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YouGov - Politicshttps://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/2015-07-07T00:14:57+00:00YouGovComment: Greece should leave the EU, not just the EurozonePeter firstname.lastname@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/06/greece-should-leave-eu-not-just-eurozone/
If referendums must be held, certain rules are vital, and this weekend Greece broke many of them

In a glass cabinet in the Acropolis Museum in Athens are some shaped stone pebbles that look like outsized buttons. They are almost 2,500 years old and testify to the world's first experiment with democracy. Citizens (admittedly only men who met certain criteria) could vote on issues of the day by dropping their pebble into one of two urns, one for "yes", the other for "no". (An echo of that era is the word "psephology", for the study of elections. The word was minted sixty years ago by an Oxford academic, drawing on the Greek word for pebble: "psephos".)

On Sunday, Greeks voted in a referendum which has been as much a corruption of democracy as their practice of voting two-and-a-half millennia ago was a noble innovation.

This blog does not discuss the rival merits of Grexit or Greece staying in the euro but something that is, or should be, far more important: the operation of democracy.

I have written before about the general dangers of referendums (eg: this Prospect blog). However, if they are to be held, certain rules are vital:

The choice must be clear

There must be enough time for rival campaigns to organise themselves and make their case

Those rival campaigns must have fair and, as far as possible, equal access to the electorate.

When the Government of the day seeks a particular outcome, it should not abuse its position (for example by taking sensitive decisions close to polling day, or dominating the airwaves).

The decision is one that settles an issue for years, and preferably decades, to come; referendums should decide fundamental constitutional issues, not immediate economic tactics, however momentous.

Much of the early debate about Britain's coming in-out referendum on the European Union has concerned the operation of these rules: the wording of the question on the ballot paper, campaign spending limits and the extent to which David Cameron and his ministers should go into policy-purdah in the final weeks.

However, to list those rules is to show how outrageously Greece's Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has behaved. The choice was not clear (would a "no" majority mean Grexit or not?), no time has been allowed for rival campaigns to organise, access to the electorate is completely lop-sided and Tsipras was determined to use his position to dominate debate.

Finally, nothing has been settled. Tsipras insisted on Sunday night that his mandate was to negotiate a better deal for Greece within the Eurozone. But what if Greece's creditors decline to offer such a deal, and either force the country out of the Eurozone or, in essence, refuse to budge on the offer that 61% of Greek voters rejected? Daily life may quickly deteriorate in a way that the "no" majority did not wish or expect. Should we prepare for another referendum next week? If so, why should we expect its mandate to enjoy any greater durability?

These are not trivial issues. The European Union exists in large measure as a reaction against Europe's twentieth-century communist, fascist and Nazi tyrants – tyrants who frequently used perverted plebiscites to give their regimes the appearance of legitimacy. This weekend's referendum in Greece looked more like one of those horrors than anything that can be truly called democratic. If this is how Greece is to take big decisions, then the real issue for the rest of our continent is not whether it should remain in the Eurozone but whether it should be allowed to stay in the EU at all.

This blog updates a commentary that appeared last week in Prospect
Majority approval for RAF air strikes in SyriaWilliam firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/05/most-would-approve-raf-air-strikes-syria/
The majority of the British public would back an expansion of RAF air strikes against ISIS, and support for sending ground troops to the region is at an all-time high

This week defence secretary Michael Fallon urged MPs to consider expanding Britain's involvement in the air campaign against ISIS into Syria. The latest tracking poll suggests that such a move would have public support – and following a series of deadly attacks on westerners most of the public want more to be done to combat the terror group.

Support for RAF participation in air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria stands at 57%, with 21% opposed. This is close to the number found in February, when 63% expressed approval, but there is other new evidence that the public remain broadly in favour of the anti-ISIS campaign.

Six in ten tend to think Britain and other Western countries should be doing more to combat ISIS, while only 21% feel they are already doing all they usefully can.

Support for sending British and US ground troops to fight ISIS, meanwhile, is up. Public approval of sending troops now matches disapproval, 39% to 39%, with 22% undecided. In February the public leaned against by 45% to 32%.

Britain has played a relatively small role in the ongoing air campaign, with RAF planes helping to supply aid and occasionally joining bombing missions in Iraq. The defence secretary argues that ISIS control has rendered the Iraq-Syria border meaningless, so Britain's contributions should not be limited by it. The United States already carries out strikes in Syria.

The public (61%) also express support for giving the security services wider powers to collect and monitor ordinary people's communications, something the government is seeking.

There is also support for limits to these powers, however: 55% think placing someone under surveillance should require the approval of a judge, something recommended by a recent independent report on proposed terror legislation.

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British voters side with troika in Greek debt crisisWilliam firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/07/02/british-voters-side-troika-greek-debt-crisis/
41% mostly blame past and present Greek governments, versus 11% who fault the 'troika' of European institutions

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, leader of Greece's left-wing Syriza government, blames the country's current problems on an austerity program that he believes has crushed productivity and sent Greek unemployment skyrocketing.

However, the British public lay more blame for the crisis on the current and previous Greek governments than the 'troika' – the European Union, International Monetary Fund, and European Central Bank – who have called on Athens to raise taxes and lower public spending in return for debt relief.

41% say Athens bears more responsibility for the current Greek debt crisis, versus only 11% who blame the troika. Another 29% say both parties are equally at fault while 18% are unsure either way. This means roughly half of those with an opinion put at least half of the blame on Europe, but the vast majority do the same for Greece.

As previously shown, voters on the British left wing are especially sympathetic to Greece. While 58% of those who voted Conservative in 2015 say Athens is mostly to blame, only 29% of Labour backers agree, which is less than the 33% who say the troika and Greece are equally to blame. However, even among Labour supporters only 18% mostly blame Europe.

Despite the twists and turns in the latest round of talks, British public opinion on what should happen with Greece are little-changed from January, when YouGov last investigated the issue following the Greek elections.

Today, 44% want Europe to take a hard line with Greece and refuse to reduce the country's debt as Syriza has demanded, up from 41% in January. 36% would prefer to reduce and renegotiate Greece's debt, essentially unchanged from before.

A referendum in Greece on the latest offer by the country's frustrated creditors is set to go ahead on Sunday, with eurozone finance ministers ruling out further talks before then. It is unclear what the outcome will be if the public vote to accept or reject the deal, which has expired, but a vote of disapproval would increase the likelihood of a Greek exit from the eurozone.

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Terrorism concerns highest since 7/7Will firstname.lastname@example.com/people/will.dahlgreen/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/30/terrorism-concerns-highest-77/
The deadly attack in Tunisia has pushed fears of a terrorist attack higher than at any time since 2007

Last Friday's attack on holiday makers in Tunisia has heightened terror threat levels across Europe and North Africa. Downing Street has now confirmed the British death toll stands at 22, and this could reach 30 once the identification of victims is complete. Repatriation of bodies will begin on Wednesday, and all seriously injured Britons have now been flown out of Tunisia.

In an unconnected event, police officers, soldiers, emergency services and intelligence officials are taking part in London's largest counter-terrorism excercise, testing responses to extremists using firearms. YouGov polling conducted after the Tunisia attacks finds that British terrorism concerns are slightly higher than they have been at any point since the 7/7 London bombings.

14% of the British public now think there is a very or fairly high chance of a family member or friend being killed or wounded in a terrorist attack, compared to 16% on the day after the 2007 London bombings.

From 2013 onwards, as YouGov has measured fears following the Woolwich attack, ISIS beheadings and shootings at satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, the figure has been between 8% and 10%. 2007 represented a significantly higher level of concern than now, however, as only 13% said the threat level was 'almost non-existent' – now that figure is 19%.

See the full poll results
Comment: Speak for Europe, DavidPeter firstname.lastname@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/28/speak-europe-david/
The advice from Europe's voters to David Cameron could not be clearer: If you want popular support across the Channel for your renegotiation strategy, talk not about what's good for Britain but what's good for Europe

YouGov's latest Eurotracker survey questioned voters in France, Germany and Scandinavia, as well as Britain. Most non-Britons in our survey want Britain to remain in the EU (by big majorities in Germany and Scandinavia, more narrowly in France) – but few people want the EU to make 'significant concessions' to the UK.

When it comes to specifics, however, there is widespread support for some of Cameron's objectives, especially if they are cast as reforms for all EU member states, rather than opt-outs for Britain.

Indeed, EU-wide changes to rules on migrants and welfare might improve the EU's overall reputation. Pessimism about the institution as a whole is not confined to Britain. Of the countries we surveyed, only Denmark has more optimists (48%) than pessimists (37%). The country with by far the bleakest views is France, where pessimists outnumber optimists by five-to-two (65-26%). Britain (optimists 37%, pessimists 48%) is in the middle of the pack. In each case, fewer people in France, Germany and Scandinavia supported changes if they were cast as changes specifically for Britain.

