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Oral History Transcript — Dr. James Hansen
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Interview with Dr. James Hansen
Session I | Session II
Weart:Its November 27th. Second session with Jim Hansen here at the NASA Center in New York on November 27th, 2000, the millennium. Okay Jim, this time I want to talk more about public relations. This of course is indistinguishable from the scientific department. Just a general question to start out, was there any particular time when you became aware that what you were doing was not only to long-term scientific stuff, but had short-term public interest?
Hansen:Well sure, that goes back a long time.
Weart:Yes. How did that evolve?
Hansen:Well, I was aware of that question of scientists communicating with the public from the beginning because of a friend of mine, Jim Pollack, who was a colleague of Carl Sagan. I mentioned this in a talk I gave, I guess it was called a Symposium for Carl Sagan a few years at Cornell, about public understanding of global climate change. I mentioned that Jim Pollack and I were sailing on a small lake in New Hampshire, actually becalmed on a Sun Fish. But that day, Carl Sagan came to the Gordon Conference and he was a little depressed because hed just learned at that time that he didnt get tenure at Harvard.
Weart:Oh, that was way back.
Hansen:Yes. This was when I was a first year post-doc, 1967, maybe 68. Our presumption was that his failure to get tenure was partly because of his propensity to communicate with the public. And in fact, Jim said, Well someone pasted on the bulletin board, newspaper articles quoting Carl Sagan as saying the speed of light is three times you know. His colleagues didnt like his time spent on that. I guess the attitude toward that may be changing somewhat; I think theres less negative response to that sort of thing now.
Weart:So in a sense you became aware that it was an issue.
Hansen:Yes. But see, Im the opposite kind of a person from Carl Sagan. I have zero interest or abilities for communicating. My interest is in the sciences and trying to understand how everything works. I always give as an example Benjamin Franklin. He made suggestions for possible climate impacts of volcanoes. We actually now have a lot more potential for trying to understand those things because we can make these models and because we have global observations and things. That is what I really like to do. But nevertheless, obviously you want to try to communicate a significant issue to the public. I remember shortly after that someone recommended to the editor of Science that I write an article on the clouds of Venus, because I had written some papers about the physical properties of the clouds of Venus. And you know, I couldnt do it. I wrote the title, The Veil of Venus. I thought thats a great title, and I wanted to write an article that could be understood. By a broader audience, at least other scientists. Thats very hard to do. Of course I was busy doing other papers. I never did finish that paper. Then after I got off of Venus and into this climate problem, then I started working on a paper intended for Science on CO2 and climate change, which was eventually published in Science in 1981.1 That was the paper that was reported on the front page of the New York Times by Walter Sullivan.2
Weart:Right. I want to go over that in some detail. How come you started working on that? So you saw it as a paper for Science and you intended it to reach a broad audience?
Hansen:Yes. The topic in the 1970s was becoming of greater interest. I had written one or two papers in Science. One, in which the calculations were done by other people here. Wei-Chung Wang was the first author, a 1976 paper on trace gases.3 But basically, I wrote the paper. And then there was one on Mt. Agung, which was a test of the planetary response to a global climate forcing. The model solution. It was also sent to Science.4 If you wanted your work to get wide distribution in the community, its a good place to publish in these general journals.
Weart:From these other papers, have you had reporters calling you up or had any interaction?
Hansen:Well not very much if there was any.
Weart:Do you remember when you first met Walter Sullivan?
Hansen:Well, yes. Across the street at the Moon Palace.
Weart:A Chinese restaurant?
Hansen:Yes, that was Dr. Jastrows (director of GISS) favorite place for lunch. He was particularly interested in communicating with the public and interacting with the media, and in a sense was kind of a rival of Carl Sagan. Eclipsed by Carl Sagan. He must have invited Walter Sullivan for lunch to talk to about something. I believe that I went to lunch with them because of our Venus thing. We had this experiment, which I proposed for a Venus space mission, which was accepted. So therefore I went with them to the luncheon and we talked about that a little bit, but then once the paper was finally accepted—
Weart:The 1981 paper, which you wrote with a second author, I guess Lacis.
Hansen:Andy Lacis, yes and other co-authors. But a few days before it came out I sent a copy to Walter [Sullivan], and that was sort of my original sin. [laughs]
Weart:That was the first time youd done something like that.
Hansen:Yes. Now its normal for organizations to send out press releases or something, but this was just something on my own.
Weart:You knew it was a matter of public interest.
Hansen:Yes. And that paper, I had submitted that to publication. I had been working on it for a couple of years I sent it twice to Science and once to Nature and all these time, it got sent back.
Weart:Why was that?
Hansen:It was too long. They said, Well the topic is of interest, but It was like three or four times what they said their limit was. Now I know that theyre—
Weart:They didnt object to the technical content.
Hansen:Right. Maybe the first time or two Im not sure it got to the referees, but they kept it for some time. The editor was interested in the topic, although hes always somewhat of a disbeliever Phil Abelson. He was always, I dont know, skeptical.
Weart:But I think the people who argue against global warming would say that Science and Nature gives propaganda for [their opponents]. Maybe thats more recently.
Hansen:I would actually agree with them. And my trouble with Nature now is that its got an editorial position, thats for sure. Abelson, you know, writes about energy all the time. I sense some skepticism on his part, but I think its healthy skepticism. But he certainly didnt try to stop publication of that sort of paper. He just objected to the great length of the paper. I sent it to Science twice and I sent it to Nature and it got rejected. And again they said, Yes we like this paper, but youve got to cut it in half. Each time I rewrote it I would cut it about 10% or 15% or something and then send it back. And I still had to cut out figures that I really liked.
Weart:Do you have a copy of the original paper, the longer one?
Hansen:Yes, I think I probably do. For example, it had a bar graph with the amount of CO2 that you could get out of oil and out of gas resources and out of coal. Of course coal is 10 times bigger. Some people still dont realize, you cant double CO2 with just oil and gas. Its not even available.
Weart:I see. So your original paper took a considerably broader view of all that.
Hansen:Well, I it was still mainly the things that were in the published paper; just additional graphs and some things had more details about how each forcing contributed, how well the model fitted the observed temperature data and things. In fact the numbers for coal and oil and gas were still included in a little table instead of a bar graph.
Weart:You sent it to Sullivan and then what happened?
Hansen:Then it got this publicity, as it was reported on the front page of the New York Times and discussed in the Washington Post and New York Times editorials, which did us no good with the Department of Energy, obviously.
Weart:Did you hear directly from them about that?
Hansen:Well it was more than that. They had a workshop in which principle point seemed to be to dispute the severity of the issue or the degree to which we could actually tell. In that paper, it did try to say things in an interesting way. For example, the potential opening of the Northwest Passage to try to make it get attention. So then the chief scientist for the DOE program actually wrote a criticism that was published as a letter to the editor in Science. This is the perfect example when you talk of the response of the scientific community and the political side of it, if you look at the article by Walter Sullivan. [Ask] a colleague of mine, wouldnt call him bosom buddy, but he was a student when I was a post-doc thats Steve Schneider. Were pretty friendly, and Id say now in our old age were quite friendly. He sort of criticized the paper when Walter Sullivan called him for comments. But Walter Sullivan said, But these caveats were actually in our paper. I thought we had the caveats okay. But the person who really got most upset was the person who got me my job, and thats Ichtiaque Rasool. He submitted something to Science, which was really a fairly personal attack in a sense, and it kept getting rejected. Eventually it was published, actually it was published by Steve Schneider in Climate Change. I then responded to that and claimed that, you know, as scientists we did our best to present an unbiased projection.5 What he accuses us of is trying to get funded, trying to use this to get an increase in our funding.
Weart:Well thats been a story for a long time, but climate scientists make a fuss so they can get more money for their research. But in terms of an official response, this is just now the DOE thing.
Hansen:Oh, its in the DOE thing.
Weart:The DOE had been reorganized already by this point.
