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Interesting and though provoking. Keep an eye on your spending.ClickMe
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Interesting and though provoking. Keep an eye on your spending.ClickMe
When I read this, I couldn't help wondering about the correlation between American savings habits and the average returns of low-risk savings accounts. I naturally assumed that periods of higher saving either coincided or immediately followed periods of higher returns.
The average interest rate on a low-risk savings instrument was 5.2 percent in May 1975 (the month American savings peaked at 14.6 percent). Since 1960, average interest rates climbed to their highest in June 1986 (19.1 percent). However, American savings remained relatively constant, hovering around 7 percent in the period between January '90 and January '92. It appears that ~19 percent APY didn't do a lot to encourage better savings habits.
The data shows I obviously afforded rate too much credit for swaying American saving habits.
P.S: what would you do for 19.1 percent return on your savings account?
Why are there less savings?
Well there are several reasons for this. Job loss is one. No job, no income. No income, no savings. Primarily though, financial institutions are paying ridiculously low interest rates. Who wants to deposit , money at .25%. Additionally, even though the FDIC provides insurance of up to $250k on deposit accounts, the fact is the FDIC insures $4.7 Trillion in deposits with only $13.6 Billion in the FDIC fund. So really by default, people are being herded into the stock market for higher returns (Weighing Risk and Reward) on their money. This process began back on January 1, 1980 with the introduction of the 401k retirement accounts. This is where workers could have a portion of their wages (pre-taxed) invested towards retirement. Normally the stock market was where only the wealthy tinkered. Now through the advent of the 401k, it was open to the masses.
In my NOOKBOOK, "Think and Think Again," I talk about the free market system and how there are certain things that interfere with natural process, that then actually create a false economy. The stock market is one of those things, primarily because the stock market is not a true reflection of corporate value. The stock market today is no more than legalized gambling. How so? Think about this if you would. There have been times in recent history when the stock market should have crashed. 2007-2008 was a good example. My broker at the bank advised me back then that I should get in the market because it was at 12,500 and would be at 14,000 by year end. I explained to him something that I'm sure no one had told him before, or even thought of before. I told him that the only reason the market had not crashed was that when economy sours, most people don't invest in the stock market, other than speculators. Then the market reflects the lack of investment usually by declining.
However, because of 401k investments coming into the market every week from payroll withholdings, it continues to provide a false perception of the market. It falsely props it up. In other words mutual fund managers were buying stocks with this 401k money when normally people would not be buying stocks because of the economic conditions or poor performance. Problem is the 401k money continues to flow into the market regardless of the market or the economy. As a result of the additional stock purchases, stock prices would then increase rather than decrease as they normally would, thus creating a false economy, and the false perception of the market.
I advised the broker at that time that the real value of the market was around 6,500. The broker laughed and walked out of my office. About a week later the market began to slide and it slid all the way down to around 6,500. As long as there are 401k monies going into the market, the market will never truly crash, but there will be some very serious corrections when the markets get so unbelievably skewed due to outside influences and inside manipulation. In my book I provide some interesting solutions to this and many other significant issues within our society.
People will save money when it is worth their while to do so. What is needed is higher rates on deposits, and if I might add, more competent leadership of these financial institutions. Given the state of the financial industry, I really don't think the public has much confidence in what has to this point been incompetence in that industry. The public sees bankers as incompetent people when they write bad loans and the government has to bail them out. Bankers have created a poor perception of their abilities to be financially responsible people. Hence government intervention and public skepticism of the industry.
No jobs, low rates.
Why are there less savings?
How do you expect demand to return if savings, and income for adequate savings, are not only way too low, have been too low for decades. Isn't disposable income and savings far, far more important than spendning to immitate demand? Shouldn't the focus be on restoring balance sheets of workers?
Why didn't we simply do a couple quarter income tax moratorium instead of government spending? Why did we have it in our stupid, little heads that we didn't want consumers to save?
A few comments:
"The falling saving rate is a worrying trend. A low stock of savings increases vulnerability to economic shocks."
-> You only see savings as a buffer for rainy days?? Savings is what provides the economy with funds for capital accumulation. THIS is what this is a worrying trend.
"People save more during recessions—and more then businesses care to invest, leading to underutilised resources—"
-> So you're basically saying that SMEs don't have any issue to find funding at the moment as there is a surplus of savings around... Funny it doesn't look at all like I see it out there.
(granted there are also other factors involved)
"so boosting consumption increases aggregate demand and jumps starts recovery. With saving rates already so close to zero, the government might have had better luck boosting the economy through its own dissaving, via deficit-funded stimulus, than through trying to encourage such behaviour in strapped households."
-> This is quite naive. Government has been dissaving for decades already. Stimulus don't work, or at least only provide a short-term boost (and only in terms of GDP growth thanks to the very nature of the GDP equation), especially in an economy that's plagued by both public and private overindebtedness. You can't force people to spend. Supply-side is the solution, as demonstrated by Apple and other consumer electronics firms throughout and despite the whole crisis.
Look at the stats: there's a glut of savings in the market right now, especially when you look at corporate cash. Problem is that with depressed demand, there aren't a lot of high return investments out there. Investment (capital accumulation) is down, but not for any lack of available funds.
I think you got it wrong.
You're taking a Keynesian view. But it's not the demand that makes the "high return investment". It's the right idea that makes it (supply), as my Apple example showed.
If you start propping up demand artificially, with cheap credit or anything, the only thing you do is diverting funds from possibly longer-term profitable investments to short-term ones that would be unprofitable otherwise, but which are now in demand as people suddenly get access to new money.
Eventually, all we're left with is a new debt bubble, that must be repaid back before starting reinvesting again.
That's why investment is down despite enough available funds.
Red tape, banking regulation, and regulatory regime uncertainty are other factors.
That's not an anything view; it's a statistical view. Think about Apple. They're holding on to billions in cash and can't find anything worth while to spend it on. And they wouldn't have all that money if there weren't customer demand for premium computing devices. If companies (like Apple) project weak consumer demand for the future (whether they'reselling goods or physical capital), the projected return on any productive investment is lower.
I haven't seen any data that show that "regime uncertainty" has had any movement in the past 30 years, but it could be out there.
Well... I disagree :-) (surprisingly)
Apple is not holding cash because it doesn't have any investment possibility. It holds cash because it generates cash a lot quicker than it generates new ideas, thanks to a massive profit margins due to excellent marketing. Not all very successful IT/electronics companies are in this situation regarding cash holdings. Still, they sell A LOT.
Weak demand has clearly not stopped Apple, its competitors, and other related firms since 2007!!
And you are contradicting yourself here:
"And they wouldn't have all that money if there weren't customer demand for premium computing devices."
Yes, and it's clearly a "supply creates its own demand" example. Supply was created ex-nihilo in this case. Good products ATTRACTED demand, not the other way round.
Regarding regulatory regime uncertainty, it only concerns the last few years.
I totally agree with your point of view. Now Americans spend money not because we need to but because it is FREE (zero % interest rate, why not.) What's the point to save while we are losing money everyday when the return can't even cover the inflation. If our government doesn't stop it's money printing machine, then it is impossible for the saving rate to go up.
Americans thought that the increasing values of their houses was more than enough saving.
Whenever data is presented about the savings rate it is never clear if this rate is based on gross income, take home pay (which is post 401K contribution) or disposable income i.e. after paying monthly bills and living expenses.Which is it in the top chart? How about avergae monthly/yearly savings accumulation?
Young workers have lower median incomes than pensioners. Why should they be saving then, at negative real interest rates and with risk of appropriation over the next decades, for that distant and more privileged retirement?
There's far more income in middle age to start saving (and perhaps real yields will rise above zero at some time in the next decades).
Without compound interest, more saving by young people would only detract from welfare.
I hope you aren't a young worker. Those who believed such things in the early 1980s ended up much worse off.
"There's far more income in middle age to start saving."
If you want a house, you have to start saving for a downpayment first. If you are married and have a child, one of you might end up out of the workforce, or you both may work part time (as my wife and I did) reducing your income for a time. Then you need to save for your children's education.
Meanwhile, if you are lucky your pay will plateau. If you are unlucky you will work in an sector where pay temporarily soars, upsize your lifestyle like your peers, and then see your pay plunge and never recover its former highs. (Oil in the early 1980s, Wall Street in the 1980s, dot.coms in the 1990s, Wall Street again in the 2000s, real estate and mortage brokers in the mid-2000s, dot.coms again since 2007, oil and gas again today). They should have banked the windfall rather than assuming it was a permanent consequence of their own genius, but they never do.
"That distant and more privileged retirement?"
For today's young workers retirement will indeed be distant, but will not be priviledge, even if they do save. Unless, as some evidence suggests, life expectancy begins to fall.
Saving more means, in the aggregate, spending less.
And, every company I know is doing its best to get their customers to spend more. I know I am.
No, that's wrong. Your viewing it as a zero sum game, which it is not.
You've lost me. What's wrong?
It's like saying that no matter what you do, you still end up in the same place.
People who save/invest over time spend more over time. Perhaps at an instance it may be correct, but over time it's wrong.
I'm probably just being a stickler and you may have meant it in jest, but that approach/perspecitve I reject.
I think I probably agree with you. My comment was meant more as an observation of how individuals in society appear to be working at cross-purposes to each other.
