text:
Interesting especially about the battery life. I don't tend to use the inbuilt memory on the camera I have now but I do see your point.
147 of 204 people found the following review helpful
Not bad.,
Verified Purchase(What is this?)
This review is from: Nikon D3100 Digital SLR Camera with 18-55mm VR Lens Kit (14.2MP) 3 inch LCD (Electronics)
The camera itself is quite good. Lots of options. Not heavy. Great camera for a beginner. However, battery is a big disappointment. It lasts for about 150 shots in auto mode. I was able to consume the whole power 10AM to 6PM the same day :( Really bad. Make sure you have a spare, charged battery in a pocket. Second disappointment was when I found that the camera has no built-in memory, so you cannot take a single picture if you forgot to purchase a SD card in a first place.
For the last seven years I was using simple point&shot camera with 7.2MPix and Carl Zeiss lenses which has built-in 1GB and I added extra 2GB card. The battery in this camera lasts for at least a week intensively using, so comparing D3100 with it you feel that you get a nice chassis but the gear inside does not work exactly as you would expect.
Also I was considering a better lenses with it. I regret I did not order it in a first place as well. 18-55 is not bad, but may not be enough.
Conclusion: If the battery would be better and the camera had at least 1GB built-in or pre-installed default SD it would be a great camera. But because especially of the very poor battery in my opinion D3100 is very overpriced for the entry level camera from the bottom shelf. You may be more happy with the simple, small point&shot, but... yes, it looks cool and it says Nikon and on a stripe ;)
I hope it will help you to make a right decision.
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Initial post: 11 Jul 2012 14:19:46 BDT
Last edited by the author on 11 Jul 2012 14:20:10 BDT
Amazon Customer says:
Interesting especially about the battery life. I don't tend to use the inbuilt memory on the camera I have now but I do see your point.
Posted on 3 Aug 2012 19:22:40 BDT
Mike Mac says:
I think you must have a faulty battery. Either that or it was incorrectly charged before first use. The battery on my D3100 is good for at least 4 or 5 days worth of holiday work i.e. multiple shots, sometimes 50 plus per day. Its almost as good as the battery on my D40X, which seems to go on forever. As for the SD card issue, I'm not interested in built-in memory as it simply pushes the price up for not many GB.
Posted on 13 Aug 2012 16:44:07 BDT
Steely says:
The performance of the standard battery on the Nikon D3100 appears to be very good. Used my Nikon D3100 at an indoor Olympic event a couple of days ago (no flash allowed). The battery outlasted the day, taking 1200 shots plus much reviewing of the photographs afterwards on the train home.
Posted on 1 Sep 2012 01:30:40 BDT
Last edited by the author on 1 Sep 2012 01:33:29 BDT
A. O. Shillingford says:
Actually for me it would be preferable for the camera NOT to have a built in card, as flash memory slowly degrades over time. However, an entry level memory card should have been supplied with the camera.
Posted on 9 Oct 2012 12:12:23 BDT
Mr. M. Fisher says:
Like other comments have said i'm sure you must have a faulty battery as i have found Nikon batteries to last anywhere from a few hundred shots to two thousand shots, The in camera memory, Why should you need it?. If you keep the camera in its case always keep a spare 1/2gb card, (under �5) its worthwhile than paying �100+ for a camera with the same built in memory, And i bet if you go out without your memory card once , you wont do it again..
Posted on 13 Oct 2012 09:22:51 BDT
Mr. R. C. Maytum says:
Anyone with any sense would carry a spare battery!
Posted on 13 Oct 2012 21:14:06 BDT
Last edited by the author on 13 Oct 2012 21:17:01 BDT
G�khan says:
When I saw the three stars, I read the comment carefully because I was expecting some unpleasant comments about the core- i.e. when one decides to go for DSLR main concern is more about the image quality and main optics. Battery life or memory is not really the primary concern. How do you find the image quality, quality of main optics, high iso imaging, noise level in the dark pictures etc?
Posted on 19 Oct 2012 21:13:48 BDT
Karen says:
Best you stick to point and shoot mate! The better stuff is wasted on you. Did you know that this was the best selling DSLR in Japan last year?
Posted on 11 Nov 2012 05:49:59 GMT
EricD says:
Maybe the short battery life is due to use of LiveView ?
It's a DSLR - look through the viewfinder instead !
Posted on 12 Nov 2012 20:36:01 GMT
Me says:
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Mighty Mouse Cartoon Production Background Group (Terrytoons, 1944-47).... (Total: 4 Items)
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Mighty Mouse Cartoon Production Background Group (Terrytoons, 1944-47). Mighty Mouse was Paul Terry's biggest star. Created by Izzy Klein, he was originally called Super Mouse but changed after seven cartoons when Terry learned of an earlier comic book Super Mouse (appearing in Coo Coo Comics). Here's a set of four original production backgrounds from the Golden Age of Mighty Mouse shorts, all from the 1940s. The oven in the basement is from Wolf Wolf; the ramshackle house in the snow is from First Snow; the courthouse exterior is from A Champion of Justice; and the ship's lower deck is from The Wreck of the Hesperus. All were directed by Manny Davis. Gouache on 3-top peghole cardboard; the first three are 13" x 9.75", the fourth is 14" x 11". All are in Fine condition.
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Grandmother's Kuchen
9 Jul 2009
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|1 Cup (16 tbs) (2 Sticks)
|Dry yeast
|2 Tablespoon (2 Envelopes)
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|3 , slightly beaten
|Lemon extract
|1 Teaspoon
|Almond extract
|2 Teaspoon
|Orange extract/Grated orange zest
|1 Teaspoon
|3⁄4 Cup (12 tbs)
|Chopped dates
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|Chopped walnuts/Chopped pecans
|1⁄2 Cup (8 tbs)
|6 Cup (96 tbs)
Combine the milk and margarine in a saucepan over low heat; heat until margarine is melted, stirring occasionally.
Stir the yeast into 1/2 cup warm water in a large bowl and let stand for 10 minutes.
Add the milk mixture, sugar, eggs, lemon extract, almond extract, orange extract, raisins, dates and walnuts to the yeast mixture and mix well.
Stir in enough flour to make a stiff dough.
Knead on a floured surface until smooth and elastic.
Place in a greased bowl, turning to coat the surface.
Let rise, covered, in a warm place until almost doubled in bulk.
Punch the dough down.
Shape into 2 loaves in 2 greased loaf pans.
Bake at 350 degrees for 40 to 45 minutes or until brown.
Frost with chocolate frosting if desired.
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Grandmother's Kuchen Recipe


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Abstract: Let be a domain of finite Lebesgue measure in and let be the symmetric -stable process killed upon exiting . Each element of the set of eigenvalues associated to , regarded as a function of , is right continuous. In addition, if is Lipschitz and bounded, then each is continuous in and the set of associated eigenfunctions is precompact.
