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Two weeks ago, we looked at National League position battles, so after a brief hiatus for LABR, let's pick it up and look at the American League position battles.
As noted, position battles scare fantasy owners because they threaten the most basic of roto tenants: that playing time is everything.
Which is true. However, in a deep league, where every team might have a few holes, mining the competition between teammates can be a real source of production for a couple of reasons.
One is that most of the time, the player who does not earn a starting job either winds up as the reserve fourth outfielder/utility infielder. Second, if younger, those same players go to the Minors to ensure playing time, and are usually among the first recalled from the Minors in the event of an injury or flameout.
But, there is a final caveat, and that is as often as not, the player in question actually grabs a starting job, and maybe 400 at-bats along with any of the above scenarios.
So, this time, let's turn our eyes to those players and struggles in the junior circuit, and do a little projecting.
In Seattle, with newbie Robinson Cano at second and Brad Miller at short, both Nick Franklin and Dustin Ackley are question marks. Franklin will probably get the utility infield gig, and for now, Ackley is penciled in as the left fielder with Michael Saunders holding center and Corey Hart in right. Hart is the surest thing, but he is injury prone, and Saunders and Ackley are offensive question marks. So, while either might make a nice pick, the guy I am looking to is Abraham Almonte. Now 24, Almonte was acquired from the Yankees for Shawn Kelley just prior to the 2013 season. Last year at Tacoma, Almonte hit .314-11-50 with 20 steals over 94 games, while walking 49 times to 66 whiffs (.404 OBP). Almonte did struggle (.136-1-1) but I like him as the fourth outfielder to start 2014, and the truth is, I like his future better than that of Ackley or Saunders.
The American League West has a few other considerations, so let's go to the Angels next, where speedy J.B. Shuck is listed as outfielder #4 behind Josh Hamilton, Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout. Further, the Angels are looking to aging Raul Ibanez to carry the bulk of DH time. Well, Hamilton has his injury struggles, and Ibanez had a slow second half. Somehow among all this, Shuck, who logged 129 games for the Angels last season, is the odd man out. The speedy outfielder did hit .293, stole eight bags and scored 60 runs over that brief span to go along with a decent enough 27 walks to 54 strikeouts (.331 OBP). I think J.B. will emerge as the third man in the outfield most of the time, with Hamilton getting DH time and Ibanez having likely outlived his fine career.
Moving to Oakland, it is no secret I am a big fan of both Derek Norris and Daric Barton. Oakland does have a nice thing going, and though I do think Norris will get the bulk of catching time, John Jaso will get both backstop time and DH time. That means Oakland will likely have to keep a third catcher for those instances when Jaso is the DH and Norris the backstop. So Stephen Vogt (.467-0-4 this spring over 17 at-bats) should make the squad to help out on the right side. It also probably means Alberto Callaspo could get some playing time at first as well as second. Sadly, it also means Barton will probably be on the short end of the roster stick to start the season.
Finishing yet another AL West position dogfight, it is true J.P. Arencibia couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, as they say. The owner of a career .212 batting average and .258 OBP over 1299 Major League at-bats, Arencibia has just 74 walks to 400 strikeouts. But, Arencibia does have a pretty good 67 homers over that same span. Right now, J.P. is backing Geovany Soto, who has been living off the hope of his 2008 .285-23-85 and then 2010 .280-17-53 line. Aside from those flashes, Soto is not so different from Arencibia, who is three years younger, aside from those seasons. I think the younger guy in Texas, with some decent hitting around him, might just kick it up.
The Royals have a pair of spots I am looking at. The bottom of the Kansas City rotation features aging Bruce Chen, who has had an up-and-down 15-year career (80-76, 4.49, with a 1.368 WHIP) and Danny Duffy, full of talent to go with a 1.570 WHIP and 4.75 ERA, less than stellar. I have loved Yordano Ventura (455 minor league strikeouts to 415.3 minor league innings) for a little over a year, and I think he pushes past both Chen and Duffy.
The Royals have been giving Mike Moustakas every opportunity to show he is the guy who hit .322-36-122 in 2010 at three levels. Since then, Moose has a .297 OBP and .681 OPS in the Majors, looking much more like a Brandon Wood clone. So, I would keep an eye on Danny Valencia, who clubbed .304-8-23 over limited time for the Orioles last year. It is not like Valencia is such a stud, but in an AL-only format, I think he is a much better bet than Moustakas, whom I think is a lost cause.
I must say that the draft season, when my mates in Tout Wars, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), and the NFBC all flit around, convening hither and yon across our wonderful country, is just one of the best times not just of the year, but one of the best times period.
Certainly, playing fantasy ball in the public eye is a hoot, as is attending spring games, but for me, nothing even comes close to beating the friendships and fun we all have together. That means my mate Lord Zola, Steve Moyer, Rick Wolf, Glenn Colton, Stacie Stern, Derek Van Riper, Derek Carty, Nick Minnix, LABR ringleader Steve Gardner and the rest of the bevy of writers and analysts I play with and whom we all read (to name a few).
So, this past weekend kicked off the whole Roto Road Tour 2014 with the "USA Today" sponsored LABR in Phoenix.
Saturday night found the American League participants assembled for the AL Auction, and Sunday--competing with those Oscars--found us back at the Arizona Republic HQ for the National League auction.
The National League fete proved quite different from the previous evening in that prices were a bit more conservative for the big sticks and arms, which made for a few relative bargains early on, but caused some fierce battles for player rights in the middle and end portions of the draft.
On the down side, I had targeted Anthony Rendon as a second sacker for around $14, and Nolan Arenado to cover third at $17. But, I had to pass on both as Rendon went for $18, and Arenado $22, more than the lines I had drawn in the fantasy sand.
Still, I am pretty happy with my squad, which has some question marks, but no deep holes.
