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Immuno-virologic outcomes and immuno-virologic discordance among adults alive and on anti-retroviral therapy at 12 months in Nigeria
Author affiliations
1 Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
2 Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
3 University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria
4 Asokoro District Hospital, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria
5 University of Abuja Teaching Hospital, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, Nigeria
6 Institute of Human Virology Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
Citation and License
BMC Infectious Diseases 2013, 13:113 doi:10.1186/1471-2334-13-113Published: 1 March 2013
Predictors of immuno-virologic outcomes and discordance and their associations with clinical, demographic, socio-economic and behavioral risk factors are not well described in Nigeria since HIV viral load testing is not routinely offered in public HIV treatment programs.
The HACART study was a multi-center observational clinic-based cohort study of 2585 adults who started HAART between April 2008 and February 2009. A total of 628 patients were randomly selected at 12 months for immuno-virologic analyses.
Virologic suppression rate (<400 copies/ml) was 76.7%, immunologic recovery rate (CD4 change from baseline ≥50 cells/mm3) was 77.4% and immuno-virologic discordance rate was 33%. In multivariate logistic regression, virologic failure was associated with age <30 years (OR 1.79; 95% CI: 1.17-2.67, p=0.03), anemia (Hemoglobin < 10 g/dl) (OR 1.71; 95% CI: 1.22-2.61, p=0.03), poor adherence (OR 3.82; 95% CI: 2.17-5.97, p=0.001), and post-secondary education (OR 0.60; 95% CI: 0.30-0.86, p=0.02). Immunologic failure was associated with male gender (OR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.04-2.45, p=0.04), and age <30 years (OR 1.50; 95% CI: 1.11-2.39, p=0.03). Virologic failure with immunologic success (VL-/CD4+) was associated with anemia (OR 1.80; 95% CI: 1.13-2.88, p=0.03), poor adherence (OR 3.90; 95% CI: 1.92-8.24, p=0.001), and post-secondary education (OR 0.40; 95% CI: 0.22-0.68, p=0.005).
Although favorable immuno-virologic outcomes could be achieved in this large ART program, immuno-virologic discordance was observed in a third of the patients. Focusing on intensified treatment preparation and adherence, young patients, males, persons with low educational status and most importantly baseline anemia assessment and management may help address predictors of poor immuno-virologic outcomes, and improve overall HIV program impact. Viral load testing in addition to the CD4 testing should be considered to identify, characterize and address negative immuno-virologic outcomes and discordance.


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7iber.com (Hiber, Arabic for ink) is running again after bowing to Jordan's licensing requirement and being blocked four times, but it hasn't veered from a mission to produce good, professional, and critical content.
Read Whole Story
Friends and acquaintances across the Middle East/North Africa region often ask for advice on matters related to journalism, media in general, ethics, and how to prepare young people for this very exciting and ever-changing field.
What does the future look like? Will emissions keep climbing? How can a country like Turkey keep increasing the wealth of its citizens, yet also cut greenhouse gases?
The success of early data projects has shifted the tone from he-said, she-said sound bites to solid data sources, and has further inspired journalists, civil society organizations and governments to pool their efforts, and their data.
As the presidential race heats up, Americans are increasingly turning to political polls to try to understand the current opinions of the electorate. ...
The growing importance of data journalism will be recognized in the first ever international Data Journalism Awards.
Simon Rogers claims that data journalism is here to stay, because it is a standard of the industry and because, in spite of the changes it promotes and demands, at the end of the day it is all about making what we have always done: storytelling.
If states are the laboratories for democracy, as Thomas Jefferson famously said, towns and cities may be the Petri dishes that stress test the vitality of different species of online hubs.
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Money Smart
Common sense investing with Richard Leader
Monthly Archive for October, 2011
Do You Gamble?
In playing poker, there's a strategy called "all in." That means the gambler risks his entire pile of chips on one hand. If he's correct, he wins big, if he loses, he gets wiped out. Some investors also follow this approach with their portfolio, ignoring diversification, and can end up with nothing. Some employees of […] [Read More]
Block Out the Noise
Large macroeconomic issues such as the European debt crisis or possible U.S. recession have weighed on investor confidence this year. Many people express concern that the United States is experiencing problems that are much worse than ever before. Some think that the future is bleak. However, fear of the future is not new. If anything, […] [Read More]
Stocks versus bonds
Cheapness seems to attract buyers to store merchandise but not stocks. In fact, most investors instead buy whatever is most popular and expensive. For example, more and more investors are buying bonds. Yet bonds have been going up in price (declining yields) for thirty years, ever since 1981 when the 30-year U.S. Treasury was yielding […] [Read More]
Don't Give Up: 4th Quarter Rebound Ahead
I think we have been passing through a normally weak May-to-October period in the stock market. These six months always seem to have more than their fair share of declines. The third quarter is typically the worst of the year. The one just ended was the weakest for the S&P 500 since 1928. However, fourth […] [Read More]


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Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
ApplianceMaytag Dryer
Level of DifficultyEasy
Time to do repair1- 2 hours
Age of ApplianceMore than 10 years
PliersScrew driversSocket set
9 out of 13 people found this instruction helpful
Took off face of dryer (two lower screws below door in front) and then removed the drum which gave me access to the idler arm and idler pully. Vaccumed the interior to remove dust and lint. Replaced idler arm and idler pulley assembly. Replace old belt as drum was reinstalled. Opened rear access panel to complete final routing of the new belt over idler pulley and drive motor. Turned the machine on to check repairs and function. Closed rear access door. Pushed dryer back into place and re-leveled machine.
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Fight for last NCAA Final Four berth heats up
TEAMS bunched in the middle of the standings look to boost their Final Four hopes today in the 89th NCAA basketball tournament at Filoil Flying V Arena in San Juan.
Out to keep a hold of the No. 4 spot, San Sebastian takes on St. Benilde at 4 p.m., before Final Four aspirants Jose Rizal U and Arellano test each other's mettle at 6.
The game is an opportunity for the Blazers, who are in seventh spot, to gain on the Stags, while also giving JRU, ranked sixth, and No. 5 Emilio Aguinaldo College hope that they could still sneak into the semifinals.
But Stags coach Topex Robinson vowed his squad will come prepared even if they are still expected to miss center Bradwyn Guinto who has been diagnosed with typhoid fever.
Leo de Vera will return from a one-game suspension while Jamil Ortuoste is also expected to suit up for SSC after sitting out the game against Lyceum because of the flu.
The Blazers are coming off their worst performance of the season, losing to San Beda, 46-65, in a game where they failed to hit a field goal in the first 12 minutes.
JRU has lost its last four games, including a 61-64 decision to Perpetual Help last Monday. But coach Vergel Meneses has high hopes for big man Michael Mabulac who tallied season highs of 28 points and 19 rebounds in the loss.
With a 4-9 record, the Chiefs are teetering on the brink of another failed season.
The trio of John Pinto, Prince Caperal and James Forrester will be key cogs for the Chiefs' bid to make a last ditch push for the Final 4.
In Guinto's absence, Ranimark Tano has stepped up for the Stags who have won their last three games.
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text:
Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
ApplianceAmana Ice Maker
Level of DifficultyEasy
Time to do repair15 - 30 mins
Age of ApplianceMore than 10 years
Very little water got to the ice maker, so checked the ice maker and used jumper to start cycle--nothing happened to make ice, but wheel turned. Pulled fill valve off back and saw choked filter and dirty fill tube. Pulled out spring and insert from tube and they were very dirty also, so decided to replace the whole set. Ice maker now works and makes clean ice. Good project and not difficult.
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text:
Budget forces cops to shed cell phones
Department looks to save $300,000 using fewer devices
"I still have my key," Kanaski said. "No matter what beat you were working, there was always a San Diego Trust & Savings around."
The bank spent close to $50,000 installing the telephones near ATMs and paid a monthly phone bill of about $2,600. The phones were the brainchild of the former bank president, Thomas Sefton, a law enforcement supporter. The bank was sold in 1993.
Public pay phones were also plentiful back in the day. It wasn't uncommon to find a handful of dimes in the same pouch where officers carried their six-shot speed loaders for their revolvers, Ball recalled.
When cell phones began to catch on, officers for a while could use their personal phones to dial *51 to get patched through to the Police Department for free.
In 2006, the department launched an initiative to put PDA phones in the hands of some officers on the street. The personal digital assistants, which cost the department about $300 apiece, were used to verify the identity of suspects, listen to radio calls and view and send photos, including mug shots.
The devices were especially helpful to officers on bikes or horses who didn't have access to laptop computers. Motorcycle officers have since gotten computers, Kanaski said.
The effort helped the department earn the top spot in Computerworld magazine's ranking of private and public businesses using technology to mobilize field workers in 2007.
Now, more officers will have to learn to deal with the situation like Detective Gary Lawrence, who was never assigned a cell phone as part of his duties at the Southeastern Division, which includes the Lincoln Park and Skyline neighborhoods. If he wants to communicate with his team in the field, he often uses his personal cell phone at his own expense.
"I don't call victims on it because I don't want my number out there to the general public," Lawrence said. "When I'm not in the office and am in the field, if a victim is calling me, I won't know until I get back. And then you play phone tag."


