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Connectivity agenda for the Western Balkans European Commission - Speech - [Check Against Delivery] 25 March 2015 Pristina, Speech by EU Commissioner Johannes Hahn at the meeting with Western Balkans 6 Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Transport Ministers, I am delighted to be with you today on the occasion of the first meeting within the Western...
Speaking points by Vice-President Ansip following College orientation debate on Digital Single Market European Commission - Speech - [Check Against Delivery] Brussels, 25 March 2015 Some years ago, we opened Europe's borders. People are no longer separated by a fence or wall. But in the online world, these borders still exist.
Commission opens in-depth investigation into public contracts between Brussels authorities and French advertising company JC Decaux European - Press release Commission Brussels, 24 March 2015 Following a complaint, the European Commission has opened an in-depth investigation to assess whether two measures granted by the Brussels authorities in favour of the French outdoor advertising company JC Decaux were in line with EU state aid rules.
How safe are your roads? Commission road safety statistics show small improvement for 2014 European Commission - Press release Brussels, 24 March 2015 Following two years of solid decreases in the number of people killed on Europe's roads, the first reports on road deaths in 2014 are disappointing. According to the figures released today, the number of road fatalities has decreased by approximately 1%...
New expertise exchange initiative to better manage Regional Policy investments European Commission - Press release Brussels, 24 March 2015 Today the Commission is launching a new platform for public service officials to exchange expertise and best practice around Europe, to further improve how EU investments are spent and managed.
European Court of Auditors report on the Youth Guarantee – comment from the Commission Commission - Fact Sheet European Brussels, 24 March 2015 The Commission welcomes the report published by the Court of Auditors today on the Youth Guarantee, to which the European Commission has provided a reply, which underlines the timely and appropriate support which the Commission provided to the Member States in...
Improving how EU Member States and regions invest and manage EU Cohesion Policy funds European Commission - Fact Sheet Brussels, 24 March 2015 In 2014-2020 over 351 billion euro will be available to EU Member States, regions and cities under the Cohesion Policy (European Regional Development Fund, European Social Fund and the Cohesion Fund).
Daily News 24 / 03 / 2015 European Commission - Daily News Daily News 24 / 03 / 2015 Brussels, 24 March 2015 How safe are your roads? Commission road safety statistics show small improvement for 2014 Following two years of solid decreases in the number of people killed on Europe's roads, the first reports on road...
The state of play of EU-Russia energy relations European Commission - Speech - [Check Against Delivery] Brussels, 24 March 2015 Maroš Šefčovič - Vice-President for Energy Union Speech at the Meeting of the European Parliament's Delegation to EU-Russia Parliamentary Cooperation Committee Chairman Karas, President Buzek, Distinguished Members of Parliament, It is a pleasure for me to be...
Structured Dialogue - European Parliament: Economic & Monetary Affairs Committee European Commission - Speech - [Check Against Delivery] Brussels, 24 March 2015 Jonathan HILL Member of the European Commission, responsible for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union I'm very glad to be back a month after we met to discuss the Green Paper on Capital Markets Union.
Since 1 September 2014, only press releases from the European Commission are published in the Press Release Database.Press releases from other European institutions from the last 30 days can be found in the EU Newsroom. Older material can be found in these institutions' own press pages.
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Deborah Netburn is a science reporter for the Los Angeles Times. She began her journalism career at the New York Observer in 1999, and has covered residential real estate, rich kids in Manhattan, entertainment, home and garden, wacky national news, and technology. She has worked at the Los Angeles Times since 2006.
In the slippery tide pools of San Pedro's Point Fermin, there are sticky green sea anemone, hard-shelled limpets, barnacles shaped like mini-volcanoes and even small octopuses hiding between gaps in the rocks.
Turkey vultures are amazing animals, and, lets face it, pretty disgusting.
The Philae lander's precise location remains a mystery more than a week after it touched down on a comet, but now science detectives say they are getting closer to figuring out exactly where it ended up.
The trippy video you see above is the highest-resolution model yet of how carbon dioxide moves around the Earth's atmosphere.
One-fifth of the nation's high school students say they have smoked in the past 30 days, and nearly half of them admit to having experimented with smoking at least once in their lives, according to a new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Philae probe is alive and well a day after the first successful spacecraft landing on a comet, but scientists are still trying to figure out exactly where it is on its new home.

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CHAPTER 10 THE TIDES Objectives 1. To learn about the regular rise and fall of the tides. 2. To investigate the tides we would expect to find on a non-rotating planet that is covered uniformly with water (equilibrium tidal theory). 3. To study the tides that actually occur and are made more complex by the presence of continents, ocean basins, and the Earth's rotation (dynamic tidal analysis). Key Concepts Major Concept (I) The tides rise and fall in response to forces generated by the Sun and the Moon and the rotation of the Earth-Moon system about their common center of mass. The actual pattern of the tides varies from place to place around the world. Related or supporting concepts: - The rise and fall of the tides is most evident, and has the greatest impact on society, in shallow coastal waters. - The vertical distance between high and low tide water levels changes from one place to another around the world. - Some locations experience a diurnal tide with one high tide and one low tide each day. - Other areas experience a semidiurnal tide with two high tides and two low tides each day. When the water levels of the two high tides and of the two low tides are unequal, the tidal pattern is called a semidiurnal mixed tide that indicates the presence of combined diurnal and semidiurnal tides. Major Concept (II) Fluctuating water levels with the passage of the tides are described by a variety of specific terms. Related or supporting concepts: - When an area experiences either a diurnal or a semidiurnal tide with equal maximum and minimum water levels, the highest water level is called high water and the lowest is called low water. - In a semidiurnal mixed tide, the two high tide water levels are designated higher high water and lower high water. The two low tide water levels are called higher low water and lower low water. - Figure 10.1 in the text illustrates these definitions and you should look at it to clear up any confusion. - At any given location, the tides must be monitored over 18.6 years to obtain estimates of the average tide levels at that point and to predict future tides. - Water depths published on navigation charts are measured from a zero depth reference level called the tidal datum for the area covered by the chart. In regions that experience simple diurnal or uniform semidiurnal tides, the tidal datum corresponds to the long term average low water level. Where there are mixed semidiurnal tides with two unequal low water levels, the tidal datum is the long term average lower low water level. - Minus tides occur when the water level occasionally falls below the tidal datum. - The rising tide is called a flood tide and the falling tide is called an ebb tide. - The movement of water with the flood and ebb tides creates tidal currents that reverse direction with the rising and falling water levels. At high and low tide when the tidal currents stop temporarily before reversing their flow, there is a period of slack water. - If the tide is a progressive type tide in the open ocean, the maximum tidal current in the direction the wave is moving coincides with the crest of the wave, or high tide. The maximum tidal current in the opposite direction coincides with the trough of the wave, or low tide. 118 Major Concept (III) The mathematical study of ideal tides behaving in response to the laws of physics is called equilibrium tidal theory. Dynamic tidal analysis is the study of the tides as they occur naturally. Related or supporting concepts: - Equilibrium tidal theory assumes that the Earth is smooth and completely covered with water to a constant depth. - Dynamic tidal analysis studies the tides as they actually occur, influenced by landmasses, the geometry of ocean basins, and the Earth's rotation. Major Concept (IV) The most influential body in generating the tides is the Moon. Related or supporting concepts: - Let's begin by considering ideal tides generated by the Moon. - As the Earth and Moon move through space, they rotate around their common center of mass. The center of mass of the Earth-Moon system is at a point roughly 4640 km (2880 mi) from the Earth's center on a line joining the centers of the two bodies. - Two forces act to keep the Earth and the Moon at a constant distance from one another. Outward directed centrifugal force (FC), resulting from their rotation around their common center of mass, acts to drive them apart (just as a yo-yo would fly away if you swung it over your head in circles and suddenly let go of the