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Customer reponse to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York
E-Print Network (OSTI)
ahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices: Case Study of RTPahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices: Case Study of RTPElectricity Prices
Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using
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Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR Title Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR Publication Type Report LBNL Report Number LBNL-5557E Year of Publication 2012 Authors Kim, Joyce Jihyun, and Sila Kiliccote Date Published 06/2012 Publisher LBNL/NYSERDA Keywords commercial, demand response, dynamic pricing, mandatory hourly pricing, open automated demand response, openadr, pilot studies & implementation, price responsive demand Abstract In New York State, the default electricity pricing for large customers is Mandatory Hourly Pricing (MHP), which is charged based on zonal day-ahead market price for energy. With MHP, retail customers can adjust their building load to an economically optimal level according to hourly electricity prices. Yet, many customers seek alternative pricing options such as fixed rates through retail access for their electricity supply. Open Automated Demand Response (OpenADR) is an XML (eXtensible Markup Language) based information exchange model that communicates price and reliability information. It allows customers to evaluate hourly prices and provide demand response in an automated fashion to minimize electricity costs. This document shows how OpenADR can support MHP and facilitate price responsive demand for large commercial customers in New York City.
Scenario Generation for Price Forecasting in Restructured Wholesale Power Markets
In current restructured wholesale power markets, the short length of time series for prices makes it difficult to use empirical price data to test existing price forecasting tools and to develop new price forecasting tools. This study therefore proposes a two-stage approach for generating simulated price scenarios based on the available price data. The first stage consists of an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model for determining scenarios of cleared demands and scheduled generator outages (D&O), and a moment-matching method for reducing the number of D&O scenarios to a practical scale. In the second stage, polynomials are fitted between D&O and wholesale power prices in order to obtain price scenarios for a specified time frame. Time series data from the Midwest ISO (MISO) are used as a test system to validate the proposed approach. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach is able to generate price scenarios for distinct seasons with empirically realistic characteristics.
Qun Zhou; Leigh Tesfatsion; Chen-Ching Liu
Customer Response to Electricity Prices: Information to Support Wholesale Price Forecasting and Market Analysis
Science Conference Proceedings (OSTI)
Understanding customer response to electricity price changes is critical to profitably managing a retail business, designing efficient wholesale power markets, and forecasting power prices for valuation of long-lived generating assets. This report packages the collective results of dozens of price response studies for use by forward price forecasters and power market analysts in forecasting loads, revenues, and the benefits of time-varying prices more accurately. In specific, the report describes key mea...
The role of content regulation on pricing and market power in regional retail and wholesale gasoline markets
Since 1999, regional retail and wholesale gasoline markets in the United States have experienced significant price volatility, both intertemporally and across geographic markets. This paper focuses on one potential explanation ...
Muehlegger, Erich J.
March. Neenan, B. (1992) �Electricity A La Carte� ElectricPrice Responsive? � The Electricity Journal 15(3): 52-59.ahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices: Case Study of RTP
Warm weather, low natural gas prices hold down wholesale power ...
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Energy Information Administration ... Northeastern and Midwestern wholesale power prices typically are linked closely to ... raising the spot market prices for ...
On the stability of wholesale electricity markets under real-time pricing
The paper proposes a mathematical model for the dynamic evolution of supply, demand, and clearing prices under a class of real-time pricing mechanisms characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale prices to the end ...
Roozbehani, Mardavij
Entry into the Swedish Wholesale Electricity Market and the Electricity Price.
?? The aim of this paper is to analyze the strategic behavior of the leading firms on the Swedish wholesale electricity market. This thesis wishes� (more)
Bhatia, Martina
Today in Energy - Average wholesale natural gas prices mostly ...
Average spot natural gas prices, which reflect the wholesale price of natural gas at major trading points, generally declined in most U.S. regional markets about 7% ...
Refiner Wholesale Price ...........................
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (EIA)
Prices (cents per gallon) Prices (cents per gallon) Refiner Wholesale Price ........................... 297 299 302 275 289 290 288 262 275 289 280 257 293 282 276 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes PADD 1 .................................................... 363 366 364 355 361 350 355 331 341 355 347 327 362 349 343 PADD 2 .................................................... 355 366 369 340 350 368 352 318 334 355 346 318 357 347 338 PADD 3 .................................................... 346 353 345 326 339 336 337 307 323 341 329 305 343 330 325 PADD 4 .................................................... 322 374 358 348 323 361 362 326 322 351 348 322 351 344 337 PADD 5 .................................................... 390 413 390 384 382 390 385 355 362 384 379 356 394 378 371 U.S. Average ........................................
Asymmetric Wholesale Pricing: Theory and Evidence
Asymmetric pricing or asymmetric price adjustment is the phenomenon where prices rise more readily than they fall. We offer and provide empirical support for a new theory of asymmetric pricing in wholesale prices. Wholesale prices may adjust asymmetrically ... Keywords: asymmetric price adjustment, asymmetric pricing, channel of distribution, channel pricing, cost of price adjustment, economic model, menu cost, retailing, scanner data, wholesale price
Sourav Ray; Haipeng (Allan) Chen; Mark E. Bergen; Daniel Levy
Price Forecasting and Optimal Operation of Wholesale Customers in a Competitive Electricity Market.
??This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning� (more)
Zareipour, Hamidreza
2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Final Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.
This study presents BPA's market price forecasts for the Final Proposal, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's power rates. AURORA was used as the primary tool for (a) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP Settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years (FY) 2008 and 2009, (b) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments and IOU REP Settlements benefits, (c) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (d) providing a price input used for the risk analysis. For information about the calculation of the secondary revenues, uncertainty regarding the IOU REP Settlement benefits and DSI payment uncertainty, and the risk run, see Risk Analysis Study WP-07-FS-BPA-04.
United States. Bonneville Power Administration.
2007 Wholesale Power Rate Case Initial Proposal : Market Price Forecast Study.
SciTech Connect
This chapter presents BPA's market price forecasts, which are based on AURORA modeling. AURORA calculates the variable cost of the marginal resource in a competitively priced energy market. In competitive market pricing, the marginal cost of production is equivalent to the market-clearing price. Market-clearing prices are important factors for informing BPA's rates. AURORA is used as the primary tool for (a) calculation of the demand rate, (b) shaping the PF rate, (c) estimating the forward price for the IOU REP settlement benefits calculation for fiscal years 2008 and 2009, (d) estimating the uncertainty surrounding DSI payments, (e) informing the secondary revenue forecast and (f) providing a price input used for the risk analysis.
Price forecasting and optimal operation of wholesale customers in a competitive electricity market
c ? Hamidreza Zareipour 2006I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. This thesis addresses two main issues: first, forecasting short-term electricity market prices; and second, the application of short-term electricity market price forecasts to operation planning of demand-side Bulk Electricity Market Customers (BEMCs). The Ontario electricity market is selected as the primary case market and its structure is studied in detail. A set of explanatory variable candidates is then selected accordingly, which may explain price behavior in this market. In the process of selecting the explanatory variable candidates, some important issues, such as direct or indirect effects of the variables on price behavior, availability of the variables before real-time, choice of appropriate forecasting horizon and market time-line, are taken into account. Price and demand in three neighboring electricity markets, namely, the New York, New England, and PJM electricity markets, are also considered among the explanatory variable candidates.
Hamidreza Zareipour
Customer response to day-ahead wholesale market electricity prices: Case study of RTP program experience in New York
There is growing interest in policies, programs and tariffs that encourage customer loads to provide demand response (DR) to help discipline wholesale electricity markets. Proposals at the retail level range from eliminating fixed rate tariffs as the default service for some or all customer groups to reinstituting utility-sponsored load management programs with market-based inducements to curtail. Alternative rate designs include time-of-use (TOU), day-ahead real-time pricing (RTP), critical peak pricing, and even pricing usage at real-time market balancing prices. Some Independent System Operators (ISOs) have implemented their own DR programs whereby load curtailment capabilities are treated as a system resource and are paid an equivalent value. The resulting load reductions from these tariffs and programs provide a variety of benefits, including limiting the ability of suppliers to increase spot and long-term market-clearing prices above competitive levels (Neenan et al., 2002; Boren stein, 2002; Ruff, 2002). Unfortunately, there is little information in the public domain to characterize and quantify how customers actually respond to these alternative dynamic pricing schemes. A few empirical studies of large customer RTP response have shown modest results for most customers, with a few very price-responsive customers providing most of the aggregate response (Herriges et al., 1993; Schwarz et al., 2002). However, these studies examined response to voluntary, two-part RTP programs implemented by utilities in states without retail competition.1 Furthermore, the researchers had limited information on customer characteristics so they were unable to identify the drivers to price response. In the absence of a compelling characterization of why customers join RTP programs and how they respond to prices, many initiatives to modernize retail electricity rates seem to be stymied.
Goldman, C.; Hopper, N.; Sezgen, O.; Moezzi, M.; Bharvirkar, R.; Neenan, B.; Boisvert, R.; Cappers, P.; Pratt, D.
Auction Basics for Wholesale Power Markets:Auction Basics for Wholesale Power Markets: Objectives and Pricing RulesObjectives and Pricing Rules
" "maximum willingness to pay" is also called a "(buyer) reservation value." #12;8 Buyer 2 Demand Bid: P (Inverse) Demand Function:Total System (Inverse) Demand Function: P=D(Q)P=D(Q) P 0 90 10 30 50 70 Maximum OutlinePresentation Outline Introduction Double auction basics for power markets Supply, demand, & market
Tesfatsion, Leigh
2012 Brief: Average wholesale electricity prices down compared ...
2012 Brief: Average wholesale electricity prices down compared to last year. ... wholesale electric power prices often trend together with natural gas prices.
Price Responsive Demand in New York Wholesale Electricity Market using OpenADR
Dynamic Pricing and Smart Grid. Lawrence Berkeley Nationaland Technology's (NIST) Smart Grid Standards developmentcertification program. The Smart Grid Architectural Council
Kim, Joyce Jihyun
Diagnosing Market Power in California's Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Market
Effective competition in wholesale electricity markets is a necessary feature of a successful electricity supply industry restructuring. We examine the degree of competition in the California wholesale electricity market during the period June 1998 to September 1999 by comparing the market prices with estimates of the prices that would have resulted if owners of instate fossil fuel generating facilities behaved as price takers. We find that there were significant departures from competitive pricing and that these departures are most pronounced during the highest demand periods, which tend to occur during the months of July through September. Through most of the winter and spring of 1999 there was little evidence of the exercise of market power. We find a significantly lower amount of market power exercised during summer 1999 than for the same months in summer 1998. Overall, the exercise of market power raised the cost of power purchases by about 16% above the competitive level. Following the p...
Severin Borenstein; Severin Borenstein; James Bushnell; James Bushnell; Frank Wolak; Frank Wolak
www.analysisgroup.com Uniform-Pricing versus Pay-as-Bid in Wholesale Electricity Markets: Does it Make a Difference? 1
Electricity prices have been rising. Over the last decade, average electricity prices in the U.S. have increased by one-third. 2 These price increases coincide with policy changes in many parts of the country that introduced greater reliance on market forces into the electric industry. Although today�s electricity prices are still relatively low in historical terms (about two-thirds of their 1980s levels when adjusted for inflation 3) and rising electricity prices have been largely the result of movements in global markets for fossil fuels, these price increases have nonetheless placed pressure on policy makers in a number of recently restructured electricity markets to question whether power prices have increased due to the design of competitive markets. Some observers have begun to push for redesign of market rules or even a return to elements of traditional cost-of-service regulation in the electric industry. 4 Among the proposed reforms are changes to the design of auction processes used in various wholesale electricity markets. These auctions involve offers to supply power, and, potentially, bids to buy power. The auction determines the identity of the �winners�
Susan F. Tierney, Ph.D.; Todd Schatzki Ph. D; Rana Mukerji; Susan Tierney, Ph.D.; Todd Schatzki, Ph.D.; Rana Mukerji
Advanced Metering, and Demand Response in Electricity2006. Benefits of Demand Response in Electricity Markets and2010. Open Automated Demand Response Technologies for
and Demand Response in Electricity Markets." University ofRates and Tariffs /Schedule for Electricity Service, P.S.C.no. 10- Electricity/Rules 24 (Riders)/Leaf No. 177-327."
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S.
local-level wholesale energy market price dynamics and localare included. Energy factor market prices, the shape of theare included. Energy factor market prices, the shape of the
Jaffee, Dwight M.; Stanton, Richard; Wallace, Nancy E.
Jaffee, Dwight; Stanton, Richard; Wallace, Nancy
Average wholesale spot natural gas prices rose across the country ...
Wholesale spot natural gas prices rose across the country in 2010. Average spot natural gas prices at the Henry Hub�a key benchmark location for pricing throughout ...
Demand response participation in PJM wholesale markets
This paper provides an overview of demand response resource participation in PJM wholesale ancillary service markets which include: Day Ahead Scheduling Reserves, Synchronized Reserves and Regulation.
Peter L. Langbein
Wholesale electricity price changes diverge across regions during ...
Trends in average on-peak spot electricity prices, the wholesale price of electricity at major trading points, varied across the United States in the first half ...
Average wholesale electric power prices rose in 2010 - Today in ...
Average wholesale electric power prices rose in 2010, due to higher national natural gas prices and increased demand for electricity, particularly in the Eastern ...
Electronic OTC Trading in the German Wholesale Electricity Market
Abstract. Recent changes in the German energy policy initiated a deregulation process from a monopolistic to a competitive market, fundamentally changing the market structure, transaction relationships and trading processes. While the mutual exchange of electric energy has been a business activity between vertically integrated utilities for a long time, wholesale electricity trading in an open market only recently started to gain momentum. Electricity becomes a commodity traded at power exchanges and off-exchange on over the counter (OTC) markets. In Germany, the wholesale electricity market is dominated by OTC trading. Trading in OTC markets is usually performed via telephone and facsimile which leads to a limited price transparency, a limited liquidity, an ex ante restricted number of potential market partners and, last but not least, substantial transaction costs. Market participants are therefore searching for new trading mechanisms to circumvent the problems of the current trading processes. The electronization of trading activities promises to reduce the disadvantages of current OTC trading processes through the automation of tasks within the transaction chain. In this context, electronic markets for electricity trading are coordination mechanisms for the market exchange of electricity and electricity derivatives, i. e., a virtual market place where supply and demand meet and trade. An important feature of electronic markets is an automated dynamic pricing which is currently not supported by electronic markets available for electricity trading in the German wholesale market. A concept for an Electronic Electricity Trading System is therefore proposed with a main focus on automated price discovery.
Stefan Strecker; Christof Weinhardt
The role of vibrant retail electricity markets in assuring that wholesale power markets operate effectively
Barriers to competitive supplier entry such as California's wholesale-price pass-through model can provide an almost insurmountable barrier to effective retail competition. The telecommunications, airline, and software industries provide lessons--positive and negative--on how creating competitive wholesale markets is insufficient to bring the benefits of competition to smaller consumers.
Goulding, A.J.; Rufin, C.; Swinand, G.
Supreme court agrees: FERC must regulate wholesale markets
The author believes that wholesale markets in the United States would have a greater likelihood of ultimately benefiting consumers if the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission did not have the mandate under the Federal Power Act (FPA) to ensure that wholesale prices are ''just and reasonable.'' However, he continues to believe that the FERC cannot avoid having an ex post criteria for asssessing whether market prices are just and reasonable. Moreover, changes in the design and regulatory oversight of U.S. wholesale electricity markets in recent years, including the recent Supreme Court decision, have caused him to believe even more strongly in the guardrails-for-market-outcomes approach. Finally, several questions are addressed which relate to the pricing of fixed-price, long-term contracts and the impact of these obligations on the behavior of suppliers in short-term wholesale markets that are directly relevant to answering the two major questions that the Supreme Court remanded to FERC in its recent decision.
Wolak, Frank A. (Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies, Department of Economics, Stanford University)
Eric S. Schubert is a Senior Market Economist at the Wholesale Market Oversight of the Public
establishes an Energy-Only resource adequacy mechanism in the ERCOT electricity market, relaxes the $1,000 per and Shmuel Oren I. Introduction The energy market posts a real- time clearing price of $1,000 per MWhEric S. Schubert is a Senior Market Economist at the Wholesale Market Oversight of the Public
Oren, Shmuel S.
of the monthly electricity bill), (3) the pricing methodof the monthly SC-3A electricity bill (@ X%) Hedge PricePrice @ Cost (as % of electricity bill) Covered Hours: Hedge
Response to Electricity Real-Time Prices: Short Run and LongElectricity Usage to Real Time Prices A-31 v List ofwere linked to real-time prices, most customers indicated
Exploring Alternative Wholesale Electricity Market Structures for California
The California Energy Commission workshop, Exploring Alternative Wholesale Electricity Market Structures for California, brought together a broad spectrum of industry stakeholders to evaluate alternative power market structures for their ability to reduce price volatility and ensure reliable energy service. This document includes workshop papers, presentations, and panel discussions. This information can help energy planners, regulators, and policy makers understand the lessons of the California power cr...
Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market Hourly Electricity Pricing
next day�s hourly electricity prices? ( CHECK ONLY ONE ) 1.to Real Time Electricity Prices, Unpublished Manuscript atahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices: Case Study of RTP
Retail Market Based Pricing: Retail Market Based Pricing - Three Cases
Customers are not provided with incentives for efficient conservation and substitution of electricity away from peak periods if they do not face prices that reflect the real-time cost of purchasing wholesale electricity that is experienced by their retail energy provider. Recent events in California's restructured electricity market underscore the importance of developing products and structures that enable demand response to changes in prices in these markets. This report assembles three studies of cust...
Wholesale electricity prices are lower during the first half of ...
A combination of natural gas prices at 10-year lows and the warmest winter on record led to lower on-peak wholesale electricity prices so far in 2012.
Plentiful water and low natural gas prices cut Northwest wholesale ...
Since the beginning of the year, Northwest wholesale power prices at the Mid-Columbia trading point have averaged 45% below the 5-year average (2006-2010) prices, and ...
Predicting market power in wholesale electricity markets
in California and more recently in the EU Sector Inquiry. The paper investigates its value in identifying the ability of ?rms to raise prices in an electricity market with contracts and capacity constraints and ?nd that it is most useful for the case of a single... positive number. Estimates for the value of the short-run demand elasticity for electricity are quite low, and over periods of months possibly below 0:25 for the ?domestic and other industry? sector, judging by the response to extraordinarily sharp price...
Newbery, David
Hedging Quantity Risks with Standard Power Options in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market
Hedging Quantity Risks with Standard Power Options in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity MarketScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). Abstract: This paper addresses quantity risk in the electricity market-serving entity, which provides electricity service at a regulated price in electricity markets with price
contractual, energy and market-related characteristics. Afunction of local energy-market and weather characteristicslocal-level wholesale energy market price dynamics and local
contractual, energy and market-related characteristics. Alocal-level wholesale energy market price dynamics and localexpenses, and energy factor market inputs. In a companion
A Threshold Autoregressive Model for Wholesale Electricity Prices
A Threshold Autoregressive Model for Wholesale Electricity Prices B. Ricky Rambharat Carnegie model; electricity prices; spikes; Markov chain Monte Carlo. 1. Introduction The dynamics of electricity of electricity price dynamics is essential for pricing and hedging financial futures and options on power
Finding the market price
The short-term power exchange offers a glimpse of the deregulated power market. As the electric power industry goes the way of other formerly regulated monopolicies in the United States, incentives will continue to grow for novel ways to trade electricity in hitherto uncharted markets. The emergence of open power markets. The emergence of open power markets thus far has been a patchwork affair. Federally mandated competition in wholesale markets has only recently taken place and all jurisdictional transmission owners must file open access transmission tariffs with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. The national agenda has been spotted here and there by state or even utility-specific efforts to unlock retail markets but most of these will take years to implement. Thus, the most common complaint of power market professions is a basic one: It is difficult to determine the market price of electricity. The basic building blocks of an efficient market are missing, e.g. no multitudes of willing buyers and sellers, few arms-length purchases, no price transparency.
Huetteman, T.J.; Stasiak, S.
Wholesale/Spot Henry Hub Spot Price ........
Wholesale/Spot Wholesale/Spot Henry Hub Spot Price ........ 2.52 2.35 2.97 3.50 3.59 4.13 3.66 3.83 3.92 3.67 3.92 4.08 2.83 3.81 3.90 Residential New England ...................... 13.08 14.05 16.86 13.62 13.05 13.88 17.27 14.17 14.04 15.15 18.40 15.22 13.73 13.84 14.91 Middle Atlantic .................... 11.34 13.46 16.92 11.76 10.98 13.32 17.88 13.58 12.80 14.60 18.94 14.39 12.20 12.56 13.95 E. N. Central ...................... 8.30 10.68 15.52 8.57 7.74 10.79 15.82 9.37 8.80 11.38 17.13 10.31 9.20 9.15 10.13 W. N. Central ..................... 8.45 11.99 16.39 9.08 8.10 10.47 17.24 9.38 8.79 11.27 17.99 10.23 9.60 9.35 10.11 S. Atlantic ........................... 12.37 17.68 22.08 12.24 11.10 15.05 22.27 13.49 12.56 18.03 24.66 14.95 13.71 13.12 14.77 E. S. Central ....................... 10.26 14.69 17.56 10.41 9.25 12.36 18.26 11.50
Wholesale electricity prices rose across the United States - Today ...
Average on-peak, day-ahead wholesale electricity prices rose in every region of the Lower 48 states in first-half 2013 compared to first-half 2012.
A Threshold Autoregressive Model for Wholesale Electricity Prices B. Ricky Rambharat, Department, 2003 Abstract We introduce a discrete-time model for electricity prices, which accounts for both spikes Introduction The study of electricity price dynamics has attracted significant attention from researchers
Wholesale Markets | Data.gov
.firstname.lastname@example.com Unique Identifier USDA-29221 Public Access Level public Data Dictionary Data Download URL http:apps.ams.usda.govMarketingPublicationSearch Format HTML...
An agent-based decision support system for wholesale electricity market
Application software has been developed for analyzing and understanding a dynamic price change in the US wholesale power market. Traders can use the software as an effective decision-making tool by modeling and simulating a power market. The software ... Keywords: Agent-based approach, Decision support software, Electricity market, Machine learning
Toshiyuki Sueyoshi; Gopalakrishna R. Tadiparthi
ESS 2012 Peer Review - Wholesale Electricity Market Design Project...
Energy.gov (U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)) Indexed Site
horizontal position with even amount of white space between photos and header Wholesale Electricity Market Design Project September 28, 2012 Jim Ellison, Verne Loose, Ray Byrne,...
The Potential Impacts of a Competitive Wholesale Market in the...
Independent System Operator (MISO) will begin operating the first ever, formal wholesale market for electricity in the central and upper Midwestern portion of the United States....
Measuring efficiency in wholesale electricity markets
The mechanisms of the bid-based economic dispatch and market power mitigation algorithms which result in the market clearing price epitomize the complexity of the new regulatory regime. The augmented Lerner Index presented here offers a method to objectively assess the efficiency of the new structure. (author)
Bowden, Nicholas S.
Open Automated Demand Response Dynamic Pricing Technologies and Demonstration
charges. � Wholesale energy market prices are volatile, andCAISO�s Wholesale Energy Market Prices PG&E�s PDP RetailWe used the CAISO wholesale energy market prices for the RTP
Ghatikar, Girish
The Implementation of California AB 32 and its Impact on Wholesale Electricity Markets
its Impact on Wholesale Electricity Markets James Bushnellits Impact on Wholesale Electricity Markets James Bushnell *gas emissions from electricity and perhaps other industries.
Bushnell, Jim B
Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications of Price-Elastic...
absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spot market) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers...
Open Automated Demand Response Technologies for Dynamic Pricing and Smart Grid
CAISO�s Wholesale Energy Market Prices PG&E�s PDP TariffWe used the CAISO wholesale energy market prices for the RTPusing CAISO wholesale energy market prices allowed us to
Composition of Electricity Generation Portfolios, Pivotal Dynamics, and Market Prices
We use simulations to study how the diversification of electricity generation portfolios influences wholesale prices. We find that the relationship between technological diversification and market prices is mediated by the supply-to-demand ratio. In ... Keywords: electricity, market power, simulations, technology diversification
Albert Banal-Esta�ol; Augusto Rup�rez Micola
Residential Price - Marketers
Average Price of Natural Gas Delivered to Residential and Commercial Consumers by Local Distribution and Marketers in Selected States (Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet ...
Market power in the England and Wales wholesale electricity [market, 1995-2000
This paper shows that generators exercised increasing market power in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market in the second half of the 1990s despite declining market concentration. It examines whether this was ...