Weart:By the way, were you involved in any of the politicking issues of the late 70s about the DOE budgets standing? Were you involved in any of that?
Hansen:I wasnt, but then when NASA said they werent going to continue to fund our CO2 climate research, then David Slade said that they would pick up, the funding for that. And that was what paid for
Weart:Thats what paid for this paper?
Hansen:No, I never got DOE funding. In about 1977 or so I got a three year grant from NASA, and that was what supported this. Then NASA indicated that they werent going to renew that and David Slade said that the DOE would pick it up. But then he was replaced by Fred Koomanoff. Then we went down and gave a presentation to Fred Koomanoff. But even prior to that presentation they had had this workshop near Washington with Mike McCracken, who is the guy who wrote this letter to Science criticizing our paper. And again hes a guy that I know fairly well. Hes now the head of the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program, something like that. Although he had to understand its really reasonable science, but still, hes not willing to recommend it to DOE for funding.
Weart:Do you have any of the correspondence from those days? Because I want to ask you about if you saved any of these letters.
Hansen:I may have a few things. Actually for a different reason last night I started to look through some of my notebooks at home. I do have some clippings, the press things, which I didnt do too good a job of saving between 81 and 88. [Looks through papers in office].
Weart:Its good you saved something its impossible [for historians] to find out otherwise.
Hansen:[Looking at files] Yes, so this was starting with Walter Sullivans thing. Editorials in The Times and in the Washington Post. But as for letters. Im still in the middle. Im still a government employee. The one thing which had bothered me in 1980s or so is an issue of whether my being blunt about things impacts the other people at the Institute. Basically I felt, while in some ways it made it harder for me to get funding, but sometimes then there was I dont know if it was guilt or something on their part maybe some other people at the Institute I felt actually had a better chance of getting funding for individual grants, as a preferable alternative to me. But still, as far as our getting institutional support in computers or something, it certainly doesnt help. Unfortunately I think I do not serve as a good example which would encourage people to be too outspoken because it seems that I dont make anybody happy. From my prejudiced opinion, I believe that I try to be objective in what I claim. Now it may be that Im just not very effective at explaining and at communicating with program managers.
Weart:But on the other hand, you havent been identified as on this side or that side.
Hansen:Right, but if you want funding you almost have to be. Thats one possible interpretation. I really dont want to get into details, but either political party feels that government scientists are working for them. If theyre in power they want you to be supportive of their perspective. That type of thing. And therefore it seems I never make anybody happy. You would think in the ideal world that if you just say, Okay, Im just going to try to do very objective work and understand these sciences as well as I can, you would think you should be able to get support for that. But its not necessarily so.
Weart:Especially as a government scientist.
Hansen:Yes. Its probably not appropriate to blame any of the people in power, but theres a lot of people in between the scientist and the people in the highest levels of power. And those people in between are trying to do what they think will please the highest levels. And theyre the ones who you actually get the funding from.
Weart:This brings us to the next thing I want to ask you about, which is you were requested to testify before Congress. How did that come about?
Hansen:Thats a good example, because that came about simply because of the fact that wed been in the newspaper, not only once but sort of three times. When I testified the first time in early 1982, I had three different graphs, one for each paper. One I think was the Science CO2 paper. One was a sea level calculation we attempted Sergej Lebedeff and Vivian Gornitz and I were trying to do with sea level calculations, sort of what we did with temperature.6 Instead of having temperatures at meteorological stations we had sea level observations at different tide gauge stations. We said, well, lets use the same averaging method that we used for averaging together these meteorological stations. Its a little trickier because the relative sea level of any place also depends on crustal motion. But anyway, we calculated that sea level had gone up 12 or 15 centimeters in a hundred years. I suggested that we also calculate the thermal expansion of the ocean water. That seemed perhaps to explain part of the sea level rise.
Weart:Was that done before?
Hansen:I dont think so. I think that our paper was the first one to do that, as far as I know.
Weart:Seems like an obvious thing after its done.
Hansen:Yes, and it is kind of small, but its a few centimeters. So that was the second thing, and then the third one was we did a trace gas paper where we showed that in the previous decade other trace gases had become significant, in fact, their net forcing equaled that of CO2. So because of that exposure, I was called by the people organizing that hearing. I dont think it had anything to do with our funding. But the hearing was an attempt to stop DOE from terminating this kind of research. Specifically at that time I knew I was having this problem with funding, so I went and talked with the staff person organizing the hearing, I believe his name was Jenson.
Weart:Did he call you?
Hansen:Well, Im not sure, think probably the contact with them came about via Rafe Pomeranz. Im not certain about that. I dont know how they knew, how they invited me. It couldve been directly from Janson calling me or it may have been Rafe Pomeranz. Because I know Rafe Pomeranz had come up to talk with us about the problem.
Weart:That was the first time?
Hansen:Yes. Im not certain of the date the first time they called and invited me up there, but I believe it was after the workshop. So he may have been an intermediary. But in any case I went to Janson after the hearing and said I thought we were in danger of losing our funding, and I didnt think DOE would look favorably on our proposal because they didnt like the exposure of the issue. And he said, Why dont you give the proposal to me and we will forward that or something. They would indicate they had some interest in it. I ended up deciding not to do that.
Weart:How come?
Hansen:Because I just feel that you may get a temporary success in funding by trying to do it through a political route, but I just didnt think it would work in the long run.
Weart:Actually since then pork barrel science has become common.
Hansen:Yes. He wasnt necessarily saying that it would be pork barrel, but rather that they would try to make sure that it got a fair hearing. Not that it would go through a different route than other proposals. I mean not that it would have a different funding source. Anyway, we did get zero out of that.
Weart:Then you did several other proposals hearings. Im just curious about during the 80s, you appeared several times. I wondered if you had any direct contacts with Al Gore, Chaffee, George Brown, James Scheuer, or was it mostly with the staff?
Hansen:It included direct conversations with staffers, but more often the contact was more with people like Rafe Pomeranz.
Weart:So you didnt sit down with Gore or George Brown or ?
Hansen:Well, Ive had several meetings with Gore subsequently, not prior to the 82 hearings.
Weart:Im referring to the period 82 to 88.
Hansen:No. There were a few times when I talked with Gore, two round tables in his office, but those were probably both in 1989. There were other cases where I went to meetings with him. He came here to the Cathedral with Carl Sagan, trying to get religious leaders. I met him there and also there was a second meeting with religious leaders in Washington and I saw him. I think between 81 and 88 I did testify at two or three Senate Hearings. [Looking through papers] There was one in 86 and one in 87. And I notice the one in 87 was in November, The Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. That one I actually prepared my testimony.
Weart:And you think it was 87 that you prepared this article for the testimony?
Hansen:Yes. This thing was reprinted from the proceedings of the first North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Changes.7 Actually, I just noticed this morning in looking at that, but that is sort of I already was making the figures for our 1988 paper. It wasnt quite the final form on that, but this was one of them. It even had the maps that I showed in 1988 testimony. This was a November hearing. I remember after this hearing talking with Rafe Pomeranz and the person for the Senate committee say, what we really need to do is hold it in the summers.
Weart:Before we get to that, you had a preparation for that I suppose. Did you write papers with an ye towards testimony?
Hansen:Again it goes back to the fact that its really interesting to look at a series of numbers. In 1977 or '78, approximately I started trying to use these meteorological station measurements to average over the earth to get a temperature curve. I started first with this student, Jeremy Barbera. I had to program these. So I had the notion that wow, one station could really give you information for a region. You could tell that just by comparing the different station records and seeing how well they correlated. We showed in one of our first papers that theres a high correlations out to distances of the order of a thousand kilometers between stations. So therefore we claimed that you could even say something about the Southern Hemisphere. The previous papers by Murray Mitchell, probably the best person, were just for the Northern Hemisphere. In fact he even left off the equatorial latitude just did 20 degrees north to the pole. Its somewhat different for the Southern Hemisphere. So in the late 1970s we were trying to put together that series of numbers and noting temperature, it still wasnt quite as warm as it was, but important to know what was going on. Then in our paper, which was finally published in 81, were speculating and arguing that roughly despite these ups and downs, it looked roughly like the CO2 would be, in effect, a driver of this warming trend. It also should become clearer in a fairly reasonable time period. So it was very interesting to keep adding on a new year, year by year
Weart:Once you got started it was hard to stop.
