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Contrary to the views of some skeptics pursuing their own agendas, Ukraine is ready to fulfill all conditions for the signing in November of the EU Association Agreement, stated president Yanukovych after the latest meeting of the "Visegrad Four" and Ukraine .
According to Yanukovych, the vast majority of European integration laws will be adopted at this week's parliamentary plenary session. "We are well aware that that agenda that Ukraine adopted jointly with the European Commission, should be done before November. Vast majority of laws will be adopted this week."
However, Yanukovych also noted that some laws are in need of expert assessment, including the Venice Commission. In particular, according to Yanukovych, it concerns the law on the prosecutor's office. These laws may be adopted at the beginning of the next session of Parliament in September.
The EU Association Agreement with Ukraine was initialed in 2012. It should be signed at the Eastern Partnership Summit in November 2013 in Vilnius. The EU has repeatedly voiced a number of conditions, including: the reform of the judicial system, the improvement of electoral legislation, the elimination of selective justice and the determination of the imprisoned ex-prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
Let's hope that the Association Agreement and activities within the Eastern Partnership (now priority of Lithuania as rotating presidency country) will help to improvement of political and social rights to people in your country.
BTW, what is your vision? What moves would you expect from EU in relation to non-EU Eastern European countries?
Yours is too complex a question to comment in one post. In terms of EU moves, one cannot help but focus on a looming challenge to the EU represented by Russia's Eurasian customs union. This is and will remain one of the most sensitive issues for most EU member states for years to come. The Eurasian project has been conceived by Russia as a competitor of the EU Eastern Partnership. It follows that the EU should pursue the Association Agreements with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and other Eastern Partnership states or sooner or later they will be coerced into joining Putin's concept.
One cannot ignore that membership in the Eurasian customs union would be politically and economically painful for the elite of these countries. The opposition will not let it happen without destabilising turmoils. The EU Association Agreements should not be seen as a geopolitical weapon. The EU influence is most effective when it encourages reforms in Eastern countries avoiding any notion of threatening others.
Signing the agreement with Ukraine in November, provided the necessary conditions are met, will legally bind the country to the EU and will be a huge step to make Ukraine more European. In order to counter Moscow's pressure (including blackmail) it will be necessary to change the mindset of the people by offering open borders, promoting formal and informal education, encouraging two-way trade.
I am convinced that the Vilnius Summit will be successful. The strategic vision by the Lithuanian leaders, supported by other Ukraine's neighbours in Central Europe, will enable the Eastern Partnership concept to evolve over time. That will constitute a historic progress.
World has become very dynamic that's why making long-term predictions about EU and Eurasian customs union is difficult.
EU may lose its potential as the innovative economy, knowledge-based economy due to fierce competition from populous Asian countries and Eurasian customs union, economy of which would be based on natural resources export, may lose its potential too due to technological changes.
For example, coal mining in Central Europe has collapsed due to competition of shale gas in North America and corresponding drop in demand for coal. It may also effect coal mining in Ukraine and Russia (Donbas and Kuzbas respectively) and later happen to oil too.
Coal mining in Ukraine and Russia (Donbas and Kuzbas respectively) will continue for many, many decades (or longer) to serve the primary steel industry which requires hard coal for production of coke used in blast furnaces to produce iron. There are alternative methods of producing what is known as 'direct reduced iron' which is then refined into steel, but the bulk of the steel world-wide is produced via the blast furnace method that requires hard coking coal. Like it or no, but we remain still in the 'Iron age' despite all the progress made over centuries in science and technology.
But the steel producers can have troubles too. The major Moravian/Silesian producer Vítkovice Steel that was purchased by Russian Evraz in 2005 is closing its operations.
It was even a headline in Russian online news papers:
Of course, steel industry is subject to cyclic variations in demand. This is particularly true of steel mills like Vitkovice, owned by a Russian conglomerate mainly as a point of entry into the lucrative EU market. When corporate decisions are made abroad, be it in Russia, or Germany, or India (Mital owns one of Ukraine's steel mills) subsidiaries are likely to feel cutbacks first. But than, steel has always been a highly competitive business where 'deep pockets' are essential for long term growth. The same applies to most metal producers from aluminum to copper, to nickel to uranium.
Nice article, nice try, but no thanks. Turkey isn't a European country.
Would you like to explain, or is it one of "i don't like, don't care about facts" statement?
One can argue about pros and cons of Turkey joining the EU, including all clever reasons for the membership.
But I am really intrigued to know what facts speak for Turkey's membership?
When somebody says " Turkey isn't a European country.", i would like to know his/hers arguments about it, same as if somebody would just say Turkey must join without any arguments.
I was hoping to hear the facts that prove it european.
There are number of reasons: geographical, political, social. It's a country that wiped out Byzantine Christian empire (and is very proud of it as the movie Fetih 1453 presents) and was in centuries-old conflict with Western Christian European countries. And despite the commendable effort of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the country has never become fully secular and Islamists took the country over again.
In fact, it's quite sad to see that even Egypt seems to be more "Western" in that the army was able to get rid of Islamists and re-establish the secular rule as a result of the street protests.
In Turkey, the army didn't do so during the recent protests and now the Islamist Turkish government has expressed outrage regarding the events in Egypt.Can you imagine any European government that would cheer for Islamists against secular government AND will of people on the streets?!
@ Tomas (further below):
Ukraine is a partner country of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Most of the countries in this program will eventually be offered membership in the European Economic Area (EEA), which is the free trade area including the EU + former EFTA members (such as Norway).
I believe that is a feasible solution to ties those countries in, and doesn't weaken the EU's coherence further.
Allow me to be boring and repeat: for integation to be meaningful, the EU mustn't overstretch.
Josh, what you're talking about is only an economic integration. But common people in countries like Ukraine and even more Belarus need political changes - the preparation for full EU membership of the post-communist members had enormous requirements of legislative harmonization that provided good basis for democratic procedures (of course, their efficient use requires further change of mentality that comes with new generation of politicians and clerks but the prerequisites have been laid).
Bulgaria and Romania became full members before fully completing the process (and have been under supervision) but in case Croatia the process was again very rigorous.
I find pity that people in Christian Eastern European countries should be left at mercy of their local leaders which happens if they have no motivation to make changes.
But who knows, maybe the future will be as portrayed by Yanko Tsvetkov ;-))
Thomas Marny
Regrettably you misunderstood and misinterpreted my earlier post. Since my reference to COMECON had nothing to do with the EU, your response completely misses the target.
Here is part of what I said about Russia's (NOT European Union's) plans:
"..far-reaching ambitions of leaders like Putin and his nationalists friends who advocate reinventing a 21st cent. version of 'Vielikaya Rossiya' ( aka 'GROSS-RUSSIA') under a tentative name of 'Eurasia'. There would be a common economic policy, common external tariff, common border customs, common whatever else, - another version of the old Soviet era COMECON run by Moscow planners."
Tomas Marny
You said to Joshua: "preparation for full EU membership of the post-communist members had enormous requirements of legislative harmonization that provided good basis for democratic procedures "
On this we are 100% in agreement. One needs to add, however, that harmonization of legislative standards in post-communist countries of CEurope (commonly known as 'satelites') was that much easier because most of them had prior experience with legislative provisions in some form of a democratic system. Granted, that 'experience' was far from uniform and/or complete with well known intervals of autocratic rule in several CEuropean countries. Nevertheless, there was no comparison whatsoever with legislative standards, judicial and administrative practices prevailing in the Soviet republics for 70 years under Moscow's central control. It follows, therefore, that the implementation of the 'legislative harmonization' process is expected to be more challenging and more prolonged.
We have been witnessing that 'harmonization effort' in Ukraine for some years now but there is still a long way to go. Let's keep in mind that the 'cream' of young people who graduated from the Soviet era academic institutions at the age of, say 25 - 30 years, that generation is now only about 50 years old. In most cases they occupy leading political and administrative positions being guided by principles and practices of the old bygone era. Of course, some are adapting quicker, others slower, still others will never learn. The adaptation process will take time and needs much more then the parliamentary act of passing new legislation or rewriting manuals of codes and practices. Finally, let's remember the evolution is much safer and more fundmental than a revolution with all the unpredictable consequences.
Joshua Tree
Sounds like you are all but unaware of the very detailed and prolonged negotiation efforts over the past five years or so that resulted in the EU - Ukraine Association Agreement with the signing timetable set for November 2013. The EU-Ukr agreement is subject to some important legislative pre-conditions that must be met over the few coming months. Clearly there are ways to tie all European countries in, provided there is a will. The New Europe is an evolving project that requires vision, not stubborn thinking.
Didomyk, I understood your earlier post well that it's where Putin looks for inspiration for his Eurasia.
The point of my post was to outline the fact that the single market with its various subsidies, regulations but also basic market principles brings many consequences that may not be visible on the first sight - for example the fact that agricultural subsidies would be vital for survival of agriculture in any member state as long as they are provided to some. That's why even Ukraine would need agricultural subsidies despite it is relatively competitive now.
