzerland)
Memory Resilient Gain-scheduled State-Feedback Control of Uncertain LTI/LPV Systems with Time-Varying Delays
The stabilization of uncertain LTI/LPV time delay systems with time varying delays by state-feedback controllers is addressed. At the difference of other works in the literature, the proposed approach allows for the synthesis of resilient controllers with respect to uncertainties on the implemented delay. It is emphasized that such controllers unify memoryless and exact-memory controllers usually considered in the literature. The solutions to the stability and stabilization problems are expressed in terms of LMIs which allow to check the stability of the closed-loop system for a given bound on the knowledge error and even optimize the uncertainty radius under some performance constraints; in this paper, the $\\mathcal{H}_\\infty$ performance measure is considered. The interest of the approach is finally illustrated through several examples.
Briat, Corentin; Lafay, Jean-Fran�ois; 10.1016/j.sysconle.2010.06.004
Regulatory Closure Options for the Residue in the Hanford Site Single-Shell Tanks
Liquid, mixed, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) has been stored in 149 single-shell tanks (SSTS) located in tank farms on the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site. The DOE is developing technologies to retrieve as much remaining HLW as technically possible prior to physically closing the tank farms. In support of the Hanford Tanks Initiative, Sandia National Laboratories has addressed the requirements for the regulatory closure of the radioactive component of any SST residue that may remain after physical closure. There is significant uncertainty about the end state of each of the 149 SSTS; that is, the nature and amount of wastes remaining in the SSTS after retrieval is uncertain. As a means of proceeding in the face of these uncertainties, this report links possible end-states with associated closure options. Requirements for disposal of HLW and low-level radioactive waste (LLW) are reviewed in detail. Incidental waste, which is radioactive waste produced incidental to the further processing of HLW, is then discussed. If the low activity waste (LAW) fraction from the further processing of HLW is determined to be incidental waste, then DOE can dispose of that incidental waste onsite without a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRC). The NRC has proposed three Incidental Waste Criteria for determining if a LAW fraction is incidental waste. One of the three Criteria is that the LAW fraction should not exceed the NRC's Class C limits.
Cochran, J.R. Shyr, L.J.
Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis
Environmental Assessment/Regulatory Impact Review/Final Regulatory Flexibility Analysis (EA . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.0 NEPA REQUIREMENTS: ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE ALTERNATIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1 Environmental Impacts of the Alternatives . . . . . 15 2.2 Whale watching activity in Alaska
Representation of analysis results involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainty.
Procedures are described for the representation of results in analyses that involve both aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty, with aleatory uncertainty deriving from an inherent randomness in the behavior of the system under study and epistemic uncertainty deriving from a lack of knowledge about the appropriate values to use for quantities that are assumed to have fixed but poorly known values in the context of a specific study. Aleatory uncertainty is usually represented with probability and leads to cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) or complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs) for analysis results of interest. Several mathematical structures are available for the representation of epistemic uncertainty, including interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory and probability theory. In the presence of epistemic uncertainty, there is not a single CDF or CCDF for a given analysis result. Rather, there is a family of CDFs and a corresponding family of CCDFs that derive from epistemic uncertainty and have an uncertainty structure that derives from the particular uncertainty structure (i.e., interval analysis, possibility theory, evidence theory, probability theory) used to represent epistemic uncertainty. Graphical formats for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in families of CDFs and CCDFs are investigated and presented for the indicated characterizations of epistemic uncertainty.
Johnson, Jay Dean (ProStat, Mesa, AZ); Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Sallaberry, Cedric J.
On the modeling of time-varying delays
This thesis is an effort to develop generalized dynamic models for systems with time-varying time delays. Unlike the simple time-delay model characterized by a transportation lag in the case of a fixed time delay, time-varying delays exhibit quite...
Shah, Chirag Laxmikant
Characterized ideal LC circuit Charge, current and voltage vary sinusoidally
resistance to LC circuit Oscillations become damped Charge, current and voltage still vary sinusoidally Oscillations Draw phasors for voltages of R, C and L at same time t Orient VR, VL, & VC phasors relativeReview Characterized ideal LC circuit Charge, current and voltage vary sinusoidally Added
Bertulani, Carlos A. - Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A&M University
Whitening for Photometric Comparison of Smooth Surfaces under Varying Illumination
produce lighting insensitive im- age comparisons. While our Gaussian assumption is a simplificationWhitening for Photometric Comparison of Smooth Surfaces under Varying Illumination Margarita the problem of image comparison in order to match smooth surfaces under varying illumination. In a smooth
Lindenbaum, Michael
Time varying voltage combustion control and diagnostics sensor
A time-varying voltage is applied to an electrode, or a pair of electrodes, of a sensor installed in a fuel nozzle disposed adjacent the combustion zone of a continuous combustion system, such as of the gas turbine engine type. The time-varying voltage induces a time-varying current in the flame which is measured and used to determine flame capacitance using AC electrical circuit analysis. Flame capacitance is used to accurately determine the position of the flame from the sensor and the fuel/air ratio. The fuel and/or air flow rate (s) is/are then adjusted to provide reduced flame instability problems such as flashback, combustion dynamics and lean blowout, as well as reduced emissions. The time-varying voltage may be an alternating voltage and the time-varying current may be an alternating current.
Chorpening, Benjamin T. (Morgantown, WV); Thornton, Jimmy D. (Morgantown, WV); Huckaby, E. David (Morgantown, WV); Fincham, William (Fairmont, WV)
Challenges in the face of uncertainty
Opinions of the Interim Director of the Global Environment Program of Cornell University are presented. The focus is on obstacles to the implementation by policymakers of actions needed to address climate change. A major obstacle preventing action is stated to be the uncertainties involved in climate predictions. It is proposed that rapid, comprehensive action is required to meet the challenges posed by climate predictions, regardless of the inherent uncertainties. Aspects of future climate which are relatively certain are discussed, including continued greenhouse effects for the next several decades, a greater warming effect at higher altitudes, more warming in the winter, and linkage of all other aspects of climate to temperature changes. Aspects of climatic change which pose particular problems regarding predictability are also discussed.
Oglesby, R.T. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
Entropic uncertainties for joint quantum measurements
We investigate the uncertainty associated with a joint quantum measurement of two spin components of a spin-(1/2) particle and quantify this in terms of entropy. We consider two entropic quantities, the joint entropy and the sum of the marginal entropies, and obtain lower bounds for each of these quantities. For the case of joint measurements where we measure each spin observable equally well, these lower bounds are tight.
Brougham, Thomas [Department of Physics, FJFI, CVUT, Brehova 7, 115 19 Praha 1 (Czech Republic); SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom); Andersson, Erika [SUPA, Department of Physics, School of EPS, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh EH14 4As (United Kingdom); Barnett, Stephen M. [SUPA, Department of Physics, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G4 ONG (United Kingdom)
History matching and uncertainty quantificiation using sampling method
approach to uncertainty quantification for the nonlinear inverse problems. First, we propose a two-stage MCMC approach using sensitivities for quantifying uncertainty in history matching geological models. In the first stage, we compute the acceptance...
Ma, Xianlin
A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change
In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources ...
Monier, Erwan
Adaptive control of hypersonic vehicles in presence of actuation uncertainties
The thesis develops a new class of adaptive controllers that guarantee global stability in presence of actuation uncertainties. Actuation uncertainties culminate to linear plants with a partially known input matrix B. ...
Somanath, Amith
Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and
Uncertainties in Energy Consumption Introduced by Building Operations and Weather for a Medium between predicted and actual building energy consumption can be attributed to uncertainties introduced in energy consumption due to actual weather and building operational practices, using a simulation
Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response
To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in ...
Webster, Mort David.; Forest, Chris Eliot.; Reilly, John M.; Babiker, Mustafa H.M.; Kicklighter, David W.; Mayer, Monika.; Prinn, Ronald G.; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Stone, Peter H.; Wang, Chien.
Application Form Certificate Program in Risk, Uncertainty, and Decision Analysis
of Uncertainty Analysis (3 credits): Nuclear Engineering 602 Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers of Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison Personal Information: Name: __________________________ Department of Engineering Physics, College of Engineering, UW-Madison, 147 Engineering Research Building, 1500 Engineering
Van Veen, Barry D.
Generalized Uncertainty Principle: Approaches and Applications
We review highlights from string theory, black hole physics and doubly special relativity and some "thought" experiments which were suggested to probe the shortest distance and/or the maximum momentum at the Planck scale. The models which are designed to implement the minimal length scale and/or the maximum momentum in different physical systems are analysed entered the literature as the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP). We compare between them. The existence of a minimal length and a maximum momentum accuracy is preferred by various physical observations. Furthermore, assuming modified dispersion relation allows for a wide range of applications in estimating, for example, the inflationary parameters, Lorentz invariance violation, black hole thermodynamics, Saleker-Wigner inequalities, entropic nature of the gravitational laws, Friedmann equations, minimal time measurement and thermodynamics of the high-energy collisions. One of the higher-order GUP approaches gives predictions for the minimal length uncertainty. Another one predicts a maximum momentum and a minimal length uncertainty, simultaneously. An extensive comparison between the different GUP approaches is summarized. We also discuss the GUP impacts on the equivalence principles including the universality of the gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action and on the kinetic energy of composite system. The concern about the compatibility with the equivalence principles, the universality of gravitational redshift and the free fall and law of reciprocal action should be addressed. We conclude that the value of the GUP parameters remain a puzzle to be verified.
Abdel Nasser Tawfik; Abdel Magied Diab
Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area
This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow and transport modeling and illustrate the benefits of the methodology I providing better estimates of predictive uncertiay8, quantitative results for use in assessing risk, and an improved understanding of the system behavior and the limitations of the models.
Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.
Informatively optimal levels of confidence for mesurement uncertainty
Oct 13, 2011 ... netvision.net.il) ... "Informatively optimal combining, expanding, and establishing traceability in evaluating measurement uncertainties".
David Kisets
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - Source
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
and regulatory uncertainties vary across options for new capacity.... Read full section Nuclear power plant capacity grows slowly through uprates and new builds.... Read full...
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest, 1991 edition
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest provides a summary of information about the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), NRC's regulatory responsibilities, and the areas NRC licenses. This digest is a compilation of NRC-related data and is designed to provide a quick reference to major facts about the agency and the industry it regulates. In general, the data cover 1975 through 1990, with exceptions noted. For operating US commercial nuclear power reactors, information on generating capacity and average capacity factor is obtained from Monthly Operating Reports submitted to the NRC directly by the licensee. This information is reviewed for consistency only. No independent validation and/or verification is performed by the NRC. For detailed and complete information about tables and figures, refer to the source publications. This digest is published annually for the general use of the NRC staff and is available to the public. 30 figs., 12 tabs.
Olive, K L
Trio: A System for Data, Uncertainty, and Lineage
or resolve uncertainty #12;13 Our Goal Develop a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all first-class interrelated concepts With all the "usual" DBMS a new kind of database management system (DBMS) in which: 1. Data 2. Uncertainty 3. Lineage are all
Bejerano, Gill
Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov
Volume Rendering Data with Uncertainty Information Suzana Djurcilov , Kwansik Kim , Pierre F. J uncertainty information in direct volume rendering. The goal is to produce vol- ume rendered images the uncertainty information directly into the volume rendering equation. The second method involves post
Robinson, Allan R.
INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO DAM SAFETY RISK Sanjay S. Chauhan1
of Reclamation are using risk assessment as a decision support tool. This paper summarizes an approach to incorporating input uncertainties into risk analysis model. Input uncertainties are captured by using for uncertainty analysis in dam safety risk assessment, and demonstrates some useful formats for presenting
Chauhan, Sanjay S.
antigen expression varies: Topics by E-print Network
Ikeda; Kazuo Katoh; Hiroyuki Koshimoto; Yoshihiro Yoshihara; Kensaku Mori 1993-01-01 10 NANO EXPRESS Open Access AuPd core-shell nanoparticles with varied hollow Energy Storage,...
Fractal geometry predicts varying body size scaling relationships
.............................................................. Fractal geometry predicts varying scaling based on fractal resource distributions, in which resource encounter rates are a function of body that are multiples of 1/4, which have been recently explained from the fractal branching architecture of organisms4
Minnesota, University of
Use of Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis to Support M&VDecisions in ESPCs
Measurement and Verification (M&V) is a critical elementof an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) - without M&V, thereisno way to confirm that the projected savings in an ESPC are in factbeing realized. For any given energy conservation measure in an ESPC,there are usually several M&V choices, which will vary in terms ofmeasurement uncertainty, cost, and technical feasibility. Typically,M&V decisions are made almost solely based on engineering judgmentand experience, with little, if any, quantitative uncertainty analysis(QUA). This paper describes the results of a pilot project initiated bythe Department of Energy s Federal Energy Management Program to explorethe use of Monte-Carlo simulation to assess savings uncertainty andthereby augment the M&V decision-making process in ESPCs. The intentwas to use QUA selectively in combination with heuristic knowledge, inorder to obtain quantitative estimates of the savings uncertainty withoutthe burden of a comprehensive "bottoms-up" QUA. This approach was used toanalyze the savings uncertainty in an ESPC for a large federal agency.The QUA was seamlessly integrated into the ESPC development process andthe incremental effort was relatively small with user-friendly tools thatare commercially available. As the case study illustrates, in some casesthe QUA simply confirms intuitive or qualitative information, while inother cases, it provides insight that suggests revisiting the M&Vplan. The case study also showed that M&V decisions should beinformed by the portfolio risk diversification. By providing quantitativeuncertainty information, QUA can effectively augment the M&Vdecision-making process as well as the overall ESPC financialanalysis.
Mathew, Paul A.; Koehling, Erick; Kumar, Satish
Conservation law for Uncertainty relations and quantum correlations
Uncertainty principle, a fundamental principle in quantum physics, has been studied intensively via various uncertainty inequalities. Here we derive an uncertainty equality in terms of linear entropy, and show that the sum of uncertainty in complementary local bases is equal to a fixed quantity. We also introduce a measure of correlation in a bipartite state, and show that the sum of correlations revealed in a full set of complementary bases is equal to the total correlation in the bipartite state. The surprising simple equality relations we obtain imply that the study on uncertainty principle and correlations can rely on the use of linear entropy, a simple quantity that is very convenient for calculation.
Zhihao Ma; Shengjun Wu; Zhihua Chen
Methodology for characterizing modeling and discretization uncertainties in computational simulation
This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.
A linear time-varying simulation of the respiratory system
A LINEAR TIME-VARYING SIMULATION OF THE RESPIRATORY SYSTEM A Thesis by OSCAR RENATO HERNANDEZ Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE... August 1993 Major Subject: Health Physics A LINEAR TIME-VARYING SIMULATION OF THE RESPIRATORY SYSTEM A Thesis by OSCAR RENATO HERNANDEZ Approved as to style and content by: Wes y E. Bolch (Chair of Committee) Dan Hig tower (Member) ohn...
Hernandez, Oscar Renato
Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems.
The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems.
Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.
Trawler: de novo regulatory motif discovery pipeline
Trawler: de novo regulatory motif discovery pipeline for chromatin immunoprecipitation Laurence, the fastest computational pipeline to date, to efficiently discover over-represented motifs in chromatin present the Trawler pipeline (Fig. 1a) that attempts the de novo identification of all over
Cai, Long
A Comparison of International Regulatory Organizations and
A Comparison of International Regulatory Organizations and Licensing Procedures for New Nuclear the safety regulation and the licensing of new nuclear power plants. The paper considers both design safety approval and issues of site licensing. Advice from international organisations is summarised. Nuclear power
Aickelin, Uwe
Regulatory Promotion of Emergent CCS Technology
Despite the growing inevitability of climate change and the attendant need for mitigation strategies, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) has yet to gain much traction in the United States. Recent regulatory proposals by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), limited in scope to new-build power plants, represent the only significant policy initiative intended to mandate diffusion of CCS technology. Phase I of this Project assessed barriers to CCS deployment as prioritized by the CCS community. That research concluded that there were four primary barriers: (1) cost, (2) lack of a carbon price, (3) liability, and (4) lack of a comprehensive regulatory regime. Phase II of this Project, as presented in this Report, assesses potential regulatory models for CCS and examines where those models address the hurdles to diffusing CCS technology identified in Phase I. It concludes (1) that a CCS-specific but flexible standard, such as a technology performance standard or a very particular type of market-based regulation, likely will promote CCS diffusion, and (2) that these policies cannot work alone, but rather, should be combined with other measures, such as liability limits and a comprehensive CCS regulatory regime.
Davies, Lincoln; Uchitel, Kirsten; Johnson, David
Uncertainty Budget Analysis for Dimensional Inspection Processes (U)
This paper is intended to provide guidance and describe how to prepare an uncertainty analysis of a dimensional inspection process through the utilization of an uncertainty budget analysis. The uncertainty analysis is stated in the same methodology as that of the ISO GUM standard for calibration and testing. There is a specific distinction between how Type A and Type B uncertainty analysis is used in a general and specific process. All theory and applications are utilized to represent both a generalized approach to estimating measurement uncertainty and how to report and present these estimations for dimensional measurements in a dimensional inspection process. The analysis of this uncertainty budget shows that a well-controlled dimensional inspection process produces a conservative process uncertainty, which can be attributed to the necessary assumptions in place for best possible results.
Valdez, Lucas M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Gravitational tests of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle
We compute the corrections to the Schwarzschild metric necessary to reproduce the Hawking temperature derived from a Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP), so that the GUP deformation parameter is directly linked to the deformation of the metric. Using this modified Schwarzschild metric, we compute corrections to the standard General Relativistic predictions for the light deflection and perihelion precession, both for planets in the solar system and for binary pulsars. This analysis allows us to set bounds for the GUP deformation parameter from well-known astronomical measurements.
Fabio Scardigli; Roberto Casadio
EPR Steering Inequalities from Entropic Uncertainty Relations
We use entropic uncertainty relations to formulate inequalities that witness Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering correlations in diverse quantum systems. We then use these inequalities to formulate symmetric EPR-steering inequalities using the mutual information. We explore the differing natures of the correlations captured by one-way and symmetric steering inequalities, and examine the possibility of exclusive one-way steerability in two-qubit states. Furthermore, we show that steering inequalities can be extended to generalized positive operator valued measures (POVMs), and we also derive hybrid-steering inequalities between alternate degrees of freedom.
James Schneeloch; Curtis J. Broadbent; Stephen P. Walborn; Eric G. Cavalcanti; John C. Howell
Uncertainties in our understanding of energy conservation
There is wide and growing agreement on the potential benefits of energy-conservation measures. However, there is considerable uncertainty over the best means to obtain these benefits. Decision makers lack sufficient information to decide on the proper roles for private enterprise and for governments. The best mix of government activities is not known. Unfortunately, the data currently available are not adequate for dealing with these important issues. This paper discusses existing and emerging data sources that deal with these questions that can help improve our understanding of energy use and conservation. Development of comprehensive and accurate data bases is crucial to the improvement and intelligent application of energy-use models.
Hirst, E.
Integrative approaches for systematic reconstruction of regulatory circuits in mammals
The reconstruction of regulatory networks is one of the most challenging tasks in systems biology. Although some models for inferring regulatory networks can make useful predictions about the wiring and mechanisms of ...
Santos Botelho Oliveira Leite, Ana Paula
US Department of Energy�s Regulatory Negotiations Convening...
Regulatory Negotiations Convening on Commercial Certification for Heating, Ventilating, Air-Conditioning, and Refrigeration Equipment regnegonacconfidentiality.pdf More...
