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You wrote Germany agreed to the euro to appease the French.
The German bundestag voted for the euro.
Is the German parliament under the control of the French?
"You wrote Germany agreed ..."
Emma, missed you.Still being consummated by that nagging hate for Germany.
Be careful, makes the skin look shriveled.....
But we Germans, being nice and caring people, have a remedy for that:
We even have products for little stinkers.:-)
Sherryblack: "You wrote Germany agreed to the euro to appease the French.... The German bundestag voted for the euro."
Hideous double standards as usual.
If a parliament makes a certain decision it can't be because of foreign influence?
Does this all-embracing wisdom of yours also apply to decisions of European parliaments TODAY?
Acknowledging the fact that the German parliament voted for the euro means Germans actually taking responsibility for their actions and we can't have that can we?
Don't expect a response but the usual personal attacks. However this is for others who might not know that the German bundestag voted for the euro after reading your usual scapegoating of others for Germany's own self inflicted blunder.
"Don't expect a response but the usual personal attacks."
Na, I didn't really expect one. But thanks for the heads up.
"Don't expect a response but the usual personal attacks"
What personal attack? I was just concerned about your looks.
Nivea has good products. Available in the beauty shop next door.
Give it a try. Quality made in Germany..........
Oh you have an obession with looks. Why are you lacking something in that department?
So sorry to hear that.
BTW, ship some Nivea to Merkel. She needs them real bad.
"Oh you have an obession with looks."
Emma do not be so harsh to our Teutonic friend.
Potentially he is a blond good looking Siegfried in his best age.
Oh please!
German men are sooooooooo boring. As for looks the less said the better.
@ Marie
Hey, Marie, take a look at this ? Are the French going to be like Bavarians?
'Le Monde Diplomatique', December. "L'Europe face à l' Hégémonie allemande".
« Dans un article publié dans 'Merkur', la plus importante revue d'opinion de la République fédérale, Pr Christoph Schönberger explique que la sorte d'hégémonie que l'Allemagne est destinée à exercer en Europe doit être comprise au sens constitutionnel rassurant, donné par le juriste Heinrich Triepel ; à savoir la fonction de guide dévolue à l'Etat le plus puissant au sein d'un système fédéral, à l'instar de la Prusse dans l'Allemagne des XIX – XX siècles ».
In an article published in 'Merkur', Germany's most important opinion-forming review, Pr. C S explains that the sort of hegemony that Germany is destined to exercise in Europe must be understood as constitutionally reassuring, as expounded by the jurist Heinrich Triepel; that is to say the role of guide devolving on the most powerful State within a federal system, similar to that exercised by Prussia in 19th/20th Century Germany.
(Cont'd ) "Pour fonctionner, l'Union requiert que l'Etat qui l'emporte en population et en richesse lui donne cohésion et direction. L'Europe a besoin de l'hégémonie allemande et les Allemands doivent cesser de se montrer timides dans son exercice. La France, dont l'arsenal nucléaire et le siège permanent au Conseil de Sécurité de l'ONU ne comptent plus pour grand'chose, devrait réviser d'autant ses prétensions. L'Allemagne devrait traiter la France comme Bismarck le faisait avec la Bavière dans cet autre système qui fut le II Reich, gratifiant le partenaire inférieur de faveurs symboliques et de consolations bureaucratiques. »
Trans :
In order for the Union to work, it is necessary for the most populated and richest State to provide cohesion and guidance. Europe needs German hegemony and the Germans should cease being diffident in exercising it. France, whose nuclear arsenal and permanent seat at the UNSC no longer count for much, should review their claims (i.e. to have much influence on the decision making). Germany should treat France as Bismarck treated Bavaria during the II Reich, gratifying her inferior partner with symbolic favours and bureaucratic consolations.
(Cont'd) "On peut se demander pour combien de temps l'autosubordination française durera sans la moindre reaction. Les fanfaronnades de Volker Kauder, secrétaire général de la CDU, disant que ' l'Europe parle désormais allemand ' sont plus faites pour susciter du ressentiment que de la docilité. Reste que, depuis bien des années, il n'est pas de classe politique dans l'Union qui ne soit pas plus unanimement conformiste dans ses vues que celle de la France. Pour la même raison, il n'y a pas de pays où le gouffre entre l'opinion populaire et les exhortations officielles est demeuré si profond.
Trans :
One may well ask how long this French 'self-subordination' will last without any reaction. The trumpeting by Volker Kauder, CDU general secretary, that 'Europe from now on speaks German' is guaranteed to cause resentment rather than docility. And yet for many years there has been no political class in the Union that has been so unanimously conformist in its views as the French. For the same reason there is NO COUNTRY WHERE THE GULF BETWEEN PUBLC OPINION AND OFFICIAL EXHORTATIONS REMAINS SO PROFOUND.
(BTW According to the article, Bismarck described a Bavarian as 'half Austrian, half human being').
"Europe needs German hegemony and the Germans should cease being diffident in exercising it. "
Wise words. Fully endorse that statement.
And to cite Bismarck again:
"Beware of sentimental alliances where the consciousness of good deeds is the only compensation for noble sacrifices."
"He who has his thumb on the purse has the power."
The Germans got so scared when their tankers got hijacked by the Taliban they asked the US to bomb the tankers in a panic.
The Germans in Afghanistan are in the safe areas, occassionally they get ambushed and have to get rescued by the Americans.
Apparently more Americans have been awarded the German gold cross than Germans - see clip below. Oh lord!
"Apparently more Americans..."
You seem to be quite a "funny" character judging by your "insightful" comment.
I never read/ heard American military service personnel giving such stupid comments on German military service personnel in Afghanistan. Or vice versa. And looking at the video itself, the American soldiers seem to be quite proud of getting that medal.
Obviously each country has to bear its share of weirdos and looneys....
So the Banking union is still delayed until March 2014, and must be passed through the EU parlianment scrutiny.... and through the Bundestag's !
How comes that the Bundestag has its word to say on a EU project?
Note that this banking union is conforming to what Germany requested, only big international banks would have to submit their balance sheet...
It's one more "pavé dans la mare"
Note too, that neither France, nor Germany are in a hurry for any Integration, they almost agree that they disagree on everything !
the italien press ire at Merkavialli interferring in Italy inner policy
While Sikorski interfers in Britain 's
Banking Union another sick EU joke.
How do you like the idea of Banking Supervisors from an organisation that hasn't had its own books supervised for the LAST 18 YEARS?
I always knew the EU had a deathwish, but this is not even funny.
Sikorski was received as a usefull idiot puppet emissary from what you call Merkavialli. All he succeeded in doing was to stiffen the will to leave this disastrous "EU".
What these authoritarian and antidemocratic idiots invariably fail to grasp with their "what will happen to Britain outside the EU" threats is that it is our affair: by using these threats they make themselves even more transparent and disliked as racketeers using mafia tactics - greedy for our contributions and nothing else, trying to dress it up as solidarity with some vague solidairity in a "common destiny" in this bungling, corrupt "union".
Bah ! Humbug !
"How comes that the Bundestag has its word to say on a EU project?"
Very simple: Because it is no EU matter.
What gives them the right to create another centralistic monster (subsidiarity!!!) ?
And no, just because a mad idea affects the whole EU it doesn't mean it's a EU matter.
EDIT - "dress it up as solidarity with some vague "common destiny" in this bungling, corrupt "union".
A reality check outside the self-serving and unpopular emissaries of the Brussels bubble from the PEW Research Center:
"European Unity on the rocks".
"Among the five euro area nations surveyed, a median of only 37% believes having the euro as their currency has been a good thing. This includes just 30% of the Italians and 31% of the French. At the same time, the three non-euro zone countries surveyed are quite happy they have kept their own currencies, including nearly three-quarters of the British (73%)."
"Moreover, as public criticism of European unity grows, faith in its benefits and institutions erodes. Since 2009, belief that European economic integration, the raison d'être of the European Union, has weakened their national economy has grown by 22 percentage points in the Czech Republic, 20 points in Italy, and 18 points in Spain. And, since 2007, the favorability of the European Union as an organization has fallen 20 points in Spain and the Czech Republic, 19 points in Italy and 14 points in Poland".
I am against this banking union as proposed. It was written on top of their knees as we say in Portugal.
"Note that this banking union is conforming to what Germany requested,..."
Poor little sad Marie, always complaining. Did France not get everything it demanded? How pitiful. Greedy France trying to get a hold on German Sparkassen. Unfortunately for you, not going to happen. German money, so tempting....
France always wants to have the say, but who it's gonna call to pay? Please tell....
yet, why only Germany is allowed to "refuse" a EU summit decision?
you can keep your Sparkassen, that are full of jerk Debt from the american, Spanish, Irish housing bubbles
and you will pay, like you already pay for them in your own Land
Though when the euro will crash, that will be the APOCALYPSE, Hello Weimar all again !
"yet, why only Germany is allowed to "refuse" a EU summit decision?"
What do you mean, "refuse"? The EU doesn't have the power to enable a Banking union. If the European leaders still agree on a Banking union this has to be ratified. Hence the Parliament.
This is nothing particularly German...
isn't it funny, the today EU is directed by former USSSR Apparatchiks, that use insidious threats of a war, and of a economical bankrupting, if we don't follow their route.
Also demonstrated in the video of the Nobel price ceremony, these people use the "reconciliation" of France and Germany as a banner.
Of course there's no more such armed conflicts, but it's still a economical war that the strongest state is manoeuvering on us.
You can see as usual which are the servile governments of such a Berlin dictature
no, the Brussels decision prevails on our parliaments.
Except that Germany kept the Karlsruhe Court as a buffer when the Germans don't agree with a Brussels decision, none other state has this advantage
"Of course there's no more such armed conflicts, but it's still a economical war that the strongest state is manoeuvering on us."
That would be the first war in history in which France doesn't even bother defending herself.
Wrong, again.
Banking union is NOT a Brussels decisions. Hence there is nothing to "prevail".
hmm, our Elite is collaborationist, that knows that if it had to ask the people, 70% would reject their compromission, that would be the end of their priviledges as fat waged Apparat employees.
If things get worse, that will not be the first time that we cut heads.
Montebourg is credited of his rebellion vs Mittal, while Hollande/Aurault fell lower 30% in the polls
it's a decision made in Brussels by the EZ/EU governments
"it's a decision made in Brussels by the EZ/EU governments"
Exactly. It is a decision of the nation's governments. The location doesn't matter. It doesn't matter whether it's a Brussels or a Timbuktu decision.
It's no EU legislation. Hence it can't prevail.
and though it does !
"why only Germany is allowed to "refuse""
Because he who pays the piper calls the tune ...
And because we are Germany, and not France...:-)
""reconciliation" of France and Germany"
When did that happen? Did Merkel make a present to Hollande?
This blog is fatigued because of the EU theater being analysed to death from all angles...perhaps the blame game has omitted the "male sex drive" for the EZ quagmire.
Seriously, the male sex drive is so powerful that if it were to be eliminated, the entire economy would crash in one day. There would be nobody to work nobody in school. All we would do is lie around and eat and fart and get fat. The sex drive is what makes men get up in the morning. It's the machine that runs the world. Why do men want to be successful? To get women...
It doesn't get much deeper than that. Now we have exhausted the last possible cause of the EZ failings.
Like nearly all of my recent posts in response to Pedro's violent accusations, the comment containing the below excerpt mysteriously disappeared.
I'm confident the moderators will allow me to repost the below segment, which cannot possibly violate their comments' policy and is entirely on-topic.
Portugal's de facto default didn't come as a surprise to anyone who's been reading eco-fin newspapers for the past decade and a half. Economists have warned about Portugal's steadily deteriorating fundamentals since the mid-1990s. But apparently not many Portuguese cared to listen.