string). The gravitational force of attraction (F G) between the Earth and the Moon acts against the centrifugal force and keeps them at a constant distance. Both of these forces are proportional, in part, to the mass of the Moon (M) divided by the distance squared between the centers of the Earth and the Moon (M/R2). - Centrifugal force is an apparent force that is present when you judge motion against a rotating frame of reference. - FC acting on any particle on the Earth is essentially the same, regardless of where that particle is. However, FG changes from place to place on the surface of the Earth. FG is largest at a spot on the surface closest to the Moon and it is smallest on the opposite side of the Earth farthest from the Moon. These two forces exactly balance at the center of the Earth but everywhere else they can differ by some small amount. - The tides are produced by what we can call the tide generating force, or tide raising force (F T). The tide generating force for any given particle is proportional to the difference between the gravitational force of attraction and the centrifugal force acting on the particle: F T = FG - FC. It can be shown that the tide generating force is proportional, in part, to M/R3. - On the side of the Earth closest to the Moon, FG is slightly larger than FC and the larger gravitational attraction of the Moon will raise a mound of water directly beneath it to form a tidal bulge, or a tidal crest. - On the opposite side of the Earth, farthest from the Moon, FC is slightly larger than FG, so the centrifugal force will drive water outwards away from the rotating Earth-Moon system. This will raise a second tidal bulge of equal height on the opposite side of the Earth from the Moon. - Another way to explain the tide generating force is to think of the Earth contantly accelerating toward the Sun or the Moon in response to their gravitational attraction. The centripetal force is constant and proportional to the average gravitational force acting at the Earth's center. The difference between the average gravitational force and the actual gravitational force at individual points on the Earth's surface produces the tide-generating force. - Regions of low water, a tidal trough, are present between the bulges a quarter of the way around the globe from the crests. - Thus we will see a semidiurnal tide with two high tides and two low tides moving westward around the globe as the Earth rotates eastward within the distorted water covering. - The Moon rotates around the Earth in the same direction as the Earth rotates on its axis. Because of this it takes 24 hours and 50 minutes for a point on the Earth directly below the Moon to make one complete revolution and again be directly beneath the Moon. This period of time is known as the tidal day. 119 - The progressing lunar semidiurnal tide wave will have a period of 12 hours and 25 minutes and a wavelength of half the circumference of the Earth. Major Concept (V) The other critical astronomical body that influences the tides is the Sun. Related or supporting concepts: - The Sun also produces a tide generating force in the same way as the Moon. This force produces a solar tide wave. - We might suspect that the Sun's tide generating force is greater than the Moon's since the mass of the Sun is so large. But remember that we have to divide the mass of the body by its distance from the Earth cubed! The tide generating force of the Sun is only 46% as large as that of the Moon because of its enormous distance from the Earth. - While the wavelength of the solar tide wave is the same as the lunar tide wave, the period of the semidiurnal solar tide wave is only 12 hours. This is because the Earth makes one complete revolution and brings a point directly beneath the Sun back beneath it in 24 hours. - The longer period of the lunar tide wave causes it to constantly move eastward relative to the solar tide wave. Major Concept (VI) Because the periods of the lunar and solar tides are a little different, the two tides will interfere with one another. This may be constructive or destructive interference, depending on the time (see fig. 10.8). In either case, we must add the two tides together to approximate the actual tide. Related or supporting concepts: - It takes 29.5 days for the Moon to orbit the Earth. - In this period of time the Moon passes through its four phases from new Moon to first quarter, full Moon, and finally third (or last) quarter before the new Moon reappears. - During the new Moon and full Moon phases the Earth, Moon, and Sun are all aligned. The lunar and solar tides will be in phase and add constructively to produce the spring tide. The spring tide has the largest tidal range or vertical distance between highest and lowest water levels. - During the quarter phases of the Moon, the lunar and solar tides add destructively. The lunar high tide coincides with the solar low tide. These neap tides have the lowest tidal range. - In this way, neap tides and spring tides occur alternately at two week intervals, as fortnightly tides. Major Concept (VII) The latitude at which the Moon and Sun are directly overhead varies with time in a regular fashion. Related or supporting concepts: - If the orbital plane of the Moon around the Earth and the orbital plane of the Earth around the Sun both coincided with the equatorial plane of the Earth, the tidal bulges would progress around the equator and at every latitude there would be a simple semidiurnal tide. This tide would have a steadily decreasing range and height with increasing latitude. - In reality, however, the latitudes at which the Sun and Moon are directly overhead vary both north and south of the equator in a predictable manner. - The latitude at which the Sun is directly overhead varies between 23.5°N and S. It takes one year for the Sun to complete this cycle. - The latitude at which the Moon is directly overhead varies between 28.5°N and S. It takes 18.6 years for the Moon to complete this cycle. - If the Sun and/or Moon are directly overhead at a point that is not on the equator, then the two tidal bulges will be in opposite hemispheres. This will cause points at mid-latitudes to experience diurnal tides with one high and low tide daily. This is called a declinational tide. 120 Major Concept (VIII) Another variation in the tides is introduced because both the Moon and the Earth have elliptical rather than circular orbits. Consequently, the distances from the Moon and Sun to the Earth change and the tide generating forces change with them. Related or supporting concepts: - The Earth is closest to the Sun during the Northern Hemisphere winter. - Thus, the solar tide is largest during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Major Concept (IX) The mathematical study of the actual tides as they really occur on Earth is called dynamic tidal analysis. Related or supporting concepts: - The calculated tide generating forces in dynamic tidal analysis are the same as for equilibrium tidal theory. - The actual tides are quite different, however, because the Earth is much more complex than the model used in equilibrium tidal theory. - The continents create closed ocean basins so the tide wave can not progress around the globe except at far southern latitudes around Antarctica. Instead, it can reflect off the continental margins and oscillate in these basins as a standing wave. - The tide wave is reflected from continental edges, refracted by shallow water, and diffracted as it passes through narrow gaps between continents. - The tides are also influenced by the Coriolis effect because of their long periods and wavelengths. - The tide wave moves as a shallow-water wave. In the absence of any other factors, it would move as a free wave at a velocity related to the depth of the water of about 200 m/s (400 mi/hr) from east to west. - The Earth rotates from west to east. At some latitudes it rotates at a velocity higher (as great as 463 m/s or 1044 mi/hr at the equator) than the velocity of a free wave. This is more than twice the speed at which the tide can travel as a free shallow-water wave. - The actual position of the tidal bulge will be determined by the balancing of two opposing forces; frictional contact will the Earth will drive the wave further to the east while the gravitational attraction of the Moon will hold it back. - In this way, the tides move as a forced wave with the tidal bulge slightly in advance, or eastward, of the point on the surface of the Earth beneath the orbiting Moon. - The rotational velocity of the Earth's surface decreases with increasing latitude so the tidal bulge is displaced farthest to the east on the equator and is less affected by frictional drag at higher latitudes. - The frictional drag of the tide wave gradually slows the rotation rate of the Earth on its axis, adding 1.5 milliseconds to the length of the day each 100 years. Major Concept (X) One easy way to see the pattern of movement of the tide wave across and through the ocean basins is to look at a map of cotidal lines indicating the position of the crest of the wave at regular intervals of time, often one hour. This type of illustration is shown in figure 10.11 in the text. Related or supporting concepts: - In some areas the tide wave moves across the ocean basins just as a shallow-water wave would. This occurs in the North Pacific, eastern South Pacific, and the South Atlantic. - Because the tide wave travels as a shallow-water wave with a very long period: a. water motion extends to the sea floor, b. water particles move in elliptical orbits, 121 c. particles move further horizontally than vertically, d. particles move for long periods of time in one direction, and e. particles can be deflected by the Coriolis effect. Major Concept (XI) The reflection of the tide off the edge of a continent can create a rotary standing wave in some parts of the ocean basins. Related or supporting concepts: - Water will naturally flow from an area of high water, or the tidal crest, to