Sweeting, Andrew
Wholesale electricity prices in New York City are the highest in ...
Wholesale, on-peak electricity prices in New York City are the highest in the contiguous United States. In 2010, the average day-ahead, on-peak spot price of ...
Using Environmental Emissions Permit Prices to Raise Electricity Prices: Evidence from the California Electricity Market
Permit Prices to Raise Electricity Prices: Evidence from thePermit Prices to Raise Electricity Prices: Evidence from thehigher wholesale electricity prices, during the third and
Kolstad, Jonathan; Wolak, Frank
Electricity price forecasting in a grid environment.
??Accurate electricity price forecasting is critical to market participants in wholesale electricity markets. Market participants rely on price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate� (more)
Li, Guang, 1974-
Bilevel optimization applied to strategic pricing in competitive electricity markets
In this paper, we present a bilevel programming formulation for the problem of strategic bidding under uncertainty in a wholesale energy market (WEM), where the economic remuneration of each generator depends on the ability of its own management to ... Keywords: Bilevel programming, Electricity pool market, Mathematical program with equilibrium constraints, Strategic pricing
M. Fampa; L. A. Barroso; D. Candal; L. Simonetti
Understanding the Benefits of Dispersed Grid-Connected Photovoltaics: From Avoiding the Next Major Outage to Taming Wholesale Power Markets
Thanks to new solar resource assessment techniques using cloud cover data available from geostationary satellites, it is apparent that grid-connected PV installations can serve to enhance electric grid reliability, preventing or hastening recovery from major power outages and serving to mitigate extreme price spikes in wholesale energy markets. (author)
Letendre, Steven E.; Perez, Richard
Pipeline constraints in wholesale natural gas markets.
??Natural gas markets in the United States depend on an extensive network of pipelines to transport gas from production fields to end users. While these� (more)
Avalos, Roger George.
Market Transparency and Forward Contracts: an Application to the Wholesale Market for Natural Gas ?
We present a n-firm oligopoly model of strategic behavior in forward and spot markets that incorporates explicitly (i) firm heterogeneity in costs and in aversion to risk, and (ii) the extent to which the forward market is transparent. We show that the equilibrium hedge ratio of a firm is independent of the demand intercept parameter and of the marginal cost of the firm, increases as the firm becomes more risk-averse and as demand volatility goes up, while it decreases as the rival firms become more risk-averse. Moreover, the hedge ratio of a firm decreases as the forward market becomes more transparent and increases as the number of competitors goes up. Using data from the Dutch wholesale market for natural gas where we observe the number of players, spot and forward sales, churn rates and spot prices, we find evidence that strategic reasons play an important role at explaining the observed firms � inverse hedge ratios. In order to assess how transparent the market really is, we estimate the model structurally. According to our estimates, the Dutch market for forward natural gas contracts appears to be quite transparent,
Remco Eijkel; Jos� L. Moraga-gonz�lez
Negative prices in wholesale electricity markets indicate ...
Energy Information Administration ... nuclear plant operators try to continuously operate at full power. The operation of hydroelectric units reflects factors outside ...
Integrating Renewable Energy Contracts and Wholesale Dynamic Pricing to Serve Aggregate
1 Integrating Renewable Energy Contracts and Wholesale Dynamic Pricing to Serve Aggregate Flexible batteries, with renewable energy resources. We formulate a stochastic optimal control problem that describes and the degree to which the aggregator can respond to dynamic pricing. Index Terms--Dynamic pricing, renewable
Gasoline Prices Also Influenced by Regional Gasoline Product Markets
1 1 Notes: Next we examine the wholesale market's added contribution to gasoline price variation and analyze the factors that impact the gasoline balance. There are two points to take away from this chart: The U.S. market moves with the world market, as can be seen with the high inventories in 1998, being drawn down to low levels during 1999. Crude and product markets are not independent. Crude oil and product markets move together fairly closely, with some lead/lag effects during transitions. The relationship between international crude oil markets and domestic product markets raises another issue. A subtle, but very important point, lost in recent discussions of gasoline price increases: The statement has been made that crude markets are not a factor in this past spring's high gasoline prices, since crude prices were
OASIS SDO. �Energy Market Information Exchange (eMIX)information are published: For each of these wholesale markets, wholesale prices for energy andInformation System (OASIS) [7]. We used the CAISO wholesale energy market
An Evaluation of Demand Response in New York State's Wholesale Electricity Markets .
??This thesis identifies the conditions under which and quantifies how much society gains from integrating demand response directly into wholesale electricity markets and the level� (more)
Cappers, Peter Andrew
Market behavior under partial price controls: the case of the retail gasoline market
The use of firm-specific controls on the price of gasoline during 1979 and 1980, at both the wholesale and the retail level, dramatically affected the retail market for gasoline. The most visible effect was a diversity of monetary prices across service stations within particular retail market areas. Price could no longer play its usual role in clearing the retail market for gasoline. Queues and other changes in quality of service at stations arose to maintain the balance of market demand and supply. This report examines the behavior of an otherwise competitive market in the presence of such regulation-induced nonprice phenomena. In such a market, consumers consider both monetary prices and costs imposed by queues in deciding where to buy gasoline and how much to buy. Using a price-theoretic model of behavior, this paper predicts how various changes in effective price regulation affect consumers. 14 references, 7 figures, 2 tables.
Camm, F.
Property:EIA/861/ActivityWholesaleMarketing | Open Energy Information
Open Energy Info (EERE)
ActivityWholesaleMarketing ActivityWholesaleMarketing Jump to: navigation, search This is a property of type Boolean. Description: Activity Wholesale Marketing Entity engages in wholesale power marketing (Y or N) [1] References ↑ EIA Form EIA-861 Final Data File for 2008 - F861 File Layout-2008.doc Pages using the property "EIA/861/ActivityWholesaleMarketing" Showing 25 pages using this property. (previous 25) (next 25) A AEP Generating Company + true + AES Eastern Energy LP + true + AGC Division of APG Inc + true + Alabama Power Co + true + Alaska Power and Telephone Co + true + Allegheny Energy Supply Co LLC + true + Ameren Energy Marketing + true + American Mun Power-Ohio, Inc + true + Arizona Electric Pwr Coop Inc + true + Arizona Public Service Co + true + Arkansas Electric Coop Corp + true +
The Impact of Wind Power Generation on Wholesale Electricity Price ...
price for power generation are examined to forecast LNG price for power genera- tion. Information on future power plant's construction and decommission plan�...
An algorithmic game theory study of wholesale electricity markets based on central auction
The deregulation of the electricity markets produced significant economic benefits. Improving their efficiency is a prominent scientific challenge. We focus on wholesale electricity markets, in which generators sell electricity to a public agency by ...
Sofia Ceppi; Nicola Gatti
Real Time Pricing and the Real Live Firm
ahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices: Case Study of RTPfluctuations in electricity prices are based on theories ofto increases in electricity prices, as long as doing so
Moezzi, Mithra; Goldman, Charles; Sezgen, Osman; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Hopper, Nicole
Update On The Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast & Modeling Results
Forecast Base Case includes § Medium Demand Forecast § Medium Natural Gas Price Forecast § Federal CO2 Rathdrum Power LLC-ID 4) CO2 Emissions - 2009 Selected Natural Gas Plants Plant level, emission percentage § Significantly lower electricity prices than 6th Plan Forecast, due to lower demand, lower gas prices, deferred
The Market Value and Cost of Solar Photovoltaic Electricity Production
variation in market prices for energy re?ect the productionsent by energy markets. By distorting e?cient energy priceenergy payments in the wholesale market. In particular, I assume that the wholesale price
Borenstein, Severin
Table C6. Wholesale Propane Prices by Region and State (Cents ...
Wholesale Propane Prices by Region and State (Cents per Gallon) P=Preliminary data. ... New York 67.5 68.3 67.2 72.0 74.4 86.0 89.2 82.8 86.6 131.8 94.3 80.2
REPORT TO CONGRESS ON COMPETITION IN WHOLESALE AND RETAIL MARKETS REPORT TO CONGRESS ON COMPETITION IN WHOLESALE AND RETAIL MARKETS FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY REPORT TO CONGRESS ON COMPETITION IN WHOLESALE AND RETAIL MARKETS FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY The enclosed report is submitted to Congress pursuant to section 1815 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Section 1815 of the Act established a five-member Electric Energy Market Competition Task Force. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005)1 was designed to provide a comprehensive long-range energy plan for the United States. Section 1815 of the Act2 created an "Electric Energy Market Competition Task Force"3 (Task Force) to conduct a study of competition in wholesale and retail markets for electricity in the United States. Section 1815(b)(2)(B) required the Task Force to publish a draft final report for public comment
Wholesale electricity prices spike in Texas - Today in Energy - U ...
Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel ... starting in April of this year. ... included start-up costs in their bids to come back from outage ...
Warm weather, low natural gas prices hold down wholesale ...
Solar � Energy in Brief ... Cold weather around January 4 and January 16 contributed to higher spot natural gas and power prices in hubs in New York ...
2012 Brief: Average wholesale electricity prices down compared to ...
Average, on-peak (weekdays from 7:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m.) day-ahead electricity prices were lower across the entire United States in 2012 compared to 2011.
2011 Brief: Wholesale electricity prices mostly lower in 2011 ...
Average, on-peak day-ahead electricity prices were lower across most of the United States in 2011. The largest exception was in the ERCOT region (most of Texas) where ...
The wholesale market for electricity in England and Wales : recent developments and future reforms
The England and Wales wholesale electricity market is about to undergo major reform (NETA). I describe and analyse the proposed arrangements, contrasting them with those currently in operation. I argue that while NETA will ...
Trading and Prices in Commodity Markets
Trading and Prices in Commodity Markets EIA 2013 Workshop on Financial and Physical Oil Market Linkages ... Director of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis
The Information Efficiency of Market Prices
aggregation of information in competitive markets, Journalstock markets where trades have diverse information, JournalTHE INFORMATION EFFICIENCY OF MARKET PRICES July 1985 by
Bossaerts, Peter
Reliability and Competitive Electricity Markets
as energy is dispatched only when the market price exceedsof energy sold in the wholesale spot market: � The price-energy dispatched through the market and a second higher price
Joskow, Paul; Tirole, Jean
New wholesale power market design using linked forward markets : a study for the DOE energy storage systems program.
This report proposes a reformulation of U.S. ISO/RTO-managed wholesale electric power mar- kets for improved reliability and e ciency of system operations. Current markets do not specify or compensate primary frequency response. They also unnecessarily limit the participation of new technologies in reserve markets and o er insu cient economic inducements for new capacity invest- ment. In the proposed market reformulation, energy products are represented as physically-covered rm contracts and reserve products as physically-covered call option contracts. Trading of these products is supported by a backbone of linked ISO/RTO-managed forward markets with planning horizons ranging from multiple years to minutes ahead. A principal advantage of this reformulation is that reserve needs can be speci ed in detail, and resources can o er the services for which they are best suited, without being forced to conform to rigid reserve product de nitions. This should improve the business case for electric energy storage and other emerging technologies to provide reserve. In addition, the facilitation of price discovery should help to ensure e cient energy/reserve procurement and adequate levels of new capacity investment.
Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William; Ellison, James F.; Elliott, Ryan Thomas; Byrne, Raymond Harry; Guttromson, Ross; Tesfatsion, Leigh S. [Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets.
??This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that� (more)
Popova, Julia.
Price Changes in the Gasoline Market
Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (EIA)
1999 Price Changes in the Gasoline Market Are Midwestern Gasoline Prices Downward Sticky? Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585 This report was prepared by the...
Edgeworth Price Cycles, Cost-based Pricing and Sticky Pricing in Retail Gasoline Markets
Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes? �, QuarterlyS. , A. Shepard. �Sticky Prices, Inventories, and MarketGas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctua- tions�, Review of
Noel, Michael
Managing transmission curtailment risk in wholesale power markets
Risk resulting from transmission loading relief calls made by transmission system operators can be managed with information estimated by a statistical model capable of predicting one day in advance the probability that a particular wholesale power transaction might be curtailed. The model predicts this probability with a reasonable degree of accuracy using information on variables that can be obtained publicly. (author)
Morey, Mathew J.; Kirsch, Laurence D.
Limit order markets, liquidity, and price impact
In this thesis, I explore various aspects of market liquidity and analyze its effect on asset prices. First, in a model of a limit order market I explain how to define liquidity and derive a price impact function. Second, ...
Rosu, Ioanid, 1970-
Price changes in the gasoline market: Are Midwestern gasoline prices downward sticky?
This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oil prices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.
The Speed of Gasoline Price Response in Markets With and Without Edgeworth Cycles
Eckert, Andrew, �Retail Price Cycles and the Presence ofLewis, Matthew, �Asymmetric Price Adjustment and ConsumerTemporary Wholesale Gasoline Price Spikes have Long-lasting
Lewis, Matt; Noel, Michael
Electricity market clearing price forecasting under a deregulated electricity market .
??Under deregulated electric market, electricity price is no longer set by the monopoly utility company rather it responds to the market and operating conditions. Offering� (more)
Yan, Xing
Dynamic performance of restructured wholesale power markets with learning generation companies: an agent-based test bed study.
??In April 2003, the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) proposed a new market design for U.S. wholesale power markets. Core features of this design� (more)
Li, Hongyan
The potential impacts of a competitive wholesale market in the midwest: A preliminary examination of centralized dispatch
In March 2005, the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) will begin operating the first-ever wholesale market for electricity in the central and upper Midwestern portion of the United States. Region-wide, centralized, security-constrained, bid-based dispatch will replace the current system of decentralized dispatch by individual utilities and control areas. This report focuses on how the operation of generators may change under centralized dispatch. We analyze a stylized example of these changes by comparing a base case dispatch based on a ''snapshot'' taken from MISO's state estimator for an actual, historical dispatch (4 p.m., July 7, 2003) to a hypothetical, centralized dispatch that seeks to minimize the total system cost of production, using estimated cost data collected by the EIA. Based on these changes in dispatch, we calculate locational marginal prices, which in turn reveals the location of congestion within MISO's footprint, as well as the distribution of congestion revenues. We also consider two sensitivity scenarios that examine (1) the effect of changes in MISO membership (2003 vs. 2004 membership lists), and (2) different load and electrical data, based on a snapshot from a different date and time (1 p.m., Feb. 18, 2004). Although our analysis offers important insights into how the MISO market could operate when it opens, we do not address the question of the total benefits or costs of creating a wholesale market in the Midwest.
Lesieutre, Bernard C.; Bartholomew, Emily; Eto, Joseph H.; Hale, Douglas; Luong, Thanh
Measuring Unilateral Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets: The California Market 1998 - 2000
$20/MWh, even at the natural gas prices than existed duringthe late summer of 2000 natural gas prices were almost three2000, because higher natural gas prices during the summer of
Wolak, Frank
Oligopoly Equilibria in Electricity Contract Markets
2005) �Time-Varying Retail Electricity Prices: Theory andof U.S. Restructured Electricity Markets. CSEM Working Papers Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Market. � American
Bushnell, James
Coordination of Retail Demand Response with Midwest ISO Markets
will buy for a given energy markets price. Dispatchable byindexed to wholesale energy market prices (i.e. either day-real-time or day-ahead energy market price. The RTP tariffs
Bharvirkar, Ranjit
Assessment of Wholesale Market Opportunities for Participation and Aggregation of Distributed Resources
This report provides an assessment of existing opportunities for participation and aggregation of distributed resources in organized wholesale electricity markets. The assessment provides an organized structure for identifying opportunities and requirements for distributed resources to participate in independent system operators (ISOs) and regional transmission organizations (RTOs) markets, either through direct participation or in aggregation. In the report, high-level aggregation, minimum size, and com...
Recent changes in the German energy policy initiated a deregulation process from a monopolistic to a competitive market, fundamentally changing the market structure, transaction relationships and trading processes. While the mutual exchange of electric ...
Dynamic Pricing and Learning in Electricity Markets
We analyze the price-formation process in an infinite-horizon oligopoly model where hydroelectric generators engage in dynamic price-based competition. The analysis focuses on the role of "indifference" prices, i.e., prices that equate the gains from ... Keywords: Dynamic auctions, Economics, Games: stochastic, Natural resources: energy, Noncooperative, Restructured electricity markets, Water resources
Alfredo Garcia; Enrique Campos-Na�ez; James Reitzes
An Analysis of Price Volatility in Natural Gas Markets
Market prices respond to shifts in supply and demand, and the degree of price response relates to the price elasticity of both. Natural gas prices have been particularly
Prototype System for Managing Wholesale Market Exposure to Volatile Retail Load Exposure
This presentation reports on development of a prototype customer exposure management system that combines the Energy Book System's (EBS's) capabilities to represent full-requirement loads with a model to represent those loads as a stochastic process that can be updated as the delivery date approaches. This system will give risk managers the ability to track the successive narrowing of uncertainty in both wholesale power prices and customer loads as the delivery date approaches, and to develop optimal hed...
Electricity Market Design and Price Manipulation
Integration of physical transactions and financial contracts is central to successful electricity market design. Virtually every energy transaction has some impact on prices. The mere fact that a physical transaction can affect prices to some degree, and thereby influence the prices of related financial contracts, cannot be a per se definition of price manipulation. A principled policy for characterizing price manipulation in organized electricity markets includes a stand-alone profitability test. Multiple market-clearing prices arise from degenerate pricing conditions that can occur in electricity markets under economic dispatch. In some instances, small changes in bilateral schedules can produce large changes in prices. These prices affect the value of associated financial transmission rights. A stand-alone profitability test distinguishes transactions that are consistent with workably competitive markets from transactions that serve no economic purpose other than to manipulate prices and profit from other financial contracts. Generalizing this standard to the degenerate conditions that give rise to multiple market-clearing prices provides a principled solution without undermining the market-design foundations that integrate economic dispatch, locational prices and financial transmission rights.
William W. Hogan; William W. Hogan I
Electric Wholesale Market Regimes in the United States: Implications...
Regimes in the United States: Implications for Investment PowerPoint presentation to the Electricity Advisory Committee by Charles Whitmore, Senior Market Advisor at the Federal...
Auction market simulator for price based operation
Through the passage of new public utility regulatory policies, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) encourages an open market system for price based operation. A previous paper describes a framework for price based operation and the associated technical issues in an auction market structure. This paper presents an auction market simulator to experimentally study the aspects of power system operation in price-based environment. The proposed simulator can also be used as a tool to train the system operators how to perform electric power transaction in the deregulated environment. This paper presents the simulation results of auction market for price based operation in the 24-bus, 10-generator IEEE Reliability Test System.
Kumar, J.; Sheble, G. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Commerical Price - Marketers - Energy Information Administration
.D. 1293 Alvarado, Rd. Berkeley, California, 94705 USA email@example.com This report was prepared incentives for participants to respond efficiently to uncertain demand and supply. Moreover, it mitigates eligible demand side bids (whether dispatched or not) from the capacity fee component of the MAE price
Utility Marketing Strategies & Pricing Trends
Marketing seems to have come out of the utility closet once again, but it is a far sight different from that of the 1970s. While some are still on a �sell, Sell, SELL!� campaign, most are soberly looking at their customers from a different perspective. They are concerned about losing them to other service territories or seeing them vanish to domestic and foreign competition. There is a sense of a �strategic alliance� being sought by the most proactive of utilities in which they become allies of their customers. In this sense, the issue of how much these customers purchased from them vanishes into the shadows of the more important elements of the relationships. Oh sure, there still are some pushing technology as the customer�s answer. And there are others using incentive and other rate gambits to develop strategic load building. But there is a definite trend emerging toward building the relationship for the long haul and putting short range profit or number game objectives on the back burner. This paper investigates the most successful current utility marketing postures, how they are changing, where pricing fits in and what we are likely to see within the next few years. We will also illustrate the potential traps in competitive marketing and customer service that still lie in wait. We still see a major number of current marketing efforts that are unbalanced, unfairly reward luck, are wasteful and counterproductive. As many of you know, we strongly believe marketing must move from technology-based, �silver bullet� competition, frenetic non-competitive load retention dissipation and load claiming to relational-based marketing in which absolute integrity and service and their consequent trust become paramount. We believe utilities must build honest relationships with all their customers, not merely their energy purchasers. These include their fuel suppliers and regulators. When a utility is not trusted, the competitive situation is reduced to that of a commodity supplier in which price and terms constitute the whole of the relationship. Utilities reduced to this level of inadequate customer service ultimately will lose to those that recognize the alternative of adding value. As the nature and consequences of competition increase, so does the importance of breaking from the methods of the past.
Gilbert, J. S.
the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Section 1815 of the Act established a five-member Electric Energy Market Competition Task Force. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005)1 was...
ESS 2012 Peer Review - Wholesale Electricity Market Design Project - Jim Ellison, SNL
Photos placed in Photos placed in horizontal position with even amount of white space between photos and header Photos placed in horizontal position with even amount of white space between photos and header Wholesale Electricity Market Design Project September 28, 2012 Jim Ellison, Verne Loose, Ray Byrne, Cesar Silva Monroy, and Ryan Elliott Sandia National Laboratories Leigh Tesfatsion Iowa State University DOE Energy Storage Program Peer Review 2012 Introduction - Motivation for a New Market Design Need to eliminate market bias of resource classes such as Energy Storage Need to accommodate new technologies, without the need to change market rules Move away from resource-centric markets toward service-centric markets
Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
ANN-based Short-Term Load Forecasting in Electricity Markets Hong Chen Claudio A. Ca~nizares Ajit forecasting technique that considers electricity price as one of the main characteristics of the system load. B. Makram, "A Hybrid Wavelet- Kalman Filter Method for Load Forecasting," Electric Power Systems
New England's Wholesale Electricity Market, Six Years Later
Energy reliability-the ability for an energy system to meet both short-run demand and long-run capacity needs-is a critical input to a region's economic growth potential. This paper reviews the structure of New England's energy markets, focusing on the ...
Carrie Conaway; Philip A. Fedora
MATHEMATICS Price dynamics in political prediction markets
- gate the price dynamics of prediction markets with the goal of developing methods to identify the trulyAPPLIED MATHEMATICS POLITICAL SCIENCES Price dynamics in political prediction markets Saikat Ray City, IA 52242; and d Department Chemical and Biological Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston
Amaral, Luis A.N.
Customer Response to Day-ahead Wholesale Market Electricity Prices...
Buildings Simulation Tools Sustainable Federal Operations Windows and Daylighting Electricity Grid Demand Response Distributed Energy Electricity Reliability Energy Analysis...
Rethinking Real Time Electricity Pricing
Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the .rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly ...
Allcott, Hunt
notice, is given to the source. On the Efficiency of Competitive Electricity Markets With Time-Invariant Retail Prices
The standard economic model of efficient competitive markets relies on the ability of sellers to charge prices that vary as their costs change. Yet, there is no restructured electricity market in which most retail customers can be charged realtime prices (RTP), prices that can change as frequently as wholesale costs. We analyze the impact of having some share of customers on time-invariant pricing in competitive electricity markets. Not only does time-invariant pricing in competitive markets lead to outcomes (prices and investment) that are not first-best, it even fails to achieve the second-best optimum given the constraint of time-invariant pricing. We then show that attempts to correct the level of investment through taxes or subsidies on electricity or capacity are unlikely to succeed, because these interventions create new inefficiencies. In contrast, increasing the share of customers
Severin Borenstein; Stephen P. Holland; We Thank Jim Bushnell; Joe Farrell; Morten Hviid; Erin Mansur; Michael Riordan; Lawrence White; Severin Borenstein; Stephen P. Holl
Effects of Demand Response on Retail and Wholesale Power Markets
Demand response has grown to be a part of the repertoire of resources used by utilities to manage the balance between generation and load. In recent years, advances in communications and control technology have enabled utilities to consider continuously controlling demand response to meet generation, rather than the other way around. This paper discusses the economic applications of a general method for load resource analysis that parallels the approach used to analyze generation resources and uses the method to examine the results of the US Department of Energy�s Olympic Peninsula Demonstration Testbed. A market-based closed-loop system of controllable assets is discussed with necessary and sufficient conditions on system controllability, observability and stability derived.
Chassin, David P.; Kalsi, Karanjit
Demand Response in U.S. Electricity Markets: Empirical Evidence
exposure to high energy market prices but were reticentto real-time when energy market prices rose above a certainprices. Finally, organized wholesale markets and policy support by the Federal Energy
Cappers, Peter
System dynamics, market microstructure and asset pricing
Traditional asset pricing approaches are not able to explain extreme volatility and tail events that characterized financial markets in the past decade. System Dynamics theory, which is still underutilized in financial ...