One immediate source of uncertainty is, of course, Greece. Only minorities in the countries we surveyed want Greece to remain in the Eurozone, ranging from 24% (Denmark) to 36% (France). If Greece ends up restoring the drachma, there seems little danger of an immediate public backlash across the continent. But, as so often in politics, minds may change over the longer term as the consequences become clear. If things settle down, the crisis may soon fade; but if we start to see a financial domino effect, with other Eurozone countries coming under pressure, more emergency meetings being held, and more payments needed from richer Eurozone countries, then the mood may well darken.

We should also note that our Eurotracker does not yet include Eastern European countries such as Poland. Views are likely to vary, perhaps greatly, in such countries about both the Eurozone and the rules governing migration and welfare. But if Cameron, arguing for European reform rather than British exceptionalism, can win over Chancellor Markel, President Hollande and the Scandinavians – including the new centre-right government in Denmark – then he could have the political basis for negotiating the kind of deal he wants.

See the full Eurotracker results
Public split on Cameron's welfare cutsWilliam firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/27/public-split-camerons-welfare-cuts/
The areas the public would like to cut or protect don't always line up with government plans

This week David Cameron began to sketch out the government's £12 billion in additional cuts to welfare benefits with a speech in Runcorn. The cuts were part of the Tory platform to eliminate the deficit set out ahead of the election but have yet to be fully explained. Ministers have ruled out cuts to child benefit and pensioner benefits, leaving some question where the £12 billion will come from.

New YouGov research finds that in principle the £12 billion in cutbacks divide the public in two. 40% say the government is in the right, while 42% say they are in the wrong and 19% are unsure.

Looking at individual areas to cut, there is in some areas wider agreement.

A 59% majority of the public back old age benefits like the winter fuel payment and free bus passes. The same number (58%) think child benefit should not be protected despite the government's determination to do so.

Similarly, 55% back restricting the number of people who get out-of-work benefits like jobseekers allowance, something the government has proposed.

However there are two other areas where changes are expected people are more evenly split. 43% favour stopping the housing benefit for under-25s, while 39% are against it. 41% want to restrict benefits for low-paid working people like the working tax credit and the child tax credit. 47% want these benefits protected.

In his speech Cameron said his aim is to stop the welfare "merry-go-round" with low wage working people paying into the system through taxes only to be given the money back in benefits. More detailed plans are expected ahead of next month's Budget.

The prime minister appears to be benefiting from something of a post-election honeymoon in public opinion nearly two months after winning a majority. Half the public continue to approve of how he is doing his job, identical to mid-May. This includes 90% of those who voted Conservative at the latest election, as well as 58% of Lib Dem voters, 47% of Ukip backers and 13% of Labour supporters.

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British deal on migrants divides EuropeWilliam firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/26/british-special-treatment-migrants-divides-europe/
Many people in Europe are open to allowing Britain to accept fewer migrants and asylum seekers than rest of Europe, but many also think this is unfair

Overnight on Thursday EU leaders agreed to relocate 40,000 migrants who have arrived in Greece and Italy over the past two years, with what Italy's PM Matteo Renzi angrily called a "modest" plan to deal with a growing crisis. The UK, Hungary and Bulgaria have been given exemptions to a proposed quota scheme, which aims to redistribute the migrants and asylum seekers across the EU more equitably.

This special treatment couldn't be more divisive among Britain's EU neighbours, according to the latest YouGov EuroTrack survey. Though large numbers in the six EU countries surveyed think it is fair for Britain to accept fewer of these migrants and asylum seekers than the average of other EU countries, in most cases equal numbers say Britain should accept the same number – or more.

Germans, whose country has accepted a disproportionate number of asylum seekers, are especially sceptical of giving Britain an opt-out. Only 37% think it is fair for Britain to accept fewer migrants than other EU countries do, against a combined 53% who think it would only be fair if Britain accept the same number (38%) or more than the average (15%). The French are more evenly divided.

The Nordics are more sympathetic. 47% of Swedes and 54% of Finns say it's fair for Britain to accept fewer migrants.

Even a third (31%) of British voters think it would be fair to treat Britain the same as other states or expect more. 58% say Britain should have a smaller burden.

Britain's opt-out on immigration and asylum policies was reaffirmed in the EU Lisbon Treaty.

The survey also finds that there is wide agreement that the system from relocating migrants and asylum seekers should distribute them across EU states proportionally to a state's population size, rather than distribute them in equal numbers to each EU state.

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European voters want Britain inside the EUWilliam firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/25/europeans-oppose-brexit/
There is support for allowing some of David Cameron's desired EU reforms – just don't call them 'concessions'

European voters would like Britain to stay in the European Union, according to the latest YouGov EuroTrack survey. The majority of the public oppose a so-called Brexit, or a British exit from the EU, in four of six countries surveyed.

David Cameron will lay out his demands for EU renegotiation at a summit in Brussels on Thursday evening. A referendum on British membership to the 28-member union is scheduled for 2017.

Some of Britain's biggest proponents in the poll come from the Nordic states – around six in ten Danes, Swedes and Finns want the United Kingdom to stay 'in'. 59% of Germans also want the UK to remain an EU member. In all four of these countries the number who want the UK to leave the EU is under a quarter of the population.

The French public is especially favourable to Brexit, with a third saying they would prefer if the UK left the union. However, 43% take the opposite view. In Norway, the only non-EU member surveyed, the public is even more divided and only narrowly against Brexit.

Confusion over concessions

Of course, it won't be up to them. What is up to leaders of EU countries is whether the UK should be allowed to renegotiate its relationship with the union ahead of the referendum. The poll finds that in the EU member states surveyed there is little support for making "significant concessions" to the UK, and in fact, in France and Germany many more would advise to make no concessions at all.

This may not be the whole story. When asked about some specific proposals rumoured to be on Cameron's wish list, there is considerable support for granting some of them. One explanation might be that the changes are popular in their own right – when the same respondents are asked whether they would like the reforms to apply in their own country, there is even greater support.

In France, for example, 53% would support giving the UK the power to remove any migrant who has not found work within six months – while 58% want France to have the same power. Only 41% of Finns want to allow the UK to institute a four-year waiting period before EU migrants can claim in-work benefits, but 56% would support giving Finland the ability to do this. When it comes to the most popular of the three proposals outlined in the survey, stopping the payment of child benefits for children living outside of the country providing them, 55% of Germans back allowing the change for the UK and 63% back the change for their own country.

All three proposals are also overwhelmingly popular in Britain itself, each gaining the backing of more than four in five voters.

The survey also includes a version of the referendum question, and finds 44% of the British public in favour of Britain staying in the EU. 38% would vote to leave the EU. 18% either don't know or wouldn't vote. The 6-point lead for "in" is similar to the lead reflected in YouGov's other referendum polls, which use an updated question.

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Europeans relaxed about Grexit, expect it to happenWilliam email@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/25/europeans-expect-grexit-happen-and-few-want-stop-i/
A survey of seven European nations reveals considerable support for Greece leaving the eurozone, and there is a general expectation that it will happen anyway

Late-night negotiations between Greece and its international creditors have failed to produce a deal, with time quickly running out. The European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) want Greece to agree to more austerity, something Greek PM Alexis Tsipras and his government adamantly oppose. The alternative to a deal is probably that Greece defaults on its debts, something that could lead to Greece exiting the eurozone, the so-called 'Grexit'.

The latest YouGov EuroTrack survey finds that many in Europe are on balance supportive of Grexit. However only Germans back Greece leaving the eurozone by a majority, with 53% in favor and 29% against. Seven countries in Northern Europe were surveyed, including six members of the EU and three countries in the eurozone.

Outside of Finland, where 47% back a Grexit, support is generally much lower. In Britain only a third (35%) of voters want Greece to go, though that's more than the 26% who want them to stay. The French public are essentially divided on the issue, with 33% in favour of Grexit and 36% against.

The undecided camp is sizeable in several countries, particularly those that do not use the euro – 38% in Britain are unsure where they stand, along with 40% in Sweden and 39% in Norway, the only non-EU member surveyed.

There is more agreement about whether Grexit will actually happen. In each country, more say its likely than not that Greece will leave the eurozone. This includes the majority of people in Denmark (62%), Britain (59%) and Germany (56%).

In 2011 and 2012, in the depths of the eurozone crisis analysts believed a Greek exit might cause a catastrophic chain reaction, pushing the eurozone's most vulnerable economies to default and leave the currency union. Now it is largely thought the worst effects of a Grexit on Europe could be contained, but the situation remains unpredictable.

In YouGov's January EuroTrack survey people in these same seven countries already leaned towards the idea that it would be good rather than bad if Greece left the eurozone.