Uncertainty evaluation in transition temperature measurements
The pressure vessel surveillance program is mainly based on the transition temperature change assessment, a change which is induced by neutron irradiation. Uncertainties in Charpy test measurements are well known; however, the authors are less familiar with uncertainties due to general procedures governing experiments, which can be significant and therefore must be taken into account. In fact, procedures specify neither the number of specimens needed to obtain a transition curve, nor the choice of test temperatures, nor the fitting method for the transition curve. A study has been conducted to determine the influence of the experimental procedure on the accuracy of transition temperature determination, and the initial results are presented in this paper. Two EDF laboratories performed Charpy tests on the surveillance program reference metal, using 8, 16, 24, 32 and 64 specimens to evaluate how the number of specimens affects the transition temperature. The influence of the scatter of mechanical properties has also been studied at two levels of irradiation. The authors have evaluated the effect of different sampling strategies and investigated a new fitting method, which is based on a simultaneous fitting of all curves with common constraints on parameters.
Brillaud, C. [Electricite de France, Avoine (France); Augendre, H. [Electricite de France, Clamart (France); Bethmont, M. [Electricite de France, Ecuelles (France)
IPA Phase 2 sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
The NRC`s Phase 2 Iterative Performance Assessment (IPA) used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate uncertainty for up to 297 independent variables and nine scenarios through computer models representing the performance of the Yucca Mountain repository. The NRC staff explored the use of a number of parametric and non-parametric tests and graphical methods to display the probabilistic results. Parametric tests included regression and differential analysis. Non-parametric tests included the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Sign test. Graphical methods included the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF), hair diagram, scatter plots, histograms and box plots. Multiple linear regression of raw, ranked, standardized and other transformed variables determined the gross sensitivity over the parameter space. CCDF`s were also generated from subsets of the 400 vector sets formed by screening the vectors according to values of derived variables related to the behavior of the engineered and natural systems. While no single statistical or graphical technique proved to be useful in all cases, diverse methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified the same important input parameters.
Colten-Bradley, V.; Codell, R.; Byrne, M.R. [Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States)
Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements
The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.
May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C; Park, H; Schneider, M
Safety research programs sponsored by Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research: Quarterly progress report, July 1-September 30, 1986
This progress report will describe current activities and technical progress in the programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory sponsored by the Division of Accident Evaluation, Division of Engineering Technology, and Division of Risk Analysis and Operations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The projects reported are the following: High Temperature Reactor Research, SSC code improvements, Thermal-Hydraulic Reactor Safety Experiments, Thermodynamic Core-Concrete Interaction Experiments and Analysis, Plant Analyzer, Code Assessment and Application, Code Maintenance (RAMONA-3B), MELCOR Verification and Benchmarking, Source Term Code Package Verification and Benchmarking, Uncertainty Analysis of the Source Term; Stress Corrosion Cracking of PWR Steam Generator Tubing, Soil-Structure Interaction Evaluation and Structural Benchmarks, Identification of Age Related Failure Modes; Application of HRA/PRA Results to Support Resolution of Generic Safety Issues Involving Human Performance, Protective Action Decisionmaking, Rebaseling of Risk for Zion, Containment Performance Design Objective, and Operational Safety Reliability Research.
Bari, R.A.; Bezler, P.; Boccio, J.L.; Ginsberg, T.; Greene, G.A.; Guppy, J.G.; Hall, R.E.; Hofmayer, C.H.; Khatib-Rahbar, H.; Luckas, W.J. Jr.
Pursuing Energy Efficiency as a Hedge against Carbon Regulatory Risks: Current Resource Planning Practices in the West
Uncertainty surrounding the nature and timing of future carbon regulations poses a fundamental and far-reaching financial risk for electric utilities and their ratepayers. Long-term resource planning provides a potential framework within which utilities can assess carbon regulatory risk and evaluate options for mitigating exposure to this risk through investments in energy efficiency and other low-carbon resources. In this paper, we examine current resource planning practices related to managing carbon regulatory risk, based on a comparative analysis of the most-recent long-term resource plans filed by fifteen major utilities in the Western U.S. First, we compare the assumptions and methods used by utilities to assess carbon regulatory risk and to evaluate energy efficiency as a risk mitigation option. Although most utilities have made important strides in beginning to address carbon regulatory risk within their resource plan, we also identify a number of opportunities for improvement and offer recommendations for resource planners and state regulators to consider. We also summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by the fifteen Western utilities, highlighting the contribution of energy efficiency and its impact on the carbon intensity of utilities' proposed resource strategies. Energy efficiency and renewables are the dominant low-carbon resources included in utilities' preferred portfolios. Across the fifteen utilities, energy efficiency constitutes anywhere from 6percent to almost 50percent of the preferred portfolio energy resources, and represents 22percent of all incremental resources in aggregate.
Barbose, Galen; Wiser, Ryan; Phadke, Amol; Goldman, Charles
Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the RegionalUncertainty in the Regional
Page 1 Construction and AvailabilityConstruction and Availability Uncertainty in the Regional and Technology Availability Construction Costs Economic Retirement Variable Capacity for Existing Units #12;Page to construction power plants or to take other action May include policies for particular resources "Scenario
Conservation and Evolution of Cis-Regulatory Systems
Conservation and Evolution of Cis-Regulatory Systems in Ascomycete Fungi Audrey P. Gasch1¤*, Alan M expression regulation evolves. To investigate this, we systematically explored the conservation of regulatory, indicating that those regulatory systems have been conserved in multiple ascomycete species. In addition
Gasch, Audrey P.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January/February 1995
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives impacting environmental, health, and safety management responsibilities. the table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Mayer, S.J.; Salk, M.S.
Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies
The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.
Lin, Guang; Engel, David W.; Eslinger, Paul W.
@ GW Regulatory Studies Center | www.RegulatoryStudies.gwu.edu | Follow us @RegStudies DOE's Proposed Commercial Refrigeration
equipment, establishing maximum allowable energy usage standards as a function of either refrigerated volume.RegulatoryStudies.gwu.edu | Follow us @RegStudies Source: Department of Energy's Technical Support Document for the Proposed Rule@ GW Regulatory Studies Center | www.RegulatoryStudies.gwu.edu | Follow us @RegStudies DOE
Schmitt, William R.
Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint
One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.
E-Print Network 3.0 - abrogates regulatory function Sample Search...
actions that are functionally equivalent... : Regulatory Taking Challenges to Local Environmental Regulation Environmental Practicum Memo: Regulatory... , how should a...
Papers on the nuclear regulatory dilemma
The four papers contained in this report are titled: (1) From Prescriptive to Performance-Based Regulation of Nuclear Power; (2) Nuclear Regulatory Reform: A Technology-Forcing Approach; (3) Improving the Regulation of Nuclear Power; and (4) Science and Its Limits: The Regulators' Dilemma. These four papers investigate issues relating to the long-term regulation of nuclear energy. They were prepared as part of the Institute for Energy Analysis' project on Nuclear Regulation funded by a grant from the Mellon Foundation and a smaller grant by the MacArthur Foundation. Originally this work was to be supplemented by contributions from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and from the Department of Energy. These contributions were not forthcoming, and as a result the scope of our investigations was more restricted than we had originally planned.
Barkenbus, J.N.; Freeman, S.D.; Weinberg, A.M.
Capturing Data Uncertainty in High-Volume Stream Processing
We present the design and development of a data stream system that captures data uncertainty from data collection to query processing to final result generation. Our system focuses on data that is naturally modeled as continuous random variables. For such data, our system employs an approach grounded in probability and statistical theory to capture data uncertainty and integrates this approach into high-volume stream processing. The first component of our system captures uncertainty of raw data streams from sensing devices. Since such raw streams can be highly noisy and may not carry sufficient information for query processing, our system employs probabilistic models of the data generation process and stream-speed inference to transform raw data into a desired format with an uncertainty metric. The second component captures uncertainty as data propagates through query operators. To efficiently quantify result uncertainty of a query operator, we explore a variety of techniques based on probability and statisti...
Diao, Yanlei; Liu, Anna; Peng, Liping; Sutton, Charles; Tran, Thanh; Zink, Michael
Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.
Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.
Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)
Diffusion of irreversible energy technologies under uncertainty
This paper presents a model of technology diffusion is consistent with characteristics of participants in most energy markets. Whereas the models used most widely for empirical research are based on the assumption that the extended delays in adoption of cost-saving innovations are the result of either lack of knowledge about the new processes or heterogeneity across potential adopters, the model presented in this paper is based on the strategic behavior by firms. The strategic interdependence of the firms` decisions is rooted in spillover effects associated with an inability to exclude others from the learning-by-doing acquired when a firm implements a new technology. The model makes extensive use of recent developments in investment theory as it relates irreversible investments under uncertainty.
Cacallo, J.D.; Sutherland, R.J.
Generalized uncertainty principle and black hole thermodynamics
We study the Schwarzschild and Reissner-Nordstr\\"{o}m black hole thermodynamics using the simplest form of the generalized uncertainty principle (GUP) proposed in the literature. The expressions for the mass-temperature relation, heat capacity and entropy are obtained in both cases from which the critical and remnant masses are computed. Our results are exact and reveal that these masses are identical and larger than the so called singular mass for which the thermodynamics quantities become ill-defined. The expression for the entropy reveals the well known area theorem in terms of the horizon area in both cases upto leading order corrections from GUP. The area theorem written in terms of a new variable which can be interpreted as the reduced horizon area arises only when the computation is carried out to the next higher order correction from GUP.
Sunandan Gangopadhyay; Abhijit Dutta; Anirban Saha
Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII genes
The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the
Coruzzi, Gloria M. (New York, NY); Lam, Hon-Ming (Hong Kong, HK); Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun (Woodside, NY)
Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.
Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project %23170979, entitled %22Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties%22, which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.
Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.
The Top Mass: Interpretation and Theoretical Uncertainties
Currently the most precise LHC measurements of the top quark mass are determinations of the top quark mass parameter of Monte-Carlo (MC) event generators reaching uncertainties of well below $1$ GeV. However, there is an additional theoretical problem when using the MC top mass $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions, because a rigorous relation of $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ to a renormalized field theory mass is, at the very strict level, absent. In this talk I show how - nevertheless - some concrete statements on $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be deduced assuming that the MC generator behaves like a rigorous first principles QCD calculator for the observables that are used for the analyses. I give simple conceptual arguments showing that in this context $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ can be interpreted like the mass of a heavy-light top meson, and that there is a conversion relation to field theory top quark masses that requires a non-perturbative input. The situation is in analogy to B physics where a similar relation exists between experimental B meson masses and field theory bottom masses. The relation gives a prescription how to use $m_t^{\\rm MC}$ as an input for theoretical predictions in perturbative QCD. The outcome is that at this time an additional uncertainty of about $1$ GeV has to be accounted for. I discuss limitations of the arguments I give and possible ways to test them, or even to improve the current situation.
Andr� H. Hoang
Plant nitrogen regulatory P-PII polypeptides
The present invention generally relates to plant nitrogen regulatory PII gene (hereinafter P-PII gene), a gene involved in regulating plant nitrogen metabolism. The invention provides P-PII nucleotide sequences, expression constructs comprising said nucleotide sequences, and host cells and plants having said constructs and, optionally expressing the P-PII gene from said constructs. The invention also provides substantially pure P-PII proteins. The P-PII nucleotide sequences and constructs of the invention may be used to engineer organisms to overexpress wild-type or mutant P-PII regulatory protein. Engineered plants that overexpress or underexpress P-PII regulatory protein may have increased nitrogen assimilation capacity. Engineered organisms may be used to produce P-PII proteins which, in turn, can be used for a variety of purposes including in vitro screening of herbicides. P-PII nucleotide sequences have additional uses as probes for isolating additional genomic clones having the promoters of P-PII gene. P-PII promoters are light- and/or sucrose-inducible and may be advantageously used in genetic engineering of plants.
Coruzzi, Gloria M.; Lam, Hon-Ming; Hsieh, Ming-Hsiun
Time varying ISI model for nonlinear interference noise
We show that the effect of nonlinear interference in WDM systems is equivalent to slowly varying inter-symbol-interference (ISI), and hence its cancellation can be carried out by means of adaptive linear filtering. We characterize the ISI coefficients and discuss the potential gain following from their cancellation.
Dar, Ronen; Mecozzi, Antonio; Shtaif, Mark
ORIGINAL PAPER Effects of varying thinning regimes on carbon uptake,
, a shortage of water may also affect its productivity (Bergh et al. 1999, 2005). The water shortage implies to the increasing soil water deficit, without management. � Materials and methods A process-based ecosystem model with varying soil water availability under the changing climate. � Results and discussion We found
Paris-Sud XI, Universit� de
Mutual information in time-varying biochemical systems
Cells must continuously sense and respond to time-varying environmental stimuli. These signals are transmitted and processed by biochemical signalling networks. However, the biochemical reactions making up these networks are intrinsically noisy, which limits the reliability of intracellular signalling. Here we use information theory to characterise the reliability of transmission of time-varying signals through elementary biochemical reactions in the presence of noise. We calculate the mutual information for both instantaneous measurements and trajectories of biochemical systems for a Gaussian model. Our results indicate that the same network can have radically different characteristics for the transmission of instantaneous signals and trajectories. For trajectories, the ability of a network to respond to changes in the input signal is determined by the timing of reaction events, and is independent of the correlation time of the output of the network. We also study how reliably signals on different time-scales can be transmitted by considering the frequency-dependent coherence and gain-to-noise ratio. We find that a detector that does not consume the ligand molecule upon detection can more reliably transmit slowly varying signals, while an absorbing detector can more reliably transmit rapidly varying signals. Furthermore, we find that while one reaction may more reliably transmit information than another when considered in isolation, when placed within a signalling cascade the relative performance of the two reactions can be reversed. This means that optimising signal transmission at a single level of a signalling cascade can reduce signalling performance for the cascade as a whole.
Filipe Tostevin; Pieter Rein ten Wolde
Turbo Space-Time Codes with Time Varying Linear Transformations
1 Turbo Space-Time Codes with Time Varying Linear Transformations Hangjun Chen and Alexander 07102 Email: {hangjun.chen; firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract Turbo space-time codes with symbols in this paper. It is shown that turbo codes with TVLT achieve full diversity gain and do not require exhaustive
Haimovich, Alexander
BLIND ITERATIVE RESTORATION OF IMAGES WITH SPATIALLY-VARYING BLUR John Bardsley Stuart Jefferies (PSF) by using a combination of methods including sectioning and phase diversity blind deconvolution whose PSFs are correlated and approximately spatially-invariant, and apply iterative blind deconvolution
Bardsley, John
Uncertainties of coherent states for a generalized supersymmetric annihilation operator
This study presents supersymmetric coherent states that are eigenstates of a general four-parameter family of annihilation operators. The elements of this family are defined as operators in Fock space that transform a subspace of a definite number of particles into a subspace with one particle removed. The emphasis is on classifying parameter space in various regions according to the uncertainty bounds of the corresponding coherent states. Specifically, the uncertainty in position-momentum is analyzed, with specific focus on characterizing regions of minimum uncertainty states, regions where the uncertainties are bounded from above, and where they grow unbound.
Kornbluth, Mordechai; Zypman, Fredy [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)] [Physics Department, Yeshiva University, 500 W 185th Street, New York, New York 10033 (United States)
Characterizing and responding to uncertainty in climate change
Irreversible abatement investment under cost uncertainties:about other firms� investment cost. Third, if the regulatorIn addition, while making investment costs heterogeneous
Lemoine, Derek Mark
Nonmarket Valuation under Preference Uncertainty: Econometric Models and Estimation
3 The EconometricUNCERTAINTY: ECONOMETRIC MODELS AND ESTIMATION bY W. MichaelSection 3 introduces ihe econometric model. Section 4
Hanemann, W. Michael; Kristrom, Bengt; Li, Chuan-Zhong
tax on microgrid combined heat and power adoption. JournalDG) and combined heat and power (CHP) applications via heatUncertainty Keywords: Combined heat and power applications,
Siddiqui, Afzal
Optimization Online - The impact of wind uncertainty on the strategic ...
Jan 14, 2015 ... Abstract: The intermittent nature of wind energy generation has introduced a new degree of uncertainty to the tactical planning of energy�...
Pedro Crespo Del Granado
A surrogate-based uncertainty quantification with quantifiable errors
Surrogate models are often employed to reduce the computational cost required to complete uncertainty quantification, where one is interested in propagating input parameters uncertainties throughout a complex engineering model to estimate responses uncertainties. An improved surrogate construction approach is introduced here which places a premium on reducing the associated computational cost. Unlike existing methods where the surrogate is constructed first, then employed to propagate uncertainties, the new approach combines both sensitivity and uncertainty information to render further reduction in the computational cost. Mathematically, the reduction is described by a range finding algorithm that identifies a subspace in the parameters space, whereby parameters uncertainties orthogonal to the subspace contribute negligible amount to the propagated uncertainties. Moreover, the error resulting from the reduction can be upper-bounded. The new approach is demonstrated using a realistic nuclear assembly model and compared to existing methods in terms of computational cost and accuracy of uncertainties. Although we believe the algorithm is general, it will be applied here for linear-based surrogates and Gaussian parameters uncertainties. The generalization to nonlinear models will be detailed in a separate article. (authors)
Bang, Y.; Abdel-Khalik, H. S. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)
Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits...
Uncertainty Quantification for Nano-Scale Integrated Circuits and MEMS Design Event Sponsor: Mathematics and Computing Science Seminar Start Date: Jan 20 2015 - 10:30am Building...
Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions
This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.
Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.
The IAEA Coordinated Research Program on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis: Description of the Benchmark Test Cases and Phases
The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The uncertainties in the HTR analysis tools are today typically assessed with sensitivity analysis and then a few important input uncertainties (typically based on a PIRT process) are varied in the analysis to find a spread in the parameter of importance. However, one wish to apply a more fundamental approach to determine the predictive capability and accuracies of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations used for reactor design and safety assessment. Today there is a broader acceptance of the use of uncertainty analysis even in safety studies and it has been accepted by regulators in some cases to replace the traditional conservative analysis. Finally, there is also a renewed focus in supplying reliable covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) that can then be used in uncertainty methods. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are therefore becoming an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In order to address uncertainty in analysis and methods in the HTGR community the IAEA launched a Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling early in 2012. The project is built on the experience of the OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) Uncertainty Analysis in Best-Estimate Modelling (UAM) benchmark activity, but focuses specifically on the peculiarities of HTGR designs and its simulation requirements. Two benchmark problems were defined with the prismatic type design represented by the MHTGR-350 design from General Atomics (GA) while a 250 MW modular pebble bed design, similar to the INET (China) and indirect-cycle PBMR (South Africa) designs are also included. In the paper more detail on the benchmark cases, the different specific phases and tasks and the latest status and plans are presented.
Frederik Reitsma; Gerhard Strydom; Bismark Tyobeka; Kostadin Ivanov
Electromagnetic radiation in a time-varying background medium
Analytical solutions are presented for the electromagnetic radiation by an arbitrary pulsed source into a homogeneous time-varying background medium. In the constant-impedance case an explicit radiation formula is obtained for the synchronous permittivity and permeability described by any positive function of time. As might be expected, such a medium introduces significant spectral shifts and spatio-temporal modulation, which are analized here for the linear and exponential time-variations of the medium parameters. In the varying-impedance case the solution is obtained for the fourth-order polynomial time-dependence of the permittivity. In addition to the spectral shifts and modulation this spatially homogeneous medium scatters the field introducing causal echoes at the receiver location.
Budko, Neil V
Chimera states in time-varying complex networks
Chimera states have been recently found in a variety of different coupling schemes and geometries. In most cases, the underlying coupling structure is considered to be static, while many realistic systems display significant temporal changes in the pattern of connectivity. In this work, we investigate a time-varying network made of two coupled populations of Kuramoto oscillators, where the links between the two groups are considered to vary over time. As a main result, we find that the network may support stable, breathing and alternating chimera states. We also find that, when the rate of connectivity changes is fast, compared to the oscillator dynamics, the network may be described by a low-dimensional system of equations. Unlike in the static heterogeneous case, the onset of alternating chimera states is due to the presence of fluctuations, which may be induced either by the finite size of the network or by large switching times.
