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need 3 or 4 week menu plan!
I am a full time english teacher with TONS of marking to do and with 3 big hungry guys to keep fed! (2 teens and a husband), not to mention the constant traffic of other teens arriving on short notice. We are ordering take-out way too much and it really challenges the budget, not to mention our health. My drained energy level and my A.D.D. do not help matters. I can't seem to even remember to take something out of the freezer. I am hoping that some of you amazingly organized people out there can help me by sharing your meal plan with me. I'm not looking for strategies, so much as a specific plan I can just run with. Has anyone got a plan, complete with shopping list and recipes? I truly appreciate your help!
I'm assuming you've checked out some of the Once-A-Month cooking sites? Sounds like that system would work well for you!
Here's a couple of specific menu plans I've come across:
(Can't seem to make more than one clickable link at a time!)
Here is a link that might be useful: Hamburger plan
Here's another one.
Here is a link that might be useful: Chicken Plan
For vegetarians, even!
Here is a link that might be useful: Veggie Plan
Leanne Ely is one of the most well know dinner divas. She has complete plans and shopping lists.
Hillbilly housewife is focused on saving money, but she has good ideas.
I've looked at Menus for Moms before. It's free, but I'm not sure of a shopping list.
This blog has a couple of hundred women listing their Monday meal plans. I've got to go back and check that.
http://orgjunkie.blogspot.com/ scroll down towards the bottom of the page.
I haven't tried this one, but she does have shopping lists with her menus.
I've tried saving dinner and my family just didn't like her meals. What seems to have worked best for us is to sit down and come up with a list of as many meals that we can think of that we like. Kind of divide them up according to type and effort, then create a few plans and grocery lists.
this is a nice site with familiar food, menus and a shopping list.
Here is a link that might be useful: Kraft dinner menus
A real LIFESAVER I've found, is the Women's Day Month of Menu's. It gives you the meal suggestion, as well as side dishes to go with each menu. You can print off a weekly grocery list too. I've been printing them off and putting them in sheet protectors in a binder. Ones we love, we circle and I switch to fix these when the main idea for the menu that day isn't our favorite. Hope this link helps you!
Here is a link that might be useful: WD Month-of-menus
Draft the hungry teens for cooking/shopping duty.
Yeah, you will probably spend more time initially teaching them what to do. But it's experience they need. Not just knowing how to cook or how to shop, but the experience of stepping up when the household needs them.
I just got a book out of the library that addresses your challenge. It's called Fix, Freeze, Feast. Basically it's bulk cooking but everything is freezable and the recipes are large so they cover a few meals. You may not have enough freezer room though!:)
Here is a link that might be useful: Link to book


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$2M Moreno Valley Overpass On Indefinite Hold Due To Birds Nests
Part of the Theodore Street Overpass in Moreno Valley needs to be demolished following a big-rig accident back in January.
Proposal Would Ease Carpool Lane Rules On 134, 210 Freeways
If you've ever been alone in your car and wanted to sneak into the carpool lane, there's now a proposal to allow you to legally do just that — outside of rush hour —on two of the Southland's busiest freeways.
Pile-Driving Project To Impact 5 Freeway In Southern Orange County
Commuters and area residents who use the 5 Freeway to travel south to San Diego might be facing some headaches — from a noisy Caltrans pile-driving operation and the resulting traffic — in southern Orange County over the next three weeks.
Caltrans Workers To Remove Unstable Rocks Along Hillside Of Closed Portion Of PCH
Caltrans workers Tuesday will rappel down a hillside along a closed section of the Pacific Coast Highway to remove loose rocks.
Slippery Substance Causes Sticky Mess On 101 Freeway
An unknown slippery substance led to numerous crashes and a lot of stuck cars on the 101 Freeway at the 405 on Sunday morning.
Carpool Lane Work Will Close 5, 170 Freeways Near Burbank Airport
Drivers will need to find an alternate route north of Burbank Airport late Monday night as CalTrans continues work on the northbound carpool lane into the early hours of Tuesday.
Ortega Highway Reopens After Rock Slide
The main road between Orange County and southwest Riverside County has reopened after workers cleared a rock slide that brought boulders onto the road.
Stretch Of PCH Shut By Mudslides May Reopen Thursday
A nine-mile stretch of Pacific Coast Highway could reopen Thursday, days after three mudslides forced its closure.
PCH Closed Indefinitely Due To Mud Slide, Storm
Caltrans has closed a 9-mile stretch of Pacific Coast Highway through Ventura County for a third straight day as another storm system moves through the area.
Changes Coming To Orange County Carpool Lanes
A major change is coming to the car pool lanes in Orange County.
Caltrans To Close 5 Freeway In Santa Fe Springs At Intervals For Weekend Work
The Golden State (5) Freeway in Santa Fe Springs will be shut down at intervals over the weekend as part of a project to add lanes to the roadway and reconfigure the Alondra Boulevard bridge.
Work To Restrict PCH In East Malibu On Monday
Work is slated Monday to shore up a rocky bluff near Pacific Coast Highway that was eroded by high surf that also damaged the Malibu pier earlier this month.
55-Hour 'Cajon Crawl' Closures To Begin Friday
Crews will begin a series of 55-hour weekend lane closures in the Cajon Pass Friday, known as the "Cajon Crawl".
Caltrans To Spend $10M On Bridge That Will Allow Mountain Lions To Cross 101 Freeway
Caltrans will build a $10 million bridge spanning the 101 Freeway allowing mountain lions and other wild animals access across the busy roadway.
Caltrans Proposes Toll Lanes On 405 Freeway In Orange County
State transportation officials want to install toll lanes on a notoriously congested section of Interstate 405 in Orange County, but local officials aren't happy.

subset: commoncrawl


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Sketchup for Residence
Closed - This job posting has been filled and work has been completed.
Job Description
Unfortunately we had a house fire and I need to do a number of design/redesign projects. I've attached a PDF with a floorplan.
I will want a sketchup of a couple of configurations on each floor
This project should last for a few months with more work upfront and some minor changes down the line.
Skills: pdf


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FYI Winter 2014-15
FYI: For Your Investments. Winter 2014-15
In brief
2014 was an eventful year. It included geo-political shocks, such as the Russian invasion of Crimea, the collapse of the oil price by almost 50%, the Argentinean technical default and very recently the second potential meltdown of Greece.
Fortunately the situation in the UK has been better, with the economy growing at around 3% and the decision of scotland to stay in the UK. In this context, our strategies have been able to benefit from the performance of the bond market, although we did not fully anticipate the rally of long term gilts. Our allocation on equities has also been globally positive, especially in the us which was certainly one of our best calls for the year. In a low yield environment, our Balanced Income Plus strategy, focusing on income, has also been very successful.
Looking forward, we think that the environment will continue to be supportive for investors. The US economy should carry on growing at around 3% to 3.5% next year and China will only decelerate at a modest pace with 6.8% growth anticipated for 2015. We believe central banks policy will remain accommodative, although we might see a gradual adjustment in the US. The weakest link for this year will come from the Eurozone and some emerging countries, especially in South America.
With the volatily levels normalising in 2015, investors who want take advantage of opportunities should be prepared to see significant price swings, inherent to listed investments, and hold their nerve when they occur.
On behalf of the investment team and all of us at SGPB Hambros, I would take this opportunity to wish you a very happy and prosperous year.
Inside track
At the end of 1985, Saudi Arabia launched a price war in the oil market. The price of West texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from $31.82 on 20 november 1985 to $9.75 on 1 April 1986 – a decline of almost 70%. What led them to this course of action?
In 1985 the Soviet Union became the world's largest oil producer; there were multiple reports of cheating on quotas by Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members; and the Saudis were supporting the Iraqis in the Iran Iraq war. Then, and now, Saudi Arabia was the world's low cost producer of oil so the price war protected it's market position, disciplined other OPEC members and undermined Iranian finances.