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Guest Comment: Only Westminster cares about left or rightGuest /people/guest/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/24/only-westminster-cares-about-left-or-right/
James Frayne of Policy Exchange argues politicans need to start thinking like the voters themselves – and that means abandoning the traditional language of politics

It's commonplace to hear the opinion that those of us that work in and around Westminster are out of touch with ordinary voters. It's true; collectively we are out of touch. It's not just the language we use – when was the last time you heard a family member talk about "radical reform"? - but our policy priorities are often different too. However, the biggest difference we have with the mass of ordinary voters is in the overall framework in which we view the world.

Essentially, most of us in Westminster look at the world through a traditional ideological prism, where "left" and "right" actually mean something. For us, it seems natural, if we lean right, to believe in a small state, with lower taxes, choice in public services and a robust attitude to welfare reform and law enforcement. If we lean left, it seems natural to believe in an active role for the state, generous welfare, wholly state-run public services and a liberal attitude towards crime and justice and immigration.

And yet many, if not most, voters find this approach baffling. This was clear from the major study of the country's marginal seats that we conducted with YouGov before the election. This research programme made it clear that ordinary voters view politics and society entirely differently. They see the world through the prism of their fundamental values – above all, of family and fairness. The entire concept of left and right means nothing to them – and we're the strange ones for subscribing to it.

These two values - of family and fairness – were the stated top values of the voters that we polled in marginal seats and across the country too. These came well above those values that politicians traditionally seek to project – such as entrepreneurship and ambition. And these values clearly affect their views on pretty much every political issue you care to name.

This values-driven world view explains why ordinary voters hold what we in Westminster might perceive to be a set of contradictory positions on a range of issues. For example, many voters believe in an active role for Government, tougher sentencing, nationalising the public utilities, school discipline, welfare reform, more money for the NHS and tighter immigration laws – and they reject the power of choice and competition in public service reform. There are no politicians that subscribe to such a political platform, let alone any major party. They are a mix of traditionally left-wing and right-wing positions.

But viewed through the prism of family and fairness, they make complete sense. For most voters, running the NHS in its current form, keeping criminals locked up, improving school discipline and nationalising the utilities are about helping their own families - either by protecting them from harm or allowing them to better provide for them materially. Welfare reform and tighter immigration laws in the form of restricted benefits are about the creation of a society that is fair for all – and seen to be fair for all. While these voters can't therefore be understood through conventional ideological analysis, their views are part of a coherent whole.

Our research – which we enhanced with YouGov's extensive new databank, YouGov Profiles – shows that the group of voters that held these values of family and fairness particularly tightly were C1/C2 voters. These voters make up nearly half the population as a whole and, crucially, they make up more than half of the population of the overwhelming majority of England's marginal seats. They're the voters that really decide the outcome of General Election campaigns and the ones that politicians must prioritise in their campaigning.

In seeking to secure their votes – which have been split in past elections between Labour and the Conservatives – it's essential that politicians think about politics in a different way. If politicians endlessly seek to place voters on a linear scale between left and right, the reaction of the public to particular events or policy announcements won't make any sense. Rather, they need to get into the same mindset of the voters themselves – and start to look at the world through the prism of values like family and fairness.

James Frayne is Director of Policy & Strategy at Policy Exchange. He is the author of "Meet the People", which explains what organisations can learn from political campaigns in their reputation management.
Public on climate change: it's not too late yetWill email@example.com/people/will.dahlgreen/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/23/theres-still-time-stop-climate-change/
British people don't think we're past the tipping point on climate change yet – but we expect new technologies to do more good than behavioural changes

Ahead of a pivotal UN summit on climate change later this year, Pope Francis has made a unique intervention into the climate debate, backing scientists who say the effects are mainly man-made and allocating particular responsibility on developed countries. Republicans in America have been critical of the Pope's political interference, but there is little doubt the move will be influential.

Pope Francis says it is not too late for mankind to avert disaster, even at a time when migration to Europe from Africa has intensified and many worry this will only increase as the Earth warms. British people share the Pope's optimism, new YouGov research reveals.

63% of the public say there's still time to avert disaster if we react appropriately and 64% say our focus should be on reducing carbon emissions before it's too late rather than planning how best to cope with a coming crisis.

This view is at odds with climate pessimists who argue that global warming is now irreversible and will result in large parts of the planet becoming uninhabitable, causing mass migration, famine and disease.

Gaia Theory and public opinion

According to James Lovelock, whose influential Gaia Theory depicts the earth as a self-regulating organism, it's too late for in vogue measures such as ethical consumption, carbon offsetting and recycling – 'necessity is the mother of invention', so humans must invent their way out of extinction.

When asked to set aside personal preferences and think about how humans will actually end up reducing carbon emissions, by 46-22% British people think new technologies will be the solution rather than voluntary changes in our behaviour. Adding preferences back into the mix, people tend slightly to wish behavioural changes would do the trick (46-40%).

Lovelock advocates nuclear energy as a technology already able to replace fossil fuels. Setting preferences aside again, the public tend to think it is nuclear that has the capacity to solve carbon dependency over other low-carbon forms (21% compared to hydro on 17% and solar on 15%), despite this being third down the list when asked their own first choice.

2014 was the warmest year on record, and 14 out of the 15 hottest years have been this century. Meetings in Switzerland earlier this year to agree on a formal draft text for negotiations at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris were constructive, however delegates acknowledged that the real work is still to come. The Paris conference aims to achieve a legally binding convention on climate change from all nations in the world, with the aim of limiting average global surface temperature increases to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.

See the full poll results
EU Referendum: looking ahead to a difficult campaignFreddie email@example.com/people/freddies/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/22/eu-referendum-looking-ahead/
The 'In' and 'Out' campaigns for the European referendum are not even formed, but an analysis of the different voting groups they will have to appeal to reveals some major challenges ahead

The referendum on British membership of the European Union is at least a year away, possibly two. As of today, there are not even formal campaign organisations on either side. But a new analysis of 49,903 voters from YouGov Profiles reveals some of the challenges that lie ahead for each side. Here are three key findings.

1. There are more than two groups of voters in this debate

Many voters do not yet have an opinion at all on the EU referendum question, and this group will be the hardest fought over when the campaign comes. But even among the people who do have an opinion, the firmly-decided on each side have very different characteristics to the voters who are leaning one way or the other but still 'in play' for both sides.

Looking at these as four groups instead of two, and scanning for the attributes that make them distinct, you see that they are particularly dominant in different demographic groups and different areas of the country. For each campaign, most of the voters who are already decided are in the bag – the challenge will be to shore up the votes that are so far only leaning, without alienating the core.

2. The attitudes of definite 'inners' are totally different to leaning 'inners'

All members of YouGov are regularly presented with attitudes and asked whether they agree with them or not – we use over 300 statements covering everything from politics to shopping and thoughts on life. If you identify a group such as one of these elector groups, YouGov Profiles can reveal which attitudes are disproportionately popular in that group compared with everyone else. It is a fascinating way of learning about a group of people without asking them any new questions.

The graphics below show the top ten over-scoring attitudes in the strongly-in group and the leaning-in groups. What is instantly clear is that they are strikingly different types of people, who will respond to very different campaign messages.

From their attitudes, the "definite inners" seem to be defined by a high-minded internationalist spirit, strongly ethical and progressive. This is a group that is asking to be inspired by the political project of Europe, by Britain's diversity and its place in the international order of the future.

Next to it, the top-scoring attitudes of people who are only leaning in seem very different. Firstly, politics is nowhere to be seen: this is not a group that is defined by its political opinions. The attitudes that define them are primarily aspirational, and connected with lifestyle. They are receptive to advertising, keep up with trends and crucially are happy with their standard of living. To appeal to this group you can see an entirely different campaign taking shape, based on the practical benefits of being in the EU, and its importance to Britain's economy.

The danger within each campaign will be to give too much influence to the evangelists on each side, instead of aiming the messages at the harder-to-reach, less politically engaged voters that will end up deciding the outcome.

3. Like it or not, David Cameron has the most powerful voice

No doubt the campaigners on both sides of the referendum question will be keen to keep it away from the government. David Cameron himself may hope to keep away from the campaign front line. But an analysis of which politicians each group disproportionately likes compared to the rest – ie the people who should be delivering these messages if the campaigns hope to cut through – shows that David Cameron occupies a powerful place.

Looking at the chart above, to the left are the politicians more favoured by definite 'inners' – headed by Caroline Lucas, it's a roll call of pin-ups of the political Left; to the right, most favoured by the definite 'outers', are most of the expected names of the Eurosceptic establishment.

More interesting are the names – or lack of names – among the voters who are not yet sure. The 'leaning in' group only show two political figures as disproportionately popular – David Cameron and Nick Clegg. These are surely the voters that won the Conservatives the general election: busy, practical, and not particularly interested in politics. No other names even cut through. The fact that Mr Cameron also tops the list for the group that is leaning 'out' doubly underlines the power that his voice will carry in the campaign ahead.