an area of low water, or the tidal trough. Because the wavelength of the wave is so long, it takes quite a while for the water to flow from crest to trough and, consequently, the movement is modified by the Coriolis effect. - In the Northern Hemisphere, the moving water is deflected to the right, causing the tidal crest to rotate counterclockwise around a point where the water level remains constant throughout the tidal cycle. This point, or node, is called the amphidromic point. - The tidal range varies with position, decreasing to zero at amphidromic points and increasing away from them. The expected tidal range in different regions of the oceans can be estimated from charts displaying lines of equal tidal range, or corange lines as illustrated in figure 10.12. - Rotating tidal currents are produced as a result of the Coriolis effect acting on water moving in both progressive tide waves and rotary standing tide waves. These tidal currents will rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counterclockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. - Rotary standing waves occur in basins in which the natural period of the basin is close to the period of the tide. The natural period of a closed basin is a function of the depth of the water and the dimensions of the basin. See table 10.1 in the text for examples of the variety of basin depths and dimensions that produce identical natural periods. - Tide waves in coastal bays or channels reflect at the head of the basin and oscillation of the water surface can occur along the length of the basin. These basins are often so narrow that there is no rotary motion. - The dimensions of narrow, open-ended basins determine whether they will amplify the tidal range or decrease it. A spectacular example of amplification occurs in the Bay of Fundy in northeast Canada where the tidal range at the mouth of the bay is only 2 m (6.6 ft), while at the head of the bay it is 10.7 m (35 ft)! - Amplification occurs when the natural period of oscillation of the basin approximately equals the tidal period. Major Concept (XII) In some regions, a fast-moving breaking wave called a tidal bore will progress inland through narrow channels, such as the mouths of rivers, with the flood tide. Related or supporting concepts: - If large amplitude tides enter shallow water in narrow, constricted regions, the water can be forced inland at a higher velocity than a simple shallow-water wave would propagate. - When this happens, the incoming volume of water can form either a single breaking wave or a series of breaking waves. - The passing tidal bore will create an abrupt change in water level. - The height of a typical tidal bore is on the order of 1 m but it can be as great as 8 m! Major Concept (XIII) The accurate prediction of tides at specific locations requires the combination of astronomical data for the general characteristics of the tide and actual local measurements to account for the complexity added by local conditions. Related or supporting concepts: - Measurements of tides at specific locations are made over periods of years using water level recorders. 122 - Measurements are taken for as long as 19 years at primary tide stations to evaluate the effect of the 18.6 year cycle in lunar declination. - These measurements can then be analyzed by a process called harmonic analysis to calculate the many component or partial tides with different amplitudes and periods that combine to form the actual tide. 123 - The National Ocean Survey (NOS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published annual predicted tide tables covering North and South America, Alaska, Hawaii, and the coast of Asia annually until 1996. With the help of these tables, it was possible to look up the dates, times, and predicted water levels for high and low water at 196 different primary tide stations. - The tides at other auxiliary stations can be determined by applying compiled corrections for time and height to the data for the primary stations. - Tide tables are now published by private companies using NOAA data and are available on the internet. Major Concept (XIV) Accurate estimates of the time, direction, and speed of tidal currents at various locations can also be made in a manner similar to the estimation of the characteristics of the tide wave. Related or supporting concepts: - Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of tidal currents are important in both the open ocean and in coastal waters. - In the open ocean, the oscillatory circular water motion of tidal currents must be carefully removed to measure the true flow of water in major ocean currents. - In coastal waters, strong tidal currents can create navigational hazards for boaters. - Tidal current data is published in a format similar to the tide tables. Major Concept (XV) Large amounts of energy can potentially be derived from the tides where there are large tidal ranges or narrow channels with fast tidal currents. Related or supporting concepts: - There are two systems for extracting energy from the rise and fall of the tides. - Both systems require the construction of a dam across a bay or estuary so that water can be held in the bay at high tide. - During low, or ebb tide there will be a difference in water level on either side of the dam. - Releasing water from the bay during low tide can drive turbines in the dam and generate electricity. - A tidal range of at least 7 m (23 ft) is needed for this method to be useful. - This method only produces energy during a protion of each ebb tide. A sketch of this kind of system is shown in figure 10.17a. - In a double-action system the dam's gates are opened following the generation of power during ebb tide and the remaining water in the basin is allowed to flow out. The gates are then closed again and some of the remaining water in the basin is pumped out to further lower the water level. The gates are kept closed during the first part of the flood stage cycle and the water level outside of the basin rises. When the water level difference is great enough the flood tide is allowed to flow into the basin through the dam's turbines to generate electricity during the flood tide. - At the end of the flood tide the dam's gates are closed and water outside of the basin is pumped into the basin to further increase the difference in water level. A sketch of this kind of system is shown in figure 10.17b. - There are only about 255 sites that have been identified around the world with the potential for tidal energy development. 124 Matching Key Terms with Major Concepts At the end of the chapter in the textbook is a list of key terms. You should be able to match each of these with one of the previously listed major concepts. To test your ability, try to match the following key terms with the number (I– XV) of the appropriate major concept identified in this section: cotidal line tidal bore low water tidal day free wave diurnal tide ebb tide harmonic analysis amphidromic point minus tide slack water rotary standing tide wave flood tide corange line dynamic tidal analysis equilibrium tidal theory tidal datum Test Your Recall Answer the following questions to test your understanding FILL IN THE BLANK 1. Tides that have two equal high and low water levels each day are called ___________________________ tides. 2. In a mixed tide, the greatest height to which the water level reaches is called __________________ _______________ _______________. 3. The zero depth reference used for navigational charts is the _______________ _______________. 4. When the water level is falling, the tide is an __________ tide. 5. Objects on the surface of the Earth are subjected to an outward directed ______________________________ force as well as a gravitational force. 6. The astronomical body that has the greatest influence on the tides is the ________________. 7. Gravitational attraction is inversely proportional to distance _____________________ and the tide generating force is inversely proportional to distance _______________. 8. The period of a diurnal tide is about ________ hours and ______ minutes. 9. __________________ tides have the greatest tidal range. 10. The tide generating force of the Sun is only about ________ % that of the Moon. 11. Abnormally low tides are called _______________ tides. 12. A rising tide is called a ________________ tide. 13. The study of tides as they actually occur is called _____________________ _______________ ________________________. 14. The distance between high and low tide is the tidal _______________. 15. _____________________ lines mark successive locations of the tide crest at different times. 16. Complex tidal patterns can be separated into components with different ______________________________ and _____________________. 17. A tidal pattern with a single high and low water each day is called _____________________. 18. When the tidal current turns from ebb to flood, there is a period of _______________ water. 19. The Moon moves about ______ degrees per day in its orbit around the Earth. 20. The Moon's orbit is inclined ______ degrees to the Earth-Sun orbit. 125 TRUE - FALSE 1. The crest of the tides moves from north to south across the ocean basins. 2. Some regions experience only one high tide each day while others experience two. 3. A semidiurnal tide has a period that is twice that of a diurnal tide. 4. Equilibrium tidal theory assumes that the Earth is covered with a uniform layer of water. 5. In some narrow channels, the tidal currents during slack water can move as fast as 10 knots. 6. Because of its enormous mass, the Sun's tide generating force is the dominant cause of the tides. 7. According to equilibrium tidal theory, the two tidal crests on either side of the Earth are of equal height. 8. The tidal day is 24 hours and 25 minutes long. 9. Spring and neap tides alternate with one another and have a period of about two weeks. 10. The Moon's orbit around the Earth is elliptical. 11. The tides move as free waves in equatorial regions. 