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Sunday, November 30th, 2014
Overselling America's Infrastructure Crisis
60 Minutes ran a segment last week called "Falling Apart" that was another alarmist take on the state of American infrastructure. I'll embed here but if it doesn't display for you, click to CBS News to watch (autoplay link).
We've seen this story before. America's infrastructure is falling apart and we need to spend many billions on upgrades, but politicians won't agree because they are too craven.
There's some truth to this point of view. The problem is that it's oversold using the worst examples. It also gives short shrift to the many infrastructure upgrades that we have been making. And it ignores how people and businesses make capital purchase decisions in the real world.
First, I'm not surprised to see that 60 Minutes spent a lot of time in Pennsylvania. In my experience, Pennsylvania is in a class by itself when it comes to infrastructure. Drive something like I-70 from Washington to the Ohio state line and prepare to be appalled. Pittsburgh legitimately has a massive infrastructure maintenance overhang. Philly too. And much of the infrastructure there was under built to begin with. The Schuylkill Expressway goes down to two lanes each way, for example. Similarly, 60 Minutes is right about some of the obsolete bridges on Amtrak's Northeast Corridor. They may have easily included other high profile embarrassments like LaGuardia Airport or Penn Station. Or they might have taken a look at state of decay of Rhode Island's bridges.
There are clearly some high profile legacy items that need to be addressed. But that neglects the other side of the coin, namely that there's a ton of major infrastructure that has been upgraded.
60 Minutes includes some footage of Chicago. Clearly there's a need for bigtime investment there. But in the last 20 years or so IDOT reconstructed completely many of the major freeways in the area like the Kennedy and Dan Ryan. The Tollway Authority widened virtually the entire system and implemented open road tolling, vastly reducing congestion. Similarly the CTA opened the brand new Orange Line, did major work to renovate the Green and Pink Lines, just did major infrastructure upgrades on the south branch of the Red Line, and expanded capacity on the Ravenswood. They've also gone from tokens and cash to electronic fare collection. At least one new commuter rail line was opened (the North Central line). The O'Hare Modernization program is underway with new runways already online and a significant reduction in congestion there. A new terminal was also built and the existing terminals given some refreshes.
Is there a lot to do in Chicago? Undoubtedly. But let's give credit for what has already been done.
It's the same elsewhere. Nicole Gelinas notes that New York has invested $123 billion in the transit system in the last 30 years. That's not chump change. The third water tunnel is now online there as well. Indianapolis built an ultra-modern airport terminal complex that's up to international standards. Many other airports like DTW, SJC, SFO, etc. have built major new terminals or seriously upgraded their acts. There have actually been a lot of investments in port infrastructure to get ready for post-Panamax ships.
I'm told even Pennsylvania has done a good job of starting to address its infrastructure problems. The Philadelphia airport is actually quite nice these days, for example.
So we've actually done a lot already that 60 Minutes doesn't give us credit for.
But what's more, the presence of infrastructure that's at or near the end of its useful life isn't necessarily a bad thing anyway. Would it make sense for every single car on the road to be brand new? Of course not. Most cars ultimately end up getting driven till the wheels fall off. And that makes perfect sense. Why would you junk an asset that still has lots of service life left? We reallocate ownership of a lot of those cars during their lifespan, but we try to get the max out of their useful life.
It's similar in our homes. How many of us replace a furnace at the first sign of rust? Yes, sometimes we do a complete upgrade or refresh of a kitchen or bathroom, but most of the time we don't replace major household systems like furnaces or roofs until they appear to be at a point where paying for repairs when they break appears to be futile in light of the asset age. It makes sense to pay $400 to replace a starter that fails when the car has 125,000 miles. It's more questionable when the transmission goes out at 175.
The fact that some issues or incidents with infrastructure can cause temporary closure or disruption is exactly how most personal capital assets work. A part goes out on our car. It needs to be towed and fixed. And it's out of commission during that period. That's annoying, disruptive, and costly. But does it mean that we should all go out and buy a brand new car? I don't think so. And that's certainly not how people behave in the real world. Obviously you have to build in a margin of safety on items like bridges where a failure would be catastrophic, but the same general principle applies. We shouldn't wait for them to fail before replacement, but we do and should get the full useful life out of them.
Why would we expect our government to spend our money on its capital assets in a manner differently from how we spend our money on our own personal possessions? This explains why the public is much more skeptical of spending on infrastructure than the infrastructure lobby would like. It's to be expected that some percentage of our infrastructure will perpetually be at or near end of life, as that's the nature of the capital asset life cycle.
What's more, when we replace a furnace or car, most of us don't go out and buy Cadillacs. We buy something that fits the budget. Unfortunately, this mindset doesn't seem to penetrate the public sector, where a significant amount of infrastructure is gold plated and priced at a level far out of line with international comparisons. The big problem in New York isn't a lack of investment in transit. It's the fact that the region has just about the highest transit capital costs in the world. Wonder why Madrid and Calgary have nice train systems? Among other reasons, they were very cost-efficient in their design and construction. Rather than more money, maybe we should first try some reform in our broken system of building stuff that results in lengthy project timelines and out of control costs.
So there are some things that need to be taken care of and we need to do that. But scaremongering about dangerous bridges isn't the right answer. And where I see the biggest infrastructure needs are on local streets and bridges, where federal and state dollars are least likely to be applicable. It's no surprise to me that most of the pothole ridden, bombed out streets we drive on are local city streets, where they are the maintenance responsibility of an entity that lacks the large, dedicated infrastructure revenue streams available to the state and federal governments. But that's a topic I'll have to explore in a future post.
Thursday, November 20th, 2014
Lessons On Spending Responsibly
My latest column is now available in the November issue of Governing magazine. It's called "Lessons from Kokomo on How to Spend Responsibly" and takes another look, obviously, at Kokomo. But my focus here is the intersection of fiscal responsibility and investment. I highlight not just Kokomo, where getting a handle on the budget enabled investment, but also Los Angeles, where losing control of it has resulted in serious infrastructure problems. Here's an excerpt:
Kokomo can spend money on these items because it took care of fiscal business. Not all debt is bad, but in this case, by mostly resisting the urge to borrow, Kokomo will retain the ability to invest well into the future by not encumbering future cash flow. As a small industrial city, Kokomo still has challenges to be sure, but it appears to be on the right track.
Other cities are in different stages of this process. Consider Los Angeles, which is also making national news, this time for its crumbling infrastructure. The New York Times reported that it faces more than $8 billion in needed repairs just to bring its worst roads, sidewalks and water lines up to par.
Why can't Los Angeles afford to invest in infrastructure? Because it allowed its budget to get out of control. Some blame this on the city's fear of raising taxes, but L.A. is hardly a low-tax haven. Instead, as a report issued earlier by City Administrative Officer Miguel Santana notes, while revenues are anticipated to grow 4.4 percent — faster than national GDP — expenditures have been growing at an even faster rate.
Read the whole thing.
Sunday, November 2nd, 2014
The Urbanophile Interview: Portland Mayor Charlie Hales
I was out in Portland, Oregon last week and while there I sat down for an interview with Mayor Charlie Hales. We talked about the real Portland vs. the idea of Portland, the city's industrial base, retrofitting suburban infrastructure, and a lot more. If the audio doesn't display for you, click over to Soundcloud.
Mayor Charlie Hales. Image via Wikipedia
Here are some edited highlights of our conversation. For those who prefer reading to listening, a complete transcript is available.
Mayor Hales rejects the idea that we will have to strategically abandon infrastructure because the finances don't add up:
My point here is that this is about political will. It is not inevitable or immutable that America is going watch its infrastructure decline. It's a choice. It's a bad choice to dither and do nothing. And it's a good choice to step up and do something. And I think you'll see more cities doing what we're doing here in Portland. Which is to say, we're going act locally, and then keep the pressure on Congress and the State House to do their part too.
Regarding how hard it really is to find a job in Portland:
Not hard. In fact, I think it's 4.8% – the unemployment rate – among 25-34 year olds here – lower than New York, lower than a lot of places. We're the 3rd greatest city in terms of college educated immigrants moving here deliberately. They move here, and then not long after, they find work. Or they create work by starting their own business because we're a very entrepreneurial city as well. I did this in 1979. It's not an original thing for Portland. In fact you could say it's been happening since Lewis and Clark that we – that people immigrated here from elsewhere because they saw some opportunity here. We've been absorbing those people as they come to Portland. They find work. But that's the value set of that 25-34 year old cohort. They care about quality of place, quality of life, and what they're going do when they're not working. And that doesn't include, say, sitting in traffic in suburbia. So they like the idea of living in Portland, and they come here and try to make it work. And most of them do. Again, we have a better employment situation for those folks than New York City does. So it's not true that young people come here and are stuck in jobs that they're way over qualified for indefinitely.
About how the real Portland differs from the idea of Portland people have from the media:
Like all good caricatures, Portlandia makes fun of some things about us that are true. I mean, we do love localism, so Colin the Chicken is somebody that we would care about here in Portland. And we are relentlessly earnest about our values.