This year, thanks to the remarkable developments in extracting shale oil, the United States has become the world's largest oil producer. there has been surprising strength in oil supply from countries like Libya, Nigeria and Iraq and there is a new and more complex version of the Sunni Shia struggle being played out in Iraq and Syria. Once again, Saudi Arabia launched a price war making pretty clear that the aim was to protect it's market share. The similarities between 1986 and today are reasonably clear as is the Saudi response. To date, the price of WYI has fallen below $60, a fall of over 40% and recent comment suggests that the long term equilibrium price is likely to be around this level. How realistic is this expectation?
For the 5 December 2014 issue of the Economist, the cover title was "Sheikhs v Shale". there is a fairly widespread assumption that the shale producers have break-even costs somewhere above $60 a barrel and are therefore likely to be amongst the prominent victims of the price war. Interestingly, the producers in north Dakota and Texas do not seem to have read the memo as us oil production to early December was still shooting up, despite 6 months of falling prices.
Why no supply response, yet, in complete contrast to producer behaviour in 1986? We believe there are several reasons. the first reason is that very low interest rates have reduced the cost of debt capital for the exploration and production companies which have driven the boom. Marginal businesses slash all other costs to focus on producing enough oil revenue to cover the funding costs. this will probably persist for rather longer than most of us would think reasonable.
Secondly, we should not underestimate the speed of the technological revolution in shale production. In November 2014, the Energy Information Administration published a report showing that oil well productivity in the Permian region of texas had been running at 1.5% a month for over a year. This is the equivalent of the breakeven cost of production of oil falling at a rate of a dollar a month. This sort of rate of improvement is often claimed (and sometimes believed) in the technology industry; to see it in a business which is over 150 years old is a really eye-catching achievement.
Thirdly, some oil producers have hedged a lot of future production. Concho Resources, for example, have hedged a substantial portion of 2015 production and perhaps half of 2016 production.
Lastly, outside the United States there are many producing countries such as Venezuela or Libya who need the oil receipts and will no doubt try to hold up or even increase production to try to maintain the flow of dollars.
How long can Saudi Arabia finance a price war? In October 2014, Saudi Arabia's foreign currency reserves were reported to be almost $750 billion – roughly the size of their own economy – while debt levels are minimal. they are in a position to pursue the price war for a long time to come.
With neither side seemingly yet ready to shift their position, it seems reasonable to expect that the oil bear market will last a long time and will see prices fall much further. In early December the Energy Information Administration revised its expectation for the growth in oil demand in 2015 from an increase of 1.12 million barrels a day to 880,000 barrels a day. It is only a small drop, but it illustrates how hard it will be and how long it might take to get the oil market back into some sort of balance.
At some time in 2015 it is likely that we will start to see some production cuts – marginal producers in marginal shale fields will no doubt be part of this process – but more obvious candidates are those working in hostile environments far from markets: deep offshore and the Arctic production looks vulnerable to cut backs. Companies servicing and providing equipment for that production are likely to experience difficult trading for some years to come. More broadly, the distress in some countries which are large producers is already obvious.
Deep recessions and large devaluations will be a part of their economic life for years to come. Unexpected losers from the process will probably include financial companies who turned out to be the ultimate counterparts of the hedging transactions taken out by oil producers.
The obvious beneficiaries are consumers and oil importing countries. Those benefits will probably flow through over the next 2 or 3 years. Lower inflation rates should mean that interest rates in, for example, Britain and America rise less than looked probable 6 months ago. Reduced spending on energy should free up consumer demand for all sorts of other products and services. In the 1980s, lower energy prices underpinned the expansion in the second half of the decade which only came to an end with rises in interest rates in 1990 in Japan, as they sought to burst the property and equity market bubbles, and in Germany post reunification, and in the United States, which ultimately triggered the crisis in the Savings and Loan industry. If history is any guide the fall in the oil price is likely to provide a favourable backdrop for the economy and securities markets for some time to come. It also, however, suggests that success will ultimately lead to excess so all of us should be on alert for the warning signs that the favourable trend is deteriorating.
And the oil price? Apart from a brief spike up during the First Gulf War it stayed between 10 and 25 dollars a barrel until the end of the century. This time, who knows, but a long period of subdued prices looks likely to lie ahead.
United Kingdom
The UK equity market has been buffeted by mixed domestic data, but more so by the dramatic fall in oil prices, continued weakness in the Eurozone and concerns over the timing of a rise in US interest rates. It is no surprise to find then that the energy and materials sectors have been the weakest performers, whilst the transportation companies have been one of the main beneficiaries. Whilst the equity market is not particularly cheap in absolute terms, it looks attractive compared to other asset classes.
In company news, BT is in talks to buy EE or O2 in a deal that is seen positively by the market as it would make it the largest UK phone carrier with both landline and wireless services to complement its broadband and TV offering.
On the economic front, the Bank of England's last inflation report was more dovish than expected as it lowered inflation estimates to below 1% over several months and also reduced the outlook for UK gross domestic product (GDP). The property sector, which has shown signs of cooling in recent months, received yet another boost in early December ahead of an election after the Chancellor announced a reform to stamp duty rates.
United States
In a normal cycle, the Federal Reserve (Fed) would have been expected to raise its key interest rate some time ago. However this time round in the US, given the weakness and uncertainty, the Fed has been keen to ensure that rate rises would not choke off any nascent recovery, and opted to remain behind the curve in tightening; this appears to have now finally paid off. Growth numbers in the third quarter have virtually confirmed the US recovery to be in full flow, negating the very weak start to the year attributed to cold weather. With growth running at an annualised rate of well over 3% and importantly unemployment is also below its long-run average.
This recovery has been spurred on over the last three months with the strengthening of the US dollar corresponding to the weakening in commodity prices, in particular to the oil price. Falling gasoline prices act rather like a direct tax cut to the us consumer and spur both consumer sentiment and spending.
This has been supportive for the consumer sectors in the US, along with the energy heavy transportation and industrial sectors, while energy companies have been hit hard as projections for the nadir in the oil price are being revised down.
The last quarter was again volatile for European markets. Investors had to navigate a raft of significant news; weaker economic data and a deteriorating outlook for recovery on the one hand, set against another flood of global liquidity, growing expectation of European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE), a weaker euro and the falling oil price on the other. For now, investors seem prepared to see the glass as half full.
Further Japanese QE kicked off a recovery across most major markets, but it is speculation about the ECB's response to this move that has arguably provided most support to European equities. It is clear a weaker euro would be welcomed by most European exporters and the sharp fall in the oil price (though muted by currency) can only help. Further weak German data, auguring economic contraction, may offer the ECB their best chance to gain consensus for looser monetary policy.
Without a clear valuation case, and with reservations about the ability of the EU to transmit looser monetary policy into the real economy, we remain cautious near term. We prefer to own those internationally diversified companies that benefit from the weaker euro, and consumer-related stocks that should benefit from the lower oil price and the attendant increase in disposable income.
Despite entering a technical recession, the Japanese market was amongst the best performing ones in the quarter. Prime Minister Abe continued the quest for reform with the calling of a snap election in December to cement a second term in office and ensure no loss in economic and policy momentum. This was taken positively by investors who pushed up the equity market and sold down the yen. Despite a disappointing contraction in GDP, investors focused on the approaching restart of 48 nuclear reactors, the continuing weakening of the yen and the fall in oil prices as being considerable tailwinds for Japan. Falling commodity prices lead to oil and mining stocks lagging whilst transport and chemical sectors gained. Japan has been one of the stronger markets this year, but investors have needed to be currency-hedged as otherwise the weakness in the yen would have offset the impact of rising share prices.
Emerging Markets
We entered 2014 with a cautious view on global emerging markets, concerned on how the end of US QE would impact on the weaker emerging market (EM) economies, potential outflows of capital from these countries and weakening currencies. We also highlighted the disparity between the stronger and weaker economies within the emerging market universe.
As the year progressed we did indeed see a big disparity in performance between countries and regions, and some steep currency depreciation in the weaker countries. In general, the Asia Pacific region has performed well, led by India and China, whilst Latin America and russia have been weak.
What has changed during the year? Too much to list, but perhaps the most significant changes are the steep decline in the crude oil price and the end of US QE.
Markets have survived the end of US QE, but not without some weakness and were buffered by the almost simultaneous launch of the Japanese QE programme – with further expectations of stimulus from the ECB.
