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Can the writer of this article really be so uninformed? Will the ceasefire lead to peace? Are you serious?
We have a cease fire with an organization which in its Charter has the following Article 7:
"The hour of judgment shall not come until the Muslims fight the Jews and kill them, so that the Jews hide behind trees and stones, and each tree and stone will say: 'Oh Muslim, oh servant of Allah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him,' except for the Gharqad tree, for it is the tree of the Jews."
Article 7 is taken from Hadith Bukhari Volume 4, Book 52, Number 177 and quotes the Prophet Muhammad:
Narrated Abu Huraira: Allah's Apostle said, "The Hour will not be established until you fight with the Jews, and the stone behind which a Jew will be hiding will say. "O Muslim! There is a Jew hiding behind me, so kill him."
Does the author want to guess what has greater sway over Hamas- the terms of cease-fire agreement or the words of the Prophet?
The first chart in this article, rockets fired from Gaza into Israel, makes two important things precisely clear: why Israel invaded Gaza the last time, and that Israel's incursion into Gaza, widely criticized as having accomlished "nothing" could not be more misleading and incorrect. The number of rockets "skyrocketed" prior to Israel's incursion--in fact, caused it--and immediately after the Israeli withdrawal, Israel had accomlished her goal. The rocketry diminished more than dramatically.
Now we see that "diplomacy" has been "credited" with preventing such a military incursion, while the Palestinians achieved their goal of having the blockade lifted.
In exchange for staying out of Gaza with its military forces, Israel received money from the US to build more Iron Dome defenses.
Thus we see the so called balanced approach leading to more war: making it even easier for Gaza to attain more rockets and making it easier for Israel to shoot most of them down before they do any damage.
Diplomacy kicks cans down the road, but as the cans travel down the road, they grow larger.
Charts and graphs and wishful thinking are meaningless, and I am surprised that TE would publish such a juvenile article.
One side wishes to exist on someone else's land, and one side wishes to eliminate the other. How can a graph add anything to this struggle? If TE had published a similar story in 1940 would it have lead to "peace?" What is important is the objectives of the decision-makers and the options open to them. You don't need a chart or graph for that.
I don't support either "side" in this "struggle" but I do feel sorry for the innocents drawn into the nightmare. But if someone was shooting rockets at me and my family I would be more than justified in responding with deadly force even when the enemy is hiding in schools and residential neighborhoods. Just as in 1944, you have to kill the bad guy no matter where he hides. Does that sound bad? Or do you wish Nazi's were still in Paris??? Excuses for doing nothing are easy to find. Life is not fair.
Not a bad analysis except for the "someone else's land" part, which is dead wrong.
The Ottoman Turks LOST World War I. The Turkish Caliphate was destroyed. The Allied Armies were now in charge. The Islamic Ottomans were no longer in control.
Now when Istanbul had been called Constantinople, it was because Christians, known in Islam as "Infidels" were in control. The Muslims laid siege to Constantinople in 1453 and took over the city. Now Islam was in control. Islam took "someone else's land" and held it until they lost it, and especially Jerusalem, in World War I. The illusion that it was "someone else's land" is a lie perpetuated by Islam, which Islam itself believes.
It is taught in the Qur'an and in the Hamas Charter that if Muslims ever conquer land it is consecrated to them until Judgement Day. The rest of the world should know that land belongs to the last conquerer. It became Allied land, to do with as the Allied Armies saw fit, after the defeated Ottoman Turks signed the peace Treaty of Versailles after World War I.
The Allies carved up the entire region which had been the Turkish Ottoman Caliphate (one political unit) into multiple nation states. It partitioned one section, separating warring Muslims from Jews. This land was under the control of the Allies, the VICTORS in World War I.
So, no, sorry, it was not "someone else's land" when it was partitioned, and it is Israel's land today. If Islamic forces retake it, and only then, will it be "theirs" . Such is the law of war in the real world.
Like it or not, the Jews who have come to Israel since 1900 are colonists in every sense of the word. The American colonists solved their land theft problem by eliminating most of the native people and rounding up the others and putting them in camps (reservation). But that was the 18th and 19th century. Modern society and world opinion will not allow that today. The South African colonists tried it , and that didn't work out too well. The Palestinians were the lawful residents of Palestine until they were displaced in 1948. Basically, Israel today is in violation of international law. But reality demands some form of real compromise. apartheid and a Bantustan republic will not work. Israeli politicians are just not yet ready to accept that fact.
Nice try. But unfortunately … THE FACTS ARE DIFFERNT AND YOU LIE!
In 1947, the UN voted to create 2 states on the land termed Mandate Palestine … one Arab and one Jewish … these were their terms!
The Jewish State was declared on May 14, 1948 … the Arab State was NEVER CREATED …
From Nov 1947 to May 1248 … the indigenous Arab/Muslims began a CIVIL WAR against the Jewish population
From May 1948 - Armistice in 1949 … 5 Arab States attacked the nascent Jewish State aiming to annihilate the population … Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and various Jihadis … the Arab Armies were rebuffed and during the war (both the Civil and the War of Independence that followed) … there were 650K indigenous Arab/Muslims that were uprooted AND WERE NEVER ALLOWED BACK INSIDE THE JEWISH STATE … that's the history …
When the Arab/Muslims are ready to accept a sovereign, strong, Jewish State of Israel … there can be a basis to allow for the creation of anotheer Arab/Muslim state for the Filistans … 2 States for 2 Peoples!
Not before!
@ ColoradoJack re: "The Palestinians were the lawful residents of Palestine until they were displaced in 1948."
1.If you are going to claim these are modern times, and modern society and world opinion will not allow reservations like the American Indian reservations, are you not equally required to demand in modern times that the Arabs tolerate the Jews who immigrated to their region peacefully and legally? The only reason that the Brits ultimately chose Partition was precisely because the Arabs were completely intolerant of the Jews. In America, people are tolerant of immigrants; no partition required.
2. The people to which you refer were not all displaced in 1948. Many Arabs remained through the war (proving that they were not driven out by the Jews) and they and their progeny live in Israel as citizens and representatives to Parliament today, representing a full 20 percent of the population of Israel. These are not the Arabs sworn to displace "ever inch" the state of Israel. They, too, were lawful residents, just like the people whose rights you claim, and just as were the Jews who travelled there (as did every American who crossed the oceans to get to America, except the natives) and purchased land.
However, all the Jews living in the attacking Arab nations WERE displaced in 1948. I don't see you crying for their property rights, because Israel was there for them, which is precisely the reason she was founded. . .to be "there" when Arabs and Nazis displace their people and drive them away and no one else will accept them.
So when you refer to "the Palestinians" as meaning "all" and to the Jews as if the were not lawful residents in the region just because they immigrated there, you are incorrect on both counts. Not to mention that many of your lawful Arab residents were responsible for the ultimate partition precisely because of their inability and unwillingness to tolerate people of a different culture.
As for " Basically, Israel today is in violation of international law." How about this "international law"-- It is the pre-amble to the UN Charter:
Article 1
The Purposes of the United Nations are:
1.To maintain international peace and security, and to that end: to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace, and for the suppression of acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace, and to bring about by peaceful means, and in conformity with the principles of justice and international law, adjustment or settlement of international disputes or situations which might lead to a breach of the peace;...
I don't see you claiming that the attack on the new state of Israel one day after she was founded, by 5 surrounding Arab armies, was "an act of aggression" or arguing that the other Arab states should have taken "effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace" caused by these attacking nations.
It is warring and intransigent Arabs and Islamic intolerance and adherence to religious Jihad, and not the Israeli politicians, who both created and maintain the current state of affairs.
So, the War now underway is natural. It is Peace that is unnatural. Good. Now tell the Americans that, and stop confusing Jewish Americans.
Israel has been out to conquer the holy land to which it allegedly has ownership rights, from the very beginning. The UN mandated strip of land created in 1947 was only the "supply base" for furthur operations. Israel has a duty to conquer and drive the "heathen" (Palastinians) out. Israel has been promised victory by Jehovah (read: American bible freaks)
Therefore Israel will continue to provoke the Arabs in order to elicit a response, which is then used to conquer(grab) more territory, tighten furthur the screws on the captives, and force as many of them off their land as possible. The territory available for a Palistinian existence is shrinking fast thanks to this "provoke-elicit-hammer-provoke-elicit-hammer" cycle.
It's a real pity that the Arabs proved themselves hopelessly incompetent in countering Israeli expansion. Maybe they should have acquainted themselves with the Torah a bit better, to know what the real sentiment of the Jewish people is. The holocaust is only the shoehorn being used to squeeze the foot into the boot.
The Arabs have lost, and the only consolation seems to be a two state solution, but that is also "showing them the showers before being gassed". This Palestinian state will be suffocated, poisoned and eventually annexed again. As a matter of fact, there already is a Palistinian state. It's called "Gaza strip" .
Two state solution? It's already there, so whats all the fuss about?
You asked for it... you got it! Two state solution!
just because some book (revered by some part of world) mentions some 'holy land' , it does not give the license to kill innocents, to suffocate them economically, to orphan kids,why all this? just to attain the things written in a book ..have we lost all reason ...have we got brains ..are you any different from nazis who executed jews just because hitler wrote it in nazi manifesto...nazi officers were just following their revered leader's manifesto!
migration has been happening since ages..may be jews were forced to move out/leave...may be there were atrocities on jews in the barbarious ages....why tit for tat now! when will this irrationality end! why dont just live and let others live as well
Israel is not governed by her fundamentalists bible thumpers. Hamas is indeed governed by hers.