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VIEWS: 88 PAGES: 8 CATEGORY: Business POSTED ON: 7/13/2011 Public Domain
Probability of Project Completion Samples document sample
ADVANCED QUANTITATIVE SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS DAVID T. HULETT, PH.D.1 HULETT & ASSOCIATES, LLC 1. INTRODUCTION Quantitative schedule risk analysis is becoming acknowledged by many project-oriented organizations as a way to improve project on-time performance. It is included in the international standard, the PMBOK® Guide [1]. By now many project managers and executives know that a good critical path method (CPM) schedule will not provide even the most likely completion date and may not indicate as critical the path the ultimately delays the project. 2. A ROBUST CPM SCHEDULE IS NECESSARY A robust schedule, one that computes the right critical path and completion date when durations change, is needed for computing CPM schedules as projects are progressed, and for computing schedule risk using Monte Carlo simulations. Many project managers do not examine their schedules with enough diligence. Project Managers (PMs) should look at the Total Float ("Slack") in the schedule, but I find that many do not. I have seen Total Float in weeks and months when the schedule is very tight, indicating a poor choice of successor or no successor at all. PMs should also look at the Critical Path and see if it makes sense. While the Critical Path may not be what you think it should be, it ought to be logical. Some schedules put the critical path through Level of Effort tasks or through paths that cannot be critical. The schedule logic should not include tasks with "open ends," (i.e. a task without successors) unless they are deliveries or the project completion milestone. Finally, use constraints sparingly. I remember a schedule with 570 tasks where only the last 3 tasks were critical – the scheduler had put them out there with a Start No Earlier Than constraint and nothing else mattered. With some simulation packages, constraints can confound the process and skew the results. In addition, there are problems with some logic that appears to be sound, Start-to-Start (S-S) or Finish-to-Finish (F-F) successor logic. Consider a S-S logical relationship. If the predecessor task's duration lengthens the successor task will not react because it is tied only to the predecessor's start date. In the picture below lengthening of "Design" should lengthen "Draft" since it is illogical for Draft to finish before Design. But this is not the result with the logic shown since Draft does not relate to the completion of Design, just to its Start An F-F relationship can be a potential problem as well. If it is in the future, the successor's starting date is determined by the predecessor's finish date (perhaps with a lag) and its duration. If, however, the successor might take longer, the schedule software shows it starting earlier, but that could be illogical. Illogical conclusions are shown below: Design Lengthen Design S-S F-F Draft ? ? Lengthen Draft S-S and F-F are convenient, but they may not "work" in a schedule and they certainly fail in a simulation. 3. PROJECT SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS – THE BASICS We all know that projects tend to overrun their scheduled completion date, even if there is no pressure to adopt an unreasonably short schedule at the beginning. We also know that the Critical Path (CP) changes through the project and may not be the CP we started with, even if we have good schedule logic. A PM who is told the wrong completion date and CP early in the project can hardly be held accountable for the results, unless of 1 David Hulett is President of Hulett & Associates, LLC, a Los Angeles-based project management consulting firm. He can be reached at (310) 476-7699, email@example.com, or www.projectrisk.com. 1 course the poor information was due to his or her lack of professionalism. Is there any way to improve on the quality of this information, giving the PM a better chance of success? Yes, and it is through diligent pursuit of schedule risk analysis. A schedule risk analysis can answer the key questions, which traditional CPM cannot address: (1) How likely am I to overrun my time objective? (2) How much time contingency do I need? (3) Where is the time risk the greatest in my project? Answering these questions early in the project can assist effective risk mitigation. In a risk analysis of the schedule, the logic is assumed to be correct and given. This assumption may be wrong on both fronts, since the logic may be flawed and the PM may change logic as circumstances dictate. However, schedule risk is associated with uncertainty in the work and hence the estimates of task durations. Activity duration risk is presented using the three-point estimates and probability distributions. The durations are represented by probability distributions such as the triangular and the Beta, shown below: It is important to place most of the emphasis and effort of a risk analysis on the issues associated with gathering the data. The credibility of the results depends on the care with which the data are collected and documented. Most people do not have experience providing three-point estimates of optimistic, most likely and pessimistic scenarios and linking them to the durations they imply. People will typically underestimate the risks (extreme scenarios) if they have not had experience in providing the data. Add to this that some people are motivated to bias the results, usually in the optimistic direction, and it becomes clear that collecting the data for a quantitative schedule risk analysis is a challenge. Additional data are important if more advanced risk analyses are considered. The likelihood of failing a test is often underestimated, and the notion of correlation between durations is particularly elusive for those coming to this discipline for the first time. The good news is that data gathering and providing can be learned and those motivated to bias the results can be weeded out of the interviews. 4. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION – BASIC RESULTS One Path Schedule We know how to tell when the project will complete in CPM – find the critical path and add up the number of days (including lags of course). This method works only if the project goes "according to plan." Most projects do not proceed according to the plan, however, in large part because there is uncertainty about how long the tasks will take. Since we do not know which durations each task will take, we have to examine all possible combinations from the three-point estimates specified during the interviews, respecting the shape of those distributions. Monte Carlo simulation is a "brute force" method and not at all sophisticated. An example follows. The simulation software used here is Risk+ [2] and the scheduling program is the popular Microsoft Project. ID Task Name Rept ID Min Rdur ML Rdur Max Rdur Curve 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 0 OnePath 2 0d 0d 0d 0 1 Start 0 0d 0d 0d 0 6/1 2 Design Code 0 20 d 30 d 50 d 2 6/30 3 Code S/W 0 80 d 100 d 160 d 2 10/8 4 Test S/W 0 30 d 40 d 75 d 2 11/17 5 Finish 0 0d 0d 0d 0 11/17 This schedule is supposed to finish on 11/17. There is nothing wrong with the (simple Finish-to-Start) logic, and the durations estimated are the Most Likely as shown in the ML Rdur (Remaining duration) column. Will it finish on 11/17? Is 11/17 even the most likely date for completion? Is it conservative? Simulating this schedule we see that 12/10 is a better most likely date and that 11/17 is only 10% likely to be sufficient to finish. 2 Date: 2/4/2003 6:01:34 PM Completion Std Deviation: 20.76 d Samples: 1000 95% Confidence Interval: 1.29 d Unique ID: 0 Each bar represents 10 d Name: OnePath 0.20 1.0 Completion Probability Table 0.18 0.9 Prob Date Prob Date Cumulative Probability 0.16 0.8 0.05 11/11 0.55 12/14 0.14 0.7 0.10 11/17 0.60 12/16 Frequency 0.12 0.6 0.15 11/21 0.65 12/19 0.10 0.5 0.20 11/24 0.70 12/23 0.08 0.4 0.25 11/28 0.75 12/26 0.06 0.3 0.30 11/30 0.80 12/31 0.35 12/3 0.85 1/4 0.04 0.2 0.40 12/5 0.90 1/9 0.02 0.1 0.45 12/8 0.95 1/17 10/26 12/13 2/20 0.50 12/12 1.00 2/20 Completion Date One Path Schedule Parallel Paths, Merge Points and the "Merge Bias" This is not the worst of things. Most projects contain parallel paths and those paths merge in the schedule, sometimes at crucial points such as Design Reviews, Integration for Test. The problem is that there is an extra risk at these points, called the "Merge Bias." We have known that something happens at merge points for about 40 years following the research of McCrimmon and Ryavek at Rand Corporation. [3] To explore this issue, consider the following schedule that has two extra paths that are identical to the first in all respects – tasks, logic, duration and risk range. CPM says that this schedule also finishes on 11/17, but what do you think? ID Task Name Rept ID Min Rdur ML Rdur Max Rdur Curve 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 0 Three Path Schedule 2 0d 0d 0d 0 1 Start 0 0d 0d 0d 0 6/1 2 Path One 0 0d 0d 0d 0 3 Design Code 0 20 d 30 d 50 d 2 6/30 4 Code S/W 0 80 d 100 d 160 d 2 10/8 5 Test S/W 0 30 d 40 d 75 d 2 11/17 6 Path Two 0 0d 0d 0d 0 10 Path Three 0 0d 0d 0d 0 14 Ready for Integration 0 0d 0d 0d 0 11/17 Simulating this schedule demonstrates the problem when any of the three merging paths can delay the project. In this case, 11/16 is the earliest of any of the 1,000 iterations and this schedule is (.1)3 likely to complete on time. Date: 2/4/2003 8:07:29 PM Completion Std Deviation: 16.55 d Samples: 1000 95% Confidence Interval: 1.03 d Unique ID: 0 Each bar represents 5 d Name: Three Path Schedule 0.14 1.0 Completion Probability Table 0.9 0.12 Prob Date Prob Date Cumulative Probability 0.8 0.05 12/4 0.55 1/1 0.10 0.7 0.10 12/9 0.60 1/4 Frequency 0.6 0.15 12/13 0.65 1/6 0.08 0.5 0.20 12/16 0.70 1/8 0.06 0.4 0.25 12/18 0.75 1/11 0.3 0.30 12/21 0.80 1/13 0.04 0.35 12/23 0.85 1/16 0.2 0.02 0.40 12/25 0.90 1/21 0.1 0.45 12/27 0.95 1/27 11/16 12/30 2/22 0.50 12/30 1.00 2/22 Completion Date A comparison of these two results shows the effect of the "merge bias" which is the rightward shift in the cumulative distribution in the chart below. 