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1972 Plymouth Fury, This is a real, documented Virginia State Police car in service in Chesapeake, VA from 1972-78. The car comes with documentation... More
1972 Plymouth Satellite Sebring Plus two-door, baby robin blue, straight body, 318 small block V8 motor, 141,000 miles, one owner, $10,000, negotiable. Located in... More
Survivors are fun, with automotive archaeology being one of our favorite subjects. Looking at this one-owner 1972 Plymouth Duster, you'll be amazed by the... More


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How Forward Looking Are Consumers? Further Evidence for the United States.
This paper extends a standard model of consumption to test for the existence of "myopic" consumers. The extended model includes "rule-of-thumb" consumers as well as consumers who are assumed to solve a dynamic programming problem. The model allows this second set of consumers, however, to be "boundedly rational." For a variety of reasons, they may be unable to fully account for their future uncertain labor income. The model predicts that this inability to correctly value future resources leads to the breakdown of the simple permanent income hypothesis and that consumption responds to predictable changes in income. Using data for the United States for the period 1951u1990, the paper finds evidence of such myopic behavior.
1. Introduction
A considerable amount of research has found that the strict form of the LCuPIH (lifecycle, permanent-income hypothesis) is not supported by the data. Consumption appears to be "too sensitive" to predictable changes in income. There are several explanations in the literature for this failure, but a Keynesian "rule-of-thumb" behavior is the explanation that has received most of the attention.
Campbell and Mankiw (1990) construct a model in which a fraction of income [lambda] accrues to individuals who, following "rules of thumb," consume their current income, while the remaining (1 - [lambda]) accrues to individuals who, being extremely farsighted, consume their permanent income. The rule-of-thumb behavior is subject to two interpretations (Shea 1995). One interpretation is that consumers are extremely "myopic." This nonoptimizing or myopic behavior implies that these consumers completely ignore their total wealth (or permanent income) when making consumption decisions. Another interpretation of the behavior of the first group of individuals is that they are liquidity constrained. These individuals have few or no real assets and have no access to capital markets. The empirical evidence from aggregate data is rather inconclusive, but evidence from more disaggregated data lends support to the liquidity constraints interpretation (Zeldes 1989a).
While the CampbelluMankiw specification, under either interpretation, generates excess sensitivity and results in an empirically more realistic consumption function, its treatment of the second group of individuals, who are assumed to consume their permanent income, is unnecessarily restrictive. As Kotlikoff, Samuelson, and Johnson (1988, p. 408) point out, "A second problem that is also routinely swept under the rug involves the implicit assumption that consumers optimize perfectly given their preferences and resources, and that they correctly value their resources." Their results, based on experimental evidence, indicate that "subjects made significant and systematic errors in their consumption choice, reflecting, in part, an overdiscounting of future income" (p. 408). This "quasi-myopic behavior" has a variety of sources, such as high computational costs, habit, self-control, lack of extreme rationality or perfect farsightedness, short multiperiod planning horizons, and so on (Mariger 1986; Boskin 1988; S hefrin and Thaler 1988; Blanchard 1997, p. 151; Lettau and Uhlig 1999, among others), which can lead to failure by consumers to fully account for their future after-tax labor income. I will show that this behavior, which is consistent with a limited degree of myopia that might exist among those who are assumed to be extremely farsighted, can lead to excess sensitivity and the failure of the PIH. Lettau and Uhlig (1999) call these consumers "boundedly rational" (p. 152). Boskin (1988) and Poterba (1988) discuss the important implications for fiscal policy resulting from such myopic behavior.
The evidence in favor of rule-of-thumb behavior in explaining consumption is too strong to ignore for empirical purposes (Dornbusch, Fischer, and Startz 1998, p. 308; Himarios 1995). Mariger (1986) argues that the failure to identify constrained and unconstrained consumers leads to models that are inherently misspecified. I will, therefore, use a specification that nests rules of thumb as a maintained hypothesis. The focus of the paper will be on the second set of consumers who are assumed to consume their permanent income, as in Campbell and Mankiw (1990). Based on the earlier discussion, I will relax this assumption and allow this set of maximizing consumers to behave in a "boundedly rational" manner.
The paper proceeds as follows. In section 2, I briefly develop an empirically tractable consumption function and discuss the empirical implications of the model. In section 3, I discuss the data and the econometric methodology, and in section 4, I present the estimation results. The evidence is consistent with the existence of rule-of-thumb consumers, a result that has been documented in previous studies, and also consumers who exhibit myopia of the type suggested previously.
2. Theoretical Background
Following Campbell and Mankiw (1990), I assume two types of households. Household type 1 behaves according to the LC-PIH. These consumers base their current consumption decisions on their lifetime resources, which consist of their financial wealth and the expected discounted value of their future after-tax labor income. A closed-form solution of this optimization problem is possible under certainty equivalence or under a quadratic utility function if income is assumed to be stochastic. Although quadratic utility can be justified on the grounds that it is a local approximation to the consumer's true utility function, its simplicity for computational problems is offset by serious shortcomings, and the resulting consumption function is likely to be severely misspecified (Hayashi 1982; Zeldes 1989b; Weil 1993). A more plausible utility function, assumed both by Hayashi and Zeldes, is the constant relative risk aversion function. Yet under such preferences and stochastic labor income, no closed-form solution is p ossible.
One way, though an imperfect one, to take into account this labor income uncertainty and derive an approximate solution to the optimization problem is to allow households to discount their uncertain future labor income at a rate higher than the rate of interest (Hayashi 1982; Zeldes 1989b). The assumption that the discount rate exceeds the rate of interest is amply supported by previous evidence (Hayashi 1982; Graham and Himarios 1996, among others). The approximate solution to the type 1 consumer's optimization problem is then
[C.sub.1,t] = [alpha][(1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + [H.sub.1,t]], (1)
where [W.sub.t-1] is the end-of-period nonhuman wealth held by these consumers (I assume that type 2 consumers hold no assets), [alpha] is the propensity to consume out of total wealth, and r is the nonstochastic real interest rate. The variable [H.sub.1,t] is the present discounted value of future after-tax labor income ([Y.sub.1,t]). If we assume that the share of after-tax labor income that accrues to these consumers is (1 - [lambda]), where [lambda] is the share of income accruing to type 2 consumers, then [H.sub.1,t] is defined as
[H.sub.1,t] = [[[sum].sup.[infty]].sub.j=0] [(1 + [mu]).sup.-j][E.sub.t][Y.sub.1,t+j] = (1 - [lambda]) [[[sum].sup.[infty]].sub.j=0] [(1 + [mu]).sup.-j][E.sub.t][Y.sub.t+j], (2)
where [E.sub.t] is the expectations operator conditional on information available in period t and [mu] is the subjective discount rate that consumers apply to their uncertain future labor income.
This specification of the consumption function assumes that individuals do not face any of the constraints mentioned previously. In order to account for this possibility, I modify the consumption function for type 1 consumers as follows:
[C.sub.1,t] = [alpha][(1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + [gamma][H.sub.1,t]]. (3)
The parameter [gamma] [epsilon] (0, 1) measures the degree to which consumers account for their future stochastic labor income. Admittedly, this is an ad hoc specification, but it is similar in spirit to others in this line of literature on consumption and captures one plausible form of myopic behavior: Type 1 consumers respond fully to wealth that they currently see and hold but fail to fully project their future income and future tax liabilities as implied by the government's budget constraint (Poterba and Summers 1987, p. 378). [1] This specification is also consistent with Zeldes's (1989b) formulation, although the interpretation is somewhat different. In Zeldes's formulation, the weight in front of the human wealth, ([gamma]), reflects precautionary saving behavior. His simulation results "show that current assets (which include income just received) and nonstochastic future income receipts are optimally given much more weight than future random labor income in making the current consumption decision" (p . 295).
I assume that type 2 households do not hold any assets, they have labor income [Y.sub.2,t] and they follow rules of thumb. Their consumption function is derived trivially from their budget constraint as
[C.sub.2,t] = [Y.sub.2,t] = [lambda][Y.sub.t], (4)
where [lambda] denotes the fraction of income accruing to the type 2 households.
Aggregate consumption is the sum of consumption over the two types of households:
[C.sub.t] = [C.sub.2,t] + [C.sub.1,t] = [lambda][Y.sub.t] + [alpha][(1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + [gamma][H.sub.1,t]]. (5)
The general form of this consumption function is similar to the one postulated by Blanchard (1997, p. 149), who calls it a more realistic description of consumption behavior. The budget constraint for type 1 households in period t is
[W.sub.t] + [C.sub.1,t] = (1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + [Y.sub.1,t] = (1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + (1 - [lambda])[Y.sub.t], (6)
and hence the aggregate budget constraint is given by
[W.sub.t] + [C.sub.t] = ([W.sub.t] + [C.sub.1,t]) + [C.sub.2,t] = (1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + (1 - [lambda])[Y.sub.t] + [[lambda]Y.sub.t] = (1 + r)[W.sub.t-1] + [Y.sub.t]. (7)
In order to eliminate the unobservable human wealth variable, H, from Equation (5), I make use of the following stochastic difference equation that describes the evolution of human wealth (Hayashi 1982):
[H.sub.1,t] = (1 + [mu])[[H.sub.1,t-1] - (1 - [lambda])[Y.sub.t-1]] + [u.sub.t]. (8)
The error term [u.sub.t] is defined as
[u.sub.t] = [[[sum].sup.[infty]].sub.j=0] [(1 + [mu]).sup.-j]([E.sub.t] - [E.sub.t-1])[Y.sub.1,t+j]. (9)
This error (or surprise) term represents the revisions of expectations between t - 1 and t and is orthogonal to the information set available to households in period t - 1. It is this surprise term that leads LC-PIH consumers to revise their consumption plans.
Lagging Equation (5) once, multiplying by (1 + [mu]), subtracting from (5), and using the private sector's budget constraint (7) along with the difference equation for human wealth (8), I derive the following consumption function in terms of observable
[Delta][C.sub.t] = ([mu] - [alpha][mu] - [alpha])[C.sub.t-1] + [lambda][Y.sub.t] - [alpha]([mu] - r)[W.sub.t-1] - (1 + [mu]([[lambda](1 - [alpha][gamma]) - [alpha](1 - [gamma])[Y.sub.t-1]] + [[epsilon].sub.t], (10)
[[epsilon].sub.t] = [alpha][gamma](1 - [lambda])[u.sub.t]. (11)
Consider now the implications of assuming that [lambda] = 0, [mu] = r, but that consumers cannot fully discount their future after-tax labor income, that is, ([gamma] [less than] 1). Equation (10) becomes
[Delta][C.sub.t] = ([mu] - [alpha][mu] - [alpha])[C.sub.t-1] + [alpha](1 + [mu])(1 - [gamma])[Y.sub.t-1] + [[epsilon].sub.t]. (12)
It is obvious that excess sensitivity now arises because consumers are optimizing under a number of constraints that prevent them from fully discounting their future after-tax labor income or because they exhibit quasi-myopic behavior due to habit, short planning horizons, and so on.
The consumption behavior captured by Equation (10) nests some of the independent explanations that have been offered in the literature for the failure of the LC-PIH. If we assume that LC-PIH consumers fully discount their future after-tax labor income ([gamma] = 1) and that they have infinite horizons ([mu] = r) (Blanchard 1985), then Equation (10) becomes
[Delta][C.sub.t] = ([mu] - [alpha][mu] - [alpha])[C.sub.t-1] + [lambda][Y.sub.t] - [lambda](1 + [mu])(1 - [alpha])[Y.sub.t-1] + [[epsilon].sub.t]. (13)
This is the case studied by Campbell and Mankiw (1990), and in this case excess sensitivity arises from rule-of-thumb behavior. [2] If we assume that all consumers are LC-PIH consumers but allow for the possibility of finite horizons ([mu] [neq] r), then Equation (10) becomes
[Delta][C.sub.t] = ([mu] - [alpha][mu] - [alpha])[C.sub.t-1] - [alpha]([mu] - r)[W.sub.t-1] + [[epsilon].sub.t] (14)
This is the equation estimated by Evans (1988) and Graham and Himarios (1996), among others. Here excess sensitivity arises from finite horizons or precautionary saving behavior. [3] If we assume that [mu] = r, [lambda] = 0, and [gamma] = 1, then Equation (10) reduces to the familiar martingale hypothesis:
[Delta][C.sub.t] = ([mu] - [alpha][mu] - [alpha])[C.sub.t-1] = [epsilon].sub.1]. (15)
It is clear from this analysis that "excess sensitivity" can arise from a combination of rule-of-thumb behavior, whatever its causes, finite horizons, and myopic behavior of the form proposed previously and that the single separate explanations proposed in the literature might not be adequate in describing consumption behavior. Indeed, as Himarios (1995) has shown, ignoring some of these explanations results in misspecification that biases the results of testing for the other hypotheses. Equation (10) provides a useful framework for evaluating these different hypotheses controlling for data, sample period, and estimating technique.
3. The Data and Econometric Methodology
Estimation Method and Econometric Issues
Equation (10) will form the basis for testing the hypotheses discussed previously. By assumption, the error term in this equation is white noise, and it is orthogonal to the information set [I.sub.t-1]. Because current income, however, appears in the equation and [E.sub.t]([[epsilon].sub.t]/[I.sub.t] [neq] 0, one can obtain consistent estimates only by using instrumental variables. There are additional reasons that require the use of instrumental variables. For example, I have assumed that transitory consumption or preference shocks are zero. However, the existence of such shocks will introduce an MA(1) error in the transformed equation and make the error term correlated with variables dated t - 1 as well. Consistent estimates can be obtained by using the generalized method of moments estimator (GMM) with instruments dated t - 2 and earlier to avoid misspecification arising from time-averaging and durability. [4]
Following Campbell and Mankiw (1990), I use lagged income to divide all the variables in Equation (10) before estimation to account for the fact that both consumption and income do not follow homoscedastic linear processes in levels. An added benefit of this transformation is the induced stationarity of the right-hand-side variables. Under the LC-PIH and the alternative described by Equation (10), consumption and income and income and wealth are cointegrated (i.e., they share common stochastic trends), and therefore their ratios should be stationary (Gali 1990; Graham and Himarios l996). [5]
The real rate of return r cannot be identified from Equation (l0). [6] Rather than fixing its value, however, as some previous studies have done, one can estimate Equation (10) along with the following equation for the real after-tax rate of return:
[varphi](L)([[rho].sub.t] - r) = [[eta].sub.t], (16)
where [varphi](L) is a polynomial in the lag operator and [[eta].sub.t] is a zero-mean, finite-variance white noise error term. [7] If the real after-tax rate of return for assets ([[rho].sub.t]) is stationary, then the expected real return can be estimated as its sample unconditional mean.
The Data
Following most previous studies, I measure consumption as the sum of expenditures on services and nondurables in constant 1987 dollars. I follow Campbell and Mankiw (1990) and divide this measure by 0.879, which is the mean ratio of services and nondurables consumption to total consumption over the sample period. Labor income is constructed as in Blinder and Deaton (1985) from NIPA data. The nonhuman wealth variable is an adjusted measure of the household sector's net worth constructed from Balance Sheets for the U.S. Economy. This measure is the result of adding household tangible assets and household financial assets and subtracting household liabilities. Where feasible, market rather than book values are used. All variables are divided by population to yield per capita measures. The measure for the real after-tax rate of return on assets is the ratio of after-tax corporate profits from current production to net reproducible assets valued at replacement cost. This measure is from the April 1991 Survey of C urrent Business. The data are annual observations from 1947 to 1990. [8] The Appendix provides more information on the variables and their sources.
4. Estimation Results
I estimate the system of Equations (10) and (16) using services and nondurables as a measure of consumption for the period 1950-1990. The first three observations are used up in transformations and lagged instruments. A series of diagnostic tests indicated that the real after-tax rate of return can be adequately represented by an AR(1) process. I use the GMM technique to estimate the system of Equations (10) and variants thereof and (16). Standard errors are calculated using the Newey-West estimator. The instrument set consists of the second and third lags of all the transformed variables in the regression and a constant. The choice of the instrument set was based on evidence that weak or irrelevant instruments can have deleterious effects on the GMM estimator and that the lagged right-hand-side variables are likely to have good explanatory power, thus alleviating the problems associated with poor instrument relevance (Fuhrer, Moore, and Schuh 1995). Given that the number of instruments is greater than the n umber of parameters to be estimated, the system of equations is overidentified. The overidentification restrictions imposed by the extra instruments, and thus the validity of the specification of the model, are tested by using the Hansen--Singleton J-test. The extra instruments also serve the purpose of improving the efficiency of the parameter estimates (Davidson and MacKinnon 1993, P. 595).