12. Tides move as deep-water waves until they approach continental margins. 13. The highest tidal ranges occur near amphidromic points. 14. Open ocean tidal currents rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. 15. Rotary standing tides occur in basins in which the natural period of the basin approximates the tidal period. 16. Tidal waves in narrow basins always have a larger range than in open coastal waters. 17. The exact tide can be readily calculated for any area by observing the tides carefully for at least 10 years. 18. The tides can be reflected, refracted, and diffracted. 19. Energy can be extracted from the tides. 20. The tides can be used to generate electrical power during both flood and ebb tide. MULTIPLE CHOICE 1. A tide with two unequal high water marks each tidal cycle is called a a. diurnal tide. b. semidiurnal mixed tide. c. semidiurnal tide. d. rotary standing tide. e. progressive tide. 2. The zero depth reference for navigational charts is also called the a. minus tide. b. high water mark. c. lower low water mark. d. tidal datum. e. higher high water mark 3. Tidal currents will flow during a. flood tide. b. ebb tide. c. slack water. d. all of the above. e. a and b above. 4. The best time to go exploring along the beach to discover new things is a. during a minus tide b. during an ebb tide c. during a spring tide d. at the low water level of a diurnal tide e. at the lower low water level of a semidiurnal tide 5. The _______________ method of analyzing the tides takes into account the presence of the continents. a. harmonic analysis b. equilibrium tidal theory c. dynamic tidal analysis d. all of the above e. none of the above 126 6. The period of a diurnal tide is a. 12 hours. b. 24 hours 50 minutes. c. 12 hours 50 minutes. d. 12 hours 25 minutes. e. 24 hours 25 minutes. 7. The tide generating force of the Sun is about ____ % that of the Moon. a. 23 b. 46 c. 75 d. 35 e. 18 8. The Earth and the Moon rotate a. around their center of mass. b. with a period of about 24 hours. c. around the Sun. d. twice per year. e. a and c above. 9. The tide generating force of the Sun is relatively large because of its a. distance from the Earth. b. great mass. c. tremendous heat. d. sunspots. e. none of the above. 10. When the lunar and solar tide waves are 90 degrees out of phase with one another they add a. destructively. b. constructively. c. to produce neap tides. d. a and c above. e. b and c above. 11. The crest of the tide wave a. lags behind the Moon due to friction. b. follows directly beneath the Moon. c. is dragged in advance of the Moon by friction with the Earth. d. follows directly beneath the Sun. e. moves in advance of the Sun. 12. If you observe a diurnal high tide at 2:00 P.M., the next high tide should occur at about what time the next day? a. 2:50 P.M. b. 2:25 A.M. c. 1:10 P.M. d. 3:50 P.M. e. 3:25 A.M. 13. The wavelength of a diurnal tide is a. half the circumference of the Earth. b. twice the circumference of the Earth. c. half that of a semidiurnal tide. d. twice that of a semidiurnal tide. e. a and d above. 14. It takes about _____ days for the Moon to orbit the Earth. a. 30 b. 29.5 c. 31.5 d. 28 e. 32.5 127 15. The highest latitude at which the Moon is directly overhead is a. 30 degrees. b. 32.5 degrees. c. 23.5 degrees. d. 28.5 degrees. e. 15 degrees. 16. At the equator, a point on the sea floor is rotating to the east at a speed that is a. roughly twice that of a free tide wave. b. about the same as that of a free tide wave. c. roughly half that of a free tide wave. d. the point on the sea floor is stationary. e. none of the above. 17. Lines drawn to mark the location of the tide crest at set time intervals are called a. temporal crest lines. b. cocrest lines. c. cotidal lines. d. isocrests. e. corange lines. 18. Because the tide wave is a shallow-water wave a. water particle motion extends to the sea floor. b. water particle motion occurs in an elliptical orbit. c. the horizontal component of particle motion exceeds the vertical. d. all of the above. e. none of the above. 19. The rotary standing tide wave in the Northern Hemisphere has a crest that a. moves from west to east across the basin. b. moves counterclockwise. c. moves from east to west across the basin. d. moves clockwise. e. none of the above. 20. The period of the change in declination of the Moon is a. 18.6 years. b. 29.5 days. c. 2 weeks. d. 12.5 years. e. 4.5 months. Visual Aids: Test Your Understanding of the Figures 1. Take a look at figure 10.6 to see why the period of a semidiurnal tide is longer than 12 hours. Because the Moon moves eastward in its orbit about the Earth by only 12 degrees/day, it takes 29.5 days to make one complete revolution. 2. Looking at figure 10.7 can you determine the relative positions of the Earth, Moon, and Sun that would produce the lowest tidal range and the highest tidal range? Why do you think that the full Moon occurs when it is on the opposite side of the Earth from the Sun. What about the new Moon? 3. Compare figures 10.11 and 10.12. Locate the amphidromic points in figure 10.11 and then locate these same positions in figure 10.12. What do the corange lines tell you about amphidromic points? 128 Study Problems 1. Looking at figure 10.2 in the text determine the difference (in feet) in water level at San Diego between: a. higher high water and lower high water b. higher high water and higher low water c. higher high water and lower low water d. higher high water and mean tide level e. higher high water and the tidal datum 2. If the length of a solar day is exactly 24 hours and the length of a tidal day is exactly 50 minutes longer, then through how many degrees does the Moon move eastward in its orbit around the Earth in a single day? 3. The tides have such enormous wavelengths that they should travel as shallow-water waves (take another look at Major Concept X in chapter 9). Given that the acceleration of gravity is 9.8 m/s2 and the average depth of the oceans is 4000 meters, what is the expected velocity of the tide wave as a shallow-water wave? We also learned that the velocity of a wave is related to its wavelength and period (see Major Concept IV in chapter 9). In a semidiurnal tide the wavelength is roughly 20,000 km and the period is 12 hours 25 minutes. Calculate the velocity of the wave in m/s using this method and compare it to the previous answer. What is going on here? Answer Key for Key Terms and Test Your Recall KEY TERMS cotidal line (X) tidal bore (XII) low water (II) tidal day (IV) free wave (IX) diurnal tide (I) ebb tide (II) harmonic analysis (XIII) amphidromic point (XI) minus tide (II) slack water (II) rotary standing tide wave (XI) flood tide (II) corange line (XI) dynamic tidal analysis (IX) equilibrium tidal theory (III) tidal datum (II) FILL IN THE BLANK 1. semidiurnal 2. higher high water 3. tidal datum 4. ebb 5. centrifugal 6. Moon 7. squared, cubed 8. 24, 50 9. spring 10. 46 11. minus 12. flood 13. dynamic tidal analysis 14. range 15. cotidal 16. magnitudes, periods 17. diurnal 18. slack 19. 12 20. 5 TRUE - FALSE 1.F 2.T 3.F 4.T 5.F 6.F 7.T 8.F 9.T 10.T 11.F 12.F 13.F 14.T 15.T 16.F 17.F 18.T 19.T 20.T MULTIPLE CHOICE 1.b 2.d 3.e 4.a 5.c 6.b 7.b 8.e 9.b 10.d 11.c 12.a 13.d 14.b 15.d 16.a 17.c 18.d 19.b 20.a STUDY PROBLEMS 1. a. 2.1 b. 4.8 c. 6.7 d. 3.2 e. 6.4 2. 12.5 degrees 3. a. 198 m/s b. 447 m/s c. The tide wave travels at an unexpectedly high velocity because it is not a free wave but a forced wave. 129
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Natural Resources
Robert Shiller: 'I Think Now Could Be A Good Time To Invest In Oil'
Yale economics professor Robert Shiller spotted the U.S. housing bubble last decade and the dot-com bubble a few years earlier. And these days, the "crash prophet's" observations have led him to think crude oil may be a good investment. According to an Agence France-Presse article from March 23:
Asked how he would invest his money, Shiller replied: "It's difficult. But I think now could be a good time to invest in oil or in a rise in oil prices," he said.
"Prices are very low and there are a lot of reasons to assume that they won't stay low. That's what I've bet on," Shiller said…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Dr. Shiller repeated his belief that European stocks were more reasonably priced than U.S. equities. From the AFP piece:
Shiller said European stocks, including German stocks, were still a bargain, compared with US stocks.
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
I blogged back on February 19:
The Nobel Prize-winning economist was on CNBC's Squawk Box TV show Wednesday and talked equities (among other things) with Becky Quick, Andrew Ross Sorkin, and Brian Sullivan. From their exchange:
SHILLER: The things that is really striking- and maybe not today- is the low-level, long-term interest rates. It is just stunning how low they have gotten. Recently, the 30-year TIPS real rate was at half-a-percent. That's incredible for 30 years. And that is pushing the stock market up. But it's not the kind of euphoria that we saw notably in 2000.
SORKIN: What percentage do you have in equities?
SHILLER: It's about half.
SORKIN: Half?
SHILLER: Yeah.
SORKIN: Have you changed it recently? Will you change it?
SHILLER: Yeah. I'm thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat.
SORKIN: You are?
SHILLER: Yeah. I think Europe is so much cheaper.
SORKIN: And you'd buy big multinationals based in Europe? You'd buy smaller companies in Europe? What would you do?
SHILLER: Well, what I have done is I've invested in Italy indexes. Spain index.
SORKIN: Are you hedging currency?
SHILLER: No, I'm not.
Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
"ROBERT SHILLER: It's not euphoria driving this stock market boom- it's fear." Agence France-Presse. 23 Mar. 2015. (http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-fear-behind-current-stock-market-highs-nobel-laureate-2015-3?utm_source=gatehouse&utm_medium=referral). 28 Mar. 2015.