There some other ways that we don't. We're still an industrial city. We're a big hands, port industrial city. We build boxcars and barges. We just cut the ribbon on the biggest dry dock in North America last weekend. So we employ a lot of welders and steel fitters and plumbers and pipe fitters, and all those hands-on trades. We build trucks here. We build boxcars. We make steel pipe. There's a lot of traditional "old economy" industry here.
Another part of Portland that doesn't show up in the caricature is…the other half of the neighborhoods that were half-baked suburbia when they got annexed into the city. And we're trying to make them complete communities with a local economy in that neighborhood and those kind of services that you can walk to. And, oh yeah, in many cases, there aren't even sidewalks, and there's no neighborhood park. So, we're spending a lot of effort and money on trying to retrofit those suburban parts of Portland, to not be physically identical to the old neighborhoods, but have those ingredients of a complete neighborhood that Portlanders like to see.
Friday, August 29th, 2014
Cutting To Invest In Kokomo, Indiana
A whimsical fairy tale convenience store in Kokomo, Indiana
Bruce Katz at the Brookings Institution likes to talk about a paradigm called "cut to invest." The idea is to cut spending on operations and lower priority items in order finance investments in higher priority infrastructure or other projects. Nice theory, but who is actually doing it?
One example is Kokomo, Indiana. It's not the mythical tropical island paradise you may have heard about from the Beach Boys. Instead it's a small industrial city of around 57,000 people about 45 miles north of Indianapolis. After I posted a piece from Eric McAfee about Kokomo's intelligent rail trail design, someone from the city reached out and invited me to come for a visit. So that's what I did this week.
What I discovered is that Kokomo has done a lot more than just build a trail. They've deconverted every one way street downtown back to two way, removed every stop light and parking meter in the core of downtown, are building a mixed use downtown parking garage with a new YMCA across the street, inaugurated transit service with a free bus circulator, have a pretty extensive program of pedestrian friendly street treatments like bumpouts, as well as landscaping and beautification, a new baseball stadium under construction, a few apartment developments in the works, and even a more urban feel to its public housing. Like Eric, however, I wasn't just struck by the projects themselves, but they obvious attention to detail that went into their design. And especially by the fact that they've done it almost all by paying cash – no debt – in a city that went through an economic wringer during the recession.
A lot, though not all, of this has been pushed by Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight, who's gone from factory worker to politician during his career. He also appears to be an urban planning geek, as the stack of books behind his desk shows.
I sat down with the mayor and chatted about how the city pulled off this program of investment. After the jump I'll visually walk you through a number of the projects. If the audio player doesn't display for you, click over to Soundcloud.
Now let's take a look at what's going on. I mentioned the pedestrian bumpouts. Here's an example of one:
Pretty much every downtown intersection has a treatment like this, including landscaping. Taking a page from other cities' playbook, Kokomo has invested in beautification, including not only landscaping of pedestrian bumpouts, but also hanging flower planters we'll see later. These were actually put into place by Goodnight's predecessor and were a huge source of controversy at the time, though seem to be well-accepted by now.
Here's another example on a street heading out of downtown.
I'm actually of two minds about bumpouts. They do facilitate pedestrian crossings, but also can force bicyclists out of the curb lane into traffic. I've generally found them obnoxious when bicycling. The street widths through the bumpouts look ok here, but I didn't put it to the test. A number of streets have painted bicycle lanes, where this is definitely not a problem.
Eric's blog post was about the Industrial Heritage Trail. Here's a shot of that through downtown:
I think this is really attractive. It reminds me of a red brick version of the Indy Cultural Trail. This section actually has a separate sidewalk from the biking trail, but that's not the norm. Kokomo has really made a point to include some ped-bike protection wherever possible. So the landscape buffer is narrow, but effective and attractive. (It doesn't use bioswale type green stormwater detention like the Indy Cultural Trail, though). There's also ample street lighting and street furnishings.
As one nice touch, note the back side of the stop sign. It's black to match the color of the other items, not just plain galvanized steel. This treatment is done throughout downtown and adds a bit of refinement.
Here's another shot of a segment a bit south. Note the bespoke bike rack.
There aren't people in these photos, you might have noticed. I was doing this walking tour on a Tuesday morning, and it wasn't super-crowded but I did see multiple people out biking and walking on these trails.
On the south side of downtown, the IHT crosses and east-west path called the "Walk of Excellence." I love the name because reminding Hoosiers that a focus on excellence is an absolute must to survive the brutal global competition. Here's a shot:
Again, very attractive. And again, a narrow but nice buffer between the trail and the street, even though the roadway is little more than an alley or driveway. This is very consistently done, in another place even where the trail just passes through a parking lot. That's what I mean by attention to detail. There's a stream running to the left of the trail which adds to the pleasant effect of walking along it.
Here's a street crossing:
The trail has its own traffic control signs, as well as a street sign near bicycling eye level to tell users what street they are at. In my experience, that's too rare in trail design. You can also see bumpouts here along with large concrete planters that add beauty and make the crosswalk and street narrowing very visible to drivers.
Here's another crossing example, showing the different crosswalk shading as well:
Here's a bike route sign, with the city seal on it. That's another nice touch and one that shows a certain pride of place versus a generic sign.
Moving on, here's a median treatment on a major street. This goes on quite a distance:
Not only is this very nice, including more flowers, decorative street lights, etc, but the metal railings are especially unique. The railings were actually custom fabricated by the high school's shop class. Not only was this great real world practice for the students, but the city paid for the railings and the students are all ending up with $1,000 scholarships to college out of it. I'm told this was the superintendent's idea. (Kokomo's superintendent grew up in Corydon in my county and his wife actually still works part time in Laconia, the tiny town where I grew up!)
Eric mentioned the school district's International Baccalaureate program. But I don't believe he mentioned that they also run an exchange student program. IIRC, students from 15 countries attend high school in Kokomo, and a number of them are actually housed in dormitories in downtown Kokomo. This injects life into downtown and creates a more international flavor in the city. I didn't take pictures, but the school district is also renovating a 1914 vintage auditorium back to its original design that will be very cool (and also paid for without recourse to debt).
Trails and bumpouts have a fairly limited cost, but the city is also doing some bigger ticket items including two recently-constructed fire stations, a million dollar renovation of city hall, a parking garage, and a baseball stadium. Pictures of those in a moment but it's worth ask how the city was able to pay for them without debt.
The first is that there was no legacy debt. I'm not anti-debt in all cases, but if a mature city like Kokomo is saddled with heavy debt repayments, that's not good. By not having any legacy debt, the city's tax base isn't encumbered by repayments. A good part of our federal deficit these days is simply interest on our gargantuan debt load. That's a dynamic Kokomo avoided. (The city does have some utility debt, but it's revenue bond type stuff).
Secondly, the mayor says that he was able to reduce the city's workforce by close to 20%, going from 521 employees just before he took office to only 415 today. That's a significant reduction, especially given the fact that during that time the city annexed seven square miles and added 11,000 new residents (though some of them were already receiving some city services). Some of this was achieved through efficiencies. For example, the city went to single side garbage pickup, where all garbage is collected on one side of the street, eliminating the need for trucks to traverse each street twice. The mayor, council members, and department heads have also had a pay freeze during that time, with at least some time in there in which all city employees had their pay frozen during the recession. Keep in mind, the city experienced a severe revenue crunch during the auto bankruptcies, and Chrysler, the town's largest employer, failed to pay its tax bill. This created an urgent need for cuts.
It's possible the cuts and freezes have gone too far. I don't know the full history of what has happened to services. But I speculate that having something like this can potentially act like a forest fire. It allows for longer term, healthier growth, whereas continuous growth in employees and compensation over time leads to serious fiscal problems.
In any case, these reductions freed up cash flow as the city recovered, letting Kokomo allocate a decent chunk of its revenues to capital investment. This is running at about 5% of the overall budget, plus an additional sizable sum (for a city of that size) from an economic development tax. This is an example of the cut to invest strategy in action. Without the cuts and tight budget management, there would be no money to invest. Indeed, some other Indiana community have found themselves asking questions like "what fire station should we close?" as they feel the sting of decline and tax caps.
Here are a few more photos, then some additional observations. Here's that parking garage I mentioned. (This was originally debt financed, but the city paid off the bonds early when it decided to borrow for the baseball stadium).
This supposedly has some all day free parking, designed to attract downtown employees. There's also going to be apartments on the top floor. It looks like there's no ground floor retail, however, which will create a bit of a dead zone.
Here's the YMCA construction site across the street. You can see the old Y in the background:
A painted railroad viaduct on Sycamore St. heading into downtown:
An alley treatment:
The baseball stadium under construction:
Here's a picture of an older style public housing building. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's done in a traditional duplex style reminiscent of early suburbia.
Here's a new development in a more urban form next door:
I think the fenestration is poor which gives the design a public housing look. Nevertheless, I appreciate that the city is even thinking about the design of public housing downtown as part of its strategy. After all, why shouldn't public housing residents get to take advantage of high quality urbanism downtown like everyone else?
