text:
This is the view of FT columnist and hedgie Gavyn Davies last week
Archive for the 'Commodities' Category
Financial markets reflect economic fundamentals this time roundIn Commodities, Currencies, Energy, Financial competency on 23/01/2015 at 12:59 pm
Worse than oil/ Do it the Pinoy wayIn Commodities on 27/12/2014 at 5:26 am
The Pinoys got it right when exporting. it exports people, not exhaustible resources. For full-year 2014, total remittances are likely to hit a record-high USD 23bn. – See more at: http://sbr.com.sg/economy/asia/philippines%E2%80%99-overseas-foreign-workers%E2%80%99-remittances-reach-79#sthash.bKDMWDaQ.dpuf
Oil crash: US hegemony at work?In Commodities, Malaysia on 21/10/2014 at 1:16 pm
Lower oil prices … Are they also a potent US weapon against Russia and Iran?
That's the conclusion drawn by New York Times columnist Thomas L Friedman, who says the US and Saudi Arabia, whether by accident or design, could be pumping Russia and Iran to brink of economic collapse.
Despite turmoil in many of the world's oil-producing countries – Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Syria – prices are hitting lows not seen in years, Friedman writes.
Rather than look at the causes, however, Friedman says to look at the result – budget shortfalls in Russia and Iran – and what it means.
Who benefits? He asks. The US wants its Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia to have more bite. Both the Saudis and the US are fighting a proxy war against Iran in Syria.
"This is business, but it also has the feel of war by other means: oil," he writes.
Btw, weak oil prices makes it more difficult for M'sia to fund its budget.
Commodity prices are close to the bottom of the cycle?In Commodities, Indonesia, Malaysia on 10/04/2014 at 4:23 am
FT reported on April 3 that traders in an annual commodities seminar are getting bullish.
And this appeared earlier this yr
GROWTH has slowed in China, the destination of most of the world's exports of iron ore, copper and other metals, as well as increasing quantities of oil and corn. Many analysts have declared that the China-driven commodities "supercycle" has run out of steam. But that may be premature. While global population growth is slowing, the number of people added each year is still increasing. Similarly, China's economy will be 65% bigger in 2014 than it was in 2008. Macquarie, a bank, reckons that the growth of global demand for steel will slip to 3.1% a year between 2012 and 2018, compared with 3.3% in the previous six-year period, but that in absolute terms it will go from 45m tonnes a year to 50m tonnes a year. The same trend will apply to copper, aluminium, nickel, lead, zinc and tin. In terms of its impact on demand, Chinese growth of 7.5% today is the equivalent to 12% growth in 2008. On top of this there is growth from other Asian economies and the recovery of the American economy. The pace of increase in commodity prices may not match that of yesteryear, but the next upward climb looks set to start in 2014. See full article.
Related article:
Materials (Sector Equity)
- The materials sector has fallen out of favour with investors in 2013, with the MSCI AC World Materials Sector index gaining just 0.3% (in SGD terms) last year.
- Similar to the situation with the global financials sector in 2008/2009, massive write-downs have been undertaken by the sector; while this has reduced net asset values of resource companies, it also makes valuations (on a PB basis) more conservative.
- As a beneficiary of a global economic recovery, we believe the conservatively valued materials sector may emerge as a "dark horse" this year.
- Our recommended fund for global resources equities: First State Glb Resources
SunT sometime back (sometime last yr) had a bullish piece. http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={27464576-17202-5110879539} Either ahead of the the curve, too early or clueless. LOL. What do you think?
If palm oil, rubber and energy cheong gd for Indonesia, M'sia and Thailand (rubber), and for some SGX counters. Think Olam, Noble and the plantation stocks for starters. And think property developers: think esp CapitaLand. Exposure here and in China.
Noble: Time to cheong?In China, Commodities on 08/04/2014 at 4:25 am
Well depends on whether COFCO will run the joint venture as a commercial entity.
The structure allows Noble to reduce its exposure to an underperforming business while sharing in any recovery. The prospect of a deal had already fuelled a 25 percent rally in Noble's shares in the past month, lifting its market value to around $6.5 billion. The proceeds could be reinvested in Noble's better-performing energy and resources businesses. And because Noble will no longer have to include the venture's $2.5 billion of net debt on its balance sheet, its headline borrowings will roughly halve, according to Eikon.
For Noble investors, the lingering worry is whether or not COFCO, which is already China's main wheat importer, will run the joint venture as a commercial entity. The involvement of China-focused private-equity group HOPU in the Noble deal offers some comfort. So does China Investment Corporation's 14 percent stake in Noble, which it has owned since 2009. If China does decide to squeeze Noble, it shouldn't do so too hard.
At a recent conference, Yusuf Alireza, the chief executive of Noble, talked business models: "None of us should be arrogant to assume one model is right and one model is wrong . . . from a Noble perspective, our core competence is in the middle part of the supply chain . . . We are not miners, we are not farmers, we are not a bank."
Temasek's Lim talks rubbish/ Olam helps African farmersIn Africa, Commodities, GIC, Political governance, Temasek on 03/04/2014 at 4:55 am
Temasek's chairman Lim Boon Heng (the chap who cried when voting for casinos) was quoted by BT on 31 March as saying, "Coming from a little island nation with no natural resources except for some granite rocks, we are not a sovereign wealth fund in the normal sense of the term," he said at a reception to mark the opening of Temasek's new European office in London last Friday.
"Instead, we invest capital accumulated from generations of hard work and commitment by everyone in Temasek and the Temasek portfolio companies," said Mr Lim in a speech at the Millennium Mayfair Hotel.
Well, I could reasonably say that he is talking rot*. It could be reasonably argued that part or most of money saved (via budget surpluses) could have been be more productively spent on making life better for S'poreans. It could have been spent on
— more hospital beds (http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/03/13/gan-says-hospital-beds-increased-by-30-really/),
— better public transport (Using back-of-the envelope calculations and figures in annual reports, since it was listed SMRT (over a decade ago) has paid S$562.79m in dividends to Temasek, and ComfortDelgro has paid the S'pore Labour Foundation (a statutory board affiliated to the NTUC) dividends of S$150.46m since 2003 (Comfort and Delgro merged in 2003, and SLF had a stake in Comfort). The amount that ended up with the government was S$713.25m, with SMRT contributing 79%. But ComfortDelgro is likely be the main beneficiary of the S$1.1bn bus plan) (Italics added at 6.55am),
— low cost public housing (remember Mah saying that lowering the cost of land cheaper was raiding the reserves https://atans1.wordpress.com/2011/04/17/what-are-in-our-reserves-a-revisit/. Link also describes how budget surpluses and the reserves are linked),
— welfare for the elderly and needy. and
— education.
The list for the productive use of govt revenue rather than to play roulette or baccarat (OK, OK invest) can go on and on.
Leading local economists (not juz a wannabe opposition politican) have made this point about better uses of govt money than squirreling it away for a rainy day that never comes**. They juz don't get reported by our constructive, nation-building media.
But maybe the govt is changing its attitude and Temasek is leading the way?
Olam is into sustainable, ecofriendly agriculture.
Sor and farmers from 36 communities in the Juabeso/Bia district are part of a project to produce climate-smart cocoa, claimed to the the world's first. The $1m, three-year pilot collaboration between Rainforest Alliance (RA), an environmental organization, and Olam International, agricultural company, offers financial incentive to the farmers.
In the wild, cocoa trees grow under taller trees, which protect them from the scorching sun. But in Ghana as in neighbouring Ivory Coast, which together account for more than half the global supply, cocoa is grown as a monoculture.
"I had a lot of trees on my farm, but I cut and burned them. I thought they brought diseases, were a nuisance and took the place of cocoa," says the mother of four, who owns a 4-acre farm in Eteso. "I didn't know about the importance of shade trees until I joined the group."
Three cheers for Olam and Temasek for helping African farmers. Next stop S'pore SMEs?
