text:
Couple Thoughts on Possible Roster Moves
Mike Watkins
-M.Dareus Contract Extension: I'm not stating anything shocking here, Dareus is arguably the most talented player on the team and the key player on defense. The Bills hit big with this pick and they would be wise, and all accounts say they are, to lock him up long term. The couple off the field issues aside Dareus is the type of talent you want to keep on your team. Its doesn't matter the system the guy produces. That is a very valuable trait for a defensive player.
Now it won't be cheap. Dareus and his agent wisely waited until Suh got his deal before any talks started to happen. I personally recommended that once the G.McCoy deal got inked that the Bills offered him the exact same deal to try and lure him in before Suh hit the market. It's going to cost somewhere between those two deals but it is well worth it as he is a cornerstone player and one of the elite defensive lineman in the game. I've seen the 77 million dollar figure and I don't think that is realistic or close at all. If that's what it would take the deal would be done already, the Bills couldn't get that contract signed fast enough
-Extend C.Glenn: If I'm the Bills I look to do this sooner rather than later. He had a down year last year which can be used in negotiations. However it is also reported that Glenn showed up in the best shape of his career over the offseason. Glenn will likely be looking to get at least good LT money. If he hits the open market he will find it. To me keeping Glenn was more important than signing Iupati this past offseason. Glenn can be good to very good at 4 out of 5 positions on the OL.
From a contract perspective if I am the Bills, and he returns to form, I am thinking along the lines of the Veldheer deal with Arizona. This one could get a little messy especially if they move Glenn into OG over the course of Training Camp. Another outlining factor on this will be the progress of S.Henderson and especially C.Kouandjio. If both show they can be starters the Bills may be less inclined to shell out big money for Glenn. A this point I'm thinking its 50/50 Glenn is retained
-Do not Extend N.Bradham: I like Bradham, but to me he falls under the category of "you can't keep them all". Bradham really took a step forward last year and progressed in Jim Schwartz scheme. It was nearly night and day compared to how he looked in the Pettine scheme. Therein lies part of the problem. I would be real hesitant if I'm the Bills to give Bradham any type of extension until I see how he looks with Rex and Company, because as all Bills fans know that is where Pettine was schooled.
Another reason why I wouldn't extend out Bradham is that I believe it to be the easiest position to replace via the draft. That and this Bills front office seem to have an eye for LB talent, especially in day 2 of the draft. They found both Kiko Alonso and Preston Brown in consecutive years. I'm willing to bet if the Bills let Bradham walk they can find a just as good if not better replacement via the draft
-Maintain Flexibility for Gilmore: It was important to get through this offseason without restructuring Mario's deal. They did that and I bet it was harder than they made it look. The longer they can delay that the better it will be. The way they structured the Clay deal will also be helpful in a restructure situation. If Gilmore keeps on his current trajectory he is going to be expensive to keep. He will be a must sign though because as it has been stated numerous times before the CB position is critical to running this defense the way Rex wants to
-Keep McKelvin: I will never understand this logic that if Rookie player A wins the starting job than Veteran player B must be cut. In this case its Darby and McKelvin. So let's say Darby wins the job, why on earth would the Bills cut McKelvin? Especially with no immediate need for the cap room. The Bills would have a distinct advantage over a lot of teams in that they can go 5 CB's deep and have an eclectic group where they can match every type of WR out there. Opposing offenses are built on exposing mismatches. If McKelvin gets bumped down to 3rd or 4th CB I would gladly match him up against any teams 3rd or 4th WR. That's an advantage for the Bills, one that they should keep. That's not even taking into account that CB is one of the most oft injured positions in the league.
-Just cut Chris Williams: I have blasted this signing since the moment it happened. How anyone anywhere could give this guy 13 million dollars over 4 years is astonishing. We've heard about the blame being tossed around for the EJ selection, but who is eating this mistake? He is not a good player, He's not a valuable back up, and he's already missed some OTA's which isn't a ringing endorsement for a player that needs to fight for his job
The NFL Sends a Clear Message to the Patriots and League
The NFL Sends a Clear Message to the Patriots and League
Mike Watkins
The NFL laid the hammer down on New England on Monday afternoon to the tune of a 4 game suspension of Tom Brady, 1 million dollar fine, and they will have a 2016 1st rounder and a 2017 4th rounder taken away from them. Every bit of that punishment will have an impact on both patriots now and in the future. If the NFL was looking to make a statement, Mission accomplished
Patriot fans will argue that is a pretty hefty blow for pulling some air out of some footballs in a blowout win. The point however hold no validity in the overall argument. The fact that the game that they were caught in was a blowout is irrelevant. They broke a rule, and by all accounts knowingly and purposely broke that rule. How much it helped them win does not matter. If anything the size of that win really makes you questioned why they would need to do it at all. Furthermore, if you truly believe this is the only game that they did this is, well you my friend will believe anything
The issue at hand here is the integrity of the game was tarnished and it's not the first time the Patriots have been caught doing so. They often stretch the limits of the rules as far as they can and on a couple of occasions have gone over the limits with the other being spygate. They also do minor things, an example of which is their injury report. Which if you have ever taken a look at it has nearly every started listed week in and week out. Brady has been on it nearly every game for years and never missed a game.
I don't feel bad for the Patriots nor do I think the punishment is too harsh for a repeat offender. The Patriots clearly did not get the last message the NFL sent when they handed out punishment for spygate. The Patriots often thumb their nose at the league and the league finally laid down a punishment to get their attention.
This was and is an example that needed to be set. By hammering Brady and the Patriots it send a clear signal across the league that no one is above the whole. It will also plant a seed of doubt in every players head before he makes even a minor move to break the rules. That goal was accomplished and rightfully so. You cannot have the games being questioned if you are the NFL. You cannot have fans wondering if one side is cheating or not. That is what would ultimately destroy the league.
The reality is the punishment will likely be cut in half across the board. Brady will likely get reduced down to 2 games, the money will be cut in half, and the only conceivable reason the 2017 4th rounder was included in the punishment is so it could be negotiated out. We all know that's coming, but the harshest part of this punishment may never be reduced. The Tom Brady Patriots will now forever been stained as a team that cheated. That alone will be what eats away at the team and the coach for a very long time. To me, the punishment fits the crime.
Buffalo Bills 2015 Draft Review and
Buffalo Bills 2015 Draft Review and Grades
Mike Watkins
2nd Round: Ronald Darby, CB, FSU
-In my final mock before the draft I had mocked CB to the Bills from FSU, PJ Williams. The logic behind it is pretty simple, just because it's not an immediate need it doesn't mean it's not a need. A lot of fans have a hard time wrapping their heads around that. Front offices more often than not do not select draft pics just by looking at their biggest need and then picking a player at that position. Most have figured out that is the best way to keep your team mediocre, raise the bust percentage, and pass on some special talent. I've found that when mocking out teams you have to look at a team needs this year and next to really gauge what they are going to do.
-Despite a lot of fans grumbling CB is a need. The CB position at the end of next year could be in a really bad position. 2 of them we'll be 30 and the only CB under contract with any talent is a slot CB only. The most talented CB of the bunch, Gilmore, will also have just concluded the last year of his rookie deal. While the Bills will obviously want to bring him back nothing is a guarantee. The selection of Darby, whom has starter ability, puts them in a much better position to deal with this. It gives them far more options than they previously had, especially for a team that will likely lay low during free agency next year as they try and resign their own.
-In the immediate future he provides even more depth to a critical position in Rex Ryan's defense. No matter how spread out the opposing offense want to get the Bills will have the CB talent to match it. That is a big advantage for the Bills in a league that has gone pass happy. This is also one of the most oft injured position in the NFL and Darby provides more depth to that as well as options if the Bills need to move Graham to FS
-Getting Darby in now is also important to Rex and this defense. Not being thrust right into a starter's role and being able to be coached by two very good secondary coaches for a full year before likely becoming the starter opposite Gilmore will benefit Darby tremendously. There is a lot of value in that and will greatly help Darby reach his full potential
-From a fit standpoint Darby has a lot of what Rex looks for in CB's. He can man press, he's feisty, and he is ultra-athletic. You cannot just look at the INT numbers with Darby and judge him. He often shut down his side of the field. He has a swagger to him and a short memory, 2 things that are important to be a good starting CB in the NFL. There is a ton of physical talent to work with and he landed in a very good defense that fits him well and won't count on him to be an impact early
Grade: B
3rd Round: John Miller, OG, Louisville
-If you have been following me then you know I have been a fan of J.Miller for a long time. What I like about him is first he plays with a nasty streak. To me that mentality is very important when you are playing either line in the NFL. It's a street fight every snap and you have to be able to handle it mentally. Miller also has good hand tech for a college OL. This is a lot tougher to find than people think. Most college OL have sloppy hand tech because they can simply overpower opposing DL who also mostly have terrible hand tech. Miller also has very good power, which combined with the hand tech puts him farther along than most College OL. Do to that he is good at getting inside of opposing DL and stone walling them. Last but not least is he is a hard working team first player. Everyday Miller is going to work and make you work. Coaches and fans love that about players
-In the immediate future I think Miller will start off as the key back up to both the left and right side at OG. It won't last long though, I believe he has starter potential and will take over the one of them before November hits
Grade: A
5th Round: Karlos Williams, RB, FSU
-For me this was the most interesting selection for the Bills in the 2015 draft. RB much like CB is not a 2015 need but will be one in 2016. Williams has talent but it always doesn't show up which makes consistency his biggest issue. If you go off of his 2013 tape he likely would be a day 2 pick. The 2014 tape cost him 2-3 rounds. I know he has talent because I often rooted against FSU and remember every time he got the ball with some space I would think to myself "shit!".
-Williams is very much a downhill one cut and go RB. He can use both power and speed to beat you. The issue is that his motor doesn't always run hot. He seems uninterested at times and that is when he becomes very average.
-Fred Jackson cannot play forever and this looks like Williams could be his replacement in a year or two. In my opinion Williams could actually end up being the steal of the Bills draft and one of the biggest steals of the draft if he can keep his head on straight. Williams has a good amount of potential and he is the rookie I am most interested in seeing in the preseason
Grade: C+
6th Round: Tony Steward, LB, Clemson
-I expect Steward to be on the inside for the Bills where they lack depth. Overall it's going to be hard for Steward to make the roster just as a reserve ILB. he is going to have to make it on Special Teams which lucky for him he happens to be very good at. There will be stiff competition but at worst I think he lands on the Practice Squad.
Grade: C
6th Round: Nick O'Leary, TE, FSU
-O'Leary was a pick I thought was coming earlier than this. He seems like a perfect fit for what Roman likes to do on offense. He likes to have a player in the H-Back mode that he can move around and make an impact in the passing game. O'Leary fits that as well as the type of player Rex just likes to have on his team.
-O'Leary is not the most athletic player on the field but he will play much faster than what his times will say. He has this knack for finding soft spots in zone defenses and catches nearly everything thrown his way. He is a very annoying player to opposing teams because you don't know how he keeps getting open and his receptions often result in first downs and TD's
Grade: B+
7th Round: Dezmin Lewis, WR, Central Arkansas
-Lewis the latest attempt for the Bills to add size to their WR position. Lewis does have decent measurable and he makes a good amount of contested receptions. The issue however is, with a lot of these types of WR's, is that if you cannot separate on a consistent basis it is hard for the team to put you out on the field. Lewis abusing college CB's by winning jump balls is one thing, against NFL CB's is another ball game all together. He has the raw ability so he is certainly worth a look. It would be wise of him however to start practicing special teams now because that will be the best avenue onto the roster. If not he would be a nice player to have on the practice squad
Grade: C+
Overall Thoughts and Grade
Grade: B-, No home runs but a solid class overall that will pay bigger dividends in 2016 and beyond rather than immediately in 2015
-This draft class will not pay immediate dividends but will in the very near future. This class sets up the Bills to have upgraded depth for 2015. It will also provide the Bills to make roster decisions easier in 2016. With the money spent in FA'cy this year the Bills will not be big players in that for 2016. This draft class should allow for that to be much easier to do.