That is, it's probably best for individuals that they save more. However, firms are doing their utmost to get consumers and clients to spend more, and save less.
And, spending more leads to more spending, which helps build the economy over time.
I think the best individual position to be in may be as one of those who owns a firm - through stock ownership, proprietary ownership, etc. - and yet saves to his/her utmost, and uses the savings to purchase more ownership over time, with enough savings on the side to have a cushion through the cycles.
So, one saves individually, and benefits from others' lack of savings. Now, whether this is moral and/or ethical is an interesting question, however...
I distrust the line because I think it's used as excuse for government to spend when people are tightening up. The people may fear for the future and save what they have while the government will open the spicket and send them over the cliff. In other words, if you fear famine, you'll save your food. Many use this as an excuse for the government to take everyone's savings and throw a banquet. This is the Economist's take- I reject it.
To be perhaps overly simplistic, those that save at the most opportune time to save, and spend at the most opportune time to spend, live the most abbundant life.
The best individual position is to own a company when it's growing, and to cash in on a company and sell it before everyone else realizes that it's not. If you can do that, you will have abundance.
On a personal level, I'm very good at saving and waiting- very bad at spending and taking advantage of a good deal when it's offered.
"I distrust the line because I think it's used as excuse for government to spend when people are tightening up."
Well, I think it's Keynesian 101 that gov't should spend when the economy has tanked, and then reign-in spending when the consumer has kicked back in.
To me it seems like intelligent policy, although I understand that not everyone is good with it, given in part that it appears to take away personal incentives to save and take responsibility for one's own life.
Then again, not saving helps the economy, which brings us back to square one...
"spending leads to more spending"
It might be more accurate to say that spending more now means spending less later. And vice versa. Current policies strongly discourage savings; the effect is a short term boost to consumption at the expense of consumption in the future. The future in that sense is an economic 'commons' for which the central planners don't seem to much care.
I should have also clarified the important difference between spending for true consumption (the instant gratification kind) versus spending for investment (in education, tools, one's health, etc.). The latter may actually increase future earnings and thus spending. But unfortunately the bulk of what's being stimulated is the former. In any event, artificially tilting the field against natural, beneficial individual time preferences is reckless and inherently detrimental to the economic well-being of the vast majority.
"It might be more accurate to say that spending more now means spending less later."
I believe this may be true individually - although as others have pointed out in this comments section, having less at times allows certain gov't programs to kick in which help subsidize individual college tuition, medical care, etc.
However, in the aggregate, I believe spending leads to more spending via the money multiplier effect.
"In any event, artificially tilting the field against natural, beneficial individual time preferences is reckless and inherently detrimental to the economic well-being of the vast majority."
Well, I think it's fair to differentiate between spending and investing, and one could argue that the former is in regards to non-assets, and/or depreciating assets, while the latter refers to assets likely to appreciate.
However, whether it's reckless for McDonald's, for example, to create incentives for folks to supersize their meal, and therefore spend more money - and at the likely individual detriment of both the consumer and society as a whole, which has to deal with it's costs - leads to all kinds of questions regarding free speech, free will, the pursuit of happiness, private property and the management thereof, etc.
Well, the multiplier effect is a mysterious thing that nobody can quite figure, at least at the aggregate level. Clearly the multiplier for tools is apt to be more than the multiplier for lap dances. But I'll grant that IF, and to the extent, revenues are reinvested into higher efficiency/productivity, there's a positive multiplier.
And I have no beef with McDonalds (or Whole Foods for that matter). They excel at meeting customer demand; if they didn't (unlike banks) they'd be out of business. Of course, it would be nice to have transparency as to the externalities of all businesses--especially those that fall on the consumer directly and become part of the value proposition.
Looking at it from 30,000 ft. -
The US economic system reminds me of how computer mapping of gazelles running from lions in a zig-zag pattern suggests that gazelle behavior is less about avoiding the lions, and more about placing unhealthy gazelles at the edge of the herd to be sacrificed to the lions, and to the long-run benefit of the herd.
So, at some point, there are certain things the US economic system is going to do in the long run, and modifying behavior to avoid being placed at a difficult position is the best individual choice.
Individual choices are subject to systemic incentives. Easy credit, unrewarding savings, manipulated equity markets. These are incentives. Now, if we re-introduced starvation and/or debtors' prison and/or more unpleasant welfare arrangements, those would be valuable incentives as well--much as the lions in the gazelle analogy. Just a shame that we're whipping the herd to a gallop as the cliff approaches.
"Just a shame that we're whipping the herd to a gallop as the cliff approaches."
In my world, we're running away from the cliff, and have been since Sept. 2008. :)
Is it necessarily Keynesian 101 that gov't should spend?
If you have to have a budget deficit I would think an equivalent if not better Keynsian policy is for the government to cut taxes. Both responses result in budget deficits where the government spends more than it takes in.
I disagree, not saving does not help the economy when it's best to not spend. If a decisions is to spend or not to spend, and the better decision is not to spend, than that is the better decision to take. It might not be as opportune for you to spend as it is for someone else, therefore it makes sense that that person spends and therefore you should save and give your money to them. Like in sports, many times its best not to take the shot and to pass the ball off to someone else.
"Is it necessarily Keynesian 101 that gov't should spend?"
Yes, and during particularly strong economic downturns.
"If you have to have a budget deficit I would think an equivalent if not better Keynsian policy is for the government to cut taxes."
The returns on dollars spent, whether on a road or on a tax cut, are not the same. The returns on road building are generally much higher.
"It might not be as opportune for you to spend as it is for someone else, therefore it makes sense that that person spends and therefore you should save and give your money to them."
I agree with everything up until the "give your money to them" part. However, at some point this reaches economic metaphysics, which I'm not very good at.
For example, person A spends their money on lap dances, and person B on The Christian Children's Fund. Which is better? I think it depends on the person benefiting.
For the lap dancer, the spending by person A is better, unless he/she has a soft spot for poor children, at which point he/she might donate part of his/her earnings to the Christian Children's Fund.
What if you already have decent roads? Isn't there a level of investment in roads where further investment does not gain the same return? I love concrete, you love concrete, heck, the Romans from 2000 years ago loved concrete, but you agree that eventually you run out of things to pour concrete on? Further, most of the people who know how to build roads are already building roads, unless you plan on retraining lawyers or Economist journalists to build roads.
The value in a road is not so much the road but rather the goods that travel over them. In our society, the roads are generally public roads built with political montivations in mind. The goods are generally private sector goods produced with economical motivations in mind. I'm not discounting the value of roads but I'm emphasizing that when the economy slows, you want enhanced focus on making economic decisions, not political decisions.
Certainly there comes a point of diminishing returns on infrastructure investments. And we are probably at (or past!) that point on some kinds. But that is a long way from saying that there are not still worthwhile infrastructure investments that could be made.
The challenge, of course, is to get spending directed to those, rather than to whatever would be the prettiest edifice for a politician to get his name on. Heck, we would be significantly better off if we directed all of our infrastructure spending for a couple of years to catching up on "deferred maintenance." Unfortunately, there is no way for a politician to get his name posted on maintenance....
I suspect that many people have "deferred maintenance" on their private properties. I have on mine until I get the funds.
What if we took fewer dollars out of peoples' pockets so that they could do infrastructure improvements, or are public infrastructure improvements better than private ones? Perhaps public politicians are more important than private citizens? Perhaps they're more knowledgable?
I admit that I, too, have had some deferred maintenance. But it was a matter of waiting an extra 10% on things like full repainting. But I didn't simply stop doing maintenance and let things fall apart. Maybe because I was aware that, if deferred long enough, I would be looking at a far more expensive replacement instead. But that kind of "pay short term costs to avoid much larger long term costs" thinking seems in short supply in our legislatures.
If the public roads are full of pot holes (and they have definitely been getting that way here), then it seems like public funds ought to get spent maintaining them. At least, I don't see a way to convince any private enterprise to pay for filling them, when there is no prospect of a direct return. (If you want to propose a shift to private toll roads, that's a different discussion.)
Similarly with the rest of the public infrastructure we already have. If you want to try to make a convincing case for privatizing it, by all means go for it. But until and unless it happens, what we have ought to get maintained.
If you don't have the money, you don't have the money. You can want to pay short term costs all you want, if you don't have it, you don't have it. This is definitely in short supply in our legislatures.
Right now the government isn't yet bankrupt- there is money for potholes where they need to be filled in. But if you're talking stimulus, I have lots of shovel ready jobs around my house that don't require boards and buearacracy to approve, and so do many other people. Currently, as you observed, that money is being thrown at political pet projects.
To be honest, I really don't care how the roads get paid for, or if they do, if I have a leaky ceiling. The assertion that the politician's spending projects with my money always comes before my spending projects with my money is garbage. It's my bloody money, not theirs. They don't have any until they take it from us.
The government, in constructing a safety net, has made it unnecessary if not imprudent, to save. Saving for college means that your student qualifies for less financial aid. Saving for long term disability means that the nursing home gets all of your wealth before you qualify for Medicare. Saving for retirement means that your social security benefits will be subject to income tax. And forgoing current consumption (with zero financing on a new car) to save at a 1% return (about minus 1% in real terms) is obviously irrational.