Robert Kiyosaki: 2002 Prediction Of Huge Stock Market Crash Next Year 'Holding Course'
"'Rich Dad's Prophecy'- [Robert Kiyosaki's] most recent book- predicts that the market will crash around 2016 when the oldest Baby Boomers start cashing out their 401(k) plans. Individuals whose savings are locked into 401(k) plans will suffer because these retirement plans, aren't flexible and don't do well in a bear market…"
-CNN.com, October 30, 2002
How many readers out there know who Robert Kiyosaki is? The American entrepreneur, educator, and investor was quite popular back in the early 2000s. I first encountered him while watching public television around that time, sharing financial and investment strategies taught to him by his rich "Dad" and found in his 2000 New York Times best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad. Kiyosaki went on to write a number of books, including Rich Dad's Prophecy in 2002.
Last Tuesday, Robert Kiyosaki appeared on the Alex Jones Show. Kiyosaki talked about his new book, Second Chance, and other subjects, including a certain prediction made about the U.S. stock market next year. From their exchange:
JONES: The world is just crazy at this point. Give us your prognosis for the planet. There's obviously opportunities for those of us that are studying it. I mean, I going to do better probably than ever as things get worse. But I'm not happy about that, because I know it's hurting the average person.
KIYOSAKI: Amen. Alex, I would say exactly the same thing. It doesn't make me happy that I'm getting richer and richer, and I see my friends getting poorer and poorer. I'm very concerned right now about my generation- the Baby Boom generation, the biggest generation in history. And they bought that program of put all your money in a 401(k) and invest for the long term. Now, I wrote a book called Rich Dad's Prophecy back in 2002. That was 13 years ago. And I said the biggest stock market crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. I was kind of guessing. But unfortunately, I didn't write it to be right. I wrote it out of concern. If I'm correct that in 2002 what I said the biggest market crash was coming in 2016, that means millions and millions of Baby Boomers, their kids, their grandkids, will feel the effect of that when their retirement savings are wiped out. I hope I'm wrong. But so far, my numbers look accurate and it's holding course right now. So I don't write because I want to be rich or poke fun or want to be righteous. I am rather concerned about my fellow citizens.
"But so far, my numbers look accurate and it's holding course right now."
Disturbing. Kiyosaki added later on in the interview:
I'm just concerned about this possible- I hope it doesn't happen- but if my "rich Dad" was correct, again, published in 2002 Rich Dad's Prophecy predicted the biggest crash in the history of the world was coming in 2016. And that's why I wrote Rich Dad Poor Dad, that's why I speak, that's why I write, that's why I take on the media. But I'm very concerned for my [fellow] citizens. Look, Alex, what happens? Let's say I'm right- hopefully I'm not. And millions of Baby Boomers lose their pensions, their homes, their jobs- they lose everything. What is the ripple effect throughout the world going to mean to that? We've never been here before. Never before has the U.S. dollar, one currency, been the reserve currency of the world- and we're printing it. The Europeans are printing, Japanese are printing. And you've got to look at this and go, "This is not good." So that's my concern right now.
"Great Economic Collapse & Currency Meltdown Is Coming
Says Financier Robert Kiyosaki"
YouTube Video
So how is Robert Kiyosaki going to fend off the crisis he still sees coming? While taking phone calls from listeners, Kiyosaki revealed:
I like silver personally. I love gold. I have a lot of gold and silver.
Further insight was provided right before the holidays, when Eve Fisher of The Sydney Morning Herald reported:
"The world is in very serious trouble and the next 20 years will not be like the past two decades," says Kiyosaki, who predicted the downfall of Lehman Brothers investment bank in 2008 and the ensuing GFC.
"I foresee a global currency crash, like the one that ruined Germany in the 1920s, which will wipe out the poor and the middle class – as the rich get richer.
"People will see that money and shares are not real wealth, just paper, and the way to survive is by acquiring assets – like property, resources, gold and other precious metals."
Farmers will benefit as land and food become highly valued commodities, he says…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's note: I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein)
Fisher, Eve. "Robert Kiyosaki says to prepare for the worst." The Sydney Morning Herald. 10 Nov. 2014. (http://www.smh.com.au/business/robert-kiyosaki-says-to-prepare-for-the-worst-20141111-11jyhr.html). 21 Feb. 2015.
Robert Kiyosaki's latest book…
Jeremy Grantham Explains Oil Price Decline And How He's Playing It
Jeremy Grantham, the British-born investment strategist and founder/former chairman of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (oversees $120 billion in client assets as of September 30, 2014), has just released his latest quarterly letter on the GMO website. Grantham, whose individual clients have included current Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, focused on plummeting crude oil prices this time around. He wrote:
The simplest argument for the oil price decline is for once correct. A wave of new U.S. fracking oil could be seen to be overtaking the modestly growing global oil demand. It became clear that OPEC, mainly Saudi Arabia, must cut back production if the price were to stay around $100 a barrel, which many, including me, believe is necessary to justify continued heavy spending to find traditional oil. The Saudis declined to pull back their production and the oil market entered into glut mode, in which storage is full and production continues above demand…
Why did the Saudis choose this route? To drive prices down and force the U.S. fracking industry to put a cork in their operations, Grantham argued. He added:
In my opinion, no economic implosion is likely just yet and, even if the pessimists are right eventually, that crunch era will be ushered in by very volatile and rising oil prices, not three years of abnormal stability followed by a sudden bust! Right now the mad rush to produce fracking oil in the U.S. (one might reasonably say "overproduce") has given us a global timeout from the inevitable oil squeeze, which in my opinion is now likely to arrive in about five years but which, without U.S. fracking, was already upon us…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
So the "inevitable oil squeeze" comes in approximately five years. But a decade out from now, Grantham penned:
Most likely though, beyond 10 years electric cars and alternative energy will begin to eat into potential oil demand, threatening longer-term oil prices….
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Which shouldn't really surprise readers of "Why We Were So Surprised" when the "crash prophet" revealed:
But right now we have a substantial excess of production, and oil demand is notoriously inelastic to price in the short term – people will not be leaping into their cars to celebrate lower gas prices. But with time they may drive an extra 1-2% percent here and elsewhere and the excess will slowly clear: possibly by mid-year and almost certainly by the end of next year. After supply and demand come into balance, the price initially is likely to rise slowly, held in check by the increasing amounts of U.S. fracking oil that can be profitably produced at each new higher price level. It is this rapid response rate that will make the frackers the key marginal suppliers. This is a sensitive and, I believe, unknowable equation as to precise timing, but this phase will likely end only when fracking production, even at much higher prices, tops out, as it most likely will in the next five years. After that, I believe the equation will revert to the relatively more stable and more knowable one of the 2011 to 2013 era, in which the price of oil will be the full cost of finding and developing incremental traditional oil, which by then is likely to be over $100 a barrel. (In the interest of full disclosure I personally have been and will continue to be a moderate buyer of oil futures six to eight years out, for reasons that should be clear from the above. It should also be clear that such a bet can lose easily enough.)
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Once again, good stuff from Grantham, which you can read in its entirety on the GMO website here (.pdf format, starts page 7).
Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Peter Schiff: Get Out Of Dollars And Own Gold, Silver, And Stocks In Countries With Much Sounder Economies
Early last month I blogged about an interview series with well-known investor Jim Rogers on the Wall Street Daily website that was conducted by Robert Williams, founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service. Williams followed that up with a three-part interview of Euro Pacific Capital's Peter Schiff that began on New Year's Eve and finished just yesterday. Just like that Rogers series, it was pretty insightful stuff.
On December 31, 2014, the Wall Street Daily published "The Real Earthquake Is About to Hit." That was followed on January 7, 2015, by "When Will the Dollar Bubble Burst?" From an exchange between Williams and Schiff:
WILLIAMS: So what's our readers to do with their money, Peter? Their 401(k) s, their retirement accounts, their savings accounts? I mean, the markets aren't safe, the banks aren't safe, and the dollar isn't safe. How can someone possibly protect themselves?
SCHIFF: Well, I mean, there's no way to protect yourself really from the volatility, because, you know, you gotta be – the volatility's here, but you know, long term, if you understand what's gonna happen, then what – it's pretty easy – what to do, and that's get out of, you know, dollars, and own gold and silver, and own equity stocks in countries that have much sounder economies, you know, structurally sound economies underlying, you know, their markets and, you know, buy a lot of value. You can't just buy a lot of hyped-up assets that have been propped up by cheap money and the bubble.