Leika, Mindaugas
Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications ofPrice-Responsive Demand
Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulatedelectricity industries share one common feature: the absence of anysignificant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, most electricity consumers stillpay an average cost based regulated retail tariff held over from the eraof vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are oftenforced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in openmarkets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who aresometimes additionally forbidden by regulators from signing hedgingcontracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time(or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price ofelectricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumptionaccordingly. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic,which together with the non storability of electricity that requiresmarket clearing over very short time steps spawn many other problemsassociated with electricity markets, such as exercise of market power andprice volatility. Indeed, electricity generation resources can bestretched to the point where system adequacy is threatened. Economictheory suggests that even modest price responsiveness can relieve thestress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To quantify thiseffect, actual generator bid data from the New York control area is usedto construct supply stacks and intersect them with demand curves ofvarious slopes to approximate the effect of different levels of demandresponse. The potential impact of real-time pricing (RTP) on theequilibrium spot price and quantity is then estimated. These resultsindicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a moreprice-responsive demand providing policymakers with a measure of howprices can be potentially reduced and consumption maintained within thecapability of generation assets.
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Bartholomew, Emily S.; Marnay, Chris
Investment Efficiency in Competitive Electricity Markets With and Without Time-Varying Retail Prices
The standard economic model of efficient competitive markets relies on the ability of sellers to charge prices that vary as their costs change. Yet, there is no restructured electricity market in which most retail customers can be charged realtime prices (RTP), prices that can change as frequently as wholesale costs. We analyze the impact of having some share of customers on time-invariant pricing in competitive electricity markets. Not only does time-invariant pricing in competitive markets lead to outcomes (prices and investment) that are not first-best, it even fails to achieve the second-best optimum given the constraint of time-invariant pricing. We then study a number of policy interventions that have been proposed to address the perceived inadequacy of capacity investment. We show that attempts to correct the level of investment through taxes or subsidies on electricity or capacity are unlikely to succeed, because these interventions create new inefficiencies. We demonstrate that the most common proposal, a subsidy to capacity ownership financed by a tax on retail electricity, is particularly problematic. An alternative approach to improving efficiency, increasing the share of customers on RTP, has some surprising effects. We show that such a change lowers the equilibrium price to flat rate customers
Severin Borenstein; Stephen P. Holland
Electricity Price Formation -- Lessons from the Western U.S.: Report Series on Fuel and Power Market Integration
The Western United States is a laboratory for observing the operation of competitive wholesale power markets. Combining a review of the fuel and power infrastructure with observations on market behavior and contractual practices, this report provides evidence of growing interdependence of fuel and power prices. This relationship is expected to strengthen and become more volatile as the fuel and power industries move toward ever higher levels of capacity utilization.
USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Washington, D.C., July 8-10, 2004 Testing the Reliability of FERC's Wholesale Power Market Platform
@iastate.edu Abstract: In April 2003 the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission proposed the Wholesale Power Market the Reliability of FERC's Wholesale Power Market Platform: An Agent-Based Computational Economics Approach Deddy-1070 Corresponding Author: Leigh Tesfatsion, Professor of Economics and Mathematics Address/Contact Information
2011 Brief: Henry Hub natural gas spot prices fell about 9% in ...
Energy Information Administration ... Wholesale spot natural gas prices in most areas of the United States fell slightly in 2011 from the ... In other markets, ...
Center for the Study of Energy Markets Paper CSEMWP-105.OASIS SDO. 2010b. �Energy Market Information Exchange (eMIX)charges. � Wholesale energy market prices are volatile, and
2011 Wind Technologies Market Report
Low Wholesale Electricity Prices Continued to Challenge thefavorably to wholesale electricity prices from 2003 throughsharp drop in wholesale electricity prices (driven by lower
Bolinger, Mark
2009 Wind Technologies Market Report
and lower wholesale electricity prices has taken a toll onreductions in wholesale electricity prices that began insharply lower wholesale electricity prices, merchant/quasi-
Wiser, Ryan
Essays on gasoline price spikes, environmental regulation of gasoline content, and incentives for refinery operation
Since 1999, regional retail and wholesale gasoline markets in the United States have experienced significant price volatility, both intertemporally and across geographic markets. In particular, gasoline prices in California, ...
Muehlegger, Erich J
Bank Security Prices and Market Discipline
In recent years, policymakers and bank regulators have been warming up to the idea of leveraging market forces to enhance banking supervision.This is partly motivated by the growing complexity of large banking organizations and by concerns about limiting the cost of bank supervision as well as avoiding unduly extending the bank safety net (see Kwan 2002). In order for market discipline to work, the market prices of banking securities must contain accurate and timely information about bank risk. Researchers in banking have been studying this issue for quite some time.This Economic Letter reviews the empirical evidence on the informativeness of bank security prices, focusing on the two most obvious sources of market information�stock and
unknown authors
First evidence of asymmetric cost pass-through of Eu emissions allowances : examining wholesale electricity prices in Germany
This paper applies the literature on asymmetric price transmission to the emerging commodity market for EU emissions allowances (EUA). We utilize an error correction model and an autoregressive distributed lag model to ...
Zachmann, Georg
Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models and Futures Markets
Energy futures markets are �hubs� that price and marketenergy price fluctuations. In theory, futures market pricesenergy prices, including most prominently, energy futures markets.
Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex
Reforming TSOs: using the 'third package' Legislation to promote efficiency and accelerate regional integration in EU wholesale power markets
The EU is developing new legislation - the so-called ''Third Package'' - to foster competition in its electric power markets. These proposals could be improved by adding more focus on regional integration of wholesale power markets, allowing more leeway for arrangements that fit the diverse existing patterns of transmission ownership and control, and addressing upfront new regulatory concerns that arise when transmission is divested as an independent, for-profit business. (author)
Moselle, Boaz
Sixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix D: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast
Forecast Introduction................................................................... 16 The Base Case Forecast..................................................................... 16 Base Case Price Forecast
Perturbation Analysis of the Wholesale Energy Market Equilibrium in the Presence of Renewables
One of the main challenges in the emerging smart grid is the integration of renewable energy resources (RER). The latter introduces both intermittency and uncertainty into the grid, both of which can affect the underlying energy market. An interesting concept that is being explored for mitigating the integration cost of RERs is Demand Response. Implemented as a time-varying electricity price in real-time, Demand Response has a direct impact on the underlying energy market as well. Beginning with an overall model of the major market participants together with the constraints of transmission and generation, we analyze the energy market in this paper and derive conditions for global maximum using standard KKT criteria. The effect of uncertainties in the RER on the market equilibrium is then quantified, with and without real-time pricing. Perturbation analysis methods are used to compare the equilibria in the nominal and perturbed markets. These markets are also analyzed using a game-theoretic point of view. Suff...
Kiani, Arman
Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation
� E&P costs � E&P investments � E&P innovations Physical balancing � Inventories Markets & market behavior � Energy prices ? spot ? futures ? options
Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices ...
Overview. As part of its Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, EIA is assessing the various factors that may influence oil prices � physical market factors as ...
Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence
Using Neural Networks to Forecast Stock Market Prices Ramon Lawrence Department of Computer Science on the application of neural networks in forecasting stock market prices. With their ability to discover patterns. Section 3 covers current analytical and computer methods used to forecast stock market prices
Lawrence, Ramon
Index Revision, House Price Risk, and the Market for House Price Derivatives
bias in repeat-sales home price indices. Freddie Mac workingpaper #05�03. Index Revision, House Price Risk, and theMarket for House Price Derivatives Calhoun, C. A. (1996).
Deng, Yongheng; Quigley, John M.
Do OPEC Members Know Something the Market Doesn�t? �Fair Price � Pronouncements and the Market Price of Crude Oil
OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the �fair price � of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the price prevailing in the crude oil market at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with the contemporaneous futures price. A natural question is whether these �fair price � pronouncements contain information not already reflected in market prices. To find the answer, we collect �fair price � statements made between 2000 and 2009 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the �fair price � series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use several methodologies to establish that �fair price � pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and that they supply little or no new news to oil futures market participants.
Celso Brunetti; Bahattin B�y�k?ahin; Michel A. Robe; Kirsten R. Soneson; David Reiffen; Bob Buckley; Rasmus Fatum; Robert L. Losey; Jim Moser; Adam Sieminski; Phil Verlegger; Joe Konizeski
Electricity Market Price Forecasting in a Price-responsive Smart Grid Environment
of this load is to use electricity market price forecasts to op- timally schedule a combination of the gas of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors: A Demand-Side Analysis Hamidreza Zareipour, Member, IEEE, Claudio--Several techniques have been proposed in the liter- ature to forecast electricity market prices and improve forecast
Essays on Price Dynamics
Small Regular Price Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 The Cyclicality of Effective Prices2.3 Wholesale Price vs. Retail
Hong, Gee Hee
2012 Brief: Average wholesale natural gas prices fell 31% in 2012 ...
Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & Efficiency. Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, ...
Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices?
Reports and Publications (EIA)
An assessment of the various factors that may influence oil prices - physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. The analysis describes 7 key factors that could influence oil markets and explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.
Capacity-constrained multiple-market price discrimination
This paper studies a multiple-market price discrimination problem with different markets' demand elasticity and supply constraints, whereas the markets share a common capacity. We model the problem as a continuous nonlinear knapsack problem, and propose ... Keywords: Knapsack problem, Nonlinear programming, Price discrimination
Bin Zhang
Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets
2009. �To What Electricity Price Do Consumers Respond?faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinearrates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic
Ito, Koichiro
Brand and Price Advertising in Online Markets
P. , "Electronic Commerce: Prices and Consumer Issues forFriedman, "Buyer Search and Price Dispersion: A Laboratory808. Chen, J. and P. Scholten, "Price Dispersion, Product
Baye, Michael; Morgan, John
Demand Pricing & Resource Allocation in Market- based ...
... While pricing operates on a comparatively slow ... and tracking the optimal price, admission control ... the time lag in varying and disseminating prices. ...
A uniform price auction with locational price adjustments for competitive electricity markets
A uniform price auction with locational price adjustments for competitive electricity markets in an electricity context requires that the offers used in the auction reflect the appropriate locational price necessary to adapt the Uniform Price auction to an electricity transmission system which takes into account
Dynamic pricing and stabilization of supply and demand in modern electric power grids
The paper proposes a mechanism for real-time pricing of electricity in smart power grids, with price stability as the primary concern. In previous publications the authors argued that relaying the real-time wholesale market ...
Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through
Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.
John Zyren
Price and volatility relationships in the Australian electricity market.
??This thesis presents a collection of papers that has been published, accepted or submitted for publication. They assess price, volatility and market relationships in the� (more)
Higgs, Helen
Analysis of Price Volatility in Natural Gas Markets
This article presents an analysis of price volatility in the spot natural gas market, with particular emphasis on the Henry Hub in Louisiana.
Erin Mastrangelo
Natural Gas Marketer Prices and Sales To Residential and ...
Pennsylvania natural gas choice market. The supplier must furnish a bond or other security in an amount ... natural gas prices were derived solely from LDCs who
An Empirical Study of Pricing Strategies in an Online Market with High Frequency Price Information
We study competition among a score of firms participating in an online market for a commodity-type memory module. Firms were able to adjust prices continuously; prices determined how the firms were ranked and listed (lowest ...
Ellison, Sara Fisher
The Stock Market Reaction to Oil Price Changes
I explore the reaction of the stock market as a whole and of different industries to daily oil price changes. I find that the direction and magnitude of the market?s reaction to oil price changes depend on the magnitude of the price changes. Oil price changes most likely caused by supply shocks have a negative impact while oil price changes most likely caused by shifts in aggregate demand have a positive impact on the same day market returns. In addition to the returns of oil-intensive industries, returns of industries that do not use oil to any significant extent are also sensitive to oil price changes. Finally, I show that both the cost-side dependence and demand-side dependence on oil are important in explaining the sensitivity of industry returns to oil price changes. I am indebted to Louis Ederington. I am grateful for the helpful comments received from Chitru Fernando,
Sridhar Gogineni
Price-elastic demand in deregulated electricity markets
The degree to which any deregulated market functions efficiently often depends on the ability of market agents to respond quickly to fluctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we find that price elasticity both increases the retailers revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite effect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we find that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we find that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.
Siddiqui, Afzal S.
Market Design and Price Behavior in Restructured Electricity Markets: An International Comparison
This paper argues that the market rules governing the operation of a re-structured electricity market in combination with its market structure can have a substantial impact on behavior of marketclearing prices. Using evidence on the design of electricity markets in England and Wales, Norway, the state of Victoria in Australia and New Zealand, this paper illustrates that market structure and market rules are important drivers of the behavior of prices in a competitive electricity market. The paper first summarizes the important features of the market structure and market rules in each country. One conclusion to emerge from this comparison is that there are many differences in how these markets in each country are organized. I then provide an assessment of the relationship between market rules and market structure and the behavior of prices in each market. The paper closes with a discussion of the available evidence that the behavior of prices in each country is the result of the exercis...
Frank A. Wolak
Falling House Prices and Rising Time on the Market
Much of the current trouble in the housing market has been attributed to the fact that house price appreciation�strong for many years�is finally slowing; indeed, in many markets now, house prices are falling.The mere fact that falling house prices are considered newsworthy is interesting in its own right. In other asset markets, such as the stock and bond markets, prices routinely fluctuate up and down every day. In this Economic Letter I argue that the main reason for this difference reflects differences in the liquidity of houses and financial assets as investments. I review the ways in which residential real estate prices and liquidity vary over time and over different states of the economy, discuss the implications of this price and liquidity behavior
The Market Price of Risk: Implications for Electricity Price Forecasting, Asset Valuation and Portfolio Risk Management
Forward Price Forecasting for Power Market Valuation (TR-111860, 1998) presented the basic theory on the market price of risk. However, continued development of the power market has led to additional complexities when applying the concept to electric power. This current report updates that earlier report based on subsequent development of the theory by EPRI and others and reflects two additional years of market data.
Abstract--Load serving entities (LSE) and holders of default service obligations, in restructured electricity markets, provide
, in restructured electricity markets, provide electricity service at regulated or contracted fixed prices while standard forward contracts and commodity derivatives. Keywords: Electricity Markets, Risk Management, Volumetric hedging, I. INTRODUCTION The introduction of competitive wholesale markets in the electricity
The effect of falling market concentration on prices, generator behaviour and productive efficiency in the England and Wales electricity market
A universal prediction of the various oligopoly models used to predict and explain behaviour in the England and Wales (E&W) electricity wholesale market is that divestiture of plants by the two large incumbent generators ...
Empirical analysis of the spot market implications of price-elastic demand
are exposed to real-time electricity prices, then they cansustained increases in the electricity price. Greater pricethe market-clearing electricity price. Indeed, the remaining
Stock market volatility and price discovery : three essays on the effect of macroeconomic information
Simple Microstructure Model of Price Determination . . 3.11Stock Market Volatility and Price Discovery: Three Essays onConstruction Spending PRICES CPI MONETARY POLICY FFR Source:
Rangel, Jose Gonzalo
Electricity markets in the western United States
This article introduces the use of rigorous econometric tools to understand the geographic scope of the market for generation services. These tools are applied to data from the current wholesale electricity market in the western United States. The behavior of the current wholesale electricity market and the methods used to assess the expanse of the geographic market in the current wholesale electricity market can go a long way toward informing the discussion of pricing behavior and performance in a restructured electricity industry. First, the current wholesale electricity market is already effectively unregulated and suffers from the same technical complexities that face a retail electricity market. Consequently, understanding the supply and demand conditions that cause the extent of the geographic market for generation services to narrow in the current wholesale electricity market can shed light on which times the geographic expanse of the market may narrow in a restructures electricity market. Second, the techniques developed in this paper to assess the extent of the current wholesale electricity market can be applied readily to a restructured electricity market. Finally, because market conditions in the electricity industry are likely to change significantly in the next few years, as the structure of the electricity sector changes dramatically, this analysis of the geographic expanse of the market can provide a useful benchmark against which to compare post-restructuring wholesale price relationships.
Bailey, E.M.
Hedging Quantity Risks with Standard Power Options in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity
Hedging Quantity Risks with Standard Power Options in a Competitive Wholesale Electricity Market, GA, 30332-0205 USA March 3, 2005 Abstract This paper addresses quantity risk in the electricity of a load serving entity, which provides electricity service at a regulated price in electricity markets
Properties of energy-price forecasts for scheduling
Wholesale electricity markets are becoming ubiquitous, offering consumers access to competitively-priced energy. The cost of energy is often correlated with its environmental impact; for example, environmentally sustainable forms of energy might benefit ...
Georgiana Ifrim; Barry O'Sullivan; Helmut Simonis
Competition and Prices on the Emerging Nordic Electricity Market
The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the impact on electricity prices of deregulation and free trade in the Nordic countries. The analysis is focused on the impact of increased competition on market power and the degree of monopolistic pricing. The major tool for our analysis of electricity trade and prices is a numerical multicountry electricity market model in which losses and bottlenecks in the transmission system are taken into account. Moreover both Cournot and perfect competition equilibria with and without free trade in electricity can be simulated. According to the simulation results there are significant differences between the Cournot and perfect competition equilibrium prices under autarky. When inter-country trade is allowed, however, the Cournot equilibrium prices are quite close to the equilibrium prices under perfect competition. Yet the net inter-country physical flows of electricity are small and well within existing transmission capacities.
Eirik S. Amundsen; Lars Bergman; Bo Andersson; Jel-classification D
Estimating Welfare In Insurance Markets Using Variation in Prices
We provide a graphical illustration of how standard consumer and producer theory can be used to quantify the welfare loss associated with inefficient pricing in insurance markets with selection. We then show how this welfare ...
Finkelstein, Amy
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office...
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S. Speaker(s): Nancy Wallace Date: June 15, 2011 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar HostPoint...
Financial market imperfections and their asset pricing implications
This thesis consists of two studies on financial market imperfections. The first study (Chapters 2 and 3) investigates illiquidity, which is a reflection of different imperfections, and its pricing implications in the ...
Rayanakorn, Surapap
Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, Administrator May 5, 2011 Energy and Financial Markets Overview: Crude Oil Price Formation EIA's Energy and Financial Markets Initiative 2 Richard Newell, May 5, 2011 * Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency - improved petroleum storage capacity data - other improvements to data quality and coverage * Analysis of energy and financial market dynamics to improve understanding of what drives energy prices - internal analysis and sponsorship of external research * Outreach with other Federal agencies, experts, and the public - expert workshops - public sessions at EIA's energy conferences - solicitation of public comment on EIA's data collections
Fuel and Power Price Volatilities and Convergence
As more energy is traded in competitive markets, the financial performance of generation companies will be increasingly determined by how well they understand and exploit the price behavior of those markets. How volatile are fuel and power prices? How do they correlate with one another? This report addresses these questions in several wholesale electricity and fuel markets and discusses implications of changing patterns of price behavior to fuel and asset management.
on their summer electricity bills if they could reduce theira fixed credit on electricity bills. The rationale behindaverage price of their electricity bills, the fixed credit
of the Southern California Edison Company. Glendale Calif. :Southern California Edison (SCE) and San Diego Gas &using Southern California Edison�s price schedule in 2007.
Noise Traders, Market Sentiment, and Futures Price Behavior by
The noise trader sentiment model of De Long, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann (1990a) is applied to futures markets. The theoretical results predict that overly optimistic (pessimistic) noise traders result in market prices that are greater (less) than fundamental value. Thus, returns can be predicted using the level of noise trader sentiment. The null rational expectations hypothesis is tested against the noise trader alternative using a commercial market sentiment index as a proxy for noise trader sentiment. Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions test if noise traders create a systematic bias in futures prices. The time-series predictability of futures returns using known sentiment levels is tested in a Cumby-Modest market timing framework and a more general causality specification. The empirical results lead to the following conclusions. First, there is no evidence that noise trader sentiment creates a systematic bias in futures prices. Second, predictable market returns using noise trader sentiment is not characteristic of futures markets in general. Third, futures market returns at weekly intervals are characterized by low-order positive autocorrelation with relatively small autoregressive parameters. In those instances where there is evidence of noise trader effects, it is at best limited to isolated markets and particular specifications. Noise Traders, Market Sentiment, and Futures Price Behavior
Dwight R. S; Scott H. Irwin; Raymond M. Leuthold; Dwight R. S; Ers Is Manager
energy price fluctuations. In theory, futures market prices summarize privately available informationEnergy; Brookhaven National Laboratory Canadian Energy Research Institute U.S. Energy Information Administration Energy Marketsinformation about future energy prices, including most prominently, energy futures markets.
Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futures Market andSTEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futures Market andforecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy
Energy & Financial Markets: What Drives Crude Oil Prices? - Energy
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Indexed Site
& Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) & Financial Markets - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis Sources & Uses Petroleum & Other Liquids Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas Exploration and reserves, storage, imports and exports, production, prices, sales. Electricity Sales, revenue and prices, power plants, fuel use, stocks, generation, trade, demand & emissions. Consumption & Efficiency Energy use in homes, commercial buildings, manufacturing, and transportation. Coal Reserves, production, prices, employ- ment and productivity, distribution, stocks, imports and exports. Renewable & Alternative Fuels
Structural Estimation of Price Adjustment Costs in the European Car Market
Sys- tem: the European Car Market�. C.E.P.R. DiscussionPrice Dispersion in the European Car Market�. The Review ofPrice: Evidence from the European Car Market�. Journal of
Noton, Carlos
Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1998 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...
Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 2001 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...
Information AdministrationPetroleum Marketing Annual 1999 Table 31. Motor Gasoline Prices by Grade, Sales Type, PAD District, and State (Cents per Gallon Excluding Taxes) -...
Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance
In practice, it is difficult to determine the optimal amount to spend on marketing and administering a green pricing program. Budgets for marketing and administration of green pricing programs are a function of several factors: the region of the country; the size of the utility service area; the customer base and media markets encompassed within that service area; the point or stage in the lifespan of the program; and certainly, not least, the utility's commitment to and goals for the program. All of these factors vary significantly among programs. This report presents data on programs that have funded both marketing and program administration. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gathers the data annually from utility green pricing program managers. Programs reporting data to NREL spent a median of 18.8% of program revenues on marketing their programs in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. The smallest utilities (those with less than 25,000 in their eligible customer base) spent 49% of revenues on marketing, significantly more than the overall median. This report addresses the role of renewable energy credit (REC) marketers and start-up costs--and the role of marketing, generally, in achieving program objectives, including expansion of renewable energy.
Friedman, B.; Miller, M.
Price and Load Forecasting in Volatile Energy Markets
With daily news stories about wildly fluctuating electricity prices and soaring natural gas prices, forecasters' responsibilities are expanding, visibility is increasing, and pressure exists to produce more frequent forecasts and more kinds of forecasts. The proceedings of EPRI's 13th Forecasting Symposium, held November 13-15 in Nashville, Tennessee, address current forecasting issues and developments, as well as explain the role that forecasters have played in recent events in energy markets.
Different Factors Impact Different Aspects of Gasoline Price
1 1 Notes: In order to illustrate and quantify, to a large extent, the various market forces driving gasoline prices, we begin by decomposing those factors according to their location within the supply chain, i.e., the international crude market, U.S. wholesale gasoline markets, and the retail segment. Historically, variation in gasoline prices usually stems from changes in crude oil prices. As the major feedstock in the production of gasoline, shifts in the balance between supply and demand in crude markets explain a large portion of observed movements at the retail level. But shifts in the wholesale gasoline supply/demand balance also contribute to price pressure or movements at both the wholesale and retail levels beyond that stemming from crude oil markets.
Price controls and international petroleum product prices
The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.
Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.
existing TOU tariff and a peak energy charge ( $1.20/kWh) isWholesale Energy Market Prices PG&E�s PDP Tariff PG&E�s TOU
Price Changes in the Gasoline Market - U.S. Energy Information ...
DOE/EIA-0626 February 1999 Price Changes in the Gasoline Market Are Midwestern Gasoline Prices Downward Sticky? Energy Information Administration Washington, DC 20585
Price distortions in the commodity futures markets
Speculation is not monolithic; it comes in many forms. A certain level of speculation is required for commodity futures markets to function. On the other hand, certain types of trading activities by speculators may damage ...
