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Not to rain on your picnic, but your Arrhenius "thought experiment" would have predated photons by at least a decade. He would have had difficulty invoking them, much less as stridently as you quote. Indeed, he would have anticipated quantum mechanics by a good 25 years.
And modern statistical mechanics (which includes thermodynamics) works quite well without photons above the microscopic level and right up to planetary scales.
Economists are routinely derided for recommending incremental policy change on the basis of implications of economic models.
It is alarming that the same scepticism about the skill of modelling supporting the theory of anthropogenic global warming is completely missing in policy-making circles when it comes to proposals to fundamentally change the world economy.
The main problem with this article is the subheading "There are lots of uncertainties in climate science. But that does not mean it is fundamentally wrong" and the conclusion "Using the IPCC's assessment of probabilities, the sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide of less than 1.5ºC in such a scenario has perhaps one chance in ten of being correct."
Thats exactly what the bureaucrats who wrote the Summary for Policymakers would have you believe, that the climate scientists said they have at least 90% confidence in the models. However, when you read the supporting Working Group 1 document you will find:
The scientists conclude that they really can't make any valid assessment of the relative confidence of the IPCC climate models and feedback assumptions because they haven't done a comprehensive set of observational tests (i.e. haven't compared the models to actual data) to find out if the models are any good. In the final paragraph of this critical section of the AR4 WG1 Chapter 8 page 52 the scientists state that a number of diagnostic tests [of the models] have been proposed, but few of them have been applied to the models currently in use. The inconvenient truth is that this has been done by John Christy, Richard Lindzen, et al, and the models have consistently failed miserably, but those scientists weren't part of the invited "consensus". Next it says it isn't even clear which diagnostic tests are critical to assess confidence in the models. The section concludes by saying that the things necessary to assess confidence in feedbacks simulated by different models have yet to be developed. In other words, the scientists can't make any assessment whatsoever of confidence of the models at the heart of the IPCC "consensus" on anthropogenic global warming.
A laudable effort at explaining an emotional topic with great sums of money and human endeavour in the balance.
The root problem is precision. The wide variation in the predictions makes the political case difficult. Indeed,the case is largely statistical. Everyone recalls Disraeli's ranking of untruths ("Lies, damned lies, and statistics"). Many scientists would rank computer models below those. The numbers are open to legitimate debate about the power and value of various analytical methods. Very few people can make sense of these discussions. Far fewer are politicians.
One of the quickest ways to resolve a statistical dispute is to provide more data. All else being equal, doubling the size of a data set based on purely physical measurements reduces your analysis uncertainty by about 40%. A 40% improvement in prediction would probably settle the issue.
Right now, the skeptics can have a quasi legitimate field day cherry picking embarrassing data out a paucity of contrary measurements. The advocates have built an entire argument on a few dozen tree rings that even they admit are pretty thin and manipulated.
Yet our efforts at increasing the data pool are lamentably poor. Even today, aside from one uncalibrated satellite, we don't even measure CO2 very often or over a wide area. This only one example of a deplorable litany of ungathered data and missed lines of investigation. Indeed it is stunning, and both sides of the "debate" should be ashamed of themselves for not insisting on more information to allow better decision making.
Is it not wise to divert an almost insignificant fraction of the resources proposed toward CO2 reduction into better basic science? Must we rush to judgment and deprive large parts of humanity of these resources that could feed, cure, and educate the desperately needy?
If this were the best science possible, I would say yes. It isn't. I want better than this to go on. And it's not an "insurance policy" with a meagre premium. It's tens of millions of people in need of these resources. We should be sure they aren't squandered on what some suggest may not be needed, and even the most ardent can't guarantee will work as planned.
There is one more area I would like to address that The Economist did not (not that we can expect one article to cover all the pertinent impacts of the AGW issue) --- and that is the area of Mental Health.
There has been a lot of damage from science poorly communicated, and often exaggerated. I overheard a elderly gentleman talking to his friend on the streetcar a few days ago. I overheard him sincerely and with great remorse express to his friend how he felt that "we only have a few years in which to turn this around, maybe 5 years, and after that, with no change, we will be lost --- it will be too late!"
Now this was from someone who appeared to be intelligent and caring. Can you imagine the psychic pain this person must live with every day? If he could not let go of this preposterous idea, what kind of value did his life hold for him any longer? I was moved. But this is what the Purveyors of Pain have done. They have done unimaginable harm far beyond any dollars that have been spent. And we have not even begun to spend on real mitigation. I was upset by what overzealousness on the part of some has wrought. I know that this person is representative of a lot of other people, including young people some of whom are not sufficiently fluent in the underlying science to protect themselves from the Perniciousness of the Purveyors of Pain. And they get a Nobel -- who would have thought it possible? The psychic damage IMO is incalculable, and completely unnecessary. I had read of warnings of the Anxiety Effects on Mental Health in the newspaper, but now I was seeing it with my own eyes. There are apparently clinics that offer help to those who cannot live with GWA --- Global Warming Anxiety.
The Economist article concludes with:
"The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which it is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction."
If the Economist is right that IF we are only up against some trivial 'uncertainties' that do not overturn the main thrust or 'consensus' of what the Science is telling us, then this fine magazine is also right to conclude what it does --- that this is no reason for inaction.
But is the Economist right?
I do not agree. It is not the uncertainties that give us a free pass to ignore a dangerous future by constructing possibly more benign ones.
No, what allows us to 'ignore' such doomsday scenarios is that Climate Science has failed to prove its case.
It might have helped if Climate Science had also not gone to the Extremely Harmful Scenarios right at the start of having done SOME of the science. If the wolves are really at the door, don't we have good reasons for not believing that?
John Dodds, I cannot agree with you. Your hypothesis assumes that all available energy from the sun is already being 'absorbed' or turned into heat. If that were true, then you would be right. Additional CO2 would have no effect.
But IMO not 'all the photons', as you word it, are being absorbed and 'turned into heat'.
Whether the 'photons', the energy, is in the form of UV, visible light, IR, or some other part of the electromagnetic spectrum, there is some that comes into our biosphere and goes back out and never 'converts' into anything else.