Overall, I think they've done a number of good things, and I especially appreciate the attention to detail that went into them. You clearly get the feel of them walking downtown streets. I would say the commercial and residential development lags the infrastructure, however. That's to be expected. They do have an Irish Pub, a coffee shop, a few restaurants, and other assorted downtown type of businesses. This will be an area to watch as some of these investments mature.
When I talked to the mayor about this he took the long view, saying that Columbus, Indiana has been at its architecture program for decades, that Indy's sports strategy is 40 years old, etc. Substantive change takes time. For example, Mayor Goodnight says it isn't realistic to think that older workers who commute in to Kokomo will uproot themselves out of their established lives in other communities and relocate. But he's more hopeful that as workers retire and are replaced, he'll capture the "next generation" labor force.
That's obviously a more realistic ambition. But will an impatient public buy it? We'll see. Clearly Goodnight has his critics. More than one of them has dubbed him the "King of Kokomo." A newspaper article fretted about gentrification (level of realistic concern about that: zero). I didn't do a deep dive into the other side, so keep that in mind reading this. But the baseball stadium would appear to be the most controversial item as near as I detect.
Regardless of any controversy, when you look at the downward trajectory of most small Indiana industrial cities, the status quo is not viable option. Kokomo deserves a lot credit for trying something different. And regardless of any development payoffs, things like trails and safer and more welcoming streets are already paying a quality of life dividend to the people who live there right now. It's an improvement anyone can experience today just by walking around.
Wednesday, July 16th, 2014
Paul Romer: Urbanization as Opportunity
NYU Economist Paul Romer gave a great talk at last month's New Cities conference in Dallas. Called "Urbanization as Opportunity," it's now online and I'll embed below. The first 2-3 minutes are warm up then it really gets going. Great stuff around crime, public space, etc. If the embed doesn't display for you, watch on You Tube.
There are large number of additional New Cities videos online should you wish to browse them.
Sunday, July 13th, 2014
Starter Ideas For Improving Rhode Island's Economic Competitiveness
This is the third and last part in my series on Rhode Island. You can go back and read part one and part two if you missed them.
Justin Katz, writing at a web site called the Ocean State Current that appears to be published by a libertarian think tank in the state, is unhappy with my proposals. In fact, he's giving a point by point rebuttal to my six part toolkit, which you can read here, here, here, here, here and here. I think it's fair to say he thinks Rhode Island needs much more radical change than I prescribe, and can't rely on a gradual approach among many other complaints.
Right or wrong, here is my thesis. A free market agenda along the lines of a Tennessee or Texas is dead on a arrival in Rhode Island. It's simply not possible to pass. Among other reasons, this is because the people of Rhode Island by and large have some degree of progressive orientation. That's very different from say Indiana, where every other person you meet on the street has Tea Party sympathies, and it takes a lot of policy possibilities off the table. I also believe that most progressives in Rhode Island genuinely want to see a better economy in the state. Hence my pitch is aimed at providing analysis and policy recommendations that might have a chance at appealing to the Rhode Island electorate, and thus have some hope of getting implemented or affecting how people think about the issues. If Katz & Co. prefer a different approach, I'm all in favor of the marketplace of ideas.
By the way, even if you go on Atkins or some other rapid change program of weight loss and are successful, the weight seldom stays off as we know. Slow and steady changes in lifestyle are the best way for sustainable change.
Today I want to give a starter set of policy ideas for changing the trajectory in Rhode Island. I won't claim these are a panacea or represent a comprehensive to do list, but you have to start somewhere. This is an expanded list from my City Journal piece.
Taxes and Fees
1. Seek a "grand bargain" on revenue neutral tax reform. Here the idea is not necessarily to reduce tax revenue overall, but to adjust the levers to make the system less onerous on entrepreneurship and small business. One conceptual idea – and I stress this is a hypothetical – might be to raise the income tax on top earners making over say $500K/yr (a shibboleth of the left) to eliminate the 7% sales tax businesses pay on utility bills. I'll be returning to the matter of utilities again as it's an important issue.
2. Repeal the $500 minimum corporation tax. Rhode Island shouldn't add insult to injury by making a business that loses money pay a tax on top of it just for the privilege of existing. I know at least one person who killed off a side business just for this reason. To be sure it was a hobby, but hobbies sometimes germinate into actual full time businesses.
3. Waive permit and other fees for the first year for new businesses. So many startup businesses don't even last a year. Why not wait until we see until there's at least baseline viability before socking them with a bunch of fees? You could easily implement this by charging in arrears. Obviously you'd have to be careful to avoid burdening the system with people getting "just in case" permits such as creating tons of shell companies, but I think this can be managed.
4. Reform unemployment insurance. Benefits are too high and ideally Rhode Island should be closer to the national median. But this would be hard to achieve and a start at reform can be achieved without it. The focus here would be eliminating market-distorting cross-subsidies that favor frequent users of the system, and revisiting business successor rules that punish people for buying and saving failing or bankrupt businesses.
Regulations and Mandates
5. Reform temporary disability insurance (TDI). This is one that wasn't on my radar until I heard Republican gubernatorial candidate Ken Block call for reform. But when I looked into it this appears to be an even bigger problem than he suggests. Rhode Island is one of only five states with mandatory TDI. The others are California, New York, New Jersey, and Hawaii, all states with fortress industries and such that make them most definitely not Rhode Island's peer group. It has the second highest benefit levels. It has a state run monopoly system. It allows employees to double dip. And I believe Rhode Island's program is one of only two along with California that has a temporary caregiver leave component. I'd completely repeal mandatory TDI. But again, reform of some sort should be possible without triggering political nuclear war. Eliminate the state run system and tell businesses to buy coverage from the marketplace. Eliminate double-dipping. Make temporary caregiver leave a one time only or one per decade type benefit instead of annual recurring one. Put a lifetime cap on weeks of benefits and beyond that claimants should utilize long term disability coverage. Again, whatever we think about the idea of this system, Rhode Island is a huge outlier here and has little leverage to lead the way on this.
6. Perform a post-Obamamcare health insurance mandate review. Rhode Island has more items of mandated insurance coverage than any other state. Coming from Illinois – a blue state mind you – I was stunned at how much individual health insurance costs in Rhode Island. Obamacare seems to have largely standardized coverage and I would suggest defaulting to its coverage guidelines. If Rhode Island has items that go beyond this, it should eliminate any where at least ten other states (including at least MA and CT) don't already mandate it.
7. Pass a clean semi-monthly payroll act. Until last year, Rhode Island was the only state in America that required companies to pay their employees weekly. That was changed to enable bi-weekly/semi-monthly payroll, but only for businesses whose average pay is twice the minimum wage and can post a surety bond, get the written permission of any unions affected, and recertify with the state every four years. You know what I call that? Progress. That's good news. But in keeping with the continuous improvement theme, the legislature should follow-up with a clean semi-monthly payroll bill.
8. Create a "most favored nation" regulatory policy with regards to Massachusetts and Connecticut. It's hard to argue that neighboring states have different core values. So their regulatory systems should be considered prima facie adequate for Rhode Island. Unlike California, a big and rich state, businesses are not going to jump through hoops for the privilege of serving small and economically challenged Rhode Island. So to make it easy, I suggest harmonizing regulations with Massachusetts (and if possible Connecticut) to create a mini type of EU style common market effect. This could be implemented via a most favored nation policy saying that "If it's legal in MA or CT, it's legal in Rhode Island. If you're licensed to do it in MA or CT, you're licensed to do it in Rhode Island." Rhode Island is really subscale to be running its own regulatory system anyway, so outsource it.
This doesn't even scratch the surface of what's needed on the regulatory front. Many of you probably saw the recent Thumbtack survey that ranked Rhode Island the worst state in the country for its small business climate, as rated by small businesses themselves. Metro Providence was ranked the second worst metro. Fixing this is actually much more critical than taxes in my view, but also harder as many of the worst regulations around land use and such are at the local level. So this is where local reformers should focus.
When I spoke to the Rhode Island House of Representative earlier this year, the other speaker was a representative from CVS sharing his perspectives on what that company looks for in places to invest. One item he mentioned as important is utility costs. Hence my thought about utility taxes above. But beyond that, Rhode Island's electric bills are among the highest in the country and gas prices are high too. There needs to be a focus on bringing those down. Lowering electric rates doesn't deprive the treasury of much and actually saves money on government electricity purchases. Unfortunately, as someone pointed out to me, in Rhode Island it works just the opposite; because it doesn't appear to be a tax, the legislature feels free to pass laws that send rates through the roof.
9. Kill Deepwater Wind by any means necessary. Deepwater Wind is a crony capitalism fiasco of epic proportions involving an offshore wind farm. Billed by some as the "next 38 Studios", it's actually even worse as the price tag will be hundreds of millions of dollars. IIRC, the increased cost to governments alone from purchasing inflated electricity will be $1.5 million a year. The environmentalists I know don't even like the project. The only plus side to anybody other than cronies appears to be reduced electric rates on Block Island. Well, I may have cheaper electricity, but I don't get to live on an amazing island. Nevertheless, if it's important to bring those rates down, then direct subsidies would be cheaper.