Maybe Temasek is experimenting in Africa. Next an investment in a S'pore based co that helps S'poreans? Charity begins at home.
BTW, nice to see that GIC opened an office in Brazil. About time as Latin America is becoming unfashionable among the ang mohs.
GIC opened an office yesterday in Brazil, as it looks for more investment opportunities in Latin America.
The new office – its 10th globally – will focus on areas such as real estate, healthcare, financial and business services, and natural resources and infrastructure.
"Our presence in Brazil will enable our partners to engage early and interact closely with the GIC team, which is very beneficial for complex and sizeable investments," said group chief investment officer Lim Chow Kiat.
"We believe our partners will gain from having access to GIC's global network of business contacts and market insights. Although emerging markets remain volatile, we are confident of the long-term Latin America growth story." (Yesterday's BT).
These countries need capital, now that the ang mohs no longer like the area. China is investing there, BTW.
*One of these days I'll blog why ever since Devan Nai, Lim Chee Onn and Ong Teng Cheonf, we've had clowns as NTUC leaders. Lim may have been a failure as NTUC leader (Devan Nair fixed him), he he turned out to be a gd for Keppel, for which I'm grateful.)
**I hope thyose who think the world of Ong Teng Cheong realise that he wanted to look away even the returns from reserves away from the masses. Lee Hsien Loong and co got their way on using some of the returns on govt spending.
Olam: Nomura recomends hanging on, OCBC says acceptIn Commodities on 20/03/2014 at 4:47 am
Nice to see that Nomura agrees with me on Olam, one of the world's biggest trader of coffee, rice and cashew nuts.
Nomura advised Olam shareholders to reject Temasek unit Breedens' takeover offer of S$2.23 a share, saying it believed the commodities firm was worth around S$2.50 a share.
"From a long-term perspective, we still see significant value in Olam, as various gestating assets start contributing over the next few years,"
Nomura estimates that Olam's earnings could grow by more than 20% per annum in the next three years.
It added that Temasek's emergence as Olam's majority shareholder was positive for shareholders, as this would help reduce concerns over the firm's access to funds, which is key in global supply chain businesses.
Temasek's offer price which works out to about 13.3 times estimated earnings for 2014 — was not expensive as it was in line with recent transactions in the agriculture business.
Citi Research in a note last Friday that it does not expect a high success rate for the offer, given that Olam is currently midway through working its asset portfolio towards full contribution.
OCBC recommended that investors accept the offer or sell into the market if the price there is higher
"While things are moving in the correct direction, the medium-term outlook for commodities, especially hard commodities, continues to remain quite challenging in our view … do not expect to see a competing offer for Olam."
Olam: Hang on, buy for the ride?In Africa, Commodities, Temasek on 18/03/2014 at 4:50 am
(Or "Temasek and Ho Ching haters getting more frus")
Methinks that all those posters on TRE's piece on Olam are banging their private parts real hard and crying in frustration http://www.tremeritus.com/2014/03/15/temasek-leads-consortium-to-buy-out-debt-ridden-olam/ . They missed making $ and are also upset that Temasek made gd (but peanutty ) money supporting Olam. Even those who pretend rationality while hating all things PAP ( s/o JBJ and Chris Balding?) can only sputter that if Olam is so gd, why buy now not earlier? May I suggest that they read FT's Lex (behind paywall): squeezing the shorts leh; and Breakingviews (see below).
My tots on the stock: don't tender the shares. Let's go for the ride. At worse, kanna bot out if delisted. If buying lose only "peanuts" if kanna bot out. Remember my previous tots which TRE republished late last yr?
Last chance to buy Olam?
More bull points to add to this:
– When Olam released its quarterly results in early November, it showed it had generated positive free cash flow – the first time in four years for a seasonally weak quarter.
Its executive director of finance and business development A Shekhar told analysts and reporters: "We're very pleased that we're striking the right notes on both objectives of profit growth as well as free cash-flow generation."
– Ang mohs are still sceptical about the parts of the stock's biz model.
– But they bulls on Africa and Olam got an edge there. Africa is now seen a destination mkt, not juz an exporter of commodities i.e. origination mkt:
The commodities houses are attracted to the African destination business for three reasons. First, demand is rising fast, in many cases at double-digit annual rates. Second, many African governments subsidise basic commodities such as petrol and wheat, in effect guaranteeing a return to the traders. Third, most African countries lack the infrastructure needed to import raw materials, from silos for storing wheat and rice to terminals for unloading petrol. The commodities houses say that, as they build this infrastructure, they will be able to secure a market and benefit from years of rising demand. (FT report on Africa dated 10 November 2013)
This is what the deal's all about (other than squeezing the shorts' balls, hard real hard):
The most immediate beneficiary of the buyout is Olam's creditworthiness. Despite Temasek's minority shareholding, the company has faced persistent queries about its debt load. That's particularly damaging for a trading house like Olam, which relies on the confidence of its counterparties. In future, creditors will view Olam as an extension of its sovereign parent.
My next piece of advice to those TRE readers who keep on cursing Temasek and its CEO but who end-up banging banging their balls in frustration: Go analyse SMRT.
Trmasek and Ho Ching haters should come up with new lines of attack. The world has moved on from the crisis of 2007-2009. The recovery of global markets means that post Temasek's losses on ABC Learning, Barclays and Merrill Lynch/BOA, performance has been in line with the recovery in world equity markets. Two of its dogs are dogs no more: Shin is 50% up from its purchase price (though how to exit is an issue), and go check the price of Chesapeake. And the glee over Olam has turned to tears as Olam powers ahead, giving Muddy Waters a bloody nose. Big playpen bully has met a bigger bully. True blue S'poreans and xenophobes should be cheering Ho Ching on, not cursing her. But then hatred of the PAP is often irrational.
Temasek tales: TLC overpaid?/ Olam: Cheong?/ Won't read this in TRE, TOC?In Africa, Airlines, Commodities, Temasek on 26/11/2013 at 5:54 am
Changi Airport Group: Winner's curse?
The Aeroportos do Futuro group led by Odebrecht SA, and including Singapore airport operator Changi Airport Group, offered 19 billion reais (US$8.3 billion) and won the right to run Galeao airport in Rio de Janeiro, which will host tourists for the soccer World Cup next year and the 2016 Olympic Games, for 25 years. The consortium offered nearly four times the minimum bid for the right to operate Rio's Galeão airport for the next 25 years.
We will only know the consortium overpaid if we know the next highest bid. Will let you know if this info is made public in Brazil )))
Last chance to buy Olam?
More bull points to add to this:
— When Olam released its quarterly results in early November, it showed it had generated positive free cash flow – the first time in four years for a seasonally weak quarter.
Its executive director of finance and business development A Shekhar told analysts and reporters: "We're very pleased that we're striking the right notes on both objectives of profit growth as well as free cash-flow generation."
— Ang mohs are still sceptical about the parts of the stock's biz model.
— But they bulls on Africa and Olam got an edge there. Africa is now seen a destination mkt, not juz an exporter of commodities i.e. origination mkt:
The commodities houses are attracted to the African destination business for three reasons. First, demand is rising fast, in many cases at double-digit annual rates. Second, many African governments subsidise basic commodities such as petrol and wheat, in effect guaranteeing a return to the traders. Third, most African countries lack the infrastructure needed to import raw materials, from silos for storing wheat and rice to terminals for unloading petrol. The commodities houses say that, as they build this infrastructure, they will be able to secure a market and benefit from years of rising demand. (FT report on Africa dated 10 November 2013)
Even Chris Balding flies SIA
Would the Temasek model help improve the efficiency of China's state-owned enterprises? Only one (Singapore Airlines) or possibly two (DBS bank) of Temasek's GLCs have established themselves as international brands, according to critics such as Chris Balding of Peking University*. SingTel has made successful foreign acquisitions, but other GLCs have fared less well. STATS ChipPAC, a semiconductor firm, lost money in the second quarter of this year, as a result of the costs of closing a factory in Malaysia.