Hamas teaches, not in its bible, but in its charter--its constitution-- that it is the Islamic duty of her people to take back all lands ever won by Muslims in conquest if control over such lands should ever leave Islam.
UcolLibrary you have educated yourself on the propaganda of Hamas and Islam to the exclusion of the very reason you call upon your readers to exercise.
There isn't "some book" mentioning some "holy land" --a statement like that completely overlooks the Qur'an and the Hamas Charter and what is written in the latter as the constitution for Islamic reconquest of the lands lost to them in their defeat in World War I.
"Are you any different from Nazis who executed Jews just because Hitler wrote it?" is so naive one wonders where to begin. First, you could make that statement against every single warring power. Have you asked the Syrians about that, for example? In war, people do get killed.
You object to what you refer to as the execution of Hamas leadership, but in effect you object to any deaths in any part of Gaza, no matter that Gazans attempt to murder Israelis. Gazans engage in suicide bombings? Rocketry into Israeli civilian areas? Blowing up ambulances, kindergartens, busses full of civilians or children?
From your perspective, Israel is like the Nazis if she responds in any way that leads to any deaths in Gaza. If she were to indiscriminately send tockets back into Gazan civilian populations, to you that would be "like the Nazis". When Israel targets Hamas leadership, the entire point is to prevent the deaths of innocent Gazan civilians and to place the penalty on those who are creating and carrying out Hamas policy. But to you, that is not acceptable either.
To you, Israel may do nothing in retaliation for the murders of her people or else they are like the Nazis. Sorry but your position is without foundation and extremely naive of actual history and informed by nothing but Islamist hate propaganda.
The way to resolve the Gaza predicament:
1. Allow for a monitored free movement of people and goods between Muslim-Arab Gaza and Muslim-Arab Egypt
2. Gradually, close all access between Israel and Gaza, to people and goods alike
3. Begin to develop, with the professional and economic - not including financial!! - assistance of the international community, the agricultural and tourist potential in Gaza and northern Sinai
4. Seek the financial assistance for the economic development from other Suni-Muslim-Arab states
The goal to be aimed is the development of a self-sustaining economic region consisting of Gaza and northern Sinai, that can, in time, expand into the rest of Sinai. Such an economic development is, practically, the answer to the drive by some in the Muslim-Arab world to perpetuate the deadly conflict and strife with Israel.
Well meaning and well thought out "solutions" like this always overlook a giant problem: the radical Islamist fundamentalist teachings and drive to eliminate the Israeli presence from the area .
Read the Hamas Charter of 1988, Unabridged, and then get back to us with you solution to THAT.
I totally agree with you. Sadly, what motivates the Islamists of Gaza before all else is the 7th century-based ideology, an outcome of which is Israel's demise and the annihilation of the Jews who dwell in it.
Yehuda, have YOU read the Hamas Charter of 1988, Unabridged?
What it is, is a carefully thought out road map to drive Israel and Israelis completely out of the area; the goal is not one inch for Israel. The goal is also to regain all lands Islam has ever won through conquest (Article XI, among others), and it is truly astonishing to me how people in those other lands are oblivious, even as we see it occurring.
It includes some very disturbing strategies in every imaginable area: religion used as strategy is one such disturbing element; another is education--the goal (in which they have succeeded) was to eliminate all vestiges of Western ideas and ideals to such an extent that only one narrative exists: the Islamist narrative which makes it a moral and religious imperative to never listen to any Westerner and to believe that the West, in its entirety, is the everlasting enemy of Islamists.
I ask again, have you actually read this strategy as it appears in the Hamas Charter of 1988, Unabridged, and noticed how the steps they have taken, the speeches their leaders give, the actions they take with respect to geo/political goals, are all in progress now?
Indeed, I have read it, unabridged, in Arabic, and I fully agree with you: this is a road map bring about Israel's demise and the annihilation of the Jewish community of this tiny ancestral homeland of the Jewish people.
Well, the solution to the Hamas Charter is to have fewer people following the Hamas Charter (or to have the Charter changed, but I'm less optimistic of that).
If you can give them a realistic economic future, a lot smaller fraction of the population is going to enthusiastically follow the Charter. (Not none, just a smaller fraction.) Hamas would (probably) respond to that by inciting incidents of violence, and Israel would probably respond to some of them. This would cause people to be angry with Israel, but it would also cause some of them to be angry with Hamas.
My conclusion: Israel could do a lot worse than promoting the prosperity and economic development of the Gaza Strip.
You said: "If you can give them a realistic economic future …"
'give them' … they have to want it! You would know better if you were a parent … let them 'earn it' … let them 'want it' … giving it to them doesn't accomplish that goal.
The Filiatanis have been given lots of $$$ and look what they've done with it!!!! Lined the pants of their leaders and left the majority WITHOUT HOPE!
Let them earn their own $$$$ … their decision making has been awful for 65 Years … it will remain awful if we continue to feed them … they need to FEED THEMSELVES … go through the hardships … struggles … and understand they are not on the 'worlds' dole … welfare … ANY LONGER.
@rsg england
"The Economist calls this latest local skirmish a war .It was not a war
The Israeli Goverment went in with limited objectives and pretty much acheived them .
1 ) Reduce the rockets and mortars being fired at Israeli civilians
2 ) Reduce Hamas' military capability
3 ) Reduce Hamas, store of weaponry
4 ) Reduce Hamas' means of resupply"
You forgot to add
5) Reduce the number of Palestinian Children
6) Reduce the number of Palestinian civilians
Look at the first chart, on the number of rocket attacks by Hamas into Israeli civilian population preceding the Israeli operation in 2008. The number just spikes on the chart, which indicates not an attempt to reduce the number of Palestinian children and civilians, but quite the opposite.
The Israeli reaction, had it been real war, would and could have been to level Gaza and drive everyone out. You are naive to misunderstand the difference between a military operation to stop rockets falling onto one's civilian territory and war with a powerful military opponent, capable of totally destroying your people, who do not.
Sure you can get rid of the Palestinians just like Nazi did to the Jews. Both are quite similar in mentality.
It is a logic of thieves lead by Bibi.
Go back to 1967 line.
That is the only way to have a peaceful life.
You know Israel is supported only by USA and micronesians in the international society? First and foremost you have no rights to blame the rockets from Hamas.
You live in a orphanage. In a concrete wall and iron dome.
You said: "… just like Nazi did to the Jews"
This statement is anti-Semitic hate speech. Your comparison is odious … sulphurous … in the 'world' you inhabit … that is, the Arab/Muslim world … anti-Semitic hate speech is not called out. It's part of the daily speech. BUT NOT HERE NOT MOW. Words lead to actions and actions lead to death. The deaths you wish on the Jews/Zionists/Israelis … I FLING right back at you at 50:1 Inshallah!
No, I am not anti-semitic. The Jews in Israel are racists.
Israekis are enjoying beautiful life in orchards where they stole from Palestines. Their GDP per capita is more than Portugal and they have been receiving $3 billion from US + same amount of free militaru aid, while Gazans are forced to live in the seige by Israelis. You know all countries in the UN except US and Micronesians do not agree with your rhetoric. 5-6 death of Jews is nothing compared to the agony born by the Gazans. Daily Gazans are dying due to extremely poor conditions forced by Israel. They are dying during the period of no firockets. Israel is responsible for all those too-early deaths in Gaza and the West Bank. Who else other than Nazis impose such harsh conditions while claiming herself a free and democratic country? Or that one of De Klerk of former South Africa?
You need to open your ears!!
Here's a start:
I don't know how old YOU ARE? But most people on this blog don't remember 1973 … but even if you do … here's a reminder of where the world was pre-1973 and after 1973 … vis a vis the Arab/Israeli Conflict … and I do mean Arab vs Israeli Conflict!
Let me know your thoughts after listening to the logic … of a Canadian energy expert … (I'm proud of the fact he's Canadian as well)
it all started in 1948
if not, then 1967.
mr.solomon, a jew.
soon, you will hear that israeli mossad killed yasir arafat with radioactive agent. moosad are killers. israelis are killers. (not all jews are killers, though9.
And, if the story in the Jerusalem Post about Hamas refusing to stop the smuggling of arms into Gaza is not shocking enough, I strongly invite all to view the following in YouTube:
"Mahmoud Al Zahar reveals Hamas' genocidal agenda - shocking!"
The Israelis never considered this latest engagement as a war but only as an 'operation'. This terminology clearly reflects that Israelis have no huge aspirations or optimism for the long term future .They regard the Hamas as a delinquent teenager who might with enough punishment finally realise terrorising the neighbourhood is not good for him either. But they are aware that more punishments might still be applied in the future. Over 70% of the Israeli population wanted this operation to continue. Although Israel is war weary, life with the rockets simply can not continue as it was.
A strange interlude where both leaders claimed that they won & both peoples feel that their leaders were wrong.
Yet they were all correct. And here is why:
The Israeli Government aimed to cease & deter. Hamas aimed to survive, gain local recognition and support. The cessation has been obtained. The deterrence is in place because the Hamas survived and may not do so again [after all after the Hezbollah's pounding that side did not enter the affray].
But more than this. Egypt's Morsi now has endorsed and taken upon himself the guardianship' of the Hamas. Morsi who is beholden to the US & her largesses can not forgo these largesses. Egypt would collapse. Morsi will never chose to passively allow the Hamas to re-arm and endanger the vital US monies he so needs.