So you have to be in the right asset classes, be in the right currencies, be in the right countries, and I think, in the long run, you know, you'll come out on top but it's kinda difficult for a lot of people to do because, in the short run, you know, it's the – you know, the people that are getting it wrong, that have been having their investment strategy validated by price auction because, you know, they have a lot of company. The cloud has got it wrong. There's not many people in the scheme of things that actually understand what's going to happen or, you know, if they do, they're certainly not, you know, investing for that end game. They're trying to – you know, they're trying to finesse this and they're trying to, you know, dance while the music's playing, but they're hoping that by the time it stops, they'll have a safe seat somewhere…
(Editor's note : Bold added for emphasis)
Yesterday, in "There Are No Safe Havens Left," Schiff shared with readers where he thought commodities, crude oil, and gold are going in 2015 and beyond.
Head on over to the Wall Street Daily website to read Part 1, 2, and 3 of this nicely-done interview.
Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Marc Faber: 'The President, For Whatever Reason, Might Not Finish His Term'
This year's Barron's Roundtable convened on January 12, 2015, at the Harvard Club of New York. And one member of the Roundtable, Swiss-born investment advisor and fund manager Marc Faber, brought up some interesting scenarios for the coming year. Dr. Faber told Roundtable participants:
Many surprises could occur in the next 12 months. The president, for whatever reason, might not finish his term. China's president, Xi Jinping, doesn't speak as much as Obama, but when he speaks, he makes sense. He is a powerful person. In the past 45 years, China has pursued a policy of nonintervention in other countries' domestic affairs. But that might change because of its oil interests in the Sudan. China is the largest supplier of troops to the U.N. peacekeeping forces. Its troops are conveniently placed next to Sudan's oil facilities. China also has a large interest in the Iraqi oilfields. If ISIS moves toward southern Iraq, which it currently can't do, China will protect its interests. The Chinese are becoming more assertive in their geopolitical ambitions. They must ensure a supply of natural resources, such as oil, copper, and iron ore. In their view, the Americans have no interests in Southeast Asia and eventually will have to move out. It is unclear how this will be achieved, or when, but it probably won't happen peacefully…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Thailand-based Faber, like fellow "crash prophets" Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff, recognizes that the West's economic power is steadily being transferred to the East. He added in New York City:
Even if Asia doesn't grow much this year, economic power is shifting to Asia. The Indian economy could grow by 5%-6% in 2015, although the Indians would say I am too pessimistic. Nonetheless, a 5% growth rate is enormous, compared to zero in Europe.
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Heineken Commercial "The Date" feat. Mohammed Rafi, Jaan Pehechaan Ho (1965)
YouTube Video
You can read the entire Roundtable discussion on the Barron's website here.
Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: Buy China, Japan, Russia, Agriculture
Last Thursday, I talked about a recent interview I listened to of well-known investor Jim Rogers. Robert Williams, the founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service Wall Street Daily, was asking the questions.
Apparently, I didn't hear the entire exchange between the two. Williams got the former investing partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund to share with listeners what stocks he's buying/intends to buy these days. From the Wall Street Daily website last Friday:
WILLIAMS: Do you have confidence in the U.S. stock market?
ROGERS: Well Bob, the U.S. stock market is making an all-time high. As you know, it's up more highs this year than any year since 1929. That's not a bottom. I'd rather buy – I'm buying shares in other markets around the world. I mentioned Russia… China, I bought more Chinese shares yesterday… Japan, I want to buy some more if I get time off the phone to buy more Japanese shares. You know the Chinese and Japanese markets are down 60% from their all-time highs. America's making all-time highs as it did in 1929. I don't know if these other markets are better, but I know buying low and selling high often turns out to be right.
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
China, Japan, Russia. Check.
And agriculture.
On November 25, Jim Rogers appeared on the Bloomberg Television show Countdown. Host Mark Barton noted the chairman of Rogers Holdings is now an independent director of PhosAgro, Europe's biggest phosphate fertilizer maker. Rogers shared with viewers:
So I started investing in Russia. I found this company. I'm bullish on agriculture. I'm bullish on these guys. They're young, smart people. So here I am.
When asked what else he was bullish on in Russia, Rogers said:
I've been buying shares of the Moscow Stock Exchange… The easy way is the index, so I bought the ETF, as well. There are various ways to play Russia. Russia's hated. In my view, wrongly so. And I hope, that all this is going to pass and I'll make a lot of money.
On China, the Singapore-based investor noted:
I'm buying shares in China… Since the economic plenum of November of 2013- you know the Chinese said, "These are the areas of the economy we're going to emphasize." Mark, if the government is going to put a lot of money into those areas, I am too. They've got more money than I do. They're smarter than I am. So I'm investing with them.
When pressed about other areas he was investing in, Rogers pointed out:
The markets that I have been investing in this year- new things- are Japan, Russia, China, agriculture. That's where I've been putting my- those are all depressed markets. Why would you buy the U.S. at an all-time high, when you can buy Japan 60 percent below its all-time high, or China, 60 percent below its all-time high?
He added the following about Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and "Abenomics":
He's going to ruin Japan. But in the next two or three years, I hope he's going to make me a lot of money. And the investment community. He's making stocks go up.
YouTube Video
You can listen/read (transcript provided) to the rest of that Rogers interview by Robert Williams on the Wall Street Daily website here.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers On Best Ways To Invest In Agriculture
On Monday, I blogged about well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers and his steadfast belief that agriculture is where big money will be made in the future.
Late last night I was on the website of the Wall Street Daily website listening to an interview of Rogers that was conducted by Robert Williams, founder of the Baltimore, Maryland-based investment research/market commentary service. Considering what I just wrote, it was what the commodities "guru" had to say about the best ways to invest in agriculture that grabbed my attention. From their exchange:
WILLIAMS: Jim, what's the most effective route into agriculture for our readers interested in playing this long-term bull market?
ROGERS: Well, there are many ways to do it. The best way is to buy a farm- become a farmer if you really want to get rich because I explained before, some of the serious, serious, key fundamental problems in agriculture. So if you like the outdoors, if you think you'd be good at it, you might consider becoming a farmer.
Now most of your readers are probably not going to become farmers, but that's the way. Or buy a farm and lease it to a farmer- somebody who's competent. You can buy stocks. Certainly you can buy stocks. If you buy the right stocks- seed companies, fertilizer companies, or whatever- you'll make a lot of money.
You can buy countries. Some countries are more agriculturally-oriented than others. Pakistan is a country that lives and dies on cotton more than anything else. So it depends on the country.
If you're going to buy a lake house, I would buy my lake house in Oklahoma, not in Massachusetts, because stocks are at all-time highs. And we just discussed what's been happening in commodities. So lake houses in Oklahoma or Nebraska are probably a lot cheaper than in Massachusetts. You can get a Lamborghini dealership in Iowa, because the farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis, in my view, in the future.
Or you can buy- for most people, obviously the best way is to buy an index. Many studies have shown that index investing is far and away the best way to invest in anything- stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, anything else. And there are plenty of exchange-traded products where it makes it very easy these days to invest in commodities.
On buying a lake house in Oklahoma or Nebraska, the former investing partner of George Soros said something similar in an May 23, 2003, interview on the Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE TV program. Nailing the U.S. housing bubble a couple years before it burst, Rogers talked property (with an eye towards natural resources) with co-anchor Karen Gibbs. From the interview:
GIBBS: How about real estate?
ROGERS: Well, real estate, Karen, depends on where you are. There is a mania, a housing bubble going on. But if you're going to buy a second home, buy a lake house in Iowa, because Iowa is a natural-resources-based state. I'm bullish on agriculture. I'm bullish on natural resources. So houses in Iowa will probably do well. Don't buy it in Boston. Boston is a financial town. I'm not that optimistic on financial companies or financial areas. So buy in Oklahoma, buy in Colorado, buy in states where the economy is going to get better. Stay away from places like New York and Boston — where I live — because real estate there will probably not do well.
