text:
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
E-Print Network [OSTI]
· NATIONAL AND GLOBAL FORECASTS · WEST VIRGINIA PROFILES AND FORECASTS · ENERGY · HEALTHCARE Research West Virginia University College of Business and Economics P.O. Box 6527, Morgantown, WV 26506 EXPERT OPINION PROVIDED BY Keith Burdette Cabinet Secretary West Virginia Department of Commerce
Mohaghegh, Shahab
Analysis and forecast improvements from simulated satellite water vapor profiles and rainfall using a global data assimilation system
SciTech Connect (OSTI)
The potential improvements of analyses and forecasts from the use of satellite-observed rainfall and water vapor measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Sensor Microwave (SSM) T-1 and T-2 instruments are investigated in a series of observing system simulation experiments using the Air Force Phillips Laboratory (formerly Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) data assimilation system. Simulated SSM radiances are used directly in a radiance retrieval step following the conventional optimum interpolation analysis. Simulated rainfall rates in the tropics are used in a moist initialization procedure to improve the initial specification of divergence, moisture, and temperature. Results show improved analyses and forecasts of relative humidity and winds compared to the control experiment in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Forecast improvements are generally restricted to the first 1-3 days of the forecast. 27 refs., 11 figs.
Nehrkorn, T.; Hoffman, R.N.; Louis, J.F.; Isaacs, R.G.; Moncet, J.L. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, MA (United States))
1 A BAYESIAN MODEL COMMITTEE APPROACH TO FORECASTING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION in the realm of solar radiation forecasting. In this work, two forecasting models: Autoregressive Moving. The very first results show an improvement brought by this approach. 1. INTRODUCTION Solar radiation
Boyer, Edmond
NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps
Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 20 4010 Miles #12;Bay-S Pinellas Bay-UPR Bay Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12;Bay Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Southwest Florida Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles #12
Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin
A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatial scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.
Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Buizza, Roberto; Schaake, John
NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts
· NatioNal aNd Global Forecasts · West VirGiNia ProFiles aNd Forecasts · eNerGy · Healt Global Insight, paid for by the West Virginia Department of Revenue. 2013 WEST VIRGINIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOKWest Virginia Economic Outlook 2013 is published by: Bureau of Business & Economic Research West
SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEMS Detlev Heinemann firstname.lastname@example.com ABSTRACT Solar energy is expected to contribute major shares of the future global energy supply. Due to its and solar energy conversion processes has to account for this behaviour in respective operating strategies
Heinemann, Detlev
Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operation
In order to support large-scale integration of wind power into current electric energy system, accurate wind speed forecasting is essential, because the high variation and limited predictability of wind pose profound challenges to the power system...
Zhu, Xinxin
Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System
for the designation as UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SCHOLAR April 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering DYNAMIC ALGORITHM FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM A Junior Scholars Thesis by LUKE DUNCAN FISCHER Submitted to the Office of Undergraduate... 2010 Major: Nuclear Engineering iii ABSTRACT Dynamic Algorithm for Space Weather Forecasting System. (April 2010) Luke Duncan Fischer Department of Nuclear Engineering Texas A&M University Research Advisor: Dr. Stephen Guetersloh...
Fischer, Luke D.
Distribution of Wind Power Forecasting Errors from Operational Systems (Presentation)
This presentation offers new data and statistical analysis of wind power forecasting errors in operational systems.
Hodge, B. M.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.
NOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future)
conditions for up to 5 days in the future. These forecasts are run twice daily, and you can step through are generated every 6 hours and you can step backward in hourly increments to view conditions over the previousNOAA GREAT LAKES COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEM Forecasts (up to 5 days in the future) and Nowcasts
WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design
WP1: Targeted and informative forecast system design Emma Suckling, Leonard A. Smith and David Stainforth EQUIP Meeting August 2011 Edinburgh #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design Develop models to support decision making (1.4) #12;Targeted and informative forecast system design KEY QUESTIONS
Stevenson, Paul
Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)-Modular Ocean Model v4 (MOM4) coupled model
We present a diagnostic analysis of the marine low cloud climatology simulated by two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models: the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS). In both models, the shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations have been recently updated: both models now use a mass-flux scheme for the parameterization of shallow convection, and a turbulence parameterization capable of handling Stratocumulus (Sc)-topped Planetary Boundary Layers (PBLs). For shallow convection, both models employ a convective trigger function based on the concept of convective inhibition and both include explicit convective overshooting/penetrative entrainment formulation. For Sc-topped PBL, both models treat explicitly turbulence mixing and cloud-top entrainment driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. Our focus is on the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cumulus (Cu)-topped PBL in the subtropical eastern oceans. We show that in the CESM the coastal Sc-topped PBLs in the subtropical Eastern Pacific are well-simulated but the climatological transition from Sc to shallow Cu is too abrupt and happens too close to the coast. By contrast, in the GFS coupled simulation the coastal Sc amount and PBL depth are severely underestimated while the transition from Sc to shallow Cu is �delayed� and offshore Sc cover is too extensive in the subtropical Eastern Pacific. We discuss the possible connections between such differences in the simulations and differences in the parameterizations of shallow convection and boundary layer turbulence in the two models.
Xiao, Heng; Mechoso, C. R.; Sun, Rui; Han, J.; Pan, H. L.; Park, S.; Hannay, Cecile; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Teixeira, J.
0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System
0 20 4010 Miles NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps to Sargent BCH NOAA Harmful Algal Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102 Bloom Operational Forecast System Texas Forecast Region Maps 0 5 102.5 Miles West Bay #12;Aransas Bay
An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n
into the relationship between gold price and other key influencing variables, such as oil price and global inflationAn overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting Shahriar Shafiee a,n , Erkan Topal b history: Received 6 February 2009 Received in revised form 20 April 2010 Accepted 17 May 2010 Jel
Boisvert, Jeff
Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary satellites data
1 Time series modeling and large scale global solar radiation forecasting from geostationary global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types
Forecast Technical Document Forecast Types A document describing how different forecast types are implemented in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Forecast Types Background Different `types' of forecast are possible for a specified area
Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting
and substorms; 2784 Magnetospheric Physics: Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions; 3210 Mathematical Geophysics in the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, de- veloping first principles models that encompass allGlobal and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting
Sitnov, Mikhail I.
24-hours ahead global irradiation forecasting using Multi-Layer Cyril Voyant1*
; it is shown that the most relevant is based on a multi- output MLP using endogenous and exogenous input data ahead. In the case of solar plants, the driving factor is the global solar irradiation (sum of direct and diffuse solar radiation projected on a plane (Wh/m�)). This paper focuses on the 24-hours ahead forecast
Paris-Sud XI, Universit� de
Streamflow forecasting for large-scale hydrologic systems
STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas AkM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May... 1991 Major Subject: Civil Engineering STREAMFLOW FORECASTING FOR LARGE-SCALE HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS A Thesis by HAITHAM MUNIR AWWAD Approved as to style and content by: uan B. Valdes (Chair of Committee) alph A. Wurbs (Member) Marshall J. Mc...
Awwad, Haitham Munir
Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL
Distributed Forcing of Forecast and Assimilation Error Systems BRIAN F. FARRELL Division forecast system gov- erning forecast error growth and the tangent linear observer system governing deterministic and stochastic forcings of the forecast and observer systems over a chosen time interval
Farrell, Brian F.
Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report
The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.
Not Available
Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems
Cloudy Computing: Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Energy Harvesting Sensor Systems Navin Sharma,gummeson,irwin,firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract--To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands
Shenoy, Prashant
Increasing NOAA's computational capacity to improve global forecast modeling
Systems Division Stephen J. Lord Director, NWS NCEP Environmental Modeling Center 19 July 2010 (303) 4973060 email@example.com #12; 2 Executive Summary The accuracy of many
Hamill, Tom
Documentation of the Hourly Time Series NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis
- 1 - Documentation of the Hourly Time Series from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial condition 1 Jan 1979, 0Z Record 1: f00: forecast at first time step of 3 mins Record 2: f01: forecast (either averaged over 0 to 1 hour, or instantaneous at 1 hour) Record 3: f02: forecast (either
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast System
Development, implementation, and skill assessment of the NOAA/NOS Great Lakes Operational Forecast Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observa- tions and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature
THE PREV AIR SYSTEM, AN OPERATIONAL SYSTEM FOR LARGE SCALE AIR QUALITY FORECASTS OVER EUROPE Author ABSTRACT Since Summer 2003, the PREV'AIR system has been delivering through the Internet1 daily air quality forecasts over Europe. This is the visible part of a wider collaborative project
NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT High-Resolution Window Forecast System (HIRESW) Full
NCEP Products Available to Distribute to CONDUIT Phase 1 High-Resolution Window Forecast System Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS) Full Description Product Location The RTOFS for the North Atlantic resolution nest Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) system Full Description Product Location (hwrf
Solar forecasting review
and forecasting of solar radiation data: a review,�forecasting of solar- radiation data,� Solar Energy, vol.sequences of global solar radiation data for isolated sites:
Inman, Richard Headen
Weather forecast-based optimization of integrated energy systems.
In this work, we establish an on-line optimization framework to exploit detailed weather forecast information in the operation of integrated energy systems, such as buildings and photovoltaic/wind hybrid systems. We first discuss how the use of traditional reactive operation strategies that neglect the future evolution of the ambient conditions can translate in high operating costs. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of a supervisory dynamic optimization strategy that can lead to more proactive and cost-effective operations. The strategy is based on the solution of a receding-horizon stochastic dynamic optimization problem. This permits the direct incorporation of economic objectives, statistical forecast information, and operational constraints. To obtain the weather forecast information, we employ a state-of-the-art forecasting model initialized with real meteorological data. The statistical ambient information is obtained from a set of realizations generated by the weather model executed in an operational setting. We present proof-of-concept simulation studies to demonstrate that the proposed framework can lead to significant savings (more than 18% reduction) in operating costs.
Zavala, V. M.; Constantinescu, E. M.; Krause, T.; Anitescu, M.
Solar Forecasting System and Irradiance Variability Characterization
and Energy Reliability As part of Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Under Task 3.1: Photovoltaic Systems Reliability Under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-EE0003507 Hawai`i Energy Sustainability Program Subtask 3.1 Photovoltaic Systems: Report 3 Development of data base allowing managed access to statewide PV and insolation
Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems
Demand Forecast and Performance Prediction in Peer-Assisted On-Demand Streaming Systems Di Niu on the Internet. Automated demand forecast and performance prediction, if implemented, can help with capacity an accurate user demand forecast. In this paper, we analyze the operational traces collected from UUSee Inc
Li, Baochun
Electric Grid - Forecasting system licensed | ornl.gov
Broader source: All U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office Webpages (Extended Search)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation Proposed NewcatalystNeutronEnvironmentZIRKLEEFFECTS OFElaineElectric Grid - Forecasting system
Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy
Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.
Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.
Development and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast
forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableDevelopment and Demonstration of a Relocatable Ocean OSSE System: Optimizing Ocean Observations in the Gulf of Mexico is being extended to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems
Forecasting the Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems: Using Bounded Manufacturing Progress Functions
Costs of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems - Using BoundedCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems - Using BoundedCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems Forecasting the
Lipman, Timonthy E.; Sperling, Daniel
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS BRISBANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENTS The Bureau of Meteorology is progressively upgrading its forecast system to provide more detailed forecasts across Australia and Sunshine Coast. FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 Links
Greenslade, Diana
Weather Forecast Data an Important Input into Building Management Systems
it can generate as much or more energy that it needs ? Building activities need N kWhrs per day (solar panels, heating, etc) ? Harvested from solar panels & passive solar. Amount depends on weather ? NWP models forecast DSWRF @ surface (MJ/m2... contract work Saturday Would you plan work for Saturday? Not much detail for Saturday and Sunday With more info could be easier to decide go, no go From deterministic to probabilistic ? Forecast presented as a single scenario ? One scenario presented...
Poulin, L.
Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint
The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.
Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.
NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power
NCAR WRF-based data assimilation and forecasting systems for wind energy applications power Yuewei of these modeling technologies w.r.t. wind energy applications. Then I'll discuss wind farm
Kim, Guebuem
Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)
The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.
Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.
Navy mobility fuels forecasting system report: World petroleum trade forecasts for the year 2000
The Middle East will continue to play the dominant role of a petroleum supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to business-as-usual forecasts published by the US Department of Energy. However, interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. US petroleum imports will increase from 46% in 1989 to 49% in 2000. A significantly higher level of US petroleum imports (principally products) will be coming from Japan, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Several regions, the Far East, Japan, Latin American, and Africa will import more petroleum. Much uncertainty remains about of the level future Soviet crude oil production. USSR net petroleum exports will decrease; however, the United States and Canada will receive some of their imports from the Soviet Union due to changes in the world trade patterns. The Soviet Union can avoid becoming a net petroleum importer as long as it (1) maintains enough crude oil production to meet its own consumption and (2) maintains its existing refining capacities. Eastern Europe will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.
Das, S.
Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems
Impact of forecasting error on the performance of capacitated multi-item production systems Jinxing multi-item production system under demand uncertainty and a rolling time horizon. The output from parameters, thus improving the performance of production systems. q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
Xie, Jinxing
Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint
The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.
Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.
Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System
Impact of a New Radiation Package, McRad, in the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System J Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada J. N. S. COLE Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences March 2008) ABSTRACT A new radiation package, "McRad," has become operational with cycle 32R2
Robert, Pincus
Multiagent Bayesian Forecasting of Structural Time-Invariant Dynamic Systems with
. Alternatively, time series are represented by state-space models, also referred to as multivariate dynamic and science. We study forecasting of stochastic, dynamic systems based on observations from multivariate time to a discrete time, multivariate time series [1, 2]. The primary inference that we address is one- step
Xiang, Yang
Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay
Incorporating Optics into a Coupled Physical-Biological Forecasting System in the Monterey Bay Fei://www.marine.maine.edu/~eboss/index.html http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/ LONG-TERM GOALS Modeling and predicting ocean optical properties for coastal waters requires linking optical properties with the physical, chemical, and biological processes
Boss, Emmanuel S.
ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF AIR POLLUTION (APPLICATION Chile and other cities in Chile, air pollution is a dramatic problem. An Environmental Information planning. Using a model-based EIS for air pollution it is possible (i) to study complex source
Bertossi, Leopoldo
Tropical Cyclone Data Assimilation: Experiments with a Coupled Global-Limited-Area Analysis System
of the storm locations for moderate and weak storms. Improvements in the steering flow analysis due to increased resolution are modest and short-lived in the forecasts. Limited-area track forecasts are more accurate, on average, than global forecasts...
Holt, Christina
Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis
Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Unadjusted Forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Zhao, Feng
Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System Phase 6 report: Impacts of a military disruption on Navy fuel availability and quality
The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the impacts of a severe military disruption on the production of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel in the year 1995. The global petroleum supply reduction due to the disruption was about 40 percent of the business-as-usual supply. Regional production cost increases for JP-5 were between $3 and $11 per gallon during the disruption. For F-76, the production cost increases were between $3 and $5 per gallon. The disruption caused substantial degradations for certain fuel quality properties of F-76 produced in the Pacific basin and in southern Europe. During both business-as-usual and disruption, the most prevalent Navy fuel quality problem was F-76 instability due to high levels of light cycle oils. 37 refs., 1 fig., 21 tabs.
Hadder, G.R.; Davis, R.M.
Global optimization of hybrid systems
Systems that exhibit both discrete state and continuous state dynamics are called hybrid systems. In most nontrivial cases, these two aspects of system behavior interact to such a significant extent that they cannot be ...
Lee, Cha Kun
Global Dynamics in Galactic Triaxial Systems I
In this paper we present a theoretical analysis of the global dynamics in a triaxial galactic system using a 3D integrable Hamiltonian as a simple representation. We include a thorough discussion on the effect of adding a generic non--integrable perturbation to the global dynamics of the system. We adopt the triaxial Stackel Hamiltonian as the integrable model and compute its resonance structure in order to understand its global dynamics when a perturbation is introduced. Also do we take profit of this example in order to provide a theoretical discussion about diffussive processes taking place in phase space.
Pablo M. Cincotta; Claudia M. Giordano; Josefa Perez; .
When a territory is poorly instrumented, geostationary satellites data can be useful to predict global solar radiation. In this paper, we use geostationary satellites data to generate 2-D time series of solar radiation for the next hour. The results presented in this paper relate to a particular territory, the Corsica Island, but as data used are available for the entire surface of the globe, our method can be easily exploited to another place. Indeed 2-D hourly time series are extracted from the HelioClim-3 surface solar irradiation database treated by the Heliosat-2 model. Each point of the map have been used as training data and inputs of artificial neural networks (ANN) and as inputs for two persistence models (scaled or not). Comparisons between these models and clear sky estimations were proceeded to evaluate the performances. We found a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) close to 16.5% for the two best predictors (scaled persistence and ANN) equivalent to 35-45% related to ground measurements. F...
Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie Laure
GEO Secretariat Global Earth Observing System of
and Epidemiology 3. Energy Management 4. Climate Variability & Change 5. Water Management 6. Weather Forecasting 7 2009-11 Work Plan Objective: to improve the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal
2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Program Plan
package. · Two 18 UTC update forecasts on demand basis, with the same domain and configuration, running2009 CAPS Spring Forecast Experiment Program Plan April 20, 2009 #12;2 Table of Content 1. Overview .......................................................................................................4 3. Forecast System Configuration
Droegemeier, Kelvin K.
Incorporating Wind Generation Forecast Uncertainty into Power System Operation, Dispatch, and Unit Commitment Procedures
In this paper, an approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty of both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures) nature. A new method called the "flying-brick" technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jian; Subbarao, Krishnappa
Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model
Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.
Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J
Scientist warns against overselling climate change Climate change forecasters should admit that they cannot predict how global warming will affect
that they cannot predict how global warming will affect individual countries, a leading physicist has said-of-deaths-from-ozone-predicted.html) Antarctic sea floor gives clues about effects of future global warming (/earth/environment/climatechange /5279223/Antarctic-sea-floor-gives-clues-about-affects-of-future-global-warming.html) The Vanishing Face
Technology Forecasting Scenario Development
Technology Forecasting and Scenario Development Newsletter No. 2 October 1998 Systems Analysis was initiated on the establishment of a new research programme entitled Technology Forecasting and Scenario and commercial applica- tion of new technology. An international Scientific Advisory Panel has been set up
Global positioning system recorder and method
DOE Patents [OSTI]
A global positioning system recorder (GPSR) is disclosed in which operational parameters and recorded positional data are stored on a transferable memory element. Through this transferrable memory element, the user of the GPSR need have no knowledge of GPSR devices other than that the memory element needs to be inserted into the memory element slot and the GPSR must be activated. The use of the data element also allows for minimal downtime of the GPSR and the ability to reprogram the GPSR and download data therefrom, without having to physically attach it to another computer. 4 figs.
Hayes, D.W.; Hofstetter, K.J.; Eakle, R.F. Jr.; Reeves, G.E.
Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) EGU
Operational hydro-meteorological warning and real-time flood forecasting:the Piemonte region case study 457 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 9(4), 457466 (2005) © EGU Operational hydro forecasting system in the context of the Piemonte Regions hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species
Forecast Technical Document Tree Species A document listing the tree species included in the 2011 Production Forecast Tom Jenkins Justin Gilbert Ewan Mackie Robert Matthews #12;PF2011 List of tree species The following is the list of species used within the Forecast System. Species are ordered alphabetically
Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations
The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators� forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique features make this work a significant step forward toward the objective of incorporating of wind, solar, load, and other uncertainties into power system operations. In this report, a new methodology to predict the uncertainty ranges for the required balancing capacity, ramping capability and ramp duration is presented. Uncertainties created by system load forecast errors, wind and solar forecast errors, generation forced outages are taken into account. The uncertainty ranges are evaluated for different confidence levels of having the actual generation requirements within the corresponding limits. The methodology helps to identify system balancing reserve requirement based on a desired system performance levels, identify system �breaking points�, where the generation system becomes unable to follow the generation requirement curve with the user-specified probability level, and determine the time remaining to these potential events. The approach includes three stages: statistical and actual data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of future grid balancing requirements for specified time horizons and confidence intervals. Assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on a histogram analysis incorporating all sources of uncertainty and parameters of a continuous (wind forecast and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and failures to start up) nature. Preliminary simulations using California Independent System Operator (California ISO) real life data have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A tool developed based on the new methodology described in this report will be integrated with the California ISO systems. Contractual work is currently in place to integrate the tool with the AREVA EMS system.
Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.
Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration
1 Using reforecasts for probabilistic forecast calibration Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research that is currently operational. #12;3 Why compute reforecasts? · For many forecast problems, such as long-lead forecasts or high-precipitation events, a few past forecasts may be insufficient for calibrating
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals
Forecast Technical Document Felling and Removals Forecasts A document describing how volume fellings and removals are handled in the 2011 Production Forecast system. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Felling and removals forecasts Background A fellings and removals
Load Forecast For use in Resource Adequacy
-term Electricity Demand Forecasting System 1) Obtain Daily Regional Temperatures 6) Estimate Daily WeatherLoad Forecast 2019 For use in Resource Adequacy Massoud Jourabchi #12;In today's presentation d l Load forecast methodology Drivers of the forecast f i Treatment of conservation
Efficient Symbolic Detection of Global Properties in Distributed Systems
to total orders containing the happenedbefore relation. A consistent global state (CGS) of a computation cEfficient Symbolic Detection of Global Properties in Distributed Systems Scott D. Stoller a global state satisfying property \\Phi. Previous generalpurpose algorithms for this problem explicitly
Stoller, Scott
Solar Radio Burst Effects on Global Positioning System Receivers .