CO2 does act as a blanket (poor analogy, I know) and a thicker blanket does slightly raise the 'steady-state' or 'average temperature', for lack of a better descriptor, of our Earth.
There is a limit to this effect -- endless increases in CO2 DO NOT create Venusian conditions on Earth. Some think that we are at about 85% of the theoretical forcing that is available from CO2 alone. So even if we 'used up' the additional 15%, with more CO2 in the atmosphere, this does not mean that the oceans will boil.
If, for example, we stabilised the CO2 at 500 PPM average concentration in the atmosphere then we could expect our average temperature to be slightly higher than it is today. But IMO there is no Runaway Global Warming coming.
I liked the tone of The Economist's article. It shows a new humility which all science needs IMO (as do most of the rest of us in our own daily lives, I must say).
One article cannot address all the issues people have, whether they be Believers or Deniers.
I, for one, believe that it is good to have a little insurance AGAINST Cooling. Most people would not agree with this type of 'Precautionary Principle'. Why would anyone think that today's Temperature or Climate is optimal for Life --- just because today is today? Please, I need a little bit of input here from real scientists, because so far (as Bjørn Lomborg as pointed out) there is no consensus that today's climate is optimal.
Even if we get more CO2 it does not mean that Earth will endlessly continue to HEAT. It simply means that a new 'steady-state' will be achieved that is, on average, higher than it is today. Some people think that an increased CO2 level means that Earth will continue to get warmer until life becomes unbearable. This is a common conception but is wrong.
There is great value in studying Climate Science. But IMHO Climate Science is nowhere near mature enough ready to suggest Policy Solutions to a 'Problem' that is so ill-defined, especially considering the very real costs to so many humans from the currently-proposed 'solutions'. This is where I agree with the concern about other priorities raised by "dany the blond".
"thomaswfuller" is right by suggesting that the IPCC has only itself to blame for its own faux pas.
I would add is that the IPCC has so severely hurt its chances of being the leading and believable outlet for Climate Science News, that it looks like this role will be taken up by organizations external to the U.N. (regardless of what comes out of the IPCC's review of its own processes).
Indications are that both America and India will establish their own agencies to study and report on the issue.
Here I agree with "MostlyHarmless" who quoted the article: "That said, the doubters tend to assume that climate scientists are not acting in good faith". It is not MOST of the Climate Scientists that we distrust, it is some of them. And it is the IPCC which as a political organisation with its own agenda (to drive it on occasion to predestined conclusions) that has failed us --- we have not failed it! That is what we distrust.
As "MostlyHarmless" implies, the data have been damaged. More than likely the newly-established agencies will revisit all of the original data, to determine which datasets can actually be relied on. Those that cannot be 'found' in their original form will of course be discarded, and properly so.
@Orkneygal: "However, the MWP deniers will never admit the existence of the MWP because it means that their religous-like belief in AGW is exposed for the steaming pile of junk science that it truly is."
Yes, we all know that scientists are an intrinsically uncurious lot who are never interested in data that contradicts their pet theories, because after all if their theories were wrong then they'd have more stuff to figure out and nobody becomes a scientist because they are interested in figuring stuff out.
This long rambling article comes close to admitting the reality that the climate science used by the IPCC is junk science based on dodgy data. This is a step forward for the Economist.
You have used Tremberth's hypothetical diagram of energy exchange that cannot be confirmed by direct measurment.
Tremberth is one of the climategate emailers, and bemoans that their modelling cannot explain the recent lack of warming.
Your concluson that regardless of doubt the world must do something, like spending hundreds of trillions of dollars and disrupting the world economy, is a suprising one for the Economist.
Perhaps a commentary by Bjorn Lomborg would be timely. One of his key messages is that the world's poor will pay the highest price for this proposed folly.
The overwhelming paleoclimate evidence from around the globe is that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was synchronous, world wide and much warmer than today.
However, the MWP deniers will never admit the existence of the MWP because it means that their religous-like belief in AGW is exposed for the steaming pile of junk science that it truly is.
If we are lucky, Mother Earth's temperature will return to those glorious in the past where Greenland was farmed by the Vikings and my ancestors, the Polynesian people, made important voyages of discovery across the Pacific in search of cooler temperatures. Siberia will become the world's food basket and the Sahara might bloom again as a warmer world brings more rainfall there.
It's a good summary. Probably by design, it doesn't go into the politics and shenanigans that have fuelled the skeptics' fire. It's not hard to understand that when Rajendra Pachauri reacts to one of the errors in the report by accusing the scientist who brought it to his attention of 'practising voodoo science' that some will add it to an already long list of attempts to demonise skeptical critics.
Those on Pachauri's team have a hard task--they should be providing better and more frequent views on the uncertainties in their calculatons, which goes against their stated mission of educating politicians on how to deal with the effects of climate change. Two tough rocks to steer between. I don't think they've done a very good job of it so far.
This article is quite typical of an issue poorly discussed.
There is - according to some - a risk due to climate change ; probably so ; but what is more important and significant is to prioritize according to a) the likelihood, b) severity (should we forget other pains in the world such as poverty, sicknesses, water shortfall, pollution,the list of pleagues is quite endless ?).
We're at a time where global change proponants have still to show the actual smoking gun evidence of i) the CO2 impact, ii) the role of human made CO2, iii) the validity of any 'runs' by the long term climate models at a time where they fail beyond 5 days !
And the first thing would be to establish a decent record of raw temperature records without any unwarranted 'homogeneisation' or other undocumented IT process
During that time, we should address all other unquestionable priorities !
"The doubters tend to focus on specific bits of empirical evidence, not on the whole picture."
Some of those "specific bits" are fundamental, not incidental, to the "whole picture", and I suspect the author knows that. One of those "specific bits" is the temperature record itself, not least that raw data from the earlier half of the 20th century has been adjusted down, and data from the later half adjusted up. If UHI is adjusted for, one would expect an increasingly net downward adjustment to account for cities and towns encroaching on measuring stations, and existing cities and towns growing and releasing more heat energy. What is seen however, is an increasing net UPWARD adjustment over recent decades. Even some rural stations have had their records adjusted upwards.There can be no possible excuse for these distortions of the historical record, and if the raw data is used instead (which should, in theory OVERSTATE any rising temperature trend, the results look remarkably horizontal in trend for most countries, and even downward for some. Many have asked "WHAT warming?"