A sustained lower crude oil price will bring huge disparities between the countries which produce and export oil (Russia, Brazil) and those which import (India, and in fact most Asian emerging countries). For the importers, lower oil represents a stimulus to growth, and an improvement in trade balances. It will also contribute to lower inflation, perhaps allowing Governments to ease monetary policy. For oil exporters, balancing the budget will become painful, more so for those with weak foreign currency reserves.
Entering 2015, we continue to favour Asia and remain cautious on Latin America and the EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region.
The strength of bond markets continued to surprise commentators in the fourth quarter as the yield on gilts fell again. Falling oil prices, stagnation in Europe and slowing growth in China have reduced inflation expectations which are already weak.
Although yields are much lower than the start of the quarter, it has not been a one-way ticket. Any data which questions a us or UK recovery, yields fall and data which allays economic concerns, yields rise. At the beginning of October, US inflation dropped surprisingly and the UK 10-year yield dropped from 2.4% to under 2%. However, US jobless claims posted a sharp fall in mid-October and the 10-year yield was soon back over 2.2%. In November the falling yield trend resumed after the quarterly Bank of England (BoE) Inflation report proved dovish. All told, this suggests that there is little need to tighten policy in the near future.
It has been a similar trend in other "safe-haven" government bonds. Expectations of further ECB action and non-existent inflation across Europe, saw the 10-year German Bund yield drop to 0.7%. As the hunt for income continues, the yield pick up available on peripheral Europe sovereign debt is proving attractive. Both Italian and Spanish yields fell with Spain's 10-year debt below 2%.
Next year monetary policy should continue to diverge between the US and the rest of the world. The market consensus is for a first rate hike in mid 2015. However, there is much disagreement on the pace at which rates will rise. With the ECB looking likely to open the coffers again next year, it will certainly make 2015 very interesting.
The US dollar strength has been persistent, partly aided by improving domestic economic data, but largely due to co-ordinated large-scale easing measures by Japanese and Eurozone central banks.
The yen experienced renewed weakness after the bank of Japan (BoJ) unexpectedly expanded its asset purchase programme to Y80 trillion from Y60-Y70 trillion, as the 2% inflation target was at risk given sluggish inflation readings. In December USD/JPY went through Y120, a level not seen since 2007 and incredibly, nearly 60% weaker since 2012.
For the euro, the ECB is under pressure to enact full blown QE as deflationary pressures persist. This will weigh on the currency and despite a 10% decline in the EUR/USD rate, from 1.38 to 1.23 between June and December, we expect further downward pressure. We target 1.17 over the next 6 months.
After a short-lived relief rally following the Scottish referendum, the sterling has turned down again. Market expectations of the first BoE rate hike have been pushed back. Weak inflation readings may explain the sterling's current lack of legs, as the central bank is not under pressure to tighten soon. Elevated twin deficits carry further downside risk for the pound in the year ahead, but for the time being we anticipate a period of stability.
The headlines have been taken over with news of the falling oil price. Having started the quarter at $89 per barrel and continued to decline, the rapid fall in prices has markedly affected global markets performance and shaped their future also. With OPEC not looking to cut supply we suspect the price has further to fall creating winners in the transport sector and further losses in the energy sector. Oil export countries are likely to feel the pinch, whereas net importers such as the US, China, Japan, India and South Korea should feel the benefits.
The multi-year downtrend in gold should continue during 2015 once the Fed adopts a more hawkish tone and the market starts pricing in a faster pace of rate hikes. Added to lower inflation expectations from a cheap cost of energy, gold is likely to be a loser next year.
Base metals prices have held up remarkably well this year despite the weak performance of many other commodity prices and despite the ongoing slowing of the Chinese economy. Aluminium was helped by production problems and nickel, zinc, lead and tin prices have been underpinned by expectations of future supply constraints.
The most striking feature of the last quarter was the rapid fall in the oil price. This led to lower inflation expectations and a continuation of the bond market's recent strength. Equity markets have reacted more nervously, interpreting it as a sign of weak growth, although part of the story is clearly one of growing supply. The FTSE 100 has been particularly held back by a high weight in energy companies. Overall, benchmarks with a high bond content have continued to show strong returns, but equity-focused benchmarks have struggled.
The data for the final month, December 2014, covers the period up to the 11 December and will not agree with valuations which will be based on data for the full month.
SGPB Hambros calculates composite benchmarks appropriate for different investor objectives, based upon MSCI Equity indices, Bloomberg/EFTAS Bond Indices, Overnight Libor cash rates and HFRX Global Hedge fund indices. The proportions vary according to strategy and are available on request.
Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance. Indices are for guidance purposes only.
Investments may be subject to market fluctuations and the price and value of investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. Your capital may be at risk and you may not get back the amount you invest.
All information is based on current tax legislation, which can change. SGPB Hambros Group does not provide tax advice. the level of taxation depends on individual circumstances and such levels and bases of taxation can change. You should seek professional advice in order to understand any applicable tax consequences.
From the start of 2015 we will be using revised benchmarks for the core GBP strategies. The changes will not change the risk profiles of the strategies or benchmarks. The new breakdowns are shown below:
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– Shares of this fund carry no guarantee of capital, which, under certain circumstances, may lead to the loss of your entire investment;
– The investment management methodology implies a degree of risk linked, among other factors, to the use of derivatives, leverage and short selling;
– This product caters, therefore, for customers with the experience required to assess the risks inherent in such complex products;
– The terms and conditions applicable to redemption may continue to expose you to risk during the period between the redemption request and execution (usually prior notice of 45 calendar days before the last business day of the end of each quarter is required but can be longer for some investments).
Some funds are subject to extended redemption periods or a restriction is placed on the amount of withdrawals from the fund during a redemption period. This is known as gating. The implementation of a gate on a hedge fund is up to the hedge fund manager. The purpose of the provision is to prevent a run on the fund, which would impact on its operations. Investors should consider a hedge fund with a gate as illiquid, as withdrawals from these funds are restricted.
private equity
An investment in the Fund is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk.
Fund Managers may invest in assets which are not individually authorised by the relevant regulatory authority. In view of this, special care should be exercised when investing in this type of fund.
The Portfolio Funds will invest in securities acquired in private transactions. The market value of the companies in which the Portfolio Funds may invest are subject to substantial variation. In the absence of a public market for most of these investments, such investments may be thinly traded or may cease to be traded after an investment has been made in them. An investment in the fund should be considered as illiquid.
legal and regulatory information
This material is issued by the Societe Generale Private Banking Hambros Group ("SGPB Hambros Group"). The group includes:
SG Hambros Bank Limited ('SGPB Hambros') which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. SGPB Hambros is registered in England and Wales under number 964058. The company's registered office and principal place of business is at 31 St James's Square, London SW1Y 4JR.
We are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). For an investment claim to be eligible to receive compensation from the Scheme, it must meet all of the following criteria:
a) the advice you received to buy the investment must have been given on or after 28 August 1988; and
b) the firm that advised you must have been authorised by the appropriate regulator to do so at that time; and
c) you must have lost money as a result of the advice you were given; and
d) the firm (or its principals) no longer has sufficient assets to meet claims for compensation.
The Scheme will not pay for losses as a result of the performance of the investment in the absence of any eligible claim for example, for poor advice or poor management.
Investors should note the limitations of compensation schemes with regard
to investment products. In the UK, a claim may be available for example only if,
1) the provider of advice in advised sales, was insolvent and investors had a claim against it for negligent advice or mis-selling; or
2) the product provider was insolvent and investors had a claim against it for maladministration, mismanagement, misrepresentation or misappropriation of funds.
For further information about the compensation provided by the FSCS (including the amounts covered and eligibility to claim) please ask your private banker or refer to the FSCS website www.FSCS.org.uk or call the FSCS
on 0800 678 1100. Please note only compensation related queries should be directed to the FSCS.
The application of schemes will depend on the jurisdiction in which the adviser or product provider operates. There are no investor protection schemes in
the Channel Islands and the scheme in Gibraltar has very limited application. Further details of the relevant schemes are available on request from your private banker.