Helfrich, Devin B
The robustness of agent-based models of electricity wholesale markets
= cQ, for which the solution is pc = Ac (1 + c) ; qc = A n(1 + c) : (3) In the constant marginal cost case, c = 0, pc = 0 but otherwise if c > 0 the average cost is half the price pc (both relative to the price level normalization, a). 2.2 Oligopoly... ; qi #0; X j 6=i qj)qi #0; 1 2 cnq2i : 5 The ?rst order condition (f.o.c.) satis?es qi = (A#0; P j 6=i qj) (2 + cn) : The symmetric oligopoly solution is po = A( 1n + c) ( 1n + 1 + c) > pc; qo = A n( 1n + 1 + c) < qc: (4) To illustrate, if c = 1, n = 2...
Newberry, David
Examination of the rationality of real estate market pricing : focusing on the US office property market
This study examines whether or not investors behave rationally when they price the U.S. office properties. After reviewing several previous studies on the market efficiency, this paper makes three new attempts: first, we ...
Jeong, Jinbae
Modeling of GE Appliances: Cost Benefit Study of Smart Appliances in Wholesale Energy, Frequency Regulation, and Spinning Reserve Markets
This report is the second in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE�s DR-enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report described the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The third report will explore the technical capability of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation. In this report, a series of analytical methods were presented to estimate the potential cost benefit of smart appliances while utilizing demand response. Previous work estimated the potential technical benefit (i.e., peak reduction) of smart appliances, while this report focuses on the monetary value of that participation. The effects on wholesale energy cost and possible additional revenue available by participating in frequency regulation and spinning reserve markets were explored.
Fuller, Jason C.; Parker, Graham B.
Customer Load Participation in Wholesale Markets: Summer 2001 Results, Lessons Learned
, California 94720 Environmental Energy Technologies Division February 2002 Download from http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP/ This work was supported by the Assistant Secretary of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office Power Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Introduction The restructuring of the U.S. electricity markets has
wholesale power - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government ... wholesale electric markets operated during Hurricane Sandy.
The Impact of Market Rules and Market Structure on the Price Determination Process in the England and Wales Electricity Market
This paper argues that the market rules governing the operation of the England and Wales electricity market in combination with the structure of this market presents the two major generators---National Power and PowerGen---with opportunities to earn revenues substantially in excess of their costs of production for short periods of time. Generators competing to serve this market have two strategic weapons at their disposal: (1) the price bid for each generation set and (2) the capacity of each generation set made available to supply the market each half-hour period during the day. We argue that because of the rules governing the price determination process in this market, by the strategic use of capacity availability declarations, when conditions exogenous to the behavior of the two major generators favor it, these two generators are able to obtain prices for their output substantially in excess of their marginal costs of generation. The paper establishes these points in the following manner. First, we provide a description of the market structure and rules governing the operation of the England and Wales electricity market, emphasizing those aspects that are important to the success of the strategy we believe the two generators use to exercise market power. We then summarize the time series properties of the price of electricity emerging from this market structure and price-setting process. By analyzing four fiscal years of actual market prices, quantities and generator bids into the market, we provide various pieces of evidence in favor of the strategic use of the market rules by the two major participants. The paper closes with a discussion of the lessons that the England and Wales experience can provide for the design of competitive power markets in the US, particula...
Frank A. Wolak; Robert H. Patrick
Search EIA.gov. A-Z Index; A-Z Index A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W XYZ. Energy & Financial Markets What Drives Crude Oil Prices? ...
When prices are set properly, they serve as important signals to guide customers to consume the efficient quantity of a good. However, in electricity markets many consumers do not pay prices that reflect the scarcity of power. The true social cost of power varies throughout a typical day; power is usually low cost during off-peak periods in the night but it is high cost during a hot July afternoon. Economists have argued for several decades that consumers should pay a price that varies with the true social cost of power. However, the vast majority of consumers pay a fixed price whether they use power at midnight or noon. This can create a host of economic inefficiencies. Fortunately, this is beginning to change. In many states, including Texas, large commercial and industrial users of electricity pay prices that reflect the social cost of power at the time of consumption. This pricing mechanism is called �real-time pricing� (RTP) in electricity markets. I have access to a unique, new dataset of virtually all 8000 commercial and industrial users in Texas that includes information on both whether they pay real-time prices and their hourly consumption for one year. First, I econometrically iv estimate the types of commercial and industrial firms that are likely to �sign up� for time-varying prices. Second, I test whether the customers on real-time prices reduce demand substantially in response to higher prices. I find that customers with greater total hourly consumption are more likely to be on real-time pricing. Customers with more �peaky? load profiles are less likely to be on real-time pricing. Customers in south and west Texas have a greater probability of being on RTP than customers in Houston. I also study whether customers on RTP decrease consumption on hot summer days when electricity is scare. These results have important implications for the design of both deregulated electricity markets and policies that seek to increase the amount of electricity generated with renewable sources of energy.
Fontana, Michelle
Gasoline Price Pass-through
Gasoline Price Pass-through Gasoline Price Pass-through January 2003 by Michael Burdette and John Zyren* The single most visible energy statistic to American consumers is the retail price of gasoline. While the average consumer probably has a general notion that gasoline prices are related to those for crude oil, he or she likely has little idea that gasoline, like most other goods, is priced at many different levels in the marketing chain, and that changes ripple through the system as prices rise and fall. When substantial price changes occur, especially upward, there are often allegations of impropriety, even price gouging, on the part of petroleum refiners and/or marketers. In order to understand the movement of gasoline prices over time, it is necessary to examine the relationship between prices at retail and various wholesale levels.
Contrasts in restructuring wholesale electric markets: England/Wales, California, and the PJM
The ways in which the British, the Californians, and the members of the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Pool (PJM) are restructuring their electric industries and designing markets provide fascinating political and technical contrasts with each other, particularly insofar as all three markets are roughly the same size, with energy sales of about 250--300 terawatt hours (TWh) annually. There have been significant differences in the drivers of change, objectives, and leadership, the legacies of the past, and the process of design, which are discussed in the first three sections. The fourth section describes the market designs in England and Wales, California, and the PJM, while the concluding section draws out the lessons of experience. While these lessons include specific principles regarding the objectives and structure of power exchanges, the maintenance of system stability and power transport, and the achieving of generation reliability, they also include several overarching conclusions. Perhaps chief among them, as will be clear from the discussion of the restructuring experience on both sides of the Atlantic, is that major restructurings can only be led by a public authority and will be successful in implementation only if that authority has a clear and realistic vision of where it wants to go.
Henney, A.
Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response Market Potential: Integrating Price and Customer Behavior
and 2006) ISO-NE Real-Time Price Response (RTPR) ProgramResponse to Real Time Electricity Prices�, December,real-time energy market) Short-notice emergency program Price-
Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan, Bernie; Cappers, Peter
Retail Price Changes Lag Spot Prices
1 1 Notes: While EIA cannot claim to explain all of the factors that drive retail gasoline prices, we have had a fair amount of success in exploring the relationship between wholesale and retail prices. In particular, we have looked closely at the "pass-through" of changes in spot prices to the retail market. This graph shows a weighted national average of spot prices for regular gasoline -both conventional and reformulated (shown in red), and EIA's weekly survey price for retail regular (again both conventional and reformulated). As you can see, spot prices tend to be more volatile (and would be even more so on a daily basis), while these changes are smoother by the time they reach the retail pump. Furthermore, by looking at the peaks, you can see the retail prices seem to lag the spot price changes
Electricity Market Price Forecasting: Neural Networks versus Weighted-Distance Nearest Neighbours
In today's deregulated markets, forecasting energy prices is becoming more and more important. In the short term, expected price pro les help market participants to determine their bidding strategies.
A. Troncoso; J.M. Riquelme; Alicia Troncoso Lora; J.L. Mart�nez; A. G�mez; Jose Riquelme Santos; Jesus Riquelme Santos
Data driven medium term electricity price forecasting in ontario electricity market and Nord Pool.
??Having accurate predictions on market price variations in the future is of great importance to participants in today�s electricity market. Many studies have been done� (more)
Torbaghan, Shahab Shariat
Impact of Changing Fuel and Power Market Structures on Price Behavior
Managing electricity and fuel price risks is a daily task in today's competitive markets. It is tempting to try to extract insights from past price behavior. This report analyzes short-term price relationships for electricity and natural gas (for example, price volatilities and correlations) but goes farther, examining overarching price regimes that provide context for observed prices and required risk management. Spanning electricity, natural gas, oil, coal, and emission allowances markets, the interpre...
Hedonic study on mobile telephony market in France: pricing---quality strategies
This paper provides a hedonic price analysis of mobile telephony services for the French market. We adopt the hedonic price theory to examine the relationship between changes in price levels and the evolution of the market for mobile telecommunications ... Keywords: Hedonic indexes, Mobile telephony, Pricing, Quality-adjustment
Chiraz Karamti; Lukasz Grzybowski
Market power analysis in the EEX electricity market : an agent-based simulation approach.
In this paper, an agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) approach is used to model the German wholesale electricity market. The spot market prices in the European Energy Exchange (EEX) are studied as the wholesale market prices. Each participant in the market is modeled as an individual rationality-bounded agent whose objective is to maximize its own profit. By simulating the market clearing process, the interaction among agents is captured. The market clearing price formed by agentspsila production cost bidding is regarded as the reference marginal cost. The gap between the marginal cost and the real market price is measured as an indicator of possible market power exertion. Various bidding strategies such as physical withholding and economic withholding can be simulated to represent strategic bidding behaviors of the market participants. The preliminary simulation results show that some generation companies (GenCos) are in the position of exerting market power by strategic bidding.
Wang, J.; Botterud, A.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Decision and Information Sciences
Edison/Rates and Tariffs /Schedule for Electricity Service,Edison/Rates and Tariffs /Schedule for Electricity Service,
A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior In California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000
in Northern California, gas-fired steam and peaking turbines, and cogenerators and other generation sources that are ?Qualifying Facilities? (QFs) under the Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act of 1978 (PURPA). About half of in-state generating capacity... to as ?de-rating? the nominal capacity of units to a ?firm? capacity level. The forced outage rates for the gas plants are in the 6% to 13% range.21 Wind turbine generators present a special problem. The CAISO applies an 80% unavailability factor...
Joskow, Paul; Kahn, Edward
charges to avoid high electricity bills. Demand Responseaffect customers' electricity bills negatively. Therefore,charges to avoid high electricity bills Under ConEd's SC-9
Effects of Price-Responsive Residential Demand on Retail and Wholesale Power Market Operations
. References [1] Smart Grid, United States Department of Energy [Web site], http://www.oe.energy.gov/smartgrid
The UK Electricity Markets: Its Evolution, Wholesale Prices and Challenge of Wind Energy.
??This thesis addresses the problems associated with security of the electricity supply in the UK. The British electricity supply industry has experienced a significant structural� (more)
Cui, Cathy Xin
105. ConEd. 2012a. "Con Edison/Rates and Tariffs /ScheduleConEd. 2012c. "Con Edison/Rates and Tariffs /Schedule forprepared for Consolidated Edison Company of New York.
months when buildings' electricity demand is also high dueoptimize buildings' electricity demand according to hourlymonths when buildings' electricity demand is also high due
Demand responsive programs - an emerging resource for competitive electricity markets?
difference between Strike Price & forecast wholesale priceon day-ahead forecast of demand & price Wholesale utilitiesday-of forecast, or actual hourly spot price. A quick
Heffner, Dr. Grayson C.; Goldman, Charles A.
Feasibility of Wholesale Electricity Competition in a Developing Country: Insights from Simulating a Market in Maharashtra State, India
the domestic natural gas and international oil prices.with the international oil price is 75%. GAIL also sets aat the price cap due to high oil prices. GAIL has recently
Phadke, Amol
the Year 2007-08 Coal Prices Coal India Ltd. , a government-Domestic Natural Gas Prices Coal prices for coal power gradeand international coal prices and also based on a formula
Analysis on various pricing scenarios in a deregulated electricity market
The electricity pricing structure in Texas has changed after deregulation (January 2002). The Energy Systems Laboratory has served as a technical consultant on electricity purchases to several universities in the Texas A&M University System since 2001. In the fiscal year of 2006 Stephen F. Austin State University joined with the TAMU campuses and agencies, and there are now 183 accounts in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) North, Northeast, South, West, and Houston areas of Texas. From the 183 accounts, 9 Interval Data Recorder (IDR) accounts consume 92% of the total load. The objective of this research is to find the most economic price structure to purchase electricity for the Texas A&M System and Stephen F. Austin University by analyzing various pricing scenarios: the spot market, forward contracts, take or pay contracts and on/off season (tiered) contracts. The analysis was based on the 9 IDR accounts. The prices for the spot market were given by ERCOT and the other prices by Sempra. The energy charges were calculated every 15 minute using the real historical consumption of each facility and the aggregated load of all facilities. The result for the analysis was given for each institution separately, as well as for the aggregated load of all facilities. The results of the analysis showed that the tiered price was the most economical structure to purchase electricity for each individual university and for the total aggregated load of all 9 IDR accounts. From March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, purchasing electricity on the tiered price would have cost $13,810,560. The forward contract, that is, purchasing electricity on a fixed rate, was the next cheapest with an energy cost of $14,266,870 from March 1, 2005 to February 28, 2006, 3% higher than purchasing electricity at the tiered price. The most expensive method to purchase electricity would have been the spot market. Its energy costs would have been approximately $18,171,610, 36% and 31% higher, respectively, than purchasing electricity at the tiered price and the fixed rate.
Afanador Delgado, Catalina
Utility Marketing Strategies and Pricing Trends (An Overview)
"Industries and utilities alike find themselves today in a very competitive environment. Industry finds that it must defend against threats to its markets from both domestic and foreign competitors. Likewise, utilities are challenged by industry and by neighboring utility companies to achieve new levels in customer service, reliability, and pricing. The two, industry and utility, are not antagonists, but are actually partners in the same venture--the industrial customer's costs are oftentimes tied closely to the price of electric power, and the utility's economic health depends upon the continued success of its customers. To work, a utility's marketing strategy and pricing arrangements must form a cohesive whole. Electric 'power rates must be able to recover a utility's costs and provide a sound fiscal footing for the utility, and yet still be attractive to industry and encourage the economic development of the region. However, lower rates are simply not the only answer in a sound marketing strategy. Rather than merely developing plans in accordance with the lowest feasible rates, it is reasonable for the utility to promote electrical efficiency and industrial productivity to ensure that electricity becomes a decreasing economic burden on industry. The utility and its industrial customers must work together as partners for the success of any marketing strategy. In this way, new arrangements may evolve which pave the way for industrial growth. I chair this tutorial having firsthand experience of the value to a utility of fostering trusting relationships with the industrial customers it serves. Through such relationships, TVA has been able to learn at an early date the needs of the customers it serves, and to do what it can as a utility to meet those needs. This tutorial panel consists of national experts from industry, utility, and consulting firms, each having direct experience in the important area of utility marketing, pricing, and customer relations. "
Reynolds, S.
Transmission access and pricing with multiple separate energy forward markets
California`s congestion management protocols provide comparable access and prices to all users of the transmission system (power exchange and bilateral contract parties). The users implicitly bid for capacity on major transmission paths between zones. The Independent System Operator (ISO) allocates the available transmission capacity on these paths so that it maximizes the value of this capacity as measured by the users` bids. Everyone scheduling flow on a congested path is charged the marginal-cost-based price for using the path. The ISO keeps each party`s portfolio of generation and load individually in balance when adjusting schedules to relieve congestion on interzonal paths. By keeping the portfolios of the different parties separate, the ISO clears its transmission market without arranging energy trades between parties. Parties are responsible for arranging their own trades. The ISO does not become involved in the energy forward markets.
Gribik, P.R. [Perot Systems Corp., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Angelidis, G.A. [Pacific Gas and Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States); Kovacs, R.R. [Southern California Edison, Rosemead, CA (United States)
449 449 September 2009 Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance Barry Friedman and Mackay Miller National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393 303-275-3000 * www.nrel.gov NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC Contract No. DE-AC36-08-GO28308 Technical Report NREL/TP-6A2-46449 September 2009 Green Pricing Program Marketing Expenditures: Finding the Right Balance Barry Friedman and Mackay Miller Prepared under Task No. SAO9.3003 NOTICE This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any
Factors Impacting Gasoline Prices and Areas for Further Study
Factors Impacting Gasoline Prices and Areas for Further Study Factors Impacting Gasoline Prices and Areas for Further Study 8/10/01 Click here to start Table of Contents Factors Impacting Gasoline Prices and Areas for Further Study Different Factors Impact Different Aspects of Gasoline Price Correlation of Price to Inventory Levels Crude Prices Strongly Related to OECD.Crude & Product Inventories Gasoline Prices Also Influenced by Regional Gasoline Product Markets Tight Product Balance Pushes Up Product Spread (Spot Product - Crude Price) Retail Price Changes Lag Spot Prices Cumulative Gasoline Price Pass-through Illustration of How Lag Effect Dampens and Slows Retail Price Changes from Wholesale Recent Weekly Retail Price Changes Have Been as Expected Summary: Most Gasoline Price Movement Can Be Explained As Rational Market Behavior Author: Joanne Shore
Market Offering Strategies for Hydroelectric Generators
This paper considers the problem of offering electricity produced by a series of hydroelectric reservoirs to a pool-type central market. The market model is a simplified version of the New Zealand wholesale electricity market, with prices modelled by ... Keywords: Dynamic programming: finite state, markov, Natural resources: energy, water resources, Probability: markov processes
G. Pritchard; G. Zakeri
Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets
This paper analyzes the interactions between competitive (wholesale) spot, retail, and forward markets and vertical integration in electricity markets. We develop an equilibrium model with producers, retailers, and traders to study and quantify the impact ... Keywords: asset pricing, corporate finance, electric--electronic, financial institutions, industries, markets
Ren� A�d; Gilles Chemla; Arnaud Porchet; Nizar Touzi
OASIS SDO. 2010b. �Energy Market Information Exchange (eMIX)11 Wholesale Electricity Market InformationWholesale Electricity Market Information Systems Several
Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations
We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: Gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution for a market with agents having random saving propensity.
Chatterjee, A; Chakrabarti, Bikas K.; Chatterjee, Arnab
CSEM WP 105 Dynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering and
. As the feed-in tariff is higher than the average electricity price on the wholesale market, the system of the overall cost of green electricity production sought by the government. Guaranteed feed-in tariffs offer environment (feed-in tariffs as price based system on one hand, quotas + green certificates, competitive
California at Berkeley. University of
Document Number 2000-18, October, 2000 1 Study of Western Power Market Prices
Power Pool - US Systems for June 28, the peak price day of June, indicates a peak net hourly load levels. Prices in the spot market at Henry Hub in Louisiana have been over $5 recently and are expectedDocument Number 2000-18, October, 2000 1 Study of Western Power Market Prices Summer 2000 Final
Analyzing Multiple-Product Power Markets: Simulation of Energy and Ancillary Services Prices and System Adequacy
The interpretation of price signals is a primary business task of power market participants, made more challenging by the shift from cost-based to bid-based pricing. This report outlines a novel pricing framework that accounts for the behavior and interaction of forward and real-time energy markets and the ancillary services required to maintain system reliability.
Social Welfare implications of demand response programs in competitive electricity markets
The price volatility exhibited by wholesale electricity markets has stymied the movement to restructure the industry, and may derail it altogether. Market designers argue that prices are superior to regulation for directing long-term investments to the proper location and function, and that price volatility is a natural manifestation of a robustly competitive market. However, episodes of prices that soar to previously unimaginable heights try customers' patience and cause policy makers to reconsider if the prize is worth the consequences.
Boisvert, Richard N.; Neenan, Bernard F.
Support vector regression with chaos-based firefly algorithm for stock market price forecasting
Due to the inherent non-linearity and non-stationary characteristics of financial stock market price time series, conventional modeling techniques such as the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) are not adequate for stock market ... Keywords: Chaotic mapping, Firefly algorithm, Stock market price forecasting, Support vector regression
Ahmad Kazem; Ebrahim Sharifi; Farookh Khadeer Hussain; Morteza Saberi; Omar Khadeer Hussain
St[r]ategic offers in an oligopolistic electricity market under pay-as-bid pricing.
??Marginal pricing is the traditional pricing method in pool based electricity markets, however pay-as-bid is an alternative that has been the focus of recent studies.� (more)
Ganjbakhsh, Omid.
A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices
This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the variables influencing the price and volatility of this energy ...
Fazzio, Thomas J. (Thomas Joseph)
is unable to reduce electricity prices. The unstorability ofhourly variability in electricity prices while maintainingboth forward and spot electricity prices a ect demand. Our
Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market
Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes? � QuarterlyGas Wars: Retail Gasoline Price Fluctua- tions�, Review of7] Eckert, A. �Retail Price Cycles and Response Asymmetry�,
Ethanol and Its Effect on the U.S. Corn Market: How the Price of E-85 Influences Equilibrium Corn Prices and Equilibrium Quantity.
??This study analyzes the impact the market price of E-85 has on equilibrium price and quantity exchanged of corn in the U.S. market. After presenting� (more)
Stochastic models of electricity prices and risk premia in the PJM market.
??With a main focus on risk premia in a US electricity market, we propose three stochastic models for electricity spot prices. Based on the proposed� (more)
Xiao, Yuewen
Price discovery and information diffusion in the Perth housing market 1988-2000.
??[Truncated abstract] This thesis examines informational efficiency and price discovery processes within the Perth housing market for the period 1988-2000 by utilising a rich source� (more)
Costello, Greg
Relationship Between Wind Generation and Balancing Energy Market Prices in ERCOT: 2007-2009
DOE Green Energy (OSTI)
This paper attempts to measure the average marginal effects of wind generation on the balancing-energy market price in ERCOT with the help of econometric analysis.
Nicholson, E.; Rogers, J.; Porter, K.
A statistical analysis of the natural gas futures market : the interplay of sentiment, volatility and prices.
??This paper attempts to understand the price dynamics of the North American natural gas market through a statistical survey that includes an analysis of the� (more)
Price movements in the Japanese online home electronics market
This article investigates the price movements of home electronics products listed on a Japanese price comparison site. Our findings are as follows. (1) Price dispersion increases at earlier stages of the product life cycle and decreases at later stages. ... Keywords: Asymmetric pricing, Comparison sites, D4, D8, Economics, Empirical research, Internet, L13, Law of one price, M3, Price dispersion
Tomonari Akimoto; Fumiko Takeda
Price Discovery in the Natural Gas Markets of the United States and Canada
The dynamics of the U.S. and Canada natural gas spot markets are evolving through deregulation policies and technological advances. Economic theory suggests that these markets will be integrated. The key question is the extent of integration among the markets. This thesis characterizes the degree of dynamic integration among 11 major natural gas markets, six from the U.S. and five from Canada, and determines each individual markets� role in price discovery. This is the first study to include numerous Canadian markets in a North American natural gas market study. Causal flows modeling using directed acyclic graphs in conjunction with time series analysis are used to explain the relationships among the markets. Daily gas price data from 1994 to 2009 are used. The 11 natural gas market prices are tied together with nine long-run co-integrating relationships. All markets are included in the co-integration space, providing evidence the markets are integrated. Results show the degree of integration varies by region. Further results indicate no clear price leader exists among the 11 markets. Dawn market is exogenous in contemporaneous time, while Sumas market is an information sink. Henry Hub plays a significant role in the price discovery of markets in the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, but little to markets in the west. The uncertainty of a markets� price depends primarily on markets located in nearby regions. Policy makers may use information on market integration for important policy matters in efforts of attaining efficiency. Gas traders benefit from knowing the price discovery relationships.
Olsen, Kyle
Market structure and the price of electricity: An ex ante analysis of the deregulated Swedish electricity market
Following new legislation the Swedish electricity market is about to be deregulated. The new system is designed to ensure competition in production and supply. The main motive for deregulation is to increase competition and thus achieve lower market prices. A possible threat to this outcome is the high degree of concentration on the seller side that characterizes the Swedish electricity market. In this paper we show that given the current structure of firms on the supply side, deregulation is not a sufficient condition for lower equilibrium prices in the electricity market. We use a numerical model to explore the quantitative relation between the Cournot-equilibrium price, the number of firms, and the size distribution of firms in the Swedish electricity market. We compute equilibrium electricity prices and a welfare measure in order to quantify the effect of asymmetric market concentration on competition. 3 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.
Andersson, B.; Bergman, L. [Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden)
HOUSES!an independent view of the property market Prices and Affordability Lending Activity Supply The Economy
term trends for house prices and asks where prices will go from here. I would like to say Halifax price Nationwide price Chart 1: Halifax and Nationwide House Price Trends SourcesHOUSES!an independent view of the property market Prices and Affordability Lending Activity Supply
Evans, Paul
Profitable Business Strategies for Wholesale Energy Providers: A Guidebook
EPRI has launched research into profitable business strategies for energy wholesalers to gain insight into the markets where they operate and provide guidance on pursuing potential new business strategies. The study revealed that wholesalers tend to fall within two categories, traditional wholesalers and those following competitive business models. Primary and secondary research reveals that most traditional wholesalers are taking a "wait and see" approach to deregulation and focusing most business effor...
Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b
), the simulation day, and the linear trend of selling prices from the previous ten days. For predicting future prices, we used the same set of features with the addition of the estimated customer demand trend (s). 4Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game q Christopher Kiekintveld a,*, Jason Miller b
Wellman, Michael P.
OIL PRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:firstname.lastname@example.com hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oil price impact Khaled Guesmi3 Abstract The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Price supports and demand in commodity market modeling
Gerdner, B. L. "Futures Prices in Supply Analysis." Amer. J.Service. Spot and Futures Prices." Limited Dcpenden{avec Leuthold, R. ~1. "The Price Performance on the Futures
Riboud, Chris; Rausser, Gordon C.
Competition and price discrimination in the market for mailing lists
Katz, M. L. (1984). Price discrimination and monopolistic395�416. Shepard, A. (1991). Price discrimination and retailJ. (1952). The theory of price. New York: Macmillan. Stole,
Borzekowski, Ron; Thomadsen, Raphael; Taragin, Charles
Dynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering, and Demand Response in Electricity Markets
as Large Comm. Interval metering system with monthly dataDynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering and Demand Response inE Dynamic Pricing, Advanced Metering, and Demand Response in
Borenstein, Severin; Jaske, Michael; Rosenfeld, Arthur
Central Appalachian (CAPP) coal spot prices affect markets for ...
Note: Bloomberg prices for the prompt month have been shifted forward by one month to show the spot versus delivered price for the same month.
Using Forward Markets to Improve Electricity Market Design
Forward markets, both medium term and long term, complement the spot market for wholesale electricity. The forward markets reduce risk, mitigate market power, and coordinate new investment. In the medium term, a forward energy market lets suppliers and demanders lock in energy prices and quantities for one to three years. In the long term, a forward reliability market assures adequate resources are available when they are needed most. The forward markets reduce risk for both sides of the market, since they reduce the quantity of energy that trades at the more volatile spot price. Spot market power is mitigated by putting suppliers and demanders in a more balanced position at the time of the spot market. The markets also reduce transaction costs and improve liquidity and transparency. Recent innovations to the Colombia market illustrate the basic elements of the forward markets and their beneficial role. 1
Lawrence M. Ausubel; Peter Cramton
Uncertainties in the Value of Bill Savings from Behind-the-Meter, Residential Photovoltaic Systems: The Roles of Electricity Market Conditions, Retail Rate Design, and Net Metering
varying retail electricity prices: Theory and practice.GENERATION ON WHOLESALE ELECTRICITY PRICES IN CALIFORNIA:4.4.1 Lower wholesale electricity price cap and volumetric
Darghouth, Naim Richard
Essays on price dynamics, discovery, and dynamic threshold effects among energy spot markets in North America
Given the role electricity and natural gas sectors play in the North American economy, an understanding of how markets for these commodities interact is important. This dissertation independently characterizes the price dynamics of major electricity and natural gas spot markets in North America by combining directed acyclic graphs with time series analyses. Furthermore, the dissertation explores a generalization of price difference bands associated with the law of one price. Interdependencies among 11 major electricity spot markets are examined in Chapter II using a vector autoregression model. Results suggest that the relationships between the markets vary by time. Western markets are separated from the eastern markets and the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas. At longer time horizons these separations disappear. Palo Verde is the important spot market in the west for price discovery. Southwest Power Pool is the dominant market in Eastern Interconnected System for price discovery. Interdependencies among eight major natural gas spot markets are investigated using a vector error correction model and the Greedy Equivalence Search Algorithm in Chapter III. Findings suggest that the eight price series are tied together through sixlong-run cointegration relationships, supporting the argument that the natural gas market has developed into a single integrated market in North America since deregulation. Results indicate that price discovery tends to occur in the excess consuming regions and move to the excess producing regions. Across North America, the U.S. Midwest region, represented by the Chicago spot market, is the most important for price discovery. The Ellisburg-Leidy Hub in Pennsylvania and Malin Hub in Oregon are important for eastern and western markets. In Chapter IV, a threshold vector error correction model is applied to the natural gas markets to examine nonlinearities in adjustments to the law of one price. Results show that there are nonlinear adjustments to the law of one price in seven pair-wise markets. Four alternative cases for the law of one price are presented as a theoretical background. A methodology is developed for finding a threshold cointegration model that accounts for seasonality in the threshold levels. Results indicate that dynamic threshold effects vary depending on geographical location and whether the markets are excess producing or excess consuming markets.
Park, Haesun
How many people actually see the price signal? Quantifying market failures in the end use of energy
the tenant. If energy prices rise (from market fluctuationsenergy consumption that is �affected� by a market failure and �insulated� from pricemarket barriers, principal agent problem, energy efficiency, investment, behaviour, energy price,
Meier, Alan; Eide, Anita
Computing the Electricity Market Equilibrium: Uses of market equilibrium models
]. On the demand side, considerable demand is simply not exposed to wholesale price variation, which greatly complicates the spec- ification of a demand model. Furthermore, the specification of electricity markets Engineer- ing, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA (email: baldick
Baldick, Ross
Linear Clearing Prices in Non-Convex European Day-Ahead Electricity Markets
The European power grid can be divided into several market areas where the price of electricity is determined in a day-ahead auction. Market participants can provide continuous hourly bid curves and combinatorial bids with associated quantities given the prices. The goal of our auction is to maximize the economic surplus of all participants subject to transmission constraints and the existence of linear prices. In general strict linear prices do not exist in non-convex markets. Therefore we enforce the existence of linear prices where no one incurs a loss and only combinatorial bids might see a not realized gain. The resulting optimization problem is an MPEC that can not be solved efficiently by a standard solver. We present an exact algorithm and a fast heuristic for this type of problem. Both algorithms decompose the MPEC into a master MIP and price subproblems (LPs). The modeling technique and the algorithms are applicable to all MIP based combinatorial auctions.
Martin, Alexander; Pokutta, Sebastian
Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R. Jordan, and Michael P. Wellman
Forecasting Market Prices in a Supply Chain Game Christopher Kiekintveld, Jason Miller, Patrick R, to forecast market prices in the Trading Agent Com- petition Supply Chain Management Game. As a guiding, Experimentation, Measurement Keywords Forecasting, Markets, Price prediction, Trading agent competition, Supply
Large Quantities of Electricity Demand for AgriculturalLarge Size of the Market Electricity demand for agriculturalconstraints, and electricity demand in MH state to simulate
Impact of storage on the efficiency and prices in real-time electricity markets
We study the effect of energy-storage systems in dynamic real-time electricity markets. We consider that demand and renewable generation are stochastic, that real-time production is affected by ramping constraints, and that market players seek to selfishly ... Keywords: electricity pricing, energy economics, energy storage system, market efficiency
Nicolas Gast, Jean-Yves Le Boudec, Alexandre Prouti�re, Dan-Cristian Tomozei
Effects of Price Signal Choices on Market Stability Hideyuki Mizuta
their estimates of price trend. The agents then send bids to sell or buy according to their food inventory of trend traders. In section 3 we describe the effects of using other price signals, specifically, the introduction of trend traders can produce price bubbles, as illustrated in Fig. 6. Until now we have described
Steiglitz, Kenneth
Market Integration, Efficiency, and Interconnectors: The Irish Single Electricity Market
). Interconnecting fossil dominated electricity systems such as SEM with hydro based systems could reduce price volatility and mitigate subsequent market uncertainties (Matsukawa and Mulder, 2004). A stable wholesale price, on the other hand, provides stability... as shown in Table 1. Only 1% of scheduled generation in SEM was obtained via the interconnector in 2008 (UREGNI, 2009). Figure one shows the scheduled generation mix for the first three quarters of 2009 (January-September). The fuel mix is dominated...
Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
Natural Gas Marketer Prices and Sales To Residential and Commercial Customers: 2002-2005
This report compares residential and commercial prices collected from natural gas marketers and local distribution companies in MD, NY, OH and PA from 2002-2005 and gives the history and status of natural gas choice programs in those States.
Amy Sweeney
Empirical Analysis of the Spot Market Implications of Price-Responsive Demand
CA, USA. Siddiqui, AS (2004), �Price-Elastic Demand inand Demand Response in Electricity Markets,� CSEM Working Paper CSEM-WP-105, University of California Energy Institute, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S. Speaker(s): Nancy Wallace Date: June 15, 2011 - 12:00pm Location: 90-3122 Seminar Host/Point of Contact: Paul Mathew The talk will cover the results from an empirical paper that analyzes the relationship between energy factor markets, leasing structures and the transaction prices of office buildings in the {U.S.} We employ a large sample of 15,133 office building transactions that occurred between 2001 and 2010. In addition to building characteristics, we also include information on the operating expenses, the net operating income, and the market capitalization rates at sale to estimate an asset pricing model for commercial office real estate assets. A further set of important controls
Focusing on Profitable Wholesale Customers: Summary Sheet
EPRI has launched research into profitable business strategies for energy wholesalers to gain insight into the markets where they operate and provide guidance on pursuing potential new business strategies. EPRI Product 1000282, "Profitable Business Strategies for Energy Wholesalers: Guidebook," provides detailed analysis of that study's findings. This technology review, EPRI Product Number 1000281, provides a spreadsheet framework to begin analyzing the importance of specific retailers as customers for a...
View All Tags � View Tag Cloud � ... The FOB price is quoted at the rail or barge point of origin. ... and influence other risk management mechanisms.
Definition: Critical Peak Pricing | Open Energy Information
Pricing Pricing Jump to: navigation, search Dictionary.png Critical Peak Pricing When utilities observe or anticipate high wholesale market prices or power system emergency conditions, they may call critical events during a specified time period (e.g., 3 p.m.-6 p.m. on a hot summer weekday), the price for electricity during these time periods is substantially raised. Two variants of this type of rate design exist: one where the time and duration of the price increase are predetermined when events are called and another where the time and duration of the price increase may vary based on the electric grid's need to have loads reduced;[1] Related Terms electricity generation References ↑ https://www.smartgrid.gov/category/technology/critical_peak_pricing Ret LikeLike UnlikeLike
October 2009Rethinking Real Time Electricity Pricing
Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the �rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly real time pricing (RTP). I �nd that enrolled households are statistically signi�cantly price elastic and that consumers responded by conserving energy during peak hours, but remarkably did not increase average consumption during o�-peak times. Welfare analysis suggests that program households were not su � ciently price elastic to generate e � ciency gains that substantially outweigh the estimated costs of the advanced electricity meters required to observe hourly consumption. Although in electricity pricing, congestion pricing, and many other settings, economists�intuition is that prices should be aligned with marginal costs, residential RTP may provide an important real-world example of a situation where this is not currently welfare-enhancing given contracting or information costs.
Hunt Allcott; Hunt Allcott; Bill Hogan; Erich Muehlegger; Larry Katz; Erin Mansur; Sendhil Mullainathan; Paul Niehaus; Chris Nosko; Ariel Pakes; Dave Rapson; Rob Stavins; Frank Wolak
Energy Factors, Leasing Structure and the Market Price of Office Buildings in the U.S. ?
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between energy factor markets, leasing structures and the transaction prices of office buildings in the U.S. We employ a large sample of 15,133 office building transactions that occurred between 2001 and 2010. In addition to building characteristics, we also include information on the operating expenses, the net operating income, and the market capitalization rates at sale to estimate an asset pricing model for commercial office real estate assets. A further set of important controls in our analysis is the one-to-twelve month forward contract prices and the shape of the forward contract price curve, using auction data for the regional electricity trading hubs in which the building is located and auction data from the Henry Hub for natural gas. We also include weather metrics in the form of the variance in the last twelve months of minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation for each building�s location and sale date. Our final set of controls includes information on the dominant contractual leasing structure of the buildings. Our empirical results suggest that Energy Star labels do not explain additional variance in property prices once the key asset pricing factors of expenses, income and market capitalization rates are included. Energy factor market prices, the shape of the energy forward price curves, and weather metrics are consistently shown to be statistically significant determinants of office building transaction prices, suggesting that commercial office building prices are likely to be exposed to shocks in these markets.
Dwight Jaffee; Richard Stanton; Nancy Wallace
link wholesale and retail real-time prices. 6.0 Referencesdynamic prices such as real-time prices and peak prices andFigure 5. Average Daily Real-Time Prices and Price Duration
The Impact of Varying Natural Gas Prices on the Potential Distributed Resources Market
Studies of the potential market for distributed resources (DR) have typically assumed that long-term gas rates will increase in a gradual and uniform fashion; however, natural gas rates can peak at very high rates as they did in late 2000 and early 2001. This project studied the response of the DR market to changes in future gas prices in a range of plausible scenarios. It suggests that relatively high natural gas prices and non-uniform annual price fluctuations may strongly affect the size and character...
Buying Beauty: On Prices and Returns in the Art Market
This paper investigates the price determinants and investment performance of art. We apply a hedonic regression analysis to a new data set of more than one million auction transactions of paintings and works on paper. Based on the resulting price index, ... Keywords: art, auctions, hedonic regressions, investments, repeat-sales regressions, sentiment
Luc Renneboog; Christophe Spaenjers
On the shortterm influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses
This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both linear and nonlinear relationships. Our findings show that there are significant links between the two variables in Qatar, Oman, and UAE. Thus, stock markets in these countries react positively to oil price
Mohamed El; Hedi Arouri; Julien Fouquau
Forecasting next-day price of electricity in the Spanish energy market using artificial neural networks
In this paper, next-day hourly forecasts are calculated for the energy price in the electricity production market of Spain. The methodology used to achieve these forecasts is based on artificial neural networks, which have been used successfully in recent ... Keywords: ART network, Backpropagation network, Box-Jenkins, Electricity market, Neural networks, Time series forecasting
Ra�l Pino; Jos� Parreno; Alberto Gomez; Paolo Priore
Efficient Retail Pricing in Electricity and Natural Gas Markets: A Familiar Problem with New Challenges
A long line of research investigates whether the retail prices of electricity and natural gas send proper signals about scarcity in order to induce efficient consumption. Historically, regulated utilities have not designed tariffs that set marginal prices equal to marginal costs. Currently, some jurisdictions are opening the retail sectors of the gas and electricity industry to competition via �retail choice�. These new regimes replace imperfect regulation with imperfect competition as the process by which retail tariffs are formed. We discuss the challenges in evaluating the efficiency of these new pricing regimes and present descriptive evidence of how pricing has changed in markets with retail choice.
Steven L. Puller; Jeremy West
Internet Advertising: Market Structure and New Pricing Methods
In this paper the Internet advertising market is analyzed. Data and estimates confirm that the Web represents a real threat to television and newspapers. Therefore, the main characteristics of the advertising market are described in order to point out ...
Andrea Mang�ni
Coal market fundamentals changed, yet spot prices remained stable ...
Financial market analysis and financial data for major energy companies. ... Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Coal Production, ...
Unstable Price Dynamics as a Result of Information Absorption in Speculative Markets
In speculative markets, risk-free profit opportunities are eliminated by traders exploiting them. Markets are therefore often described as "informationally efficient", rapidly removing predictable price changes, and leaving only residual unpredictable fluctuations. This classical view of markets absorbing information and otherwise operating close to an equilibrium is challenged by extreme price fluctuations, in particular since they occur far more frequently than can be accounted for by external news. Here we show that speculative markets which absorb mainly self-generated information can exhibit both: evolution towards efficient equilibrium states as well as their subsequent destabilization. This peculiar dynamics, a generic instability arising from an adaptive control which annihilates predictable information, is realized in a minimal agent-based market model where the impacts of agents' strategies adapt according to their trading success. This adaptation implements a learning rule for the market as a whole...
Patzelt, Felix
Credit Market Distortions, Asset Prices and Monetary Policy
decisions. In our framework, ?rms are committed to pay 3the wage bill before production takes place and pro?ts are realized. Although ?rms could alternatively issue new equity, this possibility is a priori excluded. In fact, due to adverse selection... prices is always bene?cial, from a welfare point of view, 4when the central bank considers a term re?ecting stock price volatility in the loss function. Our results point out that responding to asset prices misalignments might be bene?cial when strong...
Pfajfar, D; Santoro, E
Want to Put an End to Capacity Markets? Think Real-Time Pricing
The amount of generation capacity that must be installed to meet resource adequacy requirements often causes the energy market to be suppressed to the point that it fails to produce sufficient revenues to attract new entry. A significant expansion in the use of real-time pricing can, over time, cause the energy market to become a more bountiful source of revenues for generators, allowing the elimination of the capacity market. (author)
Reeder, Mark
Futures Markets and the Reservation Price of Stumpage
are out of date. lumber and plywood prices to adjust theselength 2x4 full of random lumber (or 1/2 1� COX plywood forthe plywood contract) delivered in a specific place,
Berck, Peter; Bible, Thomas
Forthcoming, Utilities Policy, 2010. Using Forward Markets to Improve Electricity Market Design
Analysis of price diffusion in financial markets using PUCK model
Based on the new type of random walk process called the Potentials of Unbalanced Complex Kinetics (PUCK) model, we theoretically show that the price diffusion in large scales is amplified 2/(2 + b) times, where b is the coefficient of quadratic term of the potential. In short time scales the price diffusion depends on the size M of the super moving average. Both numerical simulations and real data analysis of Yen-Dollar rates are consistent with theoretical analysis.
Mizuno, T; Takayasu, M; Mizuno, Takayuki; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako
Controlling Market Power and Price Spikes in Electricity Networks: Demand-side Bidding
Simona Lup, Jia Jing Liu and Stephen Sosnicki for help with running the experiments and testing the software. This paper has benefited from comments from Kevin McCabe, Mark Olson, Dave Porter, and Stan Reynolds, but all errors are our own. The data are available upon request from the authors. Controlling Market Power and Price Spikes in Electricity Networks: Demand-Side Bidding In this paper we report experiments that examine how two structural features of electricity networks contribute to the exercise of market power in deregulated markets. The first feature is the distribution of ownership of a given set of generating assets. In the market power treatment, two large firms are allocated baseload and intermediate cost generators such that either firm might unilaterally withhold the capacity of its intermediate cost generators from the market to benefit from the supracompetitive prices that would result from only selling its baseload units. In the converse treatment, ownership of some of the intermediate cost generators is transferred from each of these firms to two other firms, so that no one firm could unilaterally restrict output to spawn supra-competitive prices. The second feature explores how the presence of line constraints in a radial network may segment the market and promote supra-competitive pricing in the isolated market segments. We also consider the interaction effect when both of these structural features are present. Having established a wellcontrolled data set with price spikes paralleling those observed in the naturally occurring economy, we also extend the design to include demand-side bidding. We find that demand-side bidding completely neutralizes the exercise of market power and eliminates price spikes.
Stephen J. Rassenti; Vernon L. Smith; Bart J. Wilson
Price discovery in auction markets: A look inside the black box
This paper examines the process of price discovery at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) single price opening auction. Interest in this topic is motivated by the crucial role played by opening mechanisms in information aggregation following the overnight non-trading period. In addition, the operation of auction markets is an issue of considerable importance for new, automated trading systems as well as extant exchanges. We show empirically that specialists significantly facilitate price discovery. Specifically, the opening price set by the specialist is more efficient than the price that would prevail in a pure auction with only public orders. This is consistent with a model where specialists learn from observing the evolution of the limit order book. The specialist�s opening trade reflects private information and non-informational factors such as inventory control and price continuity. We discuss the empirical and policy implications of these results.
Ananth Madhavan; Venkatesh Panchapagesan; Frank Hatheway; Patrik S; George Sofianos
Statewide Participation in NYISO Demand Response Programs:SC-3A Peak Period Demand Response: Shifting Only andDemand Response .
of Niagara Mohawk�s Large Customers (Peak Demand >large customers with peak demand in excess of two megawattsmonthly peak and off- peak demand blocks (at 100% load
Business Type Number of Customers Industrial Commercialwe identified a number of customer-specific factors that wealso constructed a number of customer-specific categorical
participant�s typical hourly energy usage, as defined by thechanging usage in a way more typical of energy-efficiency
The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory
prices and wholesale electricity prices. In this light, theby extension future electricity prices) may end up markedlythe form of lower electricity prices), and by reducing the
Bolinger, Mark A
Petroleum Marketing Annual, 1987
In world crude oil markets, 1987 was a year of limited recovery and relative stability after the dramatic price slide of early 1986. Both foreign and domestic crude thereafter, ending the year somewhat higher than a year ago. In contrast, product wholesale markets remained relatively stable throughout the year, while retail prices sustained a fairly steady increase. As has been the case for over a decade, major price movements in international oil markets generally reflected responses to actual or perceived changes in the policies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and/or its members. The year began with prices on an upward trend, in reaction to the December 1986 OPEC meeting in which the members resolved to return to an official pricing structure (a departure from the market-based pricing of 1986), and to reduce output quotas. Prices continued to rise until August, when evidence of continued OPEC overproduction appeared to outweigh market optimism, triggering a gradual slide that lasted the remainder of the year. Even with the downturn in the fourth quarter, crude oil markets in 1987, as measured by refiner acquisition costs, finished the year above year-end 1986 levels, and considerably above the lows reached in mid-1986. OPEC's struggle to maintain stable prices and production levels in 1987 reflected the organization's difficulties in reaching and enforcing agreements among its politically and economically diverse membership. 11 figs., 49 tabs.
Biofuel policy and stock price in imperfectly competitive markets.
??The increase in demand for corn as a biofuel feedstock has had a significant impact on the agricultural markets in the United States. These include� (more)
Tepe, Fatma Sine
2010 Wind Technologies Market Report
natural gas and wholesale electricity prices, and slumping overall demand for energy countered the ongoing availability of existing federal and state incentivesnatural gas and wholesale electricity prices, and slumping overall demand for energy countered the ongoing availability of existing federal and state incentivesnatural gas and wholesale electricity prices, and slumping overall demand for energy outweighed the ongoing availability of existing federal and state incentives
Retail Price Changes Lag Spot Prices - U.S. Energy Information ...
This effect can explain some of the seemingly anomalous behavior of retail prices in relation to wholesale. ... Also, many have claimed that gasoline prices rise ...
The Natural Number of Forward Markets for Electricity
2002). �The trouble with electricity markets: Understandings restructured wholesale electricity market,� Americanpricing derivatives in electricity markets,� Quantitative
Suenaga, Hiroaki; Williams, Jeffrey
Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule
The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.
On the coordination of dynamic marketing channels and two-part tariffs
An important result in a static marketing channel is that the manufacturer can reach the vertically integrated channel solution through the use of a two-part wholesale price. This means that the collectively optimal solution is achieved in a decentralized ... Keywords: Coordination, Differential games, Marketing channels, Two-part tariff
Georges Zaccour
LNG price parity with oil clouds future of European gas market
Europe's international gas trade may have to mark time while the gas industry determines whether the fuel can remain competitive in the wake of Algeria's recent political victory - a high price for its LNG exports to France. Potential gas buyers will face sellers seeking to emulate the $5.10/million Btu price level. The latest conflict, between Algeria and Italy, is preventing start-up of the completed trans-Mediterranean pipeline. Large gas-price increases across Europe would prompt bulk steam-raisers to move to other fuels; the premium household and commercial markets would not be able to absorb the surplus. If the trend of LNG price parity with crude continues, gas could lose a substantial share of its European market and LNG projects will continue to be abandoned.
Vielvoye, R.
A Regional Approach to Market Monitoring in the West
Market monitoring involves the systematic analysis of pricesand behavior in wholesale power markets to determine when and whetherpotentially anti-competitive behavior is occurring. Regional TransmissionOrganizations (RTOs) typically have a market monitoring function. Becausethe West does not have active RTOs outside of California, it does nothave the market monitoring that RTOs have. In addition, because the Westoutside of California does not have RTOs that perform centralized unitcommitment and dispatch, the rich data that are typically available tomarket monitors in RTO markets are not available in the West outside ofCalifornia. This paper examines the feasibility of market monitoring inthe West outside of California given readily available data. We developsimple econometric models of wholesale power prices in the West thatmight be used for market monitoring. In addition, we examine whetherproduction cost simulations that have been developed for long-runplanning might be useful for market monitoring. We find that simpleeconometric models go a long ways towards explaining wholesale powerprices in the West and might be used to identify potentially anomalousprices. In contrast, we find that the simulated prices from a specificset of production cost simulations exhibit characteristics that aresufficiently different from observed prices that we question theirusefulness for explaining price formation in the West and hence theirusefulness as a market monitoring tool.
Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles
Does property market risks matter in commercial mortgage loan pricing : an inquiry into the determinants of commercial mortgage loan spread
The study takes a quantitative approach to test the determinants of commercial mortgage loan pricing at origination. The determinants include capital market risk, property market risks, mortgage terms and property ...
Wang, Xin, S.M. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation ?
We show that easier access to mortgage credit significantly increases house prices by using exogenous changes in the conforming loan limit as an instrument for easier credit supply and cheaper cost of credit. We find that houses that become eligible for financing with a conforming loan show an increase in house value of 1.1 dollars per square foot (for an average price per square foot of 224 dollars) and higher overall house prices controlling for a rich set of house characteristics. These coefficients are consistent with a local elasticity of house prices to interest rates below 6. In addition, loan to value ratios around the conforming loan limit deviate significantly from the common 80 percent norm, which confirms that it is an important factor in the financing choices of home buyers. In line with our interpretation, the results are stronger in the first half of our sample (1998-2001) when the conforming loan limit was more important, given that other forms of financing were less common and substantially more expensive.
Manuel Adelino; Antoinette Schoar; Felipe Severino; We Thank Viral Acharya; Gustavo Manso; Atif Mian; Sendhil Mullainathan; Chris Mayer; David Scharfstein; Mathew Slaughter; Jeremy Stein; Bill Wheaton
Spot pricing of electricity and ancillary services in a competitive California market
Typically, in competitive electricity markets, the vertically integrated utilities that were responsible for ensuring system reliability in their own service territories, or groups of territories, cease to exist. The burden falls to an independent system operator (ISO) to ensure that enough ancillary services (AS) are available for safe, stable, and reliable operation of the grid, typically defined, in part, as compliance with officially approved engineering specifications for minimum levels of AS. In order to characterize the behavior of market participants (generators, retailers, and an ISO) in a competitive electricity market with reliability requirements, spot markets for both electricity and AS are modeled. By assuming that each participant seeks to maximize its wealth and that all markets clear, we solve for the optimal quantities of electricity and AS traded in the spot market by all participants, as well as the market clearing prices for each.
Siddiqui, A.S.; Marnay, C.; Khavkin, M.
Contract No. DE-AC03-76SF00098. Price-Elastic Demand in Deregulated Electricity Markets
The degree to which anyderegulated market functions e ciently often depends on the ability ofmarket agents to respond quickly to uctuating conditions. Many restructured electricity markets, however, experience high prices caused by supply shortages and little demand-side response. We examine the implications for market operations when a risk-averse retailer's end-use consumers are allowed to perceive real-time variations in the electricity spot price. Using a market-equilibrium model, we nd that price elasticity bothincreases the retailer's revenue risk exposure and decreases the spot price. Since the latter induces the retailer to reduce forward electricity purchases, while the former has the opposite e ect, the overall impact of price responsive demand on the electricity forward price is ambiguous. Indeed, each retailer's response depends on the relative magnitudes of its risk exposure and end-user price elasticity. Nevertheless, price elasticity decreases cumulative electricity consumption. By extending the analysis to allow for early settlement of demand, we nd that forward stage end-user price responsiveness decreases the electricity forward price relative to the case with price-elastic demand only in real time. Moreover, we nd that only if forward stage end-user demand is price elastic will the equilibrium electricity forward price be reduced.
Afzal S. Siddiqui; Afzal S. Siddiqui
demand growth. Current electricity market designs are being reviewed to avoid supply difficulties concept, named "capacity tag" for each plant is being proposed and in the FERC/EU direc- tives in the US INTERRUPTED MARKETS OPERATING COUNTRIES WITH POWER ADJUSTMENTS INTHE REFORM PROCESS INTERESTED INTHE NEW
Rudnick, Hugh
Estimating Large-Customer Demand Response Market Potential:Integrating Price and Customer Behavior
ABSTRACT=Demand response (DR) is increasingly recognized asan essential ingredient to well-functioning electricity markets. DRmarket potential studies can answer questions about the amount of DRavailable in a given area, from which market segments. Several recent DRmarket potential studies have been conducted, most adapting techniquesused to estimate energy-efficiency (EE) potential. In this scoping study,we: reviewed and categorized seven recent DR market potential studies;recommended a methodology for estimating DR market potential for large,non-residential utility customers that uses price elasticities to accountfor behavior and prices; compiled participation rates and elasticityvalues from six DR options offered to large customers in recent years,and demonstrated our recommended methodology with large customer marketpotential scenarios at an illustrative Northeastern utility. We recommendan elasticity approach for large-customer DR options that rely oncusto!
Goldman, Charles; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Cappers, Peter
Application of a new hybrid neuro-evolutionary system for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets
In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile ... Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, Hybrid neuro-evolutionary system, Neural network, Price forecast
Nima Amjady; Farshid Keynia
Customer Strategies for Responding to Day-Ahead Market HourlyElectricity Pricing
Real-time pricing (RTP) has been advocated as an economically efficient means to send price signals to customers to promote demand response (DR) (Borenstein 2002, Borenstein 2005, Ruff 2002). However, limited information exists that can be used to judge how effectively RTP actually induces DR, particularly in the context of restructured electricity markets. This report describes the second phase of a study of how large, non-residential customers' adapted to default-service day-ahead hourly pricing. The customers are located in upstate New York and served under Niagara Mohawk, A National Grid Company (NMPC)'s SC-3A rate class. The SC-3A tariff is a type of RTP that provides firm, day-ahead notice of hourly varying prices indexed to New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) day-ahead market prices. The study was funded by the California Energy Commission (CEC)'s PIER program through the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC). NMPC's is the first and longest-running default-service RTP tariff implemented in the context of retail competition. The mix of NMPC's large customers exposed to day-ahead hourly prices is roughly 30% industrial, 25% commercial and 45% institutional. They have faced periods of high prices during the study period (2000-2004), thereby providing an opportunity to assess their response to volatile hourly prices. The nature of the SC-3A default service attracted competitive retailers offering a wide array of pricing and hedging options, and customers could also participate in demand response programs implemented by NYISO. The first phase of this study examined SC-3A customers' satisfaction, hedging choices and price response through in-depth customer market research and a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) demand model (Goldman et al. 2004). This second phase was undertaken to answer questions that remained unresolved and to quantify price response to a higher level of granularity. We accomplished these objectives with a second customer survey and interview effort, which resulted in a higher, 76% response rate, and the adoption of the more flexible Generalized Leontief (GL) demand model, which allows us to analyze customer response under a range of conditions (e.g. at different nominal prices) and to determine the distribution of individual customers' response.
Goldman, Chuck; Hopper, Nicole; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Neenan,Bernie; Boisvert, Dick; Cappers, Peter; Pratt, Donna; Butkins, Kim
Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over the Last Decade
Oil Prices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over This article extends the understanding of oilstock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. In the out
Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets
The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.
Protecting the Market from ``Hockey Stick'' Pricing: How
at the Market Oversight Division of the Public Utility Commission of Texas in Austin. His duties involve the University of Texas at Austin. Shmuel Oren is Professor of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research stick strategy involves offers of a small, expendable quantity of energy or capacity well in excess
Price strategies in dynamic duopolistic markets with deregulated electricity supplies using mixed strategies
While effective competition can force service providers to seek economically efficient methods to reduce costs, the deregulated electricity supply industry still allows some generators to exercise market power at particular locations, thereby preventing ... Keywords: deregulated electricity supplies, mixed strategies, price strategies
Jose B. Cruz, Jr.; Xiaohuan Tan
Reviewing progress in PJM's capacity market structure via the new reliability pricing model
The Reliability Pricing Model introduces significant changes to the capacity market structure of PJM. The main feature of the RPM design is a downward-sloping demand curve, which replaces the highly volatile vertical demand curve. The authors review the latest RPM structure, results of the auctions, and the future course of the implementation process. (author)
Sener, Adil Caner; Kimball, Stefan
Using market-based dispatching with environmental price signals to reduce emissions
of global environment and energy challenges, thereby contributing to informed debate about climate changeUsing market-based dispatching with environmental price signals to reduce emissions and water use with independent policy analysis to provide a solid foundation for the public and private decisions needed
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price
of circumstances. In the electric power industry, studying the costs of load forecasting errors has been a topic forecast in electric load forecasting models is discussed in [21]. The findings of [19][21] are consistentIEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS 1 Economic Impact of Electricity Market Price Forecasting Errors
Cañizares, Claudio A.
While effective competition can force service providers to seek economically efficient methods to reduce costs, the deregulated electricity supply industry still allows some generators to exercise market power at particular locations, thereby preventing ... Keywords: Deregulated electricity supplies, Mixed strategies, Price strategies
On the leverage effect in the Spanish electricity spot market
This article focuses on the study of the leverage effect in the deregulated Spanish wholesale electricity market. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic volatility alternative, a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) ... Keywords: GARCH, TA-ARSV model, asymmetric response of volatility, electricity prices, leverage effect, stochastic volatility
J. M. Montero; M. C. Garc�a; G. Fern�ndez-Avil�s
A Price Dynamics in Bandwidth Markets for Point-to-point Connections
We simulate a network of N routers and M network users making concurrent point-to-point connections by buying and selling router capacity from each other. The resources need to be acquired in complete sets, but there is only one spot market for each router. In order to describe the internal dynamics of the market, we model the observed prices by N-dimensional Ito-processes. Modeling using stochastic processes is novel in this context of describing interactions between end-users in a system with shared resources, and allows a standard set of mathematical tools to be applied. The derived models can also be used to price contingent claims on network capacity and thus to price complex network services such as quality of service levels, multicast, etc.
Lars Rasmusson; Erik Aurell
Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets
Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Natural Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .
Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry
Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Gas Prices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .versus AEO and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices . . . . . .
Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through
Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through EIA Home > Petroleum > Petroleum Feature Articles Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through Printer-Friendly PDF Diesel Fuel Price Pass-through by Michael Burdette and John Zyren* Over the past several years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has extensively studied the relationships between wholesale and retail markets for petroleum products. Beginning with gasoline, we looked at the two ends of the pricing structure in the U.S. market: daily spot prices, which capture sales of large quantities of product between refiners, importers/exporters, and traders; and weekly retail prices, measured at local gasoline outlets nationwide. In the course of this analysis, EIA has found that the relationships between spot and retail prices are consistent and predictable, to the extent that changes in spot prices can be used to forecast subsequent changes in retail prices for the appropriate regions. This article represents the extension of this type of analysis and modeling into the diesel fuel markets.
The world oil market and OPEC behavior: The leak-producer price leader model
This is an economic study of the world's oil market in which OPEC plays the central role in determining the oil supply and price. Understanding OPEC's behavior is at the core of understanding the world's oil market. However, oil is a resource belonging to the family of natural resources known as exhaustible. We do not produce oil; we only extract and distribute a fixed amount of the resource over generations. Optimal extraction is a matter of concern to both suppliers and consumers. First, it is shown that using the traditional theory of producers behavior in the conventional commodity markets to explain extractors behavior in exhaustible resource markets is completely wrong. Second, current models of OPEC behavior are reviewed. Third, an alternative model is introduced. Previous authors have not directed their models to give explanations to the peculiar observations in oil market. This model divides the world's oil suppliers into: the free riders (non-OPEC oil producers), the OPEC hawks (a group within OPEC) and the leak-producer price leader (Saudi Arabia). Three factors, namely relatively big oil reserves, no other sources of income, and the avoidance of the so-called backstop technology make Saudi Arabia more interested in lower oil prices than are other oil extractors.
Aboalela, A.A.
Diagnosing Unilateral Market Power in Electricity Reserves Market
Cal- ifornia Power Exchange Energy Markets: Prepared for theCalifornia�s Wholesale Energy Market,� 2001, Department ofpower in the state�s energy markets (Hildebrandt [2001];
Knittel, Christopher R; Metaxoglou, Konstantinos
John Maples John Maples 2011 EIA Energy Conference April 26, 2011 Transportation and the Environment Light-duty vehicle combined Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE) in three cases, 2005-2035 2 0 20 40 60 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 miles per gallon Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 CAFE6 CAFE3 Reference John Maples, April 26, 2011 Light-duty vehicle delivered energy consumption and total transportation carbon dioxide emissions, 2005-2035 3 0 5 10 15 20 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Reference CAFE3 CAFE6 quadrillion Btu 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 million metric tons carbon dioxide equivalent Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 John Maples, April 26, 2011 Distribution of new light-duty vehicle sales by price, 2010 and 2025 (2009$) 4 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011
Paying for demand-side response at the wholesale level
The recent FERC Notice of Public Rulemaking regarding the payment to demand-side resources in wholesale markets has engendered a great deal of comments including FERC's obligation to ensure just and reasonable rates in the wholesale market and criteria for what FERC should do (on grounds of economic efficiency) without any real focus on what that commitment would really mean if FERC actually pursued it. (author)
Falk, Jonathan
Gasoline Prices at Historical Lows - U.S. Energy Information ...
Given recent declines in crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices, we expect retail prices to continue to ease over at least the next few weeks.
Dynamical Theory of Price and Money in Volatile Markets. A Physicist's Reaction to Economics
The creation and annihilation of money and its economic effects are reviewed. Economic values appear "in the mind" of the market participants; e.g., by pretending, maintaining and achieving a particular price for a certain asset. Upon its creation by banks, this kind of "value phantasy" is converted into "real money" often in terms of buyer's debt accompanied by a simultaneous payment of fiat money to the seller. This money is then multiplied on the money market and is competing against other money supplies for the traded assets, goods and services, where it may cause dilution, inflation and reallocation of resources.
Svozil, Karl
Real-time pricing -- supplanted by Price-risk derivatives?
Future trends in pricing options for wholesale electrical generation are discussed. Specifically, the effect of price derivatives on electricity consumption are examined. Economic analyses are presented for customer demand in real-time pricing scenarios with and without a price derivative hedge. It is determined that consumption will be curtailed even when price caps have been purchased. Consumption behavior is also analyzed to determine the effect of different price caps; regardless of price, consumption is curtailed in response to price.
O`Sheasy, M.
The Smart Grid, Entry, and Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets
Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. The Smart Grid is a set of emerging technologies that will facilitate "real-time pricing " for electricity and increase price elasticity of demand. This paper simulates the e�ects of this increased demand elasticity using counterfactual simulations in a structural model of the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland electricity market. The model includes a di�erent approach to the problem of multiple equilibria in multi-unit auctions: I nonparametrically estimate unobservables that rationalize past bidding behavior and use learning algorithms to move from the observed equilibrium counterfactual bid functions. This routine is nested as the second stage of a static entry game that models the Capacity Market, an important element of market design in some restructured electricity markets. There are three central results. First, I �nd that an increase in demand elasticity could actually increase wholesale electricity prices in peak hours, contrary to predictions from short run models, while decreasing Capacity Market prices and total entry. Second, although the increased demand elasticity from the Smart Grid reduces producers�market power, in practice
Hunt Allcott
Agency. IEA, 2009, Energy prices and taxes, Working paper,prices, the shape of the energy price curves, and weatherto high and volatile energy prices. Most economists would
Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market
Respond Asymmet- rically to Crude Oil Price Changes? � Theof the Pricing of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. � Reportwholesale gasoline prices. Crude oil prices are obviously
Lewis, Matt
International market integration for natural gas? : a cointegration analysis of priced in Europe, North America and Japan
We examine the degree of natural gas market integration in Europe, North America and Japan, between the mid 1990?s and 2002. Our hypothesis is that there was a certain split of prices between Europe and North America. The ...
L'Hegaret, Guillaume
Hedging Strategies and the Economic Effects of Price Spikes in the Electricity Market
This thesis concerns the newly deregulated Swedish electricity market. More specifically it concerns the large sudden increases in the spot price of electricity, i.e. price spikes, and what can be done in order to minimise the risk associated with price spikes by the use of hedging strategies. We have focused on smaller electricity trading companies. Our research questions are formulated below. � Which of our constructed hedging strategies will be the most advantageous to use in terms of reducing the risk associated with price spikes and at the same time produce the best total result over the year? � What are the most critical issues that will improve the performance of a smaller electricity trading company�s hedging strategy? Our results reveal that the strategy consisting of more precise hedging instruments is the most appropriate in terms of reducing the negative economic effects of price spikes. We also show that there is a need for electricity trading companies to put more emphasis on implementing a broader risk management strategy. Our research shows that the option strategy was successful and we recommend electricity traders to consider options as a tool in their hedging strategy.
Jan Hermansson; Johan Westberg; Graduate Business School; Printed Elanders; Novum Ab Abstract
The restructuring of regional electricity markets in the U.S. has been accompanied by numerous problems, including generation capacity shortages, transmission congestion, wholesale price volatility, and reduced system reliability. These problems have created significant new opportunities for technologies and business approaches that allow load serving entities and other aggregators, to control and manage the load patterns of their wholesale or retail end-users. These technologies and business approaches for manipulating end-user load shapes are known as Load Management or, more recently, Demand Responsive programs. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) is conducting case studies on innovative demand responsive programs and presents preliminary results for five case studies in this paper. These case studies illustrate the diversity of market participants and range of technologies and business approaches and focus on key program elements such as target markets, market segmentation and participation results; pricing scheme; dispatch and coordination; measurement, verification, and settlement; and operational results where available.
Heffner, Grayson C. Dr.; Goldman, Charles A.
Operation of Distributed Generation Under Stochastic Prices
We model the operating decisions of a commercial enterprisethatneeds to satisfy its periodic electricity demand with either on-sitedistributed generation (DG) or purchases from the wholesale market. Whilethe former option involves electricity generation at relatively high andpossibly stochastic costs from a set of capacity-constrained DGtechnologies, the latter implies unlimited open-market transactions atstochastic prices. A stochastic dynamic programme (SDP) is used to solvethe resulting optimisation problem. By solving the SDP with and withoutthe availability of DG units, the implied option values of the DG unitsare obtained.
Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris
Determining market power in deregulated generation markets by measuring price-cost margins
In this article. the author considers one of the more prominent examples of the SFE type by Aleksandr Rudkevich, Max Duckworth, and Richard Rosen (RDR). The conclusion of their paper, that fewer than 30 competitive firms (or, equivalently, an HHI over 333) likely constitute an impermissibly concentrated market, is a startling one, since it is unlikely that any deregulated electricity market will have this many competitors. In examining the source of the RDR conclusion in some detail and seeing where it goes awry, the author thinks it is possible to glean principles that can guide regulators to draw more sensible conclusions about the number of competitors required in these markets.
Falk, J.
Three Essays on Price Dynamics and Causations among Energy Markets and Macroeconomic Information
This dissertation examines three important issues in energy markets: price dynamics, information flow, and structural change. We discuss each issue in detail, building empirical time series models, analyzing the results, and interpreting the findings. First, we examine the contemporaneous interdependencies and information flows among crude oil, natural gas, and electricity prices in the United States (US) through the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causal structures and Bernanke factorization for price dynamic processes. Test results show that the DAG from residuals of out-of-sample-forecast is consistent with the DAG from residuals of within-sample-fit. The result supports innovation accounting analysis based on DAGs using residuals of out-of-sample-forecast. Second, we look at the effects of the federal fund rate and/or WTI crude oil price shock on US macroeconomic and financial indicators by using a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model and a graphical model without any deductive assumption. The results show that, in contemporaneous time, the federal fund rate shock is exogenous as the identifying assumption in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework of the monetary shock transmission mechanism, whereas the WTI crude oil price return is not exogenous. Third, we examine price dynamics and contemporaneous causality among the price returns of WTI crude oil, gasoline, corn, and the S&P 500. We look for structural break points and then build an econometric model to find the consistent sub-periods having stable parameters in a given VAR framework and to explain recent movements and interdependency among returns. We found strong evidence of two structural breaks and contemporaneous causal relationships among the residuals, but also significant differences between contemporaneous causal structures for each sub-period.
Hong, Sung Wook 1977-
Petroleum Marketing Monthly, September 1985. [Contains glossary
Preliminary data for September 1985 indicate that refiners' crude oil acquisition costs are continuing to decline slowly. The decline in both domestic and imported refiners' crude costs resulted in a drop in the composite acquisition cost of 6 center per barrel (0.2%). In the petroleum products markets, preliminary data (summarized in the table below) show that total refiner/gas plant operator sales of selected petroleum products declined 2.7% from the August sales level. While sales of motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, aviation gasoline, and No. 2 diesel were down in September, sales of No. 2 fuel oil, kerosene, No. 1 distillate, No. 4 fuel oil, and propane showed seasonal increases. In addition, sales of kerosene-type jet fuel rose up slightly. Refiner/gas plant operator prices rose in September for most petroleum products at the retail and wholesale levels. At the retail level, the three grades of motor gasoline were the only products showing price decreases. At the wholesale level, prices of motor gasoline and aviation gasoline declined. Wholesale prices for all the other products increased in September, with the No. 2 distillate price up 4.4 cents per gallon. The September petroleum marketing activity is summarized. 17 figs., 75 tabs.
Cheese Prices
Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information on hauling rates and freight differentials
Schwart Jr., Robert B.; Anderson, David P.; Knutson, Ronald D.
Residential Customer Response to Real-time Pricing: The Anaheim Critical Peak Pricing Experiment
to reduce the day-ahead or real-time price in the Californiaon day- ahead and real-time prices, particularly duringday-ahead and real-time wholesale prices. Declaring a CPP
Wolak, Frank A.
Integrated Retail and Wholesale Power System Operation with Smart-Grid Functionality
1 Integrated Retail and Wholesale Power System Operation with Smart-Grid Functionality Dionysios of retail and wholesale power markets operating over transmission and distribution networks with smart-grid metering. This study reports on the latter work. Index Terms--Restructured power markets, smart grid
Capacity Markets for Electricity
the prevailing PJM energy market price. The demand in thethe prevailing national energy market price. Last, suppliersraising the national energy market price cap P up to f, in
Creti, Anna; Fabra, Natalia
Regulation, Allocation, and Leakage in Cap-and-Trade Markets for CO2
produces relatively low electricity prices compared to anregulations on wholesale electricity prices in the variousScope of Regulation: Electricity Prices by Region (Average
Bushnell, Jim B; Chen, Yihsu
underestimate natural gas prices. The trends changed afterestimate natural gas prices. These trends suggest that
WORKING PAPER SERIESFEDERAL RESERVE BANK of ATLANTA WORKING PAPER SERIES Trading Institutions and Price Discovery: The Cash and Futures Markets for Crude Oil
Abstract: We provide substantial evidence that the futures market for West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased the short-term volatility of the cash price of crude oil. We show that the variability of prices increased using both published posted prices and transaction prices for producers. This increased volatility in the price of crude oil may reflect information aggregated into the price, an increase the variance of shocks to the price of crude oil, or noise in the futures price that affects the cash price. We present evidence from experiments consistent with the interpretation that information aggregation not feasible in a posted-price market can explain at least part of the increase in variance. This evidence supports the proposition that information not previously aggregated into the cash price for crude oil is at least part of the reason for the greater variability of the cash price after the opening of the futures market and provides at least one example in which a futures market increased the volatility of the cash market, and prices became more efficient. JEL classification: G130, G140 Key words: crude oil, futures, posted price, experiments, experimental finance, price discovery, information aggregation
Albert Ballinger; Gerald P. Dwyer; Ann B. Gillette; Albert Ballinger; Gerald P. Dwyer; Ann B. Gillette
An Equilibrium Model of Investment in Restructured Electricity Markets
in Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Markets,� RAND JournalBehavior in a Competitive Electricity Market,� InternationalMarket Power in Electricity Markets: Beyond Concentration
Bushnell, Jim B; Ishii, Jun
Agent-based simulations of the software market under different pricing schemes for software-as-a-service and perpetual software
In this paper, we present agent-based simulations that model the interactions between software buyers and vendors in a software market that offers Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) and perpetual software (PS) licensing under different pricing schemes. In ... Keywords: agentbased simulation, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), decision support, dynamic pricing, perpetual software pricing, software-as-a-service pricing
Juthasit Rohitratana; J�rn Altmann
Rethinking Real-Time Electricity Pricing
Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the �rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly real-time pricing (RTP). I �nd that enrolled households are statistically signi�cantly price elastic and that consumers responded by conserving energy during peak hours, but remarkably did not increase average consumption during o�-peak times. The program increased consumer surplus by $10 per household per year. While this is only one to two percent of electricity costs, it illustrates a potential additional bene�t from investment in retail Smart Grid applications, including the advanced electricity meters required to observe a household�s hourly consumption.