Weart:Now the 87 paper you mention the urban effect.
Hansen:Thats still an interesting thing there. Im writing a paper right now, in which we use satellite observations of night lights taken from this defense meteorological satellite which has this photo multiplier tube which is very sensitive. On the nights when theres no moonlight, then we look at the lights, so we dont even have reflective moonlight, and we can see very well where people live and where they dont. We use that to identify unlit areas, to identify where the stations are free of influence. We find that even the small towns there is some urban, human influence. But the issue there is of the order of a tenth of a degree on global average.
Hansen:In our 87 paper, which was the first time wed talked about that, we did remove the large cities and that did make some difference. The best estimate of urban influence is probably somewhat smaller than the indication we were getting.
Hansen:Youre trying to make sure youre not fooling yourself. Right.
Hansen:In fact people, Murray Mitchell and some other climatologist had pointed out that urban warming was quite large in some places.
Weart:So come 1988, even in the 87 testimony you were already preparing for this.
Hansen:As you just said, I dont think what we were saying was that different in 88 than in the previous testimonies. Its a little clearer than it was before, if you go all the way back to 81 for comparison. At that time temperatures had not yet passed [previous highs]. In our 81 paper we only had data through 78. Only in the 1980s did we start collecting the data in near-real-time. But by 1988 it was becoming clearer that the Earth was getting warmer, after several additional years of data. And I would say the models were more realistic, because in 81 we just used the one-dimensional radiative-convective model. In the 80s we had a three-dimensional GCM and were able to do these kind of simulations at least for a global mean, even though you cant do the regions with that model very well. At least we had more confidence I think in the simulations.
Weart:So it sort of passed the critical point in 88, or it was better organized in a sense. I think somebody figured out recently that that is still the hottest summers on record in Washington.
Hansen:Yes. It was convenient. The day before, either one or two days before the testimony I called Rafe Pomerance and sent him my official testimony. He either told me— I dont know if he arranged it or he just told me, but he said that there would be television network coverage.
Weart:[Inaudible]. Did reporters come at you a lot after that? A lot of phone calls?
Hansen:Oh, yes. Both 88 and 89 there was a lot.
Hansen:Yes. In that case I did the job. Frankly looking at these old things in my clippings, [inaudible]. [Looking through papers] I saw in one of these, oh yeah, I have a whole stack of 50 messages, 10 or 12 of them asking me to go on TV. Im not going to do any of them.
Weart:Youre not a TV personality. Thats not your business.
Hansen:Then there really was a problem. The politicians in power were very upset, Im told. Fortunately I was protected by John Heinz. I actually got a call the Senator from Pennsylvania. Of several people Ive met, he was the most impressive. He was very objective. He must have been a Republican, but he was certain he was an environmentalist. He organized a public discussion of this topic. He asked me to talk. At first his staff had sent me an invitation, which I had declined. Then he called me at home, and he said he had spoken with John Sununu in my defense. Actually he sent me a letter, discussing his discussion. So he did spend quite some time on this. Its obviously that the letter could not have been written by his staff.
Weart:Do you have the letter?
Weart:Im not saying I need to see it. Because one of our jobs, you know, at the History Center is not just to tape record interviews, but talk about preservation of papers.
Hansen:Yes. I have notebooks, which are chronological, but the letters and things to the extent I have them, are put away in some folders and not very well organized. [Looking at papers]
Weart:So theyre not at home?
Hansen:Well, yes these things are in my file here, but most of the political things I put them in the file at home.
Weart:[Inaudible]. You never had any interaction with yourself with
Hansen:No. Again, one of these clippings I noticed it has Sununus photo and my photo.
Weart:But not in the same room
Hansen:But theyre separate photos. [Reading a letter:] The Honorable John Sununu. Dear John. In light of our conversation, I reviewed Dr. Hansens proposed testimony in detail. Below Ive made three observations and then follow the suggestion...
Weart:This is 1989.
Hansen:This is May of 1989. So we include these changes in testimony, and so hes computing they cost a lot. Then OMB added a disclaimer, which in fact it was a closer call for [inaudible]. Hansen did ask that OMB not change his [inaudible] testimony.... See I never—
Weart:Its an interesting case. Thats been covered [in other published articles.] Lets backup from that for a minute. Im curious about some of the other personal interactions. You mentioned that during this period, you knew Schneider [inaudible].
Hansen:Yes. There was a good article on that, which I think let me described struggling to do science for society.8 It described Steve Schneider as a preacher. And they described me as a witness. Someone who believes he has information that is important. So, Hansen as a witness, Schneider as more of a preacher.
Weart:Youve known Schneider from way back, you said?
Weart:In what sense? Did you run into him at meetings?
Hansen:No, no. He was a student. He actually got his degree in engineering, but he got introduced to this topic by Ichtiaque Rasool, who was the guy who was later attacking me. The guy who got me my job and was attacking me, referring to our earlier situation. So Ichtiaque got Steve to work as a post-doc under him, I believe it was just after Steve graduated from Columbia. They wrote a paper on the effect of aerosols on climate, and ended up saying that the Earth may be headed towards the next Ice Age.9 I actually helped Steve with his calculations because he was not really a radiation transfer person, so I gave him equations for the scattering the solar part of the problem. He did the thermal part of the problem, and actually, he did a kind of slightly sticky CO2 calculation. He understated the greenhouse effect by a factor of two or so. We later figured out looking at his computer program that it was his mistake.
Weart:Im curious. What was it?
Hansen:Just his calculation of the infrared opacity of the greenhouse gas greenhouse gas, CO2, was wrong.
Weart:Problem with the data?
Hansen:Youd have to ask Andy. I dont remember the details. Andy Lacis, hell probably remember. What was the point? Oh, Steve Schneider. He and I went with my wife, climbing on Storm King Mountain. So we were pretty good friends.
Weart:Mountain climbing or night [building] climbers?
Hansen:No, no, no. I spent my time mostly in science. But we did hike at Storm King Mountain so he knew about these things. We also went out once or twice to dinner and went ice skating with him in Colorado after he moved to NCAR, and such.
Hansen:I always found him, you know— he prefers to talk all the time and I prefer to do the science. So he would come stand at the doorway, and I would try to continue to do what I was doing. Sort of saying, Go away, Steve. It was hard to get him to take the hint. But we were always friendly.
Weart:[Inaudible]. What about, did you have any personal interactions with some of your critics? People like Idso? Did you have any personal relations like that?
Hansen:Again, no. No, not personal, but I did respond to him. One of the articles that I just gave you was an Idso criticism, published in Science and I responded to that.
Weart:But this is entirely in the published literature.
Weart:Not standing up in meetings and arguing back and forth.
Hansen:No. I feel that I can do a fairer job in the written scientific interchange, but I would not have had the confidence to a public debate. Im not a debater.
Weart:So you dont go to conferences and stand up and argue?
Hansen:No, I dont do that. Only in the last couple of years I did accept a few invitations to debate. Its hard to chicken out when you get these invitations from someone like Frank Press. So I did officially debate Lindzen once, that sort of thing. Its available on the web. Then one with Pat Michaels which is being published, its about to come out.
Weart:Lets get back to the science. First, Pinatubo. [Inaudible].
Hansen:We had claimed after Agung, much after, and finally wrote a paper for Science that volcanoes would be a nice test of climate.10 A big volcano would provide a test of our understanding of climate response to a forcing. And a volcano came along, it was El Chichòn. We resisted the temptation explicitly to jump on that. I thought I would, but the model wasnt ready.