"Measurements made since the 1950s show the level of carbon dioxide rising year on year, from 316 parts per million (ppm) in 1959 to 387ppm in 2009"
Indeed - at Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii - situated 3397m up the largest active volcano in the world, in an area of active volcanism, on an archipelago surrounded by an out-gassing ocean - not the best place for an atmospheric observatory, a cynic might observe.
"Less direct records show that the rise began about 1750, and that the level was stable at around 280ppm for about 10,000 years before that"
Based on ice-core data using a controversial and not-very-accurate measuring technique. A less controversial and highly accurate series of measurements beginning in the mid 19th century, and continuing today shows that CO2 concentrations vary quite widely from day-to-day, year-to-year, place-to-place, and also depend on altitude. These have been ignored by the IPCC authors, not surprisingly since they show that levels of 350-400 ppm were common throughout the entire period. The "smoking gun" is a pop-gun.
Finally -
"It seems unlikely that the errors, misprisions and sloppiness in a number of different types of climate science might all favour such a minimised effect. That said, the doubters tend to assume that climate scientists are not acting in good faith"
The IPCC's main objective is "to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to the understanding of human induced climate change, potential impacts of climate change and options for mitigation and adaptation". If THAT's not a loaded agenda, I don't know what is!
I for one look forward to the insightful discussion characterized by thoughtfulness and a willingness to listen and take seriously the points of others that will invariably follow in the comments on this topic.
I do not believe the scientific illiteracy of the so called scientists, writers and public who comment here.
LOOK at the GREENHOUSE EFFECT.
Arrhenius et al said that you MUST, HAVE TO, ARE REQUIRED TO have a photon be absorbed by a Greenhouse gas to get the Greenhouse warming effect. The IPCC says (AR4 WG1, Ch1 p116) just adding a GHG to the air results in warming.
You can't have it both ways. Either you have to add the photon of energy or miraculously adding a GHG results in warming without adding energy in violation of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics and conservation of energy. The IPCC AND the computer models are mis-applying the GHE. They can't do the science properly.
Now it is very understandable, but still wrong, how this mis-interpretation came into being. Arrhenius in his 1896 thought experiment, basically said 1 GHG plus a photon produces some GHE warming, 2 GHGs produces twice as much, 10 produces 10 times as much etc etc. And the results were presented such that as more GHG is added then there is more warming (ie the doubling od CO2 produces 1C rise in the article). What they failed to do is evaluate what happens in reality on the Earth, when you use up all the available incoming energy, when the energy in equals the energy out at equilibrium conditions, and when all of the absorbable outgoing photons are already being absorbed (because there is excess GHGs water vapor and CO2 still in the air and the ocean), which is basically all the time that the atmosphere is at or near equilibrium. Remember, the Earth temperature goes from absorbing more energy to radiating more energy , passing exactly through equilibrium exactly twice every day. At all other times it is chasing that equilibrium at the speed of light as it absorbs energy or radiates it away. At this equilibrium point if you add more GHGs the GREENHOUSE EFFECT CHANGES. Since there is no available photon energy to be absorbed,(its all already in use for the current equilibrium GHE) then the added GHGs just sit there as excess. There is NO more GHE warming, unless more energy is introduced, which it is every morning. BUT it is also taken away every night. The temperature goes down, the amount of the GHE reduces, the GHGs, Water Vapor and CO2 methane etc that were producing more daytime GHE warming, now reduce and there is more nighttime cooling, and more GHGs, including CO2, are released to become excess sitting in the air, waiting for the energy to increase again the next morning.
So if the GHE requires a photon, and if there are excess GHGs in the air (as in the water vapor that does not increase in temperature whenever the humidity increases), then it is THE number of photons available that limits the GHE warming. If all the absorbable photons ARE already continuously absorbed (for example by the excess of water vapor and CO2) and then leave even more excess water vapor available in the air. Then, adding any more WV GHGs does not have an impact on the temperature. It "don't" warm when it rains!!
So ask yourself the following question: if the energy is not limited, then just why does the GHE WAIT until man adds more CO2 which results in more WV feedback to generate more GHE warming instead of using the excess of GHGs that are already available in the air and in the ocean? The IPCC models do NOT make sense.
If all the WV absorbable photons are already in use then any feedback WV GHGs that are created by the computer models do NOT add to the GHE since there are no more absorbable photons available to be absorbed. Feedback effects do NOT exist. just more excess WV molecules. The computer models and IPCC are wrong. Since the so-called forcing functions for processes are derived from computer model runs, they too are invalid.
The error introduced in the models and IPCC reports far far exceeds any melting of the snow in the Himalayas, or missing CRU temperature data, or drying out of the Amazon rainforest. The IPCC analysis is just plain wrong. There is no increase in future warming due to adding more excess CO2, unless there is more external energy added. The Scientific Journals and peer review scientists are extremely incompetent. The research grants for studying temperature impacts of added CO2 emissions are fraudulent. The bureaucrats who granted the research grants are negligent. The politicians who attended the IPCC etc meetings did so under false pretences. The political initiatives to reduce CO2 emissions in order to reduce global warming are in error, the laws to impose more expensive "clean" energy instead of coal and oil are unjustified . The professors are teaching erroneous science to the students. All the textbooks about global warming are in error. and the newspapers and blogs are a pure waste of time, not to mention the misinformation being distributed. AND my taxes paid for all this. I WANT MY MONEY BACK.
With the billions of dollars going into GW, why is so little attention being paid to the sorry state of actual temperature gathering? Is there fear diluting the message?
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text:
Meeting Date: January 25, 2010
From: Chief William Chrisman
Subject: An ordinance amending Article IV of Chapter 21 of the Code of ordinances pertaining to stopping, standing, parking, and penalties for violations received.