My reference to COMECON meant that despite this situation, EU still cannot be compared to COMECON or USSR which many (especially British) conservatives like to compare.
An illustrative story can be here: French entrepreneurs have bought some agricultural enterprises in new EU members and focus on production of snails in order to import them back to France - which makes French farmers very angry as they cannot compete by price nor size...
Of course, engagement of agricultural powerhouse like Ukraine into the single market would substantially redefine the playground again and maybe cause collapse of agriculture especially in old members.
I can't remember the last Charlemagne I read, that didn't drone on and on about the Euro-Crisis. Though it's never completely absent from modern European topics, it was nice to have it take a 'backseat' in Charlemagne's column for the first time in a while.
There is an error in text, regarding "Always B rules" theory:
Budapest was never HQ for Croatia, it is:
Beč (Vienna, during Austro-Hungarian Empire), Belgrade (during Kingdom of Yugoslavia), Berlin (during WW2, as NDH), Belgrade (again) and now Brussels
Let me correct an error in your letter. Croatia was an independent state under native kings until 1102, when the crown passed into the hands of the Hungarian dynasty. Although, the precise terms of this relationship later became a matter of dispute, Budim/Budapest was the capital of this entity for the next four hundred years, till 1527 when Austrian Habsburgs, were elected to the empty throne of Croatia after the death of King Louis II of Hungary (and Croatia) at the Battle of Mohács. Berlin was never a capital of Croatia, but one could argue that during the WWII both London and Moscow were considered capital - for the freedom fighters, and communists, respectively.
As for Balkan: Montenegro and FYROM could be EU members soon - Montenegro is tiny and already uses unofficially €, FYROM is blocked by Greece because of naming issues but has no other significant troubles. Serbia needs more time to make sure whether they prefer Russia or EU. Albania, Kosovo and B-H need to do progress in democratic developments and country profiling (B-H is composed of several main ethnicities who have difficulty to cooperate as single entity).
As for European members of former USSR: the trouble is that most of these countries are relatively BIG and if EU wants to treat all members equally, EU wouldn't have enough money to fund the expansion. For example, Ukraine is bigger than Poland and would be entitled to claim even more agricultural and infrastructural subsidies which is beyond means of current EU financial situation. Therefore I guess that EU will eventually fully adopt small countries like Moldova or Georgia and signs bilateral agreements of closer cooperation with the big ones.
Russia herself is even more specific case as it is HUGE country that is not manageable at all. Despite Putin's attempts of centralized rule, the regional leaders (gubernators) have basically full authority over their regions and many members of federation are completely in chaos (e.g. Caucasus) - it's not an accidents that Russian central government sends army to solve conflicts there, not police (which is normally intended to deal with interior conflicts). Therefore, I don't think that Russia could become EU member, at least of EU in current form that aims at transparent and consistent development of all its regions.
Tomas Marny:
Your interesting commentary reflects the EU reality of today. Time will tell how the EU internal priorities and the EU vs the Balkans politics will shift and change over the next decade or so. There are, as you know, ongoing debates on the future shape and composition of the EU itself that, currently with 28 highly unequal member states, has become rather difficult to manage no matter who is in charge. This should be (arguably) a priority task before considering any further EU enlargement.
EU has to do much forward thinking in considering the aspirations of large countries such as Ukraine and Turkey as well as smaller like Georgia, Armenia, Moldova. In each case the EU faces complex political and well as economic issues. Russia's ambitions to create some sort of 'Custom Union' is a smoke screen for recreating a Moscow-led political entity which would meet the far-reaching ambitions of leaders like Putin and his nationalists friends who advocate reinventing a 21st cent. version of 'Vielikaya Rossiya' ( aka 'GROSS-RUSSIA') under a tentative name of 'Eurasia'. There would be a common economic policy, common external tariff, common border customs, common whatever else, - another version of the old Soviet era COMECON run by Moscow planners. Thus the EU planners need to address the future long term configuration of the European continent both in political and economic terms. Undoubtedly, there will be opposition from some EU countries that are likely to lose some of the present generous subsidies. Some can no longer exist without generous annual handouts (and nor only in agriculture). The real question is, therefore, are there EU leaders with a forward vision and the necessary will to guide the continent's future?
@ Tomas:
Allow me to offer my analysis of your list of possible applicants:
1) Western Balkans:
Croatia's application process took 8 yrs, and the qualification for possible new applicants (so far, only Serbia is on the list) will take at least as long.
2) Ukraine and Belarus:
They are not only "big", but also ruled (semi-)autocratically - and both are politically closer to Moscow than to Brussels. So far, EU membership is not on the horizon for either of them.
3) Georgia:
Is not even a European country, and a possible application process would certainly not be opened before Turkey was a member. Not very likely.
4) Moldova:
Maybe - but only if they settled their territorial conlict with Transnistria.
5) Russia:
That Russia should NOT join the EU is consensus AFAIK.
Bottom line:
I believe EU membership will be offered to the Western Balkans (and possibly Moldova), and that's it.
And let's face it, the idea of having the EU's eastern borders run 300 kilometers south-west of Moscow doesn't sound very healthy, does it?
Also, for integration to remain meaningful, the EU should not overstretch - there are enough divisions already.
"The real question is, therefore, are there EU leaders with a forward vision and the necessary will to guide the continent's future?"
No, the real question is:
Why would a country like Ukraine that misses the standards for democratic rule by a mile even think the EU would even consider offering membership to it?
Inviting Ukraine isn't even remotely considered at present - and that's not the EU's "fault", but Ukraine's.
Didomyk, single EU market is not COMECON (at least in that nobody centrally plans who produces what for the whole union) but still subsidies and various regulations substantially effect (distort) the market. Therefore e.g. agricultural subsidies would be vital for all the new members because otherwise the local agriculture would crumble under the pressure of subsidized production from other members. In fact, EU has recently selectively cut agricultural subsidies by 10% for bigger producers due to austerity which threatens Czech farming companies (that traditionally work in agricultural unions) already facing stiff foreign competition. But simply countries with prevalent small farmers pushed through their own local interests and distort the market.
That's why common EU market is a double-edge tool. It opens new opportunities but also brings threats in the form of stiffer fair or unfair competition against which there is no local protection.
For example, Croatian farmers look forward to export their local specialities like pršuts (names of which they registered for regional protection) to the whole EU market but should be aware that they can lose their local markets because (often multinational) supermarket chains will mercilessly make purchases everywhere on the common market where they can get products cheaper and will not care about local prosperity.
Common EU market thus intensifies globalization and brings opportunities to the flexible and/or unprincipled but dangers to less flexible ones. It requires change of mentality and all the issues that have surfaced recently stem from the facts that
a) the market is still in many ways inconsistent - e.g. unrestricted movement of products but national supervisory competencies
b) people have not absorbed the change and whine that their certainties they were used for generations crumble
c) many unprincipled individuals and organizations exploit the holes and inconsistencies in an unfair way - e.g. companies who exploit cheaper workforce in some member state but still sell for full price (especially Bulgarians consider the gap between EU prices and Eastern salaries unbearable) but also (groups of) individual who exploit different social welfare policies in individual member states.
My point is that EU has still been under development and much more time is needed before everything is digested and stabilizes in a more-or-less balanced situation. Therefore I guess that before it happens, there will be no will for expansion that would cause additional turbulences - on contrary there may be situation that EU splits into several more compact parts to hasten the stabilization process.
As for global visions, see my reply to Joshua Tree that follows...
Josh, we have to realize that the world has been recently forming several strong multi-national blocks and especially small countries (European but also Asian former USSR members) must belong somewhere in order to be able to protect their interests against stronger blocks (of course, some may become independent and act as tax paradises or casinos, etc.) but it cannot apply to full-fledge countries.
There are three blocks to which they can realistically belong: EU, Russian Euro-asia and China.
Realistic integration requires both economic and social feasibility. Therefore best prerequisite for successfully EU integration goes with smaller (economic feasibility) Christian (social feasibility) countries. Of course, some countries with orthodox church tend to closer cooperation with Russia but Greece or Romania are EU members too despite their orthodoxy and it should be their choice.
As for whether their current governments are (semi)authoritative: It's not that important because EU membership requires adoption of EU legislative including the Declaration of Human Rights, etc. Therefore in reality "the path is the goal" and the adoption process itself would lead to improvements. This can be seen in the case of Serbia where current pro-EU leaders do democratization progress they wouldn't have done otherwise. That's why the accession process would be positive impulse for democratization even in other countries like Ukraine therefore I understand that it is important for democrats in those countries like our fellow commentator Didomyk. Therefore the Eastern Partnership initiative must continue and offer something in exchange for political democratic improvements even before the full membership is economically feasible.
@ Tomas:
I moved my answer up... .
Tomas Marny
First, see my response above re the 'COMECON' issue. Read my earlier post. It refers to Putin's Eurasia, not to the EU in whatever form.
Second, by saying ' ..My point is that EU has still been under development and much more time is needed before everything is digested and stabilizes'
you are in fact voicing very similar view to mine when I said:
" The real question is, therefore, are there EU leaders with a forward vision and the necessary will to guide the continent's future?"
