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Friday May 10, 2013
WHAT an emotional roller coaster ride the 13th general election has been.
On the eve of polling, and indeed on polling day itself, I was keyed up and excited as I've never felt before any other previous election that I've voted in.
I think I wasn't alone among Malaysians in sensing that it was a momentous occasion, that we stood on the brink of something special and historic.
You see, for the first time in our nation's history, we had a competitive election on our hands, one in which the outcome was widely seen to be too close to call.
When the results were finally announced in the wee hours of Monday morning, it turned out that Barisan Nasional had once again been returned to power, albeit with a reduced majority.
This would have come as a relief to some and shock or disappointment to others, not least those who had predicted that Barisan would sweep to a two-thirds majority in Parliament and those who had dreamed of a Pakatan Rakyat victory.
Nevertheless, although there was no change in government, the fact that there was a chance of that happening is, I believe, a significant development for democracy in Malaysia.
For the past 56 years since independence (50 for Sarawak and Sabah), there has never been a change in power at Federal level.
For every Malaysian, the Alliance and later Barisan government is all we have ever known.
The previous 12 elections hardly did anything to challenge the status quo; in fact, you could predict a Barisan victory beforehand everytime. But GE13 was different. A strong challenge from Pakatan, coupled with a better educated, more demanding urban electorate, meant that the opposition had a fighting chance which they didn't have before.
The upshot is that no coalition should be able to take victory for granted, just as they should no longer take voters for granted.
Instead, they will have to work hard at winning over and maintaining support by coming up with better policies, plans and vision for the nation, which can only be good for democracy in the long run.
Regardless of the outcome, we did make history by turning out in record numbers to vote last Sunday. The final turnout was 84.84% or 12,992,661 out of 13.3 million registered voters, the highest ever in any election.
That's how many of us cared to make our voice heard at the ballot box.
It shows that many, many Malaysians care about what's happening in our country, who want to participate in the democratic process of choosing our representatives and have a say in what kind of government we want.
Again, this provides hope for the future that we will not be apathetic but remain interested and involved in politics, because the power to decide the government lies in our hands.
Of course, it goes without saying that we need to exercise this power with all due wisdom and consideration.
The election results will need much in-depth analysis for us to understand the dynamics of Malaysia's political landscape.
It's therefore extremely disheartening and disturbing to see the outcome being blamed along racial lines and all the racist remarks this has engendered.
Much has already been said about how this is a wrong interpretation of the results and that many socioeconomic and geographic factors were involved.
Indeed, if any kind of divide was indicated by the results, it was an urban-rural one, with urban areas and cities largely going to Pakatan while rural constituencies remained with Barisan.
Both sides need to acknowledge and address this for the next election.
Moreover, what the results show is an urgent need for electoral reform.
I'm not talking about indelible ink or the allegations of phantom voters and missing or extra ballot boxes.
No, it's much more fundamental than that.
We can no longer ignore the fact that our parliamentary constituencies are grossly disproportionate, which in turn means that the playing field is not level. You just have to look at the popular vote to realise this. At parliamentary level, Barisan won 5,237,699 votes in total compared to 5,623,984 for Pakatan.
In other words, Barisan lost the popular vote, 47.38% to Pakatan's 50.87%. Yet it was able to form the government with 60% of the seats.
The reason for this is the massive discrepancy in the size of parliamentary constituencies. The biggest constituency in the country is Kapar with 144,159 voters.
That's nine times the size of Putrajaya, the smallest, which has only 15,791 voters. Here's another example that's closer to home.
In Sarawak, the lowest number of votes needed to win a seat was 8,046 by Barisan's Aaron Ago Dagang in Kanowit.
In contrast, DAP's Julian Tan polled 41,663 votes for victory in Stampin — enough to win Kanowit five times over.
Electoral reform has to begin with redelineating the constituencies to be more proportionate in terms of voter numbers.
Only then will the playing field be more level and the overall results of elections a more accurate reflection of the will of the majority.
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The Warrensburg Community Band, under the direction of Dr. Russell Coleman, will perform their fifth of six summer concerts at 7:30 p.m. Monday on the east steps of the Johnson County Courthouse in Warrensburg.
Admission is free.
The concert will feature four guest conductors from within the personnel of the band � Pat Setser (bass clarinet), currently the associate conductor of the Kansas City Wind Symphony and retired band director and music coordinator from Winnetonka High School and the North Kansas City School District; Stephanie Sekelsky (percussion section), currently director of bands at Warrensburg High School; David Robinson (trumpet), currently worship pastor at Grover Park Baptist Church and recently retired band director from Knob Noster public schools; and Chuck Appleton (trumpet), currently a road representative for Palen Music and retired band director from Warrensburg High School.
The concert will feature a wide variety of music, including �Jolly Robbers,� �All Things Bright and Beautiful,� �Within These Hallowed Halls� (with narration by Dr. Conan Castle), �Blue Goose Rag,� �A Percy Grainger Suite,� �Brass on Broadway,� �Honey Boys on Parade� and �What a Wonderful World.�


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Oil price movements and GDP growth in GCC countries: is the relationship symmetric?
This paper examines whether oil price movements in one group of oil-exporting countries, namely those of the Gulf Cooperation Council, produce asymmetric effects on GDP growth as is commonly found with oil-importing countries. The paper employs a SUR model regressing annual growth rates against positive and negative changes in oil prices. Some evidence on the presence of asymmetries surfaces but is not overwhelming and is country specific.
JEL Classification: O13, O53
Keywords: Oil, Economic Growth, Asymmetric
No one doubts the importance of oil for the petroleum exporters of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Nevertheless, questions do arise regarding magnitudes. How much does GDP growth increase following a rise in oil prices? Moreover, might oil price increases produce effects on growth differing in magnitude from oil price decreases? That is, is the relationship between the two asymmetric or are the effects of oil price declines simply the reverse of oil price increases? To our knowledge, there is no paper which investigates whether the relationship between oil price changes and GDP growth is symmetric or not for oil exporting countries.
Such an investigation is important for three reasons. For one, most studies examining the effects of oil price changes in oil-exporting countries implicitly assume a symmetric relationship. But if the relationship is asymmetric, then many of the inferences drawn from these studies could be skewed and so would need to be re-evaluated. Better understanding whether an asymmetry exists can also help guide policy. For example, if oil price movements have symmetric effects on GDP growth, then an x% decrease in oil prices followed by an x% increase has the same net effect on GDP growth as a constant oil price over the two periods. Thus, undergoing a mean preserving spread in the variance of oil price changes becomes less of a concern. But if effects are asymmetric, then changes in the variance become more of a concern, especially if negative changes in oil prices produce larger effects on the growth rate. To the extent that macroeconomic policy in these countries attempts to lower economic volatility due to oil price swings, then an asymmetric relationship would require that policy responses also be asymmetric.