Staff Recommendation:
Approval to amend article IV of Chapter 21 of the Code of Ordinances of the city of Leesburg, Florida; pertaining to stopping, standing and parking; providing for liability for payment of penalties; providing for procedure for payment of fines or contesting citation; repealing conflicting ordinances; providing a savings clause; and providing an effective date.
The city does not currently have a method of enforcement after a parking citation is issued to an offender. An offender may choose to ignore a parking ticket without any punitive measures. The proposed ordinance, if approved will change this practice. It will provide for a City forum (the Special Magistrate) to hear cases and determine possible punitive measures for three-time repeat offenders who fail to pay associated fines.
1. Approve ordinance as written.
2. Such alternative action as the Commission may deem appropriate.
Fiscal Impact: All clerical or processing expenses associated with the collection of parking fines will be passed on to the offending party. Since the special magistrate will be hearing these cases, this could result in a slight cost increase. The increase will/may be based on the projected increased workload and subject to the special magistrate contractual agreement.
Department: ______________________ Prepared by: ______________________ Attachments: Yes____ No ______ Advertised: ____Not Required ______ Dates: __________________________ Attorney Review : Yes___ No ____ _________________________________ Revised 6/10/04 |
Reviewed by: Dept. Head ________ Finance Dept. __________JB______ Deputy C.M. ___________________ Submitted by: City Manager ___________________ |
Account No. _________________ Project No. ___________________ WF No. ______________________ Budget ______________________ Available _____________________ |
BE IT ENACTED BY THE PEOPLE OF THE CITY OF LEESBURG, FLORIDA, that:
Article IV of Chapter 21 of the Code of Ordinances of the City of Leesburg, Florida, is hereby amended as set forth below:
Sec. 21-46. Alleys, parking in, blocking.
(a) No person shall stop, stand, or park a vehicle within an alley in a business district, or in a location designated as a loading zone, except for the expeditious loading or unloading of materials, and in no event for a period of more than twenty (20) minutes, and no person shall stop, stand, or park a vehicle in any other alley in such a manner, or under such conditions as to leave available less than ten (10) feet of the width of the roadway for the free movement of vehicular traffic.
(b) No person shall stop, stand, or park a vehicle within an alley in such position as to block the driveway or entrance to any abutting property.
21-47. Removing and impounding vehicles.
(a) Whenever any police officer finds a vehicle standing upon a street or alley in violation of any of the provisions of this Article, such officer is hereby authorized to move such vehicle, or require the driver or person in charge of the vehicle to move the same to a position off the paved or improved or main-traveled part of such street or alley.
(b) Whenever any police officer finds a vehicle unattended upon any street, bridge, or causeway, or in any tunnel within the city where such vehicle constitutes an obstruction to traffic, such officer is hereby authorized to provide for the removal of such traffic in accordance with the provisions of Chapter 13 of the Code of Ordinances.
21-48. Parking for certain purposes prohibited.
No person shall park a vehicle upon any street, alley, or other thoroughfare for the principal purpose of:
(1) Displaying such vehicle for sale;
(2) Washing, greasing, or repairing such vehicle, except repairs necessitated by an emergency;
(3) Displaying advertising;
(4) Selling merchandise from such vehicle except in a duly established market place, or when so authorized or licensed under the ordinances of the city;
(5) Storage, or as junkage or dead storage for more than twenty-four (24) hours.
21-49. Parking adjacent to schools.
When signs are erected giving notice thereof, no person shall park upon either or both sides of any street adjacent to any school.
21-50. Restrictions on farm tractors, trailers, trucks and commercial
vehicles upon use of streets.
(a) When signs are erected giving notice thereof, no person shall operate or stop, stand, or park any farm tractor, trailer, semi-trailer, truck or commercial vehicle with a gross weight in excess of the amounts specified on the sign at any time upon any of the streets in the city.
(b) It shall be unlawful to operate, park, stand or use upon any public street any commercial vehicle unless the vehicle is designated by lettering of three (3) inches minimum size on either side indicating the name of the firm or the name of the corporation or person operating the same for a commercial use.
(c) It shall be unlawful for any person to drive, propel or operate, or cause to be driven, propelled or operated on, upon or over any street in the city any vehicle or contrivance having wheels provided with sharpened or roughened surfaces other than roughened pneumatic or solid rubber tires, or wheels from which tires are detached; provided, that this restriction shall not apply to vehicles or implements used by the city in the construction and maintenance of city streets when permit for such use shall have been previously had and obtain from the city. Such permit shall state and designate the streets which may be so used, the length and time the same shall be in force and the nature and character of the vehicle or implement to be so used. This restriction shall not apply to farm implements weighing less than one thousand (1,000) pounds and provided with wheel surfaces of more than one-half inch in width. Wheels of traction, engines and other vehicles when provided with suitable filler blocks between cleats shall be considered as having smooth tires.
Sec. 21-51. Fines.
Fines are hereby imposed for the violation of the provisions of this chapter relating to parking, as follows:
(1) Overtime parking, twenty-five dollars ($25.00);
(2) Improper parking, thirty-five dollars ($35.00);
(3) Unauthorized parking in designated handicapped parking spaces, one hundred dollars ($100.00).
Section 21-52. Liability for Payment of Penalties.
Under the authority of Chapter 316 Florida Statutes, the owner of a vehicle is responsible and liable for payment of any parking ticket violation unless the owner can furnish evidence that the vehicle was, at the time of the parking violation in the care of, custody of, or control of another person. In such instances, the owner of the vehicle is required within a reasonable time after notification of the parking violation, to furnish to the appropriate law enforcement authorities an affidavit setting forth the name, address, and drivers license number of the person who leased, rented, or otherwise had the care of, custody of, or control of the vehicle. The affidavit submitted pursuant to this section shall be admissible in a proceeding charging the parking ticket violation and raise the rebuttable presumption that the person identified in the affidavit is responsible for payment of the parking ticket violation. The owner of a vehicle is not responsible for a parking ticket violation if the vehicle involved was, at the time, stolen or in the care of, custody of, or control of some person who did not have permission from the owner to use the vehicle. The operator of a vehicle which is in his care, custody, or control with or without the permission of the owner shall be responsible for any parking violation notice which occurs while the vehicle is in his care, custody, or control.