The most valuable voters on each side are the ones least interested in politics, and no matter what the die-hards on either side will say, these people will be disproportionately receptive to the pragmatic authority of the prime minister.

Would a fairer voting system be a better system?Peter email@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/22/would-fairer-voting-system-be-better-system/
The pros and cons of proportional representation in the UK

Denmark's elections do not normally attract much interest in Britain. Last week's was an exception; and I propose discussing it – though not for the reason it made the news. For the purposes of my argument it is irrelevant that the losing Prime Minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, is married to Stephen Kinnock.

Rather, my point is that Denmark shows how we could do politics differently in Britain - specifically, how to avoid two of the anomalies that our own election produced last month:

The Conservatives have an absolute majority despite winning only 37% of the UK-wide vote

Ukip and the Greens together won more than 5 million votes but have only two MPs, while the SNP won fewer than 1.5 million votes and have 56 MPs.

The mismatch between votes and seats is not new: the Liberal Democrats have long complained about it; and Labour won an even bigger majority in 2005 with a slightly smaller share of the overall vote than the Tories achieved this time. However, last month's contrast between the SNP and Ukip looks especially indefensible.

Now compare this with what happened in Denmark. Ten political parties arranged themselves into two loose alliances (though not always comfortably). The five right-of-centre parties won 52% of the vote and 90 mainland seats, while the five left-of-centre parties won 48% and 85 seats. Four more MPs were elected from Greenland and the Faroe islands; if they side with the Left in the new parliament, the Right will still have an overall majority of one.

Here was an election to delight supporters of proportional representation: large and small parties alike represented in parliament in line with their support; and a new government emerging from parties that, together, command an overall majority of voters. Should we adopt the same system here in Britain?

Spoiler alert: my answer later on in this blog is not a firm 'yes' or 'no', but depends on what we want an election to achieve.

Let's start with the way Denmark's system works. Its mainland is divided into ten multi-member constituencies that, together, choose 135 MPs. This gives a broadly proportional result, except for parties with well under 10% support, which tend to lose out. Forty more MPs are elected nationally, under a top-up formula, to ensure that the overall representation is almost exactly proportional. Thus Ms Thorning-Schmidt's social democrats, the largest party, won 26.3% of the mainland votes and 26.8% of the seats (47 out of 175), while the smallest party in the new parliament, the Conservative Peoples' Party, won 3.4% of the vote and 3.4% of the seats (six).

Suppose we scaled this up to a 650-seat House of Commons. We would elect 500 MPs from 37 multi-member constituencies, with a top-up of 150. Applied to last month's vote-shares, this is how the outcome would have compared with what actually happened:

To remain in government, David Cameron would have needed to combine with Ukip's Nigel Farage and, possibly, Northern Ireland's unionists.

Would this be better for Britain than the House of Commons we now have? Here are some of the advantages and disadvantages

Advantages:

 A Conservative-Ukip-unionist coalition parties would, just, enjoy the support of a majority of the people who voted in the general election

For those interested in fairness, one in eight MPs would represent Ukip, and one in twenty would have represented the Greens, in line with their share of the vote

Ukip would have ministers in a Tory-led coalition government (though not everyone will agree this is a good thing)

Instead of virtually all of Scotland's MPs coming from the SNP, the pro-union parties would have almost half of Scotland's MPs, reflecting the fact that they won almost half of Scotland's votes.

In England, the contrast between Tory south and Labour north, greatly exaggerated by first-past-the-post, would greatly diminish. Both main parties would be well-represented at Westminster by all parts of the country.

The main parties would have to campaign in every corner of Britain, and not just the minority of marginal seats that they are defending or attacking.

The calculations above assume that a proportional system would have produced the same vote-shares for each party as happened last month. In practice, such a system would produce a wider range of parties (as in Denmark) and so more choice. More people could vote for a party they really believed in.

Disadvantages:

Coalitions would be a permanent, rather than occasional, feature of British political life. Governments would often emerge from party horse-trading rather than reflect the specific choice of millions of voters.

Ukip would have ministers in a Tory-led coalition government (though not everyone will agree this is a bad thing)

This year, the likely coalition government might be unstable, and either unable to take tough measures – or be forced by Ukip or the unionists to do things that most voters did not vote for. (In Denmark, although the Right enjoys a narrow overall majority, the government itself is likely to be a minority administration, as the Conservative Peoples' Party says it will not join a formal coalition.)

An average "constituency" would have well over a million electors. The link would be broken between individual MPs and local communities of fewer than 100,000 people

The wider choice of parties under a proportional system would mean greater fragmentation, with politicians under greater pressure to appeal to their own party's narrow, purist base, rather than reach out to the widest possible range of voters.

Under our present system, voters unhappy with a government's record generally know how to vote in order to "throw the rascals out". In a more fragmented, proportional system it can be more difficult for voters to do this, when no big party is ever able to govern on its own and one or more small parties hold the balance of power.

Here's the bottom line. In parliamentary systems, in which the government emerges from, and is answerable to, the legislature, instead of being directly elected (as in France or the United States), there is no system that fully achieves every reasonable objective. That is, we cannot have a system that can be guaranteed to (a) be completely fair to smaller parties, AND (b) maintain a direct link between each MP and a local community AND (c) generate governments that are specifically chosen by millions of voters rather than politicians haggling after the votes have been cast.

If, despite the clear outcome of the Alternative Vote referendum four years ago, we are to reopen a national conversation about the way we elect our MPs, we should at least start from a recognition that no system is ideal and that our choice depends on our priorities. For example: is fairness more important or less important than a clear choice of government? As with so many decisions in grown-up democracies, our quest is not for perfection but the least bad way forward. I grant that's not a terribly inspiring conclusion but, to coin a phrase, it's the inconvenient truth.

PA image
Germans believe "Grexit" is increasingly likely - and desirableMatthias Schmidt and Luke firstname.lastname@example.com/people/msc/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/18/germans-believe-grexit-increasingly-likely/
The proportion of Germans in favour of a Greek exit from the euro zone has risen again in June, and an increasing number of Germans believe that a Greek exit is imminent.

The Greek sovereign debt crisis continues to rumble on, with the Greek government edging ever closer to a default. Last weekend, negotiations were cut short when IMF representatives walked out of talks without reaching a deal. Although talks are still being held on several levels, a growing number of experts and politicians believe that Greece will soon be leaving the Euro.

The latest research from YouGov Germany shows that an increasing number of Germans think a Greek exit in the coming months is likely as well.

Around half of the respondents (49 percent) think it is "somewhat" or "very likely" that Greece leaves the euro zone in the next six months, whereas 41 percent believe it is "somewhat" or "very unlikely". When YouGov last asked the question in May, the outcome was reversed. At that time, half of respondents (50 percent) felt that an exit was unlikely, and 39 percent thought it was likely.

The number of Germans in favour of a "Grexit" has also risen, but only slightly – 58% would now prefer it if Greece left the Eurozone, up on the percentages in April and May, but still short of March's peak, when 59% were in favour of a "Grexit".

There has also been little change in the German public's evaluation of the negotiations themselves. As in previous month's, Germans still tend to think the Eurogroup have the upper hand in the negotiations (43%), slightly less than in May (48%). Meanwhile, those that think Greece has the upper hand has increased from 14% to 18%. A further 28% believe neither party currently has the upper hand.

Although German chancellor Angela Merkel has said that a deal is still possible, it is unclear how. IMF boss Christine Lagarde has said that there will "no period of grace" after the current repayment is due on June 30th. It is also unclear if and how Greek will stay part of the European Union if it has to leave the Euro.

PA image

More information at YouGov.de
Why Tessa Jowell is Labour's best hope in LondonPeter firstname.lastname@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/17/why-tessa-jowell-labours-best-hope-london/
Tessa Jowell currently reaches parts of the London electorate that her Labour rivals struggle to win over – this could be Labour's best chance before 2020 to show it is still relevant in the 21st century

Labour's candidate for Mayor of London should be a shoo-in next year. London is now a Labour city, and, relative to the rest of Britain, getting more so. However, things aren't that simple: if they were, Boris Johnson would not have been elected Mayor twice, in 2008 and 2012.

Let's start with the underlying arithmetic. In terms of the Britain-wide popular vote, the Conservative victories over Labour in 1992 were comparable: a 7.6 point lead in 1992, compared with a 6.5 point lead last month.

However, London's story is different: an 8.2 point Conservative lead in 1992, compared with an 8.8 point Labour lead last month. In 23 years, the net swing across Great Britain was negligible – while in London it was as much as 8.5% to Labour.