Arturo Buscarino; Mattia Frasca; Lucia Valentina Gambuzza; Philipp Hovel
Uncertainties in the Anti-neutrino Production at Nuclear Reactors
Anti-neutrino emission rates from nuclear reactors are determined from thermal power measurements and fission rate calculations. The uncertainties in these quantities for commercial power plants and their impact on the calculated interaction rates in electron anti-neutrino detectors is examined. We discuss reactor-to-reactor correlations between the leading uncertainties and their relevance to reactor anti-neutrino experiments.
Z. Djurcic; J. A. Detwiler; A. Piepke; V. R. Foster Jr.; L. Miller; G. Gratta
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations
Kim, Kiho
Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated
1 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Reservoir Simulation Solutions, Inc. SPE 102492 #12;2 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Outline Reservoir Simulation Uncertainty, Using Surrogate Reservoir Model #12;3 Shahab D. Mohaghegh, WVU, ISI SPE 102492 Sources
Mohaghegh, Shahab
Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations
1 Offshore Oilfield Development Planning under Uncertainty and Fiscal Considerations Vijay Gupta1 of uncertainty and complex fiscal rules in the development planning of offshore oil and gas fields which involve, Offshore Oil and Gas, Multistage Stochastic, Endogenous, Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) 1
Grossmann, Ignacio E.
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Uncertainty-aware visualization and proximity
-aware, geospatial-AR system for real time visualization and proximity analysis. Uncertainties are modeled excavation: a geospatial augmented reality approach Xing Su1 , Sanat Talmaki2 , Hubo Cai3* and Vineet R Kamat an uncertainty-aware, geospatial augmented reality (AR) to visualize and monitor the proximity between invisible
Kamat, Vineet R.
Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter
Production Optimization; System Identification and Uncertainty Estimation Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav Slupphaug Tor Arne Johansen 1 Abstract Real-time optimization of oil and gas production requires a production model, which must be fitted to data for accuracy. A certain amount of uncertainty must typically
Johansen, Tor Arne
Evolution of Schrodinger Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics
In the present article, we discuss one of the basic relations of Quantum Mechanics - the Uncertainty Relation (UR). In 1930, few years after Heisenberg, Erwin Schrodinger generalized the famous Uncertainty Relation in Quantum Mechanics, making it more precise than the original. The present study discusses recent generalizations of Schrodinger's work and explains why his paper remains almost forgotten in the last century.
A Angelow
Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of BRANDON JULIO
Policy Uncertainty and Cross-Border Flows of Capital BRANDON JULIO London Business School YOUNGSUK YOOK Sungkyunkwan University September 2011 ABSTRACT We find that policy uncertainty is an important determinant of fluctuations in cross- border flows of capital. Spefically, we find that fluctuations in policy
University of Technology, Sydney
Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water
Global Carbon Project · Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class1928 2000 Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on water Uncertainty in projected-2004Observed Changes: 1970-2004 · High confidence changes in: rainfall intensity extreme temperatures
Maurer,. Edwin P.
Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis
Climate Change Uncertainty and Skepticism: A Cross-Country Analysis Skepticism about climate change for other countries. · Skepticism and uncertainty are related but different aspects of climate change perceptions. In the literature, skepticism often relates to whether people believe climate change is happening
Hall, Sharon J.
Ris-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk
Risø-R-1344(EN) Assessment of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments of Uncertainties in Risk Analysis of Chemical Establishments The ASSURANCE project Final summary report Kurt risk analyses for the same chemical facility, an ammonia storage. The EC's Joint Research Centre
Clustering and Uncertainty in Perfect Chaos Systems
The goal of this investigation was to derive strictly new properties of chaotic systems and their mutual relations. The generalized Fokker-Planck equation with a non stationary diffusion has been derived and used for chaos analysis. An anomalous transport turned out to be natural property of this equation. A nonlinear dispersion of the considered motion allowed to find a principal consequence: a chaotic system with uniform dynamic properties tends to unstable clustering. Small fluctuations of particles density increase by time and form attractors and stochastic islands even if the initial transport properties have uniform distribution. It was shown that an instability of phase trajectories leads to the nonlinear dispersion law and consequently to a space instability. A fixed boundary system was considered, using a standard Fokker-Planck equation. We have derived that such a type of dynamic systems has a discrete diffusive and energy spectra. It was shown that phase space diffusion is the only parameter that defines a dynamic accuracy in this case. The uncertainty relations have been obtained for conjugate phase space variables with account of transport properties. Given results can be used in the area of chaotic systems modelling and turbulence investigation.
Sergey A. Kamenshchikov
In most star formation history (SFH) measurements, the reported uncertainties are those due to effects whose sizes can be readily measured: Poisson noise, adopted distance and extinction, and binning choices in the solution itself. However, the largest source of error, systematics in the adopted isochrones, is usually ignored and very rarely explicitly incorporated into the uncertainties. I propose a process by which estimates of the uncertainties due to evolutionary models can be incorporated into the SFH uncertainties. This process relies on application of shifts in temperature and luminosity, the sizes of which must be calibrated for the data being analyzed. While there are inherent limitations, the ability to estimate the effect of systematic errors and include them in the overall uncertainty is significant. The effects of this are most notable in the case of shallow photometry, with which SFH measurements rely on evolved stars.
Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: email@example.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ 85734 (United States)
Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment
This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies �reduction� and �resilience�, �denying�, �ignoring� and �postponing�. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.
Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers V�nge 15, 2450 K�benhavn SV (Denmark); K�rn�v, Lone, E-mail: email@example.com [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: email@example.com [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers V�nge 15, 2450 K�benhavn SV (Denmark)] [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers V�nge 15, 2450 K�benhavn SV (Denmark)
Hadronic uncertainties in the elastic scattering of supersymmetric dark matter
We review the uncertainties in the spin-independent and spin-dependent elastic scattering cross sections of supersymmetric dark matter particles on protons and neutrons. We propagate the uncertainties in quark masses and hadronic matrix elements that are related to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term and the spin content of the nucleon. By far the largest single uncertainty is that in spin-independent scattering induced by our ignorance of the matrix elements linked to the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term, which affects the ratio of cross sections on proton and neutron targets as well as their absolute values. This uncertainty is already impacting the interpretations of experimental searches for cold dark matter. We plead for an experimental campaign to determine better the {pi}-nucleon {sigma} term. Uncertainties in the spin content of the proton affect significantly, but less strongly, the calculation of rates used in indirect searches.
Ellis, John [TH Division, Physics Department, CERN, 1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A.; Savage, Christopher [William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455 (United States)
Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap | Department of Energy
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of EnergyEnergyENERGY TAX POLICIES7.pdfFuel Cell VehicleEnergy (5 Activities) GeothermalHeatRegulatory
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of Energy Power.pdf11-161-LNG |September 15,2015 |RebeccaRegional StandardsExecutive OrderTheRegulatory
Office of Legacy Management (LM)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "ofEarlyEnergyDepartment ofDepartment ofof EnergyYou$0.C. 20545 OCT 28 1% - :NEW YORIC LedouxREGULATORY
Regulatory Drivers | netl.doe.gov
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatory Analysis on
Regulatory Framework at LANL.pdf
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatory Analysis onEnvironmental
Sandia National Laboratories: Pollution Prevention: Regulatory Drivers
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik SpoerkeSolar Regional Test Center inInsights forAwards 2010Regulatory
Sandia National Laboratories: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -theErik Spoerke SSLS Exhibit at Explora Museum OnFact SheetsEnergy Regulatory
Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR-1 Experiment
This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL�s Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.
Binh T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson; Grant L. Hawkes
This report documents an effort to quantify the uncertainty of the calculated temperature data for the first Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR-1) fuel irradiation experiment conducted in the INL's Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) in support of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) R&D program. Recognizing uncertainties inherent in physics and thermal simulations of the AGR-1 test, the results of the numerical simulations can be used in combination with the statistical analysis methods to improve qualification of measured data. Additionally, the temperature simulation data for AGR tests can be used for validation of the fuel transport and fuel performance simulation models. The crucial roles of the calculated fuel temperatures in ensuring achievement of the AGR experimental program objectives require accurate determination of the model temperature uncertainties. The report is organized into three chapters. Chapter 1 introduces the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification program and provides overviews of AGR-1 measured data, AGR-1 test configuration and test procedure, and thermal simulation. Chapters 2 describes the uncertainty quantification procedure for temperature simulation data of the AGR-1 experiment, namely, (i) identify and quantify uncertainty sources; (ii) perform sensitivity analysis for several thermal test conditions; (iii) use uncertainty propagation to quantify overall response temperature uncertainty. A set of issues associated with modeling uncertainties resulting from the expert assessments are identified. This also includes the experimental design to estimate the main effects and interactions of the important thermal model parameters. Chapter 3 presents the overall uncertainty results for the six AGR-1 capsules. This includes uncertainties for the daily volume-average and peak fuel temperatures, daily average temperatures at TC locations, and time-average volume-average and time-average peak fuel temperatures.
Patient-specific quantification of respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty for step-and-shoot IMRT of lung cancer
Purpose: The objective of this study was to quantify respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty at the planning stage for step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) using an analytical technique.Methods: Ten patients with stage II/III lung cancer who had undergone a planning four-dimensional (4D) computed tomographic scan and step-and-shoot IMRT planning were selected with a mix of motion and tumor size for this retrospective study. A step-and-shoot IMRT plan was generated for each patient. The maximum and minimum doses with respiratory motion were calculated for each plan, and the mean deviation from the 4D dose was calculated, taking delivery time, fractionation, and patient breathing cycle into consideration.Results: For all patients evaluated in this study, the mean deviation from the 4D dose in the planning target volume (PTV) was <2.5%, with a standard deviation <1.2%, and maximum point dose variation from the 4D dose was <6.2% in the PTV assuming delivery dose rate of 200 MU/min and patient breathing cycle of 8 s. The motion-induced dose uncertainty is a function of motion, fractionation, MU (plan modulation), dose rate, and patient breathing cycle.Conclusions: Respiratory motion-induced dose uncertainty varies from patient to patient. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the dose uncertainty on a patient-specific basis, which could be useful for plan evaluation and treatment strategy determination for selected patients.
Li, Heng; Park, Peter; Liu, Wei; Matney, Jason; Balter, Peter; Zhang, Xiaodong; Li, Xiaoqiang; Zhu, X. Ronald [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Physics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States); Liao, Zhongxing [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States)] [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas 77030 (United States); Li, Yupeng [Applied Research, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California 94304 (United States)] [Applied Research, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, California 94304 (United States)
Environmental regulatory update table, July/August 1994
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Bock, R.E.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, July--August 1992
Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Lewis, E.B.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental sciences division: Environmental regulatory update table July 1988
Langston, M.E.; Nikbakht, A.; Salk, M.S.
Environmental regulatory update table, September--October 1992
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January/February 1992
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action. This table is for January/February 1992.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1993
Houlberg, L.M.; Hawkins, G.T.; Salk, M.S.; Danford, G.S.; Lewis, E.B.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1992
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly wit information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May--June 1994
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bimonthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental regulatory update table: September/October 1994
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, September/October 1993
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operation and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, January--February 1994
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory initiatives of interest to DOE operations ad contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, November--December 1993
The Environmental Regulatory Update Table provides information on regulatory of interest to DOE operations and contractor staff with environmental management responsibilities. The table is updated bi-monthly with information from the Federal Register and other sources, including direct contact with regulatory agencies. Each table entry provides a chronological record of the rulemaking process for that initiative with an abstract and a projection of further action.
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, March/April 1992
Information resources in state regulatory agencies-a California perspective
Various state regulatory agencies have expressed a need for networking with information gatherers/researchers to produce a concise compilation of primary information so that the basis for regulatory standards can be scientifically referenced. California has instituted several programs to retrieve primary information, generate primary information through research, and generate unique regulatory standards by integrating the primary literature and the products of research. This paper describes these programs.
DiZio, S.M. [California Environmental Protection Agency, Sacramento (United States)
Regulatory treatment of allowances and compliance costs
The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) established a national emission allowance trading system, a market-based form of environmental regulation designed to reduce and limit sulfur dioxide emissions. However, the allowance trading system is being applied primarily to an economically regulated electric utility industry. The combining of the new form of environmental regulation and economic regulation of electric utilities has raised a number of questions including what the role should be of the federal and state utility regulating commissions and how those actions will affect the decision making process of the utilities and the allowance market. There are several dimensions to the regulatory problems that commissions face. Allowances and utility compliance expenditures have implications for least-cost/IPR (integrated resource planning), prudence review procedures, holding company and multistate utility regulation and ratemaking treatment. The focus of this paper is on the ratemaking treatment. The following topics are covered: ratemaking treatment of allowances and compliance costs; Traditional cost-recovery mechanisms; limitations to the traditional approach; traditional approach and the allowance trading market; market-based cost recovery mechanisms; methods of determining the benchmark; determining the split between ratepayers and the utility; other regulatory approaches; limitations of incentive mechanisms.
Rose, K. [National Regulatory Research Institute, Columbus, OH (United States)
Canada-United States Regulatory Cooperation Council Webinar:...
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Comments on Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory...
Request For Information regarding Reducing Regulatory Reform issued February 3, 2011 (Federal Register Vol. 76, No. 23 Thursday, February 3, 2011 Notices). Comments on Request...
Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommenda...
and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy: Recommendations to the NRC Committee on Research Universities Regulatory and Financial Reform of Federal Research Policy:...
Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop Toolkit (Fact Sheet)
Overview of DOE's Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit project, providing information on where to go to view documents and who to contact to get involved.
Young, K.
Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable...
Applicable to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005) - List of Covered Electric Utilities. Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act of 1978 (PURPA) as Applicable to the Energy...
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Department of Energy Commends the Nuclear Regulatory Commission...
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Sandia National Laboratories: Policy and Regulatory, Codes and...
Grid-Tied PV System Energy Smoothing Tagged with: Codes * Energy * photovoltaic * Photovoltaics * Policy * PV * Regulatory * Renewable Energy * SAND2012-2566W * solar * Solar...
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Grid-scale Storage Technologies Regulatory Barriers and Policy Instruments Hydrogen Energy Storage for Grid and Transportation Services May 15 th , 2014 Sacramento, CA Demand 599...
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Chapter 35 of the Public Utility Regulatory Act specifically addresses alternative energy providers, and contains provisions designed to aid such providers in selling power in Texas's competitive...
Determinants of effective information transfer in international regulatory standards adoption.
?? The role of international regulatory standards within the current global environment has become of the most importance. The age of the global system and� (more)
Popescu, Denisa
Training the staff of the regulatory body for nuclear facilities: A competency framework November 2001The originating Section of this publication in the IAEA was:
Wagramer Strasse; A Competency Framework
UNIT NAME C-611 PCB Spill Site REGULATORY STATUS CERCLA
79 UNIT NAME C-611 PCB Spill Site REGULATORY STATUS CERCLA LOCATION C-611 Transformer area (Map location 79) APPROXIMATE DIMENSIONS FUNCTION Spill Site OPERATIONAL STATUS NA DATES...
Joint measurability, steering and entropic uncertainty
The notion of incompatibility of measurements in quantum theory is in stark contrast with the corresponding classical perspective, where all physical observables are jointly measurable. It is of interest to examine if the results of two or more measurements in the quantum scenario can be perceived from a classical point of view or they still exhibit non-classical features. Clearly, commuting observables can be measured jointly using projective measurements and their statistical outcomes can be discerned classically. However, such simple minded association of compatibility of measurements with commutativity turns out to be limited in an extended framework, where the usual notion of sharp projective valued measurements of self adjoint observables gets broadened to include unsharp measurements of generalized observables constituting positive operator valued measures (POVM). There is a surge of research activity recently towards gaining new physical insights on the emergence of classical behavior via joint measurability of unsharp observables. Here, we explore the entropic uncertainty relation for a pair of discrete observables (of Alice's system) when an entangled quantum memory of Bob is restricted to record outcomes of jointly measurable POVMs only. Within the joint measurability regime, the sum of entropies associated with Alice's measurement outcomes - conditioned by the results registered at Bob's end - are constrained to obey an entropic steering inequality. In this case, Bob's non-steerability reflects itself as his inability in predicting the outcomes of Alice's pair of non-commuting observables with better precision, even when they share an entangled state. As a further consequence, the quantum advantage envisaged for the construction of security proofs in key distribution is lost, when Bob's measurements are restricted to the joint measurability regime.
H. S. Karthik; A. R. Usha Devi; A. K. Rajagopal
Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity
It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford.
DeMuth, S.F. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Franklin, A.L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Reading the Tea Leaves: How Utilities in the West Are Managing Carbon Regulatory Risk in their Resource Plans
The long economic lifetime and development lead-time of many electric infrastructure investments requires that utility resource planning consider potential costs and risks over a lengthy time horizon. One long-term -- and potentially far-reaching -- risk currently facing the electricity industry is the uncertain cost of future carbon dioxide (CO2) regulations. Recognizing the importance of this issue, many utilities (sometimes spurred by state regulatory requirements) are beginning to actively assess carbon regulatory risk within their resource planning processes, and to evaluate options for mitigating that risk. However, given the relatively recent emergence of this issue and the rapidly changing political landscape, methods and assumptions used to analyze carbon regulatory risk, and the impact of this analysis on the selection of a preferred resource portfolio, vary considerably across utilities. In this study, we examine the treatment of carbon regulatory risk in utility resource planning, through a comparison of the most-recent resource plans filed by fifteen investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities in the Western U.S. Together, these utilities account for approximately 60percent of retail electricity sales in the West, and cover nine of eleven Western states. This report has two related elements. First, we compare and assess utilities' approaches to addressing key analytical issues that arise when considering the risk of future carbon regulations. Second, we summarize the composition and carbon intensity of the preferred resource portfolios selected by these fifteen utilities and compare them to potential CO2 emission benchmark levels.
Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements
The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.
Wells, C.
Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties
We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.
The NNPDF Collaboration; Richard D. Ball; Luigi Del Debbio; Stefano Forte; Alberto Guffanti; Jose I. Latorre; Juan Rojo; Maria Ubiali
Evaluation of expanded uncertainties in luminous intensity and illuminance calibrations
Detector-based calibrating methods and expressions for calculation of photometric uncertainties related to uncertainties in the calibrations of luminous intensity of a light source, illuminance responsivity of a photometer head, and calibration factors of an illuminance meter are discussed. These methods permit luminous intensity calibrations of incandescent light sources, luminous responsivity calibrations of photometer heads, and calibration factors of illuminance meters to be carried out with relative expanded uncertainties (with a level of confidence of 95.45%) of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 0.6%, respectively.
Sametoglu, Ferhat
Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint
Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.
Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.
Staff Report to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
affecting competitive pricing of electric energy or reliability of service and (b) report its findingsStaff Report to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission on the Bulk Power Markets In the United of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, any individual Commissioner, or the Commission itself
FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW FOR THE PROPOSAL TO CREATE DISTRICTS WITHIN. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.1Environmental Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2.2Regulatory Impact Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.0 ENVIRONMENTAL AND BIOLOGICAL IMPACTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2.1 Atka Mackerel Biology
SECRETARIAL REVIEW DRAFT ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT/REGULATORY IMPACT REVIEW/ INITIAL REGULATORY The purpose of the non-AFA crab sideboard limits was to prevent vessels with crab QS from disadvantaging non for non-American Fisheries Act (AFA) crab vessels. In April 2007, the Council began developing options
ERDC/ELTR-10-17 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-10-17 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program A Regional Guidebook for Applying the Hydrogeomorphic Approach to the Functional Assessment of Forested Wetlands in Alluvial Valleys of East Texas Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program ERDC
US Army Corps of Engineers
ERDC/ELTR-12-5 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-12-5 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Hawai`i and Pacific Islands Region (Version 2.0) EnvironmentalLaboratory U;#12;Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program ERDC/EL TR-12-5 February 2012 Regional Supplement to the Corps
ERDC/ELTR-11-11 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-11-11 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Guidebook for Applying the Hydrogeomorphic Approach to Assessing the Functions of Headwater Slope Wetlands on the South Carolina Coastal Ainslie September 2011 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands Regulatory
ERDC/ELTR-10-1 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-10-1 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Great Plains Region (Version 2.0) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers March 2010 EnvironmentalLaboratory Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands Regulatory
ERDC/ELTR-12-9 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-12-9 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Eastern Mountains and Piedmont Region (Version 2.0) EnvironmentalLaboratory U;#12;Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program ERDC/EL TR-12-9 April 2012 Regional Supplement to the Corps
ERDC/ELTR-10-16 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-10-16 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Midwest Region (Version 2.0) EnvironmentalLaboratory U.S. Army Corps of Engineers August 2010 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands Regulatory
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity
Ross, Shane
Control of systems subject to uncertainty and constraints
do not alter small signal performance. Importantly, these two remedial control methodologies must in�corporate model uncertainty into their design to be considered reliable in practice. In this dissertation, shared principles of design...