Plus the economy would collapse if we didn't 'Spend, spend, spend!'
Exactly. Who among us can wait for the luxury of Medicaid-provided nursing care? Why even earn income if some of it will be taxed? Why not just assume that your kids will get into the best possible school with full financial aid?
I think the smarter way to play the game is to save, and to invest the savings in those firms which are most efficient at capturing disposal income cash flows.
This may include nursing homes as you cited above, plus companies which are key to many of our lives, e.a., energy firms (Exxon, etc.) and those with strong ROEs, like Apple.
I feel like I'm harassing you- my apologies.
As the government grows larger and the private sector shrinks relatively, the smarter way to play the game is spend money on those activities that gain you the most political connections. For this reason people are willing to spend a fortune to get their kids into Harvard or Yale- not to learn anything, but to make connections with people who have parents in government and will be in government so when government divides the spoils, they'll have access to the decision makers within government.
"For this reason people are willing to spend a fortune to get their kids into Harvard or Yale- not to learn anything, but to make connections with people who have parents in government..."
Do you know anyone who has actually done this? Do government workers generally make the kinds of salaries that can pay for a Harvard tuition?
With all apologies, it sounds a bit like a Rush Limbough conspiracy theory...
I almost don't even understand the question- does being an alumnus of an institution bestow privleges or open doors for you by the connections you make there??? yes.
Have all the recent presidents and supreme court justices been alumni of the ivy league schools??? yes.
Being that the most powerful positions in society are occupied by alumni of the ivy leagues, in order to be within that group of power, is it not beneficial to be an alumnus as well??? yes.
Do powerful politicians manage to get their children into the ivy leagues despite their academic achievement for the obvious benefit of the certification??? yes
I believe it's a conclusion that it based on solid observations. I don't live in that world but it doesn't mean that I don't observe it. I'm not a Kennedy but I think we all know the privleges one has for being a Kennedy- you literally get away with murder.
So, you're saying that you don't know a government worker who has sent their kids to Harvard, so they can game the system?
No, you're right, government workers don't game the system or use their contacts to garner special privleges. Politicians especially don't do any of this.
For example, you would agree that GW Bush made his way into Yale on his own merits? And you would agree that the folks that GW Bush met at Yale didn't open other doors for him that would be unavailabe if he had not made it into Yale, on his own merits?
You would also agree that somebody like President Obama, who has never had to release his transcripts or justify why people think he's intelligent, can be trusted to be intelligent purely based on the institutions that he attended? Further, there's no question how he got into Harvard by the very rare path that he took through Occidental, being a self-professed stoner...
No, they didn't go to those institutions for special privleges and nobody helped get them there and, even though they both went government, that was accidental as both men were just as motivated for the private sector...
I asked you a yes or no question. Apparently, the answer is no.
Dang you're harsh :)
I'm not in the political world and my family does not have those contacts. More local to my life, having served in the military, I do know generals and admirals who have used their contacts to get their children into the military academies with less than stellar academic records to give them a head start in a military career. I count that as gaming the system- what say you?
Has your family ever gamed the system to give you an advantage?
I have people close to me who ran out of money and had to liquidate savings (401k and other) during the last 4 years to pay their bills. They ended up going bankrupt anyways.
I wonder at the 291k retirement balance. I was suspicious the mean was much lower, but looking here http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/guaranteeing-retirement-income/528... both the mean and the median is much lower.
The median appears to be near 0.
Yep. Decades of unfettered fiscal and monetary 'management' have pretty much strip-mined the country's private wealth. Arguably it has wasted quite a bit of the public wealth as well; to wit our multi-trillion dollar deferred maintenance on critical infrastructure. The Founders would be apalled, and request their images removed from our currency. Suitable replacements would be Woodrow Wilson, Richard Nixon, Arthur Burns, Hank Paulson. Alexander Hamilton can stay, of course.
While I personally wouldn't want to pull from my 401(k) unless I really needed the extra cash flow, the 401(k) loan could be viewed as a diversification strategy for the portfolio. By temporarily removing that portion of your savings from the account, you are shielding it from current loses in the market and (depending on your creditworthiness to yourself) guaranteeing a specific rate of return for the loaned amount upon repayment. I believe my 401(k) demands an interest rate of 5 or 6%, which obviously is currently better than any of your typical non-equity options.
The Fed paper referenced in the article says that even a loan from a traditional 401(k) can be argued to not be hit by double taxation due to the after tax repayments being spread across 5 years. I'm still wrapping my head around that explanation, but agree that a Roth 401(k) would avoid the tax issues entirely.
I have a suggestion. Try to coordinate your advice that people need to save more for retirement with the public policy idea that government old age benefits should be means tested.
Those advocating the policy, both Democrats and Republicans, do not use lifetime income as the measure of "means." They base it on how much is left after lifetime spending. Those who lived large will get public benefits in old age to provide a standard of living equal to those who scrimped and saved, according to the plan.
Try to coordinate the fall in the U.S. savings rate with public policies of the past. The elimination of tax deductions for borrowing (except mortgages) and the creation of all kinds of tax subsidies for saving (IRAs, 401Ks, 529s) starting in the early 1980s. All intended to increase the savings rate. Clearly this did not work, except to redistribute income upward.
Culture matters more. America's cultural leaders, in the advertizing industry, continually work to upsize the amoung of consumer buying that must occur for a decent Americna life to be lived. With politicians joining in, because it is good for the economy, and the media joining in, because "news" stories on spending attract advertizers.
That's actually the best argument I've ever heard against means testing. If you instead just have a flat retirement benefit, then there's no disincentive to save. People you live large (or are poor or unlucky) have to live at the minimum, while savers get to supplement the minimum with their savings. Comes down to an empirical question of whether means testing actually reduces lifetime savings or not, which I doubt, but have no idea if it's true or not.
No worries with redistributing income upward on the IRAs and 401Ks. There's ALOT of money there and there are, and will be, ideas floating around Congress to confiscate that money.
If you haven't noticed, the government is running trillion dollar deficits and needs cash... everything else takes a back seat to that.
"If you haven't noticed, the government is running trillion dollar deficits and needs cash..."
Given that it's inflating away the deficit at 2% a year, it may not need the cash.
Theoretically anyway, within 36 years any gov't debt incurred today will have been inflated away to zero.
Reaching zero present value will be awesome for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds that are compelled to hold the bulk of their reserves in 'safe' government issues.
The banks just need to ensure that they have a positive ROE in their business activities.
I believe that Chase, for example, has an ROE of about 8% at present, while Apple approaches 50%. One could argue that Apple is the much better business.
However, any business which garners a consistently positive NPV is worth investing in, at least in theory.
What is proposed for Medicare is in place for Medicaid. Just search for "Medicaid Planning" for 10,000 advice books on the subject.
Sounds like a leftist Utopia where everyone is truly equal by being truly poor and everything is valued at nothing.
As opposed to a rightest Utopia where the owner of a slave ship congratulates himself for providing jobs for everyone? :)
It takes government to take away your rights and make you a slave. Not sure how that fits into a rightist Utopia.
We live in a democracy, McGenius. :)
Last I recall, we live in a constitutional republic.
Democracy is just another word for tyranney by the mob.
"Last I recall, we live in a constitutional republic."
A constitutional republic is a form of democracy.
"Democracy is just another word for tyranney by the mob."
What form of gov't would you prefer other than a democracy?
Everybody knows that the ideal form of government is a benign dictatorship. Perhaps the better question for McG is how he intends to assure that the dictator that we get is benign. Somehow that is the point where "it happens by magic!" always seems to enter into the discussion.
Why save from one's work when the government can, at a moment's whim to pay for social programs for those that don't work, reduce the savings rate by driving down interest rates.
The Economist has come many times to the conclusion that it doesn't pay for the government to balanace its books because it can always devalue the dollar, i.e. the very medium people save in.
In that case, you could invest in TIPS or equities and feel no pinch at all.
Because naturally the index of inflation that government's TIPS are based on are accurate and relevant.
If you don't want to invest in them, find another inflation hedged investment vehicle. Don't complain that the private market isn't giving you the return you'd want.
The private market is being quite rational in terms of paying market returns. My gripe is that there is a juggernaut in the market that can conjure money and is offering borrowers (e.g. banks) a better deal than any rational investor would.
I figure I don't need to save. The government has plenty of social programs that'll provide for me.
That's the kind of faith Saints wish they had.
Do you live in New Orleans, or New Jersey hurricane-hit area?
Obama said he'd take care of everything. Have faith in Obama... they did during the last election.
To me the sudden increase in 401(k) loans is less about myopia and more a symptom of under-saving.
Funny, I see it as a symptom of over-spending.
But we have to justify the credit crack addicts' behaviors.
After all, the sole purpose of production is consumption.
And if we stop consuming, then the folks in the Ivory Towers will jump up and down and have a fit.
They will say it is bad for GDP and the economy.
(Are you sure you're not new here, A.C.S.?)
Is the Netherlands next?
Consumer debt amounts to about 250 percent of available income. By comparison, in 2011 even the Spaniards only reached a debt ratio of 125 percent.
That was interesting. Thanks for raising some new, topical issues.
Macro-theory draws a long-term correlation between savings and investments, system-wide - but is that relevant today? With the Fed creating $85-billion of new money a month via QE, all of the nation's investment requirements could be met with those QE funds alone, and with no private savings at all.