Table 1, line 1, presents the nonlinear ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates of [gamma], [alpha], [mu] [lambda], and r as a benchmark. The estimates of [alpha], [mu], [lambda], and r have the expected sign, and their size is consistent with previous estimates. The estimate of [gamma] is considerably less than one, indicating the possibility of myopic behavior. Significance tests are not appropriate with the OLS estimator, but if the GMM estimator is successful, the OLS and GMM estimates should be of comparable magnitudes. Rows 2 through 7 present the estimates with autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors. All the estimates in row 2 have the correct sign and are statistically significant at conventional levels. The estimates are similar to the OLS estimates, indicating that the choice of the particular set of instruments is not critical to the results. The [X.sup.2] test (J-test) for the validity of the overidentifying restrictions is small and insignificant and does not provide any e vidence against the model. The estimate of [lambda]] (0.406) falls within the range estimated by Campbell and Mankiw (1990). The estimate of the discount rate ([mu]) of 8.6% exceeds the estimate of the interest rate (r) of 4.3% and this difference is statistically significant. A t-test for the difference between the two has a value of 3.17. The crucial parameter of interest ([gamma]) measuring the degree of myopic behavior is around 0.5, and it is statistically significant at the 1% level. This estimate indicates a significant degree of shortsighted behavior but certainly not extreme myopia, as it is significantly greater than zero. The t-statistic for the restriction that [gamma] = 1 is 3.618 and rejects the restriction at the 1% significance level. [9] I should note that there is a complication in testing the hypotheses concerning the value of [gamma]. This parameter cannot be negative or greater than one on a priori grounds. The complication arises because the null hypotheses of zero or one lie on the boundary of the parameter space. [10] There is no clear solution to this problem, but Pudney and Thomas (1995, p. 375) point out that "in practice, the usual procedure for a test of this type is to examine both the conventional [X.sup.2] statistic and also separate one-sided asymptotic t-ratios for each test." One-sided t-statistics for the hypotheses [H.sub.0]: [gamma] = 0, [H.sub.a]: [gamma] [greater then] 0 and [H.sub.0]: [gamma] = 1, [H.sub.a] [gamma] [less then] 1 reject the null in both cases at the 1% significance level. The restrictions are also tested with a likelihood ratio type test constructed as C = T[(J([[beta].sup.r]) - J([[beta].sup.u])]. This test follows a [X.sup.2] distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of restrictions imposed. The variable T is the number of observations, while J([beta]) is the minimized value of the objective function. The superscripts r and u show this value for the restricted version and the unrestricted version, respectively. The same estimator of the covariance matrix is used in both the restricted and the unrestricted version to ensure that the test statistic is properly signed. The numbers in the last column indicate the value of this C-statistic for the various restrictions with the significance level at which the restriction is rejected shown in parentheses underneath. Rows 3 and 4 impose the restrictions [gamma] = 1 and [gamma] = 0, respectively. The restriction that households fully discount their future after-tax labor income is rejected at the 1.5% significance level, while the restriction that they completely ignore it is much more strongly rejected. The next three lines impose the restrictions that result in the different hypotheses for the failure of the PIH that I discussed previously. In all cases the restrictions are rejected. Of particular interest is the restriction in row 6, which results in the Campbell-Mankiw specification. The restriction is rejected at the 1.9% significance level when tested against a more encompassing model. The Campbell-Mankiw specification thus appears overly restrictive compared to a model that allows households to discount their future income at a rate higher than the rate of interest and to have less than perfect foresight.
Although the sample is rather small, it would still be instructive to check the sensitivity of the results to different periods. I estimated the equations for four subperiods: 1951-1981, 1956-4990, 1960-1990, and 1951-1985. The estimates for the first three periods range in value from 0.36 to 0.44, and the restriction that [gamma] = 1 can be rejected in all cases. The last period is the exception, with [gamma] taking on a value of 0.984. The restriction cannot be rejected in this case.
5. Conclusions
The evidence from the modified model that I proposed previously supports the existence of both rule-of-thumb consumers and consumers who suffer, to some degree, from myopia with regard to their future income and taxes. This quasi-myopic behavior has many sources and does not necessarily mean that consumers are not optimizing. Faced with a multitude of constraints and lack of perfect information, problems that the PIH assumes away, consumers are unable to fully account for future uncertain income and tax streams. While useful as a benchmark for analyzing a multitude of problems, the strict version of the PHI fails as an accurate descriptor of consumer behavior. This paper has used a rather ad hoc modification of a well-specified model to capture this quasi-myopic behavior. The challenge for future research is to develop models that incorporate the constraints mentioned previously and generate such behavior in a rigorous way. Recent models of the type investigated by Lettau and Uhlig (1999), where consumers ar e assumed to behave "boundedly rationally," may prove useful in explaining observed consumption behavior more accurately.
(*.) Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA; E-mail email@example.com.
I wish to thank two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors or omissions are my own.
Received April 1998; accepted August 1999.
(1.) Lee (1991) uses the same approach to measure the extent to which consumers perceive government bonds as net wealth. His parameter [theta] [epsilon] (0, 1) is imposed ad hoc in an otherwise optimizing model.
(2.) Campbell and Mankiw follow Flavin (1981) and essentially impose the restriction that [mu] = [alpha]. In this case, (1 + [mu])(1 - [alpha]) is roughly equal to one, and (13) reduces to that estimated by Campbell and Mankiw.
(3.) It is easy to substitute [W.sub.t-1] out of the equation and show that consumption responds to lagged income. Kimball and Mankiw (1989) show that [mu] [neq] [rho] is consistent with a precautionary saving motive. Haug (1996) tests Blanchard's finite horizon model with Canadian data and strongly rejects it.
(4.) The potential problems that may arise from time aggregation were investigated in Graham and Himarios (1996), who, using essentially the same data, found no evidence of biases.
(5.) Graham and Himarios (1996) eatablish cointegration between consumption and income and income and wealth for the period 1952-1991. Though the relatively small size limits the usefulness of unit root teats, I performed adjusted Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests on the ratios in the regression. These tests reject a unit root for the dependent variable and the ratio of current to lagged income at the 1% level but fail to reject it for the consumption-to-income and wealth-to-income ratios in the full sample. Even minor adjustments in the sample, however, reverse this result, and a unit root is rejected at the 5% level or better. The fragility of these results is well known, and it is common practice in such cases to use theory as a guide.
(6.) Since the equation is nonlinear only in the parameters, it can be estimated as an unrestricted linear model (Evans 1988; Graham and Himarios 1996). One can then test whether the estimated composite coefficients have the probability limits implied by the different assumptions. However, given that the model is overidentified, the underlying parameters cannot be recovered. By using a nonlinear estimator, one can get direct estimates of the parameters in question that will give a more meaningful measure of any rejection that might occur.
(7.) I wish to thank Paul Evans for suggesting this particular approach for identifying the after-tax rate of return on assets.
(8.) The end of the sample is dictated by the availability of some series.
(9.) Though not directly comparable, this result is consistent with the findings of Shapiro and Slemrod (1995), who conclude that 43% of the households surveyed behaved as if they were subject to myopia.
Blanchard, Olivier. 1997. Macroeconomics. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
(10.) I wish to thank an anonymous referee for pointing out this problem.
Blanchard, Olivier. 1985. Debt, deficits, and finite horizons. Journal of Political Economy 93:223-47.
Blinder, Alan S., and Angus Deaton. 1985. The time series consumption function revisited. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 0:465-511.
Boskin, Michael J. 1988. Consumption, saving, and fiscal policy. American Economic Review 78:401-7.
Campbell, John Y., and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1990. Permanent income, current income, and consumption. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 8:265-78.
Davidson, Russell, and James G. MacKinnon. 1993. Estimation and inference in econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Evans, Paul. 1988. Are consumers Ricardian? Evidence for the United States. Journal of Political Economy 96:983-1004.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fischer, and Richard Startz. 1998. Macroeconomics. 7th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Flavin, Marjorie A. 1981. The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about future income. Journal of Political Economy 89:974-1009.
Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., George R. Moore, and Scott D. Schuh. 1995. Estimating the linear quadratic inventory model: Maximum likelihood versus generalized method of moments. Journal of Monetary Economics 35:115-57.
Gali, Jordi. 1990. Finite horizons, life-cycle savings, and time-series evidence on consumption. Journal of Monetary Economics 26:433-52.
Graham, Fred C., and Daniel Himarios. 1996. Consumption, wealth and finite horizons: Tests of Ricardian equivalence. Economic Inquiry 34:527-44.
Haug, Alfred A. 1996. Blanchard's model of consumption: An empirical study. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 14:169-77.
Hayashi, Fumio. 1982. The permanent income hypothesis: Estimation and testing by instrumental variables. Journal of Political Economy 90:895-916.
Himarios, Daniel. 1995. Euler equation tests of Ricardian equivalence. Economics Letters 48:165-71.
Kimball, Miles S., and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1989. Precautionary saving and the timing of taxes. Journal of Political Economy 97:863-79.
Kotlikoff, Lawrence J., William Samuelson, and Stephen Johnson. 1988. Consumption, consumption mistakes, and fiscal policy. American Economic Review 78:409-12.
Lee, Bong-Soo. 1991. Government deficits and the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Monetary Economics 27:425-43.
Lettau, Martin, and Harald Uhlig. 1999. Rules of thumb versus dynamic programming. American Economic Review 89:148-74.
Mariger, Randall. 1986. Consumption behavior and the effects of government fiscal policy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Poterba, James. 1988. Are consumers forward looking? Evidence from fiscal experiments. American Economic Review 78:413-8.
Poterba, James M., and Lawrence H. Summers. 1987. Finite lifetimes and the effects of budget deficits on national saving. Journal of Monetary Economics 20:369-91.
Pudney, Stephen, and Jonathan Thomas. 1995. Specification tests for the competing risks duration model: An application to unemployment duration and sectoral movement. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 57:323-47.
Shapiro, D. Matthew, and Joel Slemrod. 1995. Consumer response to the timing of income: Evidence from a change in tax withholdings. American Economic Review 85:274-83.
Shea, John. 1995. Myopia, liquidity constraints, and aggregate consumption: A simple test. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 27:798-805.
Weil, Philippe. 1993. Precautionary savings and the permanent income hypothesis. Review of Economic Studies 60:367-83.
Shefrin, Hersh M., and Richard H. Thaler. 1988. The behavioral life-cycle hypothesis. Economic Inquiry 26:609-43.
Zeldes, Stephen P. 1989a. Consumption and liquidity constraints: An empirical investigation. Quarterly Journal of Economics 97:305-46.
Zeldes, Stephen P. 1989b. Optimal consumption with stochastic income: Deviations from certainty equivalence. Quarterly Journal of Economics 104:275-98.
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimates of Equations (10) and (16): 1950-1990 [alpha] [gamma] [mu] r [lambda] J-test C-test 1 0.076 0.347 0.082 0.044 0.469 (0.028) (0.262) (0.028) (0.006) (0.048) 2 0.071 0.471 0.086 0.043 0.406 9.221 (0.012) (0.146) (0.013) (0.003) (0.051) (0.904) 3 0.043 1 0.079 0.042 0.357 15.164 5.943 (0.009) (0.018) (0.003) (0.047) (0.584) (0.015) 4 0.106 0 0.095 0.044 0.571 26.771 17.550 (0.007) (0.010) (0.005) (0.032) (0.061) (0.000) 5 0.020 1 [mu] = r 0.042 0.379 17.155 7.935 (0.003) (0.003) (0.046) (0.512) (0.019) 6 0.058 1 0.102 0.040 0 74.338 65.117 (0.007) (0.014) (0.002) (0.000) (0.000) 7 0.382 0.491 [mu] = r 0.043 0.408 15.049 5.829 (0.013) (0.188) (0.003) (0.051) (0.592) (0.016)
The J-test is a test of the validity of the overidentifying restrictions with its significance level shown in parentheses. The C-test is a likelihood ratio test for the validity of the imposed restrictions. The number in parentheses underneath indicates the significance level at which the restriction is rejected. Row 1 presents the nonlinear ordering least squares (OLS) estimates. The rest of the rows are GMM estimates with autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity consistent standard errors.
1. The consumption and income series come from the National Income and Product Accounts of the U.S. (vols. 1 and 2). Consumption is measured as expenditures on nondurable goods and services in 1987 dollars. The after-tax labor income (Y) was constructed as follows: Let L be the sum of wages, salaries, and other labor income and I be the sum of personal interest earnings, personal dividend earnings, and rental income to persons. Then Y = L+ government transfers to persons + (L/(I + L)) times proprietors' income minus social security contributions (by employees) minus (L/(I + L)) times personal income taxes.
2. Nonhuman wealth was constructed from end-of-year data from Balance Sheets for the U.S. Economy, 1945-1992. The variable W is defined as private sector net worth minus pension fund reserves minus par value of household holdings of tax-exempt obligations and U.S. government securities plus [P.sup.*] (defined shortly) times par value of household holdings of tax-exempt obligations plus the ratio of par value of household holdings of U.S. government securities to the par value of total outstanding U.S. government securities times the market value of privately held outstanding U.S. government debt (constructed by Michael Cox). The variable [P.sup.*] is a approximate market price for state and local obligations from Survey of Current Business, Current Business Statistics, Section 6: Finance, Bonds (Standard and Poors Corporation), domestic municipal bond prices per dollar of par value.
3. Per capita variables are constructed by dividing by the total population of the United States taken from Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1993, p. 8, Table 2.
4. Real variables, when not directly available, were constructed by dividing by the implicit price index constructed as the ratio of nominal to real expenditures on nondurable goods and services.
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text:
Karzai purges police, Taliban repulsed in Afghan south
By Sayed Salahuddin
KABUL (Reuters) – Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai has
sacked dozens of senior police officials days after anti-U.S.
riots in Kabul, an official said on Saturday, while up to 32
Taliban fighters were killed in clashes in the south.
The shake-up may also include Kabul's police chief, General
Jamil Junbish, whose forces failed to prevent rioters from
rampaging through the city on Monday after a U.S. military
truck crashed into Afghan vehicles and killed at least five
The worst anti-American unrest in Kabul since the fall of
the Taliban in 2001 coincided with the bloodiest phase in a 4
1/2 year-old insurgency raging in the country's south and east.
Nearly 400 people died in May alone, mostly militants
killed by coalition air strikes, but at least 17 civilians were
also killed, fuelling resentment against the U.S. military
On Friday, coalition and Afghan troops recaptured a
district of the central southern province of Uruzgan that had
fallen under Taliban control for the past few days.
"Fifteen bodies of the enemies of Afghanistan lie in the
battle field and up to 20 of them have been killed. The
operation is still going on against the enemies who are on the
run," Zahir Azimi, a Defense Ministry spokesman, said in a
A coalition spokesman said the operation had involved air
strikes. He could not comment on Taliban casualties, but said
there were none on the U.S. and Afghan side.
After the Taliban took the district, they said they had
killed over a dozen police and had taken up to 40 as hostages.
Twenty were later released.
Separately, 12 Taliban were killed in an attack on a police
station in neighboring Kandahar province on Friday, said Dawud
Ahmadi, a spokesman for the provincial governor.
The Taliban is active in Kabul too, but no-one has blamed
them for the riots on May 29, which were largely fueled by
youths from the northern parts of the city, where people are
generally hostile not only to the Taliban, but Karzai too.
Monday riots in the capital prompted Karzai to order the
replacement of more than 80 interior ministry generals, the
official said on condition of anonymity.
The interior ministry said in a statement that 86 police
generals have been appointed for "improvement and maintenance
of security and for necessary reforms in the ministry."
Police generals are in charge of precincts and departments
within the Interior Ministry.
During Monday's protests against the U.S. presence, rioters
looted shops, besieged a television station, burned the offices
of a U.S. aid group, and broke windows of a new hotel before
reaching the gates of parliament and the U.S. embassy.
At least seven people were killed in the riots.
The top traffic police officer in the district where the
accident happened said he saw U.S. soldiers at the tail of a
withdrawing convoy shoot three people as hundreds of people
surged toward departing U.S. vehicles.
Karzai, who was also the target of protesters anger, has
condemned the use of arms by the U.S.-led coalition forces.
Kabul has been under a night time curfew since the riots.