The few academic studies of Singapore's GLCs are more encouraging, however. A 2004 article by Carlos Ramirez of George Mason University and Ling Hui Tan of the IMF showed that the country's GLCs enjoyed a higher market value, relative to the book value of their assets, than comparable private firms. They also generated a higher return on assets, on average.
In judging the performance of Temasek's GLCs, the counterfactual is important. They may not be as obviously successful as private titans from the region such as Samsung or LG. But they are not nearly as bad as most SOEs, including China's. The enthusiasm for reform of SOEs in China reflects their deteriorating returns and accumulating debt. According to M.K. Tang of Goldman Sachs, their return on assets was 6.5 percentage points below that of other Chinese firms in 2012 and their shares trade at a growing discount. Even Mr Balding, meanwhile, is happy to fly Singapore Airlines.
*Cock Balding forgets Keppel and SembCorp in rigbuilding. More on these two cos later this week.
Time to chk out OlamIn Commodities, Temasek on 05/11/2013 at 4:30 am
When Muddy Waters ends up saying: "My view is that if Temasek decides tomorrow that it wanted out of this investment, it would be game over within months for them, without Temasek's backstop," its research director Carson Block told BT late last week.(http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/top-stories/muddy-waters-game-over-olam-if-temasek-pulls-out-20131101), its time to think it's repenting its decision, a yr ago, to short Olam.
It's stating the obvious. Any highly leveraged smallish stock where Temasek exits from being a major shareholder would suffer. Temasek 1, MW 0.
Temasek has also since then progressively increased its ownership of Olam, from an initial 16.3 per cent before the Muddy Waters attack to 24.07 per cent now. Temasek 2, MW 0
In Mr Block's view, Temasek had stepped in because of the wider implications that an Olam collapse would have posed to the commodity-trading industry in Singapore.
"If Olam had failed, what would the banks have done with the other commodity houses that are borrowing in Singapore?" he said. "It's reasonable to assume that if the banks had to write off losses to Olam, you could have a real funding freeze for the commodity trading industry in Singapore."
This is again stating the obvious. Temasek 3, MW 0
Funny, he didn't bitch that BT continues to act as a chher leader for Olam. (http://www.cpf.gov.sg/imsavvy/infohub_article.asp?readid={904134059-19528-1412927508}) Temasek 4, MW 0
Maybe the narrative that Olam is changing doesn't fit his bearish thesis. Olam is building a packaged foods business. In countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and Mali,, where it now generates sales of US$350 million, and aims to be the Unilever or Nestle of Africa. Might be interesting. Have to chk out waz this as % of total revenue and net profits. Sadly the article doesn't give this which makes me suspicious that it's a tiny share. Still will chk, and anyway Africa is a hot market. Temasek 5, MW 0
Final bull point, Olam did stop doing some things that Muddy waters was rightly bitching about. It shows mgt is pragmatic and flexible (Temasek 6, MW 0) , unlike the PAP govt on the FT policy (Remember the White Paper?).
Interestingly, Olam is one of the cos having an open day: a great idea.
MORE listed companies with large numbers of retail shareholders are setting aside time for the management to meet investors.
In a new trend, these companies are holding a "retail investor day" as well as the mandatory annual general meeting (AGM).
Usually, retail investors get to meet and question senior management only at the AGM.
Companies which have already held "investor day" events include Olam International, Aims AMP Capital Industrial real estate investment trust and bourse operator, the Singapore Exchange (SGX).
Oh and from the first BT report, it seems Muddy is still shorting Olam, Temasek 7, MW 0.
Noble Gp: "Cheong all the way" MaybankIn China, Commodities on 11/01/2013 at 5:39 am
But if China doesn't perform, you're in trouble.
It was annced yesterday that China's commodities imports accelerated in 2012 in volume terms in spite of slowing growth in the overall economy, with crude oil, iron ore and copper reporting record high imports for 2012.
Vietnam: Game changer in coffeeIn Commodities, Vietnam on 05/01/2013 at 11:39 am
Starbucks, the world's biggest coffee-shop company, will ope nits first store in Vietnam, in Ho Chi Minh City next month.
But this is the more interesting bit: We know coffee is a national pride for many Vietnamese and as such, we look forward to contributing and growing Vietnam's already vibrant coffee industry. As we continue to source more Vietnamese high-quality, arabica coffee we want to leverage our scale to bring the best of Vietnam's coffee traditions to the rest of the world … Starbucks already purchases a notable amount of some of the highest-quality arabica coffee from Vietnam and is committed to sourcing more arabica coffee from the Vietnam region over the long-term. Starbucks will continue to promote responsible business practices and production standards within its existing and prospective supply chains and will work closely with local coffee farming communities to elevate the quality of arabica coffee and introduce customers globally to the rich Vietnamese coffee heritage.
The will work closely with local coffee farming communities is a standard Starbucks promise. But given that according to the FT, "Vietnam is the world's second largest producer of coffee beans after Brazil, any contribution Starbucks might make to improve quality and standards there could have a disproportionate impact." Most of Vietnam's production is robusta, a lower grade (and cheaper), arabica which is the coffee of choice round the world.
Again, no Asean round-up this week.
Olam: Snake bites itselfIn Accounting, Commodities, Corporate governance on 06/12/2012 at 10:00 am
Opps looks like Olam tried to be too clever by half. By calling a rights type issue but not answering two of Muddy Point's questions (that it is spending lots of $ on lousy investments and the restatements), investors have decided to sell given that there will a lot more debt, at expensive prices, a possible dilution, and that Muddy Waters might just be right.
Then there is the cred of management: saying it had lots of cash but then calling yet another bond issue. And having to retract a statement on the approach to Temasek.
In such a confused situation, investors might as well sell esp with the year end in sight.
And on a technical issue: leaving the warrants to be priced tomorrow was asking for trouble.
All in all, management and its investment banks have not covered themselves in competency.
Update: "The latest Temasek-backed transaction raises significant issues, as it is extremely expensive debt and equity capital, capital that Olam spent a week telling the market it didn't need," said Dee. "Muddy Waters is not the issue here, it is Olam's strategic and financial decisions that have brought this situation to a head."
Olam: Snake confuses mongooseIn Commodities, Corporate governance, Temasek on 04/12/2012 at 5:58 am
Olam proposed an underwritten rights issue of US$750m in principal amount of 6.75% bonds due in 2018, along with 387.4 million free detachable warrants. The issue price of the bonds will be 95% of the principal amount and the gross proceeds from the issue of the bonds are US$712.5 million. Terms of bond are generous.
Olam said the transaction was fully backed by Temasek which owns a 16% stake in the company. Temasek's commitment "is a very strong, decisive action (for investors) not to have any worries about any of the allegations," Olam's CEO said.
The issue is underwritten by four major bank creditors: Credit Suisse, DBS, HSBC and JP Morgan. Again another sign of confidence.
So Temasek and the banks are onside. Goes without saying that the Indian conglomerate controlling Olam will subscribe for its share: It would, wouldn't it?
And the shortists will have to cover their positions as investors recall their shares to make sure they get their rights.
Yr move, mongoose.
PS (at 8.50am): Gd counter by snake (must be King Cobra) to offer to pay for credit rating. Ang Moh Kaws must never underestimate Indians.
Update (1.15pm)
Olam: Mongoose bites snakeIn Commodities, Corporate governance on 03/12/2012 at 7:25 am
Muddy Waters offers to pay for Olam to get debt rating. It is a cheeky response to Olam's "shock and awe" response (constructive, nation-buildingST's description) to its allegations.
Wonder what excuse Olam will give when refusing to accept offer? After all Temasek, its investee, has a debt rating. And it is a SWF
Wonder what Olam's banks' will think if it rejects offer?
Olam: Ang Moh Kaw bitesIn Commodities, Corporate governance on 28/11/2012 at 5:21 am
It's been over a week since Muddy Waters made allegations about the accounts of Olam. Since then Olam has come out swinging, refuting the allegations and suing.