Section 21-53. Procedure for Payment of Fines or Contesting Citation.
Any person receiving a parking violation notice pursuant to this chapter shall respond to the violation notice by either the following procedures within 10 days after the date of issuance of the citation:
(1) The fine listed on the parking ticket can be paid at City Hall, placed in the drop box outside of City Hall or mailed to the City of Leesburg, P.O. Box 490630, Leesburg, Florida 34749. All fines must be received by the City within 10 days of the date they were issued.
(2) A hearing may be requested by the person receiving such violation notice or the cited vehicle's registered owner for the purpose of presenting evidence before the Special Master of the City of Leesburg concerning the parking violation. Any person requesting a hearing shall execute a statement on a form provided by the City of Leesburg indicating his willingness to appear at such hearing at a time and a place specified thereon. Any person who requests a hearing and does not appear in accordance with such statement shall be subject to other penalties as the Special Master may, at her discretion, impose to require compliance with this chapter up to but not exceeding the maximum penalty provided below. An election to request a hearing constitutes a waiver of the right to pay the civil penalty indicated on the parking violation notice and the Special Master, after such hearing, upon making a determination that a parking violation has been committed may impose a fine not to exceed $250.00, plus costs for each violation.
(3) The City of Leesburg shall be entitled to recoup reasonable administrative fees and costs associated with any hearing requested by a person receiving a parking violation notice or for hearings that are held by the Special Master of the City of Leesburg. Such fees and costs shall be due and payable by the person receiving the parking violation at the same time as the payment of the parking violation fine.
(4) The City of Leesburg is hereby authorized and directed to supply the State of Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles with a listing of persons, in a State Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles approved communications format, who have three (3) or more outstanding parking violations or one (1) or more parking violations of Florida Statute Section 316.955 or Florida Statute Section 316.1956, or any city ordinances which regulate similar parking in spaces for persons who have disabilities. In the event the City is required to forward to the State of Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles any lists of persons in accordance with this section then such persons shall be assessed all costs incurred by the City of Leesburg in supplying the information to the State.
All ordinances or part of ordinances which are in conflict with this Ordinance are hereby repealed, to the extent necessary to alleviate the conflict, but shall continue in effect insofar as they are not in conflict herewith, unless repeal of the conflicting portion destroys the overall intent and effect of any of the conflicting ordinance, in which case those ordinances so affected shall be hereby repealed in their entirety.
If any portion of this Ordinance is declared invalid or unenforceable, and to the extent that it is possible to do so without destroying the overall intent and effect of this Ordinance, the portion deemed invalid or unenforceable shall be severed herefrom and the remainder of the ordinance shall continue in full force and effect as if it were enacted without including the portion found to be invalid or unenforceable.
This Ordinance shall become effective upon its passage and adoption according to law.
PASSED AND ADOPTED at the regular meeting of the City Commission of the City of Leesburg, Florida, held on the ______ day of ______________, 2010.
By: ____________________________
City Clerk

subset: commoncrawl


text:
I had hoped to see dragonflies around the ponds and on the trail along the Passaic River, which flows along the eastern border of the park, but they were a lot less abundant than I expected. There were a lot of Eastern Forktails, like the one above, and some common dragonflies like Slaty Skimmer and Twelve-spotted Skimmer.
This darner took a break from flying around. I think it is a Swamp Darner, but it is difficult to be certain because of the distance and backlighting.
Butterflies were also a bit sparse, but it was nice to see this Appalachian Brown.
Spotted Lady Beetles were crawling all over the emergent vegetation in one of the ponds.
I only saw this Southern Leopard Frog because it happened to cross the path in front of me as I was walking. If it had kept still, I probably would have missed it.


text:
Title | Azerbaijan: Situation Analysis and Trend Assessment |
Publisher | WRITENET |
Publication Date | February 2008 |
Country | Azerbaijan |
Topics | Freedom of assembly and association | Freedom of expression | Freedom of information | Freedom of movement | Lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) |
Cite as | WRITENET, Azerbaijan: Situation Analysis and Trend Assessment, February 2008, available at: http://www.refworld.org/docid/4b8d20a72.html [accessed 7 May 2015] |
Disclaimer | This is not a UNHCR publication. UNHCR is not responsible for, nor does it necessarily endorse, its content. Any views expressed are solely those of the author or publisher and do not necessarily reflect those of UNHCR, the United Nations or its Member States. |


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Leaders of different religions, faiths, and practices may schedule an appointment on Thursday night for a 20 minute visit. No family members are allowed during this visitation unless prior approval from the Jail Administrator, Assistant Administrator, or the Sheriff.
Jail Ministry is provided by Way of the Cross Ministries (jail and prison ministries). They conduct a worship service and bible study once a week.
Crime Stopper Reports
Crimestoppers may pay a reward of up to $1,000 for an anonymous tip that leads to an arrest in any crime. Anonymous tips can be called into the Crimestoppers Tip Line 24 hours per day, seven days per week at (704) 736-8909.
Call the Lincoln
County (NC)
Tip Line
to Report a
Lincoln County Sheriff's Office
700 John Howell Memorial Dr. Lincolnton, NC 28092
704 732-9050 (Main Office)
704 732-9020 (Jail)


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Our Staff
You are here
Mark Bandre'
- Vice President for Enrollment Management
- Title IX Coordinator
- Ed.D. George Fox University
- M.S. Friends University
- B.S. Baker University
Esteban Paredes
- Director of Admissions
- M.S. Walden University
- B.A. Graceland University
Jessica Fuller
- Assistant Director of Admissions
- B.S. Kansas Wesleyan University
Renay Stithem
- Assistant Director of Admissions
- Regional Representative-Western Kansas
Angela Keopraseuth
- Admissions Processing Assistant
- B.A. Kansas Wesleyan University
Lauren Florea
- Admissions Counselor
- B.A. Heidelberg University, Tiffin, OH


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From Jean-Pierre Legendre
The Complete Höfner Violin Bass Story, produced by Steve Russell & Nick Wass, has now been published by Centerstream Publications. It is available from several outlets worldwide, including Amazon.