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Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
ApplianceHotpoint Dryer
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Time to do repairLess than 15 mins
Age of Appliance1 - 4 years
1 out of 2 people found this instruction helpful
pulled out the old one and put in the new one. I wish all repairs were this easy. I also had to reattach the vent hose, which is annoying because I'm the only one who fits behing the dryer without disconnecting the gas. I never touch the gas related parts. I appreciate how easy your website made it, to get the parts, I would recomend this site and will be back myself.
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text:
The observatory is equipped with a professional quality 24-inch reflecting telescope housed under a 6-meter rotating dome. Additional telescopes can be set up on an adjacent observing pad. With these instruments, visitors can view the moon, planets, star clusters, nebulae, and galaxies.
May 21
Laid out from here to near the west end of campus are models of
the Sun and planets, with all sizes and distances scaled down from
their true values by a factor of approximately ten billion.
In August 2006, the International Astronomical Union established
three criteria to define an object as a planet in our solar
1) it must be a natural body
orbiting the sun,
2) it must have strong enough
self-gravity to deform itself into a round shape, and
3) its gravity must be strong enough
that it is the dominant object in its region of space. Under these
rules, we have eight planets in our solar system: Mercury, Venus,
Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. Each of these,
along with the sun, is represented in the GTCC sidewalk solar
Also included in our model are representatives of two
populations of smaller bodies in our solar system: the main belt of
rocky asteroids between Mars and Jupiter, with Ceres as the
representative object, and the icy asteroids of the Kuiper belt,
which move in orbits beyond Neptune. Pluto is the highlighted
object in this group.
In addition to a correctly scaled rendering of the featured
object, each planet's station includes general information about
the object and a couple of photos. Most of the photos were taken by
spacecraft that were either orbiting the object or passing by at
close range.
Perhaps the most surprising thing to be learned from this scale
model is how very small the planets are compared to the distances
between them. Standard "family portraits" of the solar system that
depict the planets lined up virtually end-to-end do not convey a
true sense of how empty space really is. This emptiness is even
more profound for interstellar distances. On the scale of this
model, with the Earth about 15 meters from the Sun, the
next-closest star would be over 3000 kilometers away, in northern
One common misconception about the solar system is that the
planets are all laid out in a straight line from the Sun. In fact,
they all orbit the Sun at different rates, so a perfect linear
alignment almost never occurs. While this static model cannot
display the current locations of the planets in their orbits, it
does illustrate the scaled-down distance covered in one day by each
object as it travels around the Sun.
Please enjoy your tour!
Map of
At each
station you will find the following information:
We would like to thank the following
for making this project possible
Aaron and Ruth Martin, for their vision and support.
President Donald W. Cameron, for his continued support of the
Phi Theta Kappa Honor Society, especially past presidents Bill
Skislak and Ridwan Othman, and advisor Beverley Gass, for their
efforts to make this project a reality.
The Surveying Technology Program at GTCC, whose students helped
us pinpoint the locations for our stations.
The GTCC Foundation, especially Margot Horney, for their
assistance in all aspects of this project.
The Cline Observatory Advisory Committee, for guidance and
Cheryl Hemric, for converting our ideas for content into the
design of the displays in our stations.
Robert Meyer and his groundskeeping crew at GTCC, for installing
and maintaining the pavers and posts at each station,.
Margaret Reid of the Graphic Arts department at GTCC, for her
assistance in our early efforts to design our content.
Display text by David Herrick, GTCC astronomy Instructor.
Images courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech - Solar eclipse image by Aaron
"Keep Looking Up!"