Yesterday evening, the report was made available. Most of the issues have been flagged by analysts earlier. But there are issues about the restatements of accounts that don't affect profits and capex that need addressing by Olam.
Remember Temasek owns 16% of Olam. So it too will be studying the report.
Olam: Temasek's actions keyIn Commodities, Temasek on 20/11/2012 at 1:45 pm
As Temasek is the second largest shareholder, will be interesting to see what it does. If it doesn't buy Olam shares, Olam will remain under a lot of pressure. If it does buy, TRE, TOC readers and other cowboys (esp from Facebook) will be mindlessly attacking Temasek, juz because ang moh says Olam shares are a short.
Diverging commoditiesIn Commodities on 03/11/2012 at 9:49 am
Noble's into base metals with a Latin beatIn Commodities, Energy, Logistics on 30/08/2012 at 6:41 am
The search for base metals will likely focus on major producing regions such as South America … It is also one of the few merchants still doing business in Venezuela, where the aluminum industry is in crisis.
Noble already has an array of iron ore and coal offtake deals and strength in alumina and aluminum through tolling deals. Last December, it signed a pact to supply a smelter in Azerbijan with alumina in return for aluminum output.
Stock could fly again but its up against shume big mean boys. And is the founder still active in mgt? And if so gd or bad for co?
Wilmar: Doing deals with what?In Commodities, Financial competency on 29/08/2012 at 6:26 am
(Or "Why analysts are talking rubbish" or "Bond issue coming up")
Analysts are telling Wilmar to do deals to get its share price up. Remember they have been fans of Wilmar and need the share price to recover to look gd.
This Kuok wants to do deals. Its in his blood.
But the analysts forget one thing. How is Wilmar going to finance its deals. Not thru a share issue: because as they are pointing out the shares are "super cheap". Borrowing more money ain't that easy because co has net debt of US$12.5bn on a market captalisation of US$19bn. True got gd cash flow and interest cover. But it would need brave bankers. Not many around nowadays as the irrational French frogs are nursing losses.
Err what a bond issue aimed at the retail investor? Why not call DBS? Reason: https://atans1.wordpress.com/2012/08/27/dbs-screws-its-customers-again-and-again/
If China slows down, ASEAN beneficiariesIn China, Commodities, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam on 26/06/2012 at 6:22 am
(Or "What stocks, ETFs to buy")
A China slowdown need not be bad for everyone. Mr Frederic Neumann, Regional Economist at HSBC, distinguishes between hard and soft commodities. A Chinese rebalancing could actually be good for soft commodities*, such as wheat and soybeans*, if household spending were to rise.
Brazil's loss, in other words, could be Argentina's gain. Other commodities, such as palm oil**, used in processed foods, may also do better.
That could benefit countries such as Malaysia, which has ramped up palm oil*** production in recent years, and Indonesia**** – although the latter also produces hard commodities including coal.
On the other side of the ledger, some big oil importers***** could benefit from the weaker prices that a Chinese slowdown might produce.
*Think Olam, Wilmar, Golden Agri, Bumitama Agri, Kencana Agri and First Resources
**Think Wilmar and the other SGX plantation stocks.
***Think Felda, Sime Darby, United Plantations, IOI, Genting Plt, KL Kepong, TSH, Oriental.
****Think Astra Agro and London Sumatra Indonesia. Any other Indon listed plantations cos to think about? Do remember that the SGX-listed planters are mainly Indonesian planters and many of them are relatively new, giving them an advantage over the older Malaysian plantation players. Malaysian planters have also bought land in Indonesia partly because land in Malaysia is getting too expensive even in East Malaysia.
*****Think ETFs on Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
More bad news for Noble, Olam and WilmarIn China, Commodities, Logistics on 21/05/2012 at 5:48 am
The FT reports that Chinese importers are requesting trading houses to defer shipments of commodities. Sometimes they have broken agreements by refusing to accept deliveries.
Commodities specifically mentioned are iron ore and thermal coal (Noble's specialities), cotton (Olam speciality) and soyabeans (Wilmar is world's boiggest crusher). No wonder the price of these stocks keep weakening.
BTW, until I read below, I didn't realise Noble is a big player in coffee and cocoa (but revenue is "peanuts" compared to iron ore and energy).
What a sick joke on OlamIn Commodities on 16/05/2012 at 3:12 pm
Stock has collapsed today because analysts warned of cuts to full-year estimates after the commodity trader reported disappointing earnings (Q3 net profit falls 22.5% to S$98.7 million) and warned of a weak outlook.
The sick joke is that 0ut of 24 analysts tracking Olam, 18 had a buy or strong buy rating, four rated it a hold and only two had a sell rating, according to Thomson Reuters data as of Tuesday (yesterday).
Felda's cornerstone investor: Louis DreyfusIn Commodities on 15/05/2012 at 10:34 am
Commodities group Louis Dreyfus has agreed to take a minority stake in Malaysian palm oil firm Felda, it said on Monday, conditional on a successful June stock market float for Felda. The amount could be US$150m.
Louis Dreyfus Commodities told FT it was planning to take part in the wave of consolidation among agribusinesses, unveiling a US$7bn warchest, underpinned by cashflow and the trader's first access to capital markets in its 160-year history. It is likely to raise US$500m in bonds soon.
The farm commodities trading giant, which earlier this month agreed to buy US sugar refiner Imperial Sugar for US$203m including debt, said it was to spend US$7bn building assets and buying companies, following investment of $4.9bn in the 2006-11 timespan.
It plans to move from middleman to a vertically integrated trading house: like Wilmar. Seems to be the fashion. Olam is doing this too.
Update on !7 May 2012:
Fidelity and Hong Kong-based Value Partners Group have agreed to become cornerstone investors of Felda Global Ventures Holdings' US$3.3 billion (S$4.2 billion) initial public offering (IPO) in Malaysia, the Edge daily reported yesterday, citing unnamed financial executives involved in the listing.
Other cornerstone investors include Malaysian tycoons Quek Leng Chan and Chua Ma Yu, pension fund Employees Provident Fund and state-owned asset manager Permodalan Nasional, the report cited the executives as saying.
Buffett on GoldIn Commodities, Gold on 14/02/2012 at 2:30 pm
Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce — gold's price as I write this — its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.
Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?
(Apologies for not crediting where I got this from: feeling tired)
Now this is accountabilityIn Commodities, Corporate governance, Logistics on 11/11/2011 at 5:56 am
Commodities supply chain manager Noble Group (based in HK but listed here) announced on Wednesday the resignation of its chief executive only hours after reporting a surprise US$17.5-million (S$22.5-million) net loss in the third quarter from a net profit a year earlier. It blamed volatile market conditions and mark-to-market losses.
CEO Ricardo Leiman will remain as an adviser to the group after resigning "for personal reasons", Noble said.
Chairman Richard Elman was appointed acting CEO, "We are taking this opportunity … to realign our goals and strategies to adapt to the many challenges that exist in the prevailing market conditions … It goes without saying that we are very unhappy with this performance even if it does just cover a very short period … things happen' which are out of our control … remains very healthy and strong".
What if there is stagnation?In Commodities, Economy, Investments, Property on 21/10/2011 at 6:49 am
A few days ago, I blogged that were three scenarios for the developed world. Growth — buy equities; inflation — buy property and commodities; and recession — buy government bonds.
Thinking about it again, there is a fourth scenario: stagnation. There will be shallow recoveries and recessions in quick succession.
In that scenario, one should be looking at buying equities for their dividend yields, and the corporate bonds of super blue chips.
Where be the next winner?In Commodities, Economy, Investments, Property on 17/10/2011 at 7:00 am
Depending on where the developed world heads, equities, commodities and property, or government bonds could be the investment.
There are three scenarios for the developed world (remember the BRIC and Indonesia etc still are dependent on the developed world to drive their economies). It can
— grow out of its debt burden,
— inflate the debt away, or
— fall back into recession, marked by the occasional default.
Each of those outcomes leads to a different portfolio.