It's the oldest of stories.
I think they needed the IMF partly because the know they are not up to the job as has been demontrated recently in respect to germanys relucance to facerealtity and take haircut. Also to provide poltical cover through the IMF doing what they can not. Which in a twisty turning way is exactly what is happening. Its just that makes it a better pitch to infer would be much harsher for harshers sake as germany may have been its self rather than would take a pragmatic view to resolving these issues.
One problem of Euro zone in respect to IMF is that always think may be it be easier if currency zone is treated as one counrty and lend money to the eurozone rather than specifically to one state in the united states of europe as otherwise there is not perfect aligiment of incentives. However pratically this may very diffcult i guess. As if lend to one state euro zone there is moral hazzard in that euro zones benefits in its self but not repaying so not correct alignemnt unlike lending to eurozone its selfs.
The eurozone by using the imf to fund speific counrties rather doing self most likly hoped to freewheel by the misaligment incentives. Maintaining benefits and costs falling disprotely in non workable way. If had lent as euro would wanted eurozone blame imf for unrealtic program. So in a sense they try set up the IMF for there poltical advanatage. The IMF would have faced losses and seen as cause of unrelastic austerity rather than the euro counrties them self.
On the instigation of the moderators who deplore my comment having been removed as a tailpiece of Josh I think ....
Josh and Francisco
Please do not try to make me an adherent of Nietzsche. As much as I may be addicted to his prose, as much I find some of his "philosophy" revolting. Same goes for my attitude to Mencken.
Unlike with composers, say Wagner, one cannot separate the men from their work, as they are dealing in words. "An den Mistral" to me is one of the most divine and at the same time monstrous poems. I can identify with the first part. I find the second part revolting. That's life. Never black and white. Baruch Spinoza is my man. Jesus my lantern in the dark.
How would Jesus have ruled faced with a junky. More of the same to keep him happy or Cold Turkey to nurse him back to sanity? I think I know the answer.
Survival of the fittest is what has made CroMagnon possible since the very beginning of life a billion years or so ago. Civilization, handed down to us from the Egyptians through Moses and the Greeks is what opposes and mellows this law but it is only a thin veneer
overlaying our reptilian nature, which still rules underneath and, so far, has never been overcome. Socialism, the real kind, is a brave attempt. Our Social Market Economy its highest level so far climbed under constant attacks from the reptilian natures surrounding it, the oligarchs and banksters, motivated by nature's prime force: greed. I just need to look at our two dogs at feeding time to understand banksters, Wall Street or The City of London. Same greed.
All I am saying is that if we try to go down the route of civilization ONLY, disregarding what lies underneath, we will probably fail. I personally may be in favour to "gift" money to the Greeks, to create a Transfer Union as the way forward for Europe BUT I am very much in the minority here. The majority faced with such choice (especially if the shoe was on the other foot and the GIPS suddenly became the givers) will flatly refuse. Therefore, I maintain, only a Europe where everybody is seen to be a winner will work.
I maintain that the GIPS even in their present depressed state are winners compared to what they would be in the absence of the EU … AND THEY KNOW IT. We do not have to sell them on this idea.
We need to convince the Northeners that they also are winners, even though expected to guarantee for the South at present and need to go on with it, accelerate rather than brake in the sharp bend on the precipice we are in. We can all be the winners.
The big losers will be the ones in Europe left out of it.
I maintain that the GIPS even in their present depressed state are winners compared to what they would be in the absence of the EZ ...
"We need to convince the Northeners that they also are winners"
Good luck with that. The latest polls clearly show that the majority of Germans do not support Ferkel's so called rescue-policy any longer:
http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Politbarometer/ [1]
This means that the OPPOSITE of "convincing that they are also winners" is currently happening. Consequence: Sooner or later the bailout policy will come to an end and hence will the Euro.
"the GIPS are winners ... We do not have to sell them on this idea."
Are you implying that if they don't want to believe that "idea" we will have to MAKE THEM believe it?
Leave it up to them.
"I maintain that the GIPS even in their present depressed state are winners compared to what they would be in the absence of the EZ ..."
There are but two clear choices here Dear Brother:
1. Put on rubber gloves, take toilet brush in hand, and walk silently with head down, defeated and filled with angst, to Germany to participate in their pay-toilet scrubbing Mini-Jobs Program. As I understand the situation, the jobs comes with free uniforms. This uniform must be worn at all times of course.
Any individual caught not wearing the uniform will be fined 5,000 Euros for a first offense. After which, the fines increase exponentially, up to a third infraction, at which time the said perpetrator of the offense will be returned to his native country, at his own expense of course, where he is to be ostracized by the locals for failing to wear the uniform with pride...laughs
2. Run, don't walk to the Americas my fellow Europeans, where the living is easy, and the money flows like honey!!!
Now, on a separate note, I'm circulating a petition. Who here votes to banish la vy from the blog? I will take a vote of silence as a YES, and a vote of YES as a YES as well of course. Votes of NO will be given consideration, but may not find their way into the ballot box.
what GIPS? That's the biggest media creation of the 21st century. Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Hungary, Denmark, etc. etc. etc. are all in rather similar crises. So can you please stop this, once and for all.
I wonder if the fish have heard me preaching..
That's the Greek myth Charlemagne should be writing about.
@ Pumpernickel:
"I maintain that the GIPS even in their present depressed state are winners compared to what they would be in the absence of the EZ ..."
I'm not so sure about that, to be frank. Italy is hanging on, but Greece, Portugal and Spain did not do them a favor by prematurely joining a currency composed of still vastly more competitive economies.
@ Pedro:
Denial is a river in Egypt.
1. LATVIA and LITHUANIA have shown how to get OUT OF a crisis by swiftly introducing austerity measures of an extent Portugal has not even contemplated enacting.
2. DENMARK and THE NETHERLANDS are paragons of economic and fiscal health. Both have also disporportionately contributed to the economic development of your own country, Portugal, over the past three decades, so have at least the decency to stop insulting them on end.
pedrolx2 in reply to Pumpernickel_ Dec 12th, 14:40
"what GIPS? That's the biggest media creation of the 21st century. Croatia, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Hungary, Denmark, etc. etc. etc. are all in rather similar crises. So can you please stop this, once and for all."
Croatia is not even an EU member, the other countries you mention haven't joined the euro yet, apart from Slovenia and the Netherlands, neither of which have needed bailouts. So none of them can be described as "GIPS".
"GIPS" for Pumpernickel are those fortunate countries that are being 'floated off the rocks' through German economic wisdom, having their leaders appointed by German diktat and their budgets scrutinized in advance by German know-alls. 'Pain' is being inflicted so that 'gain' may be enjoyed at some future, unspecified date. This is known as the new "Work sets one free" program which I hesitate to quote in German for fear of deletion.
Indeed they haven't. Slovenia almost did, but it was probably 'saved' so that it wouldn't really disrupt the concept. we wouldn't want that now would we?
The rest is similar. What you call a bail-out I call low interest rates (artificially so). It is the same thing, just a different stench.
The real pigs here are the ones mentioned in that farm somewhere in England. Apparently they took over the world.
by the way, Croatia is days away from becoming EU's 27th member state
"What you call a bail-out I call low interest rates (artificially so). It is the same thing, just a different stench."
Very different, simply because those non GIPS countries, more relevantly those in the EZ, understood what responsibilities those "artificial rates" carried with them, and therefore UNLIKE Iberia and Greece have not attracted the "tough love" of the "troika":)
Not counting Britain anymore
Did they? Is it why they are more indebted than 'Iberia' ? I wasn't referring to the low interest rates per-2008 but those they are enjoying now simply because they scared investors away from 'Iberian' debt. Get it? Or are you dumbo?
Im pretty sure you're not btw. You're another one needing a lesson or two in humility. What do you know of my country ? Next to nothing. So go read 1000 books on it and then maybe we can discuss. Just the fact you use Iberia to speak of Portugal and Spain demonstrates your clear lack of knowledge on the subject. For Spain the Portuguese 'bail-out' was a blessing. As it was for you lot, since you're in to your knees on that one mess .
"Who here votes to banish la vy from the blog?"
NO. Long live democracy.....
You are a most thoughtful man indeed Sinnlos, but be sure to exercise caution here. I believe pedro has already alluded to the workings of Athenian democracy, and I assure you, it is by no means a process that takes fools like la vy lightly.
We of course are talking about a group of all male citizens here, not unlike ourselves. An all boys club, one of the first of its kind, and I would argue that like the Athenians before us, it is our God given duty to cut the weak la vy from the herd here.
Now,of course I understand that the Athenians of their day kept slaves, but here the similarities end my Dear Sinnlos. The corporations of our day employ workers, but I am sure you will agree, that not unlike a slave working to buy his freedom through hard work and sound economic planning, a man, or even a woman of our day, can rise through the ranks in this meritocracy of ours, and thereby gain membership into our all boys club.
However, and herein lies the rub Sinnlos, we all know that la vy resides in this great nation of ours, as do Viva and I, but in spite of this, and all the terrible economic data coming out of the European continent to the contrary, la vy continues to fail to acknowledge the superiority of our economic system, which would benefit Europeans like pedro to find gainful employment, clinging to his failed economic policy of austerity no less, becasue it benefits his precious Germany.
I ask, should not pedro be given a fair opportunity at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, like Viva and I, and why has la vy chosen to obstruct justice for all Europeans! Has any man the right to deny pedro a fair say in his own affairs? Of course not! And how dare la vy presume to know what is right for our pedro!
Therefore, as in all great democracies, it gives my great pleasure to announce, it is time for us to take a vote gentlemen.
quite a speech there.
I don't know which economic model will function best in the medium to long term.
Our politicians seem to believe austerity is the way forward. I, partly, agree with them, and await, in awe, what shall come of all this.
Until then, I'll give them the benifit of doubt.
I am perfectly aware that the problem isn't our welfare system but how the private sector 'f'd it all up, from banks to construction companies, and how they all want to save their rears now.
Let's see how it works. It should tend to some kind of equilibrium even if a meta-stable one.
The Goldman Sachs/IMF economic model is already being implemented as we speak pedro, but alas, I fear we will not see the results of their plans for a united Europe in our diminished lifetimes. Not unlike stone masons, they continuously are building the globe in their most, shall we say, western image.
The European project, although be it late to be undertaken, will indeed be worth the effort in the end, in spite of all the mistakes that have been a long the way. But make no bones about it pedro, It will be a transfer union, and it will also be implemented so slowly in fact, that hardly anyone will even notice the changes that must be made on the national political fronts for this transformation to occur. The final result however, I assure you, will be proactive monetary policy for all. So of course it follows that austerity will eventually be viewed as a most insignificant first act of the play that set the stage for the birth of United Nations of Europe as a monetary union.
In the end, it is our children and grandchildren who will be the beneficiaries of this monumental straggle of ours, but in our search through the annuls of history, I ask rhetorically, is not this always the case pedro.
Who cares? Economics is horse manure. What counts is politics. You should read your forefathers zorbs
Whose politics Pedro, yours, mine, Pumpers, or Forlana's. Therein lies the problem I suspect. Hell, it's bad enough we have the two parties to contend with here in the US. Multiply that by how many nations in the EU? Let us just say that where the Markets are concerned, Europe's version of a Chinese Fire Drill, don't exactly inspire confidence, and leave it at that, shall we.
Crispy and roasted please, with French "Freedom" fries as side dish.
And, you get a tip if I am pleased .....