The Hofner Anniversary Book is now available
for purchase at the Thomann
Cyberstore and at Amazon.
325 pages of pure nostalgia with lots of
pictures from the Hofner Company Archives!
Hofner GmbH & Co - The
official site of the Hofner
Guitar Company. All the new models are featured here, together with
Naglav's excellent "Vintage Showroom" which catalogues the earlier
The Official Hofner Guitar MySpace Website - This is a new and very much interactive website which is hosted by Graham Stockley of Hofner UK.
Pyramid Strings - The Bubenreuth-based string manufacturer that has been supplying strings to the Hofner Company since the pre-World War days when both companies were together in Schoenbach. Every conceivable musical instrument string is listed on this website.
Collecting Hofner Vintage Guitars - Part of a much larger site, this must rate as just about the most detailed source of information on Hofner European/US market archtops available anywhere. Written by Stephen Candib.
Ramsay McKinnon's Hofner Guitar Project - The results of 12 years collecting of, and research into, the Selmer UK distributed Hofner archtop guitars from the 1950's and 60's.
German Jazz Guitars - A
website run by Konstantinos Zarifopoulos in Germany which showcases his very
impressive collection of German-made archtop guitars, many of which are hinh-end
Hofners. The photos on the site are stunning.
Alan Cramp's Just Jazz Guitars
Website - A site set up to showcase Alan's collection of vintage jazz
guitars, including Gibsons, D'Angelico, Guild,....and Hofner. There is also a
"For Sale" section on this website.
Katou Hidekazu's Website - This excellent Japanese site provides information on the Japanese-Market 500/1 Bass Guitars.
Verithin Geoff's Website - The site for all-things Verithin, run by Geoff Walton in Queensland, Australia.
Schlaggitarren - A brand new website run by Stefan Lob and which features his very extensive collection of German-made guitars of all makes, including Hofner.
Christian Hoyer's Personal Website - Dr. Hoyer is a professional
historian who specialises in research into the German musical
instrument industry.
- Vintage German Made Archtops Guitars - An
excellent website
produced in Japan that showcases all German manufacturers, including
Hofner. The
photos are stunning!
Carvin Museum -
Hofner supplied the necks used in the construction of Carvin guitars
and bass guitars during the 1960's and 70's. This superb website
documents all the many models made by Carvin over the years. (See
also Hofner/Carvin
Fact File)
site run by Will Halligan that, as well as dealing with the electronics
of electric guitars in general, also has very useful sections on Hofner
guitars. The Hofner section of the 1968 Selmer Catalogue is reproduced on this
Ericsson's Hofner Club Site -
The definitive website for the Hofner Club series guitars.
Smith's 1965 Hofner Site - A US
site that is based on George's 500/1 Hofner Bass. Some very nice detail
pictures here.
Guitars of the Beatles - This
site, run by John Crowley, is the
place for information on the Beatles' guitars, including of course the
Hofners which they used in their early days.
Hoagys Guitars - A new website dedicated to vintage archtop guitars and accessories. It has a bias towards German-made archtops, and features several nice Hofners which are owned by the website owner, Greg Hough. Some of the guitars on the site are also for sale.
Ruby Music - John Espinosa in Sydney, Australia, runs this site which as well as having a gallery of vintage basses for sale also has live music played by his band.
The BeatlesGear.com - A website dedicated to Paul Aujla's impressive collection of guitars and basses associated with the Beatles, including some Hofners,
Hofner Gitarenhobby - This features the collection of Herrie Kamphuis. A nice selection of Hofners, plus some other German, Czech, Italian, and Dutch made guitars from the 1960's and 70's.
Hounds Discussion Forum - Now resurrected and run
by Geoff Walton, this is THE forum for Hofner enthusiasts to discuss all
matters relating to Hofner guitars.
Vintage European Guitar Forum
- The "sister site" to Hofner Hounds, dealing with all the other
European makers such as Framus, Hoyer, Hopf, Hagstrom, and the Czech
makers, Drevokov and CSHN.
Beatgear Cavern Forum - Run
by Wes Cooksey, this forum is for discussion on Beatle related gear,
including the Hofner guitars and basses used by the Fab Four.
Vox Showroom - For
all things Vox, old and new. As well as lots of photos and info. on
just about every Vox amp, guitar, and keyboard ever made, it also has a
very intense discussion group attached.
"The Complete Story of the Hofner Violin Bass" - Written by
Steve Russell and Nick Wass, this book is essential reading for everyone
interested in the iconic Hofner 500/1 Violin Bass. It can be obtained worldwide
at Amazon.
"Hofner Guitars & Violins - A Celebration" - Written by Nick Wass, Harry Sibum, and Steve Russell to mark Hofner's 125 Year Anniversary. This is definitely not your usual reference book, but a 325 page volume packed full of old photos, historical documents, and a great deal of Hofner nostalgia! It can be obtained at the Thomann Cyberstore and at Amazon.
"Hofner - The Guitars that made the Beat Boom Happen" - Written by Nick Wass and Harry Sibum. Full of 1950's and 60's nostalgia, together with some great photos of Hofner guitars! Unfortunately no longer available.
"The Hofner Guitar, A History" - Written
by Gordon
and Neville Martin, published by IMP Books. This very readable British
book deals with the Selmer period, and gives very good information on
dating Hofners from that time.
"Hofner-Guitars Made in Germany" - Written
by Michael
published Ulrich Plaumann (Germany). Full of photographs of just about
every Hofner, guitars and basses, made. An excellent book!
Click HERE
to order direct, or write to Michael Naglav, Pestalozzidorf 14 c 45964
Gladbeck, Germany (Tel # 049 2043 44316)
"Electro-Gitarren Made in Germany" - Written by Norbert Schnepel and Helmuth Lemme. A more general book than the one above, as it covers most of the more famous German guitar makers, including Hofner. Obtainable from Musikkeller
"Hofner Violin 'Beatle' Bass" -
Written by Joe Dunn. The 500/1 Bass
player's bible!