Finally, several studies stemming from Hamilton (1983) have examined whether changes in oil prices produce asymmetric effects in oil-importing countries. (1) Some argue that changes in oil prices produce asymmetric effects on gasoline prices and this could be one channel as to why oil price movements produce asymmetric effects on output. (2) Others claim that monetary policy responds differently to oil price increases than to oil price decreases and this is the reason for the asymmetry. (3) Still others argue that oil price increases create sectoral imbalances and so cause greater adjustment costs than do oil price decreases. (4) A last group claims that oil price increases create greater uncertainty and this uncertainty worsens macroeconomic outcomes (5) But regardless of the specific reason, most (albeit not all) researchers examining oil-importing countries have found an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and GDP growth. A finding of asymmetry for oil exporting countries would suggest that these countries face similar (although opposite) dynamics as do oil-importers. On the other hand, a finding of symmetry would suggest that the relationship between oil prices and GDP growth in oil-exporting countries is not the mirror opposite of that between oil prices and GDP growth in oil-importing ones. Instead, oil exporting economies would face different qualitative dynamics following oil price shocks.
This study examines this issue for three countries in the Middle East, namely three of the six countries of the GCC: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the period 1964-2003. (6) Table 1 provides some summary statistics of oil production in these three countries. We focus attention on these countries because their similar histories and geographic proximity allow for a more homogeneous sample and so one that does not require as many controls in the empirical specification. (7) Moreover, these countries participate in a common economic union and so a specific analysis of this union seems warranted.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses why asymmetries could be present in oil-exporting countries. Section 3 presents the empirical methodology and section 4 presents the results. Section 5 discusses implications and concludes the paper.
A priori, reasons exist not only for an asymmetry but for it to go in either direction. As in oil-importing countries, sectoral imbalances could arise from unfavorable oil price movements (decreases in the case of oil-exporting countries) that could cause costly reallocations of resources. One potential difference, however, is that the GCC economies, on the whole, are not as diversified as many oil-importing ones and so sectoral reallocations are less possible. The presence of borrowing constraints could also exacerbate effects of oil price decreases more so than oil price increases and so produce a negative asymmetry. For example, agents could both consume and save additional income stemming from oil price increases but, if savings levels are insufficient, only cut consumption following oil price decreases. If so, then the change in aggregate demand is greater following oil price decreases than after oil price increases.
However, a positive asymmetry could also arise due to movements in aggregate demand. Levels of government expenditure in these countries are largely determined by the amount of oil revenue. If governments find it politically easier to raise spending after increases in revenue than to reduce spending following decreases in revenue, then an asymmetry could go in the other direction in which positive oil price changes produce larger effects.
Of course, all of these effects could be small in magnitude or, if large, could offset one another. In either case, oil price movements would not have asymmetric affects on output and so, unlike for oil-importing countries, not skew effects on growth in one direction versus the other.
An unbalanced panel dataset is considered for these three GCC countries over the period 1964-2003. Table 2 presents oil price changes during this period. An advantage of using this time period is that positive (17) and negative (23) changes are both prevalent. There were 21 changes exceeding 10% in magnitude and 19 below this threshold. Moreover, 13 of these large changes were positive and 8 were negative. Thus, the sample is not overly skewed towards one type of change versus another. The dependent variable is the annual growth rate of real GDP, [y.sub.ti], where t denotes the year and i denotes the country.
A fixed effects model is employed where a separate intercept is used for each country. Thus, all time-invariant factors for growth in a country are implicitly captured. Later tests will also be conducted to determine if other coefficients in the specification are identical across countries and to determine if serial correlation is present in the residuals. Finally, the models are estimated-using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique so as to account for correlated disturbances across residuals.
The baseline specification comes from Mork (1989) who examines the effect of oil price percentage changes ([p.sub.t]) in oil-importing countries. Mork separates oil price movements into positive ([p.sub.t.sup.+]) and negative ([p.sub.t.sup.-]) percentage changes (where [p.sub.t.sup.+] = [p.sub.t] when [p.sub.t] > 0 and [p.sub.t.sup.+] = 0 when [p.sub.t] [less than or equal to] 0 and where [p.sub.t.sup.-] = [p.sub.t] when [p.sub.t] < 0 and [p.sub.t.sup.-] = 0 when [p.sub.t] [greater than or equal to] 0). The model is:
[y.sub.ti] = [a.sub.i] + [bi][p.sub.t-1.sup.+] + [c.sub.i][p.sub.t-1.sup.-] + [d.sub.i][y.sub.t-1,i] + [e.sub.ti] (1)
where e denotes the unobservable and where y denotes the growth rate of GDP. We allow for a different set of coefficients for each country and will later test for common coefficients. The null hypothesis of symmetry is that b = c. The lag of the growth rate is also included to capture persistent effects on growth from the previous year. We consider lagged oil price changes to diminish problems of reverse causality as economic performance could influence supplies of oil and so world prices. Given that (1) includes the lagged growth rate, [y.sub.t-1], the coefficients b and c solely capture direct effects of lagged changes in oil prices on current growth and not indirect effects through the past growth rate. In other specifications, we remove lagged growth from (1) by setting d to zero. Although this exclusion does not allow us to control for persistent influences on growth, it does allow for the coefficients b and c to capture the total effect of lagged oil price changes on growth.
The model in (1) is simple in that many other variables are excluded (although, as stated above, the fixed effect captures all time invariant factors), more so than in Mork (1989). Their exclusion stems from two reasons. For one, other factors such as monetary policy are less important for these countries than for the U.S. Second, they are potentially endogenous. For example, given that oil prices affect oil revenue which determines government expenditure, including government spending in the model would mask some of the effect that oil prices have on GDP growth rates. Given that we are interested in capturing the total effect from oil price movements to determine if any asymmetry is present, we find this disadvantage of including such variables to outweigh the advantages. However, including the past growth rate in (1) helps implicitly capture persistent effects on the growth rate. (8)
An implicit assumption in (1) is that oil prices have linear effects on output growth. To account for possible nonlinear effects, the lags of two dummy variables will be added to (1) which divides oil price movements into "small" and "large" ones. For the first dummy, let [j.sub.t] = 1 when [p.sub.t] > 10% and zero otherwise. And for the second, let [k.sub.t] = 1 when [p.sub.t] < -10% and zero otherwise. Thus, the first dummy takes the value one in the presence of a large positive change to oil prices and the second dummy equals one when a large negative oil price movement occurs. Inclusion of these dummies allows for the possibility of small changes to have essentially zero effect on output growth whereas large changes can have sizable influences should the coefficients on these dummies be large in magnitude. The null hypothesis of symmetry is that the coefficients for the lags of these dummy variables are oppositely signed but are equal in magnitude. Admittedly, ten percent is an arbitrary threshold. Given the distribution of oil price changes in table 2, a 10%+ change of magnitude happens roughly 50% of the time. Thus, such changes are not mere outliers but do not dominate the sample either.
The final specification follows Hamilton (1996) who allows for "unusual" oil price movements to have distinct effects on growth. Analogous to his variable (which accounts for unusual oil price increases), we define: [ep.sub.t] = min{0, [P.sub.t] - min ([P.sub.t-1], [P.sub.t-2], [P.sub.t- a])} where [P.sub.t] denotes the oil price level in year t and ep denotes an unusual oil price decrease. ep equals zero unless the current year's average oil price is lower than the average oil price in any of the most recent three years in which case ep equals the difference between the current average price and the previous minimum average of the last three years. The assumption is that such a low price lies outside the recent norm. The variable ep is then added to (1) and a significant coefficient would indicate that these unusual price decreases have different effects on growth than do other downward movements.