-The class is full of physical tough minded players. It's easy to see that this is the mentality that Rex is trying to create with the Bills
-The position I am surprised the Bills did not address is FS. I still think that is a position that is really up in the air. The staff seems to like Duke Williams, I'm not sold on him at all
-When the Jets selected L.Williams I stated that we are about to see how smart the Jets are. If they are smart they will keep Wilkerson in the fold and find a way to make it work with all that talent. If they are not they will move him which will actually lead to arguably a down grade. The Bills are in the same position to a lesser degree with their 2nd round selection. There is no reason to drop McKelvin this year unless they need the cap room to add a player late or work out an unforeseen trade. The Bills right now have a very deep and talented set of CB's. They need to see the advantage to that and keep it intact
-As many have stated, and I agree, I think the selection of Williams may spell the end for B.Brown. Brown has some talent but the ball security issue remains a big one. This will be a big preseason and camp for B.Brown
-The Bills didn't address the QB position but it really didn't bother me that they didn't. They added Cassel and Taylor in the offseason and once Grayson left the board you were left with a bunch of prospects that I would rate lower than EJ
-Best chance to make the roster from the UDFA's is C.Reed. He never fully lived up to his potential in Texas but he has a lot of what you like in a 3-4 DE. I think at the very least he earns a practice squad spot
Day 3 Big Board - Best of the Rest
37: OT: TJ Clemmings, Pittsburgh
47: IOL: Tre' Jackson, Florida State
60: E: Jake Ryan, Michigan
64: DT: Michael Bennett, Ohio State
67: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
70: CB: Doran Grant, Ohio State
80: OT: Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma
82: RB: Jay Ajayi, Boise State
84: DT: Grady Jarrett, Clemson
86: CB: Josh Shaw, USC
87: S: Anthony Harris, Virginia
90: FS: Adrian Amos, Penn State
92: E: Trey Flowers, Arkansas
93: E: Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky
94: WR: Rashad Greene, Florida State
95: WR: Tre McBride, William & Mary
97: IOL: Arie Koundjio, Alabama
99: QB: Brett Hundley, UCLA
100: WR: Stefon Diggs, Maryland
UR: NT: Deon Simon, Northwestern State
UR: SS: Kyshoen Jarrett, Virginia Tech
UR: QB: Cody Fajardo, Nevada
UR: QB: Bryan Bennett, SE Louisiana
UR: ILB: Justin Shirk, Bloomsburg
UR: FB: FB: Tyler Varga, Yale
UR: TE: Nick O'Leary, Florida State
UR: TE: Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
UR: CB: Troy Hills, Oregon
UR: ILB: Taiwan Jones, Michigan State
UR: ILB Hayes Pullard, USC
UR: S: Derron Smith, Fresno State
UR: NT: David Parry, Stanford
UR: NT: Xavier Williams, Northern Iowa
Off Field Concerns- Value Dropped
39: IOL: La'el Collins, LSU
Day 2 Bills Draft Notes
Anthony D. Macari
As far as the Bills are concerned, I am sure there were not too many surprise picks missing from their draft board as Day 2 starts. The Bills seem committed to following their board regardless of position. Could they select a QB with their 2nd round or 3rd round pick? Yes, absolutely because I believe they have at least 3 ranked within the next 50 prospects and they have the 18th and 49th picks of day 2. Will they leap frog a QB over a higher ranked prospect on their board? I do not believe they will in the 2nd round, but my guess is they have those 3 QBs ranked high enough that it would be an upset if one of them is not the highest ranked prospect when they are on the clock in round 3.
So, looking at the board, I still feel good about my original Bills projection that had OT/IOL Jeremiah Poutasi going to Buffalo in the 2nd and QB Garrett Grayson going to them in the 3rd. Other O-Line prospects still on the board that will be serious considerations for the Bills with their 2nd rounder are AJ Cann, TJ Clemmings, Tre' Jackson, Mitch Morse and Jake Fisher. All would be both good value and fill and obvious big need. That need is perhaps even more pressing after the moves the Bills AFC East foes have made this off-season including Day 1 of the draft.
Each of the Bills AFC East foes have added potentially dominant DT's to what were already tough D-Lines. The Jets with their top pick may have landed the best player in the draft in DT Leonard Williams, the Pats added massive and versatile Texas NT Malcom Brown to take over for the departed Wilfork. The Dolphins already added Ndamukong Suh in free agency.
If the Bills decided to build to their strength, Eddie Goldman,the highest rated prospect on my day 2 board, would be an interesting pick if he were still available. He would obviously build the Bills greatest strength and give the Bills the ability to give an entirely different look when he's on the field. Edge rushers Eli Harold, Mario Edwards and Owa Odighizuwa would also be great values that would make the Bills D even scarier. On the back end, where the Bills do want to add some competition and depth, CB Jalen Collins, SS Landon Collins and CB Eric Rowe are the best available. Up the middle, the two best ILB prospects left are Eric Kendricks and Benardrick McKinney, both would be good fits in the middle of Rex's D.
Back on O, the Bills could also look to add another weapon with the best TE in this draft, Maxx Williams, Receivers Jaelen Strong and Devin Smith both might represent too much value to pass on despite WR not being a pressing need.
As the draft approached, quietly QB Sean Mannion started creeping up boards of the various draft experts. While Petty has been the most commonly mocked to the Bills and my preference for the Bills is Garrett Grayson given his experience in a pro style O and his steady improvement as a pocket passer with good pocket presence and accuracy, its Mannion who I am getting the feeling will be the Bills 3rd round pick, He has great size and a tremendous NFL arm that would cut through the wind at the Ralph. My only concern with Mannion is his ability to deal with a relentless pass rush like he is sure to see in an AFC East that now boasts one formidable front 7 after another. This means if Mannion is the choice, the urgency to solidify the o-line is even more critical.
In a perfect world, the Bills use their 2nd round pick to fortify their o-line and than hit gold and find that all elusive franchise QB of the future in round 3, be it Bryce Petty, Garrett Grayson or Sean Mannion.
2015 Day 2 Big Board - Best of the Rest
22: S: Landon Collins, Alabama
25: E: Eli Harold, Virginia
27: CB: Jalen Collins, LSU
28: WR: Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
30: ILB: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
31: DT: Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
34: QB: Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
35: QB: Bryce Petty, Baylor
36: IOL: AJ Cann, South Carolina
37: OT: TJ Clemmings, Pittsburgh
38: CB: Eric Rowe, Utah
42: ILB: Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
43: E: Mario Edwards Jr, Florida State
44: TE: Maxx Williams, Minnesota
45: RB: Tevin Coleman, Indiana
46: WR: Devin Smith, Ohio State
47: IOL: Tre' Jackson, Florida State
49: E: Owa Odighizuwa, UCLA
50: IOL: Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
51: CB: Ronald Darby, Florida State
52: IOL: Mitch Morse, Missouri
53: OT: Jake Fisher, Oregon
54: IOL: Donovan Smith, Penn State
55: WR: Dorial Green- Beckham, Oklahoma
56: TE: Clive Walford, Miami
57: IOL: Ali Marpet, Hobart
59: TE: Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
60: E: Jake Ryan, Michigan
62: WR: Sammie Coates, Auburn
63: RB: Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
64: DT: Michael Bennett, Ohio State
65: E: Danielle Hunter, LSU
67: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
68: E: Preston Smith, Mississippi State
70: CB: Doran Grant, Ohio State
71: CB: Senquez Golson, Mississippi
72: CB: Quinten Rollins, Miami Ohio
73: ILB: P.J. Dawson, TCU
74: ILB: Denzel Perryman, Miami
75: WR: Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
76: WR: Devin Funchess, Michigan
77: E: Nate Orchard, Utah
78: S: Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
79: RB: Duke Johnson, Miami
80: OT: Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma
81: OT: Ty Sambrailo, Colorada State
82: RB: Jay Ajayi, Boise State
83: DT: Carl Davis, Iowa
84: DT: Grady Jarrett, Clemson
85: RB: David Johnson, Northern Iowa
86: CB: Josh Shaw, USC
87: S: Anthony Harris, Virginia
88: DT: Xavier Cooper, Washington
89: CB: P.J. Williams, Florida State
90: FS: Adrian Amos, Penn State
91: RB: T.J. Yeldon, Alabama
92: E: Trey Flowers, Arkansas
93: E: Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky
94: WR: Rashad Greene, Florida State
95: WR: Tre McBride, William & Mary
96: IOL: Hroniss Grasu, Oregon
97: IOL: Arie Koundjio, Alabama
98: QB: Sean Mannion, Oregon State
99: QB: Brett Hundley, UCLA
100: WR: Stefon Diggs, Maryland
Off Field Concerns- Value Dropped
16: ER: Randy Gregory, Nebraska
39: IOL: La'el Collins, LSU
Final 2015 Mock Draft... Full First
Round, Bills selection, and Thoughts
Final 2015 Mock Draft... Full First Round, Bills selection, and Thoughts
Mike Watkins
1.Tampa Bay: J.Winston, QB, FSU
2.Tennessee: M.Mariota, QB, Oregon
3.Jacksonville: D.Fowler, OLB/DE, Florida
4.Oakland: L.Williams, DE/DT, USC
5.Washington: A.Cooper, WR, Alabama
6.NY Jets: V.Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
7.Chicago: A.Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
8.Atlanta: T.Gurley, RB, Georgia
9.NY Giants: K.White, WR, West Virginia
10.St.Louis: A.Peat, OT, Stanford
11.Minnesota: T.Waynes, CB, Michigan St
12.Cleveland: M.Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
13.New Orleans: D.Shelton, DT, Washington
14.Miami: B.Schreff, OG/OT, Iowa
15.S.F.: K.Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16.Houston: L.Collins, OG/OT, LSU
17.San Diego: D.Parker, WR, Louisville
18.Kansas City: E.Flowers, OT, Miami
19.Cleveland: A.Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
20.Philadelphia: B.Jones, CB, UConn
21.Cincinnati: S.Ray, DE, Missouri
22.Pittsburgh: R.Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
23.Detroit: DJ Humphries, OT, Florida
24.Arizona: M.Brown, DT/DE, Texas
25.Carolina: J.Fisher, OT, Oregon
26.Baltimore: J.Strong, WR, Arizona St
27.Dallas: J.Collins, CB, LSU
28.Denver: D.Smith, OT, Penn State
29.Indianapolis: L.Collins, S, Alabama
30.Green Bay: E.Goldman, DT, FSU
31.New Orleans: M.Williams, TE, Minnesota
32.New England: B.Perriman, WR, UCF
Buffalo Bills Selection: PJ Williams, CB, FSU
Projecting out a first round selection is difficult, trying to project out the Bills selection in the 2nd round in a thin draft is extremely difficult. In any case I think the Bills are going defense and I think they are selecting a player to reinforce the secondary.
The reasoning is two fold
1.The Bills spent the offseason shoring up the offense. Rex Ryan learned his lesson in New York and decided to be extremely aggressive in the offseason looking to upgrade the offense so the defense can carry a little less of the load. That time has passed though and in my opinion Rex and the Bills will be looking to add to the other side of the ball to reinforce it to keep it strong now and for the long hall
2. It's not necessarily a big need now but it will be next year so they would be wise to get a jump on it and get a talented young kid in the system. Gilmore will be a free agent and by all accounts they will want him back but nothing is guaranteed. McKelvin will be 31 by next season and the bottom will fall out quick for a CB who relies far more on athletic ability than his instincts. The Bills would be smart to get ahead of the ball on this issue. We all saw what can happen if Rex does not have talent at the CB spot, see last year in New York. The position is critical to Rex's defense and I imagine he will do his best to not allow what happened last year with the Jets to ever happen with the Bills. I imagine the front office is on board with that
The Fit: Williams to me would fit right into what Rex likes in his CB's. He is aggressive at the line of scrimmage and prefers man to zone coverage. He can be a gambler at times but has the swagger and short memory that you need at the position. In run support he is above average and makes the effort. Which for a CB coming out of college already puts him ahead of the game. The Bills could start him off in the slot to groom him for 2016 when either McKelvin or Gilmore depart.
Other thoughts on Bills Draft:
-I think it's incorrect to assume the Bills will just pick whatever the best OL is on the board on Day 2. I believe, and I think they think the same, is that it's not a realistic expectation to think that any OL selected in the 2nd or 3rd will come in right away and start. Most of the lineman selected in these rounds need a year or two in an NFL weight training program. I think 4 of the 5 OL spots are locked in and I believe they think Kromer can coach up a player already on the roster to fill in the last spot
-I'm all for taking a QB in any round in this draft for the Bills. I am firmly in the camp that, as Seattle did, you need to attack the problem with numbers. The more competition the better
-The Bills need to keep adding to the DL. They have spent a lot of time, money, and assets building up that unit and making it the identity of the team. They would be very wise to keep it deep and flush with talent
-I'd like them to pick an ILB at some point because depth there is a concern and next year may be an issue. I'm not in the bring Bradham back camp. I don't think he is a critical part of the defense and much like RB can be filled relatively quickly in any draft. An injury to Bradham or Brown this year though could have a big impact with how little they have behind the two
-Personally I'm fine with the Bills WR's right now but I get why they would want to add another one. Give whomever the QB is as much fire power as possible. It forces the defense to play more straight up which in turn creates more space for players like Watkins, Harvin, and McCoy
-I mocked PJ Williams to the Bills but I would love it if M.Peters made it to the Bills. In my opinion he's the best man CB in the draft
-I would like it if the Bills could somehow find a ball hawking FS in this draft. Rex's defense has always operated at its peak when he has a great center fielder of a Safety roaming around. The pressure he creates with the front 7 allows a player of that skill set to really go to town
1st Round Draft Thoughts
-I still have Mariota over Winston. I just like the way Mariota carries himself and I think he has a real shot to be the first QB to really make it on Sundays after spending his career on Saturdays in an option spread offense. The reality is I don't trust Winston off the field
-Jaguars are a tough pick but I went with Fowler who I believe to be the best defensive player in the draft. I think the Jags have no shot of finding any player near Fowler's skill set at the top of round two, while there is a decent shot of finding a good WR at the top of round 2
-A WR for Carr would be tempting but I think pairing Williams and Mack together is far more tempting for Oakland
-I went with Gurley to Atlanta because I think there is value to keeping the kid in Georgia and more importantly I think there will be an early run on pass rushers leaving the Falcons empty handed on that side of the ball.