??This thesis presents a series of studies investigating solar radio burst effects on Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers along with supporting instrumentation and analysis techniques.� (more)
Cerruti, Alessandro Paolo
Prediction and Optimization of Global Systems using Mathematical...
Prediction and Optimization of Global Systems using Mathematical and Statistical Modelling Event Sponsor: Mathematics and Computing Science - LANS Seminar Start Date: Jan 14 2015 -...
Large-scale Probabilistic Forecasting in Energy Systems using Sparse Gaussian Conditional Random Fields
smart grid operations [1]. Despite their ubiquity and the complexity of many forecasting methods, most predictions of upcoming values, typically to minimize a metric such as root mean squared error. However
Kolter, J. Zico
Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System report: Navy fuel production in the year 2000
The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People's Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.
The Refinery Yield Model of the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting System has been used to study the feasibility and quality of Navy JP-5 jet fuel and F-76 marine diesel fuel for two scenarios in the year 2000. Both scenarios account for environmental regulations for fuels produced in the US and assume that Eastern Europe, the USSR, and the People`s Republic of China have free market economies. One scenario is based on business-as-usual market conditions for the year 2000. The second scenario is similar to first except that USSR crude oil production is 24 percent lower. During lower oil production in the USSR., there are no adverse effects on Navy fuel availability, but JP-5 is generally a poorer quality fuel relative to business-as-usual in the year 2000. In comparison with 1990, there are two potential problems areas for future Navy fuel quality. The first problem is increased aromaticity of domestically produced Navy fuels. Higher percentages of aromatics could have adverse effects on storage, handling, and combustion characteristics of both JP-5 and F-76. The second, and related, problem is that highly aromatic light cycle oils are blended into F-76 at percentages which promote fuel instability. It is recommended that the Navy continue to monitor the projected trend toward increased aromaticity in JP-5 and F-76 and high percentages of light cycle oils in F-76. These potential problems should be important considerations in research and development for future Navy engines.
Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements
Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements Y. Bock,1 L. Prawirodirdjo: crustal motion, Indonesia tectonics, GPS, current plate motions, Southeast Asia Citation: Bock, Y., L, Crustal motion in Indonesia from Global Positioning System measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 108(B8), 2367
McCaffrey, Robert
Solar Forecasting
Broader source: Energy.gov [DOE]
On December 7, 2012,�DOE announced $8 million to fund two solar projects that are helping utilities and grid operators better forecast when, where, and how much solar power will be produced at U.S....
Validation of the Highway Performance Monitoring System for forecasting levels of traffic
(TTI) located on the Texas A&M campus. These data sets were used in the determination of the accuracy of the forecasting method as used by the TXDOT in the submission of the liPMS data. Data from the two test years were obtained from TTI. The test...
Bray, Rebecca Anne
EWEC 2006 Scientific Track Advanced Forecast Systems for the Grid Integration of 25 GW
forecasts, smoothing effects Abstract The economic success of offshore wind farms in liberalised electricity of offshore wind farms, their electricity production must be known well in advance to allow an efficient Oldenburg, Germany Key words: Offshore wind power, grid integration, short-term prediction, regional
12.540 Principles of Global Positioning Systems, Spring 2008
The aim of this course is to introduce the principles of the Global Positioning System and to demonstrate its application to various aspects of Earth Sciences. The specific content of the course depends each year on the ...
Herring, Thomas
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast
Forecast Technical Document Restocking in the Forecast A document describing how restocking of felled areas is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the forecast Background During the period of a production forecast it is assumed that, as forest sub
Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power system operation and
Abstract--Forecasting of future electricity demand is very important for decision making in power industry, accurate forecasting of future electricity demand has become an important research area sector. This paper presents a novel approach for mid-term electricity load forecasting. It uses a hybrid
Ducatelle, Frederick
(1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts
1 (1) Ensemble forecast calibration & (2) using reforecasts Tom Hamill NOAA Earth System Research · Calibration: ; the statistical adjustment of the (ensemble) forecast Rationale 1: Infer large-sample probabilities from small ensemble. Rationale 2: Remove bias, increase forecast reliability while preserving
Puget Sound Operational Forecast System - A Real-time Predictive Tool for Marine Resource Management and Emergency Responses
To support marine ecological resource management and emergency response and to enhance scientific understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in Puget Sound, a real-time Puget Sound Operational Forecast System (PS-OFS) was developed by the Coastal Ocean Dynamics & Ecosystem Modeling group (CODEM) of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PS-OFS employs the state-of-the-art three-dimensional coastal ocean model and closely follows the standards and procedures established by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS). PS-OFS consists of four key components supporting the Puget Sound Circulation and Transport Model (PS-CTM): data acquisition, model execution and product archive, model skill assessment, and model results dissemination. This paper provides an overview of PS-OFS and its ability to provide vital real-time oceanographic information to the Puget Sound community. PS-OFS supports pacific northwest region�s growing need for a predictive tool to assist water quality management, fish stock recovery efforts, maritime emergency response, nearshore land-use planning, and the challenge of climate change and sea level rise impacts. The structure of PS-OFS and examples of the system inputs and outputs, forecast results are presented in details.
Yang, Zhaoqing; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Chase, Jared M.; Wang, Taiping
ExxonMobil Global Energy Management System
of our refineries and chemical plants. The system builds on international best practices and benchmarking to identify energy efficiencies. Launched in 2000, it utilizes a common methodology to identify performance gaps, implement closure plans, sustain...
Roberto, F.
Aviation Safety + Security Program GLOBAL EXPERTS IN SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
2010- 2011 Aviation Safety + Security Program GLOBAL EXPERTS IN SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS Relevance and currency -- that is what drives the Aviation Safety and Security Program of the USC Viterbi that our core course, Aviation Safety Management Systems, is so necessary in ensuring the safety
Wang, Hai
Linear Diagnostics to Assess the Performance of an Ensemble Forecast System
. The mathematical model we adopt to predict the evolution of uncertainty in a local state estimate (analysis or forecast), xe, is based on the assumption that the error in the state estimate, ? = xe ? xt, (2.1) *Portions of this chapter have been reprinted from... variable. In Equation (2.1) xt is the model representation of the, in practice unknown, true state of the atmosphere. The covariance between the different components of ? is described by the error covariance matrix P`. We employ a K-member ensemble...
Satterfield, Elizabeth A.
Robotic Intelligent System | GE Global Research
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared0 Resource Program SeptemberRobertIntelligent System Could Save
Astronomical relativistic reference systems with multipolar expansion: the global one
With rapid development of techniques for astronomical observations, the precision of measurements has been significantly increasing. Theories of astronomical relativistic reference systems, which are the foundation for processing and interpreting these data now and in the future, may require extensions to satisfy the needs of these trends. Besides building a framework compatible with alternative theories of gravity and the pursuit of higher order post-Newtonian approximation, it will also be necessary to make the first order post-Newtonian multipole moments of celestial bodies be explicitly expressed in the astronomical relativistic reference systems. This will bring some convenience into modeling the observations and experiments and make it easier to distinguish different contributions in measurements. As the first step, the global solar system reference system is multipolarly expanded and the post-Newtonian mass and spin moments are shown explicitly in the metric which describes the coordinates of the system. The full expression of the global metric is given.
Yi Xie
Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series
Univariate Modeling and Forecasting of Monthly Energy Demand Time Series Using Abductive and Neural demand time series based only on data for six years to forecast the demand for the seventh year. Both networks, Neural networks, Modeling, Forecasting, Energy demand, Time series forecasting, Power system
Abdel-Aal, Radwan E.
2011- 2012 Aviation Safety + Security Program GLOBAL EXPERTS IN SAFETY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS of aviation safety. Endings signal new beginnings and new beginnings mean evolving challenges for safety. This was the world in which the USC Aviation Safety and Security Program was born in 1952 and this is the world
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations
Wind Power Forecasting andWind Power Forecasting and Electricity Market Operations Audun Botterud://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/windpowerforecasting.html IAWind 2010 Ames, IA, April 6, 2010 #12;Outline Background Using wind power forecasts in market operations Current status in U.S. markets Handling uncertainties in system operations Wind power
Kemner, Ken
Funding Opportunity Announcement for Wind Forecasting Improvement...
Office of Environmental Management (EM)
to improved forecasts, system operators and industry professionals can ensure that wind turbines will operate at their maximum potential. Data collected during this field...
Upcoming Funding Opportunity for Wind Forecasting Improvement...
Forecasted Opportunities
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsing ZirconiaPolicyFeasibilityFieldMinds" |beamtheFor yourForForecasted
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS DISTRICT FORECASTS IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia From October 2013, new and improved district forecasts will be introduced in Queensland Protection times FURTHER INFORMATION : www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 PTO> Wind
the manufactunng costs of fuel cells systems from presentlevel and manufactunng cost of PEM fuel cell systems, for amthe present cost cf PEM fuel cell systems by consldenng a
Global Systems-Level Analysis of Hfq and SmpB Deletion Mutants...
Systems-Level Analysis of Hfq and SmpB Deletion Mutants in Salmonella: Implications for Virulence and Global Protein Global Systems-Level Analysis of Hfq and SmpB Deletion Mutants...
s pilot-scale PEM fuel cell manufactunng cost, and theproductaon, PEM fuel cell systems could cost $35 - 90/kW,is how PEM fuel cell system manufactunng costs might evolve
SIG Technology Review Summer 1994 57 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System
SIG Technology Review · Summer 1994 57 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System Dan Simon and Hossny El-Sherief, TRW Ballistic Technology Review · Summer 1994 Real-Time Navigation Using the Global Positioning System introduces errors
Simon, Dan
Hybrid Generation Systems Planning Expansion Forecast: A Critical State of the Art Review
resources. In order to power system enhance reliability, efficiency and safety, renewable and nonrenewable, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass constitute a type of distributed electricity resources and have recently, these generation unit should be working together in two or more sources in the so-called hybrid system concept
Brest, Université de
Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases
Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Using Wikipedia to forecast diseases Scientists can now monitor and forecast diseases around the globe more effectively by analyzing views of...
Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling
Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Team: R Ananthakrishnan1 , D E Bernholdt7,9 , S Bharathi8 , D Brown5 , M Chen7 , A L Chervenak8 , L Cinquini5 , R Drach3
Chervenak, Ann
Forecasting and Capturing Emission Reductions Using Industrial Energy Management and Reporting Systems
The Mandatory 2010 Green House Gas (GHG) Reporting Regulations and pending climate change legislation has increased interest in Energy Management and Reporting Systems (EMRS) as a means of both reducing and reporting GHG emissions. This paper...
Robinson, J.
A High-Fidelity Temperature Distribution Forecasting System for Data Centers Jinzhu Chen1
are essential for preventing overheating- induced server shutdowns and improving a data center's energy are complex Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) whose thermal characteristics are inherently affected by both
Use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
The rapid expansion of wind power gives rise to a number of challenges for power system operators and electricity market participants. The key operational challenge is to efficiently handle the uncertainty and variability of wind power when balancing supply and demand in ths system. In this report, we analyze how wind power forecasting can serve as an efficient tool toward this end. We discuss the current status of wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets and develop several methodologies and modeling tools for the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions, from the perspectives of the system operator as well as the wind power producer. In particular, we focus on the use of probabilistic forecasts in operational decisions. Driven by increasing prices for fossil fuels and concerns about greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, wind power, as a renewable and clean source of energy, is rapidly being introduced into the existing electricity supply portfolio in many parts of the world. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has analyzed a scenario in which wind power meets 20% of the U.S. electricity demand by 2030, which means that the U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW). The European Union is pursuing a target of 20/20/20, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20%, increase the amount of renewable energy to 20% of the energy supply, and improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020 as compared to 1990. Meanwhile, China is the leading country in terms of installed wind capacity, and had 45 GW of installed wind power capacity out of about 200 GW on a global level at the end of 2010. The rapid increase in the penetration of wind power into power systems introduces more variability and uncertainty in the electricity generation portfolio, and these factors are the key challenges when it comes to integrating wind power into the electric power grid. Wind power forecasting (WPF) is an important tool to help efficiently address this challenge, and significant efforts have been invested in developing more accurate wind power forecasts. In this report, we document our work on the use of wind power forecasting in operational decisions.
Botterud, A.; Zhi, Z.; Wang, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Mendes, J.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsingFun with Big Sky LearningGet Assistance GetGiant ProteaseGlass andT.2 -Global
MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG
MLWFA: A Multilingual Weather Forecast Text Generation System1 Tianfang YAO Dongmo ZHANG Qian WANG generation; Weather forecast generation system Abstract In this demonstration, we present a system for multilingual text generation in the weather forecast domain. Multilingual Weather Forecast Assistant (MLWFA
Wu, Dekai
Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration
energy system. Observed refrigeration load and local ambient temperature from a Danish su- permarket renewable energy, is increasing, therefore a flexible energy system is needed. In the present ThesisLoad Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration Lisa Buth Rasmussen Kongens Lyngby 2013 M.Sc.-2013
fuel cell stacks (Savote (1998)) Estimating manufactunng costfuel cell stacks, $20/kWfor fuel processors, and $20/kWfor "balance of plant" auxlhary components These costCosts of Automotive PEM Fuel Cell Systems (PEM)fuel cell stack
E cient Detection of Global Properties in Distributed Systems Using Partial-Order Methods
in c that correspond to total orders containing the happened-before relation. A consistent global stateE cient Detection of Global Properties in Distributed Systems Using Partial-Order Methods Scott D "), meaning the system could have passed through a global state satisfying predicate , or Def (read \\de nitely
MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version 2: Model Description and Baseline Evaluation
The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) is designed for analyzing the global environmental changes that may result from anthropogenic causes, quantifying the uncertainties associated with the projected changes, and ...
Sokolov, Andrei P.
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment
Forecast Technical Document Volume Increment Forecasts A document describing how volume increment is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Volume increment forecasts Background A volume increment forecast is a fundamental output of the forecast
Predictability of European air quality: Assessment of 3 years of operational forecasts and analyses by the PREV'AIR system
- ments are still needed to manage and control the impacts of air pollution on health. [3] Facing, is proved to improve ozone forecasts, especially when photochemical pollution episodes occur. The PREV'AIR and laws regarding the pollutants of utmost importance in relation to human health, air pollution is still
Menut, Laurent
Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model
This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.
Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States)
there is significant uncertainty in its future intensity, the current forecast is for a slowly strengthening TC which, 3) forecast output from global models, 4) the current and projected state of the Madden with these two-week forecasts is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is defined to be all
Gray, William
First numerical evidence of global Arnold diffusion in quasi--integrable systems
We provide numerical evidence of global diffusion occurring in slightly perturbed integrable Hamiltonian systems and symplectic maps. We show that even if a system is sufficiently close to be integrable, global diffusion occurs on a set with peculiar topology, the so--called Arnold web, and is qualitatively different from Chirikov diffusion, occurring in more perturbed systems.
Massimiliano Guzzo; Elena Lega; Claude Froeschle'
Global Error bounds for systems of convex polynomials over ...
Acknowledgement. References. [1] Auslender A., Crouzeix J.P., Global regularily theorems, Math. Oper. Res., 13(1998), pp. 243-253. [2] A. Auslender and M.
Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and
Prediction versus Projection: How weather forecasting and climate models differ. Aaron B. Wilson Context: Global http://data.giss.nasa.gov/ #12;Numerical Weather Prediction Collect Observations alters associated weather patterns. Models used to predict weather depend on the current observed state
Howat, Ian M.
5.5 ENSEMBLE RE-FORECASTING : IMPROVING MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SKILL USING RETROSPECTIVE FORECASTS, Colorado 1. INTRODUCTION Improving weather forecasts is a primary goal of the U.S. National Oceanic predictions has been to improve the accuracy of the numerical forecast models. Much effort has been expended
Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning Vivien Mallet,1,2
Ozone ensemble forecast with machine learning algorithms Vivien Mallet,1,2 Gilles Stoltz,3 forecasts. The latter rely on a multimodel ensemble built for ozone forecasting with the modeling system Europe in order to forecast ozone daily peaks and ozone hourly concentrations. On the basis of past
INFORMATION SYSTEM � Forecast -- Conditional probability distribution for event Z = z indicates forecast tornado #12;(1.2) FRAMEWORK � Joint Distribution of Observations & Forecasts Observed Weather = Forecast probability p (e.g., induced by Z) � Reliability Diagram Observed weather: = 1 (Adverse weather occurs) = 0
Katz, Richard
Ramp Forecasting Performance from Improved Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting: Preprint
The variable and uncertain nature of wind generation presents a new concern to power system operators. One of the biggest concerns associated with integrating a large amount of wind power into the grid is the ability to handle large ramps in wind power output. Large ramps can significantly influence system economics and reliability, on which power system operators place primary emphasis. The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) was performed to improve wind power forecasts and determine the value of these improvements to grid operators. This paper evaluates the performance of improved short-term wind power ramp forecasting. The study is performed for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) by comparing the experimental WFIP forecast to the current short-term wind power forecast (STWPF). Four types of significant wind power ramps are employed in the study; these are based on the power change magnitude, direction, and duration. The swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract ramp events from actual and forecasted wind power time series. The results show that the experimental short-term wind power forecasts improve the accuracy of the wind power ramp forecasting, especially during the summer.
Zhang, J.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.; Freedman, J.
Securing Offshore Infrastructures Through a Global Alert and Graded Response System
1 « SARGOS » Securing Offshore Infrastructures Through a Global Alert and Graded Response System and graded response system to answer the recent but strong need for securing critical civilian offshore of their 2009 global safety program (CSOSG). 1. Introduction Offshore oil installations are critical energy
The First Result of Global Commissioning of the ATALS Endcap Muon Trigger System in ATLAS Cavern
The First Result of Global Commissioning of the ATALS Endcap Muon Trigger System in ATLAS Cavern T to the ATLAS cavern by the end of September 2007. To integrate all sub-detectors before the physics run. The first Result of Global Commissioning of the ATALS Endcap Muon Trigger System in ATLAS Cavern I
Fukunaga, Chikara
2.1.2 European Solar Radiation Atlas (ESRA)2.4 Evaluation of Solar Forecasting . . . . . . . . .2.4.1 Solar Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . .
CONSULTANT REPORT DEMAND FORECAST EXPERT PANEL INITIAL forecast, end-use demand modeling, econometric modeling, hybrid demand modeling, energyMahon, Carl Linvill 2012. Demand Forecast Expert Panel Initial Assessment. California Energy
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint
Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.
Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.
Rainfall-River Forecasting
;2Rainfall-River Forecasting Joint Summit II NOAA Integrated Water Forecasting Program · Minimize losses due management and enhance America's coastal assets · Expand information for managing America's Water Resources, Precipitation and Water Quality Observations · USACE Reservoir Operation Information, Streamflow, Snowpack
US Army Corps of Engineers
220 Communications of the Association for Information Systems (Volume 13, 2004)220-232 The Australian Produce Co-Operative; A Global Information Systems Project by H. Lehmann
is intertwined with the pre-existing politically charged environment that characterizes the global firm. Further an international information system as it follows APCO's global system development. It shows the difficulties systems implementation, multinational companies, politics in multinational companies, international
Bieber, Michael
Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems: natural emissions and anthropogenic eects
Global distribution of N2O emissions from aquatic systems: natural emissions and anthropogenic, are increasing due to human activities. Our analysis suggests that a third of global anthropogenic N2O emission the remainder. Over 80% of aquatic anthropogenic N2O emissions are from the Northern Hemisphere mid
Seitzinger, Sybil
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 On the computational studies of deterministic global
optimization of head dependent short-term hydro scheduling Ricardo M. Lima, Marian G. Marcovecchio, Augusto Q scheduling, MINLP, global optimization. NOMENCLATURE A. Indices and sets i,k,I Hydro plants IC PairsIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 On the computational studies of deterministic global
Grossmann, Ignacio E.
Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected.
Background: Global Warming, 2009 1. Unequivocally, the climate is warming. Natural systems are affected. 2. Very likely (>90% certainty), humans are causing most of the warming. 3. No single technology are very likely to impose net annual costs, which will increase over time as global temperatures increase
Minnesota, University of
The West African port system: global insertion and regional particularities Jean Debrie
1 The West African port system: global insertion and regional particularities Jean Debrie firstname.lastname@example.com Chargé de recherche Université Paris Est, IFSTTAR, SPLOTT Introduction. Port networks: a global change accompanied by a change in the morphology of the networks that serve ports. Shipping lines and container
A fast global optimization approach to VAR planning for the large scale electric power systems
In this paper, an innovative fast global optimization technique, Hybrid Partial Gradient Descent/Simulated Annealing (HPGDSA), for optimal VAR planning is presented. The HPGDSA is introduced to search the global optimal solution considering both quality and speed at the same time. The basic idea of the HPGDSA is that partial gradient descent and simulated annealing alternate with each other such that it reduces the CPU time of the conventional Simulated Annealing (SA) method while retaining the main characteristics of SA, i.e., the ability to get the global optimal solution. The HPGDSA was applied to a practical power system, Taiwan Power System (Tai-Power System), with satisfactory results.