Villota Cerna, Elizabeth Roxana
ment of uncertainty via real options increases the value of2007) and the 2007 Real Options Conference in Berkeley, CA,distributed generation, real options JEL Codes: D81, Q40
The effects of incorporating dynamic data on estimates of uncertainty
that incorporating dynamic data in a reservoir model will result in lower estimates of uncertainty than considering only static data. However, incorporation of dynamic data does not guarantee that the forecasted ranges will encompass the true value. Reliability...
Mulla, Shahebaz Hisamuddin
An uncertainty principle, Wegner estimates and localization near fluctuation boundaries
We prove a simple uncertainty principle and show that it can be applied to prove Wegner estimates near fluctuation boundaries. This gives new classes of models for which localization at low energies can be proven.
Anne Boutet de Monvel; Daniel Lenz; Peter Stollmann
Real options approach to capacity planning under uncertainty
This thesis highlights the effectiveness of Real Options Analysis (ROA) in capacity planning decisions for engineering projects subject to uncertainty. This is in contrast to the irreversible decision-making proposed by ...
Mittal, Geetanjali, 1979-
Determination of uncertainty in parameters extracted from single spectroscopic measurements
The ability to quantify uncertainty in information extracted from spectroscopic measurements is important in numerous fields. The traditional approach of repetitive measurements may be impractical or impossible in some ...
Bechtel, Kate L.
An efficient Bayesian approach to history matching and uncertainty assessment
Conditioning reservoir models to production data and assessment of uncertainty can be done by Bayesian theorem. This inverse problem can be computationally intensive, generally requiring orders of magnitude more computation time compared...
Yuan, Chengwu
Uncertainty in Greenhouse Emissions and Costs of Atmospheric Stabilization
We explore the uncertainty in projections of emissions, and costs of atmospheric stabilization applying the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis model, a computable general equilibrium model of the global economy. ...
Webster, Mort D.
Modeling aviation's global emissions, uncertainty analysis, and applications to policy
(cont.) fuel burn results below 3000 ft. For emissions, the emissions indices were the most influential uncertainties for the variance in model outputs. By employing the model, this thesis examined three policy options for ...
Lee, Joosung Joseph, 1974-
The Decision Rule Approach to Optimisation under Uncertainty ...
Robust Optimisation, Decision Rules, Optimisation under Uncertainty. ... in turn lead to the underperformance or complete breakdown of production processes. Yet,. 1 ...... 5: Energy Systems Engineering, M. Georgiadis, E. Kikkinides, and E.
Including model uncertainty in risk-informed decision-making
Model uncertainties can have a significant impact on decisions regarding licensing basis changes. We present a methodology to identify basic events in the risk assessment that have the potential to change the decision and ...
Reinert, Joshua M
Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration -Paula Reimer
naked body'. Robert Boyle 1663 Includes Thermoluminescence (TL), Optically stimulated luminescenceSUPRA-net: Chronological information and uncertainty Radiocarbon dating & calibration - Paula Tephrochronology David Lowe U series dating David Richards* Combining multiple dating techniques Andrew
Sengun, Mehmet Haluk
Essays on Voluntary Contribution with Private Information and Threshold Uncertainty
This dissertation concerns individual voluntary contributions in the subscription game with three important model considerations: private information on public good valuations, threshold uncertainty and the timing of the contribution � simultaneous...
Peng, Hui-Chun
Analysis and Reduction of Complex Networks Under Uncertainty
This is a collaborative proposal that aims at developing new methods for the analysis and reduction of complex multiscale networks under uncertainty. The approach is based on combining methods of computational singular perturbation (CSP) and probabilistic uncertainty quantification. In deterministic settings, CSP yields asymptotic approximations of reduced-dimensionality �slow manifolds� on which a multiscale dynamical system evolves. Introducing uncertainty raises fundamentally new issues, particularly concerning its impact on the topology of slow manifolds, and means to represent and quantify associated variability. To address these challenges, this project uses polynomial chaos (PC) methods to reformulate uncertain network models, and to analyze them using CSP in probabilistic terms. Specific objectives include (1) developing effective algorithms that can be used to illuminate fundamental and unexplored connections among model reduction, multiscale behavior, and uncertainty, and (2) demonstrating the performance of these algorithms through applications to model problems.
Knio, Omar M
Some methods of estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction
In the paper four methods for estimating uncertainty in accident reconstruction are discussed: total differential method, extreme values method, Gauss statistical method, and Monte Carlo simulation method. The methods are described and the program solutions are given.
Milan Batista
Uncertainty in future carbon emissions : a preliminary exploration
In order to analyze competing policy approaches for addressing global climate change, a wide variety of economic-energy models are used to project future carbon emissions under various policy scenarios. Due to uncertainties ...
Webster, Mort David.
Approach of Czech regulatory body to LBB
At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany, NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWBFL model 213) and Tomelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW - WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufacturers. The objective of the Czech LBB program is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of there NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety Facilities too. For both Dukovany and Tomelin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement, {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASMF CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quote} and consist of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.
Tendera, P.
Approach for Czech regulatory body to LBB
At present there are two NPPs equipped with PWR units in Czech Republic. The Dukovany NPP is about ten years in operation (four units 440 MW - WWER model 213) and Temelin NPP is under construction (two units 1000 MW-WWER model 320). Both NPPs were built to Soviet design and according to Soviet regulations and standards but most of equipment for primary circuits was supplied by home manufactures. The objective for the Czech LBB programme is to prove the LBB status of the primary piping systems of these NPPs and the LBB concept is a part of strategy to meet western style safety standards. The reason for the Czech LBB project is a lack of some standard safety facilities, too. For both Dukovany and Temolin NPPs a full LBB analysis should be carried out. The application of LBB to the piping system should be also a cost effective means to avoid installations of pipe whip restraints and jet shields. The Czech regulatory body issued non-mandatory requirement {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} which is in compliance with national legal documents and which is based on the US NRC Regulatory Procedures and US standards (ASME, CODE, ANSI). The requirement has been published in the document {open_quotes}Safety of Nuclear Facilities{close_quotes} No. 1/1991 as {open_quotes}Requirements on the Content and Format of Safety Reports and their Supplements{close_quotes} and consists of two parts (1) procedure for obtaining proof of evidence {open_quotes}Leak Before Break{close_quotes} (2) leak detection systems for the pressurized reactor primary circuit. At present some changes concerning both parts of the above document will be introduced. The reasons for this modifications will be presented.
Tendera, P. [State Office for Nuclear Safety (SONS), Prague (Czech Republic)
A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying...
A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control Technologies A Comparison of Two Gasoline and Two Diesel Cars with Varying Emission Control...
Quantum Groups, Gravity, and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle
We investigate the relationship between the generalized uncertainty principle in quantum gravity and the quantum deformation of the Poincar\\'e algebra. We find that a deformed Newton-Wigner position operator and the generators of spatial translations and rotations of the deformed Poincar\\'e algebra obey a deformed Heisenberg algebra from which the generalized uncertainty principle follows. The result indicates that in the $\\kappa$-deformed Poincar\\'e algebra a minimal observable length emerges naturally.
Michele Maggiore
Environmental uncertainty and social value orientation in resource dilemmas
research has shown that both environmental uncertainty and social value orientation (cooperators vs. noncooperators) will affect harvest sizes from a common resource pool. However, these two variables have not been simultaneously explored.... In the present experiment, 172 subjects harvested units from a common resource pool over 20 twenty trials. It was predicted that noncooperators would harvest more than cooperators (Hypothesis 1), an interaction between social value orientation and uncertainty...
Roch, Sylvia Gabriele
An efficient method for treating uncertainties in structural dynamics
AN EFFICIENT METHOD FOR TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS A Thesis by BING WANG Submitted to the Oflice of Graduate Studies of Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE...) Alan . Pa zolo (Member) ames . . Yao (Head of D artment) December 1992 ABSTRACT An Efficient Method for Treating Uncertainties in Structural Dynamics. (December 1992) Bing Wang, B. S. , Tsinghua University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr...
Wang, Bing
Inter- and Intrafractional Positional Uncertainties in Pediatric Radiotherapy Patients With Brain and Head and Neck Tumors
Purpose: To estimate radiation therapy planning margins based on inter- and intrafractional uncertainty for pediatric brain and head and neck tumor patients at different imaging frequencies. Methods: Pediatric patients with brain (n = 83) and head and neck (n = 17) tumors (median age = 7.2 years) were enrolled on an internal review board-approved localization protocol and stratified according to treatment position and use of anesthesia. Megavoltage cone-beam CT (CBCT) was performed before each treatment and after every other treatment. The pretreatment offsets were used to calculate the interfractional setup uncertainty (SU), and posttreatment offsets were used to calculate the intrafractional residual uncertainty (RU). The SU and RU are the patient-related components of the setup margin (SM), which is part of the planning target volume (PTV). SU data was used to simulate four intervention strategies using different imaging frequencies and thresholds. Results: The SM based on all patients treated on this study was 2.1 mm (SU = 0.9 mm, RU = 1.9 mm) and varied according to treatment position (supine = 1.8 mm, prone = 2.6 mm) and use of anesthesia (with = 1.7 mm, without = 2.5 mm) because of differences in the RU. The average SU for a 2-mm threshold based on no imaging, once per week imaging, initial five images, and daily imaging was 3.6, 2.1, 2.2, and 0.9 mm, respectively. Conclusion: On the basis of this study, the SM component of the PTV may be reduced to 2 mm for daily CBCT compared with 3.5 mm for weekly CBCT. Considering patients who undergo daily pretreatment CBCT, the SM is larger for those treated in the prone position or smaller for those treated under anesthesia because of differences in the RU.
Beltran, Chris, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Department of Radiological Sciences, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN (United States); Krasin, Matthew J.; Merchant, Thomas E. [Department of Radiological Sciences, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN (United States)
$f(T)$ Theories and Varying Fine Structure Constant
In analogy to $f(R)$ theory, recently $f(T)$ theory has been proposed to drive the current accelerated expansion without invoking dark energy. In the literature, the observational constraints on $f(T)$ theories were obtained mainly by using the cosmological data, such as type Ia supernovae (SNIa), baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and cosmic microwave background radiation (CMB). In this work, we instead try to constrain $f(T)$ theories with the varying fine structure "constant", $\\alpha\\equiv e^2/\\hbar c$. We find that the constraints on $f(T)$ theories from the observational $\\Delta\\alpha/\\alpha$ data are very severe. In fact, they make $f(T)$ theories almost indistinguishable from $\\Lambda$CDM model.
Wei, Hao; Qi, Hao-Yu
Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks
The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q?>?q{sub c} and die when q?
Ren, Guangming, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China) [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)] [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)
Systems and methods of varying charged particle beam spot size
Methods and devices enable shaping of a charged particle beam. A modified dielectric wall accelerator includes a high gradient lens section and a main section. The high gradient lens section can be dynamically adjusted to establish the desired electric fields to minimize undesirable transverse defocusing fields at the entrance to the dielectric wall accelerator. Once a baseline setting with desirable output beam characteristic is established, the output beam can be dynamically modified to vary the output beam characteristics. The output beam can be modified by slightly adjusting the electric fields established across different sections of the modified dielectric wall accelerator. Additional control over the shape of the output beam can be excreted by introducing intentional timing de-synchronization offsets and producing an injected beam that is not fully matched to the entrance of the modified dielectric accelerator.
Chen, Yu-Jiuan
Scattering in a varying mass PT symmetric double heterojunction
We observe that the reflection and transmission coefficients of a particle within a double, PT symmetric heterojunction with spatially varying mass, show interesting features, depending on the degree of non Hermiticity, although there is no spontaneous breakdown of PT symmetry. The potential profile in the intermediate layer is considered such that it has a non vanishing imaginary part near the heterojunctions. Exact analytical solutions for the wave function are obtained, and the reflection and transmission coefficients are plotted as a function of energy, for both left as well as right incidence. As expected, the spatial dependence on mass changes the nature of the scattering solutions within the heterojunctions, and the space-time (PT) symmetry is responsible for the left-right asymmetry in the reflection and transmission coefficients. However, the non vanishing imaginary component of the potential near the heterojunctions gives new and interesting results.
Anjana Sinha; R. Roychoudhury
Local non-Gaussianity from rapidly varying sound speeds
We study the effect of non-trivial sound speeds on local-type non-Gaussianity during multiple-field inflation. To this end, we consider a multiple-DBI model and use the ?N formalism to track the super-horizon evolution of perturbations. By adopting a sum separable Hubble parameter we derive analytic expressions for the relevant quantities in the two-field case, valid beyond slow variation. We find that non-trivial sound speeds can, in principle, curve the trajectory in such a way that significant local-type non-Gaussianity is produced. Deviations from slow variation, such as rapidly varying sound speeds, enhance this effect. To illustrate our results we consider two-field inflation in the tip regions of two warped throats and find large local-type non-Gaussianity produced towards the end of the inflationary process.
Emery, Jon; Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Wands, David, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com, E-mail: email@example.com [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom)
Optical waveguide device with an adiabatically-varying width
Optical waveguide devices are disclosed which utilize an optical waveguide having a waveguide bend therein with a width that varies adiabatically between a minimum value and a maximum value of the width. One or more connecting members can be attached to the waveguide bend near the maximum value of the width thereof to support the waveguide bend or to supply electrical power to an impurity-doped region located within the waveguide bend near the maximum value of the width. The impurity-doped region can form an electrical heater or a semiconductor junction which can be activated with a voltage to provide a variable optical path length in the optical waveguide. The optical waveguide devices can be used to form a tunable interferometer (e.g. a Mach-Zehnder interferometer) which can be used for optical modulation or switching. The optical waveguide devices can also be used to form an optical delay line.
Watts; Michael R. (Albuquerque, NM), Nielson; Gregory N. (Albuquerque, NM)
Codes and standards and other guidance cited in regulatory documents
As part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standard Review Plan Update and Development Program (SRP-UDP), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a listing of industry consensus codes and standards and other government and industry guidance referred to in regulatory documents. The SRP-UDP has been completed and the SRP-Maintenance Program (SRP-MP) is now maintaining this listing. Besides updating previous information, Revision 3 adds approximately 80 citations. This listing identifies the version of the code or standard cited in the regulatory document, the regulatory document, and the current version of the code or standard. It also provides a summary characterization of the nature of the citation. This listing was developed from electronic searches of the Code of Federal Regulations and the NRC`s Bulletins, Information Notices, Circulars, Enforcement Manual, Generic Letters, Inspection Manual, Policy Statements, Regulatory Guides, Standard Technical Specifications and the Standard Review Plan (NUREG-0800).
Nickolaus, J.R.; Bohlander, K.L.
Spall behavior of cast iron with varying microstructures
The spall strength of cast iron with varying microstructures has been investigated using plate impact at moderate speed. Stress history measurements were made with manganin stress gauges embedded between the back face of the specimen and a low impedance polycarbonate backing. Five separate cast irons were tested. Four of these consisted of gray cast iron with graphite in flake form, with three classified as Type VII A2 and the fourth containing a bimodal distribution of Types VII A4 and VII D8. The fifth casting consisted of ductile cast iron with graphite in nodular form, classified as Type I, size class 5. The spall strength for the Type VII A2 gray cast irons varied between 40 and 370?MPa, and that of the additional gray cast iron, between 410 and 490?MPa. The spall strength of the ductile cast iron fell within the range of 0.94�1.2?GPa. It is shown that the spall strength is linked to the damage level at the spall plane, where an increased level of tensile stress is required to generate higher levels of damage. Post mortem analysis was performed on the recovered samples, revealing the graphite phase to be the primary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons, where crack nucleation is directly correlated to the debonding of graphite from the metal matrix. The average length of graphite found within a casting is linked to the material's strength, where strength increases as a function of decreasing length. The morphology and mean free path of graphite precipitates further govern the subsequent coalescence of initiated cracks to form a complete fracture plane. In cases where graphite spacing is large, increased energy level is required to complete the fracture process. A secondary factor governing the spall fracture of cast irons has also been linked to the microstructure of the metal matrix, with pearlite yielding higher spall strengths than free ferrite.
Plume, Gifford; Rousseau, Carl-Ernst, E-mail: email@example.com [Mechanical Engineering, University of Rhode Island, 92 Upper College Rd., Kingston, Rhode Island 02881 (United States)
Slowly Varying Dilaton Cosmologies and Their Field Theory Duals
We consider a deformation of the AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} solution of IIB supergravity obtained by taking the boundary value of the dilaton to be time dependent. The time dependence is taken to be slowly varying on the AdS scale thereby introducing a small parameter {epsilon}. The boundary dilaton has a profile which asymptotes to a constant in the far past and future and attains a minimum value at intermediate times. We construct the sugra solution to first non-trivial order in {epsilon}, and find that it is smooth, horizon free, and asymptotically AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} in the far future. When the intermediate values of the dilaton becomes small enough the curvature becomes of order the string scale and the sugra approximation breaks down. The resulting dynamics is analysed in the dual SU(N) gauge theory on S{sup 3} with a time dependent coupling constant which varies slowly. When N{epsilon} << 1, we find that a quantum adiabatic approximation is applicable, and use it to argue that at late times the geometry becomes smooth AdS{sub 5} x S{sup 5} again. When N{epsilon} >> 1, we formulate a classical adiabatic perturbation theory based on coherent states which arises in the large N limit. For large values of the tHooft coupling this reproduces the supergravity results. For small 'tHooft coupling the coherent state calculations become involved and we cannot reach a definite conclusion. We argue that the final state should have a dual description which is mostly smooth AdS5 space with the possible presence of a small black hole.
Awad, Adel; /British U. in Egypt /Ain Shams U., Cairo; Das, Sumit R.; Ghosh, Archisman; Oh, Jae-Hyuk; /Kentucky U.; Trivedi, Sandip P.; /Tata Inst. /Stanford U., ITP /SLAC
Uncertainty Estimation Improves Energy Measurement and Verification Procedures
Implementing energy conservation measures in buildings can reduce energy costs and environmental impacts, but such measures cost money to implement so intelligent investment strategies require the ability to quantify the energy savings by comparing actual energy used to how much energy would have been used in absence of the conservation measures (known as the baseline energy use). Methods exist for predicting baseline energy use, but a limitation of most statistical methods reported in the literature is inadequate quantification of the uncertainty in baseline energy use predictions. However, estimation of uncertainty is essential for weighing the risks of investing in retrofits. Most commercial buildings have, or soon will have, electricity meters capable of providing data at short time intervals. These data provide new opportunities to quantify uncertainty in baseline predictions, and to do so after shorter measurement durations than are traditionally used. In this paper, we show that uncertainty estimation provides greater measurement and verification (M&V) information and helps to overcome some of the difficulties with deciding how much data is needed to develop baseline models and to confirm energy savings. We also show that cross-validation is an effective method for computing uncertainty. In so doing, we extend a simple regression-based method of predicting energy use using short-interval meter data. We demonstrate the methods by predicting energy use in 17 real commercial buildings. We discuss the benefits of uncertainty estimates which can provide actionable decision making information for investing in energy conservation measures.
Walter, Travis; Price, Phillip N.; Sohn, Michael D.