GDP growth data comes from the World Bank's World Development Indicators and is adjusted for inflation. Oil price data comes from OPEC and is also adjusted for inflation using consumer price indices of modified Geneva I countries and the USA. (9) The price data comes from an index where 1973 = 100. The change for year t is calculated as the percentage difference in the year t+1 January average and the year t January average. Until 1981, the price of Arabian light is used to capture the price of oil and then the OPEC spot reference basket price is used afterwards.
Before estimating a fixed effects model, we consider each of the three countries separately. The results are presented in Table 3. Evidence of serial correlation within the residual is weak except for Saudi Arabia (without including the lagged growth rate) where we correct for serial correlation using an AR(2) structure for the residual. The other specifications were not adjusted for serial correlation.
To put the coefficients on the oil price variables into perspective, consider a hypothetical coefficient of 0.1 for [p.sup.+] which is not unrealistic given the individual country coefficients in the table. Such a magnitude indicates that a 10% increase in the price of oil raises GDP growth by one percentage point. Similarly, a coefficient of 0.1 for p would indicate that a 10% decrease in the price of oil lowers growth by one percentage point. Given the obvious importance of oil for these economies, we find these coefficient estimates reasonable.
For Kuwait, neither positive nor negative lagged changes in oil prices are strongly correlated with growth. The null hypothesis of symmetry is not rejected. For Saudi Arabia, the null hypothesis of symmetry is rejected for the simpler specification but not once we include lagged growth. The coefficient b is significantly positive indicating that positive oil changes increase growth. The negative values for c indicate that even negative changes are still positively associated with growth although the higher standard errors considerably temper this inference. The largest values of b and c occur for the UAE where negative oil price changes greatly lower growth. The null hypothesis of symmetry is rejected under the simpler specification but not when including the lagged growth rate. (10)
For the specifications in Table 3, we examine the possibility of using a panel data set so as to estimate the equations jointly but where b, c, and (when relevant) d are identical across countries. However, F-statistics from specification tests reject the null of the restricted model (common coefficients) versus the alternative of differing coefficients across countries. Hence, we continue to employ separate coefficients. But we estimate (1) by SUR since common shocks to the region could cause the respective residuals to be correlated. Estimating (1) by OLS presents similar findings.
The first two columns of Table 4 repeat the above regressions except using a SUR model. Findings coincide with those above. The next two columns add the lags of the j and k dummies which take the value one for large positive or negative changes in oil prices. Evidence of nonlinearities exists for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE although only for the latter is evidence of asymmetries present. Positive oil changes now have stronger effects than negative ones and contrast earlier findings. Hence, small negative changes in oil prices seem to matter more for growth than do small positive changes, at least for the UAE and perhaps Saudi Arabia. However, no strong evidence arises of nonlinear asymmetries stemming from large changes to oil prices. (11)
The last two columns of Table 4 add the ep variable but its coefficient is never significant in any of the three countries. There is no evidence that unusual downward changes in oil prices have additional adverse effects on growth.
Much past research has found an asymmetric effect between oil price movements and GDP growth in oil-importing countries. Our findings for oil-exporting countries are mixed and we find no general evidence of asymmetries. To the extent that asymmetries are not present, this then suggests that the effects of oil price movements on GDP growth rates are not only opposite but qualitatively differ between oil exporters and importers. One possible reason is that oil production and sales for these GCC countries comprise larger relative shares of their economies than does oil consumption and imports for most, if not all, oil-importing countries. If the reason for asymmetries in oil-importing countries is due to sectoral adjustments, then such effects might not exist in countries where one sector dominates the economy and so provides one possible explanation for differences between the two sets of countries.
An implication is that these oil-exporters might, consequently, be less concerned about oil price stability than are oil-importing countries. For example, under symmetry a large increase followed by a decrease in oil price of similar magnitude will have similar net effects on growth as a constant oil price. Although there could be other reasons why oil-exporters would prefer more stable prices, this study finds no strong evidence that these GCC countries see GDP growth rates fall on average due to oil price instability.
Moreover, the results also suggest that policy makers to the extent that they want to stabilize GDP growth rates need not be more aggressive following oil price decreases than after oil price increases. Monetary and fiscal policies can be similar in magnitude (although, of course, opposite in direction).
Finally, to the extent that borrowing constraints would exacerbate effects from negative income shocks, then this study does not find strong evidence that these constraints are binding for these GCC countries.
However, the UAE could be an important exception in that negative changes in oil prices have bigger effects than do positive changes. To this extent, the UAE would prefer to see more stable oil prices and so could lead to different preferences over policy within GCC and, more generally, OPEC countries.
Aizenman, J. and Marion N. (1993), "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Private Investment," Economics Letters 41, 207-210.
Aizenman, J. and Marion, N. (1999), "Volatility and Investment: evidence from developing Countries," Economica 66, 157-179.
AlGudhea, S. (2003), "Essays on the Behavior of the Oil Market and OPEC," Dissertation, Southern Illinois University at Carbondale, Department of Economics.
Bacon, R. (1991), "Rockets and Feathers: the Asymmetric Speed of Adjustment of UK Retail Gasoline prices to Cost Changes," Energy Economics 13, 211-18.
Ball, L. and Mankiw, G. (1994), "Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Economic Fluctuations," Economic Journal 104, 247-261.
Bernanke, B. (1983), "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," Quarterly Journal of Economics 98, 85-106
Bernanke, B., Gertler, M. and Watson, M. (1997), "Systematric Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1, 91-157.
Bohaha, A. (1988), "An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Colorado Economy Using Vector Autoregression," Review of Regional Studies 8, 23-30.
Borenstein, S., Cameron, A. and Gilbert, R. (1997), "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112, 305-339.
Davis, S. and Haltiwanger, J. (2001), "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Response to Oil Price Changes," Journal of Monetary Economics 48, 465-512.
Davis, S., Loungani, P. and Mahidhara, R. (1997), "Regional Labor Fluctuations: Oil Shocks, Military Spending and Other Driving Forces," International Finance Discussion Paper number 578, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System.
Ferderer, J. (1996), "Oil Price Volatility and the Macroeconomy: A Solution to the Asymmetry Puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics 18, 1-26.
Gardner, T. and Joutz, F. (1996), "Economic Growth, Energy Prices and Technological Innovation," Southern Economic Journal 62, 653-666.
Gately, D. (1993), "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," Energy Journal 14, 163-182.
Gately, D. and Huntington, H. (2002), "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," Energy Journal 23, 19-55.
Griffin, J. and Schulman, C. (2004), "Price Asymmetry: A Proxy for Energy Saving Technical Change?" Working Paper #405, The Bush School of Government & Public Service, Texas A&M University.