Crispy tator totas with tator tots and a tip! You're too kind Sinfried...laughs
That's spelled ta-tas of course. Normally I'm not a stickler for spelling, but far be it from Zorbas to misspell ta-tas...laughs
The solution of the present European fiscal quagmire will not differ from the others such as US or Japan being in the same situation i.e. high debt burden. In this respect the remedy such as curtailing Germany's export is not it...to make GIPS work like slaves is not it...or to abandon single currency is equally not it.
Keynes's opus magnum was created in 1936 - let us blame him; after all the market forces suggest if interest is dirt cheap you suppose to borrow and borrow more.
Which road (or combination of) to follow to reach the elusive light at the end of the tunnel?
1. Expanding money supply – makes sense will dwarf the debt and bring some growth. Status of the inventory level will dampen the inflation. 2. Debt restructuring – nothing wrong with improving the chances of debt repayment. 3. Revamp the nonsensical rating agencies premise, whereby a creditor's ability to retrieve his money is better apparently after downgrade and higher interest payments. 4. Tax cuts – failed to bring about the GDP growth and thus generated less revenue. 5. Austerity – causing misery and GDP contraction and ultimately relative increases of debt.
Never fear Seven, GS, the IMF, and of course the good old USA are on the job now. Germany has been thoroughly admonished as the bit player that she will remain, and the monetary union will be constructed from scratch. All remaining German Central Bankers may tender their resignations accordingly of course. The battle is over. No schools of economic thought left to discuss.
Problems? Yes, this proactive monetary policy union is very late in coming. There will be one lost generation of workers for the periphery, if not more. For Northern Europe and America however, No problems whatsoever. Just business as usual.
Now, how did pleasant conversation in Germany switch so quickly from "we're building a united Europe", to: "Oh no, not us!"
Could self interest have anything to do with it? Perish the thought.
Mr Hare,
Indeed some people here write either to themselves (sometomes my case even) or just what they think it's in the best interests of their country or whatever affiliation they have. It is difficult to have an honest debate here because there are many around representing certain lobbies, interests, private sectors, the EU, movements, etc.
It is a funny blog.
What cannot be accepted, is 'lack of tea'.
I am pretty sure both of us had it. It takes one to know one.
oftimes on here some people demonstrate a generalised 'lack of tea' either by showing they were not given proper education by their respective carers, or demonstrating a clear lack of knowledge on certain basic topics.
Then there is the worst of the worst, which is the viperousness of some of our fellow blogposters. Those deserve nothing more than to be shown a short moment of disgust, followed by generalised contempt associated with an assertive disdain that can be recognised by them as a demonstration of your superiority over such petty little creatures.
Sinn Frei,
You are quite wrong.
Portugal defeated Germany (in Angola) in WW I
And participated in the trenches in the Belgian border.
Apparently, only one soldier (known as soldier millions by his UK comrades) was needed to defeat an entire batallion of Alemães.
Apparently Germany's not so good with wars. I would admit to it being good in other things, but wars isn't really your thing. Not that it would be something to boast about.
As to 'history of default' - someone in the 40s or even 30s (or 50s) would have had a laugh if you mentioned Germany ever repaying its debts.
Even Salazar stopped taking Hitler's money to buy the Tungsten he so needed to build his tanks, as word had it that the money was fake. Thus how all that gold ended up in Portugal.
Don't try to play a superior hand when you can easily be crushed by facts.
I am in principle, not against what is happening in the eurozone at the moment, for reasons that I have explained a thousand times over.
I will not admit to this idea that you sell that you are somehow 'superior' to Southern Europe. In what way? Historically speaking that is indeed another 'Greek myth', taking on the title of this article. Especially when it comes to poor old Poor-tugal .
This said, and my short period away from this blog can be explained by a trip made to Germany, more specifically to Bonn.
I had the honour of having had meetings in what was the former Bundestag of the Federal German Republic before reunification. And it truly was an honour to me.
I admire the Germans (albeit they should learn the power of queuing on bus and tram stops as we do in Portugal) for what they've achieved in such a short period after WW II.
They are at the forefront of many things, and are admired by their peers around the World.
We have a saying in Portuguese 'faz-te a fama, e deita-te na cama' (make yourself famous, then go lie in your bed). They managed to create an image of perfection, precision, efficiency, which precedes them and is the perfect welcoming card, even if oftimes it is nothing but a 'Greek myth'.
What transpired to the international press about Portugal recently is obviously only one part of a very intricate story, that one day will hopefully be told in full honesty.
My mother used to say to me that truth was like a piece of wood. No matter how hard you try to bury it in water, it will always come back to the surface.
Obviously there were debt problems, which were generalised to the entirety of the continent. Portugal had the bad chance of being an easy prey, and convenient for everyone that it would take what the press calls these days the 'bail-out'. Even for some of the Portuguese.
La V was asking Mr Hare why the Portuguese aren't buying their own debt back, truth is the Portuguese bond yield curve has bee gradually correcting itself (despite the doom foretold by the rating agencies, which represent interests of their own), and was the most profitable debt in the market for the year 2012, as anyone can attest.
I have nothing else to say about this matter.
In fact all these discussions right now are mere rhetoric. In practical terms, the euro very likely survived, and all nations are closer than they were before the crisis. United in diversity, sometimes in total disagreement, or even in violent disagreement. SO what. That is Europe for me.
A good businessman knows how to act in all possible situations, even in one where he will clearly lose, at least on a superficial level.
And that is all.
"A good businessman knows how to act in all possible situations, even in one where he will clearly lose, at least on a superficial level."
Exactly Pedro! Decision Making Theory. Been practicing it myself for 30 years now. it's real simple, you consider all the known information against all the known possibilities, crunch the numbers, and pick the option that produces the greatest utility and/or profit.
Now, shall we talk long term or short term profit? I prefer looking at the big picture, and therefore most often look at sustainability, and long term profits, unless of course there is no future in a given venture, and then my friend, it is time for a fire sale, for lack of a better term.
"Make yourself famous then go lie in bed."
Bravo Pedro! Words I live by. Or, as my father use to say, work hard and save your money while your still young, because when your old, and you don't know this yet, you wont have it left to work hard enough, and even if you do, nobody will want you.
And never mind la vy. The backside of all of his trousers have been torn to shreds, from the truth having bitten him in the @ss so many times.
I shall go for nothing. There's always a future.
"Portugal defeated Germany (in Angola) in WW I"
Oh Pedro, you sad little defender of your countries honor. Your are obviously as inept at history (and English language) as you are at economics. Citing incomplete and faulty Wikipedia texts does not count a historical facts. Did you write that text by any chance?
"...the Portuguese were forced to withdraw towards the Humbe region, with 69 soldiers dead, among them 3 officers, 76 wounded, among them 1 officer, and 79 prisoners, among them 3 officers, while the Germans had 12 soldiers dead and 30 wounded, among them 10 officers."
Hm, how does this account to a Portuguese victory? You have the higher losses and have to withdraw. Sounds like a 100% defeat to me.
"Two days later German forces in South West Africa surrendered..."
Yes, the German troops surrendered , but not to the Portuguese but to the South-Africans due to numerical superiority. In both cases it was Victor Franke, being in charge.
As to "Aníbal Milhais" , obviously your personal hero. Killing attacking enemies with a machine gun is standard WW1 fair (+ a high casualty rate for the attackers). As the British, they know... In Flandern Fields ... And for the statement "...leaving hundreds of Germans dead..." there is not even a source given for that claim (the given links are no better).
"...Apparently Germany's not so good with wars .. but wars isn't really your thing ...." Har, Har, Har...... Clausewitz or Guderian or von Moltke or ...or ...or ..... my Eye.... Ask the US army who influenced them ...
See, I even changed my moniker for you. To acknowledge the fact that debates with people who know everything (even if they know nothing) is futile. Hence, from now on I call myself Sinnlos.... A word that is the epitome for South Europe....
"I admire the Germans.."
Translates into German funded EU subsidies, I presume ....
"...for what they've achieved in such a short period after WW II."
Take a lesson... BTW, what did Portugal achieve with all the EU subsidies
in the last 3 decades? Please enlighten us....
Hello birtnick.
Portugal WON the war against Germany.
In Angola and in Belgium .
Full stop.
@ Sinnlos (1/2):
As we all know, WWI was a 1-on-1 between Germany and Portugal, and Portugal won. LOL
What's next? Nepal "won WW1" because of the Ghurka regiment in the British Army?
Gimme a break.
@ Sinnlos (2/2):
Funny to think that this guy was the biggest Portuguese WW1 hero. You probably had thousands of his sort in the armies of any major WW2 participant. But I guess the Portuguese war minister had to pin that medal on someone's lapel, and the cook wasn't considered impressive enough.
This guy did exactly what e. g. a handful of German Wehrmacht soldiers in their early 20s did at the Normandy beaches, when they held the beach fortifications against tens of thousands of Allied soldiers for hours, inflicting over 3,000 casualties in a single day. If well-positioned, a machine gun is a sadly powerful tool (or at least was at the time).
"Portugal WON the war against Germany. "
And I always thought that France, Britain (+ colonies), Belgium and the US defeated Germany in WW1. Why is that nobody ever mentions the great nation of Portugal wining that war?
"In Angola?" Eh, when did that happen? In an alternate universe ?
" German forces under von Lettow-Vorbeck captured Namakura/Nhamacurra in Portuguese East Africa and seized important arms and supplies for his force after similar smaller successes against Portuguese outposts had already helped reprovision his force." In 1918.
Battle of La Lys ... "The German Sixth Army deployed eight divisions (about 100,000 men), supported by intensive artillery fire. Against this force, the Portuguese had 20,000 soldiers and 88 guns. As a result, the Second Division was annihilated during the battle. The Portuguese CEP lost 327 officers and 7,098 soldiers, about 35% of its effective fighting capacity." Victory ?
Funny, nowadays everybody defeated Germany single-handedly.
Even sh*tty countries like yours.
But I guess George Lucas will like your "historical" narration.
After Red Tails (black soldiers defeating Hitler), Pink Tails (LGBT fighters defeating Hitler), Green Tails (environmentalist fighters defeating Hitler) there will Portuguese Tails - How a little Band of Brothers defeated the Kaiser. You starring as Indiana Pedro. In Cinema 2018.
Here you find a summary of your "victories"...
"..the biggest Portuguese WW1 hero"
Well said, and there is even no proof for his claims (hundreds
of dead ...). All of this seems to be based on his narration to a Scottish officer he rescued. So, as it stands all of his exploits might just be fantasy.
A couple of days without visiting this blog and nothing has changed. In fact, I feel less and less inclined to come visit.
Only to come here and see that I, and my name, my family's name, vilipended in such a viperous manner.
I feel utterly disgusted.
I may have made a few jokes here and there. I may have crossed the line here and there. But my intent was always one and one only.
I tried my best to express my opinion on what Europe should be, the several roles each country should have in them, now and in the future.
I made a sincere effort to try and make people, including myself, to think outside the box if only just for a minute and see that never is what is said by the vast majority the truth. We make the truth.
I will not dabble in philosophical intricacies, but I think I've achieved my goal.
I have long been thinking to myself as of late, that there is truly nothing new to learn here among you. Especially when the 'qualities' of certain bloggers are so deserving of public disapproval.
Today's visit to the blog has shown how right I was.
For all the sad jokes I made, I never crossed the line of uncivility.
I feel abused. If there was an Internet police I would certainly go there and explain my case.
I cannot accept this.
I will not say this is my last participation on Charlemagne's blog.
If anyone can advise me on how to press virtual charges against the public misuse of someone's name on a blog, please do it so. Some have my contact.
I also reiterate my demand to the moderators to take action against the public abuse of my name.
Thank you.
Give up the ship Eurobots! All is lost I fear. Need ye further proof of the impending gloom and doom that awaits the periphery? Sell you homes and relocate now! The housing markets dead you say?