text:
Nintendo 3DS
I'm convinced that every series now has "The ____ Cycle"
You're just mashing together different peoples' opinions. If that was the same person they'd probably be very dumb.
Intel i7 2600K -- Asus P8Z68-V Pro -- 8GB Corsair Vengeance -- SLI [EVGA GTX 580 + Zotac GTX 580] -- Corsair Hydro Series H100 -- Corsair Obsidian 650D
It's not a cycle, when a game comes out there are simply more people talking about it, both good and bad. Why people are under the illusion that there's a cycle is because the haters/complainers/trolls/people who simply didn't like the game move on to something else, fans of the game stick around and continue to praise it however.
Official Cherry Garcia of the IDF
Official Lion Tamer of the NDF
Hm, I like those last two posts, they make the most sense so far. I'll start looking at it that way then.
Her name is Koko, she is loco, I said oh no!
Official Something or Other of That One Group
Koi_Tenchi posted...
I honestly don't remember a single person using the term "rehash" to describe 3D Land.
Yes, they did. As they do with every Mario game in existence. New 2D Mario game? Rehash. New 3D Mario game? Rehash. New Mario Kart? New Mario Tennis? New Mario Party? New series? All rehash.
"Which is more evil: Kidnapping a child to use as a tool for world domination, or using your blood child as a tool for world domination?"-Tyranidomega
Lord_Frood posted...
I never bashed or praised either game in my opening post, I'm just befuddled as to why a game sucks one month and is near unanimously lauded as great the next.
I for one always lauded 3D land as great.
"Grab life by the horns and shake it till it moos "
Official electric boogaloo mint scoop with a cherry on top of the IDF
From: pikachupwnage | #015
Lord_Frood posted...I never bashed or praised either game in my opening post, I'm just befuddled as to why a game sucks one month and is near unanimously lauded as great the next.
This. It's just so fun <3
The Main Mario series has a tendency to be the best when it's current, but then looks a bit thin when in comparison to later games in the series.
Like Super Mario Brothers having simple mechanics yet challenging gameplay basically codified it as how platforming games should go, and it still holds itself in today's age...then came Mario Brothers 2 US which was alright with story you wouldn't have to read the manual for and introduced mechanics such as holding items to throw.
3 added a world map and staples like fortresses and such, which later extended into World which greatly increased exploration.
I'd consider the 3d games to be separate from the 2D games, mostly because the former is just simply more open ended whilst gathering Stars/shines/whatever though you have to admit that Mario Galaxy 2 felt a bit of a pseudo sequel but still felt pretty much the same, it doesn't help that there was as much story behind this one to the extent that one of their most beloved and recently introduced characters wasn't heard, yet alone seen at least until near the end? (Rosalina)
As for 3D land.....it felt a bit average; sure it uses more modern things like
RSN: Plucky9, Total: 2340
KoL: Plucky, currently a Accordion Thief
Lord_Frood posted...
I never bashed or praised either game in my opening post, I'm just befuddled as to why a game sucks one month and is near unanimously lauded as great the next.
Everyone that hated it came to the boards to complain at first.
Those who loved it were too busy playing.
Everyone who loved it finished in a month.
They praised it.
There ya go.
Warfriends: You must be lonely, unless you are a female; which in that case u are merely a figment of my imagination
check quote for XBL GT
Lord_Frood posted...
"Wah 3D Land sucks, rehash, outcry!"
See, now you understand why people get irritated.
Currently playing: Suikoden
Rainbow Dash is best pony. Fact.
>Tales game gets releaased
Boy, can't wait for that localization release date.
>A year or two goes by, sequel or enhanced port is announced
They sure can't deny us the game now.
>Game never gets localized
>Queue up next Tales game
PSN/XBL/Steam: mcnichoj
Proud Vita/3DS/Wii U owner.