Hamilton, J. (1983), "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II," Journal of Political Economy 91, 228-248.
Hamilton, J. (1988), "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy 96, 593-617.
Hamilton, J. (1996), "This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics 38, 215-220.
Hamilton, J. (2000), "What is an Oil Shock?" Journal of Econometrics 113, 363-398.
Hamilton, J. and Herrera, A. (2001), "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper 2001-10, Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego.
Hooker, M. (2002), "Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime," Journal of Money, Credit & Banking 34, 540-561.
Huntington, H. (1998), "Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?" Energy Journal 19, 107-132.
Keane, M. and Prasad, E. (1996), "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis," Review of Economics and Statistics 78, 389-400.
Kirchgassner, G. and Kubler, K. (1992), "Symmetric or Asymmetric Price Adjustments in the Oil Market: An Empirical Analysis of the Relations between International and Domestic Prices in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1972-89," Energy Economics 14, 171-185.
Lee, K., Ni, S. and Ratti, R. (1995), "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: the Role of Price Variability," Energy Journal 16, 39-56.
Lilien, D. (1982), "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy 90, 777-793.
Loungani, P. (1986), "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," Review of Economics and Statistics 68, 536-539.
Mork, K. (1989), "Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, 97, 740-744.
Mory, J. (1993), "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?" Energy Journal 14, 151-161.
Mork, K., Olsen, O. and Mysen, T. (1994), "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," Energy Journal 15, 19-35.
Pindyck, R. (1991), "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature 29, 1110-1148.
Sadorsky, P. (1999), "Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Activity," Energy Economics 21, 449-469.
Tatom, J. (1987), "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Recent Fall in Oil Prices," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 69, 34-45.
Tatom, J. (1988), "Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Changes Symmetric?" Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 28, 325-368.
Tatom, J. (1993), "Are There Useful Lessons from the 1990-1991 Oil Price Shock?" Energy Journal 14, 129-150.
(1.) See Tatom (1987) Mork (1989), Gately (1993), Mory (1993), Mork et al. (1994), Lee et al. (1995), Federer (1996), Gardner and Joutz (1996), Sadorsky (1999), Davis and Haltiwanger (2001), Griffin and Schulman (2004), Gately and Huntington (2002) for contributions to this literature.
(2.) See Bacon (1991), Kirchgassner and Kubler (1992), Borensteirn et al. (1997), Huntington (1998), and Algudhea (2003) for findings for and against this hypothesis.
(3.) See Tatom (1988, 1993) Bernanke et al. (1997), Hamilton and Herrera (2001), and Hooker (2002).
(4.) See Lilien (1982), Loungani (1986), Bohaha (1988), Hamilton (1988), Ball and Mankiw (1994), Keane and Prasad (1996), and Davis et al. (1997) for further details.
(5.) See Bernanke (1983), Pindyck (1991), Aizeman and Marion (1993, 1999), and Hamilton (2000).
(6.) Six countries comprise the GCC. However, data for Qatar is not available and data for Bahrain is only available after 1980. Data for Oman is available but Oman produces less oil both absolutely and relative to GDP than do the remaining three countries. Oman is also not a member of OPEC. When Oman was considered, no asymmetric effects were found. An additional reason to focus on Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE is that these comprise three of the seven top oil exporters in the world.
(7.) As counterexamples, OPEC contains less similar countries such as Venezuela and Nigeria. Moreover, Russia, another large oil-exporter, underwent tremendous transition during the 1990's and so including it in the sample does not seem appropriate.
(8.) Including the lag of the dummy variable, d73, in (1) which equals one in 1973 and zero otherwise so as to capture the extreme increase in oil prices during this year, 208%, did not change the results. In addition, growth data is missing for Kuwait for 1990-1992. Therefore, we do not make any adjustment for the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait during this time.
(9.) Using oil price data that is also adjusted for exchange rate changes using the Geneva I and USA basket of currencies versus a basket of currencies using merchandise imports from OPEC countries as weights did not change the findings.
(10.) We also examined estimations where oil price changes were not split between positive and negative ones but where GDP growth was regressed against lagged oil price changes with or without the lagged growth rate. Lagged oil price changes were significantly correlated with GDP growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE but not so for Kuwait, suggesting that oil price changes have mattered more for the former countries, at least in the short run.
(11.) We also examined the presence of nonlinearities by including the squares of p+ and p- but continued not to find strong evidence of asymmetry.
Saudi Arabia Monetary Agency, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Southern Illinois University, Carbondale
Table 1 Average Daily Oil Production Remaining GCC Year Kuwait Saudi UAE countries * Oil production as a percent of OPEC production 1960-70 15.64 15.82 1.92 -- 1971-80 8.53 22.23 5.71 -- 1981-90 6.50 28.31 7.51 -- 1991-00 6.56 31.12 8.61 -- 2001-04 7.49 29.79 8.10 -- Oil production as a percent of total world oil production 1960-70 7.34 7.45 0.92 0.96 1971-80 4.35 11.35 2.91 1.10 1981-90 2.24 9.78 2.60 0.95 1991-00 2.73 12.95 3.58 1.12 2001-04 3.06 12.16 3.30 1.46 Source: Energy Information Administration (www.eia.doe.gov) * Bahrain and Oman are not members of OPEC. Table 2 Changes in Real Oil Prices Year % Change 1960 -5.45% 1961 -3.32% 1962 -3.62% 1963 -3.11% 1964 -3.75% 1965 -3.50% 1966 -1.68% 1967 -3.61% 1968 -4.28% 1969 -5.17% 1970 15.43% 1971 7.24% 1972 22.67% 1973 207.74% 1974 -10.90% 1975 -2.26% 1976 -2.07% 1977 -4.67% 1978 23.80% 1979 46.96% 1980 2.06% 1981 -8.52% 1982 -15.94% 1983 -8.52% 1984 -9.19% 1985 -51.46% 1986 26.77% 1987 -22.48% 1988 15.63% 1989 21.58% 1990 -19.92% 1991 -4.75% 1992 -14.24% 1993 -7.59% 1994 5.25% 1995 17.17% 1996 -9.92% 1997 -35.41% 1998 40.23% 1999 54.10% 2000 -18.12% 2001 3.42% 2002 12.80% 2003 25.47% 2004 37.24% Table 3 Separate Least Squares Regressions Country Variable Coeff. Kuwait Kuwait S. Arab. (a) Intercept a 3.817 * 2.944 2.614 (2.182) (2.078) (4.009) lag of [p.sup.