-The Giants are a BPA drafting team that values skill position so I have a hard time believing that they will spend a top 10 pick on the OL. I think the player they want is Gurley but I think they will fall a pick short of him. That leaves them with White which when paired with OBJ and Cruz makes for a very deep and talented WR position for Eli to take advantage of
-I have T.Waynes as the first CB off the board. I overall do not like this CB class. I think there are a good number of #2 CB's in the draft but none with shutdown ability
-A lot may think 12 is too high for M.Gordon but I think Cleveland will grab him there. They lack speed on offense and Gordon could provide help in both the running and passing game. He has J.Charles like ability
-The Eagles are a tough one to gage. Most think WR but I think Chip Kelly believes he can make it work with less talent on offense. Due to that he is going to load up his defense as much as possible. Jones can play CB or Safety and that makes him a good fit for the Eagles
-Ray and Gregory will be interesting to follow in the draft. The NFL grabs more and more negative off the field headlines every year. Teams may be wary of adding players with these issues. Dion Jordan getting his entire 2015 season taken away I'm sure had a lot of teams take stock if the reward is worth the risk
-Overall it's a weak draft. I think you will see more teams lean towards BPA than depth this year. Problem with trying to forecast that is that the rankings for the players are all over the place.
-Look for teams to value 2016 picks more than 2015 picks in trades
2015 Final All Bills Mock
by Anthony D. Macari
2nd Round – Pick 50
OL: Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah - Junior
Height: 6051 Weight: 335 40: 5.36 Arm: 33 7/8 Hand: 9 ½
Raw, big powerful and young. Could start out as a versatile swing man capable of manning any position on the line. Likely destined for Right Tackle, but has Left Tackle potential in a run power scheme like what Roman will employee in Buffalo. Will need some time to learn proper technique but 3 years from now could end up being the best Tackle form this class. He is only 20 years old.
Other O-Line options are Laken Tomlinson or AJ Cann, but both lack the upside of Poutasi and are likely dirty starters at the next level at best.
After an active trade and free agency period for the Buffalo Bills, they enter the draft with few open starting or even 2nd string spots left open on the roster.
Indeed, this is the most talented Bills pre-draft roster in over a decade. The two glaring exceptions the Bills still do find themselves looking for a long term answer for are at QB and OG. They have at least tried to address the QB position by throwing numbers at the problem by bringing in journeyman stop gap QB Matt Cassel and taking a flier on the athletic but inexperienced veteran Tyrod Taylor. At Guard, the Bills have a handful of young prospects on board but none of which have shown anything to feel comfortable that the problem can be solved from within. They did roll the dice and are presenting a second chance to Richie Incognito to address one of the Guard spots. Outside of Guard and QB, the Bills could use a big, lane clogging NT, another outside pass rusher and depth at Safety and ILB.
Look for the theme of this draft to be adding competition, role players and special teams candidates on a best player available basis from the 2nd round to the 7th. That being said, in a perfect world somewhere along the way the Bills manage to land their QB of the future and a starting G. In a weak draft class, the Bills have set themselves up so that they are not desperate to fill critical spots. In fact, even if they held their 1st round pick sent to Cleveland last year to move up for Sammy Watkins, there would be no obvious choice to fill QB or a starting O-Line spot. The draft is deepest in the first round on the D-Line, where the Bills are already stacked. Perhaps a first round pick would have made them think twice about throwing the big bucks they spent to retain Hughes, but keeping the veteran who emerged with Bills was the better option.
3rd Round – Pick 81
QB: Garrett Grayson, Colorado State – Senior
Height: 6024 Weight: 213 40: 4.95e Arm: 30 Hand: 10
The Bills won't hesitate to pull the trigger on a QB with their 3rd round pick if one of the 3 they have identified as being in the 2nd tier, namely Bryce Petty, Sean Mannion and Garrett Grayson, after Winston and Marriota is still on the board. I believe the QB they covet the most out of the three is Garrett Grayson. He personifies what Whaley said are the key traits he is looking for in a QB prospect, accuracy, decision – making, being able to play the game with his eyes. He also identified leadership and being able to win. Well, of the second tier of QBs, Grayson is the most accurate on tape, consistently hitting his targets in stride. He also is the most pro ready, with the experience to read a defense and work through his progressions. He also has the ability to feel pressure and keep his eyes trained downfield to beat the blitz. Something the likes of Mannion and Petty struggle with.
Some have criticized the Bills for trading away their first round pick to move up to draft Sammy Watkins last year, saying they lost a chance to address QB this year. Well, they wouldn't have had any better chance of finding a QB at 20 that they have at 50 or even 81. While the Bills have spent the off-season first talking about how they still believe EJ Manuel can develop into the man, then went out and traded for journeyman veteran QB Matt Cassel and signed intriguing veteran Tyrod Taylor. Those moves scream, EJ isn't the answer and that is a good thing. If suddenly it clicks and the game slows down for him, tremendous, but until you have a franchise QB on board, you keep trying to find one. Adding a QB in the draft would create a log jam that would have to get sorted out quickly.
Taking one with their first pick, would really put pressure on Manuel, Cassel, Taylor and Tuel, because in reality, you don't cut your 2nd round pick and you only keep 3 QBs but a 3rd round pick in what is a week draft is good risk/reward. Tuel is an easy odd man out initially. In fact, if you do draft a QB, I imagine Tuel may not make it to camp. I am also sure, EJ would then be shopped and if anyone was willing to throw a late round pick the Bills way to save some face, he could be the one who doesn't make it to camp instead of Tuel. I think Rex really likes Tyrod Taylor and he will be given a legitimate chance to compete. At the very least, he has value as an experienced backup who can be used in spread option packages. Cassel is nothing more and nothing less than a stop gap bridge safety net. The worst case scenario is he comes out of camp as head and shoulders the Bills best QB, but that's probably the most realistic scenario.
5th Round – Pick 155
NT: Deon Simon, Northwestern State - Senior
Height: 6043 Weight: 321 40: 5.17 Arm: 33 Hand: 10 ½
A ginormous big man with rare combination of upper and lower body strength. Tied for tops among d-lineman at the combine with 35 bench press reps. Played lower competition but didn't always dominate. However, played well when challenged by the big boys like Baylor. He has little to no value as a pass rusher but could be plugged in as a situational zero to plug the middle right away. Rex will be looking for a situational nose to add to the rotation to run some of his base defensive packages. Simon would give the Bills a totally different look and offer teams something else to worry about when game planning.
6th Round – Pick 188
SS: Kyshoen Jarrett, Virginia Tech - Senior
Height: 5097 Weight: 200 40: 4.56 Arm: 31 Hand: 9 ¾
Undersized but a tough physical and aggressive in the box defender with decent coverage skills. He'd make an immediate impact on special teams and could be used in packages as an extra DB. Rex was talking about Jarrett when he said to the scouting department just find me guys that can play and he'll find a spot for them. Size will cause him to drop but he'd be a steal in the 5th or 6th rounds.
6th Round – Pick 194
ILB: Justin Shirk, Bloomsburg - Senior
Height: 6004 Weight: 235 40: 4.65e
A highly productive D II prospect with average size and good athletic ability. He's a two sport athlete and had a track scholarship as a javelin thrower at Oklahoma before transferring to continue his football career near home. He jumps off the tape and plays with his hair on fire. At the very least you will have a special teams demon who provides inexpensive depth inside. At best, you have yourself a play-making sideline to sideline inside backer.
7th Round – Pick 234
FB: Tyler Varga, Yale - Senior
Height: 5110 Weight: 222 40: 4.65e Arm: 30 3/8 Hand: 10 5/8
Whoever the Bills pick here will have an uphill battle to make the roster but Varga could earn a spot on specials and because of his versatility to fill in at multiple spots including kick returner, H-Back, FB, and Half Back. Roman's multiple looks relies on traps and lead blocking from a FB/H-Back type like Varga.
Nick O'Leary would be an equally interesting pick here if he dropped. The Grandson of the great jack Nicklaus is a perfect fit for Roman, but has had a tough year and half following his motorcycle injury and terrible pre-draft testing that could see his stock drop from what was once considered a day 2 prospect to the bottom of round 7.
Final 2015 PFWR Mock
by Anthony D. Macari
Jameis Winston-QB-Florida St
Marcus Mariota - QB - Oregon
Dante Fowler - ER - Florida
Kevin White - WR - West Virginia
Leonard Williams - DL - USC
Amari Cooper - WR - Alabama
DeVante Parker - WR - Louisville
Vic Beasley - ER - Clemson
Brandon Scherff - OL - Iowa
La'el Collins - OL - LSU
Todd Gurley - RB - Georgia
Ereck Flowers - OL - Miami
Bud Dupree - ER - Kentucky
Trae Waynes - CB - Michigan St
Cameron Erving - OL - Florida St
Arik Armstead - DL - Oregon
Melvin Gordon - RB - Wisconsin
DJ Humphries - OL - Florida
Danny Shelton - DL - Washington
Shane Ray - ER - Missouri
Malcom Brown - DL - Texas
Landon Collins - S - Alabama
Eric Rowe - CB - Utah
Randy Gregory - ER - Nebraska
Jalen Collins - CB - LSU
Marcus Peters - CB - Washington
Damarious Randall - S - Arizona St
Andrus Peat - OL - Stanford
Eric Kendricks - ILB - UCLA
Kevin Johnson - CB - Wake Forest
Byron Jones - CB - Connecticut
PJ Williams - CB - Florida St
Final 2015 PFWR Big Board
1. DT: Leonard Williams, USC
2. QB: Jameis Winston, Florida State
3. E: Donte Fowler, Florida
4. WR: Amari Cooper, Alabama
5. WR: Kevin White, West Virginia
6. IOL: Brandon Scherff, Iowa
7: RB: Todd Gurley, Georgia
8. QB: Marcus Mariota, Oregon
9: WR: Devante Parker, Louisville
10: E: Vic Beasley, Clemson
11: DT: Malcom Brown, Texas
12: OT: Ereck Flowers, Miami
13: DT: Eddie Goldman, Florida State
14: RB: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
15: IOL: Cameron Erving, Florida State
16: ER: Randy Gregory, Nebraska
17: CB: Trae Waynes, Michigan State
18: OT: Andrus Peat, Stanford
19: E: Arik Armstead, Oregon
20: E: Bud Dupree, Kentucky
21: CB: Marcus Peters, Washington
22: S: Landon Collins, Alabama
23: OT: DJ Humprhies, Florida
24: E: Shane Ray, Missouri
25: E: Eli Harold, Virginia
26: CB: Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
27: CB: Jalen Collins, LSU
28: WR: Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
29: DT: Danny Shelton, Washington
30: ILB: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
31: DT: Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
32: WR: Nelson Agholor, USC
33: IOL: Laken Tomlinson, Duke
34: QB: Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
35: QB: Bryce Petty, Baylor
36: IOL: AJ Cann, South Carolina
37: OT: TJ Clemmings, Pittsburgh
38: CB: Eric Rowe, Utah
39: IOL: La'el Collins, LSU
40: S: Damarious Randall, Arizona State
41: CB: Byron Jones, UConn
42: ILB: Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
43: E: Mario Edwards Jr, Florida State
44: TE: Maxx Williams, Minnesota
45: RB: Tevin Coleman, Indiana
46: WR: Devin Smith, Ohio State
47: IOL: Tre' Jackson, Florida State
48: E: Shaq Thompson, Washington
49: E: Owa Odighizuwa, UCLA
50: IOL: Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
51: CB: Ronald Darby, Florida State
52: IOL: Mitch Morse, Missouri
53: OT: Jake Fisher, Oregon
54: IOL: Donovan Smith, Penn State
55: WR: Dorial Green- Beckham, Oklahoma
56: TE: Clive Walford, Miami
57: IOL: Ali Marpet, Hobart
58: WR: Phillip Dorsett, Miami
59: TE: Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
60: E: Jake Ryan, Michigan
61: ILB: Stephone Anthony, Clemson
62: WR: Sammie Coates, Auburn
63: RB: Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
64: DT: Michael Bennett, Ohio State
65: E: Danielle Hunter, LSU
66: WR: Breshard Perriman, UCF
67: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
68: E: Preston Smith, Mississippi State
69: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
70: CB: Doran Grant, Ohio State
71: CB: Senquez Golson, Mississippi
72: CB: Quinten Rollins, Miami Ohio
73: ILB: P.J. Dawson, TCU
74: ILB: Denzel Perryman, Miami
75: WR: Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
76: WR: Devin Funchess, Michigan
77: E: Nate Orchard, Utah
78: S: Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
79: RB: Duke Johnson, Miami
80: OT: Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma
81: OT: Ty Sambrailo, Colorada State
82: RB: Jay Ajayi, Boise State
83: DT: Carl Davis, Iowa
84: DT: Grady Jarrett, Clemson
85: RB: David Johnson, Northern Iowa
86: CB: Josh Shaw, USC
87: S: Anthony Harris, Virginia
88: DT: Xavier Cooper, Washington
89: CB: P.J. Williams, Florida State
90: FS: Adrian Amos, Penn State
91: RB: T.J. Yeldon, Alabama
92: E: Trey Flowers, Arkansas
93: E: Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky
94: WR: Rashad Greene, Florida State
95: WR: Tre McBride, William & Mary
96: IOL: Hroniss Grasu, Oregon
97: IOL: Arie Koundjio, Alabama
98: QB: Sean Mannion, Oregon State
99: QB: Brett Hundley, UCLA
100: WR: Stefon Diggs, Maryland
10 Players I like Outside of the
First Round
10 Players I like Outside of the First Round
Mike Watkins
S.Diggs, WR, Maryland: Diggs is one of those players that has had some injury issues in his career and it's the reason his stock has dropped. Diggs is an explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands on offense and on Special Teams. I think he will make his living out of the slot on Sundays, which is fine as the importance of that position grows every year He reminds me a lot of the Broncos E.Sanders
J.Ryan, LB, Michigan: Ryan had a bit of a down year in 2014 but he still made plays in every game I watched him. I think he can play inside and out in both a 3-4 and 4-3 as well as fill in at DE in a pinch. That versatility will lead to a long NFL career. I expect him to be a solid back up and good special teamed to start his career. He is the type of player coaches and GMs love to have on their roster
J.Fisher, OT, Oregon: So Fisher has a good shot at going in the first but I threw him on the list anyway. Reason being is because of how different the Oregon offense looked with and then without him. Outside of Mariota Fisher was Oregon most important player. I think he can make an impact from day one at LT
S.Coates, WR, Auburn: Coates is a very raw WR out of Auburn, but he has a very good set of measurable's. Coates needs to land on a team where he can play as a 3rd or 4th WR while he develops. Immediately he should draw attention on go and post routes. He lands with the right coach and QB and the sky is the limit for Coates.