In a Barron's interview that appeared on the publication's website on October 12, 2013 (blogged about here), the Singapore-based investor who correctly-called the commodity bull market that began in 1999 expanded:
I could buy farmland and become a farmer—although I would be hopeless at it—or buy farmland and lease it out. Buy shares in farms, farm equipment, fertilizer and seed companies that trade on exchanges around the world. Stock markets in agriculture-producing countries should do better than those in agriculture-importing ones. Retailers, restaurants, banks in agricultural areas will do well. Buy a vacation home on a lake in Iowa, not Massachusetts.
Good stuff. You can listen to/read (transcript provided) that recent Wall Street Daily interview on their website here. And for a trip down memory lane, that Wall $treet Week with FORTUNE exchange here.
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Jim Rogers Details Russian Investments, Shares Outlook For Developed Economies
While searching for the latest activity from the "crash prophets" this morning I came across an insightful piece on well-known investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers on FT Alphaville. Izabella Kaminska reported on the Financial Times (UK) daily news and commentary blog today:
Rogers' Russian investments now include stakes in fertiliser maker Phosagro, airliner Aeroflot, a Russia ETF and the Russian stock exchange, but he said was looking to expand into different sectors as well…
Rogers' bullish view on Russia contrasts significantly with his outlook for Europe, Japan and the United States. Regarding Japan, Rogers proposed that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was doing "terrible things" to Japan and advised young Japanese to leave the country as soon as they possibly could to avoid losses. However, in the short-term, he believed there were also opportunities in the stock market as a result of the extraordinary central bank action.
Regarding the Eurozone, Rogers said he didn't own any euros, nor did he want to because he would rather buy Russia.
As ever, his outlook for developed economies remained bleak on the basis that central banks had debased the currency and that government statistics were lying about the true state of inflation in the land…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
It should come as no surprise to regular readers of Survival And Prosperity that the former investing partner of George Soros has been investing in Russia (blogged about in May here).
Rogers shared with the Financial Times his reasons for selecting the above Russian investments. Good stuff by Kaminska and FT Alphaville, which you can read in its entirety here.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Sino-Russian Natural Gas Deal Blow To U.S. Dollar Supremacy?
"The Obama administration is playing down an increasingly warm relationship between its main global rivals, China and Russia, that it may have inadvertently encouraged.
U.S. officials maintain there is nothing to fear from the growing alliance between Moscow and Beijing, even as each throws its weight around in neighboring regions like Ukraine and the South China Sea and at international forums like the United Nations, where on Thursday they double-vetoed the latest in a series of Security Council resolutions on Syria.
Yet when coupled with growing cooperation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in other areas- notably, a new $400 billion natural gas deal and apparent agreement on the crisis in Ukraine- many believe Russia and China may now or may soon represent a powerful new alliance challenging not only the United States, but also the Western democratic tradition that the U.S. has championed globally…"
-Associated Press, May 23, 2014
You may have heard about that $400 billion natural gas deal that was just struck between China and Russia. Or maybe you didn't, as I've noticed the mainstream media hasn't really been talking about it too much. Most of the outlets that did neglected to talk about the potential ramifications for the U.S. dollar.
There were exceptions. From the BBC News website on May 22:
Some papers are also analysing the impact of the deal on the world currency market.
A commentary in the Beijing Youth Daily says the deal will probably encourage more countries to not trade in US dollars if China and Russia decide to switch to clearing payments in Russian roubles and the yuan.
"The world economy and finance will then embark on a process to get rid of the US dollar, and the dominance of the dollar will gradually lose its support. The US will then face more challenges in its ability to control global economics and politics," it says…
From Liam Halligan on The Telegraph (UK) website yesterday:
The real danger, in my view, is rather more abstract — but deadly important nevertheless. If Russia's "pivot to Asia" results in Moscow and Beijing trading oil between them in a currency other than the dollar, that will represent a major change in how the global economy operates and a marked loss of power for the US and its allies.
With the dollar as the world's petrocurrency, it also remains the reserve currency of choice for central banks globally. As such, the US is currently able to borrow with "exorbitant privilege", as it has for decades, simply printing money to pay off foreign creditors.
With China now the world's biggest oil importer and the US increasingly stressing domestic production, the days of dollar-priced energy, and therefore dollar-dominance, look numbered. Beijing has recently struck numerous agreements with major trading partners such as Brazil that bypass the dollar. Moscow and Beijing have also set up rouble-yuan swap facilities that push the greenback out of the picture.
If Russia and China now decide to drop dollar energy pricing totally, America's reserve currency status could unravel fast, seriously undermining the US Treasury market and causing a world of pain for the West. This won't happen tomorrow or next year. It's unlikely even by 2020. But by announcing this deal, Russia and China turned the screw half a twist more…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
Then there's this from Max Keiser, an American filmmaker and host of the Keiser Report, a financial show on RT. From The Washington Times website earlier today:
He said the $400 billion, 30-year deal will further the strategic goals of Moscow and Beijing to diminish the status of the U.S. dollar by conducting world trade in critical commodities such as oil and gas using other currencies.
Russia is the world's biggest producer of commodities such as crude oil, gold and titanium. China is the world's biggest consumer of these commodities.
Both countries have chafed for years at having to conduct purchases and sales in dollars, as is customary worldwide. The gas deal announced in Beijing on Wednesday would be the first major commodities contract to be settled in Russian rubles and Chinese yuan rather than dollars.
"This means the U.S. dollar's days as the world reserve currency are numbered," said Mr. Keiser, noting that Russia and China have been investing heavily in gold.
Many analysts question whether Moscow and Beijing can succeed in displacing the dollar as the world's reserve currency. If that happens, however, it likely would usher in a period of global financial instability and force Americans to pay much more for the massive amounts of imported energy, Mr. Keiser said…
(Editor's note: Bold added for emphasis)
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit- the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, the sister company to The Economist newspaper- on May 22, it has been reported payments for the gas will be made in Chinese yuan rather than U.S. dollars.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
"China media: Russia gas deal." BBC News. 22 May 2014. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-27514395). 25 May 2014.
Halligan, Liam. "Russia-China gas deal could ignite a shift in global trading." The Telegraph. 24 May. 2014. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/10854595/Russia-China-gas-deal-could-ignite-a-shift-in-global-trading.html). 25 May 2014.
Hill, Patrice. "Russia's Putin gains strategic victory with Chinese natural gas deal." The Washington Times. 25 May 2014. (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/may/25/russias-putin-gains-strategic-victory-with-chinese/). 25 My 2014.
"The Sino-Russian gas deal." Economist Intelligence Unit. 22 May 2014. (http://www.eiu.com/industry/article/431836627/the-sino-russian-gas-deal/2014-05-22) 25 May 2014.
Jim Rogers: 'This Is The Time To Buy Russia'
Investor, author, and financial commentator Jim Rogers has been bullish on Russia for some time now. In fact, by the time I first blogged about his optimism for the country back in February 2013, he had already invested there.
Despite the recent crisis in the Crimea and subsequent sell-off of Russian assets by international investors, the former investing partner of George Soros hasn't changed his mind about the former Communist nation. Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Daniel Bases reported on the Reuters website Sunday:
"Russia's stock market right now is one of the cheapest in the world, and probably one of the most hated," said investor and commodities guru Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, in Singapore. "This is the time to buy Russia."
(Editor: Bold added for emphasis)
Chavez-Dreyfuss and Bases added later in the piece:
Rogers, who has been investing in Russia for the last 1-1/2 years, said he bought Russian stocks last week. He said if more sanctions are imposed and the equities market declines further, there would be more buying opportunities in Russia.
Rogers said he is looking for non-energy companies – a tall order considering the RTS Index of 51 leading Russian companies is heavily skewed toward energy (58 percent of the index) and basic materials (13 percent)…
(Editor: Bold added for emphasis)
In January 2013, the Singapore-based investor identified Russia as one market holding the best prospects for investors. Next month, Rogers made it known he had bought Russian bonds and currency. By September, he revealed he had also bought Russian ETFs, but explained:
I don't want to buy their oil and gas plays because I own enough oil and gas. I'm looking for other kinds of companies in Russia.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Chavez-Dreyfuss, Gertrude and Bases, Daniel. "Analysis: Russia sell-off spurs hunt for bargains." Reuters.com. 30 Mar. 2014. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/30/us-emergingmarkets-russia-investing-anal-idUSBREA2T03720140330). 31 Mar. 2014.