10. Partner with other New England states on increasing gas pipeline capacity into New England. A while back City Lab ran a story talking about a new gas pipeline under the Hudson River into New York City. As you probably know, gas is dirt cheap right now because of plentiful supplies from fracking in places like Pennsylvania. But that doesn't help if the gas can't get there. The Northeast has been under-pipelined. But as you can see, New York City is seeing the infrastructure investment to bring this online. New England isn't. Here's the money chart showing the price spikes this produces:
I'm not sure why no new pipelines have come into New England, but I'd certainly make it my business to find out. By the way, some residents do heat their homes with natural gas. I did when I lived in the state. So beyond industrial customers, think about what that chart means to struggling Rhode Islanders' winter heating bills.
Sadly, the state seems to be moving in the opposite direction as the legislature passed more laws this year that will at first glance raise rates still higher.
11. Cut to Invest With a Major Infrastructure Bond. Bruce Katz at the Brookings Institution likes to talk about a principle called "cut to invest." That means making cuts in current spending in order to invest in critical items like infrastructure. Rhode Island's infrastructure is in rough shape so that approach is needed here. Interest rates are rock bottom right now so there's no better time to borrow. As the Fed dials back on quantitative easing, the window may start closing on this. Rhode Island needs to identify cuts in ongoing spending sufficient to finance payment on a major infrastructure bond targeting roads, bridges, and schools. I'm not talking about adding any new road capacity here, just doing things like rehabbing or replacing the existing crumbling bridges and obsolete school buildings.
As the Sakonnet River Bridge debacle shows, this money is going to be spent one way or another. Better to do it now on the state's terms instead of later when it will cost a whole lot more to, for example, fully replace decayed structures that could have been saved if they'd only been properly maintained.
Under no circumstances should Rhode Island issue a bond without the full necessary funding stream for repayment allocated up front.
12. Investigate shared startup/co-working facilities. Instead of paying companies to set up shop in Rhode Island, invest the sales effort into luring operators like TechShop to create locations in Rhode Island. These types of co-working facilities can reduce the cost of capital and risk of entrepreneurship. I'm not a big fan of government building these directly, but they are a key part of the startup infrastructure of a community these days.
13. Build more Quonsets. NYU economist Paul Romer has advocated for a "charter city" concept in developing countries along the lines of a charter school as a way to bypass dysfunction. Rhode Island already basically applied that concept at the former Quonset naval base. Quonset is everything Rhode Island is not. They've invested in first class infrastructure. They have a single zoning classification, business friendly performance-based development standards, pre-permitted sites, a single point of contact for approvals, and a 90 days to groundbreaking pledge. Port users even have a tax advantage in that they are exempt from the Army Corps of Engineers import duty because the state instead of the feds paid for the port improvements. The result: 9,000 jobs, including 3,500 created in just the last few years.
Why not replace this model elsewhere by partnering with towns to create more Quonsets? When I pitched this idea at a RIPEC event, an economist with Beacon Hill Institute in Boston wasn't a big fan. He critiqued it on two basic points. One is that the businesses who located there probably would have been elsewhere in Rhode Island. The other was that the $10,000 a job in infrastructure investment was too high.
I think the first criticism is fair and must be true to some extent. Additionally, some of the jobs are directly port related and there isn't another deepwater port handy that I'm aware of. However, there's no hard data on this and my assumption would be that at least some of the non-port jobs must represent a net gain to the state. In any case, Quonset is the best thing going in the state right now, so why not give the model another chance? Also, keep in mind that a state like Tennessee paid $250,000+ per job for a VW plant. $10K/job – not in subsidies, but infrastructure – is small potatoes as these things go, particularly in state where the infrastructure is decrepit. I'm pretty sure if I told the legislature they could create middle class jobs at $10K a pop in infrastructure, they'd sign checks all day long.
At Quonset, the state is the developer. For new sites, I'd look to partner with a private developer, with a state authority as infrastructure partner and approval provider a la Quonset.
I won't suggest this list is anywhere near where the state needs to be. It doesn't address key issues as the local level like regulations that hobble building, or the corruption/cronyism issues. But hopefully this provides at least some tangible first steps that could get the state pointing in the direction it needs to go.
As with my guiding principles list, some of these items were originally suggested by other people.
Wednesday, July 2nd, 2014
The Changing Face Of Chicago (1963)
You've no doubt seen many posts already about the 80,000 vintage newsreel type videos uploaded to You Tube by British Pathé. The biggest challenge with these is that no human being can possible process that quantity of material. But it's fascinating and you could probably spend many a day watching these things.
I'll share a few highlights today focused on Chicago. First, one I found via Ben Schulman. It's a 1963 video called "The Changing Face of Chicago" and can be viewed on You Tube if the embed doesn't display.
Listening to the narrator brag about the "27 urban renewal projects under construction" can inspire perhaps horror or laughter. But what it should spark is humility. I've little doubt that 50 years from now, the many earnest urbanist videos and policies put forth with equally as much dogmatic fervor and certainty will be the subject of future generations' puzzlement. My own blog may perhaps be an exhibit.
We need to have a sense of meta-narrative about progress. By that, I mean that we not only need to understand the ways in which we've changed or grown vs. the past, but also keep an awareness that we're not done yet and that in the future we will have gone beyond where we are now. We should never commit the fallacy of believing we've reached the apex of our understanding in the present.
Whet Moser also put together a collection of Chicago entries over at Chicago Magazine.
Here's a fun one of his from 1939 called "Chicago Cycles."
Here's one from 1922 (silent) of riots in Chicago with police arresting "anarchists."
And from the some things never change file, video of a 1938 snowstorm.
There's plenty more so search and enjoy.
Tuesday, June 24th, 2014
Alternative Energy For Liberia by Andrew Falk
[ I had lunch a few weeks back with Donald Cassell, who works on the Africa program at the Sagamore Institute. He's Liberian and his focus is Liberia. He sent me some very interesting material on the country, including this piece on an alternative energy project there written by his colleague Andrew Falk. Please look at the original version for footnotes – Aaron. ]
President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf recently wrote an article in Foreign Policy in which she lamented that Liberia's twenty-three year civil war left the country's energy infrastructure "in shambles." She observed that of Liberia's 4.1 million citizens, only about one percent of urbanites – and almost no one living in rural settings has access to electricity.
President Sirleaf is not making up excuses when she cites the impact of the country's civil war: in 1980, when the war began, Liberia was producing 852 million kilowatts of electricity, and using 792 million kilowatts. By 1991, production and consumption had fallen by about sixty-eight percent to 273 million kilowatts and 253 million kilowatts, respectively. By 2010, the most recent year for which data is available, production and consumption had only risen to 335 million kilowatts and 311 million kilowatts, respectively.
A startling analogy employed by President Sirleaf in the same article puts Liberia's electrical woes into perspective: AT&T Stadium, the home of the Dallas Cowboys, uses more electricity than the total installed capacity of Liberia. While this analogy could be misleading as the Wall Street Journal noted, AT&T Stadium only consumes that amount of power for several hours a day on eight regular-season NFL games it is staggering to consider that AT&T Stadium's ten megawatt electrical usage is more than three times the amount that Liberia can put into its national grid.
President Barack Obama visited Africa during the summer of 2013 and announced a new initiative, Power Africa, which is designed to work with six African countries, including Liberia, to increase electrical production and provide electrical access to twenty million new households and businesses.
In contrast to the large-scale programs proposed by President Obama and being planned by multinational corporations, several individuals and small organizations are already on the ground making a difference in Liberia. One such organization is the Liberian Energy Network (LEN), a nonprofit organization started by Richard Fahey, a retired environmental attorney from the United States. LEN imported two hundred solar lights in May 2013, and two more shipments are anticipated before the end of the year. LEN sells the lights through retail shops in Monrovia and through partner organizations such as Ganta Methodist Mission Hospital, Advanced Youth Project, and the Christ Network for Good. It charges only enough to cover its costs of manufacturing, shipment, and operating expenses. Several types of lights are available, from a small reading light to a much larger unit capable of lighting a hospital ward. A third model also has the ability to charge a cell phone.
Meanwhile, a Liberian construction company is seeking to address the country's electrical shortage by building sustainable, off-the-grid homes. MenKaR Construction Company is in discussions with John Waters and Donald Cassell, Sagamore Institute Senior Fellows, to design and build housing units powered by lithium batteries that are recharged by solar power. The proposed units will be close to the University of Liberia in one of Monrovia's suburbs.
Waters is an expert in alternative energy with a long history in battery design and development. He was one of the General Motors engineers who helped develop the EV1, one of the earliest successful electric vehicles. Since then, Waters has worked on battery research for Delphi, Segway, and Bright Automotive.