text:
Bill Bray 2004-2005: 9.57 H/9 IP, 2.68 BB/9 IP, 10.53 K/9 IP, 0.96 HR/9 IPOriginally Posted by oregonred
Bill Bray 2006 (AAA): 7.39 H/9 IP, 2.56 BB/9 IP, 12.78 K/9 IP, 1.42 HR/9 IP
Small sample size, yes (78.2 IP). But the HR rates are unacceptable. He throws reasonably hard, but not exceptionally hard. If HR rates are high, I need to see a dominant fastball. I don't.
Ditto for the pitchers being acquired.Interesting, but factor in the following;
1) 60% of the 2006 production of Kearns/Lopez was already realized by the Reds.
Assume worst-case scenario and you're still left with a huge value gap.2) Factor out Kearns value after 2008 season. Factor out Lopez's value after the 2008 (and maybe 2007) seasons.
So you either deal them for more value this season (or offseason) or at the point in time when they're going to be truly expensive while still turning a Run value and dollar value win over what the Reds got. It's highly doubtful the Reds could possibly have received less at any point in time in the future through their walk year(s).3) 5% salary inflation -- maybe I don't get what you are saying... Felipe and Kearns salaries may triple from now until 2008 -- with end of service time benefits as MLB's idiotic salary escalation starts to really kick in for service years 5-6. Kearns will be a 4M guy in 2007 and 6-7M in 2008. Lopez a 4-5M guy in 2007 and a 6-8M guy in 2008. 2007 is the year they begin to be no longer underpaid to market. 2008 (maybe 2007 for Lopez) is when they begin to be overpaid to market -- I'd rather their first LTC albatross be given out by someone else. And safe to say Bowden (unless he gets canned before then) will be the one to give them that payday -- be afraid Nats fans be very afraid
Austin Kearns spent portions of 2002 and 2005 in the minors. We tend to forget that. He's been injured some, but none of it is related to an isolated issue. Freak stuff. Staph infection in his finger. Ray King sat on him. Unless we can project that kind of stuff to frequently pop up in the future, I see no reason that a 500 AB projection- at minimum- isn't reasonable. And another thing we tend to forget is that, until recently, when he's been healthy he's had to deal with an OF logjam that's robbed him of some number of PA.4) Kearns career high is 387 AB's, assuming him at 500AB for the duration is a major leap.
Other relievers acquired for less would be just as cheap and could project to be with the team as long. I'm seeing a lot of justification attempts based around this point and an erroneous assumption that money saved by trading Kearns and Lopez are "value-added" items. They're not.5) Bray is under Reds control until 2012, Maj until 2011. Dirt cheap until 2010.
No, I'm not being subjective. There are a couple things we must understand.Now you're getting subjective... Maj has been a career 3 ERA guy and sub .680 OPS pitcher across his 1.5 years of service. His career OPS is about 150 pts lower than Coffey's with a higher K/IP ratio in the bigs. Same age...
1. Majewski's DIPS ERA rate has been well over 1.00 for two years now. He's been ERA-lucky; mostly because he's also been BABIP-lucky.
2. Relief pitchers record ERA numbers that are around half a Run lower than Starting Pitchers. We need to adjust our views on good v. average v. bad accordingly. If a RP's ERA is 3.50 and that ERA matches his DIPS and his BABIP is average and his HR rate is good, he's still pretty near a 4.00 ERA. I suspect this has a lot to do with partial Inning usage patterns. Regardless, it's an item we have to look at.
When the trade went down, Majewski's DIPS rate was over 1.20 (120%+ of his ERA). Since then, Majewski's DIPS rate has gone down (1.06) because his ERA has risen (now at 3.97) while his DIPS rate hasn't changed. His BABIP luck is equalizing and his ERA is now a more true reflection of how he's actually pitched this year. Knowing that, we're able to get a clearer picture on exactly how close to average Majewski is this season. On the bright side, Majewski produces decent HR rates. But his low K/9 and higher BB/9 rates don't project him to get a whole lot better.
The outlook might be better had the Reds actually improved the team defense when acquiring him, but that would still be more about the defense than it would be about Majewski.
Exceptionally risky unless he projected a Billy Wagner-level fastball or somehow finds a way to keep the longball from being an issue.Bray -- Key man in the deal for the Reds (Hope the Reds scouts are right). Just turned 23, great minor numbers in K/9 and K/BB. Small sample size but the early returns look like he could be a gem. Lefty, under control until 2012. Very interesting.
If Krivsky had actually found near-lock level shutdown relievers, this one might be more palatable. But he didn't. He found slightly above average and a whole lotta' risk. I understand why folks are slathering that dish with ketchup right now, but I'd rather it taste good either with or without condiments.Maybe old vets demanding multi-year contracts. Or DFA fodder willing to do one year deals like what usually passes through Cincinnati. Low service time and productive relievers don't grow on trees -- and there aren't any at the upper levels of the Reds minor league system.
They need to become that just to get this deal to slightly below average. And I dislike the direction in it's entirety. It's a two dimensional move in a three dimensional world.This is one interesting trade and I like the overall direction -- the return is very debatable. Bray needs to become a stud setup man at minimum and Maj needs to keep being a Scott Sullivan rubber-arm for this to turn out well for the Reds.