SG Hambros Bank (Channel Islands) Limited ('SGPB Hambros CI') –
SGPB Hambros CI is registered in Jersey under number 2693. The company's registered office and principal place of business is at PO Box 78, SG Hambros House, 18 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8PR. SGPB Hambros CI, Guernsey Branch has its principal place of business at PO Box 6, Hambro House, St Julian's Avenue, St Peter Port, Guernsey GY1 3AE.
SGPB Hambros CI and SGPB Hambros CI, Guernsey Branch are regulated
for banking, investment, funds services and money service business by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. SGPB Hambros CI, Guernsey Branch is also regulated for banking and investment business by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission.
SG Hambros Bank (Gibraltar) Ltd is regulated and authorised by the Financial Services Commission, Gibraltar.
Societe Generale Private Banking Hambros is part of the wealth management arm of the Societe Generale Group, Societe Generale Private Banking.
Societe Generale is authorised by the Banque de France and the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel (Prudential Control Authority) in France. It is also authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
Further information on the SGPB Hambros Group including additional legal and regulatory details can be found on: www.privatebanking.societegenerale.com/hambros
© Copyright the Societe Generale Group 2015. All rights reserved. 09/14


text:
How Does One Get HIV
Here's a taste of what TheBody.com has to offer on this topic:
Ask the Experts
how could one tell if HIV virus gone?Are there any lab tests to know definately if HIV virus totally gone--has this ever happened?
Response from Mark Holodniy, M.D., F.A.C.P., C.I.C.
Stanford University, School of Medicine...infection. This however, is after chemotherapy and a bone marrow transplant from a special donor who has cells that are immune to HIV infection. Very sophisticated molecular tests are required to determine if blood cells and cells from other... Read more »
Eliminating the Stigma of HIV/AIDS -we are all one.Dr. Bob,Our hero- we have to work together to eliminate the stigma of hiv/aids. We are all... Read more »
Insurance for One HIV+ EMPLOYEEI read about the "employer denied Health Coverage due to one employee". What about "EMPLOYEE denied... Read more »
AAHIVM Reaffirms Support for Routine HIV Testing, Calls Upon All Medical Providers to Perform at Least One HIV Test on National HIV Testing Day June 27...of the nation's health care system at center stage for the White House, the Congress and the country, the American Academy of HIV Medicine (AAHIVM), on National HIV Testing Day 2009, affirms its commitment to implementation of routine HIV testing... Read more »
Madagascar's Response to HIV/AIDS One of "Most Aggressive" in Africa, AP/ ABC News Reports... Madagascar's response to HIV/AIDS has been one of the "most aggressive" in Africa and should serve as a model for how to prevent the transmission of the virus Read more »
Faith Leaders Become "One" Against HIV... Faith leaders around the city discuss AIDS. Photo: DC HIV/AIDS Examiner. Faith leaders converged onto the convention center Saturday to discuss AIDS in the city. The Read more »
Four-in-One HIV Pill Enters Late-Stage Clinical Testing... "Gilead Sciences Inc. said Monday it started late stage clinical testing of its four-in-one 'Quad' HIV tablet," the Associated Press reports. The pill includes the drugs elvitegravir, cobicistat, and the two components of Truvada, Read more »
Connect With Others
Does any one got HIV using a condom???
Posted by Leonadi, 3 RepliesI had protected sex with a girl i just knew is positive. I always swear a condom. Does anyone here got the virus even when used a properly condom???? For last 3 months, after i knew this, i have my tongue totally yellow/white and have a terrible bad... Read more »
Any one got HIV using condom????
Posted by Arruinado, 3 RepliesI had protected sex with a girl i just knew is positive. I always swear a condom. Does anyone here got the virus even when used a properly condom???? For last 3 months, after i knew this, i have my tongue totally yellow/white and have a terrible bad... Read more »
Posted by sak51...Social and Political Sciences Department at the University of Cambridge, is currently conducting a research study focusing on HIV/AIDS stigma. He is looking for individuals interested in sharing their stories about living with HIV/AIDS.... Read more »
If you have lost a loved one to HIV/AIDS ....
Posted by Marjorie...or complications directly or in-directly to AIDS .... as we have .... and would like to add them to our *Virtual AIDS Memorial Collage Website* please visit us at; www.virtualaidscollage.com Read more »
Resource Centers
Guides for People With HIV


text:
"Gossip Column"
I was expecting some insight to the political workings of Washington DC. What he delivers is old news. We know that most politicians that go to Washington stay in Washington and become power brokers.
I gave up listening about half way through
I did not like the format. The story was told in letters back and forth between the characters. It was a nice little love story with historical background, but had no "punch".
"He ties it all together"
I have been looking for this book for a long time. I have read many books looking for the answer to how we got here (in this economical mess) and why are we stuck. Each book seemed only to deal with a small part of the problem. Hedrick Smith puts the puzzle together for us. He explains the legislation, motivation behind it, and the players responsible for it. He deals with each sector of the economy, because there is no one culprit. He debunks many of the "sound bite" reasons given by our politicians for our lack of progress out of the woods.
Read it before you step into the voter booth!
"Finally some clarity"
This a must read. We all need to educate ourselves. There is too much conflicting noise on the airways. Mr Krugman has done an excellent job explaining how we got into this economical mess. And his voice is one of sanity on the road out of the mess. Do yourself a favor and listen.
I agree with him in that we have been lead down this path by greed and ignorance.
Ken Follett has a wonderful way of combining history and fiction. His characters are well developed and John Lee excels at bringing them to life.
The plot has many twist and turns which captures the imagination, but is predictible. I don't look to Mr Follett for suprise endings, but rather to be carried back to the times and places in which he sets his stories.
Baldacci needs a pulpit. Too much preaching, not enough plot. The narrator adds nothing. Don't waste your time.
"Fiction or non fiction"
Dan Brown is more interested in educating the listener on the history of the Masons than developing his storyline. I was very disappointed and often bored by his rambling.
Report Inappropriate Content
If you find this review inappropriate and think it should be removed from our site, let us know. This report will be reviewed by Audible and we will take appropriate action.


text:
Energy drinks, adolescents a risky combination, review says
Mike Terry, Deseret News archives
Recent research on energy drinks finds harmful effects for adolescents, from heart and digestive problems to insomnia, anxiety, dehydration and more. If teens mix them with alcohol, it's even more dangerous, a report in Pediatrics in Review says.
The most popular energy drinks contain "high, unregulated amounts of caffeine, as well as other stimulants that can enhance the effect of caffeine," according to a statement from the American Academy of Pediatrics.
The report, called "Energy Drinks: What Teenagers (and Their Doctors) Should Know," said that "hundreds of different energy drinks are available and are marketed to adolescents, carrying the potential for substance abuse that involved caffeine and alcohol. Clinicians must be educated to deal with their patients' use of these products."
"The variety of products on the market is dizzying, and there are new ones arriving all the time. Some contain alcohol and caffeine. Others, just caffeine, but in amounts all over the map," wrote Elizabeth Simpson of the Virginian-Pilot. "Energy drinks also have additives such as guarana, ginseng and taurine, which are not regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, so their effects are not completely understood."
For the review, the authors looked at 23 previous studies on energy drinks and use by youths, including some that were the basis for warnings from the American Academy of Pediatrics in 2011 about risks associated with the drinks. Researchers for one such study, published in Pediatrics, concluded that there's never a good reason for children and adolescents to consume energy drinks. "In general, caffeine-containing beverages, including soda, should be avoided," the researchers wrote.
Several researchers who have been looking at energy drinks noted that teens often don't know a difference between energy drinks and sports drinks. Sports drinks are designed to rehydrate someone after exercise. Energy drinks are completely different.
Nationally, efforts to limit access to at least "high-octane" energy drinks may be getting some traction. A story in USA Today said that Chicago is among local governments considering banning sale of energy drinks that contain high amounts (in its case, 180 milligrams) of caffeine and other substances. The article pointed out that would "end sales of many 24-ounce energy drinks."
The number of teens who consume energy drinks regularly was 16 percent in 2003, but had more than doubled to 35 percent in 2008, the report said. Half of college students reportedly drink at least one a month.
Time's Healthland provides a breakdown of the ingredients the researchers say might be problematic, including caffeine, guarana, sugars, taurine, ginseng and B vitamins.