Well Things are picking up here in the good old US of A. Unemployment's down. New jobs are being created. Inflation is in check. Proactive counter cyclical monetary policy is working you see. No surprises there. You prefer German voodoo Economic?
Who you going to believe, Zorbas who's living high on the hog here in the good old US of A, or the Germans who visit your poor countries with their extra spending money that they stole from you and say: "Tisk, tisk, if only they would work harder."
I know Eurobots, it's hard to think correctly with your empty stomachs ah rumbling as they do. A CALL TO ARMS QUICKLY THEN, before you all pass out from hunger!
Come to America, one and all. Here we have work, and more money then we can use.
Ration? Austerity? No, no, no, these are German words. Never fear my left out in the cold friends, there are no Germans here, just friendly, generous, money printing Americans...laughs
You have just disclosed your political affiliation, you are not a Republican. You may also be deceiving, but statements like: "Unemployment's down...New jobs are being created...Inflation is in check" are forbidden in the Republican family as long as Obama is in office. Who is lying here?
I'm a socially progressive, fiscally conservative, independent democrat - small 'd'. I hope that clarifies things Seven...laughs
PS - Politics is confusing stuff. Let me clarify
Nixon: "I am not a crook..."
Bad way to start a Press Conference...laughs
I don't think Portugal is peripheral. First instance of a gentlemanly disagreement with you.
Second instance. For me there is one America and one America only. The land chartered by Amerigo Vespuccio on his three or four voyages at the service of the Portuguese Crown. That land is nowadays known as Brazil. I would actually move there if they'd be so kind as to have an old-fashioned Portugeezer in their midst. Rio is the one and only, and the obvious choice . What am I waiting for? I don't know. I also like it here. The more I leave the more I like it. I think Freud explains it
Dear Pedro:
I myself have been a few days without coming here and really it's painful to note that when some people are not humble enough to look at themselves and with an open mind recognize just one of their mistakes, or at least to doubt about some of their certainties, there is nothing constructive to discuss or learn with them.
Moreover the sum of several monologues about the same subject does not make a dialogue. And without an honest dialogue what is the purpose of this forum?
So better let them alone talking and expose their exceptional and unassailable Northern virtues and let them reach their intellectual orgasms debating about which of their countries deserves the European leadership.
I'm going on vacations :)) I've got much to work.
Hang in there Pedro!
A great saying:
"If you listen overmuch to barking dogs, you will go deaf and learn nothing."
Viva Portugal!
"I tried my best to express my opinion on what Europe should be,..."
And no body liked your ideas??? Stop whining, you s*ssy. Typical South European. Big on attitude and pride, but as soon as the heat is on the go into hiding . Heim zur Mama, a bisserl ausheulen ....
Pedrolx, Joe Milovan, Francsisco Lebre
An article that I think you should read urgently: ""Mario Monti's exit is the only way to save Italy"
Only 30% Italians think the € "has been a good thing". The article addresses how the natural strengths of Italy have been stunted and poisoned by the EMU disease, and more or less tells/asks them what they're waiting for. (Not only Italy obviously)i.e. leave EMU asap.
Everyone and everything has been stunted and poisoned. The word tasered comes to mind.
hey, it seems that the Nobel price is disrupting
Of course Italy is perfectly able to live without EMU. I just wonder how long it will be before Italians realize this.
The reason why no one seems to get Germany to budge is few, VERY few, people seem to recognize the German game for what it is.
Should they be able to manage the crisis through as they see fit, ultimately the Germans will be in a position to "buy" control of most of Europe and establish the long-held dream of a German "led" European Empire. Aside from the border redrawing, the control and direction most Empires of history had over the territory they controlled was far from absolute, British India being a good example. Oftentimes they depended on this or that strong local subordinate to do as they instructed, people like Laval, Quisling or, today, Monti, for example. No, I am not comparing the first two with Monti. I am trying to show a slow repetition of unchanging German policy in the making once more.
Believing this to be 'unimaginable' is refusing to see how tempting "being in control" is for Germany. And no, again, I am not talking about ordinary German people, who indeed have no wish to control anyone, but of the 'planners', the 'deciders', the busybodies, the Theomorphs, the La Viritys who believe unashamedly that Germany knows best. After all, have they not expressed the belief over the past 150 years 'ad nauseam' that they have a European mission to unite Europeans? ( On whose authority no-one has yet explained) For Germany however this can't be expressed, or even acknowledged, due to WW2. Who else in Europe ,or anywhere, shares this strange behavior with Germany? Nobody.
Instead they justify their actions with virtually all the same reasons they justified their claims to being the natural leader of Europe, albeit without the "empire" part ever being expressed. In its stead is a call for greater 'unity' at all levels and a threat of 'war' from Merkel if the Euro/Europe fail. A unity that were it come to pass would have strings reaching always back to Berlin with the token redirect through Brussels.
We've already had a taste of this in the form of German legislatures reviewing the budgets of other European nations to ensure they conform to German demands, appointing foreign PMs ….etc.
Yet as obvious as this is as a characteristic of an Empire, no one seems to be able to or dare to call it what it is.
"no one seems to be able to or dare to call it what it is."
Ah, but they do, even on this very blog in polite, reasoned, historical terms. And promptly get deleted.
One such poster, sadly missed, has given up on the task.
First of all, it was not Berlusconi who reformed pensions in the 90s - it was Romano Prodi.
Secondly, yes we are grumbling about Germany's Euro (and we wouldn't mind if the ECB were in Paris instead of Frankfurt) but if we had a referendum tomorrow, Euro-membership would win.
Thirdly - yes, we know we are the country that would probably benefit the most from exiting the Euro. But that begs the point: The EEC was formed by the Treaty of ROME, 1957. Not the Treaty of London, Paris or Bonn. WE ARE THE GUARDIANS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION, INCLUDING MONETARY INTEGRATION, not the Germans, whatever they think.
I encourage you to re-think your anti-EU positions. I agree this is not a particularly propitious moment in history. But we will survive this crisis - and grow stronger.
@ Milovan/Joe:
1. Being the keeper of a treaty (physical object) doesn't make you it's "guardian" - more of an "archivist", rather.
2. Besides, the 1958 treaties (pl.) you are charged with dusting off on a regular basis aren't the Treaty on European Union presently in effect (Treaty of Lisbon, 2009); they also do not contain provisions on monetary union.
From the "Mario Monti's resignation" thread.
A rather opinionated tub-thumper for a "united Europe" suffering from a pro-EMU myopia (although probably more "one-eyed" than "myopic") has it thus:
"But I agree that Europe in general will be hard pressed to defend its wealth against Asian competitors. THAT should be the focus of the European debate, not transfers. If there's no income generated, there's isn't much to redistribute, either.
"Opting out of global competetition" is not an answer, I'm afraid.""
Similarly Pumpernickel has just added tragi-comically "I maintain that the GIPS even in their present depressed state are winners compared to what they would be in the absence of the EZ ..."
They stubbornly refuse to question the sadism of an unnatural or synthetic single currency where it does not belong, as if a return to a national currency were to even "Opt out of global competetition".
I replied to that other poster:
"There will probably be no choice (i.e. certain nations are knocked out of the global market because of EMU – Italy being an example) as a result of EMU.
Take Germany as another example: the €-straitjacket has scuppered one market for German goods in Europe (until now its main market) after the other, with the effects gathering monentum. The other €Z producers such as Italy and France are already also crippled by an unsuitable currency for their exports globally.
It is highlighting the truth yet again, the truth so unpalatable to all eurobot political ideologists:
that European nations have always been more successful on the global stage as individual sovereign nations with sovereign currencies. This is particularly true of Italy with its energetic exporting tradition (until recently).
What we are witnessing in Europe is it's a cyclical downturn in global significance associated with every other attempt to "unify" the continent."
This is what is happening and for some it is indeed an 'unpalatable' truth.
MilovanDjilas/Joe Solaris in reply to Birtnick Dec 12th, 00:27
"PEW Research Center. European Unity on the rocks".
"Among the five euro area nations surveyed, a median of only 37% believes having the euro as their currency has been a good thing. This includes just 30% of the Italians and 31% of the French. At the same time, the three non-euro zone countries surveyed are quite happy they have kept their own currencies, including nearly three-quarters of the British (73%)."
"Moreover, as public criticism of European unity grows, faith in its benefits and institutions erodes. Since 2009, belief that European economic integration, the raison d'être of the European Union, has weakened their national economy has grown by 22 percentage points in the Czech Republic, 20 points in Italy, and 18 points in Spain. And, since 2007, the favorability of the European Union as an organization has fallen 20 points in Spain and the Czech Republic, 19 points in Italy and 14 points in Poland".
1) Such disrespect for the role of archivist - tsk, tsk. Clearly not a graduate of Germany's famous Monumenta...
2) Lisbon Treaty of 2009:
pg. 175, "Final Provisions":
Article 6:
1. This Treaty shall be ratified by the High Contracting Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements. The instruments of ratification shall be deposited with the Government of the Italian Republic.
Article 7:
This Treaty, referred to as the Treaty of Lisbon, drawn up in a single original in the Bulgarian, Czech, Danish, Dutch, English, Estonian, Finnish, French, German, Greek, Hungarian, Irish, Italian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Maltese, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Slovak, Slovenian, Spanish and Swedish languages, the texts in each of these languages being equally authentic, shall be deposited in the archives of the Government of the Italian Republic, which will transmit a certified copy to each of the governments of the other signatory States.
All the European Treaties are deposited in their original copy with the Republic of Italy - not just the Treaty of Rome.
I do not recognise the validity either of the Pew Research Centre (a foreign research centre wishes to tell ME what MY FELLOW CITIZENS think?) or of the methodology of their survey.
"Yet as obvious as this is as a characteristic of an Empire, no one seems to be able to or dare to call it what it is."
Just pure envy and hate towards Germany. The perfidious Albion raising his ugly head again.
French Empire OK, British Empire OK, US Empire OK
German Empire NOT OK, might be bad for the World.
Uh, Fear them ... They are evil incarnate ....
But plainly you are just trying to scapegoat Germany for your own failures (and many there are).
"The reason why no one seems to get Germany to budge is few, VERY few," "Few" meaning just one: Money
Simply, you can not always bite the hand that feeds you.
Self-preservation makes this a necessity.
And bottom line is, there could be worth happening to Europe than being a "German Empire". But I guess you prefer Europe being a Chinese lackey....
Was Italy invited to the recent Franco-German negotiations on the Banking Union? I guess not. So much for "GUARDIAN". "ARCHIVIST" it is. Everyone gets the role/ responsibility he is deemed fit to fulfill.
" Milovan/Joe:
Hm. I stand corrected. –
So in the spirit of our rare agreement, let me suggest that ...
... I will henceforth acknowledge that the Italian government is the KEEPER (archivist) of the Treaties (as physical objects), and will not deny that such duty is an honor;-) – and ...
... you might acknowledge that the GUARDIAN of the Treaties (of the letter of the law) is the European Commission, as the Treaty on European Union wants:
Article 17, 1:
"The Commission shall promote the general interest of the Union and take appropriate initiatives to that end. It shall ensure the application of the Treaties, and of measures adopted by the institutions pursuant to them. (...)"
La výritý
Let me move up my reply to your last address from the "rabbit hole" below to the top of the blog for convenience:
Yes, wages are highest in Germany for skilled labour in e.g. the car and machine tool manufacturing industry where there is even a scarcity of skilled labour and good opportunities exist for skilled workers from surrounding countries. A blessing for Germany, a curse for the periphery. I am not disputing this part of the economy, which is flourishing at present YET also has suffered and will suffer again from "Kurzarbeit" (shortened working hours), when recession hits.