You can judge for yourself:
C- Brayan Pena ($2): Very few backstops had been nominated into around the eighth round, and that gig is lean in both leagues, so it was clear there were going to be some big prices even for backups. For example, I nominated Hector Sanchez, figuring I could get him for $2 and he quickly went for $5, more than I wanted to pay for a second catcher. When Reds back-up Brayan Pena was nominated for a buck, I was happy to jump in for $2, heard crickets, and got the spot filled.
C- Ryan Doumit ($9): I got Doumit, who it appears qualifies at catcher but will not play there for the Braves, for $9 so I was happy to claim him for that. At least I don't have to be weary about his getting hurt behind the dish, even though I can hide him at that spot. I am hoping he can give me his usual 10-15 homers, and related numbers. No reason why he cannot, spelling in the outfield, and at DH. And, should B.J. Upton be ineffective, Doumit will get a lot of chances.
1B- Mark Trumbo ($20): I must say I was shocked to get Trumbo, who has averaged 32 homers over the past three years, for just $20. But, with Freddie Freeman ($27), Paul Goldschmidt ($32), Adrian Gonzalez ($25), and even Brandon Belt ($23), who I thought I could land for $17 or so, gone, I was surprised no one bid $22 on the former Angel. But, he goes into a favorable power park and provides that one element that has eluded my team the last couple of years: a legit 30-dinger threat.
2B- Emilio Bonifacio ($13): Middle infielder is horribly lean, and I waited too long to really commit, and as a result had to scramble. I had the money for Bonifacio, who will at least give me some speed and some position flexibility. And, he should be a starter.
3B- Maikel Franco ($8): One of three serious crap-shoots, I love the Phillies hot corner prospect, and I am not sold on Cody Asche, who went for $12 in that expensive mid-draft segment. So, gamble city. And, as you will see, I hedged my bets a little.
SS- Jordy Mercer ($9): I like the Bucs shortstop, who had a strong final couple of months, and got him for a reasonable price, just before the wave of prices started to rise for the everyday workmanlike guys. I might have had to adjust at second and third, but not here.
CI- Lucas Duda ($8): Qualifies in the outfield and at first, and is good for 10-15 homers. Fine with me.
MI- Marco Scutaro ($12): More than I planned to spend, but at the end I had the bucks, and again, Scutaro is a starter--if he gets healthy--with a solid enough stick.
OF- Matt Kemp ($21): Another guy I was surprised to get. Yes, health issues the past couple of years, but yes, major production when he plays. If he gives me 100 games, he should make my money back. If Kemp gets a full season in, coupled with Trumbo, I have a serious offensive force, with some swipes maybe even? Either way, a risk I can live with.
OF- Andre Ethier ($15): Ethier cost a few bucks more than I anticipated, but Kemp and Trumbo were relative values and Ethier, who has never gotten less than 400 at-bats, should get just that backing up the talented but injury-prone Dodger outfield. If Kemp falls apart, then Ethier is insurance.
OF- Will Venable ($19): 20/20 guy last year, and again, I was thinking the Padres outfielder would cost around $21. He adds pop, and speed.
OF- Junior Lake ($9): Has a starting gig in the Cubs outfield, and can play third. Lake had a nice .284-6-16 line over 236 at-bats last year. He does strike out (13/68) but, again, later in the draft, with money to spend, and Lake presented a nice opportunity.
OF- Jose Tabata ($7): Strong second half, some speed and a starting job. Sold.
U- Joaquin Arias ($1): Plays second, third, and short, and has averaged .270 the past couple of years. Should get some solid playing time with the Giants, and I can move Arias to my third base spot pending the arrival of Franco. Which, hopefully, will happen.
P- Cole Hamels ($20): Hamels has been slowed down this spring with some arm issues, so my mates were scared off. Word is Hamels will miss a few starts, so if that is the case, I have a nice #1 starter for a value price.
P- Jordan Zimmermann ($17): I had targeted Zimmermann for $19, and as a #2 starter, I am more than happy to have such a steady guy. And, even if Hamels does get hurt, Zimmermann can handle the move to #1.
P- Andrew Cashner ($13): Live arm with plenty of whiffs in a pitcher's park coming off a nice (10-9, 3.09, with a 1.13 WHIP) 2013, and ready to step up to a #1 starter role in San Diego. And, again, if Hamels gets hurt, Cashner can help keep my pitching competitive.
P- Marco Estrada ($10): 261 whiffs over his last two seasons and 266 major league innings. A nice price and not that much of a gamble, while still keeping some bottom depth to my rotation.
P- Alex Wood ($7): I love the Braves #5 guy as my #5 as well. A fine second half save a couple of funky late-season starts.
P- Brandon Beachy ($10): Again, late in the draft, and coming off TJ surgery, but ready to go. It might take a few starts for Beachy to get into his groove, but he was good before he got hurt, and I have no reason to believe he cannot pick it back up.
P- Sergio Romo ($17): Closer #1 is a great ratio and save guy who is also my favorite guy to watch pitch (his slider is so fun).
P- Jonathan Papelbon ($12): Getting older, but still pretty effective, and a great price. Love two closers, and even a stopper on a bad team will collect 25 conversions.
P- Nick Vincent ($1): Maybe my favorite pick simply because it surprised a few folks. But, if you have followed Vincent at all, you know he can miss bats. And, every roto team needs a third reliever. Plus, all the $1 guys you can nab in the middle of the draft means your average cost for the remaining players goes up.
Reserve 1- Jordan Pacheco: Listed as the Rockies #2 catcher, and he too can play third. For now, he qualifies at first, but I can pop Pacheco into the Utility spot, move Arias to third, and wait, hopefully for that same Franco guy.
Reserve 2- Jacob Turner: I drafted Justin Turner last year, and according to Steve Moyer, accidentally identified him as Jacob. Well, this time I have the Marlins starter to spell Hamels to start, and maybe fill in as the sixth starter if Hamels really is toast.