The linkage of Morsi to the Hamas and US was a great victory for both Israel & the Hamas as one. For Israel vicariously so as Israel's benefits are governed by the US funding factor. The power of which Israel only too well understands herself.
Neither of the peoples in Israel or Gaza take this more esoteric and yet extremely significant factor into consideration. Their reflection on and conclusion about the events is negatively influenced accordingly.
But there are many added and significant bonuses. The Iranian hold over Hamas is broken. The Obama policy concept of a malleable Muslim Brotherhood is vindicated.
Gaza resorts to the pre 1967 Egyptian hegemony with the significant difference of the Egyptian - Israeli peace. Meanwhile, surely but unnoticed the Muslim Brotherhood is close to a Jordanian success. In these circumstances are we to see the West Bank resort to the pre-1967 Jordanian model with the significant Jordanian - Israeli peace in place?
Exciting times.
Remember that the virtual Egptian victory in 1973 enabled the opening of the eventually successful peace.
"Morsi who is beholden to the US & her largesses can not forgo these largesses." Oh? Well that suggests that his latest step, turning himself into the next Egyptian dictator, is with the blessing of the US,because by withholding funds, the US could turn that particular action around, if it so wished.
A rhetorical question, but however many lives are saved by the cease fire makes the deal worthwhile for now. Appeasement does not work with Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who demand the annihilation of Israel and openly reject a 2-state solution - there is nothing to negotiate about.
The length of that peace (and of international funding to Egypt), depends on whether Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood act as gatekeepers to keep rockets out of Gaza or, more likely, simply provide an easy route for their 'brothers in arms' to replenish stock piles that were successfully reduced by Israeli military action.
The status quo remains, which is that Israel's survival hinges on its military capability to counter the asymmetrical terrorism from its neighbouring states - force is the only common language between these opposing ideologies. Drones will be needed to supplement missile shields in countering unconventional warfare of Muslim extremists targeting soft civilian targets such as children. Hillary Clinton would be wise to heed Obama's advice and back off centre stage - public American meddling inflames the Middle East, whose wars have cost the US taxpayer dearly. Spare us your desire for the limelight, dear lady, and go do something useful behind the scenes.
You've missed the point … WHY SHE WAS THERE! IT WASN'T FOR MORE TV TIME … IF OBAMA DIDN'T WANT HER THERE … SHE COULD NOT HAVE GONE … HELLO?
IT WAS HER PRESENCE AT THE PENULTIMATE MOMENT … THAT 'MADE' THE DEAL HAPPEN … SHE GUARANTEES WHAT MORSI HAS GUARANTEED TO ISRAEL … THAT'S THE POINT … ISRAEL NEEDED THE AMERICAN GUARANTEE TO KEEP MORSI FROM SAYING SOMETIME IN THE FUTURE … 'that's not what I said' or something like it … capeesh?
The Economists asks: Will the ceasefire lead to peace?
How can Israel make peace with people, who can't even keep peace among themselves?.
Hamas fights PLO
Shi'ite flight Sunnis
Salafists fight Christians.
Humus fights Falafel (only in Arab countries). over who is the "real deal"?
Iranians fight Arabs
The list goes on and on.
Peace will come when Muslim clerics will stop preaching hared of Jews.
And the Israelis kill everyone in the mid east who is not Jewish. Your two bit police state is doomed.
So riddle me this?
Why are 1.2 MILLION ARAB/MUSLIMS LIVING INSIDE THE STATE OF ISRAEL AS FREE CITIZENS? Why are they spared? Why are they prospering? Why are they sitting in the Israeli Parliament? Why are they sitting as Justices on the Supreme Court? Why are they doctors practicing alongside their Jewish colleagues? Why are their standard of living better than ALL the surrounding Arab/Muslim states? Why are they able to carry on their religious practices without fear of interference?
You are mislead or ignorant! Either way … you're a 'pawn in the game' … of the Arab/Muslim Islamist agenda. It's so clear to me that the Arab/Muslims masses are 'pawns in the game' … BECAUSE … their leaders require them to react without thinking … this is a 'crime against humanity' …
In the past … this was allowed to pass … BUT there is ONE AVENGER … ONE STATE ABLE TO SLAY THIS DRAGON … THE STATE OF ISRAEL and the Western Powers nobly acknowledging their right to defend themselves … INCLUDING the USA … CANADA … BRITAIN … FRANCE … AUSTRALIA … et al Notice … these are all liberal democracies who understand the situation Israel finds itself … My mother always said something like (it was in Russian): You can tell who YOU are by the FRIENDS you keep!
This kind of statement does not help your cause. It makes one look foolish.
mtweng, the suggestion that peace will not come until the Israelis "kill everyone in the mid east who is not Jewish" is not based upon fact, now, is it? It is simply your attempt to turn around what IS factual, turn fact into lie, just as a knee jerk propaganda effort.
What IS factual is that Israel could kill everyone in the mid east who is not Jewish, and could have done so for some time now, but has not, would not and will not.
Killing everyone in the mid east who is not Jewish is the antithesis of the goal of Israelis; but killing every Jew in Israel, and driving out the Christians from Arab lands, IS the goal of Islamists.
Jews WERE ethnically cleansed from surrounding Arab states to the tune of 650,000 expelled in 1948. They didn't flee as refugees from a war; they were unequivocally driven out. Expelled.
Coptic Christians are being slaughtered today in Egypt. Jews cannot enter many Arab countries. Christian bibles cannot even enter Saudi Arabia, the greatest exporter of terror in the Middle East.
The Charter of Hamas contains many segments in which it simply repeats that the goal is to kill Jews, kill the Jews, kill the Jews.
It's a war for thousands of years.
Yourassisbig wrote that "It's a war for thousands of years," but didn't detail how it began, or when.
In the early 7th Century, Islam began its military expansion. For over 1,300 years their war has continued, whether they have been in military ascendancy or descendancy. Their primary enemies throughout that time have been societies established by Christians and Jews,and their goal has been the spread of Sharia law through Islam, whether by the sword, or, more recently, through immigration into Western lands. The object of this latter immigration, unlike immigration to, say, the US, is not to assimilate into the existing society and culture,but rather to gain sufficient numbers to force the existing society to submit to Sharia law and to Islam. I am not making this up. Their own leaders write it, say in speeches, say it in Charters and say it on TV, regularly.
We are also experiencing one of the most well funded PR campaigns in the history of the world, financed by oil billions. This has been carefully researched and documented by Mitchell Bard in his book, The Arab Lobby.The latter lobby spends plenty of money complaining about the Jewish Lobby, to such an extent that much of the Western world had been led, falsely, to believe that there is no powerful Arab Lobby at all, while, in fact, it is the most powerful of them all.
This PR campaign has succeeded on many fronts, but the one most challenging to the Western mind is the one that talks about land ownership. What would once have been crystal clear to the Western mind is now fuzzy, because this Arab money has been infiltrating Western universities, buying Professorial chairs, and spreading entirely new ideas about Islam and the West.
This was presaged in 1988 in the Hamas Charter, when the strategic importance of education was announced.
Now the Western mind is completely befuddled about land ownership. The Western mind has been corrupted by Islamist ideology and is totally unaware of this. Islamist ideology holds that once land has been conquered by Islamic armies, it is theirs forever, even if it is subsequently lost in combat.
Thus, even though the West won land in WWI, the notion that this was no longer Islamic land never penetrated the Islamist mind. Similarly, if "Palestinians" begin wars with Israel, and then lose land, they immediately claim that it is "their" land--although they lost it in battles they, themselves, began.
They do this so consistently, with the help of their Lobby working abroad in Western societies, that the notion is pounded and pounded into the Western mind through repetition, until it is unquestioned. This is the state of affairs today. There is very little, if any, Western realization of what is occurring not just in Israel, or to Israel and the Middle East, but throughout Western Europe as well.
Things are defintely heading the right direction. "Operation Cast Lead" in 2008 resulted in between 1,166 and 1,417 Palestinian and 13 Israeli deaths (4 from friendly fire) accroding to Wiki. By my calcuclation that's around 100 Palestinian lives for every Isareli life lost. This time aorund 140 Palestinians and 5 Isarelis were kiled, which means around 30 Palestinian lives for every Isareli life lost. Things are most definitely looking up.
So why the hell Israel is the one who need protection?
Quote: "Things are most definitely looking up."
Yes for Hamas is indeed looking up - on way to to Alla where they yearn to go
The ration is 50 : 1
So … you owe us a few … it's all right … we'll catch up in the 'next one' … INSHALLAH
I'm guessing you're not good at detecting sarcasm ;)
Wow. The US stepped in early. Must be pay back for supporting The Romimator. They usually allow 1000 Arabs to one Israeli death.
The moral high ground that Turkish or many leaders from the Muslim world take while espousing Palestinian cause is a joke.Even today Turkey is killing more innocent Muslims than Israel(ask the kurds).What Turkey has done to Armenian people will never be forgotten.And it has shamelessly refused to accept the Genocide carried out by it and has never asked for forgiveness.
I do not know whether Economist has prepared statistical charts on Kurds killed by Turks and vice versa.But I doubt they would have done it, it will not look 'glamourous' enough as Palestinians killing Israelis and vice versa. At the time of writing this post innocent muslim shiite mourners are being butchered in Pakistan by suicide bombers.