I am referring to professionals in other parts of the German economy, e.g. "Pharmaberater", people who are visiting hospitals and doctors promoting the drugs manufactured by their company or secretaries losing their jobs or specialists servicing machinery in factories, sales people selling furniture, all part of the middle classes, all people I know as friends or acquaintances, all having become unemployed and then "hidden" in some re-education program, totally useless and making somebody "connected" to the Jobcenter Mafia some money or making the scum which are "Leiharbeitsfirmen", the modern equivalent of white slavery, some blood money on the back of such professionals not being able to work for decent money any longer. I am referring to what Helmut Schmidt calls "Raubtierkapitalismus" (jungle capitalism), the curse that has befallen us since more than 20 years now, long before the Euro was introduced and which is a "cultural" thing.
Whilst before the typical German large company was like Henkel and Lufthansa, model employers with ethical values, most of the Mittelstand also answering to this type even today, we have seen more and more erosion of this culture taking place, the raiders coming in with easy money, funny money, printed funny money in search of companies financially weak as a result of maintaining their culture of treating people decently in difficult times, ripe for the plucking. To be bought with such easy money, then parcelled up and sold to the highest bidder. Leichenfledderer, hedge funds specializing in these vulture activities destroying the lives of millions now in Minijobs. That's what I am talking about.
Having destroyed the US of A and even more so the UK from within, the same "culture" has taken hold also of Europe, driven by greed, knowing no loyalties except to themselves, moving jobs to where the slaves will still do it for a handful of rice, for a dollar a day, using child labour, poisoning their surrounding nature. Some here will call them "the hunters weeding out the "waidwund" game keeping nature in balance, the admirers of Ayn Rand. My emotional side as an ex entrepreneur also often succumbs to this temptation and yet, when looking at it from a more Christian perspective, I weep for the humanity being destroyed in the process. That's what I am talking about.
Be prepared for a land slide victory by the populists in Germany in September 2013, the Steinbrücks & Co, simply because the present lot of mediocrities is unable to communicate the truth to the German electorate, the truth presently only uttered by Die Linke and gradually now taken up by the SPD. Merkel & Co. are too stupid, too mediocre to realize that sometimes the truth, as unpalatable as it might me, must be told. The German masses are not as stupid as they think they are and will respond to the ones who are now gradually telling them the truth. There is no risk involved for them. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain. A landslide it will be for the Socialists and, this time, I might even vote for them for lack of an alternative although I will be on the "receiving" end of socialist "blessings", will be made to suffer but, as Merkel likes to say "there is no alternative" unless she mends her ways radically and calls the situation of the EZ what it is today: an unholy mess and starts doing something about it before Berlusconi is re-elected and together with the disaster, which is Monsieur Ollande, puts the final daggers into the European project.
And what is the truth? …. Control the banks or the banks will control you and in the latter case we will be ruled by oligarchs not just in China and Russia but all over the planet. Cut off their b**** and hang them from the lanterns, if they don't listen.
Ah ça ira, ça ira, ça ira, mettons les banquiers à les lanternes
Ah ça ira, ça ira, ça ira, les petits banquiers on les aura
oh yes, vive Berlu, at least he is funny !
hmm you're describing what Mittal is aiming at in France, destroying the enterprises and the labour class
" A landslide it will be for the Socialists"
In what universe?
Sure it will be ....when Hell(as) freezes over!
This winter, no heating fuel. No wood to burn either. I'm cold, so cold. Hon, flip the steaks in the oven, before they burn...laughs
@ Josh_US Lux
Thanks for your reply
The question about the name is not so important. I do not mind to use my real name and actually I do not criticize and I respect the choice of those who prefer to use a nick or a code or whatever name they want.
Names are not a problem. The question I put myself today is if any debate here about European issues is useful in anyway. After some month's I finally learn here, in this forum, that "European People" is something that does not exist and therefore there is nothing to discuss here in a constructive way.
We (or should I say YOU) European will never learn. After many centuries of wars and rivalries between YOU, after millions of deaths and misery, you keep the same level of self-centered problem solving. Keep the same path of pointing fingers and finding culprits among your neighbors and Europe Union will break down.
All the achievements of 66 years of peace will vanish in months and war, yes war, will stop being the "impossible path" in a matter of a few years/decades.
So be careful:
- The ones who are now thinking that they can sustain for ever its economic miracle when the rest of Europe, which absorbs 70% of its exports is in depression;
- The ones that continue amassing billions from the low interests when the rest of Europe goes down;
- The ones who have automakers borrowing at 1,5% competing with their partners who have automakers borrowing at 7,5%
- The ones playing bully amongst partners and simultaneously pretending they want the partnership to stay alive;
There was a time when I thought the European Union could be a great achievement for all Europeans but now, after reading some comments in this forum and seeing the arguments and ethnic or regional prejudices of some of you, I'm not sure if that is possible.
Anyway Europe is a very recent concept for us Portuguese. For more than 850 years of History with the same frontiers, we looked at the oposite way, to the Atlantic Ocean and the rest of the world and never cared nor participated in any of YOUR wars in Europe.
Therefore, no matter what will be the future of the European Union, we will be here, in this beautiful little corner of Iberia, far away from your wars, and again facing the sea and probably dealing and trading with our old and more reliable friends and partners.
Maybe this crisis is what we need to confirm that Europe is not our beach.
Unlike you and Theomorphe I was never a believer in a « European nation » knowing instinctively that such a construct is anti the nature of modern men, CroMagnon, that's why he survived whilst the Neanderthalers, possibly true "Europeans" perished. Nature is cruel and all about survival in tribes. Christianity and Islam, which tried to unite the tribes around one central ideology all failed due to human nature, which is all about competition, survival of the fittest. We may not like this very much but it is a fact.
I am, however, a passionate believer in European Union. A union of the tribes all in it for purely selfish reasons, realizing that there is strength in numbers and their economic interests best served in a Free Open Market with One Currency and Free Movement of Labour. A union of equals all willing to pool their talents and economic strength in good faith and all paying their own way, all pulling their weight, none wishing to take undue advantage of the others. None being parasites in the midst of a hospitable surrounding. Taking advantage of the favourable lending terms existing in such a large entity of industrious nations in order to further its own industry NOT own consumption not based on such industry. If found out to be a parasite, such a nation should be excluded by the rest with no tears shed for their departure. All else is romantic illusion, socialist BS.
This does not preclude an element of proactive investment in the weaker areas of the One Market with the aim to bring it up to the level of the centre in time. Also a purely selfish undertaking, as it benefits both, the periphery and the center.
We all know what went wrong: The periphery taking advantage of easy credit not to invest in its industry to bring it up but granting itself the same wages, pensions and life styles as the more industrious core only to find itself in dept up to their eyeballs.
We differ about the remedy:
The ones want to throw more money at the problem, hoping that the periphery will finally see the errors of their ways and mend them. No pain, only gain.
The others want to inflict pain, as they do not believe that the periphery is capable to mend their ways otherwise. No pain, no gain.
Human nature seems to indicate the second remedy as the only feasible solution. I agree with this one.
As to your accusation of Germany benefiting from the miseries of the periphery I direct you to my recent postings about the REAL situation in Germany. We may not make a song and dance about it, as we should, but we sure are suffering and have been for some time longer than you lot. So if you have to point fingers, point them at yourself, Francisco.
"We may not make a song and dance about it, as we should, but we sure are suffering and have been for some time longer than you lot."
With all due respect, I seriously doubt that. I have been often to Germany you know.
We are currently losing half of our shops in the city - closing down, more or less permanently.
We are paying exaggerated amounts of interest on our sovereign debt, yet Germans seem to defend the ratings agencies and feel the "pressure" is good to prod "reform" as if any reforms can be implemented under the weight of such costs. Germany pays next to nothing. Interest rates on German debt were never so low before the Euro.
Unemployment is definitely rising in southern Europe (and France, and other central or northern European countries) but not in Germany. And I repeat, the situation with mini-jobs is universal - we all experience it.
German labourers and office staff are not waiting months to collect their wages as many in Greece, Spain and most independent professionals/suppliers in Italy are. (I do not have information about Portugal in this respect.) This weekend's news that Wuerth is suspending all shipments of nuts and bolts to its 60,000 customers in Italy due to general and universal problems of late payment, surprises nobody here. Reinhold Wuerth says that from now on he will only ship to those Italians paying up their back invoices (and making cash purchases for the future?) You know how I have criticised Germans, but I have only sympathy for his decision. I can understand the frustration.
Germany is not facing the suppression of historic counties (some 36 of our 109 Provinces, or Counties, are being suppressed.)
Unless I am mistaken (possibly) Germans do not face fines of 5000 euros for driving over the speed limit. Nor are German companies facing fines in the millions of euros against small family-run companies who make a few mistakes on their invoices (not about money, about commas or info here and there).
Germans also receive services for their tax money. Italians have the Vatican, which has always blocked the development, for example, of Day-Care centres for children - because "the State should not be in competition with the family" thus condemning grandmothers at 65 and 70 to continue having to raise children when they would prefer to enjoy their retirement.
And finally, Germans do not have the Vatican within their country, which is constantly manoeuvering politics behind the scenes, rendering observance of the popular vote a purely optional function. In this period, we are preparing for elections. Pier Luigi Bersani is sure to win - Berlusconi is unpresentable and the Centre is too small electorally-speaking. Bersani was a very successful Minister of the Economy (and before that, Transportation/Navigation Minister) under Romano Prodi. He has long experience in politics and local administration, being the former President of Emilia-Romagna (Bologna). He is a solid candidate, even if a bit unexciting.
Yet, the Vatican is already manoeuvering to create new political formations "in the Centre". They cannot win, but the point would be to deny Bersani an outright majority during elections - yes, in order to oblige him to make compromises and pacts with Church-based political forces in order to form a government: that is acceptable in the game of politics. But most importantly, they are already planning with this game to provoke the fall of his government after two years, around the halfway-point of his mandate. So the Vatican is already plotting to prevent a stable government throughout the next 5-year parliament.
I do not see Germany as having to withstand this Nietzschean Dwarf on its back.
Do not be too hard on the Church. Yesterday we asked out way to San Giovanni et Paolo and it just so happened that the gentleman we asked was the curé of the parish of the 12 Apostles and he took us all the way to the place, walking with us for 10 minutes and telling us about the history of Venice. What a selfless task.
Later when asking another gentleman the way to the Questura of my friend Commisario Brunetti another selfless Venetian took us there near San Lorenzo and explained all about Dona Leon who, no doubt, we will run into today, as she is practically a neighbour.
Such kindness would not happen anywhere in Germany, except, perhaps, in some villages.
Do not hold it against us that we do not pay high interest on our bonds. It is not our fault.
@ Miloovan/Joe, Pumpernickel, Francisco:
I replied to your posts at the top of the page, trying to avoid these rabbit holes whenever I can;-)!
Glad to hear you enjoyed yourself!
BTW, Ratzinger nominated the current Archbishop of Venice last year - Patriarch Francesco Moraglia of Genoa.
I checked the history books. Never before in recorded history has Venice had a Genoan as its archbishop.
GENOA WINS AGAIN! (Thanks to Ratzinger...)
It is really a pity that Greece does not strive more to be like the Irish.
Obviously it is easier to complain and burn flags than to try hard to get it over with reforms.
It benefited the Irish and they are on the road to recovery if one can believe the news these day. Hopefully JFDI will be soon added to the Greek language.
Maybe it is really time for the Greeks to change their attitude once and for all. And I guess the rest of Europe will happily help them again (once they know that their flags are no longer burnt instead of a "Thank You").