Liu, C.W.; Jwo, W.S.; Liu, C.C. [National Taiwan Univ., Taipei (Taiwan, Province of China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Hsiao, Y.T. [Tamkang Univ., Taipei (Taiwan, Province of China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
1 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS: DECISION MAKING WITH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY Rick Katz.isse.ucar.edu/HP_rick/dmuu.pdf #12;2 QUOTES ON USE OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS · Lao Tzu (Chinese Philosopher) "He who knows does and Value of Probability Forecasts (4) Cost-Loss Decision-Making Model (5) Simulation Example (6) Economic
Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.
This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Water Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.
Brainard, James Robert
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required of any forecast of electricity demand and developing ways to reduce the risk of planning errors that could arise from this and other uncertainties in the planning process. Electricity demand is forecast
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint
Forecasting solar energy generation is a challenging task due to the variety of solar power systems and weather regimes encountered. Forecast inaccuracies can result in substantial economic losses and power system reliability issues. This paper presents a suite of generally applicable and value-based metrics for solar forecasting for a comprehensive set of scenarios (i.e., different time horizons, geographic locations, applications, etc.). In addition, a comprehensive framework is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the proposed metrics to three types of solar forecasting improvements using a design of experiments methodology, in conjunction with response surface and sensitivity analysis methods. The results show that the developed metrics can efficiently evaluate the quality of solar forecasts, and assess the economic and reliability impact of improved solar forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H. F.; Banunarayanan, V.
Remote Fault Detection of Building HVAC System Using a Global Optimization Program
fault detection method using the global optimization program Solver� (Frontline Systems, 2000) coupled to a simplified simulation program, which is a coding of the ASHRAE 'Simplified Energy Analysis Procedure' (Knebel, 1983). This approach uses...
Lee, S. U.; Claridge, D. E.
12.540 Principles of the Global Positioning System, Spring 2003
Herring, T. (Thomas)
System Optimization - The Global Approach to HVAC Control
System Optimization is a new approach to HVAC control as implemented by Energy Management Control Systems. System Optimization is defined as electronic building control strategies which treat a building's HVAC components as a complete energy...
Thielman, D. E.
Clustering as a prerequisite for chimera states in globally coupled systems
The coexistence of coherently and incoherently oscillating parts in a system of identical oscillators with symmetrical coupling, i.e., a chimera state, is even observable with uniform global coupling. We address the question of the prerequisites for these states to occur in globally coupled systems. By analyzing two different types of chimera states found for nonlinear global coupling, we show that a clustering mechanism to split the ensemble into two groups is needed as a first step. In fact, the chimera states inherit properties from the cluster states in which they originate. Remarkably, they can exist in parameter space between cluster and chaotic states, as well as between cluster and synchronized states.
Lennart Schmidt; Katharina Krischer
Impact of PV forecasts uncertainty in batteries management in microgrids
-- Photovoltaic systems, Batteries, Forecasting I. INTRODUCTION This paper presents first results of a study Energies and Energy Systems Sophia Antipolis, France email@example.com Abstract production forecast algorithm is used in combination with a battery schedule optimisation algorithm. The size
Probabilistic manpower forecasting
PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas ASSAM University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May, 1966 Major Subject...: Computer Science and Statistics PROBABILISTIC MANPOWER FORECASTING A Thesis By JAMES FITZHUGH KOONCE Submitted to the Graduate College of the Texas A@M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE May...
Koonce, James Fitzhugh
TMA Global Wind Energy Systems | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home5b9fcbce19 No revisionEnvReviewNonInvasiveExplorationUT-g GrantAtlas (PACAOpenSummersideJumpSyria: EnergyTESTTMA Global Wind
GWPS Global Wind Power Systems | Open Energy Information
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home5b9fcbce19 No revision has beenFfe2fb55-352f-473b-a2dd-50ae8b27f0a6TheoreticalFuelCell Energy IncFOR EGSGWPS Global Wind Power
A globally convergent steering algorithm for regular nonholonomic systems
unless each trailer is hinged to the midpoint of the previous wheel axle -- a particular arrangement-called plate-ball system, does not admit a chained-form transformation. More in general, for 2-input systems
Sontag, Eduardo
Impacts of Improved Day-Ahead Wind Forecasts on Power Grid Operations: September 2011
This study analyzed the potential benefits of improving the accuracy (reducing the error) of day-ahead wind forecasts on power system operations, assuming that wind forecasts were used for day ahead security constrained unit commitment.
Piwko, R.; Jordan, G.
and mapped. tools such as LTSA will be used to model the system and verify whether the specifications
Austin, Mark
Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing
1062�1088. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Chaudhuri, P. (1996): �OnKingdom. MULTIVARIATE FORECASTS Kirchg�ssner, G. , and U. K.2005): �Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under
Komunjer, Ivana; OWYANG, MICHAEL
Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint
The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.
Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.
The global distribution of large subaerial distributary fluvial systems
to the area of the upstream drainage basin, but is related to the size of the downstream basin. This sample of systems occurs in a variety of climates and in two different geologic settings - foreland basins and half graben. The rivers on all systems...
Gwynn, David Wilkinson
Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) engineering and foundations for global design.
Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which must be recognized and reckoned with to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Design within CASoS requires the fostering of a new discipline, CASoS Engineering, and the building of capability to support it. Towards this primary objective, we created the Phoenix Pilot as a crucible from which systemization of the new discipline could emerge. Using a wide range of applications, Phoenix has begun building both theoretical foundations and capability for: the integration of Applications to continuously build common understanding and capability; a Framework for defining problems, designing and testing solutions, and actualizing these solutions within the CASoS of interest; and an engineering Environment required for 'the doing' of CASoS Engineering. In a secondary objective, we applied CASoS Engineering principles to begin to build a foundation for design in context of Global CASoS
Brodsky, Nancy S.; Finley, Patrick D.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Brown, Theresa Jean; Linebarger, John Michael; Moore, Thomas W.; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Mitchell, Michael David; Ames, Arlo Leroy
Design and global optimization of high-efficiency thermophotovoltaic systems
Despite their great promise, small experimental thermophotovoltaic (TPV) systems at 1000 K generally exhibit extremely low power conversion efficiencies (approximately 1%), due to heat losses such as thermal emission of ...
Bermel, Peter A.
ISO 50001: A Global Energy Management System Standard
ISO 50001:2011 provides benefits for any organization to establish a framework to manage and improve energy consumption. The framework of ISO 50001:2011 enables organizations to establish the systems and processes necessary to improve energy...
Chowdhury, N.
to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized prop- erties from hot to cold places, thereby producing the kinetic energy of the fluid itself. His generalTHE SECOND LAW OF THERMODYNAMICS AND THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM: A REVIEW OF THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY
Lorenz, Ralph D.
Estimation of global posteriors and forward-backward training of hybrid HMM/ANN systems.�
The results of our research presented in this paper are two-fold. First, an estimation of global posteriors is formalized in the framework of hybrid HMM/ANN systems. It is shown that hybrid HMM/ANN systems, in which the ANN part estimates local...
Hennebert, J; Ris, C; Bourlard, Herve; Renals, Steve; Morgan, Nelson
Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large impacts on agri-
be crucial in the tropics, where most agriculture is in rain-fed systems and climate change has a potentially of Biological Sciences. Synergies between Agricultural Intensification and Climate Change Could CreateArticles Global climate change is currently affecting many ecological systems and may have large
1 GLOBAL OPTIMIZATION OF MULTIPHASE FLOW NETWORKS IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION SYSTEMS MSc. Hans in an oil production system is developed. Each well may be manipulated by injecting lift gas and adjusting in the maximum oil flow rate, water flow rate, liquid flow rate, and gas flow rate. The wells may also
Johansen, Tor Arne
A Global Steering Method for Driftless Control-Affine Systems
in chained-form unless each trailer is hinged to the midpoint of the previous wheel axle, an unusual in this category, the so-called plate-ball system, does not allow any chained-form transformation and is not flat
Global chassis control using braking and suspension systems P. Gaspar
. Poussot-Vassal , O. Sename , L. Dugard *Computer and Automation Research Institute, Hungary **Laboratoire active control mechanisms are applied in road vehicles to solve different control tasks, see e.g. [1,5,6,7]. As an example, the suspension system is the main tool to achieve comfort and road holding for a vehicle whilst
3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast
HESSD 3, 21452173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables F. Laio and S. Tamea DITIC Department2173, 2006 Probabilistic forecast verification F. Laio and S. Tamea Title Page Abstract Introduction
4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and
OSD 4, 189212, 2007 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Science Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani 1 , N. Pinardi 2 , C. Fratianni 1 Forecast and analysis assessment through skill scores M. Tonani et al. Title Page Abstract Introduction
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary
Forecast Technical Document Technical Glossary A document defining some of the terms used in the 2011 Production Forecast technical documentation. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley in the Forecast documentation. In some cases, the terms and the descriptions are "industry standard", in others
TRAVEL DEMAND AND RELIABLE FORECASTS FOR TRANSIT MARK FILIPI, AICP PTP 23rd Annual Transportation transportation projects § Develop and maintain Regional Travel Demand Model § Develop forecast socio in cooperative review during all phases of travel demand forecasting 4 #12;Cooperative Review Should Include
Consensus Coal Production Forecast for
in the consensus forecast produced in 2006, primarily from the decreased demand as a result of the current nationalConsensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 2009-2030 Prepared for the West Virginia Summary 1 Recent Developments 2 Consensus Coal Production Forecast for West Virginia 10 Risks
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST METHODS REPORT Companion Report to the California Energy Demand 2006-2016 Staff Energy Demand Forecast Report STAFFREPORT June 2005 CEC-400 .......................................................................................................................................1-1 ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING AT THE CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION: AN OVERVIEW
Demand Forecasting of New Products
Demand Forecasting of New Products Using Attribute Analysis Marina Kang A thesis submitted Abstract This thesis is a study into the demand forecasting of new products (also referred to as Stock upon currently employed new-SKU demand forecasting methods which involve the processing of large
Sun, Yu
Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting
EMGT 835 FIELD PROJECT: Improving Inventory Control Using Forecasting By Juan Mario Balandran email@example.com Master of Science The University of Kansas Fall Semester, 2005 An EMGT Field Project report submitted...............................................................................................................................................10 Current Inventory Forecast Process ...........................................................................................10 Development of Alternative Forecast Process...
Balandran, Juan
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation
Probabilistic Forecast Calibration Using ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Reforecasts. Part II: Precipitation for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom JEFFREY S. WHITAKER NOAA/Earth System Research As a companion to Part I, which discussed the calibration of probabilistic 2-m temperature forecasts using large
Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint
One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.
to the following nonlinear second order hyperbolic system: utt - n j=1 bj (xu)xj + n j,k=1 Kjk uxjxk + Lut = 0. (1-vector functions of v = (v1, . . . , vn) Rmn where vj Rm corresponds to uxj ; Kjk (t) are smooth m �? m real matrix functions of t 0 satisfying Kjk (t)T = Kkj (t) for each j, k and t; L is an m �? m real symmetric
Kawashima, Shuichi
Comparison of Bottom-Up and Top-Down Forecasts: Vision Industry Energy Forecasts with ITEMS and NEMS
Comparisons are made of energy forecasts using results from the Industrial module of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and an industrial economic-engineering model called the Industrial Technology and Energy Modeling System (ITEMS), a model...
Roop, J. M.; Dahowski, R. T
CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update -April 2013
CSUF Economic Outlook and Forecasts MidYear Update - April 2013 Anil Puri & Mira Farka Mihaylo College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton U.S. Economic Outlook to the forecast and a are-up in the region can easily derail the global economic recovery. Nonetheless
de Lijser, Peter
Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 11 UnderstandingGlobalClimateChange 2
Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 11 #12;UnderstandingGlobalClimateChange 2 A Systems Approach to Look at Earth 1.1 AdifferentwayofunderstandingEarth Notes1.1.1 If we are going to look at Earth and the house would end up either being too hot or too cold. #12;Looking at Earth as a System Chapter 13 Notes1
Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION
Fuel Price Forecasts INTRODUCTION Fuel prices affect electricity planning in two primary ways and water heating, and other end-uses as well. Fuel prices also influence electricity supply and price because oil, coal, and natural gas are potential fuels for electricity generation. Natural gas
Quantifying PV power output variability,� Solar Energy, vol.each solar sen at node i, P(t) the total power output of theSolar Forecasting Historically, traditional power generation technologies such as fossil and nu- clear power which were designed to run in stable output
Advanced Numerical Weather Prediction Techniques for Solar Irradiance Forecasting : : Statistical, Data-Assimilation, and Ensemble Forecasting
Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Edition, Editors:Forecasting and Resource Assessment, 1 st Ed.. Editor: Jan
Mathiesen, Patrick James
Importance of bioenergy markets for the development of the global energy system
Importance of bioenergy markets for the development of the global energy system Nicklas Forsell, Bioenergy, TIAM-FR model, bioenergy markets, climate policies Overview Fossil fuels such as oil, coal international bioenergy markets are still in their infancy, international trade of biofuels, wood pellets
Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1
Sea Ice in the Global Climate System Kenneth M. Golden1 , Elizabeth Hunke2 , Cecilia Bitz3 Figure 2. The Antarctic sea ice pack with an open lead in the distance. (K. M. Golden) Figure 1. Pancake ice in the Southern Ocean off the coast of East Antarctica. (K. M. Golden
Golden, Kenneth M.
Detecting Global Predicates in Distributed Systems with Clocks Scott D. Stoller
detection modalities, i.e., 3 meanings of \\predicate held during a computation", namely: PossdbDetecting Global Predicates in Distributed Systems with Clocks Scott D. Stoller Computer Science"). This paper de nes these modalities and gives e cient algorithms for detecting them. The algorithms are based
Design and global optimization of high-efficiency solar thermal systems
Design and global optimization of high-efficiency solar thermal systems with tungsten cermets David, Massachusetts 02139, USA firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract: Solar thermal, thermoelectric, and thermophotovoltaic (TPV by selective solar absorbers and TPV selective emitters. To improve these critical components, we study a class
Soljaèiæ, Marin
A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific
Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents - key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific - from 5{sup o}S to 10{sup o}S and 170{sup o}E to 150{sup o}W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.
Liu H.; Lin W.; Liu, X.; Zhang, M.
11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation
and in situ observations, for NWP, ocean forecasting, ecosystem applications, and climate research. BY C forecasting, military and defence operations, validating or forcing ocean and atmospheric models, ecosystem11971197AUGUST 2007AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY | The Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
Merchant, Chris
Flood management in a complex river basin with a real-time decision support system based on hydrological forecasts
, Portes du Scex,!) and in the hydropower plants "If a risk of overflowing exists, the Decision Support System MINDS proposes the optimal hydropower plants management for flood peak reduction PREDICTING FLOODS! ...taking profit of the existing hydropower schemes for reducing flood damages ...warning authorities
A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model
At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domain has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.
Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Pappenberger, Florian; Phanthuwongpakdee, Kay; Hall, Amanda C.; Bates, Paul D.
Description of Atmospheric Conditions at the Pierre Auger Observatory using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS)
Atmospheric conditions at the site of a cosmic ray observatory must be known for reconstructing observed extensive air showers. The Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) is a global atmospheric model predicated on meteorological measurements and numerical weather predictions. GDAS provides altitude-dependent profiles of the main state variables of the atmosphere like temperature, pressure, and humidity. The original data and their application to the air shower reconstruction of the Pierre Auger Observatory are described. By comparisons with radiosonde and weather station measurements obtained on-site in Malargue and averaged monthly models, the utility of the GDAS data is shown.
Abreu, P.; /Lisbon, IST; Aglietta, M.; /Turin U. /INFN, Turin; Ahlers, M.; /Wisconsin U., Madison; Ahn, E.J.; /Fermilab; Albuquerque, I.F.M.; /Sao Paulo U.; Allard, D.; /APC, Paris; Allekotte, I.; /Buenos Aires, CONICET; Allen, J.; /New York U.; Allison, P.; /Ohio State U.; Almela, A.; /Natl. Tech. U., San Nicolas /Buenos Aires, CONICET; Alvarez Castillo, J.; /Mexico U., ICN /Santiago de Compostela U.
Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes
Journey data based arrival forecasting for bicycle hire schemes Marcel C. Guenther and Jeremy T. The global emergence of city bicycle hire schemes has re- cently received a lot of attention of future bicycle migration trends, as these assist service providers to ensure availability of bicycles
Imperial College, London
Forecasting oilfield economic performance
This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended.
Bradley, M.E. (Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)); Wood, A.R.O. (BP Exploration, Anchorage, AK (United States))
Online short-term solar power forecasting
This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model. (author)
Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, Richard Pedersens Plads, Technical University of Denmark, Building 321, DK-2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg [ENFOR A/S, Lyngsoe Alle 3, DK-2970 Hoersholm (Denmark)
The Causes of Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-Systems Approach
effect of energy consumption on trade globalization; but notvariables include: trade globalization, energy consumption,Democracy Constant Energy Consumption ? Trade Globalization
Kwon, Roy
A. 2000. ?Globalization of the Economy. ? National Bureau ofof Trade Globalization: A Political-Economy and World-of Trade Globalization: A Political Economy and World-
Global search tool for the Advanced Photon Source Integrated Relational Model of Installed Systems (IRMIS) database.
Quock, D. E. R.; Cianciarulo, M. B.; APS Engineering Support Division; Purdue Univ.
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume
Forecast Technical Document Growing Stock Volume Forecasts A document describing how growing stock (`standing') volume is handled in the 2011 Production Forecast. Tom Jenkins Robert Matthews Ewan Mackie Lesley Halsall #12;PF2011 Growing stock volume forecasts Background A forecast of standing volume (or
Hydrometeorological aspects of the Real-Time Ultrafinescale Forecast Support during the Special Observing Period of MAP Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7(6), 877889 (2003) EGU
-Italian border region were predicted correctly by data from the numerical weather models linked application of numerical weather prediction data to forecast flows over a very large, multinational domain points, covering the whole of theAlpine region. These high resolution numerical weather prediction data
U.S. Regional Demand Forecasts Using NEMS and GIS
The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a multi-sector, integrated model of the U.S. energy system put out by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. NEMS is used to produce the annual 20-year forecast of U.S. energy use aggregated to the nine-region census division level. The research objective was to disaggregate this regional energy forecast to the county level for select forecast years, for use in a more detailed and accurate regional analysis of energy usage across the U.S. The process of disaggregation using a geographic information system (GIS) was researched and a model was created utilizing available population forecasts and climate zone data. The model's primary purpose was to generate an energy demand forecast with greater spatial resolution than what is currently produced by NEMS, and to produce a flexible model that can be used repeatedly as an add-on to NEMS in which detailed analysis can be executed exogenously with results fed back into the NEMS data flow. The methods developed were then applied to the study data to obtain residential and commercial electricity demand forecasts. The model was subjected to comparative and statistical testing to assess predictive accuracy. Forecasts using this model were robust and accurate in slow-growing, temperate regions such as the Midwest and Mountain regions. Interestingly, however, the model performed with less accuracy in the Pacific and Northwest regions of the country where population growth was more active. In the future more refined methods will be necessary to improve the accuracy of these forecasts. The disaggregation method was written into a flexible tool within the ArcGIS environment which enables the user to output the results in five year intervals over the period 2000-2025. In addition, the outputs of this tool were used to develop a time-series simulation showing the temporal changes in electricity forecasts in terms of absolute, per capita, and density of demand.
Cohen, Jesse A.; Edwards, Jennifer L.; Marnay, Chris
Price forecasting for notebook computers.
??This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a� (more)
Rutherford, Derek Paul
UWIG Forecasting Workshop -- Albany (Presentation)
This presentation describes the importance of good forecasting for variable generation, the different approaches used by industry, and the importance of validated high-quality data.
Lew, D.
Arnold Schwarzenegger INTEGRATED FORECAST AND
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL
Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.
Conservation The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast
& Resources Creating Mr. Toad's Wild Ride for the PNW's Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad's Wild RideNorthwest Power and Conservation Council The Northwest ForecastThe Northwest Forecast �� Energy EfficiencyEnergy Efficiency Dominates ResourceDominates Resource DevelopmentDevelopment Tom EckmanTom Eckman
1 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT EARNINGS FORECAST QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM FRENCH IPOS Anis attributes, ownership retained, auditor quality, and underwriter reputation and management earnings forecast quality measured by management earnings forecast accuracy and bias. Using 117 French IPOs, we find
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST OF 2007 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2006 CEC-400....................................................................... .................11 Tables Table 1: Revised versus September 2005 Peak Demand Forecast ......................... 2.............................................................................................. 10 #12;Introduction and Background This document describes staff's updated 2007 peak demand forecasts
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand.Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product estimates. Margaret Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand Robert P. Oglesby Executive Director #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch
Steam System Forecasting and Management
by manipulation of operating schedules to avoid steam balances that result in steam venting, off gas-flaring, excessive condensing on extraction/condensing turbines, and ineffective use of extraction turbines. For example, during the fourth quarter of 1981... minimum turndown levels. Several boilers would have oeen shut down; by-product fuel gas would have been flared; and surplus low level steam would have been vented to the atmosphere. Several scenarios were studied with SFC and evaluated based...
Mongrue, D. M.; Wittke, D. O.
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 6 Demand................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Regional-seasonal weather forecasting
In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)
Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.
Global Predictions
demographics, socioeconomic factors and public health information. GIS technology is a computerized system that can capture, store, process and analyze spatial data. The lab uses GIS to produce the Texas Spatial Information System Web site. The Web site... to forecast change tx H2O | pg. 22 tx H2O | pg. 23 KBDI represents dryness and wetness in Texas counties on a scale of 0 (no moisture depletion) to 800 (absolutely dry conditions) and are used to estimate forest fire potential. A county with an index...