One of the major problem that has to be looked closely by moderate muslims around the world is why they do not come out on streets in force when muslims kill innocent muslims/non muslims.The answer is very simple.It is very easy to blame others but when it comes to look internally, it is very difficult.While this lacunae is universal, it is more pronounced in case of Muslims.
Muslims have done grave injustice to the Palestinian cause by projecting the issue as Muslims versus Jews.It has only increased the Palestinians suffering and helped in their radicalisation.
Sidr1 has completely ignored the position that Turkey has taken on Iranian nuclear ambitions.Turkey sided against nearly the entire UN security council against the US led embargo. Turkey is dismantling the Ataturk secular revolution, and doing so by jailing the generals who were tasked throughout the 20th century, with protecting Ataturk's western leaning revolution. Turkey is now squarely in the fold of Islam, not the West. It was from Turkey that the murderous IHH on the flotilla attacked the Israeli blockade, designed to prevent advanced weaponry, such as has recently been used against Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, from easily reaching Gazan ports. Turkey is no ally of the West. Today they lobby Obama for Patriot missile technology--undoubtedly to pass on to Iran to use against the Israelis who are thought to be planning an attack against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Look to Obama, who stood down as Egypt's revolution to topple a western leaning dictator occurred, to stand down again as Morsi becomes the Islamist leaning dictator. Look to Obama to provide Turkey with Patriot missiles, even though Turkey is no longer in the Western camp. Look to Obama to do Israel in through international actions and inactions like these that world press in its usual fashion, overlooks.
In short, The Turks need to withdraw from their hypocrisies. And shut the hell up.!
Look to the Turkish Invasion and seize of Northern Cyprus.
150,000 Greek Cypriots displaced from their home. The establishment of a separate Turkish Cypriot political entity. All done with a massive invasion. They established The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which only Turkey recognizes. And they unilaterally declared themselves a state in 1983 within an indigenous people, built a border that restricts access for Greek Cypriots and maintains a military presence to legitimize it...
So Turkey, you steal peoples lands, invade their country, deny them any access,establish a military around them, and most recently starting illegally to intervene with The Republic of Cyprus over drilling for natural gas resources. Turkey went so far as to " even threaten[ed] military action to stop the drilling." http://www.capradio.org/news/npr/story?storyid=165754318
While the Headlines of these two situations sounds similar, they are not. Israel v Palestine, and Greece/ Cyprus v Turkey. History and Facts are that Israel followed political channels to establish herself in 1948, then declared sovereignty. "[The newly created Arab countries (following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in WWI) came to be superintend by European colonial empires.
These Arab states only gained their independence during or after World War II, the Republic of Lebanon in 1943, the Syrian Arab Republic and the Kingdom of Jordan in 1946, Libya in 1951, the Republic of Egypt in 1952, the Kingdom of Morocco and Tunisia in 1956, the Republic of Iraq in 1958, Algeria in 1962 and the United Arab Emirates in 1971.
The Arab states, in changing alliances, were involved in a number of wars with Israel between 1948 and 1973, including the 1948 Arab–Israeli War, the 1956 Suez Crisis, the Six-Day War of 1967, and the Yom Kippur War of 1973.]"
Therefore in the defense of Israel's declaration of sovereignty they defeated these newly organized pan-arab state cities on the battlefield . And yet the issue of how to handle the indigenous population, who now live within the defended, disputed lands.? Israel though the years watched them achieve legitimacy in the Palestinian Authority(PA), after years of being PLO terrorists.
Israel agreed to talks and peace negotiations with PLO Leader Yasser Arafat,( a man who wore a military uniform. obviously the only one of its kind), But only on the condition of recognition of Israel and an agreement of stopping the violence. After Arafat's death there was a shift toward the PA who took a more diplomatic approach. Now PA Leader Mahmood Abbas has the opportunity to declare statehood for Palestinians. Hamas however in Gaza, has not been willing to offer Israel neither recognition, or any hope for a peace. Israel has withdrawn from Gaza but maintains security measures ("blockades" )that hope to restrict arms smuggling, and militant extremists from planning or attacking Israel.
So it seems that the anti-Israel camp would like to characterize Israel's actions to be like that of Turkey's tactics in Northern Cyprus. Stealing lands is not what Israel did. History and facts show they most certainly did not. Israel's strategy is one of self preservation and self defense. just like that of the Greek Cypriots Israelis are comfortable leaving the war alone, and letting the (Northern Turkish Cyprus/Gazians and Palestinian ) people develop a land for themselves. But for Israel to do so they would need a basic fundamental guarantee, to be left in Peace. No attacks, simple. Recognize Israel's right to exist peacefully.
For Turkey it is understandable in the light of their tactics in Northern Cyprus why they would support and defend Hamas.
There will never be peace in that region.
In just what region of the world where Islamists live is there peace?
Almost everywhere on the globe where there is violence, there are Islamists.
Peace talks with now vindicated and STRENGTHENED Death to Israel movements like Hamas and its Muslim Brotherhood parent is a diplomatic fiction that only the Economist can really believe! Hamas will show its strength by keeping up the rocket fire as it did when ignored IDENTICAL pledges after the 2009 Cease fire. The only difference is that Hamas will ( through surrogates Islamic Jihad) ramp up daily rocketing quicker with looser controls. Israel's leaders have told residents within thirty miles of Gaza to just take IT!! Maybe Ben Gurion International Airport and Tel Aviv are the real Red Lines for the foreseeable future!
What an idiotic title. Of course the cease-fire will not lead to peace. The only thing that will lead to PEACE is JUSTICE, meaning an end to the apartheid state currently in place in Israel, an independent Palestinian state, the right of refugees to return to their homes (hey, the West went to war in Bosnia because ethnic cleansing was unacceptable. If it's unacceptable there, why should it be acceptable in Israel?) Otherwise, Palestinians will continue to fight with the means at their disposal, and now that their Arab brothers are led by democratically elected governments accountable to the people (rather than the dictators of old who did America's bidding) the Palestinians have more support.
My advice to them: continue the resistance. Few countries in the world got their independence by asking nicely. So continue fighting until you get your rights back. And it seems that Hamas is doing just that, unlike that weak and ineffective Abbas regime.
You mean an end to Israel ( a/k/a) the Apartheid State to justify its destruction ( the South African White community WAS NEVER attacked generally or constantly threatened with elimination)!! Yes an Auschwitz Peace would mean that Arabs and other Muslim could have their JEW Free Blood Bath over the spoils of "liberated" Palestine and would be jolly, jolly bloody about who owns the bones!! What rights is Hamas talking about getting back by being perfectly honest about its elimination of Jews as PART OF ITS WRITTEN PROGRAM! You are either totally ignorant of Hamas or more certainly AGREE with its gruesome aims and just want to spout nonsense to cover your bigotry!!
Well, the Israelis are openly fretting that they didn't kill enough Palestinians in this latest go-around to fully satisfy their blood-lust, so your animated analysis of Israel as the victim does not hold water.
You obviously don't remember the wars South Africa waged with most of its neighbors. They also claimed to be battling an "existential" struggle, and also claimed to be the West's "first line of defense", this time against communism, the bogeyman of the time. Afrikaaners would of course paint it as if the very day apartheid was taken down, revenge-seeking black "savages" would have their very own WHITE blood bath over the spoils of liberated South Africa.
All in all, it was just another colonial conflict, where the colonial population defended their privileges against the natives who wanted to take them away from them and shake off their domination, much like Arabs have been trying to do in Palestine since the creation of Israel.
Maybe more Jews eliminated NEXT TIME! Cheer up!!
You sound really MAD that just five Jews got killed!!
You can compare Jews to White South African Hitler admirers! I can compare you to the Jew Demeanors and far worse that litter the world!!
Very good. Practical and realistic advice.
Those of us who have decided not to support one side over another read your post and easily see your blind partisanship and/or self-delusion. If you shoot rockets at someone and they respond in-kind, that is self-defense.
Yes, there are other issues in the "conflict" but the simple fact is that Hamas wanted Israel to respond so it could keep its control of the poor civilian population.
When I was a child in the early 1960's there was quite a bit of sympathy for the palestinian "cause" but when they started murdering Americans and hijacking planes all that sympathy evaporated. Why? It is another plot? No. It is a reaction against murderers. Now most Americans have little or no sympathy for the murderers/Hamas/palestinians/nutcases. They are now seen as mostly the same people. Perhaps it is untrue, but that is what they earned by their actions.
And oh, by the way, who would waste their time plotting to kill palestinians anyway as your post says? I for one could care less.
The Israelis are openly fretting that by not going into Gaza militarily, they left the rockets and rocket launchers hidden int the basements of apartment buildings along the Gaza n border, ready to be used again against Israeli civilians.
I guess the one million Jews expelled from Arab countries doesn't bother you. It's fine as long they are Jews, right? Perhaps a more just solution would be that those countries that disposed their Jewish population and confiscated their land and property would take in the homeless Palestinians? But I guess this wouldn't occur to someone spreading Nazi propaganda. Apartheid in Israel? There is not a single Arab country in the world where Arab citizens have human rights like in Israel. From gays to women's rights for Arabs Israel is 1000 years ahead of its neighbors.
Why does a moron like you even bother to comment?
Abuse doesn't help in any debate. And I perfectly agree with you that nobody should be expelled from their homeland. So you agree with me, right, that Palestinians should be allowed to go back to their ancestral lands, and Jews who were expelled from Arab countries should be allowed to go back there. Deal? Peace treaty?