"The Ultimate Guitar Book" - Written by
Bacon and Paul
Day, published by Dorling Kindersley. A book that covers most
manufacturers of guitars, with a page or two on Hofners.
"Seventeen Watts" - By Mo Foster,
by Sanctuary
Publishing Ltd. A book which describes, with anecdotes from many of the
guitar pioneers, the first 20 years of British Rock History. Not
specifically written on guitars, but Hofners appear time and again in
the text and photographs. Amusing and very entertaining!
"Beatles Gear" - By Andy Babiuk, published
by Backbeat Books.
It's just as the title says...Gretsch, Rickenbacker, Vox, Gibson,
Futurama, Selmer, and of course the early Hofners! A "must have" for
every vintage gear (and Beatle) enthusiast.
"Framus - Built in the Heart of Bavaria" - By Dr. Christian Hoyer. This book deals with the Framus Company history, part of which during the immediate post-war years was entwined with that of the Hofner Company. Obtainable via the Framus and Framus Vintage websites.
Red Barn - The Facebook page of James Payze and John Cooper, who carry out repairs and restoration projects on all makes of guitars and amps in Braintree, Essex .
The Hofner House - Harry Sibum's website which included superb photography of lovely old Hofners. Harry carries out restoration work on vintage Hofner guitars. He is also compiling a schedule of Van Wouw serial numbers.
Project Guitar Parts - A UK company selling original vintage, new Hofner, and reproduction spares for Hofner guitars and basses. Alan Exley runs this company.
Sound Affects
- Probably the UK's biggest supplier of all of Hofner's current models.
Based in the market town of Ormskirk, Lancashire.
Old Hat Guitars - This must be one of the vintage guitar market's biggest secrets. Based in a store in Horncastle, Lincolnshire, England, Old Hat carry a very large inventory of old guitars and amps, with quite a number of old Hofners.
Fretted Americana - A retail store in Los Angeles, California which has a large stock of extremely high quality vintage guitars, including Hofners. David Brass, the owner, works very hard to ensure that the descriptions and provenance of his stock is 100%.
is Parts - A US company selling spares for Hofner guitars and
basses, and for many other vintage makes, such as Vox, Marshall, Bigsby, and
Vintage Guitars -
Run by Nino Fazio in Italy. Some Hofners, but also many stunning
American instruments. The "Playmate of the Month" feature on the
website is a must!!
Marnic Instruments
- A company owned by Ton Paulussen in The Netherlands that retails
current CT Hofners, together with own-brand Marnic budget guitars and
Guitar Swing - A nice sounding German three-piece string/swing band.
Rolf Carlsson - Superb classy music from Sweden. Rolf is also a Hofner President player!
Nervous Records - Old-style Rock n Roll and Rockabilly!
The Dave Cartwright Website - Dave has been a professional musician for many years, recording, appearing on TV, and performing live all over the world.
508 Park - A Texas-based band that have a wide repertory.
TonePedia - A social site for guitarists where they can find and explore guitars and gear based on their sound. Users can open a profile and add their gear to it. When they add gear they can also upload a sound sample of it and even describe other gear that took part in the recording (pedal, amp, etc).
The History of British Rock 'n' Roll: The Forgotten Years - A book written by Robin Bell which provides the definitive story of the British popular music scene between 1956 and 1962. These really are the "Forgotten Years"!
Rockbeare Guitars - Features a UK-based collection of guitars, amps, and associated gear, together with a blog and feedback facillity.
F. Charle Instruments de Musique à Cordes - A very classy shop in Paris that deals equally classy acoustic guitars including Selmer-Maccaferri.
Irish 60's Showbands Vintage Instruments Museum - A superb record of the Showbands and which instruments they used back in the 1960's. Hofner guitars and basses were very popular with them!
Broadway Guitars Website
- Details of the old guitars marketed by Rose-Morris in the UK during
the early
1960's. A Broadway 1921 Solid was my own first guitar!
Guitars - An
Italian site run by Stefano Aria, which is full of old European
guitars, including some Hofners. A must for the connoisseur of "cool"
and very unusual guitars!
Official Bert Weedon Website - Provides
information on "Mr Hofner" of the 1950's and early 60's. Famous for his
guitar tutor "Play in a Day", it has been said that Bert made the big
time with "A Yard of German plywood".
The Sandstorms - A book all about life with this Bournemouth band back in the late 1950's and early 1960's. This really does capture the vibes from the old days!! (See below:
Rock Cellar Magazine - An on-line magazine which has an emphasis on the band and artists from the past.
The Reslosound Website - Everything that you need to know about the famous microphones that were use by all the UK bands in the 50's and 60's.
The Ace Frehley Guitars Website - A site produced by John Tate that provided full details of all the Gibson Les Paul guitars used by Ace Frehley of "Kiss".
Telesforo Julve Website - Produced by Ton Bogaard in order to record the history of the Julve Classical guitars made in Valencia, Spain
A book by Robin Bell which describes the music scene in the UK from 1956 to 1962 - "The Forgotten Years".
Available on Amazon in both Paperback and Kindle Editions.
Click HERE to visit Robin Bell's Website for further details.
A book written by Roger Downton based on his experiences as a member of "The Sandstorms" in late 1950's/early 1960's Bournemouth.
Price £5-95 plus Delivery.
Order your copy by clicking HERE.
Vintage Vertigo, written by Francois Charle, André Duchossoir and Arnaud Legrand, is full of vintage guitars associated with the French music scene over the years.
The Vintage Vertigo website is at http://www.vintagevertigo.fr/
24 CARAT GOLD -PLATED GIVE YOUR HOFNER A TREAT! Contact : Andrew Morgan (UK) Bob Cocozza (USA) |


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Jim Flood
Jim Flood, a chemist by profession, is a member of Amateur Astronomers, Inc.
His project is the LAST of 13 amateur projects to be
scheduled on the Hubble Space Telescope.
His research is the Morphology of the active nucleus and
radial filaments of NGC 1808, using the WFPC2 instrument.
His observations of NGC 1808 were made on August 14, 1997.