Renewed growth would favour equities, but at the moment, this looks too hard to achieve. An attempt to inflate would be good for commodities and property but would be disastrous for government bonds. Selected equities might do well: those that can pass on the cost rises to customers. Those bonds would do best if the developed world goes into a recession.
Hope this explains the extreme volatility of markets.
CIMB bearish on commodity supply chain stocksIn Commodities on 12/09/2011 at 7:07 am
CIMB doesn't like commodity plays and has made negative comments abt midstream commodity supply chain players Mewah, Noble and Olam.
Not time to buy yet: Noble is trading at its eight-year historical mean, while Olam is trading at 1.5 standard deviations below its mean and Mewah is trading at 2.5 standard deviations below mean. Despite their more modest valuations, we believe it is too early to turn bullish on this sector. Consensus estimates do not appear to have fully reflected their earnings risks, in our view. Our FY12 earnings per share estimates for all three stocks are 4-46 per cent below consensus. Further downgrades by the Street may be de-rating catalysts.
Broker likes WilmarIn Commodities, Uncategorized on 21/07/2011 at 6:22 am
JPMorgan upgrades Wilmar from Neutral to Overweight. It raises target price to S$6.50 from S$5.40.
"We think Wilmar will be able to raise prices in the near term, improving both oilseeds and consumer products margin in 2H11/2012," citing recent media reports of China removing price controls on cooking oil.
Meanwhile , OCBC retains its Hold call on Wilmar.
Commodities: Clash of the titansIn Commodities on 07/05/2011 at 10:30 am
Billionaire traders offer clashing opinions over future of falling commodities market .
Soros is bearish, Paulson is bullish. Guardian story.
Falling commodity prices gd?In Commodities, Economy on 07/05/2011 at 6:39 am
Err world economy could be weakening.
Housing prices should come off unless M'sian Chinese decide to migrate here.
Glencore lists, commodities' mkts collapseIn Commodities on 06/05/2011 at 4:35 pm
As trading and mining house Glencore is listing, making some mgrs billionaires, commodity prices have fallen for a second day in early trading in Europe, led by another drop in crude oil.
This comes after markets were hit by one of the biggest sell-offs in two years on Thursday. Brent crude fell 4.3% to below $106 a barrel, adding to a 8.6% drop on Thursday, and bringing its cumulative fall over the past week to over 16%.
Industrial metals such as copper also saw further falls, as did some foodstuffs.
If this goes on, the view blogged here earlier that the Glencore IPO is a sign that commodities mkts have peaked for the time being, was a gd call.
Glencore IPO: Commodities to collapse?In Commodities on 06/04/2011 at 6:36 am
You might not have heard of Glencore. There is little news of its upcoming IPO in our MSM because the US$10bn IPO will be listed in London and HK. This would value the company at US$145bn
Co is a trader in commodities.
With oil at USD120 and demand for most commodities strong, why should this float mark the end of an uptrend in commodities? Well the US Fed is likely to stop printing money and the European Central Bank is likely to join emerging market central banks in raising interest rates. China has juz raised interest rates for the second time in four months.
Remember Blackstone? In 2007, Blackstone, a private equity firm went public at US$36. A year later, the stock was at US$5. The private equity boom had ended. It is now only recovering.
Shrewd money knows when to cash out and Glencore has some of shrewdest minds in the commodities market.
OCBC picks for 2011In Banks, Commodities, Property, Telecoms on 20/12/2010 at 5:24 am
Like other brokers, OCBC is bullish for next yr. But there are some picks that are unique to OCBC.
Our picks for 2011 are Ascott Residence Trust, Biosensors International Group, CapitaLand, DBS Group Holdings, Ezra Holdings, Genting Singapore, Hyflux, Pacific Andes Resources Development, Keppel Corporation, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Noble Group, Olam International, Sembcorp Marine, StarHub, United Overseas Bank, United Overseas Land and Venture Corp.
A worrying combinationIn Commodities, Emerging markets, Energy on 17/12/2010 at 5:35 am
A strong oil price and a strengthening US$.
Nomura: Bullish on IndonesiaIn Commodities, Energy, Indonesia on 15/12/2010 at 5:11 am
Nomura says Indonesia's fundamentals are solid. Growth is strong, inflation is muted, and the central bank aims to keep the rupiah stable. And the government aims to kick-start infrastructure projects by making land acquisition easier.
So GDP growth is expected to grow from an estimated 5.9% this year to 7% next year. Nomura sees a 15 times PE for the equity market next year, with a possible re-rating to as much as 16.5 times PE.
The firm's top stock picks in Indonesia are infrastructure providers. Commodity companies are also expected to do well. Coal prices are rising even as production volumes improve. A return to normal weather conditions will also boost Read the rest of this entry »
Global food prices: not time to panic yet!In China, Commodities on 21/11/2010 at 6:07 am
Still lower than 1980 levels as this chart shows
But big macs are getting more expensive in China. The US policy of QE2 is forcing up the real value of the yuan (via the price of gds, services and food). The more the Chinese defend the exchange rate to prevent the Yuan from appreciating in norminal terms, the more the real value of yuan rises.
The US is still the hegemon.
Time to be bullish on commodities?In Commodities on 19/11/2010 at 5:18 am
Missed the bull run and planning to use the recent weakness to jump in because China will be roaring ahead soon aftwer tackling inflation, and US monetary policy will mean that commodity prices will have to strengthen just to reflect the weakening US$.
Well sumething to think abt. The Baltic Dry index of shipping costs, which has been used as leveraged play on commodities, has been weakening for some months, even after commodity prices revived on the Fed's policy of printing more $.
Update on 20th November 2010: On Friday commodities fell, with some industrial metals and oil declining amid concerns that China's appetite as a commodities importer may wane. It had just raised banks' reserves. On Thurs commodities had recovered because investors had tot China had finished its tightening.


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White Porcelain Angel Figurine ~ D Original Germany
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James Lapine's Into the Woods comes to life as a baker and his wife, Cinderella, and Jack (of beanstalk fame) learn the real meaning of "hap…
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continued Campbell, in 16.27 seconds, was second to Altmar-Parish-Williamstown's Kylee Bartlett (15.32 seconds) in the 100-meter hurdles, and went 1:14.93 to take third place in the 400-meter hurdles.
Eighth-grader Mia Grasso earned third place in the pentathlon with 1,896 points, behind a pair of girls four years older than her, Phoenix's Haylie Virginia (2,691 points) and Westhill/Ludden's Anna Ross (2,484 points).
In field events, Megan Molnar, clearing 8 feet 6 inches, tied for the top effort in the pole vault, but finished second because Westhill/Ludden's Katherine Doherty had fewer misses. Woodruff made her way to third place in the long jump, going 15'7" to give her 34 individual points for the day.
Meanwhile, in the boys OHSL Liberty meet, Skaneateles claimed sixth place, with 49 points, as Jordan-Elbridge, with 106 points, went to the top spot and Solvay (89 points) finished second.
Patrick Biver gave the Lakers a victory in the 400 sprint, where in 51.12 seconds he beat J-E's Dylan Whittico (52.23 seconds) by more than a full second. Later, in the 200, Biver finished second in 23.32 seconds to Whittico, who won in 22.82 seconds.
But Biver was victorious once more in the 4x400, joining Jeff Kringer, James Hackler and Cooper Watt as the Lakers posted a time of 3:35.34, well clear of runner-up Solvay (3:39.42) as no one else broke the 3:40 mark.
The Lakers nearly won the 4x100 here, too, as Kringer, Tommy Hagen, Max Messie and Jacob Peterson finished in 46.78 seconds to finish second behind Institute of Technology Central, who won in 46.08 seconds.
Individually, Kringer made it to third place in the 100 sprint in 11.65 seconds, with Solvay's Nick Cometti (11.33 seconds) prevailing. Watt took fifth place in the 800 in 2:05.42.