+] b -0.069 -0.062 0.071 ** (0.050) (0.045) (0.027) lag of [p.sup.-] c -0.017 0.024 -0.118 (0.113) (0.151) (0.081) [y.sub.t-l,i] d 0.093 (0.162) P-Values from following tests Serial Correlation (b) 0.997 0.42 0.27 (c) Wald test of b = c 0.77 0.61 0.04 # of observations 38 36 33 Country Variable S. Arab. UAE UAE Intercept 1.249 8.576 5.630 ** (1.730) (1.902) (2.322) lag of [p.sup.+] 0.061 * 0.051 0.231 ** (0.035) (0.036) (0.094) lag of [p.sup.-] -0.025 0.492 *** 0.374 *** (0.109) (0.121) (0.124) [y.sub.t-l,I] 0.556 *** 0.191 (0.148) (0.135) P-Values from following tests Serial Correlation (b) 0.33 0.54 0.61 Wald test of b = c 0.48 0.001 0.44 # of observations 34 29 28 Standard Errors in parentheses (a) After including an AR(2) error specification (b) Breusch-Godfrey test for no serial correlation up to 2 lags (c] Without AR(2) error specification, p-value is 0.0006 ***, **, * denotes significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively Table 4 SUR Results (1) (2) (3) Kuwait intercept 3.830 * 3.428 * 2.556 (2.091) (1.931) (2.423) lag of [p.sup.+] -0.067 -0.064 -0.098 * (0.048) (0.042) (0.055) lag of [p.sup.-] -0.020 0.046 0.026 (0.158) (0.142) (0.257) [y.sub.t-1] 0.026 (0.148) lag of j 4.466 (4.485) lag of k 3.387 (6.694) lag of ep p-values Wald tests b = c 0.79 0.48 0.64 r = s 0.33 # of obs. 38 36 38 S. Arabia (a) intercept 3.384 1.625 2.168 (3.436) (1.597) (3.524) lag of [p.sup.+] 0.073 *** 0.060 * 0.056 ** (0.024) (0.031) (0.028) lag of [p.sup.-] -0.089 -0.011 -0.161 (0.076) (0.101) (0.138) [y.sub.t-1] 0.544 ** (0.132) lag of j 2.615 (2.271) lag of k -1.528 (3.306) lag of ep p-values Wald tests b = c 0.06 0.52 0.11 r = s 0.78 # of obs. 33 34 33 UAE intercept 9.254 *** 5.768 *** 6.181 *** (1.777) (2.061) (1.936) lag of [p.sup.+] 0.056 0.220 *** 0.005 (0.034) (0.092) (0.036) lag of [p.sup.-] 0.508 *** 0.408 *** 0.517 *** (0.113) (0.112) (0.162) [y.sub.t-1] 0.253 ** (0.117) lag of j 8.538 ** (3.290) lag of k 4.086 (4.158) lag of ep p-values Wald tests b = c 0.0004 0.25 0.002 r = s 0.02 # of obs. 29 28 29 (4) (5) (6) Kuwait intercept 1.630 2.900 2.723 (2.190) (2.239) (1.957) lag of [p.sup.+] -0.099 ** -0.063 -0.065 (0.047) (0.047) (0.040) lag of [p.sup.-] -0.222 -0.025 0.054 (0.233) (0.156) (0.138) [y.sub.t-1] -0.002 -0.069 (0.148) (0.152) lag of j 5.629 (3.897) lag of k -7.005 (6.495) lag of ep -0.219 -0.248 (0.183) (0.169) p-values Wald tests b = c 0.60 0.83 0.44 r = s 0.85 # of obs. 36 37 36 S. Arabia (a) intercept 0.166 4.516 2.476 (1.969) (3.148) (1.659) lag of [p.sup.+] 0.038 0.072 *** 0.060 * (0.035) (0.023) (0.030) lag of [p.sup.-] -0.182 -0.053 -0.002 (0.170) (0.077) (0.099) [y.sub.t-1] 0.594 *** 0.520 *** (0.134) (0.130) lag of j 3.235 (2.850) lag of k -3.722 (4.184) lag of ep 0.209 ** 0.159 (0.100) (0.116) p-values Wald tests b = c 0.19 0.14 0.57 r = s 0.92 # of obs. 34 33 34 UAE intercept 3.962 *** 10.043 *** 5.723 ** (2.089) (1.847) (2.404) lag of [p.sup.+] -0.003 0.054 0.219 *** (0.147) (0.033) (0.081) lag of [p.sup.-] 0.400 ** 0.521 *** 0.408 *** (0.162) (0.111) (0.114) [y.sub.t-1] 0.279 ** 0.227 * (0.116) (0.149) lag of j 10.494 * (5.308) lag of k 2.019 (4.012) lag of ep 0.155 -0.008 (0.126) (0.149) p-values Wald tests b = c 0.06 0.0002 0.25 r = s 0.06 # of obs. 28 29 28 Standard Errors in parentheses (a) Regressions without lagged growth employ an AR(2) error specification b and c denote the coefficients on [p.sup.+] and [p.sup.-], respectively. r and s denote the coefficients on j and k, respectively. ***, **, * denotes significance at 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively
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Kim Williams, CD for HBO and Tyler Perry, on Casting Minorities
Long before Mo'Nique won the Academy Award for her supporting role in "Precious," casting director Kim Williams gave the comedian her first film role.
Kim Williams, CD for HBO and Tyler Perry, on Casting Minorities
Long before Mo'Nique won the Academy Award for her supporting role in "Precious," casting director Kim Williams gave the comedian her first film role.
1 Piece of Advice for Actors Looking to Produce Their Own Work
Professor Andrew Shea has worked in theater, film, and television all over the country, and is now teaching production at the University of Texas at Austin.
Sheila Jaffe Reminds Actors to Thank Their CD
How the manager of a restaurant became the Artios- and Emmy Award-winning casting director of "The Sopranos," "Entourage," and dozens of feature films.
3 Things to Remember When Producing Your Own Content
Ondine Landa Abramson, president–executive producer of the newest merging of the theater community and Web, Stage17, gives advice about starting to make your own content, the perks of its new website, and its plans for the future of theater in the digital space.
Jen Rudin Spills the Secrets of Auditioning in 'Confessions of a Casting Director'
Child actor-turned-casting director Jen Rudin (formerly a Disney casting executive) is adding author to her credits with "Confessions of a Casting Director."
CD Jennifer Euston Found Her True Calling at an Open Call
How a shy little girl with a love of TV and movies became an Emmy and Artios-winning casting director for shows such as HBO's "Girls" and "The Pacific."
Theater Expert Robert Cohen's 4 Tips for Getting Onstage
The author, professor, and theater director talks to Backstage about his journey to the stage, his new memoir "Falling Into Theatre...and Finding Myself," and how he got ahead in the business.
Telsey + Company Casting Director David Vaccari Likes Complexity
David Vaccari, who cast "Friends With Kids" and "Pieces of April," looks for more than just a pretty face.
The Secret to Calleri Casting's Success
The trio behind Calleri Casting—James Calleri, Paul Davis, and Erica Jensen—share the secret to their success, what actors should know about auditioning, and the toughest part of their job.
Dr. Melin Tan-Geller, a former pianist and now Montefiore Medical Center's assistant professor of otorhinolaryngology—vocal care—chats about what singers can do to preserve and care for their voices, dispels myths surrounding steroid use, and lists the one thing many performers don't know.


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I try to compare two file with two different distribution of numbers. So i have random1.dat and random2.dat each one are vectors of more then 1000 rows. I saw from this question Doing a chi-square independence test in Mathematica that is it possible to make the comparison with Chi-square or Poisson but they attach the two files.