Weart:So you already had in mind that you would do it as a prediction?
Hansen:Yes. You really like to do it about the time the volcano goes off rather than later. Our global climate model was not finally published until 1983. It took so long. Partly because we were so slow; partly because we were using coarse resolution in the model so we had a hard time with the publishers and referees. It was published in 1983, so by that time we were a couple years beyond a volcano. Also there was no SAGE up at the time of El Chichòn. There was at the time of Pinatubo.
Weart:SAGE is what?
Hansen:Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment. It was a Langley experiment. So right after Pinatubo went off, shortly thereafter there was this meeting at NASA headquarters with observers and modelers. So we were able to get a pretty good estimate about how big the optical depth was for Pinatubo, so that was a great chance to predict before instead of after.
Hansen:It was pretty well received. We have so few examples, even though it is not really a test of decadal sensitivity. But still its useful. It even provided some check of the magnitude of the forcing, because the ERBE [Earth Radiation Budget] measurements did claim that they could detect a change in the radiation balance of the planet. It was a couple of watts and is really at the margin of error to measure that. I think the forcing was probably more like three watts than two watts. But in any case, there was a planetary radiation imbalance. The temperature response of the system was what we had calculated with respect to the forcings. It was a simple check. A single volcano is only comparable to natural variability. If you integrate it over the whole planet, then some things like the stratosphere temperature was way above the noise level. And the global average tropospheric temperature change is somewhat above the noise level.
Weart:[Inaudible]. What relations have you had with the IPCC? [Inaudible].
Hansen:Id pretty much keep at arms length. I have been involved, because they need data from different things, whether its our Pinatubo calculations or our temperature record or as one model result. Sometimes we just respond to their request and sometimes I might have been a contributing author. But Ive never gotten heavily involved in that activity. In fact, predecessor document of the panel I thought was fundamentally flawed. This is prior to IPCC. And then in the middle 1980s there was a document which This was a little earlier. This was before it was international in a major way. There was this carbon dioxide assessment.11 They concluded the climate sensitivity had to be at the low end of the range of climate models. But I claim that there was a mistake with their analysis. And that mistake—
Weart:Were looking now at Climate response times, its 1985.12
Weart:Hansen, Russell, Lacis.
Hansen:Right. So the point of this paper, a major point was to point out that climate response time is a function of climate sensitivity. And in their big document it was really supported by the Department of Energy
Weart:Yes, it was the U.S. Government... The Academy.
Hansen:Yes. It says the National Academy of Sciences, but nevertheless the key part in that was a piece by Mike McCracken. He assumed that the response time was 15, years independent of climate sensitivity. What we showed was that the response time goes like the square of climate sensitivity. So if climate sensitivity is three or four degrees then the response time is 100 years not 15 years. Then you get a very different conclusion. Thats the kind of thing where you get a huge group putting something together, and pieces of it will depend on whats done by one or two people. How can you track down all this? I claim exactly the same thing is going on now with—
Weart:Current IPCC [report].
Hansen:Yes. Right. They become huge. The whole stack now is not even one volume. Its got to be in several volumes. The CO2 thing is opaque. Theyve come to this conclusion that even if you do the Kyoto Protocol reductions in CO2 emissions it makes very little difference in the next 100 years. If you look at the CO2 growth rates, they come out with very large growth rates. But the factors that go into that, certain assumptions that go in, I just think theyre very far off from reality. One way you can prove that is again going back and looking year by year at whats really happening. Now youve got 10 years of IPCC since the first document. And if you look at the rates of change over that period with some of their models, youll see that theyre way off.
Weart:In what direction?
Hansen:In the direction, the forcing that theyre putting in is much larger than what is really happening. An extreme example is methane, they were off by a factor of three.
Weart:Factor of three, really?
Hansen:Yes. Even the actual CO2 growth rate falls near the lowest scenario. They have a range of different scenarios, but the observed data falls near the lowest scenario.
Weart:Why do you suppose that is? Are they trying to be pessimistic?
Hansen:Well certainly at present their scenarios are pessimistic. Back in the 1980s we would include a scenario which was assuming continued exponential growth rates for greenhouse gas emission, and that had actually been true for a number of decades. From 45 to the middle 1970s. Its useful to warn people that if we continue to follow that kind curve, it will have very dramatic consequences. But we shouldnt only look at that scenario. We should also look at others which are also plausible. But its impossible to influence this thing. Sure, you could go to these meetings and say something.
Weart:Thousands of people.
Hansen:Yes. And it certainly becomes somewhat political. Certainly the CDAC thing was driven by a more political thing. The CO2 assessment in the early 1980s, there was too much politics behind that, and theres politics behind the present IPCC. I just want to do objective science.
Weart:Okay. Let me back off from that idea. Theres one more paper that I wanted to ask you about, and thats this one in the late 90s of trying to evaluate the aerosol absorption and so on that you worked on.13 Its a little too recent for me to understand the struggle thats going on here.
Hansen:Well, the aerosols are not a new story, as we said. That goes back not only to Steve Schneider and Ichtiaque Rasool, but it goes back to Benjamin Franklin. So its nothing new, but earlier we could kind of get away with sort of ignoring it. You might be overestimating the forcing, because the aerosol contribution was negative. But until youre starting to try to fit things in more detail. See, in our 1981 paper I thought, well, aerosols probably provide some cooling, but on the other hand were leaving out these other trace gases, so theres some cancellation of error in there. So we kind of focused on CO2. Even our best estimates, at IPCC or our recent papers, are that probably aerosols direct and indirect effects are perhaps half as large as the total greenhouse forcing. And the total greenhouse forcing is about 50% CO2 and 50% all the other things. So aerosols are probably significant compared to greenhouse gases but not dominating over the long term scale. But as you try to do the problem carefully, youve got to include those. Charlson and others began to make an issue of sulfates in about 1990 or so. I was even co-author on a paper with him, which he wanted to be in Science to catch attention.14 And he had a press conference and everything. But the disagreement that we kept having was that I said, Youve got to put in a realistic single-scattered albedo from aerosols. Now sulfates are perfectly white and their single-scattered albedo was one. Of course theyre not pure. If you look at real aerosols, if you measure aerosols in the atmosphere, anthropogenic aerosols, youll find that single-scatter albedo is less than one, because its not pure sulfate. Most important, some is black carbon. The same processes that produce sulfate, fossil fuel burning, also produce black carbon. So our approach to that was, well, Im just going to put in a single-scatter albedo based on observations. And then you get very different evaluation of the importance of the aerosols, but it is important to try to understand the constituents of that. The impact of the aerosol thing was that IPCC had to include these [error] bars for the forcing by but then they had to include the aerosols going into the future. At that point you could say, and Im going to be a little bit unfair, that using aerosols as a fudge factor allowed them to explain what had happened in the past century. Now the current IPCC are going to remove the aerosols from the future because (to take a critical view) they didnt want their projected warming to come down. So theyre now taking aerosols out of the future, so that way it still looks like were on the verge of disaster. But Im being a little unfair, because I think its not too bad an assumption to say that aerosols probably wont get to be much more extensive in the future than they are now.
Hansen:Right. But to understand that problem and to get to have a reasonable policy you need to understand that there are different aerosols. Black carbon is probably a lot easier to control. Tica Novayov claims that the black carbon in the US has actually declined by a factor of three because these used to be coal burning on small scales. Its not so much the big aerosols that fall out very quickly and might be the ones that you see. The important ones are the smaller ones that are long-lived in the troposphere.
Weart:And all this is based on fairly recent measurements? [Inaudible].
Hansen:Yes. And my big complaint at the moment is that were still not measuring aerosols, well enough to really know. This is speculation. As I say, Tica Novokov argues this, but we dont have measurements to say. We dont even know whether the aerosol forcing is increasing now or decreasing.