Swyden, Courtney
Ris Energy Report 5 Global drivers for transformation of energy systems 3 Global drivers for transformation of energy
, falling oil prices and increasing reliance on natural gas and coal, combined with stable market conditions in the global energy market of rapidly-expanding national economies, notably China and India. Together; energy efficiency, nuclear and clean fossil technologies all have a role to play, not withstanding
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast uncertainty
Atmospheric Lagrangian coherent structures considering unresolved turbulence and forecast structures Stochastic trajectory Stochastic FTLE field Ensemble forecasting Uncertainty analysis a b s t r of the forecast FTLE fields is analyzed using ensemble forecasting. Unavoidable errors of the forecast velocity
Ross, Shane
Experimental results on the design for the APS PID global orbit control system.
The Advanced Photon Source third generation synchrotrons light source needs a stabilized particle beam position to produce high brightness and low emittance radiation. Global orbit correction control is introduced and is utilized to satisfy the demanding needs of the accelerator. This paper presents the experimental results for determining an effective and optimal controller to meet the global orbit correction requirements. These requirements include frequency/time domain demands consisting of vibrational noise attenuation, limiting of controller gains for stability and improving the system time response. Experiments were conducted with a digital signal processor implementing various PID sets to make comparisons between simulations and experiments. Measurements at these PID sets supported the results of software simulation.
Chung, Y.; Kirchman, J. A.
Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.
Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios (with spatial and/or temporal dependence). Statistical approaches to uncertainty forecasting basically consist of estimating the uncertainty based on observed forecasting errors. Quantile regression (QR) is currently a commonly used approach in uncertainty forecasting. In Chapter 3, we propose new statistical approaches to the uncertainty estimation problem by employing kernel density forecast (KDF) methods. We use two estimators in both offline and time-adaptive modes, namely, the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) and Quantilecopula (QC) estimators. We conduct detailed tests of the new approaches using QR as a benchmark. One of the major issues in wind power generation are sudden and large changes of wind power output over a short period of time, namely ramping events. In Chapter 4, we perform a comparative study of existing definitions and methodologies for ramp forecasting. We also introduce a new probabilistic method for ramp event detection. The method starts with a stochastic algorithm that generates wind power scenarios, which are passed through a high-pass filter for ramp detection and estimation of the likelihood of ramp events to happen. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents the results of the application of ITL training criteria to deterministic WPF; Chapter 3 reports the study on probabilistic WPF, including new contributions to wind power uncertainty forecasting; Chapter 4 presents a new method to predict and visualize ramp events, comparing it with state-of-the-art methodologies; Chapter 5 briefly summarizes the main findings and contributions of this report.
Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
Global Clock, Physical Time Order and Pending Period Analysis in Multiprocessor Systems
In multiprocessor systems, various problems are treated with Lamport's logical clock and the resultant logical time orders between operations. However, one often needs to face the high complexities caused by the lack of logical time order information in practice. In this paper, we utilize the \\emph{global clock} to infuse the so-called \\emph{pending period} to each operation in a multiprocessor system, where the pending period is a time interval that contains the performed time of the operation. Further, we define the \\emph{physical time order} for any two operations with disjoint pending periods. The physical time order is obeyed by any real execution in multiprocessor systems due to that it is part of the truly happened operation orders restricted by global clock, and it is then proven to be independent and consistent with traditional logical time orders. The above novel yet fundamental concepts enables new effective approaches for analyzing multiprocessor systems, which are named \\emph{pending period analy...
Chen, Yunji; Hu, Weiwu
The Global Economy and the Latino Populations in the United States: A World Systems Approach
a result of the globalization of the economy In other words,to the impact of the globalization of the economy on a stillcaused by the globalization of the economy � the garment and
Robinson, William I.
Turning quicksand into bedrock : understanding the dynamic effects of disease-focused global health aid on health systems
This thesis asks one basic question: how do "vertical" disease- or intervention-focused global health programs impact the underlying health systems of the nations they serve? Vertical programs-health aid focused on a ...
Newkirk, Brian J
A survey on wind power ramp forecasting.
The increasing use of wind power as a source of electricity poses new challenges with regard to both power production and load balance in the electricity grid. This new source of energy is volatile and highly variable. The only way to integrate such power into the grid is to develop reliable and accurate wind power forecasting systems. Electricity generated from wind power can be highly variable at several different timescales: sub-hourly, hourly, daily, and seasonally. Wind energy, like other electricity sources, must be scheduled. Although wind power forecasting methods are used, the ability to predict wind plant output remains relatively low for short-term operation. Because instantaneous electrical generation and consumption must remain in balance to maintain grid stability, wind power's variability can present substantial challenges when large amounts of wind power are incorporated into a grid system. A critical issue is ramp events, which are sudden and large changes (increases or decreases) in wind power. This report presents an overview of current ramp definitions and state-of-the-art approaches in ramp event forecasting.
Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Matias, L.; Botterud, A.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)
PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY
1 PROBLEMS OF FORECAST1 Dmitry KUCHARAVY firstname.lastname@example.com Roland DE GUIO roland for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast
Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga,
Forecast Combination With Outlier Protection Gang Chenga, , Yuhong Yanga,1 a313 Ford Hall, 224 Church St SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Abstract Numerous forecast combination schemes with distinct on combining forecasts with minimizing the occurrence of forecast outliers in mind. An unnoticed phenomenon
Yuhong, Yang
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Department of Economics
Assessing Forecast Accuracy Measures Zhuo Chen Department of Economics Heady Hall 260 Iowa State forecast accuracy measures. In the theoretical direction, for comparing two forecasters, only when the errors are stochastically ordered, the ranking of the forecasts is basically independent of the form
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 2: Electricity Demand by Utility ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections
REVISED CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 20122022 Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work Sheridan provided the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid
Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model
1 1 Current status of ForecastCurrent status of Forecast 2005 EPACT is in the model 2007 Federal prices are being inputted into the model 2 Sales forecast Select yearsSales forecast Select years --Draft 0.53% Irrigation 2.76% Annual Growth Rates Preliminary Electricity ForecastAnnual Growth Rates
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias? François DOSSOU allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi
Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts
Revised Economic andRevised Economic and Demand ForecastsDemand Forecasts April 14, 2009 Massoud,000 MW #12;6 Demand Forecasts Price Effect (prior to conservation) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30 Jourabchi #12;2 Changes since the Last Draft ForecastChanges since the Last Draft Forecast Improved
Model Development Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models
developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCMbased Earth system model
K. Tachiiri; J. C. Hargreaves; J. D. Annan; A. Oka; A. Abe-ouchi; M. Kawamiya
Price forecasting for notebook computers
This paper proposes a four-step approach that uses statistical regression to forecast notebook computer prices. Notebook computer price is related to constituent features over a series of time periods, and the rates of change in the influence...
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN with primary contributions in the area of decision support for reservoir planning and management Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project
Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor INTEGRATED FORECAST AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT (INFORM) FOR NORTHERN: California Energy Commission Energy-Related Environmental Research Joseph O' Hagan Contract Manager Joseph O' Hagan Project Manager Kelly Birkinshaw Program Area Manager ENERGY-RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH Martha
Value of Wind Power Forecasting
This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.
Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Jordan, G.; Piwko, R.
Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Navin Sharmaa,
Leveraging Weather Forecasts in Renewable Energy Systems Navin Sharmaa, , Jeremy Gummesonb , David, Binghamton, NY 13902 Abstract Systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their us- age to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic, since
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION0 Annual Update to the Forecasted
Values in TWh forthe Year2022 Formula Mid Demand Forecast Renewable Net High Demand Forecast Renewable Net Low Demand Forecast Renewable Net #12;CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION5 Demand Forecast · Retail Sales Forecast from California Energy Demand 2012 2022(CED 2011), Adopted Forecast* Form 1.1c · Demand Forecast
An object-oriented process tracking system for a distributed system without global clock
mechanisms of information collection, such as the client-server model with 4. 3 BSD sockets, message queues and RPCs, and the display of the infor- mation in a graphical manner using the X window system. In designing any process tracking system.... An application may be executed on another machine, sending requests across the network to the particular display and receiving keyboard and pointer events from the system controlling the display. The program that controls each display is known as a server. TCP...
Viswanathan, Rajeswaran
Weather forecasting : the next generation : the potential use and implementation of ensemble forecasting
This thesis discusses ensemble forecasting, a promising new weather forecasting technique, from various viewpoints relating not only to its meteorological aspects but also to its user and policy aspects. Ensemble forecasting ...
Goto, Susumu
Abstract--This paper presents novel Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based flight inspection systems
inspection systems (FIS) that outperform current flight inspection systems in terms of cost, efficiency, and integrity. The GNSS-based FIS are the WAAS-based FIS and the stand-alone GPS-based FIS. These GNSS-based FIS are onboard and do not use an INS or external reference stations at the airport. Instead, the WAAS-based FIS
Stanford University
Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report...
Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern Study Area Final Report Wind Forecast Improvement Project Southern...
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL DEMAND FORECAST FORMS AND INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED Table of Contents General Instructions for Demand Forecast Submittals.............................................................................. 4 Protocols for Submitted Demand Forecasts
Applying Bayesian Forecasting to Predict New Customers' Heating Oil Demand.
??This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster� (more)
Sakauchi, Tsuginosuke
Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results; Preprint
Historically, a number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operational decisions. These studies have shown that there could be large cost savings gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter-term (0 to 6-hour-ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and to determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators, hereafter referred to as the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP). In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined, then the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed.
Orwig, K.; Hodge, B. M.; Brinkman, G.; Ela, E.; Milligan, M.; Banunarayanan, V.; Nasir, S.; Freedman, J.
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2002), 128, pp. 285321 In uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from
and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems By R. E. MORSS¤ and K. A. EMANUEL Massachusetts Institute to improve individual forecasts have shown a mix of positive, negative, and neutral results. In this study, the in uence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors is explored in idealized systems
Emanuel, Kerry A.
Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System
This paper compares the theoretical specification of production and technical change across the partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. The two modeling approaches have different theoretical underpinnings concerning the scope of economic activity they capture and how they represent technology and the behavior of supply and demand in markets. This paper focuses on their different specifications of technology and supply behavior, comparing their theoretical and empirical treatments. While the models differ widely in their specifications of technology, both within and between the PE and CGE classes of models, we find that the theoretical responsiveness of supply to changes in prices can be similar, depending on parameter choices that define the behavior of supply functions over the domain of applicability defined by the common scenarios used in the AgMIP comparisons. In particular, we compare the theoretical specification of supply in CGE models with neoclassical production functions and PE models that focus on land and crop yields in agriculture. In practice, however, comparability of results given parameter choices is an empirical question, and the models differ in their sensitivity to variations in specification. To illustrate the issues, sensitivity analysis is done with one global CGE model, MAGNET, to indicate how the results vary with different specification of technical change, and how they compare with the results from PE models.
Robinson, Sherman; van Meijl, Hans; Willenbockel, Dirk; Valin, Hugo; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Sands, Ronald; Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Havlik, Petr; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Tabeau, Andrzej; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Schmitz, Christoph; Dietrich, Jan P.; von Lampe, Martin
Warming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global average since the 1960s
, downward longwave radiation, and therefore net heat flux. The faster warming of the arctic iceocean systemWarming of the arctic ice-ocean system is faster than the global average since the 1960s Jinlun Zhang Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Laboratory, College of Ocean and Fishery Sciences
Zhang, Jinlun
Non-equilibrium quantum systems: Divergence between global and local descriptions
Even photosynthesis -- the most basic natural phenomenon underlying Life on Earth -- involves the non-trivial processing of excitations at the pico- and femtosecond scales during light-harvesting. The desire to understand such natural phenomena, as well as interpret the output from ultrafast experimental probes, creates an urgent need for accurate quantitative theories of open quantum systems. However it is unclear how best to generalize the well-established assumptions of an isolated system, particularly under non-equilibrium conditions. Here we compare two popular approaches: a description in terms of a direct product of the states of each individual system (i.e. a local approach) versus the use of new states resulting from diagonalizing the whole Hamiltonian (i.e. a global approach). We show that their equivalence fails when the system is open, in particular under the experimentally ubiquitous condition of a temperature gradient. By solving for the steady-state populations and calculating the heat flux as a test observable, we uncover stark differences between the formulations. This divergence highlights the need to establish rigorous ranges of applicability for such methods in modeling nanoscale transfer phenomena -- including during the light-harvesting process in photosynthesis.
Pedro D. Manrique; Ferney Rodriguez; Luis Quiroga; Neil F. Johnson
Use of global navigation satellite systems for monitoring deformations of water-development works
The feasibility of using global radio-navigation satellite systems (GNSS) to improve functional safety of high-liability water-development works - dams at hydroelectric power plants, and, consequently, the safety of the population in the surrounding areas is examined on the basis of analysis of modern publications. Characteristics for determination of displacements and deformations with use of GNSS, and also in a complex with other types of measurements, are compared. It is demonstrated that combined monitoring of deformations of the ground surface of the region, and engineering and technical structures is required to ensure the functional safety of HPP, and reliable metrologic assurance of measurements is also required to obtain actual characteristics of the accuracy and effectiveness of GNSS observations.
Kaftan, V. I. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Geophysical Center (Russian Federation); Ustinov, A. V. [JSC Institut Gidropreoekt (Russian Federation)
Modeling the Oil Transition: A Summary of the Proceedings of the DOE/EPA Workshop on the Economic and Environmental Implications of Global Energy Transitions
The global energy system faces sweeping changes in the next few decades, with potentially critical implications for the global economy and the global environment. It is important that global institutions have the tools necessary to predict, analyze and plan for such massive change. This report summarizes the proceedings of an international workshop concerning methods of forecasting, analyzing, and planning for global energy transitions and their economic and environmental consequences. A specific case, it focused on the transition from conventional to unconventional oil and other energy sources likely to result from a peak in non-OPEC and/or global production of conventional oil. Leading energy models from around the world in government, academia and the private sector met, reviewed the state-of-the-art of global energy modeling and evaluated its ability to analyze and predict large-scale energy transitions.
Greene, David L [ORNL
Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)
This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.
Session: Short-term forecasting of wind power (BT2.5) Track: Technical
Session: Short-term forecasting of wind power (BT2.5) Track: Technical BEST PRACTICE IN THE USE) Armines / Ecole des Mines Short-term forecasting of wind power for about 48 hours in advance is an established technique by now. Any utility getting over a few percent wind power penetration is buying a system
Preliminary Concept of Operations for a Global Cylinder Identification and Monitoring System
This report describes a preliminary concept of operations for a Global Cylinder Identification and Monitoring System that could improve the efficiency of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in conducting its current inspection activities and could provide a capability to substantially increase its ability to detect credible diversion scenarios and undeclared production pathways involving UF6 cylinders. There exist concerns that a proliferant State with access to enrichment technology could obtain a cylinder containing natural or low-enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and produce a significant quantity (SQ)1 of highly enriched uranium in as little as 30 days. The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) through the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative sponsored a multi-laboratory team to develop an integrated system that provides for detecting scenarios involving 1) diverting an entire declared cylinder for enrichment at a clandestine facility, 2) misusing a declared cylinder at a safeguarded facility, and 3) using an undeclared cylinder at a safeguarded facility. An important objective in developing this integrated system was to improve the timeliness for detecting the cylinder diversion and undeclared production scenarios. Developing this preliminary concept required in-depth analyses of current operational and safeguards practices at conversion, enrichment, and fuel fabrication facilities. The analyses evaluated the processing, movement, and storage of cylinders at the facilities; the movement of cylinders between facilities (including cylinder fabrication); and the misuse of safeguarded facilities.
Whitaker, J. M. [ORNL; White-Horton, J. L. [ORNL; Morgan, J. B. [InSolves Associates
The global unified parallel file system (GUPFS) project: FY 2003 activities and results
The Global Unified Parallel File System (GUPFS) project is a multiple-phase project at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing (NERSC) Center whose goal is to provide a scalable, high-performance, high-bandwidth, shared file system for all of the NERSC production computing and support systems. The primary purpose of the GUPFS project is to make the scientific users more productive as they conduct advanced scientific research at NERSC by simplifying the scientists' data management tasks and maximizing storage and data availability. This is to be accomplished through the use of a shared file system providing a unified file namespace, operating on consolidated shared storage that is accessible by all the NERSC production computing and support systems. In order to successfully deploy a scalable high-performance shared file system with consolidated disk storage, three major emerging technologies must be brought together: (1) shared/cluster file systems software, (2) cost-effective, high-performance storage area network (SAN) fabrics, and (3) high-performance storage devices. Although they are evolving rapidly, these emerging technologies individually are not targeted towards the needs of scientific high-performance computing (HPC). The GUPFS project is in the process of assessing these emerging technologies to determine the best combination of solutions for a center-wide shared file system, to encourage the development of these technologies in directions needed for HPC, particularly at NERSC, and to then put them into service. With the development of an evaluation methodology and benchmark suites, and with the updating of the GUPFS testbed system, the project did a substantial number of investigations and evaluations during FY 2003. The investigations and evaluations involved many vendors and products. From our evaluation of these products, we have found that most vendors and many of the products are more focused on the commercial market. Most vendors lack the understanding of, or do not have the resources to pay enough attention to, the needs of high-performance computing environments such as NERSC.
Butler, Gregory F.; Baird William P.; Lee, Rei C.; Tull, Craig E.; Welcome, Michael L.; Whitney Cary L.
Management forecast credibility and underreaction to news
In this paper, we first document evidence of underreaction to management forecast news. We then hypothesize that the credibility of the forecast influences the magnitude of this underreaction. Relying on evidence that more ...
Ng, Jeffrey
Management Forecast Quality and Capital Investment Decisions
Corporate investment decisions require managers to forecast expected future cash flows from potential investments. Although these forecasts are a critical component of successful investing, they are not directly observable ...
Goodman, Theodore H.
FORECASTING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII Jayant SathayeFORECASTING THE ROLF OF RENEWABLES IN HAWAII J Sa and Henrythe Conservation Role of Renewables November 18, 1980 Page 2
Sathaye, Jayant
Next Generation Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Power Overview of the ANEMOS Project.
of difficulties to the power system operation. This is due to the fluctuating nature of wind generation to the management of wind generation. Accurate and reliable forecasting systems of the wind production are widely
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles
Improving week two forecasts with multi-model re-forecast ensembles Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Xue Wei NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Fr´ed´eric Vitart Seasonal Forecasting Group, ECMWF dataset of ensemble 're-forecasts' from a single model can significantly improve the skill
Whitaker, Jeffrey S.
Final Technical Report for "Radiative Heating Associated with Tropical Convective Cloud Systems: Its Importance at Meso and Global Scales"
Heating associated with tropical cloud systems drive the global circulation. The overall research objectives of this project were to i) further quantify and understand the importance of heating in tropical convective cloud systems with innovative observational techniques, and ii) use global models to determine the large-scale circulation response to variability in tropical heating profiles, including anvil and cirrus cloud radiative forcing. The innovative observational techniques used a diversity of radar systems to create a climatology of vertical velocities associated with the full tropical convective cloud spectrum along with a dissection of the of the total heating profile of tropical cloud systems into separate components (i.e., the latent, radiative, and eddy sensible heating). These properties were used to validate storm-scale and global climate models (GCMs) and were further used to force two different types of GCMs (one with and one without interactive physics). While radiative heating was shown to account for about 20% of the total heating and did not have a strong direct response on the global circulation, the indirect response was important via its impact on convection, esp. in how radiative heating impacts the tilt of heating associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a phenomenon that accounts for most tropical intraseasonal variability. This work shows strong promise in determining the sensitivity of climate models and climate processes to heating variations associated with cloud systems.
Schumacher, Courtney
19 `eme Congr`es Francais de Mecanique Marseille, 24-28 ao^ut 2009 Transition to turbulence in globally subcritical systems
in globally subcritical systems P. MANNEVILLEa , J. ROLLANDa,b a. LadHyX, ´Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 our current understanding of the transition to turbulence in globally subcritical systems, pointing to turbulence, subcritical systems, plane Couette flow 1 General setting Understanding the transition
Feasibility of integrating other federal information systems into the Global Network of Environment and Technology, GNET{reg_sign}
The Global Environment and Technology Enterprise (GETE) of the Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF) has been tasked by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE), Federal Energy Technology Center (FETC) to assist in reducing DOE`s cost for the Global Network of Environment and Technology (GNET{reg_sign}). As part of this task, GETE is seeking federal partners to invest in GNET{reg_sign}. The authors are also seeking FETC`s commitment to serve as GNET`s federal agency champion promoting the system to potential agency partners. This report assesses the benefits of partnering with GNET{reg_sign} and provides recommendations for identifying and integrating other federally funded (non-DOE) environmental information management systems into GNET{reg_sign}.