Apples and oranges. Terrible comparison. Sound ECB monetary policy cannot replace a good attitude, or a bubbly personality for that matter either. This is TE. You're new? Fantastic, start by showing us you know the first thing about global monetary policy, and the role of the markets in betting against economic systems that are doomed from their inception to fail. Who profited? Who lost? How did the money change hands and why? Attitude? Are you kidding me. Come to New York, I'll show you attitude. "Oh, my virgin ears." Get real quick will you.
Modern Greece is on her way back from the abyss. Anyone who knows Greece, knows poverty has always kept Greeks on the precipice.
Step by step, and never mind the minutia. Find a way to make the debt manageable and Greeks will take care of the rest. As for why it's not. We're dealing with two economies here. The post Sub-prime mortgage meltdown, the new normal, and the pre Sub-prime mortgage meltdown economy, which produced a whole lot of global liquidity. America did it right, and bailed out Germany as well. Now Greece, the not unimportant laggard, must be set right too.
"No cut them loose, Greece lied."
Tell it to your nuns who fondle each other in the dark my foolish children. Greek Priests marry and start families. You leave your foxes in the hen house and you wonder who ate the chickens, and then you propose to teach the Greeks, what exactly? How you willingly leave your children in the hands of pedophiles. Save those speeches for those who are hard of hearing, and ask them to nod obediently when your lips stop moving. No laughing matter.
It's a good thing we didn't leave. We still have much to teach you. Attitude, humility, Screw that. I'll be humble when I'm wrong, which is never..laughs
Ireland is a taxes heaven for enterprises
Clarification: No offense meant to anyone's particular religious sensibilities here. I just think it is most unworkable to expect any adult to take a life long oath of celibacy. Why not allow the clergy to marry and have families like the Greek Orthodox Church does. By not doing so, I fear some churches are attracting the wrong element, meaning pedophiles. Sexual relations between two consenting adults should not be discouraged. It's impractical to expect anyone to take a life long oath of celibacy. It solicits abhorrent behavior.
Yes exactly Marie. Ireland is business friendly. Also, we had and continue to have many prominent Irish American politicians here in the US, who have done for Ireland, what will need to be done for Greece.
The British get it. They cannot afford to have a failed nation on their doorstep. The Germans don't. They think they live in a bubble. America has always come to Germany's rescue. Will Germany come to Europe's?
No, Germany will site the terms of the Agreement: "You signed here, therefore you must all do without." America has to blackmail Germany to act. So, Germany will act, but ever so slowly.
So glad to be an American. I see all I need to see from here, objectively, no axe to grind.
"America has always come to Germany's rescue"
When was that exactly? Referring to WW1/WW2?
As far as I know the US was always on the other
side of the trench.
But potentially I just need your glasses (or the stuff you seem to "inhale") to see the truth ....
Sinnlos, Dear Sinnlos, How soon we forget, and how quickly Germans gravitate towards self serving arrogance, but only as soon as it becomes safe for them to do so of course. An undesirable character flaw most certainly, a cultural inferiority complex predisposition perhaps, one that must be worked upon diligently.
Now, remember Sinnlos, without America's consumption and Global Financial Infrastructure, the German, Japanese, and Chinese manufacturing juggernauts are nothing but a footnote in post WWII history, and I caution you to keep Germany's diminished historical role in mind, in your ill tempered search for a more feasible solution for the economies of the periphery.
Everyone has a role to play in this global economy our American
and British masters created Sinnlos. It will take Western financial ingenuity once again to save the European periphery, something I fear too much of the misinformed German electorate, for whatever reason, is incapable of comprehending.
Not to worry Dear Sinnlos, your politicians have already stopped listening to that ill informed portion of the German electorate, in order to build a stronger more unified European currency union of course. Now, of course we must acknowledge that it is late in coming, but so much better late then never, and never was never really an option, would you not agree Sinnolos?
Well, never mind, it's more of a rhetorical question. In actuality this all may be too much for you to comprehend. Perhaps it is difficult for you to see the forest from the trees from your vantage point, a product of so much German politician's propaganda
Unbeknownst to your untrained economic eye however, and yet curiously beneath your very nose, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, and a more, shall we say, American Monetary Infrastructure, are being implemented as we speak.
It will take time of course, but from my advantageous vantage point here in the USA, I have plenty of time to wait for the most desirable end result, which will be of course, a stronger more unified Europe, but unfortunately, a more diminished role for the German electorate.
Please, Please, gimme some of the stuff you inhale....
Welcome back SinnFrei. Sing us another song, will you? Christmas is upon us and I'm in the mood for a melody.
Where's your friend Hates the Germans? Tell him to come back. Zorbas didn't meant to offend his sensibilities. I just tease a little rough is all.
And where's that shyster attorney la vy? Last, if I recall correctly, he was being carted away in a Straight Jacket...laughs
What is it about Christmas and Oktoberfest? It's the two times a year when you Germans act half way normal.
Boy that Arnold Schwarzenegger really screwed up big time, didn't he? Fathered a son with the Spanish maid no less...laughs
Talk about an idiot, eh SinnFrei? Back to taking out the B movie Hollywood garbage for Arnie...laughs
The moron tried to stick it to a Kennedy, with the maid no less! Fathered a child with her. HA! What a buffoon!!!
I saw him on the News trying to explain his stupidity to an investigative reporter. She asked him, "do you spend time with the mother and the boy, now that you're estranged from your wife?"
Yes please do tell Arnie, do you spend time with the mother and the boy that destroyed your future and your family? Why not? After all, he is your son...laughs
Poor sap, how stupid of him to think that he could get away with that sort of thing here in America. I hear the maid and his ex-wife have become the best of friends now that Arnie's out of the way, eh SinnFrei...laughs
Oh, I better stop SinnFrei, I'm laughing so hard, I think of might of cracked a rib or something. Typical German/Austrian tragedy. Couldn't keep his hands off of the fat Spanish maid...laughs
We're on our way! Geo-strategical trumps everything. If and when you travel, use those eyes to see.
Greece is obviously on someone's Christmas list, for good reason too. After all, you're all on America's Christmas list. Without the US there's nothing.
Who here wants to step forward and tell us all how home economics and global macroeconomics are so much alike? That Germany, Japan, and China, would of stood a snowball's chance in hell of prospering like they did in a vacuum without America? Any blinkered, fairy dust throwing wordsmiths out there...laughs
"Who here wants to step forward and tell us all how home economics and global macroeconomics are so much alike? That Germany, Japan, and China, would of stood a snowball's chance in hell of prospering like they did in a vacuum without America? Any blinkered, fairy dust throwing wordsmiths out there..."
Being new to this blog, I really would like to understand what you try to tell the world.
Please be so kind to translate your text into something normal people can understand. Many thanks in advance.
I appreciate your praise . . . but it's dumb and false, nevertheless.
The correct question which should be asked by an 'intelligent' patriotic American is: What will happen to the American economy when it loses the control over the only global trade- and reserve currency there is? ... Without the possibility to expand money supply (and thus its own 'assets') at will, onto a global market which swallows those fiat dollars like 'the thirsting' the dew from the morning leaf, because there is - currently - no alternative??
If we think that China and the other giants 'knocking' at the global power door will allow this to happen much longer . . . then we are really as dumb as some Asians are picturing us already!
Don't thank me in advance for anything. Your new to the blog? How wonderful. Now, either add a meaningful thought of your own, or start a new thread, accordingly. As for normalcy, I tend to be very suspicious of anyone who claim to reserve it for themselves.
Who opened up China la vy, and where MUST THEY invest their trade surpluses? Are their not terms to their being granted most favorable trading partner status by the US?
As for what an arrogant Asian might assume, that is of little concern to me. To those Asians who are respectful of our culture, and the opportunity it has afforded them to better themselves and their nation, I say "Good for you".
As for that arrogant piece of Chinese garbage who got that British business man drunk, and then proceeded to pour poison down his throat. You just watch what happens to her in the Chinese penal system.
PS - Perhaps she can file a human rights complaint with Amnesty International...laughs
Oh, wouldn't you just love to be a fly on the wall to see what the guards do to her...laughs
PS - Sorry Humpty, I couldn't help myself. I know, I know, I should be more like the Irish. Should the Irish also be more like the British? I'm all ears. Would love to hear your unbiased thoughts on the matter.
Careful now Humpty. You set your own trap, and you're about ready to step in it. Or better yet, wait a bit. La vy's still polishing that turd...laughs
The problem of many of you Greeks seem to be, to look steadily 2600 years in the past, to squander the future away today, and to have absolutely no foresight in tomorrow.
You've come undone again la vy. Toothpick, left eye...laughs
Germany exports to EZ are shrinking, but also to extra Europe countries, China economy is stalmating, if not in recession
Yep, its all interconnected. Production needs consumption. La vy fails to realize it takes two hands to clap. Once again, the Chinese apple cart is pushing the Western workhorse, and Germany is the global leader you see, because they they have beautiful architecture and they keep their streets spotless.
He is confusing his own sensibilities, his likes and dislikes with how the world truly works. It's the ripple effect, like dropping a stone in a pond. It was dropped here in the US with the Sub-prime mortgage crisis, and you want to know something Marie, I knew it was coming.
They created a lot of liquidity and helped to build China from the ground up, these, shall we call them Masons, for lack of a better term, but like all good things, they come to an end.
Doesn't mean they shouldn't have done it. Besides, we bailed out the banks here on day one. It's paper money. Only an idiot would think to tax the poor to bail out the banks. Not because it's wrong. BECAUSE IT DOESN'T WORK!!!
No use wasting precious economic time on strategies that DO NOT WORK!!!
the big crash, 21 december, (some think so) or next year !
Oh, I hope not Marie. I've had as many crashes in this lifetime as I think I can handle. Use to work in the World Financial Center here in New York, right across from the Twin Towers.
Our Y2K came late, in the form of the Sub-Prime mortgage meltdown, but of course before that, that idiot pornography hiding, hashish head Saudi decided he didn't like America, and so many innocent hard working people died for nothing.
Did you see Obama's face, leaning forward in his chair in anticipation, when they got him. Obama deserved a second term for that alone. That cowardly rich Saudi deserved to die a thousand deaths for what he did.
As you can see, I won't even dignify him by mentioning his name. First they marginalized him and then they killed him. His name stricken from the history books, unwept, unsung. Very smart tactic indeed.
The mods are "encouraging" me to repost the following comment, which I shall gladly comply with:
@ FrancisoLebre:
In April 2011, Portugals' government declared that it was no longer able to afford to pay the interests demanded by the markets on new loans (at the time, they were at 7 % for a 10-yr bond - and thus at a very low historical level; they are at 15 % now).
THAT IS A DEFAULT SCENARIO - and that's why the Portuguese credit rating crashed to "junk" more or less overnight. (A fully deserved downgrade, btw.)
Since Mai 2011, Portugal is kept alive with EFSF emergency loans. You will only leave this de facto default once you'll be able to fully refinance yourselves on the markets again.
Be glad you have partners in the euro zone who help your country even if some of you – such as yourself – clearly lack the deceny to thank them for it and instead insult your emergency assistants.
Q1: If, for any unknown reason, the Rumor-Spreading Agencies downgrade Germany to "junk" , implying his interest rates to increase, more or less overnight, for instance 10% , is Germany able to pay those interests ?
Q2: If the european crisis ends is Germany able to refinance his debt with the actual interest rates of 1% ( in last August they were negative) ?
Q3 Is it false that Germany, because of this current crisis, is profiting huge amounts and saving billions, almost not having to pay interests to refinance his huge debt?
Q4: Try to write tree lines justifing the interest for Germany to end the european crisis and therefor to increase his interest rates.
With friends like that who needs enemies?