How can i do that if my files are so long (or longer then 1000 rows)?
Here my files:
http://www.filedropper.com/random1_1: random1.dat http://www.filedropper.com/random2 : random2.dat
Than I like, having in the same directory for instance 100 of this different files: random*.dat to compare all of them with a particular one (for instance random1.dat) is that possible in Mathematica?
Thanks a lot !


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Online edition of India's National Newspaper
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HYDERABAD: The Hyderabad Urban Development Authority's Green Hyderabad Environment Programme (GHEP) is in safe hands, that of women groups who are the stakeholders.
And what more, block plantations taken up by HUDA in degraded reserve forest areas, waste lands etc., for increasing the green cover to act as `Carbon Sink' for absorbing hazardous gases, will give handsome yields to the groups.
A variety of plant species including `Kanuga'(botanical name - Pongamia Pinnata), a bio-diesel yielding tree, bamboo, tamarind, `Usiri', `Vippa' and fruit-yielding varieties like Sitaphal are already thriving across 5,100 hectares of block plantations. The women groups, along with HUDA, will be part of a tripartite agreement with the Chennai-based Southern Online Group to set up a bio-diesel plant at Choutuppal in Nalgonda district, discloses HUDA's Urban Forestry Executive Director, K.S. Reddy. The Pongamia plantations will be attached to women's groups for collection of pods. A tree of 7 to 10 years age will yield about 5 kg of seeds that in turn could be converted into one litre of diesel priced at Rs. 32.
Sale of seed
Even if one kg of seed is sold at Rs. 5, each tree will give Rs. 25 worth seed and there are over 3-lakh trees. This is the yield from only one species. There are other varieties like bamboo, tamarind, `Usiri' which yield good revenue too in a couple of years.
GHEP, funded by the Netherlands Government, will continue till 2006. But with increasing awareness levels and participatory approach of individuals and stakeholders, the programme is sure to sustain, says Mr. Reddy.
A systematic enumeration of all saplings in the block plantations, row-wise and as per species is recorded in the `Plantation Journal'. The plants are inspected twice a year in June and December to monitor their growth and record the survival rate.
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Which sex is the worst about washing up? Why is it so important? We've got the dirty truth on how and when to wash your hands.
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As of Thursday, February 23, 2012
© Copyright 2015 Clayton News Daily
Short-handed doesn't necessarily mean a short stay in the playoffs.
That's the way the walking wounded at Forest Park, Luella and North Clayton are looking at things as the first round of the state basketball tournament begins this weekend.
At a time when you want have every weapon in your arsenal at your disposal — the state tournament, where defeat sends you home — Southern Crescent teams are dealing with aches and pains. Of course, for all they know, so are their opponents.
Luella's girls make the long journey to Lowndes today minus a point guard and with another guard who is just getting back to full strength. Deft ball-handler Amber Griffin has been out for some time with a leg injury and leading scorer Britney Guy was less than 100 percent until this past week of rest.
North Clayton's boys are hoping Dionte Agard, who played a key role in the Region 4-AAAA championship victory over Jonesboro, has been battling a bad hamstring for weeks as the Eagles prepare to host Dutchtown tonight.
And nobody knows better than Forest Park's girls how to make do without. During the course of the season, the Lady Panthers lost Tiffany Wilson, Kayla Potts and Lisa Pease to injuries and soldiered on. Their superior depth took them to overtime against Jonesboro in the region championship game before foul trouble finished them off.
Forest Park freshmen Breasia McElrath and Kanisha Tharpe gained valuable experience that they might not have received without their teammates' injuries. Are they ready for prime time now?
"I don't think they have a choice," Forest Park coach Steven Cole said. "They were kind of thrust into the spotlight, ready or not. I know it has to be a lot of pressure on them with the kind of team reputation we have in the playoffs."
Though realistically, injuries play a role — they determine, for example, whether a player has to play out of position, whether less talented players spend minutes on the floor that they wouldn't ordinarily get — very few teams use bumps, bruises and tears as an excuse for failure, even when it's readily available.
"I never make excuses as a coach," Luella girls coach Eddie Pratt said Thursday. "We'd like to have all our weapons, but we still have a lot of talent to get the job done. If we play our style of ball, we can beat anybody."
North Clayton coach Martisse Troup, who expects Agard to play tonight, said teams don't like to make excuses out of injuries because that emphasizes individual contributions rather than a group coming together.
"The main thing is, at the end of the day, it's a team thing," Troup said. "It takes a team, a collective effort to win."
In Luella's case, the collective efforts of Guy, LaGhanae Davis, Terri Jacobs and Brianna Moore have helped fill Griffin's void, with Guy and Davis doing the bulk of the ball-handling.
Forest Park's Cole says that rather than using injuries as an excuse, it has been an opportunity to learn toughness — especially for the two freshmen.
"I think our girls have been preparing all year for this," Cole said. "As a coach, if you don't show faith in them, how will they learn? I've got faith in those two girls. If you'd seen us play last year, that was one of the things we thrived on, always being tough and playing to the end. Hopefully, our seniors have left that same legacy with our younger players."
More like this story
- Forest Park girls hold on to trump Lovejoy ( February 16, 2012 )
- Forest Park looking for different cast to lead ( June 19, 2012 )
- Forest Park proving doubters wrong ( March 1, 2012 )
- Same ol' Forest Park? Not quite ( December 13, 2011 )
- Forest Park girls survive test from Luella ( January 27, 2015 )


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An American Dream: The Fatal Gambit For Sutpen And Gatsby
Strohmaier, Sharon Shreve
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SubjectFaulkner, William, 1897-1962--Absalom, Absalom!; Fitzgerald, F. Scott (Francis Scott), 1896-1940-- Great Gatsby
The intention of this thesis is to demonstrate the parallel lines that delineate the characters of Thomas Sutpen from William Faulkner's Absalom, Absalom! and Jay Gatsby from F. Scott Fitzgearald's The Great Gatshy, as men of distinctive American character in fatal pursuit of the American dream. The attainment of that dream, defined as an individual goal of personal success, which is sought in a state of unlimited possibility, which is ultimately expressed in socially acceptable terms, and which can be gained by faithful and arduous pursuit, is the all consuming passion of each character's life. Using the dream-goal and common American character traits as a basis for comparison, ten parallels between the lives of Sutpen and Gatsby are explored through close analysis of the texts of the novels. These parallels include (1) insignificant beginnings and lack of family ties; (2) lack of formal education and the resultant reliance on self-education; (3) self-creation of one's own personality; (4) self-discipline and the use of a timetable in pursuit of the dream; (5) the accumulation of wealth as a secondary but integral part of the dream-goal; (6) "shady" methods and manipulations to obtain wealth; (7) qualified success after achieving wealth; (8) attempts at social respectability and acceptability although remaining essentially "outsiders;" (9) over-simplification of reality leading to ill-founded assumptions of success; and (10) the failure to ultimately achieve the dream goal. The discussion attempts to demonstrate not only that Sutpen and Gatsby are parallel literary figures, but also that the undeviating pursuit of the American dream-goal is a fatal process for the dreamer who fails to recognize the difference between the ideal and the real, the spiritual and the material, aspects of the dream. This dream quest carries perilous consequences for the dreamer who ignores the responsibilities inherent in human relationships. However, the dream, which is part of America's national heritage, also holds the promise that to fail magnificently is also a feat, one which both Sutpen and Gatsby achieve.