Peter Schiff's Investment Advice Before The Fed Reverses, Increases QE
While I'm jonesing for a new entry on The Schiff Report YouTube video blog, I did watch Euro Pacific Capital CEO and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff on CNBC's Closing Bell on January 28. Schiff, who correctly-called the U.S. housing bust and 2008 global economic crisis, told viewers the U.S. economy is actually doing "lousy" and that he thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course on quantitative easing this year, increasing the levels of "stimulus." When asked what one should do with their money, Schiff advised:
You should be buying gold. You should be buying mining stocks. You should be investing abroad. You should be getting out of the U.S. dollar. Because ultimately, that's going to be the big casualty here. When the Fed surprises everybody and does more QE, and people realize the box that we're in- that it's QE Infinity, that there is no exit strategy, that exit is impossible, that it's ever larger doses of this monetary heroin- the bottom is going to drop out of the dollar. You know, an economy that lives by QE dies by QE. We better be prepared for that.
"Yellen Will Reverse Taper and Increase QE"
YouTube Video
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jeremy Grantham: Farmland And Forestry Favorite Long-Term Resources
One "crash prophet" post down, one more to go tonight (I'll update the "Crash Prophets" page once I'm done with both). Next up is Jeremy Grantham. He's out with a new quarterly investment letter? Nope. But I did manage to catch an interview with the British-born investment strategist that was published on The Globe and Mail (Canada) website on January 30. From their exchange with Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO):
How do you play this sort of environment?
There is no easy answer, and anyone who thinks there is one is either ignorant or a crook. If you get out too soon, you'll be victimized as an old fuddy-duddy. If you stay in too long, you'll be just another trend-follower. But we know what the Fed does, and we know what [incoming Fed chair] Janet Yellen thinks. She says the market is not badly overpriced, which means she's not going to get disturbed if it were 20% or 30% higher. Consequently, I don't think that is unlikely.
Is this bubble-and-bust cycle one that can and should be avoided?
Of course it can and should be avoided. But by appointing Janet Yellen, you know there is no inclination on the part of officialdom to change the game. Bernanke and Yellen are guaranteed extensions of what I think of as the Greenspan experiment in stimulus and relatively lax regulation. It is a totally failed experiment, with enormous pain. Will they never learn?
"It is a totally failed experiment, with enormous pain. Will they never learn?"
Back around Thanksgiving, I pointed out the following in Grantham's last investment letter (covering Q3 2013):
In "Ignoble Prizes and Appointments," Grantham predicted yet another market "bust" shortly. Grantham wrote:
But back to Yellen, who has happily gone along with the failed Fed policy of hoping madly for a different outcome despite repeating exactly the same thing. The past consequences of this strategy have been so dire on two occasions and threaten to be just as bad again sometime within two or three years.
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Getting back to that Globe and Mail piece, there was this investing nugget:
What's your favourite long-term resource?
Forestry and farmland, if you can find those properties that have the least overpricing. They would tend to be overseas, in reasonably stable countries. Unless I could get a share in the Moroccan government's phosphate enterprise, in which case I would do it with a quarter of my net worth and feed it to my grandchildren.
Grantham, whose individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney, talked about his "feeling about the state of the world," environmental issues related to investing, stock picking, and timber as well in the remainder of the discussion, which you can read in its entirety on The Globe and Mail's website here.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Retired BP Geologist Warns Global Oil Production Declining Over 4 Percent Annually
It's been a long time since I last talked about peak oil production. Peak what? Yeah, the mainstream media would rather run stories about alternative energy and "unconventional" oil production, as if it will somehow make up for declining "conventional" oil production before we're hit with another energy crunch.
I've been following this topic for close to a decade now. And some pretty informed individuals have deduced not only is the era of "cheap" crude oil gone, but global oil production is in the midst of a steady decline. Dr. Nafeez Ahmed wrote on The Guardian (UK) website on December 23:
A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of "continuous recession" and increased risk of conflict and hunger.
At a lecture on 'Geohazards' earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.
Dr. Miller critiqued the official industry line that global reserves will last 53 years at current rates of consumption, pointing out that "peaking is the result of declining production rates, not declining reserves." Despite new discoveries and increasing reliance on unconventional oil and gas, 37 countries are already post-peak, and global oil production is declining at about 4.1% per year, or 3.5 million barrels a day (b/d) per year…
(Editor's note: Italics added for emphasis)
Dr. Miller, who used to prepare the annual BP in-house projections of future oil supply, not only agrees with the conservative conclusions of an earlier study by the government-funded UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) which predicted "a sustained decline in global conventional production appears probable before 2030 and there is significant risk of this beginning before 2020," but is dismissive of shale oil and gas preventing a decline in global oil production.
Dr. Ahmed wrote an incredibly insightful piece, which you should read in its entirety over at The Guardian website here, since this really isn't on the radar of the American press despite EIA data showing it should be a concern.
By Christopher E. Hill
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Jeremy Grantham's Latest Investment Advice
It's been a while since I've blogged about Jeremy Grantham, the co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co. (GMO). To be fair, the British-born investment advisor has been taking a break from his popular quarterly investment letter that's published on the GMO website. For those of you who aren't familiar with Mr. Grantham, he's designated one of this blog's "crash prophets" along with Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and Peter Schiff due to his special talent for correctly-calling the direction of the financial markets. He so good that individual clients have included Secretary of State John Kerry and former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Grantham was the subject of a September 20 article in The Wall Street Journal in which Ian Salisbury asked him about investment-related topics, such as the depletion of natural resources on Earth. From the Q and A session:
Q: What are investors supposed to do?
A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc—you name it. I'd be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn't own coal, and I wouldn't own tar sands. It's hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.
So I wouldn't use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own—and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor's point of view is on very good farmland. It's had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you're prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn't be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries—Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it's in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.
Grantham also shared with Salisbury where he thought stocks were heading. Basically, not only does he think equities can go "a lot higher than this" with Fed backing, but they could even reach bubble territory.
It's a really good, insightful interview, capped-off with a discussion about unbridled American optimism, which you can read in its entirety here on The Wall Street Journal website.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
Salisbury, Ian. "Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham." The Wall Street Journal. 20 Sep. 2013. (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323665504579032934293143524.html). 24 Sep. 2013.
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
Jim Rogers: Chinese Stocks Are 'Getting Closer To A Buy'
This morning I read a pretty good interview of well-known investor Jim Rogers that took place on June 13 on Fusion MarketSite, the official blog for New York City-based financial services holding company Fusion Analytics Holdings LLC. The former investing partner of George Soros shared the following nuggets with readers:
• Still bullish on China, but noted they have a water problem. Rogers suggested:
If you want to make a lot of money find companies that are working to fix that problem.
• Chinese stocks are "getting closer to a buy." Rogers revealed:
I bought a few shares on Friday. Their market is getting to the point it should be bought.
• Thinks bond markets worldwide are in a bubble. He's short junk bonds.
• While still bullish on agriculture, suggested:
Before we talk agriculture, I would look at natural gas, as any commodity that has that big a collapse should be looked at.
• And as for his home these days, Jim Rogers thinks Singapore is becoming the Switzerland of the East. He explained:
Overall, Singapore is doing well. Singapore is becoming the new Switzerland as its sits right next to China and has been helped by problems with offshore havens like Switzerland and Cyprus. It will be the fastest growing money center in the next 10 years.
You can read the entire interview on Fusion MarketSite here.
By Christopher E. Hill, Editor
Survival And Prosperity (www.survivalandprosperity.com)
(Editor's notes: Info added to "Crash Prophets" page; I am not responsible for any personal liability, loss, or risk incurred as a consequence of the use and application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein.)
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First, allow me to acknowledge my terrible photography skills. They're just horrible, I know.
But that doesn't matter because this crock pot (or slow cooker, if you prefer) shredded chicken recipe is AMAZING, and that totally makes up for the crap-tastic pictures.
There are a few reasons why this recipe is so dang good and why you need to make it. (The sooner, the better).
1. It's very versatile and can have numerous variations
2. It's cheap
3. It takes only a couple of minutes (tops) to put together
4. Did I mention it's DELICIOUS?
5. It uses my favorite kitchen tool – the crock pot (get 4 more great recipes here)
Now that you know WHY you should make it, let's get to the recipe.


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