Waters has developed a battery that he calls a Universal Battery Module (UBM). The UBM has a ten-year life in the worst-case scenario where it would be completely drained of power every day, 300 days a year, and completely recharged. The battery is designed to provide 3,000 one hundred percent discharge cycles. If, for example, the battery were only drained halfway every day, its life could extend to twenty years.
The UBM can be used to power lights and cooking appliances in the home; to run water pumps for drinking, bathing, and washing; and to recharge cell phones. The UBMs are also designed to be compact and light enough that they may be removed from the home to power electric scooters, motorcycles, four-wheel devices, and small tractors. For example, one application in the active planning stages is powering motorized water carts in Nigeria, where Waters is working with an international company to provide battery-powered carts to replace those presently pushed by eighteen to twenty-two year old young men.
Waters has also integrated his UBMs into a design for off-the grid homes. In designing a concept called Light Village, Waters envisions an off-grid family using ten compact florescent lights (CFLs) in their house (to replace kerosene or candles). Each CFL requires ten watts for ten hours, which is one kilowatt hour (kWh) for 10 lights used on a daily basis, and throughout the week. The family may use five hundred watts for cooking for three hours a day (for three meals) for a cumulative total of 1.5 kWh. The same family could use five hundred watts for an hour to pump water (0.5 kWh). And they move one battery to their scooter, which they ride for at least twenty-five miles for transportation to work or the market, which would use another 2 kWh. All together, the family has used 5 kWh.
To meet this need, the family mounts a 1 kW solar panel on the roof of their home. With six hours of sun, they generate 6 kWh, which they can store in three 2kW batteries. The 6 kWh is more than the 5 kWh the family needs daily, but it could be either shared, saved, or used for other electrical needs. The solar energy used to meet the family's needs is abundant, "free," quiet, and produces no emissions.
One of the unique aspects of Waters' model is the mobility of the battery. The battery's mobility makes it possible to also have a battery station in the village where a station owner invests in solar panels. The residents of the village could come in every two days and swap batteries for a fee. This option would relieve most people from having to invest in and install solar panels for their homes. Expanding the model further, Waters is in discussions with large capital companies that would purchase the UBMs and lease electrons back to customers at lower cost than they spend daily on firewood, charcoal, kerosene, and candles.
In addition to the solar power and battery packs, Waters has worked with Architects and Sagamore Institute Senior Fellows, Scott Truex and Donald Cassell, to design the Light Village homes to collect rainwater on the roof, which is then used in the kitchen and in the toilet. The resulting brown water could be then flushed outside the house where it is filtered and could even provide natural fertilizer for the family's micro garden. Waters hopes the western idea of complex, expensive, and centralized energy and sewage infrastructures will be a thing of the past.
While it will probably be many years before Liberia begins to generate and consume electricity at rates similar to cities in the West, thanks to organizations such as LEN and projects such as Waters' Light Village, many Liberians could be enjoying the benefits of sustainable electricity much sooner.
Andrew Falk is a senior fellow with the Sagamore Institute. His research focuses primarily on environmental and energy issues.
Sunday, June 15th, 2014
Is Brazil Still the Country of the Future?
Not long ago, Brazil was riding high. It was feted as one of the "BRIC" nations destined to be the next world economic powers. The commodities boom had its natural resources and agricultural sectors humming. The press – for example, Monocle magazine's swooning over Brazil's push to boost its diplomatic presence – was adoring. And Rio was awarded the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics, two events that were intended to both serve as a catalyst for further development, and also as a coming out party of sorts for the country.
The World Cup is underway, but otherwise things haven't quite worked out as Brazil thought they would. The average citizen of the country is upset at the vast sums being spent on international events that don't benefit them. The last two years have featured riots, strikes, and various other expressions of unrest. Economic growth in the country has collapsed. In a special section last September, the Economist asked, "Has Brazil Blown It?"
Late last month the McKinsey Global Institute issued a major report on the country called "Connecting Brazil to the World: A Path to Inclusive Growth." At 104 pages, it's massive, but a must read for anybody interested in South America's giant.
And it's a somewhat depressing read as well. Though there are immense strengths and opportunities for the future, Brazil has big problems too, most of them longstanding, and which hobble its aspirations.
Brazil is the 7th largest economy in the world and the 7th leading destination for foreign direct investment. But it's 95th in per capita GDP, 114th in the quality of its infrastructure, and 124th in its level of ease in trading across borders. Its export sector is also heavily commodity dependent, particularly oil. Ranked only 43rd in global connectedness on McKinsey's index, they estimate a potential boost of 1.25% (presumably percentage points) to annual GDP growth from improvements on that measure alone.
Three particular items jumped out at me from the study. One is the "custo Brasil" – the Brazil cost, so notorious it gets its own Wikipedia entry. A variety of factors from bureaucracy to the tax regime to an uncertain legal climate, poor infrastructure, crime, and corruption make the cost of doing business in Brazil very pricey indeed.
The second is the very low rate of investment in the economy. Brazil's gross investment rate as a percentage of GDP is 18%, compared with 26% in Chile, 29% in Mexico, 40% in India, and 49% in China. Conversely, government consumption is at 22% in Brazil vs. 12% in Chile and Mexico, 13% in India, and 14% in China. Private consumption is similar in the countries except for China, which is notably lower. This probably helps explain the poor state of the infrastructure in the country.
The third is something I have personal experience with, namely protectionist trade barriers designed to create and sustain domestic industries in sectors like autos and computers. I suspect these rules were modeled on Japan, and more lately China, which used rules and business practices to build successful local champions. But in Brazil this has rendered its industry sclerotic. In effect, cars sold in Brazil have to be made in Brazil, ditto for computers, etc. This is where my personal experience comes in. When we were doing global PC procurement, Brazil was always a special case and our vendors had to have special Brazil made PCs for domestic use. This may not be an actual rule, but tariffs produce a de facto barrier. While this technique may have worked in Japan, it's clear that it failed in Brazil. As the exception that proves the rule, McKinsey uses the example of regional jet manufacturer Embraer as a counterfactual. That company was privatized and opened to global competition. The result is that its got tough itself and is now an industrial champion for Brazil.
There are tons of statistics in the study that are worth scanning just to see. Brazil is consistently benchmarked against Chile and Mexico in Latin America, as well as fellow BRICs India and China. The comparisons aren't pretty.
Reading a lot about the country in the last year, I put its problems into three categories: poor governance, geographic disadvantage, and scale disadvantage.
1. Poor Governance
Most of the issues pointed out by McKinsey fall squarely under the heading of poor governance. The contrast with nearby Chile could not be more plain across every dimension: corruption, the rule of law, investment, public sector debt, tax burden, infrastructure, regulation, etc.
Latin America seems to prefer two sorts of governments these days. One is a right wing nationalist heir to the military juntas of the past, best exemplified by the Kirchner regime in Argentina. The other are left wing populist-nationalist movements like Venezuela that tend to feature a streak of anti-Americanism. Both of these have produced pitiful results.
Brazil is a sort of lite version of the latter. Lula da Silva was a charismatic labor activist who led strikes and was jailed by the previous military dictatorship in his youth. Post-democratization, he went into politics. After moderating some of his more radical views, he was elected president on a reform agenda. While he had some success and was arguably and improvement on his predecessors, he ultimately failed to deliver on material changes in governance. His hand picked successor Dilma Rousseff has not been as effective and is in an electoral struggle for another term.
In line with the nationalist streak of this governing type, one of Da Silva's primary concerns was Brazil's amour-propre. As one of the world's largest countries, he found it self-evident that Brazil should be treated as a great power. He lobbied for Brazil to have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. He and others responded in kind to any affront to the nation's pride, such as requiring American and only American visitors to be finger printed after the US imposed a fingerprinting requirement on foreign visitors. He sought out diplomatic coups where ever he could find them, which included cozying up to unsavory characters like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who thinks Israel should be destroyed and that Iran has no gays (presumably because he has them executed when he can find them).
Da Silva forgot that there's more to being a great power than being a big country – you've got to earn it. And as a very popular politician he did not seize his moment of opportunity to truly grasp the nettle of reform.
Meanwhile nearby Chile is one of the Latin American governments that's followed a different model. It's been run by center-left governments more or less the entire time since the restoration of democracy, and they've delivered on a good governance model that has taken them to effectively developed country status. Chile is now even a member of the OECD. Chile is basically the Minnesota of Latin America, and the results demonstrate it. This should show Brazil the size of the prize if the get their act together.
2. Geographic Disadvantage
Brazil is simply a long way from major developed markets. This puts it at a geographic disadvantage versus many other countries. Current airplanes cannot make a non-stop flight from Brazil to East Asia, arguably the most important emerging part of the world. It's even a long haul from the United States, with relatively few gateway cities vs. say major European capitals. Brazil is time-zone advantaged with the US, however. It also speaks Portuguese instead of Spanish, which imposes a linguistic handicap.
3. Scale Disadvantage
Brazil is a big country, geographically and in population. Size can be an advantage, but it also makes reform difficult as it's hard to turn a battleship. Brazil's population of 200 million is more than ten times that of Chile.