How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions
From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.
Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
Fuzzy-probabilistic calculations of water-balance uncertainty
Hydrogeological systems are often characterized by imprecise, vague, inconsistent, incomplete, or subjective information, which may limit the application of conventional stochastic methods in predicting hydrogeologic conditions and associated uncertainty. Instead, redictions and uncertainty analysis can be made using uncertain input parameters expressed as probability boxes, intervals, and fuzzy numbers. The objective of this paper is to present the theory for, and a case study as an application of, the fuzzyprobabilistic approach, ombining probability and possibility theory for simulating soil water balance and assessing associated uncertainty in the components of a simple waterbalance equation. The application of this approach is demonstrated using calculations with the RAMAS Risk Calc code, to ssess the propagation of uncertainty in calculating potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and infiltration-in a case study at the Hanford site, Washington, USA. Propagation of uncertainty into the results of water-balance calculations was evaluated by hanging he types of models of uncertainty incorporated into various input parameters. The results of these fuzzy-probabilistic calculations are compared to the conventional Monte Carlo simulation approach and estimates from field observations at the Hanford site.
Faybishenko, B.
E-Print Network 3.0 - assessing spatial uncertainty Sample Search...
Uncertainty analysis assesses... in evaluating alternatives. Concern about uncertainty in spatial data and analyses is not new, but systematic... A thorough understanding of...
Optimal Control of Distributed Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty
Energy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty AfzalEnergy Resources and Demand Response under Uncertainty ?DER in conjunction with demand response (DR): the expected
Modeling Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaic Generation: A Hidden State Spatial Statistical Approach
AND UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION [9] M. Milligan,for grid-connected photovoltaic system based on advancedand uncertainty in solar photovoltaic generation at multiple
Callaway, Duncan S; Tabone, Michaelangelo D
E-Print Network 3.0 - attribution measuring uncertainty Sample...
by uncertainty in fish stock size and dynamics. Among other factors, they attribute fishery... for fish- ery policy, we find that uncertainty in ... Source: Fisher, Anthony...
River meander modeling and confronting uncertainty.
This study examines the meandering phenomenon as it occurs in media throughout terrestrial, glacial, atmospheric, and aquatic environments. Analysis of the minimum energy principle, along with theories of Coriolis forces (and random walks to explain the meandering phenomenon) found that these theories apply at different temporal and spatial scales. Coriolis forces might induce topological changes resulting in meandering planforms. The minimum energy principle might explain how these forces combine to limit the sinuosity to depth and width ratios that are common throughout various media. The study then compares the first order analytical solutions for flow field by Ikeda, et al. (1981) and Johannesson and Parker (1989b). Ikeda's et al. linear bank erosion model was implemented to predict the rate of bank erosion in which the bank erosion coefficient is treated as a stochastic variable that varies with physical properties of the bank (e.g., cohesiveness, stratigraphy, or vegetation density). The developed model was used to predict the evolution of meandering planforms. Then, the modeling results were analyzed and compared to the observed data. Since the migration of a meandering channel consists of downstream translation, lateral expansion, and downstream or upstream rotations several measures are formulated in order to determine which of the resulting planforms is closest to the experimental measured one. Results from the deterministic model highly depend on the calibrated erosion coefficient. Since field measurements are always limited, the stochastic model yielded more realistic predictions of meandering planform evolutions. Due to the random nature of bank erosion coefficient, the meandering planform evolution is a stochastic process that can only be accurately predicted by a stochastic model.
Posner, Ari J. (University of Arizona Tucson, AZ)
Improved best estimate plus uncertainty methodology including advanced validation concepts to license evolving nuclear reactors
Many evolving nuclear energy programs plan to use advanced predictive multi-scale multi-physics simulation and modeling capabilities to reduce cost and time from design through licensing. Historically, the role of experiments was primary tool for design and understanding of nuclear system behavior while modeling and simulation played the subordinate role of supporting experiments. In the new era of multi-scale multi-physics computational based technology development, the experiments will still be needed but they will be performed at different scales to calibrate and validate models leading predictive simulations. Cost saving goals of programs will require us to minimize the required number of validation experiments. Utilization of more multi-scale multi-physics models introduces complexities in the validation of predictive tools. Traditional methodologies will have to be modified to address these arising issues. This paper lays out the basic aspects of a methodology that can be potentially used to address these new challenges in design and licensing of evolving nuclear technology programs. The main components of the proposed methodology are verification, validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. An enhanced calibration concept is introduced and is accomplished through data assimilation. The goal is to enable best-estimate prediction of system behaviors in both normal and safety related environments. To achieve this goal requires the additional steps of estimating the domain of validation and quantification of uncertainties that allow for extension of results to areas of the validation domain that are not directly tested with experiments, which might include extension of the modeling and simulation (M&S) capabilities for application to full-scale systems. The new methodology suggests a formalism to quantify an adequate level of validation (predictive maturity) with respect to required selective data so that required testing can be minimized for cost saving purposes by showing further testing wold not enhance the quality of the validation of predictive tools. The proposed methodology is at a conceptual level. When matured and if considered favorably by the stakeholders, it could serve as a new framework for the next generation of the best estimate plus uncertainty licensing methodology that USNRC developed previously. In order to come to that level of maturity it is necessary to communicate the methodology to scientific, design and regulatory stakeholders for discussion and debates. This paper is the first step to establish this communication.
Unal, Cetin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Williams, Brian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Clure, Patrick [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nelson, Ralph A [IDAHO NATIONAL LAB
Regulatory Assistance, Stakeholder Outreach, and Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning Activities in Support of Marine and Hydrokinetic Energy Deployment
This fiscal year 2011 progress report summarizes activities carried out under DOE Water Power Task 2.1.7, Permitting and Planning. Activities under Task 2.1.7 address the concerns of a wide range of stakeholders with an interest in the development of the marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy industry, including regulatory and resource management agencies, tribes, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. Objectives for Task 2.1.7 are the following: � to work with stakeholders to streamline the MHK regulatory permitting process � to work with stakeholders to gather information on needs and priorities for environmental assessment of MHK development � to communicate research findings and directions to the MHK industry and stakeholders � to engage in spatial planning processes in order to further the development of the MHK industry. These objectives are met through three subtasks, each of which is described in this report: � 220.127.116.11�Regulatory Assistance � 220.127.116.11�Stakeholder Outreach � 22.214.171.124�Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning. As MHK industry partners work with the regulatory community and stakeholders to plan, site, permit, and license MHK technologies, they have an interest in a predictable, efficient, and transparent process. Stakeholders and regulators have an interest in processes that result in sustainable use of ocean space with minimal effects to existing ocean users. Both stakeholders and regulators have an interest in avoiding legal challenges by meeting the intent of federal, state, and local laws that govern siting and operation of MHK technologies. The intention of work under Task 2.1.7 is to understand and work to address these varied interests, reduce conflict, identify efficiencies, and ultimately reduce the regulatory costs, time, and potential environmental impacts associated with developing, siting, permitting, and deploying MHK systems.
Geerlofs, Simon H.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Blake, Kara M.; Hanna, Luke A.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for photovoltaic system modeling.
We report an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for modeling DC energy from photovoltaic systems. We consider two systems, each comprised of a single module using either crystalline silicon or CdTe cells, and located either at Albuquerque, NM, or Golden, CO. Output from a PV system is predicted by a sequence of models. Uncertainty in the output of each model is quantified by empirical distributions of each model's residuals. We sample these distributions to propagate uncertainty through the sequence of models to obtain an empirical distribution for each PV system's output. We considered models that: (1) translate measured global horizontal, direct and global diffuse irradiance to plane-of-array irradiance; (2) estimate effective irradiance from plane-of-array irradiance; (3) predict cell temperature; and (4) estimate DC voltage, current and power. We found that the uncertainty in PV system output to be relatively small, on the order of 1% for daily energy. Four alternative models were considered for the POA irradiance modeling step; we did not find the choice of one of these models to be of great significance. However, we observed that the POA irradiance model introduced a bias of upwards of 5% of daily energy which translates directly to a systematic difference in predicted energy. Sensitivity analyses relate uncertainty in the PV system output to uncertainty arising from each model. We found that the residuals arising from the POA irradiance and the effective irradiance models to be the dominant contributors to residuals for daily energy, for either technology or location considered. This analysis indicates that efforts to reduce the uncertainty in PV system output should focus on improvements to the POA and effective irradiance models.
Hansen, Clifford W.; Pohl, Andrew Phillip; Jordan, Dirk [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO] [National Center for Photovoltaics, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Handling of Beyond Design Basis Events for Nuclear Power Reactors
Presenter: Bill Reckley, Chief, Policy and Support Branch, Japan Lessons-Learned Project Directorate, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
E-Print Network 3.0 - adipor1 regulatory region Sample Search...
was lower in mi... regulatory machinery of the cell. Keywords: Dicer; gene regulatory networks; miRNA targets; micro Source: Bartel, David - Whitehead Institute for Biomedical...
Observational constraints on holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant
We use observational data from Type Ia Supernovae (SN), Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and observational Hubble data (OHD), and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to constrain the cosmological scenario of holographic dark energy with varying gravitational constant. We consider both flat and non-flat background geometry, and we present the corresponding constraints and contour-plots of the model parameters. We conclude that the scenario is compatible with observations. In 1? we find ?{sub ?0} = 0.72{sup +0.03}{sub ?0.03}, ?{sub k0} = ?0.0013{sup +0.0130}{sub ?0.0040}, c = 0.80{sup +0.19}{sub ?0.14} and ?{sub G}?G'/G = ?0.0025{sup +0.0080}{sub ?0.0050}, while for the present value of the dark energy equation-of-state parameter we obtain w{sub 0} = ?1.04{sup +0.15}{sub ?0.20}.
Lu, Jianbo; Xu, Lixin [Institute of Theoretical Physics, School of Physics and Optoelectronic Technology, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 (China); Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [College of Mathematics and Physics, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Setare, M.R., E-mail: email@example.com, E-mail: email@example.com, E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com, E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Science of Bijar, University of Kurdistan, Bijar (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
Fractal dimensions of the galaxy distribution varying by steps?
The structure of the large scale distribution of the galaxies have been widely studied since the publication of the first catalogs. Since large redshift samples are available, their analyses seem to show fractal correlations up to the observational limits. The value of the fractal dimension(s) calculated by different authors have become the object of a large debate, as have been the value of the expected transition from fractality to a possible large scale homogeneity. Moreover, some authors have proposed that different scaling regimes might be discerned at different lenght scales. To go further on into this issue, we have applied the correlation integral method to the wider sample currently available. We therefore obtain a fractal dimension of the galaxy distribution which seems to vary by steps whose width might be related to the organization hierarchy observed for the galaxies. This result could explain some of the previous results obtained by other authors from the analyses of less complete catalogs and maybe reconcile their apparent discrepancy. However, the method applied here needs to be further checked, since it produces odd fluctuations at each transition scale, which need to be thoroughly explained.
Marie-Noelle Celerier; Reuben Thieberger
The Uncertainties in the 22Ne + alpha-capture Reaction Rates and the Production of the Heavy Magnesium Isotopes in Asymptotic Giant Branch Stars of Intermediate Mass
We present new rates for the 22Ne(alpha, n)25Mg and 22Ne(alpha,gamma)26Mg reactions, with uncertainties that have been considerably reduced compared to previous estimates, and we study how these new rates affect the production of the heavy magnesium isotopes in models of intermediate mass Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars of different initial compositions. All the models have deep third dredge-up, hot bottom burning and mass loss. Calculations have been performed using the two most commonly used estimates of the 22Ne + alpha rates as well as the new recommended rates, and with combinations of their upper and lower limits. The main result of the present study is that with the new rates, uncertainties on the production of isotopes from Mg to P coming from the 22Ne + alpha-capture rates have been considerably reduced. We have therefore removed one of the important sources of uncertainty to effect models of AGB stars. We have studied the effects of varying the mass-loss rate on nucleosynthesis and discuss other uncertainties related to the physics employed in the computation of stellar structure, such as the modeling of convection, the inclusion of a partial mixing zone and the definition of convective borders. These uncertainties are found to be much larger than those coming from 22Ne + alpha-capture rates, when using our new estimates. Much effort is needed to improve the situation for AGB models.
A. Karakas; M. Lugaro; M. Wiescher; J. Goerres; C. Ugalde
Environmental Regulatory Update Table, May/June 1992
This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number_sign}.
This report contains a bi-monthly update of environmental regulatory activity that is of interest to the Department of Energy. It is provided to DOE operations and contractor staff to assist and support environmental management programs by tracking regulatory developments. Any proposed regulation that raises significant issues for any DOE operation should be reported to the Office of Environmental Guidance (EH-23) as soon as possible so that the Department can make its concerns known to the appropriate regulatory agency. Items of particular interest to EH-23 are indicated by a shading of the RU{number sign}.
The waste isolation pilot plant regulatory compliance program
The passage of the WIPP Land Withdrawal Act of 1992 (LWA) marked a turning point for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) program. It established a Congressional mandate to open the WIPP in as short a time as possible, thereby initiating the process of addressing this nation`s transuranic (TRU) waste problem. The DOE responded to the LWA by shifting the priority at the WIPP from scientific investigations to regulatory compliance and the completion of prerequisites for the initiation of operations. Regulatory compliance activities have taken four main focuses: (1) preparing regulatory submittals; (2) aggressive schedules; (3) regulator interface; and (4) public interactions
Mewhinney, J.A. [U.S. Dept. of Energy, Carlsbad, NM (United States); Kehrman, R.F. [Westinghouse Electric Corp., Carlsbad, NM (United States)
Direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations: what it takes
The uncertainty principle being a cornerstone of quantum mechanics, it is surprising that in nearly 90 years there have been no direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations. This lacuna was due to the absence of two essential ingredients: appropriate measures of measurement error (and disturbance), and precise formulations of such relations that are {\\em universally valid}and {\\em directly testable}. We formulate two distinct forms of direct tests, based on different measures of error. We present a prototype protocol for a direct test of measurement uncertainty relations in terms of {\\em value deviation errors} (hitherto considered nonfeasible), highlighting the lack of universality of these relations. This shows that the formulation of universal, directly testable measurement uncertainty relations for {\\em state-dependent} error measures remains an important open problem. Recent experiments that were claimed to constitute invalidations of Heisenberg's error-disturbance relation are shown to conform with the spirit of Heisenberg's principle if interpreted as direct tests of measurement uncertainty relations for error measures that quantify {\\em distances between observables}.
Paul Busch; Neil Stevens
Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty
Solar irradiance data . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accuracy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Solar Resourcev Uncertainty In Solar Resource: Forecasting
Marquez, Ricardo
Understanding Variability and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with the Electric Power System
and Uncertainty of Photovoltaics for Integration with themodels and datasets. Photovoltaics fall under the broader
Mills, Andrew
Modified Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Uncertainty Analysis
This paper describes a methodology of characterizing important phenomena, which is also part of a broader research by the authors called 'Modified PIRT'. The methodology provides robust process of phenomena identification and ranking process for more precise quantification of uncertainty. It is a two-step process of identifying and ranking methodology based on thermal-hydraulics (TH) importance as well as uncertainty importance. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) has been used for as a formal approach for TH identification and ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the TH model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. This part uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions. The proposed methodology was demonstrated by developing a PIRT for large break loss of coolant accident LBLOCA for the LOFT integral facility with highest core power (test LB-1). (authors)
Gol-Mohamad, Mohammad P.; Modarres, Mohammad; Mosleh, Ali [University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)
Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.
Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subset of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.
Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Brown, Theresa Jean; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton
LDRD Final Report: Capabilities for Uncertainty in Predictive Science.
Predictive simulation of systems comprised of numerous interconnected, tightly coupled com-ponents promises to help solve many problems of scientific and national interest. Howeverpredictive simulation of such systems is extremely challenging due to the coupling of adiverse set of physical and biological length and time scales. This report investigates un-certainty quantification methods for such systems that attempt to exploit their structure togain computational efficiency. The traditional layering of uncertainty quantification aroundnonlinear solution processes is inverted to allow for heterogeneous uncertainty quantificationmethods to be applied to each component in a coupled system. Moreover this approachallows stochastic dimension reduction techniques to be applied at each coupling interface.The mathematical feasibility of these ideas is investigated in this report, and mathematicalformulations for the resulting stochastically coupled nonlinear systems are developed.3
Phipps, Eric T.; Eldred, Michael S.; Salinger, Andrew G.; Webster, Clayton G.
SEC Confidential Treatment Orders: Balancing Competing Regulatory Objectives
This study examines how the Securities and Exchange Commission balances competing regulatory objectives in its decisions to approve requests to withhold proprietary information from firms' financial reports. The confidential treatment process...
Thompson, Anne Margaret
Regulatory guidance for lightning protection in nuclear power plants
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was engaged by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) to develop the technical basis for regulatory guidance to address design and implementation practices for lightning protection systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Lightning protection is becoming increasingly important with the advent of digital and low-voltage analog systems in NPPs. These systems have the potential to be more vulnerable than older analog systems to the resulting power surges and electromagnetic interference (EMI) when lightning strikes facilities or power lines. This paper discusses the technical basis for guidance to licensees and applicants covered in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.204, Guidelines for Lightning Protection of Nuclear Power Plants, issued August 2005. RG 1.204 describes guidance for practices that are acceptable to the NRC staff for protecting nuclear power structures and systems from direct lightning strikes and the resulting secondary effects. (authors)
Kisner, R. A.; Wilgen, J. B.; Ewing, P. D.; Korsah, K. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P. O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6007 (United States); Antonescu, C. E. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555 (United States)
Regulatory Guidance for Lightning Protection in Nuclear Power Plants
Abstract - Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was engaged by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) to develop the technical basis for regulatory guidance to address design and implementation practices for lightning protection systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Lightning protection is becoming increasingly important with the advent of digital and low-voltage analog systems in NPPs. These systems have the potential to be more vulnerable than older analog systems to the resulting power surges and electromagnetic interference (EMI) when lightning strikes facilities or power lines. This paper discusses the technical basis for guidance to licensees and applicants covered in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.204, Guidelines for Lightning Protection of Nuclear Power Plants, issued August 2005. RG 1.204 describes guidance for practices that are acceptable to the NRC staff for protecting nuclear power structures and systems from direct lightning strikes and the resulting secondary effects.
Kisner, Roger A [ORNL; Wilgen, John B [ORNL; Ewing, Paul D [ORNL; Korsah, Kofi [ORNL; Antonescu, Christina E [ORNL
NGNP Project Regulatory Gap Analysis for Modular HTGRs
The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project Regulatory Gap Analysis (RGA) for High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors (HTGR) was conducted to evaluate existing regulatory requirements and guidance against the design characteristics specific to a generic modular HTGR. This final report presents results and identifies regulatory gaps concerning current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing requirements that apply to the modular HTGR design concept. This report contains appendices that highlight important HTGR licensing issues that were found during the RGA study. The information contained in this report will be used to further efforts in reconciling HTGR-related gaps in the NRC licensing structure, which has to date largely focused on light water reactor technology.
Wayne Moe
Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Reducing Regulatory Burden RFI...
6 Fed. Reg. 75798 (Dec. 5, 2011) Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Reducing Regulatory Burden RFI, 76 Fed. Reg. 75798 (Dec. 5, 2011) The Edison Electric Institute (EEI) is submitting...
7 Fed. Reg. 28518 (May 15, 2012) Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Reducing Regulatory Burden RFI, 77 Fed. Reg. 28518 (May 15, 2012) The Edison Electric Institute (EEI) is submitting...
Inferring regulatory networks from multiple sources of genomic data
(cont.) algorithm to identify the regulatory models from protein-DNA binding and gene expression data. These models to a large extent agree with the knowledge of gene regulation pertaining to the corresponding regulators. ...