Weart:I wondered if maybe we could go back to the 1960s, [you asked for measurements]. . Why do you suppose it hasnt been done?
Hansen:Well I know a specific reason. This is a very prejudiced opinion. I also think its a correct one, but anyway. We proposed an instrument, that was accepted to be on the first EOS platform, to measure aerosols. We didnt know microphysics of aerosols. Measuring full spectrum, all angles, and all the polarizations, so you could really infer not only the size distribution of the aerosols, but also the reflective index, which is composition specific information. We also proposed, and were encouraged by Al Gore and others, to do small satellite measurements of aerosols and other things. But that was not well received by the EOS program, which preferred large multibillion dollar satellites. Our experiment got thrown off of EOS. Were still trying to get these measurements done. As I say, its important to know how absorbing aerosols are changing. Its probably possible to reduce the aerosol emissions in fossil fuel burning, particularly as more and more of the fossil fuel burning is done at high temperatures in efficient power plants. You can really scrub emissions in that case. And even in vehicles its certainly possible. But climate is just part of the aerosol problem. The other aspect is human health. These fine particles, not the big ones that fall out quickly, they can penetrate human tissue very effectively. They cause increases in asthma and all sorts of respiratory and cardiac problems.
Weart:If you look back over the last 20 years, how do you think climate science has changed?
Hansen:Im afraid that its changing in the sense of more emphasis on models, which I think is a mistake. You know, back in the time of Jule Charney, back in the 1970s, he was really a very thoughtful guy and he was a great person, a prime user of models. He in a sense was the father of the use of satellite information to improve the weather forecast. But still he focused on the physical mechanisms of the climate problem. Yu need complex models for that which allow you to analyze many different processes and how they interact, but you dont necessarily need the biggest, finest-grained GCM.
Hansen:Yes, thats right. But thats a hard argument to make. They have good reasons. Theyll say weve got to resolve the case of the ocean in particular. But I think my point would be, you have to choose where you use your resources. I argue that for getting the processes, vertical resolutions is more important than the finest-grained resolution.
Weart:Have there been changes in size, specialization, relationships?
Hansen:Yes, I think theres been a progress in getting interactions with different communities. Social sciences are not that much integrated in the process. The degree to which they have gotten involved is perhaps about right. Some things havent changed, thats the problem. Theres still not enough separation of science and the politics; thats a sure thing.
Weart:[Inaudible]. [Inaudible section]
Hansen:We always have an escape valve as more and more of our energy is used for electrical power. If it turns out that the climate impacts are going to be too large to ac, even if we are burning coal at the power plants, the capture of the CO2 and sequestration is a plausible thing. And it may be cheaper than other sources of energy because coal is so cheap. Even with that added burden, it may be cheaper.
Weart:Okay. Finally, in getting back to this question of paper. We have here your administrative records of GISS, I suppose.
Hansen:Administrative things.
Weart:I suppose theyre officially government records. Have you ever considered the National Archives for them?
Hansen:This is really a very small organization, like 20 civil servants now, which is the largest its been since Ive been there. And most of my things are really theirs. I dont even have an effective secretary. Theres one secretary for this organization, we now actually have her on the sixth floor. So Im sort of my own secretary.
Weart:Nobody at NASA has ever discussed the records. NASA by the way has a poor program for preserving records.
Weart:Let me just ask you to bear in mind that at some point The National Archives may be interested. [Papers might be offered to them when you retire.]
Hansen:Yes. At some point I will sort out my records.
Weart:And you have some personal materials at home, which should be preserved somewhere [for example Columbia University archives].
Hansen:Yes, I have [inaudible].
Weart:Another question. This is something that were studying possibly. What happens to your e-mail?
Hansen:The organization, you know, Im doing it myself. And now its reasonably well-organized.
Weart:Do you keep all your old e-mail on a disk somewhere?
Hansen:Yes, its on the computer.
Weart:[Inaudible]. Okay. Anything else we should talk about?
Session I | Session II


text:
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 161-Gini Dietrich on how to create a MasterClass
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 160-Compliance Week 2015 Wrap Up with Mike Volkov and Jay Rosen
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 159-Alison Taylor on the intersection of CSR and the FCPA
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 158-Jeff Lurie on pre-acquisition M&A protocols
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 157-Training of Third Parties Under the FCPA
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 156-emergency podcast on Deflategate and the Wells Report
Episode 155-Mara Senn on FCPA Investigations and the Decision to Self-Disclose
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 154-Compliance Leadership-Persuasion, Influence, Tools & Tips, Skills and Tips
Tax Provisions in Business Acquisition Agreements
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 153-Doing Compliance in an Economic Downturn
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 151-Glenn Lammi of the Washington Legal Foundation
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 148-Mike Volkov on Criminal Enforcement of the Internal Controls Provisions of the FCPA
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 147-Prof. David Orozco on the use of compliance as a business strategy
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 146-David Simon on Foley's Global Risk Management Platform
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 145-SEC Enforcement of the FCPA, Part II
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 144-SEC Enforcement of the FCPA, Part I
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 142-Reflections on the Goodyear FCPA Enforcement Action
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 141-Pi Day and Compliance Programs
African Law Firms & Foreign Counterparts Navigate 'Tense' Relationship
FCPA Compliance and Ethics Report-Episode 140-Leona Lewis
Although the BE-13 requirements for foreign companies investing in the United States should be old news by now, there are an increasing number of questions on this issue. The new regulations were put in place in 2014, and...more
On March 31, 2015, Orthofix International N.V. announced it entered into an 18-month option agreement to acquire eNeura, Inc. Orthofix's website states that the focus of the company is on "improving patients' lives by...more
When a national 'champion' is at stake, lively political and media debate often follows, sometimes even where the sector involved is not particularly 'sensitive'. This is unsurprising in markets facing slow economic growth...more
Action Item: The Securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement action against Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company and its investigation of Mondelez International provide key lessons to U.S. companies seeking to acquire foreign...more
This past Wednesday, Judge Amit Mehta of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia set a hearing from May 5 through May 8, with up to three additional days if necessary, to consider the FTC's request for a...more
With the complexities inherent in many cross-border transactions – from cultural differences to the growing number of competition authorities demanding paperwork – the last thing one may want to think about is whether to...more
Action Item: In November 2014, the United States Department of Justice issued an Attorney General Opinion with respect to the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. ...more
We expect the slowly developing but increasingly perceptible trend toward community and regional bank consolidation in the United States to continue in 2015. In connection with growing bank M&A activity, closing risk in the...more
On September 22, 2014, Treasury and the IRS issued Notice 2014-52, 2014-42 I.R.B. 712 (the Notice), announcing their intention to issue regulations aimed at blunting certain of the benefits from so-called inversion...more
In Groupement des cartes bancaires, the EU Court of Justice severely reprimanded the General Court for its failure to properly analyze a restriction of competition 'by object' within the meaning of Article 101(1) TFEU....more
Attorney David Lagasse, Member of Mintz Levin's Employment, Labor & Benefits Practice, discusses the elements that both employers and senior executives should consider when negotiating a compensation package. ...more
Attorney David Lagasse, Member of Mintz Levin's Employment, Labor & Benefits Practice, talks about the use of an earn-out arrangement as a way to resolve disagreements between buyers and sellers regarding the value of a...more
Attorney Stephen Gulotta, Managing Member of Mintz Levin's New York office, discusses the importance of advance planning in the sale of privately held companies. ...more
Attorney Stephen Gulotta, Managing Member of Mintz Levin's New York office, discusses the key elements in a purchase agreement....more
Monumental US$15.1 billion acquisition results in the largest foreign acquisition by a Chinese company to date.