5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast
HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N. Q. Hung et al An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand N. Q. Hung, M. S. Babel, S Geosciences Union. 183 #12;HESSD 5, 183218, 2008 A rainfall forecast model using Artificial Neural Network N
Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation
Ensemble Forecast of Analyses With Uncertainty Estimation Vivien Mallet1,2, Gilles Stoltz3 2012 Mallet, Stoltz, Zhuk, Nakonechniy Ensemble Forecast of Analyses November 2012 1 / 14 hal-00947755,version1-21Feb2014 #12;Objective To produce the best forecast of a model state using a data assimilation
Load forecast and treatment of conservation
conservation is implicitly incorporated in the short-term demand forecast? #12;3 Incorporating conservationLoad forecast and treatment of conservation July 28th 2010 Resource Adequacy Technical Committee in the short-term model Our short-term model is an econometric model which can not explicitly forecast
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20122022 FINAL FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections of commercial floor space
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION FINAL STAFF FORECAST OF 2008 PEAK DEMAND STAFFREPORT June 2007 CEC-200 of the information in this paper. #12;Abstract This document describes staff's final forecast of 2008 peak demand demand forecasts for the respective territories of the state's three investor-owned utilities (IOUs
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 FINAL FORECAST Volume 2: Electricity Demand The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous California Energy for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch Tian prepared
CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 20142024 REVISED FORECAST Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The demand forecast is the combined product of the hard work provided estimates for demand response program impacts and contributed to the residential forecast. Mitch
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For
Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast For West Virginia: 2011 Update Prepared for the West December 2011 � Copyright 2011 WVU Research Corporation #12;#12;W.Va. Consensus Coal Forecast Update 2011 i Table of Contents Executive Summary 1 Recent Developments 3 Consensus Coal Production And Price Forecast
Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center
Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)
Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian
Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong
Possible global warming futures Minh Ha-Duong firstname.lastname@example.com CNRS, France HDGC, Carnegie Mellon Possible global warming futures p.1/36 #12;SRES: Forecasts or scenarios? +5.5 C in 2100 the controversy using imprecise probabilities, a more general information theory. . . Possible global warming
Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion
is important because of the high costs of delays and pollution today, as well as the projected doubling in airResearch Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion passengers each year. Air traffic delays have become a huge problem
Gummadi, Ramakrishna
Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a large, complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion
Research Statement of Hamsa Balakrishnan The air transportation system is a large, complex, global system that transports over 2.1 billion passengers each year. Air traffic delays have become a huge to the Joint Economic Committee of the US Senate, domestic air traffic delays in 2007 cost airlines over $19
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECAST COMPARISON REPORT STAFFREPORT June 2005 Gorin Principal Authors Lynn Marshall Project Manager Kae C. Lewis Acting Manager Demand Analysis Office Valerie T. Hall Deputy Director Energy Efficiency and Demand Analysis Division Scott W. Matthews Acting
Building a Network of SME for a Global PSS Infrastructure in Complex High-Tech Systems: Example of Urban Applications
Building a Network of SME for a Global PSS Infrastructure in Complex High-Tech Systems: Example is then applied to the case of urban PSS. Keywords: Network of SME, PSS Organization, Machine and facilitating maintenance. Dynamic high-technology Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) propose innovative
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations � the Northern Study Area.
This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times. A comprehensive analysis of wind energy forecast errors for the various model-based power forecasts was presented for a suite of wind energy ramp definitions. The results compiled over the year-long study period showed that the power forecasts based on the research models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) more accurately predict wind energy ramp events than the current operational forecast models, both at the system aggregate level and at the local wind plant level. At the system level, the ESRL_RAP-based forecasts most accurately predict both the total number of ramp events and the occurrence of the events themselves, but the HRRR-based forecasts more accurately predict the ramp rate. At the individual site level, the HRRR-based forecasts most accurately predicted the actual ramp occurrence, the total number of ramps and the ramp rates (40-60% improvement in ramp rates over the coarser resolution forecast
Finley, Cathy [WindLogics
Development and Deployment of an Advanced Wind Forecasting Technique
findings. Part 2 addresses how operators of wind power plants and power systems can incorporate advanced the output of advanced wind energy forecasts into decision support models for wind power plant and power and applications of power market simulation models around the world. Argonne's software tools are used extensively
Probabilistic Forecasts of Wind Speed: Ensemble Model Output Statistics
. Over the past two decades, ensembles of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed and phrases: Continuous ranked probability score; Density forecast; Ensem- ble system; Numerical weather prediction; Heteroskedastic censored regression; Tobit model; Wind energy. 1 #12;1 Introduction Accurate
Washington at Seattle, University of
Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting
sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a priori102 Introduction An important goal in operational weather forecasting is to reduce the number
Haak, Hein
Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks
Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Stefan Achleitner, Tao Liu an advantage for output power prediction. Solar Energy Prediction System Our prediction model is based variability of more then 100 kW per minute. For practical usage of solar energy, predicting times of high
Cerpa, Alberto E.
Climate Dynamics Diagnosis of the Marine Low Cloud Simulation in the NCAR Community Earth System
; parameterization; stratocumulus to cumulus transition Corresponding Author: Heng Xiao, Ph. D. Pacific Northwest: First Author: Heng Xiao, Ph. D. First Author Secondary Information: Order of Authors: Heng Xiao, Ph. D Forecast System (GFS)3 4 Heng Xiao5 Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest
Bretherton, Chris
Global ice sheet modeling
The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.
Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L. [Univ. of Maine, Orono, ME (United States). Institute for Quaternary Studies
Well-posedness, global existence and blow-up phenomena for an integrable multi-component Camassa-Holm system
This paper is concerned with a multi-component Camassa-Holm system, which has been proven to be integrable and has peakon solutions. This system includes many one-component and two-component Camassa-Holm type systems as special cases. In this paper, we first establish the local well-posedness and a continuation criterion for the system, then we present several global existence or blow-up results for two important integrable two-component subsystems. Our obtained results cover and improve recent results in \\cite{Gui,yan}.
Zeng Zhang; Zhaoyang Yin
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations � the Southern Study Area
This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)--Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute � 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 � 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems� ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 � 3 hours.
Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Manobianco, John; Schroeder, John; Ancell, Brian; Brewster, Keith; Basu, Sukanta; Banunarayanan, Venkat; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Flores, Isabel
Global Statistics
1996). Globalization in Question: International Economy andGlobalization; Justice; Poverty; Underground Economy; United
Crow, Ben D
Duke, R. D. and Kammen, D. M. (2003) "Energy for Development: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions", Climate Change for Africa: Science,
Duke, R. D. and Kammen, D. M. (2003) "Energy for Development: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions", Climate Change for Africa: Science, Technology, Policy and Capacity Building: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions Richard D. Duke* and Daniel M. Kammen
Kammen, Daniel M.
Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective...
Broader source: Energy.gov (indexed) [DOE]
0: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. Future Power Systems 20: The Smart Enterprise, its Objective and Forecasting. More Documents & Publications Future Power...
Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch
A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.
Chandra, Ramu Sharat (Niskayuna, NY); Liu, Yan (Ballston Lake, NY); Bose, Sumit (Niskayuna, NY); de Bedout, Juan Manuel (West Glenville, NY)
Forecasting Distributions with Experts Advice
) is the probability forecast based on an arbitrary vector wE in the unit simplex, experts forecasts ?�E , and model {p?} . Remark 2 In most cases, we can choose c = 1/?, implying in the result below that c? = 1. Example 3 The prediction function is a mixture... 0 = 1, and #IT (k) = tk+1 ? tk. Define ek ? E. Theorem 12 Under Conditions 1 and 7, R1,...,t (pW ) ? c? K? k=0 Rt(k),...,t(k+1)?1 ( p?(e(k)) ) + c ln (#E) ?c K? k=1 ln ut(k) (ek, ek?1)? c K? k=0 t(k+1)?2? s=t(k) ln (us+1 (ek, ek)) . 9 Remark 13...
Sancetta, Alessio
Forecasting wind speed financial return
The prediction of wind speed is very important when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. In this paper, we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed semi-Markov model that has been shown to be able to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is used to forecast, one step ahead, wind speed. In order to check the validity of the model we show, as indicator of goodness, the root mean square error and mean absolute error between real data and predicted ones. We also compare our forecasting results with those of a persistence model. At last, we show an application of the model to predict financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, Duration and Convexity.
D'Amico, Guglielmo; Prattico, Flavio
Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks
Forecasting of preprocessed daily solar radiation time series using neural networks Christophe prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. First results are promising with nRMSE ~ 21 t or at day d and year y d H0 Extraterrestrial solar radiation coefficient for day d [MJ/m²] xt, xd,y Time
Forecast Energy | Open Energy Information
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Google Bookmark EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Office of InspectorConcentrating Solar Power Basics (TheEtelligence (SmartHome Kyoung's pictureFlintFlowerForecast
Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach
Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.
Estep, Donald
Testing a Coupled Global-limited-area Data Assimilation System Using Observations from the 2004 Pacific Typhoon Season
Tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasts have improved in recent years due to increased model resolution, improved data assimilation, and the rapid increase in the number of routinely assimilated observations over oceans. The data...
1360 IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 3, August 1997 Application of Fuzzy Logic Technology for Spatial Load Forecasting
-effective and reliable distribution system. In the design stages, utilities need to plan ahead for anticipated future a reliable power system with just enough capacity (with proper reliability margins) to support their customers. Distribution systems are the retail part of utilities that supply power to their customers
Chow, Mo-Yuen
Investigating the Correlation Between Wind and Solar Power Forecast Errors in the Western Interconnection: Preprint
Wind and solar power generations differ from conventional energy generation because of the variable and uncertain nature of their power output. This variability and uncertainty can have significant impacts on grid operations. Thus, short-term forecasting of wind and solar generation is uniquely helpful for power system operations to balance supply and demand in an electricity system. This paper investigates the correlation between wind and solar power forecasting errors.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.
Forecasting Economic and Financial Variables with Global VARs
City, June 24-27, 2007 and at the Bank of England Research Workshop on Dynamic Factor Models held at the Bank of England, 8-10 October 2007. We are grateful for comments by the discussants James Stock and Domenico Giannone as well as to Frank Diebold... and Weiner, PSW, (2004), and further developed in Dees, di Mauro, Pesaran and Smith, DdPS, (2007), for answering some of these questions. We do so recognising that macroeconomic policy analysis and risk management need to take into account the increasing...
Pesaran, M Hashem; Schuermann, Til; Smith, L Vanessa
Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Final report
The purpose of the project was to conduct model simulations for past and future climate change with respect to the proposed Yucca Mtn. repository. The authors report on three main topics, one of which is boundary conditions for paleo-hindcast studies. These conditions are necessary for the conduction of three to four model simulations. The boundary conditions have been prepared for future runs. The second topic is (a) comparing the atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with observations and other GCMs; and (b) development of a better precipitation data base for the Yucca Mtn. region for comparisons with models. These tasks have been completed. The third topic is preliminary assessments of future climate change. Energy balance model (EBM) simulations suggest that the greenhouse effect will likely dominate climate change at Yucca Mtn. for the next 10,000 years. The EBM study should improve rational choice of GCM CO{sub 2} scenarios for future climate change.
Crowley, T.J.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)
of Globalization: Statistics Weiss, L. (1997). "of Globalization: Statistics Milanovic, B. (1999). Truethe focus of global statistics, particularly in relation to
Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint
Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.
Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.
Geothermal wells: a forecast of drilling activity
Numbers and problems for geothermal wells expected to be drilled in the United States between 1981 and 2000 AD are forecasted. The 3800 wells forecasted for major electric power projects (totaling 6 GWe of capacity) are categorized by type (production, etc.), and by location (The Geysers, etc.). 6000 wells are forecasted for direct heat projects (totaling 0.02 Quads per year). Equations are developed for forecasting the number of wells, and data is presented. Drilling and completion problems in The Geysers, The Imperial Valley, Roosevelt Hot Springs, the Valles Caldera, northern Nevada, Klamath Falls, Reno, Alaska, and Pagosa Springs are discussed. Likely areas for near term direct heat projects are identified.
Brown, G.L.; Mansure, A.J.; Miewald, J.N.
Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data
the single individual forecasts. Several studies have shown that combining forecasts can be a useful hedge against structural breaks, and forecast combinations are often more stable than single forecasts (e.g. Hendry and Clements, 2004, Stock and Watson, 2004... in expectations. Hence, we have the following. Corollary 4 Suppose maxt?T kl (Yt, hwt,Xti)kr ? A taking expectation on the left hand side, adding 2A ? T and setting ? = 0 in mT (?), i.e. TX t=1 E [lt (wt)? lt (ut...
Solid low-level waste forecasting guide
Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford`s experience within the last six years. Hanford`s forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford`s annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford`s forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data.
Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.
The Value of Wind Power Forecasting
Wind Power Forecasting Preprint Debra Lew and Michael Milligan National Renewable Energy Laboratory Gary Jordan and Richard Piwko GE Energy Presented at the 91 st American...
Chameleon foreCAST
Dark energy models, such as the chameleon, where the acceleration of the expansion of the universe results from the dynamics of a scalar field coupled to matter, suffer from the potential existence of a fifth force. Three known mechanisms have been proposed to restore General Relativity in the solar system and the laboratory, which are the symmetron/Damour-Polyakov effect, the Vainshtein property and the chameleon screening. Here, we propose to probe the existence of chameleons in the laboratory, considering their particle physics consequences. We envisage the resonant and non-resonant production of chameleons in the sun and their back-conversion into X-ray photons in a solar helioscope pipe such as the one used by CAST. A detection of these X-rays would indicate the existence of chameleons. We focus on a template model for the solar magnetic field: a constant magnetic field in a narrow shell surrounding the tachocline. The X-ray photons in a helioscope pipe obtained from back-conversion of the chameleons created inside the sun have a spectrum which is peaked in the sub-keV region, just below the actual sensitivity range of the present axion helioscopes. Nevertheless they are detectable by present day magnetic helioscopes like CAST and Sumico, which were built originally for solar axions. We also propose a chameleon-through-a-wall experiment whereby X-ray photons from a synchroton radiation source could be converted into chameleons inside a dipole magnet, then pass a wall which is opaque to X-rays before being back-converted into X-ray photons in a second magnet downstream. We show that this could provide a direct signature for the existence of chameleon particles.
Philippe Brax; Axel Lindner; Konstantin Zioutas
U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast
U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 U-M Construction Forecast Spring � Fall 2012 As of December 15, 2011 Prepared by AEC Preliminary & Advisory #12;U-M Construction Forecast December 15, 2011 Overview � Campus by campus � Snapshot in time � Not all projects � Construction coordination efforts
Kamat, Vineet R.
Review of Variable Generation Forecasting in the West: July 2013 - March 2014
This report interviews 13 operating entities (OEs) in the Western Interconnection about their implementation of wind and solar forecasting. The report updates and expands upon one issued by NREL in 2012. As in the 2012 report, the OEs interviewed vary in size and character; the group includes independent system operators, balancing authorities, utilities, and other entities. Respondents' advice for other utilities includes starting sooner rather than later as it can take time to plan, prepare, and train a forecast; setting realistic expectations; using multiple forecasts; and incorporating several performance metrics.
Widiss, R.; Porter, K.
Spatial data infrastructures for the Amazon: a first step towards a global forest information system
of deforestation caused by human actions. Deforestation is particularly intense in countries with large million km2 , 17% of the original forest has been cleared, according to the Brazilian deforestation, current information on global deforestation is extremely patchy. There is much disagreement
Camara, Gilberto
Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables
Optimal combined wind power forecasts using exogeneous variables Fannar ¨Orn Thordarson Kongens of the thesis is combined wind power forecasts using informations from meteorological forecasts. Lyngby, January
Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation
Ensemble forecast of analyses: Coupling data assimilation and sequential aggregation Vivien Mallet1. [1] Sequential aggregation is an ensemble forecasting approach that weights each ensemble member based on past observations and past forecasts. This approach has several limitations: The weights
Mallet, Vivien
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
is to issue deterministic forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models. Uncertainty canProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc discretization than is seen in other weather quantities. The prevailing paradigm in weather forecasting
Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes
Coordinating production quantities and demand forecasts through penalty schemes MURUVVET CELIKBAS1 departments which enable organizations to match demand forecasts with production quantities. This research problem where demand is uncertain and the marketing de- partment provides a forecast to manufacturing
Swaminathan, Jayashankar M.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2006-2016 STAFF ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST Demand Forecast report is the product of the efforts of many current and former California Energy-2 Demand Forecast Disaggregation......................................................1-4 Statewide
HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand
HIERARCHY OF PRODUCTION DECISIONS Forecasts of future demand Aggregate plan Master production Planning and Forecast Bias · Forecast error seldom is normally distributed · There are few finite planning
Brock, David
Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction
Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc in demand forecasting for new communication services. Acknowledgments: The writing of this paper commenced employers or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica- tions
Parsons, Simon
has developed longterm forecasts of transportation energy demand as well as projected ranges of transportation fuel and crude oil import requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts makeCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY
NREL: Transmission Grid Integration - Forecasting
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and ResourcesOtherForecasting NREL researchers use solar and
European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind Generation by a Dynamic
European Wind Energy Conference & Exhibition EWEC 2003, Madrid, Spain. Forecasting of Regional Wind. Abstract-Short-term wind power forecasting is recognized nowadays as a major requirement for a secure and economic integration of wind power in a power system. In the case of large-scale integration, end users
Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting with EPRI-REEPS 2.1
LBL-34046 UC-350 Residential Appliance Data, Assumptions and Methodology for End-Use Forecasting-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the U.S. residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which
The Climate of the McMurdo, Antarctica, Region as Represented by One Year of Forecasts from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System*
System (AMPS) was implemented in October 2000. AMPS employs a limited-area model, the Polar fifth-generation and seasonal distributions of wind direction and speed, 2-m temperature, mean sea level pressure, precipitation influence on the near-surface winds. Time-mean vortices occur in the lee of Ross Island, perhaps a factor
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private...
Energy Savers [EERE]
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A PublicPrivate Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations The...
Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo
Forecasting of Solar Radiation Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz, Marco Girodo Oldenburg University have been presented more than twenty years ago (Jensenius, 1981), when daily solar radiation forecasts
New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models
New Concepts in Wind Power Forecasting Models Vladimiro Miranda, Ricardo Bessa, João Gama, Guenter to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind for more accurate short term wind power forecasting models has led to solid and impressive development
Inverse Modelling to Forecast Enclosure Fire Dynamics�
. This thesis proposes and studies a method to use measurements of the real event in order to steer and accelerate fire simulations. This technology aims at providing forecasts of the fire development with a positive lead time, i.e. the forecast of future events...
Jahn, Wolfram
. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of near-surface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields
Malmberg, Anders
. (2004) this forecast error was encountered when assimilating satellite measurements of zonal wind speeds between satellite measurements and meteorological forecasts of nearsurface ocean winds. This type of covariance enters in assimilation techniques such as Kalman filtering. In all, six residual fields
Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting
Electricity consumption is constantly evolving due to changes in people habits, technological innovations1 Nonparametric models for electricity load forecasting JANUARY 23, 2015 Yannig Goude, Vincent at University Paris-Sud 11 Orsay. His research interests are electricity load forecasting, more generally time
Genève, Université de
deficits. After solid 3% growth this year, real GDP growth will recede a bit for the next two years. New household spending. Real GDP will firm above 3% in 2015. · The pace of growth in China has continuedUHERO FORECAST PROJECT DECEMBER 5, 2014 Asia-Pacific Forecast: Press Version: Embargoed Until 2
-Assessment of current water conditions -Precipitation Forecast
#12;-Assessment of current water conditions - Precipitation Forecast - Recommendations for Drought of the mountains, so early demand for irrigation water should be minimal as we officially move into spring. Western, it is forecast to bring wet snow to the eastern slope of the Rockies, with less accumulations west of the divide
APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS Tara M. Sinclair , H.O. Stekler, and Warren Carnow Department of Economics The George Washington University Monroe Hall #340 2115 G Street NW Washington, DC 20052 JEL Codes, Mahalanobis Distance Abstract This paper presents a new approach to evaluating multiple economic forecasts
Vertes, Akos
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity
2013 Midyear Economic Forecast Sponsorship Opportunity Thursday, April 18, 2013, Hyatt Regency Irvine 11:30 a.m. 1:30 p.m. Dr. Anil Puri presents his annual Midyear Economic Forecast addressing and Economics at California State University, Fullerton, the largest accredited business school in California
Chimeras in globally coupled oscillatory systems: From ensembles of oscillators to spatially continuous media
We study an oscillatory medium with a nonlinear global coupling that gives rise to a harmonic mean-field oscillation with constant amplitude and frequency. Two types of cluster states are found, each undergoing a symmetry-breaking transition towards a related chimera state. We demonstrate that the diffusional coupling is non-essential for these complex dynamics. Furthermore, we investigate localized turbulence and discuss the question of a precise definition for chimera states.
Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River basin, California, to global warming
The hydrologic sensitivities of four medium-sized mountainous catchments in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins to long-term global warming were analyzed. The hydrologic response of these catchments, all of which are dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, were simulated by the coupling of the snowmelt and the soil moisture accounting models of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast System. In all four catchments the global warming pattern, which was indexed to CO{sub 2} doubling scenarios simulated by three (global) general circulation models, produced a major seasonal shift in the snow accumulation pattern. Under the alternative climate scenarios more winter precipitation fell as rain instead of snow, and winter runoff increased while spring snowmelt runoff decreased. In addition, large increases in the annual flood maxima were simulated, primarily due to an increase in rain-on-snow events, with the time of occurrence of many large floods shifting from spring to winter.
Lettenmaier, D.P. (Univ. of Washington, Seattle (USA)); Gan, Thian Yew (Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok (Thailand))
1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast, Technical Appendix: Volume 1.
This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA`s Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.