Typical propaganda. Nothing will be destroyed, the monuments in the Holy Land will still stay there, and so will the olive groves, and the shining sun. It's just that the majority (Muslim and Christian Arabs) will be in charge. Jews are invited to stay on ...as a minority. Why are they so scared? Could it be because they know of the horrible treatment they have meted out to the Palestinians and are afraid of getting the same back? Well, maybe they shouldn't have done what they did. But I am sure that wise men will prevail.
In the 21st century, dictatorships are behind us,and democracy means rule of the majority. Sorry, but Arabs ARE the majority in Israel/Palestine, you may not like it, but facts are facts, and they do have that stubborn habit of sticking around, whether you like them or not
Sorry to upset your day but Hamas,Hezbollah, the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran and all Middle East Islamic groups with any influence whatsoever have the total destruction of the Jewish community in Palestine ( ALL OF SO-CALLED Israel) as a bottom line!! In fact Hezbollah and many theologians in Iran have openly called for the DEATH OF ALL JEWS WORLDWIDE to insure the CRIME OF ZIONISM never comes again!!! Why do you think the Jewish community in ARGENTINA was deliberately slaughtered twice in 1992 and 1994 by Iran and Hezbollah! Is Argentina a stolen land from the Muslims???
As long as the peace process is handled by the regional players, it will work out. Keep the outsiders (US. Europe, Russia..) out of it.
Best wishes
Kishore Nair from Mumbai www.soffina.com
Hmm … don't appreciate advice from Hindus? Raja-poo? Your racism is showing through your veil … LOL
Why do you think the deal got done between Hamas and Israel? Do you think it was MORSI that got it done? Why was the deal NOT DONE until Clinton showed up? Take a guess!
Israel did not want a guarantee from Egypt but it could ask that the USA sit in on the deal and hear the terms and then guarantee that the USA makes Morsi GUARANTEE exactly what ALL PARTIES … ISRAEL & HAMAS AND EGYPT UNDERSTOOD … otherwise there would NOT have been a deal!
The USA's presence was the deal maker … sure Morsi has boosted his stock (to the detriment of Turkey and Qatar) but as we've seen today … he has overplayed his own hand INSIDE Egypt … he's someone that ISRAEL can't trust … that's why Clinton presence made the deal!
The shifting of Hamas from Iran to Turkey,from Syria to Quatar and Aegypt is useless.Israel pretends not to believe and accept this move,and the reason is simple:Nethanyahu,has no intention of stopping the settlements into Palestine,nor of beginning a road map to peace with all the palestinians.There is no minimum interest of the israeli government to stop to try to humiliate the palestinians:the recent revolutions in the arab states are changing the political map in Middle East,but they show no interest in this change:Obama should rediscute the financements to Israel and the collaboration on military programs.This is the only language to be spoken with he zionists.
Big news flash, Netanyahu stopped new settlement activity in response to Washington pressure two years ago: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/israeli-settlers-evacuat.... The response, as with the WITHDRAWAL from GAZA itself in 2005, was GREATLY INCREASED ROCKETING OF ISRAELI TOWNS in Israel proper!! Find another excuse for supporting Death to Israel!!
Israel does not want more territory … no let me rephrase that … it would accept more territory BUT NOT WITH ARAB/MUSLIMS … Israel can only exist IF … IT IS OVERWHELMINGLY JEWISH AND DEMOCRATIC …
So don't fret … the size of Israel is pretty much what you see on the current map … the Filistans have to accept a state on what's left to them … if they don't … then expect there to be many more bursts of violence … with patches of quiet … unless the Israelis can figure out a drone network and robotic soldiers to patrol the 'occupied territories' on their behalf … dispatching 'justice' as they've been programmed to do … relax … it's a few years off … and the ratio of 50 : 1 would still apply … LOL
As long as Israel exists as an independent state in the Middle East - there will never be peace.
Economist, can you write the article referring to the statement above? Roots are here.
Does that mean that Death and Destruction to Israel will bring a Garden of Peace and Good will towards ALL to the Arab or Muslim worlds?? You have to have a really twisted view of the history of both Europe and the Middle East to think such a successful act of Genocide or ethnic cleansing will bring anything but bolder horrors and totalitarian wars among Arabs and Iranians as we have seen in the very recent past!!
YOu, Napoleon1798, did not explain why you believe there would never be peace. I wonder if you realize that as long as the West is keeping Islam from full control of Jerusalem, there will never be peace because Islam will have none of peace when it is called to holy war to reclaim every inch of soil it won in conquest but later lost. Islam has been losing to the West for over 300 years, and it is now gearing up to reverse the course of history once again, and not just in the tiny region where Gazans are fighting against the Infidel, either. Pay attention.
The Israeli Declaration of Independence was made on the 14th of May 1948. The next day (15th of May 1948) the Arab-Israeli War started. Ever since then, there has been numerous ceasefires and peace talks - yet violence continues.
For the modern context - a ceasefire has been negotiated. Yet it is just a matter of time before more violence erupts.
The Israeli Declaration of Independence was made on the 14th of May 1948. The next day (15th of May 1948) the Arab-Israeli War started. Ever since then, there has been numerous ceasefires and peace talks - yet violence continues.
In no way am I suggesting ethnic cleansing. I am merely stating the possibility of real peace for the state of Israel in the Middle East.
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The point of that story is that my parents were here last week, so they had the joy of caring for G through his malaise. My mom fielded the fever day and let him wipe avocado-colored snot epaulets all over her shirts. My dad the doctor (of mathematics) wiped his avocado-colored poops and spoke, as only my dad would, in anatomical terms while diaper creaming the irritated lad: "Too much cream! I don't want to plug his anus!"
But don't you for a minute feel sorry for them. They're eager participatory grandparents, and they have a long history with avocado:
August 23, 1970
How 40 years ago looked.
You've come so far, but you can't escape the avocado.
Happy anniversary.

subset: commoncrawl


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Need help cloning? Visit Bitbucket 101.
Atlassian SourceTree is a free Git and Mercurial client for Windows.
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README_src.txt for version 7.2 of Vim: Vi IMproved. The source archive contains the files needed to compile Vim on Unix systems. It is packed for Unix systems (NL line separator). It is also used for other systems in combination with the extra archive (vim-7.2-extra.tar.gz, in the "extra" directory of ftp.vim.org). For more information, see the README.txt file that comes with the runtime archive (vim-7.2-rt.tar.gz). To be able to run Vim you MUST get the runtime archive too!


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World Oil Transit Chokepoints
Last Updated: November 10, 2014 (Notes)
full report
World chokepoints for maritime transit of oil are a critical part of global energy security. About 63% of the world's oil production moves on maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca are the world's most important strategic chokepoints by volume of oil transit.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) defines world oil chokepoints as narrow channels along widely-used global sea routes, some so narrow that restrictions are placed on the size of the vessel that can navigate through them. Chokepoints are a critical part of global energy security because of the high volume of petroleum and other liquids transported through their narrow straits.
In 2013, total world petroleum and other liquids production was about 90.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d).1 EIA estimates that about 63% of this amount (56.5 million bbl/d) traveled via seaborne trade.2 Oil tankers accounted for 30% of the world's shipping by deadweight tonnage in 2013, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).3
International energy markets depend on reliable transport routes. Blocking a chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to substantial increases in total energy costs and world energy prices. Chokepoints also leave oil tankers vulnerable to theft from pirates, terrorist attacks, shipping accidents that can lead to disastrous oil spills, and political unrest in the form of wars or hostilities.
The seven chokepoints highlighted in this report are part of major trade routes for global seaborne oil transportation. Disruptions to these routes could affect oil prices and add thousands of miles of transit in alternative routes. By volume of oil transit, the Strait of Hormuz, leading out of the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, are the world's most important strategic chokepoints. This report also discusses the role of the Cape of Good Hope, which is not a chokepoint but is a major trade route and potential alternate route to certain chokepoints.
Figure 1. Daily transit volumes through world maritime oil chokepoints
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence, Panama Canal Authority, Eastern Bloc Research, Suez Canal Authority, and UNCTAD, using EIA conversion factors.
Location | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Strait of Hormuz | 15.7 | 15.9 | 17.0 | 16.9 | 17.0 |
Strait of Malacca | 13.5 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.1 | 15.2 |
Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
Bab el-Mandab | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.8 |
Danish Straits | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
Turkish Straits | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
Panama Canal | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
World maritime oil trade | 53.9 | 55.5 | 55.6 | 56.7 | 56.5 |
World total oil supply | 84.9 | 87.5 | 87.8 | 89.7 | 90.1 |
Notes: All estimates are in million barrels per day. Data for Panama Canal is by fiscal years. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence, Panama Canal Authority, Eastern Bloc Research, Suez Canal Authority, and UNCTAD, using EIA conversion factors. |
Oil tanker sizes
Ships carrying crude oil and petroleum products are limited by size restrictions imposed by maritime oil chokepoints. The global crude oil and refined product tanker fleet uses a classification system to standardize contract terms, to establish shipping costs, and to determine the ability of ships to travel into ports or through certain straits and channels. This system, known as the Average Freight Rate Assessment (AFRA) system, was established by Royal Dutch Shell six decades ago, and is overseen by the London Tanker Brokers' Panel (LTBP), an independent group of shipping brokers.