You do make a wonderful point - spending that QE money on public investment projects that increase the potential output of the system would be a great idea, from every angle - but one. You're so politically naive it almost hurts to read the piece - those who make the decisions have decided it's much better (for them personally) to spend QE money buying Wall Street of its MBS-mistakes than 'wasting it' on bricks and mortar and things of that sort that do nothing for the folks on The Street. Gotta not lose sight of who matters, guy - and who doesn't.
If the time ever comes when QE ends and private savings are needed to fund investments (like how big is that 'if', and what kind of disasters must happen to bring it about - the mind can't ...) rates will rise and more savings will follow.
QE funds are even better spent on private investment projects. I do agree with you, though, that I'd rather have had more stimulus spending and less QE. Sadly, Congress disagreed with us.
Not too worried about a lack of savings to fund investments. There's an excess of cash now, and there's always the foreign capital surplus resulting from our trade deficit.
Congress and the Administration do what The Street tells them to.
Right about the cash - there's so much of it out-'n-about now that there's literally no place to put it. Using the QE$ to fund Treasuries dedicated to infrastructure would have been such a nice, elegant solution - for everyone but the wise guys.
The worst part is that while the infrastructure bank remains a good idea, every year that Congress waits and delays its spending is a year that the costs go up. Spending will never be cheaper than it has been for the past 5 years.
The drop began in the 1980s, perhaps because the Great Moderation made people less fearful of economic uncertainty.
Perhaps it was because of the great credit expansion and the need to keep up with the Jones'.
Spend it all, and borrow even more.
"You deserve it."
Meanwhile, the average retirement account balance for people between 55 and 64 is $291,000, which will only provide about $12,000 a year in inflation-indexed income.
Toss in the $12,000/yr for Social Security and they are up to $24k/yr.
About a $10/hr wage (with fewer taxes taken out).
Meanwhile, the average retirement account balance for people between 55 and 64 is $291,000, which will only provide about $12,000 a year in inflation-indexed income.
Of course that $12k/yr is taxable income, so the more you save now the more you'll pay in taxes later.
And if you save and draw out too much, then Social Security benefits become taxable (50% or 85% of what you get from SS is added to the retirement account taxable income).
So why save?
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Finnegans Wake
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Grumpy bastard's 2010 mock and draft stock
Dec 10, 2009 at 12:47 »
The last few games have everyone in a foul mood, and draft talk comes early this year. Will try to do some updates through the bowl games on players to watch.
Assuming we get two comp picks (Nate Washington and Bryant McFadden). Both guys signed rather modest contracts, which factors, and IMO the PS tend to get screwed anyway on comp values, so my rough-hewn early estimate is for a R4 and a R6.
We've chewed over needs, and we'll continue to revise. As to value, that will be a moving target. One player in this equation is the CBA, lack of which may entice a larger than normal class of junior declarees. This makes mocking difficult at best, since using NFLDS as a guide only includes senior values, and interpolating a large swath of juniors will mean mocking is even less an exact "science" than usual.
At 6-6, it looks increasingly unlikely that we get in at 9-7, so running the table will be needed to make the post. That doesn't smell right. With some of these losses, 8-8 feels about right, but if Pola returns, 9-7 will be a more logical ticket. I'll go with that, and assume we are drafting ~1.17, +/-3.
Guys we'd love to have but who will be long gone and too rich for a trade:
DTs Ndamukong Suh, Neb.,
Gerald McCoy, Okla.,
could both transition to explosive 3-4 DEs, but should be gone in the first five picks. I've seen comparisons of Suh to Warren Sapp and McCoy to Kevin Williams, but still would love to see how these guys would do at LDE, with Hood prepped for a more natural fit at RDE.
S Eric Berry
is, hands down, the best safety in the draft. He should go top 5, but is a lock for top 10. Comparisons to Ed Reed aside, Berry can play either safety spot, is a true and humble student of the game, and is the complete package. He may be slightly small for the job, but that's the only knock, and I doubt it matters. Let mock drafters huff and puff over USC's Taylor Mays: he's a brutal hitter with shitty cover instincts, and has been exposed time and again. In fact, unless Crazy Assed Al Davis takes Mays in round one, it would not surprise me if Mays fell to round two, like last year's "round one lock" Rey Maualuga. The similarities to Maualuga are striking: violent player, with brains of mashed potatoes. I'd be happy to have a safety tandem of Polamalu and Berry, though.
ILB Rolando McClain,
Bama is somewhat reminiscent of Patrick Willis, and looks like he should be drafted close to the top 10, if not in the top 10. I doubt we move up to grab him, although I think he plays with more polish than Brandon Spikes, Fla. Spikes might be available at 1.17, and despite the notorious eye-gouge incident, may be a good value for us. If McClain is there at 1.17, I'd be even more inclined to jump. McClain, or Spikes, seem better suited to the Mack LB spot that Larry Foote used to man, where Lawrence Timmons seems less the enforcer (and perhaps better suited to a move to the Buck LB with coverage duties).
Guys we will consider at 1.17 but reject:
DT Jared Odrick, PSU
. Odrick, moving up most draft boards, has variously been assigned a value from ~1.10 to 2.42. I think that's because Odrick looks like a guy who will transition well to the NFL, and should be able to play as a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 DT, but he doesn't have the kind of punch guys like Suh or McCoy have. In short, we drafted Ziggy Hood last year, and it's doubtful we return to the well with another player so little differentiated from him. Odrick may be tougher against the run, but I still think he's a R2 value for us. So if he would be there at 2.49, giddyap.
CB Joe Haden of Florida
looks like the best CB in a weak class, and could go off the board earlier than 1.17. Haden's got speed and all the qualities you want in a top corner, except height. Listed at 5'11", I suspect when he goes to the combine he comes in closer to 5'9". That's a major liability for a first round corner, IMO.
CB Patrick Robinson, Fla. St.,
is also listed at 5'11", and it will be interesting to see what he measures out at, but Robinson's knock is consistency.
CB Donovan Warren
, Michigan is also getting some talk as a mid-R1 corner, but despite legit size and speed, he's also been a bit inconsistent (check his performance against Golden Tate). Warren will need time to develop, but would be a great R2 prospect.
CB Ras-I Dowling, UVA,
is also getting some mid-R1 talk, but when you talk about a corner being fluid and able to flip his hips, that's not a strong point for Ras-I. He projects more as a FS IMO, which could be how the Steelers would see him, or as a CB/FS hybrid, but I'd prefer a FS who's smoother.
NT Terrence Cody, Bama
, AKA "Mount Cody." Cody is already a Casey Hampton-sized beast. That's the good news... and the bad. Cody is the perfect 3-4 NT, but conditioning may be an issue, and it is likely he won't be able to stay in on any passing downs. Tomlin may look for a more active guy who can add on some weight and be able to play three downs, if asked. Cody wouldn't be a bad fit necessarily, but I suspect he latches on with a team like the Chargers.
Prospects I think we'll look at, in order of interest:
1. S Earl Thomas, Texas
. The redshirt soph has said he's staying, but let's see if that changes over the next few weeks. Another smallish safety in the mold of Eric Berry, but looks like he can play strong or free, great speed, great ball instincts. Worth watching in the big game as a possible R1 pick.
2. NT Dan Williams, Tenn.
Williams has really been getting a lot of attention this year, and may have passed Cody as the premier 3-4 NT. He's lower to the ground than Cody at 6'2", and weighs in at a respectable but not obscene 325 pounds. Combine numbers will be a big part of Williams's story, as most premier NT candidates can throw the bar up ~30-35 times. More active, less likely to get winded. We need an anchor to the middle as badly as we need a playmaking FS.
3. OT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa.
Possibly the best OT value in the ~1.17 range. Could play RT or LT, and has good speed. If Colon is retained, won't see much playing time early on, but could shift inside as an immediate (and big-bodied) upgrade at RG. Positional flexibility could be huge.
4. OG Mike Iupati, Idaho.
Currently the top rated interior lineman, does not appear to be a center prospect, but has the size to possible swing to RT. Even with the middlin' Kemo, fair rookie Foster, and untested rookie Urbik, an upgrade to either OG spot cannot be discounted. Given the way OGs slide at draft time, Iupati may be more of a R2 look.
5. CB Brandon Ghee, Wake.
Ghee is not getting as much talk as Haden, Warren, Robinson, or Dowling, but certainly has the size, speed, and skill to warrant a look here.
7. RB/KR C.J. Spiller, Clemson.
Spiller could go top-10 rather easily, but we've seen running back slide come draft day. Steeler Nation would let out a collective groan at taking a RB again in R1, but Spiller would easily replace two starters currently on the roster: he would be a younger change of pace back to replace Willie Parker, and he would be an explosive return man to replace Stefan Logan. Purely a BAA value pick, if he is here.
8. ILB Brandon Spikes, Fla.
Torn on Spikes, and not only due to the eye-gouge. Sometimes looks like a world-beater -- nasty, fast, powerful -- and sometimes does not look like he has what we look for mentally, with bad instincts and angles. Could Spikes drop to R2 as well?
[R2-7 to be updated later.]