Brazil's two principal cities, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, are also megacities. São Paulo in particular is huge, and at north of 20 million people (more than the entire country of Chile) is the 10th largest city in the world. I recently wrote that it's unlikely the world's emerging megacities will turn the corner in eliminating dysfunction. Their problems are just too huge and their national growth rate too low. Though I'd consider this more hypothesis than conclusion at this point, my rule of thumb is that a megacity can only achieve escape velocity from pervasive dysfunction if they are a major city in a country that is the world's current rising economic (or historically imperial) power.
Brazil is not that country, and two mega cities will be a drag on growth. Although São Paulo is an important emerging global city – 23rd in the world in a forthcoming report I helped create – I'm told that both São Paulo and Rio are growing more slowly than secondary cities in the country. A previous McKinsey study threw cold water on the idea that megacities are an advantage, noting their under performance by saying:
It is a common misperception that megacities have been driving global growth for the past 15 years. In fact, most have not grown faster than their host economies, and MGI expects this trend to continue. Today's 23 megacities—with populations of 10 million or more—will contribute about 10 percent of global growth to 2025, below their 14 percent share of global GDP.
In contrast, 577 middleweights—cities with populations of between 150,000 and 10 million, are seen contributing more than half of global growth to 2025, gaining share from today's megacities.
So I'm not surprised that it's Curitiba, not one of the megacities, that's where the innovative BRT revolution was begun. If I were looking to invest in Brazil, I'd be looking at this next tier of cities. Nor is it surprising that Santiago, Chile (population 5.4 million) has had great success in modernizing given its more moderate size.
Plain and simple the degree of difficulty is higher in Brazil because of the size.
Brazil is also a very racially diverse country with a number of challenges resulting from its history of oppression. Brazil had more slaves than any other country in the world and was the last New World colony/nation to abolish it. If slave reparations are on the agenda in the United States, how much more so similar issues in Brazil? Again, contrast with Chile, which never had very many slaves and abolished slavery in 1818. With the exception of a relatively few indigenous peoples on reservations, Chileans largely perceive themselves as ethnically homogenous, though with some skin tone based status (moderately sized…historically racially homogenous…Minnesota?)
Which is to say that it's tough to entirely fault Brazil for not living up to the example of Chile. Its degree of difficulty is much higher. And its geography hamstrings its global interaction.
Nevertheless, solving the governance challenges to address the real issues Brazil faces remains the top agenda item. McKinsey has laid out a number of good suggestions, the real question is whether or not Brazil's socio-political system can produce the ability to implement them.
Thursday, June 12th, 2014
Will the World's Emerging Megacities Turn the Corner?
My latest post is online over at New Geography and is called "Will the World's Emerging Megacities Turn the Corner?" There's an explosion of megacities happening around the world, often in developing countries. These cities face huge infrastructure issues, social issues, poverty and slums, etc. The question is whether they will ever achieve escape velocity from that. I don't think so. Here's an excerpt:
Most emerging megacities likely will never turn the corner to developed status and achieve a decent standard of living and quality of life for their residents. They may be important national centers of aspiration, but most of them will never become influential global cities. Their huge size and vast problems will leave them with perpetual entrenched poverty, poor infrastructure and public services, and low quality of life by global standards.
The general rule seems to be that a megacity can only escape pervasive dysfunction if they are a major city in a country that is the world's current rising economic (or historically imperial) power.
In the second edition of Peter Hall's landmark book The World Cities, he describes a 1970s Tokyo in which the night soil pickup industry was alive and well. Only in an era of national economic hyper growth – culminating in the 1980s – was Japan able to fully modernize its urban infrastructure and clean up the massive environmental problems resulting from its rapid industrialization and urbanization. This was the time when Japan seemed destined to become the world's leading economic power, and America was fretting as Japanese investors bought trophy assets ranging from Columbia Pictures to Rockefeller Center.
We are witnessing the same today in China. It's no accident that cities like Beijing and Shanghai are becoming fully modernized at the same time that China is the world's rising economic power. Even there, serious problems with social integration, pollution, and low quality development remain. China had best hope its economic growth continues until such time as it's rich enough to solve those problems too.


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We've heard good things about Jillian Michaels' Fitness Ultimatum 2009, a game that uses the Wii console with the Balance Board. Michaels is a fitness expert featured on the NBC reality show The Biggest Loser. The game features 11 activities (with light, medium, and hard intensity levels) and offers durations ranging from 10 to 60 minutes. They're categorized in four major workout modes: Weight Loss, Strength Training, Intervals, and Hill Climb. You also get fitness, diet, and lifestyle tips from Michaels herself. In keeping with the TV show, multiple players can compete against each other, cycling through the various workout regimes to see who burns the most calories at the end of the game. Like Wii Fit, Fitness Ultimatum provides a wealth of exercise and progress data (distance, time, intensity levels, and more) throughout the workout.
Garmin Forerunner 405 GPS Device
Okay, now for some real-world exercise. The Garmin Forerunner 405 is the Cadillac of wrist watches for serious runners. The 405 is the svelte descendant of a line of larger, forearm-encircling models that have long pleased runners interested in GPS-based stats like speed, distance, and pace. In our tests of a Forerunner 405 equipped with an optional heart-rate monitor, the unit offered speedy satellite acquisition, accurate vitals monitoring, and lots of detailed running data. The device's touch-sensitive bezel can be problematic, and its battery duration isn't the greatest, but the watchlike 405 should be a great motivational tool.
Nike and Apple have teamed up to integrate the running shoe with the audio player to create a simple yet powerful system for keeping you informed and inspired during your workouts. The kit includes a pedometer that fits inside "Nike+ ready" shoes and wirelessly reports your time, speed, and distance via your iPod Nano. You can opt to have this information appear on your Nano screen; or you can obtain an audible update of your time, distance, and speed by pressing the center select button on your Nano. What I like best about the system is being able to put that special super-psyche-up song in my mix, and select it at the point in my workout where I need an extra blast of adrenaline to complete the final brutal few minutes of my cardio.
To get the whole experience, you'll need to have the following pieces in place: an iPod Nano, a computer, a pair of "Nike+ ready" shoes (usually priced at around $100), and maybe an armband to hold the Nano and receiver.
If you own an iPhone, you have access to a legion of apps designed to turn your device into a powerful health and fitness aid. The iPhone App Store offers hundreds of independently developed applications; here are five of the best ones.
iPump Total Body: iPump has developed some 20 fitness apps that the iTunes store sells, but Total Body ($2.99) is perhaps the least specialized of these, and thus the best to start with. iPump gives you speech, text, and image presentations of preset workouts, each one including some cardio for warm-up and warm-down. When you're done with a workout, the app notes the accomplishment and keeps track of which ones you've already completed. The idea is to cycle through all of the workouts so that you never get bored.

subset: commoncrawl


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Anthony Court Apartments345 Iron St, Bloomsburg, PA 17815 View On Map (570) 387-1665
For rates, availability, and other information fill out the availability request form and a representative from Anthony Court Apartments will contact you shortly
Anthony Court is located in the Scranton Area in the 17815 zip code. View this apartment on a map.
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2-2-2014 Newshound Guru Tlar Article: "35 trillion dinars, the volume of cash in circulation" 35 trillion is a press stock number from early 2012 told to the press by Saleh. The CBI has not revealed how many dinars are in circulation since this was disclosed by Saleh in early 2012. Saleh also disclosed that there was only 4 trillion out of the 35 trillion circulating in Iraq at that time. Iraq has been dollarizing for 16-17 months. I doubt that there is even 4 trillion dinars left circulating in Iraq.
Subscribe and comment below.
Dinars.me Note: We care about our readers, so please use common sense and read this before believing a word you read on this or any other dinar website.


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Geometry Global is the largest and most geographically complete activation agency of its kind, providing brand marketers with a unique solution: Precision Activation. This proprietary approach focuses on identifying the exact blend of context and content that influences consumer behavior, and transforming creative ideas into effective business growth drivers. With teams in 56 markets, the global network develops highly compelling marketing programs - informed by data and insights - connecting people with brands at precisely the right times, in the right places, and right ways - making a measurable difference to our clients' businesses. Launched in June 2013, Geometry Global delivers award-winning creativity and integrated talent across a range of disciplines including Shopper, Relationship, Promotional and Experiential, Trade and Digital Marketing. Geometry Global is a WPP company. For more information, visit www.geometry.com.
Steve Harding, Global CEOStefan Himpe, Global CFO/COOCarl Hartman, CEO, North AmericaPietro Leone, CEO, EAMEGerman Yunes, CEO, Latin AmericaJohn Goodman, CEO, Asia Pacific


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I hate wind......
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I hate wind......
Well not really, but I had a "frustrating" day today.
Weather called for 10-15 kt winds with winds gusts to 20, For my Pearson 10M Tall Rig, 10 to 15 is sweet with 135%. Wind over 20kts, for my boat, can be very overpowering. My typical set up is main and 135% RF Genny.