3 Effect of the Merge Bias on Schedule Risk 100% 80% One Cumulative % 60% Path Three 40% Path 20% 0% 10/6 11/25 1/14 3/4 Date Risk Criticality and the "Highest Risk Tasks" The project manager needs to know where the risk is in the project for further risk mitigation. The concept of "risk criticality" or the "highest risk path" is the probabilistic analog to the traditional critical path. It measures the percentage of time the task is on the critical path in the simulation by iteration. The chart below describes how a CPM critical path that is highly managed may not be the path most likely to delay the project. In this schedule Path 2 is the CPM critical path and therefore well managed (narrow ranges are estimated). It turns out that it is only 15% likely to delay the project. The PM should focus risk management attention now on Path Three (45% likely to delay the project) and Path One (41%). ID Task Name Rept ID Min Rdur ML Rdur Max Rdur Curve 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 0 Three Path Schedule 2 0d 0d 0d 0 1 Start 0 0d 0d 0d 0 6/1 2 Path One 0 0d 0d 0d 0 41 3 Design Code 0 19 d 29 d 49 d 2 41 4 Code S/W 0 85 d 100 d 150 d 2 41 5 Test S/W 0 32 d 40 d 70 d 2 41 6 Path Two 0 0d 0d 0d 0 15 7 Design Code 0 28 d 33 d 43 d 2 15 8 Code S/W 0 90 d 100 d 125 d 2 15 9 Test S/W 0 35 d 40 d 55 d 2 15 10 Path Three 0 0d 0d 0d 0 45 11 Design Code 0 17 d 27 d 47 d 2 45 12 Code S/W 0 80 d 100 d 160 d 2 45 13 Test S/W 0 30 d 40 d 75 d 2 45 14 Ready for Integration 0 0d 0d 0d 0 11/20 5. ADVANCED METHODS OF SCHEDULE RISK ANALYSIS Advanced methods available with quantitative schedule risk analysis include probabilistic branching, correlation and conditional branching. These methods help model some more likely risk factors such as the possibility of failure, the correlation of task durations and the presence of contingency plans. Probabilistic Branching or "What happens if we fail the test?" Probabilistic branching allows us to model the possibility of failing a test and having to fix the problem and retest. This is a common problem in many projects, including those attempting some technology for the first time. Usual schedules do not incorporate the possibility of failure, yet the tests are conducted precisely because they may fail. Dealing with schedules in a probabilistic way allows us to estimate the likelihood of failure and the impact on the schedule if the test is failed. Suppose there is a single path schedule with a system test. Without thinking of the probability of failure the simulation will indicate some risk. Modeling the possibility of failure involves inserting one or more tasks that represent the string of actions – diagnose, plan the fix, implement the fix and retest. The durations of these tasks are uncertain. The data supporting this model include the likelihood of failure and the (uncertain) duration of diagnose, plan, fix and retest. These data are collected, as are those of the three-point estimates, through intensive interviews. 4 In the schedule below, notice the two new tasks, Fail and FIXIT and Retest. They are not given any duration in the baseline but they have ranges in the risk analysis. Test S/W has two successors, Fail and FIXIT and Finish representing failure and success of the Test S/W respectively. We know that the first, Fail and FIXIT will be taken only some fraction of the time as represented by the probability if failure gathered in interviews of project personnel and others. Notice we have place the probability of failure at 30% for this exercise. ID Task Name Rept I Min Rdur ML Rdur Max Rdur Curve Branch Def Branch ID2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 1 Three Path Schedule 2 0d 0d 0d 0 2 Start 0 0d 0d 0d 0 6/1 3 Design Code 0 20 d 30 d 50 d 2 6/1 6/30 4 Code S/W 0 85 d 100 d 150 d 2 7/1 10/8 5 Test S/W 0 30 d 40 d 75 d 2 6:30,8:70 10/9 11/17 6 Fail and FIXIT 0 20 d 30 d 50 d 2 6 11/17 7 Retest 0 25 d 35 d 60 d 2 6 11/17 8 Finish 0 0d 0d 0d 0 11/17 The network diagram of this part of the schedule looks like this: The results have a characteristic bi-modal distribution representing the likelihoods of success and of failure of the test. If there are several tests or if the FIXIT task it short or very broad the second mode may be blurred. Date: 2/4/2003 8:59:07 PM Completion Std Deviation: 38.36 d Samples: 1000 95% Confidence Interval: 2.38 d Unique ID: 1 Each bar represents 10 d Name: Three Path Schedule 0.16 1.0 Completion Probability Table 0.9 0.14 Prob Date Prob Date Cumulative Probability 0.8 0.12 0.05 11/16 0.55 12/26 0.7 0.10 11/21 0.60 12/31 Frequency 0.10 0.6 0.15 11/25 0.65 1/8 0.08 0.5 0.20 11/29 0.70 1/17 0.4 0.25 12/2 0.75 2/1 0.06 0.3 0.30 12/5 0.80 2/10 0.04 0.35 12/9 0.85 2/22 0.2 0.02 0.40 12/12 0.90 3/2 0.1 0.45 12/16 0.95 3/12 10/28 1/1 4/27 0.50 12/20 1.00 4/27 Completion Date A comparison of the runs with and without the possibility of failing the test indicates the importance of including this risk in your analysis. The cumulative distribution or S-curve for the failure branch slopes dramatically after 70% as the failure possibility shows up. If there are several branches the "bend" in the S-curve shows up earlier, at the place of the sum of the failure probabilities. Even in this case, a conservative organization that chooses the 80th percentile will be vitally interested in a 70% likelihood of failure and may devise plans to make the system more robust to avoid it. 5 Impact of a Failure Branch on Schedule Risk 100% 80% No Cumulative % Branch 60% Failure 40% Branch 20% 0% 10/6 11/25 1/14 3/4 4/23 6/12 Date Correlation between Task Durations Correlation is often found between activity durations when activities are influenced by a common risk factor. Advanced risk analysis investigates correlation and allows the analyst to specify the degree of correlation between durations. The probability distribution of completion dates is wider with correlation, indicating that correlated durations provide the possibility for both greater overruns and greater underruns (correlation does not favor overruns or underruns). ID Task Name Rept I Min Rdu ML Rdu Max Rdu Curve Branch Def May June July August Septembe October 0 Correlation 2 0d 0d 0d 0 1 Start 0 0d 0d 0d 0 6/1 2 Design 0 22 d 30 d 48 d 2 3 Build 0 45 d 60 d 96 d 2 4 Validate 0 19 d 25 d 40 d 2 5 Commission 0 11 d 15 d 24 d 2 6 Finish 0 0d 0d 0d 0 10/8 We will simulate this schedule twice, first without correlation and then with a high (.9) degree of correlation between all possible combinations of tasks. The results are presented side-by-side below. Notice the Standard deviation for the one on the left without correlation is 12.9 days while the one on the right with correlation is 22.1 days. This is the extra risk provided by correlation. Also notice that the 5% -- 95% ranges are 10/4 – 11/14 without correlation and 9/21 – 12/2 with high correlation. Date: 2/4/2003 9:24:51 PM Completion Std Deviation: 12.93 d Date: 2/4/2003 9:55:44 PM Completion Std Deviation: 22.06 d Samples: 1000 95% Confidence Interval: 0.8 d Samples: 1000 95% Confidence Interval: 1.37 d Unique ID: 0 Each bar represents 4 d Unique ID: 0 Each bar represents 10 d Name: Correlation Name: Correlation 0.14 1.0 0.20 1.0 Completion Probability Table Completion Probability Table 0.9 0.18 0.9 Prob Date Prob Date Cumulative Probability 0.12 Prob Date Prob Date Cumulative Probability 0.8 0.16 0.8 0.05 10/4 0.55 10/24 0.05 9/21 0.55 10/24 0.10 0.7 0.14 0.7 0.10 9/27 0.60 10/27 0.10 10/7 0.60 10/26 Frequency Frequency 0.6 0.12 0.6 0.15 10/1 0.65 10/31 0.08 0.15 10/10 0.65 10/28 0.5 0.20 10/12 0.70 10/30 0.10 0.5 0.20 10/4 0.70 11/5 0.06 0.4 0.25 10/14 0.75 11/1 0.08 0.4 0.25 10/7 0.75 11/9 0.30 10/16 0.80 11/3 0.06 0.3 0.30 10/11 0.80 11/14 0.04 0.3 0.35 10/18 0.85 11/7 0.35 10/14 0.85 11/19 0.2 0.04 0.2 0.02 0.40 10/19 0.90 11/10 0.40 10/16 0.90 11/26 0.1 0.02 0.1 0.45 10/19 0.95 12/2 0.45 10/21 0.95 11/14 0.50 10/23 1.00 12/7 9/7 10/24 12/22 0.50 10/22 1.00 12/22 9/22 10/24 12/7 Completion Date Completion Date The difference that correlation can make on both the high range and the low range distribution tails is shown below. 