Last Edit: Dec 16, 2010 at 08:23 by Finnegans Wake
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Re: Grumpy bastard's 2010 mock and draft stock
Reply #1 on:
Dec 14, 2009 at 12:14 »
Sorry, put my reply on another thread by mistake. Moved it here.
You've mentioned Spiller as a possibility here and again in your team analysis on another thread. As a Clemson guy I've watched him every week and I'd like nothing better to see him in Black and Gold. Never considered it a possibility with Mendenhall coming into his own. Plus, typically if you take a RB in the first round he should be an every down 25+ carry guy, and I don't see Spiller as that. However, I hadn't thought about the fact that if STs are that important, why not grab a guy who can instantly improve that area, plus add something to the offense?
Things you don't see about him in the stat sheet include how much he affected field position. I know it's not an NFL tactic to pooch kick, but in college teams just stopped kicking to him. More often than not Clemson was starting their drives around the 40 because opponents were afraid of the big return.
Honestly, homerism aside, I see Spiller as a more talented Reggie Bush. He's faster, more elusive. Not sure what size differential there is. Negative for me would be durability. He never had a serious injury, but he seemed to be dinged up a lot. Fought a turf toe all year.
Not sure if that's who you want at #15 slot, but it would be intriguing.
Finnegans Wake
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Re: Grumpy bastard's 2010 mock and draft stock
Reply #2 on:
Dec 14, 2009 at 13:21 »
Thanks for the input, msdmnr. While most would agree that an infusion on D, I still think you have to consider BAA in all rounds, and in many circles Spiller is considered a top-10 or even top-5 player. If the (presumably) new OC does re-dedicate attention to the running game, I think having a COP to RM is a nice option, not to mention that if RM were hurt our depth would suddenly look a bit thin. But I am somewhat enamored of the idea of combining FWP and Stefan Logan into one guy: free up an extra roster space: perhaps burn that on something like a KO specialist. Given the number of losses this year that came down to ST TDs allowed, I could live with that gambit.
Out of my mind on Saturday night...
Finnegans Wake
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Re: Grumpy bastard's 2010 mock and draft stock
Reply #3 on:
Jan 27, 2010 at 18:05 »
Some targets. NFLDS overall ranking in brackets.
Steelers don't have pressing need here, and this class is just awful anyway. Fordham's
John Skelton [194]
appears to be raising his stock some at the Senior Bowl, but if Batch retires, I'd look to the FA market.
The issue with FWP as COP back will be price; I suspect he leaves, and if so, we aren't spending a high draft pick on a RB. Two exceptions: in R1,
CJ Spiller [6]
would be too much of a weapon to ignore, not only the home run speed threat, but a receiving option and a dangerous return man. He should be drafted in the top 15.
Dexter McCluster [81]
is getting some rave reviews as a playmaker at the Senior Bowl, despite being about 168#. McCluster could be a slot receiver full time, and COP back as needed, and could be tried as an alternate at KR/PR. I said a few weeks ago McCluster could go as high as R2; his stock now reflects that, as most draft boards have him as a R2/3 cusp value. Expect him to go up a little more before all is done.
This RB class doesn't exactly feature speed, and I don't see a lot of COP backs who would seem to fit our needs. Not to say that there aren't plenty of backs who couldn't succeed in the right system, but if we're looking for a jolt of adrenaline, then I think a few late round backs do merit mention. Arkansas'
Michael Smith [406]
might be worth a late flyer if he's healed from a nagging hammy and can post a 40 time in the 4.4's. In fact, I'll probably wait for the combine results to see if anyone in the R2-7 zone can actually break into the 4.4's; it doesn't look promising. Smith is projected as a FA, but Hampton's
LaMarcus Coker [424]
is seen as a FA with serious red flags: he left Tennessee after flunking four pot tests. That should exclude him from any Steelers board, but he seems to have genuinely turned things around, and he has legit 4.39 speed, and possibly better. He could be a steal in R5, using the first of our comp picks, for example. For the possible ROI on a Chris Johnson type, I'd ante up the R5 to ensure some other team doesn't take him.
Aside from that, a miserable year for QBs or RBs who fit as COP.
Another area of scant need. If Sweed can get his shit together, so much the better, but even with "only" Ward, Holmes, and Wallace, we're stocked. I see WR as a position we might use a very late round pick on. Connecticut's
Marcus Easley [170]
is a walk-on who became a legit go-to guy, a 6'2" 215# athlete who can run a 4.40 and may be able to play another position like FS. Raw clay, in other words.
If you're looking for a Hines Ward type, check out UAB's
Joe Webb [249].
Webb's got nice size at 6'3" 223#, but speed is a bit lacking at 4.67. Went from WR to QB back to WR and is starting to show nicely after a rough start in Mobile.
Doubt the Steelers draft a TE with Miller, Miller Lite, and FB/TE Johnson. I just haven't really paid attention to the late rounders, if they are looking for someone to push Spaeth. This year would seem to have other priorities, though.
An area of need, as Hartwig is better than Mahan but a long ways from being dominant. A thin class, however, certainly not as strong as last year. At the top, Florida's
Maurkice Pouncey [38]
is a junior who has OG experience, nice size at 6'5" 318#, and who I think could even crack R1. Like Tebow, he's used to the shotgun; unlike Tebow, he should adjust quickly. I doubt he lasts to our R2 pick, but to draft him earlier would mean we ought to trade down. Pouncey is, IMO, heads and shoulders above the rest of this class.
Matt Tennant [62]
out of BC has the skills but is a bit light at 290#. Maybe if he had a year behind Hartwig to add some bulk, but I'm worried that he won't have the anchor against real NFL talent, and wouldn't use anything earlier than a R3 pick. He's currently slotted as a late R2.
I'm not thrilled with the rest. Perhaps Indy will reveal some good strength candidates; I had seen Eric Olsen as a guy who might fall to R5, despite projections higher, but I'm off him and all ND OL. He has not impressed at Mobile, and NFLDS has dropped him to R6. I have him as DND.
OT remains a legitimate target, as Starks is arguably not a franchise LT, Colon better suited inside, and depth is just a nightmare. Rutgers'
Anthony Davis [20]
is appearing in mocks higher than Iowa's
Brian Bulaga [23]
, but I prefer Bulaga. Davis is 6'6" 325#; Bulaga 6'6" 312#. Davis has struggled with consistency and weight, and Bulaga missed three games with a thyroid. Both can play LT, and could come in right away and push Colon to RG, an immediate improvement. Both have to be considerations at 1.18. One metric for LTs is 40 time, with sub-5.0 being a good indicator, and this favors Bulaga.
But if triangle numbers are your thing, workout warrior
Bruce Campbell [26]
of Maryland will be an intriguing guy to watch at Indy. He could blow the field away. Problem is, he's only had 17 starts, so injury and experience are issues. A lot -- a
-- of draftniks think he will go top 10. I'm dubious. I'd have to consider him at 1.18 with reservations. He could be the best LT in this draft, but there are risks.
USC's Charles Brown [46]
is another LT guy who has the feet, but may not be a dominant strength type of blocker. He's only coming in at 290#, so I question his fit here. Still, someone to watch, especially if he would fall to our R2.
Jason Fox [82], 6'6" 314#,
is coming off a knee injury and had an irregular heartbeat that needs checked. He's a R1 talent who is a possible (not guaranteed) LT in the pros, after manning that spot 3 years at UM. Could be a good value pick if he checks out. IMO, a R1 talent.
Rodger Saffold [93],
6'4" 312#, was the talk of the Shrine game, and has LT potential, but I see him more as IOL at the next level. Might get drafted too early. In that same neighborhood is a guy I really like, Bulaga's bookened, Iowa's Kyle Calloway [115]. Calloway may never be a LT, but he has the legit size to man RT. Imagine getting Pouncey and Calloway and having the right side of the OL suddenly dominant, as the 6'6" 322# big man clears out the junk beside RG Colon. Calloway had a drunk driving arrest on a moped, but I'm not worried. IMO, Calloway is the best value at OT in R3 if we don't pursue a legit LT. From here out, the OTs have asterisks.
Out of my mind on Saturday night...
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Re: Grumpy bastard's 2010 mock and draft stock
Reply #4 on:
Jan 27, 2010 at 18:48 »
OT (cont.)
There is a lump of middlin' talent I am no fan of, and have as DND, given likely draft position: Selvish Capers, Zane Beadles (DND at any round), Ciron Black (fell off badly, DND at any round), Ed Wang, Sam Young (horrible, DND ever). One late round flyer candidate is Hillsdale's
Jared Veldheer [156]
, a 6'8" 321# phenom who will show well in Indy and get drafted way too early. Mocks will pump his shit way up. He may crack a 4.90 40 and throw up 30+ reps, but his technique is very raw. He'd be worth considering R6 or later. Don't buy the hype, but if you don't mind developing a guy 2-3 years, he could be a good LT prospect.
Adam Ulatoski [183]
and Cal's
Mike Tepper [204]
played LT at major programs, have good size, but project to workman RT/backups in the pros. I'd consider Ulatoski R5 and on, Tepper R6 and later.
With Kemo, Essex, Urbik, Foster, Stapleton, and Legursky all possible OGs, I'm not sure if OG is a logjam of mediocrity or a position that may not need drafted. Certainly, drafting a C and an OT, and moving Colon inside would solve a lot of problems. Imagine, from left to right: Starks, Kemo, Pouncey, Colon, Calloway.