You said: "And let's face it, the idea of having the EU's eastern borders run 300 kilometers south-west of Moscow doesn't sound very healthy, does it?"
WOW ! Have you bothered to verify the distance between Talinin in Estonia or Riga in Latvia, both now full EU and NATO members, and Moscow ? Or better still the distance to Russia's former capital Petersburg ? Is there supposed to be an 'exclusion zone' as determined by Vlad Putin himself ?
Prsut (cured ham) registered for protection (only one of varieties produced regionally) cannot be purchased (or produced)anywhere on the common market, as you state. Hence the protection.
They of course MAY be purchased elsewhere on the EU market but they must come from the region and have corresponding ingredients and production technology.
That's why I said that producers of the registered products look forward to exporting them to other parts of EU market without the fear of competition.
But most agricultural products are "generic" and thus it may well happen that local farmers will not be competitive with generic products and lose even their local markets.
Croatia has been swamped for the past 15 years by all kinds of cured ham imported and sold in supermarkets most of which are owned by international chains. Some of the cured ham produced in Cro and sold under 'prsut' is made from imported pork hinds. Of several cured hams produced locally from domestic pork, in different regions and therefore undergoing different curing processes only one has been registered so far. Other may or may not undergo the procedure, it is up to the producers. The registered one did not see its sales dropping due to the cheeper imported or homegrown but unregistered products.
Hello to one and all from inside Croatia (the former Venetian Istria)!
Great weekend, great weather, great food, wine, women and song. Zagreb is hosting a party and the government has invited representatives of all the other Balkan countries not yet in the EU - to make clear that Croatia will remain in favour of enlargement. Seems quite appropriate to me.
So, there is still time to book your summer holiday for Trieste, Slovenia, Istria and Dalmatia. Slavic Venetia is quite cool really...
What language is "Serbo-Croat"? What century is the writer of this article living in?
I don't think Charlemagne is reviving hatred, or fueling conflicts. He is just being misunderstood by overzealous "let's be friends like nothing happened" crowd. Europe failed Vukovar. Aggression, massacre, war crimes were committed and weren't even identified, recognized. Future is more important than the past, people are anxious to move forward, but the past is real, aggression did happen. A stable peace in Europe, after 1945. was not founded on hurried efforts to move on, but on clear definition who was fighting against aggression, and who won. It is obvious now that aggression, war, crimes, wouldn't have happened if Serbia had recognized the borders of it's neighbors in 1990. Charlemagne writes about failure of Europe to identify aggression, to call it by it's name, and to do something about it. Europe was in the role of the elder brother, and failed miserably. Charlemagne emphasizes, from a standpoint of EU skeptic, or realist that it would be equally wrong now, not to invest energy and effort into bringing other Balkan states: Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo and Albania into European Union. He has wright.
I am tired that 18 years since end of war 90% of article is about war with brief look at economy. Aggression did happen, war crimes did happen, nobody is denying that, but do we have to talk about that all the time? Croatia and Serbia came to terms, young Croats are going to see Serbia and vice versa, what was unimaginable only 10 years ago. Nobody is overzealous, but tired from same old story...
Future belongs to you, and you are already tired?
Dear Charlemagne !
Days before Croatian entry in EU, you are writing about things even Croat&Serbian papers are not writing about. WOW !!! From all topics you can write about(rampant corruption, incompetent politicians, recession, high unemployment) you write about 18y.o. things, things which we all know, will never forget, but would like to go to the future, not past.
As for Cyrillic script in Vukovar and other parts of Croatia? Same hardliners you mentioned in your article voted years ago for that law, when they had majority in parliament.Any human being with half of brain sees this, as it is, bickering between two major parties, not as hostilities between Croats&Serbs.
And your line, "Many factories—making tyres, shoes and textiles—have never recovered from the war. ", is completely wrong, we recovered from war, but not from our politicians.
For journalist who writes for The Economist, your article looks like homework done 10 sec before classes, and we all know which grade pupil gets for homework like this.
The events at Vukovar and Srebrenica were despicable and horrendous, they are war crimes. However, much of the rest of your analysis is far too simplistic. Borrmill alludes to this below when he refers to the 200,000 Serbs who were expelled from the Krajina (a province of Croatia). You should also have considered the support for the Nazis in WW2 from the Ustashe, the Croat fascist organisation, particularly you could have mentioned the extermination of 500,000 Serbs, Jews, homosexuals and gypsies at the Jasenovac concentration camp in Croatia. Horrendous as all of this is, as Borrmill says, denying any of these mass war crimes would seriously jeopardize relations and stability in the region in a period when both Serbia and Croatia are trying to heal the wounds of the past.
Nobody is trying to deny Jasenovac or Croatian puppet regime during WW II, for which ALL Croatian governments apologized and expressed deep sorrow.As for number of 500 000...sigh... even communist put number around 100 000. Krajna was and is not province within Croatia, and 200k expelled Serbs? Check Milosevics transcripts.
@antisomething, first I'd like to say that you tried to write a balanced, non-agressive reply and thanks for that. However, I'm afraid you have missed the point that I was trying to make and presumably a similar point that Borrmill was trying to make also (though I can't speak on his/her behalf). I am not trying to demonise Croats and I am certainly not trying to glorify Serbs. It's Charlemagne that I'm criticising fiercly, not Serbs or Croats or Bosnians. I think it was a superficial and simplistic article, an insensitive article that took no account of the attempts by the communities of the former Yugoslavia to try to live together peaceably again. In fact, it was so insensitive and superficial that it is divisive, not informative.
I do apologize and agree with you, but this article is not as you put " I think it was a superficial and simplistic article, an insensitive article that took no account of the attempts by the communities of the former Yugoslavia to try to live together peaceably again." but plain stupid, you could even say moronic.
I do get upset with myths&legends starting from 7th century, regardless of a side, so i jumped prematurely.
@ Shaun39 (further below):
"The whole West Balkans, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, Georgia and Armenia should all join [...] Hell, even Belarus, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Israel, Tunisia, Morocco, Russia and Kazakhstan should ultimately be welcome [...]"
Thanks for providing a good laugh!
(I suppose you must be joking as a realization of this megalomaniac vision would render any attempt at meaningful "European integration" obsolete. Hell, most of the countries you list aren't even European.)
Your passion to revive hatreds and create conflicts is no longer simply silly.
It has now become sickening.
Never heard the European proverb: "he who sows winds, harvests hurricanes"?
@ Sanmartinian:
Your habit of insulting "Charlemagne" at every occassion is bizarre, to say the least.
This is especially true when you very obviously haven't even read the article you are commenting on. Allow me to quote: "For all its troubles, the EU is still a family that others want to join."
San Martinian, you have summarised the situation very well. Charlemagne writes, "From now on EU enlargement will become harder. But it would be a mistake to let Croatia become the permanent new frontier of Europe, the Antemurale Christianitatis ('bulwark of Christianity') of olden days". As if Serbs and Montenegrins aren't Christians also... or maybe from Charlemagne's point of view, Orthodox Christian Serbs and Montenegrins aren't really Christians and from Charlemagne's perspective, Muslim Bosnians are beneath contempt. If that's Charlemagne's perspective, then Charlemagne is a master at reviving old hatreds and re-awakening old conflicts.
Joshua Tree quotes Charlemagnes aphorism `for all its troubles, the EU is still a family that others want to join.`
Maybe both of you have forgotten that in the UK for example it is a family that many are desperate to leave
to Sami Eratik on Croats, Serbs and Charlemagne
Thank you for paying attention to my comments.Your last sentence fully reflects my views and naturally my agreement is total.
As one of the original EU citizenships, a supporter of the European union, this or another, let me state I fully welcome any European nationality whatever its etnicity, religion, beliefs in austerity or otherwise to solve the not many problems we still have.
All I require is that they are well intentended, peaceful and tolerant. "Union in diversity" is the EU motto and although I'm realist enough to be aware this will take time to be fully enforced, I am a full supporter of its desirability.
Those who argue that Muslims, Jews, Budist, Far Northern, South Western or South Eastern, Keynesian or Luddists have no place among us are just like those who were convicted in Nurenberg many years ago. They were comdemned as promoters and authors of major crimes against Humanity and belong to the past not to the present civilization.
Apart a couple or two visits and lectures in Croatia, Serbia and some other countries in the region, I know the Balkans poorly.
Just enough to be aware, as many other regions of the globe, that not long ago the terible cloak of ethnic and religious hatred fell upon it and scars are all over the place and mainly in the inhabitants's hearts.
It's one of the prime duties af any decent person, above all journalists even more than politicians, to do everything we can to destroy that cloak of hatred and its horrible heritage.
This was the sin of Charlemagne: neither did he attempt to destroy the hatred nor has he avoided to increase it further. On the contrary.
Anyone who has the patience to browse my post history will find several times my expression of praise for Charlemagne's capabilities of finding facts and many positions he has taken. ...pleasure that I fully support this article of his. is, for instance, what I wrote about Charlemagne on February, 4th when he wrote against a case of political corruption.