6 Effect of Correlation on Schedule Risk 100% 80% No Cumulative % Correlation 60% High 40% Correlation 20% 0% 8/27 9/16 10/6 10/26 11/15 12/5 12/25 Date The normally understood approach to correlation is the Pearson product moment approach. I believe only one simulation product uses this method correlation and the others use Spearman rank order correlation. There is no clear relationship between the Spearman method and correlation as usually understood, Pearson. Conditional Branching – Modeling the Contingency Plan Conditional branching is a very powerful tool, useful in modeling many decisions including contingency planning, namely the rules for sticking with Plan A or going to Plan B. A contingency plan usually includes a "trigger" for its implementation, and the conditional statement is: "If A occurs, go to Plan B." We have a preferred technology (Alt. A) and an acceptable technology (Alt. B). Alt. A is new and therefore risky, and the customer does not want to commit to Alt. A if it jeopardizes the scheduled completion by too much. The schedule below indicates that both Alternatives A and B need to be designed. The trigger is whether the design of Alt. A extends beyond September 21. The conditional statement is that if Design Alt. A finishes after 9/21, shift to Build and Test Alt. B. ID Task Name Duration Start Finish 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 1 Project 300 d 6/1 3/26 2 Start 0d 6/1 6/1 6/1 3 Preferred Alt A 300 d 6/1 3/26 4 Design Alt. A 100 d 6/1 9/8 9/8 5 Build and Test Alt. A 200 d 9/9 3/26 3/26 6 Backup Alt. B 298 d 6/1 3/24 7 Design Alt. B 85 d 6/1 8/24 8/24 8 Build and Test Alt. B 185 d 9/22 3/24 3/24 9 Finish 0d 3/26 3/26 3/26 First we need to simulate the schedule without the conditional branch to see what the impact on time is without a contingency plan in reserve. To do this we just zero out Task 8, Build and Test Alt. B and perform a simulation as if there is no Alt. B present. Then we re-install the full Alt. B including its risk and the conditional statement and rerun the analysis. A comparison of the results is below. Effect of Contingency Plan B on Schedule Risk 100% 80% Cumulative % 60% No Branch 40% Branch 20% 0% 1/14 3/4 4/23 6/12 8/1 9/20 Date 7 Notice that with the Contingency Plan B available, the schedule is not as risky. However, there is a cost, namely that the less-preferred technology, Alt. B is chosen 67% of the time (as indicated by the risk criticality index). These results are shown below: ID Task Name Total Slack Critical % Critical 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 1 Project 0d Yes 100 100 2 Start 0d Yes 33 6/1 3 Preferred Alt A 0d Yes 33 33 4 Design Alt. A 0d Yes 33 33 5 Build and Test Alt. A 0d Yes 33 33 6 Backup Alt. B 2d No 67 67 7 Design Alt. B 30 d No 0 0 8 Build and Test Alt. B 2d No 67 67 9 Finish 0d Yes 100 3/26 The trade off between time and technology can be shown in a table. The tradeoff is clear. If the customer wants a different chance of Technology A, for instance a 50% chance, the date would be specified later Scenario Measure of Schedule Risk No Plan B Plan B @ 9/21 Mean Date 5/12 4/3 Probability 80% 6/10 4/12 Probability Using Alt. A 100% 33% 4. Summary Schedule risk analysis is a very useful way to forecast how the project may proceed and to identify where to place risk management resources. This paper has introduced the subject with two crucial ideas, that the schedule logic should be robust to duration changes and that the risk data is a crucial component of the analysis worthy of attention. After some simple schedule risk analysis results we focused on advanced and powerful schedule risk analysis tools of probabilistic branching, correlation and conditional branching. Project managers are becoming aware of the benefits of these approaches. REFERENCES 1. Project Management Institute, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge, 2000 ed., Chapter 11, p. 139 2. C/S Solutions, Inc., Risk+ User's Guide, 2002 3. MacCrimmon, K., and Ryavec, C., "An Analytical Study of the PERT Assumptions," in R. Archibald and R. Villoria, Network-Based Management Systems (PERT/CPM), New York, Wiley, 1967, Appendix C. 8
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The Ritz-CarltonRead MoreProperty Location With a stay at The Ritz-Carlton, Charlotte, you'll be centrally located in Charlotte, steps from Time Warner Cable Arena and Blumenthal Performing Arts Center. This 5-star hotel is within close proximity of Discovery Place and Bechtler Museum of Modern Art. Rooms Make yourself at home in one of the 146 air-conditioned rooms featuring iPod docking stations and flat-screen televisions. Your pillowtop bed comes with down comforters and Frette Italian sheets. Relax and take in city views from the privacy of your room. 42-inch high-definition televisions with premium TV channels provide entertainment, with wired and wireless Internet access available for a surcharge. Private bathrooms with separate bathtubs and showers feature double sinks and televisions. Rec, Spa, Premium Amenities Pamper yourself with a visit to the spa, which offers massages, body treatments, and facials. You can take advantage of recreational amenities such as a health club, an indoor pool, and a spa tub. Additional features include complimentary wireless Internet access, concierge services, and gift shops/newsstands. Getting to nearby attractions is a breeze with the complimentary area shuttle that operates within 2 mi. Dining Grab a bite to eat at the hotel's restaurant, which features a bar, or stay in and take advantage of 24-hour room service. At the end of the day, relax with your favorite drink at a bar/lounge. Business, Other Amenities Featured amenities include complimentary high-speed (wired) Internet access, a 24-hour business center, and limo/town car service. Event facilities at this hotel consist of conference/meeting rooms, small meeting rooms, and a ballroom. Limited parking (subject to charges) is available onsite.201 East Trade StreetCharlotte, NC US
Napper Tandy's Irish PubRead MoreThe glass is always half full at Napper Tandy's Irish Pub — this Irish bar pours a stiff drink. The menu at Napper Tandy's Irish Pub does not include any low-fat options, so come ready to indulge. Drinks are also on the menu here, so patrons can start the night off right. Bring the whole family to Napper Tandy's Irish Pub, where kiddos are welcomed with open arms. Don't miss the happy hour food and drink specials, where a great bargain is always in sight. A private room is available for reservation at Napper Tandy's Irish Pub for those nights when you take the whole gang out to celebrate. You can tote your laptop here to take advantage of the free wifi. Warm weather brings out Napper Tandy's Irish Pub's highly coveted patio seating. Live musical acts often perform, and guests take advantage of the spacious dance floor. Be prepared to raise your voice, though — the restaurant can get noisy. Bring your favorite furball along to Napper Tandy's Irish Pub — it has a dog-friendly policy and keeps its doors open to pooches. Weekend visitors to the restaurant are well advised to take advantage of the reservation system — crowds tend to pack the place on Fridays and Saturdays. No suit, no problem! The dress code at laid-back Napper Tandy's Irish Pub is ultra casual. For those in a hurry, the restaurant lets you take your meal or snack to go. Napper Tandy's Irish Pub can also cater your next party; call today for details. Sidle into a space on the street or park your vehicle in the adjacent lot. Prices at Napper Tandy's Irish Pub typically stay below the $30 mark, so you can afford to bring along a friend or a date. You can pay with Visa, Mastercard, Discover, American Express or any major credit card. Chow down on breakfast, lunch, or dinner fare at Napper Tandy's Irish Pub — they're open for all three meals.410 Glenwood Ave.Raleigh, NC US
Fishers GrilleRead MoreThe premier destination for amazing seafood and tasty burgers, Fishers Grille in Greensboro is one of the area's best-rated restaurants. It's a local favorite for customers that want great food. If you're planning ahead, people will probably tell you that later in the week (Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays) will be the best time to visit. It should be noted that business casual is the recommended attire. For those keeping an eye on their diet, the menu does feature healthy items and it's been tabbed as a nice option for both large groups and families with children. WiFi is available if you want to get some work done, and in addition to its convenient take-out offerings, the restaurant even provides catering for events around town. Or, if you're looking for the perfect spot to unwind after work, it's got a phenomenal happy hour and a pretty broad selection behind the bar. Located in the middle of town, making a trip to Fishers Grille is never a bad call. Visitors to the restaurant have access to a private lot nearby or can park on the street. Should you prefer to pedal over there, bicycle parking's also offered.608 N Elm StGreensboro, NC US