D.Smith, OT/OG, Penn State: D.Smith played OT at PSU, he can play there in the NFL and likely be average at it. I however like Smith much more as an OG and I think he could be an all pro on the inside. Smith is a devastating run blocker and is better on the second level than gets reported. He reminds me a lot of current New Orleans Saints player J.Evans. It also wouldn't surprise me if he slips into the first round.
B.Koyack, TE, Notre Dame: I think he declared a year too early but all the skills and physical traits teams look for in a good starting TE are there. He would benefit greatly from not being thrust into a starters roll early. Two years in an NFL system though I think he will pay big dividends. His rookie year he will have value as a big red zone target with a very good set of hands
P.Dawson, LB, TCU: I don't care what his 40 time says, the guy flys around the football field like a one man wrecking crew. If it were not for the off the field issues Dawson would be a first rounder. He is always attacking downhill and plays the pass well. The problem however are can you trust him off the field? He is basically O.Thurman, and we know how stupidly ended his career early. He needs to find a way on to a veteran laden team that will have a better shot at keeping him in check off the field and focused on it
T.Hill, CB, Oregon: Known as "The Other Oregon CB". I really liked what I saw out of Hill when I watched Oregon play last year. Hill has very underrated instincts and is aggressive getting his hands on passes. That seems to be a lost art with CB's in today's game so it's refreshing to see a CB actually focus on it and excel at it. He will be a day 3 steal for some team
A.Amos, S, Penn State: Amos is not a chance taker but he rarely gets beat either. From a FS standpoint it's something you can live with. I think he actually has better instincts than he displayed in college but did what the scheme dictated him to do. I think he will be more than willing to take more risk if asked to by the staff. He's excellent in coverage with some CB play in his background. One issue he does have though that will drop him on boards is some pretty bad misses in run support
M.Davis, RB, South Carolina: In a loaded RB class Davis could end up being the steal of the class. He has very good balance which is the number one thing I look for in any RB. He is also quick in traffic as he is always looking to go down hill. He has had some injury issues in the past but if a team is looking for a one cut and go RB Davis is a very good option. He reminds me a lot of Travis Henry
Bills Only Mock Draft Version 1.0
Mike Watkins
2.C.Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M: At this time last year he was thought of to be a top 10 pick in 2015. He has since fallen off. The reason he was thought so highly of was and is his athletic ability. He has great feet and can get to the second level as good as any OL in the draft. He was exposed however in 2015 due to a lack of power. Teams figured it out and started bull rushing him as well as stunting bigger DT at him to expose him. With that in mind the Bills should make this selection with the intent of red shirting him. Get him in a year of training and working in an NFL weight room. That investment could pay dividends in 2016 if things go south with C.Glenn contract negotiations.
3.D.Randell, S, Arizona State: Randall is always around the ball, and I mean always. He's like a guided missile on the field. He plays far bigger than he is and that may get him into a little trouble on Sunday's. That said I think he could end up being one of the better DB's from the 2015 draft. He has better than advertised ball skills as well as the closing speed to play center field in a Rex Ryan defense. He is also an ideal last line of defense with his tackling skills. Randall is overall one of my favorite players in this draft
5. J.Ryan, LB, Michigan: Every Michigan game I watched this kid made a play or two. He's the type of player who will literally do anything you ask of him. He is scheme versatile which is something I value a lot in defensive players. He can play inside or outside in both a 4-3 and a 3-4. In a pinch could play DE in a 4-3 and hold his own. I think in his rookie year he will be a very good special teams player. From there he could be a solid starter to valuable depth at multiple positions.
6. E.J. Bibbs, TE, Iowa State: Bibbs Will drop because he doesn't have the blocking skills currently of an In-Line TE nor the athletic ability to be the slot TE that has gained popularity in recent years in the NFL. For teams that like to use an H-Back he is an ideal fit. Roman likes to employ this position in his scheme and Bibbs would be a nice fit. He has a great hands and a nose for the end zone. The blocking could use work, he's a willing blocker which is half the battle but needs better technique.
6. S.Carden, QB, East Carolina: In terms of football IQ he's among the best if not the best in the draft. Unfortunately his arm doesn't match that football IQ. He may have some issues with the deep ball on Sunday's but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a place. I think he can beat out Tuel and at the very least be a capable number 2 one day. He makes smart decisions with the football and is over the 60% completion percentage which is mandatory with any QB drafted in my opinion.
7. C.Crawford DE, Clemson: Has more talent than he often shows. Motor is an issue as it's pretty obvious he takes plays off. He has also had a couple of off the field issues, nothing major. He is an ideal fit as a 3-4 DE and I think sticking him on the practice squad and letting Rex Ryan work with him could turn him to at least solid depth one day.
-I agree with what Peter King reported, once you get to the mid-teens beauty is in the eye of the beholder. A guy like Jake Fisher could be a top 20 pick or drop into the 50's. That's indicative of a week draft
-I expect teams to lean much more towards BPA drafting than need based. It would be the smart way to navigate it
- keep an eye on the players that underachieved but excellent athletic skills. Players rated this way tend to rise in weak drafts. Teams believe they can "Fix Them"
-Bills really could do anything in the second and third round. Those thinking they will absolutely go OL I think are wrong. Thinking you can get a starting OL in the second round is a stretch and I think the Bills believe it also. That however doesn't mean they won't take one if they represent the best player on the board
-Somewhere I imagine the Bills will take a QB. They have been aggressive all offseason with the offense. If Grayson is there in round 2 I bet the Bills pulls the trigger. They can't wait on EJ anymore, Cassel is a stop gap, and sinking a second rounder in a QB this year doesn't keep them from the QB market next year
-I think Whaley was right to temper fans expectations about this draft. Coming away with 1 starter would be good, 2 would be very impressive. The goal here for the Bills I think is to build up depth and provide possible options in the future when the Bills can not retain some of their more coveted free agents
Bills Scouts Attend Garrett Grayson's Pro Day- Schedule Private Workout
Anthony D. Macari @nflwarroom
It's no surprise the Bills are doing there do diligence with all the top prospects in the draft, especially at QB. However, in the past, there is a significant correlation between Bills draft picks who have paid pre-draft visits to One Bills Drive or who have had private workouts. After Coloroda State QB Garrett Grayson had his pro day on Monday, Drew Boyhart reported that the Bills had scheduled a private workout.
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images
Grayson is widely believed to be battling Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley to be the 3rd QB taken off the board somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd round. With numerous reports the Broncos, Browns, Dolphins and Jets are all expressing interest, it would seem if the Bills want him it will cost them their first pick, a second rounder, to land him. Grayson's stock has been on a steady climb after a solid senior bowl week performance and with a solid pro day.
Grayson has a good NFL caliber arm capable of making all the throws with accuracy at all levels. He has a bit of a low 3/4 release that isn't the quickest or most sound mechanically. His greatest asset is his pocket presence were he uses his plus athleticism to step up or slide instinctively when feeling pressure.
The Bills would corner themselves into making some pretty quick major decisions at QB if they were to select one in the 2nd or 3rd round. you would assume a spot on the roster would have to be kept for a high draft pick. With 4 veterans already on the team, that would only leave 2 spots open for newly signed Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor and Bills returning QB's EJ Manuel and Jeff Tuel. Tuel would be an obvious first causality, but that would still leave a major decision regarding the roster status of Manuel, Cassel and Taylor. If a pick were to be used on a QB early, that may very well be the clearest indication that EJ Manuel's time in Buffalo is nearing an end.
5 One year Flier Free Agents for The Bills
5 One year Flier Free Agents for The Bills
Mike Watkins
We have officially hit the third tier of free agency in the NFL. At this point more teams are focused on the draft than free agents. The type of players left have numerous issues that kept them from signing in the first couple weeks. Some are injuries, some received bad advice and overvalued themselves, or they are just looking for the 1 year deal to up their value for 2016. Here are 5 I like for the Bills. I think bringing in 1 or 2 of these players could help the Bills in depth or possibly even a surprise starter
1.S.Brown, FS: Unfortunately for me I have been subject to a lot of Giants games over the years being that I live in NYC, Stevie Brown is always a player that I thought was underrated. Injury concerns are keeping him available right now. When he is healthy though Brown makes a lot of plays. He is a ball hawing CF'er type of safety that would fit nice into Rex's scheme. The Injuries are without a doubt a concern. If he is healthy though he could be a steal
2.B.Spikes, LB: Obviously he wanted to find a team that would lock him into a starters role. At this point that looks bleak at best. Spikes embraced Buffalo as much as Buffalo embraced him. I think he is worth bringing back as he is still very useful if injury occurs and on short yardage early down situations
3.B.J. Raji, DT/DE: Was once considered a key cog in the Green Bay defense, a bicep injury took away the 2014 season for him. He must be kicking himself not taking the 8 per average deal he was offered before the season began. I think he could be a fit here and at the absolute worst is worth bringing to camp. Motivation is a problem from him but I think he would for playing under Rex Ryan and rebuilding value
4.J.Barksdale, OT: The Bills have a pretty big issue with OT depth right now, in that it's terrible. Barksdale is by no means a starter but he could get you through a stretch if an injury pops up. He's a far better run blocker than pass blocker which would feed right into what the Bills are trying to do on offense
5.S.Wisniewski, OC/OG: This is the only player on this list I'd consider going more than one year on. He's likely still available due to recent shoulder surgery and initial asking price. He is at the very least a solid IOL. He could start at two position on the OL and would give the Bills some flexibility
Vikings Need to Reposition Themselves on Peterson
Vikings Need to Reposition Themselves on Peterson
Mike Watkins
Adrian Peterson and his agent seem to be a little confused. I actually can't blame them because the Vikings brass has led to the confusion. Peterson and his agent seem to think they are the ones that need to be sold on coming back to the Vikings and it's their choice. I'm sorry, what? For some reason they seem to think they are in the driver's seat of this decision.
I cannot completely hold them responsible for landing on this delusion. The Vikings decided to go visit Peterson in Texas and allow him to almost hold court with them. They felt the need to sell him on coming back. The Vikings did a terrible job by making this move. They allowed Peterson and his agent to be in the driver's seat from a public perspective. Now they are fighting to regain the position that has clearly spun out of control
The reality is this, and what should be clearly explained to Peterson and his agent, Peterson is under contract to the Vikings. They alone will decide where he plays next year and every year after until they no longer have that contract. At 30 years old and a big contract in tow moving Peterson will not be easy if there were no public displays by his agent. Now with his agent stating that the Vikings and Peterson are no longer a fit the possible return on a value in a trade gets diminished further.
The Vikings need to go on the offensive in this. Whether they do it publically or not is up to them. They need to state to Peterson that they alone will decide if they trade him or not. If he doesn't want to be here then he should be prepared to sit or honor his deal. They could also force his hand by telling him they want his entire 2014 salary and bonuses repaid to them as part of any trade. If Peterson and his agent want to make demands make them back. It's not an outlandish demand by any means. The Vikings paid Peterson millions of dollars to figure out his personal issues. How many companies out there would even consider this? Answer, not many
Everyone should keep in mind here that Peterson is the one who screwed up, not the Vikings. Yet somehow the Vikings have been put in the defensive position of trying to convince Peterson to come back. He has no choice but to come back if that's what the Vikings want. They need to regain control of the narrative so they can regain trade value if that is the route they want to take. From my point of view they should want to move him. At 30 years old and at his salary it would be wise for the Vikings to move on. To move on though they must get value back. Peterson and his agent are costing him value in a possible trade. The Vikings are allowing this to happen and need to regain control of the situation before it hits rock bottom and the Vikings get only five cents on the dollar.
Latest Test Case in the Dual Role of Coach/GM, Chip Kelly
Latest Test Case in the Dual Role of Coach/GM, Chip Kelly
Mike Watkins
Chip Kelly has been a headline maker since the moment he entered the league. He came from Oregon where he had one of the most explosive and entertaining offenses in the country. So naturally the media gravitated towards him. He gives them an abundance of angles to take when looking for a story. How fast he rocketed up the coaching ranks, his reliance and insistence on controlling the nutrition of his players, his fast paced offense, and now the fact that he wears the GM hat with the Eagles.
You can bet there are a lot of NFL owners out there keeping an eye on how this Chip Kelly structured Eagles team works out. The coach wearing the GM hat is nothing new to the NFL. There is a decent history of it. Its most popular time was in the late 90's and early 2000's where it almost became mandatory that if you wanted a big name coach you had to give him full control. The issue back then, as it remains today, is that the work load is just too much for one person to handle. Thus you have seen in the last decade the vast majority of teams move away from this model. Now nearly every owner is looking for the dynamic combo.