Reserve 3- Scott Van Slyke: Should Kemp go down, Ethier and Van Slyke will benefit. So, Van Slyke is tied to Ethier is tied to Kemp is tied to the knee bone is tied to the leg bone and so on.
Reserve 4- Cliff Pennington: Gives me some reserve infield cushion, and will provide some speed off the bench.
Reserve 5- Josh Collmenter: Strictly a middle reliever, but a very good one, who will get 110 innings and help fill out should I have an injury.
Reserve 6- Matt Wisler: One more crap shoot with the Padres' best minor league arm as of now. Trouble in the rotation at Petco and success for Wisler at Triple-A means I will have one more arm to use or trade. Surpluses are a good thing.
There are so many paradoxes within baseball, which is one reason the game makes such a perfect metaphor for this goofy life we are all treading through.
As in I always preach, "take risks, but calculated ones." Or, that "it is critical to leave the draft with as many innings and at-bats as you can get."
But, I also think one of the best ways to milk both playing time and value is by exploiting the uncertainty of position battles.
Position battles are great because they generally cause prospective owners to shy away due to that potential infringement on at-bats/innnings, and generally there is a veteran, with not just big league experience, but also a salary the Major League club wants some value. So, the worst is a utility gig for players like Rickie Weeks, but chances are the second baseman will make a big league roster, and grab 350-plus at-bats. Sometimes, those players are traded and wind up with full-time play, which is a real bonanza.
And in a deep league format, that can be huge.
So, this time let's take a look at some National Leaguers who are duking it out for playing time, and who can indeed be undervalued and underpriced.
Andre Ethier is plumb out of a gig, with Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig manning the outfield, but Crawford and Kemp have had their injury issues, and Puig has yet to log a full season at The Show. Add in that Ethier, 31, has never had fewer than 400 at-bats while garnering double digits in homers each season since 2006. True, Ethier has a tougher time against southpaws, but he does have a .288-141-587 line with an .832 OPS in the Majors. He'll play.
Chris Heisey has earned his gig on the bench with some disappointing play, not so much since he came up, but more since he clobbered 18 homers over 308 at-bats in 2011, then lost his power in 2012, and everything else in 2013 (.694 OPS). Jay Bruce is surely a fixture, but Ryan Ludwick, now 35, was hurt and lousy last year, and has been unspecial over eight of his 11 big league seasons. As for Billy Hamilton, he might have his Bryan LaHair-like flashes, as he did at the end of last year, but I just don't see the speedster as a full-timer (Hamilton could become a Willie Wilson type of player, but I want to see him make more contact). That means Heisey could benefit, and I doubt he would cost more than a couple of bucks in an NL-only format.
Evan Gattis might be the Braves catcher right now, but Ryan Doumit will get 400 at-bats. Period. Doumit has averaged 15 homers over the past six seasons and probably has the defensive edge over the streaky Gattis.
The Cubs have the somewhat dubious outfield of Nate Schierholtz, Junior Lake and Ryan Sweeney. I like Lake (hmmm, that has a lilt), but he only has 64 Major League games, while Schierholtz is only a 400 at-bat platoon guy at best, and Ryan Sweeney has Red Cross on his uniform where the New York Knights had a lightening bolt. Enter Emilio Bonifacio. Need I say more?
Colorado's outfield is similar, with the excellent, but sometimes fragile Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer buoying youngster Corey Dickerson. But, Dickerson has just 69 big league games, so much like Lake there should be playing time for Drew Stubbs, who will have some power and some speed. Stubbs has double digits in steals and homers every year save his first, 2009, but he got eight big flies and ten swipes that year.
Somehow, Lucas Duda is the odd man out with the Mets despite the presence of such offensive stalwarts as Chris Young, Eric Young, Jr., Curtis Granderson and Ike Davis. Duda has averaged .246-13-51 over the past three years with 397 at-bats. If you had Young, as in Chris, or Davis on a team last year, you would kill for numbers like those of Duda. I suspect the Mets will too once we get into the season.
Back we are for, believe it or not, our 18th season of the Hotpage.
Of course, we have been in the midst of mock season, as I am sure you know if you tune in here, or anywhere in the fantasy universe, where drafting as prep is de rigueur.
One of the things that is curious--and though I have my opinions on ADP, that is most certainly not what I am writing about here--is how stagnant the first round is from year-to-year.
Now, I am not finding fault with how we value players, but, we also know that statistically, two-thirds of the first rounders of this year will not finish the season with production worthy of that initial lofty perch.
So, to start this year's official craziness, let's look at the first round NFBC ADP players so far, and see which ones we think will miss the cut in a year, and perhaps another player who might prove to be a better selection when we look back.
#1-Mike Trout (CF, LAA): Trout is the consensus #1, and the two times I (well, really Todd and I) have had first pick at anything so far this season, Trout has been the guy. And, while I really don't think he can get any better, neither do I think he will fail at much of anything. Simply put, he can do everything you want a player to do it seems.
#2-Miguel Cabrera (1B, Det): Aside from rollover injury fears from last year, Miggy is the best hitter in the game, including Trout. But, well, he doesn't steal and he was hurt last year, so he's a bridesmaid in 2014.
#3-Paul Goldschmidt (1B, Ari): Funny, because to me, now is where the picking becomes dicey. As in clearly Trout and Miggy are one and two, but then where do you go? I do think Goldy is a solid enough hitter and he can repeat his numbers and be durable. #3 though? Do I like McCutchen's potential better here figuring I can get Brandon Belt five rounds later and that pairs better than say Goldschmidt and Starling Marte? I don't think he will drop off much, but similarly, not sure he is a first rounder. Or a #3.
#4-Andrew McCutchen (CF, Pit): The closest thing there is to an NL version of Trout at this juncture, Andrew the second best five category guy out there.