That said, there are a fair number of players worthy of a BPA pick, and OG is not a position screaming strength as yet. Idaho's
Mike Iupati [22]
is the only legit R1 guy, and he's kilin' it in Mobile. At 6'5" 325#, with 35" arms, Iupati seems like a Colon-plus type, who can man RT, but who would knock it out as a RG. Since we already have Colon, why not draft Calloway in R3?
Another OG/OT is
Vladimir Ducasse [29]
, who's Haitian, not Russian, and who comes from UMass. He's flying up the draft boards like a rabid bat, and frankly I think he will be drafted too high. Again, he's a Colon-type, and we can draft better value by plugging in a legit RT like Calloway later.
John Asomoah [59]
hurt his shoulder and should fall as the draft comes around. I rate him a R3 value, which seems to be redundant given the fact that we drafted Urbik last year, and I don't think he can play OT. Arkansas'
Mitch Petrus [108]
is another in that same 6'4" 300# range, and as a former FB he's still growing into the role. Again, seems redundant. Mike Johnson [66] of Bama has played every OL position except C, but seems suited to OG, and is also in that same size group. Of the three, Johnson impresses me most.
Ole Miss's John Jerry [146], brother of Peria Jerry, has been showing well at Senior Bowl practices. He's a big boy, 6'5" 332#, and he's big and strong. Frankly, he may be a better OG than the previous three.
It's always fun sifting the 3-4 DEs from the DE listing, and scanning the DT lists for other possible candidates. Despite taking Ziggy Hood R1 last year, the Steelers will need a LDE of the future, as Aaron Smith has broken down two of the past three seasons. Northwestern's
Corey Wooten [33]
seems consistently ranked too high, given injuries and inconsistency. Sure, he's 6'6", 280# and can run a 4.80, but I still have him as a R3 rather than borderline R1/2 grade. Jared Odrick [31], a DT at PSU, looks every bit the part, however. He's got a great motor, and at 6'5" 301#, he would be a great future DE if we cared to spend another R1 pick on DE. I have some questions about PSU guys transitioning, but not with Odrick.
Brian Price [34]
is rumored to be a potential target. At 6'1" 300#, he seems too small, but Ziggy is about 3" shorter than Aaron Smith, so what do I know. Price is a very active DT who to my eyes looks better suited inside in the 4-3. Of similar build is Cal's
Tyson Aluala [83]
, a bit short at 6'2" 291#. I'd also say he looks better suited to the 4-3. Syracuse's Arthur Jones [94] is 6'3" 295#, or closer to Ziggy-sized, and drops due to injury considerations. He's the best run-stopper of the bunch IMO, and the best of this cluster. But call me restless, I look elsewhere. Purdue's Mike Neal [136] is a very active player, and at 6'3" 293#, fits this cluster; I suspect his value rises, and with Jones, might be the best 3-4 end, but check out the next profile.
Arkansas St.'s
Alex Carrington [96]
is a 6'5" 284# run-stopping beast. He own't excite 4-3 teams, but could be a really interesting fit here, as he looks made for the LDE part. A R4 asterisk.
East Carolina's
Joseph Linval [198]
is 6'5" 322#, and is therefore a bit lanky for NT, but could be a huge value at DE. At DE, he'd be bigger than Smith or Keisel are now, and could probably be a great late round value. A R5 asterisk, with potential to bulk for a tallish NT.
Out of my mind on Saturday night...
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Morning all, nice and sunny here, always is after a nights frost.
Thanks for the kind words Frannane, life's good today if I just try and stay in the background.
Went to a convention on Saturday with 3 other AA guys it was a real hoot!
During the day we had a wander around the town then went for a meal then off to the evening meeting where the 2 female speakers were superb but the male speaker just talked to much macho BS for me. The ladies spoke ' The Language of the Heart.'
Then after the evening meeting it's a singsong. This year ' Sweet Caroline' was the bit hit, it got 3000 alcoholics on their feet singing away, does your heart good to be part of that. One well-dressed old gentleman gave us a good laugh up singing some Rolling Stones numbers. He said ' its not that funny; I'm the same age as Mick Jagger!
Had a real good time and met some old friends and made some new ones from as far a field as London and Dublin.
Then back to my home group last night where we had a guy in for his first meeting. The poor, poor man, there are definitely some sicker than others and lest I forget there but for the grace of God go I, should I ever decide to go it alone.
Really felt for the guy, it was 19 yrs yesterday since my 1st meeting, i've not been sober since then, i had a convincer after 3 months. But i still remember that day that changed my life and all the people that were there and what they said that night like it was yesterday. Thank God for AA.
Booked myself 3 days off work this week, suns out think I'll go for a run round the lake. Which is another AA miracle, i hardly had the strenght to walk at my first meeting never mind jog. My right foot had been pinned and plated for 2 years after i broke it in half in an act of drunken revenge. But we won't got there, thanks to the power of this fellowship those days are long gone!
And to paraphrase what the convention chairman said on saturday night 'if you think AA is a competition about who was the sickest then your missing the whole point of coming here.'
Enjoying Life


text:
It is very syntethic benchmark. In reality anyone using zfs will probably use many disks probably with configuration of at least two HDD and one SSD as secondary cache and intent log.
But benchmarking such configuration is also pretty hard. Benchmark would need many hours to run, to fill cache and see difference.
Anyway nice to see benchmark of modern file systems!


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Death-penalty expert to defend bomb suspect
Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, died after a shootout with police. His younger brother, Dzhokhar, 19, sustained gunshot wounds and is being held at a prison medical facility west of Boston. He has been charged with using and conspiring to use a weapon of mass destruction resulting in death, as well as one count of malicious destruction of property by means of an explosive device resulting in death.
On Monday, a federal judge appointed prominent defense lawyer Judy Clarke to represent the wounded suspect, who could be sentenced to death if convicted.
Legal colleagues consider Clarke to be the nation's foremost expert on defending federal capital cases. She has represented numerous high-profile clients facing Death Row, including Ted Kaczynski, the Unabomber; Eric Rudolph, who admitted to the 1996 Atlanta Olympic bombing and other attacks; and Jared Lee Loughner, who pleaded guilty to killing six people and wounding 13, including then-U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, in a Tucson, Arizona, shooting spree. All of them are serving life in prison.
FBI enters suspect's widow's family home
Investigators moved forward on another front in Rhode Island, searching the family home of Tamerlan Tsarnaev's widow, Katherine Russell, for about 90 minutes on Monday.
Russell and her toddler daughter -- Tamerlan's child -- have been staying at the North Kingstown home with her parents. Her attorneys were present during the search.
Agents left the home with items that included a black case and a clear plastic bag identified as DNA samples.
A law enforcement official warned that even if Russell's DNA matches the female DNA on the pressure cooker, that does not necessarily prove she had anything to do with the preparation of the bomb. She -- or any other female -- might have come into contact with the cooker in the past.
Russell has said she was completely in the dark about her husband's alleged plan. Her attorney said the news "came as an absolute shock."
The two were married on June 21, 2010.
The double bombing near the finish line of the Boston Marathon killed three people and wounded more than 260. Twenty-three remained hospitalized on Monday. At least 14 people have needed amputations, according to medical officials.
Investigators searched a landfill in New Bedford, Massachusetts, in hopes of finding a laptop that could be relevant to the case. But the two-day effort ended without success, a U.S. law enforcement official told CNN Monday.
The FBI was following leads from Dzhokhar and others that his laptop was thrown in a dumpster and then picked up for disposal at a landfill.
The laptop might not be crucial to the investigation, the official added.
The suspects allegedly used low-grade explosives inside pressure cookers.
Investigators so far have found no evidence that the Tsarnaev brothers tested such bombs in the United States, the U.S. law enforcement official told CNN Monday.
If Tamerlan received training in making bombs, it may have come during his trip to Russia, the official said.
Sources: Russian forces kill two jihadists
Investigators are looking into whether Tsarnaev was influenced toward radicalization during a six-month visit in 2012 to Dagestan, a region known to include radical jihadists who have battled the Russian government.
Russian special forces killed two members of a jihadist group in an early morning raid this weekend in the semiautonomous republic, two Russian police sources told CNN on Monday.
Authorities have not said whether the raid was linked to the Boston bombing.
But one of those killed was an associate of Abu Dujan, the slain leader of a militant Islamist organization that produced at least one video that Tamerlan apparently posted and later removed from a social media account, according to an analysis by CNN and the SITE Intelligence Group.
'Jihad' discussed in wiretapped phone call
Russian authorities intercepted a phone call in early 2011 from one of the Tsarnaev brothers in the United States to their mother in Dagestan, an official with knowledge of the investigation told CNN over the weekend.


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GORE WINDSTOPPER fabric makes the Mammut Women's Ultimate Hoody a strong, wind resistant and breathable soft shell choice for stop-and-go aerobic use in colder conditions.
Durable, breathable and highly wind and water-resistant, the Mammut Women's Ladakh Jacket is a great option for cold weather activities like hiking and snowshoeing and is stylish enough to wear around town.
All the way back in 1862, Kaspar Tanner established the rope works factory that has evolved into Mammut, an innovative Swiss company that now specializes in mountaineering, outdoor and snow sports equipment and apparel.