The biggest issue is that the league has become a 365 day a year venture. This rings completely true with the draft. It's no longer looked at as just some crap shoot teams have to show up for in late April (Obviously there are still some fans and media that still haven't grasp this yet). To wear both hats of the GM and Coach is a tremendous burden for anyone. You not only have to watch your own team you have to keep an eye on other teams around the league as well as in the college ranks.
That brings us to Kelly, make no mistake about it you are either with him or against him and he has complete and utter control. He jettison his best offensive player in L.McCoy for a talented former Oregon LB coming of a major knee injury in Kiko Alonso. Replaced him with not one but two starting caliber RB's in D.Murray and R.Matthews, one of whom was a very good player for a division rival. He traded a QB in Nick Foles that looked good in his offense for the oft injured but very talented Sam Bradford. He also gave a boat load of money to Seattle's number 2 CB to be his number 1 CB. Like him or hate him you cannot say the guy does not have a vision for what he wants his team to look like in the NFL. He missed the memo about how rare trades are in this league along with bold moves.
The issue here is there is no counterbalance for Kelly, he's it, he's the guy. So when he is making these moves there is no one with enough authority to tell him otherwise. This can be both good and bad. The good is there is only one guy to put the blame or the praise on. Chip Kelly owns every move the Eagles make. The bad is, he could set the Eagles back a decade before ownership figures out he is way over his head. At this point you could argue it either way
Chip Kelly made his power play and he won. Now the rest of the league watches as it becomes the test case for every future coach that as Bill Parcells once said "They want you to cook the dinner; at least they ought to let you shop for some of the groceries. Okay?". Chip Kelly is currently treating this offseason like an episode of Super Market Sweep. Eagles fans are hoping for a fine dining experience while the rest of the league waits to see if it's a more microwavable dinner.
Handicapping the Bills QB Competition
After a fast and furious start to the NFL league year for the Bills, the dust has settled on the first phase of team building for the new regime. With a month to go before the draft, the Bills have a dramatically revamped roster, particularly on offense. In addition to adding weapons at WR, RB, FB and TE, Rex Ryan and Doug Whaley have added two QBs to compete with EJ Manuel for the starting position.
Rex Ryan has promised a wide open competition among the 3 veterans. Rex certainly hopes the old adage that if you have two QBs you really have none, doesn't apply to cases where you have three. Jeff Tuel rounds out the competition but realistically faces an uphill battle just to remain on the roster. The possibility remains that the Bills add a 5th QB to the mix in the draft but without a first round pick, they will have limited options to upgrade the competition.
Matt Cassel has to be viewed as the slight favorite going into camp. Rex just got out of a situation were a young, highly drafted QB was in direct competition with a more experienced veteran. However, the Jets situation was as dysfunctional as it gets and Rex's hand was forced to go with the younger option. That didn't turn out well and Rex may be reluctant to repeat history despite some pressure from Whaley to start the younger prospect he spent a first round pick on just two drafts ago. While Cassel has had some success in the league, he has clearly not progressed to the point where he can be considered anything more than a journeyman stop gap option. With the weapons added on offense and the deep talent on defense in the capable hands of Rex Ryan, a journeyman stop gap veteran may be good enough to snap the leagues longest playoff drought. Of the 3 options, he represents the most know quantity. Like Orton a year ago, he brings the experience and leadership needed to quickly bring a young talented roster together. Rex and Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman could look to Cassel to manage a game plan heavy on the run game and short horizontal passing game. Alex Smith had success for Roman in San Francisco in a similar role. However, Cassel will have to dramatically reverse his career trend which has seen him throw and alarming 33 interceptions vs only 30 TD's in his last 4 seasons. Those are not the kind of numbers you want to see from a veteran care tacker. He has also had difficulty staying on the field and actually initially failed his physical with the Bills after being traded from the Vikings.
While Cassel's experience gives him the edge, there is no doubt the best case scenario at One Bills Drive is that EJ Manuel, in his 3rd year, dramatically matures and emerges as the undisputed starter. While the pro tape for EJ is limited, that tape clearly shows the game at this level is simply too fast for him. I recently re-watched tape of EJ from his sophomore year at Florida State and was shocked to see how much more tentatively his game seems to be now than it was when he was first cutting his teeth for the Seminoles. The reads were simple and he still didn't always make the right decision, but he played with a fearlessness that allowed him to make plays with his legs and arm that he simply has shown no sign of at the pro level. Instead, he was all to quick to check down no matter the situation to avoid making the big mistake. While that may not be the worst thing on a team with a defense as talented as the Bills, nothing disheartens a team's confidence in its QB than open receivers down field not getting the ball. Especially when the ball goes underneath short of the first down marker on 3rd down after 3rd down. There were also reports from players that EJ was too passive in the huddle. When a QB with as little charisma as Kyle Orton can be seen as a true field general by comparison, something might be wrong. The only hope for EJ, is that reports coming from the Bills front office that EJ's demotion last year was handled by him in a way that was truly beneficial. that he realized by watching a veteran lead an offense what it takes and is truly motivated to develop into the kind of QB the Bills thought he could when they took him in the first round of the 2013 draft. The Bills drafted him highly with the hope he could develop his prototypical size, rocket arm and decent straight-line speed and athleticism into a franchise QB. He has the presence to command a room off the field that you hope will translate into strong leadership on the field. However, sometimes even when you can check all the individual boxes, the sum of the parts still come up short. EJ will have an opportunity to show he is more than what Mike Mayock described him as when he was drafted, a lump of clay waiting to be developed. Potential can be a curse when undeveloped and unless the game significantly slows down for him and he once again plays with the reckless abandon of a young emerging collegiate star, hye may never shake that curse.
The dark horse candidate for the job, is a player who also had to learn from the bench. Like EJ, Tyrod Taylor came into the league as a lump of clay brimming with potential but far from being a pro ready prospect. In fact, most teams asked him to make the switch to Wide Receiver. With 4.5 speed and dynamic play making ability with the ball in his hand, he likely would have been able to make that switch. However, he stuck to his guns and decided to take the more difficult path to his dream of being an NFL starter. As Rex has repeatedly said, Taylor may just be the fastest QB in the league. Along with his blazing speed, he also has that unique athletic ability to extend plays in the pocket and slip tackles in the open field that will bring fans out of their seats and lift teammates off the bench. Taylor also has the flare for the dramatic at Virginia Tech and in limited pre-season action for the Ravens, leading the Hokies and Ravens to several dramatic last minute wins. Rex may see Taylor as a potential read option, change of pace QB, but Taylor himself may be out to prove, after a 4 year apprenticeship in Baltimore behind Joe Flacco, that he is full time starter materiel. Taylor actually has done exactly what the experts say a prospect with his raw ability should do, sit and learn. He's had the opportunity to practice every day against one of the leagues best defenses and obviously showed enough for the Ravens to keep him around as the primary back up since his rookie year. By all accounts, Taylor is also a solid positive presence in the locker room. At the very least, the Bills have themselves a dynamic change of pace option, but don't be surprised if a year from now, we all look back and say despite all the other additions to the team this off-season, the Taylor signing proved to be the most significant. On a team with the kind of speed at the skill positions, adding Taylor to the mix could be simply too much for opposing defenses to defend. While Taylor has a solid arm with a quick release, his lack of accuracy on the intermediate range passes could prove to be his downfall, but he can deliver the big throw down-field with touch and would excel in a horizontal offense given the speed now at WR, RB and TE.
There is also always the chance the Bills add another QB to the roster through the draft if one they like falls to them. Gil Brandt reported Rex Ryan flew out to Texas to workout Bryce Petty. Petty was a successful college QB running the same wide open attack that inflated the pre-draft ranking of RGIII. Petty has all of the intangibles you want in a QB and also brings prototypical size and arm strength. However, short and intermediate range accuracy comes and goes for Petty. Two cracked bones in his spine, similar to the injury Cowboys QB Tony Romo suffered, could be a cause of regression in Petty's mechanics. He likely is not NFL ready and would be a true risk reward pick who's value probably doesn't make sense until the 3rd or 4th round. Yet, some team will likely fall in love with his potential and reach in the 2nd. Brett Hundley is most often named as the #3 QB after Mariota and Winston, but the similarities to Manuel are stark and he is two years behind in development. Like Manuel, Hundley will be drafted more on potential than production. One QB option I do like and wouldn't mind the Bills taking a flier on him in the 3rd round if available is Garrett Grayson. Although undersized, he has some experience under center, has good pocket presence and the arm to make all the throws. His accuracy and arm strenght require a clean pocket where he can step into his throws but he does have some escapability and the ability to throw outside the pocket.
So if your a betting man, Cassel is the odds on favorite and safest bet to start the season but there may be some pressure to give Manuel one last shot. If you're looking for the big payday and want to play the longshot, Tyrod Taylor just may surprise when all things are said and done. Save your money on prospects in this draft class or with also ran candidate Jeff Tuel.
Clay Day Finally Arrives in Buffalo
Clay Day Finally Arrives in Buffalo
Mike Watkins
It took a while to get there but the Bills finally landed the player that sat atop their wish list for Free Agency. Charles Clay signed the Bills offer sheet and a couple days later the Miami Dolphins decided to let him go. Fans of both teams witnessed a chess game back in forth between two teams in the same division. At times it was fun, most of the time it seemed to drag on endlessly. In the end though the Bills landed the player they wanted and the Dolphins prepared for life without Clay
For the Bills Clay represents the most talent they have had at the position in a while. While Clay has had some injury issues in the past he has proven to be a productive player on the field. Many will ask why the Bills paid such a high cost for Clay. They gave him similar money to some of the elite TE's in the NFL.
The answer is pretty simple, Roman's style of offense values a TE he can move around the field. He is asked to be an H-Back, FB, In Line TE, Slot WR, all while being able to be a proficient blocker both in line and on the second and third levels. There are not a whole lot of players walking around with that specific skill set. Clay is one of them and honestly may be the best one of the bunch.
You cannot just look at Clay's reception numbers and come to a conclusion on why the Bills and Roman wanted him. His value is going to show up a lot when the game is being played but will not be fully reflected on the stat sheet. Clay will be a safety valve for the Bills QB's, whomever that may be. That is something that they have not had in a long time. He is a good route runner who can identify the weak spots in coverage and move towards them. This is important with what the Bills have at the WR position. If they can drag the coverage down field this will allow Clay to work the middle of the field. Chances are he will be lined up with a LB and that is a tough assignment for nearly every LB in the league. That contribution will show up on the stat sheet
What won't show up on the stat sheet for him is when he is on the second level and the pass makes its way to say RB L.McCoy. At this point clay becomes a FB who is good at blocking a moving target. It's blocks on the second and third level that can turn a 6 yard gain into a 60 yard TD. That will never show up for Clay on his stat sheet but it's an important feature in the offense the Bills are constructing right now. YAC will be the name of the game in Buffalo. To do that you have to have willing and able blockers on the second and third level. These players are a lot harder to find than some think.
From the Miami perspective I can see why they are willing to let him go. Miami's offense doesn't really require a lot from the TE. It is more focused on getting the ball to the WR's. Miami over all would prefer to have a 3 number 2 WR's than a 1, a 2, and a 3. They focus on spreading the ball and letting the WR's make plays. Clay numbers dropped in Miami partly due to this. They were far more focused on getting the ball to Wallace and Hartline than Clay. For what they paid J.Cameron and what they have in D.Sims it made no sense to keep Clay at the price the Bills paid for him.
One thing I will defend Miami on. I keep seeing "they could have avoided this by just spending the extra 1.3 million to franchise tag him". Personally I don't think they wanted to avoid another team negotiating with Clay. I think they wanted it and welcomed it. They don't value him enough to pay the franchise tag cost on him nor the transition tag. I think they wanted him to hit the open market hoping another team would agree with their valuation and sign him to a deal that they could match. Or at the very least they are only on the hook for one year at appx 7 million that they could have negotiated down on a long term.
Signing Clay to the franchise tag made no sense for them. By doing so they are going far over what they want to pay for the position. Second, absolutely no one is going to give first rounder's for Clay. So that keeps any teams from negotiating with him which again leaves his open market value up to opinion. Plus if Clay and his agent had any clue they would immediately sign the franchise tender locking him into that 8+ million guaranteed and then likely freeing him up next year. That is one thing the Dolphins definitely did not want to happen. Thus they moved on.
The Bills have clearly focused on offense this offseason and are giving their current QB's as many weapons as they can to help them succeed. They definitely have not sat quietly on the sideline with a shoulder shrug going "well we don't have a QB". They have been pro-active about finding alternative ways to build and compete while the search for that elusive franchise QB continues. One thing is for certain though, if a franchise QB does become available the Bills have made themselves into a very attractive destination for one looking to win now. This is a point in the media that seems to have gone right over their heads, and it should not be looked over nor diminished. The Bills clearly have a plan and they are executing it aggressively, for Bills fans they welcome this effort with open arms.
Chris Borland Should Have The NFL Concerned
Chris Borland Should Have The NFL Concerned
Mike Watkins
Jake Locker at 26
Jason Worilds at 27
And now Chris Borland in his sophomore year at age 24
All three have abruptly ended their NFL careers with concerns over future injuries impacting each one to varying degrees, and this should have the NFL extremely concerned. It's a disturbing trend that has been bubbling in the NFL for a while.