Eli Goodell cleared 5'8" in the high jump, also getting to fifth place to go with a seventh (18'4") in the long jump, ahead of Watt in ninth place. Chase Corcoran threw the discus 106'8" and gained sixth place, with Peterson earning a seventh-place triple jump of 36'1 3/4" to just miss the points.
Scott Harrop, Steve Ciaccio, Alex Wulff and Joe Capozza were fifth in the 4x800 relay in 9:48.38. Hagen took eighth in the 110 high hurdles, while Messie was seventh in the pole vault (10 feet) and eighth in the 400 hurdles and Alex VanRiper finished eighth in the pentathlon. Chris Niebuhr was 11th in the mile.
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Mini Caped Crusader Wins His Fight Against Cancer
This toddler battled like a real-life superhero.
57 Canines Rescued From Dog Meat Farm Are Getting a New Beginning
And rightfully so!
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How Long Does It Take For Hepatitis C To Come Out In Blood
Here's a taste of what TheBody.com has to offer on this topic:
Ask the Experts
Hepatitis CHow long is Hepatitis C normally in the body before it will show up on any blood tests?
Response from Barbara McGovern, M.D.
Tufts University School of Medicine...Once hepatitis C is in your blood it can be measured by HCV RNA testing. Antibody levels usually become positive soon after - the vast majority Read more »
consequences of snorting cocaine (HEPATITIS C and SNORTING COCAINE, 2010)Hi,I snorted cocaine for the first time last weekend, using a shared dollar bill. My nose didn't... Read more »
hepatitis ci was stuck today with a needle the patient had hep C if i have blood work done how long do i have... Read more »
FAQs for the Public: Hepatitis C... Overview What is hepatitis? What is the difference between hepatitis A, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C? What is hepatitis C? Statistics How common is acute hepatitis C in the United States? How common is chronic Read more »
Sexual Transmission of Hepatitis C Happens Through Blood, Not Semen, in Gay Men With HIV, Study Says... Sexual transmission of hepatitis C (HCV) has been documented since 2000 among gay, HIV-positive men in several major cities, including Amsterdam, Berlin, London Read more »
Immune Gene May Help Predict Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Therapy... As discussed earlier, newer hepatitis C treatments are currently being studied that hopefully will not only cure more people but will also reduce its many side effects Read more »
Finally, New Jersey Informs All Inmates of Hepatitis C...mass notification prompted by a Philadelphia Inquirer investigation, New Jersey prison officials informed 421 inmates they had hepatitis C. The notification took place in the last two weeks of July, a medical audit shows. More than 1,100... Read more »
Connect With Others
Hepatitis C
Posted by hopefulindy, 1 Reply...I tested HIV- at 3.5 months post possible exposure. I have on going health issues and no answers. I am waiting on blood work to see if I have been exposed to Hep C. If someone is infected with Hep c and HIV at the same time would that slow the... Read more »
Positive for Hep C and now worried about HIV
Posted by Worrywart28, 2 Replies...she said this is normal because they have to mail that test. Still, that worries me. She also told me i tested "reactive" to Hepatitis C. My range was very low though. Anything over 1.00 is considered reactive but because mine was 1.32 she said... Read more »
cocaine hiv and hepatitis c
Posted by Anonymous, 2 Replies...LOOKED AND IT HAD BLOOD IN AND AROUND THE STRAW. I HAD A COLD SORE IN MY NOSE. THE GIRL CALLED ME ;ATER AND TOLD ME HE HAS HEPATITIS C AND HIV CALLED CDC AND THEY SAID IT COULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD I GET TESTED HAVE YOU EVER HEARD OF CATCHING HIV... Read more »
today news
Posted by nomoreworry4me...gain. [edit] Infectious diseases Blood donated in Australia has been tested for Hepatitis B since 1972, HIV-1 since 1985, Hepatitis C since 1990, HIV-2 since 1992/3, and HTLV-1 since 1993. As with other blood transfusion services, the ARCBS... Read more »
Resource Centers
Guides for People With HIV


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Examining the raging debate: risks v. benefits and parents' right to make choices about their child v. the needs of a community.
FRONTLINE reports from Iraq on the miscalculations and mistakes behind the brutal rise of ISIS.
With Yemen in chaos, a gripping report from the heart of the escalating conflict.
No one who has seen this documentary can ever forget it . One critic said it has the power "to shake the soul."
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Next the specialist gathers information on the child's ongoing behavior in
order to compare these behaviors to the symptoms and diagnostic criteria listed
in the DSM (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders). This
involves talking with the child and if possible, observing the child in class
and in other settings.
The child's teachers, past and present, are asked to rate their observations of
the child's behavior on standardized evaluation forms to compare the child's
behaviors to those of other children the same age. Of course, rating scales are
subjective--they only capture the teacher's personal perception of the child.
Even so, because teachers get to know so many children, their judgment of how a
child compares to others is usually accurate.
The specialist interviews the child's teachers, parents, and other people who
know the child well, such as school staff and baby-sitters. Parents are asked
to describe their child's behavior in a variety of situations. They may also
fill out a rating scale to indicate how severe and frequent the behaviors seem
to be.
In some cases, the child may be checked for social adjustment and mental
health. Tests of intelligence and learning achievement may be given to see if
the child has a learning disability and whether the disabilities are in all or
only certain parts of the school curriculum.
In looking at the data, the specialist pays special attention to the child's
behavior during noisy or unstructured situations, like parties, or during tasks
that require sustained attention, like reading, working math problems, or
playing a board game. Behavior during free play or while getting individual
attention is given less importance in the evaluation. In such situations, most
children with ADHD are able to control their behavior and perform well.
The specialist then pieces together a profile of the child's behavior. Which
ADHD-like behaviors listed in the DSM does the child show? How often? In what
situations? How long has the child been doing them? How old was the child when
the problem started? Are the behaviors seriously interfering with the child's
friendships, school activities, or home life? Does the child have any other
related problems? The answers to these questions help identify whether the
child's hyperactivity, impulsivity, and inattention are significant and
long-standing. If so, the child may be diagnosed with ADHD.
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The Heritage Bank completed the acquisition of two Glynn County branches of Security Bank on June 12.
Two local barber shops are at risk of losing their licenses because of unpaid citations, after a June 8 meeting of the state board of barbers.
ATLANTA - The Georgia Department of Labor reported Thursday that the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped to 9.7 percent in May, the highest rate ever recorded in Georgia. The jobless rate was up five-tenths of a percentage point from a revised 9.2 percent in April.
LUDOWICI - Ludowici Meats had its grand opening on June 6 with about 75 people on hand to join in on the fun.
Some 800 residents voted to change leadership in Coastal Electric Cooperative last week and two newcomers were welcomed to the board of directors.
Hampton Island Preserve recently put a huge dent - some $401,600 - in the $660,000 the development owes in delinquent property taxes, interest and late fees.
As part of their 2009 Better Newspaper Contest, The Georgia Press Association recognized two Coastal Courier reporters for their contributions to the field of journalism.
West Rehab Services and the Liberty County Chamber of Commerce broke ground for the new clinic that is expected to be open in the fall.
WASHINGTON (AP) - A tobacco control bill set to win Senate approval would give the federal government broad new powers to monitor and change a toxic substance that contributes to some 400,000 deaths every year.
The legislation, heading for a vote Thursday, would for the first time give the Food and Drug Administration legal authority to regulate the sale, manufacturing and marketing of tobacco products.
A La Quinta Inn will be going up on a grassy, vacant lot on Highway 84, but there are mixed reviews on what another hotel means for Liberty County.
With a $50,393 change order request on the table, Liberty County commissioners questioned why the engineering representative for a right turn lane on Islands Highway didn't plan to avoid the problem.
After Hampton Island Preserve manager Ron Leventhal vowed a lawsuit, Plum Creek was left sitting on the bank Tuesday night when Liberty County commissioners tabled a request to rezone land for the massive development.
MONROE, La. and OVERLAND PARK, Kan. - CenturyTel, Inc. and EMBARQ Corp. recently announce the selection of CenturyLink as the name of their combined company.