Ryan's RestaurantRead MoreOne of the best-rated steakhouses in Winston Salem, Ryan's Restaurant has a classy vibe with a fresh menu that features steak. It's a local favorite for visitors looking for exquisite service and terrific food. In addition to its outdoor seating, most patrons will be quick to share that the restaurant's also defined by its steak and seafood. According to most guests, business casual attire is recommended. Also, though it's a bit on the pricey side, the overall experience definitely justifies it. It's recommended that you should try the chilean sea bass, the oysters rockefeller, or the french onion soup, since all three will impress. For those who are interested, the robust menu does feature items that are gluten-free, low-fat, and vegetarian. WiFi is available if you want to get some work done, and in addition to its convenient take-out menu, the restaurant even provides catering for events around town. Or, if you just want to stop by for a beverage, the restaurant has a good selection at its bar. A highly-regarded spot for dinner, a trip to Ryan's is definitely worthwhile. Don't worry about trying to find a spot on the street, as visitors to the restaurant do have access to a private parking lot nearby.719 Coliseum DrWinston Salem, NC US
Alivia's Durham BistroRead MoreYour next meal awaits at Alivia's Durham Bistro in Durham. The menu at Alivia's Durham Bistro does not include any low-fat options, so come ready to indulge. The bar at Alivia's Durham Bistro is fully stocked, so pair your meal with a glass of wine or beer. Grab the kids when you head to Alivia's Durham Bistro — its family-oriented menu and ambience all perfect for the whole clan. Make those early evening hours happy ones and swing by for some discounted food and drink deals after work. Don't stay cooped up on a beautiful summer day! At Alivia's Durham Bistro, you can dine outdoors on their lovely patio. Surf the web from your tablet or laptop on Alivia's Durham Bistro's complimentary wifi. Alivia's Durham Bistro is a great location to host a group dinner. Alivia's Durham Bistro has live DJs spinning some evenings. It tends to get especially busy on weekends, so be sure to call ahead and make a reservation. For those in a hurry, the restaurant lets you take your meal or snack to go. It's time to gather up the party people. Serve them great food from Alivia's Durham Bistro. Street and lot parking is simple near Alivia's Durham Bistro. Cyclists will also appreciate the plentiful space to lock up their bikes outside the restaurant. No matter what you choose off the menu at Alivia's Durham Bistro, you won't completely break the bank with prices averaging around $30. At Alivia's Durham Bistro, you have the option of paying by major credit card. Stop by for three square meals a day — Alivia's Durham Bistro serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner.900 W Main StDurham, NC US
The Wing CompanyRead MoreCustomers won't find any heat lamps within The Wing Co.'s kitchen, but that doesn't mean their made-to-order wings aren't hot. Instead, the increased temperatures come from nine sauces, which run the gamut from sweet chili to Cajun to teriyaki. However, the cooks aren't content to just spread sauce on wings. Upon customer request, they can also splash the tasty liquids over salads, riblets, and sandwiches—including their signature wing burger. Matching the wings' heat is the dining room's firefighter-themed decor. Hardhats and helmets double as lampshades, while firefighter boots, tanks, and clothing hang from the walls, in case of an emergency costume party.1047 Murchison RoadFayetteville, NC US


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South Carolina Tax Workshops, Meetings and Seminars
If you live near a state line, please look for tax workshops, meetings and seminars in nearby cities of the bordering state.
Entrepreneurial Readiness
In-Business Tax Workshop
IRS Workshop for New and Start-Up Businesses
Small Business Tax Workshop
Entrepreneurial Readiness
Starting a business is an exciting proposition, but it's also an incredibly challenging undertaking. The Entrepreneurial Readiness Workshop will help you learn about what it takes to start a business. In this workshop, you will evaluate your skills as an entrepreneur by discussing common traits of successful entrepreneurs and learning what lenders are looking for. This is an opportunity for potential business owners and current business owners. After attending this program, you can set up an appointment with a business counselor to discuss the specifics of your business and a plan of action. IRS is providing materials for the workshop.
Registration: Visit the C4W Registration website. Questions: Call Courtney Young at 803-216-5605; Cost: $25
Sponsored By: SC Women's Business Center
Date: July 7; August 4, 2015
Time: 9:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.
Location: Columbia College, Breed Leadership Center, Conference Room, 1301 Columbia College Drive, Columbia, SC 29203
In-Business Tax Workshop
This In-Business Tax Workshop will concentrate on topics
specific to help the entrepreneur who has started their business and is looking for a refresher or help to understand the following topics:
- What you need to know about federal taxes when hiring employees/contractors
- Employee vs. independent contractor
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- File Forms W-2 online/FIRE system
- How to Manage Your Payroll
- Wages subject to employment taxes
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- How to make tax deposits and file a return to report your payroll taxes
IRS Stakeholder Liaison is providing small business materials to an instructor who is qualified to practice before the IRS. Class participation along with Q&A may take the class longer. This workshop does not award Continuing Professional Education credit and is not intended for tax professionals.
NOTE: The class may be cancelled due to bad weather or insufficient attendance to conduct the workshop. Parking is available on site.
Sponsored By: Aiken Area Small Business Development Center at USC
Date: September 2, 2015
Time: 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Location: USC Aiken SBDC, Penland Building #903, 471 University Parkway, Aiken, SC 29801
Registration: . Pre-registration is required. Please call 803-641-3646 to register or email firstname.lastname@example.com.
IRS Workshop for New and Start-Up Businesses
This is a FREE workshop, sponsored by the IRS. Sign-in will begin at 8:30 a.m. and the workshop will begin promptly at 9:00 a.m. You will learn about and discuss:
- Federal taxes when hiring employees/contractors
- Payroll management so you withhold the right amount from employees
- Federal Unemployment Taxes (FUTA)
Date: October 19, 2015
Time: 8:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
Location: Winthrop Region SBDC, 118 Thurmond Building, Room 415, Memorial Circle and Park Avenue, Rock Hill, SC 29733
Registration: Visit the Winthrop Region Small Business Development Center or call 803-323-2283.
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Topics include:
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IRS Stakeholder Liaison is providing small business materials to an instructor who is qualified to practice before the IRS. South Carolina Department of Revenue and South Carolina Department of Employment and Workforce will present state tax topics.
NOTE: Workshops may be cancelled due to insufficient registration or poor weather. This workshop does not award continuing professional education credit
Date: September 16, 2015
Time: 9:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Location: Spartanburg Community College, Tyger River Campus, 1875 E Main Street, Duncan, SC 29334
Registration: Call 864-592-6318 or email firstname.lastname@example.com. Parking is free.
Sponsored By: Spartanburg Area Small Business Development Center
Date: September 3; November 19, 2015
Time: 9:00 a.m. - 3:00 p.m.
Location: Greenville Area SBDC, Clemson University, 1 North Main Street, Greenville, SC 29601
Registration: Visit the Clemson Regional SBDC website or call 864-370-1545 for online registration. This workshop has a $10 fee to cover parking and light refreshments.
Sponsored By: Greenville Area Small Business Development Center
Date: July 17; October 23, 2015
Time: 9:00 a.m. - 2:00 p.m.
Location: First Federal Corporate Complex, Saint Leo University, North Charleston Education Center, 2430 Mall Drive #185, North Charleston, SC 29406
Registration: Call 843-740-6160. Free parking available.
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text: Road Trippin': Perspectives at the Pump June 30, 2008 Our week-long series, Road Trippin', is focused on the causes and impact of rising gas prices. On the air, Farai Chideya speaks with a psychologist, a taxi driver, and a car dealership owner to get their firsthand accounts. On our blog, we get insight from drivers at a local gas station. Listen Loading… Playlist Download Embed Embed Close embed modal <iframe src="http://www.npr.org/player/embed/92033452/92033444" width="100%" height="290" frameborder="0" scrolling="no">


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So the NYT's Nate Silver pretty much schooled America with a play-by-play of the presidential election before it happened?
So after making all the talking heads look like fools, he has something like a 99 percent success rate over two elections?
Hmm … there might actually be something to this "math" theory after all, eh?
Perhaps this is the time to start taking a gander at the more analytical rating systems in college basketball, too, and just how they view the Gophers.