The most disturbing of the group is Borland. After a fantastic rookie year he was staring down the future of a 10 plus year career and millions of dollars. He has decided to give that up citing head injuries as a major concern. Surprising is the first word that comes to mind
Can you really blame him? An increasing number of NFL veterans are not even making it to 60. If you go to any NFL event with former players you will see a lot of them are having a very hard time with multiple physical ailments. Seeing this over and over can have a very big impact on a young player. They are sure to start asking themselves if playing the game they love is worth the lifetime of pain they may have afterword's. Borland decided it was not for him.
This also comes at a time when the NFL is making a lot of medical and safety advancements aimed at player safety and extending careers into players late 30's and sometimes 40's. Despite that though football is clearly being impacted by the rash of concussions around the league and its changing the game. It's a very impactful change that will eventually start working its way down through the channels into college, the high school level, all the way to a parent deciding whether or not they sign the release to allow their child to play the game.
The overreaction to this Borland retirement will be that most will start drafting the eulogy for the demise of the NFL. Don't be fooled, the NFL is not going anywhere anytime soon. The NFL isn't the NBA, it's not a star driven league. It can take a few players deciding to end their careers early. For every Borland that retires there will be another 20 players racing at the chance to replace him.
With that said, the NFL still should be concerned. A retirement like Borland's sends waves through the league and may influence other players to leave whom have been considering it. The NFL has been proactive in advancing player safety but they should be even more active in the prevention and especially in the post career. Not every player walks away from the game with millions of dollars set for life. A good amount of them move on to other careers.
The NFL has a problem and it's shown by the comments I've read this morning from 49er fans. I expect to see their blind loyalty outweigh the health of Borland. It's been the opposite however. Most are applauding Borland and his decision to walk away from the game and millions of dollars. Its shows that fans have now accepted that this game is very harmful to the individuals who decided to play it. So much so that they have started to put their own deep rooted loyalties to the side. At some point this will begin to affect the entry levels of this game with morality of the decisions placed on the parents to decide if they want them to be a part of this game. That's the problem the NFL faces and the problem they must feverishly addressed to maintain the health of the game, question is, is it too late?
Thoughts on The Harvin, Felton, Taylor Deals
Mike Watkins
Percy Harvin, ATH/WR: I'm not the biggest Percy Harvin. I feel he has been overrated for a while now, mostly due to that he doesn't understand what his role on most teams is. He isn't a classic WR and thus really shouldn't be used as one. The biggest reason for this is because he's a pretty horrid route runner and he has issues reading coverage. That doesn't mean however that he doesn't have a place in the league. Harvin is as explosive as it gets with the ball in his hands. The Bills have to find a way to do that, and do it in open space. There have been numerous issues with this in the past with countless players and staffs.
On a one year deal it's really hard to dump on the Bills for this move. If he can stay healthy they added a player defenses have to account for and when he is on his game can tilt a defense. It will be interesting to see how Roman deploys him in this offense. Roman does like players that can play multiple roles. Overall it's not a bad move but I'm also not overly excited because I don't think nor expect his Viking numbers. I'm also hoping that Harvin has had a bit of a reality check over the past two years. Yes there were other teams interested in him but no one was going to pay him anywhere near what he was making. Harvin has a lot riding on this year. This year will set up his likely last multi-year deal of his career.
Jerome Felton, FB: FB is one of those positions some Bills fans seem to want year in and year out even though the position has almost faded completely from the NFL. As far as talent goes Felton is top 5 at the position. The real question however is how McCoy will respond to having Felton blocking for him. Not all RB's like a FB in front of them. It can sometimes lead to congestion or if they are out of sink a lot of negative or no gains. It will be a little bit of a work in progress but I think it will have a positive effect. The signing represents a clear upgrade
Tyrod Taylor, QB: Taylor is an ultra athletic QB that has been planted on the Baltimore bench for awhile. I personally am for any QB move at this point. He has a decent arm and can be a threat with his feat. It's a long shot at best to expect anything spectacular from him but given the position the Bills QB position is in nearly anybody is worth a shot. The Bills were not the only team interested in Taylor and for good reason, he has a lot of raw athletic ability. A the very least you can be utilized in some sub packages
Hughes Stays Home
Mike Watkins
For as much grief as some like to heap on Buffalo with the mantra of "who would want to play there", Buffalo has yet again shown that it's not as bad as it's made out to be. Jerry Hughes is the latest example of a player who once he is in Buffalo, often doesn't want to leave. At first Jerry Hughes shook off the mention of a hometown discount at the end of last season. He's completely within his right to do so. When you have a rare skill set you should always try and maximize what someone will pay you. Especially if you are making a career out of a sport. You only have a short amount of time to maximize your income. Yet when it came down to a bigger pay check or staying in Buffalo, he chose Buffalo (Admittedly he still made out very well contract wise).
Hughes was once thought a bust, and rightfully so. The Colts made him a first round selection and a lot of people likened him a bit to Jason Taylor. An edge rusher who could change games as he did in college at TCU. Once he landed with the Colts it never seemed to come together. He would tease with his talent but would always disappear.
The Bills had the same high hopes for Kelvin Sheppard. An ILB thumper who could lead the defense. He like Hughes was disappointing. So the teams decided to swap their perceived draft mistakes. Hughes signs a 45 million dollar deal and Sheppard may be out of the league. So there is no reason to debate who won the trade, the answer is pretty obvious.
Heading up to Free Agency Hughes was primed to make a very large contract. After the tag deadline passed he then became arguably the top pass rusher on the open market. In a league heading more towards the passing game it greatly increased his value. Hughes was going to cash in big time from a team flush with cap space looking to upgrade their pass rush.
Problem for those teams is the Bills saw the value in bringing him back and didn't even want to let him out the door. Adding Hughes back into the fold became very important to the Bills. They recognized that keeping arguably the premier front 4 in the NFL together has a lot of value. Rex Ryan now has as much talent in the front 7 as he did since his days with the Ravens as a DC.
It's one thing to build a strength but it's a whole other to keep it a strength. The Bills realize that with no franchise QB of the sorts on the roster they had to keep their elite unit intact to have a shot at the playoffs this year. Keeping Hughes here with an elite defensive mind like Rex at the helm can take an already very good defense to another level.
It's that type of thinking that I believe kept Hughes in Buffalo. I'm sure he had bigger offers from Jacksonville and maybe the Raiders. What would he really be getting by moving to one of these team for say an extra 5-7 million on top of the deal he could have in Buffalo? Sure it's a lot of money and it's tough to turn it away. In Buffalo however he still gets to be a part of a unit that has made a name for itself terrorizing opposing QB's. In Buffalo he still gets to play in front of a diehard fan base that appreciates hard work and good defenses. In Buffalo he gets to play for a coach that can take his game to an even higher level. Most importantly in Buffalo he gets to play for the franchise that saw something and believed in him enough to put him on the field to make plays, making him the best player he can be
Thank You Jerry Hughes, for staying and believing in Buffalo like they believe in you…
Thoughts on The McCoy Alonso Trade
Mike Watkins
My initial reaction to the McCoy for Kiko trade was a strong dislike for it. I could not fathom trading a young promising LB who excelled in the system that Rex will put back in place for a soon to be 27 year old RB on a monster deal. I'll admit it Kiko was one of my favorite Bills players and I was excited to see him play this season. Now that I've had some time to digest the trade it's become more acceptable and reasonable but still a stunner overall, especially at the speed in which it took place
Let's start off with McCoy. My first initial issues with the trade were McCoy's age and his price tag. Right now McCoy is heading out of his prime. So the Bills will not be paying him for his best years they will likely be paying for his decline. Now that decline will have some years that will be better than some best years. That's just the type of talent McCoy is.
In general a RB's prime years are 23-27. This is when they are at their peak ability and the wear and tear of the league has yet to catch up with them. McCoy at 27 likely has 1 really good year left, a couple good years and then we will see a decline. Now how sharp the decline is will be up for debate. McCoy has a running style, Elusive, that tends to have a longer high end shelf life than the other bulldozer style of running. McCoy doesn't seek out contact he looks to avoid. This will extend his career outwards a long ways especially if he accepts a 3rd down RB roll in his 30's. This is also why I prefer RB's McCoy style as opposed to the other bulldozer type.
Overall I'm not too worried about the prime years left after thinking about it. The Bills for the most part have to make a run now before some of their key players like Kyle Williams and Mario Williams start to decline as well as the cap catching up with them. So the 2-3 year window makes sense. If it's not working you will likely see a roster blow up in 2-3 years anyway.
That's brings us to the cap hit. Now the Bills have to be careful how they structure this. I would not add any more than one year to the current deal and would try my best to restructure and move some money around to his benefit within the current years allotted in the deal. The relief can be had without the Bills being too much on the hook for his declining years which is what they should look to avoid. Overall the contract isn't terrible for the type of talent McCoy is. He's arguably the best RB in the NFL. The money needs to be moved around however to help the Bills make some other key moves as they obviously are looking to make a playoff push now and not later.
Now on to Kiko Alonso. The issues I had with moving Kiko is that he looked very much like an up and coming talent that was about to be playing in a defense that made him look like an elite talent. He also had a very manageable contract that would allow the Bills a lot of flexibility with both lineups and offseason moves. Some have tried to downplay the second half of his rookie season. What I saw was an excellent player naturally hitting a rookie wall. Make no mistake about Kiko is a gamer and will continue to be one in Philly. The Eagles fans should be excited about the player they received in return for McCoy
While I like Kiko the Bills are very much in a win now mode and in a transition as to how the offensive side of the ball will be run. With this in mind the trade became more reasonable. While I like Kiko Alonso and thought he had and has a very bright future, the Bills will be fine without him as they were last year. Preston Brown exceeded expectations and looks like he will be a very good ILB for the Bills for a long time. The Bills front office has also shown a knack for being able to identify LB talent in the draft. So they must feel confident that if they had to they could pluck another one out of the draft.
Another reason why the trade doesn't bother me as much is one of the things I used to criticize Rex Ryan for in his days with the Jets. What he would seem to do is sink a lot of assets into that side of the ball to keep it flush with talent and leaving the offense near devoid of talent. It also provided a built in excuse, "My defense works, it the OC and offense that cant get it together". My reasoning always was that if Rex is such a defensive mastermind shouldn't he be able to do more with less? I feel like with the moves he has made thus far, and this trade is a prime example, he has learned from that mistake in New York. I think he now realizes that if he pumps up the offense with talent he can make it work on defense and still be a top 5 defense with the talent he has. Kiko at this point was more of a luxury for Rex than a necessity. Due to that he likely felt he could move Kiko and still have his defense running at a peak level with a combination of Brown, Bradham, and maybe David Harris via free agency
With McCoy I understand some of the trepidations Bills fans have with the move. The latest and greatest line being pumped out is "RB's are a Dime a Dozen". To a point I agree yes they are. RB's who can give you 700-1100 yards are a dime a dozen these days. RB's on McCoy level who can make things very difficult of defenses week in and week out and have the talent to go 1500-1800 yards however are not a dime a dozen. There is a distinct line between good and elite, McCoy sits on the elite side of that line
McCoy is a special talent that can make opposing teams pay in a number of ways. He is just as deadly taking the handoff as he is receiving the ball. He is a true 3 down RB. Once the ball is in his hands he can score from anywhere on the field and has some of the best vision in the league. He's in reality a lot of what the Bills thought they were getting when they drafted CJ Spiller, obviously Spiller did not end up being that.
I don't agree with this narrative that the Bills are just going to grind him into the ground the next three years. Yes McCoy will obviously get the bulk of the carries and likely the most touches on offense. I still see the Bills using Fred Jackson to spell him even more than Sproles did with the Eagles. Dixon should still get some touches and B.Brown is a bit of a wild card but if an injury occurs he will be right in the mix as well.
"But they still don't have a QB" is the quote I'm hearing most often from some media. Some people seem to be confused as to the supply of these types of QB's and where they are acquired. It's not like there is a bunch of franchise QB's out there in free agency or on other teams ready to be traded and the Bills ignored them for McCoy. These are the types of moves you have to make when you cannot get your hands on the franchise QB. You have to find alternative methods. Not all teams or going to have that type of access to a franchise QB. The reality is the Bills do not have any way of acquiring a QB that is head over heels better than what they have. That doesn't mean they should attempt it but you do so knowing you're essentially trying to catch lightning in a bottle. So you do what you can. Try and build it up around what you have at QB to lessen the need on the position with an attempt to avoid getting in shootouts with teams who have clearly better QB's. The Bills have and are trying to do that at the moment. I can't fault them for this, it's a far better method of operation than hoping for a QB to pan out from the free agency pile
This is one of those rare trades that I believe benefits both teams. In the short term it will ultimately help the Bills more. Long term the Eagles may set up to get the better end of it. Given the rare amount of player for player for trades in the NFL it's even rarer for it actually benefit both sides. After the initial shock of the trade I'm on board with it and am excited to see McCoy in action next year. One thing is for sure the standard offseason operation for the Bills has drastically changed and hopefully for the better.