On December 7, the Canadian government approved the acquisition of Calgary, Alberta–based petroleum company...more
The Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice recently held a workshop to discuss the effects of patent assertion entities (PAEs) on innovation and competition....more
In This Issue:
- I. September 27, 2012 - Mississippi Certificate of Need Meeting
- II. Certificate of Need Program Report – Filings/Reports Since August 2012 CON Meeting
- Excerpt from II. Certificate of Need...more
Originally published in Law360, New York (September 27, 2012, 2:13 PM ET)
California's attorney general has recently launched a broad investigation into whether increasing consolidation among hospitals and physician...more
On August 27, 2012 the American Chamber of Commerce, Beijing, hosted a luncheon meeting where Ms. Li Qing, Deputy Director, National Development and Reform Commission ("NDRC") Price Supervision and Anti-Monopoly Bureau, and...more
In This Issue:
- Noncompete Not Aimed At Protection Of Goodwill Does Not Qualify For Sale Of Business Exception
- Federal Agencies Issue Cautionary Guidance Regarding Confidentiality Of Employment...more
Originally published in Federal Contracts Report, 98 FCR 210 on 08/14/2012.
The mid-90s were a watershed for the federal procurement system. The Federal Acquisition Streamlining Act of 1994 (FASA) and the Clinger-Cohen...more
Exotic dancer slips and falls, negligent handling of human remains and the usual neat contracts cases -- all this and more in the BLG Monthly Update for August!...more
Unclaimed property compliance was once an area of law that received little attention. But compliance now is being pursued aggressively, resulting in unexpected and substantial liabilities for many companies. States are...more
On June 19, The U.S. Department of State, Directorate of Defense Trade Controls (DDTC) and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) proposed a joint, largely standardized definition of "specially...more
In This Issue:
- CFPB Proposes Amendments to RESPA and TILA
- Defects in Chain of Title Must Be Raised Prior to Foreclosure
- Borrower May Sue Over Lender's Failure To Contact Prior to Foreclosure, California...more
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Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
ApplianceKenmore Refrigerator
Level of DifficultyReally easy
Time to do repairLess than 15 mins
Age of ApplianceMore than 10 years
Screw drivers
I first thought the defroster heater broke - took the back wall of the freezer off and cooling fins were fine. Then took the defroster timer out and opened it up. The contacts were badly burnt so the compressor and fan ran during only part of the cooling cycle. Replacing the timer took less than 5 minutes - turn off the power, remove one screw to take out the control box, cut the ground wire (new timer housing is plastic and does not have a ground connection), remove two screws to unmount the timer, unplug the old timer, plug in the new timer, fasten with two screws, put the control unit in and fasten with one screw, turn power back on.
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And hope for the future...
The park's management team of the mid-1990s was a tremendous source of contention to many Disneyland fans and employees. Headed by executives Cynthia Harriss and Paul Pressler, each with a retail marketing background, Disneyland's focus gradually changed from attractions to merchandising. The leaders came under increasing criticism for a host of cost cutting initiatives and profit boosting schemes.
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After nearly a decade of deferred maintenance, Walt's original theme park was showing visible signs of neglect. Paint was peeling off buildings, burnt out light bulbs, which were once replaced before they could burn out, were so numerous as to make the facades they outlined look like toothless poor relations of their counter parts on reruns of the various Disney TV shows. Disney purists such as Internet columnist Al Lutz decried the perceived decline in customer value and park quality, and railed for the Pressler regime's dismissal.
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Tuesday, September 9, 2008
© Copyright 2015 Clayton News Daily
I think Don LaFontaine can save me. With the back-to-back conventions, I've been drifting off into a world of ulcers and hate, but I think the voice of LaFontaine can cure me.He is an unlikely hero, I know. LaFontaine is famous for being the voice of movie trailers. They called him "Thunder Throat" and "The Voice of God." He had that gravel-and-guts voice. He was the one who made famous the movies' summary sentence, saying things like, "In a world where hatred ruled, one man's voice was raised." He was the one who would say, "One man, standing against the tide," and would say it in a voice so deep it made John Wayne sound like a little girl. There are two things about his voice, I think, that make him important beyond the world of marketing and movies. One, his voice cut through everything. It wasn't distracted by movie magic, explosions and stunt doubles. He boiled everything down -- like pundits, journalists, partisans and Americans with TV-tuned attention spans -- but he lost nothing, doing it. In fact, he made it clearer and more interesting. Two, his voice always carried the awareness of its own ridiculousness. Everything he said sounded serious, but also silly. LaFontaine knew that, and embraced the parodies, appearing in a GEICO commercial making fun of himself and allowing the trailer of the "The Simpson's Movie" to play on the preposterousness of his voice-overs. LaFontaine died last week, Sept. 1. I knew who he was only vaguely, but I saw his obit and started digging up old profiles. I found myself wishing he was narrating the Democratic and Republican conventions. I wanted him to replace CNN's entire team. I wanted him to steal the lines of all the political people, all the partisans and pundits, all the hacks and even all the voters, voicing the whole affair like it was a one-man opera. This is madness, I know. But I felt my insides twisting as I watched two weeks of conventioning, and I wanted "The Voice of God" to save me. I felt the ugly surge of snarkiness, in my throat. All the self-congratulations and straight-faced hypocrisy, all the blithe double standards, the disrespect and disingenuousness. I wanted to reach into the television and smack someone. I wanted to come up with vile comebacks, let loose all the partisan ugliness I have. I was sitting there, feeling all this foaming ferocity, and I realized how pompous and ridiculous I was. Which made me think I should surrender my lines LaFontaine. He could cut through all my mucked-up monologues with his throat-clearing voice, putting my impotent anger into over-serious and obviously silly statements. He could capture the craziness, and say it so it sounded like what it really was. He could say, "In a world where you will sacrifice all your principles to make a point, two parties thrived." He could say, "One man, angry at his television, and people who don't know he exists." I don't guess Don LaFontaine actually wanted to say those things. He wasn't exactly a political reformer, but I have the man's voice in my head, that voice sounding like God after 10,000 years of cigarettes, and I think I want to hear it. I'm going to narrate my political points of view in his voice, for the rest of the election season, and see if it helps knock the pompous bile out of my heart. Daniel Silliman covers crime for the Clayton News Daily. He can be reached via e-mail at email@example.com.
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Coral-repairing robots take a step closer to reality
By Darren Quick
April 16, 2013
Since humans are responsible for much of the damage to coral reefs, it makes sense that we should try and help repair them. That's exactly what a team from the Herriot-Watt University's Centre for Marine Biodiversity and Biotechnology is attempting to do with the development of underwater "coralbots." Now anyone can add their support to this worthy effort with the launch of a Kickstarter campaign that will help make the robots a reality.
The research team has already built a couple of prototype coralbots that can be equipped with onboard camera, computer, and flexible arms and grippers. These would come together to allow the robot to reattach healthy pieces of coral back onto a reef to help speed up the healing process. This time-consuming task is currently performed by scuba divers – or not at all. It also makes repairing reefs at greater depths difficult or impossible.
The team's plan is to develop a swarm of robots that would autonomously navigate across a damaged coral reef and transplant pieces of healthy coral as they went. The Heriot-Watt researchers says they have already tested their coralbot prototypes at sea but need help both with developing the computer vision system that would allow the robots to visually identify healthy bits of coral and with configuring a manipulator arm with which the robots could pick up and place the coral pieces in the right spot.
The team is hoping to raise US$107,000 to allow them to put all the pieces together and build two robots to publicly demonstrate the feasibility of the technology on a coral reef in a public aquarium. They hope that this will help attract further funds to ultimately realize their goal of producing a team of eight coralbots that could be used on coral reefs around the globe.
Given the nature of the project, backer rewards are limited to recognition of involvement in the form of names printed on the project's website or the robots themselves. But the real reward is the warm fuzzy feeling you'll get from knowing you're helping preserve one of the planet's most important ecosystems.
Dr Lea-Anne Henry, the leader of the project, gives an overview of the coralbots in the Kickstarter pitch video below.