The story said that some members of Congress want tighter regulation of the drinks. There are many better ways to boost energy, including getting more sleep, eating healthy foods, and getting adequate exercise, according to Dr. Kwabena Blankson, who specializes in treating adolescents at Naval Medical Center and is the new report's lead author. She told Doctortipster.com that "parents and doctors alike should be constantly supervising the behavior of teenagers and inform them about the dangers of energy drinks whilst suggesting healthier alternatives."
The Aiken Standard reported that in 2011, about 20,000 people in the United States were admitted to emergency rooms because of energy drink consumption. That article said that 18 people reportedly died last fall, "with energy drinks being looked at for the blame," according to the Associated Press. Questions about energy drinks and kids have been ongoing for some time, although not everyone's convinced.
The American Beverage Association has challenged this new report, saying in a statement: "This paper contains misinformation about energy drinks and does nothing to address the very serious problem of underage drinking and excessive alcohol consumption among young adults. Moreover, ABA member companies manufacture non-alcoholic beverages — including energy drinks.
"Contrary to the misperception perpetuated by this paper, most mainstream energy drinks contain only about half the amount of caffeine of a similar size cup of coffeehouse coffee. Energy drinks, their ingredients and labeling also are regulated by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Importantly, the American Beverage Association has adopted, and encourages all energy drink companies to adopt, a Guidance for the Responsible Labeling and Marketing of Energy Drinks. Under this guidance, companies voluntarily display caffeine amounts from all sources on their packages along with an advisory statement that the product is not intended or recommended for children, pregnant or nursing women and persons sensitive to caffeine," it said.
"Let's stick with the facts, rather than perpetuating sensational untruths which attempt to blur the line between energy drinks and alcoholic beverages," the ABA added.
EMAIL: firstname.lastname@example.com, Twitter: Loisco
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text:
Look at it this way: The oil BP has already lost was worth millions. The company will shell out billions to clean up the Gulf, and deal with lawsuits. Its stock price will take a hit, and negative publicity from the incident will haunt the company for decades.
All told, the market will impose a multi-billion dollar price tag on BP. It's a far stronger punishment than any regulator could impose. And you know other oil companies are paying attention and taking steps to ensure they don't pay a similar heavy price.
The fact is, extracting oil from the ground and delivering it to buyers is difficult, dangerous work. The United States now imports most of the oil we use, and a good deal of that is shipped by sea. So even if we ended offshore drilling today, the possibility of a marine disaster would remain very real.
We need to develop more on-shore oil fields, including ANWR in Alaska and the shale oil deposits in Colorado. Salazar is dragging his feet on both prospects. These offer our best long-term hope to reduce oil imports. Meanwhile, we need to focus on safety (which, despite the Gulf incident, has vastly improved in recent years) while we keep developing offshore fields.
That's the best way to break the cycle of dependency on foreign oil, and on over-eager lawmakers and bureaucrats.
Due to the overwhelming enthusiasm of our readers it has become necessary to transfer our commenting system to a more scalable system in order handle the content.
Second Blogger Hacked to Death In Bangladesh: Police Suspect Assailants Tied To Terror Group | Vivian Hughbanks
Video: Barometers of political conventional wisdom say Hillary has a big problem, even on MSNBC | Mary Katharine Ham
Rubio's pollster: If the GOP doesn't win more than 40% of the Latino vote next year, they'll lose the election | Allahpundit


text:
She reminds me of my ex
They tried the 100 share take down this morning but it didn't work. lol
What about jsm?
How anyone could troll one chat board infinitely posting dribble 24x7 is beyond human comprehension.
You been on this board for the last nine years posting 24x7? Get a life loser !!!
Don't buy any stock lower than it's all time high. lol
Maybe we shouldn't invest in oil at $40 because it was $100 last year. What an absolute total idiot you are. lol
than a 3x oil etf
This board is his life. Ah ha ha ha
AHHHGG... Wrong again, it was .60 cents. ha ha ha
for dialablow's legal fee costs. ha ha ha
and dialablow is on it last leg
18K volume. lol
From $2.47 to $2.29 in the last 30 seconds of trading on no volume... I mean come on. lol
Same as last Friday
that Yan harassed her and caused her mental and physical anguish
Funny there's no charge of fraud on the 40,000 bulbs.
Maybe Laura is in on it too. lol
plain as day watching the trading... volume trades above $2.50 but you don't see as they end the trade with a 100 lot at $2.46


text:
Chicago Bears coach Marc Trestman ran through the faults he saw in his team during its latest loss and it sure sounded familiar.
A gunman responsible for a deadly siege in a Sydney cafe was once on the national security agency's watch list — but was dropped off it years ago for reasons that remain unclear, Australia's prime minister said Wednesday.
Starz has renewed the Golden Globe-nominated series�The Missing�for a second season, the network...
Five ways you can have fun this weekend:
No one was injured when the basement of a Neosho home was heavily damaged by fire Tuesday morning.
A stalemate of property issues was the underlying theme of Tuesday's Neosho City Council meeting.
Thefts from vehicles are on the rise in Neosho, and police are warning residents to help themselves to avoid becoming a victim.
A new center of commerce opened in Newton County Tuesday.
Christmas for Tyler Mitchell, Tuesday's keynote speaker at Neosho's Laymen's League Pre-Christmas Services, is about remembering Jesus Christ and what He did for us.
Lloyd G. Doke, Jr., 57, Neosho, died Sunday, Dec. 14, 2014, at Freeman West Hospital.
- Events Calendar


text:
Learn how MacUpdate Desktop can install apps on MacUpdate with the simple click of the icon. Plus, keep all your apps updated.
The Java SE Runtime Environment 8 (Java Platform, Standard Edition) is a major feature release. It contains new features and enhancements in many functional areas. Java SE 8 delivers enhanced developer productivity and significant application performance increases through reduced boilerplate code, improved collections and annotations, simpler parallel programming models, and more efficient use of modern, multi-core processors.
What's New
Java Packager Tool Enhancements
- Command-line arguments can be passed to self-contained applications. Default arguments are defined when the package is created, which can be overridden by the user when the application is started. See Passing Arguments to a Self-Contained Application.
- File associations can be set up when a self-contained application is installed so more...
- OS X 10.8.3 or later


text:
It is law than no one can walk...
It is law than no one can walk on the streets after 22:00 until 06:00, this is an offence. If caught by the police you will probably have to negotitate a bribe. Usually K10,000 will suffice. They won't really hesitate to lock you up for the night if you are not forthcoming in giving them a little something. It is much easier to take one of Lusaka's night time taxi's which is an experience in itself.
Victoria Falls are wet ;)
The path, at the left, along the falls, goes through the Victoria Falls National Park in Zimbabwe. There are excellent viewpoints, but the water mist makes you wet: take care of your camera!Related to:
- Road Trip
- National/State Park
Zambia Hotels
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text:
Alle BOINC Projektnews
SETI.Germany bietet auch einen RSS-Feed aller BOINC-News und ein Twitter-Konto, auf dem die BOINC Projektnews veröffentlicht werden. Nähere Informationen dazu gibt es hier.
- ABC@home: Project News 17 Dec 2014
17.12.2014 00:00 Uhr
ABC@home will be down for a few hours (at least) while we migrate to a new machine/setup.
- ABC@home: Project News 22 May 2013
22.05.2013 00:00 Uhr
ABC@home may (again) be unavailable for some periods over the next few days.
- ABC@home: Project News 18 February 2013
18.02.2013 00:00 Uhr
ABC@home may be unavailable for some periods over the next few days.
- ABC@home: Project News 7 December 2012
07.12.2012 00:00 Uhr
Due to planned maintenance work on the university network, ABC@home will probably be unavailable from 17:00 UTC today until around 07:00 UTC tomorrow.
- ABC@home: Project News 8 September 2012
08.09.2012 00:00 Uhr
We've reached another milestone in our search; while we verify the data and prepare for future work, there will be far fewer workunits available. Thanks for all the support so far, and we look forward to having more work available soon!
- ABC@home: Project News 25 March 2012
25.03.2012 00:00 Uhr
We've encountered a problem with our feed of new work units, so there's no new work available right now. Sorry! We're working on fixing it.