Yet Labour has won the Mayoralty only once. Ken Livingstone won as an Independent in 2000, was re-elected as Labour candidate in 2004, then lost twice to Boris. In 2012, Boris's narrow victory contrasted with Labour's comfortable victory on the same day in elections to the Greater London Assembly. Boris had a cross-party appeal that Livingstone used to enjoy but which has faded in recent years.

What, then, are Labour's chances this time? In a special survey conducted last week for Prospect, YouGov has tested the appeal of its four best-known potential candidates. We asked people in each case whether they would make a good mayor or a bad mayor. (Brief technical note: our final election poll in London for the Evening Standard came close to the actual result, with support for each party within 2%, and an average error of 1%.)

The first point to make is that the four Labour hopefuls are still not that well known. For each contender, the largest number reply: "I don't know enough about them to say". Among Londoners as a whole, the figure range from 36% for Diane Abbott to 56% for both David Lammy and Sadiq Khan. The "don't know enough" figures among Labour voters are smaller, but still considerable.

That said, Tessa Jowell has comfortably the best score. 30% say should we make a good mayor, while 15% say she would make a bad mayor – a net score of plus 15. The net scores of the other three are: Lammy plus 5, Khan plus 4, Abbott minus 12.

In net terms, Labour voters have a positive view of all four, with figures ranging from plus 3 (Abbott) to +33 (Jowell). However, the really telling numbers are those for the supporters of other parties. Jowell scores plus 3 among Conservatives, compared with Lammy (minus 9), Khan (minus 15) and Abbott (minus 32). Jowell is also better like than her rivals among the smaller number of Lib Dem and Ukip voters.

This explains separate findings from the same, poll, published in the Evening Standard. We pitched Zac Goldsmith – by far and away the most popular person to be the Conservative candidate – separately against Jowell and Khan. Excluding don't knows, Jowell leads Goldsmith by 57-43%, while Khan and Goldsmith tie, 50-50%.

In both cases around two in five Londoners aren't sure who they would back; so there is plenty of room, and time, for things to change. For the moment, however, the lesson is clear. Jowell currently reaches parts of the London electorate that her Labour rivals struggle to win over. And given the way Londoners have voted in the past, this could be a key advantage. If Labour chooses another candidate, they will have a lot of cross-party ground to make up.

One final point is worth making. Although next May's mayoral election is about the future of London, it is also in some ways about the future of the Labour Party. In the past ten years, Labour has been defeated in two general elections, two Scottish elections, two European Parliament elections and two London mayoral elections. The chances of Labour returning to power next year in Scotland are zero, plus or minus 0%. A Labour mayor in London looks like the party's best chance between now and 2020 to show if, and how, it is able to change sufficiently to remain relevant in the 21st century.

See the full Prospect results

See the full Evening Standard results
EU referendum wording: 'Yes' or 'No', it makes no differenceWill email@example.com/people/will.dahlgreen/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/16/eu-referendum-wording-yes-or-no-it-makes-no-differ/
The effect of changing the EU membership option from 'Yes' to 'No' seems limited at this stage

The official question wording for the coming referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union has yet to be confirmed, but 'Yes' is expected to be the option for staying in the European Union and 'No' will be for leaving. The news has stirred Eurosceptics, for the reason that 'Yes' seems like the optimistic approach. Nigel Farage questioned why those who wanted Scottish independence could style themselves as the 'Yes' campaign, but those who want independence from Europe will get 'No' as their slogan.

YouGov has asked two versions of the referendum question to a split sample over three days, gathering over 2300 respondents for each question version. The first version asks if the UK should remain a member of the European Union, with 'Yes' as the pro-union answer, and the second asks if the UK should leave the European Union, with 'Yes' as the pro-independence response.

The result is virtually identical. In the first version, where pro-union campaigners would have the 'Yes' tag, staying in the European Union has a lead of 7. In the second version, where pro-independence groups would be the 'Yes' campaign, staying in the EU has a lead of 8. So the effect for the pro-union campaign of being awarded the 'Yes' answer is net -1, which is within the margin of error.

Of course, the research has been conducted prior to the campaign – it's possible the value of positivity could come into play as the debate gathers momentum.

Alex Salmond, who favours membership of the EU and pushed for Scottish independence as the 'Yes' campaign, says "the Yes side is important. If you want to embrace a positive vision of staying in the EU you want to be Yes". In the 1975 referendum, Yes was also the option for remaining in the European Community, and Harold Wilson used the slogan 'Say No to the No Men', characterising No voters as downbeat cynics.

See the full poll results
EU vote: Enoch Powell's warning from beyond the gravePeter email@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/15/eu-vote-enoch-powells-warning-beyond-grave/
An example from history of how the coming EU referendum may not settle the matter

Many years ago, one of my mentors at the Sunday Times warned me against "PSJ". It stands for public service journalism – the things we ought to know, rather than the things we want to read.

This week I have defied his strictures. This blog is pure PSJ. I have transcribed an exchange broadcast a few days ago on the BBC's Parliament Channel. It replayed the BBC's results programme from the 1975 referendum on Britain and Europe. As the figures came in, showing a two-to-one majority for staying in the Common Market (as it then was), Robin Day interviewed Enoch Powell.

(For younger readers, Day was the doyen of interviewers – think Jeremy Paxman without the sneers – while Powell was the leading anti-European of his day. A year earlier he had stood down as Conservative MP for Wolverhampton South West and urged people to vote Labour for, although Powell was well to the Right, he felt that Labour's commitment to a referendum on Europe trumped all other concerns.)

Anyway, Powell faced Day, knowing that his hopes of a vote to leave the Common Market had been comprehensively dispelled by the results. This is their full exchange:

Day: Mr Powell, there wasn't much point in advising people to vote Labour from the point of view of staying in or coming out of the Common Market, was there?

Powell: I'm always in favour of a question being reopened as important as this. It has been reopened and now we have a provisional result which takes us on to the next stage.

Day: Why do you say "a provisional result", and what is the next stage?

Powell: Oh, I'm just replying on the Government's official statement.

Day: Can I read it for you? "Our continued membership will depend on the continuing assent of Parliament"

Powell: Yes, that's the one. And since Parliament will be continuously re-elected by the electorate, then this is an ongoing debate.

Day: Yes, but with respect Mr Powell, you have picked out one sentence from a passage which deals with the constitutional position…

Powell: Yes, that's right.

Day: …and not with the practical position, because are you suggesting that from now on, you and others who feel like you should continue a parliamentary struggle to get Britain out?

Powell: But of course. This is like September 1938. In September, October 1938 I'm sure that, if Neville Chamberlain had gone to the country, he would have swept the country for an act of abnegation. But the very same people, within 12 months, when they saw behind the facade, when they penetrated to the realities, stood up to fight for the continued existence of our nation; and that's what will happen.

Day: You're saying that this is a kind of Munich?

Powell: Yes I am

Day: I see

Powell: You seem surprised!

Day: And when do you see our 1940 coming, when we stand alone?

Powell: Well, let's have our 1939 first, when we decide we have to fight. You see, I simply do not believe, although I make no complain of the pro-marketers, particularly people like Edward Heath and Peter Kirk – they have been beyond criticism in that they have made it clear that to remain part of the Common Market is to renounce national status for Britain – they say the nation state is obsolete and we are to recognise it.

Day: Who are you going to get to support you in your continuing parliamentary struggle to get Britain out of the Common Market, Mr Powell?

Powell: Well, as the House of Commons, week by week, has to debate the consequences of being in the Common Market, it will, as it tends to do, filter through to wider and wider areas, that they were rightly told by people like Edward Heath, that this did indeed mean that they would become a province in a new state. Now I do not believe that when that is realised, that it will be assented to.

Day: I remember you two or three years ago, when you were still in the Conservative Party, at the Conservative Party conference in Brighton, predicting, with total conviction and certainty, that this country would not go into the Common Market. May I suggest to you that your prediction now is no more right than that one was?

Powell: You have two events, if I may say so, slightly confused. One was the Conservative Party conference where I said I would never assent to the act of abnegation involved in Britain joining the Common Market; and a meeting in East Ham in September 1971 when I said it will not happen. I am still convinced it will not happen. I am convinced that the people of this country cannot be absorbed into a European state.

Day: But you said we would not go into the Common Market, and we did go into the Common Market, and are not just as wrong now as you were then?

Powell: No sir, the British people do not mean it because they have still not been able to credit the implications of being in the Common Market. They still think they will be a nation. They still think they will govern and tax and legislate for themselves. They are mistaken. It's not the fault of many of the pro-marketeers that they are mistaken, but it is the thing, so incredible to them, that I am not inclined to blame them overmuch. But they will learn.

Two preliminary observations, before we come to the main point. First, that's interviewing at its best: short, clear, direct and well-informed questions, courteously expressed. Second, Powell's words explode the myth that the "yes" campaign in 1975 misled voters by pretending that the Common Market was little more than a trading arrangement. Powell explicitly conceded that Heath and others promoted the Common Market as a profoundly political project.