First, a reminder of where the Gophers stand in the two most commonly used polls:
AP Top 25: Not ranked; received 40 votes
USA Today Coaches Poll: Not ranked; received 9 votes
In the media basics, the Gophers have been mostly forgotten, with a couple exceptions:
Athlon: Not ranked
Lindys: No. 31
ESPN: Not ranked
SI: Not ranked
CBS Sports: No. 22
Now, let's look at the "other" rating systems. Ken Pomeroy's tempo-free analytics have long held a niche in the basketball community and has had a steady following of basketball nerds -- er, fans. His system uses a complex calculation of different factors including who the team has beaten and how it has beaten them and who it has lost to and how it has lost.
This year, RealGM's Dan Hanner has also released his own new projection system for Basketball Prospectus that looks at historical data inputs and, like the Ken Pom rankings, uses the Pythagorean formula to calculate a number of different factors. There's a 16-step process that projects playing time, individual performances, possession distribution and calculates adjusted offense and defense.
So. Much. Math.
I won't get into all the details because I don't want to bore or confuse you guys (I totally understand it, though; seriously, it's not over my head at all).
But hey, after Nate Silver, should we all be doing this?
This is how those two systems view the Gophers:
Ken Pom: No. 26
Dan Hanner: No. 23
Interesting, too, that Hanner has Wisconsin at 33 (!) Michigan at 44 (!!)
Hm … suddenly more intrigued? (Even if only for use in debates with your buddies?)
The thing with these ratings – and any ratings – is that right now, we're at the beginning of "election" season. Candidates are still warming up and you never know who is going to surprise you with something stats never could have suggested or how they are going to shoot themselves in the foot (or fail to shoot effectively at the basket).
And generally, even predicting a game in sports is not the same as predicting an election based on polling data, as this interesting blog on Big Lead Sports noted.
We don't have as much information now as we need to REALLY know what will happen.
Of course, that's the beauty of basketball, right? You can pore through the statistics and read all the analysis and come armed with numbers (and yes, that part is fun too), but in the end, you have to just watch the game.
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Home of the Ancestors
... and a huge range of lego sets on sale. I could have spent all day there and brought a lot more than I did but unfortunately space there is not a lot of spare room in the suitcase. I did buy my first souvenir of the trip, a set from the final Hobbit movie.
Enjoyed looking through a lot of the shops including the Disney shop and another souvenir shop where I continued my purchases.
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Another day in Copenhagen
... canal waterfront street that has become a very popular and touristy restaurant and bar area. Images of this area are often associated with Danish tourism. And today it was very popular, with crowds of Danish people finally able to sit in the sun after the long winter. It was not ...
Fishing village, visitors, and castles
... in burned down most of the castle so it's been restored to looks as it did during King Christian IV reign. A wing of the house is dedicated to the King's Chapel, which was where all the king's coordination's occurred in additional to royal wedding. Today, weddings and Sunday mass take place in this chapel. The chapel was one of the few parts of the massive castle that was saved from the fire so all is original. The organ above the alter is made of a variety ...
Pride and Rain
... traffic. It all seemed very strange for a Saturday afternoon. We finally hit the city itself, but traffic only worsened. We inched along as I anxiously saw that the GPS was having us turn at the next light. As that light turned yellow, I quickly turned onto a major cross street and was immediately struck by the sight of hundreds of people lining the sidewalks. K said there must have been an accident, and asked me to look in ...
Day3 in Copenhagen need to chill till 2am wtf
... Christians Then we tried to ride our bike as far as possible and we saw a cruise Mius ate something and I started to be hungry Backed to Burger King and grabbed one cheeseburger because I realise I'm hungry To the supermarket for the food and drinks for overnight train and dinner Watched two matcha and then waited until 12 and we headed to the station Ripped ...


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10" x 9" Solid Color Fans. Packed in a poly bag of 1 dozen pieces in assorted colors.Please order in increments of 1 dozen pieces.
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delivery was very fast, good value for the price, was used at a outdoor party.
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I purchased over two hundred of these fans to be used as promo gifts to all the local members of the organization I belong to. I liked the idea of giving out something useful, since the location for our convention tends to be rather warm during the summer. The fans are packed 12 to box.Each box was opened so I could inspect one or two from each box. The first box contained 3 fans that came apart w
(Posted on 4/3/13)
- 10'' x 9'' Solid Color Fans Review by worker bee
I used the fans in the classroom to celebrate the Chinese New Year. Next, students were rewarded with their own fan for reaching class behavior goals.
(Posted on 2/17/13)
- A Big Fan for the Money Review by Serendipity
Perfect for an outdoor event in the mid-South. A fan was placed beside each place setting just in case the evening was too hot and humid. It was a great hit.
(Posted on 8/25/12)
- great for the value Review by red on the head
i bought these to sell at a summer fundraiser. i remember having these as a kid so i knew the kids at my event would love them as well as being functional for my adult guests as well.
(Posted on 8/24/12)
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Minnie Mouse Birthday Party Ideas
Her birthday party will be a huge hit with a Minnie Mouse theme! Use these decorating ideas to help your put together the most adorable Minnie Mouse party.
1950s Sock Hop Party Ideas
Invite friends over for a rockin' good time when you throw a fifties theme party! Use these party tips to assist you in putting together the best sock hop anyone's ever seen.
Throw a Beach Party with these Helpful Beach Party Ideas
Plan a get-together on the beach, or throw a beach-themed bash in your home, using these fun beach party tips!


text: Videos Published On: Jul 06 2012 04:51:16 PM EDT Updated On: Feb 19 2013 05:06:12 PM EST Judge recognizes suspect in court from middle school Candles turn into teaching tool for people with special needs Courtroom school reunion between judge, suspect New evidence shows baby flamingos were stolen from Hialeah Park 4th of July preparations underway in South Fla. Fort Lauderdale police search for accused murderer, sex offender Terrorism warning issued to authorities ahead of holiday weekend Police say voodoo priest victims believed he had power to curse them Miami Beach bank robber killed by police identified What's next for Cuba following embassy openings? SWAT team shoots, kills alleged Miami Beach bank robber Technology use affects children's speech development, researchers say Firefighters monitor controlled brush fires in West Broward Do miracles happen at Miami mega church? Giving your pets a happy, safe holiday weekend Woman crashes into home after returning from shopping Disappearance of baby flamingos investigated as crime Man dies in hospital after BSO deputies pull him from burning car Researchers say outdoor walks are good for brain At least 1 injured after car catches fire in Oakland Park crash Firefighters called in to battle 3 west Broward County brush fires Barricaded man suspected in bank robbery shot, killed Man says he was sleeping when fire broke out at home MasterCard looking to add a security feature with a selfie South Floridians celebrate the Fourth of July early NBA waits for LeBron's decision, Wade spotted in Vegas Popular Trinidad street food in Miami 3 brush fires burning in western Broward County Mom of Marine ordered to Mexican jail back in South Fla. Miami-Dade elementary, middle schools improve grades View More


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Apr 7
Jul 29
Our first gig out of state, come out and represent!
Apr 22
Fundraiser/charity event for Autism Awareness
Apr 17
Show will take place at Independence Mall on 5th and Market. All Nation gets on at 6:25PM
Apr 15
All The Points go on at 9pm. Show starts at 7pm
Bio: In the spring of 2010, four local musicians came together with one goal in mind. To create great music and the result of that creation became the birth of All The Points. An original rock band from Philadelphia and the Tri-state area. This group of talented young musicians are looking forward to ...See Full Bio
All the Points has a show on 04/07/2013 at 05:00 PM @ The Fire in Philadelphia, PA http://www.reverbnation.com/c./poni/191200794 #concert


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Why did you choose this product?
I take this 2 to 3 times a week to the swimming pool with my towels, etc., in it. I have absolutely no complaints. It is a great tote....
Hercules Wheeled Shopping Tote
Shop all day without straining your back or shoulders by letting this colorful rolling shopping tote carry your purchases. The tote has a zipper closure, a water bottle pocket, and a handle for lifting, if you tire of rolling it along.
ITEM#: 15133391This colorful tote features a handle with inline skate wheels for easy portability. The bag sports a closure zipper as well as a side mesh pocket for a water bottle.