Hunt Allcott; Bill Hogan; Erich Muehlegger; Larry Katz; Erin Mansur; Sendhil Mullainathan; Paul Niehaus; Chris Nosko; Ariel Pakes; Dave Rapson; Rob Stavins; Frank Wolak
Gas Market Transition: Impacts of Power Generation on Gas Pricing Dynamics
The power sector is beginning to influence the natural gas market, affecting both total natural gas demand and aspects of natural gas price behavior. This report offers a single source that quantifies these influences. With the addition of new gas-fired generating capacity, the use of gas generation in the power sector has grown steadily. However, this progression was arrested after 2002 when the brunt of overbuilding was felt, and gas use in the power sector migrated to ever more efficient units. While ...
of the world's largest energy markets, and ensuring that theorganized wholesale energy markets (day-ahead and real time)through the wholesale energy market only. LSEs can offer D R
are exposed to real-time electricity prices, they can adjustCustomers Respond to Electricity Price Variability: A Studyhours lowers the electricity spot price and reduces needed
against the risk of energy price fluctuations. In theory,The poor track record of energy price forecasting models hasof information about future energy prices, including most
Asymmet- rically to Crude Oil Price Changes? � The Quarterlyin West Texas Crude Oil Price Robust-Clustered standardin West Texas Crude Oil Price Robust-Clustered standard
The Distributional and Environmental Effects of Time-Varying Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets
2 permits, and NOx permits. Coal prices are assumed constantfalling average price is stronger, and coal-?red operatinghourly supply (price > $30) Load Coal Oil Gas Panel C:
Holland, Stephen P.; MANSUR, ERIN T
Video market data for calves and yearlings confirms price discounts for Western cattle
highest average nominal prices. ) Results not adjusted fordiscounted. For TABLE 4. Price premiums for value-addedhighest average nominal prices. ) Results not adjusted for
Blank, Steven; Forero, Larry C.; Nader, Glenn A.
Search with Learning from Prices: Does In- creased In?Gilbert (1997) �Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmet- ricallyto Crude Oil Price Changes? � The Quarterly Journal of
Western cattle prices vary across video markets and value-adding programs
results show average price differences between the regionthe highest average prices. � These values are statisticallyfactors affecting cow auction price differentials. Southern
Blank, Steven C.; Boriss, Hayley; Forero, Larry C.; Nader, Glenn A.
Today in Energy - Daily Prices - Prices - U.S. Energy Information
December 20, 2013Daily Prices December 20, 2013Daily Prices Daily wholesale and retail prices for various energy products are shown below, including spot prices and select futures prices at national or regional levels. Prices are updated each weekday (excluding federal holidays), typically between 7:30 and 8:30 a.m. This page is meant to provide a snapshot of selected daily prices only. Prices are republished by EIA with permission as follows: Wholesale Spot Petroleum Prices from Thomson Reuters, Retail Petroleum Prices from AAA Fuel Gauge Report, Prompt-Month Energy Futures from CME Group, and Select Spot Prices from SNL Energy. Daily Prices Wholesale Spot Petroleum Prices, 12/19/13 Close Product Area Price Percent Change* Crude Oil ($/barrel) WTI 98.40 +0.8 Brent 110.78 +1.1 Louisiana Light 108.27 +4.9
Empirical analysis of the spot market implications ofprice-elastic demand
Regardless of the form of restructuring, deregulated electricity industries share one common feature: the absence of any significant, rapid demand-side response to the wholesale (or, spotmarket) price. For a variety of reasons, electricity industries continue to charge most consumers an average cost based on regulated retail tariff from the era of vertical integration, even as the retailers themselves are forced to purchase electricity at volatile wholesale prices set in open markets. This results in considerable price risk for retailers, who are sometimes forbidden by regulators from signing hedging contracts. More importantly, because end-users do not perceive real-time (or even hourly or daily) fluctuations in the wholesale price of electricity, they have no incentive to adjust their consumption in response to price signals. Consequently, demand for electricity is highly inelastic, and electricity generation resources can be stretched to the point where system stability is threatened. This, then, facilitates many other problems associated with electricity markets, such as market power and price volatility. Indeed, economic theory suggests that even modestly price-responsive demand can remove the stress on generation resources and decrease spot prices. To test this theory, we use actual generator bid data from the New York control area to construct supply stacks, and intersect them with demand curves of various slopes to approximate different levels of demand elasticity. We then estimate the potential impact of real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and quantity. These results indicate the immediate benefits that could be derived from a more price-elastic demand. Such analysis can provide policymakers with a measure of how effective price-elastic demand can potentially reduce prices and maintain consumption within the capability of generation resources.
Market Structure and Competition: A Cross-Market Analysis of U.S. Electricity Deregulation
Wolak (2002). �Measuring Market Ine?ciencies in California�Wholesale Electricity Market. � American Economic Review,s Electricity Crisis: A Market Apart?. � Energy Policy. 32(
Bushnell, James; Mansur, Erin T.; Saravia, Celeste
Electricity prices in a competitive environment: Marginal cost pricing of generation services and financial status of electric utilities. A preliminary analysis through 2015
The emergence of competitive markets for electricity generation services is changing the way that electricity is and will be priced in the United States. This report presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated {open_quotes}cost-of-service{close_quotes} pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers? This study is not intended to be a cost-benefit analysis of wholesale or retail competition, nor does this report include an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of competitive electricity prices.
The price of electricity from private power producers
The long-term wholesale electricity market is becoming increasingly competitive. Bidding for power contracts has become a dominant form of competition in this sector. The prices which emerge from this process have not been documented and compared in a systematic framework. This paper introduces a method to make such comparisons and illustrates it on a small sample of projects. This results show a wide range of prices for what is essentially the same technology, gas-fired combined cycle generation. The price range seems greater than what could be explained by transmission cost differences between high and low cost regions. For the smaller sample of coal-fired projects, price variation is substantially less. Further data collection and analysis should be able to help isolate more clearly what market or cost factors are responsible for the observed variation.
Kahn, E.; Milne, A.; Kito, S.
35 Panel B: Hourly real-time prices Mean change std. dev.of the e?ciency gains of real-time price variation could beof the customers pay real-time prices, i.e. , retail prices
used to adjust the real-time price perceived by end-useare exposed to real-time electricity prices, they can adjustof real-time pricing (RTP) on the equilibrium spot price and
used to adjust the real-time price perceived by end-useare exposed to real-time electricity prices, then they canof real-time pricing on the equilibrium spot price and
Estimating the Customer-Level Demand for Electricity Under Real-Time Market Prices
This paper presents estimates of the customer-level demand for electricity by industrial and commercial customers purchasing electricity according to the half-hourly energy prices from the England and Wales (E&W) electricity market. These customers also face the possibility of a demand charge on its electricity consumption during the three half-hour periods that are coincident with E&W system peaks. Although energy charges are largely known by 4 PM the day prior to consumption, a fraction of the energy charge and the identity of the half-hour periods when demand charges occur are only known with certainty ex post of consumption. Four years of data from a Regional Electricity Company (REC) in the United Kingdom is used to quantify the half-hourly customer-level demands under this real-time pricing program. The econometric model developed and estimated here quantifies the extent of intertemporal substitution in electricity consumption across pricing periods within the day due to changes ...
Robert H. Patrick; Frank A. Wolak
Petroleum Marketing Monthly (PMM) - October 2013 With Data for ...
Highlights. Figure HL1. Crude oil and petroleum product wholesale prices figure data. Highlights Crude Oil. July monthly average prices for crude oil show firm ...
Transmission grid access and pricing in Norway, Spain, and California: A comparative study
The openness of the transmission grid and the incentives given by transmission pricing form the foundation for retail and wholesale competition in the electricity market. The deregulated markets of Norway, Spain, and California all have introduced retail access and wholesale competition, although with different approaches to pricing of transmission grid services. This paper will briefly describe the three different solutions, and discuss some of their implications. Of the three electricity systems, Norway was the first to open the grid to competition in electricity trade. The Norwegian Energy Law of 1990 introduced open competition to wholesale and retail trade starting January 1991. In Spain, the Electricity Law of 1997 came into force early in 1998. Wholesale and retail markets in California were opened for competition on April 1, 1998, following the passage of Assembly Bill 1890, in August 1996. Introducing competition in electricity markets also implies introducing Third Party Access to the transmission grid. All potential competitors have to be given access to the grid in order to compete, no matter who owns the actual wires. This principle raises several challenges, notably, how to price transmission services. Who is to pay for which transmission services? The Norwegian grid is divided into three levels depending on its function. The transmission grid includes all parts of the national grid having a transmission function, meaning that some lower voltage levels also are included. In Spain, the definition of the transmission grid is similar, including the 400 kV and 220 kV national grid as well as lower voltage installations that could affect transmission operation or generation dispatch. For historic reasons, wholesale electricity transactions in the US are regulated by the federal government through the FERC. However, operations of utility systems within one state fall primarily under state jurisdiction. Because the utility systems in California generally are large and exchanges between them limited, the role of FERC was small prior to restructuring, although the state is a large importer of power.
Gronli, H.; Gomez San Ramon, T.; Marnay, C.
The importance of vehicle costs, fuel prices, and fuel efficiency to HEV market success.
Toyota's introduction of a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) named ''Prius'' in Japan and Honda's proposed introduction of an HEV in the United States have generated considerable interest in the long-term viability of such fuel-efficient vehicles. A performance and cost projection model developed entirely at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) is used here to estimate costs. ANL staff developed fuel economy estimates by extending conventional vehicle (CV) modeling done primarily under the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. Together, these estimates are employed to analyze dollar costs vs. benefits of two of many possible HEV technologies. We project incremental costs and fuel savings for a Prius-type low-performance hybrid (14.3 seconds zero to 60 mph acceleration, 260 time) and a higher-performance ''mild'' hybrid vehicle, or MHV (11 seconds 260 time). Each HEV is compared to a U.S. Toyota Corolla with automatic transmission (11 seconds 260 time). The base incremental retail price range, projected a decade hence, is $3,200-$3,750, before considering battery replacement cost. Historical data are analyzed to evaluate the effect of fuel price on consumer preferences for vehicle fuel economy, performance, and size. The relationship between fuel price, the level of change in fuel price, and consumer attitude toward higher fuel efficiency is also evaluated. A recent survey on the value of higher fuel efficiency is presented and U.S. commercial viability of the hybrids is evaluated using discount rates of 2090 and 870. Our analysis, with our current HEV cost estimates and current fuel savings estimates, implies that the U.S. market for such HEVS would be quite limited.
Santini, D. J.; Patterson, P. D.; Vyas, A. D.
Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices
more volatile than the price of coal. Price regulation incoal-fired generation could reduce wholesale electricity pricecoal is found to be more negative than the beta of gas, given that the price
Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William
This study examines the use of OpenADR communications specification, related data models, technologies, and strategies to send dynamic prices (e.g., real time prices and peak prices) and Time of Use (TOU) rates to commercial and industrial electricity customers. OpenADR v1.0 is a Web services-based flexible, open information model that has been used in California utilities' commercial automated demand response programs since 2007. We find that data models can be used to send real time prices. These same data models can also be used to support peak pricing and TOU rates. We present a data model that can accommodate all three types of rates. For demonstration purposes, the data models were generated from California Independent System Operator's real-time wholesale market prices, and a California utility's dynamic prices and TOU rates. Customers can respond to dynamic prices by either using the actual prices, or prices can be mapped into"operation modes," which can act as inputs to control systems. We present several different methods for mapping actual prices. Some of these methods were implemented in demonstration projects. The study results demonstrate show that OpenADR allows interoperability with existing/future systems/technologies and can be used within related dynamic pricing activities within Smart Grid.
Ghatikar, Girish; Mathieu, Johanna L.; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan
Price regulation for waste hauling franchises in California: an examination of how regulators regulate pricing and the effects of competition on regulated markets
Thomadakis, Stavros. �Price Regulation Under Uncertainty in698. B�s, Dieter. Pricing and Price Regulation. Elsevier.Optimal Structure of Public Prices. � The American Economic
Seltzer, Steven A.
Agency. IEA, 2009, Energy prices and taxes, Working paper,to high and volatile energy prices. Most economists wouldIndeed, if and when U.S. energy prices do rise, the economic
and compute the near natural gas price as the Henry Hubin the level of Henry Hub natural gas prices do not have aexpectations that natural gas prices are expected to rise
index.html. Appendix A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for FuturesError STEO Error A.1 Natural Gas Price Data for Futuresof forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the
Response to Electricity Real-Time Prices: Short Run and LongResponse to Electricity Real-Time Prices: Short Run and LongResponse to Real Time Electricity Prices, Unpublished
theory, I use a panel of gas station prices to estimate thetheory, I use a panel of gas station prices to estimate thecost. Using a panel of gas station prices, I estimate an
Strictly Speaking, the Law of One Price Works in Commodity Markets
teststo rejectthe law of one price when in fact it holds.G l . Keywords: law of one price, exchange rates,half livesequation 4 with wheat prices between the U.S. and Japan. All
Pippenger, John
Some Pitfalls in Testing the Law of One Price in Commodity Markets
2000, Should the Law of One Price be Pushed Away? EvidenceJanet, 1994, The Law of One Price Revisited: New Evidence onBehavior of International Prices, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 32,
Phillips, Llad; Pippenger, John
Summer 2011 electricity prices were mostly down compared to summer ...
Except for Texas, California, and the Southwest, average on-peak, wholesale electricity prices at trading points across much of the country declined during the summer ...
Ohio Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (October - March)
Wholesale Heating Oil : Residential ... Weekly heating oil and propane prices are only collected during the heating season which extends from ... 3/20/2013: Next ...
Run E?ects of Real-Time Electricity Pricing,� CSEM WP-133 (Severin. �Time-Varying Retail Electricity Prices: Theoryand Practice,� Electricity Restructuring: Choices and
of Macro Announcements: Real Time Price Discovery in Foreign93, 38�62. (2005): �Real Time Price Discovery in Stock, Bond
World Food Crisis: Imperfect Markets Starving Development, A Decomposition of Recent Food Price Increases.
??The recent decade has experienced two rather substantial food price spikes. This thesis sets out to provide an in-depth look at the recent food price� (more)
Costello, Christine
the forecast. In 1978 the Natural Gas Policy Act was passedof Other Natural Gas Price Forecasts Researchers and policyresearchers and policy makers who utilize natural gas prices
of-Use Prices and Electricity Demand: Allowing for Selectionthe theory of customer electricity demand and the specificfor in evaluating electricity demand and price response. Hot
Dynamic filter weights neural network model integrated with differential evolution for day-ahead price forecasting in energy market
In this paper a new dynamic model for forecasting electricity prices from 1 to 24h in advance is proposed. The model is a dynamic filter weight Adaline using a sliding mode weight adaptation technique. The filter weights for this neuron constitute of ... Keywords: Differential evolution, Dynamic filter weights neuron, Energy market, Local linear wavelet neural network, Sliding mode control
S. Chakravarty; P. K. Dash
U.S. Distillate Market
Market Regional Residential Heating Oil Prices Retail Diesel Fuel Oil Prices Crude Oil Price Cycles Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices.(Prices through March 3, 2000) Low...
All U.S. energy markets including exports and imports U.S.Energy Markets All U.S. energy markets including imports andenergy markets All U.S. energy markets including imports and
Two-Settlement Electric Power Markets with Dynamic-Price Contracts
.g., consumer-owned photovoltaic (PV) panels #12;5 Principal IRW Project Research Topics Dynamic retail/wholesale reliability and efficiency implications of integrating demand response resources as realized thru Top-owned distributed energy resources, such as photovoltaic (PV) generation & plug-in electric vehicles (PEV
Ameren Energy Marketing | Open Energy Information
Name Ameren Energy Marketing Place Missouri Utility Id 970 Utility Location Yes Ownership R NERC Location RFC NERC RFC Yes Activity Wholesale Marketing Yes Activity Retail...
Independence Power Marketing | Open Energy Information
Power Marketing Place New York Utility Id 49921 Utility Location Yes Ownership R NERC Location NPCC Activity Wholesale Marketing Yes References EIA Form EIA-861 Final...
An institutional frame to compare alternative market designs in EU electricity balancing
The so-called "electricity wholesale market" is, in fact, a sequence of several markets. The chain is closed with a provision for "balancing," in which energy from all wholesale markets is balanced under the authority of ...
Glachant, Jean-Michel
Why we need to stick with uniform-price auctions in electricity markets
Arguments that the uniform-price auction yields electricity prices that are systematically too high are incorrect. Tampering with the spot price would cause inefficiency and raise long-term costs. The proper way to dampen the impact of spot price fluctuations is with long-term hedging. (author)
Cramton, Peter; Stoft, Steven
New Jersey and Maryland (PJM) electricity market. Consistentelectricity market known as PJM by constructing a simulationWe apply the model to the PJM electricity market, which
Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Reformulated Motor Gasoline 1995
Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Reformulated Demand, Supply, and Price Outlook for Reformulated Motor Gasoline 1995 by Tancred Lidderdale* Provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 designed to reduce ground-level ozone will increase the demand for reformulated motor gaso- line in a number of U.S. metropolitan areas. Refor- mulated motor gasoline is expected to constitute about one-third of total motor gasoline demand in 1995, and refiners will have to change plant opera- tions and modify equipment in order to meet the higher demand. The costs incurred are expected to create a wholesale price premium for reformu- lated motor gasoline of up to 4.0 cents per gallon over the price of conventional motor gasoline. This article discusses the effects of the new regulations on the motor gasoline market and the refining
National Laboratory Canadian Energy Research Institute U.S.Administration Energy Markets All U.S. energy marketsAll Canadian and U.S. energy markets All U.S. energy markets
EPRG WORKING PAPER A Nuclear Future? UK Government Policy and the Role of the Market
Meeting carbon targets requires decarbonising electricity. The least cost strategy involves nuclear power. In a liberalised electricity market, the price of electricity is set by fossil generation whose input costs are volatile but correlated with electricity prices. Nuclear power lacks that hedged and its finance is threatened by low and uncertain EUA prices. The increasing share of intermittent renewables exacerbates price risk. I propose changes to market design and the transmission access regime, while in the absence of an EU-wide reform to the ETS, a carbon tax seems the cheapest and fiscally most responsible way to deliver decarbonised electricity. Keywords JEL Classification Nuclear power, intermittent renewables, wholesale electricity markets, market design, transmission access, balancing, carbon tax
David M. Newbery; David M. Newbery
Spot Distillate & Crude Oil Prices
Retail distillate prices follow the spot distillate markets, and crude oil prices have been the main driver behind distillate spot price increases until recently.
This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.
the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices:forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Appendix ATable 1. Forecast Year AEO Predicted Price from 1996-2003
Wholesale Power Rate Schedules | Department of Energy
Schedules Schedules Wholesale Power Rate Schedules October 1, 2011 CBR-1-H Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Big Rivers and Henderson, KY System: CU October 1, 2011 CSI-1-H Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Southern Illinois System: CU October 1, 2011 CK-1-H Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: KU Area System: CU October 1, 2011 CEK-1-H Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: East Kentucky System: CU October 1, 2011 CC-1-I Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: CP&L Area, Western Division System: CU September 20, 2011 JW-1-J Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Woodruff Preference Customer System: Jim Woodruff September 20, 2011 JW-2-F Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Florida Power Corporation System: Jim Woodruff November 17, 2010 AP-1-B Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: American Electric Power
Services » Rate Schedules » Wholesale Power Rate Schedules Services » Rate Schedules » Wholesale Power Rate Schedules Wholesale Power Rate Schedules October 1, 2012 ALA-1-N Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: PowerSouth Energy Cooperative System: Georgia-Alabama-South Carolina October 1, 2012 Duke-1-E Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Duke On-System System: Georgia-Alabama-South Carolina October 1, 2012 Duke-2-E Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Central System: Georgia-Alabama-South Carolina October 1, 2012 Duke-3-E Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: None System: Georgia-Alabama-South Carolina October 1, 2012 Duke-4-E Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: Duke Self-Schedulers System: Georgia-Alabama-South Carolina October 1, 2012 MISS-1-N Wholesale Power Rate Schedule Area: South Mississippi Electric Power Association
HOUSES!an independent view of the property market Prices Affordability Lending Activity Supply The Economy
recent European house price trends: An absence of continental drift? School of Architecture, Design and the Built Environment #12;Contents 03 Editorial Dean Garratt Comparing recent European house price trends and editorial focus is: ·European House Price Trends ·Economic Growth We'll also cover national
Petroleum marketing monthly, December 1983
The preliminary statistics for October 1983, show that total operator sales of selected petroleum products, measured in gallons per day, decreased by 2.1 percent compared to the final September sales data. Substantial decreases in sales were reported for each of the four transportation fuels: motor gasoline, No. 2 diesel fuel, aviation gasoline, and kerosene-type jet fuel. Conversely, large increases were reported in operator sales of No. 2 fuel oil, while sales of the secondary heating fuels (kerosene, No. 1 distillate, and propane), along with sales of No. 4 and residual fuel oils, increased slightly. Total operator sales decreased at both the retail and wholesale levels. Because the smaller operators increased their retail product sales, their share of the total operator market increased slightly. Operator prices were predominantly down, except for retail prices of No. 2 fuel oil, aviation gasoline, and kerosene, and the wholesale prices of kerosene-type jet fuel and low-sulfur residual fuel oil. The average retail price of No. 2 distillate for all sellers similarly increased slightly, primarily as a result of increased sales to residential customers. Sales activity for each of the principal product groups are summarized.
Limiting currency volatility to stimulate goods market integration: a price based approach. NBER Working Paper No. 8468
This paper studies the effect of instrumental and institutional stabilization of exchange rate volatility on the integration of goods markets. Rather than using data on volume of trade, this paper employs a 3-dimensional panel of prices of 95 very disaggregated goods (e.g., light bulbs) in 83 cities around the world during 1990-2000. We find that the impact of an institutional stabilization � currency board or dollarization � promotes market integration far beyond an instrumental stabilization. Among them, long-term currency unions are more effective than more recent currency boards. All have room to improve relative to a U.S. benchmark.
David C. Parsley; Shang-jin Wei
Market Power in Power Markets: An Empirical Examination of Competition in the New Zealand Electricity Market.
??This paper considers the performance of the New Zealand Electricity Market after the introduction of competition for the supply of wholesale electricity in 1996. Using� (more)
Gerritsen, Benjamin
Reliability and competitive electricity markets
Despite all of the talk about ?deregulation? of the electricity sector, a large number of non-market mechanisms have been imposed on emerging competitive wholesale and retail markets. These mechanisms include spot market ...
Joskow, Paul L.
Time series analysis of the lead-lag relationship of freight futures and spot market prices
This thesis analyzes the relationship between the physical and paper shipping markets. The main objective is to find if one market leads the other by a specific time period so that market players can take advantage from ...
Gavriilidis, Nikolaos
and imports U.S. electricity and gas markets includingrepresentation of electricity and natural gas markets,initially to conduct electricity restructuring analysis in
The Effect of Price Information in e-Market on Consumers�� Intentions to Join Group Buying.
??Usually, consumers will collect market information about the product before they decide to buy it or not. In other words, the market information is a� (more)
Yang, Chen-Yuan
The restructuring of regional and national electricity markets in the U.S. and around the world has been accompanied by numerous problems, including generation capacity shortages, transmission congestion, wholesale price volatility, and reduced system reliability. These problems have created new opportunities for technologies and business approaches that allow load serving entities and other aggregators to control and manage the load patterns of wholesale and retail end-users they serve. Demand Response Programs, once called Load Management, have re-emerged as an important element in the fine-tuning of newly restructured electricity markets. During the summers of 1999 and 2001 they played a vital role in stabilizing wholesale markets and providing a hedge
Grayson C. Heffner; Grayson C. Heffner
Information, Alternative Markets, and Security Price Processes: A Survey of Literature
In this paper, we survey a wide range of theoretical and empirical papers on derivatives markets to address the information contents of trading activities in derivatives markets. Both theoretical and empirical research on options market and futures market indicate that the presence of alternative markets may be a factor for informed traders � presence in one of or in both markets to trade on their information. One group of researchers support the hypothesis that information reflects in derivatives market first and underlying stock market lags in information transmission. Another group of researchers support the hypothesis that information reflects in stock markets first and trading activities in derivatives markets are not significant. Since researchers are not in agreement in this issue, it raises a potential for further research on different activities of derivatives market.
Rafiqul Bhuyan
Over the past several years, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has extensively studied the relationships between wholesale and retail markets for petroleum products. This article representsthe extension of this type of analysis and modeling into the diesel fuel markets.