Now to the heart of the matter: Powell's warning that the referendum result would have a short shelf-life. He was half right, for although we have remained "in Europe" ever since, the Labour Party reopened the matter within six years, and ended up fighting the 1983 election on a manifesto commitment to withdraw from the Common Market.

Powell, of course, was a one-off character, long since dead. Should his words be regarded as that of a twentieth century eccentric, of no relevance to our coming in-out referendum on EU membership? I would counsel caution. A few months ago, at a Prospect round table, I sat opposite William Cash, one of the most prominent of today's Tory "no" campaigners. I asked him if he would give up campaigning for Brexit if the referendum produced a "yes" majority. His reply was clear: "of course not".

So, to those who feel certain that a "yes" vote in the coming referendum will settle the matter for a generation: don't be so sure. By nationalist hook or imperial crook, the "no" camp will do all it can to keep the issue alive. You have been warned.

This article was previously published in Prospect
Most Germans ready to bargain to keep Britain 'in'William firstname.lastname@example.com/people/william.jordan/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/11/Most-Germans-ready-bargain-keep-Britain/
Most Germans want Britain to remain a member of the European Union, though one in five would rather it didn't

David Cameron recently returned from a tour of four European capitals to jumpstart his push for EU reforms. The prime minister has a sceptical public at home and already faces resistance abroad, but one bright spot was German Chancellor Angela Merkel's apparent openness to negotiations.

A new survey by YouGov Germany suggests the German public are also open to hearing Cameron out, especially if it makes it more likely Britain stays in the European Union.

54% say they would rather bargain with the UK government if it means Britain will remain a part of the 28-member union. Only 27% oppose negotiations, even if it makes 'Brexit' more likely.

A referendum on Britain's EU membership is scheduled for 2017.

Germans also say by three-to-one (58% to 18%) that they would prefer Britain to remain a member of the EU. Majorities of all the Germany's mainstream parties back UK membership, though the margin is smaller (51% to 29%) among supporters of the Left Party, which has criticised what it sees as militaristic and neoliberal policies of the EU. In May another YouGov Germany poll found Germans do favour a Greek exit from the Eurozone ('Grexit'), by 53% to 30%.

The survey also finds that 55% of Germans think exiting the EU would be bad for Britain. A similar number (57%) think it would also be bad for the EU if Britain left. However, 19% of Germans think a 'Brexit' would be good for the EU.

YouGov's latest poll on the EU referendum found that the pro-EU 'Yes' camp has a 10-point lead, but those who want to leave are more determined to vote.

PA image

More information at YouGov.de
EU referendum: 'Yes' is ahead, but 'No' is underpricedStephan firstname.lastname@example.com/people/stephan.shakespeare/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/09/eu-referendum-are-bookies-odds-yes-vote-over-price/
In our new poll 'Yes' leads 'No' by 10, but look beyond the headline figures and 'No' voters are more likely to vote – and harder to reach

As the EU referendum campaigns start to form, the 'stay in', or 'Yes' camp, enjoys a 10-point lead (it's 55-45 after removing the Don't knows and Wouldn't votes; please see the footnote about the question wording). While I would certainly bet on 'Yes' if a man in a pub offered me something near evens, as it's clearly the more likely outcome, the bookies' odds of 3/10 make it seem overpriced. Of course the biggest driver will be risk aversion – and leaving the EU must be deemed a massive risk however attractive it may be to lovers of derring-do freedom.

YouGov's latest poll suggests a 'No' vote is not entirely outlandish. First, the most passionate voters are the outers, and second, the voters most 'in play' are the ones the yes campaign will be least capable of reaching: those who are not interested in politics.

We asked three questions in addition to the referendum question: likelihood to vote, the respondent's level of interest in politics, and degree of certainty about the current in/out choice. The chart presents a neat summary.

I believe this defines a significant challenge to the 'Yes' campaign, as it is likely be led by pro-establishment progressives who are ill-suited to reaching switched-off but in-play voters. We saw that in the 2011 AV referendum: the Yes camp could engage fellow-politicos in complex arguments, but not ordinary voters, and while they started the campaign with positive prospects, they ended up suffering a crushing defeat. If the 'Yes' camp attempts to 'correct' the voters on the 'facts' while trying to win them over to a European vision, it could seem patronising and risks losing support. This may be another election in which playing to people's fear of change will be the surest path to victory.

*A third of the way through the fieldwork, we learned of the slightly adjusted proposal for the referendum wording, so for a third of the sample it was "Do you think that the United Kingdom should be a member of the European Union?" and for the other two thirds it was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?". The effect of the difference was minimal, under 1%, so we have not separated them for the report of these results. Including the DKs and WNVs, the results were 'Yes' 42%, 'No' 35%, 'Would not vote' 3%, and 'Don't know' 19%.

See the full results
General election 2015: how Britain really votedPeter email@example.com/people/peter.kellner/https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
The results of Britain's biggest ever post-election survey reveal the nation's changing political character

Apart from the obvious—joy for the Tories and SNP, gloom for Labour and the Lib Dems, frustration for Ukip—what really happened on 7th May? YouGov has done Britain's biggest ever post-election survey. We have questioned 100,000 people, weighting the data to match both the British electorate and the results of the 2015 general election.

The graphics show our main findings. Readers can draw their own conclusions. Here are mine:

Culture, not class

The biggest divides these days are cultural rather than those of class. This is clear not just from the rise of Ukip and the SNP, but from the 40 separate groups we have analysed. The four most Conservative groups are Telegraph, Mail, Express and Times readers; the three least conservative groups are Guardian, Mirror and Independent readers. Newspaper readership provides a far better predictor of Labour and Tory support than any other indicator.

Women for Labour

Nowadays, women are more likely than men to vote Labour. It used to be the other way round. For most of the post-1945 era, women tended to be more Tory than men. Detailed analysis from our post-election survey shows that something else is going on. Labour's advantage is specifically among women under 50. Labour enjoyed a six-point lead among them—while the Tories led by five points among men under 50. Among people over 50, the Tories have a clear lead among both men (by 12 points) and women (by 15 points). In essence, among people born before the mid-1960s, the traditional gender gap persists, while among women born since then, the new gender gap takes over.

Public and private

There is a growing divergence between private and public sector workers. The Tories led Labour by 17 points among people working in the private sector, while Labour lead by three points among public sector workers. That 20-point gulf between the two groups has widened from a 16-point gulf in 2010 (16-point Tory lead among private sector workers, level-pegging among public sector workers). If this gulf persists, it's good long-term news for the Conservatives, as private sector employment expands while the public sector contracts.

Income inequality

The rise in economic inequality is matched by voting trends. Among voters in households earning less than £20,000 a year, Labour's lead widened from 3% in 2010 to 7% this year. While the Tories increased their leads by five points among the two highest-income groups: from 8% to 13% among those earning £40-69,000 a year, and from 23% to 28% among those earning more than £70,000 a year.

Graduates for change

As in the United States, university graduates are the most likely to vote for progressive parties. If we combine the votes for Labour, the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru into a "left" total and Conservatives and Ukip into a "right" total, then graduates voted left 57%, right 41%. Among people with no qualifications, or GCSE at most, the division was: left 40%, right 58%. The in-betweeners educationally (with A-levels or equivalent as their highest qualification) were also in-betweeners politically: left 51%, right 48%.

Across the Green divide

The Greens and Ukip appealed to opposite groups. Ukip's strongest support came from readers of the Express (27%) and Star (26%) and from people with no qualification beyond GCSE (20%). Green support for these groups was 1-2%. The Greens' strongest groups were Guardian readers (14%), Independent readers (11%) and full-time students (9%). Ukip support among these groups was 1%, 4% and 6% respectively.