Sources: Heriot-Watt University, Kickstarter
Why not configure the coralbot to be controlled by humans? We need more jobs for humans, not more robots.Constantine Kalpaxis
Am I missing something here? Surely if the coral is dead in an area, there is a real reason for its death, hence until you remove that from the equation, simply putting new live coral in that area will kill it, and you now dont have any where it was harvested from. Or did I miss something.
This will only work with lots of education, and understanding of external influences.James Evans
Have test site in Hawaii, then ship worldwide for those islands etc needing reef repair & PR work at aquariums worldwide & Science Channel. Have Hawaii as Test base & distrib center for coralbots.Stephen Russell
I wish I could persuade you -constantine- that our society does not get richer by paying humans to do jobs that robots can do.
And that just having jobs for people to do, does not benefit our society.
I am reminded of the story of two men who were laid off from their jobs on a construction project because the company was now using heavy machinery... One said to the other, Imagine how many men could be working with shovels to do this job! The other said, Imagine how many could be working if they used spoons.
Which goes to show ... _ I hope you can fill in the blank.JFP
What a ridiculous money-pit of an idea, it looks an attempt by BP to stop the world hating them. I wonder what they really want the robots for.
It would take a billion of these things just to fix the ongoing damage from anchors dragging in storms, and I doubt they'll ever work in rough or low-vis conditionsOzuzi
In Australia giant clams are often overturned after cyclones and some dedicated people go out and turn them upright again to save them. Maybe this robot could also do this. The Australian Great Barrier Reef Authority may be interested.Sandra Baxendell
I've done a lot of coral diving and coral lives where the ocean is rough which keeps them clean, at least the ones in under 50' where most of the destruction is.
What kills reefs most is dog curbing, septic tanks, ag, yard chemicals, etc wastes. Anything that feeds algae, etc that will cover, smother them. They like a very poor food environment and clear water.jerryd
"And that just having jobs for people to do, does not benefit our society."
In any circumstance like this, there's always a tipping point where the productivity gained through automation is offset by the loss in wagesRon Johnson
This endeavor is very virtuous if and only if you can figure out a way to make the robot calculate discrepancies between corals and non-corals... Which is the primary pitfall with all this.
However, it is possible.
One possible path in all this is with Python. You could use OpenCV as a means to autonomously process imagery / video and then "train" the system to recognize whatever shapes you choose to train it against. In doing so, I would imagine that the CPU speeds and storage requirements for this project would be pretty impressive, but, again, it is possible.Wolf_22
Makes sense in the deep water reefs, but if you have ever been diving I'm sure the is no lack of volunteers and the chance to use a water scooter, I'm there !Jay Finke


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Dr. Hamzavi is among three board-certified dermatologists trained to perform MKTP. They use the same technique developed by MKTP pioneer Sanjeev Mulekar, M.D., of the National Vitiligo Center in Saudi Arabia.
MKTP is among multiple treatment options available at Henry Ford for treating vitiligo, which currently has no cure. These include topical medications, light therapy, depigmentation and skin grafting. Ideal candidates for MKTP are adults and children whose vitiligo patches have not increased in size and no new patches formed in at least six months.
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Would you wear this crochet purse? Do you think you could make one?


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Puzzle Contest: Solutions
March 30, 2011
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At their best, who would win?
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Flash O'Groove
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Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 2,026
Hawkeye, you didn't understood me. I didn't said that the less talented players choose clay. I said that they had success on this surfaces because the best had ill suited games for clay. They were competing between themselves, with the occasional presence of an attacking player in the later rounds of the tournaments.
The weakness of these players is shown by their vulnerability to the attacking players and also to their vulnerability to nobodies like Meligeri, Dewulf, Svensson, etc. (see my previous post for the full list). These one semi-final wonder did not exist on the same extent in other surfaces. A point you did not address in your answer.
The players who "dominated" clay didn't not choose clay because they were less talented, they had success on clay because it was the surfaces were room was available for them. Just like clay was the surface which was available for Rosset and Dewulf to reach a slam semi-final.
The effective split of the field by surfaces allowed player to become surfaces specialist. But being a specialist doesn't mean that they were better player on the surfaces than generalist from a decade later.
Flash O'Groove
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STO vs WOW
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Lt. Commander
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 120
# 5
You can't compare the two, no matter how badly everyone wants to.
WoW, despite the fact that it has a community of 14 year old kids with severe head trauma and ADHD, has its strong points. The game, is GOOD.
But STO isn't WoW. It isn't "like" WoW, and any compare points would be more opinion than fact - or slanted because WoW has had that 5 year run and has ironed out a lot of bumps that STO hasn't even HIT yet.
So stop trying to compare STO to other games, and enjoy it for what it is: a game unto itself.


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Category Archives: URWERK
In a Watch World Far, Far Away: Futuristic Watches
From Time Machine and Brave New World to Star Wars, Blade Runner and The Matrix, we are fascinated by the future. Usually, these worlds are portrayed as post-apocalyptic nightmares where the human species is undone by their own doing. An everyman, our hero or heroine, bucks against the evil system in power to save humanity. Win some, lose some.
In these universes, technology plays a big role. All matter of machines and gadgets, including computers, weapons and automobiles have surpassed our current state-of-the-art. This alternate reality represents progress or regression, depending upon your point of view. But that's another matter altogether. Within all these scenarios notice that we still cling to the concept of time. Can't get away from the pesky idea. The ticking bomb always makes its appearance somewhere. Continue reading
URWERK'S Zeit Device UR-1001
On planet earth, we measure our lives against the clock of hours, minutes and seconds. The perpetual calendar allows for the counting of years. But in the universe's time, a hundred years is just a drop in the sands of time, which Ikepod interprets with their Hour Glass. Yet, the universe knows no bounds in terms of time. The earth is billions of years old. So how does one account for and capture this infinite expanse in a timepiece?
The boys at URWERK have come up with their own way of defining time with the UR-1001 Zeit Device. Nice rhyme there. According to URWERK, it's an uber complication that measures fleeting seconds of moments to an astronomical millennia. It marks seconds, minutes, hours, day/night, date, month, years, 100 years and all of the way to a monumental 1,000 years! Still quite infinitesimal in comparison to the universe but a colossal horological feat for this annual calendar.
The Zeit Device is laid out much like the other models in the URWERK collection. It works from a constellation of indications, including orbiting satellites and a comet-like flying retrograde. Most of the parts were manufactured in house by URWERK, as were the complications and indications on the watch. Composed of AlTiN treated steel with titanium elements, the UR-1001 comes in a limited edition of 8.
Here is a timepiece that you really pass on down the ages through the family tree. All you've got to do is make sure to "change the oil" indicated on the back of the watch. The 100 year indicator advances in 5-year increments much like a car. When the hand reaches the 100-year mark, the small pointer at the bottom of the 1000-year indicator on the left takes a small step to towards a new millennium.
Nicolas Lehotzky-Watch Designer Extraordinaire
When we think about watches, the first thing that probably comes to mind is someone sitting at a bench with a loupe to his eye and working on a movement. Certainly, watchmakers are an integral part of making and repairing a timepiece. They understand the mechanics involved in a watch's function. But a watch is more than just an engine. It's a whole unit composed of elements including the dial, case, strap and also involves making decisions about style and color. There is someone coming up with those concepts and he or she is a watch designer. And though a watchmaker and designer collaborate, it's the designer who guides the aesthetics, what we first see when we lay eyes on a timepiece.
Nicolas Lehotzky imagines concepts for watches and clocks. A talented young man of Swiss heritage, he represents the next generation of watch designers. I had the opportunity to sit down and discuss his background, inspirations and why he chose the very niche area of horology to apply his talents.
Meehna Goldmsith: How did a Swiss gentleman end up going to school in America at Art Center?
Nicolas Lehotzky: I am naturally creative, and I spent many hours as a child trying to build the many ideas I had, and nearly lit my bedroom on fire (the burn marks are still there for proof) on two occasions. I was looking for the ideal college while in High School, and Art Center College of Design had the correct balance of artistic spirit and discipline.