Michael Burdette
by low price caps, the di?erence between solar PV powersolar PV power using hourly wholesale electricity prices and5. Real-time Prices for Valuing the Power from Solar PVs As
Beyond the Hype of Frictionless Markets: Evidence of Heterogeneity in Price Rigidity on the Internet
We explore daily patterns of Internet pricing for the two major retailers, Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble (BN), using data on 377 books collected over a 449-day period in 2003-4. We frame this investigation in terms of a key question: How rigid are ... Keywords: Bookselling, E-Commerce, Economic Analysis, Empirical Regularities, Empirical Research, Internet Retailing, Price Rigidity, Strategic Pricing
Mark E. Bergen; Robert J. Kauffman; Dongwon Lee
Cournot Equilibrium in Price-capped Two-Settlement Electricity Markets
-term Contracts and Imperfectly Competitive Spot Markets: A Study of UK Eletricity Industry, Memorandum no. 14
Competitive Spot Markets: A Study of UK Eletricity Industry, Memorandum no. 14, Department of Economics
York (several hubs), Ontario, PJM, MISO, ERCOT South, Intocontract delivering into the PJM Western hub. Assuming thatpeak real-time prices posted by PJM Interconnection, LLC, on
Optimal Spot Market Inventory Strategies in the Presence of Cost and Price Risk
1966. A Continous Time Inventory Model. Jounal of Applied4] Berling, P. Holding Inventory with Stochastically Mean-6] Chaouc, B . 2006. Inventory Control and Periodic Price
Guo, Xin; Kaminsky, Philip; Tomecek, Pascal; Yuen, M.
Effects of futures market manipulation on crude oil prices: An empirical examination.
??Crude oil prices moved irregularly in the period leading to the financial meltdown in the beginning of 2008. This research paper deals with the explaining� (more)
Elhelou, Rami
facilities that receive electricity service from Niagaraperiods is your facility�s electricity use highest? ( CHECKthe next day�s hourly electricity prices? ( CHECK ONLY ONE )
Price discovery and information linkages in the emission allowance and energy markets .
??We provide the first evidence on the catalysts for price discovery in the European Union Emissions Trading System. Short-run return dynamics are analysed using a� (more)
Swieringa, John Edward
A Small-Business Guide: Wholesale Bakeries
The Wholesale Bakeries guidebook is intended to familiarize readers with the business of wholesale baking by providing descriptions of basic processes and practices, and summaries of issues and challenges faced by small- and medium-size wholesale bakeries. It focuses on delineating how electrically driven equipment can address the needs and interests of wholesale bakery owners and operators. The guide includes an introduction and chapters on business challenges, technology solutions, electrotechnologies,...
Impact of market structure and political instability on the official price of OPEC crude (1972-83)
Within the empirical literature, political instability was either completely ignored or the assumption was made that its impact was significant. One of the major objectives of this study is to determine whether political instability had a significant impact on the oil market during the 1972-83 period. Secondly, there were very important changes that took place within the market - considerable reduction in the non-communist world's oil consumption, increase in production outside OPEC, reduced OPEC market share and capacity use, increased sale of oil directly by OPEC rather than through the oil multinationals, and nationalization of the asset of the latter within OPEC. Within the empirical literature some attention has been paid to the first four changes. The last two changes, however, have generally been assumed to be insignificant. Consequently, the second objective is to determine whether the change of the distribution of ownership within and direct marketing by OPEC itself have had a significant impact on the official price of OPEC crude. The third objective is improved specification of past models of the world oil market through consideration of the influences mentioned above. Results of the study show that political instability, contrary to popular opinion, did not have a significant impact on the market during the 1972-83 period.
Kendall, P.
Despite customer outages, wholesale electric markets operated ...
Petroleum & Other Liquids. Crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, propane, and other liquids including biofuels and natural gas liquids. Natural Gas
... though the RTO did declare a Minimum Generation Event, a signal that the dispatcher could not match decreasing load and emergency reducible ...
Deregulating Residential Electricity Markets: What's on Offer? Catherine Waddams Price1
incentives such as time-varying electricity tariff (e.g. spot pricing [1]), or CO2 footprint. Electricity tariff (spot price) for New York City on February 15th, 2011. Data taken from NYISO. The web-varying electricity tariff in the management of the power grid, especially in the reduction of peak power con
Feigon, Brooke
Another Bull Market Consolidation or Have Oil Prices Headed South for the Winter?
This presentation was given at the New York Energy Forum on September 5, 2006. It explores the reasons behind rising oil prices over the last few years and discusses whether the drop in oil prices seen in late August and early September 2005 is the start of a long-running trend or is only a temporary decline.
Information Center
. This work combines an auction-style 33 microsimulation of vehicle prices and random-utility vehicles and the infrastructure they use, directly and peripherally. To understand and anticipate 46 travel to vehicle aging. This paper60 makes explicit the role of user preferences in vehicle price fluctuations
Kockelman, Kara M.
and the methods which have been proposed to handle them in spot and forward price models. We devote special sources, the main production process remains the conversion of fossil fuels like coal, gas and oil. Since and nuclear production as these plants are hardly ever setting the price. In other words, since electricity
Carmona, Rene
Spot crude prices near 12-month high; natural gas and power ...
Key wholesale energy price benchmarks for crude oil, natural gas, and electric power reflect contrasting trends over the past year. International events have ...
Low natural gas prices in 2012 reduced returns for some oil and ...
Producers with lower proportions of liquids in their total oil and gas production generally had ... wholesale natural gas prices in the United States and Canada fell ...
Gasoline Prices at Historical Lows
0 0 Notes: Before looking at El Paso gasoline prices, lets take a minute to look at the U.S. average price for context. Gasoline prices this year, adjusted for inflation, are the lowest ever. Back in March, before prices began to rise ahead of the traditional high-demand season, the U.S. average retail price fell to $1.00 per gallon. Prices rose an average of 7.5 cents, less than the typical seasonal runup, to peak in early June. Since then, prices have fallen back to $1.013. Given recent declines in crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices, we expect retail prices to continue to ease over at least the next few weeks. Since their sharp runup during the energy crises of the 1970s, gasoline prices have actually been non-inflationary. Adjusting the historical prices by the Consumer Price Index, we can see that todays
Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998 to 2003 (2 Futures Market and STEO Error Forecast Error from 1998to 2003 (Months 13- Forecast from 1998 to 2003 (Months 1-12)
Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information�, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No
This paper takes on a narrative and quantitative approach to examine the dynamic effects of oil-price shocks to the U.S. economy. Based on market information collected from various oil-industry trade journals, we separate different kinds of oilprice shocks, and construct measures of exogenous oil shocks that are free of endogeneity and anticipatory problems. Estimation results indicate that oil shocks have had substantial and statistically significant impacts on the U.S. economy during the past two and a half decades. By contrast, traditional VAR identification strategies lead to a much weaker and insignificant real effect for the same period. Further investigation suggests that this discrepancy is possibly due to a lack of identification on the VAR approach, originating from mixing the exogenous oil-supply shocks with endogenous oil-price movements driven by changes in oil demand.
Tao Wu; Michele Cavallo
Geothermal Energy Market Study on the Atlantic Coastal Plain. A Review of Recent Energy Price Projections for Traditional Space Heating Fuel 1985-2000
In order to develop an initial estimate of the potential competitiveness of low temperature (45 degrees C to 100 degrees C) geothermal resources on the Eastern Coastal Plain, the Center for Metropolitant Planning and Research of The Johns Hopkins University reviewed and compared available energy price projections. Series of projections covering the post-1985 period have been made by the Energy Information Administration, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and by private research firms. Since low temperature geothermal energy will compete primarily for the space and process heating markets currently held by petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, projected trends in the real prices for these fuels were examined. The spread in the current and in projected future prices for these fuels, which often serve identical end uses, underscores the influence of specific attributes for each type of fuel, such as cleanliness, security of supply, and governmental regulation. Geothermal energy possesses several important attributes in common with electricity (e.g., ease of maintenance and perceived security of supply), and thus the price of electric space heating is likely to be an upper bound on a competitive price for geothermal energy. Competitiveness would, of course, be increased if geothermal heat could be delivered for prices closer to those for oil and natural gas. The projections reviewed suggest that oil and gas prices will rise significantly in real terms over the next few decades, while electricity prices are projected to be more stable. Electricity prices will, however, remain above those for the other two fuels. The significance of this work rests on the fact that, in market economies, prices provide the fundamental signals needed for efficient resource allocation. Although market prices often fail to fully account for factors such as environmental impacts and long-term scarcity value, they nevertheless embody a considerable amount of information and are the primary guideposts for suppliers and consumers.
Weissbrod, Richard; Barron, William
Markets for power in the United States : an interim assessment
The transition to competitive wholesale and retail markets for electricity in the U.S. has been a difficult and contentious process. This paper examines the progress that has been made in the evolution of wholesale and ...
Source: EPA�s CEMS. Electricity Load Distribution 2.0e-04 NoLoad Figure 2a: Electricity load distribution (in MWh) withreal-time pricing Electricity Load Distribution 2.0e-04 All
Spoilt for Choice? The Costs and Benefits of Opening UK Residential Markets
Residential Energy Markets Catherine Waddams Price, CentreResidential Energy Markets Catherine Waddams Price * Centre
Waddams Price, Catherine
Rates and technologies for mass-market demand response
Roger. 2002. Using Demand Response to Link Wholesale andfor advanced metering, demand response, and dynamic pricing.EPRI. 2001. Managing Demand-Response To Achieve Multiple
Herter, Karen; Levy, Roger; Wilson, John; Rosenfeld, Arthur
investment, behaviour, energy price, consumers Abstract �suggest that raising energy prices�such as in the form ofconsumers actually �see� energy prices and are therefore
Integrating Energy Markets: Does Sequencing Matter?
and conduct that privatization had set in train. The first, in 1993, was the ending of the coal contracts with British Coal, and a resulting crisis in the coal industry as it became clear that gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines offered an attractive vehicle... for entry into a prospectively very profitable industry. The second, in 1994, was the finding by the Office of Electricity Regulation, Offer, that the price-cost margin had risen above the level consistent with a competitive wholesale market. Offer imposed a...
Neuhoff, Karsten; Newbery, David
An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios
reaction of energy markets to higher fuel prices. Combinedreaction of energy markets to higher fuel prices. Other Highin spot market prices (note California Energy Commission.
Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark
about natural gas supply and demand. As a result, someCalibrating natural gas supply and demand conditions withelectricity and natural gas markets, demand-side management
Determining the effects on residential electricity prices and carbon emissions of electricity market restructuring in Alberta.
??When electricity restructuring initiatives were introduced in Alberta, and finalized with the institution of retail electricity market competition in 2001, it was argued that the� (more)
Jahangir, Junaid Bin
??Many firms employ Cause-Related Marketing (CRM) strategies that link product sales to the support of a charity to generate positive brand images. The global objective� (more)
Kim, Eun Kyoo
information about natural gas supply and demand. As amarket Calibrating natural gas supply and demand conditionsnation-wide natural gas market, equalizing supply with
coal supply. The natural gas supply covers six categories:renewables, oil supply, natural gas supply, natural gasnation-wide natural gas market, equalizing supply with
Optimal spot market inventory strategies in the presence of cost and price risk
Optimal spot market inventory strategies in the presence ofeither increase or decrease inventory by buying or sellingof actively managing inventory during the period rather than
Guo, X.; Kaminsky, P.; Tomecek, P.; Yuen, M.
Gasoline price data systems
Timely observation on prices of gasoline at the wholesale and retail level by geographical area can serve several purposes: (1) to facilitate the monitoring of compliance with controls on distributor margins; (2) to indicate changes in the competitive structure of the distribution system; (3) to measure the incidence of changes in crude oil and refiner costs on retail prices by grade of gasoline, by type of retail outlet, and by geographic area; (4) to identify anomalies in the retail pricing structure that may create incentives for misfueling; and (5) to provide detailed time series data for use in evaluating conservation response to price changes. In order to provide the needed data for these purposes, the following detail on gasoline prices and characteristics of the sampling procedure appear to be appropriate: (1) monthly sample observations on wholesale and retail prices by gasoline grade and type of wholesale or retail dealer, together with volume weights; (2) sample size sufficient to provide detail by state and large cities; (3) responses to be tabulated and reports provided within 30 days after date of observation; and (4) a quick response sampling procedure that can provide weekly data, at least at the national level, when needed in time of rapidly changing prices. Price detail by state is suggested due to its significance for administrative purposes and since gasoline consumption data are estimated by state from other sources. Price detail for large cities are suggested in view of their relevancy as problem areas for vehicle emissions, reflecting one of the analytical uses of the data. In this report, current reporting systems and data on gasoline prices are reviewed and evaluated in terms of the needs outlined above. Recommendations are made for ways to fill the gaps in existing data systems to meet these needs.
California's Electricity Crisis: A Market Apart?
Competition Policy in the U.S. Electricity Industry."Electricity Deregulation: Choices and Challenges. J. GriffinFor California Wholesale Electricity Markets. � Docket No.
On martingale measures and pricing for continuous bond-stock market with stochastic bond
This paper studies pricing of stock options for the case when the evolution of the risk-free assets or bond is stochastic. We show that, in the typical scenario, the martingale measure is not unique, that there are non-replicable claims, and that the martingale prices can vary significantly; for instance, for a European put option, any positive real number is a martingale price for some martingale measure. In addition, the second moment of the hedging error for a strategy calculated via a given martingale measure can take any arbitrary positive value under some equivalent measure. Some reasonable choices of martingale measures are suggested, including a measure that ensures local risk minimizing hedging strategy.
Dokuchaev, Nikolai
A Survey of Utility Experience with Real Time Pricing
than the RTP energy price, volatile market prices provide noof the market price for financially firm energy (quoted aof energy that could be purchased at market prices that were
Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Neenan, Bernie
Analysis of leaded and unleaded gasoline pricing. Final report
This report summarizes the evaluation of the cost price relation between the two fuels. The original scope of work identified three separate categories of effort: Gather and organize available data on the wholesale and retail prices of gasoline at a national level for the past 5 years. Using the data collected in Subtask 1, develop models of pricing practices that aid in explaining retail markups and price differentials for different types and grades of gasoline at different retail outlets in the current gasoline market. Using the data from Subtask 1 and the analysis framework from Subtask 2, analyze the likely range of future retail markups and price differentials for different grades of leaded and unleaded gasoline. The report is organized in a format that is different than suggested by the subtasks outlined above. The first section provides a characterization of the problem - data available to quantify cost and price of the fuels as well as issues that directly affect this relationship. The second section provides a discussion of issues likely to affect this relation in the future. The third section postulates a model that can be used to quantify the relation between fuels, octane levels, costs and prices.
Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.
Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan
1977-1978 HEATING OIL PRICES II-1 II-3 II-3 Wholesale PricesI-7 ANALYSIS 01:' Hm1E HEATING OIL PRICES FOR THE 1977-1978regarding No. 2 heating oil price data for the 1977-1978
Hopelain, D.G.
What are the different coal prices published by EIA? - FAQ - U ...
What are the different coal prices published by EIA? EIA publishes various coal prices including futures prices, mine prices, captive and open market sales prices ...
What are the different coal prices published by EIA? - FAQ - U.S ...
CPI anticipates price benefits in an open electricity market - but utilities `will erect roadblocks`
Chemical manufacturers and industrial gas firms welcome the coming deregulation of electricity because the change offers them competitive choice in power supplies. They anticipate price benefits like those that have flowed from natural gas deregulation, which feed from manufacturers to bypass local utilities and shop for their own fuel supplies.
Pospisil, R.
Yes prices per square foot indicating that the cost effectper square foot and more variance in precipitation has a statistically significant positive effect on operating costsper square foot of office buildings that sold in arm-length-transactions between 2001 and 2010 on energy costs,
the wholesale market in hour h, and ,Borenstein, S. , 2008. The Market Value and Cost of SolarEto, J. , 2011. Mass Market Demand Response and Variable
in wholesale energy markets. Progress in Photovoltaics:The Economics of Energy Market Transformation Programs. TheCalifornia's current energy market, for example, allows
RESEARCH Article t Video market data for calves andWe used 11 years of data from video auction sales across thesales information from video auctions because they operate
is on the rise, natural gas demand is expected to grow 2.4%has resulted in higher natural gas demand and volatility andelectricity and natural gas markets, demand-side management
2003). Balancing Natural Gas Policy - Fueling the Demands ofThis lead to the Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) in 1978 whichnatural gas markets, demand-side management programs, development of renewable sources, and environmental policies. �
1 1.1 History of Natural Gaspdf/table13.pdf> History of Natural Gas Regulation TheUnderstanding the history of the natural gas market helps to
Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline.of the Market for Natural Gas Futures. Energy Journal 16 (Modeling Forum. 2003. Natural Gas, Fuel Diversity and North
Price Determination of Electricity in a Competitive Environment: Reaching Profitable Electricity Customers with Market Power
This report studies and develops techniques for profitable generation company operation in the competitive /deregulated environment. Specifically it investigates how market power can be used to reach the high-profit segment of the customer-base. The first part of the report is primarily concerned with methods and theory. The competitive market framework assumed for this research is presented. The basic auctions used, and the optimization techniques used to implement them, are explained. Extensions to the...
The Role of Demand Response in Default Service Pricing
day-ahead energy market, which publishes hourly prices by 4:energy market, to which customers can refer to estimate real time market prices.energy market provide customers with a more compelling incentive for price
Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices
On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and other fuel prices. Finally, we caution readers about drawing inferences or conclusions based solely on this memo in isolation: to place the information contained herein within its proper context, we strongly encourage readers interested in this issue to read through our previous, more-detailed studies, available at http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf.
Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan
s Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Market. � AmericanCompetition Policy in the U.S. Electricity Industry. �Electricity Restructuring: Choices and Challenges. J. Gri?en
Transmission Price Risk Management
This report is concerned with the financial risks that arise from the uncertain price of transmission service in restructured or competitive electricity markets. These risks are most severe in markets with locational pricing (LMP), but they also exist in more traditionally organized electricity markets. This report has two main purposes. The first is to review the existing mathematical models of electricity price formation in spot and forward markets that may be helpful as the foundations for developing ...
Principle-agent Incentives, Excess Caution, and Market Inefficiency: Evidence from Utility Regulation
Decision Given the natural gas market structure, an LDC has2.1. Market Structure The wholesale natural gas industry can
Borenstein, Severin; Busse, Meghan; Kellog, Ryan
Principal-agent incentives, excess caution, and market inefficiency: Evidence from utility regulation
Borenstein, Severin; Busse, Meghan; KELLOGG, RYAN M
Light-Heavy Price Difference Varies
Light-Heavy Price Difference Varies ; Function of Crude Market Factors ; Function of Conversion Capacity ; Function of Product Market Factors
Sep Figure 6: Energy market clearing prices CALPX $/MW $/MWbelow or above the price of the energy market that they mayreal-time energy) markets were subject to a price cap of $
Changes in energy markets reduce regional effects of energy price movements
Changes in energy prices are having more equal effects on the residents of different regions than previously as consumption patterns adjust to natural gas deregulation and higher energy costs. Regions with a higher proportion of energy use, such as New England, have dropped their per capita consumption rates and have changed their mix of fuels. The extent of fuel switching becomes more apparent if electricity consumption is apportioned to the fuel used to generate power. Comparisons between the New England, East North Central, and West North Central regions show a decline in oil consumption for each and an increase in electricity use. 2 figures.
Schmidt, R.H.; Dunstan, R.H.
Forecast Prices
Notes: Notes: Prices have already recovered from the spike, but are expected to remain elevated over year-ago levels because of the higher crude oil prices. There is a lot of uncertainty in the market as to where crude oil prices will be next winter, but our current forecast has them declining about $2.50 per barrel (6 cents per gallon) from today's levels by next October. U.S. average residential heating oil prices peaked at almost $1.50 as a result of the problems in the Northeast this past winter. The current forecast has them peaking at $1.08 next winter, but we will be revisiting the outlook in more detail next fall and presenting our findings at the annual Winter Fuels Conference. Similarly, diesel prices are also expected to fall. The current outlook projects retail diesel prices dropping about 14 cents per gallon
Use of Incremental Pricing in Coal Supply and Transportation Agreements to Achieve Power Sales: Report Series of Fuel and Power Market Integration
Increased power market competition is transforming into increased fuel supply competition. This report examines the role that "incremental pricing" for coal supply and transportation services plays in permitting power generators to achieve greater power sales. Surprisingly, the outlook for using such mechanisms for this purpose is more restricted than one might expect.
Gasoline Prices
Gasoline Prices Gasoline Price Data Sign showing gasoline prices Local Prices: Find the cheapest gasoline prices in your area. State & Metro Area Prices: Average prices from AAA's...
Transportation Market Distortions
Transport Prices and Markets, Victoria Transport PolicySurvey: Survey Suggests Market-Based Vision of Smart Growth,G. 1996. Roads in a Market Economy, Avebury (Aldershot).
Litman, Todd
Integrating Small Scale Distributed Generation into a Deregulated Market: Control Strategies and Price Feedback
Small scale power generating technologies, such as gas turbines, small hydro turbines, photovoltaics, wind turbines and fuel cells, are gradually replacing conventional generating technologies, for various applications, in the electric power system. The industry restructuring process in the United States is exposing the power sector to market forces, which is creating competitive structures for generation and alternative regulatory structures for the transmission and distribution systems. The potentially conflicting economic and technical demands of the new, independent generators introduce a set of significant uncertainties. What balance between market forces and centralized control will be found to coordinate distribution system operations? How will the siting of numerous small scale generators in distribution feeders impact the technical operations and control of the distribution system? Who will provide ancillary services (such as voltage support and spinning reserves) in the new competitive environment? This project investigates both the engineering and market integration of distributed generators into the distribution system. On the technical side, this project investigates the frequency performance of a distribution system that has multiple small scale generators. Using IEEE sample distribution systems and new dynamic generator models, this project develops general methods for
Judith Cardell; Marija Ili?; Richard D. Tabors
What Is Price Volatility
What Is Price Volatility? What Is Price Volatility? The term "price volatility" is used to describe price fluctuations of a commodity. Volatility is measured by the day-to-day percentage difference in the price of the commodity. The degree of variation, not the level of prices, defines a volatile market. Since price is a function of supply and demand, it follows that volatility is a result of the underlying supply and demand characteristics of the market. Therefore, high levels of volatility reflect extraordinary characteristics of supply and/or demand. Prices of basic energy (natural gas, electricity, heating oil) are generally more volatile than prices of other commodities. One reason that energy prices are so volatile is that many consumers are extremely limited in their ability to substitute other fuels when the price, of natural gas
Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices
Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices Insights into Spring 2008 Gasoline Prices EIA released a new analytical report entitled Motor Gasoline Market Spring 2007 and Implications for Spring 2008. It includes a discussion of scheduled refinery outages in 2008 prepared in accordance with Section 804 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, which requires EIA to review and analyze information on such outages from commercial reporting services and assess to their expected effects on the price and supply of gasoline. Changes in wholesale gasoline prices relative to crude oil are determined by the tightness between gasoline supply (production and net imports) and demand. Expectations for U.S. gasoline supply relative to demand are for a more favorable situation in January through May 2008 than was the case in the comparable 2007 period. Demand growth, which varies seasonally and depends on economic factors, is expected to slow. New gasoline supply is affected by refinery outages, refinery run decisions, and import variations. Planned refinery outages for January through May 2008 are lower than for the same period in 2007. Given lower planned outages and assuming the return of unplanned outages to more typical levels, including the return of BP's Texas City refinery to full operation, gasoline production could increase between 100 and 200 thousand barrels per day over last year's level, depending on the market incentives. In addition, ethanol use, which adds to gasoline supply, is expected to continue to increase. Considering the uncertainty in all the gasoline supply components, there is little likelihood of events combining in 2008 to lead to the kind of tight supply downstream from crude oil markets seen in spring 2007. In summary, refinery outage and import impacts should contribute less to gasoline price increases in 2008 than in 2007. If all of the low-range estimates for supply occurred, total gasoline supply would increase about 200 thousand barrels per day (Figure S1). However, record crude oil prices are nonetheless pushing current and expected gasoline prices to record levels.
Market Evolution: Wholesale Electricity Market Design for 21st...
Miller, Michael Milligan, Erik Ela, Douglas Arent, and Aaron Bloom National Renewable Energy Laboratory Matthew Futch IBM Juha Kiviluoma and Hannele Holtinnen VTT Technical...
energy into the restructured markets behave as price takersEnergy Clearing Price (ECP) for the New England market priceISO at below market prices. nuclear energy sources. Unlike
natural gas prices), reversed this long-term trend in 2009gas market. 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report 4. Price, Cost, and Performance Trends