When a couple of local businessmen heard the Gum Branch Fire Department was having problems with its water storage system, they realized it was in their best interest to see it was fixed.
ATLANTA - As the ongoing recession leaves a growing number of people with uncertain budgets and difficult choices, Gas South is providing consumers with a payment option to help ensure the availability of affordable residential natural gas service.
While Roscoe Bartlett served as GOP congressman from Maryland for 20 years he constantly reminded people to be prepared for what seemed to be the least likely situations.
The Liberty County Chamber of Commerce recently announced the rehiring of Erin Johnson, after a brief absence, to assume the position of office manager.
Here's a little math experiment. You have $1,000 you don't need for the next year and you sock it away in an investment earning a modest .95 percent return. A year passes and you pocket $9.50 in earnings.
Where in the United States can you buy a home without breaking the bank? A new report from HSH.com, a mortgage resource company, may help you make your decision.
The tech industry needs to change its culture that has not been inviting for women, some observers say, if it wants to fill a projected growth in jobs.
I'd like to start this week's column with a one-question quiz.
Molly Maxine Merle Norman held a grand opening and ribbon cutting Feb. 25 at its new store at 122 S. Main St. in downtown Hinesville.
Jobs created by a proposed pipeline through the area and the intention of the fuel it carries were questioned at a public meeting at the Country Inn & Suites in Hinesville Thursday.
The ability to effectively communicate is critical to success in any business endeavor. Writing is one skill that, when done well, can set you apart from others. Writing is also very subjective and open to criticism based on individual writing styles and preferences.
More than a year has passed since Colorado's "Green Wednesday," when hundreds of people braved the New Year's Day cold to queue outside the state's 24 marijuana retail stores.
The permission slip for an overnight high school DECA competition in Colorado banned students from bringing illegal drugs or alcohol.
Overall, 49 percent of Americans believe that government programs designed to help the poor do more good than harm, according to new study released by the Pew Research Center.
Deepening the Savannah harbor can begin following Thursday's award of a $134.5 million contract to Great Lakes Dredge and Dock Co. of Oak Brook, Illinois, by the Army Corps of Engineers. The contract covers deepening of the outer harbor, from near Fort Pulaski for 18.5 miles into the Atlantic Ocean.
Those with hankerings for some slow-smoked barbecue ribs and briskets can get their bibs, forks and knives ready.


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Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category
California Dreamin'
Here's the view from the hotel room at the Desert Springs Resort in Palm Desert, Calif. The weather, temperatures in the 70s, certainly compares favorably with that of New York today though it should be noted that New York's winter, thus far has been relatively balmy and notable for it shirt-sleeved temperatures well into January.
Arrived in Palm Desert Sunday after a weekend in Los Angeles, my first trip to that other cultural capital of the world, and I have to say I like LA, especially Beverly Hills. Having had two breakfasts there, I can honestly say I think that Nate'n Al is the very best diner/coffee shop/deli in all America and nothing less than a national treasure. Never mind Spago, or Trader Vic's, if you haven't eaten at Nate'n Al, you haven't eaten in Beverly Hills. End of story.
Also visited Mann's Chinese Theater (originally Grauman's) in Hollywood, and snapped this detail of Leonard Nimoy's hand print with my phone.
On The Wings Of…..Me?
Web access logs are a funny thing, when you own your own domain. You get to look at a lot of interesting information, such as the domain names from which people visit your site, but also a little about how they get there.
I look at them from time to time, and occasionally find some odd things vaguely related to things I've written about and the articles I host here. There are lots of hits from people searching for information about Bungee Jumping. No surprise there. Or there's people looking for information about computer hackers. Again, no surprise there.
But three were very curious. They were Google search requests with the syntax "www.arik+air" and then another "arik+jobs+publish" and finally, "on+the+wings+of+arik".
Having explored the peculiar history of my first name, I figured I'd see where these searches led and plugged them into Google myself. It turns out there's a new twist: Arik Air is an airline.
Somewhere over the skies of the African nation of Nigeria, there are airplanes bearing the name Arik. According to its corporate history, it emerged in part from the liquidation of that nation's national airline. A local businessman, stepped up and purchased one of its aircraft for his personal use, and soon word spread and private citizens in the gas and oil industry were using his plane to fly around the country. It wasn't long before he bought another, and then a few more. I don't know where the idea for its name came from.
I'd like to forget this, if you don't mind
I get irritable at the end of the summer. It wasn't always that way. I liked the fall, liked the transition to the new season, a shot at a fresh start whether academically or at work. September always seemed like a clean slate. Now I dislike it, in no small part because of the insisten cultural pounding that always starts toward the end of August around Sept. 11. The image pictured is pretty much what I saw that day, and it seared itself into my brain as I stepped out of the subway tunnel at the 22nd St. and Park Ave. and walked west toward the Flatiron building.
This is the time of the year where people ask me "where were you when it happened?" I was underground, okay? I didn't actually see the planes hit, but I saw the buildings fall. I stopped to vote. The primary election for mayor was on that day, and I stopped as I left home, first thinking I wouldn't bother, as everyone knew that Bloomberg was going to win in the general election. Then I remembered how much I really disliked Mark Greene and figured I'd go to the trouble of voting for Alan Hevesi, not that Hevesi stood the slightest chance of winning or anything, but it seemed important at the time. If I hadn't stopped to do that, I'd have seen the whole thing, not that I would have wanted to.
I remember the subway ride was uncharacteristically slow, but nothing else about it. I wasn't terribly eager to get to the office, and it was an incredibly beautiful day, the kind of day that makes you depressed that you have to be cooped up inside doing things that seem important but really aren't.
So I got out of the subway and walked west, crossed Broadway and noticed something I can only really describe as a buzz around me. I didn't hear anything that told me something was wrong, but it was just a sense of something out of place, of people agitated for some reason, but I couldn't place it and from where I was, couldn't see anything amiss. The first clue was people looking at their wireless phones, that look that says "I'm trying to make a call but can't get through, let me look and see how my signal is." Two or three guys were doing this, and as I pressed on in the along the south side the Flatiron building a woman, walking east who seemed to know the guys walking near me, said "This is just insane."
At this point my pager went off. I reached down to grab it and looked south, at 22nd Street and Broadway. I don't remember which came first: Did I read the pager, or did I see the holes in the towers? The message was a news alert from CNN that arrived at 9:12 AM. It read: "World trade center damaged; unconfirmed reports say a plane has crashed into tower. Details to come." I could clearly see that there were two holes, one in each tower, and couldn't figure out why that would be caused by one plane. Of course by this point the second plane had already crashed into the towers ten minutes prior. CNN got around to "alerting" me to the second plane by 9:22, by which time I was already in my office.
From that location I was one of several who watched the towers come down from Jim Spanfeller's office. Someone hadn't paid the office satellite TV bill, so I and my colleagues couldn't watch TV news like the rest of the world. We didn't really need it.
That's the gist of my Sept. 11 story. I'm not terribly interested in observing the 5th anniversary of what was for me a really unpleasant day with the rest of you. Images of that day on TV make me shaky. Seeing the trailer for that Oliver Stone movie made me mad, but I was glad to see no line outside the Zeigfeld theater where that cinematic calamity happens to be playing as I walked home tonight.
I want to get over it. Its the rest of the country that insists on dredging up old video tape and pictures and survivors tales and permeating the media with it all. I don't want to weep and shed tears while watching stupid movies made by and for stupid people about it. I'd like to forget it, and frankly I wish those of you who insist on partaking in this cultural weepfest, buying special anniversary editions of magazines and watching TV documentary specials about it all would find something else to entertain yourselves. I have a better idea: Go rent "The Cruise" instead. I found a clip from that neglected 1998 documentary on Youtube, and it appears below.