So we head out and wind is 0 kt, but then picks up to 5kt 50 yds from the mooring. Shutdown the iron genny and trim the main. Going 3 kts, so out comes the genny. Speed just shy of 5 kts, and wind has picked up to 6 to 8. Point-of-sail is reach/broad reach. Settle in and enjoy the ride. Once out of the harbor, we pass "hurricane alley", a spot where the wind is often very strong due to the land mass formation. Once pass the Alley, wind is between 5 and 10 kts and generally in the same direction. We are now on a broad run. Then the wind dies to around 2 kts and then 0 kts.
Well within a matter of two minutes the wind went from 0 to 25 kts (30 kt gusts) and the direction went almost 90 deg. With almost 700 ft of sail up, we were SOOOOO overpowered. On some of the gusts, we were lifted almost 90 deg. There were only two of us and I was sail trimmer. I thought we just went through a little wind burst area and things would return to calm. We it got worse and I couldn't get the RF Genny reefed quick enough. Even when I got reduced by 35%, it seemed like there was little effect. I finally decided to bring it all the way in but it was very hard (even down wind and blanketed by the main).
Once in, we had much better control just sailing under the main, but had enough after a half of hour getting pounded with delta 25+ wind gusts and multiple wind direction changes.
Since May and Oct in New England seems to be full of these No Wind - Gusty Wind days, I think I am changing my sail configuration to a very small 95-100% RF Jib and a main during these months. This will reduce my sail area from roughly 700 ft2 to about 520 ft. I will sacrifice speed/performance in low wind times for safety during the high wind times. I could go with the main only, but upwind pointability suffers. A Genny only makes controlling the boat somewhat difficult as there is a little less weather helm and is more difficult to trim. I think a balanced sail plan is best. Worst case scenario, main reefed and jib reefed to about 80% of fore triangle.
What do others do in these constantly variable wind speed and direction situations with re: sail plan management.
If you liked my advice/response, give me some rep points. If you didn't......well what do you expect, it was free.
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Phoenix Suns
Suns Strokes: Phoenix stung late in the Big Easy
Sure, you could read the box score and know who won, but we all know that won't tell you everything that happened in a basketball game. So, we will give you Suns Strokes, providing you with the analysis, quotes and notes from the Suns' 93-84 loss to the Hornets on February 6.
The Good:
Offensively, the Suns started fast scoring 27 points in the first 12 minutes. As they did against the Grizzlies, Phoenix focused primarily on working the ball through Marcin Gortat (14 points and seven rebounds) and Luis Scola (11 points) early.
Unfortunately for the Suns, that plan was short-lived, as the team resorted to a bevvy of perimeter jump shots over the final three quarters.
Jared Dudley and P.J Tucker did a tremendous job defensively on Eric Gordon. In just his 16th game of the season, the Hornets guard struggled to find consistency with his jump shot, going 3-of-14 for nine points in the win.
The Bad:
The Suns were abysmal from three-point range (1-of-15), with seven different players missing at least one attempt.
Three-point shooting was not their only downfall in the Crescent City. Phoenix continued to shoot itself in the foot with costly turnover over costly turnover. On the night, the Suns gave the ball away 17 times.
Despite those two glaring issues, Lindsey Hunter's squad found itself down 80-78 with under six minutes remaining.
But the road-weary Suns played the part down the stretch, as they yielded a 13-6 run by New Orleans to end the game.
� A night after playing a career-high 31 minutes, rookie Kendall Marshall once again received a heavy dose of playing time. The former UNC star was must less effective against the Hornets, however, scoring zero points on 0-of-2 shooting in 20 minutes. His willingness to pass up open shots from the top of the key was by far more troubling than his empty stat line.
� During the Suns 111-108 victory over the Hornets back in November, Greivis Vasquez had his way with Goran Dragic. The one-sided matchup didn't change much Wednesday. Vasquez, who ranks 3rd in the NBA in assists per game, had quite a night against the Slovenian (19 points, 12 assists and four steals).
� The Suns got their first look at Anthony Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft. While Davis only had eight points, he along with Robin Lopez, Al-Farouq Aminu and Jason Smith had a field day in the paint. The Hornets had 56 paint points in the victory.
Up Next:
The Suns will end their road trip against the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday. The game is scheduled to tip-off at 6:00 p.m. MST.
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- Charles Barkley, NBA Hall of FamerCharles Barkley picks the Cavaliers to win the NBA Championship.
- Rick Welts, President of the Golden State WarriorsRick Welts compares his Warriors team to the Suns teams from when he worked in Phoenix.
- Bickley BlastSummer has arrived and the Phoenix market is hoping for some good news from any of its sports teams.
- Jeff Hornacek, Suns head coachJeff Hornacek discusses the upcoming draft and whether he would be interested in coaching in college
- Bickley BlastThis Warriors team is what the Suns should have been.


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USMC Pound Session
Kinetic energy flies through USMC Ryan's eyes as he has his first look at USMC Sam. Sam is a quiet guy and it takes some time for him to get comfortable with new people, especially someone as hot as Ryan. Luckily for him, Ryan is very open and just lights up the room when he starts talking.Feeling really comfortable these boys whip out their dicks for each other to stroke. Getting eager, Ryan takes the initiative to go down on Sam's hunky meat. Enjoying it so much, Sam gets up on his knees so he can plow deep down into the back of Ryan's juicy throat.Ryan, gagging on the huge, tasty morsel, is suddenly flipped around and Sam shoves his wet cock into Ryan's hairy, gaping hole. Moaning with such intensity, Ryan was in ecstasy as Sam pounded in and out of the tight ass. Occasionally, Sam slowed down so that Ryan could feel every inch of dick sliding through him.Sam quickly pulls out his enormous cock, and leans over Ryan's flushed face. In a Matter of seconds, Ryan's face is
Website: CLICK HERE
Added: 12 Nov 09
Views: 64660
anal sex / fucking
j8464m 6 months ago
Both guys are HOTT!!!!
ger669 6 months ago
buen episodio tremenda cogida
manohman 6 months ago
Dirty Tony does it too, and it's always guys talking about motorcycles or how 'straight' they supposedly are and how much they want to fuck girls (yeah right, AJ Irons, try and tell us that when you're grunting like a bitch with a dick up your ass). Regardless, get to the sex!
manohman 6 months ago
It seems more conversation-centric rather than sex-centric, which is what it SHOULD be about. I know they're just previews for full-length videos, but come on, the least that could be done is put all the talking at the beginning, and the fucking, or build-up scenes at the end. Even that would be preferable to the constant interruptions about them talking about how much they love and lots of "umm"s and "uh yeah"s and whatever else they come out with.
manohman 6 months ago
Don't get me wrong, I like AAH videos and all, because the guys are usually hot and so is the fucking most of the time. But, really, the point of watching porn is to derive sexual pleasure from it, and the way most people do that by themselves is masturbation. So, why the hell do all these videos have scenes of talking, and then scenes of sex in between them?
mrbigshot 6 months ago
I'd bottom for either one!
librax3 6 months ago


text:
Great thread, thanks
Great tip! Thank you so much!
One more tip please!
Great, It's time saving
Thanks for the tip Ivor!
comes when its much needed.. Thanks!
Thanks Ivor
Thanks for help me
I do it always, not something new, it also helpful for next step development.
I split folders and name all layers with their correct names, not Layer 1, Layer 345… etc
Most likely structure is like: Header, Intro Slider, About, Team… Footer.. – all in separate folders.
A question…. Do I can make a .psd for example folder about us, etc and diferents colors eye? It's correct or not?
Edit: If layer call 'background' (background white) then Do I can change name folder or detele layer?
^ It is ok.
Great tip @Ivor, thanks!
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text:
Mon-Fri: 7am-1am EST / Sat-Sun: 7am-11pm EST
ApplianceGeneral Electric Oven
Level of DifficultyEasy
Time to do repairLess than 15 mins
Age of ApplianceMore than 10 years
Shut the power off to the oven. Removed the two screws holding the element to the back wall of the oven. Pulled out and disconnected the old element. Connected the new element, secured with screws and restored power to the oven. Easy as that. Will be using Parts Select for all my repair needs from now on. Thanks.
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Mandaue to teach students on proper garbage disposal
TO make the children aware about the impact of throwing garbage indiscriminately, a video presentation will be conducted in both public and private schools in Mandaue city.
Mayor Jonas Cortes said it's important for the children to know the ill effects of throwing garbage indiscriminately, even if it is just a candy wrapper.
Cortes said the activity is part of the city's information dissemination campaign to address the problem of flooding.
The Mandaue City government will tap the Department of Education (DepEd) to implement the program.
"Global warming is caused by our abuse of the environment," he said.
He said the film-showing activities in schools will promote proper solid waste management.
Cortes blamed climate change for the predicament of Cesar M. Cabahug Elementary School in barangay Looc, Mandaue City that gets flooded during high tide.
Cortes said the city will intensify information dissemination in schools to help address flooding.