However, Charlemagne has two ever recurrent habits that make him, in my opinion, firstly, not a good enough journalist, secondly, unfit for the Economist that still blows its own horn often about being unbiased.
His first sin is that he imagines all minds work like his; a passable drawback in any of us, totally unacceptable in a good journalist.
The second is much worse: to gain audience he promotes and adds fuel to the fires that exist everywhere in human conflicts. Sometimes when they are hardly noticeable and even invented. He himself confessed this after a NATO meeting that went very peacefully and he complained that was bad for journalism.
Adding fuel to fires is far worse than a journalist's fault. It is, hidden as it may be, an incitement to hatred and, eventually to violence. Many legislations in fully democratic and very civilized countries have provisions against it.
That's what I always have against anyone who does it. Charlemagne or anybody else.
Just incidentally: Charlemagne also seems to be against the EU and the Euro. That's his full right and although I hold an opposite opinion on the EU and feel that doing away with the Euro now could cause a financial disaster, I would never dream of curtailing his views that are opposed to mine.
But I insist I'll always fight against his fanning fires and not helping to destroy hatreds.
Well said. From all that you have written above, I believe that you would find Mark Mazower's book "The Balkans: a short history" informative. Mazower seems to do his best throughout the book to be unbiased. Finally, your point about sometimes praising Charlemagne and sometimes, like me, being unhappy with his/her work: presumably it's quite likely that more than one Economist journalist uses that pen-name, maybe the Charlemagne in any particular issue can be one or more journalists from a whole "Charlemagne team", for all I know.
to Sami Eratik on Mark Mazower and, again, Charlemagne
Being almost 82, I've suddenly discovered that paper dazzles...So I don't read books any longer. I'll try an e-edition of the book and shall certainly be pleased to read it.
Apart from the beauty of the land and pleasantness of the people towards me (and the wonderful folklore for a fan as me) I know very little of the Balkans, Greece and European Turkey excepted. Those two I know better than reasonably well.
As for Charlemagne, I know the insides of the Economist at least since 1947, well before the present tower was built.
It is public information that since a little later than the present Editor-in-Chief, John Micklethwait, took over in 2006, Charlemagne has always been Anton La Guardia.
I doubt any article by Charlemagne has been written by anybody else since then, as opposed to what happens with other sections of the paper.
Anton La Guardia is just that: an excellent fact finder, a spectacular nose for politicking although far weaker at real politics and policy.
As I said before, he has two tremendous faults: a tendency to think all minds work like his, a common fault but unacceptable in a good journalist, and, really unacceptable, an uncontrollable urge to blow up or promote conflicts, however small and unimportant.
I won't go as far as supposing some are invented but wouldn't be surprised if they were. I also suspect he uses that technique to draw audiences.
On occasion, I agree with his views and analysis. When that happens I say so.
I make a point of saying he is promoting ill feelings and hatred when he does, which unfortunately is frequent.
I never met or talked to him personally although I saw him on not widely watched in Europe TV once or twice.
I'm not sure you fully understood the article.
Charlemagne expressed himself IN FAVOR of eventually offering EU membership to ALL countries on the Western Balkans, and AGAINST leaving any of them behind.
And I agree with him.
By the way, is Charlemagne a fiction of 21st century or a history figure of 8th century. Facts are turned upside down here. Balkan is a peninsula named Balkans containing some EU country-members as Slovenia, Bulgaria, Greece, even Romania. Is it an anti-Serbian hatred that has pulled wool over somebody's eyes or are they misinformed. Secondly, Yugoslav army consisting mainly of Serbs and Montenegrins really committed atrocious crimes in Vukovar, but Croats also committed crimes by expelling about two hundred thousand Serbs from Croatia. Lots of them were killed. Once Pandora Box was open in the Balkans in 1991, nationalists' clashes erupted, they waged their dirty and atrocious wars and they, more or less, committed war crimes. Denying mass war crimes would seriously jeopardize relations and stability in the region. Serbia and Croatia are trying to heal and mend the rifts of the near past.
When Vukovar fell in November 1991, 200 patients were taken from the hospital and shot by Serb forces. Denying mass war crimes would seriously jeopardize relations and stability in the region. Serbia and Croatia are trying to heal and mend the rifts of the near past, and finding, facing, accepting and respecting the truth would help to fasten that process, but it's the future that is important. To build a future, to heal and mend the rifts of the past, is not difficult, just start by respecting the borders of your neighboroughs, their freedom and life. As Serbia does today. Real future, real relations - economic, cultural, scientific, between independent, similar, and diverse countries will follow.
It is possible to minimize war crimes, but not to prevent. Of course, some of Croatians did bad things but not even as half as Serbs did. It is crucial to understand what did happen in ex Yugoslavian wars. In Constitution Act of Yugoslavia, there was a statement which gave, to all nations, right to take elections and potentially become independent country. Croatia took that right, people with 90% decided to seperate from Yugoslavia, and that was a movement which Serbs couldn't took as a truth. In the same time as Croatia become independent country, Serbian minority in Croatia, about 200 000 of them, made their own borders in Croatia with Croatia, on the streets in counties and villages where they were majority. Croatian police, which was established few days earlier, got order to move that borders, and on their way to get there, Serbs killed first Croat near the Plitvička jezera, national park. That is how war became reality. Serbs used JNA ( Yugoslavian army) to fought against my nation, and did a lot of crimes, which was proven in Hague. In summer of 1995. Croatians decide to fight back in massive attack on every Serbian army position. Action STORM last for 5 days. Croatia did a great job, in military terms. There were some bad things, but Serbs decided to leave their houses, because they were under propaganda. So what I wanna say to you is that you can check how many Serbs got killed in that war, and how many Croats. In numbers it is approximately 1:20. For 1 Serbian murdered person, there were at least 20 of Croats. But in the end, Croatians do want peace, do want live in good relations with our neighbours. Forgive, but not forget. Thats all we do. Greetings from new EU member! :)
It is possible to minimize war crimes, but not to prevent. Of course, some of Croatians did bad things but not even as half as Serbs did. It is crucial to understand what did happen in ex Yugoslavian wars. In Constitution Act of Yugoslavia, there was a statement which gave, to all nations, right to take elections and potentially become independent country. Croatia took that right, people with 90% decided to seperate from Yugoslavia, and that was a movement which Serbs couldn't took as a truth. In the same time as Croatia become independent country, Serbian minority in Croatia, about 200 000 of them, made their own borders in Croatia with Croatia, on the streets in counties and villages where they were majority. Croatian police, which was established few days earlier, got order to move that borders, and on their way to get there, Serbs killed first Croat near the Plitvička jezera, national park. That is how war became reality. Serbs used JNA ( Yugoslavian army) to fought against my nation, and did a lot of crimes, which was proven in Hague. In summer of 1995. Croatians decide to fight back in massive attack on every Serbian army position. Action STORM last for 5 days. Croatia did a great job, in military terms. There were some bad things, but Serbs decided to leave their houses, because they were under propaganda. So what I wanna say to you is that you can check how many Serbs got killed in that war, and how many Croats. In numbers it is approximately 1:20. For 1 Serbian murdered person, there were at least 20 of Croats. But in the end, Croatians do want peace, do want live in good relations with our neighbours. Forgive, but not forget. Thats all we do. Greetings from new EU member! :)
It is about time we buried the hatchet and did not stir the passion about former heinous crimes in the Balkans. You know well what happened in Croatia in 1941 after NDH was established in April 10th but I do not want to raise the question of that period, nor present sugar-coated truth of 1991, either. I know that you have your version supported by state-run media and presume it irrefutable evidence. Congratulations for joining EU!
All true - but let's not forget what your people did to Muslims in Herzegovina.. THey behaved exactly like the Serbs did.
So there's no point in saying that one party is more guilty than the other: they were all equally guilty for destroying what once was a great country (this comes from a Croatian living abroad).
Euro membership is compulsory & your columnist is aware that this means wrecking the economy as the ability to set an appropriate interest rate & to devalue is lost. He had seemed your most unbiased journalist but now the project is unchallengeable even when it brings immiseration to southern Europe.
It's called credit standards. If loan collateral requirements and bank equity requirements are both sufficiently high, then banking risk is avoided. No financial depression.
If government deficits are kept low, retirement ages rise as fast as life expectancy, pension promises are paid for in advance (no off balance sheet debts) and debt burdens are kept low, then there will never be a need to slash public spending during a recession.
Do the above, and there are no risks to euro membership. Indeed, there are many benefits:
- supporting trade and investment by removing exchange rate risk (most of Croatia's neighbors use the euro - Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Montenegro plus Bosnia pegs to the euro and uses it for large transactions).
- supporting tourism (indeed, Zagreb plus coastal Croatia already accepts the euro in essentially all restaurants & hotels)
- reducing the cost of finance for Croatian businesses (assuming high credit standards are maintained) - so important for modern capital investment, higher productivity & wages and international competitiveness
Reducing exchange-rate risk within zone was one of arguments peddled for UK to go in.