On The Telly Across The Pond
The phone rang late in the morning as it often does. I expected the usual — some PR person looking for a little attention for a client. It was a PR person, but was actually one who worked for my own outfit fielding a request from an outside outfit needing some comment on the latest corporate happenings at a certain computer company. A TV news crew wanted to chat with me on camera.
"Great," I said. "When do they need me?"
"They're setting up now. Can you be down in five minutes or so?" was the answer on the other end of the line.
So that's how I happened to appear on "the telly" in London and throughout the UK last night.
I've appeared on BBC TV a few times over the years, most recently in a live shot from its studios on the West Side of Manhattan, but almost never been able to see the segments. This week's slot on the World Business Report was a little different, as the network streams the show online in Real Video format. But what it doesn't let you do is save the file as it streams to your computer. So how did I get the video above? Well it was a bit of a hack….
This turned out to be an excuse to try a new program I just learned about called Display Eater which captured the video, sort of. What it appears to have done is capture a long string of still images, which it then converts to a Quicktime video clip.
I thought this was all well and good, until when I played the resulting Quicktime clip and learned that Display Eater doesn't record audio. Here, the solution was to turn to my favorite, app, Rogue Amoeba's Audio Hijack Pro which saved the audio stream of my segment into MP3 format.
Armed with a silent video clip and an MP3 sound file of the segment, I poured both into iMove HD, which would have seemed to be a straightforward operation. All I had to do, it seemed was synchronize the sound file and the video file as best I could. Simple right? Wrong.
As interesting and potentially useful as Display Eater is, it doesn't come close to capturing the full video stream, but more an approximation of it. The result I had was a video clip that was not only out of sync with the audio, but actually shorter than the audio clip that accompanied it.
So at least now you know why the audio and the video are not synced up right.
One interesting bit of trivia about this clip: Steve Jobs appears once late in the segment giving one of the keynotes for which he is famous. But he actually appears twice, though its kind of hard to spot him. Can you guess where it is?
So what's my problem anyway?
Silent in this space now these 71 days. It's not as if I've had nothing to say, rather that I've been saying it elsewhere, where my words pay my bills.
This is of course the curse of blogging. In order to make it seem worthwhile you have to feed the beast regularly. This of course takes effort and time, the latter of which is in critically short supply these days it seems.
The onset of summer hasn't done much for my time budgeting. Perhaps better calendar management will help. I'm somewhat encouraged by what I see of the new Google Calendar service. It seems that with a little outside help, it will sync up with the Outlook calendar on the Windows machine at the office, and thus bridge the gap with the iCal calendar on the Mac, all the while creating a long-term record of where I go and what I do.
Will this magically create some kind of quantum singularity through which I can pull additional time which I can use for writing pointless screeds here? Certainly not.
The key is to simply waste less time, though one could argue that blogging is itself a waste of time. There certainly appear to be a lot of people with opinions on that very subject.
I have been at times variously inventive and not with how I've been wasting my time these 71 days. There have been a few too many hours playing "Command and Conquer: Generals", another set of lost hours downloading Van Morrison and John Lee Hooker concerts (see sample below) from Dimeadozen and trading them with the folks on the Vantrades mailing list.
Intermittently I've devoted some hours to raising money for the Columbia's J-School Annual Fund, an effort to which I have committed five years of my life.
But mostly the hours are tied up with the job. Its as simple as that. It's now been almost a year since the big change and there hasn't been a single nanosecond of regret or second-guessing. I guess that, coupled with the lack of personally blogging, combine to be a pretty good sign.
Enough about that. Here's a shot of Hooker from '76.


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5 Ways to celebrate Earth Hour in Cape Town and Surrounds
Rob PetersOn Saturday 28 March homes and businesses across the world will switch off their lights for an hour in support of Earth Hour. All across Cape Town, locals will lend their support by flicking the switch between 8.30pm and 9.30pm – here are 5 ways to celebrate Earth Hour in the Mother City.
Your #lovecapetown weekend: What's on from Friday 13 March to Sunday 15 March, 2015
Rob PetersIf you haven't got tickets to Jazz Fest this weekend, not to worry, there is plenty happening in Cape Town to keep you busy!
One Direction is coming to Cape Town and we have tickets!We have tickets to One Direction to give away!
Eggciting Easter activities in Cape Town
Kelly LodewyksThere are so many things to do in Cape Town this Easter. Everything from special lunches to Easter Egg hunts for the kids. Here's how to make the most of this holiday in Cape Town.
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Beyond #LoveCapeTown: Popping out to Paternoster
I'm a big fan of Cape Town. I've had the luxury of living in a few other cities so I feel I can make a fair comparison, but every so often I need to get out of the Mother City. Recently, I picked Paternoster as my weekend destination, and before my girlfriend even had time to say "It's the weekend!", we were off.
Tourist in My Own City: The V&A Waterfront Dine-About
Living in Cape Town, I've always used the V&A Waterfront as a quick shopping stop - a meal, groceries, new shirts, etc. Thus when I was recently invited to a dine-about at three of the Waterfront's top restaurants, I leapt at the opportunity to try something a little different, and a lot more fun.
Winelands with a twist
I have an obsession with doing things differently, which normally makes me really annoying to travel with, but occasionally I find something really cool, like my long weekend in the Robertson Winelands with my girlfriend.


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As Avengers proves, Marvel has successfully adapted their tales into big screen ventures. But if there's one thing that's unclear about the future installments of the individual franchises, it's subtitles. Iron Man 2 isn't exactly the most exciting name for a thrilling action movie. So what does Marvel has in store with Thor 2 and Captain America 2. Thankfully, a slightly wordier moniker.
Thor 2 will now be called Thor: The Dark World. Mysterious, but alluding the rumors that the film will venture into other fantastical lands outside Earth or Asgard. Captain America 2 gets an even bigger title reveal: Captain America: The Winter Soldier. For comic fans, that's huge news. In the comics, Bucky Barnes, Captain America's sidekick played by Sebastian Stan in the first film, "died" and went on to be brainwashed by Russians into an assassin named "Winter Soldier." Based on the title, expect the former good guy to be the film's main villain!
Follow Matt Patches on Twitter @misterpatches
Chris Hemsworth Talks 'Avengers', 'Thor' Sequel, and More!
'Iron Man 3' and 'Thor 2' Cast Villains
Catch Up on all of Hollywood.com's Comic-Con Coverage!
[Photo Credit: Marvel Studios]


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I'm just curious people don't mind sharing :)
Pregnant with my first baby at 32
How old is everyone?
Posted 10/18/2013
Baby #2 at 24 almost 6 yrs apart
Posted 10/18/2013
I am 24, pregnant with #2 and will be 25 when he/she is born :)
Mama to some wild boys
Mama to some wild boys
Posted 10/18/2013
28 with # 2 my bday is in 15 days so we'll both be 29
Posted 10/18/2013
31 wit baby #5!!! :)
Posted 10/18/2013
23 baby number 2 for me
Posted 10/18/2013
33 with our first! Will be 34 at delivery.
Me (34) + DH (35)
Married November 2011
Baby #1 - It's a GIRL! Claire Marie due June, 29 2014!
Posted 10/18/2013
Just turned 24 #1 for us
Mommy to Harvey Fischer Wife to my loving Husband
Also snickers_amj_89
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Your growing child
Your 9-month-old: Week 1
Because of separation anxiety, this can be a tough time to be away from your baby for any length of time. But it may also be hard to travel with your baby right now. He's become used to his surroundings and familiar faces, and he likes predictability. Read More
Your 9-month-old: Week 2
By this week, your baby will start to remember more specific information, such as where her toys are in your home. She'll also be able to imitate actions she's seen as long as a week before. Read More
Your 9-month-old: Week 3
The torrent of words your baby has been hearing since birth is beginning to work its magic, although his understanding of words far outpaces his ability to use them. His babbling has turned to jabber and is probably... Read More
Your 9-month-old: Week 4
Your baby's personality is really emerging now. She may be very social, granting broad smiles to everyone she meets, or a little more shy, hiding her face when well-meaning strangers try to engage her. Read More