#5-Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD): The best arm in the Majors the past three seasons, Kershaw is not quite like picking Pedro used to be, but he is close. Furthermore, I am a big believer in not just building--and if you can trading from--strong pitching, and having the most dominant makes up for a couple of so-so arms later on.
#6-Chris Davis (1B, Bal): Davis is coming off a year-and-a-half of major pop. And, he had a great year last year, but I don't see him in the first round next year. Not so much that I see a huge drop-off, but I do see Joey Votto having a better season. Or translated, I am not convinced that the jump in OBP Davis experienced relative to his average will be repeated (even with last year's .370, his career OBP is just .327). I see .270-33-85 again, like he hit in 2012. Which is indeed pretty good, but maybe not first round good. I might have considered taking Hanley here, by the way.
#7-Carlos Gonzalez (LF, Col): It still kills me that Oakland traded Carlos because it seemed so obvious how good he could become. It is true Cargo is injury prone, which is the drawback. Otherwise, he would be in McCutchen-land. Still, he is just 27, and I have a feeling his on-base numbers will improve the next few years.
#8-Adam Jones (CF, Bal): I don't see Jones on the top-15 next year. 176 walks to 738 strikeouts, with a .279 screams for a major on-base correction to me. Still some power, sure. I would rather have Alex Rios here. Or if I was going to take a chance, Jason Kipnis would be more interesting, and perhaps more fun.
#9-Robinson Cano (2B, Sea): Among the five best hitters in the Majors, and, well, no, I don't care about the ballpark factor. "Why?" you may ask. Because Cano can hit, and I believe a good hitter can hit anywhere. And, Cano is .318-7-50 over 74 games at Safeco, so I am guessing he will hit there.
#10-Hanley Ramirez (SS, LAD): Not sure where Hanley went there for a few years (ok, some injury effects) but he seems to be back now. Before his struggles, Hanley was a top-five guy. He is still a top-10.
#11-Ryan Braun (RF, Mil): Braun can play, I am sure of that. But, I don't see him in a full return to form, whatever that is, this year. I do think Braun wants to prove himself to us, but I also think it can be hard to live under that shadow (right Melky Cabrera?). I like Matt Kemp better here, someone who has his talent baselined, but is fighting a different demon. Or, taking a chance on Yasiel Puig is probably what I would do.
#12-Jacoby Ellsbury (CF, NYY): Lots of talent, but such a huge drop in power numbers the last two years that it is hard to get a read on Ellsbury beyond average and speed. And, the Yankees are more of an aging team than anything else. Still, Ellsbury dropped off the first round after last year, so this is a fun kind of rebound pick, and the steals and runs and hits certainly justify Ellsbury's spot here.
#13-Bryce Harper (LF, Was): Harper took a big selectivity step forward last year, improving his OBP by 28 points despite just a four-point rise in his average (from .270 to .274). And, I like Harper as a gamble, or different angle here, especially since there in five picks you get to choose again. However, again, I am not sure I see first rounder here. I might like Adrian Beltre here. Or Yoenis Cespedes, who has shown as much power as Harper and has just enough more experience and skills to see a jump. I might also consider Buster Posey, who can fill either a catcher or first base slot.
#14-Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col) No question Tulo can hit. But, no question, Tulo has trouble staying healthy. But, I think the bottom line is we keep picking Tulo here thinking, or rather hoping, he will play in 150 games, and hit 30 homers and knock in 100 runs and hit .300 and steal 15 bases. I don't think that is going to happen again. I would prefer Ian Desmond to improve upon his .280-20-80 over Tulo simply repeating his .312-25-82.
#15-Prince Fielder (1B, Tex): Fielder's 2013 line of .279-25-106 is just about the worst of his eight-year career as a starter. I am guessing in Texas, during his peak career days, Fielder will pick it back up and put together one of his better seasons.
As the news of the suspension of Alex Rodriguez lit a virtual fire on Twitter Saturday morning, I was almost taken aback at how intensely the world seems to view the whole affair.
I suppose because the announcement of the Arbitrator's verdict happened to come during Hall of Fame announcement week--one fraught with judgements and opinions both PED related and not--just seemed to add to the madness.
I try to be objective with respect to such holocausts as that of the ethnicity of Santa Claus, the wedding of Honey Boo Boo's mother, or whether One Direction really are the next Beatles, but A-Rod's suspension is apparently no such animal.
While there are a few interesting future ramifications of the A-Rod deicision, in the end this whole thing smacks of Shakespeare all across the board.
In reality, Shakespeare wrote three genres: The tragedies and comedies, but also histories though some eggheads, and I mean this in a good way, might argue that plays like "A Winter's Tale" and my favorite of his works, "The Tempest," should really be categorized as romances. And that would make yet a fourth category.
Irrespective, though the histories were long and sometimes dry, as with "Henry V," or "Richard II," the documentations could also be riveting. Those plays also served the function of teaching a largely illiterate (remember, we are talking 16th century here) English population about their Regency and past.
So can we see that A-Rod, with his 162-game plus banishment from Major League Baseball in 2014, is the new precedent for someone who is apparently a second offender. And, my understanding is that since the arbitration between the MLBPA and MLB is binding, no matter how much talk and posturing we see, no courts will see the daylight of the whole debacle.
As for A-Rod himself, there is that sad Aristotelian tragic flaw--that is a character or person's greatest strength will similarly be their downfall-- about the guy baseball made their richest participant ever. Much like King Lear, a victim more of his own hubris than anything else, A-Rod is really fighting himself at this point, though unlike Lear, he lacks a sympathetic Cordelia.
For Rodriguez, who will turn 39 years old this season, and who has neither played in over 140 games, nor hit over .286 since 2009, the actual implications of the suspension are clearly much more symbolic at this point than anything else (where do you draft A-Rod on your team if he were healthy and eligible?)