United States. Bonneville Power Administration.
Canonical Duality-Triality Theory: Bridge Between Nonconvex Analysis/Mechanics and Global Optimization in Complex Systems
Canonical duality-triality is a breakthrough methodological theory, which can be used not only for modeling complex systems within a unified framework, but also for solving a wide class of challenging problems from real-world applications. This paper presents a brief review on this theory, its philosophical origin, physics foundation, and mathematical statements in both finite and infinite dimensional spaces, with emphasizing on its role for bridging the gap between nonconvex analysis/mechanics and global optimization. Special attentions are paid on unified understanding the fundamental difficulties in large deformation mechanics, bifurcation/chaos in nonlinear science, and the NP-hard problems in global optimization, as well as the theorems, methods, and algorithms for solving these challenging problems. Misunderstandings and confusions on some basic concepts, such as objectivity, nonlinearity, Lagrangian, and generalized convexities are discussed and classified. Breakthrough from recent challenges and conceptual mistakes by M. Voisei, C. Zalinescu and his co-worker are addressed. Some open problems and future works in global optimization and nonconvex mechanics are proposed.
David Y Gao; Ning Ruan; Vittorio Latorre
Design and global optimization of high-efficiency solar thermal systems with tungsten cermets
Solar thermal, thermoelectric, and thermophotovoltaic (TPV) systems have high maximum theoretical efficiencies; experimental systems fall short because of losses by selective solar absorbers and TPV selective emitters. To ...
Chester, David A.
Application of the Global Positioning System to the Measurement of Overhead Power Transmission Conductor Sag
Systems Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ Entergy New Orleans, LA Arizona Public Service Phoenix, AZ
Earthquake Forecast via Neutrino Tomography
We discuss the possibility of forecasting earthquakes by means of (anti)neutrino tomography. Antineutrinos emitted from reactors are used as a probe. As the antineutrinos traverse through a region prone to earthquakes, observable variations in the matter effect on the antineutrino oscillation would provide a tomography of the vicinity of the region. In this preliminary work, we adopt a simplified model for the geometrical profile and matter density in a fault zone. We calculate the survival probability of electron antineutrinos for cases without and with an anomalous accumulation of electrons which can be considered as a clear signal of the coming earthquake, at the geological region with a fault zone, and find that the variation may reach as much as 3% for $\\bar \
Bin Wang; Ya-Zheng Chen; Xue-Qian Li
Development of Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerant Solutions for Commercial Refrigeration Systems using a Life Cycle Climate Performance Design Tool
Commercial refrigeration systems are known to be prone to high leak rates and to consume large amounts of electricity. As such, direct emissions related to refrigerant leakage and indirect emissions resulting from primary energy consumption contribute greatly to their Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP). In this paper, an LCCP design tool is used to evaluate the performance of a typical commercial refrigeration system with alternative refrigerants and minor system modifications to provide lower Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerant solutions with improved LCCP compared to baseline systems. The LCCP design tool accounts for system performance, ambient temperature, and system load; system performance is evaluated using a validated vapor compression system simulation tool while ambient temperature and system load are devised from a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). The LCCP design tool also accounts for the change in hourly electricity emission rate to yield an accurate prediction of indirect emissions. The analysis shows that conventional commercial refrigeration system life cycle emissions are largely due to direct emissions associated with refrigerant leaks and that system efficiency plays a smaller role in the LCCP. However, as a transition occurs to low GWP refrigerants, the indirect emissions become more relevant. Low GWP refrigerants may not be suitable for drop-in replacements in conventional commercial refrigeration systems; however some mixtures may be introduced as transitional drop-in replacements. These transitional refrigerants have a significantly lower GWP than baseline refrigerants and as such, improved LCCP. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the tradeoffs between refrigerant GWP, efficiency and capacity.
Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL] [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL] [ORNL; Vineyard, Edward Allan [ORNL] [ORNL
Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint
As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.
Steckler, N.; Florita, A.; Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.
MSSM Forecast for the LHC
We perform a forecast of the MSSM with universal soft terms (CMSSM) for the LHC, based on an improved Bayesian analysis. We do not incorporate ad hoc measures of the fine-tuning to penalize unnatural possibilities: such penalization arises from the Bayesian analysis itself when the experimental value of $M_Z$ is considered. This allows to scan the whole parameter space, allowing arbitrarily large soft terms. Still the low-energy region is statistically favoured (even before including dark matter or g-2 constraints). Contrary to other studies, the results are almost unaffected by changing the upper limits taken for the soft terms. The results are also remarkable stable when using flat or logarithmic priors, a fact that arises from the larger statistical weight of the low-energy region in both cases. Then we incorporate all the important experimental constrains to the analysis, obtaining a map of the probability density of the MSSM parameter space, i.e. the forecast of the MSSM. Since not all the experimental information is equally robust, we perform separate analyses depending on the group of observables used. When only the most robust ones are used, the favoured region of the parameter space contains a significant portion outside the LHC reach. This effect gets reinforced if the Higgs mass is not close to its present experimental limit and persits when dark matter constraints are included. Only when the g-2 constraint (based on $e^+e^-$ data) is considered, the preferred region (for $\\mu>0$) is well inside the LHC scope. We also perform a Bayesian comparison of the positive- and negative-$\\mu$ possibilities.
Maria Eugenia Cabrera; Alberto Casas; Roberto Ruiz de Austri
1993 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary
This report, which updates WHC-EP-0567, 1992 Solid Waste Reference Forecast Summary, (WHC 1992) forecasts the volumes of solid wastes to be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site during the 30-year period from FY 1993 through FY 2022. The data used in this document were collected from Westinghouse Hanford Company forecasts as well as from surveys of waste generators at other US Department of Energy sites who are now shipping or plan to ship solid wastes to the Hanford Site for disposal. These wastes include low-level and low-level mixed waste, transuranic and transuranic mixed waste, and nonradioactive hazardous waste.
Valero, O.J.; Blackburn, C.L. [Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (United States); Kaae, P.S.; Armacost, L.L.; Garrett, S.M.K. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)
Testing Linear Diagnostics of Ensemble Performance on a Simplified Global Circulation Model
is inherently flow dependent and that the ensemble predicts potential patterns of forecast errors more reliably than the magnitudes of the errors. A low-resolution global circulation model is implemented to calculate linear diagnostics in the vector space...
Nelson, Ethan
PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power
PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Analysis of the Results of an On-line Wind Power Ensemble- forecasts for wind power (FU2101) a demo-application producing quantile forecasts of wind power correct) quantile forecasts of the wind power production are generated by the application. However
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng
A New Measure of Earnings Forecast Uncertainty Xuguang Sheng American University Washington, D of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast available to analysts at the time they make their forecasts. Hence, it alleviates some of the limitations
Kim, Kiho
AN ANALYSIS OF FORECAST BASED REORDER POINT POLICIES : THE BENEFIT OF USING FORECASTS Mohamed Zied Ch^atenay-Malabry Cedex, France Abstract: In this paper, we analyze forecast based inventory control policies for a non-stationary demand. We assume that forecasts and the associated uncertainties are given
The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra +
The Complexity of Forecast Testing Lance Fortnow # Rakesh V. Vohra + Abstract Consider a weather forecaster predicting a probability of rain for the next day. We consider tests that given a finite sequence of forecast predictions and outcomes will either pass or fail the forecaster. Sandroni shows that any test
Fortnow, Lance
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill?
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended range forecast skill? Greg Roff,1 forecast skill at high Southern latitudes is explored. Ensemble forecasts are made for two model configurations that differ only in vertical resolution above 100 hPa. An ensemble of twelve 30day forecasts
PRELIMINARY CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST 2012-2022 AUGUST 2011 CEC-200-2011-011-SD CALIFORNIA or adequacy of the information in this report. #12;i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The staff demand forecast forecast. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ravinderpal Vaid provided the projections
Strategic safety stocks in supply chains with evolving forecasts
we have an evolving demand forecast. Under assumptions about the forecasts, the demand process their supply chain operations based on a forecast of future demand over some planning horizon. Furthermore stock inventory in a supply chain that is subject to a dynamic, evolving demand forecast. In particular
Graves, Stephen C.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF DRAFT FORECAST Energy Demand 2008-2018 forecast supports the analysis and recommendations of the 2007 Integrated Energy Commission demand forecast models. Both the staff draft energy consumption and peak forecasts are slightly
Metrics for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting (Presentation)
This presentation proposes a suite of metrics for evaluating the performance of solar power forecasting.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Florita, A.; Lu, S.; Hamann, H.; Banunarayanan, V.
Global existence and $L^{p}$ convergence rates of planar waves for three-dimensional bipolar Euler-Poisson systems
In the paper, we consider a multi-dimensional bipolar hydrodynamic model from semiconductor devices and plasmas. This system takes the form of Euler-Poisson with electric field and frictional damping added to the momentum equations. We show the global existence and $L^{p}$ convergence rates of planar diffusion waves for multi-dimensional bipolar Euler-Poisson systems when the initial data are near the planar diffusive waves. A frequency decomposition and approximate Green function based on delicate energy method are used to get the optimal decay rates of the planar diffusion waves. To our knowledge, the $L^p(p\\in[2,+\\infty])$-convergence rate of planar waves improves the previous results about the $L^2$-convergence rates.
Jie Liao; Yeping Li
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the
SolarAnywhere forecast (Perez & Hoff) ABSTRACT This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models imbedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite derived cloud motion based forecasts for the short to medium horizon (1 5 hours) and forecasts derived from NOAA
Perez, Richard R.
J.B. , 2004: Probabilistic wind power forecasts using localforecast intervals for wind power output using NWP-predictedsources such as wind and solar power. Integration of this
United States California Solar Initiative Coastally Trappedparticipants in the California Solar Initiative (CSI)on location. In California, solar irradiance forecasts near
An Evaluation of the Environmental Impact of Different Commercial Supermarket Refrigeration Systems Using Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants
Commercial refrigeration systems consumed 1.21 Quads of primary energy in 2010 and are known to be a major source for refrigerant charge leakage into the environment. Thus, it is important to study the environmental impact of commercial supermarket refrigeration systems and improve their design to minimize any adverse impacts. The system s Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) was presented as a comprehensive metric with the aim of calculating the equivalent mass of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere throughout its lifetime, from construction to operation and destruction. In this paper, an open source tool for the evaluation of the LCCP of different air-conditioning and refrigeration systems is presented and used to compare the environmental impact of a typical multiplex direct expansion (DX) supermarket refrigeration systems based on three different refrigerants as follows: two hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants (R-404A, and R-407F), and a low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerant (N-40). The comparison is performed in 8 US cities representing different climates. The hourly energy consumption of the refrigeration system, required for the calculation of the indirect emissions, is calculated using a widely used building energy modeling tool (EnergyPlus). A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of system charge and power plant emission factor on the LCCP results. Finally, we performed an uncertainty analysis to determine the uncertainty in total emissions for both R-404A and N-40 operated systems. We found that using low GWP refrigerants causes a considerable drop in the impact of uncertainty in the inputs related to direct emissions on the uncertainty of the total emissions of the system.
Beshr, Mohamed [University of Maryland, College Park; Aute, Vikrant [University of Maryland, College Park; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Fricke, Brian A [ORNL; Radermacher, Reinhard [University of Maryland, College Park
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1
Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION Since the millennium, the trend for fuel prices has been one of uncertainty prices, which have traditionally been relatively stable, increased by about 50 percent in 2008. Fuel
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION STAFF FORECAST: AVERAGE RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICES 2005 TO 2018 Mignon Marks Principal Author Mignon Marks Project Manager David Ashuckian Manager ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE Sylvia Bender Acting Deputy Director ELECTRICITY SUPPLY DIVISION B.B. Blevins Executive Director
Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting
This dissertation contains three essays in international macroeconomics and financial time series forecasting. In the first essay, I show, numerically, that a two-country New-Keynesian Sticky Prices model, driven by monetary and productivity shocks...
Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio
Scanning the Issue/Technology Special Issue on Global Positioning System
was a secondary objective. On the basis of national security considerations, the civil users of GPS have been the basic concepts and vocabulary needed for the papers which follow. GPS is not the first satellite Navigation Satellite System [1]. This system, better known as Transit, was based on a novel concept
Han, Richard Y.
Computer Assisted 'Proof' of the Global Existence of Periodic Orbits in the R�ssler System
The numerical optimized shooting method for finding periodic orbits in nonlinear dynamical systems was employed to determine the existence of periodic orbits in the well-known R\\"ossler system. By optimizing the period $T$ and the three system parameters, $a$, $b$ and $c$, simultaneously, it was found that, for any initial condition $(x_0,y_0,z_0) \\in \\Re^3$, there exists at least one set of optimized parameters corresponding to a periodic orbit passing through $ (x_0,y_0,z_0)$. After a discussion of this result it was concluded that its analytical proof may present an interesting new mathematical challenge.
A. E. Botha; W. Dednam
for desalting crude oil in petroleum refineries, for liquid-liquid extraction in hydrometallurgy, as a cooling in reducing the consumption of freshwater in the system, and minimizes the amount of wastewater to be treated
Application of the 85 GHz ice scattering signature to a global study of mesoscale convective systems
It has long been observed that tropical convection tends to cluster, organizing into multicellular mesoscale convective systems (MCS), In convective towers, updrafts on the order of 10 m s-I favor the formation of large, precipitation-sized ice...
Devlin, Karen Irene
Modeling the Global Water Resource System in an Integrated Assessment Modeling Framework: IGSM-WRS
The availability of water resources affects energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate via the water cycle. As such, watersheds and river basins are directly impacted ...
Strzepek, Kenneth M.
The EU�s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Prototype Global System?
The European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the world's first multinational cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gases. As an agreement between sovereign nations with diverse historical, institutional, and ...
Ellerman, A. Denny
The EU�s Emissions Trading Scheme: A Proto-Type Global System?
SWS 5182: Earth System Analysis Catalogue Description: Analysis of global-scale interdependences between climate, biogeochemical
System Model Carbon sequestration and climate mitigation potential of vegetation and soils 12 - 13 Earth fuel 11 Terrestrial biogeochemistry Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 Account for land carbon cycle in your Earth
Ma, Lena
Global Wind Power Conference September 18-21, 2006, Adelaide, Australia Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power, first
Global Wind Power Conference September 18-21, 2006, Adelaide, Australia Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power, first results of IEA collaboration Hannele firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract: An international forum for exchange of knowledge of power system impacts of wind power has been
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Chapter 3: Electricity Demand Forecast Summary............................................................................................................ 2 Sixth Power Plan Demand Forecast................................................................................................ 4 Demand Forecast Range
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix C: Demand Forecast Energy Demand................................................................................................................................. 1 Demand Forecast Methodology.................................................................................................. 3 New Demand Forecasting Model for the Sixth Plan
version 11apr11a Geopolitics of the Global Oil System
-market, neo-colonial system that ended with OPECs nationalizations. We examine issues of oil and natural gas-group blogs: 1. China Oil Affairs http://chinaoilaffairs.blogspot.com/ 2. Rentismo & Dutch Disease http geopolitical consequences for the Middle East, Latin America, China, and U.S. policy. In Part 1, Resources, we
O'Donnell, Tom
The Development of an Accuracy of a Doppler Global System for One Dimensional Velocity Measurement
was calibrated to maintain the relationship between the transmission ratio and frequency shift of the laser. The system was tested by measuring the surface speed across a 99.06 mm white painted disc at 18000 and 10020 rpm when the transmission ratios of the ALF...
Karabacak, Mustafa
C h a p t e r Toward a Global Ocean System for
. The technologies explained here involve a variety of optical sensors and systems and ocean observing platforms data ob- tained from state-of-the-art and emerging optical sensors and oceanographic platforms and stratification of the upper ocean are driven by the penetration of solar radiation. Absorption and scattering
Chang, Grace C.
Who Captures Value in a Global Innovation System? The case of Apple's iPod
Portelligent Inc. (2006). Apple iPod Video, 30GB MultimediaSystem? The case of Apple's iPod Greg Linden, Kenneth L.to look at one member of Apple�s iPod family, part of a
Linden, Greg; Kraemer, Kenneth L; Dedrick, Jason
The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles
, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain. The time series data for the GCC block and the Euro Area block are constructed as cross-sectionally weighted averages of the domestic variables (described in detail below), using Purchasing Power... Systemic Countries Other Oil Exporters Algeria#3; China Canada GCC Countries Euro Area Ecuador#3; Bahrain#3; Austria Indonesia Kuwait#3; Belgium Mexico Oman#3; Finland Nigeria#3; Qatar#3; France Norway Saudi Arabia Germany Venezuela#3; UAE#3; Italy Iran#3...
Cashin, Paul; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
Global stability of the rarefaction wave of the Vlasov-Poisson-Boltzmann system
This paper is devoted to the study of the nonlinear stability of the rarefaction waves of the Vlasov-Poisson-Boltzmann system with slab symmetry in the case where the electron background density satisfies an analogue of the Boltzmann relation. We allows that the electric potential may take distinct constant states at both far-fields. The rarefaction wave whose strength is not necessarily small is constructed through the quasineutral Euler equations coming from the zero-order fluid dynamic approximation of the kinetic system. We prove that the local Maxwellian with macroscopic quantities determined by the quasineutral rarefaction wave is time-asymptotically stable under small perturbations for the corresponding Cauchy problem on the Vlasov-Poisson-Boltzmann system. The main analytical tool is the combination of techniques we developed in [10] for the viscous compressible fluid with the self-consistent electric field and the reciprocal energy method based on the macro-micro decomposition of the Boltzmann equation around a local Maxwellian. Both the time decay property of the rarefaction waves and the structure of the Poisson equation play a key role in the analysis.
Renjun Duan; Shuangqian Liu
Wavelet-Based Nonlinear Multiscale Decomposition Model for Electricity Load Forecasting
electrical power systems. Furthermore, power systems need to operate at even higher efficiency lead to extra power being generated and therefore may result in excessive investment in electric plant that is not fully utilized. On the other hand, a forecast that is too low may lead to some revenue loss from sales
Murtagh, Fionn
Gaussian Processes for Short-Horizon Wind Power Forecasting Joseph Bockhorst, Chris Barber
on this task, and attention has shifted to statistical and machine learning approaches. Among the challenges of wind energy into electrical trans- mission systems. The importance of wind forecasts for wind energy throughout a power system must be nearly in balance at all times, 2) because it depends strongly on wind
Bockhorst, Joseph
Oxygenate Supply/Demand Balances in the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting Model (Released in the STEO March 1998)
Reports and Publications (EIA)
The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.
SciTech Connect: Towards a Fine-Resolution Global Coupled Climate System
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administrationcontroller systemsBi (2) Sr (2) Cawith EXO-200Multi-Functionsystems. Towardfor
IEEE Trans. on Components and Packaging Technologies, Dec. 2000, pp. 707-717 1 Electronic Part Life Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting
Cycle Concepts and Obsolescence Forecasting Rajeev Solomon, Peter Sandborn, and Michael Pecht Abstract Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years
Sandborn, Peter
Paper accepted for presentation at 2003 IEEE Bologna PowerTech Conference, June 23-26, Bologna, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks
, Italy Wind Power Forecasting using Fuzzy Neural Networks Enhanced with On-line Prediction Risk) as input, to predict the power production of wind park8 48 hours ahead. The prediction system integrates of the numerical weather predictions. Index Term-Wind power, short-term forecasting, numerical weather predictions
Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting through Visualization of Spatial Diffusion
Page 1 of 2 2005-2006 MLOG Thesis Proposal 10/2/2005 Working Title Improved New Product Forecasting. Schuster, Stuart J. Allen, and David L. Brock Company Contact Several companies are interested in this area to implement an operational system for improving new product forecasting in practice. Is � Innovative thinking
Marine geochemical data assimilation in an efficient Earth System Model of global biogeochemical cycling
Abstract. We have extended the 3-D ocean based �Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system model � (GENIE-1) to help understand the role of ocean biogeochemistry and marine sediments in the long-term (?100 to 100 000 year) regulation of atmospheric CO2, and the importance of feedbacks between CO2 and climate. Here we describe the ocean carbon cycle, which in its first incarnation is based around a simple single nutrient (phosphate) control on biological productivity. The addition of calcium carbonate preservation in deep-sea sediments and its role in regulating atmospheric CO2 is presented elsewhere (Ridgwell and Hargreaves, 2007). We have calibrated the model parameters controlling ocean carbon cycling in GENIE-1 by assimilating 3-D observational datasets of phosphate and alkalinity using an ensemble Kalman filter method. The calibrated (mean) model predicts
A. Ridgwell; J. C. Hargreaves; N. R. Edwards; J. D. Annan; T. M. Lenton; R. Marsh; A. Yool; A. Watson
Validation of Danish wind time series from a new global renewable energy atlas for energy system analysis
We present a new global high-resolution renewable energy atlas (REatlas) that can be used to calculate customised hourly time series of wind and solar PV power generation. In this paper, the atlas is applied to produce 32-year-long hourly model wind power time series for Denmark for each historical and future year between 1980 and 2035. These are calibrated and validated against real production data from the period 2000 to 2010. The high number of years allows us to discuss how the characteristics of Danish wind power generation varies between individual weather years. As an example, the annual energy production is found to vary by $\\pm10\\%$ from the average. Furthermore, we show how the production pattern change as small onshore turbines are gradually replaced by large onshore and offshore turbines. In most energy system analysis tools, fixed hourly time series of wind power generation are used to model future power systems with high penetrations of wind energy. Here, we compare the wind power time series fo...