Greece & Spain have 26 % unemployment. Greek economy has contracted by 1/4 in 6 years. I had thought the term 'Euro fanatic' was OTT but here you are advocating the destruction of the Croatian economy based on the premise that preventing any more wars in Europe justifies anything. (The original one that was supposed to have a chance to happen (FRG - France) never could have happened - no more appetite for war in FRG ever & French nuclear weapons.
Even if you are incapable of changing your mind when the facts change (Keynes) most of Europe have noticed what has happened. Pew did a survey which showed a 20 % deterioration in every pro-EU metric just about everywhere. Another poll had the EU'S unfavourability rating in Spain rising from 22% to 72 % in a year.
Turkeys will not keep voting for Xmas! There is an anti-austerity majority in the Italian parliament & an anti-MOU majority in Greek parliament (+ Golden Dawn on 10 % THIRD!)
The handling of the South's economic crisis has CAUSED the depression - austerity without devalution or default (except where forced in Greece) which is standard IMF package.DSK bounced them in to EZ packages. Now push-back - a year ago a paper said that Euro is 'unviable with CURRENT membership' & produced paper showing that impact on economy of simultaneous tightenings in S without monetary offset was TWICE that amount on GDP rather than 1/2 as previously thought. This explains why Greece's debt:GDP ratio is back to 150 % DESPITE private bondholders taking 50 % hit - in real terms 70 %.
IMF has recently said that EZ forecasts were not based on 'scientific standards'-the other 1/2 of explanation of why they are never met.
The thrust of the 2nd version of Cyprus bailout(&the banking union agreement) is that N will not provide any more loans - banks' creditors bondholders & depositors & then NATIONAL government (under strict conditions).
GUARDIAN'S Economics Editor wrote in an unguarded moment thatr the Euro should be 'smashed' but he is objective enough to accept the evidence & logical enough to draw appropriate conclusions.
A handful of 'politically motivated men' are immiserating over 100m people in southern Europe. One cause for optimism is that PMs effectively told HvR to shut when he tried to progress a grandiose scheme for an EU army.
China has grown by 1/4 since 2008 while EZ contracted by 3 %. Rest of world not 'harmonising' especially as diversity produces comparative advantage - see Eire's 12.5% corporation tax rate whicg FRG & France periodically try to increase.
'The dogs bark but the caravan moves on.'Businesses all over world are pivoting away from the follies of the EU - the reason why our own PMI manufacturing was good in April & why we can expect to grow from now on.
Reducing exchange-rate risk within zone was one of arguments peddled for UK to go in.
Greece & Spain have 26 % unemployment. Greek economy has contracted by 1/4 in 6 years. I had thought the term 'Euro fanatic' was OTT but here you are advocating the destruction of the Croatian economy based on the premise that preventing any more wars in Europe justifies anything. (The original one that was supposed to have a chance to happen (FRG - France) never could have happened - no more appetite for war in FRG ever & French nuclear weapons.
Even if you are incapable of changing your mind when the facts change (Keynes) most of Europe have noticed what has happened. Pew did a survey which showed a 20 % deterioration in every pro-EU metric just about everywhere. Another poll had the EU'S unfavourability rating in Spain rising from 22% to 72 % in a year.
Turkeys will not keep voting for Xmas! There is an anti-austerity majority in the Italian parliament & an anti-MOU majority in Greek parliament (+ Golden Dawn on 10 % THIRD!)
The handling of the South's economic crisis has CAUSED the depression - austerity without devalution or default (except where forced in Greece) which is standard IMF package.DSK bounced them in to EZ packages. Now push-back - a year ago a paper said that Euro is 'unviable with CURRENT membership' & produced paper showing that impact on economy of simultaneous tightenings in S without monetary offset was TWICE that amount on GDP rather than 1/2 as previously thought. This explains why Greece's debt:GDP ratio is back to 150 % DESPITE private bondholders taking 50 % hit - in real terms 70 %.
IMF has recently said that EZ forecasts were not based on 'scientific standards'-the other 1/2 of explanation of why they are never met.
The thrust of the 2nd version of Cyprus bailout(&the banking union agreement) is that N will not provide any more loans - banks' creditors bondholders & depositors & then NATIONAL government (under strict conditions).
GUARDIAN'S Economics Editor wrote in an unguarded moment thatr the Euro should be 'smashed' but he is objective enough to accept the evidence & logical enough to draw appropriate conclusions.
A handful of 'politically motivated men' are immiserating over 100m people in southern Europe. One cause for optimism is that PMs effectively told HvR to shut when he tried to progress a grandiose scheme for an EU army.
China has grown by 1/4 since 2008 while EZ contracted by 3 %. Rest of world not 'harmonising' especially as diversity produces comparative advantage - see Eire's 12.5% corporation tax rate whicg FRG & France periodically try to increase.
'The dogs bark but the caravan moves on.'Businesses all over world are pivoting away from the follies of the EU - the reason why our own PMI manufacturing was good in April & why we can expect to grow from now on.
Clearly, I don't advocate the destruction of any economy.
I don't share your preoccupation with war, nor your "the French are pacifist" view (in the past 5 years, what about the French interventions in Libya, Mali, Ivory Coast, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo? What about French readiness to intervene in Syria now?). Many other European countries are however pacifist; what of it?
I agree that today's depression across Portugal/ Spain/ Italy/ Greece/ Cyprus is truly awful (Ireland's had a mild time by comparison). It's a problem mostly of:
(1) failure to raise retirement ages with life expectancy and resulting shrinking workforce, growing public spending liability & historic accumulation off balance sheet government debt (implied by unfundably large pension promises);
(2) failure to liberalize labor markets; insufficient investment in R&D or the skillsets required by growth industries (software development, materials engineering, etc).
(3) high dependence on energy imports (when the oil price fell back in 2009-2010, all these economies sprang back into life only to collapse again when oil spiked from €45/ barrel back up to €77/ barrel). France reduces its energy intensity with nuclear; the UK is a petrostate; the Germans export to petrostates; the Scandinavians trade intensively with Norway. But Southern Europe imports all of its energy and has seen terms of trade become radically worse. Competitiveness depends on finding solutions to the energy price crisis and resulting sap from domestic demand.
Solution: new gas pipelines to Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan & Kazakhstan (all now under construction). Peace with Iran and gas pipelines there (not happened yet - far more effort needed). A major wave of new nuclear would be nice. Or if not that, massive investment in solar & wind should become cost competitive by 2020.
(4) banking failure of the worst kind (especially in Spain & Greece, to a lesser extent in Portugal though not really a top factor in Italy). Horrendous legacy of bad debts in the private sector. Far too much lax lending has occurred with insufficient collateral, with far too much leverage, with insufficient banking equity and without due attention to maturity matching. Access to finance - even trading finance for creditworthy businesses with customers - is scarce. The eurozone desperately needs a single banking area in which banks operate without borders.
In fact, I still want us (i.e. the UK) to join the euro. Before that were to happen, we would need extensive financial reform and formation of a deep banking union in Europe. But given that (and tough credit standards in the UK, and low barriers to entry for new bank formation) we should join the euro.
Common sense would recommend a formal geographical definition of the EU. The current incremental accession process from Finland to Turkey and from Morocco to Russia does not make sense; it is anxiolytic for the public and self destructive for the EU. Even the Council of Europe has a precise definition of its geographical reach...To refuse to draw EU external borders is demagogic and irresponsible. JGG
Really? Why common sense? French Guiana (naturally, being an intrinsic part of France) is in the EU - but it's a chunk of South America the same size as Ireland.
So why not Canada? Or New Zealand? Or Australia? Or New Caledonia?
"European" really isn't the most important part of the EU. I'm proud to be an EU citizen - but the greatest value in that comes from shared principles, shared law, human freedom, an integrated single market and complete business & human mobility to work and operate anywhere.
At some point, there might be some strategic arguments or efficiency-of-negotiation arguments against further expansion. And there's also the expansion vs integration tradeoff (it would become much harder to build a common European military force, or to negotiate the design of a singe European bank regulatory framework, in a European Union of 50 members).
As I see it, that might better be tackled with a cleaner separation of joint competences and state level competences, with separate mechanisms, forums & frameworks for supporting subsets of member states in pursuing joint cooperation in particular areas (e.g. Ireland, Malta, Cyprus and the UK might all choose to collaborate to build a single business registration system; Austria, Slovenia and Slovakia might cooperate on vocational training, etc).
If successful, both expansion with many incremental bits of internal integration would become consistent. In which case, bring on South Korea, Taiwan, Chile, Canada, New Zealand, Israel, Tunisia, Morocco and even Iran (after regime change, democratic institutions and compliance with the Acquis & European law).
Freedom of all citizens to work in any member state without any bureaucracy; completely visa free travel for any reason; complete freedom of business to expand across borders; equality before the law in all states; complete customs union and no barriers, delays or bureaucracy related to trade, etc. That, plus common security guarantees in a massive block of developed and western countries.
The EU is a fantastic model - why should we restrict it geographically to Europe?