- ABC@home: Project News 10 September 2011
10.09.2011 00:00 Uhr
Due to a flood of spam, we've temporarily restricted who can post to the project forums.
- ABC@home: Project News 9 April 2011
09.04.2011 00:00 Uhr
A quick update: A lot of spam profiles were removed in the last few days, do complain if we removed any legitimate ones by mistake! Also, preliminary data for all triples with c no more than 10^18 has been available from our data page for a while now, although it is (of course) still preliminary at this point. Many thanks to our dedicated users, and we've now moved onward to further reaches of the search space!
- ABC@home: Project News 3 October 2010
03.10.2010 00:00 Uhr
ABC@home will be unavailable for some periods over the next few days.
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: De afgelopen week hadden we problemen met de schijven van de server. Alles lijkt nu opgelost
14.01.2014 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: Past week we had problems with the disks of our server. Everything seems to be resolved now
14.01.2014 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: Wat doet Correlizer? Zie de beschrijving op .
22.02.2012 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: What does the Corellizer application do? See description on .
22.02.2012 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: The first 10.000 WUs of the new version of Correlizer are now in the system.
19.07.2011 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: De eerste 10.000 WUs van de nieuwe versie van Correlizer zitten nu in het systeem
19.07.2011 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: Komende maandag, 30 mei, beginnen we met een upgrade van de server en een installatie van een nieuwe versie van BOINC. We verwachten na drie dagen weer online te zijn.
27.05.2011 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: We start upgrading the server with a new version of BOINC on Monday May 30th 2011. We expect it takes about three days to be online again.
27.05.2011 00:00 Uhr
- AlmereGrid Boinc Grid: Rapport samengesteld door
internationale teams van experts onder leiding van AlmereGrid.
16.02.2011 00:00 Uhr
- BOINC: BOINC 7.4.42 released for Windows and Mac
26.03.2015 20:31 Uhr
- BURP: Continuously BURPing for a decade
16.06.2014 16:59 Uhr
On June the 16th 2004, the very first test renders started rendering on BURP. A lot has happened since then and a lot of the original ideas from back then have now been turned into reality. We aren't done just yet, so stay tuned for more in the next 10 years - Happy anniversary!
- BURP: Short film "Vetri" by Danan
15.05.2014 18:20 Uhr
Danan has completed his work on the movie "Vetri" that we've recently been rendering. This is the third, large, movie project that he has done – the former ones being "Tripping" and "Theevan" – and he has already promised that there is going to be more where it came from. You can watch the movie and comment on it in his thread in the forum.
- BURP: Correction to the previous news post
09.04.2014 18:03 Uhr
A tiny little spelling error got into the news item from 1st of April causing it to look like BURP had been acquired by Facebook. The intended text was of course: "Happy 1st of April!"
- climateprediction.net: Project Currently Down – UPDATE: We're back up and running
24.03.2015 11:42 Uhr
UPDATE: the problems have now been fixed and the project is back up and running again.
Following a brief outage yesterday, we are having issues with the database server, and other Virtual Machines. Unfortunately, that means the project is effectively down while we sort out what the cause of the problem is.
Sorry for any inconvenience – we hope to have everything back up and running as soon as possible.
– the CPDN team
- climateprediction.net: Prof Myles Allen giving a lecture in Dublin, March 11
10.03.2015 14:55 Uhr
Professor Myles Allen will be giving a lecture in Dublin on Wednesday March 11 on the role of climate change in storms and floods.
For more information, visit the Environmental Protection Agency website
Climate Lecture: Loading the weather dice – the role of climate change in storms and floods – March 11th
The Environmental Protection Agency continues its popular climate change lecture series in 2015. The first lecture this year looks at role of climate change in recent storms including the violent storms of 2014.
The lecture by Professor Myles Allen, Oxford University, will take place in The Mansion House, Dawson Street, Dublin 2 on Wednesday 11th March 2015.
Speaker: Professor Myles Allen
Event Time: 6.15 pm – 8.30 pm
Event Date: 11 March 2015
Location: The Round Room, Mansion House, Dawson Street, Dublin 2
Title: Loading the weather dice — the role of climate change in storms and floods
Chair: Dr. John Bowman
Professor Allen will explore the role of human influence on climate in recent extreme weather events? This talk will present findings from the advanced distributed modelling of the storms in Ireland and UK in 2014 to show how it is possible to answer this question, although the answers might not always be what you might expect. Our emerging ability to quantify actual harm from past greenhouse gas emissions may have profound implications for countries, companies and even individuals.
Myles Allen is Professor of Geosystem Science in the Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment and Department of Physics, University of Oxford. His research focuses on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to observed climate change and extreme weather events. He founded climateprediction.net and weatherathome.org experiments, using volunteer computing for weather and climate research and in 2003 proposed the probability-based approach to the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change. He has been an author on 3rd, 4th and 5th Assessment Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in 2010 was awarded the Appleton Medal from the Institute of Physics.
Contact Information:
Conference Partners Ltd.
11-13 The Hyde Building, The Park, Carrickmines, Dublin 18, Ireland
Tel: +353 1 296 8688
UPDATE: Prof Myles Allen was interviewed by RTE News following his talk and you can watch his interview online here.
- climateprediction.net: 2014 in numbers – 7,500 years of computing time
10.02.2015 17:13 Uhr
In 2014, our volunteers donated nearly 250 billion seconds of computing time.
That's more than 7,500 years of computing time, completing half a million successful simulations, for a total of nearly 2 billion credits.
As always, our thanks go out to our dedicated volunteers who let us run our climate models on their computers – we really couldn't do this project at all without you!
We were running several different experiments in 2014 with a nearly even split between 3 big projects:
- Weather@home 2013 Australia and New Zealand heatwaves and drought [hadam3p_anz] 72,172,281,000s
- Weather@home 2014: the causes of the UK winter floods [hadam3p_eu] 61,225,243,00s
- RAPID-CHAAOS [hadcm3n & hadcm3s] 74,039,203,00s + 12,220,935,00s
Other smaller experiments include:
- HYDRA [hadam3pm2] 1,476,378,00s
- Weather@home Climate Accountability: the causes of extreme heat in the Western US [hadam3p_pnw] 16,486,965,00s
See the full breakdown in this pie chart:
- climateprediction.net: Planned server downtime Thursday 5 February
29.01.2015 11:48 Uhr
Our servers will be down briefly on Thursday 5 February for scheduled maintenance.
We will be configuring the underlying hardware to improve the backup system which should increase our resilience in case of hardware failure in the future.
We hope this will only take a few hours, but could continue into Friday 6 February.
Apologies if this causes any inconvenience.
- climateprediction.net: How anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the odds of individual extreme weather events – a communication opportunity
27.01.2015 15:51 Uhr
One of the biggest communication problems with respect to anthropogenic climate change is that for most people climate change is perceived as a threat in the future, and therefore most likely only future generations will feel the impacts. An exception to this fact are extreme weather events some of which are already being made more likely by climate change. If this causal connection can be drawn to public attention at the time, the impact of climate change could potentially be made more real and immediate in the public consciousness.
Shrewsbury Abbey from the west, November 2000, by Bob Bowyer, geograph.org.uk
Up until very recently, however only general statements about such events could be made which again did not help in getting the message across that climate change is not just a future problem. In a warming world particular types of weather events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall, will become both more intense and more frequent with a rising mean global temperature. However, such general physical reasoning (e.g. warmer air can contain more water vapour leading to more intense and more frequent rainfall events) leaves us unable to say more than that such extreme weather events are consistent with climate change *.
Furthermore, the chaotic nature of weather means that it is generally impossible to say, for any specific event, that it would not have occurred in the absence of human influence on climate. In a simple analogy, a dice may be loaded to come up six, but a six could have come up anyway without the loading. Many people therefore think that it is impossible to attribute specific extreme weather events to past gas emissions, even in principle. However, this is not the case.