114 leaves. Advisor: Dr. Stuart Burns
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Can you believe we are almost to the end of 2013? I find it interesting that as each of us gains additional experience in life, the majority will use that information to become better citizens.
Here at your Chamber, we had a remarkable year simply because we were privileged to meet so many wonderful, interesting visitors.
Have you ever considered what it is like here at your Chamber when visitors walk through our door?
We have become accustomed to the fact that every visitor has something to offer. Some are very chatty from the beginning, while others might require questions from us. However, in the end, our friendliness wins them over and we form many great relationships. So, we are especially thankful for our visitors.
As our country continues to struggle with a slow economy, here in Newberry, the number of empty stores has dwindled, which has not gone unnoticed by our visitors. Our guests are spending money which allows businesses to reinvest, offering additional items on their shelves, in turn offering more choices for customers. So, we are especially thankful for our local businesses.
We simply cannot overlook the other businesses whose products are responsible for bringing so many guests to our county; our world acclaimed Newberry Opera House, Carter and Holmes Orchids farm, Enoree River Winery, Newberry College and Piedmont Technical College, our local hotels, as well as some of the best restaurants in the state. We simply could not be what we are without you, so we are also very thankful for our major attractions.
Here at your Chamber, we must tell you, if it were not for your continued financial support, information about the above attractions would not be readily available. It is because of you that we are able to keep the doors to the visitors center open. It is because you choose to be a part of the Chamber's member supporting members idea that helps keep local stores open. It is also because you choose to support our local establishments that Newberry is growing during challenging moments in history.
So, as we blast into 2014, please know how deeply we appreciate you and the high level of support you bring to this Chamber. If we are not living up to your expectations, please let us know. We value your input. It is our desire to continuously improve and we simply cannot do this without you.
So, from Liz, Michelle, and me, we wish you the merriest Christmas holiday and a wonderfully, prosperous 2014. For you we are extremely thankful!


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OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — More earthquakes have rocked Oklahoma.
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Highest Mountain Handbook
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A mountain is a large landform that stretches above the surrounding land in a limited area usually in the form of a peak. A mountain is generally steeper than a hill. Mountains are formed through tectonic forces or volcanism. These forces can locally raise the surface of the earth by over 10,000 feet (3,000 m). Mountains erode slowly through the action of rivers, weather conditions, and glaciers. A few mountains are isolated summits, but most occur in huge mountain ranges.
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Dec 7, 2012A haunting piece of fact-based Southern Gothic free of histrionics, Sahkanaga is a thoughtful, atmospherically heavy study of reactions to an inexplicably inhumane act.
Dec 10, 2012What Summerour doesn't capture as well are the panic and emotional upheaval that Paul's poems and tentative interactions with Lyla only hint at - one of the reasons the film feels flimsy rather than delicate, lacking strong performances or psychological nuance.
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Bill Warner rode his 1000HP
Posted in Motorcycle, One Mile, Videos | Comments
Here is a quick race of a 2012 Nissan GT-R racing heads up vs a BMW M5. The M5 gets the jump but it isn't enough with the GT-R getting to 60 MPH in under 3 seconds. The 2012 GT-R is powered by a V6 Twin Turbo pumping out 530HP vs the M5's 500HP naturally aspirated V10. The race might be closer when the new BMW 5 debuts in a few months sporting a V8 Twin Turbo Motor pushing out 550+ horsepower, although without all wheel drive, the BMW will still be lagging behind with wheel spin.
Posted in BMW, Drag Racing, Nissan, Videos | Comments
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The National Hurricane Center says Alex has weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm as it moves over northeastern Mexico.
The hurricane center in Miami reported early Thursday that the storm had sustained winds of 70 mph (110 kph). It says Alex is expected to weaken as it moves further inland.
It said the government of Mexico has replaced a hurricane warning with a tropical storm warning for the coast from Rio San Fernando to La Cruz. Mexico also discontinued a tropical storm warning on the coast from south of La Cruz to Cabo Rojo and north of Rio San Fernando to the moth of the Rio Grande.
Alex made landfall late Wednesday at Soto La Marina, Mexico.
South Texas avoided the worst of the storm.
The National Weather Service in Brownsville said flash flooding and coastal flooding were a concern through Thursday afternoon.
No injuries were reported in Texas as the system drenched the Rio Grande Valley but spared the state from damage that often accompanies hurricanes.
The Queen Isabella Memorial Causeway, linking South Padre Island to the rest of Texas, remained closed Thursday.


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Learn more about French Connection-Ws/Ronin-Wp:
|In this exclusive 20th Century Fox Double Feature, you will get two masterpieces of action, adventure, and car chases! First, take a ride with Gene Hackman in the 1971 classic The French Connection. Next, watch Robert De Niro take down deadly terrorists in the 1998 thriller, Ronin!
The French Connection: New York City detectives "Popeye" Doyle (Gene Hackman) and Buddy Russo (Roy Scheider) hope to break a narcotics smuggling ring and ultimately uncover The French Connection. But when one of the criminals tries to kill Doyle, he begins a deadly pursuit that takes him far outside the city limits. Based on a true story, this action-filled thriller, with its renowned chase scene, won five Academy Awards in 1971, including Best Picture, Best Director (William Friedkin) and Best Actor for Hackman.
Ronin: In a world where loyalties are easily abandoned and allegiances can be bought, a new and deadlier terrorist threat has emerged - free agent killers! The Cold War may be over, but a new world order keeps a group of covert mercenaries employed by the highest bidder. These operatives, known as Ronin, are assembled in France by a mysterious client for a seemingly routine mission: steal a top-secret briefcase. But the simple task soon proves explosive as other underworld organizations vie for the same prize...and to get the job done, the members of Ronin must do something they've never done before - trust each other!
"[Ronin] ...hard-boiled performances...visceral excitement. Elvis Mitchell, The New York Times
"[French] ...incredible suspense...it includes, among a great many chilling delights, the most brilliantly executed chase sequence I have ever seen. Roger Greenspun, The New York Times
"[French] ...tough, brilliant crime film... TV Guide
Editor's NoteThis double feature presents a pair of action-packed crime-drama classics by two of Hollywood's most veteran directors. William Friedkin's THE FRENCH CONNECTION (1971) is based on the true story of two New York City police detectives (Gene Hackman and Roy Scheider) and their investigation into a French heroin smuggling operation. And in John Frankenheimer's RONIN (1998), a group of former government agents (including Robert De Niro, Jean Reno, and Stellan Skarsgaard) have been hired by the IRA to steal a briefcase containing unknown contents somewhere in Europe. See individual titles for further details.