Andresen, Gorm Bruun; Greiner, Martin
Autoregressive Time Series Forecasting of Computational Demand
We study the predictive power of autoregressive moving average models when forecasting demand in two shared computational networks, PlanetLab and Tycoon. Demand in these networks is very volatile, and predictive techniques to plan usage in advance can improve the performance obtained drastically. Our key finding is that a random walk predictor performs best for one-step-ahead forecasts, whereas ARIMA(1,1,0) and adaptive exponential smoothing models perform better for two and three-step-ahead forecasts. A Monte Carlo bootstrap test is proposed to evaluate the continuous prediction performance of different models with arbitrary confidence and statistical significance levels. Although the prediction results differ between the Tycoon and PlanetLab networks, we observe very similar overall statistical properties, such as volatility dynamics.
Sandholm, Thomas
Do Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold Mining Industry
Economists� Gold Price Forecasts,� Australian Journal ofDo Investors Forecast Fat Firms? Evidence from the Gold
Borenstein, Severin; Farrell, Joseph
Potential to Improve Forecasting Accuracy: Advances in Supply Chain Management
Forecasting is a necessity almost in any operation. However, the tools of forecasting are still primitive in view of the great strides made by research and the increasing abundance of data made possible by automatic ...
Datta, Shoumen
Market perceptions of efficiency and news in analyst forecast errors
Financial analysts are considered inefficient when they do not fully incorporate relevant information into their forecasts. In this dissertation, I investigate differences in the observable efficiency of analysts' earnings forecasts between firms...
Chevis, Gia Marie
The effect of multinationality on management earnings forecasts
This study examines the relationship between a firm??s degree of multinationality and its managers?? earnings forecasts. Firms with a high degree of multinationality are subject to greater uncertainty regarding earnings forecasts due...
Runyan, Bruce Wayne
A Globally Distributed System for Job, Data, and Information Handling for High Energy Physics
The computing infrastructures of the modern high energy physics experiments need to address an unprecedented set of requirements. The collaborations consist of hundreds of members from dozens of institutions around the world and the computing power necessary to analyze the data produced surpasses already the capabilities of any single computing center. A software infrastructure capable of seamlessly integrating dozens of computing centers around the world, enabling computing for a large and dynamical group of users, is of fundamental importance for the production of scientific results. Such a computing infrastructure is called a computational grid. The SAM-Grid offers a solution to these problems for CDF and DZero, two of the largest high energy physics experiments in the world, running at Fermilab. The SAM-Grid integrates standard grid middleware, such as Condor-G and the Globus Toolkit, with software developed at Fermilab, organizing the system in three major components: data handling, job handling, and information management. This dissertation presents the challenges and the solutions provided in such a computing infrastructure.
Garzoglio, Gabriele; /DePaul U.; ,
www.biosciencemag.org October 2012 / Vol. 62 No. 10 BioScience 911 Global Bioenergy Capacity as
the maximum PBP to realistically range from 12% to 35% of 2009 global primary energy consumption, with yield% of the 2009 global primary energy consumption (GPEC09; Haberl et al. 2010, USEIA 2011). Reducing the range W. Running Virtually all global energy forecasts include an expectation that bioenergy
Montana, University of
Mapping the Impact of Security Threats on Safety-Critical Global Navigation Satellite Systems Chris W. Johnson (1), A. Atencia Yepez (2)
Mapping the Impact of Security Threats on Safety-Critical Global Navigation Satellite Systems Chris of attack scenarios can be used to assess the resilience of safety cases to the impact of external security accident advocated the development of safety argumentation across the oil and gas industry (US Presidential
Johnson, Chris
Proc. of 25th Int'l Symp. on Remote Sensing and Global Env. Change, Vol.II, pp. 223233, April 1993 A REGIONAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR
and political systems affect and are affected by the environment (Committee on Global Change, 1990; Committee software tool developed by the research team that supports access to information and data integration tools natural resource base. This paper describes a prototype software tool that supports access
Cheng, Betty H.C.
Wind power forecasting in U.S. electricity markets.
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts.
Botterud, A.; Wang, J.; Miranda, V.; Bessa, R. J.; Decision and Information Sciences; INESC Porto
Wind power forecasting in U.S. Electricity markets
Wind power forecasting is becoming an important tool in electricity markets, but the use of these forecasts in market operations and among market participants is still at an early stage. The authors discuss the current use of wind power forecasting in U.S. ISO/RTO markets, and offer recommendations for how to make efficient use of the information in state-of-the-art forecasts. (author)
Botterud, Audun; Wang, Jianhui; Miranda, Vladimiro; Bessa, Ricardo J.
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions over Multiple Timescales (Presentation)
This presentation presents some statistical analysis of wind power forecast errors and error distributions, with examples using ERCOT data.
Hodge, B. M.; Milligan, M.
PSO (FU 2101) Ensemble-forecasts for wind power Wind Power Ensemble Forecasting Using Wind Speed the problems of (i) transforming the meteorological ensembles to wind power ensembles and, (ii) correcting) data. However, quite often the actual wind power production is outside the range of ensemble forecast
requirements. The transportation energy demand forecasts make assumptions about fuel price forecastsCALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION TRANSPORTATION ENERGY FORECASTS FOR THE 2007 INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY ENERGY COMMISSION Gordon Schremp, Jim Page, and Malachi Weng-Gutierrez Principal Authors Jim Page Project
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles 1 Adrian E. Raftery, Fadoua forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper of PDFs centered around the individual (possibly bias-corrected) forecasts, where the weights are equal
Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the
Forecast Combinations of Computational Intelligence and Linear Models for the NN5 Time Series Forecasting competition Robert R. Andrawis Dept Computer Engineering Cairo University, Giza, Egypt email@example.com November 6, 2010 Abstract In this work we introduce a forecasting model with which we participated
Atiya, Amir
GET your forecast at the click of a button.
GET your forecast at the click of a button. EXPLORE your local weather in detail. PLAN your days favourite locations; · Pan and zoom to any area in Australia; · Combine the latest weather and forecast current temperatures across Australia. MetEyeTM computer screen image displaying the weather forecast
Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination
Compatibility of Stand Basal Area Predictions Based on Forecast Combination Xiongqing Zhang Carr.) in Beijing, forecast combination was used to adjust predicted stand basal areas from these three types of models. The forecast combination method combines information and disperses errors from
Cao, Quang V.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER PREDICTION: PHENOMENOLOGICAL CHALLENGES AND FORECAST METHODOLOGY Michael P. Meyers of the American Meteorological Society Mountain Weather and Forecasting Monograph Draft from Friday, May 21, 2010 of weather analysis and forecasting in complex terrain with special emphasis placed on the role of humans
Steenburgh, Jim
Earnings forecast bias -a statistical analysis Franois Dossou
Earnings forecast bias - a statistical analysis François Dossou Sandrine Lardic** Karine Michalon' earnings forecasts is an important aspect of research for different reasons: Many empirical studies employ analysts' consensus forecasts as a proxy for the market's expectations of future earnings in order
Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta*
Using Large Datasets to Forecast Sectoral Employment Rangan Gupta* Department of Economics Bayesian and classical methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition-sample period and January 1990 to March 2009 as the out-of- sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance
Ahmad, Sajjad
Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China
Power load forecasting Organization: Huizhou Electric Power, P. R. China Presenter: Zhifeng Hao can be divided into load forecasting and electrical consumption predicting according to forecasting in generators macroeconomic control, power exchange plan and so on. And the prediction is from one day to seven
Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting
· advantage: no NWP data necessary very actual shortest term forecasts possible · wind power inputAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather October 2007 #12;EMS/ECAM 2007 Nadja Saleck Outline · Study site · Wind power forecasting - method
Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1
1 Weighted Parametric Operational Hydrology Forecasting Thomas E. Croley II1 1 Great Lakes forecasts in operational hydrology builds a sample of possibilities for the future, of climate series from-parametric method can be extended into a new weighted parametric hydrological forecasting technique to allow
Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models
Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models Mark S. Roulstona; Numerical weather prediction 1. Introduction Wave forecasting is now an integral part of operational weather methods for generating such forecasts from numerical model output from the European Centre for Medium
AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S.
AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models
Povinelli, Richard J.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff members in the Demand, and utilities. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION CALIFORNIA ENERGY DEMAND 2008-2018 STAFF REVISED FORECAST forecast is the combined product of the hard work and expertise of numerous staff in the Demand Analysis. Mitch Tian prepared the peak demand forecast. Ted Dang prepared the historic energy consumption data
Draft for Public Comment Appendix A. Demand Forecast
Draft for Public Comment A-1 Appendix A. Demand Forecast INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY A 20-year forecast of electricity demand is a required component of the Council's Northwest Regional Conservation had a tradition of acknowledging the uncertainty of any forecast of electricity demand and developing
Forecasting Market Demand for New Telecommunications Services: An Introduction Peter Mc to redress this situation by presenting a discussion of the issues involved in demand forecasting for new or consultancy clients. KEYWORDS: Demand Forecasting, New Product Marketing, Telecommunica tions Services. 1 #12
McBurney, Peter
Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services
Using Belief Functions to Forecast Demand for Mobile Satellite Services Peter McBurney and Simon.j.mcburney,firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract. This paper outlines an application of belief functions to forecasting the demand for a new service in a new category, based on new technology. Forecasting demand for a new product or service
CSUF ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS MIDYEAR UPDATE - APRIL 2014 Anil Puri, Ph.D. -- Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Dean, Mihaylo College of Business and Economics Mira Farka, Ph.D. -- Co-Director, Center for Economic Analysis and Forecasting -- Associate Professor
FORECASTING SOLAR RADIATION -- PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF AN APPROACH BASED UPON THE NATIONAL, and undertake a preliminary evaluation of, a simple solar radiation forecast model using sky cover predictions forecasts is 0.05o in latitude and longitude. Solar Radiation model: The model presented in this paper
The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions
and greenhouse gas emissions Jerome Dumortier1 , Dermot J Hayes2 , Miguel Carriquiry2 , Fengxia Dong3 , Xiaodong in the U.S. causes a net increase in GHG emissions on a global scale. We couple a global agricultural production in the United States. The effects on emissions from agricultural production (i.e., methane
Zhou, Yaoqi
Forecasting the Market Penetration of Energy Conservation Technologies: The Decision Criteria for Choosing a Forecasting Model
capital requirements and research and development programs in the alum inum industry. : CONCLUSIONS Forecasting the use of conservation techndlo gies with a market penetration model provides la more accountable method of projecting aggrega...
Lang, K.
Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996
This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.
Forecasting Turbulent Modes with Nonparametric Diffusion Models
This paper presents a nonparametric diffusion modeling approach for forecasting partially observed noisy turbulent modes. The proposed forecast model uses a basis of smooth functions (constructed with the diffusion maps algorithm) to represent probability densities, so that the forecast model becomes a linear map in this basis. We estimate this linear map by exploiting a previously established rigorous connection between the discrete time shift map and the semi-group solution associated to the backward Kolmogorov equation. In order to smooth the noisy data, we apply diffusion maps to a delay embedding of the noisy data, which also helps to account for the interactions between the observed and unobserved modes. We show that this delay embedding biases the geometry of the data in a way which extracts the most predictable component of the dynamics. The resulting model approximates the semigroup solutions of the generator of the underlying dynamics in the limit of large data and in the observation noise limit. We will show numerical examples on a wide-range of well-studied turbulent modes, including the Fourier modes of the energy conserving Truncated Burgers-Hopf (TBH) model, the Lorenz-96 model in weakly chaotic to fully turbulent regimes, and the barotropic modes of a quasi-geostrophic model with baroclinic instabilities. In these examples, forecasting skills of the nonparametric diffusion model are compared to a wide-range of stochastic parametric modeling approaches, which account for the nonlinear interactions between the observed and unobserved modes with white and colored noises.
Tyrus Berry; John Harlim
Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide
' · Empirical models quantify our ability to predict without knowing the laws of physics · Climatology skill' model? 2. Dynamic climatology (DC) is a more appropriate benchmark for near- term (initialised) climate forecasts · A conditional climatology, initialised at launch and built from the historical archive
> BUREAU HOME > AUSTRALIA > QUEENSLAND > FORECASTS MARINE SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS FOR QUEENSLAND across Australia. FURTHER INFORMATION: www.bom.gov.au/NexGenFWS © Commonwealth of Australia, 2013 From © Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2013, Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Australia Coastal Waters Zones
Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast
regression and splines are combined to model the prediction error from Tunø Knob wind power plant. This data of the thesis is quantile regression and splines in the context of wind power modeling. Lyngby, February 2006Modeling of Uncertainty in Wind Energy Forecast Jan Kloppenborg Møller Kongens Lyngby 2006 IMM-2006
Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns
Forecasting sudden changes in environmental pollution patterns María J. Olascoagaa,1 and George of Mexico in 2010. We present a methodology to predict major short-term changes in en- vironmental River's mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. The resulting fire could not be extinguished and the drilling rig
Olascoaga, Maria Josefina
Amending Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts using GPS
to validate the amounts of humidity in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. This paper presents. Satellite images and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are used together with the synoptic surface. In this paper, a case is presented for which the operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWP) HIRLAM
Stoffelen, Ad
Facebook IPO updated valuation and user forecasting
Facebook IPO � updated valuation and user forecasting Based on: Amendment No. 6 to Form S-1 (May 9. Peter Cauwels and Didier Sornette, Quis pendit ipsa pretia: facebook valuation and diagnostic Extreme Growth JPMPaper Cauwels and Sornette 840 1110 1820 S1- filing- May 9 2012 1006 1105 1371 Facebook
FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016
#12;FORECAST OF VACANCIES Until end of 2016 (Issue No. 22) #12;Page 2 OVERVIEW OF BASIC REQUIREMENTS FOR PROFESSIONAL VACANCIES IN THE IAEA Education, Experience and Skills: Professional staff the team of professionals. Second half 2015 VACANCY GRADE REQUIREMENTS / ROLE EXPECTED DATE OF VACANCY
Segmenting Time Series for Weather Forecasting
) models is summarised as weather forecast texts. In the domain of gas turbines, sensor data from an operational gas turbine is summarised for the maintenance engineers. More details on SUMTIME have been to develop a generic model for summarisation of time series data. Initially, we have applied standard
Sripada, Yaji
Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies
To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation. We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.
Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Ning
Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price forecast of the Fifth Northwest Power
Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast This appendix describes the wholesale electricity price as traded on the wholesale, short-term (spot) market at the Mid-Columbia trading hub. This price represents noted. BASE CASE FORECAST The base case wholesale electricity price forecast uses the Council's medium
Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint
This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.
Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast accuracy. However, no studies have been reported, the application of electricity market price forecasts to short-term operation scheduling of two typical
Cañizares, Claudio A.
Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project
1 Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models Results of the Anemos Project I. Martí1.firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract An outstanding question posed today by end-users like power system operators, wind power producers or traders is what performance can be expected by state-of-the-art wind power prediction models. This paper
Improved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar
sensitive areas. To answer these questions simulation experiments with state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have proved great value to test future meteorological observing systems a prioriImproved forecasts of extreme weather events by future space borne Doppler wind lidar Gert
Marseille, Gert-Jan
European Wind Energy Conference -Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power forecasting
European Wind Energy Conference - Brussels, Belgium, April 2008 Data mining for wind power-term forecasting of wind energy produc- tion up to 2-3 days ahead is recognized as a major contribution the improvement of predic- tion systems performance is recognised as one of the priorities in wind energy research
most are government agencies --local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put together
most are government agencies -- local, national and international. A ten-year industry forecast put environmental, civil government, defence and security, and transportation as the most active market segments combine geographic information systems with satellite data are in demand in a variety of disciplines
Wisconsin at Madison, University of
Global Energy Management System
? Prize continues to grow -- 500-1000 M$/yr depending on energy prices ? Higher energy prices -- crude oil and natural gas ? Identification of additional and new opportunities ? Adds outpacing drops by greater than 2.5 : 1 margin ? Benefit capture... approaching 50 % -- mainly no/low cost optimizations ? Potential to reduce GHG emissions about 10 million tonnes per year GEMS PRIZE CAPTURE 1998 2004 Prices Drops Adds $ 500-1000 M$/yr Depending on Energy Prices Benefit Capture ~ 45 % Remaining...
Eidt, B. D.
accuracy integrated global: Topics by E-print Network
Cortical systems for local and global integration in discourse comprehension Giovanna Egidi a, Biology and Medicine Websites Summary: Cortical systems for local and global...
Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications
The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)
Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.
Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach
A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.
Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David
Global interrupt and barrier networks
A system and method for generating global asynchronous signals in a computing structure. Particularly, a global interrupt and barrier network is implemented that implements logic for generating global interrupt and barrier signals for controlling global asynchronous operations performed by processing elements at selected processing nodes of a computing structure in accordance with a processing algorithm; and includes the physical interconnecting of the processing nodes for communicating the global interrupt and barrier signals to the elements via low-latency paths. The global asynchronous signals respectively initiate interrupt and barrier operations at the processing nodes at times selected for optimizing performance of the processing algorithms. In one embodiment, the global interrupt and barrier network is implemented in a scalable, massively parallel supercomputing device structure comprising a plurality of processing nodes interconnected by multiple independent networks, with each node including one or more processing elements for performing computation or communication activity as required when performing parallel algorithm operations. One multiple independent network includes a global tree network for enabling high-speed global tree communications among global tree network nodes or sub-trees thereof. The global interrupt and barrier network may operate in parallel with the global tree network for providing global asynchronous sideband signals.
Blumrich, Matthias A. (Ridgefield, CT); Chen, Dong (Croton-On-Hudson, NY); Coteus, Paul W. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Gara, Alan G. (Mount Kisco, NY); Giampapa, Mark E (Irvington, NY); Heidelberger, Philip (Cortlandt Manor, NY); Kopcsay, Gerard V. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D. (Mount Kisco, NY); Takken, Todd E. (Mount Kisco, NY)
Solar Wind Forecasting with Coronal Holes
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric magnetograms (e.g., Wang-Sheeley model) to estimate the open field line configuration. Rather than requiring the use of a full magnetic synoptic map, the method presented here can be used to forecast solar wind velocities and magnetic polarity from a single coronal hole image, along with a single magnetic full-disk image. The coronal hole parameters used in this study are estimated with Kitt Peak Vacuum Telescope He I 1083 nm spectrograms and photospheric magnetograms. Solar wind and coronal hole data for the period between May 1992 and September 2003 are investigated. The new model is found to be accurate to within 10% of observed solar wind measurements for its best one-month periods, and it has a linear correlation coefficient of ~0.38 for the full 11 years studied. Using a single estimated coronal hole map, the model can forecast the Earth directed solar wind velocity up to 8.5 days in advance. In addition, this method can be used with any source of coronal hole area and location data.
S. Robbins; C. J. Henney; J. W. Harvey
Global solutions of restricted open-shell Hartree-Fock theory from semidefinite programming with applications to strongly correlated quantum systems
We present a density matrix approach for computing global solutions of restricted open-shell Hartree-Fock theory, based on semidefinite programming (SDP), that gives upper and lower bounds on the Hartree-Fock energy of quantum systems. While wave function approaches to Hartree-Fock theory yield an upper bound to the Hartree-Fock energy, we derive a semidefinite relaxation of Hartree-Fock theory that yields a rigorous lower bound on the Hartree-Fock energy. We also develop an upper-bound algorithm in which Hartree-Fock theory is cast as a SDP with a nonconvex constraint on the rank of the matrix variable. Equality of the upper- and lower-bound energies guarantees that the computed solution is the globally optimal solution of Hartree-Fock theory. The work extends a previously presented method for closed-shell systems [S. Veeraraghavan and D. A. Mazziotti, Phys. Rev. A 89, 010502�R (2014)]. For strongly correlated systems the SDP approach provides an alternative to the locally optimized Hartree-Fock energies and densities with a certificate of global optimality. Applications are made to the potential energy curves of C{sub 2}, CN, Cr {sub 2}, and NO {sub 2}.
Veeraraghavan, Srikant; Mazziotti, David A., E-mail: email@example.com [Department of Chemistry and The James Franck Institute, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (United States)
Stellar Astrophysics Requirements NERSC Forecast
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administrationcontroller systemsBiSiteNeutron Scattering4 ByWatchingStateAbout Us
LANL JOWOG 31 2012 Forecast
Joint Working Group (JOWOG) 31, Nuclear Weapons Engineering, has a particularly broad scope of activities within its charter which emphasizes systems engineering. JOWOG 31 brings together experts from AWE and the national laboratories to address engineering issues associated with warhead design and certification. Some of the key areas of interaction, as addressed by the HOCWOGs are: (1) Engineering Analysis, (2) Hydrodynamic Testing, (3) Environmental Testing, and (4) Model Based Integrated Toolkit (MBIT). Gas Transfer Systems and Condition Monitoring interaction has been moved back to JOWOG 31. The regularly scheduled JOWOG 31 activities are the General Sessions, Executive Sessions, Focused Exchanges and HOCWOGs. General Sessions are scheduled every 12-18 months and are supported by the four design laboratories (AWE, LANL, LLNL, and SNL). Beneficial in educating the next generation of weapons engineers and establishing contacts between AWE and the US laboratory personnel. General Sessions are based on a blend of presentations and workshops centered on various themed subjects directly related to Stockpile Stewardship. HOCWOG meetings are more narrowly focused than the General Sessions. They feature presentations by experts in the field with a greater emphasis on round table discussions. Typically about 20 people attend. Focused exchanges are generally the result of interactions within JOWOG general sessions or HOCWOG meetings. They generally span a very specific topic of current interest within the US and UK.