- Materials: 600D polyester
- Color: Multi-dots, green dots
- Weight: 3 pounds
- Side mesh pocket
- Carrying handle: Yes
- Comfortable handle grip
- Strap: No
- Wheeled: Yes
- Wheel type: Recessed metal ball bearing inline skate wheels
- Closure: Zipper
- Locks/keys included: No
- Interior dimensions of each piece: 19.5 inches high x 13.5 inches wide x 7.5 inches deep
- Exterior dimensions of each piece: 20 inches high x 14 inches wide x 8 inches deep
|Fashion Rolling Zippered
|Polka Dot
|Brown Green Multi
|See Description
|2 year Manufacturer
|See Description
|Model Number
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Great tote.
I take this 2 to 3 times a week to the swimming pool with my towels, etc., in it. I have absolutely no complaints. It is a great tote.Read More
Great purchase! Rolls smoothly, loads easily...no complaints!Read More
Judy Palmer
This shopping is great for traveling and a steal for the money. So glad that I got it.Read More
Use this daily.
I am an older person and I use this to bring shopping to my condo as well as using it to tote garbage bags to the trash room. It has saved me much lifting and carrying and is a generous size. Great product!Read More
The tote was just perfect
The Hercules tote was given as a birthday gift to a elderly friend that has challenges carrying items. This tote is perfect for her. I handle stays lock and the wheels so far roll without any problems. She loves it! Call to say that when she went grocery shopping she was able to place all the items in the bag having to make only one trip from the car into the house. She keeps it in her car just in case she stop on spare of the moment trips out. She also uses the cart for other things as well. She indicated that the tote keeps pressure off her shoulders which sometimes give her pain. She is so pleased with the tote that she indicated that she will take it with her on a future trip. The bag appears to be well made and the color is vibrant . Very attractive. However, I did fine a similar bag by the same company at a local retail store for less for myself. I am very happy with my tote as well. Many elderly persons has asked where did I purchase the tote from.Read More
Questions & Answers
I enjoy walking and my store is in walking distance. I am not a big fan or carrying all my things though.
I'm beginning to have difficulty bringing groceries uphill and upstairs to condo. Am hoping this will help solve problem.
How much weight can this bag hold and is it collaspible.
Thank you for contacting us jules657. This bag is not collapsible and can hold up to 25 pounds. Please let us know if you have any further questions.
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Kenneth Massey
Original recipe yields 14 servings
Amount per serving ({{servings}} total)
Based on a 2,000 calorie diet
I send in breakfast goodies on the weekends that my husband works and this was today's fare. I changed the recipe to make it a little more "breakfasty" and the staff said this might have been t...
Sometimes called "Gooey Butter Cake". It is really sweet, so skip this if you don't care for sweet desserts. But it wasn't as heavy as I thought it might be considering the ingredients. It also ...
Ok, these are great tasting bars! I did cut back on the powdered sugar like the other reviews said, to about 2 1/4 cups, and added 2 Tbls of lemon juice, the fam loved them!


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Whilst the hotel was clean, quiet and pleasantly smoke free, it was a little far from sanlitun and dongzhimen. Ideal for those wanting to visit the Australian or Canadian embassy. Staff were pleasant and helpful, would suggest hotel for people who have some Chinese language. There were plenty of this going past hotel.
Top-rated Attractions Nearby
Top-rated Restaurants Nearby


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'12 Monkeys' Renewed By Syfy With Terry Matalas & Travis Fickett As ...
She is segueing to that, with Terry Matalas and Travis Fickett, who wrote the 12 Monkeys adaptation and served as co-executive producers on Season 1, named executive producers and showrunners. They are expected to bring in a strong No.2.
and more »
Guillermo Del Toro & Travis Beacham's 'Carnival Row' Eyes Series Order At ...
Amazon Studios has inked a large development deal for Carnival Row, a TV series version of Travis Beacham's cult supernatural feature spec script A Killing on Carnival Row, which has Guillermo del Toro co-writing, executive producing and directing.
and more »
Fox Gives 13-Episode Series Order To Ancient Egypt Drama 'Hieroglyph' From ...
A day after 6-year-old pilot Babylon Fields came back to life with a pilot order at NBC, another old drama project is making a comeback. During the 2011-12 development season, Travis Beacham's fantastical action-adventure spec Hieroglyph narrowly ...
and more »
Lifetime's Jodi Arias Movie Casts Tania Raymonde As Arias, Jesse Lee Soffer As ...
I can't wait for the Murder Jodie arias not Travis (Carrie) to get sentenced I swear I can't stand that this woman has any supporters they obviously don't watch the trial and SEE the evidence against her and if by chance she gets a lesser charge ...
and more »
Donnie Ray, Jeannie Holliday, Nellie "Tiger" Travis, Joe Barr, Sydney Joe ...
Chicago Reader
Milwaukee singer Jeannie Holliday has a supple voice with an impressive range—her melismatic flurries, falsetto cries, and deep-alto descents sometimes make her sound like a pop or neosoul artist, but her emotional honesty and blunt, sometimes ...
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text:
Chief Dotson Fields Questions on Drones, Civilian Review in Twitter Town Hall
St. Louis Police Chief Sam Dotson said he enjoyed the lively conversation he had with residents this afternoon via Twitter.
St. Louis Police Looking Into Using Drones
The St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is pushing forward with a drone surveillance program.
Missouri Journalism School to Seek Drone Permit
The federal agency has ordered the university as well as the University of Nebraska-Lincoln to stop flying the drones outdoors until they obtain government authorization.
FAA Grounds Midwest Journalism School Drones
Researchers at the University of Missouri in Columbia and the University of Nebraska in Lincoln were testing the flying robots as aerial photographers and video recorders from difficult-to-reach news scenes.
McCaskill: NSA Collecting Less Data Than Facebook, Amazon
In some ways, NSA is collecting less data on many Americans than Facebook and Amazon."
Ill. Senate OKs Bill to Regulate Use of Drones
Democratic Sen. Daniel Biss of Evanston is the sponsor of the bill. Biss says his proposal will help maintain people's reasonable expectation of privacy.
Illinois Lawmakers Consider Controls on Drones
At the start of what could be a new era in police surveillance, an Illinois legislator is proposing a limit on how law enforcement agencies can use drones.
Ill. Law Would Restrict Police Use of Drones
Sen. Daniel Bliss says law enforcement would need a search warrant to use the technology, under his bill.
Missouri House Endorses Ban On Drones, Critics Say It Goes Too Far
As drone technology becomes more accessible to the public, several industries have found practical uses for the unmanned aircrafts.
Mizzou Journalism Students Learn 'Drones 101′
Assistant Professor Bill Allen, who's teaching the course, said there are several practical uses for drones in journalism.


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The criminal intent here is debatable, but the damage is not.
Teenagers have more free time during the summer, which often gives them the opportunity to reconnect with their friends.
Local 4 has confirmed that a Dearborn Heights off-duty police officer is one of two men who were found dead Friday in a garage in Dearborn Heights. Sources say that drug paraphernalia was found at the scene.
"We think the gentleman may just be unsure as to where to turn the items in or may have been unsuccessful in attempting to contact the owner," said Chief Ronald Haddad.
Henry Ford denied wrongdoing but settled the lawsuit solely for "business reasons."
Police said a man shot his estranged wife Sunday morning before shooting himself.
A 17-year-old has been charged in connection with the kidnapping and carjacking of a Dearborn woman last week.
Dearborn police have released pictures of a gunman who robbed a diner early Sunday morning.
Police say the woman was approached by the unknown man about 9:30 p.m. Tuesday.
A Westland man has been arrested after what police say was a two-night crime spree.
The 87-year-old man was driving his car in the right lane of eastbound I-94 near Michigan Avenue when he attempted to change lanes and struck the right front end of the tanker truck.
The student told police an unknown man appoached her about 2 p.m. Monday along Book Return Drive between the Institute of Advanced Vehicle Systems and the northeast corner of Mardigian Library.
It just so happened another off-duty officer saw the traffic stop.
The city of Warren is known for enforcing strict rules with regard to fireworks. Mayor Jim Fouts took to the streets Saturday night to make sure everyone follows the rules.


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Dean Underwood Selected for CCCU Steering Committee
Dr. Anita Underwood, appointed dean of the School of Business and Leadership in August 2008, was recently invited to join the steering committee of the Council for Christian Colleges & Universities (CCCU) Research Center in Adult Learning. The new center, developed to study adult learning, is a joint venture the CCCU shares with host institution, Indiana Wesleyan University (IWU) in Marion, IN.