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Tweener/hardcourt long balls, cure?
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I had the same problem as you. Lots of people here will say that you need more top spin -- but its more than that. It's also trajectory off the strings, swing speed, swing path, and timing. It's the whole enchilada, so to speak.
There are a few factors here at work:
1. Your racquet is generating a lot of power
2. YOU are generating a lot of power
3. Your strings are generating a lot of power
what this means is, you add all of those things together and you'll find that you cannot compensate for the tons of power with merely adding more top spin. You've got to do more than that.
I agree with SundayPunch, you might want to switch to poly. What you have to do is find ways of counterbalancing all the power that's in your arsenal. This can be done by low powered strings. Or, you can string regular syn gut very tight (60 lbs plus).
Secondly, you need to look at your swing speed -- until you master everything else, you've got to slow down your racquet head speed. You're generating too much pace.
Thirdly, you've got to attack the ball sooner. You should hit the ball when its in front of you, not when it eventually gets even with your body. The sooner you hit the ball (on the rise), the lower the trajectory the ball will take when it leaves your strings.
Lastly, as everyone else says: top spin. You should modify your swing path so you're going more low to high, as opposed to hitting through the ball. Really brush up on the ball so that you are applying enough spin to compensate for all the power you're generating.
For my part, I could have done all that I just suggested to you, when I was using powerful tweeners. But I took the easy path out, I sold them all and bought the lowest powered racquet I could find with the lowest powered strings so that I didn't have to modify my swing speed or top spin. Now 90% of my shots stay in, which is great for me.
good luck!
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The church is dedicated to St James and is one of a group of parishes, the Vicar living in Essendine. There was at one time a Methodist chapel in High Street, now a private house, served by visiting ministers from Stamford. Between the village and Clipsham is a Yew Tree Avenue maintained by the Forestry Commission, the trees cut into large topiary forms. There are two remaining pubs in the village - the Fox & Hounds and the Castle Inn. Others, such as the New Inn in station road, were converted to housing in the 1960s.
The village had a Castle Bytham railway station on the Midland and Great Northern Joint Railway, the remains of which can still be seen. This station was rather unusual, being a single platform in a cutting through the village. The station was not originally planned by the railway, but was added after considerable local lobbying. It remained open, as did the goods yard on the other side of the road, until the line closed in 1959. Outside the village the line of the railway now forms a road crossing under the A1
The village also has one remaining shop in Pinfold Road, but the post office was closed in 2008 despite local opposition. This post office had served a number of smaller villages nearby without such ameneties; these include Creeton, Swinstead, Swayfield, Little Bytham and Clipsham - it has now been replaced by a once-a-week 'outreach' service. As recently as the 1960s there were two forges and two other shops in the village, a TV repairer and another general store. The fish-and-chip shop at the top of Pinfold road had closed just before. The primary school was closed in the 1970s, and it's branch of the Public Library service was replaced by a mobile service.
Nearby is Little Bytham. The two villages used to be called West and East Bytham. To the west is South Witham near the source of the river Witham, on the other side of the A1. Between the Village and the A1 road the Lincolnshire Wildlife Trust maintains an important wildlife sanctuary at Tortiseshell wood and some of the road verges are protected for wildlife by the county council.
At one time the village was an important commercial centre for the surrounding agricultural communities, but is now largely a dormitory although a number of larger local farming families remain with a much reduced workforce.
The nearest town is Stamford, even though it is in the Grantham postal area, with a Nottingham post code.


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GRESHAM, Ore. Police found a man dead from an apparent gunshot wound in a vehicle Saturday night in Gresham, police said.
Around 4:30 p.m., officers checked on the man who appeared to be passed out in the vehicle in a parking lot in the 17300 of Northeast Couch Street.
Police found 31-year-old Jeffery Pope of Gresham dead in the vehicle from a gunshot wound. More police were call to the scene but no one was arrested.
Anyone with information was asked to call Gresham police at 503-618-2719.


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A proposed constitutional amendment to abridge the freedom of speech received the endorsement of the Senate Judiciary Committee by a 10-8 vote Thursday.
A trio of Republican senators sent a letter to the EPA administrator asking her to withdraw the new wage garnishment rule.
The NSA warrantless surveillance program nominally geared at spying on foreigners has also spied on innocent Americans without a warrant, including a Republican Party operative, a civil rights activist and several university professors. The revelations by investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald raise the possibility that NSA warrantless surveillance has been used for political — rather than security — purposes.
The Washington Post reported July 5 that 400,000 or more innocent Americans have their e-mail and text messages read by the NSA every year without the constitutionally-required warrant and probable cause. Those Americans were caught up in a nexus of surveillance where the NSA collects data on people who have some innocent connection with a foreign target of surveillance.
A Wisconsin company is being sued by the federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission over the company's requirement that its employees speak English on the job.


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- Financial Information and Services
CCNY Class of 1964 Gives Record $3 Million Class Gift
The City College of New York Class of 1964 has raised $3 million for its 50th anniversary reunion class gift. This is the largest class gift in City College history, according to the City College Fund, which organizes the College's class reunions.Read More »
Colin Powell School Marks Psychology Dept.'s 75th Anniversary
On Thursday, June 5, the Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership at The City College of New York will cap a year of events celebrating the 75th anniversary of its Psychology Department. "The Social World and the Meaning of the Message: A 75th Anniversary Celebration of the Psychology Department of the Colin Powell School," a half-day symposium, examines the evolution of social messaging and the role it plays in social justice, politics and our understanding of ourselves.Read More »
CCNY Alumni Present Service Awards June 12
Christian Volkmann, associate professor in The Bernard and Anne Spitzer School of Architecture, will receive the Faculty Service Award from the Alumni Association of The City College of New York. The Association's Administrative Staff Service Award will go to Yana Joseph, administrative manager in City College's Division of Humanities and the Arts.Read More »
City College Offering 200+ Summer Courses in 35 Disciplines
The City College of New York is offering more than 200 classes in 35 disciplines this summer. Courses are offered over two four-week sessions that run June 2 – June 26 and June 30 – July 24 as well as an extended session running from June 2 – July 22.Read More »
Rajan Menon Named Carnegie Council Global Ethics Scholar
Rajan Menon, who holds the Anne and Bernard Spitzer Chair in Political Science at The City College of New York's Colin Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, has been appointed a Global Ethics Fellow by the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs.Read More »
Reinvent Infrastructure Systems: Professor Hillary Brown
America's aging infrastructure systems not only need replacement, they need to be reinvented, argues City College of New York Professor of Architecture Hillary Brown in "Next Generation Infrastructure: Principles for Post-Industrial Public Works." Washington-based Island Press released the book earlier this month.Read More »
New Courses at City College in Bengali Gain Popularity
Bengali is spoken by more than a quarter billion people mainly in Bangladesh and the West Bengal region of India. At The City College of New York, not only is it the fourth most popular native language among students – behind English, Spanish and Chinese – but; undergraduates can now take a year of Bengali to fulfill their language requirement.Read More »


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From Barnes & Noble
To outsiders, Effie Gray (1828-1897) seemed to have the perfect match. Though still a teenager, this beautiful young socialite had married John Ruskin (1819-1900), the foremost art critic of his age. The marriage, however, turned into an ill-conceived charade that lasted only six years, ending in annulment. Only a short time later, Gray, still a virgin, married Ruskin's protégé, painter John Everett Millais (1829-1896). This curious Victorian triangulation has inspired numerous biographies and the upcoming, June release film Effie, which stars Dakota Fanning and Emma Thompson. This biography (which is not an official film tie-in) recounts the conjunction of three fascinating people. Now in trade paperback and NOOK Book. Editor's recommendation.