Title: Morphology of the active nucleus and radial filaments of NGC 1808 - Proposal 6872 Abstract: A high resolution examination of the galactic core of NGC 1808 can resolve questions as to the nature of it's energetic core "hot spots" variously attributed to unusual circumnuclear starburst activity, massive supernova remnants or black hole accretion disk models. Also present are pronounced radial dust filaments streaming from the core of NGC 1808 in association with large gaseous polar outflows, suggestive of galactic fountaining. |
Maintained by BDM
Page last updated 2/3/98


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Reader's Request: Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer Review
You fancy a smooth, creamy, dreamy, moisturizing, easy to blend, long wearing concealer to brighten up your eye area and make you look well rested and pretties all day long?
What you need is Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer!
Click it for the review.
A lovely reader asked me for a few reviews on Kevin Beautymaker cosmetics and I'm happy to bring them to her (and you) as I have a ton in my beauty arsenal.
Time and time again it's proven that Asian brands are far superior at creating unique, inexpensive cosmetics that are high quality and positively brilliant in all aspects.
Taiwanese brand Kevin Beautymaker is an extremely inexpensive cosmetic brand that's rich in some seriously great products one of which is the Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer.
Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer is specifically designed for use around the eyes as it contains light brightening particles to conceal dark circles and uneven skin tone and I promise it does just that. When I originally got this concealer I was terribly disappointed as it was very dark for a shade 1. It's only available in three shades so I went with the lightest and it appeared way to beige in the container. But blended in it's a near perfect color match and manages to conceal dark circles while creating a beautiful airbrush finish. It's highly moisturizing and blends a treat so it won't creep into fine lines, cake or crease and wears incredibly long for such a moist concealer. Honestly, it would make a fine dupe for another Taiwanese concealer I love which is Shills Eletric Eye Concealer. The formulas are nearly identical. Strangely enough you'd think that such a moisturizing concealer wouldn't wear so well and or wear long. For the most part Aqua Eye Concealer is quite like Bobbi Brown Concealer in many aspects but it's a little denser which makes it beautiful to work with and blend. As mentioned I thought that this would quickly wear a way as the formula is very moist but it actually stands the test of humidity and warm weather and will stay on pretty much all day without touch ups in between.
The concealer can be used on it's own but for added brightening and concealing you can prep prior with Kevin Beautymaker Color Correcting Eyelid Primer. This can be used to conceal dark circles or used as a prep above the eye a la Benefit Lemon Aid.
I got this concealer off of Payeasy but it's on E-bay and also Imomoko for around $13.99 or so. Although that's almost over a 50% mark up I still think it's a very good deal as the concealer simply works incredibly!
If you like your concealers highly moisturizing and pigmented enough to create a good flawless finish under your eyes, Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer is a fabulous choice. Try it, the Muse knows you'll love it! It's so good it qualifies for HG material.
Muse Approval for purchase!
11/7/09 0:29 Amy:
which would you say is more moisturizing, beautymaker or bobbi brown?
and how much was shipping from payeasy? ebay and imomoko are so overpriced T^T
11/9/09 10:15 the Muse:
hi amy.
they are all about the same in regards to moisture, bobbi brown is a bit more coverage for older eyes though. Payeasy doesn't ship to the US. Ebay and Imomoko are the only places you'll be able to get it unless you have a friend in Taiwan to CP it for you. Hope this helps!
1/23/10 6:17 Min:
I would like to enquire that what is the difference between Shills Eletric Eye Concealer and Kevin Beautymaker Aqua Eye Concealer? Which one better?
1/26/10 14:19 the Muse:
hi min NOT much actually. They almost seem the same product!!!!!!!! The only difference is that the Shills one seems a little more emollient and tacky so it does tend to stick around a little longer than the KB!
Hope this helps!
If you have $$ I'd buy both they are both incredible!
6/16/10 23:04 Tracy:
This concealer looks amazing! And I plan on purchasing it but I'm debating over which shade I should buy. In mac shades, I'm around an nc30, which shade should I get, #2 or #3? Thanks!
6/17/10 9:18 the Muse:
tracy I'm around nc25-30 and I purchased number 1. not sure what 2 or 3 looks like but 1 suits me fine.
7/24/10 11:39 Angelina:
I have this concealer! But sadly..it kinda cakes up on me after like a couple for hours? It's like it's dried up and you can see like brown residue or something. Am I applying it wrong? ):
7/27/10 5:32 the Muse:
sorry to hear angelina this doesn't happen to me. weird!
9/12/12 13:18 bean:
omg i see Kevin in teevees so much but i didnt know he could actually make makeup!! (hes a famous makeup artist/teacher in Taiwan)


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Looking for a memorable stay at one of Singapore's best hotels or a unique gastronomic experience? Check out Goodwood Park Hotel's very special dining, event and accommodation offers!
LIKE us on Facebook for regular updates and information.
Please click here for Corporate loyalty program.
Abalone Delights at Min Jiang at One-North
From 15 July to 14 August 2014, this luxurious sea treasure will be the limelight at Min Jiang at One-North. Indulge in Master Chef Goh Chee Kong's creative dishes that bring out the succulence of the Australian abalones.
Menu Highlights include:
Abalone Trio Platter ($28 per person)
This gorgeous plate features three dainty appetisers – the invigorating Abalone roll with green apple and truffle oil, a luxe 'yong tau foo'-inspired Pan-fried abalone stuffed with prawn paste and a variation of the restaurant's popular dumpling: Steamed 'xiao long bao' with mini abalones.
Braised 4-Head Abalone with Millet Broth ($48 per person)
Fried Abalone with Pine Nuts in Spicy Sauce ($14 per person)
Fried Rice with Baby Abalone and Fresh Crabmeat ($28 per person)
For guests who cannot get enough of abalone, a 6-Course Abalone Indulgence Set Menu is also available at $128 per person (min 2 persons).
For reservations, please call Min Jiang at One-North at +65 6774 0122, or email: email@example.com.
Prices are subject to 10% service charge and prevailing government taxes. Menu is subject to seasonal availability.


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