A version of this article was previously published in Prospect

See the full data tables


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Some Things Just Aren't Possible - Even for the Hulk!
This issue introduces one of the more interesting, long-running Hulk nemeses - The Leader. The Leader sends an interesting take on an android - a spongy automaton to steal one of Dr. Banner's nuclear inventions that's traveling by train from Gamma Base to a testing site. Unfortunately, the ensuing battle between the Hulk and the automaton includes so many odd occurrences that defy physics, that it seriously stretches suspension of disbelief - for example, in one case Hulk is pushed off the back of last train car, but using only his muscles, manages to twist in mid air and (pushing off nothing) leap up higher over a bridge to land forward of where he fell, back onto the top of the still moving train car from which he just fell!
You will either find this comic a great piece of nostalgia, or an insult to your intelligence.

subset: commoncrawl


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39 year old man | Atherton, CA, USA | Seeking women 18-35 within 50 miles
not a member yet, so can't read your emails.... i can only wink.. sorry... READ MY PROFILE BEFORE DOING ANYTHING PLEASE..
Well... .. I APPRECIATE YOUR EMAILS, BUT I CAN'T READ THEM YET... And I'm mostly looking for otherpeople who like to go out and have a good time... I'm not sure why it says I definetly want kids, but I don't know how to change that box, so don't read too much into that one.. lol... Intelligence and career stuff is also a plus, since I went to Stanford and like to hang out with well educated people when I get the chance.....Mostly, I'm just looking for someone who can also have a good friendship or relationship...someone kind? I also like to be pretty athletic and active, and also like to generally hang out, go out to eat, and drink coffee and things like that -So someone who enjoys that sort of lifestyle helps..
Alumni connections , Camping , Coffee and conversation , Business networking , Movies/Videos , Travel/Sightseeing
Aerobics, Auto racing / Motorcross, Billiards / Pool, Cycling, Hockey, Other types of exercise, Running, Skiing, Swimming, Tennis / Racquet sports, Walking / Hiking, Weights / Machines, Yoga
I exercise 5 or more times per week.
Don't display my sign
I have Dogs, Fish
I like Birds, Cats, Exotic Pets, Gerbils / Guinea Pigs / Etc., Horses, Other, Reptiles
i like to go outside and excercise.. cycling, running, swimming, hiking, etc.. bonus if you like to do these things or are athletic, and care about your health...
Z{{Cta}} {{#if HasMoreInfo}} ?{{CtaSecondary}} {{/if}}
|What he is looking for
|5'8" (172cms)
|3'0" (91cms) to 5'8" (172cms)
|Body type:
|Athletic and toned
|Slender, Athletic and toned
|Blue, Green, Hazel
|Light brown
|No preference
|No Way
|No preference
|Social Drinker
|No preference
|Self-Employed / Entrepreneur
|No preference
|$100,001 to $150,000
|No preference
|Never Married
|No preference
|Have kids:
|No preference
|Wants kids:
|Not sure
|No preference
|White / Caucasian
|No preference
|I'll tell you later
|No preference
|I'll tell you later
|No preference
|Graduate degree
|Some college, Bachelors degree


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Harry Earl Archer
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Mar. 20, 1897
Rawlins County
Kansas, USA
Jun. 24, 1991
Rawlins County
Kansas, USA
Harry Earl Archer was born March 20, 1897 at Blakeman, Kan., to Otis and Ella Nora Kendall Archer. He died at the Rawlins County Hospital in Atwood June 24, 1991 at the age of 94.
He moved with his parents to McDonald in 1900. He finished 11 grades in school, which is all they had at that time. He was one of the first employees of McDonald Equity, working from 1915 to 1918, at which time he entered service in World War I. Harry was one of two Cheyenne veterans of WWI to register for the draft in WWII.
He met and married Esther M. West June 6, 1923. To this union two sons were born, Arlie G. and Harry Ross.
Harry was a steward of the land and in later years enjoyed gardening. He was a very kind and generous father and grandfather, many times helping those who needed help.
Though his health started failing four years ago, he was able to attend Joyce and Billy's wedding in Wichita on May 11, 1985 and on June 30, 1990 he witnessed his grandson, Alan's marriage to Cindy.
Harry was a member of McDonald Lodge No. 383 and St. Francis Lodge No. 404, 68 years. He was a member of Progressive Chapter No. 396 and Doric Chapter No. 404 of St. Francis. He was a Past Master of McDonald Lodge No. 383 and Past Patron of Progressive Chapter No. 396, both of McDonald.
Harry helped form the first Legion post in McDonald and had been a continuous member until the time of his death.
He was preceded in death by his wife Sept. 9, 1972; his parents; and a baby brother.
He leaves to mourn his passing his sons, Ross of the home and Arlie and wife, Delores of McDonald; grandchildren, June Archer of Lawrence, Joyce McDaniel and husband, Billy, of Kechi, Kan., and Alan Archer and wife, Cindy of McDonald, great-granchild Megan Cram of Lawrence and three step-grandchildren, Natasha, Shannon and Mathew Wilson. Many friends and other relatives will remember Harry.
Harry loved his home and family and these lines seemed fitting.
"From the earliest Olympics to the contests of today,
We've invented games amany, for we love clean sport, and play.
But I give as my opinion, and I think that I am right,
That no game by men invented beats...just going home at night.
Going home at night, when the streets are all alight
And the children there to greet me,
With their eyes so big and bright,
It matters not if drudgery fill the house of all the day.
Just to be at home at evening...doth the toll of life repay.
Going home at night...makes me tingle with delight,
And I breathe an upward "Thank You" to my Father out of sight.
And I know just how he wants me,
Here to love and serve him right
Then...when Life's Long Day is over...
I'll be going home at night.
Then someone added this vital postscript:
"In life, as in baseball, it is reaching Home safely that counts."
Card of Thanks
The family of Harry E. Archer wishes to express their deep appreciation for the many words of concern and sympathy during Dad's last illness and passing. For all the cardes, visits at the hospital and our home, telephone calls, food and memorials, we will always be grateful. We especially thank the Ladies Guild for the wonderful dinner served at noon to our families and friends. The loss of our beloved father, grandfather and great-grandfather has created a void in our lives that will never be filled, but his memory will always be with us.
Arlie, Delores and Ross Archer
Alan and Cindy Archer and family
June Archer and Megan
Joyce and Billy McDaniel
The Citizen Patriot
Atwood, Kansas
Published July 11, 1991, Page 6
Family links:
Otis Archer (1871 - 1950)
Ella Nora
Archer (1867 - 1941)
Esther Mae
Archer (1892 - 1972)
Arlie Gene Archer (1927 - 2011)
Harry Ross Archer (1933 - 2007)
Infant Son Archer (____ - 1902)
Harry Earl Archer (1897 - 1991)
Calculated relationship
Pvt US Army
World War I
Grace Cemetery
Rawlins County
Kansas, USA
Plot: 32, Lot 7
Created by:
Marilyn Birkby
Record added: Oct 04, 2011
Find A Grave Memorial# 77615821
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Why don't criminals do crime on daylight?
If Batman goes out only at night...
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it's easier to commit crimes at night, even with the threat of Batman... as well as that, some people actually have to do things during the daytime, whether it's a job, or school, or something else, so they don't have the time to be out committing crimes.
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He'd come out during the day if the situation REALLY called for it.
I doubt people like Bane, Clayface, and Killer Croc have day jobs. I was kind of wondering this a long time ago. I'd say the cops only have like a 20% chance of stopping a villain where as Batman has like a 75%-95% chance depending on who it is........I'd rather take my chances doing a mid day robbery then a midnight one lol
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Obviously, it's always nighttime in Gotham.
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@jrock85 said:
Its much easier to for criminals to operate at night.
Killer Croc can easily rob a bank or whatever in the middle of the day, no problem.
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That's why Batman has sidekicks.
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@Hunter114 said:
it's easier to commit crimes at night, even with the threat of Batman... as well as that, some people actually have to do things during the daytime, whether it's a job, or school, or something else, so they don't have the time to be out committing crimes.
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@jrock85 said:
Its much easier to for criminals to operate at night.
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Batman has evolved from being a masked crime-fighter who hides in the shadows at night to a Justice league member who works along super-humans and fights them.Batman has kind of grown out of the whole "Only come out at night" strategy.
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But Batman do come out during the day...Gordon phoned him.
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That's why they are criminals. They are pretty dumb.
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@MasterDetective: They covered this Detective Comics #638 when a criminal called Actuary allies himself with the Penguin to test this theory and well I'll let you read it to find out how that went
lol....are you thinking about Batmans booty?...sweet..
Batman does not go out only at night. If he did, War Games would have been the end of Gotham.
In my opinion, there are still some petty criminals that believe Batman is a myth and that the Bat-Signal is just to scare them off, so they commit crimes at night.
And most of Batman's notorious enemies work by night for specific reasons: Joker, the Riddler, Hush and sometimes Bane actually WANT Batman to face them, Scarecrow and Zsasz probably believe that people are more easily terrified when it's dark, Penguin, Black Mask, Two-Face and any other mob boss can't really make affairs in daylight without someone noticing, Deadshot is a hitman, and hitmen usually kill their targets at night, Clayface I don't even know what he wants, Ra's and his league are assassins...
Maybe only Poison Ivy, Mr. Freeze and Killer Croc would appear in daylight.
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Do not forget that in the last few parts of Batman & Robin against Terminator (damn not sure of his name) it's day when Grayson, Todd and Drake come for back up.
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Obviously, it's always nighttime in Gotham.
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@Russcovito said:
Do not forget that in the last few parts of Batman & Robin against Terminus it's day when Grayson, Todd and Drake come for back up.
Actually Bats went out in daytime in: LoTDK: Idols, part 1 :) to catch some criminals
Because ALL the criminals of Gotham know that Batman only comes out at night. So they perform small time operations during the day. Minor robberies, nothing of real importance. Why not just perform big jobs during the day? Because daylight is their only refuge from Batman. They don't want to screw it up with a big time plan and risk forcing Batman into a full scale, day/night assault on Gotham's underworld. At least this way, they're still making some minor profits.
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Because there has to be some justification for Gatham PD's existence aside from the very few actually useful cops and their ability to turn on a bat signal
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Thanks to the support of our community (online and locally), we've got our new space ready for classes! We spent 3 solid weeks taking down walls, putting in flooring, and building our new climbing wall and tower viewing area. Our community of awesome volunteers put in hundreds of hours getting things ready. We opened the new space in late July, and have been teaching regular classes since!
We've still got lots of finish work to do, and now that we have so much space, we're going to have to fill it with more obstacles!
Thanks so much for your support, and thanks in advance for your continued generosity!
Big news! We've successfully inherited the warehouse space next door to our Seattle location and are currently expanding the gym to a full 10,000sq ft! The plan is to build like mad in order to bring the walls down for the big reveal before the National Parkour Summit we're hosting on July 20th-22nd.
Due to popular demand and your awesome support, a new rock climbing wall designed by Vertical World will be the first thing up in the new space. The next big addition will be what we're calling The Tower which is a two story structure sitting right in the middle of everything with a parents viewing pavilion up top, and rooms for stretching, massage/PT services, and an office below. We'll of course be covering The Tower with interesting climbing challenges, weird stairs, and holes to jump through all around it - we might even be able to sneak a fireman's pole in for quick exiting :)
The rock wall and a portion of the flooring is already paid for by your support and we'll be conducting some more fundraising over the next month as we try and build out the rest. We're extremely excited to expand into this new space and fill it with more awesome things for kids and adults to play on, thank you so much for your continued support in making that happen :)
Oh and if you get this in time, today is a GlobalGiving Bonus Day - tell your friends, all donations matched at 40% !
All the best,
Tyson Cecka
Thanks to your generosity, we're steadily improving the gym and preparing to expand again. We've added some interim climbey stuff while planning out a bigger climbing wall, keep scrambling our scaffolding, and are looking forward to building out more space this summer.
We've got 2 weekly outreach classes with Seattle-based programs reaching at-risk youth and are teaching parkour at more expos and school event days than ever before! We're also sponsoring more scholarship students than we have at any other time in the past.
In short, we're doing great, and we're incredibly grateful for your support. Expect some big changes late this summer... the next update should be amazing!