@ Francisco or whatever your real name is:
I know Portugal too well to believe that yours is a nation of economic illiterates, but that's certainly the impression people get when reading your or Pedro's posts - who account for 2/3 of the Portuguese input in this blog.
Here are my answers.
A 1: Hypothetical question. Unlike Portugal, Germany didn't de facto declare default (= inability to pay). We'll see what happens if and when it does. The downgrade of Portugal to "junk" was triggered by Portugal's finance minister's declaration and hence only logical.
A 2: No idea. Germany has been doing fine paying whatever the markets demanded so far, even when financing German integration (in the 1990s - and hence at a time when the median interest on its bonds was about 6-9 %, mind you).
A 3: Yes, that is false. Germany has already lost 30 billion in Greece alone (bailed-out German banks whose Greek investments flopped), and is sponsoring Greece with an additional 2.7 billion this fiscal year alone. And that's only the beginning.
A 4: High interest is not the source of the Euro crisis - Portugal paid never less than right now. The structural lack of competitiveness of third-rate economies such as Greece's and Portugal's stuck in currency with some of the world's most competitive countries is.
@ Francisco:
"With friends like that who needs enemies?"
I frankly don't think that citizens of a country whose main "achievement" since joining the EU has been to fall at its euro zone partners' feet after nearly 30 yrs of non-stop EU subsidies, and which has managed to use those said subsidies so poorly as to even fall behind half of ex-commie Europe are in a position to complain about what they perceive as lack of solidarity of their european peers.
I dont think yours is majority opinion in Portugal, but if it was: Why don't you leave the euro and the EU and try your luck on your own if all these billions and billions of non-stop aid aren't good enough?
@ Josh_US Lux
"Francisco or whatever your real name is:"
"I know Portugal too well to believe that yours is a nation of economic illiterates, but that's certainly the impression people get when reading your or Pedro's posts - who account for 2/3 of the Portuguese input in this blog."
Francisco is in fact my real name. I don't like to hide behind code or nick names like yours.
So, Josh_US Lux, you have to reborn again, preferably in a country with less ethnic prejudices, before claiming to know Portugal better than a Portuguese does.
Despite I can see you know how to use rational numbers do not confuse that ability of yours with "economic literacy", which is something you cannot be proud of, mainly after reading your wrong answers to the following four simple questions:
Q1: If, for any unknown reason, the Rumor-Spreading Agencies downgrade Germany to "junk", implying his interest rates to increase, more or less overnight, for instance 10%, is Germany able to pay those interests?
Q2: If the European crisis ends, is Germany able to refinance his debt with the actual interest rates of 1% (in last August they were negative)?
Q3 Is it false that Germany, because of this current crisis, is profiting huge amounts and saving billions, almost not having to pay interests to refinance his huge debt?
Q4: Try to write tree lines justifying the interest for Germany to end the European crisis and therefore to increase his interest rates.
Commenting your answers, one by one:
"A 1: Hypothetical question. Unlike Portugal, Germany didn't de facto declare default (= inability to pay). We'll see what happens if and when it does. The downgrade of Portugal to "junk" was triggered by Portugal's finance minister's declaration and hence only logical."
You don't answer the question: You just say that you will see what happens if and when it happens." However, the correct answer is only a big " NO !". Germany would be in default and could not pay an interest rate of 10 to 15%.
Albrecht Ritschl, undoubtedly a literate GERMAN PROFESSOR of economic history at the London School of Economics which also taught at the University Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona, the University of Zürich and also at the Berlin's Humboldt University says:
'Germany Was Biggest Debt Transgressor of 20th Century'
Just a note to inform you that your sources are wrong: The downgrade of Portugal to "junk" was NOT triggered by any Portugal's finance minister's declaration, as you said. It started long before, when the first downgrade to Greece was announced by the Rumor-Spreading Agencies.
"A 2: No idea. (...)."
The right answer is only: NO, without the Euro crisis, Germany could not refinance is huge debt with interest rates of 1% or less. These incredible low rates (sometime negatives) are only possible with the present crisis in other European countries.
"A 3: Yes, that is false. Germany has already lost 30 billion in Greece alone (bailed-out German banks whose Greek investments flopped), and is sponsoring Greece with an additional 2.7 billion this fiscal year alone (...)"
Josh, this question was an easy one but your answer is completely wrong.
You should have studied the following comments of the German economic literate, the economist Jens Boysen-Hogrefe of Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy" which present some numbers:
"Germany saves about €10 billion ($12.5 billion) this year alone thanks to the low interest rates,
Comparing what Germany paid in yields since 2009 with the period from 1999 to 2008 — when it paid much higher interest rates, the German central government will save some €68 billion through 2022 on the debt it has auctioned off since 2009.
The figure will soon be in the three digit range," he said.
If the debt issued by state governments and municipalities are also added into the equation, Germany's savings through the low interest rates could be about 50 percent higher still, resulting in a figure already well above the threshold of €100 billion through 2022, he added.
A 4: High interest is not the source of the Euro crisis - Portugal paid never less than right now. The structural lack of competitiveness of third-rate economies such as Greece's and Portugal's stuck in currency with some of the world's most competitive countries is.
Again, this is not the correct answer. The correct answer was implicit in the first three answers:
Germany is profiting with the actual situation and while the crisis continue Germany will keep saving billions
For Germany, the concept of European Union seems to be the light version of another German "Union" concept, tried some decades ago by an Austrian illiterate little man. Dont need to say who.
@ Francisco Lebre:
This sub-thread is getting too long (hate those rabbit holes!). I'll reply at the top of the page.
FranciscoLebre, you asked several valid questions, addressed at Josh. May I butt in?
I was doing business in Germany over a longer period, off and on.
Therefore I know the German 'way of thinking', the fabric of their society and their 'collective acting' pretty well.
If this happens what you exemplified as a theoretical construct, then the country would "discuss" the possibilities in a lengthy public, democratic debate, as done throughout its postwar history. At the end they would decide concordantly for the 'optimal' (as seen FOR the country) solution of their common problem … and they'd stick to it, unless new facts arrive.
Without such prudent approach, the country couldn't have arisen phoenix-like from the ashes of the war and it couldn't have managed the reunification after the 1990 as (relatively) smoothly as it did.
I'm not familiar with the specific situation in Portugal, but the statistics show us that the Portuguese people increased their household savings enormously after the crisis started in 2009 – parallel to this phenomenon the readiness to buy Portugal's own government bonds vanished.
As a consequence of this phenomenon the interest rates offered by your government climbed as an 'incentive' for potential bond buyers. This policy brought risk investors into Portugal's bond scene, investors which seek much higher returns than the prudent lender or 'normal saver'. - A vicious circle began.
My guess is that the German political "Consent System" would have never allowed that to happen in the first place. They would have changed their domestic policies in accordance to the new situation.
This is why your questions are extremely hypothetical; meaning: in the sense of 'unrealistic'.
Germany's interest rate is currently low mainly because German and other northern investors are 'parking' their billions of assets at home, monies which were available before on the interbank (*) lending market to Portugal and other peripherals. This came on top of the phenomenon that the monies of peripheral savers are NOT invested anymore in their own government's bonds. [* "interbank" is a lending and borrowing market in which EU banks extend loans to one another for specified terms].
After being accused of having 'boosted' the borrowing extravaganzas of the periphery with cheap money, 'Northern' investors are now holding their assets at home or are investing in markets where they aren't accused of being "ruthless lenders".
This is a very normal reaction to the unfounded claims made by Greek and other peripheral politicians, since no one can expect to receive investments from lenders who are labeled as being 'unethical' by the very same borrowers who asked -earlier and now- for 'cheap money' in the first place. Hypocrisy is punished ... for good reason.
It's mainly this strange attitude of "the South" (also seen in your posts) which now increases the peripherals' borrowing problems.
"With friends like that who needs enemies?"
Funny, never heard/ read that Germany considers Portugal a friend.
Did it ever occur to you that you might have misunderstood the purpose of the EU money transfers? I guess they have nothing to do with "friendship".
They were given to enable countries like Portugal to improve their infrastructure and economical basis. So, pray tell, what went wrong?
Why has all that money achieved mostly nothing over the last decades?
Who's faults is that? The others (the ones that gave the money)?
"Norwegian protesters say EU Nobel Peace Prize win devalues award
More than 50 organizations plan to march in Oslo on Sunday to protest of the Nobel Committee's award of the 2012 Peace Prize to the EU at a time of debt crisis."
At the first sight, that sounded OK, wait a minut, it's not because the EU failed in its goals for appeasing the populations, but
"Heming Olaussen, leader of No to EU, stresses the protest is not a protest against EU membership, even though 3 out of 4 Norwegians currently oppose joining. Rather, it marks the organization's objection to the worthiness of the EU as a prize winner, citing the EU's current armament profile, the social and economic unrest amidst the growing youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, its aggressive trade policy toward poor developing countries in Latin America, and efforts to prevent African refuges from coming into "rich Europe."
Well, that peace prize was a world wide joke except in the narrow confines of Brussels, Europe awarding Europe a prize for being Europe.
Here's something for you about 'peaceful Europe'.
"West Germany has been Iraq's prime supplier of expertise and technology for the development and production in the field of weapons of mass destruction. One of the most notorious West German companies in the Iraq business is Water Engineering Trading (WET). This enterprise has sold at least 58 tons of precursor chemicals for production of the nerve gas TABUN to Iraq. In 1986 it exported machinery for poison gas production to Falluja. Daily production was planned at 17.6 tons. [17] WET also delivered machinery for producing 122 mm caliber poison gas grenades. [18] The same company helped equip Iraq's biological warfare research program, sending installations to Salman Pak and Samarra'".
"WET was not an isolated case. Germany was also the source of 200 milligrams of T-2 and HT-2 mycotoxins sold to Iraq in 1986. Pilot Plant, a company based in the West German town of Dreieich, built six chemical factories in Iraq, including Samarra, all of which have chemical weapons potential or produce precursor chemicals".
"Was the German government aware of the deals that contributed to Iraq's rise to a regional superpower status? The evidence is compelling that the German government was not only well informed but even involved".
Etc, etc, etc
See "Iraq's Military Power: the German Connection". (Middle East Research and Information Project)
Not even Hitler used toxic gas in open warfare.
"Moral" Germany, "Self-righteous" Germany, "Pacifist" Germany, "Lesson giving" Germany, "we know best" Germany " "Nobel Peace prize winning EU"………
Your post won't last a second. Busybody Josh the German who pretends to be American will get it deleted immediately.
A while back I wrote about Syria's large quantities of poison gas and it got deleted immediately because I pointed out correctly that the country which has a track record of supplying brutal despots with poison gas is Germany which goes around morally preening to be a high & mighty "pacifist" country.
Hitler never dared to use toxic gas because the Soviets and the allies would have used them too then, and as Germany had a concnetrated population, it would have made high dammages
The Merkel government today is in the line of the ever Germany's hegemonic agenda since the Kaiser
""Moral" Germany, "Self-righteous" Germany, "Pacifist" Germany, "Lesson giving" Germany, "we know best" Germany " "Nobel Peace prize winning EU"………"
Obviously you have an axe to grind with Germany. It's so liberating to have a scapegoat to blame for everything, isn't it?
Reading the comments on this site, it's seems we have a restart of the "Entente Cordiale" (this time with participation of some South-European countries. Seems to me rather a gathering of the frustrated and envious.
Did it ever occur to you, that it might not be all Germany's fault?
Or are you just miffed that they are no longer willing to pay for everything in Europe and ask for something in return?
It's kinda funny that even Portuguese and Spaniards have the nerve to
refer to WW2 when blaming Germany for not sponsoring them as the would like to have (means: no strings attached).