AFRA uses a scale that classifies tanker vessels according to deadweight tons, a measure of a ship's capacity to carry cargo. The approximate capacity of a ship in barrels is determined using an estimated 90% of a ship's deadweight tonnage, and multiplying that by a barrel per metric ton conversion factor specific to each type of petroleum product and crude oil, as liquid fuel densities vary by type and grade.
The smaller vessels on the AFRA scale - the General Purpose (GP) and Medium Range (MR) tankers - are commonly used to transport cargos of refined petroleum products over relatively shorter distances, such as from Europe to the U.S. East Coast. Their smaller size allows them to access most ports around the globe. A GP tanker can carry between 70,000 barrels and 190,000 barrels of motor gasoline (3.2-8 million gallons), and an MR tanker can carry between 190,000 barrels and 345,000 barrels (8-14.5 million gallons).
Long Range (LR) class ships are the most common ships in the global tanker fleet, as they are used to carry both refined products and crude oil. These ships can access most large ports that ship crude oil and petroleum products. An LR1 tanker can carry between 345,000 barrels and 615,000 barrels of gasoline (14.5-25.8 million gallons) or between 310,000 barrels and 550,000 barrels of light sweet crude oil.
A classification used to describe a large portion of the global tanker fleet is AFRAMAX. AFRAMAX vessels refer to ships between 80,000 deadweight tons and 120,000 deadweight tons. This ship size is popular with oil companies for logistical purposes, so, many ships have been built within these specifications. Because the AFRAMAX range exists somewhere between the LR1 and LR2 AFRA scales, the LTBP does not publish a freight assessment specifically for AFRAMAX vessels.
Over the history of AFRA, vessels grew in size, and newer classifications were added. The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and Ultra-Large Crude Carrier (ULCC) were added as the global oil trade expanded and 95 larger vessels provided better economics for crude shipments. VLCCs are responsible for most crude oil shipments around the globe, including in the North Sea, home of the crude oil price benchmark Brent. A VLCC can carry between 1.9 million and 2.2 million barrels of a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) type crude oil.
Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important chokepoint with an oil flow of 17 million barrels per day in 2013, about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil.
Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint because of its daily oil flow of 17 million barrels per day in 2013. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz in 2013 were about 30% of all seaborne-traded oil.
EIA estimates that more than 85% of the crude oil that moved through this chokepoint went to Asian markets, based on data from Lloyd's List Intelligence tanker tracking service.6 Japan, India, South Korea, and China are the largest destinations for oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatar exported about 3.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz in 2013, according to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.7 This volume accounts for more than 30% of global LNG trade. Kuwait imports LNG volumes that travel northward through the Strait of Hormuz.
At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide, but the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles wide, separated by a two-mile buffer zone. The Strait of Hormuz is deep and wide enough to handle the world's largest crude oil tankers, with about two-thirds of oil shipments carried by tankers in excess of 150,000 deadweight tons.
Pipelines available as bypass options
Most potential options to bypass Hormuz are currently not operational. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) presently have pipelines able to ship crude oil outside of the Persian Gulf and have additional pipeline capacity to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. At the end of 2013, the total available unused pipeline capacity from the two countries combined was approximately 4.3 million bbl/d (see Table 2).
Saudi Arabia has the 746-mile Petroline, also known as the East-West Pipeline, which runs across Saudi Arabia from its Abqaiq complex to the Red Sea. The Petroline system consists of two pipelines with a total nameplate (installed) capacity of about 4.8 million bbl/d. The 56-inch pipeline has a nameplate capacity of 3 million bbl/d, and its current throughput is about 2 million bbl/d. The 48-inch pipeline had been operating in recent years as a natural gas pipeline, but Saudi Arabia converted it back to an oil pipeline. The switch increased Saudi Arabia's spare oil pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait of Hormuz from 1 million bbl/d to 2.8 million bbl/d, but this is only achievable if the system operates at its full nameplate capacity.
Saudi Arabia also operates the Abqaiq-Yanbu natural gas liquids pipeline, which has a capacity of 290,000 bbl/d. However, this pipeline is currently running at capacity and cannot move any additional oil.
The UAE operates the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (1.5 million bbl/d) that runs from Habshan, a collection point for Abu Dhabi's onshore oil fields, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, allowing crude oil shipments to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline can transport more than half of UAE's total net oil exports. The government plans to increase this capacity in the near future to 1.8 million bbl/d.
Other pipelines are currently unavailable as bypass options
Saudi Arabia also has two additional pipelines that run parallel to the Petroline system and bypass the Strait of Hormuz, but neither of the pipelines currently has the ability to transport additional volumes of oil if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
The 1.65 million bbl/d, 48-inch Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA), which runs parallel to the Petroline from pump station #3 (there are 11 pumping stations along the Petroline) to the port of Mu'ajjiz, just south of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, was built in 1989 to carry 1.65 million bbl/d of crude oil from Iraq to the Red Sea. The pipeline closed indefinitely following the August 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. In June 2001, Saudi Arabia seized ownership of IPSA and converted it to transport natural gas to power plants. Saudi Arabia has not announced plans to convert the pipeline back to transport crude oil.
Other pipelines, such as the Trans-Arabian Pipeline (TAPLINE) running from Qaisumah in Saudi Arabia to Sidon in Lebanon, or a strategic oil pipeline between Iraq and Turkey, have been out of service for years because of war damage, disuse, or political disagreements. These pipelines would require extensive renovation before they can transport oil. Relatively small quantities, several hundred thousand barrels per day at most, could also be transported by truck if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Pipeline name | Country | Status | Capacity | Throughput | Unused capacity |
Petroline (East-West Pipeline) | Saudi Arabia | Operating | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline | United Arab Emirates | Operating | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
Abqaiq-Yanbu Natural Gas Liquids Pipeline | Saudi Arabia | Operating | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA) | Saudi Arabia | Converted to natural gas | 1.7 | - | - |
Total | 8.2 | 2.9 | 3.7 | ||
Notes: All estimates expressed in million barrels per day (bbl/d). Unused Capacity is defined as pipeline capacity that is not currently utilized but can be readily available. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Lloyd's List Intelligence.8 |
Strait of Malacca
The Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, is the shortest sea route between the Middle East and growing Asian markets.
The Strait of Malacca, located between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, links the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean. The Strait of Malacca is the shortest sea route between Persian Gulf suppliers and the Asian markets—notably China, Japan, South Korea, and the Pacific Rim.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Malacca supply China and Indonesia, two of the world's fastest-growing economies. It is the key chokepoint in Asia, with an estimated 15.2 million bbl/d flow in 2013, compared with 13.5 million bbl/d in 2009. Crude oil generally makes up about 90% of total oil flows per year, and petroleum products make up about 10% (see Table 3).
At its narrowest point in the Phillips Channel of the Singapore Strait, the Strait of Malacca is only about 1.7 miles wide, creating a natural bottleneck with potential for collisions, grounding, or oil spills.9 According to the International Maritime Bureau's Piracy Reporting Centre, piracy, including attempted theft and hijackings, is a threat to tankers in the Strait of Malacca, although the number of attacks has dropped since 2005 after nearby countries increased patrols in the area.10
If the Strait of Malacca were blocked, nearly half of the world's fleet would be required to reroute around the Indonesian archipelago, such as through the Lombok Strait between the Indonesian islands of Bali and Lombok, or the Sunda Strait between Java and Sumatra.11 Rerouting would tie up global shipping capacity, adding to shipping costs and potentially having a significant impact on energy prices.
There have been several proposals to build bypass options and reduce tanker traffic through the Strait of Malacca. In particular, China and Burma (Myanmar) commissioned the Myanmar-China natural gas pipeline in 2013 that stretches from Myanmar's ports in the Bay of Bengal to the Yunnan province of China. The pipeline has a capacity of 424 billion cubic feet per year. The countries are constructing a parallel oil pipeline to serve as an alternative transport route for crude oil imports from the Middle East to potentially bypass the Strait of Malacca.12 The oil pipeline was set to open in late 2014 and to have a capacity of about 440,000 bbl/d, according to IHS Energy.13 However, political opposition in both countries to the pipeline may delay its opening until 2016.
The Strait of Malacca is also an important transit route for liquefied natural gas from Persian Gulf and African suppliers, particularly Qatar, to East Asian countries with growing LNG demand. The biggest importers of LNG in the region are Japan and South Korea.
million barrels per day | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Total oil flows through Strait of Malacca | 13.5 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.1 | 15.2 |
crude oil | 11.9 | 12.8 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 13.4 |
refined products | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
LNG (Tcf per year) | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.2 |
Notes: Tcf = Trillion cubic feet. 2013 LNG is a preliminary estimate. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence, Cedigaz, BP.14 |
Figure 3. Map of the Strait of Malacca
Source: CIA Factbook (See closer view of Strait of Malacca)
Suez Canal/SUMED Pipeline
The Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline are strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe and North America. These two routes combined accounted for about 8% of the world's seaborne oil trade in 2013.
Suez Canal
The Suez Canal is located in Egypt and connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez with the Mediterranean Sea. In 2013, total petroleum and other liquids (crude oil and refined products) and LNG accounted for 20% and 3% of total Suez cargoes, measured by cargo tonnage, respectively. The Suez Canal is unable to handle Ultra Large Crude Carriers (ULCC) and fully laden Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) class crude oil tankers. The Suezmax was the largest ship capable of navigating through the canal until 2010 when the Suez Canal Authority extended the canal depth to 66 feet to allow more than 60% of all tankers to use the Suez Canal, according to the Suez Canal Authority.15
In 2013, nearly 3.2 million bbl/d of total oil (crude oil and refined products) transited the Suez Canal in both directions, according to the Suez Canal Authority. This is the largest amount ever shipped through the Suez Canal. The majority of the oil was sent northbound (1.9 million bbl/d) toward European and North American markets, and the remainder was sent southbound (1.3 million bbl/d), mainly toward Asian markets.