Yeang, Chen-Hsiang, 1969-
The Michigan regulatory incentives study for electric utilities
This is the final report of Phase I of the Michigan Regulatory Incentives Study for Electric Utilities, a three-phase review of Michigan's regulatory system and its effects on resource selection by electric utilities. The goal of Phase I is to identify and analyze financial incentive mechanisms that encourage selection of resources in accord with the principles of integrated resource planning (IRP) or least-cost planning (LCP). Subsequent study phases will involve further analysis of options and possibly a collaborative formal effort to propose regulatory changes. The Phase I analysis proceeded in three steps: (1) identification and review of existing regulatory practices that affect utilities; selection of resources, particularly DSM; (2) preliminary analysis of ten financial mechanisms, and selection of three for further study; (3) detailed analysis of the three mechanisms, including consideration of how they could be implemented in Michigan and financial modeling of their likely impacts on utilities and ratepayers.
Reid, M.W.; Weaver, E.M. (Barakat and Chamberlin, Inc., Oakland, CA (United States)) [Barakat and Chamberlin, Inc., Oakland, CA (United States)
alters fyn regulatory: Topics by E-print Network
human genome where many TFsRegulatory Analysis for Exploring Human Disease Progression Dustin T. Holloway1 , Mark Kon2 have been built and tested for 153 human TFs. These...
Incorporating uncertainty into electric utility projections and decisions
This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The mean'' value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility's net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.
Hanson, D.A.
This paper focuses on how electric utility companies can respond in their decision making to uncertain variables. Here we take a mean- variance type of approach. The ``mean`` value is an expected cost, on a discounted value basis. We assume that management has risk preferences incorporating a tradeoff between the mean and variance in the utility`s net income. Decisions that utilities are faced with can be classified into two types: ex ante and ex post. The ex ante decisions need to be made prior to the uncertainty being revealed and the ex post decision can be postponed until after the uncertainty is revealed. Intuitively, we can say that the ex ante decisions provide a hedge against the uncertainties and the ex post decisions allow the negative outcomes of uncertain variables to be partially mitigated, dampening the losses. An example of an ex post decision is how the system is operated i.e., unit dispatch, and in some cases switching among types of fuels, say with different sulfur contents. For example, if gas prices go up, natural gas combined cycle units are likely to be dispatched at lower capacity factors. If SO{sub 2} emission allowance prices go up, a utility may seek to switch into a lower sulfur coal. Here we assume that regulated electric utilities do have some incentive to lower revenue requirements and hence an incentive to lower the electric rates needed for the utility to break even, thereby earning a fair return on invested capital. This paper presents the general approach first, including applications to capacity expansion and system dispatch. Then a case study is presented focusing on the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments including SO{sub 2} emissions abatement and banking of allowances under uncertainty. It is concluded that the emission banking decisions should not be made in isolation but rather all the uncertainties in demand, fuel prices, technology performance etc., should be included in the uncertainty analysis affecting emission banking.
Utility & Regulatory Factors Affecting Cogeneration & Independent Power Plant Design & Operation
UTILITY & REGULATORY FACTORS AFFECTiNG COGENERATION & INDEPENDENT POWER PLANT DESIGN & OPERATION Richard P. Felak General Electric Company Schenectady, New York ABSTRACT In specifying a cogeneration or independent power plant, the owner... should be especially aware of the influences which electric utilities and regulatory bodies will have on key parameters such as size, efficiency, design. reliability/ availabilitY, operating capabilities and modes, etc. This paper will note examples...
Felak, R. P.
Panel Data Analysis of Regulatory Factors Shaping Environmental Performance
and the influence of regulatory factors in general, this paper examines a specific demonstration of environmental perfor- mance: biological oxygen demand (BOD) wastewater dis- charges by large (�major�) municipal wastewater treatment plants in Kansas during... example, limit levels). To analyze the effects of these regulatory factors on envi- ronmental performance, this particular empirical analysis examines the wastewater discharges by large municipal wastewater treatment facilities in the state of Kansas...
Earnhart, Dietrich H.
Computer-aided-design of agricultural drains under uncertainty
to be constructed. Using drainage helps dissolve and remove some excess salts and alkal ines. The balance between the amount of salts brought in by irrigation and the amount taken out by drainage is referred to as the salt balance of the area (Scofi eld 1940... for the depth, D, and spacing, L. D, L & 0 (4. 5) This MPP did not include uncertainty. In the next section uncertainty will be incorporated into the MPP. The ful I deterministic NPP is shown below: 35 Min [Ci + C2 + C3 + C4 + s. t. L2Qd D + d' ? (d...
Garcia, Luis Alfredo
Calculation defines uncertainty of unaccounted-for gas
A method for defining the uncertainty of the unaccounted-for gas figure and for identifying and isolating causes of significant changes in this figure will lead to a more accurate accounting of volumes in high-pressure natural-gas transmission systems. An error analysis can be employed to ascertain the uncertainty on the unaccounted-for gas figure for such systems along with a simple method for recognizing the magnitude and time of significant changes in this figure. In addition, a better understanding of factors affecting meter accuracy will lead to more precise gas measurements.
Norman, R.; Jepson, P.
Regulatory and extra-regulatory testing to demonstrate radioactive material packaging safety
Packages for the transportation of radioactive material must meet performance criteria to assure safety and environmental protection. The stringency of the performance criteria is based on the degree of hazard of the material being transported. Type B packages are used for transporting large quantities of radioisotopes (in terms of A{sub 2} quantities). These packages have the most stringent performance criteria. Material with less than an A{sub 2} quantity are transported in Type A packages. These packages have less stringent performance criteria. Transportation of LSA and SCO materials must be in {open_quotes}strong-tight{close_quotes} packages. The performance requirements for the latter packages are even less stringent. All of these package types provide a high level of safety for the material being transported. In this paper, regulatory tests that are used to demonstrate this safety will be described. The responses of various packages to these tests will be shown. In addition, the response of packages to extra-regulatory tests will be discussed. The results of these tests will be used to demonstrate the high level of safety provided to workers, the public, and the environment by packages used for the transportation of radioactive material.
Ammerman, D.J.
Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit (Poster)
The Regulatory and Permitting Information Desktop (RAPID) Toolkit combines the former Geothermal Regulatory Roadmap, National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Database, and other resources into a Web-based tool that gives the regulatory and utility-scale geothermal developer communities rapid and easy access to permitting information. RAPID currently comprises five tools - Permitting Atlas, Regulatory Roadmap, Resource Library, NEPA Database, and Best Practices. A beta release of an additional tool, the Permitting Wizard, is scheduled for late 2014. Because of the huge amount of information involved, RAPID was developed in a wiki platform to allow industry and regulatory agencies to maintain the content in the future so that it continues to provide relevant and accurate information to users. In 2014, the content was expanded to include regulatory requirements for utility-scale solar and bulk transmission development projects. Going forward, development of the RAPID Toolkit will focus on expanding the capabilities of current tools, developing additional tools, including additional technologies, and continuing to increase stakeholder involvement.
Young, K. R.; Levine, A.
Engineered barriers including cementitious barriers are used at sites disposing or contaminated with low-level radioactive waste to enhance performance of the natural environment with respect to controlling the potential spread of contaminants. Drivers for using cementitious barriers include: high radionuclide inventory, radionuclide characteristics (e.g., long half-live, high mobility due to chemical form/speciation, waste matrix properties, shallow water table, and humid climate that provides water for leaching the waste). This document comprises the first in a series of reports being prepared for the Cementitious Barriers Partnership. The document is divided into two parts which provide a summary of: (1) existing experience in the assessment of performance of cementitious materials used for radioactive waste management and disposal and (2) sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approaches that have been applied for assessments. Each chapter is organized into five parts: Introduction, Regulatory Considerations, Specific Examples, Summary of Modeling Approaches and Conclusions and Needs. The objective of the report is to provide perspective on the state of the practice for conducting assessments for facilities involving cementitious barriers and to identify opportunities for improvements to the existing approaches. Examples are provided in two contexts: (1) performance assessments conducted for waste disposal facilities and (2) performance assessment-like analyses (e.g., risk assessments) conducted under other regulatory regimes. The introductory sections of each section provide a perspective on the purpose of performance assessments and different roles of cementitious materials for radioactive waste management. Significant experience with assessments of cementitious materials associated with radioactive waste disposal concepts exists in the US Department of Energy Complex and the commercial nuclear sector. Recently, the desire to close legacy facilities has created a need to assess the behavior of cementitious materials for applications in environmental remediation and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) applications. The ability to assess the use and benefits of cementitious materials for these applications can significantly affect decisions related to cleanup activities. For example the need for costly remedial actions may not be necessary if existing or new cementitious barriers were adequately represented. The sections dealing with regulatory considerations include summaries of the different regulations that are relevant for various applications involving cementitious materials. A summary of regulatory guidance and/or policies pertaining to performance assessment of cementitious materials and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses is also provided in the following chapters. Numerous examples of specific applications are provided in each report. The examples are organized into traditional waste disposal applications (performance assessments), applications related to environmental remediation and D&D, and reactor and spent fuel related assessments. Sections that discuss specific facilities or sites contain: (1) descriptions of the role of the cementitious barriers or sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, (2) parameter assumptions and conceptual models, and (3) a relative discussion of the significance in the context of the assessment. Examples from both the U.S. Department of Energy Sites and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission are provided to illustrate the variety of applications and approaches that have been used. In many cases, minimal credit was taken for cementitious barriers. However, in some of those cases, benefits of being able to take credit for barriers were identified. The examples included: (1) disposal facilities (vaults, trenches, tank closures, cementitious waste forms and containers, etc.), (2) environmental remediation (old disposal facilities), (3) reactor and large structure decommissioning, and (4) spent fuel pools. These examples were selected to provide a perspective on the various ne
Langton, C.; Burns, H.
Essays on Energy and Regulatory Compliance
, the 10-second moving average readings for the three regulated gases (hydrocarbons, nitric oxide, and carbon monoxide) must be below the applicable test standard, which varies by vehicle, vehicle year and weight. The test takes 90 seconds, though a 15...-test) 65.53 39.60 34.19 35.99 Carbon monoxide 0.0056 0.0028 0.0029 0.0031 23.61 12.19 13.03 13.77 Nitric oxide 0.0240 0.0107 0.0112 0.0118 33.71 15.30 16.37 17.12 Carbon dioxide 0.3109 0.1605 0.0466 0.0475 329.70 183.25 85.62 72.25 Fixed e ects...
Cancho Diez, Cesar
Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification*
1 Polynomial regression with derivative information in nuclear reactor uncertainty quantification in the outputs. The usual difficulties in modeling the work of the nuclear reactor models include the large size, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA b Nuclear Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory
Anitescu, Mihai
Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon
Uncertainty, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair, Irreversibility, Precaution and the Social Cost of Carbon Alan Ingham and Alistair Ulph Tyndall Centre for Climate International Seminar on the Social Cost of Carbon, London, 7th July 2003. #12;2 Summary In this paper we
Watson, Andrew
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Katz, Richard
The Updated MSW Analysis and the Standard Solar Model Uncertainties
We update the analysis of the MSW and general astrophysical solutions to the combined solar neutrino observations by including the GALLEX II result. We also show that our parametrized flux uncertainties are equivalent to the Monte-Carlo results of Bahcall and Ulrich.
Naoya Hata; Paul Langacker
NON-DOUBLE-COUPLE EARTHQUAKES: NET FORCES AND UNCERTAINTIES G.R. Foulger, B.R. Julian University-980) to include net forces in the mechanisms. Net forces are theoretically required to describe earthquakes) waves cannot resolve sources such as vertical dipoles. When source mechanisms include net forces, even
Foulger, G. R.
The Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and
, inflation, variation of GDP growth, variation of inflation Intl: property rights protection, rule of law.340 international sample diff = 0.408 Result The link between investment and stock prices is even weaker whenThe Real Effects of Political Uncertainty: Elections, Information Flow, and Investment Efficiency
Lin, Xiaodong
Robust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty
. Introduction Autonomous vehicles such as Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) need to be able to plan trajectories; prior work showed that a UAV operating at a constant altitude as well as other autonomous vehicles canRobust Path Planning and Feedback Design under Stochastic Uncertainty Lars Blackmore Autonomous
Williams, Brian C.
and required corrections for remaining water content. Frozen sediments did not lose Hg during a 72-day storage of the analysis (while adhering to strict QA/QC criteria) produced compounded uncertainties of ±11 and ±29% in Hg to correctly evaluate trends and remediation efforts. Keywords: Florida Everglades, Lake Erie, mercury
Gottgens, Hans
Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty
Coal supply and cost under technological and environmental uncertainty Submitted in partial chapters. My conversations with Kurt Walzer at Clean Air Task Force and Rory McIlmoil at Coal Valley Wind Technology Laboratory. I did not complete this work alone. I had a lot of help along the way. I would like
deterministic forward commodity price which, in most cases, historical data demonstrates to be quite volatileA REACTIVE APPROACH FOR MINING PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY Meimei Zhang and operating cash flow. This industry is usually considered high risk because of historically volatile
Duffy, Ken
Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data
Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.
Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)
Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production
- namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power
POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO-THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Car e1, M.P. Nowak2, W. Romisch2 Forschungsgemeinschaft. leads to a tremendous increase in the complex- ity of the traditional power optimization mod- els-burning) thermal units, pumped-storage hydro plants and delivery con- tracts and describe an optimization model
R�misch, Werner
POWER SCHEDULING IN A HYDRO�THERMAL SYSTEM UNDER UNCERTAINTY C.C. Car�e 1 , M.P. Nowak 2 , W. R in the complex� ity of the traditional power optimization mod� els. The remedy we propose is decomposition which�storage hydro plants and delivery con� tracts and describe an optimization model for its least�cost operation
Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty
secondary recovery industry. Secondary recovery forestalls depletion of non-renewable resources and avoidsStochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under compositional uncertainty and Optimization Program #12;2 #12;3 Stochastic methods for improving secondary production decisions under
de Weck, Olivier L.
CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis
1 CSC412: Uncertainty & Learning in AI . Instructor: Sam Roweis . Tutor: Y.W. Teh . Lectures: MW10 inherently stochastic behaviour in the world A B C D E . Databases -- traditional DB technology cannot answer filterting (e.g. Amazon) Other Related Applications . Stochastic Signal Processing -- denoising, source
Roweis, Sam
Prediction under uncertainty in reservoir modeling S. Subbeya,*, M. Christiea
. Firstly, multiple reservoir realizations are generated using a new stochastic algorithm. This involves by Elsevier B.V. Keywords: Uncertainty; History matching; Stochastic algorithm; Bayesian framework; Maximum:10.1016/j.petrol.2004.02.011 * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: firstname.lastname@example.com (S
Sambridge, Malcolm
Uncertainty quantification for large-scale ocean circulation predictions.
Uncertainty quantificatio in climate models is challenged by the sparsity of the available climate data due to the high computational cost of the model runs. Another feature that prevents classical uncertainty analyses from being easily applicable is the bifurcative behavior in the climate data with respect to certain parameters. A typical example is the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. The maximum overturning stream function exhibits discontinuity across a curve in the space of two uncertain parameters, namely climate sensitivity and CO{sub 2} forcing. We develop a methodology that performs uncertainty quantificatio in the presence of limited data that have discontinuous character. Our approach is two-fold. First we detect the discontinuity location with a Bayesian inference, thus obtaining a probabilistic representation of the discontinuity curve location in presence of arbitrarily distributed input parameter values. Furthermore, we developed a spectral approach that relies on Polynomial Chaos (PC) expansions on each sides of the discontinuity curve leading to an averaged-PC representation of the forward model that allows efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation. The methodology is tested on synthetic examples of discontinuous data with adjustable sharpness and structure.
Safta, Cosmin; Debusschere, Bert J.; Najm, Habib N.; Sargsyan, Khachik
Commitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems
on classical combinatorial optimization problems [23]: set cover, minimum spanning tree, Steiner tree, maximum structures, with the notable exception of Gupta and P´al's work on stochastic Steiner Tree [9]. SecondCommitment Under Uncertainty: Two-Stage Stochastic Matching Problems Irit Katriel , Claire Kenyon
Mathieu, Claire
Uncertainties analysis of fission fraction for reactor antineutrino experiments
Reactor antineutrino experiment are used to study neutrino oscillation, search for signatures of nonstandard neutrino interaction, and monitor reactor operation for safeguard application. Reactor simulation is an important source of uncertainties for a reactor neutrino experiment. Commercial code is used for reactor simulation to evaluate fission fraction in Daya Bay neutrino experiment, but the source code doesn't open to our researcher results from commercial secret. In this study, The open source code DRAGON was improved to calculate the fission rates of the four most important isotopes in fissions, $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu, and then was validated for PWRs using the Takahama-3 benchmark. The fission fraction results are consistent with those of MIT's results. Then, fission fraction of Daya Bay reactor core was calculated by using improved DRAGON code, and the fission fraction calculated by DRAGON agreed well with these calculated by SCIENCE. The average deviation less than 5\\% for all the four isotopes. The correlation coefficient matrix between $^{235}$U,$^{238}$U,$^{239}$Pu and $^{241}$Pu were also studied using DRAGON, and then the uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction was calculated by using the correlation coefficient matrix. The uncertainty of the antineutrino flux by the fission fraction simulation is 0.6\\% per core for Daya Bay antineutrino experiment. The uncertainties source of fission fraction calculation need further to be studied in the future.
X. B. Ma; F. Lu; L. Z. Wang; Y. X. Chen; W. L. Zhong; F. P. An
Impact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance
in load and generation are modeled as random variables and the output of the power flow computationImpact of Power Generation Uncertainty on Power System Static Performance Yu Christine Chen, Xichen--The rapid growth in renewable energy resources such as wind and solar generation introduces significant
Liberzon, Daniel
Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model
Robust Efficient Frontier Analysis with a Separable Uncertainty Model Seung-Jean Kim Stephen Boyd efficient frontier, i.e., the optimal trade-off curve in terms of worst-case MV preference, as the extension of the efficient frontier to the worst-case MV analysis setting. We establish some basic properties of the robust
A Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties
control, consists to use a two-level resolution scheme: an off-line scheduling level builds upA Cooperative Approach for Job Shop Scheduling under Uncertainties C. BRIANDa,1 , S. OURARIb and B on job shop scheduling problems in a cooperative environment. Unlike classical deterministic approaches
Briand, Cyril
Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract
Optimal Storage Policies with Wind Forecast Uncertainties [Extended Abstract] Nicolas Gast EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland email@example.com Dan-Cristian Tomozei EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland email@example.com Jean-Yves Le Boudec EPFL, IC/LCA2 1015 Lausanne Switzerland jean
Dalang, Robert C.
Performance Measurement Under Increasing Environmental Uncertainty In The Context of
-2 Fuzzy Logic Based Robotic Sailing Naisan Benatar, Uwe Aickelin and Jonathan M. Garibaldi Member on fuzzy logic, operating under uncertainty, is a sub- ject area which has been somewhat ignored to be drawn. Keywords: Interval Type-2 Fuzzy, Robot Boat control, Fuzzy Control, Performance measures
Quantification of Variability and Uncertainty in Emission H. Christopher Frey
and uncertainty for selected examples, including NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants and CO, NOx in emissions from one source to another within a category. Advances in methodology and computing power enable of NOx from electric utility power plants; and (2) emissions of CO, NOx, and hydrocarbons (HC) from light
Frey, H. Christopher
Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty
Oil and Gas Production Optimization; Lost Potential due to Uncertainty Steinar M. Elgsaeter Olav.ntnu.no) Abstract: The information content in measurements of offshore oil and gas production is often low, and when in the context of offshore oil and gas fields, can be considered the total output of production wells, a mass
A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical Parameters
A New Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Methodology for Frequency Domain Analysis of Wave Energy Converters with Periodically Varying Physical of Mechanical Engineering) ABSTRACT Within a wave energy converter's operational bandwidth, device operation
Victoria, University of
The Effects of Varying Task Priorities on Language Production by Young and Older Adults
The present study compared how varying task priorities affected young and older adults' language production. Both young and older adults responded to monetary incentives to vary their performance when simultaneously talking ...