I am just wondering who is "Self-righteous" ....
"The Merkel government today is in the line of the ever Germany's hegemonic agenda since the Kaiser"
Please enlighten me why Germany should not sell it's high-quality weapons to countries. Obviously they just respond to a need.
The US being No.1 seems not be an issue for any one. The sell weapons to i.e., Saudi-Arabia as well. So where is the difference?
Or is it just French envy being "only" No.4 of the largest arms exporters? Again being in the shadow of Germany?
Humpty Dumpty, that's all you can do? reduce Merkevialli to a arms sales policy, then you missed the TE articles and comments since 2009
BTW, "42% of German arms exports now go to third countries, ie, states that are not part of the EU or NATO (but dictatures). However, the figure was only 29% two years ago yet."
France arms exports respect the Atlantic alliance
Interesting analysis of debt sustainability and the flight of capital.
This article is enlightening and confirms my point of view.
Author: Juergen Baetz, Germany Correspondent OF Associated Press
Note that he is not a Southern reporter saying that "Eurozone crisis saves Germany tens of billions" . I just add the question: If this is true, what is the real interest of Germany to end the European debt crisis ??
Germany as always is taking advantage of his European "partners".
The concept of "union" is something Germany will never learn.
Giving with one hand, taking away with the other, so with friends like that, who needs enemies?
Im sorry to repeat this comment but the original one was deleted.
@Josh_US Lux:
I wish you were right:
Just see this links:
If interest rates are all about the risk of default, and we never defaulted any payment tell me the reason why are we paying 7.5% and Germany 1.35%,
The fact is that we are still paying, even those usurious interests.
With the next 2013 budget we will pay 9 000 000 000 Euros of interests: More than the amount of health system next year. If we could have a lower risk then we could be paying half of that amount.
Don't you think it would be easier for Portugal to keep paying its debts with a lower interest rate? (I repeat: we are not in default even with those higher interests) .
Note that a lower amount of interest for Portugal does not represent any additional amount to be payed by Germany or german tax payers.
The fact is that while there is an Euro crisis, Germany , being considered a safety country, can borrow with lower interests.
So this is a pertinent question: Do Germany realy wants the end of European crisis?
And another fact : We are paying higher interest rates because the rating (or should I say the rumor-spreading) agencies do not "trust" us. And other European countries despite do not having to pay more, do not discredit those
agencies, because they are making money with the actual situation.
"..who needs enemies?"
Frankieboy, believe me, you're lucky to have us a "friends", we're much worse as enemy.
BTW, do you actually believe this "Habt euch lieb und seid nett zu einander" crap of the EU.
"....confirms my point of view."
Stating the obvious... Is there another reason why you have chosen that article and not the ones that do not proof your point of view.
"..enlightening " ... The only thing you get is a lighting bolt,
shoved up your ar*e by Zeus himself. Har, Har, har ....
FranciscoLebre: "With the next 2013 budget we will pay 9 000 000 000 Euros of interests: More than the amount of health system next year. If we could have a lower risk then we could be paying half of that amount."
But your unbalanced budgets, which led to high borrowing needs, are 'your' very own risk problems . . . or did the German taxpayers have any say on Portuguese budget decisions? (or on any other country's?)
Why should the German (or other countries' taxpayers) now share the risk created solely by the decision of the people of Portugal to pass budgets that were not covered by their tax income?
*(Portugal just stands as a proxy for the incompatibility between national budget autonomy and the mutualization of the risk which arises from these solely national budget decisions. If some countries want other countries' taxpayers to share their budget borrowing risks, then, logically, they have to give up the right to pass their own budgets - and hand this right over to those who are asked to carry this risk; meaning that these countries have to give up their sovereignty. Why don't 'you' take this first step, before asking others to do the second (e.g. risk-sharing)?
BTW, Greece's household savings are, as a percentage of disposable income, among the highest in the world.
The Portuguese household savings rose from 7.0% in 2007 to 10.6% in 2012. Why, I humbly ask this question, aren't the Portuguese people buying their own countries debt bonds for a reasonable interest instead of pointing their fingers at people from other countries?
Your own people are those "the markets" themselves, which you're blaming here so conveniently. They stopped investing in Portuguese bonds from 2009 on and put their money in saving-deposits instead.
This is the true reason why Portuguese savings 'exploded' from 2009 on, thus helping to trigger the "Portuguese government debt crisis".
@ SinnFrei
"Frankieboy, believe me, you're lucky to have us a "friends", we're much worse as enemy."
Are you sure? Recent History tell us your enemies usually beats you.
By the way..go call Frankieboy to your grandma.
@ la.výritý
"Why, I humbly ask this question, aren't the Portuguese people buying their own countries debt bonds for a reasonable interest instead of pointing their fingers at people from other countries?"
Our big firms are putting their taxes into the Cayman Islands or in The Netherlands and unfortunately most of the Portuguese tax payers are breaking their piggy banks (money boxes) to buy food or basic goods. No money to buy bonds. Meanwhile Germany is saving billions with the Euro crisis.
"Are you sure? Recent History tell us your enemies usually beats you."
Sure, but they needed a hell lot of more people to beat us.
And, they haven't been Portuguese ...
So Frankieboy, keep a low profile .... and do not try to show off with other people's laurels..... So typical Southern-European...
FranciscoLebre: This article is enlightening and confirms my point of view . . .
I've read his opinion-piece. Mr.Juergen Baetz's opinion is biased, if not outright foolish. That his name sounds German makes no difference to the fact. There are plenty of foolish Germans around.
If Germany would have a government, or governments, and a population which is 'unpredictable' in the eyes of international investors, nothing would save the country from joining the ranks of the 'periphery'.
Therefore, its solely the merit of Germany, of the German society as a whole, that 'the market' has trust in the country.
If Portugal and the other troubled Eurozone countries would have implemented the "Lisbon Agenda 2010" ( http://www.euractiv.com/future-eu/lisbon-agenda/article-117510 ) from early on, as Germany did under Chancellor Schroeder, then Portugal and the others most likely wouldn't be in trouble today.
"Money is shyer than an antelope", the investors' popular phrase goes. Germany pays lower interest than some other countries in Europe, because of the countries moderation, prudence and level-headedness! . . . As simple as that.
Even when the country's official unemployment rate was at around 13 percent in summer/fall of 2005 (and the 'unofficial rate' was close to 20 percent) and millions of families in Germany were living far below the living standard of the rest of the Eurozone, there were -because of this- no riots on the streets of Germany's cities, no Euro-flag burning or 'accusation' of neighbors for Germany's misery.
Compare this with Greece: Even when the country had still one of the highest incomes per capita in the world, in 2007 and 2008 (at around $32.000 in 2008), there were constant protests in their streets, often escalating into riots. Here is a YouTube video from 2007 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32mWSfxLLl0&feature=player_embedded
... and from 2008.
... and from 2009
I assume that these extremes are rooted in Greece's and other peripheral countries' history and politics, in the everyday life of the people; especially in the case of Greece in the corruption of their elected political leaders, and in those countries' deeply rooted cronyism and nepotism.
Switzerland, a country NOT in the Eurozone, but with an equally prudent population as Germany's, pays even only 0.39% on its 10-year bonds. Should the prudent, moderate Swiss also share their low interest with the violent, capricious Greeks??
Or take Britain, a country NOT in the Eurozone either; a country in recession, with a big budget deficit and an even bigger trade deficit . . . worse than that of any country in Europe's South. Do you see permanently riots on London's, Liverpool's or Manchester's streets??
The Brits, majoritarian, trust that their government will do 'its job' honestly, even though many voted differently. In return for this political maturity, the current interest-rate on British 10-year g-bonds is 1.746%!
This is solely the merit of the democratically-mature British society (that there is some sporadic rioting, triggered by the Muslim minority, is a different issue). This shown moderation is also why London could become Europe's financial center. A country with a continuously rioting and protesting population will never gain the trust of the 'financial markets', at least not to this extent.
The "markets" honor governmental and social prudence. That's a fact. Just remember: "Money is shyer than an antelope!"
Wrong, the OECD statistical household savings only include the savings deposited in the country which reported them; in this case the Portuguese statistical office.
The money of Portuguese individuals and entities who 'escaped' to "Cayman Islands or The Netherlands" is not part of the statistical matter provided by Portugal, despite that the depositors may hold Portuguese passports. If these "black monies" were added, then Portugal's saving rate would be even higher.
Look it up under on the OECD "ilibrary" under "economics/household-saving-rates-forecasts; I can't provide you with the direct link, it triggered the spam filter.
@ la.výritý:
Despite I cannot agree with some of your statements and conclusions, I have to agree with some of the causes you pointed about the actual Portuguese situation:
In the last "Corruption index 2012 from transparency international" from 5 Dec 2012, Portugal is number 33 worldwide. This seems to be good among the world's 178 countries, but in fact is very poor place considering only the European countries. Only Italy Greece and few Eastern countries are worst than Portugal.
In fact that is the main problem we had (still have) caused by the last 12 years of (P.S.) Socialist Party governments.
That is a serious problem which we cannot blame any other country. It's our own fault and we are now paying for it. No excuses for that. At all.
Another big problem we have is the parallel economy, with an estimated value of 20 x 10^9 Euros a year. I'll give you a small example. I'm sure if you came to Portugal in vacations you will find a place to stay, a house or a room, rented by someone who, officially do not have incomes and therefore do not pay taxes. However the money is here and maybe that is why our economy is not as bad as it seems.
There is much more money circulating in our economy than the numbers stated in the statistics.
Just a note: I don't know about Greece but in the last years I don't think you have ever heard about significant strikes or riots in Portugal.
About the PRESENT situation: We have a new government. They put us under unprecedented austerity measures. They say (and I partially agree) that we have to prove to the markets that we can be reliable and so we have to pay unconditionally all our debts. We should not complaint about interest rates or amounts of debt or maturities.
I think we are going in the right direction. However, since we are trying to be "good boys" is not fair that Europe does not help us.
And what would be the bigger help Europe could give us? We don't ask for more money or bailouts. We only want that Europe show to the markets that they trust us and would support us if (and only if) absolutely necessary.
Just with that position of emergency backup support our interest rates would fall. The amount of the austerity measures could be less painful than they are now. That is also the only way we have to avoid the P.S to regain the next elections and the restart of the same politics that caused our present debt.
Maybe (just maybe) the interest rates of Euro zone would climb up a little bit because the Portuguese risk would be considered.
And I'm sure the all powerful S&P or Moody's would come immediately spreading the rumor that due to Portuguese risk France or Germany should have a lower rating.
But we all (??) know what rating agencies really want: The implosion of the Euro, increasing the importance of the dollar as world currency.
So why do I complaint about Germany?
Just because Germany doesn't want to share the Euro zone global risk, but instead is taking advantage of the present crisis.
The interest rates of Germany are becoming lower only because of the crisis. The greater is the crisis in the South, the lower are Germany interest rates.
Just tell me: What would be the interest rates that Germany would pay without any European crisis? I'm sure it would be a lot more than 1,5% (or less). Last year they achieved negative values. (You can Google about it)
I know that is how the markets work, mainly with the help of the rumor-spreading agencies.
I wouldn't mind at all if Germany would act that way if we were not "partners" in the European Union or the Euro zone.
But Germany is now only thinking in his advantage and making profits with the crisis. Those billions of Euros saved by Germany are a fact.
The result of that may be the end of the Euro and finally the end of the European Union. I wonder if that is the last goal of Germans.
I also don't understand how members of the same "Union" can be stealing taxes from other members. Someone said here it's a "healthy tax competition".
I cannot understand that. Not inside a "Union".
Keep it up Francisco, you have my full support. ;-)
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