So why not make it a World Union? Isn't that what you really want?
yet that was the "international socialism" dream, and the "flowers power" of the seventies too, unfortunately there are wolves that don't buy into these new age religions
Eventually, yes. Though to be clear, the only competences I'd eventually like to be concentrated at the global level are:
- law (over human rights, freedom of media, property rights, etc)
- competition authorities able to break up businesses (however big) and take national & local governments to court over anticompetitive practices (or failure to prosecute anticompetitive practices)
- single market, with open procurement requirements and a comprehensive ban on national or state preferences in state & local procurement processes. No customs barriers of any kind between member states. Freedom of any business, bank or other entity to operate without re-registration or bureaucracy in any other member state.
- single citizenship - complete freedom of movement to travel, live, work and create businesses anywhere without having to register with any bureaucracy and without any conditions of any kind
- military power (obviously); permanent moratorium on any state, private entity or organization ever building a military force (with a nominal federal military force strong enough to monitor and force that requirement). Reduce global military spending to 0.1% of world GDP, and end all prospect of organized warfare.
- joint R&D systems (no national preference on allocation of science funding - it should go where the returns seem highest and progress can be made most cost effectively)
- possibly, some further guarantees. E.g. out of concern for positive liberty and human empowerment to build our own lives, a right to minimum consumption of €500/month inflation adjusted - based on an entitlement for all citizens to access low interest loans when their incomes are low (the down side there would be small Union wide taxation - and it should be kept small).
But here's a bit of context:
- China, the US and India would never join (already supermassive; the benefits of joining would not look convincing enough; the elites in those countries have too many vested interests). Russia under its present government behaves as though it's in that category too, but it probably isn't (Russia's population ain't that big, and the lure of Europe on the Russian middle class is strong).
- I'm not in favour of letting in undeveloped countries (need to be sensitive to concerns of citizens - no mass migration; no non-western cultures). We also need high standards of government, high levels of human development and effective enforcement of Union law. I am however in favour of supporting third countries (financially, in training, engineering and incentives) in reforming institutions, urbanizing, building modern infrastructure, accessing global markets tariff-free, extending access to finance for their businesses, etc (with the ultimate promise of membership once criteria are fulfilled).
- there's no possibility of such an entity just randomly being built. It has to evolve from something. It can however become an outgrowth of the EU. If the EU just kept expanding (all of the Eastern Partnership countries have expressed desire to join the EU; Kazakhstan's government in 2010 stated that they wanted to join the EU; Tunisia and Morocco both have strong aspirations to EU membership and a high level of integration already; Israel already applies most EU law, is a member of many EU institutions and would be a natural member), incrementalist effects would eventually make "European" an anachronism - it could evolve into a World Union (or inspire the creation of a World Union along lines similar to those above).
Yes, that is indeed what I would like to see over the next 50 years.
"Common sense would recommend a formal geographical definition of the EU". Well, yes, it might... so define it, then. And while you're at it, please explain how ex-President Valery Giscard d'Estaing managed to use such geographical definitions to exclude Turkey but yet include Greek Cyprus, whose capital is considerably farther east than Turkey's.
Israel would not be able to join due to not being European and because of its SA style system of segregation
Agreed - the EU must not and shall not close any door to new entrants.
The whole West Balkans, Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, Georgia and Armenia should all join as and when they satisfy the Acquis - democratic government, separation of powers, human rights, freedom of the press, economic freedom, serious efforts to shut down corruption, implementation of European law, etc. (Hell, even Belarus, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Israel, Tunisia, Morocco, Russia and Kazakhstan should ultimately be welcome if they were to implement the relevant institutional reforms. This is after all a project for human liberty, abolition of borders and economic integration.)
And yet - identifying as human beings rather than by ethnicity, nationality or religion must be the first human priority. The second is to dispense with historic "animosity", overcome geopolitical tension and instead build collaborative institutions that seek to support greater portability of data, common means of communicating and rendering services, greater mobility of business and human freedom.
you forgot Iran and Russia
Nope - included Russia there. Indeed, I would love for Russia to be an integral part of the EU, or some successor to the EU. I want complete freedom of movement - so that I can recruit good Russian people, so that I can live on the Caspian, in Kaliningrad, in Vladivostok or wherever, etc. I want a competitive Eurasian energy market, without monopolies, without geostrategic games. I want Scandinavian and German kit house manufacturers to scale up production in Russia (abundant cheap materials, etc) giving us cheaper housing anywhere.
And indeed, I actually would like Iran to join the EU too eventually. I have a few Iranian friends (really great people). Persia is a very westernized society - far more so than most Arab countries. Yeah they've got an awful government, international sanctions and corruption worse than Ukraine - but they have high standards of education, something approaching gender equality, a fertility rate at 1.64 kids per woman near the European average (lower than the Netherlands), widespread secular attitudes, they like to drink alcohol, they invented wine and still produce the world's best (though it's illegal, it's still produced on a large scale), etc.
Persia and Europe ideally should be united, with modern institutions and without borders. At a human level, it just makes sense - it's about liberty and humanity (and so much common culture - every big European civilization from the Romans to the Vikings to the Tsars to the Kaisers to us Brits engaged in extensive trade and deep cultural exchange with Persia). We have common legends, very close languages and so much else in common.
At an economic level, there is enormous arbitrage potential. For Europe, Iran would be a source of a super abundant cheap almonds, walnuts, figs, amazing fruit of every kind, olives, quality wine, as much oil as Saudi Arabia, 18% of the world's proven natural gas reserves, abundant hydroelectric power potential, so much solar power potential; beautiful valleys, beaches & mountains for perfect holidays, spa resorts or awesome skiing; freight rail routes connecting the EU to Pakistan & India (cheap but rapid bulk transit); etc.
And for the Persian people, there's freedom to travel internationally; there's access to European service industries; there's access to FDI and modern capital equipment; there's luxury cars and kit houses with luxury fittings (good exchange for oil & gas); there's modern gas turbines; there's better refinery equipment and modern petrochemical industries; there's easier access to education in Western Europe; there are many opportunities for career development in Europe; there's massive arbitrage on new trade; etc.
And of course, there's the prospect of better government and greater human freedom all round. Bring it on - Russian and Iran joining the EU would be a great thing. In practice, we'll have to reconcile ourselves with reality: ain't gonna happen. But a future iteration of the EU (one that already includes Turkey, Ukraine and Armenia) should certainly seek deep institutional convergence, open borders and formation of common multilateral institutions with Russia and Persia.
Let's explore further the list of countries above, and consider what the EU would be like if it included all of the above.
Entity __________ Population ______ PPP/capita
EU (28) _________ 507.9m ___________ €25,500
Bosnia __________ 3.8m _____________ €7,200
Macedonia _______ 2.1m _____________ €9,000
Montenegro ______ 0.6m _____________ €10,800
Serbia __________ 7.3m _____________ €9,000
Albania _________ 3.2m _____________ €7,800
Moldova _________ 3.6m _____________ €2,600
Ukraine _________ 45.7m ____________ €5,500
Belarus _________ 9.5m _____________ €11,400
Russia __________ 143m _____________ €16,800
Kazakhstan ______ 16.6m ____________ €10,000
Turkey __________ 73.4m ____________ €14,200
Georgia _________ 4.5m _____________ €4,200
Armenia _________ 3.1m _____________ €4,400
Azerbaijan ______ 9.2m _____________ €7,700
Persia __________ 74.8m ____________ €8,800
Morocco _________ 32.3m ____________ €3,800
Tunisia _________ 10.7m ____________ €7,100
Lebanon _________ 4.3m _____________ €11,200
Israel __________ 7.8m _____________ €22,100
EU+19 ___________ 963.4m ___________ €19,100
The new union would, from the outset, account for 13.6% of the world's population, 17.4% of the world's land surface, 28% of global GDP, 41% of the world's proven natural gas reserves, 17% of the world's proven crude oil reserves, etc.
And such a Union would surely enjoy rapid economic growth - with so much arbitrage and with matching of West European capital equipment to so many opportunities.
- Massive labour market potential.
- Massive potential for application of modern capital equipment.
- Massive potential from cheap energy for Western Europe (and cheaper European consumer & capital goods for energy exporters)
- Massive new markets for diverse luxury goods from any location to any location
- Potential for education arbitrage, networking, etc
- So much great land for tourism, retirement, etc
- So much benefit from modern institutions & rule of law across such a large region
- So much potential for scale economies, for busting monopolies and more intense competitive pressures, etc
- Merged electricity distribution infrastructure for power price arbitrage in a single EU power market with load balancing (enormous potential of HVDC - with transmission losses now under 1% per thousand km, even Lisbon-Seoul spot prices should never differ by more than 15% or so)
- There would be Bering Strait tunnels for point-to-point rail freight between the anywhere in the US and anywhere in Europe within 8 days for cheap transit of bulk cargo.
- There would surely be vast investment in freight rail transit with China (anywhere in Europe to anywhere in China in under 5 days for cheap transit of bulk cargo).
- Freight rail from anywhere in Europe to the border with Pakistan in under 3 days. Potentially massive low-lead-time trade with Pakistan and India.
- if there's ever a resolution of the North Korean conflict, rapid freight rail transit with South Korea (and probably Japan too with the JPN–KOR Tunnel)
etc ...