For a two-year term, Dr. Underwood will be a part of a 10-15 member steering committee that convenes biannually in conjunction with an annual conference on adult education. Responsibilities of the committee include soliciting research proposals from CCCU member institutions as well as establishing and prioritizing a research agenda and assessment tools for the research. Committee members will also identify and recommend research fellows, who will reflect the denominational makeup of the CCCU and represent a wide spectrum of academic disciplines.
Dr. Underwood's nomination was reviewed and accepted by the CCCU and university leaders. She was notified of her selection by Dr. Cynthia Tweedell, Executive Director, CCCU Center for Research in Adult Learning.
The Nyack College community proudly congratulates Dr. Underwood for another outstanding accomplishment.
Recent Posts
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- Nyack.edu Redesign Debuts
- JULY 11: Hope to See You in Central Park!
- Nyack's School of Nursing Dean, Dr. Elizabeth Simon Named a Fulbright Scholar
- Is Nyack For You? Are You for Nyack?
- Miriam Airoldi: Helping Others Find Dignity and Worth
- New Online! Master of Arts in Biblical Studies at ATS
- Into All the World!
- Social Work Degree Guide Names Nyack College to Its Top 25
- Nyack Clergy Association Hosts a Memorial Service for Charleston Nine
- Nyack's Moseley Field Turns Heliport for New York's Governor
- Nyack Softball Players Make CACC All-Academic Team
- Nyack College Students in National Masterworks Festival Chorus at Carnegie Hall
- New Major at Nyack: BA in Philosophy and Religious Studies
- Charles Galbreath, a 2015 C&MA Council Speaker
- Rock-o-Nomix Team: You Voted! They Won!
- New York City Fish Count
- 2015 Empower Ceremony
- 2015 Hudson River Pianofest at Nyack College Rockland
- Nyack ATS Commencement 2015
- Bench Dedication Procession to Memorial Park Led by Nyack College Music Students
- A Rite of Passage to Womanhood for 25 Nyack Seniors
- ACL Student Research Award Winner
- New Beta Psi Chapter of Chi Alpha Epsilon Honor Society Members Inducted
- Nyack College/Alliance Theological Seminary 2015 Commencement
- Browse Blog Archive>>
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Thank you. If a matching email exists we will send you an email in a few minutes with instructions on how to reset your password.
Don't forget to check your spam folder if you cannot find the email. For further assistance please contact us at email@example.com .Okay
Here, rectangular capiz shells are dyed in multiple colors and inlaid in a random pattern, making each of these trays unique.


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Welcome to Clever Cloggs Day Nursery
Clever Cloggs Day Nursery is situated in Little Canfield, Takeley on the New Priors Green Development.
We cater for children aged 0 - 11 years.
The nursery is purpose built and has a large enclosed garden with soft safety flooring and a seperate garden for babies.
Ofsted Report 2014 please click here


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I am thoroughly pleased with my recent order! The oil paint sticks are fabulous and fun to work with. The double ended markers are great as well. The order was received in a timely manner.
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33 year old man | Belmont Shore, CA, USA | Seeking women 25-35 within 50 miles of Long Beach, CA
Free Shipping!!
I'm an extremely motivated and career oriented man. At this point in my life I am focused on building the best possible future for me and my family. I have a solid career which i enjoy, and I'm on a path of advancement. I am currently attending Grad School to help fascilitate my career growth and education. My time is a little tight right now with work and school commitments, but I'm looking for a partner who is understanding and would enjoy being apart of the social aspects of work and school with me. Beyond my career and life goals, I am a fun loving and compassionate person. I laugh too much. I really love my family, though I probably don't tell them enough. I try not to take life too seriously, always give people the benefit of the doubt, and have faith that things generally work out for the best (with some effort). I also believe it is important to make time to enjoy joy life and appreciate everything we have. I'm lucky to have great friends and family who support me, and I want to make sure they know it. I enjoy success more when my friends and family are apart of it too. I also do my best to take care of my mind, body and spirit... reading good books, eating well, and exercising. I think good food and exercise are essential to a happy healthy life. I really like to cook tasty and delicious food, even though I am not great at it. :) I would like to meet some one who would enjoy making a good dinner and having a bottle of wine together. exercise is also important to me. I don't work out every day, but I wish I could. I take advantage of every opportunity to be active especially outside even if it's something simple like a walk or hike . I enjoy walking on the beach any time if the day or night. My ideal match is honest, open minded, and outgoing. Open communication and a good sense of humor is a must. I would also like to meet someone grounded with a sense of purpose. I respect passion and commitment to something you really believe in, which could be anything - art, fashion, politics, charity, business...
Book club , Business networking , Cooking , Dining out , Movies/Videos , Music and concerts , Exploring new areas , Political interests , Travel/Sightseeing , Volunteering , Watching sports , Wine tasting
Auto racing / Motorcross, Basketball, Billiards / Pool, Football, Hockey, Skiing, Swimming, Walking / Hiking, Weights / Machines, Yoga
I exercise 3-4 times per week.
I have Dogs, Horses
I like Birds, Cats, Exotic Pets, Fish
I visited France and Switzerland a few years ago. I enjoyed France. I'm planning to visit South Africa next. Eventually, I'd like to visit every continent. I have lots of love for the good old USA, so many awesome places at home too.
I'm a steak and potatoes guy plus a bottle of Cab! I like to try all different types of food though. I love to laugh, so im a fan of anything funny: movies, stand up, general goofyness! big fan of stimulating conversations too
I play beach volley ball as much as I can. It's a great physical and social sport. Plus it's on the beach!! I love active out doors - hiking, camping, kayaking, etc. I also enjoy cultural exploration whether its music, art, shows, food, etc.
Girl who kicked the hornets nest
Z{{Cta}} {{#if HasMoreInfo}} ?{{CtaSecondary}} {{/if}}
|What he is looking for
|6'1" (185cms)
|5'0" (152cms) to 5'10" (177cms)
|Body type:
|About average
|Slender, About average, Curvy, Athletic and toned
|Black, Blue, Brown, Grey, Green, Hazel
|Light brown
|Auburn / Red, Black, Light brown, Dark brown, Blonde, Dark blonde
|No Way
|No Way, Occasionally, Daily, Yes, but trying to quit
|Social Drinker
|Social Drinker, Regularly, Moderately
|Financial / Accounting / Real Estate
|No preference
|I'll tell you later
|Less Than $25,000, $25,001 to $35,000, $35,001 to $50,000, $50,001 to $75,000, $75,001 to $100,000, $100,001 to $150,000, $150,001+
|Never Married
|Never Married, Currently Separated, Divorced
|Have kids:
|Yes, and they sometimes live at home, No, Yes, and they live away from home
|Wants kids:
|Definitely, Someday, Not sure
|White / Caucasian
|Asian, Black / African descent, East Indian, Latino / Hispanic, Middle Eastern, Native American, Pacific Islander, White / Caucasian, Other
|I'll tell you later
|Agnostic, Atheist, Buddhist / Taoist, Christian / Catholic, Christian / LDS, Christian / Protestant, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim / Islam, Spiritual but not religious, Other, Christian / Other
|Bachelors degree
|No preference


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ShravanPakir commented on One corner of my heart. - A Teenage Soul
Zora: The World Of The Dead
Men have always been fighting with each other since the dawn of history. They have always met their matc...
Reading maketh a full man, conference a ready man and writing an exact man! - Francis Bacon
Btw Guys!! Shravan is just my Pen Name. Its actually an anagram of my real name.
Come get to know me personally to know the real me..:)
Description: A girl. She may be someone's sister, someone's mother. She is someone to be respected. This story is a tribute to all girls. My salute to you.
Men have always been fighting with each other since the dawn of history. They have always met their matc...
A small poem from me describing First Love
To the whole world, you are just some guy, but to someone, you might be the whole world! Live life, lov...
Fear. An emotion that guides every human being. In a way, experiencing fear at times brings us back to r...
@versoncmodequi It is just a word play of "We"... because they sound similar...
@versoncmodequi Sorry...didn't get you...I am not good with Tagalog
A person who has 142 followers is following me... I am honoured.
Thanks for following me. Hope you like my poems.
hellow fellow indian:)
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