In the last decade a new field of research, probabilistic event attribution (PEA) has emerged, and developed the methodology to identify a human fingerprint in individual extreme weather events. The framework was introduced in 2003 by Myles Allen in Oxford and in 2004, Stott et al. published the first paper in Nature applying PEA and showing that climate change at least doubled the risk of the record-breaking European heat wave in the summer of 2003. Since then, advances in the field have prompted numerous studies, leading the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) to dedicate an annual special issue to extreme event attribution for the past three years.
In the probabilistic approach, possible weather under the observed climate conditions (e.g. greenhouse gas concentration, sea surface temperatures, etc.) is simulated over and over again using state-of-the-art climate models and thus obtaining statistics of weather under these conditions. At the same time possible weather is simulated under equivalent natural forcings (solar, volcanoes, etc) but with pre-industrial values of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, hence we simulate possible weather in a world without anthropogenic climate change.
How climate change will increase the probability of extreme weather, in particular heatwaves in Australia
Using the analogy above we roll the weather dice over and over again to obtain statistics of rolling a six. Anthropogenic climate change might have loaded the dice to increase or decrease the probability of coming up six. While we do know that for unloaded dice the probability of coming up 6 is one sixth we do not know the probabilities of extreme weather events in a world without climate change because we have never observed such a world. The approach, therefore, depends crucially on model simulations and on the model's ability to reliably simulate the climate conditions generating the extreme weather event. So, while attributing changes in risk of extreme events, e.g. heat waves, to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions can be done with confidence, the robustness of attribution studies of other extreme events must be assessed on a case-by-case basis.
This has been done with several successful assessments on the human influence on the probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation events (Pall et al., 2011, Christidis et al., 2013, Lott et al., 2013, Schaller et al., 2014). Every extreme weather event is caused by a combination of different factors so a case-by-case analysis is necessary. However, crucially, it is now possible, using PEA, to link individual extreme weather events to their individual causes, one of which could be anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
For each of such attribution studies the possible outcome could be that human greenhouse gas emissions have increased the likelihood of the event, or decreased it or played no detectable role. A fourth possibility would be that our current generation of climate models is unable to reliably reproduce the event. Apart from events that fall in the latter category (e.g. tornados) PEA offers the chance, for the first time, to directly link individual weather events to anthropogenic climate change and thus to assess whether and to what extent climate change is already taking its toll. In other words, it enables us to give a quantitative estimate of how much anthropogenic climate change is costing us today.
This ability could potentially have a huge impact on climate change communication. Extreme events, in particular those that are not just rare from a meteorological perspective but also lead to societal and monetary damages and interrupt everyday life usually receive a very high level of public attention. If attribution studies show that a particular event was indeed made more likely due to anthropogenic climate change, i.e. anthropogenic climate change has increased the chance of the event occurring at this point in time, human induced climate change is transformed from something that is happening at some point in the future to a real threat in the here and now. Hence, PEA can make anthropogenic climate change immediately graspable and thus invaluable to communicate the topic to the public, the press and the politicians.
Currently, these studies are published well after public attention to the event has peaked. However, while the first study attributing a high precipitation event (Pall et al., 2011) to anthropogenic climate change took several years to complete, the annual Bulletins of the American Meteorological Society (Peterson et al., 2012, 2013 Herring et al., 2014) only require months to complete. By refining the methodology and crucially involving more scientists and research groups globally in event attribution, the science is advancing quickly and validation and event definition processes are now possible in very short time frames.
Because a deep understanding of the relevant meteorological processes for each single event is necessary it is difficult to foresee these procedures being automated. Through a new partnership between Climate Central, a non-profit organisation providing TV weather forecasters with climate information, the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute and other academic partners this huge communication opportunity will be taken to the next level by building a modelling and communication framework that provides decision-makers, and in particular the public, with the means to make clear the quantitative connections between greenhouse gas emissions and extreme weather events in real-time.
Map from Climate Central showing how extreme precipitation events are on the rise
This fast turn around ensures that any communication opportunity will have maximum impact as an extreme event only remains topical while it is unfolding. By hearing the science as the public experience the event, they will really begin to fully understand climate change.
This article originally appeared in the Oxford Magazine.
* Hulme 2014, "Attributing Weather Extremes to 'Climate Change': a Review" in Progress in Physical Geography, p. 5. (accessed July 15 2014).
Allen (2003) Liability for climate change. Nature, 421:891-892.
Christidis, N., P. A. Stott, A. Scaife, A. Arribas, G. S. Jones, D. Copsey, J. R. Knight, and W. J. Tennant, (2013) A new HadGEM3-A based system for attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events, J. Climate, 26, 2756-2783
Herring, S. C., M. P. Hoerling, T. C. Peterson, and P. A. Stott, Eds., 2014: Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S1–S96. Lott, F., N. Christidis, and P. Stott (2013) Can the 2011 East African drought be attributed to anthropogenic climate change? Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 1177-1181.
Otto, F. E. L., N. Massey, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. G. Jones, and M. R. Allen (2012) Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702.
Pall, P., T. Aina, D.A. Stone et al. (2011), Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000, Nature, 470, 382-385.
Peterson, T. C., M. P. Hoerling, P. A. Stott and S. Herring, Eds. (2013) Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94 (9), S1–S74.
Peterson, T. C., P. A. Stott and S. Herring, Eds. (2012) Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 from a Climate Perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93 (7), S1–S74.
Schaller, N., F. Otto, G.J. van Oldenborgh, N Massey, S. Sparrow (2014) The heavy precipitation event of May-June 2013 in the upper Danube and Elbe basins [in "Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective"]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S69–S72.
- climateprediction.net: EPSRC funded PhD in Mathematics at University of Exeter
20.01.2015 14:35 Uhr
Disentangling the impact of land use on climate change with Big Data
There's a funded PhD available at the University of Exeter, working with Prof Peter Cox and Dr Margriet Groenendijk.
Application deadline: 13th February 2015
Using the HYDRA project, this PhD project will look at the uncertainty in the climate system due to land use change on both global and local scales. This will make use of a very large (100,000+ experiments) model ensemble using the climateprediction.net distributed computing system.
Please visit the University of Exeter website for more information.
- climateprediction.net: Website up and running again
06.01.2015 17:04 Uhr
I'm pleased to let you know that the website is now up and running again, after being down over Christmas.
Sorry if this caused any inconvenience.
From everyone in the CPDN team, we hope you had a lovely Christmas and New Year!
- climateprediction.net: Europe's Record Heat Directly Tied to Climate Change
18.12.2014 12:39 Uhr
As 2014 comes to a close, Europe is virtually certain to lock in its hottest year in more than 500 years, and according to research by three independent teams of climate scientists, including climateprediction.net, the record can be closely attributed to climate change.
The three groups, from the UK, the Netherlands and Australia, each using a different method, found that Europe should best its previous heat record set in 2007, and that setting that record has been made at least 35 to 80 times more likely by the manmade rise of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
"All the groups are concluding there is a very substantial influence of human caused climate change on increasing the chances of setting a new record in 2014," said David Karoly, an atmospheric scientist at the Australian National University and one of the project researchers.
The three teams in this project — from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Oxford, the University of Melbourne and the Australia National University — are working as part of a new initiative with Climate Central to examine extreme weather events and determine climate change's role in them. In the past, extreme-event attribution took much longer to determine, but the new effort aims to establish any link between climate and extreme weather events much sooner after events happen.
Extreme heat events are one of the signature extremes expected in a warming world, according to climate model projections, be they a record hot summer in Australia or a record hot year for any part of the planet or the globe as a whole. And in general, the link between climate change and extreme heat is clearer and easier to discern than for other forms of extreme weather, such as extreme downpours or drought.
Different Methods, Same Conclusion
In this analysis of extreme heat, each team used different methodology and came up with slightly different numbers for the 2014 record projection and the likely role that climate change played, but all showed a heavy influence of manmade climate change on the recent heat records.
Globally, as well as in Europe, nine of the 10 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 2000. No annual cold record has been set in Europe since 1956 as warming is making hot years hotter and more frequent. No year has been record cold globally since 1911.
This year has been particularly warm, driven largely by extraordinary warming in large swaths of the Earth's oceans.
Of course, the world doesn't warm uniformly. In the U.S., for example, the eastern part of the country has had a fairly cool year while parts of the West are on pace for record temperatures. And many other parts of the planet have been baking, including Europe.