Vidlak, Anton J. II [Los Alamos National Laboratory
Draft Fourth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan, Appendix D ECONOMIC AND DEMAND FORECASTS
AND DEMAND FORECASTS INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Role of the Demand Forecast A demand forecast of at least 20 years is one of the explicit requirements of the Northwest Power Act. A demand forecast is, of course analysis. Because the future is inherently uncertain, the Council forecasts a range of future demand levels
Managing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty in Electric Grids.
??Electricity generated from wind power is both variable and uncertain. Wind forecasts provide valuable information for wind farm management, but they are not perfect. Chapter� (more)
Mauch, Brandon Keith
Western Area Power Administration Starting Forecast Month: Sierra...
CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource February 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource February 2014 January...
Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource April 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource April 2014 March 2015 Exceedence Level: 90% (Dry)...
Preference Month CVP Generation Project Use First Preference Purchases and Exchanges Base Resource May 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource May 2014 April...
based on Green Book ("Above Normal") values. Base Resource March 2014 Twelve-Month Forecast of CVP Generation and Base Resource March 2014 February 2015 Exceedence Level: 90%...
analytical energy forecasting: Topics by E-print Network
COMMISSION Tom Gorin Lynn Marshall Principal Author Tom Gorin Project 11 Short-Term Solar Energy Forecasting Using Wireless Sensor Networks Computer Technologies and...
Today's Forecast: Improved Wind Predictions | Department of Energy
forecast models for predicting substantial changes in winds at heights important for wind energy up to six hours in advance, allowing grid operators to predict expected wind...
Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series
We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.
Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M
Econometric model and futures markets commodity price forecasting
Versus CCll1rnercial Econometric M:ldels." Uni- versity ofWorking Paper No. 72 ECONOMETRIC ! 'econometric forecasts with the futures
Just, Richard E.; Rausser, Gordon C.
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales
Using Customers' Reported Forecasts to Predict Future Sales Nihat Altintas , Alan Montgomery , Michael Trick Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. nihat
Gordon, Geoffrey J.
Structural Design Feasibility Study for the Global Climate Experiment
Neon, Inc. is proposing to establish a Global Change Experiment (GCE) Facility to increase our understanding of how ecological systems differ in their vulnerability to changes in climate and other relevant global change drivers, as well as provide the mechanistic basis for forecasting ecological change in the future. The experimental design was initially envisioned to consist of two complementary components; (A) a multi-factor experiment manipulating CO{sub 2}, temperature and water availability and (B) a water balance experiment. As the design analysis and cost estimates progressed, it became clear that (1) the technical difficulties of obtaining tight temperature control and maintaining elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels within an enclosure were greater than had been expected and (2) the envisioned study would not fit into the expected budget envelope if this was done in a partially or completely enclosed structure. After discussions between NEON management, the GCE science team, and Keith Lewin, NEON, Inc. requested Keith Lewin to expand the scope of this design study to include open-field exposure systems. In order to develop the GCE design to the point where it can be presented within a proposal for funding, a feasibility study of climate manipulation structures must be conducted to determine design approaches and rough cost estimates, and to identify advantages and disadvantages of these approaches including the associated experimental artifacts. NEON, Inc requested this design study in order to develop concepts for the climate manipulation structures to support the NEON Global Climate Experiment. This study summarizes the design concepts considered for constructing and operating the GCE Facility and their associated construction, maintenance and operations costs. Comparisons and comments about experimental artifacts, construction challenges and operational uncertainties are provided to assist in selecting the final facility design. The overall goal of this report is to provide a cost and technological basis for selection of the appropriate GCE Facility design.
Lewin,K.F.; Nagy, J.
State-of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned and the road ahead
of-the art of freight forecast modeling: lessons learned andof goods as well as to forecast the expected future truckused for the short-term forecasts of freight volumes on
Chow, Joseph Y.; Yang, Choon Heon; Regan, Amelia C.
Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices
revisions to the EIA�s natural gas price forecasts in AEOsolely on the AEO 2005 natural gas price forecasts willComparison of AEO 2005 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX
Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan
Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
to estimate the base-case natural gas price forecast, but toComparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEXs reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from
Bolinger, Mark A.
Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller
Electricity Demand Forecasting using Gaussian Processes Manuel Blum and Martin Riedmiller Abstract We present an electricity demand forecasting algorithm based on Gaussian processes. By introducing. Introduction Electricity demand forecasting is an important aspect of the control and scheduling of power
Teschner, Matthias
Reducing the demand forecast error due to the bullwhip effect in the computer processor industry
Intel's current demand-forecasting processes rely on customers' demand forecasts. Customers do not revise demand forecasts as demand decreases until the last minute. Intel's current demand models provide little guidance ...
Smith, Emily (Emily C.)
Evaluation of forecasting techniques for short-term demand of air transportation
Forecasting is arguably the most critical component of airline management. Essentially, airlines forecast demand to plan the supply of services to respond to that demand. Forecasts of short-term demand facilitate tactical ...
Wickham, Richard Robert
Wind Forecasting Improvement Project | Department of Energy
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul(Summary) "of EnergyEnergyENERGYWomen Owned SmallOf TheViolations | Department of EnergyisWilliamForecasting
Renewable Forecast Min-Max2020.xls
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the1 -the Mid-Infrared at 278, 298,NIST31 ORV 15051SoilWind Energy Wind RenewableForecast
Forecast calls for better models | EMSL
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunDatastreamsmmcrcalgovInstrumentsruc DocumentationP-SeriesFlickr Flickr Editor's note: Since theNational SupplementalFor theForecast
NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Facilities
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecasting
NREL: Resource Assessment and Forecasting - Research Staff
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmosphericNuclear Security Administration the Contributions andData and Resources NREL resource assessment and forecastingResearch
Global Warming
AFDC Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page to someone by E-mail Share EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Facebook Tweet about EERE: Alternative Fuels Data Center Home Page on Twitter Bookmark EERE:1 First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel),Feet) Year Jan Feb Mar Apr MayAtmospheric Optical Depth7-1D: Vegetation ProposedUsingFun with Big Sky LearningGet Assistance GetGiantOn The VergeGlobal Threat1 Global
P h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane Forecast Improvement
forecasts for individual storms and improved seasonal forecast of the ocean thermal energy availableP h y s i c a l O c e a n o g r a p h y D i v i s i o n Optimizing Ocean Observations for Hurricane to provide NOAA the ability to evaluate new ocean observing systems, and alternate deployments of existing
A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO
A Global View on the Wind Sea and Swell Climate and Variability from ERA-40 ALVARO SEMEDO 2010) ABSTRACT In this paper a detailed global climatology of wind-sea and swell parameters, based on the 45-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) wave reanalysis
Global Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrological System. Part I: Comparison to GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates
In earth system models, the partitioning of precipitation among the variations of continental water storage climate system sim- ulated by earth system models (ESMs). The continental freshwater reservoirs represent
Ribes, Aurélien
coming from an MRP system. They consider demand forecasts as advance demand information. The accuracy a capacitated forecasting-production-inventory system with a stationary demand process and forecast updates1 IMPACTS OF ADVANCE DEMAND INFORMATION IN MULTI-CLASS PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS Seda Tepe
Karaesmen, Fikri
Solar irradiance forecasting at multiple time horizons and novel methods to evaluate uncertainty
114 Solar Irradiance And Power Output Variabilityand L. Bangyin. Online 24-h solar power forecasting based onNielsen. Online short-term solar power forecasting. Solar
Marquez, Ricardo
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix B: Economic Forecast Role of the Economic Forecast ................................................................................................. 2 Economic Drivers of Residential Demand
Improving baseline forecasts in a 500-industry dynamic CGE model of the USA.
??MONASH-style CGE models have been used to generate baseline forecasts illustrating how an economy is likely to evolve through time. One application of such forecasts� (more)
Mavromatis, Peter George
Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA
In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing �quasi-deterministic� components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.
Hou, Zhangshuan; Etingov, Pavel V.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Samaan, Nader A.
Distribution Based Data Filtering for Financial Time Series Forecasting
recent past. In this paper, we address the challenge of forecasting the behavior of time series firstname.lastname@example.com Abstract. Changes in the distribution of financial time series, particularly stock market prices, can of stock prices, which aims to forecast the future values of the price of a stock, in order to obtain
Bailey, James
On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer
On the reliability of seasonal forecasts Antje Weisheimer Weisheimer to achieving a "5"? à Use reliability of non-climatological forecastsDon: · if (X) C(X) à climatological (reliable) informaDon · if (X) C(X) à
SATELLITE BASED SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SOLAR IRRADANCE - COMPARISON OF METHODS AND ERROR Forecasting of solar irradiance will become a major issue in the future integration of solar energy resources method was used to derive motion vector fields from two consecutive images. The future image
Predicting Solar Generation from Weather Forecasts Using Machine Learning
of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables existing forecast-based models. I. INTRODUCTION A key goal of smart grid efforts is to substantially-based prediction models built using seven distinct weather forecast metrics are 27% more accurate for our site than
Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production
- namic reserve quantification [8], for the optimal oper- ation of combined wind-hydro power plants [5, 1Forecasting Uncertainty Related to Ramps of Wind Power Production Arthur Bossavy, Robin Girard - The continuous improvement of the accuracy of wind power forecasts is motivated by the increasing wind power
FORECASTING WATER DEMAND USING CLUSTER AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS by Bruce Bishop Professor of Civil resources resulting in water stress. Effective water management a solution Supply side management Demand side management #12;Developing a regression equation based on cluster analysis for forecasting water
Keller, Arturo A.
Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast Principal Author: Ben Arikawa
Revised 1997 Retail Electricity Price Forecast March 1998 Principal Author: Ben Arikawa Electricity 1997 FORE08.DOC Page 1 CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION ELECTRICITY ANALYSIS OFFICE REVISED 1997 RETAIL ELECTRICITY PRICE FORECAST Introduction The Electricity Analysis Office of the California Energy Commission
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center: The Regime at wind energy sites are becoming paramount. Regime-switching space-time (RST) models merge meteorological forecast regimes at the wind energy site and fits a conditional predictive model for each regime
Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging
distribution; Numerical weather prediction; Skewed distribution; Truncated data; Wind energy. 1. INTRODUCTION- native. Purely statistical methods have been applied to short-range forecasts for wind speed only a fewProbabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging J. Mc
Raftery, Adrian
Introducing the Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster Aston Chipanshi1
for crop yield forecasting and risk analysis. Using the Census Agriculture Region (CAR) as the unit Climate Decision Support and Adaptation, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1011, Innovation Blvd, Saskatoon, SK S7V 1B7, Canada The Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (CCYF) is a statistical modelling tool
Miami, University of
A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size
A Transformed Lagged Ensemble Forecasting Technique for Increasing Ensemble Size Andrew. firstname.lastname@example.com #12;Abstract An ensemble-based data assimilation approach is used to transform old en- semble. The impact of the transformations are propagated for- ward in time over the ensemble's forecast period
Hansens, Jim
Forecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network James Howard
of the forecasting algorithm for the different conditions. 1. INTRODUCTION According to the U.S. Department of Energy could take advantage of times when electricity cost is lower, to chill a cold water storage tankForecasting Building Occupancy Using Sensor Network Data James Howard Colorado School of Mines
Hoff, William A.
Voluntary Green Power Market Forecast through 2015
Various factors influence the development of the voluntary 'green' power market--the market in which consumers purchase or produce power from non-polluting, renewable energy sources. These factors include climate policies, renewable portfolio standards (RPS), renewable energy prices, consumers' interest in purchasing green power, and utilities' interest in promoting existing programs and in offering new green options. This report presents estimates of voluntary market demand for green power through 2015 that were made using historical data and three scenarios: low-growth, high-growth, and negative-policy impacts. The resulting forecast projects the total voluntary demand for renewable energy in 2015 to range from 63 million MWh annually in the low case scenario to 157 million MWh annually in the high case scenario, representing an approximately 2.5-fold difference. The negative-policy impacts scenario reflects a market size of 24 million MWh. Several key uncertainties affect the results of this forecast, including uncertainties related to growth assumptions, the impacts that policy may have on the market, the price and competitiveness of renewable generation, and the level of interest that utilities have in offering and promoting green power products.
Bird, L.; Holt, E.; Sumner, J.; Kreycik, C.
P. Sandborn and P. Singh, "Forecasting Technology Insertion Concurrent with Design Refresh Planning for COTS-Based Electronics Systems," Logistics Spectrum, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 25-28, April-June 2004.
of sustainment-dominated systems include: avionics, military systems, and industrial equipment. Such products with their redesign due to stringent qualification/certification requirements. Ultimately systems are redesigned one-recurring engineering and system re-qualification costs. Unlike high-volume commercial products in which redesign
Verification of hourly forecasts of wind turbine power output
A verification of hourly average wind speed forecasts in terms of hourly average power output of a MOD-2 was performed for four sites. Site-specific probabilistic transformation models were developed to transform the forecast and observed hourly average speeds to the percent probability of exceedance of an hourly average power output. (This transformation model also appears to have value in predicting annual energy production for use in wind energy feasibility studies.) The transformed forecasts were verified in a deterministic sense (i.e., as continuous values) and in a probabilistic sense (based upon the probability of power output falling in a specified category). Since the smoothing effects of time averaging are very pronounced, the 90% probability of exceedance was built into the transformation models. Semiobjective and objective (model output statistics) forecasts were made compared for the four sites. The verification results indicate that the correct category can be forecast an average of 75% of the time over a 24-hour period. Accuracy generally decreases with projection time out to approx. 18 hours and then may increase due to the fairly regular diurnal wind patterns that occur at many sites. The ability to forecast the correct power output category increases with increasing power output because occurrences of high hourly average power output (near rated) are relatively rare and are generally not forecast. The semiobjective forecasts proved superior to model output statistics in forecasting high values of power output and in the shorter time frames (1 to 6 hours). However, model output statistics were slightly more accurate at other power output levels and times. Noticeable differences were observed between deterministic and probabilistic (categorical) forecast verification results.
Wegley, H.L.
Global tree network for computing structures enabling global processing operations
A system and method for enabling high-speed, low-latency global tree network communications among processing nodes interconnected according to a tree network structure. The global tree network enables collective reduction operations to be performed during parallel algorithm operations executing in a computer structure having a plurality of the interconnected processing nodes. Router devices are included that interconnect the nodes of the tree via links to facilitate performance of low-latency global processing operations at nodes of the virtual tree and sub-tree structures. The global operations performed include one or more of: broadcast operations downstream from a root node to leaf nodes of a virtual tree, reduction operations upstream from leaf nodes to the root node in the virtual tree, and point-to-point message passing from any node to the root node. The global tree network is configurable to provide global barrier and interrupt functionality in asynchronous or synchronized manner, and, is physically and logically partitionable.
Blumrich; Matthias A. (Ridgefield, CT); Chen, Dong (Croton-On-Hudson, NY); Coteus, Paul W. (Yorktown Heights, NY); Gara, Alan G. (Mount Kisco, NY); Giampapa, Mark E. (Irvington, NY); Heidelberger, Philip (Cortlandt Manor, NY); Hoenicke, Dirk (Ossining, NY); Steinmacher-Burow, Burkhard D. (Mount Kisco, NY); Takken, Todd E. (Mount Kisco, NY); Vranas, Pavlos M. (Bedford Hills, NY)
Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy
The focus of this report is the wind forecasting system developed during this contract period with results of performance through the end of 2010. The report is intentionally high-level, with technical details disseminated at various conferences and academic papers. At the end of 2010, Xcel Energy managed the output of 3372 megawatts of installed wind energy. The wind plants span three operating companies1, serving customers in eight states2, and three market structures3. The great majority of the wind energy is contracted through power purchase agreements (PPAs). The remainder is utility owned, Qualifying Facilities (QF), distributed resources (i.e., 'behind the meter'), or merchant entities within Xcel Energy's Balancing Authority footprints. Regardless of the contractual or ownership arrangements, the output of the wind energy is balanced by Xcel Energy's generation resources that include fossil, nuclear, and hydro based facilities that are owned or contracted via PPAs. These facilities are committed and dispatched or bid into day-ahead and real-time markets by Xcel Energy's Commercial Operations department. Wind energy complicates the short and long-term planning goals of least-cost, reliable operations. Due to the uncertainty of wind energy production, inherent suboptimal commitment and dispatch associated with imperfect wind forecasts drives up costs. For example, a gas combined cycle unit may be turned on, or committed, in anticipation of low winds. The reality is winds stayed high, forcing this unit and others to run, or be dispatched, to sub-optimal loading positions. In addition, commitment decisions are frequently irreversible due to minimum up and down time constraints. That is, a dispatcher lives with inefficient decisions made in prior periods. In general, uncertainty contributes to conservative operations - committing more units and keeping them on longer than may have been necessary for purposes of maintaining reliability. The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.
Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.
Waste generation forecast for DOE-ORO`s Environmental Restoration OR-1 Project: FY 1995-FY 2002, September 1994 revision
A comprehensive waste-forecasting task was initiated in FY 1991 to provide a consistent, documented estimate of the volumes of waste expected to be generated as a result of U.S. Department of Energy-Oak Ridge Operations (DOE-ORO) Environmental Restoration (ER) OR-1 Project activities. Continual changes in the scope and schedules for remedial action (RA) and decontamination and decommissioning (D&D) activities have required that an integrated data base system be developed that can be easily revised to keep pace with changes and provide appropriate tabular and graphical output. The output can then be analyzed and used to drive planning assumptions for treatment, storage, and disposal (TSD) facilities. The results of this forecasting effort and a description of the data base developed to support it are provided herein. The initial waste-generation forecast results were compiled in November 1991. Since the initial forecast report, the forecast data have been revised annually. This report reflects revisions as of September 1994.
Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research
Global Health Research | 2 Global Health Research Supporting researchers in low- and middle-income countries to carry out health- related research within their own countries. Gl bal Health #12;3 | Global Health Research #12;Global Health Research | 4 We are a global charitable foundation dedicated
Rambaut, Andrew
Global Evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP Continental Hydrological System. Part II: Uncertainties in River Routing Simulation Related to Flow
the entire globe. RRMs have been introduced into earth system models (ESMs) to convert the runoff simulated
Use of Statistical Entropy and Life Cycle Analysis to Evaluate Global Warming Potential of Waste Management Systems
of conservation of mass [4]. In order to fully account for the flows of materials through waste management systems Management Systems Scott Kaufman, Eilhann Kwon, Nikhil Krishnan, Marco Castaldi, Nickolas Themelis Earth management systems involving thermal treatment. Now, a simple lifecycle "net energy" metric � encompassing
Columbia University
Global-to-local incompatibility, monogamy of entanglement, and ground-state dimerization: Theory and observability of quantum frustration in systems with competing interactions
Frustration in quantum many body systems is quantified by the degree of incompatibility between the local and global orders associated, respectively, to the ground states of the local interaction terms and the global ground state of the total many-body Hamiltonian. This universal measure is bounded from below by the ground-state bipartite block entanglement. For many-body Hamiltonians that are sums of two-body interaction terms, a further inequality relates quantum frustration to the pairwise entanglement between the constituents of the local interaction terms. This additional bound is a consequence of the limits imposed by monogamy on entanglement shareability. We investigate the behavior of local pair frustration in quantum spin models with competing interactions on different length scales and show that valence bond solids associated to exact ground-state dimerization correspond to a transition from generic frustration, i.e. geometric, common to classical and quantum systems alike, to genuine quantum frustration, i.e. solely due to the non-commutativity of the different local interaction terms. We discuss how such frustration transitions separating genuinely quantum orders from classical-like ones are detected by observable quantities such as the static structure factor and the interferometric visibility.
S. M. Giampaolo; B. C. Hiesmayr; F. Illuminati
Long range global warming
This paper explores one of the causes of global warming that is often overlooked, the direct heating of the environment by engineering systems. Most research and studies of global warming concentrate on the modification that is occurring to atmospheric air as a result of pollution gases being added by various systems; i.e., refrigerants, nitrogen oxides, ozone, hydrocarbons, halon, and others. This modification affects the thermal radiation balance between earth, sun and space, resulting in a decrease of radiation outflow and a slow rise in the earth`s steady state temperature. For this reason the solution to the problem is perceived as one of cleaning up the processes and effluents that are discharged into the environment. In this paper arguments are presented that suggest, that there is a far more serious cause for global warming that will manifest itself in the next two or three centuries; direct heating from the exponential growth of energy usage by humankind. Because this is a minor contributor to the global warming problem at present, it is overlooked or ignored. Energy use from the combustion of fuels and from the output of nuclear reactions eventually is manifest as warming of the surroundings. Thus, as energy is used at an ever increasing rate the consequent global warming also increases at an ever increasing rate. Eventually this rate will become equal to a few percent of solar radiation. When this happens the earth`s temperature will have risen by several degrees with catastrophic results. The trends in world energy use are reviewed and some mathematical models are presented to suggest future scenarios. These models can be used to predict when the global warming problem will become undeniably apparent, when it will become critical, and when it will become catastrophic.
Rolle, K.C.; Pulkrabek, W.W.; Fiedler, R.A. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Platteville, WI (United States)
Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.
Website Policies and Important Links
Search capabilities provided by DOE/OSTI