So, in a way, the longer Rodriguez sort of pathetically challenges the decision, he indeed seems to "protest too much," and that really does change how I view him from vibrant player to sad old man (and I was 22 when he was born).
Of course, with all the fuss about Rafael Palmeiro being completely dropped from the Hall of Fame ballot (with less than 5% of the BBWAA votes), and the similar falls of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire, whether A-Rod can turn this group into the most infamous sports quartet seems likely for a while in that human beings tend to be judgemental, as well as not particularly forgiving.
I do have my doubts about Clemens and especially McGwire--neither of whom I am particularly crazy about as human beings for self-righteous reasons--being in the Hall, but as for A-Rod and Bonds, even if you subtract a portion of their stats--like 200 homers for Bonds--they were still better than just about every other player over the course of their careers.
Maybe in a few years, when us old farts are no longer voting for the Hall, having forgotten that greenies and spitballs and other vehicles for improving stats have been used in just about every discipline always in an effort to get ahead, a new generation will recognize, and who knows, maybe embrace the trail the generation of PED users blazed (would it be ok if stem cell research helped prolong a player's career, I ask?). Like in Woody Allen's movie "Sleeper," where they discover that smoking is actually good for you in the future.
But, I would also ask, as a human being, is A-Rod a more unlikable character than Ty Cobb, who is in the Hall despite being a surly bigot rumored to have killed someone (much worse than gambling or using PEDs in my moral book)?
Irrespective, over the long haul I know this whole thing will prove to be a "Comedy of Errors."
Because, as I said, we humans have short memories. And, since the Seahawks vs. Saints game started, all the A-Rod tweets have died anyway.
Maybe it is really "Much Ado About Nothing"?
It is indeed that time of year, when the holidays are here, and that means it is again time to announce this year's Top 250 Prospect List.
Actually, the tradition is that I publish the Top 10 right here (you can get the entire Top 250 as part of our Platinum Package), and while a lot of the names you expect to see on such a list are commensurate with the likes of Baseball America and MLB.com, my list always shines the light on a few players off the radar of most of the rest of the world.
Players are rated on power, strikeouts/innings pitched for pitchers, extra-base hits/hits for batters and strike zone control judgement for both as well. Then the age and relative level of play are also taken into consideration, with credit being granted for the highest levels at the youngest age.
So, without further ado, here are this year's Top 10 Mastersball Prospects for 2014 (note that age is as of Opening Day next year):
Hopefully, your curiosity is whet. Again, you can get the full list, with my sleeper picks noted and a brief comment for each player, as part of our Platinum Package.
Back I am from the Arizona Fall League, and that means a quick report on the players who caught my eye.
Of course my observations will include the players I think you would all like to know about, but, also the guys who looked like they had Major League stuff in my view.
Note that some of the players below made last year's Mastersball Top 250, which will be revealed with the December edition of the Hotpage. So, stay tuned, and please have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving holiday!
Addison Russell (SS, Athletics): I was anxious to see the 2012 #1 pick of Oakland, and believe me, he did not disappoint. Russell lined four hits over the couple of games I saw, and also got on once via an error. He only struck out once, swiped a base and showed excellent range and instincts at shortstop. I would guess a late ETA would be towards the end of the 2014 season, but strong play could find Russell at short with Jed Lowrie moving to second during the coming season, depending upon the path of the Athletics.
Alen Hanson (SS, Pirates): Probably the NL counterpart to Russell, the now 21-year-old Hanson broke out with a big season (.309-16-62) at West Virginia last year, and kept it coming with solid stats at Bradenton and then Altoona this year. Hanson displayed a quick bat (1-for-3 with a steal) at the AFL, as well as good range in the field and a strong arm. He is a skinny guy (just 152 pounds) yet 37% of his minor league hits have gone for extra bases. Hanson has a pretty clear path to the shortstop gig at PNC. Give him a year, and he is there.
Brett Nicholas (1B, Rangers): The Rangers' sixth round selection in 2010 had a nice year at Frisco (.289-21-91) last year, and I saw him for a total of four AFL at-bats: he banged a single and a pair of homers with a very quick bat. Nicholas is 25, meaning he is older than most of his AFL counterparts, but he can hit. The question is can he do it at the Major League level, and at his age, time is getting short.
Byron Buxton (OF, Twins): A first round pick in 2012 by the Twins, who turned in .334-12-77 season in 2013 combined between Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. I saw four at-bats at the AFL All Star Game (Buxton got one hit) but my mates said he did launch a couple of bombs that they witnessed during our stay. Buxton does not turn 20 until next month, and looks to provide some offensive help to the Twins, who are good at promoting their prospects, as soon as next year.
Kris Bryant (3B, Cubs): Chicago to the North's first round selection this year out of the University of San Diego, Bryant hit .336-9-32 over 146 in-season at-bats, banging a 1.076 OPS. He is big (6'5", 215 pounds) and has a big swing to go along. Bryant got a couple of hits and a walk that I saw, and made a good play and throw at third, but also was caught on a short hop making a little league play that got through him and should have been an error. Hence, his ultimate home may not be the hot corner at the Major League level. But, he can hit, and has a presence for sure.
Matt Ramsey (P, Rays): I don't remember seeing that many pitchers at the Fall League over the past few years who caught my attention. That is largely a function of usually just seeing a guy pitch for an inning or so, but Ramsey whiffed all three hitters he faced during the one inning I saw. He threw hard, and his 67 strikeouts over 64.3 minor league innings bear this out. He has given up the same number of hits as innings as a pro, so that tells me he is relying too much on his fastball, and that suggests he needs another pitch, or is a closer in waiting. Based upon the six conversions he culled last year, that latter scenario seems the path.