Bills Free Agency Preview
Mike Watkins
The Hello NFL, I'm Terry F'ing Pegula and I'm gonna make it rain Free Agents
-J.Houston, OLB: Listen I like J.Hughes just as much as the next guy, but the thought of having Houston on one side Mario on the other with Dareus and Williams in the Middle would bring tears all across the board. Tears of Joy for Bills fans, and tears of fear for opposing teams. Sure there is about zero chance this happens for multiple reasons but that's why it's on this part of the list
-D.Revis, CB: Rex Ryans other man crush. Revis is everything Rex wants in a CB and Rex defense plays exactly into what Revis does best on the field. With the importance of CB play in Rex defense I imagine he will convince the Bills to go hard after him. Unlike Houston this has a legit chance of happening. I'm personally not scarred off by the years because I think much like Rod Woodson and Charles Woodson I believe Revis will end his career as a very good safety
-J.Thomas, TE: There are few positions the Bills fans have been begging for more over the past decade and half then a play making TE. Thomas represents want and need. Grant it his numbers are inflated by Peyton Manning but even with the inflated numbers accounted for he would be light years ahead of anything the Bills have had in, well, light years
The yea I've got deep pockets but I'm not going to Snyder this thing up in my first year Free Agents
-Charles Clay, TE: The guy just makes plays when he is out there. He is coming off a knee injury that kept his numbers down in 2014 which in turn will keep his contract down a little. This would be a signing that would help in 2 ways. One it improves the Bills, and two it weakens the Dolphins. He has a lot of D.Keller to him, which Rex knows all to well
-O.Franklin, OG/OT: The ability to play either LG or RT at a high level will attract a lot of teams and the Bills will be one of them given that they without a doubt have a major problem at one of those positions and a possible problem at the other if a young S.Henderson doesn't develop
-C.Boling, OG: Everyone is looking and hoping for Iupati but I like Boling better because I think he is the better player and he will also be cheaper than the aforementioned Iupati. I'd rather pay for game then name
-P.McPhee, OLB/DE: Not your household name yet but if Hughes bolts McPhee would be a good substitute. Every Ravens game I watched this kid made plays. He's equally good against the run and the pass. He's talented enough where the Ravens may extend him and waive bye bye to Suggs or Dumerville
-J.Odrick, DE/DT: Odrick was made for a system like Rex Ryans and if he and his agent were smart they would find a way to get him to a hybrid scheme like Rex's. He is a jack of all trades DL who is good in all phases of the game. He'll never get the awards but he is one of those players that makes everyone around him better
The lets pump the breaks they are about to be overpaid Free Agents
-M.Iupati, OG: Look, I get it, the guy is an absolute monster in the run game and he leaves a little to be desired in pass protection but not much. For what he is going to command on the open market I really don't think he is worth it. The Bills are obviously in need of this exact position but there will be good players out there at a far less cost
-N.Fairley, DT: I feel like this guy is still living off of his one good college year. Sure he has had some flashes here and there but playing next to the beast that is Suh helped spark that flash
I guess I have to sign a QB Free Agents
-Jake Locker, QB: This is seriously with a gun to my head because there is no QB out there worth signing and expecting anything out of. So it came down to a flip of the coin between Locker and Mallett. As you can see Locker won. I had Locker extremely overhyped coming out of college but he does have some good physical traits when you know, he's not on IR
The Under the Radar I hope I hit on these because I barely have any draft picks Free Agents
-J.Gresham, TE: He has talent and shows flashes of it from time to time. I personally think this is a change of scenery player who could blossom elsewhere. The Bengals have a lot of offensive options so Gresham tends to get lost. If he was featured a little more he could finally reach his potential
-A.Clayborn, DE: I liked Clayborn coming out of Iowa. He is coming of an injury this past year that cost him 15 games. His biggest issue in my opinion is that he has been playing in a defense that doesn't really suit him his whole career. I think he would be far better off in a hybrid type system than a straight 4-3
-S.Brown, S: Ask any Colts fan and they will tell you that Brown is better than L.Laundry, and they are right. He played very well for the Colts down the stretch
I'm going to go ahead and pass on them Free Agents
-D.Harris, ILB: Signing this guy would make about zero sense to me. To me he is now an older more expensive version of B.Spikes. At that point the Bills might as well keep Spikes in the fold.
-M.Sanchez, QB: I'm not clueless, I get it, there is actually an extremely good shot of this guy coming to Buffalo. Reality is he is the ultimate tease at QB. He will make some throws and have some games that make you think, yea its finally clicked for him. Then he will revert right back to, I can't believe this guy has an IQ higher than 50 games and throws. He is what he is at this point in his career. A good back up that can get you through a 4 game stretch at .500 but that's about it
The Rex Ryan Glue Guy Free Agents
-L.Douzable, DL: I can't be the only one who noticed that this guy always seem to make a play or two every time the Jets played. He is by no means a starter but is a solid rotation player who knows the system
-D.Landry, S: I don't think he will start many if any games at all, but he knows Rex's system and that has value. Given his age and up and down production this should be a cheap signing and one that is more of an on the field coach more than anything else
The homerun or strike out nothing in between free agents
-A.Cromartie, CB: If the Bills would be getting 2014 Cromartie than it's a no brainer. If they are getting 2013 Cromartie then absolutely no way you even consider him. At age 31 I believe he is closer to the 2013 version than the 2014 version.
-B.Orakapo, DE/OLB: Orakapo will be one of the most interesting Free Agents to follow this offseason. He is ultra talented when he is healthy. The problem is he is rarely healthy anymore. So giving this guy any type of big money is truly a roll of the dice. Now if Hughes gets away I am completely on board with that roll of the dice. Mainly because while still a decent sized contract I still think he could be a bargain. If he is healthy then the Bills have by far the best front 7 in football and it wont be close
Other Thoughts
-Realistically I expect the Bills to be aggressive in the free agency period. They actually need to be with no first round pick this year. That doesn't mean I expect them or want them to toss money all around the place. They still have to be smart and calculated about it.
-I expect Offense and former Rex players to be the name of
the game in Free Agency. With limited draft picks in a shallow draft they have
to set themselves up to be able to pick the BPA in every round
Thoughts On the Richie Incognito Signing
Mike Watkins
Obviously the Bills made an interesting signing this week when they brought in offensive guard Richie Incognito. There is no reason to rehash why Incognito is such a controversial player. If you are reading this then you know the story and if you don't I really don't know where you have been for the past year and a half.
The need is obvious with the signing. The OG position has been a complete dumpster fire the past two years. Incognito immediately became the most talented OG on the roster once the pen hit the paper. That speaks much more to the complete lack of talent on the Bills roster much more than it does Incognito's talents. The Bills clearly need help and they did not want to wait until the free agent doors opened.
Overall from a fit standpoint Incognito is exactly what they are looking for at the position. He has always been a poor mans Kevin Gogan. He is an average to sometimes good OG game to game. Better in the run game than in the pass and provides that nasty streak on the field that coaches often look for in the position. So from a pure on the field move it's a no brainer with what Rex and Roman want to do with this offense.
Now obviously there are plenty that take issue with the signing because of the harassment charges from his Dolphin days. There is no doubt that is a concern and the one year deal represents that concern. The Bills really have no risk other than maybe a week or two of bad press if it goes wrong again.
I for one do not take issue with the signing. I believe that every wrong decision has a penalty and once that penalty is paid its time to move on. I think the year and half Incognito spent away from the game constitutes paying the penalty. I don't believe that Incognito should just be banished forever and live his life in exile.
Everyone makes mistakes, I've made them, you've made them, we have all made them. I've found in my 30 plus years on this earth that I often change and learn the most after a mistake and more often than not for the better. I do not like this branding of someone when they make a mistake or they do something wrong that the person shall forever be identified and known as that mistake. To me it's foolish at best.
I also believe that it is unbelievable ignorant to say that Kim Pegula or the Bills franchise and fan base somehow deem it ok and are fine with Incognito for his past discretions simply because he signed here. I'm not, they are not, and none of us will ever be fine with what he did. I'm not here to make excuses for Incognito nor are they and there is no stamp of approval on those past actions. That version of Incognito may not even exist anymore. Personally I don't know and I bet no one else knows either including Richie himself.
I haven't always had this mindset. I've found that as I get older that forgiveness is more of a virtue and changing is inevitable across the board. For me I'll be rooting for Incognito to show that change is possible, recognize what he did was wrong, and show that positive change can come from a bad situation. I hope Incognito understands the opportunity that has been given to him by the Bills and that he takes full advantage of it. The better person and player he is will not only benefit him but the Bills team as a whole.
Run Down of The Bills Free Agents
Run Down of The Bills Free Agents
Mike Watkins
Main Free Agents
CJ Spiller: I like Spiller and think he can a very explosive back when he is given lanes and space. There are a few issues though. For starters he cannot seem to stay healthy which is a problem with any type of big commitment. The second issue is his age, at 28 the Bills or any team for that matter would be crazy to sink any type of big money into him. He is a nice player to have but only at the right price
What to Do: I'd let him test the market and the most I'd offer is just south of what R.Bush got from Detroit. Absolutely nothing over 4 years though
Prediction: Spiller leaves town. I think the Bills will be right to move on because sinking any type of real money into a RB at his age with his injury history would be a mistake. My guess is with the Jets or Giants. Jets make sense with the Gailey there and the Giants front office was very high on him coming out of college and tried to move up for him.
J.Hughes: I wouldn't say Hughes is an absolute must to bring back but he's clearly the top FA on this list that the Bills should attempt to lock up. He has proven to be very productive on this team in multiple systems which has a lot of value. Knowing this his agent will want to try and get to the market to land a big deal. The Bills will have to convince him otherwise. They do have some carrots to dangle with a system he produces in and playing alongside ultra-talented players on defense
What to Do: I'd try not to let him get to market. 5/48/20 the absolute max I would go. The reality is if they don't bring him back there will be many other pass rushers looking to line up alongside Williams, Williams, and Dareus
Prediction: I think Hughes exits. While the Bills are trying to lock him up now he is eventually going to start to get some open market numbers from some teams. While Hughes has blossomed in Buffalo I believe he is going to let money determine where he lands. It's not impossible to bring him back because I'm sure he knows the extreme advantage he has playing around the talent he does here
B.Spikes: I'm much more a fan of Spikes then when they signed him. He is still is the one dimensional 2 down LB he was when they signed him. However he brought an attitude and a pride to run defense that the Bills had been searching for, for years now. If the Bills had stayed with Schwartz it would have been nearly impossible to bring him back based on numbers alone. With Rex Ryan in town with his scheme it becomes more plausible for him to return but still unlikely. The Price has to be right along with the years though.
What To Do: I think he has taken to Buffalo and would like to stay. A contract in the 3-4 year range between 10-14 million would be about right for a player that is a 2 down player
Prediction: This is a tough one but I think the Bills find a way to keep him on the fold. He seems to have really taken to the area and team but will he accept a reduced role is what will determine this
D.Searcy: I like Searcy I think he is a solid but not spectacular player. He is great depth and a starter you can live with. I think he wants nothing to do with Depth and I also think he will find it too hard to crack the starting lineup with Williams entrenched and Rex likely to bring in one of his own guys
What To Do: I wouldn't even offer him a deal. Searcy has been a solid player but I think it's time to move on
Prediction: I think he will be gone and I imagine may try and follow Schwartz
Other UFA
-E.Pears: I think his time has run its course on the team. He was decent under Gailey because he hid him but he has serious issues with speed rushers. Wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with the Jets now that Gailey is on board
-C.Hairston: He's not a bad utility OL when he can stay healthy. I wouldn't be opposed to bringing him back but I would let him out on the market first and see if an upgrade can be found
-M.Easley: To me it's a no brainer to bring him back. He is clearly the best ST player on the roster. To let him get away would mean a down grade in that phase and for that alone I would bring him back
-L.Smith: I'm 50/50 on him. Decent ST'er and you could do a lot worse for a third string TE.
-J.Wynn: Solid depth and a good team player. I don't really see him being a fit in the new scheme however. I think he will be gone
-S.Sylvester: Gone, see no reason to bring him back
-L.Dean: Camp Fodder?
Looking at the Top 5
Positions of Need Heading into the Offseason
Looking at the Top 5 Positions of Need Heading into the Offseason
Mike Watkins
1.QB: This one is an obvious, the Bills currently have no QB on the roster that is even average let alone one that could be labeled the answer. EJ Manuel has a little bit going for him this offseason in that it looks like the Bills will be mimicking the things Florida State did to hide EJ Manuel. Strong defense, strong running game, and a passing game that limits reads and takes advantage of EJ's arm down the field from time to time.
Realistically the Bills have to bring someone else in. I don't expect that player to come from the draft unless one they have rated high falls right into their lap. So Free Agency looks to be the route, the obvious connection is Mark Sanchez. He is better than EJ but he cannot ever be considered the long term answer at the position. Whomever they pick is going to come in with clear flaws in their game, that's the reality with 99% of free agent QB's. You don't see teams let good QB's hit the market on a regular basis. You have to try and find one that has flaws that become workable in your system
2.OG: Another obvious one. I am firmly on the record stating that you don't pay big money or spend high draft picks on the position. That said, you cannot just leave the position completely void of talent and expect it not to be a disaster. That's exactly what it's been for two years now under Marrone. Now with Kromer and Roman in the fold I expect a focus on upgrading the position. There is some ok talent on the roster that could develop if coached up. Richardson was forced into action to early and I believe he and Kouandjio deserve a look after a year in an NFL weight training system. They however should not be looked upon or counted upon as the answer at this junction.
I expect the Bills to be aggressive in trying to plug this hole with both a Free Agent pick up and a draft pick. The obvious one is Iupati but I really like C.Boiling from the Bengals
3.TE: I am not in the group that seems to love to hate Chandler. I actually think Chandler is average to above average when it comes to starting TE's. If the Bills could find another player at the position to move Chandler to the number 2 TE then I think his value greatly increases. The Bills really just lack that safety valve TE than can find the soft spots in defenses and exploit it. Chandler is to up and down for that.