He said there are residents who continue to throw wastes anywhere, clogging drains and creeks. /REPORTER JUCELL MARIE P. CUYOS
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Gifts for Heart Surgery Patients
Healthy get well gift ideas for patients undergoing heart surgery.
Gifts for Heart Surgery Patients
- 17 Pins
Healthy Heart Guided Imagery by Belleruth Naparstek
Healthy Heart, Healthy Lifestyle, Heart Diseas, Heart Surgery, Heart Guide, Belleruth Naparstek, Heart Healthy
Cardiac ICU guided imagery CD.
Cardiac Icu, Guide Imagery, Icu Guide, Guide Imagri, Heart Surgery, Chronic Pain Info, Health Journey, Heart Healthy, Counseling Center
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Low-Sodium Heart Health Gift Basket Deluxe
Heart surgery patients on low sodium diets will appreciate this get well gift basket with heart-friendly treats.
Healthy Gift, Loss Healthy, Healthy Recipe, Heart Healthy
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An impressive healthy gift basket for heart surgery recovery. Foods that are helpful in promoting heart health.
Heart Health Extra Gift Basket
Certified Organic Heart-Healthy Gift Basket. Organic gift basket with healthy snacks for those on heart-healthy diets.
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Organic Heart-Healthy Gift Basket
Heart-Healthy Golfer Get Well Basket--your favorite golfer down-and-out? Get them back out on the green quicker with our golfer gift basket that's especially made for golfers with heart disease.
Hearthealthy Golfer
Heart-Healthy Golfer Get Well Basket
High Fiber gift basket. Great for those on heart-friendly diets!


text:
Author Information
OTHER TITLES BY Amy Herring
Date: 2014-10-07
The Moon is your heart�your tender, vulnerable insides. Your natal Moon sign is the central place to look in your chart for clues on how to understand your emotional needs, as well as the experiences and types of environments that feel nurturing to you. In this article from Llewellyn's 2015 Moon Sign Book, astrologer Amy Herring discusses why we sometimes have to be willing to explore the "dark side" of our Moon Sign to be able to turn our frowns upside down.
Date: 2013-07-26
The word trust can mean different things to different people. Some people measure trust in reference to how reliable (trustworthy) they think someone is�that they can rely on someone not to lie to them or to keep their promises, for example. Some people consider themselves trusting of others because they have a conviction that people are generally good. People often extend the word beyond...
Date: 2012-06-26
The Moon in astrology represents your overall emotional needs and disposition, but its depth goes beyond simply what makes you happy or sad. The Moon represents the places in us that are soft and vulnerable, so its placement in your natal chart can reveal the kind of experiences and environments you require to feel safe and nurtured, to feel relaxed enough to be yourself and show that soft...
Date: 2011-05-25
Most people are familiar with the concept of compatibility in astrology. "I�m an Aries, he�s a Cancer; are we a good match?" Person A�s astrological chart is then compared to Person B�s chart to determine how easy or difficult it will be to get along, understand each other, and have great sex. Then much giggling or moaning commences upon looking at each chart overlaid on the other. Once a...
Date: 2010-07-12
Saturn�s twenty-nine-and-half-year transiting cycle as personal evolution represents most directly the process of maturity. Not just getting older, but gaining wisdom through what we learn in our experience of growing up. During highlights in our personal Saturn cycle, we are often asked to confront a certain reality, whether it�s about how the outside world works or whether it�s our internal state of being, along the theme of what Saturn represents in our birth chart by sign and house. Our personal Saturn cycle can also have us confronting authorities, again whether they are external laws, judges, teachers, or parents, and our internal lesson of claiming our own natural authority and governance over our own lives. Amy Herring, author of Astrology of the Moon, explains.


text:
What is secured personal loans?
Tired of searching for lender who can give you approval for personal loan? Don't worry, you are at right place – get approved now – http://www.badcreditpersonalloanss.com/
Secured personal loans are kind of loan schemes, where as a borrower you will have to provide security for the money you are getting as loans. To provide the security you will keep any of your valuable assets as collateral towards the money lenders. If you fail to repay the money or if something wrong happens, the money lenders will be able to get back their money by liquidating the asset you have provided to them. This kind of loans are assumed as most risk free loans for the money lenders as they have the assurance of getting their money back before they provide the loan.
Benefits of secured personal loans:
This kind of loans is not only risky for the borrowers, but also with it there are some incredible facilities of this loan which helps the borrower to save money on the loans.
First of all the loans come up with lower rates of interest. As the money lenders have the assurance of getting the money back they will provide in loans, they charge less interest rates for the security. You will also have flexible repayment conditions for repayment of the loan when you are taking secured loans.
On the other hand, the secured loans are also available for the bad credit rating owners. As people who have bad credit rating do not have the access to get loans in the unsecured loans category, they can get the access to financial access like loans with the help of the personal loans with secured options. The money lenders do not bother about the credit history of the borrower when they provide personal secured loans.


text:
A practical 2 day course run by a former senior private banker on Successful Strategies for Managing Modern Family Office
This intensive 2 day training run by a former senior private banker and family office advisor will tell you everything about managing a modern family office. From operational setting, choosing investment strategy and asset allocation, to cost and risk management, tax advisory and philanthropy - you will explore the latest wealth management strategies.
Main Topics Covered During This Training
For more information or to register contact us on:
email@example.com [1]
+44 207 193 5035
www.eurekafinancial.com [2]
[1] mailto:email@example.com
[2] http://www.eurekafinancial.com
[3] http://www.eurekafinancial.com/courses/family_office_training_london.html
[4] http://www.hedgeweek.com/form/eureka-financial


text:
Manga Read
5,000 - 10,000 downloadsAdd this app to your listsTweets por @Appszoom
Manga Read Android Reader is an android application to read manga from.Manga Reader is a weekly updated manga application which has a list of most viewed Mangas like Naruto,One Piece , Bleach and many more. Enjoy reading best manga in the world such as One Piece, Naruto, Bleach, Fairy Tail and more with high quality images.Manga update is mangastream.
Tags: one piece themes, manga cnr.
Tags: one piece themes, manga cnr.
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SAN FRANCISCO---Anyone with time to spare on reading news this Thanksgiving weekend will inevitably stumble upon plenty of statistics about how millions upon millions of eager-beavers will be descending upon brick-and-mortar stores nationwide over the next few days.
Regardless if the turnout ends up being down from previous years, everyone from mom-and-pop shops to big box retailers will be tapping into the latest e-commerce trends and tools to accommodate them better in the hopes of squeezing out extra bucks at the same time.
But what about tools that could consumers could pick up on their own to simplify the shopping experience anywhere all year round? Sure, the obvious immediate answers would be smartphone and tablet apps, inevitably resulting in the new pattern known as "showrooming."
But we know all about those.
Rather, there is a new method not even on the market yet, already grabbing the attention of tech savvy: Coin, a credit card-sized device boasted to be able to sit in place of up to eight credit and debit cards.
An all-in-one device for credit and debit cards sounds both antiquated and too good to be true all at the same time.
"If you hand over a plastic card right now, you're never really sure if there is fraud going on," suggested Coin's CEO.
In regards to the former sentiment, it might appear as a step backward for mobile commerce given how much buzz and effort there has been around turning smartphones themselves into mobile wallets via apps from Isis and Google (among numerous others) not to mention continued (albeit whittling) talk about NFC technology.
In terms of hardware, arguably Square has had the most success (or at least attention), but there is competition in the mobile device attachment/companion app space from PayPal and Intuit too.
This discussion has gone on for a few years now, and not a single solution has proven to be the runaway hit. Thus, the door is still wide open for more mobile payment options to be presented.
A simple space saver like Coin could fit the bill -- at least for a time.
Naturally with anything technology, there are plenty of questions -- namely in regards to security -- that need to be answered first.


text:
Narrow your search
Ben & Jerry's will soon be making ice cream BRRR-itos so you can confuse your mouth the next time you have dessert. Hold the salsa, please.
Kickstarter projects that received not even a single dollar of love have been collected into an archive of futility that is equal parts sad and amusing.
Relive the shocking dinner scene in "Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom," or just pretend you're getting vengeance for the bad "Planet of the Apes" films.
A company that had specialized in royalty-free imagery sales now offers music, too. The reason: more licensing revenue from its video-licensing business.
The decision marks the end of a patent-infringement trial between the two mobile phone giants. Tune back to CNET for more details.
The mobile giants accuse each other of infringing patents on their devices. Worth noting: these patents haven't passed legal muster in the past.
Samsung argues it didn't copy Apple's patents because Google created the tech first -- says it doesn't "owe Apple a nickel," let alone the $2.2 billion in damages Apple is seeking.
The Cupertino, Calif., company has argued throughout the trial that the case is not about Google and that Samsung copied Apple out of desperation.
Closing arguments in the patent-infringement case between the world's two largest smartphone makers will take place Tuesday. Then it's up to the eight-person jury in the San Jose, Calif. federal court to decide who prevails.
An Apple attorney says during opening arguments that it's targeting Samsung for litigation because it's Samsung that chose to put the infringing features in its devices, not Google.