Lee Stoppelman (P, Cardinals): The Cardinals clearly know how to draft pitchers these days, and my mate Brian Walton brought Stoppelman to my attention. He whiffed a couple of the batters he faced that I saw with an interesting threee-quarters motion. Selected in the 24th round of the 2012 draft, Stoppelman climbed three levels this year, going 6-3, 1.50, with 78 strikeouts over 66 innings, with 40 hits and 26 walks (1.00 WHIP) to go along with six saves.
Last week, I listed players I would probably shy away from, were draft day coming in the Majors.
So, to finish the 2013 series of the Hotpage, I will discuss 13 players I like going into 2014 and why.
As with last week, often the criteria that makes players attractive is relative to the style and size of the league. And, sometimes, the value is simply nabbing someone for the reserve list in any kind of format.
Again like last week, I will start the festivities here at our Mastersball home, and conclude Tuesday with our partners and mates, KFFL.
Sonny Gray (P, Athletics): OK, so this list might prove to be a little Oakland heavy, but that is the team I see the most, and as I have regularly noted, they are vastly underrated. In that scheme, Gray is the latest in a terrific line of pitching acquisitions Oakland has made over the last few years. Be by trade (Jarrod Parker, Brett Anderson), free agent signing (Bartolo Colon), or the draft (A.J. Griffin, Dan Straily), Gray, who was a #1 pick out of Vanderbilt in 2011, might prove to be the best of them all (don't forget the arms, a la Dan Haren and Gio Gonzalez they have dealt away as well).
With a mid-90's fastball, and offspeed stuff with some filthy movement, Gray is one of those guys that throw deceptively hard, and can be equally efficient. He is also a quick worker, and able to keep the ball down, both solid traits for a pitcher (and Gray is just 23).
As a minor leaguer, he was 17-17, 3.66 over five starts and 292.2 innings, with 237 strikeouts to 103 walks and 294 hits.
But in Oakland, with a strong defense and cavernous park, he is now 4-3, 2.90 after pitching as the A's clinched the AL West title Sunday. He now has 59 punchouts to 17 walks, with 48 hits allowed over 59 innings (1.101 WHIP). I do not think you will be sorry getting him for a modest price now.
Jedd Gyorko (2B, Padres): The 24-year-old second San Diego selection in 2010, Gyorko came up as a third sacker, but moved to second this year at Petco in deference to the presence of Chase Headley.
Gyorko only managed 117 games during his rookie campaign due to injuries, but his .248-20-53 line was a triumph. First, the 20 big flies is pretty good for a rookie, especially when your home games are in Petco Park, which is as spacious as Oakland. Second, though he only walked 30 times, Gyorko whiffed 118, not so bad for a first-timer with pop, especially up the middle. And, well, if you want to extrapolate that he would have struck out 170 times over a full season, similarly Gyroko would have hit 30 homers using the same factoring.
Either way, I would expect him to get better every year for a few.
Josh Donaldson (3B, Oakland): Ok, I think one of Oakland's real hidden weapons is their third sacker; a player who was a catcher going into the spring of 2012.
But, injuries at third changed Donaldson's life it seems, for though he could not really cut it at first, Donaldson went to Sacramento last July and returned to hit .344-4-14 in August to help propel Oakland to their division title last year.
This year, he has become their best hitter, with a .306-24-91 line, including 54 multi-hit games.
Donaldson is probably a keeper in most of your freeze leagues, simply because he is probably cheap as a sleeper this year. Fair enough, but if he is not, he should still be modestly priced next year compared to Evan Longoria and Adrian Beltre (and maybe even Brett Lawrie) and if so, you would be well served to grab him.
By the way, if you play in a Scoresheet or Strat-O-Matic format, where defense counts, Donaldson has become a very good patroller of the hot corner.
Zack Wheeler (P, Mets): It is too bad that Matt Harvey will likely not be himself until mid-2015, because it will be big fun to watch the tandem of Wheeler and Harvey come of age.
Obtained by New York in exchange for the short-tenured Carlos Beltran, from San Francisco, Wheeler was the Giants' #1 selection in 2009.
Wheeler was 28-20, 3.56 in the Minors, with 420 strikeouts over 391.1 innings (176 hits, 323 hits, 1.275 WHIP).
At Citi this year, he's been 7-5, 3.42 over 100 innings, with 84 strikeouts to 42 walks and 90 hits (1.360 WHIP).
At 23, he will get better. Much better.
Jonathan Villar (SS, Astros): I saw the 22-year-old Villar, a Venezuelan native, over a couple of games in Oakland in early September and he was one of those guys that did everything well. Nothing eye-dropping, but he played his position well, got his bat on the ball, moved runners along, and showed very good speed.
Over what amounts to the final third of this year, Villar has hit a respectable .267-1-8, with eight doubles, a couple of triples, and 17 swipes over 180 at-bats. He has 22 walks to 60 strikeouts, good for a .347 OBP and along with Jose Altuve, will constitute one of the best and productive sets of middle infielders in the Majors over the next few seasons.
Nathan Eovaldi (P, Marlins): Acquired as part of the Hanley Ramirez deal with L.A. last season, Eovaldi struck out 298 over 364 innings, allowing 338 hits—just 11 homers though—and 146 walks (1.330 WHIP).
The 23-year-old, picked in the 11th round of the 2008 draft, does have those fits of wildness, but he also throws a fastball close to 100 MPH, and when he is on can be dominant.
Miami has some interesting young players, and Eovaldi, along with Jacob Turner and Jose Fernandez, could be a deadly troika anchoring a pretty good team in a couple of years. But, I like him having a full 2014, and he will likely be on the cheaper side.
In picking players who make me nervous going into 2014, it is hard to not notice the Mets, who in the coming season will likely remind us of the Astros in 2013 (minus Jose Altuve), and perhaps the 2012 Royals, teams where position player wise, it is difficult to justify taking anyone.
But, in identifying the players noted below, in general by listing the athletes I mean it more as a guideline to not spend too much, or draft too early. Or, as logic would dictate, let your opponents take the risk.