Awesome if it could ever happen.
A political union with a huge, relatively poor, misogynistic, murderously homophobic (it hangs gay people), anti-Western, terrorism-sponsoring, Islamic theocracy? To save you time wondering, it will never, ever happen.
Persia had a great culture once. Islamism has largely destroyed it, as it has so often elsewhere. It will remain third rate.
A political union with a huge, relatively poor, misogynistic, murderously homophobic (it hangs gay people), anti-Western, terrorism-sponsoring, Islamic theocracy? To save you time wondering, it will never, ever happen.
Persia had a great culture once. Islamism has largely destroyed it, as it has so often elsewhere. It will remain third rate.
A political union with a huge, relatively poor, misogynistic, murderously homophobic (it hangs gay people), anti-Western, terrorism-sponsoring, Islamic theocracy? To save you time wondering, it will never, ever happen.
Persia had a great culture once. Islamism has largely destroyed it, as it has so often elsewhere. It will remain third rate.
A political union with a huge, relatively poor, misogynistic, murderously homophobic (it hangs gay people), anti-Western, terrorism-sponsoring, Islamic theocracy? To save you time wondering, it will never, ever happen.
Persia had a great culture once. Islamism has largely destroyed it, as it has so often elsewhere. Iran will remain third rate.
Good article, albeit too much talk of the Balkan wars. Croatia joins the EU thanks to the reforms it has carried our motivated by the prospect of a better future within Europe, determined to leave its bloody past behind. Croatia, along with its critics and commentators, must move away from history and negativity and look at positive prospects of innovation, market access, and progress which it must now focus on. If looked from this perspective, the picture may appear rosier than this article depicts.
Agreed - Croatia has excellent prospects.
Some of the top priorities for faster development:
- airport reform. Bring in lots of budget airlines - Easyjet, Ryanair, Wizzair and others (or encourage new Croatian budget airlines). Some reform of the market/ competitive bidding process (with requirements that purchased capacity is actually used), reduction of tax and reduction of fees is all probably necessary there. It is essential for Croatia to have a fiercely competitive airline & airport market - to bring in business offices, tourists, scientists, entrepreneurs, you name it (and to allow Croatians to work from Croatia and fly out to clients elsewhere in Europe, etc). Air travel is unusually expensive in Croatia; it needs to be cheap as in Spain, Netherlands or Ireland.
- educational regulatory form - allow (and directly solicit) UK universities to set up campuses on the Adriatic. Bring in fee paying students from around the world, for quality education in one of the Earth's most beautiful locations. So long as airports are cheap, there'll be no trouble bringing the world's best minds to conferences in Croatia. Students have a tendency to stay, build businesses, support high tech investment and form strong connections with the places they study - this would have tremendous positive impact in the parts of Croatia affected.
- support for businesses to interact (for all regulatory compliance and taxation) with government in English (ideally online and automated so far as possible). Allow other European businesses (even small and medium ones) to invest in Croatia (or do small bits of their production in Croatia).
Dear The Economist, please don't worry about Croatia any more, we are fine. But I look forward to your analysis of the case of E. Snowden.
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subset: commoncrawl


text:
Photo manipulation of emotion through image….
A mighty pain to love it is,
And 'tis a pain that pain to miss;
But of all pains, the greatest pain
It is to love, but love in vain….
– Abraham Cowley
Credits to:
Background: AJK-Original-Stock
Model: A68Stock
Balloon: cupcakequeen
String: rkStock
Thank you :-)
Edited in Corel Paint Shop Pro Photo X2
Lovely image Carol!
Thank you Leon :-)
– Carol Knudsen
What a gorgeous piece!
Thank you so much Mel :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Just beautiful Carol!!:-)
Thank you Lynda!!! :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Beautiful image Carol
Thank you Andy! :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Beautiful but sad work , a lovely poem too x
Thank you dear Irene :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Very sweet. Love the balloons
Thank you Lissie :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Fabulous work Carol.
Thank you Adrian.
– Carol Knudsen
Beautifully worked Carol :-))
Thank you Sandra :-)
– Carol Knudsen
Carol , an enchantingly sad image full of melancholy …………I love the gentleness of the colourings …….as if waiting for a new love to make them vibrant again x
Lynne! You are always so supportive and kind! Thank you from the bottom of my heart!
Thank you for the fave too :-)
– Carol Knudsen
another beautiful piece of art, gorgeous !
Aw! Thank you for your sweet words :-)
– Carol Knudsen


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Electric Rates to Remain the Same, For Now
POSTED: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 - 5:09pm
UPDATED: Tuesday, November 15, 2011 - 6:19pm
EL PASO- Your electric rates will stay the same, at least for now.
Today City Council voted to lock the current rates into place. In the meantime, the city wants El Paso Electric to submit a report justifying the rates it already charges. City Representative Courtney Niland says the power company's rates are too high. El Paso Electric says the rates are fair and should be higher.
"I believe that our rates are going to prove to be lower than what we should be receiving and we expect an increase at the end of this process which would be in August," says Richard Fleager, El Paso Electric.
"I find it hard to believe that the Public Utility Commission of Texas which is responsible for making sure municipalities have reasonable rates would raise what are already amongst the highest in the state," says Niland.
The Public Utility Commission will eventually have to set a new permanent rate.


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Even though we ARE Nikon lovers,we are NOT affiliated with Nikon Corp. in any way.
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Asking Price $2400.FREE SHIPPING (UPS) in USAPRISTINE!-NEW in BOX !Reason for Selling: Financial Difficulty.This Nikon D700 was Purchases from CALUMET PHOTOGRAPHIC on 3-26-2009 w/Receipt and Nikon USA Warrantee! Purchase Price was $2699 + $119 for MACK 3year Extended Coverage = $firstname.lastname@example.com or 781-589-6013Thank you,Nick Firicano
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Our selling guidelines require members to state their asking price.Good luck with your sales!
BrianWelsh Nikonian
Thank you, I've updated your request.Nick Firicano
Visit my Nikonians gallery.
Thanks, Nick
Hi Brian, I have USD$1,700 to offer for this camera, please let me know if you are interested in sale this camera to me for this price.Thanks very much. and have a nice day.Pablo
I guess you are a couple of years late.
Petter-Ever wondered where gadgets go when they die?
Is the D700 stil avalible?Cheers, DavidVisit My Nikonians Gallery.


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Hair/Hair things
Hair/Hair things
- 203 Pins
i want to wear one of these head pieces for my wedding someday :D
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beautiful messy hair style for Brides
Flower Crown! Perfect for a beach or bohemian wedding. babies breath
Baby Breath Hair Band ~ By: Beautiful Bridal Hairstyle http://www.wedding.com.my/category-hairstyle-and-makeup/4
Hairstyle inspiration | 10 Wedding hair styles
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messy hair and baby breath garland
Pretty Petal-Crowned Portraits
Hair, facial expression, pose, lighting, colors...this is a great photograph
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Winter Portrait Senior pics
Wavy hair and blue eyes
Beautiful winter hair
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A winter portrait | blue eyes, long hair, and snow.
Poetry: Best Romantic Love Poems For Her
Trenzas peinados hair
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Easy French Braid Tutorial
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10 French Braids Hairstyles Tutorials: Everyday Hair Styles | PoPular Haircuts
So cute
Short Haircuts, Shorts Haircuts, Hair Cut, Shorthaircuts
.love the short haircut
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So pretty.
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love this sophisticated pony tail #hairstyle #girl hairstyle #Hair Style| http://hairstylecollections.blogspot.com
Spice up a pony tail with a braided Ponytail Get the best of both worlds with this braided ponytail hairstyle for long hair. Divide your hair at the back into two sections. Start making a fishtail braid and once you've gone left to right (or right to left) twice, tie the rest of your hair in a ponytail. Now, isn't that simple and adorable? You could do the same with a regular braid if a fishtail braid isn't your cup of tea.
hairstyles for long hair #hairstyle #ideas #paulmitchellschools #pmtsnashville #trends #trendy #hair #style #hairstyles #love #twist #ponytail http://hair.allwomenstalk.com/super-easy-everyday-hairstyles-for-extremely-long-hair/17
low ponytail with criss-cross wrap 1 divide hair into three parts 2 make a low pony tail of the middle section 3 divide remaining side sections into two parts 4 cross top section of each of the 4 side sections over at an angle and pin on each side 5 cross the bottom section of each side over, and then wrap under and around the ponytail and pin. Tutorial is here: http://youtu.be/17NCHN4VPCw
The blair waldorf chic pony tail / Gossip Girl
Everything Fabulous: Hair Inspiration: A Chic PonyTail!
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Short hair styles
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cute short hair cut
So cute!
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Messy french twist hairstyle.