Backcountry Edge is proud to be an authorized Mammut dealer.
Click here to visit the official Mammut website. (Note: you will be leaving Backcountry Edge.)


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It couldn't be easier with our 3 step returns.
As long as the item is unused, still has it's packaging & you send it back within 14 days from it arriving with you.
Step 1: Package the item up in a suitable box or postage bag (anything to keep the item safe on it's way back to us).
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When your order gets back to us you will be refunded within 2 working days (4 working days during peak business times).
Our 14 day return policy gives customers lots of time to inspect their order and make sure they are happy with every item, if not we are more than happy to refund in full.
Once Again Thank You for your order & we hope to be of service again to you soon.
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Black Ash/Black Back Black Ash/Black (iPhone not included) Black Ash/Black - front View larger Tivoli Audio Model One® BT AM/FM radio with Bluetooth® audio streaming (Black Ash/Black) Item #: 582M1BTBS 2 Reviews This item is no longer available. Original Price: $259.99 Shop all Wireless Home Speakers Need help? 1.888.955.6000 Email Chat Ask an expert advisor No pressure, no commission — just lots of good advice from our highly trained staff.
by Ralph Graves A longtime favorite just got betterTivoli took their famous Model One AM/FM table radio and added Bluetooth. So now you can enjoy your favorite radio stations and your favorite music from your smartphone or tablet. All in a simple system that simply delivers great sound.High-quality radio receptionThe Model One's super-sensitive tuner pulls in stations that elude other radios, and a special frequency-contouring circuit continually adjusts audio output, maintaining detailed sound even with a weak signal. The single 3-inch long-throw speaker delivers warm, yet clear mono sound in an expansive sound field, even when you turn up the volume.Wireless Bluetooth convenienceThe Model One BT lets you make a wireless Bluetooth connection from your smartphone, tablet or other portable player. And you're not limited to just the music stored on your device. Use your tablet to connect to your favorite online music streaming service, for example, and enjoy your own personal radio station's selections throught the Model One BT. Or stream the soundtrack from the video you're watching on your smartphone.Fine cabinet designThe Model One features a hand-crafted wooden case with a layered finish, similar to that of fine furniture. It also functions as an inert speaker cabinet, so you only get the sound of the speaker with no sonic colorations from the case. A passive port reinforces bass and mid/bass frequencies.Just the controls you needControls for the Model One BT are stripped down to the essentials: volume, AM/FM/Bluetooth, and tuning. The Model One's 5-to-1 ratio analog dial lets you "fine tune" with greater accuracy than a digital tuner. An LED light changes intensity as you tune, letting you know when the signal strength is strongest. Product Highlights:mono AM/FM radiobuilt-in AM and FM antennasstreams audio from Bluetooth-enabled devices like smartphones and tabletshigh-performance 3" long-throw driverported cabinet for enhanced bass5-to-1 ratio analog tuning dial for accurate tuningfurniture-grade hand-crafted wood cabinetminijack audio input for connecting a non-Bluetooth portable playerline-level minijack output for recordingminijack headphone outputAC power adapter8-3/8"W x 4-9/16"H x 6-15/16"Dweight: 4.1 lbs.warranty: 1 yearOur 60-day money-back guarantee
Tivoli Audio Model One® BT Written By AlanC, Lower Alabama on Monday, April 27, 2015 Crutchfield Customer Review (What's this?) It is good as a radio; tunes well, good tone quality. The Blue Tooth function is a bit weak (signal, volume)
Great radio Written By Joel S, Kinston, NC on Monday, January 14, 2013 Crutchfield Customer Review (What's this?) Excellent sound quality for a table radio. I bought it for my office and I'm thrilled with the reception, sound clarity and tuning. The Bluetooth function is amazingly easy and makes listening to podcasts and music from my iPhone very simple and practical. I wasn't sure the feature would be worth the extra money, but after a week, I don't have any regrets. I'm also pleased with Crutchfield's excellent order processing. Overall, I couldn't be happier with my radio and purchase experience.


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Bunn Overall Customer Rating:
Founded in 1957, Bunn coffee machines and coffee supplies have become iconic in restaurants and foodservice businesses around the world. Their dedication to customer satisfaction and constant innovation has earned them widespread consumer trust, making them the best name in coffee. Read more
Bunn commercial iced tea dispensers are made to be the most durable and easy to use in the business. These dispensers are common sights in almost every restaurant from quick-serve to casual because of their practicality.
Bunn commercial pourover coffee makers and brewers let you keep up with your busy hours by producing single cups, carafes, or airpots of coffee. They're perfect for any restaurant, buffet, or self-serve area.
Bunn coffee airpots are some of the best in the business for keeping your coffee hot and ready to serve while also making it conveniently accessible. These airpots are great in self-serve areas, buffets, or breakfast nooks.
Bunn disposable coffee filters give your business a reliable way to keep coffee grounds out of the final product. These filters are made of simple paper so that you can quickly and easily dispose of them after every use.
- Cappuccino / Espresso Machines
- Cappuccino / Hot Chocolate Dispensers
- Coffee and Beverage Labeling
- Coffee Condiment Organizers
- Coffee Warmers
- Commercial Coffee Grinders
- Commercial Coffee Makers / Brewers, Automatic
- Commercial Iced Tea Brewers
- Granita / Slushy Machines
- High Volume Coffee Machine Urns
- Hot Food Dispensers
- Hot Water Dispensers
- Hotel Room Coffee Makers
- Iced Coffee Dispensers
- Liquid Coffee Dispensers
- Refrigerated Beverage Dispensers
- Satellite Commercial Coffee Brewers
- Airpot Parts and Accessories
- Airpot Racks / Stands
- Coffee Machine Body Components and Hardware
- Coffee Machine Brew Funnels, Brew Baskets, and Dispenser Tips
- Coffee Machine Brew System, Mixing System, and Water Supply Parts
- Coffee Machine Controls and Electronic Components
- Coffee Machine Conversion Kits and Adapter Kits
- Coffee Machine Drip Trays
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Välkommen! | Svenska |
Explore the help topics, and if you can't find your answer or just want to say 'hi', please email us -- we'd love to help!
Yes, you can set the Task Cloud to appear on the Tasks screens in addition to the Overview screen.
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Polluted with petroleum, PCBs and dioxins, the Duwamish River also serves as traditional fishing grounds for three Northwest tribes and provides seafood for low-income and recent immigrants who live in neighboring Georgetown and South Park.
How is the cleanliness and health of the Duwamish Superfund site intertwined with the health and wellness of residents in Seattle and the Puget Sound-region? What will it take to recover? Find out at a public "Speed Dating" forum held in conjunction with the annual meeting of the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.
Five-minute "lightning talks" by a diverse panel will make for a high-energy, fast-paced event. After the speed-dating session, there will be time for informal chats and Q & A with presenters.
Presenters include:
• Steve Curwood, Host of NPR's Living on Earth Environmental Magazine
• Robert Duff, Environmental Assessment Program, Washington Dept of Ecology
• BJ Cummings, Community Health Projects Manager, Duwamish River Cleanup Coalition
• Valerie Segrest, IATP Food & Community Fellow & Muckleshoot Tribal member
• Becky Chu, Remedial Project Manager, Environmental Protection Agency
• David Eaton, Director, Center for Ecogenetics & Environmental Health
• Brian Anderson, Environmental Remediation, The Boeing Company
Mark your calendars: Thursday, April 18, 5:30 – 7:30p.m. at the Portage Bay Cafe, 391 Terry Ave N, South Lake Union. Free and open to the public, light refreshments, space limited. Sign up to reserve a spot.
Tom Reese is a Seattle photographer whose documentary photo essay about the Duwamish has been exhibited at the Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture at the University of Washington.


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Pharos Traveler GPS 127 Cell Phone Review
The smartphone space has become really competitive, especially in the past year, and it's packed with a wide variety of great devices. However, as far as GPS-enabled smartphones go, Pharos is trying to outdo the competition by including navigation software on the handset, so you're not required to sign up for a subscription-based service or rely on a cellular connection to access maps. The Pharos Traveler 127 is one of three recent models (along with the Pharos Traveler 137 and the Pharos Traveler 117) released by the company and while the Windows Mobile smartphone proved to be a reliable navigator, it takes a while to get there. The handset is extremely sluggish, and the included Smart Navigator software isn't the easiest to use. At around $530 unlocked, we'd much rather spend the money on the HTC Touch Cruise and get both accurate navigation and snappier performance.
Like the BlackBerry Tour and the HTC Snap, the Pharos Traveler 127 features a slate QWERTY design, but it's quite a bit thicker and heavier than the others at 4.5 inches tall by 2.4 inches wide by 0.6 inch thick and 5.1 ounces. The smartphone also has a boxier shape and looks more industrial rather than sexy and sleek, so it's not going to win any beauty contests. On the positive side, it's got quite a sturdy construction that looks like it can take a beating (though, of course, not recommended) and a soft-touch finish covers most of the device to give the handset extra durability.