And, to add to the fun, this time I will start the festivities here at Mastersball, with my 15 guys who make me nervous for 2014, but to find the rest, look to our sister site KFFL on Tuesday to complete the list.
Patrick Corbin (P, Diamondbacks): Corbin had a great season, no question, but I cannot help but see him and his 14-6, 2.92 2013, and think Ian Kennedy in 2011, when he went 21-4, 2.88 over 222 innings, and returned to go 15-12, 4.02 in 2012. Maybe the deal is it is simply hard to string two really great years together, or maybe the league's book on a pitcher increases with said efficiency. Either way, I still would not trust Corbin beyond being a third starter, whatever price that may dictate.
C.C. Sabathia (P, Yankees): The rumors that Sabathia had had it this year were clearly premature, as C.C. has cleared 200 innings for the seventh straight year. However, his earned runs allowed lead the league, as do his batters faced total, while his WHIP of 1.368 is the highest of his career (.15 over his mean) while the strikeouts per nine are down by over one. I still like C.C. as a horse, but no more as the fastest or strongest pulling the wagon.
R.A. Dickey (P, Toronto): Putting Dickey here is tough simply because he throws a knuckler, and as we know from Tim Wakefield and Charlie Hough, a strong season can rise out of the ashes of a bad one. Not to mention that Dickey is such a fun character and story, but 1.4 homers per nine is a big jump, while 6.9 whiffs per nine is a big drop over his last three seasons. True, at 38 a knuckleballer is not necessarily finished, but one dominant season out of 11 is not a thick reed to spend an ace slot on. Who knows, maybe a trade to Phoenix (for Corbin) would help his chances at a resurrection?
Gordon Beckham (2B, White Sox): I have a feeling Beckham made this list last year. And, perhaps the year before? Either way, for a first round pick to now be in his fourth full season of play as a starter, yet unable to crack a .700 OPS, maybe it is time for Beckham to seek a utility role, rather than that of a starter? On just about any team but the White Sox, this would probably be the case.
Adam Dunn/Paul Konerko/Jeff Keppinger (1B/DH, White Sox): Ok, while we are picking on the Pale Hose, it is amazing that among this troika they hit 46 homers and drove in 170 runs, over 215 games, while the Sox could only manage 58 wins. All this cost the team was a collective $32 million for 2013, and though Konerko's contract is up, Dunn, who has hinted at retirement, has a season to go, and Keppinger has two on his respective deal. Truly, you want power at first and DH, and while those these three guys might be supplying it, the results are apparently never at the right time.
Remember, click to KFFL on Tuesday for the rest of the list. Note I will finish the year next week by doing the same thing with 15 players I like for 2014.
Probably the most exciting transaction of the week had to involve the Reds promotion of the speedy Billy Hamilton. There has been no question about Hamilton's speed game: he swiped 155 bags last season alone and has 395 over his 502 game career.
But, Hamilton's on-base abilities came into question this year at Triple-A Louisville, where he walked 38 times while striking out on 102 occasions, in contrast with 2012, where at Double-A Pensacola he walked 36 times to 43 whiffs over 50 games. Hamilton's OBP dropped almost 100 points, from .406 in the Southern League to .308 at the International League.
Hamilton has pinch-run for the Reds four times, stealing successfully each time, and scoring three runs, and at this time of year he is a pretty good gamble when those categories are bunched. Just recognize there could be little other production, and gaining points in one area, and in the process losing points in another, does not really solve much.
As for Hamilton's future, he is clearly overmatched by higher level pitching at this point, and he is just 22. But, the bottom line is whether he can learn to command the strike zone, and become a good hitter. Which is totally possible (think of Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith early in their careers), though it might take a few years.
I was across the bay, in Oakland working the Athletics/Astros game Friday, when Yusmeiro Petit almost bagged a perfect game at ATT. Petit is one of those enigmas: a guy who has the Minors mastered to the tune of a 58-46, 3.68 record, with 972 strikeouts over 967.1 innings, with a terrific 1.132 WHIP. In fact, Petit scored in the top 10 of my Top 100 (before it became the Top 250) with his 12-6, 2.20 mark at three levels as a 19-year-old.
As a Major Leaguer, however, a 5.19 ERA and 1.387 WHIP are the results over 260.1 innings. Petit, now 28, does seem to have learned (as ideally Hamilton can), as his numbers with the Giants this year are a stellar 3-0, 2.05 over three starts and 26.1 innings. That is a pretty limited sample, but I would not be surprised if the Giants leave Petit in the rotation to close out 2013, and if he continues to pitch effectively, he makes for an interesting below-the-radar consideration for next season.
I did work both the Thursday and Friday Oakland games, so I want to spend the next few paragraphs on some of the young players I saw in action during those contests, starting with Oakland's Sonny Gray.
Now, I did write a little about Gray a few weeks back, but had not seem him pitch, and I have to say he was very impressive Thursday, and though he allowed three runs (just two earned) over his 8 innings of work, he struck out seven, allowed seven hits and walked just one.
Over the first six innings, there was not a Houston out recorded by an Oakland outfielder, and Gray threw just 95 pitches—67 for strikes—over his evening's work.
Gray looks really good as a future arm on a team that has been very good at developing young arms.
On the other side, former Athletic Brad Peacock was the hurler opposing Gray, and the young Astro matched up squarely against Gray's strong performance, tossing seven innings of five hit, two run ball, striking out nine while walking just one. The performance only lowered his ERA to 5.62 (he is 4-5, over 11 starts and 65.1 innings) but Peacock showed very good control over his game and is at least worth tracking (though I suspect he is closer to Dallas Keuchel than Gray in long-term skill).
Jonathan Villar had a solid pair of games, going 3-for-9, while scoring a couple of runs, hitting a double, knocking in one and stealing a base. At present, the shortstop is hitting .276-0-4, over 127 at-bats, with eight doubles, a pair of triples and 13 steals. He is still 22, and might well just help stabilize Houston's middle infield along with Jose Altuve for the next few years.