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Migration Policy Institute - Immigration Policy & Law
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A discussion of the findings of a new MPI report examining refugee characteristics at arrival for the ten largest national-origin groups resettled between 2002-2013, as well as their integration outcomes with respect to employment and incomes, English proficiency and education levels, and public benefit use.
As legal challenges continue to impede President Obama's deferred action programs to protect millions of unauthorized immigrants from deportation, it is becoming increasingly clear that the window of opportunity for implementation before the 2016 election is growing ever narrower. Even as advocates continue mobilizing immigrants to apply, attention is shifting to other new policies announced by the president last November.
Even as Nepal will lean more heavily on its international diaspora to help recover from devastating earthquakes that killed thousands and decimated parts of the country, the disasters have had effects on internal migration. Class and gender dynamics have long driven significant internal flows. This feature article explores migration trends in Nepal, including movement between ecological zones, growing urbanization, and the feminization of an increasingly mobile workforce.
Using previously non-public refugee admissions data from the State Department, this analysis finds that even as refugees come to the United States from increasingly diverse origins and linguistic backgrounds, some arriving with very low native-language literacy and education, most integrate successfully over time. The report examines refugees' employment, English proficiency, educational attainment, income and poverty status, and public benefits usage.
Despite the broad appeal of the concept of "mainstreaming" in integration policy in Europe, few agree on its exact meaning. This report synthesizes the findings of the UPSTREAM project's country case studies, which examined the extent to which governments in France, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom are employing mainstreaming to meet the needs of rapidly diversifying populations.
A discussion of the findings of a new MPI report examining refugee characteristics at arrival for the ten largest national-origin groups resettled between 2002-2013, as well as their integration outcomes with respect to employment and incomes, English proficiency and education levels, and public benefit use.
With rising inflows of humanitarian and economic migrants, Norway faces a series of integration challenges. In conversation with the Migration Information Source, Solveig Horne, Norway's Minister of Children, Equality, and Social Inclusion discusses her work on integration policy, from the importance of language training and a feeling of belonging, to the protection of immigrant women and resettlement of asylum seekers.
MPI's Transatlantic Council on Migration convened its thirteenth plenary meeting to propose innovative solutions to address the increasing strains on the global protection system amid huge displacement. This Council Statement highlights the need for national governments and international actors to respond proactively to rising displacement and to look beyond the care-and-maintenance model of protection and help the long-term displaced find their economic and social footing.
With a history of encouraging workers to emigrate to relieve unemployment at home, Tunisia now has 11 percent of its population living abroad. The factors underlying the 2011 revolution that sparked the Arab Spring have also fueled emigration desires for many Tunisians. This country profile explores historical and current trends in Tunisia from colonial settlement to the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and the new focus on migrant rights at home and abroad.
Mexico has lost its long-held status as the top source country of new immigrants to the United States, dropping to third place behind China and India. This historic shift is remarkable for the rapid decline in Mexican inflows combined with a steady rise in Asian immigration, largely through high-skilled visa programs. This Policy Beat explores the reasons behind these trends and their potential impact on U.S. demographics.
There has been growing international recognition that continued movement and migration often play an important role in shaping refugees' lives after their initial flight. This report considers the extent to which labor migration is being used—or could be used in the future—to strengthen the international refugee protection regime and facilitate durable solutions for more refugees, many of whom have been displaced for many years.
Indian immigrants represent the second-largest origin group in the United States, accounting for 4.7 percent of the total foreign-born population. Generally high-skilled and highly educated, more than half of Indian immigrants have arrived since 2000 and largely attain green cards through employment-based pathways. Indians account for 70 percent of H-1B petitions and are the second-largest group of international students in the United States.
Today's refugee protection regime, established in the aftermath of World War II, is ill-equipped to meet the protection needs of contemporary displacement situations. This report explores the main sources of strain on the existing system of protection, and examines the two most promising avenues for strengthening the system: development- and mobility-focused approaches.
A discussion on the situation of Syrian refugees, recent developments in the region, and the U.S. humanitarian response, along with reports from recent fact-finding missions to the region by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and Refugee Council USA. Speakers from both organizations, as well as a leading official in the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, discuss conditions for refugees in camps and urban settings, as well as U.S. policy regarding the Syrian crisis.
Testimony of Doris Meissner, Director of MPI's U.S. Immigration Policy Program, before the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on Immigration and the National Interest regarding the Central American Minors Refugee/Parole Program that began in December 2014.
The H-2B visa allows U.S. employers to bring in foreign workers to temporarily fill low-skill nonagricultural jobs across a wide range of states and industries. A series of recent legal challenges has exposed the presence of fraud and abuse, while stripping the program of its regulations and raising uncertainty about its future. This Policy Beat examines the implications in the debate surrounding temporary worker programs.
More than 1.7 million Syrian refugees lived in Turkey as of mid-March 2015, making this the world's largest community of Syrians displaced by the conflict in their country. This report provides an overview of Turkey's changing migration landscape and the position of Syrian refugees in Turkey today, along with policy recommendations given the likelihood of long-term or permanent displacement for Syrians.
A discussion with the Director of The White House Domestic Policy Council on the content of the new National Integration Plan delivered to the President by the recently created White House Task Force on New Americans, along with the plan for implementation.
A webinar marking the launch of MPI's report on immigrant and refugee workers in the early childhood field.
A discussion with the Director of The White House Domestic Policy Council on the content of the new National Integration Plan delivered to the President by the recently created White House Task Force on New Americans, along with the plan for implementation.


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Monster High Ghoul & Glamour Fashion Designer Set
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Dress four Monster High paper dolls in fabulous styles with this fashion designer actvity set.
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- 12.5"H x 9"W x 2"D
- Ages 3 years & up
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2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Vacation Rental in Solana Beach - (SUR57)
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Bedrooms: 2/
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This deluxe oceanfront condo is sure to delight all its visitors. In addition to being close to everything San Diego has to offer, this home boasts a private balcony overlooking the Pacific Ocean, a remodeled kitchen with granite countertops, new appliances, fireplace and tasteful furniture throughout. There is wireless internet, an office in the master bedroom and televisions in both bedrooms. It is located in the city of Solana Beach close to the Cedros Design District, shopping and great local restaurants. The perfect home for any vacation. This property is a 7 night min.
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