Cast & Crew
|Fernando Rey
|Gene Hackman
|Jean Reno
|Natascha McElhone
|Robert De Niro
|Roy Scheider
|Sean Bean
|Tony Lo Bianco
|John Frankenheimer - [Ronin] Director
|William Friedkin - [French] Director
Nominee (1999)
|MTV Award, Robert De Niro, Natascha McElhone, [Ronin] Best Action Sequence
Winner (1972)
|Golden Globe, William Friedkin, [French] Best Director - Motion Picture
|Golden Globe, Gene Hackman, [French] Best Motion Picture Actor - Drama
|Golden Globe, The French Connection, [French] Best Motion Picture - Drama
|Oscar, Gene Hackman, [French] Best Actor in a Leading Role
|Oscar, William Friedkin, [French] Best Director
|Oscar, Gerald B. Greenberg, [French] Best Film Editing
|Oscar, Philip D'Antoni, [French] Best Picture
|Oscar, Ernest Tidyman, [French] Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material from Another Medium
Professional Reviews
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The French Connection/Ronin
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97% of ambassadors polled say Bolton undermined UN reform.
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"97% of ambassadors polled say Bolton undermined UN reform."
At Princeton yesterday, New York Times U.N. correspondent Warren Hoge revealed that "of the 33 ambassadors Hoge interviewed for a story" on former U.N. ambassador John Bolton's performance, "all but one felt he had undermined U.N. reform efforts." When Bush appointed Bolton in 2005, U.N. members viewed the move as a "stick in the eye."


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Learn more about 250GB Hard Drive for Xbox 360 Slim (Internal Hard Drive):
The best option for media enthusiasts who game on Xbox 360. Allows you to save game progress, Xbox Live gamer profile & custom soundtracks from your own music collection, Allows users to expand Xbox 360 Slim experience with download content such as demos, movies, television shows from Xbox Live Marketplace.
Customer Reviews of 250GB Hard Drive for Xbox 360 Slim (Internal Hard Drive)
Works, but major caveat6/10/2011
It just dropped right into my Xbox 360 4g model and I thought I was good as gold. It was recognized at boot up, I was able to play various "hard drive only" features of Halo and download some demos. So far, so good. But then I decided to see if I could play some original Xbox games I had lying around. I had heard you needed a hard drive in order to play original Xbox games, that even a big USB thumb drive wouldn't do it - hard drive only. But I figured I was all set. I spent the next day or so trying everything I could to get it to even recognize my Xbox discs, even though they were on the "officially supported" list: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/2552032 It wouldn't even recognize the game disc. Then I came across some folks that said original Xbox games were only supported by an "official" Microsoft Xbox drive. So I went out and bought an official one and the problem immediately went away. So only buy this hard disc if you know you will never ever want to play an original Xbox game.
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Marketplace Guarantee ClaimBuyers should receive Marketplace items in the condition that they were listed. We ask buyers to first contact the seller to give them a chance to address any issues. If the seller does not respond or if the issue is not addressed to the customer's satisfaction buyers can rely on our Rakuten.com Marketplace Guarantee Claim which, covers the first $750 of every purchase... read more
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"Sinning" against the state.
President Woodrow Wilson, acting as pontiff of the American Civil Religion, "expected the nation's clergy to decorate their churches in red, white and blue and to lead their congregation in singing the 'Star-Spangled Banner,'" recounts Vermont historian Mark Bushnell. "The idea was to encourage congregants to buy Liberty Bonds to fund the war. Across the country, clergy members complied. So too in Windsor, except at Waldron's church, where that Sunday's service was no different than ever."
Waldron, comments Bushnell, was "more a pillar of the community than an enemy of the state." But as a theologically conservative Protestant, Waldron could not bring himself to take up a collection on behalf of what he regarded as war carried out on behalf of an increasingly lawless state. To placate the mob, Waldron "wrapped himself in the American flag and sang 'The Star-Spangled Banner,'" continues Bushnell. But this was only the beginning of his sorrows.
In short order, Waldron was removed as pastor, in part because his Pentecostal preaching style was at odds with the Baptist Church's accustomed mode of worship, but also because of lingering suspicions about his "loyalty."
The following December, a federal grand jury indicted Waldron for violating the Espionage Act. Passed the previous June, that act dictated prison terms of up to 20 years for any act or statement perceived as willfully obstructing "the recruiting or enlistment service of the U.S."
The specific charge against Waldron, an admitted Christian pacifist, was that "he had once been heard to say 'to hell with patriotism.'" This was true, he admitted under oath, but the comment had been made about the cultish nationalism promoted by Kaiser Wilhelm's regime in Germany. "If this is patriotism,"
Waldron had told his acquaintances, "to hell with patriotism." Waldron was eventually convicted and sentenced to 15 years in prison, of which he served a little more than a year. He was one of nearly 1,000 Americans sent to prison under the Espionage Act (or the subsequent Sedition Act), and the first to be put on trial solely for his religious beliefs.
Waldron's "crime" was blasphemy against the Almighty State. As historian Richard Gamble documents in his book The War for Righteousness, the "progressive" American clergy of the era "combined a religious faith in progress with a reliance on the state"--and came to view the European War as nothing less than a sacred crusade to democratize the world.
Edward Everett Hale, addressing the 1907 Congress of Religious Liberals in Boston, prophesied that "as the 'United States' is one nation, the united world is to be one empire of the living God." Frederick Lynch, secretary of the Commission on Peace of the Rockefeller-created Federal Council of Churches (now the National Council of Churches), predicted in 1914 that the trend toward political consolidation would bring about a "United Nations of the world." This vision was invoked by many mainline clergy who eagerly enlisted in Wilson's war effort.
Above all else, mainline "progressive" clergy evangelized on behalf of the total state--albeit one devoted to "Christian" objectives. This statist gospel was encapsulated in a poem by William P. Merrill published in the April 26, 1917 issue of Christian Century (just weeks after war was declared on Germany):
The strength of the State we'll lavish on more Than making of wealth and making of war; We are learning at last, though the lesson comes late That the making of man is the task of the State.
What could opposition to such a holy undertaking be, if not blasphemy? Some partisans of the Bush administration and its foreign wars, believing them to be similarly consecrated undertakings, covet a similar opportunity to criminalize dissent by reenacting the Espionage and Sedition Acts. Under those laws, a word idly spoken--or maliciously misconstrued--could be prosecuted as a felony.
Thanks to the efforts of the Montana Sedition Project, that state's governor on May 3 issued posthumous pardons to the 47 citizens imprisoned in that state for "sedition" during World War I. "I'm going to say what Governor Sam Stewart [who signed Montana's sedition law] should have said: I'm sorry, forgive me, and God bless America, because we can criticize our government," declared Governor Steve Milch shortly before issuing the pardons. Those words should have been said decades ago, during America's first global war to export democracy.
The present administration tells us the war to promote global democracy will last for decades. What abuses of liberty will ensue, and how long will it be before a belated posthumous apology is offered to the next generation of victims?
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Wedding planning is a busy process. But whether you're putting together an intimate gathering or a large celebration, the day is ultimately about you, your fiancé, and the future you're making together.
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