Messy French Twist wedding hair
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Modern Updo for Bridesmaids
the "messy" French twist looks more modern fun. #updo
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messy up do
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Dutch Braid - for medium to thick hair
Dutch braid updo - very #Hair Styles| http://hair-styles-collections-freida.blogspot.com
Dutch braided updo from Hair Romance
Beautiful #Dutch #Braided #Upstyle #Hair #Braid #Hairstyle #Cheveux #Coiffure #Frisur #Haartacht #Tresse #Fashionista #Cabello
Dutch braided updo. website has 12 different hairstyle how-tos. makes me miss my long hair.
dutch braid bun
Dutch French braid updo
Messy Low Ponytail hairstyle
Braids Hairstyles, Curly Hairstyles, Hairstyle Tutorials, Curly Hair Braids, Curly Ponies, Curly Ponytail, Romances Curly, Ponytail Hairstyles Tutorials, Hair Romances
Curly pony
curly ponytail hairstyle tutorial by Hair Romance
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short blonde hair cut
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New Hairstyle Trend – The Bun
Low Bun Hairstyle
Coiffure de mariage / wedding hair style
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bridesmaid hair idea
Low Bun Wedding Hairstyle
Hairstyles For A Destination Wedding | Honeymoons
Kellie Pickler Hair
Short Haircuts, Shorts Haircuts, Hair Cut
kellie pickler short haircut
I want this hair cut and color!
Shannon Voss Hair
Shannon Voss, Short Hairstyles, Hair Cut, Hair Style, Hairstyles Shorts, Voss Pixie, Kentucky Derby, Pixie Cut, Shorts Hairstyles
hair style
Shannon Voss Pixie Hair cut
Shannon Voss attends the Unbridled Eve Gala for the 139th Kentucky Derby at The Galt House Hotel & Suites' Grand Ballroom on May 3, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky. ( - Source: Michael Loccisano/Getty Images North America) see more angles » Newest» Full List»
Shannon Voss Hair - pixie cut
Shannon Voss Pixie - Short Hairstyles Lookbook - StyleBistro
Shannon Voss Pixie
Pixie Hairstyles, Pixie Haircuts, Hair Colors, Round Face, Short Hairstyles, Shorts Haircuts, Hair Style, Pixie Cut, Shorts Hairstyles
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Image detail for -... Women Hairstyles: Pixie Haircuts for Round Faces | New Hairstyles
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Very pretty
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Reese Witherspoon. Love this hair style!!!!
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Reese Witherspoon. Slight side bangs, face framing layers, shoulder length hair...the site also discusses which hair cut looks best with face shape...
Sophisticate's Hairstyle Guide » Cuts For Your Face Shape. Like the style
Reese Witherspoon: side bangs, face framing layers, shoulder length hairstyle
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Beautiful step-by-step tutorial plaited hairstyle, decorated with flower head piece.
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Cute hair style but with out the flower crown
Gorgeous wedding hair style. Beautiful!
love this hair style... if only i had long hair again. :(
Prom hairstyle, half up do
Kirstys wedding hair idea
Braided crown and beach waves
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floral wreath - flower girl?
Beautiful hair style for weddings.
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Such a pretty casual look for long hair
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long blonde braid
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If I like having short hair I might try this... if I have the guts..
Cute hair cut
Az én punk hajam | Hajtővadászat, minden ami haj...
Wedding Hair / Beautiful Bridal Updo


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The residents of Boston take their massages seriously. There are plenty of locations where a good massage can be obtained, but for those looking for the best Boston massage, there are a couple of places that stand out from the rest in terms of quality and the variety of services offered.
Balanced Health on Chauncy St. is a good example of the type of quality operations offering massage therapy in Boston. Balanced Health offers specialized massages to residents that often complement medical care they may be undergoing. The therapists at Balanced Health are experts in the use of neuromuscular massage to relieve muscle spasms and myofascial massages to help with the relief of tension that may gather in the muscles throughout the body. Sports massages are also available, restoring movement in muscles and joints by targeting specific muscle groups through assisted stretching.
Moore Massage, located on Newbury St., focuses on medical massages that can help to manage chronic pain, increase flexibility and maintain good health. At Moore, the therapists create tailored massage programs for the individual therapeutic needs of each customer. Moore has a slew of awards attesting to the quality of the massages offered, with several Best of Boston accolades from the likes of Boston magazine.
Etant on Tremont St. provides a variety of massages given by highly qualified experts in a day spa setting. There's a massage to meet every need. The choices available include their popular Swedish full-body aromatherapy massage, which uses therapeutic oils to enhance the massage experience. Vigorous sports massages are also available, focusing on the muscle groups most likely to be used during the customer's sport of choice. For couples, there's a romantic duet massage, offering a shared Boston massage experience in a single room with two tables and two experienced massage therapists.


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Results ( 4 ) : 2014 - 4.
The Results of Modernizing Network Industries: The Case of Urban Water Services in Europe
citation manager
Authors: T. Bolognesi
Abstract: Since the 1980s, the European Union favours regulatory reforms in network industries and the water sector appears to be the latest to be included in this. We deal with this issue while questioning the concept of "modernization of the Urban Water Sy...stems in Europe" (UWSE). This process began in the second half of 1990 and the Water framework directive (2000) constitutes its main element. Three core principles provide the basis for the modernization of UWSEs: 1/ a rationalisation of the public command; 2/ an increasing use of market mechanisms; 3/ the identification of sustainable development goals. After implementation it appears that many UWSEs fall short of expectations. Our analysis is concentrated on the impacts and the operating mechanisms, impacts of such reform. It is argued that modernization entails a change in the modalities of coordinating UWSEs, while intensifying and polarizing the problems of sustainability around economic issues. At an organizational level, modernization tends to depoliticize UWSEs and increase socio-institutional resilience. These two phenomena are mainly the result of hybridization of institutional arrangements in favour of the market. With respect to sustainability potential, the lack of coherence in the development of UWSEs re-regulation explains the relatively gloomy outlook.hide
The Effects of Liberalization Policies on Price and Quality of Services in the European Union Postal Market
Authors: V. Recai Cetin, I. Irmak
Abstract: This study examines the effects of postal services liberalization and postal market characteristics such as productivity and population density on sector performance indicators of price and quality of service for the EU-27 countries. The EU-27 coun...tries are classified into two groups according to the existence of legal monopoly: high degree and low degree of market opening countries. The results, based on a cross-section country level data belonging to the EU-27 countries for the year 2010, indicate that there is not a statistically significant relationship between the degree of legal openness in the market and performance indicators of price and quality of service. Our analyses show that labour productivity is a key factor which has a statistically significant negative impact on prices and positive impact on quality of services.hide
In Search of Efficiency in Telecoms: Agreements between Undertakings under European Competition Law
Authors: J.C. Laguna De Paz
Abstract: Agreements between telecom operators are allowed, as long as they do not distort competition (Article 101(1) TFEU). In this paper we explore the possibilities for undertakings to cooperate while competing for business. Telecoms are a regulated indu...stry. Therefore operators are not only subject to competition rules, but also to ex ante regulation. However, both kinds of rule tend to play complementary roles. We cannot ignore that there are factors in the industry which may be likely to favour anti-competitive agreements. Notwithstanding this, many agreements are expected to improve efficiency or even enhance competition in the industry. In particular, co-investment agreements may facilitate the deployment of new networks. On the other hand, agreements which restrict competition can be allowed whenever their pro-competitive effects compensate for the restriction of competition (Article 101(3) TFEU). In this sense, most of the joint ventures have been cleared by the Commission due to their positive effects on competition. However, strengthening cooperation is not a way to avoid merger scrutiny.hide
Mergers and Telecommunications Infrastructure Deployment: A Retrospective Analysis
Authors: S.K. Majumdar, R. Moussawi, U. Yaylacicegi
Abstract: We retrospectively evaluate the impact of the various mergers of the local exchange companies in the United States telecommunications industry between 1988 and 2001 on technology investment levels. We use treatment effects modelling to evaluate maj...or mergers in a sector where technology diffusion is important, and the approach accounts for selection bias and the endogenous nature of mergers. Our framework is based on behavioural theories of the firms and we use co-evolutionary and dynamic capabilities approaches in framing our analyses and explaining our results. We find that across firms and time, the merger events are positively and significantly associated with investments in fibre and digital assets. We stratify the data by size of firm to undertake detailed data analysis because of the presence of firm-specific heterogeneities and find that for the smaller merging firms there is a negative and significant association of mergers with investments in fibre and digital assets while for the larger merging firms this mergers and fibre and digital assets investments association is positive and significant. Our results support the predictions of the behavioural theories of the firm, and particularly the dynamic capabilities perspective. We draw implications for theory and competition policy of our results.hide


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Soften gelatin in milk in a heavy saucepan.
Stir over low heat until gelatin is dissolved.
Add the cheese and stir until melted.
Remove from heat and mix in pimiento, parsley, and paprika.
Turn into bowl, cover, and refrigerate until cool.
Fold egg white and cream into the cooled cheese mixture.
Turn into a 2-cup fancy mold; chill several hours, or until firm.
Unmold onto a large serving dish or tray.
Surround with assorted crisp relishes such as celery curls, carrot and zucchini sticks, radish roses, green pepper strips, cucumber slices, green onions, and green and ripe olives.
Serve with a tray of assorted crackers.