Kemper, Susan; Schmalzried, RaLynn Cheri; Herman, Ruth; Mohankumar, Deepthi
Uncertainty of calorimeter measurements at NREL's high flux solar furnace
The uncertainties of the calorimeter and concentration measurements at the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are discussed. Two calorimeter types have been used to date. One is an array of seven commercially available circular foil calorimeters (gardon or heat flux gages) for primary concentrator peak flux (up to 250 W/cm{sup 2}). The second is a cold-water calorimeter designed and built by the University of Chicago to measure the average exit power of the reflective compound parabolic secondary concentrator used at the HFSF (over 3.3 kW across a 1.6cm{sup {minus}2} exit aperture, corresponding to a flux of about 2 kW/cm{sup 2}). This paper discussed the uncertainties of the calorimeter and pyrheliometer measurements and resulting concentration calculations. The measurement uncertainty analysis is performed according to the ASME/ANSI standard PTC 19.1 (1985). Random and bias errors for each portion of the measurement are analyzed. The results show that as either the power or the flux is reduced, the uncertainties increase. Another calorimeter is being designed for a new, refractive secondary which will use a refractive material to produce a higher average flux (5 kW/cm{sup 2}) than the reflective secondary. The new calorimeter will use a time derivative of the fluid temperature as a key measurement of the average power out of the secondary. A description of this calorimeter and test procedure is also presented, along with a pre-test estimate of major sources of uncertainty. 8 refs., 4 figs., 3 tabs.
Bingham, C.E.
A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related statistical inference
A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related statistical inference Technical Report No: ISINE Institute North-East Centre, Tezpur, Assam-784028 #12;A time varying GARCH (p, q) model and related varying GARCH (tvGARCH (p, q)) model and consider certain related inferential problems. A two-step local
Bandyopadhyay, Antar
Multi-lane Vehicle-to-Vehicle Networks with Time-Varying Radio Ranges
Multi-lane Vehicle-to-Vehicle Networks with Time-Varying Radio Ranges: Information Propagation propagation speed in multi-lane vehicle-to-vehicle networks such as roads or highways. We focus on the impact of time-varying radio ranges and of multiple lanes of vehicles, varying in speed and in density. We assess
ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF ESTIMATES FOR A TIME-VARYING PARAMETER IN A HARMONIC MODEL WITH MULTIPLE harmonic regression models are useful for cases where harmonic parameters appear to be time-varying. Least, harmonic regression, signal processing, sound analysis, time-varying parameters, weighted least squares
Irizarry, Rafael A.
Regulatory cross-cutting topics for fuel cycle facilities.
This report overviews crosscutting regulatory topics for nuclear fuel cycle facilities for use in the Fuel Cycle Research&Development Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation and Screening study. In particular, the regulatory infrastructure and analysis capability is assessed for the following topical areas:Fire Regulations (i.e., how applicable are current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and/or International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) fire regulations to advance fuel cycle facilities)Consequence Assessment (i.e., how applicable are current radionuclide transportation tools to support risk-informed regulations and Level 2 and/or 3 PRA) While not addressed in detail, the following regulatory topic is also discussed:Integrated Security, Safeguard and Safety Requirement (i.e., how applicable are current Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulations to future fuel cycle facilities which will likely be required to balance the sometimes conflicting Material Accountability, Security, and Safety requirements.)
Denman, Matthew R.; Brown, Jason; Goldmann, Andrew Scott; Louie, David
Evolutionary conservation of regulatory elements in vertebrate HOX gene clusters
Due to their high degree of conservation, comparisons of DNA sequences among evolutionarily distantly-related genomes permit to identify functional regions in noncoding DNA. Hox genes are optimal candidate sequences for comparative genome analyses, because they are extremely conserved in vertebrates and occur in clusters. We aligned (Pipmaker) the nucleotide sequences of HoxA clusters of tilapia, pufferfish, striped bass, zebrafish, horn shark, human and mouse (over 500 million years of evolutionary distance). We identified several highly conserved intergenic sequences, likely to be important in gene regulation. Only a few of these putative regulatory elements have been previously described as being involved in the regulation of Hox genes, while several others are new elements that might have regulatory functions. The majority of these newly identified putative regulatory elements contain short fragments that are almost completely conserved and are identical to known binding sites for regulatory proteins (Transfac). The conserved intergenic regions located between the most rostrally expressed genes in the developing embryo are longer and better retained through evolution. We document that presumed regulatory sequences are retained differentially in either A or A clusters resulting from a genome duplication in the fish lineage. This observation supports both the hypothesis that the conserved elements are involved in gene regulation and the Duplication-Deletion-Complementation model.
Santini, Simona; Boore, Jeffrey L.; Meyer, Axel
Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: Guidance on uncertainty and use of experts
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquake-caused ground motion will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. Due to large uncertainties in all the geosciences data and in their modeling, multiple model interpretations are often possible. This leads to disagreement among experts, which in the past has led to disagreement on the selection of ground motion for design at a given site. In order to review the present state-of-the-art and improve on the overall stability of the PSHA process, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) co-sponsored a project to provide methodological guidance on how to perform a PSHA. The project has been carried out by a seven-member Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) supported by a large number other experts. The SSHAC reviewed past studies, including the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the EPRI landmark PSHA studies of the 1980`s and examined ways to improve on the present state-of-the-art. The Committee`s most important conclusion is that differences in PSHA results are due to procedural rather than technical differences. Thus, in addition to providing a detailed documentation on state-of-the-art elements of a PSHA, this report provides a series of procedural recommendations. The role of experts is analyzed in detail. Two entities are formally defined-the Technical Integrator (TI) and the Technical Facilitator Integrator (TFI)--to account for the various levels of complexity in the technical issues and different levels of efforts needed in a given study.
Budnitz, R.J.; Apostolakis, G.; Boore, D.M. [and others
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest 1992 edition. Volume 4
The Nuclear Regulatory Commission Information Digest provides a summary of information about the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), NRC's regulatory responsibilities, the activities NRC licenses, and general information on domestic and worldwide nuclear energy. This digest is a compilation of nuclear- and NRC-related data and is designed to provide a quick reference to major facts about the agency and industry it regulates. In general, the data cover 1975 through 1991, with exceptions noted. Information on generating capacity and average capacity factor for operating US commercial nuclear power reactors is obtained from monthly operating reports that are submitted directly to the NRC by the licensee. This information is reviewed by the NRC for consistency only and no independent validation and/or verification is performed.
Olive, K [ed.] [ed.
Regulatory requirements affecting disposal of asbestos-containing waste
Many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities are undergoing decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities. The performance of these activities may generate asbestos-containing waste because asbestos was formerly used in many building materials, including floor tile, sealants, plastics, cement pipe, cement sheets, insulating boards, and insulating cements. The regulatory requirements governing the disposal of these wastes depend on: (1) the percentage of asbestos in the waste and whether the waste is friable (easily crumbled or pulverized); (2) other physical and chemical characteristics of the waste; and (3) the State in which the waste is generated. This Information Brief provides an overview of the environment regulatory requirements affecting disposal of asbestos-containing waste. It does not address regulatory requirements applicable to worker protection promulgated under the Occupational Safety and Health Act (OSHAct), the Mining Safety and Health Act (MSHA), or the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA).
Uncertainty analysis of densities and isotopics: Handling correlations
This paper discusses two cases of correlated parameters in uncertainty analyses: (1) the case of measured mass, density, and volume or spatial dimension correlations; and (2) the case of measured material isotopics, where increasing one atom fraction must cause the others to decrease. In the first case, an equation is derived that has a term due to uncertain density, a term due to uncertain dimensions, and a term due to the correlation between density and dimensions. In a numerical test problem, this equation gives the same result as the standard equation that treats mass and dimensions independently. In the case of isotopics, an equation is derived relating the uncertainty due to uncertain isotopic fractions to the sensitivities to isotopic densities, which are easier to calculate. The equation is verified in a test problem. (authors)
Favorite, J. A.; Armstrong, J. C. [X-Computational Physics Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States); Burr, T. [Computer, Computational, and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, NM 87545 (United States)
Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Nuclear Density Functional Theory
Nuclear density functional theory (DFT) is one of the main theoretical tools used to study the properties of heavy and superheavy elements, or to describe the structure of nuclei far from stability. While on-going efforts seek to better root nuclear DFT in the theory of nuclear forces [see Duguet et al., this issue], energy functionals remain semi-phenomenological constructions that depend on a set of parameters adjusted to experimental data in finite nuclei. In this paper, we review recent efforts to quantify the related uncertainties, and propagate them to model predictions. In particular, we cover the topics of parameter estimation for inverse problems, statistical analysis of model uncertainties and Bayesian inference methods. Illustrative examples are taken from the literature.
N. Schunck; J. D. McDonnell; D. Higdon; J. Sarich; S. M. Wild
The minimum-uncertainty coherent states for Landau levels
The Glauber minimum-uncertainty coherent states with two variables for Landau levels, based on the representation of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra by two different modes, have been studied about four decades ago. Here, we introduce new two-variable coherent states with minimum uncertainty relationship for Landau levels in three different methods: the infinite unitary representation of su(1, 1) is realized in two different methods, first, by consecutive levels with the same energy gaps and also with the same value for z-angular momentum quantum number, then, by shifting z-angular momentum mode number by two units while the energy level remaining the same. Besides, for su(2), whether by lowest Landau levels or Landau levels with lowest z-angular momentum, just one finite unitary representation is introduced. Having constructed the generalized Klauder-Perelomov coherent states, for any of the three representations, we obtain their Glauber coherency by displacement operator of Weyl-Heisenberg algebra.
Dehghani, A. [Physics Department, Payame Noor University, P. O. Box 19395-4697 Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fakhri, H. [Department of Theoretical Physics and Astrophysics, Faculty of Physics, University of Tabriz, P. O. Box 51666-16471 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Mojaveri, B. [Department of Physics, Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, P. O. Box 51745-406 Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)
Uncertainties in nuclear transition matrix elements of neutrinoless ?? decay
To estimate the uncertainties associated with the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} (K=0?/0N) for the 0{sup +} ? 0{sup +} transitions of electron and positron emitting modes of the neutrinoless ?? decay, a statistical analysis has been performed by calculating sets of eight (twelve) different nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} in the PHFB model by employing four different parameterizations of a Hamiltonian with pairing plus multipolar effective two-body interaction and two (three) different parameterizations of Jastrow short range correlations. The averages in conjunction with their standard deviations provide an estimate of the uncertainties associated the nuclear transition matrix elements M{sup (K)} calculated within the PHFB model, the maximum of which turn out to be 13% and 19% owing to the exchange of light and heavy Majorana neutrinos, respectively.
Rath, P. K. [Department of Physics, University of Lucknow, Lucknow-226007 (India)
Uncertainty quantification for CO2 sequestration and enhanced oil recovery
This study develops a statistical method to perform uncertainty quantification for understanding CO2 storage potential within an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) environment at the Farnsworth Unit of the Anadarko Basin in northern Texas. A set of geostatistical-based Monte Carlo simulations of CO2-oil-water flow and reactive transport in the Morrow formation are conducted for global sensitivity and statistical analysis of the major uncertainty metrics: net CO2 injection, cumulative oil production, cumulative gas (CH4) production, and net water injection. A global sensitivity and response surface analysis indicates that reservoir permeability, porosity, and thickness are the major intrinsic reservoir parameters that control net CO2 injection/storage and oil/gas recovery rates. The well spacing and the initial water saturation also have large impact on the oil/gas recovery rates. Further, this study has revealed key insights into the potential behavior and the operational parameters of CO2 sequestration at CO2-EOR s...
Dai, Zhenxue; Fessenden-Rahn, Julianna; Middleton, Richard; Pan, Feng; Jia, Wei; Lee, Si-Yong; McPherson, Brian; Ampomah, William; Grigg, Reid
Climate dynamics and fluid mechanics: Natural variability and related uncertainties
The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change projections. To illustrate the first point, we focus on the large-scale, wind-driven flow of the mid-latitude oceans which contribute in a crucial way to Earth's climate, and to changes therein. We study the low-frequency variability (LFV) of the wind-driven, double-gyre circulation in mid-latitude ocean basins, via the bifurcation sequence that leads from steady states through periodic solutions and on to the chaotic, irregular flows documented in the observations. This sequence involves local, pitchfork and Hopf bifurcations, as well as global, homoclinic ones. The natural climate variability induced by the LFV of the ocean circulation is but one of the causes of uncertainties in climate projections. Another major cause of such uncertainties could reside in the structural instability in the topological sense, of the equations governing climate dynamics, including but not restricted to those of atmospheric and ocean dynamics. We propose a novel approach to understand, and possibly reduce, these uncertainties, based on the concepts and methods of random dynamical systems theory. As a very first step, we study the effect of noise on the topological classes of the Arnol'd family of circle maps, a paradigmatic model of frequency locking as occurring in the nonlinear interactions between the El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and the seasonal cycle. It is shown that the maps' fine-grained resonant landscape is smoothed by the noise, thus permitting their coarse-grained classification. This result is consistent with stabilizing effects of stochastic parametrization obtained in modeling of ENSO phenomenon via some general circulation models.
Michael Ghil; Micka�l D. Chekroun; Eric Simonnet
{sm_bullet} Deterministic 'One Off' analyses as basis for evaluating sensitivity and uncertainty relative to reference case {sm_bullet} Spatial coverage identical to reference case {sm_bullet} Two types of analysis assumptions - Minimax parameter values around reference case conditions - 'What If' cases that change reference case condition and associated parameter values {sm_bullet} No conclusions about likelihood of estimated result other than' qualitative expectation that actual outcome should tend toward reference case estimate
Uncertainty associated with probabilistic prediction of nutrient transport by runoff
and estimating the probability and severity of potential hazards to water quality. The objective of this research was to use PRA to characterize the uncertainty associated with probabilistic determination of the nutrient transport by runoff at two dairies.... Simple simulation models were used to determine the rainfall runoff probability and lagoon overflow probabilities. Phosphorous index method in combination with nutrient application rates and soil test levels was used to determine the presence oF excess...
Jain, Mohit
Quantification Of Margins And Uncertainties: A Bayesian Approach (full Paper)
Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) is 'a formalism for dealing with the reliability of complex technical systems, and the confidence which can be placed in estimates of that reliability.' (Eardleyet al, 2005). In this paper, we show how QMU may be interpreted in the framework of Bayesian statistical inference, using a probabilistic network. The Bayesian approach clarifies the probabilistic underpinnings of the formalism, and shows how the formalism can be used for deciSion-making.
Wallstrom, Timothy C [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Joint measurements of spin, operational locality and uncertainty
Joint, or simultaneous, measurements of non-commuting observables are possible within quantum mechanics, if one accepts an increase in the variances of the jointly measured observables. In this paper, we discuss joint measurements of a spin 1/2 particle along any two directions. Starting from an operational locality principle, it is shown how to obtain a bound on how sharp the joint measurement can be. We give a direct interpretation of this bound in terms of an uncertainty relation.
Erika Andersson; Stephen M. Barnett; Alain Aspect
New agegraphic dark energy model with generalized uncertainty principle
We investigate the new agegraphic dark energy models with generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). It turns out that although the GUP affects the early universe, it does not change the current and future dark energy-dominated universe significantly. Furthermore, this model could describe the matter-dominated universe in the past only when the parameter $n$ is chosen to be $n>n_c$, where the critical value determined to be $n_c=2.799531478$.
Yong-Wan Kim; Hyung Won Lee; Yun Soo Myung; Mu-In Park
Legal and regulatory issues affecting aquifer thermal energy storage
This document updates and expands the report with a similar title issued in October 1980. This document examines a number of legal and regulatory issues that potentially can affect implementation of the aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) concept. This concept involves the storage of thermal energy in an underground aquifer until a later date when it can be effectively utilized. Either heat energy or chill can be stored. Potential end uses of the energy include district space heating and cooling, industrial process applications, and use in agriculture or aquaculture. Issues are examined in four categories: regulatory requirements, property rights, potential liability, and issues related to heat or chill delivery.
Hendrickson, P.L.
Compendium of Regulatory Requirements Governing Underground Injection of Drilling Wastes
This report provides a comprehensive compendium of the regulatory requirements governing the injection processes used for disposing of drilling wastes; in particular, for a process referred to in this report as slurry injection. The report consists of a narrative discussion of the regulatory requirements and practices for each of the oil- and gas-producing states, a table summarizing the types of injection processes authorized in each state, and an appendix that contains the text of many of the relevant state regulations and policies.
Puder, Markus G.; Bryson, Bill; Veil, John A.
Nuclear regulatory legislation, 104th Congress, Volume 1, No. 4
This document is the first of two volumes compiling statutes and material pertaining to nuclear regulatory legislation through the 104th Congress, 2nd Session. It is intended for use as a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) internal resource document. Legislative information reproduced in this document includes portions of the Atomic Energy Act, Energy Reorganization Act, Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act, and Nuclear Waste Policy Act. Other information included in this volume pertains to NRC user fees, NRC authorizations, the Inspector General Act, and the Administrative Procedure Act.
Regulatory Response to Carbon Starvation in Caulobacter crescentus. | EMSL
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST3 AÇORIANONewsRegulatoryRegulatory Response to
Regulatory practices in India for establishing nuclear power stations
The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) of India was established as an independent regulatory authority charged with regulating radiation protection and nuclear safety. This article reviews the current state of India`s nuclear power reactor program and discusses the makeup of functions of the AERB, including the preparation of issuance of safety codes, guides, and other standards, with special recent emphasis on pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWRs). The AERB`s relationship to nuclear plant owners is discussed, as are the inspection and control functions the AERB performs, both for the construction and operation of nuclear plants and the licensing of operating personnel. 8 refs., 2 figs.
De, A.K. [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Calcutta (India); Singh, S.P. [Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, Bombay (India)
Attempt to estimate measurement uncertainty in the Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model. Master's thesis
The Air Force Toxic Chemical Dispersion (AFTOX) model is a Gaussian puff dispersion model that predicts plumes, concentrations, and hazard distances of toxic chemical spills. A measurement uncertainty propagation formula derived by Freeman et al. (1986) is used within AFTOX to estimate resulting concentration uncertainties due to the effects of data input uncertainties in wind speed, spill height, emission rate, and the horizontal and vertical Gaussian dispersion parameters, and the results are compared to true uncertainties as estimated by standard deviations computed by Monte Carlo simulations. The measurement uncertainty uncertainty propagation formula was found to overestimate measurement uncertainty in AFTOX-calculated concentrations by at least 350 percent, with overestimates worsening with increasing stability and/or increasing measurement uncertainty.
Zettlemoyer, M.D.
Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate
Uncertainty Quantification in Viscous Hypersonic Flows using Gradient Information and Surrogate models for the purposes of uncertainty quantification within the context of viscous hypersonic flows quantification in hypersonic flows. I. Introduction and Motivation The increasing reliance on numerical
Rumpfkeil, Markus Peer
The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry
The Effect of Uncertainty on Pollution Abatement Investments: Measuring Hurdle Rates for Swedish Industry Abstract: We estimate hurdle rates for firms' investments in pollution abatement technology, using, oil price uncertainty, abatement investment, sulfur emissions, pulp and paper industry, energy
Continuous reservoir simulation incorporating uncertainty quantification and real-time data
A significant body of work has demonstrated both the promise and difficulty of quantifying uncertainty in reservoir simulation forecasts. It is generally accepted that accurate and complete quantification of uncertainty should lead to better...