On front, a 2.5-inch TFT touch screen occupies the top half of the smartphone. It displays 65,000 colors at a 320×240-pixel resolution, so images, text, and maps looked bright and clear. However, like a lot of phones, the display tends to wash out in sunlight and its smaller size sometimes made it hard to read street names while using the Traveler 127 as a navigation device. The user interface will be familiar to previous Windows Mobile users, though our review unit also came with a 15-day trial version of the Spb Mobile Shell, which presents more information in an attractive interface, but it can all look a bit cramped on the Traveler 127's smaller screen. It's much more useful and appealing on the Pharos Traveler 137, which has a 3.5-inch display, and in the end, we reverted back to the traditional Windows Today screen.
The Traveler 127's touch screen is responsive and registered our commands with no problem. The included stylus comes in handy since some of the menu items can be cramped. Aside from the touch screen, there are numerous controls to help you navigate the phone, including Talk and End keys, an OK button, a Start menu key, and a trackball navigator just below the display. Along the left side, there's a volume rocker and a voice recorder button while on the right, you get a shortcut to the navigation app, another OK button, and a camera activation/capture key. Note that you can reassign these controls to launch other apps or perform other tasks under Settings > Personal > Buttons. The only thing we missed was the back button, since there's no way to go up a level or return to the previous screen.
For text entry, the smartphone offers a full QWERTY keyboard with good size buttons. (You also get onscreen methods, such as a soft keyboard, Block Recognizer, and so forth.) The keys have a bit of a curved shape to them, which is better than flat keys, but they also felt a bit wobbly. Still, we didn't have any major problems typing messages. The number keys are also easy to identify since they're highlighted in white, but it was a bit annoying that you still had to hold down the function key for dialing numbers in the phone. Sure, you can use the onscreen dialpad but we've seen other smartphones automatically switch to number mode when using the keyboard so we know it's possible.
Some final pieces of the Traveler 127 include a lock/power switch and a 2.5mm headset jack on top of the device. On the bottom, there's a mini USB port and the battery cover release button. There's a microSD expansion slot on the left that's protected by an attached cap but there's no easy way to remove it so you have to take the battery cover off to access it, which is annoying. The smartphone's 2-megapixel camera is located on the back, and there's a 0.3-megapixel camera on front that you can use for self-portraits or video conferencing.
The Pharos Traveler 127 comes packaged with an AC adapter, a USB cable, a wired stereo headset, a software CD, and reference material. For more add ons, please check our cell phone accessories, ring tones, and help page.
Of course, the main attraction of the Pharos Traveler 127 is the smartphone's GPS and navigation abilities. While a good number of smartphones today include GPS radios, you often have to get a location-based service to get voice-guided turn-by-turn directions, which requires a subscription fee and a cellular connection for maps. However, with the Traveler 127, you don't have to hassle with any of this since it comes with a microSD card preloaded with Ostia Smart Navigator software so you always have access to maps.
Smart Navigator also provides voice- and text-based directions, multiple routing options, points of interest (POI) database, and a trip recorder. You can even get real-time traffic updates, gas prices, movie listings, and weather information for your location. The only notable omission is text-to-speech functionality, so you can hear specific street names rather than more generic instructions during route guidance.


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It's good for Linux and hopefully draws attention from Logitech and alike which are still to lazy or ignore open source at all.
Phoronix: Is Valve's Steam Client Bad & Damaging For Linux?
When I exclusively reported last year that Valve would be releasing their Steam client for Linux and Source Engine, most Linux desktop users and gamers were filled with joy. However, now that the Steam client is out in the wild and more and more games are coming to Linux via this digital distribution system, it seems not everyone is happy...
It's good for Linux and hopefully draws attention from Logitech and alike which are still to lazy or ignore open source at all.
No, in a word.
DRM sucks, it isn't going away. The alternative is HiB which has some pretty rough ports with no updates....
Wow, just wow. Finally, a commercial company is porting his games to Linux and some people start bashing their effort? Don't want closed-source? Then don't use it. And if you want to bash, bash all the other companies that are not even considering porting their games to Linux.
Steam is optional. If you don't like proprietary software, than don't use it. Case closed. Go play console tic-tac-toe instead and stay in your mom's basement.
Proprietary software is what GNU/Linux needs right now. We need professional a-grade games, video editors etc. Not to mention software companies like Valve are contributing a lot to drivers, tools etc... things that we would not have otherwise. Linux needs a good push in right direction, we wan't it to be 'better', don't we?
I just don't see how can a hippie in his basement develop a $1,000,000 software project by himself. Unfortunately, some software has to be proprietary to exist. It is fundamentally impossible for it to be free as freedom or even free as free beer.
Now, from perspective of end user - I want to play PROPRIETARY game, I have these options:
- Boot into Windows and suffer
- Run VM and suffer
- Go with Wine and hope it works semi-decently and suffer
- Double click in Steam and play and have good time
I think the latter option is best for everyone. Thank you Valve for your effort to make it possible.
Last edited by jan1024188; 04-07-2013 at 12:00 PM.
Is dumb moronix bad & damaging for Linux? Yes! Only on moronix we can find such childish articles which are really damaging to Linux and Valve. If someone doesn't want steam nobody forces him to install it. It's such simple, but moronix have to scream about some thread like a little baby.
The only real thing about Valve's efforts that I have a problem with is how close they are to Canonical. They could have chosen a more distro neutral approach, but instead it seems they got in bed with Shuttleworth.
The sense of entitlement that some people have is just amazing.
There is no such thing as a distro-neutral approach. The large majority of potential Linux Steam users are probably people running Ubuntu. I think this is an assessment made in advance to cater to the biggest group. In this context, one could consider Ubuntu to be 'distro-neutral'.Originally Posted by Prescience500
Furthermore, if it runs on Ubuntu it will probably even run on Gentoo without much hassle.


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Memorandum dated 12 April 1951, recording the visit of Taoiseach John A. Costello to President Seán T. Ó Ceallaigh, advising the President that Dr. Noel Browne, Minister for Health, wished to tender this resignation as a member of the government and that it should be accepted.
It is then noted that Dr. Browne visited the President to inform him that he had tendered his resignation 'but as the whole story was contained in correspondence which would be issued immediately he did not think it necessary to go into details'.
(NAI, Office of the Secretary to the President, PRES 1/P 4633)
National Archives of Ireland © 2004


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jtull7Pistolero |
Last Activity: 06-22-2014 17:08
About Me
- About jtull7
- Biography
- I am a double amputee due to a bout with the bubonic plague, but am still one of the premier pistoleros in the state.
- Location
- Santa Fe, New Mexico
- Interests
- Search and Rescue, Amateur radio, birds, travel, and, of course, handguns
- Occupation
- Retired Attorney
- Cocked, locked, and ready to rock!
Every day I face Ogden, Utah, and pray that God might bless John Moses Browning.
Outpost Member #69 I collect and shoot many fine firearms. CCW: NM, CT, and NH. N5JHT. WFR. Former LEO. SAR. Bilateral trans-tibial amputee. Survivor of bubonic plague. Tough sum-bitch.
- Cocked, locked, and ready to rock!
Contact Info
- Home Page
- http://www.johnandlucinda.com
- This Page
- http://www.glocktalk.com/forums/member.php?u=55009


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Top Definition
Edging the grass along a street curb with weed eaters, mainly the maintenance guys who do city and residential landscaping. But doing your own lawn is included.
while i was driving to work, i saw the landscape maintenance guys curb flossing.
av the_sovereign
20. august 2008
1 more definition
the act of cutting the grass back from the curb of the street (edging).
On the way to work, I saw the city guys curb flossing.
av The_Sovereign
12. august 2008


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When most people think of top-of-the-line performance air filters, K&N comes to mind. That's probably because in addition to being regarded as the world's finest filtration company, K&N performance air filters will last as long as your vehicle's engine does and are a factory replacement that can boost your horsepower output by as much as 4 horsepower. Started in 1969, K&N has garnered a reputation for engineering the world's finest filtration products for cars, trucks, SUVs, motorcycles, race vehicles, commercial vehicles and anything in-between.
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Michigan State Spartans Gear
Michigan State Spartans Hats
Summer Wear
(84 items)
Product ID: 1110431
Main Content
The talent of your Spartans shines brighter than the sun on any Michigan State game day, but don't let that beautiful sunshine obscure your view of the action! Protect your eyes and watch the game in style with the Stadium performance visor from Nike. It boasts an embroidered school logo on the crown and embroidered "Michigan State" lettering on the adjustable strap. It also features Nike's Dri-FIT technology that wicks away moisture; this visor will keep you spirited and comfortable while you're screaming for your Sparty!
- 100% Polyester fabric
- 3D embroidered logo on the crown
- Adjustable hook and loop fastener strap
- Dri-FIT technology for ultimate comfort
- Imported
- Officially licensed collegiate product
- One size fits most
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received in our warehouse.
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Customized items can be personalized with options such as your name, your favorite
number, and/or designs. Some options may be limited by league rules.


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Forum: AC Marketplace : Buy and Sell
A place to buy and sell your used aquarium equipment. Livestock also welcome, however no commercial ads please. NOTE: This section doesn't accumulate towards your post count.
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Advertise coral frags for exchange here. There is to be absolutely NO sales. Up to 4 Threads and 4 Images per member ONLY I.E 1 Coral and photo per thread. All opened threads where an exchange has not taken place will be closed after 1 month.
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