Oil exports from Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Oman, Qatar, and Bahrain) accounted for 79% of Suez Canal northbound oil flows. The largest importers of northbound oil flows through the Suez Canal in 2013 were European countries (68%) and the United States (16%). Oil exports from European countries made up the majority (66%) of Suez southbound oil flows, followed by North Africa (Algeria and Libya combined made up 16%). The largest importers of Suez southbound oil flows through the Suez Canal were Asian countries (74%).
Total traffic through the Suez Canal fell in 2009, and total oil flows dropped to 1.8 million bbl/d, their lowest level in recent years. The decrease in oil flows during that time reflected the collapse in world oil market demand that began in the fourth quarter of 2008, followed by OPEC production cuts (primarily from the Persian Gulf), which caused a sharp fall in regional oil trade starting in early 2009. Egypt's 2011 revolution did not have any noticeable effect on oil transit flows through the Suez Canal. Over the past few years, oil flows through the Suez Canal have increased, recovering from previous lower levels during the global economic downturn.
SUMED Pipeline
The 200-mile long SUMED Pipeline, or Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, transports crude oil through Egypt from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea. The crude oil flows through two parallel pipelines that are 42 inches in diameter, with a total pipeline capacity of 2.34 million bbl/d. Oil flows north starting at the Ain Sukhna terminal along the Red Sea coast to its end point at the Sidi Kerir terminal on the Mediterranean Sea. SUMED is owned by the Arab Petroleum Pipeline Co., a joint venture between the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (50%), Saudi Aramco (15%), Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company (15%), multiple Kuwaiti companies (15%), and Qatar Petroleum (5%).16
The SUMED Pipeline is the only alternative route to transport crude oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea if ships were unable to navigate through the Suez Canal. Closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would necessitate diverting oil tankers around the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 2,700 miles to transit from Saudi Arabia to the United States, increasing both costs and shipping time, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.17 According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-10 days to the United States.18
Fully laden VLCCs going toward the Suez Canal also use the SUMED Pipeline for lightering. Lightering occurs when a vessel needs to reduce its weight and draft by offloading cargo to enter a restrictive waterway, such as a canal. The Suez Canal is not deep enough for a fully-laden VLCC and, therefore, a portion of the crude is offloaded at the SUMED Pipeline at the Ain Sukhna terminal. The now partially-laden VLCC goes through the Suez Canal and picks up the offloaded crude at the other end of the pipeline at the Sidi Kerir terminal.
In 2013, 1.4 million bbl/d of crude oil was transported through the SUMED Pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea, which was then loaded onto a tanker for seaborne trade. SUMED crude flows decreased over the past few years, but the decrease has been offset by more oil transiting northbound via the Suez Canal. Total oil flows via SUMED and the Suez Canal were 4.6 million bbl/d in 2013, 0.1 million bbl/d higher compared with the previous year. Total oil flows via the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline accounted for about 8% of total seaborne-traded oil in 2013.
million barrels per day | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Total oil flows via the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline | 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 |
Suez Canal total flows | |||||
crude oil | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
refined products | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
total oil | 1.8 | 2 | 2.2 | 3 | 3.2 |
LNG (Tcf per year) | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
Suez northbound flows | |||||
crude oil | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
refined products | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
total oil | 1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
LNG (Tcf per year) | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1 |
Suez southbound flows | |||||
crude oil | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
refined products | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1 |
total oil | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
LNG (Tcf per year) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
SUMED pipeline crude oil flows | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Notes: Totals may not exactly match corresponding values as a result of independent rounding. Tcf = Trillion cubic feet. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence, Suez Canal Authority (with EIA conversions).19 |
Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
LNG flows through the Suez Canal in both directions were 1.2 Tcf in 2013, accounting for 10% of total LNG transported worldwide.
LNG flows through the Suez Canal in both directions were 1.2 Tcf in 2013, accounting for around 10% of total LNG traded worldwide. Southbound LNG transit mostly originates in Egypt and Algeria and is largely destined for Asian markets, while northbound transit is mostly from Qatar mainly destined for European markets. The rapid growth in LNG flows through the Suez Canal after 2008 represents the use of multiple LNG trains in Qatar in 2009-10.
LNG flows through the Suez Canal in both directions have declined from their peak of almost 2.1 Tcf in 2011. The decrease mostly reflects the fall in northbound LNG flows and is consistent with LNG import data for the United States and Europe, which show that total LNG imports into both areas decreased, particularly from Qatar. U.S. LNG imports from Qatar fell by 63% from 2011-2012 and again by 78% in 2013. The changes reflect growing domestic natural gas production in the United States, a decrease in LNG demand in some European countries, and strong competition for LNG in the global market. As a result, total Suez LNG flows as a share of total LNG traded worldwide fell to 10% in 2013, compared with 18% in 2011.
Bab el-Mandeb
Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could keep tankers in the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, and it is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The strait is located between Yemen, Djibouti, and Eritrea, and connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea. Most exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline also pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
An estimated 3.8 million bbl/d of crude oil and refined petroleum products flowed through this waterway in 2013 toward Europe, the United States, and Asia, an increase from 2.9 million bbl/d in 2009. Oil shipped through the strait decreased by almost one-third in 2009 because of the global economic downturn and the decline in northbound oil shipments to Europe. Northbound oil shipments increased through Bab el-Mandeb Strait in 2013, and more than half of the traffic, about 2.1 million bbl/d, moved northbound to the Suez Canal and SUMED Pipeline.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, limiting tanker traffic to two 2-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound shipments. Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost. In addition, European and North African southbound oil flows could no longer take the most direct route to Asian markets via the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.
Figure 5. Map of Bab el-Mandeb
Source: CIA Factbook (See closer view of Bab el-Mandeb)
Turkish Straits
Increased oil exports from the Caspian Sea region make the Turkish Straits one of the busiest chokepoints in the world. Oil through these straits supplies Western and Southern Europe.
The Turkish Straits, which includes the Bosporus and Dardanelles waterways, divide Asia from Europe. The Bosporus is 17-mile waterway that connects the Black Sea with the Sea of Marmara. The Dardanelles is a 40-mile waterway that links the Sea of Marmara with the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.20 Both are located in Turkey and supply Western and Southern Europe with oil from Russia and the Caspian Sea Region.
An estimated 2.9 million bbl/d flowed through the Turkish Straits in 2013. About 70% of this volume was crude oil and the remainder was petroleum products. These Black Sea ports are among the primary oil export routes for Russia and other Eurasian countries, including Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Oil shipments through the Turkish Straits decreased from more than 3.4 million bbl/d at its peak in 2004 to 2.6 million bbl/d in 2006 as Russia shifted crude oil exports toward the Baltic ports. Traffic through the Turkish Straits increased from 2010-2011 as crude production and exports from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan increased.
Only half a mile wide at the narrowest point, the Turkish Straits are among the world's most difficult waterways to navigate because of their sinuous geography. About 48,000 vessels transit the straits each year, making this area one of the world's busiest maritime chokepoints.21
Commercial shipping has the right of free passage through the Turkish Straits in peacetime, although Turkey claims the right to impose regulations for safety and environmental purposes. Bottlenecks and heavy traffic also create problems for oil tankers in the Turkish Straits. Turkey has raised concerns over the navigational safety and environmental threats to the Turkish Straits, and the country has suggested that an alternate route could be developed between the Black Sea and the Sea of Marmara.22
Figure 6. Map of Turkish Straits
Source: U.S. Government (See closer view of Turkish Straits)
Panama Canal
The United States is the primary country of origin and destination for all commodities going through the Panama Canal; however, it is not a significant route for U.S. petroleum trade.
The Panama Canal is an important route connecting the Pacific Ocean with the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. The Canal is 50 miles long and only 110 feet wide at its narrowest point â the Culebra Cut â at the Continental Divide.23 More than 13,000 vessels transited the Canal in fiscal year 2014, representing more than 200 million tons of cargo.24 Goods either originating from or destined for the United States accounted for 43% of the total shipments passing through the Panama Canal during that period.25
Alternatives to the Panama Canal include the Straits of Magellan, Cape Horn, and Drake Passage at the southern tip of South America, but these routes would significantly increase transit times and costs, adding about 8,000 miles of travel.
Although petroleum and petroleum products represented 18% of the principal commodities that crossed through the Panama Canal,26 it is not a significant route for global petroleum and petroleum product transit. In 2013, 1.4% of total global maritime petroleum and petroleum product flows went through the Panama Canal. According to the Panama Canal Authority, 877,000 bbl/d of petroleum and petroleum products were transported through the canal in fiscal year 2014, of which 748,000 bbl/d were refined products, the remainder being crude oil.27 About 78% of total petroleum, 688,000 bbl/d, went southbound from the Atlantic to the Pacific.28
The relevance of the Panama Canal to the global oil trade has diminished, as many modern tankers are too large to travel through the canal. Some oil tankers, such as the ULCC (Ultra Large Crude Carrier) class tankers, can be nearly five times larger than the maximum capacity of the canal. The largest vessel that can transit the Panama Canal is known as a Panamax-size vessel (ships ranging from 60,000 to 80,000 deadweight tons and no wider than 106 ft).