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Trabalhando.comTwitter Statistics
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Leave a Review
Takes a little time, but very good. I need to add milk to crepe batter until it was runny enough to spread correctly. Also, I added smoked gouda cheese inside of the crepe when I assembled. I didnt bother with the topping because I didnt want to wash the blender. Served the crepe with a nice salad and it was great!
I thought this was fantastic, as did my guests. I only had time to prepare the chicken ahead of time but depite that this recipe wasn't nearly as time-consuming or labor-intensive as some of the reviews make it sound. My changes were as follows: I used two boneless skinless chicken breasts and definitely ended up with more than two cups of chicken so my crepes were a little hearty. I left out the sherry since I didn't have any medium-dry on hand. I also prepared the asparagus in the way I most prefer it: I steamed it in the microwave in about 2 tbsp of water. I don't like how quickly it can get mushy in a pot/pan and I've got microwaving it down pat, so that's what I did. The crepes were beautiful and didn't feel as heavy as they are. The recipe seems to lend itself to interpretation rather well, so I intend to make these again with more vegetables and less fat.
This recipe is fabulous. It does take some work but it is well worth it! I didn't find asparagus so I replaced with mushrooms, I also added a bit f chopped green peppers (because I love the taste) and omitted the sherry and it came out delicious!
Somewhat time consuming, but I made everythng but the crepes a day ahead. Everyone asked for seconds, and there wasn't a bit left. Great during the colder months.
Very tasty, great for a casual dinner or even brunch. It wasn't asparagus time in my region, so I left out the asparagus and tripled the mushrooms, which was nice for cold weather. I would prefer a more traditional crepe batter which rests before cooking. This batter was a little tough.
Great make-ahead and use-up-leftovers dish! I had leftover veloute, chicken, and crepes (all great out of the freezer). Loved that the asparagus kept its crunch. Given previous reviews, I was careful not to make things too saucy. I did have a little trouble with the topping, which didn't come together as described. After 10 min in the oven, I scooped it back on top of the crepes so that it would brown a bit.
Some find this bland. So...use 1/2 milk, 1/2 white wine and add some finely chopped onion (or green ones) and 1 tbsp. chopped tarragon- of course the best thing of all GARLIC. Will be fantastic then.
Interesting... Everyone either loved it or hated it. I found it to be a waste of ingredients and time. For so much work, I expected something less bland. However, I do like the idea of incorporating crepes and a saucy filling.
I love this recipe. However, I made it twice - once with sherry, once without, and I have to say I like the one without better. The sherry overpowers the simple richness of the sauce. It's tasty either way though.
Takes a long time to make, but the effort is worth it. Next time I will try to add a little more flavoring to the filling and go a little lighter on the sauce both inside and out.


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Joined up thinking on sustainability, business and the built environment: sustain' brings together expert knowledge on the social, economic, environmental issues that matter to ensure our urban areas, communities and businesses are resilient, desirable and competitive.
Editor's Choice
- Update on Sustain Magazine From August 2014, the Sustain website will no longer be updated. Sustain's housing related coverage will be incorporated into Inside Housing magazine. Sustain readers can find sustainability news, features and comment at www.insidehousing.co.uk, and can sign up to receive a weekly sustainability email newsletter by completing the form at http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/sign-in/register-now. Sustain has been
- Building to exclude: from 'poor doors' to anti-homeless spikes A modest door caused controversy this week. A planned New York housing development came under fire after Gawker reported planning permission had been granted for the tower to have two separate entrances for residents: one for residents of the luxury flats that comprise most of the buildings, and another entrance, tucked from view in an
- What do you love about where you live? Steve Chambers is an urban planner and PhD candidate at The Bartlett School of Planning, UCL. He specialises in neighbourhood governance and runs the London Community Governance blog. One Sunday in July I stood in a small park in a Central London and asked people to pin cards to a tree, telling me what they


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iRig Mic Field is a pocket-size stereo microphone designed for audio and video field-recording applications. Thanks to its exclusive rotating enclosure, the IK Multimedia iRig Mic Field doubles as the perfect stereo mic for professional audio and video applications. Now it's possible to preserve accurate left/right stereo imaging for high-quality audio recordings during video shoots.
iRig Mic Field connects digitally through the Lightning port of an iPhone, iPod touch or iPad, giving far superior results than the built-in mono mic on the device. It features two high-quality capsules, in an XY stereo configuration, and a 24-bit A/D converter to ensure the best possible quality. A built-in headphone jack allows for real-time monitoring.
iRig MIC Field works with several IK companion apps including iRig Recorder 2 and many other iOS compatible Core Audio audio and video apps (including GarageBand, Voice Memo, iMovie, etc..).
IK Multimedia iRig Mic Field Stereo iOS Microphone Features


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by April 21, 2015
As a trend watcher in the IT space I have noticed a consistent drumbeat over the last few years. CIOs and their interest in analytics and business intelligence has been consistent if not increasing. This makes perfect sense as companies realize they need to leverage both internal and external data...read more
by April 6, 2015
When we strip away the glamor, the surveys we create and administer are nothing more than data collection platforms. Novice researchers may focus on basic question types, but as we expand our skills the more astute researcher realizes there are many ways to capture data through the questions asked....read more
by March 30, 2015
It is an alchemist's blend of art and science when it comes to qualitative marketing research. The analysis of open-ended questions found on most surveys is indeed a qualitative endeavor. At its core this is an iterative process, even with the use of text analytics tools such as OdinText. Where do...read more
by March 18, 2015
Ever get tired of eating leftovers for three days in a row? Well, just like leftover fatigue, your customers can also get survey fatigue. With so many companies sending out surveys looking for feedback on a product that was just purchased or a service that was just completed, companies need to find...read more
by February 18, 2015
We've talked before about how important it is to understand the generational gaps in the workforce because what keeps Generation X engaged, doesn't necessarily keep Millennials (born between 1980 and 2000) engaged. And the same thing holds true when it comes to the customer experience. Millennials...read more
by February 13, 2015
The old school for ad testing involved bringing large numbers of people of various demographics together and showing them ads embedded in pilot television show. This was coupled with two surveys, a pre-exposure survey and a post-test assessment following the programming and ad exposure. Enter the...read more
by November 13, 2014
With Thanksgiving right around the corner, we have a lot to be thankful for. In the world of feedback, it might seem like we couldn't be thankful for anything more than feedback itself. Well, even though getting feedback is great, it's all about how we collect it, what we do with it and how we...read more
by October 30, 2014
Filthy rooms, paint peeling from the walls, inedible food in the dirty restaurant, and an overall lack of accountability from leadership and staff. These are just a few of the wonderful surprises in store for world renowned chef Gordon Ramsay on his hit series, "Hotel Hell." In it, Chef Ramsay...read more
by October 8, 2014
Pete Townshend once sang about goin' mobile. Now marketers and researchers are singing the same tune. The trend toward all things mobile continues unabated. This is one of those trends I certainly agree with, but as researchers we need to approach it with respect and understanding. It is not a trend...read more
by September 26, 2014
If you're looking to build a survey to collect feedback, you might find yourself searching phrases online such as 'free survey creation,' 'free survey tools' or something along those lines. And guaranteed, numerous options will appear in your search results. With so many free survey tools at your...read more


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Emami, maker of personal and healthcare products, plans to launch about 7-8 brands during 2014-15 in a bid to return to 16-17% topline growth rate.
"We would come up with new brands and extensions also, which would start flowing from the next one or two months. We would be very aggressive on new launches, at least 7-8 products," director Mohan Goenka said.
"Our target this year is simple -- to get back to 16-17% topline gowth and we are fully focusing on that. A lot of initiatives like growing in rural areas and raising of dealers margins are being taken," Goenka told analysts today.
"With the launch of the face-washes, we are going to ride on the brand strengths of Boroplus and Fair and Handsome, each having large consumer bases," Goenka said.
The recent launches would help Emami raise its full-year topline by at least 4% in the current year. Its recent launches have been vitality offering Zandu Vigorex, face-washes under Boroplus and Fair and Handsome brands and '7 in 1' hair oil with actor Yami Gautam as brand ambassador.
A general slowdown in the consumer spending has hit Emami during whole of FY14 with topline or net sales growing at just 7.2% at Rs 1821 crore with fourth quarter sales at Rs 446 crore even declining marginally by 1.2%.
"Unfavourable season and moderation in growth in FMCG sector continues to impact all our categories while erratic winter and delayed summer impacted seasonal brands leading to decline in revenues in the March quarter. However we continue to successfully strengthen our market share," Goenka said.
Product categories like cooling oil. talcum powder, balm, and male fairness cream, Fair and Handsome, degrew in the fourth quarter pulling down the overall revenues, Goenka said.
Amid tepid sales, the healthcare range under the Zandu portfolio, stood apart with a 52% sales growth during the fourth quarter following gradual shift of consumers towards natural wellness products.
With just one month into FY15, Goenka said the year has started with a positive note with summer being particularly harsh indicating higher sales of summer brands.
"There are positive signs about strong summer and numbers would be encouraging if the trend continues," Goenka said.
In a bid to ensure higher RoI (return on investments), Emami has implemented customised software at the dealers' end as part of an outreach campaign.
"We have taken major steps to improve profitability of dealers by cutting down distributors' stocks from an average 27 days to 17 days, and plans to bring it further to 10-11 days. The idea is that we don't want dealers to carry dead stocks like winter products in summer."


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Thüster Berg Mostly sport climbing609 routes in crag
- 72% Sport 26% Trad .8%Unknown
- Grades: UIAA
- Ascents: 99
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