MG: Why did you travel across continents to do your schooling here in America when Europe offers great programs in design?
NL: One has to leave his comfort zone to stand out; how can there be innovation without adventure? Switzerland is the world capital of watches, but it is also a comfortable, traditionalist, and conservative place with a fairly rigid set of traditions, all of which adversely affect creativity. The world has too much to offer to remain in the same place. In Los Angeles, I've studied and worked with people from Asia, the U.S. and Europe. Besides, Los Angeles is still the city of dreams, and it is one of the most creative places on earth, a great place to be for someone like myself.
MG: You started off in transportation. What made you switch over to Product Design?
NL: The automotive designers and engineers have to adhere to strict rules and regulations, which makes innovation slow, difficult, and limited to styling. In contrast, Product Design is an endless source of opportunities.
MG: Who do you think are the coolest designers and what products have they designed?
NL: I am attracted to iconic designs, those that stand out from the crowd and make a lasting impression. There's I.M. Pei and his Bank of China tower, Santiago Calatrava and his balanced designs, Philippe Starck and his Alien Juicer, and the many designers who often work in the shadow of brand figures without ever getting credit for it.
MG: You switched your focus to watches? What sparked your interest to focus in this area? Was there a product or person who was influential in this decision?
NL: I grew up reading watch publications, and even built a wooden watch prototype as a child. I re-discovered watch design during a project at the Art Center. It is a field where I have high confidence in what I do, and as my ideas are finally getting more attention, I'm starting to take them to reality; an exciting process.
MG: Which watch designs do you admire and wish you had designed?
NL: I admire watches featuring unusual mechanisms, such as the Urwerk watches, Jacob & Co's Quenttin and MB&F among others. These watches stand out from the rest because they are innovative. That said, I also like some very classic designs such as an Omega Speedmaster or the Jaeger Le Coultre Reverso, and believe it or not, these can be hard to design as well!
MG: Do you think more exciting designs are happening in fashion watches? Where do you think design and haute horlogerie meet? Is there more freedom in one area or another?
NL: Most fashion watches come and go with each season to generate short term revenue, they are more akin to disposable fashion accessories than respectable timepieces. This is something I aimed to reverse in the latest fashion watch line I designed for SKYWATCH. I wanted to create a product with long term value, and put the same dedication into the design and engineering refinement as a higher end watch. Every aspect of the watch was designed, nothing came off the shelf except the movement. The case proportions were determined after a dozen prototypes, and each surface was adjusted to provide a pleasing reflection. Materials and finishes also were carefully selected, a difficult task considering the cost parameters. Good products have a certain honesty to them, and quality should speak for itself.
MG: Who and/or what has most influenced your own design aesthetic?
NL: I purposefully stay away from following, or getting my inspiration from limited sources, as this would also limit the possibilities in my own designs. I look for inspiration everywhere, whether it is the machines imagined by Jules Verne; architecture; the surface treatment on a sports car; antique Japanese artifacts; the list never ends. The world is full of usable resources, and talent is the ability to see and use them.
MG: What is your favorite watch complication?
NL: The Vacheron Constantin Skeleton Calendrier Perpetuel is a classic timepiece that will still look good decades from now. Cartier has a number of really interesting complications, such as the Rotonde Flying Tourbillon Skeleton and the Astrotourbillon.
The Harry Winston Tourbillon Glissiere; Hublot King Power chrono; the Montblanc Metamorphosis and the Cabestan are avant garde complications that are among my favorites. That said, antique mechanical clocks are interesting as well, as I can look at their gears and understand how they work. A watch does not necessarily have to be exceptionally complicated to be mechanically interesting.
MG: What have been your latest watch projects? Please describe them.
NL: I need to keep most details under wraps at this time, but I am about to complete a series of high-end mechanical clocks featuring never seen before mechanisms…it will be truly spectacular pieces. Also, there is a NASCAR themed toy watch in the works, and a TV watch line I'll start working on soon for my American clients.
To view more of Nicolas's work, visit his website.
The Girard-Perregaux Place Vendome 26: When a Homage Just Isn't One
Girard-Perregaux and Boucheron have a history of collaboration. In addition to GP providing movements for Boucheron's watches, the two have together created exquisite pieces showcasing both their talents. At BaselWorld this year they presented the Ladyhawke Tourbillion.
An extravagant combination of high watchmaking and high jewelry, this timepiece gave us something truly spectacular. Both companies brought their expertise to Continue reading


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He's not playing around anymore.
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Speakers Corner
It's free to register, to post a question or to start / join a discussion
Things that frighten us, such as speech-making etc.
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Likes # 0
Posted August 5, 2012 at 8:45PM
I just found out that the FE is frightened of being labelled a "Kindle nut". I don't think he was serious, but there are things in life that frighten us. With me it's having to make a speech even though I have done it a few times during my life. There are other things of course. I've also just been reading about Brumas's brother-in-law being bitten/stung by an unknown assailant. I know people who are terrified of ordinary garden spiders, I even know one person who is terrified of cats.
Is there anyone on here who has an unusual phobia?
Likes # 0
Posted August 6, 2012 at 9:55PM
It's People eating raw mushrooms for me. It makes me feel physically sick. Strangely, I'm happy to prepare and cook them, and I'm just as happy to eat them cooked. But raw???? :shudders:
Likes # 0
Posted August 6, 2012 at 11:55PM
Best advice I got about speech making was - have a good introduction and a good ending, with as little space between the two as possible!
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 7:26AM
"OK, so maybe not frightening, but certainly a phobia."
And that, of course, is the difference.
Phobias are not necessarily frightening (why would I be frightened of Christmas?) but are a totally irrational mortal dread.
If you have a genuine phobia you'll know what I mean. If you don't you won't.
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 10:34AM
Talking about possible phobias, perhaps brings me to a change in my life. I have always been one of those people who drawing blood, sticking needles and combating pain as just been on of of those things in life.
But a few years back I suddenly had a very great and noticeable dislike to the removal of stitches or staples after an operation. Anything else and no problem.
Is this a phobia or just being a pathetic wimp, perhaps making a child far more braver than me?.
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 6:41PM
I fear / dislike Cystocopy, catheters and their removal!!These days done with no anaesthetic.
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 6:59PM
john bunyan.
Don't forget to keep us all updated about your ongoing problem. I share your fear/horror of surgical instruments. I could do with an anaesthetic to have my annual flu jab.
Another thing I fear is anything getting anywhere near my eyes. I can put drops in them myself but I won't let anyone else anywhere near them. If I had to have an operation on my eyes, they would have to give me a general anaesthetic.
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 9:46PM
Driving under bridges. Low ones, because I've recently found a very small sticker on the back of my cab that says my 5th wheel height is 1.35m, whereas trailer heights are indicated on a 1.25m 5th wheel height. Which means my rig is 4in taller than I thought it was.
But the biggie for me is driving under (usually) motorway bridges when there is a pedestrian directly overhead. I live in fear of jumpers and missile throwers.
Likes # 0
Posted August 7, 2012 at 10:40PM
"I live in fear of jumpers and missile throwers."
I think that's probably true of everyone who does a lot of motorway driving - I know I tense up when I see anyone standing on a bridge as I approach, particularly if it's a bunch of youngsters.
Likes # 0
Posted August 9, 2012 at 3:13PM
My best friend in Scotland who was a slaughterer by trade fainted at the site of his own blood. I could never get my head round it as he was standing in blood most of the day but scratch himself and he was out for the count.
Likes # 0
Posted August 9, 2012 at 3:44PM
1953-1955 I was stationed in Br Guiana (now Guyana), our main concern in those days was using the Lavatory - always had to lift the seat to check for rats, snakes, spiders and other such nasties - could have been rather embarrassing!
Not quite a phobia, but the fear lasted many years, even back in UK I used to do the 'lift' each and every time - for at least twenty years!
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