Holmes, Jay Cuthbert
Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental
in conservation actions that generate substantial non-use benefits, such as species and biodiversity conservation1 Confronting Uncertainty and Missing Values in Species Conservation Investment with Environmental: Environmental value transfer and species conservation Key words: environmental value transfer, uncertainty
Botea, Adi
The standard technique for measurement of random uncertainties of star formation histories (SFHs) is the bootstrap Monte Carlo, in which the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) is repeatedly resampled. The variation in SFHs measured from the resampled CMDs is assumed to represent the random uncertainty in the SFH measured from the original data. However, this technique systematically and significantly underestimates the uncertainties for times in which the measured star formation rate is low or zero, leading to overly (and incorrectly) high confidence in that measurement. This study proposes an alternative technique, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which samples the probability distribution of the parameters used in the original solution to directly estimate confidence intervals. While the most commonly used MCMC algorithms are incapable of adequately sampling a probability distribution that can involve thousands of highly correlated dimensions, the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is shown to be extremely effective and efficient for this particular task. Several implementation details, such as the handling of implicit priors created by parameterization of the SFH, are discussed in detail.
Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ, 85734 (United States)
A Bayesian nonrigid registration method to enhance intraoperative target definition in image-guided prostate procedures through uncertainty characterization
Purpose: This study introduces a probabilistic nonrigid registration method for use in image-guided prostate brachytherapy. Intraoperative imaging for prostate procedures, usually transrectal ultrasound (TRUS), is typically inferior to diagnostic-quality imaging of the pelvis such as endorectal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). MR images contain superior detail of the prostate boundaries and provide substructure features not otherwise visible. Previous efforts to register diagnostic prostate images with the intraoperative coordinate system have been deterministic and did not offer a measure of the registration uncertainty. The authors developed a Bayesian registration method to estimate the posterior distribution on deformations and provide a case-specific measure of the associated registration uncertainty. Methods: The authors adapted a biomechanical-based probabilistic nonrigid method to register diagnostic to intraoperative images by aligning a physician's segmentations of the prostate in the two images. The posterior distribution was characterized with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; the maximum a posteriori deformation and the associated uncertainty were estimated from the collection of deformation samples drawn from the posterior distribution. The authors validated the registration method using a dataset created from ten patients with MRI-guided prostate biopsies who had both diagnostic and intraprocedural 3 Tesla MRI scans. The accuracy and precision of the estimated posterior distribution on deformations were evaluated from two predictive distance distributions: between the deformed central zone-peripheral zone (CZ-PZ) interface and the physician-labeled interface, and based on physician-defined landmarks. Geometric margins on the registration of the prostate's peripheral zone were determined from the posterior predictive distance to the CZ-PZ interface separately for the base, mid-gland, and apical regions of the prostate. Results: The authors observed variation in the shape and volume of the segmented prostate in diagnostic and intraprocedural images. The probabilistic method allowed us to convey registration results in terms of posterior distributions, with the dispersion providing a patient-specific estimate of the registration uncertainty. The median of the predictive distance distribution between the deformed prostate boundary and the segmented boundary was Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 3 mm (95th percentiles within {+-}4 mm) for all ten patients. The accuracy and precision of the internal deformation was evaluated by comparing the posterior predictive distance distribution for the CZ-PZ interface for each patient, with the median distance ranging from -0.6 to 2.4 mm. Posterior predictive distances between naturally occurring landmarks showed registration errors of Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 5 mm in any direction. The uncertainty was not a global measure, but instead was local and varied throughout the registration region. Registration uncertainties were largest in the apical region of the prostate. Conclusions: Using a Bayesian nonrigid registration method, the authors determined the posterior distribution on deformations between diagnostic and intraprocedural MR images and quantified the uncertainty in the registration results. The feasibility of this approach was tested and results were positive. The probabilistic framework allows us to evaluate both patient-specific and location-specific estimates of the uncertainty in the registration result. Although the framework was tested on MR-guided procedures, the preliminary results suggest that it may be applied to TRUS-guided procedures as well, where the addition of diagnostic MR information may have a larger impact on target definition and clinical guidance.
Pursley, Jennifer; Risholm, Petter; Fedorov, Andriy; Tuncali, Kemal; Fennessy, Fiona M.; Wells, William M. III; Tempany, Clare M.; Cormack, Robert A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States); Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States)
Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change
due to first and second generation biofuels and uncertaintyIntroducing First and Second Generation Biofuels into GTAP
Plevin, Richard J; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A; Witcover, Julie; O'??Hare, Michael
Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments.
was done in the framework of a research project on model uncertainty at HSBC-CCF, Division of Market
Integration and quantification of uncertainty of volumetric and material balance analyses using a Bayesian framework
......................................... 13 Example 1: Gas-cap Oil Reservoir Reported by Dake ................... 13 Case 1: Large Uncertainty in Prior and Small Uncertainty in Pressure Data .............................................................................. 13 Case 2... OHIP and quantify uncertainty. Test the framework using data for gas-cap oil reservoirs reported in the literature. 2. Investigate the effect of correlation between parameters of the prior distribution on the combined OHIP estimate. General...
Ogele, Chile
Radiochemical analyses of surface water samples, in the framework of Environmental Monitoring, have associated uncertainties for the radioisotopic results reported. These uncertainty analyses pertain to the tritium results from surface water samples collected at five locations on the Savannah River near the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). Uncertainties can result from the field-sampling routine, can be incurred during transport due to the physical properties of the sample, from equipment limitations, and from the measurement instrumentation used. The uncertainty reported by the SRS in their Annual Site Environmental Report currently considers only the counting uncertainty in the measurements, which is the standard reporting protocol for radioanalytical chemistry results. The focus of this work is to provide an overview of all uncertainty components associated with SRS tritium measurements, estimate the total uncertainty according to ISO 17025, and to propose additional experiments to verify some of the estimated uncertainties. The main uncertainty components discovered and investigated in this paper are tritium absorption or desorption in the sample container, HTO/H{sub 2}O isotopic effect during distillation, pipette volume, and tritium standard uncertainty. The goal is to quantify these uncertainties and to establish a combined uncertainty in order to increase the scientific depth of the SRS Annual Site Environmental Report.
Atkinson, R.
Risk Assessment & Management This chapter presents the Council's approach to addressing uncertainty and managing risk. After
Risk Assessment & Management This chapter presents the Council's approach to addressing uncertainty and managing risk. After reviewing the reasons for addressing uncertainty in the Council's Fifth Power Plan the studies evaluated the performance of resource plans under uncertainty, including their associated risk
Verification and Uncertainty Reduction of Amchitka Underground Nuclear Testing Models
The modeling of Amchitka underground nuclear tests conducted in 2002 is verified and uncertainty in model input parameters, as well as predictions, has been reduced using newly collected data obtained by the summer 2004 field expedition of CRESP. Newly collected data that pertain to the groundwater model include magnetotelluric (MT) surveys conducted on the island to determine the subsurface salinity and porosity structure of the subsurface, and bathymetric surveys to determine the bathymetric maps of the areas offshore from the Long Shot and Cannikin Sites. Analysis and interpretation of the MT data yielded information on the location of the transition zone, and porosity profiles showing porosity values decaying with depth. These new data sets are used to verify the original model in terms of model parameters, model structure, and model output verification. In addition, by using the new data along with the existing data (chemistry and head data), the uncertainty in model input and output is decreased by conditioning on all the available data. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is adapted for developing new input parameter distributions conditioned on prior knowledge and new data. The MCMC approach is a form of Bayesian conditioning that is constructed in such a way that it produces samples of the model parameters that eventually converge to a stationary posterior distribution. The Bayesian MCMC approach enhances probabilistic assessment. Instead of simply propagating uncertainty forward from input parameters into model predictions (i.e., traditional Monte Carlo approach), MCMC propagates uncertainty backward from data onto parameters, and then forward from parameters into predictions. Comparisons between new data and the original model, and conditioning on all available data using MCMC method, yield the following results and conclusions: (1) Model structure is verified at Long Shot and Cannikin where the high-resolution bathymetric data collected by CRESP yield profiles matching those used to construct the Long Shot and Cannikin model cross sections in 2002. (2) Distributions of model input parameters (recharge, conductivity, and recharge-conductivity ratio) used in 2002 for the three sites are verified where the new data indicate distributions with narrower ranges (smaller uncertainty) but within the range employed in the 2002 model. (3) As a conservative approach, distribution of fracture porosity used in 2002 was deliberately skewed toward lower values. New CRESP data indicate that the selected porosity range was overly conservative. In addition, the range of porosity values obtained from the analysis of the MT data is found to generally be about three orders of magnitude lower than range of values used in the 2002 model, though the values themselves are much larger from the MT data. (4) Distributions of the flow model output (head distribution, salinity distribution, groundwater fluxes) resulting from the 2002 model for the three sites are verified where the new model output after conditioning on the data lie within the range of the 2002 model output. (5) Cannikin model output at location of well UAe-1 is not fully verified where the new model results for small salinity values are not fully enclosed by the uncertainty bounds of the original model output. (6) With the new porosities developed from the analysis of MT data, radionuclides require thousands of years to reach the seafloor. No breakthrough resulted for any of the three sites within the 2000 year model timeframe, despite ignoring all retardation mechanisms (sorption, radionuclide trapping in glass, matrix diffusion, and radioactive decay). (7) The no-breakthrough results verify the original model in the sense that this result lies within the uncertainty bounds of the 2002 model expressed as + 2 {sigma}{sub Q} and - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}. The lower bound, - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}, in the 2002 model gave negative values implying that the bound is essentially zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Si
+ 2 {sigma}{sub Q} and - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}. The lower bound, - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}, in the 2002 model gave negative values implying that the bound is essentially zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Si
- 2 {sigma}{sub Q}. The lower bound, - 2 {sigma}{sub Q}, in the 2002 model gave negative values implying that the bound is essentially zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Si
- 2 {sigma}{sub Q}, in the 2002 model gave negative values implying that the bound is essentially zero. The current results of no-breakthrough match this lower bound. (8) Si
Ahmed Hassan; Jenny Chapman
argentine nuclear regulatory: Topics by E-print Network
argentine nuclear regulatory First Page Previous Page 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Next Page Last Page Topic Index 1 UNITED STATES NUCLEAR...
Natural Gas: Major Legislative and Regulatory Actions (1935 - 2008)
Reports and Publications (EIA)
This special report Web-based product presents a chronology of some of the key federal legislative and regulatory actions that have helped shape the natural gas market, with particular emphasis on policy directives from 1978 to October 2008. Separate reports provide brief descriptions of specific legislation, regulations, or policies, and their impacts on the natural gas market.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Commissioners: Joseph T of Energy and Ancillary Services Investigation of the Practices of the California Independent System of Electric and Natural Gas Prices Enron Power Marketing, Inc. and Enron Energy Services, Inc. Enron Power
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Commissioners: Joseph T Company v. Sellers of Energy and Ancillary Services Investigation of Practices of the California Independent System Operator and the California Power Exchange Puget Sound Energy, Inc. v. Sellers of Energy
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Commissioners: Joseph T Company v. Sellers of Energy and Ancillary Services Into Markets Operated by the California Independent.; Avista Energy, Inc.(Avista); Calpine Energy Services, L.P. (Calpine); El Paso Marketing, LP (f/k/a El
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Before Commissioners: Joseph T 18 C.F.R. § 385.602 (2006). 4 The Settlement defines the Western Energy Markets as those markets Company v. Sellers of Energy and Ancillary Services Investigation of Practices of the California
Report on the Workshop on Regulatory Approaches to Smart
Report on the Workshop on Regulatory Approaches to Smart Grid Investment and Deployment May APEC Secretariat APEC#212-CT-04.2 #12;SCSC Smart Grid Workshop 2012 Page 1 Grid Investment and Deployment May 16-17, 2012 Quebec City, Canada #12;SCSC Smart Grid Workshop 2012
Leptin and regulatory T lymphocytes in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension
Leptin and regulatory T lymphocytes in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension Alice Huertas1 Centre National de Référence de l'Hypertension Pulmonaire Sévère, Service de Pneumologie et Réanimation Respiratoire, Hôpital Antoine Béclère, AP-HP, Clamart, F- 92140; 3 INSERM U999 Hypertension Artérielle
Air Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference
permit regulations are designed to track, record, and control air pollutants belonging to severalAir Quality: Air Pollutants, SLAC Emissions Sources, and Regulatory Reference Department: Chemical on chemical classifications. This reference outlines major categories of air pollutants found at SLAC
Wechsler, Risa H.
Metabolism and proliferation share common regulatory pathways in cancer
Metabolism and proliferation share common regulatory pathways in cancer cells. Vanessa Fritz, proliferation, and cancer inserm-00491405,version1-11Jun2010 Author manuscript, published in "Oncogene 2010;29(31):4369-77" DOI : 10.1038/onc.2010.182 #12;Metabolism, proliferation and cancer Fritz and Fajas 2 Abstract Cancer
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Identification of lignin genes and regulatory
RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Identification of lignin genes and regulatory sequences involved analysis revealed 18 lignin isoforms for each species. We also identified five contigs homologous to R2R3 wall formation and lignin deposition. We searched the contigs against public microRNA database
DEVELOPING A SET OF REGULATORY ANALOGS FOR CARBON SEQUESTRATION D.M. Reiner1 , H.J. Herzog2 1 Judge Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA, email: firstname.lastname@example.com ABSTRACT Carbon capture and sequestration variables critical for determining the success of carbon sequestration as a viable climate policy option
A SEARCH FOR REGULATORY ANALOGS TO CARBON SEQUESTRATION D.M. Reiner and H.J. Herzog1 1 Laboratory for Energy and the Environment, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA. 02139, USA ABSTRACT Carbon capture and sequestration for determining the success of carbon sequestration as a viable climate policy option. INTRODUCTION To date
ERDC/ELTR-08-28 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-08-28 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Arid West Region (Version 2.0) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers September 2008 EnvironmentalLaboratory Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands
ERDC/ELTR-07-24 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program
ERDC/ELTR-07-24 Wetlands Regulatory Assistance Program Regional Supplement to the Corps of Engineers Wetland Delineation Manual: Alaska Region (Version 2.0) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers September 2007 EnvironmentalLaboratory Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. #12;Wetlands
The Distributional and Environmental Effects of Time-Varying Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets
to rates that vary by time of use. The results are robust toresults with ?at rate variation by month and by time of use
Holland, Stephen P.; MANSUR, ERIN T
E-Print Network 3.0 - analyzing time-varying sounds Sample Search...
Collection: Engineering ; Computer Technologies and Information Sciences 43 Wind Turbine Acoustic Noise A white paper Summary: descriptions of time-varying sound and to...
Testing of a loop heat pipe experimental apparatus under varied acceleration.
??An experimental apparatus was designed and fabricated to test a Loop Heat Pipe under varied acceleration. The experiment consisted of both flight and ground testing� (more)
Kurwitz, Richard Cable
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed repository for high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.
Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 [1] and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository [2]. This presentation provides an overview of the conceptual and computational structure of the indicated PA (hereafter referred to as the 2008 YM PA) and the roles that uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis play in this structure.
Helton, Jon Craig; Sallaberry, Cedric M.; Hansen, Clifford W.
Environmental Policy Factors in the Maritime Industry and Anticipated Regulatory Trends
Increased environmental regulatory policy has been put in place by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in response to waterborne oil pollution events. We examine the IMO regulatory response to these incidences. This paper covers literature...
Hayes, Richard D.
Possible Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc...
Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc Transport Protein, ZnuA. Possible Regulatory Role for the Histidine-Rich Loop in the Zinc Transport Protein, ZnuA. Abstract:...
Regulatory and technical reports (abstract index journal): Annual compilation for 1996, Volume 21, No. 4
This compilation is the annual cumulation of bibliographic data and abstracts for the formal regulatory and technical reports issued by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Staff and its contractors.
Sheehan, M.A.
Systematic dissection of regulatory motifs in 2000 predicted human enhancers using a massively parallel reporter assay
Genome-wide chromatin annotations have permitted the mapping of putative regulatory elements across multiple human cell types. However, their experimental dissection by directed regulatory motif disruption has remained ...
Kheradpour, Pouya
Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and its own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential �catastrophic� impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed to updating the estimates regularly as modeling capabilities and scientific and economic knowledge improves. To help foster further improvements in estimating the SCC, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy hosted a pair of workshops on �Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis.� The first focused on conceptual and methodological issues related to integrated assessment modeling and the second brought together natural and social scientists to explore methods for improving damage assessment for multiple sectors. These two workshops provide the basis for the 13 papers in this special issue.
Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann
E-Print Network 3.0 - agr regulatory mutants Sample Search Results
. . 214 B. Regulatory Genes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214 X. Cercosporin Degradation... directly tested with cercosporin- deficient mutants. UV-generated ......
Improvements to Nuclear Data and Its Uncertainties by Theoretical Modeling
This project addresses three important gaps in existing evaluated nuclear data libraries that represent a significant hindrance against highly advanced modeling and simulation capabilities for the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative (AFCI). This project will: Develop advanced theoretical tools to compute prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray characteristics well beyond average spectra and multiplicity, and produce new evaluated files of U and Pu isotopes, along with some minor actinides; Perform state-of-the-art fission cross-section modeling and calculations using global and microscopic model input parameters, leading to truly predictive fission cross-sections capabilities. Consistent calculations for a suite of Pu isotopes will be performed; Implement innovative data assimilation tools, which will reflect the nuclear data evaluation process much more accurately, and lead to a new generation of uncertainty quantification files. New covariance matrices will be obtained for Pu isotopes and compared to existing ones. The deployment of a fleet of safe and efficient advanced reactors that minimize radiotoxic waste and are proliferation-resistant is a clear and ambitious goal of AFCI. While in the past the design, construction and operation of a reactor were supported through empirical trials, this new phase in nuclear energy production is expected to rely heavily on advanced modeling and simulation capabilities. To be truly successful, a program for advanced simulations of innovative reactors will have to develop advanced multi-physics capabilities, to be run on massively parallel super- computers, and to incorporate adequate and precise underlying physics. And all these areas have to be developed simultaneously to achieve those ambitious goals. Of particular interest are reliable fission cross-section uncertainty estimates (including important correlations) and evaluations of prompt fission neutrons and gamma-ray spectra and uncertainties.
Danon, Yaron; Nazarewicz, Witold; Talou, Patrick
MONTEBURNS is a Monte-Carlo depletion routine utilizing MCNP and ORIGEN 2.2. Uncertainties exist in the MCNP transport calculation, but this information is not passed to the depletion calculation in ORIGEN or saved. To quantify this transport uncertainty and determine how it propagates between burnup steps, a statistical analysis of a multiple repeated depletion runs is performed. The reactor model chosen is the Oak Ridge Research Reactor (ORR) in a single assembly, infinite lattice configuration. This model was burned for a 25.5 day cycle broken down into three steps. The output isotopics as well as effective multiplication factor (k-effective) were tabulated and histograms were created at each burnup step using the Scott Method to determine the bin width. It was expected that the gram quantities and k-effective histograms would produce normally distributed results since they were produced from a Monte-Carlo routine, but some of results do not. The standard deviation at each burnup step was consistent between fission product isotopes as expected, while the uranium isotopes created some unique results. The variation in the quantity of uranium was small enough that, from the reaction rate MCNP tally, round off error occurred producing a set of repeated results with slight variation. Statistical analyses were performed using the {chi}{sup 2} test against a normal distribution for several isotopes and the k-effective results. While the isotopes failed to reject the null hypothesis of being normally distributed, the {chi}{sup 2} statistic grew through the steps in the k-effective test. The null hypothesis was rejected in the later steps. These results suggest, for a high accuracy solution, MCNP cell material quantities less than 100 grams and greater kcode parameters are needed to minimize uncertainty propagation and minimize round off effects.
Nichols, T.; Sternat, M.; Charlton, W.
PDF uncertainties at large x and gauge boson production
I discuss how global QCD fits of parton distribution functions can make the somewhat separated fields of high-energy particle physics and lower energy hadronic and nuclear physics interact to the benefit of both. In particular, I will argue that large rapidity gauge boson production at the Tevatron and the LHC has the highest short-term potential to constrain the theoretical nuclear corrections to DIS data on deuteron targets necessary for up/down flavor separation. This in turn can considerably reduce the PDF uncertainty on cross section calculations of heavy mass particles such as W' and Z' bosons.
Accardi, Alberto [Hampton U., JLAB
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