To make the canal more accessible, the Panama Canal Authority undertook an expansion program planned to be completed by 2015. The expansion will be able to accommodate a fully loaded Aframax tanker at 120,000 deadweight tons,29 but will not be able to accommodate carriers the size of VLCCs or larger. The Panama Canal Authority website features a description of the expansion program and progress reports.
thousand barrels per day | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
Panama Canal total flows | |||||
total oil | 788 | 741 | 755 | 802 | 849 |
crude oil | 176 | 110 | 119 | 118 | 91 |
refined products | 612 | 630 | 637 | 684 | 759 |
Panama Canal southbound flows | |||||
total oil | 588 | 566 | 600 | 687 | 708 |
crude oil | 116 | 53 | 68 | 71 | 39 |
refined products | 471 | 514 | 532 | 616 | 669 |
Panama canal northbound flows | |||||
total oil | 200 | 174 | 156 | 115 | 141 |
crude oil | 60 | 57 | 51 | 47 | 51 |
refined products | 140 | 117 | 105 | 68 | 90 |
Notes: Tcf = Trillion cubic feet. 2013 LNG is a preliminary estimate. Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence, Panama Canal Authority (with EIA conversions).30 |
Figure 7. Map of Panama Canal
Source: CIA Factbook (See closer view of Panama Canal)
Trans-Panama Pipeline
The Trans-Panama Pipeline (TPP), operated by Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (PTP), is located outside the former Canal Zone near the Costa Rican border. It runs from the port of Charco Azul on the Pacific coast to the port of Chiriqui Grande in Bocas del Toro, Panama on the Caribbean Sea. The pipeline began operating in 1982, with the original purpose of facilitating crude oil shipments from Alaska's North Slope to refineries in the Caribbean and in the U.S. Gulf Coast.31 However, in 1996, the TPP was shut down as oil companies began shipping Alaskan crude along alternative routes. Since 1996, there have been intermittent requests and proposals to use the TPP. In August 2009, the TPP completed a project to reverse its flows so the pipeline could transport oil from the Caribbean to the Pacific. The pipeline's capacity is about 600,000 bbl/d.32
In 2012, BP and PTP signed a seven-year transportation and storage agreement, allowing BP to lease storage facilities located on the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Panama and to use the pipeline to transport crude oil to U.S. West Coast refiners. According to PTP, BP has leased 5.4 million barrels of PTP's storage and committed to east-to-west shipments through the pipeline averaging 100,000 bbl/d. The route reduces transport time and costs of ships having to go around Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America to get to the U.S. West Coast.33
According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, 95,000 bbl/d of crude oil was transported through the pipeline to the port of Charco Azul in 2013, an increase of more than 20,000 bbl/d from the previous year.
Danish Straits
The Danish Straits are an important route for Russian oil exports to Europe.
The Danish Straits consist of a series of channels that connect the Baltic Sea to the North Sea. They are an important route for Russian oil exports to Europe. An estimated 3.3 million bbl/d of crude oil and petroleum products flowed through the Danish Straits in 2013.
Russia shifted a significant portion of its crude oil exports to its Baltic ports after opening the port of Primorsk in 2005. In 2011, Primorsk oil exports accounted for more than half of all exports through the Danish Straits, although the volume fell to 42% in 2013. A small amount of oil (less than 100,000 bbl/d), primarily from Norway and the United Kingdom, also flowed eastward to Scandinavian markets in 2013.
Figure 8. Map of Danish Straits
Source: CIA Factbook
Cape of Good Hope
Although not a chokepoint, the Cape of Good Hope is a major global trade route. Crude oil flows around the Cape accounted for about 9% of all seaborne-traded oil.
The Cape of Good Hope, located on the southern tip of South Africa, is a significant transit point for oil tanker shipments around the globe. EIA estimates about 4.9 million bbl/d of seaborne-traded crude oil moved around the Cape of Good Hope in both directions in 2013, accounting for about 9% of all seaborne-traded oil. EIA does not currently estimate petroleum product flows around the Cape of Good Hope.
In 2013, 3.6 million bbl/d of crude oil around the world moved eastbound, originating mostly from Africa (2.1 million bbl/d) and from South America and the Caribbean (1.3 million bbl/d). Eastbound crude oil flows were nearly all destined for Asian markets (3.5 million bbl/d). In the opposite direction, nearly all westbound flows originated from the Middle East (1.3 million bbl/d), mostly destined for the Americas, with the United States making up a majority of the total.
The Cape of Good Hope is also an alternative sea route for vessels traveling westward seeking to bypass the Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb Straits, and/or the Suez Canal. However, diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope would increase costs and shipping time. For example, closure of the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline would necessitate diverting oil tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 2,700 miles to transit from Saudi Arabia to the United States, increasing both costs and shipping time, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.34
million bbl/d | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | ||
Total flows | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | ||
Eastbound | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | ||
Westbound | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | ||
Note: Estimates may not add up to their totals due to differences in rounding. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on Lloyd's List Intelligence35 |
- Data presented in the text are the most recent available as of November 10, 2014.
- Data are EIA estimates unless otherwise noted.
2U.S. Energy Information Administration analysis based on United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD/RMT/2013), Review of Maritime Transport 2013, Annex I: World seaborne trade by country group (December 2013). http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=753; Cedigaz, Statistical Database (August 29, 2013); Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database; BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014.
3UNCTAD, Review of Maritime Transport 2013, p. 37
4Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database; Panama Canal Authority, Annual Report 2013; Eastern Bloc Research, CIS and Eastern Europe Databook 2014;Suez Canal Authority, Traffic Statistics; UNCTAD/RMT/2013.
5U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Oil tanker sizes range from general purpose to ultra-large crude carriers on AFRA scale", Today in Energy (September 16, 2014). http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=17991
6Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database.
7BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (June 2014). http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
8Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database.
9National Defense University, "Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia", Institute for National Strategic Studies (1996), p. 2
10International Chamber Of Commerce (ICC) International Maritime Bureau, Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships â 2013 Annual Report, p. 21
11National Defense University, 1996. "Chokepoints: Maritime Economic Concerns in Southeast Asia", Institute for National Strategic Studies, pp. 80-81
12Larson, "China's Oil Pipeline Through Myanmar Brings Both Energy and Resentment." Bloomberg Businessweek (February 04, 2014). http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-04/chinas-oil-pipeline-through-myanmar-brings-both-energy-and-resentment
13IHS Energy, "Myanmar to receive 40,000 b/d of crude from Myanmar-China pipeline." Oil & Gas Risk Service (July 26, 2013)
14Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database; Cedigaz, Statistical Database (August 29, 2013);BP, Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 (June 2014).
15Suez Canal Authority, Suez Canal Future Plans.
16SUMED Arab Petroleum Pipelines Company, SUMED system: Main Pipelines and Share Holders.
17U.S. Department of Transportation, Economic Impact of Piracy in the Gulf of Aden on Global Trade, (2010).
18International Energy Agency, Oil Market Update, (January 31, 2011).
19Suez Canal Authority, Annual Report 2013 and Suez Canal Traffic Statistics; Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database.
20Association of French Ship Captains, The Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Service (TSVTS), http://www.afcan.org/dossiers_techniques/tsvts_gb.html
22Sam Jones, "Istanbul's new Bosphorus canal 'to surpass Suez or Panama'". The Guardian (April 27, 2013). http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/27/istanbul-new-bosphorus-canal
23Panama Canal Authority, This is the Canal (February 22, 2013). http://www.pancanal.com/eng/acp/asi-es-el-canal.html
24Panama Canal Authority, Transit Statistics Fiscal Year 2014.http://www.pancanal.com/eng/op/transit-stats/2014/2014-Table01.pdf
25Panama Canal Authority, Transit Statistics Fiscal Year 2014. http://www.pancanal.com/eng/op/transit-stats/2014/2014-Table09.pdf
26Panama Canal Authority, Transit Statistics Fiscal Year 2014. http://www.pancanal.com/eng/op/transit-stats/2014/2014-Table07.pdf
27Ibid, Table 7. http://www.pancanal.com/eng/op/transit-stats/2014/2014-Table07.pdf
29U.S. Energy Information Administration, Liquid Fuels and Natural Gas in the Americas (January 2014). http://www.eia.gov/countries/americas/pdf/americas.pdf
30Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database; Panama Canal Authority, Annual Report 2013.
31Fielden, "The Crude from Transpanama - Pipeline Shipments from the Gulf to the Pacific Coasts", RBN Energy (August 15, 2013). https://rbnenergy.com/the-crude-from-transpanama-pipeline-shipments-from-the-gulf-to-the-pacific-coasts
32Ibid; Burkhardt and Galouchko, "BP to Ship Crude on Trans-Panama Pipeline to U.S. West Coast," Bloomberg (February 2, 2012). http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-02/bp-to-ship-crude-on-trans-panama-pipeline-to-u-s-west-coast-1-.html
33Smith, "BP begins east-west crude pipeline shipments across Panama", Oil & Gas Journal (February 3, 2012). http://www.ogj.com/articles/2012/02/bp-begins-east-west-crude-pipeline-shipments-across-panama.html
34U.S. Department of Transportation, Economic Impact of Piracy in the Gulf of Aden on Global Trade, (2010).
35Lloyd's List Intelligence, Analysis of Petroleum Exports (APEX) database.


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