There happens to be some good free agent options at the moment. A few of them I imagine will get tagged so the list will get much shorter in terms of talent. The draft is average at the position so it will be interesting to see how the Bills tackle upgrading this spot if at all. I believe they will value pass blocking in the position with what Roman is trying to do, so that is something to keep an eye on
4.FS: Safety is a key position in Rex's defense. They are set with A.Williams manning one spot but the other is a little more open. Searcy played well and keeping him will be a cost based decision. I don't expect them to go all out trying to fill this but Rex's defense works at its highest level when he has a ball hawking centerfielder of a FS.
This position is very Meh in FA'cy and the draft. I wouldn't expect them to be really aggressive trying to upgrade here and may just go with trying to coach up the in house players.
5.DL: This one may come as a little surprise. The Bills have spent a lot of assets and time building up the DL into one of if not the best in the NFL. It has become their identity of sorts. I think the Bills would be wise to keep it that way by keeping the pipeline fresh with talent especially with Williams and Williams on the wrong side of 30. I believe in having a deep talented DL because it can make up for a lot of miscues of the back 7
I don't expect this to be that high of a priority but I would specifically look to the draft to keep this unit on top. The new defensive staff specializes in finding DL and coaching them up to elite status. The Bills would be wise to take advantage of that and keep this unit on top
The Dust has settled, My Thoughts on the Rex Ryan Hire
The Dust has settled, My Thoughts on the Rex Ryan Hire
Mike Watkins
The dust has started to settle a bit on the Rex Ryan hire. Rex wasn't my first choice but he wasn't my last choice either. From a personality standpoint he fits Buffalo and the general energy of the city. Fans and media alike will take to him rather quickly. Especially the media as he makes their job far easier because he is a quote machine at the podium.
In the media they have been 50/50 and as to critical or liking the hiring. Those whom like the hire state then when he had an elite defense and just average QB play he made it to two AFC title games. He is close to that formula right now. For a team in a very much win now mode, his structure and previous record fits what is trying to be done with the Bills right now.
Those whom are more critical of the move point to that Rex is a defensive coach and the Bills defense was fine so why not hire an offensive minded coach. Let me be clear about this, this is far and away the dumbest thing that gets said year in and year out during a coaching search. When looking for a head coach you should be looking for a leader of men and a coach who can identify coaching talent. That is what you are looking for. You should not be looking for a coach that is going to fix the deficiencies on one side of the ball. This is why I feel so many hires go bad in the NFL because of that exact line of thinking
I've been critical of Rex in the past because I think he was allowed to have too much say in the roster decisions. With the Jets from the moment he got there he began sinking the vast majority of the teams resources in building up that side of the ball. With good reason, it's the side he knows the best and could fix the fastest. Due to that however it left the offensive side baron of any talent. It also however left him a built in excuse, his defense was performing but his offense was not.
In Buffalo however that is not the case, unlike the Jets in his first year the defense is loaded and ready to go. As a bonus it's the same defense that they ran just two years ago and Schwartz kept most of the verbiage to make the transition to his defense faster. To revert back will move even faster than that. If the Bills bring Hughes back there is very little that has to be done. A possible tweak at the FS spot will likely happen given how critical that position is in Rex Defense. Outside of that, Rex Ryan could not have picked a better spot to run what he wants to do immediately.
Now what this affords Rex to do is focus the team's attention and assets to the offensive side of the ball. This is something that could rarely be done in New York because Rex had to keep the defense stocked. With no first round pick and a coach and a team in a very much win now mode you can expect the Bills to be active in free agency. Rex Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman I'm sure is making a wish list as we speak.
Speaking of Roman, I like the hiring for what Rex wants his football team to be. When the rumor started to circulate that Trestman was tied to Rex it didn't make too much sense to me. Trestman is more of a pass first finesse coach. Whereas Roman is more of the grind it out ball control coach. Roman fits Rex style and that is the first change and adjustment you will see from New York to Buffalo with Rex. You will see coaches that fit his style rather than trying to adjust his style to the OC.
With Roman Rex understands you can't beat Tom Brady by trying to out-Brady him. The last thing you want to do is get into a shootout with him because to put it bluntly your QB is not going to be as good as Brady. So to counter that keep the ball out of his hands by keeping Brady off the field. I fully expect that to be the game plan week in and week out, can't match your QB play so the Bills will limit your QB's opportunities.
I said in my coach search column that if the Bills were looking to hire a coach with experience that Rex Ryan would be the front runner. That came to fruition, and not because Atlanta stalled, but because the Pegulas and the Front Office could see the match from the coach to the city. It's a certain style and a temperament I believe was being searched for. That style is what I believe we will see and why the Pegulas felt Rex Ryan fits them, the city, and the team best at this moment. Rex is a blue collar guy in a blue collar city. A city that appreciates toughness and on the football field a tough physical team that can roll over you Sunday after Sunday. That is the vision I believe Rex and the Bills front office and ownership is looking for. Will it work? I think so, Rex is Buffalo as much as Buffalo is Rex
It's not the QB, it's that the Bills need a better….
It's not the QB, it's that the Bills need a better….
Mike Watkins
You can go ahead and fill in whatever you want there at the end of the title. It's been 15 years and inevitably a faction of Bills fans always find some other part of the franchise to blame other than the obvious issue. It can be from owner right on down to the training staff for injury issues. I've heard it all, the owner doesn't spend, he spends but not on the right guys, the coaches need to go, the GM needs to go, the defense is bad, the OL is bad, the WR are not good enough,….on and on.
Now, the QB problem is one that gets brought up but seems to evaporate to the litany of excuses stated above. This year it's the OL and the OC. This is the debate I have been having for the past decade and a half, first on message boards and then on Twitter. Fans of the Bills seem to convince themselves that if the OL play or the OC was better that they could get by with an average QB, or that somehow those two things combined would somehow raise the play of the QB. In both cases they are wrong and have been wrong
I've heard it all, they often point to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and now Aaron Rodgers and say they have great OL play. Problem is they fail to realize that none of them have had great OL play over the course of their careers. What they have though is an innate ability to get rid of the ball, be able to read a defense, and then make accurate correct throws. This will make any OL look far better than it actually is. Andrew Luck has arguably one of the worst OL's in the NFL yet where is his team going, the playoffs.
The Bills can go ahead spend and improve the OL all they want. You can give Orton and or Manuel all the time they need back there. Give the RB's better blocking up front but it will all be for naught if the QB position is not improved. Opposing defenses can and would much rather adjust to a good OL and running game then a good QB any day of the week and especially on Sundays
The same can be said about the OC. The OC is always only going to be as good as the QB talent he has. Chip Kelly learned that lesson this year. I've been saying for years Play calling is one of the most overrated thing in sports while execution is one of the most underrated. You can get any OC you want, if he doesn't have talent at the QB position with the ability to execute what he's calling it won't matter.
So once again we can come up with a million excuses, we can once again reference the Baltimore Ravens Trent Dilfer anomaly of a Super Bowl victory to give us some sense that there is a chance with out the most important position in all of sports left void of talent. The reality is this, the plight of this franchise will not change until the talent level of the QB position is raised. They do not have anything on the roster even resembling a player that could be the solution. The priority this offseason, next offseason and every offseason has to be finding that player at all and any cost. When that is solved you'll be shocked at how all those other roster and team issues seem to evaporate.
2015 Mock draft
1 BUCCANEERS Jameis Winston - QB - Florida St
2 TITANS Marcus Mariota - QB - Oregon
3 JAGUARS Dante Fowler - ER - Florida
4 RAIDERS Kevin White - WR - West Virginia
5 REDSKINS Leonard Williams - DL - USC
6 JETS Amari Cooper - WR - Alabama
7 BEARS DeVante Parker - WR - Louisville
8 FALCONS Vic Beasley - ER - Clemson
9 GIANTS Brandon Scherff - OL - Iowa
10 RAMS Lael Collins - OL - LSU
11 VIKINGS Todd Gurley - RB - Georgia
12 BROWNS Ereck Flowers - OL - Miami
13 SAINTS Bud Dupree - ER - Kentucky
14 DOLPHINS Trae Waynes - CB - Michigan St
15 49ERS Cameron Erving - OL - Florida St
16 TEXANS Arik Armstead - DL - Oregon
17 CHARGERS Melvin Gordon - RB - Wisconsin
18 CHIEFS DJ Humphries - OL - Florida
19 BROWNS Danny Shelton - DL - Washington
20 EAGLES Shane Ray - ER - Missouri
21 BENGALS Malcom Brown - DL - Texas
22 STEELERS Landon Collins - S - Alabama
23 LIONS Eric Rowe - CB - Utah
24 CARDINALS Randy Gregory - ER - Nebraska
25 PANTHERS Jalen Collins - CB - LSU
26 RAVENS Marcus Peters - CB - Washington
27 COWBOYS Damarious Randall - S - Arizona St
28 BRONCOS Andrus Peat - OL - Stanford
29 COLTS Eric Kendricks - ILB - UCLA
30 PACKERS Kevin Johnson - CB - Wake Forest
31 SAINTS Byron Jones - CB - Connecticut
32 PATRIOTS PJ Williams - CB - Florida St
2015 PFWR Big Board
PFWR Top 100
1. DT: Leonard Williams, USC
2. QB: Jameis Winston, Florida State
3. E: Donte Fowler, Florida
4. WR: Amari Cooper, Alabama
5. WR: Kevin White, West Virginia
6. IOL: Brandon Scherff, Iowa
7: RB: Todd Gurley, Georgia
8. QB: Marcus Mariota, Oregon
9: WR: Devante Parker, Louisville
10: E: Vic Beasley, Clemson
11: DT: Malcom Brown, Texas
12: OT: Ereck Flowers, Miami
13: DT: Eddie Goldman, Florida State
14: RB: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
15: IOL: Cameron Erving, Florida State
16: ER: Randy Gregory, Nebraska
17: CB: Trae Waynes, Michigan State
18: OT: Andrus Peat, Stanford
19: E: Arik Armstead, Oregon
20: E: Bud Dupree, Kentucky
21: CB: Marcus Peters, Washington
22: S: Landon Collins, Alabama
23: OT: DJ Humprhies, Florida
24: E: Shane Ray, Missouri
25: E: Eli Harold, Virginia
26: CB: Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
27: CB: Jalen Collins, LSU
28: WR: Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
29: DT: Danny Shelton, Washington
30: ILB: Eric Kendricks, UCLA
31: DT: Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma
32: WR: Nelson Agholor, USC
33: IOL: Laken Tomlinson, Duke
34: QB: Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
35: QB: Bryce Petty, Baylor
36: IOL: AJ Cann, South Carolina
37: OT: TJ Clemmings, Pittsburgh
38: CB: Eric Rowe, Utah
39: IOL: La'el Collins, LSU
40: S: Damarious Randall, Arizona State
41: CB: Byron Jones, UConn
42: ILB: Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State
43: E: Mario Edwards Jr, Florida State
44: TE: Maxx Williams, Minnesota
45: RB: Tevin Coleman, Indiana
46: WR: Devin Smith, Ohio State
47: IOL: Tre' Jackson, Florida State
48: E: Shaq Thompson, Washington
49: E: Owa Odighizuwa, UCLA
50: IOL: Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah
51: CB: Ronald Darby, Florida State
52: IOL: Mitch Morse, Missouri
53: OT: Jake Fisher, Oregon
54: IOL: Donovan Smith, Penn State
55: WR: Dorial Green- Beckham, Oklahoma
56: TE: Clive Walford, Miami
57: IOL: Ali Marpet, Hobart
58: WR: Phillip Dorsett, Miami
59: TE: Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
60: E: Jake Ryan, Michigan
61: ILB: Stephone Anthony, Clemson
62: WR: Sammie Coates, Auburn
63: RB: Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
64: DT: Michael Bennett, Ohio State
65: E: Danielle Hunter, LSU
66: WR: Breshard Perriman, UCF
67: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon
68: E: Preston Smith, Mississippi State
69: OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M
70: CB: Doran Grant, Ohio State
71: CB: Senquez Golson, Mississippi
72: CB: Quinten Rollins, Miami Ohio
73: ILB: P.J. Dawson, TCU
74: ILB: Denzel Perryman, Miami
75: WR: Tyler Lockett, Kansas State
76: WR: Devin Funchess, Michigan
77: E: Nate Orchard, Utah
78: S: Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
79: RB: Duke Johnson, Miami
80: OT: Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma
81: OT: Ty Sambrailo, Colorada State
82: RB: Jay Ajayi, Boise State
83: DT: Carl Davis, Iowa
84: DT: Grady Jarrett, Clemson
85: RB: David Johnson, Northern Iowa
86: CB: Josh Shaw, USC
87: S: Anthony Harris, Virginia
88: DT: Xavier Cooper, Washington
89: CB: P.J. Williams, Florida State
90: FS: Adrian Amos, Penn State
91: RB: T.J. Yeldon, Alabama
92: E: Trey Flowers, Arkansas
93: E: Za'Darius Smith, Kentucky
94: WR: Rashad Greene, Florida State
95: WR: Tre McBride, William & Mary
96: IOL: Hroniss Grasu, Oregon
97: IOL: Arie Koundjio, Alabama
98: QB: Sean Mannion, Oregon State
99: QB: Brett Hundley, UCLA
100: WR: Stefon Diggs, Maryland