Finishing with another Jonathan who is a middle infielder, the Orioles brought Jonathan Schoop up for their stretch push, coming off a .256-9-34 line over 70 games (270 at-bats) at Norfolk. As long as Brian Roberts is healthy, and the Orioles are in it, expect the incumbent to get the bulk of playing time for the balance of the season, but Schoop, at just 21, has a pretty good OPS of .743 as a minor leaguer, and again could be an interesting property in 2014, as Roberts, who has a hard time keeping his body on the field, is not signed for 2014.
Such strange transaction times in baseball these days, as we are at the final real milestone--Labor Day--that goes hand in hand with roster expansion. But, a cluster of waiver trades added to this week's roster madness, but, I have to start this holiday version of the Hotpage with a nod to the most delicious player name to make the Show since Stubby Clapp.
That would be Arizona catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, the first Tuffy to hit the Majors since Tuffy Rhodes, a fantasy legend of sorts. Not that Gosewisch (whose formal name is James Benjamin Gosewisch) is any kind of a fantasy pick up, at age 30, with a .239-50-301line over nine minor league seasons. Still, baseball has such a great tradition of goofy nicknames, and this latest iteration of Tuffy certainly deserves a nod and chuckle, if nothing else.
Baltimore acquired Mike Morse from Seattle on the first of the waiver moves we can review this time. Morse, as witnessed by his great 2011 of .303-31-95, is certainly capable of major production, but, the 146 games he played that season dwarfs any other consistent playing time over his career. He did manage solid enough numbers of .291-18-62 last season with the Nationals, albeit over 102 games, and came out of the blocks hot this year after signing with Seatle, hitting .245-8-12 over the first month of the season.
However, he has gone .228-5-14 over 175 Seattle at-bats since, and just prior to the trade to Baltimore, which should be a bit of a boost to the 31-year old. Morse should both benefit from the new surroundings, in both playing for a contender, and within a somewhat more potent lineup than in Seattle.
Similarly, the Dodgers obtaining another Mike, that being Michael Young, makes for an equally nice interleague move. Los Angeles has survived the season with piece-meal parts at the hot corner, starting with the possiblity that Dee Gordon would step his stick up, and leave Hanley Ramirez to play third. That failed in the spring, so Luis Cruz and Nick Punto filled the gap until Juan Uribe returned to form, and though all three combined for decent production (.235-10-68), Young is a professional hitter who brings .276-8-42 2013 totals to his team.
At 36, Young is clearly past his very good prime but he makes contact (.336 OBP, and .731 OPS) and like Morse should benefit by being both with a contender, and in a much more potent lineup. Meaning Young is a nice play over the final month of the season.
On the flip, there were two intra-league waiver moves that are probably less promising, starting with Jason Kubel moving to the Indians. The left-handed hitting outfielder/DH made a nice mark in 2009 with his .300-28-103 season, even managing a decent follow-up season of .249-21-92, then succumbing to injury and free agency to Arizona in 2012.
There the now 31-year old did well enough with .253-30-90 numbers, but this season has been beyond disasterous with .220-5-32 numbers over 241at-bats. Though back in the American League, Kubel's role is not so clearly defined as those of Young and Morse, so even though Kubel goes to a contender, I have less faith he will deliver as in the past.
I feel much the same for Kubel's former Minnesota mate, Justin Morneau, who is now a Pirate.
Morneau's last sort of full season of 2009 (.274-30-100) was in 2009, like Kubel, and since he has struggled with injuries to be sure, and though the first sacker's 2012 promised some hope (.267-19-77) it mostly revealed that Morneau is now decent, but not much more. His 2013 line is nearly the same at .257-17-74, and though the Pirates have made it through well enough with Garrett Jones and Gaby Sanchez manning first, Morneau is likely a more formidable option.
Mostly, the addition gives Clint Hurdle some roster flexibility, but the league switch does put Morneau in the National League for the first time as well, usually a tough transition.
The reality is that it is crunch time, so using your FAAB to grab either Morneau or Kubel is certainly a prudent move, but simply don't expect too much from either.
Seattle jumped the gun of September 1 roster expansion by a day, promoting their first round selection of 2010, Taijuan Walker. Just 21, Walker is a premiere prospect who marched into AA in 2012, whet his feet (7-10, 4.69) and then showed his stuff this year with a 4-7, 2.46 line that prompted a promotion to Tacoma where Walker handled himself well with 5-3, 3.61 totals prior to the call-up.
Walker has 400 whiffs over his 371.2 minor league innings, allowing 307 hits to 149 walks (1.227 WHIP) and that means he can indeed be dominant, something Walker did carry onto his first start of five innings with a pair of hits allowed, no earned runs, and a win. If Walker is for some reason available in your league you want him now, but you really want him for the future.
Detroit's Nick Castellanos was also a high school sign from the 2010 draft, in fact he was selected one pick after Walker. Castellanos was a third sacker when signed, but since Detroit is pretty well set at third with that Miguel Cabrera guy, Castellanos is now playing in the outfield. Also 21, he hit well at Toledo this year (.276-18-76) and a solid 54 walks to 100 punchouts (.343 OBP). Like Walker, if available, Castellanos is a player you want to have in your pocket for coming years.
We can finish with one more pick from 2010, the #11 player overall in Oakland's Michael Choice. Choice did opt for college (three years at Texas) instead of signing out of high school, and now 23, has moved up to the point of a strong 2013 of .302-14-89 at Sacramento. Choice also drew a strong 69 walks to 115 strikeouts (.390 OBP) but for the bulk of 2013 will have a tough time cracking the Oakland outfield at least until the point where the team clinches or is out of it. Still, Choice makes an interesting future possibility.
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