Nineteen European countries are on track for their hottest year on record: Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom. Sweden is projected to tie its record high.
Oxford Experiment
Our team at the University of Oxford, led by Myles Allen and Friederike Otto, used thousands of iterations of regional climate models embedded within larger global models to examine more localized weather events.
For example, our data for Germany determined that what was once a 1 in 80-year heat event has now become a 1 in 7-year event, making it 10 times more likely due to global warming.
Using our volunteers' computers for our weather@home project, we simulated possible European weather based on the observed global ocean temperatures. At the same time, we also simulated a 2014 where there is no human-influenced climate change. Comparing those two "worlds" we found that the 2014 European temperatures were much more likely in the world with climate change than the one without.
"It is important to highlight that Oxford's result crucially depends on the 2014 global ocean temperatures. The same study using 2000-2011 conditions gives a different result although the anthropogenic warming is the roughly same in these years," said Dr Friederike Otto.
"When looking at smaller regions in Europe, we notice that there is a higher variability of temperatures," Karsten Haustein, who conducted the analysis, said. "For example, in central Europe we found that the probability of reaching the observed 2014 temperatures is about 40 times higher. In an even smaller region such as the UK, we found that the probability has increased by a factor of about 10."
Research from the Netherlands
As a continent, Europe is set to break its record by 0.12°C, according to new estimates made by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh at KNMI, and explained in the Climate Indicator Bulletin released by the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Climate Center for Europe and the Middle East.
Van Oldenborgh used both modern and early temperature records, as well as sources like tree rings, which can act as a proxy for very old temperatures, to observe Europe's temperature records back to 1500 and determined that 2014 will almost certainly be the warmest year Europe has experienced during the past 500 years.
When looking at the record of temperatures over time, "you see that the world is getting warmer and hence Europe is getting warmer," van Oldenborgh said.
Using those observational records, van Oldenborgh's analysis concluded that global warming has made a temperature anomaly like the one observed in 2014 in Europe at least 80 times more likely.
At the beginning of the 20th century, before the global warming signal emerged from the noise of year-to-year variability, the chances of seeing a year as warm as this one were less than one in 10,000, van Oldenborgh said. "It would be almost impossible to reach these temperatures a century ago."
Australian Research
An Australian team led by Karoly and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne answered a slightly different question, which was to ask how much more likely it was to break the 2007 record with warming than without. To do this they used the same model simulations used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's most recent report.
They found that the accumulation of greenhouse gases, which increases the chances of a record warm year every year they accumulate, made such an event 35 times more likely.
Similar Results
The differences in the numbers calculated by each group are a product of the slightly different questions each team asked, as well as the inherent uncertainty in these sorts of measurements, given how rare extreme events are, van Oldenborgh said. But for this heat event, "these numbers are very close given the uncertainties," he said. That agreement across studies "gives us confidence in the result that global warming made a temperature this high in Europe much more likely."
The results are also in line with previous work of Karoly's that found that the record warm year Australia experienced in 2013 was "virtually impossible" without the influence of global warming, as he put it.
"What we've been finding is that there's a very clear signal on human influences on increases in the likelihoods of record temperatures," Karoly said.
This article is an edited version of articles that appeared on the Climate Central website – read the originals here and here.
Download a fact sheet about European Attribution for 2014.


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CLIFF RICHARD's 75th BIRTHDAY TOUR
Click the above link for the gig page.
Cliff has been keeping a low profile but is far from idle.
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Our Fan Club History
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Being a Cliff Richard fan makes you a person with excellent taste in my book!
My name is Carol Hall and I am President of the London and Surrey fan club.
First of all, let me give you a little history about the regional and world wide fan clubs. Once upon a time, back when the swinging 60's were upon us, Cliff had one centralised fan club, based in the UK. Now legend tells me that this particular club ran into financial difficulties, for reasons that are not known to me. I'm told that Cliff had to bail the club out and at the time, vowed never to do it again......


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The Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission cautions motorists that a 13-mile stretch of the Northeastern Extension (I-476) will be closed in both directions for six hours Sunday between Lansdale (Exit 31) and Quakertown (Exit 44) for bridge work.
At 12:01 a.m. on Sunday, southbound traffic will be diverted off at the Quakertown Interchange and northbound at the Lansdale Interchange.
Motorists wishing to travel north from the Mid-County Interchange or the east/west Turnpike mainline will be directed to exit I-476 at Lansdale.
The stretch will reopen by 6 a.m.
Right lanes will be closed in both directions from milepost A35–A39 at 8 p.m. tonight. The speed limit will be 40 mph until single-lane patterns are lifted Sunday morning.
State police and turnpike personnel will be at the Lansdale and Quakertown interchanges to assist motorists. For more information, visit www.paturnpike.com/constructionprojects/mpA31toA38.
In the event of inclement weather, the closure will be rescheduled for May 17-18.


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University of Texas Arlington
News Releases By Topic
17 news releases are tagged with the topic history
March 2015
Comics, culture and history
A new exhibit in the UT Arlington Libraries Special Collections provides a unique perspective of comic books, a significant form of literature and art in Mexico from the 1930s to the 1960s.
Cartography history
The United Kingdom's national center for humanities and social sciences research has named UT Arlington cartography expert Imre Demhardt to a prestigious fellowship.
February 2015
Getting personal
UT Arlington Librarians Lea Worcester and Evelyn Barker carry readers on an intimate pictorial journey through UT Arlington's history in their new book, "University of Texas at Arlington."
January 2015
Civil rights leader's legacy honored
A keynote speech by state Sen. Royce West, Distinguished UT Arlington Alumnus, day of service and other events at UT Arlington will honor Martin Luther King Jr.
November 2014
Cartoons and politics
UT Arlington Cultural Anthropologist Ritu Khanduri examines newspaper cartoons' importance to politics and culture in new book.
July 2014
Understanding the Pledge
Education researcher finds that many middle and high school students do not understand the concepts or purpose of the Pledge of Allegiance, despite saying the oath often at school.
February 2014
Risk and profit
Sarah Rose, a labor and disability historian, says multi-billion dollar baseball industry is largely responsible for steroid abuse by some players.
January 2014
Advancing the Dream
Nationally-syndicated columnist Roland Martin to give keynote address at Jan. 17 UT Arlington event paying tribute to Martin Luther King, Jr.
December 2013
Documenting the journey
José Gutiérrez, political science professor, examines impact of the Texas Association of Chicanos in Higher Education in new photo-laden political book.
November 2013
Researching women's fight
Erika Pribanic-Smith, assistant professor of communication, wins national award for her paper examining the use of print media in the campaign to save George Washington's estate.
October 2013
Examining midwifery in America
A history graduate student earns national recognition for her paper concerning midwifery, race and economics in the U.S. between 1920-1970.
September 2013
Preserving culture and language
The National Science Foundation awards efforts by Colleen Fitzgerald, professor of linguistics and TESOL, to document and revitalize Native American language.
August 2013
JFK remembered in Special Collections photo exhibit
Exhibit focuses on the Kennedys' buoyant visit to Fort Worth in 1963.
Zlolniski appointed director of Center for Mexican American Studies
Internationally-renowned scholar, expert in international migration and economic globalization to lead center in new direction.
New disability studies minor launched
Curriculum will help students explore how disability and ability shape culture.
June 2013
History chair plays role in new encyclopedia of Black history
The Texas State Historical Association launches a new "Handbook of African American Texas" today with the help of History chairman.
February 2013
Professor, graduate student discover poem written by 18th century slave
A University of Texas at Arlington English professor and his doctoral student have discovered a never-before published, handwritten manuscript by Jupiter Hammon, an 18th century slave from Long Island, N.Y., who many scholars consider one of the founders of early African-American literature.
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MavsArt Spring 2015 Exhibit
Mon, Mar 30 – All Day
Viva Mexico! A Comic Book History of Mexico
Mon, Mar 30 – 9:00 am
Exhibit - Juneteenth in Texas: 150 Years of Freedom
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Art Exhibition in The Gallery at UTA: Subject: Disability
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Walk-In Hours - The Career Development Center - 1:00PM - 3:45PM
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